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32 Low-carbon Africa: leapfrogging to a green future Low-carbon and renewable potential Table 7: Low-carbon Africa – business as usual (BAU) and abatement potential (giga tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent, GtCO 2 e per year) 122 BAU Emissions Abatement potential 2005 2020 2030 2020 2030 Africa South Africa 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.5 Rest of Africa 2.7 3.2 3.5 1.3 2.4 Figure 8: Capital investment by region incremental to business-as-usual for the abatement potential identified. (€ billion per year, annual value in period). 123 2011-2015 2026-2030 North America* 69 140 Western Europe** 54 102 Eastern Europe*** OECD Pacific Latin America 20 16 31 35 40 52 Rest of developing Asia 19 70 Africa 12 35 China 57 211 India 8 61 Middle East Global Air and Sea Transport 16 15 34 31 TOTAL 317 811 Notes: *United States and Canada **EU27, Andorra, Iceland, Lichtenstein, Monaco, Norway, San Marino, Switzerland ***Russia and non-OECD Eastern Europe Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Pathways to a Low-carbon Economy; Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve V2; Houghton; IEA; UNFCCC; US EPA.
Low-carbon Africa: leapfrogging to a green future Low-carbon and renewable potential 33 energy consumption is actually increasing slower than population growth, meaning that per capita primary energy consumption actually declines by 0.7 per cent per year. By 2035, the average African rate of primary-energy consumption would be about 15 per cent lower than it is today. Even the IEA’s Universal Energy Access scenarios provide a very minimal level of energy services. The target level of electricity is enough to provide a rural household with enough electricity to power ’a floor fan, two compact fluorescent light bulbs and a radio for about five hours per day’. The total amount of electricity allotted per rural household for one year is equivalent to the amount consumed by the typical US household in approximately one week. The amount of cooking fuel (22kg of LPG) allotted per person for one year in the Universal Energy Access scenario is about the energy equivalent of a half-full tank of petrol in a typical US passenger car, or less than one week’s worth of fuel. Obviously, these low levels of energy availability do not support the Level 2 energy services necessary to enable the productive activities that would support improved livelihoods. Actually supporting such improved livelihoods would require a much more ambitious acceleration of investment in energy infrastructure than that implied by the investment figures given. Thus, IEA-style figures – the only ones available for green growth in Africa – in fact grossly underestimate the actual investment requirements corresponding to Africa’s development needs. They cannot reasonably be said to support any right to sustainable development.
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