The phenomenological solar effect on climate - Acrim.com

<strong>The</strong> <strong>phenomenological</strong> <strong>solar</strong> <strong>effect</strong> on climate2007 AGU Fall Meeting(13 December 2007)San FranciscoNicola ScafettaPhysics Department,Duke UniversityBruce J. WestArmy Research OfficeN. Scafetta & B.J. West,N. Scafetta & B.J. West,J. Geophys. Research (2007).Geophys. Res. Lett. (2006).Geophys. Res. Lett. (2005).Phys. Rev. E 69, 026303 (2004).Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 248701 (2003).

GLOBAL WARMINGa disrupted debateDATA ARE UNCERTAIN and DEBATED1) direct Global Surface Temperature data are available since 18502) direct Total Solar Irradiance data are available since 1978THEORETICAL AND PROXY MODELS ARE POOR1) Climate models are known to be incomplete2) Total Solar Irradiance models are incomplete as wellSTRONG HISTORICAL SCIENTIFIC “BIAS”In late 1800s scientists vigorously supported the idea of aconstant Sunand, so, the concept of <strong>solar</strong> constant was introduced.

Understanding Climate is an inverseproblem Different models might apparently fit the data. Models depend on the past and actual (notthe future) scientific-cultural cultural environment inwhich they are produced. Scientific bias might play a major role in theengineering modeling processes. Models believed to be correct are used tomake predictions. Prediction might indeed be based on bias!!!!

Correlation between <strong>solar</strong> and climate recordsEddy J.A. (1976), <strong>The</strong> MaunderMinimum, Science 192, 1189-1202.Cosmic ray protons blast nuclei in the upper atmosphere, producing neutrons which in turnbombard nitrogen, the major constituent of the atmosphere . This neutron bombardment producesthe radioactive isotope carbon-14. Cosmic ray are modulated by <strong>solar</strong> wind.

IPCC 2007N+A FsN Fs

IPCC 2007Since 1750 “anthropogenic forcing” has been 13 times larger thatthe <strong>solar</strong> forcing.?? IS IT TRUE ??

Topology of the climate system according to the IPCC modelsVolcano

A Realistic Topology of the Climate System

A Realistic Topology of the Climate System

<strong>The</strong> topological structure of the climate modelscurrently available is too simplistic!Ice core data prove the existence of several GHGfeedback mechanisms.<strong>The</strong> overall feedback is positive.Once that all mechanisms are included in the modelsthe expectation is that the <strong>solar</strong> <strong>effect</strong> on climate will be foundmuch stronger than the current estimateand the anthropogenic <strong>effect</strong> will be reduced.?? HOW MUCH ??

IPCC 2007Mann and Jones 20030.2K0.65KMoberg et al 2005

Three different TSI proxy reconstructions since 1610 by Lean et al.MaunderMinimumDaltonMinimum3.51.2

Willson, R. C., and A. V. Mordvinov (2003), Secular total <strong>solar</strong> irradiance trend during <strong>solar</strong> cycles 21-23, Geophys. Res. Lett.,30(5)˫Frohlich C. and J. Lean (1998), <strong>The</strong> Sun's total irradiance: Cycles, trends and related climate change uncertainties since 1976, GRL.

Climate model approach:1) TSI defines TSI forcing.2) TSI forcing stimulates some TSI feedbacks predefined in the model.direct <strong>solar</strong> forcing + all <strong>solar</strong> feedbacks = total <strong>solar</strong> <strong>effect</strong>Conclusion:weaker TSI forcing = weaker feedbacks = weaker total <strong>solar</strong> <strong>effect</strong>Climate Phenomenological approach:1) Temperature record shows a <strong>solar</strong> signature.2) Solar signature on climate defines the total <strong>solar</strong> <strong>effect</strong> on climatetotal <strong>solar</strong> <strong>effect</strong> = direct <strong>solar</strong> forcing + all <strong>solar</strong> feedbacksConclusion:Two methods, two philosophiestotal <strong>solar</strong> <strong>effect</strong> is unaltered, thusweaker TSI forcing = stronger feedbacks

A PhenomenologicalSun-Climate Coupling Modeld∆Tsdt( t)α ∆I( t)− ∆T( t)=sτSolar InputN. Scafetta & BJ West,J. Geophys Research (2007).Geophys. Res. Lett. (2006).Geophys. Res. Lett. (2005).EarthClimateSystemSolar-InducedTemperatureOutput

CLIMATE RESPONSE to the 11-YEAR SOLAR CYCLEIPCC 2007, page 674

Climate sensitivity of the earth to <strong>solar</strong> irradianceWhite et al. JGR 1998.Douglass & Clader, GRL 29(16), 2002.Scafetta &West, GRL, 32 2005.A(11year cycle) = 0.1 K

Energy Balance Model SimulationHigh frequencies are damped11-year cycle signature is 0.03K0.03K0.03KFoukal, P., G. North, andT. Wigley (2004), A StellarView on Solar Variationsand Climate, Science, 306,68-69.

IPCC 2007 MYSTERIES??? 0.1K or 0.03K ???According to <strong>phenomenological</strong> studies the11-year <strong>solar</strong> cycle signature on the surfacetemperature is approximately 0.1KAccording to Energy Balance Model studiesthe 11-year <strong>solar</strong> cycle signature on the surfacetemperature is approximately 0.03KWhich one is right?

A <strong>phenomenological</strong>/theoreticalsimple sun-climate EBMHigh frequencies are reducedbecause of the ocean inertiad∆T( t)α ∆I( t)−∆T( t)s=sdt τα = conversion constantτ = relaxation time1) 11-year <strong>solar</strong> cycle signatureon climate during 1980-2000= 0.10 K2) pre-industrial warming3)3)5 yearsyears< τ

1600-2005 P. Solar SignatureMaximum EstimatesPSS fitspre-industrial warming+ 11-year P. SignatureR= 0.45 & 0.76 (cross-corr)˫τ = 0.0 +/− 0.9 year (2000)˫τ = 3.5 +/− 1.4 year (2005)˫0.80.18R= 0.70 & 0.87 (cross-corr)˫τ = 2.8 +/− 1.2 year (2000)˫τ = 9 +/− 3.3 year (2005)˫0.80.4Since1900

1600-2005 P. Solar Signature(with ACRIM since 1980)PSSPSSfitsfitspre-industrialpre-industrialwarmingwarming+ 11-year P. Signatureτ = 0.0 +/− 0.9 year (2000)˫τ = 3.5 +/− 1.4 year (2005)˫0.80.3τ = 2.8 +/− 1.2 year (2000)˫τ = 9 +/− 3.3 year (2005)˫0.80.56Since1900

Schwartz (2007) JGR “Heat Capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system”CORRECTED!Auto-Correlation function

TSI Proxy by Krivova, Balmaceda, Solanki,Astronomy and Astrophysics 467, 335-346 (2007).

1600-2007 P. Solar Signature to thewarming(with ACRIM or PMOD since 1978)PSS fitsτ = 8 year+ 11-year P. Signature

1600-2007 P. Solar Signature to thewarming(with ACRIM or PMOD since 1980)PSS fitsτ = 8 year+ 11-year P. SignatureComparison: 22-year temperature and PSScomponents

CONCLUSIONSIf τ min= 5 +/- 1 years or more Mann et al.'s temperature and bothis not thermodynamically consistent with the 0.1K<strong>phenomenological</strong> <strong>solar</strong> signature on climate.During the 20 th century the sun might have contributed froma minimum of 31 +/- 8 % to a maximum of 52 +/- 21 %(with Moberg's temperature) of the observed warming.(<strong>The</strong>se estimates increase of 30% if ACRIM is adopted since1978)˫<strong>The</strong> above estimates are much larger than what has beenestimated by using EBM and GCM (IPCC 2007).

High frequencies are dampedOut of EquilibriumRelaxation Effectsτ=9 years

Proxy TSI secular reconstructions using multiple <strong>solar</strong> indexesMaunderMinimumDaltonMinimumReconstructions of total <strong>solar</strong> irradiance (TSI) by Lean et al. (1995, solid red curve), Hoytand Schatten (1993, data updated by the authors to 1999, solid black curve), Solanki andFligge (1998, dotted blue curves), and Lockwood and Stamper (1999, heavy dash-dotgreen curve); the grey curve shows group sunspot numbers (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998)scaled to Nimbus-7 observations for 1979 to 1993.

Crowley, Science 289, 270-277 (2000).Red Curve (Mann et al. 1999)˫0.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.6'moberg-comb.dat'-0.81000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Green curve (Moberg et al. 2005)˫

Crowley, Science 289, 270-277 (2000).