A Summary of Climate Change Risks for South ... - Our South West

A Summary of Climate ChangeRisks for South West EnglandTo coincide with the publication of the UK ClimateChange Risk Assessment (CCRA) 2012Climate UK/ South West 1

IntroductionThe South West is considered a special place by bothresidents and visitors alike. But it is already impacted byextreme weather events which seriously damage propertyand threaten lives. This will only get worse as ourclimate changes.Great work has been done to deepen our understandingof the impacts of climate change and we have made somepositive steps in identifying and implementing actionsto prepare for these. However, more needs to be done toensure that our landscape, businesses, local communitiesand infrastructure are resilient to the challenges ahead.Classified as the most rural English region, the SouthWest covers the largest area of all English Regions,covering 23, 851sq km. Around 5.3 million people live inthe South West, which includes Gloucestershire, Bristol,Wiltshire, Dorset, Somerset, Devon, Cornwall and theIsles of Scilly.Each year 21 million tourists visit the region,contributing £4.1 billion to its economy.Over a third of the South West comprises national parksor areas of outstanding beauty, including much of thecoastline, which includes 60% of the UK’s heritage coast.Warming to the Idea 2010 Office for National Statistics 2010UK Climate Change Risk AssessmentThe UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) is anindependent research project, funded by UK Governmentand Devolved Governments that analyses the main risksand opportunities to the UK, arising from climate changeover the coming years. It provides the underpinningevidence to inform discussions on adaptation actionneeded in such areas as infrastructure, health,environment and business. It will be updated everyfive years taking account of new climate observationsand improved understanding of future climate changeand risks.The CCRA methodology is novel in that it has allows forcomparison of over 100 risks (prioritised from an initiallist of over 700) from a number of disparate sectorsbased on the magnitude of the impact and confidence inthe evidence base. A key strength of the analysis is usinga consistent method and set of climate projections tolook at current and future risks and opportunities.The CCRA methodology has been developed througha number of stages involving expert peer review.The approach developed is a tractable, repeatablemethodology that is not dependent on changes in longterm plans between the 5 year cycles of the CCRA.The assessment considered population growth,where relevant, but did not quantify the impacts ofother societal changes on future risks, for exampledue to economic growth, or developments in newtechnologies, or the full range of planned and potentialfuture Government policies or private sector adaptationinvestment plans.Excluding these factors from the analysis provides a morerobust ‘baseline’ against which the effects of differentplans and policies can be more easily assessed. However,when utilising the outputs of the CCRA, it is essentialto consider that Government and key organisationsare already taking action in many areas to minimiseclimate change risks and these interventions need to beconsidered when assessing where further action may bebest directed or needed.2 Climate UK/ South West

Key National MessagesSome key findings show why we must act now to prepareourselves and our businesses for the future impact ofclimate change. The research reveals that without actionwe could see:-• Increases in the frequency of flooding affectingpeople’s homes and wellbeing, especially for vulnerablegroups (e.g. those affected by poverty, older people,people in poor health and those with disabilities), andthe operation of businesses and critical infrastructuresystems. Annual damage to properties in Englandand Wales, due to flooding from rivers and the sea,rises from £1.2 billion to between £2.1 billion and£12 billion by the 2080s. Without action, a range ofimportant infrastructure such as roads and railwaysmay be affected by a significantly increased risk offlooding based on future population growth and if noadaptive action is taken.• Summer overheating potentially contributing toheat-related health problems. Premature deaths dueto hotter summers are projected to increase (e.g. bybetween 580 and 5900 by the 2050s). This is likelyto place different burdens on National Health Service(NHS), public health and social care services.Other health risks that may increase include problemscaused by ground-level ozone and by marine andfreshwater pathogens.• Reductions in water availability, particularly during thesummer, leading to more frequent water use restrictionsand, in the longer term, water shortages. The gapbetween demand and availability will potentiallywiden, impacting homes, businesses, schools andhospitals. By the 2050s, between 27 million and59 million people in the UK may be living in areasaffected by water supply-demand deficits (based onexisting population levels). Adaptation action will beneeded to increase water efficiency across all sectorsand decrease levels of water abstraction in thesummer months.This pack was commissioned to coincide with thepublication of the UK’s first Climate Change RiskAssessment. While drawing on the CCRA where thereis regional or local information (which at times islimited due to lack of data) this pack presents a localperspective of the CCRA risks and opportunities.The pack offers an illustration of what climate changemeans for people, businesses, community groups, localauthorities, and other organisations across key sectors,at the local level, highlighting what is already happeningand where there is a strong case for greater local action.Detailed results from the CCRA are presented in:• An extensive and comprehensive UK CCRA EvidenceReport;• A suite of technical reports on 11 key sectors.• The UK CCRA: Government Report, which highlightsactions already in place to manage the risk identifiedin the CCRA, and outlines UK Government plans for thefuture.To read these publications, please visit: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/government/Climate UK/ South West 3

Key Risks and ImplicationsSome Key Regional Climate Implications• There is a high proportion of SMEs in the South West, which are particularly vulnerableto the impacts of climate change, but they are generally less knowledgeable and less wellprepared than larger businesses• Tourist assets in the South West are susceptible to costal and fluvial flooding• Weather is among the top factors most likely to limit business activity in the touristindustryBusiness• Heat related premature deaths potentially show a large increase in the South West• An increase in UVB radiation flux may increase the risk of skin cancers• More research is needed on the effects of climate change and health, for example healthinequalities and the impact of extreme weather on metal healthHealth and WellbeingBuildings andInfrastructure• Changes in extreme weather conditions will impact on infrastructure, in particularthrough storm damage, flooding and high temperatures• Expected Annual Damages for residential properties at risk of flooding is expected to besignificant in the South West• Flooding of transport, including roads and rail is likely to increase, affecting both urbanand rural access routesAgriculture andForestry• Increased temperatures and reduced summer rainfall could impact on agricultural yields,and lead to restrictions in agricultural abstractions• The risk of tidal flooding of good quality agricultural land in the South West could besignificant• The risk of wildfires is expected to increase in the South West, particularly within theParks such as Exmoor and DartmoorNatural Environment• The distribution of blanket peat in the South West is expected to decrease, significantlyimpacting on ecosystem biodiversity and other services this habitat provides• A reduction in summer flows is likely to be significant, with the potential of someheadwaters drying up completely in the summer months• Increased winter rainfall may lead to greater runoff and delivery of pathogens to shellfishwaters• Fish such as Salmon will be at risk due to increased water temperatures, and thermal andsalinity changes in the ocean as a result of climate change4 Climate UK/ South West

Key Risks and ImplicationsKey National Risks from the UK CCRA 2012• Climate change represents a potentially significant issue for all UK business sectors.• Main climate challenges to businesses include flooding and coastal erosion, increasedcompetition for water, and disruption of transport and communication links.• The degree to which individual organisations are affected depends upon their level ofvulnerability and adaptive capacity.• There are potentially significant commercial and competitive advantages to be gained forthose businesses taking on the challenge.Business• Climate change could have significant implications for the health and wellbeing of theUK population.• Implications affect public health, the continuity of health and social care services bothwithin the NHS and beyond, the resilience of local emergency services, and the mostsocially vulnerable.• There may be some welcome benefits, but there are likely to be outweighed by a range ofnegative effects.Health and Wellbeing• The built environment and infrastructure are already vulnerable to extreme weather such as flooding,storms, heatwaves, and droughts.• Most of today’s buildings were designed for the climate that existed when they were built and arenot necessarily equipped to cope with current and future climates.• Around 70% of buildings that will be in use in the 2050s already exist, but there maybe opportunities for innovative building services and urban planning in the UK and overseas.• The government has already prioritised the need to improve the long-term resilience of newand existing infrastructure networks in the energy, ICT, transport and water sectors.Buildings andInfrastructure• Agriculture and forestry are sensitive to climatic conditions; changes in climate have a profoundimpact on productivity and economic viability.• Climate change may alter the impact that agriculture and forestry have on the natural environmentand the value of the ecosystem services provided.• Warmer temperatures and carbon fertilisation may present some opportunities to increase yields,in the short term.• Low water availability in the summer, increased flooding and coastal erosion, increased prevalenceof pests diseases, and frequent wildfires may limit opportunities in the longer term.Agriculture andForestry• Climate change may exacerbate and/or alter the pressures placed on the naturalenvironment, especially those caused by human activity.• Heightened impacts may in turn affect the way humans are able to use the environment– for example growing crops or obtaining high quality drinking water.• The natural environment is crucial to our ability to adapt, reducing flood risk, coolingcities and storing water.Natural EnvironmentClimate UK/ South West 5

BusinessOf the 400,000 business based in the South West 99%are SMEs, with fewer than 250 employees. Research hasshown that SMEs are most vulnerable to the impacts ofclimate change, but are the least knowledgeable andleast well prepared.A Climate South West business survey in 2011identified that:• 63% of businesses have taken some kind of action toprepare for extreme weather. However, 37% have takenno action, despite many of them experiencing effectsin the past, including; lost customers, repair costs andhealth and safety issues.• Smaller businesses were less likely to have taken actionthan larger businesses.When asked what was preventing them taking action,the survey found that larger businesses were morelikely to see the issue as relevant to them than smallerbusinesses. Other factors cited as barriers included lackof financial resources, that there was little more theycould do to prepare, or that particularly in the case ofdisruption to transport from snow and ice, it was out oftheir control.Tourism is a big part of the economy in the South Westand there are a number of challenges (and opportunities)specific to this sector. The South West of England isBritain’s most popular holiday destination, with UKresidents alone making over 20 million trips to theregion in 2007 (Visit Britain, 2007). The South West hasa resident population of 5.3 million. There were 21.2million staying and 96.8 million day visitors in 2008,spending over £9 billion (2008) – approx 8% of GVA.Tourism supports approx 300,000 jobs.Industry research shows the weather amongst the topfactors most likely to limit business activity in thetourism industry. Monitoring and planning for projectedchanges in weather and climate would seem to beimportant to the industry and in business planning.Warming to the Idea: building resilience to extreme weather andclimate change in the South West. Climate SouthWest summary report2010Extreme Weather and Business in the South West: September 2011:http://www.oursouthwest.com/climate/tools.htm#buValue of Tourism Survey 2008). Each year 21million tourists visit theregion, contributing £4.1billion to its economy. (source: UK tourismsurvey 2009South West Tourism UKCP09 Case Study 2010 – ‘Cost-a South West:What could tomorrow’s weather and climate look like for tourism in theSouth West of England?6 Climate UK/ South West

Threats• Reduced water availability: Water abstraction isprojected to be more constrained in the South Westdue to potential shortages in water supply. This maypose challenges for industrial abstractions. 1• Although tourist assets are dispersed across the UK,there are concentrations in certain locations, forexample along the coast and rivers. This makes themparticularly susceptible to coastal (sea level rise andstorm) and fluvial (river) flooding.• Using UKCP09 data and work carried out by the CCRAFloods sector 3 it has been projected that the riskto tourism assets currently located in Flood Zone 3zone may change in the future, with 1 in 100 yearflood events likely to become approximately twice asfrequent by the 2050s and 3-5 times more frequent bythe 2080s (average UK estimates based on the mediumemissions scenario and p50 estimate)• The CCRA shows that 3 to 16 km 2 (300-1600 hectares)of beach is projected to be lost by the 2020s, rising tobetween 12 and 61 km 2 (1,200 – 6,100 hectares) bythe 2080s, which is between approximately 3% and 7%of total beach area. 3• The number of lost production days per year peremployee for days exceeding 28oC is projectedto increase, with as much as a doubling in lostproductivity as by the 2020s. By the 2050s the centralestimate is for a 3-fold increase, on average, increasingto an average increase of 8-9 times for the highemissions scenarios.• Flooding and other extreme events can significantlyaffect business premises, and the infrastructure onwhich they rely.Opportunities• Research shows that Tourism Climate Index (TCI,based on a number of factors including comfort andseasonality) scores were projected to improve forthe whole region for both the 2020s and 2050s.The improvement in TCI is particularly marked andby the 2050s a large proportion of the South Westachieves the “ideal” TCI score for the months of Julyand August.• The projected TCI improvement is greatest for themonths of June and September, with a reduction inthe seasonality, which has the potential to widenthe “holiday” season. This in turn could mean morevisitors, not only throughout the season but also atpeak times – which presents both a challenge and anopportunity.• There is a strong upward trend in tourism expenditurecompared to the baseline,. An average of 80% oftourism expenditure in each region will be attributableto the increase in domestic tourism.• Total tourism expenditure in the South Westattributable to climate and socio-economic change isexpected increase by 3 fold between the 2020s and2050s (0.36 – 1.53 billion/year) and by 4 fold bythe 2080s (0.36 – 1.83 billion/year). (Under mediumemissions scenario compared to a 2005 baseline)1 - South West Tourism, 20102 - Metroeconomica, 2006a3 - UK CCRA 2012: Floods Sector ReportThe locations of industrial abstractions and their relative size distributionacross England and Wales. (UK CCRA 2012)TCI for central estimate of the high emissions scenario(South West Tourism, 2010) (UK CCRA 2012)Climate UK/ South West 7

Health and Well-beingClimate Change is already impacting on our healthand could exacerbate incidences of skin cancer andrespiratory disease. With the South West having a greaterproportion of inhabitants of pensionable age than allother regions, and with the proportion set to grownationally and regionally, this presents some specificchallenges.While primary affects of climate change on health arewell recognised, attention also needs to be focused onthe related social effects including health inequalitiesand the impact of extreme events on mental healthWarming to the Idea: building resilience to extreme weatherand climate change in the South West. Climate SouthWest summaryreport 20108 Climate UK/ South West

Threats• Regionally, estimates of heat related premature deathsshow a large increase relative to current day estimatesfor the South West. The increases are significant andindicate that further adaptation may be needed in themedium term, particularly in large urban areas (whichare affected by the urban heat island effect) and inhospitals and schools.• Although the benefits from reduced cold far outweighthe adverse risks from heat, this balance noticeablynarrows by the 2080s.• There is evidence that an increase in UVB radiation fluxassociated with climate change, and potentially theincidence of skin cancers, may be largest in southernEngland. An increase in melanoma risk of up to 20% ispossible by the end of the century.• Increase in the magnitude of winter flash floods,particularly in the south of England where significantincreases in winter rainfall are projected.Opportunities• A reduction in cold-related mortality and morbidity hasmore of an effect in the South West of England.Premature deaths (heat) per year for the UKUKCP09 Medium Emissions scenario for the 2020s and Low, Medium andHigh Emissions scenarios for the 2050s (current population, baselineperiod: 1993-2006, no acclimatisation) (UK CCRA 2012)Climate UK/ South West 9

Buildings and InfrastructureThe South West’s physical infrastructure – including it’sbuildings, bridges, power lines, roads and railways – isvulnerable to most aspects of climate change. Changesin extreme conditions will have the greatest impact oninfrastructure, though flooding, storm damage and hightemperatures. 70% of buildings that will be here in the2050s have already been built, making it essential toretrofit existing buildings as well as integrate adaptationmeasures into new builds. There are specific challengesfor historic and listed buildings, of which the South Westhas nearly a quarter of all England’s listed buildings andover a third of the scheduled ancient monuments.The two main arterial routes into and out of the SouthWest are the M5 motorway and the London – Penzancerailway line. Both are already being affected by floodingevents.For example in the 2007 Gloucestershire Floods, nearly6000 properties were flooded, 10,000 people weretrapped on the M5 and railways, 42,000 were withoutpower for 42 hours and 350,000 were without water forup to 17 days. While the railway around Dawlish is at riskof coastal erosion and sea level rise.Warming to the Idea: building resilience to extreme weather andclimate change in the South West. Climate SouthWest summary report2010 accessible:http://www.oursouthwest.com/climate/scopingstudy.htmImpact of flooding on residential property. EAD (£ millions) of propertiesat significant risk of flooding (river and tidal flooding) (UK CCRA 2012)10 Climate UK/ South West

Threats• The South West has the second highest ExpectedAnnual Damages (EAD), for residential properties atrisk of flooding. The biggest projected increases in thefuture are also in the South West of England.• The South West has a great length of roads andrailways at significant likelihood of river and tidalflooding. Flooding of transport infrastructure and theassociated disruption is projected to increase, affectingboth urban and rural access routes.• Significant sections of track in the South West rundirectly along the coast; these are already vulnerableto coastal flooding and are likely to be increasingly atrisk without enhanced flood defences.• Extreme heat can cause rail buckling in train tracks, atminimum resulting in speed restrictions and, at worst,causing derailments.• An increase in summer temperatures may increase thesag of overhead power cables, adding to the risk ofdamage to infrastructure and vehicles.• Hotter, drier summers may increase the seasonal soilshrinkage, necessitating increased maintenance levelsfor rail lines.• The number of days per year at risk of overheatingin South West non-domestic buildings is projectedto increase by up to 9 days by the 2020s, 21 days bythe 2050s and 39 days by the 2080s. (under mediumemissions scenarios central estimate, with Tmax 26oC)• With changes in water resource availability, there arespecific concerns about vulnerable groups and theaffordability of water. While the South West is lessaffected by supply demand deficits than other regions,at present, water utility bills are highest in the SouthWest of England.Opportunities• Cooling degree days (CDDs; The day-by-day sum of themean number of degrees by which the air temperatureis more than a value of 22 °C) are projected toincrease, with much greater impacts in SouthernEngland, where it is projected to rise from 25 and 50and to between 125 and 175 degree days in the 2080s.• Heating degree days (HDD) are projected to decreasein step with changes in winter temperature withimmediate impacts in the short term. In the long term(2080s) HDD in Southern England are projected to be50% lower than the 1961-1990 period.Impact of flooding on transport infrastructure. (UK CCRA 2012)Climate UK/ South West 11

Agriculture and ForestryRisk of P.ramorum derived from three different models. (UK CCRA 2012)One of the South West’s greatest assets is it’s naturalenvironment, which supports over 12% of businesses inagriculture and related sectors. Agriculture accounts for70% of the SouthWest’s land use by area (1.2m hectaresin 2009) and employs 3.1% of the regional workforce.Agriculture and associated activities play a major rolein maintaining the South West’s distinctive and variedlandscape.Mean summer temperatures are projected to increaseby 3-5 oC in the eastern parts of the region, though byless than this in most of Devon and Cornwall (UKCP092050 high and 2080s Medium and High emissionscenarios with 50% probability). Combined with reducedsummer rainfall by between 20 and 40% of ‘baseline’amounts, this would inevitably lead to greatly reducedsoil moisture and reduced grass growth during summer.Effects would be greatest on soils with low soil moistureretention (over chalk, limestone, sandstone; stony soilsand shallow soils).Climate change risks and adaptation responses foragriculture must be considered in a wider context,including social and economic pressures on UK farming.The sector will need to respond to a changing climate,in order to manage risks and benefit from opportunities.Warming to the Idea: building resilience to extreme weatherand climate change in the South West. Climate SouthWest summaryreport 2010Area of land affected in the South West (ha)Agricultural Land (Grade)2020s 2050s 2080s1 0 1 12 4 14 263 193 648 1166(The figures in this table use the UKCP09 medium emissions scenario at p50) (UK CCRA 2012)12 Climate UK/ South West

Threats• Higher Potential Soil Moisture Deficits are important aswater availability may limit increases in production inthe medium to long term.• Reductions in summer river flows, could lead torestrictions on agricultural abstractions - projectionssuggest that a 17% reduction in summer river flows inthe South West of England are possible by 2050. 1• For much of Southern England wildfire risks, shown byincreased fire index values across the UK, are movingto an index of moderate risk. Within the national parksof the South West, the McArthur Forest Fire DangerIndex between the 1980s and 2080s show an increaseof 40-50% by the 2080s.• Projections suggest that increased yields of between12-33% could be seen by the 2020s.• The risks of tidal flooding on good quality agriculturalland are expected to be high in the South West.Opportunities• The most suitable areas for growing energy crops likeMiscanthus (a high biomass generating herbaceousspecies) in the UK would be the warmer areas of thesouth, and west.• A longer growing season in southern England mayenable more ‘continental’ crops such as grape vines,herbs and sunflowers to be grown.• Grassland systems exhibit sensitivity to rises intemperature; but with warming temperatures yieldsof grass-clover swards could increase by approximately15% per degree of warming.• Projections suggest that increased yields ofapproximately 33% by the 2020s could be seen.• Large areas of forest could become suitable fordifferent tree species to those that are currentlygrown.Areas of high quality agricultural land projected to flood frequently undera range of future UKCP09 scenarios. (UK CCRA 2012)1 - UK CCRA 2012: Water Sector ReportClimate UK/ South West 13

Threats• As the South is projected to become drier and hotter,plant growth may become suppressed, to a small degreein the larger plants, but to greater degree in mosses andfungi.• Ground water stores including bogs and marshes maybecome drier. This could have a significant impact onecosystem biodiversity and the services it provides.• The UK is projected to become warmer in the summermonths, with the highest increases projected in southernEngland. These changes would impact on various processesoccurring at the interface of land, freshwater and seawaterenvironments, namely:- Altering the magnitude and seasonality of pathogensdischarged into the sea from pollution sources situatedon land- Modifying the mechanisms of transport of pathogensacross coastal catchments- Modifying mixing, dispersion and sedimentationof microbes in tidal waters- Altering biological factors determining the survivalof microbes.• Future projects of blanket peat distribution (like thosefound in Dartmoor and Exmoor National Parks) suggest ashrinking of the suitable bioclimate areas.• The risk to salmon is identified as greatest in southernEngland with those rivers inferred to experience thehighest temperatures. Salmon will face additional risksespecially due to thermal and salinity changes in theoceans.• Increased rainfall may lead to greater runoff anddelivery of pathogens to shellfish waters. This has beenexperienced in the Dart catchment. It is expected this riskwill increase in the future as water flows increase inthe winter.• In the long term (2080s), a reduction in summer flows islikely to be significant across the UK with large reductionsprojected to be greatest in the south of England.• Headwaters might dry up completely in summer monthsand there could be wholesale changes to iconic riversystems, such as chalk rivers in the south of England.• Projected changes to peak river flow (compared withbaseline 2010 figures) are expected to change by up to41% in the 2050s and up to 60% in the 2080s.• A general increase in pressure on environmental flows maybe experienced first in the South West and Severn basins.The spread of results is from positive to negative in the2020s but almost entirely negative for the 2050s.• South West England has a decrease of 71% in the numberof WFD compliant water bodies by the 2020s, which thendecreases slightly further to 84% by the 2050s and 85%by the 2080s.• Coastal grazing marsh is projected to lose 30 ha in SouthWest England (Medium emissions scenario, p50 for 2080s).• Under the total projected habitat losses, deciduouswoodland is projected to lose the greatest area of habitat.At the upper extreme estimate losses could rage from 98to 130 ha for the South West of England.• Modelling of future distribution of 35 species forthe period 2070-2099 suggested that most northerlydistributed [butterfly] species may disappear from areas inthe south, resulting in reduced range size. 1Opportunities• Southerly distributed species will have the potentialto shift northwards, resulting in similar or increasedrange sizes. However, 30 of the 35 species modelled arethought to have failed to track recent climate changesdue to a lack of suitable habitat, and when this istaken into account, the model predicted 65% and 24%declines in range sizes for northern and southern speciesrespectively. 11 - Hill et al 2002Climate UK/ South West 15