Caribbean Compass Yachting Magazine February 2015

WHAT’S ON MY MIND…
ANALYSIS
PARALYSIS
by Linda Lane Thornton
FEBRUARY 2015 CARIBBEAN COMPASS PAGE 40
FOR SALE
23’ Atlantic 245WA Fishing Boat
Specifications:
Model: 245WA Atlantic
Year: 2009
Length: 23’ 4”
Beam: 8’ 6”
Minimum Draft: 1’
Engine/ Fuel type:
Twin gas Yamaha 115hp
Mechanics:
Twin Outboard Motors
Communications:
Standard Horizon DSC VHF
Engine Hours: Under 10
Additional Features:
Hydraulic Steering
Navigation Lights
Radio/ CD Player
Microwave
Asking Price: US$30,000.00 (ONO)
Serious offers only - Call: (784) 488-8465
HELP TRACK HUMPBACK WHALE MIGRATION
Your contributions of tail fluke photographs of humpback whales
from the Caribbean region are critical for conservation efforts.
INTERESTED in Helping Go to www.CARIBTAILS.org
There comes a time in anyone’s cruising life when a longer passage is called for, a
passage where weather forecasts may be unobtainable and where one has to rely on
routing charts or the experience of others. In the autumn it could be the hop across
the Atlantic from the Canary Islands or Cape Verdes to the Eastern Caribbean, or
perhaps to head straight for St. Maarten or the Virgin Islands. In spring, it’s the passage
out of the hurricane belt: northeast towards the Azores, or along the coast of
South America, perhaps towards the Rio Dulce, for the summer. Consideration of
weather patterns and predictions is a vital part of passage planning. In any event,
there will be a certain amount of soul-searching, looking at usual weather patterns,
listening to others who have made the same or similar passages, reading what the
experts say.
The trouble with all of this, of course, is that routing charts and the like really
describe climate, whereas what you’re going to get is weather, climate being loosely
defined as “average weather”.
The wind rose on a routing chart may say that 75 percent of the time the wind is
from the northeast at 15 knots, but that means that for 25 percent of the time it
isn’t. And therein lies many a tale.
The same is true for current roses: ocean currents like the Gulf Stream do not
“always” do the same thing, i.e. flow northeast along the coast at three to four knots.
How do I know One reads that the Gulf Stream runs at up to four knots along the
East Coast of the US, but sailing northwest in relatively light airs and flying the
drifter, our respectable 4.5 knots through the water was reduced to 2.5 knots over
the ground: we’d run into one of the Gulf Stream’s occasional south-curling eddies.
It can do your head in! So-and-so says one should do this, but Thingummy says
to do the opposite. This book gives one set of advice; that book another. You end up
with what pilot-book author Rod Heikell calls “analysis paralysis” and don’t know
whether you’re coming or going, whether to leave tomorrow or wait a week.
Above: The author
ponders, ‘Leave tomorrow
or wait a week’
PICK UP!
Ahoy, Compass Readers! When in St. Vincent & the Grenadines, pick up your
free monthly copy of the Caribbean Compass at any of these locations (advertisers
in this issue appear in bold):
ST. VINCENT
Barefoot Yacht Charters
Blue Lagoon Hotel & Marina
Cobblestone Restaurant
BEQUIA
Bequia Tourism Assn.
Fernando’s Hideaway
Frangipani Hotel
Piper Marine
Post Office/Customs & Immigration
Wallace & Co.
MUSTIQUE
Basil’s Bar
Corea’s Food Store
Mustique Moorings
Mystic Water Sports
UNION ISLAND
Bougainvilla
Captain Gourmet
Clifton Beach Hotel
Grenadines Dive
Lambi’s Restaurant
Lulley’s Tackle
Tourist Center
Right: ‘At the end of the
day, you plan for the
worst, hope for the best
and set off…’
In addition to listening to others talk of their passage(s) it is interesting to ask how
often they have made it. I have undertaken only three transatlantic crossings from
the Canaries to the Caribbean — one in December, one in January and one in March
— and they have each been quite different, yet all within the norm.
Having spent last summer cruising Chesapeake Bay, by November we were in
Beaufort, North Carolina. The seven-day grib file that I downloaded on November
10th, 2014 showed two gales on the way. One would reach Beaufort on November
15th – 16th while the second, far larger, was brewing off the Texas coast. Even a
cursory analysis showed that if we didn’t leave by November 12th we would possibly
be stuck in Beaufort for at least another week, putting us uncomfortably near our
visa expiry date of November 22nd. (I had tried to extend our visas online but had
given up when I realized how much paper documentation was required, all of which
was back in England. It was easier to leave!) By leaving on November 12th and heading
southeast as fast as we could, we would hopefully miss the unpleasant winds of
both gales. In addition to the strong winds, the gales were bringing icy weather down
from the north. Our friends who stayed on in Beaufort woke up to ice on the deck a
few days after we left.
We found, as usual, that the grib files didn’t quite predict the weather, but we also
found that by looking at the weather we’d got then moving the cursor around the file,
we could see what the weather had done since the download and hence get an idea
of what we could expect in the next 24 hours. Weather fronts can stall; high pressure
systems may decide to move south instead of north; a low pressure system may give
up the ghost and decide to fill instead of deepen; an insignificant low can suddenly
take on a fury of its own — chaos theory rules.
At the end of the day, you plan for the worst, hope for the best and set off with that
excited patter in your tummy that means, “I wonder what it’ll be like” Great fun,
isn’t it