the PUZZLE THE OIL - Elliott Wave International

the
THE
OILPUZZLE
INVITATION TO THE SEMINAR
Fact, Fiction, Forecast of the future of the oil market

THE FUTURE OF OIL
PRICES - HOW LIKELY
IS IT THAT OIL PRICES
WILL RISE TO $ 100
PER BARREL?
Ladies and Gentlemen!
Will oil prices rise or fall over the next weeks, months, years, decades?
What economic, as well as social, environmental and geopolitical
consequences, arise from huge changes in oil prices? Have global oil
reserves peaked? Are there realistic alternatives to oil that can come
online fast enough to avoid major economic and social disruptions
from declining oil?
On March 16 and 17, 2006, the Oil Puzzle conference will give answers to
these and many associated questions. This symposium of the Kenos Circle
is aimed to provide essential information about the future of oil not only for
oil consumers and all economic sectors dependent on oil price movement,
but also at business enterprises, power companies, and energy investors.
Reserve your ticket, so as not to miss this international event.
John Casti
Präsident The Kenos Circle

PROGRAMME
DAY 1 _ 16. March 2006
Börsegebäude, 1010 Vienna, Wipplingerstraße 34
09.00 - 09.30 Opening Remarks The Kenos Circle
09.30 - 10.00 Keynote Address
Mohammed S. Barkindo, Acting Secretary-General, OPEC, Vienna
10.00 - 10.30 “Historical Perspective of Oil Infrastructure and Oil Prices, 1985-present”
10.30 - 11.00 Coffee Break
Thomas Seifert, Die Presse, Vienna
11.00 - 12.00 “Scenarios for the World of 2025”
12.00 - 13.00 Lunch
Michael Loescher, Copernicus Group, Inc., USA
13.00 - 14.30 “Will Oil Prices Rise Beyond 100 $ per Barrel Over the Next Five Years?”
Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International, USA
14.30 - 15.00 Coffee Break
15.00 - 16.00 „Risk I: Geopolitical Risks”
Terry Hallmark, IHS Energy, Houston
16.00 - 17.30 “Oil Price Hedging and Risk Management”
Michael Zillner, Merit, Vienna
Keith FitzGerald, FitzGerald Research, USA
Evening Event: Cocktailparty
DAY 2 _ 17. March 2006
Börsegebäude, 1010 Vienna, Wipplingerstraße 34
09.00 - 10.30 “Have Global Oil Reserves ‘Peaked’ ?”
10.30 - 11.00 Coffee Break
Thomas Gaebler, OMV, Vienna
11.00 - 12.30 “Are There Alternative Energy Sources that Can Realistically be Expected to
Play a Major Role in Energy Supply Within the Next 25 Years?”
12.30 - 13.30 Lunch
Christoph Chorherr, Die Grünen, Vienna
13.30 - 14.30 Risk II: Social, Technological, and Environmental Risks”
14.30 - 15.00 Coffee
tentative: Matthias Horx, Author and futurist
15.00 - 16.00 “Oil World”: A Large-Scale Simulation of the Oil Industry
Ugur Bilge, SimWorld, London
16.00 - 17.00 „Complexity Science and the Oil Puzzle”
John Casti, Wissenschaftzentrum Wien and Kenos Circle, Vienna
17.00 - 17.30 Closing Remark

SPEAKERS
1 John Casti
Professor of system theory and researcher in
complexity science at the Santa Fe Institute and the
Wissenschaftzentrum Wien. Author of many technical
monographs on complexity and computer simulation,
as well as a number of popular-science expositions
on the subject, including Paradigms Lost, Would-Be
Worlds, and Complexifi cation.
2 Michael Zillner
Founder and CEO of Merit, a leading fi rm of alternative
investments and risk management. Lecturer for
derivate instruments at the Economic University of
Vienna. Author of many publications in national
and international mediums.
3 Michael Loescher
CEO of The Copernicus Group of Washington DC, Inc.
Copernicus is a small, highly focused, fi rm, that
specializes in helping commercial and governmental
clients develop and implement strategies to mitigate
future risk. He served as chief advisor to the Secretary
of the Navy and Deputy CIO from 1995-1998.
He was a principal drafter of the present US Department
of Defense Network-Centric Warfare doctrine.
He teaches and lectures regularly both in the US and
overseas. He is the author of a number of books and
papers, including Proteus ...Insights from 2020, which
details the fi ndings of the largest scenario-based
planning project in the US government history.
4 Keith FitzGerald
Founder and Managing Director of FitzGerald Research,
LLC, a leading fi rm in the USA for futures options and
portfolio management based on the theory of fractals.
He is also editor of The Skeptical Investor, a prominent
independent investment newsletter
5 Robert Prechter
Founder of Elliott Wave International, Inc. and The
Socionomics Institute. Author of 13 books on fi nance and
social dynamics. Has received awards for analytical work,
market timing and trading. President of the Market
Technicans Association and mega-bestseller author of
the book Conquer the Crash.
6 Thomas Seifert
International Correspondent for Die Presse, Austria’s
largest daily news paper. He is the co-author of the
bestseller, Schwarzbuch Öl, a volume on the future of
the oil industry.
7 Matthias Horx
The most influential futurist in the German-speaking
world, Horx was interested in science-fi ction, value
change, youth cultures, new technologies, Matthias Horx
founded the Zukunftsinstitut in 1998.
8 Christoph Chorherr
Lekturer at various Universities like the Economic
University of Vienna and the Technical University of
Vienna. Representative of the political party
”Die Grünen” in Vienna.
9 Thomas Gaebler
Assistant to the executive board member of exploration
and production at OMV, the leading oil and gas group in
central europe.
10 Terry Hallmark
Director of Political Risk and Policy Assessment for
IHS Energy in Houston, Texas. Served as a consultant
to oil and gas exploration and service companies,
international fi nancial institutions and several
governmental agencies, including the U.S. intelligence
community and Department of Defense. Earned his
doctorate in political science at the Center for Politics
and Economics, Claremont Graduate University,
Claremont, California.
11 Ugur Bilge
Co-founder of SimWorld Ltd, a consultancy and
innovative solutions company in the area Agent based
Modell/Simulations (ABM). Modelling Expert for the
Integration of Social Systems (ICoSS) Project at London
School of Economics. Assistant Professor at the
Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics,
at Akdeniz University, in Antalya, Turkey.
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11

TOPICS
> This questions will be discussed in detail
WILL OIL PRICES EXCEED $ 100 PER BARREL OVER THE
NEXT FIVE YEARS?
The real Oil Puzzle is not supply, demand, and prices; rather, it is what people believe and expect
about supply, demand, and, thus, prices. And there are not enough actual facts to go
around. So individual assumptions, prejudices, hopes and fears have to be mixed with the limited
facts available to create a belief in what is real about the direction of the price of oil.
The one “fact” that everyone seems to agree upon is that the future demand for energy is not
going to decline. Under this assumption the oil price becomes simply a question of supply intimately
intertwined with the two associated Big Questions:
HAVE GLOBAL OIL RESERVES “PEAKED?”
ARE THERE REALISTIC ALTERNATIVES TO OIL?
There are many diverging answers to these questions, depending on the views and information
access of individuals. None of them are basically incorrect, rather some answers are simply
more likely than others. As a conference participant, you will see all plausible scenarios, along with
tools for evaluating their relative likelihood.
At the conference, you will learn how to separate the fact from the fiction in the Oil Puzzle, so
as to estimate realistically the situation for you and your business.
Of special interest are the risk management and the hedging instruments required to manage
your risk from oil price variations. You will receive a full exposition of the possibilities of different
instruments and risk-minimization concepts at the conference.
The complicated network of interactions among all players in the “game of oil” will be analyzed by
creation of an electronic copy of the entire oil industry. This “surrogate” Oil World then serves as
a basis for exploring What If? questions, such as
> What if natural gas takes a major share of the energy market
in the next decade? How does that impact my company/refinery/
country/...
> What if oil prices do rise to 100 $ per barrel? What will be the
economic, political, social consequences of this event?
> What if new reserves are discovered in China? How will that
influence the oil industry in the Persian Gulf?
> What if ...
A wise man once said, “A reasonable probability is the only certainty.”
And this leads to the goal of this conference:
Participants will be able to react to all conceivable future scenarios of
the oil market as precise as possible and flexible.

ANSWER FAX/INVITATION
ON A CERTAIN FUTURE!
o Yes, I would not like to miss the latest information about the future of the oil industry
and wish to order
Tickets (EUR 750,-)* for the two-day seminar “THE OIL PUZZLE” of
the Kenos Circle on 16-17 March 2006 in the Stock Exchange Building, Vienna.
*Reduction
Kenos Circle Members EUR 500,-
Students EUR 250,-
Company cards (up to 10 persons) EUR 2.500,-
Please note
For early registrations prior to 15 February 2006, there is 20 % “early-bird” reduction in price.
o
I am interested in the Kenos Circle. Please you send me documents.
Name
Sirname
Occupation/Function
Firm/Industry
Adress/ZIP Code
Telefon
Fax
Payment
o Invoice o Bank transfer**
Reduction for o Kenos Circle Members o Students o Company cards
Please mark
**Account name
Kenos Circle - Verein zur Förderung der strategischen Zukunftsplanung in Unternehmen
1010 Vienna, Schottenring 17
Account number: 51838 272 801
IBAN: AT23 1200 0518 3827 2801
BLZ: 12000
BIC: BKAUATWW
Signature
Place/Date
Plese completely fi ll out the answer fax and send it to + 43 1 317 35 00 18!
For further information please call +43 1 319 00 57 34.
Elliottwave.com
Registration for the Oil Puzzle conference ends 28.02.2006.
Please note that capacity is limited. Your registration will be confi rmed within 2 days by return fax.
You may either receive an invoice or pay via bank transfer. Payment must be made so that the amount
reaches our account at least 14 days prior to the conference.
In case of cancellation, registrants will receive an immediate refund of the sum already deposited less a service fee of EUR 80,-, if your
written cancellation reaches us at least 2 weeks prior to the conference. After that and/or in the event of the registrant not attending the
conference, there will be no refund. However, a registrant who cannot attend may designate a replacement participant at no extra charge.

VENUE
Börsegebäude
Wipplingerstraße 34
1010 Vienna, Austria
DATE
16 - 17 March 2006
ORGANIZER
The Kenos Circle
The Kenos Circle
Schottenring 17
1010 Vienna, Austria
conferences@kenos.at
www.kenos.at
Sponsored by
Risk Management