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<strong>Information</strong> <strong>asymmetry</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> <strong>with</strong><br />
short-horizon investors <br />
Qi Chen Zeqiong Huang Yun Zhang<br />
April 21, 2011<br />
Chen (qc2@duke.edu) <strong>and</strong> Huang (zh12@duke.edu) are from the Fuqua School of Business at Duke<br />
University. Zhang (yunzhang@gwu.edu) is from George Washington University School of Business. We<br />
bene…t from discussions <strong>with</strong> Hengjie Ai, Katherine Schipper, Vish Viswanathan, <strong>and</strong> workshop participants<br />
at Duke.<br />
1
<strong>Information</strong> <strong>asymmetry</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> <strong>with</strong><br />
short-horizon investors<br />
Abstract<br />
The paper analyzes the e¤ect of information <strong>asymmetry</strong> among investors on <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
in a two-period trading model of perfect competition <strong>with</strong> short-horizon investors,<br />
where <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> refers to the amount of private information revealed by <strong>price</strong><br />
in equilibrium. The main …nding is that information <strong>asymmetry</strong> exacerbates the loss of<br />
<strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> due to short-horizon. Several important implications of this …nding<br />
are analyzed. We show that both short-horizon <strong>and</strong> information <strong>asymmetry</strong> are necessary<br />
conditions for public information to a¤ect <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>. Public information improves<br />
<strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> only when it is of high quality (precision). When the quality<br />
of public information is low, multiple equilibria can arise <strong>and</strong> increasing public information<br />
could reduce <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>.
1 Introduction<br />
The main purpose of this paper is to identify a mechanism under which information <strong>asymmetry</strong><br />
a¤ects <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> in stock markets <strong>with</strong> perfect competition. In doing so,<br />
we seek to underst<strong>and</strong> whether <strong>and</strong> how public information a¤ects the overall informational<br />
e¢ ciency of stock <strong>price</strong>s via its e¤ect on information <strong>asymmetry</strong>. A unique aspect of stock<br />
<strong>price</strong> is its ability to aggregate <strong>and</strong> reveal private information in the stock market (Grossman<br />
(1976)). It does so via the trading process when traders condition their trades on the information<br />
available to them (e.g., Grossman <strong>and</strong> Stiglitz (1980), Hellwig (1980), Glosten <strong>and</strong><br />
Milgrom (1985), Kyle (1985)). Price <strong>informativeness</strong>, which refers to the amount of private<br />
information revealed by <strong>price</strong> that is otherwise not available to the general public, directly<br />
contributes to the overall stock market e¢ ciency. 1<br />
More <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> reduces investors’uncertainty<br />
about …rms’fundamental <strong>and</strong> the risk premium they require to hold the<br />
stocks, which can in turn lower …rms’costs of capital. 2<br />
additional information to make better investment decisions. 3<br />
It can provide corporate managers<br />
That <strong>price</strong>s contain valuable<br />
private information also underlies proposals for policy makers <strong>and</strong> regulators to base their<br />
action on <strong>price</strong>s. 4<br />
While it is <strong>with</strong>out controversy that more private information increases <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>,<br />
the e¤ect of distribution of private information among investors (i.e., information<br />
1 The extent that <strong>price</strong> properly incorporates public information will also contribute to the overall market<br />
e¢ ciency. We focus on <strong>price</strong>’s ability to reveal private information because such information would not<br />
otherwise be available to the economy <strong>with</strong>out <strong>price</strong>. In additional analysis, we also examine the overall<br />
<strong>price</strong> e¢ ciency, i.e., the total amount of information (private <strong>and</strong> public) that <strong>price</strong> impounds.<br />
2 For example, Easley <strong>and</strong> O’Hara (2004), <strong>and</strong> Lambert, Leuz <strong>and</strong> Verrecchia (2009).<br />
3 See, e.g., Holmstrom <strong>and</strong> Tirole (1993), Dow <strong>and</strong> Gorton (1997), Subranmania <strong>and</strong> Titman (1999),<br />
Goldstein <strong>and</strong> Gumbel (2008), Dow, Goldstein <strong>and</strong> Gumbel (2011), for theoretical models. See, e.g., Luo<br />
(2005), Chen, Goldstein <strong>and</strong> Jiang (2007) for empirical evidence.<br />
4 See Bond, Goldstein <strong>and</strong> Prescott (2010), <strong>and</strong> Bond <strong>and</strong> Goldstein (2011) for discussions on related<br />
literature.<br />
1
<strong>asymmetry</strong>), <strong>and</strong> the related question of the role of public information, is less clearcut. On<br />
the one h<strong>and</strong>, advocates for more public information disclosures argue that more public information<br />
levels the playing …eld <strong>and</strong> improves <strong>price</strong> e¢ ciency. The implicit assumption is<br />
that information <strong>asymmetry</strong> is deterimental. On the other h<strong>and</strong>, theoretical studies show<br />
that in stock markets <strong>with</strong> perfect competition, <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> depends only on the<br />
average precision of investors’private information: neither information <strong>asymmetry</strong> or public<br />
information a¤ects the equilibrium <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> (see, e.g., Verrecchia (1982)). This<br />
point was recently highlighted in the context of multiple assets by Easley <strong>and</strong> O’Hara (2004)<br />
<strong>and</strong> Lambert, Leuz <strong>and</strong> Verrecchia (2009). Lambert, et al. (2009) further conjecture that<br />
for information <strong>asymmetry</strong> to matter, researchers have to look into trading models of imperfect<br />
competition (e.g., Kyle (1985), Glosten <strong>and</strong> Milgrom (1985), Kyle (1989), Diamond<br />
<strong>and</strong> Verrecchia (1991)). 5<br />
A key assumption for the "information <strong>asymmetry</strong> irrelevance" result is that investors’<br />
investment horizon is the same as the …rm’s operating horizon, that is, investors hold stocks<br />
until the …nal liquidation dates.<br />
This assumption can be restrictive to the extent that<br />
investors trade for various reasons <strong>and</strong> often sell stocks before the …nal payo¤ dates, either<br />
because they are subject to exogenous liquidity needs, or they are simply outlived by the<br />
…rm. In this paper we relax this assumption <strong>and</strong> study the impact of information <strong>asymmetry</strong><br />
when equilibrium <strong>price</strong>s are determined by investors <strong>with</strong> short investment horizons.<br />
To capture the main gist of short horizon while maintaining tractability, we extend the<br />
two-period version of Allen, Morris <strong>and</strong> Shin (2006) to allow information <strong>asymmetry</strong> among<br />
investors. 6 In the model there are two overlapping generations of risk-averse investors. Each<br />
5 The e¤ect of information <strong>asymmetry</strong> on <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> is also at the center of the debate over<br />
insider trading. Proponents for insider trading argue that it allows <strong>price</strong> to be more informative; whereas<br />
opponents argue that it reduces <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> by reducing the market liquidity. See Easterbrook<br />
<strong>and</strong> Fischel (1991). Models of perfect competition (such as the one we study) assume that traders are <strong>price</strong><br />
takers <strong>and</strong> therefore liquidity is not a concern.<br />
6 Similar models have been studied in Grundy <strong>and</strong> McNichols (1999) <strong>and</strong> Brown <strong>and</strong> Jennings (1991), <strong>and</strong><br />
2
investor observes his own private information, but the quality (precision) of their private<br />
information di¤ers. Investors from the …rst generation trade stocks of a risky security at the<br />
beginning of the …rst period but liquidate their holdings for consumption goods in the second<br />
period, before the stock’s fundamental value is realized. As a result, the consumption value of<br />
their stock holdings depends on the stock <strong>price</strong> in the second period, which is determined by<br />
the willingness of the second generation investors to pay for the stock. The second generation<br />
investors live to receive the stock’s terminal value for consumption. As such, they behave<br />
similar to investors <strong>with</strong> long investment horizon; whereas the …rst generation investors are<br />
considered short-horizon investors.<br />
Our primary interest is in how information <strong>asymmetry</strong> a¤ect the …rst period’s <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
when investors have short horizons. Our main …nding is that information <strong>asymmetry</strong><br />
unambiguously lowers <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>; <strong>and</strong> may give rise to multiple equilibria<br />
in situations where the equilibrium is otherwise unique <strong>with</strong>out information <strong>asymmetry</strong>. The<br />
intuition starts from the fact that short-horizon investors face the uncertainty of the next period<br />
<strong>price</strong>, as opposed to the uncertainty of the fundamental value of the stock. This implies<br />
that their trades are guided by their expectations of the future <strong>price</strong>, not of the fundamental.<br />
Consequently, their tradings are less sensitive to their private information than long-horizon<br />
investors. Lower sensitivity in turn reduces <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>, as shown in Allen, Morris<br />
<strong>and</strong> Shin (2006) <strong>and</strong> Gao (2008). The new insight from our analysis is that while the sensitivity<br />
is lowered uniformly when investors have identical private information precision, it is<br />
no longer the case <strong>with</strong> information <strong>asymmetry</strong>. Whereas less informed investors (those <strong>with</strong><br />
less precise private information) do not reduce their sensitivities as much (because their sensitivities<br />
are not high to begin <strong>with</strong>), the reduction is more pronounced among more informed<br />
investors (those <strong>with</strong> more precise private information). Because <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> depends<br />
on the average of individual sensitivities, it follows from Jensen’s inequality that the<br />
recently in Gao (2008). None of these papers allow investors to have di¤erential precisions in their private<br />
information.<br />
3
average of individual sensitivities is lower than the sensitivity of the average investor. This<br />
leads to an aggregation loss in <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>, above <strong>and</strong> beyond the loss induced by<br />
short horizon. Furthermore, more severe the information <strong>asymmetry</strong> is (as captured by a<br />
mean-preserving spread of the distribution of the precision levels across investors), the larger<br />
the aggregation loss, <strong>and</strong> the lower the equilibrium <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>.<br />
The intuition for multiple equilibria is subtle <strong>and</strong> relates directly to the aggregation<br />
loss mechanism discussed above. Since <strong>price</strong> is publicly observable, traders always use the<br />
information they inferred from <strong>price</strong> in determining their trades. Speci…cally, if investors<br />
conjecture equilibrium <strong>price</strong> to be more informative, they would rely less on their private<br />
information <strong>and</strong> more on <strong>price</strong>. In st<strong>and</strong>ard models <strong>with</strong> no information <strong>asymmetry</strong>, this<br />
would not constitute an equilibrium as lower sensitivity to private information would result in<br />
lower equilibrium <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>, contradicting investors’initial conjecture. However,<br />
in our model, more reliance on <strong>price</strong> would reduce the aggregation loss due to information<br />
<strong>asymmetry</strong>. This e¤ect may be strong enough to result in higher <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
in equilibrium, despite the fact that each individual trader has relied less on her private<br />
information.<br />
With respect to public information, we …nd that both information <strong>asymmetry</strong> <strong>and</strong> short<br />
horizon are necessary conditions for public information to a¤ect <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>. 7 Public<br />
information a¤ects <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> via the aggregation loss channel uniquely identi…ed<br />
when both information <strong>asymmetry</strong> <strong>and</strong> short horizon are present. We show that<br />
whenever the equilibrium is unique, more public information can improve <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
by reducing the aggregation loss. The e¤ect is ambiguous when multiple equilibria<br />
exist. Depending on the starting equilibrium, more public information can either increase<br />
7 With only short-horizon but no information <strong>asymmetry</strong>, public information does not a¤ect <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
(see, Allen, Morris <strong>and</strong> Shin (2006) <strong>and</strong> Gao (2008)). Neither does it a¤ect <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
<strong>with</strong> only information <strong>asymmetry</strong> but no short-horizon (see, Verrecchia (1982), Easley <strong>and</strong> O’Hara (2004),<br />
Lambert, et al. (2009)).<br />
4
or decrease <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>.<br />
A su¢ cient condition for public information to improve <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> is that the<br />
quality (precision) of public information is high enough. To see the intuition, note that<br />
when public information is very precise, there is little uncertainty about the fundamental,<br />
<strong>and</strong> the future <strong>price</strong> does not deviate much from the fundamental. Consequently, shorthorizon<br />
investors’trading behavior is similar to that of the long-horizon investors, that is,<br />
more public information has the similar e¤ect as lengthening investors’investment horizon.<br />
Since <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> is higher when long-horizon investors than when short-horizon<br />
investors, more public information increases <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> in this case.<br />
To further relate to prior literature, we analyze the relation between information <strong>asymmetry</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> the <strong>price</strong> discount in the …rst period, where the discount is the di¤erence between<br />
the equilibrium <strong>price</strong> <strong>and</strong> the expected value of the fundamental. In the context of multiple<br />
assets, Easley <strong>and</strong> O’Hara (2004) <strong>and</strong> Lambert, et al. (2009) interpret the …rm-speci…c discount<br />
as the …rm’s cost of capital. To the extent that the risky asset in our model represents<br />
the market portfolio, or a single …rm whose risk cannot be diversi…ed away, the discount<br />
can be viewed as the expected return for the risky asset relative to the risk-free bond. We<br />
…nd that holding the average information precision in the economy constant, the discount<br />
is higher <strong>with</strong> information <strong>asymmetry</strong> than <strong>with</strong>out. Further, the marginal (bene…cial) effect<br />
of public information in reducing the discount is higher when the degree of information<br />
<strong>asymmetry</strong> is higher.<br />
Our paper contributes to the literature by identifying a mechanism in which information<br />
<strong>asymmetry</strong> diminishes <strong>price</strong>’s e¤ectiveness in aggregating <strong>and</strong> revealing private information.<br />
In addition to providing a theoretical support for the claim that information <strong>asymmetry</strong> is<br />
deterimental to market e¢ ciency, even when the market is perfectly liquid, it also o¤ers a<br />
channel for public information to a¤ect market e¢ ciency that has not been studied in the<br />
prior literature. In most prior literature, public information improves market e¢ ciency (how<br />
close <strong>price</strong> is to fundamental) by providing more information about the fundamentals. In<br />
5
our setting, public information can also move <strong>price</strong> closer to the fundamental by improving<br />
<strong>price</strong>’s e¢ ciency in aggregating <strong>and</strong> revealing private information. It does so by a¤ecting<br />
the degree of the aggregation loss discussed earlier. As such, our paper o¤ers a theoretical<br />
framework for the claim that more public disclosure helps improve market e¢ ciency by<br />
leveling the playing …eld. 8 9<br />
Our paper relates to the accounting literature on the role of public information <strong>and</strong> of<br />
information <strong>asymmetry</strong>. These issues are central to accounting research because accounting<br />
information is a major source of public information <strong>and</strong> plays an important role in reducing<br />
information <strong>asymmetry</strong> among investors. Our paper is closely related <strong>and</strong> indeed extends<br />
Gao (2008) who analyzes a similar model <strong>with</strong> short horizon investors but <strong>with</strong>out heterogeneous<br />
information quality among investors. Gao (2008) analyzes the role of public information<br />
on <strong>price</strong> e¢ ciency, which captures the amount of all information (public <strong>and</strong> private)<br />
that <strong>price</strong> impounds. Gao (2008) quanti…es <strong>price</strong> e¢ ciency by how close <strong>price</strong> is to the fundamental.<br />
Since <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> measures how much private information impounded<br />
in <strong>price</strong>, ceteris paribus, more <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> will increase <strong>price</strong> e¢ ciency, although<br />
the reverse is not true. Indeed in Gao (2008) public information improves <strong>price</strong> e¢ ciency<br />
<strong>with</strong>out improving the <strong>informativeness</strong> of <strong>price</strong>. We extend Gao (2008) to allow information<br />
<strong>asymmetry</strong> <strong>and</strong> show that public information also plays a role in <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>.<br />
Our study also sheds light on the recent debate on the e¤ect of information <strong>asymmetry</strong> on<br />
…rms’costs of capital (e.g., Easley <strong>and</strong> O’Hara (2004), Lambert, et al. (2007, 2009)). These<br />
8 Easley <strong>and</strong> O’hara (2004) <strong>and</strong> Lambert et al. (2007, 2009) show that more public information can decrease<br />
…rms’costs of capital, by providing more information to investors. In these models, public information<br />
helps <strong>price</strong> become closer to the fundamental but not more informative.<br />
9 Our model is a version of the dynamic noisy rational expectations model. A large literature has used<br />
this model to analyze various issues, including <strong>price</strong> volatility, trading volume, <strong>and</strong> technical analysis, among<br />
others. We refer the readers to Brunnermeier (2001) for an excellent <strong>and</strong> comprehensive survey. To our<br />
best knowledge, our paper is the …rst to analyze the impact of heterogenous information precision among<br />
investors on <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>.<br />
6
studies analyze a static trading model, where both public <strong>and</strong> private information lower<br />
…rms’costs of capital by increasing the average precision of all information in the economy.<br />
Their analyses suggest that the distribution of information (between public <strong>and</strong> private, or<br />
among private) does not matter as long as the average precision of the economy is controlled<br />
for. In contrast, our model shows that the distributions matter, <strong>and</strong> that public information<br />
can take on the addition role by reducing the aggregation loss due to information <strong>asymmetry</strong><br />
among investors. 10<br />
In what follows, we …rst set up the model in Section 2 <strong>and</strong> then provide the model solution<br />
in Section 3 before Section 4 concludes.<br />
2 Model set-up<br />
We study a two-period noisy rational expectation trading model <strong>with</strong> short-horizon investors<br />
<strong>and</strong> independent supply shocks (e.g., Allen, Morris <strong>and</strong> Shin (2006) <strong>and</strong> Gao (2008)). In<br />
each period (denoted by t = 1 or 2), a continuum of investors <strong>with</strong> a unit measure (indexed<br />
by i 2 [0; 1]) choose their investments through trading between a risky asset <strong>and</strong> a riskless<br />
asset (cash) to maximize their expected utility. The rate of return for cash is normalized<br />
to 1, <strong>with</strong>out loss of generality. The liquidation value of the risky asset, , is r<strong>and</strong>om,<br />
has a di¤use prior, <strong>and</strong> will be realized at the end of the second period. Investors do not<br />
observe the average per capita supply of the risky asset (denoted as s t ) but underst<strong>and</strong> that<br />
<br />
s t N<br />
s; 1 <strong>and</strong> is assumed to be independent across periods, <strong>with</strong> s > 0:<br />
t<br />
At the beginning of period 1 before trading occurs, a public information signal z is<br />
10 The model in the paper is based on the dynamic noisy rational expectations model. A large literature<br />
has used this type of model to analyze various issues, including <strong>price</strong> volatility, trading volume, <strong>and</strong> technical<br />
analysis, among others. We refer the readers to Brunnermeier (2001) for an excellent <strong>and</strong> comprehensive<br />
survey. To our best knowledge, our paper is the …rst to analyze the impact of heterogenous information<br />
precision among investors on <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>.<br />
7
available to all investors, including period 2 investors after they are born:<br />
<br />
z = + " z where " z N 0; 1 <br />
.<br />
<br />
Each investor also observes a private signal x ti prior to trading:<br />
<br />
1<br />
x ti = + " it where " ti N 0; :<br />
it<br />
We assume the p.d.f.<br />
of i across investors in each period is g t () (<strong>with</strong> the associated<br />
c.d.f. G t ()). We further assume " it is i.i.d. across periods, implying that we can drop the<br />
subscript of t from the g (<strong>and</strong> G) function from now on. This is <strong>with</strong>out of loss of generality:<br />
as will be shown shortly, the distribution of i among investors in the second period does<br />
not matter for our main results.<br />
Each investor only lives for one period <strong>and</strong> has a constant absolute risk aversion (CARA)<br />
<br />
c<br />
utility function of U (c) = exp<br />
t<br />
where t is the risk tolerance parameter for period<br />
t investors. The …rst generation of investors transfer their risky asset holdings to the next<br />
generation through trading at the beginning of period 2. With CARA utility functions <strong>and</strong><br />
normal distributions, the st<strong>and</strong>ard result shows that the optimal dem<strong>and</strong> for the risky asset<br />
by a …rst generation investor i is<br />
Similarly, the dem<strong>and</strong> by a second generation investor is<br />
D 1i = 1<br />
E 1i (p 2 ) p 1<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) : (1)<br />
D 2i = 2<br />
E 2i () p 2<br />
V ar 2i () : (2)<br />
In both expressions, the subscripts denote that all expectations are taken <strong>with</strong> respect to the<br />
information set ti of investor i in the t th generation. Speci…cally, 1i fz; p 1 ; x 1i g where p 1<br />
is the equilibrium <strong>price</strong> of the risky asset from the …rst round of trading, <strong>and</strong> x 1i is investor<br />
i’s private information signal. Similarly, 2i fz; p 1 ; p 2 ; x 2i g. Note that because investors<br />
are short lived, x 1i is not an element of 2i . However, the second generation investors will<br />
8
glean some information about the x 1i s from p 1 . Short-horizion is also re‡ected in the fact<br />
that the payo¤ for the second generation investors is the …rm’s liquidation value , whereas<br />
the payo¤ for the …rst generation is the risky asset’s <strong>price</strong> from the second round of trading,<br />
p 2 . The fact that <strong>price</strong>s appear in investors’information set re‡ects the notion that trading<br />
is a information aggregation process <strong>and</strong> investors attempt to infer others’information from<br />
<strong>price</strong>s (Grossman <strong>and</strong> Stiglitz, 1980). In summary,our setup is identical to those in Allen<br />
et. al. (2006) <strong>and</strong> Gao (2008) except that we now allow the precisions of investors’private<br />
information to di¤er. Figure 1 illustrates the timeline of our model.<br />
3 Solution<br />
3.1 Preliminaries: Price <strong>informativeness</strong> in the second period<br />
The solution for the second period equlibrium <strong>price</strong> is fairly st<strong>and</strong>ard <strong>and</strong> the Appendix of<br />
Allen et. al. (2006) provides a detailed account. Here, we only highlight the part that’s<br />
relevant to our analysis. Start by conjecturing a linear equilibrium where period t <strong>price</strong> is<br />
given by 11 p 1 = b 1 z + c 1 d 1 s 1 (3)<br />
<strong>and</strong> p 2 = a 2 p 1 + b 2 z + c 2 d 2 s 2 : (4)<br />
11 p 1 enters into p 2 expression because traders in period 2 will be able to learn useful information from p 1<br />
about . This seems to contradict the empirical notion of a weak form market e¢ ciency where past <strong>price</strong>s<br />
should contain no information about future fundamentals. However, in a st<strong>and</strong>ard REE model, the supply<br />
noise prevents <strong>price</strong>s from fully revealing all private information. That is, past <strong>price</strong>s are not a su¢ cient<br />
statistics for all private information. Because traders are short-lived, the second generation traders do not<br />
observe the actual private signals of the …rst generation investors. They can, however, infer from p 1 these<br />
private signals <strong>and</strong> use it to help them forecast the fundamentals.<br />
9
As in the literature, the <strong>informativeness</strong> of p t <strong>with</strong> respect to can be summarized by<br />
2 ct<br />
t <br />
d t : (5)<br />
t<br />
To elaborate, de…ne<br />
P1 p 1 b 1 z d 1<br />
= s 1 ;<br />
c 1 c 1<br />
(6)<br />
P2 p 2 (a 2 p 1 + b 2 z) d 2<br />
= s 2 :<br />
c 2<br />
c 2<br />
(7)<br />
Since there is a one to one mapping between p t <strong>and</strong> P <br />
t , the information content in p t is<br />
equivalent to that in P <br />
t . As such, since t measures the precision (inverse of the variance)<br />
of the noise term in P <br />
t , we interpret it as period t’s <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>. Note that our<br />
de…nition of <strong>price</strong> informativess excludes the direct e¤ect of the public signal <strong>and</strong> is only<br />
related to how the <strong>price</strong> aggregates investors’private information.<br />
We note here that <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> is closely related to, but distinct from, the<br />
concept of market e¢ ciency.<br />
In empirical studies, market e¢ ciency takes various forms<br />
depending on the degree to which stock <strong>price</strong>s re‡ect value relevant information.<br />
While<br />
there is no consensus on the precise de…nition of market e¢ ciency, in this paper we follow<br />
the tradition in the analytical literature <strong>and</strong> use these terms interchangeably to mean the<br />
amount of all value relevant information embedded in <strong>price</strong>, including both public <strong>and</strong><br />
private information. A typical measure for <strong>price</strong> e¢ ciency is the distance (mean squared<br />
error) between the equilibrium <strong>price</strong>s <strong>and</strong> the fundamentals (e.g., Gao (2008)): more e¢ cient<br />
<strong>price</strong>s are closer to the fundamentals on average. Everything else equal, more informative<br />
<strong>price</strong> improves <strong>price</strong> e¢ ciency while the reverse is not true. This is because <strong>price</strong> can be close<br />
to fundamental from incorporating public information alone <strong>with</strong>out re‡ecting any private<br />
information. In contrast, informative <strong>price</strong>s provide unique information to the public that<br />
is not available from other sources. In other words, if <strong>price</strong> is not informative, the overall<br />
amount of information available to investors would not be reduced <strong>with</strong>out <strong>price</strong>.<br />
10
The equilibrium p t is set such that the aggregate dem<strong>and</strong> for risky assets equals the<br />
aggregate supply, i.e.,<br />
With normal distributions, we obtain<br />
Z<br />
i<br />
D ti dG ( i ) = s t :<br />
E 2i () = z + 1P1 + 2 P2 + i x 2i<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i<br />
V ar 2i () =<br />
1<br />
:<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i<br />
Substituting the two expressions for E 2i () <strong>and</strong> V ar 2i () into (2) <strong>and</strong> imposing the market<br />
clearing condition for period 2, we have<br />
p 2 = k 2<br />
<br />
1<br />
c 1<br />
b 1<br />
2<br />
c 2<br />
b 2<br />
<br />
z +<br />
<br />
1<br />
c 1<br />
2<br />
c 2<br />
a 2<br />
<br />
p 1 + <br />
1<br />
where k 2 <br />
1<br />
+ 1 + 2<br />
1<br />
<strong>and</strong> R <br />
+ i i dG ( i ). Clearly, here measures the average<br />
c 2<br />
precision of all investors.<br />
Matching coe¢ cients in (8) <strong>with</strong> those in (4), It is immediate that<br />
<br />
s 2<br />
2<br />
(8)<br />
2 = 2 2 2 2 : (9)<br />
(9) demonstrates that holding the average of private precisions constant, <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
in period 2 no longer depends on the distribution of private precisions among<br />
investors g 2 ( i ). The intuition is that although investors <strong>with</strong> less precise information trades<br />
less, those <strong>with</strong> more precise information trades more <strong>and</strong> in equilibrium these two e¤ects<br />
exactly o¤set each other. In addition, since (9) doesn’t depend on , public information does<br />
not a¤ect <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> in the second period. That is, while more precise public information<br />
can move the second period <strong>price</strong> closer to the fundamentals through the z term<br />
in (8), it does not a¤ect the extent to which the <strong>price</strong> aggregates investors’private information.<br />
This result may appear counterintuitive at the …rst glance, as one may expect that<br />
since more precise public information induces investors to place less weight on their private<br />
11
information relative to the public signal, the ability of <strong>price</strong> aggregates private information<br />
may decrease. However, this view fails to recognize the fact that <strong>with</strong> more precise public<br />
information investors trade more aggressively. In equilibrium, these two e¤ects again exactly<br />
o¤set each other. We note these results are the same as those from the prior literature <strong>with</strong><br />
one-period model (e.g., Verrecchia (1982), Lambert et. al. (2007)). Thus, our main focus,<br />
as is that of Gao (2008)’s, is on properties of the …rst period equilibrium <strong>price</strong>, 1 , which we<br />
derive next.<br />
3.2 First period equilibrium <strong>price</strong><br />
3.2.1 Three benchmarks<br />
Before we derive a solution to our model <strong>and</strong> study its imiplications, it is useful discuss three<br />
benchmark scenarios in order to hightlight di¤erences between our setting <strong>and</strong> the prior<br />
literature. In the …rst benchmark (short-horizon homogeneous investors), both generations of<br />
investors have the same precision for their private signals (i.e. i = , 8i). This benchmark is<br />
studied in Gao (2008). In the second benchmark (long-horizon heterogeneous investors <strong>with</strong><br />
early maturity), we assume the risky asset’s payo¤ is realized at the end of the …rst period.<br />
Like Gao (2008), we interpret it as representing a long-horizon economy as investors lives<br />
as long as the asset’s life span. Finally, in the third benchmark (long-horizon heterogeneous<br />
investors <strong>with</strong> late maturity), we study a setting similar to Brown <strong>and</strong> Jenning (1989) where<br />
investors <strong>with</strong> (potentially) heterogeneous private precisions live for two periods <strong>and</strong> trade<br />
twice before the risky assets matures at the end of second period. Note that the second <strong>and</strong><br />
third benchmark cases also allow for homogeneous precision investors as a special case. We<br />
summarize our …ndings in the following lemma.<br />
Lemma 1 Let B 1<br />
1 , B 2<br />
1 , <strong>and</strong> B 3<br />
1 denote the <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> of p 1 under Benchmark 1<br />
12
through 3, respectively. Then,<br />
2<br />
B 1<br />
1 = 2 1 2 2<br />
1<br />
2 + < B 2<br />
1 = B 3<br />
1 = 2 1 2 1 ;<br />
where 2 = 2 2 2 2 is the <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> of p 2 .<br />
Proof of Lemma 1 The derivation of B 1<br />
1 <strong>and</strong> B 2<br />
1 are similar to that in Gao (2008), hence<br />
omitted. See the appendix for a derivation of B 3<br />
1 .<br />
Lemma 1 shows that a shorter horizon lowers the <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> in the …rst period,<br />
compared to the two long horizon benchmarks. The intuition lies in the so-called "Beauty<br />
Contest" phenomena, studied in Allen et al. (2006). It is well known that in models <strong>with</strong><br />
perfect competition the expected equilibrium <strong>price</strong> equals to the average investors’expectations<br />
of their …nal payo¤. As such, the period 2 <strong>price</strong> equals a weighted average of the public<br />
signal z <strong>and</strong> in expectation (taken over the r<strong>and</strong>om supply s). To see this, for expositional<br />
ease, suppose for a second generation investor 2i, his assessment of is<br />
E 2i () = wz + (1 w) x 2i .<br />
The average of E 2i () across all second generation investors is thus<br />
E 2i () = wz + (1 w) :<br />
Since <strong>with</strong> a short horizon the …rst generation of investors have to liquidate their positions<br />
in period 2, they are concerned <strong>with</strong> the risky asset’s terminal payo¤ only to the extent it<br />
is re‡ected in the period 2 <strong>price</strong>. Consequently, the period 1 <strong>price</strong> attaches a larger weight<br />
to the public signal than the period 2 <strong>price</strong>, thus magnifying the impact of the public signal<br />
on <strong>price</strong> <strong>and</strong> making it harder to infer from the <strong>price</strong>. Speci…cally, suppose for a …rst<br />
generation investor 1i, his assessment of is<br />
E 1i () = wz + (1 w) x 1i :<br />
13
And his assessment of the second period <strong>price</strong> is<br />
E 1i<br />
E2i () = wz + (1 w) [wz + (1 w) x 1i ]<br />
= 1 (1 w) 2 z + (1 w) 2 x 1i :<br />
The average expectation of the second period <strong>price</strong> is thus<br />
E 1i<br />
E2i () = 1 (1 w) 2 z + (1 w) 2 :<br />
Stated di¤erently, the period 1 <strong>price</strong> will be less informative <strong>with</strong> short-horizon investors<br />
because it aggregates less of investors’private information. Our next lemma sheds on light<br />
how <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> changes <strong>with</strong> the precision of public information for the three<br />
benchmark cases.<br />
Lemma 2 Public information has no e¤ect on <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> in any of the three<br />
benchmarks.<br />
Proof of Lemma 2 Lemma 2 results from a straightforward inspection of B 1<br />
1 , B 2<br />
1 <strong>and</strong><br />
B 3<br />
1 .<br />
That the public information has no e¤ect on <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> follows the same intuition<br />
as that for why the public information does not a¤ect the second period <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
(i.e., 2 ) <strong>and</strong> is discussed earlier. Again, though an increase in public information<br />
signal precision induces investors to impose more weight on the public information, an overall<br />
reduction in uncertainty due to high quality public information increases the investors’<br />
trading intensity.<br />
Public information still increases the overall market e¢ ciency, de…ned in Gao (2008) as<br />
the mean squared error of <strong>price</strong> in predicting the fundamentals. 12<br />
This is intuitive because<br />
12 We use the term "market e¢ ciency" the same way as Gao (2008) in order to stay consistent, even though<br />
the term may mean di¤erent things for others.<br />
14
<strong>price</strong> always incorporates public information as seen from (??). This is also consistent <strong>with</strong><br />
the main message from Lambert et. al. (2007) that it is the average quality of all information<br />
in the economy that matters (in terms of increasing market e¢ ciency), not the distribution<br />
of the information. Thus, public information improves market e¢ ciency only to the extent<br />
that it improves the average quality of all information available to the market. This implies<br />
that as far as policy implications are concerned, there is no justi…cation for spending more<br />
resources in improving public information versus improving private information, as long as<br />
the average information quality across all investors is kept constant. 13<br />
The previous section shows that information <strong>asymmetry</strong> doesn’t a¤ect the second period<br />
<strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> holding the average private information precision constant. Our next<br />
lemma deals <strong>with</strong> the e¤ect of information <strong>asymmetry</strong> on the …rst period <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> <strong>price</strong> discount for benchmark 2 <strong>and</strong> 3, where the …rst period <strong>price</strong> discount is<br />
de…ned as E (<br />
p 1 j).<br />
Lemma 3 i ’s distribution doesn’t a¤ect B 2<br />
1 <strong>and</strong> B 3<br />
1 ; given is held constant.<br />
i ’s distribution doesn’t a¤ect the …rst period <strong>price</strong> discount under Benchmark 2<br />
<strong>and</strong> 3, given is held constant.<br />
Proof of Lemma 3 See appendix.<br />
Lemma 3 shows that our "irrelevance" result for information <strong>asymmetry</strong> in the second<br />
period carries over to the …rst period as long as investors have long horizons. This is consistent<br />
<strong>with</strong> Lambert et al. (2007) assertion that information <strong>asymmetry</strong> does not matter for<br />
13 Public information has a welfare role in that it may help reduce costly private information aquisition,<br />
as shown in Diamond (1985). But it still does not increase the incremental <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> even in<br />
Diamond (1985). This is because in Diamond, there is one common private signal realization. It is called<br />
private because only a subset of investors observe it, if they decide to acquire it at a cost. Therefore, as long<br />
as public information does not make all investors obstain from acquiring private information, it will have<br />
no e¤ect on <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>. If it does prevent all investors from acquire private informatioin, it will<br />
actually decrease <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>.<br />
15
cost of capital in a model of perfect competition. Having established the three benchmark<br />
cases, we now turn to our main setting where short horizon investors di¤er from each other<br />
in their private information precisions.<br />
3.3 Heterogenous precisions of private information <strong>with</strong> short horizon<br />
investors<br />
The …rst period equilibrium can be solved in a similar fashion to the second period equilibrium,<br />
<strong>with</strong> the exception that the …rst period investors care about only to the extent that<br />
it a¤ects the expected second period <strong>price</strong>. Speci…cally, <strong>with</strong> short horizons, each …rst period<br />
investor forms his expectation of the second period <strong>price</strong> based on his own private information,<br />
the public information, the …rst period <strong>price</strong> <strong>and</strong> i ’s distribution. In equilibrium, the<br />
…rst period <strong>price</strong> is such that the aggregate dem<strong>and</strong> exactly equates the aggregate supply of<br />
shares. Proposition 1 characterizes the …rst period <strong>price</strong> informativess <strong>with</strong> heterogeneous<br />
short horizon investors.<br />
Proposition 1 The …rst period equilibrium <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> 1 is (implicitly)<br />
determined by<br />
1 = 1 2 2 1<br />
<br />
2 2<br />
2 + <br />
R<br />
i<br />
r ( i ) dG ( i )<br />
r ! 2<br />
; (10)<br />
where r ( i ) =<br />
i<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i<br />
;<br />
<br />
<br />
where B 1<br />
= 1 2 2 2<br />
2.<br />
1 2 +<br />
1 < B 1<br />
;<br />
More generally, if F ( i ) is a mean-preserving spread of G ( i ) <strong>and</strong> there exists a<br />
unique linear equilibrium under G ( i ),<br />
1 (F ) < 1 (G) :<br />
16
Proof of Proposition 1 (See Appendix).<br />
Lemma 1 shows that <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> is reduced <strong>with</strong> short horizon investors than<br />
<strong>with</strong> long horizon investors.<br />
Proposition 1 further shows that this decrease is more pronounced<br />
when investors’ private information has di¤erential precisions. Furthermore, the<br />
reduction in <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> is larger when the degree of information <strong>asymmetry</strong> is<br />
higher, as measured by a mean-preserving spread of the distribution function for . The<br />
intuition is the following. As before, <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> in our equilibrium depends on<br />
the average sensitivity of individual investors’trades toward changes in the fundamentals.<br />
When all investors have identical private information precisions, their individual sensitivity<br />
(toward their private information) is also identical <strong>and</strong> thus equals the average (toward<br />
fundamentals). In contrast, <strong>with</strong> heterogeneous investors, an individual trader’s sensitivity<br />
is concave in his private information precision. As such, the average of sensitivities acoss<br />
all investors is always lower than the sensitivity of the average by Jensen’s inequality. Consequently,<br />
information <strong>asymmetry</strong> further reduces <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>, above <strong>and</strong> beyond<br />
the reduction induced by short horizons.<br />
Interestingly, the concavity property in the sensitivity of individual trades toward changes<br />
in fundamentals doesn’t arise for long horizon investors, as implied by Lemma 3. Intuitively,<br />
long horizon investors ultimately care only about the terminal payo¤ , while short horizon<br />
investors are concerned <strong>with</strong> only to the extent that it a¤ects the second period expected<br />
<strong>price</strong>. Mathematically, let’s take Benchmark 2 (long-horizon heterogeneous investors <strong>with</strong><br />
early maturity) as an example. A …rst period investor’s dem<strong>and</strong> is<br />
D 1i = 1<br />
E 1i () p 1<br />
V ar 1i () :<br />
Note that since<br />
E 1i () = V ar 1i () [z + 1 P 1 + i x 2i ]<br />
17
<strong>and</strong><br />
P1 p 1 b 1 z<br />
;<br />
c 1<br />
<br />
<br />
(1 c 1 ) p 1 b 1 z<br />
D 1i = 1 z + 1 + <br />
c i x 2i ;<br />
1<br />
which is linear in investor 1i’s private precision. This is because V ar 1i () in the numerator<br />
is exactly cancelled out by the same term in the denominator, a direct consequence of long<br />
horizons. Hence,<br />
<br />
<br />
(1 c 1 ) p 1 b 1 z<br />
D 1i dG ( i ) = 1 z + 1 + :<br />
Z i<br />
c 1<br />
In contrast, <strong>with</strong> short horizon investors, a …rst period investor’s dem<strong>and</strong> is<br />
D 1i = 1<br />
E 1i (p 2 ) p 1<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 )<br />
= 1<br />
E 1i [a 2 p 1 + b 2 z + c 2 d 2 s 2 ] p 1<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 )<br />
= 1<br />
a 2 p 1 + b 2 z + c 2 V ar 1i () [z + 1 P 1 + i x 2i ] p 1<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 )<br />
Thus, the coe¢ cient in front of x 2i is c 2V ar 1i () i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2<br />
. Note, because of short horizons, V ar<br />
)<br />
1i ()<br />
can be cancelled out by V ar 1i (p 2 ), giving rise to the aforementioned concavity property.<br />
Having established information <strong>asymmetry</strong> reduces the …rst period <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>,<br />
we now look at whether the …rst period investors dem<strong>and</strong> a higher discount in the …rst period<br />
<strong>price</strong> due to information <strong>asymmetry</strong>. De…ne the …rst period <strong>price</strong> discount as E ( p 1 j) :<br />
We have the following corollary.<br />
Corollary 1 Assume i 2 ( min ; max ), where max > min > 0. Holding average private<br />
information precision constant, the …rst period <strong>price</strong> discount is higher under information<br />
<strong>asymmetry</strong> than under information symmetry, if 1 2 1 is su¢ cient big. More<br />
generally, if F ( i ) is a mean-preserving spread of G ( i ) <strong>and</strong> there exists a unique<br />
linear equilibrium under G ( i ), then the <strong>price</strong> discount under F is higher than under<br />
G when 1 2 1 is su¢ cient big.<br />
18
Proof of Corollary 1 See appendix.<br />
Lambert et al. (2007) shows that in a model of perfect competition where an individual<br />
investor’s trading activities do not a¤ect the <strong>price</strong>, information <strong>asymmetry</strong> doesn’t matter<br />
for cost of capital <strong>and</strong> <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>, as long as the average private information<br />
precision is held constant.<br />
And they conjecture that information <strong>asymmetry</strong> may have<br />
an e¤ect in an imperfect competition setting such as Kyle (1985). In contrast, our paper<br />
suggests that information <strong>asymmetry</strong> (in the sense of a mean-preserving spread) can play a<br />
role even <strong>with</strong> perfect competitiion among investors. That is, the results so far suggest that,<br />
in our two-period model of perfect competition, holding average private information precision<br />
constant, information <strong>asymmetry</strong> strictly reduces the …rst period <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>,<br />
when investors have short horizons. The next corollary deals <strong>with</strong> the impact of the public<br />
information precision on …rst period equilibrium <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>.<br />
Corollary 2 When 1 2 1 is su¢ ciently small <strong>and</strong> + 2 > 2 max , more precise public information<br />
increases the …rst period <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>. That is, d 1<br />
d > 0.<br />
Proof of Corollary 2 See appendix.<br />
As shown in Gao (2008), <strong>with</strong> homogeneous investors public information doesn’t impact<br />
the …rst period <strong>price</strong> informativess. However, here we demonstrate that <strong>with</strong> heterogeneous<br />
investors, more precise public information enables the …rst period <strong>price</strong> to better aggregate<br />
investors’private information. As we have established earlier, introducing information <strong>asymmetry</strong><br />
reduces the …rst period <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> 1 because the concave term r ( i ) in<br />
(10). That is<br />
Note that<br />
<br />
d<br />
d 2 r<br />
d 2 i<br />
d 2 r<br />
d 2 i<br />
d<br />
<br />
=<br />
2 ( + 1 + 2 )<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) 3 :<br />
= 4 ( + 1 + 2 ) 2 i<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) 4<br />
> 0, when + 2 big.<br />
19
This is to say, <strong>with</strong> more precise public information, the term r ( i ) becomes less concave<br />
<strong>and</strong> hence more private information can be assimilated into the <strong>price</strong>. Our next result is<br />
related to the existence of multiple equilibria.<br />
3.4 Strategic uncertainties: existence of multiple linear equilibria<br />
With short horizon homogeneous investors, Gao (2008) shows that there exists a unique<br />
linear equilibrium. This can be immediately corroborated by inspecting the expression for<br />
B 1<br />
1 , which admits a unique value in equilibrium. However, <strong>with</strong> heterogeneous investors,<br />
the …rst period <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> is implicitly determined by (10). A closer inspection<br />
of (10) shows that 1 appears on both sides of the expression, thus raising the possibility<br />
of multiple equilibrium 1 ’s.<br />
multiple equilibria.<br />
The following numerical example con…rms the existence of<br />
Consider a binary distribution of i ’s, where i 2 f h ; l g <strong>with</strong> h = 100; l = 0;<br />
Pr ( h ) = 0:01; 1 = 10; 2 = 1; 1 = 10; 2 = 2; <strong>and</strong> = 2: Under these parameter values,<br />
it is straightforward to obain three equilibria.<br />
Equilibrium 1:<br />
p 1 = 0:5129z + 0:4871 1:1249s 1 ;<br />
p 2 = 0:5600p 1 + 0:0037z + 0:4363 0:4363s 2 ;<br />
1 = 1:8755; 2 = 2:<br />
Equilibrium 2:<br />
p 1 = 0:0648z + 0:9352 0:5507s 1 ;<br />
p 2 = 0:9113p 1 + 0:0000z + 0:0887 0:0887s 2 ;<br />
1 = 28:8346; 2 = 2:<br />
20
Equilibrium 3:<br />
p 1 = 0:0096z + 0:9904 0:2183s 1 ;<br />
p 2 = 0:9858p 1 + 0:0000z + 0:0142 0:0142s 2 ;<br />
1 = 205:7381; 2 = 2:<br />
This example is illustrated in Figure 1, where the 45-degree straight line represents the left<br />
h<strong>and</strong> side of (10), while the curvy line represents its right h<strong>and</strong> side. The two lines intersect<br />
each other three times, thus yielding three solutions for 1 :<br />
The existence of multiple linear equilibria may at the …rst glance appear qutie puzzling.<br />
This is because, when the perceived …rst period <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> 1<br />
increases, one<br />
expects that a …rst period investor would increase the weight on the <strong>price</strong> <strong>and</strong> decrease the<br />
weight on his private information, thus reducing the ability of <strong>price</strong> to incorporate private<br />
information <strong>and</strong> leading to a smaller 1 . This seems to point to a unique solution. However,<br />
this reasoning fails to recognize the subtle role played by information <strong>asymmetry</strong> to aggregate<br />
private information into <strong>price</strong>. As discussed in the previous section, an individual investor’s<br />
weight on his private information is c 2V ar 1i () i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2<br />
, which by the proof of Proposition 1 in the<br />
)<br />
2 E[r( i )]<br />
2 +<br />
i<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i<br />
.<br />
appendix equals to<br />
r() , where r ( i) =<br />
Note that, Though r ( i ) is<br />
concave in i , this concavity decreases as 1 increases. To see this, the second derivative of<br />
r ( i ) <strong>with</strong> respect to i is<br />
@ 2 r<br />
@ 2 i<br />
+ <br />
= 2<br />
1 + 2<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) 3 :<br />
Note that<br />
lim<br />
@ 2 r<br />
1 !1@ 2 i<br />
= 0:<br />
21
Furthermore, taking a partial derivative <strong>with</strong> respect to 1 on @2 r<br />
,<br />
@ 2 i<br />
<br />
@<br />
@ 2 r<br />
@ 2 i<br />
@ 1<br />
= 2 2 ( + 1 + 2 ) i<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) 4 > 0, when 1 big enough.<br />
Let’s start <strong>with</strong> the equilibrium where 1 = 28:83. When investors’perceived 1 increases,<br />
there are two opposing e¤ects at play. On the one h<strong>and</strong>, investors put a smaller weight on<br />
their private information, thus leading to muted <strong>price</strong> informativenes. On the other h<strong>and</strong>,<br />
the information aggregation loss due to concavity decreases, thus resulting in pronounced<br />
<strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>. When the second e¤ect dominates the …rst e¤ect, a second equilibrium<br />
<strong>with</strong> a larger 1 may emerge. Conversely, When investors’perceived 1 decreases, there are<br />
again two countervailing forces. On the one h<strong>and</strong>, investors put a larger weight on their<br />
private information, thus leading to a higher <strong>price</strong> informativenes.<br />
On the other h<strong>and</strong>,<br />
the information aggregation loss due to concavity increases, thus resulting in lower <strong>price</strong><br />
<strong>informativeness</strong>. When the second e¤ect dominates the …rst e¤ect, a third equilibrium <strong>with</strong><br />
a smaller 1 may emerge.<br />
4 Extension: three periods<br />
Two key results have emerged from our analysis in the previous section. That is, introducing<br />
information <strong>asymmetry</strong> to a two-period model populated by short horizon investors reduces<br />
<strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> <strong>and</strong> may lead to multiple equilibria. In this section, as a robustness<br />
check, we extend the analysis to three periods. Speci…cally, let’s consider period t 2 f1; 2; 3g.<br />
The risky asset’s terminal payo¤ is realized at the end of period 3. As before, period t<br />
investors only live for one period, establish their holdings of the risky asset at the beginning<br />
of period t, <strong>and</strong> have to liquidate these holdings at the end of period t. To simplify our<br />
analysis, we set t (i.e. period t investors’risk tolerance) to be for all t. As before, we<br />
22
focus on linear pricing equations. That is,<br />
p 1 = b 1 z + c 1 d 1 s 1 ;<br />
p 2 = a 2 p 1 + b 2 z + c 2 d 2 s 2 ;<br />
<strong>and</strong> p 3 = f 3 p 2 + a 3 p 1 + b 3 z + c 3 d 3 s 3 :<br />
The following proposition derives expressions of <strong>price</strong> informativess.<br />
Proposition 2<br />
With three periods, <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> for each period is given by<br />
3 = 3 2 2 ;<br />
0<br />
R 2 i<br />
2 = 2 2 2 3<br />
dG (<br />
<br />
@ i + i + 1 + 2 + 3 i )<br />
A<br />
3 + <br />
<br />
12<br />
+ + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
; (11)<br />
2<br />
32<br />
1 = 1 2 2 4<br />
2<br />
2 + R 5 (12)<br />
2 + i (+ 3 )<br />
dG (<br />
i + i + 1 + 2 + 3 i )<br />
0R<br />
2 0<br />
i<br />
R<br />
2<br />
+<br />
dG (<br />
<br />
@ i + i + 1 + 2 + 3 i )<br />
i + 1 + 2<br />
dG (<br />
<br />
A @ i + i + 1 + 2 + 3 i )<br />
A :<br />
1<br />
<br />
+ + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
1<br />
+ + 1 + 2<br />
+ + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
Proof of Proposition 2 Similar to the proof of Proposition 1, hence omitted.<br />
R<br />
i<br />
Observe that (11) is quite similar to (10) in Proposition 1, except that the last term<br />
i<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
dG( i )<br />
2<br />
involves the …rst period <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> <br />
<br />
1 . This is because<br />
+ + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
<strong>with</strong> three periods, the second period investors utilize information contained in the …rst<br />
period <strong>price</strong> to form their portfolios. Proposition 3 sheds light on wether the two key insights<br />
we have established before (i.e. that information <strong>asymmetry</strong> reduces the …rst period <strong>price</strong><br />
<strong>informativeness</strong> <strong>and</strong> can generate multiple equilibria) extends to three periods.<br />
Proposition 3<br />
There exists a ^ 1 > 0, such that 8 1 < ^ 1 , when investors have identical<br />
private information precisions, there only exists one unqiue linear equilibrium.<br />
23
Suppose parameter values are such that there is a unique equilibrium information<br />
symmetry. When investors have di¤erring private information precisions,<br />
where B 1<br />
t<br />
1 < B 1<br />
1 <strong>and</strong> 2 < B 1<br />
2 ;<br />
is the period t <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> in the benchmark case 1 where<br />
short horizon investors have identical private information precisions.<br />
Suppose parameter values are such that there is a unique equilibrium <strong>with</strong> information<br />
symmetry. When investors have di¤erring private information precisions,<br />
there may exist multiple linear equilibria.<br />
Proof of Proposition 3 See appendix.<br />
Part 1 of Proposition 3 identi…es a su¢ cient condition (i.e. 1 < ^ 1 ) such that there<br />
exists a unique linear equilibrium under information symmetry. Part 2 <strong>and</strong> 3 demonstrate<br />
that, if one starts <strong>with</strong> a unique equilibrium under information symmetry, that introducing<br />
information <strong>asymmetry</strong> reduces <strong>price</strong> informativenss <strong>and</strong> can lead to multiple lienar equilibria<br />
continues to hold in a three period setup.<br />
To give an example of multiple equilibria, let’s consider the following set of parameter<br />
values ( = 1; 1 = 9; 2 = 1; 3 = 1 <strong>and</strong> = 1). Suppose the average private information<br />
precision across all investors is 0:5. One can easily verify that there is only one equilibrium<br />
under information symmetry (i.e. all investors have a identical private information precision<br />
0:5). Now, let’s introduce information <strong>asymmetry</strong> while holding the average private<br />
information precision constant at 0:5. Speci…cally, let’s assume a binary distribution of i ’s,<br />
where i 2 f h ; l g <strong>with</strong> h = 50; l = 0; Pr ( h ) = 0:01: It is straightforward to obain the<br />
following three equilibria.<br />
Equilibrium 1:<br />
24
p 1 = 0:2668z + 0:7332 1:4268s 1 ;<br />
p 2 = 0:3815p 1 + 0:0159z + 0:6026 0:3210s 2 ;<br />
p 3 = 0:0274p 1 + 0:1585p 2 + 0:0011z + 0:8130 0:1626s 3 ;<br />
1 = 2:3770; 2 = 3:5244; 3 = 25:<br />
Equilibrium 2:<br />
p 1 = 0:0346z + 0:9654 0:5521s 1 ;<br />
p 2 = 0:7959p 1 + 0:0004z + 0:2037 0:0830s 2 ;<br />
p 3 = 0:0767p 1 + 0:4584p 2 + 0:0000z + 0:4648 0:0930s 3 ;<br />
1 = 27:5160; 2 = 6:0271; 3 = 25:<br />
Equilibrium 3:<br />
p 1 = 0:0129z + 0:9871 0:3391s 1 ;<br />
p 2 = 0:8862p 1 + 0:0001z + 0:1138 0:0379s 2 ;<br />
p 3 = 0:0597p 1 + 0:6823p 2 + 0:0000z + 0:2580 0:0516s 3 ;<br />
1 = 76:2460; 2 = 9:0241; 3 = 25:<br />
Figure 2 illustrates the three solutions of 1 2 pairs. Curve A represents those 1<br />
2 combinations such that the 2 expression in Proposition 2 is satis…ed, while Curve B<br />
represents those 1 2 combinations such that the 1 expression in Proposition 2 is satis…ed.<br />
The equilibria are represented by the three intersections of the two curves.<br />
5 Conclusion<br />
[To Be Finished.]<br />
25
6 Appendix<br />
Proof of Lemma 1 To be …nished.<br />
Proof of Lemma 3 Part 1 results from a straightforward inspection of B 1<br />
1 , B 2<br />
1 <strong>and</strong><br />
B 3<br />
1 .<br />
[To be …nished].<br />
Proof of Proposition 1<br />
When traders have a short investment horizon, the <strong>informativeness</strong><br />
of p 1 will be di¤erent from that of p 2 . To see this, notice that the<br />
…rst generation traders’terminal wealth depends on p 2 , instead of on the …rm’s<br />
fundamental . As a result, the …rst generation traders’dem<strong>and</strong> will be given by<br />
D 1i = 1<br />
E 1i (p 2 ) p 1<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 )<br />
Comparing D 1i <strong>with</strong> D 2i , we can see that it is the conditional expectation <strong>and</strong><br />
variance of p 2 (not ) that determines the …rst generation’s trade, which in turn,<br />
will a¤ect the <strong>informativeness</strong> of p 1 . Substitute in the expressions for E 1i (p 2 ) <strong>and</strong><br />
V ar 1i (p 2 )<br />
E 1i (p 2 ) = a 2 p 1 + b 2 z + c 2 E i ()<br />
=<br />
z + <br />
a 2 p 1 + b 2 z + c 1 P1 + i x 1i<br />
2<br />
+ 1 + i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) = c 2 2V ar 1i () + d 2 2V ar 1i (s 2 )<br />
= d2 2<br />
(<br />
2 V ar 1i () + 1)<br />
2<br />
<br />
<br />
= c2 2 2<br />
+ 1 :<br />
2 + 1 + i<br />
into D 1i <strong>and</strong> apply the market clearing condition of R i<br />
D 1i dG ( i ) = s 1 , we have<br />
Z<br />
E 1i (p 2 ) p 1<br />
i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i)<br />
26<br />
s 1<br />
1<br />
= 0
(a 2 1) p 1<br />
Z<br />
1<br />
i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i) + b 2 z<br />
Z<br />
E 1i () V ar 1i ()<br />
+c 2<br />
V ar 1i ()<br />
i<br />
Z<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i)<br />
1<br />
i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i)<br />
s 1<br />
1<br />
= 0<br />
Since E 1i () = z+ 1 P 1 + i x 1i<br />
1<br />
<strong>and</strong> V ar<br />
+ 1 + 1i () = , we have<br />
i + 1 + i<br />
Z<br />
Z<br />
1<br />
(a 2 1) p 1<br />
i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( 1<br />
i) + b 2 z<br />
i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i)<br />
+c 2<br />
Z<br />
Substitute in P 1 = p 1<br />
(a 2 1) p 1<br />
Z<br />
+c 2 1<br />
p 1 bz<br />
c 1<br />
i<br />
1<br />
i<br />
i<br />
(z + 1 P 1 + i x 1i ) V ar 1i ()<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i)<br />
c 1<br />
bz<br />
<strong>and</strong> collect terms. We have<br />
Z<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i) + b 2 z<br />
Z<br />
Z<br />
V ar 1i ()<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i) + c 2<br />
i<br />
1<br />
s 1<br />
1<br />
= 0<br />
Z<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i) + c 2 z<br />
<br />
i<br />
V ar 1i ()<br />
i<br />
i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i) <br />
<strong>and</strong> therefore<br />
2 R<br />
1<br />
b 2 <br />
p 1 = k 2<br />
4<br />
dG ( b<br />
i V ar 1i (p 2 ) i) + c 2 (a 1 c 1<br />
) R <br />
i<br />
R <br />
V ar<br />
+c 2 1i ()<br />
dG ( i i V ar 1i (p 2 ) i)<br />
where k 2 =<br />
(1 a 2 ) R i<br />
1<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i)<br />
1<br />
c 2 1<br />
c 1<br />
R<br />
i<br />
V ar 1i ()<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i)<br />
s 1<br />
1<br />
= 0<br />
<br />
V ar 1i ()<br />
dG ( V ar 1i (p 2 ) i)<br />
<br />
V ar 1i ()<br />
dG ( V ar 1i (p 2 ) i) :<br />
Thus, the <strong>informativeness</strong> of p 1 is given by<br />
2 Z<br />
c1<br />
1 = <br />
d 1 = 1 2 V ar 1i ()<br />
1<br />
c 2 i<br />
1 i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i)<br />
Now, let’s solve for the expression of integr<strong>and</strong>:<br />
Z<br />
V ar 1i ()<br />
c 2 i<br />
i<br />
V ar 1i (p 2 ) dG ( i)<br />
Z<br />
1<br />
+<br />
= c 2 1 +<br />
i<br />
<br />
i<br />
dG (<br />
c<br />
2 2 i )<br />
2<br />
i + 1<br />
2 + 1 + i<br />
= 2<br />
c 2<br />
E [r ( i )] :<br />
27<br />
3<br />
z<br />
(13) 5<br />
s 1<br />
1<br />
2
where r ( i ) =<br />
i<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i<br />
<strong>and</strong> the expectation operator is <strong>with</strong> respect to the<br />
underlying distribution of i . Note r ( i ) is strictly increasing <strong>and</strong> concave in <br />
(i.e., r 0 () > 0 <strong>and</strong> r 00 () < 0). Also note that c 2 can be expressed<br />
Therefore, we have<br />
c 2 =<br />
2 + <br />
+ 1 + 2 + = 2 + <br />
r :<br />
<br />
1 = 1 2 1<br />
2 <br />
2 + <br />
E [r ()]<br />
r ! 2<br />
:<br />
Thus, the equilibrium informativenss of …rst period <strong>price</strong> would be lower under F<br />
than under G. This proves our main result in Proposition 1. For completeness,<br />
one can solve the pricing functions by setting up a system of equations where<br />
coe¢ cient in (3) are equal to those in (13). These coe¢ cients are<br />
a 2 =<br />
b 2 =<br />
1<br />
c 1<br />
+ 1 + + 2<br />
<br />
b 1<br />
c 1<br />
1<br />
+ 1 + + 2<br />
+ <br />
c 2 =<br />
2<br />
+ 1 + + 2<br />
d 2 = 1 + 2<br />
+ 1 + + 2<br />
2 = 2 2 2<br />
b 1 =<br />
c 1 =<br />
1 =<br />
d 1 =<br />
<br />
+ 1 + 2 + <br />
+ 2<br />
+ 1 + 2 + <br />
<br />
0<br />
2 2 2 <br />
2 <br />
+ 1<br />
@<br />
2<br />
+ 2<br />
2<br />
2 + 1 + 2 + 2<br />
1 + R <br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
R<br />
<br />
1<br />
2<br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
R<br />
i<br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i ) + R<br />
1<br />
+<br />
R<br />
2<br />
+ 1 + i<br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
R<br />
12<br />
i<br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
A<br />
<br />
+ 1 + 2 + <br />
R<br />
i<br />
i<br />
dG (<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i i ) + 1<br />
R<br />
+ 1 + i<br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i ) R i<br />
28<br />
i<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i + <br />
+ 1 + 2 + i<br />
dG ( i )<br />
R<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i + <br />
+ 2 i<br />
dG (<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
:<br />
i<br />
dG (<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i i )
Clearly, for every solution of 1 , there is a unique set of equilibrium <strong>price</strong>s.<br />
To prove part 2 of the proposition. Note that<br />
1 = 1 2 1<br />
! 2<br />
2 E [r ()]<br />
2 + r <br />
2<br />
2 <br />
;<br />
< 1 1 2 1<br />
2 + <br />
where the inequality follows the Jensen’s inequality <strong>and</strong> the fact that r () is<br />
strictly concave. It is easy to see that 1 is the <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong> when the<br />
precisions of investors’private information are identical. Thus, holding the average<br />
constant, whenever i 6= j for any i 6= j, the <strong>informativeness</strong> of …rst period<br />
<strong>price</strong> will be lower.<br />
Given the concavity of r ( i ), it is immediate that if a distribution of i , say<br />
F ( i ), is a mean preserving spread of G ( i ), then for every 1 the right h<strong>and</strong><br />
side of (10) is strictly smaller under F than under G. Furhtermore, if there exisits<br />
a unique linear equilibrium under G, the slope of the right h<strong>and</strong> side of (10) at<br />
the equilibrium has to be less than 1, otherwise there would be at least one more<br />
equilibrium. Thus, it must be that any <strong>price</strong> informativess generated under F<br />
must be strictly less than that under G. Q.E.D.<br />
Proof of Corollary 1 Note that<br />
E ( p 1 j) = E ( b 1 z c 1 + d 1 s 1 )<br />
= d 1 s.<br />
29
From the proof of Proposition 1,<br />
2<br />
R<br />
+ 2<br />
d 1 =<br />
2 + 1 + 2 + 2<br />
2<br />
=<br />
By (10), we have<br />
Z<br />
Thus,<br />
+ 2<br />
2<br />
2 + 1 + 2 + 2<br />
i<br />
i<br />
6<br />
4<br />
i<br />
dG (<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i i ) + 1 + 1 + 2 + i + dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
R<br />
+ 1 + i<br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i ) R i<br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
3<br />
R<br />
i<br />
i<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i<br />
dG ( i ) =<br />
+ 2<br />
R<br />
1<br />
R<br />
+<br />
+ 1 + i<br />
dG( i + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
<br />
1 1+ R <br />
<br />
+ 2<br />
dG( i + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
+ 1 + i dG( + 1 + 2 + i i ) R i<br />
<br />
+ 1 + 2 + <br />
i<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i<br />
dG( i )<br />
p<br />
1<br />
7<br />
5 .<br />
+ 2<br />
p :<br />
2 1<br />
d 1 =<br />
2<br />
+ 2<br />
2 + 1 + 2 + 1<br />
2<br />
R<br />
+ 1 + i<br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i ) +<br />
<br />
p <br />
1 p 1<br />
+ 2 1<br />
+ 1 + 2 + 1 + R <br />
<br />
dG ( + 2 i + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
R<br />
+ 1 + i<br />
dG (<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
i<br />
Notice that<br />
+ 1 + i<br />
(+ 1 + 2 + i ) 1<br />
is concave in i <strong>and</strong><br />
1 constant, d 1 is higher under F than under G. Also, note that<br />
R i<br />
<br />
<br />
is convex in <br />
+ 1 + 2 + i i . Hence, holding<br />
( + 2 ) 2<br />
, <strong>and</strong><br />
2 (+ 1 + 2 + ) 2<br />
dG (<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i i ) are all decreasing in 1 , <strong>and</strong> that R + 1 + i<br />
dG (<br />
i + 1 + 2 + i i ) increasing<br />
p 1 ( +<br />
in 1 . Finally, simple algebra shows that<br />
2 ) p 1<br />
(+ 1 + 2 + ) is decreasing in 1 only when<br />
1 > + + 2 . Consequently, everything else equal, d 1 decreases <strong>with</strong> 1 when<br />
1 > + + 2 . Note<br />
R<br />
i<br />
r ( i ) dG ( i )<br />
r = Z<br />
2<br />
i<br />
+ 1 + 2 + i<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) dG ( i)<br />
+ 1 + 2 + min<br />
( + 1 + 2 + max ) ; + 1 + 2 + max<br />
( + 1 + 2 + min ) <br />
where max <strong>and</strong> min are the highest <strong>and</strong> the lowest private precision, respectively. Since<br />
min <strong>and</strong> max are strictly positive <strong>and</strong> …nite, the equilirium 1 implicitly determined<br />
30<br />
!<br />
;
y (10) is positive <strong>and</strong> bounded from below <strong>and</strong> from above as a function of 1 holding<br />
everything else constant. Speci…cally, 1 ’s lower bound can be obtained as<br />
R<br />
! 2<br />
2<br />
1 = 1 2 2 2 r (<br />
i i ) dG ( i )<br />
1<br />
2 + r <br />
" 2<br />
> 1 2 2 2 + 1 + 2 + # 2<br />
min<br />
1<br />
2 + ( + 1 + 2 + max ) <br />
" 2<br />
> 1 2 2 2 + 2 + # 2<br />
min<br />
1<br />
2 + ( + 2 + max ) > 0;<br />
where the second inequality follows as (+ 1 + 2 + ) min<br />
(+ 1 + 2 + max ) is increasing in 1. Thus, a<br />
su¢ cient condition for 1 > + + 2 is 1 2 1 su¢ ciently big. The corollary is<br />
immediate since a mean preserving spread entails a reduction in 1 as established in<br />
Proposition 1. For completeness, 1 ’s upper bound can be established as<br />
"R<br />
# 2 2<br />
1 = 1 2 2 2 r (<br />
i i ) dG ( i )<br />
1<br />
2 + r <br />
" 2<br />
< 1 2 2 2 + 1 + 2 + max<br />
1<br />
2 + ( + 1 + 2 + min ) <br />
" 2<br />
< 1 2 2 2 + 2 + # 2<br />
max<br />
1<br />
2 + ( + 2 + min ) ;<br />
# 2<br />
where the second inequality follows as (+ 1 + 2 + ) max<br />
(+ 1 + 2 + min ) <br />
is decreasing in i. Q.E.D.<br />
[I noticed that when discussing the e¤ect of information <strong>asymmetry</strong> on cost of capital, we<br />
didn’t control for the <strong>informativeness</strong> from <strong>price</strong>. When we increase the heterogeneity<br />
in the precision of private information, the <strong>price</strong> becomes less informative; <strong>and</strong> the<br />
average precision of the total information reduces. So, in order to isolate the e¤ect of<br />
information <strong>asymmetry</strong>, we need to manipulate 1 such taht 1 is the same as when<br />
there is no information <strong>asymmetry</strong>. In other words, we need to increase 1 such that<br />
31
1 =<br />
<br />
2<br />
+ 2<br />
2<br />
2 2 1<br />
R<br />
i<br />
i dG( + 1 + 2 + i i )<br />
<br />
+ 1 + 2 + <br />
2<br />
is still satis…ed. Then we can see clearly<br />
that cost of capital increases when there is more information <strong>asymmetry</strong>.<br />
Proof of Corollary 2 Rewrite (10) as<br />
" 2 Z<br />
1 = 1 2 2 2 i + 1 + 2 + # 2<br />
1<br />
2 + i<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) dG ( i) :<br />
Take a total derivative <strong>with</strong> respect to , treating 1 as a function of .<br />
2<br />
0 1 = 2 1 2 2 2<br />
1<br />
<br />
2 + <br />
" Z<br />
i + 1 + 2 + <br />
i<br />
2<br />
4<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) dG ( i)<br />
3<br />
dG (<br />
(+ 1 + 2 + i ) 2 i ) +<br />
5 :<br />
( i ) i<br />
dG (<br />
R i (+ 1 + 2 + i ) 2 i )<br />
R i<br />
( i ) i<br />
0 1<br />
#<br />
<br />
Zeqiong]<br />
Rearranging,<br />
where<br />
(1 K) 0 1 = K;<br />
2<br />
K 2 1 2 2 2<br />
1<br />
<br />
2 + <br />
" Z<br />
i + 1 + 2 + <br />
i<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) dG ( i)<br />
" Z<br />
i #<br />
i<br />
i<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) 2 dG ( i)<br />
#<br />
<br />
If we can show K 2 (0; 1), then 0 1 > 0. Note that a su¢ cient condition for<br />
to be convex in i is + 2 > 2 max <strong>and</strong> that<br />
( i ) i<br />
(+ 1 + 2 + i ) 2<br />
( i ) i<br />
(+ 1 + 2 + i ) 2<br />
evaluated at i = is zero.<br />
Thus, when + 2 > 2 max , the second square bracket in K is strictly positive, so is<br />
32
K. Furthermore, holding other exogenous parameters constant, we have<br />
i + 1 + 2 + <br />
( + 1 + 2 + i )<br />
min + 1 + 2 + <br />
2<br />
( + 1 + 2 + max ) ; max + 1 + 2 + !<br />
( + 1 + 2 + min )<br />
min + 2 + <br />
<br />
( + 2 + max ) ; max + 2 + !<br />
;<br />
( + 2 + min )<br />
<strong>and</strong><br />
Z<br />
i i<br />
i<br />
( + 1 + 2 + i ) 2 dG ( i)<br />
max !<br />
max<br />
2 0;<br />
( + 1 + 2 + min ) 2<br />
max !<br />
max<br />
0;<br />
( + 2 + min ) 2 :<br />
Notice all these bounds independent of 1 or 1 . Thus, when 1 2 1 is su¢ ciently small,<br />
K will be less than 1. And 0 1 > 0 follows. Q.E.D.<br />
Proof of Proposition 3<br />
To prove the …rst part, note that when all investors have the<br />
same private information precision, we have<br />
3 = 3<br />
2 ;<br />
2<br />
2 = 2 2 2 3<br />
;<br />
3 + <br />
2<br />
1 = 1 2 2 6 2<br />
4<br />
2 + 2 +(+ 3)<br />
32<br />
7<br />
5<br />
++ 1 + 2 + 3<br />
: (14)<br />
Observe that when 1 = 0 ( 1 = 1), the left h<strong>and</strong> side of (14) is smaller (larger)<br />
then it right h<strong>and</strong> side. Thus, there exists at least one solution of 1 . Also note<br />
33
that the right h<strong>and</strong> side is strictly increasing in 1<br />
derivative <strong>with</strong> respect to 1 has the same sign as<br />
<strong>and</strong> that its second order<br />
2 + ( 3 2 ) 2 2 ( + 1 + 2 + 3 ) :<br />
Thus, the right h<strong>and</strong> side is concave in 1 if <strong>and</strong> only if<br />
1 2 + ( 3 2 )<br />
2 2<br />
( + 2 + 3 ) :<br />
Clearly, a su¢ cient condition for a unique 1<br />
satisfying (14) is that the …rst<br />
order derivate of the right h<strong>and</strong> of (14) <strong>with</strong> respect to 1 , evaluated at 1 =<br />
2 + ( 3 2 )<br />
2 2<br />
( + 2 + 3 ), is less than 1, the slope of the left h<strong>and</strong> side <strong>with</strong><br />
respect to 1 . Hence, simple algebra leads to the following condition:<br />
i<br />
27<br />
h1 + 3 3 2 + 3 2 2 3 4 + 3 2 3 ( 2 + 3 ) 6<br />
1 ^ 1 <br />
8 4 :<br />
2 2 3 8<br />
It is also straightforward to see that at the unique equilibrium <strong>price</strong> <strong>informativeness</strong>,<br />
the slope of right h<strong>and</strong> side of (14) <strong>with</strong> respect to 1 is strictly less than<br />
1. Otherwise, there would be at least one other equilibrium 1 satisfying (14), a<br />
contradiction.<br />
To prove the second part of Proposition 3, note that the last term on the right<br />
h<strong>and</strong> side of (11),<br />
0R<br />
@<br />
i<br />
12<br />
i<br />
A<br />
<br />
+ + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
dG ( i )<br />
is strictly smaller than 1 when investors have di¤erent private precisions. This is<br />
because<br />
re-write (12) as<br />
i<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
is concave in i . Hence, 2 < B 1<br />
2 . To establish 1 < B 1<br />
1 ,<br />
0R<br />
@<br />
i<br />
1 = 1 2 2 M (15)<br />
2 0<br />
i<br />
R<br />
2<br />
+<br />
dG (<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3 i )<br />
i + 1 + 2<br />
dG (<br />
<br />
A @ i + i + 1 + 2 + 3 i )<br />
A ;<br />
1<br />
<br />
+ + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
1<br />
+ + 1 + 2<br />
+ + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
34
where,<br />
2<br />
6<br />
M 4<br />
1 + R i<br />
<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
dG ( i ) + R i<br />
1<br />
i<br />
+3<br />
2<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
dG ( i )<br />
3<br />
7<br />
5<br />
2<br />
:<br />
Note,<br />
+3 <br />
i 2<br />
dG (<br />
Z i<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + i ) = Z<br />
+ 3<br />
3 2 i<br />
=<br />
+ 3<br />
R i<br />
i<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
dG ( i )<br />
<br />
3<br />
+ 3<br />
2<br />
2 2 2<br />
=<br />
i<br />
+3<br />
2<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
dG ( i ) increases when there is het-<br />
Hence, holding 2 constant, R i<br />
erogeneity among investors, since<br />
+ 3<br />
3<br />
<br />
R<br />
i<br />
i<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
dG ( i )<br />
! 2<br />
i dG( + i + 1 + 2 + 3 i )<br />
<br />
++ 1 + 2 + 3<br />
2<br />
<br />
++ 1 + 2 + 3<br />
2 3 2 2 2<br />
R i<br />
i<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
dG ( i ) :<br />
i<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
is concave in i . Also,<br />
<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
is convex in i <strong>and</strong> thus R i<br />
<br />
+ i + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
dG ( i ) increases <strong>with</strong> heterogeneity.<br />
As a result, M decreases as investors have di¤erent private information precision.<br />
What’s more, notice that M is increasing in 2 , everything else equal. As<br />
such, information <strong>asymmetry</strong> a¤ects M via two channels: …rst, holding 2 constant,<br />
information <strong>asymmetry</strong> reduces it through concavity/convexity; second,<br />
information <strong>asymmetry</strong> decreases the equilibrium 2 which in turn reduces the<br />
…rst bracket even further. Similarly, due to concavity, introducing information<br />
<strong>asymmetry</strong> makes<br />
R i<br />
2<br />
dG( i + i + 1 + 2 + 3 i )<br />
<strong>and</strong><br />
<br />
+ + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
R + i + 1 + 2<br />
2<br />
dG( i + i + 1 + 2 + 3 i )<br />
+ + 1 + 2<br />
in (15)<br />
+ + 1 + 2 + 3<br />
strictly less than 1, while <strong>with</strong> identical private information precisions these two<br />
terms equal to 1. This implies that for every 1 , introducing information <strong>asymmetry</strong><br />
reduces the right h<strong>and</strong> side of (15). Hence, the solution to (15) must be<br />
smaller than B 1<br />
1 .<br />
35
Part 3 is proved by the numerical example following the proposition in the main<br />
text.<br />
Q.E.D.<br />
36