Burma Review 2013, Aung Din (Final).pdf

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Lapadaung Copper Mine in Monywar, Upper Burma 6 , and the Burma army’s increased offensives at Liaza, KIO Headquarter at China-Burma border, with the help of fighter jets and attack helicopters. We all wish Burma is better in 2013 and beyond. However, there are many challenges and obstacles ahead. There are three major areas without any changes. First, the judiciary system is still not independent and impartial. It is still working to serve the pleasure of the regime. Incompetent judges are running “kangaroo courts” with the support of corrupt and abusive law enforcement officers whose only way to get confession from the accused is detention, torture and manipulation. Many laws and decrees created by the successive military regimes to oppress democratic opposition are still active and being used. Second, the country’s economy is still dominated and controlled by the military, crony capitalists, and families of the regime. There is no chance for ordinary citizens to compete with them on a level playing field. And third, the Burmese military is still above the law and dominant in the country’s political affairs with unchecked powers. There is no sign in sight that the Burmese military will stop committing human rights violations and come under the civilian control. Burma’s Twelve Key Players Twelve key players will decorate Burma in 2013 with various activities, positive and negative. They are (1) President Thein Sein, (2) Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann, (3) Commander-in-Chief Deputy Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, (4) Chairperson of National League for Democracy Aung San Suu Kyi, (5) The 88 Generation Students Group, (6) Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), (7) Karen National Union (KNU), (8) United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), (9) United Wa State Army (UWSA), (10) crony capitalists, (11) media and (12) the peoples of Burma. Thein Sein, Shwe Mann and Min Aung Hlaing Thein Sein and Shwe Mann are former generals and powerful figures in the previous military regime, known as State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), and now serving as the President and the Speaker of the Lower House respectively, as well as leaders of the ruling party, USDP. Min Aung Hlaing, who was a junior general when Shwe Mann and Thein Sein were number 3rd and 4th in the SPDC, is now serving as the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces with Deputy Senior General Title. They are now running the three power centers, the government, the Parliament and the military, separately. Although Thein Sein is the President and the head of the government, he doesn’t own all of his cabinet. Three important ministries, Ministries of Defense, Home Affairs and Border Area Affairs are run by three generals appointed by Min Aung Hlaing. Shwe Mann is the head of the Lower House and going to become the Speaker of the Union Parliament (combination of the Lower House and Upper House) in June 2013. But, he doesn’t own the whole Parliament as well. 25% of representatives in the Union Parliament are military officials appointed by Min Aung Hlaing. The 2008 Constitution provides Min Aung Hlaing to run the military independently. Among the 11 members of the country’s most powerful body, National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), Min Aung Hlaing controls six members, himself and his deputy Commander-in-Chief, three ministers for Defense, Home Affairs, and Border Area Affairs, and a Vice President Nyan Tun, appointed by Min Aung Hlaing. 7 Apparently he is the most powerful person in Burma. 6 Violent Police Crackdown on Sit-in Protestors at Copper Mine, Eleven Media, January 8, 2013, http://elevenmyanmar.com/top-events-2012/events/2043-violent-police-crackdown-on-sit-in-protestors-at-copper-mine 7 Section 201, Formation of the National Defence and Security Council, Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (2008) 2 | P a g e
They all are on the same side, but in reality they are fighting each other. Thein Sein wants to consolidate the power at his presidency. But, he knows that he can’t have it without the support of Min Aung Hlaing. Shwe Mann has tried hard to undermine the Thein Sein’s presidency by using his parliamentary maneuvering and presented himself as the best candidate for the President after the 2015 election or even before 2015 if Thein Sein dies or is retired or removed from the power. He also knows that he can’t succeed without the support of Min Aung Hlaing. Therefore, they both are trying hard to win Min Aung Hlaing, but they haven’t succeeded yet. It was a jump promotion for Min Aung Hlaing to be selected by Senior General Than Shwe to lead the military 8 . At the beginning of the establishment of new power structures, he was very quiet and unable to avoid the influence of Thein Sein and Shwe Mann who were more senior than him. Gradually, he seems to realize the magnitude of his power given by the 2008 constitution. He had started to consolidate his power base in the military by replacing some regional commanders and top military figures, who were contemporary with him, with his loyalists. Now, he knows very well that he is much more powerful than Thein Sein and Shwe Mann and he is exercising his power by not listening to their orders. He doesn’t need to get involved in the competition between Thein Sein and Shwe Mann. He doesn’t need to support anyone, but he will oppose anyone who will try to amend the 2008 constitution that gives him supreme power and who will try to attack Senior General Than Shwe who gave him this position. 9 Although they are competing for consolidation of power, they all have one thing in common. They all know that they need to use Aung San Suu Kyi to some extent. Thein Sein knows that giving her some political space will be good to normalize relations with western democracies who were major critics of the military regime’s human rights violation and had imposed economic sanctions. Shwe Mann also knows that giving her some leading role in the Lower House 10 will help strengthen promoting his image and his dream for the presidency. Min Aung Hlaing also knows that recruiting her to lead the Investigative Commission on Mount Latpadaung Copper Mine Project will be a good chance to save the military-owned business empire and its joint-venture projects with Chinese companies from public criticism and protests. 11 Aung San Suu Kyi She was once a unique leader of Burma’s democracy movement and respected by almost the entire population, including ethnic nationalities. It is not true anymore. She has transformed herself from the role of the national leader to a politician and a leader of a political party. After winning in the 2012 byelection, she became a Member of Parliament (MP) representing one of the 330 townships and a leader of small minority MPs. By accepting the Chairmanship of the Lower House Committee on Rule of Law and Tranquility, she became a part of the government and an ally of the ruling party. Her reluctance to 8 Min Aung Hlaing, New C-i-C, by Hla Oo, http://hlaoo1980.blogspot.com/p/general-min-aung-hlaing.html 9 Myanmar General Defends Military’s Political Role, AP, March 27, 2012, http://news.yahoo.com/myanmar-generaldefends-militarys-political-role-061046525.html 10 Aung San Suu Kyi to Head “Rule of Law” Committee, The Irrawaddy, August 7, 2012, http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/11057 11 “Monywar Inquiry Commission Reduces in Numbers and Powers, Mizzima News, December 7, 2012, http://www.mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/8503-monywa-inquiry-commission-reduced-in-numbers-and-powers.html 3 | P a g e
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Burma Review 2013, Aung Din (Final).pdf

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