Jerome Delli Priscoli, PH.D - National Waterways Conference

Human and Economic Uses of Water
National waterways Conference
Ft Worth, TX
September 19‐21 2011
Dr. Jerome Delli Priscoli
‐ BOG World Water Council
– Institute for Water Resources USACE
– Editor in Chief ‐Water Policy
Jerome.dellipriscoli@usace.army.mil
Priscoli@erols.com
MILLENIUM DEV GOALS

TWO STORIES

Imagine a Place Where:
• 94% of property owners/98% of tenants have no electricity
• 30% of owners/41% of tenants no toilets or outhouses
• 65% of owners/ 78% of tenants must go 300 yards for water
• 8% owners/3% tenants owned radios
• Less the 50% of owners/25% tenants read newspapers
• Less then 26% of owners/16% tenants own cars or trucks
• Over 60% of the horsepower required was from horses/ 6% from electric
stations
• More then 90% have no lighting
• More then 90% no refrigeration –thus loss of more then 25% of meat
• Most live on subsistence farming
• Over used ruined soil
• Flooding serious and repetitive to soil and cities
THIS IS NOT A PART OF AFRICA TODAY
–IT IS THE TENNESSE VALLEY IN 1935

In a Generation ++
• $224 million flood damages prevented
– in Tenn valley –Ohio ‐ Miss rivers each year
• $4.9 billion flood damages prevented in Chattanooga
• $5.4 Billion in whole valley
• Literacy almost 100%
• Life expectancy in 70’s – small pox, malaria, typhoid gone
• Industrial production up over 500% ‐vibrant silicon valley industry
• Almost 700 miles of navigable water links to sea
• Tonnage increased from 32 million ton‐miles in 1933 to 161 million
ton‐miles in 1942.
• Innovations in soil conservation,
integrated watershed management,
land use, non‐structural FC, other areas
• Median incomes at national levels

Columbia River

Water Ways &Establishing National Federal
Interventions Over Interstate Issues
1808: Gallatin Report
Waterways to be used for:
Building Political Unity and Nation
National Defense
Economic Development
Marshal
Gibbons
Ogden
1824: GIBBONS VS. OGDEN
(Estbl. Federal Powers vs. States)
Claims are said to be repugnant–
1st. To that clause in the constitution which
authorizes Congress to regulate commerce.
2d. To that which authorizes Congress to
promote the progress of science and useful arts.
1920’s -“308” Reports: Congress Authorizes USACE do Comp.
assessments of all major rivers of the US

Lyndon Johnson,
The Creator of U.S. War On Poverty
On: Water, Role of Government,
Water and Poverty, His Public Achievements
Breaking the Cycle of Poverty
Platform for Growth
“Of all the endeavors on which I have worked
In public life, I am proudest of the accomplishments
In developing the Colorado River. It is not the damming
of the stream or the harnessing of the Floods in which
I take pride. But rather in the ending of the waste of the
region. The region – so unproductive in my youth - Is now
a vital part of the national economy and potential. More
important, the wastage of human resources in the whole
region. Has been reduced. Men and women have been
released From the waste of drudgery and toil against the
Unyielding rocks of the Texas hills. This is the true
fulfillment of the true responsibilities of government”
(Lyndon Johnson 1958)
Water and People
Mutli purposes

Key Lessons
• Key to socio‐economic growth Building a minimum level
of basic infrastructure development (for transport,
hydroelectricity, flood and drought control, irrigation, water supply).
Questions:
• Need for multipurpose projects (i.e. power generation, flood &
drought control, water supply, malaria eradication, promotion of improved
Is this IWRM?
farming techniques, access to credit)
Can IWRM be Done w/o
Importance of hydropower as a source of cheap electricity
• Short‐term financing via government or other reliable
resources. Infrastructure?
• Medium to long‐term financing can be privately managed,
using cross‐subsidies (i.e. between power and irrigation components)
• Local decentralized IWRM not planning just technical
projects respond to needs
and better implementation
IWRM includes political message

2. Context:
World Water
Situation

Poor and Privatization
• Of the 100 recent cases ‐ 80% in
middle income countries
• A few International companies
4‐5
• The Poor pay far higher % of
income:
– $1/cm ‐ $2.50/cm on average
– In US we pay $.30 ‐ $.80 on
average
– Connected poor pay $1/cm &
unconnected $5.50‐$16.50/cm!
Cochambamba Bolivia
Increased Urbanization

7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
Reservoir Storage per Capita (m3/cap), 2003
4,717
3,386
2,486
38
1,104 1,277
687
5,961
South Africa
Mexico
Thailand
China
Brazil
Australia
North America
Ethiopia
World Bank

TYPE AND DISTRIBUTION OF DISASTERS
Type of water-related natural
disasters, 1990-2001
Distribution of water-related
disasters, 1990-2001
More than 2,200 major and minor water‐related disasters occurred in the
world between 1990 and 2001. Asia and Africa were the most affected
continents, with floods accounting for half of these disasters.
Extracted from the Executive Summary of the World Water Development report. CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). 2002.
The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Brussels, Université Catholique de Louvain.

3. Water Infrastructure
Investment Matters
•Can be correlations between
capital investment in water and
movements in private sector productivity
•Investing in Managing Uncertainty Creates
Platform for Growth
•Ratio of non-structural/behavioral measures to
structural measures matters:
•If too high - extreme events can crack social
system as leaders have no tools to respond
•If too low - ecological costs are too high
Myth of Soft Path = More Democratic

AFRICA
Adaptive Security Matrix
First-Order Resource Availability Expressed as Freshwater
Availability in 1998 m 3 /cap/yr -1 X 10 3
28 Namibia
26
24
22
20
Congo DR
18
16
Angola
14
Mozambique
12
Zambia
10
9
Adaptively Insecure
Botswana
8
7
Tanzania
Malawi
Eritrea
6
Sudan
5
Swaziland
4
Uganda
3
Lesotho
Ethiopia
2
Zimbabwe
Kenya
1
Egypt
Burundi
Water Insecure Water Secure
Adaptively Secure
Mauritius
South Africa
©Turton & Warner, 2002.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Second-Order Resource Availability Expressed as GNP PPP for
1998 in US$/cap/yr -1 X 10 3

Average Income levels and irrigation intensity in India
“Poverty is worst Polluter…” Gandhi
China: 30 years
•0 growth in Irrigation water use
•Increase effectiveness by 8 million hectares
•Increase grain yield by 50%
Water Resources in China, MWR.www.waterpub.com.cn
Net effect: districts with:
• < 10% of cropped area irrigated --- 69% below poverty line
• > 50% of cropped area irrigated --- 26% below poverty line

Economy‐wide impacts
15.0
3.0
Real GDP growth (%)
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Real GDP grow th (%)
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
-10.0
Years
Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978‐1993
-4.0
percentage
80
60
40
20
0
-20
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Ethiopia’s….limited ability to cope with droughts and floods….are
25
estimated to cost the economy one‐third of its growth potential
20
(IWMI, Water Policy Brief, Issue 31, 2009)
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-40
-15
rainfall variation around the mean
-20
-60
GDP growth
-25
-80
-30
year
Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982‐2000

700
600
Billion $
% GDP
14
12
Losses %
GDP
400
300
10
8
Economic
Losses
200
6
100
4
0
Richest Nations
Poorest Nations
2
0
Disasters Losses, Total and as Share of GDP, In the
Richest and Poorest Nations, 1985 – 99 (world watch 2001)

Emerging Nations

Figure 5
Benefits of Federal Projects (Damages Prevented)
Accumulative Corps Expenditures (Principle plus O&M)
$800
Billions of Dollars (Adjusted to 1999 using Construction Cost Index)
$700
Billionsof Dollars
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
1928
$1 spent = $6 return
Accumulative Benefits
Accumulative Expenditures
Annual Benefits
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
1999
Fiscal Year
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
National Flood Damages Suffered
•Impairment to Human activity and Creativity is key;
0.6
0.5
• not just # Trigger Events: (e.g. Damage % of GDP…)
0.4
Percent of GNP
1903
1907
1911
1915
1919
1923
1927
1931
1935
1939
1943
1947
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
Year
1991
1995

Flood damage and flood control investment
in Japan
Casual t i es and mi ssi ng peeaons ( number )
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Casual i t i es and Mi ssings
Damage
Fl ood cont r ol i nvest ment
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Damage, Fl ood cont r ol i nvest ment (bi l l i on yen)
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
0
1987 – 2001 $36 Billion in FD prevented – Spent $32 Billion

GAP ‐ SE Anatolia
REGIONWIDE CHANGES 1985-2000
1985 2000 Turkey 2000
(%) (%) (%)
RURAL WATER SUPPLY 57 60
URBAN WATER SUPPLY 15 65
RURAL ELECTRICITY 66 99
VILLAGE ACCESS 71 98
LITERACY 55 69
INFANT MORTALITY (%0) 111 60
LANDLESS POPULATION* 40 ** 25
75
73
99
99
85.1
35.3
25
* Irrıgable areas
** 1995 figures

Water Actions as Key Societal
Adaptation Tools
Investment in Water Infrastructure, IWRM, Flood Management
Water Security (small s)
Minimum Platform for Growth
Internal Stability
and Security (large S)
Strategic
Security

4. The Changing Terms of Discourse on World
Water

Climate Change Policy
Political Dialogue of Ministers from DC’s‐LDC’s‐TC’S
(August 2008 IWA and WWW)
. Developed countries are more
Best No regret
likely to think of environment and
Practises
security in terms of global
Climate
proofing
Developed
environmental
+
changes
+
and
+
countries developing countries more with
Countries the human + security implications +/- of -
in
local and regional problems
Transition
ODA + -/+ -

Pakistan Floods 2010
Social Stability, Relative Deprivation, Political Unity, Security
“Every dimension of our
Relationship ‐politics, economics and
Security……..is going to see major
Shifts as a result of this historic disaster…”
(U.S. White House, coordinator for Afgh &Pak, Aug 23, 2010)
“..instead of forging unity, the
Disaster seems to have deepened age‐old
fissures…in ways that could incite strife….the
four provinces are engaged in cut throat battles
for shares of flood aid money….well Risk connected
accused of diverting flood waters to save their
own property..flood refuges stream to the city
Karachi…”
(Wash Post p.A8 Sept 11, 2010)
1/5 of country covered
10 million homeless
>21 million people affected
Many Quick to Say‐ “Climate Change”
BUT
An event of (P) 50 yr. return rate!
Why –such a big Impact? (Ec. Growth but no Inv. in
Reduction)
How many more such places are there in the World?

Ethics of Adaptation vs. Mitigation:
Raising anxiety with change while denying means to cope?
• Main Triggers used to build human concerns on climate
change are water related (Droughts; Floods; Storm Surges..)
Ethical Dilemma of Climate Change Policy and Water
•
Climate,
Traditional
water
concerns
and security
of Water
debates
Managers:
are
Managing
raising
Variability
public
to Decrease Vulnerability: Why Humans became Engineers
anxiety about Change while inadvertently denying adaptive
means (water investments) to cope with projected events;
• Investment in managing variability is key to Creating Platform
thus for raising Socio‐Economic questions Transformation about the ethics + Breaking of adaptation Cycles of vs.
Poverty +achieving small “s”
mitigation
• Water actions have been key Social actions for society's to
adapt to variability in nature and climate

Nature's Destruction to Nature
(or is it Creation)
Who Gave God the Permit for this?
Are We allowed to
Protect Ourselves?
Part of nature?
Separate from nature?
Not Preservation?
Not Restoration?
We are in a process of
Co Design

New Rhetoric ‐ Language (+ & ‐)
• Sustainable Development
– As Venue of Dialog: increase space for dialog
– As Analytical:
• Reductio ad absurdum…?
• Sustainable (de facto) = no change or minimum
change
• Dev. = Change
• SD = no change –change …!!
• Adaptive Management
– Brings focus to design performance criteria
– Ecologists challenged to dev indicators
– Emphasizes feedback into DM
– Pushes us to conscious choice of end

New Rhetoric ‐ Language
• Precautionary Principle
– Not to decide is a decision with impacts since nature is
changing (w/o Case)
– So ‐ Ethics of no decision in face of needing to decide?
– How much must we know to decide – 100% , 90%, 80%... ?
– If believe we never know all complex interactions can PP
be ethical?
– Or is PP actually a norm for no action, minimum action,
stasis, no risk..?

5. CONCLUSIONS
• Identify Priority Areas of U.S. Security concerns
Ask: “How can Water Actions be Used as Means to Achieve
Security Ends in Each Priority Area?”
• Move Beyond Humanitarian Assistance
Ask: “How can we work to prevent and
reduce vulnerability to Disasters?”
•Moved from Preservation to an Age of Co‐Design Humans and Nature
Our Rhetoric needs to Catch Up
• Move Beyond Environment Alone and Ask:
“How to use water to create platform for growth while
designing mitigation cost to environment?”

Conclusions (con.)
•Water talk grows but funding of tools to
monitor/measure its behavior are reducing!
•Most people live in places where the water comes
only for a small % of year; a trend that is increasing:
means Infrastructure and storage

Conclusions (con.)
•How we decide on risk and water are central to the health of
democratic political culture and individual freedom; need for the
public to define and actively choose vs. passively accept
management levels risks of the hydrograph extremes (floods and
droughts).
•All wealthy countries have managed to flatten the peaks and lows
(floods and droughts) of hydrograph as a necessary preconditions
to socio‐economic growth through water investments; the trend is
to keep damages as percentage of GDP at around 5%; but for much
of the poor countries this relationship is a socially and politically
untenable trend at 25% ‐30%

A Story
Imagine it is the sixth century, Rome has fallen,
you are living in what we call today southern France…..
It could happen here: it has happened other civilizations thru history

Water management (and water reform) is
ALWAYS political…..
Ancient Chinese Characters describing water
management
+
=
river
+ dike
=
Political
order