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2008 <strong>NABE</strong> ANNUAL MEETING<br />

OCTOBER 4-7, 2008<br />

JW MARRIOTT HOTEL<br />

WASHINGTON, DC


WELCOME<br />

Dear Colleague,<br />

SPONSORS<br />

<strong>NABE</strong> is grateful to the Annual Meeting Sponsors<br />

PLATINUM<br />

Welcome to <strong>NABE</strong>’s 50th Annual Meeting! Over the<br />

next several days, you’ll have the opportunity to learn<br />

from key global thinkers and policymakers about the<br />

current financial turbulence and how it is likely to play<br />

out over the longer term, affecting incomes and<br />

standards of living worldwide.<br />

In addition, you’ll have opportunities to network with<br />

fellow professionals from around the world. Our goal<br />

is to provide you with new contacts, tools, and<br />

knowledge that you will be able to use and share with<br />

your colleagues immediately.<br />

SILVER<br />

We’d like to extend our thanks for organizing this<br />

meeting to Lynn Reaser, Bank of America; Kevin<br />

Kliesen, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Richard<br />

Brown, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and<br />

Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial.<br />

Enjoy the meeting and the celebration of <strong>NABE</strong>’s 50<br />

years of economic leadership.<br />

Sincerely yours,<br />

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick<br />

<strong>NABE</strong> President<br />

TABLE OF CONTENTS<br />

Annual Meeting Guide ........................................4<br />

Meeting Overview................................................5<br />

Exhibitors.............................................................7<br />

Program Sessions .................................................9<br />

Upcoming <strong>NABE</strong> Events .....................................16<br />

BRONZE<br />

Altarum<br />

American Chemistry<br />

Council<br />

American Farm<br />

Bureau Federation<br />

CEIC Data<br />

Greenwood & Associates<br />

ISI Group<br />

Medley Global Advisors<br />

Swedbank<br />

Wolters Kluwer<br />

Our thanks and appreciation to The Embassy of the<br />

People’s Republic of China in the United States.<br />

2<br />

3


ADVERTISERS<br />

Action Economics, LLC<br />

BP<br />

CEIC Data<br />

FactSet Research Systems<br />

Federal Reserve Bank of New York<br />

Quantitative Micro Software<br />

Regional Economic Models, Inc.<br />

Wolters Kluwer<br />

ANNUAL MEETING GUIDE<br />

Registration<br />

The meeting registration booth is located on the<br />

Ballroom Level by the escalators. Registration hours<br />

are as follows:<br />

Saturday, October 4 4 PM to 6 PM<br />

Sunday, October 5 8 AM to 5 PM<br />

Monday, October 6 7 AM to 5 PM<br />

Tuesday, October 7 7 AM to 2 PM<br />

Press Room<br />

The Press Room is located in the State Room and will<br />

be open throughout the meeting.<br />

Admission to Annual Meeting Events<br />

Please wear your conference badge at all times to<br />

gain admission into all the meeting sessions and the<br />

Exhibit Hall. Tickets, which are included in the<br />

registration packets (behind your name badge), are<br />

required for entry into all meal functions.<br />

Pre-registration is required for the Hillwood Mansion<br />

tour, National Press Club dinner, and the Small<br />

Group Dinners.<br />

MEETING OVERVIEW<br />

All sessions and events will take place at the JW Marriott<br />

Hotel except for the Saturday tour and the dinner, the<br />

Sunday reception, and the Monday reception.<br />

Saturday, October 4, 2008<br />

Afternoon and Evening<br />

12:30-4:30 Hillwood Mansion Tour<br />

4:30-5:00 <strong>NABE</strong> Business Meeting<br />

5:00-6:30 <strong>NABE</strong> President’s Welcome Reception<br />

7:00-9:00 Dinner Honoring <strong>NABE</strong>’s Past Presidents<br />

Sunday, October 5, 2008<br />

Morning<br />

9:30-10:30 Financial Engineering<br />

10:45-11:45 Professional Presence/Nonverbal<br />

Communication<br />

Afternoon and Evening<br />

12:00-1:30 Luncheon<br />

1:45-3:15 Economic Policy Debate<br />

3:15-3:45 Networking Break<br />

3:45-4:45 Concurrent Sessions 1<br />

5:00-5:30 Long-term Investment Climate<br />

6:00-7:30 Reception at Embassy of China<br />

7:45-9:30 Small Group Dinners<br />

4<br />

5


MEETING OVERVIEW CONTINUED<br />

Monday, October 6, 2008<br />

Morning<br />

7:00-7:45 Continental Breakfast<br />

8:00-9:15 Nobel Panel on Globalization<br />

9:30-10:15 <strong>NABE</strong> Outlook<br />

10:15-10:45 Networking Break<br />

10:45-11:45 Lessons of the Great Credit<br />

Crunch of 2007-2008<br />

Afternoon and Evening<br />

12:00-1:30 Luncheon<br />

1:45-2:45 Concurrent Sessions 2<br />

3:00-3:30 <strong>NABE</strong> President Address<br />

3:30-4:00 Networking Break<br />

4:00-5:00 Long-term Fiscal Outlook<br />

5:30-7:00 Reception at FDIC<br />

Tuesday, October 7, 2008<br />

7:30-9:00 Breakfast<br />

9:00-10:00 Adam Smith Award Address<br />

10:00-10:30 Networking Break<br />

10:30-11:15 Dating Business Cycles<br />

11:30-12:15 Challenges to the Global Economy<br />

12:30-2:00 Luncheon<br />

2:15-3:15 Get Connected Planning Meeting<br />

EXHIBITORS<br />

Exhibitor Hall<br />

Exhibits will be in Salon DE during these hours:<br />

Sunday, October 5 10 AM to 4:00 PM<br />

Monday, October 6 7 AM to 4 PM<br />

Tuesday, October 7 9:30 AM to 12:00 Noon<br />

We will hold all networking breaks and Monday’s<br />

continental breakfast in the exhibit hall.<br />

American Chemistry Council<br />

703-741-5592<br />

January M. Williams<br />

january_williams@americanchemistry.com<br />

www.americanchemistry.com<br />

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)<br />

202-691-5862<br />

Eleni Karageorge<br />

Karageorge.Eleni@bls.gov<br />

www.bls.gov<br />

CEIC Data<br />

212-610-2926<br />

Janice Banaria<br />

jbanaria@securities.com<br />

www.ceicdata.com<br />

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation<br />

703-562-6071<br />

Velda Fludd<br />

vfludd@fdic.gov<br />

www.fdic.gov<br />

Global Insight Inc<br />

781-301-9324<br />

Elizabeth Foote<br />

beth.foote@globalinsight.com<br />

www.globalinsight.com<br />

Haver Analytics Inc<br />

212-490-7158<br />

Paul-Andre Leblanc<br />

paul@haver.com<br />

www.haver.com<br />

6<br />

7


EXHIBITORS CONTINUED<br />

Macroeconomic Advisers LLC<br />

314-721-4747<br />

Debbie Cason<br />

cason@macroadvisers.com<br />

www.macroadvisers.com<br />

The Mathworks<br />

508-647-7000<br />

www.mathworks.com<br />

OECD<br />

202-822-3870<br />

Kathleen DeBoer<br />

kathleen.deboer@oecd.org<br />

www.oecdwash.org<br />

Quantum4D Inc<br />

415-830-4444<br />

Michael Warner<br />

info@quantum4D.com<br />

www.quantum4d.com<br />

Regional Economic Models, Inc.<br />

413-549-1169<br />

Mark D’Amato<br />

info@remi.com<br />

www.remi.com<br />

Timberlake Consultants<br />

908-686-1251<br />

Noelia Germino<br />

info@timberlake-consultancy.com<br />

www.timberlake-consultancy.com<br />

US Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />

202-606-9687<br />

Robert Wehausen<br />

robert.wehausen@bea.gov<br />

www.bea.gov<br />

US Census Bureau<br />

301-763-6718<br />

Robert Marske<br />

robert.a.marske@census.gov<br />

www.business.census.gov<br />

8<br />

PROGRAM SESSIONS<br />

Saturday, October 4, 2008<br />

HILLWOOD MANSION TOUR<br />

12:30-4:30 PM<br />

Meet in the hotel lobby at 12:30 PM for a 12:45 PM<br />

departure. Bus is scheduled to arrive back at the JW<br />

Marriott at 4:30 PM. Advanced registration required.<br />

4:30-5:00 PM<br />

Salon IV<br />

<strong>NABE</strong> BUSINESS MEETING<br />

Meet the new <strong>NABE</strong> board of directors and the<br />

roundtable officers. Learn what <strong>NABE</strong> has accomplished<br />

over the past year and help plan for the future.<br />

5:00-6:30 PM<br />

Garden Terrace<br />

<strong>NABE</strong> PRESIDENT’S WELCOME RECEPTION<br />

Program sponsor: Americans for the Arts<br />

7:00-9:00 PM<br />

National Press Club, 13th Floor Ballroom<br />

DINNER HONORING <strong>NABE</strong>’S PAST PRESIDENTS<br />

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, <strong>NABE</strong> President, presiding<br />

Chris Varvares, <strong>NABE</strong> Vice President, introductions<br />

Jeffrey Sachs, The Earth Institute at Columbia University<br />

Copies of Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded<br />

Planet by Jeffrey Sachs compliments of Medley Global<br />

Advisors. The dinner is sponsored in part by<br />

Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. The National Press Club<br />

is at 529 14th St. NW, one-half block north of the<br />

hotel. Advance registration required.<br />

Sunday, October 5, 2008<br />

SKILLS SESSIONS<br />

9:30-10:30 AM<br />

Salon II<br />

FINANCIAL ENGINEERING<br />

Kevin Kliesen, Federal Reserve Bank of<br />

St. Louis, presiding<br />

Erik Heitfield, Federal Reserve Board<br />

9


10:45-11:45 AM<br />

Salon II<br />

PROFESSIONAL PRESENCE AND<br />

NONVERBAL COMMUNICATION<br />

Lynn Reaser, Bank of America, presiding<br />

Kay Wortman, Kay Wortman, Inc.<br />

12:00-1:30 PM<br />

LUNCHEON<br />

Salon I<br />

Sara Johnson, Global Insight, presiding<br />

Lawrence Summers, Harvard University;<br />

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary<br />

Sponsor: Global Insight<br />

1:45-3:15 PM<br />

ECONOMIC POLICY DEBATE<br />

Salon II<br />

Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors<br />

of America, introductions<br />

Steve Liesman, CNBC, and Judy Woodruff,<br />

The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer, moderators<br />

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Adviser to Senator McCain<br />

TBD, Adviser to Senator Obama<br />

Sponsor: Associated General Contractors of America<br />

3:15-3:45 PM<br />

NETWORKING BREAK<br />

Salon DE<br />

Sponsor: Greenwood and Associates<br />

3:45-4:45 PM<br />

CONCURRENT SESSIONS 1<br />

A. The Role of Free Trade in Controlling<br />

Health Care Costs<br />

Salon G<br />

Devon Herrick, National Center for Policy<br />

Analysis/HERT Chair, presiding<br />

Michael Horowitz, Medical Insights International<br />

Renee-Marie Stephano, Medical Tourism Association<br />

Sponsor: <strong>NABE</strong> Health Economics Roundtable<br />

B. “Peak Oil” and the Global Energy Challenge<br />

Salon II<br />

Howard K. Gruenspecht, U.S. Energy Information<br />

Administration, presiding<br />

Guy F. Caruso, CSIS<br />

Mark J. Finley, BP America, Inc.<br />

Fareed Mohamedi, PFC Energy<br />

Sponsor: BP<br />

Organized by the <strong>NABE</strong> Regional Utility Roundtable<br />

C. China and India: Challenges<br />

to their Growth<br />

Salon F<br />

Stuart Mackintosh, The Group of Thirty, presiding<br />

Kulpana Kochhar, International Monetary Fund<br />

Wei Li, Darden School of Business, University<br />

of Virginia<br />

Sponsor: <strong>NABE</strong> International Roundtable<br />

5:00-5:30 PM<br />

PERSPECTIVES ON THE LONG-TERM<br />

INVESTMENT CLIMATE<br />

Salon II<br />

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Ford Motor Company, presiding<br />

Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs<br />

6:00-7:30 PM<br />

RECEPTION<br />

Embassy of the People’s Republic of China<br />

in the United States<br />

Buses will begin boarding at 5:30 PM from the<br />

Pennsylvania Avenue exit of the JW Marriott hotel. The<br />

Embassy address is 2300 Connecticut Avenue Northwest.<br />

Buses will begin departing from the Embassy for the JW<br />

Marriott hotel at 7:15 PM.<br />

7:45-9:30 PM<br />

<strong>NABE</strong> SMALL GROUP DINNERS<br />

We’ll gather for the small group dinners in the lobby<br />

of the JW Marriott hotel between 7:30 and 7:45 PM.<br />

Restaurant address and other details are in your<br />

registration packet.<br />

10<br />

11


Monday, October 6, 2008<br />

7:00-7:45 AM<br />

Salon DE<br />

CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST<br />

Sponsors: Swedbank and Wolters Kluwer<br />

8:00-9:15 AM<br />

Salon II<br />

THE NEW DYNAMICS OF GLOBALIZATION<br />

Sara B. Potter, CFA, FactSet Research Systems,<br />

introduction<br />

Catherine L. Mann, Brandeis University and Peterson<br />

Institute for International Economics, presiding<br />

Edmund Phelps, Columbia University (Nobel Prize in<br />

Economics, 2006)<br />

Paul Krugman, Princeton University<br />

Sponsor: FactSet Research Systems<br />

9:30-10:15 AM<br />

Salon II<br />

<strong>NABE</strong> OUTLOOK<br />

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, <strong>NABE</strong> President/<br />

Ford Motor Company, presiding<br />

Chris Varvares, <strong>NABE</strong> Vice President/Macroeconomic<br />

Advisers, LLC<br />

Sponsor: CNBC<br />

10:15-10:45 AM<br />

Salon DE<br />

NETWORKING BREAK<br />

Sponsors: Haver Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC<br />

10:45-11:45 AM<br />

Salon II<br />

LESSONS OF THE GREAT CREDIT<br />

CRUNCH OF 2007-08<br />

Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International<br />

Economics, presiding<br />

Henry Kaufman, Henry Kaufman & Company<br />

Martin Neil Baily, The Brookings Institution<br />

William Poole, Former President, Federal Reserve Bank<br />

of St. Louis<br />

Sponsor: Morgan Le Fay Dreams Foundation<br />

Organized by the <strong>NABE</strong> Financial Roundtable<br />

12:00-1:30 PM<br />

Salon III & IV<br />

LUNCHEON<br />

THE FUTURE OF MORTGAGE FINANCE<br />

Richard Brown, Federal Deposit Insurance<br />

Corporation, presiding<br />

Sheila C. Bair, Chairman, Federal Deposit<br />

Insurance Corporation<br />

1:45-2:45 PM<br />

CONCURRENT SESSIONS 2<br />

A. Human Capital<br />

Salon II<br />

Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial, presiding<br />

John Tarnaff, Dreamworks Animation<br />

Linda Barrington, The Conference Board<br />

Sponsor: Mesirow Financial<br />

B. Innovation and Its Measurement<br />

in the 21st Century<br />

Salon F<br />

Sydney Smith Hicks, <strong>NABE</strong> Corporate Planning<br />

Roundtable Chair, presiding<br />

Christopher L. Magee, Massachusetts Institute<br />

of Technology<br />

Joseph Kennedy, Economic Statistics Administration,<br />

U.S. Department of Commerce<br />

Sponsor: <strong>NABE</strong> Technology and Corporate<br />

Planning Roundtables<br />

C. U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance<br />

Salon G<br />

Thomas Kevin Swift, American Chemistry<br />

Council, presiding<br />

Ted Chu, General Motors Corporation<br />

James Meil, Eaton Corporation<br />

Thomas Davis, Motorola, Inc.<br />

Sponsor: American Chemistry Council<br />

Organized by the <strong>NABE</strong> Manufacturing Roundtable<br />

12<br />

13


3:00-3:30 PM<br />

Salon II<br />

<strong>NABE</strong> PRESIDENT ADDRESS<br />

Chris Varvares, <strong>NABE</strong> Vice President/<br />

Macroeconomic Advisers, presiding<br />

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, <strong>NABE</strong> President/<br />

Ford Motor Company<br />

3:30-4:00 PM<br />

Salon DE<br />

NETWORKING BREAK<br />

Sponsor: CEIC Data<br />

4:00-5:00 PM<br />

Salon II<br />

LONG-TERM FISCAL OUTLOOK<br />

David Wessel, The Wall Street Journal, presiding<br />

Laurence Kotlikoff, Boston University<br />

Peter Orszag, Congressional Budget Office<br />

Sponsor: Altarum<br />

5:30-7:00 PM<br />

RECEPTION<br />

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation<br />

The FDIC address is 515 17th Street Northwest.<br />

Please plan to walk or take a taxi on your own.<br />

Walking maps at <strong>NABE</strong> registration desk.<br />

Tuesday, October 7, 2008<br />

7:30-9:00 AM<br />

Salon I & II<br />

BREAKFAST<br />

A VIEW FROM THE ADMINISTRATION<br />

Lynn Reaser, Bank of America, introduction<br />

Edward Lazear, Chairman, Council of<br />

Economic Advisers<br />

Note: Breakfast service ends at 7:45 AM.<br />

9:00-10:00 AM<br />

Salon FG<br />

ADAM SMITH ADDRESS<br />

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, <strong>NABE</strong> President/<br />

Ford Motor Company, presiding<br />

Michael Mussa, Peterson Institute for<br />

International Economics<br />

Sponsor: ISI Group<br />

10:00-10:30 AM<br />

Salon DE<br />

NETWORKING BREAK<br />

Sponsor: American Farm Bureau Federation<br />

10:30-11:15 AM<br />

Salon FG<br />

DATING BUSINESS CYCLES<br />

Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research<br />

Institute, introduction<br />

Harvey Rosenblum, Federal Reserve Bank<br />

of Dallas, presiding<br />

Robert Hall, National Bureau of Economic Research<br />

and Stanford University<br />

Sponsor: Economic Cycle Research Institute<br />

11:30-12:15 PM<br />

Salon FG<br />

CHALLENGES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY<br />

Gene Huang, FedEx Corporation, presiding<br />

John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director,<br />

International Monetary Fund<br />

Sponsor: FedEx Corporation<br />

12:30-2:00 PM<br />

Salon I & II<br />

LUNCHEON<br />

A VIEW FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE<br />

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, <strong>NABE</strong> President, presiding<br />

Ben Bernanke, Chairman, Federal Reserve Board<br />

Sponsor: Bank of America<br />

2:15-3:15 PM<br />

Commerce<br />

GET CONNECTED PLANNING MEETING<br />

14<br />

15


UPCOMING<br />

<strong>NABE</strong> EVENTS<br />

October 27-30, 2008<br />

Advanced Statistical Techniques<br />

for Economic Forecasting<br />

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco<br />

San Francisco, California<br />

Sponsored by the <strong>NABE</strong> Foundation<br />

March 1-3, 2009<br />

Washington Economic Policy Conference<br />

Key Bridge Marriott Hotel<br />

Across the Potomac from Georgetown<br />

Arlington, Virginia<br />

October 10-13, 2009<br />

51 st <strong>NABE</strong> Annual Meeting<br />

Hyatt Regency St. Louis Riverfront<br />

St. Louis, Missouri<br />

National Association<br />

for Business Economics<br />

1233 20th St NW Ste 505<br />

Washington, DC 20036<br />

202-463-6223 202-463-6239 (fax)<br />

nabe@nabe.com www.nabe.com

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