south-asian-militant-groups-and-global-jihad-in-2015

QUILL IAM
FOREWORD
2015 has been a tumultuous year for Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India. Al
Qaeda’s position as the most feared global jihadist network has been
usurped by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, who have claimed to
have formed the Islamic State (IS). Although Al Qaeda has expanded into
India with the launch of a new branch, Al Qaeda in the Indian
Subcontinent (AQIS), assessments of its strength vary, with some
analysts arguing it will lose recruiting ground to IS. That said, the threat
that AQIS presents in Pakistan and Afghanistan remains significant, less
in terms of sheer fighting capacity, and more in terms of its stature as an
ideological banner, propaganda arm, trainer, mediator, and dispenser of
the “global jihadist narrative” or “global jihad”. IS’ gradual encroachment
into South Asia can be considered in similar terms.
In December 2014, NATO formally ended combat operations in
Afghanistan, transferring full security responsibility to the Afghan
government. The war came to an official, yet ambiguous conclusion.
Although the majority of NATO-led International Security Assistance
Force (ISAF) troops will withdraw, a mission titled Resolute Support,
also led by NATO, will see 12,000 troops remain in a non-combat role.
Furthermore, although the new Government of National Unity, led by
President Ashraf Ghani and CEO (of Afghanistan) Abdullah Abdullah,
shows signs of greater willingness to work with its neighbours to combat
regional terrorism than that of President Ghani’s predecessor, President
Hamid Karzai, its potential was hampered for several months by
difficulties in forming a Cabinet. While the possibility of negotiations
with the Taliban is not yet off the table for President Ghani, incentives to
talk will depend on them being prevented from gaining the upper hand
in military affairs after the ISAF withdrawal. In 2015, two rounds of
informal talks between the Taliban and representatives of the civil
society may improve confidence in President Ghani’s Government of
National Unity.
Meanwhile Pakistan is reeling from the Pakistani Taliban’s attack on a
military-run school in December 2014 that left 146 people, most of
which were children, dead. This was the deadliest attack that the
Pakistani Taliban have ever committed. Nevertheless, there are high
hopes that this attack will mark a turning point in Pakistan’s history of
selectively tolerating militant groups. This would be a key step in
ensuring durable regional peace. However, not only does this depend on
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