Tourism trends for Europe.pdf

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TRAN SPORTThe car rem ains the prim ary m eans of travel for tourists– travelby car in industrialcountries accounts form ore than 70% of alltourism journeys. The culturalnecessity for car transport that has developed in m ostcountries m eans that consum ers and oilcom panies w illsearch for alternative fuels in the face of rising oilprices,w ith the result that car travelw illcontinue todom inate in the m edium and long term as w ell.For coach travel the m ain problem w illbe pressure onparking and access to city centres. Cheap air travelprices could also influence coach travelnegatively.For air travel there w illbe continuing am algam ationsbetw een long-haulcarriers,w hilst low -fare operatorsw illcontinue to seek m ore secondary destinations.The increasing costs of fuel,security and airportcharges m ay eventually slow the pace of grow th.As for rail travel,governm ent investm ent in new highspeedlines w illeventually bring low er prices,im provingservices and increasing speed.In the cruise m arket,grow ing dem and is being m et bynew and ever larger ships,but there is a lack of cruiseterm inals,particularly in the M editerranean. This islikely to lead to the developm ent of m ore term inals asdestinations strive to capitalise on m arket grow th.As in m ost tourism m arkets,how ever,they w illforgetto take account of increasing supply,leading to low erprices for cruise operators and dim inishing returns forcruise ports.For shorter trips,railw illbecom e a significantcom petitor to air travel.Discom fort encountered on long-haulflights m aycreate a dem and for a flight service in betw eeneconom y and business class.SECON D HOMES – RESIDEN TIAL TOURISMThere w illcontinue to be a grow th in the purchase ofsecond hom es for as long as there is relatively low -cost property available. This trend is being driven by araft of m edia products aim ed at w ealthy individuals w how ish to invest in property in w arm er (and cheaper)clim ates,or w ho are looking to retire or start lifestylebusinesses in other parts of Europe.To date,this trend has been dom inated by north-southm ovem ents,but the U K and Germ an m edia are now increasinglyfeaturing properties in centraland easternEurope.In the U K,the recent pensions report proposes thatentitlem ent to the state pension should be based onresidency rather than nationalinsurance contributions.This w illtend to lim it the ability of U K citizens to liveabroad and draw their state pensions,w hich m ay affectsecond hom e sales abroad.Consequences for the tourism sector:Financing the purchase of these hom es w illgenerate a grow th in the self-catering holidayrental m arkets.Consequences for the tourism sector: ‘N ew ’destinations are being created throughim proved accessibility,such as the developm entof new airports. The developm ent of budgetairlines is also changing travelpatterns inEurope very rapidly.The increased dem and for property in som edestinations w illadd to developm ent pressure,w hich in turn w illfuelcalls for lim its to newdevelopm ent in som e destinations. Therealready signs that som e m unicipalities aretrying to place lim its on retirem ent m igration.The opening of new air routes could offeropportunities to develop new visitor m arkets,but problem s w ith European regulation andcom petition m ake these m arkets relativelyvolatile.D estinations not easily accessible by direct orinter-m odaltransport system s w illsuffer.-8-
BIBLIOGRAPHYBosshart,D. & Frick,K. (2003):Trendreport B asic, M egatrends and Countertrendsfor business Society and Consum ption.U S Federal R eserve B ank Forecasts:http://w oodrow .m pls.frb.fed.us/pubs/fedgaz/04-03/65.cfmFuture Foundation Report forCendant TravelDistribution Services (2005):The W orld of Travel in 2020H annigan,J.:Fantasy City: Pleasure and Profit in the Post-m odernM etropolis N ew YorkRoutledge.M uirden,M . & M artin,B. (2004):Future Trends in Lifestyles and Leisure.Econom ics Research Associates.M unro,C. & M cM ahon-Beattie,U . (2005):Tom orrow ’s W orld,Consum er and Tourist.Journalof Vacation M arketing.N ordin,S. (2005):Tourism of Tom orrow - Travel Trends and Forecastof Change.European Tourism Research Institute.Prentice,R.C. (2006):Evocation and Experiential Seduction: U pdatingChoice-sets M odelling.Tourism M anagem ent,volum e 27.Richards,G. & W ilson,J. (2006):D eveloping Creativity in Tourist Experiences:A Solution to the Serial R eproduction of Culture ?Tourism M anagem ent,volum e 27.W orld Tourism Organization (U N W TO):Agenda 2010.W orld TravelM arket (2005):Looking into the Future of Tourism -M eeting Sum m ary and Key Conclusions.-9-
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