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sudan - International Crisis Group

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Darfur’s New Security Reality<br />

<strong>Crisis</strong> <strong>Group</strong> Africa Report N°134, 26 November 2007 Page 2<br />

2005 to end the primarily North-South war has further<br />

complicated attempts to negotiate a settlement. As<br />

Darfur’s challenges change, international responses must<br />

adapt to the new situation on the ground.<br />

The surge in violence, the proliferation of armed groups<br />

and the difficulties emerging around the talks pose<br />

enormous challenges to the peace process. This report<br />

analyses the new dynamics and recommends measures<br />

the AU/UN facilitation and national, regional and wider<br />

international actors should take to address the root causes<br />

of the conflict and find durable solutions to end the<br />

violence.<br />

II. EVOLVING CONFLICT DYNAMICS<br />

Previously, the main conflict axis was between the<br />

government (and its related militia) and the non-Arab tribes<br />

of Darfur but new disputes over land and power have<br />

resulted in Arab-on-Arab clashes and the seeds for potential<br />

Arab insurgencies. Arab tribes have started to create new<br />

ties with non-Arabs; some have even joined or created<br />

Arab-led rebel groups. The IDP camps, housing over two<br />

million Darfurians, are becoming increasingly violent, and<br />

IDPs are being manipulated by all parties.<br />

A. THE RISE IN ARAB-ARAB CONFLICT<br />

Many Arab tribes in Darfur, particularly the camel herders,<br />

feel they have been used in recent years by the NCP and,<br />

now that the prospect of a stronger peacekeeping force is<br />

real, Khartoum intends to abandon them or sell them out.<br />

In the absence of a solution that deals with their grievances,<br />

they believe they have only two choices: either continue<br />

fighting a proxy war, subjecting themselves to confrontation<br />

with the international community, or distance themselves<br />

from the NCP and engage with the international community.<br />

No matter their choice, all tribes are concerned about<br />

cementing their gains from the last years of war before<br />

the peacekeepers arrive.<br />

These gains include wealth in the form of expropriated<br />

land, military hardware and ammunition, vehicles, and<br />

political influence. They want their claims to occupied<br />

land legitimised, either through the establishment of new<br />

localities, or by being given an independent Native<br />

Administration recognised by local laws. 5 They also<br />

demand payment: according to a senior Janjaweed militia<br />

commander in Nyala, the Arab tribes deserve to be<br />

rewarded for all they have done in fighting the rebellion.<br />

They believe that if there is a peace deal, development<br />

and reconstruction money will be directed only toward<br />

5 This could include gaining Nizara (chiefdom) status for<br />

themselves and Umudiya (sub-chiefdom) status for their Arab kin<br />

who have arrived in the last two years from West Africa (Niger,<br />

Burkina Faso, Chad). A Darfur member of the National Council<br />

said in the media that the NCP has resettled some 7,000 West<br />

African families in Darfur with immediate citizenship. These<br />

groups have strong kinship with the Northern Rizeigat of Darfur,<br />

particularly Musa Hilal’s clan. <strong>Crisis</strong> <strong>Group</strong> interview, July 2007.<br />

Also relevant is the influx of 30,000-40,000 presumably Chadian<br />

Arabs in 2007. According to the UN High Commissioner for<br />

Refugees (UNHCR), these are mostly Arab nomadic and seminomadic<br />

tribes fleeing general insecurity and armed violence<br />

directed at them. Some have said local Sudanese leaders have told<br />

them to take land formerly settled by IDPs. UNHCR has<br />

recommended Sudan recognise them as refugees on a prima facie<br />

basis and clarify land ownership issues. UNHCR briefing,<br />

7 August 2007.

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