complex and unproven recovery schemes. Based on these observations, “substantial supporting technical evidence” is not available to prove productive capability for the <strong>Nisku</strong> at Nixon. Results and recommendations ORI land holdings in the <strong>Athabasca</strong> area have been analyzed stochastically for <strong>Nisku</strong>, <strong>Viking</strong> and <strong>Grand</strong> <strong>Rapids</strong> Formations bitumen potential. Summing multiple estimated volumes arithmetically is a misleading practice according to statistical principles. The sum of the best estimates is generally considered to be an approximation of overall best estimate. However, the sum of the low estimates is likely to be lower than the expected low estimate, and the sum of the high estimates is likely to be higher than the expected high estimate. A Monte Carlo analysis was necessary to aggregate multiple results. The distributions for PIIP for the <strong>Viking</strong> and PIIP and prospective resources for the <strong>Grand</strong> <strong>Rapids</strong> and <strong>Nisku</strong> Formation in the Nixon area have been calculated. The resource estimation results are included in the table below. Summary of <strong>Athabasca</strong> area resources on ORI lands (1) <strong>Nisku</strong>, <strong>Viking</strong> and <strong>Grand</strong> <strong>Rapids</strong> Formations Detailed Summary of Resources on <strong>Oil</strong> <strong>Reserve</strong> <strong>Inc</strong>. Lands (1) NIXON Gross MBbl WI MBbl Resource Class Low Expected High Low Expected High Cumulative Production - - - - - - Remaining <strong>Reserve</strong>s - - - - - - Surface Loss/Shrinkage - - - - - - Total Commercial - - - - - - Contingent Resources - - - - - - Unrecoverable - - - - - - Total Sub-Commercial - - - - - - Total Discovered PIIP - - - - - - Prospective Resources 1,828.0 5,493.0 20,456.0 1,828.0 5,493.0 20,456.0 <strong>Grand</strong> <strong>Rapids</strong> 304.0 655.0 1,412.0 304.0 655.0 1,412.0 <strong>Nisku</strong> 1,120.0 4,702.0 19,738.0 1,120.0 4,702.0 19,738.0 Unrecoverable 2,037,127.0 3,348,787.0 5,554,649.0 2,037,127.0 3,348,787.0 5,554,649.0 Total Undiscovered PIIP 2,038,955.0 3,354,280.0 5,575,105.0 2,038,955.0 3,354,280.0 5,575,105.0 Total PIIP 2,038,955.0 3,354,280.0 5,575,105.0 2,038,955.0 3,354,280.0 5,575,105.0 <strong>Viking</strong> 1,419,623.0 2,460,916.0 4,265,997.0 1,419,623.0 2,460,916.0 4,265,997.0 <strong>Grand</strong> <strong>Rapids</strong> 4,437.0 8,461.0 16,133.0 4,437.0 8,461.0 16,133.0 <strong>Nisku</strong> 233,075.0 671,933.0 1,937,121.0 233,075.0 671,933.0 1,937,121.0 Notes: (1) Effective March 31, 2012 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Additional details regarding the stochastic analysis are included within the Tables section of the report. Additional well logs, core data and seismic data would be useful to further delineate the geology and increase certainty for some parameters. Further to that, a pilot program and development of an appropriate enhanced recovery scheme is necessary. Cautionary statements The range of estimated undiscovered PIIP has not been adjusted for risk based on the chance of development. There is no certainty that pools will be developed or, if they are developed, there is no certainty as to the timing of such development. The effect of gas and possible water zones on any particular recovery scheme in will not likely be known until pilot testing is underway or completed. Any possible bitumen recovery on ORI leases would not necessarily be economically feasible. The wide ranges of parameters and volumes in the <strong>Nisku</strong> evaluation are a direct result of numerous uncertainties including the lack of well log control to the base of the target interval and uncertainty due to geological heterogeneity observed in this and other bituminous carbonate pools globally. The efficiency of any enhanced recovery scheme is unknown in carbonates such as the <strong>Nisku</strong>. © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.