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Brunei Economic Bulletin Vol.3 Issue No.2 - Brunei Resources

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BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

Volume 3, <strong>Issue</strong> 2<br />

Date : 9/2004<br />

THE EDITOR<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN (BEB)<br />

JPKE (DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT)<br />

PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE<br />

Inside this issue:<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM SECOND QUARTER 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

Gross Domestic Product<br />

THE EDITOR:<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC<br />

BULLETIN (BEB)<br />

JPKE (DEPARTMENT OF ECO-<br />

NOMIC PLANNING AND DEVELOP-<br />

MENT)<br />

PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE<br />

Phone:<br />

+673-2-233344<br />

Fax: +673-2-230226<br />

Email: info@jpke.gov.bn<br />

BEB Panel of Advisors<br />

♦ Permanent Secretary<br />

Prime Minister’s Office<br />

♦ Director General JPKE,<br />

♦ Deputy Director Generals<br />

JPKE<br />

BEB Editors<br />

♦ Directors, JPKE<br />

♦ Assistant Directors, JPKE<br />

BEB Contributors<br />

♦ Hj Abd Razak Hj Angas<br />

♦ Abd Amin Hashim<br />

♦ Shahrom Hj Suhaimi<br />

♦ Hj Mazlan Hj Mohd Salleh<br />

♦ Mashor POKID Dato Paduka<br />

Hj Musa<br />

♦ Shamsul Bahrin Hj Mohd<br />

Hussain<br />

♦ Dk Hjh Siti Nirmala Pg Hj<br />

Mohammad<br />

♦ Zureidah Hj Abit<br />

♦ Pg Metussin Pg Hj Tuah<br />

♦ Hj Joharry Hj Karim<br />

♦ Hjh Aisah Hj Sani<br />

♦ Hjh Norfatiniwati Hj<br />

Muhammad<br />

BEB Publishers<br />

♦ Noor Jusmin Hj Abd Samad<br />

♦ Hairol Nizam Hj Abd Hamid<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s economy for this quarter is estimated to contract<br />

by 2.8 per cent from BND 1,172.9 in Q1 2004 to BND 1,140.2 in<br />

Q2 2004. Compared to the same quarter last year, it is also estimated<br />

to contract by 1.1 per cent (Chart 1.1).<br />

The oil and gas sector has registered contraction of 5.4 per cent in<br />

Q2 2004 year-on-year. It also contracted by 5.8 per cent in Q2 2004<br />

compared to Q1 2004. The average weighted oil production decreased<br />

by 3.8 per cent from 209,790 barrels per day in Q2 2003 to<br />

201,738 barrels per day in Q2 2004 (Table 1.1). The average<br />

weighted LNG production also dropped by 8.8 per cent from<br />

1,042,283.9 MMBtu 1 per day in Q2 2003 to 950,639.01 MMBtu per<br />

day in Q2 2004 (Table 1.2). The oil and gas sector in the first half of<br />

2004 declined by 2.9 per cent compared to the same period last year.<br />

Table 1.1: Oil Production<br />

Unit – Barrels/Day<br />

2001 2002 2003 2004<br />

JAN 207,290 215,020 207,785 213,223<br />

FEB 191,472 204,550 199,502 211,055<br />

MAC 197,709 201,230 206,610 197,933<br />

APR 179,623 186,880 210,221 212,929<br />

MAY 169,771 193,561 205,183 201,172<br />

JUN 186,537 203,188 214,122 191,130<br />

JUL 194,308 204,150 205,119<br />

AUG 193,504 216,474 203,128<br />

SEP 193,351 192,335 210,727<br />

OCT 188,568 199,427 197,564<br />

NOV 213,154 211,479 214,029<br />

DEC 224,901 207,524 212,788<br />

Crude Oil Production for<br />

the year<br />

195,065 203,021 207,240<br />

Average Crude Oil Production<br />

Q1<br />

Average Crude Oil Production<br />

Q2<br />

Average Crude Oil Production<br />

Q3<br />

Average Crude Oil Production<br />

Q4<br />

Average Crude Oil Production<br />

1H<br />

Average Crude Oil Production<br />

2H<br />

1 Million British Thermal Unit<br />

199,069 207,013 204,803 207,323<br />

178,546 194,532 209,790 201,738<br />

193,725 204,450 206,277<br />

208,828 206,085 208,063<br />

188,751 200,738 207,311<br />

201,276 205,268 207,170<br />

Source: Petroleum Unit, Prime Minister’s Office<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam Second<br />

Quarter <strong>Economic</strong><br />

Review and Outlook<br />

Crude Oil Price Index<br />

Statistical Data (Q2, 2004)<br />

• GDP Growth (Provisional Estimate)<br />

: -2.8 %<br />

• Change in CPI : 0.6%<br />

• Total Exports (f.o.b): BND 1,274.4<br />

million (April-May)<br />

• Total Import (c.i.f): BND 385.3<br />

million (April-May)<br />

• Government Revenue :<br />

BND 1,357.6 million<br />

• Government Expenditure : BND<br />

900.8 million<br />

1<br />

13<br />

<strong>Economic</strong> Outlook 14<br />

8th National Development<br />

Plan<br />

Short-Term <strong>Economic</strong><br />

Recovery<br />

THE LONG TERM OBJEC-<br />

TIVES OF BRUNEI DA-<br />

RUSSALAM’S DEVELOP-<br />

MENT PLAN OF 1986-<br />

2005: What has been the<br />

level of achievement in<br />

enhancing the quality of<br />

life?<br />

15<br />

18<br />

21<br />

JPKE List of Publications 29<br />

Miscellaneous 29


P AGE 2<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

Table 1.2: LNG Production<br />

Unit - MMBtu/Day<br />

2001 2002 2003 2004<br />

JAN 1,033,542.9 1,046,388.0 1,118,431.0 1,117,753.6<br />

FEB 962,006.0 1,095,799.0 1,112,133.0 1,073,981.0<br />

MAC 1,141,934.0 990,443.0 1,165,771.0 1,063,286.8<br />

APR 864,858.0 750,836.0 1,037,552.0 1,126,284.33<br />

MAY 682,869.0 687,569.0 1,002,617.0 785,019.35<br />

JUN 960,671.0 915,497.0 1,088,055.0 946,134.00<br />

JUL 838,649.0 1,061,756.0 1,050,631.0<br />

AUG 936,035.0 1,061,236.0 948,691.0<br />

SEP 1,023,296.0 980,426.0 970,991.7<br />

OCT 1,048,142.0 1,062,589.0 992,310.7<br />

NOV 976,540.0 1,037,404.0 1,038,770.0<br />

DEC 1,146,837.0 1,059,582.0 1,062,209.0<br />

LNG Production for the<br />

Year 968,124.0 978,804.0 1,049,143.0<br />

Average LNG Production<br />

Q1 1,048,621.7 1,042,490.4 1,132,777.6 1,085,249.5<br />

Average LNG Production<br />

Q2 834,448.5 783,567.4 1,042,283.9 950,639.01<br />

Average LNG Production<br />

Q3 931,674.8 1,035,060.1 990,426.5<br />

Average LNG Production<br />

Q4 1,058,049.4 1,053,363.3 1,031,013.2<br />

Average LNG Production<br />

1H 940,943.4 912,243.8 1,087,280.5 1,017,944.23<br />

Average LNG Production<br />

2H 994,862.1 1,044,211.7 1,011,005.5<br />

Source: Petroleum Unit, Prime Minister's Office<br />

Table 1.3: Oil and Gas Production Index<br />

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004<br />

JAN 109.7 108.0 111.2 110.9 112.8<br />

FEB 113.1 100.0 109.0 107.7 110.6<br />

MAC 112.6 108.0 104.4 112.0 105.6<br />

APR 103.7 92.6 91.6 109.2 113.0<br />

MAY 98.7 83.2 92.0 106.2 97.8<br />

JUN 75.9 98.2 102.7 112.2 99.4<br />

JUL 93.3 97.1 107.8 107.8<br />

AUG 93.7 99.9 112.2 103.8<br />

SEP 91.6 102.6 100.9 107.2<br />

OCT 91.8 101.7 106.1 103.2<br />

NOV 107.0 108.3 109.6 110.6<br />

DEC 109.0 118.0 108.9 110.9<br />

Average Index for the Year 100.0 101.5 104.7 108.5<br />

Average Index for Q1 111.8 105.5 108.2 110.3 109.7<br />

Average Index for Q2 92.8 91.2 95.4 109.2 103.3<br />

Average Index for Q3 92.9 99.8 107.0 106.2<br />

Average Index for Q4 102.6 109.3 108.2 108.2<br />

Average Index for H1 102.3 98.3 101.7 109.7<br />

Average Index for H2 97.7 104.6 107.6 107.2<br />

Base year 2000=100<br />

Source: Petroleum Unit, Prime Minister’s Office<br />

Table 1.4: Agricultural Sector<br />

Crop Production<br />

Q2 03 Q1 04 Q2 04<br />

growth<br />

(%)<br />

(Q-O-Q)<br />

growth<br />

(%)<br />

(Y-O-Y)<br />

Vegetables (Tons) 2,564.02 2,023.0 3,012.0 48.9 17.5<br />

Fruits (Tons) 835.7 836.0 806.0 (3.6) (3.6)<br />

Ornamental horticulture (trees) 55,956.0 74,536.0 56,966.0 (23.6) 1.8<br />

Cut Flowers (unit) 29,693.0 31,258.0 34,459.0 10.2 16.1<br />

Various Plantations (Tons) 61.1 62.0 87.0 40.0 42.4<br />

Livestock Production<br />

Buffaloes (Tons) 50.4 16.1 30.0 86.3 (40.5)<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

The oil and gas production index (OGPI) contracted by 5.4 per<br />

cent from 109.2 in Q2 2003 to 103.3 in Q2 2004. On a quarteron-quarter<br />

basis the OGPI also contracted by 5.8 per cent from<br />

109.7 in Q1 2004 (Table 1.3).<br />

The price of crude oil averaged at US$38.20 per barrel in Q2<br />

2004 compared to US$27.33 per barrel a year ago and<br />

US$35.59 in Q1 2004. Meanwhile, the price of LNG averaged<br />

at US$4.71 per MMBtu compared to US$4.70 per MMBtu a<br />

year ago and US$4.67 in Q1 2004.<br />

The overall non-oil and gas sector is estimated to expand by<br />

3.9 per cent in Q2 2004 compared to the same period last year.<br />

Compared to Q1 2004, it is estimated to grow marginally by<br />

0.4 per cent. The year-on-year growth was supported by improvement<br />

in forestry; mining; quarrying and manufacturing;<br />

wholesale and retail; and transport and communication sectors.<br />

Activities in the agricultural sector are estimated to register a<br />

1.4 per cent growth in Q2 2004 compared to the same period a<br />

year ago. This was due to the increase in the production of<br />

vegetables; ornamental horticulture (trees); cut flowers; various<br />

plantations; and chicken eggs (Table 1.4). On a quarter-on<br />

quarter basis, this sector is also estimated to grow by 5.3 per<br />

cent in Q2 2004.<br />

The forestry sector grew at an estimated rate of 21.0 per cent<br />

in Q2 2004 year-on-year. Compared to Q1 2004, it registered a<br />

17.8 percent growth. The production of round timber increased<br />

by 32.3 per cent from 25.1 thousands cubic metres in<br />

Q2 2003 to 33.2 thousands cubic metres in Q2 2004 (Table 1.5).<br />

Compared to Q1 2004, it registered an increase of 5.4 per cent<br />

from 31.5 thousands cubic metres. The production of bakau<br />

poles also increased by 14.9 per cent from 28.2 thousand<br />

pieces in Q2 2003 to 32.4 thousand pieces in Q2 2004. Compared<br />

to Q1 2004, it increased by 26.6 per cent, from 25.6 thousand<br />

pieces during that quarter.<br />

Activities in the fishery sector are estimated to decline by 22.8<br />

per cent compared to the same period last year. Compared to<br />

Q1 2004, this sector also registered a decrease of 60.1 per cent.<br />

The largest downward effect was from the production of the<br />

capture industry. The production dropped by 24.8 per cent<br />

from 4,242.8 metric tonnes in Q2 2003 to 3,192.0 metric tonnes<br />

in Q2 2004 and on quarter on quarter basis the production<br />

dropped by 57.1 per cent from 7,440.6 metric tonnes in Q1<br />

2004 (Table 1.6).<br />

Chart 1.1: Growth of Gross Domestic Product Year-on-year<br />

Cattle (Tons) 0.4 3.1 0.3 (90.3) (25.0)<br />

Goats (Tons) 0.07 1.3 - - -<br />

Broiler Chicken (Tons) 4,166.2 4,242.0 3,967.0 (6.5) (4.8)<br />

Chicken Eggs (Millions) 26.1 27.7 28.4 8.8<br />

Fresh Milk (Litres) 22,939.0 24,519.0 16,900.0 (26.3)<br />

Source: Agricultural Department<br />

Table 1.5: Forestry Sector<br />

Q2 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 growth (%) growth (%)<br />

(Q-O-Q) (Y-O-Y)<br />

Round Timber ('000 Cubic Metres) 25.1 31.5 33.2 5.4 32.3<br />

Bakau Poles (Thousand Pieces) 28.2 25.6 32.4 26.6 14.9<br />

Source: Forestry Department<br />

%<br />

16<br />

14<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

-2<br />

-4<br />

-6<br />

Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04<br />

Total Oil Non-oil


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 3<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

Table 1.6: Fishery Sector<br />

Capture Industry (Metric Tonnes)<br />

Q2 03 Q1 04 Q2 04<br />

growth<br />

(%)<br />

(Q-O-Q)<br />

growth<br />

(%)<br />

(Y-O-Y)<br />

4,242.83 7,440.61 3,192.0 (57.10) (24.77)<br />

Commercial 1,016.96 662.99 875.15 32.0 (13.94)<br />

Small Scale Fishermen 3,225.87 6,777.62 2,316.83 (65.82) (28.18)<br />

Aquaculture Industry (Metric<br />

Tonnes)<br />

112.28 146.52 156.54 6.84 39.42<br />

Fish 17.45 19.71 21.01 6.60 20.40<br />

Prawn 70.90 97.53 106.59 9.29 50.34<br />

Fresh Water Fish 23.93 29.28 28.94 (1.16) 20.94<br />

Total Production 4,355.11 7,587.13 3,348.54 (55.87) (23.11)<br />

Source: Fishery Department<br />

Table 1.7: Mining/Quarrying/Manufacturing Sector<br />

Cement Production<br />

(Tonnes)<br />

Sawn Timber Production<br />

(Thousands cubic<br />

metre)<br />

Fish Processing Production<br />

(Tonnes)<br />

Charcoals Production<br />

(thousand Kg)<br />

Q2 03 Q1 04 Q2 04<br />

growth<br />

(%)<br />

(Q-O-Q)<br />

growth<br />

(%)<br />

(Y-O-Y)<br />

57,969.0 55,471.3 59,041.5 4.5 1.5<br />

13.3 11.0 15.0 36.4 12.8<br />

144.7 128.1 130.13 1.6 (10.1)<br />

6.3 4.4 6.7 52.3 6.3<br />

Cable Production (Kg) 158,662.0 165,388.2 202,682.9 22.5 27.7<br />

Roofing Production<br />

(Tonnes)<br />

Switchboard Production<br />

(Unit)<br />

Reverse-Osmosis Water<br />

Production (thousand<br />

litres)<br />

Source: Department of <strong>Economic</strong> Planning & Development<br />

%<br />

41<br />

39<br />

37<br />

35<br />

33<br />

31<br />

29<br />

27<br />

705.6 652.9 543.0 (16.8) (23.0)<br />

1,227.0 512.0 965.0 88.5 (21.4)<br />

112.0 115.0 117.0 1.7 4.5<br />

Chart 1.2: Hotel Occupancy Rate<br />

Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04<br />

Chart 1.3: Growth Rate of Communication Sector<br />

%<br />

20<br />

16<br />

12<br />

8<br />

4<br />

0<br />

Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04<br />

Chart 1.4: Seaborne Cargo Handled<br />

The mining, quarrying and manufacturing sector registered<br />

an estimated growth rate of 8.6 per cent in Q2 2004 compared<br />

to Q2 2003 due to the increase in production of cement, sawn<br />

timber, charcoals, reverse osmosis water, cable and bricks. On<br />

a quarter-on-quarter basis this sector grew by an estimated 4.1<br />

per cent compared to Q1 2004 (Table 1.7).<br />

The construction sector has shown improvement year-on-year<br />

and registered an estimated 5.7 per cent growth in Q2 2004. It<br />

is also estimated to expand by 7.4 per cent compared with the<br />

previous quarter.<br />

The wholesale and retail trade sector posted an estimated 8.5<br />

growth in Q2 2004 compared to Q2 2003. Compared with the<br />

previous quarter, this sector is estimated to have expanded by<br />

6.1 per cent. Survey on selected major wholesale companies<br />

registered a 4.6 per cent growth in the value of sales in Q2 2004<br />

year-on-year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis the value of sales<br />

also increased by 3.8 per cent. Meanwhile, survey on selected<br />

major retail companies registered a 14.4 per cent increased in<br />

the value of sales in Q2 2004 year-on-year. Likewise, on a<br />

quarter-on-quarter basis the value of retail sales rose by 8.4 per<br />

cent.<br />

The restaurants and hotels sector is estimated to contract by<br />

5.4 per cent in Q2 2004 compared to the same period last year.<br />

Compared with the previous quarter, it is estimated to have<br />

contracted by 1.5 per cent. The hotels occupancy rates have<br />

dropped by 7.7 per cent from 31.0 per cent in Q2 2003 to 28.6<br />

per cent in Q2 2004 (Chart 1.2). However, on a quarter-onquarter<br />

basis the rates have increased by 1.3 per cent compared<br />

to Q1 2004. Meanwhile, the value of sales from the selected<br />

major restaurants declined by 3.1 per cent compared to<br />

Q2 2003. On quarter-on-quarter basis the value of sales also<br />

dropped by 4.2 per cent.<br />

The transport and communication sector grew at an estimated<br />

17.1 per cent in Q2 2004 compared to a year ago. Compared<br />

with the previous quarter, this sector is estimated to have expanded<br />

by 5.4 per cent. The improved year-on-year growth<br />

was mainly attributed to better performance in the communication<br />

sector (Chart 1.3). The volume of cargo handled also<br />

increased by 33.1 per cent in Q2 2004 compared to a year ago<br />

(Chart 1.4).<br />

The banking and finance sector registered a contraction of 7.0<br />

per cent in Q2 2004 compared to Q2 2003. However, compared<br />

to Q1 2004 it grew by 3.8 per cent. Total interest income from<br />

loans and advances stood at BND 107.0 million in Q2 2004<br />

compared to BND 115.0 million and BND 114.8 million collected<br />

in Q2 2003 and Q1 2004 respectively (Chart 1.5).<br />

The insurance sector is estimated to register a contraction of<br />

0.4 per cent in Q2 2004 compared to the same period a year<br />

earlier. However, compared to Q1 2004, it expanded by 26.8<br />

per cent.<br />

Chart 1.5: Banks Loans and Advances<br />

13 0<br />

500,000<br />

12 5<br />

freight tonnes<br />

400,000<br />

300,000<br />

200,000<br />

100,000<br />

0<br />

Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04<br />

BNDmillion<br />

12 0<br />

115<br />

110<br />

10 5<br />

10 0<br />

Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04


P AGE 4<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

Table 2.1 : Consumer Price Index Q2 2003, Q1 and Q2 2004<br />

I<br />

Commodity Group Weight Q2 03<br />

Source: Department of <strong>Economic</strong> Planning & Development<br />

Jan-<br />

June<br />

03<br />

Q1 04<br />

Q2<br />

04<br />

Jan-<br />

June<br />

04<br />

All 10,000 100.6 100.6 100.7 101.3 101.0<br />

Food & Non-Alcoholic<br />

Beverages<br />

2877 99.0 99.5 100.0 100.7 100.4<br />

II Clothing & Footwear 561 99.5 98.8 97.5 96.0 96.7<br />

III<br />

IV<br />

Housing, Water,<br />

Electricity & Maintenance<br />

Household Goods &<br />

Operations<br />

884 100.1 100.0 98.0 98.4 98.2<br />

860 100.4 100.1 95.7 95.0 95.4<br />

V Transport 2251 105.0 104.3 106.1 106.5 106.3<br />

VI Communication 548 95.5 96.1 94.2 93.3 93.8<br />

VII Education 471 99.4 99.8 99.9 99.9 99.8<br />

VIII Medical & Health 98 98.5 98.2 98.2 98.2 98.2<br />

IX<br />

X<br />

Recreation & Entertainment<br />

Miscellaneous Goods<br />

& Services<br />

814 100.0 100.1 103.5 108.3 105.9<br />

636 100.6 100.4 101.4 101.3 101.4<br />

Table 2.2: Consumer Price Index April-June 2004<br />

Commodity Group<br />

Weight<br />

2004<br />

April May June<br />

All 10,000 101.3 101.3<br />

I Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2877 100.8 100.7 100.7<br />

II Clothing & Footwear 561 93.4 98.6 95.9<br />

III Housing, Water, Electricity & Maintenance 884 98.1 98.5 98.7<br />

IV Household Goods, Services & Operations 860 95.0 96.2 93.7<br />

V Transport 2251 106.8 106.2 106.6<br />

VI Communication 548 94.0 93.2 92.8<br />

VII Education 471 99.9 100.1 99.7<br />

VIII Medical & Health 98 98.1 98.3 98.3<br />

IX Recreation & Entertainment 814 109.5 106.9 108.4<br />

X Miscellaneous Goods & Services 636 100.6 101.7 101.6<br />

Chart 2.1: CPI Percentage Changes Between Q2 2004 and Q1 2004<br />

101.2<br />

Consumer Price Index<br />

The average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the second quarter<br />

of 2004 was 101.3, an increase of 0.6 per cent from 100.7 in<br />

Q1 2004 (Table 2.1. The CPI for April, May and June 2003<br />

stood at 101.3, 101.3 and 101.2 respectively (Table 2.2). The<br />

CPI for January to June 2004 increased by 0.4 per cent compared<br />

to that of 100.6 in the same period last year. The average<br />

CPI for the second quarter 2004 compared to the same<br />

period last year recorded a marginal increase of 0.7 per cent<br />

from 100.6 to 101.3.<br />

CPI Changes for the Q2 2004 relative to Q1 of 2004<br />

The average CPI for Q2 2004 rose by 0.6 per cent compared<br />

to Q1 2004 due to the hike seen in Major Group indices of<br />

Recreation & Entertainment by 4.6 per cent; Food & Non-<br />

Alcoholic Beverages by 0.7 per cent; and Housing, Water,<br />

Electricity & Maintenance by 0.4 per cent.<br />

The Recreation & Entertainment index increased by 4.6 per<br />

cent due to higher price of Holiday Package Expenses which<br />

rose by 7.0 per cent.<br />

The increase in the price of Fresh Chicken by 13.2 per cent<br />

contributed to the increase in the Major Group Index of<br />

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages by 0.7 per cent.<br />

The Major Group Index of Transport rose by 0.4 per cent as a<br />

result of an increase in the Purchase of Vehicles Index by 2.4<br />

per cent.<br />

The Housing, Water, Electricity & Maintenance index rose to<br />

0.4 per cent due to the increase in Accommodation price by<br />

1.0 per cent.<br />

The largest downward effect on the CPI for this quarter<br />

came from Clothing and Footwear (Chart 2.1). This was due<br />

to the decline in the sub-group indices of Ready-Made<br />

Clothing Accessories by 1.2 per cent; Materials for<br />

Male/Female by 3.0 per cent; Wedding Dress, Accessories<br />

and Rental by 2.1 per cent; Tailoring Charges by 1.5 per cent;<br />

and Footwear by 1.2 per cent.<br />

Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages<br />

Clothing & Footwear<br />

Housing, Water, Electricity &<br />

M aint enance<br />

Household Goods, Services &<br />

Operat ions<br />

Transport<br />

Communicat ion<br />

Educat ion<br />

M edical & Health<br />

Recreation & Ent ertainment<br />

M iscellaneous Goods & Services<br />

0.7<br />

-1.5<br />

0.4<br />

-0.7<br />

0.4<br />

-0.9<br />

0<br />

0<br />

-0.1<br />

4.6<br />

-5 0 5<br />

CPI Changes for the Q2 of 2004 relative to the same<br />

period in 2003<br />

The average CPI for Q2 2004 increased by 0.7 per cent compared<br />

to 100.6 in the same period last year (Table 2.1). The<br />

Recreation & Entertainment Index advanced by 8.3 per cent<br />

which accounted for half of the increase in the overall CPI.<br />

The Major Group Indices of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages<br />

also increased by 1.7 per cent; Transport by 1.4 per cent;<br />

Education by 0.5 per cent; and Miscellaneous Goods and<br />

Services by 0.7 per cent respectively.<br />

The Recreation & Entertainment Index witnessed a sharp<br />

increase of 8.3 per cent when compared to the same period<br />

last year. This was mainly due to a 12.8 per cent rise in the<br />

price of Holiday Package Expenses which was a consequence<br />

of the increase in prices of Umrah Package which<br />

coincide with school holidays.<br />

The increase in prices of Beef (Cattle), Fresh and Frozen; and<br />

Fresh Chicken by 22.7 per cent and 17.8 per cent respectively


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 5<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

Chart 2.2: CPI Percentage Changes Between Q2 2004 and Q2<br />

2003<br />

Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages<br />

1.7<br />

Clothing & Footwear<br />

-3.5<br />

Housing, Water, Electricity &<br />

M aintenance<br />

Household Goods, Services &<br />

Operations<br />

Transport<br />

Communication<br />

Education<br />

Medical & Health<br />

Recreation & Entertainment<br />

Miscellaneous Goods & Services<br />

-5.4<br />

-1.7<br />

-2.3<br />

-0.3<br />

1.4<br />

0.5<br />

0.7<br />

8.3<br />

-10 0 10<br />

Chart 2.3: CPI Percentage Changes for the period of January-<br />

June 2004 relative to the same period in 2003<br />

Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages<br />

0.9<br />

Index<br />

Clothing & Footwear<br />

Housing, Water, Electricity &<br />

M aintenance<br />

Household Goods, Services &<br />

Operations<br />

Transport<br />

Communication<br />

Education<br />

M edical & Health<br />

Recreation & Entertainment<br />

M iscellaneous Goods & Services<br />

10 2 . 0<br />

10 1. 0<br />

10 0 . 0<br />

-4.7<br />

-2.1<br />

-1.8<br />

-2.4<br />

0.0<br />

0.0<br />

1.9<br />

1.0<br />

5.8<br />

-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0<br />

Consumer Pric e Index 2002=100<br />

(Jan-June 2004)<br />

100.1<br />

100.8<br />

101.2<br />

101.3<br />

101.3<br />

101.2<br />

accounted for the largest upward movement of the Major<br />

Group Index of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages.<br />

The Miscellaneous Goods and Services index rose by 0.7 per<br />

cent as a result of increases in sub-group indices of personal<br />

care by 0.4 per cent and Personal Effects and Other Personal<br />

Goods by 4.4 per cent.<br />

The largest downward influence was from the Household<br />

Goods and Operations Index (Chart 2.2). The index dropped<br />

by 5.4 per cent as a result of decreases in the prices of Furniture<br />

(11.9 per cent); Floor Covering (8.2 per cent); Household<br />

Furnishings (0.2 per cent); Audio, Video Equipments, Musical<br />

Instruments (4.5 per cent); Household Equipments and Electrical<br />

Appliances (7.1 per cent); Kitchen Appliances and Utensils<br />

(7.6 per cent); Crockery and Cutlery (6.8 per cent); Household<br />

Operation (0.7 per cent); and Other Household Services<br />

(0.4 per cent).<br />

CPI Changes for the period January-June 2004/2003<br />

The 0.4 per cent increase in the CPI was brought about by the<br />

increase observed in Major Group indices of Food and Non-<br />

Alcoholic Beverages by 0.9 per cent; Transport (1.9 per cent);<br />

Recreation and Entertainment (5.8 per cent); and Miscellaneous<br />

Goods and Services (1.0 per cent) (Chart 2.3).<br />

The 0.9 per cent increase in the index for Food and Non-<br />

Alcoholic Beverages was the result of increases in the subgroup<br />

indices of Meat and Meat Products (9.3 per cent); Dairy<br />

Products and Eggs (5.6 per cent); Cooking Oils and Fats (7.2 per<br />

cent); Vegetables (1.5 per cent); Sugar, Sugar Preserves and<br />

Confectionery (3.6 per cent); Coffee, Tea and Cocoa (0.6 per<br />

cent; and Food/Drink Away From Home (0.2 per cent).<br />

The Transportation index rose by 1.9 per cent reflecting an increase<br />

in the price of Private Road Transport by 1.9 per cent<br />

and Air Transport by 3.3 per cent.<br />

The Major Group Index of Recreation and Entertainment increased<br />

by 5.8 per cent due to the soaring prices of Holiday<br />

Package Expenses which rose by 9.8 per cent.<br />

The Miscellaneous Goods and Services index was up by 1.0 per<br />

cent due to the increases in sub-group indices of Personal Care;<br />

and Personal Effects and Other Personal Goods by 0.8 per cent<br />

and 5.4 per cent respectively.<br />

The largest downward effect was from the Major Group Index<br />

of Household Goods & Operation (Chart 2.3). The price dipped<br />

by 4.7 per cent as a result of decreases in the price of Furniture<br />

(10.2 per cent); Floor Covering (4.9 per cent); Audio, Video<br />

Equipments, Musical Instruments (4.4 per cent); Household<br />

Equipments and Electrical Appliances (7.0 per cent); Kitchen<br />

Appliances and Utensils (7.8 per cent); Crockery and Cutlery<br />

(6.5 per cent); and Household Operation (0.2 per cent).<br />

99.0<br />

98.0<br />

Jan Feb March Apr May June


P AGE 6<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

Table 3.1:GOVERNMENT FINANCE (BND MILLION)<br />

Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q2 2003<br />

Total Revenues 1,398.0 1,357.6 1,225.4<br />

Tax 824.7 726.9 640.7<br />

Non-tax 573.3 630.7 584.7<br />

Total Expenditure 1,429.5 900.8 986.0<br />

Current 1,202.5 768.5 781.0<br />

Capital 227.0 132.3 204.9<br />

Budget Surplus/ (Deficit) (31.5) 456.8 239.4<br />

Source: Treasury Department, Ministry of Finance<br />

Table 3.2: GOVERNMENT REVENUE & EXPENDITURE (BND MIL-<br />

LION)<br />

Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q2 2003<br />

Total Revenue 1,398.0 1,357.6 1,225.4<br />

Tax revenue 824.7 726.9 640.7<br />

Taxes on net income and<br />

profits<br />

797.5 698.7 612.1<br />

Corporate taxes 796.5 698.0 611.0<br />

Oil & Gas production<br />

companies<br />

758.4 643.2 560.5<br />

Other companies 38.1 54.8 50.5<br />

Individuals (estate duty) 0.0 0.0 0.4<br />

Stamp 0.9 0.7 0.7<br />

Taxes on international trade 24.3 25.6 25.9<br />

Import duties 24.3 25.6 25.9<br />

Motor vehicles tax 14.1 14.2 14.2<br />

Tobacco 5.1 5.4 5.2<br />

Others 5.1 6.0 6.5<br />

Taxes on goods and services<br />

3.0 2.6 2.7<br />

Licences 3.0 2.6 2.7<br />

Financial companies 0.1 0.1 0.0<br />

Others 2.9 2.5 2.7<br />

Non-tax revenue 573.3 630.7 584.7<br />

Property income 497.8 570.4 513.3<br />

Oil sector 482.1 561.2 485.4<br />

Oil & Gas Royalties 160.0 121.9 106.3<br />

Dividend paid by oil<br />

companies<br />

322.1 439.3 379.1<br />

Other 15.7 9.2 27.9<br />

Other royalties 0.3 0.4 0.4<br />

Rent and interest 3.9 3.0 5.1<br />

Others 11.5 5.8 22.4<br />

Administrative fees and<br />

charges on sales of goods<br />

and fines 74.8 59.6 70.7<br />

Telecom & utilities 54.9 40.6 50.5<br />

Other 19.9 19.0 20.2<br />

Other non-tax revenue 0.7 0.8 0.7<br />

Total Expenditure 1,429.5 900.8 986.0<br />

Current 1,202.5 768.5 781.0<br />

Wages & Salaries 422.8 336.2 316.1<br />

OCAR 465.6 284.3 286.8<br />

Charged 314.1 148.0 178.1<br />

Capital 227.0 132.3 204.9<br />

OCSE 156.6 52.1 104.1<br />

Development Expenditure 70.4 80.2* 82.9<br />

Investment in Public Enterprise<br />

NA NA 18.0<br />

Budget Surplus/ Deficit (31.5) 456.8 239.3<br />

Source: Treasury Department, Ministry of Finance (includes latest entries<br />

for the Quarter) * Provisional<br />

NA - Not Available<br />

Fiscal Sector<br />

Fiscal Position<br />

In Q2 2004, the Government revenue of BND 1,357.6 million<br />

exceeded its expenditure of BND 900.8 million, which resulted<br />

in a budget surplus of BND 456.8 million compared<br />

to BND 239.4 million during the same quarter last year<br />

(Table 3.1). The budget surplus in Q2 2004 was primarily<br />

due to the decrease in government expenditure, when compared<br />

to the government finance in Q1 2004.<br />

Government Revenue<br />

The total revenue fell by 2.9 percent from BND 1,398.0 million<br />

in Q1 2004 to BND 1,357.6 million in Q2 2004. However,<br />

it was BND 132.3 million (10.8 percent) higher compared to<br />

BND 1,225.3 million collected in Q2 2003.<br />

As shown in Table 3.2, in Q2 2004, 53.5 percent of the total<br />

revenue collected was in the form of tax revenue and only<br />

46.5 percent was from non-tax sources. The former comprises<br />

of taxes on net income and profits, taxes on international<br />

trade, and taxes on goods and services, which decreased<br />

from BND 824.7 million in Q1 2004 to BND 726.9<br />

million in Q2 2004. The decrease was mainly due to the drop<br />

in oil and gas corporate taxes, from BND 758.4 million in Q1<br />

2004 to BND 643.2 million in Q2 2004. The increase in corporate<br />

taxes by 43.8 percent from other companies was not<br />

enough to compensate for the decrease in the oil and gas<br />

corporate taxes. Nevertheless, the tax collected in Q2 2004<br />

was BND 86.2 million higher than the amount collected in<br />

the same quarter last year.<br />

The non-tax revenue, which consists of property income,<br />

administrative fees and charges on sales of goods and fines<br />

including telecommunication and utilities, and others, recorded<br />

an increase of BND 57.4 million from BND 573.3<br />

million in Q1 2004 to BND 630.7 million in Q2 2004. The Q2<br />

2004 figure was also an increase of 7.9 per cent (BND 46.0<br />

million) compared to that in Q2 2003. The increase was<br />

mainly due to the increase in the dividends paid by the oil<br />

and gas companies, as shown in Table 3.2. This figure increased<br />

by 36.4 percent from BND 322.1 million in Q1 2004<br />

to BND 439.3 million in Q2 2004; and by 15.9 percent compared<br />

to that of Q2 2003.<br />

Government Expenditure<br />

The government expenditure, which comprises current and<br />

capital expenditures (CAPEX), decreased by 37.0 percent<br />

from BND 1,429.5 million in Q1 2004 to BND 900.8 million<br />

in Q2 2004 (Table 3.2). This was due to the decline in both<br />

current and capital expenditures over the period from BND<br />

1,202.5 million and BND 227.0 million in Q1 2004 to BND<br />

768.5 million and BND 132.3 million in Q2 2004 respectively.<br />

Of the total current expenditure during this quarter, 43.7<br />

percent was for personnel emoluments (Wages & Salaries).<br />

CAPEX, which includes Other Charges Special Expenditure<br />

(OCSE) and Development Expenditure (DE), decreased by<br />

41.7 percent compared to that recorded in Q1 2004. Compared<br />

to Q2 2003, CAPEX recorded a decrease of BND 72.6<br />

million (-35.4 percent) from BND 204.9 million. However,<br />

the DE increased by 13.9 percent from BND 70.4 million in<br />

Q1 2004 to BND 80.2 million in Q2 2004, but dropped<br />

slightly by 3.3 percent from the same quarter last year. The


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 7<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

12000<br />

Chart 4.1 Money Supply<br />

OCSE recorded a decrease of 66.7 percent from BND 156.6<br />

million in Q1 2004 to BND 52.1 million in Q2 2004. Compared<br />

to Q2 last year, OCSE also fell by half, from BND 104.1 million.<br />

10000<br />

BND million<br />

8000<br />

6000<br />

4000<br />

2000<br />

0<br />

2003 2004<br />

June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June<br />

Month<br />

CIC M1 Qm M2<br />

Monetary Sector<br />

Money Supply<br />

As shown in Chart 4.1, the domestic narrow money (M1)<br />

expansions increased by 1.8 percent, from BND2,481.3 million<br />

in March 2004 to BND2,525.2 million in June 2004. This<br />

expansion was affected by an increase in M1 components<br />

where currency in circulation increased by 0.9 percent from<br />

BND656.2 million to BND662.0 million and demand deposits<br />

increased by 2.1 percent from BND1,825.1 million to<br />

BND1,863.2 million. Within the same period, broad money<br />

(M2) increased marginally by 2.6 percent from BND10,856.7<br />

million to BND11,135.4 million due to the increase in quasi<br />

money. Fixed deposit increased by 3.3 percent from<br />

BND5,639.4 million in March 2004 to BND5,827.1 million in<br />

June 2004 and savings and others (current deposits and call<br />

money) increased by 1.7 percent from BND2,736 million in<br />

March 2004 to BND2,783.1 million in June 2004. On a yearon-year<br />

basis, broad money increased by only 9.7 percent<br />

from BND10,150.2 million in June 2003 to BND11,135.4 million<br />

in June 2004.<br />

Assets and Liabilities<br />

TABLE 4.1 – Assets and Liabilities<br />

Assets and Liabilities in the banking system are shown in<br />

Table 4.1. The commercial banks’ total assets and liabilities<br />

increased by 6.6 percent from BND13,690 million in March<br />

2004 to BND14,594 million in June 2004. This was due to an<br />

increase in domestic and foreign deposits with banks and<br />

other assets. Domestic and foreign deposits increased by 12.3<br />

percent from BND6,272 million in March 2004 to BND7,045<br />

million in June 2004. Similarly, loans and advances increased<br />

by 0.8 percent, from BND5,392 million to BND5,437 million<br />

and other assets also increased by 8.8 percent from BND909<br />

million to BND989 million. Liabilities in the banking system<br />

also increased where deposits rose by 2.7 percent from<br />

BND10,201 million to BND10,473 million. This was due to<br />

increases in demand deposits by 2 percent from BND1,825<br />

million to BND1,863 million, time deposits by 3.3 percent<br />

Assets / Liabilities 2003 2004<br />

June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun<br />

Assets 12,925 12,218 12,081 12,900 12,683 12,798 13,495 13146 13117 13,690 13,514 13,391 14,594<br />

Cash 169 163 165 138 174 208 245 176 171 175 145 154 146<br />

Due from bank : 5,907 5,225 4,979 5,737 5,508 5,557 6,204 5,738 5,715 6,272 6,110 5,920 7,045<br />

in BD 1,100 784 614.3 912 862 795 1023 1,048 1082 1,151 1,105 1,048 1,488<br />

outside BD 4,807 4,441 4364.5 4,825 4646 4,762 5181 4,690 4633 5,121 5,005 4,872 5,557<br />

Loans and Advances 5,259 5,269 5304 5,346 5351 5,392 5387 5,398 5383 5,392 5,373 5,385 5,437<br />

Investment 721 689 744 775 744 726 715 873 925 942 961 985 977<br />

Other assets 869 872 889 904 906 915 944 961 923 909 925 947 989<br />

Liabilities 12,925 12,218 12,081 12,900 12,683 12,798 13,495 13146 13117 13,690 13,515 13,390 14,593<br />

Deposits 9,504 9,255 9,313 9,768 9,659 9,825 10,205 9914 9861 10,201 10,075 9,973 10,473<br />

Demand 1,971 1,853 1837 1,986 1899 2,038 2149 1967 1932 1,825 1,686 1,739 1,863<br />

Time 4,998 4,902 4980 5,280 5214 5,218 5457 5257 5207 5,640 5,629 5,445 5,827<br />

Saving 2,535 2,500 2496 2,502 2546 2,569 2599 2690 2722 2,736 2,760 2,789 2,783<br />

Due to bank 1,541 1,077 877 1,240 1,111 1,023 1,394 1308 1319 1,538 1,445 1,400 2,060<br />

in BD 1,308 970 771 1,130 1016 931 1222 1182 1221 1,444 1,354 1,306 1,937<br />

outside BD 233 107 106 110 95 92 172 126 98 94 91 94 123<br />

Other liabilities 1,880 1887 1891 1892 1913 1950 1896 1924 1937 1,951 1,995 2,017 2,060<br />

Source: Financial Institution Division, Ministry of Finance


P AGE 8<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

TABLE 4.2 – Direction of Lending<br />

2003<br />

2004<br />

Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun<br />

Total 4347 4386 4486 5386 5391 5438<br />

Agriculture 34 35 33 33 41 33<br />

Credit & Finance 15 17 22 23 21 27<br />

Manufacturing 89 91 96 90 90 91<br />

Transportation 186 197 213 201 193 203<br />

Construction 467 457 471 460 450 484<br />

General Commerce 497 478 497 481 465 476<br />

Professional Services 107 115 94 100 94 43<br />

Personal Loans 2479 2528 2591 3517 3567 3621<br />

Mortgage 473 468 469 481 470 460<br />

Source: Financial Institution Division, Ministry of Finance<br />

Chart 4.2 Non-Performing Loans<br />

800<br />

700<br />

600<br />

500<br />

2003 2004<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun<br />

Month<br />

60-90 days 91-120 days >120 days Tot al<br />

Source: Financial Institution Division, Ministry of Finance<br />

BND Million<br />

from BND5,640 million to BND5,827 million and savings by 1.7<br />

percent from BND2,736 million to BND2,783 million during the<br />

same period.<br />

Other liabilities increased by 5.6 percent from BND1,951 million<br />

to BND2,060 million. On a year on year basis, the banking assets<br />

and liabilities rose by 12.9 percent from BND12,925 million in<br />

June 2003 to BND14,594 million in June 2004.<br />

Lending<br />

Lending aggregates, as shown in Table 4.2, rose by only 0.9<br />

percent from BND5,391 million in March 2004 to BND5,438<br />

million in June 2004. The main contributor to the increase was<br />

Personal Loan which comprised 66.6 percent (BND 3,621) of the<br />

total loans recorded in June 2004. Loans to Construction, General<br />

Commerce and Mortgage contributed 8.9 percent (BND484<br />

million), 8.6 percent (BND476 million), and 8.46 percent<br />

(BND460 million), respectively. Lower contributions from Agriculture<br />

(0.6 percent), Credit and Finance (0.5 percent), Manufacturing<br />

(1.67 percent), Professional Services (0.8 percent) and<br />

Transportation (3.7 percent) were also recorded<br />

As also observed in the first quarter, loan aggregates was still<br />

dominated by Personal Loans. In comparison, the share of loans<br />

to productive sectors such as Agriculture and Manufacturing to<br />

total loans was still minimal, when combined, represented only<br />

2.3 percent of total.<br />

Compared to lending direction in the first quarter’s, loans to<br />

several economic sectors were down by almost 25 percent on<br />

average. Loans to Agriculture dropped by 19.5 percent from<br />

BND41 million to BND33 million. Similarly loans to Mortgage<br />

decreased by 2.1 percent from BND470 million to BND460 million<br />

while loans to Professional Services decreased by 54.3 percent<br />

from BND94 million to BND43 million. However, loans to<br />

other sectors have recorded increases. Substantial increase was<br />

observed for loans to Credit and Finance which increased by<br />

28.6 percent from BND21 million to BND27 million. Loans to<br />

Construction increased by 7.6 percent from BND450 million to<br />

BND484 million while loans to General Commerce rose by 2.4<br />

percent from BND465 million to BND476 million. Loans to<br />

Manufacturing increased marginally by 1.1 percent from<br />

BND90 million to BND91 million while Personal Loans rose by<br />

1.5 percent from BND3,567 million to BND3,621 million. Loans<br />

to Transportation grew by 5.2 percent from BND193 million to<br />

BND203 million.<br />

Non-Performing Loans<br />

Non-performing loans (NPLs) declined further owing to the<br />

favourable economic conditions (the growth in non-oil GDP by<br />

3.9 per cent). Preliminary information in Chart 4.2, showed that<br />

NPLs based on 6-month classification moderated to BND7.63<br />

million in June 2004, down from BND14.88 million in March<br />

2004. NPLs based on 3-month classification fell to BND25.90<br />

million, down from BND29.09 million. Improvements in the<br />

level of NPLs were also due to lower incidence of new NPLs<br />

and write-offs of bad loans coupled with strong recoveries and<br />

reclassification of NPLs to performing loans.<br />

Non-performing loans aggregates decreased by 1.0 percent<br />

from BND651.74 million in March 2004 to BND645.52 million in<br />

June 2004. On a year-on-year basis, NPLs decreased by 7.5 percent<br />

from BND698.18 million in June 2003. The ratio of the NPL


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 9<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

%<br />

Chart 4.3 – Deposit Rates in<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam Banking System<br />

0.4<br />

0.35<br />

0.3<br />

0.25<br />

0.2<br />

0.15<br />

0.1<br />

0.05<br />

0<br />

Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun<br />

to loans aggregates decreased by 0.3 percentage points from 12.1 percent<br />

in March 2004 to 11.8 percent in June 2004 and decreased on a<br />

year-on-year basis by 4.1 percentage points from 15.9 percent in June<br />

2003 to 11.8 percent in June 2004. Although the decrease in the NPL<br />

was a positive sign to the banking system, the NPL was still a cause of<br />

concern and there was a need for greater domestic economic improvement<br />

and other financial tools to address the situation.<br />

On a positive note, the financial strength of the domestic banking system<br />

as a whole is still adequate to provide liquidity to finance real output<br />

expansions.<br />

Interest and Exchange Rates<br />

3 6 9 12<br />

Source: Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation<br />

CHART 5.1: BRUNEI DARUSSALAM EXPORT, IMPORT<br />

& BALANCE OF TRADE, APRIL-MAY 2003 & APRIL-<br />

MAY 2004<br />

BND Million<br />

1,000<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200<br />

-<br />

April 2003 April 2004 May 2003 May 2004<br />

Total Exports 584.0 655.4 617.5 619.0<br />

Total Imports 217.2 188.7 198.2 196.6<br />

Total Trade 801.2 844.1 815.6 815.5<br />

Balance of Trade 366.8 466.7 419.3 422.4<br />

CHART 5.2: BRUNEI DARUSSALAM EXPORT, IMPORT<br />

& BALANCE OF TRADE, JANUARY-MAY 2004<br />

BND Million<br />

150 0<br />

10 0 0<br />

500<br />

0<br />

Total Exports 689.4 627.4 714.4 655.4 619.0<br />

Total Imports 205.6 335.8 194.0 188.7 196.6<br />

Total Trade 895.1 963.2 908.4 844.1 815.5<br />

Balance of<br />

Trade<br />

Jan<br />

2004<br />

Feb<br />

2004<br />

Mar<br />

2004<br />

Apr<br />

2004<br />

May<br />

2004<br />

483.8 291.6 520.4 466.7 422.4<br />

The interest rates in the <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam banking system had declined<br />

continuously over the past five years through the end of 2003,<br />

apparently squeezed by a combination of regulatory and market pressure.<br />

Surprisingly the prime lending rates remained unchanged at 5.5<br />

percent per annum since September 2000. Deposits rates (Chart 4.3)<br />

were also unchanged as in last quarter of 2003 at 0.225 percent, 0.25<br />

percent and 0.3375 percent for the 3, 6 and 12-month deposits respectively.<br />

Savings deposit rates varied according to the amounts deposited.<br />

There is no interest for deposits of less than BND 499.99. The interest<br />

rates of 0.05 percent is specified for deposits of between BND500<br />

and BND99,999.99 and 0.1 percent for deposits of BND100,000.00 and<br />

above.<br />

Singapore’s lending rates of 5.3 percent also remained constant since<br />

the last quarter of 2003. The 3, 6 and 12-month deposits were still unchanged<br />

at 0.41 percent, 0.52 percent and 0.71 percent respectively.<br />

Similarly, the highest negotiated Singapore’s savings deposit rates of<br />

0.23 percent remained unchanged. Generally, the rates offered by<br />

banks in Singapore were more attractive for various investments than<br />

those offered by the domestic banking system.<br />

From January 2004 to June 2004, the <strong>Brunei</strong> Dollar depreciated against<br />

the US dollar from 1.6987 to 1.7120 on average and from 1.7020 to<br />

1.7243 at end of period. Based on past trend, the US dollar is expected<br />

to weaken and forecasted to prevail at 1.58 against the <strong>Brunei</strong> Dollar at<br />

the end of the year.<br />

Conclusion<br />

The growth momentum of the monetary sector as a whole were dependent<br />

on the progress in the domestic economic developments and<br />

activities and the indirect impact of the exchange rate volatility affecting<br />

demand and supply of domestic trades.<br />

External Sector<br />

Total and Balance of Trade<br />

In April 2004, the total trade was BND 844.1 million which was an increase<br />

of 5.4 per cent from BND 801.2 million in April 2003. However<br />

in May 2004, there was a slight reduction in total trade by 0.02 per cent<br />

from BND 815.6 million in May 2003 to BND 815.5 million. Similarly,<br />

total trade decreased by 3.4 per cent between April and May 2004.<br />

A trade surplus of BND 466.7 million was recorded in April 2004<br />

which was 27.2 per cent higher than April 2003 figure of BND 366.8<br />

million. In May 2004, a trade surplus was also recorded which was 0.7<br />

per cent higher from BND 419.3 million in May 2003 to BND 422.4 million.<br />

However, there was reductions in trade surplus by 9.5 per cent<br />

between April and May 2004 (Chart 5.1).<br />

Both the total trade and trade surplus showed downward trend for the<br />

period between January to May 2004 (Chart 5.2).


P AGE 10<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

CHART 5.3: EXPORTS BY MAJOR COMMODITY, JAN-MAY 2004<br />

April<br />

2003<br />

BND Million<br />

April<br />

2004<br />

May<br />

2003<br />

May<br />

2004<br />

Apr '03 &<br />

Apr '04<br />

% Change<br />

May '03<br />

& May<br />

'04<br />

Apr '04 &<br />

May '04<br />

Oil and Gas 545.0 591.2 548.8 575.3 8.5 4.8 (2.7)<br />

Petroleum 301.3 336.3 308.2 387.2 11.6 25.6 15.1<br />

LNG 243.6 254.9 240.6 188.1 4.6 (21.8) (26.2)<br />

Non-Oil &<br />

Gas<br />

39.0 64.2 68.7 43.7 64.4 (36.4) (32.0)<br />

Garment 20.8 27.4 39.7 23.4 31.8 (41.2) (14.8)<br />

Machinery<br />

& Transport<br />

Equipment<br />

11.4 29.1 16.2 13.9 154.3 (14.1) (52.2)<br />

Others 6.8 7.7 12.8 6.4 13.0 (49.9) (16.5)<br />

Total Exports<br />

BND Million<br />

900<br />

800<br />

700<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

Jan '04 Feb '04 Mar '04 Apr '04 May '04<br />

Total Exports 689.4 627.4 714.4 655.4 619.0<br />

Oil and Gas 624.6 544.6 659.0 591.2 575.3<br />

Non-Oil & Gas 64.8 82.8 55.4 64.2 43.7<br />

TABLE 5.1: EXPORTS BY MAJOR COMMODITY, APRIL-MAY 2003<br />

AND APRIL-MAY 2004<br />

584.0 655.4 617.5 619.0 12.2 0.2 (5.6)<br />

90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

BND Million<br />

Exports<br />

The total exports in April 2004 increased by 12.2 per cent from<br />

BND 584.0 million in April 2003 to BND 655.4 million. In May<br />

2004, total exports were BND 619.0 million which was an increase<br />

of 0.2 per cent from BND 617.5 million in May 2003.<br />

However there were reduction in total exports by 5.6 per cent<br />

between April and May 2004. Exports in April and May 2004<br />

were still dominated by oil and gas which contributed 90.2 per<br />

cent and 92.9 per cent of total exports respectively.<br />

With respect to the trend of total exports for the period between<br />

January and May 2004, it showed some correlation with<br />

the Oil and Gas exports since Oil and Gas were the major exports<br />

for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam (Chart 5.3).<br />

Oil and Gas exports in April 2004 were BND 591.2 million<br />

which was an increase of 8.5 per cent from BND 545.0 million<br />

in April 2003. Oil and Gas exports in May 2004 also increased<br />

by 4.8 per cent from BND 548.8 million in May 2003 to BND<br />

575.3 million. However Oil and Gas exports decreased by 5.6<br />

per cent in May 2004 on a month-month basis.<br />

Petroleum exports (crude and condensate) in May 2004 was<br />

BND 387.2 million which was 25.6 per cent higher compared<br />

to May 2003. The increase was due to higher oil price which<br />

recorded average oil price per barrel of US$39.40 in May 2004<br />

compared to US$27.18 in May 2003. Similarly, the petroleum<br />

exports increased by 11.6 per cent in April 2004 from the same<br />

month of 2003 as a result of higher oil price which recorded<br />

average oil price per barrel of US$37.23 in April 2004 compared<br />

to US$27.69 in April 2003. On month on month basis,<br />

petroleum exports increased by 15.1 per cent in May 2004.<br />

The LNG exports in April 2004 was BND 254.9 million. This<br />

was an increase of 4.6 per cent compared to BND 243.6 million<br />

in April 2003. In contrast to April 2004, the LNG exports decreased<br />

by 21.8 per cent from BND 240.6 million in May 2003<br />

to BND 188.1 million in May 2004. Similarly, the LNG exports<br />

decreased by 26.2 per cent between April and May 2004. The<br />

decrease was due to lower LNG production for exports which<br />

recorded only 908,235.81 MMBtu/day in May 2004 compared<br />

to 1,036,790.0 MMBtu/day in May 2003. The average LNG<br />

price for April and May 2004 were US$4.68 per MMBtu and<br />

US$4.74 per MMBtu respectively.<br />

The Non-Oil and Gas exports in April 2004 were BND 64.2<br />

million. This was indeed an increase of 64.4 per cent from<br />

BND 39.0 million in April 2003. The increase was mainly due<br />

to higher exports of Machinery & Transport Equipment in<br />

April 2004 of BND 29.1 million which was an increase of 154.3<br />

per cent from BND 11.4 million in April 2003.<br />

In May 2004, Non-Oil and Gas exports decreased by 36.4 per<br />

cent from BND 68.7 million in May 2003 to BND 43.7 million.<br />

This was mainly due to lower exports of Garment in May 2004<br />

of BND 23.4 million which was a decrease of 41.2 per cent<br />

from BND 39.7 million in May 2003.<br />

Similarly, Non-Oil and Gas exports decreased by 32.0 per cent<br />

in May 2004 on a month-month basis. The decrease was<br />

mainly due to lower exports of Machinery & Transport Equipment<br />

by 52.2 per cent in May 2004 (Table 5.1).


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

P AGE 11<br />

AUSTRALIA<br />

12 .7%<br />

CHINA<br />

KOREA<br />

9.7%<br />

OTHERS<br />

26.9%<br />

8.3%<br />

AUSTRALIA<br />

6.0%<br />

CHART 5.4: EXPORT MARKET IN APRIL 2004<br />

CHINA<br />

0.0%<br />

OTHERS<br />

10 .8 %<br />

JAPAN<br />

44.4%<br />

CHART 5.5: EXPORT MARKET IN MAY 2004<br />

KOREA<br />

13.9%<br />

ASEAN<br />

9.9%<br />

ASEAN<br />

22.4%<br />

JAPAN<br />

35.0%<br />

TABLE 5.2: EXPORT MARKET FOR APRIL-MAY 2003 AND APRIL-MAY 2004<br />

April<br />

2003<br />

BND Million<br />

April<br />

2004<br />

May<br />

2003<br />

May<br />

2004<br />

Apr '03<br />

& Apr<br />

'04<br />

% Change<br />

May '03<br />

& May<br />

'04<br />

Apr '04 &<br />

May '04<br />

ASEAN 151.5 147.0 157.5 61.6 (3.0) (60.9) (58.1)<br />

JAPAN 238.9 290.9 267.2 216.4 21.8 (19.0) (25.6)<br />

KOREA 48.4 63.3 45.9 86.1 30.6 87.4 36.0<br />

AUSTRA-<br />

LIA<br />

52.1 83.2 50.8 36.9 59.7 (27.4) (55.6)<br />

CHINA 29.4 0.2 30.2 51.5 (99.4) 70.6 27,356.7<br />

OTHERS 63.8 70.9 65.8 166.6 11.2 153.1 135.0<br />

TOTAL<br />

EXPORTS<br />

584.0 655.4 617.5 619.0 12.2 0.2 (5.6)<br />

TABLE 5.3: IMPORTS BY COMMODITY, APRIL-MAY 2003 AND APRIL-MAY<br />

2004<br />

BND Million<br />

% Change<br />

April<br />

'03<br />

April<br />

'04<br />

May<br />

'03<br />

May<br />

'04<br />

Apr<br />

'03 &<br />

Apr<br />

'04<br />

May<br />

'03 &<br />

May<br />

'04<br />

Apr<br />

'04 &<br />

May<br />

'04<br />

Food & live animals 30.1 23.4 23.6 31.7 (22.4) 34.3 35.5<br />

Beverages & tobacco 4.0 6.0 3.6 4.3 49.9 19.1 (28.3)<br />

Crude material inedible<br />

5.5 2.0 1.8 1.4 (63.5) (20.4) (29.2)<br />

Mineral fuels 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 (23.5) (0.5) 17.8<br />

Animal & vegetable<br />

oils and fats<br />

1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 (3.4) (8.6) 1.0<br />

Chemicals 14.9 16.5 16.8 16.7 10.2 (0.8) 1.2<br />

Manufactured goods 64.7 55.7 61.1 49.9 (14.0) (18.4) (10.4)<br />

Machinery & transport<br />

equipments<br />

70.5 61.2 68.2 68.5 (13.2) 0.4 12.0<br />

Miscellaneous manufactured<br />

articles<br />

23.7 20.5 19.0 20.7 (13.5) 8.7 1.1<br />

Miscellaneous transactions<br />

and commodities,<br />

n.e.cmanufactured<br />

articles<br />

0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 24.6 (48.5) (41.8)<br />

Total imports (c.i.f) 217.2 188.7 198.2 196.6 (13.1) (0.8) 4.2<br />

With respect to the destination of exports, in April 2004, 44.4<br />

per cent of the total exports were to Japan, followed by<br />

ASEAN countries (22.4 per cent), Australia (12.7 per cent) and<br />

Korea (9.7 per cent) (Chart 5.4). Compared to April 2003,<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong>’s exports to Australia, Korea and Japan in April 2004<br />

increased by 59.7 per cent, 30.6 per cent and 21.8 per cent respectively.<br />

Exports to China and ASEAN countries declined by<br />

99.4 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively. The huge decrease<br />

of <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s exports to China was due to no Petroleum<br />

exports in April 2004.<br />

In May 2004, Japan remained the dominant exports market<br />

which accounted for 35.0 per cent of total exports, followed by<br />

Korea (13.9 per cent), ASEAN countries (9.9 per cent), China<br />

(8.3 per cent) and Australia (6.0 per cent) (Chart 5.5). Compared<br />

to May 2003, <strong>Brunei</strong>’s exports to Korea and China in<br />

May 2004 increased by 87.4 per cent and 70.6 per cent respectively.<br />

Exports to ASEAN countries, Australia and Japan declined<br />

by 60.9 per cent, 27.4 per cent and 19.0 per cent respectively.<br />

In comparison to April 2004, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s exports in<br />

May 2004 to Korea increased by 36.0 per cent from BND 63.3<br />

million to BND 86.1 million. There was also a significant increase<br />

in exports to China from BND 187,492 in April 2004 to<br />

BND 51,479,048 in May 2004 due to exports of mineral fuels<br />

recorded at BND 51,476,041 in May 2004. However, there were<br />

reductions in exports to ASEAN Countries, Australia and Japan<br />

by 58.1 per cent, 55.6 per cent and 25.6 per cent respectively<br />

(Table 5.2).<br />

Imports<br />

In April 2004, total imports were BND 188.7 million, which<br />

was a decrease of 13.1 per cent compared to April 2003 imports<br />

of BND 217.2 million. The decrease in imports was due<br />

to the decline in the imports of Crude Material Inedible by 63.5<br />

per cent, Mineral Fuels (23.5 per cent), Food & Live Animals<br />

(22.4 per cent), Manufactured Goods (14.0 per cent), Miscellaneous<br />

Manufactures Articles (13.5 per cent), Machinery &<br />

Transport Equipment (13.2 per cent) and Animal & Vegetable<br />

Oils and Fats (3.4 per cent). Such decreases were moderated by<br />

the increases in Beverages & Tobacco by 49.9 per cent, Miscellaneous<br />

Transactions and Commodities (24.6 per cent) and<br />

Chemicals (10.2 per cent).<br />

In May 2004, total imports decreased slightly by 0.8 per cent<br />

from BND 198.2 million in May 2003 to BND 196.6 million due<br />

to the reduction in the imports of Miscellaneous Transactions<br />

and Commodities by 48.5 per cent, Crude Material Inedible<br />

(20.4 per cent), Manufactured Goods (18.4 per cent), Animal &<br />

Vegetables Oils & Fats (8.6 per cent), Chemicals (0.8 per cent)<br />

and Mineral Fuels (0.5 per cent). The increases in Food & Live<br />

Animals by 34.3 per cent, Beverages & Tobacco (19.1 per cent),<br />

Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles (8.7 per cent) and Machinery<br />

& Transport Equipment (0.4 per cent) were insufficient<br />

to offset the total reduction in imports.<br />

On the contrary, total imports increased by 4.2 per cent in May<br />

2004 on a month-on-month basis due mainly to high imports<br />

of Food & Live Animals by 35.5 per cent and also imports of<br />

Machinery & Transport Equipment by 12.0 per cent in May<br />

2004 (Table 5.3).


P AGE 12<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

CHART 5.6: TOTAL IMPORTS, JANUARY-MAY 2004<br />

350<br />

BND Million<br />

CHART 5.7: MAJOR COMMODITY IMPORTS IN<br />

APRIL 2004<br />

M iscellaneous<br />

manufactured<br />

articles<br />

10.9%<br />

Machinery &<br />

transport<br />

equipments<br />

32.4%<br />

Others<br />

6.1%<br />

Food & live<br />

animals<br />

12.4%<br />

Chemicals<br />

8.7%<br />

M anufactured<br />

goods<br />

29.5%<br />

CHART 5.8: MAJOR COMMODITY IMPORTS IN MAY<br />

2004<br />

M iscellaneous<br />

manufactured<br />

articles<br />

10.5%<br />

Machinery &<br />

transport<br />

equipments<br />

34.9%<br />

10 0 %<br />

80%<br />

60%<br />

40%<br />

20%<br />

0%<br />

300<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

11.3<br />

6.1<br />

14.1<br />

10.5<br />

29.2<br />

23.6<br />

17.7<br />

104.6<br />

Others<br />

4.6%<br />

15.1<br />

3.9<br />

11.2<br />

10.3<br />

20.4<br />

17.9<br />

17.5<br />

92.3<br />

12.2<br />

6.1<br />

9.8<br />

8.6<br />

17.8<br />

19.7<br />

24.4<br />

99.5<br />

Trend Line<br />

Jan 2004 Feb 2004 M ac 2004 Apr 2004 M ay 2004<br />

Total Imports 205.6 335.8 194.0 188.7 196.6<br />

Food & live<br />

animals<br />

16.1%<br />

Chemicals<br />

8.5%<br />

M anufactured<br />

goods<br />

25.4%<br />

CHART 5.9: ORIGIN OF IMPORTS, APRIL-MAY 2003 AND<br />

APRIL-MAY 2004<br />

BND<br />

M illion<br />

11.7<br />

6.7<br />

10.3<br />

12.2<br />

23.7<br />

21.6<br />

17.1<br />

93.2<br />

April '03 April '04 May '03 May '04<br />

ASEAN EU JAPAN USA CHINA HONG KONG AUSTRALIA OTHERS<br />

Total imports showed a downward trend for the period between<br />

January and May 2004 (Chart 5.6). The high total imports<br />

in February 2004 was due to high imports of Machinery<br />

& Transport Equipment from the European Union.<br />

In April 2004, Machinery and Transport Equipment constituted<br />

32.4 per cent of total imports, followed by Manufactured<br />

Goods (29.5 per cent), Food & live animals (12.4 per cent), Miscellaneous<br />

Manufactured Articles (10.9 per cent) and Chemicals<br />

(8.7 per cent) (Chart 5.7).<br />

In May 2004, Machinery and Transport Equipment remained<br />

the major imports commodity which accounted for 34.9 per<br />

cent of total imports, followed by Manufactured Goods (25.4<br />

per cent), Food & live animals (16.1 per cent), Miscellaneous<br />

Manufactured Articles (10.5 per cent) and Chemicals (8.5 per<br />

cent) (Chart 5.8).<br />

With regards to the origin of imports, in April 2004, 48.9 per<br />

cent of total imports were from ASEAN countries, followed by<br />

the USA (10.8 per cent), Japan (9.5 per cent), the European<br />

Union (9.3 per cent), Hong Kong (5.9 per cent), China (5.4 per<br />

cent) and Australia (2.1 per cent) (Chart 5.9).<br />

Compared to April 2003, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s imports in April<br />

2004 from Australia, the USA, Japan, Hong Kong, ASEAN<br />

countries, China and the European Union decreased by 37.0<br />

per cent, 30.1 per cent, 24.1 per cent, 20.2 per cent, 11.7 per<br />

cent, 2.6 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively.<br />

In May 2004, ASEAN countries remained the main source of<br />

imports which accounted for 47.4 per cent of total imports,<br />

followed by the USA (12.1 per cent), Japan (11.0 per cent), the<br />

European Union (8.7 per cent), China (6.2 per cent), Hong<br />

Kong (5.2 per cent) and Australia (3.4 per cent).<br />

In comparison to May 2003, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s imports in<br />

May 2004 from China increased by 42.5 per cent, followed by<br />

the USA (33.2 per cent), Australia (9.9 per cent), Japan (9.6 per<br />

cent) and Hong Kong (5.2 per cent). However, imports from<br />

the European Union and ASEAN countries declined by 29.9<br />

per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively.<br />

Compared to April 2004, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s May 2004 imports<br />

from Australia increased by 72.7 per cent, followed by<br />

Japan (20.6 per cent), China (19.0 per cent), the USA (16.0 per<br />

cent) and ASEAN countries (1.0 per cent). However, imports<br />

from Hong Kong and the European Union declined by 8.2 per<br />

cent and 2.6 per cent respectively (Table 5.4).<br />

TABLE 5.4: ORIGIN OF IMPORTS, APRIL-MAY 2003 AND APRIL-MAY 2004<br />

BND Million<br />

April '03 April '04 May '03 May '04<br />

April '03<br />

& April<br />

'04<br />

% Change<br />

May '03<br />

& May<br />

'04<br />

April '04<br />

& May<br />

'04<br />

ASEAN 104.6 92.3 99.5 93.2 (11.7) (6.3) 1.0<br />

EU 17.7 17.5 24.4 17.1 (1.0) (29.9) (2.6)<br />

JAPAN 23.6 17.9 19.7 21.6 (24.1) 9.6 20.6<br />

USA 29.2 20.4 17.8 23.7 (30.1) 33.2 16.0<br />

CHINA 10.5 10.3 8.6 12.2 (2.6) 42.5 19.0<br />

HONG<br />

KONG<br />

14.1 11.2 9.8 10.3 (20.2) 5.2 (8.2)<br />

AUSTRALIA 6.1 3.9 6.1 6.7 (37.0) 9.9 72.7<br />

OTHERS 11.3 15.1 12.2 11.7 32.9 (4.7) (22.5)<br />

TOTAL<br />

IMPORTS<br />

217.2 188.7 198.2 196.6 (13.1) (0.8) 4.2


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 13<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

Chart 6.1: <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam Average Weighted Crude Oil<br />

Prices<br />

US$/Barrel<br />

45<br />

40<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

33.41<br />

32.39<br />

32.27 32.73<br />

31.02<br />

30.98<br />

30.03<br />

31.35<br />

28.64 30.02<br />

30.35 29.35<br />

27.85<br />

27.69<br />

25.73<br />

27.07<br />

26.31 26.51 27.18<br />

24.60<br />

26.60<br />

24.76<br />

39.4<br />

38.47<br />

37.23<br />

36.22 37.83<br />

Average Weighted Crude Oil Price Index<br />

The average weighted Crude Oil Price Index (COPI) for Q2 2004 increased<br />

by 39.8 per cent year-on-year from 92 to 128.6. On a quarteron-quarter<br />

basis, the COPI increased by 7.3 per cent from 119.8 (Table<br />

6.1).<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s average weighted crude oil price decreased by<br />

3.2 per cent from US$38.47 per barrel in March 2004 to US$37.23 per<br />

barrel in April 2004 (Table 6.1 and Chart 6.1). Then it rose by 5.8 per<br />

cent to US$39.4 in May 2004. However, it decreased again by 4 per cent<br />

to US$37.83 per barrel in June 2004. The average weighted crude oil<br />

price stood at US$38.2 per barrel in Q2 2004 compared to US$27.33 per<br />

barrel in Q2 2003 and US$35.59 per barrel in Q1 2003.<br />

20<br />

APR 2002 JUL OCT JAN 2003 APR JULY OCT JAN 2004 APR<br />

Source: Petroleum Unit, Prime Minister's Office<br />

Table 6.1 : Average Weighted Price of Crude Oil<br />

Unit - US$/Barrel<br />

2001 2002 2003 2004<br />

JAN 26.24 19.67 30.02 32.73<br />

FEB 27.27 20.17 30.98 36.22<br />

MAC 26.79 22.99 33.41 38.47<br />

APR 27.75 24.76 27.69 37.23<br />

MAY 28.99 25.73 27.18 39.40<br />

JUN 28.05 24.60 27.07 37.83<br />

JUL 25.99 26.31 30.03<br />

AUG 24.91 27.85 30.35<br />

SEP 24.96 28.64 29.35<br />

OCT 20.19 26.60 32.39<br />

NOV 18.79 26.51 32.27<br />

DEC 18.60 31.02 31.35<br />

Average W.Crude Oil Price for the<br />

Year<br />

24.67 25.33 30.17<br />

Average W.Crude Oil Price Q1 26.73 20.87 33.41 35.59<br />

Average W.Crude Oil Price Q2 28.23 25.03 27.30 38.20<br />

Average W.Crude Oil Price Q3 25.29 27.59 29.33<br />

Average W.Crude Oil Price Q4 19.19 28.02 32.00<br />

Average W.Crude Oil Price 1H 27.45 22.95 30.33 36.89<br />

Average W.Crude Oil Price 2H 23.19 27.51 30.71<br />

Average Weighted Crude Oil Price Index<br />

2001 2002 2003 2004<br />

JAN 88.3 66.2 101.0 110.2<br />

FEB 91.8 67.9 104.3 121.9<br />

MAC 90.2 77.4 112.5 129.5<br />

APR 93.4 83.3 93.2 125.3<br />

MAY 97.6 86.6 91.5 132.6<br />

JUN 94.4 82.8 91.1 127.3<br />

JUL 87.5 88.6 101.1<br />

AUG 83.8 93.7 102.2<br />

SEP 84.0 96.4 98.8<br />

OCT 68.0 89.5 109.0<br />

NOV 63.2 89.2 108.6<br />

DEC 62.6 104.4 105.5<br />

Average Index for the Year 83.0 85.3 101.5<br />

Average Index for Q1 90.0 70.2 106.1 119.8<br />

Average Index for Q2 95.0 84.2 91.9 128.6<br />

Average Index for Q3 85.1 92.9 98.7<br />

Average Index for Q4 64.6 94.3 107.7<br />

Average Index for 1H 92.4 77.2 102.1<br />

Average Index for 2H 78.1 92.6 103.4<br />

Base year 2000=100<br />

Source: Petroleum Unit, Prime Minister's Office<br />

World oil prices closed at around US$35.45 per barrel at the end of Q1<br />

2004. Prices remained stable above US$33.45 per barrel throughout<br />

April 2004. May 5 then saw oil prices hit a fresh 13-year high reaching<br />

US$39.40 per barrel due to tight supplies in the US and the fear that<br />

violence in the Middle East would intensify. A day later, prices rose<br />

further to US$39.40 per barrel amid renewed violence in the Middle<br />

East.<br />

On May 13, oil prices hit an all-time high reaching US$40.60 per barrel<br />

following worries about global demand and gasoline supplies. Prices<br />

rose further on May 17 to a new record high (around US$41.40 per<br />

barrel) on concern that rapid fuel demand growth would outpace<br />

global supplies at a time when traders feared an attack on the Middle<br />

East oil infrastructure. Prices eventually fell a day later to around<br />

US$40.10 per barrel on signs that the oil producers' cartel, the Organization<br />

of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), would vote to increase<br />

production when it was due to meet in June 2004.<br />

May 24 however saw oil prices rose again to around US$41.30 per barrel<br />

due to soaring oil demand caused by global economic expansion.<br />

There has been higher than expected oil demand in industrialized<br />

countries. China’s rapidly expanding economy also has created a huge<br />

demand boost. Prices then remained stable around US$40.90 per barrel<br />

throughout the end of May 2004.<br />

On June 1, oil prices struck a new record high (around US$41.70 per<br />

barrel) on concerns that a violence campaigns by Islamic militants in<br />

Saudi Arabia could destabilize the world’s biggest crude exporter. The<br />

next two weeks subsequently saw oil prices on a falling trend to<br />

around US$38.39 per barrel amid expectations that higher OPEC production<br />

and rising imports of the United States of America (USA)<br />

would increase inventories in the USA, the world's largest energy consumer.<br />

Prices however increased again on June 18 to around US$38.50 per<br />

barrel after attacks on pipelines in Iraq. The next two weeks then saw<br />

oil prices declined gradually and eventually closed at around US$37.50<br />

per barrel at the end of June 2004.


P AGE 14<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 2004<br />

ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS<br />

<strong>Economic</strong> Outlook for Q2 2004<br />

The economy of <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam is expected to grow further in Q3<br />

2004 and again the non-oil private sector is likely to provide the momentum.<br />

On the production side, the oil and gas sector may not show<br />

significant increase due to “capacity constraint”. However, the higher<br />

oil price may contribute to higher export revenue and the resulting<br />

general spill-over effects. Furthermore, economic expansion of regional<br />

economies may help boost business confidence in this country.<br />

The non-oil private sector will be enhanced by expansions in mining,<br />

quarrying and manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail<br />

trades, transportation and communication and other services sectors.<br />

These are the sectors which have revealed significant growth during<br />

the first half of 2004. The restaurant and hotel sector in particular, will<br />

be boosted by the upcoming royal birthday and wedding functions.<br />

Furthermore, an examination of job vacancies 1 in the private sector has<br />

revealed a significant increment over the past two quarters, especially<br />

in the services sector. With better economic outlook and more investment,<br />

job opportunities are also anticipated to increase further along<br />

with non-oil sector growth.<br />

As expected, the government financial position (budget surplus) has<br />

improved in Q2 2004 compared to Q1 2004 but this was largely due to<br />

the decline in government current expenses. During the same period,<br />

the government development expenditure is expected to increase<br />

again in Q3 2004.<br />

Since October 2003, the broader measure of money supply, M2, has<br />

increased during the last three quarters. Non-performing loans have<br />

also decreased, especially after February 2004. Similarly, loans advances<br />

have also increased generally in Q2 2004 compared to the previous<br />

quarter, even though the bulk goes to personal requirements. All<br />

of these developments show some level of confidence in both the business<br />

community and the consumers and the same is expected to persist<br />

in the next quarter.<br />

On the external sector, although the trade statistics showed a decline in<br />

exports between April and May 2004, imports are increasing during<br />

the same period. This is especially true for both tradeable and investment<br />

goods such as those under machinery and transport equipment<br />

and foods and live animals categories. These trade indicators, together<br />

with the aforementioned, are positive signs of a growing economy, at<br />

least in the short and the medium term.<br />

1 These job vacancies are monitored based on those advertised in the Borneo <strong>Bulletin</strong> from January to June 2004. Between Q1 and Q2 of 2004,<br />

there was an increase in job opportunities of nearly 50 percent, from 293 to 432 job vacancies. The bulk of these opportunities (76 percent of<br />

total in Q2 2004) are in the professionals, technicians and clerical occupational categories.


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

8th NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN<br />

P AGE 15<br />

Q2 2004 Project Implementation Review<br />

For the fiscal year of 2004-2005, a total of BND 900 million has<br />

been allocated to implement some 480 projects of the 8 th National<br />

Development Plan. Out of this amount, BND 526 million has been<br />

allocated to fund 210 on-going projects, including projects which<br />

have been completed, but are awaiting penultimate and final payments.<br />

The balance of this fund (BND 374 million) will finance the implementation<br />

of the remaining 270 projects.<br />

The BND 900 million allocation has been distributed to major development<br />

sectors as shown in Table 1 below.<br />

TABLE 1: Budget Allocation by Major Sectors and Category of Projects<br />

Sectors<br />

On-Going Projects<br />

(BND) & % of Total<br />

Sectoral Allocation<br />

New Projects<br />

(BND) & % of Total Sectoral<br />

Allocation<br />

TOTAL SECTORAL<br />

ALLOCATION<br />

(BND)<br />

Industry & Commerce<br />

74,458,000<br />

(81.78%)<br />

16,590,000<br />

(18.22%)<br />

91,048,000<br />

Transport & Communication<br />

Social Services<br />

Public Utilities<br />

Public Buildings<br />

Security<br />

Miscellaneous<br />

ICT<br />

GRAND TOTAL<br />

100,429,000 67,213,000<br />

59.91% 40.09%<br />

167,642,000<br />

94,638,000 112,478,000<br />

45.69% 54.31%<br />

207,116,000<br />

90,910,000 75,580,000<br />

54.60% 45.40%<br />

166,490,000<br />

62,675,000 22,850,000<br />

73.28% 26.72%<br />

85,525,000<br />

64,250,000 28,900,000<br />

68.97% 31.03%<br />

93,150,000<br />

16,689,000 8,340,000<br />

66.68% 33.32%<br />

25,029,000<br />

22,000,000 42,000,000<br />

34.38% 65.63%<br />

64,000,000<br />

526,049,000 373,951,000 900,000,000<br />

58.45% (41.55%)<br />

100%<br />

TABLE 2: BREAKDOWN OF STATUS OF ON-GOING PROJECTS<br />

Q2 2004<br />

COMPLETED PRO-<br />

JECTS<br />

Number BND<br />

of Projects<br />

million<br />

ON-GOING PRO-<br />

JECTS<br />

Number BND<br />

of Projects<br />

million<br />

PROJECTS IN<br />

OTHER STAGES 1<br />

Number BND<br />

of million<br />

Projects<br />

TOTAL 70 79.7 129 426.5 11 19.8<br />

TABLE 3: STATUS OF NEW PROJECTS FOR Q2 2004<br />

Status<br />

Number of<br />

New Projects<br />

2004 Allocation<br />

BND million<br />

Completed 9 2.8<br />

Under Implementation 31 84.0<br />

Tender Awarded 2 2.8<br />

Awaiting Tender 33 74.1<br />

Tendering Process 28 53.9<br />

Other stages 2 167 156.3<br />

Total 270 373.9<br />

From Table 1, the Social Services Sector receives the highest allocation<br />

of BND 207 million. Out of this, 46 per cent will be utilised to<br />

fund on-going projects while the remaining 54 per cent has been<br />

allocated to finance projects that are yet to be implemented.<br />

Meanwhile, the Miscellaneous Sector receives the least allocation<br />

of just over BND 25 million, for which 67 per cent will be used to<br />

finance on-going projects.<br />

Q2 2004 IMPLEMENTATION ACHIEVEMENT: PHYSICAL<br />

STATUS<br />

A. On-Going Projects<br />

Out of 210 on-going projects, a total of 70 projects (with allocations<br />

of about BND 80 million) were completed. Table 2 summarizes the<br />

status of on-going projects.<br />

B. Newly Implemented Projects<br />

Out of a total of 270 projects, 9 were completed (with allocation of<br />

BND 2.8 million). The status of other new projects is as shown in<br />

Table 3.<br />

1 & 2<br />

Other Stages here include projects which are in the process of preparing tender documents, pre-design, design, concept formulation and<br />

awaiting appointment of consultants. It also includes projects which are being KIVed and other stages prior to implementation


P AGE 16<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

8th NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN<br />

TABLE 4: PROJECTS WITH APPROVED CONSULTANTS<br />

FOR Q2 2004<br />

No VOTE NO PROJECT DESCRIPTION<br />

1 816-007 Telemetry for BSB Sewerage System<br />

2 815-016 Renovation to Block 3 and Outpatient<br />

Clinic at Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak<br />

Saleha Hospital, BSB<br />

3 815-015 Renovation and Repair to Accident<br />

and Emergency Unit at Raja Isteri<br />

Pengiran Anak Saleha Hospital, BSB<br />

4 803-016 Development of Marine Park: National<br />

Turtle Conservation and Management<br />

Centre<br />

5 817-001- BSB/Muara/Tutong Water Supply<br />

007<br />

Scheme Stage 6: Improvements to<br />

Planned Maintenance<br />

6 801-003 Development Schemes for Fruit<br />

Industry – Phase 2 – Plantation<br />

Infrastructure Development for<br />

Merangking, Bukit Sawat, Belait<br />

District<br />

DATE OF<br />

APPOINT-<br />

MENT<br />

10-May-04<br />

18-May-04<br />

18-May-04<br />

27-May-04<br />

27-May-04<br />

27-May-04<br />

7 806-035 Medical Institute Building, UBD 27-May-04<br />

8 820-015- H3 Houses at Kg Meragang Housing 27-May-04<br />

002-003 Scheme<br />

9 820-015- H4 Houses at Kg Meragang Housing 27-May-04<br />

002-004 Scheme<br />

10 818-001-<br />

001<br />

Dumping Area, Kuala Belait, Phase 1 27-May-04<br />

Chart 1: SPENDING BY SECTORS, Q2 2004<br />

BND Millions<br />

40<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

4.77<br />

Industry &<br />

Commerce<br />

35.06<br />

Transport &<br />

Communication<br />

18 .8 9<br />

Social<br />

Services<br />

6.85<br />

Public<br />

Utilities<br />

Sectors<br />

Q2 (2004)<br />

4.25<br />

Public<br />

Buildings<br />

4.36<br />

Security<br />

0.24<br />

Miscellaneous<br />

4.05<br />

ICT<br />

B. Appointment of Consultants<br />

During Q2 2004, 10 consultants were appointed to undertake projects<br />

as shown in Table 4.<br />

Q2 2004 IMPLEMENTATION ACHIEVEMENT: FINANCIAL<br />

STATUS<br />

Warrants <strong>Issue</strong>d<br />

The breakdown of the financial warrants issued in Q2 2004, by<br />

major sectors is as shown in Table 5. A total of about BND 189<br />

million worth of warrants for all major sectors were approved. The<br />

Transport and Communication Sector received the highest<br />

amount of about BND 74 million, accounting for 41 per cent of the<br />

total value of warrants issued.<br />

Expenditure<br />

Chart 1 shows expenditure in Q2 2004 for each major sector.<br />

The Transport and Communication Sector recorded the highest<br />

expenditure, especially during Q2 2004 as compared with the rest<br />

of the major sectors. During this period, this sector spent BND 35<br />

million or 47 per cent against approved warrants of BND 74 million.<br />

The Miscellaneous Sector registered the least spending in Q2<br />

2004, amounting to BND 0.23 million or 19.7 per cent against approved<br />

warrants.<br />

Overall, expenditure in Q2 2004 amounted to BND 78.4 million or<br />

8.7 per cent against 2004-2005 allocations and about 42 per cent<br />

against approved warrants worth BND 189 million. This is shown<br />

in Table 5 and Chart 2.<br />

CHART 2: NDP Major Sectors - Allocation, Warrants, Expenditure,<br />

Q2 2004<br />

BND Millions<br />

220<br />

200<br />

180<br />

160<br />

140<br />

120<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

91<br />

12<br />

5<br />

Industry &<br />

Commerce<br />

168 166<br />

74<br />

35<br />

Transport &<br />

Communication<br />

207<br />

47<br />

19<br />

Social<br />

Services<br />

23<br />

7<br />

Sectors<br />

86<br />

93<br />

64<br />

25<br />

13<br />

7 11<br />

4 4 10.2 4<br />

2004 Allocation Warrants April 2004 - Jun 2004<br />

Expenditure April 2004 - Jun 2004<br />

Public<br />

Utilities<br />

Public<br />

Buildings<br />

Security<br />

Miscellaneous<br />

ICT<br />

Table 5: ALLOCATION, WARRANT AND EXPENDITURE, Q2 2004<br />

SECTORS<br />

2004 Allocation<br />

(BND)<br />

Warrants<br />

<strong>Issue</strong>d<br />

(BND)<br />

Percentage<br />

Of Warrants<br />

<strong>Issue</strong>d Against<br />

Total Warrants<br />

Q2 2004<br />

Expenditure<br />

(BND)<br />

Percentage of Expenditure<br />

Against Allocation<br />

Percentage of Expenditure<br />

Against Warrants<br />

Industry and Commerce 91,048,000 12,143,796 6.44% 4,768,582 5.2 39.3<br />

Transport and Communication 167,642,000 74,236,279 39.35% 35,055,782 20.9 47.2<br />

Social Services 207,116,000 47,255,236 25.05% 18,884,608 9.1 40.0<br />

Public Utilities 166,490,000 23,107,563 12.25% 6,849,292 4.1 29.6<br />

Public Building 85,525,000 13,219,957 7.01% 4,251,226 5 32.2<br />

Security 93,150,000 7,000,213 3.71% 4,362,909 4.7 62.3<br />

Miscellaneous 25,029,000 1,196,688 0.63% 235,609 0.9 19.7<br />

ICT 64,000,000 10,493,368 5.56% 4,046,751 6.3 38.6<br />

Grand total 900,000,000 188,653,100 100.00% 78,454,759 8.7 41.6


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

8th NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN<br />

P AGE 17<br />

ANALYSIS OF ACHIEVEMENTS FOR Q2 2004<br />

Approved warrants for the period of April to June 2004 totaled<br />

BND188,653,100, which was 95 per cent of the target.<br />

Expenditure for the same period of time totaled BND 78,454,759 which<br />

was 44 per cent of the target.<br />

Up to Q2 2004, the total expenditure recorded was about 42 per cent of<br />

total warrants issued for the same period, but only about 9 per cent of<br />

total allocations for the said quarter. This is shown in Table 5.<br />

On a year-on-year comparison, spending in Q2 2004 (BND 78.5 million)<br />

was a 2 per cent increased as compared to Q2 2003 (BND 77.2 million).<br />

With the increase in spending, physical status of projects had improved<br />

on a year – on – year comparison. The number of projects completed was<br />

30 per cent (79 projects) higher in Q2 2004 as compared to Q2 2003 (61<br />

projects).<br />

The record shows, from 210 on-going projects, 70 projects were completed,<br />

with total allocation of BND 80 million. Only 11 projects are in<br />

‘other stages’ category, while 129 other projects are still in<br />

‘implementation stage’, with an estimated allocation of BND 427 million.<br />

The remaining 270 new projects, with an estimated allocation of BND<br />

374 million, 9 projects were completed (with allocation of BND 2.8 million).<br />

Thirty-one (31) projects have just commenced their implementation.<br />

Sixty-three (63) projects (with allocation BND 130.8 million) that<br />

have just been awarded and projects that are in the stage of tendering,<br />

are expected to commence implementation in the third and fourth quarters<br />

of 2004.<br />

While the amount of warrants approved may be high, implementing and<br />

client agencies alike have not spent enough to meet the target of an average<br />

monthly expenditure of BND 66 million. The reasons for this may be<br />

attributed to a number of factors. However the trend appears to strongly<br />

suggest delays in many processing stages:<br />

♦ in the process of tendering of projects, specifically in the assessment<br />

of tenders by clients and implementing agencies;<br />

♦ in the processing of claims for payments;<br />

♦ in the finalization of accounts for the purpose of paying penultimate<br />

payments and release of retention funds;<br />

Delays are also caused by the re-tendering of projects due to contractors’<br />

failure to undertake or complete the work. As a result, there is an obvious<br />

need for additional efforts to address such delays in order to further<br />

improve project implementation performance.<br />

JPKE in consultation with the Ministry of Development and the Ministry<br />

of Finance are currently working towards resolving the issue.<br />

IMPLEMENTATION PROJECTION<br />

Spending in the first quarter of the financial year has been observed to be<br />

low, as with previous years. However, this will soon pick its momentum<br />

in the subsequent quarters.<br />

Four sectors will remain active in the next quarters: (1) Transport and<br />

Communications; (2) Social Services; (3) Public Utilities and (4) Public<br />

Buildings.<br />

The Security sector and Industry and Commerce sector will probably<br />

edge their way towards the four active sectors. This is shown by the drastic<br />

rise in spending for both sectors.


P AGE 18<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

SHORT TERM ECONOMIC RECOVERY<br />

Sub Total 12 276 C/D/E<br />

TOTAL 13 300 C/D/E<br />

Source: Department of Implementation and Monitoring, JPKE<br />

Table 2: Implementation Status of Housing Development Scheme<br />

Phase 1 (HDD)<br />

Site<br />

Table 1: Implementation Status of Housing Development Scheme<br />

Phase 1 (PWD)<br />

Package<br />

No. Of Types of<br />

Site<br />

Status<br />

Number<br />

Houses Houses<br />

PROJECTS RETENDERED<br />

Kg. Katok A 1 24 E ON GOING<br />

Sub Total 1 24 E<br />

PROJECTS COMPLETED<br />

2 26 E COMPLETED<br />

3 22 E COMPLETED<br />

4 25 E COMPLETED<br />

5 24 E COMPLETED<br />

6 21 D COMPLETED<br />

7 23 D COMPLETED<br />

8 23 C COMPLETED<br />

9 24 C COMPLETED<br />

10 19 C COMPLETED<br />

Kg Katok B 11 29 D COMPLETED<br />

12 20 C COMPLETED<br />

13 20 C COMPLETED<br />

Contract<br />

Number<br />

No. of<br />

Houses<br />

Types of<br />

Houses<br />

Status<br />

Completion<br />

Date/<br />

(Revised)<br />

PROJECTS RETENDERED<br />

Kg. Pandan H10B 22 TERRACE ON GOING 31/10/2004<br />

Kg. Rimba H23B 13 D ON GOING 31/07/200<br />

4<br />

H29A 20 D ON GOING 31/12/200<br />

4<br />

Sub Total :<br />

To Be<br />

Retendered<br />

3 55 TERRACE<br />

/D<br />

PROJECTS COMPLETED<br />

Lambak<br />

H35A 19 D COMPLETED<br />

Kanan<br />

Kg Pandan H10A 5 D COMPLETED<br />

H10C 22 TERRACE COMPLETED<br />

H10D 22 TERRACE COMPLETED<br />

Kg Rimba H23A 12 D COMPLETED<br />

H29B 32 D COMPLETED<br />

H29C 17 D COMPLETED<br />

H29D 27 D COMPLETED<br />

Sub Total :<br />

8 156 D,TERRACE<br />

Completed<br />

TOTAL 11 211 D,TERRACE<br />

Source: Department of Implementation and Monitoring, JPKE<br />

PUBLIC HOUSING DEVELOPMENT SCHEME<br />

First Phase<br />

A sum of BND 34,975,776 was spent under Phase 1, of which BND<br />

22,968,721 was for projects implemented by the Public Works Department<br />

(PWD) and BND 12,007,055 by the Housing Development<br />

Department (HDD).<br />

Construction of 300 houses by the Public Works Department<br />

As shown in Table 1, the contract for Package 1 involving 24<br />

houses in Kg Katok A was being mobilised on site. Altogether, 12<br />

packages were completed involving 276 houses in Kg Katok A and<br />

Kg Katok B.<br />

Out of 276 houses completed, 204 houses in Kg Katok A and Kg<br />

Katok B were handed over to beneficiaries. The remaining 72<br />

houses are expected to be handed over in Q4 2004.<br />

Construction of 211 houses by Housing Development Department<br />

Table 2 shows there are 3 remaining on-going contracts. Contract<br />

H10B, a retendered contract involving 22 terrace houses in Kg Pandan<br />

is expected to be completed by the end of October 2004. Contracts<br />

H23B could not be completed as scheduled and need an extension<br />

of time. While Contract H29A involving 20 houses in Kg<br />

Rimba are expected to be completed by the end of December this<br />

year.<br />

Infrastructure Works<br />

The status of the two infrastructure works involving road works at<br />

Kg. Katok A and Water Reticulation System in Kg. Katok B, remained<br />

unchanged since Q4 2003 (Table 3).<br />

Second Phase<br />

A total of BND 10,095,190 has been spent in the second phase.<br />

Construction of 250 houses by the Public Works Department.<br />

As shown in table 4,one of the contracts at Kg Katok B namely<br />

package 14 involving the construction of 15 houses retendered in<br />

the last quarter 2003 was finally awarded in March 2004.The progress<br />

of this contract is very slow. It is estimated to be five months<br />

behind schedule.<br />

Table 3: Implementation Status of Infrastructure Phase 1 – (PWD)<br />

Site Project Status<br />

Kg Katok A 1. Improvement of Jalan Tungku DELAYED<br />

Kg Katok B 2. Supply & Laying Water Pipe DELAYED<br />

Source : Department of Implementation and Monitoring, JPKE<br />

Table 4: Implementation Status of Housing Development Scheme—<br />

Phase 2 – (PWD)<br />

Site<br />

Package<br />

Number<br />

No. of<br />

Houses<br />

Types of<br />

Houses<br />

Status<br />

Kg Katok B 14 15 D & E ON GOING<br />

15 15 E COMPLETED<br />

Kg Katok A 16 14 D COMPLETED<br />

Kg Sungai<br />

17 22 D ON GOING<br />

Buloh<br />

18 22 D ON GOING<br />

19 28 D ON GOING<br />

20 24 D ON GOING<br />

21 24 D ON GOING<br />

22 24 D ON GOING<br />

23 23 E ON GOING<br />

24 24 E ON GOING<br />

25 15 E ON GOING<br />

Total 12 250<br />

Source : Department of Implementation and Monitoring, JPKE<br />

The construction of 206 houses at Kg Sungai Buloh under packages<br />

17-25 are still on going of which eight packages (17,19,20,21,22,23,24<br />

and 25) involving 184 houses are expected to be completed very<br />

soon. While package 18 involving 22 houses is scheduled to be completed<br />

by February 2005(Table 4).<br />

Infrastructure Works<br />

By the end of Q1 2004, in Kg. Katok A, one electrical and one water<br />

supply works have been completed while telecommunication<br />

works was delayed. In Kg. Katok B only the water works project<br />

was completed and both the electrical and communication works<br />

are delayed due to the delay in the award of contract for package 14<br />

at Kg Katok B.<br />

None of the 5 infrastructure works in Kg Sungai Buloh were completed.<br />

The 3 road works contract are still on going and are behind<br />

schedule. The electrical and telecommunication works are also delayed<br />

and have exceeded their contract period. This is mainly due<br />

to the delay in the construction of sewerline and water works.<br />

These contracts, therefore, require extension of time.


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 19<br />

SHORT TERM ECONOMIC RECOVERY<br />

MAINTENANCE OF GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS, COMPOUNDS<br />

AND ASSETS<br />

The maintenance of government buildings, compounds and assets<br />

under the Short-Term <strong>Economic</strong> Recovery Plan continues to be implemented<br />

by the Department of Planning and Estate Management,<br />

Ministry of Education and Department of Building Services, Public<br />

Works Department.<br />

TABLE 5: DISTRIBUTION OF CONTRACTS, NUMBER OF CONTRACTS &<br />

NUMBER OF SUCCESSFUL COMPANIES<br />

PHASE<br />

TOTAL NO. OF<br />

CONTRACTS<br />

NUMBER OF<br />

CONTRACTS<br />

AWARDED<br />

NUMBER OF<br />

SUCCESSFUL<br />

COMPANIES<br />

1 51 50 31<br />

2 134 128 82<br />

3 139 132 68<br />

4 66 55 33<br />

5<br />

(re-tendered)<br />

22 22 17<br />

TOTAL 412 387 231<br />

* As of 30 th June 2004<br />

The projects were implemented in 5 stages beginning March 2002 in<br />

which the first 2 phases were awarded in 2002. The third and the<br />

fourth phase of the project were awarded in the Q1 and Q2 2003<br />

respectively. The fifth phase (re-tendered) was awarded in December<br />

2003.<br />

The overall number of works tendered in the five phases was 412, in<br />

which 387 contracts were awarded to 231 successful companies<br />

(Table 5).<br />

Under Phase 1, the total number of contracts was 51 and only 50<br />

were awarded to 31 companies. For Phase 2, out of the total number<br />

of 134 contracts, only 128 contracts were awarded to 82 companies.<br />

Under Phase 3, the total number of contracts was 139 and only<br />

132 were awarded to 68 companies. A total of 66 contracts were<br />

tendered under Phase 4, whereby only 55 contracts were awarded<br />

to 33 companies. Under Phase 5, a total of 22 contracts were<br />

awarded to 17 companies (Table 5).<br />

Overall physical progress<br />

With regards to the physical progress, out of 363 contracts that were<br />

carried out, 325 contracts were completed and paid. A total of 10<br />

contracts were completed and still under final measurement stage,<br />

whilst 14 contracts were still under implementation. A total of 3<br />

contracts were to be terminated due to several reasons such as failure<br />

of the awarded contractors to complete the contracts on time.<br />

As of Q2 2004, 11 contracts were reported delayed (Table 6).<br />

Progress for each phase<br />

Phase 1<br />

TABLE 6: PHYSICAL IMPLEMENTATION PROGRESS<br />

As of 30 th June 2004, out of the 50 contracts under Phase 1, 48 were<br />

implemented of which 46 contracts were completed, 2 contracts<br />

were terminated due to the failure of the awarded contractors to<br />

complete the contracts on time while the remaining 2 contracts were<br />

delayed (Table 6). Payments made for this phase totalled BND<br />

958,137.38.<br />

PHASE<br />

NO. OF<br />

WORKS<br />

AWARDED<br />

NO. OF<br />

WORKS TER-<br />

MINATED<br />

NO. OF IMPLE-<br />

MENTED<br />

WORKS<br />

NO. OF<br />

WORKS COM-<br />

PLETED AND<br />

PAID<br />

NO. OF WORKS<br />

COMPLETED AND<br />

FINAL MEAS-<br />

UREMENT<br />

NO. OF WORKS<br />

UNDER IMPLEMEN-<br />

TATION<br />

NO.<br />

WORKS<br />

DELAYED<br />

NO. OF<br />

WORKS TO BE<br />

TERMINATED<br />

1 50 2 48 46 0 0 2 0<br />

2 128 17 111 107 1 0 1 2<br />

3 132 5 127 117 3 1 5 1<br />

4 55 0 55 40 6 9 0 0<br />

5 22 0 22 15 0 4 3 0<br />

TOTAL 387 24 363 325 10 14 11 3<br />

* As of 30 th June 2004<br />

Phase 2<br />

Under Phase 2, 82 contractors were given a total of 128 contracts<br />

amounting to BND 4,318,088.79. As of 30 th June 2004, 107 contracts<br />

out of 111 implemented were completed, 1 contract was still under<br />

final measurement stage, and 1 contract was delayed. A total of 17<br />

contracts were terminated due to failure of the awarded contractors<br />

to complete the contracts. A total of 2 contracts were to be terminated<br />

(Table 6). Payment made for this phase totaled BND<br />

3,899,752.16.


P AGE 20<br />

SHORT TERM ECONOMIC RECOVERY<br />

Phase 3<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

For Phase 3, 68 contractors were awarded a total of 132 contracts<br />

amounting to BND 10,240,663.91. At the end of Q2 2004, 117 contracts<br />

out of 127 implemented were completed, 3 contracts under<br />

final measurement stage, 1 contract under implementation, and 5<br />

were terminated. The remaining 5 contracts were delayed and 1<br />

contract will be terminated (Table 6). Payments made for this<br />

phase totalled BND 7,592,109.61.<br />

Phase 4<br />

Under phase 4, 33 contractors were awarded a total of 55 contracts<br />

with a total value of BND 4,311,024.86. As of Q2 2004, 40 contracts<br />

out of 55 implemented were completed, 6 contracts were still under<br />

final measurement stage, whilst the remaining 9 contracts were still<br />

under implementation (Table 6). Payments made for this phase<br />

totalled BND 2,337,462.70.<br />

Phase 5<br />

Out of 22 re-tendered contracts which were implemented under<br />

Phase 5, 15 contracts were completed, 4 under implementation, and<br />

3 were delayed (Table 6). As of 30 th June 2004, payments made for<br />

this phase totalled BND 204,997.37.<br />

WORKING CAPITAL CREDIT FUND SCHEME<br />

Table 7: Loans Approved by Banks According To <strong>Economic</strong><br />

Sectors, Q2 2004.<br />

In Q2 of 2004, 21 loan applications with a total value of BND<br />

4,189,113.00 were approved (Table 7). These loans were for financing<br />

projects in the sectors construction (51.6 per cent), ICT (16.8 per<br />

cent), business (16.7 per cent), services (12.4 per cent), primary resources<br />

(1.3 per cent), and manufacturing (1.2 per cent).<br />

SECTORS<br />

NUMBER OF<br />

LOANS AP-<br />

PROVED<br />

SERVICES 8<br />

BUSINESS 6<br />

CONSTRUCTION 4<br />

ICT 1<br />

MANUFACTURING 1<br />

PRIMARY RESOURCES 1<br />

BAIDURI<br />

(BND)<br />

30,000<br />

(1)<br />

220,000<br />

(2)<br />

1,492,531<br />

(1)<br />

704,182<br />

(1)<br />

LOAN AMOUNTS APPROVED THROUGH BANKS<br />

(No. of Loans in bracket)<br />

HSBC<br />

(BND)<br />

430,000<br />

(3)<br />

450,000<br />

(2)<br />

50,000<br />

(1)<br />

IBB<br />

(BND)<br />

257,400<br />

(5)<br />

50,000<br />

(1)<br />

220,000<br />

(1)<br />

55,000<br />

(1)<br />

IDBB<br />

(BND)<br />

230,000<br />

(2)<br />

TOTAL<br />

(BND)<br />

517,400<br />

700,000<br />

2,162,531<br />

704,182<br />

50,000<br />

55,000<br />

TOTAL 21 2,446,713 930,000 582,400 230,000 4,189,113<br />

Table 8: Loans Approved in the Working Capital Credit Fund,<br />

January 2001 – June 2004<br />

SECTORS<br />

LOANS APPROVED<br />

VALUE<br />

NO<br />

BND<br />

Services 77 11,204,400.00<br />

Primary <strong>Resources</strong> 16 4,243,400.00<br />

Business 43 4,935,072.00<br />

ICT 22 10,628,604.00<br />

Manufacturing 4 354,000.00<br />

Tourism 2 555,000<br />

Construction 34 13,534,809.00<br />

Total 198 45,455,285.00<br />

By comparison, in Q2 2003, 10 loans were approved amounting to<br />

BND 1,116,200.00. The loans approved for Q2 2004 reflect the continuing<br />

high interest of entrepreneurs on the scheme as observed<br />

in Q1 2004, where 20 loans were approved with the amount of<br />

BND 5,187,300.00. Since the introduction of the scheme in January<br />

2001 until June this year, the total number of loans approved<br />

reached 198 and the overall value BND 45,455,285.00 (Table 8).<br />

Loans were distributed to all categories of firm ownership, with<br />

79.0 per cent going to firms owned by Rakyat Jati and majority<br />

Rakyat Jati (Table 9).<br />

Table 9: Loan Approved To Firms<br />

Firms<br />

Number<br />

♦ Proportion<br />

Loan Amounts<br />

Value<br />

♦ Proportion<br />

‘Rakyat Jati’<br />

135<br />

68.2%<br />

BND 29,111,179<br />

64.1%<br />

Category of Company Ownership<br />

‘Rakyat Jati’<br />

Majority<br />

30<br />

15.2%<br />

BND 6,643,897<br />

14.6%<br />

Majority Citizens and<br />

Permanent Residence<br />

26<br />

13.1%<br />

BND 6,737,678<br />

14.8%<br />

Citizens and others<br />

7<br />

3.5%<br />

BND 2,962,531<br />

6.5%<br />

Total<br />

198<br />

100%<br />

BND 45,455,285.00<br />

100%


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 21<br />

THE LONG TERM OBJECTIVES OF BRUNEI DARUSSALAM’S DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF 1986-<br />

2005: What has been the level of achievement in enhancing the quality of life?<br />

Introduction<br />

Since regaining its full independence, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam has<br />

gone through nearly two decades of National Development Plan<br />

(NDP) programs which started in 1986. Since then this country<br />

has experienced various economic and socio-political transformations<br />

which have influenced the quality of life of its people. For<br />

the first time in 1986, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam engaged itself in its plan<br />

for long term development encompassing a period of two decades<br />

(1986-2005) and embracing four National Development Plans,<br />

starting with the 5 th NDP. Obviously, the outlined long term development<br />

objectives have their roots in and basis on developmental<br />

experiences prior to 1986 as well as on the aspirations during<br />

that time for the future.<br />

This article reviews the socio-economic achievements that have<br />

been observed in <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam with respect to some relevant<br />

long term objectives. The achievements are analyzed based<br />

on policies and programs as incorporated in the corresponding<br />

National Development Plans. A number of variables could be utilized<br />

to examine the quality of life of the people. In this article,<br />

quality of life is appraised based on indicators of the basic necessities<br />

of life, namely, education, health and housing and to some<br />

extent the environment. Wherever relevant, cross-country benchmarking<br />

is done to examine <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s position vis-àvis<br />

those countries during certain period of time. If the indicators<br />

show some level of under-achievements then they signal to some<br />

presence of pertinent issues that need to be considered seriously.<br />

These are the challenges and problems that need to be addressed<br />

in future planning.<br />

MACROECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND THE LONG<br />

TERM NDP OBJECTIVES<br />

For any nations, irrespective of whether they are developed, developing or<br />

less developed countries, their economic progress are based on the<br />

achievement of basic macroeconomic objectives which ultimately leads to<br />

maintenance if not improvement in the people’s quality of life. The macroeconomic<br />

objectives ensure:<br />

ο Sustainable economic growth;<br />

ο Full employment of resources;<br />

ο Price Stability;<br />

ο Equitable distribution of income; and<br />

ο External balance.<br />

For some countries, even though some of the above objectives are<br />

not outlined explicitly, they are expressed in a different way and<br />

yet are inclined towards the ultimate goals of the macroeconomic<br />

objectives. For <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam, it has outlined its nine longterm<br />

development objectives which carry with them some elements<br />

of the macroeconomic objectives, as shown in BOX 1. Apart<br />

from addressing the macroeconomic objectives, some of the long<br />

term objectives also emphasized on social welfare and the environment<br />

as well as the interests of the indigenous <strong>Brunei</strong> citizens.<br />

Even though the objective of equitable distribution of income is<br />

not expressed explicitly, this objective has been practiced in<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam in its very own way in the form of in-kind<br />

transfers. These include the provision of services in education,<br />

health and other social services with minimum charges or even<br />

virtually-free. Indeed, the government has a very important role<br />

in this respect through the opening of its employment opportunities<br />

and the arrays of generous fringe benefits.


P AGE 22<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

THE LONG TERM OBJECTIVES OF BRUNEI DARUSSALAM’S DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF 1986-<br />

2005: What has been the level of achievement in enhancing the quality of life?<br />

BOX 1<br />

THE LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES 1986-2005<br />

ο Improve the quality of life;<br />

ο Maximize (optimize) the economic utilization of national resources;<br />

ο Develop new export-oriented and import substitution industries;<br />

ο Accelerate human resources development to meet the demand of an increasingly sophisticated<br />

economy;<br />

ο Maintain full employment and increase productivity level;<br />

ο Maintain a moderate rate of inflation;<br />

ο Foster a dynamic, disciplined and caring society with its citizens as agents for progress<br />

and development;<br />

ο Encourage and nurture the development of “Rakyat Melayu” as leaders of industry and<br />

commerce; and<br />

ο Have a clean and healthy environment.<br />

The National Development Plans, commencing with the 5th NDP,<br />

were developed based on the nine long term objectives. Almost all<br />

of the development programs are centered on physical infrastructure<br />

developments. These physical infrastructure developments of<br />

course are inevitable and are precursor to and complement of human<br />

development. However, it was argued that once a country<br />

has gone through or “completed” the development of these prerequisites,<br />

attention should be emphasized on soft infrastructure<br />

development. In this respect the 8 th NDP is pivotal as it has placed<br />

a premium on non-physical infrastructural programs. The 8 th NDP<br />

budget has been specifically apportioned to areas in human resources,<br />

science and technology and ICT developments. Furthermore,<br />

these efforts will be instrumental in taking <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam<br />

forward into the new economy of the 21 st century. None the<br />

less, the relationship between physical infrastructure and human<br />

development will become obscure if their development is not<br />

based on a systematic and strategic planning. In this respect, the<br />

formulation of an acceptable national vision supported by outlines<br />

of long term perspectives plan is necessary.<br />

ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT<br />

OBJECTIVES<br />

The long term objectives outlined above represent both aspects of<br />

development, economic and socio-political ones. Both aspects are<br />

obviously intimately-related and two-way in nature. On the one<br />

hand, the sustainability and strength of economic growth are the<br />

foundations of socio-political integrity. On the other hand, sociopolitical<br />

integrity and stability are necessary and pre-conditions<br />

for the economy to grow. The ultimatum borne out of sociopolitical<br />

cohesion and economic expansion is of course improvement<br />

in the quality of life 1 . The quality of life of the people could<br />

be evaluated, among others, through indicators of life expectancy,<br />

literacy rate and per capita income, all of which requires aspects of<br />

economic growth, employment generation, low inflation rate and<br />

stable socio-political and natural environment.<br />

Whatever the intentions and efforts on the part of the government<br />

with regard to economic development, the improvement in the<br />

quality of life is still the ultimate goal. This aspect of development<br />

fits into the universal and current trend of development which<br />

1 The long term development objectives outlined in BOX 1 are interdependent, especially for the first objective to improve the quality of life of the people. This objective<br />

is realized by the other eight objectives; it is the end product and therefore merits being the ultimate goals of development.


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 23<br />

THE LONG TERM OBJECTIVES OF BRUNEI DARUSSALAM’S DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF 1986-<br />

2005: What has been the level of achievement in enhancing the quality of life?<br />

BOX 2<br />

QUALITY OF LIFE INDICATORS<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

people;<br />

♦ population growth and density<br />

♦ population structure<br />

♦ families and households<br />

knowledge and skills;<br />

♦ educational enrolment<br />

♦ qualification levels<br />

economic standard of living;<br />

♦ income level<br />

♦ household expenditure<br />

♦ social deprivation<br />

♦ costs<br />

economic development;<br />

♦ economic growth<br />

♦ employment<br />

♦ growth in entrepreneur<br />

♦ retail sales<br />

♦ tourism<br />

housing;<br />

♦ housing costs and affordability<br />

♦ size of households<br />

♦ government housing provision<br />

health;<br />

♦ life expectancy<br />

♦ infant mortality<br />

♦ diseases<br />

♦ access to medical and health facilities<br />

natural environment;<br />

♦ waste management<br />

♦ air and water quality<br />

♦ biodiversity<br />

♦ drinking water quality<br />

built environment;<br />

♦ city environment<br />

♦ green space<br />

♦ noise pollution<br />

♦ traffic and transport<br />

♦ public transport<br />

safety and comfort;<br />

♦ perception of safety<br />

♦ road casualties<br />

♦ crime levels<br />

social connectedness; and<br />

♦ electronic communications<br />

♦ community strength and spirit<br />

♦ diversity<br />

civil and political rights.<br />

♦ Involvement in decision making<br />

Source: Quality of Life in New Zealand’s 8 Largest City 2003<br />

CHART 1<br />

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM’S GDP PER CAPITA, 1985-2003<br />

GDP per CAPITA (BND)<br />

40000<br />

35000<br />

30000<br />

25000<br />

20000<br />

150 0 0<br />

10 0 0 0<br />

5000<br />

0<br />

1985<br />

1987<br />

1989<br />

1991<br />

1993<br />

1995<br />

1997<br />

1999<br />

2001<br />

2003<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

OIL PRICE (USD)<br />

emphasizes “development with a human face” 2 . The trends in the<br />

quality of life indicators enable us to fathom whether a nation has<br />

accomplished its socio-economic objectives and targets. For <strong>Brunei</strong><br />

Darussalam, all the long term objectives outlined above are supportive<br />

of the ultimate goal to improve the quality of life of the<br />

people.<br />

From a universal perspective, the objective to improve the quality<br />

of life covers some characteristics and indicators as listed in BOX<br />

2. For most of the characteristics listed, government has a vital<br />

role to help accomplish them, more so for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam<br />

which has been well known for its welfarism. In this respect, according<br />

to the United Nations Development Programme, <strong>Brunei</strong><br />

Darussalam is ranked 33 rd among 177 nations on its Human Development<br />

Index of 2004 3 . <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam is ranked top<br />

among Islamic nations, second only after Singapore among<br />

ASEAN member countries; and 5 th among Asians (Japan, Hong<br />

Kong, Singapore, South Korea and <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam in that order).<br />

From one perspective, such an achievement is a pride to the nation.<br />

However, what is more important is the degrees to which we<br />

as a nation are able to sustain if not improve on it. In terms of life<br />

expectancy, registration in educational institutions and the literacy<br />

rate, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s achievement is relatively high and<br />

even surpassing those attained by some developed countries.<br />

However, the generally declining trend since the early 1980’s in<br />

the per capita income variable signals toward the need for a more<br />

concerted effort in improving it. This is especially true where<br />

there is a wide gap between the per capita income arising out of<br />

the oil and gas industry and that of the non-oil and gas private<br />

economy. Improvement in the per capita income is one of the important<br />

pre-conditions for further growth and structural change.<br />

CHART 1 shows the GDP per Capita for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam between<br />

1985 and 2003. The trend in GDP per Capita shows a close<br />

relationship with oil price, at least between 1985 and 1999. The<br />

high GDP per Capita for 1985 reflects the relatively high price of<br />

oil during that year (US$26.50 per barrel). In 1998, the world’s oil<br />

price dropped drastically to US$11.91 per barrel and the GDP per<br />

Capita moved in the same direction.<br />

Since the 1970’s, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam has been one of the world’s<br />

richest countries. In 2002 (based on UNDP Human Development<br />

Index of 2004), in terms of the GDP per Capita it is fourth among<br />

East Asian nations after Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. However,<br />

due to <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s dependence on oil and gas resources,<br />

the GDP per Capita does not truly indicate a strong relationship<br />

between economic growth and development. On the one<br />

hand, there is the issue of sustainability of this economic structure.<br />

While the benefits to the country as a whole are obvious, this economic<br />

structure suffers the problems characteristic of rentierism 4 .<br />

On the other hand, however, especially in consideration of the<br />

strong role of the <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s government in the distribution<br />

of wealth, the relatively high GDP per capita is a positive<br />

indication of the overall development of the economy. But this<br />

should not preclude us from examining the real and long-term<br />

effects on the well-being of the people.<br />

Theoretically, the trickle down effect of growth arising out of a<br />

vital sector 5 to the economy occurs through forward and back-<br />

2 United Nations Development Programme<br />

3 Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite index of human development which takes into consideration indexes of Per Capita Income, Literacy Rate and Enrolment<br />

in Educational Institutions and Life Expectancy.<br />

4 Rentierism refers to (is measured as) the proportion of rents in government revenue, with 40 % as the benchmark. Rentierism and natural resource dependency are<br />

not the same thing, though in practice they are highly correlated. Natural resource dependency is generally measured as the share of natural resource exports as a<br />

percentage of GDP. (Herb, 2003).<br />

5 For <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam this refers to the oil and gas sector, which has been the staple of the economy for more than three decades.


P AGE 24<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

THE LONG TERM OBJECTIVES OF BRUNEI DARUSSALAM’S DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF 1986-<br />

2005: What has been the level of achievement in enhancing the quality of life?<br />

CHART 2<br />

THE RATES OF INFLATION IN BRUNEI DARUSSA-<br />

LAM, 1986-2003<br />

7<br />

%<br />

6<br />

5<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1<br />

0<br />

-1 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003<br />

-2<br />

-3<br />

CHART 3<br />

COMPARISON OF THE RATES OF INFLATION IN<br />

ASEAN5, 1992-2002<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

-2<br />

-4<br />

4.3 2.4 6 2<br />

1.3 1.7 -0.4 -0.1<br />

-2.3<br />

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> M alaysia Philippines<br />

Singapore<br />

Thailand<br />

1.2<br />

0.6<br />

ward linkages, consumption linkage and fiscal linkage. In this linkage<br />

context, Tse and Fernandez (1987), based on available information during<br />

the time of write-up, contends that the experience of <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam<br />

economic development in the 1970’s and early 80’s was one where there<br />

was “growth without development”. In other words, economic growth<br />

(growth in output) during the period under consideration did not contribute<br />

significantly to socio-economic development. That was then.<br />

However, what needs to be put in the right perspective is the fact that<br />

socio-economic development in <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam is unique. Forward<br />

and backward linkages and consumption linkage may be minimal but<br />

fiscal linkage is strong. Today, the government, for example, has been an<br />

important source of employment opportunities for its people, afforded to<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong>ans a wide range of social services and in many cases virtually<br />

free. Sustainability, of course is the most pertinent issue in this respect.<br />

The quality of life or standard of living is also related to the costs of living.<br />

If the costs to support decent lifestyles are high, it will translate into<br />

a decline in the purchasing power of nominal dollar. Generally, the costs<br />

of living are associated with the rates of inflation. The higher the rates of<br />

inflation in an economy, the more expensive it is to purchase goods of<br />

the same worth as before. The trend for the rates of inflation for <strong>Brunei</strong><br />

Darussalam between 1986 and 2003 is shown in CHART 2. On average,<br />

the rate of inflation during the period is approximately 1.5 percent,<br />

which is quite low and satisfies the national long-term objective to maintain<br />

a moderate rate of inflation. However, there are a few exceptions<br />

during the period where the rates are very much higher in 1993 (4.3 percent)<br />

and 1995 (6.0 percent). Apart from that, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam has also<br />

experienced a deflation of -2.3 percent in 2002. A deflation is a situation<br />

where an economy experiences a decrease in the general price level.<br />

Typically, the benefits of deflation go to consumers and purchasers of<br />

intermediate inputs.<br />

The control or stabilization of price levels in <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam is<br />

mainly sought through administrative procedures rather than through<br />

monetary devices (policies) as usually practiced in other economies. The<br />

trend in the rates of inflation in <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam reflects the country’s<br />

trade policies. The increase in the rate of inflation in 1995, for example,<br />

was in line with the government’s decision to increase import duties on<br />

automobiles in early 1995; from 20 percent to as high as 200 percent according<br />

to engine capacity. When the government made a u-turn in November<br />

2001 by decreasing the the import duties to their original acrossthe-board<br />

rate of 20 percent (15 percent for heavy vehicles), the policy is<br />

reflected in the negative inflation rate for 2002. Apart from policies as<br />

such, the government had also enacted the Price Control Act in 1977.<br />

Continuous monitoring has been practiced to prevent deliberate price<br />

increases.<br />

However, because <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam imports almost all of its economic<br />

requirements, it has not been able to contain inflationary pressures arising<br />

out of its import trading partners. In this regard, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam<br />

faces the policy dilemma that befits common interests, between nations<br />

as well as between consumers and producers within <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam.<br />

The adoption of import substitution policy, for example, will become<br />

more meaningful if the costs of production in this country are low and<br />

competitive. To some extent, such a policy will enable <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam<br />

to reduce imported inflation. Never the less, the participation and<br />

membership of <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam in ASEAN Free Trade Arrangement<br />

(AFTA), for example, is beneficial to consumers even though this may<br />

have some negative effects on potential producers of homogenous or<br />

related goods.<br />

CHART 3 indicates the rate of inflation for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam relative to<br />

those rates experienced by ASEAN4. In comparing the inflation rates for<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam with respect to the ASEAN4 rates, there is a general


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 25<br />

THE LONG TERM OBJECTIVES OF BRUNEI DARUSSALAM’S DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF 1986-<br />

2005: What has been the level of achievement in enhancing the quality of life?<br />

%<br />

CHART 4<br />

LITERACY RATES FOR BRUNEI DARUSSALAM AND<br />

SELECTED<br />

100<br />

98<br />

96<br />

94<br />

92<br />

90<br />

88<br />

86<br />

84<br />

82<br />

94.7<br />

87.9<br />

92.5<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam Malaysia Singapore Japan South Korea Hong Kong<br />

99.0<br />

97.9<br />

93.5<br />

trend that the rates for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam is lower especially when<br />

compared to that of the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia. After 1995,<br />

the inflation rates of <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam were a mirror image of the rates<br />

of inflation of Singapore. While Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines<br />

were adversely affected, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam (and Singapore) seemed to<br />

have been insulated from the negative effects of the Asian Financial Crisis<br />

in 1998. The effects of the financial crisis had been prominent on the<br />

exchange rates of countries in the region but the effects were relatively<br />

in favour of the <strong>Brunei</strong>an currency. Both Malaysia and Singapore are<br />

major trading partners of <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam, especially as a source of<br />

imports. The deflation in 2002 for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam reflects not only<br />

on the trade policy it has adopted, but also on the movement of inflation<br />

rates in its trading partners. Specifically, as observed in Chart 3, this is<br />

shown by the identical trend in the direction of Singapore’s inflation<br />

rate. The stabilization effects of the rates of inflation in the other ASEAN<br />

countries seemed to be at work during the period under consideration.<br />

In this case, observe that the inflation rates for Singapore, Philippines<br />

and Thailand move in the downward direction. In other words, since we<br />

import substantially from these countries, any downward trend in their<br />

inflation rates will translate into lower rate of inflation for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam.<br />

Human resources development is an important basis for the improvement<br />

of the quality of life. When the level and quality of education improved<br />

over time, in general it is associated with the same improvement<br />

in the quality of life of individuals employed with higher wages. In its<br />

unrelenting efforts to ensure a high quality of life of the people, the government<br />

has undertaken numerous programs that give direct effects to<br />

the quality of life especially in education, medical and health and housing.<br />

In the areas of education, programs related to the provision of basic<br />

infrastructure and human resources development has been undertaken<br />

and progressing. The country’s achievement in education has been relatively<br />

high. Indicators such as the literacy rate and the rate of enrolment<br />

in educational institutions are at par with, if not better than, the more<br />

developed nations.<br />

The rates of literacy depicted in CHART 4 shows the rate for <strong>Brunei</strong><br />

Darussalam in relation to the rates for regional economies in 2001. The<br />

literacy rate (94.7 percent) for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam is relatively high. It is<br />

higher than the rates for Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong although<br />

far below that of Japan and South Korea. What is more important for<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam apart from improving the rates of literacy and registration<br />

in educational institutions is to ensure a high level of quality of<br />

its human resources that could help bring the country forward. This<br />

issue becomes more relevant in an era where the competitive advantage<br />

of a nation is the educational quality of its people especially in the areas<br />

of science and technology and research and development.<br />

A number of other indicators could be utilized to gauge both the quality<br />

and quantity of educational standards apart from the literacy rates. Indicators<br />

such as registration in educational institutions, the<br />

teacher:student ratio, the percentage of students in tertiary education as<br />

well as the proportion of expenditure on education out of total expenditure,<br />

all have shown encouraging developments and helps positively<br />

towards improving the quality of life of <strong>Brunei</strong>ans.<br />

Reflections about the quality of life could also be seen through health<br />

indicators. In this context, the indicator of life expectancy is the general<br />

measurement for the quality of life of the people. Life expectancy indicator<br />

is vital as it reflects socio-economic progress in connection to life<br />

styles, access to medical and health services as well as the implied development<br />

in other aspects of medical and health. In this respect, the<br />

government has also played important roles in ensuring high health<br />

standards through the implementation of various programs and strategies<br />

within and outside of the National Development Plans. Improvement<br />

in the quality of life has also directly helped the development in


P AGE 26<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

THE LONG TERM OBJECTIVES OF BRUNEI DARUSSALAM’S DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF 1986-<br />

2005: What has been the level of achievement in enhancing the quality of life?<br />

Years<br />

%<br />

CHART 5<br />

LIFE EXPECTANCY RATES FOR BRUNEI DARUSSA-<br />

LAM AND SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES, 2001<br />

82<br />

80<br />

78<br />

76<br />

74<br />

72<br />

70<br />

68<br />

76.1<br />

72.8<br />

78.1<br />

81.3<br />

75.2<br />

79.7<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam Malaysia Singapore Japan South Korea Hong Kong<br />

CHART 6<br />

INFANT MORTALITY RATES FOR BRUNEI DARUSSA-<br />

LAM AND SELECTED ASIAN NATIONS, 2001<br />

9<br />

8<br />

7<br />

6<br />

5<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1<br />

0<br />

6.8<br />

8.0<br />

3.0 3.0<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam Malaysia Singapore Japan South Korea<br />

TABLE 1<br />

THE AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD IN BRUNEI DA-<br />

RUSSALAM<br />

5.0<br />

1981 1991 2001<br />

Average size of household 5.8 5.8 6.0<br />

medical and health especially medical and health services supplied by<br />

the private sector. In a way this has lightened the burden of the government<br />

in terms of its medical and health expenditures.<br />

CHART 5 gives another picture about the quality of life in <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam<br />

where the life expectancy in 2001 is 76.1 years which is lower<br />

compared to 78.1 years for Singapore and 81.3 years for Japan. Never<br />

the less, the life expectancy for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam is higher compared<br />

to Malaysia and South Korea. On a gender basis, in 2001 the life expectancy<br />

for male is 74.0 years while it is 77.1 years for the female. This is<br />

an improvement compared to 1991 where the rates are 72.1 years for the<br />

male and 76.5 for the female. In reflecting the relationship between GDP<br />

Per Capita and Life Expectancy, especially for Japan, Hong Kong and<br />

Singapore, there seemed to be some correlation between the two variables.<br />

This implies that one of the important policies is to improve on<br />

income generation. But the trend in the kind of diseases and health<br />

problems inflicting the <strong>Brunei</strong>an population, i.e. those related to affluence<br />

such as heart diseases, cancer, hypertension, obesity and diabetes,<br />

signals to the needs of non-income policies.<br />

Apart from life expectancy rates, health quality could also be associated<br />

with the indicator of infant mortality per 1,000 births. This indicator is a<br />

reflection of the success, or otherwise, of health-care programs as well as<br />

the level of health-care awareness. For <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam, the mortality<br />

rate of 6.8 per 1,000 births shows some positive development even<br />

though this rate is higher compared to those experienced by the more<br />

developed nations such as Singapore and Japan. (CHART 6) Indeed,<br />

this rate is far lower compared to 21.7 per 1,000 births in 1979 and 12.1<br />

per thousand births in 1985. Efforts, though, needs to be multipled to<br />

narrow the gap between that experienced by <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam and<br />

other countries which have lower infant mortality rates.<br />

The ability to acquire a decent dwelling is also one of the basic necessities<br />

for a respectable standard of living. A number of factors could be<br />

taken into consideration when analyzing issues related to housing. This<br />

includes the ability to purchase and the cost of housing, household overcrowding,<br />

house ownership and the role of the government in providing<br />

and subsidizing the purchase of housing. Overcrowding in a household<br />

could be analyzed through the indicator of the size of household.<br />

This indicator is vital in determining accessibility and ability to purchase<br />

a home, especially for the head of a household. For the low income<br />

earner and those with limited ability to ownership usually share a<br />

home with other family members. This indicator also tells the extent of<br />

housing needs of the masses. Apart from those issues, an overcrowded<br />

dwelling may lead to undesirable health and educational problems.<br />

For <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam, the provision of housing and facilitation of<br />

house ownership has been one of the many priorities of the government.<br />

This includes the provision of zero interest loan schemes for government<br />

employees, housing schemes of various kinds, resettlement and<br />

land ownership for its citizens. The achievement in the provision of<br />

housing through housing schemes has been far below the ideal level.<br />

The waiting list for housing scheme continued to be long, perhaps,<br />

partly due to the rapid population growth in the 1980’s.<br />

In general, TABLE 1 shows the average size of household in <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam.<br />

The stagnating size of household in <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam since<br />

the early 1980’s signals the need to step-up effort and efficiency in housing<br />

provision especially in the process of housing development 6 . Even<br />

though the population growth for <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam has declined to<br />

2.5 percent in 2001 compared to 3.1 percent in 1991, the demand for<br />

housing has increased overwhelmingly. This was partly due to the<br />

population structure of <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam where a very large percentage<br />

consists of the young population. In the future, the demand for<br />

housing is bound to be high as well, as the population structure<br />

changed very little since the 1980’s.<br />

6 The slightly higher average size of household in 2001 (6.0 persons) may be due to the employment of domestic helpers, personal drivers and gardeners.


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 27<br />

THE LONG TERM OBJECTIVES OF BRUNEI DARUSSALAM’S DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF 1986-<br />

2005: What has been the level of achievement in enhancing the quality of life?<br />

TABLE 2: THE APPLICATIONS FOR AND PROVISION<br />

OF HOUSING UNDER THE NATIONAL HOUSING<br />

SCHEME<br />

2001 2002 2003<br />

APPLICATIONS 15,735 15,297 15,128<br />

PROVISION OF<br />

HOUSING<br />

438 169 264<br />

SHORTFALL (15,297) (15,128) (14,864)<br />

300,000<br />

250,000<br />

200,000<br />

Ha 150,000<br />

100,000<br />

50,000<br />

0<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong>-Muara Belait Tutong Temburong<br />

District Area<br />

Source: Department of Forestry Website<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

♦<br />

Estimated areas covered by forest<br />

BOX 3<br />

STRATEGIES TO ENSURE CLEAN AND<br />

HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT<br />

Ensure optimal utilization of natural resources<br />

Prevent and reduce the negative effects on<br />

the environment as a result of population<br />

growth and human activities<br />

Ensue a balance between socio-economic<br />

objectives and a quality and sustainable<br />

environmental concerns<br />

Increase the utilization of latest and environment<br />

friendly technology<br />

Enhance control and enforcement mechanism<br />

Enhance awareness of and support from the<br />

public<br />

Improve on existing public amenities and<br />

services<br />

In TABLE 2, the issue of housing in <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam could be observed<br />

where the provision of houses to the masses through a number<br />

of government housing schemes are unable to meet the increasing demand.<br />

From the demand side, the population structure as mentioned<br />

above is an important variable. This is also true of the levels of income<br />

which play differing roles. From one perspective, for a family with a low<br />

income per capita this may force them to share dwelling with their close<br />

relative, or if affordable, may choose a low-cost housing scheme. From<br />

the other point of view, for a family with above average to high per capita<br />

income they may opt for a corresponding housing scheme such as<br />

the government employee housing scheme. Whatever the circumstances,<br />

the national housing scheme undoubtedly is faced with excessive<br />

demand due to a number of factors such as the availability of financial<br />

loans, provision of land for housing development and infrastructural<br />

facilities.<br />

As we have observed, the main issue faced by the authority is a situation<br />

where the demand for housing scheme is far in excess of the ability<br />

to supply or provide it. Generally, between 2001 and 2003, the national<br />

housing scheme has been able to provide to less than 2.0 percent of the<br />

demand. This implies and necessitates a reassessment of both the housing<br />

and related policy itself as well as the mechanism in the provision of<br />

the houses. As iterated above, a shortfall in housing leads to negative<br />

implications to the people.<br />

The natural as well as the built environment have important roles in<br />

helping to maintain if not improve the quality of life of the people. The<br />

quality of life can also be measured based on a few indicators such as<br />

forest coverage, air and water quality, the quality of piped water and the<br />

quality of natural environment such as beaches and river as well as the<br />

built environment. Population growth and economic growth usually<br />

exert pressure on the sustainability and richness of the natural environment.<br />

Strains due to urbanization and its enlargement and industrial<br />

development lead to issues related to the system and management of<br />

drainage, waste disposal and sewerage.<br />

In <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam, population growth has indeed put a strain on the<br />

balance between the enlargement of urban areas and the natural environment.<br />

Even though the total area covered by virgin forest is still<br />

abundant compared to developed areas (CHART 7), there are areas<br />

such as the <strong>Brunei</strong> and Muara district with high population density and<br />

rapid economic growth, that have shown symptoms of strain and imbalance.<br />

In terms of air and water quality, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam is relatively<br />

free from pollution due to the limited number of industries. Never the<br />

less, proactive approach is necessary in monitoring pollutants such as<br />

those from light industries in the form of used oil and household effluents.<br />

With regard to the supply of clean piped water, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam<br />

has scored highly, where clean water is distributed to nearly 100 percent<br />

of the population.<br />

The government, on its part, has persistently embarked on efforts to<br />

ensure environmental awareness among the public. The establishment<br />

of the Department of Environment, Parks and Recreation in May 2002 is<br />

a commitment towards environmental concern. This department has<br />

developed strategies to maintain and to ensure appropriate and positive<br />

environment to enhance the quality of life. (BOX 3)


P AGE 28<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

THE LONG TERM OBJECTIVES OF BRUNEI DARUSSALAM’S DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF 1986-<br />

2005: What has been the level of achievement in enhancing the quality of life?<br />

CONCLUSION<br />

In general, it could be concluded that from the perspective of the quality<br />

of life, <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam’s achievements in enhancing it is at par if not<br />

better than those attained by some developed countries. All those indicators<br />

that have been discussed above are only a few of the available<br />

indicators to describe the quality of life of <strong>Brunei</strong>ans. Also, those are<br />

only general indicators and there are many others that are more specific<br />

and able to deepen our knowledge about the quality of life.<br />

In the past, the government played instrumental roles in enhancing the<br />

quality of life of the people. This role will undoubtedly be necessary in<br />

the future. However, efforts must be stepped-up to ensure a larger and<br />

active participation of individuals and the private sector in this direction.<br />

Policies that can differentiate between those who really deserve<br />

government’s help, in education and health, for example, need to be<br />

formulated. Policies that help minimize the burden of the government<br />

are important, but so are those that support the growth and development<br />

of the private sector.<br />

While some indicators of the quality of life of <strong>Brunei</strong>ans show some degree<br />

of accomplishment, others are less persuasive. We noted that<br />

<strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam has been successful in improving some social aspects<br />

of development but the economic element remained to be desired.<br />

Specifically, the GDP per Capita has been declining since the middle of<br />

the eighties. Furthermore, the bulk of it arises out of the oil and gas sector.<br />

In other words, income from the non-oil private sector has been less<br />

significant compared with that derived from the oil and gas sector. Inadvertently,<br />

this feature has implicated some segment of the population in<br />

a negative way. The number of unemployed locals has been growing<br />

which give rise to some negative social issues.<br />

Therefore, it is in the best interest of the nation that future development<br />

planning should focus on enhancing economic growth which brings<br />

along with it job opportunities and eventually improvement in the quality<br />

of life of the masses. While the role of the private sector is vital to<br />

economic growth, the role of the government in the overall socioeconomic<br />

development is equally important. Development planning for<br />

the next 20-30 years should include to augment government’s efficiency<br />

in its role to speedily enhance the quality of education at all levels via<br />

human resources development, research and development, IT and science<br />

and technology development; to efficiently facilitate ownership of<br />

housing; to provide proficiently health and medical facilities; to ensure<br />

sound environmental safety and to provide resourcefully state-of-the-art<br />

physical infrastructure. Efficiency and timely provision of all these will<br />

certainly contribute immensely to development and nation-building as a<br />

whole.


V OLUME 3, ISSUE 2 P AGE 29<br />

Miscellaneous<br />

LIST OF JPKE PUBLICATIONS AVAILABLE FOR PURCHASE<br />

No. List BND<br />

1. <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam Statistical Yearbook 82 / 83, 83/84 7.00<br />

2. <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam Statistical Yearbook 2000 / 2001, 2002 8.00<br />

3. <strong>Brunei</strong> Statistics of External Trade 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 2001, 2002 20.00<br />

4. Vital Statistics 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 7.00<br />

5. 6th and 7th National Development Plan 1991-1995 30.00<br />

6. Seventh National Development Plan 1996-2000 15.00<br />

7. Rancangan Kemajuan Negara ke 7 1996-2000 15.00<br />

8. Rancangan Kemajuan Negara ke 4 1980-1984 7.00<br />

9. Summary Tables of the <strong>Brunei</strong> Population Census 1991 20.00<br />

10. Report on the 1991 Population Census 20.00<br />

11. Report on the 1991 Housing Census 20.00<br />

12. Report on the Labour Force Survey 1995 10.00<br />

13. Demographic Situation & Population Projection 1991 – 2011 10.00<br />

14. PERJALANAN NBD memasuki ALAF BARU (Kulit Nipis) 25.00<br />

15. PERJALANAN NBD memasuki ALAF BARU (Kulit Tebal) 40.00<br />

16. The JOURNEY <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam into the next Millennium (Hard Cover) 40.00<br />

17. Preliminary Report of the Population and Housing Census 2001 2.50<br />

18. Consumer Price Index for Negara <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam Base 1990 = 100 7.00<br />

19. Preliminary Report of the 2002 <strong>Economic</strong> Census 2.50<br />

JPKE HOTLINE<br />

• JPKE has dedicated a hotline for the public to make any inquiries, complaints, and comments, regarding<br />

prices, sales and promotion activities.<br />

• The hotline is 2230223 is located at Level 3 (West Wing) Department of Implementation and Monitoring,<br />

JPKE, Jalan Ong Sum Ping, Bandar Seri Begawan, BA1311. The hotline operates during office hours.<br />

• With this initiative, it is hoped that JPKE can provide and maintain quality assurance services to the public.<br />

The Editors Welcome any comments and suggestions from readers through:-<br />

THE EDITOR<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN (BEB)<br />

JPKE (DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT)<br />

PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE<br />

BLOCK 2A<br />

JALAN ONG SUM PING<br />

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN, BA1311<br />

All rights reserved. Copyright of the Government of His Majesty The Sultan and Yang Di Pertuan<br />

of <strong>Brunei</strong> Darussalam. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any material form or by<br />

any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or in any information<br />

storage or retrieval system without prior permission from the Government, except for permitted<br />

fair dealing under Copyright Order 2000.<br />

© 2002


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

Supplementary Copy<br />

Volume 3, <strong>Issue</strong> 2<br />

Date : 09/2004<br />

THE EDITOR<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN (BEB)<br />

JPKE (DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT)<br />

PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE<br />

Approved Price Certificate <strong>Issue</strong>d During the Second Quarter 2004<br />

COMPANIES<br />

TYPES /<br />

CERTIFICATE SR PRICES<br />

ACCESSORIES<br />

CAR MODELS<br />

REFERENCE (BND)<br />

GHK<br />

MITSUBISHI AIRTREK TURBO 4WD 07/04/2004 47,750.00<br />

MOTORS 2.0 A/T JPKE/PC/50/4<br />

MITSUBISHI GRANDIS 2.4 A/T 06/05/2004 45,350.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/4<br />

MITSUBISHI MAGNA VR A/T 08/05/2004 44,750.00<br />

F38ATYGERJ<br />

JPKE/PC/50/4<br />

MITSUBISHI L200 2.8 DOUBLE CAB TURBO 08/05/2004 43,600.00<br />

4WD 4A/T (K77TGJERXFRU)<br />

JPKE/PC/50/4<br />

CHEVROLET OPTRA 1.6 M/T 27/05/2004 19,950.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/4<br />

MITSUBISHI OUTLANDER 2.4 A/T 27/05/2004 39,400.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/4<br />

MITSUBISHI AIRTREK 2WD A/T 02/06/2004 35,050.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/4<br />

SETIA<br />

HYUNDAI ACCENT 5 DRS 1.5 GL A/T 26/05/2004 17,750.00<br />

MOTORS<br />

JPKE/PC/50/03PT II<br />

QAF AUTO BMW 318 I TOURING 5DRS SALOON 15/05/2004 79,850.00<br />

(MOEL 2003-PETROL)<br />

JPKE/PC/50/14<br />

BMW 325 CI CABRIOLET 2DRS SALOON 15/05/2004 88,550.00<br />

JATI<br />

TRANSPORT<br />

(MODEL 2003- PETROL)<br />

JPKE/PC/50/14<br />

BMW 520 I A/T 27/05/2004 92,550.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/14<br />

BMW 525 I AUTO 4DRS (MODEL 2003) 03/06/2004 106,850.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/14<br />

BMW 530 I AUTO 4DRS ( MODEL 3003) 03/06/2004 126,950.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/14<br />

MERCEDES-BENZ S 280 27/05/2004 156,750.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/13<br />

MERCEDES-BENZ E320 27/05/2004 141,550.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/13<br />

MERCEDES-BENZ E 200 K 27/05/2004 100,900.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/13<br />

MERCEDES-BENZ S350L 27/05/2004 170,400.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/13<br />

MERCEDES-BENZ E 240 17/06/2004 115,500.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/13<br />

SOME ON THE ROAD (OTR) PRICES DO NOT INCLUDE OPTIONAL ACCESSORIES AS<br />

LISTED. PLEASE CARE TO CHECK PRICE CERTIFICATES<br />

SR.:- Show Room<br />

Inside this issue:<br />

GHK Motors 1<br />

Setia Motors 1<br />

QAF Auto 1<br />

Jati Transport 1<br />

Boustead 2<br />

Grand Motors 2<br />

Happy Motoring 2<br />

Premier Automobiles 2<br />

TCY Motors 2<br />

United Motors 2<br />

Lau Motor Sdn Bhd 3<br />

Maju Motors 3<br />

Phone: +673-2-233344<br />

Fax: +673-2-230226<br />

Email: info@jpke.gov.bn


P AGE 2<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

Approved Price Certificate <strong>Issue</strong>d During the Second Quarter 2004<br />

COMPANIES<br />

BOUSTEAD<br />

TYPES /<br />

CERTIFICATE<br />

ACCESSORIES<br />

CAR MODELS<br />

REFERENCE<br />

NISSAN PATROL GRX S/WAGON A/T 07/04/2004<br />

SPECIAL VERSION (TWSSRHAY61URAC-C<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

SUZUKI LIANA 1.6 H/BACK 24/04/2004<br />

5M/T<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

SUZUKI LIANA 1.6 H/BACK 24/04/2004<br />

4A/T<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

KIA PICANTO 1.1L EX 24/04/2004<br />

M./T<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

NISSAN X-TRAIL COMFORT 4A/T 22/05/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

NISSAN TERRANO SE 7 SEATER DIESEL A/T 25/05/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

NISSAN TERRANO SLX 7 SEATER DIESEL M/T 25/05/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

SUZUKI GRAND VITARA 1.6 3DRS A/T 25/05/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

SUZUKI GRAND VITARA 1.6 3DRS MA/T 25/05/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

SUZUKI GRAND VITARA 1.6 5DRS A/T 25/05/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

SUZUKI IGNIS SPORT 1.5 3DRS H/B M/T 25/05/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/29/13PT VII<br />

SR PRICES<br />

(BND)<br />

61,950.00<br />

23,250.00<br />

24,350.00<br />

15,800.00<br />

35,200.00<br />

57,250.00<br />

48,300.00<br />

30,200.00<br />

27,950.00<br />

29,900.00<br />

20,300.00<br />

GRAND MOTORS<br />

KIA PICANTO 1.1L EX M/T 24/04/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/50/15<br />

15,800.00<br />

KIA PICANTO 1.1L EX A/T 10/05/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/50/15<br />

17,350.00<br />

MAZDA F/L MX-5 1.8L 2DRS CONVERTIBLE 05/05/2004<br />

DOHC 6-SPEED M/T ND61 AAC<br />

JPKE/PC/50/15<br />

42,650.00<br />

HAPPY MOTORING HONDA ODYSSEY 2.4 EXV 07/06/2004 47,500.00<br />

WAGON A/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/8<br />

PREMIER<br />

AUTOMOES<br />

FORD FOCUS 4DRS 1.6 COMFORT ST3 08/05/2004 21,300.00<br />

M/T GASOLINE<br />

JPKE/PC/50/18<br />

FORD ESCAPE 2.3 LITRE XLS A/T 4WD 28/06/2004 42,250.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/18<br />

TCY MOTORS SSANGYONG REXTON RX 270 A/T 24/04/2004 47,900.00<br />

DIESEL<br />

JPKE/PC/50/2<br />

SSANGYONG REXTON RX 290 M/T 04/05/2004 35,900.00<br />

DIESEL<br />

JPKE/PC/50/2<br />

AUDI TT3.2 QUATTRO DSG A/T 12/06/2004 95,750.00<br />

8N30BL<br />

JPKE/PC/50/2<br />

AUDI S4 TIP A/T 12/06/2004 147,250.00<br />

8E2S4L<br />

JPKE/PC/50/2<br />

UNITED MOTORS VOLVO XC 90 T6 SUV 4WD A/T 2.9 cc 14/04/2004 102,850.00<br />

JPKE/PC/50/7<br />

SOME ON THE ROAD (OTR) PRICES DO NOT INCLUDE OPTIONAL ACCESSORIES AS LISTED. PLEASE CARE TO<br />

CHECK PRICE CERTIFICATES<br />

SR.:- Show Room


BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

P AGE 3<br />

Approved Price Certificate <strong>Issue</strong>d During the Second Quarter 2004<br />

COMPANIES<br />

TYPES /<br />

CAR MODELS<br />

ACCESSORIES<br />

CERTIFICATE<br />

REFERENCE<br />

SR PRICES<br />

(BND)<br />

LAU MOTOR<br />

SDN BHD<br />

SUBARU IMPREZA 4D 2.0 GX AWD 05/05/2004 33,300.00<br />

5M/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/10<br />

SUBARU IMPREZA 4D 2.0 STI AWD 05/05/2004 66,650.00<br />

6M/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/10<br />

SUBARU IFORESTER SW 2.5 AWD 05/05/2004 46,100.00<br />

XS 4A/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/10<br />

SUBARU LEGACY 4D AWD 2.0 I 05/05/2004 42,600.00<br />

4A/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/10<br />

SUBARU LEGACY 4D AWD 2.0 GT 05/05/2004 60,850.00<br />

5A/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/10<br />

SUBARU LEGACY SW AWD 2.0 I 05/05/2004 45,650.00<br />

4A/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/10<br />

SUBARU LEGACY SW AWD 2.0 GT 05/05/2004 67,800.00<br />

SPEC B 5A/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/10<br />

SUBARU OUTBACK AWD 2.5 I 05/05/2004 54,100.00<br />

A/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/10<br />

SUBARU OUTBACK AWD 2.5 I 05/05/2004 49,550.00<br />

LUXURY A/T<br />

JPKE/PC/50/10<br />

MAJU MOTORS VOLKSWAGEN POLO 1.4 A/T 2DRS 05/04/2004 28,900.00<br />

HATCH BACK<br />

JPKE/PC/50/16<br />

VOLKSWAGEN POLO 1.4 A/T 4DRS 05/04/2004<br />

32,850.00<br />

HATCH BACK<br />

JPKE/PC/50/16<br />

VOLKSWAGEN POLO 1.4 M/T 2DRS 05/04/2004 31,900.00<br />

HATCH BACK<br />

JPKE/PC/50/16<br />

VOLKSWAGEN POLO 1.4 M/T 4DRS 05/04/2004<br />

29,800.00<br />

HATCH BACK<br />

RENAULT KANGOO 1.9 M/T 5DRS<br />

HATCHBACK<br />

DIESEL<br />

RENAULT VELSATIS 3.5 A/T 5DRS<br />

HATCHBACK<br />

PETROL<br />

RENAULT MEGANE 1.6 A/T 4DRS SEDAN<br />

PETROL<br />

RENAULT MEGANE 1.4 M/T 4DRS SEDAN<br />

PETROL<br />

RENAULT MEGANE II SPORT HATCH 1.6 A/T<br />

3DRS PETROL<br />

JPKE/PC/50/16<br />

13/04/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/50/16<br />

13/04/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/50/16<br />

13/04/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/50/16<br />

13/04/2004<br />

JPKE/PC/50/16<br />

11/05/2004<br />

26,500.00<br />

69,000.00<br />

31,600.00<br />

27,600.00<br />

32,850.00<br />

SOME ON THE ROAD (OTR) PRICES DO NOT INCLUDE OPTIONAL ACCESSORIES AS LISTED. PLEASE CARE TO<br />

CHECK PRICE CERTIFICATES<br />

SR.:- Show Room


P AGE 4<br />

BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN<br />

Notes

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