Deming's Ideas in the Twenty-first Century Part 1 - In2:InThinking ...
Deming's Ideas in the Twenty-first Century Part 1 - In2:InThinking ...
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Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s <strong>Ideas</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>Twenty</strong>-<strong>first</strong> <strong>Century</strong><br />
Presented by:<br />
Gipsie B. Ranney<br />
April 20, 2012<br />
<strong>In2</strong>:InTh<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Network 2012 Forum<br />
<strong>Part</strong> 1
The System of Profound Knowledge<br />
Appreciation for<br />
a System<br />
Theory of<br />
Knowledge<br />
Knowledge about<br />
Variation<br />
Psychology
The System of Profound Knowledge<br />
Appreciation for<br />
a System<br />
Theory of<br />
Knowledge<br />
Knowledge about<br />
Variation<br />
Psychology
A System Versus a Heap<br />
A System<br />
A Heap<br />
Interconnect<strong>in</strong>g parts<br />
function<strong>in</strong>g as a whole.<br />
A collection of parts<br />
Changed if you take away pieces<br />
or add more pieces. If you cut a<br />
system <strong>in</strong> half, you do not get two<br />
smaller systems, but a damaged<br />
system that probably will not function.<br />
Properties are unchanged<br />
whe<strong>the</strong>r you add or take away<br />
pieces. When you halve a heap,<br />
you get two smaller heaps.<br />
The parts are connected, work<br />
toge<strong>the</strong>r, and may not work alone.<br />
The parts are not connected<br />
and can function separately.
An Organization Viewed as a System<br />
Needs<br />
Design &<br />
Redesign<br />
Customer<br />
feedback<br />
Customer<br />
research<br />
Inputs Production processes Distribution Customers<br />
Support<br />
Adapted from Figure 6, p. 58<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.
Appreciation for a System<br />
• Importance of aim(s)<br />
• Cause and effect are often separated <strong>in</strong> time and<br />
location<br />
• Optimization of parts doesn’t necessarily optimize <strong>the</strong><br />
whole<br />
• Interdependence and <strong>in</strong>teraction
Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s Recommended Aim<br />
“The aim proposed here for any organization is for<br />
everybody to ga<strong>in</strong> – stockholders, employees, suppliers,<br />
customers, community, <strong>the</strong> environment – over <strong>the</strong> long<br />
term.<br />
For example, with respect to employees, <strong>the</strong> aim might be to<br />
provide for <strong>the</strong>m good management, opportunities for<br />
tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g and education for fur<strong>the</strong>r growth, plus o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
contributors to joy <strong>in</strong> work and quality of life.”<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 51
Two Statements of Aim (Purpose)<br />
•To provide <strong>the</strong> best possible care to those need<strong>in</strong>g<br />
healthcare <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> community.<br />
•To improve <strong>the</strong> health of <strong>the</strong> community, now and <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
future.
A System of Schools<br />
Aims: “growth and development of children, and<br />
preparation for <strong>the</strong>m to contribute to <strong>the</strong> prosperity<br />
of society.”<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 62.
Narrow Objectives<br />
Without <strong>in</strong>tervention<br />
Sales<br />
Time<br />
With <strong>in</strong>tervention<br />
Sales<br />
Time
Narrow Objectives<br />
Establish<strong>in</strong>g narrow functional objectives without<br />
consideration of <strong>the</strong> potential effects on o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
parts of <strong>the</strong> organization can suboptimize <strong>the</strong><br />
organization as a whole.
Perversity Pr<strong>in</strong>ciple<br />
“If you try to improve <strong>the</strong> performance of a system of<br />
people, mach<strong>in</strong>es, and procedures by sett<strong>in</strong>g<br />
numerical goals for <strong>the</strong> improvement of <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />
parts of <strong>the</strong> system, <strong>the</strong> system will defeat your<br />
efforts and you will pay a price where you least<br />
expect it.”<br />
- Myron Tribus
A Purchas<strong>in</strong>g Manager’s Edict<br />
Reduce purchase price of each and every part <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
product by 10%.
Emergent Properties<br />
A system functions as a whole, so it has properties above<br />
and beyond those of <strong>the</strong> components that comprise it.<br />
These are known as emergent properties.<br />
Some emergent properties<br />
piano music<br />
three-dimensional vision<br />
a ra<strong>in</strong>bow<br />
movement of a car<br />
consciousness<br />
profit
Emergence
Emergent Properties of Systems<br />
The components of a human activity system should not<br />
be expected to work <strong>in</strong>dividually and <strong>in</strong>dependently on<br />
an emergent property of <strong>the</strong> entire system.
Improvement<br />
An improvement team reported on <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
improvement project.<br />
Their improvement was to move an expense from<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir department to ano<strong>the</strong>r department.
Robert Rod<strong>in</strong>, CEO, Marshall Industries<br />
Reward Systems<br />
• Our salespeople would ship ahead of <strong>the</strong> schedule to make a number or w<strong>in</strong> a prize…<br />
• We held customer returns. We had to make sure that <strong>the</strong> returns com<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> did not get<br />
counted aga<strong>in</strong>st sales <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> period for which we were try<strong>in</strong>g to hit <strong>the</strong> numbers. So, if<br />
a customer returned items, sometimes our salespeople would put <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> trunks of<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir cars and keep <strong>the</strong>m <strong>the</strong>re for a few weeks until <strong>the</strong>y could be counted as returns<br />
for next period. In <strong>the</strong> meantime, if we needed that <strong>in</strong>ventory for ano<strong>the</strong>r customer,<br />
we’d have to buy unnecessary stock.<br />
• We opened bad credit accounts. Any order was a good order as far as a sales person<br />
paid on gross profit was concerned. Just book it.<br />
• We found extraord<strong>in</strong>arily creative ways to charge expenses to one ano<strong>the</strong>r’s profit and<br />
loss statements…<br />
• Our divisions hid <strong>in</strong>ventory from one ano<strong>the</strong>r…our managers devised creative ways to<br />
hide <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ventory <strong>the</strong>y wanted to hold on to for <strong>the</strong>ir own customers, sometimes even<br />
send<strong>in</strong>g it out of state <strong>in</strong> UPS trucks so that <strong>the</strong>y could honestly tell o<strong>the</strong>r divisions <strong>the</strong>y<br />
were out of stock. When <strong>the</strong>ir own customers needed <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ventory, though, it would<br />
magically reappear…<br />
Rod<strong>in</strong>, Robert, Free, Perfect, and Now, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1999.
Reward Systems<br />
X Chart - Number of Systems Sold per Month<br />
24<br />
22<br />
20<br />
18<br />
16<br />
14<br />
12<br />
10<br />
Month
Reward Systems<br />
Quarterly Totals<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
52 52 52<br />
53<br />
52<br />
53<br />
52<br />
53<br />
52<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
Quarter
Remov<strong>in</strong>g Qualified Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Resources<br />
from <strong>the</strong> Factory<br />
+<br />
Pressure to reduce<br />
manufactur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
expense<br />
Factory<br />
expense<br />
Will<strong>in</strong>gness to<br />
staff appropriately<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> factory<br />
-<br />
Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g +<br />
resources assigned<br />
to <strong>the</strong> factory<br />
+<br />
+<br />
New product & process<br />
development eng<strong>in</strong>eers<br />
solv<strong>in</strong>g factory problems<br />
+<br />
-<br />
-<br />
New product & process<br />
development resources<br />
-<br />
Design failures<br />
Delay<br />
Product & process +<br />
problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> factory
And it will fall out as <strong>in</strong> a complication of diseases, that<br />
by apply<strong>in</strong>g a remedy to one sore, you will provoke<br />
ano<strong>the</strong>r; and that which removes <strong>the</strong> one ill symptom<br />
produces o<strong>the</strong>rs . . .<br />
- Sir Thomas More, 1516
Study <strong>the</strong> System<br />
• What are <strong>the</strong> purposes of <strong>the</strong> system<br />
• What are <strong>the</strong> components of <strong>the</strong> system<br />
These may <strong>in</strong>clude targets, goals, policies, rules, rewards,<br />
communications, etc., as well as processes.<br />
• What are <strong>the</strong> external factors that may affect <strong>the</strong> system<br />
Organizational systems and subsystems operate with<strong>in</strong> larger<br />
systems.<br />
• What are <strong>the</strong> relationships among <strong>the</strong> components of <strong>the</strong> system<br />
• What are <strong>the</strong> opportunities for improvement
Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s <strong>Ideas</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>Twenty</strong>-<strong>first</strong> <strong>Century</strong><br />
Presented by:<br />
Gipsie B. Ranney<br />
April 20, 2012<br />
<strong>In2</strong>:InTh<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Network 2012 Forum<br />
<strong>Part</strong> 2
The System of Profound Knowledge<br />
Appreciation for<br />
a System<br />
Theory of<br />
Knowledge<br />
Knowledge about<br />
Variation<br />
Psychology
Theories<br />
Realize it or not, we all use <strong>the</strong>ories.<br />
“Practical men who believe <strong>the</strong>mselves to<br />
be quite exempt from any <strong>in</strong>tellectual<br />
<strong>in</strong>fluences are usually <strong>the</strong> slaves of some<br />
defunct economist.”<br />
John Maynard Keynes,<br />
The General Theory of Employment,<br />
Interest and Money
Theories<br />
• The only purpose of a bus<strong>in</strong>ess is to make money.<br />
• Every fluctuation <strong>in</strong> cost or profit or any o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
measure of performance has a specific cause.<br />
• The most important job of <strong>the</strong> employees <strong>in</strong> a<br />
department is to make <strong>the</strong> boss look good.<br />
•<br />
•<br />
•
Theory<br />
“ Plane Euclidean geometry served <strong>the</strong> world well for a flat<br />
earth…<br />
Use of <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>ory for a flat earth fails on this earth when<br />
man extends his horizon to bigger build<strong>in</strong>gs, and to roads<br />
that go beyond <strong>the</strong> village...<br />
It is extension of application that discloses <strong>in</strong>adequacy of<br />
a <strong>the</strong>ory, and need for revision, or even new <strong>the</strong>ory. "<br />
Dem<strong>in</strong>g, The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 102
Chanticleer
Which World Which Theory<br />
“Any <strong>the</strong>orem is true <strong>in</strong> its own world. But<br />
which world are we <strong>in</strong> Which of several<br />
worlds makes contact with ours That is<br />
<strong>the</strong> question.”<br />
Dem<strong>in</strong>g, The New Economics
Theory of Knowledge<br />
The Shewhart Cycle for Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />
The P D S A Cycle<br />
Act -- Adopt <strong>the</strong><br />
change, or abandon<br />
it, or run through<br />
<strong>the</strong> cycle aga<strong>in</strong>.<br />
A<br />
P<br />
Plan a change or<br />
a test, aimed at<br />
improvement.<br />
Study <strong>the</strong> results.<br />
What did we learn<br />
What went wrong<br />
S<br />
D<br />
Do -- Carry out <strong>the</strong><br />
change or <strong>the</strong> test<br />
(preferably on a small scale).<br />
Translation of scientific method <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> context of process and system<br />
management and improvement.
The Prediction Game<br />
Adapted from work of Tom Nolan and Lloyd Provost<br />
To illustrate<br />
- use of <strong>the</strong> PDSA cycle<br />
- role of <strong>the</strong>ory and prediction <strong>in</strong> learn<strong>in</strong>g<br />
A new technology<br />
- generates numbers<br />
Aim:<br />
- to learn about <strong>the</strong> new technology
Options<br />
° Buy <strong>in</strong>formation<br />
Cost: $1000<br />
No prediction required<br />
° Small scale test<br />
Cost: $2000<br />
Prediction required<br />
Correct - $4000 ga<strong>in</strong>,<br />
Incorrect - $4000 loss<br />
° Large scale test<br />
Cost: $4000<br />
Prediction required<br />
Correct - $8000 ga<strong>in</strong>,<br />
Incorrect - $8000 loss
The Prediction Game<br />
• Did predictions improve with repeated trials<br />
• What happened when <strong>the</strong> result agreed with <strong>the</strong><br />
prediction<br />
• What happened when <strong>the</strong> result did not agree with <strong>the</strong><br />
prediction<br />
• Was <strong>the</strong>re learn<strong>in</strong>g Did learn<strong>in</strong>g occur with or without<br />
benefit of a <strong>the</strong>ory<br />
• If we cont<strong>in</strong>ued to play <strong>the</strong> game, is <strong>the</strong>re a guarantee<br />
that <strong>the</strong> same rule would cont<strong>in</strong>ue to provide correct<br />
predictions
Often repeated statement:<br />
Examples<br />
Show me an example, so I can see that this works.<br />
“ No number of examples establishes a <strong>the</strong>ory, yet a s<strong>in</strong>gle<br />
unexpla<strong>in</strong>ed failure of a <strong>the</strong>ory requires modification or even<br />
abandonment of <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>ory.<br />
It is extension of application that discloses <strong>in</strong>adequacy of a<br />
<strong>the</strong>ory, and need for revision, or even new <strong>the</strong>ory. Aga<strong>in</strong>,<br />
without <strong>the</strong>ory, <strong>the</strong>re is noth<strong>in</strong>g to revise. Without <strong>the</strong>ory,<br />
experience has no mean<strong>in</strong>g. Without <strong>the</strong>ory, one has no<br />
questions to ask. Hence without <strong>the</strong>ory, <strong>the</strong>re is no learn<strong>in</strong>g. “<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., pp. 103-104
Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />
The Shewhart Cycle for Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />
The P D S A Cycle<br />
Act -- Adopt <strong>the</strong><br />
change, or abandon<br />
it, or run through<br />
<strong>the</strong> cycle aga<strong>in</strong>.<br />
A<br />
P<br />
Plan a change or<br />
a test, aimed at<br />
improvement.<br />
Study <strong>the</strong> results.<br />
What did we learn<br />
What went wrong<br />
S<br />
D<br />
Do -- Carry out <strong>the</strong><br />
change or <strong>the</strong> test<br />
(preferably on a small scale).
Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />
P<br />
A<br />
P<br />
D<br />
Better<br />
P<br />
A<br />
D<br />
S<br />
A<br />
D<br />
S<br />
S<br />
Time
Mental Models<br />
We have mental models <strong>in</strong> our heads. Those mental<br />
models govern what we are able to see.<br />
“We don’t see th<strong>in</strong>gs as <strong>the</strong>y are, we see <strong>the</strong>m as we are.”<br />
- Anais N<strong>in</strong>
What is this
What is this
What is this
Policies and Practices<br />
The executives of a company have company cell phones.<br />
The company requires that each user reimburse <strong>the</strong><br />
company for any use of <strong>the</strong> cellular phone for personal<br />
calls. One executive related that he wrote a check to <strong>the</strong><br />
company for $2.76 for his personal calls <strong>in</strong> one month.<br />
How much will it cost <strong>the</strong> company to process <strong>the</strong> check<br />
What assumptions lie beh<strong>in</strong>d <strong>the</strong> requirement
Policies and Practices<br />
A company has park<strong>in</strong>g for employees’ cars <strong>in</strong>side <strong>the</strong><br />
fence that surrounds <strong>the</strong> property. The personnel<br />
manager announces that, <strong>in</strong> order to protect product<br />
design secrets, random searches of employee vehicles<br />
will be carried out at <strong>the</strong> exit gates.<br />
What assumptions lie beh<strong>in</strong>d this practice<br />
What would have been useful questions to consider prior<br />
to adopt<strong>in</strong>g this practice
Best Practices<br />
Advice is often given to identify “best practices” and<br />
use <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong> your organization.<br />
Given our discussion of systems, what might be<br />
some considerations <strong>in</strong> decid<strong>in</strong>g to use a “best<br />
practice”
Theory of Knowledge<br />
“Any <strong>the</strong>orem is true <strong>in</strong> its own world. But which<br />
world are we <strong>in</strong> Which of several worlds makes<br />
contact with ours That is <strong>the</strong> question.”<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 227
Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s <strong>Ideas</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>Twenty</strong>-<strong>first</strong> <strong>Century</strong><br />
Presented by:<br />
Gipsie B. Ranney<br />
April 20, 2012<br />
<strong>In2</strong>:InTh<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Network 2012 Forum<br />
<strong>Part</strong> 3
The System of Profound Knowledge<br />
Appreciation for<br />
a System<br />
Theory of<br />
Knowledge<br />
Knowledge about<br />
Variation<br />
Psychology
Evaluat<strong>in</strong>g Performance Indicators<br />
Indicator Jan, 10<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
Unit Cost 136.60<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●
Evaluat<strong>in</strong>g Performance Indicators<br />
Indicator Dec, 09 Jan, 10<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
Unit Cost 134.80 136.60<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●
Evaluat<strong>in</strong>g Performance Indicators<br />
Indicator Jan, 09 Dec, 09 Jan, 10<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
Unit Cost 119.00 134.80 136.60<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●<br />
●●●●●●●<br />
●●●
Evaluat<strong>in</strong>g Performance Indicators<br />
Unit Cost<br />
170<br />
160<br />
150<br />
140<br />
130<br />
120<br />
110<br />
100<br />
90<br />
May-08<br />
Jul-08<br />
Sep-08<br />
Nov-08<br />
Jan-09<br />
Mar-09<br />
May-09<br />
Jul-09<br />
Sep-09<br />
Nov-09<br />
Jan-10<br />
Mar-10
Patterns of Variation<br />
Result<br />
A<br />
Time<br />
Result<br />
B<br />
Time<br />
Result<br />
C<br />
Time
Patterns of Variation<br />
Monthly Sales<br />
$<br />
800000<br />
700000<br />
600000<br />
500000<br />
400000<br />
300000<br />
200000<br />
100000<br />
0<br />
Jan-96<br />
Apr-96<br />
Jul-96<br />
Oct-96<br />
Jan-97<br />
Apr-97<br />
Jul-97<br />
Oct-97<br />
Jan-98<br />
Apr-98<br />
Jul-98<br />
Oct-98<br />
Jan-99<br />
Apr-99<br />
Jul-99<br />
Month
Patterns of Variation<br />
Average Length of Stay for a Surgical Procedure<br />
5.00<br />
4.00<br />
3.00<br />
2.00<br />
1.00<br />
0.00<br />
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24<br />
Month
Patterns of Variation<br />
Customer Satisfaction Rat<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
100<br />
95<br />
90<br />
85<br />
80<br />
75<br />
70<br />
Jul<br />
Sep<br />
Nov<br />
Jan<br />
Mar<br />
May<br />
Jul<br />
Sep<br />
Nov<br />
Jan<br />
Mar
The Statistical Control Chart<br />
Invented by physicist and statistician<br />
Walter Shewhart.<br />
Provided a means by which variation<br />
could be <strong>in</strong>terpreted and acted on<br />
appropriately.
The Statistical Control Chart<br />
A control chart with statistical limits<br />
Statistical Control<br />
Result<br />
Statistical Limit<br />
Statistical Limit<br />
allows one to make an <strong>in</strong>formed judgment about <strong>the</strong> variation <strong>in</strong> results and <strong>the</strong> appropriate<br />
actions to be taken.<br />
Statistically controlled variation is produced by common causes -<br />
causes that are <strong>in</strong>herent to system design and daily management and operat<strong>in</strong>g practice.<br />
Variation <strong>in</strong> results that exhibits statistical control <strong>in</strong>dicates that improvement <strong>in</strong> performance will<br />
occur by redesign of <strong>the</strong> system or change to <strong>the</strong> management practices that produce <strong>the</strong><br />
results.<br />
Time
Signals of a Lack of Statistical Control<br />
Result<br />
signal of<br />
special cause<br />
UCL<br />
Center<br />
l<strong>in</strong>e<br />
LCL<br />
Time
Why Use a Statistical Control Chart<br />
To prevent over-reaction to variation<br />
To guide actions for improvement<br />
Avoid<strong>in</strong>g two k<strong>in</strong>ds of mistakes:<br />
Efforts directed<br />
Common Cause<br />
Orig<strong>in</strong><br />
Common &<br />
Special Cause<br />
At a special cause<br />
Mistake<br />
Good<br />
At <strong>the</strong> cause system<br />
(common causes)<br />
Good<br />
Mistake
Why Use a Statistical Control Chart<br />
“... <strong>the</strong> type of action required to reduce special<br />
causes of variation is totally different from <strong>the</strong><br />
action required to reduce variation and faults<br />
from <strong>the</strong> system itself...”<br />
Out of <strong>the</strong> Crisis
How Will We Know a Change Is an Improvement<br />
Control Chart for Customer Satisfaction<br />
Rat<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
100<br />
95<br />
90<br />
85<br />
80<br />
75<br />
70<br />
Jul<br />
Sep<br />
Nov<br />
Jan<br />
Mar<br />
May<br />
Jul<br />
Sep<br />
Nov<br />
Jan<br />
Mar
Interpret<strong>in</strong>g Results<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
UCL<br />
LCL<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Time
Interpret<strong>in</strong>g Results<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
UCL<br />
Desired result<br />
LCL<br />
Time
Lost Time Accidents<br />
The number of lost time accidents <strong>in</strong> a facility jumped from two <strong>in</strong> June to<br />
five <strong>in</strong> July. The facility manager was concerned when he learned about<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease. Here is a control chart for monthly lost time accidents:<br />
Control Chart for Lost Time Accidents<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
UCL=5.4<br />
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J<br />
What do you conclude about <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease
What Should Be Done<br />
Here are some options <strong>the</strong> facility manager is consider<strong>in</strong>g. What<br />
would you recommend<br />
1. Direct <strong>the</strong> personnel manager to immediately beg<strong>in</strong> a safety tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
program.<br />
2. Have <strong>the</strong> personnel manager f<strong>in</strong>d out who had accidents <strong>in</strong> July<br />
and put <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong>to a safety tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g program.<br />
3. Ask <strong>the</strong> personnel manager to dig up <strong>the</strong> records of lost time<br />
accidents for <strong>the</strong> past several months and categorize <strong>the</strong>m by type and<br />
by location. Look for patterns.<br />
4. Have <strong>the</strong> personnel manager hire a company to make signs with<br />
messages such as “Safety beg<strong>in</strong>s with you” so that <strong>the</strong>y can be posted<br />
<strong>in</strong> conspicuous places around <strong>the</strong> facility.
Lost Time Accidents<br />
Accidents by Type<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
Burns Cuts Spra<strong>in</strong>s Falls O<strong>the</strong>r
Projects<br />
A policy was put <strong>in</strong>to place for a part of a firm that did its work project by<br />
project: “When a completed project’s costs are more than 10% over or<br />
under budget, <strong>the</strong> project manager will provide an explanation for <strong>the</strong><br />
variance.” Refer to <strong>the</strong> control chart below. The statistical control limits<br />
are about ±35%.<br />
Control Chart - % Under or Over Budget<br />
40<br />
%<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
-10<br />
-20<br />
-30<br />
-40<br />
UCL<br />
LCL<br />
What does <strong>the</strong> chart <strong>in</strong>dicate about variation <strong>in</strong> budget variances<br />
What do you predict will happen as a result of hav<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> policy<br />
What might be done to improve performance to budget
A Child’s Weekly Number of Seizures<br />
Number of Seizures<br />
16<br />
14<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
3/7<br />
3/21<br />
4/4<br />
4/18<br />
5/2<br />
5/16<br />
5/30<br />
6/13<br />
6/27
A Child’s Weekly Number of Seizures<br />
A change was made to <strong>the</strong> drugs <strong>the</strong> child was tak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> week of July 11<br />
Seizures - Additional Data Added<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
3/7<br />
3/21<br />
4/4<br />
4/18<br />
5/2<br />
5/16<br />
5/30<br />
6/13<br />
6/27<br />
7/11<br />
7/25<br />
8/8<br />
8/22<br />
9/5<br />
9/19
A Child’s Weekly Number of Seizures<br />
More Data on Seizures<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
7/11<br />
7/25<br />
8/8<br />
8/22<br />
9/5<br />
9/19<br />
10/3<br />
10/17<br />
10/31<br />
11/14<br />
11/28
Plott<strong>in</strong>g Po<strong>in</strong>ts<br />
Performance <strong>in</strong>dicators and o<strong>the</strong>r measures looked at<br />
regularly should be plotted over time to avoid some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> pitfalls we have discussed.<br />
Unit Cost<br />
170<br />
160<br />
150<br />
140<br />
130<br />
120<br />
110<br />
100<br />
90<br />
May-08<br />
Jul-08<br />
Sep-08<br />
Nov-08<br />
Jan-09<br />
Mar-09<br />
May-09<br />
Jul-09<br />
Sep-09<br />
Nov-09<br />
Jan-10<br />
Mar-10
Two Views of Loss<br />
Loss<br />
Loss<br />
0<br />
0<br />
Lower<br />
Specification<br />
Limit<br />
Target<br />
Upper<br />
Specification<br />
Limit<br />
Lower<br />
Specification<br />
Limit<br />
Target<br />
Upper<br />
Specification<br />
Limit<br />
Taguchi
Two Aims for Process Control<br />
• Ma<strong>in</strong>tenance of status quo<br />
• Improvement<br />
“Once statistical control is achieved..., <strong>the</strong> next<br />
step is improvement of <strong>the</strong> process, provided<br />
<strong>the</strong> economic advantage hoped for will be a<br />
good <strong>in</strong>vestment, <strong>in</strong> view of <strong>the</strong> expected cost<br />
of improvement.”<br />
The New Economics
Learn<strong>in</strong>g and Improvement<br />
P<br />
A<br />
P<br />
D<br />
Better<br />
P<br />
A<br />
D<br />
S<br />
A<br />
D<br />
S<br />
S<br />
Time
Dem<strong>in</strong>g’s <strong>Ideas</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>Twenty</strong>-<strong>first</strong> <strong>Century</strong><br />
Presented by:<br />
Gipsie B. Ranney<br />
April 20, 2012<br />
<strong>In2</strong>:InTh<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Network 2012 Forum<br />
<strong>Part</strong> 4
Thumb Wrestl<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Form pairs to play <strong>the</strong> game.
Thumb Wrestl<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• Each pair will grasp f<strong>in</strong>gers.<br />
• The goal of <strong>the</strong> game is to collect as many po<strong>in</strong>ts<br />
as you can <strong>in</strong> one m<strong>in</strong>ute.
Thumb Wrestl<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• To get a po<strong>in</strong>t, one partner p<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong> thumb of <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
partner. Keep track of <strong>the</strong> number of po<strong>in</strong>ts accumulated.<br />
• Warm up by tapp<strong>in</strong>g your thumbs back and forth three<br />
times.<br />
• Beg<strong>in</strong> when <strong>the</strong> timekeeper says “go.”
Thumb Wrestl<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• What assumptions were made about <strong>the</strong> game<br />
• What relationships could <strong>the</strong> two players have<br />
• If <strong>the</strong> aim of <strong>the</strong> game is for <strong>the</strong> partnership to get as<br />
many po<strong>in</strong>ts as possible, which is <strong>the</strong> higher leverage<br />
form of relationship<br />
• If you chose <strong>the</strong> lower leverage form of relationship,<br />
what was <strong>the</strong> un<strong>in</strong>tended consequence
The System of Profound Knowledge<br />
Appreciation for<br />
a System<br />
Theory of<br />
Knowledge<br />
Knowledge about<br />
Variation<br />
Psychology
Psychology<br />
• Cooperation.<br />
• Improved management of people.<br />
• Motivation.<br />
• Enhancement of ability of people to contribute.<br />
• Pride and joy <strong>in</strong> work.
Role of a Manager of People<br />
System th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g<br />
1. A manager understands and conveys to his people <strong>the</strong> mean<strong>in</strong>g of a<br />
system. He expla<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong> aims of <strong>the</strong> system. He teaches his people<br />
to understand how <strong>the</strong> work of <strong>the</strong> group supports <strong>the</strong>se aims.<br />
2. He helps his people to see <strong>the</strong>mselves as components <strong>in</strong> a system, to<br />
work <strong>in</strong> cooperation with preced<strong>in</strong>g stages and with follow<strong>in</strong>g stages<br />
toward optimization of <strong>the</strong> efforts of all stages toward achievement of<br />
<strong>the</strong> aim.<br />
14.<br />
He understands <strong>the</strong> benefits of cooperation and <strong>the</strong> losses from<br />
competition between people and between groups.<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.
Role of a Manager of People<br />
Cont<strong>in</strong>ual improvement<br />
7. He has three sources of power: 1. Authority of office. 2.<br />
Knowledge. 3.Personality and persuasive power; tact. A<br />
successful manager of people develops Nos. 2 and 3; he does<br />
not rely on No. 1. He has never<strong>the</strong>less obligation to use No. 1,<br />
as this source of power enables him to change <strong>the</strong> process … to<br />
br<strong>in</strong>g improvement….<br />
4. He is an unceas<strong>in</strong>g learner. He encourages his people to study….<br />
8. He will study results with <strong>the</strong> aim to improve his performance<br />
as a manager of people.<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.
Role of a Manager of People<br />
Understand<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> effects of <strong>the</strong> system on performance<br />
6. He understands a stable system. He understands <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>teraction<br />
between people and <strong>the</strong> circumstances that <strong>the</strong>y work <strong>in</strong>. …<br />
9. He will try to discover who if anybody is outside <strong>the</strong> system, <strong>in</strong> need of<br />
special help. This can be accomplished with simple calculations, if<br />
<strong>the</strong>re be <strong>in</strong>dividual figures on production or on failures. Special help<br />
may be only simple rearrangement of work. It might be more<br />
complicated. He <strong>in</strong> need of special help is not <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> bottom 5 per cent<br />
of <strong>the</strong> distribution of o<strong>the</strong>rs: he is clean outside that distribution.<br />
11.<br />
He does not expect perfection.<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.
Record of <strong>the</strong> number of defective items by Will<strong>in</strong>g Workers,<br />
per day. Lot size 50, each Will<strong>in</strong>g Worker per day.<br />
Will<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Workers<br />
RICH<br />
RANDY<br />
JERRY<br />
CINDA<br />
BRIAN<br />
MIKE<br />
MIMI<br />
MARK<br />
ALL 6<br />
Cum x<br />
1<br />
8<br />
13<br />
6<br />
15<br />
8<br />
16<br />
66<br />
11<br />
2<br />
12<br />
7<br />
8<br />
9<br />
10<br />
14<br />
60<br />
DAY<br />
ZD<br />
3 4<br />
The chart at <strong>the</strong> left is for Nashville, 14 November<br />
1990. The control limits <strong>the</strong>refor, extended, predict<br />
<strong>the</strong> range of variation to be expected <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
The present experiment is an example of <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
12<br />
16<br />
13<br />
9<br />
11<br />
8<br />
69<br />
10<br />
12<br />
13<br />
8<br />
7<br />
7<br />
57<br />
10.5 10.8 10.5<br />
ALL<br />
4 5<br />
42<br />
48<br />
40<br />
41<br />
36<br />
45<br />
252<br />
11<br />
10<br />
8<br />
-- --<br />
13<br />
13<br />
4<br />
59<br />
252<br />
X = ---------------- = 10.5<br />
6 X 4<br />
252<br />
P = ---------------- = .21<br />
6 X 4 X 50<br />
UCL<br />
LCL = X + _ 3 X ( 1 - p )<br />
= 10.5 + _ 3 10.5 X .79<br />
UCL 19.14 19 = UCL<br />
LCL 1.86 2 = LCL<br />
=<br />
Wooden beads<br />
Census count,<br />
one by one<br />
Total 4000<br />
Red 800<br />
White 3200<br />
Paddle No. 4<br />
Interpretation of chart<br />
The process exhibits good statistical control. This<br />
conclusion is based on <strong>in</strong>timate knowledge of <strong>the</strong> procedures<br />
prescribed and followed by <strong>the</strong> six Will<strong>in</strong>g Workers, as well<br />
as on study of <strong>the</strong> chart. This is an example of a constant<br />
cause system. There is no evidence that one Will<strong>in</strong>g Worker<br />
will <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future be better than any o<strong>the</strong>r. Difference<br />
between Will<strong>in</strong>g Workers and between days are attributable<br />
to variation <strong>in</strong>herent <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> system, common causes.<br />
The Will<strong>in</strong>g Workers have put <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> job all that <strong>the</strong>y<br />
have to offer.<br />
One way to decrease <strong>the</strong> proportion red <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> product is<br />
to reduce <strong>the</strong> proportion of red beads <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>com<strong>in</strong>g<br />
material (management’s responsibility).<br />
The control limits may be extended <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> future as<br />
prediction of <strong>the</strong> limits of variation to expect from<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>uation of <strong>the</strong> same process.<br />
Inspector: JIM<br />
JOE<br />
Inspector General:<br />
LORI<br />
Recorder: COLLEEN<br />
DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4<br />
DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4<br />
20<br />
15<br />
NASHVILLE, 14 NOV. 1990<br />
UCL, 18<br />
20<br />
15<br />
UCL, 19<br />
WARREN, MI 15 JULY 1992<br />
10<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
LCL, 1<br />
5<br />
0<br />
RICH<br />
RANDY<br />
JERRY<br />
CINDA<br />
MIKE<br />
MARK<br />
RICH<br />
RANDY<br />
JERRY<br />
CINDA<br />
BRIAN<br />
MARK<br />
RICH<br />
RANDY<br />
LCL, 2<br />
JERRY<br />
CINDA<br />
BRIAN<br />
MARK<br />
RICH<br />
RANDY<br />
JERRY<br />
CINDA<br />
BRIAN<br />
MIMI
Role of a Manager of People<br />
6. …He understands <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>teraction between people and <strong>the</strong> circumstances<br />
that <strong>the</strong>y work <strong>in</strong>…<br />
Person<br />
Result<br />
1 8<br />
2 6<br />
3 5<br />
• •<br />
• •<br />
• •<br />
x + (yx) = 8<br />
effect of <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>dividual<br />
on <strong>the</strong> result<br />
effects of <strong>the</strong> system,<br />
<strong>in</strong>teractions of <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>dividual with <strong>the</strong> system<br />
result<br />
Source for x + (yx) = 8: The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., pp 25-26.
x + (yx) = 8<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f
x + (yx) = 8<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f
x + (yx) = 8<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
result<br />
a<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f
x + (yx) = 8<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
result<br />
a<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f
x + (yx) = 8<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
result<br />
a<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
result<br />
a<br />
result<br />
a<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f<br />
b<br />
c<br />
d<br />
e<br />
f
Forces of Destruction<br />
Life<br />
beg<strong>in</strong>s<br />
Forced distribution of grades<br />
<strong>in</strong> school. Gold stars.<br />
Merit system. Judge people;<br />
put <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong>to slots. Competition<br />
between people, groups, divisions.<br />
Ince ntive pay. Pay<br />
for performance.<br />
Numerical goals<br />
without a method.<br />
Explanation of<br />
variances.<br />
Suboptimization. Eve ry<br />
group, every division,<br />
a profit centre.<br />
Life<br />
ends<br />
These forces cause humiliation, fear, self-defense,<br />
competition for gold star, high grade, high rat<strong>in</strong>g on <strong>the</strong><br />
One is born with<br />
job. They lead anyone to play to w<strong>in</strong>, not for fun. They<br />
<strong>in</strong>tr<strong>in</strong>sic motiva-<br />
crush out joy <strong>in</strong> learn<strong>in</strong>g, joy on <strong>the</strong> job, <strong>in</strong>novation.<br />
tion, self-esteem,<br />
Extr<strong>in</strong>sic motivation ( complete resignation to<br />
dignity, cooperation,<br />
external pressures) gradually replaces <strong>in</strong>tr<strong>in</strong>sic<br />
curiosity, joy <strong>in</strong> learn<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
motivation, self-esteem, dignity.<br />
These attributes are high at <strong>the</strong><br />
beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g of life, but are gradually<br />
crushed by <strong>the</strong> forces of destruction.<br />
Time<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed., p. 122.
Intr<strong>in</strong>sic and Extr<strong>in</strong>sic Motivation<br />
Edward L. Deci 1971<br />
“Intr<strong>in</strong>sic motivation <strong>in</strong>volves people freely engag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
activities that <strong>the</strong>y f<strong>in</strong>d <strong>in</strong>terest<strong>in</strong>g, that provide novelty<br />
and optimal challenge.”<br />
Intr<strong>in</strong>sic motivation is underm<strong>in</strong>ed by extr<strong>in</strong>sic rewards.
Herzberg on Motivation<br />
Possible <strong>in</strong>terpretation of Herzberg’s HBR article title – “One More Time,<br />
How Do You Motivate Employees”:<br />
What methods should you use to manipulate <strong>the</strong> behavior of<br />
employees to match what you want<br />
KITA<br />
To get a dog to do what you want, you can ei<strong>the</strong>r give him a treat or kick<br />
him. In nei<strong>the</strong>r case is <strong>the</strong> dog motivated – you are.
Work Motivation<br />
The “rabble hypo<strong>the</strong>sis”– T.W. Harrell<br />
Erroneous assumption that money is <strong>the</strong><br />
only important <strong>in</strong>centive<br />
Workers treated as a group of unorganized<br />
rabble <strong>in</strong>sensitive to <strong>the</strong> social motives of<br />
approval and self-respect
Work Motivation<br />
Job Characteristics Model – Richard Hackman and Greg Oldham<br />
Core job<br />
dimensions<br />
Critical<br />
psychological<br />
states<br />
Personal and<br />
work outcomes<br />
• Skill variety<br />
• Task identity<br />
• Task significance<br />
• Autonomy<br />
• Feedback<br />
Experienced<br />
mean<strong>in</strong>gfulness<br />
of <strong>the</strong> work<br />
Experienced<br />
responsibility for<br />
<strong>the</strong> outcomes<br />
of <strong>the</strong> work<br />
Knowledge of <strong>the</strong><br />
actual results of<br />
work activities<br />
High <strong>in</strong>ternal<br />
work motivation<br />
High-quality<br />
work<br />
performance<br />
High<br />
satisfaction with<br />
<strong>the</strong> work<br />
Low<br />
absenteeism<br />
and turnover
Work Motivation<br />
Act<br />
A<br />
P<br />
Plan<br />
Check<br />
C<br />
D<br />
Do
Role of a Manager of People<br />
Seek<strong>in</strong>g to understand people and help <strong>the</strong>m develop<br />
12.<br />
He listens and learns without pass<strong>in</strong>g judgment ...<br />
13.<br />
He will hold an <strong>in</strong>formal, unhurried conversation with every one<br />
of his people at least once a year, not for judgment, merely to<br />
listen. The purpose would be development of understand<strong>in</strong>g of<br />
his people, <strong>the</strong>ir aims, hopes, and fears…<br />
5. He is coach and counsel, not a judge.<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.
Toyota<br />
“Manager-teachers—<strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternal motto is Good Th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
Good Products. How do <strong>the</strong>y achieve this “good th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g”<br />
which forms <strong>the</strong> foundation of <strong>the</strong>ir success It is through a<br />
culture of mentor<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Managers are expected to be hands-on masters of <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
doma<strong>in</strong> of work …, are expected to spend time teach<strong>in</strong>g<br />
and coach<strong>in</strong>g o<strong>the</strong>rs.”<br />
Source: Larman and Vodde, Lean Primer
Role of a Manager of People<br />
Trust<br />
10.He creates trust. He creates an environment that encourages<br />
freedom and <strong>in</strong>novation.<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.
The Psychological Contract<br />
Argyris (1960)<br />
Unwritten expectations between an employee and <strong>the</strong><br />
employ<strong>in</strong>g organization<br />
Employee’s expectations <strong>in</strong>clude:<br />
sense of dignity<br />
sense of worth<br />
fair treatment<br />
opportunities to learn and grow<br />
Employer’s expectations of <strong>the</strong> employee <strong>in</strong>clude:<br />
loyalty<br />
commitment
Trust<br />
Trust is evolutionary<br />
conditional<br />
unconditional<br />
Unconditional trust fundamentally changes <strong>the</strong><br />
quality of <strong>the</strong> exchange relationship<br />
Jones, G. and George, J. (1998), “The Experience and Evolution of<br />
Trust: Implications for Cooperation and Teamwork,” The Academy of<br />
Management Review, 23(3), 531-546.
Trust<br />
Effects of Unconditional Trust on Interpersonal Cooperation<br />
and Teamwork<br />
•will<strong>in</strong>gness to go beyond job description<br />
•high confidence <strong>in</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs<br />
•people want to help each o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
•will<strong>in</strong>g to seek help<br />
•free exchange of knowledge and <strong>in</strong>formation<br />
•subjugation of personal needs and ego for <strong>the</strong> greater<br />
common good<br />
•high <strong>in</strong>volvement<br />
Adapted from: Jones and George (1998).
Role of a Manager of People<br />
Joy <strong>in</strong> work.<br />
3. A manager of people understands that people are different from<br />
each o<strong>the</strong>r. He tries to create for everybody <strong>in</strong>terest and<br />
challenge, and joy <strong>in</strong> work. ....<br />
The New Economics, 2 nd Ed.