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Navy story.indd - Mars Group Kenya Publications

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zambia<br />

The Titanic sails at dawn<br />

The opposition offered its voters refuge on Noah’s Ark, but it sank<br />

and Mwanawasa is back<br />

The polls were wrong and<br />

Michael Sata lost to incumbent<br />

President Levy Patrick<br />

Mwanawasa, whose solid 42 per cent<br />

of the vote came overwhelmingly<br />

from rural areas. In some large towns<br />

Sata’s supporters clashed with security<br />

forces when late returns showed the<br />

extent of his defeat, but things soon<br />

quietened down. Hakainde Sammy<br />

Hichilema of the three-party United<br />

Democratic Alliance took 25 per cent<br />

with a huge majority in his native<br />

Southern Province. Former Vice-<br />

President General Godfrey Miyanda<br />

took two per cent and Kenneth<br />

Kamwili Ngondo managed less than<br />

one per cent.<br />

Of the 3.9 million registered<br />

voters, 2.7 mn. took part, a turnout<br />

of 70 per cent, one of the highest in<br />

recent years. Sata’s Patriotic Front<br />

(PF) party was planning to petition<br />

against the election result following<br />

claims that some continuencies<br />

overcounted Mwanawasa’s votes and<br />

constituencies in Lusaka and the<br />

Copperbelt undercounted Sata’s. But<br />

Sata said on 17 October he would<br />

refuse to sign the petition because it<br />

worked against his new tactics.<br />

The next five years In<br />

his inaugural speech on 3 October,<br />

Mwanawasa called for national<br />

unity, praised his opponents and<br />

urged them to consider working<br />

with him because they raised<br />

fundamental issues which cannot be<br />

ignored. The ceremony, attended by<br />

Presidents Hifikepunye Pohamba<br />

of Namibia and Jakaya Kikwete<br />

of Tanzania, was held under tight<br />

security. Mwanawasa acknowledged<br />

Sata’s campaign skills and shortly<br />

afterwards left for a holiday to ‘reflect<br />

on his next five years’. Some doubt<br />

whether he can complete his second<br />

term in office. He suffered a minor<br />

stroke in April and may leave the dayto-day<br />

running of government to his<br />

new Vice-President Rupiah Bwezani<br />

Banda. His energetic wife Maureen<br />

Kakubo Mwanawasa is tipped to<br />

take a leading role.<br />

The capital, Lusaka and Copperbelt<br />

provinces voted massively for Sata<br />

who also picked up a huge amount<br />

of votes in Central, Luapula and<br />

Northern provinces, strongholds of<br />

the ruling Movement for Multiparty<br />

Democracy (MMD). Mwanawasa’s<br />

former Vice-President Lupando<br />

Katoloshi Mwape and his Defence<br />

Minister Wamundila Muliokela lost<br />

their parliamentary seats.<br />

The decisive votes came from<br />

Western, North-Western and Eastern<br />

provinces, where Mwanawasa’s party<br />

scooped up most of the parliamentary<br />

seats. The MMD’s good performance<br />

in rural areas rewarded its sound<br />

agriculture policies: steady supplies of<br />

fertiliser and farm inputs along with<br />

an effective crop marketing system,<br />

promoted by the Food Reserve Agency.<br />

The President’s vote was substantial<br />

even in areas where he came second.<br />

Mwanawasa says the Bemba<br />

people (one of whom is<br />

Sata) have chosen to be<br />

in opposition and he has<br />

promoted many Eastern<br />

politicians. The new<br />

Vice-President Rupiah<br />

Banda, 69, served as<br />

Foreign Minister under ex-President<br />

Kenneth Kaunda and helped turn<br />

Eastern province from its traditional<br />

support for Kaunda to the MMD.<br />

Sata and Hichilema both disputed<br />

the result but said they would not<br />

challenge it in the Supreme Court.<br />

Sata claims that there was systematic<br />

vote-rigging. Verification, especially<br />

on the Copperbelt, has shown that his<br />

vote was under-recorded. Hichilema<br />

claims the same pattern in Southern<br />

province. Foreign observers gave the<br />

results a clean bill of health, but local<br />

monitors raised glaring disparities<br />

and demanded verification. In some<br />

instances, the recorded vote for the<br />

presidency was far less than that for<br />

the simultaneous parliamentary and<br />

local government elections.<br />

Sata’s parallel life Sata’s<br />

PF gained total control of the main<br />

urban municipalities in Lusaka,<br />

Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern<br />

provinces, where he says he will run a<br />

parallel structure of local government<br />

to implement his campaign promises.<br />

He announced reductions of local<br />

property taxes, asked his lawyers to<br />

review a lease between Lusaka City<br />

Council and Chinese investors to<br />

give Zambians control of a big market<br />

and urged Zambians to apply for<br />

allocations of land within the city.<br />

Mwanawasa threatens to jail<br />

Sata for treason if he tries to run a<br />

parallel government: ‘Sata is pushing<br />

his luck too far. I will sort him<br />

out’. Legally, local government is<br />

autonomous, though the minister of<br />

local government may dissolve nonperforming<br />

councils. Mwanawasa<br />

may consider dissolving PF councils<br />

and calling by-elections; he says<br />

‘Zambians forget easily’ and may not<br />

vote for Sata.<br />

Plenty of legal battles are<br />

anticipated. Mwanawasa’s new<br />

Minister of Local Government, Sylvia<br />

Masebo, was politically groomed by<br />

Sata when she was Deputy Mayor of<br />

Lusaka and is a close personal friend<br />

of Wynter Kabimba, the PF’s Shadow<br />

Minister of Local Government, who<br />

‘Sata is pushing his luck too<br />

far. I will sort him out.’<br />

has been assigned to supervise the PFrun<br />

councils. The friendly rivals may<br />

work for peace on local government.<br />

After the election Sata’s militant<br />

supporters overpowered the riot<br />

police, torched vehicles and took<br />

control of various slums in Lusaka<br />

and Copperbelt; armed soldiers were<br />

called in, and the violence ended when<br />

Sata appealed for calm. Most security<br />

personnel voted for Sata, including at<br />

a State House polling station where<br />

the presidential guards and their<br />

families vote. Military barracks also<br />

voted for the opposition and transfers<br />

are expected in the defence forces.<br />

On 8 October, at a football match<br />

against South Africa at the 35,000-<br />

seat Independence Stadium, fans<br />

showed their support for Sata during<br />

<br />

2 0 O c t o b e r 2 0 0 6 - V o l 4 7 - N ° 2 1 - A f r i c a C o n f i d e n t i a l

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