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CHAOS: A Recipe for Success - Software and Systems Engineering

CHAOS: A Recipe for Success - Software and Systems Engineering

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Project Estimating:Lucky or LousyYogi Berra once quipped, “Predictions are hard,especially about the future”. Countless times duringfocus groups, project group therapy sessions <strong>and</strong>failure post mortems, IT executives echoed, “We didour best estimate, we doubled it, added some more,<strong>and</strong> we still missed the mark”.Project <strong>and</strong> program estimating is nothingmore than predicting the futureoutcome of a project or program.It is difficult.In this regard, there are only two kinds of estimates:“Lucky” or “Lousy”. Frequently, different peoplemake these estimates at different times usingdifferent methods. Clearly a more st<strong>and</strong>ardestimating process could generate significantimprovements.One must be realistic; there isno such thing as a reliableestimate. Learning to workbetter with poor estimatesrather than developing betterestimating techniques iscrucial. Nevertheless, projectmanagers who recognize theirlimitations can use some<strong>for</strong>mal estimating tools <strong>and</strong>these tools can greatlyimprove their luck.Many tools offer acombination of statistical <strong>and</strong>judgment <strong>for</strong>ecasts. Thesetools combined with aniterative process developmentstyle enable a projectmanager to react correctly tothe changing programenvironment. Thus, theestimating process itself is iterative through thelife of the project. This will give little com<strong>for</strong>tto the financial officer trying to decide onfunding the project in the first place. It isimperative to know if there is a kill switch <strong>and</strong>how it gets pulled.COPYRIGHT ©19999THE STANDISH GROUP INTERNATIONAL, INC.

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