Burma Review 2013, Aung Din (Final).pdf

BURMA REVIEW 2013
Aung Din
Burma in 2012
The 2012 was an important year for Burma, a Southeast Asia country with population of approximately
60 million and also known as Myanmar, with significant and dramatic changes. The Military regime that
ruled the country for many decades devolved. The undemocratic constitution, which was adopted by
force and fraud in 2008, came into effect through the 2010 election, which placed the military-backed
Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in power. Burma’s democratic opposition is now
working within the new political system. The National League for Democracy (NLD) party, led by
Aung San Suu Kyi, has joined the Parliament through the by-election in April 2012. Ethnic politicians
who boycotted the 2010 election have formed political parties and are prepared to stand in future
elections. Workers are allowed to form trade unions 1 and peoples are allowed to stage peaceful protest 2
subject to advance permission.
President Thein Sein, a former general and who led the so-called civilian government, is now being
praised by the people inside and outside the country as a pragmatic reformist. The Union Parliament,
known as Pyidaungsu Hluttaw and controlled by active and retired military officials, is actively working
and making laws. Hundreds of political prisoners were free. Media restrictions have been eased and
private newspapers will be allowed to publish soon. 3
Most of the ethnic resistance groups have entered into a ceasefire agreements with the regime, but the
Burmese military, known as Tatmadaw, has been fighting against Kachin Independence Organization
(KIO) in Kachin State and Northern Shan State, since July 2010 resulting in more than 120,000
internally displaced persons. 4 Most of the ethnic armies want to continue peace talks with the regime
collectively. However, their expectation to have a meaningful political dialogue and sustained political
solution are far away from reality while they are forced to open their areas for economic advancement
and development projects.
Violence has erupted in Rakhine State, western part of Burma, between the Rakhine Buddhist
community and the Muslim community, known as the Rohingya, since May 2012 and continued to this
day with the great loss of hundreds of lives, thousands of houses and properties, and more than one
hundred thousand peoples displaced. 5
President Obama made the year 2012 more important and historic for Burma. He became the first ever
sitting U.S. President who visited Burma by making a six hour visit to the country in November on his
way to Cambodia to attend the East Asia Summit. Burma’s 2012 finally ended with the government’s
brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrators, mostly Buddhist Monks, at the protest camps at the Mount
1 Law regarding formation of labor organizations, Pyidaungsu Hluttaw Law No. 7, 2011, October 11, 2011
2 Law regarding Peaceful Assembly and Peaceful Marching, Pyidaungsu Hluttaw Law No. 15, 2011, December 2, 2011
3 Govt Gives “Green Light” to Public Dailies, Eleven Media, December 28, 2012, http://elevenmyanmar.com/national/1918-
govt-gives-green-light-to-private-dailies
4 BURMA: Fresh air strikes death in Kachin State as “Humanitarian Crises” loom, Amnesty International, January 16, 2013,
http://www.amnesty.org.uk/news_details.asp?NewsID=20566
5 Humanitarian crisis for Burma’s eternal outsiders, The Age, December 26, 2012,
http://www.theage.com.au/world/humanitarian-crisis-for-burmas-eternal-outsiders-20121225-2bv7x.html
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Lapadaung Copper Mine in Monywar, Upper Burma 6 , and the Burma army’s increased offensives at
Liaza, KIO Headquarter at China-Burma border, with the help of fighter jets and attack helicopters.
We all wish Burma is better in 2013 and beyond. However, there are many challenges and obstacles
ahead. There are three major areas without any changes. First, the judiciary system is still not
independent and impartial. It is still working to serve the pleasure of the regime. Incompetent judges are
running “kangaroo courts” with the support of corrupt and abusive law enforcement officers whose only
way to get confession from the accused is detention, torture and manipulation. Many laws and decrees
created by the successive military regimes to oppress democratic opposition are still active and being
used. Second, the country’s economy is still dominated and controlled by the military, crony capitalists,
and families of the regime. There is no chance for ordinary citizens to compete with them on a level
playing field. And third, the Burmese military is still above the law and dominant in the country’s
political affairs with unchecked powers. There is no sign in sight that the Burmese military will stop
committing human rights violations and come under the civilian control.
Burma’s Twelve Key Players
Twelve key players will decorate Burma in 2013 with various activities, positive and negative. They are
(1) President Thein Sein, (2) Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann, (3) Commander-in-Chief Deputy
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, (4) Chairperson of National League for Democracy Aung San Suu
Kyi, (5) The 88 Generation Students Group, (6) Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), (7) Karen
National Union (KNU), (8) United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), (9) United Wa State Army
(UWSA), (10) crony capitalists, (11) media and (12) the peoples of Burma.
Thein Sein, Shwe Mann and Min Aung Hlaing
Thein Sein and Shwe Mann are former generals and powerful figures in the previous military regime,
known as State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), and now serving as the President and the
Speaker of the Lower House respectively, as well as leaders of the ruling party, USDP. Min Aung
Hlaing, who was a junior general when Shwe Mann and Thein Sein were number 3rd and 4th in the
SPDC, is now serving as the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces with Deputy Senior General
Title. They are now running the three power centers, the government, the Parliament and the military,
separately. Although Thein Sein is the President and the head of the government, he doesn’t own all of
his cabinet. Three important ministries, Ministries of Defense, Home Affairs and Border Area Affairs
are run by three generals appointed by Min Aung Hlaing. Shwe Mann is the head of the Lower House
and going to become the Speaker of the Union Parliament (combination of the Lower House and Upper
House) in June 2013. But, he doesn’t own the whole Parliament as well. 25% of representatives in the
Union Parliament are military officials appointed by Min Aung Hlaing. The 2008 Constitution provides
Min Aung Hlaing to run the military independently. Among the 11 members of the country’s most
powerful body, National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), Min Aung Hlaing controls six
members, himself and his deputy Commander-in-Chief, three ministers for Defense, Home Affairs, and
Border Area Affairs, and a Vice President Nyan Tun, appointed by Min Aung Hlaing. 7 Apparently he is
the most powerful person in Burma.
6 Violent Police Crackdown on Sit-in Protestors at Copper Mine, Eleven Media, January 8, 2013,
http://elevenmyanmar.com/top-events-2012/events/2043-violent-police-crackdown-on-sit-in-protestors-at-copper-mine
7 Section 201, Formation of the National Defence and Security Council, Constitution of the Republic of the Union of
Myanmar (2008)
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They all are on the same side, but in reality they are fighting each other. Thein Sein wants to consolidate
the power at his presidency. But, he knows that he can’t have it without the support of Min Aung
Hlaing. Shwe Mann has tried hard to undermine the Thein Sein’s presidency by using his parliamentary
maneuvering and presented himself as the best candidate for the President after the 2015 election or
even before 2015 if Thein Sein dies or is retired or removed from the power. He also knows that he can’t
succeed without the support of Min Aung Hlaing. Therefore, they both are trying hard to win Min Aung
Hlaing, but they haven’t succeeded yet.
It was a jump promotion for Min Aung Hlaing to be selected by Senior General Than Shwe to lead the
military 8 . At the beginning of the establishment of new power structures, he was very quiet and unable
to avoid the influence of Thein Sein and Shwe Mann who were more senior than him. Gradually, he
seems to realize the magnitude of his power given by the 2008 constitution. He had started to
consolidate his power base in the military by replacing some regional commanders and top military
figures, who were contemporary with him, with his loyalists. Now, he knows very well that he is much
more powerful than Thein Sein and Shwe Mann and he is exercising his power by not listening to their
orders. He doesn’t need to get involved in the competition between Thein Sein and Shwe Mann. He
doesn’t need to support anyone, but he will oppose anyone who will try to amend the 2008 constitution
that gives him supreme power and who will try to attack Senior General Than Shwe who gave him this
position. 9
Although they are competing for consolidation of power, they all have one thing in common. They all
know that they need to use Aung San Suu Kyi to some extent. Thein Sein knows that giving her some
political space will be good to normalize relations with western democracies who were major critics of
the military regime’s human rights violation and had imposed economic sanctions. Shwe Mann also
knows that giving her some leading role in the Lower House 10 will help strengthen promoting his image
and his dream for the presidency. Min Aung Hlaing also knows that recruiting her to lead the
Investigative Commission on Mount Latpadaung Copper Mine Project will be a good chance to save the
military-owned business empire and its joint-venture projects with Chinese companies from public
criticism and protests. 11
Aung San Suu Kyi
She was once a unique leader of Burma’s democracy movement and respected by almost the entire
population, including ethnic nationalities. It is not true anymore. She has transformed herself from the
role of the national leader to a politician and a leader of a political party. After winning in the 2012 byelection,
she became a Member of Parliament (MP) representing one of the 330 townships and a leader
of small minority MPs. By accepting the Chairmanship of the Lower House Committee on Rule of Law
and Tranquility, she became a part of the government and an ally of the ruling party. Her reluctance to
8 Min Aung Hlaing, New C-i-C, by Hla Oo, http://hlaoo1980.blogspot.com/p/general-min-aung-hlaing.html
9 Myanmar General Defends Military’s Political Role, AP, March 27, 2012, http://news.yahoo.com/myanmar-generaldefends-militarys-political-role-061046525.html
10 Aung San Suu Kyi to Head “Rule of Law” Committee, The Irrawaddy, August 7, 2012,
http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/11057
11 “Monywar Inquiry Commission Reduces in Numbers and Powers, Mizzima News, December 7, 2012,
http://www.mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/8503-monywa-inquiry-commission-reduced-in-numbers-and-powers.html
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call to stop wars in Kachin State 12 , her refusal to get involved to find peaceful solution in Rakhine State,
and her failure to denounce the Burmese military for its human rights violations in ethnic areas
effectively made ethnic populations to reduce their love and reliance on her.
She is still popular among ordinary citizens as the Burma’s most famous celebrity or personality cult,
but not among many democracy activists and civil society leaders. Her party, the NLD, is in chaos 13 .
While the party leaders have recruited new members who are rich, famous, well-educated, and wellconnected,
old members who sacrificed their lives for the party over 20 years and were tortured and
imprisoned by the military regime are being marginalized and driven out from the party 14 . Meanwhile,
her relations with crony capitalists have been growing. Well-known cronies and those who are under the
United States and EU’s targeted sanctions are now major contributors of her party and her social
activities. 15 While she has enjoyed VIP treatment from the government, cronies, and in the Parliament in
Naypyitaw, her party headquarters in Rangoon is kind of leaderless, struggling with lack of policy, unity
and clear direction, except selling posters and postcards with her photos.
It is still possible that if the election in 2015 is free and fair, her party may capture a majority of seats in
the Lower House and Upper House. Although she can’t be the President as the constitution rendered her
ineligible, she will have chances to install a new civilian government with her party members and
control the Parliament as a Speaker. Now is the time for her to solidify and strengthen the party
membership with already-tested peoples, organize an effective coalition with other democracy and
ethnic parties, develop strategy to win majority in the upcoming elections, and train and groom a group
of leaders who may become new president and cabinet members after the election. Instead, she has now
focused more on claiming unrealistically that she wants to be the President. 16
Although she has offered olive branch to the military many times with beautiful words, she didn’t have
positive response yet. She asked Shwe Mann to include military representatives in her Rule of Law
Committee, but Min Aung Hlaing didn’t allow it. She asked General Way Lwin, Minister of Defense, to
work with her in the Investigative Commission on Mount Latpadaung Copper Mine Project as the
secretary of the Commission, but he turned down her offer. Although she met with Thein Sein and Shwe
Mann several times, she still doesn’t have a chance to meet Min Aung Hlaing yet.
The 88 Generation Students Group 17
This is the second most popular activist group in Burma after Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD. Leaders
of the group who had organized the nationwide popular democracy uprising in 1988 at the age of 20
something and spent over decades in prisons are now around 50-year old mature leaders of the country’s
12 Open Letter to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from Kachin Organizations, January 10, 2013,
http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5193:follow-up-open-letter-to-daw-aung-sansuu-kyi-from-kachin-organizations-january-10th&catid=102:mailbox&Itemid=279
13 Suu Kyi Exposes Local “Disunity” in NLD Party, Mizzima News, October 12, 2012, http://www.mizzima.com/news/insideburma/8217-suu-kyi-exposes-local-disunity-in-nld-party.html
14 500 NLD Members Quit in Pathein, The Irrawaddy, October 23, 2012, http://www.irrawaddy.org/?slide=500-nldmembers-to-quit-in-pathein
15 Suu Kyi’s Links to Notorious Burmese Weapons Dealer Exposed? By Francis Wade in Eurasia Review, January 15, 2013,
http://www.mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/8503-monywa-inquiry-commission-reduced-in-numbers-and-powers.html
16 Aung San Suu Kyi Eyes Burmese Presidency, CBC News, October 8, 2012,
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/10/08/burma-suu-kyi-presidency.html
17 88 Generation Students Group, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/88_Generation_Students_Group and Profile: 88
Generation Students, BBC, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6958363.stm
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civil society. Their enormous sacrifices and relentless effort in campaigning for open and peaceful
society in Burma have gained the public’s admiration and reliance. Their numerous attempts to stop
wars in Kachin State and violence in Rakhine State have gained the trust of ethnic populations. Their
consistent stands for the oppressed peoples and fearless confrontation against injustice have earned the
respect of the authorities.
(Members of The 88 Generation Students group met General Gwan Maw, Deputy Chief of Staff, Kachin
Independence Army, at Laiza, KIA HQ on January 3, 2013, as a Part of Their Effort to End the War in
Kachin State)
They know that they can’t go on like this for a long time. This is a group of friends who have different
aspirations but united in their common belief for democracy and human rights. They have to choose to
build a political platform soon as the 2015 election is nearer. Some of the group might choose to
continue to work as a civil society organization, but some of them will have to choose to set up a
political party or join in some political parties as they want to play more in the political field. They are
also needed to join in the country’s existing political system as they have no choice, but to work within
the Parliament to amend the Constitution. 2013 will be the time the group has to choose their paths
clearly.
There is a temptation that they should join the NLD. The people think that they will be welcomed by the
NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi if they join the NLD as they want to see them working together under the
same flag with Aung San Suu Kyi. But, in reality, the opposite is true. Many leaders of the NLD,
including Aung San Suu Kyi, feel threatened by the group’s prominence. They see the group as a third
force created by the government to undermine their party. Some members of the NLD even think that
the group is competing with Aung San Suu Kyi. The NLD Central Executive Committee issued an order
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to its township offices few months ago, stating that they are not allowed to host any meetings with non-
NLD members at their offices, when the 88 group leaders have been traveling all over the country to
campaign for open and peaceful society.
The group members also understand that they will be buried at mid-level positions if they join the NLD
and their prominence and effectiveness will be restricted under Aung San Suu Kyi’s leadership. But, if
they choose to form a new political party, they will be accused by supporters of the NLD as creating
rivalry of their party. Such a move may confirm some thinking that they are supported by the
government to undermine the role of Aung San Suu Kyi.
However, the time has come to the group to decide how they will move forward. There are many
peoples, even some members of the NLD and some political parties who are willing to work with them
in their political party. In 1988, they were student leaders who had initiated the nationwide popular
democracy uprising and brought millions of the peoples from all walks of life to the street to call for
political change in their country. They had responsibly transferred the leadership of the movement to the
veteran politicians, including Aung San Suu Kyi, with the belief that these national leaders would bring
about the change to the country and end the military dictatorship. 24 years had been passed. The military
is still in power with the constitution that grantees their permanent rule and protection from any harms.
They should stop believing and relying on these politicians. They should become politicians themselves
to finish the job they have started 24 years ago for the sake of the country they love and the peoples they
stand for.
(Members of the 88 Generation Students group led by Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi meet Philippine
Military Commander in Chief Lt. General Emmanuel T Bautista in Manila, The Philippines, January 15,
2013)
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Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Karen National Union (KNU), United
Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC)
In January 1995, when the KNU was under heavy attack and its Marnepalaw Headquarters was overrun
by the Burmese military, the KIO was enjoying benefit of ceasefire agreement with the Burmese
military regime, actively pursuing business opportunities and making the leaders super rich. The KNU
was helpless and hopeless as its ethnic allies in Democratic Alliance of Burma (DAB), including KIO,
broke their promise of defending the regime together. History repeats in January 2013, while KIO
Headquarters in Laiza was being under attack by the Burmese military every day with heavy artilleries
and air strikes, newly elected KNU leaders enjoyed the red-carpet treatment hosted by President Thein
Sein 18 and Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing 19 separately in Nay Pyi Taw. KIO may lose its
Headquarters soon, but its ethnic allies including KNU from the new coalition of 11 ethnic resistance
armies, known as United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), are very busy enjoying improved
relations with the Burmese government, expanding their business opportunities, and fighting within their
own group.
(Kachin refugee children sleeping in a bomb shelter in Laiza, KIO Headquarters on December 29, 2012,
Photo Credit The Ittawaddy)
UNFC is a coalition of 11 ethnic armed resistance groups including (1) Karen National Union (KNU),
(2) Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), (3) Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), (4) Shan
State Progressive Party (SSPP), (5) New Mon State Party (NMSP), (6) Arakan National Council (ANC),
(7) Pa-Oh National Liberation Organization (PNLO), (8) Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF), (9)
Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), (10) Wa National Organization (WNO), and (11) Chin National Front
(CNF). Except KIO, the rest have accepted ceasefire agreement, completed state-level discussion, and
have started union-level talk with the Burmese government individually. On January 10, 2013, after its
18 President, KNU Leaders Discuss to End Kachin Conflict, Eleven Media, January 7, 2013,
http://elevenmyanmar.com/politics/2022-president-karen-ethnic-leaders-discuss-to-end-kachin-conflict
19 When the Gun Stops, The Talk Can Begin: The Irrawaddy, January 12, 2013, http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/23868
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annual meeting at a place on Thai-Burma, UNFC issued a statement claiming that they would not accept
any talk and agreement with the government individually and that UNFC is the sole negotiation body
with the Burmese government on behalf of the 11 ethnic armed groups. 20 They also claimed that “war
against any ethnic nationality is tantamount to war against all of them.” 21 This statement is supposed to
end effectively all individual ceasefire agreements and push the Burmese government to end its attack
against KIO and conduct political dialogue with the UNFC as a whole as soon as possible. However,
whether its member organizations will abide such statement is still in doubt based on their past
statements that failed to implement.
They all know very well that the “divide and rule” is the policy of successive military regimes in Burma
in dealing with ethnic minorities. And it always works, because ethnic resistance armies are always
divided among the groups and within the group even without outside pressure. From the beginning of
civil wars in 1948 to this day, there were so many coalitions of ethnic armies founded to fight the
Burmese military together, and fought each other, and collapsed.
However, they still hold some leverage. Although they agree to accept the ceasefire, they don’t accept
the proposal made by President Thein Sein for making peace completely. They were asked to dismantle
their armies, form political parties, contest in elections, and amend the constitution after they gain seats
in the parliament. Recently, President repeated it to the KNU’s new President General Mutu that the
Parliament is the best venue to have political dialogue. All ethnic groups want to have political
discussion and mutually-acceptable solution that will grantee their rights first before abolishing their
armies and joining in the parliament. They still stand firm on this demand although they are not well
united. 22
Further, these ethnic armies will not be diminished by military action and incomplete peace making.
They will continue to survive. All of their troops will not join on the side of the Burmese army or
surrender their weapons. They may be weaken, have fewer troops and lose many of their posts. They
still can run guerrilla warfare and disturb peace and stability of the country for many years. The
mutually-acceptable political solution developed from the meaningful dialogue between the Burmese
government and these ethnic armies, and amendment to the constitution to grantee their rights by the
existing Parliament are the only means to end decades-old civil war in Burma, diminish these ethnic
armies forever, and improve the rights and opportunities of ethnic minorities.
United Wa State Party/Army (UWSP/A) 23
There was no significant action of UWSA in 2012. However, the strongest ethnic army had been
working hard to expand its authorities and areas it controls quietly. Actually, UWSA, which emerged
from the collapse of the Burma Communist Party (BCP) in 1989 and notorious for its drug production
20 United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) Annual Meeting Statement, January 10, 2013
21 United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) Press Release, January 9, 2013
22 Letter of UNFC Chairman to President U Thein Sein, September 27, 2012 and Ethnic Groups Agree Six-Point Peace Plan,
The Irrawaddy, September 17, 2012, http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/14188
23 United Wa State Army, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Wa_State_Army and Soldiers of Fortune, Andrew
Marshall and Anthony Davis, December 16, 2002, Time Magazine,
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,397549,00.html
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and trafficking, is actually everybody’s concern, both the Burmese government and other ethnic groups,
especially the Shans. 24
UWSA is used to be a major ally of the Burmese military government. 25 Its mutiny at the Pansam
(Panghsang) Headquarter helped the collapse of Burma Communist Party, arch enemy of the Burmese
military, in 1989. It was the first ever ethnic armed group that established ceasefire agreement with the
Burmese military regime. Since then it was allowed to control the territory in Shan State, known as Shan
State (North) Special Region (2) and make businesses freely with special privileges, including drug
trade. UWSA’s business group, named Hong Pang Group 26 , is one of the largest conglomerates in
Burma and in control of several business sectors, including construction, gems and minerals, hotels,
logging, petroleum, electronic and telecommunications, department stores, factories, banks, and private
airline 27 .
UWSA also helped Burmese military in fighting against Shan State Army (SSA) in Southern Shan State
during 1996-1997 which led to the surrender of drug lord Khun Sa and his Mong Tai Army. It also
participated in the regime’s national convention and in exchange for its loyalty, the Burmese military
regime created a “Wa’ Self-Administered Division” with six townships in Northern Shan State in the
2008 Constitution. 28
However, tension between the Burmese regime and UWSA has heightened since 2009. UWSA refused
to accept the regime’s plan to reduce the size of its troops, transform them as Border Guard Forces
(BGF) and put them under the command of the Burmese army. 29 It does not accept the status of “Wa’
Self-Administered Division” and area given by the constitution. It wants the status of “State” and more
areas. According to the 2008 Constitution, six townships in Northern Shan State at the China-Burma
border, Hopang, Mongma, Panwai, Nahpan, Metman and Pangsang (Pankham), are grouped as two
districts and designated as “Wa’ Self-Administered Division”, although Hopang and Metman are not
under the control of UWSA. But, UWSA wants more townships, including Mong Pauk in Northern Shan
State and three townships in Southern Shan State on the Thai-Burma border, currently under their
control. UWSA declared its territory in Northern and Southern Shan State as “Wa State Government
Special Administrative Region” 30 in 2009, which effectively made the Burmese government and Shan
peoples extremely nervous and concerned. 31
24 Wa Insurgency, Drugs and the United Wa State Army by Jeffrey Hays,
http://factsanddetails.com/Asian.php?itemid=2733&catid=66&subcatid=417
25 Shan State North Special Region 2 Opposes Every Act by United States, New Light of Myanmar, October 2, 2006,
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/myanmar_information/message/13456
26 The Hong Pang Group by Maxmilian Wechsler, Bangkok Post, July 6, 2008,
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/burmanewsgroup/message/5033
27 Wa Army-Linked Air Line to Fly Again, DVB, September 26, 2011, http://www.dvb.no/news/wa-army-linked-airline-to-flyagain/17834
28 Section 56 (f), Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (2008)
29 Drug, Guns and War in Myanmar by Brian McCartan, Asia Times Online, November 4, 2009,
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KK04Ae02.html
30 Wa State, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wa_State and UWSP Proposes Wa Autonomous Region, The
Irrawaddy, January 5, 2009, http://www2.irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=14874
31 Nay Pyi Taw Turns down Wa’s Latest Proposal, Shan Herald, April 10, 2010,
http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3000:naypyitaw-turns-down-was-latestproposal&catid=85:politics&Itemid=266
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The Election Commission was not able to hold elections in these townships designated as “Wa Self-
Administrative Division” in the 2010 election and the 2012 by-election, as UWSA refused to contest in
and allow holding elections in its controlled area.
It seems that UWSA will not change its demands and abandon the areas its control. Its army is now at
the strength of 30,000 permanent soldiers and 10,000 militias, well equipped, experienced and
disciplined and with modern weapons, including armored vehicles and ground-to-surface missiles.
Although it does not have a good relation with the Burmese government at this time, it doesn’t join with
other ethnic armed groups in the UNFC as well.
(Map of Wa State in Red Color, as Claimed by UWSP/A)
Shan State 32 is the largest state in Burma with area more than 60,000 square miles and nearly five
million populations. Although the Shans are major residents of the state, there are many other ethnic
groups as well. Shan State is also home to several ethnic armies, including Shan State Army (North)
(SSA-N) (also known as Shan State Progressive Party), Shan State Army (South) (SSA-S) (also known
as Restoration Council of Shan State), United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance
Army (NDAA) (also known as Mong La group), Kachin Defense Army (KDA), Pa-Oh National
Liberation Organization (PNLO), Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF), Wa National Organization
(WNO), and Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), all of which want a piece of the state as their own territory
with state-level status.
Except UWSA and its major allies, Mong La Group and SSA-N, other ethnic armies in Shan State are
members of UNFC and UWSA’s unilateral declaration of “Wa State” with areas in Southern and
Northern Shan State, which cover some of the areas they belonged, is not acceptable for them.
Meanwhile, one of ethnic political parties in Burma, Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD),
led by prominent Shan leader and former political prisoner Hkun Htun Oo 33 , has been working to
organize an “All Shan State Conference”, scheduled in April 2013, with participation of all Shan state-
32 Shan State, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shan_State
33 Khun Htun Oo, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khun_Htun_Oo
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ased political parties, civil society organizations and armed resistance groups 34 . This planned
conference is a follow up of the “Shan Forum on Trust Building for Peace” held in Rangoon on
November 26-28, 2012 that had reiterated the call for a “genuinely” federal union. UWSA will be surely
invited to the Conference, but its participation in the Conference is still not clear yet.
Crony Capitalists
The year 2012 was a very good year for cronies, who become the richest persons in Southeast Asia after
assisting the generals in their oppression against the peoples and having benefits to control the country’s
economy for over 20 years in exchange for their loyalty to and wealth sharing with generals and their
families. As the country has embraced the new political system and new leaders applying new political
tactics, they also have adjusted themselves to be fit in the new playing field. They now become
Members of Parliament and leaders of USDP, cabinet ministers, presidential advisers, peace brokers,
members of Parliamentary Commission, and some even declare that they are philanthropists.
(Cronies Paid Respect to Senior General Than Shwe in 2010)
Their wealth and business empires are also greatly expanded as foreign investments returns to Burma
and export opportunities to international community have increased after the United States, EU, Canada
and Australia suspended or lifted economic and trade sanctions with the support of Aung San Suu Kyi.
For foreign investors, they have no choice, but to work them as they own most of the country’s land,
buildings, banks, factories and other economic resources as well as government connection.
They are also now favorites of Aung San Suu Kyi who said that “If those so-called cronies render
assistance for social work, we agree with them and [we welcome] their sincere contribution. Instead of
34 Tiger Head Meets Parties for Shan State Conference, Shan Herald, January 4, 2013,
http://www.english.panglong.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5179:tiger-head-meets-parties-forshan-state-conference&catid=85:politics&Itemid=266
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spending money for useless activities, the money can put to good use; it is a good idea,” 35 on January 9,
2013. Her party, the NLD, held a fund raising music concert for its education network on December 27
and 28, 2012 and it was sponsored by companies including Air Bagan and Asia Green Development
Bank (AGD), owned by the country’s business tycoon Tay Za, a close associate of former state head
Than Shwe, and Shwe Than Lwin-owned Sky Net. Shwe Than Lwin is multi Investments Company
with media business and under the EU’s targeted sanction. Those companies donated over US$240,000
(over 200 million kyats) for the education network of the NLD, in addition to venues for the NLD’s
press conference and other activities. 36 Two sweaters made by Aung San Suu Kyi when she was residing
in London thirty years ago, were auctioned at the event and two cronies won the bid with the highest
prices. She also visited her constituency, Kawt Hmu Township, with well-known crony Zaygabar Khin
Shwe and according to Khin Shwe, they consulted about regional development projects 37 . She visited a
children hospital in Rangoon built and donated by Zaw Zaw, Max Myanmar Group. 38
(Aung San Suu Kyi and Zaygabar Khin Shwe Walked around Kawt Hmu Township in Rangoon,
December 31, 2012, photo credit Agga Mahar Demo Fatty at
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151222846311374&set=pb.582151373.-
2207520000.1358453595&type=3&theater)
35 Cronies’ Contribution Acceptable; Suu Kyi, Asia One, January 11, 2013,
http://news.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20130111-394770.html
36 Myanmar Democracy Icon Suu Kyi Taps “Crony” Capitalists for Charity Fund, by Simon Montlake, Forbes, January 16,
2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmontlake/2013/01/16/myanmar-democracy-icon-suu-kyi-taps-crony-capitalistsfor-charity-funds/
37 http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151222846311374&set=pb.582151373.-
2207520000.1358453595&type=3&theater
38 Give Crony a Chance to Reform, Says Suu Kyi: The Irrawaddy, January 11, 2013,
http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/23820
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(Aung San Suu Kyi’s Meeting with Zaygabar Khin Shwe at Kawt Hmu Township, December 31, 2012,
Photo Credit DVB)
Khin Shwe 39 , Zaw Zaw 40 and Tay Za 41 are still under the United States and EU targeted sanctions. Aung
San Suu Kyi’s view on the cronies and her friendliness with them are kind of giving them credential to
be released from targeted sanctions. It is expected that there will be more fund raising events sponsored
by cronies for the NLD in the future.
39 Treasury Sanctions Additional Financial Operatives of the Burmese Regime, Department of Treasury, February 25, 2010,
http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/hp837.aspx and Recent OFAC Action, October 19, 2007,
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20071019a.aspx
40 Treasury Targets Financial Networks of Key Supporters of the Burmese Junta, Department of Treasury, January 15, 2009,
http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/hp1355.aspx
41 Tay Za’s Financial Network, U.S. Department of Treasury, February 2008, http://www.treasury.gov/resourcecenter/sanctions/Documents/tayza_02062008.pdf
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(Aung San Suu Kyi and Zaw Zaw at Children Hospital on January 11, 2013, Photo credit The
Irrawaddy, http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/23820)
Media and the Peoples of Burma
Since the Burmese government had eased media censorship and allowed all media to publish freely;
media industry has been active and growing significantly, not only in print, but also in online
publication. Many journals and magazines have used Face Book and Websites as additional outlet to
reach to the public and online reporting are much more daring than print. Independent media
organizations are formed and advising the Parliament regarding media law. Private newspapers will be
allowed to publish beginning from April 2013.
The peoples of Burma have also risen from the dark ages and tried to open the half-opened door fully.
As the reform process in the country is a kind of top-down form and government offices and officials at
districts and township levels are still operating with the old attitudes, confrontation between the peoples
at grassroots level and local authorities have been growing. The peoples have been trying to regain many
things they have lost for decades, their lands, their environment, their rights, freedom, justice and human
dignity. Peaceful protests on the streets become their weapons, and media becomes their loud speakers
and message carriers.
Some media have been obvious in their stance against Chinese investment in Burma and Muslim
populations in Rakhine State, known as the Rohingyas. Their reporting and news articles have fueled
more public anger against the Chinese and Rohingya. Some media are owned by family members of
former powerful generals and cronies. They unanimously call for the end of civil wars in Kachin State
and nationwide.
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Under the rapidly changing political landscape, the peoples of Burma are ready to challenge everything,
from the government, the military, the Parliament, the Chinese investment, the cronies and land
confiscation, to ineffective leaders and corrupt politicians. Media will cover everything they act and
serve two roles, transmitter of their voices and instigator of their anger. Only the right political
movement and effective political leaders will help them to be in the right direction.
Burma in 2013 and Beyond
Burma had changed a lot. From military dictatorship to the military-controlled pseudo-democracy, from
the world’s most hated dictator to Nobel peace prize nominee, from political prisoners to civil society
leaders, from an isolated country to a major destination of international leaders, foreign investment and
political tourists, from the democracy icon to a controversial figure and cronies’ defender, from cronies
to politicians and major donors, from exile activists to presidential advisors, from united ethnic party to
divided ethnic parties, from propaganda machine to outspoken voice of the people, from opposition
parties to the allies of the ruling party, from grassroots activists to elites, these changes will continue to
expand in 2013.
The internal fighting between Thein Sein and Shwe Mann will be heightened and Aung San Suu Kyi’s
poor choice to ally with Shwe Mann will make this fight more brutal. Min Aung Hlaing will still
continue fighting against KIO and prepare to exercise his constitutional authority to declare a “state of
emergency” if he deems fit.
The lives of refugees on Thai-Burma border and internally displaced persons in ethnic areas haven’t
changed at all. They have no hope to return home safely, while no country will take them for third
country resettlement. Natural disasters of flood in Irrawaddy Delta and earthquake in upper Burma, war
in Kachin State and Shan State, and communal violence in Rakhine State in 2012 added hundreds of
thousands more internally displaced persons. There are still more than two hundred political prisoners
and thousands of prisoners arrested and imprisoned without due process related to KIO and violence in
Rakhine State. Burmese military has continued its human rights violations in ethnic minority areas, but
there is no opposition party in the Parliament which will ask the military to stop these abuses. There is
no pressure from the United Nations and international community in calling for justice and an end of
crimes against humanity. All eyes are on the sight of Burma in 2014 as the Chairman of ASEAN and in
2015 when the general election will be held.
Aung Din
January 17, 2013
aungdin88@gmail.com
(301) 602 0077
[Aung Din was a student leader during the 1988 popular democracy uprising in Burma and served as
Vice Chairman II of the All Burma Federation of Student Unions (ABFSU), the largest national student
organization in Burma and outlawed by the military regime. Aung Din spent over four years in prison as
a prisoner of conscience in 1989-1993, was released from prison in 1993, left the country in 1995and
lives in exile since then. He served as Director of Policy and Strategy at Free Burma Coalition (FBC) in
2001-2003 and Co-Founder and Executive Director of Washington, DC-based U.S. Campaign for
Burma (USCB) in 2003-2012. He is now living in Maryland, United States and writing opinion pieces
and articles regarding situation in his home country, Burma, also known as Myanmar.]
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