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<strong>The</strong> <strong>Smartness</strong> <strong>Barometer</strong> -<br />

<strong>How</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>quantify</strong> <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects and<br />

interpret results<br />

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />

A EURELECTRIC paper<br />

F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 2


<strong>The</strong> Union of the Electricity Industry–EURELECTRIC is the sec<strong>to</strong>r association representing the common interests of<br />

the electricity industry at pan-European level, plus its affiliates and associates on several other continents.<br />

In line with its mission, EURELECTRIC seeks <strong>to</strong> contribute <strong>to</strong> the competitiveness of the electricity industry, <strong>to</strong><br />

provide effective representation for the industry in public affairs, and <strong>to</strong> promote the role of electricity both in the<br />

advancement of society and in helping provide solutions <strong>to</strong> the challenges of sustainable development.<br />

EURELECTRIC’s formal opinions, policy positions and reports are formulated in Working Groups, composed of<br />

experts from the electricity industry, supervised by five Committees. This “structure of expertise” ensures that<br />

EURELECTRIC’s published documents are based on high-quality input with up-<strong>to</strong>-date information.<br />

For further information on EURELECTRIC activities, visit our website, which provides general information on the<br />

association and on policy issues relevant <strong>to</strong> the electricity industry; latest news of our activities; EURELECTRIC<br />

positions and statements; a publications catalogue listing EURELECTRIC reports; and information on our events and<br />

conferences.<br />

EURELECTRIC pursues in all its activities the application of<br />

the following sustainable development values:<br />

Economic Development<br />

Growth, added-value, efficiency<br />

Environmental Leadership<br />

Commitment, innovation, pro-activeness<br />

Social Responsibility<br />

Transparency, ethics, accountability<br />

Dépôt légal: D/2012/12.105/8


<strong>The</strong> <strong>Smartness</strong> <strong>Barometer</strong> – <strong>How</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>quantify</strong> <strong>smart</strong><br />

<strong>grid</strong> projects and interpret results<br />

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />

DSO Coordination for <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> Deployment<br />

LANDECK Erik (DE) Chair<br />

BIRKNER Peter (DE); BREUER Andreas (DE); CARILLO Susana (ES); DE LICHTERVELDE Ferdinand (BE); DI<br />

NAPOLI Mariangela (IT); DISKIN Ellen (I E); EFTHYMIOU Venizelos (CY); GLEICH Tomas (CZ); HALLBERG Per<br />

(SE); JASPER Jörg (DE); KABS Joachim (DE); KOPONEN Ari (FI); KUDRNAC Jiri (CZ); LEFORT Michel (BE);<br />

MERKEL Marcus (DE); MESSIAS António Aires ( PT); NORDENTOFT Niels Christian (DK); PETRONI Paola Lucia<br />

(IT); PETTERSSON Anders (SE); POSTMA Andre (NL); REISSING Thomas (DE); ROZYCKI Artur (PL); S ANCHEZ<br />

FORNIE Miguel Angel (ES); SCHEIDA Karl (AT); SMITH Paul (GB); TENSCHERT Walter (AT); THEISEN Thomas<br />

(DE); VANBEVEREN Donald (BE); WEISS Bertram (AT)<br />

Contact:<br />

Koen Noyens, Advisor Networks Unit – knoyens@eurelectric.org


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5<br />

1. INTRODUCTION – IDENTIFYING THE NEED TO QUANTIFY SMART GRIDS 6<br />

1.1 WHY DO WE NEED QUANTIFICATION? 6<br />

1.2 WHAT DELIVERABLES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUCH QUANTIFICATION? 6<br />

1.3 WHERE TO GO WITH THE SMART GRID DEVELOPMENT: UNIVERSALLY ACCEPTED BENEFITS 8<br />

2. SMART GRID COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY 10<br />

2.1 BACKGROUND 10<br />

2.2 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE EPRI METHODOLOGY 11<br />

2.3 THE DETAILED SEVEN-STEP APPROACH 12<br />

STEP 1 – DESCRIBE THE TECHNOLOGIES, ELEMENTS AND GOALS OF THE PROJECT 13<br />

STEP 2 – IDENTIFY THE SMART GRID FUNCTIONALITIES 15<br />

STEP 3 – MAP EACH FUNCTIONALITY ONTO A STANDARDISED SET OF BENEFIT TYPES 17<br />

STEP 4 – ESTABLISH THE PROJECT BASELINE 19<br />

STEP 5 – QUANTIFY AND MONETISE THE IDENTIFIED BENEFITS AND BENEFICIARIES 21<br />

STEP 6 – QUANTIFY AND ESTIMATE THE RELEVANT COSTS 25<br />

STEP 7 – COMPARE COSTS TO BENEFITS 26<br />

3. HOW TO EXTRAPOLATE PROJECT RESULTS TO THE NATIONAL LEVEL? 30<br />

3.1 THE GRID AND ITS LIMITATIONS 30<br />

3.2 STEPS TO EVALUATE BASE COST 31<br />

3.3 KEY ASSUMPTIONS 32<br />

4. CONCLUSION AND GUIDELINES 34<br />

4.1 PROJECT LEADERS: EVALUATING A PROJECT 34<br />

4.1.1 EVALUATING A COMPLETED PROJECT 34<br />

4.1.2 AIDING PROJECT PLANNING 35<br />

4.1.3 THE CRITICAL ROLE OF COST / BENEFIT ANALYSES – DEPLOYMENT PROPOSALS 36<br />

4.2 REGULATORS & POLICYMAKERS: HOW TO MAKE INFORMED INVESTMENT DECISIONS 36<br />

4.2.1 THE EVOLVING ROLE OF THE REGULATOR 36<br />

4.2.2 WHAT IS A “SMART” INVESTMENT? 37<br />

4.2.3 EXTRACTING INFORMATION FROM OTHER PROJECTS IN EUROPE AND BEYOND 37<br />

4.3 HOW DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES AND REGULATORS CAN HELP WORK TOGETHER 38<br />

4.4 EUROPEAN FUNDING SOLUTIONS 38


Executive Summary<br />

‘Smart Grid’ solutions will only be considered as alternatives <strong>to</strong> conventional network<br />

reinforcement if inves<strong>to</strong>rs can compare such investments on a cost-benefit basis. Yet such<br />

comparisons remain challenging for two reasons: the rapidly developing and largely untested<br />

nature of ‘<strong>smart</strong>’ solutions and the difficulty of comparing two inherently different types of<br />

investment both aimed at achieving the same purpose – reinforcing distribution networks <strong>to</strong><br />

increase capacity and improve power quality, supply security and efficiency.<br />

This paper details the challenge facing the electricity distribution industry in evaluating <strong>smart</strong><br />

<strong>grid</strong> investments, both demonstration projects and large-scale deployments. It explains the need<br />

for a consistent framework allowing for such evaluation and cost-benefit analysis so that<br />

industry, regula<strong>to</strong>rs or potential inves<strong>to</strong>rs can make informed decisions on the benefits and<br />

effectiveness of a ‘<strong>smart</strong>’ investment.<br />

<strong>The</strong> evaluation method presented in this document has been developed by the Electric Power<br />

Research Institute (EPRI) and has been adapted <strong>to</strong> the <strong>smart</strong>-<strong>grid</strong> work underway in Europe.<br />

Adjustments include neglecting steps deemed beyond the necessary scope of such an analysis,<br />

and adopting the terminology defined by the European Commission Expert Group 1. This aims <strong>to</strong><br />

ensure that the methodology can be applied consistently across Europe and adheres <strong>to</strong> EU<br />

standards currently under development.<br />

<strong>The</strong> proposed evaluation methodology consists of seven steps, starting from a description of a<br />

project’s goals and eventually resulting in a direct comparison of costs and benefits. <strong>The</strong> paper<br />

describes each step and then gives practical examples from the InovGrid project, an open<br />

platform integrating end users, public standards and vendors’ interoperable solutions, led by the<br />

Portuguese distribution system opera<strong>to</strong>r EDP Distribução <strong>to</strong> inform the adaption of the<br />

methodology for its application in Europe. <strong>The</strong> work builds on intensive collaboration between<br />

EURELECTRIC and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC).<br />

<strong>The</strong> paper finds that the methodology can support distribution companies and regula<strong>to</strong>rs in<br />

evaluating and comparing different types of ‘<strong>smart</strong>’ investments, communicating their results<br />

and developing investment strategies which incorporate ‘<strong>smart</strong>’ investment options where<br />

appropriate. <strong>The</strong> methodology can clearly help <strong>to</strong> show which technological solutions work –<br />

and which do not. Moreover, it allows for meaningful comparisons between different types of<br />

projects installed in different systems across Europe. Inves<strong>to</strong>rs receive a clear idea of the value<br />

of their initial investment; and in contrast <strong>to</strong> other approaches this methodology also pinpoints<br />

who will benefit from the investment – a useful <strong>to</strong>ol for distribution companies looking <strong>to</strong><br />

reassure regula<strong>to</strong>rs that ‘<strong>smart</strong>’ <strong>grid</strong> investments will benefit society at large.<br />

<strong>The</strong> paper thus concludes that the described evaluation method is potentially suited <strong>to</strong> purpose,<br />

although the authors recognise that this is an evolving field. <strong>The</strong> JRC are currently further<br />

developing this methodology and evaluating <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> development in Europe, and are also<br />

engaged in reconciling EU and American terminology. In the meantime, success criteria and<br />

realistic business cases based on intensive pilots are vital <strong>to</strong> raise awareness of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

investment needs among public and private stakeholders at national and European level. <strong>The</strong><br />

methodology presented in this paper provides a basis for evaluating such pilots and for<br />

extrapolating the combined contribution of several such <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects <strong>to</strong> national and<br />

European energy policy targets.<br />

5


1. Introduction – Identifying the Need <strong>to</strong> Quantify Smart Grids<br />

1.1 Why do we need quantification?<br />

<strong>The</strong> <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> is an enabler, not an end in itself. It is accepted worldwide that an<br />

implementation of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s is absolutely necessary in order <strong>to</strong> achieve the strategic<br />

targets for integration of renewable energy sources in the most effective manner, a more<br />

secure, sustainable electricity supply, optimal and efficient use of energy and full inclusion of<br />

consumers in the electricity market.<br />

At the same time, investments for the development of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s should be financially<br />

sound. Market forces must see real financial returns in achieving these energy policy goals <strong>to</strong><br />

incentivise the continued significant investments which will be required over the coming<br />

decades.<br />

As a consequence, the quantification of costs, benefits and their allocation <strong>to</strong> the<br />

appropriate beneficiaries is necessary <strong>to</strong> identify and mitigate business risks and encourage<br />

inves<strong>to</strong>rs. <strong>The</strong> process proposed is a methodological framework that will provide a<br />

standardised approach for estimating the benefits and costs of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> demonstration<br />

projects or subsequent larger scale deployments. Policymakers, regula<strong>to</strong>rs and inves<strong>to</strong>rs are<br />

in need of such a methodology meeting the following requirements:<br />

� A fair, consistent, repeatable and methodological approach <strong>to</strong> estimate the cost<br />

and benefits of <strong>smart</strong> network pilot projects and related investments based on<br />

data from <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> field demonstration projects;<br />

� Identification and standard definition of the various types of benefits;<br />

� A consistent and uniform approach for all projects and deployments;<br />

� Basic principles for developing (a) computational <strong>to</strong>ol(s) that all <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

stakeholders could use <strong>to</strong> determine the costs and benefits of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

deployments.<br />

In outlining the thought process, approach, and underlying concepts and assumptions of the<br />

proposed methodology, we aim <strong>to</strong> aid the attainment of these goals and would support the<br />

creation of a computational <strong>to</strong>ol <strong>to</strong> enhance the work of the users.<br />

1.2 What deliverables can be expected from such quantification?<br />

<strong>The</strong> adopted methodology is intended as an assessment process <strong>to</strong> be universally accepted<br />

and consistently applied providing two separate deliverables. Both deliverables contribute <strong>to</strong><br />

the ‘<strong>Smartness</strong> <strong>Barometer</strong>’ concept, which captures the idea how this technological<br />

advancement in electricity <strong>grid</strong>s achieves the set strategic European policy goals:<br />

6


1. <strong>The</strong> definition of “performance indica<strong>to</strong>rs” <strong>quantify</strong>ing the extent <strong>to</strong> which a<br />

specific <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project is contributing <strong>to</strong> progress <strong>to</strong>ward the “ideal <strong>smart</strong><br />

<strong>grid</strong>”. 1 This output reveals <strong>to</strong> what extent a project or deployment achieves the<br />

following <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> services (characteristics) as defined by EC expert group 1:<br />

� Integration of new users and requirements for sustainability,<br />

� Consumer inclusion,<br />

� Improving market functioning and consumer service,<br />

� Enhancing efficiency in day <strong>to</strong> day <strong>grid</strong> operation,<br />

� Enhancing better planning of future investments, and<br />

� Ensuring network security / control / quality of supply<br />

An assessment framework <strong>to</strong> qualitatively capture the impact of a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

project on the considered electricity system (in terms of the delivery of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

services) is recognised as an important feature, but is beyond the scope of this<br />

paper. 2 <strong>How</strong>ever, the authors recognise the importance of such a framework and<br />

the complementary value it can bring <strong>to</strong> the quantitative results of a cost-benefit<br />

analysis (CBA).<br />

2. A “Cost and Benefit analysis” assessing the profitability of a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> solution and<br />

associated investment. An essential outcome of this analysis is the identification of<br />

the specific beneficiaries. Benefits from <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investments accrue throughout<br />

the value chain from genera<strong>to</strong>rs, suppliers and cus<strong>to</strong>mers <strong>to</strong> society as a whole.<br />

This is why economic regulation defining the conditions for the so-called<br />

socialisation of a major part of the investments is key for the successful<br />

implementation of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s. Too narrow a view when evaluating the cost<br />

efficiency of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investments – <strong>to</strong> be undertaken mainly by DSOs – should be<br />

avoided.<br />

This paper aims <strong>to</strong> outline the first step <strong>to</strong>wards the effective attribution of costs<br />

and benefits, necessary <strong>to</strong> the development of a successful market-based approach<br />

<strong>to</strong> govern the evolution of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s and achieve all related strategic policy goals.<br />

<strong>The</strong> objective is <strong>to</strong> define the methodological approach for conducting such costbenefit<br />

analyses of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects. Moreover, it provides project leaders with<br />

guidance in establishing a broad approach in their cost-benefit analyses for <strong>smart</strong><br />

<strong>grid</strong>s, taking indirect benefits and social fac<strong>to</strong>rs in<strong>to</strong> consideration.<br />

1 Important <strong>to</strong> note is that such a measurement <strong>to</strong>wards the “Ideal Grid” for a specific country should be seen<br />

as the relative and not absolute improvement. Moreover the consecutive order of functionality will not follow<br />

the same path throughout Europe; there will be "jumps".<br />

2 <strong>The</strong> EC Task Force has already elaborated an initial assessment approach <strong>to</strong> link benefits and indica<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong><br />

services and functionalities and evaluate the <strong>smart</strong>ness of a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project and the merit of its deployment.<br />

European Commission Task Force for <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s (2010) Expert Group 1: Functionalities of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> and <strong>smart</strong><br />

meters.<br />

7


1.3 Where <strong>to</strong> go with the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> development: Universally accepted benefits<br />

In the context of this analysis, a ‘benefit’ is an impact (of a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project) that is of value<br />

<strong>to</strong> any regulated or commercial body, energy consuming households or society at large. To<br />

gauge their magnitude and facilitate comparison, benefits should be quantified and<br />

expressed in monetary terms.<br />

For <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> systems, it is well accepted that there are four fundamental categories of<br />

benefits 3 :<br />

� Economic – reduced costs, or increased production at the same cost, that result from<br />

improved utility system efficiency and asset utilisation;<br />

� Reliability and Power Quality – reduction in interruptions, service quality assistance<br />

improvement and power quality events;<br />

� Environmental – reduced impact of climate change and effects on human health and<br />

ecosystems due <strong>to</strong> pollution;<br />

� Security and Safety – improved energy security (i.e. reduced oil and gas<br />

dependence); increased cyber security and reductions in injuries, loss of life and<br />

property damage.<br />

Within each of the broad categories, there are several types of benefit and by definition they<br />

are mutually exclusive in terms of accounting for different benefit categories. <strong>How</strong>ever,<br />

<strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> functionalities that lead <strong>to</strong> one type of benefit can also lead <strong>to</strong> other types of<br />

benefits. For example, improvements that reduce distribution losses (an economic benefit)<br />

mean that pollutant emissions are reduced as well (which is an environmental benefit).<br />

Having identified the achieved benefits, it is very important <strong>to</strong> identify the beneficiaries in<br />

the process. In general, benefits are reductions in costs and damages, whether <strong>to</strong><br />

genera<strong>to</strong>rs, distribution system opera<strong>to</strong>rs, consumers or <strong>to</strong> society at large. In this<br />

evaluation process the various benefits are defined so as <strong>to</strong> avoid instances of transfer<br />

payments between these groups of beneficiaries, <strong>to</strong> avoid mistakes in the evaluation of the<br />

<strong>to</strong>tal benefits, and <strong>to</strong> illustrate benefits from the separate perspectives of each group.<br />

Broadly speaking the beneficiaries are the following:<br />

� Consumers: Consumers can balance or reduce their energy consumption with the<br />

real-time supply of energy. Variable pricing will provide consumer incentives <strong>to</strong> install<br />

their own in-home infrastructure that supports the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> development. <strong>The</strong><br />

<strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> information and communication infrastructure will support additional<br />

services not available <strong>to</strong>day.<br />

3 EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) (Faruqui, A., Hledik, R.) (2010). Methodological Appr oach for<br />

Estimating the Benefits and Costs of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> Demonstration Projects, Palo Al<strong>to</strong>, CA: EPRI. 1020342<br />

8


� Utilities (genera<strong>to</strong>rs, transmission system opera<strong>to</strong>rs, distribution system opera<strong>to</strong>rs<br />

and suppliers): Utilities can provide more reliable energy, particularly during<br />

challenging emergency conditions, while managing their costs more effectively<br />

through efficiency and information which can be used for more effective<br />

infrastructure development, maintenance and operation.<br />

� Society: Society benefits from more reliable supplies and consistent power quality for<br />

both domestic cus<strong>to</strong>mers and all industrial sec<strong>to</strong>rs – manufacturing, services, ICT –<br />

many of which are sensitive <strong>to</strong> power outages. Renewable energy, increased demand<br />

efficiency, and electric vehicles or other distributed s<strong>to</strong>rage support will reduce<br />

environmental costs, including society’s carbon footprint.<br />

A benefit <strong>to</strong> any one of these stakeholders can in turn benefit the others. For example, those<br />

benefits that reduce costs for a DSO could lower prices, or prevent price increases, for<br />

cus<strong>to</strong>mers. <strong>How</strong>ever in such cases it is vital <strong>to</strong> ensure that benefits transferred from one<br />

party <strong>to</strong> another are not double counted. Lower costs and decreased infrastructure<br />

requirements enhance the value of electricity <strong>to</strong> consumers. Reduced costs increase<br />

economic activity which benefits society. Societal benefits of the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> can be indirect<br />

and hard <strong>to</strong> <strong>quantify</strong>, but cannot be overlooked.<br />

Other stakeholders also benefit from the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>. Regula<strong>to</strong>rs can benefit from the<br />

transparency and audit-ability of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> information. Vendors and integra<strong>to</strong>rs benefit<br />

from business and product opportunities around <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> components and systems.<br />

Total benefits are the sum of the benefits <strong>to</strong> utilities, consumers and society at large –<br />

though any transfer payments between these beneficiary groups must be taken in<strong>to</strong> account<br />

and dealt with suitably. Ultimately transfer payments could be a solution <strong>to</strong> realise project<br />

financing where the global balance is positive, but where some stakeholders clearly benefit<br />

while others lose out.<br />

9


2. Smart Grid Cost-Benefit Analysis Methodology<br />

2.1 Background<br />

Over the past few years, there have been various models and constructs put forth related <strong>to</strong><br />

evaluating <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects and related investments. <strong>The</strong> lack of a standard, commonly<br />

accepted opera<strong>to</strong>r-level cost-benefit framework or system has led <strong>to</strong> few effective<br />

investment analysis approaches. <strong>How</strong>ever, DSO executives and policy decision makers are in<br />

need of such a framework.<br />

Why is it so difficult?<br />

Smart <strong>grid</strong> project investment analysis is particularly difficult because it<br />

� involves a large number of technologies, programmes and operational practices;<br />

� impacts on all the operational areas of the electricity value chain in an interlinked<br />

way (transfer of costs and benefits);<br />

� requires long-term vision 4 and commitment <strong>to</strong> fully implement;<br />

� assumes active involvement of cus<strong>to</strong>mers in using new technologies and software,<br />

the reliability and extent of which is still highly uncertain.<br />

Moreover, variation among European DSOs in existing <strong>grid</strong> infrastructure (e.g. current<br />

communications and metering systems, network age and condition) or service area<br />

characteristics (e.g. cus<strong>to</strong>mer geographic density and consumer end-use loads) – even within<br />

a single country – is so great that decision makers so far could not rely on existing studies<br />

from other regions or DSOs <strong>to</strong> justify <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investments.<br />

From an economic point of view, certain challenges arise when attempting <strong>to</strong> apply<br />

traditional cost-benefit analysis in the context of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investments. Evaluating <strong>smart</strong><br />

<strong>grid</strong> project investments can be different from traditional investment analyses:<br />

� All benefits related <strong>to</strong> <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investments may not be borne by the investing<br />

party and some additional costs required <strong>to</strong> realise a benefit may be borne by other<br />

parties. Should these additional costs and benefits be incorporated in<strong>to</strong> the analysis?<br />

If so, how will all costs and benefits be attributed <strong>to</strong> the appropriate parties, in<br />

modelling and analysis?<br />

� Uncertainty with respect <strong>to</strong> the magnitude of benefit streams is not unique <strong>to</strong> <strong>smart</strong><br />

<strong>grid</strong>s. <strong>How</strong>ever, some potential metrics associated with <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s present<br />

particularly difficult issues for accurate quantification (e.g. environmental impact,<br />

reliable levels of response). <strong>The</strong> rationale and assumptions made for some chosen<br />

parameters can greatly affect the outcome of the analysis.<br />

4 In ’10 Steps <strong>to</strong> Smart Grids – EURELCTRIC DSOs’ Ten-Year Roadmap for Smart Grid Deployment in the EU’, EURELECTRIC<br />

DSOs outline the 10 steps that are required for implementing <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s in Europe.<br />

10


What is necessary?<br />

Work must be done <strong>to</strong> define a methodological framework of estimating, calculating and<br />

assessing <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> benefits and cost, including evaluation of less quantifiable benefits.<br />

EURELECTRIC, as a stimula<strong>to</strong>r of the development of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s in society, takes the<br />

opportunity <strong>to</strong> address this lack and proposes in this section a common methodological<br />

framework that allows assessment of European <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project results.<br />

<strong>The</strong> basic structure of the proposed framework relies on the work of the US Energy Power<br />

Research Institute (EPRI). EPRI published a report in January 2010 on an approach for<br />

evaluating the US Department of Energy’s <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> demonstration projects. 5 It builds upon<br />

many previous studies and represents the most comprehensive approach <strong>to</strong> <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

evaluation <strong>to</strong> date.<br />

In an initiative <strong>to</strong> develop and fine-tune this methodology for the European <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

dimension recognising EU-specific drivers and priorities, EURELECTRIC collaborated with the<br />

European Commission’s Joint Research Centre <strong>to</strong> use a running <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project as a case<br />

study. <strong>The</strong> InovGrid project of the Portuguese distribution system opera<strong>to</strong>r EDP Distribução<br />

was selected from the JRC catalogue for application of the EPRI methodology <strong>to</strong> its full<br />

extent. 6<br />

Through the buy-in of the Inov<strong>grid</strong> management and the detailed and extensive preliminary<br />

data provision over a period of six months, real project experience proved invaluable in<br />

illustrating the steps of the cost-benefit analysis methodology. For the first time, the focus of<br />

the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> evaluation debate lay on sound and tangible estimated costs and benefits<br />

rather than addressing the theoretical framework in isolation.<br />

<strong>How</strong>ever the authors remain fully aware of the limits of such a case study and urge readers<br />

<strong>to</strong> bear this in mind. A single experience in <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> operations cannot be used as a<br />

universal reference <strong>to</strong> assess the impact of such solutions on the future power system. Given<br />

the wide variety of existing pre-conditions for European utilities implementing <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

projects, variation with alternative solutions deployed will always exist.<br />

2.2 Brief overview of the EPRI methodology<br />

<strong>The</strong> EPRI approach provides a framework for evaluating economic, environmental, reliability,<br />

and safety and security benefits from the perspective of the involved stakeholders. It also<br />

indicates the level of certainty of achieving estimated benefits and focuses on identifying<br />

benefits that are directly measurable, easy <strong>to</strong> understand and quantifiable in monetary<br />

terms.<br />

5 EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) (Faruqui, A., Hledik, R.) (2010). Methodological Approach for Estimating the<br />

Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, Palo Al<strong>to</strong>, CA: EPRI. 1020342<br />

6 <strong>The</strong> methodology is the first case study that has been chosen. Other <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> case studies from the JRC catalogue will be<br />

tested in the near future.<br />

11


<strong>The</strong> approach outlined in the report can be applied in generic form <strong>to</strong> most <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

investments. <strong>The</strong> EPRI methodology can be divided in<strong>to</strong> three major steps as follows:<br />

1. Characterisation of the project<br />

2. Quantification and monetisation of benefits<br />

3. Comparison of costs and benefits<br />

<strong>The</strong> joint effort between Members of EURELECTRIC, JRC and EDP Distribução resulted in a<br />

methodological framework <strong>to</strong> systematically estimate the different benefits of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

projects in seven steps. <strong>The</strong> methodology focuses on the identification and definition of<br />

benefits through a sequential, logical estimation process.<br />

Drawing from the InovGrid case study and experiences, the logical flow of the developed<br />

methodological framework is shown in the figure below, which outlines the proposed<br />

process for identifying benefits and estimating their monetary value. <strong>The</strong> final methodology<br />

foresees seven building blocks:<br />

2.3 <strong>The</strong> detailed seven-step approach<br />

Figure 1 – Cost-Benefit Analysis Framework<br />

12


This section describes the overall seven-step structure of the cost-benefit methodological<br />

framework. Each step covers the underlying principles and recommendations on how the<br />

framework should be used. Throughout the section examples from the InovGrid project<br />

illustrate how the methodology can be applied in practice. We suggest the reader<br />

alsoconsult the complementary JRC report 7 ‘Guidelines for conducting a cost-benefit analysis<br />

of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects’, which covers more examples and addresses quantitative aspects (in<br />

its annexes) related <strong>to</strong> the calculation and estimation of costs/benefits.<br />

STEP 1 – Describe the technologies, elements and goals of the project<br />

<strong>The</strong> initial step in estimating the benefits of a project is <strong>to</strong> describe it by identifying the goal<br />

of the project and the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> assets.<br />

A. Goal<br />

As a first step it is important <strong>to</strong> describe the high-level goals of the overall solution and how<br />

the installed components will allow the objectives of the project <strong>to</strong> be addressed. It should<br />

be clear who the stakeholders are and how their needs are addressed.<br />

InovGrid illustration – Goal of the project<br />

<strong>The</strong> INOVGRID project 8 aims at replacing the current LV meters with electronic devices called EDP Boxes<br />

(EB), using AMM (Au<strong>to</strong>mated Meter Management) standards. <strong>The</strong> EB is a gateway <strong>to</strong> energy management,<br />

which includes the functions of <strong>smart</strong> metering, has the capacity of local interaction with other devices<br />

through an interface Home Area Network (HAN).<br />

Local control equipment (DTC -Distribution Transformer Controller) in secondary substations performs<br />

au<strong>to</strong>mation functions for the distribution transformer and collects information from the EDP Boxes and<br />

sends them <strong>to</strong> the upstream systems.<br />

<strong>The</strong> project will integrate distributed generation (DG), Electric vehicles charging network and demand side<br />

management in network operation, providing a new set of system ancillary services. <strong>The</strong> project aims at<br />

demonstrating that a properly developed integration <strong>to</strong>ol can facilitate the integration of DG, a more<br />

efficient use of energy and a reduction in CO2 emissions, without compromising security of operation and<br />

quality of supply.<br />

7 European Commission – Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy and Transport, 2012. Guidelines for<br />

conducting cost-benefit analysis of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects”, Joint Research Centre Reference Report, February<br />

2012.<br />

8 http://www.inovcity.pt/en/Pages/homepage.aspx<br />

13


B. Smart <strong>grid</strong> assets<br />

Figure 2 – InovGrid project – technical architecture<br />

Smart <strong>grid</strong> assets consist of the technologies, devices, and equipment that are purchased,<br />

installed, and made operational for the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project. Assets could include, for example,<br />

in-home displays, load control devices, voltage control devices, a communications network<br />

and associated infrastructure, cyber security upgrades, enhanced fault detection technology<br />

or advanced metering infrastructure.<br />

It is important <strong>to</strong> identify what specific assets are installed, where they are installed, how<br />

the system is affected and what they do.<br />

InovGrid illustration - What <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> technologies are installed?<br />

Distribution<br />

Transformer<br />

Controller (DTC)<br />

DTC Cell Module –<br />

Distribution<br />

Au<strong>to</strong>mation<br />

DTC Power Quality<br />

Module<br />

Local control equipment will be installed in distribution transformer<br />

stations, the main components being a measurement module, control<br />

module and communications module. <strong>The</strong> main functions are, collecting<br />

data from EB and MV/LV substation, data analysis functions and <strong>grid</strong><br />

moni<strong>to</strong>ring.<br />

Module that enables turning on and off remotely or locally, the various<br />

independent circuits of the MV-LV substation.<br />

Module that allows the recording and reporting of the quality characteristic<br />

values of the wave voltage (rms value, flicker, voltage dips, harmonics),<br />

providing information and generating alarm events<br />

Furthermore, assets can include energy resources that interact with the <strong>grid</strong>, including<br />

distributed generation, stationary electricity s<strong>to</strong>rage, plug-in electric vehicles, and <strong>smart</strong><br />

14


appliances. <strong>The</strong>se resources can generally communicate and make business decisions or<br />

receive commands based on signals from the <strong>grid</strong>, cus<strong>to</strong>mers or other opera<strong>to</strong>rs like<br />

retailers, using either integrated technology or other assets of the project.<br />

Each of the deployed assets will produce a unique list of possible functionalities. Detailed<br />

fact sheets of the installed products can also help <strong>to</strong> define those functionalities and<br />

illustrate their role in the project.<br />

STEP 2 – Identify the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> functionalities<br />

Once identified, these assets can be integrated <strong>to</strong> enhance the delivery and use of electricity<br />

by enabling <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> functionalities. Functionalities describe the enhanced capabilities<br />

provided by <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> assets for delivering electricity across the <strong>grid</strong> from power plants <strong>to</strong><br />

consumers.<br />

Expert Group 1 (EG1) of the EC Smart Grid Task Force has defined the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> in terms of<br />

six high-level characteristics (referred <strong>to</strong> in 1.2 above) that are delivered through 33 specific<br />

network functionalities.<br />

A. Enabling the network <strong>to</strong> integrate users with new requirements<br />

1. Facilitate connections at all voltages / locations for any kind of devices<br />

2. Facilitate the use of the <strong>grid</strong> for the users at all voltages/locations<br />

3. Use of network control systems for network purposes<br />

4. Update network performance data on continuity of supply and voltage quality<br />

B. Enhancing efficiency in day-<strong>to</strong>-day <strong>grid</strong> operation<br />

5. Au<strong>to</strong>mated fault identification / <strong>grid</strong> reconfiguration reducing outage times<br />

6. Enhance moni<strong>to</strong>ring and control of power flows and voltages<br />

7. Enhance moni<strong>to</strong>ring and observability of <strong>grid</strong>s down <strong>to</strong> low voltage levels<br />

8. Improve moni<strong>to</strong>ring of network assets<br />

9. Identification of technical and non technical losses by power flow analysis<br />

10. Frequent information exchange on actual active/reactive generation/consumption<br />

C. Ensuring network security, system control and quality of supply<br />

11. Allow <strong>grid</strong> users and aggrega<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> participate in ancillary services market<br />

12. Improved operation schemes for voltage/current control taking in<strong>to</strong> account ancillary services<br />

13. Intermittent sources of generation <strong>to</strong> contribute <strong>to</strong> system security<br />

14. System security assessment and management of remedies<br />

15. Moni<strong>to</strong>ring of safety particularly in public areas<br />

16. Solutions for demand response for system security in required time<br />

15


D. Better planning of future network investment<br />

17. Better models of DG, s<strong>to</strong>rage, flexible loads, ancillary services<br />

18. Improve asset management and replacement strategies<br />

19. Additional information on <strong>grid</strong> quality and consumption by metering for planning<br />

E. Improving market functioning and cus<strong>to</strong>mer service<br />

20. Participation of all connected genera<strong>to</strong>rs in the electricity market<br />

21. Participation of VPPs and aggrega<strong>to</strong>rs in the electricity market<br />

22. Facilitate consumer participation in the electricity market<br />

23. Open platform (<strong>grid</strong> infrastructure) for EV recharge purposes<br />

24. Improvement <strong>to</strong> industry systems (for settlement, system balance, scheduling)<br />

25. Support the adoption of intelligent home / facilities au<strong>to</strong>mation and <strong>smart</strong> devices<br />

26. Provide <strong>to</strong> <strong>grid</strong> users individual advance notice for planned interruptions<br />

27. Improve cus<strong>to</strong>mer level reporting in occasion of interruptions<br />

F. Enabling and encouraging stronger and more direct involvement of consumers in<br />

their energy usage and management<br />

28. Sufficient frequency of meter readings<br />

29. Remote management of meters<br />

30. Consumption/injection data and price signals by different means<br />

31. Improve energy usage information<br />

32. Improve information on energy sources<br />

33. Availability of individual continuity of supply and voltage quality indica<strong>to</strong>rs<br />

<strong>The</strong> functionalities defined by EG1 describe in broad terms the different ways in which <strong>smart</strong><br />

<strong>grid</strong> technology can be used <strong>to</strong> improve the reliability, efficiency, operation, and security of<br />

the electrical <strong>grid</strong>. Depending on which <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> assets are installed, how they are<br />

combined and how they are operated in a system, different functionalities can be triggered.<br />

16


InovGrid illustration - What can the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> technologies do?<br />

<strong>The</strong> DTC Cell Module, which is a very specific component of the InovGrid project, allows triggering the<br />

Distribution Au<strong>to</strong>mation functionality. Looking <strong>to</strong> the functionalities defined by EG1 of the TF <strong>smart</strong><br />

<strong>grid</strong>s, following functionalities out of the list are activated<br />

(3) Use of network control systems for network purposes<br />

(5) Au<strong>to</strong>mated fault identification/<strong>grid</strong> reconfiguration reducing outage times<br />

Figure 3 – Mapping assets <strong>to</strong> functionalities: overview matrix<br />

Figure 4 – Mapping assets <strong>to</strong> functionalities: detail<br />

STEP 3 – Map each functionality on<strong>to</strong> a standardised set of benefit types<br />

As assets are mapped <strong>to</strong> functionalities, functionalities are mapped <strong>to</strong> benefits. Each of the<br />

triggered functionalities has <strong>to</strong> be considered <strong>to</strong> determine if and how they can provide any<br />

of the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> benefits.<br />

<strong>The</strong> general categories of benefits include improved economic performance (such as<br />

reduced operating and maintenance costs), enhanced reliability, reduced emissions and<br />

greater energy security. <strong>The</strong> EPRI methodology has developed a complete list of four benefit<br />

17


categories comprising 22 specific benefits. This has been adopted as a comprehensive list 9<br />

that is also suitable for use in Europe:<br />

Economic<br />

Reliability<br />

Improved Asset<br />

Utilization<br />

T&D Capital Saving<br />

T&D O&M Savings<br />

Optimized Genera<strong>to</strong>r Operation (Utilities)<br />

Deferred Generation Capacity Investments (Utilities)<br />

Reduced Ancillary Service Cost (Utilities)<br />

Reduced Congestion Cost (Utilities)<br />

Deferred Transmission Capacity Investments (Utilities)<br />

Deferred Distribution Capacity Investments (Utilities)<br />

Reduced Equipment Failures (Utilities)<br />

Reduced Distribution Equipment Maintenance Cost (Utilities)<br />

Reduced Distribution Operation Cost (Utilities)<br />

Reduced Meter Reading Cost (Utilities)<br />

<strong>The</strong>ft Reduction Reduced Electricity <strong>The</strong>ft (Utilities)<br />

Energy Efficiency Reduced Electricity Losses (Consumer)<br />

Recovered Revenue Detection of anomalies relating Contracted Power (Utilities)<br />

Electricity Cost Savings Reduced Electricity Cost (Consumer)<br />

Power Interruptions<br />

Power Quality<br />

Environmental Air Emissions<br />

Security Energy Security<br />

Reduced Sustained Outages (Consumer)<br />

Reduced Major Outages (Consumer)<br />

Reduced Res<strong>to</strong>ration Cost (Utilities)<br />

Reduced Momentary Outages (Consumer)<br />

Reduced Sags and Swells (Consumer)<br />

Reduced CO2 Emissions (Society)<br />

Reduced Sox, Nox, and PM-10 Emissions (Society)<br />

Reduced Oil Usage (Society)<br />

Reduced Wide-scale Blackouts (Society)<br />

Table 1 – List of Benefits<br />

<strong>The</strong> relationship between the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> functionalities and the expected benefits should<br />

then be illustrated in a functionalities-benefits matrix.<br />

9 <strong>The</strong>se benefits differ from the ones published by ERGEG and the EC Task Force <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s. <strong>The</strong>se benefits can<br />

easily be monetized. For a description of the benefits, we refer <strong>to</strong> Annex I of the JRC report ‘Guidelines for<br />

conducting a cost-benefit analysis of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects’.<br />

18


InovGrid illustration - What benefit results from the technology?<br />

<strong>The</strong> ’Use of network control systems for network purposes’ (3) <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> functionality can deliver a<br />

benefit like Reduced Distribution Operations Costs: it refers <strong>to</strong> meter or repair operations that can<br />

now be performed remotely instead of sending service workers.<br />

<strong>The</strong> ‘Au<strong>to</strong>mated fault identification/<strong>grid</strong> reconfiguration reducing outage times’ (5) <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

functionality can deliver a benefit like Reduced Res<strong>to</strong>ration Costs: by more quickly and precisely<br />

locating an clearing faults, field service workers can spend less time searching for the cause of the<br />

faults. It is also possible that by better isolating the fault, less damage occurs.<br />

Matching each functionality with one or more benefits from the list requires thorough analysis and a<br />

good deal of thinking.<br />

Figure 5 – Mapping functionalities <strong>to</strong> benefits<br />

STEP 4 – Establish the project baseline<br />

<strong>The</strong> implementation of a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project incurs costs and delivers benefits that have <strong>to</strong> be<br />

compared with the scenario had the project not taken place. It is therefore essential for any<br />

cost-benefit analysis <strong>to</strong> define and characterise the baseline against which all other aspects<br />

of the analysis are compared.<br />

<strong>The</strong> baseline encompasses all the quantitative data that is needed <strong>to</strong> represent the current<br />

situation. Since all cost-benefit analyses are based on measuring or assessing change, two<br />

cases are required <strong>to</strong> measure the change that is <strong>to</strong> be assessed. <strong>The</strong> EPRI methodology puts<br />

forward the two types of states of the system necessary <strong>to</strong> start the evaluation:<br />

19


� <strong>The</strong> Business as Usual (BAU) scenario 10 : the baseline (or control) conditions that<br />

reflect what the system condition would have been without the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> system in<br />

place<br />

� <strong>The</strong> <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> scenario: <strong>The</strong> realised and measured conditions with the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

system installed<br />

<strong>The</strong> quantification of a specific benefit or cost, as explained in the next step, is then the<br />

incremental change in that cost and benefit metric between BAU and the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

scenario.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re might be a number of candidate baselines for each benefit, and the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project<br />

will have <strong>to</strong> select the baseline that is viewed as the most representative of the state of the<br />

<strong>grid</strong> had the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project not been implemented. Important fac<strong>to</strong>rs that have <strong>to</strong> be<br />

taken in<strong>to</strong> account when defining the baseline include, inter alia, extreme events 11 , inflation,<br />

demand growth, load growth, evolution of electricity prices and final date of the project.<br />

InovGrid illustration – set the right baseline <strong>to</strong> measure the benefit<br />

Example benefit 1: Reduced Distribution Maintenance cost<br />

BAU condition Direct costs related <strong>to</strong>:<br />

- the maintenance of transformers, secondary substations<br />

- the breakdown of transformers<br />

- the theft of transformers at secondary substations<br />

Smart Grid condition Estimated reduction in maintenance with InovGrid infrastructure:<br />

- remotely control and moni<strong>to</strong>r asset condition and utilization,<br />

avoiding side visit related costs<br />

- better information on power flow and distribution load, implying<br />

less breakdown of transformers<br />

- sensors on the secondary substations that warn in case of the<br />

decreasing thefts<br />

Example benefit 2: Reduced Technical Losses<br />

BAU condition Estimation of the <strong>to</strong>tal amount of losses (in %) at Distribution and<br />

Transmission level, corresponding <strong>to</strong> <strong>to</strong>tal monetized value for the<br />

considered period.<br />

Smart Grid condition Estimated reduction in technical losses due <strong>to</strong>:<br />

- energy efficiency (consumption reduction and peak load<br />

transfer)<br />

- new capacity <strong>to</strong> control the reactive power level<br />

10<br />

<strong>The</strong> analysis should not be always based on a single BAU scenario; it can be useful <strong>to</strong> consider a limited<br />

number of options for the BAU scenario.<br />

11<br />

“Extreme events” could not be assumed in modelling a baseline scenario due <strong>to</strong> their sporadic and<br />

unpredictable nature. <strong>How</strong>ever, if an extreme event occurs over the period where the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project was in<br />

operation and measurements were made, this will likely impact on the results of the “Smart Grid Scenario”.<br />

Thus, if possible, the impact of the same event should be built in<strong>to</strong> the BAU scenario. <strong>The</strong> accuracy of this<br />

would depend on there being his<strong>to</strong>rical evidence of how the system has dealt with such events in the past.<br />

20


STEP 5 – Quantify and monetise the identified benefits and beneficiaries<br />

Quantifying the benefits in this case means “measuring the effects or outcomes that the<br />

project will deliver.” <strong>The</strong> challenge lies in evaluating these effects in monetised terms. <strong>The</strong><br />

metrics needed <strong>to</strong> monetise the benefits may be quantified in terms of physical units ( e.g.<br />

reduction in kWh). <strong>The</strong> quantified benefits should in turn be monetised by applying a cost<br />

per unit (e.g. €/kWh).<br />

Every identified benefit requires an approach and data for the calculation of both the BAU<br />

condition and the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> condition. <strong>The</strong> incremental monetary change between both<br />

conditions can in general be expressed as:<br />

Value (€) = [Condition]BAU – [Condition]SG<br />

InovGrid illustration – what is the benefit worth?<br />

Reduced Local Meter Operations Costs (Benefit)<br />

Rationale:<br />

Figure 6 – Reduced Local Meter Operations Cost (Benefit)<br />

� <strong>The</strong> BAU condition represents the <strong>to</strong>tal costs related <strong>to</strong> local meter operations<br />

without InovGrid infrastructure in place.<br />

� <strong>The</strong> benefit is expressed as an incremental cost reduction referring <strong>to</strong> meter<br />

operations that now can be performed remotely with InovGrid infrastructure (e.g.<br />

change in contracted power, change of tariff plan, switching,<br />

connection/disconnection, etc.).<br />

� It is assumed a communications success rate of around 95%.<br />

21


A. Externalities - Parameter Values for Monetisation<br />

When calculating benefits, it is clear that some benefits, such as reduced emissions or<br />

reduced damages <strong>to</strong> end-users from power interruptions, are difficult <strong>to</strong> monetise. A project<br />

would, for example, need <strong>to</strong> estimate the emissions before the project on the electricity<br />

generated for the area under study, and after the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investments are in place. In this<br />

respect the choice of the right parameter values is important. 12<br />

On <strong>to</strong>p of that, the project may deliver benefits that cannot be accurately monetised. <strong>The</strong>se<br />

benefits include, inter alia, new services and products offered, vehicle-<strong>to</strong>-<strong>grid</strong> services, job<br />

creation and new business opportunities. In general, they benefit the public or society at<br />

large. <strong>The</strong>y should not be overlooked and should be taken, quantitatively or qualitatively,<br />

in<strong>to</strong> account in the <strong>to</strong>tal <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project assessment.<br />

<strong>The</strong> following benefits require specific attention:<br />

Reliability and power quality benefits<br />

To monetise reliability and power quality benefits, the most common approach is <strong>to</strong> apply<br />

the cost per un-served kilowatt-hour (or cus<strong>to</strong>mer hour depending on regula<strong>to</strong>ry<br />

framework) from the interruption-cost estimates. Benefits calculated from this approach are<br />

a direct function of the change in the number of interrupted hours (from what is<br />

experienced under a baseline conditions <strong>to</strong> what is experienced after <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investments<br />

are made). 13<br />

Environmental benefits<br />

To the extent that they can be reasonably quantified (and that they can be attributed <strong>to</strong> the<br />

<strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investment), environmental benefits should be quantified, monetised in the costbenefit<br />

framework and designated a societal benefit. In some cases, environmental benefits<br />

can be estimated based on the average cost of installing remediation equipment as an<br />

alternative, such as emission reduction technology. In other cases, there are market<br />

instruments from which the benefits can be readily calculated (e.g. spot and future values of<br />

allowances traded in market exchanges).<br />

Societal benefits<br />

From an economist’s viewpoint, substantial benefits accrue <strong>to</strong> consumers and, more<br />

interestingly, <strong>to</strong> third parties because of positive externalities created from a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

implementation. <strong>The</strong> analysis should include a unique list of societal benefits and internalise<br />

all externalities, thereby understanding and valuating the community welfare effects.<br />

System opera<strong>to</strong>rs and regula<strong>to</strong>rs should ultimately include benefits with a broader societal<br />

impact in their assessments. Some typical benefits include:<br />

12<br />

Annex II of the JRC report offers an approach for <strong>quantify</strong>ing and monetizing <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> benefits illustrated<br />

by parameters.<br />

13<br />

Sullivan, M.M., Mercurio, M., Schellenberg, J. (2009) “Estimated Value of Service Reliability for Electric Utility<br />

Cus<strong>to</strong>mers in the United States,” Report LBNL-2132E, prepared for the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy<br />

Reliability, U.S. Department of Energy, Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Labora<strong>to</strong>ry, June 2009.<br />

22


� Environmental and health benefits due <strong>to</strong> decreased peak electricity generation and<br />

the associated release of pollutants in<strong>to</strong> the atmosphere ( as peaking capacity is<br />

generally carbon-intensive rather than renewable).<br />

� New industries can develop <strong>to</strong> deliver a whole new spectrum of products ( prepayment,<br />

demand response programmes), energy efficiency applications and new<br />

technologies (<strong>smart</strong> appliances, s<strong>to</strong>rage, etc.) . Smart <strong>grid</strong> projects could leverage<br />

innovation in distinct areas like electric vehicles, renewables, distributed generation<br />

and energy efficiency.<br />

� Sustained job creation: including direct utility jobs created by <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> programmes<br />

(new skills, jobs created in the broad “energy services” sec<strong>to</strong>r), non-utility <strong>smart</strong>-<strong>grid</strong><br />

related jobs (contrac<strong>to</strong>rs, technology design, manufacturing, for example in new<br />

industry lines like plug-in electric hybrid vehicles).<br />

B. Beneficiaries<br />

When conducting the analysis, it is of extreme importance <strong>to</strong> take in<strong>to</strong> consideration the<br />

complete value chain and all the effects that a society experiences from producing and<br />

consuming electricity in the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> deployment, and not only the effects on the<br />

genera<strong>to</strong>rs that produce electricity and their registered consumers who consume<br />

electricity. Benefits need <strong>to</strong> be clearly allocated <strong>to</strong> their beneficiaries.<br />

InovGrid illustration - Beneficiaries<br />

Figure 7– Benefits accrue through the value chain: ESCO, DSO, Consumer, Producer, Regula<strong>to</strong>r<br />

23


Where <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investments are <strong>to</strong> be made by distribution companies, it is vital that<br />

regula<strong>to</strong>rs bear the relevant beneficiaries in mind. Increasingly there are examples of the<br />

DSO bearing significant costs which will be recovered by other stakeholders than the DSO<br />

who made the investment. This is for example the case in the cost-benefit analysis<br />

performed by the Irish energy regula<strong>to</strong>r (CER) , facilitated by ESB Networks, of a national<br />

<strong>smart</strong> metering rollout based on a large-scale test deployment over two years. As illustrated<br />

below, although there was a significant net benefit <strong>to</strong> society, the DSO experienced a<br />

financial loss.<br />

Background:<br />

Figure 8 - NPV benefits of <strong>smart</strong> metering in Ireland (€m), as determined by the Irish CER<br />

This study was based on the full deployment of <strong>smart</strong> metering in Ireland, with<br />

installation beginning in Q3 2014 and continuing until the end of 2017. <strong>The</strong> benefits<br />

presented here are the Net Present Value (NPV) in 2011 based on cash flows 2011-<br />

2032. <strong>The</strong> costs and benefits included are those which are robustly quantifiable – a<br />

range of less reliably quantifiable benefits were also taken in<strong>to</strong> consideration in<br />

reporting but not included in calculations.<br />

Amongst these benefits was an expectation that by the end of the CBA period CO2<br />

emissions would be 100,000-110,000 <strong>to</strong>nnes below baseline each year and annual SO2<br />

emissions lower by 117-129 <strong>to</strong>nnes. Quantified benefits pertaining <strong>to</strong> the cus<strong>to</strong>mer<br />

and distribution system opera<strong>to</strong>r included efficiency and peak shifting such that<br />

cus<strong>to</strong>mer bills are reduced and distribution capacity uprates may be deferred. <strong>The</strong><br />

expected cus<strong>to</strong>mer behaviour was based on an 18 month cus<strong>to</strong>mer behavioural trial<br />

with <strong>smart</strong> metering and a range of stimuli including in-home displays, web portals,<br />

variable tariffs, higher levels of billing information and more regular billing.<br />

24


STEP 6 – Quantify and estimate the relevant costs<br />

<strong>The</strong> relevant costs of a project are those incurred <strong>to</strong> deploy the project, relative <strong>to</strong> the<br />

baseline. <strong>The</strong> complete picture of costs is required <strong>to</strong> determine if the project has delivered<br />

a positive return on investment and, if so, at what stage during or after deployment the<br />

cumulative spend matched the benefits accrued.<br />

EPRI provides some guidelines when defining the appropriate costs:<br />

� Cost data can come directly from the project, estimated or tracked by the<br />

inves<strong>to</strong>r;<br />

� Capital costs are amortised over time; each project has <strong>to</strong> estimate its activitybased<br />

costs, using its approved accounting procedures for handling capital costs,<br />

debit, depreciation, and taxes;<br />

� Both baseline and actual project costs should be tracked, with a distinction<br />

between costs that would normally be incurred in a-scale investment and those<br />

due <strong>to</strong> the RD&D aspects of the project.<br />

Moreover, it is important <strong>to</strong> note that costs should always be estimated and/or calculated<br />

on the same time intervals for which benefits are calculated. In general, following costs<br />

could be considered:<br />

Category Type of Cost<br />

Programme Planning and administration<br />

Smart Grid programme implementation<br />

Marketing<br />

Measurement, verification, analysis<br />

Participant incentive payments<br />

Capital investments Generation<br />

Transmission<br />

Distribution<br />

Other<br />

Operation & maintenance Generation<br />

Ancillary service<br />

Transmission<br />

Distribution<br />

Meter reading<br />

Participant incentive payments<br />

Losses and theft Value of losses<br />

Value of theft<br />

Reliability Res<strong>to</strong>ration costs<br />

Environmental costs CO2 control equipment and operation<br />

CO2 emission permits<br />

SO2, NOx, PM control equipment and operation<br />

SO2, NOx emission permits<br />

Energy security Cost of oil consumed <strong>to</strong> generate power<br />

Cost of gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products<br />

Costs <strong>to</strong> res<strong>to</strong>re wide-area blackouts if any actually occur during the<br />

project period<br />

Research and development R&D costs<br />

Table 2 – Overview of costs<br />

25


InovGrid illustration - Cost of Action tracked<br />

For the estimation of relevant costs of the InovGrid project, EDPD made a recent market consultation.<br />

Other costs were measured by the company and tracked in their accounting notes.<br />

Figure 9 – Cost of Action tracked for the InovGrid project<br />

STEP 7 – Compare costs <strong>to</strong> benefits<br />

Once costs and benefits have been estimated, they need <strong>to</strong> be compared in order <strong>to</strong><br />

evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the project. This comparison could be done by using one<br />

of the following universally accepted approaches (also put forward by the EPRI<br />

methodology):<br />

- Annual comparison: Compiling the annual benefits and costs over the duration of<br />

the project – i.e. the differences compared with the BAU condition for both benefits<br />

and costs for each year of the study period.<br />

- Cumulative comparison: Presenting costs and benefits cumulatively over time, with<br />

each year’s costs or benefits being the sum of that year’s value plus the value of all<br />

prior years. This approach helps identifying the ‘break-even’ point in time when<br />

benefits exceed costs.<br />

- Net present value (NPV): Calculating the net present value, in which benefits minus<br />

costs each year of the project are discounted using an agreed discount rate. <strong>The</strong> NPV<br />

represents the <strong>to</strong>tal discounted value of the project – i.e. the <strong>to</strong>tal amount by which<br />

benefits exceed costs after accounting for the time value of money.<br />

- Benefit-cost ratio: This method shows the ratio of benefits <strong>to</strong> costs. It represents the<br />

size of benefits relative <strong>to</strong> that of the costs. If the ratio is greater than one, the<br />

project is cost-effective.<br />

All of the above approaches have their individual benefits, but it is up <strong>to</strong> the individual<br />

project team representing the interests of the financing consortium <strong>to</strong> decide what<br />

methodology <strong>to</strong> use and what <strong>to</strong> present <strong>to</strong> whom. Each approach provides added value for<br />

the different interested stakeholders, being the shareholders, regula<strong>to</strong>rs and policymakers.<br />

26


InovGrid illustration - Annual Comparison<br />

<strong>The</strong> annual comparison allows identifying in which years the costs exceed benefits. Initial investments<br />

in the first phases of the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> deployment deliver benefits only after some time. Please note<br />

that the figures shown below are only indicative and (for confidentiality reasons) n ot represent the<br />

exact numbers of the InovGrid project.<br />

Sensitivity analysis<br />

Figure 10 – Annual comparison of costs <strong>to</strong> benefits<br />

When comparing costs <strong>to</strong> benefits, this must be carried out around certain fac<strong>to</strong>rs or<br />

parameters depending on the choice of the project coordina<strong>to</strong>rs. <strong>The</strong>se are generally<br />

parameters with a high degree of variability and/or uncertainty. Key assumptions underlying<br />

the analysis, including those that drive estimates of major cost components, should be<br />

clearly documented, and the variability or uncertainty of estimates should be incorporated<br />

in<strong>to</strong> those estimates.<br />

<strong>The</strong> proposed methodology recommends including a sensitivity analysis as part of the costbenefit<br />

information filing supporting the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project investments. Indeed, different<br />

geographies and regula<strong>to</strong>ry environments will have different impacts on the cost and<br />

benefits quantification. <strong>The</strong> sensitivity analysis should:<br />

� Identify the key variables. Good candidates include the cost and reliability of<br />

technology, cus<strong>to</strong>mer behaviour change achieved, discount fac<strong>to</strong>r when calculating<br />

net present values, emission costs and reliability fac<strong>to</strong>rs, which have a wide range of<br />

potential values and are more subjective in nature.<br />

27


� Produce different cost-benefit results in order <strong>to</strong> demonstrate the impact various<br />

scenarios might have on the economic and societal profile of the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> project.<br />

We consider the following two fac<strong>to</strong>rs as having a high impact on the final outcome of the<br />

analysis:<br />

� Discount rate<br />

<strong>The</strong> realisation of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> benefits and costs may occur gradually and over extended<br />

periods of time. <strong>The</strong>refore, all cost-benefit analyses in support of a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investment<br />

should reflect and adjust for the expected timing of estimated costs and benefits. <strong>The</strong> rate of<br />

return on <strong>grid</strong> investments or the interest rate on long-term state bonds could be a<br />

reasonable choice for a discount rate. <strong>How</strong>ever, different discount rates can be used <strong>to</strong><br />

assess the benefits for different beneficiaries, e.g. consumers may have a different assumed<br />

cost of capital compared <strong>to</strong> system opera<strong>to</strong>rs.<br />

<strong>The</strong> question of discount rate as should be applied and the influencing fac<strong>to</strong>rs in its<br />

determination depend on the context in which the analysis is <strong>to</strong> be considered. Two cases<br />

warrant consideration here – the rate applied in analysis <strong>to</strong> inform a purely commercial<br />

decision regarding the financial implications of implementing a technical solution in<br />

comparison with other options for the benefit of the investing party, and analysis for<br />

comparative purposes where a project may be publicly funded <strong>to</strong> realise potential benefits<br />

<strong>to</strong> society.<br />

Where a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investment is being considered by the <strong>grid</strong> opera<strong>to</strong>r as an alternative <strong>to</strong><br />

more conventional investments on purely technical and financial terms, it must be noted<br />

that “<strong>smart</strong>” investments are often far closer <strong>to</strong> typical telecommunications investments,<br />

generally with a higher risk level than conventional utility investments. Additionally, this is<br />

often less mature technology, applications and a new technological environment for the<br />

utility, increasing the risk of not achieving expected returns. Thus if the discount rate is <strong>to</strong><br />

fairly reflect the relative risk of the projects, a higher discount rate should be applied <strong>to</strong> the<br />

“<strong>smart</strong> investment” analysis.<br />

<strong>How</strong>ever as the useful economic lifetime of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> assets will likely be shorter, this<br />

higher risk is limited <strong>to</strong> a shorter period. Thus should there be a will <strong>to</strong> incentivise “<strong>smart</strong>”<br />

investments over conventional ones for societal reasons on the part of government, the<br />

regula<strong>to</strong>r or other policy determining organisations, an appropriate means of achieving this<br />

would be through allowing the <strong>grid</strong> opera<strong>to</strong>r a higher WACC and shorter depreciation on<br />

such investments, thus seeing the additional risk subsidised by the driving body.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re is however, a case for a lower discount rate <strong>to</strong> be applied on a theoretical level <strong>to</strong><br />

show what the return for society on an investment will be relative <strong>to</strong> the return seen on<br />

other public investments. Where a “<strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>” is being considered for social reasons with<br />

the costs and gains <strong>to</strong> society, then it would be appropriate for the discount rate <strong>to</strong> reflect<br />

the risk <strong>to</strong> the state, specified by the state body responsible for determining whether the<br />

project will be publicly funded. In this case the DSO is merely the implementing body<br />

contracted by the state, with funding for the project guaranteed. (In this case, the DSO is an<br />

appropriate body <strong>to</strong> be contracted both due <strong>to</strong> opportunity, expertise and experience and<br />

also as it is likely <strong>to</strong> be able <strong>to</strong> fund the project at a lower interest rate than many other<br />

28


odies which will likely be fully commercial. Thus the <strong>to</strong>tal cost borne by the public will likely<br />

be lower.)<br />

With a “risk free” rate as specified by the appropriate body applied, all project risk must be<br />

diligently built in<strong>to</strong> the cash flows by the DSO in forming the financial model of the<br />

investment. This risk includes the uncertainty in achieving cost savings which a project is<br />

expected <strong>to</strong> deliver.<br />

<strong>The</strong> interaction between discount rate and implementation schedule of a project will have a<br />

direct impact on the NPV cost of the project. Thus it is vital that both are accurate and do<br />

not disproportionately emphasise costs or benefits at any stage in the project. Where the<br />

costs or rate of return vary over the discounting period, this must be factually reflected. This<br />

is pertinent in the case of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s, as evidence <strong>to</strong> date suggests that benefits are<br />

achieved later due <strong>to</strong> the interdependence of different systems which must be deployed, the<br />

current immaturity of technology leading <strong>to</strong> price volatility and the requirement for public<br />

engagement <strong>to</strong> realise potential benefits.<br />

It must be borne in mind that no generic discount rate can be applied in either case as this<br />

will depend on a complex combination of matters including the debt level of the funding<br />

body. <strong>The</strong> rate applied in any case, be it utility WACC or the rate on state bonds, requires<br />

calculation by those fully informed on the case in question and qualified <strong>to</strong> do so. <strong>How</strong>ever<br />

standardising the useful economic lifetime of assets would be a far more achievable<br />

measure due <strong>to</strong> its dependence on technology rather than financial status of a body.<br />

� Lifetime<br />

<strong>The</strong> lifetime over which a cost-benefit analysis is conducted should reflect the projected<br />

useful life of the <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investment or system. It represents the continuous period of<br />

time when the components and system of the investment operate correctly and reliably <strong>to</strong><br />

perform their designed functionalities. <strong>The</strong> project coordina<strong>to</strong>r should carefully document<br />

the basis for its determination of the investment’s useful life and also the length of time over<br />

which reasonable cus<strong>to</strong>mer and societal benefits can be reliably estimated.<br />

InovGrid illustration – Sensitivity analysis: parameters that impact benefits<br />

- Deferred Distribution Capacity Investments:<br />

o Different consumption trends (increasing or retracting) can influence this variable<br />

o Also the current installed capacity in a given country influences this benefit<br />

- Reduced Meter Reading cost:<br />

o This variable has a direct relation with the number of local readings on the baseline<br />

situation<br />

o <strong>The</strong> cost of local reading may also be different from location <strong>to</strong> location (e.g. manpower<br />

cost, <strong>to</strong>ols available)<br />

- Reduced Distribution cost:<br />

o <strong>The</strong> potential of this benefit is related with the number and type of local meter<br />

operations that can differ in different geographies or regula<strong>to</strong>ry environments<br />

- Reduced Technical losses:<br />

o In countries where the consumption is more concentrated or closer <strong>to</strong> the<br />

generation points (<strong>grid</strong> density) or with different consumption mix in different<br />

voltage levels (HV versus LV), the level of technical losses will be variable<br />

29


3. <strong>How</strong> <strong>to</strong> extrapolate project results <strong>to</strong> the national level?<br />

<strong>The</strong> methodology presented in Chapter Two provides insight in<strong>to</strong> how <strong>to</strong> interpret results of<br />

single projects. <strong>The</strong> costs, benefits and their allocation <strong>to</strong> beneficiaries across society can be<br />

identified through the process described by the different steps. This could prove an effective<br />

<strong>to</strong>ol <strong>to</strong> evaluate the impact of a project on a part of the electricity system.<br />

<strong>How</strong>ever, once individual project results have been evaluated against a well-defined<br />

baseline, there is the need <strong>to</strong> extrapolate what the combined contribution of several such<br />

<strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects <strong>to</strong> the national and European targets would be. This should be done <strong>to</strong><br />

inform the on-going policy move <strong>to</strong>wards a low carbon power system, considering the<br />

technological environment and standards which will impact the rollout process. <strong>The</strong>re is an<br />

added value in determining <strong>to</strong> what extent a project has led <strong>to</strong> improving broader<br />

“indica<strong>to</strong>rs” that represent the evolution <strong>to</strong>wards a <strong>smart</strong>er European <strong>grid</strong>. Simultaneously,<br />

the evaluation of projects values on a European wide scale should include detailed analysis<br />

of the scaling-up and replication conditions.<br />

As it stands, the methodology itself provides no clear answer as <strong>to</strong> how this can be achieved.<br />

Some first fundamental conceptual ideas are elaborated in this chapter. <strong>The</strong>y rely on some<br />

of the aspects of the EPRI report 14 which aimed <strong>to</strong> produce a preliminary estimate of the<br />

required investment needed <strong>to</strong> create a viable <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> in the USA. <strong>The</strong> determination of<br />

European KPIs is an on-going process.<br />

3.1 <strong>The</strong> <strong>grid</strong> and its limitations<br />

<strong>The</strong> national quantification process should start by separating the project deliverables in<strong>to</strong><br />

distinct functional areas and making a number of assumptions about technology<br />

development, deployment, and cost over the desired study period. For consistency<br />

throughout Europe stakeholders need <strong>to</strong> agree on a study period and other key assumptions<br />

for the evaluation process <strong>to</strong> form a basis for comparison.<br />

It is important <strong>to</strong> clarify assumptions and definitions in the evaluation process. <strong>The</strong> whole<br />

power delivery system should cover everything from the electrical <strong>grid</strong> busbar at the<br />

generating plant <strong>to</strong> the energy-consuming device or appliance at the end-user. This means<br />

that the power delivery system encompasses generation step-up transformers; the<br />

generation switchyard; transmission substations, lines, and equipment; distribution<br />

substations, lines and equipment; intelligent electronic devices; communications; distributed<br />

energy resources located at end users; power quality mitigation devices and uninterruptible<br />

power supplies; sensors; energy s<strong>to</strong>rage devices; and other equipment.<br />

14 EPRI (Electric Power Research Institue) (2011). Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid, a<br />

Preliminary Estimate of the Investment Requirements and the Resultant Benefits of a Fully Functioning Smart<br />

Grid, Palo Al<strong>to</strong>, CA: 2011. 1022519<br />

30


3.2 Steps <strong>to</strong> evaluate base cost<br />

To conduct a quantitative estimate of the level of investment needed over the chosen time<br />

period, a good approach is <strong>to</strong> separate the core technologies of the project in<strong>to</strong> four broad<br />

areas: transmission, substations, distribution and the cus<strong>to</strong>mer interface. <strong>The</strong> cost<br />

estimation process should be further divided in<strong>to</strong> the following categories <strong>to</strong> consistently<br />

identify the base cost for the required development:<br />

� Elements that meet load growth and correct network issues through installation,<br />

upgrade, and replacement of built network capacity. This is the conventional<br />

means of accommodating new cus<strong>to</strong>mers (new connects), serving increasing<br />

energy demand of existing cus<strong>to</strong>mers, and mitigating other network issues<br />

including bottlenecks or potentially high fault currents.<br />

� <strong>The</strong> additional investments needed <strong>to</strong> develop and deploy advanced<br />

technologies <strong>to</strong> enhance the functionality of the electricity system and achieve<br />

the functionalities of a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>.<br />

Maintain<br />

Reliability<br />

Figure 11 – <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investment types<br />

<strong>The</strong> figure above illustrates that the division between the various investment types may not<br />

be clearly identifiable and for this reason, base cost evaluation is very important as a<br />

platform for benefit evaluation. In the figure above, the first two segments (red and blue)<br />

represent investments required <strong>to</strong> maintain adequate capacity and function of the existing<br />

power delivery system, while the third segment is the additional cost <strong>to</strong> elevate this system<br />

<strong>to</strong> that of a <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>.<br />

31<br />

Power Delivery<br />

Power Delivery<br />

system of the


3.3 Key Assumptions<br />

In this future planning and quantification exercise, cost estimates could be based on four key<br />

assumptions for clarity and consistency:<br />

1. Incorporate technologies that make the electricity system <strong>smart</strong>er, but also stronger,<br />

more resilient, adaptive, and self-healing. Costs are likely <strong>to</strong> decrease while<br />

performance levels are expected <strong>to</strong> increase over the assessment period.<br />

Technological options and the roll-out process will have different impacts on CAPEX<br />

and OPEX.<br />

2. Where reasonable and cost-effective, incorporate solutions which adhere <strong>to</strong><br />

European and national regula<strong>to</strong>ry standards:<br />

� Consistent with the functionality requirements of Mandates M/441, M/468<br />

and / or M/490.<br />

� Complies with public standards and vendors interoperability<br />

� Meets requirements of European renewables targets (and related<br />

European Directives) as well as national roadmaps<br />

� Meets supply quality standards such as EN50160<br />

3. Consider technology and policies that meet load growth and power system needs by<br />

enhancing <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> functionality. <strong>The</strong>se must give due regard <strong>to</strong>:<br />

� <strong>smart</strong>er network management<br />

� <strong>smart</strong>er integrated generation<br />

� <strong>smart</strong>er markets & cus<strong>to</strong>mers<br />

4. Simultaneous deployment of different <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> functionalities will be mutually<br />

beneficial. While deployments will realistically be made along parallel paths and in<br />

discrete steps, planning should consider the interaction between the systems being<br />

deployed (for example, in considering future distribution au<strong>to</strong>mation, it should be<br />

noted if there is likely <strong>to</strong> be <strong>smart</strong> metering deployed in the area over the DA roll-out<br />

period, how the communications systems and additional local data could be<br />

leveraged and add <strong>to</strong> system benefits for little marginal cost increase).<br />

Smart <strong>grid</strong>s will not be rolled out in a single all-encompassing deployment. Grid<br />

development is an incremental and continuous step-by-step learning process, characterised<br />

by different starting points and projects throughout Europe, leveraging on-going advances in<br />

technology and expertise. Rather than instant revolution, this should be a steady evolution<br />

which must include cus<strong>to</strong>mers, energy suppliers and producers.<br />

Project leaders and <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> stakeholders must therefore bring results of research and<br />

demonstration projects <strong>to</strong> the national and European level. <strong>The</strong> dissemination of<br />

information, results, best practices and lessons is vital <strong>to</strong> inform effective development and<br />

integration of optimal solutions. In addition, <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> development can prove a catalyst for<br />

future partnership and action on a larger scale.<br />

32


Success criteria and realistic business cases based on intensive pilots are vital <strong>to</strong> shape views<br />

and raise awareness of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investment needs among public and private stakeholders<br />

on national and European level. Tangible cases in support of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> investment can only<br />

be presented at national and European level if preliminary estimates on costs and benefits<br />

can be presented.<br />

33


4. Conclusion and guidelines<br />

Regula<strong>to</strong>rs and distribution companies are at a unique crossroads. Electricity networks have<br />

developed for decades along a similar path, with the challenge of supplying increasing<br />

demand being met through investment in conventional infrastructural capacity.<br />

<strong>How</strong>ever there is a paradigm shift in electricity generation and supply. Distributed<br />

generation, pushed in energy policy, is playing an ever more dominant role in distribution<br />

networks which were never designed <strong>to</strong> harness that energy.<br />

While the related planning challenges alone could perhaps be met by continued<br />

conventional investment, this would be costly and environmentally unsound. More urgently,<br />

there are a range of operational challenges which need new solutions. Au<strong>to</strong>mation,<br />

protection, control and moni<strong>to</strong>ring must all be developed <strong>to</strong> meet the challenges <strong>to</strong> supply<br />

quality that have already become apparent with the proliferation of distributed generation.<br />

Thus integrating planning and operational solutions, with the required innovation and<br />

ingenuity, could lead <strong>to</strong> optimal, cost-efficient and technically effective, sustainable network<br />

development. <strong>The</strong> key is <strong>to</strong> invest in the right kind of development. Thus investment<br />

decisions need evidence-based, like-for-like comparison of the options available.<br />

<strong>The</strong> methodology described in this paper can have two main purposes, independent but<br />

inherently linked in their goal of informing financial decisions regarding <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

investments. This is a <strong>to</strong>ol <strong>to</strong> aid project leaders in a cost-benefit analysis of their work and a<br />

sound, repeatable method that can assist regula<strong>to</strong>rs in developing the right investment<br />

incentives, based on the comparison of the relative costs and benefits of different <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong><br />

investments and <strong>to</strong> whom they apply.<br />

In developing this methodology, it has been crucial that the outcomes be applicable <strong>to</strong> the<br />

European context rather than just the situation in the United States, for which it was<br />

originally developed. Thus every effort has been made <strong>to</strong> align the American and European<br />

terminology (“services”/“characteristics”, “functions”/“functionalities”).<br />

4.1 Project Leaders: evaluating a project<br />

4.1.1 Evaluating a completed project<br />

Ultimately it is the role of the project leader <strong>to</strong> illustrate the results of the project. If the<br />

technical solution developed in a project is <strong>to</strong> be adopted, a clear concise illustration of the<br />

cost-benefit is vital.<br />

In adopting this approach, as is always the case where there are quantified outputs, the<br />

quality of the available data will have a direct bearing on the outcome’s credibility. This<br />

34


eing the case, the formulae available for benefit quantification are globally recognised and<br />

highly credible. For many of the variables required for quantification a breadth of data is<br />

available.<br />

One example is the case of figures used for inflation. To add most credibility, they should be<br />

appropriate <strong>to</strong> the region of deployment (or from which assets are procured), the currencies<br />

involved and based on credible forecasts by the appropriate economic bodies. <strong>How</strong>ever if a<br />

“<strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>” project is <strong>to</strong> be compared <strong>to</strong> a conventional investment by the same body, the<br />

accepted inflation figure used by the utility in regular investment appraisals may be the most<br />

suitable <strong>to</strong> give an accurate comparison. Similar care must be taken in applying demand<br />

growth projections and the evolution of electricity prices. In all cases, however, it is vital <strong>to</strong><br />

explicitly state the figures used, their sources and, if necessary, the rationale for the choice<br />

of particular figures.<br />

<strong>The</strong> quality of description of project assets – the technology <strong>to</strong> be deployed and<br />

operational/control systems employed – has a significant bearing on what the completed<br />

report will communicate. Smart <strong>grid</strong> development and integration is a field of international<br />

concern and implicit in this is the barrier which language can create. While a written<br />

description of a project’s process and goals has merit, many reviewers will be far better able<br />

<strong>to</strong> objectively evaluate the project and its applications if they receive a comprehensive<br />

overview of the technology involved in the form of technical specifications. Graphical<br />

descriptions giving an overview of the project and integrating the individual assets and<br />

systems tend <strong>to</strong> communicate more universally and directly than text.<br />

Clarity and accuracy are vital <strong>to</strong> ensure that the completed analyses have the highest level of<br />

credibility and that the quality of the project can be best communicated. Indicating the level<br />

of uncertainty in all results ensures that they can be interpreted in context. Future<br />

development of this methodology could perhaps define levels of uncertainty, relating the<br />

“label” <strong>to</strong> sensitivity bands, his<strong>to</strong>rical variation in the quantity in question or other suitable<br />

ranges.<br />

4.1.2 Aiding project planning<br />

Project leaders often find themselves in the challenging position of trying <strong>to</strong> leverage<br />

funding for projects. Without economic merit, even the most technically accomplished<br />

system will never become a solution.<br />

When using this method <strong>to</strong> appraise a project in the planning or pre-planning stages, as aid<br />

in leveraging project funding, it has the potential <strong>to</strong> enhance project planning. Sensitivity<br />

analyses around asset costs, implementation schedules or the balance between budgetary<br />

allowances <strong>to</strong> different areas (technology, installation, marketing, communications) can<br />

prove an invaluable indica<strong>to</strong>r as <strong>to</strong> how best <strong>to</strong> allocate a budget and how <strong>to</strong> structure the<br />

project <strong>to</strong> give the best possible chance of achieving the potential benefits.<br />

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4.1.3 <strong>The</strong> critical role of cost / benefit analyses – deployment proposals<br />

Where a <strong>smart</strong> or innovative technical solution has been implemented and tested in a<br />

demonstration project, the next step is <strong>to</strong> roll out the solution, deploying it where required<br />

across the networks.<br />

Regardless of a project’s technical merit, obtaining investment is a matter of communicating<br />

the expected benefits. Ultimately, communicating benefits is most universal and most<br />

practical when expressed in monetary terms – inves<strong>to</strong>rs must be able <strong>to</strong> see the value that<br />

their initial investment can offer.<br />

While this method is ideal for post-analysis, where the costs and benefits are measured and<br />

real, giving a measured and quantified result, it also provides an instrument for the appraisal<br />

of a full rollout. Inevitably, this is required <strong>to</strong> secure the investment needed.<br />

This method has a unique value where one is looking <strong>to</strong> obtain project funding, in indicating<br />

not only the benefits, but <strong>to</strong> whom they apply. Thus where a project may have limited value<br />

<strong>to</strong> the distribution company – with a similar cost-benefit <strong>to</strong> a conventional investment and<br />

the less tangible benefit of innovation and development of expertise within the company – it<br />

may have a range of benefits for society, the environment or others. <strong>The</strong>se will strengthen a<br />

business case, particularly as presented <strong>to</strong> the regula<strong>to</strong>r whose primary concern is <strong>to</strong> society<br />

at large rather than the distribution company.<br />

4.2 Regula<strong>to</strong>rs & Policymakers: how <strong>to</strong> make informed investment decisions<br />

4.2.1 <strong>The</strong> evolving role of the regula<strong>to</strong>r<br />

Just as the core role of electricity networks is in delivering secure, reliable power supplies<br />

rather than facilitating the technology and systems integrated on them, so the purpose of<br />

“<strong>smart</strong> networks” is in enhancing the security, quality and efficiency of existing networks in<br />

the most cost-effective manner possible. Though attaining environmental targets (EU 2020<br />

targets, Kyo<strong>to</strong> Pro<strong>to</strong>col amongst others) may be an objective in itself, the most cost-effective<br />

means of achieving this will vary from region <strong>to</strong> region, system <strong>to</strong> system or population <strong>to</strong><br />

population.<br />

Regula<strong>to</strong>rs play a central role in supporting the development of the networks of the future<br />

<strong>to</strong> be done by DSOs. <strong>The</strong> solutions integrated in<strong>to</strong> networks, be they conventional<br />

infrastructural upgrades or more complex solutions based on control and communicational<br />

development, will require investment and the investment decisions taken by distribution<br />

companies are heavily influenced by the regula<strong>to</strong>ry environment. Thus regula<strong>to</strong>rs are faced<br />

with the question as <strong>to</strong> what investment incentives are needed <strong>to</strong> best serve the people. A<br />

primary task <strong>to</strong> address this question consists of designing a flexible economic regula<strong>to</strong>ry<br />

framework that allows DSOs <strong>to</strong> take responsibility in making the right investment decisions.<br />

In this view, the methodology presented in this paper provides regula<strong>to</strong>rs with a clearsighted,<br />

broad analysis of the possible benefits of <strong>smart</strong> network investment, necessary for<br />

36


the development of the appropriate regula<strong>to</strong>ry financing model applied <strong>to</strong> DSOs. With the<br />

right incentives for innovation included, such a model will ensure the investment climate<br />

that is needed for <strong>grid</strong> opera<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> further innovate in technologies and systems which<br />

contribute <strong>to</strong> the development of the <strong>grid</strong> <strong>to</strong> play its part in the efficient delivery of a lowcarbon<br />

economy.<br />

Innovation can lead <strong>to</strong> solutions which offer improved network performance – the key is in<br />

supporting the innovation which offers this in an efficient, reliable and cost-effective<br />

manner. Ultimately, environmental sustainability can only be achieved hand in hand with<br />

technological and economic sustainability.<br />

4.2.2 What is a “<strong>smart</strong>” investment?<br />

A “<strong>smart</strong> investment” does not have <strong>to</strong> be heavily reliant on ICT – the <strong>smart</strong>est, most<br />

sustainable investment is the one which achieves the goal at the lowest cost.<br />

Thus determining what constitutes the <strong>smart</strong>est investment is a matter of making a clear,<br />

objective, like-for-like comparison of investment options. <strong>The</strong> methodology proposed here<br />

compares the intended investment option <strong>to</strong> a baseline – the same system without the<br />

investment under investigation having been made. <strong>The</strong> same methodology can be applied <strong>to</strong><br />

any conventional investment <strong>to</strong> directly compare the two solutions: the “<strong>smart</strong>” investment<br />

or the conventional one.<br />

<strong>The</strong> key value in this methodology and its widespread adoption is that it provides a means of<br />

comparing the relative costs and benefits of different projects and options on the most<br />

generic, levelled playing field possible. Thus a range of “<strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>” projects can be<br />

compared by regula<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> understand which offers the most suitable technical solution<br />

while delivering the kind of financial return required in their own economic, political and<br />

legal environment. While no analysis can be considered absolutely accurate or universal, the<br />

adoption of this standard approach at least facilitates the comparison of projects.<br />

4.2.3 Extracting information from other projects in Europe and beyond<br />

Learning from past or on-going projects is vital in assessing future projects under<br />

consideration – the challenge is in identifying how past projects, often in other regions, can<br />

give insight in<strong>to</strong> future projects or deployments in one’s own area.<br />

Projects which have been assessed under the proposed methodology lend themselves <strong>to</strong><br />

this purpose through explicitly highlighting those underlying figures and assumptions in each<br />

calculation which may be region or regime specific. It is important for anybody using past<br />

project evaluations as an indica<strong>to</strong>r <strong>to</strong> take these variables in<strong>to</strong> account. Similarly, the insight<br />

offered in the included sensitivity analyses allow regula<strong>to</strong>rs, policymakers or any other<br />

assessors <strong>to</strong> better apply the results <strong>to</strong> their own context.<br />

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While a project’s exact financial benefits cannot be directly assumed <strong>to</strong> remain the same if it<br />

were repeated or deployed in another region or system, the proportional breakdown of<br />

benefits and benefitting stakeholders should be broadly indicative of the more global<br />

application. Using the sensitivity analyses <strong>to</strong> put the results of a given project in the context<br />

of a specific regula<strong>to</strong>r’s region of concern, an indication of the benefits for various<br />

stakeholders and society in general can be derived.<br />

4.3 <strong>How</strong> distribution companies and regula<strong>to</strong>rs can help work <strong>to</strong>gether<br />

It is in the interest of all those concerned in network development – regula<strong>to</strong>rs, distribution<br />

companies, genera<strong>to</strong>rs and consumers included – that the best, most effective and costefficient<br />

investments be made in a timely manner. Beyond this, innovation will lead <strong>to</strong> new<br />

and more effective solutions. <strong>The</strong>re must be an onus on distribution companies who are<br />

developing and operating networks <strong>to</strong> innovate, design, test and develop solutions which<br />

have the potential <strong>to</strong> be more sustainable. Equally, regula<strong>to</strong>rs must encourage this, but<br />

always in a manner which reflects the concerns of society as <strong>to</strong> economic sustainability.<br />

Both parties will better meet their aims with cooperation. It is imperative that regula<strong>to</strong>rs<br />

clearly communicate what they require, in technical, economic and environmental fields.<br />

<strong>The</strong> support mechanisms or frameworks they intend <strong>to</strong> deliver must be clearly<br />

communicated and the criteria for their application made transparent.<br />

Similarly distribution companies must develop both their systems and their expertise <strong>to</strong><br />

deliver the solutions which will provide benefits <strong>to</strong> all stakeholders in so far as possible.<br />

Both parties must continue <strong>to</strong> perform due diligence both in innovation as <strong>to</strong> how they<br />

operate and in the level of knowledge and expertise amongst their organisations. Only with<br />

the appropriate skills, experience, ability and expertise can either side develop or analyse as<br />

is required <strong>to</strong> achieve positive results. Needless <strong>to</strong> say, these attributes will be increasingly<br />

essential in managing the electrical <strong>grid</strong> of the future.<br />

4.4 European funding solutions<br />

Smart <strong>grid</strong> projects entail inherent uncertainty as they have not yet been tested on a large<br />

scale. Given that large-scale demonstration projects would generate new information on<br />

how <strong>smart</strong> technologies perform in practice, these projects would lead <strong>to</strong> positive<br />

externalities for all <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> ac<strong>to</strong>rs. EU policymakers can help accelerate the development<br />

of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong>s by facilitating financing options for <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects.<br />

In this perspective, EURELECTRIC welcomes the inclusion of <strong>smart</strong> <strong>grid</strong> projects in the<br />

current draft Regulation on Guidelines for Trans-European Energy Infrastructure (part of the<br />

Connecting Europe Facility), as well as the fact that distribution companies are identified as<br />

potential project promoters. <strong>The</strong> methodology outlined in this document could contribute <strong>to</strong><br />

the discussions on the selection and moni<strong>to</strong>ring approach for the implementation of <strong>smart</strong><br />

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<strong>grid</strong> projects of common interest, thereby providing guidance on the evaluation of projects’<br />

contribution <strong>to</strong> the relevant criteria.<br />

Ultimately, EURELECTRIC continues <strong>to</strong> support the SET Plan and the European Electricity Grid<br />

Initiative, believing that knowledge sharing, dissemination of best practices and large-scale<br />

demonstration projects will be needed <strong>to</strong> accelerate and optimise <strong>grid</strong> implementation in<br />

Europe <strong>to</strong> the benefit of cus<strong>to</strong>mers.<br />

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Union of the Electricity Industry - EURELECTRIC aisbl<br />

Boulevard de l’Impératrice, 66 - bte 2<br />

B - 1000 Brussels • Belgium<br />

Tel: + 32 2 515 10 00 • Fax: + 32 2 515 10 10<br />

VAT: BE 0462 679 112 • www.eurelectric..org

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