Mary Anne Hawke: "The San Diego Phenology Project" - California ...

San Diego County
Phenology Project
Mary Ann
Hawke, PhD
Director of
Research,
Geodactics

The Future
Number of days >100 degrees F
actually recorded
for 1961-1979
Number of >100F days predicted
by the IPCC hi emission scenario
for 2080-2099
Source: Sierra magazine, Sept/Oct 2011 pg.18 www.sierraclub.org/sierra/201109/grapple2.aspx

Climate Change Here
•
The Chula
Vista weather
station shows a
5 o F increase

Phenology and Climate

The Issue
• Flowering plants provide
convincing evidence of a response
to global warming
• Disruption of the synchrony
between the timing of flowering
and activity of insect pollinators (or
migrating birds) is a serious
concern
• Studies that have been successful
elsewhere, have not yet been tried
here in our Mediterranean climate

Relevant Studies
• Primack et al. (2004)
• Compared flowering time of
plants growing at the Arnold
Arboretum in Boston, MA
with 372 historic records of
the same plants.
• Boston experienced a 1.5°C
increase in mean annual
temperature since 1885.
• The study shows that the
plants studied are flowering
8 days earlier as a response
to changing temperatures

The Questions
Are San Diego County plants responding to
climate change Answer: we don’t know!
Which plants are showing a strong, measurable
phenological response
What is the baseline against
which we can measure change
How should we focus future
monitoring efforts
Solving the puzzle requires adequate, local, scientific records
that go back in time

Specimen Collections
Plant Specimens Are
Snapshots of our Past
There are over 60,000 plant
specimens from San Diego
County in the SD Herbarium
collection dating to the 1800s.

San Diego Collections
• 92,252 records collected
in SD County
• 48,198 in SD Herbarium
• 9,000 Plant Atlas
specimens
• 33,256 from Consortium
of California Herbaria
• Most have now been
georeferenced
CCH
36%
SD Plant Atlas
11%
SD Herbarium
53%

Using Plant Specimens to
Assess Climate Change
• The extensive collection
of historic plant
specimens from San
Diego County in the SD
Herbarium was examined,
to investigate plant
responses to regional
climate change.
Ceanothus verrucosus voucher
specimen collected in 1935

Plants and Climate Change
• Capture and analyze all available
records of herbarium specimens
collected from San Diego County

Seeing Climate through the Lives of
Plants: Using Herbarium Specimen Data to
Assess Climate Change in San Diego County
Jeannie Gregory
Mary Ann Hawke, Layla Aerne Hains, Anne Fege
Funded by The Blasker-Rose-Miah Fund
of The San Diego Foundation

Plants as Bioindicators of Climate Change
Flowering plants provide convincing evidence of a response to
global climate change
Disruption in synchrony of the timing of flowering and insects or
birds may be a serious concern
Are San Diego County plants
responding to climate change
Which plants are showing a
clear, measurable response
Do the results of other studies
apply in Mediterranean climates
Can this help focus future
monitoring efforts
Mary Ann Hawke Ph.D
Funded by The Blasker-Rose-Miah Fund of The San Diego Foundation

Methods: Use Herbarium Data to Study
Phenological Trends in San Diego
Compile plant specimen data; Obtain weather station data
Over 2282 plant species (1824 native); Screen out target spp.
Graph flowering trends over time
Statistically analyze for trends and relationship to weather data
Identify species that show clear responses to climate (for future
monitoring)
Assumptions: 1) Target species to screen; 2) Weather station
data already analyzed; 3) Plant data sufficient and consistent

Implications
Flowering plants play an essential role in local ecology – knowing
which ones to track into the future is key
Disruption in synchrony of phenological events may seriously
impact ecological systems – knowing the keystone species in San
Diego and more about linkages is required
Deciding where to best invest monitoring $$ is wise (legal drivers
do not necessarily point us to the most effective bioindicators)
More work is needed! Including a local phenology network
Phacelia
Indian Paintbrush
Chocolate Lily

Preliminary Findings
Delphinium cardinale (Ranunculaceae)
Scarlet Larkspur
Monthly Temperature (F) at San Diego WSO Airport
Delphinium cardinale
75
260
70
Mean = 69.87 F
240
220
Temperature (F)
65
60
Mean = 63.17 F
Day of Year
200
180
160
140
55
50
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
T Max
Mean
T Min
Mean
T Avg
Mean
Mean = 56.47 F
120
100
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Delphinium cardinale
Monthly Total Precipitation at San Diego WSO Airport
30
Precipitation (inches)
25
20
15
10
Mean = 10.15 inches
6
Deviation from Average Temp of 63.17F
at San Diego WSO Airport
Frequency
30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
5
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Monthly Precipitation Total
Precipitation Mean
Year
Deviation from Average Temp
4
2
0
-2
-4
Day of Year
-6
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Project webpage at www.sdnhm.org/climatechange

Communicating Climate
• Involves 12 science centers across the US
• Focuses on local indicators of climate change in each
community
• Fosters innovative partnerships between research centers,
the media, and science centers (Reuben H. Fleet)
• See www.rhfleet.org/c3
Change (C3)
Ken Bowles

Citizen Science
• Project Budburst is a national field campaign for
citizen scientists to report phenological changes of
trees, shrubs, flowers, and grasses.
• The USA National Phenology Network (NPN)
monitors the influence of climate on the phenology
of plants, animals, and landscapes and provides a
place for the storage and sharing of observations.
www.usanpn.org

Plants to Monitor in SD
Evergreen Shrubs
Big Sagebrush Artemisia tridentata Asteraceae
Brittlebush Encelia farinosa var. farinosa Asteraceae
Purple-eyed Encienso Encelia farinosa var. phenicodonta Asteraceae
Broom Baccharis Baccharis sarothroides Asteraceae
California Encelia Encelia californica Asteraceae
Chamise Adenostoma fasciculatum Asteraceae
Coast CA Buckwheat Eriogonum fasciculatum var. fasciculatum Polygonaceae
Inland CA Buckwheat Eriogonum fasciculatum var. foliolosum Polygonaceae
Coastal Deerweed Lotus scoparius var. scoparius Fabaceae
Coastal Sagebrush Artemisia californica Asteraceae
Honey Mesquite Prosopis glandulosa var. torreyana Fabaceae
Laurel Sumac Malosma laurina Anacardiaceae
Lemonadeberry Rhus integrifolia Anacardiaceae
Mohave Yucca Yucca schidigera Agavaceae
Parish's Goldenbush Ericameria parishii Asteraceae
SD Monkey Flower Mimulus aurantiacus Phrymaceae
Spreading Goldenbush Isocoma menziesii var. menziesii
Asteraceae
Toyon Heteromeles arbutifolia Rosaceae

Plants to Monitor in SD
Deciduous Shrubs
Blue Elderberry Sambucus mexicana (Sambucus nigra) Adoxaceae
Ocotillo Fouquieria splendens ssp. splendens Fouquieriaceae
Western Choke Cherry Prunus virginiana var. demissa Rosaceae
Herbs
Blue Dicks Dichelostemma capitatum ssp. capitatum Themidaceae
Few-Flowered Blue Dicks Dichelostemma capitatum ssp. pauciflorum Themidaceae
Desert Lily Hesperocallis undulata Liliaceae
Western Ragweed * Ambrosia psilostachya Asteraceae
Wild Turnip Brassica tournefortii Brassicaceae
Yarrow Achillea millefolium Asteraceae
Common Dandelion * Taraxacum officinale Asteraceae
Wild Cucumber Marah macrocarpus Cucurbitaceae
California Poppy Eschscholzia californica Papaveraceae
* National Phenology Network Calibration Species

Plant Profiles

Contacts
• Mary Ann Hawke - Geodactics at
hawkema@gmail.com
• Debbie DeRoma - RH Fleet at
ddroma@rhfleet.org
• Reuben H. Fleet Science Center,
Communicating Climate Change (C3)
www.rhfleet.org/c3
• Search for San Diego County
Phenology Project on Facebook

Thank you!
• Resources
• www.sdnhm.org/climatechange
• www.geodactics.org
• www.rhfleet.org/c3/
• www.usanpn.org