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<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Recommendation:<br />
BUY (-)<br />
Risk:<br />
MEDIUM (-)<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> is in the fast lane<br />
Price Target:<br />
EUR 10.50 (-)<br />
Promising growth prospects in the mid-term<br />
▪ <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> is one of Germany‟s leading information service<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>rs. The subsidiaries of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> inclu<strong>de</strong> the wholly<br />
owned PeterPays <strong>AG</strong>, 118000 Telefonvermittlung GmbH, and <strong>GoYellow</strong><br />
GmbH, 90% of which is owned by <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, with the remaining<br />
10% being held by a total of 16 German Yellow Pages publishers. The<br />
company was up to now solely engaged in the media portal business<br />
within Germany.<br />
▪ The company will launch a switchboard service using the number 118000<br />
in December 2009. At 118000, callers can get in touch with people whose<br />
contact <strong>de</strong>tails are not available on public directories. 118000 treats all<br />
data highly confi<strong>de</strong>ntially and does not forward them to third parties.<br />
Despite the promising potentials for <strong>GoYellow</strong> in its operational business<br />
some risks are still on the agenda. In case the directory assistance will not<br />
be as successful as planned this would stress the margins in the group.<br />
▪ The group will start a marketing campaign (EUR 5m) for the launch of the<br />
118000 service. Despite next year‟s financial figures will fall out of line it is<br />
a start into a new growth level as a result of the success of this newly<br />
established service. We expect 118000 to generate revenues of EUR<br />
3.5m in 2010E and already be profitable on quarterly basis in 2H 2009E.<br />
▪ Given the growth potential in the product portfolio of <strong>GoYellow</strong> we expect<br />
the group to achieve revenues of EUR 17.6m in 2009 which will continue<br />
over the next years to came in at EUR 30.3m in 2011. We estimate the<br />
EPS of <strong>GoYellow</strong> to be EUR 0.57 in 2009E, EUR 0.26 in 2010E and EUR<br />
1.00 in 2011E.<br />
▪ The share of <strong>GoYellow</strong> already shows a strong momentum and supported<br />
by positive corporate news this trend could endure for a while. However,<br />
<strong>de</strong>spite the positive stock <strong>de</strong>velopment, the company still has to proof its<br />
ability to sustain its profitiability in the long run.<br />
▪ We applied a multiple valuation based on a peer group and a Discounted<br />
Cash Flow (DCF) mo<strong>de</strong>l. Given the long-term growth prospects we weight<br />
the DCF with 75% in our valuation approach. Our price target is EUR<br />
10.50 per share. We initiate our coverage with a BUY recommendation,<br />
indicating an upsi<strong>de</strong> potential of about 48% for <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s stock.<br />
Key data<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
30 October 2009<br />
Share price (dark) vs. CDAX<br />
Sources: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong>, Bloomberg<br />
Internet: goyellow-media.<strong>de</strong><br />
WKN: 691190<br />
Reuters: VRIG.DE<br />
Share data:<br />
Share price (Yesterday‟s closing price):<br />
Shares outstanding (m):<br />
Market capitalisation (EURm):<br />
Enterprise value (EURm):<br />
Ø daily trading volume (no. of shares):<br />
Performance data:<br />
High 52 weeks:<br />
Low 52 weeks:<br />
Absolute performance (12 months):<br />
Relative performance (vs. CDAX):<br />
1 month<br />
3 months<br />
6 months<br />
12 months<br />
Sharehol<strong>de</strong>rs:<br />
Management:<br />
albiservice GmbH:<br />
Union Investment:<br />
Freefloat, others:<br />
Financial calen<strong>de</strong>r:<br />
19 March 2010<br />
Analyst: Marcus Silbe<br />
EUR 7.09<br />
6.6<br />
46.9<br />
36.3<br />
60,286<br />
EUR 7.84<br />
EUR 1.05<br />
500.85%<br />
7.52%<br />
20.0%<br />
155.59%<br />
413.57%<br />
26.70%<br />
14.90%<br />
4.90%<br />
53.50%<br />
Annual report FY 2010<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Phone: +49 (0)69 - 977 84 56 0<br />
E-Mail: research@cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Institutional Sales:<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Bank <strong>AG</strong><br />
Germany: Raimar Bock<br />
Phone: +49 (0)69 - 920 54 115<br />
Benelux: Olaf Coerper<br />
Phone: +49 (0)69 - 920 54 110<br />
France: Bruno <strong>de</strong> Lencquesaing<br />
Phone: +49 (0)69 - 920 54 116<br />
Close Brothers Seydler UK<br />
United Kingdom: Rob Roscoe<br />
Phone: +44 20 3100 0281<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Sector: Internet<br />
ISIN: DE0006911902<br />
Bloomberg: VRI GY<br />
Please notice the information on the preparation of this document, the disclaimer, the advice regarding possible conflicts of interests, and the mandatory information required by § 34b WpHG (Securities Trading Law) at<br />
the end of this document. This financial analysis in accordance with § 34b WpHG is exclusively inten<strong>de</strong>d for distribution to individuals that buy or sell financial instruments at their own account or at the account of others<br />
in connection with their trading activities, occupation, or employment.<br />
Change<br />
2009E 2010E<br />
2011E<br />
new old new old new old<br />
Sales 17.6 - 23.2 - 30.3 -<br />
EBIT 5.2 - 2.3 - 9.0 -<br />
EPS 0.57 - 0.26 - 1.00 -
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Table of content:<br />
Investment thesis ...................................................... 3<br />
SWOT analysis ........................................................... 5<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Strengths ...................................................................................................... 5<br />
Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 5<br />
Opportunities................................................................................................. 6<br />
Threats .......................................................................................................... 6<br />
Valuation.................................................................... 7<br />
Valuation summary ....................................................................................... 7<br />
Peer group valuation ..................................................................................... 8<br />
DCF ............................................................................................................ 11<br />
The company ........................................................... 13<br />
Company profile .......................................................................................... 13<br />
Company structure ...................................................................................... 13<br />
Management ............................................................................................... 13<br />
Sharehol<strong>de</strong>r structure ................................................................................. 14<br />
Company history ......................................................................................... 14<br />
Business mo<strong>de</strong>l........................................................ 16<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> GmbH ......................................................................................... 17<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> ............................................................................................. 17<br />
Peter Pays <strong>AG</strong> ............................................................................................ 19<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong>............................................................................................ 19<br />
Cheap Calls ............................................................................................. 20<br />
118000 Telefonvermittlung GmbH .............................................................. 20<br />
Strategy ................................................................... 21<br />
Strategic premises ...................................................................................... 21<br />
Growth strategy ........................................................................................... 21<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> ............................................................................................. 22<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong>............................................................................................ 23<br />
118000 ..................................................................................................... 23<br />
Distribution and marketing .......................................................................... 24<br />
Future projects ............................................................................................ 24<br />
Market <strong>de</strong>velopment ................................................ 25<br />
Local search & directory assistance ............................................................ 25<br />
Online advertising ....................................................................................... 25<br />
Competition ............................................................. 28<br />
Financials ................................................................ 30<br />
Historical financial <strong>de</strong>velopment.................................................................. 30<br />
Outlook ....................................................................................................... 32<br />
Appendix .................................................................. 37<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 2
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Investment thesis<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> is one of Germany‟s leading information service provi<strong>de</strong>rs.<br />
The subsidiaries of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> inclu<strong>de</strong> the wholly owned PeterPays <strong>AG</strong>,<br />
118000 Telefonvermittlung GmbH, and <strong>GoYellow</strong> GmbH, 90% of which is owned<br />
by <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, with the remaining 10% being held by a total of 16 German<br />
Yellow Pages publishers. The company was up to now solely engaged in the media<br />
portal business within Germany.<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> has established a business in the area of information services<br />
that ensures a fast <strong>de</strong>velopment process for new innovations, while remaining<br />
highly productive without jeopardising the working processes. Over the years the<br />
group managed to attain a strong market position in several promising sectors of<br />
the e-commerce business.<br />
One of the key elements of <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s strategy is the extension of the product<br />
portfolio with innovations that allow to expand the market share as the company will<br />
benefit from its first-mover-advantage not only in the business mo<strong>de</strong>l of<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> in Germany, but also in particular with the new switchboard service<br />
118000 which is currently a unique business mo<strong>de</strong>l in the whole European market<br />
and leads to strong entry barriers for new market entrants.<br />
After a long transformation phase, the company has stabilised its operative<br />
performance over the last five quarters, as a consequence of restructuring the<br />
business mo<strong>de</strong>l and tightening the strategic goals of the group. Over the period 1Q<br />
2008 – 3Q 2009 the company experienced a top line growth of C<strong>AG</strong>R 14% and<br />
managed to becoming profitable. Along with steady improvement in net income and<br />
EBIT margin, the company pushed ahead with implementing a more focused<br />
business mo<strong>de</strong>l with the main focus on its goyellow.<strong>de</strong> segment.<br />
Taking into account that the fourth quarter will be as profitable as the first nine<br />
months 2009 this fiscal year will end very positively. Overall, we expect the group to<br />
achieve total revenues of EUR 17.64m, indicating a 33.9% growth yoy. Therefore,<br />
4Q revenues will amount to EUR 4.41m. The estimated gross profit margin of<br />
91.8% leads to a margin for full year of 89.9%, corresponding to EUR 15.86m.<br />
Similarly to the revenue growth in 2009E, the EBIT also will further rise. In<br />
comparison to the previous year the group should achieve an EBIT of EUR 5.2m in<br />
2009E, corresponding to an EBIT-margin of 29.4%. Despite the increasing<br />
marketing expenses in 2010E we are confi<strong>de</strong>nt that <strong>GoYellow</strong> will also be able to<br />
keep its cost structure manageable in the mid-term. In the long run we are<br />
convinced that the top line growth of <strong>GoYellow</strong> will further continue and the EBITmargin<br />
will settle down in the range of 25% in 2018E, which is in our opinion a<br />
conservative assumption.<br />
The significant growth momentum which <strong>GoYellow</strong> has achieved over the last two<br />
years should also sustain in the course of the fiscal year 2009E. In addition,<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>ring the current product portfolio (including the new units 118000 and<br />
Cheap Calls) we are convinced that <strong>GoYellow</strong> is favourably positioned for the mid-<br />
and long-term.<br />
Generally speaking this new service line will bring <strong>GoYellow</strong> up to a new level of<br />
operational performance. Additionally, as the group is the first mover on this service<br />
the chances of success are very promising. According to the management,<br />
revenues in the range of EUR 5 – 10m seems a realistic scenario for 2010. We<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> is a leading<br />
information service<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>r<br />
Fast <strong>de</strong>veloped<br />
processes for new<br />
innovations<br />
Strategic premises are<br />
the remo<strong>de</strong>lling of<br />
PeterZahlt and the<br />
establishment of<br />
118000<br />
The group managed to<br />
perform a C<strong>AG</strong>R of<br />
14% over seven<br />
quarters<br />
4Q will confirm the<br />
positive momentum in<br />
the current fiscal year<br />
Further growth<br />
potential over the next<br />
few years<br />
EBIT-margin 25% in<br />
the long run<br />
Favourable positioned<br />
for the mid- and longterm<br />
118000 will boost the<br />
performance of the<br />
group<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 3
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
<strong>de</strong>ci<strong>de</strong>d to chose a conservative assumption for the revenue growth and expect in<br />
our estimation EUR 3.5m in 2010E and EUR 4.03m in 2011E. By doing so,<br />
revenues of EUR 3.5m indicate about 1.75m calls, as we expect a price of EUR 2<br />
per call. For 2011E this would correspond to 2.1m caller, indicating a growth of<br />
about 15% yoy.<br />
Based on the expected figures for 2009E the EV/EBIT-Multiple is about 7.0 and<br />
about 15.8 for 2010E. Based on our forecasts for 2011E, currently the share is<br />
tra<strong>de</strong>d with a P/E-ratio of about 7.1.<br />
We applied a multiple valuation based on a peer group and a Discounted Cash<br />
Flow (DCF) mo<strong>de</strong>l. Given the long-term growth prospects we weight the DCF with<br />
75% in our valuation approach. Our multiple valuation on the basis of P/E and EV<br />
multiples indicates a market-<strong>de</strong>rived value of EUR 6.25 per share. Our DCF mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
yields a fair value of EUR 12.02 per share. On the basis of both results this<br />
approach resulted in a fair value of EUR 10.58 per share. Our price target per<br />
share is at EUR 10.50. We initiate our coverage with a BUY recommendation.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
P/E 7.1 for 2011E<br />
BUY recommendation<br />
with price target of<br />
EUR 10.50 per share<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 4
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
SWOT analysis<br />
Strengths<br />
▪ Strong market position: The company is one of the leading business assistance<br />
companies in the German market<br />
▪ The company provi<strong>de</strong>s through its highly experienced and well-known<br />
management board strong expertise by offering high-quality in all of its product<br />
portfolios<br />
▪ High entry barriers in the core market <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> as well as the newly<br />
established switchboard service 118000<br />
▪ Solid sharehol<strong>de</strong>r structure: The management has been steadily committed to<br />
the stock with a current share of about 26.7%<br />
▪ With a sophisticated IT-infrastructure the company is able to fulfil its strategic<br />
growth targets by new products with EBIT-margins of about 30%<br />
▪ Strong positioning on the product si<strong>de</strong>: <strong>GoYellow</strong> has achieved an excellent mix<br />
between existing products that have been installed in the market which already<br />
generate significant sales volumes and promising margin levels<br />
▪ Balance sheet: The group is not affected by liability payments to banks and<br />
managed to turnaround over the last few years<br />
Weaknesses<br />
▪ Low geographic business diversification: The company generates its revenues<br />
in Germany. Therefore, the growth potential <strong>de</strong>pends on the consumer<br />
behaviour of its home market<br />
▪ Low revenue diversification: The company still generates between 70% - 80%<br />
of its revenues in the <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> business<br />
▪ High <strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>ncy on the distribution channels of the yellow pages publishers as<br />
most of its revenues amounts to this segment<br />
▪ The company has just become profitable after several years of losses.<br />
Therefore, the group has to proof whether this profitability is sustainable<br />
▪ As the switchboard service is unique in the German market the risk of failure is<br />
not yet fully foreseeable<br />
▪ No divi<strong>de</strong>nd payments: As long as the group has retained losses in the balance<br />
sheet the group is not able to pay divi<strong>de</strong>nds<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 5
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Opportunities<br />
▪ Promising growth prospects in emerging new directory assistance service:<br />
Resulting from a first-mover-advantage in this new kind of directory assistance<br />
the group can built up high market entry barriers and boost up its top and<br />
bottom lines by this new segment<br />
▪ Organic growth potential resulting from new pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l at <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong>: In<br />
August 2008 the group changed its pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l for <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> from its<br />
“offline-related pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l” towards the online-related pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l similar to<br />
general search engines like Google, which have already shown a big impact on<br />
the financial statement, and the prospects for further growth seems promising<br />
▪ Expansion of business to new geographic markets as well as business<br />
opportunities arising in the business segment of PeterZahlt and the newly<br />
established services<br />
▪ The growth strategy is not bur<strong>de</strong>ned by one specific business unit: The<br />
business mo<strong>de</strong>l of <strong>GoYellow</strong> does not <strong>de</strong>pend on the growth ability of one<br />
segment as every segment can be seen as a stand-alone<br />
▪ In case the <strong>de</strong>velopment of the iPhone application Cheap Calls will exceed the<br />
“low” expectations, this business might be enhance in the future<br />
Threats<br />
▪ Negative impacts from current economic slowdown: As the segment<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong>pends on acquiring new customers the current stressed market<br />
sentiment could hit the top line performance of the group<br />
▪ Given that up to now no <strong>de</strong>tails concerning the business mo<strong>de</strong>l of the<br />
switchboard service are published it is difficult to forecast planning figures for<br />
the company as well as the success rate as it is not known if this new service<br />
will be accepted by the customers<br />
▪ The group will start a campaign in 2010 with a marketing budget of about EUR<br />
5m. In case the company is not able to refinance this expense the financial<br />
statement as well as the cash flow situation might be stressed by this effect<br />
▪ The remo<strong>de</strong>ling of PeterZahlt towards a “German Skype service” could miss the<br />
customer <strong>de</strong>mand and therefore, the group‟s financial situation would be<br />
stressed and in the worst case scenario another restructuring/remo<strong>de</strong>ling has to<br />
be provi<strong>de</strong>d to justify the going concern without bur<strong>de</strong>ning the bottom line and<br />
cash flows in a disproportional manner<br />
▪ Certain companies inclu<strong>de</strong>d in consolidation were sued for damages by<br />
Deutsche Telekom <strong>AG</strong> for using subscriber data. Despite the fact, that<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> already consi<strong>de</strong>rs bringing charges against Deutsche Telekom <strong>AG</strong> a<br />
possible compensation payment could harm the financial figures of the group<br />
<strong>de</strong>spite the risks are insignificant, according to the company<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 6
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Valuation<br />
Valuation summary<br />
We applied a multiple valuation and a discounted cash flow (DCF) mo<strong>de</strong>l to <strong>de</strong>rive<br />
the company´s fair value. Our peer group comparison indicates a fair value of EUR<br />
6.25 per share. We focused on the multiples for 2009E to 2011E to have more<br />
certainty in consi<strong>de</strong>ring the estimates for the peer group-companies. Our DCF<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l results in a fair value of EUR 12.02 per share.<br />
We weighted the DFC valuation with 75% and the Peer group valuation with only<br />
25%, because of the limited informative value of the slightly heterogeneous peer<br />
group. We believe that the DCF mo<strong>de</strong>l better indicates the long term perspectives<br />
of this growing company. We <strong>de</strong>rive a final fair value of EUR 10.58. We start our<br />
coverage with a BUY recommendation and a price target of EUR 10.50 per share.<br />
Consolidation of valuation methods<br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
On the basis of our <strong>de</strong>rived fair enterprise value (EV) we calculated an EV/EBIT<br />
multiple of 11.5 for 2009E and an EV/EBIT multiple for 2011E of 6.6. EV/EBITDA<br />
for 2009E and 2011E on basis of the <strong>de</strong>rived fair value is about 10.9 and 6.4.<br />
Furthermore, we calculated the multiples based on the current stock market price,<br />
which are stated in the last row of the table below.<br />
Multiples of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> on basis of fair value per share<br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Weighting Fair value<br />
factor per share (EUR)<br />
Peer group valuation 25.0% 6.25<br />
DCF valuation 75.0% 12.02<br />
Fair value per share (EUR) 10.58<br />
Valuation on basis of a<br />
DCF mo<strong>de</strong>l and a peer<br />
group comparison<br />
Fair Value per share is<br />
EUR 10.58<br />
Price target of EUR<br />
10.50 per share<br />
Current multiples<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 7
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Peer group valuation<br />
From our point of view <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s equity story is very special in the German stock<br />
market. In or<strong>de</strong>r to inclu<strong>de</strong> a market-oriented approach in our valuation, we used a<br />
multiple valuation based on a peer group. Our peer group comprises six listed<br />
companies related to with similar business mo<strong>de</strong>ls operating in European markets.<br />
We <strong>de</strong>ci<strong>de</strong>d to build two peer groups. One group should exclusively composed of<br />
stocks, which have a high proportion of revenue generated in the Yellow pages<br />
business (off- and online). The second peer group is composed of companies,<br />
which have a high share of revenues generated in the area of (online) advertising<br />
and subscriber payments (XING). Overall, all chosen companies have a focus on<br />
the online business.<br />
As indicated in the table below, the company´s market cap of EUR 46.9m is still<br />
relatively low compared to its relevant peers, although <strong>GoYellow</strong> is in Germany one<br />
of the few companies within this specific sector.<br />
Peer groups: Company data<br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong>, Bloomberg<br />
Peer group – short overview<br />
ad pepper media <strong>AG</strong> is an in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt international online advertising marketer.<br />
The company offers individual and efficient solutions for media agencies,<br />
advertisers and websites in display, performance, email and affiliate marketing,<br />
covering practically the whole range of online advertising. The ad pepper media<br />
group offers trailblazing solutions in their fields, including: Emediate (ad serving),<br />
ad.agents (search engine marketing) and Globase (email marketing technology).<br />
Source: ad pepper media <strong>AG</strong>, Bloomberg, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
AdLINK Group is a European supplier of online performance-based marketing<br />
solutions. The AdLINK Group reaches over 100m unique users around the world<br />
via its brands affilinet (www.affili.net) and Sedo (www.sedo.com). Over 6m internet<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>’s investment<br />
story is promising<br />
All chosen companies<br />
have focus on the<br />
online business<br />
ad pepper media <strong>AG</strong><br />
AdLINK Group<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 8
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
domains and websites are converted into sales leads and customers. In its<br />
operating business, the AdLINK Group will focus on the performance-based<br />
advertising mo<strong>de</strong>ls of its specialist‟s affilinet (Affiliate Marketing) and Sedo (Domain<br />
Marketing).<br />
Source: ADLINK Group, Bloomberg, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Eniro AB is a Swe<strong>de</strong>n-based company engaged in the provision of search and<br />
directory services. Its search database connects sellers to buyers and helps to find<br />
people using Online, Voice and Offline <strong>Media</strong> channels. The Online business unit<br />
inclu<strong>de</strong>s Eniro‟s Internet services, comprising the local search Websites in all the<br />
Nordic countries, as well as mobile services in Swe<strong>de</strong>n, Norway, Denmark and<br />
Finland. The Offline <strong>Media</strong> business unit inclu<strong>de</strong>s the Company‟s production of<br />
directories and other printed media, such as map books in Denmark.<br />
Source: Eniro AB, Bloomberg, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
telegate <strong>AG</strong> is a multichannel-provi<strong>de</strong>r of local search with approx. 3,000<br />
employees across the group. The majority interest in telegate MEDIA <strong>AG</strong> (former<br />
klickTel <strong>AG</strong>) was an important milestone with regard to the strategic new orientation<br />
on the German core market. The company supplies consumers in Germany with<br />
high-quality information via the internet portals 1880.com and klickTel.<strong>de</strong>, the<br />
telephone directory assistance 11880, the klickTel CD-ROMs and -software<br />
solutions as well as via the directory assistance services for mobile <strong>de</strong>vices.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Eniro AB<br />
telegate <strong>AG</strong><br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 9
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Source: telegate <strong>AG</strong>, Bloomberg, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
XING <strong>AG</strong> is a Germany-based company engaged in the provision and maintenance<br />
of online business communication services. By providing the Internet platform<br />
xing.com the group aims at business professionals, offering discovery capability<br />
and contact management tools. The Company divi<strong>de</strong>s its operations into three<br />
business divisions: Subscriptions, e-commerce and Advertising.<br />
Source: XING <strong>AG</strong>, Bloomberg, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Yell Group plc (Yell) is an international directories business operating in the<br />
advertising market, through the printed, online and phone-based media in the<br />
United Kingdom, the United States, Spain and Latin America. During the fiscal year<br />
en<strong>de</strong>d March 31, 2009 (fiscal 2008), the Company completed the acquisition of the<br />
Adworks businesses in the United Kingdom, the United States, Spain and India.<br />
Source: Yell Group plc, Bloomberg, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
XING <strong>AG</strong><br />
Yell Group plc<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 10
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Valuation<br />
As already mentioned, we applied the median of both peer group multiples for<br />
2009E to 2011E to our financial forecasts for <strong>GoYellow</strong>. However, consi<strong>de</strong>ring the<br />
marketing campaign costs of about EUR 5m the financial figures of <strong>GoYellow</strong> are<br />
distorted in 2010E to a large extent, as the income statement-related effects will<br />
follow-up this campaign for the newly established switchboard service 118000.<br />
Consequently, the fair value per share is not as accurate as the long-term approach<br />
of the DCF mo<strong>de</strong>l which led us to the <strong>de</strong>cision to weigh the peer group valuation<br />
only with 25% (DCF 75%) in the overall company valuation.<br />
Our multiple valuation of <strong>GoYellow</strong> resulted in a fair value of equity of EUR 41.4m.<br />
Because of the sufficient comparability of the peer group in regards to <strong>GoYellow</strong> we<br />
did not use any premium or discount. According to our multiple valuation, the fair<br />
value per share amounts to EUR 6.25.<br />
Peer Group Valuation: Multiples and <strong>de</strong>rived valuation<br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong>, Bloomberg<br />
DCF<br />
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) mo<strong>de</strong>l is based on the following assumptions:<br />
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC): On the basis of the current long-term<br />
yields of German fe<strong>de</strong>ral bonds, we set the risk-free rate at 3.0%. We assumed an<br />
equity risk premium of 6.5%, and a <strong>de</strong>bt risk premium of 2.5%. We did not use<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s historical beta for the WACC calculation due to the recent volatility in<br />
stock markets and the strong momentum in the share of <strong>GoYellow</strong>. We <strong>de</strong>ci<strong>de</strong>d to<br />
use a Beta of about 1.4, which is a very conservative assumption. We furthermore<br />
assumed a long-term target equity ratio at market values of 80%, which is also a<br />
conservative assumption. These premises lead to a WACC of 10.53%.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
We applied the median<br />
of the peer group<br />
multiples<br />
Our multiple valuation<br />
of <strong>GoYellow</strong> resulted in<br />
a fair value per share<br />
of EUR 6.25<br />
WACC calculation<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 11
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Phase 1 (2008-10E): We estimated the free cash flows (FCF) of phase 1 according<br />
to our <strong>de</strong>tailed financial forecasts for this period stated in the financials section.<br />
Phase 2 (2011-17E): For Phase 2, we started out from more general assumptions.<br />
We allowed annual sales growth to <strong>de</strong>crease successively to 3.0% in 2018E. In the<br />
long run we incorporated a stabilisation of the EBIT margin to 25.0% in 2018E into<br />
our mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
Phase 3: For the calculation of the terminal value, we applied a long-term FCF<br />
growth rate of 2.0% which equals the estimated long-term inflation rate. This<br />
assumption theoretically corresponds to a real-term zero growth since we use a<br />
nominal discount rate (WACC).<br />
Based on these assumptions, we calculated a fair value of the operating business<br />
of EUR 71.8m. We ad<strong>de</strong>d <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s net cash and inclu<strong>de</strong>d the estimated market<br />
value of minority interests. The resulting fair value of equity is EUR 79.6m. The fair<br />
value per share amounts to EUR 12.02, according to our DCF mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
DCF<br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Phase 1: Detailed<br />
forecasts<br />
We allowed annual<br />
sales growth to<br />
<strong>de</strong>crease successively<br />
to 3% in 2018E<br />
Long-term FCF growth<br />
rate of 2.0%<br />
Fair value per share of<br />
EUR 12.02<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 12
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
The company<br />
Company profile<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> is one of Germany‟s leading information service provi<strong>de</strong>rs.<br />
The subsidiaries of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> inclu<strong>de</strong> the wholly owned PeterPays <strong>AG</strong>,<br />
118000 Telefonvermittlung GmbH, and <strong>GoYellow</strong> GmbH, 90% of which is owned<br />
by <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, with the remaining 10% being held by a total of 16 German<br />
Yellow Pages publishers. The Company is up to now solely engaged in the media<br />
portal business within Germany. With the scheduled launch date for the 118000<br />
switchboard services in December 2009, the company offers a broad range of<br />
valuable services that intelligently and efficiently combine telephony services and<br />
the Internet. Additionally, by establishing the new 118000 service the company<br />
plans to close the existent gap between directory assistance and Internet search<br />
engine. Currently, the group employs 58 people and is managed by Dr. Klaus<br />
Harisch and Peter Wünsch.<br />
Company structure<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> purely acts as a management holding that has key<br />
subsidiaries, each of them covering a specific strategic direction: <strong>GoYellow</strong> GmbH<br />
(90%), Peter Pays <strong>AG</strong> (100%), and 118000 Telefonvermittlung GmbH (100%)<br />
which was established in September 2009. The remaining 10% share in <strong>GoYellow</strong><br />
GmbH is held by the publishing group of the yellow pages.<br />
Company structure<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> GmbH<br />
90%<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Management<br />
The management board of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> currently consists of two members - Dr.<br />
Klaus Harisch and Peter Wünsch.<br />
Dr. Klaus Harisch is Chief Executive Officer of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> and is<br />
responsible for strategy, finance and corporate communication. He has been CEO<br />
of the group since 01 January 2004. Prior to his engagement at <strong>GoYellow</strong> he was<br />
one of the three foun<strong>de</strong>r of telegate <strong>AG</strong> on 07 August 1996, a company which grew<br />
un<strong>de</strong>r his lea<strong>de</strong>rship as CEO to employ 3,000 professionals and occupy a<br />
prominent position in the directory services branch. As studied physicist Dr. Harisch<br />
started his career 1992 as a technical project manager at Schwarz-Schilling &<br />
Partner GmbH, based in Munich.<br />
Peter Wünsch is as board member of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> responsible for the<br />
operational business of <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> and the telephony services. Since 2004 he<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Peter Pays <strong>AG</strong><br />
100%<br />
118000<br />
Telefonvermittlung<br />
GmbH<br />
100%<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> is a leading<br />
information service<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>r<br />
Dr. Klaus Harisch is<br />
CEO<br />
Peter Wünsch<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 13
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
has been a board member of <strong>GoYellow</strong> (till Juni 2006 varetis <strong>AG</strong>). Mr. Peter<br />
Wünsch is one of the four foun<strong>de</strong>rs of varetis and a co-foun<strong>de</strong>r of telegate <strong>AG</strong>. Mr.<br />
Wünsch had studied information technology and after that he worked as system<br />
analyst at Dr. Henk-Unternehmensberatung, Munich.<br />
Sharehol<strong>de</strong>r structure<br />
As shown in the following chart, the company‟s sharehol<strong>de</strong>r structure as published<br />
by <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> on 09 October 2009 mainly consists of free float (43.30%).<br />
Sharehol<strong>de</strong>r structure<br />
BW Invest<br />
4.80%<br />
Union<br />
Investment<br />
4.90%<br />
Günther Baierl<br />
5.40%<br />
albiservice<br />
GmbH 14.90%<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>; CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
As seen in the chart above, the <strong>GoYellow</strong> management (Dr. Klaus Harisch, Peter<br />
Wünsch) has been steadily committed (current share ~26.7%) for a long time. This<br />
is, in our opinion, a proof the management is trust to the company.<br />
Company history<br />
The corporate history of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> started with the foundation of the<br />
pre<strong>de</strong>cessor company pc-plus GmbH in 1983. In 1989 the company <strong>de</strong>veloped a<br />
gateway system for access to international databases (IDIS) and one year later the<br />
<strong>de</strong>veloped software (IDIS) had been <strong>de</strong>ployed in Germany, Switzerland, the UK<br />
and Finland.<br />
In the course of the founding of pc-plus INFORMATIK GmbH & Co. KG in 1992 the<br />
company became a global player in the field of international telephone directory<br />
assistance systems. Resulting from the internationalisation the company launched<br />
subsidiaries in several countries, like USA, Switzerland, the UK and Singapore.<br />
At the company‟s 15th Year anniversary pc-plus enhanced its product portfolio<br />
towards internet telephone information systems, automatic directory assistance and<br />
the expansion of all call center applications. In the same year company changed<br />
into pc-plus INFORMATIK <strong>AG</strong>. But already one year later the company name<br />
changed to varetis <strong>AG</strong> and since 2000 the share has been listed at the Frankfurt<br />
Stock Exchange.<br />
The internet searches for local addresses (Goyellow.<strong>de</strong>) had been <strong>de</strong>veloped in<br />
2004 resulting from the know-how of varetis in the field of data search technologies.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Peter Wünsch<br />
12.10%<br />
Free float<br />
43.30%<br />
Dr. Klaus<br />
Harisch 14.60%<br />
Sharehol<strong>de</strong>r structure<br />
mainly consist of<br />
freefloat<br />
Management has been<br />
steadily committed<br />
Foun<strong>de</strong>d in 1983 as pcplus<br />
GmbH<br />
IPO as varetis <strong>AG</strong> in<br />
2000<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 14
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Asi<strong>de</strong> local searches, the company acquired on 4 November 2004 Telix <strong>AG</strong>, whose<br />
services inclu<strong>de</strong>d carrying out a number of functions for provi<strong>de</strong>rs of value-ad<strong>de</strong>d<br />
telephone services. However, at 31 Dec 2007 this service was discontinued by the<br />
group. At the end of 2005 varetis <strong>AG</strong> sold its subsidiary varetis solutions GmbH to<br />
one of its main competitor Volt Delta Resources LLC.<br />
Since 2006 the group has been firmed as <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>. In addition, the<br />
group started a new telephony platform in 2006, called PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong>. In October<br />
2007 the online e-commerce platform peterzahltaus.<strong>de</strong> has been launched.<br />
Due to strategic changes in the business mo<strong>de</strong>l of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> the group<br />
sold 10% of <strong>GoYellow</strong> GmbH to the publishing group of the yellow pages in 2007.<br />
Likewise the group changed its payment structure of goyellow.<strong>de</strong> towards a<br />
pagerank payment system. The modification of the subscriber commissions has<br />
positively affected the income statement.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Since 2006 <strong>GoYellow</strong><br />
<strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 15
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Business mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> has established a business in the area of information services<br />
that ensures a fast <strong>de</strong>velopment process for new innovations, while remaining<br />
highly productive without jeopardising the working processes. Over the years the<br />
group managed to attain a strong market position in several promising sectors of<br />
the e-commerce business. Besi<strong>de</strong>s, the group is able to focus on its core strategic<br />
plan and <strong>de</strong>velopment progresses, as well as relatively low fixed costs and capital<br />
expenditures which lead to a higher margin level. As a consequence, <strong>GoYellow</strong><br />
benefits from its highly scalable and effective production capacity within the<br />
business segments.<br />
The company has three core business units: <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong>, PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> and the<br />
recent established 118000 service. Overall, the services of <strong>GoYellow</strong> play an<br />
important role within the strategic orientation implemented by the group.<br />
Business mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> GmbH<br />
Goyellow.<strong>de</strong><br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong> *PeterZahltaus.<strong>de</strong> discontinuation already initiated<br />
The company currently generates most of its revenue from the <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong><br />
segment. However, the present focus and the introduction of new products are<br />
expected to play a more important role over the next few years. The group‟s<br />
portfolio of online advertising options is unique and special in the German market<br />
which enables ads to be broadcasted to specific target groups online without any<br />
waste coverage.<br />
The main focus of the company‟s business mo<strong>de</strong>l is to further strengthen the shift<br />
in the revenue structure to a more balanced level. The bilateral enhancement of<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> and other e-commerce business units should bring the company to a<br />
Pareto situation. On basis of this wi<strong>de</strong>-ranged business mo<strong>de</strong>l, <strong>GoYellow</strong> has built<br />
up a sophisticated product portfolio comprising the local search segment as well as<br />
the telephony segment.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Peter Pays <strong>AG</strong><br />
Peterzahlt.<strong>de</strong><br />
Peterzahltaus.<strong>de</strong><br />
Cheap Calls<br />
118000<br />
Telefonvermittlung<br />
GmbH<br />
118000 service<br />
Business mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
enables fast process<br />
for new innovations<br />
Three core business<br />
units<br />
Biggest revenues<br />
percentage<br />
corresponding to<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong><br />
Main focus is further<br />
strengthen the revenue<br />
structure to a more<br />
balanced level<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 16
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> GmbH<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong><br />
The <strong>GoYellow</strong> segment reflects the benchmark figures of the internet portal<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong>, which was introduced on 15 October 2004, offering small and<br />
medium-sized shops a platform for an individual presentation of their business or<br />
scopes of services. The site provi<strong>de</strong>s currently contact <strong>de</strong>tails for around 34m<br />
private individuals and businesses throughout Germany, real-time public<br />
transportation schedules for all of Germany, weather information, opening hours,<br />
seasonal data on swimming lakes and ski areas, and a great <strong>de</strong>al of other useful,<br />
clearly categorized information. Over the past five years, <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> has become<br />
one of the Germany‟s most frequently visited websites.<br />
Homepage <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong><br />
Source: www.goyellow.<strong>de</strong><br />
The <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> directory assistance service became one of the most popular<br />
online addresses in Germany. The ability to search for individuals and businesses<br />
using dynamic aerial images and the incomparably large pool of current local<br />
information has ma<strong>de</strong> the portal an important everyday reference tool. Besi<strong>de</strong>s, the<br />
online portal is an i<strong>de</strong>al way for small and medium-sized companies to present<br />
themselves to a large number of potential customers throughout Germany in an<br />
economical, up-to-date and attractive way. Thereby, businesses can place their ads<br />
themselves online or book them through a yellow pages media consultant in their<br />
region.<br />
Product overview<br />
Along with regularly updated contact information for private individuals and<br />
businesses, <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> offers timetables for public transportation, weather<br />
forecasts, traffic reports and a variety of seasonal recreational tips. The portal has<br />
ad<strong>de</strong>d over 150,000 listings for restaurants, hotels, tra<strong>de</strong>smen, doctors and service<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>rs throughout Germany which have been reviewed by customers and<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> is an<br />
online directory<br />
assistance service and<br />
one of the top player<br />
Broad product portfolio<br />
un<strong>de</strong>r one roof<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 17
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
patients. The search engine also inclu<strong>de</strong>s map searching with route planning.<br />
According to the company, this stage of expansion is still extendable.<br />
Besi<strong>de</strong>s the general extension of the contact information database, it is planned to<br />
enlarge the map search engine in conjunction with a partner company in 2010.<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> also wants to support the sales activity by launching a new marketing<br />
campaign as well as arrangements to boost up the revenue level.<br />
Distribution<br />
In contrary to the distribution channels of existing internet portals <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> is<br />
not only limited to the sales approach via internet. In addition to the current<br />
measurements by promoting the platform via online advertising the company also<br />
has the opportunity to access the full potential of the yellow pages publishers,<br />
which have a big reputation and potential to canvass new customers. <strong>GoYellow</strong><br />
started an open-end sales cooperation with the yellow pages publishers, whose<br />
stake in <strong>GoYellow</strong> GmbH is currently 10%.<br />
Overall, the publishing companies are fully responsible for the active distribution of<br />
the internet platform. The service in return is a commission for every new payer. As<br />
the company did not provi<strong>de</strong> any information about the <strong>de</strong>tailed percentage for the<br />
publishers, we assume that about 40% of the monthly fee is related as commission,<br />
corresponding to about EUR 12 per paying customer.<br />
Pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
In 2008 the group changed its pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l. In the course of that <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> has<br />
significantly expan<strong>de</strong>d the options for its free basic listings for businesses<br />
(GoBasic). In contrast to the past the businesses have more freedom to <strong>de</strong>sign<br />
their hit list (company profile).<br />
GoBasic benefits at zero costs<br />
GoBasic<br />
�Full company <strong>de</strong>scription<br />
�40 individual key words for<br />
search optimisation<br />
�Continual search engine<br />
optimisation atGoogle<br />
�Customer enquiry matched<br />
for regional focus<br />
�Notation on Goyellow maps<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
The shift from the old pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l in which the users have to pay for the <strong>de</strong>sign<br />
as a whole the companies can now <strong>de</strong>sign a multi-page web presence and yet will<br />
pay only for prioritised display in the search results listings (GoTop). The current<br />
charge for the GoTop mo<strong>de</strong>l is according to the annual contract EUR 29.90 per<br />
month excluding VAT.<br />
Users of <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> will therefore benefit from the significantly higher proportion<br />
of qualified hits. As well as adding value to the service through more content,<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> also expects that companies will be more willing to pay for the<br />
prominent placing of an advertising presence that is already online. For comparison<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Further enlargement<br />
plans for 2010<br />
Distribution channels<br />
are outsourced to<br />
Yellow pages<br />
publishers<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> pays 40%<br />
commission for the<br />
distribution effort<br />
GoBasic mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
GoTop mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 18
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
only, major search engines like Google have already been successfully employing<br />
this strategy for many years.<br />
GoTop benefits at EUR 29.90 per month<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Peter Pays <strong>AG</strong><br />
The PeterPays <strong>AG</strong> operates and markets the successful Internet portals<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> and PeterZahltAus.<strong>de</strong>, as well as the recently <strong>de</strong>veloped iPhone<br />
application Cheap Calls. PeterPays <strong>AG</strong> is a 100% subsidiary of <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong><br />
<strong>AG</strong> and currently employs nearly 20 employees.<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong><br />
GoTop<br />
�All GoBasic services<br />
�Positioning at top of the<br />
ranking<br />
�Highlighted illustration<br />
�Ad free<br />
�Database entry in up to 8<br />
industries<br />
�Locating is optimised for<br />
regional tracking<br />
According to the group, PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> is the world's first telephony portal through<br />
which you can make free domestic and international phone calls. Through<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong>, customers can make free national and international calls to 30<br />
countries every day between 6:00 am and midnight and talk for up to 30 minutes on<br />
any conventional telephone. Users with a DSL broadband connection, for example,<br />
do not incur any costs for making calls to the USA or China. This service is<br />
financed through advertising that is displayed during the interview on the screen.<br />
Due to the very high mobile phone costs PeterZahlt only provi<strong>de</strong>s calls to mobile<br />
phones of 30 seconds in length.<br />
Homepage PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong><br />
Source: www.PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Peter Pays consists of<br />
three in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt<br />
units<br />
World first telephony<br />
portal<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 19
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Processing<br />
The call duration is limited to 30 minutes and it is <strong>de</strong>man<strong>de</strong>d that during the<br />
conversation the caller conforms its own personal interests at the displayed<br />
information program. To use the call free of charge service through PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong>,<br />
the caller has to enter the number of the interlocutor in the first box and the own<br />
phone number in the second field. In case the preferred country (overseas calls) is<br />
listed in the "supported countries", an international call is also possible. To start the<br />
conversation the caller can choose between PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> Classic and Autodial.<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> Classic<br />
Using the service PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> Classic the caller has just to click after entering the<br />
phone number to "now", and the provi<strong>de</strong>r will call the prompted number: First, the<br />
caller‟s phone rings, then that of the dialed interlocutor. After both have withdrawn,<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> will turn up the connections.<br />
Autodial<br />
For the Autodial service not PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> calls you at your own phone number, but<br />
the user calls PeterZahlt on a normal German landline number. This fixed number<br />
is calling back and therefore, the caller can still phone for free. The process of<br />
autodial is very simple. As many of the German users have a flat rate to the<br />
German fixed network, but must pay high fees for international calls. From<br />
PeterZahlt‟s perspective this service is less expensive, because the call-in to the<br />
users are not required anymore.<br />
Cheap Calls<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> <strong>de</strong>veloped an iPhone application, called CheapCalls, to<br />
significantly save money on overseas calls. Currently, for a total of 40 countries<br />
every call costs EUR 0.29 per minute. Calls can even be ma<strong>de</strong> to cell phone<br />
networks at the same low rate. The application is free to download from the Apple<br />
Store as well as on the homepage (www.cheapcalls.<strong>de</strong>). Up to now the service is<br />
only available for iPhone users, but the company plans to provi<strong>de</strong> this new service<br />
tool for all smart-phones, which should be realized within the next year. According<br />
to the company, the launch of this application was successful as within the first few<br />
days already more than 10,000 users downloa<strong>de</strong>d the application. However, a first<br />
indication about the consumer acceptance is not expected until 1Q 2010E.<br />
PeterZahltaus.<strong>de</strong><br />
The created bonus online portal will be shortly discontinued from the group‟s<br />
operating business and the database of PeterZahltaus.<strong>de</strong> has already been sold to<br />
AdiCash GmbH. Therefore, we will not <strong>de</strong>fine the business mo<strong>de</strong>l of<br />
PeterZahltaus.<strong>de</strong> as this unit is no longer important for the strategic targets of the<br />
group.<br />
118000 Telefonvermittlung GmbH<br />
The company will launch a switchboard service using the number 118000 in<br />
December 2009. At 118000, callers can get in touch with people whose contact<br />
<strong>de</strong>tails are not available on public directories. 118000 treats all data highly<br />
confi<strong>de</strong>ntially and does not forward them to third parties. If the requested person<br />
cannot be reached, the caller can leave a message. The new service will thus close<br />
the gap between directory assistance and Internet search engine. As this service is<br />
not yet fully <strong>de</strong>veloped, not enough data has been available to give a <strong>de</strong>tailed<br />
overview.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Processing consists of<br />
two calling<br />
opportunities<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> classic<br />
Autodial<br />
Newly established<br />
iPhone application<br />
showed already a good<br />
start<br />
Discontinued within<br />
the next 12 months<br />
This service<br />
construction is unique<br />
in the European<br />
market and therefore<br />
promising<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 20
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Strategy<br />
Strategic premises<br />
Overall, the company has several strategic objectives, which <strong>GoYellow</strong> plans to<br />
fullfil in the next year. Firstly, the company intends to increase its paying customer<br />
base at <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong>. Besi<strong>de</strong>s, the group will improve its earnings situations in the<br />
segments of PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> and the newly established services of the directory<br />
assistance 118000 and the iPhone application CheapCalls.<br />
As already mentioned by <strong>GoYellow</strong>, the company has plans to restructuring the<br />
business mo<strong>de</strong>l of PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> to a “German-Skype”. In case this can be realised<br />
without bigger financial exposure the group should be able to achieve positive<br />
earnings at PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> for the first time.<br />
For 4Q 2009 and 1Q 2010 the group will establish the already announced<br />
switchboard service 118000 which is currently unique in the German and European<br />
market. With a manageable expenses structure the service should already be<br />
profitable on operative level within its first year (2010E). <strong>GoYellow</strong> plans to<br />
establish a switchboard service in or<strong>de</strong>r to achieve outcome quality in the directory<br />
assistance market and, as a result, be able to influence the existent market<br />
environment.<br />
In addition, the group has already published an iPhone application called Cheap<br />
Calls which enables the German mobile phone users to save money on<br />
international calls up to 87% of the postpaid price per minute (T-Mobile). As the<br />
software has been <strong>de</strong>veloped in-house the group can provi<strong>de</strong> solid margins at this<br />
new service which is expected to be around the target EBIT-margin of 30%.<br />
Growth strategy<br />
We expect <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s growth story to continue over the next years as the change<br />
in the pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l of <strong>GoYellow</strong> will further boost the company‟s earnings situation<br />
in short- to mid-term as well as the remo<strong>de</strong>ling of PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> will be supportive<br />
for the bottom line. In addition, the new switchboard service 118000 and the iPhone<br />
application CheapCalls should boost the company to a higher level both on top and<br />
bottom line. Combined with promising innovations with the switchboard service the<br />
equity story should continue positively for <strong>GoYellow</strong> in short- and on mid-term<br />
perspective.<br />
One of the key elements of <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s strategy is the extension of the product<br />
portfolio with innovations that allows increase the market share as the company will<br />
benefit from its first-mover-advantage. These benefits can not only be realised in<br />
the business mo<strong>de</strong>l of PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> in Germany but also in particular with the new<br />
switchboard service 118000 which is currently a unique business mo<strong>de</strong>l in the<br />
whole European market and leads to strong entry barriers for new market entries<br />
as <strong>GoYellow</strong> will settle all key factors (from pricing to supply of services).<br />
Although <strong>GoYellow</strong> will continue to absorb the growth potential in its existent<br />
segments, the company has the ability to move ahead by expanding the business<br />
activities or even restructure the business mo<strong>de</strong>l to improve the earnings situation<br />
(general company target: EBIT margin ~30%) and to comply with the fast-moving<br />
markets in the internet-related areas.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
The group plans to<br />
fullfill a strategic focus<br />
within the next years<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> will be<br />
remo<strong>de</strong>lled to a<br />
German Skype service<br />
118000 is ready to<br />
start within the next<br />
months and the margin<br />
situation seems very<br />
promising<br />
Cheap Calls provi<strong>de</strong>s a<br />
market adavantage<br />
resulting from the firstmover-advantage<br />
in<br />
Germany<br />
General growth<br />
strategy<br />
Overall target EBITmargin<br />
for new<br />
products is at about<br />
30%<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 21
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> also aims to maintain sustainable profitability by further focusing on its<br />
sales activities at <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> and emerging the planned VoIP-service at<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> (likewise to a German type of Skype) as well as establishing a<br />
switchboard service called 118000 as the new growth driver in <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s<br />
balanced business mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
By extending the portfolio of products <strong>GoYellow</strong> intends to handle the increasing<br />
<strong>de</strong>mand for directory enquiries without divulging multiple contact data to public<br />
directories which the company will build up within 4Q 2009 and 1Q 2010. Overall,<br />
the company plans to achieve a higher revenue and customer diversification by<br />
expanding its portfolio of standard products and at the same time lower its<br />
expenses on a favourable level to maintain a sustained profitability at solid margin<br />
levels.<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong><br />
The company has already achieved a substantial market penetration in <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s<br />
segments. With the introduction of new software configuration and improved search<br />
engine applications such as map routing or company vi<strong>de</strong>os, the group should be<br />
able to expand its market share. Overall, <strong>GoYellow</strong> addresses with its distribution<br />
channels via the yellow pages publishers nearly all relevant customer bases. The<br />
still emerging market is expected to <strong>de</strong>liver solid growth prospects over the next<br />
years as can be seen in the chart below. Furthermore, to improve the traffic and<br />
sales, the group also <strong>de</strong>ci<strong>de</strong>d to increase its activities within the social media<br />
communities like Facebook and Twitter.<br />
Customer base <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong><br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
By adjusting the pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l towards a similar paying structure as at general<br />
search engines like Google the group was able to improve its top- and bottom lines<br />
as this new structure was quickly accepted by the existing customers and the newly<br />
acquired customers which overall boosted the customer base to a higher level. The<br />
prospects for maintaining the current growth in paying customer (GoTop mo<strong>de</strong>l) are<br />
very promising as the already in its first “real” year the customer acceptance was<br />
very high. According to the company, the churn rate should settle down to about<br />
10% per year. With its new growth drivers the company should target revenue<br />
which we expect to achieve a size of EUR 13.44m and EUR 15.41m in 2009E and<br />
2010E respectively.<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> intends to extend its customer base by leveraging on competencies to<br />
expand the market share of its portfolio. In the last fiscal year the group ma<strong>de</strong> good<br />
progress from transitioning its product portfolio mix.<br />
In an industry that continually produces customer-<strong>de</strong>man<strong>de</strong>d technology, while<br />
performing on volatile business mo<strong>de</strong>ls the expenses are becoming increasingly a<br />
key competitive factor as it allows the company to remain highly innovative without<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Further focus on<br />
expanding the<br />
customer base at<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong><br />
Adjusting the pricing<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l came in at the<br />
right time<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> plans to<br />
expand the market<br />
share<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 22
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
tying up financial resources. <strong>More</strong>over, the company achieved a faster time-tomarket<br />
for its innovations like CheapCalls and the planned remo<strong>de</strong>ling of<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> as more resources can be utilised in product <strong>de</strong>velopment and<br />
commercialisation.<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong><br />
As already mentioned the group will remo<strong>de</strong>l the business mo<strong>de</strong>l of PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong><br />
to a kind of “German Skype service” within the first half year of 2010. As well as at<br />
Skype the user can use the VoIP telephony service within the service for free.<br />
However, telephone calls to external numbers will partially costs. In doing so, the<br />
group also noted to generate co-operations with other VoIp provi<strong>de</strong>rs but no further<br />
<strong>de</strong>tails has been released up to now.<br />
Overall, by implementing a VoIP service at PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> the business mo<strong>de</strong>l will<br />
become more scalable and enables further growth without major capital<br />
expenditures. This combined with streamlining the expenses structure should result<br />
in further productivity improvements. Cost saving potential at current stage at<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> are related to the telephony costs, which will be after implementing<br />
the VoIP service at almost zero costs (0.00 – 0.01 EURcents). However, since the<br />
advertising market is still on a lower level than in the previous years the upsi<strong>de</strong><br />
potential on top line is currently rather limited. Despite the limited top line growth<br />
the group should be able to get profitable within 2010E.<br />
In the past, <strong>GoYellow</strong> had a strong strategic emphasis on the expansion of its<br />
current business mo<strong>de</strong>l and neglected, to a limited extent, to utilise the full<br />
potentials arising from a highly fragmented market environment. However, over the<br />
last year this strategy focus changed towards a customer-friendly and highly-quality<br />
approach in its core-competencies with sustainable success.<br />
118000<br />
In or<strong>de</strong>r to address the needs from all social levels in Germany the group starts to<br />
implement a directory assistance service, called 118000, which will not provi<strong>de</strong> any<br />
contact data to the caller. For now, <strong>GoYellow</strong> will build up a comprehensive call<br />
centre in Greifswald which coordinates the working processes of the calls and<br />
internet applications. The group‟s focus on building up substantial capacity in this<br />
segment over the next years should make this problem of providing too much<br />
private contact <strong>de</strong>tails in public directories much more aware in Germany. Besi<strong>de</strong>s,<br />
this <strong>de</strong>velopment within this segment strategically fits into the business mo<strong>de</strong>l of<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<br />
Despite the promising potentials for <strong>GoYellow</strong> in its operational business some<br />
risks are still on the agenda. In case the directory assistance will be not successful<br />
as planned this would stress the margin situation in the group as well on the<br />
financial resources building up this service. To prevent such a scenario the<br />
company has already announced that the cost situation in this segment is on a low<br />
level and, therefore, the flop expectations are rather limited as the group has a solid<br />
margin situation on the calls (expected EUR 2 per call) and the break even calls are<br />
achievable. Up to now, we are confi<strong>de</strong>nt that <strong>GoYellow</strong> will establish this service<br />
with success to achieve profits already within the first year.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
German version of<br />
Skype<br />
After the remo<strong>de</strong>lling<br />
the business mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
becomes more<br />
scalable<br />
In the past the<br />
expansion i<strong>de</strong>as have<br />
been neglected<br />
The build up of the<br />
switchboard service<br />
displays a USP in the<br />
market<br />
Some risks are still on<br />
the agenda for 118000<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 23
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Distribution and marketing<br />
The company‟s operational future will <strong>de</strong>pend on its capability to materalise on its<br />
strong technological expertise by monetarising its sophisticated products in an<br />
economically effective way. Particularly the establishment of the distribution<br />
channels via the yellow pages publishers boosted the company towards a new<br />
level. Overall, the company aims to achieve better product awareness with its<br />
distribution and marketing acitivities.<br />
In or<strong>de</strong>r to improve the after-sales service and the relationship to its customers,<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> has ad<strong>de</strong>d resources via the publishers to their sales workforce. In doing<br />
so, the company has particularly improved the communication to the customers<br />
and therefore the customer satisfaction leads to rather low churn rate of about 10%<br />
per year.<br />
Furthermore, the group <strong>de</strong>veloped a new communication campaign which should<br />
start within 1Q 2010 as the newly established service line 118000 should launch its<br />
service in February 2010. Overall, the group has a campaign budget for 2010E<br />
amounting to about EUR 5m.<br />
Future projects<br />
The diversification of the product portfolio with the new innovations as well as the<br />
introduction of new versions of its existing products is one of the key elements of<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s strategy. The company intends to tap new niche segments and price<br />
categories which have been neglected by competitors. With the expansion of its<br />
product portfolio <strong>GoYellow</strong> aims to expand and diversify its customer basis by<br />
entering new niche segments.<br />
New innovations and further ad<strong>de</strong>d value shall not only attract new customer but<br />
also increase the incentives for existing customers. On the basis of the current<br />
R&D and production capacities, <strong>GoYellow</strong> is able to introduce new strategic i<strong>de</strong>as<br />
within one fiscal year in case the ongoing business mo<strong>de</strong>ls have to be remo<strong>de</strong>led.<br />
Given the high <strong>de</strong>gree of market saturation in its un<strong>de</strong>rlying markets for<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong>, the expansion of the product portfolio and the shift in the pricing<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l was in our opinion the right approach to achieve higher revenues in its<br />
segment. Overall, <strong>GoYellow</strong> is in a favourable position to expand its general market<br />
share over the next years.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Distribution <strong>de</strong>pends<br />
on the success of the<br />
yellow pages publisher<br />
Communication<br />
campaign in 2010 for<br />
up to EUR 5m<br />
Diversification of the<br />
product portfolio by<br />
new innovations and<br />
entering new niche<br />
segments<br />
Favourable position to<br />
expand <strong>GoYellow</strong>’s<br />
market share<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 24
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Market <strong>de</strong>velopment<br />
The local search industry is generally a very competitive and fragmented market<br />
driven by the fact that the industry is marked by consi<strong>de</strong>rable volatility in cycles<br />
where strong growth periods are followed by sharp downturns. The cycles are<br />
characterised by extreme changes in <strong>de</strong>mand and supply.<br />
Consi<strong>de</strong>ring the business mo<strong>de</strong>l of <strong>GoYellow</strong> the market environment can be<br />
divi<strong>de</strong>d into two patterns – local search and online advertising. Although the group<br />
also comprises telephony services in its business mo<strong>de</strong>l as this has been<br />
restructured and, therefore, a clear market watch can be obsolete in case the<br />
business mo<strong>de</strong>l of PeterZahlt ends up not as it is up to now expected (“German<br />
Skype service).<br />
Local search & directory assistance<br />
The trend from directory assistance to internet-related search which is noticeable<br />
over years continued in the 2008 fiscal year. According to a GfK study of October<br />
2008 already 34% of all user requests are by online search engines. The classic<br />
directory assistance business, however, is <strong>de</strong>clining in spite of an increasing<br />
<strong>de</strong>mand for more extensive services as well as advanced directory assistance<br />
solutions like the newly established service 118000 by <strong>GoYellow</strong>. This <strong>de</strong>velopment<br />
should result in capacity adjustments of <strong>GoYellow</strong> and other service provi<strong>de</strong>rs like<br />
Telegate on a short- and medium-term.<br />
In addition, according to recent figures from comScore, the use of search tools to<br />
find local businesses, products or services worldwi<strong>de</strong> grew by 58% last year to<br />
reach an annual total of 15.7bn searches. By comparison, overall U.S. Internet<br />
searches grew just by 21% to around 137bn in 2008. The data shows that more<br />
and more Internet users are logging on to find local businesses, potentially driven<br />
by the increase in use of mobile Internet and the availability of map routing like<br />
Google or <strong>GoYellow</strong>. The comScore study measured real-life Internet browsing,<br />
buying and transactional activity of approximately one million Internet users who<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>d permission to be monitored from December 2007 to December 2008.<br />
Online advertising<br />
In contrary to the US markets the European advertising markets are brighten up<br />
where interactive advertising has taken up its rightful place as a permanent feature<br />
in marketing strategies by different sectors. On the important German market, EUR<br />
350m gross advertising were channelled into the Internet in the first quarter of 2009<br />
according to Nielsen <strong>Media</strong> Research, indicating an increase of 15.1% against the<br />
previous year.<br />
The cumulated size of the European online advertising market in 2008, as counted<br />
by IAB Europe in collaboration with PwC, amounted to EUR 12.9bn. The results of<br />
the pan-European „Internet Ad Barometer 2009 survey” also indicate that the<br />
market is stabilising. According to this, 70% of the marketing <strong>de</strong>cision-makers<br />
polled wanted to increase their online expenditure further; these are the findings by<br />
the European Interactive Advertising Association (EIAA) which commissioned the<br />
survey. Growth on the Internet is likely to take place at the cost of traditional media.<br />
There is also a trend towards cross-bor<strong>de</strong>r campaigns. 16% of the marketing<br />
<strong>de</strong>cision-makers polled spend their online campaign budgets in at least two<br />
European countries. Western Europe continues to be the most attractive market for<br />
international online campaigns thanks to the comparability of culture and marketing.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
The local search<br />
industry is a very<br />
fragmented market<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>-related<br />
market divi<strong>de</strong>d into<br />
local search and online<br />
advertising<br />
The trend towards<br />
internet-related<br />
searches helps<br />
companies to further<br />
focus on the customer<br />
base<br />
Online search tools<br />
grew faster than the<br />
general search market<br />
The online advertising<br />
market is on the mend<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 25
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
France and Germany are relatively mature online advertising markets. In Italy and<br />
Spain, on the other hand, where Internet use is less wi<strong>de</strong>spread, the online ad<br />
markets are <strong>de</strong>veloping at a slower pace. There, television remains the<br />
overwhelmingly dominant advertising medium, slowing the pace of EUR moving to<br />
the Web. In all four countries, total media ad spending has plunged due to the<br />
recession. But online has been the most resilient performer throughout the<br />
downturn. Internet ad spending will post important gains in 2009 and regain<br />
momentum next year.<br />
According to the Interactive Advertising Bureau Europe (IAB Europe),<br />
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and Screen Digest, paid search has proved the<br />
most popular online ad format in these tough times, while European marketers‟<br />
commitment to display, classified ads and e-mail has been somewhat weaker.<br />
Online ad formats 2009E (dark) vs. 2010E<br />
14.0%<br />
12.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
8.0%<br />
6.0%<br />
4.0%<br />
2.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
-2.0%<br />
-4.0%<br />
-6.0%<br />
Source: IAB Europe, PWC, Screen Digest<br />
The share of ad spending going online in Europe‟s major countries varies wi<strong>de</strong>ly.<br />
Sources agree that the proportion is highest in the UK, where by one estimate it<br />
recently surpassed spending on television. GroupM reported that online advertising<br />
will account for 30% of all UK ad spending in 2009, compared with 14.3% in<br />
Germany and 11.4% in France. In Italy (7.5%) and Spain (10.8%) the percentage of<br />
online advertising is well below the worldwi<strong>de</strong> average of 13%. Besi<strong>de</strong>s, Germany's<br />
online advertising market grew by 17% in the first three quarters of the year to just<br />
un<strong>de</strong>r EUR 1.1bn, the Bitkom industry association said.<br />
Share of online advertising expenses by countries<br />
Source: GroupM<br />
8.0%<br />
11.4%<br />
The global advertising market is currently characterised by cautious investment, yet<br />
the online advertising market continues to grow, even in the crisis year of 2009.<br />
Compared with the previous year, expenditure on online advertising will rise by<br />
10% as predicted by the Circle of Online Marketers. The gross volume of<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
-0.1%<br />
4.8%<br />
-4.4%<br />
-0.5%<br />
2.2%<br />
Search Display Other formats Total<br />
6.5%<br />
France and Germany<br />
are two big advertising<br />
countries with strong<br />
bias to the online<br />
market<br />
The growth in German<br />
online ads are<br />
comparable to the big<br />
four countries in<br />
Europe<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 26
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
investment in the fields of conventional online advertising, search word marketing<br />
and affiliate networks should exceed the EUR 4bn threshold for the first time in<br />
2009. It will also be the first time that more than EUR 2bn will have been invested in<br />
conventional online advertising with an un<strong>de</strong>rlying growth rate of 10%.<br />
If estimates of OVK (Online Vermarkterkreis) are correct, affiliate marketing<br />
investment volumes will exceed EUR 300m for the first time in 2009 – the segment<br />
is exhibiting the strongest growth of all three fields, with increases of 15%. The<br />
conservative prediction that the Circle of Online Marketers ma<strong>de</strong> in spring has so<br />
far been confirmed. Compared to the advertising sector as a whole, online<br />
advertising is thus emerging from the crisis much stronger.<br />
Online advertising revenues by segments (in EURm)<br />
Source: OVK<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Search marketing has<br />
a strong growth<br />
potential in the next<br />
two years<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 27
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Competition<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> operates in a highly dynamic and competitive environment<br />
which is mainly dominated by a large number of small- and medium-sized<br />
companies. The company‟s competitive environment comprises not only those<br />
players who strictly focus on online services, but also indirect rivals from advertising<br />
and telephony market.<br />
Given the current situation in the online advertising the market has become even<br />
more competitive as the top line performance has <strong>de</strong>clined and was bur<strong>de</strong>ned by<br />
the stressed sentiment. However, <strong>de</strong>spite this momentum we are confi<strong>de</strong>nt that<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> will be able to continue its ongoing strategic path and further expand its<br />
market share.<br />
To <strong>de</strong>fine the competitive environment it has to be mentioned that <strong>GoYellow</strong> to a<br />
large extent operates in a niche segment. Therefore, it is difficult to find companies<br />
which have similar business mo<strong>de</strong>ls similarto <strong>GoYellow</strong>. Besi<strong>de</strong>s, the online market<br />
is highly competitive and characterized by rapidly changing <strong>de</strong>mand.<br />
We chose six companies whose business mo<strong>de</strong>ls are similar to <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s one to<br />
a specific <strong>de</strong>gree. We outlined the margin situation of these companies in the table<br />
below. However, as we already mentioned in the Peer Group segment from the<br />
Valuation section, Telegate, Yell and Eniro focus on the “Yellow pages” segment.<br />
There is a vast more number of companies that are involved in the general “yellow<br />
pages” unit and amongst others Pages Jaunes (France) and SEAT (Spain).<br />
Overview<br />
Source: Bloomberg, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong><br />
Within this highly fragmented market, <strong>GoYellow</strong> is positioned as a well-known<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>r with strong expertise in the German market. Apart from international<br />
operating provi<strong>de</strong>rs, the competitive landscape is mainly characterized by a large<br />
number of medium sized companies. Compared to most of its competitors,<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> still shows a very good upsi<strong>de</strong> potential in the margins as well as in the<br />
top line growth potential over the next few years.<br />
Related to the internet related expertise <strong>GoYellow</strong> has in comparison to other<br />
German “Yellow pages” provi<strong>de</strong>rs a competitive advantage as <strong>GoYellow</strong> has<br />
already installed a fast-growing search engine with high brand awareness. And<br />
since the requirements to fullfil the <strong>de</strong>mand of the needs are becoming more<br />
challenging most of the smaller provi<strong>de</strong>rs face serious challenges to <strong>de</strong>liver<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Highly dynamic and<br />
competitive<br />
environment<br />
Online advertising<br />
market became much<br />
more competitive in<br />
the last year<br />
Several well-known<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>rs dominate<br />
their home markets<br />
Smaller competitors<br />
could get serious<br />
challenges in the<br />
future<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 28
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
competitive solutions. Therefore, many of the smaller companies are expected to<br />
lose competitive ground over the next years.<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong><br />
Besi<strong>de</strong> <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong>, for the other segments it is quite difficult to <strong>de</strong>fine a clear<br />
competition. Particularly, as the group currently operates a strategic shift to a VoIP<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>r it is not clear in which direction the new PeterZahlt unit will be realigned.<br />
Therefore, it would be the easiest to compare the future PeterZahlt with known<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>rs like Skype or Jajah. However, as long as the new business mo<strong>de</strong>l of<br />
PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> is not fully comprehensible for <strong>de</strong>eper access to the competition it<br />
would make no sense at the moment.<br />
118000<br />
Regarding the switchboard service, it is even har<strong>de</strong>r to judge the competitive<br />
environment. We already mentioned that this service is very unique in the<br />
European market and therefore the competition is up to now not <strong>de</strong>termined.<br />
Cheap Calls<br />
In the segment of Cheap Calls the market is very versatile. There are a lot of<br />
smaller iPhone and other applications which are used to help the callers to save<br />
money on calls. However, in comparison to the most service provi<strong>de</strong>rs Cheap Calls<br />
are currently the only service in Germany and it is not expected that in the near<br />
future the competition will becoming stronger. Consi<strong>de</strong>ring the worldwi<strong>de</strong> market<br />
three provi<strong>de</strong>rs are a<strong>de</strong>quately comparable to Cheap Calls – Vonage.com,<br />
Truphone and Call Global whereas Truphone probably the biggest and most known<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>r of these three services. Comparing the pricing structure of these three<br />
service provi<strong>de</strong>rs with Cheap Calls the spread is to a large extent marginal.<br />
However, consi<strong>de</strong>ring the European market Cheap Calls provi<strong>de</strong>s more countries<br />
at low costs.<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Difficult to <strong>de</strong>fine a<br />
clear competitive<br />
environment as the<br />
business will be<br />
remo<strong>de</strong>lled<br />
Competition mostly<br />
from US companies<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 29
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Financials<br />
Historical financial <strong>de</strong>velopment<br />
After a long transformation phase, the company has stabilised its operative<br />
performance over the last five quarters, as a consequence of restructuring the<br />
business mo<strong>de</strong>l and tightening the strategic goals of the group. The company<br />
introduced a re<strong>de</strong>fining process of the core competencies of <strong>GoYellow</strong> until 2008<br />
and as a result achieved the turnaround.<br />
Over the period 1Q 2008 – 3Q 2009 the company experienced a top line growth of<br />
C<strong>AG</strong>R 14% and managed to become profitable. Along with steady improvement in<br />
net income and EBIT margin, the company pushed ahead with implementing a<br />
more focused business mo<strong>de</strong>l with the main target on its goyellow.<strong>de</strong> segment. In<br />
addition, the company realised its strategic plans of further expansion of the<br />
business mo<strong>de</strong>l and installed new products in the online and telephony market<br />
(PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong>, Cheap Calls, 118000 switchboard service).<br />
Revenue vs. net income (in EURm)<br />
5.00<br />
4.00<br />
3.00<br />
2.00<br />
1.00<br />
0.00<br />
-1.00<br />
-2.00<br />
-3.00<br />
2.23 2.22<br />
-0.99<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> *3Q 2008: One-off-effects (amongst others sale of GoLocal GmbH&CoKG)<br />
Currently, the company achieved a significant growth momentum after achieving a<br />
sustainable level of profitability. The <strong>de</strong>velopment of a broa<strong>de</strong>r product portfolio in<br />
new potential growth segments of the online and telephony market enabled the<br />
company to return to profitability and achieve its current sophisticated growth<br />
potential. As seen in the chart below, <strong>GoYellow</strong> boosted its EBIT-margin over 30%,<br />
which is likewise the targeted margin level for new products in the business mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
Gross profit margin vs. EBIT margin (in %)<br />
150.0%<br />
100.0%<br />
50.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
-50.0%<br />
-100.0%<br />
-150.0%<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
-1.70<br />
4.08<br />
3.29<br />
Revenues Net income<br />
4.65 4.48 4.38 4.37<br />
1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008* 4Q 2008 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 3Q 2009<br />
25.1%<br />
61.5%<br />
-19.8%<br />
68.7%<br />
90.6%<br />
13.0% 9.2%<br />
66.4%<br />
-47.6%<br />
0.47<br />
53.1%<br />
-79.1%<br />
0.88<br />
Gross Profit margin EBIT margin<br />
76.3% 77.7%<br />
1.16<br />
1.26<br />
85.1% 89.6% 93.1%<br />
-136.1%<br />
1Q 2007 2Q 2007 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 3Q 2009<br />
-0.3%<br />
16.2%<br />
C<strong>AG</strong>R of 14% in the top<br />
line<br />
Currently a significant<br />
growth momentum<br />
26.7%<br />
34.1%<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 30<br />
35.9%
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
9M 2009<br />
In 3Q 2009, the company maintained its growth momentum and was profitable for<br />
the fifth consecutive quarter. The company´s top and bottom line performance in<br />
3Q 2009 was as impressive as in the previous quarter, consi<strong>de</strong>ring the fact that the<br />
overall online advertising industry has still problems to generate a<strong>de</strong>quate revenues<br />
in this segment. <strong>More</strong>over, the third quarter was the best quarter <strong>GoYellow</strong> has<br />
ever achieved, <strong>de</strong>spite the mentioned troubles with PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> and the online<br />
advertising market.<br />
Besi<strong>de</strong>s the expan<strong>de</strong>d <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l the group also announced that<br />
Apple had accepted the Cheap Calls application for the iPhone. According to<br />
general T-Mobile mobile phone postpaid contracts the user can save up to 87% of<br />
the costs for international calls. Already 40 countries are inclu<strong>de</strong>d in the acceptance<br />
list of this application. The company has already noted that several thousand users<br />
downloa<strong>de</strong>d the application to its iPhone, however, significant data about the ARPU<br />
are not yet published.<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong> posted in the first nine months revenues of EUR 13.23m,<br />
indicating an increase of 55.3% on y-o-y basis. The growth in revenues is<br />
attributable to the expan<strong>de</strong>d sales agreements for the <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> online directory<br />
service signed in August 2008. Over the same period, gross margin was at 89.2%,<br />
corresponding to EUR 11.81m. Overall, the company achieved a net profit of EUR<br />
1.26m or EUR 0.50 per share.<br />
Net revenues for third quarter posted an increase of 7.2% in comparison to<br />
previous year by generating EUR 4.37m. The gross profit margin of 93.1% is higher<br />
than any margin ratio before. The positive net income of EUR 1.26m in 3Q 2009<br />
was not as high as the previous year, which inclu<strong>de</strong>d amongst others one-off<br />
effects from the sale of GoLocal GmbH&CoKG in 3Q 2008.<br />
The company´s cash and cash equivalents amounted to EUR 10.62m, indicating an<br />
increase of EUR 4.73m over the balance at the end of FY 2008. During the third<br />
quarter of 2009 the company generated cash from operations of EUR 2.28m,<br />
compared to a positive cash flow of EUR 1.98m recor<strong>de</strong>d in 3Q 2008. Within the<br />
third quarter of 2009 the company was able to reduce the restricted cash from EUR<br />
0.66m to EUR 0.17m.<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Growth momentum<br />
sustained in 3Q 2009<br />
On yoy revenues<br />
increased by +55.3% in<br />
9M 2009<br />
and net profit came in<br />
at EUR 1.26m<br />
Decreasing restricted<br />
cash towards EUR<br />
0.17m<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 31
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Outlook<br />
Forecast 4Q 2009E<br />
Taking into account that the fourth quarter will be as profitable as the first nine<br />
months 2009 this fiscal year will end very positively. Overall, we expect the group to<br />
achieve total revenues of EUR 17.64m, indicating a 33.9% growth yoy. Therefore,<br />
4Q revenues will amount to EUR 4.41m. The estimated gross profit margin of<br />
91.8% in 4Q leads to a margin for full year of 89.9%, corresponding to EUR<br />
15.86m.<br />
The operating profit (EBIT) of the group is expected to amount to EUR 0.92m in 4Q<br />
and, thus, EUR 5.18m in 2009E, indicating an EBIT-margin of 29.4%. Summing up<br />
all expenses, the net income attributable for sharehol<strong>de</strong>rs should be at EUR 3.80m<br />
for full year 2009E (4Q: EUR 0.50m). The reason for the lower EBIT-margin in 4Q<br />
is the expected start-up expenses for the switchboard service 118000, which are,<br />
amongst others, personnel costs for the call centre. Additionally, the ongoing slump<br />
in the advertising income at PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> will slightly bur<strong>de</strong>n the figures in the last<br />
quarter.<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
2009E – 2011E<br />
The significant growth momentum which <strong>GoYellow</strong> has achieved over the last two<br />
years should also maintain in the course of the fiscal year 2009E. In addition,<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>ring the current product portfolio (including the new units 118000 and<br />
Cheap Calls) we are convinced that <strong>GoYellow</strong> is favourably positioned for the mid-<br />
and long-term. However, the final growth impact for the group will not be clearly<br />
seen until 1H figures for 2010E.<br />
Overall, we consi<strong>de</strong>r the improved business mo<strong>de</strong>l of <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong>, in particular the<br />
change of the pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l, as the current cash cow of the group and by<br />
successfully establish the switchboard service the company yield its fruits of its<br />
first-mover-advantage in this specific area of directory assistance.<br />
Strategically, <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s target is to improve its profitability to a sustainable level<br />
which in company‟s opinion is achievable with an EBIT-margin of about 30% for the<br />
product portfolio. We believe that the company‟s growth momentum will continue<br />
and even manage to boost its top and bottom line to a higher level in the mid-term<br />
driven by the combination of following trends and assumptions:<br />
▪ Favourably positioned in the growth segments of general online services: The<br />
company currently participates in the ongoing growth in the market segment of<br />
online directory assistance. In the course of the online shift towards online<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Strong top line growth<br />
in 2009E<br />
...as well as on<br />
operating level<br />
A significant growth<br />
momentum<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> is<br />
currently a cash cow<br />
Target EBIT-margin<br />
30%<br />
Growth trends:<br />
Well positioned in the<br />
market<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 32
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
search activities the group is well positioned with its <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> unit, whose<br />
brand awareness is already high<br />
Higher revenues in its existing markets: With the new pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> has introduced, the group intends to tap in its existing market in<br />
which the group already is present. The full potential for new paying customer at<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> is not yet fully <strong>de</strong>veloped as the pricing mo<strong>de</strong>l and the marketing<br />
effects are still not as effective as it is possible. Despite the strong competition<br />
on this specific area we are convinced that <strong>GoYellow</strong> will further enhance its<br />
customer base at <strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong> and, therefore, further improve in the long run<br />
the profitability of this unit and the group as a whole<br />
General recovering of the (online) advertising market from 2H 2010E on: Since<br />
first indications about the recovery of the (online) advertising market came up to<br />
the general expectations about a recovery in this area is just a matter of time.<br />
As we are convinced that from 2H 2010E the market should succeed in<br />
overcoming the downturn PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> will benefit from this effect resulting<br />
from higher advertising revenues. Besi<strong>de</strong>s, until 2H 2010 the group will manage<br />
to restructure and remo<strong>de</strong>l PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> towards a “German Skype service”<br />
and, thus, the cost structure will already be on a lower level, corresponding to<br />
an improved bottom-line performance in the mid-term. Overall, we expect that<br />
PeterZahlt will generate revenues of EUR 4.0m in 2010E and EUR 4.75m in<br />
2011E, respectively<br />
Telephony application Cheap Calls‟ market penetration: This service in general<br />
will not be a strong growth driver for the group. However, the application is costeffective<br />
for every user (free download via AppStore and several download<br />
platforms) and has no disadvantage in return. Therefore, we believe that this<br />
service can generate revenues up to EUR 0.4m in 2011E. Despite this low<br />
share on the group‟s future growth it fits very well the product portfolio of<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong> which connects (online) directory assistance services (<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong>,<br />
118000) with telephony services (PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong>, Cheap Calls)<br />
First-mover-advantage with switchboard service 118000: Before the group will<br />
benefit from the establishment of this service <strong>GoYellow</strong> has to finance the<br />
marketing campaign they are launching next year with a marketing budget of<br />
about EUR 5m. This will have an effect on the financial statement of 2010E,<br />
which can be seen at the Appendix. Overall, resulting from this one-off expense<br />
the group will achieve an EBIT-margin of approx. 10% in 2010E. However, this<br />
investment will not bur<strong>de</strong>n the group‟s cash flow situation but boost the<br />
company‟s top and bottom line towards a higher level and should already<br />
generate a positive EBIT on quarterly basis in 2H 2009E<br />
Generally speaking this new service line will bring <strong>GoYellow</strong> up to a new level of<br />
operational performance. Additionally, as the group is the first mover on this service<br />
the chances of success are very promising. According to the management,<br />
revenues in the range of EUR 5 – 10m seems a realistic scenario for 2010.<br />
Resulting from an inscrutable revenue potential we have chosen three scenarios for<br />
the revenue potential for the switchboard service.<br />
As seen in the chart below, we regard the management figures in the scenario<br />
“Ambitious”. The two other scenarios “Optimistic” and “Conservative” are much<br />
more cautious than the prediction of the management. Overall, we <strong>de</strong>ci<strong>de</strong>d for the<br />
time being to evaluate the 118000 unit with the “Conservative” approach as long as<br />
we can clearly assess the real growth impact for the group. By doing so, revenues<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Improved exploration<br />
of the market potential<br />
Recovering in the<br />
(online) advertising<br />
market will support the<br />
performance of<br />
PeterZahlt<br />
Cheap Calls will<br />
manage to contribute<br />
profit<br />
First-mover-advantage<br />
at 118000 will boost<br />
the business mo<strong>de</strong>l to<br />
a new level<br />
Management expects<br />
revenues of EUR 5-10m<br />
at 118000<br />
Scenario mo<strong>de</strong>l to<br />
clarify the revenue<br />
potential<br />
Conservative scenario<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 33
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
of EUR 3.5m indicate about 1.75m calls, as we expect a price of EUR 2 per call.<br />
For 2011E this would correspond to 2.1m caller, indicating a growth of about 15%<br />
yoy.<br />
Scenarios for 118000 (in EURm)<br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Summing up all these growth drivers the mid-term prospects for <strong>GoYellow</strong> seems<br />
very promising. In case our “Conservative” approach fits the general view the new<br />
service could already account for about 16% of the group‟s revenues. Besi<strong>de</strong>s,<br />
from 2011E on we expect this new service to generate a positive EBIT on annual<br />
basis. This <strong>de</strong>velopment, in our opinion, should be the start into a new level of<br />
operating profitability and should show the required sustainability.<br />
Revenues by units (in EURm)<br />
30.00<br />
25.00<br />
20.00<br />
15.00<br />
10.00<br />
5.00<br />
0.00<br />
0.00<br />
4.20<br />
13.44<br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Similarly the revenue growth in 2009E the EBIT will also further rise. In comparison<br />
to the previous year, the group should achieve an EBIT of EUR 5.2m in 2009E,<br />
corresponding to an EBIT-margin of 29.4%. Despite the increasing marketing<br />
expenses in 2010E we are confi<strong>de</strong>nt that <strong>GoYellow</strong> will also be able to keep its cost<br />
structure manageable in the mid-term.<br />
Supported by a positive launch of the 118000 service in 2010E this service should<br />
firstly achieve a positive EBIT-margin on full-year figures in 2011. As the expenses<br />
for the switchboard service should be simply structured we believe that the group<br />
will achieve an EBIT-margin of 29.8% in 2011 though the marketing campaign for<br />
the new directory assistance service was effective in the advertising efforts.<br />
In the long run we are convinced that the top line growth of <strong>GoYellow</strong> will further<br />
continue and the EBIT-margin will settle down at about of 25% in 2018E, which is a<br />
conservative assumption.<br />
EBIT vs. EBIT-margin<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
3.50<br />
0.25<br />
4.00<br />
15.41<br />
4.03<br />
0.40<br />
4.75<br />
17.38<br />
2009E 2010E 2011E<br />
118000<br />
CheapCalls<br />
Peterzahlt<br />
<strong>GoYellow</strong>.<strong>de</strong><br />
Outlook seems<br />
promising<br />
From 2011E on 118000<br />
will generate profit on<br />
annual base<br />
Expected EBIT-margin<br />
in the long run at 25%<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 34
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
10.0<br />
9.0<br />
8.0<br />
7.0<br />
6.0<br />
5.0<br />
4.0<br />
3.0<br />
2.0<br />
1.0<br />
0.0<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Overall, we think the company´s growth prospects and fundamentals are very<br />
promising in the next years. <strong>GoYellow</strong> has achieved an excellent mix between<br />
existing products which just started to generate significant volume sales and<br />
promising services like 118000 and Cheap Calls. Given the company´s product<br />
portfolio we think <strong>GoYellow</strong> will successfully establish the new unit within the group<br />
and continue to maintain its growth momentum. Overall, we assumed a C<strong>AG</strong>R of<br />
83.3% in net income over the period 2008 to 2011E and project EPS of EUR 0.57,<br />
EUR 0.26 and EUR 1.00 for the fiscal years 2009E, 2010E and 2011E,<br />
respectively.<br />
EPS<br />
1.20<br />
1.00<br />
0.80<br />
0.60<br />
0.40<br />
0.20<br />
0.00<br />
-0.20<br />
-0.40<br />
9.0%<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Balance sheet & Cash Flow<br />
In view of the newly established business units and improved financial figures the<br />
balance sheet will increase over the next few years. According to our estimation,<br />
the total assets will came in at EUR 12.79m in 2009E, of which the equity will be<br />
EUR 7.91m (equity ratio: 61.8%).<br />
We also expect cash and cash equivalents to be at EUR 11.13m as of the balance<br />
sheet date. The increase of the liquid funds corresponds to the strong overall<br />
operative performance of the group. Since the group managed to become profitable<br />
again in FY2008 the cash situation eased up. As the group‟s profitability over the<br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
29.4%<br />
9.9%<br />
29.8%<br />
1.2 5.2 2.3 9.0<br />
2008 2009E 2010E 2011E<br />
-0.19<br />
0.16<br />
0.57<br />
0.26<br />
1.00<br />
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E<br />
35.0%<br />
30.0%<br />
25.0%<br />
20.0%<br />
15.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
5.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
Excellent mix in the<br />
product portfolio<br />
Equity ratio up to<br />
61.8% in 2009E<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 35
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
next years should further continue we forecast the cash liquids at EUR 17.93m at<br />
the end of FY2011E.<br />
Consi<strong>de</strong>ring the equity ratio of the group it becomes clear that in conjunction with<br />
the improved operational business the equity has also started to recover. From the<br />
current stake of about 62% the group should be able to enhance the equity ratio to<br />
75.2% in FY2011E, corresponding to total assets of EUR 21.61m and, therefore,<br />
sharehol<strong>de</strong>rs‟ equity of EUR 16.24m. Given the profitability in its un<strong>de</strong>rlying<br />
business, <strong>GoYellow</strong> should be able to further reduce the retained losses, which had<br />
been piled up over the recent years.<br />
Total assets (in EUR 1,000) vs. Equity ratio (in %)<br />
25,000<br />
20,000<br />
15,000<br />
10,000<br />
5,000<br />
35.4%<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
Overall, FY2009E has been very positive for the group both in reputation for the<br />
sharehol<strong>de</strong>rs as well as in the Cash Flow situation. Consi<strong>de</strong>ring the first nine<br />
months of the year and the performance for 4Q we expect <strong>GoYellow</strong>‟s Free Cash<br />
Flow to amount to EUR 4.79m, which will be the highest in five years. As seen in<br />
the chart the estimated Free Cash Flow of EUR 5.92m in FY 2011E will be even<br />
higher than 2009E. Despite the overall expected growth of <strong>GoYellow</strong> the Free Cash<br />
Flow in 2010E will be bur<strong>de</strong>ned by the marketing campaign for the newly<br />
established switchboard service 118000 in 2010E, which amounts to about EUR<br />
5m. Although it looks like FY2010E will stop the growth momentum of the group it is<br />
actually just the beginning of the upcoming boost to a higher level. The company<br />
will achieve this through the new business units 118000 and Cheap Calls as well as<br />
the restructured PeterZahlt.<strong>de</strong> service.<br />
Free Cash Flow <strong>de</strong>velopment (in EURm)<br />
7.00<br />
6.00<br />
5.00<br />
4.00<br />
3.00<br />
2.00<br />
1.00<br />
0.00<br />
0<br />
Source: <strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong>, CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
47.6%<br />
61.8%<br />
67.5%<br />
75.2%<br />
7,680 8,340 12,790 14,275 21,607<br />
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E<br />
2.25 2.13<br />
Total assets Equity ratio<br />
4.79<br />
0.87<br />
80.0%<br />
70.0%<br />
60.0%<br />
50.0%<br />
40.0%<br />
30.0%<br />
20.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
5.92<br />
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E<br />
Total assets at EUR<br />
21.61m in 2011E with<br />
an equity ratio of<br />
75.2%<br />
Despite marketing<br />
campaign positive Free<br />
Cash Flow in 2009E<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 36
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Appendix<br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 37
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 38
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Source: CBS Research <strong>AG</strong><br />
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag<br />
Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 39
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
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CBS and/or its employees or clients may take positions in, and may make purchases and/ or sales as principal or<br />
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BUY: The expected performance of the share price is above +10%.<br />
NEUTRAL: The expected performance of the share price trend is between +5% and +10%.<br />
SELL: The expected performance of the share price is below 5%.<br />
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Close Brothers Seydler Research <strong>AG</strong> | 40
<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
Recommendation history for the company analysed in this report:<br />
Date Recommendation Price at change date Price Target<br />
30 October 2009 BUY (Initiating Coverage) EUR 7.09 EUR 10.50<br />
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<strong>GoYellow</strong> <strong>Media</strong> <strong>AG</strong><br />
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