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Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s <strong>Ideas</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>Twenty</strong>-<strong>first</strong> <strong>Century</strong><br />

Presented by:<br />

Gipsie B. Ranney<br />

April 20, 2012<br />

<strong>In2</strong>:InTh<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Network 2012 Forum<br />

<strong>Part</strong> 1


The System of Profound Knowledge<br />

Appreciation for<br />

a System<br />

Theory of<br />

Knowledge<br />

Knowledge about<br />

Variation<br />

Psychology


The System of Profound Knowledge<br />

Appreciation for<br />

a System<br />

Theory of<br />

Knowledge<br />

Knowledge about<br />

Variation<br />

Psychology


A System Versus a Heap<br />

A System<br />

A Heap<br />

Interconnect<strong>in</strong>g parts<br />

function<strong>in</strong>g as a whole.<br />

A collection of parts<br />

Changed if you take away pieces<br />

or add more pieces. If you cut a<br />

system <strong>in</strong> half, you do not get two<br />

smaller systems, but a damaged<br />

system that probably will not function.<br />

Properties are unchanged<br />

whe<strong>the</strong>r you add or take away<br />

pieces. When you halve a heap,<br />

you get two smaller heaps.<br />

The parts are connected, work<br />

toge<strong>the</strong>r, and may not work alone.<br />

The parts are not connected<br />

and can function separately.


An Organization Viewed as a System<br />

Needs<br />

Design &<br />

Redesign<br />

Customer<br />

feedback<br />

Customer<br />

research<br />

Inputs Production processes Distribution Customers<br />

Support<br />

Adapted from Figure 6, p. 58<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.


Appreciation for a System<br />

• Importance of aim(s)<br />

• Cause and effect are often separated <strong>in</strong> time and<br />

location<br />

• Optimization of parts doesn’t necessarily optimize <strong>the</strong><br />

whole<br />

• Interdependence and <strong>in</strong>teraction


Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s Recommended Aim<br />

“The aim proposed here for any organization is for<br />

everybody to ga<strong>in</strong> – stockholders, employees, suppliers,<br />

customers, community, <strong>the</strong> environment – over <strong>the</strong> long<br />

term.<br />

For example, with respect to employees, <strong>the</strong> aim might be to<br />

provide for <strong>the</strong>m good management, opportunities for<br />

tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g and education for fur<strong>the</strong>r growth, plus o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

contributors to joy <strong>in</strong> work and quality of life.”<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 51


Two Statements of Aim (Purpose)<br />

•To provide <strong>the</strong> best possible care to those need<strong>in</strong>g<br />

healthcare <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> community.<br />

•To improve <strong>the</strong> health of <strong>the</strong> community, now and <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

future.


A System of Schools<br />

Aims: “growth and development of children, and<br />

preparation for <strong>the</strong>m to contribute to <strong>the</strong> prosperity<br />

of society.”<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 62.


Narrow Objectives<br />

Without <strong>in</strong>tervention<br />

Sales<br />

Time<br />

With <strong>in</strong>tervention<br />

Sales<br />

Time


Narrow Objectives<br />

Establish<strong>in</strong>g narrow functional objectives without<br />

consideration of <strong>the</strong> potential effects on o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

parts of <strong>the</strong> organization can suboptimize <strong>the</strong><br />

organization as a whole.


Perversity Pr<strong>in</strong>ciple<br />

“If you try to improve <strong>the</strong> performance of a system of<br />

people, mach<strong>in</strong>es, and procedures by sett<strong>in</strong>g<br />

numerical goals for <strong>the</strong> improvement of <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />

parts of <strong>the</strong> system, <strong>the</strong> system will defeat your<br />

efforts and you will pay a price where you least<br />

expect it.”<br />

- Myron Tribus


A Purchas<strong>in</strong>g Manager’s Edict<br />

Reduce purchase price of each and every part <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

product by 10%.


Emergent Properties<br />

A system functions as a whole, so it has properties above<br />

and beyond those of <strong>the</strong> components that comprise it.<br />

These are known as emergent properties.<br />

Some emergent properties<br />

piano music<br />

three-dimensional vision<br />

a ra<strong>in</strong>bow<br />

movement of a car<br />

consciousness<br />

profit


Emergence


Emergent Properties of Systems<br />

The components of a human activity system should not<br />

be expected to work <strong>in</strong>dividually and <strong>in</strong>dependently on<br />

an emergent property of <strong>the</strong> entire system.


Improvement<br />

An improvement team reported on <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

improvement project.<br />

Their improvement was to move an expense from<br />

<strong>the</strong>ir department to ano<strong>the</strong>r department.


Robert Rod<strong>in</strong>, CEO, Marshall Industries<br />

Reward Systems<br />

• Our salespeople would ship ahead of <strong>the</strong> schedule to make a number or w<strong>in</strong> a prize…<br />

• We held customer returns. We had to make sure that <strong>the</strong> returns com<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> did not get<br />

counted aga<strong>in</strong>st sales <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> period for which we were try<strong>in</strong>g to hit <strong>the</strong> numbers. So, if<br />

a customer returned items, sometimes our salespeople would put <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> trunks of<br />

<strong>the</strong>ir cars and keep <strong>the</strong>m <strong>the</strong>re for a few weeks until <strong>the</strong>y could be counted as returns<br />

for next period. In <strong>the</strong> meantime, if we needed that <strong>in</strong>ventory for ano<strong>the</strong>r customer,<br />

we’d have to buy unnecessary stock.<br />

• We opened bad credit accounts. Any order was a good order as far as a sales person<br />

paid on gross profit was concerned. Just book it.<br />

• We found extraord<strong>in</strong>arily creative ways to charge expenses to one ano<strong>the</strong>r’s profit and<br />

loss statements…<br />

• Our divisions hid <strong>in</strong>ventory from one ano<strong>the</strong>r…our managers devised creative ways to<br />

hide <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ventory <strong>the</strong>y wanted to hold on to for <strong>the</strong>ir own customers, sometimes even<br />

send<strong>in</strong>g it out of state <strong>in</strong> UPS trucks so that <strong>the</strong>y could honestly tell o<strong>the</strong>r divisions <strong>the</strong>y<br />

were out of stock. When <strong>the</strong>ir own customers needed <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ventory, though, it would<br />

magically reappear…<br />

Rod<strong>in</strong>, Robert, Free, Perfect, and Now, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1999.


Reward Systems<br />

X Chart - Number of Systems Sold per Month<br />

24<br />

22<br />

20<br />

18<br />

16<br />

14<br />

12<br />

10<br />

Month


Reward Systems<br />

Quarterly Totals<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

52 52 52<br />

53<br />

52<br />

53<br />

52<br />

53<br />

52<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

Quarter


Remov<strong>in</strong>g Qualified Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Resources<br />

from <strong>the</strong> Factory<br />

+<br />

Pressure to reduce<br />

manufactur<strong>in</strong>g<br />

expense<br />

Factory<br />

expense<br />

Will<strong>in</strong>gness to<br />

staff appropriately<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> factory<br />

-<br />

Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g +<br />

resources assigned<br />

to <strong>the</strong> factory<br />

+<br />

+<br />

New product & process<br />

development eng<strong>in</strong>eers<br />

solv<strong>in</strong>g factory problems<br />

+<br />

-<br />

-<br />

New product & process<br />

development resources<br />

-<br />

Design failures<br />

Delay<br />

Product & process +<br />

problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> factory


And it will fall out as <strong>in</strong> a complication of diseases, that<br />

by apply<strong>in</strong>g a remedy to one sore, you will provoke<br />

ano<strong>the</strong>r; and that which removes <strong>the</strong> one ill symptom<br />

produces o<strong>the</strong>rs . . .<br />

- Sir Thomas More, 1516


Study <strong>the</strong> System<br />

• What are <strong>the</strong> purposes of <strong>the</strong> system<br />

• What are <strong>the</strong> components of <strong>the</strong> system<br />

These may <strong>in</strong>clude targets, goals, policies, rules, rewards,<br />

communications, etc., as well as processes.<br />

• What are <strong>the</strong> external factors that may affect <strong>the</strong> system<br />

Organizational systems and subsystems operate with<strong>in</strong> larger<br />

systems.<br />

• What are <strong>the</strong> relationships among <strong>the</strong> components of <strong>the</strong> system<br />

• What are <strong>the</strong> opportunities for improvement


Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s <strong>Ideas</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>Twenty</strong>-<strong>first</strong> <strong>Century</strong><br />

Presented by:<br />

Gipsie B. Ranney<br />

April 20, 2012<br />

<strong>In2</strong>:InTh<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Network 2012 Forum<br />

<strong>Part</strong> 2


The System of Profound Knowledge<br />

Appreciation for<br />

a System<br />

Theory of<br />

Knowledge<br />

Knowledge about<br />

Variation<br />

Psychology


Theories<br />

Realize it or not, we all use <strong>the</strong>ories.<br />

“Practical men who believe <strong>the</strong>mselves to<br />

be quite exempt from any <strong>in</strong>tellectual<br />

<strong>in</strong>fluences are usually <strong>the</strong> slaves of some<br />

defunct economist.”<br />

John Maynard Keynes,<br />

The General Theory of Employment,<br />

Interest and Money


Theories<br />

• The only purpose of a bus<strong>in</strong>ess is to make money.<br />

• Every fluctuation <strong>in</strong> cost or profit or any o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

measure of performance has a specific cause.<br />

• The most important job of <strong>the</strong> employees <strong>in</strong> a<br />

department is to make <strong>the</strong> boss look good.<br />

•<br />

•<br />


Theory<br />

“ Plane Euclidean geometry served <strong>the</strong> world well for a flat<br />

earth…<br />

Use of <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>ory for a flat earth fails on this earth when<br />

man extends his horizon to bigger build<strong>in</strong>gs, and to roads<br />

that go beyond <strong>the</strong> village...<br />

It is extension of application that discloses <strong>in</strong>adequacy of<br />

a <strong>the</strong>ory, and need for revision, or even new <strong>the</strong>ory. "<br />

Dem<strong>in</strong>g, The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 102


Chanticleer


Which World Which Theory<br />

“Any <strong>the</strong>orem is true <strong>in</strong> its own world. But<br />

which world are we <strong>in</strong> Which of several<br />

worlds makes contact with ours That is<br />

<strong>the</strong> question.”<br />

Dem<strong>in</strong>g, The New Economics


Theory of Knowledge<br />

The Shewhart Cycle for Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />

The P D S A Cycle<br />

Act -- Adopt <strong>the</strong><br />

change, or abandon<br />

it, or run through<br />

<strong>the</strong> cycle aga<strong>in</strong>.<br />

A<br />

P<br />

Plan a change or<br />

a test, aimed at<br />

improvement.<br />

Study <strong>the</strong> results.<br />

What did we learn<br />

What went wrong<br />

S<br />

D<br />

Do -- Carry out <strong>the</strong><br />

change or <strong>the</strong> test<br />

(preferably on a small scale).<br />

Translation of scientific method <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> context of process and system<br />

management and improvement.


The Prediction Game<br />

Adapted from work of Tom Nolan and Lloyd Provost<br />

To illustrate<br />

- use of <strong>the</strong> PDSA cycle<br />

- role of <strong>the</strong>ory and prediction <strong>in</strong> learn<strong>in</strong>g<br />

A new technology<br />

- generates numbers<br />

Aim:<br />

- to learn about <strong>the</strong> new technology


Options<br />

° Buy <strong>in</strong>formation<br />

Cost: $1000<br />

No prediction required<br />

° Small scale test<br />

Cost: $2000<br />

Prediction required<br />

Correct - $4000 ga<strong>in</strong>,<br />

Incorrect - $4000 loss<br />

° Large scale test<br />

Cost: $4000<br />

Prediction required<br />

Correct - $8000 ga<strong>in</strong>,<br />

Incorrect - $8000 loss


The Prediction Game<br />

• Did predictions improve with repeated trials<br />

• What happened when <strong>the</strong> result agreed with <strong>the</strong><br />

prediction<br />

• What happened when <strong>the</strong> result did not agree with <strong>the</strong><br />

prediction<br />

• Was <strong>the</strong>re learn<strong>in</strong>g Did learn<strong>in</strong>g occur with or without<br />

benefit of a <strong>the</strong>ory<br />

• If we cont<strong>in</strong>ued to play <strong>the</strong> game, is <strong>the</strong>re a guarantee<br />

that <strong>the</strong> same rule would cont<strong>in</strong>ue to provide correct<br />

predictions


Often repeated statement:<br />

Examples<br />

Show me an example, so I can see that this works.<br />

“ No number of examples establishes a <strong>the</strong>ory, yet a s<strong>in</strong>gle<br />

unexpla<strong>in</strong>ed failure of a <strong>the</strong>ory requires modification or even<br />

abandonment of <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>ory.<br />

It is extension of application that discloses <strong>in</strong>adequacy of a<br />

<strong>the</strong>ory, and need for revision, or even new <strong>the</strong>ory. Aga<strong>in</strong>,<br />

without <strong>the</strong>ory, <strong>the</strong>re is noth<strong>in</strong>g to revise. Without <strong>the</strong>ory,<br />

experience has no mean<strong>in</strong>g. Without <strong>the</strong>ory, one has no<br />

questions to ask. Hence without <strong>the</strong>ory, <strong>the</strong>re is no learn<strong>in</strong>g. “<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., pp. 103-104


Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />

The Shewhart Cycle for Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />

The P D S A Cycle<br />

Act -- Adopt <strong>the</strong><br />

change, or abandon<br />

it, or run through<br />

<strong>the</strong> cycle aga<strong>in</strong>.<br />

A<br />

P<br />

Plan a change or<br />

a test, aimed at<br />

improvement.<br />

Study <strong>the</strong> results.<br />

What did we learn<br />

What went wrong<br />

S<br />

D<br />

Do -- Carry out <strong>the</strong><br />

change or <strong>the</strong> test<br />

(preferably on a small scale).


Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />

P<br />

A<br />

P<br />

D<br />

Better<br />

P<br />

A<br />

D<br />

S<br />

A<br />

D<br />

S<br />

S<br />

Time


Mental Models<br />

We have mental models <strong>in</strong> our heads. Those mental<br />

models govern what we are able to see.<br />

“We don’t see th<strong>in</strong>gs as <strong>the</strong>y are, we see <strong>the</strong>m as we are.”<br />

- Anais N<strong>in</strong>


What is this


What is this


What is this


Policies and Practices<br />

The executives of a company have company cell phones.<br />

The company requires that each user reimburse <strong>the</strong><br />

company for any use of <strong>the</strong> cellular phone for personal<br />

calls. One executive related that he wrote a check to <strong>the</strong><br />

company for $2.76 for his personal calls <strong>in</strong> one month.<br />

How much will it cost <strong>the</strong> company to process <strong>the</strong> check<br />

What assumptions lie beh<strong>in</strong>d <strong>the</strong> requirement


Policies and Practices<br />

A company has park<strong>in</strong>g for employees’ cars <strong>in</strong>side <strong>the</strong><br />

fence that surrounds <strong>the</strong> property. The personnel<br />

manager announces that, <strong>in</strong> order to protect product<br />

design secrets, random searches of employee vehicles<br />

will be carried out at <strong>the</strong> exit gates.<br />

What assumptions lie beh<strong>in</strong>d this practice<br />

What would have been useful questions to consider prior<br />

to adopt<strong>in</strong>g this practice


Best Practices<br />

Advice is often given to identify “best practices” and<br />

use <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong> your organization.<br />

Given our discussion of systems, what might be<br />

some considerations <strong>in</strong> decid<strong>in</strong>g to use a “best<br />

practice”


Theory of Knowledge<br />

“Any <strong>the</strong>orem is true <strong>in</strong> its own world. But which<br />

world are we <strong>in</strong> Which of several worlds makes<br />

contact with ours That is <strong>the</strong> question.”<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 227


Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s <strong>Ideas</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>Twenty</strong>-<strong>first</strong> <strong>Century</strong><br />

Presented by:<br />

Gipsie B. Ranney<br />

April 20, 2012<br />

<strong>In2</strong>:InTh<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Network 2012 Forum<br />

<strong>Part</strong> 3


The System of Profound Knowledge<br />

Appreciation for<br />

a System<br />

Theory of<br />

Knowledge<br />

Knowledge about<br />

Variation<br />

Psychology


Evaluat<strong>in</strong>g Performance Indicators<br />

Indicator Jan, 10<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

Unit Cost 136.60<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●


Evaluat<strong>in</strong>g Performance Indicators<br />

Indicator Dec, 09 Jan, 10<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

Unit Cost 134.80 136.60<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●


Evaluat<strong>in</strong>g Performance Indicators<br />

Indicator Jan, 09 Dec, 09 Jan, 10<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

Unit Cost 119.00 134.80 136.60<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●<br />

●●●●●●●<br />

●●●


Evaluat<strong>in</strong>g Performance Indicators<br />

Unit Cost<br />

170<br />

160<br />

150<br />

140<br />

130<br />

120<br />

110<br />

100<br />

90<br />

May-08<br />

Jul-08<br />

Sep-08<br />

Nov-08<br />

Jan-09<br />

Mar-09<br />

May-09<br />

Jul-09<br />

Sep-09<br />

Nov-09<br />

Jan-10<br />

Mar-10


Patterns of Variation<br />

Result<br />

A<br />

Time<br />

Result<br />

B<br />

Time<br />

Result<br />

C<br />

Time


Patterns of Variation<br />

Monthly Sales<br />

$<br />

800000<br />

700000<br />

600000<br />

500000<br />

400000<br />

300000<br />

200000<br />

100000<br />

0<br />

Jan-96<br />

Apr-96<br />

Jul-96<br />

Oct-96<br />

Jan-97<br />

Apr-97<br />

Jul-97<br />

Oct-97<br />

Jan-98<br />

Apr-98<br />

Jul-98<br />

Oct-98<br />

Jan-99<br />

Apr-99<br />

Jul-99<br />

Month


Patterns of Variation<br />

Average Length of Stay for a Surgical Procedure<br />

5.00<br />

4.00<br />

3.00<br />

2.00<br />

1.00<br />

0.00<br />

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24<br />

Month


Patterns of Variation<br />

Customer Satisfaction Rat<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

100<br />

95<br />

90<br />

85<br />

80<br />

75<br />

70<br />

Jul<br />

Sep<br />

Nov<br />

Jan<br />

Mar<br />

May<br />

Jul<br />

Sep<br />

Nov<br />

Jan<br />

Mar


The Statistical Control Chart<br />

Invented by physicist and statistician<br />

Walter Shewhart.<br />

Provided a means by which variation<br />

could be <strong>in</strong>terpreted and acted on<br />

appropriately.


The Statistical Control Chart<br />

A control chart with statistical limits<br />

Statistical Control<br />

Result<br />

Statistical Limit<br />

Statistical Limit<br />

allows one to make an <strong>in</strong>formed judgment about <strong>the</strong> variation <strong>in</strong> results and <strong>the</strong> appropriate<br />

actions to be taken.<br />

Statistically controlled variation is produced by common causes -<br />

causes that are <strong>in</strong>herent to system design and daily management and operat<strong>in</strong>g practice.<br />

Variation <strong>in</strong> results that exhibits statistical control <strong>in</strong>dicates that improvement <strong>in</strong> performance will<br />

occur by redesign of <strong>the</strong> system or change to <strong>the</strong> management practices that produce <strong>the</strong><br />

results.<br />

Time


Signals of a Lack of Statistical Control<br />

Result<br />

signal of<br />

special cause<br />

UCL<br />

Center<br />

l<strong>in</strong>e<br />

LCL<br />

Time


Why Use a Statistical Control Chart<br />

To prevent over-reaction to variation<br />

To guide actions for improvement<br />

Avoid<strong>in</strong>g two k<strong>in</strong>ds of mistakes:<br />

Efforts directed<br />

Common Cause<br />

Orig<strong>in</strong><br />

Common &<br />

Special Cause<br />

At a special cause<br />

Mistake<br />

Good<br />

At <strong>the</strong> cause system<br />

(common causes)<br />

Good<br />

Mistake


Why Use a Statistical Control Chart<br />

“... <strong>the</strong> type of action required to reduce special<br />

causes of variation is totally different from <strong>the</strong><br />

action required to reduce variation and faults<br />

from <strong>the</strong> system itself...”<br />

Out of <strong>the</strong> Crisis


How Will We Know a Change Is an Improvement<br />

Control Chart for Customer Satisfaction<br />

Rat<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

100<br />

95<br />

90<br />

85<br />

80<br />

75<br />

70<br />

Jul<br />

Sep<br />

Nov<br />

Jan<br />

Mar<br />

May<br />

Jul<br />

Sep<br />

Nov<br />

Jan<br />

Mar


Interpret<strong>in</strong>g Results<br />

Unit<br />

Cost<br />

UCL<br />

LCL<br />

Unit<br />

Cost<br />

Time


Interpret<strong>in</strong>g Results<br />

Unit<br />

Cost<br />

UCL<br />

Desired result<br />

LCL<br />

Time


Lost Time Accidents<br />

The number of lost time accidents <strong>in</strong> a facility jumped from two <strong>in</strong> June to<br />

five <strong>in</strong> July. The facility manager was concerned when he learned about<br />

<strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease. Here is a control chart for monthly lost time accidents:<br />

Control Chart for Lost Time Accidents<br />

6<br />

5<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1<br />

0<br />

UCL=5.4<br />

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J<br />

What do you conclude about <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease


What Should Be Done<br />

Here are some options <strong>the</strong> facility manager is consider<strong>in</strong>g. What<br />

would you recommend<br />

1. Direct <strong>the</strong> personnel manager to immediately beg<strong>in</strong> a safety tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />

program.<br />

2. Have <strong>the</strong> personnel manager f<strong>in</strong>d out who had accidents <strong>in</strong> July<br />

and put <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong>to a safety tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g program.<br />

3. Ask <strong>the</strong> personnel manager to dig up <strong>the</strong> records of lost time<br />

accidents for <strong>the</strong> past several months and categorize <strong>the</strong>m by type and<br />

by location. Look for patterns.<br />

4. Have <strong>the</strong> personnel manager hire a company to make signs with<br />

messages such as “Safety beg<strong>in</strong>s with you” so that <strong>the</strong>y can be posted<br />

<strong>in</strong> conspicuous places around <strong>the</strong> facility.


Lost Time Accidents<br />

Accidents by Type<br />

40<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

Burns Cuts Spra<strong>in</strong>s Falls O<strong>the</strong>r


Projects<br />

A policy was put <strong>in</strong>to place for a part of a firm that did its work project by<br />

project: “When a completed project’s costs are more than 10% over or<br />

under budget, <strong>the</strong> project manager will provide an explanation for <strong>the</strong><br />

variance.” Refer to <strong>the</strong> control chart below. The statistical control limits<br />

are about ±35%.<br />

Control Chart - % Under or Over Budget<br />

40<br />

%<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

-10<br />

-20<br />

-30<br />

-40<br />

UCL<br />

LCL<br />

What does <strong>the</strong> chart <strong>in</strong>dicate about variation <strong>in</strong> budget variances<br />

What do you predict will happen as a result of hav<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> policy<br />

What might be done to improve performance to budget


A Child’s Weekly Number of Seizures<br />

Number of Seizures<br />

16<br />

14<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

3/7<br />

3/21<br />

4/4<br />

4/18<br />

5/2<br />

5/16<br />

5/30<br />

6/13<br />

6/27


A Child’s Weekly Number of Seizures<br />

A change was made to <strong>the</strong> drugs <strong>the</strong> child was tak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> week of July 11<br />

Seizures - Additional Data Added<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

3/7<br />

3/21<br />

4/4<br />

4/18<br />

5/2<br />

5/16<br />

5/30<br />

6/13<br />

6/27<br />

7/11<br />

7/25<br />

8/8<br />

8/22<br />

9/5<br />

9/19


A Child’s Weekly Number of Seizures<br />

More Data on Seizures<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

7/11<br />

7/25<br />

8/8<br />

8/22<br />

9/5<br />

9/19<br />

10/3<br />

10/17<br />

10/31<br />

11/14<br />

11/28


Plott<strong>in</strong>g Po<strong>in</strong>ts<br />

Performance <strong>in</strong>dicators and o<strong>the</strong>r measures looked at<br />

regularly should be plotted over time to avoid some of<br />

<strong>the</strong> pitfalls we have discussed.<br />

Unit Cost<br />

170<br />

160<br />

150<br />

140<br />

130<br />

120<br />

110<br />

100<br />

90<br />

May-08<br />

Jul-08<br />

Sep-08<br />

Nov-08<br />

Jan-09<br />

Mar-09<br />

May-09<br />

Jul-09<br />

Sep-09<br />

Nov-09<br />

Jan-10<br />

Mar-10


Two Views of Loss<br />

Loss<br />

Loss<br />

0<br />

0<br />

Lower<br />

Specification<br />

Limit<br />

Target<br />

Upper<br />

Specification<br />

Limit<br />

Lower<br />

Specification<br />

Limit<br />

Target<br />

Upper<br />

Specification<br />

Limit<br />

Taguchi


Two Aims for Process Control<br />

• Ma<strong>in</strong>tenance of status quo<br />

• Improvement<br />

“Once statistical control is achieved..., <strong>the</strong> next<br />

step is improvement of <strong>the</strong> process, provided<br />

<strong>the</strong> economic advantage hoped for will be a<br />

good <strong>in</strong>vestment, <strong>in</strong> view of <strong>the</strong> expected cost<br />

of improvement.”<br />

The New Economics


Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />

P<br />

A<br />

P<br />

D<br />

Better<br />

P<br />

A<br />

D<br />

S<br />

A<br />

D<br />

S<br />

S<br />

Time


Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s <strong>Ideas</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>Twenty</strong>-<strong>first</strong> <strong>Century</strong><br />

Presented by:<br />

Gipsie B. Ranney<br />

April 20, 2012<br />

<strong>In2</strong>:InTh<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Network 2012 Forum<br />

<strong>Part</strong> 4


Thumb Wrestl<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Form pairs to play <strong>the</strong> game.


Thumb Wrestl<strong>in</strong>g<br />

• Each pair will grasp f<strong>in</strong>gers.<br />

• The goal of <strong>the</strong> game is to collect as many po<strong>in</strong>ts<br />

as you can <strong>in</strong> one m<strong>in</strong>ute.


Thumb Wrestl<strong>in</strong>g<br />

• To get a po<strong>in</strong>t, one partner p<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong> thumb of <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

partner. Keep track of <strong>the</strong> number of po<strong>in</strong>ts accumulated.<br />

• Warm up by tapp<strong>in</strong>g your thumbs back and forth three<br />

times.<br />

• Beg<strong>in</strong> when <strong>the</strong> timekeeper says “go.”


Thumb Wrestl<strong>in</strong>g<br />

• What assumptions were made about <strong>the</strong> game<br />

• What relationships could <strong>the</strong> two players have<br />

• If <strong>the</strong> aim of <strong>the</strong> game is for <strong>the</strong> partnership to get as<br />

many po<strong>in</strong>ts as possible, which is <strong>the</strong> higher leverage<br />

form of relationship<br />

• If you chose <strong>the</strong> lower leverage form of relationship,<br />

what was <strong>the</strong> un<strong>in</strong>tended consequence


The System of Profound Knowledge<br />

Appreciation for<br />

a System<br />

Theory of<br />

Knowledge<br />

Knowledge about<br />

Variation<br />

Psychology


Psychology<br />

• Cooperation.<br />

• Improved management of people.<br />

• Motivation.<br />

• Enhancement of ability of people to contribute.<br />

• Pride and joy <strong>in</strong> work.


Role of a Manager of People<br />

System th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g<br />

1. A manager understands and conveys to his people <strong>the</strong> mean<strong>in</strong>g of a<br />

system. He expla<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong> aims of <strong>the</strong> system. He teaches his people<br />

to understand how <strong>the</strong> work of <strong>the</strong> group supports <strong>the</strong>se aims.<br />

2. He helps his people to see <strong>the</strong>mselves as components <strong>in</strong> a system, to<br />

work <strong>in</strong> cooperation with preced<strong>in</strong>g stages and with follow<strong>in</strong>g stages<br />

toward optimization of <strong>the</strong> efforts of all stages toward achievement of<br />

<strong>the</strong> aim.<br />

14.<br />

He understands <strong>the</strong> benefits of cooperation and <strong>the</strong> losses from<br />

competition between people and between groups.<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.


Role of a Manager of People<br />

Cont<strong>in</strong>ual improvement<br />

7. He has three sources of power: 1. Authority of office. 2.<br />

Knowledge. 3.Personality and persuasive power; tact. A<br />

successful manager of people develops Nos. 2 and 3; he does<br />

not rely on No. 1. He has never<strong>the</strong>less obligation to use No. 1,<br />

as this source of power enables him to change <strong>the</strong> process … to<br />

br<strong>in</strong>g improvement….<br />

4. He is an unceas<strong>in</strong>g learner. He encourages his people to study….<br />

8. He will study results with <strong>the</strong> aim to improve his performance<br />

as a manager of people.<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.


Role of a Manager of People<br />

Understand<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> effects of <strong>the</strong> system on performance<br />

6. He understands a stable system. He understands <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>teraction<br />

between people and <strong>the</strong> circumstances that <strong>the</strong>y work <strong>in</strong>. …<br />

9. He will try to discover who if anybody is outside <strong>the</strong> system, <strong>in</strong> need of<br />

special help. This can be accomplished with simple calculations, if<br />

<strong>the</strong>re be <strong>in</strong>dividual figures on production or on failures. Special help<br />

may be only simple rearrangement of work. It might be more<br />

complicated. He <strong>in</strong> need of special help is not <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> bottom 5 per cent<br />

of <strong>the</strong> distribution of o<strong>the</strong>rs: he is clean outside that distribution.<br />

11.<br />

He does not expect perfection.<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.


Record of <strong>the</strong> number of defective items by Will<strong>in</strong>g Workers,<br />

per day. Lot size 50, each Will<strong>in</strong>g Worker per day.<br />

Will<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Workers<br />

RICH<br />

RANDY<br />

JERRY<br />

CINDA<br />

BRIAN<br />

MIKE<br />

MIMI<br />

MARK<br />

ALL 6<br />

Cum x<br />

1<br />

8<br />

13<br />

6<br />

15<br />

8<br />

16<br />

66<br />

11<br />

2<br />

12<br />

7<br />

8<br />

9<br />

10<br />

14<br />

60<br />

DAY<br />

ZD<br />

3 4<br />

The chart at <strong>the</strong> left is for Nashville, 14 November<br />

1990. The control limits <strong>the</strong>refor, extended, predict<br />

<strong>the</strong> range of variation to be expected <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future.<br />

The present experiment is an example of <strong>the</strong> future.<br />

12<br />

16<br />

13<br />

9<br />

11<br />

8<br />

69<br />

10<br />

12<br />

13<br />

8<br />

7<br />

7<br />

57<br />

10.5 10.8 10.5<br />

ALL<br />

4 5<br />

42<br />

48<br />

40<br />

41<br />

36<br />

45<br />

252<br />

11<br />

10<br />

8<br />

-- --<br />

13<br />

13<br />

4<br />

59<br />

252<br />

X = ---------------- = 10.5<br />

6 X 4<br />

252<br />

P = ---------------- = .21<br />

6 X 4 X 50<br />

UCL<br />

LCL = X + _ 3 X ( 1 - p )<br />

= 10.5 + _ 3 10.5 X .79<br />

UCL 19.14 19 = UCL<br />

LCL 1.86 2 = LCL<br />

=<br />

Wooden beads<br />

Census count,<br />

one by one<br />

Total 4000<br />

Red 800<br />

White 3200<br />

Paddle No. 4<br />

Interpretation of chart<br />

The process exhibits good statistical control. This<br />

conclusion is based on <strong>in</strong>timate knowledge of <strong>the</strong> procedures<br />

prescribed and followed by <strong>the</strong> six Will<strong>in</strong>g Workers, as well<br />

as on study of <strong>the</strong> chart. This is an example of a constant<br />

cause system. There is no evidence that one Will<strong>in</strong>g Worker<br />

will <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future be better than any o<strong>the</strong>r. Difference<br />

between Will<strong>in</strong>g Workers and between days are attributable<br />

to variation <strong>in</strong>herent <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> system, common causes.<br />

The Will<strong>in</strong>g Workers have put <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> job all that <strong>the</strong>y<br />

have to offer.<br />

One way to decrease <strong>the</strong> proportion red <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> product is<br />

to reduce <strong>the</strong> proportion of red beads <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>com<strong>in</strong>g<br />

material (management’s responsibility).<br />

The control limits may be extended <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> future as<br />

prediction of <strong>the</strong> limits of variation to expect from<br />

cont<strong>in</strong>uation of <strong>the</strong> same process.<br />

Inspector: JIM<br />

JOE<br />

Inspector General:<br />

LORI<br />

Recorder: COLLEEN<br />

DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4<br />

DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4<br />

20<br />

15<br />

NASHVILLE, 14 NOV. 1990<br />

UCL, 18<br />

20<br />

15<br />

UCL, 19<br />

WARREN, MI 15 JULY 1992<br />

10<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

LCL, 1<br />

5<br />

0<br />

RICH<br />

RANDY<br />

JERRY<br />

CINDA<br />

MIKE<br />

MARK<br />

RICH<br />

RANDY<br />

JERRY<br />

CINDA<br />

BRIAN<br />

MARK<br />

RICH<br />

RANDY<br />

LCL, 2<br />

JERRY<br />

CINDA<br />

BRIAN<br />

MARK<br />

RICH<br />

RANDY<br />

JERRY<br />

CINDA<br />

BRIAN<br />

MIMI


Role of a Manager of People<br />

6. …He understands <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>teraction between people and <strong>the</strong> circumstances<br />

that <strong>the</strong>y work <strong>in</strong>…<br />

Person<br />

Result<br />

1 8<br />

2 6<br />

3 5<br />

• •<br />

• •<br />

• •<br />

x + (yx) = 8<br />

effect of <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>dividual<br />

on <strong>the</strong> result<br />

effects of <strong>the</strong> system,<br />

<strong>in</strong>teractions of <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>dividual with <strong>the</strong> system<br />

result<br />

Source for x + (yx) = 8: The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., pp 25-26.


x + (yx) = 8<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f


x + (yx) = 8<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f


x + (yx) = 8<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

result<br />

a<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f


x + (yx) = 8<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

result<br />

a<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f


x + (yx) = 8<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

result<br />

a<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

result<br />

a<br />

result<br />

a<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f<br />

b<br />

c<br />

d<br />

e<br />

f


Forces of Destruction<br />

Life<br />

beg<strong>in</strong>s<br />

Forced distribution of grades<br />

<strong>in</strong> school. Gold stars.<br />

Merit system. Judge people;<br />

put <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong>to slots. Competition<br />

between people, groups, divisions.<br />

Ince ntive pay. Pay<br />

for performance.<br />

Numerical goals<br />

without a method.<br />

Explanation of<br />

variances.<br />

Suboptimization. Eve ry<br />

group, every division,<br />

a profit centre.<br />

Life<br />

ends<br />

These forces cause humiliation, fear, self-defense,<br />

competition for gold star, high grade, high rat<strong>in</strong>g on <strong>the</strong><br />

One is born with<br />

job. They lead anyone to play to w<strong>in</strong>, not for fun. They<br />

<strong>in</strong>tr<strong>in</strong>sic motiva-<br />

crush out joy <strong>in</strong> learn<strong>in</strong>g, joy on <strong>the</strong> job, <strong>in</strong>novation.<br />

tion, self-esteem,<br />

Extr<strong>in</strong>sic motivation ( complete resignation to<br />

dignity, cooperation,<br />

external pressures) gradually replaces <strong>in</strong>tr<strong>in</strong>sic<br />

curiosity, joy <strong>in</strong> learn<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

motivation, self-esteem, dignity.<br />

These attributes are high at <strong>the</strong><br />

beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g of life, but are gradually<br />

crushed by <strong>the</strong> forces of destruction.<br />

Time<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 122.


Intr<strong>in</strong>sic and Extr<strong>in</strong>sic Motivation<br />

Edward L. Deci 1971<br />

“Intr<strong>in</strong>sic motivation <strong>in</strong>volves people freely engag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />

activities that <strong>the</strong>y f<strong>in</strong>d <strong>in</strong>terest<strong>in</strong>g, that provide novelty<br />

and optimal challenge.”<br />

Intr<strong>in</strong>sic motivation is underm<strong>in</strong>ed by extr<strong>in</strong>sic rewards.


Herzberg on Motivation<br />

Possible <strong>in</strong>terpretation of Herzberg’s HBR article title – “One More Time,<br />

How Do You Motivate Employees”:<br />

What methods should you use to manipulate <strong>the</strong> behavior of<br />

employees to match what you want<br />

KITA<br />

To get a dog to do what you want, you can ei<strong>the</strong>r give him a treat or kick<br />

him. In nei<strong>the</strong>r case is <strong>the</strong> dog motivated – you are.


Work Motivation<br />

The “rabble hypo<strong>the</strong>sis”– T.W. Harrell<br />

Erroneous assumption that money is <strong>the</strong><br />

only important <strong>in</strong>centive<br />

Workers treated as a group of unorganized<br />

rabble <strong>in</strong>sensitive to <strong>the</strong> social motives of<br />

approval and self-respect


Work Motivation<br />

Job Characteristics Model – Richard Hackman and Greg Oldham<br />

Core job<br />

dimensions<br />

Critical<br />

psychological<br />

states<br />

Personal and<br />

work outcomes<br />

• Skill variety<br />

• Task identity<br />

• Task significance<br />

• Autonomy<br />

• Feedback<br />

Experienced<br />

mean<strong>in</strong>gfulness<br />

of <strong>the</strong> work<br />

Experienced<br />

responsibility for<br />

<strong>the</strong> outcomes<br />

of <strong>the</strong> work<br />

Knowledge of <strong>the</strong><br />

actual results of<br />

work activities<br />

High <strong>in</strong>ternal<br />

work motivation<br />

High-quality<br />

work<br />

performance<br />

High<br />

satisfaction with<br />

<strong>the</strong> work<br />

Low<br />

absenteeism<br />

and turnover


Work Motivation<br />

Act<br />

A<br />

P<br />

Plan<br />

Check<br />

C<br />

D<br />

Do


Role of a Manager of People<br />

Seek<strong>in</strong>g to understand people and help <strong>the</strong>m develop<br />

12.<br />

He listens and learns without pass<strong>in</strong>g judgment ...<br />

13.<br />

He will hold an <strong>in</strong>formal, unhurried conversation with every one<br />

of his people at least once a year, not for judgment, merely to<br />

listen. The purpose would be development of understand<strong>in</strong>g of<br />

his people, <strong>the</strong>ir aims, hopes, and fears…<br />

5. He is coach and counsel, not a judge.<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.


Toyota<br />

“Manager-teachers—<strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternal motto is Good Th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g,<br />

Good Products. How do <strong>the</strong>y achieve this “good th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g”<br />

which forms <strong>the</strong> foundation of <strong>the</strong>ir success It is through a<br />

culture of mentor<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

Managers are expected to be hands-on masters of <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

doma<strong>in</strong> of work …, are expected to spend time teach<strong>in</strong>g<br />

and coach<strong>in</strong>g o<strong>the</strong>rs.”<br />

Source: Larman and Vodde, Lean Primer


Role of a Manager of People<br />

Trust<br />

10.He creates trust. He creates an environment that encourages<br />

freedom and <strong>in</strong>novation.<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.


The Psychological Contract<br />

Argyris (1960)<br />

Unwritten expectations between an employee and <strong>the</strong><br />

employ<strong>in</strong>g organization<br />

Employee’s expectations <strong>in</strong>clude:<br />

sense of dignity<br />

sense of worth<br />

fair treatment<br />

opportunities to learn and grow<br />

Employer’s expectations of <strong>the</strong> employee <strong>in</strong>clude:<br />

loyalty<br />

commitment


Trust<br />

Trust is evolutionary<br />

conditional<br />

unconditional<br />

Unconditional trust fundamentally changes <strong>the</strong><br />

quality of <strong>the</strong> exchange relationship<br />

Jones, G. and George, J. (1998), “The Experience and Evolution of<br />

Trust: Implications for Cooperation and Teamwork,” The Academy of<br />

Management Review, 23(3), 531-546.


Trust<br />

Effects of Unconditional Trust on Interpersonal Cooperation<br />

and Teamwork<br />

•will<strong>in</strong>gness to go beyond job description<br />

•high confidence <strong>in</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs<br />

•people want to help each o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

•will<strong>in</strong>g to seek help<br />

•free exchange of knowledge and <strong>in</strong>formation<br />

•subjugation of personal needs and ego for <strong>the</strong> greater<br />

common good<br />

•high <strong>in</strong>volvement<br />

Adapted from: Jones and George (1998).


Role of a Manager of People<br />

Joy <strong>in</strong> work.<br />

3. A manager of people understands that people are different from<br />

each o<strong>the</strong>r. He tries to create for everybody <strong>in</strong>terest and<br />

challenge, and joy <strong>in</strong> work. ....<br />

The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.

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