OCTOBER 2014

Point
Out
India china
to give the Chinese a bloody nose (like
Vietnam did in 1979), senior officer
say. Left unsaid was that China, given
its enormous force strength, would
ultimately prevail but at a heavy cost:
Militarily of course, economic certainly
as trade and foreign investment will be
hit; also politically with unpredictable
consequences for President Xi Jinping’s
standing at home and abroad.
“But until that happens, China holds the
edge and the international situation is also
in its favour,” says former foreign secretary
Shyam Saran. “The US pivot to Asia has
run aground in the deserts of West Asia
and of course in Ukraine. We are seeing
a return to the Cold War era. This is bad
for us as the asymmetry vis-à-vis China
will take time to be bridged. Time and
consistent growth rates of 8-9% are vital.”
While the prime minister is trying to fast
track growth, he must also work to secure
India’s periphery to ensure it doesn’t
become China’s periphery, say diplomats.
“Perceptionally, that message has gone out
after Modi’s back to back visits to Nepal
and Bhutan,” says Saran. “In the case of
Nepal the Barauni-Amlekhiganj pipeline
reinforces India’s purpose. In the case of
Sri Lanka, Modi has clearly demonstrated
his desire to move away from the polemics
of the past.”
Which is all very well but as serving
Indian diplomats note: Time and again
India has failed to capitalize or make the
best of its own initiatives. While there is
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october 2014