BBC News - Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect? - Think Site EU

BBC News - Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?
28/01/11 15:46
AFRICA
28 January 2011 Last updated at 11:47 GMT
Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?
In the wake of the ousting of Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, observers
have drawn parallels with other countries in the region.
There is speculation about a possible domino effect similar to the collapse of Communist
governments around Eastern Europe in 1989.
In several countries of the Middle East and North Africa, youthful and rapidly growing
populations face rising food prices, high unemployment and lack of political representation.
Some are also ruled by aging autocrats facing succession issues.
Which are the countries involved, and what is the likelihood of real change?
Egypt
Egypt has many similarities with Tunisia - tough economic conditions, official corruption
and little opportunity for its citizens to express their dissatisfaction with the political system.
President Hosni Mubarak, 82, has an almost complete monopoly on power, has been in
office for three decades and is seeking re-election this autumn.
In January, several cases of self-immolation were reported in Egypt, apparent attempts to
mimic the actions of the young Tunisian, Mohamed Bouazizi, who set himself on fire in
mid-December and died on 4 January, triggering the unrest which ultimately overthrew
President Ben Ali.
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BBC News - Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?
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Then, on 25 January, the deep frustration of ordinary Egyptians spilled over into the streets
of Cairo. Protesters - many waving Tunisian as well as Egyptian flags - came out in
numbers not seen since the bread riots of the 1970s. Opposition groups issued demands
for President Mubarak to resign, and called for an end to poverty, corruption,
unemployment and police abuses. Four people died in the clashes, one of them a
policeman.
The next day, police again used tear gas against thousands of demonstrators in Cairo, and
protesters in Suez set fire to a government building. A policeman and a protester were
killed, and the interior ministry said 500 people had been arrested. The government also
announced that public gatherings would no longer be tolerated.
The police have been taken unaware by the size and power of the demonstrations, says
the BBC's Jon Leyne in Cairo.
But change will not come easily in Egypt - the country is about eight times the size of
Tunisia, the people are on average less literate and educated, and less internet-savvy.
The trade unions are not as powerful, and the powerful security apparatus of Mr Mubarak
is well equipped and more experienced at quashing dissent.
Yemen
There have been several days of protests in Yemen - the Arab world's most impoverished
nation, where nearly half of the population lives on less than $2 a day.
Youths and opposition groups have taken to the streets of the capital, Sanaa, and the
southern city of Aden demanding the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh - in power
for nearly 32 years.
In an effort to defuse the unrest, Mr Saleh announced on 23 January that he had ordered
income tax to be halved and instructed the government to control prices of basic
commodities. He also denied allegations that he was planning to hand over power to his
son, Ahmed.
The government also released 36 people jailed for participating in the unrest, including the
prominent human rights activist, Tawakul Karman.
But at the same time, the president has increased the salaries of state employees and
armed forces personnel - a step apparently meant to ensure their loyalty - and deployed
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BBC News - Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?
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riot police and soldiers in key areas.
Algeria
As the winter protests escalated in Tunisia, its western neighbour also saw large numbers
of young people taking to the streets. As in Tunisia, the trigger appeared to be economic
grievances - in particular sharp increases in the price of food.
A state of emergency has been in place in Algeria since 1992, and public demonstrations
in the capital have been banned. There are regular impromptu protests elsewhere in the
country, but in recent weeks these broke out simultaneously across Algeria for the first
time, including in the capital, Algiers. There have been reports of self-immolations, too.
However, the protests have not escalated in the same way as in Tunisia, something that
analysts have attributed to the relatively restrained response of the security forces, as well
as the government's intervention to limit price rises.
Algeria's government has considerable wealth from the export of oil and gas and is trying
to tackle social and economic complaints with a huge public spending programme. But
grievances remain, including anger over unemployment, corruption, bureaucracy, and a
lack of political reform.
Algeria's tumultuous recent history stands in stark contrast to Tunisia's. It had its own
opening up of the political system in 1988, resulting in the loosening of restrictions on the
media and multi-party elections. This in turn led to a bloody conflict between security
forces and Islamist rebels.
Libya
"There is none better than Zine to govern Tunisia. Tunisia now lives in fear."
Libyan leader Muammar Gadaffi's sharp reaction on Saturday to the overthrow of
President Ben Ali would seem to reflect his own nervousness about a possible domino
effect.
After 41 years in power, Col Gadaffi is the longest serving ruler in Africa and the Middle
East, and also one of the most autocratic.
Protest of any kind is strictly prohibited, but even so there were reports of unrest over the
weekend in the city of al-Bayda.
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BBC News - Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?
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However, Libya has a much smaller population and huge oil wealth.
Jordan
Thousands staged protests across Jordan in a "day of rage" on Saturday in protest against
rising food prices and unemployment. Some demanded the resignation of Prime Minister
Samir Rifai.
The government had last week slashed prices on certain foods and fuels, but the
protesters say more needs to be done to tackle poverty caused by inflation.
But Jordan is run by a royal family, and some sections of society are loyal to the
monarchy. King Abdullah II, who acceded to the throne in 1999, himself appears so far to
have escaped most of the wrath of the protesters.
And so far protests have been peaceful and there have been no arrests.
Morocco
Like Tunisia, Morocco has been facing economic problems and allegations of corruption in
ruling circles.
Morocco's reputation was damaged after Wikileaks revealed allegations of increased
corruption, in particular the royal family's business affairs and the "appalling greed" of
people close to King Mohammed VI.
Wikileaks cables from the US embassy in Tunis have cited similar problems in President
Ben Ali's inner circle.
But Morocco, like Egypt and Algeria, does allow limited freedom of expression and has so
far been able to contain protests.
Like Jordan it is a monarchy with strong support among sections of the public.
Middle East social indicators
Country pop. (m) median age jobless (%)
below poverty
line (%)
Algeria 34.5 27.1 9.9 23 4.7
internet users
(m)
Egypt 80.5 24 9.6 20 20
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BBC News - Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?
28/01/11 15:46
Jordan 6.4 21.8 13.4 14.2 1.6
Lebanon 4.09 29.4 na 28 1
Libya 6.4 24.2 30 33 0.35
Morocco 31.6 26.5 9.8 15 13.2
Saudi Arabia 25.7 24.9 10.8 na 9.6
Syria 22.1 21.5 8.3 11.9 4.4
Tunisia 10.5 29.7 14 3.8 3.5
W Bank & Gaza 2.5 20.9 16.5 46 1.3
Yemen 23.4 17.89 35 45.2 2.2
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