Taking new steps in Mediterranean climate research - Medclivar

Taking new steps inMediterranean climate researchProfessor Piero Lionello outlines the dedicated work of the scientific network MedCLIVAR as itstrives towards improving investigation of climate variability and change in the MediterraneanMEDCLIVARTo begin, could you outline the main aimsand objectives of MedCLIVAR?MedCLIVAR is a research network whichaims to coordinate and promote the studyof the Mediterranean climate. It is supportedby the European Science Foundation andendorsed by CLIVAR. MedCLIVAR’s scientificpriorities are: description of past climateevolution; assessment of climate variability;understanding the mechanisms responsiblefor it; identifying trends and providingclimate prediction in relation to futureemission scenarios.Medclivar is an independent platform forthe exchange of information and scientificdiscussion, it favours cooperation amongprojects and institutions, and provides a linkamong the existing initiatives that are carryingout research on the Mediterranean climate.How is the programme assessing climatevariability at different space and timescales?The scientific community has the capabilityof addressing those various scales and issues.Integration is the key strategic point andmodellers are the pivot of the process. We needpaleoclimatologists to integrate their proxieswith model simulations, hydrologists to matchtheir resolution requirement with what climatemodels can provide and the impact studies(on ecosystems, agriculture, water resources,tourism to name a few important examples) toaccount for uncertainties of model projections.This is an ongoing process that MedCLIVAR, asa main scientific network, is promoting.What does the Mediterranean region tellus about other sensitive areas affected byclimate change?In my view, there are strong limits in analogieson climate change among different regionsand addressing the regional scale impliesproblems and processes that are often specificfor each area. The transfer of a global climatesignal to the regional scale follows a trackthat depends on the region and on the areas.Climate is a global problem, but regionalisationis not a homogeneous process. Critical areas,such as the Mediterranean, are importantbecause they can be used for early climatechange detection and the temperature trendin the Mediterranean is already providingthis information. But in general, exchange ofinformation among different regions is mainlyon methodology. Adaptation strategies cancertainly be transferred to different regions andit is possible to learn from solutions adoptedin other regions, but information on climatechange needs to be addressed regionally.In turn, what effect could changes in thisregion have on the global climate system?The Mediterranean region is relativelysmall and the role of regional processesis mainly to produce large spatialgradients in externally forced patterns,which would otherwise be morehomogeneous. Features such as theMediterranean storm track area consequence of morphologyand local interaction, butits variability is, to a largeextent, caused by the storm track over northEurope. However, there are critical feedbacks.The outflow of salty Mediterranean water inthe Atlantic stabilises the Atlantic thermohalinecirculation. The Mediterranean Sea is animportant source of moisture for the surroundingareas, particularly for the eastern Mediterraneancountries. Finally, because of its location, climatesignal from the Mediterranean has been shownto propagate downstream and eastwards andinfluence remote regions of the globe.The programme also studies the occurrenceof extreme events. What has your researchrevealed about the frequency and strengthof these events?There is clear evidence on increased intensityand duration of heat waves and hot days,which is part of a general trend towards hottemperatures. Until now, there is no clearevidence for significant trends of storminess(eventually most indications are for a milderregime) and of precipitation extremes, whosevariability has always been very large in thisregion and so far prevents the identificationof widespread significant trends.Expectations are for changes in precipitationextremes to become detectable in the nextdecades of this century.What challenges does predicting theresponse of the Mediterranean climate tothe increase of gases and aerosols present?Who will use the simulations of futureclimate scenarios?High spatial resolution is a crucial issue in theMediterranean region because of the complexmorphology. Present model resolution is, forinstance, quite far from the resolution thathydrologists would need for describing thesteep and small river basins in this region. Thewater cycle in all its components and regimes(including extremes) is a critical piece of theclimate regional puzzle. The Mediterraneansea level, with its large spatial variability andbehaviour quite different from that of thenearby Atlantic, is very difficult to describeon a multidecadal scale with the precisionneeded for coastal planning in low flat areas.The hope is that these challenges will begradually solved, uncertainties reduced andmanagement of the environment, includingurban areas, will be able to account forclimate change effects.WWW.RESEARCHMEDIA.EU 55

Each strategic workshop that MedCLIVARcoordinates gathers around 50 participants– mainly from European countries – toconcentrate on a particular priority related tothe Mediterranean climate.The network organised two summer schoolsduring MedCLIVAR’s third and fifth years ofoperation. These schools tackled a range ofissues through means of keynote talks, tutorialsand interactive sessions. The first of thesesummer schools, entitled ‘Climate variabilityover the Mediterranean area: Atmospheric andOceanic components’ was led by 16 tutors andattended by 54 PhD students from all overEurope and Morocco. The school’s presidingtopics included sea level and wind changes;observed changes in both atmospheric andoceanic circulation; and the management ofclimate change policy.The second school has been called ‘TheMediterranean Climate System and RegionalClimate Change’, it has been held in 2010,Miramare, Trieste, Italy. This school has coveredtopics related to the observation, understandingand modelling of the Mediterranean climatesystem, its interactions with Earth’s globalclimate, its natural variability and its responseto anthropogenic and natural forcings.MedCLIVAR’s exchange programme typicallylasted up to 18 weeks for students and 15days for senior researchers. The aim for eachprogramme was to exchange information,share data and exploit the expertise availablebetween members of the MedCLIVARnetwork. The exchange programme alsoallowed young students to gain valuableexpertise in specific areas.MedCLIVAR co-sponsors scientific meetingsand conferences, and these have led to a varietyof institutions and nations coming together toreview climate extremes, climate evolution andother such important issues.RESEARCH FOR THE FUTUREMedCLIVAR has had a positive effect on thescientific community, leading to an increase inthe sharing of information and vital educationprovided to young scientists. MedCLIVAR itselfhas even become part of that information.Every year, the network holds a session atthe European Geosciences Union (EGU)general assembly. Furthermore, severalroundtables were held to distribute newsabout MedCLIVAR activities and to advertisenew projects and initiatives. The events are cosponsoredby EGU.Although MedCLIVAR wishes to continue itsactions within the scientific community, 2011is its final year of funding from the ESF. Thenetwork plans for a final conference and a bookto be published, which will be distributed at theevent. Lionello recognises that, although theMediterranean has been exhaustively exploredin terms of climate change and MedCLIVAR hashelped significantly, there are still many aspectsof regional evolution that have not been explored.Successful networks like MedCLIVAR act as apositive example for similar and related projectsto receive grants in the future: “It is important tocontinue having streams of funding for bottomupinitiatives that do not respond to a thematiccall, but represent the free objectives of thescientific community. The success of MedCLIVARconfirms the importance of networking as a maintool for the progress of science,”.FIGURE 2. Average change insurface air temperature at theend of the 21 st Century for thefour seasons based on a multiglobal model ensemble.F Giorgi and P Lionello, (2008),Climate Change Projectionsfor the Mediterranean Region,Global and Planetary Changevol 3, pp 90-104 doi:10.1016/jgloplacha 2007.09.00INTELLIGENCEMEDCLIVARMEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE VARIABILITYAND PREDICTABILITYOBJECTIVESTo coordinate and promote research on theMediterranean climate that investigatesclimate past evolution, climate variability,the mechanisms responsible for it, climatetrends and providing climate prediction inrelation to future emission scenarios.FUNDINGEndorsed by CLIVAR and funded by theEuropean Science Foundation (ESF) throughthe following organisations:Fonds zur Förderung der WissenschaftlichenForschung, Austria • Research PromotionFoundation, Cyprus • Centre Nationalde la Recherche Scientifique/InstitutNational des Sciences de l’Univers, France• Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft,Germany • National Hellenic ResearchFoundation, Greece • Israel Academy ofSciences and Humanities, Israel • Ministerodell’Ambiente e della Tutela del Territorioe del Mare, Italy • Fundação para e Ciênciae a Tecnologia, Portugal • Consejo Superiorde Investigaciones Cientificas, Ministerio deEducacion y Ciencia, Spain • SchweizerischerNationalfonds zur Förderung derwissenschaftlichen Forschung, Switzerland• Scientific and Technical Research Councilof Turkey, Turkey • Natural EnvironmentResearch Council, UKCONTACTProfessor Piero LionelloProject CoordinatorUniversity of SalentoDepartment of Material SciencesVia per Arnesano73100 Lecce, ItalyT +39 0832 297085F +39 0832 297100E piero.lionello@unisalento.itPIERO LIONELLO has worked inenvironmental research since 1987.He is currently the coordinator of theMedCLIVAR programme and has workedin his current position as Professor at theUniversity of Salento, Italy since 1999.His present research interests focus onthe Mediterranean climate and its futureevolution, with an emphasis on marinestorminess and climate extremes.WWW.RESEARCHMEDIA.EU 57