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TowardSustainableDevelopmentDimensionsof SustainableDevelopmentIndustrialCountriesPoorCountriesRapidlyIndustrializingCountriesPopulation andHumanDevelopmentFood andAgricultureForests andRangelandsWildlife andHabitatAtmosphere andClimateNongovernmentalOrganizations

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1992-93

World ResourcesDr. Allen L. Hammond, Editor-in-ChiefMary E. Paden, Managing EditorRobert T. Livernash, Senior EditorEric Rodenburg, Research DirectorNorbert Henninger, Senior Research AssociateDirk Bryant, Mieke van der Wansem, Research AssistantsMarilyn M. Powell, Production CoordinatorProduction Staff: Timothy Johnston, Fact Checking Coordinator; Daniel Seligman, Fact Checker;Deborah K. Farmer and Terry Stutzman Mast, Production Editors; Suraiya Mosley Saudi,Production Assistant.Senior AdvisorsJ. Alan Brewster, Senior Vice President, WRIThomas Fox, Director, CIDE, WRIMichael M. Gucovsky, Senior Advisor to the Administrator, UNDPMichael D. Gwynne, Director, GEMS, UNEPJessica Tuchman Mathews, Vice President, WRIPeter S. Thacher, Distinguished Fellow, WRIEditorial Advisory BoardDr. M.S. Swaminathan (India), ChairmanHis Excellency Abdlatif Y. Al-Hamad (Kuwait)The Honorable Serge Antoine (France)Mr. William H. Draper III (United States)Dr. Nikita Glazovsky (U.S.S.R.)The Honorable Enrique Iglesias (Uruguay)Ms. Yolanda Kakabadse (Ecuador)Dr. T.N. Khoshoo (India)Dr. Thomas A. Lambo (Nigeria)Dr. Istvan Lang (Hungary)Dr. Uri Marinov (Israel)Mr. Robert S. McNamara (United States)Dr. Liberty Mhlanga (Zimbabwe)Professor Akio Morishima (Japan)Dr. Qu Geping (China)Dr. Jose Sarukhan (Mexico)Mr. James Gustave Speth (United States)Dr. Mostafa K. Tolba (Egypt)Mr. Brian Walker (United Kingdom)

1992-93A Report byThe World Resources Institutein collaboration withThe United NationsEnvironment ProgrammeandThe United NationsDevelopment ProgrammeNew York OxfordOxford University Press1992

The cover shows sunset, lit by Earth's atmosphere, in aphotograph taken by cosmonauts V. Kovalyonok and A.Ivanchenkov on board an orbital space complex Salyut6-Soyuz 29-Soyuz 31. Photo courtesy of Kevin Kelly.The World Resources Institute, The United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, and the United Nations Development Programmegratefully acknowledge permission to reprint fromthe following sources:Part I: Box 2.1, Figure 1, Joint Center for Political and EconomicStudies.Part II: Box 5.2, Figure 1, Politische Okologie magazine.Part III: Figures 8.1 and 8.2, and Box 8.3, Figure 1, InternationalSoil Reference and Information Centre; Figure 9.3, Oceanus,Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (source shouldread p. 27, not p. 29); Figure 11.1, Peter J. Lamb, CooperativeInstitute for Mesoscale Meterological Studies; Figure 12.1,Benjamin L. Peierls, Institute of Ecosystem Studies, The NewYork Botanical Gardens; Figure 12.5, Coastal Resources ManagementProject; Figure 12.6, U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, Chesapeake Bay Program; Figure 12.7, United NationsEnvironment Programme.0Printed in the United States of America on recycled paper.Oxford University PressOxford New York TorontoDelhi Bombay Calcutta Madras KarachiKuala Lumpur Singapore Hong Kong TokyoNairobi Dar es Salaam Cape TownMelbourne Aucklandand associated companies inBerlin IbadanCopyright © 1992 by the World Resources InstituteOxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University PressAll rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise,without the prior permission of Oxford University Press, Inc.Data Tables in Part IV may be reproduced with the permissionof the World Resources Institute.ISBN 0-19-506230-2ISBN 0-19-506231-0 (PBK)Library of Congress Cataloging Number: 86-659504ISSN 0887-0403World Resources is a biennial publication of the World ResourcesInstitute, 1709 New York Ave., NW, Washington, DC, 20006.Printing (last digit): 987654321iv

ContentsPrefaceStatement by Members of the Editorial Advisory BoardAcknowledgmentsIXxixiiPART ISustainable DevelopmentDimensions of Sustainable DevelopmentThe Concept of Sustainable Development; Envisioning SustainableDevelopment; Policy Implications; Global Issues.Introduction to Case StudiesLevels of Economic Development; Comparing Key Trends.Industrial Countries:Dimensions of Sustainable Development; Energy Resources; Agriculturaland Forest Resources; Waste, Pollution, and SustainableTechnologies; A Global Context.Poor Countries:Poverty and Environmental Degradation; Investing in Human Development;Encouraging Economic Development; Protecting theEnvironment; Building on Local Technologies; Mobilizing Resources.Rapidly Industrializing Countries:The NIC Experience; Human Development; Broadening EconomicDevelopment; Conserving Natural Resources; Energy Consumption;Using More Efficient Technology; New Markets, New Products.113172941PART IIRegional Focus5. Central Europe 57How Did It Happen?; The Extent of The Damage; Next Steps: Weighingthe Options.

PART IIIConditions and Trends6. Population and Human Development 75Conditions and Trends: Population Trends; Health Trends; Human Development:A New Measure of Growth; Cholera Epidemics in LatinAmerica and Africa; Focus On Children's Health: Major Causes ofDeath in Children; Improving Children's Health; Industrializationand Urbanization; Building a Global Consensus.7. Food and Agriculture 93Conditions and Trends: Production Trends; Per Capita ProductionTrends; Environmental Trends; Economic Trends; Trade Liberalizationand the GATT Negotiations; Focus On Agriculture in the IndustrializedWorld: Toward Sustainability; Defining Terms; ConventionalAgriculture and Alternative Agriculture; Problems withthe Conventional Model; Agricultural Policies: Creating a New Environment;Policy Impacts: Distorted Price Structures; New Policy Options;The Economics of Alternative Agriculture; Future Directions.8. Forests and Rangelands 111Conditions and Trends: New Soil Degradation Estimates; Trends inDeforestation; Initiatives to Halt Deforestation; Focus On Policies toManage Tropical Forests: National Policy Reforms; International Actions;Respecting the Rights of Local Peoples; Forests, ClimateChange, and Biodiversity.9. Wildlife and Habitat 127Conditions and Trends: Species and Habitat Loss; Areas of High Diversity;Status of Selected Habitats; Global Biodiversity Strategy;Biodiversity Convention; Focus On Conserving Biodiversity: RootCauses of Biodiversity Loss; Conventional Conservation TechniquesDo Not Address Root Causes; Addressing Root Causes; NationalPolicies for Biodiversity; Financial Support.10. Energy 143Conditions and Trends: Energy Production and Consumption; EnergyReserves; Focus On Technology Cooperation in Energy Efficiency:Energy Demand and Energy Efficiency; Energy Efficiency DataBases and Clearinghouses; Exports, Licensing, and Joint Ventures;Joint Development; Model Programs; Future Directions.11. Freshwater 159Conditions and Trends: Freshwater Resources; Water Shortages; Waterand Sustainable Agricultural Development; Water and Sanitation:Decade of Effort; Focus On River Basin Pollution: The Dynamics ofRiver Basins; Sources of Major Pollutants; Low-cost Solutions; InternationalCooperation.12. Oceans and Coasts 175Conditions and Trends: Pollution Trends; Coastal Habitat Destruction;Fisheries Trends; Aquaculture; A Regional Approach to PreventingPollution; Focus On Coastal Pollution: Trends in Marine PollutionControl; Upstream Activities That Pollute Coastal Waters; Vulnerabilityof Coastal Waters to Pollution; Coordinating Pollution Control;Case Studies of Watershed/Coastal Management.vi

13. Atmosphere and Climate 193Conditions and Trends: Urban Air Pollution: Sources, Trends, and Effects;Regional Air Pollution: Sources, Trends, and Effects; Solutions;Global Climate Treaty Talks Proceed; Focus On Greenhouse GasEmissions: Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Targets for Limiting Emissions.14. Policies and Institutions: Nongovernmental Organizations 215Origins and Regional Differences; Strengths and Weaknesses; KeyOrganizational Factors; Government-NGO Relations; EmergingTrends.PART IVData Tables15. Basic Economic Indicators 23515.1 Gross National Product and Official Development Assistance15.2 External Debt Indicators 1979-8915.3 Central Government Expenditures15.4 World Commodity Indexes and Prices, 1975-8916. Population and Human Development 24516.1 Size and Growth of Population and Labor Force, 1950-202516.2 Trends in Births, Life Expectancy, Fertility, and Age Structure,1970-9516.3 Mortality and Nutrition, 1970-9516.4 Access to Safe Drinking Water, Sanitation, and Health Services,1980s16.5 Education and Child Health, 1970-9016.6 Contraceptive Prevalence and Availability17. Land Cover and Settlements 26117.1 Land Area and Use, 1977-8917.2 Urban and Rural Populations, Settlements, and Labor Force,1960-199017.3 Transport and Transport Infrastructure, 1980s18. Food and Agriculture 27118.1 Food and Agricultural Production, 1978-9018.2 Agriculturallnputs, 1975-8918.3 Livestock Populations and Grain Consumed as Feed, 1978-9018.4 Food Trade and Aid, 1977-8918.5 Flow of Cereal Aid from Major Donors to Major Recipients, 198918.6 Climatic Classes and Soil Constraints in Selected Countries19. Forests and Rangelands 28519.1 Forest Resources19.2 Wood Production and Trade, 1977-8919.3 Human-Induced Soil Degradation, 1945 to Late 1980s19.4 Causes of Human-Induced Soil Degradation20. Wildlife and Habitat 29720.1 National and International Protection of Natural Areas, 199020.2 Trade in Wildlife and Wildlife Products Reported by CITES, 198820.3 Management Problems at World Heritage Sites20.4 Globally Threatened Animal Species, 199020.5 Rare and Threatened Plants, 199120.6 Debt-for-Nature Swapsvii

21. Energy and Materials 31321.1 Commercial Energy Production, 1979-8921.2 Energy Consumption and Requirements, 1979-8921.3 Commercial Energy Use by Sector, 1979-8921.4 Municipal Waste in OECD Countries21.5 Production, Consumption, and Reserves of Selected Metals,1975-9021.6 World Reserves of Major Metals, 199022. Freshwater 32722.1 Freshwater Resources and Withdrawals22.2 Large Dams and Hydroelectric Resources22.3 Sediment Loads of Selected Rivers23. Oceans and Coasts 33523.1 Coastal Areas and Resources23.2 Nutrient Discharge and Predicted Concentrations in U.S.Estuaries23.3 Marine Fisheries, Yield and Estimated Potential23.4 Marine and Freshwater Catches, Aquaculture, and FishConsumption24. Atmosphere and Climate 34524.1 CO2 Emissions from Industrial Processes, 198924.2 Other Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 198924.3 Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse and Ozone-Depletmg Gases, 1959-9024.4 World CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption andCement Manufacture, 1950-8924.5 Sulfur and Nitrogen Emissions, 1970-8924.6 Common Anthropogenic Pollutants, 1980-8925. Policies and Institutions 35725.1 Participation in Major Global Conventions—Wildlife, Habitat,and Oceans, 199125.2 Participation in Major Global Conventions—AtmosphereHazardous Substances, and Regional Agreements, 199125.3 Sources of Environmental and Natural Resource Information,199125.4 Sources of Published Global and Regional EnvironmentalInformation, 1991Index 369World Resources Data Base Index 381Organizational Profiles 383viii

PrefaceThe World Resources series is intended to meet the criticalneed for accessible, accurate information on someof the most pressing issues of our time. Wise managementof natural resources and protection of the globalenvironment are essential to achieve sustainable economicdevelopment and hence to alleviate poverty, improvethe human condition, and preserve the biologicalsystems on which all life depends.Publication of World Resources 1992-93, the fifth inthe series, reflects an ongoing collaborative effort ofthe United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),and the World Resources Institute (WRI) to produceand disseminate the most objective and up-to-date reportof conditions and trends in the world's natural resourcesand in the global environment.This volume has a special focus on sustainable development,in support of the upcoming 1992 United NationsConference on Environment and Development(UNCED). Part I consists of four special chapters onsustainable development: an overview chapter andthree case studies of what sustainable developmentmight mean in industrial countries, low-income countries,and rapidly industrializing countries. Additionalmaterial pertinent to this topic is found throughout thevolume. Part II continues the tradition of examining ineach volume a particular region in more detail—in thiscase, an overview of the severe environmental andresource problems faced by Central Europe as that regionmakes a difficult transition to more democraticgovernments and more market-oriented economies.Part III reports on basic conditions and trends, key issues,major problems and efforts to resolve them, andrecent developments in each of the major resource categories,from population and human development toenergy to atmosphere and climate. Where data exist,the chapters give a 20-year perspective on trends in thephysical environment—spanning the time between thefirst United Nations Conference on the Environmentand UNCED. Supporting data, as well as the core datatables from the World Resources Data Base, are foundin Part IV.Additional information and data can be found in theEnvironmental Data Report, published every other yearby UNEP in cooperation with WRI and the U.K. Departmentof the Environment. The Environmental DataReport and World Resources are published in alternatingyears. The forthcoming volume of the Human DevelopmentReport 1992, published by UNDP, will also have aspecial chapter on the environment that bears directlyon the issues discussed in this volume of World Resources.Also forthcoming are UNEP's State of the EnvironmentReport and the World Bank's World DevelopmentReport 1992, which this year will focus on the environment.In an effort to make an expanded set of data accessibleto policymakers, scholars, and nongovernmentalorganizations, WRI is also publishing the World ResourcesData Base—expanded to include 20-year datasets where possible—on diskette.The audience for the World Resources series is steadilyexpanding, with English, Spanish, Arabic, German,Japanese, and Chinese editions now in print. With thisvolume, French and Dutch translations will also beadded. A Teacher's Guide to World Resources is also helpingto make the series accessible and useful to teachersand students.WRI, UNEP, and UNDP share the conviction thatthe World Resources series can best contribute to managementof the world's natural resources and to abroadened awareness of environmental concerns byproviding an independent perspective on these criticalglobal issues. Accordingly, while both UNEP andUNDP have provided essential information and invaluablecritical advice, final responsibility for substanceand editorial content of the series remains with WRI.We commend the World Resources staff for their effortsin assembling and analyzing this unique collectionof information on natural resources and theglobal environment and in producing the volume in atimely fashion. The Editorial Advisory Board, chairedby Dr. M.S. Swaminathan, provided active advice andsupport at all stages of the project. Its call to action onthe issues discussed in this volume—in a signed statementon the following page—deserves broad consideration.We wish to thank the John D. and Catherine T. Mac-Arthur Foundation and the Ford Foundation for theirsupport in this endeavor. Their financial commitmentto the continuation of the World Resources series and itsdistribution throughout the developing world help tomake it all possible. Thanks are also due to the WorldBank for assistance in distribution of the report, to theInter-American Development Bank and the AfricanDevelopment Bank for support of the Spanish andFrench editions, respectively, to the Swedish InternationalDevelopment Authority and the U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency for support to expand andstrengthen the World Resources Data Base, and to theGeraldine R. Dodge Foundation and the National GeographicSociety for support of the Teacher's Guide.Mostafa K. TolbaExecutive DirectorUnited NationsEnvironment ProgrammeJames Gustave SpethPresidentWorld Resources InstituteWilliam H. Draper IIIAdministratorUnited NationsDevelopment Programmeix

Statement by Members of the Editorial Advisory Board"Let the facts speak for themselves." That has been theprinciple guiding the World Resources series from itsfirst volume through this latest edition.It is time, we believe, for one limited exception. Asmembers of World Resources Editorial Advisory Board,we have supervised an outpouring of data and informationthat underscores the alarming degree to whichcurrent patterns of human activity are impoverishingand destabilizing the natural environment and underminingthe prospects of future generations.Fortunately, the opportunity is now at hand for thegovernments of the world's nations and others tocome together in recognition of these disturbingtrends and to act to reverse them. The United NationsConference on Environment and Development(UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 1992 presentsthe opportunity for a generation to focus world attentionon the planet's needs and on those of currentand future generations and to chart a new direction forfuture development.To support these efforts, this issue of World Resourcesaccords central attention to issues relevant to UNCED.The opportunity for action provided by UNCED alsoprompts this special statement. For while the agendarequiring international attention is now widely, if notuniversally acknowledged, we are deeply concernedthat a sense of urgency is lacking and that the costs ofdelay are not adequately appreciated by governments.• Indications abound that the global soil resource base israpidly being degraded. Over the past 50 years, theproductivity of more than 1.2 billion hectares of land—an area larger than China and India together—hasbeen significantly lowered. If such human-causedlosses continue, it will make even harder the task ofproviding food for a world population projected tonearly double by the middle of the next century.• Atmospheric accumulations of climate-threateninggreenhouse gases continue to rise. Of particular concernis carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossilfuels, which now supply 95 percent of the world'scommercial energy. To stabilize atmospheric concentrationsof carbon dioxide, the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change concluded that emissionsmust be cut by 60 percent from present levels. Yet, theworld economy is expected to grow at least fivefold by2050. If that growth is based on expanded use of fossilenergy, the likelihood of global climate change will increasesignificantly.• The biological heritage of the planet is increasingly atrisk. Habitat losses stemming from clearing of forestsor draining of wetlands or from the degradation of ecosystemsthrough destructive fishing, farming, andgrazing practices are leading to reductions in naturalpopulations and the extinction of species at extraordinaryrates. Industrial and urban pollution are puttingadditional stresses on the world's biological diversity.Without urgent measures to conserve these irreplaceableresources, our descendants will inherit a biologicallyimpoverished world.Just as these and other problems are now better understood,so we are beginning to sense the broad outlinesof what must be done to find solutions. We mustseek a series of transitions or transformations to moresustainable paths of development, including:• A technological transition away from today's resourceintensive,pollution-prone technologies to a new generationthat places less stress on the environment;• An economic transition to a world economy based onreliance on nature's "income" and not on depletion ofits "capital;"• A transition to greater social equity aimed at alleviatingpoverty;• A demographic transition to a stable human populationno more than twice the level of today;• A transition in consciousness to a more profound andwidespread understanding of global sustainability;• An institutional transition to new arrangements—among governments and peoples—that can achieveenvironmental security.Each nation, developed and developing, must beginto plot a course toward sustainability on their own,without waiting for others. But much more will beachieved if all countries move in partnership together.The transitions referred to above are needed by bothdeveloped and developing countries.We appeal to governments, to industry and institutions,and to individuals everywhere to respond to thisurgent agenda in ways commensurate with the scaleof the problems.AbdlatifY.Al-HamadSerge AntoineWilliam H. Draper IIINikita GlazovskyEnrique IglesiasYolanda KakabadseT.N. KhoshooThomas A. LamboIstvan LangUri MarinovRobert McNamaraLiberty MhlangaAkio MorishimaJose SarukhanJames Gustave SpethM.S. SwaminathanMostafa K. TolbaBrian Walkerxi

AcknowledgmentsWorld Resources 1992-93 is the product of aunique international collaboration involvingmany institutions and individuals.Without their advice, support, and hardwork, this volume could not have been produced.We are especially grateful for the adviceand assistance of our many colleagues atthe World Resources Institute (WRI), theUnited Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), and the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP). Their advice onthe selection of material to be covered andtheir diligent review of manuscript draftsand data tables, often under time pressure,have been invaluable.InstitutionsWe wish to recognize and thank the manyother institutions that have contributeddata, reviews, and encouragement to thisproject. They include:The Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe United Nations (FAO)The Global Environment Monitoring Systemof UNEP (GEMS)The World BankThe Monitoring and Assessment ResearchCentre (MARC)The United Nations Statistical OfficeThe United Nations Population OfficeThe Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD)The Carbon Dioxide Information AnalysisCenter (CDIAC)The World Conservation Union, formallythe International Union for Conservationof Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN)The World Conservation Monitoring Centre(WCMC)IndividualsMany individuals contributed to the developmentof this volume by providing expertadvice, data, or careful review of manuscripts.While final responsibility for thechapters rests with the World Resourcesstaff, the contributions and help of thesecolleagues are reflected throughout thebook. Special thanks go to UNEP colleaguesJoan Martin-Brown, special advisorto the UNEP executive director, who coordinatedhelp from Washington, and to DanielleMitchell, who coordinated access topertinent UNEP experts in Nairobi. Specialthanks also go to Dan Tunstall of WRI, whoadvised on and reviewed data chapters. Wealso thank our authors, who performed diligentlyand then endured patiently our numerousqueries and often substantial editorialchanges. The primary authors arelisted at the end of each chapter. Reviewers,consultants, and major sources include:Dimensions of Sustainable DevelopmentMona Bjorklund, UNEP; Philip Burgess,MARC; Roger Dower, WRI; Tom Fox, WRI;Taka Hiraishi, UNEP; Jeff Leonard, GlobalEnvironment Fund (Washington); KentonMiller, WRI; Ralph Schmidt, UNDP; G.Schneider, UNEP; Manfred Schneider,UNEP; Martin Smith, UNEP; PeterThacher, WRI; Ann Willcocks, MARC.Industrial Countries Mona Bjorklund,UNEP; Philip Burgess, MARC; RogerDower, WRI; Taka Hiraishi, UNEP; JessicaTuchman Mathews, WRI; Walter Reid,WRI; Ralph Schmidt, UNDP; ManfredSchneider, UNEP; Martin Smith, UNEP;Peter Thacher, WRI; Tony Zamparutti, WRI.Poor Countries Herbert Acquay; RobertBlake, WRI; Jacqueline Carless, MARC; WillieCruz, WRI; Arthur Dommen, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture; Dorothy Etoori,Environmental Ministry (Uganda); TomFox, WRI; Michael Gucovsky, UNDP; TakaHiraishi, UNEP; Jeff Leonard, Global EnvironmentFund (Washington); John Lewis,Center for International Studies (Princeton);Carlos Lopez-Ocana, Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank; Joan Martin-Brown,UNEP; Bill Nagle; Manfred Schneider,UNEP; John Sewell, Overseas DevelopmentCouncil; Jonas Svensson, UNEP; B.M. Taal,UNEP; Peter Thacher, WRI; Dan Tunstall,WRI; Ann Willcocks, MARC.Rapidly Industrializing Countries ChipBarber, WRI; Walden Bello, Institute forFood (San Francisco); Zbigniew Bochniarz,Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs;Robin Broad; Jacqueline Carless,MARC; John Cavanaugh, Institute for PolicyStudies (Washington); UttamDabholkar, UNEP; Aloisi de Laarderel,UNEP; Richard Feinberg, Overseas DevelopmentCouncil; Tom Fox, WRI; StevenGlovinsky, UNDP; Taka Hiraishi, UNEP;Jorge Illueca, UNEP; John Lewis, Center forInternational Studies (Princeton); RobertRepetto, WRI; Jose Sarukhan, UniversidadNacional Autonoma de Mexico; ManfredSchneider, UNEP; John Sewell, OverseasDevelopment Council; Martin Smith,UNEP; B.M. Taal, UNEP; Tony Zamparutti,WRI; Aaron Zazueta, WRI.Regional Focus: Central Europe RichardAckermann, the World Bank; WalterArensberg, WRI; Matthew Auer, U.S.Agency for International Development;Zbigniew Bochniarz, Hubert Humphrey Instituteof Public Affairs; William Chandler,Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories; G.Shabbir Cheema, UNDP; Amy Evans, U.S.Environmental Protection Agency; DuncanFisher, Ecological Studies Institute (London);Hilary French, WorldWatch Institute;P. Garan, UNEP; N. Gebremedhin, UNEP;Nikita Glazovsky, Institute of Geography(Moscow); Peter Hardi, Regional EnvironmentalCenter (Budapest); Z. Karpowicz,IUCN; Stan Kolar, Kolar Associates; IstvanLang, Hungarian Academy of Science;Barry Levy, Management Sciences forHealth (Boston); Richard Liroff, WorldWildlife Fund; Joan Martin-Brown, UNEP;Jeff Michel; Bedrich Moldan; Miklos Persanyi,Cornell University; Peter Peterson,MARC; Jeremy Russell, Royal Institute ofInternational Affairs (London); DanTunstall, WRI; Michael Walsh; StevenWassersug, Regional Environmental Center(Budapest); Piotr Wilczysnki, Oscar LangeAcademy of Economics (Poland).Population and Human DevelopmentMary Barberis, Population Crisis Committee(Washington); Robert Black, The JohnsHopkins School of Hygiene and PublicHealth; Arleen Cannata; Jacqueline Carless,MARC; Joseph Chamie, United NationsPopulation Division; Patrick Cornu, InternationalLabor Office (Geneva); UttamDabholkar, UNEP; Steven Esrey, Water andSanitation for Health Project (Washington);Tom Fox, WRI; N. Gebremedhin, UNEP;Steven Glovinsky, UNDP; O. Gritsai, Instituteof Geography (Moscow); MichaelGucovsky, UNDP; H.R. Haspara, WorldHealth Organization; Carl Haub, PopulationReference Bureau (Washington); LarryHeligman, United Nations Population Division;Kenneth Hill, The Johns HopkinsSchool of Hygiene and Public Health; PamelaJohnson; Alan Lopez, World HealthOrganization; Joan Martin-Brown, UNEP;Monika Mentzingen, UNEP; ThomasMerrick, Population Reference Bureau(Washington); T. Nefedova, Institute of Geography(Moscow); Renate Plaut, PanAmerican Health Organization; Beth AnnPlowman, International Science and TechnologyInstitute; Robert Repetto, WRI; StevenSinding, the World Bank; AlfredSommer, The Johns Hopkins School of Hygieneand Public Health; KatherineSpringer, UNDP; Peter Thacher, WRI;Philip van Hacke, United Nations InternationalChildren's Emergency Fund; VeerleVanderweerd, UNEP; My T. Vu, the WorldBank; Greg Watters, World Health Organization;Kevin Wayne; Mary Beth Weinberger,United Nations Population Division;Robert Weisell, FAO; Nancy Yinger, PopulationReference Bureau (Washington).Pood and Agriculture A. Ayoub, UNEP;David Baldock, Institute for European EnvironmentalPolicy (London); Ed Barbier, InternationalInstitute for Environment andDevelopment (London); Bill Barclay,Greenpeace International; Robert Blake,WRI; Robert Brinkman, FAO; JacquelineCarless, MARC; Chris Chung, OECD; R.James Cook, U.S. Department of Agriculture;Walter Couto, FAO; Michael Dover;Alex Dubgaard, Royal Veterinary and AgriculturalUniversity (Denmark); Ron Duncan,the World Bank; David Ervin, U.S.Department of Agriculture; Paul Faeth,WRI; Tom Fox, WRI; Brian Gardner, EuropeanPolicy Analysis (Belgium); MichaelGucovsky, UNDP; Kim Hjort, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture; Nurul Islam, InternationalFood Policy Research Institutexii

(Washington); Kim Kroll, Rodale ResearchCenter; Rattan Lai, Ohio State University;Nicolas Lampkin, University College ofWales; Bjorn Lundgren, International Councilfor Research in Agroforestry (Nairobi);Joan Martin-Brown, UNEP; T. Maukonen,UNEP; John Mellor; Monika Mentzingen,UNEP; Francesco Pariboni, FAO; LeonardoPaulino, International Food Policy ResearchInstitute (Washington); Peter Peterson,MARC; Katherine Reichelderf er, Resourcesfor the Future; Barbara Rose, InternationalFood Policy Research Institute (Washington);Mark Rosegrant, International FoodPolicy Research Institute (Washington);Pedro Sanchez, International Council forResearch in Agroforestry (Nairobi); D.W.Sanders, FAO; J. Skoupy, UNEP; AnnThrupp, WRI; James Tobey, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture; Dan Tunstall, WRI;Heino von Meyer, Institut Fur LandlicheStrukturforschung (Germany); Friedrichvon Mallinckrodt, UNDP; B. Waiyaki,UNEP; Mark Wenner, U.S. Department ofAgriculture; Michael Young, CommonwealthScience and Industrial Research Organization(Australia); Garth Youngberg,Institute for Alternative Agriculture (Washington);Tony Zamparutti, WRI.Forests and Rangelands Barrie Adams, AlbertaForestry Land and Wildlife; ManuelPaveri Anziani, FAO; Richard Arnold, U.S.Department of Agriculture; A. Ayoub,UNEP; Marc Dourojeanni, Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank; Harold Dregne, TexasTech University; Philip Fearnside, NationalInstitute for Research in Amazonas (Brazil);Luiz Meira Filho, Instituto Nacional DePesquisas Espaciais (Brazil); Tom Fox, WRI;Jose Goldemberg, Universade de Sao Paulo;Luis Gomez-Echeverri, UNDP; David Gow,WRI; Alan Grainger, University of Salford;Christine Haugen, WRI; Harold Heady,University of California, Berkeley; JorgHenninger, Gesellschaft fur TechnischeZusammenarbeit (Paraguay); Klaus Janz,FAO; David Kummer, Clark University;James LaFleur, ECOTEC (Brazil); J.P. Lanly,FAO; Carlos Lopez-Ocana, Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank; Joan Martin-Brown,UNEP; Egnankou Wadja Mathieu, Institutde la Carte International de la Vegetation(France); Dan Yit May, Forestry DepartmentHeadquarters (Malaysia); C. HollisMurray, FAO; M. Norton-Griffiths, UNEP;L.R. Oldeman, International Soil Referenceand Information Centre (the Netherlands);Richard Pardo, International ConservationFund; T.J. Peck, FAO; Peter Peterson,MARC; Gareth Porter, U.S. Environmentaland Energy Study Institute; M. Reimers,UNEP; James Romo, University of Saskatchewan;Alberto Setzer, Instituto Nacional DePesquisas Espaciais (Brazil); K.D. Singh,FAO; David Smith, Yale University; JonasSvensson, UNEP; Juan Torres-Rojo, Secretariade Agricultura y Recursos Hidraulicos(Mexico); Dan Tunstall, WRI; Philip Wardie,FAO; Manuel Winograd, WRI; RobertWinterbottom, U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment (Rwanda).Wildlife and Habitat W. James Batten;Mona Bjorklund, UNEP; Ian Bowles, ConservationInternational; Philip Burgess,MARC; Tom Fox, WRI; Brian Groombridge,WCMC; Michael Gucovsky, UNDP;Jeremy Harrison, WCMC; Barbara Hoskinson,World Wildlife Fund; Daniel Janzen,University of Pennsylvania; Richard Luxmoore,WCMC; Kathy MacKinnon; JoanMartin-Brown, UNEP; John McComb,WCMC; Jeff McNeely, IUCN; KentonMiller, WRI; Robin Pellew, WCMC; PeterPeterson, MARC; Walter Reid, WRI; ChristinaRobinson, The Nature Conservancy;Ralph Schmidt, UNDP; Jonas Svensson,UNEP; Jim Thorsell, IUCN; Dan Tunstall,WRI; Kerry Walter, WCMC; Ann Willcocks,MARC; Ted Wolf, Conservation International;Peter Wyse-Jackson, Botanic GardensConservation International (UnitedKingdom).Energy and Materials Christian Averous,OECD; Fritz Balkau, UNEP; Gustavo Best,FAO; Peter Blair, U.S. Office of TechnologyAssessment; John Blossom, U.S. Bureau ofMines; James Carlin, Jr., U.S. Bureau ofMines; John Christensen, UNEP; WilliamClive, United Nations Statistical Office; ElizabethCreel, U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency; Aloisi de Laarderel, UNEP; DanEdelstein, U.S. Bureau of Mines; Tom Fox,WRI; Sam Fraser, U.S. Bureau of Mines;Jose Goldemberg, Universade de Sao Paulo;Luis Gomez-Echeverri, UNDP; HenryHilliard, U.S. Bureau of Mines; DavidJhirad, U.S. Agency for International Development;James Jolly, U.S. Bureau of Mines;Janice Jolly, U.S. Bureau of Mines; ThomasJones, U.S. Bureau of Mines; William Kirk,U.S. Bureau of Mines; Debbie Kramer, U.S.Bureau of Mines; Peter Kuck, U.S. Bureauof Mines; Camilo Lim, UNEP; HarryMakar, U.S. Bureau of Mines; Joan Martin-Brown, UNEP; Alan Miller, Center forGlobal Change (Maryland); Joyce Ober,U.S. Bureau of Mines; John Papp, U.S. Bureauof Mines; Dianna Richards, U.S. NationalAcademy of Engineering; ErrolSehnke, U.S. Bureau of Mines; Kim Shedd,U.S. Bureau of Mines; Gerald Smith, U.S.Bureau of Mines; Dan Tunstall, WRI; AnnWillcocks, MARC; William Woodbury, U.S.Bureau of Mines; William Zajac, U.S. Bureauof Mines.Freshwater Martine Allard, NationalWater Research Institute (Canada); AlexanderBelyaev, Institute of Geography (Moscow);Philip Burgess, MARC; DebbieChapman; R.J. Daley, Canada Centre for InlandWaters; Luis Gomez-Echeverri,UNDP; Erik Helland-Hansen, UNDP; RichardHelmer, World Health Organization;Maynard Huf schmidt, Environmental PolicyInstitute (Honolulu); John Jackson,MARC; Allen Kneese, Resources for the Future;Joan Martin-Brown, UNEP; DavidMoody, U.S. Geological Survey; Bruce Newton,U.S. Environmental Protection Agency;Martin Smith, UNEP; Joyce Starr, GlobalWater Summit Initiative (Washington);Veerle Vanderweerd, UNEP; J.A. Veltrop,Harza Engineering Company.Oceans and Coasts Philip Burgess, MARC;Donna Busch, National Marine FisheriesService (United States); Adele Crispoldi,FAO; Clif Curtis, Oceanic Society; ArthurDahl, UNEP; James Dobbin, James DobbinAssociates; Nancy Foster, National MarineFisheries Service (United States); Tom Fox,WRI; Luis Gomez-Echeverri, UNDP; DanGrosse, National Marine Fisheries Service(United States); Erik Helland-Hansen,UNDP; John Jackson, MARC; GraemeKelleher, Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkAuthority; R. A. Kenchington, Coastal ZoneInquiry Resource Assessment Commission(Australia); Lee Kimball, WRI; Virginia Lee,University of Rhode Island Coastal ResourcesCenter; Danielle Lucid, National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration(United States); Joan Martin-Brown, UNEP;A.D. Mclntyre, University of Aberdeen; StephenOlsen, University of Rhode IslandCoastal Resources Center; Peter Peterson,MARC; Walter Reid, WRI; Kenneth Sherman,National Marine Fisheries Service(United States); Martin Smith, UNEP; MichaelWeber, National Marine Fisheries Service(United States); Miranda Wecker, Councilon Ocean Law; Harold Weeks, OregonDepartment of Fish and Wildlife; AnnWillcocks, MARC; John Wise; Donna Wise, WRI.Atmosphere and Climate V. Adebayo,UNEP; A. Alusa, UNEP; Tom Boden, CarbonDioxide Information Center, Oak RidgeNational Laboratory; James Crowfoot, Universityof Michigan; Roger Dower, WRI;Tom Fox, WRI; James Galloway, Universityof Virginia; Luis Gomez-Echeverri, UNDP;Robert Hangebrauck, U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency; Erik Helland-Hansen,UNDP; Charles Keeling, Scripps Institute ofOceanography; R. A. Kenchington, CoastalZone Inquiry Resource Assessment Commission(Australia); M.A.K. Khalil, Centerfor Atmospheric Studies (Oregon); DavidKorten, People-Centered DevelopmentForum (Philippines); Jin Kui, World MeteorologicalOrganization (Switzerland); AlanLloyd, California South Coast Air Quality;P.S. Low, UNEP; Jim MacKenzie, WRI;Gregg Marland, Carbon Dioxide InformationCenter, Oak Ridge National Laboratory;Joan Martin-Brown, UNEP; R.K.Pachauri, TATA Energy Research Institute(India); Larry Parker, U.S. CongressionalResearch Service; Lucio Reca, Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank; John Reuther, PittsburghEnergy Technology Center; DavidRichards, Experiment in International Living(Vermont); Kirk Smith, Environmental& Policy Institute (Hawaii); James Speth,WRI; Dan Tunstall, WRI; Veerle Vanderweerd,UNEP; Tony Webster, MARC; AnnWillcocks, MARC; Donna Wise, WRI.Policies and Institutions Janet N. Abramovitz,WRI; Y. Ahmed, UNEP; SheldonAnnis, Boston University; Gilbert Arum,Kenya Energy and Environmental Organizations;David Beckmann, Bread for theWorld; Diane Bendahmane, Inter-AmericanFoundation; Clare Billington, WCMC; MichaelBratton, Michigan State University; L.David Brown, Institute for Development Research(Boston); Tom Carroll, George WashingtonUniversity; Susan Casey-Lefkowitz,IUCN; Michael Cernea, the World Bank;Manab Chakraborty, OXFAM; John Clark,OXFAM; James Crowfoot, University ofMichigan; Uttam Dabholkar, UNEP; Chrisxiii

1 Dimensions of Sustainable Developmentita food production has declined in 69 developingcountries. (See Chapter 18, "Food and Agriculture,"Table 18.1.)• Fossil fuels provide about 95 percent of the commercialenergy used in the world economy, and their useis growing worldwide at the rate of about 20 percentper decade. (See Chapter 10, "Energy," Table 10.1.)Combustion of those fuels constitutes the largestsource of emissions of climate-altering greenhousegases to the atmosphere. Scientists convened by the IntergovernmentalPanel of Climate Change under theauspices of the United Nations Environmental Programmeand the World Meteorological Organizationconcluded that a 60 percent reduction in carbon dioxideemissions would be necessary to stabilize carbondioxide concentrations in the atmosphere at currentlevels. Protecting the Earth's climate therefore may requiresignificant reductions in global fossil fuel use,even as the world economy expands; alternately, continuedexpansion of fossil fuel use at current rates willdouble atmospheric levels well before the middle ofthe next century and thus increase the risk of significantclimate change (l).As these examples illustrate, the world is not nowheaded toward a sustainable future, but rather towarda variety of potential human and environmental disasters.Over the past 20 years, since the Stockholm Conferenceon the Human Environment, the world hasstarted to recognize that environmental problems areinseparable from those of human welfare and from theprocess of economic development in general and thatmany present forms of development erode the environmentalresources on which human livelihoods andwelfare ultimately depend. With this recognition, theUnited Nations established the World Commission onEnvironment and Development to examine these issuesand make recommendations.In Our Common Future, the Commission concludedthat "a new developmental path was required, onethat sustained human progress not just in a few placesfor a few years, but for the entire planet into the distantfuture." Sustainable development, as the Commissiondefined it, is development that "meets the needsof the present without compromising the ability of futuregenerations to meet their own needs" (2).In its broadest outlines, the concept of sustainabledevelopment has been widely accepted and endorsed.However, translating this concept into practical goals,programs, and policies around which nations could coalescehas proved to be harder to accomplish—in partbecause nations face widely varying circumstances.A critically important effort to find common groundand to begin the process of change that sustainable developmentwill require is the United Nations Conferenceon Environment and Development (UNCED). Totake place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 1992, thisconference—and the extensive process of planningand consultation leading up to it—is perhaps theworld's best near-term chance to forge a new consensusthat can facilitate sustainable development. In supportof UNCED, the first four chapters of this editionof World Resources constitute a special report on sustainabledevelopment.THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTIn an attempt to make the concept of sustainable developmentmore specific, some authors have given a narrowdefinition focused on the physical aspects of sustainabledevelopment. They stress using renewablenatural resources in a manner that does not eliminateor degrade them or otherwise diminish their "renewable"usefulness for future generations (3) while maintainingeffectively constant or nondeclining stocks ofnatural resources such as soil, groundwater, and biomass(4) (5). Some economic definitions of sustainabledevelopment have also focused on optimal resourcemanagement, by concentrating on "maximizing the netbenefits of economic development, subject to maintainingthe services and quality of natural resources" (6).Other economic definitions have focused on thebroader notion that "the use of resources today shouldnot reduce real incomes in the future" (7). Underlyingthis notion "is the concept that current decisionsshould not impair the prospects for maintaining or improvingfuture living standards .. ..This implies thatour economic systems should be managed so that welive off the dividend of our resources, maintaining andimproving the asset base" (8).Economic development does not necessarily meaneconomic growth; the type of economic activity canchange without increasing the quantity of goods andservices. But many authors argue that not only is economicgrowth compatible with sustainable development—aslong as it is the right kind of economicgrowth—it is in fact greatly needed to relieve povertyand generate the resources for development (9) andhence to prevent further environmental degradation(10). The issue is the quality of the growth and how itsbenefits are distributed, not mere expansion. Some,however, argue that "sustainable growth" is a contradictionin terms, and that redistribution of wealth notgrowth is the way to combat poverty (li).But economic growth, even growth that meets environmentalcriteria and does not increase consumptionof natural resources or production of waste, may notbe enough to prevent long-term environmental collapse.Constraints on human behavior also apply: on afinite Earth, population cannot grow indefinitely.Sustainable development is also often defined as developmentthat improves health care, education, andsocial well-being. Such human development is nowrecognized as critical to economic development (12)and to early stabilization of population (13). As theHuman Development Report 1991 of the United NationsDevelopment Programme put it, "men, women, andchildren must be the centre of attention—with developmentwoven around people, not people around development"(14). Increasingly, definitions of sustainabledevelopment stress that development must be participatoryand must involve local peoples in decisionsWorld Resources 1992-93

Dimensions of Sustainable Development 1Resource Stabilization: Climate ChangeThe Earth's carbon cycle is being stressedby increasing emissions of carbon dioxidefrom burning fossil fuels and rapidchanges in land use. Emissions from fossilfuel use alone have increased 3.6 timessince 1950. (See Figure 1.) Atmosphericconcentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphereare increasing at 0.5 percent peryear. (See Figure 2.)The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange concluded that such emissions, ifcontinued, will enhance the greenhouse effect,resulting on average in an additionalwarming of the Earth's surface. The Panelestimated that an immediate, 60 percent reductionin emissions would be required tostabilize atmospheric concentrations of carbondioxide at present levels. (See Figure 1.)Figure 1 Worldwide Annual Emission of CO2 from Figure 2 Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations,Industrial Sources, 1860-1989 1860-1990(billion metric tons of carbon dioxide)25-(parts per million)present trend340-//320-300-60% reduction280-1860 1980 2000260-1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, unpublished data, July 1991).See also Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate," Table 24.4.lating rapid development and growth in economiessuch as the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. (See Chapter4, "Rapidly Industrializing Countries.")In all countries, sustainable development meanstransferring money from military and state security expendituresto development needs. Reallocating even asmall portion of the resources now devoted to the militarycould markedly accelerate development (20).Human DimensionsSustainable development means significant progresstoward stable populations. This is important not onlybecause continued growth of the human populationfor long at anything like current global rates is clearlyimpossible, but also because rapid growth puts severestrains on natural resources and on the ability of governmentsto provide services. Within a given countryor region, rapid population growth undercuts developmentand dilutes the natural resource base available tosupport each inhabitant (21).The final size attained by Earth's human populationis also important, because the limits of Earth's carryingcapacity for human life are not known with any accuracy.Current projections suggest that, given presenttrends in fertility, world population will stabilize atabout 11.6 billion, which would more than double thecurrent population. (See Chapter 6, "Population andSource: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ClimateChange: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, andJ.J. Ephraums, eds. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 1990),p. xvi.Human Development.") Even at present levels, populationpressure is a growing factor in deforestation,land degradation, and the overexploitation of wildlifeand other natural resources; as expanding populationsare driven to marginal lands or must overuse resources.Distribution of population is important too: presenttrends toward increasing urbanization, especially thedevelopment of megacities, have massive environmentalimplications. With currently employed technologies,cities concentrate wastes and pollutants and thusoften generate conditions hazardous to people anddamaging to surrounding natural systems. Thus, sustainabledevelopment would mean vigorous rural developmentto help slow migration to cities and adoptionof policy measures and technologies to minimizethe environmental consequences of urbanization.Sustainable development also entails making fulluse of human resources by improving education andhealth services and by combating hunger. It is especiallyimportant that basic services reach those livingin extreme poverty; thus, sustainable developmentwould mean redirecting or reallocating resources to ensurethat basic human needs, such as literacy, primaryhealth care, and clean water, are met first (22). Beyondbasic needs, sustainable development means improvingsocial well-being, protecting cultural diversity, andinvesting in human capital—training the educators,World Resources 1992-93

1 Dimensions of Sustainable Developmenthealth-care workers, technicians and scientists, andother specialists needed for continuing development.Human development also interacts strongly withother dimensions of sustainable development. A populationhealthy and well-fed enough to work and a bettereducated work force, for example, assist economicdevelopment (23). Education can help farmers andother rural inhabitants to better protect forests, soil resources,and biodiversity.The role of women is particularly critical. In manydeveloping countries, women and children grow thesubsistence crops, graze animals, gather wood andwater, use most of the household's energy in cooking,and care for the household's immediate environment.In other words, women are the primary resource andenvironmental managers in the household—as well asthe primary care-givers for children—yet their healthand education are often neglected in comparison tothose of men. More-educated women have greater accessto contraception and, on average, lower fertilityrates, as well as healthier babies. (See Chapter 6, "Populationand Human Development.") Investing in thehealth and education of women can have multiple benefitsfor sustainability.Sustainable development also requires the participationof those affected by decisions in their planningand execution, for the practical reason that developmentefforts that do not involve local groups often fail.Environmental DimensionsSoil erosion and loss of soil productivity reduce yieldsand remove large areas of agricultural land from productionevery year. Overuse of fertilizers and pesticidespollutes surface and groundwater. Human andlivestock pressures damage or destroy vegetation andforests. Many freshwater and marine fisheries are alreadybeing harvested at levels that are now, or areclose to becoming, unsustainable.Sustainable development necessitates protecting thenatural resources needed for food production andcooking fuels—from soils to woodlots to fisheries—while expanding production to meet the needs ofgrowing populations. These are potentially conflictinggoals, and yet failure to conserve the natural resourceson which agriculture depends would ensure futureshortages of food. Sustainable development meansmore efficient use of arable lands and water supplies,as well as development and adoption of improved agriculturalpractices and technologies to increase yields.It requires avoiding overuse of chemical fertilizers andpesticides, so that they do not degrade rivers andlakes, threaten wildlife, and contaminate human foodand water supplies. It means careful use of irrigation,to avoid salinization or waterlogging of cropland. Itmeans avoiding the expansion of agriculture ontosteep hillsides or marginal soils that would rapidlyerode. (See Chapter 7, "Food and Agriculture.")In some regions, water is in as short supply as land,with withdrawals from rivers threatening to exhaustthe available supply and groundwater being pumpedat unsustainable rates. Industrial, agricultural, andhuman wastes are polluting surface and groundwaterand threatening lakes and estuaries in virtually everycountry. Sustainable development means conservingwater by ending wasteful uses and improving the efficiencyof water systems. It also means improvingwater quality and limiting surface water withdrawalsto a rate that would not disrupt ecosystems dependenton those waters, and limiting groundwater withdrawalsto the rate of regeneration. (See Chapter 11, "Freshwater.")The area of wildlands—lands not appropriated tohuman use—continues to decline, reducing the habitatavailable for species other than the few that humansmanage intensively or that can survive in the domesticatedenvironment. Tropical forests, coral reef ecosystems,coastal mangrove forests and other wetlands,and many other unique habitats are being rapidly destroyed,and species extinction is accelerating. Sustainabledevelopment means that the richness of Earth'sbiodiversity would be conserved for future generationsby greatly slowing—and, if possible, halting—extinctions and habitat and ecosystem destruction.(See Chapter 9, "Wildlife and Habitat.")Sustainable development also means not risking significantalterations of the global environment thatmight—by increasing sea level or changing rainfalland vegetation patterns or increasing ultraviolet radiation—alterthe opportunities for future generations.That means preventing the destabilization of climateor other global biogeophysical systems or the destructionof the Earth's protective ozone layer by human actions(see the following section).Technological DimensionsIndustrial facilities have often polluted surroundingair, water, and land. In developed countries, control ofeffluent streams and pollution cleanup are accomplishedat great expense; in many developing countries,effluents are largely uncontrolled. Yet, pollutionis not an inevitable consequence of industrial activity.Such effluents reflect inefficient technologies or wastefulprocesses as well as carelessness and lack of economicpenalties. Sustainable development meansshifting to technologies that are cleaner and more efficient—asclose to "zero emissions" or "closed" processesas possible—and that minimize consumption ofenergy and other natural resources. The goal shouldbe processes or technological systems that create fewwastes or pollutants in the first place, that recyclewastes internally, and that work with or support naturalsystems. In some instances, traditional technologiesmeet these criteria well and should be preserved.Prototypes and possibilities for many such ecologicallymodern technologies exist and are beginning tobe exploited. The transition to such technologies wouldbe supported by expansion of the highly developedeconomies—because these sectors are often less resourceintensive (24). The private sector has a criticalrole in sustainable development because it is the primaryagent in developing and deploying improvedtechnologies. Despite many abuses, private firms oftenWorld Resources 1992-93

Dimensions of Sustainable Development 1Resource Sustainability: Marine Fish CatchFor the first time in history, stocks of mostmarine fish species are now being fully exploited.Annual marine fish catch in 1990was 84,2 million metric tons representinga 35 percent increase since 1980 and morethan a fourfold increase since 1950. Assigns of severe pressure on this resourceaccumulate, there is growing concern thatthese tremendous gains cannot be sustained.In 8 of the world's 17 ocean fisheries,the amount of fish caught exceededthe lower range of the estimated sustainablecatch. (See Figure 1.) In 1980, only 5areas were fished so heavily.Increasing pollution in coastal watersand destruction of coastal estuaries, whichprovide reproduction grounds for 90 percentof the world's marine catch, are alsodegrading the fisheries. Under these circumstances,expanding the catch willprove difficult; it may take years of rehabilitationjust to maintain current productionlevels. (See Chapter 12, "Oceans andCoasts.")Figure 1 Marine Fish Catch as a Percent of EstimatedAverage Sustainable Catch, 1987-89(percent of average sustainable catch)15010050Range of estimated sustainable catch1987-89 catch//y / # £*//y// / cf # #" $ f #"///%/#" / $ # #° # #Source: Chapter 23, "Oceans and Coasts," Table 23.3.Note: Maximum sustainable yields are not defined for Arctic and Antarctic regions.have a better environmental record than do government-runindustries in market economies; nonmarketeconomies have often produced even worse environmentalabuse. (See Chapter 5, "Regional Focus: CentralEurope.") Many major industries—particularly multinationalfirms—arecutting effluents and emissions, reducingunnecessary packaging, or recycling materials afterconsumer use. Sustainable development means encouragingsuch trends and finding additional incentives forresponsible corporate behavior on a global basis.In developing countries, the technologies now in useare frequently less efficient and much more highly pollutingthan those available in industrial countries (25).Sustainable development means rapid introduction ofimproved technologies, as well as improved governmentregulation and enforcement. Technology cooperation—jointdevelopment or adaptation of cleaner andmore efficient technologies to fit local needs—to closethe gap between industrialized and developing countrieswould raise economic productivity as well as preventfurther deterioration in environmental quality.(See Chapter 10, "Energy," Focus On Technology Cooperationin Energy Efficiency.) Such efforts, to be successful,also require significant investments in educationand human development, particularly in poorer countries.Technology cooperation illustrates the interactionof the economic, human, environmental, and technologicaldimensions in achieving sustainable development.Of particular concern are fossil fuels, the use ofwhich is a prime example of an unclosed industrialprocess. These fuels are mined and burned, and thewaste is discarded into the environment. As a result,they are a major source of urban air pollution, of theacid rain affecting large regions, and of the trace greenhousegases that threaten to alter the climate. Currentlevels of emissions of greenhouse gases from humanactivities exceed the Earth's ability to absorb them;short-term effects are uncertain, but most scientistsagree that such emissions cannot be continued indefinitelyat current or increasing levels without causing aglobal warming of the climate. The resulting changesin temperatures, rainfall patterns, and eventually sealevels—particularly if rapid—would have devastatingeffects on ecosystems and on the well-being and livelihoodsof people, especially those directly dependenton natural systems. (See Chapter 13, "Atmosphere andClimate.")Sustainable development means limiting the globalrate of increase of greenhouse gases and, eventually,stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of thesegases. The most important greenhouse gas arisingfrom human activity is carbon dioxide, which accountsfor about half of the atmospheric warming potentialof current greenhouse gas emissions; combustionof fossil fuels accounts for about three fourths ofsuch carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, sustainable developmenthas profound implications for world en-World Resources 1992-93

1 Dimensions of Sustainable Developmentergy supplies: it means that, over time, use of fossilfuels must be greatly curtailed and other sources of energyfound to support industrial societies. The industrialcountries will need to take the initial steps to limitcarbon dioxide emissions and to develop new technologiesfor using fossil energy more efficiently and forproviding safe and affordable supplies of nonfossil energy.Until such technologies are in place, however,sustainable development means using fossil fuels as efficientlyas possible in all countries.Sustainable development also means preventing degradationof the Earth's protective ozone layer. Actionstaken to deal with this problem provide an encouragingprecedent: the Geneva Convention and the subsequentMontreal Protocol, which require a phase out ofozone-threatening chemicals, show that internationalcooperation to deal with global environmental threatsis possible.POLICY IMPLICATIONSThe dimensions of progress toward sustainable developmentoutlined in the preceding section are demandingand will not be achieved without internationalcooperation, political will, and improved policies. Butpolicy levers do exist that could move the world in thedirection of sustainable development. Although theparticulars of any policy must be adapted for specificcountries and situations, the policy directions outlinedin this section provide a starting point.Economic PoliciesProper Resource PricingResources that are undervalued are often wasted. Pricesignals are thus a powerful policy tool to support moresustainable development.Many industrial countries have natural resource subsidies,established in another era, that encourage productionor support often wasteful levels of consumption.Proper resource pricing may mean elimination ofsubsidies for irrigation water, grazing rights, use of fertilizer,timber cutting, and production of fossil fuels.The fact that some resources, such as clean air andwater, are unpriced has encouraged pollution. Althoughregulations can restrict such behavior, pricingpolicies such as direct pollution taxes (based on theprinciple of "the polluter pays") and tradable emissionpermits may be more efficient and more effective. Energytaxes based on the carbon content of the fuel,such as those proposed by the European Communityto stabilize carbon dioxide emissions, are an exampleof the type of pricing policies that could support moresustainable economic development.Proper resource pricing is equally important in developingcountries. For example, forest resources havebeen undervalued, which has led to chaotic exploitationof timber, with little development benefit and seriousecological damage. Realistic resource pricing andrecognition of the value of nontimber commoditiesand ecological services, along with enforcement of conservationpolicies, would promote more sustainabledevelopment. Similar considerations apply to othernatural resources.Access to ResourcesMany of the rural poor do not own the land they farmor have only insecure rights at best. Yet secure rightsto land, trees, and other resources encourage people toinvest in and conserve such resources. In addition, thedistribution of land and other natural resources is oftenextremely skewed: much good land is underutilizedwhile the rural poor crowd onto hillsides withfragile soils or pour into forests. Where large tracts ofproductive land lie idle, breaking these lands intosmaller holdings to be farmed more actively wouldoften be even more productive and could providesome of the rural poor with better livelihoods. Land reformand similar policies are controversial and politicallydifficult, yet have proved to be an importantstimulus to development where they have occurred.(See Chapter 4, "Rapidly Industrializing Countries.")Policies that reduce the value of large underutilizedholdings as inflation hedges and tax shelters facilitateland reform. Such policies include increases in landtaxes, elimination of credit subsidies, especially to livestockoperations, and lasting control over inflation.Because sustainable development can be considereda form of investment in the future, many policies thatfavor investment—including investment in new knowledgeor improved technologies—or environmentalprotection at the expense of current consumption canassist sustainable development.People-Oriented PoliciesSetting PrioritiesMany development programs have neglected the poorestsegments of societies. Priorities need to be reorderedto commit public funds first to provide a basiclevel of services for all. Policies that favor urban overrural development or that discriminate against agriculturaldevelopment also need to be reconsidered. Thosewho are better off should be required to pay for servicesbeyond the basic level in education, health, urbanservices, transportation, and other development sectors.Giving priority to alleviating poverty is appropriateon both moral and practical grounds. Rural developmentis critical to initiating economic development,to stabilizing population growth, and to preventingfurther degradation of soils, forests, and other naturalresources.Investing in Human DevelopmentProviding more and better education, health care, andrelated social services is an essential strategy forachieving sustainable development. There is evidencein the performance of rapidly growing economies thatinvestment in human development is also one of themost effective ways to accelerate economic growth (26).A recent report concluded that developing countriescould usefully redirect much current spending—in excessof 2 percent of gross domestic product—towardWorld Resources 1992-93

Dimensions of Sustainable Development 1Resource Stabilization: Stratospheric OzoneFigure 1 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, 1979-91(percent peak depletion of ozone)Stratospheric ozone, which absorbs muchof the sun's damaging ultraviolet rays, isbeing depleted by the production and useof chlorofluorocarbons and other relatedcompounds. Increases in ultraviolet radiationcause skin cancers and cataracts, andmay disrupt the marine food chain anddamage crops.Recent measurements indicate that peakozone destruction (during polar spring)has reached 60 percent over Antarctica.(See Figure 1.) For the first time, significantozone losses have also been found atmid-latitudes (45° corresponds toChristchurch, New Zealand in the southand Minneapolis, Minnesota in the north).There are preliminary indications of anArctic ozone hole over the North Pole.Only equatorial regions so far show nosignificant ozone losses.Because chlorine and bromine chemicalsalready released to the atmosphere willreach the stratosphere in coming years,ozone losses are expected to increase atleast through the end of the century. Evenif use of such chemicals is rapidly eliminated,full recovery of the ozone layer isnot expected until about the year 2100.(See Chapter 13, "Atmosphere and Climate.")60-50-40-30-20-10-0.1145° North 45 South AntarcticaSource mrce: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations EnviroiProgramme (UNEP), "Scientific Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone, 1991,"tive summary (WMO, October 22,1991), pp. 2 and 4.human development. Because so much spending ismisdirected or inefficiently used, efforts to reduce militaryor state security expenditures, halt capital flight,combat corruption, and reform or privatize unsuccessfulpublic enterprises could make available largeamounts of money to support human development (27).Industrial countries, too, have many unmet humanneeds among their populations. Reducing military expenditurescould provide the resources to meet thoseneeds. Concentrating foreign assistance on human andeconomic development rather than on armamentswould better help the populations of recipient countries—andprobably the cause of peace.A wide range of policies can support human development.Low-cost, community-based health, nutrition,and family planning programs have achieved remarkablereductions in birth and death rates in unpromisingsettings. Urban self-help and community improvementprograms that are largely self-financinghave dramatically improved urban environments. (SeeWorld Resources 1990-91, Chapter 5, "Human Settlements.")Small credit programs have reduced poverty.Providing seedlings, credit, and land to landless peasantshas raised incomes and promoted reforestation.Grasping these opportunities on the scale neededwill require significant policy and institutional changes.Among the most important of these changes is theneed to decentralize responsibility for planning and executingdevelopment programs, since centralized agenciesoften lack the information or resources to dealwith many dispersed small activities. Policies that empowercommunity organizations—to ensure that thedisadvantaged benefit and that local capabilities are involved—alsofavor sustainable development. (SeeChapter 14, "Policies and Institutions.")Stabilizing PopulationsThe essential elements of policy to slow populationgrowth are known. Stated broadly, a shift in prioritiesto alleviate poverty, a focus on human development—especially for women and children—and the proliferationof basic health and family planning services areneeded. The first two of these are discussed above; thethird is discussed here.There are now adequate models of low-cost, community-basedhealth and family planning programs onwhich to build. Successful programs tend to integratehealth and family planning services; they use communityorganizations, leaders, and workers extensively;invest heavily in training of paraprofessionals, local facilities,outreach, and education; and emphasize costeffectiveinterventions such as immunization, pre- andpostnatal care, and nutrition and family planning education.Expanding such programs rapidly through increasesin trained personnel, facilities, and fundingand providing contraceptives to all women who wantthem, would help stabilize populations.Environmental PoliciesStabilizing ClimateThe policy change most fundamental to climate stabilizationis an international commitment to reduce use ofWorld Resources 1992-93

1 Dimensions of Sustainable Developmentfossil fuels for energy, at least in industrial countries.One means of accomplishing this is higher prices forfossil fuels (28). Such a policy might take the form of escalatingenergy taxes based on the carbon content offuels. Gradually rising prices would promote both energyefficiency and more rapid development of renewableenergy resources. Such policies are often opposedon the grounds that they would retard economicgrowth. If the revenues from such taxes were offset byreduced taxes of other kinds, however, they couldhave a profoundly positive environmental effect withoutslowing economic growth.A recent study by the U.S. National Academy of Sciencesconcluded that 10-40 percent of current U.S.greenhouse gas emissions might be abated at modestcost; half those emissions might be eliminated with neteconomic savings, through cost-effective improvementsin energy efficiency (29). Significant energy efficiencygains are possible in many countries, withconsequent reductions in both local pollution andgreenhouse gas emissions.It is critical that international agreements be reachedon steps to stabilize concentrations of greenhousegases. Without such agreement, decisive national actionscannot be expected. It is also important for countriesto pursue policies that would yield nationalbenefits even in the absence of climate change, butwhich also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Examplesinclude energy efficiency improvements, arrestingdeforestation, and expanded technology cooperationto provide access to resource-efficient, low-pollutingtechnologies for developing countries.Sustaining AgricultureSoil deterioration can be stopped only if farmers andagribusinesses adopt soil-conserving farming systemsand invest in soil conservation. Most current incentivespromote the opposite. Subsidies for agriculturalchemicals, for example, encourage many farmers (butnot those who are too poor to buy fertilizers and pesticides)to stick with soil-depleting monocultures, andmake the cost of maintaining yields in the face of decliningsoil productivity artificially cheap. These subsidiesare widespread in developing countries and discouragesustainable farming practices.In Europe, the United States, and Japan, farm subsidiesin the form of commodity support programs alsoencourage very high use of fertilizers and pesticideson cultivated land; the resulting runoff into streamsand rivers makes agriculture the largest source of nonpointpollution. Import barriers also keep many foreignproducts off store shelves. Elimination of domesticsubsidies and removal of trade barriers in farmproducts would encourage farmers to adopt more sustainableand less environmentally damaging farmingsystems in developed and developing countries. (SeeChapter 7, "Food and Agriculture.")In addition, agriculture is the only major sectorlargely exempt from the "polluter pays" principle. Althoughthe substantial damages that result from agriculturalrunoff cannot be reflected directly in pollutioncharges, they could be addressed through taxes on agriculturalchemicals, water charges, and other inputs.In very poor countries, however, where poverty andsubsistence agriculture are widespread and food productionis inadequate, rather different policies—thosethat support rural development and expanded foodproduction—are needed. (See Setting Priorities, above.)Conserving BiodiversityUsing biological resources without diminishingbiodiversity will require improved efforts to preventdegradation of key natural habitats and to preservethe health of ecosystems. Attention must be focusednot only on protected areas, threatened species, andseed banks, but also on striking a balance betweenpeople's needs and nature's in many human activities.Adoption of a "convention on biodiversity" wouldprovide a critically needed international frameworkfor such efforts. National policies in such areas as forestry,fisheries, and wildlife management need to bereconsidered to be sure that they provide economic incentivesand legal frameworks that support biodiversityconservation. In addition, virtually all countriesneed to improve their institutional and human capacityto manage and conserve biodiversity; the need isparticularly acute in developing countries. Local communityinvolvement is essential to ensure that those directlyaffected will both support biodiversity conservationand receive a greater share of the benefits frombiological resources.Biotechnology is radically altering the value of geneticresources. Treating such resources as "the commonheritage of humankind" has provided little conservationincentive and has led to inequities in the distributionof benefits from biodiversity. Countries mayneed to declare sovereignty over genetic resources andadopt clear regulations concerning their collection. Privatecompanies need to recognize such rights and negotiateroyalties or other forms of participation forproducts derived from a country's genetic resources; arecent agreement between a major drug company andCosta Rica deserves to be widely copied. (See Chapter9, "Wildlife and Habitat.")Creating Sustainable SystemsIncentives to Reduce Pollution and WastesAs long as households and enterprises can dispose ofwastes into the environment freely or with little restriction,demand for cleaner technologies will lag. As longas energy, water, timber, and other natural resourcesare underpriced, demand for energy- and resource-efficienttechnologies will be depressed. In industrialcountries, environmental regulations and price signalsneed to be strengthened. In developing and formerlysocialist countries, governments need to be persuadedand helped to put in place effective systems of environmentalmanagement, relying on market incentives to amuch greater extent.In addition to economic incentives, the pressure ofpublic opinion can be an extremely strong force sup-World Resources 1992-9:10

Dimensions of Sustainable Development 1porting the adoption of cleaner, more efficient technologies.Citizens' groups and nongovernmental organizationscan play a key role here. (See Chapter 14,"Policies and Institutions.") In the United States, lawsrequiring disclosure of toxic releases have been a morepotent force for emission reduction than any othertoxic-substance regulatory requirement. In contrast,the absence of information available to the public inEastern and Central Europe was a factor in allowingpollution to grow to dangerous levels with little publicoppo ! tion. (See Chapter 5, "Regional Focus: CentralEurope.")Market processes can be brought to bear on naturalresource valuation through mechanisms such asprivatization, deregulation, creation of markets (e.g.,for water rights), and use of auctions for rights to useresources in the public domain. In addition, environmentalcosts need to be reflected in market prices byapplying the "polluter pays" principle, using environmentalcharges and taxes. Monitoring and informationtechnologies have progressed to the extent that chargesbased on actual emissions, congestion, and otherforms of environmentally damaging behavior can beadministered successfully, at least in industrial countries.Raising revenues by taxing social "ills," such aspollution, instead of social "virtues," such as work andsavings, can raise economic productivity and promotesustainability.Technology Development and CooperationMany unexploited opportunities for adopting cleaner,more efficient technology or practices already exist inindustrial and developing countries alike. More arerapidly being created. A key question is: which policieswill promote their use, both in the country of originand in other countries.Creating demand for such technologies, as describedabove, is one important approach. Strengthening environmentalmanagement capacity and enforcementpractices in developing countries through technical assistancewill also increase demand for improved technology.Reducing disincentives for licensing and othercommercial transfers is another approach. For example,greater global acceptance of and adherence to patenttreaties that protect innovations (which somedeveloping countries have not yet signed) will speeddiffusion of technology. So will reducing barriers toprivate investment.Many technologies, however, need to be adapted ordeveloped to meet local conditions and preferences.Improved technology cooperation among countrieswill improve access to new ideas—on everything frommonitoring and testing systems, to energy efficiency,to regulatory design—and accelerate their use. Informationsharing, joint ventures, and new internationalinstitutions such as technology "extension services" ordevelopment institutes are needed. Few programsnow exist to facilitate such technology cooperation.(See Chapter 10, "Energy," Focus On Technology Cooperationin Energy Efficiency.)GLOBAL ISSUESEffects of War on Development and theEnvironmentThe 1991 Persian Gulf War was a dramatic reminderthat environmental destruction can be swift and deliberaterather than gradual and inadvertent. Equally,the war and its aftermath underscored the extent towhich military conflict—and preparations for it—are acontinuing threat to sustainable development.The war brought widespread damage to the region'sair, water, land, vegetation, animal life, and people.The environmental damage included:• Smoke, soot, and a mist of unburned oil droplets fromburning oil wells that created potentially hazardous airpollution and covered vegetation and virtually everythingelse with oil;• Huge lakes of spilled oil and a land surface pulverizedby bombs and plowed up by military vehicles, leavingbadly disturbed and easily eroded soils;• The largest oil spill in history, into the very slowlyreplenished waters of the Persian Gulf, damagingbeaches and birds and raising the possibility of accumulationof toxic materials in the food chain of a fisheryon which many people depend for food;• Similar damage to crops and other vegetation and toanimals from contaminated forage and water; and• Release into the environment of radioactive materialsand toxic chemicals when an Iraqi nuclear reactor,chemical warfare factories, and refineries were bombed.War is the antithesis of development; both Iraq andKuwait must rebuild a substantial portion of their industrialplant and infrastructure. Even less dramaticwars, however, make development efforts next to impossibleand, especially in poor countries, cause widespreaddestitution, famine, and social disruption. Byone accounting, there have been 127 wars and violentinternal conflicts since 1945, all but two of them in thedeveloping world, although often with industrialcountries' direct involvement (30). Such conflicts have adirect effect on economic performance and development.One study found that most precipitous declinesin economic growth could be traced to serious politicaldisturbances and civil or international violence (31). Apartial list of victims in just the last decade is long:Sudan, Ethiopia, Chad, Somalia, Nigeria, Uganda, Mozambique,Angola, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon,Haiti, Peru, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Cambodia, andMyanmar. That these are among the world's poorestcountries and also rank relatively low in human developmentis no accident (32).Warfare and the preparations for it have indirect effectson environment and development as well. Thepreparations for war consume a large proportion of nationalbudgets, spending that could be better directedto development efforts. Over the past three decades,spending on military and state security in developingcountries has risen three times faster than in industrialcountries, growing at a rate of 7.5 percent per year. In1987, annual military spending in developing countriesamounted to $173 billion; in some poor countries,World Resources 1992-9311

1 Dimensions of Sustainable Developmentarms expenditures are now two to three times thespending on education and health (33). In the wake ofwar, poor people desperate for food and livelihoodoften further degrade their environment. Sustainabledevelopment means reversing such spending prioritiesand reducing military conflicts.The Debt BurdenMuch of what needs to be done to move toward sustainabledevelopment is within the power of individualnations, including setting new policies and reallocatingtheir resources. For many nations, however, onemajor barrier to development is the size of their externaldebts. Debt payments often constitute a large shareof the national budget, squeezing out needed investmentsin environmental protection or economic andhuman development. In some countries, debt serviceobligations are so large that they exceed new loansand private external investment, meaning that financialresources are flowing out of, rather than into, thecountry. The need to make debt payments can alsolead government officials to focus on short-term problemsto the exclusion of the longer-term issues onwhich sustainability ultimately depends. Reschedulingor canceling debt can help progress toward sustainabledevelopment.CONCLUSIONReaching the goal of sustainable development requiressimultaneous progress along at least four dimensions—economic, human, environmental, and technological.There are close linkages among these different dimensions,and actions in one area can reinforce goalsin another. For example, heavy investment in humancapital, especially among the poor, supports efforts toreduce poverty, to rapidly stabilize population, to narroweconomic inequalities, to prevent further degradationof land and biological resources, and to allowrapid development and use of more efficient technologiesin all countries.Technological innovation is itself an important crosscuttingtheme. Sustainability will require continuingtechnological change in industrial countries to reduceemissions and resource use per unit of output. It willalso require rapid technological change in developingcountries, especially those that are industrializing, toavoid repeating the developmental mistakes and multiplyingthe environmental damage of industrial countries.Technological improvement is also critical toreconciling development objectives and environmentalconstraints.Sustainable development will require a fundamentalchange in existing policies and practices. Such changewill not come easily, and will not come at all withoutstrong leadership and the continued efforts of peoplein many countries.This chapter is based on a background paper by Robert Repetto; itincludes additional contributions from other senior staff members ofthe World Resources Institute.References and Notes1. Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), Climate Change: The IPCCScientific Assessment, T. Houghton, G.J.Jenkins, and JJ. Ephraums, eds. (CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, U.K., 1990),pp. xi and xvii.2. World Commission on Environment andDevelopment, Our Common Future (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1987), pp. 4and 8.3. Robert Goodland and George Ledec, "NeoclassicalEconomics and Principles of SustainableDevelopment," Ecological Modelling,Vol. 38 (1987), p. 36.4. David W. Pearce, Edward B. Barbier, andAnil Markandya, Sustainable Developmentand Cost Benefit Analysis (London EnvironmentalEconomics Centre, London, 1988),p. 6.5. Charles Howe, Natural Resource Economics(Wiley, New York, 1979), p. 337.6. Edward B. Barbier, Economics, Natural Resources,Scarcity and Development: Conventionaland Alternative Views (EarthscanPublications Ltd., London, 1989), p. 185.7. Anil Markandya and David W. Pearce,"Natural Environments and the Social Rateof Discount," Project Appraisal, Vol. 3, No. 1(1988), p. 11.8. Robert Repetto, World Enough and Time(Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut,1986), pp. 15-16.9. Jim MacNeill, "Strategies for SustainableEconomic Development," Scientific American,Vol. 261, No. 3 (September 1989), pp.155-156.10. Op. cit. 2, p. 89.11. Herman E. Daly, "Towards Some OperationalPrinciples of Sustainable Development,"Ecological Economics, Vol. 2 (1990),pp. 1 and 5.12. United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report 1991 (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1991), pp. 1-2.13. Op. cit. 2, pp. 55-56.14. Op. cit. 12, p. 1.15. James Gustave Speth, "The Environment:The Greening of Technology," Development,Vol. 2, No. 3 (1989), pp. 30-32.16. George Heaton, Robert Repetto, and RodneySobin, Transforming Technology: AnAgenda for Environmentally SustainableGrowth in the 21st Century (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1991), p. ix.17. Robert M. Solow, "Sustainability," J. SewardJohnston Lecture (Woods Hole OceanographicInstitution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts,1991), pp. 1-13.18. IUCN-the World Conservation Union,United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), and World Wide Fund for Nature(WWF), Caring for the Earth (IUCN, UNEP,and WWF, Gland, Switzerland, 1991), p. 10.19. The OECD member countries are Australia,Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland,France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland,Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,New Zealand, Norway, Portugal,Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, theUnited Kingdom, and the United States.The developing countries include all countriesexcept for OECD members, the SovietUnion, and Central European countries.20. Op. cit. 12, p. 10.21. Robert Repetto, "Population, Resources, Environment:An Uncertain Future," reprintedfrom Population Bulletin, Vol. 42, No. 2(1989), pp. 14-34.22. Op. cit. 12, pp. 49-53.23. Op. cit. 12.24. Op. cit. 16, pp. 7-9.25. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment(OTA), Energy in Developing Countries(OTA, Washington, D.C., January 1991), pp.64-66.26. Op. cit. 12.27. Op. cit. 12, p. 5.28. James J. MacKenzie, Toward a Sustainable EnergyFuture: The Critical Role of Rational EnergyPricing (World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., May 1991), p. 7.29. National Academy of Sciences, Policy Implicationsof Greenhouse Warming (NationalAcademy Press, Washington, D.C., 1991),pp. 59 and 63.30. Ruth L. Sivard, World Military and Social Expenditures1989 (War Priorities, Washington,D.C., 1989), p. 22.31. Robert Repetto, "Coping with the Eighties:Lessons from the Seventies," report preparedfor the United Nations Department ofInternational Economic and Social Affairs,New York, 1981, p. 6.32. Op. cit. 12, Table 1, pp. 119-121.33. Op. cit. 12, p. 82.12World Resources 1992-93

Introductionto Case StudiesThe preceding chapter argues that economic development,to be sustainable, cannot neglect environmentalconstraints nor be based on the destruction of naturalresources; that it cannot succeed without the paralleldevelopment of human resources; and that, to be sustainableon a global level, it will require transformationof the existing industrial base and the developmentand diffusion of more Earth-friendly technologies.Yet sustainable development remains a difficult, confusing,and even controversial idea. One of the problemsis that, quite literally, there are no extant examplesof sustainable development on a national level.Neither the industrial countries of the Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) northe planned economies of Central Europe nor thenewly industrialized economies of Southeast Asiaoffer adequate models: all achieved rapid industrialand economic growth at the expense of widespread environmentaldegradation and a continuing record ofdisasters, from the poisoning of Minamata Bay inJapan in the 1960s to Chernobyl in the Soviet Unionand the Exxon Valdez oil spill in the United States inthe 1980s. In the absence of explicit, widely recognizedmodels, the concept of sustainable development andthe policies needed to put it into practice are still evolvingand open to debate.A second problem is that sustainable developmentmeans different things to different people. To a villagelevelofficial in sub-Saharan Africa, it may mean, firstand foremost, dealing with poverty and human miserythrough health and education services to get developmentstarted; to an environmental minister inEurope, it may mean protecting the physical environmentby limiting emissions of both greenhouse gasesand other effluents that cause acid rain; to an economicplanner in Latin America or Southeast Asia, itmay mean seeking to invest the income from loggingoperations in reforestation programs, so that the forestresource can be renewed. The resulting diversity ofperceptions does not make coherent discussion easy,and the diversity of actual situations makes generalizationsdangerous.World Resources 1992-9313

Introduction to Case StudiesLEVELS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTThe following three chapters present three case studiesthat amplify the dimensions of sustainable developmentproposed in Chapter 1 and apply them to countriesexemplifying three different levels of development.These case studies are designed to illustrate thevery different challenges that confront countries at differentlevels of development, to offer examples of successfulsteps some countries, regions, or villages havetaken toward more environmentally sustainable formsof development, and to suggest opportunities for additionalpolicies and actions specific to each level of development.The case studies focus on three groups of countries:Industrial countries, as exemplified by OECD countriesas a group and, in particular, by the UnitedStates;Poor countries, as exemplified by countries in Africa,Asia, and the Americas that have been identified by internationaldevelopment agencies as ranking low onindicators of income or human development. For purposesof statistical comparisons, this grouping includessome 40 low-income countries as identified bythe World Bank; China and India are included in thisgroup but are shown separately because of their sizeand extensive industrial sectors.Rapidly industrializing countries (RICs), as exemplifiedby three Southeast Asian countries (Thailand, Indonesia,and Malaysia) and three Latin Americancountries (Mexico, Brazil, and Chile). A number ofother countries are also industrializing rapidly or havestrong industrial sectors, and much of this chaptermay also apply to those countries.These groupings were chosen to provide examplesfrom the extremes of economic development—bothvery rich countries and countries that are very poor orhave large concentrations of very poor people—aswell as examples from countries that are in betweenthese extremes. Some countries—such as China andIndia—have both large rural populations facing oneset of development problems and vigorous industrialsectors facing another set of development problems.The case studies are in no sense comprehensive.Rather, they are intended to further discussion by givinga more concrete sense of what sustainable developmentmight mean and by illustrating in specificcontexts both the problems and some starting pointsfor solutions.COMPARING KEY TRENDSThe case study groupings can be delineated moreclearly by comparing trends among them. Althoughstatistical comparisons may mask complex realities,they also reveal striking trends in how regions haveprogressed over the past 20 years and in how theycompare with each other. Clearly, there has been progressin many areas, but there has been no narrowing ofthe gap between rich and poor countries— economicallythe gap is widening. It is also clear that the RICsFigure 1 Trends in Gross National ProductPer Capita, 1969-89(thousands of U.S. dollars)5-^1970^- OECD RICs -- China& India — Poor1975Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).19801985Figure 2 Trends in Primary SchoolEnrollment, 1970-88(percent of eligible children enrolled)15-10-100-80-60-40-20-— OECD RICs - - China & India — Poor//19901970 1975 1980 1985 1990Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).and China and India show progress in human developmentthat surpasses their economic progress.Finding broad, widely monitored indicators of thefour dimensions of sustainable development is difficult.Worldwide country-level data on economic andhuman development trends is more available thandata on environmental or technological trends. GNPper capita is a broad measure of a country's economicdevelopment although it says nothing of the distributionof wealth within the country. Primary school enrollmentand child mortality are generally acceptedindicators of a population's relative education andhealth, two criteria for human development. Globally,a comparison of commercial energy use per capita indi-14World Resources 1992-93

Introduction to Case StudiesFigure 3 Trends in Under-Five Mortality,1970-90{a}Figure 5 Trends in Energy Consumption PerCapita, 1970-89(child deaths per 1000 births)(gigajoules per capita)300-RICs— OECD Countries250-200-•ChinaS India•———-_~ Poorest Countries150-— OECD^^150-100-RICs-- China & India— Poor100-50-50-• _ _.........o-l—i—i—i—1970i i i i1975! I ! i i i r "i— i i1980 1985 1990o-— i — i — i — i i i i1970 1975I I I I I1980i i i i i i1985 1990Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).Note: a. 1990 data are projected.Figure 4 Trends in Fertility, 1969-89(total fertility rate)6-5-4-3-2-7 — ___— OECD RICs - - China S India — Poor1970 1975 1980 1985 1990Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).Note: The total fertility rate is an estimate of the number of children that an averagewoman would have if current age-specific fertility rates remained constantduring her reproductive years.cates both the relative level of industrialization ofcountries or regions and their consumption of resources.Economic GrowthFor the past 20 years, gross national product (GNP)per capita has grown significantly in the OECD countriesand also (especially in percentage terms) in theRICs, and in low-income countries. (See Figure 1.)Nonetheless, the disparity in incomes between richand poor is increasing. In a world where informationand television images are widely communicated, suchSource: United Nations (U.N.) Energy Statistics Yearbook 1989 (U.N., NewYork, 1989) and previous volumes.a divergent trend is a source of contention and concern.Human DevelopmentThe trend to universal primary school enrollment overthe past 20 years has continued, with the RICs andChina and India joining the OECD countries. (See Figure2.) Low-income countries have made significantgains, but progress has plateaued in recent years.Under-five child mortality rates show a somewhat differentpicture. All countries have reduced child mortalityover the past 20 years, in some cases dramatically.(See Figure 3.) The OECD countries are now at verylow levels. The RICs, although still showing high childmortality rates, have made remarkable progress, ashas China. Low-income countries have made someprogress, as has India, but these countries still havevery high child mortality rates.Population GrowthA key demographic variable is fertility rate, which isthe number of children an average woman would bearduring her reproductive years. For most of the past 20years, fertility rates in OECD countries have been stableat nearly a replacement rate (about two births perwoman). (See Figure 4.) Fertility rates in the RICs havedeclined significantly, as have those in India and (especially)China. Fertility rates in low-income countriesare still very high and have declined only slightly overthe period.Energy UseFigure 5 reflects the enormous disparities in per capitaenergy consumption between the industrial OECDcountries and all other countries. Energy use is growingin the RICs and in India and China, but at a muchlower level. Low-income countries still use very littlecommercial energy.World Resources 1992-9315

2. Industrial Countries:Promoting Sustainable Growth in aGlobal EconomyTaken together, the 24 countries of the Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)represent an immense concentration of economic activity(l). In 1989, these industrialized countries had acombined gross national product (GNP) of $15 trillionand an average per capita income of $17,500 (2).The OECD countries also place a huge demand onthe natural resources of the planet and contribute avery large share of the global pollution burden. In1989, the seven largest OECD economies consumed 43percent of the world's production of fossil fuels, mostof the world's production of metals, and a large shareof other industrial materials and forest products. (SeeTable 2.1A.) On a per capita basis, the share of consumptionof the largest OECD economies is often severaltimes that of the world average. (See Table 2.1B.)In 1989, the OECD countries released approximately40 percent of global sulfur oxides emissions and 54 percentof nitrogen oxides emissions—the primarysources of acid precipitation (3). They generated 68 percentof the world's industrial waste as measured byweight (4) and accounted for 38 percent of the globalpotential warming impact on the atmosphere fromemissions of greenhouse gases (5). Yet the combinedpopulation of the OECD countries, 849 million, representsonly 16 percent of the world's population (6).A critical question is whether such patterns of production,consumption of natural resources, and pollutioncan be sustained in the future, as economicactivity increases. The OECD countries and their industrialeconomies are directly responsible for manykinds of environmental stress—local, regional, andglobal. In addition, because they not only are heavyconsumers of natural resources from developing countriesbut also tend to shift their pollution-intensive industriesto those countries, the OECD countries alsocontribute indirectly to environmental stresses in developingregions.DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTAs described in Chapter 1, sustainable development iseconomic development that does not degrade the qualityof the environment or the world's natural resourcebase and that "sustain[s] human progress not just in afew places for a few years" (7). The evidence is thatOECD countries—and the United States in particular—do not yet meet these criteria.World Resources 1992-9317

2 Industrial CountriesTable 2.1 Apparent Consumption of Selected Materials in the Largest OECD Economies {a}A. As Percentage of World ConsumptionEnergy (exajoules)Total fossil fuelsSolidsLiquidsGasYear ofData1989198919891989World Consumption283.797.0116.670.1Total43.435.550.243.3Canada2.51.22.93.7Germany4.56.03.93.2France1.90.82.91.6Italy2.20.63.42.2Japan4.83.47.12.7UnitedKingdom2.92.82.83.0UnitedStates24.820.627.126.8Source1111Metals (million metric tons)Crude steelAluminum, refinedCopper, refinedLead, refinedNickel, refinedTin, refinedZinc, slab1989199019901990199019901990794.517.910.85.50.80.27.039.958.057.655.258.652.745.91.82.31.71.61.41.31.85.67.79.58.111.19.47.62.24.04.44.65.33.64.13.53.64.44.73.22.73.911.713.514.67.518.915.211.72.22.52.95.43.94.52.712.924.219.923.214.816.014.22333333Industrial Materials (million metric tons)Cement1983-85Fertilizer1989/90938 {b}14327.826.30.61.54.2 {c}3.22.24.34.11.37.01.41.51.68.213.1Forest ProductsRoundwood (million cubicmeters)Paper and paperboard(million metric tons)198919893,47023025.264.65.12.71.36.21.13.60.42.92.411.90.24.214.733.14,5677B. Average Annual Consumption Per CapitaEnergy (gigajoules)Total fossil fuelsSolidsLiquidsGasYear ofData1989198919891989World54.7118.7122.4813.53Total190.3253.1390.2746.92Canada270.9544.65127.0699.25Germany160.9874.4157.7528.82France94.9814.4860.2420.26Italy106.5610.0169.3527.19Japan109.8026.9667.5115.33UnitedKingdom142.1147.9456.9737.20UnitedStates282.9380.15127.2175.57Source1111Metals (kilograms)Crude steelAluminum, refinedCopper, refinedLead, refinedNickel, refinedTin, refinedZinc, slab1989199019901990199019901990153.203.392.041.050.160.041.32489.0915.949.544.710.760.194.93529.7215.666.953.440.460.114.75563.0817.8313.295.791.210.286.85312.7712.778.464.510.790.155.03486.7111.328.244.480.470.114.69757.6419.5512.763.381.290.286.59304.007.895.525.250.570.183.29411.4417.248.545.130.500.153.952333333Industrial Materials (kilograms)Cement1983-85Fertilizer1989/90197.72 {b}27.63416.0658.18239.8682.67502.67 {c}58.39376.17108.67670.1131.52550.6615.74242.8541.22327.2375.21Forest ProductsRoundwood (cubic meters)Paper and paperboard(kilograms)198919890.6744.391.35229.616.71236.090.56181.620.70148.170.27116.050.68221.840.12168.152.04306.714,5677Sources:1. United Nations Statistical Office, U.N. Energy Tape (United Nations, New York, May 1991).2. International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), Steel Statistical Yearbook 1990(\\S\, Brussels, 1990), pp. 35-37.3. World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), World Metal Statistics (WBMS, Ware, U.K., 1991).4. United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Handbook of Industrial Statistics 1988 (UNIDO, Vienna, 1988), Table 13, pp. 455-458.5. U.S. Bureau of Mines (U.S. BOM), Minerals Yearbook, Vol. 1, Metals and Minerals {U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1988), pp. 221-222.6. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Fertilizer Yearbook 1990 (FAO, Rome, 1991), Table 1, p. 1, and Table 29, pp. 113-114.7. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Forest Products Yearbook 1989 (FAO, Rome, 1991), pp. 2-9 and 234-243.Notes:a. Apparent Consumption = production plus imports minus exports.b. World consumption assumed to be equal to world production.c. Consumption in Federal Republic of Germany plus production in German Democratic Republic.Totals may not add because of independent rounding.Despite some improvements, air and water pollutionand disposal of large quantities of waste remainserious problems in virtually all OECD countries. Industrialresidues—acidic materials, heavy metals, andtoxic chemicals—degrade soils, damage plants, and endangerfood supplies. On a per capita basis, the OECDcountries are overwhelmingly the world's major polluters,both within their own borders and in their contributionto global environmental degradation.Economic disparities have increased over the pastdecade within most OECD countries. (See Box 2.1.)Disparities between rich and poor countries are grow-18World Resources 1992-93

Industrial Countries 2Box 2.1 Poverty Amidst WealthProblems of poverty and human developmentworsened in industrialized countriesin the past decade, despite steadyeconomic growth between 1983 and 1990.In the past, economic growth had reducedpoverty. But in the 1980s, rapid technologicalchange and the increasing globalizationof trade and production introducedstructural changes in national economiesthat reduced job security, especially forlow-skill workers.According to a recent study of theUnited States, Canada, and several EuropeanCountries, poverty as measured relativeto median income levels increased inthe 1980s. As Figure 1 indicates, the percentageof low-income, working-agehouseholds (those with incomes less than50 percent of the national median incomeand with heads of households who are 20to 55 years old) increased during this periodin all but two of the countries studied.The United States experiencedsteadier growth and lower unemploymentthan most European countries in the1980s, yet the percentage of low-incomehouseholds was nearly double that of thecontinental European countries by middecade(D.In some cases, absolute poverty increased.For example, the mean income ofthe bottom 20 percent of U.S. families declinedfrom $10,176 in 1970 to $9,833 in1990. In this same period, the mean incomeof the top 5 percent rose from$116,555 to $148,124 (2).In aD countries, young people, singleparenthouseholds, and members of ethnicminorities were especially vulnerableto poverty (3). For example, the rate of povertywas at least three times higher for single-parentcompared with couple-headedhouseholds in West Germany and Canadain the mid-1980s (4).Governments have chosen a variety ofhuman development strategies to combatpoverty. To attack the problem of youthunemployment, France and Germany considerablyimproved the performance oftheir public school systems in the 1980s. Inaddition, the German government hasjoined with private business to create anapprenticeship program that integratesyoung people into the work force. Italyand France developed similar programs inthe 1980s. In contrast, the performance ofU.S. public schools declined over the pastdecade and the U.S. government devotedfew resources to helping students makethe school-to-work transition (5).Figure 1 Changes in Poverty Among Working-Age Heads ofHouseholds in Selected Countries During the 1980s(percent)15-10-5 —79'86iU.S.'81 ' 8?Canada'79'86U.K.'81l'84'83 .gyNetherlandsGermany(Fed Rep)i79 '84France'81'87iSwedenSource: Timothy Smeeding and Lee Rainwater, "Cross-National Trends in Income, Poverty and Dependency,"paper prepared for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, Washington, D.C., September1991, cited in Katherine McFate, Poverty, Inequality and the Crisis of Social Policy: Summary ofFindings (Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, Washington, D.C., 1991), p. 27.Note: Included are all heads of households 20 to 55 years old and with incomes less than 50 percent ofthe adjusted national median income after taxes and public assistance transfers.All the continental European systems investin child health and welfare by providingincome security to families with children,universal access to health care, andhigh-quality public day care for childrenof working mothers. Many provide parentalleave so mothers can return to workmore easily after childbearing (6).The effectiveness of income support programsvaries considerably among countries.The United Kingdom, West Germany,the Netherlands, France, and Swedenused their powers to tax and transferincome to lift anywhere from one third totwo thirds of poor households out of poverty.Canada moved only one fifth of poorhouseholds out of poverty; the UnitedStates did not lift any out of poverty (7).Although poverty is not as pressing aproblem in the OECD countries as in thedeveloping countries, declining livingstandards in the OECD countries have exacerbatedsocial tensions and focused attentionon domestic rather than internationalconcerns.References and Notes1. Katherine McFate, Poverty, Inequality andthe Crisis of Social Polio/: Summary of Findings0oint Center for Political and EconomicStudies, Washington, D.C., 1991),p.l.2. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports,Series P-650, No. 174 (U.S. GovernmentPrinting Office, Washington, D.C.,1991), Table B-5, p. 2202.3. Op. cit. 2, p. 6.4. Op. cit. 2, Figure 8, p. 32.5. Op. cit. 2, pp. 10-11 and 23.6. Op. cit. 2, p. 23.7. Op. cit. 2, Figure 3, p. 29.ing ever greater. (See "Introduction to Case Studies,"Figure 1.) Because rich countries tend to dominatetrade relationships, they bear some responsibility forthis widening gap. Virtually all OECD countries, forexample, have erected trade barriers against agriculturalproducts that deny developing countries accessto OECD markets. Yet with few exceptions, OECDcountries do not provide financial assistance to developingcountries even at the modest levels recommendedby the United Nations—0.7 percent of GNP (8).Chapter 1 also argues that the technological base ofindustrial societies must be transformed—replacedWorld Resources 1992-9319

2 Industrial CountriesFigure 2.1 Global Fossil Fuel Consumption,1950-89(exajoules)OECDNon-OECDwith cleaner, more resource-sparing technologies—ifsustainable development is to occur. Development ofimproved industrial technologies by OECD countriesand their rapid diffusion and deployment in othercountries through public and private mechanismscould play a critical role in sustainable development.The opportunities are wide-ranging. When coupledwith appropriate social and institutional changes, agriculturalinnovations could help feed growing populations,as they have in the past, and could reduce chemicalinputs to the environment. New forms of pest control,including neutralization of the tsetse fly, for example,might open large areas of Africa to food production.New energy technologies could greatly reducepollution from fossil fuels or provide renewablesources of energy well adapted to the needs of developingcountries. New vaccines and new informationtechnologies could improve health and expand educationalopportunities. Harnessed to the needs of sustainabledevelopment, technological innovation representsa hopeful investment in the future, a gift of knowledgeto ensure that future generations also have opportunitiesto meet their needs—albeit perhaps in differentways than at present. At the same time, new policiesthat encourage the adoption of new technologies arebadly needed.Sustainable development in industrial countries isnot a question of growth or no growth. Limits to economicgrowth, while they probably exist, are likely tobe very elastic and determined by the state of technologyand the forms of social organization. It is the kind,not the amount, of economic growth that is critical tosustainable development.This chapter considers new policies and technologiesthat—within the context of OECD countries—could reduce environmental degradation and promotemore sustainable economic development. The discussionfocuses on the United States because it is the largesteconomic unit within the OECD and, by some measures,the least efficient and most wasteful in its use ofnatural resources. Examples and comparisons aredrawn from other OECD countries as appropriate, andthe global consequences of actions by OECD countriesare considered.250-200-150-100-50-1950 1960 1970 1980 1989Sources:1. United Nations (U.N.), Energy Statistics Yearbook 1982 (U.N., New York,1984).2. United Nations (U.N.), Energy Statistics Yearbook 1989 (UN., New York,1991).ENERGY RESOURCESEnergy TransitionsUntil the middle of the 19th Century, humankind dependedlargely on renewable energy resources—human and animal power, supplemented by wood,wind, and water power. In 1850, wood supplied morethan 90 percent of energy in the United States. By theend of the century, the number of horses and mules onU.S. farms had grown to more than 20 million (9).But the energy demands of the newly industrializingcountries of the 19th Century could not be met by renewableresources with the technologies then available.The steam engines of the past century convertedat best a few percent of the energy in wood into usefulwork. The need to concentrate large amounts of energyin industrial furnaces and electric utility boilersset the stage for a transition from renewable energy resourcesto fossil fuels—first to coal, then to oil and naturalgas (10). By 1989, fossil fuels accounted for about95 percent of the world's commercial energy supply.(See Chapter 21, "Energy and Materials," Table 21.1.)As the world nears the end of the 20th Century, itfinds itself facing the beginnings of a third major transition,away from fossil fuels. The candidate replacementenergy technologies include those poweredultimately by the sun or by nuclear fission. Althoughscarcity would eventually force such a transition, thegrowing environmental consequences of burning fossilfuels may bring it sooner. In the United States, localair pollution has been held at bay by new control technologiesand ever-tighter regulations, but most majorurban areas still fail to meet national standards forozone levels (11). Worldwide, growing urban centersconcentrate energy use and the resultant pollution tosuch an extent—particularly where unfavorable geographyor weather patterns are a factor—that they areincreasingly hazardous places to live. Regional effectssuch as acid precipitation are damaging trees, soils,and lakes. Globally, use of fossil fuels is the largestsource of greenhouse gas emissions and thus a majorcontributor to the threat of climate change. (See Chapter13, "Atmosphere and Climate.")Since 1950, use of fossil fuels has more than quadrupled,with a substantial part of the increase occurringin OECD countries. (See Figure 2.1.) Even if consumptioncontinues to grow as industrial development occursin more countries, it may be possible to mitigatelocal and regional effects to some extent through vigoroususe of control technologies and regulations. Butcontinued significant increases of fossil-fuel-relatedcarbon dioxide emissions would enormously increase20World Resources 1992-93

Industrial Countries 2Figure 2.2 Manufacturing Energy Intensitiesfor Selected Countries, 1971-88Figure 2.3 Petrol Prices and Light-DutyVehicle Fleet Efficiencies, 1987(megajoules per 1980 US$)(liters/100 kilometers)40-— Scan-3 (a}United KingdomUnited StatesGermany— Japan- - France13 -\lUnited States^ \ / -.30-20-—-—.—11 -9 -Germany (Fed Rep) "\,v Unit ;d KingdomSweden\ NorwayFranc10-7\ . Italyo-1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987Source: Lee Schipper and Stephen Meyers, "Energy Efficiency and Human Activity: Past Trends, Future Prospects," draft, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory(University of California, Berkeley, October 1991).Note: a. Scan-3 = Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.the likelihood of devastating climate change. In contrast,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeestimated that a 60-80 percent reduction in carbon dioxideemissions from present levels would be requiredto stabilize atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide(12). Hence a transition from fossil fuels appears tobe urgently needed, a transition that must be led byOECD countries if it is to occur.Such a transition can take place only over manyyears. For the next 10-20 years, the most effective strategyfor reducing carbon dioxide emissions is to improvethe efficiency of energy production and use, astrategy that would help reduce other pollution problemsas well.Energy EfficiencyImproving energy efficiency does not mean doingwithout energy or economic growth. From 1973 to1988, the United States built 20 million new homes,put 50 million more vehicles on its roads, and increasedits GNP by 46 percent. Yet energy consumptionincreased only 7 percent. The economic benefits ofhigher energy efficiency were enormous: cumulativeenergy savings worth more than $1 trillion, in additionto the pollution avoided. According to the U.S. Departmentof Energy, these improvements were stimulatedin large measure by higher energy prices (13).A useful measuring stick for energy efficiency is theconcept of energy intensity, defined as energy consumptionper unit of gross domestic product, for specificeconomic sectors (14). By this measure, for example,the energy intensity of manufacturing, excludingstructural changes (i.e., by holding constant the 1973production mix), declined by 33 percent in the UnitedStates, 37 percent in Japan, and an average of 29 percentin six European countries between 1973 and 1987(15). For the same group of countries, improvements00.25 0.5 0.75 1($US/liter)Source: James J. MacKenzie, "Toward a Sustainable Energy Future: The CriticalRole of Rational Energy Pricing," in WRI Issues and Ideas (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., May 1991), p. 6.also occurred in the efficiency of energy use in thehome, as a result of more insulation and more efficientfurnaces and appliances, and in most other sectors (16).Only in transportation did energy intensity increase,as a result of more cars, more kilometers driven percar, and a higher percentage of travel in cars and airplanesinstead of buses and trains (17).The United States is still one of the least energy-efficientcountries in the OECD. Cars, appliances, andcommercial buildings in the United States use 20-33percent more energy per unit of activity, and U.S. industries10-25 percent more, than in most other industrialcountries. (See Figure 2.2.) The U.S. auto fleet, forexample, averaged 11 liters per 100 kilometers (21miles per U.S. gallon (mpg)) (18), compared with 9 litersper 100 kilometers (26 mpg) in Europe in 1990 (19).A primary reason for the more wasteful use of petrolin the United States is that the average price is extraordinarilylow by industrial world standards. In 1990,petrol prices hovered around $0.30 per liter in theUnited States. In other OECD countries they rangedfrom above $0.50 per liter in Germany to about $1 perliter in Italy (20). The fleet efficiencies of cars and lightvehicles show a similar distribution, ranging from theUnited States (least efficient) to Italy (most efficient).(See Figure 2.3.) Clearly, higher fuel prices and moreefficient energy use go hand in hand.In addition, U.S. residents travel well over twice asfar by car each year as Europeans and almost fourtimes as far as Japanese. Such high automobile use issometimes attributed to the greater geographical sizeof the United States. As Figure 2.4 shows, however,about 85 percent of all auto trips taken by U.S. residentsare within short distances of home. Indeed, fully97 percent of the kilometers traveled each year by U.S.residents in their cars are for trips of 18 kilometers orless (21). Lack of adequate public transportation systems,lower energy prices, and the urban sprawl of theWorld Resources 1992-9321

2 Industrial CountriesFigure 2.4 U.S. Motor Vehicle Trips byPurpose and Length, 1983-84Home-to-Work -Family BusinessVisit FriendsShoppingOtherWork RelatedCivic/ReligiousVacationsDoctor/DentistPleasure(percentage of travel)(length in kilometers)35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 40 80 120 160 200Source: James J. MacKenzie, "Toward a Sustainable Energy Future: The CriticalRole of Rational Energy Pricing," in WRI Issues and Ideas (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., May 1991), p. 8.past 40 years are larger factors in fuel use than theoverall size of the country (22).There is no lack of technological opportunity formore efficient energy use in the United States andother OECD countries. Several major automobile manufacturershave built prototypes that can achieveabout 3.8 liters per 100 kilometers (63 mpg) in city drivingand about 2.9 liters per 100 kilometers (81 mpg) onthe highway (23). With appropriate policies, automobilefleet efficiency could double, at least in the UnitedStates, and public transportation systems could greatlyexpand. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimatesthat a shift to new high-energy fluorescentlighting in commercial buildings could alone cut U.S.electricity demand 10 percent, save nearly $19 billionper year, and cut carbon dioxide emissions by 4 percentper year (24). Appliances and electric motors thatare significantly more efficient than those now in generaluse are available. A study by the Electric PowerResearch Institute for the utility industry concludedthat a shift to the most efficient electrical equipmentnow commercially available could save utility customersbetween 24 and 44 percent of U.S. electricity consumptionby the year 2000 (25). A new generation ofmore efficient technologies for generating electricity,including gas turbine combined-cycle systems and fuelcells, are also poised to enter commercial use (26). Whatis lacking are the energy policies and pricing signalsthat can realize these efficiencies—and with them, atleast temporary reductions in pollution levels and carbondioxide emissions.Renewable Energy ResourcesCleaner, more efficient energy technologies can significantlyreduce pollution and greenhouse warming contributionsfrom fossil fuels, particularly over the next20 years. Once these efficiencies are achieved, however,expanded energy use will again increase thegreenhouse burden. In the long run, renewable energyresources offer an alternative to fossil fuels. Nuclearpower offers another—albeit still controversial—option.The world is gradually shifting away from direct useof fuels to indirect consumption in the form of electricity(27). In 1989, over 41 percent of commercial globalenergy consumption was dedicated to electric powerproduction (28)—an increase from 28 percent in 1970and 16 percent in 1950 (29). The U.S. trend is similar—electric generation consumed 45 percent of primary energyin 1989 (30), up from 14 percent in 1950 (31). Thatalmost two thirds of the world's electricity (73 percentin the United States) is provided by power plants burningfossil fuels underscores the importance of controllingcarbon dioxide emissions from the electric powersector (32).The trend toward electrification of the global economyis perhaps fortunate, since some of the mostpromising future energy technologies are producers ofelectricity. The most attractive of these are the renewableenergy technologies of wind turbines, photovoltaiccells, hydropower plants, and high-temperaturesolar thermal collectors. Powered ultimately by thesun, none of these energy sources emits carbon dioxideor air pollutants, and their use would thus not contributeto air pollution or global warming, althoughlarge dams built to tap hydropower resources oftencause other environmental problems.Most of the renewable technologies, by nature of thediffuse resources on which they depend, require largecollection areas. Such a requirement may not in practicebe a major impediment. An analysis by the WorldResources Institute (WRI) showed that for the UnitedStates—the world's largest energy consumer—onlyabout 0.4 percent of the land area of the continentalUnited States would be needed to meet all U.S. energyneeds using photovoltaic cells (33). Such a step wouldbe uneconomical at present, but efficiencies are risingand prices have fallen drastically. In contrast, 21 percentof U.S. lands are devoted to cropland and 26 percentto pastures. (See Chapter 17, "Land Cover andSettlements," Table 17.1.) Many of the solar cells, moreover,could be placed on the walls and roofs of existingstructures.Some renewable technologies such as wind power,however, are already becoming economically competitive.The installation of commercial wind turbines isgrowing rapidly in the United States. The wind resourcein 12 midcontinent states alone could producemore than three times the 1987 U.S. electrical energyconsumption (34). The cost of electricity from wind machineshas been dropping because of improved designsand increased reliability. According to the CaliforniaEnergy Commission, wind turbines located at goodsites can now generate power at costs equal to or lowerthan the cost of power from either nuclear or coal-firedplants, if similar utility financing is made available (35).California supplies 1 percent of its electricity needsfrom wind power and plans to increase that share to10 percent over the next decade. Denmark supplies 1.5percent of its electricity needs from wind power and22World Resources 1992-93

Industrial Countries 2also plans to increase that share to 10 percent over thenext decade. In 1990, more than 12 countries had windenergy programs (36).The transportation sector poses a major challenge forrenewable energy technology. Carbon dioxide emissionsfrom motor vehicles worldwide have been growingby 3 percent per year from about 510 million metrictons of carbon in 1971 to more than 830 million metrictons of carbon in 1987 (37). Cars and trucks are alsothe major sources of the constituents that give rise tourban smog. Curbing these emissions will be extremelydifficult as long as most motor vehicles arepowered by petrol: growth in the number of vehiclesand miles traveled now overwhelms improvements infuel economy (38). Additional public transit systems—particularly those powered by electricity— offer onemeans of improvement.Electric vehicles are an attractive option for the future.In the next decade or two, if battery technologyimproves, they could fill an important niche as commutingand urban fleet vehicles. When charged atnight by clean, efficient power plants, such vehicleswould offer significant air pollution benefits; theywould also reduce carbon dioxide emissions, unlesscharged by electricity from a coal-fired power plant.Electric vehicles would mesh easily with the primarilyelectric, nonfossil energy sources that will be neededin the next century (39).Hydrogen vehicles are a promising longer term option.In addition to powering motor vehicles, hydrogencan be used as an airplane fuel and to supply energyto buildings. Burning hydrogen in internal combustionengines is virtually pollution free: no carbonmonoxide or carbon dioxide and only trace amountsof hydrocarbons (from the crankcase oil) and nitrogenoxides are produced. Hydrogen is, in principle, anearly ideal way to store the energy from intermittentrenewable technologies (such as wind turbines andphotovoltaic cells) or from nuclear power plants. Researchwill be needed, however, to lower costs and improvemeans of storage before hydrogen can become aviable option (40).Economic and Regulatory PoliciesA serious shortcoming of world energy markets, andof U.S. transportation markets in particular, is the failureto fully incorporate the environmental and socialcosts of energy use in energy prices. Fuel and electricityprices reflect pollution control costs but do not reflectthe billions of dollars worth of damage caused byenergy-related pollution (from drilling, mining, refining,oil spills, and combustion of energy), the risk ofglobal warming, and the threat to national security ofdependence on oil imports.Many policy proposals that seek to mitigate the environmentaldamage of fossil fuel combustion have focusedon regulatory measures. Examples include requirementsfor higher fleet vehicle efficiencies, minimumperformance standards for major appliances,and tighter codes for new buildings. These measuresare important for increasing efficiency and reducingoperating costs. But energy efficiency improvementsalone will not reduce fossil fuel consumption sufficientlyto significantly clean up urban pollution or tostabilize the climate, if only because of the human tendencyto use more of commodities, including energy,that are less expensive. More efficient technologiesalso lower the effective price of energy use. Improvementsin energy efficiency will buy time formore fundamental changes. But energy pricing reformswill be essential to reduce fossil fuel consumptionand to increase use of renewable energytechnologies.One frequently discussed option for energy price reformis sharply higher direct taxes on petrol. Anotheroption is a national tax on the carbon content of all fossilfuels. A carbon tax would fall most heavily on thosefuels, such as coal, that contribute the most carbon dioxideto the atmosphere and that are a major source ofother pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, and least heavilyon carbon-poor (and generally cleaner) fuels suchas natural gas.Energy taxes are frequently opposed on the groundsthat they would slow economic growth and be regressive.But energy price reform need not have that effect.Energy taxes could be economically neutral if the proceedswere used to reduce other taxes such as incomeor social security taxes, and might, by encouraging amore efficient economy, even be advantageous. Shiftingthe tax burden from "virtues"—such as labor, savings,and investment—to "ills"—such as the use ofpolluting fuels—makes use of market incentives tosteer economic growth into more sustainable patterns.Still another policy approach is to reduce demand.Utilities in some parts of the United States, with the encouragementof state utility commissions, are alreadyoffering their customers financial incentives to installhigh-efficiency appliances, lights, and cooling systems.These efforts, known as demand-side management,avoid the need to build additional generating capacityand reduce both energy costs and pollution.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST RESOURCESAlthough conversion of forests, wetlands, and desertsto agricultural land is not now a significant activity inmost OECD countries, that has not been the case in thepast. As recently as 1950-1970, for example, the UnitedStates cleared 1.3 million hectares of southwesternpinon-juniper woodlands to expand pastureland (41).Earlier in the century, an ambitious, government-subsidizedsystem of dams and canals was constructed to irrigatesome 6 million hectares of western drylands anddesert (42). Late in the 19th Century, more than 21 millionhectares of midwestern wetlands were drained toexpand cropland (43). Still earlier, in medieval timesand before, large areas of the once vast European forestswere cleared. The Mediterranean region, in particular,suffered almost complete degradation of naturalplant and animal communities (44). These changes aresimilar to land conversions now under way in manydeveloping countries.World Resources 1992-9323

2 Industrial CountriesEffects of Present PoliciesForestsA recent assessment found that careful managementhas restored the usefulness of many U.S. forests overthe past 100 years (45). Nonetheless, the United Statesis the largest producer of forest products in the worldand the second largest exporter of raw timber. (SeeChapter 19, "Forests and Range lands," Table 19.2.)From the point of view of sustainable development,however, these high rates of cutting have complex consequences,which are exemplified by a controversyover logging of old-growth forests in the U.S. PacificNorthwest. These forests contain many of the largesttree species in the world and are also the habitat for anendangered species, the spotted owl.Old-growth forests are stable ecosystems with treesof all ages. When such a forest is cut, it takes at least200 years for the large trees to regrow—far longer thancurrent logging cycles. Even so, harvesting on a 200-year cycle would not be sustainable, because the forestalso requires large fallen logs on the forest floor. Thetrees depend on fungi that live in their roots for theirnutrients. The fungi, in turn, depend on small rodentsthat live on the forest floor to distribute their sporesand help them reproduce and spread. The rodentsneed fallen logs for protection and as a source of moistureduring long, dry summers. Thus, harvesting cyclesmuch longer than 200 years would be required topreserve these old-growth forests as natural and stableecosystems (46).AgricultureAgricultural production, like any other economic activity,responds to market signals. When those signals aredistorted by subsidies, fixed prices, or protection fromcompetition, as is the case in virtually all OECD countries,the result is overproduction and high social andenvironmental costs. In the United States, direct fiscalcosts to taxpayers are approximately $12 billion peryear. Indirect costs of $5-$10 billion per year to U.S.consumers are added in the form of higher prices (47)(48). Still other indirect costs include soil depletion anderosion, contamination of underground and surfacewaters arising from the overuse of agricultural chemicals,and loss of wildlife habitat.Similar fiscal and environmental costs are borne bythe citizens of Japan and Western Europe, where governmentssubsidize agriculture even more substantiallythan in the United States. Agricultural subsidies(direct and indirect) in the world's industrial economieshave been estimated at $150 billion annually (49).The impact of such policies extends beyond nationalborders. By limiting imports of many agricultural commoditiesgrown in developing countries and producingsurpluses that, when exported, drive down prices,the agricultural policies of most OECD countries deprivefood-exporting developing countries of markets.Such policies undercut efforts to improve the livelihoodsof developing world farmers, who make up thevast majority of the world's poor.Unsustainable PracticesMany farm practices, by reducing soil fertility or causingexcessive soil loss, significantly lower the true incometo the farmer. Examples include excessive use ofherbicides and pesticides that kill off soil microbes, repeatedplanting of crops that deplete soil nutrients,and high-tillage systems that add to erosion. Such practicesdegrade the farm's resource base, wasting its soil"capital" and thus reducing its future income-producingpotential. The costs of soil loss in lower farm productivityare often temporarily masked by rapid technologicalchange and increasing use of inputs. Eventually,however, farmers who degrade their soil will impoverishthemselves. From an environmental perspective,such resource-degrading practices are both unsustainableand unwise in a world facing at least a twofoldincrease in the number of mouths to feed.Soil-eroding and chemically intensive practices canhave a more immediate environmental impact off thefarm. In the United States, more than half of the suspendedsediment and nutrient pollution of freshwatercomes from agriculture (50). Annual damage to hydrologicalresources in the United States from farmland isestimated at $3.5 billion per year (51). Additional, unquantifieddamages include poisoning of wildlife, contaminationof groundwater, and health effects frompesticide residues in food.Existing farm policies in the United States discouragefarmers from shifting to resource-conserving practices.Some farmers have nonetheless experimentedwith alternatives to conventional, chemically intensivepractices. A detailed comparative analysis of conventionaland resource-conserving practices under two differentsets of conditions showed that alternative productionsystems can compete economically. In Pennsylvania,where shallow soils and hillside fields giverise to relatively high on-farm and off-farm environmentalcosts, organic farming rotations are clearly superiorto conventional practices—agronomically, environmentally,and economically. In Nebraska, wherethick topsoil and flat fields limit on-farm and off-farmenvironmental damage, resource-conserving practiceswere still found to be environmentally superior andeconomically competitive (52).Needed Policy ReformA shift to farm policies that encourage rather than discourageresource-conserving practices would reducethe resource costs of farming, raise agricultural productivity,and lower the burden of farm subsidies. Likewise,a move to freer trade in agricultural commoditieswould not only lower subsidy costs but also providefood-exporting developing countries with greater accessto markets for their products. Farmers should notbe exempt from the "polluter pays" principle. If tax orother incentives that force producers to absorb thecosts of the off-farm damage they cause were put inplace, agriculture would come to rely more onresource-conserving methods of fertilization and pestmanagement. Sustainable agricultural practices, theirpromise, and the policies needed for their widespread24World Resources 1992-93

Industrial Countries 2realization are discussed in more detail in Chapter 7,"Food and Agriculture."WASTE, POLLUTION, AND SUSTAINABLETECHNOLOGIESCleanup StrategiesOver the past several decades, most OECD countrieshave adopted environmental strategies designed tocontrol a growing number of specific pollutants. Theconcerns behind these actions have expanded to encompassnot only direct, local contamination of air,water, and land but also indirect and regional effectssuch as the damage to forests from acid precipitation,the overfertilization of estuaries and regional seas, andthe growing shortage of toxic and solid waste disposalsites. Environmental strategies, expressed in legislationand regulations, have had tangible effects, reducingemissions of some targeted pollutants into theenvironment. The quality of the air and the water inmany communities has improved. But overall, thesepollution control efforts have resulted in little morethan a holding action. New pollutants and new threatsto the environment have emerged, from local concernsover toxic emissions to global problems such as stratosphericozone depletion and climate change.The environmental strategies adopted by OECDcountries to date have been for the most part "end-ofthe-pipe"controls designed to contain or neutralizepollutants and hazardous waste already created. Thesestrategies have been expensive: in the United States,for example, estimates are that public and private expendituresfor pollution control now amount to justover 2 percent of the GNP, or over $115 billion annually,and are likely to rise significantly (53). Comparativelyless attention has been given to altering theindustrial, agricultural, and consumer technologiesand practices that give rise to waste and pollutants inthe first place.Widely replicated, present technology and practiceswould choke the world in waste and pollutants:OECD countries now release to the atmosphere 76.5million metric tons of the substances that cause acidrain (54), produce 1,430 million metric tons of industrialwaste every year (55) and generate 2.3 billion metrictons of carbon dioxide or its equivalent in othergreenhouse gases. A significant increase in thesewastes and emissions as non-OECD economies expandwould severely exacerbate waste disposal andhealth problems in urban areas, increase pollutiondamage to crops and forests, and increase the potentialfor global warming. Clearly, continued increases inwastes and emissions cannot be sustained indefinitely.Fundamental changes in technology—and in thestructure of economic activity—are the only realisticstrategies. Fortunately, technology is not static, butrather changes continually. A recent analysis by WRIfound a "uniquely rich" climate for more sustainableenergy, agricultural, and manufacturing approachesfrom both existing and emerging technologies (56). Thepolicies that influence technology development anduse in the United States, Japan, and the European Communityhave global implications because technologicalinnovation is concentrated in the OECD countries andtheir technologies are often eventually deployedworldwide.More Efficient ManufacturingFrom an environmental point of view, preventingwaste or the creation of pollutants in the first place isbest. When some waste is inevitable, it should be minimized.Next, waste or by-products should be reusedor recycled, at the factory level or at the consumerlevel. Only after all such measures have been exploitedshould waste treatment and disposal—the traditionalend-of-the-pipe approach—be considered.Many industrial companies have found that pollutionprevention costs less if it is designed into the productor system from the start. Companies such as MinnesotaMining & Manufacturing Company (3M), with its"Pollution Prevention Pays" program, report that theyhave been able to reduce costs and pollution simultaneouslyby introducing improved technology or byusing resources more efficiently. The potential forwaste prevention or reduction is enormous. The U.S.Office of Technology Assessment estimated that manyU.S. industries could eliminate 50 percent of their hazardouswaste with available technology (57).A few companies, particularly major chemical companies,have already set sweeping environmental strategiesand targets for reduction of waste and toxic emissions,often far in excess of regulatory requirements.Monsanto Company, for example, has pledged to reducetoxic air emissions by 90 percent by 1992 and towork toward zero emissions (58). Moreover, major internationalcompanies are increasingly attempting toapply environmental strategies in every country inwhich they operate, irrespective of the differences in orlack of regulations and enforcement among them (59).One incentive for companies to adopt such strategies,even when the costs exceed the immediate savings,is the growing requirement for full disclosure,particularly in the United States (60). No company likesto publish the fact that it releases millions of pounds oftoxic waste to the environment, nor do such disclosureshelp to recruit new employees, sell products, orget permits for new plants.A second incentive is the fear of costly legal liabilityfor spills and waste dumps and even criminal penaltiesthat, at least in the United States, can send managersto jail. Even without lawsuits, waste disposalcosts are rising rapidly in most OECD countries, inpart because no one wants a landfill or an incineratorin their neighborhood (61).An additional motivation for many companies is theperception that it pays to prepare now for the transitionto sustainability, because laws embodyingtougher environmental regulations or taxes based onthe "polluter pays" concept are inevitable. The directorof the Swedish engineering company Flakt AB madean apt comparison at a 1990 conference on sustainabledevelopment that bears on the question of inevitabil-World Resources 1992-9325

2 Industrial CountriesTable 2.2 Climate Change Action Program for the 21st CenturyYearBy 2000By 2010By 2020By 2030By 2040ProgramWorld Energy ConservationAccelerated Introduction of Clean EnergyDevelopment of Environment-Friendly TechnologyExpanding Carbon Dioxide SinksAdvanced Nonfossil Fuel Energy TechnologiesActionsIntensified research on climate change. Accelerated energy conservation.Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) phased out.Reduction in use of fossil fuels. Increased use of nuclear power. Increaseduse of new or renewable energy sources.Spread of third-generation CFC substitutes.Net gains from reforestation. Desertification reversed through biotechnology.Enhanced oceanic sinks.Introduction of such new energy technologies as fusion, orbiting solarpower plants, magma electricity generation, and energy applications ofsuper-conductivity technology.Source: Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry, "The New Earth 21 '--Action Program for the Twenty-First Century," paper presented at the U.S.-Japan Conference on Global Warming, Atlanta, June 3,1991.ity: "We treat nature like we treated workers a hundredyears ago. We included then no cost for thehealth and social security of workers in our calculations,and today we include no cost for the health andsecurity of nature" (62).At the level of the individual company, reducing pollutionat its source is simply one aspect of creating amore efficient manufacturing process, which hasbroader competitive advantages for a company. Competitivepressures, largely from very efficient Japanesecompanies, are now leading to rapid changes in manufacturingsystems. A recent study by the MassachusettsInstitute of Technology, focused on the auto industry,found that the "lean manufacturing" system introducedby Toyota and now spreading into manycompanies is creating a virtual revolution in howthings are made—reducing labor, waste, manufacturingdefects, and the time required to bring new productsto market (63). These new technologies—and themanagement techniques and corporate attitudes theyrequire—can also be harnessed to serve the goal of sustainability.Encouraging worker-led continuous incrementalimprovements in manufacturing processestoward a goal of "zero emissions," for example, wouldwork as well as it has for a goal of "zero defects."At the level of national governments, there is a needto develop comprehensive energy and environmentalpolicies that provide industry with clear signals toguide their investment. One example of such a strategyis that proposed by Japan's Ministry of InternationalTrade and Industry for dealing with greenhousegases (64). The plan gives a 50-year timetable for the developmentand deployment of specific technologies,decade by decade. (See Table 2.2.)Emerging TechnologiesIn 1991, the U.S. Government issued a list of technologiesjudged to be critical for economic competitiveness(65). Separately, so did an industry council (66), whoselist was very similar. Significantly, both lists includemany technologies of interest to environmentalists,and point out that efficiency, economic productivity,and improvements in product quality can go hand-inhandwith superior environmental performance. Considerthree examples from a recent WRI study (67):Biotechnology, still in its commercial infancy, could fuel anew and environmentally sounder "green revolution," freeingfarming from heavy dependence on agrichemicals. Althoughwidely recognized for their pharmaceutical potential,biological tools are also likely to profoundly affect a wide varietyof industrial activities. Enzymes used as industrial catalysts,microbial recovery of metals (biohydrometallurgy),waste degradation, and biomass fuels and feedstocks are buta few examples. These applications could lower the energyandpollution-intensity of production, while decreasing dependenceon fossil fuels. Like other new technologies, biotechnologymay not represent an unequivocal environmentalgain. Fears that poorly designed or poorly understood geneticallyengineered organisms might become pests—a self-replicatingenvironmental hazard—once released into theenvironment are reinforced by limits to our understandingof ecology.Materials technology, equally dynamic, shows even moreimmediate application. Products based on specially engineeredmaterials probably now constitute more than onethird of United States GNP—over $1 trillion yearly. Becausecomposite materials typically perform better than conventionalmaterials per unit of weight, they require less rawmaterial and produce less waste. Perhaps most important,materials design has become so highly sophisticated that engineerscan now incorporate environmental criteria ratherthan deal with them as an afterthought. Here too, though,potential environmental drawbacks need consideration.Composites and other specially engineered materials areusually very difficult to recycle and may use more toxicsubstances.The term "information technology"—encompassing developmentsas diverse as real-time monitoring of effluentstreams, computer-controlled manufacturing, software development,and chemical and biological sensors—undoubtedlycovers the broadest range of potentially important newtechnologies. All these technologies could have an enormousimpact on pollution prevention and control. The applicationof computers to manufacturing systems not only greatly increasestheir efficiency and flexibility but also makes possiblereal-time monitoring of reaction conditions and effluentstreams. When coupled with sensors that recognize changesin such conditions, automated processes can both preventpollution and use input materials and energy more efficiently.World Resources 1992-9326

Industrial Countries 2As these examples and others make clear, technologyis not the limiting factor. What are needed are policiesto enable and speed technological developmentand to ensure its emergence in the marketplace in sustainable,environmentally friendly forms. Also neededare more research and development on environmentallysound technologies, renewed management attentionto the actual environmental behavior of firms, andan emphasis on making environmental concerns centralto the education of future managers and engineers.A GLOBAL CONTEXTAlthough there is dispute about the extent and timingof climate change caused by emissions of greenhousegases such as carbon dioxide, there is little doubt thatcontinued emissions will eventually have significantconsequences. Eventually, then, serious cuts in consumptionof fossil fuels are likely to be necessary. TheOECD countries have historically contributed disproportionatelyto global pollution and continue to doso. Therefore, to stabilize atmospheric concentrationsof carbon dioxide, OECD countries may have to reduceemissions not only to cover their share of the necessaryreduction in current emissions but also to allowfor growth in developing countries that, on a per capitabasis, emit far less.Similar arguments apply to virtually all industrial activitiesthat consume natural resources or produce pollution.There are indications that consumption of nonrenewablenatural resources is beginning to plateau inthe more advanced economies (see Figure 2.1), but continuationof this trend is far from certain. The OECDcountries can reduce consumption of these resourcesby increasing recycling and reuse of such materials asmetals and by encouraging transitions to less materialintensivetechnologies to reduce their consumption.Because OECD consumption levels are so high, theimpact of consumption choices can have a profoundand sometimes destructive impact on natural resourcesin developing countries, inflating demand beyondwhat can be supplied on a sustainable basis. For example,in the United States, a fashion for parrots andother tropical birds as pets has put pressure on thebirds' wild populations in several countries. And continuingdemand for tropical hardwoods in industrialcountries, especially Japan, has led to extensive andoften destructive cutting of forests in Southeast Asia.Non-OECD countries urgently need to expand theireconomic activity. Because most of these countries areor hope to be in the process of building an industrialbase and a modern infrastructure, their consumptionof energy and natural resources will have to increase(68). If such expansion extends OECD-style consumptionand pollution patterns across a much wider populationbase and increases these impacts in proportionto the fourfold or fivefold expansion in economic activityexpected by the middle of the next century, the environmentalimpact could be devastating. A $50 trillioneconomy based on the technologies now in placewould consume staggering amounts of natural resourcesand generate waste and pollution in unprecedentedquantities (69).A transition to more efficient, more sustainable technologiesmust occur first in the OECD countries,which have the scientific and technological base for innovationand the wealth to make the necessary investments.But more efficient technologies must also bespread rapidly to developing countries. OECD countrieshave an obligation to increase financial supportand technical assistance in support of such technologytransfers.In addition, OECD countries need to take action tocurb exports to developing countries of hazardous materialsand unsafe technologies that are no longer allowedto be sold within the OECD. Individual multinationalcompanies should be encouraged to apply thesame emission and safety standards to plants operatingin developing countries as in OECD countries,even in the absence of regulatory enforcement.CONCLUSIONThe United States could markedly improve its efficiencyin using energy and other natural resourcesand, at the same time, reduce local and regional pollution,avoid waste, and lower its contribution to thethreat of global warming. With appropriate, marketbasedpolicies, including price reforms and enlightenedregulatory measures, these steps need not carryheavy economic penalties and could indeed improvethe country's economic competitiveness. To a large degree,similar steps could be taken, with equal benefit,in other OECD countries.Many promising new technologies exist that areboth more efficient and more sustainable. These technologiescharacteristically enhance both economicgrowth and environmental improvement. The UnitedStates and other OECD countries will need to move towardsuch technologies, and toward policies that encouragetheir development and use, to improve not only theirown destinies but also those of other countries.This chapter is based on initial drafts prepared by Allen Hammondand James MacKenzie of the World Resources Institute, but includescontributions by many senior WRI staff members.References and Notes1. The OECD member countries are Australia,Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland,France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland,Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,New Zealand, Norway, Portugal,Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, theUnited Kingdom, and the United States.2. Chapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators,"Table 15.1, and Chapter 16, "Population andHuman Development," Table 16.1.3. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), The State of theEnvironment (OECD, Paris, 1991), p. 34.4. Ibid., p. 146.5. Calculation of greenhouse gases globalwarming potential is based on the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC)parameters for integrated heating valuesover a 100-year period. See Chapter 13, "At-World Resources 1992-9327

2 Industrial Countriesmosphere and Climate," Table 13.4, for furtherdiscussion.6. Chapter 16, "Population and Human Development,"Table 16.1.7. The World Commission on Environmentand Development, Our Common Future (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1987), p. 4.8. United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report 1991 (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1991), p. 53.9. Chauncey Starr, "Energy and Power," in Energyand Power: A Scientific American Book(W.H. Freeman and Company, San Francisco,1971), pp. 5-7.10. Ibid.,p.7.11. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA), National Air Quality and EmissionsTrends Report, 1989 (U.S. EPA, Washington,D.C., 1991), pp. 3-26.12. Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, Climate Change: The IPCC ScientificAssessment, J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, andJJ. Ephraums, eds. (Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, U.K., 1990), p. 5.13. U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), EnergyConservation Trends: Understanding theFactors that Affect Conservation Gains in theU.S. Economy (U.S. DOE, Washington, D.C.,1989), pp. 2,3, and 5.14. Lee Scrapper, "Improved Energy Efficiencyin the Industrialized Countries: PastAchievements, CO2 Emission Prospects,"Energy Policy, Vol. 19, No. 3 (1991), p. 127.15. Ibid., p. 129.16. Ibid., pp. 130-132.17. Ibid., p. 127.18. Energy Information Agency of the U.S. Departmentof Energy (DOE), Monthly EnergyReview: October 1991 (DOE, Washington,D.C., 1991), p. 15.19. Op. cit. 14, p. 129.20. International Energy Agency of the Organisationfor Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD), Energy Prices andTaxes: Fourth Quarter 1990 (OECD, Paris,1991), p. 297.21. Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Associationof the United States, Inc. (MVMA), MVMAMotor Vehicle Facts and Figures '90 (MVMA,Detroit, 1990), p. 49.22. James J. MacKenzie, "Toward a SustainableEnergy Future: The Critical Role of RationalEnergy Pricing," in WRI Issues and Ideas(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., May 1991), p. 8.23. Deborah L. Bleviss, The New Oil Crisis andFuel Economy Technologies: Preparing the LightTransportation Industry for the 1990s (QuorumBooks, Westport, Connecticut, 1988), p.102.24. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA), "Green Lights: A Bright Investmentin the Environment" (U.S. EPA, Washington,D.C., 1991), p. 1.25. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), EfficientElectricity Use: Estimates of MaximumEnergy Savings (EPRI, Palo Alto, California,1990), pp. 1-3.26. World Resources Institute in collaborationwith the United Nations Environment Programmeand the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, World Resources 1990-91(Oxford University Press, New York, 1990)pp. 206-207.27. Energy consumption figures in this paragraphare calculated on the basis of conventionalfuel equivalents, such that primaryelectricity is valued on a fossil-fuel-avoidedbasis rather than an energy-output basis.See Chapter 21, "Energy and Materials" andaccompanying note to Table 21.2 for furtherexplanation.28. United Nations (U.N.), 1989 Energy StatisticsYearbook (U.N., New York, 1991), Table 4,p. 90, and Table 34, p. 386.29. United Nations (U.N.), 1982 Energy StatisticsYearbook (U.N., New York, 1984), Table 4,p. 144 and Table 39, p. 684.30. Op. cit. 28, Table 4, p. 96, and Table 34,p. 398.31. Op. cit. 29, Table 4, p. 155, and Table 39,p. 695.32. Op. cit. 28, Table 34, pp. 386 and 398.33. James J. MacKenzie, Senior Associate,World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1991 (personal communication).34. D.L. Elliot, L.L. Wendell, and G.L. Gower,"U.S. Areal Wind Resource Estimates ConsideringEnvironmental and Land-use Exclusions,"paper presented at the AmericanWind Energy Association Windpower '90Conference, Washington, D.C., September1990.35. Sam Rashkin et ah, Energy Technology StatusReport, Final Report (California Energy Commission,Sacramento, California, 1991),Table 4, p. 73.36. Alexi Clark, "Wind Energy: Progress andPotential," Energy Policy, Vol. 19, No. 3(1991), pp. 742-743.37. James J. MacKenzie and Michael P. Walsh,Driving Forces: Motor Vehicle Trends and TheirImplications for Global Warming, Energy Strategies,and Transportation Planning (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C.,December 1990), p. 17.38. Ibid., pp. 33-34.39. Ibid., pp. 41-42.40. Joan M. Ogden and Robert H. Williams,Solar Hydrogen: Moving Beyond Fossil Fuels(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1989), pp. 1-3.41. John F. Richards, "Global Patterns of LandConversion," Environment, Vol. 26 No. 9(1984), p. 11.42. Ibid., p. 13.43. Ibid., p. 12.44. Robert L. Peters and Thomas E. Lovejoy,"Terrestrial Fauna," in The Earth As Transformedby Human Action: Global and RegionalChanges in the Biosphere over the Past 300Years, B.L. Turner, William C. Clark, RobertW. Kates et ah, eds. (Cambridge UniversityPress with Clark University, New York,1990), pp. 362-363.45. Resources for the Future, America's RenewableResources, Kenneth D. Frederick andRoger A. Sedjo, eds. (Resources for the Future,Washington, D.C., 1991), pp. 7-9.46. Gordon H. Orians, "Ecological Concepts ofSustainability," Environment, Vol. 32, No. 9(1990), pp. 11-39.47. Paul Faeth, Robert Repetto, Kim Kroll et ah,Paying the Farm Bill: U.S. Agricultural Policyand the Transition to Sustainable Agriculture(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1991), p. 1.48. A. Barry Carr, William H. Meyers, Tim T.Phipps et ah, Decoupling Farm Programs (Resourcesfor the Future, Washington, D.C.,1988), Table 1, p. 3.49. Ibid., pp. 2-3.50. National Research Council, Alternative Agriculture(National Academy Press, Washington,D.C., 1989), pp. 98-99.51. Richard A. Smith, Richard B. Alexander,and M. Gordon Wolman, "Water- QualityTrends in the Nation's Rivers," Science, Vol.235, No. 4796 (1987), pp. 1611-1612.52. Op.cit.47,p.XI.53. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA), Environmental Investments: The Cost ofa Clean Environment (U.S. EPA, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. 2.54. Op. cit. 3, p. 33.55. Op. cit. 3, p. 146.56. George Heaton, Robert Repetto, and RodneySobin, Transforming Technology: AnAgenda for Environmentally SustainableGrowth in the 21st Century (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1991), pp. 5-7.57. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment(OTA), Serious Reduction of HazardousWaste: For Pollution Prevention and IndustrialEfficiency (U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C., 1986), p. 106.58. Frances Cairncross, "Cleaning Up: A Surveyof Industry and the Environment," The Economist(September 6,1990), p. 6.59. International Chamber of Commerce (ICC),The Business Charter for Sustainable Development(ICC, Paris, 1990) n.p.60. U.S. Senate, Committee on Environmentand Public Works, "Title III— EmergencyPlanning and Community Right to Know,"in Superfund Amendments and ReauthorizationAct of 1986 (P.L. 99-499) (U.S. GovernmentPrinting Office, Washington, D.C., 1987),pp. 169-201.61. Op. cit. 58, p. 10.62. Op. cit. 58, p. 4.63. James B. Womack, Daniel T. Jones, and DanielRoos, The Machine That Changed the World(Rawson Associates, MacMillan PublishingCompany, New York, 1990), pp. 71-222,64. Japanese Ministry of International Tradeand Industry, "'The New Earth 21'—ActionProgram for the Twenty-first Century,"paper presented at the U.S.-Japan Conferenceon Global Warming, Atlanta, June 3,1991, pp. 1-4.65. National Critical Technologies Panel, Reportof the Critical Technologies Panel (U.S. GovernmentPrinting Office, Washington, D.C.,March 1991), pp. 1-118.66. Council on Competitiveness, Gaining NewGround: Technology Priorities for America's Future(Council on Competitiveness, Washington,D.C., 1991), pp. 23-29.67. Op. cit. 56, pp. 14-15.68. Amulya K.N. Reddy and Jose Goldemberg,"Energy for the Developing World," ScientificAmerican, Vol. 263, No. 3 (1990), pp. 62-65.69. Op. cit. 7, pp. 4-5.28World Resources 1992-93

3. Poor Countries:Breaking the Cycle of Poverty, EnvironmentalDegradation, and Human DeprivationThe World Bank identifies low-income countries asthose having an average annual per capita gross nationalproduct (GNP) of less than $580 in 1989 (l).Among the 41 countries meeting this criterion, a dozenhave an average per capita GNP of less than $250 (2).These 41 low-income countries are the primary focusof this chapter.Per capita GNP is one measure of development butby no means the only appropriate one. According tothe United Nations Development Programme(UNDP), the quality of life as measured by longevityand literacy is also of critical importance in the developmentprocess. In 1990, the UNDP proposed a newmeasure—the Human Development Index (HDD—that considers these factors in addition to per capitaGNP. The UNDP finds some 63 low-human-developmentcountries, including most of the low-incomecountries and 25 other countries whose per capitaGNP puts them above the low-income line (3) (4). These25 additional countries are also included in the focusof this chapter because although they may not be poorin terms of per capita GNP, they are poor in the qualityof life they provide their citizens. Thus, these countriesface many of the same problems as low-incomecountries. (For convenience, low-income countriesserve as the basis for the statistics reported here, unlessotherwise identified. Because China and India differfrom other low-income countries in a number of respects—includingtheir size, degree of development ofhuman resources, and possession of significant industrialsectors—data are sometimes presented separatelyfor China and India.)The low-income countries are congregated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, but include Haiti inthe Americas and several countries in East and SoutheastAsia (5). Low-human-development countries includeadditional countries in North and sub-SaharanAfrica, South and Central America, and the MiddleEast.For the poor countries, the challenge of sustainabledevelopment is different from that facing more moderneconomies, but no less urgent. They face the needto provide for basic human necessities, stabilize populations,and stimulate the economic development thatcan alleviate poverty, all while conserving natural resourcesessential to economic growth.Poor countries are often those with the lowest levelsof education, the poorest health, the least access to safeWorld Resources 1992-9329

3 Poor Countrieswater and sanitation, and the most impoverished naturalresource base. Almost half (44 percent) of the aggregatepopulation of the low-income countries is illiterate(51 percent if China and India are excluded), andin some of these countries three quarters or more ofthe people are unable to read and write. The low-incomecountries combined have an average life expectancyof 62 years (55 if China and India are excluded);high-income countries have average life expectanciesof 76 or more years. The infant mortality rate is 70deaths per 1,000 live births (94 if China and India areexcluded), compared with 8 deaths per 1,000 livebirths for the industrial countries (6).The low-income countries contain most of theworld's poor people, but not all. Throughout theworld, according to the World Bank, more than 1.1 billionpeople live in poverty, and, of those, 630 millionare "extremely poor," having an average annual per capitaincome of less than $275 (7). Other estimates putthe number of poor at nearly 2 billion of the world's5.3 billion people (8). There are also about 1 billionadults unable to read and write, over 1.5 billion peoplewithout safe drinking water (9), about 100 million peoplewho are completely homeless, 1 billion people sufferingfrom hunger (10), 150 million children under agefive (one in three) who are malnourished, and 12.9 millionchildren each year who die before their fifth birthday.(See Chapter 6, "Population and Human Development.")Not just the poor countries that are thefocus of this chapter but also poor populations inevery country would benefit from strategies aimed directlyat attacking poverty and deprivation while protectingthe natural resource base on which thosepopulations often depend.The poor countries encompass an enormous rangeof conditions and a vast share of humanity. Cultural,religious, and ethnic preferences and conflicts play amajor role in many societies: often the poor are setapart by such differences. Thus, development strategiesmust take such factors into account. Governmentsare sometimes part of the problem, not part of the solutionto development needs, so that "empowerment" ofpoor people—and their direct and active involvementin planning and managing projects that affect them—is essential if development is to succeed. (See Chapter14, "Policies and Institutions.") Because every countryis different, the policies discussed in this chapter cannotdo justice to the diversity of conditions and needsamong poor countries. The intent is rather to illustratewhat sustainable development might mean in poorcountries and to suggest, through specific examples,the range of opportunities for action.POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTALDEGRADATIONThe evidence of human poverty and deprivation in theworld is unmistakable, as is the evidence of the worseningenvironmental conditions caused by and contributingto poverty. In poor countries, sustainabledevelopment means first and foremost addressingthese intertwined problems. That in turn means progressalong each of the dimensions outlined in Chapter1: economic development to provide jobs and alleviatepoverty; investments in human development to stabilizepopulations and enable people to improve theirwell-being and their livelihoods; protection for naturalresources, in large part by providing poor and landlesspeoples with alternatives to the overexploitation ofmarginal lands; and support for improved practicesand technologies that are appropriate and efficient inlocal contexts.Many of the poor countries are experiencing rapidpopulation growth. Sub-Saharan Africa as a wholehad an average annual population growth rate of 3percent between 1985 and 1990, with some countries—Cote d'lvoire, Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,and Zambia—having rates considerably higher. (SeeChapter 16, "Population and Human Development,"Table 16.1.)In many poor countries, rapid population growth,agricultural modernization, and inequalities in landtenure are creating increasingly large populations withlittle or no access to productive land. Without jobs andwithout productive land, poor people are forced ontomarginal lands in search of subsistence food productionand fuelwood, or they move to the cities. Thosewho stay on the land are forced to graze livestockherds where vegetation is sparse or soils and shrubsare easily damaged and to create agricultural plots onarid or semiarid lands, on hillsides, in tropical forests,or in other ecologically sensitive areas. It has been estimatedthat 60 percent of the developing world's poorestpeople live in areas that are ecologically vulnerable(11). As more and more people exploit open-access resourcesin an often desperate struggle to provide forthemselves and their families, they further degradetheir environment (12).The toll on natural resources takes many forms, includingsoil erosion, loss of soil fertility, desertification,deforestation, depleted game and fish stocksfrom overhunting and overfishing, loss of natural habitatsand of species, depletion of groundwater resources,and pollution of rivers and other water bodies.The result is to reduce the carrying capacity and productivityof the land and its biological resources. Thisdegradation further exacerbates poverty and threatensnot only the economic prospects of future generations,but also the livelihoods, health, and well-being of currentpopulations.It is in the rural areas that poverty and environmentaldegradation come together most acutely. Most ofthe low-income countries are still primarily rural; insub-Saharan Africa, 69 percent of the population livesin rural areas; and in South Asia, 74 percent. (See Figure3.1.) By far, the greatest proportion—in someplaces as many as 80-90 percent—of the poor live inrural areas, depending on agriculture and related activitiesfor their daily subsistence. Even in highly urbanizedLatin America, 60 percent of the poorest peoplereside in rural areas (13). Because urban populationsare growing rapidly, however—at an annual rate of 630World Resources 1992-93

Poor Countries 3Figure 3.1 Rural Populations as aPercentage of Total, 1989(percent)80-60-40-20-Africa, Low Income Asia, Low Income China and IndiaSource: United Nations (U.N.), U.N. Population Division, World PopulationProspects 1990 (U.N., New York, 1991).percent in sub-Saharan Africa and 4 percent in SouthAsia—urban poverty and urban environmental problemswill be increasingly important in the future (14).A contributing factor to poverty and environmentaldegradation is that rural areas lag behind urban areasin human development terms, with rural infant mortalityin some countries 30-50 percent higher, and ruralmalnutrition in one study an average of 50 percenthigher (15). In every society, the poor live shorter, lesshealthy lives than those who are better off financially.For example, in Colombia, infants from poor familiesare twice as likely to die as infants from the country'swealthiest families. In rural Punjab in India, child mortalityamong the landless is 36 percent higher thanamong the landowning classes (16).These disparities are aggravated by disparities in thedelivery of social services. In low-human-developmentcountries, 72 percent of the population live in ruralareas, but the rural population is only half as likely tohave access to health, safe water, and sanitation services(17). Education is also less available in rural areas;in some African and Asian countries, rural literacyrates are less than half those in urban areas (18).Women are particularly hard hit by the acceleratingspiral of poverty and environmental degradation.When they have to devote more and more time to obtainingfuel and water, they have less time to devote tofood production, to increase the household income, topursue their own education, and to improve familywelfare. These growing burdens can cause still furtheradverse social and economic consequences for themselvesand their families (19).INVESTING IN HUMAN DEVELOPMENTImprovements in human health and educational opportunitiesare important for their own sake, but theyalso play a critical role in achieving economic developmentand protecting the environment. Yet in countrieswith some of the most urgent needs for investment ineducation and health, expenditures in these priorityareas have been declining. Half the African countrieshad lower real social expenditures per capita in 1985-87 than in 1979-81 (20).EducationIn both education and health, the most urgent priorityis to provide basic services for the poor majority. Inmany poor countries, the economic returns from primaryeducation for both the individual and the societyare almost twice as high as those from higher education.Moreover, spending on primary education is onemeans of specifically providing resources to the poor.Many poor countries, however, spend more on highereducation than on primary; over 100 million childrenreceive no primary education at all (21).Yet changes are taking place. The share of primaryschooling in education budgets increased during the1980s in 15 of 22 African countries examined, andcountries in Africa and elsewhere are finding creativeways of both reducing costs and expanding services.Using teachers with less formal training (for example,as assistant teachers, as in Senegal and Colombia), increasingthe size of classes, operating double (or eventriple) shifts to save on the capital costs of buildings,equipment, and libraries, and recovering at least someof the costs of higher education through user chargesall offer the potential for significant savings (22). Suchsavings allow more children to be reached withoutmajor increases in education budgets.Community resources and parental involvementalso can make a significant difference. The BangladeshRural Advancement Committee (BRAC) is a nongovernmentalorganization providing a three-year basiccurriculum at a cost of $15 per pupil per year. By involvingvillage leaders and parents, and using simpleclassrooms and teachers who are not fully trained,BRAC prepares children who might not otherwisehave access to schooling (especially girls from poorfamilies) for entry into the official school system in thefourth year. Growing evidence suggests that schoolsmanaged, and to some extent financed, by local communitiesare more efficient than those run as part of acentralized system (23).HealthIn health, as in education, decentralization is the key toboth more efficient and more effective services. Primaryhealth care—consisting of a broad network ofcommunity health clinics and community-basedhealth workers providing basic preventive care andhealth education as well as treatment for the most commonillnesses—offers an effective, quick, and relativelyinexpensive way of improving the health of themajority of the population in poor countries. TheUNDP estimates that it costs between $100 and $600 tosave each additional life through preventive healthcare, compared with $500-$5,000 for curative care (24).Many poor countries spend as much as 80-90 percentof their health budgets on hospitals and, at thesame time, have some of the highest infant mortalityWorld Resources 1992-9331

3 Poor Countriesrates in the world. Restructuring these health expendituresoffers significant opportunities for improving apopulation's health. Bangladesh, for example, redirectedits health care spending from a largely urbanand curative focus toward grassroots health services tothe poor throughout the country. Between 1978 and1988, the share for rural health clinics in the budgetrose from 10 percent to 60 percent; in the same time period(1981 through 1988-89), the proportion of 1-yearoldsimmunized against the major causes of death inchildhood increased from 1 percent to 60 percent (25).Switching to lower-cost drugs (e.g., generic ratherthan name-brands), buying them more efficiently (e.g.,by purchasing through competitive bidding), choosingmore appropriate therapies (e.g., oral rehydration therapyrather than intravenous feeding for diarrhea) (seeChapter 6, "Population and Human Development"),employing traditional healers and other personnelwith fewer formal qualifications, and involving communitiesin building or paying for health clinics alloffer the potential for significant savings in health expendituresand thus could enable more people to bereached (26).Stabilizing PopulationsImproved health and education will have positive effectson population, but only if the opportunities areavailable for women to choose the family size theywant. There is considerable evidence that strong, wellmanagedfamily planning programs are highly effective;they reduce family size, improve the health ofmothers and children, and result in more balancedrates of population growth. The voluntary use of contraceptionin poor countries has risen from 10 percentof couples in the 1960s to 51 percent today (27 percentexcluding China and India) (27). (See Chapter 16, "Populationand Human Development," Table 16.6.) Theaverage number of births per woman dropped fromsix in 1960 to four in 1990. If all the women who saythat they want no more children had full access to familyplanning services, the number of births could besharply reduced: by an estimated 27 percent in Africa,33 percent in Asia, and 35 percent in Latin America (28).The availability of a wide range of convenient andlow-cost contraceptive options, noncoercive incentivesto lower fertility, cultural sensitivity and adaptation tocommunity needs, and effective dissemination of informationabout the advantages of family limitation andbirth spacing and about the contraceptives themselvesall contribute to success in slowing population growth(29). Ultimately, however, use of contraception dependson a wide range of social and economic factors,including the availability of security in old age, therole of children in providing the family's livelihood,and the role of religious institutions in the society.Family planning programs work best when offered incombination with other social and economic developmentefforts.Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and themedia have particularly important roles to play. NGOscan often cost-effectively reach local populations; andthey often pioneer new approaches. Radio, television,films, and, increasingly, video cassette recorders offerthe means of reaching even illiterate populations. Makingfamily planning information available throughsuch media can significantly influence behavior (30).ENCOURAGING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTThe poor countries were severely affected by economicstagnation in the 1980s. Their economies suffered fromthe growing debt burden, the decline in primary productprices, and the hardships of economic restructuringimposed by international development agencies.In sub-Saharan Africa, where per capita GNP growthwas low even in the "good years" between 1965 and1980 (2.8 percent compared with 3.7 percent for developingcountries as a whole), per capita GNP declinedan average of 2.6 percent per year between 1980 and1988. By 1988, per capita GNP in sub-Saharan Africawas 19 percent lower than in 1980. Many poor countries'debt in 1988 was larger than their income, insome cases three times as large (31).These difficulties have intensified a long-running debateabout the role of economic growth in developmentand how best to achieve it. Achieving effectivedevelopment collaboration among the many actors involvedin poor countries' development—the governments,bilateral and multilateral donor agencies, localand foreign NGOs, communities, and, where it exists,the private sector—has proved to be an elusive, if notimpossible, task. Yet the divergence in views may notbe as wide as the intensity of the debate has at timessuggested (32).Stabilization and Structural AdjustmentThe policies of stabilization and structural adjustmentpursued by the International Monetary Fund and theWorld Bank have been a focus of much current discontentwith development policy. Intended to maintainforeign exchange balances and promote economicmodernization and growth, adjustment programs generallyinclude measures to manage demand, improvethe incentive system, increase market efficiency, andpromote investment. Specific policy measures includeexchange-rate devaluation, wage reductions, trade liberalization,financial liberalization, public sector reform,tax reform, privatization of public enterprises,land reform, and the removal of price distortions of inputsand outputs in agriculture, forestry, and energy (33).Whatever their successes in achieving macroeconomicgoals, structural adjustment policies have beencriticized by other international agencies, developingcountrygovernments, and an increasingly vocal andactive community of grassroots organizations for theirharmful effects on both poor people and the environment(34) (35). The Economic Commission for Africa(ECA), for example, charged that "structural adjustmentprograms are rending the fabric of African society,"with greatest impact on "the vulnerable groups-children, women, and the aged." The ECA cited thesocial consequences of adjustment policies as decliningper capita GNP and wages, rising unemployment32World Resources 1992-93

Poor Countries 3Box 3.1 Community Institutions in Resource Management: Agroforestry in GhanaIn the village of Goviefe-Agodome, inGhana's Volta region, a government-initiatedlocal self-development cooperativehas successfully turned land that was consideredmarginal into productive farmlandthrough various agroforestry practices.In a country that is still recoveringfrom the political instability and economicupheaval of the 1970s and early 1980s andthat is heavily dependent on its rural populationfor food and foreign exchange,grassroots participation in solving localproblems and carrying out self-help communityimprovement activities is crucial.In 1984, the government's National MobilizationProgramme was established to encouragethe formation of village mobilizationsquads (locally called "mobisquads")for purposes of community developmentand national economicrecovery.Goviefe-Agodome's mobisquad was initiatedin 1983-84 by six villagers returningfrom Nigeria, when that country expellednearly 1 million Ghanaians. At the time,the community's village leaders were notactively engaged in community developmentwork. When presented with the opportunityprovided by the newly formedmobisquad, however, village leaders andother organizations willingly joined in theeffort, making the mobisquad one of themost widely representative organizationsin operation.In 1986, the 41-member Goviefe-Agodome mobisquad's first operationalyear, it established a 4.8-hectare communalfarm of cassava, maize, and cocoyamand intercropped with teak and leucaenatrees. The sale of the crops earned themobisquad 750,000 cedis (US$2,500). Themobisquad divided most of the profitsequally among its members, but used30,000 cedis for two community projects,an improved latrine and a clinic.In the next three years, the mobisquadgrew both in membership (to 71 members)and in the range of activities undertaken.In its first four years of operation, it developeda 37.6-hectare agroforestry farm,planted 19.2 hectares of cotton, nursed approximately14,000 tree seedlings, andtransplanted about 17,000 seedlings. Fromthese and related activities, the mobisquadnetted more than 3.28 million cedis(US$10,000).Four elements contributed to the successof Goviefe-Agodome's community developmentefforts:• The mobisquad, with support of the localleaders and other institutions, has enabledthe villagers to design, implement, andmanage their own development efforts;• Their efforts yield immediate and significantfinancial benefits to the cooperativemembers and their households; only asmall percentage of the mobisquad's profitsare for community-wide efforts;• The resource management activities arelocally sustainable and involve practicesand techniques familiar to the members;and• The community has benefited from itsproximity to an important road, linking itto major urban areas and facilitating externalassistance in its development activities.The Goviefe-Agodome experienceshows that the collective decision and actionpower of the community regardingresource use and abuse is key to attainingsustainable development. Communitieswith viable village institutions and committedlocal leadership can mobilize locallabor and resources and, with modest externalassistance, can make important contributionsto local development (i).References and Notes1. Clement Dorm-Adzobu, OkyeameAmpadu-Agyei, and Peter G. Veit, CommunityInstitutions in Resource Management:Agroforestry by Mobisquads in Ghana, Fromthe Ground Up Case Study Series, No. 3(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1991), pp. 1-20.and underemployment, deterioration in the level of socialservices, falling educational and training standards,rising malnutrition and health problems, andrising poverty levels and income inequalities (36).While the debate continues / there is growing consensusthat structural adjustment policies are indeed necessarybut should be designed not only to minimizetheir adverse impact on the poor but also to reduce futurepoverty (37) (38) and contribute to sustainable naturalresource management (39). In Africa, the SocialDimensions of Adjustment Project is a joint effort bythe UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa, the African DevelopmentBank, and the World Bank to integrate povertyreduction programs into the design of adjustmentand development plans (40). The policy leverage of adjustmentprograms could also be used in support ofland reform, health, education, agricultural priorities,environmental regeneration, family planning, constructivepublic works projects, and the creation ofrural economic centers (41).Importance of Local ParticipationAnother area of emerging consensus is that to be sustainable,development must be participatory and community-based.Throughout the poor countries,successful development initiatives share a number ofcharacteristics. They address needs identified by localpeople, involve people in the design as well as the implementationof projects, use techniques and principlessuited to local conditions, and respond flexibly tochanging circumstances, either correcting previousmistakes or incorporating new information ^2) (43).Whether initiated by local communities themselves orby outside donors, the most successful and sustainabledevelopment efforts have been those in which the intendedbeneficiaries had the opportunity to participateboth in defining the problem and in choosing solutions.(See Box 3.1.)Some of the most successful projects are those initiatedand run by local communities and indigenousNGOs. (See Chapter 14, "Policies and Institutions.")The provision of credit is just one area in which informalorganizations—in which the participants themselvesput up the money—have been more successfulthan modern commercial institutions in encouragingself-employment and microenterprise development.The Grameen (meaning "rural" in Bengali) Bank ofBangladesh is perhaps the most well-known of thesmall-loan, self-help credit institutions. Founded in1976 and formally established by government order in1983 (44), the bank now provides up to $10 million permonth in loans averaging about $70; it has a 98 percentrepayment record. Over 90 percent of its loans are towomen (45) (46). According to the International Fundfor Agricultural Development (IFAD)—which has similaractivities throughout the developing world—to besuccessful, credit programs must target women as wellas men, foster the active and ongoing participation ofWorld Resources 1992-9333

3 Poor Countriesthe poor not just as recipients of loans but as integralpartners in development, and draw on the experiencesof grassroots NGOs (47).Assisted Self-RelianceAs a result of such experiences, old distinctions between"top-down" and "bottom-up" development areincreasingly viewed as no longer relevant. The emergingconsensus is that the role of governments is not somuch to "do" development but to create the conditionsthat allow self-reliant development to takeplace—what Norman Uphoff calls "assisted self-reliance"(48).Only governments have the resources, authority,and organizational capacity to build roads, bridges,and secondary schools and to enact broad social and financialpolicies. An important strategy, therefore,might be for governments of poor countries to implementpolicies to foster broad-based participatory andsustainable economic growth; that is, to establish largescalepolicies that encourage and support small-scaledevelopment (49). In addition to investing in human development,as discussed above, this strategy might involve,among other things, maintaining infrastructure,improving trade, reforming land tenure, fostering publicaccountability, improving the position of women,and focusing aid on the poorest segments of society.Because roads, railroads, ports, utilities, and other facilitiesin many poor countries have been poorly maintainedin recent years, for example, rehabilitation ofinfrastructure is a more pressing need than investmentin new facilities, and use of domestic contractors can simultaneouslyincrease employment.Similarly, most poor countries, especially in Africa,have markets that are too small to achieve economiesof scale without trade, and industries that are too newand inexperienced to compete without protection fromestablished overseas industries. Increased regionaltrade, which is already taking place informally inmany cases (50), provides an excellent opportunity toexpand markets. Moving in this direction would requireremoving obstacles to the movement of capital,labor, and goods and establishing simpler administrativeprocedures (51).Employment OpportunitiesIn many poor countries—especially in Asia, whereshortages of land mean that farming and other agriculturalactivities are not able to absorb growing populations—generatingemployment is an urgent priority.Faster rural employment growth can simultaneouslyincrease people's earnings, reduce rural-to-urban migration,reduce resource and environmental pressures,and improve the position of women. Establishing pricingpolicies in poor countries that encourage agriculturalproduction would also encourage employmentgrowth. At present, however, agricultural prices inmost developing countries discourage agricultural production(52). Decentralizing government programs toregional and local authorities and creating the climate(through economic incentives and political stability) todraw increased official and private capital flowswould also increase employment (53).Developed countries also have a role to play. Removalof industrial countries' trade barriers to laborintensivemanufactures such as textiles, apparel, andfootwear would do more to expand employment inlow-income countries than any other measure. Itwould simultaneously have significant benefits forconsumers in advanced countries (54).Land Tenure ReformIn many poor countries, land ownership is extremelyconcentrated, with 20 percent of the rural populationlandless, about one half of the farmers (with averagelandholdings of less than 2 hectares) together occupying3-4 percent of the total agricultural area, and asfew as 10 percent of the farmers (each holding thousandsof hectares) together occupying one half to threequarters of the total agricultural area. Large holdingsare often used inefficiently and in some instances sitidle. In areas where these conditions prevail, land redistributionand tenurial reform would both reducepressure on resources and dramatically reduce poverty(55).Removing SubsidiesCharging users for the services they receive—whetherin education, health, transportation, water, or sanitation—canencourage more careful use of the services.User charges, provided they are imposed equitably(e.g., those with higher incomes pay more, or chargesare imposed for higher levels of service but not forlower), may be an effective way of both limiting costsand increasing the number of people with access to theservices (56).Food subsidies are an example of a potentially inefficientpolicy. Food subsidies that are available to eventhe relatively wealthy may continue to receive politicalsupport, but they are a highly inefficient way of helpingthe poor. Approaches that target the most needy aspart of an integrated nutrition strategy including nutritioneducation and primary health care are much moreeffective (57).Women's Economic OpportunitiesThe enormous disparities that exist between opportunitiesfor men and women and the disproportionateburden that rural poverty and environmental degradationposes for women mean that expanded opportunitiesfor women can result in significant returns forthem, their families, and their communities. The disparitiesbetween men and women in the poor countriesbegin in childhood, when girls have less accessthan boys to education, and sometimes even less foodand health care. In Nepal, to cite an extreme case, only57 percent of girls are enrolled in primary school whilethe number for boys is over 90 percent; in Chad, enrollmentis 29 percent for girls and 73 percent for boys (58).(See Figure 3.2.) In Bangladesh, malnutrition is threetimes more common among young girls than boys.Maternal mortality rates—as high as 1,000 per 100,00034World Resources 1992-93

Poor Countries 3Figure 3.2 Percentage of Male and FemaleChildren Enrolled in Primary School, 1988(percent)80-60-40-20-o-• Total111FemaleAfrica, Low IncomeIMale^Mm1 1A 1 1Asia, Low income China and IndiaSource: The World Bank, World Development Report 1991 (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1991), Table 29, pp. 260—261.live births in low-human-development countries comparedwith 10 or fewer in most developed countries—are dramatic evidence of the neglect of women'shealth. The literacy rate of women in the developingworld as a whole is three quarters that of men (59).In poor countries, development efforts in the informalsector have been particularly effective in increasingwomen's earnings. The elimination of laws andcustoms preventing women's participation in trainingand other development programs and their access tocredit, education, and housing and property ownershipcould do much to increase women's opportunities(60). Increases in women's status, education, andearnings, along with the availability of maternal andchild health care, also are significant factors in improvingchild nutrition and health, as well as reducing familysize (61).PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENTIn poor countries, because of the close relationship betweenpoverty, population growth, and environmentaldegradation, the most important actions to conservenatural resources are those that are aimed at stabilizingpopulations and alleviating poverty. However, specificefforts to maintain as much as possible of eachcountry's natural and modified ecosystems, to halt deforestation,and to conserve biological diversity arealso badly needed. Creating and maintaining protectedareas and protecting threatened species are importantcomponents of the necessary strategy (62).Using both wild and managed biological resources inways that allow stocks to renew themselves is also important.The spiral of poverty, population growth, and environmentaldegradation that characterizes many poorcountries is frequently aggravated by policies that activelyencourage waste and resource degradation, particularlyin agriculture, forestry, and energy (63). Forexample, holding agricultural prices artificially low tobenefit the urban minority discourages investment insoil and tree conservation. Subsidizing pesticides, fertilizers,and other agricultural inputs encourages theiruse and leads to residues and runoff that can be environmentallydetrimental. And providing tax incentivesthat encourage forest clearing for timber andranching creates short-term profits for a few while seriouslydegrading the environment.Many developing countries subsidize the cost offuel. Protecting the environment in poor countrieswould require economic incentives, including pricesand tax policies, that favor resource conservationrather than resource degradation. However, the directionand impact of policy change are not always clearcutand must be carefully suited to local conditions (64).An especially important ingredient in successful naturalresource management is community participationin the design as well as the execution of developmentinitiatives. Governments and international agencies seriousabout protecting the environment can take anumber of measures to foster decentralized, smallscalenatural resource management. Planning wouldbegin with input from local individuals and institutionsidentifying needs, problems, and priorities ratherthan with decisions made by outsiders.Governments and international organizations cantrain local officials in the tools and methodologies ofplanning, finance, and materials acquisition; they canprovide small development funds to catalyze local initiatives;they can conduct research to improve locallyknown and accepted techniques rather than promotingnew and foreign practices; and they can train village-basedand local specialists in terracing, reforestation,water development, and land management, insteadof supplying outside experts. In addition, theycan promote linkages between local communities andcentral authorities by integrating community plansinto regional contexts; such linkages can then contributeto creating regional markets for both agriculturaland other products.Building the institutional capacity of societies tomonitor and correct environmental abuses is an importantlong-term strategy. Well-trained governmentregulators are essential. A reliable legal framework, inwhich the judiciary has the capacity to enforce laws,can allow the people themselves to play an enforcementrole (65). A free and independent press, capableof asking hard questions and monitoring progress, canprovide people with the information they need to opposeenvironmental degradation. It is encouragingthat in some of the world's poorest countries in WestAfrica, where what little press there was has alwaysbeen subject to total state control, there are now dozensof "hard-hitting, well-produced" independentnewspapers (66).BUILDING ON LOCAL TECHNOLOGIESThe process of sustainable development would be advancedby the development and use of labor-intensive,energy-efficient, low-cost technologies that improveproductivity or conserve natural resources in poorWorld Resources 1992-9335

3 Poor CountriesBox 3.2 Combining Traditional Agricultural Techniques and Modern ExpertiseA growing body of experience suggeststhat traditional knowledge offers an importantcontribution to sustainable developmentin poor countries. Because theyare locale-specific and ecologically rational,traditional farming, water use, andagroforestry practices often provide an importantstarting point. Some of the mostsuccessful breakthroughs occur where researcherswork with small farmers, learningfrom their experience, and helpingthem improve the traditional practices describedbelow.Intercropping is the growing of two ormore crops that have complementaryneeds for light, soil, or water in the samefield; it reduces the risk of single crop failuresand provides a regular supply offood over the year. When sorghum andgroundnuts are grown together, the combinedyield is 25 percent higher than whenthey are grown separately in the samearea; millet and cowpea together have ayield more than 50 percent higher thanwhen they are grown as monocrops; andcassava can be added to maize withoutany reduction in the maize yield. Thesetechniques, long known particularly toWest Africans, who intercrop as much as80 percent of their farmland, are now beginningto be appreciated by researchersand scientists as well (U (2).Agroforestry involves combining treegrowing with agriculture and is widelyconsidered to offer significant potential, especiallyfor those who cannot afford pesticides,fertilizers, and irrigation (3). Forestfarmers have developed sophisticated systemsof tree and crop farming that mimicthe surrounding multistoried vegetation (4).One widely heralded agroforestry techniqueis the alley cropping (i.e., alternatingrows of crops and trees) of a tree speciesknown as Leucaena leucocephala. Althoughit is cited as having excellent results inNepal (5) and in Tanzania, the results elsewherehave been mixed (6) (7). More successfulin Asia than in Africa, the bestalley cropping efforts offer farmers substantialimmediate benefits in the form offood, fodder, fuelwood, poles, or cash (8).Small-scale irrigation. In Burkina Faso,lines of stone were arranged along the contourto hold back rainwater, making itpool uphill and giving it time to sink intothe soil. These stone lines have resulted inyield increases averaging more than 50percent and have been estimated to havethe potential to turn most of BurkinaFaso's barren expanses back into usablecropland (9). Similar examples can befound in other parts of the world. By developinga minor irrigation tank, the peopleof the village of Sukhomajri in Indiasucceeded in reducing soil erosion, triplingaverage annual crop yields, andgreatly increasing grass and fodder availabilityand thus milk production do). InChambrum, Haiti, the people built a damand dug a network of ditches that enabledthem to divert water from a canal carryingirrigation runoff from the nearby sugarplantation. In a previously completely aridarea, there is now "row after row of sweetpotato plants, corn, sugar cane, and sorghum"(ii).Organic recycling—the use of crop residuesand manure—is another low-costtechnique that can significantly increaseproductivity. In the Guinope area of Honduras,the introduction of organic fertilizers(chicken manure and green manurederived from the intercropping of leguminousplants) and some chemical fertilizersand traditional soil conservation techniquesproduced increased yields as wellas increases in employment opportunities,reduced water pollution, and protection offorest cover 02).Minimum tillage, a traditional method involvinglimited land disturbance, wasonce dismissed as unscientific but is nowrecognized by agricultural researchers tobe an environmentally sound and productiveapproach for most of the humid tropics,where deep plowing can speed erosionand soil degradation (13). (See Chapter7, "Food and Agriculture.")References and Notes1. Paul Harrison, The Greening of Africa: BreakingThrough in the Battle for Land and Food(Paladin, London, 1987), pp. 108-109.2. Bill Rau, From Feast to Famine: Official Curesand Grassroots Remedies to Africa's Food Crisis(Zed Books, London and Atlantic Highlands,New Jersey, 1991), pp. 146-147.3. Geoffrey Barnard, "Agroforestry. Behindthe Buzzwords," Panoscope, No. 19 (July1990), p. 9.4. Op. cit. 1, p. 75.5. Kenneth Tull, Michael Sands, and MiguelAltieri, Experiences in Success: Case Studiesin Growing Enough Food Through RegenerativeAgriculture (Rodale International,Emmaus, Pennsylvania, 1987), pp. 5-13.6. Paul Kerkhof, Agroforestry in Africa: A Surveyof Project Experience (Panos, Washington,D.C., and London, 1990), p. 8.7. "Beware of Miracle Trees," Panoscope, No.19 Quly 1990), p. 20.8. John B. Raintree, "Agroforestry: Lookingfor the Wood in the Trees," Panoscope, No.19 (July 1990), p. 21.9. Op. cit. 1, pp. 165-170.10. Anil Agarwal and Sunita Narain, TowardsGreen Villages: A Strategy for Environmentally-Soundand Participatory Rural Development(Centre for Science and Environment,New Delhi, 1989), pp. 17-18.11. Patrick Breslin, Development and Dignity(Inter-American Foundation, Rosslyn, Virginia,1987), pp. 48-49.12. Walter V. Reid, James N. Barnes, and BrentBlackwelder, Bankrolling Successes: A Portfolioof Sustainable Development Projects (EnvironmentalPolicy Study Institute andNational Wildlife Federation, Washington,D.C., 1988), pp. 21 and 26-27.13. Op. cit. 1, pp. 135-137.countries. However, one of the central lessons gainedfrom many small-scale development projects is thattechnologies already known and accepted by the peoplehave a much higher rate of success than new andunfamiliar technologies. Thus, development of technologiesfor the poor countries needs to give a high priorityto increasing the effectiveness and efficiency oflocally known techniques (67).Nonetheless, further research on improved technologies—especiallythose applicable to agriculture or torural life—is important. Because farming itself is thesource of much environmental degradation, improvementsin agriculture—and in the resource base onwhich agriculture depends—are badly needed. In Africa,in particular, raising agricultural productionamong small farmers has the potential to combat povertyand promote economic growth (68). Building onthe knowledge of rural peoples has already led to successeswith intercropping, agroforestry, small-scale irrigationsystems, organic recycling, and improvedtillage methods. (See Box 3.2.) To fully use the knowledgethat local farmers have of their land and of waysto manage it, however, development agencies need toshift from a technical or bureaucratic approach to aparticipatory one (69).Energy technologies are also of critical importance topoor countries. Poor rural populations throughout thedeveloping world depend heavily on traditional biomassfuels—fuelwood, charcoal, dung, and crop residues—forenergy. (See Chapter 10, "Energy.") Suchfuels provide approximately 60 percent of fuel needsin poor countries excluding China and India (22 percentincluding China and India) (70). In sub-Saharan Africa,such fuels account for two thirds of the energy36World Resources 1992-93

Poor Countries 3Figure 3.3 Energy Sources in PoorCountries, 1989(exajoules)40-30-20-10-Commercial FuelsTraditional FuelsAfrica, Low Income Asia, Low Income China and IndiaSource: United Nations (U.N.), U.N. Energy Yearbook 1989 (U.N., New York,1991),consumption, with some four fifths of the populationrelying wholly or partly on them (71). (See Figure 3.3.)In very poor countries, the proportion of traditionalfuels is even higher, exceeding 90 percent of primaryenergy supplies in countries such as Ethiopia, Nepal,and Bangladesh. (See Chapter 21, "Energy and Materials,"Table 21.2.) More than 50 million Africans alreadyface acute fuelwood scarcities (72). This situationis getting worse as increased prices for other fuels, especiallypetroleum and electricity, result in greater relianceon biomass in urban areas as well (73). Fuelwoodshortages require rural women to spend increasingamounts of time collecting wood, causing a host ofnegative social and economic consequences, such asdecreases in child nutrition (74). Moreover, as farmersbegin to burn dung and agricultural residues insteadof using them as fertilizers, the cycle of poverty and environmentaldestruction is further aggravated (75). Developmentof more efficient domestic stoves or cookingmethods would help to minimize fuelwood needs.Most of the commercial fuel used by poor countriesis in the form of oil (76). In some countries—includingEthiopia, India and Viet Nam—energy imports andthe interest on the money borrowed to buy energy representnearly 25 percent or more of export earnings (77).Thus there are severe environmental and foreign exchangeconstraints on increasing the availability of energyin poor countries. Yet energy is essential toaddressing other priority issues confronting thesecountries, including the provision of adequate suppliesof safe water, the building of physical infrastructure,the generation of nonfarm sources of employment,and increased agricultural production.In many poor countries, the best prospects in thenear term for increasing energy supplies may be fromincreased biomass production. However, this same biomassis also needed for food, fodder, building materials,and industrial raw materials (78). Increased biomassproduction can buy time for the development ofother renewable technologies, including biogas andbiomethanization, that appear to offer some potentialfor both meeting rural energy needs and providing organicfertilizer for agriculture (79).MOBILIZING RESOURCESThe biggest barrier to sustainable development may bethe lack of political commitment. Investing in humandevelopment, creating the climate and incentives foreconomic growth, and implementing measures to protectthe environment will cost a lot of money. But themoney can be found, if difficult choices are made. Reallocationof existing government expenditures inpoor countries combined with some increases andsome redirection of foreign assistance could providemuch of the necessary financing (80). What is needed,however, is the political commitment—by both nationalgovernments and development agencies—to reversethe cycle of poverty, environmental degradation,and human deprivation that characterizes poor countries.Opportunities for more participatory and equitabledevelopment appear to be increasing. There is increasingrecognition that development as practiced to datehas failed to reach the world's poor people and anemerging consensus about the linkage between povertyand environmental degradation. Combined withan upsurge in the number of democratically electedgovernments, such trends could make possiblechanges in policies previously impossible. Nonetheless,many governments will face profound oppositionfrom those whose interests are challenged. Encouragingdemocratic freedom, invoking common interests,compensating powerful groups, empowering weakergroups, channeling credit to the poor, and allowing afree press are all methods of overcoming such opposition(81). In addition, by computing the costs of economicactivity in ways that show their true costs,including their environmental effects, governmentscan encourage the search for and use of more sustainableoptions (82) (83).The resources for supporting sustainable developmentin poor countries can come from the poor countriesthemselves, in large measure. But carefully directedresources from industrial countries—and reexaminedpolicies within those countries—are also needed.National PoliciesNearly $50 billion—2 percent of the combined GNP ofdeveloping countries— could be made available for developmentpurposes by reducing military spending,halting capital flight, eliminating corruption, reformingpublic enterprises, and reducing internal policing.Military expenditures absorb 5.5 percent of the GNP ofthe developing world (84); in some of the poor countries,including Sudan, Uganda, Pakistan, and India,military spending exceeds spending on education andhealth combined. (See Chapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators,"Table 15.3.) Simply by freezing their militaryexpenditures at current levels, developing countriescould release $10-$15 billion per year—as much as$150 billion by the year 2000 (85).World Resources 1992-9337

3 Poor CountriesSignificant additional resources could also be obtainedif basic services— e.g., in health, education,credit, transportation, communications, water, andsanitation—were provided to all before more advancedservices were provided for the smaller middleandupper-middle-income groups (86).As noted above, in health, this redirection means restructuringin favor of primary care; in education, itmeans diverting some resources from secondary andtertiary education toward primary schools. Similargains are possible with respect to water and sanitationservices. Of the $10 billion now spent annually onthese services in developing countries, 80 percent goesto schemes costing $550 or more per person; less than20 percent goes to low-cost strategies costing less than$30 per person served (87).Policies for Development AssistanceAs with national budgets, simply restructuring foreignassistance priorities in favor of social sector expenditures—andwithin the social sector, in favor of the provisionof basic services—could significantly increasethe prospects for sustainable development. In somepoor countries, aid provides such a high proportion ofthe development budget (in Chad, for example, aidprovides 53 percent of total expenditures on healthand education), that foreign assistance priorities are amajor determinant of national priorities (88). Accordingto one estimate, if only the increases in aid over thenext few years were allocated to primary health care,primary education, and low-cost water and sanitationschemes, the annual amount of aid available for thesepurposes would double (89).Development agencies and other donors could decideto provide aid only to countries that have pledgedto make social and environmental concerns priorityareas. A less intrusive way of achieving the same objectiveis for donors simply to direct more of their aid towardcountries that are already making peopleoriented,ecologically sound development a priority.UNICEF, UNDP, and others have argued that theproblem with adjustment assistance is not the fact thatconditions have been attached to the provision of aidbut the fact that those conditions have worked againstthe poor. "Human adjustment assistance" would providedevelopment aid to countries pursuing policiessuch as investing in social infrastructure, promotinggrowth in employment, and providing credit to thepoor (90).Debt relief offers another major opportunity for promotingsustainable development. Although the absoluteamount of money owed by poor countries is smallin relation to that owed by the major debtors, in relationto the poor countries' exports and incomes, it isstaggering. The countries with low human development,for example, have an average debt service ratio—that is, the total debt service as a percentage of exportsof goods and services—of 28.4 percent, with manycountries considerably higher (for example, Ethiopiaat 37.4 percent and Indonesia at 34.1 percent) (91)."Debt for nature" swaps, in which commercial andofficial creditors cancel the debt on the condition thatthose resources be invested in programs to promote environmentalsustainability, could be supplemented bysimilar programs to invest in social expenditures. Twosuch measures—UNICEF's Debt for Child Developmentprogram and the Inter-American DevelopmentBank's Social Investment Fund—are already in place (92).Industrial country donors need to take steps to modifydomestic policies that work against their developmentassistance. Industrial countries, for example,subsidize their own domestic agricultural activities ona scale of $300 billion per year (93), creating enormousagricultural surpluses. These surpluses not only denydeveloping countries markets for their products butalso are periodically supplied to poor countries in theform of food aid, which can depress the local marketsand perhaps postpone agricultural reform. At thesame time, tariff barriers in industrial countries keepout many agricultural products from developing countries.The removal of such subsidies and trade barrierswould increase export markets for poor countries.CONCLUSIONIn the poor countries, where poverty, environmentaldegradation, and human deprivation are closelylinked and are aggravated by high population growth,measures to address these problems can be mutuallyreinforcing. Improvements in people's health andskills contribute to economic progress and—whenavailable to women—to reduced births. Slower populationgrowth increases the opportunities available tothe current population, which in turn increases thepeople's capacity for responding to opportunities andincentives that protect the environment and promoteeconomic development. A secure resource base and increasesin nonagricultural employment opportunities—again,especially for women—in turn contributeto economic growth and to improved human prospects.Because of these synergistic relationships, simultaneouslypursuing action on all fronts—investing inthe development of people, promoting economicgrowth, and arresting massive environmental destruction—offersthe possibility of turning a vicious cycleinto a virtuous cycle.But the challenge is formidable and will require politicalcommitment and a host of policies to foster equity,participation, and resource conservation. Thealternative, however, may well be increased ecologicaldisaster and poverty—and the social cleavages theycreate—in poor countries.People are their own best advocates when they havethe opportunity. They know what they want and understandbetter than outsiders the local ecological, social,political, and cultural context. Initiatives thatrespect local knowledge, support rather than supplantlocal leadership, and work within existing institutions,supplementing but not replacing local wisdom withtechnical expertise, have the best chances of success.World Resources 1992-9338

Poor Countries 3Sustainable development on a global scale is inseparablefrom the problems of the poor countries. A betterlife for their populations is a step toward sustainableimprovement in the quality of life for the world as awhole / both rich and poor (94).This chapter was written by Rosemarie Philips, a writer and editorin Alexandria, Virginia, who specializes in development issues, withinput from several senior WRI staff members and assistance fromWRI Research Assistant Tim Johnston.References and Notes13.These countries are Afghanistan,Bangladesh, Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso,Burundi, Cambodia, the Central African Republic,Chad, China, Ethiopia, Ghana,Guinea, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Kenya, theLao People's Democratic Republic, Lesotho,Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania,Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger,Nigeria, Pakistan, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia,Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo,Uganda, Viet Nam, Zaire, and Zambia.The World Bank, World Development Report1991 (Oxford University Press, New York,1991), pp. 199 and 204.United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report 1991 (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1991), p. 153.Countries that appear on the low-humandevelopmentlist that are not listed as havinglow incomes are as follows: Algeria,Angola, Bolivia, Cameroon, Cape Verde,the Comoros, the Congo, Cote d'lvoire,Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, theGambia, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras,Morocco, Namibia, Papua New Guinea,the Republic of Yemen, Sao Tome andPrincipe, Senegal, Swaziland, Vanuatu, andZimbabwe.Indonesia, a poor country that is also rapidlyindustrializing, is discussed in more detailin Chapter 4, "Rapidly IndustrializingCountries."Op. cit. 2, pp. 204-205 and 258-259.The World Bank, World Development Report1990 (Oxford University Press, New York,1990), p. 28.H. Jeffrey Leonard, Environment and thePoor: Development Strategies for a CommonAgenda (Transaction Books, New Brunswick,New Jersey, 1989), pp. 9-10.Op. cit. 3, pp. 2 and 24.Robert W. Kates, "Hunger, Poverty and theHuman Environment," paper presented atthe Michigan State University Center forAdvanced Study of International Development,East Lansing, Michigan, May 6,1990.Op. cit. 8, pp. 5-7 and 19.Wilfrido Cruz and Christopher Gibbs,"Resource Policy Reform in the Context ofPopulation Pressure: The Philippines andNepal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics,Vol. 72, No. 5 (1990), pp. 1264-1268.John W. Mellor, "The Intertwining of EnvironmentalProblems and Poverty," Environment,Vol. 30, No. 9 (November 1988), p. 8.Op. cit. 2, p. 265.United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report 1990 (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1990), p. 30.Op. cit. 3, pp. 26,33.Op. cit. 3, p. 137.Op. cit. 3, p. 27.Shubh K. Khumar and David Hotchkiss,"Consequences of Deforestation forWomen's Time Allocation, Agricultural Production,and Nutrition in Hill Areas ofNepal," in IFPRI Research Report (InternationalFood Policy Research Institute, Washington,D.C., 1988), p. 9.20. Op. cit. 3, pp. 45-46.21. Op. cit. 3, p. 51.22. Op. cit. 3, pp. 51 and 62.23. Op. cit. 3, pp. 62-63.24. Op. cit. 3, pp. 50-51.25. Op. cit. 3, pp. 51 and 141.26. Op. cit. 3, p. 63.27. United Nations Fund for Population Activities(UNFPA), The State of World Population1991 (UNFPA, New York, 1991), p. 1.28. World Conservation Union (IUCN), UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP),and World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF),Caring for the Earth (IUCN, UNEP, andWWF, Gland, Switzerland, 1991), p. 51.29. Op. cit. 27, pp. 19-29.30. Op. cit. 27, pp. 22-23.31. Stuart K. Tucker, "The Legacy of Debt: ALost Decade of Development," Policy FocusNo. 3 (Overseas Development Council,Washington, D.C., 1989), pp. 1-4.32. The World Bank, Sub-Sahamn Africa: FromCrisis to Sustainable Growth (The WorldBank, Washington, D.C., 1989), p. 185.33. Stein Hansen, "Structural Adjustment Programsand Sustainable Development" (TheWorld Bank for the Committee of InternationalDevelopment Institutions on the Environment,Washington, D.C., 1988), pp. 1-2.34. United Nations Economic Commission forAfrica (ECA), "African Alternative Frameworkto Structural Adjustment Programmesfor Socio-Economic Recovery and Transformation"(ECA, Addis Ababa, 1989), p. i.35. For the grassroots and nongovernmental organizationcritique, see, for example, RobinBroad, John Cavanagh, and Walden Bello,"Development: The Market is Not Enough,"Foreign Policy, No. 81 (Winter 1990-91), pp.144-162; Fantu Cheru, The Silent Revolutionin Africa: Debt, Development and Democracy(Zed Books, London and Atlantic Highlands,New Jersey, 1989); David C. Korten,Getting to the Twenty-First Century (KumarianPress, West Hartford, Connecticut 1990);and Bill Rau, From Feast to Famine: OfficialCures and Grassroots Remedies to Food Crises(Zed Books, London and Atlantic Highlands,New Jersey, 1991).36. Op. cit. 34, p. 24.37. Helena Ribe, Soniya Carvalho, RobertLiebenthal et ah, How Adjustment ProgramsCan Help the Poor: The World Bank's Experience(The World Bank, Washington, D.C.,1990), p. 1.38. African Development Bank, United NationsDevelopment Programme, and The WorldBank, The Social Dimensions of Adjustment: APolicy Agenda (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. 8.39. Op. cit. 33, p. 22.40. Op. cit. 38, p.m.41. John P. Lewis, "Strengthening the Poor:Some Lessons for the International Community/'in Strengthening the Poor: What HaveWe Learned? John P. Lewis, ed. (TransactionBooks, New Brunswick, New Jersey, 1988),pp. 23-24.42. Barbara Thomas-Slayter, Charity Kabutha,and Richard Ford, Traditional Village Institutionsin Environmental Management: ErosionControl in Katheka, Kenya, From the GroundUp Case Study Series, No. 1 (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1991).43. See also Walter V. Reid, James N. Barnes,and Brent Blackwelder, Bankrolling Successes:A Portfolio of Sustainable DevelopmentProjects (Environmental Policy Institute andNational Wildlife Federation, Washington,D.C., 1988), pp. 29-35; Kenneth Tull and MichaelSands, Experiences in Success (RodaleInternational, Emmaus, Pennsylvania,1987); Roland Bunch, Two Ears of Corn: AGuide to People-Centered Agricultural Improvement(World Neighbors, Oklahoma City,Oklahoma 1982); and Michael Hansen, Escapefrom the Pesticide Treadmill: Alternative toPesticides in Developing Countries (Institutefor Consumer Policy Research, Mount Vernon,New York, 1988), pp. 1-7.44. Mahabub Hossain, Credit for Alleviation ofRural Poverty: The Grameen Bank inBangladesh (International Food Policy ResearchInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1988),p. 12.45. Muhammed Yunus, "Grameen Bank: Organizationand Operation," paper presentedat World Conference on Support for Microenterprises,Committee of Donor Agenciesfor Small Enterprise Development, Washington,D.C., June 1988, p. 2.46. Muhammed Yunus, ed., Grameen Dialogue,No. 8 (Grameen Trust, Dhaka, Bangladesh,September 1991), p. 16.47. Idriss Jazairy, "Preface," in Banking the Unbankable:Bringing Credit to the Poor, IbrahimaBakhoum, Harry Bhaskara, CholaChimbano, et al., eds. (Panos, Washington,D.C., and London, 1989), pp. ii-iii.48. Norman Uphoff, "Assisted Self-Reliance:Working with, Rather Than for, the Poor,"in Strengthening the Poor: What Have WeLearned? John P. Lewis, ed. (TransactionBooks, New Brunswick, New Jersey, 1988),p. 47.49. Sheldon Annis, "Can Small-Scale DevelopmentBe Large-Scale Policy?" in Direct to thePoor: Grassroots Development in Latin America,Sheldon Annis and Peter Hakim, eds.(Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Colorado,and London, 1988), p. 210.50. Fantu Cheru, The Silent Revolution in Africa:Debt, Development and Democracy (ZedBooks, London and Atlantic Highlands,New Jersey, 1989), pp. 19-20.51. Op. cit. 32, pp. 11-12.52. Paul Faeth and Robert Repetto, "AgriculturalPolicy and the Development of SustainableAgriculture," prepared for theBusiness Council for Sustainable DevelopmentDiscussion Workshop, Washington,D.C., September 18,1991, p. 11.World Resources 1992-9339

3 Poor Countries53. Robert Repetto, "Population, Resource Pressures,and Poverty," in The Global Possible:Resources, Development and the New Century,Robert Repetto, ed. (Yale University Press,New Haven, 1985), pp. 158-160.54. Ibid., pp. 161-162.55. Ibid., p. 164.56. Op. cit. 3, pp. 65-66.57. Op. cit. 3, pp. 64-65.58. The World Bank, World Development Report1991 (The World Bank, Washington, D.C.,1991), p. 260.59. Op. cit. 15, p. 31.60. Ibrahima Bakhoum, Harry Bhaskara, CholaChimbano et ah, Banking the Unbankable:Bringing Credit to the Poor (Panos, Washington,D.C., and London, 1989), p. ix.61. Mayra Buveni and Margaret A. Lycette,"Women, Poverty, and Development in theThird World," in Strengthening the Poor:What Have We Learned? John P. Lewis, ed.(Transaction Books, New Brunswick, NewJersey, 1989), pp. 153-158.62. World Conservation Union (IUCN), UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP),and World Resources Institute (WRI), GlobalBiodiversity Strategy: Guidelines for Action toSave, Study, and Use Earth's Biotic Wealth Sustainablyand Equitably (IUCN, UNEP, andWRI, Washington, D.C., forthcoming).63. N. Vijay Jagannathan, "Poverty, Public Policiesand the Environment," EnvironmentWorking Paper No. 24, The World Bank,Washington, D.C., December 1989, p. 4.64. Op. cit. 33, pp. iv-v.65. Op. cit. 32, p. 192.66. Jon Tinker, "Swallows Herald New Springfor West African Press," Panoscope, No. 24(May 1991), pp. 26-27.67. Op. cit. 42, p. 27.68. Op. cit. 32, p. 8.69. John Thompson, Combining Local Knowledgeand Expert Assistance in Natural ResourceManagement: Small-Scale Irrigation in Kenya,From the Ground Up Case Study Series, No.2 (World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1991), p. 25.70. United Nations (U.N.) Statistical Office,1989 Energy Statistics Yearbook (U.N., NewYork, 1991), pp. 90-111.71. Op. cit. 32, p. 129.72. Op. cit. 32, p. 129.73. Dorothy Etoori, Environmental Officer, Ministryof Energy, Minerals, and Environment,Kampala, Uganda, July 1991 (personil communication).74. Op. cit. 19, pp. 46-60.75. Edward B. Barbier, "Sustaining Agricultureon Marginal Land: A Policy Framework,"Environment, Vol. 31, No. 9 (1989), p. 16.76. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment(OTA), Energy in Developing Countries(U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,D.C., 1991), pp. 8 and 13.77. Op. cit. 2, p. 212.78. Anil Agarwal and Sunita Narain, TowardsGreen Villages: A Strategy for Environmentally-Sound and Participatory Rural Development(Centre for Science and Environment, NewDelhi, 1989), p. 1.79. Rene Rabezandrina, "Biogas: Evolution ofActions and Prospects for the Rural Environmentin Africa," Ambio, Vol. 19, No. 8(1990), pp. 424-426.80. Op. cit. 3, p. 78.81. Op. cit. 3, p. 9.82. Robert Repetto, William Magrath, MichaelWells et ah, Wasting Assets: Natural Resourcesin the National Income Accounts (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1989),p. 3.83. Op. cit. 73.84. Op. cit. 3, p. 5.85. Op. cit. 3, pp. 81-83.86. Op. cit. 53, pp. 162-164.87. United Nations Children's Fund, The State ofthe World's Children 1991 (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1991), p. 16.88. Op. cit. 3, pp. 56-57.89. Op. cit. 87, p. 17.90. Op. cit. 3, p. 76.91. Op. cit. 3, p. 155.92. Op. cit. 3, p. 80.93. Jim MacNeill, "Strategies for SustainableEconomic Development," Scientific American,Vol. 261, No. 3 (September 1989), p. 159.94. Op. cit. 73.40World Resources 1992-93

4. Rapidly IndustrializingCountries:Forging New ModelsRapidly industrializing countries (RICs) face a dualchallenge. If their development is to be sustainable,they need to manage the process of industrializationbetter than other industrial countries have. At thesame time, they need to combat poverty and protectthe natural resources that are still the primary base oftheir economies and a significant source of employment.These are immense challenges.Rapidly industrializing countries are thus poised ata unique juncture. They have an unparalleled opportunityto find different paths to development and in sodoing to provide models that other countries could follow.With the right policies, they can achieve rapid economicdevelopment and yet avoid creating environmentalproblems on the scale of those created by theUnited States, European countries, Japan, and others.Doing it right the first time—by installing clean, efficienttechnologies as well as developing the institutionalcapacity to enforce environmental regulations—could lead to "leapfrogging" the development processand building industrial economies that are bothcompetitive and more sustainable than those of countrieswith an older industrial base. Thus, some of thepolicies discussed in Chapter 2 are relevant to RICs.At the same time, RICs would benefit from sharingthe fruits of economic growth with all segments oftheir societies and from protecting their forests, soils,fisheries, and other productive natural resources. Withthe right policies, such countries can combat poverty,promote rural development, and build the skilledwork force needed to support industrialization—whilemaintaining the jobs and revenues that natural resourcesprovide and ensuring that future generationswill also have access to them. Thus, some of the policiesdiscussed in Chapter 3 are also relevant to RICs.Although no officially sanctioned category of rapidlyindustrializing countries exists, this chapter usesas examples Brazil, Chile, and Mexico in Latin Americaand Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand in Asia.(The discussion applies, however, to many other countriesthat face similar challenges, including the rapidlyindustrializing regions within China and India.)As described in Chapter 1, sustainable developmentmeans simultaneous progress toward broad-based eco-World Resources 1992-9341

4 Rapidly Industrializing Countriesnomic development, increased human developmentand stable populations, a secure ecological base, andtechnology that is efficient and sparing of natural resources.Although by no means a homogeneousgroup, the RICs generally have made rapid economicprogress. These six countries had gross national product(GNP) growth rates well above the world averagein the 1970s. Some slipped during the economic stagnationof the 1980s, but all have productive natural resourcesand growing industrial sectors, includingenergy production, manufacturing, and transportation.Progress toward reducing absolute poverty andnarrowing income inequality has been impressive butless even, with income inequality remaining a seriousproblem in some countries. The RICs have also madeprogress on human dimensions—improving healthcare and education and moving toward stable populations—butmuch remains to be done.The RICs have been least successful along the ecologicaland technological dimensions of sustainable development.The RICs have abundant natural resources,but those riches—their forest and soil reserves, for example—arebeing rapidly depleted. These countriesalso face new environmental challenges from urbanizationand industrial growth. They need to improvetheir energy efficiency, develop nonfossil energy resourceswhere possible, reduce air and water pollution,and encourage new technologies that minimizeor prevent pollution. The importance of these aspectsof sustainable development—and the costs of ignoringthem—are graphically illustrated by the environmentaldisasters that Central Europe now confronts. (SeeChapter 5, "Regional Focus: Central Europe.") In lessdramatic form, the same lessons emerge from the experienceof the most recent group of countries to makethe leap to industrial economies.THE NIC EXPERIENCEOver the past few decades, the world has seen thestunning transformation of Hong Kong, Singapore, theRepublic of Korea (South Korea), and Taiwan from impoverisheddeveloping countries into bustling, expandingeconomies. Since 1965, these four economies,known collectively as the newly industrializing countries(NICs) or the four "dragons" or "tigers" of Asia,have quadrupled their share of world production andtrade (l) and quintupled their per capita incomes (2).Between 1965 and 1986, the per capita GNP in eachone grew at least 6 percent per year; Japan and theUnited States, by comparison, registered annual increasesof 4.3 and 1.6 percent, respectively, duringthese years (3). (For the sake of simplicity, the NICs areconsidered here to be nations, although by some measuresthey are not all full-fledged nations. Only Singaporeand South Korea, for example, are members ofthe United Nations. Hong Kong is a colony of theUnited Kingdom until 1997, when it will become partof China. China also claims Taiwan. Moreover, HongKong and Singapore are essentially city-states and donot confront many of the sharp rural-urban divisionscharacteristic of most developing countries.)The NIC record is seriously flawed, however. Thegrowth that these countries achieved came at the expenseof severe environmental degradation, just as ithad in the United States and Japan. Industrial air andwater pollution in Taiwan, for example, has been so severethat it has damaged crop yields and poses risks tohuman health. In 1989, a group of environmentalistsand academics released a major report on balancingTaiwan's economic growth and environmental protection."Taiwan is now in a time of transition with respectto environmental management. In the 1950s,1960s, and early 1970s economic growth was given priorityover environmental issues almost without question.... If we continue to allow the harmful byproductsof advanced industrial production systems topenetrate every cell of the body of the island of Taiwan,complete recovery will be impossible, and partialrecovery will entail very great cost" (4).Virtually all rivers on the island are polluted in theirlower reaches, with most of them heavily polluted (5).Less than 1 percent of human waste receives primarysewage treatment. Probably as a result, the island hasthe highest incidence of hepatitis B in the world (6).Taiwan is one of the top users of pesticides and fertilizersper hectare in the world, and this load contributesto the contamination of surface water andground water (7). Emissions of nitrogen oxides frommotor vehicles in Taiwan tripled between 1977 and1985 and may double again by the end of this decade(8). Pollution is bad enough to make the air hazardousto breathe on 62 days a year (9); asthma cases amongchildren have quadrupled in the last decade (10). Thus,even though access to health care has improved,health itself can be undermined by environmental degradation.In South Korea, the situation is not much better. InAugust 1989, government investigators discoveredthat a significant portion of the tap water in the countryis unfit to drink—contaminated with heavy metalsand other pollutants, a problem that will require $5.3billion to fix (11). Only one quarter of the country's sewageis treated (12). With some industrial complexes dischargingeffluents directly into the ocean, fishing groundshave also suffered: by the early 1980s, Masan Bay wasoff limits for fishing and shellfishing, and Inchon Harborhad been closed to commercial fishing (13).Groundwater is being polluted with pesticide andfertilizer runoff, because South Korea, like Taiwan, isone of the heaviest users of these agricultural inputsper hectare in the world (14).Air pollution from the industrial and commercialsectors and from motor vehicles has earned Seoulfourth place on the World Health Organization's list ofmajor cities with the worst sulfur dioxide ratings.Crop yields on farms near factories have also been reducedby air pollution, and several industries in onearea were ordered to compensate nearby farmers fortheir losses (15).42World Resources 1992-93

Rapidly Industrializing Countries 4In addition, like the rest of the industrial world, theNICs for a long time paid scant attention to the needfor more efficient use of energy and other natural resources.In Singapore and South Korea, commercial energyconsumption per dollar of GNP is among thehighest in the world. In 1989, for example, South Koreaconsumed 18 megajoules of commercial energy perdollar of GNP, higher than the U.S. level of 15 megajoulesper dollar and nowhere near as efficient asJapan's 5 megajoules. (See Chapter 21, "Energy andMaterials," Table 21.2.) And Hong Kong's air qualityhas deteriorated with industrial growth and increasingenergy use. A 1988 World Health Organization studyof 33 major cities showed Hong Kong to be one of onlysix cities in which sulfur dioxide levels were increasing(16).The NICs are therefore not a model of sustainable development,even though they are often cited as amodel of economic development. Yet they have donewell in stabilizing their populations, in spreading educationand access to health care, in improving incomedistribution, and (in South Korea and Taiwan) in landreform—that is, in the human and economic dimensionsof sustainable development that are beyond thenarrow measure of economic growth. It is in theseareas that their experience does indeed hold importantlessons for other developing countries concerned withstimulating economic growth and achieving a moresustainable development path.Attention in the NICs was directed early to educationand health care. In South Korea, for example, theliteracy rate rose from 30 percent in 1953 to 80 percentin 1963. By 1965, the nation was spending more onhuman resource development than the average forcountries with GNPs three times as large (17), creatinga relatively well educated and healthy work force thatserved as the foundation for industrialization. Reflectingin part this high level of investment in human resources,South Korea's population growth rate declinedfrom 3.04 percent in 1955-60 (18) to 0.95 percentin 1985-90. (See Chapter 16, "Population and HumanDevelopment," Table 16.1.)The successes of the two NICs that are not city-stateswere preceded by extensive land reform in the late1940s and 1950s. In Taiwan during the late 1940s, thegovernment imposed ceilings on landholdings andpurchased excess land at below-market prices, eliminatingTaiwan's landed elite (19). Between 1949 and1953, one quarter of the privately held farmlandchanged hands; the share of families owning some orall of the land they worked rose to 88 percent (20). InSouth Korea, the land reform that had been promisedin the late 1940s was finally carried out under proddingfrom the U.S. Government after the outbreak ofthe Korean War in the summer of 1950. Althoughmore than 40 percent of the land scheduled for redistributionstayed in former owners' hands, the percentageof farm families that were tenants dropped from 86percent in 1945 to 26 percent 1960 (21). These reformslaid the basis for better income distribution in bothcountries, roughly equalizing rural and urban incomes(22). Equitable income distribution helped strengthendomestic markets. In Taiwan, this created a decentralizedpattern of industrialization (23). Countless smalltomedium-size industries sprang up to serve the needsof the rural population, including provision of agriculturalinputs and processing. By 1961, only 16 percentof industrial jobs were located in Taipei, the capital.The NICs, by laying an adequate foundation with investmentsin human development and with improvedsharing of the benefits of economic growth, did increasethe welfare of current generations. Environmentalproblems, however, could hinder their ability tomeet the needs of future generations.If the RICs are to match the economic successes ofthe Asian dragons, they need to invest heavily inhuman development and in broad-based economic development.If they are to avoid the problems of theNICs (and of other industrial countries before them),they also need to protect their ecological base and investin more efficient technology.HUMAN DEVELOPMENTThe six RICs examined here have unquestionablymade progress in improving the health and educationof their populations over the past 20 years, althoughthere are significant country-by-country variations.(See Boxes 4.1 to 4.6.) Between 77 and 93 percent of theadult population of the RICs is literate, for example,compared to an average of 65 percent for all developingcountries. (See Figure 4.1.) The child mortality rate(an indicator of the general health of a population) is alsobetter in the RICs than the developing country average.Concerted government policies to support educationcan make a difference. In Indonesia, such efforts overthe last decade have meant that virtually all childrenof primary school age now attend school—one of themost successful cases of large-scale school system expansionon record, according to the World Bank (24).However, only about 48 percent of those eligible forFigure 4.1 Adult Literacy Rates, 1970 and 1990(percentage of population)100 -60 i4020 - -o -^—i—BrazilChileMexico1970 1990MalaysiaIndonesiaDevelopingThailand CountriesSource: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Human DevelopmentReport 1991 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991), Table 4,pp. 126-127.World Resources 1992-9343

4 Rapidly Industrializing CountriesBox 4.1 MalaysiaOver the past few decades Malaysia hasmade outstanding progress in economicgrowth and in raising standards of healthand education while reducing poverty.Economic growth has averaged 6-7 percentannually over the past two decades.(See Chapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators,"Table 15.1.) Per capita productionhas far outstripped the developing countryaverage. (See Figure 1.)The Malaysian Government, a constitutionalmonarchy, has encouraged privateindustry to provide economic growthwhile devoting a relatively high share ofpublic resources to human services suchas health, education, and reduction of poverty.Of the three Asian rapidly industrializingcountries (RICs), Malaysia has thesmallest percentage of population belowthe poverty line (26 percent) (l) and thehighest gross national product (GNP) percapita ($2,130) and spends the largest percentageof its GNP on human services (2).(See Chapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators,"Table 15.1.) These expenditures arehaving an effect: life expectancy, for example,has increased from 63 to nearly 71years since the early 1970s. (See Chapter16, "Population and Human Development,"Table 16.2.) Virtually all Malaysianchildren attend primary school and morethan half also attend secondary school.These are remarkable achievements for acountry formed in the early 1960s amidst acivil war and severe racial tensions (3).Once dependent on commodities suchas palm oil, rubber, timber, and oil, for exportearnings Malaysia's economy now increasinglyrelies on manufacturing. Theelectronics industry has led the way; Malaysiais now the world's biggest exporterof semiconductor devices (4).The government officially encouragespopulation growth (5), yet growth rateshave been relatively modest and birthrates have been falling. Some 92 percent ofthe urban population and 68 percent ofthose in rural areas have access to cleanwater supplies. (See Chapter 16, "Populationand Human Development," Tables16.1 and 16.4.)Malaysia is well endowed with naturalresources, from tropical forests to offshoreoil fields. More than half of Malaysia'smerchandise exports are still primaryproducts such as timber and oil. Both thegovernment and citizens' groups are beginningto define sustainable developmentplans. The government's forest managementsystem on the Malay Peninsula, forinstance/is considered one of the few examplesof sustainable forestry in the world(6). Nevertheless, in outlying regions suchas Sabah and Sarawak, where local officialscontrol large concessions, forests arebeing rapidly cut. In addition to damagingnatural resources, deforestation threatensthe livelihood of native peoples (7).References and Notes1. Calculations based on United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, Human DevelopmentReport 1991 (Oxford University Press,New York, 1991), Table 3, p. 124; andChapter 16, "Population and Human Development,Table 16.1.2. United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report 1991 (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1991), Table3.1, p. 41.3. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), MalaysiaCountry Profile 1990-91 (EIU, London,1990), p. 4.4. Carl Goldstein, "Chips of Change," FarEastern Economic Review (September 7,1989), p. 98.5. Op. cit. 3, p. 8.6. Duncan Poore, "Overview," in Natural ForestManagement pr Sustainable Timber Production(International Institute forEnvironment and Development, London,1988), pp. 17-18.7. "The Dwindling Forest beyond Long San,"The Economist (August 18,1990), pp. 23-24.Figure 1 Gross National Product Figure 3 Mortality of ChildrenPer Capita Under Age 5(US. dollars)3.0002.000MalaysiaDeveloping Countries1970 1976 1980 1086Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).Figure 2 Total Fertility Rate(total fertility rate)6-5-2— Malaysia Developing Countries1970 1876 1960 1985Source;The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).Note: The total rate is an estimate of the number of children that anaverage woman would have if current age specific fertility ratesremained constant during her reproductive years.(deaths per 1000 births)2.600-1.500-1.000-600-160-100-60-MalaysiaDeveloping Countries1970 1976 19B0 1986 1990Source: United Nations (U.N.), Mortality of Children Under 5: WorldEstimates and Projections (U.N., New York, 1988), pp. 30-31.Figure 4 Energy Consumption PerCapita(gigajoules per capita)60-50-40-20-10MalaysiaDeveloping Countries1970 1976 I960 1986Source: United Nations Statistical Office, UN. Energy Tape (UnitedNations, New York, May 1991),44World Resources 1992-9:

Rapidly Industrializing Countries 4secondary school were enrolled in 1988 (25) (26). Ashortage of skilled laborers and qualified managersconstrains the expansion of domestic businesses (27),and so further public and private investment in educationcould yield substantial benefits.In Malaysia, virtually all children of primary schoolage are also registered for classes, but Malaysian childrenare more likely to continue their schooling, with57 percent enrolled in secondary schools (28). Thecountry's relatively high level of education, healthcare, and basic services is the result of government decisionsin the 1970s to invest in these areas and to alleviaterural poverty (29). (See Box 4.1, Malaysia.)Chile, too, has made considerable progress inhuman development. Life expectancy at birth is nearlyequal to that in the United States, the infant mortalityrate is one of the lowest in the developing world, andthe overall literacy rate of 93 percent is impressive (30).Improvements in human development, to be effective,need to be coupled with progress in other dimensionsof sustainable development. Mexico, for example,has a high literacy rate and has made great progressover the last 25 years in increasing the proportionof Mexicans who receive secondary and higher education.Yet the pressures of poverty, compounded in the1980s by economic stagnation, have meant that manywho start school cannot afford to stay: a United Nationsstudy noted that more than 5 million children droppedout of primary school between 1982 and 1988 (31).Moreover, rapidly growing populations mean thateconomies must continue to increase the resourcesthey invest in education, health, and housing needs.Even though all the RICs except Indonesia have dramaticallylowered their population growth rates overthe past four decades, the rates still translate into annualadditions of 3 million in Brazil and 1.8 million inMexico. (See Chapter 16, "Population and Human Development,"Table 16.1.)Here again, government policies can make a profounddifference. In Thailand, where the governmentlaunched a vigorous family planning program in 1971(32), the percent of married couples using contraceptivesrose from 14 in 1970 to 68 in the late 1980s andthe average fertility rate fell from 5.4 in 1970 to 2.5 in1990 (33) (34). In Indonesia, the share of married couplesusing contraceptives rose from 18 percent in the late1970s to 48 percent a decade later, helped by a familyplanning program strongly supported by the government(35). (See Chapter 16, "Population and HumanDevelopment," Tables 16.2 and 16.6.)Birth rates have been falling in Malaysia since thelate 1950s, although not through any campaign of thegovernment, which is one of the few to actively promotepopulation growth. The government providestax incentives for larger families (36). Nevertheless, asincomes improved and as education and health carebecame more widely available, the average fertilityrate dropped from 5.4 in 1970 to 13.3 in 1990 (37). (SeeBox 4.1, Figure 2.)Many of the RICs are finding new ways to promotefamily planning. Mass media—radio, television, andnewspapers—can all present family planning informationeffectively. At the Pro-Pater male health clinics inthree Brazilian cities, a mass media vasectomy campaignresulted in an 80 percent increase in the averagenumber of vasectomies performed monthly, a 97 percentincrease in the number of new clients visiting theclinics, and a 174 percent increase in the number oftelephone inquiries about vasectomy (38).BROADENING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTAlleviating poverty and extreme income disparitiesare central to sustainable development. The RICs stillhave much to do in this regard, although some ofthese countries are making significant progress. Others,especially in Latin America, lost ground duringthe economic stagnation of the 1980s.In Mexico, for example, income disparities widenedduring the 1980s. According to the government's owndefinition, about half the country suffers from poverty(39). Among the RICs, the need to tackle income disparitiesmay be greatest in Brazil. (See Box 4.2, Brazil.) Anestimated 58 percent of all Brazilians (or almost 90 millionout of a total population of 150 million) are eitherpoor or indigent, according to government standards(40). Rapid creation of new jobs is the key to reducingincome inequalities.Ownership of land in Brazil is also among the mostconcentrated in the world, a situation that has led togrowing violence between large landowners and ruralworkers' unions (41). Nearly 11 million Brazilians whowork the land have either holdings too small to supporttheir families or no land at all. Two percent of allfarms are holdings of more than 1,000 hectares, accountingfor 57 percent of the agricultural land, whereas30 percent of the farms are smaller than 1 hectareand together occupy just 1 percent of the farmland.Much of the farmland in large landholdings is held asa real estate investment rather than used productively(42). Recent attempts to expropriate and redistributeland have been generally ineffective (43). The NIC experiencesuggests that land reform would accelerate economicgrowth, as well as help combat poverty.In Thailand, some 40 percent of agricultural land isuntitled. One World Bank study found that only a"full, secure, exclusive, and indefinite title to land"would lead to increased investment and productivity.To provide such titles, a program has been in place forseveral years that gives squatters on reserved forestland "rights to farm" for 5-25 years (44). A recent reviewof Thailand's needs and prospects found that ithas the widest disparity between agricultural and nonagriculturalincome of 12 Asian economies, in a countrywhose population remains 80 percent rural (45).In Indonesia, according to the World Bank, the incidenceof poverty was substantially reduced over thelast decade, dropping from 22 percent in 1984 to 17percent in 1987. Credit for this reduction is given togovernment policies that protected the agricultural sectorduring structural adjustment, to trade reform andindustrial deregulation, which spurred private sectorWorld Resources 1992-9345

4 Rapidly Industrializing CountriesBox 4.2 BrazilBrazil's "economic miracle" occurred mostdramatically in the late 1960s and early1970s and then continued at a somewhatslower pace through the 1970s when averageannual growth in real gross nationalproduct (GNP) was an impressive 8.4 percent.By 1978, Brazil was producing steel,petrochemicals, pulp and paper, fertilizers,and nonferrous metals plus otherbasic raw materials. However, in the 1980s(1979-89), growth turned sluggish, averagingjust 2.7 percent annually. (See Chapter15, "Basic Economic Indicators," Table 15.1.)In the 1980s, a series of external shocks—a massive rise in oil prices, increasedworld interest rates, and a recessionamong major trading partners—underminedthe growth of the previous two decades.Brazil's external debt problemsgrew worse, causing the government toseek help from the International MonetaryFund and international commercial banks.Chronic problems with inflation worsenedin the 1980s (l). The election in March 1990of Fernando Collor de Mello to Brazil'spresidency marked a return to peaceful directelections and a resurgence of interestin a private market economy. Nevertheless,economic problems worsened. In 1990, theeconomy shrank by 4.3 percent, while inflationapproached 3,000 percent (2).Brazil's two-decade record of economicgrowth, though impressive, was notshared by most of the country's population.The government has shown little willingnessto undertake land reform or redirectresources to combat the country'sextensive poverty (3). Income disparitieshave long been among the worst in theworld, and the problem has worsenedsince 1980. By 1988, GNP per capita wasestimated to be $2,160 annually, yet for thelowest 40 percent of households it wasonly $350 (4). Government spending reinforcedthis pattern: over one quarter of nationalincome has been channeled throughthe government budget, yet less than 2percent of GNP goes into human priorityconcerns (5). The pattern of land ownershipis similarly skewed.Brazil's growth has inflicted severe costson its environment, especially in the AmazonBasin, the world's largest remainingtropical forest and a critical source of globalbiological diversity. Since the 1960s, aseries of ambitious plans to develop andcolonize the Amazon Basin have taken aheavy toll on the forest environment andmet with mixed success economically.In 1988, Brazil announced a new policydesigned to protect the environment oftribal peoples and other forest dwellers, suspendsubsidies for cattle ranching and otherenterprises, create new national parks andnational forests, and implement agroeco-logicalzoning (6). President Collor has strengthenedenvironmental protections, creating anew environmental secretariat, suspendingsubsidies that encourage deforestation andbanning the export logs. Although criticssay many features of the 1960s developmentpolicies are continuing, a combinationof new policies and economicrecession has slowed deforestation (7). TheBrazilian Government estimated deforestationin the Amazon at about 1.4 million hectaresin 1990, down from 1.8 million in1988-89 and well be-low a mean annual deforestationrate of 2.2 million hectares for1979-90. (See Chapter 19, "Forests andRangelands," Table 19.1.)Brazilian policymakers seem increasinglyinterested in developing a modelthat synthesizes development and protectionin the Amazon Basin. A May 1991draft of a proposed government pilot programto protect Brazil's tropical forestslisted biodiversity and carbon sequestra-Figure 1 Gross National ProductPer Capita(U3,0S. dollars]3.5oo-2,600-2,000-1,500-1,000-500-/ /BrazilDeveloping Countries970 1975 1980 1985tion (which helps control global warming)as reasons to justify aid to Brazil from theinternational community (8). Such a "globalbargain" is likely to gain increased internationalattention, especially when Brazilhosts the United Nations Conference onEnvironment and Development in 1992.References and Notes1. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), BrazilCountry Profile 1990- 91 (EIU, London,1990), pp. 10 and 13.2. The World Bank, Trends in Developing Economies1991 (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991), p. 57.3. Ben Ross Schneider, "Brazil under Collor:Anatomy of a Crisis," World Policy Journal,Vol. viii, No. 2 (Spring 1991), p. 327.4. Op. cit. 2, Table 17, p. 152.5. United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report 1991 (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1991), p. 6.6. Kenton Miller and Laura Tangley, Trees ofLife: Saving Tropical Forests and Their BiologicalWealth (Beacon Press, Boston, 1991), pp.55-57.7. David Cleary, The Brazilian Rainforest: Politics,Financing, Mining, and the Environment(The Economist Intelligence Unit, London,1991), pp. 28-30.8. Kenton Miller, Director, Program in Forestryand Biodiversity, World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personalcommunication).Figure 3 Mortality of ChildrenUnder Age 5(dea ths per 1000 births)15010050— Brazil Developing Countries197C 1976 1980 1985 1990Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Wash-Source: United Nations (U.N.), Mortality of Children Under 5: Worldington, D.C., 1991). Estimates and Projections (U.N., New York, 1988), pp. 30-31.Figure 2 Total Fertility Rate(to al ertility rate)6-5-4-3-2- - Brazil -- Developing Countries1970 1975 1980 1986Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).Figure 4 Energy Consumptionp e r Capita(glgajoules per capita)60-50-40-30-20-10-BrazilDeveloping Countries1970 1976 1080 1085Source: United Nations Statistical Office, U.N. Energy Tape (UnitedNations, New York, May 1991).46World Resources 1992-93

Rapidly Industrializing Countries 4efficiency, and to the maintenance of preexisting levelsof expenditure on poverty-related programs whenother public expenditures were being cut (46). Povertyalleviation remains a government priority (47). Similarprogress in poverty alleviation has been recorded inMalaysia: by 1987, just under 20 percent of the populationin rural areas, and 4.5 percent in the cities, wereliving below the poverty line (48).A trend to open RIC economies in Latin America tooutside investment and trade and to sell governmentownedcompanies to private interests may help tostimulate economic development in the 1990s.CONSERVING NATURAL RESOURCESAlthough the RICs have expanded their industrial sectorsrapidly in the last two decades, they are still highlydependent on the products of their natural resourcebase. Some 46-90 percent of their merchandise exportscontinue to be primary products, including fuels, minerals,and metals. (See Figure 4.2.) Malaysia, for example,earns more than $2 billion per year from timber exports(49). In addition, a disproportionate share of employmentis in areas, such as agriculture, that dependcritically on the health of resources such as soil andwater. In Malaysia, 31 percent of the labor force is stillinvolved with agriculture; in Indonesia, the figure is54 percent (50).Protection of resources therefore remains paramountin the RICs' efforts to achieve sustainable development.And given the wealth of biological diversity containedin many of the RICs, conservation of these genetic resourcesis important for future generations.Figure 4.2 Percent Share of MerchandiseExports that are Primary Products(percentage of merchandise exports)AgricultureFailure to protect resources entails high costs. In Indonesia,for example, soil erosion stemming from deforestationis a critical problem in 36 of 125 river basins. Onthe island of Java, at least one third of cultivated mountainousareas are eroding seriously, with some 1 millionhectares rendered useless for farming at a cost of$350 million to $410 million per year in lost agriculturalproductivity and damage to reservoirs, harbors,and irrigation sites (51).As discussed in Chapter 1, scarce resources shouldbe treated as if they were scarce, not as if they werefree. Numerous studies have pointed out the problemscreated by below-cost pricing of irrigation water for example(52). The water is overused and wasted as a result.A study by the Thailand Development ResearchInstitute concluded that "full-cost pricing of water . ..is an indispensable component of the policy packagefor resolving resource conflicts, averting growth-constrainingshortages, and improving efficiency and incomedistribution" (53).Subsidies are also used to promote practices that degradethe environment, such as the use of pesticides.In Indonesia, high pesticide use led to the spread ofthe rice-crop-destroying brown planthopper by killingits natural predators. In 1986, the Indonesian governmentreduced pesticide subsidies and began to pro-100-80-60-40-20-1965 1989Brazil Mexico MalaysiaChile Indonesia ThailandSource: The World Bank, World Development Report 1991 (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1991), Table 16, p. 234-235.mote integrated pest management (IPM) to deal withpests by using environmentally safe biological methods.In early 1989, the government withdrew pesticidesubsidies entirely. Since 1986, farmers trained in IPMhave reduced pesticide applications from 4.5 to 0.5 perseason while rice yields increased. In addition, decreasedpesticide imports have saved the country more than$100 million per year (54) (55). (See Box 4.3, Indonesia.)ForestsTropical deforestation rates are still extremely high. InIndonesia, the deforestation rate has quadrupled since1970 (56); 1 million hectares of rainforest are now destroyedannually. Forest loss slowed in Brazil in 1988and 1989 to about 1.4 million hectares annually in theAmazon region. In Thailand, where forests covered 55percent of the land surface as recently as 1961, theynow cover only 28 percent (57). (See Box 4.4, Thailand.)In Mexico, the annual loss is estimated at 1 million hectares.In Chile, 75 percent of the forests designated forsustained yield production and 57 percent designatedfor protection have already been cleared (58). (SeeChapter 19, "Forests and Rangelands," Table 19.2.)Deforestation stems from a variety of causes, and soa range of policies will be required to preserve the forestresources. In Thailand, the government banned loggingin January 1989. The effort has met with onlymixed success; a government report found that nearly40,000 hectares of forest had been wiped out and encroachedon by the following year. Local environmentalgroups have declared the ban a failure (59). A recentstudy of the country's natural resources concludedthat "any attempts to halt deforestation and to acceleratereforestation must deal with poverty first, or atleast concurrently. Otherwise, the plan is bound tofail" (60).Indonesia has followed a more phased approach.Seeking to slow forest loss and to stimulate domesticindustries such as furniture production that add valueWorld Resources 1992-9347

4 Rapidly Industrializing CountriesBox 4.3 IndonesiaSpread across an archipelago of more than13,000 islands, Indonesia is the world'sfifth most populous nation. Although thecountry is developing an industrial sector,most of its growth is still based on naturalresources (primarily oil, natural gas, timber,fish, and agricultural products) (l).Like those of Malaysia and Thailand,Indonesia's economy has grown steadilyover the past two decades, averaging a 7.1percent annual increase in real gross nationalproduct in the 1970s and a 6.5 percentincrease in the 1980s. (See Chapter 15,"Basic Economic Indicators," Table 15.1.)Growth of per capita production, as shownin Figure 1, was similar to the average forall developing countries through the early1980s. A fall in world oil prices contributedto a nearly 20 percent decline in per capitaGNP between 1982 and 1989. Indonesia'seconomy slowed slightly in 1991, but it isconsidered an attractive country for foreigninvestment because of its stable government,low labor and land costs, and a populationthat provides Asia's third largestmarket (after China and India) (2).Two decades ago, Indonesia was one ofthe poorest countries in the world. Withthe help of relatively broad-based economicdevelopment policies, the proportionof people living below the povertyline has fallen considerably (althoughmany people still have incomes onlyslightly above the poverty line, and the incidenceof poverty remains much higherin the eastern parts of the archipelago) andthe number of children enrolled in primaryschools has increased (3). However,Indonesia still lags behind its neighbors bymany measures: life expectancy at birthhas increased dramatically since the early1970s but still is below the average forAsia. Mortality of children under five,now estimated at 99 per 1,000, is slightlyabove the regional average of 94. (SeeChapter 16, "Population and Human Development,"Tables 16.2 and 16.3.)By 1988, it was estimated that 60 percentof urban residents and 40 percent of ruralresidents had access to safe drinkingwater. (See Table 16.4.) The governmenthas launch-ed a major initiative to makesafe water more accessible to the poor by,for instance, increasing the number ofstandpipes and deregulating the sale ofwater in Jakarta (4). As part of a campaignfor preventive health care, 320,000 watersupply projects were completed between1983-84 and 1988-89 (5).The country has made some effort to improveenvironmental management: it hasa state environment minister, laws requiringenvironmental impact assessment ofall ma-jor development projects, and a programto introduce integrated pest management(6). Nevertheless serious problemsremain. Deforestation, which is occurringat a rate of about 1 million hectaresannually, has claimed large areas of forestand caused serious soil erosion problems.(See Chapter 19, "Forests and Range—lands," Table 19.1.) Settlers, many ofwhom are moved to the outer islandsthrough ansmigration project partiallyfunded by the World Bank, enter foreststhrough logging roads and contribute toforest loss through slash-and-burn agriculturalpractices. To slow deforestation andto strengthen the domestic wood processingindustry, Indonesia banned the exportof raw logs in 1985 (7). It also banned thepractice of clear-cutting forests and starteda large-scale tree-planting program. Butcritics say that logging operations are expectedto expand greatly in the 1990s, thatabout 400,000 hectares of forest are losteach year because of wasteful loggingFigure 1 Gross National ProductPer Capita(US. dollars)1,6001,000Indonesia" Developing Countries1970 1975 1600 1666practices, fire, and illegal cutting, that almostall loggers ignore logging regulations(8), and that the tree-plantingprogram has in some cases replaced complexforest ecosystems with fast-growingspecies in monoculture plantations (9).References and Notes1. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), IndonesiaCountry Profile 1990-91 (EIU, London,1990), p. 16.2. Adam Schwarz, "Growth Strains Superstructure,"Far Eastern Economic Review(April 18,1991), p. 36.3. United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report 1991 (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1991), p. 60.4. The World Bank, Indonesia: Poverty ^4ssessmentand Strategy Report (The World Bank,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. xv.5. Op. dt. 1, p. 11.6. The World Bank, "Indonesia: Forest, Landand Water: Issues in Sustainable Development"(draft), The World Bank, Washington,D.C., June 5,1989, p. viii.7. Op. dt. 1, p. 33.8. Peter Halesworth, "Plundering Indonesia'sRainforests," Multinational Monitor (October1990), p. 9.9. Charles V. Barber, Associate, World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1991(personal communication).Figure 3 Mortality of ChildrenUnder Age 5(deaths per 1000 births)16010060Indonesia — Developing Countries970 1975 1960 1985 1900Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Wash- Source: United Nations (U.N.), Mortality of Children Under 5: Worldington, D.C., 1991). Estimates and Projections (U.N., New York, 1988), pp. 30-31.Figure 2 Total Fertility Rateitcta: fertility rate)6-) noonesia eveooing ooun nes5-4-32970 1875 1980 1985Source: The World Bank, unpubiished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991}.Figure 4 Energy ConsumptionPer Capita(gigajojles par capita)60 -—- Indonesia -•• Daveloping Countries3,000-2,600-2,000-500-50-40-30-20-_-. — — " - — " "10 •0 -L-, r—i 1 1 r—r 1 1 1 1—i 1 1 1 1 • < 1 H1970 1975 1980 1985Source: United Nations Statistical Office, U.N. Energy Tape {UnitedNations, New York, May 1991).48World Resources 1992-93

Rapidly Industrializing Countries 4Box 4.4 ThailandThailand built its economic wealth on itsabundant natural resources (includingteak, fish, rice, and tin) but now gets anincreasing share of its gross national product(GNP) from manufacturing and services(l).In several cases, Thailand nearly destroyedthe resource base that fueled itsgrowth. Logging reduced Thailand's forestcover from 55 percent of the country in1961 to about 28 percent by 1988. Deforestationleft large areas of bare soil, contributingto mud slides, floods, and loss oflife. As a result of the disastrous floods,Thailand banned logging as of January1989. But reforestation efforts still fallshort of the goal of 40 percent forest cover.The Thai fishing fleet, which brings in theworld's third largest catch, has decimatedfish populations in the Gulf of Thailandand can maintain its catch only by buildinglarger vessels that go further offshore.The rapid expansion of brackish waterprawn culture on the southeast coast hasled to the widespread destruction of mangroveforests (2) (3).The natural beauty of Thailand's coastlinehelps make tourism Thailand's leadingsource of foreign exchange (4). Althoughtourism may provide an incentiveto protect scenic areas, it also causes pollutionin resort towns such as Pattaya (5).Thailand is more ethnically homogeneousthan the other Asian rapidly industrializingcountries (RICs), Malaysia andIndonesia. All but 5 percent of the populationis made up of Thai-speaking Buddhists.Since the 1930s, the country hasmostly been ruled by a succession of militarygovernments; in 1988, Thailand electedits first prime minister in 12 years,suggesting that democracy may be maturing(6).Thailand has invested heavily in humandevelopment. Literacy now stands at 90percent for women and 96 percent formen, comparable to that of South Korea.As Figure 3 indicates, deaths of childrenunder five have dropped from 91 per1,000 in 1970 to 39 per 1,000 in 1990, farbelow the Asian average of 94. Assisted bya vigorous family planning program andrising living standards, Thailand has undergonea demographic transition tolower birth rates (7). (See Chapter 16, "Populationand Human Development," Table16.3.)Thailand has branched into labor-intensiveindustries such as integrated circuitand electronics assembly, footwear manufacturing,toy making, and textiles. Suchindustries have attracted considerable investmentfrom Japan and Taiwan. Agriculture,still an important economic sector,employs the largest number of people, 18million, or perhaps 70 percent of the workforce (8) (9). Northern rural areas are considerablypoorer and have fewer servicesthan metropolitan Bangkok (with 8.5 millionpeople). On the other hand, Bangkokis choked by traffic and pollution, has nomass transit, and is home to at least 1 millionsquatters and slum dwellers (10).Energy use, and especially electricityuse, is growing rapidly. More efficient energypractices could ease the pressures foradditional energy supplies (See Chapter10, "Energy".) Thailand has considerableFigure 1 Gross National ProductPer Capita3,000-2,500 -2,000 -Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).Figure 2 Total Fertility Rate(total fertility rate)6-6-a-2••— Trielle no070 1875Source: The World Bankington,D.C.,1991).— Developing Countries1980 1885reserves of natural gas, a clean-burningfuel that could be tapped for both domesticuse and exported in liquefied form di).References and Notes1. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU),Thailand, Burma Country Profile 1990-91(EIU, London, 1990), p. 8.2. Void., pp. 15-16.3. Theodore Panayotou and ChartchaiParasuk, land and Forest: Projecting Demandand Managing Encroachment (Thailand DevelopmentResearch Institute, AmbassadorCity, Jomtien, Chon Buri, Thailand, 1990),Appendix B, p. 74.4. Op. cit. 1, p. 22.5. Op. tit.1, p. 22.6. Op. tit.1, pp. 4-5, and 7.7. Op. tit.1, p. 6.8. The World Bank, Trends in Developing Economies1991 (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991), p. 521.9. Op. tit.1, pp. 13 and 20.10. Op. cit. 1, pp. 6-8.11. Op. cit. 1, p. 18.Figure 3 Mortality of ChildrenUnder Age 5(dea hs psr 1000 births)300-1160-100-50-o-970-— Thailand1975—-_Davelopine Countries— —1980~ - — _ _19B5 1990Source: United Nations (U.N.), Mortality ot Children Under 5: WorldEstimates and Projections (U.N., New York, 1988), pp. 30-31.Figure 4 Energy ConsumptionPer Capita(gigapule s per capita)90'5030unpublished data (The World Bank, Ws sh-20-10- "~970TnallandDeveloping Countriaa1876 1S80 1805Source: Uniied Nations Statistical Office, UN. Energy Tape (UnitedNations, New York, May 1991).World Resources 1992-9349

4 Rapidly Industrializing CountriesBox 4.5 ChileChile, unlike most countries in LatinAmerica, has followed a consistent exportbasedfree market economic strategy. Firstimplemented under the military rule ofGeneral Augusto Pinochet (1973-90) andcontinued since March 1990 under thedemocratic government of President PatricioAylwin, this strategy helped make thepublic and private sectors more efficientand producers more internationally competitive.Economic growth was strong inthe late 1970s. In the early 1980s, a drasticfall in copper prices (a critical export forChile), a sharp decrease in foreign lending,and the overvaluation of the peso allconspired to send the economy reeling (l).Gross national product per capita fellsharply in the mid-1980s but has recoveredstrongly in the late 1980s. (See Figure 1.)Over the past two decades, the countryhas exploited its natural resources (includingcopper, timber, and fisheries) but hasalso built an industrial base (2).About 80 percent of Chile's 13 millionpeople live in urban areas, includingabout 5 million in the metropolitan regionof Santiago (3). Population growth was estimatedat about 1.7 percent annually in1985-90 and is expected to slow to 1.4 percentin 1995-2000. Standards of health andeducation are high; deaths of childrenunder 5, shown in Figure 3, have declineddramatically, from 79 per 1,000 in 1970 to23 in 1990. Rapid urbanization has causedhousing shortages, however, and manyChileans still live in slums around Santiago(4).Industrial pollution (from mining, smelting,fossil fuel emissions, and paper processing)and urban air and water pollutionhave been largely unregulated in Chile.Thick smog frequently settles over Santiagodue to prevailing winds and the city'slocation surrounded by mountains onthree sides. Produced by the combinationof automobile and bus exhausts, industrialemissions, and dust particles from the severelyeroded surrounding hillsides, airpollution often reaches dangerous levelsduring winter months. Although 90 percentof Santiago is served by sewage lines,none of the sewage is treated. Sewage isdischarged into a river from which irrigationwater is taken—a situation that hascaused outbreaks of typhoid fever (5).The government has estimated thatnearly three fourths of the harmful elementsin Santiago's smog come from thecity's fleet of roughly 14,500 privatelyowned and operated diesel-engine buses.To address the problem, the new Aylwingovernment decided to remove 2,600buses from the streets by buying them.The government also has instituted a licenseplate system that on any given daybars one fifth of the city's private carsfrom coming downtown (6).••r y-. '1i—iUnlike the Pinochet regime, which gaveenvironmental matters a relatively low priority,the Aylwin government has createdan interministerial commission to defineand coordinate environmental policy anda special commission to coordinate effortsto improve environmental conditions inSantiago. It has taken initiatives to traintechnicians in pollution control, exploredmethods of accounting for the role of naturalresources and pollution in its economicplanning, and supported public environmentalawareness activities (7).Although a University of Chile studyfound ample room for energy conservationin housing and transportation, notmuch has been done to encourage suchconservation. Chile is developing largeFigure 1 Gross National ProductPer Capita(U.S. dollar*}3,3001,5003,000-2.500-2,000-1,000-soo1B70CWte1975/D*v*tof*>gCouitrtMA1980 IMSSource: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).Figure 2 Total Fertility Ratehydropower resources, which will helplimit its dependence on imported oil andavoid additional air pollution, but thus farnone of Chile's electric utilities has adoptedany major conservation activities (8).References and Notes1. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU),Chile Country Profile 1990- 91 (EIU, London,1990), pp. 10-12.2. Ibid.3. Ibid., p. 8.4. Ibid., p. 8.5. Walter Arensberg, Mary Louise Higgins,Rafael Asenjo et al., "Environment and NaturalResources Strategy in Chile" (draft),prepared for the U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment/Chile, World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C.,November 8,1989, pp. 33-34.6. Eugene Robinson, "Chile Weighs FreeMarket's Costs," Washington Post (November13,1991), p. A24.7. Walter Arensberg, Deputy Director, Centerfor International Development and Environment,World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personal communication).8. Michael Philips, Energy Conservation Activitiesin Latin America and the Caribbean (InternationalInstitute forEnergy Conservation,Washington D.C., 1990), pp. 15-16.Figure 3 Mortality of ChildrenUnder Age 5(deaths per 1000 births)— Chita Developlno Countries1970 1076 1960 18B5 1990Source: United Nations (U.N.), Mortality of Children Under 5: WorldEstimates and Projections (U.N., New York, 1988), pp. 30-31.Figure 4 Energy ConsumptionPer Capita160-100-50-(glgajouie8 per capita)— Chile — Developing Countries80-50-40-30-20-10- —^ - \___—- — — ""- — ^ _ _ _ //97018751980 1866Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank,Washington, D.C., 1991).Source: United Nations Statistical Office, UN. Energy Tape (UnitedNations, New York, May 1991).50World Resources 1992-93

Rapidly Industrializing Countries 4to exported wood products, the government imposeda tax on log exports in 1979, then banned the export ofraw logs in 1985 (61), and, finally, levied a high tax onsawn timber (except in Irian Jaya) that effectivelybanned export of such products. Nevertheless, the deforestationrate has increased in recent years. (62).The Malaysian government has sought to limit deforestationsince introducing the National Forestry Policyin 1978. Under government regulations for the MalayPeninsula, where about 30 percent of the country's timberis harvested, sections of forest are harvested on acycle of 30 years or more, some areas are protectedand only mature trees are felled. According to MikaailKavanagh of the World Wide Fund for Nature, in theMalay Peninsula, use of the forests is closer to beingsustainable than it is in most other tropical rainforests(63). In the outlying Malaysian states of Sabah andSarawak, however, where control is in the hands oflocal officials, deforestation is rampant: Sarawak isnow the source of one half of the world's hardwoodlogs (64). If the pace of logging there is not slowed, accordingto a 1990 report by the International TropicalTimber Organization, all the primary forests open forlogging in the region will be gone in 11 years (65).In June 1991, Brazil's President Fernando Collor deMello permanently suspended tax subsidies that encouragedclearing the Amazon rainforest for cattleranching or farming. Brazil has also agreed to allow$100 million of its debt every year to be exchanged forfinancing of environmental projects such as trainingpark guards or surveying park boundaries (66).Governments can also subsidize reforestation, asChile does. Since 1974, the government has paid a directcash subsidy for reforestation that covers 75 percentof the planting costs. The result has been theestablishment of more than 70,000 hectares of pineplantations per year (67).Air QualityAir quality is another part of the resource base that isbeing degraded in many countries, especially in urbanareas. The severe pollution that envelops Mexico Citynearly year-round can be traced to 36,000 factories and3 million motor vehicles that spew some 5.5 millionmetric tons of contaminants into the air each year (68).A 1988 study showed that over half the newborns inMexico City had lead levels in their blood high enoughto impair neurological and motor-physical development(69). To attack this problem, a pollution controlsystem limits the number of days individuals candrive, but the initial benefits have disappeared in dirtyair as the fleet size continues to grow (70).Kuala Lumpur is starting to experience similar pollutionhazes, partly as the result of industrialization andgrowing motor vehicle fleets. Car sales in Malaysiawere expected to reach 80,000 in 1990, up from 35,000just three years earlier. So far, the government has establishedpollution emission standards only for dieseltrucks (71). Santiago, too, is experiencing dangerouslevels of air pollution in the winter as a result of cars,Table 4.1 Change in Per Capita CommercialEnergy Consumption 1950-89(percent change per year)Country 1950—60 1960—70 1970—80 1980—89BrazilChileMexicoIndonesiaMalaysiaThailandWorld Total5.41.64.19.3X11.33.23.65.13.8-0.5X11.93.05.8-1.24.86.86.27.20.90.72.00.42.63.66.50.4Sources: United Nations (U.N.), Energy Statistics Yearbook 1982 (U.N., NewYork, 1984)., Table 2, pp.50-97, United Nations (U.N.) Energy StatisticsYearbook 1989 (U.N., New York, 1991), Table 2, pp. 32-61Note: Commercial energy consumption calculated on oil equivalent basis.X= not available.factories, and dust that rises from surrounding erodedhillsides (72). (See Box 4.5, Chile.)ENERGY CONSUMPTIONEnergy consumption in the six RICs has skyrocketed,as is usually the case during the industrializationphase of a country's economic development. Table 4.1shows that per capita commercial energy consumptionhas increased at a much higher rate than the world averageover the past 40 years. All six RICs are still belowthe world average per capita consumption of 57gigajoules in 1989. (See Chapter 21, "Energy and Materials,"Table 21.2.)As a country modernizes, consumption of electricitytends to rise. Recent growth in consumption and projectionsof future growth in demand have reacheddaunting proportions in the RICs. In Indonesia, for example,electricity use grew 16 percent annually from1980 to 1987, more than twice the average rate in Asia(73). Yet, the Far Eastern Economic Review reports that "apower shortage is now a major concern for the governmentand would-be investors" (74). In Brazil, the equivalentannual rates were 12 percent from 1970 to 1980and 6.5 percent from 1980 to 1988 (75). Malaysia recentlyraised its forecast of electricity consumption increasesthrough 1995 from 8 percent per year to 12-13percent (76). In Thailand, electricity demand nearly tripledin the 1980s, growing almost twice as fast as governmentplanners had forecast (77).Policies that increase the efficiency with which electricityis used help to moderate this growth demand.One such policy is to reduce or eliminate governmentsubsidies. In oil-exporting countries, for example, energyprices are often kept below the world marketlevel. In a step away from this practice, Indonesia hasnow reduced subsidies for domestic fuel prices (78) toencourage efficiency.USING MORE EFFICIENT TECHNOLOGYIn a rapidly industrializing economy, there is a naturaltendency to focus first on expanding output and onlylater on such seemingly secondary concerns as efficiencyor pollution control. Yet attention to such mattersis critical to "technological leapfrogging" and toWorld Resources 1992-9351

4 Rapidly Industrializing CountriesBox 4.6 MexicoMexico enjoyed steady economic growthin the four decades through 1980. In the1969-79 period, for example, real gross nationalproduct (GNP) increased by an average9.2 percent annually, helped to a largeextent by the discovery and developmentof oil in the late 1970s in the Gulf of Campecheand the states of Tabasco andChiapas 0). (See Chapter 15, "Basic EconomicIndicators," Table 15.1.) However,the fruits of economic growth were notevenly distributed among the populationand the environmental costs (includingurban pollution and deforestation) weresubstantial.In the early 1980s, economic problemsbecame apparent. Massive borrowingdrove Mexico's external debt to unmanageablelevels. This, combined with otherfactors such as economic slowdown in industrialcountries, high international interestrates, and high fiscal deficits at home,led to a crisis in 1982. The government declaredthat it was unable to service thecountry's external debt and subsequentlyimposed strict exchange and trade controls.Inflation accelerated rapidly, approachingalmost 100 percent in 1982 (2).The retrenchment efforts instituted inthe mid-1980s had mixed success. Duringthe 1982-85 period, real wages were reducedby 30 percent, forcing wage earnersto work longer hours or find additionalsources of income, and social expendituresfell on average by 19 percent. Middle-classfamilies, which were most reliant on wageincome, may have proportionately lost themost, but the incidence of poverty rose aswell. There was a rise in infant illness associatedwith nutritional deficiencies, andmore students dropped out of school (3).From 1979 to 1989, real GNP growth increaseda dismal 2 percent annually. (SeeTable 15.1.) However, there were substantialimprovements in broad health indicatorssuch as child mortality rates. (SeeFigure 3.)Since the new administration of PresidentCarlos Salinas de Gortari took officein mid-1988, the government has madeprogress in controlling inflation and restructuringits external debt (4). The economyis beginning to respond to the mostrecent program, which includes some socialand environmental components. Forexample, some polluting industries havebeen closed or fined. From 1988 to January1991,77 new national regulations were issuedon environmental matters. Some $2.5billion will be invested to control air pollutionin Mexico City, with 42 percent of themoney provided by foreign governmentsand multilateral banks (5).Environmental groups are pressuringMexico to toughen enforcement of environmentalstandards. Already a mushroomingof unregulated assembly plantsalong the U.S.-Mexican border has producedserious pollution and substandardliving conditions (6). In response, the Mexicanenvironmental agency (SEDUE) hasworked with the U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency (U.S. EPA) to develop aComprehensive Mexico-United States EnvironmentalBorder Program. Under theprogram, the Mexican Government plansto spend $460 million in 1992-94 in theborder region on water treatment plantsand enforcement actions such as trackingmovements of hazardous wastes (7).Mexico is working towards a free tradeagreement with the United States and Canada.This agreement could stimulate Mexicangrowth by attracting investment andopening rich new markets. Environmentalgroups are concerned that the agreementcould encourage U.S. companies to move toMexico to take advantage of lax environmentalregulations, but Mexican officialsFigure 1 Gross National ProductPer Capita(US. dollars)3,000 •2,500 -2.000 •1.500 •1,000 •600-1970— Mexico1075Developing Countries/ \/ \19B0 1965Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).Figure 2 Total Fertility Rate(to al fertility ratB)e-6-32-970-Mexico1975- Developing Cou1960Irlaa19B5Source: The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1991).contend that new firms will face strict environmentalcodes (8). Others are concernedwith equity issues, such as the fate of 30 millioncampesinos (small farmers), who willnot be able to compete with North Americangrain producers (9).References and Notes1. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU),Mexico Country Profile 1990-91 (EIU, London,1990), p. 4.2. Eliot Kalter and Hoe Ee Khor, "Mexico'sExperience with Adjustment," Finance andDevelopment, Vol. 27, No. 3 (1990), p. 22.3. Nora Lustig, "Economic Crisis, Adjustment,and Living Standards in Mexico,1982-85," World Development, Vol. 18, No.10 (1990), pp. 1336-1338.4. Op. at. 2, pp. 24-25.5. Secretaria de Desarrollo Urbano y Ecologia(SEDUE), Mexico: Towards a Better Environment(SEDUE, Mexico City, 1991), pp. 12-14 and 20-21.6. Larry Reibstein, Tim Padgett, AndrewMurr el al., "A Mexican Miracle?" Newsweek(May 20,1991), pp. 42-45.7. Patrick) Chirinos, "Mexican Integrated EnvironmentalBorder Plan," speech in CiudadJuarez, Mexico (Secretaria deDesarrollo, Urbano y Ecologia, MexicoCity, October 23,1991), pp. 1-13.8. Op. cit. 6.9. Aaron E. Zazueta, Senior Associate, WorldResources Institute, Washington, D.C.,1991 (personal communication).Figure 3 Mortality of ChildrenUnder Age 5(dea50'hs per 1000 births)MexicoDeveloping Countries070 1976 I960 1985 1990Source: United Nations (U.N.), Mortality of Children Under S: WorldEstimates and Projections (U.N., New York, 1988), pp. 30-31,Figure 4 Energy ConsumptionPer Capita(glgajoules per capita]150-100-60-50-40-30- — — ' "20-10-—- Mexico Developing Countries" " "1970 1876 1980 1985Source: United Nations Statistical Office, U.N. Energy Tape (UnitedNations, New York, May 1991),52World Resources 1992-93

Rapidly Industrializing Countries 4avoiding expensive retrofits or cleanups at a later date.When a country's industrial base is expanding rapidly,policies that encourage adoption of the most efficienttechnologies and manufacturing systems minimizewaste and pollutants and can have enormous cumulativebenefits—improving a nation's economic competitiveness,sharply reducing capital needs, andprotecting its environmental quality.There is much room for improving energy efficiencyin the RICs. In Indonesia, preliminary audits in plantsfound that 23 percent of current energy consumptioncould readily be saved and that energy use in newbuildings in Indonesia could be reduced by 50 percentwith investments that would pay for themselves inless than two years on average (79) (80). In Thailand,one assessment of potential savings found that if all industrialplants were as efficient as the best of similarplants elsewhere, the country's industries could save24 percent of current energy consumption (81). In Brazil,which has already made considerable progress inconservation in the last five years, a study found thatinvesting $20 billion in economy-wide efficiency improvementscould cut in half the planned expansion ofnew generating facilities by 2010, at an estimated savingsof $32 billion (82). In Chile, one assessment foundthat there had been little industrial investment in energyefficiency except at the very largest firms, such ascopper companies, and that 70 percent of the homes inSantiago are insufficiently insulated (83).A number of countries are making efforts to introduceefficiency standards for buildings and appliances,to require industries to have energy managementprograms, to provide tax reductions and low-interestloans for the purchase of more efficient equipment,and to set targets for improved efficiency (84).Yet a 1990 review of this field by the International Institutefor Energy Conservation (IIEC) concluded that"most governments of developing countries, whilesupporting the notion of end-use energy efficiency, aremore supportive of conventional energy approachesand have not made major commitments of staff or resourcesto end-use efficiency" (85).In Thailand, an Energy Conservation Center was establishedby the government in 1988, and in late 1989senior officials from all the agencies concerned with energyuse took a study tour of the United States organizedby IIEC. As a result, IIEC reported, "there hasbeen a marked increase in interest throughout the Thaigovernment in pursuing energy efficiency" (86). In February1990, the Cabinet approved a conservationscheme for industry, with limits on electricity usebased on the amount that is needed to produce variousgoods (87).Transportation is another area where policies canhave major energy and environmental impact, particularlyin encouraging alternatives to automobiles andtrucks such as light-rail vehicles like trams or streetcars.Commuter rail networks can also relieve congestionin central cities. In Jakarta, Indonesia, and SaoPaulo, Brazil, suburban rail systems that had beenabandoned in recent years have been upgraded (88).New industrial pollution control technologies can beencouraged by changes in regulatory procedures. Whatis needed are policies that do not entrench existing controltechnologies at the expense of long-term innovationand that encourage pollution and waste preventionrather than "end-of-the-pipe" cleanup technologies (89).Growing urban pollution problems in many RICshave increasingly forced governments to confrontthem. Mexico, for example, is planning to spend $2.5billion to counteract environmental deterioration inthe Mexico City region over the next four years (90).President Carlos Salinas de Gortari has also strengthenedenforcement of pollution control laws since 1989.(See Box 4.6, Mexico.) A new Constitutional Law forEcological Equilibrium and Protection of the Environmenthas been passed, unleaded petrol has been introduced,and the huge Azcapotzalco refinery in MexicoCity and other industrial plants have been closed toimprove air quality. According to the air pollution coordinatorof Mexico City, cleanup efforts will attemptto use the latest technologies so as to leapfrog the standardsof industrial countries (91).In Cubatao, Brazil, a city long known as the Valley ofDeath, state and local officials finally cracked down onindustries that had been flouting pollution control regulations.Since the mid-1980s, these efforts have cut particulateemissions by 72 percent, organic waste by 93percent, and heavy metal discharges by 97 percent (92).NEW MARKETS, NEW PRODUCTSSouth Korea, Taiwan, and other NICs followed a developmentpath that depended on access to markets inindustrialized countries, first for clothing and later forelectronic equipment. For the RICs, however, the economicconditions of the 1990s and the emergence of regionaltrade blocks may necessitate somewhat differenttrade patterns. One example of the new patternsemerging is the negotiations among Canada, theUnited States, and Mexico for a continent-wide freetrade zone (93). Several groupings of Latin Americancountries are seeking to liberalize trade among themselves(94).In the past, cooperative associations of developingcountries have not done much to increase trade amongthemselves. Even the Association of Southeast AsianNations (ASEAN)—consisting of Malaysia, the Philippines,Singapore, Thailand, and Brunei—has been principallysuccessful in trade negotiations with the EuropeanCommunity and in lobbying for greater flows ofdevelopment aid (95). One theme that runs throughoutthe South Commission's Challenge to the South is theneed to change this situation: "South-South co-operationcan provide important new opportunities for developmentbased on geographical proximity, on similaritiesin demand and tastes, on relevance of respectivedevelopment experience, know-how, and skills,and on availability of complementary natural and fi-World Resources 1992-9353

4 Rapidly Industrializing Countriesnancial resources and management and technicalskills" (96).Because of the increasing integration of global marketsand the mobility of investment capital, the RICsface no shortage of industrialization options. By startingwith medium-tech products and specializing inlabor-intensive products and commodity productionindustries, industrializing countries can secure nichesin global markets from which their industrial base cangrow. Such an industrialization strategy may wellstimulate rapid job creation, be more environmentallybenign than a strategy based on heavy industry, andrequire lower infrastructure costs.The bicycle industry offers a prime example of amid-tech export product. The potential market for bicyclesand motorbikes is large. Assembly is labor-intensive,and manufacturing facilities can be widely distributedwithin a country. The product has more than1,000 parts. Factories producing frames thus need tobe supplied by numerous smaller industries that provideseats, tires, inner tubes, lights, and so on (97). Onestudy in Patna, India, found that $12,000 created twonew jobs if invested in a conventional bus system, butsix jobs in motorized rickshaw firms and 75 jobs in thecycle rickshaw industry (98). Repair shops constituteanother form of local industrial development that followslogically from a greater supply of bicycles. Taiwanand China already export significant numbers ofbicycles (99), and other RICs could emulate their successwith similar products.There are also likely to be many new opportunitiesfor industrial development in the changed global environmentof the 1990s, and perhaps new forms of technologycooperation and joint efforts between the RICsand industrial countries. For example:• Pharmaceutical companies have yet to tackle many ofthe diseases prevalent in developing countries. Tropicalcountries, which host most of the world's untappedgenetic resources, could license those resourcesin return for revenues to support biodiversity conservation(as Costa Rica recently has) or undertake jointefforts with multinational companies to develop pharmaceuticals,cosmetics, and agricultural varieties.• Industrial pollution control is an area of growing concernthroughout the world, and the RICs could workto develop not only state-of-the-art technologies fortheir own facilities but also export markets for cleanupequipment and services, building on their superiorknowledge of conditions in developing countries.• Information technologies are spreading rapidlythroughout the world, creating new business opportunities—bothmanufacturing and assembly plants, andnew services, such as neighborhood cable televisionnetworks hooked to a satellite receiver and cellularphone- or facsimile-based message services.CONCLUSIONRapidly industrializing countries face extraordinarilydifficult challenges. At the same time, as they explorenew paths to development, they represent the hopes ofthe developing world—particularly if they can industrializeand improve living standards while conservingirreplacable natural resources. Because eachcountry varies in its resources and culture, there arelikely to be a number of models and approaches to sustainabledevelopment. The countries discussed in thischapter do not exhaust the possibilities but may illustrateboth the challenges and a number of creative attemptsto find solutions. Nonetheless, a number ofcommon elements stand out.Countries such as South Korea and Taiwan havedemonstrated that investing in human development—for example, by funding education and health programsand providing for equitable income distributionand land reform—is vital to combating poverty, controllingpopulation growth, and getting developmentstarted. But as the development process gathers momentum,countries need to design policies to minimizethe environmental impacts of development so clearlyseen in the NICs and the industrial nations and investin cleanup programs earlier rather than later. Efforts toinstall efficient, clean technologies can pay off in a bigway in the future.Governments in rapidly industrializing countriescan do a great deal to steer development in a sustainabledirection by adopting appropriate policies—many of which are discussed in this and precedingchapters. Governments in industrialized countries alsohave an important role to play by offering the necessarytechnical and financial assistance to support thiskind of development.An initial draft of this chapter was prepared by Linda Starke, aWashington-based editor ana writer specializing in environment anddevelopment topics; additional contributions came from several seniorWRI staff members^^^^^References and Notes1. Marcus Noland, Pacific Basin DevelopingCountries: Prospects for the Future (Institutefor International Economics, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. 15.2. Ibid., Table 1.1, p. 4.3. Carl J. Dahlman, "Structural Change andTrade in the East Asian Newly IndustrialEconomies and Emerging Industrial Economies,"in The Newly Industrializing Countriesin the World Economy, Randall B. Purcell, ed.(Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Colorado,1989), p. 53.4. Steering Committee, Taiwan 2000 Study,Taiwan 2000 (Academia Sinica, Taipei,1989), pp. 11 and 41.5. Ibid., p. 22.6. Ibid., p. 19.7. "Are You Really Going to Eat That?" Bang(Taipei, March 1988), p. 13.8. Op. cit. 4, p. 20.9. Walden Bello and Stephanie Rosenfeld,Dragons in Distress: Asia's Miracle Economiesin Crisis (Institute for Food and DevelopmentPolicy, San Francisco, 1990), p. 179.10. "Victim of Its Own Success," Newsweek(June 4,1990), p. 76, cited in Walden Belloand Stephanie Rosenfeld, Dragons in Distress:Asia's Miracle Economies in Crisis (Institutefor Food and Development Policy, SanFrancisco, 1990), p. 204.54World Resources 1992-93

Rapidly Industrializing Countries 411. "Trillions of Won' Needed for Clean-Up,"Yonhap (August 10,1989), reproduced in ForeignBroadcast Information Service: East Asia(August 10,1989), pp. 26-27.12. Mark Clifford, "Kicking Up a Stink," FarEastern Economic Review (October 18,1990),p. 72.13. Cooperative Energy Assessment (Republic ofKorea Ministry of Energy and U.S. Departmentof Energy, Argonne, Illinois, September1981), p. 126, cited in Walden Bello andStephanie Rosenfeld, Dragons in Distress:Asia's Miracle Economies in Crisis (Institutefor Food and Development Policy, San Francisco,1990), p. 102.14. Op. eft. 9, p. 97.15. Op. cit. 9, pp. 98-99.16. Global Environment Monitoring System, Assessmentof Urban Air Quality (United NationsEnvironment Programme, Nairobi,and United Nations Development Programme,Geneva, 1988), pp. 15 and 24.17. Stephan Haggard, Pathways from the Periphery(Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NewYork, 1990), p. 240.18. World Resources Institute and InternationalInstitute for Environment and Development,World Resources, 1987 (Basic Books,New York, 1987), Table 16.1, p. 249.19. Richard Grabowski, "Taiwanese EconomicDevelopment: An Alternative Interpretation,"Development and Change, Vol. 19(1988), p. 61.20. Op. cit. 9, p. 183.21. Pak Ki-Hyuk, "Farmland Tenure in the Republicof Korea," in Land Tenure and SmallFarmers in Asia, FFTC Book Series, No. 24(FFTC, Taiwan, 1983), pp. 113-116, cited inWalden Bello and Stephanie Rosenfeld,Dragons in Distress: Asia's Miracle Economiesin Crisis (Institute for Food and DevelopmentPolicy, San Francisco, 1990), p. 79.22. Song Byung-Nak, "The Korean Economy,"unpublished paper, Seoul, 1989, p. 27, citedin Walden Bello and Stephanie Rosenfeld,Dragons in Distress: Asia's Miracle Economiesin Crisis (Institute for Food and DevelopmentPolicy, San Francisco, 1990), p. 37.23. Op. cit. 17, p. 227.24. The World Bank, Indonesia: Poverty Assessmentand Strategy Report (The World Bank,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. xiii.25. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Indonesia:Country Profile 1990-91 (EIU, London,1990), p. 11.26. The World Bank, World Development Report1991 (Oxford University Press, New York,1991), Table 29, pp. 260-261.27. Adam Schwarz, "Growth Strains Superstructure,"Far Eastern Economic Review(April 18,1991), p. 36.28. Op. cit. 26.29. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Malaysia:Country Profile 1990-91 (EIU, London,1990), p. 11.30. The World Bank, Trends in Developing Economies1990 (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. 103.31. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Mexico:Country Profile 1990-91 (EIU, London,1990), p. 8.32. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), ThailandBurma: Country Profile 1990-91 (EIU,London, 1990), p. 6.33. The World Resources Institute and InternationalInstitute for Environment and Developmentin collaboration with the UnitedNations Environment Programme, World Resources198S-89 (Basic Books, New York,1988), Table 15.7, pp. 258-259.34. The World Bank, unpublished data (TheWorld Bank, Washington, D.C., 1991)35. Op. cit. 25, p. 8.36. Op. cit. 29, p. 8.37. Op.cit.3A.38. United Nations Fund for Population Activities(UNFPA), The State of World Population1991 (UNFPA, New York, 1991), p. 22.39. Op. cit. 31, pp. 14-15.40. Ben Ross Schneider, "Brazil Under Collor:Anatomy of a Crisis," World Policy Journal(Spring 1991), p. 339.41. James Brooke, "Rural Union Chief is Slainin Brazil," New York Times (February 5,1991), p. A8.42. Anthony L. Hall, "Land Tenure and LandReform in Brazil," in Agrarian Reform andGrassroots Development, Roy L. Prosterman,Mary N. Temple, and Timothy M. Hanstad,eds. (Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder,Colorado, 1990), p. 206.43. Ibid., pp. 222-223.44. Theodore Panayotou, "Natural Resourcesand the Environment in the Economies ofAsia and the Near East: Growth, StructuralChange, and Policy," Harvard Institute forInternational Development, Harvard University,Cambridge, Massachusetts, July1989, pp. 27 and 38.45. John P. Lewis and Devesh Kapur, "An UpdatingCountry Study: Thailand's Needsand Prospects in the 1990s," World Development,Vol. 18, No. 10 (1990), pp. 1364 and1373.46. Op. cit. 30, p. 275.47. Op. cit. 24, p. ix.48. Op. cit. 30, p. 328.49. "The Dwindling Forest Beyond Long San,"The Economist (August 18,1990), p. 23.50. Op. cit. 30, pp. 277 and 332.51. The World Resources Institute, Toward anEnvironmental and Natural Resources ManagementStrategy for ANE Countries in the 1990s(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1990), pp. 26 and 27.52. Robert Repetto, Skimming the Water: Rent-Seeking and the Performance of Public IrrigationSystems (World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., 1986), p. 1.53. Dhira Phantumvanit and TheodorePanayotou, Natural Resources for a SustainableFuture: Spreading the Benefits, SynthesisPaper No. 1, The 1990 Thailand DevelopmentResearch Institute (TDRI), Year-EndConference, Industrializing Thailand and itsImpact on the Environment (TDRI, Bangkok,Thailand, 1990), p. 74.54. Op. cit. 51, p. 119.55. Robert Weissman, "Rich Land, Poor People:The Economics of Indonesian Development,"Multinational Monitor (October 1990),p. 19.56. Peter Halesworth, "Plundering Indonesia'sRainforests," Multinational Monitor (October1990), p. 8.57. Theodore Panayotou and ChartchaiParasuk, Land and Forest: Projecting Demandand Managing Encroachment, Research ReportNo. 1, The 1990 Thailand DevelopmentResearch Institute (TDRI), Year-End Conference,Industrializing Thailand and its Impacton the Environment (TDRI, Thailand,Bangkok, 1990), Appendix B, p. 75.58. Walter Arensberg, Mary Louise Higgins, RafaelAsenjo et al., "Environment and NaturalResources Strategy in Chile" (draft), preparedfor United States Agency for InternationalDevelopment/Chile, WorldResources Institute, Washington, D.C., November8,1989, p. 21.59. "Logging Ban Move Described as Failure,"(Bangkok) Business Times (August 22,1990),p. 49.60. Op. cit. 53, p. 30.61. Op. cit. 56.62. Directorate General of Forest Utilization,Ministry of Forestry; and Food and AgriculturalOrganization of the United Nations,Situation and Outlook of the Forestry Sector inIndonesia, Volumel: Issues, Findings and Opportunities(Government of Indonesia, Jakarta,September 1990), p. 10.63. "Forestry: The Industry Strikes Back," Asi'flweek(April 6,1990), pp. 56-57.64. Op. cit. 49.65. Anthony Rowley, "Logged Out," FarEastern Economic Review (December 13,1990), p. 72.66. James Brooks, "Brazilian Leader Acts to Protectthe Amazon," The New York Times (June26,1991), p. A9.67. Op. cit. 58, pp. 8-9 and 18-19.68. World Resources Institute in cooperationwith U.S. Agency for International Development,Latin America and Caribbean Bureau,"Toward an Environmental Strategy forLatin America and the Caribbean: Issuesand Options Paper" (draft), World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., November30,1990, p. 27.69. Stephen J. Rothenburg, Lourdes Schnaas-Arrieta, Irving A. Perez-Guerrero et al.,"Evaluation del Riesgo Potencial de laExposition Perinatal al Plomo en el Valle deMexico," Perinatologia y Reproduction Humana,Vol. 3, No. 1 (1989), pp. 49 and 56.70. David Scott Clark, "Mexico City Curbs FuelishWays," The Christian Science Monitor (October29,1990), p. 13.71. "Malaysia: Merchants of Gloom," FarEastern Economic Review (September 20,1990), pp. 12 and 13.72. Op. cit. 58, p. 33.73. Adam Schwarz, "Power Struggle," FarEastern Economic Review (November 8,1990), p. 42.74. Op. cit. 27, p. 40.75. Howard S. Geller, "Electricity Conservationin Brazil: Status Report and Analysis," preparedfor U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, U.S. Congress, Office of TechnologyAssessment, Electrobras, and Universidadede Sao Paulo, American Council for an Energy-EfficientEconomy, Washington, D.C.,1990, p. 1.76. "For the Record," Energy Economist, No. 106(August 1990), p. 32.77. Eric D. Larson, ed., Report on the 1989 ThailandWorkshop on End-Use-Oriented EnergyAnalysis (International Institute for EnergyConservation, Washington, D.C., 1990), p. i.78. Op. cit. 27, p. 40.79. Office of Energy, Bureau for Science andTechnology, U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment, Energy Inefficiency in theAsia/Near East Region and Its EnvironmentalImplications (RCG/Hagler, Bailly, Inc.,Washington, D.C., 1989), pp. 5.3 and 5.7.80. Gregory H. Kats, "Slowing Global Warmingand Sustaining Development," Energy Policy(January /February 1990), p. 30.81. Deborah Lynn Bleviss and Vanessa Lide,eds.. Energy Efficiency Strategies for Thailand(University Press of America, Lanham,Maryland, 1989), p. 49.82. Op. cit. 75, pp. 144-156 and 168.83. Michael Philips, Energy Conservation Activitiesin Latin America and the Caribbean (InternationalInstitute for Energy Conservation,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 16.World Resources 1992-9355

4 Rapidly Industrializing Countries84. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment,Energy in Developing Countries (U.S.Government Printing Office, Washington,D.C., 1991), p. 39.85. Michael Philips, "Alternative Roles for theEnergy Sector Management Assistance Programin End-Use Energy Efficiency" (workingdraft), International Institute for EnergyConservation, Washington, D.C., October1990, p. 17.86. Mark J. Cherniack, Thailand Electricity Mission(International Institute for Energy Conservation,Washington, D.C., 1989), pp. 5-6.87. "South East Asia: Moving Too Fast for Comfort?"Energy Economist (August 1990), p. 18.88. Marcia D. Lowe, Alternatives to the Automobile:Transport for Livable Cities (WorldwatchInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 20.89. George Heaton, Robert Repetto, and RodneySobin, Transforming Technology: AnAgenda for Environmentally SustainableGrowth in the 21st Century (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1991), p. ix.90. "Tlatelolco Declaration: Who Pays the Bill?"Development Forum (May-June 1991), p. 9.91. Robert Reinhold, "Mexico Proclaims an Endto Sanctuary for Polluters," New York Times(April 18,1991), p. Al.92. James Brooke, "Signs of Life in Brazil's IndustrialValley of Death, New York Times(June 15,1991), p. A2.93. Mark A. Uhlig, "Canada is Expected to JoinU.S.-Mexico Trade Talks," New York Times(January 30,1991), p. Dl.94. Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)Economic and Social Progress in Latin American1990 Report (IDB, Washington, D.C.,1990), pp. 10-13.95. Op.cit.l, pp. 140-141.96. South Commission, The Challenge to theSouth (Oxford University Press, Oxford,U.K., 1990), p. 16.97. Riccardo Navarro, Urs Heierli, and VictorBeck, "Bicycles, Intelligent Transport inLatin America," Development (No. 4,1986),p. 47.98. Michael Replogle, "Transportation Strategiesfor Sustainable Development," paperpresented at the 5th World Conference onTransport Research, Yokahama [or Yokohama],Japan, July 10-14,1989.99. "Ways to Turn the Wheels of the Bicycle Industry,"China Daily (March 14,1990).56World Resources 1992-93

Regional Focus5. Central EuropeThe industrial regions of Central Europe are so chokedby pollution that the health of children is impairedand the lives of adults shortened. The most notoriousexample is the extensive coal belt that includes southwesternPoland, northwestern Czechoslovakia, andthe southeastern part of (East) Germany. (See Box 5.1.)Within this area lies much of Central Europe's heavyindustry—especially steel, cement, chemical, and petrochemicalworks—and a phalanx of inefficient coalburningpower plants spewing forth massive amountsof sulfur dioxide (SO2) and soot. The region containsnumerous environmental horror stories, includingKatowice, Poland (l); Usti, Czechoslovakia (2); andMost, Czechoslovakia (3). Dangerous conditions alsohave been reported in many other towns in Central Europe,including Copsa Mica, Romania (4); Bitterfeld,(East) Germany (5); and the Borsod County IndustrialRegion in Hungary (6) (7). (See Figure 5.1.)Conditions are also serious in some large cities. DuringPrague's air inversions in January 1982 and February1987, the 24-hour SO2 concentrations exceeded3,000 micrograms per cubic meter (8), more than 20times the admissible 24-hour limit and comparable tothe infamous London smog of December 1952.Cleanup costs are staggering. In Poland alone, it isestimated that cleanup could cost $260 billion over thenext 25-30 years. The costs of pollution abatement, excludingindustrial and energy restructuring, have beenestimated at $70 billion (9).The situation is somewhat reminiscent of the industrializedareas of the Ruhr Valley in Western Europeand the steelmaking regions of Indiana and Pennsylvaniain the 1950s and 1960s. Those areas, however, werefavored with settled political institutions and maturemarket economies. The nations of Central Europemust simultaneously contend with fledgling politicalsystems, slowly emerging market economies, underdevelopedservice and technology sectors, and unsettledgovernment bureaucracies. Unemployment isrising rapidly and most governments have very littlemoney. Devising comprehensive and realistic environmentalcleanup plans is proving difficult. Public pressureto force environmental cleanup could be easilyoverwhelmed by pressure to create jobs.There are, however, important signs of hope. Theemerging parliamentary democracies in Hungary, Poland,and Czechoslovakia have attracted considerablesupport from other industrialized governments and internationallending institutions. Poland has a hugemarket, Czechoslovakia a well-developed industrial infrastructure,and Hungary a well-developed privatesector. The region's workforce is well-educated andWorld Resources 1992-9357

5 Regional Focus: Central EuropeFigure 5.1 Central Europe's Coal BeltUstiMost—~ ooChomutoiy PraguezechoslovakiGermany > ^s —\ OstravaBox 5.1 The RegionThere is no consensus about the name ofthis region or which countries shouldproperly be included in it. The term"Eastern Europe" is considered old fashionedand somewhat derogatory. Manyresidents of the region—especially in Poland,Hungary, and Czechoslovakia—prefer the term Central Europe. Thisreport uses the term Central Europe.The countries of the region traditionallyincluded the six full Central Europeanmembers of the Council forMutual Economic Assistance: Poland,Bulgaria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania,and the eastern part of Germany(formerly the German Democratic Republic).A broader interpretation wouldinclude Albania and Yugoslavia;broader still (and by some definitionsthe "real" Eastern Europe) would includethe Baltic republics and Byelorussia,the Ukraine, and Moldavia in theSoviet Union. This chapter includes Albaniaand Yugoslavia, but does not includeSoviet republics.Because few environmental data areavailable for Romania, Bulgaria, Albania,and Yugoslavia, most of this discussionis devoted to Poland, Hungary,(East) Germany, and Czechoslovakia.References to the Soviet Union assumethe borders prior to the breakup of theSource: Compiled by the World Resources Institute.eager for consumer goods, better services, and a betterenvironment. Foreign private investors, though initiallycautious, are planning to invest billions of dollarsin the region over the next five years. The easternpart of Germany—the former German Democratic Republic—hasthe unique advantage of its integrationinto the Federal Republic of Germany, one of the mostdynamic economies in the world. (The former GermanDemocratic Republic is here referred to as (East) Germany;the former Federal Republic of Germany as(West) Germany.)Some other nations in the region, notably Romania,are less advanced politically and have attracted less internationalinterest. Yugoslavia faces difficult ethnic divisionsthat threaten its political stability.Although Central Europe's environmental problemsare massive, they have not enveloped the entire region.In Poland, the government in 1983 designated 27"areas of ecological hazard" that comprise about 11percent of the country's total land area and include 35percent of its population. Of these 27 areas, the 5 mostserious "areas of ecological disaster"—Gdansk, on theBaltic coast; Legnica-Glogow, in west-central Poland;and the linked areas of Upper Silesia, Krakow, andRybnik in the southwest—cover about 4.4 percent ofthe country's total land area (10).Many areas in the region remain relatively unpollutedand attractive, including the northeastern quarterof Poland (the "green lung of Poland"), theBieschady Mountains, the Tatra Mountains, LakeBalaton in Hungary, and the Carpathians in Romania.The end of the Cold War also has brought an end tothe unpopulated, zealously guarded "no man's lands"along state borders, opening up many new opportunitiesfor creating protected areas. (See Box 5.2.)HOW DID IT HAPPEN?Conventional wisdom says that Central Europe's environmentalproblems all began in the late 1940s withthe establishment of socialist regimes and the impositionof the Stalinist model of industrial growth. Inmany areas, however, the patterns of industrial developmentwere in evidence well before the politicalchanges of the late 1940s. Katowice, for example, was acenter of heavy industry long before World War II.Czechoslovakia was a relatively advanced industrialcountry after World War II.Nor have these countries followed identical economicpaths. Hungary's 1968 package of economic reforms(the "New Economic Mechanism"), which freedeconomic organizations from obligatory productiontargets, allowed cooperatives to become more genuinelyindependent and improved the private sector'sability to work with the state sector (11). Some East Europeangovernments—notably Poland and Czechoslovakia—beganto express official concern about environmentalproblems by the 1970s and 1980s (12). Many58World Resources 1992-93

Regional Focus: Central Europe 5Box 5.2 New Opportunities for Nature ConservationThe political transformation of Central Europehas created a major new opportunityfor the conservation of natural areas.Many lands along state borders have remainedlargely unpopulated for the pastfour decades. Some of these areas couldnow be preserved as parks or managed ina way that would protect their biologicaldiversity and recreational values. Thisidea, originally devised in early 1990, hasbeen embraced by about three dozen localand international conservation groups.These groups have also proposed creatinga new organization—a European Trust forFigure 1 Forgotten Lands—Future Preserves?Natural and Cultural Inheritance—thatcould spearhead the effort and facilitate financing.The region could take advantageof "debt-for-nature" swaps between WestEuropean (creditor) states and Central European(debtor) states.A rapid initial survey identified 24major conservation areas. Major areas includethe Rhodope Mountains, NestosDelta, and adjoining areas (Greece, Bulgaria,Yugoslavia, and Turkey); the floodplainareas of the Danube, Thaya, andMarch rivers (Austria, Czechoslovakia,and Hungary); the Danube Delta (Romaniaand the Soviet Union); the Bavarianand Bohemian forests (Germany, Czechoslovakia,and Austria); Lake Scutari (Yugoslaviaand Albania); the Finnish-Russianwoodland areas (Finland and the SovietUnion); and the Bialowieza virgin forest(Poland and the Soviet Union) 0).References and Notes1 "Ecological Bricks for Our CommonHouse of Europe," Politische Okologie (October1990), pp. 16-17.Key' , NorwayItalySwedenFinlandBulgaria23 24U.S.S.R.1. Finnish-Russian Woodland Area2. Biebrza Marshes3. Bialowieza Virgin Forest4. Schorfheide/Chorin Area5. Spreewald6. Sachsische Schweiz7. Karkonosze Area8. Tatra Area9. Pieniny Area10. Bieszczady Region11. Slovakian Karst12. Floodplain Areas of the Danube,Thaya, and March13. Thaya Valley14. Trebonsko Pond Region15. Bavarian Forest, BohemianForest Area16. Lake of Neusiedel17. Mur Floodplain18. International Karst Park19. Lower Reaches of the Drau andKopacki-Rit20. Sava Floodplain21. Danube Delta22. Lake Scutari23. Prespa Area24. Rhodope Mountains, NestosDelta, and Adjoining AreasGreeceTurkeySource: "Ecological Bricks for Our Common House of Europe," Politische Okologie (October 1990),pp. 16-17.World Resources 1992-93

5 Regional Focus: Central Europeof these governments also enacted environmental protectionlaws in the 1970s and 1980s, about the sametime as their West European counterparts (13).Nevertheless, four decades of socialist rule took a disastroustoll on the region's environment. Many explanationshave been advanced for this failure.Early theories of socialism reasoned that state ownershipof the means of production would remove the motivesfor pollution because there was no reason for thestate to contaminate itself and reduce its own wealth.In practice, however, factory managers were pressedto commit all their resources to meeting production targets,rather than reducing or cleaning up waste (14).There was also strong political support for independent,self-reliant economic systems that did not dependon international markets. Those pressures createda bias in favor of domestic resources such as coaland against imported energy from other countries.Socialist economies used energy inefficiently. A primaryreason, according to Hungarian economist JanosKornai, was that industries operated under "soft budgetconstraints," which allowed cost increases to bepassed on, and under which industries could rely ongovernments to bail them out rather than lose thefirm's production or create unemployment (15) (16).Hungarian economist Gabor Hovanyi has also arguedthat socialist policies tended to reduce trade, limit foreignexchange, distort wages, and reduce investment,all of which critically affected innovation (17). Westernnations contributed to the problem by blocking accessto advanced technologies and credit (18).Other components of socialist systems have affectedthe region's environmental deterioration:• The governments of Central Europe set prices of energyand natural resources at relatively low levels, andthe prices were kept low even when the costs of miningand energy grew because of worsening miningconditions (19). Prices did not take into account thecosts of controlling pollution. The same was true in theWestern industrialized countries until regulationsbegan to force industry to internalize these costs. Westernindustrialized countries made further dramatic improvementsin energy efficiency following the oil priceshocks of the 1970s.• Low prices led to overconsumption, both by industryand by consumers. Residents in apartment buildings,for instance, typically had no incentive (or individualmeans) to conserve heat or water because apartmentslacked individual thermostats and water meters (20).• State enterprises received a bonus for increasing theiroutput, but they bore no penalty for depleting resourcesand therefore had no reason to treat resourcesas a valuable asset. Inputs were also part of the plantarget, and had to be used up to maintain the samequantity in the next five-year plan. Resources wereoften wasted, and there was little incentive to find substitutesor improve technology (21).• Most countries established elaborate systems of antipollutionfees, but they were weakly enforced (22).• State enterprises had little incentive to control pollutants.The state owned and paid for everything, so ministriesand industries included the cost of fines for pollutionas part of the regular budgetary process (23).• Central control did not allow localities to devise policiesbased on local needs. Communities affected bypollution had no right to improve their environmentalquality or to receive financial compensation from thepolluter (24).• The emphasis on heavy industry was hampered byshortages of hard currency to invest in new machineryand technology and the necessary skills to operatenew machinery properly (25). As machinery becameoutdated, maintenance costs increased and industrialefficiency declined. The problem was worsened by afrequent lack of spare parts.Finally, the public was left largely uninformed andcould protest environmental conditions only at greatpersonal risk. Central Europeans did receive warningsignals about the environment in the 1960s and 1970s,and there were early intellectual efforts, including papersand books published on the subject. Relativelyweak environmental movements emerged in the 1970sin Hungary and Bohemia; there were even a few instancesof environmental protest actions (26). But inhibitionson public discussion and speech left little roomfor the public expression of those concerns; instead,ecologists in the region had to become informationsleuths, ferreting out data and transmitting what theylearned via underground journals. The authoritarianregimes of the period, though not totally immune topopular pressures, were generally unresponsive.This situation began to change with the politicaltransformation of the 1980s. Recognition of the Solidaritytrade union in 1980 reawakened Polish political lifeand sparked an environmental movement. In September1980, the Polish Ecological Club—the first fully independentenvironmental group in the region—wasfounded in Krakow (27). The club actually formed a formalpart of the "Round Table" negotiations to endcommunist power (28). In the early 1980s, the movement—acoalition of trade unions, scientists, localmembers of the Polish Ecological Club, and the press—convinced the State Ministry of Metallurgy to closedown the Skawina aluminum works, a heavy emitterof toxic fluoride emissions located just nine milessouthwest of Krakow (29).Environmental movements played a significant rolein the revolutions that toppled communist governmentsthroughout the region in 1989 and 1990. Thereare by now numerous independent environmental advocacygroups in the region and a Green party (or parties)in each country (30). Many of these groups remainrelatively weak, however (31).Industrial Development and Energy EfficiencyOverall energy intensity—energy consumption perdollar of gross national product—has been muchhigher in the planned economies of Central Europethan in market economies. The energy required tomake steel in Central Europe has been two to threetimes greater than in Western Europe. Steelmaking inthe region also tends to use older, less efficient technol-World Resources 1992-9360

Regional Focus: Central Europe 5Table 5.1Commercial Energy Consumption in Central Europe, 1989CountryTotalAlbania119Bulgaria1,291CzechoslovakiaGermany (Dem Rep)2,7333,648HungaryPolandRomaniaYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.1,1365,0623,0471,77154,958SolidFuels {b}426621,7022,7533064,04094481014,510Consumption (petajoules) {a}LiquidFuels {c}5035551353931360568360916,049Gas {d}162384033034273971,34623922,970Electricity {e}1136114539020741131,429Consumption by Fuel Type as a Percent of TotalSolid LiquidFuels Fuels3643512862197515272880123122463426 29Gas1318158388441342Electricity934180263Source: United Nations Statistical Office, U.N. Energy Tape (United Nations, New York, 1991).Notes: a. Consumption is defined as domestic production plus net imports, minus net stock increases, minus aircraft and marine bunkers, b. Solid fuels includebituminous coal, lignite, peat, and oil shale burned directly, c. Liquid fuels include crude petroleum and natural gas liquids, d. Gas includes natural gas and otherpetroleum gases, e. Electricity includes primary production from hydro, nuclear, and geothermal sources.ogies; for example, the open hearth process accountsfor about 55-60 percent of steel production in CentralEurope and the Soviet Union, while it is virtually outof use in Western Europe and accounts for only about8 percent of U.S. output (32).Greatly contributing to the region's environmentalproblems has been the general failure to maintain industrialplants and equipment, to replace or updatemachinery, or to introduce new technology, manufacturingprocesses, and operating practices (33). The continueddominance of heavy industry in Central Europealso contrasts with the typical pattern in most industrializedmarket economies, where the mix of economicactivity eventually tends to shift from heavy industryto lighter industry and services.Dependence on CoalAfter World War II, both Western and Central Europerelied primarily on domestic coal resources. But thetwo regions have diverged sharply since then. WesternEurope prospered with cheap oil imports in the 1950sand 1960s, while Central Europe had to wait until oiland gas became available from the Soviet Union in theearly 1970s. Western Europe also developed domesticoil and gas resources, which now provide about 28 percentof total energy consumption; coal, meanwhile, hasshrunk to about 14 percent of consumption (34). (SeeWorld Resources 1988-89, pp. 117-121.)Domestic coal has continued to be the primary fuelin Central Europe, especially in (East) Germany, Poland,and Czechoslovakia. (See Table 5.1.) Much of thecoal resource in the region is brown coal, or lignite,which has a high ash content, a sulfur content that variesconsiderably from region to region (0.7 percent insome power plants in East Germany (35), up to 5 percentin some other regions (36)), and an energy yieldthat may be only half that of hard coal. As a result, agreat deal more brown coal has to be burned to meet agiven energy demand. This increases emissions of sulfurdioxide (SO2) and oxides of nitrogen (NO X ) and destroysmore land because most brown coal issurface-mined (37).THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGEPrecisely describing the extent of environmental damagein Central Europe is difficult because the data gatheredover the past four decades have been either spottyor of uncertain quality. The region's political transformationhas prompted much greater interest in environmentalmonitoring, and the availability and qualityof data will probably improve over the next few years.In general, however, environmental conditions areconsidered poor in the entire region. Conditions in Poland,(East) Germany, and Czechoslovakia are usuallyjudged somewhat worse than the regional average;conditions in Hungary may be somewhat better. Thereis considerable evidence to suggest that environmentalconditions have seriously affected the health of peopleliving in the region. (See Box 5.3.)Atmospheric PollutionThe region's reliance on hard and brown coal has inflicteda heavy toll on the atmosphere, especially insouthern (East) Germany, the northern Bohemia regionof Czechoslovakia, and the Silesian industrial regionin southwest Poland. Sulfur dioxide emissionshave been estimated at about 5.2 million metric tons in(East) Germany and 3.9 million metric tons in Polandin 1988. On a per capita basis, emissions in East Germanywere estimated at 313.3 kilograms, comparedwith 24.2 kilograms in West Germany. (See Table 5.2.)As a result of these emissions, several regions inCzechoslovakia have average annual sulfur dioxideconcentrations that exceed the World Health Organization(WHO) limits. (See Table 5.3.) The Chomutov regiontypically exceeds the WHO daily limit of 150cubic meters for 117 days a year (38).Coal burning also produces large quantities of particulates.In 1985, East Germany emitted between 5 and 6million metric tons of particulates and Poland nearly 3million metric tons (39). Sweden, in contrast, had estimatedannual emissions in 1982-84 of 40,000 metrictons (40).The region also emits significant amounts of nitrogendioxide. (See Table 5.4.) Other contributors to airpollution include carbon monoxide, ammonia, fluorine,chlorine, volatile hydrocarbons, phenol, hydrogensulfide, arsenic, and lead (41).Low Stacks: An Important SourceAlthough the high smokestacks of industries are commonlythought to be the principal source of air pollu-World Resources 1992-9361

5 Regional Focus: Central EuropeBox 5.3 Environment and Health in Central EuropeThe health prospects of people living inCentral Europe are the bleakest in the industrializedworld. Among 33 industrializedcountries, life expectancy is theshortest in Central Europe and the SovietUnion fl). (See Figure 1.) The average Japaneseman, for example, will live about adecade longer than the average Hungarianman (75.8 years, compared to 66.1 years).Infant mortality, while far less than in developingcountries, nevertheless is highrelative to other industrialized countries.In 1988, for example, it was 11.9 per 1,000live births in Czechoslovakia, 15.8 inHungary, and 16.2 in Poland; while in thesame year, (West) Germany's rate was 7.5and Japan's was 4.8 (2). Available data onmorbidity suggest high rates of acute andchronic respiratory disease (3) (4), childhoodlead poisoning (5), occupational injuries(6), and, among exposed workers,noise-induced hearing impairment (7).These East-West differences began toemerge in the mid-1960s; until that time,Central Europe had approached other industrializedregions in infant mortalityand life expectancy (8) (9) uo).The leading causes of death in CentralEurope are cardiovascular disease and cancer;death rates in both categories have increasedin recent years. In Hungary, deathrates for cardiovascular disease have increasedfor men 30 and older, and rates foralmost all types of cancer increased substantiallyfor both men and women between1960 and 1986 01).ENVIRONMENTAL ANDWORKPLACE FACTORSTo what extent are environmental factorsthe cause of this deteriorating healthsituation? The answer is not known. Environmentalfactors appear to be one of severalimportant contributing factors. Othersinclude high-fat diets (which contribute tothe development of coronary artery diseaseand to certain types of cancer) andthe high percentage of people smokinghigh-tar, high-nicotine cigarettes (which isassociated with cancer of the lung andother body organs). Other social and occupationalfactors include stress (a contributingfactor in coronary artery disease andother disorders) and safety hazards in theworkplace, on the road, and at home.Serious environmental health hazards inCentral Europe include the following:• High levels of sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen,lead, and other hazardous chemicalsin the ambient air, resulting mainlyfrom power plant, factory, and automobileemissions;• Contamination of groundwater and soilby nitrogenous fertilizers, pesticides, andtoxic metals;• Contamination of rivers by sewage and industrialwaste; and• A variety of chemical, physical, biological,and psychosocial health hazards in theworkplace.Exposure to toxic and carcinogenicchemicals can lead to a variety of acuteand chronic health problems. For example,childhood exposure to lead—even at levelspreviously regarded as safe—can retardnormal intellectual development;exposure to volatile organic compoundsand certain other chemicals can lead toneurotoxic effects in children and adults;and exposure to certain dusts, fumes, andgases can cause or contribute to acute andchronic respiratory disorders. What isoften not known in Eastern Europe is thelevel and duration of human exposure tothese chemicals.The impact of environmental factors onhealth is particularly acute in the region'senvironmental "hot spots," especially inthe Katowice-Krakow area of Poland,where there has been intense industrialpollution of the groundwater and soil foras much as 200 years, and in the contiguousmining and industrial district of northernBohemia in Czechoslovakia. In partsof the Katowice area, lead levels in soilreach as high as 19,000 parts per million—about 50 times the acceptable level. Childrenhave been exposed through soilcontact, house dust, and crops grown incontaminated soil. One study in a hot-spotarea showed a 13-point difference in IQ betweenchildren with the highest and lowestblood-lead levels, as well as increasedrates of anemia, digestive problems, andchromosome damage consistent with longtermpoisoning (12).Although there is some seasonal variationin pollution levels in these areas, thelong-term pollution of air and water is sosevere that it has affected the health of peoplein the region. For example, a study ofarmy inductees in Poland revealed thatchronic bronchitis rates were more thanthree times higher at army recruitmentcenters in areas with high ambient sulfurdioxide levels than in those with low levels,and that asthma rates were four timeshigher in high-level than in low-levelareas 03). Data from northern Bohemia inCzechoslovakia reveal that very high ambientlevels of sulfur dioxide (SO2) commonlyoccur in the air, with levels greaterthan 1,000 micrograms per cubic metersustained for over a day at a time (14). TheWorld Health Organization recommendsthat SO2 exposure should not exceed 150micrograms per cubic meter on more thanseven days a year. (See World Resources1990-91, p. 356.) These high SO2 levelshave been accompanied by a fivefold increasein respiratory disease among preschoolersand a threefold increase amongschool-age children compared to the restof western Czechoslovakia. In both northernand central Bohemia, studies have repeatedlydemonstrated that removingchildren from areas of heavy air pollutionfor three-week periods in winter will reducerates of anemia and improve thefunctioning of their immune systems. Onestudy also demonstrated increases in thechildren's breathing capacity after a threeweekremoval (15).Studies comparing mortality among districtsin Czechoslovakia have demonstratedrelationships between mortalityand certain parameters of air pollution.Strong relationships also exist betweenmortality and certain social factors, suchas a low educational level, a high divorcerate, or a high percentage of Gypsies (whohave poorer health status, on average) inthe district (16). However, no studies havebeen done to adequately assess the joint effectsof environmental and social factorson health status.The policy response to date has variedfrom country to country. In general, governmentenvironmental protection and environmentalhealth programs are likely totants, coal-burning low stacks—from households,small-scale industry, and district heating plants—aresignificant contributors. In Katowice, for example, lowstacks contribute about 46 percent of all soot and dustemissions.Like the London smogs of the early 1950s, the worstair pollution episodes are typically associated withtemperature inversions during the winter, which tendto trap particulate emissions from low-stack sourcesclose to ground level. The cost of particulate damageto health and materials is estimated to be more than 10times greater from low-stack sources than from highstacks (42).Auto Emissions: A Growing ProblemAlthough not yet very numerous in the region, motorvehicles are rapidly increasing in number. As shownin Figure 5.2, motor vehicles in Poland account forabout 30 to 40 percent of the country's emissions of car-62World Resources 1992-93

Regional Focus: Central Europe 5Box 5.3be strengthened, but programs in the regionthat are concerned with health andsafety in the workplace face an uncertainfuture.NATIONAL POLICIESNational occupational health programs(such as Poland's, which places physiciansin factories to provide diagnostic, curative,and preventive services) may be weakenedor eliminated during the current periodof political and economic transition.With increasing privatization of industry,occupational health researchers are likelyto have less access to workers, workplaces,and information on chemical exposuresand related health effects among workers.Privatization also may lead to less reportingof occupational disease and injury ascost-conscious private sector managementstyles emerge. Desperate to provide jobsand gain access to hard currency, some nationsin the region may import hazardousindustrial processes such as hazardouswaste management from Western industrialcountries. If such new processes areintroduced, they may worsen environmentalquality and cause environmental andoccupational health problems.The countries of the region must makechoices that could lead them down differentpaths toward improved health status,better quality of life, and longer life expectancyor toward further deterioration ofthe environment and worsening health.References and Notes1. Matyas Borzsonyi, "Environment andHealth in Hungary," in Environment andHealth in Eastern Europe (Management Sciencesfor Health, Boston, 1990), p. 2.2. World Health Organization (WHO), WorldHealth Statistics Annual 1989 (WHO, Geneva,1989), pp. 160-162,412-428.3. Peter Rudnai, "Environmental EpidemiologyResearch in Hungary," in Environmentand Health in Eastern Europe (ManagementSciences for Health, Boston, 1990), p. 125.4. Clyde Hertzman, "Poland: Health and Environmentin the Context of SocioeconomicDecline" (University of British Columbia,Vancouver, Canada, 1990), pp. 14-17.Figure 1 Life Expectancy at Birth, 1985-90JapanNorth AmericaEuropeWestern EuropeCentral EuropeU.S.S.RHungaryRomaniaCzechoslovakiaPolandAlbaniaBulgariaYugoslaviaGermany (Dem Rep)i60 65(years)i701 "175 80Source: Adapted from United Nations (U.N.), World Population Prospects 1990: on Diskette(U.N., New York, 1991).5. Ibid., pp. 13-15.6. Gyorgy Ungvary, "Occupational Health inHungary: Occupational Safety, Hygiene,and Health Care," in Environment andHealth in Eastern Europe (Management SciencesforHealth, Boston, 1990), p. 76.7. Danuta Koradecka, "Health, Work, andthe Economy in Poland," in Environmentand Health in Eastern Europe (ManagementSciences for Health, Boston, 1990), p. 80.8. Dhruva Nagnur, Longevity and HistoricalLife Tables 1921-1981: Canada and the Provinces(Canadian Ministry of Supply andServices, Ottawa, 1986), pp. 70-71.9. Institute of Health Information and Statistics(IHIS), Health Care and Health Service inCzech Republic in Statistical Data (IHIS,Prague, 1990), p. 5.10. Peter Jozan, Recent Mortality Trends inEastern Europe, unpublished manuscript(Central Statistical Office, Budapest), pp.22-31.11. Op. cit. 1, pp. 3-4.12. B. Hager-Malecka, paper presented at theAcademy of Medicine, Zabrze, Poland,Sept. 8,1989.13. Op. cit. 4, pp. 9-10.14. Clyde Hertzman, "Environment andHealth in Czechoslovakia" (University ofBritish Columbia, Vancouver, Canada,1990), p. 12.15. Ibid., pp. 13-23.16. Dagmar Dziirova, Jan Kara, and KarelKiihnl, "Environment and Health inCzechoslovakia," paper presented at theConference on Public Health and the EnvironmentalCrisis in Central Europe, WoodrowWilson International Center forScholars, Smithsonian Institution, Washington,D.C., April 30-May 2,1990,pp. 15-20.bon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), oxides of nitrogen(NOx), and lead (Pb). The number of passengercars in Poland—currently estimated at about 5 million—isexpected to double over the next 20 years, andthe number of kilometers driven annually per vehicleis expected to increase from the current 7,000 kilometersper year to 8,000 by 1995, 9,000 by the year 2000,and 10,000 by 2010 (43).Most vehicles in Poland operate on leaded petrol averaging0.3 to 0.56 grams of lead per liter. With unleadedpetrol priced about 30 to 40 percent higher thanleaded, only about 1 percent of petrol sales were unleadedin 1990 (44).Several countries in the region have substantial numbersof automobiles—Trabants and Wartburgs—equipped with outmoded two-stroke engines that emitrelatively high levels of hydrocarbons, particles, and aldehydes.About 35 percent of Hungary's autos, for example,have these engines (45).Cities such as Budapest exhibit some of the pollutionproblems characteristic of Western cities with large vehiclepopulations. For example, carbon monoxide,World Resources 1992-9363

5 Regional Focus: Central EuropeTable 5.2 Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, 1989CountryTotal Emissions(000 metric tons ofSCVyear)Per CapitaEmissions(kilograms)Emissions PerDollar GNP(grams)Central Europe and the U.S.S.R.Albania {a}BulgariaCzechoslovakiaGermany (Dem Rep)HungaryPolandRomaniaYugoslaviaU.S.S.R. {b}501,0302,8005,2101,2183,9102001,6509,31815.6114.6178.9313.3115.2103.38.669.632.413.249.422.732.745.058.42.527.93.5Western Europe and the United StatesAustriaBelgiumFranceGermany (Fed Rep)ItalySwedenUnited KingdomUnited States {c}1244141,5201,5002,4102203,55220,70016.341.527.124.241.925.962.183.21.12.61.51.22.81.24.34.0Sources:1. Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate," Table 24.5.2. Chapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators," Table 15.1.3. The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington, D.C., June 1991).Notes:a. Estimated emissions.b. Emissions data for European part of U.S.S.R. only. Per Capita and per dollar emissions calculated using population and GNP data for entire country.c. 1988 emissions data.which frequently exceeds healthy levels, tends to behighest during the morning and evening peak traffictimes. Photochemical smog or ozone, which is causedin part by vehicle emissions of hydrocarbons and oxidesof nitrogen, frequently exceeds acceptable levelsin Budapest (46). The problem is compounded in theolder cities, which have narrow, winding streets thatwere never intended to accommodate cars and cannoteasily handle heavy traffic.Water PollutionRaw sewage and industrial effluents laced with heavymetals and toxic (and sometimes radioactive) chemicalsare the two principal contributors to the deteriorationof water quality in Central Europe's rivers. InUpper Silesia in Poland, for example, some 950,000cubic meters of saline water is pumped daily from coalmines, of which about 650,000 cubic meters—containingabout 7,000 metric tons of salt—is fed daily intothe tributaries of the Oder and Vistula rivers. The impacton the ecology of these rivers has been devastating,making much of the water useless either fordrinking or industrial purposes (47).The condition of Polish surface waters has deteriorateddramatically over the last quarter-century. ClassI water, defined as drinkable after disinfection, waspresent in 33 percent of the total length of monitoredrivers in the country in 1967; by 1986, Class I waterwas found in only about 4 percent of the country'stotal river length. Unclassed water, which is virtuallyunusable even for industrial purposes, rose from 23percent in 1967 to 39 percent in 1986 (48). About half ofPoland's cities, including Warsaw, and 15 percent ofits industrial facilities have no wastewater treatmentsystems, and about 32 percent of wastewater needingtreatment is left untreated (49) (50).Table 5.3 Average Annual Concentrations ofSulfur Dioxide in Selected Regions ofCzechoslovakia(micrograms per cubic meter)RegionChomutovMostTepliceOstravaPrague/KarlovBratislava197053575136100491975716077361006719809410293461285519851261321105515560Source: J. Vavrousek, The Environment in Czechoslovakia (StateCommission for Science, Technology and Investments, Prague, 1990),p. 23.Note: a. The admissable annual concentration limit is 40-60 micrograms percubic meter.In Czechoslovakia the quality of surface waters hasshown a similar trend. Figure 5.3, for example, showsthat the water quality of some rivers in Czechoslovakiadeteriorated drastically from 1940 to 1980. Onlyabout 27 percent of the major river lengths have beenclassified in the worst pollution category (incapable ofsustaining fish or containing inedible fish) (51). About40 percent of Czechoslovakia's wastewater is adequatelytreated. Sewage sludge, which was oncesought after as a fertilizer, is now a toxic waste inmany industrial areas because of contamination byheavy metals, especially cadmium. Groundwater contaminationalso has increased sharply: over the past 30years, average nitrate levels in groundwater in thebuilt-up areas of cities and towns rose from 30 to 120milligrams per liter (52).An analysis of five rivers in Hungary (the Kapos,Zala, Zagyva, and border sections of the Danube andTisza) found steady deterioration in water quality over64World Resources 1992-93

Regional Focus: Central Europe 5Table 5.4 Nitrogen Dioxide Emissions, 1989CountryTotal Emissions(000 metric tons ofNO 2/year)Per CapitaEmissions(kilograms)Emissions PerDollar GNP(grams)Central Europe and the U.S.S.R.Albania {a}BulgariaCzechoslovakiaGermany (Dem Rep)HungaryPolandRomania {a}Yugoslavia {a}U.S.S.R. {b}91509507082591,4803901904,1902.816.760.742.624.539.116.88.014.62.47.27.74.49.622.14.93.21.6Western Europe and the United StatesAustriaBelgiumFranceGermany (Fed Rep)ItalySwedenUnited KingdomUnited States {c}2112971,6883,0001,7003012,51319,80027.729.830.148.429.635.443.979.61.81.81.72.41.91.63.03.8Sources:1. Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate," Table 24.52. Chapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators," Table 15.1.3. The World Bank, unpublished data (The World Bank, Washington, D.C., June 1991).Notes:a. Estimated emissions.b. Emissions data for European part of U.S.S.R. only. Per capita and per dollar emissions calculated using population and GNP data for entire country.c. 1988 emissions data.Figure 5.2 Air Pollutants Contributed byVehicles in Poland, 1989(percent of emissionscontributed by vehicles)100 |Figure 5.3 Water Pollution Trends inCzechoslovakia, Selected Rivers, 1940-80(percent of river polluted) (a)80-60-40-20-/ / — Labe/ / ~Jiserajr s' Vltava/ ^__^^""^ -" Berounka-—•"•"""''^OhreCarbon Monoxide Nitrogen Oxides Sulfur DioxideHydrocarbonsLeadSource: Michael P. Walsh and Hans Apitz, "Motor Vehicle Pollution in Poland:The Problem at Present and a Strategy for Progress," draft paper preparedfor The World Bank (October 1990), Figure 5.the 1971-85 period. Budapest is responsible for the majorityof the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in theDanube (53). (BOD, the amount of oxygen removedfrom the water as the organic matter in it decays, is acommon water quality measurement.)Some industries are heavy contributors of dangerouspollutants. A coal gasification plant in Espenhain,(East) Germany, discharges 4,000 cubic meters ofwastewater daily, containing 20 metric tons of phenol,2 metric tons of ammonia, and heavy metals (54). Largeamounts of water pollutants in the region are carriedinto the Black and Baltic seas, both of which are nowheavily polluted. (See Chapter 12, "Oceans andCoasts," Box 12.4.)1940 1950 1960 1970 1980Source: Czechoslovak Academy of Science (CSAV), "State of the Developmentof Environment in Czechoslovakia" (CSAV, Prague, 1989), Table 2.13;cited in James R. Newman, "Draft Joint Environmental Study: Volume 2Technical Report," prepared for the U.S. Agency for International Developmentand the World Bank (KBN Engineering and Applied Sciences, Gainesville,Florida, 1991), Table 5-1, p. 5-2.Note: a. Includes rivers with water quality classifications of III and IV, definedas strong to heavy pollution.Agricultural SourcesAgricultural activities are a significant source of waterpollution in the region. For example, in easternCzechoslovakia, fertilizer and animal waste runofffrom farms is considered the primary cause of surfaceand groundwater nitrate pollution. It is estimated that80 percent of the surface water in rivers in easternCzechoslovakia is polluted by animal waste products(55). (See Chapter 7, "Food and Agriculture," and Chapter11, "Freshwater.")Worm Resources 1992-9365

5 Regional Focus: Central EuropeTable 5.5 Forest Defoliation in Europe, 1989(percent of trees affected)Figure 5.4 Transboundary Pollution inCentral Europe, 1987Country(a)Moderate to Severe(Classes 2-4)No Defoliation(Class 0)(metric tons of sulfur)Imports of SulfurExports of SulfurByelorussia (R)Kaliningrad (R)Czechoslovakia (N)Poland (N)United Kingdom (N)Denmark (N)Bulgaria (N)Slovenia (R)Finland (N)German Dem Rep (N)Germany, Fed Rep (N)Norway (N){b)Sweden (N){b}Hungary (N)Switzerland (N)Italy (N)France (N)Austria (N)Spain (N)76.235.033.031.928.026.024.922.618.016.415.914.812.912.712.09.15.64.43.315.026.926.022.041.048.040.560.360.145.747.157.051.963.657.075.879.374.678.0Source: Christer Agren, "Forest Decline Continues," Acid News (December1990), p. 5.Notes:a. Based on nationwide (N) or regional (R) figures for all tree species, unlessnoted.b. Conifers only.Forest and Soil DamageForest damage surveys conducted in Europe in 1989indicate that defoliation damage has increased, especiallyin the mountainous regions of Germany (bothEast and West), Czechoslovakia, and Poland. Damageto Norway spruce appears to have remained stable oreven decreased slightly in most of Europe, but seriousdeterioration was reported in Czechoslovakia and Poland.The condition of Scots pines was generally unchanged,but older trees were deteriorating inBulgaria, Hungary, and (East) Germany. The defoliationof oaks worsened; in Czechoslovakia, more than60 percent of older oaks were moderately to severelydamaged. Bulgaria reported that 25,000 hectares of silverfirs, out of a total of 35,000 hectares, are severelydamaged or dying (56).Overall, Czechoslovakia and Poland both reportedthat roughly one third of their forests were moderatelyto severely damaged. With the exception of Byelorussiaand Kaliningrad in the Soviet Union, this is themost extensive reported damage in the continent. (SeeTable 5.5.)Soil degradation—caused by factors such as acid deposition,mining operations, and the dumping of industrial,residential, and agricultural waste—is aserious problem in some parts of the region. In Bulgaria,for example, 300 square kilometers of land adjacentto metallurgical plants are severely polluted byheavy metals (57). In Poland, measurements of lead1500-1000-500-Czechoslovakia HungaryBulgaria Germany(Dem Rep)PoiandRomaniaYugoslaviaSource: Adapted from data in "Emissions are Falling...But is it Enough," AcidMagazine (September 8,1989), p. 5.and cadmium in the soil of the Upper Silesian townsof Olkusz and Slawkow are the highest ever recordedin the world (58).The effects on the land are particularly evident in theindustrial regions. In Poland, just 3 of the country's 27identified "ecological hazard" zones account for 67percent of the nation's stored waste and 75 percent ofwastes generated annually: Upper Silesia, with 304 millionmetric tons stored and 55 million metric tons generatedannually; Legnica-Glogow, with 203 millionmetric tons stored and 26 million metric tons generated;and Rybnik, with 175 million metric tons storedand 32 million metric tons generated annually (59).Transboundary PollutionSubstantial quantities of air and water pollutants generatedin one country are transmitted to others. (SeeFigure 5.4.) According to data compiled by the EuropeanMonitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP),Czechoslovakia emitted about 1 million metric tons ofsulfur in 1987, but only about 36 percent of thatamount was deposited in Czechoslovakia. Much of therest came down in countries such as Poland and theSoviet Union. In Sweden, only about 12 percent of sulfurdeposition is from Swedish sources (60).Transboundary pollution—such as the chlorine emissionsfrom a Romanian factory that blow across theDanube to Ruse, Bulgaria—has often been a politicallysensitive issue in the region. Similarly, pollutantsdumped into a river in one country can affect downstreamusers in other countries (61).NEXT STEPS: WEIGHING THE OPTIONSCentral Europe's political and economic transformationprovides an important new opportunity to assessthe region's true environmental conditions and tobegin tackling its problems. The region's governmentsface tight spending constraints and must carefully assesshow to use their limited resources. Energy policy,66World Resources 1992-93

Regional Focus: Central Europe 5especially as it relates to the use of coal in the northerngroup of countries, is a particularly critical issue. Untilmarket systems gather momentum, government policiesthat manage markets effectively—requiring pollutersto pay, for example, and encouraging them toreduce the quantity of pollutants, coupled with effectiveenforcement—could have significant long-termbenefits.For most inhabitants of the region, the question ofjobs currently takes precedence over environmentalprotection. Nevertheless, a continuing effort to assessconditions in the region and accurately describe theirimpact on human health and economic growth willplay a crucial role in any effort to improve environmentalconditions in the coming decade. Scientists,educators, policymakers, and nongovernmental organizationsall have roles to play in this effort.For the immediate future, the most critical issuesseem to be the following: managing market forces (i.e.,using efficiency and market incentives to benefit theenvironment); devising environmental policies thatprovide the greatest benefits for the least cost; andbuilding realistic, enforceable systems of laws and regulations.As Box 5.4 indicates, a variety of Western governments,lending institutions, and private organizationsare eager to help the countries of the region addressthese problems.Of the many environmental problems in the region,the most significant seems to be the impact of coalburning on air pollution and subsequently on publichealth. Many options are available to reduce emissionsfrom coal burning. Given the region's lack of funds,the best choices seem to be the following: using higherprices to force efficiency improvements; investing inenergy conservation; switching to cleaner fuels, suchas natural gas; investing in relatively inexpensive pollutioncontrol devices such as electrostatic precipitators(to control particulates); and coal washing (a processin which finely ground coal is suspended in a liquidmedium and denser, foreign material sinks to thebottom, thus reducing the amount of sulfur and ash).Eventually, economic growth will bring about beneficialstructural changes, but it will also substantiallyboost energy demand and put additional stress on theenvironment. For example, if Central European incomesgrow to match Western levels, living area (floorspace) per person could grow from the current 15square meters to an estimated 37 square meters by 2025(in the case of (East) Germany, to 50 square meters). Incomegrowth will also create demand for householdamenities such as appliances. Similarly, car ownershipper capita could more than double by 2025 (62).How all of this growth is regulated—what kind offuel economy new cars will achieve, whether householdappliances and new residential buildings will beenergy efficient—will make a great difference in the environmentalquality of the region. Environmental protectionmust be linked to growth through effectivelaws and regulations.Many of the region's countries are beginning totackle these problems. For example, in November1990, Poland became the first country in the region toapprove a comprehensive national environmental policy.The policy recommends the following actions:• Closing or restructuring the 80 worst polluting enterprisesin the country, as well as 500 additional plantsto be included in a list prepared by provincial governments;• Increasing the size of the coal washing program;• Noticeably reducing low and dispersed emissions ofdust and gases and;• Improving drinking water supplies for urban areas.By the year 2000, the plan targets reductions in airpollution (reduce SO2 emissions by 30 percent from1980 levels, NO X emissions by 10 percent, and particulatesby about 50 percent) and water pollution (reducepollution loads into rivers by 50 percent) (63).Managing Market ForcesMarket forces can be brutal judges of economic efficiency.For example, Poland's 1990 stabilization program,which began to phase out energy-related budgetsubsidies and institute market-oriented energy prices,resulted in a substantial decrease in industrial outputand thus in a reduction in emissions. The main reductionsare thought to have been in water pollution (asmeasured by biochemical oxygen demand), which mayhave dropped about 33 percent, and in particulateemissions, which are down about 20-25 percent (64).The most polluting industrial facilities are often themost inefficient, so market forces will result in the closureof many of the worst polluters. This already is thecase, for example, with part of (East) Germany's chemicalindustry (65). Unlike other nations in the region,however, East Germany's integration with West Germanyprovides some economic resilience, whichmakes the closure of plants somewhat easier to absorb.Market forces, however, are a mixed blessing for theenvironment. Competition from the European Communityand the desperate need for foreign investmentcould make these countries pollution havens.Bronislaw Kaminski, Poland's former minister of environmentalprotection, has noted that "one of the firsteffects of relaxing the straight-jacket that hamperedthe spirit of entrepreneurship in Poland [was] privateimports of hazardous wastes (disguised as 'rawmaterials') from West European countries .... Incidentslike that have forced us to design effective policytools as quickly as possible" (66). Such incidents apparentlyare not isolated: a Greenpeace International reportfound evidence of 64 trade schemes in whichPoland was targeted to receive Western hazardouswaste (67).There are signs that the governments of the regionare considering the environmental impacts of new enterprises.The Polish government stopped a contractbetween (West) German and Polish firms to reprocess60,000 metric tons of zinc concentrate per year; the arrangementwould have left Poland with less energyand more waste product. Hungary passed a decree inOctober 1990 prohibiting imports and exports basedon differences in environmental standards. The envi-World Resources 1992-9367

5 Regional Focus: Central EuropeBox 5.4 Building New PartnershipsCentral Europe's effort to restore and manageits environment is being helped bynew partnerships with Western governmentsand institutions.INTERNATIONAL LENDINGINSTITUTIONSBanking institutions are actively buildingnew bridges to the region. The new Bankfor European Reconstruction and Development(BERD), with 42 charter membersand an initial appropriation of $12 billion,was established in 1990 specifically tochannel funds for projects to rebuild CentralEurope. BERD, which began operationsin 1991, is required to devote 40percent of its loan portfolio to infrastructureprojects and 60 percent to private sectorinitiatives. Provisions for environmentalprotection and sustainable developmentwere incorporated directly into thebank's enabling legislation (l).Other banks are also helping. The NordicInvestment Bank—jointly owned bythe governments of Denmark, Finland, Iceland,Norway, and Sweden—will supportcommercial joint venture projects in the regionthat will also help clean up the Nordicenvironment (2). The EuropeanInvestment Bank has been active in Poland,Hungary, and Yugoslavia, lendingHungary money for the modernization oftheir power grid and supporting improvementsin domestic gas productionin Poland (3).The World Bank has provided an $18million loan to Poland to identify and helpaddress the highest priority environmentalproblems in Poland and to help establisha decentralized system of environmentalmanagement (4). Additional WorldBank loans to Poland include $250 millionto increase domestic production of naturalgas and support energy price reform, anestimated $100 million to help the heavychemicals and coal-mining sectors with environmentallysound restructuring, and$150 million for modernization of districtheating networks. The Bank has $398 millionin loans to Hungary, primarily forthree energy conservation projects, a petroleumproject, and a power project. Additionalenvironmental loans are anticipatedto Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia (5).GOVERNMENT AID PROGRAMSGovernment-to-government aid programsalso are growing. A World Wildlife Fund-International survey estimated that,through 1990, Western governments hadcommitted $728 million for environmentalprojects, including $123 million throughthe European Community (EC), $105 millionfrom the United States, and about$500 million from other industrialized nations(6).Activities in Europe are coordinated bythe European Commission through the ECPhare Programme (Poland/Hungary Aidfor Restructuring of Economies, whichnow also includes Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia,Yugoslavia, and (East) Germany). InJuly 1990, the Commission produced an"Action Plan" that attempted to give someoverall direction to the diversity of aid programsof G-24 countries to the region. TheEC Phare Programme also administers ECfunds for the region.TRANSBOUNDARY PROBLEMSMany other European governments are activelyassisting Central European governmentswith their environmental problems.Finland is interested in reducing air andwater pollution in Poland and the SovietUnion. Sweden has allocated $180 millionfor assistance to the region, including $40million to Poland for sewage treatment onthe Vistula and Oder rivers and for air pollutioncontrol equipment (7).The countries of the region are lookingfor regional and international partners toparticipate in the effort to reduce water pollution.For example, Germany, Czechoslovakia,and the European Community havesigned an international treaty to protectthe 1,500-kilometer Elbe River, which risesin Czechoslovakia and flows through theGerman cities of Dresden and Magdeburgbefore emptying into the North Sea. Thesame model could be applied to other rivers,such as the Oder and the Danube (8).REGIONAL INITIATIVESThe cooperative effort to clean up the BalticSea is being revived. The Baltic MarineEnvironment Protection Commission (alsoknown as the Helsinki Commission, orHELCOM), which was originally establishedin 1980, met in 1988 and agreed toreduce emissions of pollutants to 50 percentof 1987 levels by 1995. That commitmentwas reinforced by a declaration inSeptember 1990 that was signed by Denmark,Finland, Germany, Poland, Sweden,the Soviet Union, Norway, Czechoslovakia,and the European Commission. An actionplan will identify 100 priority sites.The declaration commits the countries toinstall the best available technology for allimportant industries (including chemical,fertilizer, and pulp and paper industries)and to promote the installation and improvementof municipal sewage treatmentplants. The World Bank, European InvestmentBank, European Bank for Reconstructionand Development, and NordicInvestment Bank have all taken an activerole in the initiative (9).A variety of other new relationships arespringing up. For example, five countries—Austria,Czechoslovakia, Hungary,Italy, and Yugoslavia—have started the"Pentagonal Initiative." The group will beworking cooperatively to harmonize environmentalmonitoring and data systems,waste management, and nuclear safety(10). The United Nations Development Programmeand United Nations EnvironmentProgramme also have participated in projectsin the region.ronment ministry is preparing an act on the environmentalregulation of imported technology (68).The Impact of Higher PricesCountries with higher energy prices generally use energymuch more efficiently than those with lower energyprices. Among the industrialized (OECD)countries, roughly 50 percent of intercountry differencesin energy intensity can be explained by prices.A comparative study of energy conservation in theOECD countries and Central Europe found that priceswere the principal reason for Central Europe's higherenergy intensity (69).Poland, for example, has instituted higher energyprices and substantial shifts in the relative prices ofvarious fuels. The most dramatic change should be alarge increase in the price of coal relative to oil andgas. The price changes vary from industry to industry,but, in general, the price of liquid fuels relative to solidfuels should be reduced by 33-50 percent.The changes in relative prices of fuels should createmajor new incentives for fuel switching, although initialresponses may be slow because managers are notused to operating under hard budget constraints or respondingto price signals (70).Increased coal prices should encourage mines to producehigher quality coal, which will improve energy efficiencyand reduce emissions. If pollution charges are68Wortd Resources 1982-93

Regional Focus: Central Europe 5Box 5.4INFORMATION EXCHANGEWestern governments also are moving rapidlyto provide the information needed forimproved environmental management inthe region. One element of this effort is theRegional Environmental Center for Centraland Eastern Europe, which is locatedin Budapest and opened in September1990. Start-up funding of $12 million wasprovided by the United States, the EuropeanCommunity, Austria, Hungary, Canada,Finland, the Netherlands, andNorway. The center is operated independentlyand gives high priority to the roleof nongovernmental organizations. Itserves as a clearinghouse for the disseminationof information about Western environmentaltechnologies and managementstrategies, helps area governments establishenvironmental institutions, and mediatesbetween environmental groups andlocal governments (li).Western environmental groups andfoundations have been active in the region.The U.S. World Wildlife Fund/ConservationFoundation has started a programthat includes an effort to describethe role of environmental groups in theUnited States. The U.S. National Academyof Sciences has held joint workshops withits Polish and Romanian counterparts ontopics such as energy efficiency and naturalresource management. The Institute forEuropean Environmental Policy, Friendsof the Earth International, World EnvironmentCenter, Management Sciences forHealth, Environmental Law Institute,Rockefeller Brothers Fund, World ConservationUnion, Ecological Studies Institute,International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis, and many other groups also areactively interested in the region (12).TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERThe governments and industries of the regionface many critical choices about thekinds of environmental technologies theyshould choose. In a recent study underwrittenby the U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, Central Europe was singledout as an area where technology transfercould have potential impact and wherethere was an indigenous capability to utilizethe technology. The study also recommendedthat U.S. policymakers encourageall nations to adopt environmental standards,both health- and performancebased,covering imports and exports otproducts, equipment, and processes 03).The U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency and others have provided seedmoney to help the government of Polandstart independent, nonprofit energy efficiencycenters. The centers will identifyways to increase energy efficiency, help indigenousindustries develop their own energyefficiency programs, and expediteprivate initiatives for the introduction ofenergy conservation technologies (U). InMay 1991, the U.S. Department of Energyawarded a $7.7 million contract to a U.S.company to supply emissions control technologyto retrofit a boiler at the Skawinapower plant in Krakow, Poland. The retrofitproject is intended to demonstrate aU.S. technology that could be duplicatedfor other Central European coal-fired boilers05). Other U.S. projects in Krakow willtarget reduction of low-level emissionsfrom heating systems and small industry.In October 1990, the European Parliamentapproved ECU 30 million ($36 million)from the EC Phare budget for thetransfer of technology to Central Europe.The program is intended as a prelude totwo larger technology transfer projects (16).References and Notes1. Tamara Raye Crockett and Cynthia B.Schultz, "Environmental Protection Issuesin Eastern Europe," Internationa! EnvironmentReporter (June 1990), p. 261.2. "First NIB Environmental Investments inEastern Europe May Be Approved byFall/' International Environment Reporter(July 1990), p. 299.3. World Wildlife Fund-International (WWF-I), "Who Knows Where the Money Goes?A Survey of Investments in Central andEastern Europe" (WWF-I, Brussels, 1991),pp. 30-31.4. "Hungary, Poland Said at Top of List ForU.S. Aid to Stem Environmental Damage,"International Environment Reporter (June1990), p. 231.5. Richard Ackerman, Senior Policy Analyst,Environment Division, The World Bank,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personal communication).6. Op. cit. 3, p. vii.7. Op. cit. 3, pp. 2,17,22.8. "International Treaty to Protect ElbeSigned by Germans, Czechs, EC Official,"International Environment Reporter (October24,1990), pp. 436-437.9. Baltic Marine Environment ProtectionCommission, "The Ad Hoc High LevelTask Force: First Meeting," press release(November 1,1990) and Conference DocumentNo. 1, Annex A, pp. 5-6.10. "Five Nations Urge Regional Role in AddressingEnvironmental Issues," InternationalEnvironment Reporter (August 1990),p. 337.11. "Eastern, Central Europe To Get HelpFrom New Center on Environmental CleanUp," International Environment Reporter(September 1990), p. 357.12. World Wildlife Fund and The ConservationFoundation (WWF/CF), Central andEastern Europe Environmental Newsletter(WWF/CF, Washington, D.C., January 15,1991), pp. 1-6.13. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), Final Report to the Administrator ofthe Environmental Protection Agency from theInternational Environmental TechnologyTransfer Board (EPA, Washington, D.C., December1990), pp. 13-15.14. "Energy-Saving Center Planned To HelpSolve Poland's Environmental Crisis," InternationalEnvironment Reporter (September1990), p. 359.15. Peter Cover, Program Manager, TechnologyExports, Office of Fossil Energy, U.S.Department of Energy, September 1991(personal communication).16. Op. cit. 3, p. 6.increased and enforced, new incentives will be createdto use high-grade coals and clean low-grade coals (71).Effective price reform of the energy sector dependson more general changes in the structure of incentivesand constraints under which all enterprises operate.Management training may be an important facet of thisoverall change. For example, devising a program of energyaudits—designed to highlight possibilities forachieving greater fuel efficiency—could help give managersthe skills to respond to the new pattern of priceincentives (72).The environmental benefits of energy price reformshould be significant. Overall, it is estimated thatPoland's policy of increasing energy prices to worldprice levels should lead to a 15 percent reduction in airpollutants by 1993, compared to a projected increase of22 percent without this change (73).Managing Growth: The Case of Motor VehiclesThe rise of market economies will almost certainly createsubstantial new demand for automobiles.The possibility of a major new market for auto salesin Central Europe has not escaped the attention ofWestern auto makers. By early 1991, Fiat had projectsin Poland, Yugoslavia, and the Soviet Union totaling$8 billion and Volkswagen won a competition to acquirea substantial stake in Czechoslovakia's Skodaplant for $6.4 billion. Ford, General Motors, andSuzuki also had made investments in the region (74).World Resources 1992-9369

5 Regional Focus: Central EuropeThe net result may be creation of a new pan-Europeanproduction base (75). The growth hasn't been troublefree,however; automakers have often found themselvesfrustrated by problems with unusable plants,inadequate parts suppliers, unmotivated workers, anduncertain free-market reforms (76).Most assessments, nevertheless, suggest that autosales should grow rapidly in the region over the comingdecades. In Poland, for example, new car sales willprobably rise from the current 150,000 cars per year toover 300,000 cars in the next few years if the country'seconomy develops (77). This increase will likely cause asubstantial increase in air pollution, especially inurban centers such as Warsaw.Effective government policies can substantially reducethe environmental impact of new cars. For example,Poland's environment minister has decided thatall new cars sold in Poland within five years will be requiredto meet the emission limits of the EuropeanCommunity (EC). EC standards require catalytic converterson virtually all new cars by the end of 1992. Inaddition, all new cars will be fueled with unleaded gasoline,and diesel vehicles will be required to graduallylower particulate emissions (78).Periodic inspection and maintenance of all vehicleshas proven effective in Western countries, where iteventually can reduce emissions of hydrocarbons andcarbon monoxide by about 25 percent and NO X byabout 10 percent. Well-run programs in Central Europeshould be able to achieve similar reductions (79).In view of the health problems associated with lead,Central European countries may consider an aggressiveprogram to phase out lead in petrol. Options includereducing the lead content of leaded petrol to 0.15grams per liter as rapidly as possible, increasing theavailability of unleaded petrol (either through relativelyexpensive adjustments in refining capacity orthrough increased reliance on imports), and adjustingprices so that unleaded petrol is cheaper (or no moreexpensive) than leaded. Several European countrieshave increased the tax on leaded fuel and decreased iton unleaded fuel, so that overall taxes remain the same(at least initially) but the economic incentive to use unleadedfuel increases (80).Cars in Central Europe are now relatively energy-efficient,consuming about 8.7 liters per 100 km (27 milesper gallon) (81). That figure could easily decline in thecoming years if demand for larger cars increases. Nevertheless,improvements in automobile fuel economycould yield substantial energy savings. Increasing fueleconomy to 5 liters per 100 km (47 mpg), in combinationwith other energy saving measures, could reducetransportation energy demand in 2025 by 30 percent(about 1.5 exajoules). Even with this effort, the increasednumber of cars in the region could increase energydemand by 50 percent over current levels (82).Looking for Least-Cost SolutionsIn ordering priorities for environmental cleanup, thecountries of the region generally are looking for thelowest-cost options that will do the most to improvepublic health. The options include selected pollutioncontrols, fuel switching, and investments in energyconservation and energy efficiency, and—in a fewcarefully selected cases—the installation of flue gasdesulfurization equipment.Coping with Coal: Low-Cost OptionsAmong air pollutants from coal, particulates are usuallyconsidered at least as damaging to health as sulfurdioxide. Particulates are also relatively less expensiveto remove: in the case of high stacks, cutting particulateemissions by 60 percent from 1980 levels in Polandwould cost about $500 per metric ton; whereas reducingsulfur dioxide by 50 percent would cost about$1,900 per metric ton. For large energy consumers, onerelatively low-cost option would be to install and/orproperly operate electrostatic precipitators to removeparticulates (83). About 50 percent of sulfur dioxideemissions could be removed by coal washing, a relativelylow-cost option (84).Millions of Poland's homes and buildings are heatedwith small stoves that burn bituminous coal; flue gasesfrom these stoves are the predominant contributor toair pollution in towns (85). Poland and the other nationsof the region could save a great deal of energyand substantially reduce emissions by expanding districtheating systems and using combined heat andpower (CHP) production in major urban centers. Evenwhen burning low-quality coal, modern CHP stations—suchas one built in Stockholm that uses a relativelyexpensive pressurized fluidized bed combustiontechnology—can eliminate about 90 percent of sulfuremissions, provide district heating for large urbanareas and still provide the same efficiency for electricityproduction as a normal Polish lignite-fired plant(86). Using natural gas to power CHP plants would provideeven more substantial environmental benefits.There are several obstacles to CHP development, however,including cost and a lack of practical maintenanceexperience (87).Modern CHP plants in urban areas would reducethe need to transmit electricity over long distances.During long-distance transmission, Poland's nationalgrid loses power equivalent to about 10 percent of thecountry's entire electricity output. Cutting losses to the(West) German level could annually save about 6 millionmetric tons of bituminous coal and reduce sulfurdioxide emissions by about 120,000 metric tons (88).Flue Gas Desulfurization: A High-Cost Option. Animportant but costly option for major plants in the regionis to install flue gas control technologies thatwould substantially reduce emissions of sulfur dioxideand nitrogen oxides. This option seems realistic in(East) Germany. In 1983, the West German Bundestagpassed a law requiring all large power plants to installflue gas cleaning equipment. Most major electricitysuppliers have reduced their sulfur emissions by 70-75percent from 1983 levels and have a similar goal for nitrogenoxides.Even emissions from plants using low-quality lignitecan be dramatically reduced. When one (West) Ger-70World Resources 1992-93

Regional Focus: Central Europe 5man plant burning low-quality lignite was fitted withwet flue gas desulfurization equipment in 1988, theplant's sulfur dioxide emissions were cut by 85 percent,to 20,000 metric tons per year (89). Although expensiveand complex, the long-term benefits of thistechnology could be dramatic. Eight power stations in(East) Germany emit about 2.1 million metric tons ofsulfur dioxide annually (90), or about 40 percent of thetotal from that region (91).Installing flue gas controls on existing plants inother countries may not be practical because of thehigh cost. They may be practical for new plants (orplants under construction) such as Belchatow in Poland.By mid-1991, the Polish government had signeda contract to install desulfurization equipment in 2 ofthe 12 blocks at Belchatow, using a Dutch wet-limemethod; negotiations on other blocks were continuing.Polish officials estimate the installation will cut totalSO2 emissions from 337,000 metric tons to 277,000 metrictons, or about 18 percent from 1990 levels (92).Adjusting the Fuel MixOnce environmental factors are taken into account,switching to natural gas fuel appears to be a cost-effectiveoption, especially for the hundreds of small- andmedium-sized coal-fired industrial and building heatingsystems. The Soviet Union has been a substantialsupplier of oil and gas to Central Europe in the past,but those sales were under soft-currency trading termsthat are no longer available. Soviet oil and gas to CentralEurope must now be paid for in hard currency andat world market prices, a major new economic burdenfor the region. Nevertheless, the Soviet Union has thepipelines in place and the spare capacity to export substantialvolumes of gas to Central Europe (93).Converting a boiler from coal to gas fuel eliminatesall emissions of sulfur dioxide and nearly all particulates,reduces emissions of nitrogen oxides by about 45percent, and emits about 57 percent less carbon dioxide(a major greenhouse gas) per unit of energy (94). Inaddition, it provides substantial savings over coal inthe maintenance requirements of a power plant.As a possible supplement to imported natural gas,Central Europe could exploit reserves of coalbed methane.Coalbed methane would be a competitivelypriced fuel that would benefit the environment by reducingemissions of methane (also a major greenhousegas). Extracting coalbed methane would also increasemine safety by lowering methane concentrations in themines (95).Nuclear Energy: A High-Cost Option. Nuclear energyholds the attraction of emitting few pollutants into theatmosphere; but it is costly, technically difficult to operate,creates a dangerous waste product, and—as theChernobyl disaster vividly demonstrated—carriesgrave risks for the public. Over the past two decades,23 nuclear plants—using either Soviet technology ordesign—were built in the region. Considerable concernhas been expressed about the quality of the materialsin those plants. Until recently, there was virtuallyno exchange of information among operators about incidentsor operations experiences, a process consideredvital to the safety of Western reactors (96).It was not until 1990, for example, that (East) Germanyrevealed that the Bruno Leuschner nuclear plantnear Greifswald suffered a near-disaster in 1975, when11 of 12 cooling pumps at the reactor failed during afire (97). The German government has closed down allfive Soviet-built reactors at Greifswald and a pilotplant in Rheinsberg; Chancellor Helmut Kohl told theGerman Bundestag in October 1990 that it was "irresponsibleto operate them after Chernobyl" (98).The Chernobyl disaster created great anxiety overthe safety of nuclear power plants in the region. Thegovernment of Austria, for example, is seeking the closureof the Czechoslovak nuclear station at Borovnica.Austria has offered technical advice on decommissioningand compensation for the electric power thatwould be lost by closure of the plant (99). Nevertheless,Czechoslovakia is going ahead with the constructionof two plants (Temelin 1 and 2) and probably with twomore (Temelin 3 and 4) (100). In addition, the stateownedElectricite de France has also proposed thebuilding of two 900-megawatt nuclear plants in Hungary(101).Energy ConservationEnergy efficiency improvements hold great promise inthe region. In Poland, for example, conservation optionsin industry include: in the iron and steel industry,replacement of the open hearth furnace with thebasic oxygen furnace; and in the chemicals industry,modernizing refinery and petrochemical equipment.Opportunities in the residential sector include insulatingbuildings, metering individual houses and apartments,market pricing of energy, and district heating.In the public transportation area, use of mass transitcould be encouraged and fuel efficiency rates maintained(102) (103).The most cost-effective investments, according toone study of Poland, would be improving space heatingmanagement, reducing electricity transmissionand distribution losses, insulating buildings, producingbetter automation and measurement devices, improvingexisting industrial equipment, and cogeneratingelectricity and heat. Greater energy savingscould be achieved, at a net cost, through such optionsas railway electrification, improved coal quality, andnew industrial technology (104). (See Table 5.6.)If Poland were to aggressively implement an energyconservation strategy, it could save about 40 percent ofcurrent total energy demand by the year 2005. To dothat, it would have to invest about 1.25 percent of itsgross domestic product annually into energy efficiency,but that would be less than the cost of supplyingthe same amount of energy (105).An effective, comprehensive effort to improve energyefficiency could hold energy demand in the regionat the current annual level (about 18 exajoules)through the year 2025. Without such an effort, energyWorld Resources 1992-9371

5 Regional Focus: Central EuropeTable 5.6 Monetary Savings/Cost of SelectedEnergy Saving Options in Poland, 2005Energy Savings OptionsOptions That Save MoneyHeating efficiencyimprovementsReduction in distributionand transmission lossesBuilding insulationAutomation and measurementsimprovementExisting industrial equipmentCogenerationOptions That Cost MoneyRailway electrificationCoal quality improvementNet SavingsPer Gigajoule Saved(in1984zlotys)3252232071386845(187)(427)PotentialEnergy Savings(petajoules)562064265628359089681,115Source: S. Sitnicki, K. Budzinski, J. Juda, etal., "Poland: Opportunities forCarbon Emissions Control," paper prepared for the U.S. Agency forInternational Development (Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific NorthwestLaboratories, Richland, Washington, 1990), p. 15.Note: 1 gigajoule = 1,000,000,000 joules = 947,800 Btus;1 petajoule = 1,000,000 gigajoules.demand can be expected to increase by 70 percent (toabout 31 exajoules annually) by 2025 (106).Water PollutionCost is a daunting problem that limits efforts to reducewater pollution in the region. As part of the Germangovernment's initial attack on environmental problemsin the five new eastern states, a $1.6 billion pilotprogram was approved in late 1990 that included 15projects designed to improve industrial wastewaterhandling and sewage treatment (107).In the short run, industrial processes could be carefullyexamined for opportunities to reduce the amountof waste generated. To reinforce that strategy, governmentscould create funding mechanisms and economicincentives for investments in pollution control equipment.Alternatively, they could impose substantial, enforceablefees on emissions, making it more costeffectivefor industries (or municipalities) to invest inwaste minimization or treatment facilities rather thancontinue to pollute.In Poland, the discharge of saline minewater pollutesrivers. Proposals to divert the minewater throughpipelines or build a desalination plant may be too expensive.Removing price subsidies, which would forceinefficient mines to close, and phasing in a system of feeson discharges may prove to be the best answer (108).Developing Effective Laws and RegulationsLed by Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, thecountries of the region are slowly beginning to overhaulexisting laws and regulations. For example:• In Hungary, 1991 laws required firms building or expandingplants to submit environmental impact assessmentsbefore receiving construction permits; requiredall vehicles to undergo annual emission inspections; offeredtax incentives to vehicles with catalytic converters;and reequipped about 5,000 government vehiclesto reduce lead emissions. The government was alsoplanning to devise a new tax or fee system to stem thefurther degradation of air and water resources and afreedom-of-information act that would allow public accessto government data and allow the government topublish material on polluting enterprises (109).• In Czechoslovakia, three environmental agencies areactively drafting new legislation, despite uncertaintiesabout the distribution of power between the federaland republic governments. The three agencies havecollectively drafted a general environmental law thatanticipates command-and-control laws and environmentaltaxes; gives citizens the right to get informationabout the environment and makes companies obligedto provide it; allows citizens to claim rights under theenvironmental laws in court; and requires environmentalimpact assessments before the initiation of any constructionactivity, use of natural resources, or productionof products. The agencies have also produceda draft air pollution law that contains both taxes andcommand-and-control requirements, and a draft wastelaw similar to the U.S. and European Community programs(110).The drafting of new environmental laws has beendifficult. For instance, the laws anticipate giving thepublic access to information, but there is, as yet, littleexperience with developing and using that information.Similarly, there is little experience in preparingenvironmental impact assessments and little ability onthe part of local governments or private organizationsto analyze and respond to such assessments (ill).• East Germany became subject to the environmentallaws of West Germany and the European Communitywhen it formally joined West Germany in October1990. The European Commission's waste management,water quality, and air pollution provisions willbe enforced in East Germany in 1996 (112).In addition to laws, new regulations that provide incentivesto invest in pollution control equipment orstronger penalties for polluters are being developed.Poland provides incentives for environmental protection,including a three-year tax exemption for joint venturesto manufacture pollution control equipment anda 100 percent tax deduction for the purchase and installationof pollution control equipment (113).Many of the countries in the region already haveelaborate systems of fees and fines in place, but regulationshave been weakly enforced or fines too small tobe effective. Beginning January 1,1991, the Polish Ministryof Environment increased fees for resource use 15-fold and fines 27-fold, with further adjustments forinflation. The success of these new fees and fines maydepend on the reform of enterprises (including greatercompetitive pressures and the use of "hard" budgetsthat do not allow managers to pass on the cost of finesto customers or the state) and the creation of local governmentalunits with reasonably broad tax bases andthe staff and legal resources to enforce the regulations(114).72World Resources 1992-93

Regional Focus: Central Europe 5This Chapter was written by World Resources Senior Editor RobertLivernash. The box on environment and health in Central Europewas written by Barry S. Levy, Director of the Program forEnvironment and Health at Management Sciences for Health, 1Boston;and Clyde Hertzman, Director, Division of Occupational andEnvironmental Health in the Department of Health Care and Epidemiology,The University of British Columbia, Vancouver.References and Notes1. Marlise Simons, "Rising Iron Curtain ExposesHaunting Veil of Polluted Air," NewYork Times (April 8,1990), p. 14.2. Marlise Simons, "Pollution's Toll in EasternEurope: Stumps Where Great Trees OnceGrew," New York Times (March 19,1990), p.9.3. Marlise Simons, "Central Europe's CoalWasteland: Progress, Yes, but at WhatCost?" New York Times (April 1,1990), p. 1.4. Celestine Bohlen, "Through a Thick Veil ofSoot, Romanian City Faces Future," NewYork Times (March 5,1990), p. 1.5. Marlise Simons, "New Taint on East GermanPollution," New York Times (September9,1990), p. 20.6. The State of the Hungarian Environment, DonHinrichsen and Gyorgy Enyedi, eds.(Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Ministryfor Environment and Water Management,and the Hungarian Central Statistical Office,Budapest, 1990), p. 51.7. World Wildlife Fund and The ConservationFoundation (WWF/CF), Central and EasternEurope Environmental Newsletter (WWF/CF,Washington, D.C.January 15,1991), p. 4.8. Josef Vavrousek, The Environment in Czechoslovakia(State Commission for Science, Technologyand Investments, Prague, May1990), p. 22.9. The World Bank, "Poland EnvironmentStrategy Study," draft summary, conclusionsand recommendations (The WorldBank, Washington, D.C., 1991), p. iii.10. The World Bank, "Poland—The Environment,"draft (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1989), pp. 59,68.11. Stanislaw Gomulka, Growth, Innovation andReform in Eastern Europe (University of WisconsinPress, Madison, Wisconsin, 1986),pp. 34-35.12. Jeremy Russell, "Environmental Issues inEastern Europe: Setting an Agenda" (RoyalInstitute of International Affairs and WorldConservation Union, London, 1990), p. 21.13. Zbigniew Bochniarz, "Economic Instrumentsof Environmental Policy in East EuropeanCountries" (Hubert H. HumphreyInstitute of Public Affairs, University ofMinnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, 1989),pp. 1-4.14. William U. Chandler, The Changing Role ofthe Market in National Economies: WorldWatchPaper 72 (WorldWatch Institute, Washington,D.C., 1986), pp. 6-7.15. Ibid.,pA7.16. Janos Kornai, Contradictions and Dilemmas:Studies on the Socialist Economy and Society(MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., and London,1986), pp. 33-51.17. Op. cit. 14, p. 19.18. Zbigniew Bochniarz, Visiting Professor, HubertH. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs,University of Minnesota, Minneapolis,Minnesota, 1991 (personal communication).19. Piotr Wilczynski, "Environmental Managementin Centrally-Planned Non- MarketEconomies of Eastern Europe," World BankEnvironment Working Paper No. 35 (TheWorld Bank, Washington, D.C., July 1990),p. 9.20. Ibid., p. 11.21. Ibid., p. 8.22. Richard Ackerman, Senior Policy Analyst,Environment Division, The World Bank,Washington, D,C, 1991 (personal communication).23. Op. cit. 12, p. 22.24. Op. cit. 19, p. 39.25. Duncan Fisher, East European Project Coordinator,The Ecological Studies Institute,London, 1991 (personal communication).26. Miklos Persanyi, Senior Advisor, HungarianMinistry for Environment, Budapest,1991 (personal communication).27. Zygmunt Fura, "Institutions: The PolishEcological Club," Environment, Vol. 27, No.9 (November 1985), pp. 4-5.28. William U. Chandler, Senior Scientist,Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific NorthwestLaboratories, Washington, D.C., 1991(personal communication).29. Jean Pierre Lasota, "Darkness at Noon:Time is Running Out for Poland's Environment,"The Sciences, Vol. 27 (New YorkAcademy of Sciences, New York, July-August1987), p. 28.30. Hilary F. French, Green Revolutions: EnvironmentalReconstruction in Eastern Europe andthe Soviet Union: WorldWatch Paper No. 99(Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C.,November 1990), pp. 6,32- 33.31. Op. cit. 28.32. Op. cit. 10, p. 12.33. Op. cit. 12, p. 22.34. Randolf Granzer, "Perestroika in Energy:The Soviet Union and Eastern Europe," TheOECD Observer (December 1988-January1989), p. 27.35. Stefan Bjorklund, "Big Sacrifices Needed toCut East German Sulphur Emissions," AcidMagazine, No. 8 (September 1989), p. 20.36. Bedrich Moldan, Environmental Scientist,Prague, Czechoslovakia, 1991 (personalcommunication).37. Op. cit. 12, p. 7.38. Op. cit.S.39. Op. cit. 12, p. 10.40. World Resources Institute in collaborationwith the United Nations Environment Programmeand the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, World Resources 1990-91(Oxford University Press, New York, 1990),p. 352.41. Op. cit. 12, p. 13.42. Op. cit. 9, p. vi.43. Michael P. Walsh and Hans Apitz, "MotorVehicle Pollution in Poland: The Problem atPresent and A Strategy for Progress," draftpaper prepared for The World Bank (October1990), p. 2.44. Ibid., p. 4.45. Michael P. Walsh, "Motor Vehicle Pollutionin Hungary: A Strategy for Progress," paperprepared for The World Bank (June 1990),p. 3.46. Ibid., p. 4.47. International Union for Conservation of Natureand Natural Resources (IUCN), EastEuropean Program, Environmental Status Reports:1988/1989, Vol. 1 (IUCN, Gland, Switzerlandand Cambridge, U.K., 1990), p. 106.48. Op. cit. 12, pp. 16-17.49. Op. cit. 10, p. 48.50. Jerzy Janota-Bzowski, Air Component Manager,Ministry of Environmental Protection,Warsaw, Poland, 1991 (personal communication).51. James R. Newman, "Draft Joint EnvironmentalStudy: Volume 2, Technical Report,"prepared for the U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment and The World Bank(KBN Engineering and Applied Sciences,Gainesville, Florida, 1991), p. 5-1.52. Op. cit. 8, pp. 28,33.53. Op. cit. 6, pp. 70, 75.54. Op. cit. 30, p. 17.55. Op. cit. 51, p. 5-6.56. Christer Agren, "Forest decline continues,"Acid News (December 1990), p. 4.57. Op. cit. 12, p. 20.58. Op. cit. 10, p. 87.59. Op. cit. 10, p. 58.60. "Measuring Deposition...and CalculatingWhere it Comes From," Acid Magazine, No.8 (September 1989), pp. 7-8.61. Op. cit. 30, pp. 16-17.62. Stanislav Kolar and William U. Chandler,"Energy and Energy Conservation inEastern Europe: Two Scenarios for the Future,"paper prepared for the U.S. Agencyfor International Development Global EnergyEfficiency Initiative (Battelle MemorialInstitute, Pacific Northwest Laboratories,Washington, D.C., n.d.), pp. 12-14.63. Ministry of Environmental Protection, NaturalResources, and Forestry, "National EnvironmentalPolicy" (Ministry of EnvironmentalProtection, Natural Resources, andForestry, Warsaw, 1990), pp. 12-13.64. Op. cit. 9, pp. vii-viii.65. Op. cit. 12, p. 30.66. Bronislaw Kaminski, "Poland's EnvironmentalProblems and Priorities," paper preparedfor the International EnvironmentForum Meeting, World Environment Center,New York, March 13,1990, p. 6.67. "Greenpeace Says Poland Being Used AsDump for Industrialized Nations' Waste,"International Environment Reporter (October24,1990), p. 438.68. World Wildlife Fund-International (WWF-I), "Who Knows Where the Money Goes? ASurvey of Investments in Central andEastern Europe" (WWF-I, Brussels, 1991), p.41.69. Mark Kosmo, Money to Burn ? The High Costsof Energy Subsidies (World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., 1987), p. 29.70. The World Bank, "Poland Energy MarketDevelopment," Energy and EnvironmentOperations Division Report No. 8224-POL(The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1991),pp. 23-24.71. Ibid., p. 26.72. Ibid., p.19.73. Op. cit. 9, p. viii.74. Op. cit. 68, pp. vii, 35-39.75. Op. cit. 25.World Resources 1992-9373

5 Regional Focus: Central Europe76. Bradley A. Stertz and Terence Roth, "ToWestern Industry, East Bloc Auto Market isLosing Some Luster," Wall Street Journal (November14,1990), p. 1.77. Op. tit. 43, pp. 2-3.78. Op. tit. 43, p. 13.79. Op. tit. 43, pp. 14-15.80. Op. tit.45, p. 14.81. Op. tit.62, p. 14.82. Op. tit.62, p. 14.83. Op. tit. 9, pp. xx-xxi.84. American Gas Association, "An Evaluationof Alternative Control Strategies to RemoveSulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides and CarbonDioxide at Existing Large Coal-Fired Facilities"(American Gas Association,Arlington, Virginia, 1989), pp. 3,6.85. Op. tit.25.86. Stefan Bjorklund, "Inefficient energy use atroot of Poland's environmental problems,"Acid Magazine (September 1989), p. 11.87. Op.cif.50.88. Op. tit.86.89. Stefan Bjorklund, "West German coal andlignite power stations come clean," AcidMagazine (September 1989), pp. 12-13.90. Bo Thunberg, "Air pollution in the GDR,"Acid Magazine (September 1989), p. 19.91. United Nations (U.N.) The State of TransboundaryAir Pollution: 1989 Update (U.N.,New York, 1990), p. 17.92. Op. tit.50.93. Op. tit.12, p. 28.94. Op. tit.84, p. 2.95. Raymond C. Pilcher, "Opportunities for theDevelopment and Utilization of CoalbedMethane in Poland," abstract of paper presentedat conference on Global Perspectiveson Coalbed Methane, the Coalbed MethaneForum (Lakewood, Colorado, May 9,1991).96. Marlise Simons, "At East Europe NuclearPlants, Blame for Soviets," New York Times(June 24,1990), p. 6.97. Ibid.98. Jeffrey H. Michel, Consulting Engineer,Schuttertal/Dorlinbach, Germany, 1991(personal communication).99. Op. tit.68, p. 16.100. Stanislav Kolar, President, Kolar Associates,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personal communication).101. Op. cit. 68, p. 19.102. S. Sitnicki, K. Budzinski, J. Juda, et al., "Poland:Opportunities for Carbon EmissionsControl," paper prepared for the U.S.Agency for International Development(Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific NorthwestLaboratories, Richland, Washington,1990), p. 13.103. Op. tit. 25.104. Op. cit. 102, pp. 14-15.105. Op. cit. 102, pp. 13-14.106. Op. tit.62, pp. 18, 24.107. "Government Approves 35 Projects to Monitor,Clean Up Pollution in East," InternationalEnvironment Reporter (November 7,1990), p. 463.108. Op. cit. 9, p. xxiii.109. "Environment Impact Assessment, VehicleEmission Requirements Planned," InternationalEnvironment Reporter (December 5,1990), pp. 503-504.110. Margaret Bowman and David Hunter, "EnvironmentalLaw-Drafting in Czechoslovakia"(Environmental Law Institute,Washington, D.C., 1991), pp. 9-10.111. Ibid., pp. 6-7.112. "European Community Gives East GermanyUntil 1996 to Comply with Regulations,"International Environment Reporter(September 1990), p. 355.113. Op. cit. 102, p. 17.114. Op. cit. 9, pp. xi-xiii.74World Resources 1992-93

6. Population andHuman DevelopmentPeople are a precious, yet often neglected, resource.To a large extent this is because their sheer numbersstrain the systems designed to serve them. The worldpopulation has doubled in the past 40 years and maydouble again in the next century, perhaps approachingstability at about 11 billion by the year 2100. Most ofthis increase will take place in the developing world.Without a great deal of effort and ingenuity, many ofthese new citizens will degrade natural resources andnot be offered the health and educational resourcesnecessary to reach their potential.Humanitarian concerns aside, building a healthy, educated,stable population makes economic sense and isa chief component of sustainable development. (SeeChapter 1, "Dimensions of Sustainable Development.")The newly industrialized countries—Asia'sfour tigers—made remarkable economic progress bydeveloping an educated workforce as the basis for amanufacturing boom. Short on natural resources,South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwanused their human resources to bound out of poverty.Other developing countries are following suit; ideally,they will avoid some of the environmental pitfalls experiencedby Asia's tigers. (See Chapter 4, "SustainableDevelopment Case Study: Rapidly IndustrializingCountries.")In its recent series of Human Development Reports, theUnited Nations Development Programme has assertedthat although economic development generally improvesthe well-being of a population, other factors arealso important—specifically, increased schooling andhealth care. This gives hope to low-income countriesand countries suffering economic stagnation that theycan improve their citizens' lives by directing limited financialresources into primary education and healthcare programs.Of the roughly 37 million people who died in developingcountries annually in the mid-1980s, almost 37percent were children. This shocking figure comparesto developed countries where only 3 percent of the annualdeaths are of children. Mortality figures—used asthe most reliable measure of health—show only themost severe cases of ill-health and do not indicate amuch larger population of sick, malnourished, and listlesschildren. Most of these children are sickened bydiseases that can be easily prevented or cured withproper sanitation, nutrition, and vaccines. However,these basic needs are still unavailable to many childrenin developing countries. Striking progress has beenmade in vaccinating children and in providing simpletreatment for diarrhea, the biggest cause of deathWorld Resources 1992-9375

6 Population and Human DevelopmentTable 6.1 Estimated and Projected Population Size by Region, 1950-2025Region1950Population (millions)1970 1990 200020251950Percent Share of World Population1970 1990 20002025World TotalIndustrialized countriesDeveloping countries2,5168321,6843,6981,0492,6495,2921,2074,0866,2611,2644,9978,5041,3547,150100.033.166.9100.028.471.6100.022.877.2100.020.279.8100.015.984.1AfricaNorth AmericaLatin AmericaAsiaEuropeOceaniaU.S.S.R.2221661661,377393131803622262862,102460192436422764483,113498262898672955383,713510303081,5973327574,912515383528.86.66.654.715.60.57.29.86.17.756.812.40.56.612.15.28.558.89.40.55.513.84.78.659.38.10.54.918.83.98.957.86.10.44.1Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1990 (United Nations, New York 1991), pp. 226-233, 244-245, 252-255,264-265,274-275,and 582-583.among children of the developing world. (See FocusOn Children's Health, below.)Although it might seem that reducing child mortalitywould increase population growth, the opposite isthe case if countries also develop economically. Ascountries develop, they go through a process called demographictransition in which living standards areraised, child mortality is reduced, and fertility declines.This transition can be speeded by policies thatpromote education, health care, and use of contraceptives.CONDITIONS AND TRENDSGlobal TrendsPOPULATION TRENDSThe different prospects for the industrialized and developingcountries are nowhere more evident than intheir respective population sizes. By 1990, of theworld's 5.3 billion people, 4.1 billion—77 percent—lived in the developing world; 1.2 billion inhabited theindustrialized countries. (See Table 6.1.)The difference in growth rates of developing and industrializedcountries is even more dramatic. Populationgrowth in the industrialized countries has beenrelatively modest, rising about 15 percent over the1970-90 period. In those same two decades, the populationof developing countries grew by almost 55 percent,from 2.65 billion to 4.1 billion. The disparity innumbers will widen by 2025, when population in industrializedcountries is projected to be 1.35 billionand 7.15 billion in developing countries (or about 84percent of world population).This burst of population growth in the developingworld is easily explained. Before World War II, bothbirth rates and death rates were high in these countries,which kept growth low. Since then, rapid improvementsin health care and sanitation have causeddeath rates to plummet, while birth rates have remainedhigh.Large differences in the age structure of populationsin the industrialized and developing worlds help accountfor the projected widening of the population disparities.In the industrialized countries, the proportionsof people in each age range are roughly equal,with a slight bulge among the postwar baby-boomgeneration, which is now 30^15 years old. In the developingcountries, far more people are in the young agegroups, which will swell the number of children borneach year as the increasing number of young womenof childbearing age have children. (See World Resources1990-91, pp. 51-55.)Declining Growth Rates, Increasing NumbersFor several decades, population planners have focusedon reducing population growth rates in developingcountries. In many regions, that effort has been relativelysuccessful, as Figure 6.1 suggests; the major exceptionhas been Africa, where growth rates since themid-1960s have increased.Declining birth rates, however, belie the immensemomentum already built into the system; that is, eachwoman is having fewer children, but many morewomen are giving birth. By the year 2000, over 90 millionpeople—more than Mexico's current population—will be added annually to the population of the developingcountries (l). (See Figure 6.2.) Thereafter, thenumber of people added each year will decreaseslowly with world population probably stabilizing ata projected 11.2 billion in 2100 (2).Fertility and Contraception TrendsAs Figure 6.3 indicates, total fertility rates in the industrializedcountries have remained roughly at or below2 during the 1980s and into 1990. (The fertility rate isthe average number of children women bear in theirlifetime.) Within Asia, the experience has been varied.Largely because of China's strong population controlprograms, which resulted in a total fertility rate of 2.3,rates in East Asia have declined dramatically over thepast four decades. Some countries in South and SoutheastAsia—especially Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia,Sri Lanka, and India—also have made significant progress.Fertility rates in Latin America followed a similarpath, but rates in Africa have remained virtually unchangedsince the 1950s (3).With large numbers of women now in or enteringtheir reproductive ages, the downward trend in birthrates will be enormously difficult to maintain. Populationassistance programs can play an important role indeveloping countries. Because of past investments in76World Resources 1992-93

Population and Human Development 6Figure 6.1 Average Annual PopulationGrowth Rates, 1960-65 and 1985-90Figure 6.2 Projected Annual Increment to thePopulation, 1950-2020(percent)1960-651985-90(millions)100-— Industrialized Developing3-2.5-2-1.5-1 -0.5-IndustrializedDevelopinAfrica Latin America EuropeNorth America Asia OceaniaSource: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1990(United Nations, New York, 1991), pp. 112-115.Note: Excludes U.S.S.R.Figure 6.3 Total Fertility Rates,1950-851950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1991(United Nations, New York, 1991), pp. 228-231.Figure 6.4 Trends in Contraceptive Use inDeveloping Regions, 1960-90(births per woman)— Industrialized Developing — Africa- - Latin America Asia8-- East Asia - - Latin America_ _ - -6-/4-/2-(percent of married couplesusin 3 contraception)100-Africa —South Asia80-60-40-20-1950 1960 1970 1980o-1960 197019801990Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1990(United Nations, New York, 1991), pp. 176-193.population programs, the world already has 400 millionfewer people than it otherwise would, accordingto one study, and will have 4 billion fewer people duringthe next century than it would have had withoutsuch programs (4).Increased access to effective contraception has beenan important factor in fertility declines in developingcountries, most notably in Asia and Latin America. InChina, an estimated 71 percent of married women areusing contraception, a figure that matches the rate inEurope and is far higher than the estimated 44 percentrate in the rest of the developing world. Contraceptionalso is now widely used among married women in rapidlyindustrializing countries such as Thailand (68 percent),Republic of Korea (77 percent), Taiwan (78 percent),and Brazil (66 percent). It is still rarely used,Source: Thomas Merrick, U.S. Population Assistance: A Continued Priority forthe 1990s? (Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 17.Notes: South Asia includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran,Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. East Asia includes China, HongKong, Korea (Dem. and Rep.), Macao, and Mongolia.however, in many African countries (5). (See Figure6.4.)Investments in the welfare of women can have astriking impact on population and health trends. InThailand, female literacy has reached 90 percent, whilethe fertility rate has declined significantly, and the populationgrowth rate has dropped to 1.5 percent a year.(See Chapter 16, "Population and Human Development,"Tables 16.1 and 16.5.) Investments in familyplanning and health services also can greatly benefitwomen: in Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Botswana, and elsewhere,government efforts to encourage participatory,community-based health programs have helped to reducematernal mortality substantially (6).World Resources 1992-9377

6 Population and Human DevelopmentTable 6.2 MortalityRegion, 1965-90of Children Under Age 5 byTable 6, .3 Infant Mortality by Region,1965-90Region1965-70Under 5 Mortality Rate {a}1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90PercentChangefrom1965-70to1985-90Region1965-70Infant Mortality Rate {a}1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90PercentChangefrom1965-70to1985-90World Total 161Industrializedcountries 32Developingcountries 18414426164131241491181913410517119-35-47-35World Total 102Industrializedcountries 26Developingcountries 1169322105861997791689701578-31-42-33AfricaNorth AmericaLatin AmericaAsiaEuropeOceaniaU.S.S.R.2612613117135673623321115151285234203179913922473718213881241740311631178108153327-38-58-40-37-57-51-25AfricaNorth AmericaLatin AmericaAsiaEuropeOceaniaU.S.S.R.1492291110304826137188199244126126147091193528116116183153026103105472132624-31-55-41-35-57-46-8Source: United Nations (U.N.), Mortality of Children Under Age 5: WorldEstimates and Projections 1950-2025 (U.N., New York, 1988), pp. 30-35.Note: a: Under-five mortality rate is defined as the annual number of deaths ofchildren under five years of age per 1,000 live births. Mortality rates are theannual average for each five-year period shown.Some governments have begun to recognize thatmen are an important audience for family planning informationand education. The Republic of Korea beganto focus on men in the 1970s, and the number of mentaking responsibility for family planning has risen dramaticallysince then (7).HEALTH TRENDSThe broadest measures of human health—life expectancyat birth and mortality among children under age5 and among infants under age 1, for example—showimprovement in all developing regions (although notall countries) over the past few decades. Reductions inunder-five and infant mortality have been impressivein all regions; both have dropped by about one third indeveloping countries as a whole. (See Tables 6.2 and6.3.)In absolute terms, nevertheless, stark contrasts remainin the health prospects of people living in theworld's poorest and richest nations. In Africa, mortalityof children under 5 is now roughly 147 per 1,000live births, which is nearly 15 times higher than therate in the United States and Canada (8).Environmental pollutants pose hazards to humanhealth. Human exposure to chemical contaminants infood, indoor air pollutants, hazardous wastes, and ionizingradiation all have significant health effectsthroughout the world. Moreover, in the developingworld, malnutrition, inadequate water supplies andsanitation, poor hygienic practices, and overcrowdedliving conditions all contribute to the incidence of diarrhealand infectious diseases.Chemical, industrial, and nuclear accidents pose potentiallyserious health hazards. The most tragic recentexamples have been the chemical accident at Bhopal,India, and the nuclear accident at Chernobyl in the SovietUnion. Overall, it is estimated that more than 200serious chemical accidents occur annually in the industrializedcountries alone (9).Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1990on Diskette (United Nations, New York, 1991).Note: a: Infant mortality rate is defined as the annual number of deaths ofinfants under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births. Mortality rates are theannual average for each five-year period shown.Acute pesticide poisonings are a major health problemin developing countries. The World Health Organization(WHO) estimates that worldwide each yearthere are more than 1 million accidental acute pesticidepoisonings and more than 20,000 accidentaldeaths. An additional 2 million cases and 200,000deaths are thought to be suicides rather than accidents(10).Major Causes of Death and DiseaseOn a global level, about 48 million people died annuallyduring the mid 1980s, including about 11 millionin the industrial world and about 37 million in the developingworld. Three fourths of all deaths in the industrialworld were caused by diseases of the circulatorysystem (54 percent) and cancer (21 percent) (11) (12).Statistics on causes of death in developing countriesare often unavailable or unreliable. Using availabledata and indirect methods, WHO has estimated that ofthe nearly 37 million people (23.3 million adults and13.5 million children) who died in developing countriesin 1985,44 percent (16 million) died of infectiousand parasitic diseases (13). (See Table 6.4.)Deaths of ChildrenOf those who died annually in developing countriesaround 1985, almost 37 percent (13.5 million) were childrenunder age 5 compared to about 3 percent in industrializedcountries (14) (15). For 1990, WHO estimatedthat about 12.9 million children were dying annuallyin developing countries. Infectious and parasiticdiseases in 1990 killed about 9.8 million childrenbefore their fifth birthday. The most common causes ofdeath in developing countries are respiratory infections,neonatal and perinatal complications, and diarrhea(16).78World Resources 1992-93

Population and Human Development 6Cancer and AIDSThere has been less progress, and occasionally regression,in the fight against some diseases. For example,cancer, which causes more than 20 percent of thedeaths in industrialized countries, is increasing primarilybecause of an increase in the average age of the population,improved control of other health problems,and increased use of tobacco (17).Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), firstrecognized in 1981, has rapidly become a major globalhealth problem. AIDS is caused by the human immunodeficiencyvirus (HIV). Some 15-20 percent of allthose infected are expected to develop AIDS within 5years; within 10 years, about 50 percent of those infectedwill develop the disease. By early 1990, an estimated5-10 million people were infected with HIVworldwide—about half in sub-Saharan Africa and halfin Europe and North America—and about 600,000 clinicalcases of AIDS had occurred in adults. The numberof cases was expected to reach 1 million by the end of1991 and several million by the end of the century (18).Vector-Borne DiseasesMany vector-borne diseases—those carried by other organisms—arepervasive problems in some regions ofthe developing world. The most serious diseases includemalaria, schistosomiasis, and other diseases suchas lymphatic filariasis, and onchocerciasis.• Malaria occurs in some 100 countries or areas; clinicalcases are estimated at 107 million a year and deaths atabout 1 million a year, with about three quarters of alldeaths occurring among children under 5. Data on thenumber of malaria cases and malaria mortality aresketchy; there appears to be an upward trend in thenumber of cases in the Americas and some Asian countries(19). WHO estimated that malaria claimed 800,000children in 1990, up about 7 percent from its 750,000estimate for 1985 (20). The increase is partially due tothe growing resistance of malaria-carrying mosquitosto insecticides and of the Plasmodium parasites to antimalarialdrugs (21).• Schistosomiasis is caused by schistosome parasites,which multiply in snails and are disseminated intofreshwater and thence into humans, where they causehemorrhaging and tissue damage in the bladder andintestine. The disease is endemic in 76 countries.About 200,000 people die of schistosomiasis each year;about 200 million are infected; and about 600 millionare at risk (22).• Filariasis is a group of disorders caused by infectionfrom a filarial worm transmitted by bloodsucking flies.The infection leads to inflammation of the lymph system.The disease affects 76 countries. About 90 millionpeople are infected; about 900 million people are atrisk (23).• Onchocerciasis—also known as river blindness—iscaused by infection by the filarial worm Onchocerca volvulus.Symptoms include dermatitis and eye lesionsthat can lead to blindness (24). The disease is endemicin 26 countries in Africa, 2 in the eastern Mediterranean,and 6 in Latin America. An estimated 17.6-17.8Table 6.4 Estimated Causes of Death inIndustrialized and Developing Countries forAdults and Children over Age 5, mid-1980s(in thousands)Cause of DeathInfectious and Parasitic DiseasesDiarrheal diseasesTuberculosisAcute respiratory diseasesMalariaSchistosomiasisChronic Obstructive Lung DiseasesCirculatory and Other Degenerative Diseases(heart disease, cerebrovasculardisease, diabetes)CancerOtherAll CausesNumber of DeathsIndustrialized Developing506X40368XX3855,9302,2931,93111,0456,5001,0002,7002,0002502002,3006,5002,5005,50023,300Source: Alan D. Lopez, "Causes of Death: An Assessment of Global Patternsof Mortality Around 1985," World Health Statistics Quarterly, Vol. 43, No. 2(1990), pp. 93, 98.Note: The total for industrialized countries includes 355,000 infant-and-childdeaths below age 5 (3.2 percent of the total), 275,000 of which occurredamong infants. Most of these infant deaths were due to various perinataland congenital conditions.X = not available.million people are infected; about 85-90 million peopleare at risk (25). Distribution of the drug ivermectin maybe a breakthrough in the fight against this disease (26).Key IssuesHUMAN DEVELOPMENT: A NEW MEASURE OFGROWTHThe United Nations Development Programmeembarked in 1990 on a new effort to measure humandevelopment that emphasizes progress in humanhealth and literacy. The centerpiece of the Human DevelopmentReport 1990 and Human Development Report1991 is the human development index, which rankscountries using a combination of three indicators—lifeexpectancy, literacy, and living standards as measuredby gross domestic product per capita. The report assertsthat while economic growth is a critical componentof human development, it does not capture thebroader picture of human welfare. Programs that translateeconomic growth into education and health careare essential to produce a better life for a nation's people(27).The 1991 report adjusted the index slightly by broadeningthe literacy factor to include mean years ofschooling (28). In addition, separate indexes were preparedfor:• Women and men for 30 countries, indicating that, inareas such as life expectancy, adult literacy, wagerates, and mean years of schooling, there are wide genderdisparities in many developing countries.• Income distribution in 53 countries, indicating that inseveral countries—Nepal, Brazil, and Cote D'lvoire,for example—uneven income distribution has adverselyaffected overall human welfare.World Resources 1992-9379

6 Population and Human DevelopmentRecent DevelopmentsNEW LONG-RANGE POPULATIONPROJECTIONSIn late 1991, the United Nations was expectedto release new long-range populationprojections with a 10 percent highermid-range scenario for global population.The new estimates vividly demonstrate thecrucial role of fertility rates in estimatingthe ultimate size of the world's population.Revised for the first time since 1982, thenew long-range projections make a numberof changes in assumptions. For example,the upper limit for life expectancy atbirth was raised to 82.5 years for men (upfrom 73.5 years) and 87.5 years for women(up from 80 years). The forecast also madesome changes in assumptions about populationsize in 2025, the "take-off" point forthe projections, and about the pace of fertilitychange after 2025.Under the medium fertility projection,which assumes fertility ultimately will stabilizeat a replacement level of about 2.06,global population will reach 10 billion in2050,11.2 billion in 2100,11.5 billion in2150 and ultimately stabilize at 11.6 billionshortly after 2200. There would be an 89percent increase between the years 1990and 2050, with an additional 12 percent between2050 and 2100 and 3 percent between2100 and 2150.However, global population could varygreatly depending on fertility rates. Undera medium-high rate, with fertility stabilizingat 2.17 children (5 percent higher thanreplacement level), world populationwould be nearly 21 billion by 2150. At ahigher fertility stabilization rate (2.5 children),world population would reach 28billion in 2150. If fertility stabilized at 5 percentbelow the replacement level, populationwould peak at 7.8 billion in 2050 andthen fall to 5.6 billion by the middle of thefollowing century. Under an even lowerfertility assumption (1.7 children), worldpopulation would peak at 7.8 billion in2050 but then fall to 4.3 billion 100 yearslater. (See Figure 1.)The U.N. medium-fertility projected populationof 11.2 billion is 1 billion (10 percent)higher than that calculated by theU.N. in 1982. The new projections alsohave a much wider range than the 1982 figuresfor the highest and lowest projectedoutcomes. In 1982, the outcomes ranged between7 billion and 15 billion in the year2100; the new projections range from 6 billionto 19 billion for the same year.The age structure of the population isprojected to change dramatically. Theshare of the population aged 65 and over,which now stands at 6 percent, would riseto about 24 percent in 2150. The share ofthose aged 15 or under, now 32 percent,would drop to 18 percent by 2150. (See Figure2.) The percentage of those aged 80 orover, now 1 percent of the total, would increaseto 9 percent (l).References and NotesUnited Nations Population Division, Long-Range World Population Projections: Two Centuriesof Population Growth, 1950-2150(United Nations, New York, forthcoming),executive summary.Figure 1 Projected Population of the World,1990-2150Figure 2 Changing Age Structure of WorldPopulation, 1990-2150(billions)30-(percent)35-High-Medium-highMediumMedium-lowUnder age 15Aged 65 or older1990 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150Source: United Nations Population Division, Long-Range World PopulationProjections: Two Centuries of Population Growth, 1950-2150 (UnitedNations, New York, forthcoming), executive summary.1990 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150Source: United Nations Population Division, Long-Range World PopulationProjections: Two Centuries of Population Growth, 1950-2150 (UnitedNations, New York, forthcoming), executive summary.Note: Based on medium fertility projection in Figure 1.• Human freedom in 88 countries, showing that highlevels of human development tend to be achievedwithin the framework of high levels of human freedom(29).The index reveals that some countries—Sri Lanka,Chile, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Tanzania, and Thailand,among others—seem to have been far more successfulthan others in translating economic progress intobroad welfare gains for their people.In assessing the various country cases, the 1990 reportcame to several conclusions:• The most effective means of sustained human developmentis growth accompanied by an equitable distributionof income (as occurred in the Republic of Korea).• Even in the absence of rapid growth or equitable incomedistribution, countries can make significant improvementsin human development through wellstructuredsocial spending (Botswana, Malaysia, andSri Lanka).• Well-structured government social spending can generatedramatic improvements in a relatively short period,not only for countries starting from a low level ofWorld Resources 1992-9380

Population and Human Development 6human development but also for those starting at amoderate level (Chile and Costa Rica).• Setbacks in economic growth can seriously disrupthuman development (Chile, Colombia, Jamaica,Kenya, and Zimbabwe).• Targeted government interventions can help maintainhuman development during recessions and natural disasters(Chile, Zimbabwe, and Botswana).• In countries experiencing economic growth, human developmentmay not improve if income distribution isuneven and social expenditures are low (Nigeria andPakistan) or most of the wealth is appropriated bythose who are better off (Brazil) (30).The 1991 report suggests ways to improve humandevelopment efficiently. In health care, for example,governments could make large savings by using theleast expensive treatments rather than high-tech alternatives,buying generic rather than brand-name drugsand purchasing them through competitive bidding, improvingthe storage and distribution of drugs, and employinghealth-care personnel with fewer formalqualifications (31).CHOLERA EPIDEMICS IN LATIN AMERICA ANDAFRICAThe threat to human health posed by environmentaldeterioration was dramatically evident in early 1991,when, for the first time in this century, a cholera epidemicstruck six countries in Latin America. SeveralAfrican countries were also plagued with this disease.As of late September 1991, the World Health Organizationhad received reports of 300,000 cases of choleraand 3,200 deaths, primarily in Peru and to a lesser extentin Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico, Guatemala, andBrazil (32). Worldwide, the number of new cases ofcholera (177,000) in the first four months of 1991nearly equaled the total for all of 1971, when a cholerapandemic was at its peak in Africa and Asia (33). Bylate 1991, the epidemic in Latin America appeared tobe stabilizing. However, the arrival of warmer weathercould cause a resurgence in affected countries as wellas the spread to countries previously unaffected (34). InAfrica, the disease continued to sweep through TheGambia, Nigeria, Ghana, and other West African countries,with more than 45,000 cases and nearly 3,500deaths reported (35).Cholera is an acute intestinal infection caused by Vibriocholeme bacterium. The first cases in Latin Americawere reported in Peru in January 1991, appearing almostsimultaneously in communities along a 1,200 kilometerlength of coastline (36). The bacterium responsiblefor the world's outbreak was of the same biotype(El Tor) that started the seventh pandemic in1961, spreading through Asia and the Middle East inthe 1960s and invading West Africa in 1970 (37).Cholera is transmitted primarily through contaminatedwater and food, especially raw vegetables andseafood. It can spread rapidly, especially in overpopulatedcommunities with poor sanitation and unsafedrinking water. Children are particularly susceptibleto the disease (38).The outbreak in Peru is a side effect of the rapid urbanizationof the country together with a proliferationof crowded urban slums that lack adequate safe waterand sanitation facilities. People living in these slumstypically are poorly educated and poorly nourished,with little access to medical and health services. Cholerais treatable with oral rehydration salts, but the ultimatesolution in countries such as Peru requires improvementsin water and sanitation, health and education,and food safety (39).FOCUS ON CHILDREN'S HEALTHThe 1.7 billion children under age 15 who inhabit theearth today represent one third (32 percent) of theplanet's population; 82 percent of these children (1.4billion) live in the developing world. Moreover, duringthe 1990s, the largest generation ever will be born,with nearly 90 percent of the expected 1.5 billion birthsto occur in developing countries (40). These are thesame countries in which large numbers of children stilldie needlessly from malnutrition and disease causedby inadequate drinking water, poor sanitation, andother environmental ills. Nearly all deaths of childrenunder age 5 (97 percent) and maternal deaths (99 percent)are in developing countries (41) (42) (43).The environmental conditions in which these childrenlive pose a serious threat to their current healthand future prospects (44) (45). As the most fragile membersof society, they are most vulnerable to disease andenvironmental stress; their long-term well-being dependson the sustained ability of the Earth's resourcesto support this still expanding population.At a rhetorical level, recognition is growing that societieshave responsibilities not only to their current citizens,but to future ones as well. At the World Summitfor Children, held at the United Nations in September1990, leaders from 71 countries committed themselvesto "promoting the survival, protection, and developmentof the present generation of children and all generationsto come" (46). For those concerned aboutsustainable development, the concept of "intergenerationalequity" suggests that the welfare of futuregenerations—including the children alreadyborn—should be an implicit consideration in today'sdecisionmaking (47). Despite the rhetoric, however, theeconomic, social, and environmental conditions inwhich many children live put them at serious risk forill health, malnutrition, life-long disability (both physicaland mental), and early death.Progress has been made. Worldwide, the annualnumber of deaths of children under 5 declined by 4.7million between 1965-70 and 1985-90. Developingcountries have improved their children's health considerably.Between 1965-70 and 1985-90, the infant mortalityrate declined by 33 percent in developingcountries, from 116 per 1,000 live births to 78. (SeeTable 6.3.) The mortality rate of children under 5 yearsof age shows a similar trend: a 35 percent reduction,from 184 to 119 deaths per 1,000. Under-five mortalityin industrialized countries during this time periodWorld Resources 1992-9381

6 Population and Human DevelopmentFigure 6.5 Estimated Causes of DeathAmong Children Under Age 5 in DevelopingCountries, 1985 and 1990(millions)Respiratory Neonatal andinfections perinatalDiarrhea1985 1990Source: Division of Epidemiological Surveillance and Health Situation andTrend Assessment, World Health Organization (WHO), Global Estimates forHealth Situation Assessment and Projections 1992 (WHO, Geneva, forthcoming).Notes:a. WHO attributes 400 million deaths in 1985 and 180 million deaths in 1990 toa combination of diarrhea and measles. Totals for diarrhea and measlesboth include deaths from combined diarrhea/measles.b. Perinatal deaths refer to deaths from four weeks before delivery up to onemonth after birth; neonatal deaths refer to deaths after birth up to one monthof age.dropped 47 percent, but the number of deaths per1,000 was already far lower, dropping from 32 to 17.(See Table 6.2.) In the developing world, 37 percent oftotal deaths are children under 7; in the developed, 3percent (48) (49). A baby born in a developing countrytoday is seven times more likely to die before its firstbirthday than one born in the industrialized countries.Among developing countries, disparities in child mortalityhave widened; in the early 1960s, the differencesbetween the best and worst rates were 7 to 1; by theearly 1980s, they had increased to 15 to 1 (50). Unfortunately,recent reports show that progress in children'shealth has slipped in the United States. (See Box 6.1.)MAJOR CAUSES OF DEATH IN CHILDRENIn the developing world, 12.9 million children underage 5—more than 35,000 a day—died in 1990 of diseases,most of which were once as common in developedcountries (51). In other words, these children aredying of diseases for which effective means of prevention,as well as effective treatments, are available. (SeeFigure 6.5.)Acute Respiratory InfectionRespiratory infections are responsible for some 4.3 millionchildhood deaths annually. About 17 percent ofthese deaths are a consequence of pertussis (whoopingcough) and measles and are thus preventable throughimmunization; the vast majority—roughly 75 percent—arecaused by pneumonia (52).In the developed world, most children recover frompneumonia; in developing countries, they often donot. In Guatemala, the mortality rate among infantsdue to influenza and pneumonia is estimated to be1,000 per 100,000 live births; this is 8 times higher thanArgentina (120 per 100,000), 10 times higher than Cuba(97 per 100,000), and 125 times higher than Canada (8per 100,000) (53).One important contributing cause to acute respiratoryinfections (as well as to other diseases) in childrenare the particulates released when wood and animaldung are used to fuel traditional stoves. (See Chapter13, "Atmosphere and Climate.") WHO estimates that400-500 million people (including many women andyoung children) are affected worldwide, with ruralhomes having levels of particulate pollution rangingfrom 300 to 14,000 micrograms per cubic meter. TheWHO maximum recommended level is 100-150 micrograms(54).Bacterial pneumonia occurs far more frequently indeveloping countries than viral pneumonia (representingtwo thirds to three quarters of pneumonia cases),making oral antibiotics the treatment of choice (55). Becausetheir administration has been considered the preserveof medical doctors, antibiotics have been difficultto dispense widely in developing countries. But asa result of a series of pilot studies, WHO estimates thatdeaths from acute respiratory infections can be reducedby at least 30 percent if community health workersare trained in a standard protocol that involvesdispensing antibiotics when certain clear indicators arepresent (56) (57) (58). There already is some evidence ofimprovement; WHO estimated that respiratory infectionsclaimed 4.3 million children in 1990, down about10 percent from the 1985 estimate of 4.8 million (59).DiarrheaIn almost every developing country, diarrhea and respiratoryinfection are the first and second most commoncauses of illness and death among children under5 years old (60). Diarrheal disease causes about 3.2 millionchild deaths annually (61). In some countries, childrensuffer an average of eight or nine diarrhealepisodes a year (compared with a global average ofthree per child per year) (62). As much as 13 percent ofa child's life may be spent ill with diarrhea. Repeatedand prolonged bouts contribute to undernourishment,which in turn increases the severity and duration of futurediarrheal episodes (63).The most serious aspect of diarrhea is the dehydrationthat usually accompanies it—a condition that canbe prevented if parents and health care workers haveaccess to, and know how to use, oral rehydration therapy(64). In this simple technique, vital fluids and ionslost during diarrheal episodes are restored through theadministration of either a prepared packet of oral rehydrationsalts (ORS) or a home-prepared solution. Oralrehydration has been called one of the most importantmedical breakthroughs of the century in terms of numbersof lives affected, providing a less expensive andmore accessible means of treatment than intravenousrehydration (65). Promoted by WHO since 1978, oral rehydrationis now theoretically accessible to about 6082World Resources 1992-93

Population and Human Development 6Box 6.1 The Troubled State of U.S. Children's HealthDespite its enormous wealth, the UnitedStates still contains a large and apparentlygrowing number of children living in povertyand poor health. While dramatic progresswas made in the 1960s in reducingchild poverty, progress halted in the 1970s,and child poverty rates increased in the1980s d). The U.S. Census Bureau announcedin late 1991 that 20.6 percent ofU.S. children were living in poverty in1990, up from 19.6 percent the previousyear. The high percentage of impoverishedchildren is driven mainly by the increasingnumbers of female-headed households (2).Poverty and illness are particularly severeproblems for black children in theUnited States. The U.S. infant mortalityrate is higher than those of 21 other industrializedcountries; black babies in the U.S.are twice as likely to die as white babies.Since 1980, no progress has been made inreducing the incidence of low birthweightbabies; for blacks, the rate has actually increased(3).While developing countries have madespectacular progress in immunizing childrenagainst six major childhood diseases,with average immunization levels improvingfrom 15 percent to about 80 percent,this has not happened in the United States.In 1990, only about 70 percent of U.S. childrenwere immunized against measles,mumps, and rubella; in many inner citiesonly about one half of young childrenwere protected. In 1990, more than 26,000cases of measles were reported, sharplyhigher than the 3,000-case average in1981—88; most cases were among childrenin poor, inner-city families. Cases of rubellaand whooping cough also have increased.Immunization rates for diseasessuch as whooping cough are unknown becausethe federal government suspendeddata collection in 1985 (4).At least 10 to 15 percent of children inthe United States suffer from chronic ordisabling conditions such as genetic or metabolicdisorders, birth defects, trauma, prematurebirth, or infection. Increasinglycommon conditions include respiratorydiseases, mental and nervous disorders (atleast 10 percent of children suffer from seriousmental health disorders, including autismand depression), and orthopedic andsensory impairments. An estimated 12 millionAmerican children, mostly poor children,are at risk of lead poisoning (5).References and Notes1. Clifford M. Johnson, Leticia Miranda, ArlocSherman, et al.. Child Poverty in America(Children's Defense Fund, Washington,D.C., 1991), pp. 1, 4.2. Jason DeParle, "Poverty Rate Rose SharplyLast Year as Incomes Slipped," New YorkTimes (September 27,1991), p. Al.3. National Comm ission on Child ren, BeyondRhetoric: A New American Agenda for Childrenand Families (Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C., 1991), p. 119.4. Ibid., pp. 119-121.5. Ibid., p. 121.percent of the children in developing countries, but isactually used to treat about 30 percent of the childrenwho contract diarrhea. According to UNICEF, thistreatment saves an estimated 1 million young lives ayear (66) (67).Because it is important for children to continue to receivenutrients during diarrheal episodes, oral rehydrationtherapy is increasingly considered to involve boththe administration of fluids and continued feeding. Ongoingresearch suggests that cereal-based oral rehydrationtherapy, although still somewhat controversial,may have the potential to be more effective than thestandard ORS solution, which prevents dehydration,but does not actually prevent diarrhea nor reduce itsduration or amount. Cereal-based therapy can reducefluid losses by 30-50 percent as well as shorten the durationof diarrheal episodes (68).Even more important than treatment of diarrhea,however, is its prevention. Most diarrhea is caused bybacterial, viral, and parasitic infestations transmittedthrough water, food, and contact with fecal matter.Preventing diarrhea requires better sanitation andmore abundant, cleaner water supplies, as well ashealth education aimed at promoting breastfeeding,immunization, improved personal hygiene and foodhandling practices, and the penning of farm animalssuch as chickens and cattle (69) (70). Exclusive breastfeedingin the first six months of a child's life, for example,can dramatically reduce the incidence ofdiarrhea; the addition of even water or tea to the infant'sdiet has been found to double or sometimes triplethe likelihood of diarrhea (71).Vaccine-Preventable DiseasesAt the end of the 1970s, the international communitymade a major commitment to immunizing the world'schildren against six major childhood diseases—measles,diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, polio, and tuberculosis.This commitment has produced one of the mostspectacular public health successes of the past decade.Today, average immunization levels of children in developingcountries are at least 80 percent for all vaccine-preventablediseases except measles (78 percent)and neonatal tetanus (which requires the immunizationof women, only 38 percent of whom were immunizedby 1990) (72). The United Nations Children'sFund (UNICEF) estimates that these successes are preventingat least 2.5 million child deaths each year. Alltold, more than 12 million lives have been saved andmore than 1.5 million cases of polio prevented (73).Despite this progress, more than 2.1 million childrendied of vaccine-preventable diseases in 1990 (74). Expandingimmunization coverage further will be moredifficult, because those not yet reached tend to be fromthe poorest families, among whom disease and malnutritionare both more common and more likely to befatal. The international community has committed itselfto achieving 90 percent coverage by the year 2000,with a particular emphasis on reducing measles deathsby 95 percent and on eliminating tetanus and polio entirely(75).Measles and neonatal tetanus are the biggest killersamong vaccine-preventable diseases and also those forwhich immunization lags furthest behind. Measles accountsfor some 900,000 deaths a year (76); it alsocauses malnutrition, further illness, and loss of vitaminA. The incidence of illness and death in the periodafter a measles outbreak can be 10 times greateramong children who had the disease than amongthose who did not (77). Immunization against measlescan have a significant effect on child mortality, helpingto reduce deaths from all causes. In Bangladesh, for ex-World Resources 1992-9383

6 Population and Human Developmentample, children who were vaccinated against measlesexperienced at least 40 percent lower mortality thanthose who were not (78).Neonatal tetanus could be eliminated if all pregnantwomen were immunized and delivered their babiesunder hygienic conditions. Tetanus currently killssome 560,000 newborns each year and an estimated15,000-30,000 mothers; it is an excellent barometer ofthe health status and well-being of mothers and newborns(79) (80) (81).The eradication of smallpox through immunizationin the 1970s provides a telling example of both the possibilityand the cost-effectiveness of such efforts—approximately$1 billion a year is saved in vaccine andsurveillance costs (82). Another success story is thenear-total eradication of polio from the Americas. In1985, bilateral, multilateral, and private voluntaryagencies joined with the Pan American Health Organizationin an intensive campaign to rid the hemisphereof polio. The campaign involved high immunizationlevels, enhanced surveillance to document and investigateeach case, and measures to stop transmissionwhenever a new case occurred. In 1990, there were 18new cases, compared with 1,050 in 1986; as of July 1991,there were only 3 confirmed cases for the year. Completeeradication is anticipated in the near future (83).MalariaApproximately 40 percent of the world's population isat risk of malaria, which occurs in more than 100 countries(84). It is most endemic in sub-Saharan Africa,where often more than 50 percent of the population inrural areas is infected (85). Because of widespread underreporting,the exact number of deaths due to malariais unknown but is estimated to be about 1 millionannually (86), mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and mostlyin the younger age groups (an estimated 800,000children under 5 die from malaria each year) (87).Those children who survive may acquire immunityagainst the most severe manifestations of the infection,but often the remnants of the disease adversely affecttheir growth, physical fitness, and educational achievement(88).Environmental conditions contributing to the spreadof malaria include stagnant waters around homes andconstruction sites; irrigation projects; industrial, hydroelectricprojects requiring impoundment of water;changes in ecosystems caused by widespread deforestation,soil erosion, and flooding; overcrowding andunsanitary living conditions. Overuse of pesticides increasesthe mosquito's resistance and further aggravatesthe problem.Combatting the disease requires controlling the mosquitopopulation through appropriate use of chemicalor biological means, preventing mortality through casemanagement, and implementing a range of environmentalmanagement techniques depending on the predominantvector species. Malaria is transmittedthrough a complex of technical, political, social, cultural,environmental, and economic factors; to be successful,measures to reduce malaria mortality must belocally and regionally specific. Simple administrationof even a very effective drug such as chloroquinine isnot enough to combat the disease; when used in the absenceof an effective primary health care system,chloroquinine has in fact contributed to the resurgenceof malaria by increasing parasite resistance. (See WorldResources 1990-91, p. 58.) Nevertheless, when used incombination with strategies appropriate to local conditions,the drug can still provide a clinical cure in largeareas of the world (89).A ministerial level meeting to review the global malariasituation and develop new strategies is scheduledfor October 1992 in Amsterdam. Organized by theWorld Health Organization, the meeting is to be precededby a series of regional meetings in Africa, Asia,and Latin America.MalnutritionAlthough data are incomplete, a 1990 UNICEF surveysuggests that more than one third of the developingworld's children under 5 years of age (excludingChina) are malnourished (90). Of these 150 million children,at least one in six—25 million—is severely malnourished.Most of the world's malnourished childrenreside in Asia—60 percent (91) excluding China, 80 percentincluding China (92). In sub-Saharan Africa, the incidenceof malnutrition appears to be increasing (93).How frequently malnutrition is an immediate causeof death is unknown (94). UNICEF, however, estimatesthat it is a contributing cause in approximately onethird of child deaths (95). In Latin America, malnutritionwas found to be the underlying or related cause inmore than half of all childhood deaths (96).Malnutrition shows up quickly in young children,acting as an early warning sign of distress, ill health,and famine. The appearance of malnutrition in youngchildren is believed to reflect the health and nutritionalsituation of all members of the population (97).Malnutrition can lower a child's immunity, makingthe child more susceptible to diseases such as diarrhea,measles, and respiratory infections. These in turn reduceappetite, cause nutrient loss, inhibit absorption,and alter the body's metabolism, thereby resulting ininadequate dietary intake and further malnutrition.This vicious cycle of malnutrition and infection hasbeen termed the "most prevalent public health problemin the world today" (98).Often the cycle begins even earlier when malnourishedwomen give birth to babies with low birthweight (2,500 grams or less). Some 350 million womenare estimated to have nutritional anemia (99). Thesewomen are more likely to die in childbirth as well as tohave babies too small to thrive. Between 12 and 15 percentof all babies in developing countries are born withlow birth weight and these babies account for 30^10percent of all infant deaths (100). Low birth weight babiesare seven times more likely than other babies todie of respiratory infections and three times morelikely to die of diarrhea (101). In the 1980s, nearly 1 ofevery 10 babies in Latin America had low birth weightwhich was a factor in 78 percent of early neonatal84World Resources 1992-93

Population and Human Development 6deaths (i.e., those deaths that occur in the first week oflife) (102). Measures to reduce low birth weight—suchas improved nutritional health for women and girls,more food and rest during pregnancy, and increasedspacing between births—could significantly reduce infantdeaths.The international community has committed itself tohalving the incidence of severe and moderate malnutritionamong children by the year 2000. If that target isto be met, parents and community health workersmust be given basic nutrition information and trainedto monitor children's growth. For example, exclusivebreastfeeding for the first few months of life can improvechild health significantly. As noted above, it reducesdiarrheal morbidity and provides newbornswith the best possible nourishment as well as antibodiesagainst common infections. UNICEF estimatesbreastfeeding could save 1.5 million lives a year. Becausebreastfeeding acts as a natural contraceptive byinhibiting ovulation, it lowers fertility rates and helpslengthen birth spacing, thus improving the health ofboth mother and child (103).Two other widespread nutritional problems-vitaminA and iodine deficiency—require attention. Some40 million children under 5 suffer from vitamin A deficiency(104). Every year, 250,000 children are permanentlyblinded by the disease and another 250,000have their eyesight partially impaired. At least 100,000of these die within a few weeks of contracting the disease(105). In addition, lack of vitamin A has been associatedwith other diseases, including diarrhea andrespiratory infection (106) (107). Vitamin A supplementationhas been found to reduce measles-associated mortalityby up to 50 percent (108) (109).Improvements in vitamin A status, either throughsupplementation or dietary changes, are expected tosave the sight of 250,000-500,000 children in developingcountries each year, and the lives of 1 million childrenannually (110). In the longer term, adding foodsrich in vitamin A such as green leafy vegetables andyellow fruits to diets is the best means of overcomingvitamin A deficiency (ill). In fact, it has been arguedthat supplementation is a diversion of resources fromthe necessary task of improving diets (112). However,the mounting evidence on the benefits of adequate vitaminA consumption, combined with the difficultiesin bringing about dietary changes and the seasonal orgeneral lack of foods rich in vitamin A in many areas,is providing growing support for vitamin A supplementationfor children and mothers to alleviate shorttermor particularly severe deficiencies (113) (114) (115).As a result of iodine deficiency disorder (IDD), 200-300 million people are afflicted with goiter, 20 millionwith mental retardation, and at least 6 million with cretinism.IDD is most prevalent in mountainous regionsand flood-prone areas; when iodine is washed fromthe soil, whole communities may suffer, with childrenthe most affected. Without iodine, they grow up stunted,retarded, apathetic, and incapable of normal development,speech, or hearing. Ensuring that diets includeiodized salt or administering iodine in oil either orallyor through injection can remedy the deficiency (116).IMPROVING CHILDREN'S HEALTHThere is no direct measure of a population's generalhealth, well-being, and productive potential. Althoughmortality figures measure only the extreme outcomeof ill-health—death—they also indicate the extent ofhealth problems in a population. Obviously, widespreadhealth problems can affect a country's productivityand development potential.Both infant and under-five mortality rates are consideredto reflect levels of nutrition (especially amongpregnant women, infants, and children), education (especiallyfemale literacy) (117), general socioeconomicstatus, and access to health services (118). Of the twomeasures, the under-five mortality rate is considered abetter technical indicator, both because data collectionis better and because it is one of the few social indicatorsfor which long-run time series are available.Reducing child mortality is possible at various levelsof national income. It can be achieved through broadsocial and economic development or through directtargeted interventions—interventions that for a numberof reasons are also direct investments in sustainabledevelopment.First, as previously discussed, over the long run, reducingchild deaths slows down the rate of populationgrowth. In most countries, this change from high mortality-highfertility to low mortality-low fertility is notevident until under-five mortality rates fall to 150—oreven 100—deaths per 1,000 live births. From initialchild mortality rates of 300 or more, many countriesnow have reached this critical point where further declinesin child mortality can be expected to be accompaniedby steep declines in fertility. Where strongfamily planning programs exist, the decline in births islikely to take place even more quickly (119). Figure 6.6shows a strong association between lower child deathrates and the use of contraceptive measures in 67 countriesfor which data on both indicators are available.Second, the environmental conditions that are both asymptom and a result of underdevelopment causemuch of the ill health and disease affecting today'schildren. Measures that simultaneously address the relatedissues of poverty, ill health, and environmentaldegradation include providing adequate water supplies,safe sanitation facilities, and small-scale irrigation(which can increase household food supply andincome as well as avoid the negative environmentaland health effects of large-scale irrigation).Third, healthy children who grow into healthyadults are more likely to make productive contributionsto their communities and their countries, as wellas to pass on positive health practices to the next generation.Sustainable development depends on a productive,healthy, educated population. (See Chapter 1,"Dimensions of Sustainable Development.")World Resources 1992-9385

6 Population and Human DevelopmentHealth and PovertyA society's overall level of income is not necessarily agood indicator of its children's life chances as measuredby infant and child mortality rates. Compare, forexample, Sri Lanka and Brazil. At an average annualper capita income of only $430, Sri Lanka has one ofthe lowest child mortality rates of all developing countries(36 per 1,000). Brazil, with an average annual percapita income five times higher than Sri Lanka's($2,550), has a child mortality rate twice as large (77per 1,000). (See Chapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators,"Table 15.1, and Chapter 16, "Population andHuman Development," Table 16.3.) With an averageannual per capita income of $182, the state of Kerala inIndia is poorer than India as a whole; yet in 1986, thestate had an infant mortality rate of 27 per 1,000, whileIndia's was 86 per 1,000 (120).As the Human Development Report points out, socialprograms aimed at improving literacy and health carecan have a bigger effect on child mortality than simplyincreasing GNP. Figures 6.6 and 6.7 show that childmortality is inversely correlated with the use of contraceptionand with female literacy. There is only a smallcorrelation between GNP and child mortality withindeveloping countries (121). However, in the absence ofconcentrated health and education programs, poorerchildren do suffer more health problems than wealthierchildren. In the poorer Northeast of Brazil, for example,the 1986 infant mortality rate of 116 per 1,000live births is comparable to many African countriesand more than twice that in the rest of Brazil (52 per1,000) (122). After Sri Lanka changed its food subsidypolicies in the late 1970s, the infant mortality rate in1980 was twice as high among the poorest agriculturalworkers (100 per 1,000) as it was for the country as awhole (50 per 1,000) (123).In developed countries as well, it is the poorest segmentsof society whose children suffer most. In theUnited States, the Department of Health and HumanServices has found that poor children are more likelyboth to be ill and to have many more risk factors forpoor health than children in families with higher incomes.One quarter of all children under age 6 aremembers of families living below the governmentdefinedpoverty level. These children are more likelyto suffer from prematurity, low birth weight, birthdefects, and infant death. They are twice as likely,between the ages of 1 and 2, to have iron deficiencyanemia. They are also at greater risk of growth retardationand impaired mental and physical development,and they experience more sickness from infectious andother debilitating conditions. In 1980, U.S. childrenfrom families with incomes under $5,000 had slightlymore than nine disability days, compared with fourdisability days for children from families with incomesof $25,000 or more (124).In the United Kingdom, a child born to professionalparents can expect to live more than five years longerthan a child born to parents who perform unskilledmanual labor (125). In the Soviet Union, infant mortalityrates in 1987 were 19 per 1,000 live births in urbanareas and 27 per 1,000 live births in rural areas (126).Such large gaps can be found even within communities.In Guatemala City, 1976 data showed that themortality rate for children under age 2 was 113 per1,000 live births for poor illiterate women, comparedwith 33 per 1,000 live births for middle-class womenwith secondary education (127).Water and SanitationUniversal access to safe drinking water and to sanitarydisposal of excreta are two of the major internationaltargets for improving the health and well-being of children.These goals were set during the InternationalDrinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade of the1980s and endorsed again at the 1990 World Summitfor Children. As of 1990,81 percent of urban areas and58 percent of rural areas had access to safe water supplies;71 percent of urban areas and 48 percent of ruralareas had access to sanitation (128).A 1990 review of 144 community-level studies concludedthat when water and sanitation are made availableto people, substantial health impacts can beachieved. In particular, the review found that waterand sanitation was associated with a median reductionin child mortality of 55 percent. These communitystudies also suggest that, particularly for diarrheal disease,improvements in excreta disposal and waterquantity have even greater health impacts than improvementsin water quality (129).The gains to be made from improving water supplies(both quantity and quality) and sanitation are notautomatic, however. Simply installing water taps, pitlatrines, hand pumps, and other hardware is notenough; their success depends as well on communityparticipation and changes in behavior (130). Studieshave found, for example, that handwashing can reducethe incidence of diarrheal disease by 14-48percent (131).The cumulative effect of reducing a number of waterandsanitation-related diseases may be significantlygreater than the measurement of any one diseasewould indicate; child mortality, for example, may bereduced more than the incidence of diarrhea (132).Moreover, improvements in water and sanitation mayreduce the severity of disease even more than the incidence.There are also indirect benefits that follow initial improvements.Difficult to quantify, these benefits arenonetheless significant. Well-designed investments inwater and sanitation bring socioeconomic, educational,and nutritional benefits. Additionally, by reducingillness they improve productivity and the ability tolearn, which in turn increase general well-being, makingwater and sanitation measures even more costeffective(133).The Role of WomenAn estimated three quarters of all health care takesplace at home, where women—particularly in theirrole as mothers—generally have responsibility for promotingtheir families' health and nutrition (134). MuchWorld Resources 1992-9386

Population and Human Development 6Figure 6.6 Under-Five Mortality by Percent ofParents Using ContraceptionUnder-five Mortality(per thousand)Figure 6.7 Under-Five Mortality by Degree ofAdult Female LiteracyUnder-five Mortality(per thousand)•r' • • " ' . ' " •" •*•"300-250-200-150-100-50-". • . • .'•300-250-200-150-100-50-•• • •*•1 -(10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1t 0Percent of Parents Using ContraceptionSource: Chapter 16, "Population and Human Development," Tables 16.3 and16.6.Note: Based on data reported by 67 developing countries. Each dot representsdata from one country.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Percent of Adult Females Who are LiterateSource: Chapter 16, "Population and Human Development," Tables 16.3 and16.6.Note: Based on data reported by 89 developing countries. Each dot representsdata from one country.has been learned recently about which factors help orhinder women in improving their children's health.Women's education is closely related to child health,whether health is measured in terms of infant andchild mortality or children's nutritional status (135)(136). Figure 6.7 shows a high correlation between femaleliteracy and child mortality rates. Detailed studiesof 28 countries show a nearly consistent inverserelationship between child mortality and mothers' education(137).Women's education can improve children's healththrough a variety of mechanisms: increased use ofhealth services and better knowledge of nutrition;more decisionmaking power within the family and thecommunity; and greater earning power. Women withhigher levels of education are more likely to plan theirfamilies and thus to increase birth spacing, reducing amajor mortality risk factor (138).Increased education of mothers often is associatedwith higher education levels of fathers, higher levels ofhousehold income, the availability of water and sanitation,and the availability of other health inputs—all factorsthat also tend to be associated with improvedchild health. The net effect of either mother's orfather's education on health is difficult to determineprecisely (139) (140). Education of a mother is estimatedto be twice as effective as education of a father in loweringinfant and child mortality (141). It is not necessarilythe content of the education that makes a differencein children's health but the mother's increased accessto information, including health information (142).Lack of education is not the only problem constrainingmothers from protecting their children's health.Poor rural women in developing countries often work60 to 90 hours per week gathering wood, collectingwater, growing and cooking food, contributing to thefamily income, and caring for their children (143). Forthese women, steps to make immunization more accessibleand the administration of oral rehydration therapyeasier may be key to their ability to raise healthychildren (144).Health CareThe technologies—such as immunization and oral rehydrationtherapy—that have made a significant differencein child health depend on a well-informed parentsupported by an accessible health worker. The parent,usually the mother, must recognize the initial symptomsin time to provide home care or seek outside assistance.She must also be able to turn to someone whocan immunize children, take other steps to prevent illness,and treat children who do fall ill. This personneed not be an expensively educated physician; a welltrainedhealth worker, preferably one with roots in thecommunity and opportunities for both further educationand support, can handle most situations. Accessto such community health workers is essential if theopportunities for significantly reducing child deathsare to be realized.Almost three quarters of the health expenditures ofdeveloping countries are devoted to urban hospitalsthat provide expensive, Western-style curative care toa minority of the population. UNICEF estimates thatreducing this amount to 45 or 50 percent of total governmentexpenditures on health would release enoughfunds to train the 1 million health workers needed toprovide health services to the poorest 1 billion peoplein the developing world (145).INDUSTRIALIZATION AND URBANIZATIONAlthough most environmental causes of poor health indeveloping-country children are related to povertyand a lack of modern development—lack of water andsanitation, poor housing, indoor air pollution resultingfrom the burning of wood and dung—some parts ofWorld Resources 1992-9387

6 Population and Human Developmentthe developing world face health hazards from industrialpollutants and urban development. Aggregatedata are scarce, but evidence is mounting that industrializationand urbanization are combining to exposesome populations to a variety of toxic chemicals contaminatingthe air, water, soil, and food. It is an area inwhich the need for more research and better data gatheringis urgent.Industrial PollutantsPollution in whatever form affects children more thanadults, and poor children—who are exposed to morekinds and higher levels of pollution—are affectedmost of all. Children's smaller body weights and developingorgans put them at greater risk. So do their habits:infants suck indiscriminately on contaminatedobjects; older children play on streets filled with carfumes and lead exhaust, on sewage-polluted beaches,or on open spaces that collect hazardous wastes. Malnourishedand disease-prone children are even morevulnerable (146).The fetus is perhaps most vulnerable. Methyl mercury,pesticides, polychlorinated byphenyls (PCBs),carbon monoxide, and such self-administered contaminantsas alcohol and tobacco have been shown to haveadverse health consequences for exposed fetuses (147).Although no aggregate data exist on the extent of theproblem, selected data provide a good indication.Mercury in seafood ingested by pregnant womenhas been linked to cerebral palsy in infants. On average,mercury levels in these babies' blood is 47 percenthigher than those of their mothers (148). Childrenwhose mothers ate foods contaminated with PCBshave suffered various forms of retarded growth (149).Carbon monoxide, which WHO has found regularlyreaches unhealthy levels in many cities, can result indecreases in fetal weight, increases in perinatal mortality,and brain damage, depending on the length oftime a pregnant woman was exposed and the concentrationin the air. Here, too, the concentration in thefetus generally exceeds that in the mother (150).Air PollutionAir pollution—once a problem only in the industrializedworld—now affects most large urban centers indeveloping countries; the number of vehicles, poor vehiclemaintenance, industrial growth, the absence of effectiveair-quality regulations, and the burning ofcharcoal, wood, and paraffin by growing slum populationsfor fuel and cooking combine to create some ofthe dirtiest cities in the world (151) (152). Although environmentalimprovements there have been remarkablein recent years, the city of Cubatao, Brazil in 1980 reportedgrim statistics regarding health effects of airpollution. In the industrial city, 40 out of every 1,000babies were stillborn; another 40, mostly deformed,died in the first week of life. In the same year, with apopulation of 80,000, Cubatao had some 10,000 medicalemergencies involving tuberculosis, pneumonia,bronchitis, emphysema, asthma, and other nose andthroat ailments (153). The link between air pollutionand the incidence of respiratory and pulmonary diseasesin children, who inhale about twice as many pollutantsper unit of body weight as do adults, is welldemonstrated(154) (155).Lead PoisoningLead is a particular problem for children under 6. Excessiveexposure impairs intelligence, growth, abilityto hear and perceive language, and concentration (156).Even exposure to low levels seems to be associatedwith subsequent intellectual deficiencies (157) (158). Thelevel of what is considered toxic has been continuallyreduced in the last 10 to 15 years as a result of new researchshowing how severe the consequences of leadexposure can be (159) (160).Lead-based paint and exhaust fumes from leadedgasoline are two major sources of lead exposure; however,some children may be dangerously exposed fromother sources as well. Lead workers bring home leaddust on their clothes, shoes, and hair (161). Painting,pottery glazing, jewelry making, stained glass work,metal sculpting, and other cottage craft industries thatuse lead or products that contain lead may involve thewhole family; in Mexico, children whose families manufacturedpottery were found to have higher bloodlevelconcentrations and lower mental performancethan children from families of similar socioeconomicbackground but who were employed in other occupations(162).While airborne lead concentrations from industrialemissions and automobile exhaust are declining inmost industrialized countries, they are increasing indeveloping-country urban areas (163). High levels ofairborne lead have been found along busy roads inDelhi, Kuala Lumpur, and Zimbabwe (164) (165) (166). Asurvey of children living near a lead-smelting plant inBrazil found high levels of both zinc protoporphyrinand lead in their blood; the levels correlated to thechildren's age, their proximity to the plant, and lengthof residence (167). In Mexico City, 7 out of 10 newbornswere found to have lead blood levels higher than theWHO norm (168).Even in the United States, where the lead content ofpaint used for residential structures, toys, furniture,and eating utensils has been limited since 1971 (169)and unleaded gasoline has been required for new automobilessince 1975,3-4 million children are estimatedto have lead blood levels above the maximum thresholddefined by the Environmental Protection Agencyfor neuropsychological impairment. Approximately 17percent of all children living in metropolitan areashave blood levels in this range; among poor black children,the rate is 62 percent (170).Water PollutionIn many developing countries, urban water sourcesused for drinking, washing, and cooking are threatenedby biological pollution from human waste andchemical pollution from industrial toxic wastes. SouthAmerica, for example, pollutes nearly 11 times more88World Resources 1992-93

Population and Human Development 6Box 6.2 World Summit for Children: Declaration and Plan of ActionAt the World Summit for Children, held inSeptember 1990, the leaders of 71 countriescommitted themselves to taking high-levelpolitical action to assure the well-being ofchildren 0). This commitment involves:• Ratifying and implementing the Conventionon the Rights of the Child.• Promoting prenatal care and reductions ininfant and child mortality.• Eradicating hunger, malnutrition, and famine.• Strengthening the role and status ofwomen.• Supporting the role of the family, as wellas support for children separated fromtheir families.• Providing educational and training opportunitiesfor children.• Addressing the plight of children in especiallydifficult circumstances— includingvictims of apartheid and foreign occupation;orphans; street children; migrant andrefugee children; displaced children andvictims of natural and man-made disasters;and disabled, abused, socially disadvantaged,and exploited children.• Protecting children from conflict.• Protecting the environment.I Alleviating poverty and revitalizing economicgrowth.To achieve these broad goals, the Summitadopted a Plan of Action with a numberof specific goals, many of which hadpreviously been endorsed in a variety of internationalsettings:• Reduction of the 1990 under-five mortalityrates by one third or to a level of 70 per1,000 live births, whichever is the greaterreduction.• Reduction of maternal mortality rates tohalf the 1990 levels.• Reduction of severe and moderate malnutritionamong children under 5 to half the1990 levels.• Universal access to safe drinking waterand to sanitary means of excreta disposal.B Universal access to basic education, with atleas) 80 percent of primary-school-age childrencompleting primary education.• Reduction of the adult illiteracy rate to atleast half its 1990 level, with emphasis onimproving female literacy.• Protection of children in especially difficultcircumstances.Toward these ends, some 25 specificgoals were adopted that included increasinglevels of child immunization to at least90 percent, eradicating polio by 2000, eliminatingneonatal tetanus by 1995, reducingmeasles deaths by 95 percent by 1995, reducingby one third the deaths due toacute respiratory infection, elimination ofiodine deficiency disorder and vitamin Adeficiency, and access by all couples to informationand services to prevent pregnanciesoccurring too early, too late, too close,or too often.References and NotesThe "World Declaration on the Survival,Protection and Development of Children,"and "Plan of Action for Implementing theWorld Declaration on the Survival, Protectionand Development of Children," bothadopted at the World Summit for Children,September 30,1990, are reprinted in UnitedNations Children's Fund, The State of theWorld's Children 1991 (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1991), pp. 51-74.freshwater per capita than Europe, largely because lessthan 10 percent of its sewage is treated (171).Infants, who need more fluids in relation to bodyweight than older children and adults, are particularlyvulnerable to health hazards caused by water pollution.Nitrate in ground water is a growing cause of concernin several countries, as the use of nitrate fertilizerand manure increases. Not in itself dangerous, nitratecombines with bacteria in the mouth to become nitrite,which can induce methemoglobinemia (a reduction inthe oxygen-carrying capacity of the blood), especiallyin infants who drink baby formula mixed with watercontaining nitrates (172).Hazards of UrbanizationAlthough urban areas have lower infant and childmortality rates in the aggregate than rural areas, thehealth status of urban subpopulations varies widely.The poorest urban populations—often living in illegalsquatter settlements—suffer from overcrowding, inadequatehousing, contaminated water supplies, poor ornonexistent waste disposal and sanitation, and exposureto industrial pollutants. Large cities tend to havethe highest concentrations of water, sanitation, andhealth care facilities, but as many as 30-60 percent ofthe poorest people do not have access to them (173).Numerous studies show that children living in theseconditions have higher rates of diarrhea, respiratory infection,tuberculosis, malnutrition, and death than childrenin other urban communities or even in surroundingrural areas (174). Children in squatter settlementsmay be 50 times as likely to die before age 5 than thoseborn in developed countries (175).In addition, the conditions of their poverty put theseurban children at increased risk of accidents, crimes,violence, and psychological harm. A growing numberof children live in the streets—without shelter, adultsupervision, or income.BUILDING A GLOBAL CONSENSUSDramatic declines in infant mortality took place in theindustrialized countries in the early 20th Century, notprimarily as a result of advances in medicine, but as adirect result of advances in overall living conditions,including better nutrition, improved hygiene and sanitation,and voluntary birth limitation (176). The questiontoday is whether further mortality decreases mustwait for overall economic development or whetherthey can be achieved—even in advance of overall improvementsin the economy—by pursuing concertedstrategies to improve food supply, water and sanitation,education, and health care.For the last 10 years, WHO, UNICEF, and other multilateralagencies have urged the international communityto pursue an aggressive "child survival" strategy.The program has focused on promoting wide-spreadacceptance of several "technologies"—including oralrehydration therapy, breastfeeding, improved weaningpractices, and immunization—and on providing increasedaccess to food, family planning, and femaleliteracy.The strategy has had some outstanding successes.UNICEF in 1991 calculated that child survival interventionswere saving 3.2 million young lives each year (177).But high mortality rates still prevail in many countries,World Resources 1992-9389

6 Population and Human Developmentand growing problems such as pediatric HIV andAIDS threaten the gains that have been made.In the 10 countries of Central and East Africa, for example,HIV/AIDS could cause 250,000 to 500,000 additionaldeaths a year among children under age 5 bythe year 2000. These children will be extremely sick beforethey die, putting severe strains on health care resources.Additionally, by the year 2000, HIV/AIDS isexpected to orphan as many as 5.5 million children—11 percent of all the region's children under age 15 (178).The World Summit for Children brought togetherrepresentatives from 159 countries, including 71 headsof state or government. In a Declaration on the Survival,Protection and Development of Children, theserepresentatives made a commitment to reduce childdeath rates by one third and malnutrition rates by onehalf by the end of the decade. The accompanying Planof Action for meeting those goals contains detailed targetsfor specific diseases, nutrition, immunization, familyplanning, breastfeeding, water and sanitation, andeducation. (See Box 6.2.)The world summit epitomized the growing globalconsensus that a commitment to children is importantboth in itself and as an investment in the sustainabilityof the planet. In November 1989, the United Nationsadopted the Convention on the Rights of the Child,which sets standards for children's survival, health,and education and seeks to protect children who areexploited, abandoned, or abused. As of August 1991,95 countries had ratified the Convention; another 45had signed (but not yet ratified) it (179).Meeting the goals set at the world summit will costapproximately $20 billion a year, according toUNICEF estimates, and will require commitmentsfrom both developing and developed countries (180).Developing countries will have to reallocate some militaryspending to social spending and divert some fundingfrom hospitals and secondary education to primaryhealth care and primary education. Additionalsupport from industrialized countries will also be necessaryto achieve these goals.The status and progress of children's health and nutritionis a telling measure of society's overall development.Children must not only survive but be given theopportunity to thrive.Conditions and Trends was written by World Resources SeniorEditor Robert Livernash. Focus On Children's Health was written byRosemarie Philips, a writer and editor on environment and developmentissues in Alexandria, Virginia. Dirk Bryant, World Resourcesresearch assistant, contributed to this chapter.References and Notes1. Thomas W. Merrick, U.S. Population Assistance:A Continued Priority for the 1990s?(Population Reference Bureau, Washington,D.C., April 1990), p. 16.2. United Nations Population Division, Long-Range World Population Projections: Two Centuriesof Population Growth, 1950-2150(United Nations, New York, 1991), p. vi.3. Population Reference Bureau, 1991 WorldPopulation Data Sheet (Population ReferenceBureau, Washington, D.C., 1991).4. John Bongaarts, W. Parker Mauldin, andJames F. Phillips, "The Demographic Impactof Family Planning Programs," Studiesin Family Planning, Vol. 21, No. 6 (November/December1990), p. 305.5. Op. cit. 3. Note: These rates refer to the percentof currently married or "in union"women of reproductive age (15^19) whouse any form of contraception.6. United Nations Population Fund, formallythe United Nations Fund for Population Activities(UNFPA), The State of World Population1991 (UNFPA, New York, 1991), pp.11-14.7. Ibid., p. 23.8. World Resources Institute in collaborationwith the United Nations Environment Programmeand the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, World Resources 1992-93(Oxford University Press, New York, 1992),Table 16.3.9. United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), Environmental Data Report, preparedfor UNEP by the GEMS Monitoringand Assessment Research Centre in collaborationwith the World Resources Instituteand the United Kingdom Department of theEnvironment (Basil Blackwell, Oxford, U.K.,1991), p. 242.10. World Health Organization (WHO) PublicHealth Impact of Pesticides Used in Agriculture(WHO, Geneva, 1990), p. 86.11. Alan D. Lopez, "Causes of Death: An Assessmentof Global Patterns of MortalityAround 1985," World Health Statistics Quarterly,Vol. 43, No. 2 (1990), pp. 92-93.12. Division of Epidemiological Surveillanceand Health Situation and Trend Assessment,World Health Organization (WHO),Global Estimates for Health Situation Assessmentand Projections 1992 (WHO, Geneva,forthcoming).13. Ibid.14. Op. cit. 11.15. Op. cit. U.16. Op. cit. 12.17. Division of Epidemiological Surveillanceand Health Situation and Trend Assessment,Global Estimates for Health Situation Assessmentand Projections 1990 (World HealthOrganization, Geneva, 1990), pp. 14-29.18. Ibid.,p. 18.19. Ibid., p. 25.20. Op. cit. 12.21. United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), Environmental Data Report, preparedfor UNEP by the GEMS Monitoringand Assessment Research Centre in collaborationwith the World Resources Instituteand the United Kingdom Department of theEnvironment (Basil Blackwell, Oxford, U.K.,1989), p. 348.22. Op. dr. 17, p. 27.23. Op. cit. 17, p. 19.24. Op. cit. 21, p. 349.25. Op. cit. 17, p. 20.26. United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report 1990 (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1990), p. 40.27. Ibid., pp. 9-13.28. United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report 1991 (OxfordUniversity Press, Oxford, 1991), p. 2.29. Ibid.,p. 3.30. Op. cit. 26, p. 42.31. Op. cit. 28, p. 63.32. Pan American Health Organization(PAHO), "Update: The Cholera Situation inthe Americas," Epidemiological Bulletin, Vol.12, No. 3 (PAHO, Washington, D.C., 1991),Table 1, p. 11.33. World Health Organization (WHO), "Cholera:Ancient Scourge on the Rise," WHO Features,No. 154 (WHO, Geneva, April 1991),p.l.34. Renate Plaut, Epidemiologist, Health Situationand Trend Assessment Program, PanAmerican Health Organization, Washington,D.C., September 1991 (personal communication).35. Lawrence K. Altman, "'Catastrophic' CholeraIs Sweeping Africa," New York Times,July 23,1991, p. C 2.36. Pan American Health Organization(PAHO), "Cholera Situation in the Americas,"Epidemiological Bulletin, Vol. 12, No. 1(PAHO, Washington, D.C., 1991), p. 2.37. Op. cit. 33, p. 3.38. Op. cit. 33, pp. 2-3.39. Op. cit. 36, pp. 18-24.40. United Nations Department of Economicand Social Affairs, World Population Prospects1990 (United Nations, New York,1991), pp. 227-231.41. United Nations (U.N.), Mortality of ChildrenUnder Age 5: World Estimates and Projections,1950-2025 (U.N., New York, 1988), p. 22.42. Op. dr. 17, p. 17.43. Op. cit. 12.44. United Nations Environment Program(UNEP) and United Nations Children'sFund (UNICEF), Children and the Environment:The State of the Environment, 1990 (UNI-CEF and UNEP, New York and Nairobi,1990), pp. 8-10.90World Resources 1992-93

Population and Human Development 645. Lloyd Timberlake and Laura Thomas, Whenthe Bough Breaks...Our Children, Our Environment(Earthscan Publications, London,1990), pp. 1-11.46. "World Declaration on the Survival, Protectionand Development of Children," inUnited Nations Children's Fund, The State ofthe World's Children, 1991 (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1991), pp. 1 and 57.47. Op. at. 44, pp. 3-4.48. Op. cit. 41, p. 30.49. United Nations Population Division, WorldPopulation Prospects 1990 (United Nations,New York, 1991), pp. 228-230.50. Kenneth Hill and Anne R. Pebley, "ChildMortality in the Developing World," Populationand Development Review, Vol. IS, No. 4(December 1989), p. 680.51. Op. cit. 12.52. Op. cit. 12.53. Pan American Health Organization(PAHO), Health Conditions in the Americas,Vol. I, Scientific Publication No. 524 (PAHO,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 404.54. Global Environment Monitoring Service, Assessmentof Urban Air Quality (United NationsEnvironment Programme and WorldHealth Organization, 1988), pp. 86-88.55. M.H. Merson, "Acute Respiratory InfectionsControl Programme: Summary Overview—Progress and Plans," paper presented at theNinth Meeting of Interested Parties, DiarrhoealDiseases Control Programme andAcute Respiratory Infections Control Program,World Health Organization, Geneva,June 29-30,1989, pp. 2-3.56. H.R. Hapsara, Director, Division of EpidemiologicalSurveillance and Health Situationand Trend Assessment, World HealthOrganization, Geneva, July 1991 (personalcommunication).57. Op. cit. 55, pp. 3-4.58. United Nations Children's Fund, The State ofthe World's Children, 1991 (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1991), p. 4.59. Op. cit. 12.60. United Nations Children's Fund, The State ofthe World's Children, 1990 (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1990), p. 21.61. Op. cit. 12.62. Programme for Control of Diarrhoeal Diseases,Interim Programme Report 1990 (WorldHealth Organization, Geneva, 1991), pp. 34-36.63. Norbert Hirschhorn and William B.Greenough, III, "Progress in Oral RehydrationTherapy," Scientific American, Vol. 264,No. 5 (May 1991), p. 50.64. Op. cit. 58.65. "Water with Sugar and Salt," The Lancet (August5,1978), p. 300.66. Op. cit. 17, p. 47.67. Op. cit. 60, pp. 22-23.68. Cereal Based Oral Rehydration Therapy for Diarrhoea:Report of the International Symposiumon Cereal Based Oral Rehydration Therapy,Katherine Elliott and Kathy Attawell, eds.(The Aga Khan Foundation and the InternationalChild Health Foundation, Columbia,Maryland, 1990), pp. 17-18.69. Op. cit. 60.70. Anne Gadomski and Robert E. Black, "Impactof the Direct Interventions," in ChildSurvival Programs: Issues for the 1990s (TheJohns Hopkins University, School of Hygieneand Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland,1990), p. 86.71. Barry M. Popkin, Linda Adair, John S. Akin,et al., "Breast-Feeding and Diarrheal Morbidity,"Pediatrics, Vol. 86, No. 6 (December1990), p. 874.72. Expanded Programme on Immunization,"Information System," World Health Organization,Geneva, April 1991, Table 1.1.2, p. 2.73. Op. cit. 58, pp. 1,5, and 15.74. Op. cit. 12.75. "Plan of Action for Implementing the WorldDeclaration on the Survival, Protection andDevelopment of Children in the 1990s," inUnited Nations Children's Fund, The State ofthe World's Children, 1991 (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1991), p. 74.76. Op. cit. 12.77. Op. cit. 60, p. 24.78. M.A. Koenig, M.A. Khan, B. Wojtyniak, etal., "The Impact of Measles Vaccination onChildhood Mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh,"Programs Division, Working PaperNo. 3 (The Population Council, New York,June 1990), p. 13.79. Op. cit. 12.80. Vincent Fauveau, Robert Steinglass,Masuma Mamdani, et al., "Maternal MortalityDue to Tetanus: Magnitude of the Problemand Potential Control Measures," paperpresented at the National Council for InternationalHealth meeting, Arlington, Virginia,June 1991 (John Snow, Inc., Arlington,Virginia, 1991).81. Neonatal Tetanus Elimination: Issues and FutureDirections, Proceedings of a Meetingheld January 9-11,1990 (Resources for ChildHealth and MotherCare with the U.S.Agency for International Development, Alexandria,Virginia, 1990), p. 1.82. Op. cit. 58, p. 14.83. Roxane M. Eikhof, Information Officer, ExpandedProgram on Immunization, PanAmerican Health Organization, Washington,D.C., September 1991 (personal communication).84. Division of Control of Tropical Diseases,"World Malaria Situation, 1988," WorldHealth Statistics Quarterly, Vol. 43, No. 2(World Health Organization, Geneva, 1988),p. 78.85. J.G. Breman and C. C. Campbell, "CombattingSevere Malaria in African Children,"Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Vol.66, No. 5 (World Health Organization, Geneva,1988), p. 611.86. Division of Epidemiological Surveillanceand Health Situation and Trend Assessment,"Introduction," World Health StatisticsQuarterly, Vol. 43, No. 2 (World Health Organization,Geneva, 1990), p. 50.87. Op. cit. 12.88. Op. cit. 44, p. 27.89. Op. cit. 84.90. Beverley A. Carlson and Tessa M. Wardlaw,"A Global, Regional and Country Assessmentof Child Malnutrition," Staff WorkingPaper No. 7 (United Nations Children'sFund, New York, 1990), p. 12.91. Ibid., p. 22.92. Op. cit. 58, p. 29.93. United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF),Strategy for Improved Nutrition of Children andWomen in Developing Countries (UNICEF,New York, 1990), p. 9.94. Andrew Tomkins and Fiona Watson, "Malnutritionand Infection: A Review," NutritionPolicy Discussion Paper No. 5, UnitedNations Administrative Committee on Coordination,Subcommittee on Nutrition, NewYork, October 1989, p. 1.95. Op. cit. 60, p. 17.96. R.R. Puffer and C. Serrano, Patterns of Mortalityin Childhood, Scientific Publication No.262, Pan American Health Organization(PAHO), Washington, D.C., 1973, cited inHealth Conditions in the Americas: 1990 Edition,Vol. I, Scientific Publication No. 524(PAHO, Washington, D.C., 1990), Note 17,p. 116.97. Op. cit. 90, pp. 15-17.98. Op. cit. 94.99. Op. cit. 93.100. Jon E. Rohde, "Why the Other Half Dies:The Science and Politics of Child Mortalityin the Third World," Assignment Children,Vol. 61-62 (1983), p. 45.101. World Health Organization (WHO), "Infantand Young Child Nutrition," ExecutiveBoard Paper EB85/18, WHO, Geneva, December8,1989, cited in Timberlake andThomas, When the Bough Breaks, (EarthscanPublications, London, 1990), Note 8, p. 118.102. Op. cit. 53, p. 58.103. Op. cit. 58, pp. 24,43.104. Op. cit. 93.105. Op. cit. 60, p. 34.106. Alfred Sommer, Ignatius Tarwotjo, and JoanneKatz, "Increased Risk of XerophthalmiaFollowing Diarrhea and RespiratoryDisease," American journal of Clinical Nutrition,Vol. 45 (1987), p. 977.107. Richard G. Feachem, "Vitamin A Deficiencyand Diarrhoea: A Review of Interrelationshipsand their Implications for the Controlof Xerophthalmia and Diarrhoea," TropicalDiseases Bulletin, Vol. 84, No. 3 (1987), p.R14.108. Gregory B. Hussey and Max Klein, "A Randomized,Controlled Trial of Vitamin A inChildren with Severe Measles," New Englandjournal of Medicine, Vol. 323, No. 3(July 19,1990), p. 160.109. Keith P. West, Jr., R.P. Pokhrel, JoanneKatz, et al., "Efficacy of Vitamin A in ReducingPreschool Child Mortality in Nepal,"Lancet, Vol. 338 (July 13,1991), p. 67.110. Alfred Sommer, Dean, School of Hygieneand Public Health, The Johns Hopkins University,September 1991 (personal communication).111. Op. cit. 60, p. 38.112. C. Gopalan, "Vitamin A and Child Mortality,"NFIBulletin, Vol. 11, No. 3 (NutritionFoundation of India, New Delhi, July 1990).113. U.S. Agency for International Development(U.S. AID), Child Survival 1985-1990: A SixthReport to Congress on the USAID Program(U.S. AID, Washington, D.C., May 1991), p.25.114. Op. cit. 93, p. 29.115. United Nations Administrative Committeeon Coordination Subcommittee on Nutrition,"Malnutrition and Infection," SCNNews, No. 4 (Late 1989), p. 10.116. Op. cit. 58, p. 40.117. Op. cit. 26, p. 44.118. Op. cit. 53, p. 68.119. Op. cit. 58, pp. 43-45.120. Richard W. Franke and Barbara H. Chasin,Kerala: Radical Reform as Development in an IndianState, (Institute for Food and DevelopmentPolicy, San Francisco, October 1989),p. 11.121. Dirk Bryant, Research Assistant, World ResourcesInstitute, unpublished data, 1991.122. Op. cit. 26, pp. 56-57.123. Bread for the World Institute on Hungerand Development, Hunger 1990: A Report onthe State of World Hunger (Bread for theWorld, Washington, D.C., 1990), pp. 27-28.124. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,Healthy People 2000: National HealthPromotion and Disease Prevention Objectives,Conference Edition, (Government PrintingOffice, Washington, D.C., September 1990),pp. 29-31.World Resources 1992-9391

6 Population and Human Development125. "Inequalities in Health: Report of a ResearchWorking Group," D. Black et ah, eds.(DHSS, London, 1980), cited in MargaretWhitehead, The Concepts and Principles of Equityand Health, (World Health OrganizationRegional Office for Europe, Copenhagen,1990), Note 12, p. 2.126. U.S.S.R. Government Committee for Statistics,U.S.S.R. Demographic Yearbook: 1990 (InformationPublishing Center, Moscow,1990), p. 382.127. H. Behm and E. Vargas, Guatemala: DiferenciasSocioeconomicas de la Mortalidad de losMenores de dos Anos, 1968-1976 (Ministry ofEconomics, Directorate General of Statistics,Republic of Guatemala and CELADE, SanJose, Costa Rica, 1984), Series A/1044, citedin Pan American Health Organization(PAHO), Health Conditions in the Americas:2990 Edition, Vol. I, Scientific PublicationNo. 524 (PAHO, Washington, D.C., 1990),p. 47.128. Op. cit. 56.129. Steven A. Esrey, James B. Potash, Leslie Roberts,et al., "Effects of Improved Water Supplyand Sanitation on Ascariasis, Diarrhoea,Dracunculiasis, Hookworm Infection, Schistosomiasis,and Trachoma," Bulletin of theWorld Health Organization, Vol. 69, No. 5(World Health Organization, Geneva, forthcoming).130. Ibid.131. Richard G. Feachem, "Interventions for theControl of Diarrhoeal Diseases AmongYoung Children: Promotion of Personal andDomestic Hygiene," Bulletin of the WorldHealth Organization, Vol. 62, No. 3 (WorldHealth Organization, Geneva, 1984), pp.467-476, cited in Branko Cvjetanovic,"Health Effects and Impact of Water Supplyand Sanitation," World Health Statistics Quarterly,Vol. 39 (World Health Organization,Geneva, 1986), p. 111.132. Op. cit. 129.133. Branko Cvjetanovic, "Health Effects and Impactof Water Supply and Sanitation,"World Health Statistics Quarterly, Vol. 39(World Health Organization, Geneva, 1986),p. 116.134. Joanne Leslie, Margaret Lycette, and MayraBuvinic, "Weathering Economic Crises: TheCrucial Role of Women in Health," in DavidE. Bell and Michael R. Reach, Health, Nutrition,and Economic Crises: Approaches to Policyin the Third World (Auburn House, Dover,Massachusetts, 1986), p. 307.135. Susan H. Cochrane, Joanne Leslie, and DonaldJ. O'Hara, "Parental Education andChild Health: Intracountry Evidence,"Health Policy and Education, Vol. 2 (1982),p. 213.136. Op. cit. 134, p. 313.137. Shea Oscar Rutstein, "Levels, Trends andDifferentials in Infant and Child Mortalityin the Less Developed Countries," paperprepared for the "Child Survival Interventions:Effectiveness and Efficiency" seminar,Institute for Resource Development, June1991, p. 5.138. Op. cit. 134, p. 313.139. Op. cit. 134, p. 313.140. Op. cit. 135, pp. 213-214.141. Op. cit. 135, p. 247.142. Kim Streatfield, Masri Singarimbun, andIan Diamond, "Maternal Education andChild Immunization," Demography, Vol. 27,No. 3 (August 1990), pp. 454-455.143. United Nations (U.N.), The World's Women:1970-1990 (U. N., New York, 1991), p. 82.144. Joanne Leslie, "Women's Time: A Factor inthe Use of Child Survival Technologies?"(International Center for Research onWomen, Washington, D.C., 1988), pp. 8 and23.145. Op. cit. 60, pp. 43-44.146. Op. cit. 44, p. 28.147. Op. cit. 44, pp. 18-20.148. S. Skerfvig, "Mercury in Women Exposed toMethylmercury through Fish Consumption,and in Their Newborn Babies and BreastMilk," Bulletin of Environmental ContaminationToxicology, No. 41 (1988), cited inUnited Nations Environment Program(UNEP) and United Nations Children'sFund (UNICEF), Children and the Environment:The State of the Environment, 1990(UNEP and UNICEF, Nairobi and NewYork, 1990), p. 19.149. Walter J. Rogan, Beth C. Gladen, Kun-LongHung, et al., "Congenital Poisoning by PolychlorinatedBiphenyls and their Contaminantsin Taiwan," Science, Vol. 241 (July 15,1988), p. 334.150. Op. cit. 44, pp. 19-20.151. Op. cit. 44, p. 28.152. World Health Organization (WHO), Urbanizationand Its Implications for Child Health: Potentialfor Action (WHO, in collaborationwith the United Nations Environment Programme,Geneva, 1988), p. 18.153. W. Hoge, "New Menace in Brazil's Valleyof Death Strikes Unborn," New York Times,September 25,1980, cited in World HealthOrganization (WHO), Urbanization and ItsImplications for Child Health: Potential for Action(WHO, in collaboration with the UnitedNations Environment Programme, Geneva,1988), pp. 17-18.154. W. Dassen, B. Brunekreet, G. Hock, et al.,"Decline in Children's Pulmonary FunctionDuring an Air Pollution Episode," fournal ofthe Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 36,No. 11 (1986), p. 1,223.155. Ayana I. Goren and Sarah Hellmann, "Prevalenceof Respiratory Symptoms and Diseasesin Schoolchildren Living in a Pollutedand in a Low Polluted Area in Israel," EnvironmentalResearch, Vol. 45, No. 1 (1988),p. 24.156. Herbert L. Needleman, "The PersistentThreat of Lead: A Singular Opportunity,"Commentary, American Journal of PublicHealth, Vol. 79, No. 5 (May 1989), p. 644.157. Herbert L. Needleman, Alan Schell, DavidBellinger, et al, "The Long-Term Effects ofExposure to Low Doses of Lead in Childhood:An 11-Year Follow-Up Report," NewEngland Journal of Medicine, Vol. 322, No. 2(January 11,1990), p. 83.158. Herbert L. Needleman and Constantine A.Gatsonis, "Low-Level Lead Exposure andthe IQ of Children: A Meta-Analysis of ModernStudies," Journal of the American MedicalAssociation, Vol. 263, No. 5 (February 2,1990), p. 673.159. Op. cit. 156, p. 643.160. J. S. Lin-Fu, "Historical Perspective onHealth Effects of Lead," in Kathryn R.Mahaffey, ed., Dietary and EnvironmentalLead: Human Health Effects (Elsevier, Amsterdam,1985), pp. 58-59.161. 7Wd.,p. 55.162. Gilberto Molina, Miguel A. Zufiiga, AdolfoCardenas, et. al., "Psychological Alterationsin Children Exposed to a Lead Rich HomeEnvironment," PAHO Bulletin, Vol. 17, No.2 (1983), p. 191.163. Op. cit. 44, p. 30.164. State of India's Environment, 1982: A Citizen'sReport (Centre for Science and the Environment,Delhi, 1983), cited in World HealthOrganization (WHO), Urbanization and ItsImplications for Child Health: Poten tial for Action(WHO, in collaboration with the UnitedNations Environment Programme, Geneva,1988), p. 30.165. S. Sani, "Urbanization and the AtmosphericEnvironment in Southeast Asia," paper presentedat the Seminar of Development, Environmentand the Natural Resource Crisis inAsia and the Pacific, Penang, Malaysia (October1983), cited in World Health Organization(WHO), Urbanization and Its Implicationsfor Child Health: Potential for Action (WHO,in collaboration with the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Geneva, 1988),p. 30.166. P.T. Achayo Were, "The Development ofRoad Transport in Africa and Its Effects onLand Use and Environment," Industry andEnvironment, Vol. 6, No. 2 (1983), pp. 25-26,cited in World Health Organization (WHO),Urbanization and Its Implications for ChildHealth: Potential for Action (WHO, in collaborationwith the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Geneva, 1988), p. 30.167. Fernando M. Carvalho, Annibal M. Silvany-Neto, Tania M. Tavares, et al., "Lead PoisoningAmong Children From Santa Amaro,Brazil," Bulletin of the Pan American HealthOrganization (PAHO), Vol. 19, No. 2(PAHO, Washington, D.C., 1985), p. 168.168. Hilary F. French, "Clearing the Air," State ofthe World, 1990 (WorldWatch Institute,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 103.169. Op. cit. 160, pp. 53-54.170. Paul Mushak and Annemarie F. Crocetti,The Nature and Extent of Lead Poisoning inChildren in the United States: A Report to Congress(U.S. Department of Health andHuman Services, Agency for Toxic Substancesand Disease Registry, Washington,D.C., 1988), pp. 1-11,1-12.171. Op. cit. 53, p. 221.172. Op. cit. 44, p. 26.173. Op. cit. 152, p. 65.174. Op. cit. 152, pp. 18-31.175. Op. cit. 152, p. 7.176. Op. cit. 100, p. 37.177. United Nation's Children Fund, The State ofthe World's Children, 1992 (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, forthcoming).178. Elizabeth A. Preble, "Impact of HIV/AIDSon African Children," Social Science Medicine,Vol. 31, No. 6 (June 1990), p. 679.179. Per Miljetieg-Olssen, Public Affairs Officer,Division of Public Affairs, United NationsChildren's Fund, New York, August 1991(personal communication).180. Op. cit. 58, p. 15.92World Resources 1992-93

7. Food and AgricultureGlobal food production has increased substantiallyover the past two decades, but factors such as populationpressures and environmental degradation are underminingagriculture's current condition and futureprospects.Measured in absolute terms, global production increaseshave been impressive. But in some regions, notablyAfrica, farmers have not been able to keep pacewith rapid increases in population. Africa also is heavilyburdened by poverty, which deprives people of thepurchasing power to buy food, and by wars, whichdisrupt food production and distribution.As population increases, how will farmers in the developingworld keep up? Higher yields, not expandedarea, have been responsible for most of the recent productionincreases. To continue that production surgewill require new economic advantages such as higherprices or new physical advantages such as additionalirrigated land or increased use of inputs. Yet, priceshave not provided much incentive in developing countries,investment in irrigation has lagged, and in someregions water is being withdrawn at unsustainablerates. Furthermore, adding inputs such as fertilizerscarries substantial environmental risks.Farmers in the industrialized world face a differentset of pressures. They are increasingly aware of the environmentaltoll taken by conventional farming practices,which can rapidly erode farm soils and washfertilizers and pesticides into surface waters. To solvethese problems, some farmers are using a variety of alternativepractices that help reduce pollution andmaintain farm resources.Governments in industrialized countries havetended to forge agricultural policies that support conventionalfarming and ignore its environmental costs.But some government policies are beginning to changeas awareness of environmental degradation grows,giving farmers new incentives to adopt resource-conservingalternative practices.A change in thinking also is underway. Policymakersonly now are beginning to integrate the environmentalcosts of farming with its economic structure.Soil erosion, for example, costs farmers money by reducingfuture production, yet this kind of loss neverappeared on farmers' books. When such losses arequantified, resource-conserving practices can be botheconomically and environmentally superior to conventionalpractices.World Resources 1992-9393

7 Food and AgricultureCONDITIONS AND TRENDSGlobal TrendsProspects for global food and agriculture are at oncepromising and troubling. On the one hand, globalfood production has increased since 1970 and has generallybeen able to meet the demands of a growingworld population. In addition, bumper harvests in the1990-91 crop year exceeded global consumption andhelped reverse a three-year decline in world cerealstocks (1).It is unclear whether production increases can continueindefinitely. Some factors augur well for globalproduction—for example, improvements in the emergingmarket economies of Central Europe and possiblya multilateral agreement to liberalize agriculturaltrade. In the longer term, improvements in the SovietUnion's farm economy are certainly possible. Bettercontrol of diseases (human and farm animal) couldalso open up large areas of potentially productivefarming and grazing land in Africa.On the other hand, most agricultural production inthe world uses farming practices that are environmentallyunsustainable. New efforts are underway in theindustrialized countries to encourage more sustainablepractices, but these efforts are as yet quite modest. (SeeFocus On Agriculture in the Industrialized World: TowardSustainability, below.)In developing countries, however, populationgrowth and poverty subvert efforts to introduce sustainablepractices and encourage agriculture to expandin ways detrimental to the environment. Populationgrowth causes marginal land to be cultivated and contributesto environmental problems such as soil erosionand deforestation. Population growth also posesan immense challenge to farm productivity: it is farfrom certain that farmers will be able to adopt sustainablepractices and still grow enough food to feed a projectedworld population of 10 billion or more people inthe next century.In the industrialized countries, food supplies are adequate,populations are relatively stable, incomes arerelatively high, and—although poverty still exists—most people are able to buy all the food they require.Beyond a certain point, increases in income do not producemuch additional demand for food. Instead, additionalproduction—due mainly to technologicalinnovation and farm policies—tends to generate surpluses.In developing countries, agriculture varies considerablyfrom region to region. In general, production is increasingin all regions. But in many regions, includingAfrica, Latin America, and parts of Asia, demand is severelyrestrained by lack of purchasing power. Shortagesof foreign exchange during the recession of the1980s further depressed food imports in Africa andLatin America.In Africa, production increases have not kept upwith population growth, and famine continues to be aserious problem in some areas. Wars—which can disruptfood production, markets, and relief efforts—Figure 7.1 World Production of SelectedFood Crops, 1970-89(million metric tons)2000-Cereals — Pulses, Friuts, — Meat, RootVegetables, Milk & CropsMelons & Oils FishSources:1. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), QuarterlyBulletin of Statistics, Vol. 2 (1990), p. 37.2. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 1988 FisheryStatistics: Catches and Landings, Vol. 66 (1990), p. 83.Note: Data are measured in five-year intervals for 1970-80, and in single-yearintervals for 1983-89.have contributed heavily to famine in many Africancountries in recent years (2). Drought, poor distributionand marketing, and ineffective government policiesalso have been important factors. Sudan and Ethiopiaare in a particularly perilous condition; famine threatensmillions of people in these two countries (3). Butthe problem is wider than that: maintaining per capitacereal consumption in 55 low-income countries at the1980-89 level required an estimated 16 million metrictons of food aid in 1990-91, yet only about 10 millionmetric tons were available (4).Estimates of the number of people in the world whoare undernourished range from about 500 million toabout 1 billion. The absolute number of undernourishedpeople may be increasing slightly, although theproportion of the population that is undernourishedappears to be declining in all regions except Africa.(See World Resources 1990-91, p. 88.)PRODUCTION TRENDSThe world's output of major food crops—including cerealsand the main noncereal crops such as roots andtubers, pulses (peas, beans, and lentils), groundnuts,and bananas and plantains—has expanded significantlyover the past 20 years. The most dramatic increaseoccurred in the production of cereals, whichrose about 50 percent, from about 1.2 billion metrictons in 1970 to about 1.8 billion metric tons in 1989.Fruit and vegetables have also made gains, as havemeat, milk, and fish; production of root crops has remainedstable. (See Figure 7.1.) Much of the year-toyearvariation in world production has been due toweather- or policy-induced fluctuations in the industrialcountries (5).94World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 7Figure 7.2 Index of Food Production inDeveloping Regions, 1970-90(inde> numbers, 1970=100)Far East~ Asia, Centrally Planned Economies J^,- ~ Latin America y/— Near East y' yA .Africa / • / ' ,-vFigure 7.4 Index of Food Imports intoDeveloping Countries by Volume and Value,1970-89(index numbers, 1979-81=100)140-200-180-160-140-120-100-Total Volume— Unit Value— Total Value1970 1975 1980 1985 1990Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), unpublisheddata, March 1991.Notes:a. Far East = Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, East Timor, Hong Kong,India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Lao People's Democratic Republic,Macao, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore,Sri Lanka, Thailand.b. Asia, Centrally Planned Economies = Cambodia, China, DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea, Mongolia, Viet Nam.c. Near East = Africa. Egypt, Libya, Sudan. Asia: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Cyprus,Gaza Strip (Palestine), Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait,Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic,Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen Arab Republic, Democratic Yemen.Figure 7.3 Index of Grain Production,Cropland Area, and Yields in DevelopingCountries, 1970-90Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), unpublisheddata, March 1991.creases in yield rather than increases in cropland. (SeeFigure 7.3.)Imports of food into developing countries have alsogrown, helped by slight declines in prices from 1980 to1987. (See Figure 7.4.) In some South American countries,however, both the volume and value of food importsdropped over the past decade. (See Chapter 18,"Food and Agriculture," Table 18.4.) Food exports bydeveloping countries have also risen substantiallysince 1970, although the increase was primarily drivenby increases in volume in the 1980s. (See Figure 7.5.)Livestock and FisheriesLivestock populations have risen about 18 percentover the past 20 years. India now has about 200 mil-Figure 7.5 Index of Food Exports fromDeveloping Countries by Volume and Value,1970-89(index numbers, 1970=100)— Cropland Area Yield — Production(index numbers, 1979-81=100)140-Every region of the developing world has substantiallyincreased its food production since 1970. Productionin the Asian centrally planned economies hasroughly doubled, while the Near East (Egypt, Libya,Sudan, and the Middle East) and Latin America haveregistered increases in the 60-80 percent range. Productionin Africa is up over 40 percent. (See Figure 7.2.)Most of these production increases came from in-uo-Total Volume — Unit Value — Total ValueSource: Kim Hjort, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personal communication).Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),unpublished data, March 1991.World Resources 1982-9395

7 Food and AgricultureFigure 7.6 Index of Per Capita FoodProduction in Developing Regions, 1970-90(index numbers, 1970=100)160 -i1970Far East~~ Asia, Centrally Planned Economies- - Latin America~ Near EastAfricaSource: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),unpublished data, March 1991.Notes:a. Far East = Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, East Timor, HongKong, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Lao People's Democratic Republic,Macao, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore,Sri Lanka, Thailand.b. Asia, Centrally Planned Economies = Cambodia, China, DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea, Mongolia, Viet Nam.c. Near East = Africa: Egypt, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Sudan. Asia: Afghanistan,Bahrain, Cyprus, Gaza Strip (Palestine), Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq,Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, SyrianArab Republic, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen Arab Republic, DemocraticYemen.lion cattle and about 12 million hectares under permanentpasture; the United States and the Soviet Unioneach have cattle populations of about 100 million ormore. Pig populations are up about 57 percent, withmuch of that increase occurring in China, which, withsome 340 million pigs, now has roughly 40 percent ofthe global total. The global population of chickens hasdoubled since 1970, rising from 5.2 billion to 10.4 billion(6) (7).The average annual world catch of fish increased 67percent from 1969 to 1989. However, preliminary dataindicate that the global fish catch declined about 4 percentin 1990, the first decline in 13 years (8). Increasedcatches have severely stressed many species: catches ofAtlantic cod, haddock, Atlantic herring, capelin, SouthernAfrican pilchard, Pacific Ocean perch, King Crab,and Peruvian anchoveta have all declined. Aquaculture—thefarming of aquatic organisms—has grownsubstantially and now represents about 13 percent oftotal fish production (9). (See Chapter 12, "Oceans andCoasts.")PER CAPITA PRODUCTION TRENDSProduction increases in the developing countries since1970 are much less dramatic when population growthis taken into consideration. As Figure 7.6 indicates, theAsian centrally planned economies managed to increaseproduction fast enough to stay well ahead ofpopulation growth. In Latin America and the NearEast, however, production barely managed to stayeven with population, and in Africa populationgrowth outstripped production increases.In many African countries, per capita production declinedsignificantly. The index of per capita productioncompiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe United Nations (FAO), using the 1979-81 period asa baseline of 100, shows that 35 of 47 countriesdropped below 100 in 1989, with the worst declines incountries such as Angola, Botswana, Gabon, Mozambique,and Rwanda. Per capita production fluctuateddramatically in several countries during the 1980s: inSudan, for example, the index fell to 75.87 in 1987,jumped to 94.50 in 1988, and then dropped back to74.30 in 1989 (10). Many factors contribute to these fluctuations,including variations in rainfall, rapidlychanging prices, and civil and ethnic unrest.Population Density and AgricultureLargely because of population growth, per capita croplandhas declined in all regions. If current populationprojections are accurate, the world average of 0.28 hectaresof cropland per capita is expected to decline to0.17 hectares by the year 2025. In Asia, cropland percapita is expected to decline to 0.09 hectares. There arelarge areas of uncultivated land in sub-Saharan Africaand Latin America, but in much of this area the soil ismarginal or rainfall is unreliable. (See World Resources1990-91, pp. 87-88.)In many countries, severe population pressure onmarginal lands contributes to deforestation, soil erosion,and the loss of biodiversity.In the Philippines, for example, population growthof about 2.5 percent per year is outpacing the job-creatingcapacity of the Philippine economy. Unemploymenthas increased from below 5 percent in the early1970s to almost 10 percent by the end of the 1980s (ll).With limited opportunities in urban areas, and withthe limits of lowland agriculture now nearly reached,farmers have been moving into upland areas. By 1987,an estimated 30 percent of the country's population—18 million people—were living in upland areas. Thismovement into the uplands was inadvertently encouragedby government logging policies that reduced thecost of migration and settlement: logging roads madeforest lands accessible, and logging cleared the land,thus saving upland farmers as much as 60 percent ofthe total labor associated with upland production (12).(See Chapter 8, "Forests and Rangelands.")ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDSSoil DegradationFarming activities are major contributors to soil erosion,salinization, and loss of nutrients. A global assessmentof human-induced soil degradation, prepared bythe International Soil Reference and Information Centrein the Netherlands, found that 1.96 billion hectaresof soils were degraded to some degree, and that 300million hectares of this total have suffered strong to extremedegradation. (See Chapter 8, "Forests andRangelands.") Agricultural activities accounted for 2896World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 7percent of this degradation overgrazing about 34 percent,and deforestation another 29 percent. Most of thedamage has been done by wind and water erosion;other forms of degradation include salinization, loss ofnutrients, compaction, and waterlogging (13). Most ofthe land damaged by agriculture and overgrazing is inAsia and Africa.A study of an irrigation district in eastern UttarPradesh in India found that 87 percent of the farmersreported problems with alkalinity, salinity, or waterloggingthat forced 29 percent of cropland out of production.The study found that rice yields decreased bymore than 50 percent on salt-affected soils, and thatwaterlogging reduced wheat yields by about 78 percent.The study recommended two remedial actions:promoting horizontal as well as vertical drainage, andpreventing canal seepage (14).Inputs of Fertilizers, Pesticides, and FreshwaterSynthetic fertilizers are needed to take full advantageof the high-yield crop varieties developed during theGreen Revolution. Global fertilizer use has increaseddramatically since 1970, especially in Asia and particularlyin China. (See Chapter 18, "Food and Agriculture,"Table 18.2.) There is now considerable evidencethat the runoff of fertilizers into rivers and estuaries isa significant source of water pollution. (See Focus On,below, and Chapters 11, "Freshwater," and 12,"Oceans and Coasts.")Available data also indicate large increases in theuse of pesticides (herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides)over the past two decades; currently, increasesare mainly in developing countries. These substancesenhance production, but they also pose risks to farmworkersand the general public. The incidence of unintentionalpesticide poisoning is poorly documentedbut is considered significant, causing perhaps 20,000deaths and 1 million illnesses per year worldwide. Pesticidepoisonings occur primarily in developing countries(15).Freshwater withdrawals—most of which are used foragriculture in developing countries—have increasedsteadily since the 1960s. Agriculture accounts for 86 percentof water withdrawals in Asia, with most of thewater used for irrigation. In many countries—in NorthAfrica and the Middle East, for example—water withdrawalsappear to be occurring at unsustainable rates(16). (See Chapter 11, "Freshwater," Key Issues.)ECONOMIC TRENDSTrends in Agricultural Commodity PricesInternational agricultural commodity prices have declinedin real terms in recent decades. By 1989, mostfarm commodity prices had dropped to about 60-70percent of their 1970 levels. Prices for cereals in the late1980s were about half the level of the 1970s and early1980s. Rice prices, which in real terms generally stayedabove $350 per metric ton in the 1970s, collapsed in the1980s to around $200 per metric ton (in 1980 dollars).(See Chapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators," TableFigure 7.7 Index of International FarmCommodity Prices, 1970-89(constant prices, 1979-81=100)160-1— Food Nonfood Agricultural Commodities1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988Source: Chapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators," Table 15.4.Note: Food commodities include beverages (coffee, cocoa, tea), cereals(maize, rice, wheat, grain sorghum), fats and oils (palm oil, coconut oil,groundnut oil, soybeans, copra, groundnut meal, soybean meal), and otherfood (sugar, beef, bananas, oranges). Nonfood agricultural commodities includecotton, jute, rubber, and tobacco.15.4.) This decline has significantly affected the economiesof many nonindustrialized nations that dependon commodity exports.Over a longer term, prices of nonfood agriculturalcommodities—e.g., cotton, jute, wool, and natural rubber—haveshown a pronounced decline. The substitutionof petroleum-based synthetic products in the mid-1950s depressed prices of natural rubber and natural fibers.This price decline continued through the 1960sand even through the two oil price shocks of the 1970s.(See Figure 7.7.)Agricultural food prices have also declined, but notalways uniformly. In the 1984-86 period, for example,prices of tropical beverages (coffee, tea, and cocoa)were relatively stonger than cereals, providing an advantageto countries that exported beverages. Developingcountries that exported tropical beverages,especially those that were large net importers of mostother foods, were helped by this difference (17). After1986 beverage prices also dropped.The decline in real agricultural commodity priceshas complex causes that are generally thought to includethe inelasticity of demand for foodstuffs in industrializedcountries, increased supplies due toincreases in productivity and technological innovation,prolonged protection of producers in the industrializedmarket economies, and slow income growth inthe developing countries. Export subsidies in industrializedcountries designed to dispose of these surpluseshave increased the supply produced for export, thusfurther weakening prices (18).Falling commodity prices have hurt some countriesmore than others. In Southeast Asia, which has diversifiedits exports into manufactured goods, the changehas been less difficult than in Africa, which is increasinglydependent on traditional commodity exports.Production increases in many developing countriesWorld Resources 1992-9397

7 Food and Agriculturehelped offset the decline in value of agricultural commodities(19). As Figure 7.5 indicates, the total value offood exports from developing regions has risen considerablysince 1970, thanks primarily to continuing increasesin export volume.Declining Investment in IrrigationThe expansion of irrigation has slowed considerablyover the past 25 years. The growth rate of irrigatedarea in the world has declined by about 60 percentglobally and by 72 percent in Asia since the mid-1960s.Lending and assistance for irrigation by the four mainfinancial donors—the World Bank, Asian DevelopmentBank (ADB), U.S. Agency for International Development(U.S. AID), and the Japanese Overseas EconomicCooperation Fund (OECF)—was 50 percentlower in 1986-87 than during the 1977-79 period (20).In Asia, this slowdown appears to be related to thedecline in demand for rice, the increasing real costs perhectare of new irrigation, the debt loads carried bysome countries in the region, and the declining shareof undeveloped land that can be irrigated.Some countries, such as India, have responded tothe decline in international lending by increasing domesticspending; but most countries—including Indonesia,the Philippines, and Thailand—have reducedtheir own spending. The continuing decline in themaintenance and quality of existing irrigation infrastructurehas also had an adverse effect on farm productivity(21).World Bank LendingWorld Bank lending to agriculture and rural developmentprojects fell by almost one fifth between 1977-79and 1986-88. The share of such projects in total WorldBank lending declined from 30 to 17 percent duringthis period. The decline has been attributed to severalfactors including lower world rice prices, which havelowered the anticipated rate of return of some proposedprojects below acceptable levels; the belowaveragerates of return of previous projects, especiallyin sub-Saharan Africa; and the World Bank's new emphasison economic restructuring loans (22).Key IssuesTRADE LIBERALIZATION AND THE GATTNEGOTIATIONSReluctance to reduce agricultural subsidies and importbarriers nearly caused the Uruguay Round of the GeneralAgreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) tofounder early in 1991. Agricultural trade liberalizationin a new GATT agreement could have a major impacton commodity prices and on prospects for agriculturein developing countries.Many industrialized countries protect their agriculturalsectors with price supports, thus stimulating domesticproduction and creating surpluses. Thesesurpluses, shipped abroad as subsidized exports, depressinternational prices and reduce the trade revenuesof food-exporting developing countries. Thedumping of surpluses has particularly depressed theprices of highly protected commodities (dairy productsand beef, for example) that have smaller internationalmarkets (23).Most analyses argue that trade liberalization in industrializedcountries would reduce food supplies andincrease market prices in the short term. However, liberalizationthat includes developing countries couldcounteract price rises by stimulating increased productionamong developing country farmers (24). In addition,improved productivity due to technologicaladvances could counteract higher prices.In the short term, higher prices would redistributewealth throughout the world. Food-exporting developingcountries would benefit (25). For example, it is estimatedthat if industrial countries were to lift nontariffbarriers, developing countries' earnings from exportsof fruits and vegetables could rise by as much as 24 to36 percent (26). In addition, farmers throughout the developingworld—the vast majority of the world'spoor—would benefit (27). Higher food prices would improverural wages and slow rural-urban migration (28).Higher food prices would hurt other groups, however,especially food-importing countries and urbanconsumers. Many of the world's poorest countries relyon subsidized food imports from the industrial countries.To minimize shocks to consumers, liberalizationwould have to be phased in slowly (29) with compensationnegotiated for these countries (30). Higher pricescould also hurt urban consumers in food-exportingcountries, although their losses might be offset byhigher national income (31).With liberalization, food production would shift toproducers with comparative advantages in land, labor,and climate. In the long term, the resulting gains ineconomic efficiency could produce a substantial dividendfor the world economy (32). From an environmentalperspective, adapting cropping patterns to theunderlying productive capacities of the land would bean important step in the evolution to sustainable agriculture(33).The impact of multilateral liberalization on three importanttropical agricultural commodities—coffee, tea,and cocoa—could be quite different from that on temperate-zonecommodities. Most importing nations imposelow-to-moderate tariffs, which, if removed,would increase revenue to producer nations. Most producingcountries, however, have imposed large taxeson producers. Removing those taxes would create asubstantial incentive to increase production. Higherproduction, in turn, could depress international prices,and the value of trade in coffee, tea, and cocoa coulddecline substantially (34).FOCUS ON AGRICULTURE IN THEINDUSTRIALIZED WORLD: TOWARDSUSTAINABILITYFarming in the industrialized countries has successfullyproduced food and fiber, yet it also has caused98World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 7environmental degradation, creating serious problemsfor farmers (such as soil erosion) and, even worse, offfarmproblems (such as groundwater contamination).These problems, epitomized by a concern that currentagricultural practices are not sustainable, have ledmany agricultural scientists, economists, and farmersto rethink conventional farming practices. (A similarrethinking process is underway in the developingcountries, but this discussion is limited to the industrializedworld. Farmers in the industrialized and developingworlds face very different situations—in termsof climate, soils, size of holdings, available technologies,etc.—and space precludes considering the issuein both contexts.)What seems to be emerging is a range of environmentallybeneficial farming practices—a synthesisbased on both old, proven ideas and a new understandingof natural nutrient cycles and ecologicalrelationships.These practices must prove themselves in the complexworld of farm economics, which in all industrializedcountries is a maze of incentives, subsidies, pricedistortions and other factors. In the end, however,farmers operate in a world of profit and loss and mustconsider how new practices will affect the profitabilityof their farms. The world of profit and loss has largelyignored the world of the environment until quite recently.For example, farm soils in many areas havebeen eroding, yet that erosion has often been physicallysubtle and offset by greater use of fertilizers. Inany case, soil erosion does not show up on farmers'balance sheets, nor have farmers been held responsiblefor the cost of off-farm pollution, such as fertilizer runoffthat pollutes rivers or bays. (See Chapter 11, "Freshwater,"and Chapter 12, "Oceans and Coasts.")Each farmer's planting and operating decisions areinfluenced by government policies that provide a mixof incentives and guarantees to manipulate farm production.In industrialized countries, farm policies havegenerally tried to maintain stable incomes for farmersby keeping farm commodity prices high. This has provideda powerful incentive for farmers to use chemicalfertilizers, pesticides, and machinery to produce morecrops. However, as the environmental cost of thosepolicies becomes more evident, many governments arelooking at a variety of ways to encourage farmers toadopt resource-conserving practices.Many of these issues are being addressed by policymakersand research institutions. For example, a recentcomparison of the economics of conventional andalternative systems by the World Resources Institute(discussed in more detail below) considers the impactof various U.S. government policies and incorporatesthe economic cost of soil erosion.DEFINING TERMSThe complex relationship between environmental andeconomic considerations also shows up when definingterms such as "alternative agriculture." Different definitionsemphasize different environmental factors. TheU.S. National Research Council, in an important studyentitled Alternative Agriculture, defined alternative agricultureas any system of food or fiber production that:• Systematically incorporates natural processes, such asnutrient cycles, nitrogen fixation, and pest-predator relationships,into the agricultural production process;• Reduces the use of chemicals and fertilizers with thegreatest potential to harm the environment or thehealth of farmers and consumers;• Makes greater use of the biological and genetic potentialof plant and animal species;• Improves the match between cropping patterns andthe productive potential and physical limitations of agriculturallands in order to ensure the long-term sustainabilityof current production levels; and• Emphasizes improved farm management and conservationof soil, water, energy, and biological resources (35).Other definitions approach the issue from an economicperspective, in which the principal goal is tomaintain the stock of natural resources indefinitely. Inthis approach, natural resources, such as soil andgroundwater, are considered as forms of capital thatprovide a flow of economic benefits over time. Soil erosionmay not affect a farmer's short-term agriculturalpractices or income; however, farmers should includea depreciation allowance for erosion, because it jeopardizesthe future productivity of their land and thustheir future income (36). Sustainability, in this approach,is concerned with measuring whether stocksof natural resources are appreciating or depreciating.(See Box 7.1.)Different Perspectives and Open QuestionsThe question of definitions is further complicated bydifferent perspectives among the industrialized countries.Much of the European discussion concentrateson organic farming, or systems that rely heavily on nutrientrecycling and try to avoid all use of synthetic fertilizersand pesticides. Europeans, perhaps more thanAmericans, also question whether "low-input" andother alternative systems may be a short-term solutionthat is no more sustainable than the intensive use ofagrochemicals (37). In the U.S. debate, there has been atendency to lump reduced-input and organic systemstogether as resource-conserving "alternative" practices,in which the principal tests are environmentalprotection and long-term sustainability.Organic farming is growing, but it remains a minorpart of agriculture. In the European Community (EC),for example, organic farming accounts for less than 1percent of the industry (38), and it will probably continueto play a small role in industrialized countries.This chapter focuses on a greater range of alternativepractices that may become widespread and on howgovernment policies encourage or discourage suchpractices.The debate about alternative farming is connected towider social issues in many countries. In the UnitedStates, some groups link alternative farming with thepreservation of small farms and small towns in ruralareas (39). In Japan, one large organic farming associa-World Resources 1992-9399

7 Food and AgricultureBox 7.1 Glossary of TermsTraditional Agriculture. Practices such ascrop rotation, returning animal manuresto the soil, fully tilling the soil, and usinghorse- or ox-drawn cultivation.Conventional Agriculture. Full use ofchemical fertilizers and pesticides, continuouscropping or rotations, full tillage, andextensive use of machines. Conventionalapproaches emphasize high yields.Alternative Agriculture. Practices such ascrop rotation, reduced tillage or no-till, mechanical/biologicalweed control, integrationof livestock with crops, reduced useor no use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,integrated pest management, andprovision of nutrients from various organicsources (animal manures, legumes).Low-input systems generally involve reduceduse, rather than no use, of chemicalfertilizers and pesticides.Organic Agriculture. No use of chemicalfertilizers and pesticides; otherwise similarto alternative practices.Intensive Agriculture. Maximizing theamount of product per unit of land, generallywith increased use of chemicals, labor,and machinery.Extensive Agriculture. Maximizing theamount of land used in agricultural production.In Europe, extensification also impliessubstituting greater land area forchemicals to maintain production.tion has negotiated cooperative agreements betweenfarmers and consumers in which consumers agree tobuy all the produce of a group of organic farms and tohelp with its distribution (40). In Europe, the preservationof rural landscapes and wildlife habitat has beenan important part of the discussion (41), as have thestorage and disposal of animal manure from the intensivelivestock operations concentrated in northwestEurope.Apart from different perspectives and prioritiesamong the industrialized countries, many questions remainunsettled, including:Is a given practice conventional or alternative? Forexample, crop rotation has been used for centuries andis widely regarded as a conventional practice. However,some less common rotations are specifically designedfor resource conservation and thus could beconsidered alternative. Likewise, integrated pest management,improved methods for storing and applyinglivestock manures, and various types of reduced tillagecould be considered conventional practices, butthey are often discussed as alternative practices. Allare included here as alternative practices.If alternative practices are so good, why don't morefarmers use them? First, alternative systems often requiremore management time to organize; many aremixed crop-animal operations, with the animals providingboth a "market" for the soil-building crop and asupply of organic nutrients to further build the soil (42)(43). Second, conventional systems are commonlythought to out-yield alternative systems. Third, skepticsargue that alternative systems generate lower netreturns per hectare than conventional systems (44),mainly because crop rotations force farmers to leavepart of their land in a low-value "green manure" cropto restore the soil, and also because herbicides are amore effective and economical way to control weedsthan alternative techniques such as mechanical cultivationand crop rotations. But recent studies have shownthat net returns do not always suffer. (See The Economicsof Alternative Agriculture, below.) Finally, alternativesystems have an image problem: they are associatedwith traditional practices, such as crop rotation,whereas conventional agriculture is considered modernand scientific (45).Is alternative agriculture merely a matter of reducing,eliminating, or changing some inputs? Switching fromchemical fertilizers to animal manures is not invariablybetter environmentally because animal manuresthat are poorly stored, improperly applied, or overappliedcan also cause environmental problems (46).Other changes, such as switching from pesticides tomechanical weed control (which requires additionalimplements and fuel), may also involve environmentaltrade-offs (47).CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE ANDALTERNATIVE AGRICULTUREConventional agriculture has been a stunning productionsuccess over the past few decades. In the early1960s, for example, farmers in Guthrie County, Iowa,could barely produce enough maize (corn) to feedlocal cattle herds. Maize, the principal food stock forthe U.S. cattle industry and the U.S. farmers' best-payingcrop, took so much nitrogen out of the soil that itcould only be grown every other year. By 1963, fertilizersalesmen convinced farmers to replenish the nitrogenwith chemical fertilizers such as anhydrousammonia, which they said could allow them to growmaize every year. The chemical fertilizer worked:Guthrie County's maize production jumped 50 percentover an eight-year period (48).However, the impact of maize "monoculture" on thehealth of the soil was not well understood. Soils underintensive monoculture tend to lose organic matter andtheir ability to retain moisture, thus becoming moresusceptible to erosion and ultimately losing their fertilityand productivity (49). Growing the same crop yearafter year also allows the pests and diseases that attackthat crop to prosper (50). In 1967, maize stalks inGuthrie County began collapsing under an assaultfrom root worms. Local farmers solved the problemwith heavy doses of insecticides.The production success also had unwelcome economiceffects. By the mid-1980s, U.S. production hadcreated huge surpluses, leading to government policiesthat idled millions of hectares. In Guthrie County,25 percent of the land was idled. Environmental concernsalso began to mount: traces of pesticides werefound in drinking water and nitrates (a form of nitro-100World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 7gen) in farmers' watering troughs. Water supplies containinghigh levels of nitrate have been linked to methemoglobinemia(lack of oxygen in the blood) inchildren (51). The state of Iowa imposed a tax on fertilizers,with the proceeds used to encourage the reduceduse of chemicals. By the late 1980s, farmers in areaslike Guthrie County had begun to cut back on theiruse of chemical fertilizers (52).The Guthrie County experience mirrors the experienceof most industrialized countries, here limited tothe nations belonging to the Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development (OECD), includingNorth America, Western Europe, Australia/NewZealand, and Japan. Agricultural production in OECDnations increased by 20-30 percent over the past decade,except in Japan, where output has been roughlyconstant (53). The area of land devoted to agriculturehas declined about 1 percent since 1970, and the numberof farms has declined (54). Average farm size has increased,accompanied by increased specialization andthe substitution of machines and purchased inputs (fertilizersand pesticides) for labor and land. In Japan andto a lesser extent in Europe, farming is still relativelylabor-intensive, despite the increasing number of machinesused per square kilometer of arable land. Theadvent of machines has increased the amount of energyused by agriculture; for the OECD countries, totalenergy use per square kilometer rose 39 percent overthe 1970-88 period (55).OECD farmers have also relied on heavy doses of agriculturalchemicals. Fertilizer consumption continuedto rise slightly during most of the 1980s in Europe andJapan but may have leveled off for the industrializedcountries as a whole. The use of nitrogenous fertilizerintensified in the 1970s but stabilized in most OECDcountries in the 1980s (56). Pesticides are used intensivelyin OECD countries. Although data are scant, applicationrates of pesticides seem to have dropped(except for insecticides) during the 1980s (57). Decliningrates may be somewhat misleading, however, becausemany new pesticides have higher potencies thatrequire relatively lower application rates (58).Alternative ApproachesIn the 1970s and 1980s, a few farmers began taking adifferent approach. For example, at the 290-hectarecrop-livestock farm of Glen and Rex Spray in KnoxCounty, Ohio, no herbicides have been applied in over15 years and no lime or fertilizer has been purchasedsince 1971. Yet in the 1981-85 period, the Sprays hadyields of maize that exceeded the county average by 32percent. Soybeans were 40 percent above average;wheat, 5 percent; and oats, 22 percent (59).The Sprays and other farmers are achieving a synthesisof alternative farming practices. This synthesis mayvary from farm to farm, but it usually includes crop rotationsthat conserve resources; tillage practices thatconserve water and benefit soil health; legume cropsor animal manures that add nutrients to the soil and reducechemical inputs; and new ways to manage biologicalinteractions in the soil that reduce plant diseasesand increase yields. In combination, these practiceshelp to suppress plant diseases and pests and lead tomore efficient cycling of nutrients from the soil intoplants and back into the soil. (See Box 7.2.)These systems do not eliminate all use of chemicalfertilizers or pesticides, nor are they simply a return toold-fashioned practices. They incorporate modernfarm machinery, hybrid seeds, and the latest in plantcultivars, particularly legumes. Modern alternative systemsalso involve careful management of crop residuesand other organic materials (60). In addition, theyusually require more labor than conventional practices(61) and a greater knowledge of farm ecosystems.Higher labor costs are partially offset by lower inputcosts (62).Precisely characterizing a generic "sustainable" farmis difficult, because each farm ecosystem, as each fieldwithin a farm, has different requirements. There is norecipe for sustainable farming. It is also difficult to sayhow many farmers now use alternative methods. Lessthan 1 percent of total farmland is devoted to organicfarming (63), but a much greater number of farmers—in some cases, majorities or near-majorities—may beusing some alternative practices (64).PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVENTIONAL MODELOn-Farm ImpactsConventional agriculture can have a variety of destructiveimpacts on farms. The cost of these impacts isborne by the farmer. For example:• Conventional agricultural practices, such as deepplowing and removing crop residue, reduce theamount of organic matter in the soil. This in turn reducessoil fertility and rooting depth. Studies havefound that alternative techniques can dramaticallyalter the loss of organic matter: for example, switchingfrom conventional clearing to stubble-mulching,which leaves residues on the soil surface, can reduceorganic matter losses by as much as 50 percent over 25years (65). Some no-till or reduced-tillage methods arethought to require the use—often heavy use—of herbicides,but a recent study of maize production in theUnited States found no real difference in herbicide usebetween tillage systems (66).• Many conventional practices—growing shallowrootedcrops, using heavy machinery, or removing organicmatter from the soil—encourage soil compaction,which restricts root growth, water retention, andair exchange (67). This problem may affect as much ashalf the intensively cultivated row-crop and smallgraincropland in North America (68) (69). Soil compactioncan be reduced through reduced tillage, rotationwith grasses or other crops with fibrous root systems,and the use of crop residues and manures to increasesoil organic content (70).• Soil salinization, which is primarily caused by faultyirrigation, can lower crop yields and ultimately makeland unsuitable for cultivation. Salinity is estimated toaffect 1.2 million hectares of cultivated soils in Sas-WorW Resources 1992-93101

7 Food and AgricultureBox 7.2 Building Alternative Farming SystemsSome farmers have experimented with alternativetechniques to reduce their costs,others because of growing awareness ofthe on- and off-farm environmental damagecaused by conventional practices.They have developed a variety of alternativetechniques, the most promising ofwhich include crop rotation, improved nutrientmanagement, and alternative waysto control pests and weeds.ALTERNATIVE PLANTINGMETHODSCrop rotation—successive planting of differentcrops in the same field—has a widevariety of economic and environmentalbenefits. From an economic perspective,rotations usually increase yields of a principalgrain crop beyond yields achievedwith continuous cropping, although grossreturns per acre may decrease becausepart of the land is devoted to less valuableuses. Rotations also help improve thephysical characteristics of soil and providesignificant benefits in the control of weeds,insects, and diseases. Legumes in a rotationalso can help fix nitrogen in the soil,thus reducing the need for additional nitrogenfertilizers (l).Rotations that include deep-rooted cropssuch as alfalfa bring soil nutrients to thesurface for later use by shallow-rootedcrops. Rotations with hay, forage crops, orclosely seeded small-grain crops can reduceerosion, particularly when combinedwith contour plowing. Rotations that includerye (which contains a chemical thatsuppresses the growth of other plants) canreduce the need for herbicides (2).Many other innovative cultural techniquesshow promise, including systems ofstrip intercropping using two crops; undersowingwith a legume or other crop;mixtures of varieties or species to creategreater crop diversity; trap crops to attractpests away from the main crop; and doublerowcropping to facilitate weed control (3).A survey of crop rotation in the UnitedStates found that the practice is relativelycommon except for some crops in certainareas, such as cotton in several states inthe South. Fanners who plant maize commonlyalternate the crop with soybeans;for example, 38 percent of land planted tomaize in 1988 had grown soybeans in 1987and maize in 1986. There is relatively littlediversity in types of rotations, however (4).TILLAGE PRACTICESFarmers have adopted a wide range of alternativetillage practices in the past fewdecades. It is estimated that some sort ofconservation tillage is used on about 30million hectares of farmland in the UnitedStates (5). Nearly all these practices helpprevent soil erosion; and although someare thought to increase the need for herbicides,recent studies have challenged thisbelief (6).Ridge tillage—building seedbeds upinto ridges—is a particularly promising alternativesystem that overcomes some ofthe weed control problems of unfilled systems.During spring planting, ridge-tillplanters remove a layer of soil from thetop of the ridge. This provides a relativelydry, warm seedbed that facilitates cropgermination; weed germination is reducedbecause weed seeds are disturbed only onthe top of the ridge. Soil erosion is slowedbecause the soil and crop residues betweenthe ridges are not disturbed (7).Many other alternatives to traditionaldeep plowing tend to reduce the numberof cultivations. The alternatives includeshallow plowing to a depth of 15 centimetersor less; chisel plowing, which does notinvert the soil; deep subsoiling, which liftsthe soil but does not invert it; shallow-tinesystems, which loosen the soil; harrowingto create a seed bed; and no-till (or "onepass")systems. All of these alternativeshelp reduce energy inputs, prevent soil erosion,facilitate pest and disease control, andcreate a more natural soil structure withbetter drainage and water retention (8).PLANT NUTRIENTSLegumes—nitrogen-fixing plants such asalfalfa, chickpeas, and various clovers—can add nitrogen to the soil for such cropskatchewan and 370,000 hectares in central and southernAlberta (71). In western Australia, some 440,000hectares of land—mostly in the rain-fed wheat belt—are now salinized, a 500 percent increase since the firstsurvey in 1955 (72).• Row-crop monocultures have aggravated soil erosionin many agricultural areas. Declines in soil productivitycaused by erosion are difficult to measure becausemany other factors—management practices, new technology,new plant varieties, weather, and use of fertilizersand pesticides—also can affect crop yields (73).Nevertheless, some studies suggest that productivitylosses are severe in many areas. For example, a sixyearstudy of crop productivity in three Indiana countiesfound that corn yields were reduced 15 percentand soybean yields 24 percent on severely erodedsites, compared with slightly eroded sites (74). Of theroughly 171 million hectares of U.S. farmland, about21.1 million hectares—12.3 percent—are considered sohighly erodible that control measures generally requireconversion to permanent vegetative cover; another28.6 million hectares—16.7 percent—areclassified as erosion-prone but can remain in productionwith practices such as conservation tillage (75). InEurope, it has been estimated that as much as 14 percentof the total land area is threatened by moderate toextreme human-induced water and wind erosion (76).The problem is particularly severe in southern Mediterraneanareas such as Portugal, where it is estimatedthat more than 20 percent of the current agriculturalarea is highly erodible (77). Erosion appears to be widespreadin England and Wales and has increased overthe past 15 years (78). In Bavaria, erosion exceeds tolerablelevels on more than 50 percent of agriculturalland (79).• Pesticides have both on- and off-farm impacts. Themost worrisome problem is the possible health threatto farm workers (80). Some consumers have expressedconcern about pesticide residues in food (81). In addition,pests can develop resistance to pesticides—some504 insect and mite species are known to be resistantto some pesticides (82)—necessitating larger doses andmore frequent applications or a switch to other pesticides.The chemical suppression of one pest also mayallow other pests to become problems (83).• Excess nitrogen fertilizer runs off into surface waterand leaches into groundwater, possibly contaminatingfarm wells, as well as water downstream. The problemhas been particularly acute on crop-livestock operations,where farmers spread large quantities of animalmanures but frequently continue to apply synthetic fertilizersat the same rate that would be required withoutmanure. A survey of Iowa farmers, for example,found that about half of all farms that spread animal102World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 7as corn and wheat. Under proper management,soybeans also can add nitrogen tothe soil. The amount of nitrogen providedby leguminous hays—which are generallyprofitable only where there is a local haymarket or on livestock farms—depends onmanagement practices (9).Animal manures can provide significantamounts of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium,and other nutrients. Manures oftenare used inefficiently, however, because ofpoor storage, hauling, and spreading practicesthat can reduce the nitrogen content ofmanure by a substantial amount (10).Other inputs that could substitute for inorganicchemicals include sewage sludge,composted domestic lawn clippings andleaf material, paper pulp wastes, potato processingwastes, brewery wastes, domesticorganic wastes (li). Experience with sewagesludge has been mixed in Europe, wheremuch of the sludge comes from urbansources and contains significant concentrationsof heavy metals (12). Another relativelysimple improvement involves more precisesoil testing to determine which nutrients thesoil actually needs. This may enable farmersto reduce fertilizer applications without affectingyields 03).INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENTMany management approaches offer opportunitiesto reduce pesticide use: diseaseforecasting methods to minimize use; betterformulation and placement of chemicals,so that smaller amounts are effective;alternative farming systems—using croprotations or modifying the timing of cropsowing, for example—to avoid or minimizepest attacks 04); and repeated fieldvisits to determine whether pests havereached dangerous levels that justifyspraying.In addition, a variety of pest control strategiesare increasing in importance: using biologicalinsecticides based on insectpathogens; releasing or encouraging parasitesand predators of pests; using pheromones,other allelochemicals, or repellentsto keep pests away from crops; releasingsterile male insects to limit reproduction ofpests; planting crop varieties that are resistantto pest attack or that produce toxins asa result of genetic engineering; and planting"trap" crops to draw pests away fromthe principal crop 05).References and Notes1. James F. Power, "Legumes: Their PotentialRole in Agricultural Production," AmericanJournal of Alternative Agriculture, Vol. 2, No.2 (1987), pp. 70-71.2. Bette Hileman, "Alternative Agriculture,"Chemical and Engineering News (March 5,1990), p. 33.3. Clive A. Edwards, "The Importance of Integrationin Sustainable Agricultural Systems,"in Sustainable Agricultural Systems,10.11.12.13.14.15.Box 7.2Clive A. Edwards, Rattan Lai, Patrick Madden,et al., eds. (Soil and Water ConservationSociety, Ankeny, Iowa, 1990), p. 257.Stan Daberkow and Mohinder Gill, "CommonCrop Rotations Among Major FieldCrops," in Agricultural Resources: Inputs Situationand Outlook Report (U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, Economic Research Service,Washington, D.C., 1989), p. 34.Carmen Sandretto, Economic Research Service,U.S. Department of Agriculture,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personal communication).Len Bull, "Pesticide Use by Tillage System,1988 and 1989 Corn Production," in AgriculturalResources: Inputs Situation and OutlookReport (Economic Research Service,U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington,D.C., 1991), p. 35.National Research Council, Alternative Agriculture(National Academy Press, Washington,D.C., 1989), p. 162.Op. cit. 3, p. 256.Op. cit. 1, pp. 69,72.Edwin Young, Bradley M. Crowder, JamesS. Shortle, et al., "Nutrient Management onDairy Farms in Southeastern Pennsylvania,"Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,Vol. 40, No. 5 (1985), p. 443.Op. cit. 3, p. 258.David Baldock, Senior Research Fellow, Instituteof European Environmental Policy,London, 1991 (personal communication).Op. cit. 2, p. 33.Op. cit. 3, p. 255.Op. cit. 3, p. 255.manure did not make any adjustment in chemical fertilizerapplications (84). Storage and disposal of animalmanures has also been a widespread problem in Europe.In the Federal Republic of Germany, the annualnitrogen surplus on farmed land has grown tenfold,from less than 10 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) in the1950s to more than 100 kg/ha in the late 1980s (85).Off-Farm ImpactsThe off-farm impacts of conventional agriculture areborne by nearby residents and/or taxpayers. They appearto be even more costly than on-farm impacts (86).The most significant impacts are related to water quality,including runoff of fertilizers, pesticides, and soilsinto surface waters and leaching of fertilizers and pesticidesinto groundwater (87).PesticidesIn the United States, various studies have found a totalof 39 pesticides in groundwater in 34 states. A nationalsurvey by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencyfound pesticides in about 10 percent of all communitywater systems and estimated that almost 1 percent containpotentially unsafe concentrations. The survey alsofound unsafe concentrations in many rural domesticwells—less than 1 percent, but affecting an estimated60,900 wells (88). Percentages are higher in some areas:surveys in Minnesota and Iowa suggest that more than20-30 percent of community wells and 30-60 percentof private wells may contain pesticide residues (89).Pesticide runoff in surface waters may also pose a significantthreat to drinking water supplies. Studieshave found that conventional water supply treatmenttechnologies are generally unable to remove pesticideresidues (90).The impact of certain pesticides on wildlife has beenwidely documented. High levels of DDT led to dramaticdeclines in predatory bird populations in theUnited States in the 1960s and 1970s. The banning ofmost organochlorines (DDT, dieldrin, aldrin, etc.) hasbeen an important factor in the recovery of these birdpopulations.FertilizersOverfertilization has had a major impact on waterquality, primarily in the form of nitrate pollution fromnitrogen fertilizers. It is estimated that 25 percent ofthe population in the European Community (EC) isdrinking water with a nitrate level greater than theEC's recommended maximum level of 25 milligramsper liter (mg/1) (91).Levels of nitrate contamination are generally risingin Europe (92). In Bavaria, for example, the number ofcatchments exceeding the maximum permitted ECWorld Resources 1992-93103

7 Food and Agriculturestandard of 50 mg/1 increased by more than 30 percentwithin two years (1985-87). In Baden-Wiirttemberg,the percentage of water exceeding the 25 mg/1 targetlevel increased from 17 percent in 1977 to 28 percent in1985 (93). Rising concentrations of nitrates have beenfound in groundwater in parts of France, the Netherlands,and in the United Kingdom (94).The runoff of nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizersalso plays a major role in increasing nutrient levels inestuaries. A study of 78 estuaries in the United Statesfound that agricultural runoff contributed, on average,24 percent of all nutrient loading and 40 percent oftotal sediment (95). In some rural areas of Europe, agriculturecauses 70 to 85 percent of the nitrogen loadingand more than 30 percent of the phosphorus loadingof surface waters (96). (See Chapter 11, "Freshwater,"and Chapter 12, "Oceans and Coasts.")Soil ErosionIt is estimated that approximately 880 million metrictons of eroded agricultural soils annually run into reservoirsin the United States, reducing their flood-controlbenefits, clogging waterways, and increasing theoperating costs of water-treatment facilities (97). Suspendedsediments decrease the amount of light availablefor submerged aquatic vegetation, which canharm fish species that depend on this vegetation forbreeding and food (98). The cost of soil erosion is alsosubstantial: in the United States, damage to the rest ofthe economy from waterborne sediments may exceed$10 billion per year. About 36 percent of this amount isfrom soil eroded from cropland (99).Air PollutionAgriculture also produces a variety of air pollutants.For example, fertilized soils emit 2-10 times as muchnitrous oxide as unfertilized soils and pastures, withthe higher emissions in temperate countries caused byammonia and urea compounds. In the industrializedcountries, livestock and fertilizers account for 80—90percent of ammonia emissions, which in Europe mayhave doubled over the last 30 years (100). It is estimatedthat 20 percent of the acid deposition in the Netherlandscurrently comes from the ammonia released byanimal manure (101). The burning of agriculturalwastes also emits significant concentrations of carbonmonoxide and dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and othergases. Finally, wet rice agriculture and livestock aresignificant sources of methane emissions (102).Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation ofLandscapesConversion of wildlife habitat and rural landscapes toagricultural use has been extensive in recent decades.Since 1945, it is estimated that England and Waleshave lost 98 percent of old pasture, 70 percent of originalpeat lands, 58 percent of ancient forest, and 40 percentof heathland. Modern agriculture also has playeda major role in the destruction of hedgerows, whichprovide habitat for wildlife (103).The loss of habitat, combined with rising levels oftoxic pesticides in surface waters and soils, has had adevastating effect on wildlife and biodiversity. In theFederal Republic of Germany, it is estimated 14 of 933plant species disappeared between 1870 and 1950. Inthe following three decades, 130 plants became extinct,50 more were threatened with extinction, 74 were seriouslyendangered, and 108 were in decline, primarilybecause of agricultural activities (104).Also of concern in Europe is the loss in visual amenitiescaused by changes in the rural landscape, such asthe elimination of hedgerows and the disappearanceof grasslands (105). Many Europeans consider suchscenery an important part of Europe's "cultural landscape."AGRICULTURAL POLICIES: CREATING A NEWENVIRONMENTThe industrialized economies have designed agriculturalpolicies that provide adequate food supplies andmaintain farmers' incomes. To do that, they have subsidizedfarmers at the expense of taxpayers (106). Thesepolicies have provided strong incentives for farmers toproduce as much as possible, maximize their use of fertilizersand pesticides, and otherwise modify theirfarming practices to take advantage of distorted pricestructures. All of these effects have had serious environmentalconsequences (107).These policies also created barriers for any transitionto alternative practices; new policies developed in thelast few years have tried to reduce those barriers. Asshown in Figure 7.8, Japan has had the highest producersubsidies for agricultural products, largely becauseof high subsidies for rice (108). In North Americaand the EC, subsidies peaked in 1986 and have declinedthrough 1989, although provisional estimatesshow increases in 1990.U.S. Farm LawPolicies designed to promote production and stabilizefarm incomes may also present formidable barriers tofarmers who wish to move towards more sustainablepractices. Under U.S. farm law, for example, farm programpayments are determined by three factors: cropacreage bases, crop yields, and target prices. In thecase of maize (corn), the crop acreage base is determinedby the number of acres planted in maize duringa given five-year base period. Similarly, crop yields aredetermined by the average number of bushels producedper acre on a farm in a five-year period before1986. And eligible farmers are guaranteed a specifictarget price; if market prices fall below the target price,farmers are paid the difference.To maximize their payments, U.S. farmers needlarge crop bases and high yields. The system has penalizedfarmers for shifting acreage out of the supportedcrop, because their acreage bases and government paymentsare lowered over the next five years. The systemhas also worked against yield-reducing practices suchas long-term rotations or reduced chemical inputs (109).The 1990 farm law provides some flexibility by allow-104World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 7ing farmers to plant other crops on up to 25 percent oftheir acreage without losing their acreage bases for thecalculation of future support payments (lio).Europe's CAPThe European Community's Common AgriculturalPolicy (CAP) is a complex system that uses prices toregulate agricultural markets and support agriculturalincomes. One of the CAP's guiding principles is marketunity, which bars any restrictions on trade betweenmember states and requires a uniform agriculturalprice for the whole community. Each spring, theseguaranteed prices to farmers are fixed by the EC's 12agricultural ministers. The guaranteed prices have generallybeen well above world market prices.To protect against cheap imports, EC countries imposetariffs on non-EC products, ensuring their sale atthe guaranteed price. The EC also uses direct marketpurchases (to maintain prices) or payments to farmers(to make up the difference between market and guaranteedprice). In cases where there are large surpluses(sugar, milk, or wine), production quotas for individualfarms are increasingly common (Hi). To discourageoverproduction, "co-responsibility" paymentsrequire producers themselves to finance part or all ofthe disposal of excess supplies (112).POLICY IMPACTS: DISTORTED PRICESTRUCTURESPrice distortions have significantly altered decisionsby farmers in industrialized countries. In the EuropeanCommunity, for example, price policies have encouragedproduction of maize and sugar beets and discouragedproduction of root crops and pulses. High protectedprices for milk and low world market prices forsoya (an important input in milk production) havebeen an enormous incentive for milk production in theEC. This distortion has had regional impacts, shiftingmilk production from Europe's upland grasslands tothe coastal regions of northwest Europe, where importedfeed is available.A similar shift has occurred in pig and poultry production,where farmers have substituted low-pricedfeed substitutes—tapioca from Thailand, or corn glutenfrom the United States, for example—for protectedand high-priced feed cereals from EC sources. Morethan 15 percent of all dairy cows and 25 percent of allpigs are now concentrated on 4 percent of the EC's agriculturalarea in the Netherlands, Flanders, and thewestern part of Lower Saxony. Although mixed croplivestocksystems can be the basis for environmentallysustainable farming, distorted price structures havetended to push agriculture in the other direction, towardspecialization (113).Subsidized InputsMany governments subsidize agricultural inputs. Awell-known example is the subsidization of irrigationwater in the western United States. Subsidized waterprices have encouraged the expansion of irrigated productionand such relatively low-value crops as alfalfa.Figure 7.8 Producer Subsidy Equivalentsin Industrialized Countries, 1979-90(percent of gross receipts)Japan - - EC — Canada — USAAustralia19791980 1981 1982 198319841985 19861987198819891990Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),"Agricultural Policies, Markets and Trade Monitoring Outlook" (OECD, Paris,1988,1990,1991).Notes:a. Producer Subsidy Equivalents = producer subsidies divided by the valueof production plus direct payments, b. 1979-85 figures for the EuropeanCommunity (EC) refer to the EC-10; 1986-90 to the EC-12. c. 1989 = estimated;1990 = provisional.This in turn has contributed to a decline in groundwateraquifer levels and the accelerated accumulation ofsalts and toxic minerals in agricultural lands and adjacentbodies of water (114).NEW POLICY OPTIONSIndustrial nations are trying a variety of new policiesto encourage the transition to alternative farm practicesthat will reduce on-and off-farm environmentaldamages. Some countries are changing old programs,such as reducing or removing subsidies for inputs.Other countries are trying new programs, includingland conservation programs, management agreements,taxes and fees on inputs, regulations, and subsidiesto support conversion to sustainable practices.Although the OECD countries have agreed to followthe "polluter-pays" principle, meaning that the costsof pollution control or prevention should be borne bythe polluter (115), this principle is infrequently appliedto agriculture. In one of the few examples, the Dutchgovernment has imposed a tax on the production of excessmanure and requires farmers to dispose of all surplusesat their own expense (116).Reducing Input SubsidiesAustria, Australia, Finland, Portugal, New Zealand,and Sweden have all found that increasing the cost ofinputs is an effective way to reduce their use, reduceon- and off-farm pollution, and internalize some of theoff-site costs of agricultural pollution. In Australia, forexample, the government of New South Wales has substantiallyincreased its water charges, leading to an almostimmediate adoption of more efficient farmingpractices and a decline in soil salinity levels (117).World Resources 1992-93105

7 Food and AgricultureLand Conservation ProgramsOne of the most ambitious land retirement programsestablished to date is the Conservation Reserve Program(CRP) in the United States, which was created bythe Food Security Act of 1985. The program pays farmersto idle highly erodible land for 10 years; about 14million hectares were enrolled as of 1991 (118). U.S.farm programs also link eligibility for federal benefitsto compliance with conservation programs. For highlyerodible croplands not covered by the CRP, farmersmust implement an approved conservation plan by1995 or lose eligibility for nearly all federal programbenefits. Other provisions of the 1985 law deny eligibilityfor farm program payments to any farmers whoplow previously uncultivated, highly erodible land ordrain wetlands for cultivation. The effectiveness ofthese programs is greatest in periods of low commodityprices, when farmers rely most on government benefits(119).Other governments have taken steps to protect environmentallyfragile lands. In 1980, the government ofSouth Australia became concerned about rapidly dwindlingareas of wildlife habitat and native vegetation,which farmers were buying and clearing for crops orpasture. The government created a voluntary heritageagreement (conservation easement) program and then,in 1983, banned all future clearing without a permit.After a period of political and legal negotiations, theprogram now requires farmers to obtain a permit beforeclearing any native vegetation. If the permit is refused,farmers can be compensated for any reductionin the market value of their farm if they agree to attacha heritage agreement to the farm title, protecting thenative vegetation in perpetuity. They can also receivefinancial aid for the cost of constructing fences or otherimprovements to protect vegetation. State and localland and other taxes may be waived on areas subjectto a heritage agreement (120).Management AgreementsIn 1985, the European Community approved a directivefor funding management agreements to protectenvironmentally sensitive areas (ESAs). The ESA designation,which has been used in the United Kingdom,the Federal Republic of Germany, France, and theNetherlands (121), permits agriculture ministries to payfarmers to retain traditional agricultural practices inorder to maintain biologically important habitats andtraditional landscapes (122). The United Kingdom hasidentified ESAs where farmers can be paid to maintainor improve the environment by, for example, deferringhay-making, using less fertilizer, or leaving their fieldsunplowed. Unlike the heritage agreements in SouthAustralia, which are effective in perpetuity, most ofthe European management agreements run for fiveyears (123).The EC's 1975 Less-Favoured Areas Directive waspartly intended to maintain agricultural activity inhilly and remote areas and to preserve the landscapeand environment (124). For example, livestock farmersin the mountainous areas of Austria are paid to maintaintraditional herb-rich meadows, and Swiss farmersare paid to cut hay on mountain slopes to reduce therisk of snow avalanche (125). Many other such managementagreement programs are underway:• The U.K. Countryside Commission provides premiumsto farmers who implement environmentally preferredmanagement practices on set-aside lands.• In almost all German townships, farmers can receivepayments to protect native plants and animals by leavingsome meadows uncropped and avoiding the applicationof certain fertilizers and pesticides on grasslandand on the edges of fields (126). Most such programs aremanaged by the state-level "Lander" governments (127).• Sweden and some other European countries provideinvestment aid to farmers who upgrade manure storagefacilities (128).• Portugal, as part of its program to reduce soil erosion,offers subsidies and loans to farmers for reforestationand the establishment of permanent pastures (129).Taxes, Fees, and Tax IncentivesSome countries are experimenting with the use oftaxes and fees to encourage more efficient use of fertilizersand pesticides, with tax incentives to encouragesustainable practices. Sweden, Finland, and Austria alluse taxes and input levies, with some of the revenuegoing to reduce pesticide and fertilizer use as well assupporting research and extension programs. Sweden,for example, imposes a 20 percent price-regulationcharge and a 5 percent input tax on both the value ofnitrogen and phosphorus in fertilizers and the value ofeach unit of active ingredient in pesticides (130). TheNetherlands has introduced a modest levy on manufacturedfeed to help pay for research and advisory servicesdealing with nitrate and phosphate pollutionfrom intensive animal husbandry (131).Tax reduction incentives also are employed in a fewcountries. Australia, for example, abolished tax advantagesfor clearing land and now provides them forplanting trees. Australia also allows accelerated depreciationand tax write-offs for investments in erosionprevention and water conservation (132).Strengthening RegulationsIn nearly all OECD countries, new pesticides and herbicidesmust undergo extensive government testingand evaluation before they can be sold. Some countriesare also retesting older pesticides to see whether theymeet current standards. Most countries also reservethe right to withdraw pesticide licenses based on newdata (133). By 1993, for example, Denmark may removefrom the market as many as one fourth of current pesticides,for a variety of reasons, including their toxicity(134). In 1985, Sweden announced that it intended to reducethe use of pesticides in agriculture by 50 percentover five years, using measures such as stricter reviewand testing procedures, alternative control methods,training courses for all farmers, and a ban on aerial application(135). Denmark has a similar program thatcalls for a 25 percent reduction in total pesticide applicationby 1990, and a 50 percent reduction by 1997,106World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 7compared with average pesticide use in 1981-85. Theintention of the Danish law is to reduce both theamount of active ingredients and the number of treatments(136). Some countries have also devised standardslimiting the cadmium content of manufacturedfertilizers (137).In several European countries, the growth of intensiveanimal husbandry has created a severe excess ofanimal manures that are leaching nitrates into groundwaterand surface waters (138). The problem has ledmany governments to impose restrictions on manures.To reduce runoff into surface waters, Denmark prohibitsthe spreading of manure and sludge on frozenground (139). The Netherlands and Denmark now limitthe amount of manure that may be spread per hectare,although the controls are proving difficult to enforce(140). Denmark also requires farmers to have adequatestorage capacity for animal manure; requires fertilizermanagement plans for farms over 10 hectares; and requiresthat a 55 percent "green cover" be planted in autumnon bare fallow lands to reduce nitrate leaching.Green cover includes winter cereals and oilseeds,which can provide some income for farmers (141).In Laholm, Sweden, nitrate pollution of groundwaterbecame so serious in 1975 that the government restrictedfertilizer applications around the recharge areaof a municipal well to 100 kilograms of nitrate per hectareper year. Within two years, nitrate concentrationsin the well fell from 80 to 40 milligrams per liter (142).Many other European countries, including Germanyand the Netherlands, also have policies that protectgroundwater recharge zones (143).Subsidizing ConversionSome European governments subsidize the conversionto organic farming, both as a means to alleviate environmentalproblems and as a way to reduce agriculturalsurpluses. The rationale for the subsidy is that,during their transition to organic farming, farmersmust usually make some capital investments, yet theyare unable to charge premium prices for their produceuntil it is certifiably organic, which usually takes twoto five years. Yields also may decline, especially in thefirst few years (144).To help farmers get through this transition period,countries such as Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany,Norway, Sweden, and some cantons in Switzerlandoffer conversion subsidies, usually for threeyears. The Swedish subsidy program seems to havemade a difference in farmers' decisions: 1,000 farmerssigned up when state aid was available in 1989, butonly 85 farmers started converting without aid the followingyear (145). Studies in the United Kindgom indicatethat conversion to more sustainable farmingsystems could be cheaper than set-aside programs incontrolling cereal surpluses (146).THE ECONOMICS OF ALTERNATIVEAGRICULTUREThe question of the profitability of alternative farmingsystems remains unsettled. Some European expertshave been less optimistic than their U.S. counterpartsabout the ability of alternative systems to maintainyields that are comparable to conventional systems(147). The difference may be partly due to Europeans'tendency to compare conventional systems with organicalone, rather than with all alternative systems.A comparison of the economic performance of organicand conventional farming in Denmark found that averagecrop yields on organic farms were about 40 percentbelow the conventional average, and that laborrequirements for organic farms exceeded the conventionalaverage by at least one third. The cost savingson fertilizer and chemicals covered only about 40 percentof the extra costs incurred by lower yields andhigher labor requirements. Gross profits were comparable,however, largely because of significantly higherprices for organic produce (148).Low-input alternative systems, by contrast, haveachieved yields equivalent to conventional systems.A five-year experiment in Pennsylvania found thatyields in low-input systems were 75 percent of conventionalin the initial years but were comparable to conventionalby the fifth year. The study found that thetransition was helped by starting with crops that fixtheir own nitrogen or have low nitrogen requirementsand compete well with weeds (149).Accounting for Resources in Assessing PoliciesA World Resources Institute analysis of alternativeproduction systems in Pennsylvania and Nebraska attemptedto assess the impact of alternative domesticand international farm policies on farmers' decisionsand to account for soil erosion in comparing the economicsof conventional and alternative systems. InPennsylvania, where on- and off-site resource costs arehigh, organic farming rotations were found to be botheconomically and environmentally superior to conventionalmaize and maize-soybean production. Practicesthat conserve resources cut production costs by 25 percent,eliminated chemical fertilizer and pesticide use,reduced soil erosion by more than 50 percent, and increasedyields after the five-year transition from conventionalsystems (150). By reducing soil erosion andimproving water retention, these practices reduced offsitedamages by more than $74 per hectare of farmland.They also forestalled a 30-year income loss (witha present value of $306 per hectare) by building soilproductivity by 2 percent and preventing a 17 percentdecline in soil productivity. When on- and off-farmsoil and surface water resource costs were included,resource-conserving farming outperformed conventionalapproaches by almost a two-to-one margin innet economic value per hectare (including off-site environmentalcosts) (151).In Nebraska, where flat land reduces the costs of erosion,alternative practices were also found to be environmentallysuperior to the predominant, high-input,maize-bean rotation. Alternative treatments (one usinginorganic fertilizer but no herbicides, the other substitutingmanure and mechanical weed control foragrochemicals) proved to be slightly less competitiveWorld Resources 1992-93107

7 Food and Agriculturefinancially than conventional treatment using inorganicfertilizers and herbicides. However, the studyalso found that an organic maize-bean rotation reducedsoil erosion by 20 percent compared with thechemical-intensive maize-bean rotation, and by 50 percentcompared with continuous maize (152). The underlyingfinancial calculations assumed no pricepremiums for produce grown in alternative systems,reasoning that widespread adoption of such systemswould cause premiums to diminish or disappear altogether.In comparing various policy options, the studyfound that the best option for U.S. farmers is an internationalpolicy that "decouples" commodity productionand government income supports—that is, endingprogram constraints (thereby forcing farmers to usetheir resources more efficiently) and opening markets(thereby reducing supplies from high-cost producers,driving up world prices, and sending farmers undistortedmarket signals). Under all the different rotationsand treatments in both case studies, net farm operatingincomes improved under decoupling (153).Another policy option—a 25 percent agrochemicaltax—significantly discourages chemical use within anycropping system. In the Nebraska case, the studyfound that a 12 percent pesticide and fertilizer taxwould eliminate any difference in net farm income betweenthe chemical-intensive and organic maize-beanrotation (154).Reforming the CAPMultilateral decoupling may be a desirable option forU.S. farmers, but it might be less attractive financiallyfor relatively high-cost producers in the EC nations.One study that simulated the impact of abolishing ECprice supports estimated that in Germany, outputwould drop by 5.75 percent, employment by 11.5 percent,and exports by 86.5 percent. These losses in agriculture,however, would be more than offset by gainsin other economic sectors (155).Lower prices would probably have the greatest impacton small farms with low incomes in less productivefarming areas. Some think that abandoning thesefarms would be desirable, because the lands would revertto natural habitat; others think it best to preservethese farms and encourage forms of farm managementthat also protect the environment. The best solution,according to one assessment, may be to reduce pricesupports incrementally over a longer period, use taxesto reduce consumption of chemical inputs, and encouragemanagement agreements as a form of direct paymentto farmers to protect the environment (156).FUTURE DIRECTIONSCurrent farm policies in industrialized countries havecreated incentives for farmers to use environmentallydamaging practices and, in many cases, penalizedfarmers for switching to more sustainable practices.Despite these disincentives, however, many farmersare finding it profitable to develop and invest in alternativesystems. Removing price supports and otherpolicy distortions could encourage this transition; policiesthat provide investment capital or otherwise reducethe risk for farmers could accelerate thetransition.Removing counterproductive policies may not adequatelycontrol off-site impacts, however. To controlthese impacts, governments could return the cost ofoff-site damages to the farm sector by imposing agrochemicaltaxes (157). Alternatively, they could providetax incentives for sustainable practices, strengthen regulations,or pay farmers directly to adopt sustainablepractices or retire land (158). Farmers, who work in aworld of profit and loss, have not been forced to takeadequate account of the real costs of environmentaldegradation. The economic attractiveness of sustainablepractices becomes more apparent when these newaccounting approaches are incorporated.The context of the debate over sustainable agriculturemust also encompass the food demands of a growingworld population. Devising sustainable practicesthat are both highly productive and profitable mayprove to be the challenge for agriculture in the industrialcountries in the coming decades. And it also suggeststhat developing countries, in their search forways to increase food production, will have models toconsider other than conventional high-input farming—models that, in the long run, may provide their growingpopulations with a more sustainable food supply.The Food and Agriculture chapter was written by World ResourcesSenior Editor Robert Livernash.References and Notes1. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA),Global Food Assessment: Situation and OutlookReport (Economic Research Service, USDA,Washington, D.C., November 1990), p. 9.2. Bread for the World Institute on Hungerand Development, Hunger 1990: A Report onthe State of World Hunger (Bread for theWorld Institute on Hunger and Development,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 7.3. U.S. Agency for International Development,FEWS Bulletin, No. 4 (June 3,1990), p. 1.4. Op. cit. 1, p. 4.5. Leonardo A. Paulino, "World Food Trendsand Projections," paper prepared for theBIFAD Task Force on Development Assistanceand Cooperation (International FoodPolicy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.,December 1990), pp. 3-4.6. Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), Agrostat PC, datadiskette (FAO, Rome, 1991).7. United Nations Environmental Programme(UNEP), Environmental Data Report, 3d edition,prepared for UNEP by the GEMS Monitoringand Assessment Research Centre in10.collaboration with the World Resources Instituteand the U.K. Department of the Environment(Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1991),p. 143, and Table 3.9, pp. 176-179Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), Fishery Statistics:Catches and Landings, Vol. 68 (1989), p. 95,and unpublished data.Op. cit. 7, p. 146.Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), FAO Quarterly Bulletinof Statistics, Vol. 3 (FAO, Rome, 1990),p. 31.108World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 711. Wilfrido Cruz and Christopher Gibbs,"Resource Policy Reform in the Context ofPopulation Pressure: The Philippines andNepal," paper presented at the joint annualmeeting of the American Agricultural EconomicsAssociation and the Association ofEnvironmental and Resource Economists,Vancouver, British Columbia, 1990, p. 4.12. Ibid., pp. 3-6.13. International Soil Reference and InformationCentre (ISRIC), "Global Assessment ofSoil Degradation 'GLASOD'," draft report(ISRIC, Wageningen, Netherlands, 1991),p. 6, Table 7.14. P.K. Joshi and Dayanatha Jha, "EnvironmentalExternalities in Surface Irrigation Systemsin India," in Environmental Aspects ofAgricultural Development (International FoodPolicy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.,1990), pp. 3-4.15. World Health Organization (WHO), PublicHealth Impact of Pesticides Used in Agriculture(WHO, Geneva, 1990), p. 86.16. Op. dt. 7, p. 146.17. Enzo R. Grilli and Maw Cheng Yang, "PrimaryCommodity Prices, ManufacturedGoods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of DevelopingCountries: What the Long RunShows," The World Bank Economic Review,Vol. 2, No. 1(1988), pp. 11,18.18. Thomas W. Hertel, "Agricultural Trade Liberalizationand the Developing Countries: ASurvey of the Models," in Agricultural TradeLiberalization: Implications for DevelopingCountries, Ian Goldin and Odin Knudsen,eds. (Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development, Paris, and TheWorld Bank, Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 19.19. Op. tit. 17, pp. 24-25.20. Mark W. Rosegrant and Prabhu L. Pingali,"Sustaining Rice Productivity Growth inAsia: A Policy Perspective" (InternationalFood Policy Research Institute, Washington,D.C., January 1991), pp. 30-34, Table 3, andFigures 2 and 3.21. Ibid., pp. 3-4.22. Michael Lipton, "Commentary: AgriculturalDevelopment and World Bank Lending," inIFPR1 Report, Vol. 12, No. 4 (1990), p. 1.23. Fred H. Sanderson, "Overview," in AgriculturalProtectionism in the Industrialized World,Fred H. Sanderson, ed. (Resources for theFuture, Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 6.24. Ian Goldin and Odin Knudsen, "The Implicationsof Agricultural Trade Liberalizationfor Developing Countries," inAgricultural Trade Liberalization: Implicationsfor Developing Countries (Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development,Paris, and The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1990), pp. 477-478.25. Op. tit.18, p. 22.26. Nurul Islam, "Nontraditional Exports of DevelopingCountries: The Case of HorticulturalExports," in The GATT, Agriculture,and the Developing Countries, Nurul Islamand Alberto Valdes, eds. (InternationalFood Policy Research Institute, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. 22.27. Kym Anderson, "Policy Implications ofModel Results," in Agricultural Trade Liberalization:Implications for Developing Countries,Ian Goldin and Odin Knudsen, eds. (Organisationfor Economic Co-operation andDevelopment, Paris, and The World Bank,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 461.28. Op. tit. 18, pp. 28-29.29. Op. tit.24, p. 479.30. Panos Konandreas and Richard J. Perkins,"Some Implications of Trade Liberalizationin Cereals for Low-Income Food DeficitCountries," in Agricultural Trade Liberalization:Implications for Developing Countries, IanGoldin and Odin Knudsen, eds. (Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development,Paris, and The World Bank,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 468.31. Op. tit. 18, pp. 27-28.32. Op. tit. 24, pp. 475,479.33. John Mellor, Research Fellow, InternationalFood Policy Research Institute, Washington,D.C., 1991 (personal communication).34. Carl Mabbs-Zeno and Barry Krissoff, "TropicalBeverages in GATT," in AgriculturalTrade Liberalization: Implications for DevelopingCountries, Ian Goldin and Odin Knudsen,eds. (Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development, Paris, andThe World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1990),pp. 188-191.35. National Research Council, Alternative Agriculture(National Academy Press, Washington,D.C., 1989), p. 27.36. Paul Faeth, Robert Repetto, Kim Kroll, et al.,Paying the Farm Bill: U.S. Agricultural Policyand the Transition to Sustainable Agriculture(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1991), p. 5.37. Nicolas Lampkin, Development Director,Aberystwyth Centre for Organic Husbandryand Agroecology, University Collegeof Wales, Aberystwyth, 1991 (personalcommunication).38. Nicolas Lampkin, "Organic Farming andAgricultural Policy in Europe," paper presentedat the Conference on Sustainable Agricultureand Agricultural Policy, QuebecMinistry of Agriculture, Fisheries, andFood, Quebec City, November, 1990, p. 2.39. Chuck Hassebrook, "Developing a SociallySustainable Agriculture" American Journal ofAlternative Agriculture, Vol. 5, No. 2 (1990),p. 50.40. Katsu Murayama, "Beyond Farming Methodologyor Food Safety: Farmer-ConsumerCo-Partnerships in Japan," Soil and Health,No. 220, (December 1990), pp. 17-21.41. David Baldock, Senior Research Fellow, Institutefor European Environmental Policy,London, 1991 (personal communication).42. Pierre Crosson and Leonard Gianessi, "WhyDo So Few Farmers Adopt Alternative AgriculturalPractices?", draft (Resources for theFuture, Washington, D.C., 1990), pp. 3-4.43. Victor J. Oliveira, "Nonfarm Employmentof Farm Operators, Hired Farmworkers,and Unpaid Farmworkers" (Economic ResearchService, U.S. Department of Agriculture,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 4.44. Op. tit.42, pp. 2-3.45. Op. tit. 41.46. C. Edwin Young, Bradley M. Crowder,James S. Shortle, et al., "Nutrient Managementon Dairy Farms in Southeastern Pennsylvania,"Journal of Soil and WaterConservation, Vol. 40, No. 5 (1985), p. 443.47. William Lockeretz, "Open Questions in SustainableAgriculture," American Journal of AlternativeAgriculture, Vol. 3, No. 4 (1988),p. 176.48. Scott Kilman, "Farmers, Eying Costs andthe Environment, Limit Use of Chemicals,"Wall Street Journal (May 30,1990), pp. 1,14.49. D.L. Karlen, D.C. Erbach, T.C. Kaspar, et al.,"Soil Tilth: A Review of Past Perceptionsand Future Needs," Soil Science Society ofAmerica Journal, Vol. 54 (1990), pp. 156,158.50. C.A. Francis and M.D. Clegg, "Crop Rotationsin Sustainable Agricultural Systems,"in Sustainable Agricultural Systems, Clive A.Edwards, Rattan Lai, Patrick Madden, et al.,eds. (Soil and Water Conservation Society,Alkeny, Iowa, 1990), p. 115.51. World Health Organization (WHO), Guidelinesfor Drinking-Water Quality, Vol. 2(WHO, Geneva, 1984), pp. 132-133.52. Op. tit.48, pp. 1,14.53. Op. tit. 7, p. 242.54. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), The State of theEnvironment (OECD, Paris, 1991), pp. 171,175.55. Ibid., p. 173.56. Ibid., pp. 173,180.57. Ibid., p.\73.58. World Resources Institute in collaborationwith the United Nations Development Programmeand the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, World Resources 1990-91(Oxford University Press, New York, 1990),p. 289.59. Op. tit. 35, p. 255.60. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Reportand Recommendations on Organic Farming(USDA, Washington, D.C, 1980), p.xii-xiii.61. Alex Dubgaard, Per Olsen, and Soren Sorenson,"Profitability of Organic Farming inDenmark" (Institute of Agricultural Economics,Copenhagen, 1990), p. 65.62. Op. dt. 60, pp. xiii, 11.63. Op. cit. 38, p. 2.64. American Farmland Trust, Agriculture andthe Environment: A Study of Farmer Practicesand Perceptions (American Farmland Trust,Washington, D.C, 1990), p. i.65. David C. Coleman and Paul F. Hendrix,"Agroecosystem Processes," in EcologicalStudies 67, L.R. Pomeroy and J.J. Alberts,eds. (Springer-Verlag, New York, 1988),pp. 156-157.66. Len Bull, "Pesticide Use by Tillage System,1988 and 1989 Corn Production," in AgriculturalResources: Inputs Situation and OutlookReport (Economic Research Service, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, Washington, D.C,1991), p. 35.67. Op. tit. 49, pp. 156,158.68. Bette Hileman, "Alternative Agriculture,"Chemical and Engineering News (March 5,1990), p. 31.69. Science Council of Canada, A Growing Concern:Soil Degradation in Canada (ScienceCouncil of Canada, Ottawa, 1986), p. 12.70. Op. cit. 49, p. 158.71. Op. cit. 69, p. 11.72. Arthur J. Conacher, "Salt of the Earth," Environment(July/August 1990), p. 4.73. Op. cit. 36, p. 33.74. D.L. Schertz, W.C. Moldenhauer, S.J. Livingston,et al., "Effect of Past Soil Erosion onCrop Productivity in Indiana," Journal ofSoil and Water Conservation, Vol. 44, No. 6(1989), p. 604.75. Tim Osborn, Section Leader, Domestic andAgricultural Policy, Economic Research Service,U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington,DC, 1991 (personal communication).76. Op. cit. 13, p. 12, Table 5.77. Brian Gardner, "European Agriculture's EnvironmentalProblems," paper presented atthe First Annual Conference of the HudsonInstitute, Indianapolis, Indiana, April 1990,p. 6.78. C. Arden-Clarke and R.D. Hodges, "The EnvironmentalEffects of Conventional and Organic/BiologicalFarming Systems. 1. SoilErosion, with Special Reference to Britain,"World Resources 1992-93109

7 Food and AgricultureBiological Agriculture and Horticulture, Vol. 4(1987), p. 322.79. Heino von Meyer, "Agriculture and the Environmentin the European Community"(Institute for Agricultural Economics, Frankfurt,Germany, 1989), p. 5.80. Robert F. Wasserstrom and Richard Wiles,Field Duty: U.S. Farmworkers and PesticideSafety (World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1985), p. 4.81. Michael J. Dover, A Better Mousetrap: ImprovingPest Management for Agriculture (WorldResources Institute, Washington, D.C.,1985), p. 4.82. George P. Georghiou, "Overview of PesticideResistance," in Managing Resistance toAgrochemicals, Maurice B. Green, Homer M.LeBaron, and William K. Moberg, eds.(American Chemical Society, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. 18.83. Op. cif. 81, pp. 5-6.84. Michael Duffy and Leland Thompson, "TheExtent and Nature of Iowa Crop ProductionPractices, 1989" (Iowa State University,Ames, Iowa, 1991), pp. 12,15.85. Op. at. 79, p. 4.86. Edwin H. Clark II, Jennifer A. Havercamp,and William Chapman, Eroding Soils: TheOff-Farm Impacts (The Conservation Foundation,Washington, D.C., 1985), p. 7.87. Carl F. Myers, James Meek, Stuart Tuller, etal., "Nonpoint Sources of Water Pollution,"Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, Vol.40, No. 1 (1985), p. 10.88. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), "National Survey of Pesticides inDrinking Water Wells: Phase 1" (EPA,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. vii.89. George R. Hallberg, "Pesticide Pollution ofGroundwater in the Humid United States,"Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment,Vol. 26 (1989), p. 299.90. Mi, p. 343.91. Op. cit. 77, p. 5.92. Op. cit. 77, p. 5.93. Op. cit. 79, p. 5.94. Op. cit. 54, p. 182.95. Steve Crutchfield, "Controlling Farm Pollutionof Coastal Waters," in AgriculturalChemicals and the Environment (Economic ResearchService, U.S. Department of Agriculture,Washington, D.C., 1988), p. 8.96. Op. cit. 54, p. 182.97. Marc O. Ribaudo, "Water Quality Benefitsfrom the Conservation Reserve Program"(U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington,D.C., 1989), pp. 4, 7.98. Op. cit. 86, pp. 63-64.99. Op. cit. 36, p. 3.100. Jules N. Pretty and Gordon R. Conway,"Agriculture as a Global Polluter" (InternationalInstitute for Environment and Development,London, 1988), pp. 5-7.101. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), Agricultural andEnvironmental Policies: Opportunities for Integration(OECD, Paris, 1989), p. 44.102. Op. cit. 100, pp. 8-9.103. Op.cit.77,p.7.104. Op. cit. 91, p. 7.105. Op. cit. 54, p. 183.106. Katherine H. Reichelderfer, "EnvironmentalEffects of Farm Programs in DevelopedCountries," in Sustainable Agriculture: Its PolicyEffects on the Future of Canada andOntario's Agrifood System (University ofGuelph, Guelph, Ontario, May 1990), pp. 32-33.107. Ibid., pp. 36-37.108. Op. cit. 41.109. J.F. Parr, R.I. Papendick, I.G. Youngberg, etal., "Sustainable Agriculture in the UnitedStates," in Sustainable Agricultural Systems,Clive A. Edwards, Rattan Lai, Patrick Madden,et al., eds. (Soil and Water ConservationSociety, Ankeny, Iowa, 1990),pp. 62-63.110. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA),"The 1990 Farm Act and the 1990 BudgetReconciliation Act" (Economic Research Service,USDA, Washington, D.C., 1990), pp.23-25.111. Heino von Meyer, "The Common AgriculturalPolicy and the Environment: The Effectsof Price Policy and Options for itsReform" (World Wildlife Fund International,Gland, Switzerland, n.d.), p. 5.112. Julius Rosenblatt, Thomas Mayer, KasperBartholdy, et al., The Common AgriculturalPolicy of the European Community: Principlesand Consequences (International MonetaryFund, Washington, D.C., 1988), p. 6.113. Op. cit. Ill, pp. 5, 7-8.114. Op. cit. 106, p. 38.115. Op. cit. 101, p. 59.116. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), "Agriculture and the Environment:OECD Policy Experiences and AmericanOpportunities" (EPA, Washington, D.C.,1990), p. 12.117. Op. cit. 101, pp. 100-101.118. C. Tim Osborne, Section Leader, EconomicResearch Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personalcommunication).119. Op. cit. 106, p. 48.120. Op. cit. 116, p. 14.121. David Ervin and James Tobey, "EuropeanAgricultural and Environmental Policies:Sorting through Incentives," paper presentedat a conference entitled, "Is EnvironmentalQuality Good for Business? Problemsand Prospects in the Agricultural, Energy,and Chemical Industries," American EnterpriseInstitute for Public Policy Research,Washington, D.C.June 1990, pp. 6,13.122. Op. cit. 101, p. 173.123. Michael D. Young, "Some Steps in OtherCountries," EPA Journal (April 1988), p. 25.124. Op. cit. 121, p. 11.125. Op. cit. 123, p. 25.126. Op. cit. 121, pp. 13-14.127. Heino von Meyer, Institute for AgriculturalEconomics, Frankfurt, Germany, 1991 (personalcommunication).128. Op. cit. 101, p. 110.129. Op. cit. 121, pp. 13-14.130. Op. cit. 101, p. 99.131. Op. cit. 121, p. 10.132. Op. cit. 101, pp. 110,118.133. Op. cit. 101, p. 103.134. Alex Dubgaard, Professor, Department ofEconomics and Natural Resources, RoyalVeterinary and Agricultural University,Frederiksberg, Denmark, 1991 (personalcommunication).135. Op. cit. 121, pp. 16-17.136. Alex Dubgaard, "Danish Policy Measuresto Control Agricultural Impacts on the Environment"(Institute of Agricultural Economics,Copenhagen, 1990), p. 18.137. Op. cit. 101, p. 102.138. Op. cit. 54, p. 182.139. Op. cit. 136, p. 14.140. Ernst Lutz and Michael Young, "Integrationof Environmental Concerns into AgriculturalPolicies of Industrial and DevelopingCountries," World Development (forthcoming).141. Op. cit. 136, pp. 15-16.142. Op. cit. 101, p. 98.143. Glen Anderson, Ann De Bossu, and PeterKuch, "Control of Agricultural Pollution byRegulation," in Agriculture and Water Quality:International Perspectives, John Bradenand Steve Lovejoy, eds. (Lynne RiennerPublishers, Boulder, Colorado and London,1990), p. 77.144. Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), "Socio- EconomicAspects of Environmental Policies in EuropeanAgriculture" (FAO, Rome, 1990),p. 25.145. Op. cit. 38, p. 7.146. Op. cit. 38, p. 11.147. Op. cit. 61, p. 68.148. Op. cit. 61, pp. 65, 68, 71.149. W.C. Liebhardt, R.W. Andrews, M.N.Culik, et al., "Crop Production During Conversionfrom Conventional to Low-InputMethods," Agronomy Journal, Vol. 81, No. 2(1989), pp. 150,158.150. Op. cit. 36, p. 11.151. Op. cit. 36, p. 11.152. Op. cit. 36, pp. 11-12.153. Op. cit. 36, pp. 12-13.154. Op. cit. 36, pp. 18-19.155. Op. cit. 112, p. 11.156. Op. cit. Ill, pp. 13-16.157. Edward Barbier, Director, London EnvironmentalEconomics Centre, University CollegeLondon, London, 1991 (personalcommunication).158. Op. cit. Ill, pp. 15-16.110World Resources 1992-93

8. Forests and RangelandsTwo new studies offer the best estimates so far on thecondition of global soil resources and tropical forests.Both these resources faced heavy pressure during thepast half-century, when the world population doubled.As a result, their condition is declining rapidly.Over the past 45 years, about 11 percent of the Earth'svegetated soils became degraded to the point that theiroriginal biotic functions are damaged, and reclamationmay be costly or in some cases impossible. Preliminaryresults of a United Nations tropical deforestation assessmentconfirm scattered data showing that deforestationincreased 50 percent during the 1980s to anaverage of nearly 17 million hectares per year.The extent of soil degradation and tropical deforestationhas been controversial. Environmentalists havepointed with alarm to eroding hillsides, barren drylandsstudded with the trunks of once-thriving trees,and burned-out tropical forests. Others have pointedto rising crop and livestock production as a sign thatno problem exists. Although many researchers documentedlocal conditions, the lack of scientific up-todateglobal assessments has left policymakers withouta firm information base for making decisions. The newstudies are significant advances in global resource informationalthough they have limitations and reflectfunding and time constraints. Both are preliminary assessmentsreleased in advance of longer-term, more detailedstudies. However, they are clearly the best estimatesavailable and they offer urgently needed informationto policymakers.These studies can be viewed as waypoints used by anavigator in sailing a course. They assess where we arenow. An old Chinese proverb warns that if we do notchange the direction we are going, we will end upwhere we are headed.CONDITIONS AND TRENDSNEW SOIL DEGRADATION ESTIMATESAn area approximately the size of China and Indiacombined has suffered moderate to extreme soil degradationcaused mainly by agricultural activities, deforestation,and overgrazing in the past 45 years, accor-World Resources 1992-93111

8 Forests and RangelandsTable 8.1 Human-Induced Soil Degradation,1945-90RegionTotal DegradedArea (millionhectares)WorldTotal degraded area 1,964.4Moderate, severe, and extreme 1,215.4Light 749.0EuropeTotal degraded area 218.9Moderate, severe, and extreme 158.3Light 60.6AfricaTotal degraded area 494.2Moderate, severe, and extreme 320.6Light 173.6AsiaTotal degraded area 747.0Moderate, severe, and extreme 452.5Light 294.5OceaniaTotal degraded area 102.9Moderate, severe, and extreme 6.2Light 96.6North AmericaTotal degraded area 95.5Moderate, severe, and extreme 78.7Light 16.8Central America and MexicoTotal degraded area 62.8Moderate, severe, and extreme 60.9Light 1.9South AmericaTotal degraded area 243.4Moderate, severe, and extreme 138.5Light 104.8Degraded Area asa Percentage ofVegetated Land17.010.56.523.116.76.422.114.47.819.812.07.813.10.812.35.34.40.924.824.10.714.08.06.0Source: L.R. Oldeman, V.W.P. van Engelen, and J.H.M. Pulles, "The Extent ofHuman-Induced Soil Degradation," Annex 5 of L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A.Hakkeling, and W.G. Sombroek, World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An Explanatory Note, rev. 2d ed. (InternationalSoil Reference and Information Centre, Wageningen, the Netherlands,1990), Tables 1-7.Note: Totals may not add because of rounding.ding to a new study sponsored by the United NationsEnvironment Programme (UNEP). This area—1.2 billionhectares—represents almost 11 percent of theEarth's vegetated surface (l) (2) (3). (See Table 8.1.)This degraded land has lost some of its natural productivity.Most of it suffers from "moderate" degradation,that is, its agricultural productivity is "greatlyreduced," but it can still be used for agriculture. Thesoil's original biotic functions (its ability to process nutrientsinto a form usable by plants) have been partiallydestroyed and only with major improvementscan productivity be restored. A smaller portion of vegetatedland—300 million hectares, almost 3 percent ofthe world total—shows "severe" degradation; its originalbiotic functions are largely destroyed, and it is reclaimableonly with major international financial andtechnical assistance. Degradation of less than 1 percent—9million hectares—is classified as "extreme,"defined as "unreclaimable and beyond restoration." Itsoriginal biotic functions are fully destroyed (4). (SeeChapter 19, "Forests and Rangelands," Table 19.3.)If one were to include the nearly 750 million hectaresof terrain whose degradation is "light," the area withsoil degraded just since World War II would be 17 percentof the Earth's total vegetated land. (See Table 8.1.)Lightly degraded soils have lost some productivity butcan be restored through farm conservation practices.Their biotic functions are largely intact (5).The three-year study, the Global Assessment of SoilDegradation (GLASOD), was sponsored by UNEP andcoordinated by the International Soil Reference and InformationCentre (ISRIC) in the Netherlands. TheGLASOD study is associated with a more detailedglobal soils project—the World Soils and Terrain DigitalDatabase (SOTER), also being coordinated byISRIC, for the International Society of Soil Science(ISSS) and targeted for completion in 15-20 years.UNEP pressed for an earlier assessment because "politicallyit is important to have an assessment of goodquality now instead of having an assessment of verygood quality in 15 or 20 years" (6). UNEP plans to combineelements of the GLASOD soil degradation surveywith data on population, climatology, and vegetationloss in a world desertification atlas (7). Desertificationencompasses soil degradation and associated changesin vegetation in arid and semiarid regions.GLASOD asked more than 250 soil scientists and 21regional coordinators for their expert estimates of thedegree, type, and causes of the human-induced soildegradation that has occurred since World War II.They were also asked to estimate how much land areawas affected in specified physiographic mappingunits. After this information was compiled, it wasmapped at an average scale of 1:15 million. The mapwas subsequently digitized and summary tables andthematic maps drawn.GLASOD also included a pilot study in Latin America(parts of Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay) to test amethodology for SOTER.TrendsGLASOD is the first baseline study using a consistentmethodology to estimate global soil degradation.ISRIC researchers hope to follow it with surveys every10 years, which will enable them to estimate a rate ofdegradation (8).The GLASOD results are all the more alarming because,unlike other attempts to estimate land degradation,they do not include land degraded by ancientcivilizations or even by colonial expansion; nor dothey include land that is naturally barren. Soil scientistswere asked to categorize only soils degraded overthe past 45 years because of human intervention (9).But the 45-year period masks improvements. In atleast the United States, and parts of Europe and Australia,soil conditions worsened, then improved owingto government soil conservation programs (10) (11). Inthe United States, for example, nonfederal land sufferingwater-related erosion in excess of an accepted sustainablerate declined from 13.6 percent in 1982 to 12.6percent in 1987 (12).Degrees of Soil DegradationGLASOD defines soil degradation as "a process thatdescribes human-induced phenomena which lower112World Resources 1992-93

Forests and Rangelands 8Box 8.1 Degrees of Soil DegradationLIGHT DEGRADATIONAbout 750 million hectares are lightly degraded.In deep soils, part of the topsoilhas been removed and/or shallow, widelyspaced rills or hollows appear. On rangeland,70 percent of the land is covered bynative perennials. In salinized areas, salinityhas increased slightly over the past 45years.MODERATE DEGRADATIONMost of the degraded land—910 millionhectares—is moderately degraded. Manifestationsof moderate degradation include:Water and wind erosion. For deep soils, alltopsoil has been removed, or the terrainshows shallow rills less than 20 metersapart, moderately deep gullies 20-50 metersapart, or shallow to moderately deephollows. In shallow soils, part of the topsoilhas been removed, or the terrainshows either shallow rills 20-50 metersapart or shallow hollows. In rangelands,the terrain has 30-70 percent of its nativevegetation.Chemical degradation due to nutrient decline.In temperate regions, on cleared andcultivated grassland or savannahs withrich soil, nutrient decline involves amarked reduction in the decomposition oforganic matter into stable nutrients thatcan be used by plants. Decomposition oforganic matter by micro- and macroorganismsnot only improves soil fertility,it also increases the soil's water-holding capacityand gives it a more stable structure.The organisms convert leaves and otherfresh organic matter into more stable organiccomponents called humus. Humusadsorbs nutrients and water and "glues"soil particles together in stable clusters. Ifthis process is disrupted, decompositioncan proceed too rapidly, burning up nutrientsbefore plants can use them. Soil withfaulty decomposition is less fertile, drier,and more easily compacted (l).In humid tropical regions, some nutrientloss often occurs in moderately rich soilsthat were deforested for cultivation andthen not fertilized adequately. Land definedas moderately saline has increased insalinity since World War II, as indicatedby a loss in productivity of crops that arenot tolerant to salt or by a shift from intolerantto more tolerant species (e.g., fromsalt-intolerant wheat to barley) (2).Physical degradation. Here the soil structureno longer allows good water retentionand deep root penetration but allowsonly the development of shallow root systems.Water runoff from compacted soilcan cause both further erosion and waterpollution. Physical degradation is the leastcommon of the four types of soil degradation.It is found mainly on heavily stockedpastureland and on farmland whereheavy machinery is used (3).SEVERE DEGRADATIONWorldwide, 300 million hectares have becomeseverely degraded in the past 45years. Soils severely degraded by windand water erosion show deeper, more frequentgullies and hollows. Pasturelandhas less than 30 percent of its native vegetation(4). In tropical areas with poor soils,severe nutrient depletion occurs where allbiomass has been cleared and crops growpoorly or not at all. Productivity cannot beimproved by nitrogen fertilizer alone.EXTREME DEGRADATIONExtremely degraded soils can be foundwhere deforestation, overgrazing or othercauses of degradation have occurred onsoils with inherently poor parent materials.No crop growth occurs and restorationis impossible (5). About 9 millionhectares fall into this category. Extremedegradation has been documented in centralItaly (caused by water erosion), Somalia(wind erosion) and the Soviet Unionnear Iran (salinization) (6).References and Notes1. L.R. Oldeman, Program and Project Division,International Soil Reference and InformationCentre, Wageningen, the Netherlands,1991 (personal communication).2. Ibid.3. Ibid.4. L.R. Oldeman, ed., Guidelines for GeneralAssessment of the Status of Human-InducedSoil Degradation (International Soil Referenceand Information Centre, Wageningen,the Netherlands, 1988), p. 6.5. Ibid., p. 5.6. Global Assessment of Soil Degradation,World Map on Status of Human-Induced SoilDegradation, Sheet 2, Europe, Africa, andWestern Asia (United Nations EnvironmentProgramme International Soil Referenceand Information Centre, Nairobi,1990.)the current and/or future capacity of the soil to supporthuman life" (13). The degrees of soil degradationused in the study (light, moderate, severe, and extreme)are described in Box 8.1. Land that is lightly degraded(about 750 million hectares) generally involvesgood soils that show signs of degradation but can berestored by using conservation practices. Of more concernare soils moderately, severely, and extremely degraded.Even though agricultural production may beincreasing owing to increased inputs of fertilizers andpesticides, moderately degraded soils (910 million hectares)would produce even higher yields were they notdegraded. Without intervention, loss of potential productivitywill continue. Severely (300 million hectares)and extremely degraded (9 million hectares) soils areobviously degraded even to a nonexpert and show anactual loss of productivity (14).Restoring Degraded SoilsRestoring lightly degraded soils can be accomplishedwith crop rotation, minimum tillage, and other on-farmpractices. (See Chapter 7, "Food and Agriculture.")Restoring moderately degraded land to its formerproductivity would take more resources than an averagefarmer can provide, according to GLASOD.Changes in soil conservation practices might slow thedegradation but will not restore fertility. For moderatelydegraded soils to be restored, national programswill have to provide financial incentives and technicalexpertise. Restoring productivity usually requiresmajor structural changes—draining for waterloggingor salinity or creating contour banks for eroding soil,for example.Severely eroded land generally requires a restorationeffort beyond the capacity of most developing nations;bilateral or multilateral financial and technical assistancewould be needed. Restoration efforts would requiresimilar but more extensive engineering works,such as deep ditches to drain the land and terraces tohold it in place and, for compacted land, mechanizeddeep plowing and reseeding. In practice, land that requiresexpensive restoration is often simply abandoned(15) (16).World Resources 1992-93113

8 Forests and RangelandsFigure 8.1 Types of Soil Degradation56%EH Water Erosion• Wind ErosionB Chemical DegradationH Physical Degradation81%28% 2%16%OceaniaWorld52%58%19%12%Europe17%38%Africa30%Asia10%63%74%51%North America11%Central AmericaSource: L.R. Oldeman, V.W.P. van Engelen, and J.H.M. Pulles, "The Extent of Human-Induced Soil Degradation," Annex 5 of L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling, andW.G. Sombroek, World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An Explanatory Note, rev. 2d ed. (International Soil Reference and Information Centre,Wageningen, the Netherlands, 1990), Figure 5. Note: Categories not shown in regions represent less than 1 percent.Figure 8.2 Causes of Soil Degradation30%EH DeforestationII OverexploitationII Overgrazing1%O Agricultural Activities80%35%• IndustrializationOceania13%40%14%23%9%19%Europe30%49%26%Asia41%27%15%66%28% V^ •' ;i$%North AmericaCentral AmericaSouth AmericaSource: L.R. Oldeman, V.W.P. van Engelen, and J.H.M. Pulles, "The Extent of Human-Induced Soil Degradation," Annex 5 of L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling, andW.G. Sombroek, World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An Explanatory Note, rev. 2d ed. (International Soil Reference and Information Centre,Wageningen, the Netherlands, 1990), Figure 5. Note: Categories not shown in regions represent less than 1 percent.114World Resources 1992-93

Forests and Rangelands 8Box 8.2 Types of Soil DegradationWind and water erosion strip away nutrient-richtopsoil, leaving the land less productive;whereas degradation by physicaland chemical processes reduces the productivityof the soil in situ. The four processesof degradation defined by the GlobalAssessment of Soil Degradation are describedbelow.WATER EROSIONLoss of topsoil through water erosion isthe most common type of soil degradation.Also called surface or sheet erosion, itoccurs in all countries. Because topsoil isrelatively rich in nutrients, its loss may impoverishthe soil. Terrain deformation,such as the creation of gullies, is an extremeform of water erosion. Control ofgullies is difficult and reclamation almostimpossible. Water erosion that occurs naturallyon steep slopes is not included inthis study unless it is accelerated byhuman intervention.WIND EROSIONWind erosion is widespread in both aridand semiarid climates. In general, coarsesoils are highly susceptible to wind erosion.It is nearly always caused by a decreasein the vegetative cover of the soil byovergrazing, agricultural practices, deforestation,or fuelwood removal. Terrain displacedby wind erosion forms hollows anddunes. Overblowing, the coverage of offsiteland by a layer of blown soil, is a sideeffect of wind erosion. It affects roads,buildings, and waterways and can damageagricultural land.CHEMICAL DETERIORATIONNutrients can be depleted or strippedwhen agriculture is practiced on poor ormoderately fertile soils without sufficientapplication of manure or other fertilizers.As soil nutrients are progressively exhausted,production drops. Loss of nutrientsis widespread in countries whereunsustainable agriculture is practiced.Loss of nutrients also occurs when naturalforest or other vegetation is cleared.Salinization occurs when the concentrationof salts in the topsoil increases, renderingthe land unfit for agriculture. It can becaused by three human activities: poorlydrained irrigation systems; excessivegroundwater withdrawals in coastal areas,allowing sea water to infiltrate an aquifer;and activities that lead to increased evapotranspirationin soils with salt-containingparent material or saline groundwater.Acidification can be caused by the drainageof pyrite-containing soils in coastal areasor by overapplication of acidifyingfertilizer. Acidification reduces productivity.Pollution is most closely associated withindustrial and urban wastes, excessive pesticideuse, airborne pollutant acidification,excessive manuring in feedlots, and oiland chemical spills.PHYSICAL DETERIORATIONCompaction occurs in all continents undernearly all climatic and soil conditions.Compaction is usually caused by heavymachinery, but it is also caused by cattletrampling. Soils with low organic matterlevels are especially vulnerable. Compactionmakes tillage more costly, impedesseedling emergence, and decreases waterinfiltration, causing higher runoff of rainwaterand increasing water erosion.Waterlogging includes flooding by riverwater and submergence by rainwater as aresult of human intervention in naturaldrainage systems. The construction offlooded paddy fields is not included becausethey are considered an improvementto the soil.Subsidence of organic soils caused bydrainage and/or oxidation is recognizedas a deteriorator only when the agriculturalpotential of the land is reduced (D.References and Notes1. L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling, andW.G. Sombroek, World Map of the Status ofHuman-Induced Soil Degradation: An ExplanatoryNote, rev. 2d ed. (International SoilReference and Information Centre,Wageningen, the Netherlands, 1990),pp. 12-14.Types of Soil DegradationFigure 8.1 shows the four types of soil degradation ineach geographic region. Wind and water erosionsweep soil away when its' vegetation is removed; chemicaland physical degradation are characterized by changesin the soil rather than by its displacement. Only landthat has been abandoned or forced into less intensive useis classified as chemically degraded (17). (See Box 8.2 fora more detailed discussion of types of soil degradation.)Causes of Soil DegradationFigure 8.2 shows that the causes of the land degradationdocumented by GLASOD are about equally dividedamong unsustainable livestock grazing, agriculture,and forestry practices. Some degradation iscaused by overexploitation for fuelwood collection. Asmall amount (1.5 percent) is degraded by industrialactivities, such as waste disposal and excessive pesticideuse.OvergrazingOvergrazing by livestock decreases vegetation, exposingthe soil to water and wind erosion. In addition,livestock trample and thereby compact the soil, reducingits capacity to retain moisture. Overgrazing is themost pervasive cause of soil degradation, affecting 679million hectares (35 percent of all degraded land). InAfrica and Australia, overgrazing causes 49 percentand 80 percent, respectively, of soil degradation,mainly in semiarid and arid regions (18).Agricultural ActivitiesCommon agricultural practices such as insufficient useof fertilizers or shortening the fallow periods in shiftingcultivation can lead to a loss of nutrients. But toomuch fertilizer can lead to soil acidification. Cultivatinghillsides without adequate preventive measuresleads to water erosion. Leaving soil exposed during fallowperiods often results in wind erosion. Use ofheavy machinery compacts soil, resulting in physicaldamage. Insufficient drainage of irrigation water maycause salinization. Worldwide, faulty agricultural practicesaccount for 28 percent of the degraded soils, althoughNorth America is the region where agriculturalpractices cause the greatest share (57 percent) (19).Deforestation and Land ConversionIn this category, GLASOD includes both conversion offorestland to agriculture and urban use and large-scalelogging. (Deforestation statistics in "Trends in Defores-World Resources 1992-93115

8 Forests and RangelandsBox 8.3 World Areas of Soil DegradationOf the world's 1.2 billion hectares withmoderate, severe, and extreme soil degradation,the largest areas are in Asia (453million hectares) and Africa (321 millionhectares). Most of this soil degradation iscaused by water and wind erosion resultingfrom agricultural activities, overgrazing,deforestation, and fuelwood collection.Central America shows the highestpercentage of vegetated land with moderateto extreme soil degradation (24 percent),followed by Europe (17 percent),Africa (14 percent), and Asia (12 percent).(See Table 8.1.)Figure 1 is a simplified version of theGlobal Assessment of Soil Degradation(GLASOD) map, which indicates areas ofmajor concern because of either severedegradation in small areas or moderatedegradation over larger areas.EUROPEIn Europe, a relatively high amount—28percent—of degraded soils are chemicallyand physically degraded. More than 14million hectares are contaminated with industrialand urban wastes, pesticides, andother pollutants. Much of the chemicaldegradation is found in Poland, Germany,Hungary, and southern Sweden. Almost 8million hectares, mostly in southern Swedenand Finland, Germany, Belgium,northern Italy, Spain, and Romania are degradedby compaction from livestock andthe use of heavy machinery (l) (2).AFRICAAreas of serious chemical soil deteriorationhave been reported in several areas ofsub-Saharan Africa and the Nile valley.This condition is caused mainly by nutrientloss on land under low-input agriculture(25 million hectares) and by salinizationresulting from poor managementof irrigation systems (10 million hectares).Areas of extreme physical deterioration,mainly from cattle trampling, are found inparts of the Sahel and southern Africa. Erosionis a major cause of Africa's soil degradation—winderosion in the belts northand south of the Sahara and water erosionin sub-Saharan Africa (3) (4). Almost onehalf (49 percent) of the continent's soil degradationresults from overgrazing. Otherhuman activities that lead to soil degradationare agricultural practices (24 percent),deforestation (14 percent), and fuelwoodcollection (13 percent) (5).ASIASevere water erosion is extensive in westernIndia, throughout the Himalayas, inSoutheast Asia, and in large areas ofChina. Western China and Mongolia experienceserious wind erosion. Chemicaldeterioration (mostly loss of nutrients inagriculture, acidification, and salinization)is found in northern India, Bangladesh,Burma, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia,northern China, and North and SouthKorea. Forty percent of Asia's soil degradationis caused by deforestation, 27 percentby agriculture, 26 percent by overgrazing,6 percent by fuelwood collection,and less than 1 percent by industrialization(6) (7).OCEANIAEighty percent of the soil degradation inAustralia and the South Pacific resultsfrom overgrazing. Southern Australiashows some water and wind erosion.Many Pacific islands suffer moderate tostrong water erosion (8) (9).NORTH AMERICANorth America's breadbasket, the area ofrich prairie soils extending from the U.S.Midwest through the Great Plains intoCanada, shows moderate degradationfrom wind and water erosion. Althoughsoils here are still among the world's mostfertile, they have lost some of their originalproductivity. They require more fertilizersand high-yielding crop varieties tosustain outputs. In the United States,major government soil conservation programshave begun to stabilize some areas,yet unsustainable farming practices couldlead to further deterioration (10). Highwater-related erosion rates are found inareas along the Mississippi and Missouririvers, in California's central valley, and inthe hilly Palouse of Washington state.There are areas of serious salinization inthe U.S. Southwest 01). About 25 percentof U.S. cropland is eroding at a rate fasterthan is considered sustainable by the SoilConservation Service (12). North Americais the region with the least amount of vegetatedland degraded by humans (5.3 percent).CENTRAL AMERICASevere water, chemical, and physical degradationof the soil is found in Mexico andCentral America, where 25 percent of thevegetated land is moderately to extremelydegraded, 10 percent of it (25.5 millionhectares) in the serious and extreme categories(13). Most of the soil degradation resultsfrom water erosion along the mountainousPacific coast, but there is also seriousphysical and chemical deterioration insoutheastern Mexico, Honduras, and Nicaragua.Most of this degradation wascaused by deforestation and overgrazing,some by poor agricultural practices (14).SOUTH AMERICAIn the Amazon region, most of the soil isstable or shows low deterioration rates exceptfor areas of extensive deforestation,such as southwestern and northeasternBrazil and eastern Paraguay. The agriculturaland grazing lands of Argentina showmedium to high wind erosion degradation,and the western slopes of the Andesshow medium to high water erosion degradation.Much of the coastline, which includesthe majority of human settlements,shows medium to high soil degradation (15).tation," below, include land conversion, but not logging.)Deforestation accounts for 579 million hectares,30 percent of the world's degraded land area. Deforestationoccurs on all continents, but it is most pronouncedin Asia, where it has caused the degradationof 298 million hectares (20).Over exploitation for FuelwoodIn dry areas, stripping land of vegetation for fuelwoodalso leads to wind and water erosion. Worldwide,over-exploitation accounts for 7 percent of the degradedsoils. Africa has the highest percentage (13 percent)of degraded soils from this cause. (See Figure 8.2.)IndustrializationThis category includes industrial and waste accumulationand acidification by airborne pollutants. Almost23 million hectares—more than 20 million of them inEurope—are degraded by these activities (21).Interpretation of ResultsBox 8.3 describes the location of degraded soils regionallyand points to the areas of special concern. TheGLASOD report concludes that if no restoration of the910 million hectares of moderately degraded land is accomplishedsoon, "one may fear that at least part of itmay become strongly degraded in the near future."The report further notes that the "vast majority ofstrongly degraded land is located in Asia and Africa,"where a large fraction of the world's poor lives. "Onlymajor investments and engineering works can restoresome of [these lands'] productivity" (22). Should themoderately degraded land—an area almost the size ofthe United States—become seriously or extremely degraded,it could have a major impact on the produc-116World Resources 1992-93

Forests and Rangelands 8Figure 1 Areas of Concern for Soil Degradation• Areas of Serious Concern• Areas of Some ConcernI I Stable TerrainII Nonvegetated LandSource: International Soil Reference and Information Centre, unpublished map (Wageningen, the Netherlands, 1990).Note: Dark colored areas are of serious concern because of localized severe or extreme soil degradation or widespread moderate degradation. Light coloredareas are of some concern because of localized moderate or severe degradation or widespread light degradation.References and Notes1. L.R. Oldeman, V.W.P. van Engelen, andJ.H.M. Pulles, "The Extent of Human-InducedSoil Degradation," Annex 5 of L.R.Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling, and W.G.Sombroek, World Map of the Status ofHuman-Induced Soil Degradation: An ExplanatoryNote, revised 2d ed. (InternationalSoil Reference and Information Centre,Wageningen, the Netherlands, 1991), p. 3and Table 7.2. Global Assessment of Soil Degradation,World Map on Status of Human-Induced SoilDegradation, Sheet 2, Europe, Africa, and3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.Western Asia (United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, International Soil Referenceand Information Centre, Nairobi,1990).Op. cit. 1, p. 3 and Figure 4.Op. cit. 2.Op. cit. 1, Figure 5.Op. cit. 1, Figure 5.Op. cit. 1, Figure 5.Op. cit. 1, Figure 5.Op. cit. 1, Figure 5.Richard W. Arnold, Director, Soil SurveyDivision, U.S. Department of Agriculture,11.12.13.14.15.Washington D.C., 1991 (personal communication.)Op. cit. 1, Figure 5.U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA),Soil Conservation Service, Summary Report:1987 National Resources Inventory, StatisticalBulletin No. 790 (USDA, Washington,D.C., 1989), Table 9.L.R. Oldeman, Program and Project Division,International Soil Reference and InformationCentre, Wageningen, the Netherlands,1991 (personal communication).Op. cit. 2, Sheet 1, Figure 5.Op. cit. 2, Sheet 1.tion of food, livestock, and forest products. Productivitylosses on moderately degraded agricultural landcan be mitigated by the increased application of fertilizers.But increasing chemical inputs alone will not reversethe degradation process and may in fact causeserious environmental effects associated with the contaminationof surface and groundwater. (See Chapter7, "Food and Agriculture.")Despite massive soil degradation, agricultural yieldshave steadily increased since World War II owing toimproved high-yielding crop varieties, irrigation, andincreased chemical inputs, such as fertilizer and pesticides.Yet real economic losses have occurred. Modernagricultural technologies are more productive on goodsoils than on poor soils. Although technology oftensustains yields, it only temporarily masks the effects ofsoil degradation; the yield increases might have beeneven greater if the soil had not been degraded. This differencebetween the actual and the potential yield representsa real loss of income (23). For example, as Figure8.3 shows, farmers in the highly erodible Palousearea of Washington state are estimated to have lost thepotential to produce an additional 670 kilograms ofwinter wheat per hectare because of soil erosion.Why do farmers, even those with a secure title totheir land and a continuing commitment to farming,allow soil degradation? Two reasons are given by soilscientists and economists. GLASOD soil scientistspoint out that stopping or reversing moderate soil degradationrequires action beyond the scale of a farm.Watershed management, installation of catchment basins,and other soil conservation measures are typicallyadopted on a regional level by governments. At acertain point, then, the farmer is helpless to restore pro-World Resources 1982-93117

8 Forests and RangelandsFigure 8.3 Predicted Winter WheatProduction Loss from Soil Erosion in thePalouse River Basin, 1930-80(thousand kilograms per hectare)4-3-2-1 -o-1930Potential average wheatproduction without soil erosionAverage long Itproduction1940 1950 1960rm wheat1970 1980Source: Michael T. Jennings, Baird C. Miller, David F. Bezdicek, etal., "Sustainabilityof Dryland Cropping in the Palouse: An Historical View," Journalof Soil and Water Conservation (January-February 1990), p. 79.ductivity. Economists point out that farmers' plantingdecisions are usually influenced more by the currentselling price of their crops than by long-term gains tobe realized from land husbandry. In fact, in fertileareas, an individual farmer may not benefit from conservationpractices. According to a Washington, D.C.,economic institute, for U.S. farmers, "the adoption ofpractices that would indefinitely maintain the productivityof the land would not serve the economic interestof farmers unless their planning horizons extendover 50 years or more and they discount future earningsat a very low, or even zero, rate." Although farmersmay realize short-term benefits from unsustainableagricultural practices, these practices may not servesociety's long-term interests (24). Thus, because of thescale and timeline of the problem, action at the regionaland national levels will be necessary to conservesoil resources and maintain productivity ofagricultural, pasture, and forestlands.TRENDS IN DEFORESTATIONPreliminary results of the Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO) second global assessmentof deforestation confirm earlier reports thattropical deforestation has accelerated dramatically.The FAO interim report released in late 1991 foundtropical deforestation to be almost 17 million hectaresper year compared to an early 1980s estimate of 11.3million—an increase of 50 percent (25). These resultsconfirmed World Resources 1990-91 estimates, based onrecent national deforestation estimates by nine tropicalcountries that tropical deforestation had acceleratedduring the 1980s (26). Preliminary FAO figures showthat temperate and boreal forests are no longer sufferingacute deforestation; instead, these forest areas mayhave increased about 5 percent from 1980 to 1990 (27).Tropical DeforestationTropical deforestation is currently a significant environmentand development issue. Loss of tropical forestsdiminishes biodiversity (see Chapter 9, "Wildlifeand Habitat"), contributes to climate change by releasingstored carbon into the atmosphere, and often resultsin serious soil degradation, sometimes renderingthe land unfit for future agriculture. Yet poor farmersin many tropical countries have no choice but to clearforest to grow crops. Some countries offer economic incentivesfor establishing large ranches on tropicalforestland. Efforts to offer more sustainable optionsare described in Focus On Policies to Manage TropicalForests, below, and in Chapter 1, "Dimensions of SustainableDevelopment." This section describes effortsto document the extent of tropical deforestation.As used here, the term deforestation describes a completechange in land use from forest to agriculture—including shifting cultivation and pasture—or urbanuse. It does not include forest that has been logged andleft to regrow, even if it was clearcut. By opening a forestarea to settlement, logging is often a precursor ofdeforestation. Tropical forest that has been fragmentedby patches of farm or pastureland shows a greatly diminishedbiodiversity and is often degraded (28) (29).Although the FAO is studying fragmentation's effectson forests, statistics on fragmented areas have notbeen published and are not included in the deforestationdata here.According to preliminary FAO data, the annual rateof deforestation in 76 tropical countries, which contain97 percent of the world's tropical forest, rose to 0.9 percentper year during the 1980s, compared with 0.6 percentin 1976-80, when the earlier FAO assessment wasmade.To produce the preliminary data, the FAO team compiledsubregional estimates based on the most recentavailable data from tropical countries. The data werethen updated to 1990 by a computer model based onecological data and population growth. By comparingthe 1990 estimates with deforestation estimates from1976-80, FAO calculated an annual rate of deforestationfor 3 tropical regions and 12 subregions. (SeeTable 8.2.) these rates indicate the part of the forestarea in the subregion that is deforested each year.Of the three tropical regions, Asia's deforestationrate is the highest (1.2 percent per year for 1981-90),Latin America is second (0.9 percent), and Africa is aclose third (0.8 percent). Regionally, West Africa's annualloss rate is highest (2.1 percent), followed by CentralAmerica and Mexico (1.8 percent), continentalSoutheast Asia (1.6 percent), and insular SoutheastAsia and insular Africa (Madagascar, 1.2 percent) (30).A comparison of the new deforestation rates withthe rates for 1976-80 shows that deforestation has acceleratedin some subregions and remained steady inothers. Four subregions' deforestation rates increasedby more than 50 percent: Central Africa, the Caribbean,continental Southeast Asia, and insular SoutheastAsia. Subregions whose deforested area hasincreased by about 50 percent include tropical South118World Resources 1992-93

Forests and Rangelands 8Table 8.2 Preliminary Estimates of Tropical Forest Area and Rate of Deforestation for 87 TropicalCountries, 1981-90(thousand hectares)Regions/SubregionsTotalLatin AmericaCentral America and MexicoCaribbean SubregionTropical South AmericaAsiaSouth AsiaContinental Southeast AsiaInsular Southeast AsiaAfricaWest Sahelian AfricaEast Sahelian AfricaWest AfricaCentral AfricaTropical Southern AfricaInsular AfricaNumber ofCountries TotalStudied Land Area874,815,70032 1,675,7007245,30018769,5001,360,80015 896,600654445,600192,900258,10040 2,243,4008687-528,000489,600203,200406,40010 557,9001 58,200ForestArea 19801,884,100923,00077,00048,800797,100310,80070,60083,200157,000650,30041,90092,30055,200230,100217,70013,200ForestArea 19901,714,800839,90063,50047,100729,300274,90066,20069,700138,900600,10038,00085,30043,400215,400206,30011,700Area DeforestedAnnually1981-9016,9008,3001,4002006,8003,6004001,3001,8005,0004007001,2001,5001,100200Annual Rate ofChange 1981-90(percent)-0.9-0.9-1.8-0.4-0.8-1.2-0.6-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.9-0.8-2.1-0.6-0.5-1.2Source: Forest Resources Assessment 1990 Project, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, "Second Interim Report on the State of TropicalForests," paper presented at the 10th World Forestry Congress, Paris, September 1991 (rev. October 15,1991), Table 1.Note: The major countries in each subregion are listed in Chapter 19," Forests and Rangelands," Table 19.1. Totals may not add because of rounding.America, Central America and Mexico, and tropicalSouthern Africa. The deforestation rate in five othersubregions, four in Africa and one in Asia, remainedabout the same. (See Chapter 19, "Forests and Rangelands,"Table 19.1.)The interim 1990 FAO figure for tropical SouthAmerica shows an increase in the amount of land deforestedfrom 4.6 million hectares per year in 1981-85to 6.8 million hectares per year in 1981-90 (31). Brazilconsiders the recent FAO figures too high. Nationalsatellite studies of Brazil's Legal Amazon, an area of 5million square kilometers encompassing six states andterritories and parts of three others, show a 23 percentdecrease in the annual deforestation rate from 1.79 millionhectares in 1988-89 to 1.38 million hectares in1989-90 (32). Satellite studies by the National Space ResearchInstitute of Brazil showed an average annual deforestationrate of 2.18 million hectares per year for theLegal Amazon from 1979 to 1990. The FAO used a similarestimate of 2.14 million hectares per year for theLegal Amazon during 1985-90 (33). Adding an annualloss of 1 million hectares of dry forest outside the LegalAmazon, as per the FAO 1980 assessment, would raiseBrazil's total annual deforestation to 2.4-3.1 millionhectares. Although the exact figures remain in dispute,most observers agree that Brazil's deforestation ratewas not steady throughout the 1980s but that it peakedaround 1987, then lessened because of changed governmentpolicies and an economic slowdown.According to Brazilian studies, the total cumulativedeforestation in the Legal Amazon as of 1990 was 41.5million hectares (34). This figure represents an area thesize of Sweden.The FAO tropical assessment team has proposed anew, more scientific methodology for estimating theamount and rates of deforestation. This method involvescomparing satellite data from two time periodsin statistically selected sites. By comparing and analyzingsatellite images taken at comparable time of yearand confirming the data with field observations, specialistsat regional centers could produce more accuratedeforestation estimates. These estimates would befed to FAO for compilation of an assessment coveringall tropical regions. The FAO team has also proposedthat tropical deforestation be monitored continuouslyrather than once every 10 years as has been the case.Unfortunately, as of late 1991, the team has been unableto secure the satellite images from the U.S. archivesnesessary to make comparative studies. Andfunding was uncertain for ongoing tropical forest monitoring.Nevertheless, The FAO team hopes to presentits best estimates in a final report to the United NationsConference on Environment and Development inJune 1992.Key IssuesINITIATIVES TO HALT DEFORESTATIONDelegates to the June 1992 United Nations Conferenceon Environment and Development are expected to considera nonbinding statement of principles on the management,conservation and sustainable developmentof the world's forests.The decision to consider a nonbinding statement ofprinciples, rather than something more authoritativesuch as a forest convention, was reached at a mid-1991 preparatory meeting. It reflected a view that therewas relatively little consensus about the substance of aconvention and insufficient time to reach a consensusbefore the 1992 meeting.The principles were in an early draft form in September1991, with much of the language still subject to furthernegotiation or deletion. The September draft affirmedthat states had the right to develop their forestsaccording to their needs, but that forests should be sustainablymanaged and that national policies wereneeded to strengthen the conservation and sustainableWorld Resources 1992-93119

8 Forests and Rangelandsdevelopment of forests. Each state had the responsibilityto establish plans for the management, conservation,and sustainable development of all types offorests.The draft principles attempt to acknowledge theglobal complexity of forest conservation by, for example,recognizing that the external indebtedness of developingcountries had reduced their capacity to manageforests sustainably, that problems of poverty andfood security were linked to deforestation, and thatconsumption of forest products in industrialized countrieswas an important cause of deforestation.The principles are likely to say that the bulk of theadditional costs of forest conservation and sustainabledevelopment should come from industrialized countries,perhaps through a new global fund (35).The statement of principles may become the basisfor later negotiations on a forest convention. The globalforestry convention was proposed by the Group ofSeven—seven of the world's top economic powers—following its annual meeting in July 1990 (36). The FAOquickly offered to take the lead in drafting a proposedconvention. However, the idea lacked support in tropicalcountries, which saw it as an effort by northerncountries to control deforestation in the name of theglobal environment while sidestepping the issue oftheir own responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions.In particular, developing countries with major timberresources want new and additional funding fromindustrialized countries to pay for any requirementsimposed by a convention, whereas industrial countrieswant more specific assurances about what developingcountries will do in exchange for such assistance.More fundamentally, there are many schisms aboutwho should benefit from forests and general approachesto forest management. Partly this reflects thecomplexity of accommodating three levels of forestconstituents: environmentalists concerned with globalwarming and loss of biodiversity, tropical countriesconcerned with making both short- and long-term economicbenefits from their forests, and local interestssuch as forest dwellers, ranchers, and farmers.These three constituencies often have dissimilargoals. For example, national plans to increase revenuesfrom logging can result in a decline in biodiversity asnatural forest is turned into plantations. On the locallevel, forest dwellers and local farmers are demandinga voice in forest policy, usually insisting some of theeconomic benefits of the forest be retained locally,rather than going to timber companies.Agenda 21Agenda 21, the UNCED document that will map outhow to achieve global environmental objectives, alsowill contain an extensive section on forestry. A draftversion of the section contained a long list of initiatives,including strengthening forestry laws, plans, education,and research; beginning a massive globaleffort to expand the area under forest cover; improvingtechniques to sustainably manage forests; creatinga system to assess and monitor the state of forest resources;and expanding mechanisms for regional andinternational cooperation on forestry. The draft indicatedthat these new programs would require about$6.18 billion in international financing on concessionalterms, which is more than four times the $1.35 billionin official development assistance provided for forestryin 1990 (37).Tropical Forestry Action PlanThe Tropical Forestry Action Plan (TFAP) waslaunched in June 1985 to slow tropical deforestationand serve as a blueprint for forest management at thenational, regional, and global levels. The plan providesa forum for development agencies to coordinate theirforestry programs and a process for tropical countriesto formulate forestry plans that are then likely to befunded by the development agencies. By 1991,74 countrieswere participating, but critics charged that ratherthan halting deforestation the plans merely channeledmore money into logging projects. A1990 evaluationof TFAP said that "most national plans, based mainlyon forestry sector reviews, simply justify increased investmentin the forestry sector—a focus too narrow toadequately assess the root causes of deforestation,much less to affect them significantly." The evaluationfound that TFAP's effect on controlling deforestationwas "modest at best," and that its controlling institutions(principally FAO) had "lost sight of these concernsas the plan has been carried out" (38).TFAP has helped many countries analyze their forestresources in a more disciplined fashion, but thewidely held criticisms of the program's objectives,structure, and impact have cast a cloud over its future.New goals and objectives have been developed, but, inlate 1991, TFAP's future seemed to hinge on the uncertainprospects for creation of an independent consultativeforum to guide the program.FOCUS ON POLICIES TO MANAGETROPICAL FORESTSMany governments, environmental and other nongovernmentalorganizations, and international aid agenciesinsist that tropical forests must be managed on asustainable basis if their economic, social, and ecologicalbenefits are to continue into the future.Much of the current discussion on tropical forestmanagement concerns issues outside the forestry sector.Experts agree that world opinion and the forests'global and local significance have created a unique opportunityto explore the issues influencing sustainabilityand, ultimately, to take action. Action may be at thelocal and national levels or at the international level.Four major areas of discussion—areas in which actionsare being proposed—are described below:• Reforming national policies,• Creating new international agreements on trade, aid,and debt relief,• Recognizing the rights of indigenous peoples, and120World Resources 1992-93

Forests and Rangelands 8• Coordinating overlapping areas with climate changeand biodiversity.NATIONAL POLICY REFORMSNatural Resource AccountingNational resource management practices can promoteboth conservation and long-term sustainable economicdevelopment.By undervaluing intact natural forest, many currentnational policies destroy forests (39) (40). Typically, the"value" of forestland is confined to its timber or its agriculturalpotential when cleared. Nations hardpressedfor cash and struggling with burgeoning populationsare tempted almost irresistibly to mine the forestcapital—its trees—or convert it to a more "valuable"use.The value of the nontimber goods the forest provides—thefruits, nuts, resins, oils, subsistence food,and fuelwood—as well as the soil conservation, carbonstorage, and other intangible environmental servicesthe forest renders, are routinely ignored in economicassessments of forest use although studies showtheir value may far exceed that of timber (41). Theirloss remains hidden in national accounts because replacementis not given a monetary value. Part of thereason is that many of these goods and services do nothave conventional commodity value. They are eithernot sold in conventional markets because they are consumedfor subsistence or barter—or because they areconsidered public goods, as are most ecological services.In a related vein, the current and expected benefitsof converting a forest for other uses are often overstated.The benefits of logging, for example, do not reflectthe environmental and social costs of deforestation.In fact, researchers calculated that in a onehectarerainforest plot near the town of Iquitos in Peru,the net value of nonwood resources is 13 times morethan that of timber (42). Agriculture is often similarlyunprofitable because the soils underlying 95 percent ofthe remaining tropical rainforests are infertile and areeasily degraded (43). When the cost of infrastructure,tax credits, and production subsidies are added, the anticipatedeconomic benefits of forest conversion mayvanish (44).A case in point is the widespread conversion of forestto rangeland in the Amazon. Studies show that preservingforests and managing their extractive resources—collecting Brazil nuts and rubber latex in the wild,for example—provides short-term economic returnsper hectare that are comparable to cattle ranching. Becausethe number of people who benefit from a givenarea of extractive forest far exceeds the number of laborerswho work on a cleared-land cattle ranch, extractiveforests provide more widespread economicbenefits (45).The economic benefits of timber harvests may be furtheroverstated owing to governments' undervaluingthe forest ecosystem. Because royalties and taxes collectedfrom timber concessionaires in tropical nationsare set at uniformly low rates, government timber revenueis only a fraction of what it could be. For example,between 1979 and 1982, the Philippine Governmentearned $170 million from forest charges and exporttaxes. This sum represents only 11.4 percent of the potentialrevenues from forest exploitation. The balanceaccrued to concessionaires and timber operators (46).Moreover, harvest and processing subsidies oftencompound the loss of government timber revenue.Subsidies have been used to encourage the developmentof a domestic timber processing industry in Malaysiaand Ghana, among other nations, so that domesticproducers of sawnwood, plywood, and finishedproducts could capture the so-called "value added."The unfortunate result has often been the creation of inefficientfacilities that require more wood per unit ofproduction while yielding poor-quality products, bringinglow prices and lower government revenues (47).Correcting these policies involves revaluation of forestresources to recognize the full costs of their loss orreplacement. By treating forest resources and servicesas capital assets, governments can begin realistically toaccount for the depreciation of these assets through deforestation.A likely result of this change is that nationalbudgets will reflect the value of forests to thenation's well-being, abolish or modify questionablesubsidies, and charge timber harvesters rates that reflectthe true environmental and social costs and givecredit for sustainable harvest practices.Land OwnershipA second major area of proposed policy reform involvesland ownership, tenure, and distribution. Althoughmost forestlands may have been continuouslyoccupied or used by local peoples for millennia, theyare legally government controlled. Thus, forest residentson public domain land have no secured right ofuse or access (48).To make matters worse, many governments considertheir forestland "undeveloped" and will granttitle to forestland to those who will "improve" it, byclearing it for pasture or plantation agriculture, for example(49). However, traditional land uses, such asshifting cultivation and collecting nontimber forestproducts, do not usually qualify as improvement, andlocal residents can face eviction from lands long usedsustainably.Changes in tenure laws to grant title or legal userights to forest dwellers have advantages. They couldhelp local peoples retain their self-sufficiency and providean incentive for forest immigrants to invest inmore careful husbandry of their homesteads.A related issue is agrarian reform. One of the primaryforces pushing landless migrants into the forest—where their slash-and-burn clearing for subsistenceagriculture is now a leading cause of deforestationworldwide—is the inequitable distribution of agriculturalland (50). In non-Amazonian Brazil, 81 percent ofthe land is controlled by just 4.5 percent of the landowners,whose holdings are often vast and underused.Similar patterns prevail in other parts of Latin Amer-World Resources 1992-93121

8 Forests and Rangelandsica, Africa, and Southeast Asia (51). Land reform policies,therefore, are one of the most potent tools governmentspossess to stabilize forest use.Other Policy AreasOther areas of possible reform include removing theeconomic bias toward large-scale agriculture by providingcredit and markets to small-scale forest farmers.Government support of agroforestry would providetimber as well as food for sustenance and commercialneeds. In an effort to relieve urban crowdingand overpopulation, governments have resettled largenumbers of people to less densely populated areas.Such resettlement can lead to forest conversion for agriculture.Before proceeding with such schemes, governmentsmust carefully weigh long-term environmentalimpacts.INTERNATIONAL ACTIONSSeveral international actions to promote sustainabletropical forests that have surfaced in the last few yearsare discussed below.Adjust Trade StructuresThe current price of commercially traded raw logs andprocessed wood rarely, if ever, includes the environmentalor social costs of timber harvesting. Undervaluingthe resource often leads to overuse and depletion.For prices to reflect these hidden costs accurately, governmentscould use export or import taxes levied onthe value of the tropical wood product and other fiscaltools. In 1989, the United Kingdom Timber Trade Federationand the Nederlandse Houtbound jointly proposeda Tropical Timber Import Surcharge for theEuropean Community (EC). Levied at the point of import,revenues from the surcharge would be pooledand used to fund projects that promote sustainable forestmanagement (52). Interest in a surcharge was recentlyvoiced by several International Tropical TimberOrganization (ITTO) members, but some producercountries have resisted (53); it may lead to lower pricesfor producers, more waste in logging, and conversionof little-valued forests to agricultural uses (54).There are also calls for a tropical timber commodityagreement that, in addition to mandating the abovesurcharge, would establish timber import restrictionsbased on compliance with a comprehensive conservationand management program designed to achieve nonet loss of forests (55).Aside from the difficulties in negotiating an agreement,some experts warn that imposition of quotas orexport bans often has undesirable side effects. For example,when Thailand recently implemented a ban onlog exports to conserve its remaining forests, the blackmarket in illegal timber began to thrive. Legal timberoperators sold their equipment to profiteers overwhom no government control could be exercised (56).Even when illegal markets do not develop in responseto quotas or export bans, the economic repercussionsmay still be unfavorable. Log export bans, forexample, artificially force local timber prices down,thereby giving domestic processors a windfall. Theseprofits attract new firms, resulting in overcapacity, inefficiency,and waste (57).Creation of a labeling scheme to identify timbergrown and harvested sustainably is another possiblestrategy to use market forces to encourage sustainabletimber management. Public opinion surveys indicatethat consumers in importing countries would pay apremium for sustainably produced timber. A crediblecertification program is requisite to success of anysuch labeling plan (58).Elimination of protectionist tariffs imposed by majorimporters, such as Japan and the EC, on processed forestproducts would allow exporting countries to retainmore of the value of their timber, thus possibly relievingsome pressure to maintain current harvest levels (59).Many experts warn that any manipulation of globaltrade structures may run afoul of the General Agreementon Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the mechanismthat governs 90 percent of world trade (60) (61). UnderGATT terms, many of the trade restrictions being suggestedor any labeling program to certify sustainablyproduced timber would likely be disallowed. Legislatorsand environmental organizations from severalcountries are currently proposing that specific languageallowing such mechanisms—adopted for legitimateenvironmental purposes—should be included inGATT (62) (63).Decrease Demand for Tropical TimberA potent and direct means to slow logging and deforestationis to reduce the demand for tropical woodproducts. A commitment by Japan, the United States,and the EC—the three main consumers of tropical timberexports—to eliminate wasteful one-time uses oftropical woods would be an important component of"demand management." Each year, for example, 25 billionpairs of chopsticks and $2 billion worth of nonreusableconcrete forms are used and discarded. Substitutingreusable products whenever possible wouldcontribute to preserving tropical forests (64).Since 1988, the EC, the United States, and other timber-importingcountries have taken decisive steps to restrictwood imports. Some of these initiatives arehighly prescriptive, such as a U.S. effort to ban teakfrom Myanmar and Prince Charles' appeal to ban theimportation of unsustainably grown wood in the U.K.In Germany, however, measures are more sweeping,and in 1989, the government of the Federal Republicofficially stopped using tropical timber (65). But suchunilateral boycotts may have unintended negative effects.Although boycotts do indeed reduce the demandfor tropical timber, they also deflate not only the valueof the wood but of the forest as well. Thus forests mayin fact be converted more rapidly to higher-value purposes,such as export agriculture or cattle ranching (66).Use Debt to Finance ConservationTropical nations are presently struggling under a massivedebt load of some $800 billion, which drains theireconomic vitality and encourages them to liquidate122World Resources 1992-93

Forests and Rangelands 8their forest capital more quickly to raise foreign exchange(67). One-half the debt of developing countriesis owed by the 14 countries that account for more thantwo thirds of the global deforestation (68). Many conservationistshave come to view this situation as a uniqueopportunity to fund innovative strategies for savingtropical forests while reducing tropical nations' debtburdens.Among the proposed strategies are "debt-fornature"swaps, in which a given amount of debt is purchasedby a conservation organization from the developedcountry lender at a discount. The borrower thenredeems the obligation at face value in local currency,and the proceeds are used to fund conservation effortsin the debtor country (69). These swaps have been endorsedby world leaders, and both the United States andthe EC, whose banks hold much of the outstanding debt,have publicly advocated expanding their use (70) (71).Although debt-for-nature swaps have so far beenfairly small, their radical expansion as part of a largerNorth-South bargain is widely expected. Such a bargainis predicated on industrialized nations' realizationthat they must assume a fair, some say the major, financialburden of saving tropical forests if they expect toenjoy the global services these forests provide (72) (73).In 1990, the United States passed legislation that willhelp alleviate the burden of Latin American and Caribbeancountries' external debt. Under the farm bill(Food, Agriculture and Conservation Trade Act of1990), nearly $7 billion of outstanding commercialloans made by the Agency for International Developmentand the Food for Peace Program (P.L. 480) can bereduced. In addition, interest that accrues on the remainingbalances can be paid in local currency andused for environmental programs agreed to by thedebtor country. In 1991, the first debt reductions underthe farm bill were orchestrated for Bolivia, Chile, andJamaica (74). (For a list of debt-for-nature swaps, seeChapter 20, "Wildlife and Habitat," Table 20.6.)Expand and Reform Development AssistanceInternational lenders, such as the multilateral and bilateraldevelopment banks, significantly influence developmentdecisions in the Third World and thus have animportant role in ensuring that tropical nations' developmentis environmentally sound. But in the past, bilaterallenders have funded many projects that wereresponsible for massive deforestation, including constructionof jungle highways and hydroelectric plantsand development of plantations.On the positive side, some of these organizations arerequiring increasingly stringent environmental impactassessments for their projects and are expanding thescope of their loan portfolios to include policy and institutionalreform, land use planning, research onagroforestry and silviculture, and training (75) (76). Inlight of the many needs, however, the level of fundingfor these kinds of activities must grow.The environmental policies of these institutions havebeen formulated in the past several years, but there arestill notable lapses, as with a road that the African DevelopmentBank plans to fund that will run throughone of the Ivory Coast's last rainforest tracts (77).Transfer Funds from North to SouthLeaders of both the industrialized and developingcountries are now more often discussing global initiativesthat would benefit countries in both the Northand the South. Many of the proposals hinge on industrializedcountries' providing new financial support todeveloping countries.One such dialogue among opinion leaders from theAmericas resulted in their agreement on eight new initiativesembodied in the Compact for a New World (78).The forestry initiative calls for the United States, Canada,Argentina, and Chile to stop overcutting theirtemperate forests, move quickly to sustainable forestryon public and private lands (including ending subsidizedtimber cutting), and protect ancient forest reservesin the Pacific Northwest region of the UnitedStates and Canada. Tropical forest countries wouldseek to halt, and then reverse, net forest loss by reformingpolicies that further deforestation, promoting afforestationand sustainable forest management, andcreating economic opportunities that relieve pressureson forest resources.Recognizing that preserving tropical forests is vital,the Compact proposes that the United States and Canadaprovide major support for national forestry plansand support research on the underlying causes of deforestation(e.g., poverty, inequitable land distribution,population growth, and the need to service internationaldebt) (79).RESPECTING THE RIGHTS OF LOCAL PEOPLESLocal forest dwellers are most vulnerable to the impactsof forest destruction. These people are typicallyunrepresented when land-use decisions are made regardingtheir homelands, although the results of thosedecisions frequently jeopardize their cultural and economicsurvival. Several previously proposed Amazonianhydroelectric projects, for example, would haveflooded 26,000 square kilometers of pristine forest (80).In the past few years, a surge of activism has sweptmany of these indigenous peoples' groups, resulting inwell-publicized public actions against logging companiesand development projects threatening traditionalforest holdings (81) (82). (See Chapter 14, "Policies andInstitutions.") In Altamira, Brazil, for example, some600 people representing indigenous groups rallied toblock Xingu River dam construction (83). And in Malaysia,native Penan have erected more than three dozenblockades in the past four years to protect their ancestrallands from logging (84). The message from these actionsis clear: local peoples must be a part of anyattempt to manage their forests.Representatives of many local peoples state that theymust have a predominant and substantive voice, notobserver status and after-the-fact consultation, in decisionsto exploit or develop their traditional domains.Often their struggle to be heard coincides with effortsto gain legal title to their ancestral lands—or to expandWorld Resources 1992-93123

8 Forests and RangelandsBox 8.4 Peru's HIFCO Project: Sustainable Agroforestry for Cultural SurvivalLocated amidst abandoned farms and degradedpastures, the HIFCO project—theFamily/Community Integrated GardenProject (Huerto Integral Familiar Comunal)—near Pucallpa in Peru's Amazon is a significantexample of how sustainable forestpractices can contribute to both ecologicalrestoration and cultural preservation (i).When a road was opened from Lima toPucallpa in the mid-1960s, Pucallpa areaforests were rapidly and extensively depletedthrough colonization and conversionto crop and pastureland. In the process,the indigenous peoples lost access totheir traditional lands. By 1985, whenHIFCO began, the area was dominated bylow-productivity pastures and degradedfarmlands heavily laced with pesticide residues.The HIFCO experiment arose in responseto the need for dependable foodproduction on degraded sites and the desireof the local Shipibo Indians to restoretheir homeland. Under the aegis ofAIDESEP, the Interethnic Association forDevelopment of the Peruvian Jungle, theparent body representing 300,000 indigenousAmazonian peoples from 60 ethnicgroups, an 11-hectare abandoned cattlepasture was leased, and a sustainablefarming system using intercropping andinfiltration ditches was established.Although initial soil conditions werepoor (soil pH was 3.5, too acidic for mostcrops), a rigorous program of soil improvementbegan. Organic matter, such as leaflitter and animal wastes added to specialraised beds, transformed the abandonedpasture into a highly productive smallfarm. By 1990,4.5 hectares had been revitalizedand brought under intensive cultivation,with a soil pH of 5.2; crop yieldsexceeded those on surrounding "modern"farms, even without artificial fertilizers orpesticides.HIFCO farmers use a novel combinationof traditional and modern agriculturalpractices to work their land. Learningfrom natural forest species diversity, theyrejected the monoculture of modern agribusinessand planted more than 40 speciesof annuals and perennials, which are surroundedby a variety of tree species.Leguminous plants and green mulchesare used extensively throughout the gardenas a source of nitrogen, and the treesnot only produce fruits and timber butsupport vine crops, allowing more efficientuse of garden space. The area aroundthe garden is being replanted with some60 species of trees.Between the raised beds, infiltrationditches act as small reservoirs for rainwater,allowing continued crop productionthrough the three-month dry season.In addition, fish raised in these reservoirsprovide a protein supplement to the farmers'diet. This year-round production capability,which other local farms lack, providesboth food and income security forHIFCO farm families; they no longer needto work off-farm during the dry season.In addition to the raised-bed gardeningused to rehabilitate degraded land,HIFCO farmers also employ a modified"slash-and-burn" system in areas whereforest canopy still remains. In this traditionallybased system, 1 hectare in the centerof a 6-hectare forest plot is burned in acircular pattern for intensive cultivation.Intercropping, composting, and animalmanures provide nutrients; in addition,some leaf litter is collected on the surrounding5 hectares for use as mulch onthe central plot when productivity beginsto decline.The burned plot is planted in concentricrings, with vegetables and household foodcrops in the center, then staple crops, cashcrops, fruit trees, and timber trees the outermostring. This planting arrangementcreates a tiered effect that maximizes useof available light, with the lowest-growingplants in the center and the tallest on theperiphery.HIFCO's production is not limited toplants. Fish ponds and guinea pigs, geese,ducks, guinea hens, and other small farmanimals provide protein and are an incidentalsource of fertilizer. HIFCO's holistic approachextends to pest control throughinterplanting insect-repellant plant varieties,such as marigolds and sesame, andusing a home-brewed organic pesticide.The HIFCO project also includes a crop improvementprogram, complete with a seedbank and a program of field trials.Even while HIFCO works to develop asustainable source of food and incomewithin the forest setting, it also sustains indigenousculture throughout Peru's Amazon.Since its second year of operation,HIFCO has been managed and staffed byindigenous people, with outreach to theentire AIDESEP confederacy its primarygoal.The HIFCO farm is a training center forapprentices from AIDESEP's 28 memberfederations who take part in a comprehensive3-month course in sustainable agroforestrybased on traditional models enhancedby modern innovations. AIDESEP thenpays apprentices who finish the courseone year's stipend to promote the HIFCOmodel in their own communities.Although HIFCO has met with considerablesuccess so far, it faces formidable challenges,particularly with regard to outreach.Apprentices frequently find theircommunities reluctant to support HIFCOstylepractices, and start-up funds and continuedfield assistance from HIFCO advisersare often limiting factors. Nonetheless,the HIFCO experiment is one modelfor restoring the ecological viability of denudedforest lands and the cultural integrityof those who make the forest theirhome.References and Notes1. This account is drawn from: BruceCabarle, "Ecofarming in the Peruvian Amazon:An Indigenous Response," World ResourcesInstitute trip report, March 1991,pp. 1-8; Bruce Cabarle, Associate, Forestryand Land Use Program, World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1990 (personalcommunication); and Elizabeth Darby Junkin,"The Monte: Why the Indigenous Peoplesof the Amazon Basin Want to Be Partof Saving the World's Largest Rainforest,"Buzzworm: the Environmental Journal, Vol. 2,No. 4 (1990), p. 36.the often restricted holdings they have been granted—so that they have legal standing in their bid to preventdestruction of their forests (85) (86).The lack of local groups participating in developmentdecisionmaking is exemplified by their conspicuousabsence from ITTO and the forest planning organizedunder the Tropical Forestry Action Plan (TFAP).Recent critiques of the plan signal that this major TFAPshortcoming will inevitably weaken the national forestplans that result (87) (88).Many local groups also complain that environmentalgroups working to prevent deforestation and preservebiodiversity in the tropics also exclude themfrom consideration in their rush to conserve. At aspring 1990 meeting in Peru between leaders of Coordinadorade las Organizaciones Indigenas de la CuencaAmazonica (COICA)—the umbrella organization representing1.2 million local peoples in the Amazon basin—and representatives of major environmental organizations,local leaders reminded environmentalists thatthey do not necessarily speak for the interests of alllocal peoples (89) (90).Contention especially surrounded the issue of debtfor-natureswaps, which, so far, have been negotiatedwith little input from local groups. These swaps, thegroups believe, have harmed their cause in some cases124World Resources 1992-93

Forests and Rangelands 8because parkland conservation often excludes traditionallocal groups' land uses. The groups believe theyshould be major participants in negotiating any futureswaps and that the swaps should explicitly enhancetheir territorial claims and recognize their role in sustainableforest management (91).COICA welcomed an alliance with environmentalgroups while making its position clear: "The most effectivedefense of the Amazonian Biosphere is the recognitionand defense of the territories of the region'sIndigenous Peoples and the promotion of their modelsfor living within that biosphere and for managing itsresources in a sustainable way" (92). (See Box 8.4.)FORESTS, CLIMATE CHANGE, ANDBIODIVERSITYThese three issues overlap; their convergence point isthe forest's dual role as habitat and carbon sink.Because tropical and temperate forests are the terrestrialbiomes with the most biomass, they have the highestpotential for carbon storage as wood fiber and leafcanopy. At the same time, the many levels of the forestcanopy, with their varying light intensities and moisturelevels, allow a multitude of habitats to coexist in asmall area, creating the most favorable conditions forbiodiversity.Preserving forests thus contributes to both climatestability and biodiversity goals. Yet other forest valuesare independent of these—namely, as human habitatand repository of natural resources. Although all thesevalues may be present together in the intact forest, differentmanagement strategies emphasize one over theothers.Fortunately, points for compromise may not be hardto find among these different visions of forest use. Forexample, it is now thought that stabilizing carbonemissions would best be served through minimizationof further primary forest loss; deforestation itself mayaccount for as much as one quarter the global carbonreleased each year (93). If carbon sink plantations aredeemed a good option to complement this "no netloss" strategy, they could be located on degraded land.Their establishment would then also work to relievepressure on natural forests.Similarly, management schemes such as extractivereserves can preserve important habitat values whilestill providing subsistence and commodity values tohuman populations. Even more intensive forest uses,such as agroforestry systems, can be compatible withmany biodiversity conservation goals, especially whenthe uses are part of an integrated land use plan that includesundisturbed land.Conditions and Trends was written by Mary Paden, World Resourcesmanaging editor and Focus On Policies to Conserve TropicalForests by Gregory Mock, a California-based writer. RobertLivernash, World Resources senior editor, also contributed.References and Notes1. L.R. Oldeman, V.W.P. van Engelen, andJ.H.M. Pulles, "The Extent of Human-InducedSoil Degradation," Annex 5 of L.R.Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling, and W.G.Sombroek, World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An ExplanatoryNote, rev. 2d ed. (International Soil Referenceand Information Centre, Wageningen,the Netherlands, 1990), Table 7. "Vegetatedsurface" refers to the Earth's total land surfaceof 13 billion hectares less 1.5 billionhectares of "wasteland/' or 11.5 billion hectares.Wasteland is defined as areas that "historicor recent natural processes haveturned [into] terrains without appreciablevegetative cover or agricultural potential."Six types of wasteland are included: activedunes, salt flats, rock outcrops, deserts, icecaps, and arid mountain regions.2. The definition of wasteland is taken fromL.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling, and W.G.Sombroek, World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An ExplanatoryNote, rev. 2d ed. (International Soil Referenceand Information Centre, Wageningen,the Netherlands, 1990), p. 14.3. The calculations for total land and wastelandare taken from L.R. Oldeman, V.W.P.van Engelen, and J.H.M. Pulles, "The Extentof Human-Induced Soil Degradation,"Annex 5 of L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling,and W.G. Sombroek, World Map of theStatus of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: AnExplanatory Note, rev. 2d ed. (InternationalSoil Reference and Information Centre,Wageningen, the Netherlands, 1990),Table 7.4. L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling, and W.G.Sombroek, World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An ExplanatoryNote, rev. 2d ed. (International Soil Referenceand Information Centre, Wageningen,the Netherlands, 1990), pp. 14-15.5. L.R. Oldeman, V.W.P. van Engelen, andJ.H.M. Pulles, "The Extent of Human-InducedSoil Degradation," Annex 5 of L.R.Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling, and W.G.Sombroek, World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An ExplanatoryNote, rev. 2d ed. (International Soil Referenceand Information Centre, Wageningen,the Netherlands, 1990), Table 7.6. Op. cit. 4, p. 2.7. "Ad-hoc Consultation Meeting Assessmentof Global Desertification: Status and Methodologies,"Desertification Bulletin (UnitedNations Environment Programme), No. 18(1990), p. 26.8. L.R. Oldeman, Program and Project Division,International Soil Reference and InformationCentre, Wageningen, the Netherlands,1991 (personal communication).9. Ibid.10. Richard W. Arnold, Director, Soil Survey Division,U.S. Department of Agriculture,Washington D.C., 1991 (personal communication).11. Op. cit. 4, p. 20.12. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA),Soil Conservation Service, Summary Report:1987 National Resources Inventory, StatisticalBulletin No. 790 (USDA, Washington, D.C.,1989), Table 9.13. L.R. Oldeman, ed., Guidelines for General Assessmentof the Status of Human-Induced SoilDegradation (International Soil Referenceand Information Centre, Wageningen, theNetherlands, 1988), p. 2.14. Hid., p. 6.15. Op. cit. 5, p. 5.16. Op. cit. 8.17. Op. cit. 5, pp. 1-4.18. Op. cit. 5, p. 5.19. Op. cit. 5, p. 6.20. Op. cit. 5, p. 5.21. Op. cit. 5, p. 6.22. Op. cit. 5, p. 7.23. Paul Faeth, Robert Repetto, Kim Kroll, QiDai, and Glenn Helmers, Paying the FarmBill (World Resources Institute, WashingtonD.C., 1991), pp. 35-36.24. Pierre R. Crosson, Resources for the Future,Washington, D.C., "Future Economic andEnvironmental Costs," in The Cropland Crisis:Myth or Reality? Pierre R. Crosson, ed.(Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore,1982), p. 184.25. Forest Resources Assessment 1990 Project,Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations, "Second Interim Report onthe State of Tropical Forests," paper presentedat the 10th World Forestry Congress,Paris, September 1991 (rev. October 15,1991).World Resources 1992-93125

8 Forests and Rangelands26. World Resources Institute in collaborationwith the United Nations Environment Programmeand United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, World Resources 1990-91 (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1990),p. 102.27. Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations, "Global Tropical DeforestationAccelerating: Coordinated Action Keyto Control," September 8,1991 (press release).28. David S. Wilcove, Charles H. McLellan andAndrew P. Dobson, "Habitat Fragmentationin the Temperate Zone," in Conservation Biology:The Science of Scarcity and Diversity, MichaelE. Sonle, ed. (Sinauer Associates, Inc.,Boston, Massachusetts, 1986), pp. 237-256.29. T.E. Lovejoy, R.O. Bierregaard, A.B. Rylandset al., "Edge and Other Effects of Isolationon Amazon Forest Fragments," inConservation Biology: The Science of Scarcityand Diversity, Michael E. Sonle, ed. (SinauerAssociates, Inc., Boston, Massachusetts,1986), pp. 257-285.30. Op. cit. 25.31. Chapter 19, "Forests and Rangelands,"Table 19.1.32. G. Meira, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacias,Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo,1991, (personal communication).33. K.D. Singh, Project Coordinator, Forest ResourcesAssessment 1990 Project, Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations,Rome, 1991 (personal communication).34. Op. cit. 32.35. Preparatory Committee for the United NationsConference on Environment and Development,"Land Resources: Deforestation,"draft statement of principles preparedfor Working Group I, Third Session, (Geneva,August 12-September 4,1991).36. The Office of the Press Secretary, The WhiteHouse, "Proposed Global Forests Convention,"July 11,1990 (press release).37. United Nations Conference on Environmentand Development (UNCED), "Conservationand Development of Forests: Options forAgenda 21," third draft (October 29,1991).38. Robert Winterbottom, Taking Stock: The TropicalForestry Action Plan After Five Years(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1990), pp. 21-24.39. Kenton R. Miller, Walter V. Reid, andCharles V. Barber, "Deforestation and SpeciesLoss: Responding to the Crisis," in Preservingthe Global Environment: The Challengeof Shared Leadership, Jessica TuchmanMathews, ed. (W.W. Norton & Co., NewYork, 1991), pp. 91-93.40. Robert Repetto, The Forest For the Trees? GovernmentPolicies and the Misuse of Forest Resources(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1988), p. 13.41. Robert Repetto, "Deforestation in the Tropics,"Scientific American, Vol. 262, No. 4(1990), p. 38.42. Charles M. Peters, Alwyn H. Gentry, andRobert O. Mendelsohn, "Valuation of anAmazonian Rainforest," Nature, Vol. 339(June 1989), pp. 655-656.43. Op. cit. 39, pp. 92-93.44. John O. Browder, "Public Policy and Deforestationin the Brazilian Amazon," in PublicPolicies and the Misuse of Forest Resources,Robert Repetto and Malcolm Gillis, eds.(Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge,U.K., 1988), pp. 247-289.45. James LaFleur, Manager, Tropic InternationalLtda. (Ecotec), Brazil, 1991 (personalcommunication).46. Eufresina L. Boado, "Incentive Policies andForest Use in the Philippines," in Public Policiesand the Misuse of Forest Resources, RobertRepetto and Malcolm Gillis, eds. (Press Syndicateof the University of Cambridge, U.K.,1988), pp. 184-185.47. Clark S. Binkley and Jeffrey R. Vincent, "Forest-BasedIndustrialization: A Dynamic Perspective,"The World Bank Forest PolicyIssues Paper, 1990, pp. 28-51.48. Owen J. Lynch, Whither the People?" Demographic,Tenurial, and Agricultural Aspects ofthe Tropical Forestry Action Plan (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1990),p. 9.49. Douglas Southgate, "The Causes of LandDegradation along 'Spontaneously' ExpandingAgricultural Frontiers in the ThirdWorld," Land Economics, Vol. 66, No. 1(1990), p. 93.50. Norman Myers, "The World's Forests andHuman Populations: The Environmental Interconnections,"in Resources, Environment,and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Options,Kingsley Davis and Mikhail S. Bernstam,eds., Supplement to Population andDevelopment Review, Vol. 16 (Oxford UniversityPress and Population Council Inc., NewYork, 1991), p. 240.51. Judith Gradwohl and Russell Greenberg,Saving the Tropical Forests (Earthscan PublicationsLtd., London, 1988), pp. 41-42.52. Willem Keddeman, Stef Meijs, and Koosvan Dijken, An Import Surcharge on the Importof Tropical Timber in the European Community(Netherlands Economic Institute, TheHague, 1989).53. Senator John Heinz, Globe Working Group onTropical Forests: Action Plan Report, reportgiven to the Plenary Session of the GlobalLegislators Organization for a Balanced Environment,Nov. 15,1990, Washington,D.C., p. 4.54. Marc J. Dourojeanni, Chief, EnvironmentalProtection Division, Inter-American DevelopmentBank, Washington, D.C., 1991 (personalcommunication).55. Charles Arden-Clarke, "Conservation andSustainable Management of Tropical Forests:The Role of ITTO and GATT," WorldWildlife Fund Discussion Paper, Washington,D.C., 1990, p. 13.56. Op. cit. 53, pp. 4-6.57. Op. cit. 47, pp. 29-38.58. Op. cit. 55, pp. 9-10.59. Subgroup on International Trade and ResourceFlows, "International Trade andResource Flows Effects on Forests Policy Optionsfor a World Forest Convention," paperprepared for the Environmental and EnergyStudy Institute World Forest AgreementWorking Group, Washington, D.C., 1990, p. 3.60. Steven Shrybman, "International Trade andthe Environment: An Environmental Assessmentof the General Agreement on Tariffsand Trade," The Ecoiogtst, Vol. 20, No. 1(1990), pp. 30-34.61. Op. cit. 55, pp. 1-10.62. Op. cit. 60.63. Op. cit. 55, pp. 9-10.64. Robert J. A. Goodland, Emmanuel O. Asibey,Jan C. Post et al., "Tropical Moist ForestManagement: The Urgency of Transitionto Sustainability," Environmental Conservation,Vol. 17, No. 4 (1990), p. 314.65. Ibid., p. 304.66. Andre Carothers, "Defenders of the Forest,"Greenpeace, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1990), p. 11.67. Op. cit. 50, p. 244.68. James Gustave Speth, "Coming to Terms:Toward a North-South Bargain for the Environment,"in WRI Issues and Ideas (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1990),p. 4.69. J.A. McNeely, K.R. Miller, W.V. Reid, R.A.Mittermeier, and T.B. Werner, Conservingthe World's Biodiversity (International Unionfor Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources,World Resources Institute, ConservationInternational, World Wildlife Fund-US, and The World Bank, Gland, Switzerland,1990), p. 124.70. Patti Petesch, "Tropical Forests: Conservationwith Development?" Policy Focus, No. 4(Overseas Development Council, 1990), p. 10.71. Reuters News Service, "Loggers, RanchersRavish Rain Forests," Environment Week,Vol. 3, No. 27 (1990), p. 6.72. Op. cit. 50, pp. 244-246.73. Op. cit. 69, p. 89.74. Nina M. Serafino and Betsy A. Cody, "TheEnterprise for the Americas Initiative: Issuesfor Congress," CRS Issues Brief (.Library ofCongress, Washington, D.C., September 10,1991), pp. 1-4.75. The World Bank, Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentDepartment, "Forest PolicyPaper," Washington, D.C., July 1991.76. The Inter-American Development Bank,"Foreign Policy," Washington, D.C., March1991.77. Op. cit. 41, p. 42.78. The New World Dialogue on Environmentand Development in the Western Hemisphere,Compact for a New World: An OpenLetter to the Heads of State and Governmentand Legislators of the Americas (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1991).79. ft!

9. Wildlife and HabitatBiological diversity—the variety among living organismsand the ecological communities they inhabit (seeBox 9.1)—is more threatened now than at any time inthe past 65 million years. Tropical deforestation is themain force behind this crisis, but the destruction ofwetlands, coral reefs, and temperate forests also playsan important role. Continued loss or degradation ofhabitats at the present rate could doom up to 15 percentof the Earth's species over the next quarter century.Besides its profound ethical and aestheticimplications, such losses have severe economic costs.As habitats are fragmented, altered, or destroyed, theyalso lose their ability to provide such "ecosystem services"as purifying water, regenerating soil, protectingwatersheds, regulating temperature, recycling nutrientsand wastes, and maintaining the atmosphere. Asplants and animals disappear, or their genetic diversityis reduced, so too do potential advances in medicineand agriculture.The genes, species, ecosystems, and human knowledgethat are being lost represent a living library of optionsfor adapting to local and global change. Not onlyare more species being sentenced to extinction, but thereduction and fragmentation of habitats prevents theevolution of new species. And as habitats and speciesare destroyed, the human cultures that have evolvedas unique adaptations are often lost as well. Humansas well as other species are the losers.A variety of techniques—including parks, refuges,zoos, and seed banks—have been used in the past withvarying degrees of success to try to preserve wildlifeand their habitats. Protected areas, zoos, and seedbanks all have an important role in conservation. However,analysis of the root causes of biodiversity lossshows that new approaches are also needed. Becausethe root causes are deeply imbedded in modern economicand social development, conservation effortsmust expand to political and economic arenas.CONDITIONS AND TRENDSGlobal TrendsSPECIES AND HABITAT LOSSSpeciesThe total number of species is not known. Biologists estimatethat there are between 5 million and 30 millionspecies, with a best estimate of about 10 million. Mostof them are inconspicuous organisms such as microbes,insects, and tiny sea creatures. Only 1.4 million speciesWorld Resources 1992-93127

9 Wildlife and HabitatBox 9.1 The Diversity of LifeBiological diversity is an umbrella termfor the degree of nature's variety. It can bedivided into three hierarchical categories—genes, species, and ecosystems—that describequite different aspects of livingsystems and that scientists measure in differentways.Genetic diversity refers to the variationof genes within a species. This covers distinctpopulations of the same species (suchas the thousands of traditional rice varietiesin India) or genetic variation within apopulation (which is very high among Indianrhinos, for example, but very lowamong cheetahs). Until recently, measurementsof genetic diversity were appliedmainly to domesticated species and populationsheld in zoos or botanic gardens,but the techniques are increasingly beingapplied to wild species.Species diversity refers to the variety ofspecies within a region. There are manydifferent ways of measuring species diversity,and scientists have not settled on asingle best method. The number of speciesin a region—its species "richness"—isoften used as a measure of species diversity,but a more precise measurement,"taxonomic diversity," takes into accounthow closely related species are to eachother. For example, an island with twospecies of birds and one species of lizardhas greater taxonomic diversity than an islandwith three species of birds but no lizards.Thus, even though there may bemore species of beetles on Earth than allother species combined, they do not accountfor the greater part of species diversitybecause they are so closely related.Similarly, many more species live on landthan in the sea, but terrestrial species aremore closely related to each other thanocean species are, so diversity is higher inmarine ecosystems than a strict count ofspecies would suggest.Ecosystem diversity is harder to measurethan species or genetic diversity becausethe "boundaries" of ecosystems andcommunities—associations of species—are elusive. Nevertheless, as long as a consistentset of criteria are used to definecommunities and ecosystems, their numberand distribution can be measured.Until now, such schemes have been appliedmainly at national and subnationallevels, although some coarse global classificationshave been made.Besides ecosystem diversity, many otherexpressions of biodiversity can be important.These include the relative abundanceof species, the age structure of populations,the pattern of communities in a region,changes in community compositionand structure through time, and even suchecological processes as predation, parasitism,and mutualism. More generally, tomeet specific management or policy goals,it is often important to examine not onlycompositional diversity—genes, species,and ecosystems—but also diversity in ecosystemstructure and function.Human cultural diversity could also beconsidered part of biodiversity. Like geneticor species diversity, some attributesof human cultures (say, nomadism or shiftingcultivation) represent "solutions" tothe problems of survival in particular environments.And, like other aspects ofbiodiversity, cultural diversity helps peopleadapt to changing conditions. Culturaldiversity is manifested by diversity in language,religious beliefs, land managementpractices, art, music, social structure, cropselection, diet, and any number of other attributesof human society.Source: World Resources Institute, WorldConservation Union, and United NationsEnvironment Programme, in consultationwith the Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations and the UnitedNations Education, Scientific and CulturalOrganization, Global Biodiversity Strategy(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., forthcoming).have even been named by taxonomists (l) (2). Manyothers may have local names and uses, but this knowledgeis dying out as well (3).Because the total number of species is unknown, andbecause many species become extinct without beingcataloged, it is difficult to calculate the exact numberof species that will become extinct. Most estimates arebased on "species area curves," a calculation based onthe relationship between the size of an area, the numberof known species it holds, and, thus, the percentageof species that will be lost if a certain amount ofhabitat is destroyed. A recent analysis of tropical foresthabitat (which contains 50-90 percent of the world'sspecies) concluded that at current rates of deforestation,4 to 8 percent of rainforest species would be sentencedto extinction by 2015 and 17-35 percent by2040. Assuming a conservative global total of 10 millionspecies, 20 to 75 species per day would be condemnedby 2040. This rate may seem extraordinarilyhigh, but humans are largely unaware of most species.Large, visible species of mammals, birds, and plantsmake up fewer than 5 percent of the world's species(4). Continued loss of species at this rate could doomup to 15 percent of Earth's species over the next 25years (5).Being "sentenced to extinction" is not the same as becomingextinct, but it does mean that a species is likelyto lose the ability to breed and reproduce into the future.Although the species may continue for a few generationsin some areas, it lacks the habitat, foodsources, or breeding conditions that would ensure a viablepopulation. However, extraordinary efforts to restorehabitat and employ captive breeding programsmay save some species. The Arabian oryx, for example,was reintroduced on that peninsula in the early1980s and is showing signs of establishing and breedinghealthy populations (6).Another way to gauge the status of species is to lookat the proportion that are threatened, either globally ornationally, and whose populations are decreasing. Inmany countries, a sizeable percentage of the bird ormammal populations are threatened at the globallevel, and even more are threatened at the nationallevel. (See Table 9.1.) The status of species at the nationallevel often has the greatest influence on actionstaken in that particular country.HabitatSince the advent of agriculture some 12,000 years ago,more and more wildlife habitat has been cleared toprovide farmland, rangeland, and human and industrialsettlements. Figure 9.1 shows the percent of grasslandsand savannahs lost since preagricultural times inselected countries; most habitats have been reduced toless than half their preagricultural extent (7). This trendaccelerated significantly in the 20th Century as humanpopulation more than tripled (8). Some industrialized128World Resources 1992-93

Table 9.1 Threatened Bird and Mammal Species in SelectedA. Bird SpeciesDenmarkFinlandFranceItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPortugalUnited KingdomUnited StatesB. Mammal SpeciesDenmarkFinlandFranceItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPortugalUnited KingdomUnited StatesKnown1902323424196682572822253132331,090Known4962113971886069548277466Number of Bird SpeciesGloballyThreatened161221193113268182243NationallyThreatened331413660548516231243579Number of Mammal SpeciesGloballyThreatened136352136221NationallyThreatened14759131429144422449With DecreasingPopulationsOECD CountriesGloballyThreatened668.4245.277XX6.14.54.6525.1169.2123.6675.8239.4X3.9GloballyThreatened162.0114.8305.335 3.1X2.7283.321 1.43249XWith DecreasingPopulations5.67.32.64.5Wildlife and Habitat 9Percent of Bird SpeciesNationallyThreatened17.46.039.814.38.133.15.710.239.615.07.2Percent of Mammal SpeciesNationallyThreatenedSources:1. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Environmental Data Compendium 1991 (OECD, Paris, 1991), p. 114.2. Chapter 20, "Wildlife and Habitat," Table 20.4.Note: X = not available.28.611.352.213.47.448.320.37.451.231.210.5With DecreasingPopulations34.710.322.5XX20.25.75.321.49.9XWith DecreasingPopulations32.717.726.536.1X46.730.45.629.311.7Xcountries have lost substantial portions of their wetlandsjust in the past few decades. (See Figure 9.2.) Asstartling as these habitat loss figures are, they do notconsider the effects of habitat fragmentation on wildlifeor ecosystems, a topic of increasing interest amongecologists.Habitat loss poses a major threat to biodiversity, butother threats include overexploitation of plant and ani-Figure 9.1 Percentage of Grasslands andSavannah Lost Since Preagricultural Times,Selected CountriesFigure 9.2 Wetland Loss in SelectedIndustrialized Countries, 1950-80(percent lost)100-(percent lost)100 -United New Madagascar ChadStates Zealand Burundi Myanmar BotswanaSource: World Resources Institute, in collaboration with the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme and the United Nations Development Programme,World Resources 1990-91 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1990),Table 20.4, pp. 306-307.Germany Netherlands Finland United States Sweden(Fed Rep)Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),OECD Environmental Data Compendium 1991 (OECD, Paris, 1991), p. 75.World Resources 1992-93129

9 Wildlife and HabitatBox 9.2 Looking at Biodiversity Through Three LensesBecause its issues are complex and intertwined,it is useful to view biodiversitythrough three lenses—global, national,and local. The global perspective, for example,.givesan overview of patternsaround the world, as well as the "hotspots" where biodiversity is richest ormost threatened. From this global point ofview, biodiversity should be preserved asthe common heritage of all humans, andall species therefore have a right to exist0). The global lens is most often used bynorthern countries looking at biodiversityloss in tropical countries; giving fundingpriority to hot spots stresses the need toconserve as much biodiversity as possiblewith limited resources.From the national perspective, however,it may be more important to conserve asmany native species within a nation's bordersas possible. In countries with low bioticdiversity, the loss of even a few speciescould represent a large loss of diversity.For example, Table 9.1 shows that alarge percentage of the bird and mammalspecies in several European countries arethreatened within national boundaries,though only a few are threatened in all regionswhere they are found throughoutthe world. Through a national lens, itwould be more important to establishgood conservation practices in each country,rather than focusing on a few scatteredinternational habitats.The national lens can also reveal moreutilitarian concerns. Biodiversity can beviewed as a national asset, with economicand cultural as well as environmental value.Nations seek to benefit from biodiversitythrough increased living standards,crop production, and tourism revenues.Tropical countries also expect to share theprofit from medicines, foods, cosmetics, orother products developed from their nativeplants. Nations may therefore seek tocontrol local actions, such as poaching orfreelance mining, that may adversely affectbiodiversity.The local lens provides an even morepractical view of biodiversity. Local peopleoften derive direct benefits from plant,crop, and wildlife species. Many local culturesdepend on the plants and animalsthey have lived with, studied, and domesticated.Yet local people must strugglewith national or international forces forcontrol of biological resources: Because theeconomic benefits of natural resourcesoften accrue to influential business or governmentcoffers without trickling down tothe local level, local people not only missthe benefits of "development" but mayalso lose access to resources on whichtheir health and livelihoods depend.References and Notes1. "The World Charter for Nature," as citedin Jeffrey A. McNeely, Kenton R. Miller,Walter V. Reid et ah, Conserving the World'sBiological Diversity (International Union forConservation of Nature and Natural Resources,Gland Switzerland, 1990), pp. 134-136.mal species; pollution of soil, water, and atmosphere;introduction of nonnative species; industrial agricultureand forestry; and global climate change. A few examplesillustrate how these threats affect biodiversity.The accidental introduction of the zebra mussel intothe Great Lakes of North America from the CaspianSea has led to fouling of municipal and industrialwater intake systems, disruption of shipping, and hassignificantly reduced the phytoplankton population—an important link in the food chain of the GreatLakes—thereby threatening native fish species (9). InIndia, as in many other places, local women managethe forest as a source of food, fuel, and medicines thatprovide nourishment and income for their families.These "minor forest products" also provide importantexport earnings for the national economy. Yet whenforests disappear, so too does this important componentof the family and national economies (10).AREAS OF HIGH DIVERSITYThe diversity of life, and often the threats to its survival,is not evenly distributed around the world.Some habitats have more species or greater geneticvariability than others. In general, temperate regionstend to have large populations of a small number ofspecies, while areas in or near the tropics tend to havea greater number of species with smaller individualpopulations. Endemic species (those that are limited toa certain area) and tropical species (which tend to havesmaller, localized populations) are at greater risk of extinctionfrom habitat destruction, pollution, overexploitation,or competition with introduced species (11).Globally, the countries with the most species of vascularplants are in the neotropics (Central and SouthAmerica) and in Southeast Asia, where most of theworld's rainforests are located (12). Africa has fewerspecies in the dry countries surrounding the Saharaand more species in the southern and eastern countries,which have more rainfall. Northern countriessuch as Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and theU.S.S.R., and southern temperate countries such asChile and Argentina, have comparatively few species.One approach to conservation has been to identifyareas as global priorities for immediate action becausethey are species-rich and also threatened. Fourteen ofthe 18 "hot spots" thus defined are in the tropics (13).This global approach—saving as many species as possible—hasbeen criticized because of the need to encouragepractices that conserve biodiversity in allcountries (14). (See Box 9.2.) Various global, national,and local approaches to conservation are discussedlater in this chapter.STATUS OF SELECTED HABITATSTropical ForestsTropical forests are richer in species than any other terrestrialhabitat. Closed tropical forests, as mentionedabove, contain at least 50 percent and perhaps 90 percentof the world's species, although they cover only 7percent of the Earth's land surface. They include twothirds of the world's vascular plant species and about30 percent of its terrestrial vertebrate species. Up to 96percent of the world's arthropods may occur in tropicalforests (15).Tropical forests are important not only as the hometo myriad plant and animal species, and as the sourceof valuable products, but also because they support di-130Wbrld Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 9Figure 9.3 Global Distribution of Coral ReefsSource: J.E.N. Veron, "Distribution of Reef-Building Corals," Oceanus(Summer 1986), p. 29.verse human cultures (16). Tropical forests also regulatevital biological, geological, and chemical cycles.As these forests decline, however, they cannot supportthe local climate necessary for their own survival (17).Between 1981 and 1990, an estimated 9 percent of theworld's tropical forest was lost (18). Some types of tropicalforests have been under especially high levels ofthreat. For example, 98 percent of the tropical dry forestalong the Pacific Coast of Central America has disappeared(19).Temperate RainforestsThe loss of temperate rainforests is only beginning toreceive attention. Even the existence of areas such asthe temperate rainforests of the Pacific coast of theUnited States and Canada and in New Zealand, Tasmania,and Chile is not widely known. Historically,temperate rainforests also occupied parts of Ireland,Scotland, Iceland, and Norway, whose climates aremoderated by the Gulf Stream.These forests were never extensive. About 30 millionhectares of temperate rainforest once covered an areaonly 4 percent of the size of today's tropical rainforest.A recent study found that only 44 percent of the temperaterainforest remains, mostly along the Pacificcoast of North America (20) (21). The areas that remainare highly productive as well as diverse, playing a criticalrole in maintaining the health of the coastal watersheds.The environmental and economic impacts of the lossof temperate rainforests are widespread. As these habitatsdecline, so do the sectors of the economy that dependon healthy forests and fisheries.Coral ReefsCoral reefs are the underwater analog of tropical forests—habitatsof unparalleled biotic richness. Figure9.3 shows that the largest number of coral genera arefound in the Indian and tropical western PacificOceans, with fewer species in the reefs of the Caribbeanand Atlantic (22). While tropical terrestrial areashave a greater number of species, marine environmentscontain many more phylla (a higher taxonomicclassification), most of which live in coastal waters (23).Unlike the rainforests, coral reefs have fewer highly localized(endemic) species—most species that occuranywhere in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are foundthroughout those oceans.Coral reefs are under severe pressure from a varietyof threats. By the year 2000, approximately 1 billionpeople will live in coastal cities. (See Chapter 23,"Oceans and Coasts," Table 23.1.) Overfishing is depletingfish stocks; burgeoning coastal populationsand their associated human, agricultural, and industrialpollution are poisoning the reefs; soil erosionfrom upstream agricultural lands and the destructionof forests are smothering the reefs; even tourists whovisit the reefs can cause damage by walking on them.There is even speculation that global climate change isa factor in recent coral-bleaching episodes (24). (SeeChapter 12, "Oceans and Coasts.")Mediterranean Climate AreasFive areas of the world with a Mediterranean climate—cool, wet winters and warm, dry summers—have numbersof plant species and levels of endemism that rivalthe tropics. These areas include the Mediterranean basinof southern Europe and North Africa, parts of Californiaand Chile, the Cape region of South Africa (thefynbos), and southwestern Australia. For example, thefynbos of South Africa is home to 8,600 species ofplants, of which two-thirds are endemic (25). Becausethe Mediterranean climate is so agreeable to humans,however, these regions have historically been amongthe most extensively disturbed in the world (26).IslandsBecause their evolution takes place in relative isolation,many islands are home to species that are foundnowhere else. Remote ocean islands—such as Hawaiiand Ascension—have some of the world's mostunique flora: only a few of the species on these islandsare found anywhere else (27). However, the fixedboundaries and endemic species of islands also putthem at great risk of species extinction. Indeed, thelargest number of recorded extinctions has been onoceanic islands (28). About 10 percent of the vascularplant species endemic to Hawaii are extinct and 40 percentare threatened, as are 580 endemic plant speciesof the Canary Islands (29).World Resources 1992-93131

9 Wildlife and HabitatFigure 9.4 Areas with High Genetic Diversity of Crop VarietiesMexico &c Centra! AmericaMediterranean\ Indo —MalayaBrazil &c ParaguayPeru, Ecuador, &c BoliviaSource: Walter V. Reid and Kenton R. Miller, Keeping Options Alive: The Scientific Basis for Conserving Biodiversity (World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.,1989), p. 24.The introduction of nonnative species can be an especiallyserious threat to islands. On Guam, the browntree snake has caused the extinction of three of theisland's five endemic bird species and has nearly eliminatedthe other two. A program of captive breedingand introduction onto a nearby island free of brownsnakes may save the last of Guam's unique birds (30).Freshwater LakesJust as isolated islands evolve unique species, so doisolated freshwater lakes. A survey by the AmericanFisheries Society found that 30 percent of the nativefreshwater fish species found north of Mexico are endangered;of the endangered fish, 93 percent are affectedby habitat loss (31). The lakes of Africa's RiftValley contain more species than any other lakes in theworld, with high levels of endemism. Lake Victoriahas more than 200 endemic species, Lake Tanganyikaover 140, and Lake Malawi at least 500 endemics (32).Pollution, introduction of nonnative species, and overfishing(for both subsistence and the internationalhobby-fish trade) all pose threats to these species (33).Areas of High Crop BiodiversityThe loss of crop varieties, although less publicizedthan the loss or wild species, has severe implicationsfor global food security. Fewer than 100 species currentlyprovide most of the world's food supply (34), yetthousands of species and many more thousands of varieties(subspecies) have been grown since the developmentof agriculture 12,000 years ago (35). Not only isgenetic diversity declining on farms, but many of theareas that are home to the wild relatives of our foodcrops are also under serious threat. Most of these cropswere domesticated in temperate and subtropical zonesand in tropical highlands (36). Figure 9.4 shows areasof high diversity in crop varieties.Domesticated varieties are also under threat as a resultof the homogenization caused by large-scale agricultureand the demand for uniform varieties that canwithstand the rigors of shipping and storage. For example,a recent survey of fruit and vegetable varietiesrevealed that up to 96 percent of the commercial vegetablevarieties listed by the U.S. Department of Agriculturein 1903 are now extinct. Of more than 7,000 applevarieties in use between 1804 and 1904 in the UnitedStates, 86 percent have been lost; of 2,683 pear varieties,88 percent are no longer available (37).Thousands of traditional crop varieties were alsodropped from cultivation with the advent of the GreenRevolution, which promoted use of a limited numberof high-yielding varieties (38). In developing countries,these high-yielding varieties are now used on 52 percentof the agricultural land planted in wheat, 54 percentof land planted in rice, and 51 percent of landplanted in maize (39) (40). Unfortunately, most poorfarmers on rainfed lands have not benefitted fromthese so-called miracle varieties, which require irrigationand high chemical inputs.Crop breeders need a diversity of crop varieties inorder to breed new varieties that resist evolving pestsand diseases. There are many examples of crops that132World Resources 1982-93

Wildlife and Habitat 9Recent DevelopmentsNEW ANTICANCER DRUG FROMTREES IN PACIFIC NORTHWESTThe potential of plants to provide newmedicines has been demonstrated manytimes, but the issue took a new twist in theUnited States with the development of ahighly effective anticancer drug madefrom the bark of trees found in the ancientforests of the Pacific Northwest.The drug, known as taxol, was originallydiscovered in the early 1960s as partof a program at the U.S. National CancerInstitute to examine the cancer-fighting potentialof naturally occurring compounds;however, scientists did not begin to realizeits potential until 1979. The first clinical resultswere published in 1989 by JohnsHopkins University scientists. Among 48women with advanced ovarian cancer thatdid not respond to standard chemotherapy,30 percent responded to taxol. Otherstudies have found that the drug also maybe effective in treating advanced cases ofbreast cancer and possibly lung cancer d).The supply of the drug raises environmentalissues, however. At present, it canonly be made from the bark of 100-yearoldPacific yew trees, which are scatteredamong the old-growth forests of the PacificNorthwest. Harvesting Pacific yewsusually requires dear cutting, but manyU.S. environmental groups oppose anyclear cutting in the region because itwould reduce the habitat of the endangeredspotted owl as well as numerousother species. It takes about six mature Pacificyews to treat one patient (2).Before its medical potential was discovered,the tree was considered commerciallyunimportant and was typicallyburned as part of logging operations. TheU.S. Forest Service ordered a stop to theburning of yews in March 1991 (3).The taxol molecule is complex, and synthesisis expected to take several years. Environmentalists,meanwhile, point to thisas further evidence of the need to preservebiological diversity. Other plants, includingthe rosy periwinkle of Madagascar,have also proven to be sources of anticancermedicine. All told, plant-derived drugshad an estimated retail value of $43 billionin 1985 (4).ELEPHANT IVORY BAN PROVESEFFECTIVE BUT CONTROVERSIALAfter eight years during which poachingreduced African elephant populations byroughly 50 percent, most countries participatingin the Convention on InternationalTrade in Endangered Species (CITES)agreed to a ban on ivory trade in 1989. Theban, along with other conservation efforts,seems to have been effective. Poaching hasdeclined drastically in some (though notall) areas, and the price of ivory hasdropped to a few dollars per kilogram (in1989 the price was as high as $100 per kilogram).Elephant populations are stabilizingor increasing, and elephants arebeginning to return to areas such as northernKenya where they had been eradicated(5).All countries have officially stopped exportingivory, including the southern Africancountries that were opposed to theban. The lower market price has madeivory more affordable for many Africans,and domestic consumption appears tohave increased since the ban (6).These countries have carried out few elephantherd culls since the ban becausethey are no longer economically feasible.But the pressure to thin the herds is increasingas elephant populations grow. InBotswana, for example, the elephant populationhas reached about 67,000, but governmentofficials say the nation's preservescan sustain only 55,000 animals.Botswana officials say the herd is damagingwater and plant resources; they wantto cull 3-5 percent of the herd annually.Other southern African nations are expectedto join in the effort to permit sustainableculling of herds (7). Five states(Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Malawi,and Zambia) want to establish a SouthernAfrican Ivory Marketing Centre that willauction ivory and be exempted from theCITES ban. A new scientific technique hasbeen developed that can be used to identifylegal ivory as opposed to ivory frompoached elephants. Proponents say such amarket could put revenue back into thehands of African governments, whichcould use the money for elephant conservation(8).References and Notes1. Gina Kolata, "Tree Yields a Cancer Treatment,But Ecological Costs May be High,"New York Times (May 13,1991), p. Al.2. Ibid.3. Ibid.4. Jeffrey A. McNeelv, "Biological Diversity,"draft chapter for the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme's State of the EnvironmentReport, February 13,1991, p. 8.5. Mark Pagel and Ruth Mace, "Keeping TheIvory Trade Banned," Nature, Vol. 351, No.6324 (1991), p. 265.6. Jorgen Thomscn, Director, TRAFFIC International,World Wildlife Fund, Cambridge,United Kingdom, 1991 (personalcommunication).7. Clara Germani, "Elephant ControlsUrged," Christian Science Monitor (September26,1991), p. 10.8. Michael Cherry, "African States Invoke OriginTest to Resist Ban," Nature, Vol. 351,No. 6321 (May 2,1991), p. 7.have been "rescued" with genetic material from wildrelatives or traditional varieties, including wheat, rice,maize, sugar cane, potato, peanuts, chocolate, and cotton(41). For example, a variety of wheat collected inTurkey in 1948 that showed little promise (it was thinstemmed,lacked winter hardiness, and showed poorbaking qualities) turned out to be resistant to severaltypes of devastating wheat rust and is now used in allwheat-breeding programs in the northwestern UnitedStates (42). Similarly, a tomato found growing on theshoreline in the Galapagos Islands could be used to introducesalt-tolerance to domesticated tomatoes, especiallyimportant to areas with salinized soils (43).In an amazing display of genetic uniformity, nearlyall the coffee trees in South America are descendedfrom a single tree growing in an Amsterdam botanicalgarden 200 years ago—a serious situation when a newdisease began attacking coffee trees. The origin of thatCoffea arabica tree was the forests of southwest Ethiopia—foreststhat have virtually disappeared. Becausethere are no international agreements to guaranteethat Ethiopia benefit from the use of these importantgenetic resources, the country has barred future collectionsfrom the forests (44).Key IssuesGLOBAL BIODIVERSITY STRATEGYThe Global Biodiversity Strategy, scheduled for releasein early 1992, is the result of a process that brought togethermore than 500 scientists, community leaders,and representatives of government and industry fromaround the world under the auspices of the World ResourcesInstitute, the World Conservation Union(IUCN), formally known as the International Unionfor the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources,and the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP). The strategy proposes that the goal of biodiversityconservation is to support sustainable develop-World Resources 1992-93133

9 Wildlife and Habitatment by protecting and using biological resources inways that do not diminish the world's variety of genesand species or destroy important habitats. The strategyemphasizes developing a national and internationalpolicy framework that fosters the sustainable and equitableuse of biological resources and the maintenanceof biodiversity as well as providing conditions and incentivesfor effective conservation by local communities(45). The draft strategy and other programmaterials were provided to the Secretariat of theUnited Nations Conference on Environment and Development(UNCED) and to governments negotiatinga biodiversity convention under the auspices of UNEP(see below).The plan sets forth basic principles to guide biodiversityplanning at the local, national, and internationallevels and suggests actions to accomplish theseprinciples. It suggests that if these actions are carriedout within the next 10 years, the predicted species extinctioncrisis can be postponed and key genetic resourcescan be stabilized. Locally, the plan calls forcommunity organizations, local governments, and otherstraditionally excluded (such as women and indigenouspeople) to participate in decisionmaking. Nationally,it urges biodiversity action plans, policy reforms,better management, and more investment in biodiversityconservation. Between governments, the plan callsfor the adoption of a biodiversity convention (decribedbelow), as well as other conservation agreements, andchanges in development assistance. Globally, it calls fornew funding mechanisms, strengthened professionalnetworks, and better monitoring efforts (46).BIODIVERSITY CONVENTIONIn late 1991, a convention on biodiversity was beingdrafted by international working groups facilitated byUNEP, but it was not clear whether the conventionwould be adopted at UNCED in June 1992. Negotiationshave been slow because of the complexity of issuesrelated to domesticated species, technology transfer,biotechnology, and intellectual property rights.Much of the controversy revolves around the conceptof who owns biodiversity. With advances in geneticengineering, the vast genetic resources of tropicalcountries could become the "oil" of the 21st Century(47). In the past, pharmaceutical and agricultural interestshave had virtually unrestricted access to tropicalplants and animals without providing what many developingcountries consider adequate compensation.On the other hand, while developing countries knowhow to use wild species, they often lack the sophisticatedtechnologies to develop their raw genetic materialsinto valuable commercial products.As of early 1991, a draft convention proposed thatcountries give open access to genetic materials for scientificresearch, but that companies share the fruits off or-prof it research with host countries, perhapsthrough joint ventures (48). The draft convention alsostresses the need to transfer both technology and financesfrom North to South to conserve tropicalbiodiversity.FOCUS ON CONSERVING BIODIVERSITYThe conventional approach to preserving biodiversityhas emphasized the creation of parks and preserves,plus offsite conservation facilities such as zoos and botanicalgardens. This approach has helped sustainmany species, and it can mitigate some of the effects ofthreats such as habitat loss, overexploitation of plantand animal species, air and water pollution, the introductionof nonnative species, large-scale agricultureand forestry, and global climate change. Yet manysuch efforts do not address the root causes of biodiversityloss (49). The Global Biodiversity Strategy hasidentified several of these root causes: burgeoninghuman populations, increasing consumption of resources,ignorance about species and ecosystems,poorly conceived policies, and economic causes suchas the effects of global trading systems, inequity inresource distribution, and the failure of economic systemsto account for the value of biological resources(50). Many of these root causes occur simultaneouslyand are intricately connected.ROOT CAUSES OF BIODIVERSITY LOSSPopulation Growth and Increasing ResourceConsumptionThe world's population has more than tripled in the20th Century, and continued growth is assured overthe next 50 years, especially in the developing countries.Humankind's burgeoning numbers have an increasinglyvoracious appetite: people use or destroyabout 40 percent of the net primary productivity of terrestrialand aquatic plants (51). At the present pace, theEarth's renewable resources are rapidly being depleted;the probable doubling of the world's populationover the next 50 years will greatly increase thesepressures. (See Chapter 6, "Population and Human Development,"Recent Developments.)The issue of population is not only a matter of numbers,but also of patterns and levels of resource consumption.The average resident of an industrializednation uses 15 times as much paper, 10 times as muchsteel, and 12 times as much fuel as a person in a developingcountry (52).Population growth and increasing resource consumptionaffect biodiversity in two ways: they createpressure to convert wildlife habitat into agriculturaland urban land, and they produce wastes that pollutehabitat and poison wildlife. These trends can be offsetby stabilizing populations, using resources more efficiently,recycling, and controlling pollution.Ignorance About Species and EcosystemsKnowledge about the world's life forms lags surprisinglyfar behind other fields of scientific inquiry. Whilea great deal is known about individual species ofbirds, fishes, mammals, and plants, fewer than 1.4 millionof the world's 5-30 million species have beennamed, let alone studied in detail (53). Knowledgeabout the structure and functioning of ecosystems isjust as scant.134World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 9Information is also limited on the condition andvalue of biological resources, as well as uses and managementtechniques employed by traditional culturesover the centuries. For example, residents of one forestvillage in Thailand eat 295 different local plants anduse another 119 for medicine. The World Health Organizationestimates that 3,000 plant species are used forbirth control by tribal people around the world (54).This knowledge is rapidly disappearing along with theindigenous tribes that possess it. Over 6 million tribalpeople lived in the Amazon basin 500 years ago; todaythere are only about 200,000 (55). Compounding theproblem is the lack of trained scientists and engineersin many of the developing countries where biodiversityloss is the most severe.Poorly Conceived PoliciesGovernment policies designed to encourage some sectors,such as agriculture or forestry, can have the sideeffect of destroying biodiversity. For example, policiesthat award titles to settlers who "improve" or clear theland can result in the destruction of biodiversity. InBotswana, the government provides full cash subsidiesfor farmers to clear, plow, seed, and fence up to10 hectares for cultivation (56). Modern land laws aregenerally incompatible with the few remaining communityproperty systems, such as that of the Cree ofCanada, in which hunting and gathering are strictlyregulated for the long-term benefit of a group (57) (58).Simple lack of coordination between governmentagencies with overlapping responsibilities may also resultin loss of biodiversity. For example, an environmentalagency may be charged with halting deforestationwhile the agriculture ministry tries to boost cropexports by subsidizing farmers to clear land. A governmentmay embark on a program to link protected areaswith rural development but not set aside funds to continuethe program once the initial project money hasrun out (59).Effects of Global Trading SystemsThe world economy's reliance on trade has greatly increasedpressures to build national economies basedon comparative advantage and specialization. In developingcountries, which rely heavily on agriculturalcommodities for export earnings, those pressures havepushed farmers toward large-scale plantations growinga relatively narrow range of crops that are in demandon world markets—coffee, cocoa, and bananas,for example. As the number of crop species declines,so too does the complex system of supporting species—pollinators,seed dispensers, etc.—that evolvedwith traditional agricultural systems.The growth of such farming systems has often beenat the expense of species-rich forests, wetlands, and diversesmall-scale agricultural lands. In the process, thecultivation of better-adapted local varieties for morepredictable local markets has been abandoned andmuch local knowledge lost.Inequity of Resource DistributionPeople who depend on the bounty provided by landand biotic resources have a strong interest in maintainingthe productivity of those resources. But local communitiesoften do not control such resources, havelittle say in their management, and must pay the costsfor their unsustainable use. Inequities in who managesresources versus who receives their benefits can befound between rich and poor, men and women, andamong various ethnic groups.Globally, there are inequities between richer countrieswith the technological and financial capacity todevelop and exploit natural resources and the poorercountries where the resources exist. For example, a successfuldrug for childhood leukemia has been developedfrom the rosy periwinkle of Madagascar, butnone of the $100 million annual estimated revenue hasflowed to its country of origin (60). Most developingcountries also are heavily burdened by debt to industrializedcountries, which limits their ability to investin conserving their own resources (61).Failure to Account for the Value of BiodiversityMarkets tend to undervalue biodiversity, thereby promoting(directly or indirectly) its depletion. Ironically,biodiversity produces and supports immense benefitsto society, but it is almost totally ignored in nationaleconomic accounts because it is so difficult to value.When markets undervalue biodiversity, policies andsubsidies may encourage unsustainable or destructiveactivities. For example, Indonesia has subsidized theuse of pesticides in an effort to boost yields, but the resultingpoisoning caused the loss of beneficial insectpredators and various species of fish, in addition tothe loss of human life (62). In other countries, subsidizedirrigation has discouraged farmers from adoptingwhat would otherwise be practical and economicalwater conservation measures (63).When property rights are uncertain, there are few incentivesfor sustainable use by tenants. Research hasshown that people are more likely to use land sustainablyif they are confident that they will continue to haveaccess to that land in the future. Their good land stewardshipcan help preserve species diversity (64).Interaction of Root CausesThe root causes described above do not operate in isolation,but rather tend to act with and exacerbate oneanother. For example, the global market demand forshrimp encourages national governments to create policiesand subsidies for private businessmen to invest inshrimp ponds. In Asia, the production of cultivatedshrimp in 1990 was nearly seven times that of 1982 (65).The environmental costs of this growth, particularlyin the razing of coastal mangrove forests to build theponds, have been high. The islands of the Philippineshave lost about 70 percent of their coastal mangroveforests, mostly in the past 15 years. As a result, manyof the valuable ecological functions provided by mangroves—asnurseries and shelters for many commerciallyimportant fish, as buffer zones against destruc-World Resources 1992-93135

9 Wildlife and Habitattive wind and wave action, and as natural water purificationareas—are lost. In addition, the shrimp pondscause excessive freshwater withdrawal as well as pollution(excess lime, organic wastes, pesticides, chemicals,and disease organisms) that is flushed into adjoiningmangroves. Meanwhile, the costs of this habitatloss are borne by local people who depend on themangrove ecosystems for fish protein, revenue, andforest materials (66).CONVENTIONAL CONSERVATIONTECHNIQUES DO NOT ADDRESS ROOT CAUSESIn the past, efforts to conserve wildlife and habitatshave directly addressed the threats to those species orareas. In tropical countries, conservation efforts havebeen largely influenced by organizations or agenciesoutside the country. The traditional conservationmodel followed by industrial countries and adoptedby many developing countries emphasizes custodialmanagement, such as parks and reserves that banmost human activities within their boundaries. Protectedareas have typically been established to preservethe so-called charismatic species (e.g., elephants,tigers, or bears), spectacular vistas or geologic formations,and recreational or historic sites. Some areashave also been set aside to protect watersheds or reservetimber supplies. Until recently, however, fewareas were established expressly for conserving biologicaldiversity.The global network of international, national, and regionalprotected areas remains an important tool inbiodiversity conservation. These areas serve as criticalrepositories ensuring that at least a minimum of theworld's genes, species, and ecosystems are conserved(67). However, the continued loss of biodiversity suggeststhat these efforts alone are inadequate.Custodial ManagementIn 1861, the first protected area in the world was created-YosemiteNational Park in California. Since then,6,940 national parks, reserves, and other protectedareas have been established (68). In addition to protectedareas, there are more than 500 zoos (69), 1,500botanic gardens, 60 gene banks, and a small number ofscientific aquaria, collectively known as ex situ, or offsite,conservation facilities (see below) (70). Protectedareas and ex situ facilities have helped sustain manyspecies, including some in serious danger of extinction,but they have not slowed the overall rate of speciesor habitat loss. Between 1950 and 1990, the numberand extent of protected areas increased more thanfivefold (71). The average rate of species extinction,though not known with much precision, has clearly increaseddramatically over the same time period (72).Why hasn't custodial management solved the globalbiodiversity problem?As mentioned above, protected areas were often establishedfor purposes other than biodiversity conservation.Furthermore, park boundaries usually followpolitical lines rather than ecological lines, such as thelimits of a watershed (73). Many parks are also toosmall to effectively conserve intact ecosystems or providefor their inhabitants. For example, many park animalsmust range outside the boundaries during certainseasons to find enough food to survive.A number of other obstacles prevent protected areasfrom making a greater contribution to biodiversity conservation.Frequently, protected areas are imposed ona community with no input from and little regard forthe local people, thus creating conflict. Conflict alsoarises when the benefits of the areas go to society atlarge, or into government or business coffers, whilethe costs are borne by local people, whose use of thearea is restricted. When the people who had managedand depended on the resources of a park are excluded,they sometimes resort to destructive activities (such aspoaching) because they have no other way to providefor their families.Numerous activities outside a park's boundaries canalso have adverse effects inside the park. When landadjacent to a park is altered, for example, there may bechanges in breeding and migration of park species,changes in water availability or quality, or air pollution.Sometimes the threats occur inside the boundariesfrom activities such as mining, logging, roadbuilding, or poaching.Other problems that protected areas face includeineffective management and insufficient funding tocarry out a mandate. In many countries, the responsibilityfor managing natural areas is scattered amongvarious agencies or ministries, and in most countries,the responsible agencies are grossly underfunded andunderstaffed. Ironically, in many countries whereparks are major sources of tourist revenue, very little isreinvested in conservation. A recent survey of threatsto certain protected areas called World Heritage Sitesshowed that development was the most commonly reportedthreat in North America, Europe, and Oceania;inadequate management was the biggest threat inAsia; poaching, in Africa; and fire and natural threats,in South America. (See Chapter 20, "Wildlife and Habitat,"Table 20.3.)Ex situ forms of management have their own problemsand limitations. Many zoos, botanical gardens,and aquaria began a century ago as mere menageriesof exotic biological curiosities for public display. Someof them still treat plant and animal species strictly asacquisitions. In the past, seed banks have collected alimited number of species, and storage methods havesometimes failed to maintain the viability of the material.Even modern facilities with larger collections andgood storage methods cannot allow for evolution.Reorienting Old StrategiesOne of the major limitations of conventional strategiesis that protected areas cover relatively limited territoryand ex situ collections hold relatively little genetic material.Indeed, much biodiversity exists in areas inhabitedby humans (74). To respond to today's challenges,many leading zoos, botanic gardens, and other facilitieshave begun to reorient their missions through captivebreeding, scientific research, and public education.136World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 9For example, leading zoos and botanic gardens nowseek to breed and propagate rare species (75). Unfortunately,these facilities have the capacity to maintain viablepopulations of only a small fraction of the speciesthreatened with extinction (76). While captive breedingand reintroduction hold some promise, they are expensiveand somewhat limited in scope. More importantly,they cannot control one of the primary threatsto endangered species—habitat destruction.A number of zoos and botanic gardens have also expandedtheir educational efforts to inform the publicabout the loss of wild species and habitats. Such a biologicaleducation center would display re-creations ofnaturally diverse communities. The concept of a "biopark"may be the evolving role of these institutions asthey enter the 21st Century (77).Buffer Zones and Biosphere ReservesBuffer zones and biosphere reserves are examples of anew generation of conservation techniques, althoughso far they have had limited application and success.Biosphere reserves are based on concentric areaszoned for different uses. In theory, they center arounda "core zone" dedicated to preserving biodiversitywith no human interference. Around the core is a"buffer zone," in which some settlement and resourceuse is allowed, surrounded in turn by an indefinite"transition area," where sustainable development activitiesare promoted (78). Since the first 57 biospherereserves were designated by the Man and BiosphereProgramme of the United Nations Education, Scientificand Cultural Organization in 1976, there has beena slow increase in their numbers. (See Figure 9.5.)In practice, however, many biosphere reserves werecreated simply by giving the designation to an existingnational park or nature reserve, without adding newland, regulations, or functions (79) (80). Nor have agenciesbeen sufficiently funded to make the complicatedzoning system work. Buffer zones along park boundariesare meant to enhance the park's conservationgoals by barring human encroachment, broadeningthe area of natural habitat being managed, and providingeconomic opportunities that reconcile local peopleto the presence of the park. Without local involvementin design and management, however, the only way abuffer zone can work is if the park agency has the authorityand ability to enforce its regulations—a situationthat is rarely the case (81).ADDRESSING ROOT CAUSESNew conservation techniques that address the rootcauses of biodiversity loss are being implemented inseveral countries. One is bioregional management, amethod that goes beyond the buffer zone approach byinvolving local people, integrating ecological, economic,cultural, and managerial considerations at theregional scale. Another effort in Costa Rica trains localpeople to gather and classify specimens from the tropicalforest; with an extensive inventory of species alongwith their descriptions and uses, the country is then ina position to sell information to pharmaceutical companiesand negotiate arrangements that recover a percentageof profits from products derived from localspecies (82). This approach addresses the root causes ofignorance about species and ecosystems and inequityin the distribution of the benefits of biodiversity. Athird effort, in Indonesia, involves local planning andmanagement of a nature reserve.The examples above inspire hope that regional orlocal efforts can effectively address the root causes ofbiodiversity loss. However, these efforts can only flourishif nations create a supportive political and economicframework. The final section of this chapter discussesnational policy reforms proposed by the GlobalBiodiversity Strategy.Bioregional ManagementPerhaps the most ambitious expression of the integrativeapproach is the idea of managing whole regionswith biodiversity in mind. Dividing government responsibilityinto isolated forestry, agriculture, parks,and fisheries sectors does not reflect ecological, social,or economic reality. A "bioregional" approach requirescross-sectoral and, in some cases, transboundarycooperation and integration, as well as broad participationby all affected constituencies.Bioregions are areas with high value for biodiversityconservation in which a management regime is establishedto coordinate land-use planning of both publicand private landowners and to define development optionsthat will meet human needs without diminishingbiodiversity (83). The success of the idea depends oneliciting cooperation among various interests. Someconservation-oriented regional management planshave had trouble gaining local acceptance; an ambitiousplan for an Adirondack regional park in NewYork state is an example (84) (85). On the other hand,Australia's Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, in whichlarge marine ecosystem and the adjacent mainland aremanaged for sustainable development, is widely recognizedas a success (86). (See Box 9.3.)Monitoring with a Purpose: CollectingSpecies Data in Costa RicaCosta Rica is pioneering a new model of collectingfield information and cataloguing species using local"parataxonomists." The Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad(INBIO), founded in 1989 with the help of thenational government, is a private nonprofit organizationbased in Heredia. It serves as a clearinghouse forinformation on and monitoring of Costa Rica's floraand fauna—between 500,000 and 1 million species inall—and has begun a comprehensive national surveyof them. The name, location, conservation status, andpotential commercial uses of each species are cataloguedon computer. Using the catalogue, researcherscan look for possible chemical uses among newly describedwild plant species. Plants free of insect damageor fungal growth, for example, may contain naturalchemicals that act as insect repellents, growth inhibitors,or antibiotics. Such finds are worth money toagrochemical, pharmaceutical, or biotechnology com-World Resources 1992-93137

9 Wildlife and HabitatFigure 9.5 Number of Biosphere Reserves,1976-91(number of biosphere reserves)300-250-200-150-100-50-- - Industrialized — Developing/1976 1978 1980 1982 1984World--' — "^ - ^ "1986 1988 1990 1992Source: World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, U.K., March 1991(unpublished data).panies. For a fee, INBIO helps commercial users "prospect"in the catalogue (87) (88). INBIO's first major customerwas Merck & Co., Inc., the world's largestpharmaceutical company, which has a successful historyof developing pharmaceuticals from naturalsources. In exchange for plant, insect, and microbesamples from INBIO, Merck agreed to pay INBIO $1million as well as royalties on the sale of any productsthat Merck ultimately develops. Both Merck andINBIO hope that useful chemicals found in samplescould then be synthesized in the laboratory rather thanharvested from the forest. Part of the research fundingwill go to the Costa Rican National System of ConservationAreas to conserve biological diversity in thefield (89) (90).Costa Rica (like many tropical countries) has a shortageof taxonomists—scientists who can identify andclassify species (91). INBIO's solution is innovative: ithires and trains local people to act as field collectorsand do initial identification of insect specimens for thenational biodiversity survey. The first class of 16"parataxonomists" went into the field in 1989 and arenow collecting 100,000 insect specimens per month.During their first six months, they collected four timesas many insect specimens as had been put into CostaRica's national collections during the previous 100years. The parataxonomists include former housewives,farmers, ranchers, high school students, and nationalpark guards. The specimens are sent from thefield to INBIO, where apprentice curators classifythem. Finally, international experts are brought in toconfirm identifications and make definitive taxonomicjudgments (92).Reserve Management in Indonesia's Arf akMountainsIncluding local people in the design and managementof conservation programs can address several of theroot causes of biodiversity loss: inequity, ignorance,and the failure of policies and economic systems. Localinvolvement often results in innovative policies and amore equitable distribution of resources. A leading exampleis Indonesia's Arfak Mountains Nature Reserve,which covers 70 square kilometers of rainforest in the"Bird's Head" region of Irian Jaya, on the island ofNew Guinea (93). It lies within the territory of theHatam tribe, who rely on forest products for housingand food. The Hatam have agreed to help protect andmanage the reserve, a concept proposed by the IndonesianDirectorate for Forest Protection and Nature Conservationand the World Wide Fund for Nature (94).The objectives of the reserve are to maintain a naturallyregenerating rainforest, to benefit local people byallowing traditional use of the forest, to make the reservepart of regional development planning, and to increaseenvironmental awareness of and research in thearea. All aspects of the reserve's development havecome from a consensus worked out in a series of meetingsbetween the Forest Directorate and the local Hatamgovernment. There are now 13 village-level managementcommittees through which local residentsparticipate in decisions about boundaries, regulations,and future plans (95). As a result, every Hatam landholderin the reserve has agreed in writing to upholdthe regulations. In fact, landholders act as a "guardforce" to maintain reserve boundaries and report violationsof reserve regulations. For example, people fromoutside the tribe wanted to establish an illegal butterflyranch within the reserve but were thwarted afterthe Hatam refused to sell their traditional rights and reportedthe offer. Illegal forest cutting within the reservewas similarly stopped. There have been no knowninfringements of the regulations by the Hatam (96).The Arfak project is promising, but it is too early tosay whether it will have any lasting benefit for biodiversity.Optimism should be tempered by a 1990 WorldBank review of 18 projects in the tropics that are tryingto tie biodiversity conservation to sustainable local development.The review found few instances in whichthose benefitting from the programs were the same individualsor groups who constituted a threat to theprotected areas, and little evidence that generatinglocal benefits would lead to reduced pressure on theseareas. Despite this, the authors concluded that the ideaof local involvement in the management of protectedareas is fundamental to conserving biodiversity (97).NATIONAL POLICIES FOR BIODIVERSITYMuch of the innovative work in conserving biodiversityis spearheaded by nongovernmental organizationsand international aid agencies. Without policy reformat the national level, however, these efforts might remainpromising but isolated experiments. The GlobalBiodiversity Strategy identifies four major areas of policyreform that address the root causes of biodiversityloss:• Reforming existing policies that invite the loss ofbiodiversity,• Adopting new policies and accounting methods thatpromote conservation,138World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 9Box 9.3 The Great Barrier Reef: The World's Premier Marine Protected AreaThe Great Barrier Reef, stretching 2,000 kilometersalong the northeastern coast ofAustralia, is successfully managed as a $1billion a year park that supports tourism,scientific study, fishing, and other uses inseparately zoned areas. It is managed by apowerful Marine Park Authority with representativesfrom both the federal andstate governments. The authority is advisedby a Consultative Committee that includesrepresentatives of the groups withan interest in the reef: tourism officials,fishermen, local politicians, Aboriginals,scientists, and conservationists d). A MinisterialCouncil, composed of two representativeseach from the federal and stategovernments, coordinates policy with therespective governments (2).Although it continues to confront seriousproblems, including fishing-tourismconflicts, land-based pollution, and an outbreakof the crown of thorns starfish, thepark is considered a model of good managementand citizen involvement. The1975 Act creating the park was the firstpiece of legislation in the world to applythe concept of sustainable development tothe management of a large natural area.The administrative structure of the parkwas also designed to be sustainable. Accordingto Graeme Kelleher, chairman ofthe Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority,"In Australia the major determinantof administrative survivability oforganizations like the Authority is publicsupport. In the long run, government supportflows from it" 0).The authority, consisting of Kelleherand representatives of the state of Queenslandgovernment and a third member, hasstrong powers to approve or reject proposalsfor development or zoning changeswithin the park. Its zoning power has precedenceover almost all conflicting stateand federal legislation (4). Technically, theauthority may even have jurisdiction overland-based activities that affect the park(5)—a power possibly unprecedented inpark management.Corals have already been damaged byexcess nitrogen and phosphorus runoff,and Kelleher believes that the park's greatestchallenge in the next two decades willbe dealing with increasing nutrient runofffrom the area farmlands (6). In hopes of influencingdecisions about farm practicesand land use, the state and federal ministersfor environment and primary industrieswere recently appointed to theauthority's Ministerial Council (7).Relying on public participation to sustainthe park is not without its drawbacks.The authority's 1989-90 annual reportnotes that as the park attracts an increasingnumber of visitors, conflicts will inevitablyincrease among tourists, fishermen,and conservationists who use the park indifferent ways. "[The various interestgroupsl have developed a degree of sophisticationwhich enables them to applysignificant pressure on the zoning team,making resolution of contentious pointsmore difficult" (8). Currently at issue is arezoning proposal that would cluster tourismdevelopment.The park has separate zones for preservationand scientific research, recreation,and general use, which includes fishing,collecting, cruise ships, and other activities.Bottom trawling for shrimp is allowedin certain areas. The only commercialactivities prohibited throughout thepark are oil drilling and mining (9).A major effort is made to educate bothlocals and tourists about the fragile reefecology. A popular, self-supporting onshoreaquarium features a coral reef systemwith a walk-through viewing tunnel,museum displays, a cinema, and a commercialcenter with shops, food outlets,and charter boat services do). The Authorityalso provides grants to school and nonprofitgroups to develop educationalmaterials Hi).References and Notes1. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority(GBRMPA), Annual Report 1989-1990(GBRMPA, Townsville, Queensland, 1990),pp. 12-14.2. Ibid., p. 10.3. Graeme Kelleher, "Managing the GreatBarrier Reef," Oceanus, Vol. 29, No. 2 (Summer1986), p. 16.4. Ibid., p. 14.5. Op. cit. 1, p. 60.6. Graeme Kellehcr, "Sustainable Developmentof the Great Barrier Reef MarinePark," unpublished paper (Great BarrierReef Marine Park Authority, Townsville,Queensland, n.d.), p. 11.7. Op. cit. 1, p. 2.8. Op. cit. 1, p. 1.9. Op. cit. 3.10. Op.rif. 1,p. 45.11. Op. c/f. 1, pp. 37-39.• Reducing demand for biological resources, and• Integrating biodiversity conservation into nationalplanning.These policy reforms go far beyond previous conservationmeasures that focus more narrowly on speciesand habitats. Specifics in each policy category, discussedbelow, include changes in population planning,education, trade patterns, national incomeaccounting, and agricultural supports. Many of thesepolicies are controversial and will be difficult to institute.A first step is to identify and discuss governmentpolicies that have an impact on biodiversity (98).Reforming Existing PoliciesNational policies identified by the Global BiodiversityStrategy as potentially harmful to biodiversity include:• Policies that encourage wasteful and unsustainable loggingby charging low rents for short-term leases on publicland; and• Agricultural policies that encourage monoculturesand excessive use of pesticides, fertilizers, and water.These policies include subsidies for pesticides, fertilizers,and water; food price controls that prevent farmersfrom making an adequate return on investment; researchbiased toward high-input agriculture; andcredit policies that discriminate against traditionalcrop varieties (99).Establishing New Policies that PromoteConservation• Modify the national income accounting system tomake it reflect the economic loss that results when biologicalresources are degraded and biodiversity is lost.Under current accounting systems, ecological disasterscan appear profitable. For example, the Exxon Valdezoil spill in Alaska actually increased the U.S. gross nationalproduct: billions of dollars were spent on cleanup,but resource losses did not show up on the ledger.About 20 countries are developing national balancesheets for natural resources such as soil and timberthat are more easily "monetized." This system of accountingincorporates the value of biological resourcesand of biodiversity itself where possible, as well as thecosts of lost genetic resources, degraded watersheds,or eroded soils.World Resources 1992-93139

9 Wildlife and HabitatBox 9.4 Financing Biodiversity ConservationA number of innovative financingschemes have been developed to supportbiodiversity conservation efforts. "Debt-fornature"swaps have proved successful, forexample, although most such swaps havebeen fairly small, relative to both the debtof many developing countries and theirconservation and development needs.Chapter 20, "Wildlife and Habitat," Table20.6, lists 17 officially sanctioned andfunded debt-for-nature swaps that reduceddebts by almost $100 million andprovided $61 million in conservationfunds. One suggestion for expanding theirscope is to establish an International DebtManagement Authority to purchase debtobligations on the secondary market forall areas of sustainable development, includingbiodiversity conservation d).Endowments are another mechanism forproviding steady long-term financial supportfor conservation. One such trust fundis being established in Bhutan with a principalof more than $10 million; the interestearned will be used to fund training, inventory,protected areas management, environmentaleducation, institutionalsupport for government ministries, and integratedconservation and developmentprojects (2).The World Parks Endowment, created in1989 to support conservation in the "250environmentally richest areas of theworld," solicits contributions and funnelsthem into protected area projects in tropicalcountries. The endowment is run byThe World Conservation Union formallyknown as the International Union for theConservation of Nature and Natural Resources(IUCN). In its first two projects, itbought 45 square kilometers of tropicalrainforest in Guatemala's Sierra de lasMinas and endowed a Belize watershedprotection area with $200,000 (3) (4).Over $1 million per year is given underthe auspices of the World Heritage Conventionto protect biodiversity at sites of outstandingnatural importance. Another$600,000 is spent annually on conservationprojects under the Convention on Wetlandsof International Importance. Several UNEPRegional Seas Conventions also operate conservationtrust funds (5).The Tropical Forest Action Plan (TFAP),launched in 1985, and the InternationalTropical Timber Organization OTTO),founded in 1986, have conservation componentsthat relate to biodiversity. Althoughboth have been criticized as beingtoo oriented toward timber production,they can help nations obtain developmentassistance funds for sustainable forestmanagement (6) (7).An International Fund for Plant Genetic Resourceswas started in 1988. It has been estimatedthat the Fund would require $500million per year to be effective. Contributionsare voluntary, however, and responseso far has been inadequate (8).An international financing mechanism,called the Global Environmental Facility(GEF), was established in 1990 by theWorld Bank, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, and United Nations DevelopmentProgramme. GEF is a three-yearpilot project that will dispense more than$1 billion in grants and low-interest loansto developing countries (9). During thepilot phase, $250 million or more will bemade available to address loss of biodiversity,one of four global problems thatGEF will addressoo).An International Fund for the Conservationof Biological Diversity has been proposed aspart of a global biodiversity convention. Itwould be funded by voluntary contributionsand by levies on discharges into thebiosphere, on trade in natural living materialsor products derived from them, andon patentable new genetic material or productssynthesized from wild sources (ID.Nature tourism, also called "ecotourism"—travelmade to destinations specificallyto enjoy their wild plants and animals,scenery, and other natural attributes 02)—has the potential to become an importantsource of funds for biodiversity conservation.In 1988, tourism in developing countrieswas valued at $55 billion; naturetourism contributed up to $12 billion ofthat total 03) (U). In some small countries,such as Ecuador, Rwanda, and Kenya, naturetourism is a major earner of foreignexchange (is) 06). The benefits of ecotourismmay be overstated, however. TheWorld Bank estimates that 55 percent ofgross revenues leak back to developedcountries in the form of repatriated earnings,advertising costs, and payments fortourism-related imports such as oil, luxurygoods, and infrastructure 07). Of what remains,little goes into conserving the biodiversitythat makes nature tourismpossible. Each tourist authority will haveto find its own best way to invest its earnings,but earmarking revenues for biodiversityconservation is one possibility 08).Whether these financial efforts will besufficient remains to be seen. However,they do not approach the $52 billion requiredto implement the forest managementand biodiversity aspects of Caring forthe Earth: A Strategy for Sustainability, worldconservation strategy for the 1990s 09).References and Notes1. Environmental and Energy Study Institute(EESI), Partnership for Sustainable Development:A New U.S. Agenda for InternationalDevelopment and Environmental Security(EESI, Washington, D.C., 1991), pp. 15-17.2. Royal Government of Bhutan, United NationsDevelopment Programme, andWorld Wildlife Fund (WWF), "Prospectus:Trust Fund for Environmental Conservationin Bhutan" (WWF, Washington, D.C.,1991).3. "Belize Park Endowed," IUCN Bulletin,Vol. 21, No. 3 (September 1990), p. 9.4. The World Conservation Union (IUCN),"World Parks Endowment: Prospectus,"unpublished paper (IUCN, Washington,D.C, 1991), pp. 1-2.5. Jeffrey A. McNeely, Kenton R. Miller, WalterV. Reid et ah, Conserving the World's BiologicalDiversity (the World ConservationUnion (IUCN), Gland, Switzerland, 1990),p. 123.6. Ibid., p. 111.7. Mark Timm, "Timber Pact to Protect TropicalForests," Development and Cooperation(March 1987), p. 23.8. The Keystone Center, Final Consensus Reportof the Keystone International Dialogue Serieson Plant Genetic Resources: MadrasPlenary Session (The Keystone Center, Keystone,Colorado, 1990), pp. 26-27,29-30.9. "The Global Environment Facility," OurPlanet Vol. 3, No. 3 (United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Nairobi, 1991),pp. 10-12.10. The World Conservation Union (IUCN) EnvironmentalLaw Centre, "Legal Measuresfor Supporting the Conservation of BiologicalDiversity," paper presented at theIUCN General Assembly, Perth, Australia,November 1990, p. 11.11. Op. tit. 5.12. Hector Ceballos-Lascurain, "The Future of'Ecotourism,'" Mexico Journal 0anuary 27,1988), p. 13.13. "Riding the Tourist Boom," South (August1989), p. 12.14. Kreg Lindberg, Policies for Maximizing NatureTourism's Ecological and Economic Benefits(World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C, 1991), p. 5.15. Elizabeth Boo, Ecotourism: The Potentialsand Pitfalls, Vol. 1 (World Wildlife Fund,Washington, D.C, 1990), pp. xiv and xvi.16. Op. tit.13.17. Susanne Frueh, "Report to WWF on Tourismto Protected Areas" (World WildlifeFund, Washington, D.C, 1988), p. xv.18. James R. Barborak, "Innovative FundingMechanisms Used by Costa Rica ConservationAgencies," paper presented at theIUCN General Assembly, San Jose, CostaRica, February 1988, cited in KregLindberg, Policies for Maximizing NatureTourism's Ecological and Economic Benefits(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C, 1991), p. 25.19. The World Conservation Union (IUCN),United Nations Environment Programme,and World Wildlife Fund, Caring for theEarth: A Strategy for Sustainable Living(IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 1991), p. 22.140World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 9• Assert sovereignty over genetic resources and regulatetheir collection. To avoid legal complications over intellectualproperty rights, governments could tax companiesthat prospect for new species or form their ownresearch institutes such as INBIO, described above.• Regulate the introduction of species. Many countrieshave strict regulations concerning imported plants oranimals, but others leave this matter unregulated.There are numerous examples of introduced speciesdecimating local populations.• Establish and enforce methods to control water pollutionfrom both point sources and nonpoint sources,such as agricultural and urban runoff. Recent estimatesshow that up to 80 percent of marine pollutionoriginates inland, yet few countries effectively controlland-based sources of water pollution.• Formulate fisheries policies based on sustainable harvestlevels.• Set aside key marine habitats and other sensitive areaswhen planning coastal development (100).Reducing Demand for Biological Resources• Provide universal access to family planning servicesand increase funding to support their distribution.• Reduce resource consumption through recycling andconservation (101).Integrating Biodiversity into National Planning• Incorporate biodiversity conservation into nationalplanning to help countries define and articulate theirinternational interests. Countries that set biodiversitypriorities, assess their natural resources, and determinewhat they have to offer and what they want in returnhave an advantage at the international bargainingtable (102).FINANCIAL SUPPORTAn effective effort to conserve biodiversity must addressthe root causes of habitat loss; it must also involvelocal people and provide economic incentives toconserve diversity. But while surveys indicate thatthere is public support for government action to protectthe natural environment (103), biodiversity conservationremains relatively underfunded. Efforts toinclude an economic value for biodiversity in nationalaccounts and to tax resource use or sell information topharmaceutical companies will help, but biodiversityconservation will likely depend on direct financial support.Box 9.4 describes a number of recent internationalfinancing schemes.Wildlife and Habitat was authored by Janet N. Abramovitz, anassociate in WRI's Forests and Biodiversity program. Contributorsincluded Mary Paden, World Resources managing editor, DavidHarmon, a conservation consultant in Houghton, Michigan, RobertLivernash, World Resources senior editor, and W. James Batten.References and Notes1. World Resources Institute, World ConservationUnion, and United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, in consultation with theFood and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations and the United Nations Education,Scientific and Cultural Organization,Global Biodiversity Strategy (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C., forthcoming).2. Edward O. Wilson, "The Current State of BiologicalDiversity," in Biodiversity, Edward O.Wilson, ed. (National Academy Press, Washington,D.C., 1988), p. 5.3. Michael Krauss, "The World's Languages inCrisis," paper presented at the Symposiumon Endangered Languages and their Preservation,meeting of the Linguistic Society ofAmerica, Chicago, January 3,1991, p. 3.4. Walter V. Reid, "How Many Species WillThere Be?" in Tropical Deforestation and SpeciesExtinction, J. Sayer and T. Whitmore, eds.(Chapman and Hall, London, forthcoming).5. Op. cit. 1.6. "Recent Developments in the Reintroductionof Arabian Oryx {Oryx leveoryx) to Oman,"CBSG News, Vol. 2, No. 1 (Captive BreedingSpecialist Group, Apple Valley, Minnesota,1991), p. 8.7. The preagricultural habitat figure is based onthe expected vegetation composition in eacharea based on soils, climate, etc., in the absenceof human disturbance.8. Thomas W. Merrick, "World Population inTransition," Population Bulletin, Vol. 41, No. 2(1986), p. 13.9. Charles R. O'Neill, Jr. and David B.MacNeill, "Dreissena Polymorpha: An UnwelcomeNew Great Lakes Invader," SeaGrant (Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., February,1990), p. 1.10. Ravinder Kaur, "Women in Forestry inIndia," paper prepared for The World Bank,October 1990, pp. 17 and 43.11. Michael E. Soul, "Conservation: Tactics for aConstant Crisis," Science, Vol 253, No. 5021(August 16,1991), p. 745.12. Walter V. Reid and Kenton R. Miller, KeepingOptions Alive: The Scientific Basis for ConservingBiodiversity (World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., 1989), pp. 12-15.13. Norman Myers, "The BiodiversityChallenge: Expanded Hot-Spots Analysis,"The Environmentalist, Vol. 10, No. 4 (1990),pp. 253-254.14. Op. cit. 1.15. Op. cit. 12, p. 15.16. Daniel H. Janzen, "Tropical Ecological andBiocultural Restoration," Science, Vol. 239(January 15,1988), p. 243.17. Paul R. Ehrlich and Edward O. Wilson,"Biodiversity Studies: Science and Policy,"Science, Vol. 253, No. 5021 (August 16,1991),p. 760.18. Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations, "Second Interim Report onthe State of Tropical Forests," paper presentedat the 10th World Forestry Congress,Paris, September 1991, Table 1.19. Daniel H. Janzen, "Tropical Dry Forests: TheMost Endangered Tropical Ecosystem," inBiodiversity, Edward O. Wilson, ed. (NationalAcademy Press, Washington, D.C.,1988), p. 130.20. J.F. Weigand, "Coastal Temperate Rain Forests:Definition and Global Distribution," aworking manuscript (Ecotrust and ConservationInternational, Portland, Oregon, September1991), p. 6.21. Haisla Nation and Ecotrust, "A Cultural andScientific Reconnaissance of the GreaterKitlope Ecosystem" (Ecotrust and ConservationInternational Canada, Portland, Oregon,1991), p. 10.22. Jeremy B.C. Jackson, "Adaption and Diversityof Coral Reefs," Bioscience, Vol. 41, No. 7(1991), pp. 475-482.23. G. Carleton Ray, "Coastal-Zone BiodiversityPatterns," Bioscience, Vol 41, No. 7 (1991),pp. 490-498.24. Ernest H. Williams, Jr., and Lucy Bunkley-Williams, "Coral Reef Bleaching Alert," Nature,Vol. 346, No. 6281 (July 19,1990), p.225.25. Jeffrey A. McNeely, Kenton R. Miller, WalterV. Reid et al., Conserving the World's BiologicalDiversity (the World Conservation Union(IUCN), Gland, Switzerland, 1990), p. 4626. Harold A. Mooney, "Lessons from MediterraneanClimate Regions," in Biodiversity, EdwardO. Wilson, ed. (National AcademyPress, Washington, D.C., 1988), p. 158.27. Op. cit. 12, p. 18.World Resources 1992-93141

9 Wildlife and Habitat28. Peter M. Vitousek, "Diversity and BiologicalInvasions of Oceanic Islands," in Biodiversity,Edward O. Wilson, ed. (National AcademyPress, Washington, D.C., 1988), p. 181.29. Steven D. Davis, Steven J.M. Droop, PatrickGregerson et al., Plants in Danger: What DoWe Know? (International Union for Conservationof Nature and Natural Resources,Gland, Switzerland, 1986), pp. 62 and 159.30. John Carey, "Massacre on Guam," NationalWildlife, Vol. 26, No. 5 (August-September1988), pp. 13-15.31. Larry Master, "Aquatic Animals: EndangermentAlert," Nature Conservancy (March-April 1991), p. 26.32. Op. cit. 25.33. Simon N. Stuart, Richard J. Adams, andMartin D. Jenkins, Biodiversity in Sub-Saharan Africa and Its Islands: Conservation,Management and Sustainable Use (the WorldConservation Union (IUCN), Gland, Switzerland,1990), p. 134.34. Robert Prescott-Allen and Christine Prescott-Allen, "How Many Plants Feed the World?"Conservation Biology, Vol. 4, No. 4 (1990), p.365.35. Cary Fowler and Pat Mooney, Shattering:Food, Politics, and the Loss of Genetic Diversity(University of Arizona Press, Tucson, 1990),p. 19.36. Op. cit. 12, p. 23.37. Op. cit. 35, p. 63.38. Op. tit. 35, p. 60.39. Dana G. Dalrymple, Development and Spreadof High-Yielding Wheat Varieties in DevelopingCountries (U.S. Agency for International Development,Washington, D.C., 1986), p. 86.40. David H. Timothy, Paul H. Harvey, andChristopher R. Dowswell, Development andSpread of Improved Maize Varieties and Hybridsin Developing Countries (U.S. Agencyfor International Development, Washington,D.C., 1988), p. 55.41. Op. cit. 35, pp. 51-52.42. Op. cit. 35, p. 69.43. Op. cit. 35, p. 51.44. Op. cit. 35, p. 104.45. Op. cit. 1.46. Op. tit A.47. Jack Kloppenburg, Jr., "A View From theNorth," Panoscope, No. 23 (March 1991),p. 17.48. United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), Draft Convention on Biological Diversity(UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya, 1991), p. 47.49. Op. cit. 1.50. Op. cit. 1.51. Peter M. Vitousek, Paul R. Ehrlich, Anne H.Ehrlich et al., "Human Appropriation of theProducts of Photosynthesis," BioScience, Vol.36, No. 6 (1986), pp. 368-373.52. Alan Durning, "Asking How Much isEnough," in State of the World 1991 (WorldwatchInstitute, Washington, D.C., 1991),p. 161.53. Op. cit. 2, p. 3.54. Norman Myers, The Sinking Ark (PergamonPress, Oxford, U.K., 1979), p. 127.55. Op. tit. 35, p. 108.56. Hans P. Binswanger, "Brazilian PoliciesThat Encourage Deforestation in the Amazon,"World Development, Vol. 19, No. 7(1991), pp. 821-829.57. Fikret Berkes, "Cooperation from the Perspectiveof Human Ecology," in CommonProperty Resources: Ecology and Community-Based Sustainable Development, Fikret Berkes,ed. (Belhaven, London, 1989), pp. 76- 79,83-85.58. Community property systems (which arenot the same as open-access commons) formerlyoperated throughout much of theworld, but the erosion of traditional local authorityand population pressure on resourceshave made many of them unworkable intheir original forms. See Agnes Kiss, ed., Livingwith Wildlife: Wildlife Resource Managementwith Local Participation in Africa, WorldBank Technical Paper No. 130 (The WorldBank, Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 12.59. Agnes Kiss, ed., Living with Wildlife: WildlifeResource Management with Local Participationin Africa, World Bank Technical Paper No.130 (The World Bank, Washington, D.C.,1990), p. 2.60. M.D. Jenkins, ed., Madagascar: An EnvironmentalProfile (World Conservation MonitoringCentre, Cambridge, U.K., 1987).61. World Resources Institute (WRI), Natural Endowments:Financing Resource Conservation forDevelopment (WRI, Washington, D.C., 1989),p. 3.62. Jeffrey A. McNeely, Economics and BiologicalDiversity: Developing and Using Economic Incentivesto Conserve Biological Resources (InternationalUnion for Conservation of Natureand Natural Resources, Gland, Switzerland,1988), p. 45.63. Robert Repetto, Promoting EnvironmentallySound Progress: What the North Can Do(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. 5.64. Op. cit. 62, pp. 11-12.65. Conner Bailey and Mike Skladany,"Aquacultural Development in TropicalAsia: A Re-evaluation," Natural ResourcesForum, Vol. 15, No. 1 (1991), pp. 66-73.66. J. Honculada Primavera, "Intensive PrawnFarming in the Philippines: Ecological, Social,and Economic Implications," Ambio,Vol. 20, No. 1 (1991), pp. 28-33.67. Op. cit. 1.68. World Conservation Monitoring Centre(WCMC), Global Biodiversity 1992: Status ofthe Earth's Living Resources (WCMC, Cambridge,U.K., forthcoming), Table 6.02B,p. 96.69. World Resources Institute, in collaborationwith the United Nations Environment Programmeand the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, World Resources 1990-91(Oxford University Press, New York, 1990),p. 314.70. Ibid., p. 129.71. World Conservation Monitoring Centre andthe World Conservation Union (IUCN)Commission on National Parks and ProtectedAreas, 2990 United Nations List of NationalParks and Protected Areas (IUCN,Gland, Switzerland, 1990), p. 215.72. Op. cit. 54, p. 4.73. David Western, "Conservation withoutParks: Wildlife in the Rural Landscape," inConservation for the Twenty-First Century,David Western and Mary C. Pearl, eds. (OxfordUniversity Press, New York, 1989),p. 158.74. William Conway, "Can Technology Aid SpeciesPreservation?" in Biodiversity, EdwardO. Wilson, ed. (National Academy Press,Washington, D.C., 1988), pp. 263-268.75. Op. tit. 69, Table 20.5, pp. 308-310.76. Op. cit. 74.77. Michel H. Robinson, "Bioscience Educationthrough Bioparks," BioScience, Vol. 38, No. 9(October 1988), pp. 630-634.78. Michael Batisse, "Developing and Focusingthe Biosphere Reserve Concept," Nature andResources, Vol. 22, No. 3 (United Nations Education,Scientific and Cultural Organization,Paris, July-September 1986), pp. 2-12.79. Ibid.80. John Hough, "Biosphere Reserves: Mythand Reality," Endangered Species Update Vol.6, Nos. 1-2 (University of Michigan Schoolof Natural Resources, Ann Arbor, November/December1988), pp. 1-4.81. Michael Wells, Katrina Brandon, and LeeHannah, People and Parks: An Analysis of ProjectsLinking Protected Area Management withLocal Communities, draft report (The WorldBank, Washington, D.C., 1990), pp. 44-46.82. Op. cit. 1.83. Op. cit. 1.84. The Commission on the Adirondacks in theTwenty-First Century, The Adirondack Parkin the Twenty-First Century (State of NewYork, Albany, 1990).85. Governor Mario M. Cuomo's Proposals for theAdirondacks (State of New York, Albany,New York, October 1991), pp. 1-286. Graeme Kelleher, "Managing the Great BarrierReef," Oceanus, Vol. 29, No. 2 (Summer1986), pp. 13-19.87. Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad(INBIO), "National Biodiversity Institute ofCosta Rica: INBIO," unpublished paper(INBIO, Heredia, Costa Rica, September1990), pp. 1-3.88. Laura Tangley, "Cataloging Costa Rica's Diversity,"BioScience, Vol. 40, No. 9 (October1990), pp. 633-636.89. INBIO and Merck & Co., Inc., joint press release,September 19,1991.90. William Booth, "U.S. Drug Firm Signs UpTo Farm Tropical Forests," Washington PostSeptember 21,1991, p. A3.91. Warren Y. Brockelman, "Priorities forBiodiversity Research," Journal of the ScientificSociety of Thailand, Vol. 15 (1989), p. 235.92. Op. cit. 88.93. Ian Craven, "Community Involvement inManagement of the Arfak Mountains NatureReserve," unpublished paper (WorldWide Fund for Nature, Jayapura, Indonesia,1990), p.l.94. Ian Craven and Mary Ann Craven, "An Introductionto the Arfak Mountains NatureReserve" (World Wide Fund for Nature,Jayapura, Indonesia, April 1990), n.p.95. Op. cit. 93, p. 2.96. Op. cit. 93, pp. 2-4.97. Op. cit. 81, pp. 9-11,16-19, and 84-85.98. Op. cit A.99. Op. cit A.100. Op. cit A.101. Op.citA.102. Op.citA.103. Louis Harris and Associates, "Public andLeadership Attitudes to the Environment inFour Continents: A Report of a Survey inFourteen Countries" (Louis Harris and Associates,New York, 1988).142World Resources 1992-93

10. EnergyEnergy production and use are vital to the economiesand environments of all countries. Furthermore, themix of energy sources has profound consequences forenvironmental quality. The burning of fossil fuels, forexample, contributes to global warming.Global energy production has increased by roughly50 percent over the past two decades, with fossil fuels(coal, oil, and gas) together accounting for over 90 percentof production. The industrialized countries useabout three times more commercial energy than developingcountries and about 10 times more energy on aper capita basis. These statistics, however, do not includetraditional fuels such as firewood and animalwaste, which continue to be significant sources in developingcountries and remain the main energy sourcein oil-importing African nations. (See Chapter 21, "Energyand Materials," Table 21.2.)The western industrialized market economies,which were profoundly affected by the 1970s oil priceshocks, have rapidly improved their energy efficiencyand increased their use of natural gas over the past 20years. Central Europe and the Soviet Union, in contrast,use energy much less efficiently and have agreater reliance on coal. The economic transition underwayin that region is likely to bring changes in energyuse and improvements in efficiency. (See Chapter5, "Regional Focus: Central Europe.")In the developing countries, total consumption ofcommercial energy has almost tripled since 1970, withcoal and oil the major new sources. In the villages ofthe developing world, however, growing populationsstill must rely heavily on forests and woodlands asfuel sources.A further tripling of energy demand in developingcountries is expected between 1985 and 2025, with fossilfuels such as oil expected to be the major energysource.Some of this energy use could be avoided with improvementsin energy efficiency; many new industrialplants in developing countries could improve their energyefficiency by 30 percent or more, for example. Torealize these opportunities, new efforts are needed tomake available information about energy planningand available technologies, to improve the marketingof energy-efficient products for export, to improve financeand trade policies for energy-efficient products,and to facilitate joint manufacturing ventures.World Resources 1992-93143

10 EnergyCONDITIONS AND TRENDSGlobal TrendsENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTIONGlobal commercial energy production has increased52 percent over the past two decades, from 205 exajoulesin 1970 to 311 exajoules in 1989 (1 exajouleequals 10 joules). This trend has been interruptedonly twice, when the oil price increases of 1973-75 and1979-82 shocked the global economy and transformedthe world's political and energy landscape (l).Oil remains the principal source of commercialenergy production, but its share of production hasdropped from 48 to 42 percent since 1970. Coal rankssecond with 31 percent of the total; gas, third, with 23percent; and primary electricity—from nuclear, hydro,geothermal, and wind—makes up 5 percent of worldproduction. Gas and primary electricity were responsiblefor 39 percent of global production growth from1970 to 1989; oil accounted for 30 percent (2) (3). (SeeTable 10.1; note that gas is defined as natural gas andother petroleum gases.)Trends in energy consumption have differed slightlybetween the industrialized and developing countries.In the industrialized countries, which use about threetimes more energy than developing countries, consumptionleveled off during both oil price shocks butthen resumed growing. In the developing countries,however, growth was uninterrupted. As a result, developingcountries raised their share of global consumptionfrom 14 to 26 percent. (See Figure 10.1.)Energy consumption per capita shows striking differencesbetween the developing and industrialized countries.Each person in the industrialized world uses asmuch commercial energy as 10 people in the developingworld. An average U.S. citizen consumes as muchenergy as 2 Swedes, 3 Greeks, 33 Indians or 295 Tanzanians.(See Chapter 21, "Energy and Materials," Table21.2.)However, these comparisons underestimate consumptionin developing countries, because traditionalfuels such as firewood, animal and plant waste, andcharcoal are not included in international statistics. AsFigure 10.2 indicates, traditional fuels are a significantsource of total consumption in oil-importing developingcountries and are the primary energy source in oilimportingAfrican nations. In most developing countries,modern commercial sources of energy are consumedmainly by the industrial and transport sectorsin urban areas. In sub-Saharan Africa, traditional fuelssupply nearly all the energy to the rural population. InBangladesh, India, and Pakistan, traditional fuels provide90 percent of the energy used by rural households.The great majority of the 2.5 billion villagers indeveloping countries have no energy other than theirmuscle power and a few domestic animals to work thefields, process crop residue, and draw water. Traditionalfuels are used primarily to prepare meals; otheruses include heating, lighting, and energy for ruralcrafts (4).Trends in Industrialized CountriesIndustrialized countries—divided here between themarket economies of the Organisation for EconomicTable 10.1 Commercial Energy Production and Consumption by Region and Fuel, 1989(petajoules) {a}RegionLiquids {b}ProductionConsumptionGas{c}Produc- iConsump-tiontionSolids {d} Primary Electricity {e}Produc- iConsump-tion Nuclear Hydro {f} tionProduction Consump-tion{g}TotalProductionConsumptionWorld130,299116,57370,49770,14495,71334,61846023422634,1584,06829,37471697,01934,96344718726034,5162,88030,90473262,05639,03621,11713,0004,91923,0208,51014,5106,7837,68014,522310,972298,258Developing CountriesOil-Exporting DevelopingOPECfhjNon-OPECOil-Exporting{i}Oil-Importing Developing))}Africa Oil-ImportingAsia and Oceania Oil-ImportingLatin America Oil-Importing72,73259,77347,38412,38912,9596218,7643,57429,78911,3256,7714,55418,4641,43412,3324,69886,78467,60635,32122,4869,79919,1783,12916,04913,0339,5317,2422,2903,502162,3051,18010,3916,9075,0201,8873,484462,1711,26759,75333,71921,4039,6212,69526,0343,06322,971340o'0034014299272,5933652101552,2281201,0301,0785,0874,0902,0901,5054959971958022,9923582101482,6341261,3301,17811,5309,6434,2924,1971,1541,8874581,429123,31670,12955,07015,06053,1874,84041,7736,575187,656107,11471,08028,5897,44580,54311,47169,07178,13519,03712,1886,84959,0984,48646,7377,875220,123150,00482,13349,30418,56770,11915,16054,959Industrialized CountriesOECD IndustrializedNorth America {k}Western Europe {1}Pacific {m}Non-OECD IndustrializedCentral EuropeU.S.S.R.57,56731,28622,0438,1081,13426,28181325,46857,46428,90521,1586,85988828,5591,61126,94861,09537,32223,5959,4574,27023,7738,68715,0866,4435,5112,1932,660658932165767Source: United Nations Statistical Office, U.N. Energy Tape (United Nations, New York, May 1991) (on diskette).Notes: a. 1 petajoule = 10 15 joules = 947.8 x 10 9 Btus. b. Includes crude petroleum and natural gas liquids, c. Includes natural gas and other petroleum gases,d. Includes bituminous coal, lignite, peat, and oil shale burned directly, e. Production and consumption of electricity assessed at the heat value of electricity(1 kilowatt-hour = 3.6 million joules), the equivalent of assuming a 100 percent efficiency, f. Includes geothermal and wind. g. World electricity production shownas less than consumption because of incomplete trade data. h. Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran. Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UnitedArab Emirates, and Venezuela, i. Developing countries whose exports of petroleum and gas including reexports account for at least 30 percent of merchandiseexports: Afghanistan, Angola, Bahrain, Bolivia, Brunei, the Congo, Egypt, Mexico, the Netherlands Antilles, Oman, Syria, Trinidad & Tobago, and Yemen, j. Alsoincludes countries that are self sufficient in oil whose oil exports are less than 30 percent of merchandise exports, k. Canada and United States. I. Does notinclude Turkey, which is included in total for Asia and Oceania Oil-Importing, m. Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.Totals may not add because of rounding.144World Resources 1992-93

Energy 10Figure 10.1 Commercial EnergyConsumption, 1970-89(exajoules)300-World — Industrialized — Developing1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 19Source: United Nations Statistical Office, Energy Statistics Yearbook (UnitedNations, New York, 1991), and previous volumes.Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the transitionaleconomies of Central Europe and the SovietUnion—are responsible for 53 percent of the growth inglobal energy consumption in the past 20 years (5).These countries produce 85 percent of the energy theyconsume. The remaining 15 percent, almost all of it petroleumproducts, is imported from developing countries.About one third of the oil consumed in industrializedcountries comes from developing countries, primarilyfrom the Persian Gulf states. (See Table 10.1.)Patterns of fuel use have changed considerably in industrializedcountries over the past two decades. AsFigure 10.3A reveals, gas consumption grew steadilyand by 1989 nearly equalled coal consumption. Coalconsumption has increased 22 percent since 1970 andrepresented 28 percent of total consumption in 1989.By 1986, electricity from nuclear sources passed thecombined total for hydro, geothermal, and windpower, a result of strong growth in France and the SovietUnion. Primary electricity now accounts for 5 percentof total consumption, up from 2 percent in 1970.Overall, oil consumption is down slightly since 1979,but consumption has recovered since 1985 because of adecline in real oil prices (6).Energy Trends in OECD CountriesEnergy demand in the industrialized market economiesof the OECD nations was profoundly affected bythe 1973 and 1979 oil price hikes. (See Figure 10.3B.)These countries responded with structural changes intheir energy sectors, primarily by increasing energyefficiency and reducing dependence on imported oil.In the past two decades, for example, energy intensity(the amount of energy required to produce a unitof gross domestic production) declined by 25 percentin OECD countries, with the steepest drop occurringafter 1979. The decoupling of economic growth fromenergy consumption was encouraged by high energyprices, faster economic growth of the service sector,Figure 10.2 Energy Consumption inOil-Importing Developing Countries,by Fuel Type, 1989(petajoules)30-25-20-15-10-5-111 Traditional (a) D Electricity... •AfncaGas•lI •1Asia/OceaniaLiquids 1 Solidsi i —Latin AmericaSource: United Nations Statistical Office, Energy Statistics Yearbook (UnitedNations, New York, 1991).Note: a. Traditional fuels include firewood, animal and plant waste, and charcoal.and the relocation of energy-intensive industries to developingcountries. Japan, Denmark, and the UnitedKingdom have reduced their energy intensities byover 30 percent in the last 20 years; Japan's energy intensityis now the lowest among OECD countries (7).For OECD countries as a whole, net oil imports grewslowly in the 1970s and declined in the 1980s. The netdecline of 6 percent from 1970 to 1988 was primarilydue to a sharp drop in oil imports in Western Europe.That pattern did not hold in the United States, wherenet imports more than doubled (up 112 percent), or inJapan, where net imports grew 15 percent (8).Increased domestic energy production has alsohelped reduce the oil dependency of the industrializedmarket economies. Total energy production hasjumped 22 percent over the last two decades, includinga 66 percent increase in Europe, primarily fromNorth Sea oil and gas production (9). Most OECD countriesalso expanded nuclear energy production, withFrance and Japan in the lead. Expansion of nuclear capacityhas slowed, however, because of cost concernsand the chilling effect of the accidents at Three Mile Islandand Chernobyl. Coal production has increased inOECD countries, primarily in Australia and the UnitedStates, because of a switch from oil to coal for generatingelectricity (10). Finally, renewable energy sourcessuch as geothermal, solar, biomass, or wind energyhave increased their share in some OECD countries.They now provide up to 5 percent of total primary energyrequirements in Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark,Sweden, and Switzerland (11).Energy Trends in Non-OECD IndustrializedCountriesThe 1973 and 1979 oil price shocks were not felt in theSoviet Union and Central Europe because of theregion's self-sufficiency in energy. As a result, energyWorld Resources 1992-93145

10 EnergyFigure 10.3 Commercial EnergyConsumption in Industrialized Countries,1970-1989A. All Industrialized Countries(exajoules)0-— Solids Liquids -Gas —Hydro Nuclear—[—' r • v' i i i—i—i i i i i i—i—i—i i i i i1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988B. OECD Industrialized Countries(exajoules)0-— Solids Liquids --Gas — HydroNuclear, • —C. Central Europe and the Soviet Union(exajoules}100-80-60-40-20-80-60-40-20--i—i—r—i—i—r-—i—I—i—r- r—1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 198825-20-15-10-5-— Solids^^ "Liquids ~Gas -- HydroNuclear0-|—i—i—i—i—l— r—i "T I i i r i—i—i— i \ i i i1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988Source: United Nations Statistical Office, Energy Statistics Yearbook (UnitedNations, New York, 1991), and previous volumes.Note: See Notes in Table 10.1 for definitions of terms.consumption in that region continued virtually uninterrupteduntil the dramatic political and economicchanges of the past few years. (See Chapter 5, "RegionalFocus: Central Europe.")Energy supply and demand in the eight non-OECDindustrialized nations (Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia,Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Soviet Union,and Yugoslavia) have been dominated by the SovietUnion, the world's largest producer of oil and naturalgas. The U.S.S.R. is a net exporter of primary energy,with Central and Western Europe importing almostequal shares (12). However, since the breakup of theregion's economic alliance—the Council for MutualEconomic Assistance (CMEA)—Central Europeancountries are required to pay for their energy importswith hard currency, putting a heavy burden on thesestruggling economies (13).Natural gas has emerged as the most important energysource in the non-OECD industrialized countries,surpassing oil in 1983 and coal in 1987. (See Figure10.3C.) This shift was primarily due to the SovietUnion's supply-oriented energy policy, which shifted financialresources into the oil sector when coal productionstagnated in the late 1970s and then into the gassector when oil production leveled off in the 1980s (14).In 1989, total energy production in non-OECD industrializedcountries fell for the first time. Depletion ofold deposits, skyrocketing capital costs to developnew energy resources in remote regions of westernSiberia, and economic and political turbulence allcontributed to this decline (15). The Soviet Union's ambitiousnuclear program has also fallen behind its target,although it may play a greater role in the futureenergy supply mix (16). A growing environmentalmovement in Central Europe combined with highcosts may curtail most nuclear expansion there.Central Europe and the Soviet Union still rely heavilyon coal, contributing to severe urban pollutionproblems. Coal is the most important source of energyin Poland and Czechoslovakia and it powers the industrialsector of Bulgaria. The majority of households inBulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland burncoal to heat their homes: 47 percent of all coal consumedin Poland and 75 percent in Hungary goes tothe residential sector. The U.S.S.R. differs from its CentralEuropean neighbors in this regard: 52 percent ofthe residential energy consumed comes from naturalgas, followed by district heat and electricity (17). Unlikethe OECD countries, however, these countries havenot yet decoupled energy and economic growth; theireconomies remain among the least energy efficient ofthe industrialized countries.Future TrendsIn the 1990s, the trend toward higher energy efficiencyand greater supply self-reliance should continue inOECD countries. The non-OECD industrialized nationswill concentrate on modernizing the energy supplysystem and accelerating the development of newand renewable energy sources. In addition, a numberof countries are beginning to adjust their energy poli-146Wortd Resources 1992-93

Energy 10cies to discourage the use of fuels that emit greenhousegases. For instance, Germany has pledged to cutcarbon dioxide emissions 25 percent by the year 2005,and many other countries have pledged to cut or stabilizeemissions (18).Trends in Developing CountriesCommercial energy production in developing countriesgrew from 35 to 40 percent of the world total between1970 and 1979, but reduced oil production after1979 brought the share back down to 35 percent. By1989, developing countries' share had returned to 40percent, a result of restored oil production and constantexpansion of other fuel types: in the last 20 years,the developing countries' global share grew from 20 to36 percent for coal production, from 6 to 18 percent fornatural gas production, and from 15 to 20 percent forprimary electricity production (19).Total consumption of commercial energy almost tripled,with the demand for coal growing faster thanthat for oil after the 1979 oil price shock. (See Figure10.4A.) In 1989, coal satisfied about 45 percent of totalcommercial energy demand, followed by oil with 38percent. Primary electricity and gas have both increasedmore than fourfold but still play a less importantrole in the energy supply system (20). The currentproven natural gas reserves could sustain six timesthe current production levels, but many developingcountries are deterred by high development and distributioncosts (21).Developing countries as a group remain a net exporterof energy, their oil and gas fueling the economiesof the industrialized countries. The total for thegroup is misleading, however, because energy productionis concentrated in only a few developingcountries. Most developing countries remain dependenton oil imports, and the changing energy marketsin the last two decades have had different effects onthe economies and development of oil importers andexporters.Of the 26 major oil-exporting developing countries—forwhom oil represents more than 30 percentof their merchandise exports—13 are members of theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) and 13 are unaffiliated. (See Table 10.1.) Theseoil exporters have suffered a significant loss of revenuessince prices fell in 1986. The net oil export earningsfor OPEC members was $73.5 billion in 1986, halfthe amount collected three years before (22). After cuttingproduction by 45 percent from 1979 levels, OPEChas increased production steadily since 1985, yet 1990production was still 20 percent lower than 1979 (23).This volatility has shaken the economies of oil-exportingdeveloping countries, severely restricting economicgrowth, limiting debt servicing for highlyindebted countries such as Nigeria and Mexico, andimpeding the transition to a diversified and developedpost-oil economy. Most of the growth in oil consumptionby developing countries was internalconsumption within oil-exporting developing countries,caused by low domestic petroleum productFigure 10.4 Commercial EnergyConsumption in Developing Countries,1970-89A. All Developing Countries(exajoules)5-— Solids Liquids - - Gas — Hydro - Nuclear/ - —0 -\—i—i—r ' i i i i i i i i i l i i i i i i i1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988B. Oil-Exporting Developing Countries(exajoules)8-6-4-2-1970 1972— Solids__-'1974 1976Liquids - -Gas- Hydro1978 1980C. Oil-Importing Developing Countries(exajoules)35-30-25-20-15-10-10-30-25-20-15-10-5-^— Solids^1982--'1984 1986 1988Liquids -"Gas — Hydro • Nuclear/0 H—i—i—i—i—T— T i—r~i—i 'i'' i l " i'''—r^i—i—i—i—I1970 1972 19741976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988Source: United Nations Statistical Office, Energy Statistics Yearbook (UnitedNations, New York, 1991), and previous volumes.Note: See Notes in Table 10.1 for definitions of terms./World Resources 1992-93147

10 EnergyTable 10.2 Proven Commercial Energy Reserves, 1987(petajoules) {a}RegionReservesOilR/P {b}YearsNatural GasReservesR/P{b}YearsHard CoalReservesCoalSoft CoalReservesR/P {b}YearsTotalReservesWorld5,173,410Developing Countries4,484,707Oil-Exporting Developing4,274,759OPECfcj3,878,753Non-OPEC Oil-Exporting Developing {d} 396,006Oil-Importing Developing {e}Africa Oil-ImportingAsia and Oceania Oil-ImportingLatin America Oil-Importing209,94816,371151,41442,1634062728232162617124,246,2212,014,0351,780,3871,639,048141,339233,64827,732166,18339,7336015518722662671,6997234392115346357145930,016,40420,889,32083,86946,72137,14820,805,4511,745,88218,762,143297,4267,294,1961,883,03540,00830,6009,4081,843,0279771,805,40536,64539065826933020666342970046723822220117445226216431946,730,23129,271,0976,179,0235,595,122583,90123,092,0741,790,96220,885,145415,967Industrialized CountriesOECD IndustrializedNorth America {f}Western Europe {g}Pacific {h}Non-OECD IndustrializedCentral EuropeU.S.S.R.688,703342,082223,795105,43312,854346,62111,661334,96012111013111314132,232,186613,374322,178235,26655,9301,618,81223,2651,595,5479,127,0845,351,8103,259,972801,7541,290,0843,775,274872,6342,902,6405,411,1612,950,5021,471,440840,992638,0702,460,659548,1391,912,52017,459,1349,257,7685,277,3851,983,4451,996,9388,201,3661,455,6996,745,667Sources:1. World Energy Conference (WEC), 1989 Survey of Energy Resources (WEC, London, 1989).2. United Nations Statistical Office, Energy Statistics Yearbook (United Nations, New York, 1991).Notes: a. 1 petajoule (PJ) = 10 15 joules = 947.8 x 10 9 Btus. Conversion factors: 1 million metric tons of oil equivalent = 41.87 PJ, 1 billion cubic meters natural gas =38.84 PJ, 1 million metric tons of coal equivalent (hard coal) = 27.91 PJ, 1 million metric tons of coal equivalent (soft coal) = 13.96 PJ. b. R/P is the ratio of provenreserves to 1989 production rate. c. Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, andVenezuela, d. Developing countries whose exports of petroleum and gas including reexports account for at least 30 percent of merchandise exports: Afghanistan,Angola, Bahrain, Bolivia, Brunei, the Congo, Egypt, Mexico, the Netherlands Antilles, Oman, Syria, Trinidad & Tobago, and Yemen, e. Also includes countries thatare self sufficient in oil whose oil exports are less than 30 percent of merchandise exports, f. Canada and United States, g. Does not include Turkey, which isincluded in total for Asia and Oceania Oil-Importing, h. Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.Totals may not add because of rounding.prices, increased urbanization, and populationgrowth. (See Figure 10.4B.) Natural gas plays an importantsupply role in only three oil-exporting developingcountries: Algeria, Mexico, and Venezuela (24).The remaining developing countries have generallybenefited from lower oil prices. They include 11 countriesthat are self sufficient in oil and are minor exporters,16 minor producers that still have to import asizable share of their oil supply, and 63 nations thatproduce no oil and are completely dependent on imports(25). (See Chapter 21, "Energy and Materials,"Table 21.2.) Oil demand for this group as a whole hasfollowed price trends, with consumption slowing afterthe 1973 and 1979 price shocks and rebounding since1986. (See Figure 10.4C.)China, India, South Africa, and the DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea produce 92 percent of thecoal from developing countries. These four countriesare also responsible for the rapid increase in coal consumptionshown in Figure 10.4C. Most of this coal isused in the industrial sector. In China, whose economydepends on coal for 73 percent of its energy needs, onequarter of all coal is burned for residential heating,contributing to severe urban air pollution (26).Hydropower has expanded rapidly in Latin America;the region now accounts for one half of the hydroproduction in developing countries. (See Chapter 21,"Energy and Materials," Table 21.1.) Eight developingcountries—India, Pakistan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan,Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa—also produce commercial electricity from nuclearreactors. In late 1990, their total net capacity was12,776 megawatts, or 4 percent of the world total (27).Oil-importing developing countries face two majorenergy challenges. First, the cost of fuel forces countriesto divert scarce funds away from the developmentof indigenous energy supply systems and awayfrom urgently needed improvements in other sectors,such as health care or agriculture.Second, because most of their people depend on traditionalfuels, oil-importing developing countriesmust stimulate the modern sector of their economiesto become less dependent on oil, while at the sametime the traditional sector develops sustainablesources of traditional fuels or switches to modernfuels. An analysis of this transition in Southeast Asiannations found that the share of traditional fuels in totalenergy supply declined in all studied countries between1970 and 1985. The total demand for traditional fuels,however, increased over that time period: by 30 to 40percent in India, the Philippines, and Bangladesh; by45 to 60 percent in Nepal, Malaysia, and Pakistan; andby 81 percent in Thailand. In a few countries—India,Nepal, the Philippines, and Malaysia—per capita consumptionof traditional fuels declined, partly due toswitching to other fuels, but this trend was offset by increasesin population (28). These results indicate that—even in nations where per capita consumption of traditionalfuels is declining and the transition to modernfuels is well underway—pressure to use forests andfragile landscape to satisfy energy needs continues,thus prolonging or exacerbating the fuelwood crisis.148World Resources 1992-93

Energy 10ENERGY RESERVESProven reserves are those resources that, under existingconditions, can be extracted in the future with reasonablecertainty, according to geological and engineeringinformation. Proven reserves are a component oftotal energy resources, a broader measure that includesmarginally economic and subeconomic reserves, eitherdemonstrated or inferred. The following discussion isof proven reserves. (See Table 10.2.)Coal. Coal is the most abundant of the three commercialfuel types and has a reserves-to-production ratioof 390 years. Over 60 percent of world coal reservesare found in developing countries, 50 percent in Chinaalone. Among industrialized countries, the SovietUnion and the United States have the largest reserves,with 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively. Coal reservesin developing countries are very likely underestimated,because exploration activities have been lessextensive (29).Oil. The world's oil reserves stood at 124 billion metrictons, or 40 years at 1989 production levels. Developingcountries account for over 86 percent of world reserves,with the majority found in oil-exporting countries.Proven reserves in industrialized countries werealmost evenly divided between OECD and non-OECD, each group having a reserves-to-productionratio of a little over 10 years.Gas. Developing and industrialized countries eachshare half of the world's natural gas reserves. Thelower output level in the developing countries putsthe reserves-to-production ratio at 155 years, comparedto 39 years in industrialized countries. The SovietUnion has the world's largest natural gas reserve(38 percent of the total).Hydropower. The development of large-scale hydropowerprojects in developing countries has beenslowed by financial problems and social and environmentalconcerns. Only a small proportion of the potentialhydropower in developing countries has beenharnessed: 5 percent in Africa, 8 percent in Latin America,and 9 percent in Asia (30). China has tapped about10 percent of its 378 gigawatt exploitable potential, theworld's largest (31). A greater share of hydro potentialhas been developed in industrialized countries, including26 percent in OECD countries and 52 percent inthe United States. (See Chapter 22, "Freshwater,"Table 22.2.)FOCUS ON TECHNOLOGYCOOPERATION IN ENERGY EFFICIENCYENERGY DEMAND AND ENERGY EFFICIENCYThe developing countries are expected to see the demandfor energy more than triple between 1985 and2025 (32). Rising demand for oil, particularly to meettransportation needs, will make developing countriesimportant participants in the global demand for oil,but it will also leave them increasingly vulnerable to011 price shocks.The capital requirements to meet these energy demandswill grow correspondingly. Average annual expendituresfor energy are projected to increase from$65 billion for the period 1990-2000 to $138 billion forthe period 2000-25 (33). Financing for the electric sectorfrom multilateral and bilateral agencies is expected toaccount for only $22.5 billion annually by 2008; total financingfrom these agencies is unlikely to meet morethan 20 percent of the energy financing needs of developingcountries (34). As energy investment crowds outproductive investments in other sectors, the mostlikely results will be increased levels of indebtednessand a slowdown in economic expansion.Rapid growth of the energy sector will also have substantialenvironmental consequences. Developingcountries will experience significant increases in suchregional pollutants as nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons,carbon monoxide, and sulfur dioxide. (See Chapter 13,"Atmosphere and Climate.") Emissions of carbon dioxide(CO2), a greenhouse gas, in developing countriesare projected to at least double over the next 35 years(35). As a result, developing countries are expected toaccount for more than half of the global increase inCO2 emissions by 2025 (36).Pursuing energy development with "business-asusual"strategies therefore offers developing countriesa bleak view of the future: mounting debt, slow or stagnanteconomic growth, intensifying environmental pollution,and frequent oil crises to buffet their weakeconomies. The populations of these countries will notgain access to needed energy services such as lighting,refrigeration, and heating and cooling to the degree expectedand promised. Many developing countries alreadyface these problems, and with growing populationsand greater capital constraints in the future, theproblems will only increase.Benefits of Increased Energy EfficiencyIncreasing the efficiency of energy services is onemechanism for addressing these problems. This doesnot mean that energy supplies are reduced, nor that energyservices are cut off. Rather, the energy required toprovide a given service is reduced by improving theenergy efficiency of that service, as for example, byproviding refrigeration with more efficient compressors.This stretches energy supplies so that more peoplegain access to energy services.There is room for substantial improvement in the efficiencyof energy services in developing countries.The industrial sector accounted for about 50 percent ofthe final energy consumption in these countries in1987; the transport sector, 22 percent; and buildingsand agriculture, 29 percent (37). In the industrial sector,energy-intensive products such as steel, cement, chemicals,and paper account for much of the energy use (38).The energy efficiency of producing these materials isoften much lower than in industrialized countries. Forexample, integrated steel plants in India and China—among the largest steel producers in the developingworld—presently use, on average, 45 to 53 gigajoulesper metric ton of steel produced (1 gigajoule = 10World Resources 1992-93149

10 EnergyRecent DevelopmentsKUWAIT OIL FIELDS RECOVERINGThe last of about 650 oil-well fires in Kuwaitwas extinguished on November 6,1991, after eight months of intensive effortby firefighting crews from around theworld. The fires were tamed monthsahead of schedule with the help of a newtechnique involving liquid nitrogen d).Of Kuwait's 935 oil wells, 749 were damagedor sabotaged during the Persian GulfWar and 650 of those were either setablaze or left gushing oil. The Kuwait OilCompany hired some 9,000 workers from32 countries to get the wells back into production(2).Before the war, Kuwait was capable ofproducing about 272,000 metric tons of oilper day (3). By early November 1991, productionwas about 44,200 metric tons perday. Kuwaiti government officials hopeproduction will increase to about 54,000metric tons per day by the end of 1991 andto 204,000 metric tons per day (about 75percent of prewar capacity) by the end of1992 (4). The war-damaged Mina al-Ahmadi refinery was nearly ready to resumeproduction in September 1991 (5).Kuwaiti government officials said theamount of crude oil lost could ultimatelytotal as much as 3 percent of Kuwait'stotal proven reserves, or about 385 millionmetric tons. In January 1991, Kuwait reportedestimated total reserves of about12.8 billion metric tons (6).Many experts initially thought it mighttake two to three years to put out the oilwellblazes. But the fires were extinguishedfar ahead of the most optimistic schedule,in part because of a new technique inwhich liquid nitrogen was sprayed ontothe flames or pumped into metal sleevesplaced atop the burning wells. The intenselycold liquid robbed the fires of oxygen(7).The Kuwaiti government spent $1.5 billionto put out the fires, but reportedlysaved $12 billion in losses by capping thewells three months ahead of schedule (8).Though the fires were extinguished byNovember, much more remained to bedone. Kuwaiti officials said between 3.4and 6.8 million metric tons of oil remainingin lakes around damaged wells mustbe drained. Residue from the oil lakestook an immense toll on the fragile desertenvironment, killing thousands of migratorybirds, who often mistook the oil lakesfor water (9).SOVIET OIL PRODUCTION FALLSThe Soviet Union's oil industry slid perilouslyclose to collapse during the politicaland economic turbulence of 1990 and1991.From May 1988 to March 1991, Soviet oilproduction dropped by about 250,000 metrictons per day, which is roughly equivalentto the entire flow of Kuwaiti oil lostafter Iraq's invasion. Soviet oil exports in1991 were expected to be less than half thelevel of the late 1980s. Even Soviet gas production,which experienced dramatic outputgains in the late 1970s and 1980s, waseroding. Gas flow rose just 0.3 percent duringthe first quarter of 1991, much slowerthan gains registered in previous years do).A multitude of factors—technological,organizational, and political—have contributedto the oil and gas industry's problems.For example, ethnic unrest early in1990 in Azerbaijan, which produces 60 percentof Soviet oil field equipment, causedequipment shortages (ID. Following thebreakup of the union in August and September1991, coordination problems betweenrepublics threaten to further hurtoil and gas production.ELECTRIC VEHICLES MOVETOWARD COMMERCIALIZATIONClean air laws and regulations in theUnited States are providing a significantnew push for the commercial developmentof electric vehicles.In California, the city of Los Angeles issponsoring a competition to introduceelectric vehicles. The Los Angeles Departmentof Water and Power and SouthernCalifornia Edison are funding a $17 millioneffort to bring 10,000 electric vehiclesinto the area by 1995. The department receivedover 200 responses to its 1989 invitationfor proposals and selected twocompanies to produce electric vehicles.Clean Air Transport, which is based in Englandand Sweden, will produce four-passengercars with a range of 240 kilometers;Unique Mobility Inc., of Englewood, Colorado,will produce a mid-sized van with arange of 190 kilometers (12).As many as 15 other U.S. states also areconsidering rules that would require thesale of low-emission and zero-emission vehicles(presumably electric vehicles) in the1990s (13).Meanwhile, many auto manufacturersare moving rapidly to develop electric vehicles.At least eight Japanese companies(including Nissan, Toyota, Mazda, andSuzuki) have developed intensive electricvehicle programs and introduced prototypes(14). Many European companies alsoare developing electric vehicles; BMW, forinstance, introduced a new four-passengerelectric car with a range of 250 kilometersat the 1991 Frankfurt Motor Show (15).The principal technical problem for electricvehicles is the development of lowercostbatteries with faster recharge times,longer durability, and lower weight.References and Notes1. Jennifer Parmelee, "Kuwaiti Emir SnuffsOut Last Iraqi-Lit Oil Fire," WashingtonPost (November 7,1991), p. Al.2. Richard L. Holman, "Kuwait DousingHalfway Done," Wall Street journal (September12,1991, New York), p. A12.3. "Kuwait's Last Oil-Well Fire From GulfWar is Put Out," Wall Street Journal (November7,1991, New York), p. A10.4. Op. at. 1.45. "Kuwait's Oil Industry Slowly Recovering,"Oil and Gas Journal, Vol.'89, No. 35(September 2,1991), p. 36.6. "More Nations Join Kuwait Well Fire Campaign,"Oil and Gas Journal, Vol. 89, No. 33(August 19,1991), p. 19.7. Op. cit. 1.8. Op. cit. 3.9. Op. cit. 1.10. "Soviet Oil Industry Woes May Extend Crisis,"Oil and Gas Journal, Vol. 89, No. 22(June 3,1991), pp. 65-66.11. Bid., p. 70.12. Los Angeles Department of Water andPower (DWP), "Going Electric" (DWP, LosAngeles, June 1991), pp. 4-5.13. "New York State EV Hearings Set," ElectricVehicle Progress (Sepember 1,1991), p. 6.14. "Japan Gears Up for EV Market WithThese Prototypes," Electric Vehicle Progress(September 1,1991), p. 3.15. "BMW Unveils New EV Prototype," ElectricVehicle Progress (September 15,1991),p.l.joules) while plants in the United States and Japan generallyuse half as much energy (39). With proper designand operation, many new industrial plants in developingcountries could reduce fuel consumption by 30 percentor more, and achieve considerably greater savingsusing state-of-the-art industrial processes (40).The transport sector is generally the largest consumerof petroleum in developing countries, frequentlyaccounting for more than 40 percent of oilconsumption. Between 60 and 80 percent of transportfuel is consumed by vehicles; a major factor influencingtransport fuel consumption is the growth in demandfor passenger vehicles. Car ownership increasednearly 10 percent annually in developing countries inthe 1970s and 5 percent annually in the 1980s (41). (SeeChapter 17, "Land Cover and Settlements," Table17.3.) These vehicles are often less energy efficient thanthose found in industrialized countries, however, andalternatives to individual car use—such as the masstransit systems found in Europe and Japan—have re-150World Resources 1992-93

Energy 10ceived little attention in the developing world, oftenbecause of lack of interest by funding agencies.Buildings and agriculture are the fastest growing energysectors, increasing by a combined rate of almost 6percent per year during the 1973-86 period (42). Buildingsin developing countries are often much less energyefficient than in industrialized countries. Opportunitiesto improve efficiency include better heating,cooling, and lighting equipment; appropriate useof energy controls; better insulation (particularly incold climates); and the use of reflective roof coatings,shading, and natural lighting (particularly for warmclimates).The major uses of energy for agriculture include irrigationpumping, tractors, and post-harvest drying andcuring, all of which frequently operate below efficiencylevels common in industrialized countries. InPakistan, for example, the tubewell pumps used to irrigatefield crops operate at only 30 percent of the averageefficiency that is technically achievable; a 20 percentimprovement could be achieved in these systemsthrough cost-effective retrofits (43).Extrapolations show that even a modest increase inenergy efficiency could have major benefits for developingcountries. Conservation measures could significantlyreduce projected increases in energy consumption(by 25 percent), capital expenditures on energy(by 50 percent), and CO2 emissions (by 30 percent), by2025 (44). However, there are major barriers to increasedenergy efficiency. The 1979 oil crisis prompted industrializedcountries to reduce energy intensity by developingmore energy-efficient products and strategies, butfew of these techniques have been established effectivelyin developing countries. Indeed, until recentlythere was a prevailing belief that energy efficiency wasa strategy applicable only to the relatively stable economiesof the developed world rather than the rapidlygrowing economies of the developing world.It should be noted that the countries of Central Europeface many of the same energy problems as developingcountries. They, too, face rapidly rising energydemand, with a resultant increase in debt, constraintson capital, and growing environmental threats. The efficiencywith which energy services are provided iswell below that achieved in the rest of the industrializedworld, and thus energy efficiency offers substantialopportunities in these countries as well. However,the economic structure of Central European countriesare quite different from those of developing nations,so they will not be treated in this section. Nevertheless,many of the following options for technology cooperationin energy efficiency are also applicable to CentralEurope. (See Chapter 5, "Regional Focus: Central Europe.")Least-Cost Energy PlanningDeveloping countries have traditionally viewed energyconservation either as unwanted energy curtailment,or as a strategy that can make only a marginaldifference in future energy demand. Rarely has conservationbeen viewed as a resource in itself that can bedirectly integrated into energy planning. This approachis gaining increasing legitimacy in industrializedcountries, however, and its first widespreadapplication in U.S. and Canadian electric sectors is resultingin dramatic reductions in the need to buildnew power plants.This approach, known as "integrated resource" electricplanning or least-cost utility planning, involves aneffort to develop and implement a power resource acquisitionstrategy at the lowest possible cost. Conservationor demand-management resources are treated ona par with supply resources. The process involves forecastingfuture energy service needs (e.g., lighting orheating) for each energy end-use sector, and then estimatingthe costs of meeting those needs through a varietyof supply or conservation resources (includingimprovements in the efficiency of the services needed).Finally, a "supply" curve is erected, in which the leastcostly options are purchased first (45).Although this approach has been used extensivelyby the electric sector in North America, knowledge ofleast-cost utility planning is lacking in most developingcountries. There are some exceptions: analyses ofthis type have already been done for Brazil, CostaRica, Jamaica, Karnataka State in India, and Thailand(46) (47) (48) (49) (50). The impact of this approach can besubstantial. In a preliminary analysis of Thailand, projectionsshow that power demand in the year 2000could be reduced significantly by a strong conservationpolicy that emphasizes improved efficiency ofelectric end-use services (51).The integrated resource approach to energy planningis not fully developed. Even in the electric sector,differences of opinion remain on such issues as how tomeasure and price conserved energy. Nevertheless,the approach remains a powerful tool for integratingenergy efficiency into energy planning. And becausethis approach inevitably requires local adaptation, analystsand planners in developing countries need onlylearn the general principles—how energy conservationsupply curves are constructed and integrated with energysupply options—rather than highly detailed formulationsfor applying the approach in specificinstances. This involves the development of writtenmaterials as well as training in the computer applicationsof this technique. A 10-day training course onend-use-oriented energy analysis, held in Thailand in1989 for academics and government and utility officials,is a rare example of the type of transfer processrequired (52).New Modes of Technology CooperationTechnology cooperation has traditionally been viewedas a process of moving technologies developed in theindustrialized world to the developing world. However,changing world conditions, the diffuse nature ofenergy efficiency implementation, and the structuraldifferences between the industrialized world and thedeveloping world render this simplistic approach outdated.In fact, successful technology cooperation involvesa variety of techniques, including improvedWorld Resources 1992-93151

10 EnergyBox 10.1 The Refrigerator Factor: A Model Technology Cooperation IssueAs demand for refrigerators, air conditioners,and similar products begins to rise indeveloping countries, so do concerns forthe environmental effects of meeting thisdemand. Aside from the obvious implicationsfor the energy sector, the risingnumber of cooling devices in developingcountries poses a serious threat to thestratospheric ozone layer unless alternativesto present refrigerant technology—which is based on ozone-destroyingchlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)—are madeavailable (l). Refrigeration is the largestand fastest-growing use of CFCs in the developingworld.CFC alternatives pose a critical test casefor the much broader issues of technologycooperation between industrialized anddeveloping countries. If the sharply focusedproblem of affordable CFC alternativesfor the developing world cannot besolved, there may be little hope of resolvingthe much thornier problems of providingenergy-efficient technology to developingcountries to minimize future carbonemissions (2).THE MONTREAL PROTOCOLThe international community has takenunprecedented steps to control and ultimatelyban the production of CFCs andother ozone-depleting substances (ODSs)—such as halons and carbon tetrachloride—bythe year 2000. The Vienna Conventionand the subsequent MontrealProtocol on Substances That Deplete theOzone Layer, adopted in 1987 andstrengthened in 1990, set strict timetablesfor phasing out CFCs and other ODSs by2000 and established rules governing internationaltrade in ODSs and productsbased on these materials (3). In late 1991,new scientific evidence that the ozone isthinning more quickly than predictedprompted calls to speed up the phase out(4). (See Chapter 13, "Atmosphere and Climate.")About 70 nations (representing over 90percent of global CFC production and consumption)had signed the convention byJuly 1991. Some 30 of the signatories aredeveloping nations, several of which, includingEgypt and Mexico, were amongthe first to ratify the treaty and take stepsto comply (5) (6). In many ways, these developingnations face a more formidable taskin reforming their CFC use than nationswith greater financial and technologicalmeans. In recognition of their special circumstances,the Montreal Protocol allowsdeveloping nations a 10-year grace periodbefore full compliance is required (7).Nonetheless, many developing nationsremain skeptical of the Montreal Protocoland have refused to sign the treaty. Leadersin these countries fear the expense ofswitching to ozone-friendly technology.Nearly 90 percent of the cost of complyingwith the Montreal Protocol will derivefrom conversion of refrigeration equipment(8).In response to this concern, the treatywas amended in 1990 to create a $160 millionfund, financed by the largest CFCusers, to compensate developing countriesfor the added costs they incur in followinga CFC-free path. The establishment of thismultilateral fund demonstrates a recognitionthat rapid compliance by developingcountries is essential to the treaty's success,even though these countries now accountfor only about 16 percent of totalCFC consumption (9).Behind this recognition are several compellingfacts. CFC molecules are longlivedand remarkably efficient at ozonedepletion—a single CFC molecule can participatein the destruction of 100,000 ozonemolecules do). Thus, even relatively lowlevels of CFC emissions can have far-reachingeffects. A number of developing countriesare poised to boost their CFC consumptionsignificantly in the next decadeas their economies expand unless suitablealternatives are made available in the nextfew years.China and India are cases in point. Betweenthem, they represent about 40 percentof the world's population, butconsume only 5 percent of all CFCs (li).That could change quickly if the goal ofsupplying refrigerators to their citizens ismet with units that use CFC-based technology.In India, where refrigeration accountsfor nearly 75 percent of all CFC use 02),the number of refrigerators is expected toreach almost 80 million units by 2010, upfrom just over only 6 million in 1989 (13). InChina, the current total of 30 million refrigeratorsis expected to almost double by1996, with production capacity reachingover 11 million units per year 04). Hencethe concern that these nations' developmentgoals be met in an environmentallysound manner.To address this concern, Protocol signatoriesagreed to increase the multilateralfund to $240 million if India and Chinasigned the Protocol, with the extra $80 millionreserved for the use of the two nationsand other new signatories 05). With this incentive,China declared in June 1991 that itwould sign the amended Protocol, scheduledto take effect January 1,1992 06).THE CHALLENGE OFTECHNOLOGY COOPERATIONAlternatives have been found for many ofthe major product applications of CFCs.However, instituting these alternatives indeveloping countries will require the directassistance of the private sector in industrializedcountries, where the ownershipof these technologies and the expertiseto apply them often resides 07) 08). Significantly,the industrial sectors in somedeveloping countries—Mexico, Brazil,Egypt, and China, for example—also haveimportant technology to share, so the flowof technology between industrialized anddeveloping regions could go both directions.However, although an unprecedentedlevel of technical exchange is expected—someof it free of charge—no oneexpects the process of technology transferto be painless or without cost 09) (20).For example, the use of CFC-like substitutesthat break down more quickly in theatmosphere is expected to be a popularstrategy in industrialized nations, becauseit will reduce overall disruption of manufacturingprocesses that rely on CFCs

Energy 10Box 10.1placed too much emphasis on these exoticcompounds, skewing the search for CFCalternatives away from lower-cost, lessglamorous options (29). Yet such optionsdo exist. For example, ammonia-based refrigerationsystems (which predate CFCtechnology) offer several advantages, includingan abundant and royalty-free supplyof the chemical and an energy efficiencysuperior to CFC—a factor that mayeventually weigh heavily in its favor inthe years ahead (30). Disadvantages centeron safety concerns: ammonia is toxic andflammable, which could make it inappropriatefor domestic applications, especiallyin densely populated or earthquake-proneareas. Nonetheless, many large commercialammonia refrigeration systems existtoday, and commercial applications couldbe expanded in the future (3D (32).Another promising alternative to CFCsfor low-cost refrigeration is propane. Likeammonia, it is cheap, plentiful, and moreenergy efficient than CFC refrigerants. Propanecan be used in standard refrigeratorsbut performs better when installed in aspecially designed unit, where as little as10 milliliters are needed. Like ammonia,however, propane is an older technologyand therefore suffers from an image problemthat has kept it from being seriouslyreconsidered, despite technical advancesthat have improved its efficiency andsafety (33).Without underestimating the magnitudeof the challenge or the obstacles, most observersare impressed by the progress todate and hopeful that the sense of globalurgency surrounding the CFC issue—togetherwith technical cooperation and financialaid—will lead to success (34) (35)(36). Many developing countries are alreadyacting to phase out CFCs, ratherthan exercising the full 10-year grace periodpermitted under the Protocol (37). By1990, for instance, the Mexican governmenthad already negotiated agreementswith both CFC producers and major CFCconsumingindustries to sharply curtailCFC use (38).Observers also believe that marketforces will help the process. Over time,CFC substitutes will grow less expensive,and expertise in adapting these alternativesto local conditions will grow. The privatesector will undoubtedly view theswitch to CFC alternatives as an economicopportunity and will form joint ventureswith developing country manufacturers,providing needed capital for equipment redesignand retooling in hopes of tappingfuture demand for consumer items in thedeveloping world (39) (40). In the meantime,the Protocol's trade restrictions will makeit more difficult for nonsignatory nationsto import or export CFC-containing products.A country such as India, whichhopes to expand its refrigerator exports,could find itself frozen out of lucrativemarkets if it does not sign the Protocol (41).Finally, as mentioned above, developingcountries themselves have already begunto provide substantial innovations in thesearch for alternatives to CFCs, and expertsexpect that they will act increasinglyas the source of shared technologies ratherthan passive recipients (42). For example,Mexico is a recognized leader in adoptingalternate propellants for use in aerosolspray cans (43), and Brazil has recently developeda more efficient refrigerator compressor(44). China has also conductedsubstantial research into substitute refrigerantsand is currently testing refrigeratorsequipped with a range of substitutes, includingone that is different than the compoundexpected to dominate the U.S. andEuropean markets (45).References and Notes1. Armin Rosencranz and Reina Milligan,"CFC Abatement: The Needs of DevelopingCountries," Atnbio, Vol. 19, No. 6-7(1990), pp. 312-315.2. "Intellectual Property and TechnologyTransfer: An Uneasy Relationship," GlobalEnvironmental Change Report, Vol. 2, No. 18(Cutter Information Corp., Arlington, Virginia,September 28,1990), pp. 1-2.3. United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), Report of the Second Meeting of theParties to the Montreal Protocol on SubstancesThat Deplete the Ozone Layer (UNEP, Nairobi,Kenya, June 1990), pp. 1- 68.4. R. Davis and B. Rosewicz, "Panel SeesOzone Thinning, Intensifying PoliticalHeat," Wall Street journal (October 23,1991), p. Bl.5. Arno Rosemarin, "Some Background onCFCs," Ambio, Vol. 19, No. 6-7 (1990),p. 280.6. Elizabeth Creel, Project Manager, TechnologyTransfer and Industry Program, Divisionof Global Change, U. S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency, Washington,D.C., 1991 (personal communication).7. Op. cit. 3, p. 31.8. Debora MacKenzie, "Cheaper Alternativesfor CFCs," New Scientist (June 30,1990),p. 39.9. Op. cit. 1, pp. 312-313.10. F. Sherwood Rowland, "StratosphericOzone Depletion by Chlorofluorocarbons,"Ambio, Vol. 19, No. 6-7 (1990),p. 281.11. Op. cit. 1, p. 312.12. Op. cit. 8.13. Touche Ross Management Consultants, ReducingConsumption of Ozone Depleting Substancesin India; Phase 1: The Cost of ComplyingWith the Montreal Protocol (Touche RossConsultants, London, England, 1990),p. 55.14. Ivar Isaksen, Lindsey Roke, and MichaelFergus, Report of a United Nations DevelopmentProgramme Mission to InvestigateOzone Layer Protection in China (NationalEnvironmental Protection Agency, Beijing,1990), Sections 4.1.3-5, and 4.4.1.15. Bureau of National Affairs (BNA), "Partiesto Montreal Protocol Agree to Phase OutCFCs, Help Developing Nations," InternationalEnvironment Reporter (BNA, Rockville,Maryland, July 1990), p. 275.16. Stephen Seidel, Deputy Director, GlobalChange Division, U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, Washington, D.C., 1991(personal communication).17. Op. cit. 10, p. 288.18. Renee Hancher, Manager of InternationalTrade, Air Conditioning and RefrigerationInstitute, Arlington, Virginia, 1991 (personalcommunication).19. Ibid.20. Kevin Fay, Executive Director, Alliance forResponsible CFC Policy, Arlington, Virginia,March 1991 (personal communication).21. John S. Hoffman, "Replacing CFCs: TheSearch for Alternatives," Ambio, Vol. 19,No. 6 (1990), pp. 329-333.22. Op. cit. 8.23. Op. cit. 2.24. Op. cit. 2.25. Op. cit. 1, p. 315.26. Op. cit. 2, p. 2.27. Alan Miller, Executive Director, Center forGlobal Change, College Park, Maryland,March 1991 (personal communication).28. Op. cit. 14, Sections 4.8.1-3.29. Op. cit. 8.30. Op. cit. 14, Section 6.6.5.31. Op. cit. 10, pp. 288-289.32. Op. cit. 6.33. Op. cit. 8, p. 40.34. Op. cit. 6.35. Op. cit. 6.36. Op. cit. 1, p. 315.37. Op. cit. 6.38. Mexican Secretariat for Urban Developmentand Ecology, Mexican Chamber of Industries,and U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, Case Study of the Cost to Mexicoof Protecting the Ozone Layer (United NationsEnvironment Programme, Nairobi,Kenya, 1990), pp. 12-13.39. Guy D. Phillips, "CFCs in the DevelopingNations: A Major Economic DevelopmentOpportunity. Will the Institutions Help orHinder?" Ambio, Vol. 19, No. 6-7 (1990),pp. 316-319.40. Op. cit. 1, p. 314.41. Op. cit. 1, pp. 313-314.42. Op. cit. 6.43. Deanna Richards, Senior Program Officer,Technology and Environment, NationalAcademy of Engineering, Washington,D.C., 1991 (personal communication).44. Howard S. Geller, Efficient Energy Use: ADevelopment Strategy for Brazil (AmericanCouncil foran Energy-Efficient Economy,Washington, D.C., 1991), pp. 26-27,129.45. Op. cit. 14, Sections 4.8.1-3.World Resources 1992-93153

10 Energyinformation dissemination; expanded export, licensing,and joint venture activities; joint technology development;and the establishment of model programs.(See Box 10.1.)ENERGY EFFICIENCY DATA BASES ANDCLEARINGHOUSESOnce they decide to integrate energy efficiency into energyplanning, developing countries need informationon the energy efficient technologies available. Many, ifnot most, of these technologies are not presently availablein developing countries. Thus, there is a need forreliable, impartial information on available products,including a detailed description of the technology itself,real-world examples of how it is applied, projectedenergy savings, range of costs, how to get accessto the product, and a list of further readings about thespecific technology.In response to the oil crises of the 1970s, many industrializedcountries established data bases or clearinghousesthat contain information on energy-efficienttechnologies, but their usefulness to developing countrieshas been very limited:• Most of these data bases are tailored to industrializedcountry users. The information they contain has limitedapplication to other countries, and some are noteven in languages that can be easily understood by developingcountry users.• Many data bases do not determine the quality of theinformation they provide, and some contain purely bibliographicinformation with little additional analysis.• Access to some of these data bases is limited to industrializedcountries.• Even where access is not limited, most of the availabledata bases make little effort to "market" their productsin developing countries.• Even the few data bases specifically oriented to developingcountry users tend to be biased in favor of "appropriate,"low-technology options (e.g., wood stoves)aimed largely at the rural sector, rather than high-technologyapplications for the modern sectors of developingcountries (53).The International Institute for Energy Conservationhas a catalogue designed for developing country userswith information on specific data in existing technologydata bases, how these data are reviewed, and howto access such information (54). Another effort to addressthe shortcomings of existing technology databases launched by Lund University, with initial supportfrom Vattenfall, the Swedish State Power Board,is "The Technology Menu for Efficient End Use of Energy"(55). Designed as a "first-stop" informationresource for a broad range of energy decisionmakers,it presents technology descriptions, technical and costdata, and illustrative economic analyses, with an emphasison advanced technology and advances in existingtechnologies. Although initially targeted toSweden, its developers intend to orient the TechnologyMenu to developing country users: indeed, PrincetonUniversity is adapting and expanding the TechnologyMenu for application to India.Even when information on energy-efficient technologiesis available, technology dissemination will be limitedunless information is also available on the policiesthat will create demand for the technologies. No suchdata base currently exists. As part of its charter, the InternationalEnergy Agency, whose membership consistslargely of industrialized countries, publishesannual reports on the energy policies and programs ofmember countries (56). These reports include a sectionon energy conservation, but the descriptions lack detailand there is no independent verification of their accuracy.Many governments use the reports to publicizeintentions rather than actions. Finally, there is noanalysis on the effectiveness of the policies, particularly,how much energy has been saved. To addressthis need, the International Institute for Energy Conservationis preparing a policy data base that will focus initiallyon four subjects: least-cost utility planning; policiesto promote energy efficiency in buildings; policiesto promote energy efficiency in appliances; and policiesto promote energy efficiency in motor vehicles (57).EXPORTS, LICENSING, AND JOINT VENTURESEnergy-Efficient Imports and ExportsEven when information on technologies and policies isavailable, these technologies may still not be accessiblein many countries. Most of these technologies haveevolved in industrialized countries, and the companiesthat produce them have focused on domestic marketsfor several reasons. First, there is a widespread perceptionthat developing countries are not interested in improvingenergy efficiency. Second, there is both a lackof knowledge about how to market in developingcountries and a sense that exporting to them is difficult.The sizable tariffs placed on imported goods bymany of these countries is often cited as an example ofthis difficulty. Third, potential exporters are discouragedby the small market for energy-utilizing goods(e.g., lamps and refrigerators), whether efficient or inefficient,in developing countries. Finally, many of thesecompanies, especially the smaller ones, simply do nothave the capacity to market goods in these countries.Compared to the energy supply industry, the energyefficiency industry is diffuse, highly disaggregated,and poorly organized. In the United States, for example,the energy efficiency industry has not yet formeda consolidated trade association. Nevertheless, the potentialmarket for energy efficiency exports to developingcountries is substantial. For example, a recent studyestimated that an investment of $20 billion would be requiredto meet the technical energy conservation potentialof India, one of the largest developing countries (58).A variety of options exist to address export problems.From the perspective of the industrialized countries,one mechanism for creating demand for energyefficientproducts and services without requiring individualcompanies to market their products is to developlists of product and service vendors and makethem available in developing countries. In Tunisia, forexample, such a list is being compiled for many Euro-154World Resources 1992-93

Energy 10pean vendors (59). Briefings for companies on specificmarket opportunities in specific countries would alsobe useful, in addition to trade missions for energy efficiencyvendors. Both approaches have been used to alimited extent by both the U.S. and California governments.Another mechanism for industrialized countrieswould be to target assistance to meet the financing andinsurance needs of energy efficiency vendors workingin developing countries. Many programs assist smallerbusinesses in marketing overseas, but few have specificallytargeted the energy efficiency industry. Finally,new institutions could be created to facilitate the marketingof energy efficiency products which go beyondthe capabilities of individual companies. For example,energy efficiency export trading companies could beestablished. Several energy efficiency vendors have attemptedto use generic export trading companies tomarket their products. These trading companies, themost dominant and largest of which are Japanese,were created to facilitate export activity, particularlyby smaller companies that do not have the resources tomarket widely in other countries nor to establish relationshipswith local enterprises in each country thatwill be responsible for selling their goods. Unfortunately,the experience to date with trading companiesby energy efficiency vendors has not been good. Trainingfor the product purchasers on how to use—or evenprogram—energy efficiency products frequently is required,particularly if system design changes are required;this is a capability most trading companieslack. Trading companies with specific expertise in energyefficiency products could potentially addressthis problem.From the perspective of the developing countries, reducingtariffs for energy-efficient goods and services isan important strategy for encouraging imports. Indiaand Thailand have both developed policies to reducetariffs on selected energy-efficient products (60) (61). Anothercritical mechanism is for the governments of developingcountries to indicate their interest in seeingenergy-efficient imports, and to invite trade missionsof companies to explore the import potential. A trademission of U.S. companies to Thailand in April 1991,for example, resulted from a request by the Thai governmentto a U.S. government agency (62).Licensing and Joint VenturesHowever beneficial they might initially be, imports ofenergy-efficient products can only be a transitionalstrategy. As the internal market for these productsgrows, the governments of developing countries arelikely to want more of the benefits to accrue to their owneconomies in the form of increased domestic employmentand industrial capacity. For effective technology cooperationto occur, therefore, both licensing and jointventure production of those goods needs to evolve.Many of the strategies described above to encourageexports and imports of energy-efficient products couldalso be used to encourage licensing and joint manufacturingventures. Industrialized country governmentscould also provide investment and insurance assistanceto energy efficiency companies seeking to undertakesuch arrangements. At the same time, developingcountries could offer interested companies detailed informationabout how to set up joint ventures and licensingarrangements.JOINT DEVELOPMENTDirect export and eventual licensing or joint manufacturingof products can address many issues of energyefficiency in developing countries, but not all of them.Circumstances in developing countries can be so completelydifferent from industrialized countries thatproducts developed for the latter are not directly applicableto the former. For example, many developingcountries have a problem maintaining the voltage levelsof their power supply; voltage fluctuations can befrequent and substantial. As a result, energy-efficientelectric products developed for industrialized countries,where voltage regulation is generally not a problem,may not function effectively in developingcountries. Products that are affected include many motors,appliances, and lamps.In addition, some of the most promising technologiesfor specific industries in developing countries arenot likely to be developed in industrialized countries,regardless of their benefits (including energy efficiency),and thus will never be available for export todeveloping countries. In response to market demands,industrialized economies are moving away fromheavy, energy-intensive industries toward more service-orientedindustries. Companies in the industrializedcountries may be unwilling to develop innovationsthat promise energy savings for heavier industrieswhen they face declining demand and revenuesin this area. Examples include the plasmasmelt processfor steelmaking (which improves energy efficiencythrough the use of a very high temperature plasma forthe final reduction of iron ore) and the use of biomassintegratedgasifiers and steam injected gas turbines forsugar processing (which convert waste residue to energy,with the potential of producing more than 600kilowatt-hours of electricity per metric ton of cane processed)(63) (64).A growing trend in the developing world is to importmanufactured products from other developingcountries. Indeed, exports of machinery and transportequipment from developing countries have increasednearly 50-fold since 1970, growing from 2 to 10 percentof total world output (65). Many of these products areunique to developing countries—the three-wheeledbajaj of India is an example. They fill an importantniche for the importing countries, particularly the poorerones that cannot afford to import similar but more expensiveproducts from the industrialized countries. Themost significant exporters of these products to other developingcountries are Brazil and Mexico, althoughIndia and China are rising in importance (66) (67).As a result, the flow is no longer just from industrializedto developing countries. Instead, several tiers oftechnology flows are evolving: from industrializedWorld Resources 1992-93155

10 EnergyBox 10.2 The Flow of Energy-Efficient Products from Developing to DevelopedCountriesWhile most of the capacity for producingenergy-efficient products is in industrializedcountries, there are notable exceptionswhere products are manufactured indeveloping countries almost exclusivelyfor use in industrialized countries.Embraco, a subsidiary of the Braziliancompany Brasmotor, manufactures one ofthe most energy-efficient compressorsavailable in refrigerators in the UnitedStates. The Embraco compressor, whichwas developed in response to Americanenergy efficiency standards, cannot beused directly in the Brazilian market becauseit cannot withstand the voltage fluctuationscharacteristic of that market. Thecompany has not yet attempted to upgradeits compressor for use in its homemarket because of a perceived lack of marketdemand. Nevertheless, some characteristicsof the U.S.-bound compressor havebeen incorporated into Embraco's domesticproducts, with a 10 to 15 percent improvementin efficiency 0).Another example is Philips Mexico,which produces 6 million compact fluorescentlamps annually at its Monterreyplant, mostly for the U.S. market. Onlyabout 200,000 per year are sold in Mexico;the reason, according to Philips, is thehigh initial cost of the lamps. The companyhas not found substantial problemswith voltage fluctuations, particularly inthe urban regions where they would betargeted. To stimulate domestic demandfor the lamps, Philips Mexico has engagedin some demonstration programs of compactfluorescents. In all cases, the demonstrationshave been small: 500 lamps inPuebla, near Mexico City; 750 in Hermosillon the Pacific coast; and 29 on a chickenfarm in Culiacon, also near Mexico City.In each case, the lamps were provided tothe Comision Federal de Electricidad, thenational electric utility, which then gavethe lamps to participants (2).References and Notes1. Howard S. Geller, Efficient Energy Use: ADevelopment Strategy for Brazil (AmericanCouncil for an Energy-Efficient Economy,Washington, D.C., 1991), pp. 26-27,129.2. Christine Eibs Singer, Senior Associate, LaRocco Associates, New York, 1991 (personalcommunication).countries to wealthier developing countries; fromwealthier to poorer developing countries; and, in someinstances, from developing to developed countries.(See Box 10.2.) A strategy that focuses only on exporting,licensing, or establishing joint manufacturing venturesfor products developed in industrialized countriesfails to recognize this new reality.A promising alternative is the creation of joint technologyresearch and development efforts between developedand developing countries, with the goal ofbringing the necessary products to market. Both sidesbring important qualities to the table: industrializedcountries tend to have more expertise in high-technologyareas; developing countries have more expertisein the product needs of their regions and the conditionsunder which the products must operate, as wellas the manufacturing experience of designing and producingtechnologies that meet these needs. Joint technologydevelopment programs are not appropriate forall developing countries because they require strongresearch capabilities and sufficient manufacturing experiencefor domestic and export markets. At a minimum,however, the largest developing countries—China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico—shouldall be candidates for joint technology developmentventures, as should many of the heavily industrializedCentral European nations. Other smaller but rapidly,industrializing and export-oriented countries, such asThailand, Malaysia, and Chile, would also be appropriatecandidates.Unfortunately, there are currently very few jointtechnology development ventures between developedand developing countries, much less any that focus onenergy efficiency needs. India has been an exception:with funding from the U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment (U.S. AID), the Program for Advancementof Commercial Technology (PACT) was establishedin the 1980s with the goal of accelerating thepace and quality of technological innovation in productsand processes relevant to the economic developmentof India. Administered by the Industrial Creditand Investment Corporation of India, which has alsoprovided some of the investment capital, PACT providesgrants to support up to 50 percent of the costs ofIndo-U.S. joint venture research and development projectsaimed at producing commercially viable productsor processes. If the product or process is successfullycommercialized, the joint venture partners must repay200 percent of the grant through royalty fees based ongross product sales. A total of $6.8 million has been investedin 18 projects, ranging from food processing todeveloping a cathode ray controller for Indian-languagecomputer terminals (68). Based on the positiveresponse to the PACT program, U.S. AID helped supporta second technology development program in1987 aimed solely at the Indian energy sector. Knownas the Program for Commercial Energy Research(PACER), it has a budget of $20 million (69). Energy efficiencyprojects are eligible for both the PACT andPACER programs.MODEL PROGRAMSBecause energy efficiency requires related actions frommany participants, the successful initial transfer of aspecific energy-efficient technology to a developingcountry does not automatically ensure its widespreadadoption. The progress in energy efficiency achievedin industrialized countries following the oil crises ofthe 1970s resulted from a variety of policies and programsto spur the adoption of efficient products. Thesehave included higher energy prices, differential pricingon products according to their energy efficiency, efficiencystandards, the encouragement of energy servicecompanies (which contract with a facility to assumeits energy management, invest in energy conservation,and then draw their profits from the savings),and the establishment of electric utility-based leastcostor integrated resource planning.156World Resources 1992-93

Energy 10At present, few of these policies have been translatedinto action in developing countries, nor havemany of these countries had the opportunity to developunique programs of their own. As alreadynoted, some countries are considering the possible implementationof least-cost utility planning. Buildingand/or appliance energy efficiency standards arebeing considered by a variety of countries, includingJamaica, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia,and Brazil (70) (71) (72). Other strategies are beingpursued in Tunisia, Brazil, Pakistan, and Hungary (73).However, in all these cases, the countries lack modelsin other developing countries that they can follow. Thecreation of such models would go far in assisting theadoption of policies that could lead to the widespreadimplementation of energy efficiency technologies.In particular, models are needed in the transport sector.This sector is the largest or second-largest consumerof energy in most developing countries, and thesingle largest consumer of oil, yet energy efficiency effortshave lagged badly. In transportation more thanany other sector, translating the experiences of industrializedcountries to developing countries is problematicbecause the conditions are so different. Oneunique transportation model that has not yet been sufficientlyanalyzed is the experience of Curitiba, Brazil.Beginning in the 1960s, the city pursued an aggressiveprogram of mass transit development combined withland-use planning. Five dedicated bus lanes radiateout from the city center, connecting feeder buses thatmove between the arteries and local buses that servelocal neighborhoods. Major residential and commercialdevelopment has been limited to areas near thesearteries. Seventy percent of Curitiba's population nowuses the system (74), and despite the fact that per capitaautomobile ownership is among the highest in Brazil,fuel consumption per vehicle is among the lowest (75).FUTURE DIRECTIONSThe United Nations Conference on Environment andDevelopment, to be held in Brazil in 1992, will have asone of its major themes the successful transfer to developingcountries of environmentally sustainable technologies.However, the traditional view of how totransfer technology between industrialized and developingcountries does not really apply to technology cooperationin energy efficiency. The export of productsmanufactured in industrialized countries is an importantfactor in improving energy efficiency in developingcountries, particularly in the near term. If theseproducts are to be widely used within developing countries,however, they must eventually be manufacturedthere. Because so many of the technologies needed inthe developing countries do not exist in the developedcountries, there is also a need for joint technology developmentprograms. Finally, there is a need for informationand model programs to create widespreadawareness of and demand for these technologies.Conditions and Trends was written by Norbert Henninger, WorldResources research analyst. Focus On Technology Cooperation inEnergy Efficiency was written by Deborah LynnBleviss, executivedirector of the International Institute for Energy Conservation,Washington, D.C. Box 10.1 was written by Gregory Mock, a California-basedauthor.References and Notes1. United Nations Statistical Office, U.N. EnergyTape (United Nations, New York, May1991) (on diskette).2. Ibid.3. There are two conventions to convert primaryelectricity production (geothermal,hydro, nuclear, and wind) in energy balances:conventional fuel equivalent and physicalenergy input. Conventional fuelequivalent is defined as the quantity of fossilfuels required to generate a given quantityof electricity in a conventional thermalpower plant, assuming 30 percent efficiency.Physical energy input assesses electricityproduction at its heat value (1kilowatt hour = 3.6 million joules). The datain the present chapter and Chapter 21, "Energyand Materials," account for primaryelectricity using the physical energy inputconvention. Studies that use conventionalfuel equivalents yield slightly different totalsand production shares.4. Op. dt. 1.5. Op. dt. 1.6. United Nations, Energy Issues and Options forDeveloping Countries (Taylor and Francis,New York, 1989), p. 130.7. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), The State of theEnvironment (OECD, Paris, 1991), p. 226.8. Ibid., p. 236.9. Op. cit. 1.10. Op. cit. 7, pp. 222 and 225.11. World Resources Institute in collaborationwith the United Nations Environment Programmeand the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, World Resources 1990-91(Oxford University Press, New York, 1990),p. 145.12. United Nations Conference on Trade andDevelopment (UNCTAD), UNCTAD CommodityYearbook 1990 (United Nations, NewYork, 1990), pp. S, 46.13. Jeremy Russell, "Environmental Issues inEastern Europe: Setting an Agenda" (RoyalInstitute of International Affairs and WorldConservation Union, London, 1990), p. 28.14. R. Caron Cooper and Lee Schipper, "EnergyUse and Conservation in the U.S.S.R.: Patterns,Prospects, and Problems," Energy(Pergamon, Elmsford, New York, forthcoming).15. International Energy Agency, World EnergyOutlook (Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development, Paris, 1982),p. 180.16. "Moscow Plans to Triple Nuclear EnergyCapacity," Financial Times, May 29,1991,n.p.17. International Energy Agency, World EnergyStatistics and Balances: 1985-1988 (Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development,Paris, 1990), pp. 308-332.18. Karen Schmidt, "Industrial Countries' Responsesto Global Climate Change" (Environmentaland Energy Study Institute,Washington, D.C, 1991), p. 7.19. Op. cit. 1.20. Op. cit. 1.21. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment,Energy in Developing Countries (U.S.Government Printing Office, Washington,D.C, January 1991), p. 100.22. International Energy Agency, Energy in Non-OECD Countries: Selected Topics 1988(OECD, Paris, 1988), p. 11.23. British Petroleum Company (BP), BP StatisticalReview of Energy (BP, London, June1991), p. 5.24. Op. cit. 21, p. 99.25. United Nations Statistical Office, Energy StatisticsYearbook (United Nations, New York,1991).26. Op. cit. 17, pp. 260-262.27. International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEABulletin, Vol. 32, No. 4 (1990), p. 51.28. Institute of Energy Economics and Politics(IPEP), International Energy 1988-1989: AnnualReport on Worldwide Energy Trends(IPEP, Paris, 1988), p. 270 (in French).29. Op. cit. 11, Table 21.3, pp. 320-321.30. Op. cit. U.31. Op. cit. 22, p. 43.32. Mark D. Levine, Ashok Gadgil, StephenMeyers, et al., "Energy Efficiency, Develop-World Resources 1992-93157

10 Energying Nations and Eastern Europe: A Reportto the U.S. Working Group on Global EnergyEfficiency" (International Institute forEnergy Conservation, Washington, D.C.,June 1991), p. 5.33. Ibid., Table 9, p. 34.34. U.S. Agency for International Development(U.S. AID), "Power Shortages in DevelopingCountries: Magnitude, Impacts, Solutions,and the Role of the Private Sector," a reportto the U.S. Congress (U.S. AID, Washington,D.C., March 1988), p. 26.35. Op. cit. 32, p. 2.36. Op. cit. 32, p. 33.37. Op. cit. 32, p. 13.38. Op. cit. 21, p. 64.39. Op. cit. 21, p. 65.40. Op. cit. 32, p. 18.41. Op. cit. 32, p. 19.42. Op. cit. 32, p. 13.43. Op. cit. 32, p. 19.44. Op. cit. 32, pp. 3,16.45. National Association of Regulatory UtilityCommissioners (NARUC), Least- Cost UtilityPlanning: A Handbook for Public Utility Commissioners,3 vols. (NARUC, Washington,D.C., 1988-89).46. Howard S. Geller, "Electricity Conservationin Brazil: Status Report and Analysis"(American Council for an Energy-EfficientEconomy, Washington, D.C., November1990).47. RCG/Hagler, Bailly, Inc., "Costa Rica:Power Sector Efficiency Assessment," draft,prepared for the Office of Energy, U.S.Agency for International Development, February1991.48. Conservation Law Foundation of New Englandin association with the Resources DevelopmentFoundation and Biomass UsersNetwork, "Power by Efficiency: An Assessmentof Improving Electrical Efficiency toMeet Jamaica's Power Needs," a report forthe Jamaica Public Service Company, June1990.49. Amulya K.N. Reddy, Gladys D. Sumithra,P. Balachandra, et al., "Energy Conservationin India-, A Development-Focussed End-Use-Oriented Energy Scenario for Karnataka;Part 2—Electricity" (Indian Institute of Science,Bangalore, April 1990).50. Mark Cherniack, Director of the Asia Office,International Institute for Energy Conservation,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personal communication).51. Eric D. Larson, ed., "Report on the 1989Thailand Workshop on End-Use OrientedEnergy Analysis" (International Institute forEnergy Conservation, Washington, D.C.,April 1990), p. i.52. Void., n.p.53. International Institute for Energy Conservation(IIEC), "Preliminary Notes on a Surveyof Databases and Information Centers"(IIEC, Washington, D.C., 1989) n.p.54. Matthew Grund, "The IIEC Technical InformationDirectory" (International Institutefor Energy Conservation, Washington, D.C.,forthcoming).55. Eric D. Larson, Lars J. Nilsson, and ThomasB. Johansson, "The Technology Menu for EfficientEnd Use of Energy: Volume 1—Movement of Material" (Environmental andEnergy Systems Studies, Lund University,Lund, Sweden, August 1989).56. International Energy Agency, Energy Policiesand Programmes oflEA Countries (Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development,Paris, published annually).57. The data base is being developed by the InternationalInstitute for Energy Conservation.58. Curtis S. Felix, "Assessment of U.S. Tradeand Investment Opportunities in Energy EfficiencyMarkets in India" (International Institutefor Energy Conservation, Washington,D.C., September 1990), p. E-4.59. Moncef Ben Abdallah, President, EnergyManagement Agency, Tunisia, 1990 (personalcommunication).60. R. Govinda Rao, "India—A Case Study,"draft (International Institute for Energy Conservation,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 54.61. Mark Cherniack, "Exporting Energy EfficientTechnologies: Briefing to InterestedU.S. Companies by the International Institutefor Energy Conservation and the Allianceto Save Energy," (International Institutefor Energy Conservation, Washington,D.C.June 11,1990).62. Op. cit. 50.63. Jose Goldemberg, Thomas B. Johansson,Amulya K. N. Reddy, et al., Energy for a SustainableWorld (Wiley Eastern Limited, NewDelhi, 1988), pp. 137-139, and 446.64. Jose Goldemberg, Thomas B. Johansson,Amulya K.N. Reddy, et al, "Energy for aSustainable World: An Update, with Emphasison Developing Countries," presentedat the Bellagio Seminar on Energy for a SustainableWorld, Bellagio, Italy, June 1990.65. United Nations Conference on Trade andDevelopment (UNCTAD), Handbook of InternationalTrade and Development Statistics,1989 (United Nations, New York, 1990), p.A36.66. Ibid., pp. 223, 224.67. United Nations Department of InternationalEconomic and Social Affairs, 1987 InternationalTrade Statistics Yearbook (United Nations,New York, 1989), pp. 109,173,421,and 575.68. Management Systems International (MSI),"USAID/India Program for the Advancementof Commercial Technology, MidtermEvaluation, Second Phase Report" (MSI,Washington, D.C., December 1989).69. David Jhirad, "Power Sector Innovation inDeveloping Countries: Implementing MultifacetedSolutions," Annual Review of Energy1990, Vol. 15 (1990), pp. 390-391.70. Michael Philips, "Energy Conservation Activitiesin Latin America and the Caribbean"(International Institute for Energy Conservation,Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 25.71. Op.rir.46,p. 102.72. Mark D. Levine, Program Leader, EnergyAnalysis Program, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory,Berkeley, California, 1991 (personalcommunication).73. Op. cit. 32, pp. 37-40.74. Op. cit. 70, p. 11.75. Jaime Lerner, "Curitiba Bus System," inDriving New Directions: Transportation Experiencesand Options in Developing Countries,Mia L. Birk and Deborah L. Bleviss, eds. (InternationalInstitute for Energy Conservation,Washington, D.C., 1991), pp. 85-89.158World Resources 1902-93

11. FreshwaterFreshwater resources are under severe and increasingenvironmental stress. About two thirds of global withdrawalsare used for agriculture and about one fourthfor industry. By the end of the century, withdrawalsfor agriculture will increase slightly and industrialwithdrawals will probably double. Industrial developmentand population growth will also add pollutantsto freshwater, unless governments boost their effortsto treat wastewater or prevent pollution.The world's supply of freshwater is unevenly distributedand frequently unreliable. Water shortages are alreadyacute in many regions, chronically so in areas ofEast and West Africa. Consumption is outstrippingsupplies in northern China, and shortages could reachcrisis proportions in the Middle East and North Africa,where the water issue is complicated by political tensions.To cope with shortages, some countries are turningto desalination of ocean water; other options includethe reuse of wastewater.The source of most freshwater is the river basin,which in most parts of the world is under severe environmentalstress. Farming, industry, and human settlementsall contribute to pollution in freshwater riverbasins. In the developing world, more than 95 percentof urban sewage is discharged untreated into surfacewaters. Loaded with bacteria and viruses, these watersare a major threat to human health.Industrial practices also are major contributors tofreshwater pollution, accounting for a large share ofpollution from heavy metals and toxic chemicals. Loggingoperations and agriculture add sediment and organicmatter, which adversely affects the habitats ofriver organisms and can smother coastal fishinggrounds hundreds of miles away. (For a discussion ofhow watershed pollution affects coastal areas, seeChapter 12, "Oceans and Coasts," Focus On CoastalPollution.)A few alternatives to conventional sewage treatmentare attracting attention. For example, wetlands can bedesigned to serve as simple, low-cost wastewater treatmentplants that use natural processes for filtrationand cleaning. Partially treated sewage also can be usedto raise fish. Waste reduction also offers potential:chemical companies that instituted waste reductionprograms have been able to reduce regulated waste byabout two thirds.Dealing with water resources is a political as well asan economic and technical challenge. Roughly one halfof the world's river basins are shared by two or morecountries. International cooperation in the managementof river basins has not been easy, but in a fewcases, such as the management of the Rhine River inEurope, it has produced some measurable environmentalbenefits.World Resources 1992-93159

11 FreshwaterCONDITIONS AND TRENDSGlobal TrendsFRESHWATER RESOURCESWater is the most abundant resource on Earth, coveringabout 71 percent of the planet's surface (l). Thetotal volume of water on the planet is immense—about 1.41 billion cubic kilometers. Spread evenly overthe Earth's surface, it would form a layer nearly 3,000meters deep. About 98 percent of this volume is in theworld's oceans and inland seas and is too salty fordrinking, growing crops, or for most industrial uses.About 3 percent is freshwater, but nearly all of thatamount (87 percent) is locked in ice caps or glaciers, inthe atmosphere or soil, or deep underground (2). Infact, if the world's total water supply were only 100 liters,the usable supply of freshwater would be only0.003 liter, or one-half teaspoon (3).Humankind's primary supply of freshwater is in rivers,lakes, and reservoirs. About 2,000 cubic kilometersof freshwater are flowing through the world's rivers atany one time; nearly one half the total is in SouthAmerica and another one fourth is in Asia. The actualamount available for use annually is much greater, becausewater in rivers is replaced roughly every 18-20days (4). Over a full year, the total amount of freshwaterflowing through rivers is about 41,000 cubic kilometers,including about 28,000 cubic kilometers of surfacerunoff and about 13,000 cubic kilometers of "stable"underground flow into rivers (5). Only about threefourths of the stable underground flow—9,000 cubic kilometers—iseasily accessible and economically usable(6). An additional 3,000 cubic kilometers of useful capacityis available from human-made lakes and reservoirs(7).The primary source of freshwater is precipitation.Global precipitation totals about 500,000 cubic kilometersper year, but only about one fifth of this amount—110,000 cubic kilometers—falls on land. About 65percent of continental rainfall evaporates and is transportedback to the atmosphere. The remaining precipitationeither stays on the surface—in rivers, lakes,wetlands, and reservoirs—or flows into the ground,where it is stored in groundwater aquifers (8).Global precipitation varies considerably. For example,heavy rainfall is characteristic of the AmazonBasin and parts of South and Southeast Asia; meagerrains typify the Middle East, North Africa, North-CentralAsia and Central Australia (9). Areas of low rainfallalso tend to be areas with unreliable precipitation. Reducedprecipitation is a threat in many regions; at least80 arid and semiarid countries, with about 40 percentof the world's population, have serious periodicdroughts (10). The Sahel region in Africa, for example,has experienced below-normal precipitation for twodecades. (See Figure 11.1.)Conversely, flooding is a major and apparentlygrowing problem in some regions. Bangladesh historicallysuffered major floods about once every 50 years,but in the 1970s and 1980s, the average interval wasFigure 11.1 Index of Rainfall in the Sahel,1941-90(departure from the norm, standard deviations)1.5-1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990Source: Peter J. Lamb and Randy A. Peppier, "Further Case Studies of TropicalAtlantic Surface, Atmospheric, and Oceanic Patterns Associated withSub-Saharan Drought," Journal of Climate, Vol. 5, forthcoming.Note: Norm = 1941 -82 average.only four years. Part of the problem originates in theHimalayan watershed, where rapid populationgrowth, deforestation, and unsustainable farming onsteep slopes have greatly reduced the capacity of theland to absorb water. The destruction of coastal mangroveforests (which break the impact of ocean waves)has also increased the coastal population's vulnerabilityto storm surges (11).Freshwater has many critical linkages with other aspectsof the environment. For example, forests play animportant role in absorbing precipitation. Dependingon the species and locality, trees in temperate NorthAmerican forests may intercept 40 percent or more ofannual precipitation, delaying runoff and greatly reducingthe flow of pollutants to streams, rivers, andlakes (12). In the past two years, the importance of forestsfor controlling runoff has been illustrated in areaswhere acid rain or other factors have damaged trees.In the Black Forest in Germany, which has experiencedsevere tree damage, rainfall has remained fairlyconstant but runoff has increased considerably. Studiesof a river basin in southwestern Australia havefound a similar link between deforestation and surfacewater runoff (13).Global warming is likely to lead to increased evaporationfrom the sea and hence to increased precipitationand river runoff. Global circulation modelsgenerally predict that precipitation will gradually increase4-12 percent if carbon dioxide levels in the atmospheredouble, with potentially greater increases inthe higher latitudes (14).Water UseHuman use of water has increased more than 35-foldover the past three centuries. In recent decades, waterwithdrawals have been increasing about 4-8 percentper year, with most of that increase occurring in the developingworld. Water use is stabilizing in the industri-World Resources 1992-93160

Freshwater 11alized countries, where the rate of increase of withdrawalsis expected to decline to 2-3 percent annuallyin the 1990s (15). Annual average per capita water usevaries widely: 1,692 cubic meters in North and CentralAmerica, 726 in Europe, 526 in Asia, 476 in SouthAmerica, and 244 in Africa. (See Chapter 22, "Freshwater,"Table 22.1.)Globally, 3,240 cubic kilometers of freshwater arewithdrawn and used annually. Of this total, 69 percentis used for agriculture, 23 percent for industry, and 8percent for domestic uses. (See Table 22.1.) As Figure11.2 shows, water use varies considerably around theworld. In Africa, Asia, and South America, agricultureis the primary use; for example, Asia uses 86 percentof its water for agriculture, mainly for irrigation.About 25 percent of agricultural water is returned tostreams as wastewater (16).Industrial and domestic withdrawals are expected toincrease more rapidly than agricultural withdrawals inthe coming years, but agricultural withdrawals willnevertheless increase in absolute terms. By the year2000, total irrigated area is expected to increase byabout 19 percent, including increases of perhaps 30percent in Africa and South America. To accommodatethat increase, water withdrawals for irrigation are projectedto increase by about 17 percent (17).Global withdrawals for industrial purposes are currentlyestimated at about 745 cubic kilometers annually,or about one fourth of total withdrawals. Industrialuses account for a substantial share of water withdrawalsin Europe (54 percent of total withdrawals)and North America (42 percent of total withdrawals).About 640 cubic kilometers—86 percent—is dischargedback into rivers and coastal waters as wastewater.By the end of the 1990s, industrial withdrawalsare expected to increase to roughly 1,200 cubic kilometers,with an accompanying global increase in industrialwastewater to nearly 1,000 cubic kilometers (18).(See Table 22.1.)A relatively small amount of freshwater—roughly 8percent of the global total—is withdrawn for domesticand municipal requirements. In regions experiencingrapid population growth, such as Asia, domestic use isexpected to increase sharply by the end of the 1990s.About 60 percent of water used for domestic purposesis returned to rivers as wastewater (19).Figure 11.2 Sectoral Water Withdrawalby RegionA. World, North and Central America, Europe(percent of total withdrawals)IWorldB. Africa, Asia, South America(percent of total withdrawals)Freshwater QualityPollution in freshwater is of three major types:• Excess nutrients from sewage and soil erosion, whichcause algae blooms that eventually deplete the oxygencontent of the water;• Pathogens from sewage that spread disease; and• Heavy metals and synthetic organic compounds fromindustry, mining, and agriculture, which bioaccumulatein aquatic organisms.These types of pollution, their sources, and methodsof control are discussed further in "Focus On RiverBasin Pollution," below.In general, river water quality, as measured by biologicaloxygen demand, has improved in industrial-80-60-40-20-80-60-40-20-AfricaDomestic I 1 Industry- .North & CentralAmericaDomestic i 1 IndustryAsiaSource: Chapter 22, "Freshwater," Table 22.1.AgricultureAgricultureEuropeHrSouth Americaized countries over the past 20 years because of increasedsewage treatment. Switzerland, Denmark, theNetherlands, Sweden, and the Federal Republic of Germanyhave achieved nearly complete sewage treatmentcoverage; Japan has made considerable progressbut still lags behind most other industrial countries (20).Some progress has also occurred in reducing the concentrationsof heavy metals in industrialized countries.For example, lead concentrations near the mouths ofrivers in Canada, Japan, Belgium, the Federal Republicof Germany, and the United Kingdom generally decreasedover the 1970-85 period (21). Concentrations ofmetals in the Rhine River have also declined slightlyafter decades of increases (22). Trends in metals besideslead and in toxic substances are less encouraging.In developing countries, water quality trends remaindifficult to ascertain because of deficiencies in the assessmentof pollution sources and in the monitoring ofgroundwater and surface waters. Water quality is gen-World Resources 1992-93161

11 FreshwaterTable 11.1 Sources and Impacts of Selected PollutantsPollutant Source Impact on Aquatic Organisms Impact on Human Health and WelfareSedimentAgricultural fields, pastures, and livestockfeed lots; logged hillsides; degradedstreambanks; road construction.Reduced plant growth and diversity; reducedprey for predators; clogging of gills andfilters; reduced survival of eggs andyoung; smothering of habitats.Increased water treatment costs; transportof toxics and nutrients; reduced availability offish, shellfish, and associated species; shortenedlifespan of lakes, streams, and artificialreservoirs and harbors.NutrientsAgricultural fields, pastures, and livestockfeed lots; landscaped urban areas; rawand treated sewage discharges;industrial discharges.Algal blooms resulting in depressedoxygen levels and reduced diversity andgrowth of large plants; release of toxinsfrom sediments; reduced diversity in vertebrateand invertebrate communities; fish kills.Increased water treatment costs; risk of reducedoxygen-carrying capacity in infant blood; possiblegeneration of carcinogenicnitrosamines; reducedavailability of fish, shellfish, and associatedspecies; impairment of recreational uses.Organic materialsAgricultural fields and pastures;landscaped urban areas; combinedsewers; logged areas; chemical manufacturingand other industrial processes.Reduced dissolved oxygen in affectedwaters; fish kills; reduced abundance anddiversity of aquatic life.Increased costs of water treatment; reducedavailability offish, shellfish, and associatedspecies.DiseasecausingagentsRaw and partially treated sewage; animalwastes; dams that reduce water flow.Reduced survival and reproduction infish, shellfish, and associated species.Increased costs of water treatment; river blindness,elephantiasis, schistosomiasis, cholera,typhoid, dysentery; reduced availability andcontamination of fish, shellfish, and associatedspecies.Heavy metalsAtmospheric deposition; road runoff;industrial discharges; sludge and dischargesfrom sewage treatment plants; creationof reservoirs; acidic mine effluents.Declines in fish populations due to failedreproduction; lethal effects on invertebratesleading to reduced prey for fish.Increased costs of water treatment;lead poisoning, itai-itai, and minamata diseases;kidney dysfunction; reduced availability andhealthfulness offish, shellfish, andassociated species.Toxic chemicalsUrban and agricultural runoff; municipaland industrial discharges; leachate fromlandfills.Reduced growth and survivability of fisheggs and young; fish diseases.Increased costs of water treatment; increasedrisk of rectal, bladder, and colon cancer; reducedavailability and healthfulness of fish, shellfish,and associated species.AcidsAtmospheric deposition; mineeffluents; degradingplant materials.Elimination of sensitive aquaticorganisms; release of trace metals fromsoils, rocks, and metal surfaces such aswater pipes.Reduced availability of fish, shellfish, andassociated species.ChloridesRoads treated for removal of ice orsnow; irrigation runoff; brine producedin oil extraction; mining.At high levels, toxic to freshwater life.Reduced availability of drinking water supplies;reduced availability of fish, shellfish, andassociated species.ElevatedtemperaturesUrban landscapes; unshadedstreams; impounded waters; reduceddischarges from dams; discharges frompower plants and industrial facilities.Elimination of cold-water species of fishand shellfish; reduced dissolved oxygendue to increased plant growth;increased vulnerability of some fishes totoxic wastes, parasites, and diseases.Reduced availability of fish, shellfish,and associated species.Sources:1. Thomas R. Schueler, Controlling Urban Runoff: A Practical Manual for Planning and Designing Urban BMPs (Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments,Washington, D.C., 1987), pp. 1.5-1.9.2. G. Tyler Miller, Jr., Environmental Science: Sustaining the Earth (Wadsworth Publishing Company, Belmont, California, 1991), p. 248.3. Margarets. Petersen, Water Resource Planning and Development (Prentice-Hall Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1984), p. 140.4. Mark K. Mitchell and William B. Stapp, Field Manual for Water Quality Monitoring: An Environmental Education Program for Schools, 4th ed. (Thomson-Shore Inc.,Dexter, Michigan, 1990), pp. 51 and 54.5. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Report to Congress: Water Quality of the Nation's Lakes (EPA, Washington, D.C., 1989), pp. 9 and 11.6. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Water Pollution by Fertilizers and Pesticides (OECD, Paris, 1986), pp. 50-52.7. D.R. Nimmo, D.L Coppage, Q.H. Pickering, era/., "Assessing the Toxicity of Pesticides to Aquatic Organisms," in Silent Spring Revisited, Gino J. Marco, Robert M.Hollingworth, and William Durham, eds. (American Chemical Society, Washington, D.C., 1987), pp. 58-62.8. R.C. Muirhead-Thomson, "Effects of Pesticides on the Feeding Habits of Fish," Outlook on Agriculture, Vol. 17, No. 2 (1988), p. 71.9. Michel Meybeck, Deborah V. Chapman, and Richard Helmer, eds., Global Environment Monitoring System: Global Freshwater Quality, A First Assessment (BasilBlackwell Ltd., Oxford, U.K., 1989), pp. 107,159,160,163.erally thought to be deteriorating, especially aroundurban areas. Few cities have sewage treatment facilities,and municipal water supplies are often neithertreated nor disinfected, greatly increasing the risk of diarrheaand other gastrointestinal illnesses that are factorsin infant mortality. Industrial discharges areusually poorly controlled (23). (See Table 11.1.)A 1991 regional review of global water quality bythe World Health Organization and United NationsEnvironment Programme listed several areas of specialconcern, including the following:• Fecal discharge, from humans and animals, whichtransports a variety of bacteria and viruses and threatenshuman health.162World Resources 1992-93

Freshwater 11• High salinity, which can occur naturally or as part ofpoor irrigation practices.• Nitrate pollution, primarily from fertilizers and animalmanures, a serious problem in North America and Europethat has begun to affect developing countries suchas Brazil and India (24).Key IssuesWATER SHORTAGESAcute water shortages in many parts of the world requiresolutions that will be costly, technically difficult,and—in many regions—politically sensitive. Waterscarcity contributes to the impoverishment of manycountries in East and West Africa, threatening theirability to increase food production fast enough to keeppace with population growth. Many of these countriesshare the combination of a short growing season,which makes crops vulnerable to intermittentdroughts, and a lack of water in rivers and aquifers asa result of limited freshwater recharge (25).One of the most serious shortages is in the NorthChina Plain, a semiarid region with a population ofabout 200 million people, including major cities suchas Beijing and Tianjin. Consumption by industry, agriculture,and the increasing population is outstrippingsupplies. If present trends continue, the region willhave 6 percent less water than needed by the end ofthe century; Beijing alone will have a daily shortfall of550,000 cubic meters, or about two thirds of its currentsupply. Groundwater levels are falling drastically—asmuch as 80 meters in some areas—and as a result, landin Beijing has sunk as much as 0.5 meters because ofthe resulting subsidence.Some experts think Beijing and other communitiesin the region should initiate conservation measures, reducedemand (by raising water prices), increase supplies(by recycling and reducing leakage), and reallocatewater from agriculture to more efficient uses. TheChinese government is considering a massive, 1,190-kilometerdiversion of water from the Yangtze Rivernear Shanghai (26).Water shortages have also reached serious proportionsin the southwestern United States, especially indrought-stricken California. Beginning in 1987 andcontinuing into 1991, the drought in some parts of thestate has been the worst in the last century (27). The ecologicaleffects have been significant. Catches of cohoand chinook salmon, striped bass, and herring have declineddramatically. Waterfowl populations havedropped for many reasons, but the drought hasworsened their decline by drying up wetland areas.Tree mortality has been extremely high (30-80 percentare dead or dying) in some forest areas of the SierraNevada, and many threatened or endangered plantand animal species have been adversely affected (28).The drought also reduced California's hydroelectriccapacity. As a result, more fossil fuels were purchasedand burned by California utilities, increasing utilityemissions of carbon dioxide by more than 25 percent.Water quality was also affected in some regions due tolow freshwater flows and increased salinity intrusion(29). To cope with the shortage, the city of Santa Barbaraon the central coast is planning to build a desalinationplant. Some environmentalists have criticizedthis strategy, arguing that conservation is a better wayto deal with water shortages (30). Desalination, nevertheless,is growing rapidly around the world. (See Box11.1.)The Middle East: Politics and WaterWater shortages could reach crisis proportions in theMiddle East and North Africa in this decade. Jordan,Israel, Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, and the countries of theArabian Peninsula are already reaching a point wherenearly all available supplies are being used (31). Thewater issue is particularly difficult in this region becauseso many countries share common water sources.For example, Egypt relies on the Nile for 86 percent ofdomestic consumption, yet most of the river's watersoriginate in eight upstream countries (32).Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, and Jordan are facinga combined water deficit of at least 300 millioncubic meters per year. Water has many political implicationsin the region: for example, the Yarkon/Taninimaquifer, which provides 25-40 percent of Israel'swater, lies beneath both pre-1967 Israel and the WestBank and is thus a strategic concern for Israel in negotiationsover the future of the West Bank (33). Efforts todevelop the Jordan and Yarmuk River basins havebeen stopped by Arab-Israeli or Syrian-Jordanian tensions.Turkey, Iraq, and Syria have frequently been atodds over the management of the Tigris and Euphratesriver basins (34).Egypt has started a consultative group of the Nilecountries—the Undugu Group—and has proposed along-range scheme for the development of the Nile.Turkish President Turqut Ozal was to have hosted aMiddle East Water Summit in Istanbul in November1991, although the meeting was later cancelled becauseof Israeli-Arab tensions (35).WATER AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURALDEVELOPMENTIn many regions, a critical challenge will be to provideenough water for sustainable agriculture. Improvedwater resources management can help considerably.For example, a variety of water harvesting and waterspreading techniques, such as stonelines to collectwater for dryland crops, have potential. In the semiaridand subhumid regions of Africa, water harvestingcould increase agricultural production on 10 millionhectares in the short term and 50 million hectares inthe long term.In rainfed areas, water conservation strategies suchas fallow management and runoff control have potential.Other farm practices—such as the use of droughttolerantvarieties, crop rotation, and carefully timedplanting dates—can be important complements towater resource management (36).World Resources 1992-93163

11 FreshwaterBox 11.1 Desalination: An Increasingly Popular OptionAreas with water shortages, especially inhigh-income countries, are turning increasinglyto desalination plants to supplementwater resources. In the 1980s, the numberof plants producing more than 100 cubicmeters per day increased dramatically,from 3,527 plants in December 1986 to7,536 plants operating in 120 countries inDecember 1989 0) (2). At that time, globalcapacity (either installed or contracted)was estimated at nearly 13.3 million cubicmeters per day, roughly a 13-fold increasesince 1970 (3).Desalination plants are now common inareas that can afford the relatively highcost such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, andsouth Florida. Measured by percentage oftotal global capacity, Saudi Arabia is theworld leader with 27 percent; followed bythe United States, 12 percent; Kuwait, 11percent; and the United Arab Emirates, 10percent (4).Large plants, such as the 1 million cubicmeter per day Jubail plant in Saudi Arabia,usually use the distillation process, inwhich salt water is heated and the resultingsteam condenses into freshwater. Themain distillation process—the multistageflash process—has declined from 67 percentof total capacity in 1984 to about 56percent in 1989, but it still plays a significantrole in very large plants and in dualpurposeplants coupled with powergeneration. Smaller plants typically use reverseosmosis, which uses high pressure toforce saltwater through a screen that filtersout both suspended and dissolved solids.Reverse osmosis climbed to about 31 percentof total global capacity by 1989, upfrom 20 percent in 1984 (5).Desalination is still three to four timesmore expensive than conventional sourcesof freshwater, costing 40-60 cents per 1,000liters of brackish water and $1.05 to $1.60per 1,000 liters of sea water. As the technologyimproves, however, and the cost ofconventional freshwater increases, desalinationplants are likely to become morepopular and the costs are likely to continueto decline slightly. There is greatly increasedinterest, for example, in buildingdistillation plants alongside electric utilitiesand using the waste heat from powergeneration to drive the desalination process(6) (7).About 65 percent of all plants are treatingsea water and 27 percent are treatingbrackish water. Desalination plants are increasinglybeing used for applications otherthan removing salt, such as the treatmentof effluent waters, of river water to obtainwater for boilers, of groundwater that hasbeen polluted by nitrates and pesticides,and of municipal water to make ultrapurewater for the electronics industry (8).References and Notes1. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment(OTA), Using Desalination Technologiesfor Water Treatment (U.S. Government PrintingOffice, Washington, D.C., 1988), p. 7.2. Pat Burke, President, International DesalinationAssociation, Topsfield, Massachusetts,1991 (personal communication).3. Klaus Wangnick, 1990 IDA Worldwide DesaltingPlants Inventory Report No. 11, preparedfor the International DesalinationAssociation (Wangnick Consulting,Gnarrenburg, Germany, 1990), pp. 17,21.4. Ibid., p. 38.5. Ibid., p. 19.6. Richard W. Stevenson, "Dry CaliforniaTurns to the Pacific," New York Times(March 5,1991), p. Dl.7. Op. at. 1, pp. 25-26.8. Op. cit. 3, p. 17.WATER AND SANITATION: DECADE OF EFFORTThe conclusion of the 1981-90 International DrinkingWater Supply and Sanitation Decade provides an opportunityfor evaluating the world's progress in waterand sanitation and for devising new strategies for the1990s. This U.N. effort, an outgrowth of the United NationsWater Conference held in Mar del Plata, Argentinain 1977, called on countries to set realistic goals forthe decade and to develop national water and sanitationplans. In addition, it called upon aid agencies toprovide assistance to implement the plans.Unfortunately, the goals of the decade were blockedby a sudden slowdown of economic growth in the developingcountries. During the 1980s, many countrieswent through a difficult financial readjustment andwere burdened with rising costs of external financing:simply keeping up with rapid population growth andurbanization was difficult (37).Measuring progress in water and sanitation hasbeen difficult because of a lack of adequate information.A U.N. document concluded that, with the exceptionof West Asia, most regions had merely kept pacewith or even fallen behind population growth. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the number of peopleserved roughly doubled, but the number of urbandwellers without safe water increased by 29 percent(38). By the year 2000, the number of urban dwellerslacking adequate water supplies may increase by 83percent, and the number lacking adequate sanitationservices by nearly as much. Making substantial progressin water and sanitation by the end of the decadewould require roughly a tripling of investment overthe average achieved during the 1980s (39).Work is underway to develop new strategies forwater and sanitation in the 1990s. A key event is the InternationalConference on Water and the Environment,to be held in Dublin in January 1992, which isscheduled to focus on six major issues:• Knowledge of the resource and demands upon it;• Water for sustainable agricultural production;• Water for sustainable urban development;• Environmentally sound water management;• Capacity building for water resources management; and• Integrated water resources management.The strategies and action plans developed at thisconference will be presented to the United NationsConference on Environment and Development in Brazilin June 1992 (40).As the decade begins, economic issues—the gap betweenincreasing costs and users' ability to pay, the inefficientpricing of services, the promotion of incentivesto conserve water—seem to predominate, alongwith the problem of institutional weaknesses in waterresources management and planning. But as urbanareas continue to grow, the problems of water availabilityare likely to be increasingly important, and optionssuch as the reuse of wastewater and desalinationmay become increasingly attractive.FOCUS ON RIVER BASIN POLLUTIONThe land area drained by a river and its tributaries—known as a river basin—is the basic unit for under-World Resources 1992-93164

Freshwater 11standing the sources and effects of freshwater pollutionas well as the ecological relationships between terrestrialand aquatic systems. Figure 11.3 shows theworld's major river basins.As water circulates from the atmosphere throughthe watershed and oceans and back into the atmosphere—aprocess known as the hydrological cycle—itis vulnerable to pollution from many sources. First, airbornedust, nutrients, metals, and other chemicals mayfall as dry deposition or adhere to and fall with raindropsand snowflakes on both land and water. Second,as it flows over or filters through the soil, precipitationmay dissolve nutrients and chemical residues or pickup nutrients, agricultural and industrial chemical residues,metals, and other pollutants. Eventually, some ofthe water may enter tributary streams and rivers, intowhich a third source of pollution—sewage and industrialwastewater—is discharged directly. At theirmouths, rivers disgorge their loads of sediment andpollutants into coastal estuaries, where they may remainfor many years. (See Chapter 12, "Oceans andCoasts," Focus On Coastal Pollution.)In addition to producing chemical pollution, humanactivities affect aquatic ecosystems in a variety ofways. When cities are built, grasslands, forests, andwetlands are converted to impermeable surfaces suchas roads, parking lots, and roofs, greatly alteringstreamflow patterns. In cities, on farms, and in loggingoperations, removal of streamside vegetation can promotestreambank erosion and subsequent smotheringof freshwater animals and plants by sediments. Damsfor power or irrigation impede fish migration and alterwater chemistry and temperature in downstreamareas.Throughout a river system, pollution of groundwater,surface waters, and ultimately coastal waters candirectly and indirectly damage human health and economicactivities, as well as aquatic plant and animalcommunities. The health impact is particularly severein developing countries, where waterborne infectiousdiseases affect more people than any other health problem(41). Once polluted, freshwater, especially groundwater,is expensive to cleanse for human use.Waterways degraded by development or pollutionsuffer decreased diversity and reduced abundance offish and the invertebrates upon which fish and otheranimals feed (42) (43). Furthermore, in a process knownas bioaccumulation, metals and inorganic chemicalsmay accumulate in aquatic organisms to levels wellabove those in the water itself, as the contaminants arepassed up the food chain from prey to predator, includinghumans who consume fish. Finally, erosion resultingin sedimentation of waterways can impedenavigation and require expensive dredging.Pollution by upstream users can significantly reducethe quality of water available to downstream users(and ecosystems) at little or no cost to polluters. Thisgreatly complicates efforts to maintain or restore waterquality. The resulting conflicts can have local, national,and international ramifications. Within countries,agencies responsible for water quality have little or nocontrol over activities—such as siting of hazardousFigure 11.3 The World's Major River BasinsSource: Compiled by the World Resources Institute.World Resources 1992-93165

11 Freshwaterwaste dumps, agricultural practices, or urban development—thatinfluence the quality or quantity of availablewater (44) (45).Most sources of pollution have been identified andtechnologies or processes have been devised to reduceeach pollutant. Where watershed pollution continues,it is usually because of a lack of political will, intergovernmentalcoordination, or inadequate funding. Manygovernments are recognizing that the protection offreshwater and coastal water quality depends on integratedwater resource management, which emphasizesriver basin and coastal zone planning and involvesagencies responsible for resource protectionand for economic development (46) (47).THE DYNAMICS OF RIVER BASINSRiver basins are dominant features of the Earth's surface(48). They range in size from the tiny river basinsalong the mountainous Na Pali coast on Kauai in theHawaiian islands to huge basins such as the AmazonRiver basin, which covers more than 7 million squarekilometers, an area twice the size of India. Precipitationin a river basin can depend on continental-scaleweather systems. For example, weather systems movingacross the industrialized midwestern United Statespick up pollutants that fall as acid precipitation ineastern Canada.Movement of Groundwater and Surface WaterOnce precipitation falls on the ground, whether as rainor snow, it either evaporates, seeps into the soil andflows to aquifers, or forms surface rills, streams, andeventually rivers. The slopes of a river basin concentratesurface runoff to form a river system leading tolakes or the sea (49) (50).Precipitation that seeps into the ground eventuallyreaches the zone of saturation where it fills all availablepores in soil or porous rock, forming great bodiesof groundwater (51). Moving toward areas of lowerpressure and elevation, groundwater may eventuallydischarge into wetlands, springs, lakes, geysers, orcoastal waters. Groundwater provides the base flow ofmany rivers (52).A river can be divided into three parts (53). The headwatersare characterized by small, steep streams thatare fed by rain, snow, glaciers, or springs. Their highvelocitystreamflow can carry away large amounts ofsediment if the soil of surrounding slopes is not protectedby vegetation. Eroded sediments (a problem notrestricted to headwaters) represent the major source ofpollutants in surface waters (54).The middle sections of a river are generally less steep.Flowing through comparatively flat land, a river isoften surrounded by a floodplain, which is seasonallyinundated by runoff from heavy rains or rapid snowmelt.Floodplains can support productive fisheries andagriculture, which depend on nutrient-rich, riverbornesediment. However, periodic floods can cause massivedestruction and loss of human life. Human activitiesalso add pollutants—nutrients, pesticides, toxic metals,and toxic organic compounds—to rivers.Lakes and wetlands are found mainly along the middleand lower reaches of rivers. The water stored inwetlands can recharge groundwater, maintain streamflowsduring dry periods, and reduce flooding. Wetlands,lakes, and artificial reservoirs often act as sinksfor contaminants, which settle with suspended sediments(55). As a river approaches the sea, its freshwatermixes with saltwater. Because of slower currents andchanged water chemistry, organic and inorganic mattercollected from the runoff of the river basin settles tothe bottom. Chapter 12, "Oceans and Coasts," FocusOn Coastal Pollution, details the impact of such depositson estuaries and other coastal waters.On different continents, humans withdraw 1 to 16percent of river flows for irrigation, industry, and domesticand municipal use. (See Chapter 22, "Freshwater,"Table 22.1.) These withdrawals can have dramaticimpacts in particular river systems. Extreme examplesof rivers drained dry by withdrawal for irrigation includethe Colorado in the United States and the AmuDarya and Syr Darya, which feed the Aral Sea in theSoviet Union (56) (57). Increasing demands are alsobeing made upon groundwater; in the United States,about one half of the drinking water and 40 percent ofthe irrigation water is drawn from groundwater (58).Overpumping of groundwater by large coastal cities,such as Dakar, Senegal; Jakarta, Indonesia; and Lima,Peru; has led to contamination of underground freshwaterby intruding coastal saltwater (59). (See Conditionsand Trends, Water Use, above.).Differences in River BasinsRiver basins differ greatly in size, climate, topography,geology, vegetation, and land use. Large river basinsmay contain different mixes of these characteristics, allof which influence the volume and quality of groundwaterand surface waters moving through a riverbasin into the ground, lakes, and coastal waters (60).In many river basins with extensive vegetativecover, precipitation infiltrates soils and groundwaters,which contribute to steady river flows. Although vegetationcauses water loss to the atmosphere throughevapotranspiration, it retards the flow of water overland and increases recharge of shallow aquifers (61).In desert regions with little vegetation, heavy rainfallleads to higher surface runoff rates and flooding.When a river basin is stripped of its natural moistureholdingvegetation by agriculture, deforestation, or urbanization,runoff velocity and erosion increase.Geological conditions—such as soil type—also influencethe dynamics of a river basin. For example, permeablesoils absorb precipitation more readily,thereby reducing overland flow and runoff volumeand velocity.River basins also differ in the features that determinewater flow pattern and chemical composition (62). Forinstance, floodplains and wetlands store floodwatersand release them slowly, reducing surges in flow followingheavy rainfall. According to one study, riverbasins without wetlands discharge water at five timesthe rate of basins with 40 percent wetland cover (63).166World Resources 1992-93

Freshwater 11By capturing sediments in stormwater runoff, wetlandsand riparian (riverbank) forests also filter nutrients(primarily nitrogen and phosphorus) and otherpotential pollutants from river water (64). Such bufferzones help maintain river water quality, particularlybecause most pollutants enter river waters duringrapid snow melt or heavy rainfall (65).SOURCES OF MAJOR POLLUTANTSWith the exception of a few communities in desert andtundra areas, most humans live in river basins (66).Human settlements, industrial development, agriculture,and deforestation have significantly altered thephysical and ecological features of many river basins.All of these human activities contribute additional nutrients,metals, and synthetic chemicals to the hydrologiccycle. Table 11.1 describes the major river basinpollutants, their sources, and their effects on aquaticorganisms and humans.Some water pollution comes from diffuse or "nonpoint"sources. For instance, airborne pollutants (fromautomobiles, factories, and power plants) and waterbornepollutants (from croplands, feed lots, logged forests,and urban areas) can contribute significantly toriver basin pollution (67). A 1980 study showed that airbornepollutants in the Potomac River basin accountfor 70-95 percent of the nitrogen and 20-35 percent ofthe phosphorus in urban runoff (68). A 1989 studyshowed that 76 percent of nitrogen, phosphorus, andsediment in U.S. lakes surveyed came from nonpointsources (69).Pollutants from diffuse sources may behave differentlythan those from specific "point" sources, such assewage treatment facilities and industrial dischargepipes. As contaminants move through aquifers, theyform underground plumes that may move slowly towardareas of lower pressure (such as wells) (70).Plumes from point sources tend to be long and narrowbut highly contaminated, while plumes from nonpointsources are large, diffuse, and less contaminated (71).Human SettlementsUrbanization greatly influences water quantity andquality because of runoff and sewage. Impermeablesurfaces such as roofs and highways replace permeablesoils and vegetation, increasing the volume, velocity,and temperature of urban runoff, reducing thebase flow of rivers during dry periods, raising the temperatureof urban streams, and collecting pollutantsthat range from litter and pet droppings to toxics fromatmospheric deposition (72) (73) (74).Inadequately treated sewage from human settlementsintroduces large quantities of nutrients, pathogens,heavy metals, and synthetic organic chemicalsinto surface waters. In industrial countries, much ofthe sewage generated in urban areas is collected bysewer systems and treated to varying degrees beforebeing discharged into rivers, lakes, or coastal waters.(See Table 11.2.). Primary (physical) and secondary (biological)treatment of sewage may remove 35 and 85percent of pollutants in sewage, respectively (75), butTable 11.2 Population Served by WastewaterTreatment, OECD Countries(percent)CountryOECD North AmericaCanadaUnited SlatesOECD EuropeAustriaBelgiumDenmarkFinlandFrance(West) GermanyGreeceIrelandItalyLuxembourgNetherlandsNorwayPortugalSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomOECD PacificAustraliaJapanNew ZealandTotal197042X423317454271962XX1428X213X6335XXXX16523419756549673927671503175XX22X45276148155XXXX235646198069567046382380654382111308172349188270X82XX30595119857257745065X91724987XXX8385429299483X83XX368857Late1980s7366X5772X98755290XX6091924311489590184Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),OECD Environmental Data Compendium 1991, draft (OECD, Paris, 1991),Table 3.2A, p. 51.Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.X = not available.they remove only 30 percent of the phosphorus, 50 percentof the nitrogen, and 70 percent of the most toxiccompounds. Advanced sewage treatment plants thatcan further reduce specific pollutant levels cost twiceas much to build and four times as much to operate assecondary treatment plants (76). Without regular maintenanceand proper operation, primary, secondary,and advanced sewage treatment plants will operatewell below their intended standards.Conventional treatment of sewage does not eliminatethe problem of pathogens in sewage. To eliminatehuman pathogens, the water discharged from sewagetreatment plants is sometimes treated with chlorine,which reacts with organic chemicals to form carcinogenicchlorinated hydrocarbons. The sludge producedby sewage treatment can also pollute water, unless it isfurther treated and incinerated or properly applied toland (77). Finally, where cities combine their sewer systemswith storm drainage systems, storm water mayoverwhelm storm drainage systems and flow intosewer systems, mixing with sewage and discharginginto the receiving river, lake, or coastal water body.Some cities have built storm water retaining basins toprevent such discharges (78).The situation is much worse in the developingworld, where more than 95 percent of urban sewage isdischarged into surface waters without treatment (79).Many cities in developing countries lack even sewersystems, let alone sewage treatment facilities. For exampleBangkok, Thailand—the capital of one of themost economically advanced developing countries—XX39X60World Resources 1992-93167

11 FreshwaterTable 11.3 Percent of Sewage Treatedin Selected Areas{a}AreaEuropeMediterranean Sea{b}Caribbean BasinSoutheast PacificSouth AsiaSouth PacificWest and Central AfricaPercent7230less than 10almost zeroalmost zeroalmost zeroalmost zeroSource1233435Sources:1. P.C. Wood, "Sewage Sludge Disposal Options," in The Role of the Oceansas A Waste Disposal Option, G. Kullenberg, ed. (D. Reidel PublishingCompany, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 1986), p. 111.2. The World Bank and the European Investment Bank, The EnvironmentalProgram for the Mediterranean (The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1990),p. 17.3. Don Hinrichsen, Our Common Seas: Coasts in Crisis (EarthscanPublications Ltd., London, in association with the United NationsEnvironment Programme, Nairobi, 1990), pp. 28, 52, 67, and 86.4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Environmental Problemsof the South Asian Seas Region: An Overview (UNEP, Nairobi, 1987), p. 8.5. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), The Marine and CoastalEnvironment of the West and Central African Region and its State ofPollution (UNEP, Nairobi, 1984), p. 54.Notes:a. Includes any type of sewage treatment.b. Percent of sewage treated from 700 Mediterranean coastal towns and cities.was considering plans for a sewage system in late1990. The city relies on four rivers and a series of canalsto dispose of an estimated 10,000 metric tons ofraw sewage and municipal waste every day (80). Sanitationsystems without sewage treatment may actuallyincrease water pollution elsewhere if they merelytransfer sewage to rivers and lakes that others use as awater source (81). For many developing countries, bacteria,parasites, and viruses in water supplies remain amore serious threat to human health than toxic contaminants(82). Table 11.3 illustrates the amount ofwater treatment in certain world regions.Industry And MiningIndustry and mining are the principal sources ofheavy metals and synthetic organic chemicals in freshwater.Industrial sources of heavy metal pollution includedust from smelting and metal processing;discharge of heavy metal solutions used in plating, galvanizing,and pickling; use of metals and metal compoundsin paints, plastics, batteries, and tanning; andleaching from solid waste dumps (83) (84). A 1980 studyshowed that about 70 percent of anthropogenic heavymetals in the Federal Republic of Germany's RuhrRiver came from industrial sources (85).Heavy metals bioaccumulate at higher levels of thefood chain and so pose special risks for people whoconsume crops grown with, or fish caught in, contaminatedwaters. More than 600 reported deaths in Japanbetween 1953 and 1970 were attributed to heavy metalcontamination of air, drinking water, fish, and rice (86).Since the 1970s, however, improved wastewater treatmenthas reduced levels of heavy metals in most majorrivers in the industrialized countries (87).Most synthetic organic chemical pollution comesfrom industrial sources, including chemical and petrochemicalrefineries, pharmaceutical manufacturing,iron and steel plants, wood pulp and paper processing,and food processing. Like heavy metals, syntheticorganic compounds such as PCBs and certain pesticidesconcentrate at higher levels of the food chain.Some increase the risk of cancer and reproductive abnormalitiesin fish, aquatic mammals, and humans.Costs of freshwater pollution from synthetic organicsinclude reduced productivity of fisheries (88), restrictionson consumption of fish from contaminated areas,and contamination of drinking water (89).In general, industry accounts for a smaller share offreshwater pollution in developing than in developedcountries (90). Nevertheless, it poses a serious problemin developing countries because pollution control isoften lacking. Such pollution is especially severe in rapidlyindustrializing regions such as East Asia (91).Mining and petroleum extraction pollute freshwatereither through discharges of brine or through leachingfrom mine tailings into groundwater (92). Coal miningand petroleum drilling and refining discharge organiccompounds (93). Coal, phosphate, and metal mines pollutefreshwater with heavy metals, often at high environmentalcosts (94). For instance, heavy metalsleaching from mine wastes contaminated rice fields inthe Ichi River basin in Japan and are correlated with ahigh incidence of kidney failure. Heavy metal pollutionfrom mines in the Upper Silesia area of Polandwiped out fish in the Szola River (95).The brine discharged from oil wells (96) or salt andpotash mines can also increase the salinity of freshwaterbodies. Saline discharges from mines in Germanyhave made Rhine water unsuitable for greenhouse gardeningin the Netherlands (97). Finally, water withdrawalfor mine drainage can cause saltwater intrusioninto freshwater aquifers (98).In developing countries, mining can be a greatersource of pollution than manufacturing or processing.For instance, mining is a major source of pollution inSouth America, particularly in the Andes (99).AgricultureAgriculture is the leading nonpoint source for waterpollutants such as sediments, pesticides, and nutrients,principally nitrogen and phosphorus (100). Increasingdemand for food crops has resulted in increased conversionof forests and grasslands into croplands inmany countries. One result is greater soil erosion andsedimentation of streams. At the same time, farmers—especially in some developing countries—have increasedproduction by using larger amounts of fertilizersand pesticides, some of which run off intostreams or percolate into groundwater (101). Other agriculturalpractices, such as frequent plowing and excessiveirrigation, can aggravate pollution of freshwaterwith sediments, salts, and pesticides (102). (See Chapter7, "Food and Agriculture," Environmental Trends.)Diversions of water for irrigation can dramaticallyaffect water quality. For example, the Soviet Union'sdiversion of water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya(to increase cotton production) has so altered the AralSea—once the fourth largest freshwater lake in theworld—that even if flows into the sea were to double,168World Resources 1992-93

Freshwater 11the Aral would still shrink to one sixth of its 1960 area,while its salinity would increase to four times that ofthe oceans (103). All native fish species have disappeared,destroying the local fishing industry (104). (SeeWorld Resources 1990-91, Box 10.2, p. 171.)Transport of agricultural pesticides by surface runoffand leaching into groundwater depends not only onthe chemical character and solubility of a pesticide butalso on soil properties, agricultural practices, and climaticconditions, particularly precipitation (105). Leachingis greatest where precipitation is high and soilshave high permeability but low water-holding capacity.The chemical character of modern pesticidesmakes them more likely to contaminate groundwaterthan older pesticides, which leach more slowlythrough soils (106).Livestock FarmingOver the past two decades, livestock farming has intensified,especially in Africa, Asia, and Central andSouth America. (See World Resources 1990-91, Table18.3, pp. 282-283.) Grazing livestock remove vegetation,compact soil, and generate large quantities of manure,which affect the quality and quantity of surfacerunoff (107). Crop-livestock operations pose specialrisks for freshwater resources when farmers apply excessiveamounts of manure and other nutrients to cropland.The problem is especially acute in Europe. (SeeChapter 7, "Food and Agriculture," Problems with theConventional Model.)LoggingThe clearest consequence of imprudent logging practices,particularly along streams, is an increase in erosionand sediment loads, with resulting damage tohabitats for river organisms and to the water claritynecessary for aquatic plants (108). Debris from loggingoperations can also increase the input of organic materials,whose decomposition reduces oxygen in riverwaters. A recent United Nations report cites deforestationas a major cause of changes in runoff, increases insedimentation, and downstream nutrient enrichmentof rivers and lakes worldwide (109).Deforestation along streams also allows pollutantsto wash into rivers and exposes shallow nearshore watersto sunlight, raising water temperatures and fosteringoxygen depletion through decomposition ofaquatic plants (no). In West and Central Africa, forestclearing for grazing purposes has led to increasedstreambank erosion, sedimentation of streams, andloss of habitat for a wide variety of stream organisms.Increased sunlight combined with nutrient enrichmentin streams has promoted the growth of filamentousalgae favored by snails that host the vectors for schistosomiasis(ill).LOW-COST SOLUTIONSFreshwater polluted by metals and industrial or agriculturalchemicals requires expensive, technologicallyadvanced treatment. Preventing pollutants from enteringgroundwater or surface waters can reduce treatmentcosts and downstream damage. Some existing,small-scale measures can also salvage nutrients for usein raising food and creating habitat for wildlife.Treating Sewage in Wetlands and Fish PondsConventional sewage treatment is expensive. In theUnited States, the federal government has provided$57 billion since 1972—as much as 55-75 percent ofconstruction costs, depending on type—for sewagetreatment plants (112). The United Nations has estimatedthat construction costs for treatment plants andsubmarine outfalls for the 539 Mediterranean coastaltowns with populations greater than 10,000 wouldamount to more than $5 billion (113).As an alternative to conventional sewage treatment,Arcata, California, a small coastal town of 15,000, hastransformed a local garbage dump into 63 hectares ofwetlands that serve as a simple, low-cost waste treatmentplant. Sewage is collected in sewers, held inponds where solids settle out, then released intomarshes, where it is filtered and cleansed by naturalprocesses. Some of the treated water irrigates otherwetlands, the rest is pumped into the bay, whereoysterbeds thrive (114).This approach requires more land than conventionalsewage treatment plants. Its cost-effectiveness dependson whether the land would produce greater valuefrom another use, such as agriculture. One Swedishstudy concluded that the benefits of sewage treatmentare greater than the costs of lost agricultural productionon the same land (115).In other areas of the world, partially treated sewageis used to raise fish. For example, a small fraction ofthe sewage generated by the 7 million inhabitants ofLima, Peru, is directed into holding ponds, where solidssettle out and bacteria decompose many of thewastes. After 20-30 days, the water is clean enough toirrigate grain crops for cattle and to raise fish (116). A1985 study for the World Bank described similar aquacultureoperations relying on human excreta inBangladesh, China, the Federal Republic of Germany,Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Taiwan,Thailand, and Viet Nam (117).The largest single waste-fed aquaculture system inthe world is the Calcutta sewage system, where waterand sewage are fed into two lakes covering an estimated2,500 hectares. After an initial bloom of algae,fish—principally carp and tilapia—are introduced,and additional sewage is fed into the lakes once eachmonth. The system supplies about 7,000 metric tons offish annually to the Calcutta market, or 2.8 metric tonsper hectare per year (118).Several measures can virtually eliminate humanhealth concerns about fish from sewage-fed fishponds, such as detaining sewage in stabilization pondsfor at least 20 days before introducing it into fishponds, or transferring fish and shellfish to clean waterbefore harvesting (119).World Resources 1992-93169

11 FreshwaterReducing Industrial PollutionTighter government regulation has increased the costsof traditional "end-of-pipe" waste management, suchas cleaning up spills and dumps, landfilling, incineration,and off-site recycling (120). In the United States,private business spending on pollution control andwaste management increased from $28 billion in 1972to $47 billion in 1988 (in constant dollars) (121) (122). Asa result, industry has sought to reduce the amount ofwaste it generates in the first place.Waste reduction is a broad management approachusing a variety of technologies. It cuts the volume andtoxicity of wastes by recycling them or by redesigningprocesses and products (123). Companies that undertakewaste-reduction programs often save money byusing materials and energy more efficiently or by reducingthe costs of conventional pollution control andwaste disposal (124). Waste reduction has been mostsuccessful for process industries such as manufacturingand chemicals. The approach does not work aswell in mining or in such high-temperature operationsas burning fossil fuels, smelting, and cement production.The Institute for Local Self-Reliance in Washington,D.C., has documented a variety of waste reductionschemes that significantly reduce production of hazardousmaterials—and water pollution:• The Eaton Corporation of Humboldt, Tennessee, amanufacturer of truck axle housings, started closedlooprecycling of all metalworking fluids. The processhas cut annual regulated wastewater generation from1.8 million liters to zero, while saving the company$191,200 per year (125).• SKF Steel, Inc., of Hofors, Sweden, uses high-temperature"plasma gas" technology to recycle metal-bearingwastes from conventional steel smelters into usablemetals and a nonhazardous slag suitable for road construction.Its SkanDust plant in Landskrona, Sweden,processes 63,500 metric tons of smelting dust a year,eliminating wastes that otherwise could leach heavymetals into groundwater, rivers, and lakes (126).• As part of a company-wide waste-minimization program,the 3M Corporation plant in Cordova, Illinois, amanufacturer of organic chemicals including resinsand adhesives, adopted a new method for cleaning reactiontanks using high-pressure application of solventsand strippers. The new method reduced theamount of cleaning agents used by 900 metric tons peryear while reducing equipment downtime, energy consumption,and the cost of pollution control (127).According to INFORM, a New York-based environmentalresearch organization, waste reduction probablyoffers the greatest potential for environmentalbenefit of any waste management strategy. Preliminarydata show that 29 chemical manufacturers, implementing181 individual waste reduction actions,reduced targeted waste streams by an average of 71percent (measured by weight) at an average annualsavings of $351,000 per action (128). Despite such savings,factory managers often neglect waste reductionbecause environmental regulations encourage them tofocus on disposal or because other investments yieldmarginally higher returns (129) (130).Controlling Runoff PollutionThe diffuse nature of runoff requires an emphasis onland management throughout a river basin. A varietyof techniques can be used to reduce runoff pollution,including soil-conserving agricultural practices, forestryroad management, land surface roughening, sedimentationtraps, bank stabilization, and redesignedstreets (131).Urban RunoffIn the last two decades, several practices—includingsmall-scale detention ponds, infiltration basins, porouspavements, and vegetative strips—have been developedthat can reduce urban inputs of pollutants by upto 80 percent. Most of these practices enhance pollutantremoval by detaining storm waters or enablingthem to infiltrate the ground (132).The effectiveness of these techniques depends on themechanism used, the fraction of annual runoff that iseffectively treated, and the nature of the pollutantbeing removed (133). Settling ponds, for instance, canbe almost completely effective in removing pollutantsbound to sediments, but they generally remove lessthan half of soluble nutrients. Biological mechanisms,such as uptake by bacteria or plants can remove moresoluble nutrients. With proper planning, many techniquescan also provide important wildlife habitat,groundwater recharge, and recreational benefits (134).Some techniques, such as retaining ponds, may increasedownstream water temperatures, whereas others,such as infiltration systems, have little effect ontemperature (135).Agricultural RunoffIn the last 20 years, agricultural management practiceshave been developed to reduce runoff containing nutrientsand pesticides that pollute groundwater and surfacewaters. Such practices include conservation tillage,crop rotation, contour planting, planting covercrops in winter, filter systems, terrace systems, and fertilizermanagement. These practices control sedimenterosion and remove up to 60 percent of the nitrogenand phosphorous available for runoff from croplands.One study estimated that conservation tillage alonecan reduce phosphorus loads to surface waters by 30percent, although nitrogen is unaffected (136). In combination,these practices are even more effective. Theycan also reduce pesticide runoff, although their effecton migration of pesticides to groundwater is undetermined(137). (See Chapter 7, "Food and Agriculture,"Box 7.2.)Other new mechanisms for reducing agriculturalpollution include increasing taxes and fees on inputssuch as pesticides, fertilizers, and irrigation water; incentivesto leave highly erodible land uncultivated;and the removal of production subsidies. (See Chapter7, "Food and Agriculture," New Policy Options.)170World Resources 1992-93

Freshwater 11Runoff from Livestock FarmsPractices such as pond construction and permanentvegetation improvement can reduce nitrogen andphosphorus runoff from pasturelands by up to 60 percent(138). Limited use of such practices in the PotomacRiver basin in the United States has yielded runoff reductionsof 7 percent in nitrogen and phosphorus (139).Management of manure through proper storage andapplication can substantially reduce nutrient runoffand the need for commercial fertilizers. Treatment lagoonsand ponds can reduce the amount of nutrientsin animal wastes before they are applied to fields (140).In the Netherlands, the size and number of livestockfarms are being reduced, and regional centers arebeing established to store surplus manure during periodswhen spreading these nutrients on agriculturallands would lead to runoff or leaching (141). Dairyfarms near the Everglades in the United States are nowrequired to reduce the flow of nutrients from theirfeed lots by using wastewater to irrigate pastures (142).Logging RunoffProtecting forested areas along the headwaters of ariver is central to protecting the water quality of the entireriver (143). Locating roads across rather than upand down slopes, allowing drainage to flow throughculverts beneath roads, and locating activities awayfrom streams can significantly reduce runoff and sedimentationfrom logging operations. Leaving forestedbuffers along streams can filter out sediments and nutrientseroded from deforested areas and reducestreambank erosion (144).INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIONEffective water management requires a broad plan foran entire river basin (145). This is particularly challengingwhere a river basin is under the jurisdiction of severalnations. Worldwide, 214 river or lake basins,populated by 40 percent of the world's human populationand covering more than 50 percent of the Earth'sland area, are shared by two or more countries (146)(147). Competition for groundwater also contributes tointernational tensions, especially in the Middle East(148). (See Table 11.4.).International law regarding shared freshwater resourcesgives little guidance in international riverbasin management. For instance, current internationallaw limits the responsibility of upstream nations to ensuringthat their activities do not conflict with therights of downstream nations (149). As a result, mostdownstream countries do not pursue their rightsthrough international courts, but through diplomacy(150). The United Nations has attempted to provideguidance in this area. (See Box 11.2.)By 1971,286 international treaties concerning waterresources had been negotiated. More than two thirdsof them concerned river basins in Europe and NorthAmerica, and most sought coordinated surveys andplanning or regulation of navigation (151). Some of themore recent efforts involve control of land-basedTable 11.4 International Water DisputesRiverNileEuphrates, TigrisJordan, Yarmuk Litani,West Bank aquiferIndus, SutleiGanges-BrahmaputraSalweenMekongParanaLaucaRio Grande, ColoradoRhineMaas, ScheldeElbeSzamosCountries in DisputeEgypt, Ethiopia, SudanIraq, Syria, TurkeyIsrael, Jordan,Syria, LebanonIndia, PakistanBangladesh, IndiaMyanmar, ChinaCambodia, Laos,Thailand, Viet NamArgentina, BrazilBolivia, ChileMexico, United StatesFrance, Netherlands,Switzerland, GermanyBelgium, NetherlandsCzechoslovakia, GermanyHungary, RomaniaIssuesSiltation, flooding, waterflow/diversionReduced water flow,salinizationWaterflow/diversionIrrigationSiltation, flooding, waterflowSiltation, floodingWater flow, floodingDam, land inundationDam, salinizationSalinization, water flow,agrochemical pollutionIndustrial pollutionSalinization,industrial pollutionIndustrial pollutionIndustrial pollutionSource: Michael Renner, National Security: The Economic and EnvironmentalDimensions, WorldWatch Paper 89 (WorldWatch Institute, Washington, D.C.,1989), p. 32.sources of pollution. In February 1991, for instance, theEconomic Commission for Europe adopted a conventionaddressing the prevention, control, and reductionof transboundary pollution that could have an importanteffect on water resources (152). Countries sharingriver basins flowing into the North Sea are cooperatingto reduce contamination of marine waters by reducingcontamination of freshwater.International Management of the Rhine RiverBasinOne of the few examples of international efforts to reducepollutants in an international river basin is a seriesof treaties concerning the Rhine River, the basin ofwhich covers 225,000 square kilometers and includeseight countries (153). These treaties have had both encouragingsuccess and spectacular failure.At the insistence of the Netherlands, which was concernedabout increased salinity in the Rhine, France,the Federal Rep ablic of Germany, Luxembourg, theNetherlands, and Switzerland began discussing arrangementsfor reducing pollution in the 1950s, andformed the International Commission for the Protectionof the Rhine against Pollution (ICPRP) in 1963. Atechnical commission, charged with monitoring pollutants,the ICPRP at first achieved few concrete results.However, to stem increasing pollution from industrialand municipal sources, the parties to the ICPRP signedthe Convention for the Protection of the Rhine AgainstChemical Pollution in 1976 (154) (155). In December1986, they agreed to the Rhine Action Programme,World Resources 1992-93171

11 FreshwaterBox 11.2 The United Nations on Freshwater ResourcesIn 1972, the United Nations Conference on theHuman Environment suggested the followingprinciples in its Recommendation 51 of theStockholm Action Plan:• Nations agree that when major waterresource activities are contemplated thatmay have a significant environmental effecton another country, the other countryshould be notified well in advance of theactivity envisaged.B The basic objective of all water resourceuse and development activities from theenvironmental point of view is to ensurethe best use of water and to avoid its pollutionin each country.• The net benefits of hydrologic regions commonto more than one national jurisdictionare to be shared equitably by the nations affected(1).In January 1991, a report on freshwater bythe Preparatory Committee for United NationsConference on the Environment and Developmentcalled for action in seven areas (2):• Environmentally sound development offreshwater resources through incorporationof environmental quality concerns indevelopment plans, economic valuation ofwater resources, and preservation of ecologicallysensitive water resources;• Managing transboundary watercoursesand international lakes through establishmentof multilateral commissions, adjustmentof national laws to enhance intercountrycooperation, improved communicationcapabilities, and planning for entirewatersheds;• Control of water pollution through landuse policy, recycling and recovery, cleantechnology, substitution of hazardous substancesand techniques, and testing of appropriatetechniques for reduction andcontrol of urban wastewater and agriculturalrunoff;I Safeguarding water supplies through integratedmanagement of water resourcesand liquid and solid wastes, strengtheningof local institutions in managing water andsanitation programs, and use of appropriatetechnologies;• Wise use of living freshwater resourcesthrough conservation of aquatic biologicaldiversity, increased propagation and culture,and increased research on aquaculture;• Building capacity for monitoring, includingdevelopment of national water qualitymonitoring networks, standardized monitoringtechniques and measurements, andadaptation of monitoring techniques totropical conditions; and• Strengthening institutional and manpowercapacities through preparation andimplementation of necessary legislation,guidance on technical issues by internationalagencies, information exchange, developmentof national training plans, andspecial attention to specific socioculturaland linguistic groups and to the role ofwomen in this area.References and Notes1. United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), In Defense of the Earth (UNEP,New York, 1981), p. 47, quoted in AlexanderKiss, "The Protection of the RhineAgainst Pollution," Natural Resources Journal,Vol. 25, No. 3 (University of New MexicoSchool of Law, Albuquerque, NewMexico, July 1985), p. 615.2. Preparatory Committee for the United NationsConference on Environment and Development(PREPCOM), "Protection of theQuality and Supply of Freshwater Resources:Application of Integrated Approachesto the Development,Management and Use of Water Resources,"(PREPCOM, Geneva, 1991), pp. 17-21.which seeks to produce drinkable water from theRhine, reduce sediment pollution, and restore theRhine environment so that indigenous aquatic life returns.To this end, the parties agreed to a 50-percent reduction(from 1985 levels) in the discharge of 30 prioritypollutants into the river by 1995 (156). The Netherlands,the Federal Republic of Germany, France, andSwitzerland agreed to share abatement costs of $136million (157). And in the summer of 1991, the Germanchemical industry federation agreed to reduce the flowof toxic chemicals into the Rhine (158). These internationalefforts, combined with domestic pollution controls,have produced measurable benefits: since theearly 1970s, concentrations of heavy metals have fallenand biological treatment of organic waste has reducedoxygen depletion and fish kills (159) (160).These encouraging results must be measured againsta spectacular and nearly catastrophic failure. The Conventionfor the Protection of the Rhine Against ChemicalPollution includes provisions for an internationalwarning system that is triggered by sudden and sizableincreases in pollutants. The warning system failedin November 1986, when efforts to extinguish a fire ina chemical warehouse in Basel, Switzerland, releasedunknown quantities of a potpourri of chemicals includingorganophosphates, organic mercury compounds,and various agrochemicals. Swiss authorities mayhave violated the Conventions' warning provisions bynot informing the other parties about the release of pollutants.If winter ice had covered the river and concealedthe fish killed by the toxic chemicals, withdrawalsfrom the river for drinking water might wellhave continued—with catastrophic consequences. TheRhine conventions did not provide citizens downstreamfrom the accident with a clear basis for pursuingdamages against the chemical plant or Swissauthorities (161).So far, international agreements have failed to controlsome key pollutants; for example, concentrationsof nitrates, mostly of agricultural origin, continue torise; and groundwater in Germany is increasingly contaminatedwith nitrates and pesticides. Salmon, at thetop of the food chain and therefore a key indicator ofriver health, have disappeared completely from theRhine. And although chlorides were one of the pollutantsoriginally targeted for control by the ICPRP, onlyone country, France, has reduced discharges (162).Upstream DownstreamCooperation among states and nations is usually necessaryto manage watershed pollution, but upstream nationsor states have little incentive to curb their pollutionwhen they can simply pass the damage on to theirdownstream neighbors. The case studies in Chapter12, "Oceans and Coasts," suggest that regional agreementshave the best chance of success when there is amediating body, a history of cooperation, a scientificbasis for action—and when all parties benefit fromcleaner water. When upstream polluters can see nobenefit from the expense of curbing their pollution, negotiationsare especially difficult.Even within a nation, where a central governmentcan provide economic incentives or impose regula-172World Resources 1992-93

Freshwater 11tions to protect downstream interests, there are few examplesof effective watershed management. Most industrializednations have applied dischargeregulations to industrial polluters and have helped financemunicipal sewage systems. Controls on runoffpollution are just emerging, however, and very littlehas been done to hold upstream polluters, such asfarming and logging interests, responsible for downstreamloss of water quality, fisheries, and habitat. Awatershed "polluter pays" management scheme mightinvolve policy tools such as regulations, penalties,compensation, or tax incentives to discourage upstreampollution.The Conditions and Trends section was written byWorld ResourcesSenior Editor Robert Livernash. Focus On Riveroasin Pollution waswritten by Michael Weber, a marine consultant in Washington, D.C.Daniel Seligman, World Resources research assistant, contributedto this chapter.References and Notes1. G. Tyler Miller, Jr., Environmental Science:Sustaining the Earth (Wadsworth, Belmont,California, 1991), p. 232.2. World Resources Institute in collaborationwith the United Nations Environment Programmeand the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, World Resources 1990-91(Oxford University Press, New York, 1990),p. 166.3. Op.cit.l.4. Op.cit.l.5. M.I. L'vovich, "Ecological Foundations ofGlobal Water Resources Conservation," inResources and World Development, D.J.McLaren and B.J. Skinner, eds. (John Wileyand Sons, Chichester and New York, 1987),p. 831.6. World Resources Institute and InternationalInstitute for Environment and Development,World Resources 1986 (Basic Books,New York, 1986), pp. 124-125.7. Op.cit.5.8. World Resources Institute and InternationalInstitute for Environment and Developmentin collaboration with the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, World Resources1988-89 (Basic Books, New York, 1988), p.128.9. Frits van der Leeden, Fred L. Troise, andDavid K. Todd, The Water Encyclopedia(Lewis Publishers Inc., Chelsea, Michigan,1990), p. 41.10. Op. cit. 1, p. 236.11. Op. cit. 1, pp. 237-238.12. Op. cit. 9, p. 66.13. United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), State of the Environment, draft freshwaterchapter (UNEP, Nairobi, forthcoming),February 1991, p. 14.14. Op. cit. 2, pp. 174-176.15. Op. cit. 2, p. 170.16. Op. cit. 2, p. 172.17. Op. cit. 2, p. 172.18. Op. cit. 2, p. 173.19. Op. cit. 2, p. 173.20. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), The State of theEnvironment (OECD, Paris, 1991), p. 60.21. Ibid.22. Op. cit. 2, p. 163.23. Op. cit. 2, pp. 162-163.24. World Health Organization (WHO) andUnited Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), WHO/UNEP Report on Water Quality(WHO and UNEP, Geneva and Nairobi,1991), pp. 61-63.25. Malin Falkenmark and Jan Lundqvist,"Water Scarcity—The Forgotten Dimension,"paper presented at the IUCN Workshopon Pollution and Natural Resources,Perth, Australia, November 1990, pp. 9-11.26. Ann Scott Tyson, "Water is Running Out inChina," Christian Science Monitor (June 5,1990), pp. 12-13.27. California Department of Water Resources,"Water Conditions in California," Bulletin120-91, Report No. 4 (State of California, Sacramento,California, 1991), reprinted inPeter H. Gleick and Linda Nash, The Societaland Environmental Costs of the Continuing CaliforniaDrought (Pacific Institute for Studiesin Development, Environment and Security,Berkeley, California, 1991), p. 5.28. Peter H. Gleick and Linda Nash, The Societaland Environmental Costs of the Continuing CaliforniaDrought (Pacific Institute for Studiesin Development, Environment and Security,Berkeley, California, 1991), p. x.29. Ibid., pp. xii-xiv.30. Richard W. Stevenson, "Dry CaliforniaTurns to the Pacific," New York Times(March5,1991), p. Dl.31. Joyce R. Starr, "Water Wars," Foreign Policy,No. 82 (Spring 1991), p. 17.32. Ibid., p. 21.33. Ibid., pp. 24, 26.34. Ibid., pp. 27,29.35. Ibid., pp. 22, 33-34.36. Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), "An InternationalAction Programme on Water and SustainableAgricultural Development" (FAO,Rome, 1990), p. 15.37. United Nations Economic and Social Council,"Achievements of the InternationalDrinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade1981-90" (United Nations, New York,1990), pp. 3-6.38. Ibid., p. 21.39. Ibid., pp. 23-24.40. Preparatory Committee for the United NationsConference on Environment and Development(PREPCOM), "Protection of theQuality and Supply of Freshwater Resources:Application of Integrated Approachesto the Development, Managementand Use of Water Resources" (PREPCOM,Geneva, 1991), pp. 7-9.41. Ibid., pp. 2-4.42. Peter A. Kumble, The State of the Anacostia:1989 Status Report (Metropolitan WashingtonCouncil of Governments, Washington,D.C, 1990), pp. 13-19.43. Larry Master, "Aquatic Animals: EndangermentAlert," Nature Conservancy(March/April 1991), pp. 26-27.44. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), Water Pollutionby Fertilizers and Pesticides (OECD, Paris,1986), p. 65.45. Timothy R. Henderson, "The InstitutionalFramework for Protecting Groundwater inthe United States," in Planning for GroundwaterProtection, G. William Page, ed. (AcademicPress, San Diego, California, 1987),pp. 29-30.46. Op. cit. 42, pp. 21-22.47. Op. cit. 40, pp. 11-13.48. M. Marchand and F.H. Toornstra, EcologicalGuidelines for River Basin Development (translatedfrom Dutch) (Commission on Ecologyand Development Cooperation, Leiden, theNetherlands, 1986), p. 1.49. Op. cit. 2, pp. 167-168.50. Peter Rogers, Peter Lydon, and DavidSeckler, Eastern Waters Study: Strategies toManage Flood and Drought in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin, prepared for U.S.Agency for International Development, (IrrigationSupport Project for Asia and theNear East, Arlington, Virginia, 1989), pp. 9and 12.51. Op.cit.l, pp. 232-234.52. Op. cit. 1, pp. 232-234.53. Op. cit. 48, p. 4.54. A.J. Bowie and C.K. Mutchler, "SedimentSources and Yields from Complex Watersheds,"in Proceedings of the Third InternationalSymposium on River Sedimentation, S.Y.Wang, H.W. Shen and L.Z. Ding, eds. (Universityof Mississippi, University, Mississippi,1986), p. 1223.55. Op. cit. 1, p. 250.56. John D. Milliman, "Fluvial Sediment inCoastal Seas: Flux and Fate," Nature and Resources,Vol. 26, No. 4 (Parthenon, ParkRidge, New Jersey, 1990), p. 16.57. Op.cit.2,pA71.58. Op. cit. 1, p. 240.59. Martine Allard, GEMS/Water Co-ordinator,National Water Institute, Burlington,Ontario, Canada, 1991 (personal communication).60. P.G. Waldo, "Sediment Yields from LargeWatersheds," in Third International Symposiumon River Sedimentation (University ofMississippi, University, Mississippi, 1986),p. 1241.61. Op. cit. 2, p. 168.62. Op. cit. 48, pp. 12-14.63. G. Noble and W. Wolff, "The Ecological Importanceof Wetlands," paper presented atthe Conference of the Contracting Parties ofthe Convention on Wetlands of InternationalImportance Especially as WaterfowlHabitat, Goningen, May 1984, cited in M.Marchand and F.H. Toornstra, EcologicalGuidelines for River Basin Development (translatedfrom Dutch) (Commission for Ecologyand Development Cooperation, Leiden, theNetherlands, 1986), p. 12.64. Mark K. Mitchell and William B. Stapp,Field Manual for Water Quality Monitoring:An Environmental Education Program forWorld Resources 1992-93173

11 FreshwaterSchools, 4th ed. (Thomson-Shores, Dexter,Michigan, 1990), p. 153.65. Robert C. Petersen, Jr., Bent Lauge Madsen,Margaret A. Wilzbach, et al., "Stream Management:Emerging Global Similarities,"Ambio, Vol. 16, No. 4 (1987), p. 16.66. Op. cit. 2, p. 16.67. Op. cit. 1, pp. 248-249.68. Jon Lugbill, Potomac River Basin Nutrient Inventory(Metropolitan Washington Councilof Governments, Washington, D.C., 1987),p. 141.69. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), Report to Congress: Water Quality ofthe Nation's Lakes (EPA, Washington, D.C.,1989), p. 12.70. Op. cit. 1, pp. 233-234.71. David Moody, Chief, Office of Water Summary,U.S. Geological Survey, Washington,D.C., 1991 (personal communication).72. Op. cit. 64, pp. 47 and 149.73. Bruce Newton, Chief, Watershed Branch,U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personal communication).74. "Urbanization Increases Temperatures inSmall Headwater Streams According toCOG Study," Waterline, Vol. 2, No. 3 (MetropolitanWashington Council of Governments,Washington, D.C., Winter 1991), pp.4-5.75. Op. cit. 69, p. 15.76. Op. cit. 1, p. 260.77. Op. cit. 1, p. 261.78. Op. cit. 64, p. 33.79. Op. cit. 40, p. 3.80. Don Hinrichsen, Our Common Seas: Coasts inCrisis, (EarthScan Publications, London, inassociation with the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Nairobi, 1990), p. 108.81. Op. cit. 2, p. 69.82. G. William Page, "Drinking Water andHealth," in Planning for Groundwater Protection,G. William Page, ed. (Academic Press,San Diego, California, 1987), p. 69.83. Michel Meybeck, Deborah V. Chapman,and Richard Helmer, eds., Global EnvironmentMonitoring System: Global FreshwaterQuality, A First Assessment (Basil BlackwellLtd., Oxford, U.K., 1989), p. 160.84. Rodney Sobin, Research Assistant, WorldResources Institute, Washington, D.C., 1991(personal communication).85. Op. cit. 82, p. 161.86. Op. cit. 82, p. 159.87. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), OECD EnvironmentalData Compendium 1991 (OECD, Paris,1991), Data Supplement, Tables 3.3 D and E,pp. 60-63.88. Op. cit. 2, p. 186.89. Op. cit. 83.90. Op. cit. 82, p. 12.91. Op. cit. 40, p. 3.92. Op. cit. 82, p. 282.93. Op. cit. 82, pp. 182-183.94. Op. cit. 82, p. 144.95. Op. cit. 82, p. 162-163.96. Op. cit. 82, p. 145.97. Op. cit. 82, p. 283.98. Op. cit. 82, p. 144.99. Op. cit. 40, p. 3.100. Op. cit. 1, p. 25.101. Op. cit. 44, pp. 30-31, 33, and 131.102. Op. cit. 44, pp. 25-26.103. Kenneth D. Frederick, "The DisappearingAral Sea," Resources, No. 102 (Winter 1991),p. 11.104. Op. cit. 1, p. 242.105. Robert F. Carsel and Charles N. Smith, "Impactof Pesticides on Ground Water Contamination,"in Silent Spring Revisited, Gino J.Marco, Robert M. Hollingworth, and WilliamDurham, eds. (American Chemical Society,Washington, D.C., 1987), p. 74.106. Ibid.,p.76.107. Op. cit. 44, pp. 100-101.108. R.L. Welcomme, River Basins (Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations,Rome, 1983), p. 38.109. Op. cit. 40, pp. 2-3.110. Op. cit. 106, p. 38.111. Op. cit. 65, p. 171-172.112. Martin R. Lee, John Blodgett, Claudia Copeland,et al, Summaries of Environmental LawsAdministered by the Environmental ProtectionAgency (Congressional Research Service,Washington, D.C., 1991), p. 34.113. Michel Grenon and Michel Batisse, eds., Futuresfor the Mediterranean Basin: The BluePlan (Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K.,1989), p. 255.114. Op. cit. 1, p. 263.115. Op. cit. 65, pp. 171-172.116. Op. cit. 1, p. 26.117. Peter Edwards, Aquaculture: A Component ofLow Cost Sanitation Technology (The WorldBank, Washington, D.C., 1985), pp. 3-14.118. Ibid., pp. 7-9.119. Ibid., pp. 37-42.120. John Elkington and Jonathan Shopley, CleaningUp: U.S. Waste Management Technologyand Third World Development (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C, 1989),p. 7.121. Kit D. Farber and Gary L. Rutledge, "PollutionAbatement and Control Expenditures:Revised Estimates for 1972-83, Estimates for1984," Survey of Current Business, Vol. 66,No. 7 (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureauof Economic Analysis, Washington,D.C), July 1986, p. 97.122. David M. Bratton and Gary L. Rutledge,"Pollution Abatement and Control Expenditures,1985-1988," Survey of Current Business,Vol. 70, No. 11, (U.S. Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington,D.C, November, 1990), p. 34.123. Op. cit. 118, p. 14.124. George Heaton, Robert Repetto, and RodneySobin, Transforming Technology: AnAgenda for Environmentally SustainableGrowth in the 21st Century (World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, D.C, 1991), p. 17.125. Larry Martin, Proven Profits from PollutionPrevention: Volume II (Institute for Local Self-Reliance, Washington, D.C, 1989), pp. 87-89.126. Ibid., pp. 65-69.127. Ibid., pp. 41-43.128. Warren R. Muir, "Testimony Before theUnited States Senate Committee on Environmentand Public Works, Subcommittee onEnvironmental Protection, on the Toxic Useand Source Reduction Provisions of S.976,The Resource Conservation and RecoveryAct Amendments of 1991" (INFORM, NewYork, July 24,1991), pp. 3 and 5.129. Mark Dorfman, Associate Program Director,INFORM, New York, 1991 (personalcommunication).130. Larry Martin, United Nations Conferenceon Environment and Development Liaison,The Other Economic Summit, Washington,D.C, 1991 (personal communication).131. Op. cit. 69, p. 16.132. Thomas R. Schueler, Controlling Urban Runoff:A Practical Manual for Planning andDesigning Urban BMPs (Metropolitan WashingtonCouncil of Governments, Washington,D.C, 1987), Figure 2.4, p. 2.13.133. Ibid., p. 2.11.134. Ibid.,p. 2.12.135. Op. cit. 74, p. 4.136. Op. cit. 68, p. 47 and Table 4.8, p. 50.137. Op. cit. 104, p. 81.138. Op. cit. 68, p. 77.139. Op. cit. 68, p. 85.140. Op. cit. 68, p. 94.141. Op. cit. 65, p. 170.142. Keith Schneider, "Returning Part of Evergladesto Nature for $700 Million," NewYork Times (March 11,1991), p. B10.143. Op. cit. 65, p. 172.144. Op. cit. 68, p. 128.145. B.M. Abbas, "River Basin Development:Keynote Address," in Proceedings of the NationalSymposium on River Basin Development,Munir Zaman, ed. (Tycooly International,Dublin, 1983), p. 6.146. Jerome Delli Priscoli, "Epilogue," Water International,Vol. 15, No. 4 (InternationalWater Resources Association, Urbana,Illinois, 1990), p. 236.147. Asit K. Biswas, "Some Major Issues in RiverBasin Management for Developing Countries,"in Proceedings of the National Symposiumon River Basin Development, MunirZaman, ed. (Tycooly International, Dublin,1983), p. 22.148. Op. cit. 31, p. 17.149. Andrew H. Darrell, "Killing the Rhine: Immoral,But Is It Illegal?" Virginia Journal of InternationalLaw, Vol. 29, No. 2 (1989), pp.441-447.150. Ibid.,p.4A9.151. Margaret S. Petersen, Water Resource Planningand Development (Prentice-Hall, EnglewoodCliffs, New Jersey, 1984), p. 164.152. United Nations (U.N.), "Convention on EnvironmentalImpact Assessment in a TransboundaryContext" (U.N., Espoo, Finland,1991), p. 2.153. John Bartholomew and Son, Times Atlas ofthe World, 7th ed. (Times Books, London,1988), p. xiv.154. Alexander Kiss, "The Protection of theRhine Against Pollution," Natural ResourcesJournal, Vol. 25, No. 3 (University of MexicoSchool of Law, Albuquerque, New Mexico,1985), pp. 621-625.155. A. Volker, "Integrated Development of theDelta and Upland Portions of a RiverBasin," in Proceedings of the National Symposiumon River Basin Development, MunirZaman, ed. (Tycooly International, Dublin,1983), pp. 47-50.156. J. de Jong, "Management of the RiverRhine," Water Environment and Technology,Vol. 2, No. 4, (April 1990), pp. 50-51.157. Peter H. Sand, Lessons Learned in Global EnvironmentalGovernance (World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C, 1990), p. 8.158. Op. cit. 154, p. 46.159. Op. cit. 154, p. 46.160. Richard L. Holman, "International WorldWire: Protection Pact for the Rhine," WallStreet Journal (August 22,1991), p. A7.161. Op. cit. 147, pp. 422 and 453.162. Op. cit. 154, pp. 46,49, and 50.174World Resources 1992-93

12. Oceans and CoastsThe trends of the past 20 years show increasing coastalpollution, accelerated destruction of coastal marinehabitats, and, in many areas, a declining catch of marinefish species that have been affected by overfishingand pollution.Marine pollution control efforts have shown good resultsin a few areas, but despite years of effort, only asmall fraction of the world's wastewater is treated. Inaddition, new surveys show that over 50 percent of nitrogen,phosphorus, and sediment pollution comes notfrom sewage discharge pipes but from runoff from cities,farms, and logging and mining operations. Fewgovernments attempt to control these pollutionsources. Marine pollution is especially serious in estuariesand enclosed seas, such as the Baltic and Mediterranean,where pollutants become trapped. (See FocusOn Coastal Pollution, below, and Chapter 11, "Freshwater,"Focus On River Basin Pollution.)The destruction of coastal habitat continued over thepast 20 years as countries developed their coastlinesfor urban, commercial, and industrial uses. For example,available figures indicate that most tropical countrieshave lost more than one half their mangroveforests. (See Coastal Habitat Destruction, below.)Pollution and destruction of coastal breeding andnursery grounds, combined with overfishing, have reducedthe catch of many important commercial fishspecies. While increasing the total catch per vesselover the past several decades, improvements in electronicnavigation, fish-finding instruments, and the efficiencyof fishing gear may have masked decliningpopulations in some areas. Yet, in the late 1980s,catches began declining in several major fishing areas.In 1990, the total global fish catch declined for the firsttime in 13 years. This situation may reflect natural fluctuationsin fish stocks and a decrease in fishing effortdictated by conservation efforts, but overfishing,coastal habitat destruction, and water pollution mayalso be the cause.Dealing with ocean pollution and overfishing can behampered by the longstanding tradition of freedom ofthe seas and the widespread misconception that the resourcesthere are unlimited. It is becoming increasinglyclear that without cooperative international management,the oceans—like freshwater—can be seriouslydegraded. There is also widespread failure to connectupstream polluting activities with coastal pollution becausewatersheds are typically fragmented into severalpolitical jurisdictions.Over the past 20 years, several international actionshave been taken to control both dumping of hazardousand radioactive materials at sea and pollutionWorld Resources 1992-93175

12 Oceans and Coastsfrom ships. Fishing agreements exist for a number ofregions and species. Under the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP), 10 regions have formed(and 3 more are forming) Regional Seas Programmesto protect coastal seas. More recently, nearly 1,000 marineprotected areas have been established by 71 nations.However, international commissions are beginningto recognize that only a few of these efforts haveeven considered the major sources of land-based oceanpollution, and none has succeeded in controlling them.Stopping land-based pollution, especially pollutantsfrom runoff, requires entering a new political arena,contesting powerful interests in agriculture and industry,and dealing with a nearly worldwide economicframework that allows land-based pollutant sources todispose of their wastes in waterways at no direct cost.CONDITIONS AND TRENDSGlobal TrendsPOLLUTION TRENDSBecause no international body regularly monitors theoceans' health, determining trends is difficult. Manynations cooperate with the United Nations InternationalOceanographic Commission and the United NationsEnvironment Programme's Regional SeasProgrammes; however, the data they gather are notyet sufficiently extensive and reliable for global assessment.Yet, periodic assessments and sporadic data indicatethat pollution is worsening in most areas.In 1990, a U.N. advisory panel, the Group of Expertson the Scientific Aspects of Marine Pollution(GESAMP), reported that coastal pollution was morewidespread globally than in 1982, when GESAMP firstreported on the oceans' health. (See World Resources1990-91, pp. 179-188.) GESAMP also reported rapiddestruction of coastal habitats worldwide, although itcould not estimate the rate of loss. It concluded that "ifunchecked, these trends will lead to global deteriorationin the quality and productivity of the marine environment"(l).Several recent studies reported that the percentageof pollutants coming from upstream sources is higherthan previously thought—accounting for up to 70 percentof nutrient pollution in some areas. (See Focus OnCoastal Pollution, below.)Nutrient PollutionGESAMP identified a worldwide overload of nutrients—mainlynitrogen and phosphorus from sewage,agricultural runoff, erosion, and other land-basedsources—as the most widespread and serious coastalpollution problem (2). Human activities may have increasedthe amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus enteringcoastal areas by 50-200 percent. The estimatednatural annual global discharge from rivers (based onmeasurements of unpolluted rivers) is 15 million metrictons of dissolved nitrogen and 1 million metric tonsof dissolved phosphorus (3). Estimates of the global anthropogenicannual discharge into rivers range from 7Figure 12.1 Increase in Population andPollution in 42 Major RiversMean Annual Nitrate Concentration(micromoles per liter)100-10- •AmazonMississippi0.1 110 1001,000Population Per Square KilometerSource: Adapted from Benjamin Peierls, Nina Caraco, Michael Pace, andJonathan Cole, "Human influence on river nitrogen," Nature, Vol. 350,4 April 1991, pp. 386-387.Note: Each dot represents one river.•' •i-• NileThames. Gangesmillion to 35 million metric tons of dissolved nitrogenand from 0.6 million to 3.75 million metric tons of dissolvedphosphorus (4). Most of these nutrients do notdisperse in the open ocean; instead they tend to remainin bays and along the continental shelf: only 0.44million metric tons of nitrogen and 0.3 million metrictons of phosphorus are added to suspended sedimentsin the deep ocean each year (5).Excess nutrients overfertilize a marine area, causingalgal blooms that deplete oxygen as they decay. Increasedalgal blooms, including those of toxic algae,can lead to mass kills of fish and invertebrates, tochanges in the composition of benthic communities,and to smothering of coral reefs. They are indicators ofpollution caused by excessive nutrients (6). The increasedalgal blooms—called red, brown, or greentides, depending on the color—have been reportedfrom coastal areas around the world, including the BalticSea; Kattegat and Skagerrak straits; Dutch WaddenSea; the North Sea; the Black Sea; Tolo Harbor, HongKong; Seto Inland Sea, Japan; the Gulf of Mexico; offNorth Carolina in the United States; off Prince EdwardIsland in Canada (7), and the East China Sea (8).The volume of nutrients entering coastal waters cangenerally be correlated with the number of people inthe watershed. As the population increases, so doesthe pollution. In 1991, a study of 42 rivers directlylinked the population density of a watershed and theamount of nitrogen pollutants in the watershed'scoastal area, a relationship long understood by biologistsbut previously unquantified (9). (See Figure 12.1.)Sewage treatment reduces nutrient pollution. Riversand bays that were cleaner in 1990 than in 1970 becauseof new sewage treatment facilities include thePotomac River near Washington, D.C., the SingaporeRiver and harbor, and the Hudson River and estuary(10) (11). Yet, most of the world's sewage still flows intocoastal areas untreated. (See Chapter 11, "Freshwater,"Tables 11.2 and 11.3.) Most industrialized countries are176World Resources 1992-93

Oceans and Coasts 12just beginning to consider nutrient runoff from agriculture,logging, and mining; it is ignored in most of theworld. (See Focus On Coastal Pollution, below.) Aspopulation increases, so does agriculture and other activitiesthat cause runoff pollution.Human Health ProblemsPathogenic bacteria and viruses contained in sewagecan cause gastrointestinal and other infections, such ashepatitis, cholera, and typhoid. These ailments mayarise from swimming or from eating seafood caught incontaminated sea water. According to the 1990GESAMP report, "the principal problem for humanhealth on a world-wide scale is the existence of pathogenicorganisms discharged with domestic sewage tocoastal waters, estuaries or rivers and drainage canalsthat carry these organisms to the sea" (12).Certain algae naturally produce toxic substances. Bivalvemolluscs that feed on these algae accumulate thetoxins and may cause paralytic and diarrhoeic shellfishpoisoning (PSP and DSP) when eaten by humans.PSP can cause respiratory paralysis and death by asphyxiain humans. First reported in Canada in 1793,PSP has become common throughout the world in thepast 20 years. DSP, which has appeared in many countries,causes severe gastrointestinal disorders, thoughno fatalities have been reported. Ciguatera, characterizedby neurological, cardiovascular, and gastrointestinalsymptoms, is caused by eating tropical fish thathave bioaccumulated toxins produced naturally in certainalgae. The toxin is found more commonly in algaefrom sewage-contaminated waters (13). Common innortheast Asian seas and the Pacific, ciguatera affectsabout 50,000 people a year (14). In some areas these toxinshave constrained the development of fisheries.Toxic Chemical PollutionHeavy metals and synthetic organic compounds aretaken up by marine organisms through the food web,with larger amounts of the chemicals accumulating inpredatory fish. These chemicals can cause lesions andtumors in fish and accumulate in humans who eat thefish (15). A recent U.S. study shows a clear associationbetween diseased fish and chemically polluted sites(16). High levels of chemical pollutants are found in localized"hot spots" around urban and industrializedareas (17), and traces of synthetic organic compounds,such as DDT and PCBs, are found in ocean watersfrom the Arctic to the Antarctic (18). High levels of syntheticorganic compounds can accumulate in marinemammals feeding in polluted waters and are suspectedof lowering the animals' resistance to disease(19). Outbreaks of fatal viral diseases appeared in marinemammals in the North Sea, off the coast of Spain,in the Mediterranean Sea, in the Saint Lawrence Seaway,and in the Atlantic off the United States and Canadain recent years (20) (21) (22).For four of six heavy metals—arsenic, cadmium,lead, and tin—anthropogenic atmospheric emissionsfar exceed natural atmospheric emissions. Naturalemission of the two other heavy metals—mercury andselenium—are higher than natural levels (23). The MusselWatch program of the U.S. National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration monitors bioaccumulationof heavy metals and other toxic materials in musselsand oysters along the U.S. coast. In 1990, it foundthat lead levels in mussels had fallen since the phaseoutof leaded gasoline in the late 1970s. But levels ofcopper had increased (24).The human health effects of eating fish or shellfishcontaminated by synthetic organic compounds orheavy metals depend on their concentrations in theseafood and on how much seafood is consumed (25).Obviously, those most affected would be fishermenand coastal dwellers whose main source of protein isrestricted to fish from polluted waters. In tropical developingcountries, 60 percent of the people dependon fish for 40 percent or more of their protein (26). Unfortunately,few of these fish are tested for contamination,human health records are poorly kept, and littleis known about the human health effects of long-termlow-concentration exposures. Outbreaks of acute poisoningsoccur periodically (27). In some parts of theUnited States, women of childbearing age are warnednot to eat trout or salmon—two predatory game fish—because they contain levels of synthetic organic compoundsthat could cause birth defects.COASTAL HABITAT DESTRUCTIONCoastal habitats, especially wetlands, mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are rapidly being cleared forurban, industrial, and recreational growth as well asfor aquaculture ponds. Coral reefs are being destroyedby pollutants, siltation from upstream erosion, use ofdynamite and poison in fishing, and mining for constructionmaterials.Population pressures on coastal habitats are growing.New data on coastal population growth showsthat about one third of the world's urban populationlives within 60 kilometers of the coast. From 1980 to2000, coastal urban populations are expected to increaseby 380 million—about the 1990 population ofCanada, the United States, and Mexico (28). Few countrieshave plans to manage development in coastalareas to offset the impact of this growth.Measures of coastal habitat loss in developing countriesare difficult to obtain. But indications are alarming.For example, in tropical countries where estimateshave been calculated, the loss of mangroves averageswell over 50 percent of the pre-agricultural area. (SeeTable 12.1.) Industrialized countries have cleared mostof their coastal wetlands. The United States has lostover 50 percent of its coastal wetlands (29). The rate ofloss has slowed since the mid-1970s, with the promulgationof state and federal regulations (30). In the Mediterranean,wetlands have been drained for developmentand for the prevention of malaria. As a result,Italy had lost over 95 percent of its historic wetlandsby 1972 (31).Coastal habitat loss is important because 90 percentof the world's marine fish catch (measured by weight)reproduces in these areas (32). Deep-water fish oftenWorld Resources 1992-93177

12 Oceans and CoastsTable 12.1 Loss of Mangroves in SelectedCountries Since Preagricultural TimesLocationAfricaAngolaCameroonCoted'lvoireDjiboutiEquatorial GuineaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLiberiaMadagascarMozambiqueNigeriaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaTanzaniaZaireCentral AmericaGuatemalaAsiaBangladeshCambodiaIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaPakistanPhilippinesThailandViet NamTotalCurrent sq km1,1004,860640901201,1505106301,2003,1509303601,3022,76012,2004203,4005404502,1201,2505002,9101561,89421,0117,3101,5407771911,46876,939Percentage Lost504060706050707060707070406050405070506050607358545327861876256Source: World Resources Institute in collaboration with the United NationsEnvironment Programme and the United Nations Development Programme,World Resources 1990-91 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1990),Table 20.4, pp. 306-307.feed on fish that spawn in coastal areas. The U.S. NationalMarine Fisheries Service estimates that 77 percentof the nation's commercial fish catch is fromspecies that depend on estuarine wetlands for survival(reproduction, nursery areas, food production, or migration).In the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast Atlanticstates, 98 percent of the commercial fish catch dependson estuaries (33). Degradation of coastal habitatscan have long-term consequences for populations.Coral Reef BleachingOf recent concern is a potential new threat to coralreefs—elevated sea temperatures that may be causedby global warming. Over the past several years, researchersin the Caribbean and eastern Pacific observedincreased coral "bleaching," in which thecoral's symbiotic algae, which give coral its color, abandonthe coral. Without these algae, the coral will eventuallydie. Known causes of bleaching include pollutionand sedimentation. But in some areas, researcherscorrelated the increased incidents of bleaching withwater temperatures one or two degrees higher thannormal, leading them to warn that reefs might becomea casualty of global warming. Fifty scientists meetingin Miami in 1991 concluded that the incidence ofbleaching has increased, much of it related to higherwater temperatures, but these incidents indicate environmentalstress, not global climate change. However,they warned that a 3^1° C rise in ocean temperatureFigure 12.2 Global Fish Catch, 1950-90(million metric tons)100-60-60-40-20-Total Fish Catch— Marine Catch— Freshwater Catch ^ryI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I j I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990Source: Chapter 23, "Oceans and Coasts," Table 23.2.Note: 1990 figure is preliminary.predicted to be caused by global warming could seriouslydamage corals. The scientists strongly recommendeda global program of coral reef monitoring (34)(35) (36).Threats to The Ocean's SurfaceAlthough the open ocean still appears relatively clean,new studies indicate possible dangers to microscopicplants and animals that live on the ocean's surface andconstitute an important part of the oceanic food web.Initial reports show that increased UV-B radiation resultingfrom a thinning of the ozone layer can cause reducedproductivity or death in several surface-dwellingorganisms, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fishlarvae, for example (37). In addition, new studies indicatethat pollutants tend to concentrate in the ocean'supper layer—a critical reproductive and feedingground for many commercially important species.Heavily trafficked seas near industrialized regions areespecially vulnerable. Surface waters collected 100—200 kilometers offshore in the North Sea were contaminatedwith enough heavy metals and other pollutantsto be toxic to the embryos of various species (38) (39).FISHERIES TRENDSThe world harvest of fish, crustaceans, and molluscsreached a record 99.6 million metric tons in 1989, thendeclined to 95.2 million in 1990, according to preliminaryfigures from the Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO) (40). (See Figure 12.2.)Most of the 1989 increase was attributed to increasedinland aquaculture, mainly in Asia and Africa. Landingsof wild marine fish decreased or remained stablein most areas in 1989. The 4 percent decline in the 1990catch was attributed to a 12 percent decline in thecatch of small pelagic fish used for animal feed in theSoutheast Pacific off the coast of South America and toreduced quotas for some North Atlantic species owingto conservation measures (41).178World Resources 1992-93

Figure 12.3 World Fishery Catches, Increase or Decrease by Region, 1989-90Oceans and Coasts 12Exceeds Maximum Sustainable YieldSource: Adele Crispoldi, Fishery Statistician, Fishery Information Data and Statistics Service, Fisheries Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations (FAO), Rome, 1991 (personal communication).Note: Up arrow indicates a larger fish catch in 1990 than in 1989. Down arrow indicates a smaller catch. No arrow indicates the catch remained stable. Shaded oceanareas indicate a catch that exceeds maximum sustainable yield.Perhaps more importantly, the FAO reported thatmost traditional marine fish stocks have reached fullexploitation; that is, an intensified fishing effort is unlikelyto produce an increase in catch, and the use ofany new fishing methods that did increase the catchwould cause overfishing and therefore a further declinein fish populations (42). Four of FAO's 17 majormarine fishing areas are overfished. They reportcatches over the maximum sustainable limit set by theFAO. (See Figure 12.3.)Between 1988 and 1990, the fish catch declined in 9fishing areas, remained stable in 3, and increased in 5.(See Figure 12.3.) In some areas, where the total catchremained stable or increased, catches of the most commerciallyvaluable fish declined.• The largest decrease occurred in the Southeast Pacific,which is heavily influenced by the anchovy catch offPeru.• In the Northwest Pacific, the catch of pelagic fish decreasedoff Japan. The abundance of these fish is influencedby change in the Kuroshio current as well as byfishing pressures.• In the North Pacific off Alaska, landings of pollack decreased,though the overall catch of commercially valuablefish increased.• In the Northeast Atlantic off Europe, where most commerciallyvaluable species are already under quota restrictionsbecause of overfishing, the reported catchdeclined substantially (43).Table 12.2 shows that 30 percent of the species,stocks, or species groups caught by U.S. fishermenhave declined since 1977 (the year the United States extendedits jurisdiction out to 200 nautical miles). Sixtyfourpercent of U.S. fish species, stocks, or speciesgroups are fully or over exploited, with 18 percent inthe overexploited category.Table 12.2 Declines in U.S. FisheriesA1990 assessment of fisheries within the 200-mile U.S. exclusive economic zoneby a nonprofit research institute reported the following conclusions:PercentA. 18 percent of U.S. fish stocks are overexploitedSpecies, Stocks, or Species Groups {a}Level of ExploitationNumberOverexploitedProtectedNot available1443 1854Not exploitedUnderexploitedModerately exploitedFully exploited11013361131646B. 30 percent of U.S. fish stocks have declined since 1977Abundance TrendIncreasingStableFluctuatingDecreasingNot available/unknownSpecies, Stocks, or Species Groups {b}Number161942827PercentSource: Amos Eno, The National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, WeedsAssessment of the National Marine Fisheries Service (The National Fishand Wildlife Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1990), pp. 73-74.Notes:a. The statistics may represent entire fisheries management program (FMP)units, separate species, or individual stocks covered under an FMP.Percentage figures do not total 100 because two species are counted twice;Atlantic salmon and red drum were reported as both overexploited andprotected. Regulated fishing continues in other overexploited fisheries.172043029b. Statistics may represent FMP management units, separate species, orindividual stocks covered under an FMP.World Resources 1992-93179

12 Oceans and CoastsBox 12.1 Global Fishery Trends Mask ChangesThe steady increase in the world fish catchthrough 1989 is misleading. It masks declinesin some species caused by overfishingand habitat loss or changes in thenumbers of other species caused by naturalclimatic oscillations. For example, theJapanese pilchard catch increased morethan sixfold between 1970 and 1989 becauseof favorable conditions created bythe Kuroshio current (l). In the North Atlantic,when herring was overfished in thelate 1970s, fishermen switched to capelin,overfishing that species by the late 1980s.The herring population, given a chance torecover by fishing restrictions, began tobuild up its population in the mid-1980s (2).Figure 1 shows a situation in which overfishingmay have permanently changedthe composition of a fish community onGeorges Bank. As high-value groundfish,such as the flounder, were depleted,skates, dogfish, and other low-value speciesreplaced them. Because they competewith groundfish for food, the groundfishpopulation may not recover (3).Generally, when larger fish—mainlyused as food for humans—are overexploited,they are replaced by smaller,fast-growing species more likely to beused for animal feed. In some cases, reducingthe fishing pressure restores the originalspecies composition, but not always.The Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe United Nations warns that overfishingmay shift species dominance towardsmaller species, "thereby modifying theoptions available for development" (4).References and Notes1. Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), "Environment andSustainability in Fisheries" (FAO, Rome,February 1991), p. 9.2. Ibid.3. Massachusetts Offshore Groundfish TaskForce, New England Groundfish in Crisis—Again (Massachusetts Offshore GroundfishTask Force, Boston, 1990), pp. 9-10.Figure 1 Changes in SpeciesComposition Caused byOverfishing(kilog120-1100-60-40-o-ams per ton)Skate,FlounderandDogfish, and Cod-LikeRelated Species Species .1965 1967 1969 1971 197319751977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989Source: Massachusetts Offshore Groundfish Task Force, New EnglandGroundfish in Crisis—Again (Massachusetts OffshoreGroundfish Task Force, Boston, 1990), p. 10.4. Food and Agricultural Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), "Recent Developments,"(FAO, Rome, April 1991), p. 16.In New England, an area with a longstanding fishery,a special task force reported in 1990 that landingsof commercially valuable fish had reached their lowestreported level, causing a loss of $350 million in incomeand 14,000 jobs. Overfishing of commercially valuablespecies, such as cod, haddock, and flounder, has led toan increase in the catch of less valuable species, suchas dogfish and skates. (See Box 12.1.) The task force recommendedstrict quotas on certain species in hopes ofrestoring commercial fish to their 1960 abundance in 5-10 years (44).Other fishery issues involve the use of powerfulocean driftnets that trap most marine life in their path(see Box 12.2) and the continuing tuna-dolphin controversy(see Recent Developments, below).AQUACULTUREThe vast majority of the world's fish, about 87 percent,comes from marine areas. About 13 percent of the catchis from inland fisheries (45). Although aquaculture productionhas been growing steadily and is expected todouble by the end of the century, it accounts for only 12percent of global fish production (7 million metric tonsfrom inland aquaculture and 5 million metric tons frommarine aquaculture) (46). (See Figure 12.4.)Aquaculture has followed two paths: the traditionalrural aquaculture practiced extensively in developingcountries and the intensive commercial aquaculture(usually of shrimp and other high-value species) practicedin both developing and developed countries (47).The second type, growing in popularity among manyAsian and Latin American countries as an export industry,could have harmful consequences. For example,shrimp aquaculture replaces coastal mangrovehabitats, reducing the breeding grounds of wildstocks. The finfish that are farmed are limited to carp,tilapia, salmon, trout, striped bass, catfish, milkfish,and amberjack, and the shellfish mainly to shrimps,but oysters, mussels, and clams are farmed as well.The FAO cautions that "concern should be given tomaintaining wild species diversity until more isknown about a considerable number of species" (48).Key IssuesA REGIONAL APPROACH TO PREVENTINGPOLLUTIONUnlike other issues—climate change, biodiversity, deforestation—forwhich global conventions or actionplans are being formulated for the United NationsConference on Environment and Development(UNCED) to be held in June 1992, experts meeting todiscuss ocean issues are promoting a regional approach,with new emphasis on controlling land-basedpollution.Of the 15 regional seas agreements, 10 are underUNEP auspices. Agreements for the Antarctic, theNorth Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Northeast Atlantic, andthe Nordic Area preceded UNEP's Regional Seas Programme.UNEP is developing three new Regional SeasProgrammes, for the Black Sea, the Northwest Pacific,and the Southwest Atlantic (49). Table 12.3 shows thetypes of agreements concluded by each group. Typically,a regional seas group begins with a frameworkconvention. This may be followed by progressiveagreements to establish scientific cooperation and monitoringefforts, to respond cooperatively to oil spills orother environmental emergencies, to curb pollution180World Resources 1998-93

Oceans and Coasts 12Figure 12.4 World Marine and FreshwaterFish Catch, 1989Wild Marine 82%Wild Inland 6%Aquaculture Inland 7%Aquaculture Marine 5%Only six regions (the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, theNortheast Atlantic, the Mediterranean, the PersianGulf, and the Southeast Pacific) have agreements inforce that deal with land-based pollution. (See Table12.3.) The Mediterranean Regional Seas Programme recentlypublished a comprehensive plan dealing withland-based sources. (See Focus On Coastal Pollution,below.)The regional seas programs may seem to move ponderously,often hampered by political and financialproblems. Yet, they have overcome intense animositiesamong individual countries in order to form workingalliances. Examples are the regional seas programsthat gained cooperation between Iran and Iraq in thePersian Gulf, the United States and Cuba in the Caribbean,and Israel and Syria in the Mediterranean (50).Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), "Environmentand Sustainability in Fisheries" (FAO, Rome, February 1991), p. 12.(first from ocean dumping and then from land-basedsources), and possibly to protect marine species orareas. The most effective, and the rarest, agreements involveending certain pollution by an agreed deadline.FOCUS ON COASTAL POLLUTIONSophisticated methods of measuring and trackingcoastal pollutants are confirming what had long beensuspected by coastal scientists: pollutants carried byrivers—in runoff from inland farm fields, logged forests,and urban streets as well as municipal and industrialdischarges—introduce damaging levels ofBox 12.2 Driftnet FisheriesUse of large driftnets—nets that hang verticallyand stretch 5-50 kilometers—by industrialfishing fleets has proven soefficient at catching targeted fish as well asnontargeted fish, marine mammals, andbirds that the United Nations General Assemblyand several regional associationshave denounced them. In a December1989 resolution, the United Nations urgedthat, unless major fishing nations implementconservation measures to mitigatethe impacts of driftnets, a moratorium onhigh seas driftnetting should take effect inJune 1992. In addition, the United Nationsrecommended an immediate end to fishingin the South Pacific and a cessation ofthe growth of driftnet fishing in otheroceans. Small driftnets used by coastalfishermen would not be affected by theU.N. moratorium (l).In November 1989, South Pacific nationsagreed by a formal convention adopted atWellington, New Zealand to restrict driftnetfishing in the region (2). Australia, Fiji,Indonesia, New Zealand, and the UnitedStates banned the use of driftnets largerthan 2.5 kilometers within their watersand by their nationals on the high seas. OnOctober 28,1991, the European Community(EC) imposed a similar ban on the useof large driftnets by EC vessels in EC watersand on the high seas. The EC ban didnot cover the Baltic Sea and, with some restrictionson the type of nets used, exemptedalbacore fishing vessels in theNortheast Atlantic until December 1993.Japan, a major driftnet fishing nation,bowed to international pressure in late1991 and agreed to curtail one half its remainingdriftnet fishery by June 1992 andthe other half by the end of the year 0). Asof late 1991, Japan and Korea, but not Taiwan,had stopped driftnet fishing in theSouth Pacific. Driftnetting by Japanese, Korean,and Taiwanese fishing fleets continuedin the North Pacific and, to a lesserextent, by French, British, and Irish fleetsin the Atlantic and by the Taiwanese fleetsin the Indian Ocean (4). Some driftnet fishingnations are urging the United Nationsto postpone the moratorium while theUnited States, Canada, Australia, andNew Zealand favor keeping the worldwidemoratorium on schedule (5).Driftnets are a type of gillnet that, hanginglike curtains in the ocean, are suspendedby floats at or near the surface.Fish that attempt to swim through the netsbecome entangled by their gills. Of concernare the huge oceanic driftnets usedmainly to catch commercial species distributedin low densities over large areas,such as the albacore tuna and squid. In additionto catching target species efficiently,driftnets capture other fish, mammals, andbirds. For example, the North Pacificdriftnet fishery caught and discarded100,000 metric tons of pomfret, a nontargetfish, in 1988-89 according to the Foodand Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations. Between 300,000 and 1million cetaceans, mainly dolphins, werekilled by driftnets worldwide during thesame period (6).In a survey of 10 percent of the Japanesesquid driftnet fishing operations in theNorth Pacific during the 1990 season, scientificobservers reported mortality of1,758 whales and dolphins, 30,464 seabirds,81,956 blue sharks, 253,288 tuna,and more than 3 million pomfret (7).References and Notes1. Report of the Secretary-General, UnitedNations (U.N.), "Large Scale PelagicDriftnet Fishing and Its Impact on the LivingMarine Resources of the World'sOceans and Seas" (U.N., New York, 1990),pp. 1 and 8.2. Ibid., p. 6.3. Steven R. Weisman, "Japan Agrees to EndUse of Huge Fishing Nets," New YorkTimes, November 27,1991, p. A3.4. Report of the Secretary General, UnitedNations (U.N.), "Large Scale PelagicDriftnet Fishing and Its Impact on the LivingMarine Resources of the World'sOceans and Seas" (U.N., New York, 1991),pp. 5-11 and Corr. 1.5. "Large Scale Pelagic Driftnet Fishing andIts Impact on the Living Marine Resourcesof the World's Oceans and Seas," draft resolution:Australia, Canada, FederatedStates of Micronesia, New Zealand, Romania,Soloman Islands, Sweden, and theUnited States (United Nations, New York,1991), pp. 1-3.6. Op. cit. 1, pp. 14-16.7. International North Pacific Fisheries Commission,"Final Report of 1990 Observationsof the Japanese High Seas Squid DriftnetFishery of the North Pacific Ocean,"(Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle,1991) Table 24, pp. 193-195World Resources 1992-93181

12 Oceans and CoastsRecent DevelopmentsGULF OIL SPILL LEAVES MASSIVEENVIRONMENTAL TOLLThe deliberate release of oil from Kuwait'sSea Island terminal by Iraqi soldiers onJanuary 19,1991 devastated hundreds ofmiles of shoreline and wreaked untolddamage on marine life in the Persian Gulf.Its impact was worsened by the naturalcharacteristics of the Persian Gulf. Notonly is the gulf shallow, but its currenttakes about three years to circulate completely.The coastline includes numeroussalt marshes, lagoons, tidal flats d), coralreefs, seagrass beds, and some coastalmangrove forests (2).Initial estimates of the amount of oil released,primarily from the Sea Island terminal,varied widely. By mid-1991, theestimate was about 950,000 cubic meters—nearly twice the previous record spill atIxtoc, a drilling rig blowout in the Gulf ofMexico. It was 20 times larger than the1989 Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska. In June1991, Saudi officials reported that the terminaland sunken tankers were still releasingabout 400 cubic meters per day, but byAugust, the leaks were estimated at 75metric tons daily (3).Most of the oil moved south along thecoast of Saudi Arabia and in March wentashore near the peninsula of Abu Ali. Relativelylittle reached Bahrain or Qatar, tothe south. Saudi Arabia suffered extensivedamage; about 350 miles of coastline, includingnumerous marshes and tidal flats,were inundated with oil (4). All the mangrovesand over 90 percent of the saltmarshes were affected. Recovery couldtake a decade (5).The cleanup effort had few successes.Booms, nets, and skimmers were deployedto protect the water-intake pipes ofSaudi desalination plants and refineries. InJune, Aramco, the Saudi Arabian Oil Co.,and the Saudi Meteorology and EnvironmentalProtection Administration (MEPA)claimed that they had scooped up about300,000 cubic meters of crude, whichwould be the most oil recovered from amajor spill. But none of the bays or inletswas protected, 20,000-30,000 birds werekilled, and the salt marshes were mattedwith oil. In addition, Kuwait's burningwells emitted large quantities of soot,some of which fell into gulf waters (6).Assessing the long-term damage is difficult.Debate over the long-term impacts ofthe Exxon Valdez spill continues, withsome studies suggesting that it may be decadesbefore all the seabird colonies andmarine organisms recover fully (7).The value of cleanup techniques also remainsunsettled. Some scientists, for example,question whether spraying hot waterat high pressure to remove oil as was donein the Exxon Valdez cleanup may delay recoveryof an ecosystem (8).Saudi officials rejected the introductionof oil-consuming bacteria into the gulf, becauseit is still a relatively unproven technology.They also resisted sprinkling theshoreline with nitrogen-based fertilizers,which could help degrade the oil but couldalso cause algal blooms in the gulf (9).GATT OVERRULES U.S. BAN ONMEXICO TUNA IMPORTSAn international trade panel in August1991 ruled that the United States may notban imports of tuna caught by Mexicanboats, which use fishing techniques that incidentallykill more dolphins than U.S.tuna boats.The panel's decision affects not only dolphinsbut could undermine a broad rangeof international environmental protections.If adopted by a majority of the 108member nations, the decision could makeit impossible for parties to the GeneralAgreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)to use trade sanctions to protect natural resourcesoutside their borders. And it couldundermine efforts to regulate domestic industriesto protect the environment, sincesuch regulations would undermine thecompetitiveness of domestic products (10).A U.S. law bans the import of tuna fromcountries that allow more dolphins to bekilled during tuna fishing operations thanthe U.S. fleet; the ban also applies to countriesthat buy tuna products from thebanned countries. Mexico and a halfdozenother countries protested the lawbefore a panel of the GATT, arguing that itwas an assertion of extraterritorial powers.A GATT panel found the law in violationof GATT rules that prevent a country fromtelling other countries how to producegoods for export (11). The United States isbound to comply with the ruling if it is approvedby the member nations. However,in late September, the United States andMexico agreed not to submit the ruling tothe full membership. Given the broad implicationsof the ruling for international environmentalprotection and concern raisedabout Mexico's environmental record inthe context of North American free tradetalks, both governments prefer to pursue abilateral solution to the conflict.Mexican officials say that they remaincommitted to marine conservation andthat the Mexican tuna fleet has reducedthe annual dolphin kill 70 percent over theprevious five years ill).The latest estimates of dolphin deaths resultingfrom tuna fishing in the easterntropical Pacific Ocean, where fishing effortis concentrated, show a significant decline.In 1990, the estimated incidental kill onnon-U.S. vessels was 47,448, about 56 percentof the 1989 level. The kill on U.S. vesselsis estimated at 5,083, less than one halfthe 1989 total (13).References and Notes1. John Horgan, "The Muddled Cleanup inthe Persian Gulf," Scientific American, Vol.265, No. 4 (1991), pp. 106-110.2. World Conservation Monitoring Centre(WCMC), "Gulf War Environmental InformationService: Impact on the Marine Environment,"WCMC, Cambridge, U.K.,January 31,1991, p. 4.3. Op. cit. 1, p. 106.4. Op. cit. 1, p. 106.5. World Conservation Monitoring Centre(WCMC), "Gulf War Environmental InformationService Environmental Briefing,"WCMC, Cambridge, U.K., June 7,1991,p. 3.6. Op. cit A.7. John Lancaster, "Long-term Damage Seenfrom Exxon Valdez Spill," Washington Post(February 21,1991), p. Al.8. Marguerite Holloway, "Soiled Shores," ScientificAmerican, Vol. 265, No. 4 (1991), pp.104-105.9. Op. cit. l,p. 110.10. Center for International EnvironmentalLaw (CIEL), "GATT Panel Rules on TunaTrade Sanctions," press release (CIEL,Washington, D.C., 1991), p. 2.11. Keith Bradsher, "U.S. Ban on Mexico TunaIs Overruled," New York Times (August 23,1991), p. Dl.12. Ibid.13. U.S. Marine Mammal Commission, AnnualReport of the Marine Mammal Commission,Calendar Year 1990 (Marine Mammal Commission,Washington, D.C., 1991), p. 101.sediments, nutrients, and toxins into coastal waters (51)(52). But so far, governments have focused on the moreobvious causes of coastal pollution, such as coastal dischargesof sewage and industrial chemicals.Further, because coastal areas have borne such costsof pollution as the reduced fishery harvests, there hasbeen little incentive to stop polluting activities upstream.Until these costs are recognized and agreementsworked out among various interest groups orup- and downstream jurisdictions, coastal areas willlikely continue to be a dumping ground.In many major bays and seas, a large proportion ofpollutants comes not from coastal sources but from thewatershed. A1991 survey of 85 coastal watersheds inthe United States found that upstream sources, includingagricultural and urban runoff, accounted for about70 percent of the nitrogen and 60 percent of the phosphorusin the estuaries studied. (See Box 12.3.) In theBlack Sea, the main causes of deterioration were re-182World Resources 1982-93

Oceans and Coasts 12duced riverflow and increases in its organic and toxicpollutants. (See Box 12.4.) An exhaustive study of theMediterranean found that at least one half the nutrientpollutants, mercury, chrome, lead, zinc, pesticides,and radioactive materials comes from rivers drainingareas outside the immediate coastal zone (53). Althoughhigh levels of pollutants are being documentedin major watersheds, no information has been systematicallycollected worldwide.Traditional economic evaluations of freshwater andcoastal resources hide the real costs of pollution imposedby upstream inhabitants on their downstreamneighbors (54). But closer investigation is revealing. Forexample, a recent study showed that the smothering ofcoral reefs by sediments from logging in the watershedsurrounding Bacuit Bay in the Philippines will likelyreduce gross revenues $41 million over 10 years, primarilythrough losses in tourism and fishing (55).Activities of governmental and nongovernmental organizationsoften reflect this artificial separation of terrestrialfrom marine coastal environments andresources. Governmental agencies responsible for marinefisheries and environments, for example, have littleor no influence on damaging upland activities, andforestry agencies do not consider coastal impacts oflogging. Nongovernmental organizations concernedwith agricultural, forest, and urban issues seldom considerthe effects of favored policies upon coastal resources.Both governmental and citizen institutionsconcerned with coastal water conservation have onlyrecently looked to watersheds for the causes of deterioratingcoastal water quality and resources.Table 12.3 Regional Seas Agreements,Selected ProvisionsRegionRegional Programs Predating UNEP ProgramsAntarcticNorth SeaBaltic SeaArctic andNortheast AtlanticNordic AreaCCCCCCCCPPC12/59, Washington, D.C.5/80, Canberra6/69, Bonn9/83, Bonn9/71, Copenhagen3/74, Helsinki2/72, Oslo6/74, Paris3/83, Oslo3/86, Paris*2/74, StockholmUNEP Regional Seas ProgramsMediterraneanPersian Gulf andGulf of OmanWest and CentralAfricaSoutheast PacificRed Sea and Gulfof AdenWider CaribbeanEast AfricaSouth PacificEast AsiaSouth AsiaCPPPCPTRENDS IN MARINE POLLUTION CONTROLEarly pollution control efforts began with the most obvioussource, direct dumping, and progressed to controllingindustrial and municipal discharge pipes(point sources).The first efforts focused on sludge and debris. TheLondon Dumping Convention of 1972, which 65 nationshad adopted by 1990, prohibits deliberate oceandumping of wastes, including radioactive and toxicwastes. At their November 1990 meeting, the parties tothe London Dumping Convention agreed to a completephase-out of industrial waste dumping by 1995 (56).Some 80-90 percent of the material dumped directlyat sea is dredge spoils, mostly silt from harbors, rivers,and other waterways. And about 10 percent of it is contaminatedwith oil, heavy metals, nutrients, and chlorinatedhydrocarbons from shipping, industrial andmunicipal discharges, and runoff (57).Throughout the world, ports are dredged at publicexpense. Toxic chemical contamination has magnifiedthe costs of disposing of these dredge spoils safely. In1991, a new kind of environmental agreement was negotiatedbetween Rotterdam and the German ChemicalsManufacturers Association (VCI). The VCI agreedto reduce the levels of seven heavy metals it dischargedinto the Rhine River by 1995. In return, thecity agreed to drop lawsuits against member companiesin which it sought damages for the cost of dispos-00-0-0.00-OOO-0-0-0-c pCPPCPPCPP2/76, Barcelona2/76, Barcelona2/76, Barcelona5/80, Athens1/81, Monaco5/82, Geneva4/78, Kuwait4/78, Kuwait3/89, Kuwait2/90, Kuwait3/81, Abidjan3/81, Abidjan11/81, Lima11/81, Lima7/83, Quito7/83, Quito9/89, Quito*9/89, Quito*2/82, Jeddah2/82, Jeddah3/83, Cartagena3/83, Cartagena1/90, Kingston*6/85, Nairobi*6/85, Nairobi*6/85, Nairobi*11/86, Noumea11/86, Noumea11/86, NoumeaDraft ConventionDraft ConventionSources:1. Economic Commission for Europe, "Convention on Environmental ImpactAssessment in a Transboundary Context," United Nations, 1991.2. United Nations (U.N.) Secretariat, Office of Ocean Affairs and the Law of theSea, "International Institutions and Legal Instruments," U.N., New York,1991, pp. 28-33.3. "Protection of Oceans, All Kinds of Seas Including Enclosed and Semi-Enclosed Seas, Coastal Areas and the Protection, Rational Use andDevelopment of their Living Resources," Preparatory Committee for theUnited Nations Conference on Environment and Development, U.N., NewYork, 1991, pp. 46-47.Notes: a. Protects environment between Denmark, Norway, Sweden, andFinland, b. Protects coastal waters, c. Protects against pollution resultingfrom exploration and exploitation of the continental shelf, d. Protectsagainst radioactive pollution.= not yet in force; • = provision*::••••••••••••••••••••{a}fb}{c}World Resources 1992-93183

12 Oceans and CoastsBox 12.3 Pollution of U.S. Coastal EstuariesA surprisingly large amount of nutrientsthat lead to water pollution—70 percent ofthe notrogen and 60 percent of the phosphorus—enteringU.S. coastal estuariescomes from upstream sources, both pointand nonpoint, that may originate hundredsof miles from the coast. (See Figure 1.)Figure 1 Sources of Nitrogen andPhosphorus in U.S. CoastalWaters, 1990(perc60"100-20-ent)Coaslai (Point) : I Co slai Non-point)NitrogenUpstreamPhosphorousSource: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Team on NearCoastal Waters, Strategic Assessment of Near Coastal Waters,4vols. (NOAA, Washington D.C., 1989-91).These findings from a four-part studypublished by the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA) between1989 and 1991 highlight the need toincorporate watershed planning intocoastal management. NOAA estimatedthe annual nitrogen and phosphorus inputsfrom various sources to 85 major estuaries(H. Because actual measurements ofnutrient concentrations for each estuarydo not exist, the next best data were obtainedby estimating these inputs and allowingfor variations in each estuary'sability to cleanse itself as measured by itstendency to concentrate pollutants. For example,even a low volume of nutrientscould cause a pollution problem in asmall, shallow, enclosed estuary, whereasa much larger volume of nutrients couldbe cleansed by a large estuary with strongcurrents that moved pollutants out intothe open ocean (2).Figure 2 shows the sources of nitrogenand phosphorus in estuaries with low, medium,and high susceptibility to nutrientpollution (the NOAA study makes a separategrouping for susceptibility to chemicalpollution). For estuaries with thehighest susceptibility to nitrogen pollution,about 20 percent of the nitrogen isfrom coastal point sources and 80 percentis from nonpoint (coastal) and all upstreamsources. (See Figure 2A.) Nitrogenis the limiting nutrient in most marine systems;it is the additional nitrogen thatoften initiates algal blooms. The majorsources of nitrogen are sediments, chemicalfertilizers, sewage, and runoff fromfeedlots. Phosphorus inputs are morelikely to come from coastal point sources—almost 70 percent in the most susceptibleestuaries compared to about 30 percentfrom coastal nonpoint and upstream. (SeeFigure 2B.) The major sources of phosphorusare synthetic laundry detergents andwater treatment chemicals (3).The most susceptible estuaries are notnecessarily currently the most polluted.The NOAA analysis of susceptibilitypoints out the sources of major nutrientsflowing into vulnerable estuaries as a toolfor policymakers (4).The study identifies point sources aswastewater treatment plants and industrialfacilities that discharge directly intosurface water in coastal counties. For purposesof the study, nonpoint sources wererunoff from agriculture, forest, urban andother types of land in coastal counties. Upstreamsources include input from all riversin the watershed from both point andnonpoint sources (5). The study is based oninputs of pollutants and does not subtractnutrients that might settle out of the waterbefore reaching the estuary. However, itnotes that most nitrogen and phosphorusare dissolved in the water rather than attachedto sediments that tend to settle. Inputsof nutrients from ocean influx,groundwater inflow, bottom sediments,wetlands, barren lands, or direct atmosphericdeposition to the estuary are notincluded (6). NOAA plans to continue thestudy by collecting site-specific informationon nutrient pollution.References and Notes1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency Team on Near CoastalWaters, Strategic Assessment of Near CoastalFigure 2 Susceptibility of U.S.Coastal Waters to Nitrogen andPhosporus Pollution, 1990A. NitrogenB. Phosphorus(percent)Coastal (Point) ^Coas al (Non-point!100-•• Hi60-20-Coastal (Point) II Coastal (Non-point)UpstreLow Medium HighSusceptibility Susceptibility Susceptibility(n=8) (n=38) (n=39)LowSu soeptibmtyMed umSuscerniit,suUpstreamHighcejbilitySource: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Team on NearCoastal Waters, Strategic Assessment of Near Coastal Waters,4vols. (Washington D.C., 1989-91).Waters, 4 vols. (NOAA, Rockville, Maryland,1989-1991).2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency Team on Near CoastalWaters, Strategic Assessment of Near CoastalWaters, Susceptibility of East Coast Estuariesto Nutrient Discharges: Passamaquoddy Bayto Chesapeake Bay (NOAA, Rockville, Maryland,1989), pp. 1 and 3.3. Ibid., p. 2.4. Ibid., pp. 3-4.5. Ibid., p. 3.6. Ibid.ing of 10 million cubic meters of contaminated sludgeper year (58). This lawsuit and the subsequent agreementare an example of shifting pollution costs to thepolluters upstream.In the 1980s, especially in partially enclosed areassuch as the Mediterranean and Baltic seas and theChesapeake Bay in the United States, billions of dollarswere spent to reduce the flow of sewage and industrialwastes into coastal waters. But success waslimited.Prevention measures led to significant reductionsin some areas. For example, between 1980 and 1985,sewer construction and other measures more thanhalved levels of key pollutants in Singapore's nearshorewaters (59). State governments in the ChesapeakeBay region reduced phosphorus discharges 29 percent184World Resources 1992-93

Oceans and Coasts 12between 1985 and 1988 by banning phosphate detergents.At the same time, despite improved sewagetreatment, nitrogen discharges increased 8 percent becausethe population increased (60). Surveys in U.S.coastal waters indicate that the phase-out of PCBs inthe 1970s has resulted in a decrease in the levels ofthese contaminants in mussels and oysters (61).Yet such reductions are not widespread. Collectionand conventional treatment of sewage remains anunmet need in many areas. By the late 1980s, only 72percent of the sewage generated in Europe and lessthan 5 percent of that in developing regions wastreated at any level. (See Chapter 11, "Freshwater,"Table 11.1.)UPSTREAM ACTIVITIES THAT POLLUTECOASTAL WATERSAmong the many upstream activities known to degradewater quality in coastal areas are logging, agriculture,and dam building for power and irrigation;urbanization and air pollution are also widespread.(See Chapter 11, "Freshwater," Focus On River BasinPollution.)LoggingBoth tree-cutting and road construction for loggingoperations expose underlying soil directly to wind andrain. Sediments transported by runoff into streamsand rivers smother sensitive nearshore coastal habitats,such as seagrass beds and coral reefs. In a 1986study, erosion of logged forest was found to be 240times greater per unit than that from uncut areas in thesame watershed above Bacuit Bay in the Philippines(62). Levels of suspended sediment discharged into thebay from the Manlag River, which drains two thirds ofthe watershed (including the logging concession area)were 1,000-3,000 milligrams per liter, compared with10-30 in a similar unlogged river in the same watershed(63). At the same time, sedimentation of reefs inthe bay reduced live coral cover as much as 50 percent(64). These losses led to further losses in both coral speciesdiversity and fish biomass (65).Analysis of the harm done to fishing and tourism inBacuit Bay indicates that a ban on logging would createnet economic and environmental benefits (66).Coral reefs and seagrass beds in other tropical countriesare also at risk from sedimentation from loggingoperations. Excessive sedimentation in temperate regionscan overwhelm communities of oysters andother filter-feeding invertebrates, block sunlight necessaryfor the growth of submerged aquatic vegetation(67), and damage spawning grounds of anadromousfish (68).AgricultureAgricultural operations can release high levels of sediments(69). Contaminants, including pesticides and fertilizers,bind to sediment particles and are carrieddownstream where they may be deposited in shallowestuaries (70). Pesticides and fertilizers are particularlyhazardous in estuaries because they are generally notflushed out and diluted in open waters (71).Although the effects of some pesticides on aquaticlife are well understood, many have not been tested(72). One half the 128 coastal fish kills off South Carolinain the United States between 1977 and 1984 wereattributed to pesticides (73). Other fish kills occur nearwatersheds where pesticide use is heavy (74). Some pesticides,such as mirex, are highly toxic to marineCrustacea (75). But chronic exposure to one or severalagricultural contaminants has been little explored (76).Studies indicate that regular consumption of fish andshellfish in heavily contaminated areas poses a highrisk to fetuses and children (77).Nitrogen from agricultural fertilizers and animalwastes enters coastal waters through runoff or frommigration through groundwaters. Excessive amountsof nitrogen (generally a limiting factor on marine plantgrowth just as phosphorus is limiting on freshwaterplant growth) has contributed to more frequent andwidespread algal blooms. (See Conditions and Trends,above.)Dam Construction and IrrigationDams can jeopardize living coastal resources by blockingthe migration of anadromous fish, preventing anadequate supply of nutrients to estuaries, altering salinityin estuaries beyond the tolerance of estuarinespecies, and introducing pollution from associated irrigation(78). In the U.S.S.R., dams have reduced naturalrunoff from the Dniester, Dnieper, and Don rivers by50-60 percent, aggravating the accumulation of saltsand pollutants in Black Sea coastal waters (79). Damsand canals also block migratory routes of anadromousfishes, virtually eliminating the commercial Russiansturgeon fisheries in the Black, Azov, and Caspian seas—once among the most productive in the world (80).Dams are often built to store water for the dry season.But besides eliminating flooding and reducing therelease of sediments and nutrients into productive estuarineareas, dams also reduce freshwater flows intoestuarine areas during dry seasons. In tropical regions,reduction of such inflows raises the salinity above tolerablelevels for mangroves or marsh grasses, whichprovide critical habitat for commercially valuable finfishand shellfish (81). Nutrient reductions from a watershedto estuarine and coastal marine waterscontribute to declines in commercial fisheries (82).Canalization for flood control or water supply canalso significantly reduce the flow of sediments, nutrients,and freshwater into estuarine areas, jeopardizingfishery resources. For example, diversion of water foragricultural and municipal uses has reduced freshwaterinflow to San Francisco Bay over 62 percent (83).This change contributed to declines of 60-80 percent inadult striped bass and greatly reduced survival ofyoung (84). Canalization of the Mississippi River has divertedriverborne sediments from productive coastalmarshes and contributed to the annual loss of 142square kilometers of wetlands in the Louisiana coastalzone (85).World Resources 1992-93185

12 Oceans and CoastsBox 12.4 The Black SeaThe Black Sea ecosystem, which has beenvisibly deteriorating since about 1970, hadreached a critical stage by 1991, especiallyin coastal areas. The nutrient inflows fromrivers in an 11-country watershed and thecoastal pollutants had overfertilized thenorthwestern part of the sea to such an extentthat the plankton biomass increased15-fold—from 52 to more than 800 gramsper cubic meter en—increasing the frequencyof red tides. Decay of these planktoncauses oxygen depletion of shallowbottom waters every summer and fall (2).Increasing flows of pollutants and toxicsubstances—oil, detergents, chlorinated organiccompounds, heavy metals, and radioactivematerials—have suppressedother biota. Some have accumulated inpredatory fish to high levels; average DDTconcentrations in Black Sea fish, for example,reached 0.15 per million by the end ofthe 1980s (3).Withdrawals of freshwater for hydropower,industry, urban use, and inlandshipping waterways have increased salinityin the seas. This increase reduced productivity60 percent and anadromous fishcatches in the adjacent Sea of Azov 95 percentbetween 1950 and 1975 (4).The three most important causes of thedecline of the Black Sea ecosystem are increasesin:• Withdrawals of freshwater from the BlackSea watershed for irrigation and other consumptiveanthropogenic purposes, leadingto a 15 percent decline in runoff (projectedto increase to 25 percent) within thenext several decades (5).• The nutrients carried by river runoff:400,000 metric tons of nitrogen and 84,000metric tons of phosphorus (6), and• Toxic and pollutant inflows from upstreamactivities.In recent years, however, the volume ofnutrients from growing coastal communities'sewage is now comparable to thatfrom river runoff (7). Oil spills, pollution ofthe straits connecting the sea to the Mediterranean,and increased trawl fishing arealso contributors to this worsening situation.References and Notes1. Yu P. Zaitsev, G.P. Garkavaya, D. A.Nestcrova et al., "Contemporary State ofthe North-Western Part of the Black SeaEcosystem," in Contemporary State of theBlack Sea Ecosystem (Nauka PublishingHouse, Moscow, 1987), pp. 216-230, citedin A.F. Mandych, A.V. Drozdov, and S.I.Shapprenko, The Black Sea: The ContemporaryEcological State of the Coastal Water andCoasts within the Territory of the U.S.S.R.(U.S.S.R. Academy of Science, Institute ofGeography, Moscow, 1991.)2. M.E. Vonogradov and A.I. Simonov, BlackSea Ecosystem Changes," in Main Problemsof the World Ocean Research (Hydrometeoizdat,Leningrad, 1989), pp. 61-75, cited inA.F. Mandych, A.V. Drozdov, and S.I.Shaporenko, The Black Sea: The ContemporaryEcological State of the Coastal Water andCoasts within the Territory of the U.S.S.R.(U.S.S.R. Academy of Science, Institute ofGeography, Moscow), 1991.A.M. Bronfman and E.P. Khlebnikov, "TheAzov Sea: Reconstruction Basis" (Hydrometeoizdat,Leningrad, 1985), cited in A.F.Mandych, A.V. Drozdov, and S.I. Shaporenko,The Black Sea: The Contemporary EcologicalState of the Coastal Water and Coastswithin the Territory of the U.S.S.R. (U.S.S.R.Academy of Science, Institute of Geography,Moscow), 1991.Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspectsof Marine Pollution The State of the MarineEnvironment, Technical Annex 1 (UnitedNations Environment Programme, Nairobi,1990), p. 249.A.M. Bronfman and E.P. Khlebnikov, "TheAzov Sea: Reconstruction Basis" (Hydrometeoizdat,Leningrad, 1985).A.M. Bronfman, L.V. Vorob'eva, G.P. Garkavayaet al., "Main Features and Trendsof Anthropogenic Changes of the North-Western Black Sea Shelf's Ecosystem,"cited in A.F. Mandych, A.V. Drozdov, andS.I. Shaporenko, The Black Sea: The ContemporaryEcological State of the Coastal Waterand Coasts within the Territory of the U.S.S.R.(U.S.S.R. Academy of Science, Institute ofGeography, Moscow, 1991.)A.F. Mandych, A.V. Drozdov, and S.I.Shaporenko, The Black Sea: The ContemporaryEcological State of the Coastal Water andCoasts within the Territory of the U.S.S.R.(U.S.S.R. Academy of Science, Institute ofGeography, Moscow, 1991.)Cities and IndustryThroughout history, people settled near water fortransportation and for domestic and industrial use. Solong as riverfront and coastal populations remainedsmall, coastal habitats could absorb human wastes.But, many of the world's largest cities and industrialcenters are along coasts or on rivers with direct accessto the coast. By the turn of the century, more than onefifth of the world's population—1 billion people—willlive in coastal cities. (See Chapter 23, "Freshwater,"Table 23.1.) This concentration of people and industryplus the lack of adequate waste disposal has degradedcoastal waters.A recent study of 42 rivers around the world found asignificant correlation between a watershed's humanpopulation density and the amount of nitrogen dischargedat the mouth of the river into a coastal ecosystem(86). (See Conditions and Trends, and Figure 12.1.)Thus, the increase in a watershed's population—withoutconcurrent controls on wastes—may be the singlemost important factor in coastal pollution. Most of theworld's population lives in watersheds.Air PollutionAnother newly recognized source of coastal pollutantsis deposition of airborne pollutants. For example, atmosphericdeposition contributes an estimated 413,000of the 940,000 metric tons of nitrogen entering the BalticSea each year; it is second only to river sources, at449,000 metric tons (87). Atmospheric deposition of nitrogenfrom distant power-generating plants, industrialfacilities, and agricultural activities may accountfor nearly 40 percent of the total nitrogen inputs intothe Chesapeake Bay (88). Nearly all the lead, cadmium,copper, iron, and zinc that enter the oceans come fromthe atmosphere (89).Marine pollution from atmospheric deposition canonly be reduced at the source and is not often associatedwith cleaning up coastal waters. For example, inthe United States, the phase-out of lead in gasoline duringthe 1970s contributed to decreased lead levels inmussels and oysters (90).VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL WATERS TOPOLLUTIONNumerous factors determine the sensitivity of estuariesand bays to pollutants. In general, estuaries with asmall volume and little tidal flushing and freshwaterinflow trap sediments and pollutants, and those withlarge volumes and river discharges transport sedimentsinto coastal waters and dilute the pollutants (91).The likelihood of estuarine waters concentrating pollutantsalso depends on the size and configuration of theadjacent watershed (92).186World Resources 1992-93

Oceans and Coasts 12Large watersheds often generate large riverflowswith the potential for transporting great volumes ofsediment, toxins, and nutrients into coastal waters. Forexample, the Mississippi River, whose total drainagearea measures 2.9 million square kilometers, averagesa daily freshwater discharge of 572,900 cubic feet persecond and an estimated 463,782 metric tons of nitrogenannually (93).Coastal areas fed by large watersheds are generallyflushed out more quickly. Although these areas can beheavily polluted (many are among the most pollutedareas in the world), they are easier to clean up once thesources of pollution are eliminated.Consequently, estuaries and bays with high waterturnover rates are considered less susceptible to heavypollution than enclosed waters with low inflow andoutflow, such as the Mediterranean Sea or the ChesapeakeBay. Both are highly vulnerable to pollution notonly because they can be quickly degraded but also becausethey take a long time to recover after pollutioncontrols are imposed. (See Box 12.3.)COORDINATING POLLUTION CONTROLManagement of human activities in coastal areas andwatersheds remains fragmented among many governmentunits. Even within a single country, lack of coordinationhas allowed, even promoted, activitiesdamaging to coastal resources. Controlling onshoreand atmospheric sources of marine pollution will requirenew approaches that reach further into eachnation's economy (94) than merely banning dumpingfrom ships.Linking the Land and the WaterGovernments and agencies responsible for economicdevelopment seldom consider the impacts of watershedsettlements on coastal resources (95). For example,only recently has the World Bank considered the offshoreeffects of its dam construction projects; it had focusedon impacts only in the immediate area of constructionand on reservoir flooding (96). Part of the reasonis that the economic consequences of coastal degradationare considered too speculative to be included inthe cost-benefit analysis of dam construction.Even when agencies do evaluate the coastal impactsof inland activities, the impacts are considered secondary.In the United States, when coastal resource agenciesare given the opportunity to review proposeddams and other water management projects, they canonly make recommendations, which are often ignored(97). For example, fish and wildlife agencies responsiblefor anadromous salmon populations in the ColumbiaRiver have limited influence over the operation ofthe dam turbines that kill more than 90 percent of thesalmon smolts migrating downstream to the ocean (98).In Ecuador, a major concern is construction of highlanddams funded partly by the Inter-American DevelopmentBank, over which the coastal conservationagencies have no control (99).Further, national government plans and decisionsare often not implemented or are ignored by local governmentsand citizens, who simply do not understandthe situation.UNEP has drawn up a set of guidelines on how nationsmight address land-based marine pollutionwithin their boundaries and what responsibilities theyhave to other nations. (See Table 12.4.)CASE STUDIES OF WATERSHED/COASTALMANAGEMENTThe following case studies describe efforts to reducecoastal pollution from watershed sources at three geographicscales and levels of political complexity—local, interstate, and international. How can groupswith diverse interests, including recreation, tourism,fishing, industry, agriculture, local government, andboth upstream and downstream states or nations bebrought together to reduce coastal pollution? This isthe key issue. In all watersheds, the classic upstreamdownstreamsituation exists in which upstream interestscan extract or pollute water to the detriment ofdownstream users unless they are constrained by ahigher government power or a negotiated agreement.Internationally, the issue of watershed pollution followswater resource allocation, one of the oldestresource issues that necessity forces countries to consider.Formal mechanisms to allocate water use or controlpollution include the Nile Water Agreement, theGreat Lakes water quality agreements, the Indo-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission, and the InternationalCommission for the Protection of the RhineAgainst Pollution. An analysis of international watershedagreements found that success is more likelywhen all parties perceive the problem as serious, thecountries or states are of relatively equal strength andshare a history of cooperation, a favorable scientificand legal framework exists, and an outside mediator(e.g., a U.N. agency or another nation) can help facilitatean agreement (100).The first case study describes a campaign sponsoredby an aid agency to build local support for watershedcleanup on the resort island of Phuket, Thailand. BecauseThailand's major source of foreign earnings istourism, maintaining an attractive coast offered cleareconomic benefits, and the federal government agreedto enforce pollution standards upland. Local scientists,fishermen, scuba dive operators, government officials,hotel operators, and upland plantation owners workedout a plan.The second case study is of a more complex politicalsituation in which six states and the District of Columbiacontributed pollutants to the largest U.S. estuary,the Chesapeake Bay. Following a model program ofscientific study, citizen involvement, state negotiations,and federal support, local developers are slowingprogress by their resistance to changes in land use.The third case study looks at the Mediterranean, anenclosed sea bordered by 18 nations. Unlike watershedsbounded by states or provinces in which a federalgovernment may set emission standards or settledisputes, the Mediterranean is bounded by sovereignnations. They have negotiated a cooperative agree-World Resources 1992-93187

12 Oceans and CoastsTable 12.4 The Montreal Guidelines onLand-Based PollutionThe United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) drew up a set of guidelinesin 1985 to help nations develop international agreements and national legislationto protect the marine environment against pollution from land-basedsources. The guidelines are intended as a checklist of basic provisionsrather than a model agreement, from which nations might select oradapt elements to suit their specific needs.The guidelines declare that nations have a responsibility to:• Prevent, reduce and control marine pollution and to ensure that dischargesfrom land-based sources do not pollute the marine environment beyondtheir national jurisdictions.• Cooperate internationally, regionally and locally to limit pollution from landbasedsources. Noncoastal nations should control release of pollutants intheir territories that reach the seas; all nations should limit pollution ofshared watercourses that drain into the sea.• Share scientific data and technology related to pollution control. Developedcountries should provide technical, scientific, and educational assistanceto developing countries for pollution control.• Prevent or manage pollution emergencies and inform other nations aboutreleases of pollutants from land-based sources.• Develop comprehensive environmental management plans to prevent,reduce, and control pollution from land-based sources. Nations have the right toset national pollution control standards more stringent than internationalstandards.• Grant foreign nationals equal access to their courts to seek compensation fordamages from marine pollution.Specific pollution control strategies include:• Setting pollution limits to achieve certain marine environmental qualitystandards. These standards may be determined by a desired level of intendeduse, by existing ambient pollution levels, by dilution rates for a specificsite, or by loading allocations for an entire receiving environment rather thana specific site.• Setting emission or technology-based standards. Technology-basedstandards include best practicable technology, best available technology,discharge as low as reasonably achievable, and zero discharge.• Managing human activities to limit use of the marine environment or tocontrol siting of activities affecting the marine environment.The guidelines suggest that nations select strategies and control instrumentsappropriate to their socio-economic status and the availability of pollution controlinfrastructure. Strategy selection will depend on:• Economic conditions such as a country's over-all economic health,availability of public finance, availability of external finance, viabilityof implementing the polluter pays principle.• Scientific/technical resources such as availabilty of data on the marineenvironment, knowledge of waste stream constituents and control technologies,ability to monitor pollution, engineering infrastructure, knowledgeof pollution trends.• Social/political resources such as quality of administrative infrastructure,use made of the marine environment, and public awareness of environmentalproblems.Sources:1. Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Pollution, TechnicalAnnexes to the Reporton the State of the Marine Environment, UNEPRegional Seas Reports and Studies No. 114/2 (United NationsEnvironment Programme, Nairobi, 1990), pp. 359-367.2. Peter H. Sand, Marine Environment Law in the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (Tycooly Publishing, London, 1988), pp. 235-254.ment under a UNEP-sponsored Regional Seas Programme,but inspection and enforcement are muchweaker than in a federal system.Phuket Province, ThailandRecent efforts to combat the deteriorating coastal watersof Thailand began locally with the Patong, Karon,and Kata watersheds on Phuket Island (101). (See Figure12.5.)Phuket's coral reefs and beaches are key to nationalefforts to build and increase the tourist industry(Thailand's leading source of foreign income). But theisland's explosive growth of hotels and resortsbrought overuse of the reefs and sewage and sedimentpollution of nearshore waters. These threats to thereefs aggravated the damage from the increased sedimentationthat was caused by converting more thanone half the island's native forests into rubber and coconutplantations (102).The Coastal Resources Management Project (inwhich the Office of the National Environment Boardof Thailand, the Phuket Marine Biological Center, theUniversity of Rhode Island, and the U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment participated) met with localscientists, fishermen, scuba dive operators, governmentofficials, hotel operators, and upland landownersto develop a consensus that their economic prosperitydepended on substainable use of the coast (103). In1991, the project issued a detailed action plan for threewatersheds, which espoused several measures to protectwater quality:• Modification of environmental assessment of new developmentin the three target watersheds to considerimpacts on the reefs,• Protection of streambanks by developers,• Protection of bottomlands from filling,• Institution of maximum density limits,• Restoration of natural vegetation on public lands illegallyconverted to coconut plantations, and• Establishment of cooperative water-quality monitoringprograms.None of these actions required legislation (104).Critical to success of the plan is the involvement ofcitizens, businesses, and government. To implementsuccessful resource management projects in otherthreatened coastal zones, the plan calls for citizen accessto information on local waters and on relevantgovernment decisions. Instead of applying nationalpolicy locally, the Phuket Island project developed itsown local policy (105). But as the plan acknowledges, effectiveimplementation requires both political will andfunding (106).The Chesapeake BayChesapeake Bay planners followed what many considera model process. The U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency spent millions of dollars and seven yearsstudying the bay's ecology and hydrology and tracingpollution sources. Some pollutants, it was found, originatedin Pennsylvania and New York—states that arein the bay's 165,760-square-kilometer watershed butthat do not border on the bay. Public education programswere launched, and state governments approvedan agreement on general goals. (See Figure 12.6.)The Chesapeake Bay study was one of the first todocument the coastal pollutants from upstreamsources; three rivers carried 78 percent of the nitrogenand 70 percent of the phosphorus entering the bay(107). Most of the phosphorus came from point sources,primarily sewage treatment plants, and most of the ni-188World Resources 1992-93

Oceans and Coasts 12Figure 12.5 Watershed and Coral Reefs ofSouthwestern Phuket IslandAndaman ., ,Sea Malaysiaon upstream property owners to pay for building settlingponds and drainage systems to clean runoff beforeit reaches rivers and bays (112).Since 1987, nitrogen and phosphorus from nonpointsources have decreased an estimated 7 percent, but goalsfor the year 2000 are unlikely to be met if current trendscontinue (113). A1988 report on anticipated populationgrowth and development in the Chesapeake Bay watershedto the year 2020 concluded that current developmentplanning mechanisms were not preventing scattered,unplanned development that generates larger amountsof pollutants, additional expense, and more waste (114).After a decade of government research and deliberation,citizens' meetings, and newspaper and magazinearticles, the Chesapeake Bay region has gone far inovercoming jurisdictional division. Both governmentpolicy and programs recognize that restoration ofwater quality depends on changing behavior in thewatershed. But it is not yet certain whether upstreamlandowners and governments are willing to restorethe bay by restricting their own activities when downstreamneighbors pay for the impacts of those activities.Planners are now recognizing that present effortswill not reverse degradation of the bay. Restoringwater quality depends on withdrawing subsidies forurban sprawl (115) and preventing rather than regulatingpollution (116).Figure 12.6 Watershed of Chesapeake BaySource: Adapted from Coastal Resources Management Project, WhatFuture for Phuket? (University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, February1991), and Michele H. Lemay and Hansa Chansang, Coral Reef ProtectionStrategy for Phuket and Surrounding Islands (Thailand CoastalResources Management Project, Bangkok, 1989).trogen was from nonpoint sources, such as agriculturallands, of which some 45,000 square kilometers liein the bay watershed (108).In response to this information, the Chesapeake BayProgram proposed policies regarding upstream pollution.Among other points, the states agreed to a 40 percentreduction in the amounts of nitrogen and phosphorusreaching the bay by the year 2000 (109). Thisgoal has been pursued largely through subsidies forimproved agricultural practices, reduction of urbanrunoff, and treatment of sewage (110). Several states,for example, have provided millions of dollars inmatching funds for measures that reduce the amountsof runoff pollutants from feedlots and croplands, includingno-till and low-till techniques. National legislationpassed in 1985 will also reduce runoff through thewithdrawal of subsidies for crops planted on highlyerodibleland (ill).To meet federal requirements for stormwater runofftreatment, several communties instituted a "rain tax"1. Susquehanna2. Potomac3. Patuxent4. Rappahannock5. York6. JamesChesapeakeBayAtlanticOceanSource: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Chesapeake Bay Program:Findings and Recommendations (EPA, Philadelphia, 1983), p. 6.World Resources 1992-93189

12 Oceans and CoastsFigure 12.7 Watershed of the Mediterranean SeaSource: United Nations Enviroment Programme (UNEP), State of the Mediterranean Marine Environment (UNEP, Athens, 1989), pp. 4 and 195.The MediterraneanThe Mediterranean Sea, covering 2.5 million squarekilometers and nearly 400 times larger than the ChesapeakeBay, is the subject of the oldest and most developedof the UNEP's 10 Regional Seas Programmes (117).With the 1975 adoption of the Mediterranean ActionPlan (MAP), the 18 countries bordering the MediterraneanSea initiated UNEP's regional approach to marinepollution and resource problems (118).While newer Regional Seas Programmes are launchingstudies and agreeing to collaborate on oil spillcleanups, the Mediterranean program is trying a comprehensiveapproach to land-based watershed pollution.MAP studies suggest that at least one half thenutrient, mercury, chrome, lead, zinc, pesticide, and radioactivepollutants entering the Mediterranean Seacome from rivers draining areas outside the immediatecoastal zone (119). (See Figure 12.7.) The weakness oftides in the Mediterranean Sea reduces flushing ofcoastal waters, worsening pollution (120).The marine resources and environment of the regionhave suffered great damage (121). Industrial, domestic,and agricultural pollutants significantly degradedwater quality in 20 of the 29 drainage basins discharginginto the Mediterranean, causing massive algalblooms in some areas (122). In 1988, pathogens measuredat 25 percent of sampled beaches in France,Greece, Italy, and Spain exceeded safe levels (123). Airbornecontaminants are also a problem; as much chromiumand mercury enter the sea from the atmosphereas from rivers (124).As the Blue Plan, part of the Mediterranean ActionPlan, makes clear, the future for the coastal waters ofthe Mediterranean looks bad (125). The urban populationof coastal Mediterranean areas is expected to increasefrom 81 million to as many as 170 million by2025 (126). Most of this growth will occur from Moroccoto Turkey, where the coastal population will triple;it will then account for more than one half thecoastal population of the Mediterranean (127). Addingto the situation is a doubling in the number of touristsin the region to about 260 million by 2025 (128).According to the Blue Plan, the fate of the Mediterraneanmarine environment depends principally onlanduse planning, urban management, and pollutionprevention (129). Yet the plan makes only general recommendationson how individual countries might addressthe discharge of industrial chemicals, soil erosion,nutrient and pesticide runoff, and coastal developmentwhile maintaining an economically competitiveposition in the region and globally.To offer more specific suggestions regarding pollutionproblems, in 1988, the World Bank and the EuropeanInvestment Bank produced an environmentprogram for the Mediterranean. It sets priorities for ac-190World Resources 1992-93

Oceans and Coasts 12tion and offers technical and financial support (130).The two major priorities are to minimize public healthrisks and ensure sustainable growth. The banks pointout the long-term economic effects of water contaminatedby hazardous substances, overuse of aquifers,and enviromental degradation on all the Mediterraneancountries. They recommend using economic incentivesor disincentives, such as pollution charges,taxes, and subsidies to encourage water resuse, conserveenergy, and prevent pollution (131). In additionto economic incentives, the banks encourage increasedenvironmental planning and management—especiallyregarding water use and hazardous waste disposal, appropriateland use, and preservation of environmentallysensitive areas (132). Noting that preventive programsare usually more economical than cleanupprograms, the banks will help Mediterranean countriesdesign and implement projects, strengthen orbuild institutions, give policy advice, and help mobilizefinancial resources (133).The conditions and Trends section was written by World ResourcesManaging Editor Mary Paden. Focus On Coastal Pollution waswritten by Michael Weber, a Washington D.C. marine consultant.Information on the Black Sea was provided by the Institute of Geography,Soviet Academy of Sciences. WBI Research Assistant DanielSeligman contributed to this Chapter.References and Notes1. Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspectsof the Marine Environment, The State of theMarine Environment (United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Nairobi, 1990), p. 1.2. Ibid.3. Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspectsof Marine Pollution, Technical Annexes to theReport on the State of the Marine Environment,No. 114/2 (United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Nairobi, 1990), p. 420.4. Ibid., p. 435.5. Op. dt. 3, p. 422.6. Op. dt. 1, p. 64.7. Theodore J. Smayda, "Novel and NuisancePhytoplankton Blooms in the Sea: Evidencefor a Global Epidemic," Proceedings of theFourth International Conference on Toxic MarinePhytoplankton, E. Graneli and L. Elder,eds. (Elsevier Science Publishing Co., NewYork, 1990), preprint, pp. 1-3.8. "State of Environmental Pollution," ChinaEnvironment News, No. 23 (June 1991), p. 7.9. Benjamin L. Peierls, Nina F. Caraco, MichaelL. Pace et at, "Human Influence onRiver Nitrogen," Nature, Vol. 350 (April 4,1991), p. 386.10. Michael L. Pace, Aquatic Ecologist, Instituteof Ecosystem Studies, The New York BotanicalGardens, Millbrook, August 1991 (personalcommunication).11. Don Hinrichsen, Our Common Seas: Coasts inCrisis (Earthscan Publications Ltd., London,1990), p. 118.12. Op. dt. 1, pp. 53-55.13. Stephen Olsen, Director, Coastal ResourcesCenter, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett,1991 (personal communication).14. Op. dt. 1, pp. 56-57.15. Carl Sinderman, "Pollution-Associated DiseaseConditions in Marine Fish" in MTS 90:Science and Technology for a New Oceans Decade,proceedings from the 1990 MarineTechnology Society (MTS) Conference(MTS, Washington, D.C, 1990), pp. 137-138.16. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA), Coastal EnvironmentalQuality in the United States, 1990: ChemicalContamination in Sediment and Tissues(NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce,Washington, D.C, 1990), p. 9.17. Op. dt. 3, p. 470.18. Op. dt. 1, p. 37.19. Arthur L. Dahl, Deputy to the Director,Oceans and Coastal Areas/Programme ActivityCentre, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme Regional Seas Programme, Nairobi,1991 (personal communication).20. Delegation of the United States to the SecondSession of the Preparatory Committeefor the United Nations Conference on Environmentand Development, "Living MarineResources: Background Paper for the U.S.Response to the 1991 Geneva Prep Com,"Washington, D.C, March 1991, p. 22.21. Philip Shabecoff, "Pollution Is Blamed forKilling Whales in the St. Lawrence," NewYork Times (January 12,1988), p. Cl.22. Alan Cowell, "A Poisoned Season: DeadDolphins, Abused Pups," New York Times(September 4,1991), p. A4.23. Op. dt. 3, p. 488.24. Op. dt. 16, pp. 14-16.25. Op. dt. 3, p. 473.26. Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), The State of Food andAgriculture 1984 (FAO, Rome, 1985), p. 63.27. Op. dt. 1, pp. 58-62.28. Parviz S. Towfighi, Chief, Inter-Agency Affairs,United Nations Centre for Human Settlements(HABITAT), "Distribution andTrends of Growth of Urban Population inUrban Agglomerations on Sea/Ocean CoastAreas," (HABITAT, Nairobi, February1991), Tables 1 and 2.29. Ralph W. Tiner, Jr. Wetlands of the UnitedStates: Current Status and Recent Trends (U.S.Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, D.C.1984), p. 36.30. Ralph W. Tiner, "Recent Changes in EstuarineWetlands of the Coterminous UnitedStates," in H. Suzanne Bolton, ed., CoastalWetlands (American Society of Civil Engineers,Long Beach, California, 1991), p. 100.31. The World Bank and European InvestmentBank, The Environmental Program for the Mediterranean:Preserving a Shared Heritage andManaging a Common Resource (The WorldBank, Washington, D.C. 1990), p. 23.32. Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), Committee on Fisheries,"Environment and Sustainability inFisheries," FAO, Rome, February 1991, p. 7.33. James R. Chambers, "Coastal Degradationand Fish Population Losses," in Stemmingthe Tide of Habitat Loss: Conservation ofCoastal Fish Habitat (National Coalition forMarine Conservation, Savannah, Georgia,in press).34. National Science Foundation, U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency, and NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Workshop on Coral Bleaching, Coral Reef Ecosystemsand Global Change: Report of Proceedings(University of Maryland, College Park,Maryland, 1991), p. 1-7.35. Leslie Roberts, "Greenhouse Role in ReefStress Unproven," Science, Vol. 253 Quly 19,1991), pp. 258-259.36. Thomas J. Goreau, "Written Statement tothe UNCED Biodiversity Working Group,"Global Coral Reef Alliance, (Chappaqua,New York, 1991), pp. 1-2.37. John Hardy and Hermann Gucinski, "StratosphericOzone Depletion: Implications forMarine Ecosystems," Oceanography (November1989), pp. 18-19.38. John Hardy, "Where the Sea Meets theSky," Natural History (May 1991), pp. 59-65.39. John Hardy, Associate Professor, HuxleyCollege of Environmental Studies, WesternWashington University, Bellingham, Washington,1991 (personal communication).40. Adele Crispoldi, Fishery Statistician, FisheryInformation, Data and Statistics Service,Fisheries Department, Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations,Rome, October 3,1991 (personal communication).41. Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), "Recent Developmentsin World Fisheries," (FAO, Rome,April 1991), p. 1.42. Ibid.43. Adele Crispoldi, Fishery Statistician, FisheryInformation, Data and Statistics Service,Fisheries Department, Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations,Rome, 1991 (personal communication).44. Massachusetts Offshore Groundfish TaskForce, New England Groundfish in Crisis—Again (Executive Office of EnvironmentalAffairs, Boston, 1990), pp. iii-iv.45. Op. dt. 32, p. 1.46. Op. dt. 32, p. 12.47. Op. dt. 32, p. 13.48. Op. dt. 32, p. 13.49. United Nations (U.N.) General Assembly,"Protection of Oceans, All Kinds of Seas IncludingEnclosed and Semi-Enclosed Seas,Coastal Areas and the Protection, RationalUse and Development of Their Living Resources,"(U.N., New York, July 2,1991),p. 2.50. Op. dt. 11, pp. 26,47-48, and 61.51. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA), Estuaries of the UnitedStates: Vital Statistics of a National ResourceBase (NOAA, Washington, D.C, 1990), pp.10-12.52. Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)and Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF), PoisonRunoff in the Harrisburg Region: Stemmingthe Flow (NRDC Washington D.C, and CBF,Annapolis, 1990), p. 1.53. United Nations Environmental Programme(UNEP) State of the Mediterranean Marine En-World Resources 1992-93191

12 Oceans and Coastsvironment, (UNEP, Athens, 1989), Table 31,p. 168.54. Robert Repetto, Promoting EnvironmentallySound Economic Progress: What the North CanDo (World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., April 1990), p. 10.55. Gregor Hodgson and John A. Dixon, LoggingVersus Fisheries and Tourism in Palawan:An Environmental and Economic Analysis(East-West Environment and Policy Institute,Honolulu, 1988), Table 12, page 58.56. Clifton Curtis, "Decisions of the ContractingParties to the London Dumping Conventionat Their 13th Consultative Meeting (29 October-2November 1990)," memorandum toU.S. colleagues and others (United Nations,Economic Commission for Latin America,Santiago, Chile, November 1990), p. 1.57. Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspectsof Marine Pollution The State of the MarineEnvironment (United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Nairobi, 1990), p. 12.58. Rotterdam Municipal Port Management,"Rotterdam and Chemicals ManufacturersAssociation Conclude Environmental Agreement,"press release, August 21,1991.59. Manuwadi Hungspreugs, "Heavy Metalsand Other Non-Oil Pollutants in SoutheastAsia," Ambio, Vol. 17, No. 3 (1988), p. 179.60. Chesapeake Executive Council, The SecondProgress Report under the 1987 Chesapeake BayAgreement (U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C., 1989), pp. 12-15.61. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA), Coastal EnvironmentalQuality in the United States, 1990 (NOAA,Rockville, Maryland, 1990), p. 14.62. Op. tit.55, p. 30.63. Op. cit. 55, p. 33-34.64. Op. cit. 55, p. 37.65. Op. cit. 55, p. 41.66. Op. cit. 55, p. 64.67. Op. cit. 57, p. 20.68. Stephen Crutchfield, "Controlling Farm Pollutionof Coastal Waters," Agricultural Outlook(U.S. Department of Agriculture,Economic Research Service, Washington,D.C., May 1988), p. 7.69. National Research Council, Coastal ResourceDevelopment and Management Needs of DevelopingCountries (National Academy Press,Washington, D.C., 1982), p. 58.70. Op. cit. 57, p. 20.71. Op. cit. 68.72. Anthony S. Pait, Daniel R.G. Farrow, JamisonA. Lowe, etal., Agricultural Pesticide Usein Estuarine Drainage Areas: A PreliminarySummary for Selected Pesticides (National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration,Rockville, Maryland 1989), p. 8 and Table 3,pp. 28-29.73. Alan H. Trim, "Acute Toxicity of EmulsifiableConcentrations of Three InsecticidesCommonly Found in Nonpoint Source Runoffinto Estuarine Waters to the Mummichog,Fundulus heteroclitus," Bulletin ofEnvironmental Contamination and Toxicolology,Vol. 38 (1987), p. 681.74. Op. cit. 72, p. 11.75. Jack I. Lowe, "Mirex, Fire Ants, and Estuaries,"Proceedings of the Workshop on Agrichemicalsand Estuarine Productivity (NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington, D.C., 1982), pp. 65-66.76. Stephen Olsen, Lynne Zeitlin Hale, RandomDuBois, et al., "Integrated Resources Managementfor Coastal Environments in theAsia Near-East Region"(Coastal ResourcesCenter, University of Rhode Island), 1989,p. 17.77. Committee on Evaluation of the Safety ofFishery Products, Seafood Safety (NationalAcademy Press, Washington, D.C., 1991),pp. 4-5.78. John A. Dixon, Lee M. Talbot, and Guy ].-M. Le Moigne, Dams and the Environment:Considerations in World Bank Projects (TheWorld Bank, Washington, D.C., 1989), pp.18-19.79. Michael A. Rozengurt, "Strategy and Ecologicaland Societal Results of Extensive ResourcesDevelopment in the South of theUSSR," in Symposium Proceedings: SovietUnion in the Year 2010 (Georgetown University,Washington, D.C., 1991), pp. 127-128.80. Ibid., pp. 129-131.81. International Union for the Conservation ofNature and Natural Resources, Commissionon Ecology, Working Group on MangroveEcosystems, with United Nations EnvironmentProgramme and World Wildlife Fund,"Global Status of Mangrove Ecosystems,"The Environmentalist, Vol. 3, Supplement 3(1983), pp. 29-30.82. Brent Blackwelder and Peter Carlson, Disastersin International Water Development (EnvironmentalPolicy Institute, Washington,D.C., 1986), p. 10.83. Frederic H. Nichols, James E. Cloern, SamuelO. Luoma et al., "The Modification of anEstuary," Science, Vol. 231 (February 7,1986), Figure 5, p. 570.84. Donald E. Stevens, David W. Kohlhurst,Lee W. Miller etal., "The Decline of StripedBass in the Sacramento—San Joaquin Estuary,California," Transactions of the AmericanFish Society, Vol. 114 (1985), cited in JamesR. Chambers, "Coastal Degradation andFish Population Losses," paper presented atthe National Symposium on Fish HabitatConservation (National Coalition for MarineConservation, Baltimore, March 1991).85. Louisiana Wetland Protection Panel, SavingLouisiana's Coastal Wetlands: The Need for aLong-Term Plan of Action (U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency, Washington, D.C.,1987), p. 9.86. Benjamin L. Peierls, Nina F. Caraco, MichaelL. Pace et al., "Human Influence onRiver Nitrogen," Nature, Vol. 350 (April 4,1991), pp. 386-387.87. Bertil Haegerhaell, "Coastal Seas DamagedWorldwide by Excess Nutrients," Acid Magazine(Swedish Environmental ProtectionAgency, Solna, June 1990), p. 18.88. Stuart Lehman, "Air Pollution," in The ChesapeakeCrisis: Turning the Tide, (ChesapeakeBay Foundation, Annapolis, Maryland,1990), p. 23.89. Op. cit. 57, p. 36.90. Op. cit. 61, pp. 14-16.91. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA), Estuaries of the UnitedStates (NOAA, Rockville, Maryland, 1990),p. 53.92. Ibid., pp. 5-6.93. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationand U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, Strategic Assessment of Near CoastalWaters: Susceptibility and Status of Gulf ofMexico Estuaries to Nutrient Discharges (Departmentof Commerce, Washington, D.C.,1989), p. 26.94. Op. cit. 54.95. Op. cit. 76, p. 19.96. Op. cit. 78, p. 10.97. Op. cit. 33.98. Hal Weeks, Endangered and ThreatenedFish Program Leader, Oregon Departmentof Fish and Wildlife, 1991 (personal communication).99. Op. cit. 13.100. World Resources Institute and InternationalInstitute for Environment and Development,World Resources 1987 (Basic Books,New York, 1987), pp. 181-189.101. Coastal Resources Management Project,What Future for Phuket? (University ofRhode Island, Narragansett, February 1991),p. 6.102. Ibid., p. 39.103. Ibid., pp. 6,18 and 19.104. Ibid., pp. 24,34, and 49.105. Ibid., pp. 56-57.106. Ibid., pp. 50-51.107. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), Chesapeake Bay Program: Findings andRecommendations (EPA, Philadelphia, 1983),p. 30.108. Patrick Gardner, "Agriculture and the Bay,"in The Chesapeake Crisis: Turning the Tide,(Chesapeake Bay Foundation, Annapolis,Maryland, 1990), p. 10.109. Op. cit. 60, p. 12.110. Op. cit. 60, pp. 14-19.111. Op. cit. 60, pp. 20-22.112. D'Vera Cohn, "New Law Tackles RampantPollution Source—Rain," Washington Post,October 14,1991, p. 1.113. Op. cit. 60, p. 20.114. Year 2020 Panel, "Population Growth andDevelopment in the Chesapeake Bay Watershedto the Year 2020: Summary," report ofthe Year 2020 panel to the Chesapeake ExecutiveCouncil (Chesapeake Bay Commission,Annapolis, Maryland, December1988), pp. 1-2.115. Ibid., p. 1.116. Alliance for the Chesapeake Bay, "PollutionPrevention Strategies to Get Greater Emphasiswithin Bay Program," Bay Journal, Vol. 1,No. 4 (June 1991), p. 8.117. Regional Seas programmes have been developedfor the following areas: Mediterranean,Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, Westand Central African, Southeast Pacific, RedSea and Gulf of Aden, Wider Caribbean,East African, South Pacific, East Asian, andSouth Asian regions. United Nations (U.N.)Secretariat, Office of Ocean Affairs and thelaw of the Sea, "International Institutionsand Legal Instruments" (U.N., New York,1991), pp. 28-33.118. The World Bank and European InvestmentBank, The Environment Program for the Mediterranean(World Bank, Washington, D.C.,1990), p. 13.119. Op. cit. 53.120. Michel Grenon and Michel Batisse, eds., Futuresfor the Mediterranean Basin: The BluePlan (Oxford University Press, New York,1989), p. 1.121. The World Bank and European InvestmentBank, The Environmental Program for the Mediterranean:Preserving a Shared Heritage andManaging a Common Resource (World Bank,Washington, D.C., 1990), pp. 9-11.122. Ibid., pp. 20 and 27.123. Ibid., p. 2.124. Op. cit. 118, p. 31.125. Op. cit. 120, pp. 231-249.126. Michel Batisse, "Probing the Future of theMediterranean Basin," Environment, Vol. 32,No. 5 (1990), p. 29.127. Ibid., p. 29.128. Op. cit. 121, p. 3.129. Op. cit. 120, p. viii.130. Op. cit. 118, p. vii.131. Op. cit. 118, pp. 51-54.132. Op. cit. 118, pp. 51-54.133. Op. cit. 118, p. 59.192World Resources 1992-93

13. Atmosphere andClimateSeen from orbit, the Earth's atmosphere is a thin andseemingly fragile skin of air protecting the planet fromthe harshness of space. From the ground, this perspectiveis harder to appreciate. We take for granted thatthe atmosphere will protect us from the sun's mostharmful rays, provide a moderate and stable climate,and renew and cleanse itself to provide fresh air tobreathe. The persistent and growing problem of airpollution illustrates the degree to which human activitiesand practices have overwhelmed such natural processes.Likewise, the Antarctic ozone hole and newevidence that the degradation of the Earth's protectiveozone layer is accelerating demonstrate that air pollutioncan have global effects.The most threatening effect of global air pollutionwould be to alter the Earth's climate. Modern humansocieties have experienced moderate and stable climates,but earlier human societies experienced a glacialperiod or ice age extending until about 10,000years ago. In still earlier periods, the Earth was ice-freeand far warmer than today. These variations in climatewere natural and gradual, but human activity is alteringthe composition of the atmosphere in ways thatcould bring rapid changes in climate.Just how soon—and how much—these atmosphericalterations will translate into warmer global temperaturesremains uncertain. Nonetheless, concern aboutthe potential for global warming has stimulated effortsto impose international limits on emissions of greenhousegases. Negotiations for a Global Climate Conventionbegan early in 1991 under the auspices of theUnited Nations General Assembly, in hopes of reachingagreement prior to the United Nations Conferenceon Environment and Development, to be held in thesummer of 1992.This chapter reports on past and current trends inthe major forms of atmospheric pollution and on therelative contributions of the countries of the world tothese emissions. It also reports on emissions of carbondioxide from industrial processes—principally thecombustion of fossil fuels—which is the largest singlesource of greenhouse gases and an appropriate targetfor initial efforts to limit emissions.World Resources 1992-93193

13 Atmosphere and ClimateCONDITIONS AND TRENDSThis section briefly reviews the sources, trends, effects,and possible solutions for a range of important urbanand regional air pollutants. It also considers indoor airpollution, a relatively new area of concern but onewith the potential to adversely affect much of theworld's population, particularly residents of developingcountries who cook and heat with "dirty" fuelssuch as coal, dung, or crop residues. (For a more extensivediscussion of the pollution problems facing thenewly democratic countries of Central Europe, seeChapter 5.) This section also reports on recent developmentsin global air pollution and the issues involvedin trying to negotiate a global climate convention.Global TrendsURBAN AIR POLLUTION: SOURCES, TRENDS,AND EFFECTSUrban areas have long been a primary locus of seriousair pollution because of the density of pollutionsources—industries, residences, and vehicles. Since the1970s, national air pollution policies have tended tofocus on the control of six of the most serious urbanpollutants: particulates (smoke and soot), sulfur dioxide(SO2), nitrogen oxides (NO X ), ozone (photochemicalsmog), carbon monoxide (CO), and lead. Becausethese substances have known health and environmentaleffects, most industrialized nations—and many developingnations—have set legal air quality standardsfor some or all of them.Particulates and Sulfur DioxideSuspended particulate matter and sulfur dioxide (SO2)are good general indicators of urban pollution levels.Together they constitute a major portion of the pollutantload in many cities and act both separately and inconcert to damage human health (l). Both SO2 and particulatematter can be potent respiratory irritants andcan impair lung function by constricting airways anddamaging lung tissue. Asthmatics and those sufferingfrom other respiratory ailments such as emphysemaare particularly susceptible (2) (3). As one of the principalelements in acid deposition, SO2 also has potentecological effects, including direct damage to plant foliageand indirect disruption of ecosystems throughacidification of soils and surface waters. (See RegionalAir Pollution, below.)Particulates include smoke, soot, dust, and liquiddroplets emitted from fuel combustion, industrial processes,agricultural practices, or a number of naturalsources (4). Condensation of gases such as SO2 and volatileorganic compounds (VOCs) is also a significantsource of particulates; roughly half of all humancausedparticulates arise from conversion of SO2 to sulfateparticles in the atmosphere (5). SO2 emissions arisepredominantly from the combustion of sulfur-containingfossil fuels—mostly coal—for electricity generationor residential heating. Metal smelting and some industrialprocesses also create significant SO2 emissions insome areas, as do diesel exhaust fumes in some cities.National trends in emissions and urban ambient concentrationsof SO2 and particulates are mixed. In general,Western industrialized countries have madesignificant progress since the 1970s in reducing urbanSO2 and particulates, as well as national emissions ofthese substances. On the other hand, many developingnations with expanding industrial sectors and growingurban vehicle populations have seen increases ineither SO2 or particulate levels or both (6).Coal washing, switching to a lower sulfur fuel, andthe application of pollution reduction technologiessuch as stack "scrubbers" have achieved impressive resultsin industrialized countries like Japan, where SO2emissions decreased nearly 40 percent between 1974and 1983 (7). The use of tall stacks has further reducedurban SO2 levels in industrialized countries by increasingthe dispersion of the exhaust gases at power generationfacilities and industrial sites, thus loweringpollutant concentrations nearby without decreasingoverall emissions (8). An unfortunate side effect of thispractice has been the long-range transport of theseemissions and their subsequent deposition in locationsfar from their source.Elevated levels of particulates and SO2 still plague alarge fraction of the world's urban residents. Actual exposurelevels vary considerably from city to city andfrom season to season, and data quantifying internationalurban pollution are seldom complete or timely.Nonetheless, the United Nations-sponsored Global EnvironmentalMonitoring System estimated in 1987 that70 percent of the world's urban population lived in citieswhere the level of suspended particulates exceededWorld Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, andsome two thirds of urban residents lived in citieswhere the ambient SO2 concentration was at or abovethe WHO limit (9).Smog and Its Precursors: Ozone, Nitrogen Oxides,and Organic CompoundsPhotochemical smog forms when nitrogen oxides(NO X ) produced during fuel combustion react withVOCs in the presence of sunlight. The resulting mix ofchemicals—containing more than 100 different compounds—isdominated by ozone. When formed atground level, ozone is a highly reactive gas toxic tomost living organisms. In the upper atmosphere, however,ozone absorbs harmful ultraviolet radiation. This"stratospheric" ozone layer is being damaged by chemicalattack from chlorofluorocarbons. The control ofsmog—ozone—is one of the most vexing problems inmodern pollution control, because smog formation isinfluenced by a complex interaction of pollutants,weather, and topography, and because smog precursors—NOX and VOCs—are produced by sources thatare difficult to control (10) (11) (12).Nitrogen oxides (NO and NO2) form when atmosphericoxygen and nitrogen, as well as the nitrogencontained in the fuel source, react at high temperatures.In industrialized countries, emission sources are194World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 13Box 13.1 Indoor Air PollutionThe problem of air pollution extends notjust to the macroscale—the urban, regional,and global levels—but to themicroscale as well. The indoor environmentprovides an intimate field of actionfor a host of airborne pollutants, from theexotic chemical effluent of modern technologyto the more traditional byproducts ofsmoking, cooking, and heating. In fact, itis becoming increasingly clear that whatwe breathe indoors, whether at home, inthe workplace, or in the car traveling betweenthe two, may pose a greater healthrisk than what we breathe outdoors d).This is true in both industrialized and developingcountries, although the sourcesand concentrations of pollutants in thetwo settings vary considerably (2).The health risks of indoor air pollutionare magnified because people the worldover spend 80-90 percent of their time indoors(3). A 1990 study by the U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency ranked indoorpollution at the top of a list of 18 sourcesof environmental health risk in terms ofthe number of cancers these contaminantswould cause in the general U.S. population(4). Some health researchers believethat indoor pollution may represent one ofthe top ten causes of death in the UnitedStates (5).In industrialized countries, exposure toindoor pollutants comes from a widerange of sources. Cigarettes, for instance,are potent emitters of carbon monoxide(CO), aldehydes, and a variety of carcinogens.Gas appliances and unvented keroseneheaters are a primary source ofindoor nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a respiratoryirritant. Building materials such asparticle board, plywood, and foam insulationgive off formaldehyde, a probable carcinogen.Moreover, the recent trendtoward energy efficiency has tended tomake houses more airtight, a factor thattends to concentrate these pollutants, makingthem more of a problem than theywere in the past (6). Common consumerproducts that give off volatile organic compoundsinclude dry-cleaned clothing,cleaning products, carpet adhesives, mothballs, aerosol products, and even typewritercorrection fluid. Finally, molds, bacteria,fungi, asbestos, and radon are alsoknown airborne contaminants in the homeand workplace (7) (8).In developing countries, indoor pollutantsderive mainly from the everyday activitiesof cooking and heating with coal orbiomass fuels—wood, crop wastes, ordung. The World Health Organization(WHO) estimates that approximately twothirds of the world's population, primarilyin rural areas, burn these traditional fuels,often in stoves with poor or no ventilation(9). Used in this way, biomass materialsand coal emit a complex brew of hundredsof toxic substances, including particulatescoated with a variety of organic compounds;NO2; CO; sulfur dioxide (SO2);and a number of aromatic hydrocarbons,many of which have been identified as carcinogenic(10). Poorly vented householdscan build up concentrations of these substancesthat sometimes exceed recommendedexposure levels by two or three ordersof magnitude (1 n. In a field study conductedby WHO in rural Kenya, averageparticulate levels in houses where woodor crop residues were used for cookingwere over 20 times higher than the WHOexposure guidelines; levels of aromatic hydrocarbonswere also very high 02).These extremely high exposure levelshave major health impacts, includingchronic lung and heart diseases, cancer,and acute respiratory infections, especiallyin children. An estimated 400-500 millionpeople in the developing world are subjectto such health effects, most of them women,infants, and the aged. Indeed, exposure toindoor fuel emissions is likely to be themost important occupational health hazardfor women in developing countries (13).Even in industrialized nations the healthconsequences of indoor air pollution arethought to be significant. For example, theNO2 levels produced by a kerosene heatercan cause respiratory problems in manyasthmatics (M). It is not surprising, therefore,that the economic impact associatedwith ill health caused by indoor pollutionis estimated in the tens of billions of dollarsper year in the United States alone (15).Despite this fact, exposure to indoor pollutantsis largely unregulated (lrt.Addressing indoor pollution will requireaction on a number of fronts. In industrializedcountries, homeowners willhave to pay closer attention to their totalindoor exposure, both by regulating pollutionsources and by increasing householdventilation to dilute unavoidable pollutants.Smoking outdoors (if at all), airingdry-cleaned clothing outside before wearing,minimizing aerosol spray use, adjustingstoves and heaters for properventilation, cleaning molds and fungi outof air conditioners and humidifiers, andchoosing carpeting and building materialswisely—are all ways in which the homeownercan reduce exposure (17) (18) (19).In developing countries, efforts mustfocus on converting to cleaner fuels andproperly vented stoves and heaters. In Chinesehouseholds, replacing coal with naturalgas in urban areas and biogas in ruralareas is a good example of this strategy.(Biogas is a mixture of gases—mostlymethane—that comes from the decompositionof household wastes and organic materialsin a special digester.) Over sixmillion biogas digesters were built byrural Chinese households in the 1970s andmore than 500,000 improved models werebuilt in the 1980s(20). Providing more efficientand better vented stoves, no matterwhat the fuel, has been a major focus of actionin rural India, Africa, and elsewherefor many years, both to address health concernsand the chronic fuel shortage inthese regions. Over 64 million efficientcookstoves have been distributed in theseareas since the early 1980s (21). Some observersargue that, given the limited fundsavailable for pollution control in developingnations, money spent on low-emissionstoves would yield greater benefits interms of improved human health thanfunds spent on expensive pollution controltechnology for large sources of outdoorpollution like power plants, althoughthe environmental benefits are clearly notas great (22).References and Notes1. Larry B. Stammer, "Indoor Air—HowClean Is It?" Washington Post (January 23,1990), p. A17.2. Global Environmental Monitoring System,United Nations Environment Programme,and World Health Organization, Assessmentof Urban Air Quality (United Nations,London, 1988), pp. 81-88.3. Ibid., p. 81.4. Jonathan Bor, "Indoor Air More PollutedThan Outdoor, EPA Finds," Baltimore Sun(Aprill6,1990), p. 1A.5. Op. cit. I.6. Op. rif. 2, pp. 81-83.7. D'Vera Cohn, "In Fight Against Pollution,the Frontier Moves Indoors," WashingtonPost (February 12, 1989), p. Al.8. Op. cit. 2, pp. 82-83.9. Op. cit. 2, p. 84.10. Op. cil. 2, p. 84.11. Op. cit. 2, pp. 86-87.12. World Health Organization (WHO) andUnited Nations Environment Programme,HF.AL (Human Exposure Assessment Location)Project: Indoor Air Pollution Study,Maragua Area, Kenya (WHO, Geneva,1987), pp. 18-19.13. Op. cit. 2, p. 88.14. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), Report To Congress on Indoor AirQuality, Volume 2: Assessment and Control ofIndoor Air Pollution (EPA, Washington,D.C., 1989), pp. 3-8.15. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), Report To Congress on Indoor AirQuality: Executive Summary and Recommendations(EPA, Washington,'D.C, 1989), p. 17.16. Op.cit.7.17. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), The Inside Story: A Guide to IndoorAir Quality (EPA, Washington, D.C., 1988),pp. 15-18.18. Op. cit. 15.19. Op. cit. 7.20. Kirk R. Smith, "Air Pollution: AssessingTotal Exposure in Developing Countries,"Environment, Vol. 30, No. 10 (December1988), pp. 16-20 and 28-35.21. Jamuna Ramakrishna, M.B. Durgaprasad,and Kirk R. Smith, "Cooking in India: TheImpact of Improved Stoves on Indoor AirQuality," Environment International, Vol. 15(1989), pp. 341-352.22. Op. cit. 20 pp. 28-29.World Resources 1992-93195

13 Atmosphere and Climateroughly evenly divided between vehicles and stationarysources such as power stations and industrial boilers,although vehicle emissions usually predominatein urban environments (13) (14). In terms of human exposureto NO X , indoor sources such as unvented heatingor cooking may be even more important thanoutside sources, especially in some developing countries(15). (See Box 13.1.)Sources of VOCs are many and varied: vehicles, refineries,gas stations, and solvent sources such as drycleaners, print shops, and house paints all contributeto the wide range of volatile compounds—mostly hydrocarbons—thatreact with NO X in the presence ofsunlight to yield smog (16).Photochemical smog is a widespread urban problem,especially in Europe, Japan, and North America,where precursor molecules are often abundant and ambientsummer ozone levels frequently exceed WHO exposurelimits for hours and sometimes days at a time.In 1988, for instance, nearly half of the U.S. populationlived in counties where the air did not meet the nationalozone standard (17).Cities in many developing countries also suffer fromhigh ozone levels, but the ozone risk often takes secondplace to the threat posed by other pollutants. Dataare not readily available to determine global trends inurban smog, but trends in NO X emissions show increasesin nearly every city monitored. Both NO X andVOC concentrations are likely to climb in the yearsahead as the vehicle populations in these cities continueto rise. Moreover, many of these cities are locatedin hot and sunny climates that favor ozone formation.As a result, the smog problem is likely to increase in severityin developing countries in the future (18).The health effects of ozone are varied and severe. Becauseit is a reactive oxidizing agent, ozone tends to attackcells and break down biological tissues. It can beparticularly damaging to lung tissue, even at low concentrations.A variety of symptoms ensue, includingstinging eyes, coughing and chest discomfort, increasedasthma attacks, and greater susceptibility to infection.Peroxy acetyl nitrate, another oxidant found insmog mixtures, produces or contributes to many of thesame symptoms (19) (20) (21).Ozone precursors also pose a threat to human healthand the environment. NO2 is a respiratory irritant thatcauses constriction of airways, reduced resistance to infection,and hypersensitivity to dust and pollen in asthmatics(22). VOCs can have a variety of effects dependingupon the compound, including eye irritation, respiratoryirritation, even cancer (23). Ozone is also a potentplant toxin, even at very low concentrations, and thereis evidence that SO2 and NO X work synergistically toincrease plant sensitivity to ozone leaf damage (24).Carbon MonoxideGlobal emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), createdmostly by the incomplete combustion of carbon-containingfuels, exceed those of all other urban air pollutantscombined. Although there are a variety ofhuman-induced CO sources, vehicle exhaust accountsfor nearly all of the CO emitted in many urban areas(25). (See Table 13.1.) Successful CO reduction strategiestherefore rely chiefly on auto emission controlssuch as catalytic converters, which change most of theCO to carbon dioxide (CO2) (26). Such controls havesubstantially lowered emissions and ambient CO concentrationsin cities in the industrialized world: inJapan, ambient CO levels fell approximately 50 percentbetween 1973 and 1984 (27), while in the UnitedStates CO levels fell 28 percent between 1980 and 1989,in spite of a 39 percent increase in vehicle-miles traveled(28). However, most of the developing world is experiencingincreases in CO levels as vehicle numbersand traffic congestion rise. Rough estimates by WHOindicate that unhealthy CO concentrations may existin approximately half of the world's cities (29).Table 13.1 Contribution of Road Transport to Air Pollution in Selected CitiesRegionYearTotal Pollutants From AllSources (thousandmetric tons)Percent Attributable to Road TransportCO HC NOx SOx Particulates TotalMexico CitySao PauloAnkaraManilaKuala LumpurSeoulHong KongAthensib}Gothenburg{b}LondonLos Angelesfb}MunichOsakaPhoenix19871981198719801987198719831987197619801978197619821974/5198219865,0273,1502,110690500435X2193941241,2004,698 {c}3,391 c2131411,240 {d}99969477939715X9796979999821008789837673829540X81899461509617646489 fa}447346607551706571646960772265931217X6251221124391980248622862 5760714679353544X5918507846 86XX5688877324 591 28Source: Asif Faiz, "Automotive Air Pollution: An Overview" (The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 12.Notes:a. Includes evaporation losses from storage and refueling.b. Percent shares apply to all transport. Motor vehicles account for 75-95 percent of the transport share.c. Excluding particulate matter.d. Includes 490,000 metric tons of dust from unpaved roads.X = not available.196Mforld Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 13Once inhaled, carbon monoxide binds to hemoglobin,interfering with oxygen transport by the blood.This can impair perception, slow reflexes, bring onheadaches, and cause drowsiness. Among those mostat risk from CO are pregnant women, infants, heart diseasepatients, and those with respiratory problems (30).Although CO is not thought to have any direct ill effectson the environment, it does contribute indirectlyto the formation of photochemical smog by reactingwith hydroxyl radicals in the atmosphere. Hydroxylradicals scavenge many other atmospheric pollutants,such as methane and other hydrocarbons, removingthem from further smog-forming reactions. By depletingthe population of hydroxyl radicals, CO increasesthe levels of other primary pollutants available forsmog production and contributes to the buildup ofmethane—a potent greenhouse gas—in the atmosphere(31).Lead and Other PollutantsAirborne lead is derived primarily from fuel additives,metal smelters, and battery manufacturing plants; butleaded gasoline is by far the greatest source of airbornelead exposure in the industrialized world (32). Direct inhalationof airborne lead particulates from auto exhaustprobably contributes only 1-2 percent of totalhuman lead intake, but secondary exposure (from ingestionand inhalation of lead that has fallen on dust,soil, food, and water) can contribute up to 50 percentof total lead intake (33).Lead exposure is cumulative and can result in a varietyof adverse health effects in adults (including circulatory,reproductive, nervous, and kidney damage)even at low blood concentrations (34) (35). Children, especiallyfetuses, are susceptible to even lower levels oflead and thus comprise the most vulnerable riskgroup, suffering reduced birth weight, impaired mentaland neurosensory development, and learning deficitsin school. There may be no minimum threshold forsafe exposure of children to lead (36). (See Chapter 6,"Population and Human Development.")Prospects for global reductions in lead emissions areone of the few bright spots in the overall air pollutionpicture—at least in the industrialized countries, whichhave taken steps to reduce lead emissions from bothstationary sources and vehicles. Reducing the permissiblelevel of lead in petrol has been the primary meansof reducing ambient lead concentrations (37). In theUnited States, the use of leaded fuel declined morethan 50 percent from 1976-80 as new cars requiring unleadedfuel reached the market. During this period,blood lead levels declined 37 percent, even though theaverage dietary lead intake remained unchanged (38).In spite of such progress, however, lead contaminationcontinues to be an urban pollution problem of considerabledimensions, with the air in as many as onethird of the world's cities exceeding the WHO leadstandard. Many of these cities are in developing countries,where automobile traffic chokes some urbanareas, lead levels in gasoline are often very high, andconversion to unleaded fuel is not yet under way (39).Besides lead, a host of other toxic substances adds tothe pollutant load in urban areas. These range from asbestosand heavy metals (such as cadmium, arsenic,manganese, nickel, and zinc), to a wide array of organiccompounds (such as benzene and other hydrocarbons,and aldehydes) (40). The dimensions of thetoxics problem are difficult to ascertain on a globalbasis because of the lack of air quality and emissionsdata, but the problem is known to be significant in theindustrialized world. For example, industry figuresshow that U.S. companies emitted at least 1.2 millionmetric tons of air toxics in 1987 (41). The U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency estimates that exposure tothese pollutants causes between 1,700 and 2,700 cancersper year (42). In response, recent U.S. clean air legislationincludes provisions to cut the emissions of nearly200 toxic substances by 90 percent within a decade (43).REGIONAL AIR POLLUTION: SOURCES,TRENDS, AND EFFECTSSince the late 1960s, when the concept of acid rain firstgained public attention, the regional aspects of pollutionhave come more sharply into focus as their visible tollhas mounted. From the dead and dying trees in Germany'sBlack Forest to the depleted red spruce stands onthe flanks of Mt. Mitchell in North Carolina, the effects oflong-range transport of pollutants have become abundantlyclear. Acid deposition and ground-level ozone arenow recognized as prime contributors to widespread forestand crop declines on two continents and adversehealth effects over extensive regions, with tangiblehuman, ecological, and economic costs.The abundant evidence that air pollutants do not respectpolitical boundaries has stimulated a serious responsein recent years among industrialized nations,sparking hopes that the atmospheric commons will atlast be seen as the vulnerable resource that it is. Thishope notwithstanding, most scientific projections indicatethat regional pollution effects will get much worsebefore they get better, both in extent and intensity, particularlyin view of development patterns and economic restraintsin developing regions and Central Europe.Acid DepositionBoth "wet" deposition—acid rain, snow, fog, andcloud vapors—and "dry" deposition—acidic particulatesand aerosols—are formed when large volumes ofSO2 and NOx are released from the combustion of fossilfuels. Stationary sources, such as coal-burningpower plants, ore smelters, and industrial boilers, areresponsible for nearly all human-caused SO2 emissionsand about 35 percent of human-caused NO Xemissions (44). Smokestacks up to 300 meters tall injectthese gases high into the atmosphere, where most areconverted to sulfate and nitrate particulates and distributeddownwind. If captured by prevailing winds,they may be transported as much as 1,000 kilometersbefore being deposited (45), though dry deposition usuallyoccurs closer to the emission source.Vehicle traffic is another major source of acid precursors,generating 30-50 percent of total NO X emissionsWorld Resources 1992-93197

13 Atmosphere and Climatein industrialized countries and many of the volatile organiccompounds (VOCs) that lead to ground-levelozone. Ozone, in addition to its direct adverse effects,is an important intermediary in the transformation ofSO2 and NO X to sulfuric and nitric acids (46).The phenomenon of acid deposition is largely associatedwith highly industrialized regions of Europe andNorth America, where sulfur deposition in the mostpolluted areas is more than 10 times higher than thenatural background rate (47). China—the third largestemitter of SO2 after the Soviet Union and the UnitedStates—has also begun to experience regional acid rainproblems in its southern provinces (48). More limitedincidents of acid deposition have been recorded inJapan, as well (49).Acid deposition can have severe effects on both terrestrialand aquatic ecosystems. Over time, as the soilloses its capacity to buffer the acid load, both soils andsurface waters can gradually acidify, disrupting thechemical and biological processes of the organismsthat live there. Sensitive aquatic species can declinerapidly as acidity disrupts their reproductive cycles. InNorway, for example, acidification of trout streams cutformerly stable brown trout populations in half by1978, and the remaining populations fell another 40percent by 1983 (50).The level of soil acidification has also reached alarminglevels in some locations. In the past 50 years, thesoils in many of Europe's forests have become 5-10times more acidic (51). This increased acidity can havepronounced effects on the nutrient balance available inthe soil by causing the accelerated leaching of essentialplant nutrients such as calcium, magnesium, and potassiumions. At the same time, higher soil acidityleads to increased levels of soluble aluminum, a planttoxin that damages fine roots and interferes with theuptake of remaining calcium and magnesium (52) (53).Excessive levels of nitrogen from acid deposition canalso overstimulate plant growth and exacerbate nutrientdeficiencies (54). Forests in Central Europe typicallyreceive four to eight times as much nitrogen throughacid deposition as they need for growth (55).Acid precipitation also causes direct damage tosome plant foliage, especially when it comes in theforms of fog and cloud water, which are, on average,about 10 times more acidic than acid rain. In NorthAmerica, researchers have found that acid fogs candamage or kill red spruce needles, and foliar damageis enhanced when ozone is also present. The high-elevationridgetops where red spruce grow may be coveredin highly acidic (pH as low as 2.2), high-ozoneclouds and fog for up to 3,000 hours per year (56) (57).Large-scale forest decline is probably the most alarmingregional manifestation of the effects of air pollutionon terrestrial ecosystems, and the rapid decline ofEuropean forests since the 1970s is the most dramaticexample to date. According to one recent analysis,about 75 percent of Europe's commercial forests sufferdamaging levels of sulfur deposition, and 60 percentendure nitrogen depositions above their "criticalloads" (the amount they can handle without harm) (58).In concert with high levels of ozone, this acid onslaughthas been instrumental in damaging a substantialpercentage of the continent's conifers and deciduoustrees, especially those over 60 years old (59).In Germany, forest surveys indicate that over half ofall trees suffered some defoliation damage in 1989,though the rate of forest decline there shows signs oflessening. In many parts of Central Europe and the Balticrepublics, damage is even more serious and the rateof decline seems to be increasing: in Poland, more than75 percent of all trees showed signs of some damage in1989—up 10 percent from the figure reported in 1988.Reported damage to conifers rose a spectacular 21 percentin Lithuania between 1988 and 1989; more than 60percent of its trees are now affected (60).Forest dieback of such dimensions has substantialeconomic costs, including lost revenue from smallertimber harvests and related losses in wood processingindustries, as well as reductions in recreation andother "nonwood" social benefits. A 1990 study put thecost of pollution damage to European forests atroughly $30 billion per year—about equal to the revenuesfrom Germany's steel industry, and three timesas much as Europe's current financial commitment toair pollution abatement (61). (See Table 13.2.)Forest decline is also evident in North America,though not yet on the scale found in Europe. Recentstudies have pointed to acid rain as a primary contributorto the severe dieback of red spruce at high elevationsthroughout the Appalachian Mountains. Atelevations over 800 meters, where red spruce are adominant species, the number of spruce has declinedby 50 percent or more over the past 25 years, with themortality rate increasing in the past several years. Aciddeposition is also implicated in the recent dieback ofsugar maples in Canada and the northeastern UnitedStates (62) (63).Ecosystem damage caused by acid rain is not theonly cause for concern. Corrosion of stone and metalbuilding materials and monuments has also become aserious problem, especially in Europe, where a richheritage of exposed art and architecture is slowly decayingunder chemical attack (64). Increasing attentionis being paid to the health effects of acid aerosols derivedfrom the chemical transformation of SO2 andNOx in the atmosphere. Mounting evidence suggeststhat acid aerosols may damage human health by contributingto respiratory problems such as bronchitisand asthma (65). In the United States, some scientistshave suggested that acid aerosols should be the nextpollutant for which ambient air quality standards areset (66).Ground-Level OzoneLike acid deposition, the regional effects of groundlevelozone are profound and widespread. Elevatedozone levels are common over most of Europe andNorth America for days at a time during the summer(67) (68) (69). Nor is the problem restricted to urban areas:there is evidence that background levels of ozone are in-198Wbrld Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 13Table 13.2 Estimated Losses of ForestProducts Attributable to Air Pollution, byVolume and ValueRegion/CountryEuropeNordic countriesFinlandNorwaySwedenEuropean CommunityBelgium & LuxembourgDenmarkFranceGermany (West)Germany (East)ItalyNetherlandsUK & IrelandAlpine countriesAustriaSwitzerlandSouthern EuropeGreecePortugalSpain {b}TurkeyYugoslaviaCentral EuropeBulgariaCzechoslovakiaHungaryPolandRomaniaLoss of PotentialHarvest Attributable toAir Pollution (millioncubic meters per year)82.311.14.50.85.828.60.70.43.511.94.93.10.23.75.83.42.47.20.11.5X2.82.829.62.29.53.011.13.8Value of HarvestReduction {a}(million 1987U.S. dollars per year)$23,022.92,925.11,187.6210.41,527.19,389.1252.6117.11,173.63,614.01,160.81,830.567.41,173.11,573.6913.4660.21,797.523.4334.1X671.4768.67,337.6520.92,371.2789.92,658.5997.1Source: "The Price of Pollution: Acid and the Forests of Europe," Options(International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,September 1990), p. 6.Notes:a. Preliminary data; includes roundwood, industrial products, and "nonwood"benefits.b. Data insufficient to allow calculation of pollution effects.X = not available.creasing over North America and Europe as a result ofprogressive increases in the levels of NO2 and VOCs—the precursors of ozone. European data indicate thatamounts of ground-level ozone have doubled over thecontinent in the past century (70). The sources of theseprecursors are widely distributed and somewhat difficultto regulate, including not only power plants, vehicles,and an assortment of small industries, but alsoresidential emissions from house paints and other solvents.Natural VOC sources such as trees can also contributeto rural ozone levels, particularly when humanactivities such as vehicle combustion keep NO X levelsup (71).Ozone's role as a plant toxin is well documented. Itcan damage cells in the leaves of a large number oftree and crop species, interfering with photosynthesis,contributing to nutrient leaching, and resulting ultimatelyin reduced growth and direct foliar damage (72)(73). Ozone-injured trees are also more susceptible to insectattack and root rot (74).Ozone exposure, in combination with acid rain andother stresses, has been implicated as a prime contributorto the current European forest decline. Ozone damageto North American forests is also widespread,with extensive damage to mountain forests near LosAngeles and in the Appalachians. Ozone damage isalso suspected as the primary agent in the reducedgrowth rate observed in the commercial yellow pineforests in the southern United States (75) (76).Agricultural productivity losses from ozone are commonin both Europe and North America. Currentozone levels in the United States are estimated tocause a 5-10 percent loss in potential crop yields (77)(78). Human and animal health effects of ozone exposureare also thought to be significant, especially whensummer weather inversions lead to continuous highexposures for several days over extensive areas (79).Reducing urban and regional ozone levels to thepoint where they no longer cause widespread ecologicaland health effects is expected to be one of the mostdifficult pollution abatement goals. In Europe, for example,computer simulations indicate that both VOCsand NO X must be reduced by an estimated 75 percentfrom current levels to reach the critical loads that ensurethe health of local ecosystems. Such a radical cutin precursor emissions is well beyond anything yetsuggested by European governments (80).Regional Responses and Emission TrendsGiven the widening scope of the air pollution problem,it has become increasingly clear that there mustbe a coordinated, multinational response to pollutionabatement. It is not surprising that the European Communitybecame the first to act on this realization, sincenowhere else are the transboundary effects of pollutionso apparent.In 1979,35 nations from Central and Western Europeand North America signed the Convention onLong-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. What wasat first a weak document has in the intervening decadebecome a fairly effective mechanism for reducing regionalemissions. A protocol requiring a 30 percent reductionin SO2 emissions (from 1980 levels) by 1993was adopted in 1985 (81) (82). Although the UnitedStates did not sign the SO2 protocol, it has subsequentlypassed legislation that will reduce SO2 emissionssome 35 percent by 2000 (83). A second protocolmandating a cap on NO X emissions at 1987 levels wasadopted in 1988, and the 12 members of the EuropeanCommunity went further by promising 30 percentNO X reductions by 1998 (84) (85). In November 1991,21members of the United Nations Economic Commissionfor Europe signed a protocol mandating a 30 percentreduction in VOC emissions by the year 2000,with the intent of reducing ozone levels (86). The protocolincludes emission controls on both vehicles and stationarysources—such as print shops and dry cleaners—that are much more difficult to control.These international agreements could significantlyreduce the most damaging pollutants in the industrializedworld, but there is little reason to believe thatsuch reductions will cut acid deposition and ozone exposureto the critical loads that ecosystems can tolerate(see below) (87). As a result, much stricter limits maybe in the offing. Nevertheless, substantial declines inSO2 emissions have already been realized in the industrializedworld, especially in Europe, where overallSO2 emissions have fallen more than 20 percent fromWorld Resources 1992-93199

13 Atmosphere and ClimateRecent DevelopmentsOZONE DEPLETION ACCELERATESA panel of international scientists said inOctober 1991 that about 3 percent of theEarth's protective layer of stratosphericozone had been depleted over the UnitedStates and other temperate countries. Theozone loss could allow as much as 6 percentmore ultraviolet radiation to strikethe Earth's surface, which could significantlyincrease the incidence of skin cancer—perhapsas many as 12 million morecases in the United States over the next 50years—and adversely affect agriculturalproduction d). Moreover, the ozone lossoccurs in the spring and summer, whenoutdoor activities and crop planting are attheir peak. The depletion is expected toworsen in the 1990s, resulting in perhapsan additional 3 percent loss by the end ofthe century (2). Limiting emissions ofchlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) is essential toavoid still greater losses. However, recentefforts have not yet had an effect on the depletionprocess because CFCs takeroughly 10 years to reach the stratosphereand have a life of 50 to 100 years.The study was sponsored by the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO) andthe United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) (3). It also confirmed thatthe primary causes of ozone depletion arechlorine- and bromine-containing chemicalssuch as CFCs, which are widely usedin refrigerators and air conditioners, andhalons, which are used in fire extinguishers.Meanwhile, the loss of ozone in Antarcticacontinued. In late September 1991, scientistswith the New ZealandMeteorological Service reported a deephole in the ozone layer over Antarctica forthe third consecutive year. Measurementstaken at Scott Base on Ross Island in Antarcticafound a 50-60 percent loss of ozoneduring September (the beginning of thesouthern spring, which usually lasts untillate November). Virtually all the ozonewas depleted at altitudes of 12-20 kilometers(4). As a result, measurements of ultravioletradiation reaching the ground inAntarctica were the highest ever recorded.An international agreement known asthe Montreal Protocol on Substances thatDeplete the Ozone Layer already calls foreliminating CFCs and other chemicals bythe year 2000 in industrialized countriesand by 2010 in developing countries (5).The new findings have prompted calls bymany governments and environmentalgroups to speed the process, eliminatesome of the proposed substitutes (some ofwhich are also detrimental to the ozonelayer), and renegotiate the Montreal Protocolin 1992. The E.I. Du Pont de Nem.rarsCo., the world's largest manufacturer ofCFCs, said it would phase out CFC salesto industrialized countries by 1996 andhalon sales by 1994, more rapidly thanplanned, and would hasten the eliminationof HCFC-22 (6).OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBALWARMINGThe study on ozone depletion (see above)also described a hitherto unknown phenomenonwith important implications forthe rate of global warming. The phenomenonstems from the dual role of CFCs: inthe lower atmosphere, they heat and thuscontribute to global warming but in thestratosphere they become the primarysource of chlorine, which degrades theEarth's ozone shield. So effective are CFCsat trapping heat that they have been creditedwith about 25 percent of the warmingpotential added to the lower atmosphereduring the past decade.Now, however, scientists have for thefirst time calculated the impact of ozonedepletion on global warming, concludingthat decreased stratospheric ozone exerts acooling effect on the lower atmosphere ofa magnitude that may offset the warmingattributed to CFCs (7). In fact, the coolingeffect of ozone loss may be large enoughto have offset a significant part of the heatingfrom increases in all greenhouse gasesover the past decade—a finding that, ifconfirmed, may partially explain why theobserved temperature increases havelagged behind those predicted by climatemodels.If the warming effect of CFCs are offsetby the newly discovered cooling effect,then phasing out CFC use—already underway—will not decrease global warming.Methane, another major greenhouse gaswith a variety of sources (including wetrice agriculture, livestock, landfills, andcoal mining), is not easily controlled, butscientists are beginning to identify newcontrol options (8). That leaves carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions—from combustion offossil fuels and from deforestation—as theprincipal contributor to global warmingand the primary candidate for significantreductions. Mostafa Tolba, executive directorof UNEP, said the recent findingsshowed clearly that "the main emphasisshould be on carbon dioxide" (9). CO2emissions can be controlled by reducingdemand for fossil energy, using it more efficiently,and developing alternativesources of energy.MT. PINATUBO EMISSIONS COULDHAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ONCLIMATEThe massive eruption of Mt. Pinatubo inthe Philippines in June 1991 spewed an immensevolume of ash and sulfur dioxide(SO2) into the stratosphere that could havea significant short-term impact on theEarth's atmosphere.Pinatubo, in a single episode, emittedabout 18 million metric tons of SO2 intothe stratosphere 00), about twice theamount emitted by the 1982 El Chichonvolcano in Mexico (ll) (at the time the largesteruption in 50 years) and almost asmuch as the entire SO2 emissions of theUnited States in one year. (See Chapter 24,"Atmosphere and Climate," Table 24.5.)Because the gases were superhot, theyraced to the stratosphere 20-30 kilometersabove the jarth's surface. Once aloft, thegases drifted around the equator from eastto west, eventually covering the globe.The SO2 gas turns into tiny droplets of sulfuricacid, causing a haze that will reflectand scatter sunlight. Experts think thishaze might lower the average global temperatureby more than 0.3 ° for three orfour years, enough to temporarily maskglobal warming (12). Some scientists alsothink the volcanic particles might play arole similar to that of ice crystals in theAntarctic, enabling chemical reactions tooccur that would destroy ozone in the populatedmidlatitude regions (13).References and Notes1. Bob Davis and Barbara Rosewicz, "PanelSees Ozone Thinning, Intensifying PoliticalHeat," Wall Street Journal (October 13,1991), p. Bl.2. William K. Stevens, "Summertime Harmto Shield of Ozone Detected Over U.S.,"New York Times (October 23,1991), p. Al.3. World Meteorological Organization(WMO) and United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP), "Scientific Assessmentof Stratospheric Ozone, 1991," executivesummary (WMO, October 22,1991).4. "Hole in Ozone Found Over AntarcticaAgain," Washington Post (September 28,1991), p. A3.5. Op. cit. 2.6. Op. cit. 1.7. Op. cit. 3.8. Kathleen B. Hogan, John S. Hoffman, andAnne M. Thompson, "Methane on theGreenhouse Agenda," Nature, Vol. 354,No. 6350 (November 21,1991), pp. 181-182.9. Op. cit. 2, p. Al.10. Arlin J. Krueger, Senior Research Scientist,Laboratory for Atmosphere, U.S. NationalAeronautics and Space Administration,Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,Maryland, 1991 (personal communication).11. William K. Stevens, "Eruption ofPhilippines' Volcano May CounteractGlobal Warming," New York Times (June30,1991), p. Al.12. Ibid.13. Dianne Dumanoski, "Volcano's Blast HasGlobal Reach," Boston Globe (August 5,1991), p. 37.200World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 131980 to 1989 (88). In several countries where the politicalmomentum for pollution abatement is strong,much greater reductions have been made. For instance,Germany, whose concern over forest declineruns deep, reduced SO2 emissions by 53 percent from1980 to 1989 (see Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate,"Table 24.5) and plans to reduce SO2 emissionsby 80 percent from 1983 levels by 1993 (89).Reducing NO X emissions has proven more difficult,and emission increases rather than declines have beenthe rule in all but a few nations (90). This may changein the near future—at least among nations—as NO Xcontrols become more stringent in an effort to combatozone. Some nations, such as Japan and Germany,have already made substantial progress in cuttingpower plant NO X emissions (91).However, emission reductions are highly variableamong nations and are largely dependent on the financialresources available (92). More importantly, overallemissions of SO2 and NO X on a global level are expectedto increase in the years ahead as the energy demandin developing countries continues to rise andthe vehicle population expands (93) (94). Inexpensivehigh-sulfur coal—the worst offender in terms of SO2—is likely to make up an increasing percentage of the fossilfuels burned by power plants and industry, especiallyin developing nations (95). China is expected todouble its coal use by 2000 (96).There is considerable fear that, if the trend towardhigher emissions in the developing world continues atits present rate, SO2 and NO X emissions from developingnations will outstrip those from industrialized nationsin the decades ahead, creating a huge potentialfor acid deposition over a much wider area (97). Manyof the regions at risk have soils that are very sensitiveto acidification. Tropical soils, for example, are oftenhighly weathered and already fairly acidic—conditionsthat predispose them to acid damage (98).SOLUTIONSSolving the problem of urban and regional air pollutionwill require a mix of technical improvements andpolicy initiatives, from using new combustion technologiesto taxing emissions and encouraging energy conservation.Emissions from both stationary sources andvehicles must be reduced considerably in the nearterm. This progress must include the developing nationsif the damage to ecosystems and human health isto be held in check in the face of global development.Finally, industry must join in the cleanup by recognizingthat emission reduction can be a road to greater efficiencyrather than a constraint on profits.Cleaning Up Stationary SourcesStandards and IncentivesEmission standards for large stationary sources, suchas power plants, smelters, and chemical manufacturers,represent the traditional first line of attack in theeffort to reduce air pollution. Such standards have gottenprogressively tighter over the years in most of theindustrialized world. However, they must be mademuch tighter if real progress is to be made in reducingemissions to biologically acceptable levels.Europe has taken positive steps toward implementingecologically based emission standards by acceptingthe concept of "critical pollutant loads" and bycalculating these loads for many areas of the continent(99). Such calculations, both in Europe and NorthAmerica, make it plain that emission reductions muchdeeper than those presently proposed will be requiredto bring pollutants in line with natural tolerances. It isunclear whether the political will and the economicmeans yet exist to attain these low emission levels, butthe conceptual framework has been established—an essentialfirst step in the process of abatement (100).Unfortunately, emission standards are by no meansubiquitous or uniform, especially in developing countries.Nor is the research base available in most of thedeveloping world to establish realistic critical load valuesto use as targets for future emission controls (101).Even where emission standards have been set, the economicmeans to comply with them is often lacking andenforcement weak (102).As the necessity for expensive pollution control technologyhas become apparent, policymakers in industrializedcountries have begun to turn to the marketplaceby providing economic incentives that reward pollutersfor developing and deploying cost-effective abatementschemes (103). Perhaps the simplest application ofthis principle is the pollution tax, under which emittersare taxed per unit of pollutant discharged. Francebecame the first nation to impose a direct pollution taxin May 1990, when a tax on SO2 emissions was established.A more comprehensive statute that will taxCO2 and NO X emissions in addition to SO2 is underconsideration in Sweden (104).A more sophisticated market mechanism uses transferableemission discharge permits or credits. First, anoverall emissions cap is set within a region, and permitsare required for all emissions. If a facility reducesemissions further or more quickly than required, itearns emission "credits" that can be applied to futureemissions or sold to others. The owners of other facilitiescan then opt to purchase these credits to covertheir emissions or take abatement measures themselves,with whatever technology they choose. TheUnited States was the first to adopt this flexible approachwhen it updated its air pollution laws in 1990(105). A similar system has been discussed in Europe aswell, although the multitude of different jurisdictionsthere would make its administration difficult (106).Technological OptionsNumerous technological options are available formeeting emission targets and a combination of methodsmay be required as emission limits become morestringent. Switching to cleaner-burning fuels—eithernatural gas or low-sulfur oil or coal—is one importantand relatively simple option to reduce sulfur emissions.Availability and cost are the greatest obstacles.World Resources 1992-93201

13 Atmosphere and ClimateThe wider use of natural gas is almost sure to figureprominently in pollution control efforts in the industrializedworld and in those developing nations wheregas is plentiful. Natural gas contains virtually no sulfur,and its combustion produces far fewer NOx emissionsthan coal or oil. Because it has a higher ratio ofhydrogen to carbon atoms than oil or coal, its combustionalso produces less CO2, a greenhouse gas that is toassume greater international importance in the future.Natural gas can also be burned more efficiently andmore cleanly: a modern combined-cycle gas turbinepower plant produces less than 55 percent of the CO2generated by a coal-fired plant per unit of electricityproduced (107) (108) (109).Clean coal technologies will also play an importantrole in the years ahead, because—in spite of coal's environmentaldrawbacks—global coal use is expectedto rise substantially. The simplest of these technologies—coalwashing—can remove 20 to 50 percent ofthe sulfur in coal at moderate cost, making it an attractive(if only partially effective) option for many developingnations (110). New combustion technologies canalso help reduce emissions from coal-fired installations,but their costs are considerable. Advanced burnershave reduced NO X emissions by 50 percent at somefacilities. Use of fluidized bed combustion or integratedgasification/combined cycle at new plants hasalso resulted in substantial SO2 and NO X control (ill).The most common technological emissions fixes todate, known as scrubbers, remove pollutants from effluentgases in the smokestack. Again, costs are high,especially for retrofitting older facilities, but resultscan be impressive: up to 95 percent of the SO2 and 70-90 percent of the NOx can be removed by availablescrubber technology (112). Unfortunately, a considerablequantity of waste products—sludge and lowgradegypsum, for example—are produced in theprocess, creating disposal problems (113).ConservationOne of the least expensive and most flexible tools in reducingemissions from stationary sources is energyconservation. (See Chapter 10, "Energy.") Increasingenergy efficiency both at power generating plants andat the point of energy use offers the chance to reduceemission levels without reducing economic activity ordisrupting consumer services. Energy efficiency increasedrapidly in industrialized countries in the 1970sand early 1980s, but it has slowed greatly in the yearssince, due in large part to the powerful disincentive oflow energy prices. Many opportunities still remain forconservation, from increasing the thermal efficiency ofcoal-fired power plants to installing energy-efficientappliances (114) (115).Experience has shown that a unit of energy can beconserved for roughly half the cost of adding equivalentnew capacity at a power plant, with little environmentalimpact. As a result, environmental and energyplanners, who have begun to make conservation alarger part of their pollution control strategy.Alternative SourcesThe replacement of fossil fuels with alternative energy—hydro, wind, solar electric, geothermal, nuclear, orhydrogen—represents the most dramatic action availableto reduce emissions of nearly every major air pollutant.Although important advances have been made,more work remains before these alternatives can be appliedon a large scale. Only nuclear and hydropowerhave been applied extensively and both have high capitalcosts and other adverse environmental impactsthat restrict their use.The feasibility of using hydrogen as a clean fuelsource has improved recently because of developmentsin wind power and photovoltaic (PV) technology,which converts solar energy to electricity. Hydrogenproduces only water and small amounts of NO Xwhen burned, and the wind- or PV-powered electrolysisof water would offer an essentially unlimitedsource of hydrogen without contributing to air pollutionor global warming. Capital requirements for hydrogen-firedpower plants are expected to be relativelylow, making hydrogen use a practical option in regionswhere sunshine for PV arrays is abundant (116).In the meantime, the benefits of available technologiescould be increased by better distribution of thefunds available for pollution control.The Corporate Responsibility MovementIn the past decade and particularly in the past fewyears, many industries have begun to modify manufacturingprocesses to minimize toxic emissions—in otherwords, to address the problem of emissions at itssource, not simply to clean up afterward (117). For example,the auto industry has begun to phase out theuse of solvent-based paints in favor of water-basedpaints that give off no hydrocarbon emissions (118).For some companies, these actions respond to theprobability of tighter emission standards, as well asthe fear that being labeled a polluter will harm thecompany image (119). For others, however, waste andemission reductions are a means to more efficient useof materials, adding to the bottom line as well as salvingthe corporate conscience. When Deere & Co. eliminatedthe use of solvents in its engine manufacturingfacility, for example, it saved $380,000 a year in productioncosts while forgoing the annual release of 320metric tons of solvent vapors (120).The list of large multinational corporations with programsin waste and emission reduction is impressive.Monsanto Chemical Co. announced in 1988 that itwould reduce its hazardous emissions 90 percent by1992. The Dow Chemical Co. has cut its emissions by50 percent since 1984, and plans a similar reductionfrom current levels by 1995. E.I. Du Pont de Nemours& Co. has pledged a 70 percent reduction of all hazardouswaste by the year 2000 (121).Companies that achieve such ambitious goals generallyshare some common traits: a genuine and clearlycommunicated commitment to pollution reduction onthe part of top management; specific, publicly announcedemission reduction targets; incentives withinWorld Resources 1992-9:202

Atmosphere and Climate 13the company to generate ideas for manufacturing refinementsthat benefit pollution goals; and recognitionfor those facilities that meet or exceed these goals (122).Reducing Vehicle PollutionMotor vehicles cause more air pollution than any othersingle human activity. They are a major source of emissionsfor a variety of atmospheric pollutants, contributingnearly one half of the human-caused NO X , two thirdsof the carbon monoxide, and about one half of the hydrocarbonsin industrialized countries, as well as most of theairborne lead in developing nations. Addressing vehicleemissions is thus an essential element in reducing bothlocal and regional air pollution (123) (124).Projected increases in the global vehicle populationcould lead to explosive growth in vehicle emissions.More than 500 million automobiles and commercial vehiclesnow ply the world's roads, 10 times more thanin 1950 (125). And according to recent projections, theglobal vehicle population will double over the next 40years to about 1 billion (126). Much of this growth willtake place in developing countries, where demand forautomobiles is expected to increase by over 200 percentby the end of the century (127), greatly exacerbatingcurrent pollution problems, especially in urbanareas (128).Catalytic ConvertersThe options for cleaning up vehicle emissions beginwith tighter tailpipe emission standards. Fairly stringenttailpipe controls have allowed Japan and theUnited States to greatly increase the number of vehicleswithout a corresponding increase in emissions,and a new round of stricter limits has just been adoptedin both Europe and the United States (129) (130).The use of catalytic converters to treat exhaust gaseshas been the most important tool in controlling autoemissions in Japan and the United States for over a decade.A catalytic converter can reduce emissions ofVOCs and carbon monoxide by about 85 percent, andNO X by about 60 percent, over the life of a car (131).Europe's new emission limits—driven by the need tolower ozone levels—will also require use of catalyticdevices by 1993 (132). Recent improvements in this technologywill help auto manufacturers meet new emissionlimits at reduced cost (133).In developing countries, the adoption of state-of-theartemission controls such as catalytic devices is complicatedby the use of poor-quality leaded fuel (leadpoisons catalysts), the high price, and lack of public acceptanceof such controls. Phasing out leaded fuelwould constitute a major first step toward cleaner air,simultaneously reducing dangerous lead exposuresand allowing the eventual use of catalytic devices asemission standards are tightened. A simple graduatedtax on gasoline in proportion to its lead content couldhelp encourage such a change (134).Rigorous vehicle maintenance and inspection programs,to ensure compliance, are an important adjunctto emission standards. Tampering and poor maintenancecan quickly render emission controls ineffective (135).Age also tends to decrease the performance of pollutionequipment; most current auto emission controlsare designed to meet emission standards for only50,000 miles, about half a vehicle's average lifetimemileage. Older automobiles typically generate moreharmful emissions than newer models (136). Programsto retire older vehicles from the road, perhaps by offeringsome financial incentive, could therefore improvethe emission performance of the vehicle fleet.Emissions from diesel trucks and buses are anotherimportant target. Diesel engines without emission controlsemit 30-70 times more particulates than gasolineengines equipped with catalytic converters (137). Untilrecently, diesel engines were virtually unregulatedworldwide, but new standards adopted by the UnitedStates and Europe have spurred development of technologiesthat promise to greatly improve diesel emissionperformance (138) (139). Gradual incorporation ofthese technologies, which include engine modificationsas well as flow-through exhaust catalysts andparticulate traps, could greatly benefit urban centers inthe developing world, where diesel exhaust contributessubstantially to the pollution load (140).Alternative FuelsIn addition to exhaust controls, the use of alternativefuels that burn cleaner than petrol shows great potentialfor reducing emissions. The simplest option is to reformulatecurrent petrol blends to reduce bothvolatility—and thus VOC emissions—and the amountof toxic additives such as benzene. Addition of alcoholsand ethers to create "oxygenated" fuels ("gasohol"is an example) also helps to promote a cleanerburn. In the United States, new legislation mandatesthe use of such reformulated fuels in areas with theworst ozone problems (141) (142). Cleaner diesel fuelswith lower sulfur contents can also yield significantemissions benefits, particularly in urban settings.Unfortunately, reformulated fuels will probablyyield emission improvements of no more than about30 percent. Petrol alternatives (such as methanol, ethanol,compressed natural gas or liquified petroleumgas, hydrogen, or electric batteries) can give muchgreater emission reductions—as much as 90 percent insome cases. These options are being actively consideredin such problem areas as Los Angeles, where officialsfeel that radical steps must be taken if pollutionlevels are to be reduced (143) (144).Clean-fuel vehicles suffer practical limitations—suchas reduced range—and still require much refinement(145). Nonetheless, the U.S. government has establisheda pilot clean-fuel program in Los Angeles that will require150,000 clean-fuel vehicles by 1996 (146). Meanwhile,the European Community has set a goal ofintroducing 7 million emission-free electric vehicles tothe continent by the year 2000 (147). Fleet vehicles suchas taxis and buses, with limited range and central refuelingfacilities, would be ideal candidates for conversionto alternative fuels (148). Analysts believe thisstrategy can reduce urban vehicle pollution in both industrializedand developing nations.World Resources 1992-93203

13 Atmosphere and ClimateReducing CongestionRegardless of improvements in fuels and controls,emissions levels will not improve if increasing trafficcongestion makes travel less efficient: more vehiclesburning more fuel to travel shorter distances. Already,massive congestion plagues a high percentage of theworld's urban areas. Better traffic management willtherefore play an important part in preserving technology-basedemission gains. This can range from physicalmethods—coordinated traffic lights, paired onewaystreets, and separate carpool or bus lanes—to economicincentives—"congestion pricing" that chargesmotorists for driving on roadways during peak trafficperiods (149) (150).An aggressive commitment to alternative transport,from bicycles to mass transit, is another essential elementin reducing vehicle pollution and highway congestion.The pollution benefits of rail and bus transitare well known, but less attention has been paid to accommodatingbicycle and pedestrian traffic, which ona global basis provide two of the least expensive andmost widespread alternatives to auto transport (151).Some countries have begun to provide a safer environmentfor bicycle and pedestrian traffic by creating separatelanes, overpasses, or spaces at intersections, orsimply slowing traffic with speed bumps and diversions.Bicycle and pedestrian transport can be integratedinto a city's overall transit scheme through suchstrategies as uninterrupted through-routes, secure bicycleparking at transit stations, and the permission totake bicycles aboard trains and buses, thus makingthem useful at both ends of a workday commute (152).Vehicle-free zones in city centers is another popularstrategy to solve urban pollution problems and "reclaim"urban spaces for nonvehicle traffic. Nearlyevery major European city and many cities in other regionshave restricted vehicle use in some part of thecity center. By requiring drivers to refrain from usingtheir autos one day a week or face stiff fines and vehicleimpoundment, both Mexico City and Santiago have reducedtraffic by as much as 20 percent (153) (154).Key IssuesGLOBAL CLIMATE TREATY TALKS PROCEEDThe nations of the world are poised to take a historic stepin mid-1992 when they will consider an internationalframework treaty on climate change that may include anagreement among industrialized countries limitingemissions of gases such as carbon dioxide that contributeto global warming. By October 1991, however,many crucial details of the agreement remained unsettled.The negotiations have been difficult, but the processhas moved forward and there is hope that anagreement can be ready for consideration at the June1992 United Nations Conference on Environment andDevelopment (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro.The process began in the fall of 1990 when theUnited Nations General Assembly established an autonomousIntergovernmental Negotiating Committee(INC) for a framework convention on climate change.With the help of the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization(WMO), INC was charged with negotiatingan "effective" treaty on climate change with "appropriatecommitments." The INC process was conductedseparately from the preparations for UNCED, but thetreaty signing was expected to be a centerpiece of theUNCED meeting (155).The committee split into two working groups, thefirst dealing with substantive issues and the secondwith the legal and institutional mechanisms to implementprovisions of an agreement.The first three INC meetings—in February, June,and September 1991—dealt largely with organizationalissues and initial discussions about the contentsof the treaty. Two more meetings (December 1991,when negotiations on the text were to begin, and February1992) are scheduled, and a sixth meeting is possiblein April or May 1992 (156).By October 1991 many major issues remained unresolved.The critical ones included:• All industrialized nations except the United States favoredthe adoption of concrete targets and timetablesfor stabilizing CO2 emissions. EC nations wanted tostabilize emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000; afew countries proposed actual cuts below 1990 levels.The United States strongly opposed such targets, arguingthat the long-term climatic benefits were uncertainand that such an agreement would curtail burningof fossil fuels such as coal and oil and threaten economicgrowth. The United States also argued that itwas already taking actions—for example, by phasingout chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as part of an internationalagreement to prevent the destruction of stratosphericozone—that would hold its net contribution ofgreenhouse gases to 1990 levels in the year 2000 (157).That argument was substantially undercut, however,by new evidence that CFC-induced ozone depletionmay cool the atmosphere to a degree that offsets someof the CFC warming. (See Recent Developments.)• Many developing countries said their willingness tomake commitments—especially if the treaty includes areview mechanism that includes enforcement measures—wascontingent on new financial support fromthe industrialized countries to help pay the costs. TheUnited States also was the leading opponent of newfunding for the developing countries.In the fall of 1991, the biggest stumbling block to thetreaty appeared to be the U.S. opposition to targets orfinancial assistance, which was preventing a consensusamong industrialized countries. EC nations andJapan were continuing to press for a minimum agreementon targets that the United States would support,and at the same time were concerned about the competitiveimplications of any agreement that did not includethe United States (158).204World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 13FOCUS ON GREENHOUSE GASEMISSIONSHuman activity is altering the composition of the atmospherein ways that could bring rapid changes inclimate.A natural greenhouse effect keeps the Earth's surfacewarm. Infrared radiation that would otherwise escapeinto space is trapped by trace constituents of theatmosphere such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane,and other greenhouse gases. Human activities notonly increase the atmospheric concentrations of thesenaturally occurring greenhouse gases but also add newpowerful infrared-absorbing gases—such as the industrialchemicals known as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)(see Table 13.3). Emissions of greenhouse gases fromhuman activities have accelerated in recent decades.Is the global climate getting warmer? Certainly the1980s were the warmest decade recorded since carefulweather records began being kept. Six of the 10 hottestyears on record have occurred since 1980—1989,1988,1987,1983,1981, and 1980 itself. Hotter still was 1990—the warmest year yet, according to the British MeteorologicalOffice, based on global average surfacetemperatures as recorded by weather stations—andthe first 10 months of 1991 were nearly as warm (159)(160). But scientists cannot yet say whether this warmweather is a trend, resulting from rising concentrationsof greenhouse gases, or whether it is merely a naturalfluctuation.But extensive climate change is likely, according to amajor international scientific study sponsored jointlyby the United Nations Environment Programme andthe World Meteorological Organization and conductedunder the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC). The study involved the effortsof several hundred leading atmospheric scientistsfrom many nations, and it produced a synthesis of thebest available scientific knowledge. The report of theIPCC Scientific Assessment Panel concluded that, ifcurrent emission trends continue, mean global temperatureswill rise at the rate of 0.3° C per decade, basedon current models. "This will result," the report states,"in a likely increase in global mean temperature duringthe next century of about 1 ° C above the presentvalue by 2025 and 3° C before the end of the next century"(161).Because atmospheric concentrations of long-livedgreenhouse gases adjust slowly to changes in emissions,continued emissions of such gases at presentrates, the report says, "would commit us to increasedconcentrations for centuries ahead." To stabilize atmosphericconcentrations of CO2 and CFCs at today's levels,the report calculates, "would require immediatereductions in emissions from human activities of over60 percent...; methane would require a 15-20 percentreduction" (162).Just how such drastic reductions might be achieved,and what they might cost, is hotly debated. One recentstudy in the United States, for example, concluded thatU.S. greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced between10 and 40 percent of 1990 levels at low cost, orTable 13.3 Summary of Atmospheric Growthof Greenhouse GasesPresent AnnualConcentration in AirIncreaseGas Preindustrial 1989 Rate PercentCarbon dioxideMethaneChlorofluorocarbon-12Chlorofluorocarbon-11Nitrous OxideTropospheric Ozone275.00 ppm0.70 ppm0.000.00280.00 ppbX354.00 ppm 1.70 ppm1.7 ppm 12.30 ppb0.47ppb 0.025 ppb0.28 ppb 0.010 ppb306 .OOppb 0.600 ppb35.00 ppb {a} X0.40.75.33.40.2 {a}Source:U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Potential Effects of GlobalClimate Change on the United States, draft report, Joel B. Smith and Dennis A.Tirpak, eds. (EPA, Washington, D.C., 1988), Table 2.1.Notes: a. 1986 data.ppm = parts per million.pbb = parts per billion.X = not available.even at some net economic savings, if proper policieswere implemented (163).GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSAny effort to stabilize or reduce greenhouse gas emissionsmust begin with a realistic, quantitative pictureof the volume and distribution of those emissions. Thistask is complicated by uncertainties in emissions data.The method used to estimate methane emissions fromwet rice agriculture presented here is based on the consensusof an expert panel convened by the Organisationof Economic Co-operation and Development (164).Relatively few careful studies have been conducted,however, and many of those were in Europe, whilemost rice is grown in tropical countries. Preliminarystudies in China suggest that methane emissions fromrice fields in that country may be far higher (165); comparablestudies are under way but not yet completedin India. Emissions of the gases that form troposphericozone are believed to occur predominantly in industrialcountries, but quantitative estimates are not availableand these gases are thus not included in thisanalysis. Estimates of carbon dioxide from combustionof fossil fuels and other industrial processes, thoughbetter known, are still accurate only to within about 10percent.This report also calculates greenhouse gas emissionsfrom deforestation and land clearing on the assumptionthat, aside from a small portion of carbon that issequestered in the soil, all of the carbon from clearedvegetation is oxidized and released as CO2. A significantfraction of the carbon could be released as methane,a far more potent greenhouse gas. The deliberateburning of grasslands, particularly in developing countries,has also been shown to be a significant source ofmethane emissions, but no estimates of the amount ofburning on a national basis are available (166). Estimatesof methane emissions from industrial uses inthe Soviet Union also vary widely; those used here areon the lower end of the spectrum.Even the underlying data on land use changes, includingdeforestation, are uncertain. The most recentdata available for most tropical countries stem fromthe 1980 assessment of the Food and Agriculture Orga-World Resources 1992-93205

13 Atmosphere and ClimateFigure 13.1 Cumulative Emissions of CarbonDioxide from Fossil Fuels for 25 Countrieswith the Highest Emissions, 1950-89(billion metric tons of carbon dioxide)140-120-100-80-60-40-20-U.S. E.C.{a} Japan Poland India S. Africa MexicoU.S.S.R. China Canada German Czecho- Australia RomaniaDem. Rep. SlovakiaSource: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory, unpublished data, (CDIAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, August1989).Note: a. The European Community (EC) comprises 12 countries: Belgium,Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom.nization of the United Nations (FAO), which is nowgenerally conceded to have underestimated deforestationrates. Preliminary estimates from the 1990 FAO assessmentshow that, on a global basis, deforestation issignificantly higher than in the 1980 Assessment, butrevised estimates for individual countries are not yetavailable. (See Chapter 8, "Forests and Rangelands.")(Brazil, which over the past three years has launchedan intensive effort to monitor deforestation systematicallyand now compiles annual estimates of deforestation,is a notable exception.) The amount of carbon perhectare varies with the type of forest, and estimatesthat are both lower and higher than those used herehave been published; more comprehensive studies areunder way in Brazil.The task of presenting a comprehensive picture ofemissions and their impact is also complicated by lackof agreement on how to compare the heating effects ofgases that have different lifetimes in the atmosphere.Accordingly, this volume of World Resources presentsnational and per capita rankings based on two methods(which nevertheless yield quite similar results)and discusses a number of other approaches.Past EmissionsThe most important greenhouse gas, CO2, arises primarilyfrom the burning of fossil fuels and the burningand clearing of land for agricultural purposes. Anenormous quantity of CO2 has been released throughhuman activities, some of which can be estimated.Worldwide consumption of fossil fuels in the period1860 to 1949 is estimated to have released 187 billionmetric tons of CO2 (167). In the past four decades, fossilfuel use has accelerated and CO2 emissions in the period1950-89 totaled an additional 559 billion metrictons. (See Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate,"Table 24.4.) Figure 13.1 shows the relative contributionsfor the period 1950-89 of the 25 countries thathave been the largest sources of CO2 emissions fromindustrial processes (the European Community istreated as a single entity). The United States is the largestemitter, followed by the countries of the EuropeanCommunity and the Soviet Union.Land use change, including deforestation for agriculturalpurposes, is estimated to have released about another220 billion metric tons of CO2 since 1860 (168).Such estimates do not take into account the acceleratingdeforestation in tropical forest countries in the pastdecade, which may account for as much as an additional50 billion metric tons of CO2. Data that wouldallow estimates of cumulative national emissions ofmethane or of CFCs are not available.Current EmissionsIn Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate/' Tables 24.1and 24.2 provide estimates of emissions for the majorgreenhouse gases in 1989 (or for the most recent yearprior to 1989), by source and by country. These estimatesincorporate revisions in emission estimates forwet rice agriculture; the expansion of data to includemethane emissions from natural gas venting, production,and transmission; and upward revisions of methaneemissions from coal mining.In all, global CO2 emissions to the atmosphere fromcombustion of fossil fuels, production of cement, andland use clearing are estimated at 28 billion metrictons, 77 percent from industrial sources. Estimatedemissions of methane, a far more potent gas in trappingheat but one that has a relatively short lifetime inthe atmosphere, amounted to 270 million tons; thetotal includes emissions from solid waste, livestock,coal mining, wet rice cultivation, and natural gas production.Global emissions of CFC-11 and CFC-12, themost potent and perhaps the longest-lived greenhousegases, are estimated at 580,000 metric tons. (See Tables24.1 and 24.2.) Relative to 1987, CO2 emissions from industrialprocesses have increased, but CO2 emissionsfrom land use change and deforestation have declined.Methane emissions have increased somewhat, andthose of CFC-11 and CFC-12 have significantly decreased.Other greenhouse gases include ground-level ozone(a short-lived but potent gas that is a principal constituentof smog), nitrous oxide (a very long-lived gaswhose sources are poorly understood), and other CFCand CFC-replacement gases. Together, these gases areestimated to account for about 15 percent of the currentwarming potential attributable to human-inducedemissions of greenhouse gases (warming potentialmeans the amount of future warming that a givenemission will cause). No estimates of emissions bycountry are available for these gases, and they areomitted in the following discussions.206World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 13Box 13.2 Calculating a Greenhouse IndexSince the publication of national and percapita Greenhouse Indexes in World Resources1990-91, the work of the scientificassessment panel of the IntergovernmentalProgram on Climate Change (IPCC)has set a de facto standard for discussionof greenhouse gas emissions (D. The paneladopted a conceptual unit, the "globalwarming potential" (GWP), for comparingthe impact of gases that have different lifetimesin the atmosphere and different potenciesin absorbing heat. One complicationinherent in such a comparison is thatthe potency of a greenhouse gas dependson its concentration in the atmosphere,which in turn depends on assumptionsabout future emissions. A second complicationis that the lifetimes of the greenhousegases (or conversely, the rate atwhich they are removed from the atmosphereby natural processes) is not knownwith any precision, at least for carbon dioxide(CO2), the most important greenhousegas. Estimates of removal rates are basedon models of atmospheric, oceanic, andbiospheric processes that are still the subjectof considerable debate.The GWP for a given gas is determinedby integrating an expression for the removalrate times an expression for the infraredabsorption potency of the gas (2).GWP values depend on the period ofyears over which the integration is carriedout, which must be chosen arbitrarily. TheIPCC panel reported values for 20,100,and 500 years; the Greenhouse Index reportedin this chapter uses an integrationperiod of 100 years.Values calculated by the IPCC panel arenormalized so that the GWP of carbon dioxideis 1. The corresponding GWP formethane is 21 and for CFCs (the mix ofCFC-11 and CFC-12 emitted in 1989), 5,873(3). To calculate a Greenhouse Index, nationalemissions of each greenhouse gas(from Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate,"Tables 24.1 and 24.2) are weightedby the appropriate GWP and the result issummed to obtain the impact of a country'stotal emissions in carbon dioxideequivalents. The IPCC panel cautions thatthese values are preliminary and subject tochange. The GWP approach has not beenuniversally accepted; some scientists stillhave strong reservations, in part becauseof the arbitrary integration period.A Greenhouse Index was also calculatedfor this report using the method adoptedin World Resources 1990-91, with somemodifications. The method is less sophisticatedthan the GWP approach and isbased on observational evidence ratherthan models of how the atmosphere behaves.It depends on the concept of the airbornefraction of a gas—the proportion ofthe gas emitted from human activities thatis initially retained in the air rather than removedby natural processes and thus addsto the concentration levels in the atmosphere.The airborne fraction is readily determinedas the (measured) increase inconcentration of a greenhouse gas in agiven year times the mass of the atmosphere,divided by total global emissionsof that gas.The airborne fraction is a crude but usefulmeasure of the effective lifetime of a gassubject to the natural processes of the carboncycle of the Earth; the more rapid theremoval processes (i.e., the shorter the lifetime),the smaller the airborne fraction.The product of this effective lifetime andthe infrared absorption potency for a givengas thus provides a weighting factorfor emissions, the greenhouse forcing contribution(GFC), that is roughly equivalentbut not identical to the GWP (4). Thismethod has been critized as imprecise, becausethe gas removed from the atmospherein a given year may have beenemitted in a previous year, not the year inwhich the airborne fraction is calculated.In addition, this method can only be appliedto periods of rising concentrations ofgreenhouse gases.In calculating a Greenhouse Index withthis method, earlier procedures have beenmodified slightly to use the same infraredpotencies adopted by the IPCC scientificassessment panel, to adopt units of carbondioxide equivalents (rather than carbonequivalents), and to determine annual concentrationchanges based on a three-yearrolling average—thus smoothing out measurementfluctuations and short-term variationsin the carbon cycle. For 1989, theairborne fraction for carbon dioxide was0.50 and for methane, 0.13. (The airbornefraction of CFCs is assumed to be 1—i.e.,all CFCs emitted to the atmosphere remainthere). When combined with the potencies,the GFCs (normalized such thatthe GFC of carbon dioxide is 1) are 15 formethane and 10,249 for the mixture ofCFC-11 and CFC-12 emitted in 1989. Nationalemissions (from Tables 24.1 and24.2) are weighted by the appropriate GFCand summed to obtain the impact of acountry's total emissions in carbon dioxideequivalents.The IPCC method thus weights methaneemissions slightly higher and CFC emissionslower than does the World Resourcesmethod. Because differences in raw indexscores between the two methods usedhere are not meaningful, Table 13.4 presentsinstead rank and percent share ofglobal emissions for each country. For percapita emissions, Table 13.5 presents rankand per capita emissions relative to thoseof the median per capita emissions for theworld.References and Notes1. Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), Climate Change: The IPCCScientific Assessment,}^. Houghton, G.J.Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums, eds. (CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, U.K.,1990).2. The GWP index score is calculated as follows:I = £ e, GWP; where 2 means to sumiiover all gases (i); e. = the country's emissionsof gas i; andTiQdtGWP,= where r,- = the radiativeforcing of gas i; c, = the atmospheric concentrationof gas i; r c = the radiative forcingof carbon dioxide; c c = the atmosphericconcentration of carbon dioxide; and N =the integration period (or time horizon).3. Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), Climate Change: The IPCCScientific Assessment, J.T. Houghton, G.J.Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums, eds. (CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, U.K.,1990), p. xxi. The combined GWP for CFC-11 and CFC-12 was calculated using IPCCdata for GWPs and World Resources Institutedata for emissions.4. The GFC index score is calculated as follows:I = 2 e, GFC, where 2 means to sum,•iover all gases (i); e, = the country's emissionsof gas i; GFC = r;Af,-; r, the radiativeforcing of gas i; and Af,• = the airborne fractionof gas / =the net atmospheric increase of gas ithe total global emissions ot gas iGreenhouse IndexesThe pattern of emissions of different greenhouse gasesvaries markedly from country to country. To describequantitatively the effects of such emissions on the atmosphere,it is useful to calculate a Greenhouse Indexthat sums up each country's contribution or relativeshare of the warming potential for a given year. TheIndex and the national rankings based on it are descriptivein character and intent, apply only to the yearspecified, and neither imply priorities for reductions ofemissions (these are considered in a following section)nor suggest responsibilities under a climate convention(which must be negotiated after taking many factorsinto account).To calculate the combined impact on the atmosphereof emissions of different greenhouse gases, it is neces-World Resources 1992-93207

13 Atmosphere and ClimateTable 13.4 Greenhouse Index Ranking andPercent Share of Global Emissions, 1989Intertergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC)Percent Country17.813.69.14.74.13.93.42.22.01.71.71.61.51.51.51.41.11.11.11.10.90.90.80.80.70.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.30.30.3United StatesU.S.S.R.ChinaJapanIndiaBrazilGermanWa}United KingdomMexicoIndonesiaCanadaItalyFranceThailandPolandColombiaMyanmarNigeriaAustraliaSouth AfricaCoted'lvoireSpainKorea, RepPhilippinesCzechoslovakiaMalaysiaRomaniaViet NamLao People's Dem RepSaudi ArabiaIran, Islamic RepArgentinaVenezuelaNetherlandsEcuadorKorea, Dem People's RepYugoslaviaPeruPakistanBangladeshTurkeyMadagascarZaireBelgiumSudanBulgariaCameroonEgyptGreeceIraqRank1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950World ResourcesCountryUnited StatesU.S.S.R.ChinaJapanBrazilIndiaGermanWa}United KingdomwiexicoItalyFranceCanadaIndonesiaPolandThailandColombiaAustraliaSouth AfricaMyanmarSpainNigeriaCote d'lvoireKorea, RepCzechoslovakiaMalaysiaPhilippinesRomaniaLao People's Dem RepViet NamSaudi ArabiaIran, Islamic RepNetherlandsArgentinaVenezuelaYugoslaviaEcuadorPakistanPeruKorea, Dem People's RepTurkeyBelgiumMadagascarZaireBulgariaGreeceSudanEgyptBangladeshCameroonHungaryPercent18.413.58.45.63.83.53.62.42.01.81.71.71.61.41.41.41.11.11.11.11.10.90.80.70.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.60.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.30.30.30.3Sources:1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JPCC), Climate Change: TheIPCC Scientific Assessment, J. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums,eds. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 1990).2. Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate," Tables 24.1 and 24.2.Note: a. Data for Germany include both the former Federal Republic ofGermany and the German Democratic Republic.sary to combine an estimate of each gas's lifetime andits potency. The results of two methods of performingthese calculations are presented here. The first methodis that adopted by the IPCC Scientific Assessment Panel(see Box 13.2); the second method is that adopted inWorld Resources 1990-91, with slight refinements. Eachhas its advantages and disadvantages, but for the purposesof providing an overall description of the patternof emissions, both methods give comparableresults: they treat CO2 emissions identically; the IPCCmethod weights methane emissions slightly higher,and CFC emissions significantly lower, than does theWorld Resources method. (For convenience, all numbersin the text are based on the IPCC method unless otherwisenoted.)Figure 13.2 The Greenhouse Index: 25Countries with the Highest Greenhouse GasEmissions, 1989(percentage of total emissions)20-U.S.S.R. China India Mexico Canada Poland MyanmarU.S. E.C.fa} Japan Brazil Indonesia Thailand ColombiaSources:1 .Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change: TheIPCC Scientific Assessment, J. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums,eds. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 1990).2.Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate," Tables 24.1 and 24.2.Note: a. The European Community (EC) comprises 12 countries: Belgium,Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom.National RankingsTable 13.4 gives the national rank and percent share ofthe global warming potential attributable to the countriesthat in 1989 emitted the most CO2, methane, andCFCs. The countries are ranked by their GreenhouseIndex, as determined by the two methods given in Box13.2 and the emissions data in Tables 24.1 and 24.2.The United States and the Soviet Union are the largestand second largest emitters, contributing, respectively,18 percent and 14 percent of the total atmosphericimpact of current emissions. Taken as a singleunit, the European Community ranks third with an 11percent share (see Figure 13.2). The top six countries—3 industrialized and 3 developing—together accountfor more than 50 percent of the total atmospheric impactof current emissions. Altogether, the 50 countrieslisted in Table 13.4 accounted for 92 percent of 1989total emissions.Several countries changed their rankings by at leasttwo places, compared with the rankings given inWorld Resources 1990-91 based on 1987 emissions.Japan moved up because of increased emissions ofCFCs and of CO2 from fossil fuels. Mexico and Thailandmoved higher because of increased estimates ofCO2 emissions from land use change. Brazil, India,and Indonesia moved down because of lower estimatesof CO2 emissions from land use changes. Brazil,in particular, has documented dramatic reductions inCO2 emissions in 1988-90.Per Capita RankingsTable 13.5 provides per capita rank and a measure ofper capita global warming potential impact attribut-208World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 13Box 13.3 Alternative Indexes of Greenhouse Gas EmissionsThere is vigorous debate about how to constructindexes that represent the combinedeffect of each nation's greenhouse emissionsin a policy-relevant and appropriatefashion; no scientific consensus has yetemerged. In addition to the indexes presentedin this chapter, other approacheshave been proposed or are in the processof being developed.An American researcher, Kirk Smith,has proposed an index of "natural debt"that exemplifies the cumulative approach.Natural debt arises, according to Smith,when greenhouse gases are put into the atmospherefaster than they can be naturallyremoved. The natural debt index is the cumulativesurviving human-induced emissionsof greenhouse gases per capita,taking into account the differing atmosphericlifetimes and potencies of eachgas. Smith admits that calculation of suchan irtdex would be difficult in practice; asan approximation, he uses CO2 from fossilfuel combustion over the period 1900 tothe present. On that basis, he estimatesthat the total carbon released into the atmosphereand still present as CO2 is about260 metric tons per living resident of theUnited States, compared to about 6 metrictons for the average resident of India. Industrialnations, because of their early useof fossil fuels, have much larger cumulativeemissions than developing nations.Smith argues that, because the economicstatus of most countries has been achievedpartly by incurring natural debts, responsibilityfor greenhouse emissions should bemeasured by an index that reflects thesenatural debts. However, he also distinguishesbetween allocating responsibilityfor emissions—or paying for remediativemeasures—and setting priorities for remediativemeasures. Thus he suggests thatthe greatest responsibility for cumulativeemissions lies with industrial countries,while the projects with the greatest potentialfor reducing emissions may occur inany country (l).A different approach is that proposedby Yasumasa Fujii, a Japanese researcherworking at the International Institute ofApplied Systems Analysis in Austria.Fujii's method, based on interregional andintergenerational equity, allocates equalcarbon emission rights to every personborn from the year 1800 to the year 2100,regardless of when or where they lived,and permits future generations to inheritunspent carbon quotas by region. Themethod then establishes regional quotasdesigned to equalize average per capitaemissions in each region over the 300-yearperiod, assuming that CO2 levels andworld population both double from presentvalues. Under these conditions, Fujiifinds that North America's quota, becauseof its long history of high energy use, isabout one tenth of present per capita levels.Other industrial regions where highenergy use patterns are more recent havequotas only slightly smaller than at present.Developing regions would be able toincrease per capita emissions substantially,but not as much as might be expected,because soaring populationsoverwhelm inherited balances (2) (3).A somewhat similar approach has beendeveloped by Anil Agarwal and SunitaNarain of the Centre for Science and Environmentin New Dehli, India. Their indexallocates the natural sinks for CO2 andmethane to each nation in proportion to itspopulation, and calculates each country'sexcess emissions of each gas—if any—beyondwhat its share of the global sink canabsorb. Sinks are estimated indirectlyusing the nonairborne fraction of globalanthropogenic emissions, since the characterand geographical location of sinks forcarbon dioxide are not well known. Theauthors also suggest various schemes bywhich nations that exceed their emissionquotas could buy emission rights from nationsthat do not (4).Two other methods represent variationson the IPCC method and are intended toremove perhaps the major problem of thatmethod, namely, the need to pick an arbitraryparameter—the integration period—in calculating global warming potentials.One method, developed by Daniel Lashofof the Natural Resources Defense Councilin Washington, D.C., employs instead a"discount rate" that at least casts thechoice of such a parameter in terms commonlyused by economists to make estimatesabout the future (5). A secondmethod, developed by John Reuther andhis colleagues at the Pittsburgh EnergyTechnology Center, proposes a new modelfor the atmospheric lifetime of CO2 thatcan be used to calculate global warmingpotentials without arbitrary parameters (6).The editors of World Resources believethat publication of several types of indexes—totalnational emissions, per capitaemissions, and cumulative emissions—tanbest serve the needs of describing physicalreality and of providing measures of howcountries are meeting internationallyagreed-upon emission limits.References and Notes1. Kirk R. Smith, "Allocating Responsibilityfor Global Warming: The Natural DebtIndex," Ambio, Vol. 20, No. 2 (April 1991),pp. 95-96.2. Yasumasa Fujii, "An Assessment of the Responsibilityfor the Increase in the CO2Concentration and Inter-Generational CarbonAccounts" (International Institute forApplied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,Austria, 1990).3. "CO2: ABalancing of Accounts," Options(International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis, Laxenburg, Austria, December1990), pp. 10-13.4. Anil Agarwal and Sunita Narain, "GlobalWarming in an Unequal World" (Centrefor Science and Environment, New Dehli,India, 1991), pp. 13- 20.5. Daniel A. Lashof and Dilip R. Ahuja, "RelativeContributions of Greenhouse GasEmissions to Global Warming," Nature,Vol. 344, No. 6266 (April 5,1990), p. 529.6. John A. Ruether, Director, Systems AnalysisDivision, Pittsburgh Energy TechnologyCenter, U.S. Department of Energy,Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 1991 (personalcommunication).able to 1989 emissions of CO2, methane, and CFCs.The measure given is the ratio of a country's per capitaemissions to the world median per capita figure,which for 1989 is 2.96 metric tons of CO2 heatingequivalent per person. The countries are ranked bytheir per capita Greenhouse Index, as determined byeach of two methods, and the 50 countries with thelargest per capita contributions are given for eachmethod. Some countries that ranked high on the basisof total contributions, such as China and India, disappearentirely from the 50 largest contributors on a percapita basis. The highest per capita emissions comefrom countries with small populations that are eitheroil producers (oil production also consumes energyand releases CO2 and methane) or countries with significantdeforestation.Among the major industrial countries, the per capitawarming potential impact of a U.S. resident is the highestin the world—8.7 times that of a resident of China(which happens to equal the world median) and 14.3times that of a resident of India. The per capita impactof a resident of Japan is only 53 percent of that of aU.S. resident. Figure 13.3 displays the per capita emissionsof the 15 countries ranked highest in Table 13.4,illustrating the great disparities in per capita impacton the atmosphere from greenhouse gas emissions,particularly between industrialized and developingcountries.World Resources 1992-93209

13 Atmosphere and ClimateTable 13.5 Relative Per Capita GreenhouseEmissions, 1989Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC)Relative PerCapita Emissions(a)Country14.512.210.59.89.89.38.88.27.87.77.06.56.05.85.85.75.75.65.65.45.45.35.35.25.05.04.74.74.64.64.54.54.34.34.34.33.93.83.73.53.53.53.53.43.43.43.43.33.33.3United Arab EmiratesQatarBruneiBahrainCote d'lvoireLuxembourgUnited StatesAustraliaCanadaTrinidad and TobagoGuinea-BissauKuwaitNorwayEcuadorU.S.S.R.CzechoslovakiaNicaraguaParaguayNew ZealandGabonLiberiaGermany {b}ColombiaMalaysiaSingaporeSaudi ArabiaUnited KingdomPolandJapanIrelandBulgariaBelgiumDenmarkMadagascarFinlandNetherlandsIsraelSouth AfricaRomaniaCosta RicaGreeceIcelandAustriaMyanmarVenezuelaItalyLibyaFranceCameroonPanamaWorld ResourcesRank Country1 United Arab Emirates2 Qatar3 Luxembourg4 Cote d'lvoire56 BahrainUnited States7 Brunei89 AustraliaCanada10 Trinidad and Tobago11 Guinea-Bissau12 Kuwait13 Czechoslovakia14 U.S.S.R.15 Ecuador16 Germany {b}17 Norway18 Nicaragua19 Japan20 Paraguay21 Singapore22 Liberia23 Colombia24 New Zealand25 Malaysia26 Saudi Arabia27 United Kingdom28 Gabon29 Belgium30 Ireland31 Denmark32 Israel33 Poland34 Netherlands35 Finland36 Bulgaria37 Malta38 Madagascar39 Greece40 Austria41 Italy42 South Africa43 France44 Romania45 Iceland46 Sweden47 Costa Rica48 Spain49 Switzerland50 CyprusRelative PerCapita Emissions{a}15.712.410.510.410.29.89.88.88.67.67.27.16.46.26.26.16.16.16.05.95.75.75.65.65.65.55.55.55.45.25.25.15.15.04.94.94.44.44.34.34.24.14.14.03.93.93.83.73.73.7Sources:1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change: TheIPCC Scientific Assessment, J. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums,eds. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 1990).2. Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate," Tables 24.1 and 24.2.Notes:a. 1.00 = world median.b. Data for Germany include both the former Federal Republic of Germany andthe German Democratic Republic.A wide variety of other methods of comparing therelative impact of greenhouse gas emissions from differentcountries have been proposed. Several of theseare summarized in Box 13.3.TARGETS FOR LIMITING EMISSIONSSeveral implications can be drawn from the descriptionof greenhouse gas emissions and their distributionamong the countries of the world given in theprevious section. Clearly, the major contributors to thepotential warming impact of greenhouse gas emissionsinclude both industrialized and developing countries.At the same time, it is equally clear that both thecumulative historical impact and the per capita impactFigure 13.3 Per Capita GreenhouseEmissions for the 15 Countries with theHighest Total Emissions, 1989(per capita greenhouse emissions, world median = 1)10-U.S. China India Germany Mexico Canada France PolandU.S.S.R. Japan Brazil United Indonesia Italy ThailandKingdomSources:1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change: TheIPCC Scientific Assessment, J. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums,eds. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 1990).2. Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate," Tables 24.1 and 24.2.are much higher in industrial countries. Equity considerationsthus suggest that initial efforts at limitingemissions—and proportionately the greatest efforts—must come from industrial countries.The largest single source of greenhouse gas emissionsis CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels and otherindustrial sources. These emissions are also knownwith far greater accuracy than emissions from anyother source of greenhouse gases, making it easier tomonitor compliance with emission limitation agreements.Finally, a variety of options exist for limitingsuch emissions. Conservation, in particular, deservesclose scrutiny, because using less fossil fuel energy toaccomplish the same task translates into lower CO2emissions. Another option would be to switch fromfuels with high carbon content (such as coal) to fuelswith lower carbon content (such as natural gas), or tocarbon-free energy sources. Both of these optionswould be furthered by current proposals to tax CO2emissions or to establish tradable permits for CO2emissions.Table 13.6 gives estimates of national industrial emissionsof CO2 for 50 countries, ranked by emissions.(Data for all countries are given in Table 24.1.) TheUnited States is the largest emitter, followed by theU.S.S.R., China, Japan, Germany, and India. The 12countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development account for 47 percent of theglobal total; the Soviet Union plus Central Europe accountfor 23 percent of the global total. Figure 13.4summarizes per capita emissions for the 15 countriesranked highest in Table 13.6.One other option for limiting CO2 emissions deservesearly attention. Reducing the conversion offorestland to other uses could cut CO2 emissions signif-210World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 13Table 13.6 50 Countries with the HighestIndustrial Emissions of Carbon Dioxide, 1989Rank1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950CountryUnited StatesU.S.S.R.ChinaJapanGermany {a}IndiaUnited KingdomCanadaPolandFranceMexicoSouth AfricaAustraliaCzechoslovakiaKorea, Rep.RomaniaBrazilSpainSaudi ArabiaIran, Islamic Rep.Korea, Dem. People'sIndonesiaYugoslaviaTurkeyNetherlandsArgentinaBulgariaBelgiumVenezuelaEgyptNigeriaThailandGreeceIraqHungaryPakistanSwedenColombiaAustriaFinlandUnited Arab EmiratesMalaysiaDenmarkAlgeriaNorwayPhilippinesPortugalSwitzerlandLibyaTotal CO 2 Emissions(million metric tons)4,869,0053,804,0012,388,6131,040,554964,028651,936568,451455,530440,929389,747357,163319,702278,468257,480226,347221,104212,193206,957203,227173,776166,074151,488137,726132,901126,078124,990118,157106,98998,10495,88779,48379,26377,68070,92068,89864,07660,97358,88853,83151,69951,30050,94449,06147,00946,49246,00940,96040,91239,32637,842Source: Chapter 24, "Atmosphere and Climate," Table 24.1.Note: a. Data for Germany include the former Federal Republic of Germanyand the German Democratic Republic.Figure 13.4 Per Capita Carbon DioxideEmissions for the 15 Countries with theHighest Total Emissions from IndustrialSources, 1989(metric tons of carbon dioxide per capita)25-U.S.S.R. Japan India Canada Italy Mexico AustraliaU.S. China Germany United Poland France South Czecho-KingdomAfrica SlovakiaSource: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory, unpublished data, (CDIAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, August1989.)icantly and would also have other local and global benefits,such as preserving biodiversity (see Chapter 9,"Wildlife and Habitat," Focus On ConservingBiodiversity.) The opportunities for such reductionsoccur almost entirely in developing countries. To realizethese opportunities, however, will in many cases requireattention to the root causes of land clearing,including local poverty, inequities of land tenure, lackof alternative employment, government incentives andsubsidies, and internationally supported developmentschemes that promote misuse of the land. Addressingthese problems on an adequate scale is likely to requireexpanded international goal setting, cooperation,and assistance.The conditions and Trends section of this chapter was written byGregory Mock, a California-based writer. The Focus On section waswritten by Allen Hammond, editor-in-chief of World Resources.References and Notes1. Global Environmental Monitoring System,World Health Organization, and United NationsEnvironment Programme, Global Pollutionand Health (Yale Press, London, 1987),pp. 4-7.2. Asif Faiz, Kumares Sinha, Michael Walsh, etah, Automotive Air Pollution: Issues and Optionsfor Developing Countries, Report No.492 in the Policy, Research and External AffairsWorking Paper Series, The WorldBank, Washington, D.C., 1990, p. xi.3. Claire Holman, Air Pollution and Health(Friends of the Earth, London, 1989), p. 9-12.4. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), National Air Quality and EmissionTrends Report, 1989 (EPA, Washington, D.C.,1991), p. 3-2.5. Global Environmental Monitoring System,United Nations Environment Programme,and World Health Organization, Assessmentof Urban Air Quality (United Nations, London,1988), p. 25.6. Ibid., pp. 11-16 and 26-31.7. Ibid., pp. 12-14.8. Ibid.,-p. 15.9. Op. cit. 1.10. Op. cit. 4, p. 3-24.11. Op. at. 3, pp. 25-27.12. Malcolm W. Browne, "New Tactics Emergein Struggle Against Smog," New York Times(February 21,1989), p. Cl.13. Op. cit. 4, p. 3-24.14. Op. cit. 3,p. 27.15. Op. cit. 5, p. 81.16. United States Environmental ProtectionAgency (EPA), The Clean Air Act Amendmentsof 1990: Summary Materials (EPA,Washington, D.C., 1990), p.2.17. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), National Air Quality and EmissionTrends Report, 1988 (EPA, Washington D.C.,1990), p. 15.18. Op. cit. 2, pp. viii-ix and 11-18.19. Op. cit. 4, p. 3-24.20. Op. cit. 2, pp 19-20.21. Op. cit. 3, pp. 13-14.22. Op. cit. 3, p. 16.23. Op. cit. 2.24. Op. cit. 3, pp. 14-15.25. Op. cit. 5, p. 52.26. Op. cit. 4, pp. 3-15 to 3-17.27. Op. cit. 5, pp. 52-55.World Resources 1992-93211

13 Atmosphere and Climate28. Op. tit.4, pp. 3-15 to 3-17.29. Op. tit. 5, pp. 54-57.30. Op. tit. 3, p. 13.31. Op. tit. 3, p. 13.32. Op. tit.5, p. 58.33. Carl M. Shy, "Lead in Petrol: The Mistake ofthe 20th Century," World Health StatisticsQuarterly, Vol. 43 (1990), p. 168.34. Op. tit. 2.35. Op. tit. 5, p. 58.36. Op. tit. 33, pp. 171,174-175.37. Op. til.5, p.60.38. Op. til. 33, p. 168.39. Op. tit.5, p. 64.40. Op. cit. 2, pp. 22-24.41. Op. tit.16, p. 4.42. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), Cancer Risk From Outdoor Exposure ToAir Toxics, Volume 1 (EPA, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. ES-2.43. Rose Gutfield and Barbara Rosewicz,"Clean-Air Accord Is Reached In CongressThat May Cost Industry $25 Billion a Year,"Wall Street Journal (October 23,1990), p. A2.44. Op. cit. 5, p. 39.45. "The Price of Pollution," Options (InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis,Laxenburg, Austria, September 1990), p.5.46. John McCormick, Acid Earth: The GlobalThreat of Acid Pollution (Earthscan Publications,London, 1989), pp. 15 and 21.47. Henning Rodhe, "Acidification in a GlobalPerspective," Ambio, Vol. 18, No. 3 (1989), p.156.48. Ibid., pp. 155 and 159-160.49. "Evidence of Acid Fog Found on MountOhyama," Japan Times (September 13,1989,Tokyo), n.p.50. "Working Together to Reduce Acid Rain,"Options (International Institute for AppliedSystems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,March 1989), p. 9.51. Op. cit. 45.52. Ursula Falkengren-Grerup, "Soil Acidificationand Its Impact on Ground Vegetation,"Ambio, Vol. 18, No. 3 (1989), pp. 179-180.53. James J. MacKenzie and Mohamed T. El-Ashry, III Winds: Airborne Pollution's Toll onTrees and Crops (World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., 1988), pp. 19-20.54. Ibid., p. 22.55. Op. cit. 45.56. Op. cit. 53, pp. 15-17.57. William K. Stevens, "Researchers Find AcidRain Imperils Forest Over Time," New YorkTimes (December 31,1989), p. 1.58. Op. cit. 45.59. Ellis B. Cowling, "Recent Changes in ChemicalClimate and Related Effects on Forestsin North America and Europe," Ambio, Vol.18, No. 3 (1989), pp. 169-170.60. United Nations Economic Commission forEurope (UNECE), The 1989 Forest DamageSurvey in Europe (UNECE, Geneva, 1990),pp. 12-15.61. Op. cit. 45, p. 4.62. Op. cit. 53, pp. 8-9,16.63. Op. cit. 57.64. Op. cit. 46, pp. 44-48.65. John D. Spengler, Michael Brauer, andPetros Koutrakis, "Acid Air and Health,"Environmental Science and Technology, Vol.24, No. 7 (1990), pp. 946-952.66. Frederick W. Lipfert, Samuel C. Morris, andRonald E. Wyzga, "Acid Aerosols: The NextCriteria Air Pollutant?" Environmental Scienceand Technology, Vol. 23, No. 11 (1989),p. 1317.67. "World Health Unit Says Pollution Remainsa Serious Health Threat in Europe," InternationalEnvironment Reporter (Bureau of NationalAffairs, Washington, D.C., September26,1990).68. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment,Catching Our Breath: Next Steps for ReducingUrban Ozone (U.S. GovernmentPrinting Office, Washington, D.C., 1989),pp. 106-107.69. Op. tit. 3, p. 27.70. Op. cit. 3, pp. 15-16.71. Op. tit.68, p. 107.72. Op. tit. 53, pp. 13-19, 25-32.73. Op. cit. 59, pp. 167-171.74. Op. cit. 53, p. 14.75. Op. cit. 53, pp. 8-9 and 16-17.76. Op. cit. 59, pp. 167-171.77. Op. cit. 53, pp. 25-31.78. James J. MacKenzie, Breathing Easier: TakingAction on Climate Change, Air Pollution, andEnergy Insecurity (World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., 1989), p. 13.79. Op. cit. 67.80. Christer Agren, "With Aim on Ozone," AcidNews, No. 4 (Swedish and Norwegian NGOSecretariats on Acid Rain, Goteborg, Sweden,December 1990), pp. 6-7.81. C. Ian Jackson, "A Tenth Anniversary Reviewof the ECE Convention on Long-RangeTransboundary Air Pollution," InternationalEnvironmental Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 3 (1990),pp. 222-225.82. Op. cit. 46, p. 77.83. Op. cit. 16, p. 5.84. Op. cit. 81, pp. 217-225.85. Op. tit.46, p. 87.86. John C. Beale, Deputy Director, Office ofPolicy Analysis and Review, Air and Radiation,U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, Washington, D.C., 1991 (personalcommunication).87. Op. cit. 45, p. 7.88. Christer Agren, "Unacceptable kms," AcidNews, No. 4 (Swedish and Norwegian NGOSecretariats on Acid Rain, Goteborg, Sweden,December 1990), p. 2.89. Anna-Karin Hjalmarsson, "What the WestGermans Are Doing," Add News, No. 4(Swedish and Norwegian NGO Secretariatson Acid Rain, Goteborg, Sweden, December1990), p. 9.90. Op. cit. 88.91. Anna-Karin Hjalmarsson, "ControllingEmissions," Acid News, No. 4 (Swedish andNorwegian NGO Secretariats on Acid Rain,Goteborg, Sweden, December 1990), p. 8.92. Op. cit. 50.93. Commission of the European Communities(CEO, Energy and the Environment (CEC,Brussels, 1990), pp. 10-12.94. James N. Galloway, "Atmospheric Acidification:Projections for the Future," Ambio, Vol.18, No. 3 (1989), p. 161.95. Op. cit. 5, p. 14.96. Anthony D. Cortese, "Clearing the Air," EnvironmentalScience and Technology, Vol. 24,No. 4 (1990), p. 444.97. Op. cit. 94, p. 166.98. Op. cit. 47, pp. 155-160.99. "RAINS: A Model For Negotiations," Options(International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis, Laxenburg, Austria,September 1990), p. 9.100. Nigel Haigh, "New Tools for European AirPollution Control," International EnvironmentalAffairs, Vol. 1, No. 1 (Winter 1989), pp. 26-37.101. James N. Galloway, Professor of EnvironmentalSciences, University of Virginia,Charlottesville, 1991 (personal communication).102. Op. tit. 46, pp. 192-212.103. Heinz Welsch, "Cost-Effective Control Strategiesfor Energy-Related TransboundaryAir Pollution in Western Europe," EnergyJournal, Vol. 11, No. 2 (1990), p. 93.104. "France Becomes First Nation To Tax AirPollution; Approach Called Reasonable," InternationalEnvironmental Reporter (Bureau ofNational Affairs, Washington, D.C., June1990), p. 228.105. Bryan Lee, "Highlights of the Clean Air ActAmendments of 1990," Journal of the Air andWaste Management Association, Vol. 41, No. 1(January 1991), p. 16.106. Op. cit. 103, p. 89.107. "The Unfinished Business of Acid EmissionControl," ENDS Report, No. 183 (EnvironmentalData Services, London, April 1990),p. 12.108. "Decoupling Energy Consumption FromAir Pollution: A First Short From Brussels,"ENDS Report, No. 179 (Environmental DataServices, London, December 1989), p. 15.109. James J. MacKenzie, Senior Associate,World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., April 1991 (personal communication).110. Op. cit. 46, p. 54-55.111. Op. tit. 91, p. 8.112. Op. tit. 91, p. 9.113. Op. cit. 46, pp. 59-60.114. Op. cit. 78, pp. 19-22.115. Commission of the European Communities(CEC), Energy and the Environment (CEC,Brussels, 1990), pp. 18-19.116. Joan M. Ogden and Robert H. Williams,Solar Hydrogen: Moving Beyond Fossil Fuels(World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1989), pp. 1-3.117. "Managing Earth's Resources" (special section),Business Week (June 18,1990), pp. 6and 31.118. Daniel Ward, "Manufacturers Turn to Pollution-FreeProduction" (special section), FinancialTimes (July 27,1990), p. 5.119. Michael S. Baram, Patricia S. Dillon, andBetsy Ruffle, Managing Chemical Risks: CorporateResponse to SARA Title III (Center for EnvironmentalManagement, Tufts University,Medford, Massachusetts, 1990), p. xiv.120. Op. cit. 117, p. 48.121. Op. cit. 117, pp. 21,31, and 48.122. Op. cit. 119, pp. xii-xiv.123. Deborah L. Bleviss and Peter Walzer, "Energyfor Motor Vehicles," Scientific American,Vol. 263, No. 3 (September 1990), p.103.124. Asif Faiz, "Automotive Air Pollution: AnOverview" (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., December 1990), p. 9.125. Op. cit. 2, p. 1.126. Op. cit. 88.127. Op. cit. 124, p. 8.128. Op. cit. 2, p. viii.129. Kevin Done, "Europe to Tighten Its EmissionStandards," Financial Times (July 27,1990), p. 2.130. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), The Clean Air Act Amendments of1990: Summary Materials (EPA, Washington,D.C., 1990), pp. 3-4.131. Op. tit.96, p. 446.132. Op. cit. 129.133. Op. tit.12.134. Op. cit. 124, pp. 13-14.135. Op. cit. 2, pp. 59-62.136. Op. cit. 96, p. 446.137. Op. cit. 2, p. 23.212WArld Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 13138. Bruce Bertelsen, "Emission Control of DieselFueled Trucks and Buses" (Manufacturersof Emission Controls Association,Washington, D.C., December 1990), pp. 1-3.139. European Economic Community (EEC)Spokesman's Service, "Measures ToCounter Air Pollution by Emissions fromDiesel-Engined Lorries" (EEC, Brussels,May 2,1990), p. 27.140. Op. cit. 2, pp. 75-77.141. U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO), AirPollution: Air Quality Implications of AlternativeFuels (GAO, Washington, D.C., 1990),pp. 17-20.142. Op. cit. 130, p. 3.143. Thomas Hayes, "Shortage of Additive LimitsClean Gasoline," New York Times (April18,1990), p. Dl.144. Op. cit. 141, pp. 8-18.145. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment,Replacing Gasoline: Alternative Fuels forLight-Duty Vehicles (U.S. Government PrintingOffice, Washington, D.C., 1990), pp. 23-24.146. Op. cit. 130.147. "Environmentalists, City RepresentativesDebate Industry Over Cars in UrbanAreas," International Environment Reporter(Bureau of National Affairs, Washington,D.C., July 1990).148. Op. cit. 124, pp. 13-14.149. Op. cit. 2, p. xiii.150. Kenneth Small, Clifford Winston, and CarolEvans, Road Work: A New Highway Pricingand Investment Policy (Brookings Institution,Washington, D.C., 1989), p. 86.151. Marcia D. Lowe, Alternatives to the Automobile:Transport for Livable Cities, WorldWatchPaper No. 98 (Worldwatch Institute, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. 20.152. Ibid., pp. 20-26.153. Ibid., p. 24.154. Op. cit. 2, pp. 91-93.155. Scott A. Hajost, International Counsel, EnvironmentalDefense Fund, Washington,D.C., 1991 (personal communication).156. Scott A. Hajost, International Counsel, EnvironmentalDefense Fund, Washington,D.C., 1991 (personal communication).157. William K. Stevens, "At Meeting on GlobalWarming, U.S. Stands Alone," New YorkTimes (September 10,1991), p. Cl.158. Op. cit. 156.159. Philip D. Jones and Tom M.L. Wigley, "TheGlobal Temperature Record for 1990," DOEResearch Summary, No. 10 (Carbon DioxideInformation Analysis Center, Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee,April 1991).160. Helene Wilson, Staff Scientist, Goddard Institutefor Space Studies, New York, 1991(personal communication).161. Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), Climate Change: The IPCCScientific Assessment, J.T. Houghton, G.J.Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraum, eds. (CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, U.K., 1990),p.xi.162. Ibid.,p.xi163. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming,U.S. Committee on Science, Engineering,and Public Policy (National AcademyPress, Washington, D.C., 1991), p. 73.164. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), Estimation ofGreenhouse Gases and Sinks, final report fromthe OECD Experts meeting, February 18-21,1991, prepared for the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change, revised August1991, pp. 5-28.165. M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen, Ming-XingWang, et al., "Methane Emissions from RiceFields in China," Environmental Science andTechnology, Vol. 25, No. 5 (1991), pp. 979-981.166. Paul J. Crutzen and Meinrat O. Andraea,"Biomass Burning in the Tropics: Impact onAtmospheric Chemistry and BiogeochemicalCycles," Science, Vol. 250 (1990), p. 1672.167. Susan Subak and William C. Clark, "Accountsfor Greenhouse Gases: Towards theDesign of Fair Assessments," in UsableKnowledge for Managing Climate Change, WilliamC. Clark, ed. (Stockholm EnvironmentalInstitute, Stockholm, 1990), p. 73.168. Ibid.World Resources 1992-93213

14. Policies and InstitutionsNongovernmental Organizations:A Growing Force in the Developing WorldAn extraordinarily diverse and growing body of privateorganizations now dot the world's institutionallandscape, working in a variety of areas such as smallscalelocal development, the conservation of tropicalforests, and sustainable agriculture. Working at manylevels, through example or advocacy these groups areinfluencing the direction of environment and developmentpolicy around the world.In the industrialized countries, many of these "nongovernmentalorganizations" (NGOs) are small andwork at the community level; some—particularlythose with a broad mandate—have grown large andprosperous. In the developing world, most of thesegroups are community-based, relatively small, andoften fragile; their chances of failure far outweigh theirchances of success. For many groups in developingcountries, survival depends on the courage and persistenceof a few individuals. In some developing countries,members of such organizations must contendwith the active hostility of the government; in a fewcases, members may be risking their lives.Nevertheless, nongovernmental organizations aregrowing, both in numbers and in influence, especiallyin the developing countries of the South. The reasonsfor this growth are complex: local groups often form inresponse to specific needs (such as the need to improvewater supplies) or incentives (such as new opportunitiesto get bank credit) (l). National groups mayform to fulfill a specific need (such as environmentalprotection), often with the support of Northerngroups. In some cases, ineffective or nonexistent governmentprograms create a vacuum that private organizationsstep into; in other cases, resource-poorgovernments use private organizations as an efficientway to extend their reach.As the links among environment, development, andpopulation become clearer, organizations devoted to asingle issue see the advantages of working with othergroups; development NGOs, for example, may joinwith NGOs advancing entrepreneurship or environmentalprotection or human rights. This trend is fueledby the fast-growing number of national andinternational NGO networks and coalitions, which inturn is helped by rapid advances in communicationstechnology.Most of these groups share a common vision. Theywant to reduce poverty, advance human development,and manage natural resources in a sustainable fashion.World Resources 1992-93215

14 Policies and InstitutionsThey believe that local participation and /or control isimportant to the success of sustainable development.They put less emphasis on growth in production andmore emphasis on involving local people in solvingproblems. (See Chapter 1, "Dimensions of SustainableDevelopment.")Why are these groups important? In developingcountries they can solve some pieces of the developmentpuzzle, perhaps by taking an unusual approachto a development problem, or by listening carefully towhat poor people want and working to enlist their participationand support, or by trying to simultaneouslyfoster development and husband natural resources.NGOs can be a truly independent voice, sometimesserving as a focal point of opposition to governmentprograms; NGO successes can become the models fornew government programs.In the North, and to some extent in the South, NGOscan bring strong pressures on governments to createand implement new policies. They can also work aspartners with governments, although such alliancescarry the risk of dependence on government funds.The character and number of NGOs depend to a significantextent on the approach taken by governments.In the North, governments have learned to live withNGOs as both opponents and proponents of governmentprograms, but many governments in the Southare uncomfortable with NGOs as opponents. NGOscannot, however, compete with governments. Theycannot pass laws, and they do not have the resourcesto manage national programs.The term nongovernmental organization encompassesall organizations that are neither governmentalnor for-profit. What is left is a residual category that includesa vast array of organizations, many of whichhave little in common. They can be large or small, secularor religious, donors or recipients of grants. Someare designed only to serve their own members; othersserve those who need help. Some are concerned onlywith local issues; others work at the national level,and still others are regional or international in scope (2).The organizations that could fit under this giant umbrellainclude savings clubs, squatter associations,communal labor-sharing groups, peasant leagues, villagewater associations, irrigation user groups,women's associations, tribal unions, environmental advocacygroups, consumer and farmer cooperatives,human rights groups, policy analysis centers, laborunions, service clubs such as Kiwanis and Rotary, localdevelopment associations, tenants' associations, privatecolleges or hospitals, private relief organizations,and political action groups (3).No classification system can capture all NGOs, butat different levels of development, a few commontypes emerge:• Grassroots organizations working in villages andurban communities in the developing world. Most ofthese groups are membership organizations devotedto fulfilling the needs of their members.• Service organizations, which support the developmentof grassroots groups. Some are the product of thegrowth of local groups into regional or national federations;other regional and national organizations promoteand support local groups, but are not themselvesmembership organizations.• Regional, national, and international "thematic" organizationsworking in development, human rights, environment,disaster relief, family planning, and similarareas. Such organizations may have a particular emphasis,such as field work, legal defense, or policy research.Some are directly involved in supportingservice organizations. Others provide financial supportto grassroots and service groups.• Regional, national and international networks and coalitionsof NGOs.NGOs are extraordinarily diverse. This chapter providesa few examples to capture some of that diversity,but focuses mainly on the strengths and weaknesses ofNGOs, on the relationship between governments andNGOs, and on some emerging trends. The chapter primarilyconcerns the newly emerging grassroots andservice NGOs in developing countries and thoseNorthern NGOs that work extensively in developingcountries.ORIGINS AND REGIONAL DIFFERENCESNGOs are relatively new international actors. Onlyabout 30 percent of Southern development NGOs aremore than 15 years old, and only 50 percent are morethan 10. Almost all environmental NGOs and mostNGO networks and umbrella groups were started inthe 1980s (4). The role of independent organizations inthe developing world differs greatly from region to regionand among countries within regions. Asia is generallyconsidered to have the largest number of NGOsand the most active involvement of NGOs in policymaking. Latin American NGOs are often critics of governmentpolicies. African NGOs are relatively fragileand generally do not play the same advocacy rolesthat many NGOs adopt in Asia and Latin America.International NGOs have had a strong impact on thedevelopment of national NGOs in the South, especiallyin Africa and some parts of Asia. IndigenousNGOs in Africa are still relatively dependent on internationalNGOs for financial support. A few countries—India, the Philippines, and Brazil, for example—haveautonomous NGO movements based in their urbanmiddle classes.For a variety of reasons—political, economic, andcultural—NGOs still are scarce in many parts of theworld, including China, the Middle East, North Africa,northeastern India, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa (5).Northern NGOs with a Mission in the SouthMany of the early independent organizations in Europeand North America have common threads, suchas missionary activity or the provision of relief to victimsof war or famine.Organizations founded before World War II—theSalvation Army, for example—were generally outgrowthsof missionary activities. During and afterWorld War II, religious and secular organizations—216World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 14Box 14.1 NGOs and the World BankIn 1983, six U.S. environmental organizations,including the National Wildlife Federationand the Natural Resources DefenseCouncil, began to pressure the WorldBank to pay more attention to the environmentalconsequences of its projects. Becausethe World Bank needed annualappropriations and capital replenishmentsthat required U.S. congressional approval,the groups used some two dozen congressionalhearings to make their case againstprojects such as Brazil's Polonoreste roadbuildingand colonization project d).The campaign produced notable results.In June 1986 the United States representativeto the World Bank—citing environmentalreasons for the first time—votedagainst a proposed loan to Brazil. In thesame year, the World Bank announcedplans to enlarge its environment office substantially.Antipoverty groups, noting thesuccess of the environmental campaignand realizing the links between environmentaldegradation and poverty, joinedwith environmentalists to form the DevelopmentBank Assessment Network. Thenetwork has concentrated on pushing thebank to spend more time assessing the impactof its lending on the poor and the environmentand to increase its dialoguewith the potential beneficiaries of bank-financedprojects. Northern groups alsobegan working more closely with Southernantipoverty and environmentalgroups, developing coordinated North-South critiques of World Bank projects (2).Partially in response, the World Bankhas increasingly encouraged the involvementof NGOs in Bank-financed projects.NGOs were involved in about 13 projectsannually between 1973 and 1988, but thatfigure increased to 46 in 1989 and to 50 in1990—nearly one quarter of all projects approvedthat year. The World Bank's patternof collaboration has also changed. Inthe 1973-87 period, the World Bank'sNGO partners tended to be internationalNGOs (43 percent of all projects), followedby indigenous service NGOs (31 percent)and grassroots NGOs (26 percent). In the1988-90 period, partnerships with internationalNGOs had shrunk to 20 percent ofthe total, while projects involving intermediaryNGOs increased to 35 percent andwith grassroots groups to 45 percent (3).Bank-financed projects involving NGOsusually are in areas such as rural or urbandevelopment, population and health, or infrastructure.NGOs have worked primarilyas implementors, but are beginning towork as consultants during the projectplanning stage and in the evaluation process(4).The NGO-World Bank Committee,which is composed of senior Bank managersand 26 NGO leaders from around theworld, was started in 1982 and has been increasinglyactive. The committees focus onhow structural adjustment lending affectsthe poor has evolved into a discussionabout an alternative vision of developmentthat deemphasizes growth in productionand stresses justice, sustainability,and democracy (5).The World Bank's operating proceduresand pace make working with NGOs difficult.In addition, NGOs are used to workingwith grant-giving institutions,whereas the Bank's traditional role is tolend money to governments (6). Nevertheless,NGOs and the Bank have movedthrough a period of conflict to develop aworking—if still adversarial—relationship.References and Notes1. Bruce Stokes, "Storming the Bank," Nationaljournal(December 31,1988), p. 3251.2. Ibid., pp. 3251-3252.3. David Beckmann, "The Bank and NGOs:Recent Experience and Emerging Trends,"draft paper prepared for The World Bank,Washington, D.C., October 26,1990, p. 5.4. David Beckmann, "The World Bank andNGOs: A Growing Partnership," draftpaper prepared for The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1990, pp. 6-10.5. Op. cit. 3, p. 11.6. Op. cit. 3, pp. 19-22.Catholic Relief Services (1943) and CARE (1945), for example—werestarted to provide relief first to people inEurope and later to those in developing nations (6). Inthe United Kingdom, the Oxford Committee for FamineRelief (Oxfam) was started in 1942 to aid starvingcivilians in Nazi-occupied Greece. In 1944, the DanishAssociation for International Cooperation wasfounded to help rebuild war-torn European countries(7). The end of the war did not bring an end to emergencies.The partitioning of India in 1947, the flight ofArabs from Palestine in 1948, and famines in Asia andAfrica were among a long series of events that drewthese organizations into the developing world (8).In the 1960s, many of these agencies began to see theirmission as a mix of relief and development work.Churches started to promote development projects thatwere unrelated to church activities. In 1958, the WorldCouncil of Churches proposed that the indus-trial countriestransfer 1 percent of their national income to the developingcountries for development assistance. TheVatican in the mid-1960s also strongly supported astrengthened commitment to eliminating poverty in thedeveloping world. Protestant churches later were urgedby the World Council of Churches to send 2 percent oftheir resources to developing countries (9).The Food and Agriculture Organization's Freedomfrom Hunger Campaign, which began in 1960, and numerousprograms that sent volunteers overseas (suchas Voluntary Service Overseas in the United Kingdomand the U.S. government-sponsored Peace Corps inthe United States) provided additional impetus for development-relatedwork overseas. Oxfam pioneered directfinancial support for local initiatives; by 1961, ithad decided to move away from financing missionaryorganizations and other northern organizations and tosupport indigenous organizations. As the number ofnongovernmental organizations grew, so too did theneed for consultation among organizations. In 1962,the International Council of Voluntary Agencies(ICVA), an international liaison organization, wasstarted by NGOs concerned with refugees and displacedpersons. ICVA remains an important nondenominationalstructure for consultation among NGOsinternationally (10).In the 1960s and 1970s, new organizations focusedon attacking the root causes of poverty in developingcountries (li). The U.S. Congress created the Inter-American Foundation (IAF) in 1969, followed by theAfrican Development Foundation in 1980. By mid-1991 IAF had provided 3,111 small grants to NGOs inLatin America and the Caribbean (12).In the early 1970s, the World Bank began to focus onthe urgent need to improve income distribution, developaffordable technologies for the poor, promoterural development, and address people's basic education,health, and family planning needs. Other officialWorld Resources 1992-93217

14 Policies and InstitutionsFigure 14.1 Private and Official FinancialContributions to Northern NGOs, SelectedYears, 1970-88(billions of 1986 U.S. dollars)2-— Private Sources Official Sources — Total1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988Source: John Clark, Democratizing Development: The Role of VoluntaryOrganizations {Kumarian Press, West Hartford, Connecticut, 1991), p. 40.donors followed the World Bank's lead (13). ManyNGOs, however, continued to criticize the Bank foremphasizing large development projects that did notdirectly benefit the poor. In the 1980s, this criticism ledto increasing interaction between the institution andNGOs. (See Box 14.1.)Earth Day in the United States in 1970 marked thebeginning of a major spurt in activity and membershipof environmental groups in the United States. As newreports began to surface in the 1980s about global environmentalconcerns such as deforestation, thesegroups increasingly extended their reach into environmentalissues overseas.The Worldwide Fund for Nature and its U.S. affiliate,the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), originally supportedscientific missions overseas. That effort eventuallydeveloped into support for the work of local scientists.By the early 1980s, WWF began developing relationshipswith organizations such as FundacionNatura in Ecuador, and by the late 1980s, WWF was activelypro-viding support to projects in developingcountries (14).Interest in women's issues rose dramatically in themid-1970s, beginning with a conference in Mexico Cityin 1975 marking International Women's Year and continuingwith the United Nations Decade for Women(1976-85) and major conferences in Copenhagen in1980 and Nairobi in 1985. The Decade for Women inspiredthe formation of many new formal and informalwomen's organizations. In the late 1970s and early1980s, northern governments and multilateral agenciesincreasingly worked through nongovernmental organizations,particularly women's groups, in the developingcountries rather than through governments. TheUnited Nations Development Fund for Women (UNI-FEM), established after the Mexico City conference,also increased its work with NGOs in the 1978-84 period(15).By 1989, Northern independent organizations weredistributing an estimated $6.4 billion to the South—about 12 percent of all development aid, public andprivate (16). In terms of net transfers, Northern NGOscollectively distribute more than the World Bank (17).Roughly one third of this total now comes from governmentsources. Since the 1960s, the governments ofthe developed nations have approved partnership arrangementswith nongovernmental organizations forthe distribution and management of government aid(18). By 1988, $1.8 billion (in 1986 dollars) of the annualbudget of all NGOs came from official sources. As Figure14.1 indicates, government donations account formuch of the increase in NGO funds in the past few decades.United Nations agencies have increasingly promotedcommunity development projects by supportingindigenous NGOs and cooperation between governmentsand NGOs. The 1992 United Nations Conferenceon Environment and Development is activelypromoting broad NGO participation. (See Box 14.2.)AsiaAmong the regions of the developing world, SouthAsia has the largest number of independent organizations.India's self-help movement has flourished sinceMohandas Gandhi promoted self-reliant villagesbased on renewable resources. In addition, the colonialpresence, competition among missionary groups, thenationalist movement, and constitutional guaranteesof the right to free speech have all contributed to theproliferation of voluntary groups (19). India now hastens and probably hundreds of thousands of localgroups plus an estimated 12,000 independent developmentorganizations (20). Bombay, Maharastra, andGujarat are the busiest centers of voluntary activity (21).Tax incentives and a long history of religious givingalso have helped support the growth of independentorganizations in India. Charitable trusts such as theTata Trusts are influential. Corporations, spurred bytax incentives, are beginning to fund voluntary organizationsengaged in rural development work (22).Foreign funding of voluntary associations has been asensitive political issue in India; in 1976, the governmentpassed the Foreign Contribution Act, which requiresgroups to obtain government approval beforeaccepting foreign donations and to report donationsfrom non-Indian sources (23).Bangladesh has fostered some especially notable independentorganizations such as the Bangladesh RuralAdvancement Committee (BRAC) and the GrameenBank, which provides very small loans to low-incomeborrowers (24). More than 10,000 national NGOs operatein Bangladesh. Most are small; about 250 receivefunds from foreign sources (25).Indonesia's independent organizations were helpedby a strong indigenous tradition of community groupefforts plus disillusionment with the large-scale,trickle-down development programs of the 1960s and1970s (26). The Indonesian government has maintainedWorld Resources 1992-93218

Policies and Institutions 14Box 14.2 NGOs and the United Nations SystemThe increase in links between Northernand Southern NGOs has been paralleledby similar growth between NGOs and theUnited Nations system. The United NationsConference on Environment and Development(UNCED)—scheduled for June1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil—is acceleratingthat process.NGOs in the past have used U.N. conferencesas forums for alternative conferences.At the 1972 Stockholm conference onthe environment, for example, an NGOparallel conference—under the leadershipof Barbara Ward and Margaret Mead—was particularly influential and garneredmajor press attention (l).The pattern of parallel conferences hascontinued with other U.N. conferences. Increasingly,however, the U.N. system is encouragingparticipation by NGOs in thepreparatory process, and the 1992 conferenceitself may break new ground in thisdirection.The United Nations has devised a systemof formal relationships with NGOs.For example, about 460 NGOs have "consultative"status with the Economic andSocial Council (ECOSOC). The list includesa few environmental NGOs, suchas the World Conservation Union (formallythe International Union for Conservationof Nature and Natural Resources),the Sierra Club, the National Audubon Society,and the World Resources Institute(2). Consultative status gives NGOs theright to attend meetings of ECOSOC andits subsidiary bodies, to submit writtenstatements to them, to testify beforeECOSOC and its committees, and in somecases to propose agenda items forECOSOC consideration.As preparations for the 1992 conferencegot under way, it appeared likely that participationin the preparatory processwould be opened to a relatively broadrange of "relevant" NGOs, not just thosein consultative status, and that an effortwould be made to achieve a balance betweenNGOs with an environment focusand those with a development focus (3).Conference planners hoped for an equitablerepresentation of NGOs from developedand developing countries and fromall regions, but by mid-1991,83 percent ofNGOs planning to attend were from theindustrialized countries (4).NGOs in many countries have been activelyseeking a voice in their countries'preparations for the 1992 conference. Forexample, in Brazil NGOs are trying tobuild the broadest possible coalition ofNGOs with a stake in the conference andare even planning to produce a "state ofthe environment" report on the country,which has not been attempted before inBrazil. Brazilian NGOs are also hoping toplay a major role in linking the official conferenceand the parallel NGO event (5).The Geneva-based Centre for Our CommonFuture plans to organize a worldwideseries of 12 "ECO-92" public forumsbefore the 1992 conference. The first forum,held in August 1990 in Nairobi, coincidedwith the 1992 Preparatory Committee'ssecond session; members of the committeeand the conference secretariat were invitedto speak at the start of the ECO-92 forumand to attend the meetings (6).The 1992 conference also will take fulladvantage of computerized information.The UNCED Information System includesa data base with information on the mainactivities under way before the conferenceand all documentation issued to governments.A global electronic network allowsworldwide electronic access to the UNCEDInformation System using computers andmodems. The UNCED secretariat encourageselectronic conferencing during boththe preparatory process and the conferenceitself (7).OTHER U.N. AGENCIESMany U.N. agencies have relatively longtraditions of cooperation with NGOs. TheUnited Nations High Commissioner forRefugees and the United Nations Fund forPopulation Assistance have both relied onNGOs for project implementation. Duringthe 1969-86 period, the population fundspent about 10 percent of its budget on activitiesimplemented by NGOs. UNICEFalso works extensively with NGOs. Villageand community Rotary clubs, for example,work with UNICEF on the globalimmunization campaign (8).The United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) and the United NationsDevelopment Programme (UNDP) are increasinglyworking with NGOs. UNDP's"Partners in Development Programme,"which operated in 60 countries in 1990,makes small grants ($25,000 per country)to NGOs and grassroots organizations tosupport innovative NGO projects. InRwanda, for example, an NGO received$13,500 for a "cattle bank" to provide animalsfor start-up livestock projects and fortraining (9).UNDP's Sustainable Development Networkis an attempt to identify and link allgovernmental, nongovernmental, grassroots,and entrepreneurial organizationsthat could contribute to sustainable andenvironmentally sound development. Theprogram is operating in all 152 UNDPcountries do).In 1988, UNEP spent $8.6 million to supportNGOs and other intergovernmentalorganizations, including the NairobibasedEnvironmental Liaison Centre, theAfrican NGOs Environmental Network,and the Green Belt Movement. UNEP alsois a key funder of NGOs in the regional assemblieson Women and the Environment,including assemblies in West Asia, LatinAmerica and the Caribbean, and Asia andthe Pacific (ll). Generally taking a positiveapproach to NGOs, UNEP allows them toattend all UNEP meetings and works activelywith them to plan and implementprojects (12).References and Notes1. Arthur Kilgore and Curtis Roosevelt, 'TheNon-Governmental Organizations and theUnited Nations System," in Douglas Williams,The Specialized Agencies and theUnited Nations: The System in Crisis (St.Martin's Press, New York, 1987), p. 266.2. United Nations' (U.N.) Department of PublicInformation, Non-Governmental OrganizationsAssociated with the Department ofPublic Information (U.N., New York, 1990).3. United Nations Preparatory Committeefor the United Nations (U.N.) Conferenceon Environment and Development, "Arrangementsfor the Effective Contributionsof Relevant Non-Governmental Organizationsin the Preparatory Process" (U.N.,New York, August 13,1990), pp. 1-2.4. Sarah Burns, NGO Liaison, Policy Affairs,World Resources Institute, Washington,D.C., 1991 (personal communication).5. "Brazilian Groups Organize for 1992,"NGO Networker (World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., Summer 1990), p.3.6. "Public Forums—ECO-92—To Be Held,"NGO Networker (World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., Summer 1990), p.3.7. United Nations Preparatory Committeefor the United Nations (U.N.) Conferenceon Environment and Development, "TheUNCED Information System," (U.N., NewYork, August 13,1990), p. 2.8. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), Voluntary Aidfor Development: The Role of Nan- GovernmentalOrganizations (OECD, Paris, 1988),pp. 95-96.9. United Nations Development Programme(UNDP), "UNDP/NGO Partners in DevelopmentProgramme" (UNDP, New York,May 15,1990), pp. 1 and 4.10. United Nations Development Programme(UNDP), "Subject: Sustainable DevelopmentNetwork," communication from theadministrator (UNDP, New York, February27,1990), p. 1.11. Joan Martin-Brown, Special Adviser to theExecutive Director, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Washington, D.C.,1990 (personal communication).12. Yusuf J. Ahmad, Senior Adviser to the ExecutiveDirector, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Nairobi, 1990 (personalcommunication).World Resources 1992-93219

14 Policies and Institutionsfairly close control over independent organizations.The ORMAS (Social Organization) Law, passed in1986, requires NGOs to register with the Ministry ofHome Affairs and to get government approval for theappointment of new officers. The law allows local governmentofficials to ban voluntary organizations withouta formal explanation. Aside from the government'sinterest in controlling unofficial agencies, the law alsoreflects official concern about the high percentage ofNGO funds (estimated at 95 percent) that come fromforeign sources. The new law provides that all grantsmust have government approval (27).In the Philippines, the current constitution recognizesthe role of NGOs in the process of development,and President Corazon Aquino has encouraged theirgrowth. Mainly because of the new political freedomsand the failure of the government to halt environmentaldestruction and to carry out fundamental economicchanges such as land reform, NGOs have multiplied inthe Philippines. Most NGOs have acted more as advocatesand lobbyists for specific causes than as partnerswith the government. The NGOs have formed numerousnetworks and coalitions, including sectoral-andissue-based coalitions such as the Congress forPeople's Agrarian Reform (CPAR) and the GreenForum, which is working on sustainable developmentissues. The Caucus of Development NGOs includes 10NGO networks with a membership of more than 1,300NGOs (28). The Manila-based International Institute ofRural Reconstruction, founded in the early 1950s tosupport rural development programs, has six affiliateNGOs and has trained a large core of alumni who nowwork for other rural development NGOs (29).Latin AmericaUntil the mid-1960s, the work of the Catholic churchand other NGOs in Latin America focused chiefly oncharitable relief and welfare, especially transferringfood surpluses from the North (30).Independent organizations diversified in the late1960s and 1970s, as disillusionment with conventionaltrickle-down development led to new groups interestedin strengthening civil society and in supportingsmall-scale local development. Many organizationswere created in reaction to the many authoritarian militaryregimes that held power during the period; particularlyduring the 1970s, NGO activity was highlypoliticized (31). The Catholic church—following VaticanII and a 1968 conference of bishops in Medellin,Colombia—committed itself to social justice. Thismove led to a massive organizational effort at thegrassroots level, with priests and nuns forming NGOsto work with the poor in rural and urban areas (32).Many secular antipoverty organizations also havebeen started (33).The democratization of many Latin American governmentsduring the 1980s bolstered the creation ofnew popular organizations, such as peasant and neighborhoodassociations, as well as new movements supportingethnic groups, women, and the environment.Progressive NGOs often are critics of government policies,but NGO-government relationships gradually areimproving in many countries; cooperative projects arenow relatively common (34).As Southern NGOs have gained strength, they haveinsisted on greater autonomy and less dependence onNorthern supporters. Latin American organizationsalso are eager to coordinate their work with othersthrough national and international networks (35).A recent survey of 1,000 groups in Brazil found that47 percent were independent, 37 percent had churchaffiliations, and the rest were linked to institutionssuch as universities. Nearly all the organizations werestarted either in the 1970s (35 percent) or 1980s (55 percent).Formal regulation of these groups is minimal,nor have governments attempted to limit their freedomof speech. Their greatest institutional weaknessappears to be their reliance on foreign sources of support(36).Fundraising has proven difficult for groups in Braziland other countries where volatile economies andfears of inflation inhibit donations by both individualsand corporations. In addition, philanthropy is not awell-established tradition in Latin America (37).In Central America, the 1980s were a period of civilunrest and economic decline characterized by foodshortages, droughts and other natural disasters, largescalemigration to cities, and drastic cuts in government-providedsocial services. Local NGOs survivedwith the help of Catholic and Protestant clergy and laypersons, international NGOs, and donor agencies. Thecontinuing need to provide food aid tended to delaythe evolution of local NGOs from relief to developmentagencies (38).AfricaThough less numerous than in Asia and Latin America,independent organizations are nevertheless importantin Africa. During the colonial period, churchesand missionary societies were the principal providersof health and education services, especially in ruralareas. Late in the colonial period, ethnic welfaregroups, professional associations, and separatistchurches were started, often to contest the authority ofcolonial rulers (39). Churches, which generally remainedneutral during independence struggles andemerged from the colonial period with weak politicallegitimacy, have large popular followings nonethelessand have expanded their activities to include supportfor women's groups, environmental protection, agriculturalproductivity, and antipoverty efforts (40).Community self-help has a strong tradition in manyAfrican countries, including Zimbabwe, Senegal,Kenya, and Burkina Faso (41). Since independence,local NGOs have greatly increased their involvementin environment/development work and the deliveryof basic services. Much of this activity has been in responseto difficulties African governments have experiencedin delivering services and fighting poverty (42).International voluntary organizations, working inareas such as food relief and the delivery of healthservices, have continued to maintain an active and220World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 14sometimes dominant—some would argue too dominant—presencein Africa (43).STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSESStrengths of Grassroots OrganizationsGroups at the grassroots level can provide memberswith greater financial and negotiating leverage thanthey would have individually. Local NGOs also canprovide a public voice for members' views.Mobilizing Collective ActionAn important strength of many grassroots/communitygroups is their ability to organize around economicgoals and make economic gains for theirmembers. Local NGOs can provide sources of credit,production inputs, marketing services, technical support,education, health, and other services in ways thatare relatively efficient and accountable (44).The dairy farmers of Durazno, Uruguay, for example,traditionally had to take their milk into the city onsmall wooden carts and spend the morning making deliveries.Those who did not go into the city would sellto a middleman at his price.With the help of an Inter-American Foundationgrant, the dairy farmers formed a cooperative—theSociedad de Fomento Rural (Rural Improvement Society)—andbuilt a milk processing plant to pasteurizeand package milk in Durazno. The plant has helpedprovide the farmers with a stable income and easier accessto credit. The society, now one of Uruguay's mostsuccessful cooperatives, also includes farmers who producegrain, wool, meat, and vegetables. The societyalso runs a store that sells seed and farm supplies, operatesfacilities for drying and milling grain, and rentsfarm machinery (45) (46).The Savings Development Movement (SDM) ofZimbabwe encouraged rural villagers to save moneyfor local investment. The approach was simple: peoplein a rural neighborhood deposited small amounts ofhousehold money into a joint savings account at thenearest thrift institution. Within a year the group usuallyhad enough money to place a bulk order for seedand fertilizer. Groups organized collective work partiesand some diversified into agroprocessing and consumerstores or built community wells and dams. By1984, SDM had expanded dramatically to 5,700 clubsnationwide, with a total membership of about 250,000and a small national staff. The overwhelming majorityof members were women, who traditionally had fewrights to control assets independently of their husbands(47).Eventually the government became suspicious of themotives and accountability of the SDM leadership,however, and installed its own candidates on theboard. The long-term results of this change remain tobe seen (48).The village of Wuro-Sogi in Senegal, after experiencingsevere hardship following the drought of 1973,started a community development association thatpooled its funds to build a community water system.SERGIO SOLANO, INTER-AMERICAN FOUNDATIONIn Costa Rica, the Asociacion de los Nuevos Alquimistas (ANAI)provides materials and assistance to villagers to establish a communitytree nursery. Women and children are active participants inmost tree nursery projects.Soon other projects were undertaken: a millet mill forwomen, a village pharmacy, and a communal vegetablegarden managed by women.The Wuro-Sogi village association also illustrates theability of some private organizations to make connections.The association is linked with a federation offarmers' associations of Senegal (FONGS), has abranch in Dakar that looks after relations with governmentservice agencies, and a branch in Paris managedby emigrants (49).A Voice for Grassroots InterestsLocal organizations that grow into larger structurescan become effective political and economic forces. Forexample:• The Oaxaca Food Council Coordinating Network inMexico is a coalition of democratically run ruralpeasants' organizations; it represents about 1.4 millionlow-income rural consumers in negotiations with astate-owned food trading company and has considerableinfluence over the distribution of food and otherresources in the area (50).• In India, a coalition of NGOs has worked with local organizationsrepresenting 90,000 people who were to bedisplaced by construction of the Narmada dams. Thecoalition challenged the technical analysis used by theWorld Resources 1992-93221

14 Policies and Institutionsgovernment in support of the project, encouraged theWorld Bank to follow its own procedures for environmentalimpact analysis, testified in the U.S. Congress,and organized demonstrations of thousands of peopleall over India (51) (52). By mid-1991, construction wascontinuing, but the World Bank had appointed an independentcommission to review the project (53).• By 1988, the National Farmers Association ofZimbabwe, which was built on village-level clubs ofsmall farmers for the bulk ordering of farm suppliesand marketing of produce, had a dues-paying membershipof more than 70,000 farmers and was a powerfulforce in shaping Zimbabwe's farm policies (54).Weaknesses of Grassroots OrganizationsLocal organizations are usually small in scale and maytherefore have limited impact and little interest in scalingup their activities or influencing government strategiesfor poverty alleviation. Furthermore, they mayhave relatively weak managerial skills and little abilityto provide highly technical services.Local groups are often confronted by obstacles beyondtheir control. Farmers who successfully startgrowing vegetables may be unable to get a truck tomarket their produce; or squatters who have gainedphysical control over a piece of land may be unable toget municipal services without legal title to the land.To cope with such problems, local groups may forgealliances with service groups (55).The survival and growth of local groups also maydepend on public policies, such as laws that governthe formation and operation of grassroots organizations,the allocation of credit to the poor by the bankingsystem, and the structure of educationalopportunity (56).Strengths of Service OrganizationsService organizations support the development ofgrassroots groups. Some arise from a coalition of localgroups, others are regional, national, or international.Studies of successful service groups have found thatthey are relatively effective at reaching the poor, mobilizinglocal resources, delivering services, and solvingproblems.Reaching the PoorService groups have been more effective at reachingthe poor who have some assets and less effective atreaching the very poor with few or no assets. As onestudy points out, "the provision of credit, irrigation, ormarket outlets to small farmers is easier than the provisionof land, farming skills, and confidence to the landless"(57).A study of 30 successful Latin American intermediaryorganizations found that they generally benefitedthe "middle poor," those in the third and fourth quintileof the income spectrum, but that many poor householdswere indirect beneficiaries. Most of the programsrun by these organizations involved small semicommercialagriculture that required access to someland, but the poorest rural workers generally were occasionalworkers or squatters with no land. Such programstended to bring forward people who were moreexperienced, active, and willing to take risks, whichalso reduced participation of the poorest. Cultural preservation,literacy, ethnic defense, and rural health programstended to have the widest poverty reach; otheractivities such as marketing and small-farm diversificationtended to benefit primarily the middle poor (58).Service organizations that do not initially work withthe very poor may eventually reach this group. For example,the service group Cinci wa Babili in northernZambia developed a scheme to breed and train oxen,teach farmers how to use oxen to cultivate land, andprovide credits for the purchase of oxen and equipment.The program initially appealed mostly toslightly larger farmers. The poorest farmers, includingwomen, responded after seeing the positive experienceof the larger farmers and after watching a ploughingcompetition Cinci organized in 1987 (59).A few service organizations have succeeded in helpingthe very poor. The Society for Promotion of AreaResource Centres (SPARC) in Bombay, India, for example,was founded by a group of middle-class professionalsto help the city's female pavement-dwellersgain better housing. As part of the effort to help thepavement women, SPARC arranged a workshop onhousing design and construction that concluded withan exhibition of four low-cost model houses designedin large part by the women. The exhibit attracted theattention of municipal and World Bank officials. TheWorld Bank offered some land in a distant suburb, butSPARC hesitated to accept because a move would costfamilies their jobs and sink them further into poverty.Despite the delays in the resettlement effort, SPARChelped build new confidence among female pavementdwellersand enabled them to make their voices heardfor the first time (60).ParticipationEffective service organizations rely on the active participationof the beneficiaries. Participation is critical tothe durability of a project; for example, a project thatseeks to introduce a new technology will usually getplenty of takers for the new machines. Whether thesemachines are used effectively and maintained properly,however, may depend on discussions with thebeneficiaries to see that the technology really respondsto their needs.Another important component of participation is acommitment by beneficiaries to invest their own resourcesin the project. For example, the Asociacion delos Nuevos Alquimistas (ANAI) is a professionally ledservice organization working in one of Costa Rica'spoorest and most isolated districts. Because theregion's resources have been threatened by deforestationand uncontrolled settlement, ANAI has tried topromote a low-resource agriculture that requires fewchemical inputs and is ecologically sustainable. In itstree nursery and other projects, ANAI has stressed theuse of locally available resources, avoided the use ofsophisticated concentrates or fertilizers, and chosen222World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 14only tree species that can survive with local resources(61). ANAI's nursery program requires beneficiaries tocontribute land, materials, and labor as a preconditionto receiving seeds and technical assistance (62).An effective strategy to build participation and confidencein the work of a service organization may be tobegin with projects for which there is a clear local demand,even though the project may not fit with the servicegroup's priorities. In one case, CIPCA, a Peruviantraining organization, became active in some Peruvianvillages by responding to a request for assistance instaffing and equipping some rural health clinics, eventhough that was not CIPCA's field of expertise (63).Such a strategy entails risks, however, because theNGO may not have the proper skills.The participation of local groups can be critical tothe success of development projects. Local groups canhelp provide better information about local needs,help adapt programs to local conditions, provide opportunitiesfor better communication, help mobilizelocal resources, improve the odds that use and maintenanceof facilities will be sustained, and improve cooperationwith local people who can benefit from theinnovation (64).An examination of 25 agriculture and rural developmentprojects financed by the World Bank found thatparticipation by beneficiaries was a key factor for the12 projects that achieved long-term economic sustainability.In the Muda irrigation project in Malaysia, thesuccessful development of water users' associationsproved critical for the project's long-term success. Incontrast, the Hinvi Agricultural Development Projectin Benin failed, largely because the network of cooperativescreated to support the project was run by a parastatal(state-owned enterprise) with no self-managementdelegated to the farmers. Within seven years, 75percent of the farmers had pulled out of the system (65).Alternative Approaches to ProblemsAdministrative flexibility, small size, and relative freedomfrom political constraints make it easier for successfulservice organizations to try innovative solutionsto problems (66).For example, Gram Vikas in India has worked withtechnology centers and state banks to build more than20,000 family and village biogas plants. The plants reducethe need for scarce fuelwood, provide fertilizerfor farming and forestry, and improve the quality oflife for women. Gram Vikas's costs are a fraction ofgovernment costs for similar plants (67).In the Yatenga area of Burkina Faso, groups of farmersworking with Oxfam perfected a technique to rebuilddesertified soils by constructing stone lines alonghill contours to retain water and increase infiltration.The technique, which has increased yields by 50 percentin some cases, is being spread by a regional federation(Naam) and has been adopted by the governmentas part of its land rehabilitation program (68).The Kenya Energy and Environment Organizations(KENGO) realized in the early 1980s that forestry programslargely ignored indigenous trees in preferenceto exotic varieties, which in most cases were not aswell suited to Kenya's ecology. KENGO began an ambitiousinformation program on the use of indigenoustree species in Kenya, including a directory of treesand seeds in Kenya and booklets on the collection andstorage of seeds. The information was published inlocal newspapers, distributed in workshops, andbroadcast on a weekly radio program in English andKiswahili (69).Weaknesses of Service GroupsMost studies of NGOs have looked at successful organizations;less is known about organizations or projectsthat failed and the reasons for those failures.Unlike their successful counterparts, many serviceNGOs that fail do not reach the poor, are not innovative,and are as rigid as government departments. Inaddition, some service NGOs have been criticized forhaving limited technical capacity for complex projects,for an inability to replicate successful projects on alarger scale, for a limited ability to sustain themselvesafter initial outside help is withdrawn, and for relativelyweak managerial and organizational skills (70).Service NGOs often do not benefit the very poor,and in many cases, grassroots participation, especiallyon the part of women, may be limited. A study of 75NGO projects found that what was often termed participationwas in practice a form of decentralized decisionmaking still dominated by NGO staff and localelites, and that local elites often received a disproportionateshare of benefits (71).Many projects may be conceived with little thoughtgiven to what the next step should be. Long-term planningis difficult for many Southern NGOs because oftheir dependence on limited project grants from Northernpartners (72). NGO programs may have little coordinationwith other projects in the same country andlittle relationship to state strategies (73). (Some NGOs,of course, deliberately bypass state strategies they oppose.)NGO projects that bypass state structures may rapidlydeteriorate if the donor NGO pulls out. Approachesthat concentrate on local development mayignore the need to establish viable administrative structuresto provide a framework for local efforts (74).Self-Evaluation and AccountabilityThe documentation of NGO project experiences isoften "irregular, subjective, and geared more to fundraisingthan to institutional learning," according toone report. Assessments made by observers in thefield are rarely documented by headquarters staff andmay be lost when the observers leave. Program prioritiesmay change considerably as staff change. Northerndonors, sensitive to the need to let southern NGOsrun their programs, are reluctant to insist on independentmonitoring and evaluation. Once a project is completed,few funding NGOs pay much attention to itsimpact or whether it provided any lasting benefits.Monitoring efforts rarely use nearby communities not affectedby the project as a control or as baseline data (75).World Resources 1992-93223

14 Policies and InstitutionsPart of the evaluation problem is that NGO projectsfrequently have multiple, diffuse goals that maychange over time. Such variables as morale and participationcan also be difficult to measure (76). In addition,action-oriented NGOs may not have the time, funds,or inclination for evaluation work.Managerial and Technical CapacityService NGOs frequently suffer from high staff turnoverand weak managerial and technical capacity.Many Southern NGOs, for example, have little experiencein financial planning and budgeting, accounting,personnel management, information systems, fundraising,and grant administration (77).Northern donor NGOs may be concerned about theproportion of funds spent by Southern partner groupson administration, but show less concern about thecompetence, training, or experience of the staff. DonorNGOs may watch carefully to ensure that funds gowhere they are supposed to go but be less concernedabout the actual effectiveness of the projects they aresupporting (78).Management training services are provided by a fewNGOs, including the Asian Non-Governmental OrganizationsCoalition for Agrarian Reform and Rural Development(ANGOC) in Manila, Bina Swadaya in Indonesia,and the Thai Volunteer Service in Thailand (79).KEY ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORSGetting Started, Getting BiggerOrganizations can multiply an initial success by growingbigger and expanding beyond the communitylevel or by creating similar organizations that work inother communities under central leadership. They canalso have wider impact by being separately duplicatedelsewhere.Many factors—isolation, the uniqueness of local situations,or a lack of energy and motivation—may restrainthe growth potential of small projects. Furthermore,some projects that work on a small scale maysimply not work on a larger scale (80), or may be bettersuited to duplication than expansion. The GrameenBank in Bangladesh expanded by duplicating the creationof small credit groups, for example (81).At the grassroots level a few projects that were carefullymatched to a regional culture have grown rapidly.In the Yatenga region of Burkina Faso, naamtraditionally referred to a temporary sharing of tasksby young people for common activities such as feasts.Revived by a Burkina Faso sociologist, the Naammovement initially organized young people andwomen—but eventually entire villages—to undertakea variety of community projects, including buildingditches and small dams, constructing wells, land-shapingto control erosion, maintaining communal forests,and making fuel-efficient ovens. About 100 Naamgroups were operating in 1973; by 1987 the numberhad grown to more than 2,500 (82).Another notable example of an NGO that now operateson a large scale is the Bangladesh Rural AdvancementCommittee (BRAC), which grew from a small relieforganization set up in 1972 to become one of thelargest NGOs in the world, with a staff of more than2,000 (83). BRAC focuses on the poorest 50 percent ofvillage populations. It organizes groups of 20-30 peoplewith similar backgrounds and encourages them toanalyze and seek solutions to their own problems.Landless laborers have been organized to lease land,women's groups to undertake paddy processing, andfishermen to buy boats with BRAC providing credit.Initial groups are expected to form other groups in thevillage. As leaders are identified, they are brought toBRAC training centers to learn organization methods(84). Realizing the need for skilled middle managers,BRAC's leadership actively recruits the most promisingBangladeshi graduates for a program of field workand training that creates a management base (85).Some types of projects—particularly credit, marketing,and educational projects—appear to have strongpotential for expansion. In Paraguay, for example, theCentro Paraguayo de Cooperativistas (CPC) has extendedits rural development program from one localarea to six regions. After starting with a base of localcommittees, CPC then builds multivillage committeesand eventually regional marketing organizations withconsumer stores, processing facilities, agriculturalcredit, and technical assistance (86).Good projects also have a better chance of scaling upin countries or regions with active NGO networks atall levels, where promising projects can quickly receiveattention. Scaling up also seems to be associatedwith less centralized, more democratic governments,especially when NGO staff move into government positions,as has happened in Chile, Brazil, and elsewhere(87).The Impact of LeadershipCharismatic leadership may prove essential in theearly stages of an organization's formation, when initialaspirations need to be defined (88).The leadership qualities needed to begin an organization,however, are not always the same qualitiesneeded to sustain it as it becomes a mature institution.For example, one Latin American organization initiallyconfronted landlords and local politicians and laterbuilt a staff of more than 100 people providing a widerange of credit, marketing, and training services. Afterfive years of growth, however, the organization founditself plagued by conflicts between the founder andthe staff he had recruited. As it matured, the organizationneeded a less confrontational leader who could negotiatewith other agencies, supervise the many operationaldetails of the program, and manage theorganization's personnel (89).Such organizations often make a transition fromcharismatic leadership to managerial leadership. Thenew leaders tend to be pragmatic, concentrating on organizationalstability, operating procedures, and trainingstaff. Their first concern, according to the article,"tends to be the bottom line rather than seizure of themoral high ground" (90).224World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 14The Role of WomenThough examples abound of women organizing to advancetheir interests, many NGOs have not integratedwomen into their programs. At least three reasons explainthis failure: institutional legacies, cultural constraints,and competition for scarce financial resources(91).Both the relief agencies started in the 1940s and1950s and the newly emerging NGOs of the past fewdecades have tended to view women solely in their domesticroles. In Latin America, the Catholic churchplayed a major role in the development of grassrootsefforts to fight poverty, but the Church's efforts didnot envision a changed role for women. Moreover, althoughmany NGOs have tried to work within theframework of local cultures, those cultures are oftenhighly patriarchal and view the role of women primarilyin terms of home and family. Finally, competitionfor scarce financial resources has often meant thatfunds intended for women's projects are diverted andused for other purposes (92).NGO projects often do not sufficiently involvewomen in planning and decision making, may add totheir workload but do little to improve their productivity,and may not address women's real economic rolesor enhance their potential leadership and managementskills (93).Women's NGOsPartly in consequence, many new NGOs exclusivelyfor women have been started.Like most local organizations, women's organizationstend to have limited financial resources, limitedorganizational and technical expertise, and limited accessto the networks that allocate resources and knowhow.They may often lack institutional clout, which isreflected in the small size of projects and the difficultyof raising funds (94).Despite these impediments, women's groups havebeen effective in reaching poor women, encouragingwomen's participation in decision making, teachingtechnical and managerial skills, allowing poor womento develop skills and confidence without male competition,providing access to resources, raising women'sawareness of gender issues, and building their self-confidence.Women are organizing to cope with tasks such asproviding water and fuel; growing crops; and generatingincome from food processing, handicrafts, and similaractivities (95). For example:• The villagers of Saye, in the Yatenga plateau inBurkina Faso, talked for years of building an earthendam to catch the rainy season waters and hold theminto the next dry season. Frustrated by the men's inactionand unwilling to continue carrying water overlong distances, the village women organized and builtthe dam (96).• The Kenya Water for Health Organization (KWAHO),a consortium of NGOs established to respond towomen's self-help efforts for water and sanitation 25improvements, organized a cooperative program inSAM OUMA, PANOS PICTURESWith the help of the Kenya Water for Health Organization, thesewomen operate and maintain a simple, safe water system.the Kwale District south of Mombasa to train womento build and maintain simple water systems. Cooperationbetween project staff and the community was developedby five female extension workers through aprocess of village-level decision making. The pilot projectwas so successful it was extended through the entiredistrict (97).• In Khirakot, a small village in Uttar Pradesh in northernIndia, women who collected fuelwood from thesurrounding community forests also carefully managedthe forests. When a Kanpur contractor obtained alease for soapstone mining in the hills, the women inthe village realized that the mining would block theiraccess to the forests and that mine debris could kill theforests. The women protested in court, and the mineswere officially closed (98).• The Green Belt Movement in Kenya, which wasstarted by environmentalist and women's rights advocateWangari Maathai, encourages people to find publicareas and plant tree seedlings to form tree belts. By1989, the movement claimed to have established 670World Resources 1992-93225

14 Policies and Institutionscommunity tree nurseries and planted some 10 milliontrees in 1,000 tree belts. Some 50,000 Kenyan womenhave been involved in the campaign (99).GOVERNMENT-NGO RELATIONSGovernment-NGO relations are complex and varyconsiderably from country to country. In many cases,NGOs have had considerable impact on governments,either by offering models for new government programs,proposing reforms of existing policies, or critiquingproposed government policies. In some cases,NGOs have focused opposition to government policies,even to the point of organizing demonstrations orusing more confrontational tactics.The relationship between governments and NGOs—often determined by the degree to which governmentstolerate and encourage NGOs—is a strong determinantof NGO activity in a country.Government-NGO relations hinge on several factors,including the fitness of the government, the typeof political system, and the type and location of particularNGO projects. Relations are likely to be best, accordingto one author, where "a confident and capablegovernment with populist policies meets an NGO thatwishes to pursue mainstream development programsin a nation's heartland." Relations are likely to beworst "where a weak and defensive government witha limited power base meets an NGO that seeks to promotecommunity mobilization in a contested borderarea" (loo).The content of NGO projects also influences the responseof governments. In developing countries, governmentsuniversally regard noncontroversial projectssuch as child immunization or clean water programs asdesirable, but may not warmly welcome NGOs workingin areas such as basic human rights advocacy (101).Invariably, tension exists between the government'sinterest in controlling NGO activities and the NGOs interestin maintaining organizational autonomy. Governments,for example, may seek to manage the NGOsector by passing laws requiring NGOs to register andregularly report on their activities; by intervening inNGO activities in order to coordinate national developmentplanning; by coopting NGO activity through thecreation of "quangos" (quasi-NGOs, or publicly sponsoredNGOs that are organizational affiliates of a governmentministry), or by involving NGOs in governmentpolicymaking or other official functions; or by restrictingor forcibly closing NGOs judged to be workingagainst the government's interest. Governmentfunding of NGO programs—or government controlson funding by external donors—can be used to reducethe autonomy of NGOs (102).NGOs, on the other hand, can maintain autonomyby, for example, keeping a low profile and working inremote areas that are not actively monitored by governmentadministrators or by selectively collaboratingwith other NGOs to increase their stature (103). Pressurefrom international development financing agenciesto accept the work of NGOs also has providedthem with some protection (104).Many governments often are nervous about the highlevel of foreign support for indigenous NGOs. To controlforeign donations, governments such as Indonesiarequire government approval for all foreign grants; requestscan be turned down without explanation. In response,some NGOs have tried to bolster their independenceby raising funds from local donors and findingnew ways to generate income, such as sellingreports or services (105).Even governments with long histories of workingwith NGOs are occasionally uneasy about the relationship.India, for example, has recently debated a proposedcode of conduct for NGO workers (106).Gaining InfluenceSome NGOs now play major roles in shaping publicpolicy. For example, the National Farmers' Associationof Zimbabwe has participated in annual commodityprice negotiations with the government's AgriculturalMarketing Authority, developed a data base on smallfarmers' costs of production, and been recognized bythe government as the official voice for all low-incomefarmers in the communal and resettlement areas of thecountry (107).Examples of NGOs' influence on public policyabound. In Uruguay, FUNDASOL was so effective inproviding credit to rural cooperatives that changeswere made in the credit practices of the Bank of the Republic.In Peru, PROTERRA's land titling activities inthe Lurin Valley influenced the government to passnew laws to distribute agrarian reform lands (108). TheAmul Dairy cooperative in India provided the modelfor the Indian government's National Dairy DevelopmentProgram, known as "Operation Flood" (109).NGOs substantially revised and improved the impactsof an urban development project in the Manila area.An NGO called ZOTO initially led the challenge to theplans drawn up by Philippine government agenciesand the World Bank and eventually served as part ofan advisory council on the project (110).NGOs also can build coalitions to create or implementnew policies. In the Philippines, the InternationalInstitute for Rural Reconstruction worked with UNI-CEF, local school teachers, and officials of the Ministryof Education to create a program that trained studentsin biologically intensive gardening. The programhelped increase the capacity of poor families to feedthemselves from small plots and has become a modelfor school programs nationwide (ill).Many NGOs also are using the legal system successfully.In Malaysia, the local Friends of the Earth andthe Consumers Association of Penang won a suitagainst a Japanese company that was mining rareearths and polluting the waterways. In Sri Lanka,NGOs halted the construction of a coal-powered utilityin Trincomalee after showing flaws in the company'seconomic appraisal and proving that the teamthat drew up the proposal had not visited the area (112).NGOs can be effective in demonstrating innovationson which improved policies can be based. FundacionNatura in Ecuador paved the way for a $10 million226World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 14debt-for-nature program to pay for high-priority parksand reserves. The organization is also forming a regionalTropical Rainforest Network to formulate ajoint policy document to present to governments andto the International Timber Trade Organization (113).Confrontation: Risks and RewardsWhen other options to effect change seem closed off,groups have used the risky strategy of confrontationwith government authority to call attention to their issues.Confrontational tactics can have dramatic resultsand have been an important tactic in major socialchange movements such as Gandhianism in India andthe 1960s U.S. civil rights movement. However, groupswho use such tactics must be prepared to risk repression,imprisonment, and even the death of members.One of the best-known current practitioners of confrontationtactics is Greenpeace, an international NGOthat uses aggressive nonviolent tactics to protest thekilling of marine mammals and the dumping of nuclearwaste at sea. Protest tactics proved so effectivethat in 1985 the French government sent agents toNew Zealand to blow up the group's flagship, theRainbow Warrior.Confrontations often continue for years, with a seriesof victories and defeats on both sides, before anoutcome is reached. Recent examples of confrontationaltactics include these:• From 1987 to 1989, more than 125 members of a nomadicrainforest tribe, the Penan, were arrested forblockading logging roads into their Malaysian homeland.The tribe started the Penan Association to organizePenan communities (114).• Ten women from North Sumatra were sentenced to sixmonths in prison for destroying thousands of eucalyptustrees planted by a logging company in January1989 on land the women claimed belonged to their village(115). In 1990, hundreds of villagers attempted toreoccupy lands appropriated by a state-owned loggingcompany, PTP VII, which had failed to replace theland with similar irrigated cropland in accordancewith a 1968 agreement (116).• In Indonesia and India, villagers have protested theflooding of their land for large dam projects. InKedung Ombo, Indonesia, the government agreed toresettle in a nearby village 440 families who refused tomove from their homes to a distant town with less fertileland (117).Working with GovernmentsIn recent years, many governments have increasinglywelcomed the participation of environment/developmentNGOs. With the rise of new democracies in LatinAmerica, for example, many new collaborative initiativeshave been launched, sometimes by NGOs butmainly by the new governments seeking new approachesto development (118). Instances of NGOs actingas subcontractors for government programs orcollaborating with government ministries seem to beon the upswing in many countries.MIGUEL SAYAGO, INTER-AMERICAN FOUNDATIONAPROTERRAre, wresentative surveys 's land in Peru's Lurin Valley.PROTERRA has helped farmers secure landtitles.NGOs with established programs can be an effectiveoutlet for government support. For example:• A program of informal education and training forstreet children, developed by the Undugu Society inNairobi, has been so successful that it now receivesgovernment financial support, and the curriculum forits basic education school has been formally recognizedby the government (119).• A program coordinated by KENGO to develop, test,and produce the Kenya Ceramic Jiko cookstoveproved so effective that the Ministry of Energy becameinvolved in organizing the training of artisans and theconstruction of demonstration centers (120).• The Fondo Nacional de Habitaciones Populares(FONHAPO), a low-income housing authority createdby the Mexican government with support from theWorld Bank, used NGOs to help open up credit to barrioassociations, cooperatives, and community groups.FONHAPO also gave local groups considerable powerin the design and development of low-cost housing.FONHAPO's efforts met with mixed success but didincrease the incentives for local people to become betterorganized (121).• FIDENE/UNIJUI, an NGO associated with a universityin Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, developed an effectivemethod for organizing and educating poor peasants.Government agencies asked the group to startpopular education movements in other parts of thecountry because the group had better outreach, and insome cases greater legitimacy, in those regions (122).NGOs also can help extend thin government resourcesby organizing their clientele to receive extensionservices in a group setting, by traininggovernment field workers, and by integrating theirprograms with government programs (123). The newgovernment of Peru, for example, asked a coalition ofWorld Resources 1992-93227

14 Policies and InstitutionsBox 14.3 Political Symbolism and the Urban Popular Movement in MexicoAided by increasingly affordable miniaturizedhardware, and greater user friendliness of database technology, NGOs are becoming importantconduits for the transmission of informationto poor people. According to SheldonAnnis, formerly a fellow at the Overseas DevelopmentCouncil and now a professor at BostonUniversity, the trend is especially evident inbetter developed and urban areas,Annis also argues—in a paper presented tothe World Conference on Education for All atJontien, Thailand, in March 1990—that communicationis increasingly decentralized and"deprofessionalized." He illustrated the pointwith an example from Mexico City after the1985 earthquake, when a coalition of earthquakevictims and neighborhood organizationslobbied the government and the World Bank toaccelerate the rebuilding process. The followingis adapted from that paper CO.THE POWER OF INFORMATIONIn general, the better developed and moreurban the context, the more likely that thepoor are able to incorporate and benefitfrom the power of information. The"urban popular movements" that are nowa familiar part of the Latin American landscapefunction, in large measure, by theircapacity to spread information, channelanger, and generate shared political purpose.During the past recessionary decade,urban popular movements have regularlymobilized thousands—even hundreds ofthousands—of people in the streets ofLatin America.In one case that I have studied—themovement arising in the aftermath of theMexico City earthquake of 1985—hundredsof thousands of earthquake victims(joined by non-poor earthquake victims,as well as nonvictim poor) joined to createa remarkable movement that forced thegovernment and the World Bank togreatly accelerate the process of housingreconstruction.Within days [of the quake], a coalition oforganizations formed and successfullyDANIEL MENDOZA, IMAGENLATINAMexican NGOs created Superbarrio, a good-natured, appealing folk hero, to inspire thepeople to confront government officials and demand improved housing conditions. Herehe leads a demonstration of mothers and children in Mexico City's central plaza.united earthquake victims and scores ofneighborhood organizations. Throughdeft manipulation of the media and politicalbartering, the coalition pressured andwrested innumerable concessions from thegovernment—and then maintained unrelentingpressure to force compliance withwhat had been promised. Whenever theMexico government dragged its feet, renewedpressure was applied. In May 1986,for example, the coalition announced thattens of thousands of still-homeless victimswould link hands around Aztec Stadiumduring the internationally televisedNGOs to help distribute food and medicine in ruralareas (124).In some cases, governments are themselves launchingnongovernmental organizations. As part of its effortto create parks and reserves, the Costa Ricangovernment created the Neotropica Foundation andits sister organization, the National Parks Foundation.These organizations buy lands and transfer them tothe government; pay for park rangers; channel donationsfor specific projects, such as saving GuanacasteNational Park's dry tropical forest; and provide helpin emergencies (125). More often than not, however,government-launched NGOs have lacked the resourcesto be effective and have failed to win allegiancefrom other NGOs (126).EMERGING TRENDSNGOs are evolving in three main directions. First,many Southern NGOs are seeking greater autonomyfrom their Northern partners. Second, NGOs are steppingup their efforts to make connections, both byforming networks and associations of NGOs and byusing new communication technologies to stay abreastof issues and keep in touch with NGOs in other countries.Third, a few new roles for NGOs—legal defenseand policy research—are emerging in the developingcountries.Evolving North-South RelationsMany Southern groups believe that their dependenceon Northern groups for funds has exacted too high a228World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 14Box 14.3World Cup Soccer championship. This actionwas called off only at the last minutewhen a crash construction program beganto show visible results. Eventually, 50,000units were constructed and another 40,000units were repaired, more or less on timeand approximately within budget.CREATION OF A HEROThe earthquake demonstrates the galvanizingforce of a natural disaster. But in the aftermath—withthe relative success of thereconstruction program—the political energyof the movement waned. It was recapturednot by another natural event, butby a man-made media event: the creationof a popular hero—Superbarrio.Superbarrio was not an identifiable individual,but a masked lucha libre wrestler, agood guy sworn to oppose the bureaucracy,the greedy landlord, the party politicalhacks, and the state. Dressed in hisyellow tights, red cape, and SB-emblazonedsuperhero's wrestler mask, Superbarrioled tens of thousands of people instreet protests over renters' rights, housingcodes, credit for housing construction,and the pace and scale of the government'slow-cost housing program. Superbarrioloses his superstrength when hismask is removed or when he is removedfrom the sight of the people. So he forcedembarrassed public officials to negotiatein front of television reporters or on thestreet in front of cheering crowds.Superbarrio enlivened Mexican popularpolitics with audaciousness and humor. InAugust 1987, for example, he announcedhe would wrestle his archenemy CatalinoCreel—a takeoff of a soap opera villian,symbolizing for the tightfisted greedylandlord—in front of the National Cathedral.The government angrily rejected theunseemly location for a wrestling match.The government's willingness to allow thematch (and if so, where) became a hotlydisputed issue—and as a result, a mediaevent in itself. After suffering innumerablepolitical lampoons, the embarrassed governmentfinally reluctantly agreed to letthe match be held behind the cathedral.The ring was set up; but it mysteriouslydisappeared in the wee hours of dawn beforethe scheduled match, promptingtaunts, accusations of fraud, governmenttheft, and set off new of street protests.By creating a good-natured media herowho symbolized the popular struggle andwho could not be bribed (and was thereforetrusted by the people), the behind-thescenesbarrio associations managed tocreate considerable excitement, a sharedpool of knowledge, and a formidable politicalforce. But Superbarrio was more thanstreet theatre. He reflected the popularmovement's growing capacity to put information,not just symbolism, to use. At thattime, one tactic of the barrio associationswas to force the president of Mexico to negotiatepublicly through open letters thatappeared in the press. The letters recountedmeetings and promises made byhousing officials. Confronted by the barriogroups aggressively demanding a newround of low-cost housing constructionand expropriations of properties belongingto landlords who evaded taxes and ignoredhousing regulations, the governmentclaimed, first, that the housing needsof most victims were being successfullymet, and second, that no building siteswere available in the earthquake zonesthat would permit more low-cost construction.ARMED WITH BANDITWith an IBM personal computer and a simpleLotus program, the barrio groups rapidlycreated their own data base. I vividlyrecall watching a single researcher enterdata supplied by a network of organizationswhile, in the adjoining room, Superbarriosipped a beer, excoriated theduplicity of the government to a handfulof friendly reporters, and leaked his plansto "let the truth be known." Within a fewweeks of intense negotiation, the barriogroups were backed with an up-to-date independentdata base that listed the namesof about 20,000 unscrved earthquake victimsand homeless families. They thenmatched this against a second data base ofproperties which were in violation of citycodes, health standards, and paid no propertytaxes, and thus were eligible for expropriationunder Mexican law. (In fairness,rent control laws often make it unprofitableto rent out or maintain properties.)Armed with both information andthe means to convey it publicly, the barrioassociations were then in a position toargue that such non-taxpaying, semi-abandoned,unsanitary properties in the centralcity were being held solely for speculation,were not in the "social interest," and thereforeshould be expropriated by the state toprovide building sites for the secondphase of the National Reconstruction Program.The fact that the post-earthquake barrioassociations could successfully create theirown independent data base did not givethem the ultimate power of decision makingoi course; but it did significantly affecttheir negotiating strength and the substanceof political bartering. The mediaguerrilla Superbarrio generated not justjibes, but public debate over serious policyReferences and Notes1. Sheldon Annis, "An Information Revolutionat the Grassroots: What it Means forthe Poor," paper presented at the WorldConference on Education for All, Jontien,Thailand, March 1990, pp. 15-19. Note: Anedited version of this paper has been publishedas: Sheldon Annis, "Giving Voice tothe Poor," Foreign Policy, No. 84 (Fall 1991),pp. 93-106.price in lost autonomy, compromised priorities, and reducedinstitutional identity (127). As Southern NGOshave raised their numbers, skills, and management capability,they are increasingly eager to set the agendaon their own terms.Southern NGOs are pressing their Northern partnersto agree that the principal responsibility for developmentin the South lies ultimately with the southerncountries and their indigenous NGOs and that Northernfinancial aid should not be the controlling criterionthat defines the relationship between North andSouth. While Northern NGOs may claim superior technicalexpertise, Southern NGOs maintain that theyhave more practical and relevant development experiencein their own countries (128).Some donors are responding to Southern NGOs effortsto assert more authority over projects by supportingSouthern NGOs directly. Other donors choose tosupport Northern NGOs that are developing collaborativerelationships with Southern colleagues or givingtechnical assistance to Southern NGO's on their ownterms (129).The Indonesia-Canada Twinning Project, linkingtwo Canadian NGOs (Pollution Probe and the CanadianInstitute for Law and Policy) with three counterpartorganizations in Indonesia, is one example of thenew ways in which Northern NGOs are transferringtechnical know-how to their Southern colleagues. Canadianspecialists will help Indonesians use availabletechnology to monitor water pollution in the SurabayaWbrld Resources 1992-93229

14 Policies and InstitutionsPeople of the Penan tribe blockade a logging road in Sarawak during the Summer of 1991. Living quarters stand behind the blockade.River in East Java and will assess how existing legislationcan protect the river's environmental quality (130).Networks and Associations: Forging LargerAlliancesA notable trend in developing countries is the creationof network organizations that link similar organizationsto share information and coordinate activities.For example, the Indonesian Environmental Forum(WALHI) is an umbrella organization of more than400 smaller environmental organizations. WALHI organizesconservation education programs, runs trainingprograms on assessing environmental impacts orenvironmentally appropriate technology, providestechnical assistance to its members on issues such asfundraising, and lobbies government officials. WALHIrecently led several environmental groups in bringingIndonesia's first suit against a corporation for violatingenvironmental laws (131).Some networks are global in scope. The U.S.-basedPesticide Action Network (PAN) is an international coalitionof 300 organizations in 50 countries working forsustainable pest control methods. PAN is an importantsource of information on pesticides for grassroots organizationsin the developing world (132).Associations can play an important role in disseminatinginformation. The Asian NGO Coalition for\grarian Reform and Rural Development (ANGOC),for example, disseminates research and innovations toits members and the wider development community(133). Many other environment/development networkshave been formed at the international, regional, andnational levels. The African Association for Literacyand Adult Communication (AALAE), the AfricanWomen's Development and Communications Network(FEMNET), and the Association of AfricanWomen for Research and Development (AAWORD)are examples of well-regarded NGO networks at theregional level (134).Networks also can be used to bring together groupswith overlapping interests. The Coordinating Body ofthe Indigenous Organizations of the Amazon Basin(COICA), an umbrella organization for five NGOs representing1.2 million indigenous inhabitants of the Am-230World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 14azon Basin, convened a meeting with environmentalNGOs in May 1990 in an effort to forge an alliance thatwould meld the interests of indigenous groups in theAmazon and conservationists (135).Efforts to merge the environment and developmentperspectives are increasing. NGOs and NGO networkswith a primary focus on environment and a secondaryfocus on development include Environment and Developmentin the Third World (ENDA-Tiers Monde),Environment Liaison Centre International (ELCI), theHaribon Foundation, the Regional Network of EnergyExperts in Zimbabwe, KENGO, and WALHI (136).The Information Explosion Global Networking:Radio, TV, fax machines, and personal computers aretechnological symbols of a rapidly changing world inwhich information is instantly transmitted throughoutan increasingly dense global network.In Latin America, for example, radio stations blanketvirtually the entire continent. Latin Americans have acquiredmore than 60 million television sets since theearly 1950s. The number of television stations also ismushrooming. Bolivia until recently had about 7 stationsbut, with the advent of easily installed satellitedishes, now has about 50. One study argues that ruraleducators, grassroots groups, and NGOs inevitablywill develop decentralized, low-cost, interconnectedvideo systems (137). Important international news is instantlyavailable around the world via Cable NewsNetwork correspondents with satellite video communicationlinks.Computers and phone-linked networks also arespreading rapidly. Brazilian NGOs routinely buy importedblack market computers for as little as $1,000-2,000. Scores of larger NGOs have access to phonelinkedcomputer systems. NGO users also are formingnonprofit user networks such as Nicarao in CentralAmerica or Alternex in Brazil, which also are linked toU.S. networks. Information sent over these networkscosts about one fourth of a fax transmission or aboutone 40th of a telex (138).EcoNet, a U.S.-based network, connects thousandsof environmentalists, peace activists, and NGOsthroughout the world. The system can be used to senddocuments inexpensively and instantaneously toNGOs in other countries. EcoNet also carries hundredsof electronic conferences simultaneously, allowing informationto be pooled among thousands of organizationswith shared interests (139).Personal computers also allow grassroots organizationsto develop their own data bases, which can significantlyaffect their negotiating strength. Box 14.3, acase study of the protest engendered after the 1985earthquake in Mexico City, illustrates the point.The communications revolution greatly facilitates internationalNGO partnerships. For example, the World ResourcesInstitute, International Union for the Conservationof Nature and Natural Resources, and United NationsEnvironment Programme (UNEP) have organizeda collaborative project to develop a biodiversity conservationstrategy and a decade-long action plan for a sustainedworldwide effort to use biodiversity wisely.As part of the program, links are being establishedwith numerous partner organizations such as WALHIin Indonesia, the National Parks Foundation in CostaRica, Fundacion Natura in Ecuador, and about twodozen other NGOs and international agencies. The programuses EcoNet to exchange drafts of the biodiversitystrategy and other information, thus making theexchange of ideas easier and facilitating consensusbuildingamong the partner organizations (140). Thiskind of electronic alliance is still confined mainly tolarge-scale NGOs.UNEP also fostered the establishment of World-WIDE (World Women in the Environment), a worldwidenetwork of women concerned about environmentalmanagement and protection. The organizationpublishes an international newsletter and a directoryof women working in the environment field (141).New Roles: Policy Research, Legal DefenseA small but growing number of Southern organizationsat the regional and national levels are taking onnew roles in areas such as policy research and legal defense.Originally a birdwatching society, the Haribon Foundationin the Philippines has a legal program modeledafter U.S. legal defense groups such as the EnvironmentalDefense Fund. It works on legal issues relatingto biodiversity, habitat, endangered species, and thepreservation of tribal cultures. It also gives legal andresearch help to communities or NGOs that want tofile complaints about violations of environmental law.Haribon's test case against pollution from buses inmetropolitan Manila, which was designed to force theregional air pollution agency to use its authority to enforcethe law, was dismissed on the ground that thefoundation did not have legal standing (142).Other national organizations are focusing on technicalservices or policy research. In India, the Society forParticipatory Research in Asia (PRIA) provides research,training, and consulting support to grassrootsorganizations. PRIA staff have developed manualsand literature on community organizing and consultwith NGOs to solve problems of organization andmanagement. The society works in a wide variety ofsectors, including women's development, adult literacy,and wasteland reclamation (143).The African Center for Technology Studies (ACTS)in Nairobi is a "think tank" working on public policyissues concerning the environment and other matters.ACTS works to improve the quality of informationavailable to policymakers and trains other NGOs inadvocacy-oriented research methods (144).CONCLUSIONNGOs in the developing world are growing quickly innumbers and in sophistication. To a large extent theirpotential remains unfulfilled, however, because offunding limitations, their own institutionalWorld Resources 1992-93231

14 Policies and Institutionsweaknesses, and the uneasiness of many governmentsabout the role of NGOs.Nevertheless, NGOs are becoming increasingly importantplayers in environment and development inthe developing world, and they are likely to assume amuch greater role in the coming decades.Grassroots organizations can make numerous contributionsto sustainable development.• They can mobilize local energies and resources to supportprojects over the long-run; without local participationand commitment, many projects eventuallywither and die.• They can enable all the people of a society to improvetheir quality of life in ways that are sustainable and just.• Either through growth or building alliances with othergroups, they can increase their effectiveness and potentiallyinfluence national policy making.• They can be used to link all the elements of sustainabledevelopment—ecological, economic, political, and cultural.Integrating women into organizations, for example,can take advantage of the linkages among women,poverty, and the environment.• They can enable individuals to cope with change (145).Service organizations and national NGOs also havea significant role.• They can help bridge the differences in wealth, power,and culture among local organizations of poor peopleand government agencies or Northern institutions.• They can use their money, technical expertise, or persuasivepowers to help solve the problems of grassrootsgroups or to carry a message of dissent or approval.• They can manage conflicts among constituencies.• They can span the gap between local and technicalknowledge in the effort to find long-term solutionsthat are widely accepted by target groups.• They can solve problems, sometimes with new approaches,and they can disseminate what they havelearned to other organizations.• They can provide connections to local organizationsby joining networks or building links to internationalorganizations (146).International organizations can offer national andlocal groups new ideas and alert them to ongoing internationalpolicy making—trade liberalization, debt negotiations,and so forth—and its potential impact indeveloping countries. They can serve as internationallobbyists to attack the policies of their governments,corporations, or multilateral institutions that adverselyaffect developing countries. Indeed, Southern NGOsare increasingly insistent that lobbying should be theprimary role of Northern NGOs (147).International NGOs also can show how otherwisedisconnected communities share similar problems andcan increase general awareness of global issues such astropical deforestation, loss of biodiversity, and globalwarming.NGOs are not perfect: most could be better managed,more accountable, and more professional. Theycould pay more attention to designing projects thatcan stand on their own once the original fundingceases. They need to try harder to integrate womenand the very poor into projects. Northern NGOs coulddo more to treat their Southern counterparts as equalpartners.Political leaders who tolerate or encourage NGOs—both as critics and collaborators—will in the long termbe serving their own best interests. In the many newlydemocratic countries, NGOs should seize the opportunityto create a dialogue with governments tostrengthen the elements of political culture that are favorableto NGO growth.NGOs have no desire to compete with or replacegovernments, but they can help significantly to reducepoverty on a lasting basis and to build new understandingabout the links between environment and development.This chapter was written by World Resources Senior Editor RobertLivernash with assistance from Managing Editor Mary Paden. DavidRichards, a consultant to World Resources Institute, contributed toan earlier draft.References and Notes1. Sheldon Annis, "Can Small-Scale DevelopmentBe a Large- Scale Policy? The Case ofLatin America," World Development, Vol. 15,supplement (Autumn 1987), pp. 130-131.2. L. David Brown and David C. Korten, "UnderstandingVoluntary Organizations:Guidelines for Donors," Policy, Planning,and Research Working Papers (Country EconomicsDepartment, The World Bank,Washington, D.C., September 1989), p. 3.3. Ibid.4. David Richards, Consultant, Brattleboro,Vermont, 1990 (personal communication).5. Alan B. Durning, "People Power and Development,"Foreign Policy, No. 76 (Fall 1989),p. 71.6. Thomas H. Fox, "NGOs from the UnitedStates," World Development, Vol. 15, supplement(1987), pp. 11-12.7. Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), Voluntary Aid forDevelopment: The Role of Non-GovernmentalOrganizations (OECD, Paris, 1988), p. 18.8. Op. cit. 7, p. 19.9. Op. cit. 7, p. 20.10. Op. cit. 7, pp. 20-23.11. Op. cit. 6.12. Inter-American Foundation (IAF), AnnualReport 1989 (IAF, Rosslyn, Virginia, n.d.),p.l.13. Mayra Buvinic and Sally W. Yudelman,Women, Poverty, and Progress in the ThirdWorld, Foreign Policy Association HeadlineSeries, No. 289 (Foreign Policy Association,New York, Summer 1989), pp. 35-36.14. Diane Wood, Vice President for Latin America,World Wildlife Fund, Washington,D.C., 1990 (personal communication).15. Op. cit. 13, pp. 36-39.16. John Clark, Democratizing Development: TheRole of Voluntary Organizations (KumarianPress, West Hartford, Connecticut, 1991),p. 39.17. Ibid. Note: Bank lending is smaller afterdebt service for past loans is deducted.18. Op. cit. 7, p. 25.19. Kathleen D. McCarthy, "The Voluntary SectorOverseas: Notes from the Field," Centerfor the Study of Philanthropy Working Papers(Graduate School of the City Universityof New York, New York, n.d.), p. 9.20. Op. cit. 5, p. 69.21. Op. cit. 19, pp. 12-13.22. Op. cit. 19, pp. 10-11.23. Op. cit. 19, p. 10.24. Op. cit. 16, pp. 83 and 86.25. Jacob Pfohl and Jane Yudelman, Asian Linkages:NGO Collaboration in the 1990s (PrivateAgencies Collaborating Together, NewYork, 1989), p. 40.26. Op. cit. 19, p. 5.27. Op. cit. 19, pp. 6-7.232World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 1428. Jennifer Smith, U.S. Coordinator, PhilippineDevelopment Forum, Washington, D.C.,1991 (personal communication).29. Juan M. Flavier, President, International Instituteof Rural Reconstruction, Silang, Cavite,Philippines, 1990 (personalcommunication).30. David C. Korten, "NGOs and Development:An Overview," paper prepared for TheWorld Bank under the auspices of the Institutefor Development Research, Boston,1989, p. 5.31. Ibid.32. Sally W. Yudelman, Senior Fellow, InternationalCenter for Research on Women,Washington, D.C., 1990 (personal communication).33. Op. cit. 5, p. 70.34. Op. tit.30, p. 6.35. Op. tit.30, p. 6.36. Op. tit. 19, p. 25.37. Op. tit. 19, pp. 27-28.38. Sally W. Yudelman, "NGOs and SocialChange in Central America," paper preparedfor the Off-the-Record Workshop onPeace, Development and Security in CentralAmerica, Huatulco, Mexico, May 1989, pp.10-16.39. Michael Bratton, "The Politics of Government-NGORelations in Africa," World Development,Vol. 17, No. 4 (1989), pp. 570-571.40. Op. tit.30, p. 6.41. Op. tit.5.42. Op. tit.30, p. 6.43. Op. cit. 30, pp. 6-7.44. Op. cit. 2, p. 15.45. Patrick Breslin, Development and Dignity(Inter-American Foundation, Rosslyn, Virginia,1987), pp. 40-41.46. Albert O. Hirschman, Getting Ahead Collectively:Grassroots Experiences in Latin America(Pergamon Press, New York, 1984), pp. 18-21.47. Michael Bratton, "Non-governmental Organizationsin Africa: Can They Influence PublicPolicy?" Development and Change, Vol. 21(1990), pp. 96-97.48. L. David Brown, "Bridging Organizationsand Sustainable Development," Institute forDevelopment Research (IDR) WorkingPaper No. 8 (IDR, Boston, 1990), p. 12.49. Op. tit.7, p. 47.50. Betsy Aron and Jonathan Fox, Mexico's Communityfood Councils, 1979-86 (The SynergosInstitute, New York, 1988), p. 13.51. Elizabeth Brubaker, "India's GreatestPlanned Environmental Disaster," Ecofourm,Vol. 14, No. 2 (1989), pp. 6-7.52. "Thousands Protest Narmada Projects,"Ecoforum, Vol. 14, No. 2 (1989), p. 7.53. Lori Udall, Attorney, Environmental DefenseFund, Washington, D.C., 1991 (personalcommunication).54. Op. cit. 47, pp. 90-101.55. Op. tit.1, p. 131.56. Op. tit. 1, pp. 132-133.57. Op. tit.16, p. 47.58. Thomas F. Carroll, "Tending the Grassroots:Performance of Intermediary Non-Government Organizations," unpublishedmanuscript prepared under the sponsorshipof the Inter-American Foundation,Rosslyn, Virginia, 1990, pp. IV-1-2.59. Op. cit. 16, p. 48.60. Darryl D'Monte, "India: The pavementdwellers of Bombay," in Against AH Odds:Breaking the Poverty Trap, Donatus De Silva,ed., for The Panos Institute, Alexandria, Virginia(Seven Locks Press, Cabin John, Maryland,1989), pp. 8-10 and 19-23.61. Op. tit. 58, p. III-5.62. Op. tit.58, p. V-3.63. Op. cit. 58, pp. V-8-9.64. Milton J. Esman and Norman T. Uphoff,Local Organizations: Intermediaries in RuralDevelopment (Cornell University Press, Ithacaand London, 1984), pp. 24-26.65. Michael M. Cernea, "Farmer Organizationsand Institution Building for Sustainable Development,"World Bank Reprint Series(No. 414) (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., n.d.), pp. 5-6.66. Op. cit. 2, p. 16.67. Institute for Development Research andWorld Resources Institute, "NGO Contributionsto Environment and Sustainable DevelopmentPolicy Formulation," draftproposal, June 14,1990, pp. 3-4.68. Ibid., p. 40.69. Gilbert Arum, "KENGO's Experience in Environmentand Development," paper preparedfor the World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., November 1990, p. 2.70. Op. tit. 2, pp. 16-17.71. Judith Tendler, Turning Private Voluntary Organizationsinto Development Agencies: Questionsfor Evaluation, U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment (U.S. AID), ProgramEvaluation Discussion Paper No. 12 (U.S.AID, Washington, D.C., 1982), pp. 11-14.72. Robin Sharp, Director, Southern NetworksProgramme, International Institute for Environmentand Development, London, 1991(personal communication).73. Op. cit. 16, p. 59.74. Tim Allen, "Putting People First Again:Non- Governmental Organisations and the'New Orthodoxy' for Development," Disasters,Vol. 14, No. 1 (1990), pp. 67- 68.75. Op. cit. 16, pp. 60-61.76. Biswajit Sen, "NGO Self-Evaluation: Issuesof Concern," World Development, Vol. 15,supplement (Autumn 1987), pp. 163-164.77. U.S. Agency for International Development(U.S. AID), Toward an Environmental and NaturalResources Management Strategy for ANECountries in the 1990s (U.S. AID, Washington,D.C., 1990), p. 76.78. Op. tit.16, p. 62.79. Op. tit. 77, pp. 76-77.80. Diane B. Bendahmane, "New Perspectiveson Evaluation," Grassroots Development, Vol.14, No. 1 (1990), pp. 36- 37.81. Op. cit. 7, pp. 62-63.82. Op. cit. 7, pp. 47-48.83. Op. cit. 7, p.62. See also op. tit. 16, p. 83.84. Op. cit. 7, p. 62.85. Op. cit. 16, p. 83.86. Mary Morgan, "Stretching the DevelopmentDollar: The Potential for Scaling-Up," GrassrootsDevelopment, Vol. 14, No. 1 (1990),pp. 8-9.87. Ibid., p.9.88. Jan R. Van Orman, "Leadership and GrassrootsDevelopment," Grassroots Development,Vol. 13, No. 2 (1989), p. 5.89. Ibid.90. Op. cit. 88, p. 6.91. Sally W. Yudelman, "The Integration ofWomen into Development Projects: Observationson the NGO Experience in Generaland in Latin America in Particular," WorldDevelopment, Vol. 15, supplement (Autumn1987), p. 180.92. Ibid., pp. 180-182.93. Op. cit. 91, p. 183.94. Op. tit. 13, pp. 44-46.95. Irene Dankelman and Joan Davidson,Women and Environment in the Third World(Earthscan Publications, in association withInternational Union for Conservation of Natureand Natural Resources, known as theWorld Conservation Union, London, 1988),pp. 4-5.96. Ibid., p. 36.97. Ibid., p. 37.98. Ibid., p. 49.99. Linda Starke, Signs of Hope: Working TowardsOur Common Future (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1990), pp. 69-70.100. Op. tit.39, p. 585.101. Op. tit.39, p. 576.102. Rajesh Tandon, "NGO-Government Relations:A Source of Life or Kiss of Death?"paper prepared for the Society for ParticipatoryResearch, New Delhi, n.d., p. 17.103. Op. cit. 39, pp. 576-582.104. Op. cit. 102, p. 15.105. Op. cit. 19, p. 7.106. Op. cit. 19, p. 14.107. Op. cit. 47, pp. 101-102.108. Op. cit. 80, p. 36.109. Samuel Paul, "Governments and GrassrootsOrganizations: From Co-Existence to Collaboration,"in Strengthening the Poor: WhatHave We Learned, John P. Lewis, ed. (TransactionBooks, New Brunswick, New Jersey,1988), pp. 68-69.110. Op. cit. 67, p. 4.111. Op. cit. 29.112. Op. cit. 16, p. 97.113. Lisa Fernandez, "Private ConservationGroups on the Line in Latin America andthe Caribbean," World Wildlife Fund (WWF)Letter, No. 1 (WWF, Washington, D.C.,1989), p. 4.114. "With the Penan at the Last Blocade," EarthIsland Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2 (1989), p. 28.115. "Women Jailed for Destroying Eucalyptus,"Down to Earth, No. 7 (March 1990), p. 2.116. "Women Re-Occupy Plantation Land,"Down to Earth, No. 10 (September 1990),p. 8.117. "Kedung Ombo: Government AbandonsHard Line," Down to Earth, No. 3 (June1989), p. 4.118. Sarah L. Timpson, Director, and Jane Jacqz,Senior Advisor, Human Development Division,United Nations Development Programme,New York, 1990 (personalcommunication).119. Dorothy Munyakho, "Kenya: The parkingboys of Nairobi," in Against All Odds: Breakingthe Poverty Trap, Donatus De Silva, ed.for The Panos Institute, Alexandria, Virginia(Seven Locks Press, Cabin John, Maryland,1989), p. 80.120. Op. cit. 69, pp. 3-4.121. Sheldon Annis, "What is Not the SameAbout the Urban Poor: The Case of MexicoCity," in Strengthening the Poor: What HaveWe Learned?, John P. Lewis, ed. (TransactionBooks, New Brunswick, New Jersey, 1988),pp. 139-140.122. Op. tit. 109, p. 66.123. Op. cit. 39, p. 582.124. Carlos Lopez, Ecologist, Environmental Division,Inter-American Development Bank,Washington, D.C., 1991 (personal communication).125. Yanina Rovinski, "Costa Rica: The PrivateArm of Public Interest," Panos, No. 6 (May1988), p. 4.126. Op. cit. 39, p. 579.127. Anne Gordon Drabek, "Development Alternatives:The Challenge for NGOs—An Overviewof the Issues," World Development, Vol.15, supplement (Autumn 1987), p. xi.128. Kingston Kajese, "An Agenda of FutureTasks for International and IndigenousWorld Resources 1992-93233

14 Policies and InstitutionsNGOs: Views from the South," World Development,Vol. 15, supplement (Autumn 1987),pp. 79-81.129. Op. cit. 32.130. Op. cit. 77, p. 77.131. Op. cit. 77, pp. 74-75.132. Global Pesticide Monitor, Vol. 1, No. 2 (May1990), p. 2.133. L. David Brown, "Bridging Organizationsand Sustainable Development," Institute forDevelopment Research (IDR) WorkingPaper No. 8 (IDR, Boston, 1990), p. 5.134. Of), cit. 118.135. Bruce Cabarle, "Indians, Environmentalistsand the Fate of the Amazon," paper preparedfor the World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., 1990.136. Sarah L. Timpson, Director, Human DevelopmentDivision, United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP), New York, 1990(personal communication).137. Sheldon Annis, "An Information Revolutionat the Grassroots: What it Means for thePoor," paper presented at the World Conferenceon Education for All, Jontien, Thailand,March 1990, pp. 8-9. Note: An edited versionof this paper has been published as:Sheldon Annis, "Giving Voice to the Poor,"Foreign Policy, No. 84 (Fall 1991), pp. 93-106.138. John Garrison, "Computers Link NGOsWorldwide," Grassroots Development (Fall1989), cited in Sheldon Annis, "An InformationRevolution at the Grassroots: What itMeans for the Poor," paper presented at theWorld Conference on Education for all,Jontien, Thailand, March 1990, p. 12.139. Op. cit. 137.140. International Union for Conservation of Natureand Natural Resources, now the WorldConservation Union, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, and World ResourcesInstitute (WRI), "The Biodiversity ConservationStrategy Programme," (WRI, Washington,D.C., July 1990), pp. 1 and 11, and WaltReid, Associate, Program in Forestry andBiodiversity, World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., 1990 (personal communication).141. WorldWIDE, "Statement of Purpose"(WorldWIDE, Washington, D.C., n.d.).142. Nels Johnson, Associate, Program in EnvironmentalPlanning and Management,World Resources Institute, August 1991(personal communication).143. Op. cit. 2, p. 13.144. Op. cit. 67, p. 18.145. Op. cit. 133, p. 2.146. Op. cit. 133, pp. 2-3.147. Op. cit. 16, p. 126.234World Resources 1992-93

15. Basic EconomicIndicatorsThe clear value of economic data and analysis todecisionmakers has motivated them to mandate thecreation of extensive global economic data sets. Thischapter contains a set of these basic economic data,which provides the context for understanding thecauses and the consequences of many of the decisionsthat affect the world's resources.Many traditional economic indicators fail to accountfor the depletion or deterioration of natural resources,the long-term consequences of such depletion, the equitabledistribution of income within a country, or thesustainability of current economic practices.The type of measurement shown here, however, isstill useful in showing the great differences betweenthe wealthiest and the poorest countries. At $5.2 trillion,the economy of the United States overwhelms theeconomies of the other countries in the Western Hemisphere.As shown in Table 15.1,30 countries in Africahave per capita GNPs under $500; in contrast, the percapita GNP of Switzerland is over $30,000.Comparisons between countries based on GNP orGNP per capita must be made with care, because ofvariations in the exchange rate of the dollar. Comparisonsof trends in GNP growth, adjusted for inflation,are not subject to this caveat. High growth rates inmany Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia, the Republicof Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, andThailand, among others) stand out in comparison tothe relatively low growth rates in Europe and the stagnant,or even declining, economies in Latin America.Another indicator of economic status is the provisionor receipt of official development assistance(ODA), which is given to promote economic developmentand general welfare. The United States still givesthe most overall ($8.9 billion), but Japan has increasedits ODA to $8.5 billion ($73 per capita compared to $31in the United States). India was the largest recipient ofODA ($2.1 billion), followed by Viet Nam ($1.9 billion),China ($1.7 billion), Bangladesh ($1.7 billion),and Egypt ($1.6 billion).On a per capita basis, Mongolia receives the most($354) ODA while Norway donates the most ($217).Saudia Arabia, Norway, and the Netherlands eachgive over 1 percent of their GNP to ODA. In contrast,the United States allocates only 0.2 percent of its GNPto ODA. ODA is extremely important to the economiesof some countries (ODA represents over 20 percentof the GNP in 15 countries, 12 of them in Africa).Table 15.2 shows some trends in international debtfor 107 countries. The total external debt for thesecountries was almost $1.15 trillion in 1989 (the most recentyear for which complete data are available) and isgrowing. In fact, many of these debt indicators show adecline in economic health over the past 10 years.Many countries pay more each year to service their existingdebt than they borrow. Much of this negativecapital flow is accounted for by highly indebted, middle-incomecountries. The poorest countries still borrowmore than they pay. For many developingcountries, external debt is a large proportion of GNP,and debt service takes a significant portion of the totalforeign exchange earned from the export of goods andservices. For example, Argentina's external long-termpublic debt was 95 percent of its GNP in 1989, and itsdebt service represented 36 percent of its total exportearnings.Table 15.3 shows how much central governmentsspend and how they prioritize that spending. Thesedata come from a variety of years. In addition, the proportionof total government spending by central governmentscompared with local and provincialgovernments also varies. Therefore, comparisons ofcentral government spending should be made withcare. A country such as the United States, where manyexpenditures are made by state and local governments,cannot be directly compared to a country suchas Singapore where all expenditures are made by thecentral government. For example, although only 2 percentof central government expenditures in the UnitedStates go to education, fully 14 percent of total central,state, and local government expenditures are for education—identicalto Singapore's central government expenditurepercentage.Defense can account for a very high proportion of acentral government's spending. For example, Sudanspends 47 percent on defense; Israel, 26 percent; andthe United States, 25 percent.Many developing countries still depend on the saleof raw materials to earn needed foreign exchange.Table 15.4 shows that price indexes for all categories ofcommodities (except timber) have declined over thepast 15 years. Of agricultural commodity prices, onlybanana prices were higher in 1989 than in 1975. Mostagricultural commodity prices were dramaticallylower. Wood products and refined metals fared somewhatbetter.World Resources 1992-93235

15 Basic Economic IndicatorsTable 15.1 Gross National Product and Official DevelopmentWORLDGross National Product1989Total Per Capita(million $US) ($US)Average AnnualChange in RealGNP (percent)1969-79 1979-89Distribution ofGross DomesticProduct, 1989 {a}(percent)Agriculture IndustryServicesAverage AnnualOfficial DevelopmentAssistance (ODA)(million $US) (b)1982-84 1987-89ODA as aPercentageof GNP {b}1982-84 1987-891989 ODAPer Capita($US) {b}AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela53,1166,0101,7531,105 c2,7161,14911,6612811,1441,0382092,0459,305333 d32,5011495,9533,0601965,5032,3721738,7858161,052 e22,976 c2,5431,4752,1099532,06822,0691,1931,540 f2,19528,3142,1574,7168131,03586,02913,2266833,0791,36410,0894,2548,8413,0606,0761,622294500,3374,89820,900 g5,5135,3568,2052,5564,4953,011170,0532,803 e4,2114,0005,237,70768,7804,301375,14622,91038,60710,7742484,29923,0091,3148,06947,1642,170620380940 c3102201,0107603901904609307901,070 d6304301202,770230380430180380470450 e5,410 c2301802604901,950900801,245 f2902503106502001702,4605409001203901,2602502603906406,3701,60019,0201,7902,000 g7901,0409204009001,2601,990800 e1,7803,16021,1002,1606002,5501,7701,1901,0403401,0301,0903,0202,6202,4506.4X2.413.53.28.96.1X2.3(1.5)2.15.46.3X7.1X3.28.05.31.5XX7.112.43.33.41.66.05.12.16.45.0XX1.56.34.52.82.24.73.44.15.63.83.33.3X2.310.83.84.24.48.90.54.74.56.11.2X5.6X2.40.82.31.9X2.44.22.0X(4.7)(0.5)2.23.41.64.23.9XX(0.6)(0.1)2.22.21.81.22.21.74.01.82.013.2X45.52.931.855.927.014.442.235.835.813.746.0X21.258.743.110.334.150.2X47.030.724.037.0X31.434.849.637.612.615.564.4X36.430.737.122.046.364.85.836.023.265.633.943.2X12.154.824.315.027.917.115.320.014.135.524.0X25.010.316.846.510.317.9X15.819.529.828.0X14.420.112.224.132.035.722.0X12.644.122.831.112.49.643.914.640.37.522.643.6X42.442.343.829.145.168.542.544.250.150.830.0X53.931.040.143.255.631.8X37.249.846.235.0X54.245.138.238.355.348.813.6X51.025.240.146.941.325.750.349.436.526.943.649848210319513617660999239103140761,5771345367481579764432101120(63)2041322551804151425701983915532570385X780306161007.2 3.613.8 32.8 53.4 2036.1 1.8 17.8 26.7 55.4 183X X X X X 6971.44.93.46.46.9(1.8)(0.1)1.54.31.54.12.92.71.614.212.76.622.73.372.529.643.038.820.922.634.87.432.142.848.572.554.761.820.238.32622421314(1,417)1443257.64.56.03.55.60.69.2(0.4)4.94.52.82.93.98.42.06.09.42.38.13.54.72.64.52.3(1.2)0.80.02.10.52.0(2.0)0.7(3.4)2.6(1.6)(0.4)2.73.23.02.3(2.3)3.60.1(2.1)(0.2)(0.8)15.221.5X31.320.65.68.021.010.22.82.013.824.08.6X16.816.024.529.57.611.010.86.125.523.1X38.025.142.032.234.014.939.729.332.727.042.9X36.431.031.222.430.525.828.245.859.355.4X30.754.352.459.846.074.957.468.753.549.048.5X46.853.044.348.161.963.361.048.114125768132211177118198535(8,331)50165159(2)9184356227237361651631831552871963228318823550110368911,639438511079246730410378411467(92)331349419204614608473334115924462091478X86438931169280349614433278426(2,182)2148001314302461882742081383262716(8,915)154384190436916734832903232(25)0.11.88.411.213.813.42.444.614.615.236.05.22.2X6.0X9.72.126.83.8X41.37.214.712.0(0.2)6.311.623.225.34.03.811.00.011.80.010.313.85.551.7X10.35.810.113.40.32.811.09.011.018.12.832.217.924.825.15.64.1X5.430.415.13.550.79.213.464.410.016.0X(0.4)14.326.521.822.83.12.374.21.916.10.611.013.810.447.6X8.96.131.813.361654131323741207654498413518431103151201093863106417424(27)2948561275518533440334902569X313939522.6 3.0 306.6 4.8 83X X 648.64.21.38.0(0.4)7.43.113.85.00.39.2(0.5)7.67.550289156(88)24192.37.00.88.17.46.60.18.11.30.1(0.2)0.16.00.10.00.20.88.51.21.33.70.10.02.58.33.28.56.56.90.1X0.60.4(0.2)0.29.20.10.20.21.711.72.11.12.60.4(0.1)2186293249110111975(31)7621521656221411712(2)236World Resources 1992-93

Basic Economic Indicators 15Assistance 1969-89 Table 15.1ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPoland(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)Gross National Product1989Total Per Capita(million $US) ($US)X3,009 c19,913266 cX393,0064,892287,38387,93697,600 g35,000 g44,1312,920,3105,29128,000 g186,46733,082693X37,005XX3,2067,75640,13434,4274,077 d89,98628,0587,26812,812 c64,43774,73128,44914,200 g7,2031,200 h3,800 g117,341162,02620,860123,200 g105,263109,7051,000,8661,272,959159,50053,62627,0785,35130,054871,9559,4082,041237,41572,02866,974X6,360 c180190 cX3607,0503504901,800 g1,940 g9,75023,7301,7301,240 g4,40016,380170X2,130XX1705,2203707009,920 d6,23010,4504301,100 c1,1701,36018,430215 g640495 h1,200 g17,36016,3902,3207,878 g20,51022,06017,83020,7509,679 g5,3402,56021,2408,50015,15024,8605,82016,01021,8501,760Distribution ofAverage AnnualAverage AnnualChange in RealGross DomesticProduct, 1989 (a)Official DevelopmentAssistance (ODA)ODA as aPercentageGNP (percent)(percent)(million $US) (b) of GNP (b)1969-79 1979-89 Agriculture Industry Services 1982-84 1987-89 1982-84 1987-89XX2.4XX7.4X3.07.15.0X5.6XX3.5XX8.95.95.66.51.7X3.65.3 4.1XX XX9.65.3XX7.5X4.52.67.44.76.3X13.39.04.48.57.05.7XXXX8.1(0.8)XX5.7X2.34.09.26.81.8(0.4)0.57.24.02.47.34.3(0.4)XXXX3.9XXXX2.1XXX2.3 1.43.7 3.63.4 2.13.1X5.3X6.44.33.87.8 4.510.73.34.2XX X X 258 290X24.1 35.7 40.2 774 1,572 0.9X X X 31 81 0.01.244.343.714.455.741.31701,221(2)1,7004.79.346.7 29.3 24.6 14 42X X X 123 21310.3X32.47.137.746.126.928.521.466.039.8450231,6711,718422,1270.21.00.9X X X 29X X X 1,1452.6 41.2 56.2 (3,701)5.9 28.0 66.1 758X X X 4310.21.0XXXXX58.73.026.623.5X7.60.326.038.316.916.51.7X28.016.0X3.22.0XX4.96.53.31.9 7.5X X1.276.21.174.42.4X1.49.92.43.72.33.73.91.54.03.5 3.0XX44.0 45.8255.6 43.45XXX X 109X 130X 213XX15.043.023.933.3X42.837.126.816.035.135.655.4X17.023.0X37.030.8XX28.935.429.340.1X23.236.9X37.433.735.240.530.734.0XXX26.457.049.543.3X49.662.647.245.648.047.942.9X55.061.0X59.867.2XX66.358.167.358.4X54.648.7X52.762.762.555.665.363.0X61131020190839387(55)(3,390)25452874433420(277)1,2793602030(192)(473)XX(420)(158)(3,879)(3,037)X12XX(38)(926)X27(1,312)(561)X1131,211(8,475)42688(20)4209120202760334422121,150823(1)(2,017)47549392591264261,899469X5(262)(662)XXPortugal44,058 4,260 4.98.70.5Papua New Guinea3,444 900 3.7 1.228.4 30.6 41.0 322 347 13.5 10.6Solomon Islands181 570X 4.9X X X 25 55 18.1 33.3RomaniaSpain79,800 g358,3523,445 g9,150X3.82.91.62.8X6.237.7X36.854.2X57.064X(149)83X(217X(0.1)Sweden184,230 21,710 2.4 1.83.3 34.8 61.9 (827) (1,568(0.9)Switzerland197,984 30,270 6.8 2.4X X X (286) (574(0.3)United KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew Zealand834,16659,0802,659,500 g242,1311,21839,43714,5702,4909,211 g14,4401,64011,8002.86.1X3.56.81.62.00.3X3.00.71.81.813.8X4.223.78.437.949.4X37.520.928.060.336.8X64.355.463.6(1,613)(1)(2,674)(801)33(60)(2,36841(4,193(91644(93(0.5)2.9(0.3)(0.3)0.1X(0.4)4.0(0.2)Sources: The World Bank; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; and U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.Notes: a. Numbers in italics are from earlier years, b. For ODA, flows to recipients are shown as positive numbers; flows from donors as negative numbers (in parentheses).c. 1988 World Bank estimate, d. 1986 Central Intelligence Agency estimate, e. 1987 World Bank estimate, f. 1987 Central Intelligence Agency estimate.g. 1989 Central Intelligence Agency estimate, h. 1988 Central Intelligence Agency estimate. ODA data for the Yemens is combined for 1989.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.(906)(582)(6,947)(4,690)X34XX(52)(3,137)X(3)(2,140)(931)XX4.3(0.3)XX0.00.0XX0.723.85.18.11.22.81.1(0.7)(2.7)0.18.65.11.10.8(0.9)XX17.7X(0.3)(0.6)XX(0.8)(0.3)(0.7)(0.5)X0.0XX(0.2)(0.2)X2.3(1.0)(1.0)X0.3X(0.1)(0.9)(0.3)(0.3)(0.0)XX(0.1)9.0XX0.51.00.82.00.11989 ODAPer Capita($US){b)17(6)1630302593102X42.9 260(0.3) (73)8.1 72X 5(0.0)0.030.7X0.621.82.614.10.23.12.1(0.0)(2.4)0.28.03.51.00.40.16.54.5XX(0.2)(0.4)XX(0.9(0.6(0.7(0.4X0.1XX(0.2(0.4X(0.2(1.0(1)263448354527121014(0)(80)353214133(4)2633X3(37)(70)XX(183)(142)(133)(80)X3XX(14(63X(15)(1.1x(141)(217X8X(6)(212)(84)(45)2(14)(61)58(26)89158World Resources 1992-93237

15 Basic Economic IndicatorsTable 15.2 External Debt Indicators 1979-89107 COUNTRIESTotal External Debt(million $US)1979 1984 1989450,435 818,269 1,143,6571979290,846Disbursed Long-Term Public Debt(million $US)1984554,3631989899,345CurrentBorrowingDebt Service as a Percentage of:PerLong-Term Public Debtas a Percentage of GNPExports ofGoods and ServicesCurrentBorrowingCapita($US)1979 1984 1989 1979 1984 1989 1979 1984 1989 198924.05AFRICAAlgeriaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNigerNigeriaRwandaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABelizeCosta RicaDominican RepEl SalvadorGrenadaGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaSt. VincentTrinidad and TobagoSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruUruguayVenezuela93,010 148,698 246,51618,519 15,944 26,067396 674 1,177128 261 513295 429 756136 344 8672,117 2,722 4,74340 104 17619 75 130150 265 716237 158 3681,045 2,049 4,31641 116 2284,755 8,107 15,41226 86 18016,041 34,864 48,799729 1,524 3,0131,722 920 3,17581 230 3421,273 1,898 3,0781,138 1,226 2,17670 240 4582,887 3,689 5,69052 136 324595 1,076 1,761789 2,160 3,607661 876 1,394572 1,244 2,157718 1,338 2,010373 550 8328,495 14,027 20,851X X 4,73717 54 131629 956 1,5786,259 18,537 32,832156 291 6521,1174743695714,0672,200716171,4988,612181 1922,197 3,4311,019 8073,399 4,096574 1,0314,838183,0465,1503,824559 2,25256,425 123,27672 972,110 3,9731,604 3,113886 1,7301,0402541,1821,70742,7741,4872,6047681140,06220,9502,55160,7169,3615,8694,5256408079,2691,32324,0502,3536642,2843,47194,8224,1391681,0562,13712,9652814,9171,1856,8991,80972,886 114,515 204,24316,586 14,185 23,60993 316 810292 576 1,046111 256 509246 388 6851,65218116207398243,6802111,8781,700752161471013,708126642317162371,8454,8426228,455803,5358,15513339,7512045911,46148955992651,833474525984965186222197,354X2563,2671281,3586691521,1131,1041862,4671287741,8397091,0921,16433711,6422,8762,4782922,2791,9674274,0013121,0913,3451,2422,0551,77763119,50715X67411,393244543,8851,12731,668606110814132675453,2611691,7269073,0075101,688513231,2836,1911712,6406813,7056523,5081335121,8148,2612604,5059466,0851,48952301916122861253032526436277731 23 3318 58 4516 34 5930 23 3242 95 8275 93 17613016470X 100X45X7918963315 28 4824X26X4455 22 8521 103 14855 13531 419 2043 791749 6235 105104 17018 3448 96X131240311129923540391024323X4712151537735301727234461004822501,851 408 1,389 1,657 12 3578 13 42 68 X 428,8436,8733,088134,3821344,4684,0654,1361,81852437,891341,3018684,1602,6271,57591,836753,1652,3647,5714,0952,567106,9081263,4803,28027591323331661107324194485,1064,369231,222254,25548,8574,317105,01519,73712,0398,3051,2651,47013,0993,27136,8812,6018023,3504,32295,6419,2055,800512,012287,80664,7454,359111,29018,24016,88711,3111,7132,49019,8763,75033,1444272107501,19029,0141,0852,072751575,2558,6001,88836,2184,8113,3842,6025215246,0189339,7571,9474751,7742,52169,7264,0883,185211,063158,01426,7003,37270,57710,6177,7346,5576941,2489,2102,52818,7782,0896842,8233,59476,2577,5463,575491,680217,65051,4293,60584,28410,85014,0019,4219872,09712,6702,96725,3396193652217376141221265811842149742217 3773 13917 3524 6112 21291061541131730 383 202 45 124 2310 16X X2 164 5X 271320X20X27414324777 25 X6 2016 136 119 232565037X1438010018831903895711528277794858172X 3320 371 514 138 23177335353013202634X X14 272 342 7X 2153 16 18180186213 221840 2 6633715 256 38170 14 2473 9 24838245407151293726296111141511862714 4670190284752329585184738944295145376111221X3528857821257234.4369412312112816230.6734.6515 13 40 39 11.354 60 42 107 52.923329 38 18.5719 29 99 50 63.51X 7 32 62 23.5514 29 60 46 22.3859 15 72 13 16.5812 67 11.3527 37 79 238 60.8819 58 1,122 32 45.9541X60X841511611399.5532.1229 42 80 139 42.0839 17 49 94 6.0015 68 137 40 50.2812 85 113 167 120.8111 20 79 48 44.6449 47 42 71 42.9345 12 26 29 42.1952 12 59 124 17.1533 46 106 109 25.285X 11 76 38 33.7234 47 375 0.48281920104124332119452912X3017732263X332713X70225811173X89206252013 15 5260 685 4662 8734 5 136 14 7981 16 15317 25 5319 14 12925 54 8021 21 9925 12 5026 26 156 8 732 19 7919 15 7324 22 11611 X 6722102332528161218938100X2333634414453114341219526346603038181832362519 4519 3613 6427 7140 9633982312363131284936111272925303874917562798445100465213759168831778590102993973911992211413211863325512014879128166577626433468359614416530681184327101181664341155551021211091051247310128416093401591199515827711500391593317338115816511162805721917716.9223.0855.6993.7750.5813.3223.9513.409.81150.4151.95198.811.6612.359.6629.306.6125.26117.7011.4714.2517.6568.1053.1896.0246.6428.4136.1265.7520.346.8130.76160.7961.1575.640.2567.74115.7744.5341.1954.1520.60130.5969.9691.4056.3848.2925.8495.97114.97238World Resources 1992-93

Basic Economic Indicators 15Table 15.2Disbursed Long-Debt Service as a Percentage of:CurrentBorrowingPerTotal External Debt(million $US)Term Public Debt(million $US)Long-Term Public Debtas a Percentage of GNPExports ofGoods and ServicesCurrentBorrowingCapita($US)1979 1984 1989 1979 1984 1989 1979 1984 1989 1979 1984 1989 1979 1984 1989 1989ASIA 123,712 236,038 369,024 86,052 156,003 288,032 16.32Bangladesh3,196 5,632 10,712 2,736 5,037 9,926 24 36 49 29 25 29 31 46 47 9.38Bhutan0 3 79 0 3 77 X 2 26 X X7 X X3 0 37 8.34China2,183 12,082 44,857 2,183 6,179 37,043 1 2 9 01097 82 6.20India17,892 33,857 62,509 16,859 25,204 54,776 12 13 21 12 21 30 94 74 104 7.38Indonesia18,631 31,861 53,111 13,383 22,240 40,851 25 27 46 20 21 35 115 96 122 40.92Fiji142 413 398 110 279 286 11 25 25 4 10 12 61 123 467 27.03Papua New Guinea609 2,030 2,496 393 961 1,371 18 39 41 102XX 40 35 157 109 92 151.26Solomon Islands14 45 102 13 37 100 13 22 572X2 9XX 36 20 130 24.28TongaX X 45 X5 X 44 X5 X 43XX X 250 8.16Vanuatu5 13 325 224 18 54 32 49.34Jordan1,523 3,508 7,418 1,239 2,832 6,404 X 59 148 12 21 24 44 86 53 285.80Korea, Rep22,885 42,099 33,111 13,766 23,833 17,351 22 27 8 15 21 11 58 104 216 91.97Lao People's Dem Rep255 434 949 242 422 939 X 28 151 X 10 13 31 10 9 34.80Lebanon271 448 520 101 188 234 X X X X X X 17 284 236 9.16Malaysia4,956 18,801 18,576 3,084 13,237 14,460 15 42 40 7 14 15 73 78 197 122.80Maldives13 84 67 7 51 54 36 116 60 1 21 X 21 105 300 15.71MyanmarNepalOmanPakistan1,2811466608,9332,3334701,63312,1254,1711,3592,97418,5091,1271105147,9032,1974301,3409,7274,0451,2902,62614,669216154135161732254334373038314565333017143126178972582164999226114735.2613.61375.8422.07PhilippinesSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkey13,2891,5542,3366,62515,90024,3742,9923,46314,98121,60128,9025,1015,20223,46641,6005,0901,0152,0222,67511,04111,3222,3482,8387,15416,57022,9924,2383,93412,42434,78117301810163640181834526125184525141320453415142633272122163768526063291676091921201688319511314933.4129.1620.6468.5385.67YemenEUROPE(Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)63754636,4051,8711,38753,4263,3242,505102,78251144518,1941,6021,25132,6492,4452,47480,617176032913619454114461383242845471325914.07151.2667.32Hungary8,861 10,983 20,605 5,689 7,053 16,843 30 62 6 29 27 266 91 146 218.31Malta115 176 411 82X 91X 80 9X4 1 2X 29 74X 127 1,214 8.29PolandX X 43,32434,747X 55 XX 568 7.20Portugal7,875 14,865 18,289 5,495 10,765 14,644 27 59 33 241 43 22 63 104 101 340.25Romania3,583 7,758 500 3,258 6,255 0 10 16 0 16 13 8 525 7,485 1.12YugoslaviaOCEANIA15,97082119,6442,57619,6513,1473,6705678,4851,34614,3031,89519 24 32 33 19 80 259 370 42.54117.03Western Samoa 75 74 63 72 18 23 15 30 45 134 30.67Source: The World Bank.Notes: 0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.UlWorld Resources 1992-93239

15 Basic Economic IndicatorsTable 15.3 Central Government ExpendituresWORLDYearTotal(million$US)ExpendituresPercentofGDPPerCapita($US) Defense Education HealthPercentage of Total ExpendituresSocialSecurity,Welfare,and HousingRecreation,Culture,andReligionAgriculture,Forestry,Fishing,Transportationandand Hunting CommunicationAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentra! African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela198819861979198719871977198919881989198819861988 *19841986 a1987 a198819871985198219881988 *19871988 a1989 *1984 a1986198819881988198819901987198819881988198719881984198419871987 a1989 *1989 a198119871987 a19861982 a19881988 a1988 a19831988 f1988 a1989 *1988 a19891989 b19821989 *19841989 c1988 a1988 a19891989 e1988 e1988 c1987 d1987 a1984 d198819811987 a1989 c1986 a1988198622,0002,7001987652841182,2438730540.7X21.736.415.721.527.533.127.685 9.467 43.7575 26.12,068 31.6137 X25,844 40.0311,8901,41873711480872,35622429811,3002453855873345815,2832399325106,30052272918040526,1501,3001721,5963903,3852,2651,8511,0352,50053353123,1981,13113,50087966498427094956139,5355751,3051,2421,194,60013,723717103,4135,5475,7971,3683734084,7545191,96913,01421.134.938.730.613.619.272.528.654.427.754.814.426.729.833.426.728.014.9X21.323.622.730.816.525.430.28.025.428.731.335.212.734.238.146.692630159670 1234 18311942481031616426921737453078411,423108XX201814XX1111X 115117X2112XXX123XXX102XXX422 X 14 20X XX XXX4 X3X4 21 5XXX19 12 17 4XX XX11 h 4 h 91 h 11 hXXX X XX1772 11 12651 2612X3X X XX95 45173X2207X6104 12 22130 16X140152,86722487317920X58 hXXX129 hXX72hXXX13h541 2 15226165587115XX417XXX187XXX5971783 hX11715501678853226851204441496713727034.0 2,09429.3 33722.2 4,74824.5 423X 1,28318.910.311.618.219.432.219.846.928.733.423.515.314.524.129.315.213.365.79.016.651.724.821.5128129110481912464671595629844,8024351047314421981364871042241,267643732X47612116260162105281310XX2 hX8X2591241074610X486XX241320151516922XX96 h516 1117 936 h19X 25918207XX12 hX19X292151220X1011X18820X7107XX2 hX20X13281065X63X4410XXX53h223 h02437 h15XX586XX10 hX23X294112243923X327X75112XX00hXXX112 hXX11h 11315271 h 5322 191 11311h1X1104XX0 hX1X010011X00X211XX139 h31144X144 h14465XX3 hX3X221421X171X4139868XX2 hX2X39164410X46X375240World Resources 1992-93

Basic Economic Indicators 15Table 15.3ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, Rep{i}KuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen{i} (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)Year1987 *198919851990 aXX1988 a1989 e1988 a1988 b1989 *1989 b1988 x19881989 *19901986198819881989ca**1987 *1989 a19901988 a1986 d1988 b1988 *1990 '1987 a1989 a19871989 a198919891987 *1990 a1988 *1989 *1989 d1988 b1988 *1986 *1987 e1988 d1987 b1987 e1986 *1981 a1989 b1987 d1987 a1988 a1988 a1988 a1989 a1989 c1988 c19871989 c1987 c1989 d1984 e1988 c1989 g1989 *Total(million$US)ExpendituresPercentofGDP647 X1,254 36.41,937 12.5117 41.0X XX1,26246,20216,69066,49535,00021,602471,7702,16415,60035,40910,15019865010,8432,1901,4626253,5467,4466,1093,40038,1007,3622,0709,03010,42318,3063,6134,3001,9739762,30049,35877,39628,00021,90038,95231,567387,143339,262123,20012,31016,2161,48015,560387,6193,139695120,50339,47926,61215,40921,48298,30476,22219,091287,7893,981781,000X29.817.619.617.5X48.016.3PerCapita($US) Defense Education Health342,5641982XXX1,83755951,2921,9164,7913,84837.0 574X 73516.751.3XX29.0X13.321.846.723.315.6XX8285,667502426251,11736332,495751048,3952,55734.5 2,81729.5 12327.8 80415.5 18822.8 33313.3 2,339X 7029.2XX39.150.1XX38.330.043.730.4X40.156.127.552.446.841.337.953.943.438.741.940.433.641.321.035.65.5X27.525.844.728.366 37.71704147196,4797,8313,1181,4107,5976,3766,9595,5447,4111,2651,5336,0174,3926,7488,3801,9968,1239,3407031,5039282,5328,9692,9645,0431682,71316m0XhhX317 h81?X26 hXX151112XX1131019hh26XX15XX4XXX10 h 4 h2613XX9hhX196382913X3215540181244 hX29 hX113 h5 hXX5569X1140343358X6966101253X2013XX0X141111317XX1411hhh10191615 hX19 hXX9 h12 hXX91471X10313128Percentage of Total ExpendituresSocial Recreation, Agriculture,2 h7XX0 hX55514XX462637hX4 hXX13 h2 hXX1112118X112251211Security, Culture, Forestry, TransportationWelfare, and Fishing, andand Housing Religion and Hunting CommunicationX710 h5 hX24X h217X22 hX12X12 h13XX5 hX158892XX11154534 hX0 hXX48 h43 hXX38364149X3330213039X2X h11X1 hX2X1 h10XXXX00211XX002003hX2 hXX1 h1 hXX2200X22201X112 h15 hXX11X2 hX5X8 h1XX8 hX218215XXX87921hX2 hXX3 h1 hXX1810X6467192 491 2 12994621 2111 12419X 11 40 1 6X X X X10559330X8512113140X2731375651356X10 h71396h1011000X29 h93433hOCEANIAAustraliaFiji1988 C198859,4432783,5963809 h97 h21New Zealand1988 b 18,3525,575 513Papua New Guinea1988 1,010271 515Solomon Islands1988219 0 h 22 hSources: The International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.Notes: a. The central government accounts for 95-100% of all tax revenues, b. 90-94.9%. c. 80-89.9 %. d. 70-79.9%. e. 60-69.9%. f. 50-59.9%. g. 20-49.9%.h. Preliminary, projected, or provisional, i. Total and per capita expenditures for Korea (Rep) and Yemen (Arab Rep) are for 1989.* = Central Intelligence Agency estimates. 0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.X621414X1 h1121 h2 h62717 hX11221X2 hX6X14XX0X8132310XXXhh104670 hX5 hXX6 h6 hXX3824X626371037XX643720X3 h931013 hWorld Resources 1992-93241

15 Basic Economic IndicatorsTable 15.4 World Commodity Indexes and Prices, 1975-89Commodrty Indexes (based on constant prices wtth 1979-81 = 100)33 NONFUEL COMMODITIESTotal AgricultureTotal Food-Beverages-Cereals-Fats and Oils-Other FoodsNonfood Agricultural ProductsTimberMetals and Minerals1975101100103711421041298953113197611211611713411511095111701101977123134143206961127810374104Commodity Prices (in constant 1980 $US per unit measure) (a)1975 1976 1977Cocoa (kg), New York & LondonCoffee (kg), BrazilTea (kg), World AverageRice (t), ThailandGrain Sorghum (t), U.S.Maize (t), U.S.Wheat (t), CanadaSugar (kg), WorldBeef (kg), U.S.Lamb (kg), New ZealandBananas (kg), Any OriginBlack Pepper (kg), Any OriginCopra (t), PhilippinesCoconut Oil (t), Phil. & IndonesiaGroundnut Meal (t), Any OriginGroundnut Oil (t), NigeriaLinseed (t), CanadaLinseed Oil (t) Any OriginPalm Kernels (t), NigeriaPalm Oil (t), MalaysiaSoybeans (t), U.S.Soybean Oil (t), Any OriginSoybean Meal (t), U.S.Fish Meal (t), PeruCotton (kg), IndexBurlap (meter), U.S.Jute (t), BangladeshSisal (t), East AfricaWool (kg), New ZealandNatural Rubber (kg), New YorkLogs (cubic meter), MalaysiaPlywood (sheet), PhilippinesSawnwood (cubic meter), MalaysiaTobacco (t), IndiaCoal (t), U.S.Petroleum (barrel), OPECGasoline (t), EuropeJet Fuel (t), EuropeGas Oil (t), EuropeFuel Oil (t), EuropeAluminum (t), EuropeBauxite (t), JamaicaCopper (t), LondonLead (t), LondonTin (t), MalaysiaZinc (t), New YorkIron Ore (t), BrazilManganese Ore (10 kg), IndiaNickel (t), CanadaSteel (t), U.S.Phosphate Rock (t), MoroccoDiammonium Phosphate (t), U.S.Potassium Chloride (t), CanadaTriple Superphosphate (t), U.S.Urea (t), Any OriginSource:Notes:1.982.942.21578.2178.2190.5288.70.722.112.270.393.19408.1626.6222.91,364.7538.21,116.2329.3691.43509862473901.850.35590.89244.3710.49X1.94265.02,41686.416.7191.6180.3159.298.91,09940.291,97066410,6561,36836.02.197,277461.9106.7386.9129.5322315.33.215.172.41399.5165.2176.5234.10.402.482.420.403.08431.7656.2276.31,163.3478.8857.1361.1638.23636883115902.660.30464.17365.3513.71X2.32263.92,21584.118.1216.5187.8168.6107.51,35342.702,19969911,7301,29234.42.287,808464.256.5188.486.3143175.85.419.703.84388.9126.3136.1165.40.262.152.360.393.59574.7826.0311.41,217.6388.4659.9466.1757.14008233296492.220.31458.47335.1113.10132.32.36220.12,38677.517.7188.0185.0168.3108.91,41644.001,87088315,3041,08330.92.117,433460.943.6190.072.9139182.019781021081111321001127997689219784.233.972.72456.5116.5125.1167.50.212.662.700.362.91584.4848.7254.71,340.6310.1539.4451.9745.63337542655091.950.27540.06094.6613.75121.02.35255.22,09969.215.8198.8181.6159.894.01,29842.611,69682215,54784924.11.785,729452.136.0173.770.1122179.91979105106106121921148610210410319793.614.262.36363.3118.8126.6189.00.233.162.600.362.32737.61,079.5231.4974.5366.0700.7548.3716.93277262674331.850.33424.87754.8615.61186.42.88371.82,33662.019.0367.3384.1340.9146.51,66740.132,1771,32516,25290125.61.516,563444.436.2212.084.1161189.61980105104104991019612110611010519802.604.582.23433.9128.9125.3190.80.632.762.890.381.99453.8673.8240.3858.8350.9697.1345.1583.52965972625042.050.40308.07654.6016.24195.52.74365.12,30055.729.4358.0349.3307.1170.21,73041.202,18390616,43782526.71.576,519452.846.7222.2115.7180222.1198191919082107929292879219812.073.852.01480.4125.8130.2195.40.372.462.730.401.58377.0567.1236.71,037.8352.5656.7315.7567.92875042514661.840.27274.66424.2512.46154.82.44312.62,33857.833.0352.3333.7297.2182.61,33139.801,73372313,99297724.21.675,924505.449.3194.0111.8160214.919828281818579767982888419821.753.201.95295.6109.5110.3168.00.192.412.400.381.57317.1468.6190.8590.2300.7523.3267.4449.12474512203561.610.27288.45983.9610.11157.32.35304.72,43256.934.3326.5325.3292.3165.51,07136.331,49355113,06685626.11.664,881539.542.8184.582.3139160.219838989888887928595849019832.203.262.41286.6133.3140.8175.50.192.532.000.441.75513.5755.6207.0735.9287.1501.7378.2519.02925452464691.920.30312.85833.7712.82150.32.38315.02,32459.530.5293.2287.4256.9168.71,54835.921,64844013,49394424.81.574,837565.338.2190.078.0140140.2The World Bank.a. Log, petroleum, and tin price series replace discontinued series for similar commodities found in previous editions.t = metric ton; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.1984929495104851107790998619842.533.483.64265.6124.6143.2174.30.122.402.020.392.40748.21,216.7187.61,071.3314.0602.7556.4768.22977632083931.880.39559.36153.8711.55176.22.39323.32,09760.930.6271.2275.7251.1187.81,44534.771,45346813,1241,13024.31.515,008569.140.4199.388.2138180.519858181839574767475808119852.353.492.07225.10107.40117.00180.700.092.251.920.403.98402.5615.2153.3943.7285.7654.8303.4522.42345961642921.370.36607.85483.719.64142.02.20288.12,03458.029.3266.1276.1250.1158.21,16031.281,47840812,03292823.71.475,108563.235.3176.287.6126142.119866971759955506758756319861.834.501.70185.6072.8077.20141.600.121.851.900.344.26174.6261.9145.5501.8183.4369.5125.2226.61833021632830.930.22238.24532.928.33133.42.41234.71,68846.612.1128.7142.3125.564.71,11224.691,2123585,43373919.41.223,422354.830.2136.060.710794.4198763595859475366651006619871.621.901.38186.6158.9661.34108.190.121.931.750.374.31250.4358.2131.3405.2136.9254.4146.7277.91752711643101.340.22319.24153.669.05179.43.23223.71,49939.113.9138.7XX80.61,303X1,4204845,42174918.01.073,947X25.1140.355.911294.519887163636159656862988419881.192.021.34226.2373.9080.23134.740.171.891.810.36X298.7424.1157.6442.8220.7391.8200.4328.02283482014081.050.23329.94134.359.66176.32.69230.11,46637.010.3119.3XX51.31,910X1,9534935,32799617.41.1110,404X27.0147.565.7119117.019897061605164597562969019890.941.661.54243.6080.6084.80153.000.211.951.770.42X264.7393.2152.1589.5262.4X190.9266.22093291873101.270.23334.74974.078.50171.02.66320.91,44137.912.4146.0XX65.61,552X2,1665126,4911,37520.11.5310,122X31.1131.475.2110101.0242World Resources 1992-93

Basic Economic Indicators 15Sources and Technical NotesTable 15.1 Gross NationalProduct and Official DevelopmentAssistance, 1969-89Sources: Gross national product (GNP),GNP per capita, average annual change inreal GNP, distribution of gross domesticproduction: The World Bank, unpublisheddata (The World Bank, Washington, D.C.,May 1991). GNP for certain centrally managedeconomies: U.S. Central IntelligenceAgency (CIA), The World Factbook 1990(CIA, Washington, D.C., 1990). Official developmentassistance (ODA): Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD), Development Co-operation(OECD, Paris, 1984,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990); OECD, Geographical Distribution of FinancialFlows to Developing Countries1981/84,1983/86,1984/87, and 2986/89(OECD, Paris, 1986,1988,1989,1991).Gross national product (GNP) is the sum oftwo components: the gross domestic product(GDP) and net factor income fromabroad. GDP is the final output of goodsand services produced by the domesticeconomy, including net exports of goodsand nonfactor services. Net factor incomefrom abroad is income in the form of overseasworkers' remittances, interest on loans,profits, and other factor payments that residentsreceive from abroad less paymentsmade for factor services (labor and capital).Most countries estimate GDP by the productionmethod. This method sums thefinal outputs of the various sectors of theeconomy (agriculture, manufacturing, governmentservices, and so on) from whichthe value of the inputs to production havebeen subtracted.GNP is calculated as in the World Bank'sWorld Bank Atlas. GNP in domestic currencywas converted to U.S. dollars using athree-year average exchange rate, adjustedfor domestic and U.S. inflation. However,the strong appreciation of the U.S. dollarthrough 1985 affected the conversion factorand may mask real growth in GNP and percapita GNP in some countries. Alternativemeasures of GNP exist. Of special interestare the United Nations' International ComparisonProgram (ICP) estimates of GDP(in U.S. dollars) using purchasing-powerparity for a basket of common goods andservices instead of exchange rates. TheseICP GDP estimates tend to raise GNP estimatesfor the poorest countries and lowerthem slightly for most developed countries.Traditional measures of the health of aneconomy, although counting the incomegenerated by the exploitation of natural resources,do not take into account their depletionor destruction. Many believe thatthis oversight leads to an overestimation ofeconomic growth and its sustainability andthat these factors should be included in anycalculation of GDP. Alternative measureshave been calculated for a few countries. InFigures 15.1 and 15.2, an adjusted net domesticproduct (adjusted NDP) was esti-Figure 15.1 Gross DomesticProduct and Net Domestic Productfor Indonesia, 1971-84(billion constant 1973 rupiah)14,000 -rSource: Robert Repetto, William Magrath, Michael Wells, etal., WastingAssets: Natural Resources in the National Income Accounts(World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C., 1989), p. 7.Figure 15.2 Gross DomesticProduct and Net Domestic Productfor Costa Rica, 1970-89(million constant colones)250,000 -rSource: R. Solorzano, R. de Camio, R. Woodward, et a/., AccountsOverdue: Natural Resource Depreciation in Costa Rica (TropicalScience Centers, San Jose, Costa Rica and World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C., forthcoming), p. 16.mated for the time series by deducting a calculatedamount for natural resource depreciationfrom NDP (which in turn wasderived from GDP) for Indonesia andCosta Rica. The adjusted NDP for CostaRica appears to parallel GDP, whereas, inthe case of Indonesia, the two lines appearto diverge.In many centrally managed economies,such as the U.S.S.R., the net material product(NMP) is a primary economic statisticinstead of GNP. The estimation of GNP inU.S. dollars for such economies is difficultand is an ongoing research project of theWorld Bank. Estimates of GNP for centrallymanaged economies are included as an attemptto show the relative magnitudes ofthose important economies. These GNP estimates,however, are not directly comparableto estimates made by the World Bankfor other economies. Few organizations arewilling to publish estimates of GNP forthese countries because of these difficulties.The average annual change in real GNP wasobtained by using World Bank data to calculatea geometric growth rate over the appropriatetime period.Distribution of gross domestic product doesnot always add to 100 percent because ofrounding.Net average annual official development assistance(ODA) is the net amount of disbursedgrants and concessional loans givenor received by a country. Grants includegifts in money, goods, or services, forwhich no repayment is required. A concessionalloan has a grant element of 25 percentor more. The grant element is theamount by which the face value of the loanexceeds its present market value because ofbelow-market interest rates, favorable maturityschedules, and repayment grace periods.Nonconcessional loans are not a componentof ODA.ODA contributions are shown as negativenumbers (in parentheses); receipts areshown as positive numbers. Data for donorcountries include contributions directly todeveloping countries and through multilateralinstitutions. The GNP data used to calculateODA as a percentage of GNP were derivedby using single-year exchange rates,not the three-year exchange rates discussedpreviously, since the three-year averagesshown here already smooth variations inexchange rates.Sources of ODA include the developmentassistance agencies of OECD and OPECmembers as well as other countries. Grantsand concessional loans to and from multilateraldevelopment agencies are also includedin contributions and receipts.OECD gathers ODA data through questionnairesand reports from countries andmultilateral agencies. Only limited data areavailable on ODA flows among developingcountries and from the previous membersof the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance(CMEA), an association of Central Europeancountries and the U.S.S.R. Thus,data in this table on CMEA's ODA donationsare restricted to those of the U.S.S.R.,which typically comprise 85-90 percent ofthe total. Data on net ODA from theU.S.S.R. are available for countries receivingthe largest amounts. These data havebeen added to their net ODA receipts.Table 15.2 External Debt Indicators,1979-89Source: The World Bank, World Debt Tables1990-91 (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., May 1990).The World Bank operates the Debtor ReportingSystem (DRS), which compiles reportssupplied by 107 of the Bank's membercountries. Countries submit detailed reportson the annual status, transactions,and terms of the long-term external debt ofpublic agencies and of publicly guaranteedprivate debt. Additional data are drawnfrom the World Bank, the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF), regional developmentbanks, government lending agencies,and the Creditor Reporting System (CRS).World Resources 1992-93243

15 Basic Economic IndicatorsThe CRS is operated by the Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) to compile reports from themembers of its Development AssistanceCommittee.Total external debt includes long-termdebt, use of IMF credit, and short-termdebt. Long-term debt is an obligation witha maturity of at least one year that is owedto nonresidents and is repayable in foreigncurrency, goods, or services. Long-termdebt is divided into long-term public debtand long-term publicly guaranteed privatedebt. Short-term debt is public or publiclyguaranteed private debt that has a maturityof one year or less. This class of debt is especiallydifficult for countries to monitor.Only a few countries supply these datathrough the DRS; the World Bank supplementsthese data with creditor-country reports,information from internationalclearinghouse banks, and other sources toderive rough estimates of short-term debt.Use of IMF credit refers to all drawings onthe Fund's General Resources Account. Useof IMF credit is converted to dollars by applyingthe average Special Drawing Rightexchange rate in effect for the year beingcalculated.The World Bank reports preliminary orestimated 1989 long-term public debt datafor 44 countries and shows the data as reportedfor the other 63 countries.Private debt is an external obligation of aprivate debtor that is not guaranteed by apublic entity. Data for this class of debt areless extensive than those for public debt;many countries do not report these datathrough the DRS. Data are currently availablefrom 20 countries, and World Bank estimatesare available for 7 others. Thesedata are included in the total when available.Disbursed long-term public debt is outstandingpublic and publicly guaranteed longtermdebt. Public debt is an obligation of anational or subnational government or itsagencies and autonomous bodies. Publiclyguaranteed debt is an external obligation ofa private debtor that is guaranteed for repaymentby a public entity.Long-term public debt as a percentage ofGNP is calculated using the disbursed longtermpublic debt described previously.GNP is defined in the Technical Note forTable 15.1. The GNP data used to derivedebt-to-GNP ratios were converted fromlocal currencies at a single-year exchangerate, rather than the three-year average exchangerate used to determine total GNP inTable 15.1. Total debt service comprises actualinterest payments and repayments ofprincipal made on the disbursed long-termpublic debt in foreign currencies, goods,and services in the year specified. Exports ofgoods and services are the total value ofgoods and all services sold to the rest of theworld. Current borrowing is the total longtermdebt disbursed during the specifiedyear. Current borrowing per capita was calculatedusing the 1989 mid-year population.Debt data are reported to the World Bankin the units of currency in which they arepayable. The World Bank converts thesedata to U.S. dollar figures, using the IMFpar values, central rates, or the current marketrates, where appropriate. Debt servicedata are converted to U.S. dollar figures atthe average exchange rate for the givenyear. Comparability of data among countriesand years is limited by variations inmethods, definitions, and comprehensivenessof data collection and reporting.Refer to the World Bank's World Debt Tablesfor details.Table 15.3 Central GovernmentExpendituresSources: For International Monetary Fund(IMF) members: International MonetaryFund, Government Finance Statistics Yearbook,Vol. XIV (International MonetaryFund, Washington, D.C., 1990). For non-IMF members: U.S. Central IntelligenceAgency (CIA), The World Factbook 1990(CIA, Washington, D.C., 1990).The IMF staff discusses government financialinformation with correspondents ineach government or central bank and compilesthis information as available. In general,these data are shown for consolidatedcentral government operations. There isgreat variability in the timeliness of dataand so the year represented by the data isshown. There is also great variability in theextent to which central government expendituresfund all government operations.Footnote "a" shows the percentage of totaltax revenue collected by the central governmentas a surrogate for the percentage of allexpenditures made by the central government.Therefore, care should be taken inmaking comparisons between countries.For example, much of the expenditures ofthe government of the United States aremade at the state and local levels and cannotbe easily compared to those of a countrywhere all expenditures are made by thecentral government.Calculations of total expenditures wereconverted from local currency using IMFexchange rate data. Expenditures as a percentof gross domestic product (GDP) and per capitaused IMF GDP and population estimates.Expenditures as a percentage of GDP forBurundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, the CentralAfrican Republic, Ecuador, EquatorialGuinea, Gabon, Honduras, Libya,Myanmar, Peru, Somalia, and South Africawere derived from World Bank GDP data.WRI calculated the share of total expendituresfor Burundi, France, Germany (FedRep), Guinea-Bissau, Italy, New Zealand,Paraguay, Sierra Leone, Tunisia, andZimbabwe. The CIA estimated only defensespending, and its data were used onlywhen IMF data were not available.Expenditures are shown for only seven selectedfunctional categories of governmentaffairs, and therefore these seven do notadd to 100 percent. Defense includes militaryand civil defense, military aid, and relevantapplied research. Education includesall levels from preprimary to tertiary.Health includes hospitals, clinics, practitioners,public health, medications and equipment,and relevant applied research. Socialsecurity, welfare, and housing includes socialsecurity, welfare, housing and communitydevelopment, water and sanitation (includingpollution abatement), and street lighting.Recreation, culture, and religion includesfunding for those activities. Agriculture, forestry,fishing, and hunting includes fundingfor those activities as well as relevant appliedresearch. Transportion and communicationincludes road, water, rail, and airtransport, and communications. Withineach category, relevant affairs and servicesnot explicitly named are also included.Table 15.4 World CommodityIndexes and Prices, 1975-89Source: The World Bank, unpublished data(The World Bank, Washington, D.C., August1991).Price data are compiled from major internationalmarket places for standard gradesof each commodity. For example, the gasolineseries refers to 91 /92-octane regulargasoline, in barges, f.o.b. (free on board)Rotterdam.The 1980 U.S. constant dollar figureswere derived by converting current averagemonthly prices in local currencies toU.S. dollars using the monthly average exchangerate. These monthly average U.S.dollar figures were then averaged to producean annual average dollar figure,which was adjusted to 1980 constant dollarsusing the Manufacturing Unit Value(MUV) index. The MUV index is a compositeprice index of all manufactured goodstraded internationally.The aggregate price indexes have the followingcomponents:1.33 Nonfuel commodities: individual itemslisted under items 4-10.2. Total agriculture: total food and nonfood agriculturalproducts.3. Total food: beverages, cereals, fats and oils,other foods.4. Beverages: coffee, cocoa, tea.5. Cereals: maize, rice, wheat, grain sorghum.6. Fats and oils: palm oil, coconut oil, groundnutoil, soybeans, copra, groundnut meal, soybeanmeal.7. Other food: sugar, beef, bananas, oranges.8. Nonfood agricultural products: cotton, jute, rubber,tobacco.9. Timber: logs.10. Metals and minerals: copper, tin, nickel, bauxite,aluminum, iron ore, manganese ore,lead, zinc, phosphate rock.The commodity prices reported here arespecific to the markets named. The commoditiesthemselves are often defined morespecifically than suggested by the table(e.g., Meranti logs Sabah SQ best quality;imported-frozen-boneless,90-percent-visible-leanbeef; Santos 4 coffee).244World Resources 1992-93

16. Population andHuman DevelopmentThe world's population now exceeds 5.3 billion and isexpected to reach 8.5 billion by 2025. Over the next 35years, our lands, forests, and other natural resourceswill come under increasing pressure with the additionof 3 billion people needing food, housing, education,and jobs. This chapter contains data on populationsize, distribution, and growth rate, as well as health, literacy,nutrition, and contraceptive use.The majority of people, 3.1 billion, live in Asia. Thatwill continue to be true in 2025, according to UnitedNations' population projections presented in Table16.1. Asia's share of the world's population is expectedto decline slightly, however, from its current level of59 percent of the global total. The greatest proportionalincrease will occur in Africa, where the populationis projected to nearly triple, from a 1990 level of642 million to 1.6 billion in 2025. In contrast, Europe isexpected to show the smallest rate of population increaseof all regions during this time period, growingjust 3.4 percent over 1990 levels. Table 16.1 also containsdata on the average annual increment to the populationand the average annual growth of the labor force.Table 16.2 shows that fertility rates have fallen for allregions over the past 20 years. But despite these decliningrates, total population will continue to grow for decadesto come because more people are entering theirreproductive years than ever before. Average globalfertility rates are expected to drop 27 percent by 1995from 4.5 children born to a woman in her lifetime duringthe 1970-75 period to 3.3 children during 1990-95.All regions of the world should be at or below the 3.3level, except Africa, where the fertility rate (6.0) will be82 percent higher than the projected global average.Global life expectancy at birth, also shown in Table16.2. should increase an average of seven years overthis two-decade period.Death rates of infants and children under age 5 havedeclined over the past two decades, as shown in Table16.3. Under-five mortality rates have dropped in allcountries for which data were available, although ratesremain high in much of the world. Fifty-three countrieswill have levels at or exceeding 100 under-fivemortality deaths per 1,000 live births during 1990-95.The European average is 13 per 1,000.Table 16.3 also presents information on the quantityand quality of food available in each country: averagecalories available as a percent of need and per capitatotal protein consumption. Although these data do notshow differential access to food within a country, theysuggest that 20 countries provide less than 90 percentof their population's caloric requirement. The maldistributionof calories, and of protein, can lead tohigh rates of malnutrition (wasting and stunting) evenwhen national numbers suggest that sufficient food isavailable. For example, although the Senegalese havefood available to meet 100 percent of their daily caloricrequirement, 8 percent of their children ages 12-23months display symptoms of wasting and 28 percentages 24-59 months are stunted.The drop in child and infant mortality rates, and theimprovement in life expectancy in general, are due toimproved health and living conditions. In Tables 16.4and 16.5, data are presented on access to health care,safe drinking water and sanitation services, numbersof trained medical personnel and percent of fully immunized1-year-olds. Trend data are only available onsafe water and sanitation and are limited to the 1980s.The World Health Organization's Expanded Programon Immunization, which seeks to protect childrenagainst six major diseases, has brought about the biggestadvance in global health care of the past decade.In 1990, immunization levels of 1-year-olds averaged80 percent or greater for countries outside North Americaand Europe.Table 16.5 shows that although literacy levels increasedbetween 1970 and 1990 in all but one country,literacy rates for women are still below 50 percent in45 of the countries for which data are available. In contrast,literacy rates for men are below 50 percent inonly 17 countries. Literacy levels are lower for womenthan for men in the majority of countries of the world.Table 16.5 also presents data on primary and postsecondarylevel educational attainment.Although a country's investment in human resourcesmay encourage individuals to lower fertilityrates, people are unlikely to do so without access tocontraception. Table 16.6 provides data on current levelsof contraceptive use as well as levels of affordableaccess to contraceptives. All European countries reportedthat more than 50 percent of married couplesuse contraception, a level reached by less than half theAsian and American countries reporting. In contrast,only one country in Africa (Mauritius) reported thatmore than 50 percent of its couples used contraception.World Resources 1992-93245

16 Population and Human DevelopmentTable 16.1 Size and Growth of Population and Labor Force,Population(millions)Average AnnualPopulation Change(percent)Average AnnualIncrement to the Population(thousands)Average Annual Growthof the Labor Force (a)(percent)WORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina Faso19502,516.44221.988.754.132.050.393.6519905,292.20642.1124.9610.024.631.309.0019955,770.29746.8228.7011.535.421.5510.4020258,504.221,596.8651.9524.7312.593.4023.711975-801.732.883.143.392.633.542.301985-901.742.992.722.703.003.712.661995-20001.632.982.732.853.233.243.021975-8073,80312,78754424185291511985-9088,15217,846634253129442241995-200098,10323,953840353190553391975-802.12.63.22.92.22.91.91985-901.82.63.81.92.23.22.11995-20001.52.83.62.22.73.52.3BurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChad2.464.470.151.312.665.4711.830.373.045.686.3614.040.443.516.4512.9836.550.927.9513.252.322.810.802.412.102.913.272.652.772.472.913.483.212.982.5890227 25389 148357 979132199533151131781.31.61.01.31.82.32.03.11.61.92.52.42.41.92.2ComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberia0.170.812.780.0620.330.2319.570.470.294.902.550.516.270.730.820.552.2712.000.4152.430.3549.241.170.8615.035.760.9624.031.772.580.662.6814.540.4758.390.4057.141.380.9817.616.701.0728.982.053.031.706.5739.331.0990.360.83126.622.881.8635.4415.271.9279.114.437.254.062.853.864.492.38(0.71)2.444.703.151.761.454.743.822.413.073.453.163.782.882.392.422.673.472.893.152.861.993.582.853.163.633.353.833.051.902.602.993.092.583.103.122.203.812.873.30144428812917(1)8883419181623457830531766413111,18381,23137234381541878747752698613161,164111,8454627591226251,217631093.12.22.4X2.41.22.00.91.92.71.94.53.72.12.72.51.92.6X2.61.42.00.71.42.81.71.43.62.12.42.72.52.6X2.82.02.21.21.73.12.01.63.72.22.8LibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritania1.034.232.883.520.834.5512.008.759.212.025.4514.1110.4910.802.3412.8434.0124.7324.775.124.372.913.292.132.463.653.183.523.042.733.543.283.433.222.921192381881393615235328326052 211503393377733.72.22.61.91.83.52.12.62.62.93.42.42.72.93.3MauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCuba0.498.956.200.672.4032.942.122.501.942.4213.689.190.267.891.333.534.7612.182.442.73220.360.210.0713.740.865.851.0825.0615.661.787.73108.547.247.334.157.5035.2825.200.7927.323.538.1818.7935.578.459.71427.230.260.1926.523.0210.611.1428.3017.922.089.10127.698.608.424.748.4439.3529.130.9432.974.149.0822.6741.8110.2211.34453.250.260.2127.563.3711.091.4245.6535.424.7021.48280.8918.8516.9910.0518.7065.3659.612.2584.929.8413.6353.1499.3726.2622.62595.620.300.3131.925.2512.991.592.272.832.703.153.353.272.842.155.032.223.083.123.422.702.583.202.863.402.971.470.282.501.132.980.791.172.582.653.193.143.303.412.782.493.262.222.883.443.663.072.383.673.143.753.161.290.162.390.882.641.031.012.182.683.173.333.173.412.862.752.852.082.873.473.683.221.793.473.253.652.921.090.451.920.661.900.7315415319331632,4171561466623859453416593661543877001791965,26713263637512607389532253,30522719097225743676259141011846301,0342892835,290042287510612652514713304,385320259139259864899361,3341451708581,4754093575,0281418667833.44.14.51.82.03.23.33.31.03.61.32.72.22.92.23.52.91.92.83.02.71.9 X3.14.03.22.43.21.92.42.52.72.82.01.21.42.82.92.32.92.33.12.92.33.32.81.41.5X1.02.52.31.92.92.12.92.73.03.12.11.62.12.83.22.63.12.62.63.12.63.63.11.41.4X0.82.40.9Dominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHonduras2.351.942.973.261.407.175.259.206.515.147.925.9410.627.225.9711.4511.3021.6713.2311.512.422.052.771.683.462.221.932.882.013.181.712.512.812.072.751308817987116151972471251511411593201581763.23.02.10.93.53.33.33.12.13.92.63.23.42.33.8JamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela1.4028.011.100.890.64152.27111.5917.152.7753.446.0811.953.310.421.357.630.222.245.012.4688.603.872.421.28249.22296.7232.327.31150.3713.1732.9810.590.804.2821.550.423.0919.742.6097.974.542.661.38258.16325.6734.268.42165.0814.2436.1811.930.834.8923.850.463.1922.213.45150.069.223.861.98299.88493.7345.5118.29245.8119.7754.2019.921.169.1837.350.663.6938.001.162.572.812.261.331.062.281.612.592.311.482.292.880.683.202.63(0.70)0.593.421.212.203.362.071.680.812.011.272.762.071.661.972.560.152.932.081.940.562.610.991.812.951.691.510.601.711.122.881.671.401.702.201.442.481.931.520.552.14241,6997342142,3575,1964371352,651159583218593427(1)17472291,84412047211,9885,6883981892,9612106202541117427 817484261,85314447221,5875,8173952612,88120764327712129484 7185013.34.42.72.51.82.32.90.82.13.42.52.52.74.03.53.41.60.54.82.63.23.92.82.10.92.21.22.82.12.12.53.02.62.92.82.90.83.22.22.73.92.22.00.82.11.72.72.11.42.22.82.42.72.72.51.02.8World Resources 1992-93246

Population and Human Development 161950-2025 Table 16.1ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.Sources:Notes:(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsPopulation(millions)1950 1990 1995 20251,377.26 3,112.70 3,413.34 4,912.488.960.1241.780.734.35554.760.49357.5679.5416.915.161.2683.631.249.7320.360.151.761.446.110.7617.838.180.4139.5120.990.033.201.027.683.5020.0120.810.0729.953.320.99392.521.236.948.647.2512.394.274.0141.8349.9918.397.579.340.142.9747.100.300.3110.113.2724.828.4116.3128.017.014.6950.6216.35180.0812.658.220.291.911.610.1116.560.52115.591.528.251,139.060.70853.09184.2854.6118.924.60123.464.0121.7742.792.044.142.7017.892.1941.6819.141.50122.6362.410.3714.132.7217.2212.5355.7055.871.5966.699.202.49498.373.257.589.859.0115.675.144.9856.1461.3216.2510.0510.550.253.7257.060.370.3514.954.2138.4210.2923.2739.198.446.6157.2423.81288.6026.4816.870.763.393.870.3223.120.60132.221.709.211,222.560.73946.72201.8060.3922.414.96125.904.7423.9744.662.354.793.0120.042.5046.2821.521.81141.5269.940.4417.122.8718.3415.0059.6161.581.7874.4811.072.93504.253.527.609.859.0415.875.165.0357.1461.1116.2210.1210.510.263.9057.110.380.3615.414.2739.3710.4323.8239.928.516.6857.8624.39298.6228.3417.900.823.534.340.3740.481.00234.993.0713.991,512.590.901,442.39285.91113.8349.996.91127.509.8833.0651.633.788.604.7030.124.8372.6234.974.75267.11111.510.8644.753.3224.5734.0680.9187.702.65117.4928.176.40515.215.017.349.378.9417.184.885.1260.3755.1415.7710.0810.200.314.9652.960.360.3916.824.5045.0710.9425.7542.278.586.7959.6625.99352.1238.2123.041.124.127.290.741975-80Average AnnualPopulation Change1.860.874.882.831.70(2.07)1.430.652.082.143.083.752.310.932.341.951.556.241.16(0.72)2.322.782.102.675.012.642.535.845.131.301.713.362.442.0913.972.233.502.360.451.94(0.08)0.110.320.680.250.290.44(0.09)(0.13)1.280.340.911.360.350.092.090.710.390.891.430.881.060.29(0.06)0.040.870.851.491.511.910.192.463.01(percent)1985-90 1995-20001.87 1.682.63 2.743.67 2.542.67 2.602.15 2.312.48 1.751.45 1.221.04 0.772.07 1.911.93 1.602.74 2.603.48 3.231.66 1.420.43 0.403.25 3.191.81 1.720.95 0.773.40 2.342.82 2.640.25 1.982.64 1.852.74 2.572.09 2.002.48 2.253.79 3.673.44 2.752.49 2.054.16 2.703.96 3.791.25 0.841.33 1.143.611.532.083.262.153.763.070.251.830.07(0.03)0.110.210.080.300.350.10(0.48)0.23(0.18)0.970.92(0.03)0.320.490.630.280.650.250.480.300.220.420.220.580.781.481.371.780.872.263.283.451.321.631.872.033.563.160.231.500.03(0.03)0.080.38(0.02)0.180.35(0.12)0.000.140.040.730.930.030.040.350.540.280.500.300.440.370.120.240.180.410.641.241.041.400.712.2C2.77United Nations Population Division and International Labour Office.a. World and regional labor force totals are totals only of countries shown.Other world and regional totals include countries not listed here.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.Average AnnualIncrement to the Population(thousands)1975-80 1985-90 1995-200045,856 55,506 59,840137152,32820(139)13,773413,6313,0581,111454851,057653405697436(19)30143676372442,1131,15012424302432721,0728831021,134204412,15449(5)11281021314236(53)(22)1193624519907981631013519138924(3)211902,215408172,8893119215,908716,7823,3901,3976047352512037739764109744356826446523,8791,45914508332214148201,105481,358315711,233575(2)103341519460(78)23(18)234(15)129312244261091171928678163,6744216815,324618,9653,3731,67478573513164430350581356338969971513734,1771,50813714252165658131,042351,5904311001,153552(2)76109201(74)014423716018412200321061501016126 13 1229 2671 83 1016 10 113282141241372,2123792231061021,950361191Average Annual Growthof the Labor Force {a}(percent)1975-80 1985-90 1995-20002.2 2.0 1.41.011.32.21.80.62.61.21.72.23.14.22.50.50.32.82.49.60.9(0.8)3.73.02.31.96.33.02.15.26.14.22.73.42.81.614.72.22.02.50.73.01.00.9(0.1)0.81.30.60.80.60.91.2(0.8)2.71.10.61.11.91.32.00.42.3(0.1)0.81.20.20.60.71.64.64.03.02.00.81.90.92.02.43.23.72.30.84.42.92.14.32.13.52.82.91.92.42.32.52.55.13.71.11.53.62.12.12.82.73.13.00.52.60.40.3(0.0)0.50.50.50.6(0.1)0.30.40.21.31.60.5(0.0)0.91.00.90.50.80.71.00.40.22.22.82.91.91.70.91.31.72.03.14.11.90.14.02.71.73.02.22.42.52.81.72.23.03.02.32.43.30.51.74.21.41.91.72.43.63.20.22.1(0.1)(0.0)0.40.7(0.1)0.20.4(0.8)0.10.20.31.21.5(0.2)(0.4)1.30.10.40.90.80.80.60.1(0.3)2.22.42.7XXX0.20.70.51.61.61.9XXX0.20.70.71.11.12.1XXXWorld Resources 1992-93247

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Population and Human Development 16Structure, 1970-95 Table 16.2ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)Crude Birth Rate(births per 1,000population)1970-75 1990-9534.8 26.951.636.048.541.039.930.618.038.238.244.147.427.419.250.035.828.844.444.432.134.741.537.647.149.647.536.931.347.621.228.946.635.134.533.037.654.848.215.731.913.713.616.218.014.613.216.311.311.815.915.721.022.116.011.817.515.416.817.719.519.319.513.614.214.518.218.152.024.840.638.236.520.816.831.026.633.140.520.811.538.824.515.425.744.229.627.734.429.736.343.241.930.428.441.816.320.742.520.026.920.330.350.846.312.821.911.511.912.213.911.011.813.410.811.4Life Expectancyat Birth(years)1970-75 1990-9556.0 64.738.0 43.563.5 71.644.9 52.942.3 50.040.3 51.063.2 70.971.4 76.650.3 60.449.3 62.755.9 67.157.0 66.271.6 76.373.3 78.856.6 67.961.5 71.161.5 70.867.3 73.940.4 51.065.0 67.163.0 70.853.852.543.349.049.057.962.553.969.565.057.059.657.962.550.342.543.471.567.770.571.471.270.073.670.772.470.671.263.762.553.567.959.065.070.065.874.571.667.267.166.271.063.952.653.475.372.875.375.673.172.476.275.976.876.074.5Percentage of Populationin Specific Age GroupsTotal Fertility Rate 1975 19951970-75 1990-95 65

16 Population and Human DevelopmentTable 16.3 Mortality and Nutrition, 1970-95WORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela9 93Estimated and ProjectedCrude Death Rate(deaths per1,000 population)Infant Death Rate(infant deaths per1,000 live births)Child Deaths {a}(deaths of children< 5 years old per1,000 live births)1970-75 1990-95 1970-75 1990-95 1970-75 1990-951263 144 9410 10 46 20 52 277 5 49 33 67 4019 13 137 94 233 14715 7 132 61 200 8425 19 173 127 291 21426 18 136 85 255 16717 10 95 58 136 7824 17 173 127 275 21721 16 143 110 228 17320 13 119 86 200 13812 7 82 37 149 7022 16 132 95 250 20525 18 166 122 281 20518 12 135 89 175 11319 13 90 65 145 10119 13 129 8723 16 154 112240X133X16 9 150 57 240 10024 18 157 117 271 19523 18 155 122 262 23320 16 132 94 223 15327 20 179 132 337 26116 12 107 81 183 12927 20 177 134 305 23027 21 183 140 276 20517 10 98 64 161 9919 11 130 89 180 11920 14 181 126 262 18715 8 117 6819 13 172 110180X96X24 19 191 138 334 23925 19 203 159 358 27124 18 160 117 266 1957 6 55 20 77 2416 8 122 68 190 9622 17 168 130 289 21918 11 134 97 226 15925 19 166 124 281 20920 14 135 96 250 15721 16 140 112 237 18624 16 122 80 275 20429 22 193 143 358 27123 18 155 122 262 23313 9 110 62 153 8021 14 145 99 245 15318 11 144 107 215 15519 13 130 97 219 15819 13 129 85 204 13612 6 120 44 180 7919 14 116 94 194 15319 13 117 75 214 14518 12 100 72 164 11315 9 93 55 151 9910 9 39 22 52 349 9 33 10 38 12X X X X X X7 8 16 7 20 86 4 51 17 64 217 7 36 13 45 1510 6 94 57 132 7211 7 110 53 137 6913 8 95 48 162 8218 12 135 86 232 15314 7 110 57 171 898 6 42 14 48 209 5 71 36 100 6013 7 100 50 150 767 5 43 21 68 307 6 30 14 37 209 9 18 8 21 1010 7 84 52 113 689 9 49 29 58 3419 12 151 93 244 14310 8 91 57 125 779 6 70 19 79 239 6 73 37 102 6111 7 95 57 136 7910 7 79 48 X X7 6 53 39 82 5513 8 110 76 1678 6 49 28 6310031MaternalDeaths(annual, frompregnancy, per100,000 livebirths)1980-88130XX250810X3006060096050900X740320XXX1,1001,000XX170XX80240100XX100300300X4208002106004501,10083660X340X310300X150480694933629747011023050110824757548694801204711019010038088893859Wasting(percent ofchildrenaged 12-23months)1980-89Stunting(percent ofchildrenaged 24-59months)1980-89414XXXX19 51XX10 602 43326XXXXXX1023172019 X2 32XX19 43XXX351539XXXX10 4273 2324XX17568611634243716 226X 34XXX233821X53782814 43X XXX13 XXX17X1037423425543X X2 3147X36X X31 8X326X X36817 512 346 7XX X227 245 4XXXX251231110127439921XX343XXX 164 7Per CapitaAverageCaloriesAvailable(as percentof need)1987-891187798102968695116897681117112X133X7010699989510793102104142969095113125124718698988410080841278611395931299289X9613411813012513610410210289991171311001101201381178211410511111012112096129105121Per CapitaTotalProteinConsumption(grams/day)1987-89715876455573706152604855425154X84X516356495151596643815161637868812863644951683861795862495183483353549610374100657448555650546578546470111651015461705852697359708265250World Resources 1992-93

Estimated and ProjectedPopulation and Human Development 16MaternalDeathsWastingStuntingTable 16.3Per CapitaAverageCrude Death Rate(deaths per1,000 population)Infant Death Rate(infant deaths per1,000 live births)Child Deaths {a}(deaths of children< 5 years old per1,000 live births)(annual, frompregnancy, per100,000 livebirths)(percent ofchildrenaged 12-23months)(percent ofchildrenaged 24-59months)CaloriesAvailable(as percentof need)1970-75 1990-95 1970-75 1990-95 1970-75 1990-95 1980-88 1980-89 1980-89 1987-89ASIA12 8 99Fiji9 6 45 24 58 27XXX108New Zealand8 8 16 9 20 116X X129Papua New Guinea17 11 105 53 152 67 900XX91Solomon IslandsX XX X X X 10 153482Afghanistan26 22 194 162 340 298690X XBahrain8 3 55 12 73 2727XX83XBangladesh21 14 140 108 228 168600284 7086Bhutan21 16 153 118 240 178 1,710 56 XCambodia23 15 181 116 271 169XXX97China9 7 61 27 83 3644841112Cyprus10 8 29 10 33 14XXXXIndia16 10 135 88 218 130340XX99Indonesia17 97 114 65 173 994501146125Iran, Islamic Rep15122 40 190 1381202355 132Iraq15 7 96 56 138 74XXX122Israel7 7 23 10 27 14 5XX123Japan7 8 12 5 15 716XX125Jordan14 5 82 36 116 45XXX110Korea, Dem People's Rep8 5 47 24 61 2641XX120Korea, Rep9 6 47 21 61 2626 X X121Kuwait5 2 43 15 55 196X 214XLao People's Dem Rep23 15 145 97 217 139 20 44116Lebanon9 8 48 40 62 XXXX X129Malaysia9 5 42 20 62 28 59X123Mongolia13 8 98 60 X X100XX101Myanmar14 9 100 59 120 741401775115Nepal21 13 153 118Oman20 6 145 34240271178129830X14X69X94XPakistan18 11 140 98 226 147500174295Philippines11 7 64 40 101 6293 742104Qatar12 4 57 26 76 32X XXXSaudi Arabia17 7 120 58 186 77X X X118Singapore5 6 19 7 23 105411141Sri Lanka8 6 56 24 79 36601934104Syrian Arab Rep12 6 88 39 125 49280XX124Thailand9 7 65 24 91 395010 28 104Turkey12 8 138 62 184 75210 XXXX126United Arab Emirates10 4 57 22 76 32X131Viet Nam14 8 120 54 175 77140126084Yemen (Arab Rep)22 14 168 107 290 171X15 b 61 b 86 b(People's Dem Rep)23 14 168 107 290 171XX b X b X bEUROPE10 11 24 11 28 13Albania7 6 58 32 77 42X XX114Austria13 12 24 9 28 1079XX133Belgium12 12 19 8 22 10XX150 cBulgaria9 12 26 14 30 1613X X147Czechoslovakia11 11 21 13 24 1410 X X146Denmark10 11 12 6 15 84XX136Finland10 10 12 57 14 76X X117France11 10 1619 814X X137Germany (Fed Rep)12 12 22 8 26 1011XX130(Dem Rep)14 12 17 8 20 1016XX146Greece9 10 34 13 39 15 9XX152Hungary12 13 34 17 37 X726 XX139Iceland7 7 12 5 15XXX134Ireland11 8 18 8 21 1012XX 151Italy10 11 26 9 29 1010XX 139Luxembourg12 11 16 9 20 9XXXX cMalta9 9 22 9 24 11XXX131Netherlands8 9 12 7 15 85XX118Norway10 11 12 6 15 82XX125Poland8 10 27 17 31 X11XX132Portugal11 10 45 13 55 1712XX139Romania9 11 40 19 47 24 150XX123Spain8 9 21 967 25 9 11 XX145Sweden10 12 1012 7 5 XX110Switzerland9 10 1316 8 5 XX133United Kingdom12 12 17 8 20 99XX121Yugoslavia9 9 45 21 53 2422XX163U.S.S.R9 10 26 20 34 2448XX127OCEANIA10 8 41 23 52 27Australia9 8 17 7 20 88XX120Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, United Nations Children's Fund, United Nations Development Programme, and United NationsPopulation Division.Notes: a. Data are not necessarily comparable with infant death rate numbers because of differences in methodology.b. Data are for Yemen as a whole.c. Data for Belgium and Luxembourg are combined under Belgium.World and regional totals include countries not listed here.X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.Per CapitaTotalProteinConsumption(grams/day)1987-896156X43X5163X536084741039574807793708558886453X6053X8590468149851015160 bX b1038599104 c11010910198113101114112104135107107X c9998104101100981039499911001078998691044954World Resources 1992-93251

16 Population and Human DevelopmentTable 16.4 Access to Safe Drinking Water, Sanitation, andWORLDPercentage of Population with Access to:Safe Drinking WaterSanitation ServicesHealth ServicesUrban Rural Urban Rural1985-881980 1988 1980 1988 1980 1988 1980 1988 All Urban RuralNumber of TrainedMedical Personnel(latest year)Nurses andDoctors Midwives OtherAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuelaX8526X2790XXXXX36X508847XX857269188537X10080773780100100XX416048335060XXXX7010045X65X100XX100X8567894850X6491100100X656980100X82X3968X9691bX756670441001008713XX921005096X709092935518X599310062661006710010044X1001004679 d8350X90 e100 d7510010045597695100 d94100 d100X8676915589957978100100X73771001008875946578828589X1015X3120X21XXX3X2064XXXX33281511169073708598XXX32305525220X31XX31178X32X2836X68X334018840X43106593X17105117791660102179250X1946X7234966511XX2752182X115073392427X45228010493665922517X52206438 d2229X20 e7 d46613112174380100 d44100 d84X28104136604649196687X1715862187377472256589X4048X3840X34XXX17X434599XXX4754218913181009100795100XXX36X6053145X63XX2410040X100XX62X93X2580453940X51356295X893732991003910095571005990bX2542983580X35XXXX6994100X97XX646530X144 c100XX94349210061X39X4587 d5941X40 e100 d76427140 e147795100 d94X100X778672X8814 c10032 c100100X10055891008575855571646097X X15 204 31X 205 535 5X XX10XX 11XX X0 2X 2020 5010 34X XXXX 7XX17 151 X13 1819 X14 235 872 85X XX5X810X90 96X 19X 11X3 X3X X50 622 X6 355 5X X0 5 eX 25 dX 7710 16X 1510 10 eX 1448 34X 22X 100 d75 28X X82 93X X4 3626 3920 4810 1526 44X X12 12X X28 6888 97X X32 294XX4 134161814 3480 8689 600 1779 3660 6570 708830 a1889 a49 a6141X4530X8330 aXXX4690 bX6047XX8039X56801530 a1007039X414027 a40X27 aX51X76 a6190 b61 a2675 a71XXX80 aX80563450739045 a8380 a99X7163X976075X60 a60X82X100XX10051X44XXXX9761XXXXXX92100XXX50XXXXX100100100X997560XX50X90X99X1009040100100XXX100XX8047X85XX10095XXaaaaaabaaaa8090XXX92X90 aXXXX80XX85 a48 aX39XXXX7011 aXXXXXX4540XXX30XXXXX1005030X303025 aXX15 aX40X72 aX80 b57 a1750 a62XXX63 aXX4025X65XX6064 aXX2136XXX40X38 aXXXX9,056481238X131216X60XX31210X779,495X534328X817X1222,151X2215,019X262349142X4,908XX16011,294163311262325X2,09533X2293,453XX880X2254448,8602,53918,8503,5551,6643,5448102,8001,115X2,1102,1671,213501,20080,1004,032122,8189,68423,52011,0331252,45318,2003065,75624,0384746,5181,640X2,8991,503X196XX1682,746X53412,458X1,896XXXX78517,193X1,1525,565X1,2865,2231,230X22,207XX7,24874,033X1,3932,8303,416X12,986477X1,9739,353XX5,655X1,13432685,5395,40035,0625,1845,0389,0932,5376,3004,67587,3985,9175,4754,5213,212,70030,5051,066110,05232,15044,52014,7948873,58414,9001,4003,00015,21467,2811,910522X9,813196XXXX7406X161XX5,9073,366XXX1374,581X3501,018X351308200X467XX6,61120,1501,5502,1104785X4,189160X93411,831XX2,7733,238341331,9121,4927113151,2141,2571026142333,207250410238366,9507,71734923,2563,10012,2084,403331958,990282,3004,342252World Resources 1992-93

Population and Human Development 16Health Services, 1980s Table 16.4ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsSources:Notes:Percentage of Population with Access to:Safe Drinking WaterSanitation ServicesHealth ServicesUrban Rural Urban Rural1985-881980 1988 1980 1988 1980 1988 1980 1988 All Urban Rural90 92 49 68 100 X 55 75 X X X28 39 8 17 X 20 X X 29 80 17X 100 X 57 X 100 X 94 X X X1 4 45 X Xf X 7 f 65 X XX X 53 80 50X 95X X X26 37 40 89 21 3750 100 f 5X 24 f X 100X XX X XX 87 X 66 X 100100 100 100 100 100 10077 79 31 73 27 3810011004XXXXXX21 45 80 X XX 35 80 95 65X 18 93 97 78f XX 95 f X X XXX X X35 60 19X 40 29 40X 10075 X 100X 100 X 72 X 92X 100 f XX 97 f XX 99X XXX100 100 65 98 94 100 34 100X 100 f X 100 f X 100 f X 100 f97X98X95X86 91 61 49 100 99 100 100 93 97 86X 100 f X X X 100 f X3 X 100 X X21 61 12 17 11 X6 67 X X100 X 100 X 94 X 18 XX X XX 78 X 50 X 100 X 43X X X38 38 15 28 38 35 15 27X 33 100 1183 66 7X 33 16X X 1X2 X X XX 874210034 91 100 9072 99 20 35 42 408 55 99 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 fX90 ri77 e55XXX 100 rtX 100 dX 100 fX 100 fX 100 dX 100 fX 100 riX 100 riX 83 eX 100 eX 95 rtX 100 riX 100 riXX 100 ri100 dX 100 e84 100 rtXX 100 ri100 riX 100 dX 95 riX 95 rtX 100 rtX 100 fX 100 eX 100 riX 46 eX 100 dX X60 65X X3 5610 5XX9710093 a75 a70X90 a8038 qX gXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX96XXX100100X92 a85XX100XXWorld Health Organization and United Nations Children's Fund.a. 1980 data. b. 1983 data. c. Population served by sewer connection only. d. 1985 data. e. 1986 data. f. 1987 data. g. Data are for Yemenas a whole, h. Includes dentists, i. Population served by house connection only.0 = zero or less than 0.5 percent; X = not available; NA = not applicable.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX88NAX6080XX75XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXNumber of TrainedMedical Personnel(latest year)Nurses andDoctors Midwives Other2,95751814,94452X926,603911297,22816,69816,9189,44211,895181,1012,95845,12035,6572,8045513,9535,3943,88110,0314971,24034,8508,13264617,5441,0861,914a 8,5938,05836,4271,27819,8611,2344922,64119,45129,77624,71855,871 h12,80611,072173,116153,89537,94328,21234,7585455,180245,11666341332,1939,17673,19924,62940,050121,36221,5969,29892,17242,3651,170,000 h36,6103255,747269382,1351,14811,197164X759,4852,165429,315122,94543,2919,93126,895651,6602,596X70,7838,8316,753X15,9028,08341,5901,7073,46020,29519,8801,67237,6704,96711,34612,55062,58548,8413,328101,4482,9652,02213,37227,655X57,500106,96883,99182,951X269,301116,60021,81161,4222,72425,261X1023,18797172,448198,934XX148,31269,261X182,89791,253X139,4341,34240,9503,94130132919X242X1,784,42572521,05337,2302,4881,46517,010X623XX1,1342,088X2,93215,384X1,874802,050X951,2918902,2042,48713,71230,4129743,763159473,11022,28717,006117,9247,4359,73013,93489,276140,56330,2408,3794,5482931,1313,6974224539,0187,40336,74812,2876,55836,39243,7043,11735,06150,036587,200XXX301XWorld Resources 1992-93253

16 Population and Human DevelopmentTable 16.5 Education and Child Health, 1970-90WORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinam©UruguayVenezuelaPercentage of Population Age 25 Births ORT Use(a) Low-Adult Adultand Over Who HaveAttended (percentage Birth-Female MaleSome by Trained of diarrhea Weight Percentage of 1-Year-OldsLiteracy Literacy Completed Postsecondary Personnel episodes Infants Fully Immunized in 1990(percent) (percent) Primary School Education (percent) treated) (percent)1970 1990 1970 1990 Female Male Female Male 1983-88 1987-88 1980-88 TB DPT Polio Measles11 46 39 70 X X 0.1 0.5 15 16 9 99 89 89 8378 29 16 56 X XX X X 15 12 1788X 47 23 23 3816 23 32 X0.1 0.5 45 2692 67 67 7044 R5 37 84 21.8 b 21.6 b 0.5 b 1.4 b 77 6492 86 82 783 9 13 28 X X X X 30 16 84 37 37 4290 83 85 8080 56 55 5410 40 29 61X X 21 30 9 97 86 86 7519 43X 47X 66 X 0.1 0.5 X 24 13X 76 56 54 56X62 X X X XXX XXX 30 X97 88 87 7925 26 52X66 152 15 96 82 82 8218 20 42 X X2411 59 c 20 c 20 c 32X X X X X X X X 24 X 14 99 94 94 8719 44 50 70X X X X 6 16 90 79 79 7510 40 26 67 X X X 20 16 14 63 48 48 42X X X X X X X X 73 X 14 95 85 85 8520 34 50 63 X X 1.3 5.5 47 83 5 88 87 87 86X 37 X 64 X X X X 58 X X 97 78 75 88X X 8 XX X X 14 38 XX 57 44 44 3722 49 43 74 X X X X 92 10X96 78 78 76X 16 X 39 3.2 5.3 0.1 0.3 8514 99 90 93 7318 51 43 70 X X 0,1 0.7 40 21 17 81 57 56 607 13 21 35 X X X X 25 1 X 53 17 17 186 24 13 50 1.4X d 1.4 d 0.1 d 0.1 d 27 X 13 90 38 38 4219 59 44 80 X X X 28 54 15 80 74 71 5974 X 49 X 13.9 13.7 0.1 0.1 40 68 11 97 76 75 768 29 27 50 4.5 15.6 0.8 2.2 87 9 X 62 e ! 28 e 28 e 55 e13 50 60 75 1.7 14.8 0.1 1.8 76 60 X 90 c 84 c 84 c 7043 73X 56 88X X X X X 62 80 10 67 46 46 33184X 42 2.6 12.7 0.1 0.3 45 143 20 97 81 79 8024 11X 41 0.7 2.6 0.1 0.3 2717 82 42 42 4321 47 X X X X 20 23 11 75 28 28 3359 X 77 X X X 1.9 5.5 85 7 9 94 90 90 8410 38 34 61 2.8 8.6 X X 29 45 X 96 81 81 7914 21 29 45 1.2 f 4.2 f 0.0 f 0.2 f 28 14X 20X 59 46 46 58X2 X X6 X XX X X X X85 53 53 4117 40X 0.0 g 0.2 g 47 35 15 50 13 13 2114 40 35 62 X X X X 40 35 20 96 57 57 5421 37 43 64 2.9 10.2 0.1 0.5 22 24 17 92 84 83 83581 25 18 52 2.7 h 6.9 h 0.0 h 0.2 h 50 27 11 92 60 66 5911 18 31 XX X XX X 25 31 17 98 83 83 7514 5 36XX 2 12 X 31 c 18 c 18 c 30 cX X X X 35.6 37.2 3.1 4.3 X X 12 X X X X6X 12 28 43 X X XX XX 20 25 XX 73 62 62 57XX X XX 17.3 25.450 X96 c 89 c 89 c 85 c187 4810.6 i X i 0.2 i X i 60 14 14 93 c 85 c 82 c 83 c31 27 56 X X 0.5 2.3 15 21 20 94 61 61 5717 56 44 74 X X 1.3 4.3 68 48 8 99 90 90 8730 35 52 62 XXXX XXX XX XX 45XX 14 X 99 77 77 7422 61 61 8418 13 65 c 32 c 31 c 31 c37 65 66 810.2 0.6 59 14 97 79 78 7647 60 63 74X X X 69 26 15 71 73 72 69X X X XX X X X X X 1.9 5.3 93 X 16 95 91 90 87X X X X X X 1.2 3.4 80 X 10 80 84 80 81X X X X 83.7 83.7 34.7 40.2 99 X 6 X X X X87 93 88 93 34.1 35.5 5.4 6.2 96 78 10 92 95 95 9087 93 86 95 68.8 78.6 4.5 7.3 X 75 8 98 92 94 9465 82 69 85 16.3 20.2 1.3 2.5 57 51 16 68 69 90 9653 70 61 76 XXXX XXXX 1.9 g 2-7 g 35 45 15 60 76 76 7537 47 51 630.5 1.9 34 17 14 62 66 74 6817 47 26 590.4 XX 40 35 17 72 41 40 3150 71 55 763.350 66 20 71 84 87 9097 99 96 98 X X 1.8 2.2 89 15 8 98 86 87 7469 85 78 90 32.2 36.5 2.7 8.0 94 72 15 70 66 96 7857 X 58 X X X X X 41 38 15 81 65 86 8281X 88X 81X 88X 54.7 54.7 7.8 8.8 89 41 8X 83X 82 82 9968.8 69.6 1.9 3.9 98 60 83 j 83 j 69 j99 X 99 X 96.8 96.8 28.0 36.9 99 X 7 X X X X68 84 75 88 53.7 61.8 5.6 9.6 27 24 11 88 68 67 6189 95 94 98 X X 0.9 2.7 96 X 11 85 83 79 7375 88 85 92 32.6 37.0 2.5 4.3 22 36 79 90 78 76 6960 79 81 92 41.5 56.1 7.7 12.6 44 10X83 72 73 64X 95 X 95 X X X X 8012 X 83 81 6593 96 93 97 X X 10.0 7.9 97 40 8 99 88 88 8271 90 79 87 X X 5.5 8.5 82 30 9 63 63 72 62X X X X92 95 94 96 61.1 57.8 5.8 6.4 X 13 X 99 85 89 9546 71 68 85 X X 3.3 6.9 36 26 12 48 41 50 5363 80 69 83 15.9 17.7 4.1 5.9 95 39 878 78 81 93 7888 93 90 94 XX XX 5.9 8.6 98 197 99 99 9876 86 79 881.8 k 5.0 k 51 1295 87 93 82254World Resources 1992-93

Population and Human Development 16Table 16.5Percentage of Population Age 25 Births ORT Use{a} Low-Adult Adultand Over Who HaveAttended (percentage Birth-Female MaleSome by Trained of diarrhea Weight Percentage of 1-Year-OldsLiteracy Literacy Completed Postsecondary Personnel episodes Infants Fully Immunized in 1990(percent) (percent) Primary School Education (percent) treated) (percent)Against1970 1990 1970 1990 Female Male Female Male 1983-88 1987-88 1980-88 TB DPT Polio MeaslesASIA95 90 91 88Afghanistan213 44 1.0 7.7 0.6 5.311 20 30 25 25 20BahrainXX 82 10.2 22.4 2.2 5.0 98 X X X 95 95 86Bangladesh12 22 36 47 XX X 0.3 2.2 57 32 28 86 62 62 54BhutanX 25 XX 51X XX XX 40 XX 99 95 95 89Cambodia23 2248 X X4754 40 40 34ChinaX 62 X 84 37.7 72.2 0.5 1.5X 30 9 99 97 98 98CyprusX X X X XX XX 12.0 k X X X X X 90 90 74India20 34 47 621.1 3.8 33 23 30 97 92 93 87FijiX X X X 50.2 56.6 3.4 5.7 98X 14 99 97 96 84New ZealandX X X X X X 27.6 33.8 99 X5 X X X XPapua New Guinea24 38 39 65 5.4 12.8 X X 34 46 25 89 69 69 67Solomon IslandsX X X X X X 1.0 2.1 80 X 9 87 77 75 70Indonesia42 68 66 84 19.6 35.1 0.4 1.2 31 56 14 93 87 91 86Iran, Islamic Rep17 43 40 65 X X X X 82 385 95 93 92 83Iraq18 49 50 70 X X X X 50 51 9 96 75 75Israel83 X 93 X X X 20.9 25.4 100 X 7 X X XJapan99 X 99 X 99.2 99.4 9.5 19.5 100 X5 X X XJordan29 70 64 89 XX XX XX XX 83 535 X 92 92Korea, Dem People's RepX X X X65 52 X 99 98 99Korea, Rep81 94 94 99 X X 4.0 14.1 70 X 9 72 74 74Kuwait42 67 65 77 XX X 11.6 13.2 99 47 X c 94 c 94 cLao People's Dem Rep28 X 37 XX X X X 30 39 26 18 26Lebanon58 73 79 88 21.7 30.0 1.1 5.0 X 10 10 X 82 82Malaysia48 70 71 87 21.4 I 31.5 I X X 82 20 10 99 c 91 90Mongolia74 X 87 X X X X X 99 59 10 92 c 84 c 85 cMyanmar57 72 85 89 X X 1.5 2.5 57 21 16 75 m 69 m 69 mNepal3 13 23 38 X X 6.8 n X n 6 28 X 97 79 78OmanX X X X X X X X 60 197 93 96 96Pakistan11 21 30 47 X X 0.7 3.0 24 42 25 98 96 96Philippines81 90 84 90 55.4 58.4 15.1 15.3 57 14 18 96 88 88QatarX2 X X X XXX X 15.3 12.7 90X X 97 82 82Saudi Arabia48 15 73XX X X 74 32 67 99 94 94Singapore55 X 82X 2.0 4.8 100 X99 85 85Sri Lanka69 84 85 93 X X 0.8 1.4 87 77 28 88 90 90Syrian Arab Rep20 51 60 78 X X 0.4 2.2 37 31 11 92 90 90Thailand72 90 86 96 8.3 16.1 2.4 3.4 40 30 12 99 92 92Turkey34 71 69 90 XXX XX 1.5 5.7 78 X7 X 84 84United Arab Emirates7 X 24 X4.1 6.6 96 137 96 85 85Viet NamX 84 X 92X X X X 17 18 90 87 87Yemen (Arab Rep)1 26 9 53 X X X X 12 0 7 0 X 99 o 89 o 89 o(People's Dem Rep)9 26 31 53 X X X X X o X o X X o X o X 0EUROPEX X X XAlbaniaX X X X X X X X X X7 X X X XAustriaX X X XX X X 1.6 5.4X X6 X X X XBelgium99 X 99X X 5.3 p 9.9 p 100 X5 X X X XBulgaria89 X 94 X X X X X 100 X6 X X X XCzechoslovakiaX X X X X X 4.0 8.2 100 X6 X X X XDenmarkX X X X X X X X 100 X 6 X X X XFinlandX X X XX X X 11.7 16.2 100 X 4 X X X XFrance98 X 99 X X X X 99 X5 X X X XGermany (Fed Rep)X X X X X X 1.9 7.2 100 X6 X X X X(Dem Rep)X X X X X X 14.1 21.3 99 X6 X X X XGreece76 89 93 98 63.9 80.0 4.9 10.5 97 X6 X X X XHungary98 X -98 X 89.5 92.3 5.0 9.3 99 X 10 X X X XIcelandX X X X X XX X X X X X X X X XIrelandX X X X X6.5 9.3X X47 X X X XXItaly93 96 95 98 X X 2.9 5.4 100 XX X XLuxembourgX X X X X X X X X X X X X X XMaltaX X X X X X X X X X X X X X XNetherlandsX X X X X X 4.8 9.6 100 X X X X X XNorwayX X X X X X 8.8 15.2 100 X4 X X X XPoland97 X 98 X 81.5 87.9 4.4 7.2 100 X8 X X X XPortugal65 82 78 89 29.2 50.3 0.9 2.5 87 X5 X X X XRomania91 X 96 X X X 4.6 n X n 100 X 6 X X X XSpain87 93 93 97 50.7 58.7 5.8 8.3 96X 1 X X X XSwedenX X X X X XX 14.1 q 16.7 q 100 X 4 X X X XSwitzerlandX X X X X X X 99 X 5 X X X XUnited KingdomX X X X X X 8.0 X 100 X 7 X X X XYugoslavia76 88 92 97 X X 4.8 9.0 86X 7 X X X XU.S.S.R.97 X 98 X 88.6 96.4 12.7 15.4 98 X6 X X X XOCEANIAAustraliaX X X X X X 10.0 33.2 99X6XXXXXXXXSources: United Nations Children's Fund, United Nations Development Programme, and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.Notes: a. Oral Rehydration Therapy, b. Population age 12 and older, c. 1989 data. d. Data are for males and females combined, age 7 and over. e. 1988 data. f. Populationage 5 and older, g. Population age 10 and older, h. Population age 6 and older, i. Data are for males and females combined, age 10 and older, j. 1989 data, forTrinidad only. k. Population age 20 and older. I. Data for all ages. m. Government-controlled areas only. n. Data are for males and females combined, o. Data arefor Yemen as a whole, p. Population age 14 and older, q. Population age 25-74.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.62XX87999598 c13399086 c73 m6796978579908783878076758774 oX 0World Resources 1992-93255

16 Population and Human DevelopmentTable 16.6 Contraceptive Prevalence and AvailabilityPercentage of Married Couples withWORLDDate ofLatestSurveyPercentage of Married Couples Currently UsingAny SterilizationInjectableIUD Condom Barriers MethodsVaginal OtherMethod Female Male Pill{a}Affordable Access toFemaleSterilizationPill Condom Abortion OtherAFRICAAlgeriaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCentral African RepCote d'lvoireEgyptEthiopiaGhanaGuineaKenyaLesothoLiberiaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICAAntiguaBarbadosCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominicaDominican RepEl SalvadorGrenadaGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaSt. LuciaSt. VincentTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruUruguayVenezuelaASIAAfghanistanBangladeshChinaIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepiKorea, RepLebanonMalaysia1986/871981/821988X19871978X1980/811988/89X1988X1988/8919771986X198419871981198519871981/8219831986X198119891988X198819881988/89XX198819881980/8119841986198719811986198819851987198919871988/891987198119841981198819871988X19891986X19901989197519901986X19771972/731989198819881987X1974X19881985X19881971198436933X92X337X13X2756X751753651011X48920X34505XX435347737070495047312310415553275843585374X3066X6653314846X49231714348X15X5627X7753511 00 04 0X X0 0X XX X0 02 0X X1 0X X5 01 01 0X XX e X e0 00 05 02 00 X0 00 0X X8 01 03 0X X1 012 X i1 0X XX2 X011 X e14 031 1314 122 015 b X33 030 12 01103 013 014 019 17 032 011 b X13 X e8 023 13X X4 027 1X X21 118 09 07 06 0X X8 00 09 127 831 b X3 0X X1 XX X3 15 0X X371827015X00X015X2X513X1102123001X1546X091XX3126161121101798844132010111221241415X225X1489147X15194116X9X161100X314121 20 05 6X X1 0X 0X X0 00 16X X0 1X X3 40 00 1X X0 00 00 06 20 30 00 00 1X X14 60 16 2X X0 11 170 0X XX X0 13 12 4X 61 8X X10 20131 32322 10 48 23 101 21 62 17 31 40 2X X1 511X X2 121 120 65 61 7X X0 90 01 2X e 30X 210 13X X1 1X XX 30 11X XX e 7X 11 21 0 50 00X0 911X X0 80 0 2X X X0 0 22 0X 1XX0 18X X X1 0 90 0 30 0 1X XX0 X e 60 030 0 111 1 301 070 X 40 00X 909XX3 X h 30 031 03X X X0 1 311 190 02X XXX X X1 0 76 325 328 2 413 1 112 024 121 032 034481 401 112 0 89 011 3821 42 144 137 X e 412 5811 65X XX0 0 182 1 9X XX3 2 111 1 113 233 1 131 1 23X XX5 1 120 X e 02 072 015 042 X e 4X XX1 12X X X43 0 140 04X XX10 2778 X 350 31XX80 b210 bX81533XX216X2X1 bXX4062X15XXX3b4846X284 bXX100 b4598X6566X5022 b883290X25XX22 b802X50609060XX6917XX8392 b85 b30XXXX25490 b15604065955060X589730X25450X7X45XX9824X1023X7XX487322140XXX10090100X9089X602894X97X80XX1009045X90859090XX9094XX8684409050X100X30X982999c,ddc,ddc,dcccc2543956560X5158430X25816X8X75XX802951526X15XX6341653050XX10090100X9094X65708810097X80XX10010050X95909090XX899458X9384609140X10010020X982899X85 XXX 29XfXXXXXX XX XX XX50XX58 XX XX XX XX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX1553fgX15XXX348XXXXXXX68 XX XX XXX X38 gX XX X83 XX 15 f100 XX XX X7 XX XX X32 XX X2 100X XgXXXXX785XXXX50XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX63 kX XX 35 f92 X65 XX 39 fX XX95100XXXXXX63 k"56World Resources 1992-93

Population and Human Development 16Table 16.6Percentage of Married Couples withAffordable Access toDate ofPercentage of Married Couples Currently UsingFemaleLatest Any SterilizationInjectableVaginal Other Steril-Survey Method Female Male PillIUO Condom Barriers Methods (a) ization Pill Condom Abortion OtherMyanmarX X X X X X X X XX 6 13 5 44 XNepal1986 14 6 6 1 1 012 1 X0 29 14 9 X XPakistan1984/85 8 2 0 1 1 2 013 30 39 X XPhilippines1986 44 11 b X 6 0 1 X e 23 16 b 40 38 X XSingapore1982 74 22 1 12 X i X i 24 141 100 b 100 c,d 100 100 XBelgium1982/83 81 17 b X 32 0 8 6 0 17 100 100 100 95 XBulgaria1976 76 1 1 2 0 2 2 X 69 XX XX 100 100 68 kCzechoslovakia1977 X X X X X X X XX 100 100 100 kDenmark1975 63 X X 22 0 9 25 44 100 b 100 100 100 XFinland1977 80 4 1 11 0 29 32 13 100 b 90 100 90 XFrance1988 81 7 0 30 0 26 4 X e 15X 100 c 100 98 XGermany (Fed Rep)1985 78 10 2 34 0 15X 6 1 10 90 100 m 100 m 95 m XGreeceX X X X X X X X XX 100 100 100 XHungary1986 73 X X 39 0 19 4 1 11X 100 100 100 XIrelandX X X X X X X X XX 87 i 88 83 X XItaly1979 78 14 0 14 0 27 13 2 46 X 100 100 56 XNetherlands1988 7611 41 X n8 X e 4 100 b 100 100 100 XNorway1977 71 4 2 13 0 28 16 27 100 100 100 100 XPoland1977 75 X X 7 0 2 14 3 49X X X X XPortugal1979/80 66 1 0 19 2 4 6 2 34X 100 100 X XRomania1978 58 X X 1 0 0 3 1 53X X X 100 XSpain1985 59 4 0 16 X e 6 12 X e 22X 80 70 30 XSweden1981 78 3 b X 23 0 20 25 X h 7 100 | 100 100 100 XSwitzerland1980 71 16 b X 28 0 11 8 2 6 100 100 100 90 XUnited Kingdom1983 81 12 12 29 0 9 15 27 100 i 100 100 100 XYugoslavia1976 55 X X 5 0 2 2 3 43 30 100 100 100 XUSSR.X X X X X X X X XXX 10 20 90 XOCEANIAAustralia1986 76 28 10 24 X 5 4 14 90 100 85 90 XFiji1974 41 16 09X 8 0 5 6 06X X X X XNew Zealand1976 70 11 29 X e 4 8 X e 10 95 95 100 95 XPapua New GuineaX X X X X X X XX 4 17 60 X 10 fSri Lanka1987 62 25 5 4 3 2 2 0 22 68 h 86 86 X 56 fSyrian Arab Rep1978 20 0 0600 12 090 1 1 1 5 X 65 45 X XThailand1987 68 22 20 7 1 0 2 74 b 95 95 X 43 tTurkey1988 63 2 60 14 7 2 32 22 74 74 49 XViet Nam1988 53 3X 31 1 X e 18 30 X 20 50 60 kYemen (Arab Rep)1979 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 002 I X 70 I X 45 k,lEUROPEAustria1981/82 71 1 0 40 0 8 4 3 15 100 b 100 100 X XSources: Population Crisis Committee and the United Nations Population Division.Notes: a. Includes periodic abstinence (such as rhythm method), abstinence, withdrawal, and douche, or a combination of methods, b. Both sexes, c. Includes access tolUDs. d. Includes access to injectables. e. Included in "Other Methods." f. Access to menstrual regulation only. g. Access to injectables only. h. Included under"Condom." i. Included under "Vaginal Barriers." j. Male sterilization only. k. Access to lUDs only. I. Data for both Yemen Arab Republic and People's DemocraticRepublic of Yemen, m. Data for both Federal Republic of Germany and German Democratic Republic, n. Included under "Pill."0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not covered in survey or not reported.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.Sources and Technical NotesTable 16.1 Size and Growth ofPopulation and Labor Force,1950-2025Sources: United Nations Population Division,World Population Prospects 1990 (U.N.,New York, 1991); International Labour Office(ILO), unpublished data (ILO, Geneva,1986).Population refers to the midyear population.Most data are estimates based on populationcensuses and surveys. All projectionsare for the medium-case scenario(see the following discussion). The averageannual population change takes into accountthe effects of international migration.Many of the numbers in Tables 16.1-16.3are estimated using demographic modelsbased on several kinds of demographic parameters:a country's population size, ageand sex distribution, fertility and mortalityrates by age and sex groups, growth ratesof urban and rural populations, and the levelsof internal and international migration.Information collected through recent populationcensuses and surveys is used to calculateor estimate these parameters, butaccuracy varies. The United Nations PopulationDivision's Department of InternationalEconomic and Social Affairs (DIESA)compiles and evaluates census and surveyresults from all countries. These data are adjustedfor overenumeration and underenumerationof certain age and sex groups(infants, female children, young males),misreporting of age and sex distributions,changes in definitions, and so forth, whennecessary. These adjustments incorporatedata from civil registrations, populationsurveys, earlier censuses, and, when necessary,population models based on informationfrom socioeconomically similarcountries, (Because the figures have beenadjusted, they are not strictly comparableto the official statistics compiled by theUnited Nations Statistical Office and publishedin the Demographic Yearbook.)After the figures for population size andage/sex composition have been adjusted,the data are scaled to 1985. Similar estimatesare made for each five-year periodbetween 1950 and 1980. Historical data areused when deemed accurate, also with adjustmentsand scaling. However, accuratehistorical data do not exist for many developingcountries. In these cases, the PopulationDivision uses available informationand demographic models to estimate themain demographic parameters.Projections are based on estimates of the1985 base-year population. Age- and sexspecificmortality rates are applied to thebase-year population to determine the numberof survivors at the end of each five-yearperiod. Births are projected by applyingage-specific fertility rates to the projected femalepopulation. Births are distributed byan assumed sex ratio, and the appropriateWorld Resources 1992-93257

16 Population and Human Developmentage-and sex-specific survival rates are applied.Future migration rates are also estimatedon an age-and sex-specific basis.Combining future fertility, mortality, andmigration rates yields the projected sizeand composition of the population.Assumptions about future mortality, fertility,and migration rates are made on acountry-by-country basis and, when possible,are based on historical trends. Four scenariosof population growth (high, medium,low, and constant) are created byusing different assumptions about theserates. For example, the medium-case scenarioassumes medium levels of fertility,mortality, and migration—assumptionsthat may vary among countries. Refer tothe source for further details.The labor force includes all people whoproduce economic goods and services. It includesall employed people (employers, theself-employed, salaried employees, wageearners, unpaid family workers, membersof producer cooperatives, and members ofthe armed forces), and the unemployed (experiencedworkers and those looking forwork for the first time).The ILO determines the average annualgrowth of the labor force by multiplying the activityrates of age/sex groups (the economicallyactive fraction of an age/sex group) bythe number of people in those groups. Estimatesof activity rates are based on informationfrom national censuses and labor forcesurveys. ILO adjusts national labor force statisticswhen necessary to conform to internationaldefinitions. The growth of age/sexgroups is provided to ILO by the United NationsPopulation Division.Table 16.2 Trends in Births, LifeExpectancy, Fertility, and AgeStructure, 1970-95Source: United Nations Population Division,World Population Prospects 1990 (U.N.,New York, 1991).The crude birth rate is derived by dividingthe number of live births in a given year bythe midyear population. This ratio is thenmultiplied by 1,000.Life expectancy at birth is the average numberof years that a newborn baby is expectedto live if the age-specific mortalityrates effective at the year of birth applythroughout his or her lifetime.The total fertility rate is an estimate of thenumber of children that an average womanwould have if current age-specific fertilityrates remained constant during her reproductiveyears.The percentage of population in specific agegroups shows a country's age structure:0-14,15-65, and over 65 years. It is usefulfor inferring dependency, needs for educationand employment, potential fertility,and other age-related factors. For additionaldetails, see sources or the TechnicalNote for Table 16.1.Table 16.3 Mortality andNutrition, 1970-95Sources: Crude death rate and infant deathrate data: United Nations Population Division,World Population Prospects 1990 (U.N.,New York, 1991); Child deaths: United NationsPopulation Division, Mortality of ChildrenUnder Age 5: World Estimates andProjections, 1950-2025 (U.N., New York,1988); Maternal deaths, wasting, and stunting:United Nations Children's Fund (UNI-CEF), State of the World's Children 1991(UNICEF, New York, 1991); Maternaldeaths for Cape Verde, Comoros, Djibouti,The Gambia, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Suriname,Bahrain, and the Solomon Islandsand wasting and stunting data for CapeVerde, Djibouti, The Gambia, Liberia,Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Zaire, Barbados, Belize,Guyana, Nepal, and the Solomon Islands:United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) Human Development Report1991 (Oxford University Press, Oxford,1991). Per capita average calories availableas a percentage of need and per capita totalprotein consumption: Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations (FAO),Agrostat PC (FAO, Rome, July 1991).The crude death rate is derived by dividingthe number of deaths in a year by the midyearpopulation, and multiplying by 1,000.The infant death rate is derived by dividingthe number of babies who die beforetheir first birthday by the number of livebirths in that year, and multiplying by 1,000.Child deaths are derived by dividing thenumber of children under age 5 who die ina given year by the number of live births inthat year, and multiplying by 1,000. Infantand child death rates are projected from thelatest estimates available from the UnitedNations Population Division. These deathrates are not comparable because differentparameters were used in modeling projectedchanges.Maternal deaths are the number of deathsfrom pregnancy- or childbirth-relatedcauses per 100,000 live births. A maternaldeath is defined by the World Health Organization(WHO) as the death of a womanwhile pregnant or within 42 days of terminationof pregnancy from any cause related toor aggravated by the pregnancy, includingabortion. Most official maternal mortalityrates are underestimated because causes ofdeath are often incorrectly classified or unavailable.In some countries, over 60 percentof women's deaths are registered without aspecified cause. Maternal deaths are highestamong women of ages 10-15 years, andover 40 years, and in women with five ormore children. Data are provided to UNDPand UNICEF by WHO and refer to a singleyear between 1980 and 1988 (1980 to 1987for UNDP data). Data for some countries areoutside the range of years indicated.Wasting indicates current acute malnutritionand refers to the percentage of childrenbetween the ages of 12 and 23 monthswhose weight-for-height is less than 77 percentof the median weight-for-height of thereference population of the U.S. NationalCenter for Health Statistics (NCHS). Stunting,an indicator of chronic undernutrition,refers to the percentage of children betweenthe ages of 24 and 59 months whose heightfor-age is less than 77 percent of the median.NCHS, among others, has found thathealthy children under the age of 5 yearsdo not differ appreciably in weight orheight. WHO has accepted the NCHSweight-for-age and weight-for-height standards.Children with low weight-for-ageare at a high risk of mortality. Data on wastingand stunting, provided to UNDP andUNICEF by WHO, refer to a single year between1980 and 1989 (1980 to 1988 forUNDP data). Data for some countries areoutside the range of years or ages indicated.The per capita average calories available (aspercent of need) and the per capita total proteinconsumption are calories and protein fromall food sources: domestic production, internationaltrade, stock drawdowns, and foreignaid. Total protein is the amountprovided from animal and vegetable foodsources. The quantity of food available forhuman consumption, as estimated by FAO,is the amount that reaches the consumer.The calories and protein actually consumedmay be lower than the figures shown, dependingon how much is lost during homestorage, preparation, and cooking, and howmuch is fed to pets and domestic animalsor discarded. Estimates of daily caloric requirementsvary for individual countries accordingto the age distribution and estimatedlevel of activity of the population.Table 16.4 Access to SafeDrinking Water, Sanitation, andHealth Services, 1980sSources: Drinking water and sanitation:World Health Organization (WHO), The InternationalDrinking Water Supply and SanitationDecade: Review of Mid-Decade Progress(as at December 1985) (WHO, Geneva, September1987); WHO, The International DrinkingWater Supply and Sanitation Decade:Review of National Progress (as at December1983); WHO, The International DrinkingWater Supply and Sanitation Decade: Reviewof National Baseline Data: December 1980(WHO, Geneva, 1984); WHO, Global Strategyfor Health for All. Monitoring 1988-1989.Detailed analysis of global indicators (WHO,Geneva, May 1989); and unpublished data(WHO, Geneva, July 1991). Access to healthservices: United Nations Children's Fund(UNICEF), State of the World's Children 1991(UNICEF, New York, 1991). Numbers oftrained medical personnel: WHO, 1988World Health Statistics Annual (WHO, Geneva,1988).WHO collected data on drinking waterand sanitation from national governments in1980,1983,1985, and 1988 using questionnairescompleted by public health officials,WHO experts, and Resident Representativesof the United Nations Development Programme.Data for a number of countrieswere gathered during 1986-87. For severalcountries in Africa, dates were not given.Urban and rural populations were definedby each national government.WHO defines reasonable access to safedrinking water in an urban area as access topiped water or a public standpipe within200 meters of a dwelling or housing unit. Inrural areas, reasonable access implies that afamily member need not spend a disproportionatepart of the day fetching water. "Safe"drinking water includes treated surface258World Resources 1992-93

water and untreated water from protectedsprings, boreholes, and sanitary wells.Urban areas with access to sanitation servicesare defined as urban populationsserved by connections to public sewers orhousehold systems such as pit privies,pour-flush latrines, septic tanks, communaltoilets, and other such facilities. Rural populationswith access were defined as thosewith adequate disposal such as pit privies,pour-flush latrines, and so forth. Applicationof these definitions may vary, and comparisonscan therefore be misleading.The population with access to health servicesis defined by UNICEF as the percentageof the population that can reach localhealth services by local transport in nomore than one hour.Data on number of trained medical personnelare the latest available to WHO regional officesat the beginning of 1988. Most arefrom 1983-86; however, some go back to1977. Comparisons should be made withcare, since categories and definitions varyamong countries.Health care personnel have been combinedinto three categories:Doctors: all physicians or surgeons;Nurses and midwives: all registered nursesand others in categories in which the term"nurse" or "nursing" appears; all midwives,birth attendants, and others in categoriesin which the term "midwife" appears;Other; all others directly involved in diagnosis,treatment, and prevention of disease(e.g., dentists, paramedical personnel, medicalassistants, acupuncturists), and all otherreported categories (e.g., pharmacists, laboratorytechnicians, x-ray technicians, andhospital administrators).Access to health personnel can vary substantiallywithin a country. The degree ofaccess in individual countries can be partlyinferred from other health data (e.g., infantdeaths, immunizations) presented here.Table 16.5 Education and ChildHealth, 1970-90Sources: Adult literacy for 1970: United NationsChildren's Fund (UNICEF), State ofthe World's Children 1989 and State of theWorld's Children 1991 (UNICEF, New York,1989 and 1991); Adult literacy for 1990:United Nations Educational, Scientific andCultural Organization (UNESCO), Compendiumof Statistics on Illiteracy-1990 Edition(UNESCO, Paris, 1990); The percentage ofpopulation age 25 and over who have completedprimary school and who have somepostsecondary education: United NationsEducational, Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO) Statistical Yearbook 1990(UNESCO, Paris, 1990); Births attended bytrained personnel, ORT use, and low-birthweightinfants: UNICEF, State of the World'sChildren 1991 (UNICEF, New York, 1991);Births attended by trained personnel forCape Verde, Comoros, Djibouti, EquatorialGuinea, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Swaziland,Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Suriname,Bahrain, Yemen, Fiji and the Solomon Islandsand low-birth-weight infants forChad, Comoros, Djibouti, The Gambia,Guinea-Bissau, Barbados, Belize, Guyana,Population and Human Development 16and Suriname: United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP), Human DevelopmentReport 1991 (Oxford University Press,New York, 1991); TB, DPT, polio, and measlesimmunization: UNICEF, unpublisheddata, September 1991.Adult female and adult male literacy ratesrefer to the percentage of people over theage of 15 who can read and write. UN-ESCO recommends defining as illiterate aperson who cannot both read with understandingand write a short and simple statementon his or her everyday life. Thisconcept is widely accepted, but its interpretationand application vary. It does not includepeople who, though familiar with thebasics of reading and writing, do not havethe skills to function at a reasonable level intheir own society. Actual definitions ofadult literacy are not strictly comparableamong countries. Literacy data for 1990 areprojected from past census figures, using estimatesof age group size within countrypopulations when available.The percentage of population age 25 and overwho have completed primary school and whohave some postsecondary education are figuresbased largely on national censuses and samplesurveys taken between 1970 and 1989.Primary education is defined as category 1of the International Standard Classificationof Education (ISCED). The length of primaryeducation varies by country fromthree to nine years. The median length forall countries is six years for primary education,and five and a half years for secondaryeducation. Postsecondary educationconsists of ISCED categories 5,6, and 7.These categories include education at universities,technical schools, and teachertraininginstitutes.The percentage of births attended bytrained personnel includes all health personnelaccepted by national authorities as partof the health system. Personnel includedvary by country. Some countries includetraditional birthing assistants and midwives;others, only doctors. WHO providesthe data to UNICEF.ORT (oral rehydration therapy) use refersto administration of oral rehydration saltsto children to combat diarrheal disease leadingto dehydration or malnutrition.The percentage of low-birth-weight infantsrefers to all babies weighing 2,500 grams orless at birth. WHO has adopted the standardthat healthy babies, regardless of race,should weigh more than 2,500 grams atbirth. These data are provided to UNICEFby WHO, and refer to a single year between1980 and 1988.Immunization data show the percentage of1-year-olds fully immunized in 1990 against:TB (tuberculosis); DPT (diphtheria, pertussis[whooping cough], and tetanus); polio;and measles. Data for measles immunizationsinclude totals from countries wherethis vaccination is normally given to childrenafter 1 year of age.Table 16.6 ContraceptivePrevalence and AvailabilitySources: Contraceptive prevalence: UnitedNations Population Division, unpublisheddata (U.N., New York, March 1991). Affordableaccess to contraception: Population CrisisCommittee (PCC), Access to AffordableContraception, 1991 Report on World ProgressTowards Population Stabilization (PCC, Washington,D.C., 1991).Contraceptive prevalence is the level ofcurrent contraceptive use among couples inwhich the woman is of childbearing age.The data were obtained from nationally representativesample surveys of women betweenthe ages of 15 and 49 who aremarried or cohabiting. The ages of womeninterviewed for some surveys variedslightly from this range. Many of these surveyswere conducted as part of the WorldFertility Survey (WFS), Contraceptive PrevalenceSurveys (CPSs), or DemographicHealth Surveys (DHS).The survey procedure of determining useof a method varied: most surveys namedand described each contraceptive method,but a few asked only general questionsabout use of family planning, without namingthe methods.Sterilization includes both female andmale voluntary sterilization. Female sterilizationis significantly more prevalent thanmale sterilization; the Netherlands is theonly country where male sterilization exceedsfemale. Pill refers to oral contraceptives.Injectable refers to injectable hormonalcontraceptives; this method is a relativelynew technology and is not widely availablein many countries. Condom use may beslightly underreported, since studies haveshown that prevalence of condom use ishigher when men, rather than women, aresurveyed. Vaginal barrier methods includethe diaphragm, cervical cap, and spermiddes(foam, jelly, and cream). Other methodsinclude traditional (also known asnonsupply) methods such as rhythm, withdrawal,abstinence, and douching. Users offolk remedies, and contraceptive users whodo not identify their method, are includedin other methods.Affordable access is defined as ability toacquire (1) contraceptive supplies and serviceswith, on average, no more than twohours a month of effort; and (2) one month'scontraceptive supplies at a cost not exceeding1 percent of the average monthly wage.Data represent the percentage of marriedcouples ol reproductive age in 1990 thathave access to contraceptives through allsources of supply and service. Access refersonly to availability, not to the actual use ofcontraceptives.Female sterilization refers to voluntary femalesterilization unless otherwise indicated.Pill, condom, and injectable (note d) are as definedabove. Menstrual regulation (note f) refersto abortion performed on suspicion ofpregnancy, without first determiningwhether the woman is pregnant.Contraceptive accessibility and cost datawere gathered through surveys of countryexperts, primarily family planning personnel,in 110 countries with populations over1 million. Contraceptive accessibility datawere available for 99 of these countries. ThePopulation Council surveyed 81 developingcountries. Data for a further 29 countrieswere collected by the PCC.World Resources 1992-93259

17. Land Cover andSettlementsThe data for this chapter focus on the changing relationshipof people to land. Also included is informationon the human environment: population density,wilderness areas, urban populations, large cities, thelabor force, and transportation.Data in Table 17.1 show current levels of use and recentrates of change in how nations use their land resources.In most regions, natural and plantedforest-lands have decreased over the past decade. Thegreatest declines have occurred in Asia (5.3 percent)and South America (4.6 percent). Worldwide, forestand woodland areas have shrunk 1.8 percent. Some ofthis land has been converted to cropland, which has increasedglobally by 2.2 percent since 1977-79. Thegreatest increases in cropland have occurred in Oceania(11.6 percent), South America (10.9 percent), andAfrica (4.4 percent)—regions that have simultaneouslyexperienced a net loss of forest and woodland. Theworld's wastelands, rangelands, and urban settlements(land categorized as "other") have registeredthe greatest absolute growth over the past decade,while land devoted to permanent pasture has changedlittle, increasing a scant 0.1 percent.Table 17.2 shows how populations are dispersed onthe land: between rural and urban areas, and betweenlarge cities of 1 million or more people and smaller settlements.In 1990, more than 75 percent of all SouthAmericans were living in urban areas, the highest degreeof urbanization of any region of the world. Europeranked a close second, with 73.4 percent of thepopulation in urban areas. The urban growth rate between1960 and 1990 was highest in Africa, at 4.9 percentper year, as compared with a global annual rate of2.8 percent. The world's rural populations have grownat a slower rate (1.3 percent per year) and, in fact, havedeclined over the past three decades in Europe and theU.S.S.R.The distribution of the 1980 labor force reflects regionaldifferences in the urban-rural population mix.Two thirds of the Asian and African labor forces workedin the agricultural sector, reflecting the importance ofthe rural share of total populations in those regions.By 1990, there were 276 cities in the world with populationsof 1 million or more. Although the majority ofthese cities (42 percent) are located in Asia, moreSouth Americans live in large cities (about one third ofthe region's 1990 population) than people of any otherregion of the globe. In developing countries in particular,the growth of cities puts a further burden on municipalgovernments, which are often unable to meetdemands for adequate housing, sanitation, water,and electricity. Table 17.2 also provides data on housingconditions (number of occupants and number ofrooms per household, and percent of households withoutelectricity) for many countries of the world.The transport of people and material is essential tothe successful functioning of modern economies. Governmentsare charged with building and maintainingtransport infrastructures to promote economic activitywithin their borders. Countries may choose to investin one type of infrastructure over another—for instance,rail systems over road systems—to move theirpeople and freight. Table 17.3 describes the results ofthese investment decisions, which also affect acountry's rate of fossil fuel consumption and emissionsof greenhouse gases and other pollutants. Thedensity of transport infrastructure, as expressed in kilometersof road, rail, and waterway network per thousandsquare kilometers of land, is usually in inverseproportion to the amount of wildlands left within acountry. (Wilderness area, presented in Table 17.1, isdefined, in part, by the absence of roads.) Road andrailway construction often opens new areas to settlement,cultivation, logging, and mining.For the majority of countries on which data are available,roads provide the most extensive transport systemon a per-unit-area basis. On average, for every1,000 square kilometers of land, the world has 170 kilometersof road compared with 9.5 kilometers of railtrack and 4.7 kilometers of navigable inland waterways.Regional road density ranges from 848 kilo-metersper 1,000 square kilometers of land in Europe to 53kilometers per 1,000 square kilometers in Africa.Roads are also the primary means for transportingpeople, relative to rail and airline systems. Among developingcountries reporting, bus lines and other publicroad vehicles are the dominant mode of transportation.In contrast, private vehicles (cars) are theprimary means of transportation in almost all industrializedcountries. This difference between developingand industrialized countries is reflected in the ratioof people to cars. The number of people per car exceeds100 for over one half of the African countries reportingdata, and for about one quarter of the developingcountries of Asia, whereas there are two to threepeople per car in most of the industrialized world.World Resources 1992-93261

17 Land Cover and SettlementsTable 17.1 Land Area and Use, 1977-89Und Use (000 hectares)AlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerUndArea(000hectares)PopulationDensity,1990(per 1,000hectares)CroplandPercentageChangeSince1987-89 1977-79Permanent PasturePercentageChangeSince1987-89 1977-79Forest and WoodlandPercentageChangeSince1987-89 1977-79Other UndPercentageChangeSince1987-89 1977-79Wilderness AreaTotal1988(000hectares)Percentageof TotalUndAreaWORLD {a}AFRICA13,128,8412,964,1384032171,477,877186,3922.24.43,322,943890,8990.1(0.5)4,095,317686,284(1.8)(3.6)4,232,7371,200,5651.01.93,486,097823,2382627238,174124,67011,06256,67327,38010580419233297,6133,5831,8531,3733,4231.12.43.51.027.531,16829,00044233,00010,000(14.1)0.00.00.00.04,69953,0403,57010,9306,72011.6(1.7)(12.3)(0.9)(8.2)194,69339,0475,19711,3707,2372.42.19.20.8(1.9)140,42427,0491,20931,25575059221154 3BurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritania2,56546,54040362,298125,92022334,15031,8002,31899,5452,805110,10025,7671,00023,00224,5862,81256,9693,0359,632175,95458,1549,408122,019102,5222,13325491849452,46667377176527125447458616532343434225852672620693076201,3347,004392,0063,205991673,65302,57123013,9304521742,7007273352,4243203722,1473,0792,3912,0871994.03.9(1.7)4.52.310.014.420.80.01.2o.o1.02.313.77.63.817.56.88.80.43.74.34.31.81.49138,300253,00045,0001510,00013,000200 010445,0004,700905,0006,1501,08038,1002,0005,70013,30034,0001,84030,00039,2502.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(1.1)(0.7)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.60.00.00.00.06524,760 135,82012,8903521,2007,8806311,29527,30020,0001688,21014,7001,0702,38001,78067815,8303,8507,0104,4508.3(4.30.0(0.3(5.80.0(0.9(24.10.00.00.0(3.50.0(26.2(7.9(3.90.0(7.80.0(14.416.6(8.7(19.3(4.1(2.22536,47633821,47264,825742,7837,2672,11296,9431,17623,8706155687,0923,00932714,0657151,780159,8295,2451,32782,92258,623(23.8)14.90.20.01.1(10.8)6.934.70.0(0.0)0.06.13.97.313.523.5(13.3)0.3(3-5)20.2(0.5)35.5161.90.30.201,320 020,91761,254011,8374,268042,540019,7167,333 0 00011,2212,1331,42065,49769178158,81471,37003034480351304201627 0 0001970133717477018544,63078,40982,329126,6705,84956220022611068,9853,0976623,599(0.6)14.10.51.013.0720,90044,00038,0009,2670.05.60.00.0(4.0)577,91514,50018,1802,120(1.1)2.0(7.6(1.6(22.1146,83016,81225,487111,68510.31.20.5006,13022,23965,633008052NigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA (b)BarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela91,0772,46719,2537,16262,734122,104237,6001,72088,6045,43915,53619,955226,76074,33938,6672,137,700432,280922,0975,10610,9824,8382,07210,8432,75611,1891,083190,86911,8757,599513916,6601,752,926273,669108,439845,65174,880103,87027,68419,68539,730128,00015,60017,48188,2051,1922,9343815801202891064583086495279421571142511845,93082295909661,4822,5358482,3634592,2684643263182,49727216911867178176317382401081682717722431,3351,1495,2261,8011,03813,17212,4991645,2401,4384,7006,7057,8505,2382,796273,816335645,9775273,3321,4407331,8689041,79326924,7081,270576120189,915141,57835,7503,46178,2334,4155,3482,6834952,2033,727681,3043,8833.517.21.54.74.8(1.3)0.9(8.4)2.21.4(5.2)20.04.13.910.31.10.012.84.45.55.35.54.58.32.72.31.51.92.84.63.70.010.91.93.717.15.43.56.96.246.78.753.4(10.0)5.940,0004805,7002,20443,00081,37898,0001,17535,0001,7902,9521,80015,00030,0004,856368,63144832,5002,3102,9922,0926101,3804992,54019374,4995,3001,53711241,467477,863142,40026,700169,00013,40040,1945,0501,23020,42027,1202013,52017,6000.0(15.8)0.00.00.0(0.1)0.0(1.8)0.00.02.90.00.00.00.03.10.015.226.724.014.30.00.07.8(3-0)7.2(7.9)0.011.515.90.01.04.1(0.7)(1.5)6.33.96.844.35.932.60.011.1(0.8)2.912,5005605,9422,0739,0804,51545,44010741,1801,6206205,660174,97028,99019,290715,41501,012356,0001,6402,7506191043,910423,42018743,5403,6003,407222294,261895,69259,40055,710555,5608,80050,90711,50016,36914,96768,90014,85566930,755(19.4(5.12.62.41.18.8(6.22.9(2.8(fa.817.9(8.1(1.9(2.4(4.01.00.00.05.8(17.011.8(3.1(31.6(17.0(30.0(18.8(5.1(12.0(23.5(19.4(4.3(1.1(4.6(1.3(1.1(4.21.4(5.6(21.0(2.7(27.7(3.5(0.37.4(8.67,2422782,3851,0849,61623,03981,6612757,1845917,2645,79028,94010,11111,725779,83861,164487,6206291,9086876253,6851,3113,43643448,1221,7052,079160191,017237,79236,11922,56842,85848,2657,4208,4511,5912,14028,2536571,98835,96736.5(14.9)3.6(2.8)0.5(0.5)3.714.617.815.71.2(9.7)11.65.24.8(2.5)0.0(1.1)(5.5)(17.9)(30.3)(7.4)2.717.80.820.45.512.844.739.33.71.04.73.14.17.2(1.7)3.318.629.10.48.53.011.86.51,52601,586010,460079,37707,05301,90153011,76315,0750907,74200640,5870 0 00001,12603,0501,521 0044,058374,59714,97617,810202,06123,08615,156012,2047,72636,66011,080029,74220 8 0160320701225200410064000000100212 00 521516243013 057192968033World Resources 1992-93262

LandArea(000hectares)PopulationDensity,1990(per 1,000hectares)Land Cover and Settlements 17Land Use (000 hectares)Table 17.1Cropland Permanent Pasture Forest and Woodland Other Land Wilderness AreaPercentageChangeSince1987-89 1977-79PercentageChangeSincePercentageChangeSince1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79PercentageChangeSince1987-89 1977-79TotalPercentage1988 of Total(000 LandASIA 2,731,228 1,140 454,456 0.8 694,251 (0.3) 538,855 (5.3) 1,043,666 2.8 377,586 13Afghanistan65,209 254 8,054 0.1 30,000 0.0 1,900 0.0 25,255 (0.0) 8,740 13Bahrain68 7,5882 0.04 0.0 0 0.0 62 0.000 00Bangladesh13,017 8,880 9,271 1.5 600 0.0 1,966 (10.4) 1,181 8.9Bhutan4,700 323 130 10.5 270 2.5 2,600 2.8 1,700 (5.0) 1,179 25Cambodia17,652 467 3,056 0.3 580 0.0 13,372 0.0 644 (1.5)0 0China932,641 1,221 96,615 (3.9) 319,080 0.0 126,848 (7.73.922Cyprus924 759157 (1.5)5 0.0 123 0.00.40India297,319 2,869 169,357 0.5 11,923 (3.4) 66,782 (0.70.1)0Indonesia181,157 1,017 21,233 9.3 11,800 (1.9) 113,433 (5.25.56Iran, Islamic Rep163,600 334 14,830 (3.6) 44,000 0.0 18,020 0.10.610IraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgium (c)BulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourg (o)MaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.43,7372,03337,6528,89312,0419,8731,78223,0801,02332,855156,65065,75413,68021,24677,08829,8171,100214,969616,46318,40651,08976,9638,36032,54919,50033,297472,9532,7408,2733,02511,05512,5374,23730,46155,01024,42810,51913,0859,23410,0256,88929,406258323,39230,68330,4459,19523,03449,94441,1623,97724,16025,5402,227,2004332,2633,2794511,8084,3341,1441792,640545146341,399711,5912,0933356644,6392,6646811,0907261902,049472751,0541,1849173,2558151,2501,2141631,0212,5101,5457681,143255401,9401,44811,0314,4081371,2621,1191,0107852051,6622,3699321305,4504334,6753721,9902,13649013014,8801,35910,0352,6004820,7707,95751,18321,8985,56421,62427,858396,5921,361119140,4097121,5267444,1395,1202,5712,43519,2107,4734,9243,9315,288896612,021561393087414,7853,77110,58120,3672,8724126,8887,764231,8711.54.8(5.4)12.15.9(3.8)300.04.6(5.6)2.519.40.311.919.03.34.4100.07.0(75.0)0.5(0.5)21.8(1.4)114.82.30.77.5(1-3)2.3(6.4)X(3.4)(2.3)(3.1)(6.4)1.6(0.7)(2.2)0.8(1.9)0.0(16.7)(3.1)X(7.1)8.07.6(1.6)(1.1)0.6(1.0)(4.1)4.0(1.2)(2.0)(0.2)4,00014863779150881348001027123,8603621,9971,0005,0001,2205085,00004398,1667618,6332003307,0009,06583,1774012,0006262,0261,64421512511,7574,4461,2575,2551,2102,2744,6884,9097001,0801054,0477614,40610,2105621,60911,1196,352371,5000.024.015.70.10.0116.40.00.00.00.0(0.4)0.17.70.00.023.10.00.00.00.0(2.9)26.8(13.4)0.020.50.00.0(4.0)(4.1)(2.9)X5.4(3.9)(20.3)(27.3)(9.5)(8.2)0.70.0(7.3)(0.0)2.7(5.0)X0.0(8.9)0.6(0.7)0.0(0.9)(6.4)(22.8)(1.0)(3.3)0.2(0.6)1,89011025,105718,9706,492212,9008019,34013,91432,3962,48003,29310,75001,20031,74759814,37320,19939,3561,6001,520156,8511,0473,2006173,8684,60849323,22214,7217,3902,9812,6201,6781203396,7368903008,3308,7362,9686,35615,65628,0201,0522,3539,344945,000(1.6(5.20.412.20.0(1.40.0(7.2(11.1(11.0(8.50.70.00.017.3(16.40.0(11.80.0(1.531.4(15.60.250.0(28.80.0(6.21.13.4(2.2X1.01.80.0(0.4• 1.21.01.00.15.90.08.46.3X0.03.30.00.90.00.41.80.50.013.81.31.7390,09763949,25834,69186,75032,3971,3427,2357,6601,0310.2)3.1)1.20.6)9.8)1,157 12.21,6428,4790.2)12.8632 4.68,698 37.517,51622,9626,60320,19848,0259,8901,045127,586562,3794,07814,33120,1828,1180.41.2)6.00.0)2.3)8.60.2)0.12.00.73.28.8)8.60.3)16,271 28.29,53922,59392,5245813.85.4)1,551 18.51,024 X1,022 0.51,165 8.24,6799,3225,1191,3601,2791,058 17,6238965,74042191,08221,3742,8771,6951,6913,711 19,7099043,8002,080678,8290.1)0.4958 16.67.29.08.11.1)2.4)0.60.05.04.3X5.62.30.3)6.92.62.8)9.91.40.04.41.51.9)hectares)210,77601,16111,76115,6856,47700000043702,84424,1312,54704,7692,7370067,8890002,80901,93802,0679,63913,8550000002,939000002,975000005,62700002,315000752,022Area150000002091540223003200050230112930000009000002900000170000500034OCEANIA842,696 31 49,355 11.6 436.622 (3.1) 157,221 (0.6 199,523Australia761,793 22 47,671 11.7 422,322 (3.1) 106,000 (0.9 185,800Fiji1,827 418240 2.7 60 (2.7) 1,185 0.0 342New Zealand26,799 127508 14.3 13,752 1.5 7,289 4.3 5,274Papua New Guinea45,286 86387 7.7 85 (20.1) 38,237 (0.5 6,577Solomon Islands2,799 11657 10.3 39 0.0 2,560 0.0 143Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Eurostat, United Nations Population Division, and J.M. McCloskey and H. Spaiding.Notes: a. Does not include Antarctica.b. Includes Greenland.c. Land use data are for 1987.Regional totals include countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parenthesis.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.5.05.41.3)2.4)2.93.6)237,057229,43103,7233,9030283001480World Resources 1992-93263

17 Land Cover and SettlementsTable 17.2 Urban and Rural Populations, Settlements, and LaborWORLDUrbanPopulation asAverage Annual Cities With at Least Percentage WomenPopulationChangea Percentage 1960-90of Total1960 199034.2 45.2(percent)Urban Rural2.8 1.31 Million InhabitantsPercentage ofNumberofAverageof Total as aHousehold Size Households Labor PercentageNumber of Number of Without Force of LaborTotal Population Cities Occupants Rooms Electricity 1990 Force Agri-1960 1990 1990 1970-86 1970-82 1970-82 (000) 1990 culture12.2 14.8 2762,363,547 36.1 51Percentage of 1980Labor Force inIndustry Services21 28AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela18.3 33.930.4 51.710.4 28.39.2 37.71.7 27.54.7 9.02.0 5.513.9 41.216.3 28.622.7 46.77.0 29.59.8 27.831.9 40.519.3 40.450.0 80.737.9 46.725.4 28.76.4 12.917.5 45.612.5 23.223.3 33.09.9 25.613.7 19.87.4 23.63.4 20.218.7 45.922.8 70.210.6 23.84.4 11.811.1 19.25.8 46.833.2 40.529.3 48.03.7 26.814.9 27.85.8 19.514.4 35.22.4 7.731.9 38.413.0 32.217.3 36.446.6 59.510.3 22.04.0 33.14.7 32.89.8 25.736.0 54.35.1 10.422.3 39.517.2 49.912.6 27.663.2 71.435.5X68.936.654.930.238.332.415.622.733.850.839.641.222.570.051.773.639.344.967.848.234.429.035.646.347.280.166.644.7X77.147.174.960.444.439.428.343.752.372.659.853.469.175.075.186.351.274.985.970.056.034.547.570.247.485.590.54.94.75.97.413.54.65.56.54.14.87.16.83.66.57.33.11.54.86.35.23.95.33.27.78.66.28.15.66.54.49.82.34.39.54.87.46.37.43.55.25.83.25.410.510.36.23.66.14.87.15.92.01.1X1.73.92.55.12.93.53.85.62.94.14.73.45.31.33.62.03.54.22.63.74.61.74.04.11.30.94.32.11.61.71.22.32.22.01.41.61.01.12.42.42.92.31.91.02.21.62.62.21.41.72.91.81.70.92.22.82.20.51.31.51.62.12.62.23.12.51.22.31.42.31.82.22.21.13.42.01.62.50.7(0.2)X0.32.4(0.6)0.82.12.51.32.20.30.91.81.7(1.7)0.50.1(0.7)1.8(0.2)(0.9)0.61.60.92.30.61.2(0.4)(1-0)5.78.04.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.04.70.020.10.01.70.00.05.83.60.02.60.00.012.90.00.00.00.00.011.92.40.00.03.20.011.50.00.018.93.10.01.60.013.80.02.90.00.028.70.00.024.522.920.313.80.00.06.80.00.020.213.30.00.034.523.439.010.821.926.717.817.30.00.017.00.045.522.59.212.217.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.018.10.024.30.0 03.8 10.0 00.0 07.3 122.5 10.0 06.3 10.0 00.0 045.4 10.0 00.0 00.0 00.0 00.0 017.1 210.1 10.0 00.0 08.3 20.0 020.4 10.0 00.0 017.6 47.7 10.0 06.1 10.0 020.0 10.0 09.9 10.0 00.0 031.8 440.00.029.833.719.830.70.00.015.80.00.032.526.10.00.036.332.842.516.935.235.927.327.50.00.029.00.038.726.67.224242,78411XXXX5,8194,0810 5.2 4.1 94 4,3650XXX X 1410 5.1X 1,3840 XXX 1,9710X5.4XX 2,1950 5.4XX 4460XXX 4,1670 4.5XX 2,8200XXX 2310 5.3XX 7811 XXX 4,5990XXXX2 5.2X 54 14,574X182X21,225X5368.3 329X 5,6866.7X3,0974585.1XX003111001005100302931141420010125.84.53.05.15.510,0118089123.3XXXX28XXXX1,0765,0043,4952,9596794.8 3.3 30 4405.9 2.1 XXXX 7,8244.3 XXX 8,437XX 5373,619X41,8574.6 3,520XXX 3,1921,4382,143XXXX5.75.5XX12,4348,07830612,5971,39666 2,594XXXX 8,12913,0845.0 2,644X 3,9213.65.32.84.74.15.35.05.24.75.74.25.5X4.64.52.73.94.34.44.55.25.1X5.24.9X3.35.33.8X5.64.04.03.61.52.42.12.42.42.32.22.63.34.72.8X4.53.53.42.4X2.22.5X3.53.941XX31176366729675X25593516XX6633254259X8388X1923189,258137X13,3601,0234,4612,1872,1552,6283,1311,5761,24630,4871,204873501122,005104,46511,5482,28355,0264,75310,3943,2873831,4107,1381351,2166,86034.49.638.647.435.046.247.333.329.145.721.140.238.834.2X10.140.237.437.340.439.739.840.839.943.430.39.039.241.216.222.126.620.747.423.846.734.847.739.332.738.635.621.838.847.936.424.441.035.529.034.637.447.4X39.821.831.715.025.116.441.618.845.727.125.227.230.041.426.428.125.827.428.521.919.325.120.724.129.631.227.66931747070879370527283836265X466680758456818281188183866912 1927 4210 177 2313 174 92 58 2223 266 215 126 1112 268 27X X20 34231211 147 918 26101412101629 536 13729 132228 24 4846 25 2985 7X2X91689381707617717486737273731210X531244643577061313747321042913463117343927494020161612 2036 41314 1616492117101795103641310112921X2923291519178161629161839312634202725242026211820292829101617175869X654648393726222352353850516645533442584242473142605556264World Resources 1992-93

Land Cover and Settlements 17Force, 1960-1990 Table 17.2ASMAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsSources:Notes:UrbanPopulation asAverage AnnualPopulationChangea Percentage 1960-90of Total(percent)34.4 3.7 1.51960 1990 Urban Rural21.58.32.7 15.8 8.6 0.0X X X X 0.08.0 18.2 4.3 1 0 3.382.7 82.9 4.1 4.C 0.05.1 16.4 6.8 ? ? 2.82.5 5.3 4.4 1.8 0.010.3 11.6 1.8 1.3 0.019.0 33.4 3.8 1 ? 8.035.6 52.8 2.0 04 0.018.0 27.0 3.6 1 .£ 5.514.6 30.5 4.7 1 5 6.333.6 56.7 5.0 1.7 13.942.9 71.3 5.2 1.1 14.977.0 91.6 3.2 Ofi 34.962.5 77.0 1.6 0.7 22.242.7 68.0 4.5 OS 12.940.2 59.8 3.7 1.0 6.027.7 72.0 5.1 14 20.472.3 95.6 7.9 0 5 86.77.9 18.6 5.1 1 7 0.039.6 83.7 3.8 3.1 0.025.2 43.0 4.5 1.7 4.235.7 52.3 4.1 1.8 0.019.3 24.8 3.0 ?C 4.53.1 9.6 6.3 2.2 0.03.6 10.6 7.5 34 0.022.1 32.0 4.3 2.6 9.530.3 42.6 3.9 2.1 8.373.3 89.4 8.0 4C 0.029.7 77.3 7.6 0.4 5.8100.0 100.0 1.7 NA 74.717.9 21.4 2.5 1.7 0.036.8 50.4 4.5 ? fi 21.912.5 22.6 4.6 2.1 8.229.7 61.3 4.9 04 12.940.0 77.8 12.5 6.5 0.014.7 21.9 3.6 1.9 5.73.4 12.0 9.9 50 0.028.0 43.3 3.9 1.6 0.061.1 73.4 1.2 0.7) 16.530.6 35.2 2.8 ? 1 0.049.9 58.4 0.8 0.4 25.592.5 96.9 0.4 2.7 0.038.6 67.7 2.4 17 9.047.0 77.5 2.1 2.4 7.873.7 87.0 0.9 1 9 29.338.1 59.7 1.9 1,0 10.562.4 74.3 1.3 06 19.577.4 87.4 0.7 16 15.172.3 77.2 0.0 0.9 6.442.9 62.5 1.9 0.8 27.040.0 61.3 1.6 13 18.180.1 90.5 1.6 1.2 0.045.8 57.1 1.7 01 0.059.4 68.9 0.9 0.5 24.562.1 84.2 1.6 2.3 0.069.9 87.3 1.0 ?6 0.085.0 88.5 1.0 0.0 15.249.9 75.0 1.9 1.8 0.047.9 61.8 1.7 0.2 16.022.1 33.6 1.9 00 10.134.2 52.7 2.2 (13 7.556.6 78.4 1.9 15 13.772.6 84.0 0.9 1.4 10.851.0 59.9 1.2 0.0 0.085.7 89.1 0.4 0.6 29.827.9 56.1 3.2 0.8 3.148.8 65.8 2.0 0.4 12.466.3 70.6 2.0 1.3 31.880.6 85.5 1.9 0.7 48.729.7 39.3 3.2 1,7 0.076.0 84.0 1.5 01 0.0Cities With at Least1 Million InhabitantsPercentage ofNumberofTotal Population Cities1960 1990 199011.39.50.07.70.00.09.10.08.610.023.321.440.927.525.610.249.952.90.00.09.60.07.90.00.013.413.60.022.6100.00.030.112.821.60.06.50.00.017.00.027.60.013.28.326.920.319.213.07.834.220.00.00.025.40.00.014.00.017.515.69.422.119.70.023.46.615.332.250.60.00.00.00.0PercentageAverage of TotalHousehold Size Households LaborNumber of Number of Without ForceOccupants1970-861151 6.20 6.62 5.70X0X38 4.40 3.924 5.565 4.94.91X1 3.56 3.111 6.6X6 4.51 6.50XX01 5.20 X1 5.20 5.80X6 6.61 5.60X2X1 4.70 5.22 6.21 5.24 5.20 5.22 5.30 5.00X360 X1 2.70 2.711 3.12.81 2.41 2.63 2.75 2.41 2.51 3.11 2.80X0 3.75 3.00 2.80 3.22X0 2.73 3.11 2.91X2 3.51 2.20 2.54 X1 3.624 4.044 3.00000 6.02.94.56.7Rooms Electricity 1990United Nations Center for Human Settlements, United Nations Population Division, and International Labour Office.a. Excluding kitchens.b. Includes rooms used for professional/business purposes.World and regional totals include countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measurement; X = not available; NA = not applicable; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.WomenasaPercentage Percentage of 1980of LaborForceAgri-Labor Force inXX1970-82 1970-82 (000) 1990 culture Industry Services1,436,522 35.3 66 15 19X 1,570 34.9 11 33 56XX1,570X45.9X76X10X 14XXX 6,229 8.6 X X X3.06 220 10.5 3 35 622.0 X 33,398 7.3 75 6X X 696 32.2 92 3XX 3,758 38.3 X X195XXX 679,900 43.2 74 14 124.4X 326 35.6 26 34 402.0X 322,944 25.2 70 13 173.1 86 71,314 31.2 57 13 302.4 52 15,253 18.0 36 33 31XX 5,119 21.5 30 22 482.94 1,806 33.7 6 32 624.3 a X 62,202 37.9 11 34 55X 23 992 10.3XX 10,470 45.81043263064274.1 50 18,664 33.8 36 27 373.5 17 835 14.6 2 32 67XXX 2,239 44.3 76 7 17X 914 27.8 X X X2.3 b 36 7,071 35.1 42 19 39XX 1,029 45.5 40 21 39XX 18,324 36.9 53XX 7,725 33.6 93191287XX 405 8.4 50 22 281.9 69 33,698 12.5 55 16 302.4 77 22,474 31.2 52 16 33X X 186 7.0 3 28 69XXX 4,081 7.4 48 14 372 1,298 32.1 2 38 612.5 85 6,367 26.7 53 14 336.4 58 3,101 17.3 32 32 361.9 76 29,534 44.6 71 10 192.5 59 23,696 33.7 58 17 25X X 784 6.5 5 38 57XX 32,916 46.7 68 12 211.9 95 1,954 13.6 69 9 22X X 648 12.0 41 18 41231,702 38.6 14 39 47XX 1,591 41.2 56 26 183.4 a X 3,570 40.1 9 41 505.00 4,151 33.7 3 36 613.60 4,475 46.4 18 45 373.50 8,386 46.6 13 49 373.8 h 0 2,852 44.6 7 32 613.44 2,552 47.0 12 35 533.6X 9,670 45.5 9 35 564.40 25,404 39.9 6 44 502.70 29,311 37.2 11 50 393.5 12 3,852 26.7 31 29 403.0X2X5,27613644.942.61810443738534.75 1,481 29.4 19 34 483.7 b 1 23,339 31.9 12 41 485.3 X 155 31.6 5 35 60XX 146 23.3 5 42 535.0X 6,153 30.9 6 32 633.6X 2,128 41.2 8 29 623.1 b 4 19,704 45.6 29 39 334.5 36 4,740 36.7 26 37 38XX 11,825 46.5 31 44 264.4 h X 14,456 24.4 17 37 464.1X 4,319 44.6 6 33 624.8X 3,212 36.6 6 39 554.8X 27,766 38.6 3 38 592.8 12 10,858 38.9 32 33 34XX 146,634 48.0 20 39 4112,181 37.0 20 28 525.05 7,963 38.1 7 32 61X5.6X 254 20.1 46 17 37World Resources 1992-93265

17 Land Cover and SettlementsTable 17.3 Transport and Transport Infrastructure, 1980sWORLDTotalRoad170Transport InfrastructureTotal km Per 1,000km2 of Land AreaNavigablePaved Rail InlandRoad Track Waterways88 9.5 4.7TotalNumberofPublicAirports14,201PersonsPerCarTransport of Goods and PassengersMetric Ton-km of Freight (b)Hundred Million Passenger-km {a}Moved Per Year by:Traveled per Year by:InlandCar/Bus Passenger Commercial Road Rail Waterway Airjc)Public Private Train Aircraft {c) (hundred million) (million)AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela53 1230 1658 767 724 441 5201 14112 7558 14933 125 X336 9435 2169 12125 2146 31X X19 ( 3 429 2236 5095 24122 5114 96113 14140 1684 818 1425 9130 2813 17 2974 905133 6533 766 515 3119 33489 3478 23103 1634 9149 433 2158 3092 4139 34188 113142 3164 150 9202 34349 1843,651 3,430113 1592 27696 102191 82359 102587 84121 28145 34108 171,536 461118 53126 13112 361,009 X679 3871357738197106102136392844582851141521116141023355156382.81.62.45.21.31.8X2.4XXXX1.52.14.34.6Xe 0.62.60.04.14.3X5.30.15.1X1.88.50.50.7X4.24.22.9X3.8X4.71.2X19.32.129.94.09.712.36.22.32.97.117.00.00.09.113.7116.510.729.08.21.57.027.110.62.53.1X26.44.912.53.43.610.22.73.50.01.12.70.017.20.41.9X1.0XXXX4.5X1.31.6X3.33.1X3.5XX6.240.05.65.3XXXXXX1.51.5XXX4.8X0.29.4X4.711.2XX2.2XXXXX6.63.0X1.5X36.20.314.32.2XX9.1X4.2X1.518.710.5X2.2 f6.64.09.25.91.013.85.430.57.86.97.79.28.01,52149 34 X26 151 X8 X X28 67 X51 354 X4 X X43 121 70 d1 X X40 2,627 X51 X X4 X X43 X XXX27 523 3617 62 2532 X X40 1,238 X39 55 X1 144 X3 X X11 X X10 X X152 157 X33 278 X10 327 X45 X X59 394 X27 446 X29 X X20 115 X1 24 X29 41 X18X X XX X20 779 X46 X X7 912 116 69XX 2313XX15156 10 X25 135 XXX4 X62 3968 913 1312 25 2010 457 X100 X X70 X XX33 336,6051 X XX X X512 2 X63 19 4120 X X38 57 X35 36 X74 XX X6X35 111 X6 57 X483 14 X11 73 X51 X5 X2X5,268 2 3722,447349 8 X590 57 X752 10 5,192 d129 19 8197 36 67249 36 043 X X29 X X162 X X38 12 X27 10 X82 8 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX106XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX159XXXXXX2XXXXXXXX40XXXXXXXXXXX44,420XXXX4140XXXXXXXX2X10X4XXXXXXX140XXXXXXXXXXX2XXXX14XXXX378213052220331620164X40014001741X318275X21002X2925022163598XX5049204102X52016115276,9339310279284530X1XXXXXX110XXXXXX281XXXXXXXXXXX203X61481221XXXX1226204554XXXXXX3X0XXXXX312XXXXXXXXXXX3XXXX12XXXX2XXXXXXXX10XXXXXXX19XXXXXXXXXXX11,247X172,604X983XXXXXXXX1X5X9XXXXXXX67XXXXXXXXXXX2XXXXXXXXXXXXX917XXX120XXXXXX2,3971XXXXXXXXXXX16,541X51,09521882XXXX20XXXXXXXXXXXXXX25XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX7,047X1818X28XXXXXXX2352180180321181801918013809229X140048105291X18553410X1817018X820617021819225225630X1,3483322022342161142141414,65020181,148330395683430159161266World Resources 1992-93

ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemenEUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)TotalRoad15932X56287621,063520121831042282,94884168565240119684122304144107144528136424,33439416214341724261205338486091,2954,2433345831,6702521,4642,0331,1852641,1411141,3401,0261,9734,0633,3992871,185565 j3163073251,7881,46747872Transport InfrastructureTotal km Per 1,000km2 of Land AreaNavigablePaved Rail InlandRoad Track Waterways76 9.9 8.242940.0X1.8X29 21.19 X61.8X15 3.7 21.014605.8X11.8X246 41.8 5.475 3.6 11.934 2.9 0.6882282,005623347X854784151918767591164,10913112676592229136705X1,2954,0733057.025.670.38.970.631.9XX21.75.11.24.80.7X11.43.6X0.459.022.59.67.711.0X8.9XX52.719.869.5118.038.977 104.51,6701491,3502,013449220569211,2591,0261,9553,8232,991199728488 j16030147.819.262.6119.6133.218.983.4X28.363.9105.4X84.013.287.52.3X4.7X18.716.3X32.4X22.2TotalNumberofPublicAirports1,180201151692317914734CVJ88137121131490.3119.5 62X 41X 7X 3410.8 226XXX16.73.77.81.6X54.4XX10.01.64.364.54.33.99.820.515.518.022.00.617.6XXPersonsPerCarXXXXXX464915926279422X384X611XXXX205Land Cover and Settlements 17Transport of Goods and PassengersPassengerXHundred Million Passenger-km {a)Traveled per Year by:Car/BusCommercial400 68 149X 4747Public Private Train Aircraft (c)XXXXXXXX2,750XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX215210X17917180XX1,072XX8530XXXXXXXX156 XX6 X23 X23 11 X107 X7 X X31 85 X3954 38 1,232XX XX19 g X XX X X1,474X X X11 33 212493 7 3176 5 3974573417182 hX36297194421155411332XX862422X338OO OJ8985400615XxxxxxXX5,009XX225XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX3XXX5214585,7405,556XXXXX4,670XX1,539 i404XxxxxxXX3,618XX260XXX16XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX27473197483274041822820115X124383X10225558237693337218239031015171591106151573052781884334183X306823224346515363X80141643215Table 17.3Metric Ton-km of Freight |b)Moved Per Year by:Road RailInlandWaterway Airfc}(hundred million) (million)Greece6XHungaryIcelandIreland281X0Italy4.63941,574 183145XX2Luxembourg14.3 X1 2 6 4MaltaXX7 X X XNetherlandsNorwayPoland147.95.113.11103758125959372217938410161,1117213012Portugal39.2 1.3 30 6 85 530 59 63 X 17 X 160Romania48.1 7.2 17 193 X XX16 51 483 31X 15Spain28.9 2.1 39354 1,330158 228 1,242 145733Sweden231 28.3 2.8 189 2 X X5985 260 185 70 185SwitzerlandX 113.1 0.5 10 2 30 796 115 155 60 79 1 889United Kingdom5,170 410 9231803,447Australia112 56 5.2 1.1 430 23 368 6 595 1,125Fiji235 31 35.2 11.1 17 25 X 8 X X20New Zealand347 191 15.8 6.0 59 25 106 X 32XX 317Papua New Guinea42 11 XX 24.2 402 189 X70 X150Solomon Islands75 X 28 X XXYugoslavia1,46728769.936.69.77.814118410267 370 114511,302209 25460945 136U.S.S.R.54 6.6 5.5 38 20 4,706 X 4,022 2,267 5,080 39,248 2,512 2,645OCEANIA115 57 5.3 2.5 936Sources: International Civil Aviation Organization, International Road Federation, Jane's Information Group Limited, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe,United States Central Intelligence Agency, and other sources.Notes: a. Passenger-km are total passengers moved multiplied by kilometers traveled, b. Metric ton-km are total metric tons of freight moved multiplied by distance moved.c. Country-based carriers only. Data are for 1989. d. Public and private vehicles combined, e. Excludes urban roads, f. Exclusive of Great Lakes waterways.g. Data are for Yemen as a whole, h. Data are for Germany as a whole, i. Includes bicycles, j. Data are for continental Portugal only.Regional totals are totals of countries with reported data only.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.XXXXXXXX250683XX2,461XX86XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX625XXXXXX1911511321062421,4381,631X151131XXXXXXXXXX956XX235XX138XXX11XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX34791497201080516620X6211X6XXXXXXXX250XXX2,348XX166XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX154051184173540X1 xxxxx1240770X6833368144892738175,12820632,3652330284404CVl11140419327406051,640751061382118185X426618171221293,8193,840X1036331181,118162,00312829World Resources 1992-93267

17 Land Cover and SettlementsSources and Technical NotesTable 17.1 Land Area and Use,1977-89Sources: Land area and use: Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations(FAO), Agrostat PC (FAO, Rome, June1991); for Belgium and Luxembourg, Eurostat,Environmental Statistics 1989 (StatisticalOffice of the European Communities,Luxembourg, 1990); population density: calculatedfrom FAO land-area data and populationfigures provided by United NationsPopulation Division, World Population Prospects1990 (U.N., New York, 1991); 1990population for the Solomon Islands, TheWorld Bank, unpublished data (The WorldBank, Washington, D.C., July 1991); wildernessarea: J. Michael McCloskey andHeather Spalding, "A Reconnaissance-Level Inventory of the Amount of WildernessRemaining in the World," Ambio, Vol.18, No. 4 (1989).Land area and land use data are providedto FAO by national governments in responseto annual questionnaires. FAO alsocompiles data from national agriculturalcensuses. When official information is lacking,FAO prepares its own estimates or relieson unofficial data. Several countries usedefinitions of total area and land use thatdiffer from those used in this chapter. Referto the sources for details.FAO often adjusts the definitions of landusecategories and sometimes substantiallyrevises earlier data. For example, in 1985,FAO began to exclude from the croplandcategory land used for shifting cultivationbut currently lying fallow. Because landusechanges can reflect changes in data-reportingprocedures along with actualland-use changes, apparent trends shouldbe interpreted with caution.Land use data are periodically revisedand may change significantly from year toyear. For the most recent land-use statistics,see the latest FAO Production Yearbook.Land area data are for 1989. They excludemajor inland water bodies, national claimsto the continental shelf, and Exclusive EconomicZones. (See Chapter 23, "Oceans andCoasts," Table 23.1, Coastal Areas and Resources.)The population density and land use figuresfor the world refer to the six inhabited continents.Population density was derived byusing the population figures for 1990 publishedby the United Nations Population Divisionand 1989 land area data from FAO.Although the population figures were publishedin 1991, actual censuses and estimateswere made in prior years. Foradditional information on population andmethodology, see the Technical Notes toTable 16.1, Size and Growth of Populationand Labor Force, 1950-2025, in Chapter 16,"Population and Human Development."Cropland includes land under temporaryand permanent crops, temporary meadows,market and kitchen gardens, and temporaryfallow. Permanent crops are those thatdo not need to be replanted after each harvest,such as cocoa, coffee, rubber, fruit,and vines. It excludes land used to growtrees for wood or timber.Permanent pasture is land used five ormore years for forage, including naturalcrops and cultivated crops. This category isdifficult for countries to assess because it includeswildland used for pasture. In addition,few countries regularly report data onpermanent pasture. As a result, the absenceof a change in permanent pasture area (e.g.,0 percent change for many African andAsian countries) may indicate differences inland classification and data reporting ratherthan actual conditions. Grassland not usedfor forage is included under other land.Forest and woodland includes land undernatural or planted stands of trees, as well aslogged-over areas that will be reforested inthe near future.Other land includes uncultivated land,grassland not used for pasture, built-onareas, wetlands, wastelands, and roads.Wilderness area refers to lands showing noevidence of development, such as settlements,roads, buildings, airports, railroads,pipelines, power lines, and reservoirs. Thedata were derived from 65 detailed, aeronautical,navigational maps published inthe early and mid-1980s by the U.S. DefenseMapping Agency at scales of1:2,000,000 and 1:1,000,000. The maps showhuman constructs in remote areas to provideorienting landmarks for navigators. Althoughthe maps do not always show agriculturaldevelopment or logging, these activitiesusually occur near roads and settlements.The minimum unit of wildernesssurveyed was 4,000 square kilometers becauseit was impossible to identify smallerwilderness areas from these maps.Table 17.2 Urban and RuralPopulations, Settlements, andLabor Force, 1960-1990Sources: Urban population as a percentageof total: United Nations Population Division,World Population Prospects 1990 (U.N.,New York, 1991); cities with at least 1 millioninhabitants: United Nations PopulationDivision, Urban and Rural Areas 1990, ondiskette (U.N., New York, 1991); averagehousehold size and percentage of householdswithout electricity: United NationsCenter for Human Settlements (Habitat),Human Settlements Basic Statistics 1990 (Habitat,Nairobi, 1990); total labor force,women as a percentage of labor force, andlabor force by sector: International LabourOffice (ILO), Economically Active Population.Estimates: 1950-1980; Projections: 1985-2025(ILO, Geneva, 1986).Urban population as a percentage of total isthe portion of the total population residingin urban areas. The rest of the population isdefined as rural. Definitions of urban varyfrom country to country. For a list of individualcountry definitions, see the sources.For additional information on methods ofdata collection and estimation, refer to theTechnical Note for Table 16.1, Size andGrowth of Population and Labor Force,1950-2025, in Chapter 16, "Population andHuman Development."The percentage of total population in citieswith at least 1 million inhabitants was calculatedusing figures for populations of urbanagglomerations of 1 million or more residentsreported in Urban and Rural Areas1990 and total national population estimatesand projections for 1960 and 1990 inWorld Population Prospects 1990. In Urbanand Rural Areas 1990, the United Nationsprovides estimates and projections of thepopulation of 276 urban agglomerationswith 1 million or more inhabitants in 1990,for each five-year period between 1950 and2000.The United Nations defines an "urban agglomeration"as "comprising the city ortown proper and also the suburban fringeor thickly settled territory lying outside of,but adjacent to, the city boundaries.... Forsome countries or areas, the data relate toentire administrative divisions known, forexample, as shi or municipos which [sic]are composed of a populated center and adjoiningterritory, some of which may containother quite separate urban localities orbe distinctly rural in character." For additionalinformation, refer to the source.Average household size refers to individualsor groups of people who share facilities forcooking and for meeting other basic needswithin a housing unit. Housing units aredwellings that are either primarily intendedfor use as living quarters, or units that arebeing used for that purpose. This includesapartments and mobile homes along withhotels, rooming houses, and other groupliving quarters. Number of occupants is calculatedby dividing the total number of peopleliving in households by the number ofhouseholds in existence. In estimating numberof rooms per household, Habitat definesa room as a space at least 4 square meters,enclosed by walls at least 2 meters high,which is intended for residential use only.Examples would include bedrooms, kitchens,living and dining rooms, servants'rooms, and studies. Hallways, verandas,lobbies, bathrooms, and rooms used forwork or business purposes are not includedunless otherwise indicated in the table.The percentage of households without electricityrefers only to households not servicedby public utilities. Residences supplied bylocal generators or other privately ownedmeans would be included in the percentagewithout electricity. Readers should be cautiousin comparing figures for householdsize and electrification rates, because thesedata come from censuses taken in differentyears during the 1970-86 period.All people who work or are withoutwork but are available for and are seekingwork to produce economic goods and servicescomprise the total labor force, which includesemployed people and the unemployed(experienced workers who are268World Resources 1992-93

Land Cover and Settlements 17without work as well as those looking forwork for the first time). The InternationalLabour Office provides labor force estimatesand projections for men, women,and the total population. Women as a percentageof labor force is calculated using estimatesof the total labor force and thenumber of women in the labor force for1990. The data for total labor force, as wellas percentage of 1980 labor force in agriculture,industry, and services, take into account informationon the economically active population,which is obtained from nationalcensuses of population, labor force samplesurveys, and other surveys conductedthrough 1985. Estimates are based on midyear,medium variant population figures.(See Chapter 16, "Population and HumanDevelopment" for further information onpopulation projections.)Table 17.3 Transport andTransport Infrastructure, 1980sSources: Total road and paved road: InternationalRoad Federation (IRF), World RoadStatistics 1981-85, World Road Statistics 1985-89 (IRF, Geneva, 1986 and 1990); U.S. CentralIntelligence Agency (CIA), The WorldFactbook 1990 (CIA, Washington, D.C.,1990); for Cape Verde, Business InternationalLtd., Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Cape Verde Country Profile 1990-91(The Economist Intelligence Unit, London,1990); land area data: Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations (FAO),Agrostat PC (FAO, Rome, June 1991); railtrack: Jane's Information Group Limited,Jane's World Railways 1990-91 (Jane's InformationGroup Limited, Surrey, UnitedKingdom, 1990); commercial airports: InternationalCivil Aviation Organization(ICAO), Annual Report of the Council—1990(ICAO, Montreal, 1991); number of passengercars (persons per car), passenger-kmtraveled by car/bus and train and metricton-km of road, rail, and waterway freighttransported (primary source): IRF, WorldRoad Statistics 1981-85 and World Road Statistics1985-89 (IRF, Geneva, 1986 and 1990);all non-aircraft transported freight and passengerdata for Europe and the U.S.S.R.(when more recent than primary sourcedata) and inland waterways for Europe, theU.S.S.R., and the United States: United NationsEconomic Commission for Europe,2990 Annual Bulletin of Transport Statisticsfor Europe (U.N., New York, 1990); inlandwaterways (all other countries): CIA, TheWorld Factbook 1990 (CIA, Washington,D.C., 1990); air passenger and freight transport:ICAO, Civil Aviation Statistics of theWorld 1989 (ICAO, Montreal, 1990) and unpublisheddata (ICAO, Montreal, October1991).Definitions of total road and paved roadvary from country to country. In general,they include highways, rural roads, urbanstreets, feeder roads, and highway on- andoff-ramps. Total road for some countries includesseasonably accessible routes, agriculturalroads, and rural paths. Paved roadgenerally refers to concrete, cobblestone, bituminous-treatedand asphalt- or macadam-coveredroad. In some cases, gradedgravel roadway is included. Road data arefrom the latest figures provided by governmentsto IRF between 1981 and 1989. CIAfigures are from U.S. Defense IntelligenceAgency estimates, which in turn are basedon information published in various countryreports available as of January 1990. Estimatesare of current road extent, exceptinga few countries where data are for extentduring the mid-1980s (1980 for the DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea).Rail track generally refers to route kilometersof track, the distance covered betweentwo termini. In a few cases (portions of theU.S. and Tanzanian networks), track kilometerdistance is reported, the total amountof track between two termini (twice theroute kilometers if you have double trackbetween two points). Total rail track figuresgenerally do not include the length of sidings.Total track is the sum of public and privatelyowned systems currently in use,including lines used at mines and on plantationsto haul ore and agricultural producewhen reported. Total track includesurban rail systems but not the below groundsegments of these systems (subways).The definition of navigable inland waterwaysvaries among countries, particularlyin terms of the minimum craft size that cantravel a waterway in order for it to be considerednavigable. Waterways for Europe,the U.S.S.R., and the United States as reportedhere are considered navigable ifthey permit passage of boats and bargeswith a carrying capacity of at least 50 metrictons. Canals, rivers, lakes, and in somecases, coastal routes and estuaries are includedin the total. In a number of othercountries, seasonally accessible waterwaysare also included. Waterway length of lakesis the route distance between the two farthestpoints traveled. Canal and riverlength is measured at the deepest point ofthe watercourse. Data reported by theUnited Nations Economic Commission forEurope are the waterway extent as of 1988,with the following exceptions: Portugaland Sweden, 1982; Italy and the UnitedKingdom, 1980; Romania, 1975; Bulgaria,1973; and Czechoslovakia, 1969. Waterwaysdata reported by the CIA are fromcountry reports available as of January1990.Total number of public airports refers toland-based airports with permanent surfaceand unimproved runways. Airportsserved by regularly scheduled flights andother aerodromes open to the public are included.Data were compiled primarilythrough surveys taken by ICAO during1989-90. Some data were taken from aeronauticalpublications.Persons per car is calculated by dividingthe total number of vehicles in use on December31 of the latest census year availablebetween 1981 and 1989 with the totalpopulation for that year. For some countries,road censuses are taken earlier in theyear. In general, cars refer to privatelyowned vehicles with four or more wheels,which are used for noncommercial purposes.A few countries include commercialvehicles (such as taxis and rental cars) andminibuses under this category. Data for vehiclesin use and other transport statisticsare submitted by individual governmentsto IRF. Numbers for some countries havebeen known to vary widely from year toyear, because of changes in survey methodologiesand category definitions.Passenger-kilometers traveled per year bycar/bus, passenger train, and commercial aircraftare the total number of kilometers traveledmultiplied by the total number ofpassengers carried for each transport category.Passenger-kilometers are generally estimatedusing receipts from ticket sales anddo not include trips made by nonpayingpassengers (e.g., military personnel, transportemployees).Metric ton-kilometers of freight moved peryear is the total number of tons moved multipliedby the total distance traveled. Bothpassenger and freight transport data arebased on the latest census results availablebetween 1981 and 1989 for road, rail, and inlandwaterway transport (1980 data for waterwayfreight transport for Switzerland).Air freight and passenger transport dataare based on 1989 figures and estimates.Passenger-kilometers and kilometers of freighttransported by aircraft consist of all travelon international and domestically scheduledcommercial flights on carriers based withinthe country in question. For multinationalcarriers such as Air Afrique, totals are generallyapportioned equally among the consortiumcountries. International totals forboth freight and passenger transport includetravel by national carriers betweencountries outside of the host nation. For additionalinformation, refer to the source.World Resources 1992-93269

18. Food and AgricultureOver the past 10 years, the world's food productionincreased by 24 percent while its population grewalmost 20 percent. Food production increased, in part,because of increases in irrigation, mechanization, landused for agriculture, and inputs of fertilizers and pesticides.World trade in food, as well as food aid, also increasedduring this period. Physical, political, economic,and technological constraints, however, raisequestions as to how long this growth can be sustained.Even though the world's food production has outpacedpopulation growth, regional and national datashow that this increase did not occur everywhere. (SeeTable 18.1.) Despite a 30 percent increase in cereal production,Africa's per capita food output has droppedby 5 percent in the past decade. Per capita food productionin North and Central America declined aswell. In South America, Asia, Europe, and the U.S.S.R.,food production grew faster than the population. However,increases in cereal production do not always representimprovements in food availability. Over 50percent of cereal consumed in Europe, North America,and the Soviet Union is eaten by livestock.Yield differences reflect the intensity of agriculturalactivity. On a global average, 1 hectare yielded about2.6 metric tons of cereals and 11.8 metric tons of rootsand tubers. However, 1 hectare in Africa yielded only1.2 metric tons of cereals and 7.9 metric tons of rootsand tubers, whereas Europe produced 4.2 and 21.2metric tons, respectively.Differences in yields are principally caused by differencesin agricultural inputs. (See Table 18.2.) Europeanagriculture applies 2.3 times more fertilizer per hectareof cropland than the global average, whereas Africauses one fifth of the world average. Reasons for lowrates of fertilizer use include lack of financial resources,low crop prices relative to fertilizer prices,and poor distribution systems. Geographic distributionof use rates of other inputs is similar. With onlyone third of the world's cropland, North Americanand European farmers own nearly two thirds of theworld's tractors. In contrast, African farmers, with 10percent of the world's crop area, own only 2 percent ofthe world's tractors, many of them out of operation becauseof high fuel prices and a lack of spare parts.Livestock continues to supply traction power for cultivationand harvest in much of the world and is an importantsource for food, raw materials, fertilizer, andenergy. Table 18.3 shows that during the past decade,the number of cattle declined slightly in Europe, NorthAmerica, and Oceania but increased in South America,Asia, and Africa. The world chicken population hasgrown by 53 percent, with over a 100 percent increasein Asia.The world's agricultural production systems are integratedin the world market for commodities and theflows of food aid. (See Table 18.4.) Many countries dependon agricultural trade to earn foreign exchange,but a steady decline in world commodity prices (seeChapter 15, "Basic Economic Indicators," Table 15.4)forces exporting countries to increase exports or face adecrease in export earnings. The same decrease in commodityprices, however, has made food imports moreaffordable for nations with agricultural trade deficits.Trade in cereals, oils, and pulses has grown by a factorof 2.5 in the past decade. The United States, Canada, andFrance are the largest net exporters of cereals, whereasthe U.S.S.R. and Japan are the greatest net importers.Food aid often links agricultural areas producingsubsidized surpluses with countries in need. Canada,the United States, Japan, and the European Communityare the world's largest donors of cereals. (See Tables18.4 and 18.5.) Egypt and Bangladesh receive themost cereal aid in total, whereas Cape Verde and Jamaicalead the world in the amount of cereal aid receivedper capita. Asia's agricultural success isdemonstrated by a 26 percent decline in metric tons ofcereal aid received over the past decade, although thataid has risen over the past two years. The UnitedStates provides 53 percent of all cereal aid.The inherent fertility of soils and the climatic regimetogether determine which crops can be grown, whatinputs are required, and what outputs are possible.Table 18.6 presents country data on the percent ofsoils that fall within the four climatic classes (arid,semi-arid, humid, and cold) and the three temperaturezones. Also presented is the amount of land that hasno inherent soil constraints and the percent of thisland that falls within each of the four climate classes.To increase agricultural production, countries mayneed to use more intensive soil management practicesto exploit lands with physical or chemical constraints.In Africa and Southwest Asia, more than 70 percent ofthe land that has no inherent soil constraints is locatedin arid areas in which growing seasons for rainfed agricultureare very short. In South America and SoutheastAsia, however, most of the land without soil constraintsis located in humid areas, which have longergrowing seasons.World Resources 1992-93271

18 Food and AgricultureTable 18-1 Food and Agricultural Production, 1978-90BurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameIndex of AgriculturalProduction(1979-81 =100)Index of FoodProduction(1979-81 =100)AverageAverageProduction of CerealsYields of CerealsAverage Yieldsof Roots and TubersTotal Per Capita Total Per Capita1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90(000 Percent Kilograms Percentmetric Change Per Changetons) Since Hectare Since1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80KilogramsPercentPerChangeHectareSince1988-90 1978-80WORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina Faso98989710110195981221241239816011014610010110010410498100104959578123791169898971001019598 12212512210115411014410010110010310498100104969480118791141,859,00591,1021,380302571791,9471830(26)(30)4917872 2,6381,1986213078703316912011(3)512011,7957,8898,8264,1028,7887,0006,827(5)1627 417(5)(16)959810098991201191531221249810110110010193901249610098981009797122119154121120100100101100100959012495972989171414969150 41265617 1,3131,2344341,1066452447(9)107258,3332,5513,5293,5815,51415 4(3)1124ComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritania1019693X97X9898101979797100106988697999598123121132X142X1041151181461111211461051121481191181301131059897 X100X101103104100991011041091019010010297100909293 X114X8481901088910210582841039086100891019695 X98X9998101979797102107978697999598123121138 X154X1051141191481091211491041141481201131271131059899 X100X101103105100991011061101009010010297100909298 X123X8581911098710210781861039183988919221,195 X11,024X6,07822981,0527862403,3221772433552,4741,4982,13815444340X36X610936582522435(25)(1)461551002731,629759884X5,254X1,2091,5581,1401,0299381,2041,7227651,1788221,9191,107962896512411 X31X3(7)029(2)9731(34)(5)10915(8)121565,1436,8265,911 X28,3302,7883,3666,2423,0006,7976,0635,7148,66310,0007,5486,9806,4393,1538,6252,00039828X6433104(15)(4)11X101112(32)4(9)10310498999811417010612310810410710110210110313584938010410598999811417010812510810510710110110110313586958037,2626341351,96216763(3)5119 2,6671,323551591417(11)35(17)24(6)18,33317,8266,0468,8337,106622620(4(5NigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHonduras969499100979596949798981039710397979910098999810010099999515110713310813510710012412213211812812714113410379115114123110112821171081259998102102102989997101101101107991071009899102991029810210210110199 113791038799887692881019493971001029277921059610191729091929694991019795949497999810397103959799100981009810010397100951511031331091351089812512312811712712713912610479115115117109116107123110123999810210310297979710110110110699107989899102991039910310510010199 1137610488998875938898949297989692779210691101949495939112,90726996148961212,7843,0541464,1134928551,4801,2671,7422,679343,65622947,3553086045308081,51539962390223(16)132410563867(18)17505444(D01719(6)10211140(2)311,1181,1077791,3417291,9534991,8331,3918948511,4737581,8181,5393,5652,0001,7252,2002,6452,4733,4851,9341,8749541,35710(3)1726423(23)363122198(2)162530(6)262211321 33312,2887,8014,2363,3409,80013,7172,4773,2507,0967,92612,0006,3407,5623,6704,78719,2165,667X24,9798,4845,3106,83316,0004,3504,0257,00023(10)(3)(14)(14)17(25)66(21)(17)63611 5227(54)X 741(11)173721 16310697111971131041177510984107100114100115919555907210697113981131031188210686107991161001159196618874322,70048431513 (63)232832(24)1,2862,2651,6031,7832,600(20)111427(18)12,56613,89611,8269,17910,00015 78611(3)United StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombia969696969495981001241081341311301259799989996961009210395105108112104969795969595971001261071361341311319899979897961009210595107111112109267,96576,35619,75675439,7832,9763,958(5)22

Food and Agriculture 18Table 18.1ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgium (a)BulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanySource:Notes:(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourg (a)MaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsIndex of AgriculturalIndex of FoodAverageProduction of CerealsProduction(1979-81 =100)Production(1979-81 = 100)(000metricPercentChangeTotal Per Capita Total Per Capita tons) Since1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1988-90 1978-8097 139 99 118 97 139 99 117 833,141 3396 135 100 99 96 135 99 99 11,128 29100 84 99 85 100 84 99 85 3,463 (18)X X X X X X X XX X99 122 102 95 99 123 102 97 27,382 3498 100 99 84 98 100 99 8498 (37)107 208 106 166 106 203 105 163 2,484 8396 151 97 134 97 149 98 132 369,576 31101 112 102 102 101 112 102 102 135 5498 143 100 118 98 144 100 119 193,601 4293 151 95 126 93 153 95 128 50,163 61102 123 106 90 102 124 106 90 2,070 21102 107 104 92 104 116 106 100 223 3104 98 105 93 104 101 105 95 14,214 (7)97 157 101 112 98 158 102 113 110 2297 126108 97 125107 10,417 21104X88100951019598X9596X1359896929898X9410498999799969710099102989998979810010597X10495991041021001019999989810410110393979893106X151142169110120139X148109X40396100116127120X14872571091121089696126130112104113989811090112100X1111211041141131001179910910999119113117102106128122106X89999710497101X9899X140999895100100X971081009999991179810199102981001151089910110797X10596991051021011029999989810510310595971009695X1201411338699111X10787X27487878510897X122534510594108117941231291081001121171041118210898X11511510110710796112971041079411098102869910489104X88100921019598X9596X1359895919898X94Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.a. Data for Belgium and Luxembourg are combined under Belgium.World and regional totals include some countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.10498999899969710099102989998979910010597X10495991041011001019999989810510310493999893108X151145196114122141X144109X40897101114124120X14572561081121089610112613011210411398981119011199X11112110411611310011799110109100121109109103112129122105 97X X89 12199 14594 155104 8997 101100 113X X98 10499 86X X141 27799 8797 8894 83100 105100 97X X96 119108 53100 4499 105100 9499 108117 11797 99101 12399 129102 10898 100100 112115 117108 10499 112101 82107 10897 97X X105 11596 11599 101105 109102 107100 96102 11299 9799 10498 10799 94106 112104 95106 9595 8799 104100 10596 898,708 03 X1,353 4976 501,759 (7)752 13214,112 205,451 542 020,387 2713,851 283 3503,596 1,075X X2,289 133,156 1724,636 2328,125 135 25018,971 67549 (28)30 (75)285,975 141,023 115,104 142,313 988,41212,149 188,893 203,636 1456,095 2226,372 1310,974 164,697 213,484 2X X2,108 1217,315 (3)X X9 351,314 11,150 226,492 391,535 2518,320 (6)20,766 275,512 21,307 5722,074 2214,923 (1)205,449 523,524 522,693 533 79792 030 (25)(100)AverageYields of CerealsKilograms PercentPer ChangeHectare Since1988-90 1978-802,713 321,338X2,4831,0391,3614,0572,3091,8613,7151,2249711,9885,6627976,5985,9333,0002,1771,8762,6421,2252,7521,8321,5001,7451,9363,0004,261X2,8921,2092,0892,0574,6672,9889711,08520X6666(11)11522151001422X502X24181011X553(30)4,240 202,914 155,407 286,235 293,991 94,951 255,646 403,016 156,101 315,715 294,507 203,306 134,772 7X X6,169 353,816 10X X3,857 166,681 193,325 (8)3,136 291,659 593,115 22,669 224,333 226,312 305,792 243,550 31,925 201,688 171,6512,3814,5261,8000Average Yieldsof Roots and TubersKilograms PercentPer ChangeHectare Since1988-90 1978-8012,210 (16)5X(0)5435(32)4?29(4)3113 15,000XX28 10,181(28) 10,06729 8,36038 11,74029 22,70842 15,55240 11,4733 13,91423 16,556163 37,27824,59949 18,62514 13,3811723155(100)21,579X8,41317,1289,4369,6108,5536,693X10,0636,805X18,50009,19815,33814,48621,926X7,65312,8428,00021,1958,81826,96042,64311,33918,31738,33620,74033,00936,93123,63419,57317,93210,33325,61319,339X8,50041,18624,60718,9628,20511,00318,40232,41239,43337,8907,49010,99511,29528,0439,50030,2867,22515,61124524X(15)125272225X(3)(7)XXX41(1)35X1510(50)102698131046232127202617(9)510X310(7)10(13)(26)19121013(14)(6)10242513322World Resources 1992-93273

18 Food and AgricultureTable 18.2 Agricultural Inputs, 1975-89WORLDCroplandTotal HectaresHectaresPer(000) Capita1989 19901,478,190 0.28Irrigated LandasaPercentage ofCropland1977-79 1987-8914 16Average AnnualFertilizer Use(kilograms perhectare of cropland)1977-79 1987-8973 97Average AnnualPesticide Use(metric tons ofactive ingredient)1975-77 1982-84XXAverageNumber1987-8925,896,523TractorsPercentChangeSince1977-7926HarvestersPercentAverage ChangeNumber Since1987-89 1977-793,964,402 22AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela186,9957,6053,6001,8601,3803,5641,3367,008392,0063,2051001683,660X2,58523013,9304521782,7207283352,4283203732,1503,0922,4092,0931991069,2413,1006623,60531,3351,1535,2261,8011,03913,17412,5101645,2501,4444,7006,7057,8505,2682,810273,834335645,9605283,3291,4467331,8759051,81026924,7101,273577120189,915142,13435,7503,46078,6504,5255,3802,6534952,2163,730681,3043,8950.290.300.360.401.060.400.240.590.110.660.560.180.070.310.000.050.650.280.390.210.180.130.350.100.180.140.470.260.280.230.100.100.370.200.400.470.290.160.710.430.140.370.500.210.190.410.570.360.220.620.290.640.130.301.730.180.310.200.140.200.140.350.110.280.330.240.090.760.481.110.470.520.340.160.250.620.520.170.160.420.205 6 143 4 21X X00 6110000 24 5 10 0 55 5 0X X 10 0 2X21X98X22X9910 1119 29176 110614 1612 142 41 11 13031103032110013X2230211521191013233117109 7014 15 235 38 8320 3010X21102211938412206517105442287192523156569X4222261616485132175181065532892126333858720275315360020810X384X16,457XXXX22XXXXXXXX26,970X569,55421,400 93,757XXX 10,2701234,217X12559 129XX 1,00316X 195X 165XXXX19,567XX600 9933 XXX X17 101 b4 X1147151040321610245 30221 346 1X1110111388716236381431334113353413554431446110531314227553022235495451XX935 bX1,2232,610 aXXX11 ba2,225 hXX451X1753XX1,307X3102,0171,630X683X9813,350XX159X6953,450852,4971003,9001,427433,900250489,5381,75032431,3672,8471,38083533235034,0675,7502,95017910 4,000 b 11,0331503 X88X 477XX 5102,1005844722011756859171471911925012169320105735562289540524673903029654744816219,292X162,992X11,053XX5,733XXXX865 bXXX26,9283,0277,8171,9611,3104,627156 d94086119,1482,9431,542X459,400X7,44861259,2921,83819,3445,4457052,9572,370974 b1,3906,9231,33023XX207XXX54,7673,6679,567ab3,2972,838 a5,117X8591,42027,6302,0032,393X373,333X14,31383346,6981,80016,1003,1106583,4232,7531,720 a1,5178,143183,23321,0003,29318,55035325,9674,2002,3335,70920,3675,709,4636081,050756,3006,35075,3682,3073,4074,1602153,4203,037165,3332,5106,2302,6204,670,0001,089,234209,3334,690680,00038,44734,7118,4003,58010,50016,0001,25035,20046,8333011632611123110147373810X52133853224(7)161081151371655,7149,009XX87XXXX1517X5058X2,278X150X5480XX70332X61X1214225 X348X2911X42 4,7362X20X31X36 X8X1315032039210815112638937303(2)15391691298730111253342916(6)432030591231495107261793343120XX25XXXX576X7078X7X3X50XX8520XX33X20XX47XXXXX15500X33,0001,220XXX3716XXX2,63714X281590828,610X40156,7001,1207,202X3852,973XXX18,233X1,950X640,000114,04647,50012044,0008,6002,567737423XX2554,6405,20050X(0)X52(3)1545X3319XXX30X61X(1)19111129828204XX42(2)86274World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 18Table 18.232 56 111 XXCroplandIrrigated Land Average Annual Average AnnualTractorsTotal Hectares as aFertilizer UsePesticide UsePercentHectares Per Percentage of (kilograms per(metric tons ofAverage Change(000) Capita Cropland hectare of cropland) active ingredient)Number Since1989 1990 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1975-77 1982-84 1987-89 1977-79ASIA454,115 0.15 295,122,884 87New Zealand507 0.15 33 54 1,110 670 1,651 1,793 78,433 (11)Papua New Guinea388 0.10 XX XX 210 390 XX X 1,150Solomon Islands57 0.18XXAfghanistan8,054 0.49 32 33 7 8 1,000 a 605 b770 3Bahrain2 0.00 50 50 0 333 XXX XBangladesh9,292 0.08 15 26 40 86 X2345,083 39Bhutan131 0.09 20 26 00 0 XXX XCambodia3,056 0.37 3 30 1,5938331,363 1China96,115 0.08 47 47 115 255 150,467 159,267878,453 54Cyprus156 0.22 19 21 94 141 XX13,583 30India168,990 0.20 22 25 29 62 52,506 53,087791,289 136Indonesia21,260 0.12 25 35 35 113 18,687 16,344 16,100 75Iran, Islamic Rep14,830 0.27 37 39 27 72 X X 112,667 77Iraq5,450 0.29 31 42 13 39 XX39,062 95Israel433 0.09 47 49 186 234 60084728,502 18Japan4,637 0.04 67 62 481 425 33,960 32,000 1,979,260 89Jordan376 0.11 10 15 26 63 XX5,682 35Korea, Dem People's Rep2,000 0.09 53 68 355 396 4,000 aX71,000 116Korea, Rep2,127 0.05 62 64 385 411 4,675 12,27325,269 1,494Kuwait4 0.00 25 50 83 167 XX 117 343Lao People's Dem Rep901 0.22 9 13 0 0 X XX840 920Lebanon301 0.11 29 29 116 79 X 3,000Malaysia4,880 0.27 7 7 77 150 X 9,730 a 11,833 57Mongolia1,375 0.63 2 5 5 15 XX11,681 23Myanmar10,034 0.24 10 10 8 11 3,721 15,30010,872 30Nepal2,641 0.14 15 34 7 23 XX2,870 50Oman48 0.03 78 85 14 83 XX136 54Pakistan20,730 0.17 69 78 42 85 2,120 1,856176,000 136Philippines7,970 0.13 14 20 38 64 3,547 b 4,4158,077 (25)Qatar5 0.01 X X 67 200 XX90 79Saudi Arabia1,185 0.08 32 36 12 398 XX1,850 85Singapore1 0.00 X X 3,333 6,000 XX59 49Sri Lanka1,901 0.11 27 29 69 107 X69729,000 54Syrian Arab Rep5,503 0.44 10 12 20 46 X 4,892 b,c 54,767 137Thailand22,126 0.40 12 19 13 33 13,120 22,289142,667 206Turkey27,885 0.50 7 8 49 62 X 9,000 a 654,336 80United Arab Emirates39 0.02 13 13 60 120 XXX XViet Nam6,600 0.10 21 28 47 79 1,693883 b 35,533 30Yemen (Arab Rep)1,362 0.15 17 18 6 6 325 c,d 1,614 b,c,d 2,257 28(People's Dem Rep) 119 0.05 41 49 6 3 XX3,047 40EUROPE139,865 0.27 10 12 225 227 XX 10,244,872 30Albania707 0.22 51 59 131 141 4,510 5,18311,443 14Austria1,533 0.20 0 0 255 210 3,449 4,548339,168 8Belgium (e)822 f 0.08 f 0 0 555 505 8,847 13,263121,896 10Bulgaria4,146 0.46 28 30 185 199 28,287 32,40053,510 (17)Czechoslovakia5,108 0.33 3 6 335 313 13,967 14,970140,494 1Denmark2,555 0.50 13 17 271 243 4,998 7,729166,210 (13)Finland2,453 0.49 2 3 190 205 1,768 2,639242,667 21France19,119 0.34 4 6 292 312 83,017 98,733 1,511,711 7Germany (Fed Rep)7,478 0.12 4 4 464 405 11,900 14,133 1,447,768 0)(Dem Rep)4,913 0.30 3 3 343 352 23,693 29,836167,669 20Greece3,924 0.39 24 30 141 165 30,570 29,240187,000 53Hungary5,287 0.50 5 3 287 258 26,267 27,59552,220 (10)Iceland8 0.03 X X 3,750 2,792 3 g,c 5 g,c 13,067 6Ireland953 0.27 X X 655 717 1,721 2,250163,667 26Italy12,033 0.21 23 26 177 172 83,724 98,496 1,362,786 43Luxembourg (e)X f X f X X X X XXX XMalta13 0.04 8 8 77 77 XX448 11Netherlands934 0.06 49 58 703 662 6,593 9,670194,000 15Norway878 0.21 8 11 290 252 1,494 1,508153,491 27Poland14,759 0.391 1 244 224 11,360 15,277 1,099,139 111Portugal3,771 0.37 17 17 70 75 24,375 16,01677,173 25Romania10,350 0.44 20 33 130 135 29,397 17,237166,883 20Spain20,345 0.52 142 164 77 101 55,267 71,533700,869 54Sweden2,853 0.33182 134 5,454 5,736183,000 (2)Switzerland412 0.06 6 6 417 430 1,945 1,699109,000 25United Kingdom6,736 0.12 2 2 313 359 25,137 34,147518,165 6Yugoslavia7,766 0.33 2 2 108 126 19,091 31,567 1,061,000 211U.S.S.R.230,630 0.80 7 9 78 114 348,767 535,400 2,742,667 11OCEANIA50,617 1.90 3 4 33 33 XX417,858 (2)Australia48,934 2.87 3 4 23 26 60,638 65,200 332,000 0Fiji240 0.31 0 0 57 97 XX4,290 13Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, and other sources.Notes: a. One year of data. b. Two years of data. c. May not be active ingredient, d. Imports of pesticides, e. Data for Belgium and Luxembourgare combined under Belgium, f. Cropland data for Belgium and Luxembourg are for 1987. g. Sales of pesticides.World and regional totals include some countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.HarvestersAverageNumberPercentChangeSince1987-89 1977-791,341,084 82XXXX2035,1295602,85017,1002,8502,6712801,234,25769X26,138XX95X2,63242X35823620X600X52,616X11,6085XX20831,8011,65428,6218,4737,81121,35733,91344,333145,989140,66718,1566,60010,759175,14045,045X105,64718,63372,1624,75048,35548,31847,0004,20054,3339,856732,66760,48056,900X3,103464XXXXX0795626228(4)(31)(8)8314X10,852XX6X1085X2158254X71X6714X(21)150XX50222(10)(15)(25)14(16)3(1)(18)3716(26)16(5)47X(23)(9)2013710611(8)(22)(6)(6)9(4)(2)X(29)33XWorld Resources 1982-93275

18 Food and AgricultureTable 18.3 Livestock Populations and Grain Consumed asWORLDCattle Sheep and Goats Pigs Equines Buffaloes and Camels ChickensAnnual Percent Annual Percent Annual Percent Annual Percent Annual Percent Annual PercentAverage Change Average Change Average Change Average Change Average Change Average Change(000) Since (000) Since (000) Since (000) Since (000) Since (millions) Since1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-801,271,279 5 1,716,749 131988-90 1978-80845,108 101988-90 1978-80118,602 71988-90 1978-80157,967 151988-90 1978-8010,399 53Grain Fed toLivestock asPercentage ofTotal GrainConsumption1970 199038 38AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela183,7151,4523,1339322,5222,8534324,583172,4934,15646651,022723,402528,633263921,1771,80034013,4335304224010,2599874,8731,258333,2871,3672,0613,57012,0006132,6743305,02811,85720,55665412,9562455474,2151,5002,7726,252161,050185012,1871,7504,9442,2051,1711,9301,5672,24029030,1001,6771,4477998,616262,25450,7155,609138,8043,35124,4644,1812108,0364,022889,50013,250812420(13)5(42)414670(2)(30)(2)6276582510550345262027(9)1132527(3)732(6)(1)(23)12(0)(4)6(3)29(13)19(0)8(15)(19)312711(7)(5)1(9)(16)(6)372,03817,0151,2501,8842,1768,4731,2086,4021041,3314,6041323671,9789168,0394341,3872363614,54896541513,8862,5004756,7701,9161,10711,3337,44010223,310500907911,09231,0001,4565,04951034,58336,91434,58335613,2302,6246,4434,0033,9446063,14633,566905755549414 13,145 37 19,094 12 16,87714 5 15 624 (29) 1289 486 27 6 0X2 681 567 0X19915 110 184 27X88 497 194 464 7255480 12811 19 X35 397 890 0 X(9)13 56 425 2 53034 84 119 X XX40 1,300 17 65 35X40 X X 4 20X40 73 (9) 249 27 X24 140 40 X X X84 48 31 X XX3 351 14X 2 0X(2) X8 14 58138 92 177 1,974 17 2,6648 5 25 X XX320 11 8,070 24 1,07029 155 19 X X X24 11 10 20 0X17 550 4712 (59)X17 34 (10)3 (25)X20 290 18 4 0X11 101 20 2 08004 X X 109 38 1892 1,419 7102 (100)XX41 260 3567(10) 59 35 589 4 236(2 X X 167 5 81328X XX131,626 (15)1520 014124 715811 18031772926(1)181343981312178559(1)142511671010916549371,06710948750101,470X23280389446181019324088,730492610,7282231,81714(11)146816651207421,336 344411102515423447807933687412(34)24(13)12(11)2524(6)145(1)391116f44315,5121076312,935134,75932,26114,65032,3337,1603,6311,65919758914,5641524,9412,04219(2)71715(7)10(9)28251022(34)913(12)73402323316,4476902187254,77154,8034,2332,12232,3401,4032,6074,1671852,2862,304242152,90958234336247(2)18244117X3381623312419(10)47(5)85621428(19)(10)12(48)501712823(11)61646(6)37342439981422(41)40950X680X50454687161735355170212621,449594161266905861181597352613712,52330317655,26021,4433,1931,0259,3465413,27782433771,368X4771,0070X49X101(2)(2)7114106010011100152(18)405873(7)Ki40411(2)(9)19101636041X(4)039XX41918X15X6,849X2,761XXX185XXXX9XXXXXXXXXXXXXX9X1,190XX1,190XXXXXXXXX16(12)XXX(6)XXXX26XXX177X10XXXXX32XX67XX6838 46 423 32 06 20 024 132 02 100 022 97 04 33 017 79 0X X 03 125 04 33 0X225X34X572X91312414X6761X24X100X(27)105044010037 600199 14822 7811 4 33X(80)XX86X114X26X9XXX8XXXX13XXXXXXXXXXXXXX13X162XX162XXXXXXXXX23822117160114633832131635172015101,861111084282451014862357791,39187744145432740511517576755506535X79450865003122090143622840(22)113333X14(33)241210(29)1808513426233243343249139584883224655272251X08X0X00000010000000000X0000073290000130001474XX78160222513016018191308038462244291380016037161836000200000X04X36X00050032104102200290X01131324100316270741665XX792445026259353431030337046423555332022302801235276World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 18Feed, 1978-90 Table 18.3ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaBar IndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgium {a}BulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanySources:Notes:(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourg (a)MaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsGrain Fed to1114 419,279 16 44,171157Cattle Sheep and Goats Pigs Equines Buffaloes and Camels Chickens Livestock asAnnual Percent Annual Percent Annual Percent Annual Percent Annual Percent Annual Percent Percentage ofAverage Change Average Change Average Change Average Change Average Change Average Change Total Grain(000) Since (000) Since (000) Since (000) Since (000) Since (millions) Since Consumption1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1988-90 1978-80 1970 1990389,730640,93812 138,8144,293 107167,986 (2) 62,378 (4) 412 (8) 98 50X X 9 42 59 49102 (22)16X 81 1,776 30 1 0X X 3 125 0 013 (45)X 52 19 X XX X X X X X1,600 (57) 14,600 (33) X X 1,730 (0) 265 (5) 7 17 0 06 624 18 X X X X 1 0 1 0 X X23,102 (17) 12,083 16 X X 45 4 1,757 20 85 35 0 0408 39860 228 70 29 53 374 (20) X X 0 02,017 1530 1,545 737 16 85 727 92 7 100 0 075,243 43 198,031 15 348,209 13 26,855 18 21,602 17 1,920 141 8 2047 130 523 2 277 69 8 (51)X X 3 33 0 68195,267 6 160,586 31 10,333 15 2,486 23 74,980 14 290 92 1 210,417 61 16,252 37 6,551 113 709 16 3,347 39 464 220 1 68,117 8 47,707 1 0 (100) 2,136 (9) 257 4 115 71 16 201,642 (4) 10,967 (6) X X 498 (5) 202 (20) 78 324 0 27357 17509 30 125 35 11 010 (9) 23 (8) 62 584,703 146811,802 25 21 (9)X X 334 19 34 4829 (1) 1,758 30 X X 25 (8) 16 45 60 123 16 311,277 38669 30 3,148 57 47 20X X 20 13 0 02,159 25157 (33) 4,645 123 4 (20)X X 60 54 6 3922 57266 (44) X X 3 07 47 27 264 0 77808 94111 169 1,330 33 43 43 1,046 37 8 64 0 059 (25) 614 30 48 184 18 13 0 X 12 71 22 34651 25467 13 2,388 41 5 0 197 (32) 142 189 3 412,549 4 18,116 (3) 157 454 2,117 1 553 (9) X X 0 09,451 14 1,375 68 2,750 34 135 14 2,095 15 28 42 0 06,303 (8) 6,171 16 546 48 X X 2,989 26 7 17 0 0136 1945 176 XX XX 25 0 84 157 2 0 01 2017,364 16 62,562 283,633 25 15,325 26 166 23731,670 (9) 2,205 45 7,793 5 300 0) 2,832 (2) 65 22 11 2110 25204 116 XX X 1 (50) 22 109 1 300 0 71253 (33) 11,401 128X 119 5 405 51 70 380 0 750 (100)2 (25) 350X X0 (100) 4 (70) 0 371,816 13546 11 96 801 (50) 971 16 9 65 0 0773 4 15,055 63 1 50 249 (25)6 (45) 13 (9) 0 175,342 27252 192 4,755 21 18 (42) 5,500 (6) 95 56 1 2611,800 (21) 48,550 (23) 10X (25) 2,030 (19) 543 (48) 58 1448 95820 82X X X 105 94 7 5673,101 89413 106 11,972 33 137 4 2,810 22 73 27712 (17) 2,951 (19) X X 349 (37) 42 (30) 16 336260003300064 (30) 1,557 (25) X X 43 (30) 54 (47) 1 0 0 0124,900 (7) 166,023 24 185,696 8 5,729 (23) 370 (17) 1,289 7 60 60699 18 2,710 41 187 16 177 502 0 6 89 0 02,564 0303 34 3,865 (1) 46 5X X 14 0 62 723,134 2198 74 6,155 22 23 (48)X X 35 17 62 281,612 (8) 8,974 (16) 4,168 14 475 (3) 23 (59) 40 4 55 585,083 5 1,108 19 7,372 (3) 44 (12)X X 47 4 64 632,248 (26)86 56 9,156 (2) 35 (37)X X 16 7 86 821,39264 (42) 1,322 (3) 40 21X X 6 (33) 71 6221,723 (9) 13,123 3 12,418 9 304 (26)X X 204 19 66 6214,703 (2) 1,523 30 22,808 3 372 d)X X 72 (18) 60 595,718 3 2,650 33 12,327 4 104 58X X 50 0 71 62729 (26) 16,432 31 1,175 30 311 (38)1 (57) 27 (7) 45 581,651 (15) 2,222 (21) 8,068 (0) 84 (39)X X 57 (9) 74 7073 19700 (19) 12 24 56 12X X X X X X5,705 (8) 5,034 106 972 (11) 75 (28)X X 8 (8) 68 618,759 2 12,772 29 9,332 3 386 (25) 107 26 136 (0) 48 49X XX X X X X XX X X X X X20 4511 (3) 100 582 2 (25)X X 1 0 7 04,628 (6) 1,460 63 13,893 44 64 (9)X X 100 29 62 39945 (3) 2,293 14 717 5 18 (10)X X 4 (8) 75 6510,368 (20) 4,325 2 19,301 (10) 988 (46)X X 60 (22) 54 661,345 3 6,110 14 2,425 (17) 276 (9)X X 18 8 37 426,402 3 17,869 14 13,749 33 722 21 211 (7) 126 47 51 675,190 11 28,646 68 16,746 66 478 (28)X X 51 1 62 691,676 (12) 397 2 2,238 (17) 58 2X X 11 (13) 74 771,845 (9) 440 (1) 1,889 (11) 51 8X X 6 (5) 59 6411,897 (12) 28,837 35 7,641 (3) 173 16X X 122 2 59 504,782 (13) 7,661 3 7,650 (3) 368 (50) 25 (67) 74 30 56 59118,767 4 145,588 (2) 78,134 8 6,204 1 707 18 1,163 32 49 5530,862 (15) 223,838 12 5,321 17 511 (18)X X 79 42 46 5022,296 (19) 161,292 20 2,662 14 324 (32)X X 62 39 44 51160 275 70 11 (13) 42 14X X 3 200 0 0Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the United States Department of Agriculture.a. Data for Belgium and Luxembourg are combined under Belgium.World and regional totals for livestock populations include data for countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.World Resources 1992-93277

18 Food and AgricultureTable 18.4 Food Trade and Aid, 1977-89WORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela1977-79 1987-891987-89 1977-791977-79 1987-89 1986-88Average Annual Net Trade in FoodAverage Annual Donations or Receipts of Food AidCerealsOilsPulsesCerealsOils Milk(000 metric tons)(metric tons)(metric tons) (000 metric tons) Kg Per Capita (metric tons) (metric tons)1977-79 1987-891977-791987-891986-88137 1,125 1,73500 9 4 2 1 134 264133 320 (4,322) (16,245) (478)1 6 5 1 0 2778561 44 2,282 3,893 3,118 1,517 34 54 120 155 812 9358 34 385 31380 00 1 4 18 14 1548720 50 0 (867)35 22 741 1,25113,868 23,295 760,698 1,752,130 30,112 189,845 3,360 5,723 7 9 185,972 92,0972,740 5,565 216,492 344,217 64,676 109,936 10 16 1 1 329 280283 273 47,269 28,048 30,845 26,901 12 86 2 9 4,437 3,49043 104 (11,574) (12,584) 65 167 8 12 2 3 697 1,03247 90 (790) (3,582) (583) 2,345 7 43 8 36 2,945 3,28268 111 2,196 3,539 (3,645) (2,069) 41 38 6 4 2,923 4,9861756314235,242222032472218641(2)91796191819481481501,572247X351,6541144474130(2,469)421652378033308115(375)(101,874)499(17,812)621,832266168176163923192,9586660216(90,701)(5,743)(14,590)2924,079945559233(37)541,049(28)(50)1,7463191648458,72712798558224117857(96)1221201,45810759922031881,643434X10739110464137233(2,612)3114373921,64619405125(235)(107,247)6612(22,469)2752,3476261912312111433745,69516196267(95,693)(1,201)(8,771)2612,392232789493211,411(39)(264)2,28601,251(76,760)29360,15801,2103,477(12,748)12,3264,11614459,860X(2,683)41,90613,8443,807(7,308)3,73115,413158,9714,150X2,53495,7101,355(126,965)(6,712)7,470(6,812)(22,951)011,623609(24,436)33(26,551)13,075(7,687)(1,129,722)1,0591,403(129,233)6,930172,46046,79922,6989,65028,64811,16913,42190,12210,02219,45912,924(1,456,504)(780,927)(649,935)23,683(619,942)58,327108,08043,1366,009(8,220)68,485771(6,460)194,4701178,173(116,726)4,746599,2931,75024,810(2,752)(2,459)11,1336,933553130,288X(1,003)68,93311,6015,960(2,417)23,21725,931216,04546,282X6,28339,7589,960(93,841)4,57618,883166,20731,67840033,6034,09480,3349,700(7,982)8,03420,320(420,211)1,9571,330(341,699)(173)217,828102,56040,72858,27368,800(11,553)22,692490,72032,73121,6106,432(1,145,498)(2,146,080)(1,860,129)4,521(789,239)48,596113,58434,5372,983(11,033)67,8523,328(8,338)245,90403821126966,8100(41,559)4501,672X31(15,369)2581858,825(10,140(9,542352092733351,976013,433230183X72(41,680)4,30010010,333(4,236)(21,216)(46 (470)2 1506,978(52,308)(3,007)7,667(14,509)5,520052894294(1,571)3,0500(16,430)(43)(10,104)0644659(1,096)(350,990)1,364366(74,027)2,270103,0462,924602,177407(575)487(117,834)(1,198)4,19110,291(292,587)(118,177)(192,473)18549,056(66,903)13,2091,7273,1190(1,470)1,2011,81172,0649,872(32,538)29,6129,333(9,960)8,333(61)31707,3571,71818,5000(20,000)3486,3740500226(1,484)(684,650)1,234(164)(392,909)(131)125,59313,2374,9681,1898,0334,1361,7107,63413,0585,48612,135(497,316)(34,139)(145,479)79935,802(65,276)63,6193684,000637,6104,067' 2,32657,40254031,953817131,6830 224 411 28104 6561 09 1471 7426 53189 101120102183791401180300128658008609712158040310(6,825)00(932)1027696117770420(6,097)175(25)643301371120103111555422396423041098146129056896911365209610921(6,696)02(1,157)1240208200263971173021097000(7,031)13201050031157615013334243862130441,5232511917140175101152512018,96105265,3222804139952,310171010325981006031621605155260260(19)10(40)00511125370110(27)0914628211728060112121802412334713142(16)012(45)430304030162412611900(29)X9,657761,2052,0922832,60610,855X1,156X1,89675268616,71304,9314271,3711,1321,5603,842010,162220(443,672)0X(74,043)1311,57332,43924,17317,6508,2422,1455866,1726,54313X(469,296)22,67613318492,3788,843013,90316982,012358279972,651201,9671641,3632,3791913,8634,137X2,574372,2923,0288496,537X3,8597184,5421,2682,9191,113820223141(158,060)55(9,102)2662,3783,1886,3659,2045,4485,1843,55925,6302,743100(212,944)41,19117,58114,4684,432 38604 1 2(24) (D (1)X201 12 29 5,234 14 0 0 015 3 1 246340 1658 1 6 3,074 1,64243 1440 54 2,636 9422022 28471 259 130 7,7390 0 320 0 0 0 3,6860 0 0 0 X11,798X50278World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 18Table 18.4ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgium {b}BulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourg (b)MaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.RAverage Annual Net Trade in FoodAverage Annual Donations or Receipts of Food AidCerealsOilsPulsesCerealsOils Milk(000 metric tons)(metric tons)(metric tons)(000 metric tons) (kg per capita) (metric tons) (metric tons)1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1986-88 1986-8853,242 79,441 151,900 (142,557) (12,694) (91,634) 4,652 3,465 2 1 305,461 78,69288 256 2,167 4,233 (3,000) (8,000) 57 190 4 12 0069 74 1,519 6,548 1,728 4,673 0 0 0 0XX1,068 2,328 95,966 372,533 1,489 23,816 1,259 1,382 15 13 28,464 1173 19XX0 XX0 13 2 00 22 308 38054 78 77517613 800011,386 16,375 336,463 1,227,447 (26,804) (409,351) (28) 385 (0) 0 1,861 3,383244 435 8,359 12,112 689 1,036 17 1 27 1 0 109(59) 875 1,050,510 1,311,227 59,144 656,900 579 2211 0 97,682 31,2542,717 1,862 (361,558) (840,777) 976 40,002 847 256 6 1 572 4,2572,109 5,085 254,910 390,383 26,705 (2,418) 0 12 0 0X01,794 4,468319,959 23,350 74,505 40 201,698 1,87329,848 13,054 31,784 5214 06822,981 27,323447,520 185,182 177,653 (185)(2) (4)0467 77940,033 1,718 22,428 11455 8(85) 47313,35000 101 04,0312551335481,37897(539)(53)79329731581,5116811,182455(4,294)(1,239)1861,66341515131,858(25)(73)2,8112251,487(574(64(12,3624,0242,988453(505)253187,486X1313,4216096,7892,78744,888(990)1,2396,14961317,0519,459494645192,246(42,(249)40244(62,1,243984,5766168831,211(6,457)(127)403(174)936321(16,265)49(916)2,567907408(1,775)(35)(27,202)(1,045)2,295140(1,442)24(38)4,636X1423,7924802,9671,308(144)208(678)782135,90010,401383,56712,54211,811178,9543,870015,454(1,722,366)1,07116,08940565373,041(843,207)71164,21913,531(19,473)13,11221,85029,4818,7153,6522,9831071,494,7167,30779,03950,354(33,146)39,1261463,901297,578(71,263)102,091(29,070)(91,474)1,0136,117383,844X4,761159,0636,96068,06519,814(159,000)(191,772)38,00339,812Papua New Guinea121 215 (56,280)Solomon Islands6 17 (9,784)(2,885) 761,268(533) 1,95533,350 839,751OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew Zealand(11,423)(11,643)73(67)(14,911)(15,350,87(9)(350,086)(166,032)(10,271)(81,706)Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.Notes:297,20419,923050,833(4,870,759)1,24016,20015,21313,131981,872(832,933,4,325113,22886,058(833,26,0539,299380,53446,2031,62762,71716,668620,40313,70082,440(143,023)8,47833,09019,711(5,963)22,876(206,378)51,149(90,693)(271,777)1,98124,017395,186X5,533(2,334)9,46290,902(6,781)(13,133)(249,116)33,97230,205790,425(3,679)1,830,665(357,744)(89,238)4,495(93,856,(147,267,(14,717,4,6217,674019,58431,230X(36,796)(2,206)7,093(1,122)2,16384016,6919,3846,795(93,960)(176,976)(121,397)8,746441,5531,640536,267675,79454,125(7,409)1,097(3,016)3,9468,56179,5344,76711,128(44,780)3419,066119,953X914160,6085,9971,15210,08410,216027,00052,456X(43,398)(13,073)8,322136,83823,0552,13350,25912,56828,675(53,909)(199,556)(804,485)12,633(6,167)10,1842,3671,037,7872179,599345,556(2,216)(5,167)(158,833)2,509(608,287)674,9922,46323,935(208,756)28924,086351,868X1,286680,4944,781(122,032)553030940090324800(9)0390732(13)03452513(1,093) a00(48)0034(29(1491520000(4)(42)X1(98)(10)09,358042,969(3,733)57,205 128,522309002,1537,06811,59413,365(110)(32)38,128 (165,302, (70)50 86 08 10 010,641 (5,978,(49,640) (46,572) 0(24.666) (434,018) (261)5,741 (384,349) (270,3,137 5,971(34,247, (56,424, 0332(510)2500013483001705153200(97)0307517020809528(2,408) a0(21)(31,0(43(23(245(2520(8)00(4)(146)X0(137)(43)000(33(107(64(168)00150103400000420(1)02790(0)0748(2)00(5)00(7)(6)(3)(2 o>000(1)(1)X3(7)(2)00031800010450(7)018410011112(5)(8)(5)(4)(4)0(1)00(1)(3)X0(9)(10)000(1)(13)(10)3200(13)(5)0) ( 0 o>0 0(12) (14)(19) (22)2 16000 000a. Total includes EC community action, b. Data for Belgium and Luxembourg are combined under Belgium.World and regional totals for Net Trade include some countries not listed. Totals for Food Aid do not add because of rounding.Imports and food aid receipts are shown as positive numbers; exports and food aid donations are represented by negative numbers in parentheses.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.(355)(357)XX(267)787X0X354,3510374XXX02,930XX X03628 1,546 XX162,305 4,2681,083 20,885XX(100) (100)X0273 5,7011,165 1,5061,344 182195 0XX2,516 1,313350 4721,10843(85,323) i (113,201) aX(200)0XX(255) (142)(4,460) (2,159)X X(6,759) (2,818)0XX00XX(4,696)(841)2,5144400(19,612)(445)0XX(2,206)(2,127,00(83,0 41 XXXX(958)0XX(6,409)03,652503XX0(3,269)000(681)(331,11(361,XWorld Resources 1992-93279

18 Food and AgricultureTable 18.5 Flow of Cereal Aid from Major Donorsto Major Recipients, 1989Major RecipientsTOTAL% Triangular AidAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoCape VerdeChadCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEthiopiaGambia, TheGhanaGuineaKenyaLesothoLiberiaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNigerSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweLATIN AMERICABoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPeruASIAAfghanistanBangladeshCambodiaChinaIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepJordanLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaPakistanPhilippinesSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandViet NamYemenTotalCereal Aid(000metrictons)10,044124,7003979163349491519121,42757310464211234287621765702123742483533873198157611284175566101,98495151412842288919727719496736529132146TotalCanada USA Japan EC OthersPercent PercentAid (000 of of RecipmetricTotal ienfstons) Aid Total Aid1.170 100 127397 34 811 1 299 10 00 00 00 0000700011200000001590167000501101023517000061406261520130123013901000110062 564 516 17 101 004504020 20 026433 300 00120014 10 076 7210421 2 2214 1 990 0 012 1 951 0 10 0 032 0 30 12 0 10 0 00 0 05 0 711 1 305 0 00 160 0 03,235 678 58 21208 0 0 01,161 317 27 2711 0 0 0223 178 15 80308 15 1 569 7 1 1023 0 0 025 14 120 02 032010 0 055060416 78 7135 7 1195272 21 2 831 7 1 2383 0 0 0100 09 0 0(Arab Rep)411 22(People's Dem Rep) 43 21 2 4892 0 0 0Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.Total Percent PercentAid (000 of of RecipmetricTotal ient'stons) Aid Total Aid5,286 100 5302,286 43 490 0 013 0 167 0 4530 1 9131 1 62701901,22611261734751122042342211169592334341218102241197351901,775610140822278619427018145235429101071,21904140028661050910841102060002800000023200110001100310110000020100341000242450017502230800510000022400010130970861956378167337801952315271142764881797129364241642808964010029810096989897297797100074380360093890180291002081760006700Unspecified0Source:Notes: Totals do not add because of rounding. World and regional totals include countries not listed. 0For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.TotalPercent PercentAid (000 of of RedpmetricTotal ient'stons) Aid Total Aid441 100 454169 38 40 0 02 0 250 1 300 03 1 56 1 138 521 321650710031061021253394230001331012133084000114280000000000280000019306011000220300350006200050200120100000200003120570210002160000000000600000440142000501008000140001100034191291601139000164410000000000580000060592000930160080007500054TotalPercent PercentAid (000 of of RecipmetricTotal ient'stons) Aid Total Aid1,980 100 20321,270 64 2721 1 5553 3 6742 0 260 79 0 1821 1 446 0 400 01 01083135 7 9158 282 190 000373317 4901324294441625483624731243483213012671718090130000112516100017335800221043000352101682402418105153580002102512001220024010601105100000000001001229011020000010802111012zero or less than half the unit of measure.691425837411464212184444332270514102001123131500532318019019000132565040115772210113438TotalPercent PercentAid (000 of of RecipmetricTotal ient'stons) Aid Total Aid1,167 100 1217576620171510054237310005542581060411010520212263256100001000000100105564208149128023120051165039008749100011000520010000450000410002010100000000000000000001048181300100010041000801112163021431902441242110131855272027010121071016161821547560000010000001003131710013812071359101212203900187280World Resources 1992-93

Food and Agriculture 18Table 18.6 Climatic Classes and Soil Constraints in SelectedCountriesWORLDTotal LandArea {a)(000hectares)Percent of Total Land AreaArid Semi-arid Humid ColdLand with No Inherent Soil Constraints (b)Percent of Total Land Area(000 Percent Percent Percent Percent Subhectares)Arid Semi-arid Humid Cold Tropical tropical TemperatAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweCENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela3,011,330238,174124,67011,06256,67327,3802,56546,54040362,298125,92022334,15031,8002,31899,5452,805110,10025,7671,00023,00224,5862,81256,6973,0359,632175,95458,1549,408122,019102,52218544,63078,40982,329126,67091,0772,49519,2537,16262,734122,104237,6001,72088,6045,43915,53619,955226,76074,07238,667273,999432,2805,10611,0864,8382,07210,8432,75611,1891,083190,86911,8757,5995131,898,326273,669108,439845,65174,880103,87027,68419,68539,730128,00016,14717,48188,2054792400100762 38100100067380000 00 00 0100100000000711509850649405487886007093555507066000836000000000050000114060514500160098 443 581 8799015 84100990100271001001000016000001413018010044100100100100100156610008710015 215 1010921138014071311261501650241500001200120176000714193132130950031002382119210080100032347478100199510098515910010099100871009888100834410010010079416396169273100906610010087000000000000000002000554,86296,95815,7263604,7926,899661,9498480034,16043073075724,6332130,079035587804790 0060 7,34213480 54,0040 2,27301,0970 40,8650 58.8670130000000000000000000001010200000003511020290013000712,9684,952930841,3887,797912,9571874,5197,48250,3901785,0523194,3031,2105,0792,42695862,15941082638886693768623101,32016455,93070621179191,417111,78115,41517,0817,8365,3232,2399473,42715,2646986,1005,109789917072160156271916168941800 0 1000 2 98100 0 00 0 10081 1 1738 21 38000 0 00 1000 1000 00 010000 0 100100 0 0100 0 00 0 100001000007910001007081990707819400100984777060860001261000000000068000283421044121000440030110003008101071856020021887210980065600001700110286000141427822736091800710010006210010010011861094100711000341593741006921001002333100100100100811009989100722610010010054512992880521009136100100630 71020 990 10000 871000 1000 1000 1000 1000 840 1000 1000 1000 100030 1003 1000 1000 1000 1000000000000090000000020000000000000010100000004123025110020001001001001001000100100776010001005977100100100100100599141001000100100100100621001001001001001001001001001004810010010072097882100100100619410010010029 098 010 00130 000000160000970000000000100002340010004123000009518600100000038000000000052000248331266000396000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000416003300000000World Resources 1992-93281

18 Food and AgricultureTable 18.6 Climatic Classes and Soil Constraints (continued)ASIA, SOUTHEASTBangladeshBhutanCambodiaIndiaIndonesiaLao People's Dem RepMalaysiaMyanmarNepalPakistanPhilippinesSingaporeSri LankaThailandViet NamASIA, SOUTHWESTAfghanistanBahrainIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepTurkeyTotal Land Land with No Inherent Soil Constraints {b} Percent of Total Land AreaArea {a}Percent of Total Land Area(000 Percent Percent Percent PercentSubtropical(000 ha) Arid Semi-arid Humidhectares) Arid Semi-arid Humid Cold TropicalTemperat897,61510 6 78 5 62,495 4 10 72 14 76 24 013,3910 0 1004,70000 0 5117,6520 100297,31969181,1579923,08032,85565,75413,68077,08829,817616,47451,08932,536678,01765,20968163,60043,7372,0338,8931,7821,02321,2461,100214,96918,40676,9638,36019,50033,2971000000710 000 010 00 075 1587 9100 076 1773953 1185 7100002100 0100 097 249 340United Arab Emirates100510Yemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem)3893447Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.Notes:15000304Cold049061100 0100 096 167 333 22100 0100 099 00100100 010 03 10 07 018 036 09 00 098 000 000 016 049 00 0018001,71913369533,23210,550371963,4361,9175,2502,717062498398979,7506,2291214,7852,78312240131593,89729030,57964310,1353,7072,2073,870a. Regional totals differ from those in Table 17.1 because these include only the countries listed, b. No inherent soil constraints means soil that is not affectedby the following constraints: steep slopes, shallow soil, poor drainage, low nutrient retention, aluminum toxicity, acid soils, phospherous fixation, amorphous material,vertic properties, low potassium reserves, calcareous soil, soil salinity, excess sodium, acid sulfate soil, and gravel.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure. Totals may not add because of rounding.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.000400000180000073711006210065961000100100962010011900001600090130000019130280252000036870060101002110066991001009156410001001001007609010201000002930029007901410004464000001900000000000000010001006710010010083010100100100100100220020000000310091100100010003300017100900000076100100951001001001001001001006910082900000000000000000300200000000018000Sources and Technical NotesTable 18.1 Food and AgriculturalProduction, 1978-90Source: Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO), Agrostat PC(FAO, Rome, July 1991).Indexes of agricultural and food productionportray the disposable output (after deductionfor feed and seed) of a country's agriculturesector relative to the base period1979-81. For a given year and country, theindex is calculated as follows: the disposableaverage output of a commodity interms of weight or volume during the periodof interest is multiplied by the 1979-81average national producer price per unit.The product of this equation represents thetotal value of the commodity for that periodin terms of the 1979-81 price. The valuesof all crop and livestock products aretotaled to an aggregated value of agriculturalproduction in 1979-81 prices. Theratio of this aggregate for a given year tothat for 1979-81 is multiplied by 100 to obtainthe index number.The multiplication of disposable outputswith the 1979-81 unit value eliminates inflationaryor deflationary distortion. However,the base period's relative pricesamong the individual commodities are alsopreserved. Especially in economies withhigh inflation, price patterns among agriculturalcommodities can change dramaticallyover time. To overcome the latter problem,FAO generally shifts the base period everyfive years.The continental and world index numbersfor a given year are calculated by totalingthe disposable outputs of all relevantcountries for each agricultural commodity.Each of these aggregates is multiplied by arespective 1979-81 average "international"producer price and summed in a total agriculturaloutput value for that region or theworld in terms of 1979-81 prices. The totalagricultural output value for a given year isthen divided by the "international" 1979-81output value and multiplied by 100 to obtainthe continental and world index numbers.This method avoids distortion causedby the use of international exchange rates.The agricultural production index includesall crop and livestock products originatingin each country. The food productionindex covers all edible agriculturalproducts that contain nutrients. Coffee andtea have virtually no nutritive value andthus are excluded.Crop yields (average yields of cereals andaverage yields of roots and tubers) are calculatedfrom production and area data. Averageproduction of cereals includes cerealproduction for feed and seed. Area refers tothe area harvested. Cereals comprise all cerealsharvested for dry grain, exclusive ofcrops cut for hay or harvested green. Rootsand tubers cover all root crops grown principallyfor human consumption; root cropsgrown principally for feed are excluded.Most of the data in Tables 18.1-18.5 aresupplied by national agriculture ministriesin response to annual FAO questionnairesor are derived from decennial agriculturalcensuses. FAO compiles data from morethan 200 country reports and from manyother sources and enters them into a computerizeddata base. FAO fills gaps in the282World Resources 1992-93

data by preparing its own estimates. As betterinformation becomes available, FAO correctsits estimates and recalculates theentire time series when necessary.Table 18.2 Agricultural Inputs,1975-89Source: Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO), Agrostat PC(FAO, Rome, July 1991). Pesticide use:United Nations Industrial Development Organization(UNIDO) Industrial Statisticsand Sectoral Surveys Branch, Policy andPerspectives Division, pesticide data basespecifically prepared for UNIDO's studyGlobal Overview of the Pesticide Industry Sub-Sector, Sectoral Working Paper PPD.98,(UNIDO, Vienna, December 2,1988). Pesticideuse by Mauritius, Tanzania, Uganda:Environment Liaison Centre, Africa Seminaron the Use and Handling of Agricultural andOther Pest Control Chemicals (October 30 toNovember 4,1983, Nairobi, Kenya). Pesticideuse by Haiti: Data are 1972-74 pesticideimports; U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment (U.S. AID), Draft EnvironmentalProfile of Haiti (U.S. AID, Washington,D.C., 1979). Pesticide use by El Salvador(1975-77 data are for 1974-76; 1982-84 dataare for 1979) and by Suriname (1975-77data are for 1979-80; 1982-84 data are for1981): David K. Burton and Bernard J.R.Philogene, An Overview of Pesticide Usage inLatin America (Canadian Wildlife ServiceLatin American Program, Ottawa, undated).Pesticide use by Afghanistan (1975-77 data are for 1980; 1982-84 data are for1981-82) and by the Philippines (1975-77data are for 1980-81): Regional Network forthe Production, Marketing, and Control ofPesticides in Asia and the Pacific(RENPAP), formerly Regional Network forthe Production, Marketing, and Control ofPesticides in Asia and the Far East(RENPAF), RENPAF Gazette: Supply of Pesticidesin Nine Countries (RENPAF, Bangkok,July 1985) and RENPAP Gazette: PesticideData Collection System—Second Report(RENPAP, Bangkok, October 1988). Pesticideuse by Malaysia: Data are 1988 estimateby Malaysian AgrochemicalAssociation (MACA) provided by the Ministryof Science, Technology and Environment(Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 1989).Pesticide use by the Syrian Arab Republic(1982-84 data are for 1983-84): L'OfficeArabe de Presse et de Documentation, RapportEconomiaue Syrien 1983-84 (L'OfficeArabe de Presse et de Documentation, Damascus,1984). Pesticide use by Yemen(1975-77 data are for 1972-74; 1982-84 dataare for 1975-76): U.S. AID, Draft EnvironmentalReport on Yemen (U.S. AID, Washington,D.C., 1982). Pesticide use by Iceland:Nordic Council and the Nordic StatisticalSecretariat, Yearbook of Nordic Statistics 1985(Nordic Council and Nordic Statistical Secretariat,Oslo, 1986).Cropland refers to land under temporaryand permanent crops, temporary meadows,market and kitchen gardens, and temporarilyfallow land. Permanent cropland is landunder crops that do not need to be replantedafter each harvest, such as cocoa,coffee, rubber, fruit trees, and vines.Human population data used to calculatehectares per capita are for 1990. For trends incropland area, see Chapter 17, "Land Coverand Settlements," Table 17.1.Irrigated land as a percentage of croplandrefers to areas purposely provided withwater, including land flooded by riverwater for crop production or pasture improvement,whether this area is irrigatedseveral times or only once during the year.Average annual fertilizer use refers to applicationof nutrients in terms of nitrogen (N),phosphate (P2O5), and potash (K 2 O). Thefertilizer year is July 1-June 30; data refer tothe year beginning in July.Data on average annual pesticide use werecompiled by UNIDO. In their study,UNIDO assessed production, trade, anduse of pesticides for 119 countries and 14geographical subgroups. The calculationswere based on trade statistics of pesticidefinished products. These statistics were publishedby the United Nations Statistical Office(UNSO), and use and trade data werecompiled by FAO. For one third of thecountries, UNIDO had to estimate netweight of active ingredient in the pesticidesused, because country-level data were onlyquantified for finished products or notavailable at all. Time series were completedby interpolation and extrapolation or, insome cases, by an econometric need model.Parameters in this model included countryspecificfactors such as climatic zone, degreeof development of agriculture, areaunder crop production, crop structure, andthe frequency of pesticide applications. Foradditional information, refer to UNIDO'sGlobal Overview of the Pesticide Industry Sub-Sector.Data are expressed in net weight of activeingredients in the pesticides used. The activeingredients in a pesticide are the chemicalswith pesticidal properties. In a pesticideformulation, active ingredients areoften mixed with inert ingredients, whichdilute or deliver the active ingredients.Inert ingredients can exert toxic effects oftheir own in the environment.Active ingredients vary widely in potency;information on the ingredients of pesticidesis necessary to ensure accurateapplication and to minimize harmful environmentaleffects. For example, 1 metric tonof the modern synthetic pyrethroid insecticidepermethrin is as potent a pesticide as3-5 metric tons of a carbamate or an organophosphateor 10-30 metric tons of DDT.The data shown in this table do not describethe potency of the active ingredientsused. As a result, two countries with similarlevels of pesticide use may be treatingdifferent amounts of land and getting verydifferent results. Increasingly potent pesticideshave been developed in recent years;thus, a decline in the amount of active ingredientsused may not indicate a reduction inthe amount of toxic materials introducedinto the environment.For additional information on pesticides,see E.J. Tait and A.B. Lane, "Insecticide Production,Distribution and Use: AnalyzingNational and International Statistics" inFood and Agriculture 18Management of Pests and Pesticides: Farmers'Perceptions and Practices, Joyce Tait andBanpot Napompeth, eds. (Westview Press,Boulder, Colorado, 1987).Tractors generally refer to wheel andcrawler tractors used in agriculture. Gardentractors are excluded. Harvesters refer to harvestersand threshers.Table 18.3 Livestock Populationsand Grain Consumed asFeed,1978-90Sources: Livestock data: Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations(FAO), Agrostat PC (FAO, Rome, June1991). Feed data: Economic Research Service,United States Department of Agriculture(USDA), PS&D View PC (USDA,Washington, D.C., 1990).Data on livestock include all animals inthe country, regardless of place or purposeof their breeding. Data on livestock numbersare collected annually by FAO; estimatesare made by FAO for countries thateither do not report data or only partiallyreport data. Equines include horses, mules,and asses. FAO notes that the reportednumber of chickens in some countries doesnot seem accurate. For some countries, dataon chickens include all poultry.Grain fed to livestock as percentage of totalgrain consumption was calculated usingUSDA grain consumption and feed numbers.Grains include wheat, rice (milledweight), corn, barley, sorghum, millet, rye,oats, and mixed grains. Grain consumptionis the total domestic use during the localmarketing year of the individual country. Itis the sum of feed, food, seed, and industrialuses.Table 18.4 Food Trade and Aid,1977-89Sources: Trade and population data: Foodand Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations (FAO), Agrostat PC (FAO, Rome,July 1991). Food aid data: FAO, Pood Aid inFigures, No. 8/1 (FAO, Rome, 1990).Figures shown for food trade are net importsor exports: exports were subtractedfrom imports.Two definitions of trade are used by countriesreporting trade data. "Special trade"refers only to imports for domestic consumptionand exports of domestic goods."General trade" encompasses total importsand total exports, including reexports.Trade figures for Czechoslovakia, the GermanDemocratic Republic, Hungary, Poland,Romania, and the U.S.S.R. includegoods purchased by the country that are reexportedto a third country without ever enteringthe purchasing country. For informationon the definition used by a particularcountry, see FAO Trade Yearbook 1989(FAO, Rome, 1990).Average annual donations or receipts of foodaid are shown as either positive or negativenumbers: Receipts are shown as positivenumbers; donations are expressed in negativefigures. For some countries that areWorld Resources 1992-93283

18 Food and Agricultureboth recipients and donors of food aid, donationswere subtracted from receipts.Trade in cereals includes wheat andwheat flour, rice, barley, maize, rye, andoats. Trade in oils includes oils from soybeans,groundnuts (peanuts), olives, cottonseeds,sunflower seeds, rape/mustardseeds, linseeds, palms, coconuts, palm-kernels,castor beans, and maize, as well as animaloils, fats, and greases (including lard).Trade in pulses includes all kinds of dried leguminousvegetables, with the exception ofvetches and lupins.Food aid refers to the donation or concessionalsale of food commodities. Cereals includewheat, rice, coarse grains, bulgurwheat, wheat flour, and the cereal componentof blended foods. Cereal donations orreceipts (kilograms per capita) are the resultof dividing the three-year averages by therespective 1978 and 1988 populations. Oilsinclude vegetable oil and butter oil. Milk includesskimmed milk powder and otherdairy products (mainly cheese). Regional totalsinclude only countries listed and do notreflect donations by the Organization of PetroleumExporting Countries (OPEC) andthe World Food Program. European regionaltotals, however, include EuropeanCommunity donations as well.Food aid data are reported by donorcountries and international organizations.Table 18.5 Flow of Cereal Aidfrom Major Donors to Major Recipients,1989Source: Food and Agricultural Organizationof the United Nations (FAO), Food Aidin Figures, Volume 8/1 (FAO, Rome, 1990).Cereals include wheat, rice, coarse grains,bulgur wheat, wheat flour, and the cerealcomponent of blended foods. Major recipientsinclude countries that received 10,000tons of cereal aid or more. EC aid includesaid from the separate European Communitymember countries as well as communityaction. Other donors include Argentina,Australia, Austria, Finland, Norway,Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Switzerland, WorldFood Program purchases, and others.Triangular aid is a system of aid wherebydonors pay for food to be shipped to acountry in need from one of its neighbors.Cereal aid data are reported by donorcountries and international organizations.Table 18.6 Climatic Classesand Soil Constraints in SelectedCountriesSource: Food and Agricultural Organizationof the United Nations (FAO), unpublisheddata (FAO, Rome, 1991). Data weredeveloped by Jose Benites (Technical Officer,Soil Resources, Management and ConservationService, Land and Water DevelopmentDivision, FAO) and K. Groody(Consultant to FAO), based on a FertilityCapability Classification (FCC) system developedby P.A. Sanchez, W. Couto, andS.W. Buol (North Carolina State University,Raleigh, North Carolina).Climatic classes are calculated by lengthof growing period. Length of growing periodis defined as the number of days whenboth temperature and moisture permit cropgrowth. Days with mean temperaturesabove 5° C and with soil moisture resultingfrom rainfall at least equivalent to half potentialevapotranspiration are consideredfavorable to growth. A "normal" growingperiod includes a humid period, duringwhich precipitation exceeds full potentialevapotranspiration. Lengths of growing periodsare: arid in the range of 75 days orless; semi-arid in the range of 75 to 120 days;humid in the range of 180 to 365 days; cold -0 days (mean temperature is below 5° Cwhile moisture is available).Land with no inherent soil constraints includesland whose soil has no chemical andphysical constraints that will significantlyaffect agronomic management and agriculturalproductivity. The extent of land withno soil constraints is also an important indicatorof agricultural costs, the potential andsuccess of future expansion, and the comparativeadvantage of a nation's agriculturalproductivity.The FCC system groups soils accordingto their fertility and management of relevantchemical and physical properties. Itemphasizes quantifiable topsoil parametersas well as subsoil properties directly relevantto plant growth. The system interpretsthree categories: topsoil texture (sandy,loamy, clayey, or organic), subsoil texture(sandy, loamy, clayey, or rock or other hardroot-restricting layer), and 15 modifiers thatdescribe chemical and physical propertiesof the soils. In the past 10 years, the FCCsystem has proven a meaningful tool for describingfertility limitations on crop yields.The no-inherent-soil-constraints data inTable 18.6 are an addendum to the majorsoil constraints table that was published inWorld Resources 1990-91 (Table 18.5), althoughsome data adjustments have beenmade since then. The following 15 physicaland chemical soil constraints are absent insoils with no inherent constraints.Steep slopes are classified from steeply dissectedto mountainous. Dominant slopesare over 30 percent.Shallow soils are mostly lithosoils andother soils that restrict deep root penetrationor mechanized tillage. High priorityshould be given to erosion control wheresuch soils occur on steep slopes.Soils with poor drainage are mostly gleysoils (sticky, organic-rich soils) and othersoils saturated with water during part ofthe year or prone to waterlogging. Thesesoils require drainage to improve cropgrowth and generally provide a good soilfor rice production in tropical and subtropicalenvironments.Low nutrient retention occurs in soils witha low inherent fertility. In addition, leachingcauses high nutrient losses when limeor fertilizers are applied.Aluminum toxicity is prevalent mostly insoils of the subhumid and humid tropics.Limitations exist for growing commoncrops unless lime is applied. Even then, aluminumtoxicity in the subsoil may restrictroot development, affecting the use of soilmoisture by crops.Low to medium soil acidity may affectsensitive crops such as alfalfa or cotton, butacid soils that have a low percentage of aluminumsaturation can be very productivefor adapted crops, pastures, and trees.Soils with phosphorus fixation result incrop phosphorus deficiency. These soilscan produce a satisfying yield for subsistencefarmers; but when used for commercialagriculture, they require high levels ofphosphate applications and special managementpractices to increase productivity.Amorphous material usually occurs insoils of volcanic origin. High levels of phosphateand nitrogen fertilizers are requireddespite high content of organic nitrogen inthe soils.Vertic properties exist in soils with a highcontent of clay with shrinking and swellingproperties. Tillage is difficult when topsoilsare too dry or too moist. These soils can behighly productive, but only with improvedsoil tillage practices.Soils with low potassium reserves constraincrop growth because of potassium deficiency.This can be overcome by applicationof potassium fertilizers.Calcareous soils, although among the mostfertile, may develop micronutrient deficiencies.They also impose limitations onsources of phosphate.Soil salinity requires special managementand in some cases expensive and lengthytreatment to avoid damage to salt-sensitivecrops. Salt-tolerant species and cultivarsmay be grown when salinity is not excessive.Soils with excess sodium demand specialsoil management practices for alkalinesoils. Drainage and gypsum applicationcan help to reduce this constraint.Acid sulfate soils are usually water saturatedor flooded and may generate sulfuricacid when drained. This type of soil shouldbe kept saturated or should be reclaimedby shallow, intensive drainage and managedwith plants tolerant of high watertable or flooding.Soils with gravel (< 7.5 cm), stony phase,or rocks (> 7.5 cm) prevent mechanized agriculturaloperations and also present higherosion risk if occurring on steep slopes.To calculate the percent of land with no inherentsoil constraints within each climaticclass, the land area in the specific climaticclass that has no soil constraints was dividedby the total land area with no soilconstraints.The three temperature zone definitionscorrected to sea level, of each soil-plant nutrientand management constraint identifiedin this table include: tropics, where themonthly mean temperature is above 18 ° C;subtropics, where the monthly mean temperatureis below 18° C for one or moremonths; and temperate, where the monthlymean temperature is below 5° C for one ormore months.284World Resources 1992-93

19. Forestsand RangelandsSince the publication of World Resources 1990-91,which suggested an acceleration in the rate of deforestationin tropical countries, two interim reports havebeen published by the Forest Resources Assessment1990 Project of the Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO) confirming this trend.FAO's most recent preliminary estimate, presented atthe World Forestry Congress in September 1991, putthe world's average annual tropical deforestation rateduring 1981-90 at 16.9 million hectares. Comparedwith the previous 1980 Tropical Forest Resources Assessment,this is a 50 percent increase in the aggregateestimate for 76 tropical countries, which were identicalin both appraisals and hold about 97 percent of theworld's tropical forests.Table 19.1 presents the new FAO data for the worldand 12 tropical subregions. If these provisional deforestationestimates are confirmed by the final results ofthe 1990 assessment, they will indicate importantshifts in regional deforestation: in four subregions—Central Africa, Caribbean Subregion, ContinentalSouth East Asia, and Insular South East Asia— deforestationaccelerated faster than the global average; inthree subregions— Tropical Southern Africa, CentralAmerica and Mexico, and Tropical Latin America—deforestationincreased about 50 percent, comparable tothe world average; in five subregions, four in Africaand one in Asia, deforestation did not change significantlyfrom the 1980 assessment.Table 19.1 also lists recent country estimates, compiledin various years by various methods. In somecases, these estimates do not agree with the FAO data.The biggest discrepancy appears between the most recentcountry deforestation estimate for Brazil and theFAO aggregate for Tropical South America. The FAOestimate shows an increase in the amount of land deforestedfrom 4.6 million hectares per year during1981-85 to 6.8 million hectares per year during 1981-90. Yet Brazil reports a decline in the amount of landdeforested in its Legal Amazon (a political boundaryencompassing six states and territories and parts ofthree others). Since no recent deforestation studieshave been conducted outside the Legal Amazon, it isnot known whether this difference might be accountedfor by increasing deforestation elsewhere or whetherone of the estimates is inaccurate. A reconciliation ofthese data can only come with the final results fromthe 1990 assessment. They are expected to be publishedby mid-1992, with estimates of the forest areaand the rates of deforestation at global, subregional,and country levels.By mid-1992, the Agriculture and Timber Division ofFAO and the United Nations Economic Commissionfor Europe (UNECE) in Geneva will release the final resultsof their assessment of forests in the temperatezone. It is believed that the temperate forest area hasincreased by 5 percent during 1981-90. Some of this increaseis the result of afforestation and recolonizationof nonforest land, but in some cases, it may be a statisticalincrease from improved survey coverage, for exampleof the boreal forests in the Soviet Union.Wood is still the primary product removed from theworld's forests and woodlands. Table 19.2 shows thatin Africa, South America, and Asia, most wood is usedfor fuel, whereas in North America, Europe, Oceania,and the U.S.S.R., it is produced for industrial use. Thisdifference can also be observed for the top six roundwoodproducers: the United States, the U.S.S.R., China,India, Brazil, and Canada, which together removeroughly half of the world's timber from their own territory.Canada, the United States, and the U.S.S.R. harvestmost of their wood for industrial purposes andwere net exporters of roundwood in 1987-89. China,Brazil and India, each cutting roughly the same quantitiesof roundwood as Western Europe, used most oftheir wood for fuel.The production of processed wood—sawnwood andpanels—is concentrated in developed countries and inthe wood-rich and most industrialized developingcountries. For example, during the past decade, productionof panels grew most in China, India, and Brazil. In1987-89, Indonesia was the largest producer of woodbasedpanels in the developing countries, following theUnited States, the U.S.S.R., Japan, and the Federal Republicof Germany among the developed countries.Data on the impact of human use of land resourceshave been lacking. A 1991 study by the United NationsEnvironment Programme and the International SoilReference and Information Centre found that the soilsof 17 percent of the earth's vegetated land are degraded,as a result of vegetation removal, overgrazing,poor agricultural practices, and contamination by industrialchemicals. Table 19.3 presents data on soil degradationby severity and degradation type for sixregions, and Table 19.4 specifies the causes of humaninducedsoil degradation.World Resources 1992-93285

19 Forests and RangelandsTable 19.1 Forest ResourcesWORLDExtent of Forest and Woodland 1980 (000 ha)OtherNatural Forest Planta- WoodedClosed Open tion Area2,822,560 742,148 28,830 1,695,017Average Annual Deforestation1981-85Most RecentClosed Forest Total Forest Estimate {a}Extent ExtentYear Extent(000 ha) (%) (000 ha) (%) of Data (000 ha)7,501 0.3 11.502 0.3 1981-90 b 16,900AverageAnnualReforestation1981-85(000 ha)10,538ManagedClosedForest1980(000 ha)968,444ProtectedClosedForest1980(000 ha)118,019AFRICA222,278483,9112,971629,9001,3390.63,7720.51981-90c5,0002962,3279,635North Africa3,371 2,119 1,062 3,7750 0.0 58 1.1X X101 584 15Algeria1,518 249 431 2,168 40 2.352 XEgyptX X 40 XX X2XXLibya134 56 143 446X X31Morocco1,533 1,703 321 1,161 13 0.4133 421Tunisia186 111 127 X 5 1.7163West Sahelian Africa 2,345 39,609 47 51,123 25 1.1 388 0.9 1981-90 d 400 10 63Burkina Faso271 4,464 12 9,360 3 1.1 80 1.7 XCape VerdeX X 43105091X X X XX0XXXXXChad500 13,00010,550X X 805 0.6Gambia, The65 1505602 3.42.4Guinea-Bissau660 1,44557717 2.6 57 2.7Mali500 6,75015,100 X X 36 0.5Mauritania29 5253,980 1 2.4 13 2.4Niger100 2,4507,880 3 2.5 67 2.6Senegal220 10,825 13 3,115 X X 50 0.563East Sahelian Africa 8,412 83,883 524 226,799 45 0.5 695 0.8 1981-90 700 37 560 628Djibouti2 6844 X X X XXX XEthiopia4,350 22,80035,300 8 0.2 88 0.310X XKenya1,105 1,255 181 38,105 19 1.7 39 1.710 70X 570Somalia1,540 7,510 11 53,050 4 0.2 14 0.11XXSudan650 47,000 188 98,600 4 0.6 504 1.113 50Uganda765 5,250 46 1,700 10 1.3 50 0.82 440 58West Africa 17,267 36,306 327 104,690 703 4.1 1,199 2.2 1981-90 1,200 36 1,168 1,045BeninCote d'lvoireGhanaGuineaLiberiaNigeriaSierra LeoneTogo474,4581,7182,0502,0005,9507403043,8205,3766,9758,600408,8001,3151,38019 6,83245 15,39075 9,4802 9,9006 5,640163 49,4506 4,27811 3,7201 2.6290 6.522 1.336 1.846 2.3300 5.06 0.82 0.767 1.7510 5.272 0.886 0.846 2.3400 2.76 0.312 0.7X XX1981-85 260 6202XXXXXX XXXXXX2600X11,167XX0XXX6483970XXXXCentral Africa 170,395 111,915 76 71,575 307 0.2 575 0.2 1981-90 1,500 5,830Cameroon17,920 7,700 18 15,600 80 0.4 110 0.4 1976-86 190 XCentral African Rep3,590 32,300 0 21,100 5 0.1 55 0.2 XXXXX XXXXX XCongo21,340 XX 17 2,500 22 0.1 22 0.1130Equatorial Guinea1,295X 1,175 3 0.2 3 0.2XXGabon20,500 75 19 1,50015 0.1 15 0.1Zaire105,750 71,840 22 29,700 182 0.2 370 0.25,700Tropical Southern Africa 8,818 207,109 556 161,574 108 1.2 700 0.3 1981-90 1,100 834AngolaBotswanaBurundiMalawiMozambiqueNamibiaRwandaTanzaniaZambiaZimbabweTemperate Southern AfricaSouth AfricaSwazilandInsular AfricaComorosMadagascarMauritiusTHE AMERICASTemperate North AmericaCanadaUnited StatesCentral America and MexicoCosta RicaEl SalvadorGuatemalaHondurasMexicoNicaraguaPanamaWorld Resources 1992-932,900X27186935X1201,4403,0102001,3511,347410,3191610,30031,212,849490,554264,100226,45464,9291,6381414,4423,79746,2504,4964,16550,70032,560144,08514,50018,42011040,60026,50019,62070X702,900X2,900X207,172XXX157X1980250299838110102X1022770266116,175XXX28,40020,0002438042,70037,64515517,90010,8003,5702,8032,803X7,561297,50032590,871243,922172,30071,6222,560 183 91,524160 3 240X 1 315100 15 1,865200 X 1,9002,100 159 85,500XX 14 1,58012444 1.5X X1 2.6X X10 1.1X X3 2.610 0.740 1.30 XX XX XX X151115004,339XXX1.53.11.53.30.4XXX1,002 1.565 4.05 3.290 2.090 2.3595 1.3121 2.736 0.994 0.220 0.11 2.7150 3.5120 0.830 0.25 2.2130 0.370 0.280 0.4X XX0157115605,702XXXXX1.23.11.23.30.4XXX1,022 1.565 3.65 3.290 2.090 2.3615 1.3121 2.736 0.9XXX1981-90 eXXXXXX1977-871981-90XXX200XXXXXX1591,400686351201203,1482,4957201,775321973-89 42 0 XXXX XXX08XXX58X1981-83 1,000 2210XX XXXX1714625X16410220X10 29010 290X XX 930X930X102,884 53,573102,362 36,068X 4,870102,362 31,198308 742320X62X360250 XXXCaribbean Subregion 37,066 482 205 3,055 25 0.1 26 0.1 1981-90 f 200 13 214 594Belize1,354 92 3 574 9 0.7 9 0.60X XCuba1,455 XX 157 1,005 2 0.2 2 0.111 200 XXDominican Rep629611 3210.6 4 0.61 XXXXXGuyana18,475 220 3150.0 3 0.0012X2Haiti48 XX963.8 2 3.70Jamaica67138 3863.0 2 3.01Suriname14,830 170 2950.0 3 0.00580Trinidad and Tobago208 X 16 63 0.4 1 0.41 14 XNontropical South America52,540 X 1,557 25,170X X 50 0.1 X X119X 3,439Argentina44,500600 16,500X X 1980-89 105 402,594Chile7,550817 8,55050 0.7 XX XX 745 845Uruguay490140 120X X X286XXXXXXIxxxXXXXXX

Forests and Rangelands 19Table 19.1X 189,700X XX739,900Average Annual DeforestationExtent of Forest and Woodland 1980 (000 ha) 1981-85Most Recent Average Managed ProtectedOther Closed Forest Total Forest Estimate {a}Annual Closed ClosedNatural Forest Planta- Wooded Extent ExtentYoar ExtentReforestation Forest Forest1981-85 1980 1980Closed Open tion Area (000 ha) (%) (000 ha) (%) of Data (000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha)Tropical South America 567,760 204,130 4,230 227,200 3,312 0.6 4,604 0.6 1981-90 6,800 489 12,730Bolivia44,010 22,750 26 12,05087 0.2 117 0.2X X1XBrazil357,480 157,000 3,855 161,820 1,480 0.4 2,530 0.5 1989-90 g 1,380449 4,660Colombia46,400 5,300 95 14,400 820 1.8 890 1.7X X 84162,280Ecuador14,250 480 43 3,470 340 2.4 340 2.3X X350Paraguay4,070 15,640 3 12,730 190 4.7 212 1.1 1989-90 450 90Peru69,680 960 84 8,660 270 0.4 270 0.4XX XX850Venezuela31,870 2,000 124 14,070 125 0.4 245 0.719 4,500ASIA424,713 47,103 19,605 176,994 1,799 0.4 2,003 0.4 1981-90 h 3,6001,408 48,705 25,050Temperate and Middle East Asia 153,755 20,100 14,515 70,040X X 20 0.0X X972 9,625 7,523Afghanistan 810 400 11 690 XX XX X XX 100 XChina 97,847 17,200 12,733 27,730 XX XX X X378 X 1,635Cyprus 153 X X 40 XX XX X XXXX2 153 28Iran, Islamic Rep 2,750 1,000 43 14,250 XX 20 0.5 X X400 120Iraq 70 1,160 20 300 XX XX X XXX2Israel 75 XX 34 XX XX X X56XXXXXXXJapan 23,889 X X 1,309 XX XX X X240 490Jordan X 50 21 75 XX XX X X3XXKorea, Dem People's Rep 4,800 X X 4,200 XX XX X X200Korea, Rep 4,887 X 1,628 X XX XX X X67XXXX437Lebanon X 20 18 45 XX XX X XXMongolia 9,528 X X 4,335 XX XX X X4,672Saudi Arabia 30 170 1 1,400 XX XX X XXXSyrian Arab Rep 60 90 40 239 XX XX X X60Turkey 8,856 X X 11,343 XX XX X X82 8,856 139Yemen (Arab Rep) X 10 0 1,590 XX XX X XXX XX XX(People's Dem Rep) X X 0 2,460 XX XX X XSouth Asia 60,653 5,908 2,494 17,906 305 0.5 307 0.5 1981-90 400 179 33,122 7,369Bangladesh927 X 128 315 8 0.9 8 0.9 X X 17 795 52Bhutan2,100 40 7 2301 0.1 1 0.1X X10 XIndia51,841 5,393 2,068 14,848 147 0.3 147 0.3 1983-87 48XXX138 31,917 6,779Nepal1,941 180 19 34084 4.3 84 4.0XXX 47X 330Pakistan2,185 295 160 1,1057 0.3 9 0.4410 15Sri Lanka1,659X 112 1,06858 3.5 58 3.513 X 193Continental South East Asia65,904 16,095 352 39,440 547 0.8 709 0.8 1981-90 1,40055 3,419 3,079Cambodia7,548 5,100 7 62525 0.3 30 0.2X X 0 XXLao People's Dem Rep8,410 5,215 11 5,735 100 1.2 130 1.0X X1 XXMyanmar31,941 X 16 20,700 105 0.3 105 0.3 1984 6000 3,419 299Thailand9,235 6,440 114 1,300 252 2.7 379 2.4 1985-88 23524XX 2,220Viet Nam8,770 1,340 204 11,08065 0.7 65 0.6 1985 20029560Insular South East Asia144,401 3,000 2,244 49,608 947 0.7 967 0.7 1981-90 1,800201 2,539 7,079Indonesia113,895 3,000 1,918 41,260 600 0.5 620 0.5 1982-90 1,00013140 5,430Malaysia20,996 XXX 26 4,825 255 1.2 255 1.2 1979-89 27020 2,499 959Philippines9,510 300 3,520 92 1.0 92 1.0 1980-87 150 50 XX 690SingaporeXX 3X X X X X X XXEUROPE136,652 X X 41,688X X X XX X1,031 74,628 1,752Albania930 X X 312 X X X XXXXAustria3,754 X X 0X X X X21 1,489XBelgium600 X X 160X X X X19 272XBulgaria3,400 X XX 400XXX X X X 50 3,600 100Czechoslovakia4,435 X143X X XX 37 4,435XDenmark466 X X 18X XX 330 56Finland19,885 X X 3,340X X X X158 10,578 294France13,875 X X 1,200X X X X51 2,957 92Germany (Fed Rep)6,989 X X 218X X X X62 3,886X(Dem Rep)2,700 X X 255X X X XXX 2,697 85Greece2,512 X X 3,242X X X X1,603 75Hungary1,612 X X 37X X X X19X9 1,612 41IcelandX X X 100X X X XXX0Ireland347 X X 33X X X X298Italy6,363 X XX 1,700 X X X X15 699 162Luxembourg82 X0X X X XX2 3800Netherlands294 X X 61X X X X225Norway7,635 X X 1,066X X X X79 1,130 60Poland8,588 X X 138X X X X106 8,099 103Portugal2,627 X X 349X X X X4XX7XRomania6,190 X X 150X X X X5,940Spain6,906 X XX 23,584X X X X 92 2,007 40Sweden24,400 X3,442X X X X 207 14,301 230Switzerland935 X X 189X X X X 7 62770United Kingdom2,027 XX XX 151X X X XX 40 1,505Yugoslavia9,1001,400X X X53 6,300 400U.S.S.R.739,900 XXX X4,54020,000Australia41,658 X X 64,242 X X X X62 3,817Fiji-8110 4062 0.2 2 0.2 7XNew Zealand7,046 X X 46X X X X43 4,137Papua New Guinea34,230 3,945 22 1,53022 0.1 23 0.120 55XSolomon Islands2,423 17 17 40 1 0.0 1 0.0OCEANIA86,168 3,962 79 65,86425 0.0 26 0.0X X1150 8,009Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, and other sources.Notes: a. Deforestation estimates are for total forest area, unless otherwise noted. World and subregional totals are provisional estimates for tropical countries; numbers arerounded to the nearest 100,000 hectares; data are not directly comparable to 1981-85 rates because only a limited number of countries are included. Country estimatesin this column are from many dates and have differing reliability and thus are not necessarily comparable; country deforestation estimates are to be taken purely asindicator of order of magnitude, b. 87 tropical countries, c. 40 tropical countries, d. Only 8 countries of subregion. e. Only one country of subregion.f. 18 tropical countries, g. Legal Amazon only. h. 15 tropical countries.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X - not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.xxxxxxxxxxXoXXXWorld Resources 1992-93287

19 Forests and RangelandsTable 19.2 Wood Production and Trade, 1977-89WORLDRoundwood ProductionProcessed Wood ProductionTotal Fuel and Charcoal Industrial Roundwood Sawnwood Panels Paper Production(000 Percent (000 Percent (000 Percent (000 Percent (000 Percent (000 Percentcubic Change cubic Change cubic Change cubic Change cubic Change metric Changemeters) Since meters) Since meters) Since meters) Since meters) Since tons) Since1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-793,425,613 23 1,760,475 28 1,665,139 17 504,256 10 125,985 21 223,012 39Average AnnualNet Trade inRoundwood {a}(000 cubicmeters)1977-79 1987-89AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela485,487 34 429,829 362,066 35 1,816 365,262 26 4,217 314,845 35 4,591 351,276 43 1,197 428,300 29 7,925 293,969 31 3,921 3112,615 31 9,886 31X XX X3,449 19 3,055 293,837 26 3,294 26X XX X3,119 59 1,729 3112,799 10 9,437 520 X0 X2,210 31 2,108 31607 46 447 105,359 32 5,016 3212 33 7 4038,859 21 37,100 213,618 24 2,396 49912 7 891 617,006 56 15,905 714,560 25 3,924 26565 6 422 234,206 46 32,495 47579 32 579 325,825 31 4,736640 4 5363017,637 31 6,830 367,366 36 7,016 37322,00816,001X4,287104,9265,8424,2862,9416,75719,24621,5842,22331,966840(27)3231X3341142523471436(6)46333,088 3013,880 4034,255 3612,030 437,755 32769,323 30X X188 71178,0103,9531493,210 2198264 (24)4,341106167,392 265,628 195,948 27218 36122,303 253,871 272,047 24531,022 36330,453 3110,8191,514251,12516,72718,1639,5392288,4018,7602063,2931,42591433341646404817(38)1721201,34315,022X4,02397,0585,6023,6972,8016,6697,07819,55456030,019662(14)3633X3340122426470361044342,947 2912,080 4031,540 3711,424 446,226 31171,189 89X X126 646,834 662,815 332,617 2197622 384,234106157,278 335,389 205,015 4113 8614,878 272,991 381,708 8116,268 137229,847 234,3321,266179,1166,43515,4906,544195,2137,590183,036722(25)3125182439512630(43)243355,657 19 8,71« 38 1,891 46 2,427250 32 13 0 50 0 1201,045 85 (88)2 (74) 15254 35 1101 22 0 X079 44X 0 X0375 2800 X048 433 2000 X02,730 31 652 58 80 105X XX XX X394 (24) 52 (40)4 (20)542 261 00 XX00X XX XX XX1,390 118 54 12 56 (26)03,362 (38) 775 15 260 13300 X0 X0 X0103 320 X 74 66 160160 1,614 51 993 10 2,9001,759 26 39 (46) 15 101,222 (6) 126 17 228 7501000342 32 120 106 0 XX 05 25 X 0 0351 19 31 (27)6 1321 1101 00 X01,101 (31) 482 10 60 (11)0636 18 90 00 (100)0143 19 16 00 X01,711 23 189 25 45 172 990 X0 X0 X1,089 33 411 1295 (44)104 26 31 120 X006807 0 234 06 467713665979X2647,8682405891408812,1682,0301,6631,9471781411,8002,7156061,530598,134X62171,1761,138594(38)259X33488732(18)282335(10)8730503634383619X8813(24)226 64107 29114 (71)239 0933 (17)205 4097,425 23880 0339 48442 (38)414,754 22100,606 516,48724872,00910,2922,6732,9952093,1881,17018825770356(31)5947(14)6439106(28)(37)(31)1147238X02,712131112141,827131361565142612168185170,866X1460,8145111210528314456382,4102222021106,08626,4361,4469518,1402,7027211,346578915716357329(19(59XX7055032014260023320(37) 0018(727780378104612220X(18)39(12)16X49(70)0(27)468(45)7(34)123780(44)3664(24)65(9)12014(15)(45)(6)1398281309335382841,302X06,57255137X61113XX102500XX(33)10(40)11839X17223310992(11)10XX30(18)2,1890 X0 X6 (42)0 X9 (32)1 (75)722 794 (64)12 (18)0 X33,783 64,028 3435642,83226511313701054391015413(76)291823114X253(27)(61)(33)8901092X08100001,614100280712238288,639X016,417161521017170033,10806516315XXXX0XXXXXXX32X25XXXXX71XX2067X(6,107)6300X0X(631)X(121)XX(165)(3,043)X86(6)0(1,565)X(321)00(52)0(348)XXX430XX419XXXX5543XXX2405000X7427XX2778112111(1)0XX2226(8)XX(5)X2712(117)X(232)(5)X400(49)41(19,561)2(2)98(1)3(4,128)21000X0X(479)X(32)XX(803)(572)X200(1200(1,018)X(286)(8)0033(544)30(2)0XX1471(3)XX(15)X2500(899)X(198)0X270(135)0(9)(23,934)1(8(1,220(211612522 20 297X10X1302111 0 4196 X1 X(35)(10)X 6 0X(61)(22)5(21)168,878 25 (19,662) (22,730)7,646 67 (729) (3,832)97324,734445497350112430706354810083546315X5242X64307(1)(86)(598)(5)0(30)(1)1(15)826202(3,814)00(22)00(9)012288World Resources 1992-93

Forests and Rangelands 19Table 19.2Roundwood ProductionProcessed Wood ProductionTotal Fuel and Charcoal Industrial Roundwood Sawnwood Panels Paper Production(000 Percent (000 Percent (000 Percentcubic Change cubic Change cubic Changemeters) Since meters) Since meters) Since1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79(000 Percent (000 Percent (000 Percentcubic Change cubic Change metric Changemeters) Since meters) Since tons) Since1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79 1987-89 1977-79Average AnnualNet Trade inRoundwood (a)(000 cubicmeters)1977-79 1987-89ASIA 1,053,425 21 781,840 21 271,586 21 105,538 15 26,641 44 47,390 82 37,628 52,132Afghanistan5.939 (5) 4,464 (6) 1,475 3 400 00 0 X X XBahrainX X X XX XX XXX X 14 36Bangladesh29,374 30 28,509 31 864 (3) 79 (54)(75, 102 60XX X XBhutan3,224 6 2,946 7 278 (3)5 50 00 (5) (7)Cambodia5,677 20 5,110 22 567 2 43 0 0(6) 0ChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgium (b)BulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourg {c}MaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.275,72377264,421173,5806,81514711831,85584,7056,848X3,88149147,6912,39021,03817,389X23,64638,158XXX8,8794838,23915,957X26,626X314359,0182,33014,8264,1644,44918,1442,13944,12943,35632,94810,8003,2676,653 X1,3509,009XX1,20110,97323,2139,83320,05616,13154,3014,5985,97415,175388,53324(32)25252210(5)1913(25)X2523302728X4511XXX183317(27)X23X3112010572(1)1313147202912X22222XX3137812(1)339115187177,61022240,193133,9712,439971157444,1054,489X3,5724708,0701,35017,05016,829X22.47432,147XXX8,1991533,6249,976X23,253X31455,3061,6081,4135611,7951,4614513,24310,4343,6566352,3202,972 X494,369XX1119243,2545983,8162,3204,4248611933,83783,73319(24)24216370(9)4416(34)X2322602329X4331XXX18M\21(31)X25X311302611892(23)327(31)017223220X12139XX8679976(20)6130203876OCEANIAAustralia39,37520,13625328,7322,88427108Fiji310 66 37 118New Zealand10,048 9 50 (73)Papua New GuineaSolomon Islands8,23143929215,533134839Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.Notes:98,1135524,22839,6084,3765010731,28146002,359X3092139,6211,0403,989560X1.1716,011XXX680344,6155,981X3,372X0303,71272213,4133,6032,65416,6831,68840,88632,92229,29210,1659473,681 X1,3014,640XX1,09010,04919,9599,23516,23913,81149,8773,7375,78011,338304,80030,64417,2522739,9982,69830632(34)3342000(5)002X557350490X123(39)XXX2462(10)(19)X8XX120950(22)2(6)191952025,8615717,46010,1181638030,28002804,058X16287,074470380220X4781,072XX2062091,1394,923X354X085,4232006,4471,0211,4105,3018617,75610,20510,5172,51323 3986X 1,240 X228 3199 1,999X XXX27 40734 2,4041 5,66135(26)9319100X(24)X028X(66)(16)200(20)0X1.085(35)XX(46)(42)125(30)18X(40)XX(1)0337(11)147(5)818(3)(1)X171(10)XX4511(29)12 1,7025 2,822(17)(38)14 14 1129 2,598 38 11,426 39 1,681 55187242461111141,9784,558101,6675,6123,390951,9631171711(3)4358(15)3,626234427,6935431489,360001,444X9461,5214150X87543XX4891027252781X40X036,122121,5122,1675201,4373321,4342,8137,7681,199399390X2373,852XX906352,0869151,3792,0651,3247651,5321,26014,34788X981,635(65)507(6)XX(41)X800066025XX113(21)XX(34)(30)508251X58XX1102024(3)33(17)(4)(5)618257X14,159 1680 X1,930 91920 52278 128 0170 5024,657 4811 7880 03,613 165X X0 X39 (14)70 102082X131328XX102716500413X57X063,941192,600X4571,2833268,4726,21610,5911,351(52) 2,39914 1.6834 1,411281520X14147XX325,316XX595 96190 (22)(100)69300128 679(15) 81816 3,368(35) 8,11110 1,207129 4,3187 1,34740 10,5471,654 51 2,4221,024 36 1,72916 600X(17)0X156(1)7,7853(39)(20,378)1515016957,6512218,7679(11)31(16,749)0(94)(132)063(1,989)X 10X 14467 1,48525 0433 4274 (60)18 16X X10 24X XX (0)35 16,618142 X76 2,075X 2,5299 30312 (2,903)23 (487)64 3,04625 (220)52 1,11013 54117 36020 919X 10(70) (83)14 5,820X XX 143 51732 6048 (836)48 (312)4 (26)47 1,14643 1,72546 (26)3 40544 401a. Imports of roundwood are shown as positive numbers; exports are represented by negative numbers, b. Data are for Belgium and Luxembourg, c. Included underBelgium.World and regional totals include countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.172837X9XX(17,781)13,45618859(1,099)117121351,41517717,08854(34)16(21,482)0(498)02434(198)36221(68)(33)18423742X41X419,031X3,8722,326131(725)(540)5,098(3,997)(1,203)(94)242(342)2(307)5,617X02721,240(829)(81)(59)9687,2361462039(19,407)(7.155) (11,232)(4,775) (7,531)0 (127)(1,522) (1,772)(601) (1,503)(259) (276)World Resources 1992-93289

19 Forests and RangelandsTable 19.3 Human-Induced Soil Degradation, 1945 to Late 1980sWORLDLight DegradationModerate DegradationStrong DegradationExtreme DegradationAFRICALight DegradationModerate DegradationStrong DegradationExtreme DegradationNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICALight DegradationModerate DegradationStrong DegradationExtreme DegradationSOUTH AMERICALight DegradationModerate DegradationStrong DegradationExtreme DegradationASIA(b)Light DegradationModerate DegradationStrong DegradationExtreme DegradationEUROPE {b}Light DegradationModerate DegradationStrong DegradationExtreme DegradationOCEANIALight DegradationModerate DegradationStrong DegradationExtreme DegradationSources:Notes:DegradedTotal Area as a Water Erosion Wind ErosionDegraded Percentage Asa AsaArea of all Total Percentage Types (million hectares) Total Percentage Types (million hectares)(million Vegetated (million of Degraded Topsoil Terrain (million of Degraded Topsoil Terrainhectares) Land {a} hectares) Area Loss Deformation hectares) Area Loss Deformation Overblowing1,964.4 1756173.3 548.32882.5 11.6749.0 6 343.217 301.2 42.0 268.614 230.5 38.10.0910.5 8 526.727 454.5 72.2 253.613 213.5 30.0 10.1295.7 3 217.2110 161.2 56.0 24.310 9.4 14.40.59.3 0 6.63.82.81.90.9 0.01.0494.2 22 227.446 204.9 22.5 186.538 170.7 14.31.5173.6 8 57.512 53.93.6 88.318 79.1 9.20.0191.8 9 67.414 60.56.9 89.318 84.2 5.10.0123.6 6 98.320 86.6 11.77.920 7.4 0.00.55.2 0 4.21 3.80.41.00.0 0.01.0158.1 8 106.167 80.9 25.2 39.225 37.5 1.70.018.9 1 14.59 14.20.22.62 2.5 0.10.0112.5 5 68.243 60.18.1 34.922 33.3 1.60.026.7 10 23.4150 6.5 16.91.710 1.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 0.00.0243.4 14 123.251 95.1 28.1 41.917 22.7 18.40.8104.8113.525.00.0748.0294.5344.3107.70.5218.960.6144.410.73.1102.996.63.91.90.41,093.76 45.97 65.110 12.10.020 440.68 124.59 241.73 73.40 0.023 114.56 21.415 81.010 9.82.413 82.812 79.4000 3.20.20.0920.319 34.927 51.950 8.30.059 365.217 99.832 215.0100 50.50.052 92.810 18.937 64.74 9.21 0.081 81.77730079.42.20.10.011.013.23.80.074.424.726.722.90.021.82.516.30.62.41.10.01.00.10.025.816.10.00.0222.2132.475.114.50.242.23.238.20.00.716.416.30.00.10.0United Nations Environment Programme and International Soil Reference and Information Centre.a. Vegetated land is the total of agricultural land and vegetated natural areas.b. U.S.S.R. east of the Ural Mountains is included under Europe. U.S.S.R. west of the Ural Mountains is included under Asia.Land surface covered encompasses area between latitudes 72 degrees north and 57 degrees south.Totals may not add because of rounding.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.454.211 12.7700 10.00.00.030 165.818 116.710 48.920 0.00.219 42.21 3.217 38.200 0.00.716 16.416 16.3000 0.00.10.013.15.30.00.047.515.717.314.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.0oooo0.00.80.00.08.90.08.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Table 19.4 Causes of Human-Induced Soil DegradationUndegraded Area (million hectares)PermanentVegetationRemoval Overexploitation OvergrazingDegraded AgricultureTotal Asa Total Asa Total AsaArea (a) andNon- Area % of Area %of Area %of(million Stabilized Natural vegetated (million Degraded (million Degraded (million Degradedhectares) Terrain Area Land hectares) Area hectares) Area hectares) AreaWorld1,964 6,092 3,486 1,469 5797 679 35Asia (b)748 1,692 1,329 485 298 40 46 6 197 26Europe (b)219624 1061 84 38 1 0 50 23Oceania103441 243 95 12 12 0 0 83 80Africa494 1,305 435 732 67 14 63 13 243 49North & Central America 158886 1,019 128 18 11 11 7 38 24South America243 1,143 354 28 100 41 12 5 68 28Sources: United Nations Environment Programme and International Soil Reference and Information Centre.Notes: a. Refers to area degraded between 1945 and late 1980s.b. U.S.S.R. east of the Ural Mountains is included under Europe. U.S.S.R. west of the Ural Mountains is included under Asia.Land surface covered encompasses area between latitudes 72 degrees north and 57 degrees south.Totals may not add because of rounding.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.AgriculturalActivitiesTotal AsaArea % of(million Degradedhectares) AreaIndustrial andBioindustrialTotalArea(millionhectares)552 28 23121 24 091 57 064 26 01204 2764 29 218 8 0Asa%ofDegradedArea1000090290World Resources 1962-93

Forests and Rangelands 19Table 19.3Total(millionhectares)239.193.0103.341.90.861.526.027.08.60.07.00.55.70.80.070.326.331.412.60.073.231.821.519.50.425.88.117.10.60.01.30.20.70.00.4AsaPercentageof DegradedArea125520125520404102911135010433012480010100Chemical DegradationNutrientTypes (million hectares)Loss Salinization Pollution Acidification135.3 76.3 21.85.752.463.119.80.045.120.418.86.20.04.20.14.00.10.068.224.531.112.60.014.64.69.01.00.03.22.90.30.00.00.40.20.20.00.034.820.420.30.814.84.77.72.40.02.30.31.50.50.02.11.80.30.00.052.726.88.517.00.43.81.02.30.50.00.90.00.50.00.44.117.10.50.00.20.00.20.00.00.40.00.20.20.00.00.00.00.00.01.80.01.50.30.018.64.114.30.10.00.00.00.00.00.01.72.71.30.01.41.10.30.00.00.10.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.04.10.42.51.20.00.20.10.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Total(millionhectares)83.344.226.812.30.018.71.88.18.80.05.91.33.80.80.07.96.80.80.30.012.15.76.00.40.036.427.98.10.40.02.30.70.01.60.0Physical DegradationAsaPercentageTypes (million hectares)of DegradedSubsidence ofArea Compaction Waterlogging Organic Soils4 68.210.54.62 34.86.03.41 22.13.71.01 11.30.80.200.00.00.04 18.20.50.001.40.40.028.00.10.028.80.00.000.00.00.041.04.90.010.50.80.02 0.53.30.01 0.00.80.000.00.00.034.03.90.032.93.90.000.80.00.000.30.00.000.00.00.029.80.41.911001713400210204.65.00.20.033.024.87.80.40.02.30.70.01.60.00.40.00.00.00.80.50.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.71.00.20.02.62.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Sources and Technical NotesTable 19.1 Forest ResourcesSources: Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO), Forest ResourcesDivision, An Interim Report on theState of the Forest Resources in the DevelopingCountries (FAO, Rome, 1988); United NationsEconomic Commission for Europe andFAO (UNECE/FAO), The Forest Resources ofthe ECE Region (UNECE/FAO, Geneva,1985); FAO and United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP), Tropical ForestResources Assessment Project (in the frameworkof GEMS), Forest Resources of TropicalAfrica, Part II: Country Briefs (FAO/UNEP,Rome, 1981); FAO, Committee on Forestry,Tenth Session, Interim Report on Forest ResourcesAssessment 1990 Project (FAO, Rome,September 1990); FAO, Forest ResourcesAssessment 1990 Project, Second Interim Reporton the State of Tropical Forests (10thWorld Forestry Congress, Paris, September1991—revised October 15,1991).Deforestation data (1981-85) for Algeria,Chile, Islamic Republic of Iran, Morocco,and Tunisia: FAO, unpublished data (FAO,Rome, March 1988); Deforestation data(1980-89) for Argentina: Manuel Winograd,Deforestacidn en Amirica Latina (I): Magnitudy Causas (Ecological Systems AnalysisGroup, Fundacion Bariloche, Bariloche,Argentina, June 1991). Deforestation data(1989-90) for Brazil: G. Meira, InstitutoNacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE),personal communication (INPE, Sao Josedos Campos, Sao Paulo, October 1991). Deforestationdata (1976-86) for Cameroon:Joint Interagency Planning and Review Missionfor the Forestry Sector, Cameroon TropicalForestry Action Plan (Joint Interagency,Rome, 1988). Deforestation data (1973-89)for Costa Rica: Robert Repetto, WilfridoCruz, Raul Solorzano, et al., Accounts Overdue:Natural Resource Depreciation in CostaRica (Tropical Science Center and World ResourcesInstitute, San Jose, Costa Rica andWashington, D.C., November 1991). Deforestationdata (1981-85) for Cote d'lvoire:Egnankou Wadja Mathieu, personal communication(Institut de la Carte Internationalde la Vegetation, Toulouse Cedex,France, March 1991). Deforestation data(1983-87) for India: Forest Survey of India,Ministry of Environment and Forest, TheState of Forest Report 1989 (Government ofIndia, Dehra Dun, India, 1990). Deforestationdata (1982-90) for Indonesia: DirectorateGeneral of Forest Utilization, Ministryof Forestry, FAO, Situation and Outlook ofthe Forestry Sector in Indonesia, Volume 2: ForestResource Base (Government of Indonesia,Jakarta, September 1990); Regional PhysicalPlanning Programme for Transmigration(RePPProT) Government of Indonesia,Overseas Development Administration(United Kingdom), The Land Resources of Indonesia:A National Overview, Main Report(Government of Indonesia, Jakarta, May1990). Deforestation data (1979-89) for Malaysia:Forestry Department Headquarters,personal communication (Forestry DepartmentHeadquarters, Kuala Lumpur, February1991). Deforestation data (1981-83) forMexico: Victor M. Toledo, Julia Carabias,Carlos Toledo, et al, La Produccion Rural enMexico: Alternativas Ecologicas (FundacionUniverso Veintiuno, Mexico City, 1989). Deforestationdata (1984) for Myanmar: U.S.Kyaw, "National Report: Burma," in Proceedingsof Ad Hoc FAO/ECE/FINNIDA Meetingof Experts on Forest Resource Assessment,Kotka, Finland, 26-30 October 1987 (FinnishInternational Development Agency, Helsinki,1987); P.E.T. Allen, A Quick New Appraisalof the Forest Cover of Burma UsingLANDSAT Satellite Imagery at 1:1,000,000scale, Technical Note 11, FAO/UNEP NationalForest Survey and Inventory (FAO/UNEP,n.p., June 1984). Deforestation data (1989-90) for Paraguay: Jorg Henninger andHugo Huespe Fatecha, "Reforestation yDeforestation en el Paraguay—Worid Resources 1992-93291

19 Forests and RangelandsUn Analisis," Revista Forested, Vol. VI, No. 3(December 1990), pp. 4-12. Deforestationdata (1980-87) for the Philippines: Republicof the Philippines, Masterplan for ForestryDevelopment (Government of the Philippines,Manila, July 1989); David Kummer,Deforestation in the Post-War Philippines (Universityof Chicago Press, Chicago, 1992). Deforestationdata (1985-88) for Thailand:Royal Forestry Department of Thailand,Forest Management Division, Ministry ofAgriculture and Cooperatives, The Area ofForest in Thailand in 1988 from LANDSATData (in Thai) (Ministry of Agriculture andCooperatives, Bangkok, January 1989). Deforestationdata (1985) for Viet Nam: VoQuy, University of Hanoi, "Vietnam's EcologicalSituation Today," in ESCAP EnvironmentNews, Vol. 6, No. 4 (October—December1988), p. 5; Committee for RationalUtilisation of Natural Resources and EnvironmentalProtection (Programme 5202)with the assistance from the InternationalUnion for Conservation of Nature and NaturalResources (IUCN), Viet Nam NationalConservation Strategy (Draft) (EnvironmentalServices Group, World Wildlife Fund—India, New Delhi, June 1985). Deforestationdata (1977-87) for the United States: personalcommunication (Forest Service, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, December 1989).Reforestation data for Australia, Canada,Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Israel,Japan, New Zealand, Turkey, UnitedStates, U.S.S.R. and Europe: FAO, Forest Resources1980 (FAO, Rome, 1985).Reforestation data for China: Stanley D.Richardson, Forests and Forestry in China:Changing Patterns in Resource Development(Island Press, Washington, D.C., 1990). Reforestationdata for Jordan: Library of Congress,Science and Technology Division,Draft Environmental Report on Jordan (Libraryof Congress, Washington, D.C., August1979). Reforestation data for SouthAfrica: FAO, unpublished data (FAO,Rome, March 1988). Reforestation data forYugoslavia: Socijalisticka FederativnaRepublika Jugoslavia Savenzi Zavod ZaStatistiku, Statisticki Godisnjak Jugoslavia1983,1984,1985 (Savenzi Zavod ZaStatistiku, Belgrade, 1984,1985,1986).FAO and UNECE/FAO used slightly differentdefinitions in their assessments, eachadapting their definitions to the respectiveforest ecosystem (tropical and temperate).FAO defines closed forest as land wheretrees cover a high proportion of the groundand where grass does not form a continuouslayer on the forest floor. Closed forestin Table 19.1 includes broadleaved forests,coniferous forests, and bamboo forests.UNECE/FAO defines a forest as closedwhen tree crowns cover more than 20 percentof the area and when the area is usedprimarily for forestry. Open forest, as definedby FAO, consists of mixed forest/grasslands with at least 10 percent treecover and a continuous grass layer. Plantationrefers to forest stands established artificiallyby afforestation and reforestation forindustrial and non-industrial usage. Thecategory other wooded area encompasses forestfallows (closed and open forests) andshrubs in tropical countries. In the temper-ate zone, other wooded area are forests thatare not used for agricultural purposes, have5—20 percent of their area covered by treecrowns, or have shrubs or stunted trees coveringmore than 20 percent of their area.In FAO definitions for tropical forest,"natural" means all stands except plantationsand includes stands that have been degradedto some degree by catastrophic fire,logging, agriculture, or acid precipitation.For all regions, trees are distinguished fromshrubs on the basis of height: a mature treehas a single well-defined stem and is tallerthan 7 meters, and a mature shrub is usuallyless than 7 meters tall.Average annual deforestation refers to thepermanent clearing of forestlands for use inshifting cultivation, permanent agriculture,or settlements. As defined here, deforestationdoes not include other alterations, suchas selective logging (unless the forest coveris permanently reduced to less than 10 percent)that can substantially affect forests,forest soil, wildlife and its habitat, and theglobal carbon cycle.Average annual reforestation refers to the establishmentof plantations in tropical regionsfor industrial and nonindustrial uses.Reforestation does not include regenerationof old tree crops (through either natural regenerationor forest management), althoughsome countries may reportregeneration as reforestation. Many treesare also planted for nonindustrial uses,such as village wood lots. Reforestationdata often exclude this component.Managed closed forests are those that aremanaged on the basis of a plan drawn upby professionally qualified foresters or thathave some control of use such as harvestingregulations and/or silvicultural treatments.Protected closed forests include forests usedfor protection (e.g., watershed management,soil stabilization, avalanche prevention)or conservation in national parks orwilderness areas.Data for developing countries are basedon the 1980 Tropical Forest Resources Assessment,a joint project of FAO and UNEP.The survey assessed the tropical forests of76 tropical developing countries, covering97 percent of the total area of developingcountries in the tropics. Data for the studywere collected from research institutes; correspondencewith national forestry services;visits to national forestry, land use,and survey institutions; visits to FAO regionaloffices; photographic surveys of allor part of five countries; satellite imagery ofall or part of 19 countries; and side-lookingairborne radar surveys of four additionalcountries. Three countries—Myanmar,India, and Peru—prepared their own nationalreports. In many cases, FAO adjusteddata to fit common definitions and to correspondto the baseline year of 1980.The FAO 1988 Interim Report expandedthe country coverage of the 1980 assessmentto 129 developing countries. In thatdocument, FAO evaluated the overall reliabilityof data on closed forest areas and deforestationrates for the original 76 developingcountries. FAO classified their estimateson closed forest areas and deforestation asvery good or good for 15 countries or partsof countries (containing 40 percent of theclosed forest areas of the 76 tropical countries).These countries or parts of countriesare Benin, Brazil (north), Cameroon (south),Colombia, Cote d'lvoire, The Gambia,Haiti, Liberia, Malaysia (peninsular), Nepal,Paraguay (east), Sierra Leone, Togo, Trinidadand Tobago, and Venezuela. For 40countries or parts of countries (covering anadditional 40 percent of closed forest area),FAO assessed their data on forest cover asvery good or good and their data on deforestationas satisfactory or poor. These countriesor parts of countries are Angola, Bangladesh,Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia, BurkinaFaso, Burundi, Congo (north), Congo(south), Costa Rica, Dominican Republic,El Salvador, French Guiana, Guatemala,Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Guyana, Honduras,India (15%), Jamaica, Kampuchea, Laos,Madagascar, Malaysia (Sabah), Malaysia(Sarawak), Mexico, Mozambique,Myanmar, Namibia (northwest), Nigeria,Panama, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines,Senegal, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Thailand,Viet Nam, and Zaire. Estimates on the forestcover and rate of deforestation in the remaining21 countries or parts of countries(comprising about 20 percent of the totalforest area and 29 percent of the total areaof open forest) were judged as satifactoryor poor.More recent or better deforestation estimatesare presented to provide the readerwith a more current picture. Table 19.1 presentsalternative deforestation data for 15countries, estimates for 12 tropical subregions,and a preliminary global deforestationrate. However, these data must beinterpreted with caution because definitionsand time period covered vary amongthe estimates.Brazil's INPE is currently building ageoreferenced data base of the extent of theBrazilian Amazonian forest, including thetransitional forests and the forest-like portionof the highland savannah ("cerradao").This project is scheduled to be completed in1992. Forest area estimates in this data baseare based on satellite imagery taken in 1985,1988,1989,1990, and 1991, include datafrom two previous surveys in 1975 and1978 by the Instituto Brazileiro de DesenvolvimentoFlorestal (IBDF) and INPE, anda vegetation map derived from a syntheticaperture-radarsurvey during the 1970s. Additionallayers in the data base contain thebasic cartography and political subdivisionof the Legal Amazon at the county level.Forest coverage data are obtained from visualanalysis and digitization of LANDSATthematic mapper color-composite imageson the scale of 1:250,000, with a final effectiveresolution after digitization of theorder of a few hundred meters. Such a database, combined with information on thedate of images and their relationship to theintra-annual seasonal forest felling cycle,and estimates for areas under cloud cover,will yield better estimates of the change inforest cover over the past 17 years in theLegal Amazon of Brazil.Some results of INPE's LANDSAT surveysare already available, indicating amean deforestation rate for the Legal Ama-292World Resources 1992-93

zon of 2.18 million hectares per year for1979-90, an annual rate of 1.79 million hectaresfor 1988-89, and an annual rate of 1.38million hectares for 1989-90. Although onlythe completion of the georeferenced database will reveal the detailed geographicalpatterns of forest change, it is alreadyknown that the 23 percent decrease from1989 to 1990 was not uniform in the LegalAmazon. The deforestation rate forRondonia, a state for which deforestationdata exist for 1980,1983, and 1986, isknown to have reached a maximum in themid-1980s, to have decreased toward 1989,and to have increased from 144,000 hectaresper year in 1989 to 167,000 hectares peryear in 1990. However, in view of the observationaluncertainties, such a change ishard to distinguish from a constant rate. Inthe state of Amapa, cumulative deforestation,although very small, increased from139,000 hectares to 252,000 hectares peryear during the same period.Available results also indicate that cumulativegross deforestation in the Legal Amazonstood at 41.5 million hectares. Of thistotal, 0.5 million hectares correspond to thearea flooded by hydroelectric dams, an undeterminedfraction (which nevertheless isknown to be significant in some areas) correspondsto forest regrowth, and about 9.7million hectares correspond to an area classifiedas "degraded forest" in the vegetationmaps of Brazil (primarily secondary ordegraded forest in the states of Para andMaranhao; also referred to as "old deforestation"by some authors).The mean rate of 2.18 million hectares peryear for the period 1979-90 masks the accelerationof deforestation during the mid-1980s, a climax in the second half of thedecade, and a decline since 1988.The magnitude of the peak rate and theyear it occurred remain in doubt. The onlypublished estimate for 1987 (8 million hectares—AlbertoWaingort Setzer, Marcos daCosta Pereira, Alfred da Costa Pereira, Jr.,and Sergio Alberto de Oliveira Almeida,"Relatorio de Atividades do Projeto IBDF-INPE "SEQE"— Anno 1987," Sao Jose dosCampos, Sao Paulo, Brazil, May 1988)printed in World Resources 1990-91 (alongwith a lower estimate by 1NPE for the decade,and a lower estimate by Setzer for1988) is commonly thought to be an overestimate.That estimate, obtained by correlatingthe annual rate of deforestation to thenumber of Advanced Very High ResolutionRadiometer (AVHRR) thermal infraredpixels saturated by the presence of surfacefires, suffered from three problems. The systemcould not distinguish between a fire inan area as small as 50 by 50 meters and afire in an area of 1,100 by 1,100 meters. Asmany as two thirds of the "tire" pixels assignedto Rondonia were later found to beactually outside Brazil—and Rondonia accountedfor 56 percent of the total in that estimate.There is no necessary correlationbetween new forest clearings and the use offires (a means of clearing dry biomass ofthe felled forest as much as recurring agriculturalpractice). The first two problemsalso imply that the cataclysmic estimate of20 million hectares burning in 1987 was anoverestimate.For some states, partial data from comprehensiveLANDSAT surveys are availablein three-year intervals during the1980s. Together, they account for about halfof the deforestation in the Legal Amazonduring that period. If the same generalcurve shown by those data apply to the restof the Legal Amazon, the maximum rate ofdeforestation occurred sometime in the secondhalf of the decade. The same partialdata also show that the peak cannot havereached a value as high as 8 million hectaresper year in any year, as previouslythought.It is generally believed that there was apeak in the rate of deforestation in 1987,spurred by a constitutional debate aboutagrarian reform, land speculation, ranchingsubsidies, and an especially long dry season.Whatever the exact magnitude of thepeak and the exact year it took place, therate of deforestation in the Legal Amazonhas since decreased steadily, if not uniformly,throughout the region. Measures tocontrol the causes of deforestation havebeen undertaken. They include the suspensionof tax credits for new ranchingschemes, a more systematic campaign topolice illegal forest clearings, the issuanceof fines, and a public information campaign.Superimposed upon this downwardtrend will likely be year-to-year modulationsdue to varying climatic and economicconditions.Deforestation occurs also outside theLegal Amazon of Brazil. The most recent estimate,available from FAO, pertains to theperiod of 1981-85 and puts open forest deforestationat an annual rate of 1.05 millionhectares.In addition, Brazil's National Institute forAmazonian Research is working jointlywith INPE to measure biomass and carbondensity of the forest, sampled in the areaswith high deforestation rates. These newdata, expected in 1992, will improve currentestimates of carbon density reported,which mostly have referred to areas ofdense forest.The Cameroon study estimated the 1986area of closed and open forests by extrapolationfrom 1975 satellite images. It foundthat between 1.8 million and 2 million hectareshad been deforested between 1976 and1986.Costa Rica's deforestation rate is basedon digital analysis of maps of life zones,soil groups, slopes, geomorphology, andland use, which laid the foundation for amore detailed accounting of Costa Rica'snatural resources. The annual deforestationrate of 41,500 hectares depicts changes inCosta Rica's forest cover from 1972-89more accurately than the previously publishedrate of 124,000 hectares, which coveredthe period from 1977-83 and usedsatellite (LANDSAT) multispectral scannerimages.The Cote d'lvoire's deforestation estimateis based on government statistics.The Indian government established theForest Survey of India to monitor India'sForests and Rangelands 19forest cover on a biennial cycle. The latestdata from the 1985-87 assessment is basedon visual interpretation of images fromLANDSAT satellites and puts India's forestcover as follows: forest with a crown densitygreater than 40 percent extends over37.85 million hectares; forest with crowndensity between 10 and 40 percent covers25.74 million hectares; mangrove forestequals 0.42 million hectares. India's totalforest area comes to 64.01 million hectares,equivalent to 19.5 percent of its geographicalarea.Reconciliation of the data from a previous1981-83 assessment by the Forest Surveyof India and a 1980-82 assessment byIndia's National Remote Sensing Agencyproduced an estimate of 64.2 million hectares,190,000 hectares more than the 1985-87 number. This computes to an annualloss of 47,500 hectares for the four-year periodbetween the two assessments.A comparison of these two assessments,however, is only partially valid because ofdiffering scales (1:1 million versus1:250,000) and different spatial resolutionof the satellite scanners (79 meters versus30 meters). The new deforestation rate contrastsdrastically with the rate obtained bycomparing the reconciled forest area from1981-83 with satellite imagery from 1972-75 by the National Remote Sensing Agency.In that period, 10.4 million hectares ofdense forest (crown density greater than 40percent) were lost, equivalent to an annualrate of 1.5 million hectares. However, suchsudden changes in the deforestation rateseem to be very unlikely. It can be concludedthat all previous assessments havebeen of very limited value to estimate forestchange and have greatly distorted deforestationestimates.Nevertheless, the data on forest extentfrom the latest assessment can be used as abaseline since they have been verified by extensiveground truthing. Hence, future estimatesof forest change in India will becomemore accurate, and a true monitoring of forestchange on a national scale will be possible.Indonesia's latest assessment on deforestationused records of the Directorate Generalof Reforestation and Land Rehabilitationand the Ministry of Forestry. They putthe annual rate of deforestation on theOuter Islands at 906,400 hectares for the period1982-90. If the entire area burned bythe fire in Kalimantan is incorporated,Indonesia's annual deforestation reached1.3 million hectares.Malaysia's deforestation rate is the latestestimate by the Forestry Departments ofPeninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak.Mexico's deforestation estimate draws onthe work of Toledo, who used informationfrom agricultural censuses, cattle population,and inventories on land use. Toledocalculated an annual deforestation of 1.1million hectares. The annual deforestationrate could be as high as 1.5 million hectaresif additional clearing of forests for agricultural,urban expansion, and forest fires areincluded.World Resources 1992-93293

19 Forests and RangelandsThe deforestation rate for Myanmar isbased on aerial photographs, field studies,and satellite imagery.Paraguay's annual deforestation was estimatedat 168,000 hectares for the periodfrom 1985-90 and has soared to an annualrate of 450,000 hectares in the past year. Theauthors used Paraguay's total harvest ofwood—official production statistics and estimatesof illegal exports to Brazil—to calculatethe extent of deforestation.Philippine deforestation is derived bycomparing 1980 LANDSAT data with landcover statistics that had been prepared bythe Swedish Space Corporation using remotesensing.The estimate for the average annual deforestationof Thailand's total forest area wasprovided by the Royal Forestry Departmentand is based on LANDSAT imagery.The University of Hanoi data came fromthe Forest Inventory and Planning Institute(FIPI) of the Ministry of Forestry in Hanoi.It estimates that, between 1976 and 1981,Viet Nam's area of rich broadleaf forest wasreduced by 865,000 hectares. Current forestloss is estimated at about 200,000 hectaresannually.Please refer to the country sources for additionalinformation.The deforestation estimates for 12 tropicalsubregions and the global rate for 1981-90came from the Forest Resources Assessment1990 Project, FAO's ongoing appraisal ofthe world's forest cover and recent trendsin deforestation.In the past two years, FAO developed aconsistent methodology to estimate forestcover and change. It uses subnational statisticaldata on population and socioeconomicvariables, maps on vegetation and ecofloristiczones, forest survey data, and imagesfrom remote sensing. On the basis of thesedata, FAO calculated the global and subregionalrates of deforestation that include 87countries. The area deforested annually between1981 and 1990 is estimated at 16.9million hectares. A comparison with FAO'sprevious assessment is possible for 76 countriesthat were identical in both assessments.It shows that the annual deforestation ratefor 1976-80 jumped from 11.3 million hectares(0.6 percent) to 16.9 million hectares(0.9 percent) for the period 1981-90. Twofactors were responsible for this 50 percentincrease: The 1980 assessment underestimatedthe rate of deforestation for the period1976-80, especially in Asia; and conversionof tropical moist forest has acceleratedsignificantly. Not enough data are yetavailable to estimate the contribution ofeach factor.The UNECE/FAO survey covered alltypes of forests in the 32 member countriesof the ECE region (Europe, North America,and the U.S.S.R.). Data for this study weredrawn from four types of sources: officialdata supplied in response to questionnaires;estimates by experts in some countries;recent ECE and FAO publications,country reports, and official articles; and estimatesby the professional staff conductingthe study. Most data refer to the periodaround 1980, but no attempt was made toadjust the data to a baseline year.The UNECE/FAO 1990 survey of temperate-zonecountries covers all forests in the32 countries of the ECE region, as well asforests in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.Data are being obtained mainly fromofficial sources in response to a questionnaireand are augmented by other sources.It consists of two parts: general forestry inventorydata, and the role of forests in supplyingenvironmental and other nonwoodgoods and services. Preliminary results forEurope point to a continuation during the1980s of modest growth in the area of forestand other wooded land, and somewhatstronger growth in growing stock and increment,partly as a result of fuller and moreaccurate inventory coverage. Because of alack of firm data, the part dealing with nonwoodbenefits follows a more qualitativeapproach.Table 19.2 Wood Productionand Trade, 1977-89Source: Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO), Agrostat PC(FAO, Rome, April 1991).Total roundwood production refers to allwood in the rough, whether destined for industrialor fuelwood uses. All wood felledor harvested from forests and trees outsidethe forest, with or without bark, round,split, roughly squared, or other forms suchas roots and stumps, is included.Fuel and charcoal production covers allrough wood used for cooking, heating, andpower production. Wood intended for charcoalproduction, pit kilns, and portableovens is included.Industrial roundwood production comprisesall roundwood products other than fuelwoodand charcoal: sawlogs, veneer logs,sleepers, pitprops, pulpwood, and other industrialproducts.Processed wood production includes sawnwoodand panels. Sawnwood is wood thathas been sawn, planed, or shaped into productssuch as planks, beams, boards, rafters,or railroad ties. Wood flooring is excluded.Sawnwood generally is thicker than 5 millimeters.Panels include all wood-based panelcommodities such as veneer sheets, plywood,particle board, and compressed ornoncompressed fiberboard.Paper production includes newsprint, printingand writing paper, and other paper andpaperboard.Average annual net trade in roundwood isthe balance of imports minus exports.Trade in roundwood includes sawlogs andveneer logs, fuelwood, pulpwood, other industrialroundwood, and the roundwoodequivalent of trade in charcoal, wood residues,and chips and particles. All tradedata refer to both coniferous and nonconiferouswood. Imports are usually on acost, insurance, freight basis. Exports aregenerally on a free-on-board basis.FAO compiles forest products data fromresponses to annual questionnaires sent tonational governments. Data from othersources, such as national statistical yearbooks,are also used. In some cases, FAOprepares its own estimates. FAO continuallyrevises its data using new information;the latest figures are subject to revision.Statistics on the production of fuelwoodand charcoal are lacking for many countries.FAO uses population data and country-specific,per capita consumption figuresto estimate fuelwood and charcoal production.Consumption of nonconiferous fuelwoodranges from a low of 0.0016 cubicmeter per capita per year in Jordan to ahigh of 0.9783 cubic meter per capita peryear in Benin. Consumption was also estimatedfor coniferous fuelwood. For both coniferousand nonconiferous fuelwood, theper capita consumption estimates were multipliedby the number of people in the countryto determine national totals.Table 19.3 Human-Induced SoilDegradation, 1945 to Late 1980sSources: L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling,and W.G. Sombroek, World Map of the Statusof Human-Induced Soil Degradation, an ExplanatoryNote (International Soil Referenceand Information Centre (ISRIC) and UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP),(ISRIC/UNEP, Wageningen, Netherlands,1990), and unpublished data (ISRIC, Wageningen,Netherlands, November 1991).Data presented here are from a series ofthree digitized soil degradation maps of theworld published by ISRIC in 1990. Underthe sponsorship of the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, ISRIC brought togethersome 250 soil scientists and environmentalexperts to participate in the GlobalAssessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD)project. These experts used their knowledgeof specific geographic regions to estimatethe status of human-induced soildegradation since 1945. Because of the lowresolution of the maps (scale 1:15 million)the information derived from these maps isnot intended for use at the national level.GLASOD considers human-induced soildegradation to be activities that "lower thecurrent and/or future capability of the soilsto produce goods or services." Degradedarea as a percentage of all vegetated land is theproportion of degraded land to the total ofland classified as "degraded", "permanentagriculture and stabilized terrain", and"natural area" (as defined in the technicalnote for Table 19.4).The four broad categories of degradationare defined as follows:Water erosion and wind erosion take placethrough topsoil loss, the removal of soil bywind action, or surface wash or sheet erosioncaused by water; and terrain deformation,which is the uneven displacement ofsoil. Terrain deformation by wind createsdunes and hollows, whereas deformationby water results in rill and gully formation,landslides, and riverbank destruction.Wind erosion can also take the form of overblowing,in which wind-borne soil is depositedon the land surface.There are four types of chemical degradation.Nutrient loss is caused by insufficientmanuring or fertilizing of fields in poor ormoderately fertile areas. It also occurswhen organic matter is lost following the294World Resources 1992-93

Forests and Rangelands 19clearing of vegetation. Nutrient loss resultingfrom the displacement of fertile topsoilby wind or water erosion is counted separatelyunder the "wind erosion" and"water erosion" categories. Salinization isan increase in the salt content of soils as aresult of three processes: poorly managedirrigation schemes in the semi-arid zones(e.g., using irrigation water with a high saltcontent, improper drainage of irrigatedfields), saltwater intrusion into the groundwater,and the accumulation of salts fromsaline groundwater or parent rock in thesoil because of high moisture evaporationin intensively cultivated agricultural areas.Pollution takes place when soils are contaminatedby pesticides, urban and industrialwastes, acids from air pollution, oil, andother substances. Acidification is the loweringof soil pH through the overapplicationof fertilizers or from drainage of pyrite-containingsoils (which causes the pyrite to oxidizeinto sulfuric and other acids).Physical degradation can take place inthree ways: through compaction, wherebysoil structure deteriorates because of tramplingby cattle or heavy machinery, resultingin soil crusting and sealing when itrains; waterlogging, which is the flooding orinundation of soils as a result of human interferencewith natural drainage systems(land flooded to make rice paddies is not included);and subsidence of organic soils,which occurs when the agricultural potentialof the land is adversely effected bydrainage and/or oxidation.Experts in the GLASOD project madequalitative evaluations of the degree of degradationresulting from the activities listedabove. They considered the agriculturalsuitability of the soil, its biotic functions,and any decline in productivity as a basisfor defining four degrees of degradation:• Light degradation has occurred where therehas been only a small decline in agriculturalproductivity, where biotic functionsare largely intact, and where soils can befully restored, given changes in ongoingland-use practices.• Moderate degradation still permits continuingagricultural use of an area, but withgreatly reduced productivity. Biotic functionsare only partly destroyed. Restorationis possible given major changes in land-usepractices.• Strong degradation has occurred when agriculturaluse under local land use managementis no longer possible and most bioticfunctions have been destroyed. Restorationis possible, at a high cost.• Extreme degradation has occurred when thearea has become unsuitable for agricultureand is beyond restoration. Biotic functionsare completely destroyed.Table 19.4 Causes of Human-Induced Soil DegradationSources: L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling,and W.G. Sombroek, World Map of the Statusof Human-Induced Soil Degradation, an ExplanatoryNote (International Soil Referenceand Information Centre (ISRIC) and UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP),(ISRIC/UNEP, Wageningen, Netherlands,1990), and unpublished data (ISRIC, Wageningen,Netherlands, November, 1991).Data presented here are from a series of 3digitized soil degradation maps of theworld published by ISRIC in 1990. For detailson this project, the Global Assessmentof Soil Degradation (GLASOD) project,refer to the technical note for Table 19.3.Degraded area refers to land affected by alldegrees of human-induced soil degradation,as described in the technical note forTable 19.3. Permanent agriculture and stabilizedterrain consist of undegraded landunder permanent agriculture and land stabilizedthrough reforestation, terracing,gully control, and other conservation practices.Natural area is land where few humanactivities take place, that is where the landis unsuitable for agriculture because of lowtemperatures, steep slopes, poor drainage,and poor soils, or because the areas in questionare remotely located. This category includesrainforest areas, parks and otherprotected areas, and semidesert regions.Nonvegetated land consists of active dunes,salt flats, rock outcrops, deserts, ice caps,and arid mountain regions.GLASOD identifies five causes of soildegradation:H Vegetation removal entails the removal ofvegetative cover through agricultural clearing,logging, or development.• Overexploitation is the decrease in soil coverthrough removal of vegetation for fuelwood,sfencing, and so on.U Overgrazing by livestock leads to a decreasein vegetative cover and trampling of soil.• Agricultural activities include insufficient orexcessive use of manure and fertilizers; cultivationon steep slopes or in arid areas withoutproper anti-erosion measures; improperirrigation; and use of heavy machinery onsoils with weak structural stability.• Industrial and bioindustrial activities result insoils contaminated with pollutants, for example,through waste discharge, overuse ofpesticides, and excessive fertilization.World Resources 1992-93295

20. Wildlife and HabitatThe world's biological resources—its species, habitats,and ecosystems—are under threat from growing populations,unsustainable consumption patterns, pollution,wasteful resource use, and global change. Bydamaging the highly diverse ecosystems that supportthe world's species, we alter hydrological cycles andclimate and degrade soil-building and pollutant-absorbingmechanisms.One traditional approach to protecting the world'sbiodiversity has been to establish parks and reservesthat protect selected lands—often representative ecosystems—fromdevelopment. Table 20.1 lists theamount of land contained in national and internationalprotected areas by categories of protection forcountries and regions. As Table 20.1 shows, almost 5percent of the world's land mass is now either totallyor partially protected as parks and reserves, not includingAntarctica. For many countries, little natural habitatremains outside protected areas. (For informationon habitat extent and loss, see Table 20.4 in World Resources1990-91.) Of the continents, Europe has the secondhighest percentage of land (7.5 percent) under apark and reserve system; 7.9 million hectares of this(21 percent) are fully protected, representing virtuallyall the available natural habitat left in the region.Other regions have significant amounts of unprotectednatural areas remaining. Although Asia has oneof the lowest percentages of land protected (3.2 percent),13 percent of its land mass is considered wilderness.(See Chapter 17, "Land Cover and Settlements.")Table 20.2 presents data on trade in plants, animals,and animal products. To prevent the wholesale loss ofspecies in the face of world demand, parties to theConvention on International Trade in Endangered Speciesof Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) pledge to abideby certain regulations and to report trade in designatedanimals and animal products to the Secretariatof CITES.Table 20.3 gives the results of a survey of threats toWorld Heritage Sites, the most recent global survey ofa protected area system. Regional tallies show that developmentis the most commonly reported threat inNorth and Central America (57 percent of sites), Europe(45 percent of sites), and Oceania (70 percent ofsites). Inadequate or insufficient management was themost commonly reported problem in Asia, as was illegalor overharvest of wildlife in Africa, and fire andnatural threats in South American sites.Tables 20.4 and 20.5 present current data on the statusof the world's rare and threatened wildlife andplant species. Data are most complete for plants;whereas very little is known about the total and threatenednumbers of reptiles, amphibians, and fish.Table 20.5 includes three measures of threats tocountries' plant diversity. The numbers of threatenedspecies reflect both the degree of biological diversityand the size of the country. Over 70 percent of SouthAmerican countries and territories report a minimumof 50 threatened taxa, the highest percentage of any region.When the number of threatened species is comparedon a per-unit-area basis, 56 percent of countriesin Oceania report at least 40 threatened plant taxa per10,000 square kilometers as contrasted with only 31percent of countries in South America. Oceania alsohas the greatest number of countries with over 5 percentof their known plant species considered to bethreatened. In part, this reflects the vulnerability ofendemic island species in Oceania to introductions ofexotic plants and animals as well as habitat loss.National totals also reflect differences in how thoroughlytaxa have been catalogued and monitored.Table 20.6 presents a list of officially sanctioned andfunded debt-for-nature swaps. The debt-for-natureswap is an innovative conservation financing instrumentdeveloped in response to environmental problemsas well as the debt crisis in the developing world.In a swap, a country's foreign debt is purchased by anoutside organization. In exchange, the debtor nationpays off this loan in local currency by funding a previouslydetermined local conservation program.So far, debt-for-nature swaps have reduced externaldebt by approximately $100 million. Although theseswaps have added significantly to participatingcountries' conservation funds, their effect on the developingcountries' total external debt of approximately$1.2 trillion has been negligible.Costa Rica has had the largest volume of debt-fornatureswaps. As shown in Table 20.6, $12.5 million ingrants and donations were used to purchase CostaRican debt nominally worth some $80 million. Thisdebt has been exchanged for nearly $43 million in localcurrency bonds, which have been used to support variouslocal conservation initiatives, including training,research, public awareness, land acquisition, and protection.World Resources 1992-93297

20 Wildlife and HabitatTable 20.1 National and International Protection of NaturalWORLDAll ProtectedAreasAreaNumber (000 ha)6,931 651,290National Protection SystemsTotally Protected Partially ProtectedAreas (IUCN Areas (IUCNcategories Mil) categories IV, V)AreaAreaNumber (000 ha) Number (000 ha)2,357 378,505 4,574 272,785Percent ofNationalLand AreaProtected4.8Marine andCoastal ProtectedAreas (b)AreaNumber (000 ha)977 211,406International Protection Systems (a}Number of Wetlands ofBiosphere Natural InternationalWorld ImportanceArea HeritageAreaNumber (000 ha) Sites Number (000 ha)283 152,520 92 503 30,217AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA {e}BarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela601 117,08819 11,8986 2,6922 8449 10,0257 7391 3813 2,1000 07 3,9041 1140 010 1,33312 2,0201 109 6850 024 6,2235 1,7902 128 1,0752 1290 036 3,3471 71 1313 15536 1,0789 1,0677 8893 1,73331119415210301781332011719920214368210,3461,6541,640 232,6890842628291992341,5473272,18110106,3107,7324011,913647451,7568,8276,3612,83107449,4526067147268887090 061 9,4206 4316 1,3266 15968 98,342552 101,35111323162654214112241487412,6396,77420,52513,6509,30210,686121,1865,5187633220,265241 86,29412 11,7871 7902 8444 8,7873 4400 08 1,5580 03 2,8961 1140 01 12710 1,9181 103 380 013 3,2401 4802 126 1,0622 1290 030 3,2770 01 1311 357036983501,48315512060421260014701136482013590011381718163214047313030428034890323691813624108808,9261,5015343271,012003,0946,87303,913357427708,7946,3612,737142,0500426,813476443721698589360 30,794 3.97 110 5.05 1,902 2.20 0 7.55 1,238 17.24 299 2.71 38 1.45 542 4.40 0 0.04 1,008 6.30 0 0.10 0 0.02 12 4.59 1,207 3.92 102 6.30 0 0.46 647 0.70 0 0.011 2,982 5.14 1,310 6.70 0 1.100610221461351521404300728811110360200 02,223 1427 31,195 30 638,471 66452,278 2722,2692,67813,9068,3789,2542,657121,1572,531553158,869007070120375369539250428021,4201541,01301,16810103,215859408,00029039863309416463981151081,050 90,63807022,6391302727915723365041186330619012107,197161310.50.05.80.21.20.11.89.00.71.72.20.80.012.61.31.712.411.11.40.05.23.12.312.611.40.37.43.88.57.210.40.03.25.011.96.40.11.20.80.36.30.04.80.317.215 3.059,871 10.549,072 5.710,3704,0976,6195,271478,0280292,9872101611,3964.66.22.418.08.237.70.12.94.34.70.222.243120NANANA10NANA01103012009,5702620NANANA1600NANA03003006202001.05800401-.1132----22-.1100 200734NA0NA01NA NA0 000 -12 1NA NA120XNA0NA4000111624130XNA0NA810013 15200NA NA00 00100NANA2140X487670301107947NA2032950NA45111400NANA135,7810X7,106194227270013035001,1194898354,31724,7171,499NA2,03210,0506158,9750NA7101283704111322413--67624-.1—614324537323120,0567,200880168501,6401721,48011581338511407710151,0941,901—2,33832220298~93,618-.1,050729324—~5001,288--59719,10811,9192,410435~2,4072,5141,4462,507--200261000101--03 d—0„1001 d00111 c10102 d—9 d9201002004 c33—1----2—3—111--13,190..195———1061,08073919—1,173112200— —2 4 100— —--.. 7 2080 — —4 — -.--1315—20 58 15,1476 d 30 12,9381 d0 -- -01 c 1 X011 10 14 --1 d2 d085-11---—111471,11623255--.-~1220010298World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 20Areas, 1990 Table 20.1-National Protection SystemsInternational Protection Systems {a}Totally Protected Partially ProtectedMarine andNumber of Wetlands ofAll Protected Areas (IUCN Areas (IUCN Percent of Coastal Protected Biosphere Natural InternationalAreas categories I III) categories IV, V) National Areas {b}Reserves World ImportanceAreaAreaArea Land AreaAreaArea Heritage AreaNumber (000 ha) Number (000 ha) Number (000 ha) Protected Number (000 ha) Number (000 ha) Sites Number (000 ha)ASIA 1,392 90,607 389 34,021 1,003 56,587 3.2 13,987 36 7,438 12 40 1,354Afghanistan4 142 0 0142 0.2 NA NABahrain0 0 0 00 0.0030Bangladesh8 97 0 097 0.732Bhutan7 924 2 68856 19.7 NA NACambodia0 0 0 00 0.00 0China289 21,947 4 101 285 21,846 2.3 20 1,184 7 1,819 2 cCyprus0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000-- 0Indonesia169 17,800 98 13,133 71 4,667 9.3 68 8,941 6 1,482 0 ~Iran, Islamic Rep60 7,529 27 2,986 33 4,543 4.63 725 9 2,610 0 18 1,088Iraq0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000- 0Israel18 226 1 31 17 195 10.91 31-- — --Japan65 2,402 21 1,308 44 1,094 6.4 30 637 4 1163 10Jordan7 93 1 1 6 92 1.0000 1 7Korea, Dem People's Rep2 58 1 44 1 14 0.500 1 132India359 13,481 59 3,525 300 9,956 4.114 4745 6 193Korea, Rep17 578 0 0 17 578 5.83 285Kuwait0 0 0 0 0 000 0.000Lao People's Dem Rep0 0 0 0 0 0.0 NA NALebanon1 4 1 4 06 0.30 0Malaysia45 1,162 39 864298 3.59 52Mongolia14 5,618 14 5,618 0 0 3.6 NA NA0Myanmar2 173 1 161 1 13 0.300—Nepal11 959 7 864 4 94 6.8 NA NA2 1 18Oman2 54 0 0 2 54 0.3110 -- ~Pakistan53 3,655 6 882 47 2,773 4.61 16 1 31 0 9 21Philippines28 584 15 237 13 347 1.95 31 1,174Qatar0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000Saudi Arabia7 5,619 2 325 5 5,294 2.62 475Singapore1 3 0 0 1 3 4.400Sri Lanka43 784 14 492 29 292 11.96 303Syrian Arab Rep0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0000Thailand83 5,106 55 2,842 28 2,264 10.0 10 62526 0Turkey18 269 12 196 6 73 0.33 114 2 cUnited Arab Emirates0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000Viet Nam58 892 7 142 51 750 2.72 34Yemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGerman (Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.001,65813129239616535815422520462261080036,813551,594721291,9644238074,7792,9561,998104511916271,30100266600291163391010093300264213007,9092300001,39271292113 10215 501550527813071021922126002304,552135592725322510461330028,904321,59472161,7484073024,5012,9431,9983351169741,175001252152,0950.00.07.51.919.02.41.215.49.82.48.727.38.00.85.58.90.44.30.00.09.514.77.1001805NA00NA30279513050007,700 8328NA 400NA120849725810518000686878003554,7672,23000422665NA010124141,5552600—0121 454 4 103 17 350 4.98 132 1 036 562 2 69 34 493 2.40 0 3 41161 3,511 9 123 152 3,388 7.09 75 1011 61599 1,758 15 589 84 1,169 3.95 129715 111 1 17 14 94 2.7 NA NA17138 4,639 1 4 137 4,635 18.9 35 1,194 13 44 368 791 33 485 35 307 3.112 227 2 350 4New Zealand152 2,839 52 2,517 100 322 10.5Papua New Guinea50 29 30 70 20 220 0.1Solomon Islands00.032001,38600176 24,074 170 23,802 6 272 1.1 22 4,925 20 10,891 0OCEANIA911 48,632 421 32,151 490 16,481 5.7 229 14,547 13 4,745 11Australia728 45,654 355 29,575 373 16,079 5.9 184 13,035 12Fiji2 5 2 5 0 0 0.3144,743Sources: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and World Conservation Monitoring Centre.Notes: a. Areas listed often include nationally protected systems, b. 1989 data. c. Includes one or more mixed natural/cultural sites, d. Includes one international heritage site.e. Regional totals include Greenland.World totals for national and international protection systems exclude Antarctica. World and regional totals include countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measurement; NA = not applicable; -- = country is not a party to the convention.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.8405090211NA0543,5087317651225233,85328253645031325912994001402001002 c0—OO -* O O! ! 03 ! Co-3115648271112181113221451111452173024421244395-2,790-102102177341018531546107110581354-030616731993832173182,9874,5164,47838World Resources 1992-93299

20 Wildlife and HabitatTable 20.2 Trade in Wildlife and Wildlife Products ReportedWORLD (c)AFRICAAlgeriaAngola {d}BeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape Verde (d)Central African RepChadComoros {d}CongoCote d'lvoire {d}Djibouti (d)EgyptEquatorial Guinea (d)EthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesotho (d)LiberiaLibya {d}MadagascarMalawiMali {d(Mauritania {d}MauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra Leone {d}SomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwaziland {d}TanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbados {d}BelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaiti {d}HondurasJamaica {d}MexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuelaCITESReportingMammalsRequirement Live Primates Cat SkinsImportsMet {a} (number) (number)(percent) Imports ExportsExports670 543 X100X X 267X X X670 4 0X0X241,644 41,644 136,825 136,82530 9,051 217 1,10950X X X XNAX X X X0X X X X83X X 193 0XX X X X0X X X X910 129 11 0NAX X X X60X X 0 430X X X XNAX X1000 1NAX XX0XX1XNAX X X X016 0 1 0NA0 6 X X00 1,084 0 7100X X 10 030X X XX X850 147X56 0 7 0 1XX X 00X0 59360 3,291 5X1NAX X3890NA12 0 X X93X XXX X X7X88X 0NAX XNAX X X X810 1,436 X X360 33 X X440 2 1 0XX X 0 84471 0 X X201 0 0 1411X X X X920 645 1 0NAX X X X25X X X X930 23 0 63429X XX X XNAX X X800 2,160 0 70730 504 X X100 X X 0 70XX X X X640 83 00 1156X X1387800 14814,931 1,672 740 28,763NA0 625 X X67X X000 X X100 86400 9,16073 51XX 5X0X X X X0X X 0 2701 0 0 1NAX X X X400 532 0 3NAX X X XX 244 0 0 56850 11 X X0X83X X 740501 0 X87 13,811 0 0 19,5407 4,335 4 15,0321000 25 055X X 0270 61 2607 0 0670 7 0710 1 015,01510151620 3,694 0 354X X 0 4Birds Reptiles PlantsLive Parrots(number)Imports Exports625,595 625,59530,233 177,3634 00 6X X1 00 90 10 14,191X X0 465X X1 00 360 1,053X X1,412 00 503 02 0X X0 4,1410 29,8780 10 7X X0 7,6938 00 12,657X X0 996X X304 026X 0X0X58X0X00X26,16551,7550010000537287,6555806,19100444811160003,1110120102277,432840058000000002620X33,7291X00065,0915,985033481,002029,81301004,632181000324,51530479000274,577179,76240826211026,935316,7609,71940,5370Reptile Skins (b)(number)Imports Exports6,634,678 6,634,67815,661XX0363XX0XX0X00XXXX0X0000X0X000X1634200X0X00X14,9400X00000001,867,491XX119,726XXXXXX0X775,117XX3,4690XX148,510XX35,710X1,35846XXXX1X34518,4349321,400X5X3,1771,830406,312X007954X2,384X9,2005X0106,702X2,31816,415399183,75411,60722,723XX0XXXXXX15,253X0X7,470X0106,457X0X1,641,30812,341 2,378,7070 1,747,1530 93,7088,984003,3500 74,173XX0 72,5210 2070XX0 29,8380 92,294Live Cacti(hundreds)Imports Exports79,120 79,1204XXXXXX1XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX0XXXXXXXX0XXXXXXXX327,8246X0000X00X00XX127,81700000X0X00X00552XXXXXX0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX496XXXXXXXX55XXXXXXXX012,6380X8,019004,578X020X020XX0017,375103017,3260X0X80X00Live Orchids(hundreds)Imports Exports68,542 68,542501XXXXX1XXXX2X0XXXXXX0XX18X0X0XXX2XXXX0XXXX476XXXXXXXX22,235806320043227000X0201,52080000070000006XXXXX0XXXX0X0XXXXXX0XX0X0X5XXX0XXXX0XXXX0XXXXXXXX03160730260000012314151X2001,469001,04408501292741034300World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 20by CITES, 1988 Table 20.2ASIAAfghanistanBahrain {d}BangladeshBhutan (d)Cambodia {d}ChinaCyprusHong KongIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraq {d}IsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's Rep (d)Korea, Rep {d}Kuwait (d)Lao People's Dem Rep (d)Lebanon {d}MalaysiaMongolia {d}Myanmar {d}NepalOman {d}PakistanPhilippinesQatar (d)Saudi Arabia (d)SingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab Rep {d}Taiwan {d}ThailandTurkey {d}United Arab EmiratesViet Nam {d}Yemen (Arab Rep) (d)(People's Dem Rep) {d}EUROPEAlbania {d}AustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakia (d)DenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreece {d}HungaryIceland {d}Ireland (d)ItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomania {d}SpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslavia {d}U.S.S.R.(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)OCEANIAAustraliaFiji {d}New ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon Islands {d}CITESReportingRequirementMet {a}MammalsLive Primates(number)Cat Skins(number)BirdsLive Parrots(number)ReptilesReptile Skins (b)(number)(percent) Imports ExportsExports ImportsImports ExportsNA2 0 X X X XXXNA5 0 2,861 0 363 0 25,1990NA2 0 1 0 1,127 0XXNA0 201 X X X XXXNA1 0 14 0 51 0 34608345 0 0 1 0 6,818 0 238,205NAX X X X X XXXNA0 52 X X 0 597XX80X X 0 2 35 0XXNA3 0 X X 72 0XX10,584 25,968 39,507 89,656 76,301 135,210 1,903,216 3,704,1160X X X X X XXXNAX X X X 373 0XX1002 0 X X 1,238 0XXNAX X X X X XXXNA0 5 X X X XXX1000 2,199 0 89,650 118 00 65,66533X X 7 00 451 0011000 37 1,7728,441 0 267,39301000 4 X X 0 8,7810 3,821910 11,851 X X 0 87,8300 3,032,18929X X X X X XXXNA X X X X 8 0XX082 00 X X 2,242 0 8,0640100 7,13334,696 0 35,097 0 950,047027X X 1 0 10,248 0XX100X X 2 0 0 6,3940890 11,386 X XX00 0 661 0XNA 150 00 X910 0NA70 13 2,456 0 8,839100220 1 12,130 0 445,87355NANA43NA0NANANANA100100XNA1007110010054NA80NANA1001001001000X3,1250X27XXX13,985X1641,0928503032,0912X011X0XXX11X00000X15X127X0XX84,622X1,157328X02X0X0X1XX2,179X00X10 957 00000 0 3483,441 0255 21,637 01 0199X0971XX1,253100 10X 4544NA100100100100NA86100NA10071NA303443389655,7171,6341,72910X1XX0 1,4480 5X 111 10 7,978XX000oooooXX312230,2993X6,9561610,2700 00 X0 11,43417 1417 13X0XX X10X52100000XX000o oo Xo1,309X020X02X157200237590XX222,942X4,4720300021,541319002,269XX7,458X01,80101,6165,205 04 00030,12054,906 0 2,1024,0645101729,72300500X1162,888034,56600XX2,818,588X96,52171,751XXLive Cacti(hundreds)Imports Exports166,418 27,586XXXXX15435010X20X0XX03X0170XXX8435,401X0000XX00260,080067,7501,000XX0X00XX5462,548883,9718,381 140000019625XX426,546XXXXX00009X0X20,589XX6,9880X00XXX0PlantsLive Orchids(hundreds)Imports Exports51,923 65,694XXXXX002320109XXX47,426X114,139XX00XX00XXXXX1,05600240XXX0X00XX0323XX000 X X0X 0X 290X412 0 0 010 0 0 65XX419212189XXX49,435X9,468317X01,7524962,79612,27040 910 0X XX X05,612XX0000XXX20,970X00X3000000X00XX6XX10,595X240337X30 3053 XX XX 120 923105X12,44051,392XX0XX4X00X0384102972,837 11000002 0 XX 104 0 14 01,131 0 1,4700 0 3 0 000 1,934 3,444 0 0 14,736 2,49712 0X XX XX 1,865 0X 23 0X X 09,0191630,9378,8083,40240,7712791,13728801331550Xooooo1,323 0 541 0XX000 00 0625,4576,1751,2402,344 00111,5707,3280 583,585 0 4,448 00X X X X0XX X X1,133 694 23,011 165 01,129 691 0 115004X X30X X X0 50XX23,011XSource: World Conservation Monitoring Centre.Notes: a. Includes all trade reported by members of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) through 1989.b. Reptile skins include skins of snakes, lizards, and crocodilians. c. World totals include countries not listed; regional totals include only countries listed, buttotals may not add because of rounding, d. Not a member of CITES as of October 1991.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measurement; X = not available; NA = not applicable.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.XXoXo0XX0026 0X X122 00 406362,212 0X XX X1,907 9781,635 0272 000X 95523XWorld Resources 1992-93301

20 Wildlife and HabitatTable 20.3 Management Problems at World Heritage SitesName ofAreaAFRICA {a}CameroonDjaCentral African RepManovo-Gounda-St. FlorisCote d'lvoireComoeTaiMt. Nimba (b)EthiopiaSimienGuineaMt. Nimba {b}MalawiLake MalawiMaliBandiagara {cjMauritaniaBane d'ArguinSenegalNiokolo-KobaDjoudjSeychellesAldabraVallee de MaiTanzaniaSelousSerengetiNgorongoroMt KilimanjaroTunisiaIchkeulZaireSalongaVirungaKahuzi-BiegaGarambaZambiaVictoria Falls/Mosi-oa-TunyaZimbabweMana PoolsNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA {a)CanadaCanadian Rocky Mts. Id}Kluane {b)Wood BuffaloNahanniGros MorneDinosaurCosta RicaTalamanca-La Amistad {bjGuatemalaTikal {c}HondurasRio PlatanoMexicoSianKa'anPanamaDarienUnited StatesKluane {b}YellowstoneEvergladesGrand CanyonOlympicYosemiteGreat Smoky Mts.Hawaii VolcanoesRedwoodMammoth CaveTotalSize(000 ha)20,0775261,7401,150350522X94001,200913163505,0002,30582976133,6007906004927X21,305X5,4404,480477181758558500528597IUCNProtectedAreaClassesIncludedMXIIIIJXIII, IXIIIIJXIIVIII.IIIIJXIIIIVIVIIJXVIIIJXIIIIJXIIIIIIIIIIII.XIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIJXUI.VII,VIII,IXIIIIJXIIJXIIJX5,440IIJX586 II.III.IX493 II363 IIJX308 II209 IIJX93 IIJX4221PtocoSSSPSSS~ocnSSS57%mmssCOQ-ssppmmcocoSSSmmS33%SMSScocoSSS29%ssSPPscocoSSExternalThreats36%SsssssNatural Animal Legal Manage-tOQ-43%SsspssSSThreatstoLocalCultures8%ss14%sssGrazingandDevelopmentTourism Pollution48% 16% 16%Cultivation56%SsCO CO COSSSScocoSSS29%ssssSSIllegal orOverharvest ofTrees/Wildlife Plants68% 32%SStocoSSSSSSSScocoSenS33%cocossspSPSSsstocoS19%SsspSFire Introduced Inadequate orand Plant and InsufficientThreats Species Protection menl Other52%SSssstoco COCLScocoSS24%SsPmm8%Sen43%smmcocoSS12%SSs10%PSS52%sssscoco cocoSScocoS10%sS20%Ssss19%SspSS302World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 20Table 20.3Name ofAreaSOUTH AMERICA {a}ArgentinaLos GlaciaresIguazuBrazilIguacuEcuadorGalapagosSangayPeruManuHuascaranMachu Picchu {c}ASIA {a}ChinaMt. Taishan {c}IndiaSunderbansNanda DeviManasKazirangaKeoladeoNepalSagarmathaRoyal ChitwanSri LankaSinharajaTurkeyGoreme {c}EUROPE {a}BulgariaPirinSrebarnaFranceCape GirolataPolandBialowiezaSpainGarajonayUnited KingdomHenderson {e)St. KildaGiant's CausewayYugoslaviaDurmitorPlitvice LakesSkocjan CavesIUCNProtectedThreats Grazing Illegal or Fire Introduced Inadequate orTotal Areato and Overharvest of and Plant and InsufficientSize Classes Develop- Extemal Local Culti- Trees/ Natural Animal Legal Manage-(000 ha) Included merit Tourism Pollution Threats Cultures vation Wildlife Plants Threats Species Protection ment Other4,11738% 63% 25% 63% 13% 75% 63% 25% 88% 25% 0% 63% 38%600551707672721,88134033520X1336339383OCEANIA {a}40,448AustraliaGreat Barrier Reef 34,870Kakadu {c) 1,307Tasmania Wilderness (cjWet Tropics of Queensland115932710122401165441032190Willandra Lakes {c} 600~East Coast Rain Forest Parks 165Uluru 133Lord Howe 2New ZealandFiordlandWestlandMt. CookSources:Notes:II,IVII,IVIIII,IXIIIIII,IXIIVIIIIIXVI, IXVII,IXIIIV.IXIVII,IXVIII1,082 I.II.VIII920 II,III1,252118sspCLCO40%sss45%sssss70%en enSSS50%Ssss18%Pss30%20%mmCOCL27%SSPPs20%Sss50%mmss18%ss10%World Conservation Monitoring Centre and United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.a. Percentages shown are the proportion of worjd heritage sites within a region reporting each category of threat (e.g., for Africa: 48% of the heritage sites report threatsfrom development, 16% report threats from tourism, etc), b. International heritage site. Management problems described here generally refer to problems within thiscountry's sector only. c. Mixed natural/cultural heritage site nominated on basis of human/nature interaction rather than natural features alone, d. Data are incomplete.e. Located on the Pitcairn Islands, a British dependency in the Pacific.S = significant threat, M = minor threat, P = potential threat.0 = less than half the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.S30%Sss0%30%Sen enmmm40%sss27%MSS40%MSPsss40%S9%S10%ss40%sss27%sss20%Ssen enmmm40%Ss18%Ss40%Ss10%P27%MSS60%20%9%S30%Ss70%mmmSSs0%10%S20%mmS9%M40%World Resources 1992-93303

20 Wildlife and HabitatTable 20.4 Globally Threatened Animal Species, 1990WORLDMammals (number)ThreatenedThreat- SpeciesKnown ened per 10,000Species Species km2{a)Birds (number)ThreatenedThreat- SpeciesKnown ened per 10,000Species Species km2{a[Reptiles (number)ThreatenedThreat- SpeciesKnown ened per 10,000Species Species km2{a(Amphibians (number)ThreatenedThreat- SpeciesKnown ened per 10,000Species Species km2 {a}FreshwaterFish (number)Threat-Known enedSpecies SpeciesAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaReunionRwandaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaWestern SaharaZaireZambiaZimbabweTHE AMERICASArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBermudaBoliviaBrazilCanadaCayman IslandsChileColombiaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEcuador (c)El SalvadorFrench GuianaGreenland (Denmark)GuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNetherlands AntillesNicaragua9727518715414710329792081311719822622105141265190108222188109314541937610518713661410820519013127421477166217817328326646310196773111540922819425517X121X267394197X9035820339X28012914226174198X179294399177121411910427012183121869152514713175152181253101614391011152501111111316261703096165221092521802124509251021216102101217626082352338034546521155756341821443353233608243745307526242342360431025611755154136503X 152 X 00872 12 2 X 20630 1 0 X 2 1549 6 2 158 1 0497 1 0 X 21633 54 X 11848 175 X 21103 34 X 116684962411XX221099 5 8500 3 1683 9 3311 32X 163392 3250 28 7 259 10 3630 745 3 124 1 064711 16 2 0550X 1 02 X 21836 14 3 6 10617 41 1 X 214891 X 22721 83 X 21529 62 X 10376 21 X 211,067 18 5 191 21288 75 X 00590 10 5 X 21X 92 X 10102X666640473831336691246251266146397749384771,016630X989X1,086732635927218X504X1,1771,567426X3931,665796286X1,447432628X666728X67222396117161010 171441137 21 010 21 27 575 1529 29774213 38 15426114125271065341423412362186914155642511094112353761642422843311713174148732122053352663XXX38XXXXXX000000100026XXXX02102010002XXXX0010019X170XX1146XXXXXX301XX273XXXXX15215520439X107X18046742X82383218100X34592136X204137X161387172216260121202022213113211022143030411020102448120434331622100000001017101011100000013020110702122311021313341X 1X 0X 0X 0X 0X 1X 088 0X 0X 0X 0144 069 0X 0X 0232XXX19XXXX12XX95XXXXXXXX831201246X26X9648741X3837515140X3503889X99105X572028425900000000003001000000000010000000000000000000000400000000000000000100000000000000000000000010000000000000000000000000000000000000100X26815081120XXX40013016500200XXX10020080180250901808130XX60016010000011000000010000000000000015 0XXX97140200XXX140X130X22012045X160X300X700156132XXXXXXX1,132 bXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX01140000000002800000001001000019150100000000010009800304World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 20Table 20.4PanamaParaguayPeruPuerto RicoSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesUruguayVenezuelaASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanBruneiCambodiaChinaIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesSaudi ArabiaSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamEUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaMammals (number)Threat-ThreatenedSpeciesKnown ened per 10,000Species Species217157359172008546677305XXXXXX394341479XXX188XXXXXXXX300XXX96XXXX118X273X85XXX496211394XXX3197606054Xkm2(a)137031012144229261141121522194131321561599 1121830338650915 3938652525263523423948472236225921541249742624275142289212121312111316221422110Birds (number)Threat-ThreatenedSpeciesKnown ened perl 0,000Species Species9206301,6422206703471,0903671,295XXXXXX1,1951,1781,500XXX668XXXXXXXX1,000XXX541XXXX426X774X201XX390190232342305XXX139419140142465463431134134271010138372135201715311125227181535134220825391281534187341413131518161221171916210198257 13225 8X 1682 313 18X X 18km2{a}77134244483101161259112445129511106615112108361324694311106978104658815613Reptiles (number)Threat-ThreatenedSpeciesKnown ened per 10,000Species Species21211029746131762465104682036866246X25221X 0XXX1413X 6X 7400 17X 13X 4X 0X 10086XX0X 0XX 05X 1X 12X 0360XXX197XXXX109066031993X50180 8X 113 0X 0X 1X 05 05 036 212X 03X 0X100km2 {a)111500310006142132101000002140240120202103100000010100010Amphibians (number)Threat-ThreatenedSpeciesKnown ened perl 0,000Species Species1556923526991522237183XXXXXXX181XXXX95XXXXXXXXXXXX60XXXX18X80X19XXX1452919XXX3281671555XX35 17XX108 6 2 344 236 64 5 1 24 365 1 0 250 1449 6 0001 0 13 076 21 196 15150 19 177 21 233 228 110 6 0X 31 X 176 X0 X 2U.S.S.R.357 202 765 383 144 30 34 0OCEANIAAustralia320 35 4 700 39 4 550 91 150 3FijiX 1 1 X 5 4 X 43 X 1New CaledoniaX 1 1 X 54 X 0 0 X 0New Zealand69 14 0 282 269 39X 11 0 5 30Papua New GuineaX 1 X 2570 XSolomon IslandsX 21 X 20 14 X 3 2 X 0VanuatuX 11 XX 32 3 XX 1 10 X 0Western SamoaX 1230X 0Sources: World Conservation Monitoring Centre, World Conservation Union, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and other sources.Notes: a. Number is standardized using a species area curve, b. Both fresh- and saltwater species, c. Includes the Galapagos Islands.X = not available; 0 = no species listed as threatened at present.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.0011002200100000130001100000000000000000101000000010000070km2{a}00010020000000000000100000000000000000000000000000000002010101001010000FreshwaterFish (number)KnownSpeciesXXXXXX2,640XXXXXXXXXXXXXX207XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX555XXX71XXX166587070XXXX50340bbbbbb49 b172X39X55130 b52377 bXX3,200 bXX777 bXXXXThreat-enedSpecies001000164000100257229220300005060202021012013504121320133621130213155160020000World Resources 1992-93305

20 Wildlife and HabitatTable 20.5 Rare and Threatened Plants, 1991WORLDNumberof PlantTaxaEndemicFlora asPercentageof TotalNumber ofRare andThreatenedPlant TaxaRare andThreatenedPlant Taxaper 1,000ExistingTaxaRare andThreatenedPlant Taxaper 10,000SquareKilometers {a}Red DataBook or UstNumberofBotanicalGardens (b)1,553Members ofBGCI(number) (b)316AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEquatorial GuineaBiokoPagulaEgyptEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaPrincipeReunionRwandaSao TomeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaWestern SaharaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICAAntigua and BarbudaBahamasBermudaBarbadosBelizeBritish Virgin IslandsCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominicaEl SalvadorGrenadaGuadeloupeGuatemalaHispaniolaHondurasJamaicaMartiniqueMexicoMontserratNicaraguaPanama3,139-3,1505,0002,0002,600-2,8001,0962,5008,0006593,6001,6004164,0003,660534X1,1502082,0856,2838,0005303,600X1,0006,5001,591X1,600-1,80010,000-12,0003,6001,6001,100800-9003,500-3,6005,5003,1591,1784,6143147202,1506012,1002742,4803,00023,0003,2002,71510,0002,302 f2,120-2,2005,00030011,0004,6005,428 g724 f1,3501657003,240X3,2208,0007,0001,6002,500X2,800 f8,0005,0005,0003,582X20,000X5,0008,000-9,000825117XX2144X33222XX4848221188 dX4X59 d88021X3318411 dX51130X18115317802X111X1X2952191015XXX50119 dX4515X330X17X11514419340074101434703X8293448003436014471581936115324019484181919900327312511,14592515802611031961231413811345687462244143050488121,11117234446421-200920971196X7104571009X0224X32-3616-191793267-30054-55156123138001526651750391601220001811785112X4571253910X5380102X56X1438-4324411002110351222X14 c16 c2092701213038501150293141955204022 e15602 e12240613235121360114010293238032941266396146191225139022825196532176YesNoYesYesNoYesYesNoNoNoNoNoNoNoXNoNoYesNoNoNoYesNoNoYesNoYesYesNoNoNoNoYesYesNoNoYesYesNoYesNoNoNoNoNoNoYesYesYesYesNoYesNoNoYesNoYesNoYesNoNoIPYesYesNoYesNoYesNoYesYesIPNoYesYesYesNoNoNo82311001210000100XX51103005001130022210504103110171021120204355001211182811121124330011310000001000000000010101000000130020010102000000110011000202790000017231101101006000306World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 20Table 20.5Saint LuciaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesHawaiiPuerto RicoVirgin islandsSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileJuan FernandezColombiaEcuadorGalapagos IslandsFrench GuianaGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuelaASIAAfghanistanBangladeshBhutanBorneoBruneiCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaAndaman and Nicobar IslandsIndonesiaIrian JayaJavaKalimantanLesser Sunda IslandsMoluccasSulawesiSumatraIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanBonin IslandsJordanKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanon {1}MalaysiaPeninsular MalaysiaSabahSarawakMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab Rep {1}TaiwanThailandTurkeyViet NamYemenSocotraEUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceCorsica(Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)Numberof PlantTaxaXX2,28120,000 h1,1453,000X9,00015,000-18,00055,0005,50014745,00010,000-20,000543 g6,000-8,0006,000-8,0007,000-8,00020,0004,500X15,000-20,0003,0005,000 h5,00010,000-15,000X iX30,0002,00015,0002,270 hXx i4,600X IX3,0005,0008,000-10,0007,0002,9372,3174,0223692,2002,838 k350X3,000X8,500X iX i7,000 h6,500 h1,1005,500-6,0008,9003,5002,0303,7003,0004,30012,00010,1508,0001,0001,7006803,100-3,3002,900-3,1001,600-1,8003,500-3,6502,600-2,7501,0001,150-1,4504,300-4,4502,516 nEndemic Number ofFlora as Rare andPercentage Threatenedof Total Plant TaxaX312 d449X2,47690 X8X851025-30 157XX3124050X1929633 316XXXX 1211304768XXXX2925-30X10-1540-50X iX10X3010Xx jXX i12XX1220123536811105266473811841441,349120X23923610121692173739346874183X1314 k0136XX11XXX318X i43X i10852352152862510623 d1X1623209111340 94X 63321035-101,9523881232 13211021102576251189297711235Rare andThreatenedPlant Taxaper 1,000ExistingTaxaXX2124X28X17243565376-122396-89-1121815X5-71113-5XX28229053XX20XX439-120117171225Rare andThreatenedPlant Taxaper 10,000SquareKilometers (a)8125261X88312572646X6840X232547127424134X4748845206128 cXX39 c10 cXX6 c26 c0131603X2X37XX33211208564225192491119423-258-96-724-251175-625-26207X60116X136 c22 c47 c6912350401135132 c1746612301X1454128c4013423037 cRed DataBook or ListNoNoYesYesYesYesYesNoNoNoYesYesIPNoYesYesNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoYesNoYesYesXXNoXNoNoNoNoNoNoYesIPYesNoYesNoNoYesXNoNoNoYes mIPNoIPYes mIPNoYes mNoYesYesYesYes iNoNoNoXYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNumberofBotanicalGardens {b(011Members ofBGCI(number) (b)010247 47194160067 19913111 4914013 42X22 1001151172710200006606805XXXXXXX317590050009XXX2105921502CJl6200X533111159347801002370000004070400000000030000000500001002015010100001190030166023180World Resources 1992-93307

20 Wildlife and HabitatTable 20.5 Rare and Threatened Plants, 1991 (continued)Rare andThreatenedRare andThreatenedNumberof PlantTaxaEndemicFlora asPercentageof TotalNumber ofRare andThreatenedPlant TaxaPlant Taxaper 1,000ExistingTaxaPlant Taxaper 10,000SquareKilometers {a}Red DataBook or ListNumberofBotanicalGardens (b)Members ofBGCI(number) (b)Germany (Fed Rep)2,47611666Yes59 12(Dem Rep)1,84211276Yes14Greece5,00020 531106 227Yes4Hungary2,4001 21 9 10 No17Iceland4701241Yes2X300IrelandItaly1,000-1,1504,750-4,9000114151431-32249YesYes848510Sicily2,250-2,450248 20-2135 c NoX0Luxembourg1,00002 23 c IP00Sardinia1,900-2,00023417-1825 c NoX0Malta90004 412 Yes10Netherlands1,4000 75545Yes39 5Norway1,600-1,80011127-8Yes63Poland2,250-2,450167Yes251Portugal2,400-2,6004-5 9035-3843 Yes61Azores60093660XXYes32Madeira Islands760171 114150No20Romania3,300-3,4006820-2124Yes100Spain4,750-4,9001544992-95124Yes8 5Balearic Islands1,250-1,4506-8 6948-5587 c Yes1 0Canary Islands2,000X1 431 216 XYes3 1Gibraltar5871 212 c No1 0Sweden1,600-1,8001 95-6 3Yes93Switzerland2,600-2,7501 19 7 12Yes229United Kingdom1,700-1,85012212-138Yes60 31Ascension Island2544 113440 52 c YesX0 0000Channel Islands1,800 f0211 c YesSaint Helena3201649153154Yes1Tristan da Cunha Islands74601824383 c No0Yugoslavia4,750-4,9003-419139-4066No320Australia18,00080 2,133119 239 YesCampbell Island223 g1514XYesChristmas Island280 g145059YesFiji1,500 g 40-50 251720NoGuam331 gX 123631No60XX1X22XX0XU.S.S.R.21,00075312542Yes1601OCEANIA85 30Kermadec Island195 g12946X YesXXLord Howe Island219 g33 1987X YesXXMarquesas Islands247 gX62251XYes00New Caledonia3,25076169 520 138No00New Guinea11,00090X XNoX0New Zealand2,0008125412786YesNorfolk Island177 g2948271 297YesPapua New GuineaX j55 683 X1 192 NoSolomon Islands2,150X No17141Sources: World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Botanic Gardens Conservation International, The Europa World Yearbook 1990, and Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations.Notes: a. Per unit area number is standardized using a species area curve, b. BGCI = Botanic Gardens Conservation International. World and regional totalsinclude countries not listed, c. Calculated using total land area (including inland water bodies) instead of land area alone, d. Number of endemic taxa(includes species, subspecies, and varieties), e. Number refers to both Sao Tome and Principe, f. Number of vascular taxa (includes species, subspecies,and varieties), g. Number of seed plants, h. Number of flowering plants, i. Number included under Borneo, j. Number included under New Guinea.k. Refers to entire Korean peninsula. I. Size of flora and endemicity data refer to both Syrian Arab Rep and Lebanon, m. Preliminary, n. Number ofendemic vascular plant species.Data for mainland countries do not include island states or territories.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available; IP = in preparation as of September 1991.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.308World Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 20Table 20.6 Debt-for-Nature SwapsAFRICAPurchaser/FundraiserDateFace Valueof Debt (a)CostConservationFundsGenerated (b)Madagascar WWF Total $3,030,476 To utilize conservation, education, and sustainable7/89 Transaction 1 $2,111,112 $950 000 $2,111,112 development methods in 30 designated sites and train8/90 Transaction 2 $919,364 $445,891 $919,363 600 conservation agents.Cl Total $5,000,000 To provide ecosystem management programs for four1/91 Transaction 1 $118,754 $59,377 $118,754 protected areas-Zahameana, Midongy-Sud, Manongarivo,and Namoroko Reserves; to develop a university-leveltraining and education program; to fund conservationbased development; to create a trust fund.Zambia WWF Total $2,270,000 $454,000 $2,270,000 To help conserve and manage the Kafue Flats andBangweulu Basin wetlands; to support conservationeducation activities; to alleviate soil erosion andhabitat degradation; to protect rhino and elephant populations;to strengthen local conservation institutions.LATIN AMERICABolivia Cl 8/87 Total $650,000 $100,000Purpose$250,000 To establish a local currency endowment fund to payfor the operating costs of managing the Beni BiosphereReserve; to create three conservation and sustainableuseareas totaling 1.5 million hectares adjacent to the Beni.Costa Rica FPN {c} 2/88 Total $5,400,000 $918,000 $4,050,000 To expand, manage, and protect three of Costa Rica'snational parks: Guanacaste, Monteverde (C.F.), andCorcovado. The program in Guanacaste will purchase andannex land located between existing parks and reserves.Monteverde will receive administrative support.the Netherlands 7/88Total $33,000,000 $5,000,000 $9,900,000 To finance forestry development activities with theobjective of protecting and managing natural resources;to fund ongoing programs in forestry and institutionalstrengthening.TNC1/89Total $5,600,000 $784,000 $1,680,000 To help meet management costs and land purchases atfour parks/reserves. To fund five other projects andorganizations involved in park and species protection.Sweden4/89Total $24,500,000 $3,500,000 $17,100,000 To complete the management endowment and infrastructureof Quanacasle National Park; to restore the habitat ofthis park.Sweden/WWF/TNC 3/90Total $10,753,631 $1,953,473 $9,602,904 To support land compensation payments of La AmistadRegional Conservation Unit; to fund education, protection,research, ecotourism, and other management programs;to set up a trust fund structure for the NationalBiodiversity Institute (INBio).Rainforest Alliance 1/91Total $600,000 $360,000 $540,000 To purchase an additional 2,023 hectares of land forMCL/TNC(CABEI debt)Monteverde Cloud Forest Reserve and to improve localprotection.Dominican PRCTATNC3/90Total $582,000 $116,400 $582,000 To support the protection and reforestation of twoRepublicwatersheds; to establish a new nature reserve and fundstaff and equipment; to support community outreach forIsla Cabritos National Park.EcuadorGuatemalaJamaicaMexicoASIAPhilippinesEUROPEPolandTOTAL TO DATESources:Notes:WWF/TNC/MBGTNCTNC/USAID/PRCTClWWFWWF12/874/8910/9110/912/918/911/898/901/90TotalTransaction 1Transaction 2TotalTotalTransaction 1TotalTransaction 1Transaction 2TotalTransaction 1Transaction 2Total$10,000,000$1,000,000$9,000,000$100,000(CABEI debt)$600,000$437,000$4,000,000$250,000$250,000$2,000,000$390,000$900,000$50,000$98,881,860 {d($354,000$1,068,750$75,000$300,000$182,000Debt donation$200,000$438,750$11,500$17,271,141$1,000,000$9,000,000$90,000$437,000$250,000$250,000$390,000$900,000$50,000$61,491,133To support management plans for protected areas; todevelop park infrastructure; to identify and acquiresmall nature reserves; to fund species inventoriesthrough a Conservation Data Center. Priority targetareas are six Andean and Amazonian national parks.To support Sierra de las Minas Biosphere Reserve throughland acquisition and protection.To fund and protect Montego Marine Park, Blue Mountain/John Crow Mountain.To fund ecosystem conservation data centers to assessthe distribution, status, and conservation priority ofMexico's key species and habitats; to fund communicationand education campaigns on the national and grassrootslevel.To provide for management plans, community developmentwork in buffer zones, and infrastructure for four parks;to support research and environmental education activities,and training for community-level resource managers.To support project study on the Vistula River Basinprogram.Conservation International, World Wildlife Fund, The Nature Conservancy, and other sources.a. In some swaps the agreed-upon amount of debt is swapped through several transactions over a period of time. This column identifies the totalagreed-upon sum, including pending transactions, and which transactions have been approved, b. In the case of bonds, this figure does not includeinterest earned over the life of the bonds, c. Many organizations contributed to this deal including: WWF, Cl, TNC, The Pew Charitable Trust,Jessie Smith Noyes Foundation, Asociacion Ecologica La Pacifica, John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Swedish Society for theConservation of Nature, W. Alton Jones Foundation, Organization for Tropical Studies, d. Includes only approved transactions.Cl = Conservation International, MCL = Monteverde Conservation League, TNC = The Nature Conservancy, CABEI = Central American Bank forEconomic Integration, WWF = World Wildlife Fund, PRCT = Puerto Rican Conservation Trust, MGB = Missouri Botanical Garden,FPN = National Parks Foundation of Costa Rica. All figures are in US$.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.World Resources 1992-93309

20 Wildlife and HabitatSources and Technical NotesTable 20.1 National and InternationalProtection of NaturalAreas, 1990Sources: Protected Areas Data Unit of theWorld Conservation Monitoring Centre(WCMC), unpublished data (WCMC, Cambridge,United Kingdom, September 1991);heritage site numbers only: United NationsEducational, Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO), List of Properties Includedin the World Heritage List (UNESCO-ICOMOS Documentation Centre, Paris, December1990).National protection systems combine naturalareas in five World Conservation Union(IUCN) management categories (areas areat least 1,000 hectares). Totally protected areasare maintained in a natural state and areclosed to extractive uses. They encompassthe following three management categories:• Category I. Scientific reserves and strict naturereserves possess outstanding, representativeecosystems. Public access is generallylimited, with only scientific research and educationaluse permitted.• Category II. National parks and provincialparks are relatively large areas of nationalor international significance not materiallyaltered by humans. Visitors may use themfor recreation and study.• Category III. Natural monuments and naturallandmarks contain unique geological formations,special animals or plants, or unusualhabitats.Partially protected areas are areas that maybe managed for specific uses, such as recreationor tourism, or areas that provide optimumconditions for certain species orcommunities of wildlife. Some extractiveuse within these areas is allowed. They encompasstwo management categories:• Category IV. Managed nature reserves andwildlife sanctuaries are protected for specificpurposes, such as conservation of a significantplant or animal species.• Category V. Protected landscapes and seascapesmay be entirely natural or may includecultural landscapes (e.g., scenicallyattractive agricultural areas).Marine and coastal protected areas only referto all protected areas with littoral, coral, island,marine, or estuarine components. Thearea given is the whole protected area.The figures in Table 20.1 do not includelocally or provincially protected sites, privatelyowned areas, or areas managed primarilyfor the extraction of natural resources.National lists usually include sitesthat are listed under international protectionsystems.Biosphere reserves are representative of terrestrialand coastal environments that havebeen internationally recognized under theMan and the Biosphere Programme of theUnited Nations Educational, Scientific, andCultural Organization. They have been selectedfor their value to conservation andare intended to foster the scientific knowledge,skills, and human values necessary tosupport sustainable development. Each reservemust contain a diverse, natural ecosystemof a specific biogeographicalprovince, large enough to be an effectiveconservation unit. For further details, referto M. Udvardy, A Classification of the BiogeographicalProvinces of the World (IUCN,Morges, Switzerland, 1975), and to WorldResources 1986, Chapter 6. Each reserve alsomust include a minimally disturbed corearea for conservation and research and maybe surrounded by buffer zones where traditionalland uses, experimental ecosystem research,and ecosystem rehabilitation maybe permitted.Number of natural world heritage sites representsareas of "outstanding universal value"so called either for their natural features, fortheir cultural value, or for both natural andcultural values. The table includes only naturaland mixed natural and cultural sites.Any party to the World Heritage Conventionmay nominate natural sites that containexamples of a major stage of the earth's evolutionaryhistory; a significant ongoing geologicalprocess; a unique or superlativenatural phenomenon, formation, or feature;or habitat for threatened species. Guineaand Cote d'lvoire share one world heritagesite, as do Zambia and Zimbabwe, Canadaand the United States, and Costa Rica andPanama. These sites, referred to as internationalheritage sites, are counted only oncein continental and world totals.Any party to the Convention on Wetlandsof International Importance Especiallyas Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar, Iran,1971) who agrees to respect the site's integrityand to establish wetland reserves, candesignate wetlands of international importance.Because categories overlap, the total numberof protected sites is less than the sum ofall the categories.Table 20.2 Trade in Wildlife andWildlife Products Reported byCITES, 1988Source: World Conservation MonitoringCentre (WCMC), unpublished data(WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom, September1991).CITES members agree to prohibit commercialinternational trade in endangeredspecies and to closely monitor trade in speciesthat may become depleted by trade.Species are listed in the appendixes toCITES on the basis of the degree of rarityand of threat from trade. Trade is prohibitedfor species in Appendix I (a list of speciesthreatened with extinction) and isregulated for species in Appendix II (a listof species not yet threatened but whichcould become endangered if trade is notcontrolled). Parties to the Convention are requiredto submit annual reports, includingtrade records, to the CITES Secretariat inSwitzerland. WCMC compiles these datafrom those reports. Figures refer primarilyto legal trade, though illegal trade is includedwhen known. (For a listing of CITESmember states and signatories, see Chapter25, "Policies and Institutions," Table 25.1.)CITES reporting requirement met refers tothe percentage of years for which a countryhas submitted an annual report to theCITES Secretariat since it became a party tothe Convention, through 1989. Countriesthat had ratified the CITES by October 30,1991, are listed as members.Live primates include all species of monkeys,apes, and prosimions.Cat skins include skins of all species ofFelidae, excluding a small number of skinsreported only by weight or length.Live parrots include all psittacine species(e.g., parrots, macaws, cockatoos) exceptthe budgerigar and the cockatiel.Reptile skins include whole skins, reportedby number, of all crocodilians and manycommonly traded lizard and snake species.Live cacti include wild and artificiallypropagated Cactaceae plants.Live orchids include wild and artificiallypropagated Orchidaceae plants.This table shows net trade in wild andcaptive bred species. The totals can be overestimatesof the actual number of specimenslegally traded because the samespecimen could be imported and reexportedby a number of countries in a singleyear. However, the impact of internationaltrade on a particular species can be greaterthan the numbers reported because of mortality(during capture or collection, transit,and quarantine), illegal trade, trade to orfrom countries that are not CITES members,and omission of domestic trade data.Ivory trade is currently prohibited. For informationon 1988 ivory trade, see World Resources1990-91, Table 20.3.Table 20.3 Management Problemsat World Heritage SitesSources: Protected Areas Data Unit(PADU) of the World Conservation MonitoringCentre (WCMC), World Heritage atRisk unpublished draft report (WCMC,Cambridge, United Kingdom, November1990); reference to parks and reserves encompassedby heritage sites: World ConservationUnion (IUCN), 1990 United NationsList of National Parks and Protected Areas(IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge,United Kingdom, 1990); total heritagesite numbers (in technical note): JimThorsell, Senior Advisor, Natural Heritage,IUCN, September 25,1991 (personal communication);natural vs. natural/culturallistings: United Nations Educational, Scientificand Cultural Organization (UNESCO),List of Properties Included in the World HeritageList (UNESCO- ICOMOS DocumentationCentre, Paris, December 1990).The 337 world heritage sites establishedas of January 1991 are areas of "outstandinguniversal value," inscribed either for theirnatural features, for their cultural value, orfor both natural and cultural values. Recrea-310Worid Resources 1992-93

Wildlife and Habitat 20tional, educational, and scientific activitiesare generally permitted. Cultivation, grazing,settlements, mining, and other commercialactivities are allowed within specificzones of some sites on a limited basis. Thescope of activities permitted is indicated bythe types of IUCN protected areas includedwithin individual heritage site boundaries(see below).Management problems reported here arebased on all PADU information sheets fornatural or natural/cultural sites availableas of November 1990 (83 sites, or 90 percentof the 92 site total reported in Table 20.1).These standard format sheets are compiledby PADU on the basis of reviews, reports,and management plans provided by relevantcountry authorities. Threats listed byPADU are both those applying to protectedarea values and those applying to naturalheritage values (for example, poachingwould be listed at a heritage site inscribedfor outstanding geological formations eventhough this activity does not affect its heritagevalues). Because they are compiledfrom a variety of sources and rely to a greatextent on self-reporting, information sheetsvary in quality and detail. Conditions describeddate as far back as 1986 for somesites. For these reasons, readers should becautious in comparing data between sites.All activities described under the "ManagementProblems" section of each PADUinformation sheet were assigned to a managementproblem category, as describedbelow. Threats were considered potential ifthe activity described had yet to take place.Threats were considered minor if they weredescribed as a "minor" or "slight" threat, ifthe activity described was "almost under"control, or if associated problems fromthese activities were described as "few" or"negligible." All other threats describedwere classed as significant.The 13 management problem categoriespresented here are based on a broaderrange of categories described in the draftWorld Heritage at Risk. They were selectedas best representing the root causes of thefull range of threats described in the PADUinformation sheets for each site. For example,rather than listing erosion resultingfrom overgrazing at a site as both a "grazing"and "erosion" problem, the former categoryhas been chosen as best describingthis type of management problem.In some instances, one activity describedin an information sheet constitutes severalmanagement problems.IUCN protected area classes included describessome of the types of protected areasincluded within the boundaries of the heritagesite. For descriptions of categories I-V,and biosphere reserves (category IX), refer tothe Technical Notes for Table 20.1. IUCN categoriesVI-VTII refer to areas where limitedresource use is permitted, as described below:• Category VI. Resource reserves/interimconservation units are undeveloped regionswhere access is restricted to "ongoingecologically sound activities." This categoryis established for areas where governmentswant to control development, orareas where protective legislation has beenestablished, but not yet implemented.• Category VII. Natural biotic areas/anthropologicalreserves are areas where use islimited to traditional activities by local cultures.• Category VIII. Multiple use managementareas/managed resource areas are government-ownedareas managed for recreation,grazing, and sustainable use of natural resources.A limited amount of land that hasbeen settled and otherwise "altered by humans"may be included.Management problems consist of activitiesthat are either negatively affecting aprotected area or natural heritage values orthat are occurring in violation of laws protectingprotected areas within the site, orthe site as a whole.Development includes all development occurringwithin the heritage site, such asmining (oil and natural gas drilling, peatcutting, and quarrying for minerals), waterdevelopment projects, public and loggingroads, settlements, military bases, ski areas,railroads, tourist accommodations, andother infrastructure not directly related tothe housing of researchers and protectedarea staff. Mining and water developmentprojects occurring outside the site are includedunder this category if they affectprotected area ecosystems within the site.Tourism includes the negative effectsfrom recreational and tourism-related activitiesoccurring within the site.Pollution encompasses air and water pollution,noise pollution, and littering.External threats include all development(except water projects and mining), logging,agriculture, hunting, and other activitiesin areas outside the heritage site thatare having an adverse effect on the site.Sites where there is a stated risk of a growingpopulation encroaching onto protectedlands are also considered to be threatenedby external causes.Threats to local cultures come from activitiesadversely affecting resident indigenouscultures, and threats to archaeological remainswithin these sites.Grazing and cultivation encompasses illegalor problem cultivation and grazing bydomestic animals within the heritage site.Illegal or overharvest of wildlife includespoaching or overharvest of all nonplant species.Illegal or overharvest of trees/plants includesillegal cutting or vegetation removal, andcutting/vegetation removal that either exceedsnatural replacement or has other negativeeffects on the ecosystem.Fire and natural threats consist of humancausedfires, natural fires, drought and vulnerabilityto natural catastrophes, andeffects of overbrowsing by elephants.Introduced plant and animal species meansthe presence of exotic plants and animals,as well as feral livestock.Inadequate or insufficient legal protection encompassesthreats to protected area integrityfrom land claims, the temporary cedingof land to logging companies, or sitesjudged not large enough or with inadequatelegal status to protect vital componentsof an ecosystem, or to ensureprotection of key species within the heritagesite. Inadequate or insufficient managementincludes insufficient staffing; lack offunding or equipment; poor staff morale; aninadequate management plan for the area;poor coordination between agencies responsiblefor managing the site; conflicts betweenmanagement and local communities, and/orneed for local extension; and the periodic attackson people by wild animals.Other consists of war and civil unrest; unspecifiedproblems with soil degradationand erosion; honey gathering; risk of diseaseand other threats to livestock in areasadjacent to park; fish stocking; effects onblack bear behavior; vandalism; alterationof marginal areas; ice collection; lack ofwater; siltation; isolation of forest patchesin the ecosystem; and unspecified loss ofspecies and declining populations.Table 20.4 Globally ThreatenedAnimal Species, 1990Sources: International Union for Conservationof Nature and Natural Resources(IUCN), The IUCH Mammal Red Data Book,Part I (IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 1982); InternationalCouncil for Bird Preservation(ICBP)/IUCN, Threatened Birds of Africa andRelated Islands (ICBP/IUCN, Cambridge,United Kingdom, 1985); World ConservationMonitoring Centre (WCMC), series ofreports on Conservation of Biological Diversity(for some data on Botswana, Coted'lvoire, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya,Nigeria, Senegal, India, Myanmar, and thePhilippines) (WCMC, Cambridge, 1988 and1989); unpublished data (WCMC, Cambridge,United Kingdom, 1991).Sub-Saharan Africa (all species known):Richard Adams, Simon Stuart, IUCN,Biodiversity in Sub-Saharan Africa and Its Islands(IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 1990);North Africa (bird species known): JefferyA. Sayer, Simon Stuart, IUCN, EnvironmentalConservation, Vol. 15, No. 3 (Autumn1988); China and Indonesia (mammal andbird species known): Regional PhysicalPlanning Programme for Transmigration,The Land Resources of Indonesia: A NationalOverview (Department of Transmigration,Jakarta, Indonesia, 1990); Mexico: ConservationInternational (CI), Mexico's Living Endowment:An Overview of Biological Diversity(CI, n.p., April 1989); Panama (bird speciesknown): James R. Karr, Acting Director,Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,September 25,1987 (personal communication);Canada, United States including Caribbeanand Pacific islands, Europe, Turkey,Japan, and New Zealand (all speciesknown), and Australia (birds, reptile, fish,and amphibian species known): Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD), OECD Environmental DataCompendium 1991 (OECD, Paris, 1991); VietNam: Vo Quy, "Viet Nam's Ecological SituationToday," ESCAP Environment News,Vol. 6, No. 4 (October-December 1988);Czechoslovakia (bird species known):CSSR Red Data Book, 1988; U.S.S.R.: A.V.Yablokov, Ostroumov, Okhrana ZhivoiPrirody (The Conservation of Living Nature)(Moscow, 1983).World Resources 1992-93311

20 Wildlife and HabitatThe World Conservation Union classifiesthreatened and endangered species in sixcategories:• Endangered. "Taxa in danger of extinctionand whose survival is unlikely if the causalfactors continue operating."• Vulnerable. "Taxa believed likely to moveinto the Endangered category in the near futureif the causal factors continue operating."• Rare. "Taxa with world populations thatare not at present Endangered or Vulnerable,but are at risk."• Indeterminate. "Taxa known to be Endangered,Vulnerable, or Rare but where thereis not enough information to say which ofthe three categories is appropriate."• Out of Danger. "Taxa formerly included inone of the above categories, but which arenow considered relatively secure becauseeffective conservation measures have beentaken or the previous threat to their survivalhas been removed."• Insufficiently Known. "Taxa that are suspectedbut not definitely known to belongto any of the above categories."The number of threatened species listedfor all countries includes full species that areendangered, vulnerable, rare, indeterminate,and insufficiently known, but excludes introducedspecies or those known to be extinct.The total number of species includes introductions.Data on mammals exclude cetaceans(whales and porpoises). Threatenedbird species are listed for countries includedwithin their breeding and/or winteringranges. Threatened marine turtles and marinefish are excluded from country totals.Endangered fish species numbers do not includeapproximately 250 haplochromineand 2 tilapiine species of Lake Victoria cichlids,since the ranges of these species are undetermined.Threatened species per 10,000 km 2provides a relative estimate for comparingnumbers of threatened species betweencountries of differing size. Because the relationshipbetween area and species numberis nonlinear (as increasingly large areas aresampled, the number of new species locateddecreases), a species-area curve has beenused to standardize these species numbers.The curve predicts how many threatenedspecies a country would have, given its currentnumber of threatened species, if it wasa uniform 10,000 square kilometers. It is calculatedusing the formula: S = cA z where S= the number of endangered species, A =area, and c and z are constants. The slope ofthe species-area curve is determined by theconstant z, which is approximately 0.33 forlarge areas containing many habitats. Thisconstant is based on data from previousstudies of species-area relationships. In reality,the constant z would differ among regionsand countries, because of differencesin species' range size (which tends to besmaller in the tropics) and differences in varietiesof habitats present. A tropical countrywith a broad variety of habitats wouldbe expected to have a steeper species-areacurve than a temperate, homogenous countrybecause one would predict a greaternumber of both species and threatened speciesper unit area. Species-area curves arealso steeper for islands than for mainlandcountries. At present, there are insufficientregional data to estimate separate slopes foreach country.Table 20.5 Rare and ThreatenedPlants, 1991Sources: Number of plant taxa: World ConservationMonitoring Centre (WCMC),Threatened Plants Unit (TPU), unpublisheddata (WCMC, United Kingdom, September1991). Land area data: Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations(FAO), unpublished data (Agrostat PC,FAO, Rome, 1991); Europa World Yearbook1990 (Europa Publications Limited, London,1990). Numbers of botanical gardens:Botanic Gardens Conservation International(BGCI), unpublished information(BGCI, Kew, United Kingdom, September1991); C.A. Heywood, V.H. Heywood, andP.S. Wyse Jackson, 2990 International Directoryof Botanical Gardens, 5th Ed., (Koeltz ScientificBooks, Koenigstein, Germany, 1991).Unless otherwise noted, the Number ofplant taxa refers to the number of native vascularplant species found in the country.Endemic flora as percentage of total includesplants that occur only in a single geopoliticalarea or island group.The number of rare and threatened planttaxa includes all plants classified as Endangered,Vulnerable, Rare, or Indeterminate.See the Technical Note for Table 20.4.Most plant data were compiled byWCMC from the floristic literature, nationalRed Data Books, national lists of threatenedspecies, scientific journals, and papers.Red Data Books, prepared for over 70 countriesor islands, generally use the IUCN classificationsystem to indicate the degree ofthreats to individual species of endemicand nonendemic plants.Table 20.5 usually lists the total recordedspecies, but it sometimes includes estimates.Figures are not comparable betweencountries because taxonomic concepts andthe extent of knowledge vary. For additionalinformation, see Stephen D. Davis, etal., Plants in Danger: What Do We Know?(IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 1986).Rare and threatened plant taxa per 10,000km 2 provides a relative estimate for comparingnumbers of threatened plant taxa betweencountries of differing size. Refer tothe Technical Notes for Table 20.4.Number of botanical gardens shows thenumber of gardens that are known to existin the world and members of BGCI showswhich of these were members of BotanicGardens Conservation International at theend of August 1991. BGCI, which has recordsof approximately 60,000 rare plants incultivation, estimates that botanical gardensthroughout the world contain about90,000 plant taxa.Table 20.6SwapsDebt-for-NatureSources: World Wide Fund for Nature(WWF); Conservation International (CI);The Nature Conservancy (TNC); Conveniosobre cooperacion financiera entre el gobierno deCosta Rica y el gobierno de los paises bajos conel fin de apoyar el desarrollo forestal, July 1988(financial agreement); Swedish EmbassyCompletion of the purchase of $24.5 millionworth of Costa Rican commercial foreign debt,May 6,1989 (press release). This table listsofficially sanctioned and funded debt-fornatureswaps as of November 1991.Debt-for-nature swaps involve the purchaseof developing country debt at a discountedvalue in the secondary debt market,and the subsequent exchange of the foreigndebt in return for a newly created obligationon the part of the debtor nation. Thepayments on the new obligation are madein domestic currency to fund an agreeduponconservation program.Debt-for-nature swaps are generally favorablefor all parties involved. First, the developingcountry services a smaller amountof domestic debt. Instead of having to pay aforeign source in hard currency, local currencyis used for investment inside thecountry for nature conservation. The localconservation agencies receive substantialfunds for natural resource conservation.The funds of the conservation organizationthat purchased the debt from the lending institutionare in effect converted at a more favorableexchange rate. And the lendinginstitution reduces the amount of doubtfulloans on its books.Since 1987, debt-for-nature swaps havegenerated more than $60 million for conservationefforts while relieving close to $100million in foreign debt. As of November1991,17 such swaps and 21 transactionshave taken place in Bolivia, Costa Rica, theDominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala,Jamaica, Madagascar, Mexico, the Philippines,Poland, and Zambia.Country refers to the less-developed countrythat has agreed to put local currency towardenvironmental protection in exchangefor a portion of its foreign debt.Purchaser/fundraiser refers to the conservationorganization(s) or government that acquiredthe less-developed country's debton the secondary market and exchanged itfor money to be put toward environmentalprotection in the developing country.Date is the date that the actual transactionfor the debt-for-nature swap was approved.Face value of debt refers to the contractedamount of debt that the less-developed nationowed to the commercial bank. In someswaps, the agreed-upon amount of debt isswapped through several transactions overa period of time. This column identifies thetotal agreed-upon sum, including pendingtransactions, and which transactions havebeen approved.Cost is the price the conservation organization(s)or government paid for the debt.Conservation funds generated refers to themoney that the less-developed country hasagreed to allocate to local environmentalprotection, in exchange for its foreign debt.Purpose describes types of projects thatthe conservation funds are supporting.312World Resources 1992-93

21. Energy and MaterialsThe world's production of commercial energy (seeTable 21.1) has grown by 14 percent in the past decade.Liquid fuels are still the dominant commercialfuel, accounting for 42 percent of the world's commercialenergy production. At 130 exajoules (equivalent tothe energy content of 21.2 billion barrels of oil), 1989production was only 4 percent lower than its all timehigh in 1979. Gaseous fuel production grew faster thanany other fossil fuel during the same period. Of allcommercial energy sources, primary electricity productionincreased the most (73 percent) from 1979 to 1989,mainly a result of expanding nuclear power generation.In 1989, industrialized countries produced 95 percentof the world's nuclear and 66 percent of itshydroelectric energy.Table 21.2 presents two indicators of energy use:commercial energy consumption and energy requirementsin conventional fuel equivalent. Commercial energyconsumption is defined as the apparent consumptionof commercial fuels using the heat value ofelectricity (100 percent efficiency) as a conversion forprimary electricity. Energy requirements in conventionalfuel equivalent include not only commercial energyconsumption but also consumption of traditionalfuels (fuelwood, animal and vegetal waste, and charcoal).In calculating conventional fuel equivalent, primaryelectricity is valued on a fossil-fuel-avoided basisrather than an energy-output basis.Table 21.2 shows the wide disparities in energy consumptionbetween regions and countries. Each personin the industrialized world consumed as much commercialenergy as 10 people in the developing world.Industrialized countries used 2.8 times as much commercialenergy as developing countries. Even if estimatesfor the use of traditional fuels are included, theenergy requirements of industrialized countries are 2.4times greater than those of developing countries.The global consumption of traditional fuels is estimatedat 20 exajoules-equivalent to the total U.S. coalproduction in 1989. Such a comparison, however, underestimatesthe critical role that traditional fuels playfor the great majority of people living in developingcountries. For example, most countries in sub-SaharanAfrica are completely dependent on imports for theircommercial fuels, and over 70 percent of their total energyrequirements usually come from traditionalfuels.Table 21.2 presents a ratio of the amount of energyconsumed for each dollar of gross national product,which is defined as energy intensity. A decline in nationalenergy intensity indicates energy efficiency improvements,or a structural shift to a less energy-intensiveeconomy (e.g., a more service-based economy), ora combination of the two. For most industrializedcountries and many developing countries, energy intensitieshave declined over the past decade. Japanand most countries of the European Community areamong the industrialized countries with the world'slowest energy intensities. In comparison, energy intensitiesare still much higher for the majority of CentralEuropean countries, and slightly higher for most developingcountries.Table 21.3 shows the relative shares of a country'stotal commercial energy consumption used by eachmajor economic sector. Industry is the primary consumerof commercial energy in most European andAsian countries. Transportation accounts for the largestshare in the majority of countries on the Americanand African continents. Data in Table 21.3 should beinterpreted with care, because countries use differentsectoral definitions.With the development of industrialized economies,the quantities of wastes, both in the industrial and theconsumer sector, have increased steadily. A comparisonof municipal waste generation (see Table 21.4)shows the United States as the biggest waste generatorin the Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD), generating 864 kilograms perperson per year. Most municipalities in OECD membercountries provide waste collection services to thewhole population and are responsible for waste disposal.The United States and the countries of the EuropeanCommunity discard about 60 and 70 percent,respectively, of their municipal waste in landfills,whereas Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland incineratemore than 50 percent of their municipal waste. Composting,systematic sorting, and other disposal methodsplay only a limited role in selected countries.The production and consumption of metals (seeTable 21.5) are central to many modern industrial processes.The United States, the U.S.S.R., Japan, andcountries of the European Community consume themajority of the world's metals. Only six developing nations—Algeria,Brazil, China, India, the Republic ofKorea, and Mexico—make it into the top 10 consumersof selected metals.A greater number of producers and more developingeconomies can be found in data on reserves ofmajor metals. Five countries—the U.S.S.R., South Africa,the United States, China, and Australia—holdover half of the world's reserves of the 15 metals listedin Table 21.6.World Resources 1992-93313

21 Energy and MaterialsTable 21.1 Commercial Energy Production, 1979-89WORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuelaPrimary Electricity (a}Total Solid Liquid Gas Geothermal & Wind Hydro NuclearPercent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent PercentPeta- Change Peta- Change Peta- Change Peta- Change Peta- Change Peta- Change Peta- Changejoules Since joules Since joules Since joules Since joules Since joules Since joules Since1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979310,972 14 95,713 26 130,299 (4) 70,497 33 141 244 7,539 23 6,783 2015,325 (11) 61 3,713 4,349 (18) 792 30 0 X 123 128 0 X18,926 6 4,072 50 12,461 (11) 2,218 127 0 X 159 (22) 14 X3,869 20 0 114 2,378 (10) 1,489 145 0 X 1 (20) 0 X959 212 0 X 948 214 7 136 0 X 5 34 0 X12 X 0 X 1200 XXX 0 XX 0 X 0 XX 0 X19 78X 19 78 00 X 00 X0 0 X0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X1 900 0 250 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X345 290 00 XX 336 300 0 X 0 X 9 110 0 X0 X0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X0 13 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 13 0 X0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X310 165 0 X 309 165 0 0 0 X 1 600 0 X12 40 0 X 80 X 0 X 027X00XX00XX5073X00XX2,142 76 0 X 1,868 75 251 123 0 X 23 (33) 0 X0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X2 45 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 2 45 0 X462 6X 0 X 449 4X 11 846 0 X 2 118 0 X000 X 00 00 X 0 X 0 X 00 X17 (12)X (100)X 0 X 17 4X1 17 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 1 17 0 X0 X 00 X 0 X 00 X 0 X 0 X 0 X10 113X 0 X X 1 X 9 88 0 X0 X X X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X1 (9) 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 1 (9) 0 X2,597 (42) 0 X 2,322 (46) 275 50 0 X 0 X 0 X1 179 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 1 179 0 X2 59 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 2 59 0 X10 133 00 X 00 XX 0 XX 0 XX 10 133 00 XXX00XX0 86 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 86 0 X23 (23) 16 (23) 1 (30) 2 (16) 0 X 4 (26) 0 X1 (97) 1 (79) 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 (100) 0 X0 X X X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X5 X 5 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X3,747 (23) 4 (24) 3,566 (26) 169 229 0 X 8 (43) 0 X1 10 0 X 0 X 0 0 0 X 1 11 0 X0 XXX 000 X 000 X 000 X 000 XX 0 XX 000 X0X XX0X0XXXX 0 XX3,875 51 3,859 51 0 X 0 X 0 X 2 (48) 14 X2 55 0 X 00 X 0 X 0 X 2 5 0 X65 (2)X 0 X 0 X 1 86 0 X2 20 0 200 0 X 0 X 0 X 2 17 0 X0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X224 (9) 0 X 211 (9) 14 (11) 0 X 0 (20) 0 X2 13 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 2 13 0000 X77 26 4 25 54 24 0 X 0 X 19 32X34 (27) 10 (34) 00 XX 00 X 00 X 24 (23)X159 50 150 60XX 10 (25)X78,990 10 23,816 31 28,453 4 22,292 (5) 81 286 2,154 8 2,193 1093 58 0 X 2 36 1 138 0 X 0 X 0 X0 X 0 X 0 X6 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X10,830 28 1,717 112 3,7943,981 31 0 X 1,049 19 288 12412 105 0 X 0 X 01 X 0 X 12 105 0 X32 141 0 X 30 15075 0 X 0 (23) 0 X3 72 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 3 72 0 X7 27 0 X 0 X 0 X 2 20 5 29 0 X15 245 0 X 8 132 0 X 0 XX 8 576 0 X1 50 0 X 0 XX 0 X 01 50 0 X3 19 0 X 00 X 0 X 3 19 0 X0 0 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 0 0 X7,353 65 221 44 6,046 78 984 18 18 402 83 27 0 X2 49 0 X 0 XX 0 X 1 X 1 (30) 0 X8 171 0 X 00 X 0 X 8 171 0 X471 (21) 0 X 323 (30) 147 15 0 X 0 X 0 X60,249 3 21,878 27 18,249 (9) 17,177 (12) 60 282 979 (3) 1,906 10712,610 25 777 177 8,540 7 2,088 73 0 X 1,179 90 27 1701,905 36 13 (28) 1,032 (0) 785 159 0 X 55 42 20 106165 22 0 X 46 (20) 114 55 0 X 5 26 0 X2,318 156 126 23 1,281133 276 0 X 771 86 7 X215 38 57 108 58 (8) 66 63 0 X 35 38 0 X1,657 186 516 294 860 210 174 43 0 X 108 123 0 X633 38 0 X 612 34 4 128 0 X 18 571 0 X0 X 0 X 00 XX 0 XX 0 X 0 X 0 X10 434 0 X00 X 10 434 0 X355 (20) 3 333 293 (26) 20 8 0 X 38 57 0 X13 285 0 X 9 X 0 X 0 X 3 0 0 X14 199 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 14 199 0 X314World Resources 1992-93

ASMAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsSource:Energy and Materials 21Table 21.1Primary Electricity {a}TotalSolidLiquidGas Geothermal & Wind HydroNuclearPercentPercentPercentPercentPercentPercentPercentPeta- Change PetajoulesChange Peta-Change Peta-Change Peta-Change Peta- Change Peta- Changejoules SinceSince joules Since joules Since joules Since joules Since joules Since1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 197985,244 8 29,810 63 45,345 (19 7,673 122 25 317 1,434 59 957 2215,656 72 3,945 97 1,035 14 621 100 3 X 52 (10) 0 X1 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 1 X 0 X409 151 62 35 76 370 187 359 4 5 79 41 0 X2 30X 0 XX 0 XX 0 XX 0 X 2 30 0 X00000 X 0 X 0 X123 34 4 10 0 200 115 35 0 X 3 11 0 X292 34 0 XXXX 97 (11 195 76 0 X 0 X 0 X159 283 050 1,710 151 287 0 X 3 25 0 X2 7,900 0X 0 X 0 X 2 7,900 0 X0 X 00 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X28,484 56 21,750 67 5,755 29 586 4 0 X 394 118 0 X0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X6,920 106 4,920 90 1,428 166 316 412 0 X 230 40 26 1564,065 7 133 1,532 2,685 (18 1,215 135 1 X 31 497 0 X6,895 (14) 35 33 5,970 (18 866 24 0 X 24 24 0 X5,993 (17) 0 X 5,800 (19 191 179 0 X 2 (14) 0 X2 36) 0 X 1 (23 2 (4C 0 X 0 X 0 X1,381 20 263 (44) 23 9 80 22 5 25 352 15 658 1601 X 0 X 1 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X1,530 21 1,416 19 0 X 0 X 0 X 114 55 0 X579 54 392 10 0 X 0 X 0 X 16 96 171 1,4033,470 (38) 0 XX 3,257 (4C 212 5£ 0 X 0 X 0 X4 4 0 0 X 0 X 0 X 4 4 0 X2 (41) 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 2 (41) 0 X1,769 202 0 X 1,187 105 559 20,184 0 X 23 474 0 X91 93 91 93 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X85 16 200 100 37 (37 42 286 0 X 4 60 0 X2 219XX 0 X 0 X 0 X 2 219 0 X1,435 1251,344 119 91 251 0 X 0 X 0 X600 117 52 89 96 360 391 97 0 X 61 106 0 (69)81 27 27 419 11 (76 0 X 19 705 24 127 0 X1,076 (10) 0 X 862 (16 214 26 0 X 0 X 0 X12,224 (40) 0 X 11,182 (45 1,042 4,069 0 X 0 X 0 X0 X 0 X 0 XX 0 XX 0 X 0 X 0 X10 81 0 X 000 X 10 81 0 X793 112 0 X 767 111 9 553 0 X 17 100 0 X416 1,420 97 537 98 25,508 202 X 0 X 20 71 0 X642 44 450 55 120 2 7 7,467 0 X 65 74 0 X4,714 18 0 X 3,952 4 762 26C 0 X 0 X 0 X185 12 158 (2) 19 X 0 X 0 X 8 124 0 X0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X353 X 0 X 353 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X40,061 9 18,145 (5) 8,921 59 8,470 (12 26 189 1,674 (1) 2,825 289185 9 35 71 121 (3 16 8 0 X 13 33 0 X250 (18) 23 (36) 51 (31 46 (52 0 X 130 31 0 X248 19 97 41) 0 X 0 (64 0 X 1 45 148 261528 13 505 21 3 (72 0 (93 0 X 10 (19) 10 (56)1,871 (6) 1,734 (10) 6 31 27 (6 0 X 15 2 88 1,044338 1,761 0 X 232 1,181 105 X 2 X 0 0 0 X171 128 56 312 0 X 0 X 0 X 47 20 69 2001,938 38 385 (39) 153 77 121 (60 0 X 184 (22) 1,094 6614,351 (9) 3,034 17 226 14 493 32 0 X 61 (0) 536 2522,773 16 2,655 17 2 (22 66 (19 0 X 6 18 44 26335 134 283 117 39 X 6 X 0 X 8 (40) 0 X608 (7) 222 (25) 104 (12 23216 58 0 X 0 X 0x 5 o10X 1 6 50 X450 15 51 0 X139 132 50 41 0 X 85 297X 4 21 0 X938 23 12 (45) 197 173 594 23 11 26 123 (26) 0 (100)3 818 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 3 818 0 X0 X 00 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X2,440 (32)X 161 140 2,264 (35 0 X 0 X 14 154,873 143 10 33 3,145 299 1,292 45 0 X 426 34 0 X4,913 (8) 4,748 (7) 8 (43 143 (36 0 X 14 53 0 X25 (47) 4 (16) 0 X 0 X 0 X 21 (51) 0 X2,308748 57 407 (24 1,108 (24 0 X 45 11 0 X854 27 477 10 43 10 6100 207,000 0 X 70 (58) 202 738497 68 0 (100) 0 (100 X 0 X 260 18 237 213190 24 0 X 0 XX 0 X 107 (5) 82 1038,211 5 2,371 (20) 3,858 18 1,725 17 0 X 25 62 233 691,058 35 695 58 164 (6 85 10 12 X 85 (11) 17 X69,071 26 15,086 (1) 25,468 4 26,948 90 0 X 802 30 767 3446,070 76 4,007 95 1,111 20 808 130 7 75 136 17 0 XUnited Nations Statistical Office.a. The production of primary electricity was assessed at the heat value of electricity (1 kilowatt hour = 3.6 million joules), the equivalent of assuming a 100 percentefficiency.1 petajoule = 1,000,000,000,000,000 joules = 947,800,000,000 Btus = 163,400 "U.N. standard" barrels of oil = 34,140 "U.N. standard" metric tons of coal.World and regional totals include countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.World Resources 1992-93315

21 Energy and MaterialsTable 21.2 Energy Consumption and Requirements, 1979-89WORLDCommercial Energy ConsumptionPer ConstantTotalPer Capita 1987$USofGNPPercent Percent PercentPeta- Change Giga- Change Mega- Changejoules Since joules Since joules Since1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979298,258 18 57 (1) X XImportsas PercentageofEnergy Requirements in Conventional Fuel EquivalentPer ConstantTotalPer Capita 1987 $US of GNP TraditionalPercentPercentPercent Fuels as Per-Peta- Change Giga- Change Mega- Change centage of TotalConsumption joules Since joules Since joules1979 1989 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989X X 346,931 22 67 2 XSince Requirements1979 1979 1989X 6 6AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth Africa {b}SudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela7,472666256X73851431236041,1221344234614272X1151613106411426415X135926419123,09845X28716714654719287,6381238,414434718134521026614,293314120973,3708,8031,813793,44545877520092731215711,5925290(10)15X28109220(68)133(2)1785481139482407124(3)95613X(57)170(11)864064735(56)X9713914012017130(3)X(3)(63)494410(28)50547(14)1481810(14)12(45)3927Sii324242428443333(56)403(55)(15)19122731X11731121051122413833323X51171112213111X251622772X12211262020747143211645127625255181716529530571123352419116153523831341(31)(16)X(1)58134(75)78(22)97363(26)(27)5250418(11)(30)(14)26(23)X(69)79(33)(23)(17)300315(67)X417374(16)(21)1032(27)X(28)(73)166(19)(50)70)42(35)4(14)9(19)(13)35(16)(27)(52)13(8)(24)(20)(7)18(5)2282(58)2(18)(62)(20)(10)X1044X3284434116X32116131487119XX225834671310X623391413364X8517392333X89209X167756213012105015X27181122211829615131036X38X(9)x(12)38108(87)121(38)79259(1)X13X1158(2)(20)X23(25)XX339(6)(13)(24)333(2)(7)(68)X11014192(10)(16)1415(19)X(18)(70)410(7)(38)(2)X27(42)(14)X(19)13(21)0(17)(48)1555(11)34(20)X4629(3)5(2)6(44)(1)2(44)(14)29(265) (153)(823) (481)(982) (3,663)99 (91)X X100 10096(234)10086100100(3,196)83100(110)9693(1,685)99599610093X95(2,252)9786961009884a (32)X100(1,864)7710010099a (9)96X93100(120)78(3)30171475100(15)85979884939290100(44)9495(169)18(42)4(112)66511(205)10090(47)9094(347)79(307)1009399100(1,249)79100(91)10093(1,013)100639610086X89(404)927990100979191X65(533)89100100100(25)96X92100(34)83(19)28171072100(29)7293968071888899(71)9381(125)18(43)(5)(108)3353(114)(216)10063(14)1880(234)12,3636867854X87432041383614416941,21164137111236556434X6152187146594230285165X551,589628337813,272254X3391619714442220129598,57014611,087101650115871566689674,720717621280,56014,2402,0701057,3625981,1993081493484221191,86042871332X283881(68)482417815336378202264737211337X(9)1662722304056325X4663341619562529X38(37)454231529823(11)203013(6)(1)221825(44)38267(6)631252034414441(52)4112(46)2272028812X10818313722014112414864131610618X24119818722281211X7149129138110X1442591226312335431422376216171710182856193216832449651550463730172223513997639(13)(3)X(1)432(75)13(2)9781(9)(27)39(1)(9)13(23)(0)(4)(8)(7)X(33)76(5)(12)2300(5)2(19)X518(3)(13)(6)17(2)(2)X1(55)134(3)(27)(8)(6)19(32)934(25)(14)(8)(2)(11)(50)12(9)(13)(20)(4)69(8)820178(55)3(11)(55)(4)(4)X111432X3337194363842218X354273226143253452XX223411728461514112X2663311858843825X981220305710051X9192622X2318213221233328195117X312425293227442223191742X36X6X(11)(9)18(87)40(21)794021X3X(4)52(15)14X(10)xX33133(1)(6)333(29)(10)(8) aX56647(6)(0)397 a9X16(48)1812(10)(15)X6(40)(99X(24)1212171(47)1454033(18)X472523712(40)(1)11(33)4383944984X9295680929007652058392398054697677X563789085166576X817292497191575X872017877342252265403430314951805666523121236193613182928661912013735586X9292490889204159047591357767726779X781829087052589X736288517685681X90431587765825212551332723465782628549261220516301217243359202241316World Resources 1992-93

ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.TotalEnergy ConsumptionPer CapitaPer Constant1987 $US of GNPPercent Percent PercentPeta- Change Giga- Change Mega- Changejoules Since joules Since joules Since1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 197970,778 54 23 28 X X228 90 467 24 76227 125 2 73 121 155 1 107 2 c6 1,353 1 1,063 X107 258 5 179 X26,156517,5281,4532,39956740214,5331151,7562,748480511470511774131469305272502,535393553401,0261,539897210427064,4651198921,6761,2912,7336658406,4609,6563,6489181,136423926,384136212,8908845,0625433,0472,8461,2537108,4361,77154,958615394443610261121372883146125312862368C228119935299(217321176926813204151(129(3(1?(1(4(??12(9(12555(8141514(1373(319268210(115(13127237445318911829836523414241572198895931761463281828581342912737117168144175130169115156219911071651121113616019520913453132731471071477519140387612(4) 1557172617423557386257(13)547723103910760(14)(18)145(13)1(7)7934119(9)11787(4)6(4)(13)(3)(7)(23)7(14)13547(7)11012(16)78(8)15(5)58(3)5(13)1(3)2316X11521X18144X2032742025X82 a59,5, a(31)(1 '( f 5 'X1326XX1669XX3114S?137141442(84130 281168fi12127 417 722 1133 2824 XX X59 XXX71147517978X19469148151113107914569841127XXX?17,2281733?627X381810(0104420171512?.7131726161927XImportsas PercentageofConsumption1979 1989(72) (194)(208)(81)5991100(12)10013(276)(352)(2,478)9991100775(2,789)796(89)a 34(35)91(1,338)3587(546)(3,131)10089(45)9451(1,542)1210010043(84)67a 89a 64a 3098908056317647728286100100(20)(171)a (8)8516747977842(27)(15)(?R)30(189)98(9)1008(180)(187(956)9990991379(624)1598(151)22(15)85(886)3685(330)(382)10083(134)5958(425)12(734)10038(55)72855932498070552464466165859810016(451)39524706073340(25)Energy and Materials 21Table 21.2Energy Requirements in Conventional Fuel EquivalentPer ConstantTotal Per Capita 1987 $US of GNP TraditionalPercent Percent Percent Fuels as Per-Peta- Change Giga- Change Mega Change centage of Totaljoules Since joules Since joules Since Requirements1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1979 198984,136 52 28 26 X X 13 103058941227(12)13114 CX(50) aX99999589157 93 8 50 X X 57 29228 90 467 24 76 82 a 0 0502 38 5 6 27 (2) 71 5428,805 5210,6932,8522,47457239916,5731152,0253,165480431228341312682261461,3309832502,5353931533741,6311,766897465427474,3981561,1531,9641,3812,9757471,1648,81510,8853,7609591,344744006,942170212,9571,6385,1335983,2283,3992,3631,0799,0472,03458,59958547032351006117138309114825421175127672281022135299(2)21369040268222041426264(1)(2)1(15)2610(5)5513291515(3)73(2)21346414815230292675131646318913529957523411464863712981216593176146931293258174301464915119715419014623515717622696127293114121451601993881365813988278162158862043838378(4)40351073106957(3)43681432910748(5)(18)145(13)5(4)5711119(1)11780233(2)(4)(2)(16)215(6)6444151013(7)78(7)17(5)360)9610022188412373416X10621X211442X2336277420362542301622302725338X62XX913505581299X20541514918111319811559111461231X(32(2914X13(22)XX(12)169XX25(19) a213375141281(51(188(6)(8)282XXXXX(15)(12) a(28) a(13) a(27)(12)(11)(21)X34(8)2(0)(9)(38)20(15)(14)(12) a10(12(14(9(16)26X813353100002708251715719402638O0054041220490811310110510022001000001108102261254710000210834101069920213800052034505104110101123100220010001111151021OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsSources:Notes:4,1413,53411499332403873254315821114151972019(17)63(2)2X189141114X3(8451111(16)(28)1004395100(47)(60)8918951004,6243,77025666914United Nations Statistical Office and The World Bank.a. Change since 1980. b. Data are for South Africa Customs Union (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland), c. 1988 data.1 petajoule = 1,000,000,000,000,000 joules = 947,800,000,000 Btus = 163,400 "U.N. standard" barrels of oil = 34,140 "U.N. standard" metric tons of coal.1 gigajoule = 1,000,000,000 joules = 947,800 Btus; 1 megajoule = 1,000,000 joules = 947.8 Btus.World and regional totals include countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses; GNP = gross national product.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.3937346314(16)17622534201241119191353(11)(41)X2020193022X225361(48)424306464434806038tVbrld Resources 1992-93317

21 Energy and MaterialsTable 21.3 Commercial Energy Use by Sector, 1979-89WORLDPercentage of Commercial Energy Used forIndustry Transport Agriculture Commercial Residential Other1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989Energy Intensity, 1989Industry Agriculture(megajoules (megajoulesper$US per$USIndustrial AgricultureGDP) GDP)AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninCameroonCongoCote d'lvoireEgyptEthiopiaGabonGhanaKenyaLibyaMoroccoMozambiqueNigeriaSenegalSouth AfricaSudanTanzaniaTunisiaZambiaZimbabweTHE AMERICASArgentinaBoliviaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaCubaEcuadorGuatemalaJamaicaMexicoNetherlands AntillesPanamaParaguayPeruTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesUruguayVenezuelaASIABangladeshBahrainBruneiChinaCyprusHong KongIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraq2821621 b1949192634214440252224919102047 c1727 a38 a24623015286427293369502917 b403641344818305840321283560333232101631623fi34336555?5?1393742334119104142?0??143475an233950 5457 6921 2264 b 6438 2944 3756334123aaaacdrlaadaaa53 a37 d42 a20 a36597261 b8053226453425345321756622250443617243757 b40283838234748213750627736303237461734475 b433227321646406460117953b79 04724 c6148 a42 a503132 d1956 a54234fi40311922315337?fi3940?353583734554B633618353540152251552aaaacddaadaaa3625 a34 d23 a46 a30126521350 b320245424000701505006 b311175?1201100aaaac.d515?0 rla?4543 a30n04 daaa03 a0 d7 a0 a100153376720 b41223030000602111211003 b62 c14 a2 a1 a5 a?3 a7 aR c6 d1051424rla0100 a001412 d1 a1?7 a4 a2152111 b1124 a111115119 171937151411125541316451923 b7181513121112611111512176181792513019 b912201016101010312018 c712 a11 a13221 d223 a8641420520231018121414101811121'-14191961821102110aaaaoddaadaaa1912719 a913 a23 d15 a13 a5 514 19116b1303334812754 d695 a234532282 b645101316613875343571123 b1022323321182434719139891113414562332210Israel 34 b 31 4 8 b 4 8 1b 1 3b 6 7b 9 7b 5Japan 53 46 20 24 1 2 7 9 10 12 8 7Jordan 11 20 61 55 0 2 0 1 19 18 8 4Korea, Dem People's Rep 88 85 6 8 0 0 0 0 1 156Korea, Rep 43 43 18 20 0 3 4 3 33 29 1 2KuwaitLebanonMalaysiaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepTaiwanThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen56 45 30 3030 4 54 7045 44 37 4049 68 41 2731 28 34 262 23 c 45 25 c42 46 c 28 26 c41 32 27 2350 47 a 38 14 a38 b 35 c 45 b 32 c17 37 67 4819 13 a 54 61 a46 34 a 35 44 a62 56 17 2127 24 45 5426 32 22 221 16 83 687 b 14 75 b 64 a70 b 65 19 b 20 e0000110 0 c4 3 c1202 0 ab003511301 b0 b00 a4 a30 c04 a130 0 c11 6 c301 40 ab 13 c100 b0 b100 e0 a1082716121213 b19 C109 a4307 521 1710 134514b15 baaaacddaadaaa4 a5 d6 a21 a63863191522532X461416351881015X14X821323X10512541272132XX7331140XX517X125 61010 16402 XXX42027 c 38 25 c16 c 35 2 c28 51 a 11 38 a11 b 4 c23 a6 a10 5138252146b15 3 b2157 a434X16433X7213XX13X152238069X2X5195X0050680023X23318World Resources 1992-93

Energy and Materials 21Table 21.3EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)Percentage of Commercial Energy Used forIndustry Transport Agriculture Commercial Other1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 1989 1979 19892833432962204338362730412456 a41020443135380231522191153354436314167041444845624539233751 f54283932333654038413846403839182945 a4617 2023 2716 2331 3711 7 a331041272314661520103053217252223 f15321929261065371350262827562022123043724303124 a150021101215 a94210068012001244052112 f964210076233006244142111 a100 0 33 48 359270 0 110 1 a 10822211003029330210050441692 f11333231018 a9 38 27 34 29 21 6320 12 1511 20 21 130 40 42 90 6 6 4157694703110oi06101990 a101821182927141525192512111029312510 f419297272611819191312171121292516 a14Energy Intensity, 1989Industry(megajoulesper$USIndustrialGDP)52 50X7 652 31217 13 a 4027 282641744322016415321495612 f759359294542313613533438543614 a541176XX1534X346XX129X14X2710X715XAgriculture(megajoulesper$USAgricultureGDP)X1763310754XX714X34XX145X5X54X42XOCEANIAAustraliaNew ZealandSources:Notes:3931373837373938International Energy Agency and The World Bank.a. Refers to 1988. b. Refers to 1980. c. Refers to 1986. d. Refers to 1987. e. Refers to 1985. f. Refers to 1981.Totals may not add to 100 percent because of independent rounding.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; ; X = not available; GDP = gross domestic product.F For additional dditil information, i f i see Sources S and d Technical T h l Notes. N2422596613151211434101353Table 21.4 Municipal Waste in OECD CountriesAnnual MunicipalWaste GenerationComposition of Municipal Waste (percent of total weight)Year (000 Per Year Paper Organic asof metric Capita of and PercentageEstimate tons) (kg) Estimate Cardboard Plastic Glass Metals Other of InorganicDisposal of Municipal Waste (000 metric tons)YearofIncinerationWith EnergyEstimate Landfill Total Recovery OtherAustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany (Fed Rep)GreeceIcelandIrelandItalyJapanLuxembourgNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPortugalSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited StatesSources:Notes:1980198819891989198519891989198710,0002,7003,470 b16,0002,4002,50017,00019,483681355349625469504303318198019851989198919851985 d1989198526.033.628.336.538.640.027.517.96.17.07.74.73.48.04.55.415.110.47.66.65.44.07.59.27.03.73.76.65.03.06.53.245.845.352.745.647.645.054.064.341.460.547.674.3 C81.385.059.0 e63.4 e198019871980198919851987198919879,8001,8361,53013,4481,2602,0007,68412,9172002227201,416 c540506,9705,942X20215101X504,670X1989 3,147 259 1989 20.0 7.0 3.0 4.0 66.0 57.0 1989 3,084 1 c198593 386 XX X X X XXX X X1984 1,100 311 1984 24.5 14.0 7.5 3.0 51.0 56.0 1984 1,100 XXXX199019881982198919881706,9002,10617,30048,2834664656703013941985198819801986198917.224.233.622.345.56.47.13.07.28.37.27.22.56.21.02.63.27.63.11.366.658.353.361.243.944.088.337.064.477.219901988198219891987513,7902,0055,28616,4861172,555X2,79432,6165958,9371171,840X198919852,0002,3504732311988198530.019.05.03.03.03.07.03.555.071.577.074.5198919891,500742400X76X1988198512,5462,6503223171989198020.043.07.010.06.05.04.06.063.036.049.089.0198819859,7131,1006041,4003671,2041989 2,850 424 1989 32.0 13.0 7.0 6.0 42.0 70.0 1989 460 2,2701989 19,500 353 XX X X X XXX X X1,816X1989 h198618,000208,7603578641980 h198429.034.77.06.710.09.08.08.846.040.858.037.51989198614,000138,705i 2,500 j15,000 k1,250 iXOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and United Nations Statistical Commission and Economic Commission for Europe (ECE).a. Composting and mechanical sorting, only. b. Total is sum from different years and regions: 1982 for Brussels region, 1987 for Flanders region, and 1989 for Wallonregion, c. Refers to 1985. d. Household wastes only. e. Refers to 1980. f. Includes methanation and holding area. g. Composting only. h. England and Wales only.i. Direct landfill, j. Includes some industrial and commercial waste, k. Refers to 1984.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.X730 a832242 c6004502,346 f624XXX5,8861,5072 g55535100 g1,9362,229 g250 a120 aX3,500 jXWorld Resources 1892-93319

21 Energy and MaterialsTable 21.5 Production, Consumption, and Reserves of SelectedALUMINUM {a}AustraliaGuineaJamaicaBrazilIndiaU.S.S.R.ChinaSurinameYugoslaviaGreeceTen Countries TotalWorid TotalAnnual Production (000 metric tons)1975 1980 1985199021,004.08,406.011,571.0969.31,273.04,368.8985.54,927.62,306.33,005.358,816.974,927.0Bauxite, Worid Reserves 1990 (000 metric tons)Bauxite, Worid Reserve Base 1990 (000 metric tons)CADMIUMU.S.S.R.JapanBelgiumUnited StatesCanadaGermany {b}MexicoChinaItalyAustraliaTen Countries TotalWorid Total2.62.70.92.01.21.00.60.10.40.512.115.2Worid Reserves 1990 (000 metric tons)Worid Reserve Base 1990 (000 metric tons)COPPERChileUnited StatesCanadaU.S.S.R.ZambiaPolandChinaZairePeruAustraliaTen Countries TotalWorid Total831.01,282.2733.8580.0676.9230.499.8462.6165.8219.05,281.66,739.0World Reserves 1990 (000 metric tons)Worid Reserve Base 1990 (000 metric tons)LEADAustraliaUnited StatesU.S.S.R.ChinaCanadaPeruMexicoKorea, Dem People's RepSwedenYugoslaviaTen Countries TotalWorid Total407.8563.8480.899.8349.1184.5178.6117.970.4126.92,579.73,432.2Worid Reserves 1990 (000 metric tons)Worid Reserve Base 1990 (000 metric tons)MERCURYU.S.S.R.SpainChinaAlgeriaMexicoFinlandCzechoslovakiaTurkeyYugoslaviaUnited StatesTen Countries TotalWorid Total1.91.50.91.00.50.00.20.20.60.37.08.7Worid Reserves 1990 (000 metric tons)Worid Reserve Base 1990 (000 metric tons)27,179.011,862.012,054.05,538.01,785.04,600.01,500.04,646.03,138.03,286.075,588.089,220.02.92.21.51.61.31.20.80.30.61.013.318.21,063.01,181.1716.4590.0595.8343.0115.0425.7336.1243.55,609.67,204.0397.5550.4420.0160.0296.6189.1145.5125.072.2121.52,477.83,448.22.11.50.70.80.10.10.20.20.01.16.76.831,838.911,790.06,239.05,846.02,281.04,600.01,650.03,738.03,538.02,453.073,973.984,189.03.02.51.31.61.71.10.90.50.50.914.119.11,359.81,104.8738.6600.0452.6431.3185.0470.0391.3259.85,993.27,870.0498.0424.4440.0200.0268.3201.5206.7110.075.9115.12,539.93,431.22.20.90.70.80.40.10.20.20.10.66.16.140,697.016,500.010,921.08,750.05,000.04,200.04,000.03,267.02,952.02,700.098,987.0109,118.021,800,00024,500,0002.82.41.81.71.41.21.00.80.70.714.520.25359701,603.21,587.2779.6600.0445.0380.0375.0370.0334.0316.06,790.08,814.0321,000549,000563.0495.2450.0315.0236.2189.0179.9120.090.073.02,711.33,367.270,000120,0002.11.50.80.60.30.20.10.10.1X5.85.8130240United StatesJapanU.S.S.R.Germany {b\FranceItalyChinaUnited KingdomIndiaCanadaTen Countries TotalAnnual Consumption (000 metric tons)1975 1980 1985 19903,265.01,170.81,580.0903.7399.2270.0320.0392.7145.0293.38,739.7Worid Total 11,349.8Worid Reserves Life Index (years)Worid Reserve Base Life Index (years)JapanUnited StatesBelgiumU.S.S.R.FranceUnited KingdomGermany {b}MexicoChinaKorea, RepTen Countries TotalWorid TotalWorid Reserves Life Index (years)Worid Reserve Base Life Index (years)United StatesJapanGermany fb}U.S.S.R.ChinaFranceItalyBelgiumKorea, RepUnited KingdomTen Countries TotalWorid TotalWorid Reserves Life Index (years)Worid Reserve Base Life Index (years)United StatesU.S.S.R.Germany {b}JapanUnited KingdomItalyFranceChinaKorea, RepSpainTen Countries TotalWorid TotalWorid Reserves Life Index (years)Worid Reserve Base Life Index (years)United StatesSpainAlgeriaUnited KingdomChinaBrazilGermany (Fed Rep)MexicoBelgiumU.S.S.R.Ten Countries TotalWorid TotalWorid Reserves Life Index (years)World Reserve Base Life Index (years)0.43.01.02.20.81.01.6XXX10.212.61,396.5827.4746.61,220.0316.0364.5290.0177.428.0450.55,816.97,457.51,120.2620.0373.5189.4306.0192.0190.3185.010.2111.03,297.64,526.21.80.2X0.70.5X0.4X0.20.94.67.34,453.51,639.01,850.01,272.3600.9458.0550.0409.3233.8311.911,778.715,297.91.13.91.72.41.21.32.20.30.30.214.517.01,867.71,158.3870.81,300.0386.0433.4388.0303.984.0409.27,201.39,374.61,094.0800.0433.1392.5295.5275.0212.8210.033.0110.73,856.65,348.32.00.2 eX0.4 e0.5 eX0.5 hX0.1 h1.8 e5.47.7 e4,282.01,694.81,750.01,390.9586.1470.0630.0350.4297.6345.011,796.815,861.51.93.71.92.91.11.41.60.20.40.315.417.61,958.01,226.3886.81,305.0420.0397.8362.0309.6206.6346.57,418.69,699.91,141.7800.0440.0394.9274.3235.0208.0220.063.2103.13,880.25,440.71.70.60.20.30.40.20.30.20.3X4.27.44,352.32,414.31,700.01,378.5720.9652.0650.0453.7420.0415.713,157.417,877.92002254.83.12.72.3 c1.80.90.90.50.4 c0.417.820.7 cX dX d2,142.51,576.51,027.81,000.0512.0477.6474.8389.5324.2317.28,242.110,773.236621,288.4650.0447.5416.9301.6258.0254.5250.0150.0114.64,131.55,544.521361.2 c0.8 f0.7 f0.4 f0.3 g0.3 f0.2 f0.2 f0.1 fX4.36.6 f2241320World Resources 1992-93

Energy and Materials 21Metals, 1975-90Table 21.5NICKELU.S.S.R.CanadaNew CaledoniaAustraliaIndonesiaCubaSouth AfricaDominican RepBotswanaChinaTen Countries TotalWorld TotalAnnual Production (000 metric tons)1975 1980 1985 1990152.4242.2133.375.819.236.620.826.916.6X723.8807.9World Reserves 1990 (000 metric tons)World Reserve Base 1990 (000 metric tons)TINChinaBrazilIndonesiaMalaysiaBoliviaU.S.S.R.ThailandAustraliaPeruUnited KingdomTen Countries TotalWorld Total22.05.025.364.424.330.016.49.60.24.1201.3222.3World Reserves 1990 (000 metric tons)World Reserve Base 1990 (000 metric tons)ZINCCanadaAustraliaU.S.S.R.ChinaPeruUnited StatesMexicoSpainKorea, Dem People's RepSwedenTen Countries TotalWorld Total1,229.5500.9689.599.8384.8425.8288.985.3159.7111.33,975.45,849.7World Reserves 1990 (000 metric tons)World Reserve Base 1990 (000 metric tons)IRON OREU.S.S.R.BrazilChinaAustraliaUnited StatesIndiaCanadaSouth AfricaVenezuelaSwedenTen Countries TotalWorld Total232,792.089,889.665,024.097,646.780,127.941,403.046,866.012,297.724,771.130,865.1721,683.1902,388.8World Reserves 1990 (000 metric tons)World Reserve Base 1990 (000 metric tons)STEEL, CRUDEU.S.S.R.JapanUnited StatesChinaGermany {b}ItalyKorea, RepBrazilFranceUnited KingdomTen Countries TotalWorld TotalSources:141,327.2102,314.0105,817.625,401.646,888.621,836.32,009.48,308.121,530.620,197.9495,631.5644,208.2154.2184.886.674.353.336.625.716.315.410.9658.2779.714.66.932.561.427.336.033.711.61.13.0228.1247.31,059.0495.3785.0160.0487.6317.1235.8183.1140.0167.44,030.35,961.6244,702.6114,726.768,072.095,529.470,726.841,934.448,751.726,310.316,101.627,183.1754,038.6890,924.3147,943.5111,396.9101,456.737,120.851,147.026,501.18,558.515,338.923,176.211,278.3533,918.0713,813.1185.1170.072.485.840.332.125.025.426.325.0687.3812.615.026.521.736.916.113.516.96.43.85.2162.0180.71,172.2759.1810.0300.0523.4251.9275.4234.7180.0216.44,723.16,758.3247,639.0128,251.080,000.097,447.049,533.042,545.039,502.024,414.014,710.020,454.0744,495.0860,640.0154,670.0105,281.080,069.046,721.048,350.023,789.013,539.020,456.018,833.015,723.0527,431.0718,131.0259.0201.988.070.058.041.036.033.025.025.0836.9937.148,988108,86240.039.130.228.518.015.014.67.45.14.2202.2219.35,9206,0501,177.0937.0750.0619.0576.8543.2322.5258.0230.0157.45,570.97,325.0144,000295,000236,000.0150,000.0118,000.0110,000.059,032.052,000.036,443.030,347.020,365.019,890.0832,077.0864,370.0151,000,000229,000,000154,000.0110,339.089,726.066,000.044,022.025,439.023,125.020,572.019,017.017,908.0570,148.0771,979.0JapanUnited StatesU.S.S.R.Germany {b}FranceUnited KingdomChinaItalyBelgiumSpainTen Countries TotalWorld TotalWorld Reserves Life Index (years)World Reserve Base Life Index (years)United StatesJapanGermany {b}U.S.S.R.ChinaUnited KingdomFranceKorea, RepNetherlandsBrazilTen Countries TotalWorld TotalWorld Reserves Life Index (years)World Reserve Base Life Index (years)United StatesU.S.S.R.JapanGermany {b}ChinaFranceItalyKorea, RepUnited KingdomBelgiumTen Countries TotalWorld TotalWorld Reserves Life Index (years)World Reserve Base Life Index (years)U.S.S.R.ChinaJapanUnited StatesGermany (Fed Rep)BrazilFranceKorea, RepUnited KingdomBelgiumTen Countries TotalWorld TotalWorld Reserves Life Index (years)World Reserve Base Life Index (years)U.S.S.R.United StatesJapanChinaGermany {b}ItalyIndiaKorea, RepFranceUnited KingdomTen Countries TotalWorld TotalAnnual Consumption (000 metric tons)1975 1980 1985 199090.0132.9115.051.831.920.818.017.03.25.0485.6576.255.828.115.623.014.014.410.00.63.93.3168.7230.5839.0900.0563.0360.0180.0223.0150.035.0207.0103.03,560.05,062.0189,177.066,436.0132,689.0127,531.048,193.0 i21,453.042,094.0 i1,241.023,696.0 i16,871.0 i669,381.0902,388.8141,031.0116,821.068,080.029,110.039,793.017,778.08,086.02,964.019,261.020,903.0463,827.0644,153.0122.0143.1132.078.138.422.818.027.13.68.6593.7716.756.430.919.025.012.59.910.11.85.05.0175.6234.6879.01,030.0752.0474.0259.0330.0236.068.0181.0155.04,364.06,283.0197,840.0120,394.0108,693.090,832.050,072.018,383.037,875.09,675.09,326.015,756.0658,846.0890,924.3150,330.0114,433.079,007.043,005.044,631.026,764.010,900.06,100.020,159.016,050.0511,379.0718,921.0136.1143.1138.087.031.924.821.029.06.68.2625.7775.237.831.617.831.511.59.46.92.64.54.6158.2214.6962.01,000.0780.0480.0349.0247.0218.0120.0189.0169.04,514.06,552.0203,760.0140,354.0102,215.064,679.045,204.036,419.026,606.011,709.015,176.013,353.0659,475.0860,640.0157,161.0105,593.073,377.071,428.039,995.021,880.014,400.011,310.014,812.014,350.0524,306.0720,568.0159.3124.6115.093.344.832.627.527.321.320.6666.3842.65211636.834.821.720.018.010.48.37.86.96.1170.8229.72728991.0920.0814.3529.5500.0284.0270.0227.2189.0177.64,902.66,972.92040199,700.0183,963.0107,395.0 c73,002.0 c46,867.0 c40,079.025,750.0 c22,870.018,663.0 c13,479.0 c731,768.0924,869.0 c175265166,319.0 c102,351.0 c93,278.0 c69,504.0 c44,269.0 c27,994.0 c20,036.0 c18,300.0 c17,565.0 c17,400.0 c577,016.0 C794,470.0 cU.S. Bureau of Mines, World Bureau of Metal Statistics (Ware, United Kingdom), and other sources.a. Production refers to bauxite, consumption data to aluminum, b. Data are for both, Federal Republic of Germany and German Democratic Republic, c. Data refer to1989. d. A production/reserve ratio would be misleading because production data include secondary metal, e. Data refer to 1978. f. Data refer to 1987. g. Data refer to1986. h. Data refer to 1979. i. Data refer to 1976:World reserves life index equals 1990 world reserves divided by 1990 world production.World reserve base life index equals 1990 world reserve base divided by 1990 world production.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.World Resources 1992-93321

21 Energy and MaterialsTable 21.6 World Reserves of Major Metals, 1990WORLDBase Metals(million metric tons of metal content)Copper Lead Tin Zinc321.00 70.44 5.93 143.91Iron and Ferro Alloys (million metric tons of metal content)Iron Manga-Chro-Molyb- TungmiumVana-Ore nese NickelCobalt denum sten dium64,648 812.8 48.66 418.90 3.31 6.10 2.35 4.27Light Metals(million metric tons)Bauxite Titani- Lithium{b} urn {c) (d)21,559 288.6 2.21MetalReservesIndex {a}100.00AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBotswanaBurkina FasoCameroonCongoEgyptEthiopiaGabonGhanaGuineaKenyaLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMauritaniaMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaSierra LeoneSouth AfricaSudanTanzaniaTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICACanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepGreenlandHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaFrench GuianaGuyanaPeruSurinameVenezuelaASMChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqJapanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepLao People's Dem RepMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarOmanPakistanPhilippinesSaudi ArabiaSri LankaThailandTurkeyViet Nam42.00 4.03 0.15 8.99 3,454 422.80.00 0.10 e 0.00 0.10 65 0.0f0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15X 0.00.43 f 0.00 0.00 0.000.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.00X 0.00.00 0.00 X 0.000 0.00.02 f 0.02 f 0.00 0.02 f 00.00 0.00 0.00 0.00X 0.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 52.60.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.90.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 900.00.00.000.000.000.01 f0.000.000.000.00000.00.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 200 0.00.25 f 1.00 e 0.00 0.16 f 30 XX 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.01.00 0.15 e 0.06 e 0.33 f 00 0.00.00 0.00 0.01 e 0.000.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 500 0.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.00X 0.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00.00 0.00 f 0.0202.00 2.00 0.03 e 3.00 2,500 369.20.00 0.00 0.00 0.000X 0.00.00 0.00 X 0.000.00.00 0.00 0.000.000.00 110.00.00.00 0.60 e 0.00 0.08 f 13 0.00.00 X X 0.0000X 0.026.00 0.00 0.02 5.000.012.00 0.15 e X 0.30 f0.00.30 f 0.00 0.01 e 0.00 30 0.081.00 21.38 0.08 47.00 8,580 3.612.00 7.00 0.06 21.00 4,600 0.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.000X0X 0.0X 0.00 0.00 0.000.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00.00 0.28 f 0.00 X 0.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.0X 0.10 e 0.00 X 0 0.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.014.00 3.00 X 6.00 180 3.6X 0.00 0.00 0.00 X 0.055.0094.00XX1.0085.000.000.000.008.000.000.0030.003.000.013.003.003.000.001.000.720.000.001.213.000.240.790.0010.000.030.000.001.000.00ffftff11.002.750.18 e0.05 e0.50 e0.02 f0.00 f0.000.002.00nnn0.009.58son0.000.10nnn0.000.00nsn2.0001R0.00nno0.000.10onn0.00onn0.000 000 400.000.000.021.380.00 e0.141.200.000.000.000.000 04nnn0.003.661.500.00e o.on0.680.00o.onR onqo.on XX1.100.00e 0 0?onn0.000.000.00fe0.00n?70.00X20.009.920.31 f0.55 f2.000.06 f0.00 f0.000.00e 7.000.000.0023.005.000.005.000.002.000.00e 4.004.000.680.000.000.000.060.000.000.040.060.001.001.000.16fffff3,800 0.08,213 20.960 0.00 0.06,500 20.9220 0.033 0.00020001,2007,2073,50003,3001627X1314017X3400000X0X160X0.00.00.00.00.030.813.60.017.20.0X0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0XX0.02.970.000.000.350.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.002.540.000.000.000.000.000.000.0826.828.130.0018.140.520.000.000.000.000.000.000.031.220.000.000.670.000.560.000.000.000.000.004.340.730.000.003.200.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00X0.000.000.410.000.000.000.000.00341.300.000.000.000.000.000.00X0.000.000.000.000.000.000.002.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.00295.200.500.000.000.000.000.0043.500.700.000.000.700.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.002.300.000.002.300.000.000.000.000.000.000.0023.80X0.0018.100.200.700.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00XX2.300.000.00X2.50X1.78 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 6! 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00X0.000.000.000.000.000.05 e0.000.000.000.00 e1.360.360.00 e1.090.050.001.040.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.010.000.000.01 e0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00X0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.003.600.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.100.003.001.400.000.000.001.250.000.000.000.150.000.000.02 0.600.00 0.550.00 0.000.00 0.000.02 e 0.000.00 0.050.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 X0.00 0.000.00X0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00o.oo0.000.000.00o.oo0.01 g0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.01fga0.420.260.000.000.000.000.00o.oo0.000.01 h0.000.150.090.01 h0.060.020.000.000.000.000.01 q0.000.001.391.050.000.01 q0.000.000.000.010.080.060.000.020.050.020.000.000.000.000.000.030.070.00qhhth0.860.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00X0.860.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.140.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.140.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.610.610.000.000.000.000.00X0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.006,8740000680000X4505,6000022000200014000045.000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.02.40.00.00.03.039.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.035.127.00.00.00.00.0000022,156078030010 0.00 0.02,000000.00.00.038 8.14,437 67.60 0.00 0.02,800 67.600 0.00.04270005753201,96015001,000750000000150002000002500.00.00.00.00.069.830.00.035.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.0X0.00.00.00.00.00.04.40.00.00.00.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00X0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.020.540.180.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.361.27X0.000.001.270.000.000.000.000.000.000.00X0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0019.720.020.000.060.000.210.000.010.000.430.151.730.000.050.010.030.020.110.060.140.010.020.1111.100.010.000.060.013.551.000.8221.216.080.024.590.080.030.000.010.621.030.008.7414.030.060.364.996.990.080.010.220.930.180.2216.488.390.002.231.540.220.000.420.630.210.001.320.200.080.020.010.300.000.100.470.320.01322World Resources 1992-93

Energy and Materials 21Table 21.6EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBulgariaCzechoslovakiaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)Base Metals(million metric tons of metal content)Copper Lead Tin Zinc23.00 9.69 0.16 26.000.500.001.500.001.00XXX0.000.000.000.001.0010.003.00X1.001.00X4.0037.000.000.022.000.040.010.100.100.000.500.000.700.250.040.600.000.501.701.000.132.009.00efeeReeeRffRee0.000.000.00X0.000.000.00X0.000.000.000.000.000.000.070.00X0.000.090.000.300.000.190.830.091.001.001.000.001.000.005.002.000.183.002.000.645.001.000.072.0010.00ffffffIron and Ferra Alloys (million metric tons of metal content)Iron Manga- Chro- Molyb- Tung- Vana-Ore nese Nickel mium Cobalt denum sten dium3,214 0.0 0.87 11.20 0.02 0.00 0.09 0.00X30303027900323121303200250252301,600144023,5000.00.0X0.00.00.00.00.00.0X0.00.00.00.00.0X0.00.00.0X294.80.180.000.000.000.080.000.00X0.450.000.000.00XX0.000.000.000.000.000.166.621.900.00o.ooo.oo8.900.000.000.000.40o.ooo.oo0.000.000.00o.ooo.oo0.000.000.00X39.60X0.000.000.000.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.140.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.500.000.010.000.000.000.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.030.000.020.000.010.000.28fqqr>0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.002.63Light Metals(million metric tons)Bauxite Titani- Lithium(b) urn {c} {d}1,342 33.4 0.0000000302060030005000505003503000.00.00.00.01.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.032.00.00.00.00.00.00.0o.o8.40.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00X0.000.000.000.000.00XMetalReservesIndex (a)4.910.070.040.270.020.300.210.060.000.350.090.300.120.790.410.310.100.500.340.140.5014.82OCEANIAAustraliaNew CaledoniaNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsSources:Notes:14.00 14.00 0.20 19.00 10,480 39.9 5.81 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.06 0.03 4,490 29.3 0.377.00 14.00 0.20 19.00 10,200 39.9 1.27 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.03 4,440 29.3 0.370.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.0 4.54 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.0 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 280 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 f 0.000 0.0 0.007.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.0 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50 0.0 0.00U.S. Bureau of Mines and United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).a. Each country's metal reserves index is the mean of its 15 global shares calculated for each of the metals in the index; for example, a country with 30 percent of theworld nickel reserves, 15 percent of the world lead reserves, and no other metal reserves has a metal reserve index of (30 + 15) /15 = 3 percent, b. Dry weight, c. Sumof the two major mineral sources for titanium: rutile and ilmenite; data are expressed in contained titanium dioxide, d. Metal content; world total excludes Argentina,China, Namibia, Portugal, and the U.S.S.R, because data are not available, e. WRI estimate based on U.S. Bureau of Mines, Minerals Availability Program data. f. WRIestimate; the total of reserves for "other countries" was allocated to other producing countries, using production share as weight, g. UNESCO, h. U.S. Bureau of Mines,Mineral Facts and Problems 1985.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.8.847.571.090.030.150.02Sources and Technical NotesTable 21.1 Commercial EnergyProduction, 1979-89Source: United Nations Statistical Office(UNSO) U.N. Energy Tape (UNSO, NewYork, May 1991).Energy data are compiled by the UnitedNations Statistical Office, primarily from responsesto questionnaires sent to nationalgovernments, supplemented by official nationalstatistical publications and data fromintergovernmental organizations. When officialnumbers are not available, UNSO preparesestimates based on the professionaland commercial literature.Total production of commercially tradedfuels includes solid, liquid, and gaseousfuels and primary electricity production.Solid fuels include bituminous coal, lignite,peat, and oil shale burned directly. Liquidfuels include crude petroleum and naturalgas liquids. Gas includes natural gas andother petroleum gases. Primary electricity includeshydro, geothermal, wind, and nuclearpower generation expressed at theenergy value of electricity (1 kilowatt hour= 3.6 million joules). Electricity productiondata generally refer to gross production.Data for the Dominican Republic, Finland,France (including Monaco), Iceland, Mexico,Switzerland, the United States, Zambia,and Zimbabwe refer to net production.Gross production is the amount of electricityproduced by a generating station beforeconsumption by station auxiliaries andtransformer losses within the station are deducted.Net production is the amount ofelectricity remaining after these deductions.Typically, net production is 5-10 percentless than gross production. Energy productionfrom pumped storage is not includedin gross or net electricity generation.Electricity production includes both publicand self-producer power plants. Publicpower plants produce electricity for manyusers. They may be operated by private, cooperative,or governmental organizations.Self-producer power plants are operated byorganizations or companies to produce electricityfor internal applications, such as factoryoperations.Fuelwood, charcoal, bagasse, animal andvegetal wastes, and all forms of solar energyare excluded from production figures,even when traded commercially.One petajoule (10 15 joules) is the same as0.0009478 Quads (10 15 British ThermalUnits) and is the equivalent of 163,400"U.N. standard" barrels of oil or 34,140"U.N. standard" metric tons of coal. Theheat content of various fuels has been convertedto coal-equivalent and thenpetajoule-equivalent values using countryandyear-specific conversion factors. For example,a metric ton of bituminous coal producedin Argentina has an energy value of0.843 metric ton of standard coal equivalent(7 million kilocalories). A metric ton of bituminouscoal produced in Turkey has an energyvalue of 0.871 metric ton of standardcoal equivalent. The original national productiondata for bituminous coal were multipliedby these conversion factors and thenby 29.3076 x 10" 6 to yield petajoule equivalents.Other fuels were converted to coalequivalentand petajoule-equivalent termsin a similar manner.South Africa refers to the South AfricaCustoms Union: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia,South Africa, and Swaziland.For additional information refer to theUnited Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook1989.Table 21.2 Energy Consumptionand Requirements, 1979-89Sources: United Nations Statistical Office(UNSO), U.N. Energy Tape (UNSO, NewYork, May 1991); The World Bank, unpublisheddata (The World Bank, Washington,D.C., April 1991).Commercial energy consumption refers to"apparent consumption" and is defined asWorld Resources 1992-93323

21 Energy and Materialsdomestic production plus net imports,minus net stock increases, minus aircraftand marine bunkers, minus unallocatedquantities. Total consumption includes energyfrom solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels,plus primary electricity. Included under importsas percentage of consumption are net imports,minus stock increases, minus aircraftand marine bunkers, minus unallocatedquantities. A negative value (in parentheses)indicates that exports are greater thanimports.Total energy requirements in conventionalfuel equivalent is an estimate of the totalamount of energy that a nation requires ina given year. It differs from total commercialenergy consumption by the inclusion oftraditional fuels (fuelwood, charcoal, bagasse,animal and vegetal wastes) and bythe treatment of primary electricity.To calculate total requirements, primaryelectricity is valued on a fossil-fuel-avoidedbasis rather than an energy-output basis.For example, a hydroelectric power plantthat produces 1,000 kilowatt hours of electricityprovides the equivalent heat of 0.123metric ton of coal. However, more than0.123 metric ton of coal would be requiredto produce 1,000 kilowatt hours of electricity.Much of the energy released from coalcombustion in a power plant is used in themechanical work of turning dynamos or islost in waste heat, so less energy is embodiedin the final electricity than in the initialcoal. The efficiency of a thermal electricplant is the ratio between final electricityproduced and initial energy supplied. Althoughthis rating varies widely from countryto country and from plant to plant, theUnited Nations Statistical Office uses a standardfactor of 30 percent efficiency to estimatethe fossil fuel value of hydro,geothermal, wind, and nuclear electricity.Fuelwood and charcoal consumptiondata are estimated from population dataand country-specific per capita consumptionfigures. These per capita estimateswere prepared by the Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations (FAO)after an assessment of the available consumptiondata. Specific consumption ofnonconiferous fuelwood ranges from0.0016 cubic meter per capita per year inJordan to 0.9783 cubic meter per capita peryear in Benin.Similar estimates were prepared for coniferousfuelwood and for charcoal. Althoughthe energy values of fuelwood and charcoalvary widely, the United Nations StatisticalOffice uses standard factors of 0.33 metricton of coal equivalent per cubic meter offuelwood and 0.986 metric ton of coalequivalent per metric ton of charcoal.Bagasse production is based on sugar productiondata in the Sugar Yearbook of the InternationalSugar Organization. It isassumed that 3.26 metric tons of fuel bagasseat 50 percent moisture are producedper metric ton of extracted cane sugar. Theenergy of a metric ton of bagasse is valuedat 0.264 metric ton of coal equivalent.A petajoule is one quadrillion (10 15 )joules. A gigajoule is one billion (10 9 )joules. A megajoule is one million (10 6 )joules.Table 21.3 Commercial EnergyUse by Sector, 1979-89Sources: International Energy Agency(IEA), World Energy Statistics and Balances,Diskette Service (Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development/IEA,Paris, June 1991); The WorldBank, World Development Report 1991, TheChallenge of Development (The World Bank,Washington, D.C., 1991).Use by industry includes all use of commercialenergy by industry: iron and steel;chemical; nonf errous metals; nonmetallicmineral products such as glass, ceramic,and cement; paper, pulp, and printing;wood and wood products; food processing;textiles and leather; transport equipment;construction; machinery; nonenergy mining;and nonspecified. The transport sectorincludes transport in the industrial sectorand covers road, railway, air internal navigation,and nonspecified transport. It excludesinternational marine bunkers.Agriculture includes all uses of commercialenergy in agriculture. The commercial sectorincludes energy used in commercial andpublic services. Residential includes all energyfor private homes. For some countriesthat have difficulty providing a realisticbreakdown by fuel for industrial and othersectors, other may include energy used inthe agricultural and/or commercial and domesticsectors. It also includes nonenergyuses, military uses, and nonspecified uses.Table 21.4 Municipal Waste inOECD CountriesSources: Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), EnvironmentalData Compendium 1991 (OECD,Paris, 1991); United Nations Statistical Commissionand Economic Commission for Europe(ECE), Environment Statistics in Europeand North America (United Nations, NewYork, 1987).Waste data were collected by variousmeans and are not strictly comparableamong countries. OECD collects data usingquestionnaires completed by governmentrepresentatives.Annual municipal waste generation refers tothe household waste and bulky waste, aswell as comparable wastes from small commercialor industrial enterprises, and marketand garden residuals that are collectedand treated by or for municipalities.Landfill includes adequately managedand nonmanaged sites. Other includes mechanicalsorting, composting, and othernonspecified methods. The sum of the differentdisposal methods may not equal annualwaste generation, because treatmentmethods are not always mutually exclusiveand because recycling may be included.Table 21.5 Production, Consumption,and Reserves of SelectedMetals, 1975-90Sources: Production data for 1975,1980,and 1985: U.S. Bureau of Mines (U.S.BOM), Minerals Yearbook 1977,1983, and1989 (U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C., 1980,1984, and 1991).Production data for 1990: U.S. BOM, unpublisheddata (U.S. BOM, August 1991).Consumption data for aluminum, cadmium,copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc:World Bureau of Metal Statistics, WorldMetal Statistics (World Bureau of Metal Statistics,Ware, United Kingdom, December1979, December 1980, December 1985, July1990, August 1991, September 1991, October1991). Consumption data for zinc: InternationalLead and Zinc Study Group(ILZSG), Lead and Zinc Statistics 1960-1988(ILZSG, London, 1990). Consumption datafor mercury: Roskill Information ServicesLtd., Roskill's Metals Databook, 5th Edition1984 (Roskill, London, March 1984); RoskillInformation Services Ltd., Statistical Supplementto the Economics of Mercury, 4th Edition1978 (Roskill, London, 1980); Roskill InformationServices Ltd., The Economics of Mercury,7th Edition 1990 (Roskill, London,1990); U.S. BOM, Mineral Industry Surveys,Mercury in 1989 (U.S. Government PrintingOffice, Washington, D.C., 1989). Consumptiondata for iron ore: United Nations Conferenceon Trade and Development(UNCTAD), Intergovernmental Group ofExperts on Iron Ore, Iron Ore Statistics 1981-1990 (UNCTAD, Geneva, 1991); StatisticalOffice of the European Community (EU-ROSTAT), Iron and Steel Statistical Yearbook1980,1981, and 1990 (EUROSTAT, Luxembourg,1980,1981, and 1990); Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD), The Iron and Steel Industry in1981,1985, and 1989 (OECD, Paris, 1983,1987, and 1991); International Iron andSteel Institute, Steel Statistical Yearbook 1985and 1989 (International Iron and Steel Institute,Brussels, 1985 and 1989). Consumptiondata for crude steel: International Ironand Steel Institute, Steel Statistical Yearbook1985 and 1989 (International Iron and SteelInstitute, Brussels, 1985 and 1989).Reserves and reserve base data: U.S.BOM, Mineral Commodity Summaries 1991(U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,D.C., 1991).The U.S. BOM publishes production,trade, consumption, and other data on commoditiesfor the United States as well as forall other countries of the world (dependingon availability of reliable data). The dataare based on information from governmentmineral and statistical agencies, the UnitedNations, and U.S. and foreign technical andtrade literature.The World Bureau of Metal Statistics publishesconsumption data on the metals presented,excluding mercury, iron, and steel.Data on the metals included were suppliedby metal companies, government agencies,trade groups, and statistical bureaus. Obviouslyincorrect data have been revised, butmost data were compiled and reportedwithout adjustment or retrospective revisions.The countries listed represent the top 10producers and the top 10 consumers ofeach material in 1990.The annual production data are the metalcontent of the ore mined for copper, lead,324World Resources 1992-93

Energy and Materials 21mercury, nickel, tin, and zinc. Aluminum(bauxite) and iron ore production are expressedin gross weight of ore mined (marketableproduct). Iron ore production refersto iron ore, iron ore concentrates, and ironore agglomerates (sinter and pellets). Cadmiumis the production of the refined metal.Crude steel production is defined as the totalof usable ingots, continuously cast semifinishedproducts, and liquid steel for castings.The United Nations' definition ofcrude steel is the equivalent of the term"raw steel" as used by the United States.Annual consumption of metal refers to thedomestic use of refined metals, which includemetals refined from either primary(raw) or secondary (recovered) materials.Metal used in a product that is then exportedis considered to be consumed by theproducing country rather than by the importingcountry. Data on mercury consumptionmust be viewed with caution; theyinclude estimates on consumption of secondarymaterials, which are generally notreported. Consumption of iron ore is thequantity of iron ore and concentrates reportedas delivered to consuming industries.Data for Brazil, China, the Republic ofKorea, and the U.S.S.R. are calculated as apparentconsumption, the net of productionplus imports minus exports. Such a consumptionnumber makes no allowance forstock inventories. This can lead to discrepanciesin the published consumption dataevident in the latest report by the UNCTADIntergovernmental Group of Experts onIron Ore. For example, Brazil had a "reportedconsumption" (domestic and importedores consumed in iron and steelplants, as well as ores consumed for nonmetallurgicaluses) of 23.7 million metrictons in 1990, compared to 40 million metrictons apparent consumption. Apparent consumptionof iron ore was chosen in Table21.5, because "reported consumption" datawere only available for a limited number ofcountries and years. Because different countriesreport different grades of iron ore, consumptiondata are not strictly comparableamong countries. Because world consumptionof iron ore is roughly equal to worldproduction, world production data wereused for world consumption totals. Worldwidestock inventories are assumed to benegligible. Crude steel consumption is calculatedas apparent consumption. The InternationalIron and Steel Institute convertedimports and exports into crude steel equivalentby using a factor of 1.3/(1 + 0.175c),where c is the domestic proportion of crudesteel that is continuously cast. Such an adjustmentavoids distortion of the export orimport share relative to domestic production.The world reserve base life index and theworld reserves life index are expressed inyears remaining. They were computed bydividing the 1990 world reserve base andworld reserves by the respective world productionrate of 1990. The underlying assumptionis a constant world production atthe 1990 level and capacity.The reserve base is the portion of the mineralresource that meets grade, quality,thickness, and depth criteria defined by currentmining and production practices. It includesboth measured and indicatedreserves and refers to those resources thatare both currently economic and marginallyeconomic, as well as some of those thatare currently subeconomic.Mineral reserves are those depositswhose quantity and grade have been determinedby samples and measurements andcan be profitably recovered at the time ofthe assessment. Changes in geologic information,technology, costs of extraction andproduction, and prices of mined productcan affect the reserve estimates. Reservesdo not signify that extraction facilities are inplace and operative.Table 21.6 World Reserves ofMajor Metals, 1990Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines (U.S. BOM),Mineral Commodity Summaries 1991 (U.S.BOM, Washington, D.C., 1991); U.S. BOM,Minerals Yearbook 1985 and 1989 (U.S. BOM,Washington, D.C., 1987 and 1991); U.S.BOM, Mineral Facts and Problems 1985 (U.S.BOM, Washington, D.C., 1985); U.S. BOM,Minerals Availability Program, unpublisheddata, (U.S. BOM, Washington, D.C.,January 1991); Sam H. Patterson, Horace F.Kurtz, Jane C. Olson, et ah, World Bauxite Resources(U.S. Geological Survey Paper 1076-B, Washington, D.C., 1986); United NationsEducational, Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO), Geology of Tungsten(UNESCO, Paris, 1986).Mineral reserves are those depositswhose quantity and grade have been determinedby samples and measurements andcan be profitably recovered at the time ofthe assessment. Changes in geologic information,technology, costs of extraction andproduction, and prices of mined productcan affect the reserve estimates. Reservesdo not signify that extraction facilities are inplace and operative.Estimates for the countries holding thelargest reserves came from the most recentU.S. BOM Mineral Commodity Summaries1991. It usually aggregates estimates forcountries with minor reserves under the category"other countries" (2 to 20 percent ofworld total). Other published informationor unpublished data from mineral specialistsof the U.S. BOM were used to fill in thedata for these missing countries. In caseswhere no published or unpublished datawere available to disaggregate the "othercountries" category, WRI allocated the totalreserve estimate of "other countries" byusing reserve estimates of the U.S. BOM'sMinerals Availability Program or productiondata as weights. This assumes that allcountries with reserves are extracting themetal. In cases where there is a nonproducerwith significant reserves, it will notbe reflected in the table and the disaggregatedreserves for the "other countries" willbe an overestimate. WRI estimates have tobe seen as preliminary and must be interpretedwith caution.World reserves total may differ slightlyfrom those in Table 21.5 because of differencesin rounding procedures.Each country's metal reserves index is themean of its 15 global shares calculated foreach of the metals in the index. For example,a country with 30 percent of the worldnickel reserves, 15 percent of the world leadreserves, and no other metal reserves has ametal reserve index of (30 + 15)/15 = 3 percent.World Resources 1992-93325

22. FreshwaterFreshwater is essential not only to the maintenance ofhuman life, but also to the development and functionof modern industry and agriculture. Freshwater resourcesare unequally distributed around the world,however, and people routinely impact the supply andquality. They control, dam, capture, and channel freshwaterfor power generation, irrigation, and industrialand domestic uses. Freshwater streams carry manyurban and industrial wastes as well as eroded soilfrom wastelands, croplands, and urban development.The freshwater resource easiest to access is the renewablecomponent (precipitation minus evapotranspiration,see Table 22.1), which flows through aquifers,streams, and lakes. The global renewable resourcestotal over 40,000 cubic kilometers, of which about3,200 is withdrawn for domestic, industrial, and agriculturaluses. Many countries, particularly those inSouthwest Asia and Northern Africa, rely on riverflows from neighboring countries, and governmentsresort to international agreements (such as that betweenSudan and Egypt regulating the flow of theNile) to protect their water supplies. Additionalsources of freshwater are ancient, nonrenewable aquifersthat can be tapped to fuel intensive irrigated agricultureand urban life (e.g., the Ogallala Aquifer in theUnited States and the Nubian Aquifer in Libya). Theseaquifers can be permanently depleted.Desalinization of salt or brackish water is a capitalandenergy-intensive source of freshwater but one thathas become a significant portion of total supply on theArabian peninsula. Many arid countries, such as Afghanistan,Sudan, Egypt, the former People's DemocraticRepublic of Yemen, the Islamic Republic of Iran,and Iraq, annually withdraw over 1,000 cubic metersof freshwater per capita; most of this water is used inirrigation. Some countries (Egypt, Libya, Israel, Qatar,Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the formerArab Republic of Yemen, and Malta) use almost all oreven more than their total renewable resources—tapping nonrecharging aquifers and desalinizationplants. Some countries in the more humid and temperatezones also use large amounts of freshwater. TheUnited States, for example, used 2,162 cubic meters percapita in 1985, and its total use is higher than that ofany other country. Canada, Bulgaria, the Netherlands,Portugal, Romania, the U.S.S.R., and Australia also useover 1,000 cubic meters per capita.Table 22.2 provides data on the numbers of largedams, their construction rates, and hydroelectric resources.The number of dams over 15 meters in heightincreased almost sevenfold since 1950. Half of all largedams are in China. These structures provide for themassive storage of water to control flooding, redistributeuneven river flows, generate power, irrigate newlands, and ensure the supply of water for a variety ofdomestic and industrial uses. There are, however, potentialenvironmental costs to large dams. Large damschange the flow, temperature, and nutrient characterof rivers. They interrupt the movement of aquatic animalsand interrupt freshwater flows to coastal estuarineenvironments. They can flood the lands andhomes of people and the habitat of wildlife.Table 22.2 also shows the hydropower potential andcurrent state of its exploitation for many countries ofthe world. Hydropower resources are exploited differentlyin each country, depending on inherent energyrequirements, climatic variables, and maintainance requirements.In addition, countries often use only a fractionof their installed capacity over the course of ayear. The importance of hydropower to total energyproduction also varies widely. Canada was the largestproducer of hydropower in 1989 with over 290,000 gigawatt-hours,followed by the United States, U.S.S.R.,Brazil, Norway, and China.Dams permanently change the normal hydrology ofa region. They interrupt the flow of sediments to thesea, and the buildup of those sediments behind damscan quickly diminish the storage capacity of reservoirs.Sediment loads are important for the agriculturalfertility of many floodplains, as indicators of therelative magnitude of upstream erosion, and for maintainingthe integrity of delta lands. Table 22.3 providesinformation on materials transport, total river flows,and basin area for 260 gauging stations.Some large rivers, such as the Mississippi, todaytransport relatively low amounts of sediments andother materials for the size of their basins (0.64 metrictons per hectare). The Mississippi earned its nickname,"the Big Muddy," long before its basin was heavilydammed for power, flood control, and irrigation.Other major rivers transport considerably more materialfrom each hectare of their watersheds. The HwangHo (at its mouth) transports about 14 metric tons ofmaterials for each hectare of its watershed, and theBrahmaputra transports only slightly more. Much ofthese high loads is due to human activity, but soil typeand typography play a large role.World Resources 1992-93327

22 FreshwaterTable 22.1 Freshwater Resources and WithdrawalsWORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuelaAnnualInternal RenewableWater Resources1990Per CapitaTotal (000 cubic(cubic km) meters)40,673.00 c4,184.00 c18.90158.00 c26.001.0028.00 c3.60 c208.000.20141.00 c38.40 c1.02181.0074.000.301.80cc30.00 c110.00164.00 c3.0053.00226.00 c31.00 c14.804.00 c232.00 C0.7040.009.00 c62.00 c0.402.2030.0058.009.0014.00ccc261.00 c6.30 c23.20 c160.00 c11.5050.0030.006.96 c76.00 c11.503.7566.00 c1,019.00 c96.00 c23.00 c6,945.00 c0.0516.002,901.0095.0034.5020.0018.95116.0011.00102.008.30357.40175.00144.005.10 c2,478.0010,377.00 c694.00300.00 c5,190.00468.00 c1,070.00314.00241.00 c94.00 c40.00200.00 c59.00 c856.007.696.460.7515.775.480.783.110.6618.500.5348.406.761.9790.775.870.740.0368.182.35140.053.503.5332.8731.410.592.2590.840.153.341.076.620.201.991.193.70X1.972.310.873.1538.541.521.421.198.822.783.330.463.5828.3111.352.3716.260.20X109.3731.513.342.793.6112.611.6919.853.294.0345.2159.553.989.9434.9621.4741.0234.5235.5333.6329.12231.7321.981.79496.2818.8643.37Annual River FlowsAnnual WithdrawalsFrom Other To OtherTotal PercentageCountries Countries Year of (cubic of Water(cubic km) (cubic km) Data km) Resources {a}0.00XX1972 0.041987 c 0.071987 c 0.1820001987 c 3,240.0081987 c 144.0030.70 1980 3.0016X 1987 c 0.480X 1987 c 0.110X 1980 0.091X 1987 c 0.151X 1987 c 0.10X 1987 c 0.40300.20XX17.00XXX0.00XX0.00621.00X0.0056.50XXX19.00XXXXXX0.000.00XX7.000.000.00XX30.0047.00X12.00X0.00X100.00XXX0.60XXXX0.00XXX0.00XXXXX0.00XXX0.00X300.00X1760.00XXXX220.00XX65.00461.000.00XXX0.0019871987198719731985ccccX 1987 cX 1987 cX 1987 cX 1982X 1970X 1987 cX 1987 cX 1987 cX 1987 cX 1987 c0.00 1985 e0.00 1984XXX 1987 c1987 c19780.00 19740.30 1985X 1987X 1987X 1987XXXXXX56.50XXX0.00XXXX0.00XXX0.00XXXXX0.00XXX0.00XXXXXXXXXXXXXccc1987 c1987 c1987 c1987 c1987 c197019771987 c19701987 c198519701987 c19701987 c1987 c19621987 c1986197019751987 c197519701987 c19701975197519751975197519851987 c19761987 c1987 c19751987 c1987 c19711987 c1987 c1987 c196519700.010.040.710.0156.400.012.210.060.020.300.740.011.090.050.132.8316.300.161.360.730.3611.000.760.140.293.630.151.360.370.819.2018.600.290.480.092.300.200.700.361.22697.000.030.0242.201.358.102.971.000.730.041.340.3254.200.891.300.15467.00133.0027.601.2435.0416.805.345.565.400.436.100.460.654.101012970200100710404412210Per Capita(cubicmeters)6602441614326982020301482735152068281,2021148513335115184834546231,6752215947316415375011532 771 4412407181441153000510510112315510141511319130140220150104423201991674041,08941436403252022861291,692117X1,752779868453241139465081579013707441492,1624761,0591842121,6251795617,6161112941,181241387Sectoral Withdrawals(percent) {b}Domestic Industry Agriculture8 23 697 5 8822 4 7414 10 762851410588528 5 6736 0 6446 19 359 2 8921 5 7416 2 8248 5 4728 21 517 d 5 d 88 d62 27 1122 11 6713 63 8622269113 523 876 6311 6222 5613 6010 750 9917 491 974 847 7712582743 d 91 d10 66811172735103127222715134212166 d2462131245731615216213325863149521011495792447625122712 d18910436417115196643158340170251378251174241080726417857821113846 d23185175163079531154689289976799937425806017267949790889898989746891868654773542 d59738540894390997872899146328World Resources 1992-93

AnnualInternal RenewableWater ResourcesTotal(cubic km)1990Per Capita(000 cubicmeters)Annual River FlowsFrom OtherCountries(cubic km)To OtherCountries(cubic km)Year ofDataAnnual WithdrawalsTotal(cubickm)Percentageof WaterResources {a}Per Capita(cubicmeters)Freshwater 22Table 22.1Sectoral Withdrawals(percent) |b}Domestic IndustryASIA 10,485.00 3.37 1987 c 1,531.00 15 526 8Afghanistan50.00 3.02X1987 c 26.1152 1,436 1 0Bahrain0.00 0.00X1975 e 0.31X100 609 60 36Bangladesh1,357.00 11.74 1000.00 1987 c 22.50211 3 1Bhutan95.00 c 62.66X1987 c 0.0215 36 10Cambodia88.10 10.68 410.001987 c 0.5269 5 1ChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaUSSR.2,800.000.901,850.002,530.00117.5034.001.70547.000.7067.00 C63.000.00270.004.80456.0024.601,082.00170.002.00298.00323.000.022.200.6043.207.60110.00196.000.30376.00 c1.001.502,321.00 c10.0056.308.4018.0028.0011.00110.00170.0079.0017.0045.156.00170.0050.00179.401.000.0310.00405.0049.4034.0037.00110.30176.0042.50120.00150.004,384.002.471.282.1714.022.081.800.374.430.162.921.450.0066.321.6226.3011.0525.968.881.362.435.180.060.160.222.510.611.973.520.195.600.120.604.663.087.510.852.001.792.1522.113.031.301.024.490.57671.9413.443.132.720.070.6896.151.293.311.592.8021.116.522.116.2915.220.00X 19800.00 0.00 1985235.00 XXX 1975XX 1987197566.000.450.000.40XX0.00X0.00XXXX0.00170.000.000.000.000.000.0027.9069.007.000.00X0.000.0011.3034.004.10187.0062.602.003.0015.0082.0017.0013.50109.000.000.007.604.000.0080.008.006.8031.60171.001.004.007.500.00115.00300.00X0.000.00XXXXX0.86XXXXXX0.00XX0.000.0030.00X69.00XXXX1986198019751987 c19761974 e1987 c197519751987 C1987 c1987 c1975 e197519751975 e1975 e197519701976 e1987 c19851980 e1987 c1987 c19751987 c197019801980198019801970XXXXXX 1985 fX 198020.50 1985 fXX 1983 f19803.00X0.00X0.00X0.00XXXXX17.00XXX200.00X1980 f19801987 C1979 f1980 f1985 f19781985 f19801980198019801985 f19801985198019801980460.000.54380.0016.5945.4042.801.90107.800.4514.1610.700.500.990.759.420.553.962.680.48153.4029.500.153.600.196.303.3431.9015.600.905.071.471.93359.000.203.139.0314.185.801.463.7040.0041.229.136.955.380.090.7956.200.040.0214.472.0016.8010.5025.4045.253.983.2028.358.77353.00166018139438820412117X01622022433966316432159188299114712915137276113222627125023019216030161241262438462807612961,3624,5754479231731,6492982382282717652721031553252,0536934152558450344959931756581X1,167726944179171,600379289774728668545721502349267983119681,0234894721,0621,1441,1744795025073931,3306 77 d 2 d3 413 114 9316 d1729111164811231174311836454527424 d11134513619117233012161014893116144276520161581236232016655 d336161432104302731312126851210619 d9922541873853868278569706829556374274586172603733265573777229Agriculture9949654948791 d9376879279 d5065737548285476290959498613847496839057 d807894933376845594331520186336610591316348244859629431265OCEANIA2,011.00 c 75.961987 c 23.001907 64 2Australia343.00 20.48 0.00 0.00 1975 17.8051,306 65 2Fiji28.55 c 38.12 0.00 0.00 1987 c 0.03037 20 20New Zealand397.00 117.49 0.00 0.00 1980 1.200379 46 10Papua New Guinea801.00 c 199.70XX 1987 c 0.10025 29 22Solomon Islands44.70 C 149.00 0.00 0.00 1987 c 0.00018 40 20Sources: Bureau of Geological and Mining Research, National Geological Survey, France; Institute of Geography, National Academy of Sciences, U.S.S.R.; Eurostat;and the International Desalination Association.Notes: a. Water resources include both internal renewable resources and river flows from other countries, b. Unless otherwise noted, sectoral withdrawal percentagesare estimated for 1987. c. Estimated by the Institute of Geography, U.S.S.R. d. Sectoral percentages date from the year of other annual withdrawal data.e. Withdrawal quantities include desalination capacities as of June 1988. f. Reported to Eurostat.Regional and world totals may include countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.343360444940World Resources 1992-93329

22 FreshwaterTable 22.2 Large Dams and Hydroelectric ResourcesWORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela8X39510070XXXX25XX044X11X482 c 43 12794 24 244X36 50 X2XXX1X32 521 X134X3316XX46,6631,530XXXXXX6084233349X1622X9 350 74XX4 300 21 XX X842XX76 49 43503 16XXX 168254XXX5,4598 1,1858853339453125632516 16 148742640 43 28175 25 30 X03 506X366 131 X5 334X23XXX60XXX4XX07200XXXX76XXXX7XXXX1XXXXXXXXXXX1,200XX39XX50X3X0X0X17XXX14 d695147516X02X1162XX33,50018,5001104,50072,000 aXX40,000 a3,000 a2,500 a6,800 aXX1,90040020,000X5310,200530,00030,90016,000Installed HydropowerCapacity, 1989Total617.10118.8840.2850.412XX(gigawatts)0.0140.0320.52PX0.022X0.0010.1200.895X2.4450.0010.2300.125X1.0720.047X0.4980.0020.081Large Dams, 1986TotalOver 15PercentChangeTotalOver 30 TotalHydropower Potential(gigawatt-hours/year)Meters Since Meters Under Gross Exploit-In Height 1977 In Height Construction Theoretical able36,5627,685 1,02630 50 26 13 12,000X10131 XXXX XXXX XXXX 150,000 100,000 aXXX XX800 a885256 586,605 1,445172,572 115,000 aXXX XXXX X X X1XX 50,000 a22 57X068,000 14,000 aX5 XX XXXXXX650,000 162,000XXX 32,500XX6712,782 10,0002X 26,000 aX X30010 150 30,000 a31 XX 2,000 a11,000 a1210 XX10 0XXX 400,000 23,06131X XXX 6,000 a10,000 aXMicro-hydroXXXX0.000HydropowerGeneration, 1989Total(gigawatt-Percentofhours) Capacity2,094,009 38.744,156 26.72269.11,355 37.5XX2 XX0.0120.003XXX1032,629X1.436.756.8X74X 38.4X22.837.815.9X29.923971,250X6,4000.00120.0016550.160 675XX X4,820XX0.0080.0020.000XX0.1060.1460.045X0.0590.6222.078XX1.9000.0560.0000.0020.0050.5500.2250.0420.2590.0040.0640.1552.7722.2450.633157.256X X XXXX1,239,777 592,982 57.924222,953 37,000 0.735X X 0.049X4,73795,405548196,000455500,000XXX528,500535,000173,0003,020,400181,0001,290,000491,00067,500X1,839,600X32,000335,0002,5173,31943,370430240,000335159,62417,277 a16,233 aX376,000390,00090,000 a1,194,900132,433418,200115,00063,10078,000412,00012,8404,880250,0000.1650.4050.4380.0700.1300.0207.8250.1030.551X88.74677.1756.5940.34244.6222.2906.3170.9080.0025.4402.2750.1891.1967.000172X2,469X3200.002XXXX3170.0120.0060.003XX0.0000.004 b0.0000.0020.0000.000X0.0030.0030.0040.003X0.001X0.000572170251021,15750XX2,210171XX06005172156155366915,2526,7022,660598,40522.832.561.6X51.341.8X56.6X45.1X34.144.743.1X19.721.20.3XX13.334.9XX0.112.526.258.427.114.36.450.921.634.148.043.4XXXXXX0.030X3,3288251.719.1

Freshwater 22Table 22.2ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviau.s.s.n.(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)OCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsSources:TotalOver 15MetersIn Height23,5552X1X118,820461,13744218X2,228466690X1536X32X4014X303771281103X1XX3,945981231510814665046819170131114154403X1024525811337371411445351231324974092833XLarge Dams, 1986Percent TotalInstalled HydropowerCapacity, 1989Hydropower PotentialChange Over 30 Total (gigawatt-hours/year)(gigawatts)Since1977MetersIn HeightUnderConstructionGrossTheoreticalExploitableTotalMicrohydro28 179 22 264,000 30,000X X X3XX 1,261 51526XX 38XX X 74,000175,000 98,000X X3,568 615118.846X X XX X 0.290 XX0XX X XXXXXXXXXX1 00.230XX X0.334 0.006X X83,000 0.010X14 2,287 183 d 5,922,180 1,923,304 30.000 3.87570 18 2XX 0.001 0.00114 220 160 d 2,637,800 600,100 18.504 0.20769 25 8 338,800 709,000 1.850 0.013 b24 15 7 36,286 6,784 1.804X60 5 5X 70,000 0.120XX X X1,600 1,600 0.000 0.000110X 741 71 d 717,600 130,524 37.409XXX4 187X87X 0.01123 45.00023 52 75 77,201 3,290 2.339 0.010XX0 XX2 XX02 XXXX150,227 22,638 0.200 0.0031,000 1,000 0.246 0.003 b227 19 219,900 108,600 1.437 0.009X X X XXXXX X1X X1X0 336,000 160,000 a 0.258XX729,500 144,000 0.160 0.009XXXXX21 1725,443 15,531 2.897 0.109133 9 136,654 11,877 2.154 0.006XXX X XXXXXXXXXXXXXX XX X20 13 2 8,000 7,255 0.940 0.00903 05,000 4,500 0.898X286 25 2819,782 5,571 2.268 0.00361 88 65 432,986 215,000 6.598 0.012XX XX XX XX XX XX0.325 0.030X X X X X XXX X XXXXX1,680 202168.94944 48 2 20,000 17,000 0.690X27 66 7008 75,000 53,700 10.838 0.32036 9798X 1.402 0.0142 3726,410 15,000 1.975X11 5228,600 10,826 2.920 0.23000 0 12070 0.010X07 0581 47,000 20,000 2.586 0.11021 167266,000 72,000 24.815

22 FreshwaterTable 22.3 Sediment Loads of Selected RiversAnnualAnnual MaterialsBasin Discharge TransportArea Rainfall (cubic (metric• CatctimentStationAFRICACameroon• MbamGoura42,30018.1 0.67• Sanaga Nachtigal77,00037.1 0.28Chad• ChartSarh193,00010.2 0.01• ChariChagona 515,00028.3 0.03•Logone Kousseri85,00012.0 0.15Egypt •Nile Delta 2,977,235 30.0 0.00Kenya• Ewaso Ngiro15,300 X X 1.92• TanaKamburu9,520 1,200 3.2 2.34•TanaGrand Falls 17,400 X X 21.03(km2) (mm/yr) km) tons/ha) ' Catchment StationAnnualAnnualMaterialsBasin Discharge TransportArea Rainfall (cubic (metric(km2) (mm/yr) km) tons/ha)• Tsanaga Bogo 1,535 0.3 2.01•Logone• Pende• Tana• Thiba• ThikaMoundouDobaGarissa4DD133,970 X14,300 X31,7001,97033112.54.40.650.25X0.8X3.810.773.88Lesotho • Sengu White Hill 10,900 1.40 • Sengu Seaka 19,875 2.10Morocco• GrouDam5,550 500 0.3 1.62 • N'FissL. Takerkoust 1,796 560 0.2 5.30• Lakhdar S. Driss3,000 661 0.5 3.66 • Oum Er Rbia Imfout30,000 546 3.3 2.20• Moulouya Mechra Homadi 51,500 306 1.5 1.30 • Tessaout M. Youssef1,441 656 0.4 11.60• NekorMB Abdelkrim 780 X 0.1 79.00Madagascar ' Shahamalato Dam 316 1,800 9.00Mozambique • Limpopo Mouth 410,000 5.0 0.80 • Zambesi Mouth 1,200,000 223.0 0.17NigeriaBenueBunsuruCrossGagereGongolaHadejiaJamariKadunaKanoMisare• Orange• Rufiji' Congo• Austral• Glen Avilin• GwaiMakurdiZurmiIkomKaura NamodaBareWudilBungaKadunaChiromawaKariMouthMouthMouthDamDamBembezi304,3005,90016,9005,67055,5001,7407,98018,4206,9805,6001,020,000180,0004,012,7954,2501,00014,4001,5258183,3209561,0289181,0011,2131,000950100.41.434.01.66.40.22.15.31.20.711.09.01,252.00.50.20.20.434.380.722.920.773.554.590.522.190.090.170.940.183.503.200.14• Niger• Niger• Niger• Niger• Rima• Sokoto" Taraba• Watari• YobeBaroKojiBaroMouthWamakoGidan DokaGassolGwarzo Rd.Gashua730,4001,080,9001,113,2271,210,00035,37012,59021,3001,45062,400South AfricaXTanzaniaXZaire1,750ZimbabweX• Jotsholo Dam14,860 X 0.3 1.10X• Rinette Dam6,000 X 0.2 2.70X• Umsweswe Upper Claw1,990 750 0.1 0.24NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICACanada• FraserMouth220,000 X 112.0 0.91 • Nelson Mouth1,150,000 X 1104 0.00' Mackenzie Mouth1,800,000 X 302.7 1.04 • St. Lawrence Mouth1,025,000 X 337.4 0.58El Salvador• Lempa San Marcos 18,176 X X 3.79Guatemala• Motagua Morales14,452 X X 5.04Haiti• Peligre Dam6,615 1,780 2.5 15.00Mexico• Colorado Mouth635,000 X 20.2 0.00United States • Brazos Mouth110,0007.0 1.45Mississippi Mouth3,267,000580.3 0.64• Columbia Mouth670,000251.3 0.12Rio Grande Mouth670,0003.2 X• Copper Mouth60,00039.0 11.67 " Susitna Mouth50,00040.0 5.00•EelMouth8,000X 17.50 • YukonMouth770,000195.5 1.47• Hudson Mouth20,00012.0 0.50SOUTH AMERICAArgentina• Parana Mouth2,304,121 1,750 470.0 0.39 • Uruguay Concordia 388,335 1,500 125.0 0.39• NegroMouth100,000 X 30.0 1.30Bolivia• Cachi-Mayu1,680 600 0.5 72.50 • Pilcomayo Talula6,340 428 0.6 19.87• Matacu3,300 407 0.3 15.75 • Pilcomayo Ida13,200 458 2.0 34.92Brazil• Amazon Obidos4,640,000X 2.00 • San Francisco Mouth640,00097.0 0.09• Amazon Mouth6,150,0006,300.0 1.46 • Tocantins Itupiranga744,600X 0.77• Araguaia Santa-Isabel 372,000X 0.88Colombia • Magdalena Mouth 240,000 237.0Peru• Chancay2,3250.7 2.06 • Jeguetepegue 3,625 0.5• Chira16,5304.8 23.796.95Venezuela • Orinoco 567.9 • Tuy P. San Juan 6,610 1,250 2.38ASIABangladesh • Brahmaputra Delta 559,200 1,750 • Ganges/BrahmaputraMouths 1,480,000Burma • Irrawaddy Prome 367,000 1,750 427.9 9.03China• Bailong Bikou dam 27,600 X X 3.38 • MiheYeyuan dam7860.2 14.69• DaduGongzui76,400 X 49.5 4.77 • Min Chiang Yingxinwan 18,90012.0 4.97• DalingDalinghe23,200 X 2.1 14.90 • NanyaInlake Gate8961.5 15.40• Han Shui Danjiangkou 95,217 X 38.2 8.39 • Shangyou Dam2,7503.0 1.55• HuaiBangbu261,500 X 26.2 1.53 • WukiHuangtankou 2,4842.9 2.42• HutuoGangnan dam 15,900 X XXXXX 8.69 • Xi Jiang Wuzhou355,000252.8 2.60• Hwang Ho Liujiaxia dam 181,700 X 2.90 • XiliaoHongshan24,486X 10.78• Hwang Ho Lanzhou222,551 XX4.35 • Yalong Ertan110,75050.2 2.18• Hwang Ho Longmen 497,55920.71 • Yangtze Fengjie987,711419.8 5.31• Hwang Ho Xiaolangdi 694,155 470 22.45 • Yangtze Datong 1,807,200921.7 2.80• Hwang Ho Sanmenxia 752,400 XXX 42.9 24.80 • Yongding Guanting dam 47,600X 4.64• Hwang Ho Mouth770,00049.0 14.03 • Yongding Guanting50,8004.4 19.44• LiaoTieling166,3005.7 2.40India• Batra• Bhakra• Bhakra• Bhima• Bhima• Damodar• Gandhi SagarMarolSutlejGobindsagarTakaliYedgirRhondieChambal4,90156,87657,00033,19669,86320,00023,025XXXXXX8642.516.114.611.220.59.84.81.357.987.734.246.5915.6412.53• Krishna• Mahanadi• Maithon• Mata Tila• Nira• Nizam Sagar• Panchet HillSrisaikamNarajBetwaSaratiManjiraDamodar206,041132,0346,29420,7207,20021,69410,6901,1001,3801,000X7788521,630852765X1,2501,3001,140X8001,300144.6154.6191.5192.01.61.612.00.115.669.890.22.36.018.54.14.00.130.190.050.331.553.920.804.831.415.675.1417.035.771.438.9713.62332World Resources 1992-93

Freshwater 22Table 22.3ASIA (continued)India (continued)IndonesiaIranIraqJapanNepalPakistanSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyViet NamEUROPEAlbaniaAustriaFranceGermanyHungaryItalyNetherlandsPolandRomaniaSpainSwitzerlandU.S.S.R.OCEANIAAustraliaNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSources:Notes:• Catchment• Ganges• Godavari• Hayurakshi• Hirakud• Kosi• Koyna• Krishna• Cimanuk• Karangkates• Araks•Dez• Jajerud• Tigris• Ishikari• Tone• Gandak• Chenab• Ghambir• Gilgit• Gorband• Haro•Haro• Haro• Hunza• Euphrates• Chao Phraya• Klong• Lam Pao• Mekong•Nan• Euphrates• Red• Drin• Durrache• Drac• Durance• Durance• Loire• Inn• Isar• Danube•Raba• Adige• Adige•Po• Rhine•Oder• Danube• Aragon• Cacin• Cahamares• Cardoner• Guadalete• Guadalquivir• Guadalquivir• Jarama• Lozoya• Majaceite• Mundo• Riaza• Linth•Amur• Dnieper• Don• Kolyma• Lena•Ob• Indigirka• Burdekin• Murray• Haast•FlyStationCalcuttaMouthMahanadiChatraKoynaKarodJatigedeAraxeM. Reza Chah PFarahnazi P.BaghdadEbestuMatsudoAlexandriaDanda Shah B.Alam B.KaroraKhanpurSanjwalGarialaDainyor B.TabgaNakornsawanBan ThamLower Lam PaoMukdahamPhitsanulokeKebanHanoiCan DejeBachentalSautetSerre-PonconCadaracheNantesReisachPlattlingNagymarosArpasPescantinaBoara PisaniPiacenzaGozdowiceMouthYesaBermejalesPalmacesSan PonsBornosPedro MarinTranco d. BeasEl VadoRio SequilloGuadalcacinTalaveLin. d. ArroyoWalenseeMouthVerkhned.RazdorskayaMouthMouthMouthMouthClareMouthMouthBasinArea(km2)748,634310,0001,86082,62162,0001,8905,4621,4602,05043,50017,245692471,60613,00012,00045,31233,00051826,1486347771,7993,05513,152120,650103,47025,4665,130391,00025,19163,836119,866129,6601,060,0001,02061,000Rainfall(mm/yr)XX1,3211,369X5,080X2,7002,032XXX800X1,500XXXXXXXXX500XX1,250X1,2505001,75012,368 1,75055 X990 1,3003,500 X11,920 X121,005 7509,760 1,2508,964 1,000183,262 7506,610 75010,954 X11,954 X42,030 X143,360 X109,400 750810,000 X2,191 672300 740275 567292 1,0201,361 1,0256,300 612558 1,050426 962385 849680 1,253754 495756 648600 X1,850,000 X428,851 X373,811 X640,000 X2,500,000 X2,500,000 X360,000 X640X6,500XAnnualDischarge(cubickm)314.4X0.840.557.22.85.32.02.15.09.50.4126.9X15.0XX0.121.50.70.30.60.812.130.5XX1.4473.58.720.0123.211.80.10.92.66.526.79.74.874.41.2XXXX14.4206.01.20.10.10.10.41.10.20.20.20.20.10.10.8325.0XX71.0514.0385.055.0X22.06.077.0AnnualMaterialsTransport(metrictons/ha)5.493.1021.424.7130.814.022.8954.7944.334.1510.084.450.341.522.7343.2516.9137.3024.7732.2021.2522.8914.7942.490.361.063.181.254.791.285.1711.9011.906.737.004.091.200.043.270.290.280.241.070.912.480.040.010.837.7217.297.859.2218.042.3218.4512.1117.1911.704.179.273.500.280.030.140.090.050.010.390.270.28127.304.92• Catchment• Sina• Tunga• Tungabhadra• Tungabhadra• Tungabhadra•Ukai• Selorejo* Karaj• Safid RudStationWadakalShimogaMarabattiBharapuramAmir KabirMandjil• Tigris/Euphrates Mouth• YodoHirakata• Indus• Indus• Indus• Kabul• Poonch• Soan•Soan•Nan• Ping•Ping•Wang•Yom• Yesil Irmak• Seman• Rhone• Rhone• Seine• Verdon• Main• Tisza• Tisza•Po• Tiber• Rhine• Vistula•Tajo• Tormes• Varas•••••••• Severnay Dvina•Ural• Volga• Volga• Yana* Yenisei• Murrumbidgee• Nogoa Old.• PurariKalabaghKotriMouthNowsheraKotliChirahDhok PathanTha PlaWang Kra ChaoKam Pan PetchWang KraiKuang LuangAyvacikUraque KoitPierre BeniteChateauneufParisGreouxMarktbreitTivadorSzegedPontilagoscuroRomaLobithTezewEntrepenasSanta TeresaGuadalmellatoBarasonaCabillasCamarillasDona AldonzaLa PenaLas TranquesaLos HasonesTor. d. AquilaMouthTopolinskiDubovkaDubovkaMouthMouthFairbairn DamBasinArea(km2)12,0923,28314,58228,18067,18062,22523886056,7001,050,0007,120305,000958,000970,00090,0003,2363266,47212,79026,38642,30010,20413,21436,0005,28850,20071,30043,8781,81927,22512,540138,40854,29016,545160,000193,9003,8291,9881,1951,5116472,3906,0001,7281,478348432350,000191,4621,335,0141,350,085220,0002,580,00015,36022,344B. Heusch, J. Milliman and R. Meade, and United Nations Environment Programme.The basin area is the part of the watershed upstream of the station. Materials transport includes the movement of both dissolved and solid materials.0 = zero or less than one half the unit of measure; X = not available.31,000Rainfall(mm/yr)XXXXXX2,300X450X1,500XXXXXXX1,2501,7501,7501,7501,2505001,250XXXX7501,0007501,250X7507506838496301,0985773735977014551,102750XXX750XXX650XAnnualDischarge(cubickm)2.26.710.59.414.9X0.30.54.446.06.4X213.6238.021.43.80.21.46.06.17.61.42.6X3.6XXX1.13.76.627.348.9X69.430.10.71.10.20.90.10.71.10.90.10.20.1106.0XX252.529.0560.0XX77.0AnnualMaterialsTransport(metrictons/ha)7.551.641.467.812.226.4643.293.7610.80X0.2024.605.021.032.8841.8649.2534.483.910.880.361.511.6612.2841.500.230.610.281.630.200.440.492.803.700.170.0713.087.2312.583.433.903.273.251.193.307.8412.090.130.090.260.160.140.050.508.0025.81World Resources 1992-93333

22 FreshwaterSources and Technical NotesTable 22.1 FreshwaterResources and WithdrawalsSources: Water resources and withdrawaldata: J. Forkasiewicz and J. Margat, TableauMondial de Donnees Nationales d'Economie deI'Eau, Ressources et Utilisation (DepartementHydrogeologie, Orleans, France, 1980).Data for Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco,Tunisia, Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon, SyrianArab Republic, Turkey, Albania, France,Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, and Yugoslavia:J. Margat, Bureau de Recherches Geologiqueset Minieres, Orleans, France, April1988 (personal communication). AlexanderV. Belyaev, Institute of Geography, U.S.S.R.National Academy of Sciences, Moscow,September 1989 and January 1990 (personalcommunication); withdrawal and sectoraluse data for the United States: W.B. Solley,C.F. Merk, and R.R. Pierce, "Estimated Useof Water in the United States, in 1985," U.S.Geological Survey Circular, No. 1004 (U.S.Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, 1988);withdrawal data as footnoted: EuropeanCommunities—Commission, EnvironmentStatistics 1989 (Office des PublicationsOfficielles des Communautes Europeennes,Luxembourg, 1990), p. 130; desalinationdata as footnoted: O.K. Buros for the InternationalDesalination Association, The DesaltingABC's (Saline Water ConversionCorporation, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 1990),p. 5; population: United Nations PopulationDivision, World Population Prospects1990 (United Nations, New York, 1991).Data are compiled from published documents(including national, United Nations,and professional literature) and estimatesof resources and consumption from modelsusing other data, such as area under irrigatedagriculture, livestock populations,and precipitation, when necessary.Annual internal renewable water resourcesrefers to the average annual flow of riversand groundwater generated from endogenousprecipitation. Caution should be usedwhen comparing different countries becausethese estimates are based on differingsources and dates. These annual averagesalso disguise large seasonal, interannual,and long-term variations. When data for annualriver flows to and from other countriesare not shown, the internal renewablewater resources figure may include theseflows. Per capita annual internal renewablewater resources data were created using 1990population estimates.Annual withdrawals as a percentage of waterresources refer to total water withdrawals,not counting evaporative losses from storagebasins, as a percentage of internal renewablewater resources and river flowsfrom other countries. Water withdrawalsalso include water from desalination plantsin countries where that source is a significantpart of all water withdrawals.Per capita annual withdrawals were calculatedusing national population data for theyear of data shown for withdrawal.Sectoral withdrawals are classified as domestic(drinking water, homes, commercial establishments,public services [e.g., hospitals],and municipal use or provision); industry(including water withdrawn to coolthermoelectric plants); and agriculture (irrigationand livestock).Totals may not add because of rounding.Table 22.2 Large Dams andHydroelectric ResourcesSources: Large dam data: The InternationalCommission on Large Dams (ICOLD),World Register of Dams, 1984 Full Edition andWorld Register of Dams, 1988 Updating,(ICOLD, Paris, 1985 and 1989); data on hydropowerpotential and micro-hydro: InternationalWater Power and Dam ConstructionHandbook, 1991 (Reed Enterprise, Sutton,Surrey, United Kingdom, 1991); data on installedhydropower capacity and generation:United Nations Statistical Office (U.N.),Energy Statistics Yearbook 1989, (U.N., NewYork, 1991).ICOLD obtains data on individual largedams (over 15 meters in height, measuredfrom the lowest portion of the general foundationto the crest) from its 78 membercountries as well as general statistical dataon large dams in nonmember countries.Known inadequacies include the absence ofstatistics on large dams constructed by theMinistry of Agriculture and local authoritiesin the U.S.S.R. (these entities might add2,000-3,000 dams) and incomplete data ondam capacity and reservoir area. In 1950,there were only 5,270 large dams in theworld, only two of them in China. Today,China accounts for over half of all largedams, which numbered 36,562 in 1986.Gross theoretical hydropower potential is theelectrical energy that would be produced ifall runoff, on its way to the sea, were runthrough turbines with 100 percent efficiency.Exploitable hydropower potential is themost conservative measure of a country'shydroelectric resources and is the energythat is exploitable under existing technicallimitations and economic constraints. Technicalcapability is provided for a few countries(as footnoted) and refers to the estimateof the sum of the energy potentialfrom sites where it is physically possible toinstall dams, ignoring any economic, environmental,or social constraints.Installed hydropower capacity is the combinedgenerating capacity of all hydroelectricplants as of the end of 1989. It does notinclude pumped-storage schemes. Microhydrois the sum of the generating capacity,where known, of small hydroelectric plants(except as footnoted, each under 1-megawattcapacity). Small hydroelectric plantsare of special interest because of their relativelybenign (compared to large projects)social and environmental impacts.Total hydropower generation, as a percentageof [installed] capacity, refers to actual electricalproduction during 1989 from hydroelectricgenerating plants, again excludingpumped-storage schemes. Many countriesgenerate only a small fraction of their installedcapacity because of considerationsof need, water supply, and peak load.Table 22.3 Sediment Loads ofSelected RiversSources: Bernard Heusch, unpublisheddata (Saint Mury-La Tour, Meylan, France,1988); John D. Milliman and Robert H.Meade, "World-Wide Delivery of River Sedimentto the Oceans," The Journal of Geology,Vol. 91 (1983), pp. 1-21; J.M.L. Jansen andR.B. Painter, "Predicting Sediment Yieldfrom Climate and Topography," Journal ofHydrology, Vol. 21(4) (1974), pp. 371-380;J.M. Holeman, "The Sediment Yield ofMajor Rivers of the World," Water ResourcesResearch, Vol. 4(4) (1968), pp. 737-747;United Nations Environment Programme,Environmental Data Report (Basil BlackwellLtd., Oxford, 1989), pp. 121-126.Rivers carry sediment and dissolved solidstransported by rainfall and stream erosion.This material transport can be measured andstands as an indicator of the degree of landerosion upstream of the measurement station.Because sediment is deposited alongthe length of a stream, and in reservoirsand lakes, the measured material transportis not a direct measurement of erosion.Transport would occur in the absence ofhuman activity, as evidenced by the existenceof the major deltas of the Nile, Amazon,Yellow, Mississippi, Orinoco, Po,Tigris/Euphrates, and Ganges/Brahmaputra.Sediment flows in themselves havebeen beneficial—the fertility-enhancing effectsof the annual Nile flood in pre-Aswandays being the type example—and are essentialto the maintenance of shoreline andeven of marine life. Dam building has limitedthe flow of sediment in many of theworld's rivers. This, in turn, has limited thelifetimes and storage capacities of dams.High levels of materials transport can indicatepoor management of upstream land resources.Low levels of materials transport,on the other hand, can indicate sediment interceptionby dams and the subsequentneed for management of floodplains andcoastal land resources.The catchment is the named hydrologicalbasin for which data are available, and thestation is the place where sediment transportand flow measurements or estimatesare made. The basin area is the area drainedby the river and its tributaries upstream ofthe measurement station. The annual dischargeis the amount of water passing thegauging station and is the average of multiyearmonitoring. Annual materials transportis the average weight of solid and dissolvedmaterials passing by the measurement station,divided by the total area of the basinin hectares. Rivers for which sediment datawere available were included in this table ifannual discharge data were also availableor if the basin area was greater than10,000 square kilometers.334World Resources 1992-93

23. Oceans and CoastsThis chapter presents data on activities that put pressureson coastal and ocean resources, and it documentssome of their effects.Table 23.1 provides basic information on the extentof national coastal resources and the pressures oncoastal zones caused by human population growth,maritime trade, and offshore oil and gas exploration.Increasing numbers of people are settling along theworld's coastlines. In 1980, over 600 million peoplelived in coastal urban agglomerations. This number isforecast to swell to almost 1 billion by the turn of thecentury, multiplying adverse effects on productivecoastal ecosystems. Projections for the year 2000 concentratenearly half of the world's coastal populationalong the shores of Asia. Africa's coastal population isprojected to grow at the fastest regional rate, rising bya factor of over 2.5. National and city planners face atremendous challenge in balancing the needs of millionsfor housing, sanitation, and employment againstappropriate coastal zone management.Maritime trade connects the economies of the worldthrough the transfer of vital materials such as crude petroleumand other petroleum products, ores, amd cereals,as well as manufactured goods. Maritime traderequires extensive investment in infrastructure andputs coastal zone areas at high risk of accidents and environmentaldamage. Routine operational dischargesof wastes and ballast from ships account for a fargreater share of vessel source pollution and have ledto increased efforts to finance waste reception facilitiesin ports. Japan and the United States lead the world inthe total volume of goods loaded and unloaded, eachhandling about 10 percent of the volume.The extraction of offshore oil and gas contrilbutes tothe economic value of the coastal zone but createswaste and poses the risk of major oil spills. Roughlyone fourth of the world's oil production comes fromoffshore areas. World offshore crude oil output increasedby 11 percent in the past decade. The greatestregional increase occurred along Europe's coastalzone, expanding its global share from 17 to 25 percent.The world's offshore gas production rose 21 percent inthe past decade, with India, Mexico, and Brazil havingthe fastest growth rates. These three countries contributedone fourth of the global increase from 1980 to1990. However, their share still constitutes a small proportionof the world's offshore gas production.In its 1990 report, the Group of Experts on the ScientificAspects of Marine Pollution (GESAMP) of theUnited Nations Environment Programme named nutrientpollution as the gravest and most prevalent problemof ocean health. Data on the discharge of toxicpollutants into coastal waters and measurements ofmarine pollutants have been collected in a variety ofcoastal areas. However, few countries have preparedreliable estimates on the discharge of nutrients intocoastal waters and the eutrophication potential of estuaries.A first comprehensive attempt to estimate nutrientloadings and predict phosphorus and nitrogenconcentrations was undertaken for 85 estuaries in theUnited States. Table 23.2 indicates the kinds of physicaland hydrological data needed to assess the vulnerabilityof individual estuaries to nutrient inputs. Itshows that upstream areas and nonpoint sources contributethe majority of nutrients discharged.The continued health of the oceans and the longtermlivelihood of the millions employed in fishing dependon harvests that do not exceed the potential ofthe resource base. Many regional fisheries show signsof drastic overfishing. Table 23.3 indicates that in fishingareas such as the Northwest Pacific, the SoutheastPacific, and the Mediterranean and Black Sea, the averageannual catch exceeds the estimated potential longtermyield of marine fish. Recent enormous catches ofpollock, sardine, and anchoveta have pushed actualcatches in the Northwest and Southeast Pacific abovethe estimated sustainable maxima.Table 23.4 shows that the global marine catch increasedby 35 percent and inland catch by 85 percentover the past decade. The growth rate of the world marinecatch is almost entirely due to increases in thecatches of four species that, combined, make up nearlyone quarter of the marine harvest: Alaskan pollock,Peruvian anchovy (anchoveta), Japanese sardine (Japanesepilchard), and Chilean sardine (South Americanpilchard). The rate of increase of these catches, 5-25percent annually, cannot be maintained indefinitely.Indeed preliminary figures for 1990 show a decline intheir catches. (See Chapter 12, "Oceans and Coasts.")The amount of fish produced by inland waters, includingaquaculture, has expanded to 14 percent of thetotal world catch in 1987-89. World per capita foodsupply from fish and fishery products increased from11.4 kilograms per year in 1977-79 to 13.1 kilograms in1986-88. Aquaculture is partly responsible for thisboost in the supply of fish for human consumption.Wt>rld Resources 1992-93335

23 Oceans and CoastsTable 23.1 Coastal Areas and ResourcesWORLDMaritime Area(thousandLength square kilometers)of Shelf to ExclusiveCoastline 200-m Economic(kilometers) Depth Zone594,008 21,426.5 108,714.3Populationin CoastalUrbanAgglomerationsAverage AnnualVolume of GoodsLoaded and Unloaded1986-88 (thousand metric tons)(thousands)PetroleumDry1980 2000 Crude Products Cargo617,081 996,855 2,213,718 838,692 4,075,198Offshore Oil and Gas ResourcesProven ReservesAnnual ProductionOil GasOilGas (million (billion(thousand(million metric cubicmetric tons) cubic meters) tons) meters)1980 1990 1980 1990 1990 1990681,637 755,267 287,756 347,949 29,699 19,0870XXAFRICA37,908 1,325.7 11,981.1 43,213 111,643 341,889 43,224 273,642 66,936 97,880 5,849 2,931 4,229 3,131AlgeriaAngola1,1831,60013.766.9137.2605.73,4931,1327,6133,60328,10013,435a 23,73936815,5072,36504,829019,9000004560249042Benin121 X 27.1 585 2,527X 441 b 978 0 204 0 0 117 XCameroon402 10.6 15.4 854 2,802 10,268 a 1,211 3,388 0 6,549 0 32 714 54Cape Verde965 X 789.4 125 360X 101 b 369 0 0 0 0 0 0Comoros340 X 249.0 89 240X X 105 0 0 0 0 0 0Congo169 8.9 24.7 217 571 6,048 a 254 3,841 1,345 7,355 0 52 514 59Cote d'lvoire515 10.3 104.6 1,495 4,125 1,790 1,462 6,591 289 388 0 0 3Djibouti314 X 6.2 211 455X 761 653 0 0 0 0 060Egypt2,450 37.4 173.5 4,246 8,020 131,332 4,123 24,583 19,437 26,927 598 1,354 299 130Equatorial Guinea296 X 283.2 181 392X X 144 0 0 0 0 0 0Ethiopia1,094 47.7 75.8 760 1,909 715 b 503 2,104 0 0 0 0 0 0Gabon885 46.0 213.6 155 498 8,170 a 218 803 8,859 4,880 0 0 435 XGambia, The80 X 19.5 109 293X 21 b 277 0 0 0 0 0 0Ghana539 20.9 218.1 1,336 3,139 1,067 b 235 2,400 100 0 83 0 4 XGuinea346 38.4 71.0 696 2,025X 124 10,528 0 0 0 0 0 0Guinea-Bissau274 X 150.5 174 353X 27 b 203 0 0 0 0 0 0Kenya536 14.4 118.0 489 2,020 1,922 b 94 4,117 0 0 0 0 0 0Liberia579 19.6 229.7 465 1,195 689 b 90 b 17,308 0 0 0 0 0 0Libya1,770 83.7 338.1 1,496 4,322 43,414 a 4,788 6,839 0 4,133 0 0 27 38Madagascar4,828 180.4 1,292.0 570 2,032X 347 909 0 0 0 0 0 0Mauritania754 44.2 154.3 238 1,177X 96 b 10,641 0 0 0 0 0 0Mauritius177 91.6 1,183.0 410 565X 309 b 1,597 0 0 0 0 0 0Morocco1,835 62.1 278.1 5,543 11,472 4,671 144 36,137 0 0 0 0 0 0Mozambique2,470 104.3 562.0 1,109 5,240 449 b 115 3,904 0 0 0 0 0 0Namibia1,489 X X 76 290X XX 0 0 0 0 0 0Nigeria853 46.3 210.9 4,383 14,135 62,701 a 911 9,567 28,837 25,923 5,168 1,038 1,822 2,719Reunion201 X X 279 479X 217 b 1,168 0 0 0 0 0 0Senegal531 31.6 205.7 1,378 3,077 218 b 347 b 4,728 0 0 0 0 7 XSeychelles491 X 1,349.3 X XX 114 b 139 0 0 0 0 0 0Sierra Leone402 26.4 155.7 453 1,175 225 b 14 b 1,541 0 0 0 0 0 0Somalia3,025 60.7 782.8 1,186 3,308 478 b 45 951 0 0 0 0 0 0South Africa2,881 143.4 1,553.4 4,272 8,294 18,595 b 252Sudan853 22.3 91.6 356 1,193 1,181 b 81b 81,0092,2970000000020260Tanzania1,424 41.2 223.2 1,750 6,945 615 b 673 2,172 0 0 0 0 X 57Togo56 1.0 2.1 324 983X 127 b 1,104 0 0 0 0 0Tunisia1,143 50.8 85.7 2,476 4,540 3,854 a 836 11,307 2,170 1,107 0 0 35Zaire37 1.0 1.0 102 276 1,918 a 35 b 1,366 1,071 513 0 0 XCanada90,908 2,903.4 2,939.4 3,066 3,852 13,267 9,101 193,556 0 0 0 0Cayman Islands160 X X X X 1,297 35 b 106 0 0 0 0Costa Rica1,290 15.8 258.9 1,050 2,258 436 b 344 b 2,648 0 0 0 0Cuba3,735 XX 362.8 6,628 8,942 6,033 b 4,263 15,020 0 0 0 0Dominica14820.0 X X X 5 b 85 0 0 0 027600002980000NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA 183,950 5,632.2 18,759.1 88,896 121,410 308,744 133,276 728,887 84,901 125,307 156,585 131,522 5,681 2,992Antigua and Barbuda153 X X X XX 60 b 79 0 0 0 0 0 0Bahamas3,542 85.7 759.2 X X 12,818 4,183 3,191 0 0 0 0 0 0Barbados97 0.3 167.3 100 146 111 b 37 b 561 0 0 0 0 0 0Belize386 XX XX XX XXXX 86 b 268 0 0 0 0 0 0Bermuda103363 237 0 0 0 0 0 0Dominican Rep1,288 18.2 268.8 2,787 5,797 1,560 b 792 b 4,216 0 0 0 0 0 0El Salvador307 17.8 91.9 1,680 3,049 634 b 16 b 1,123 0 0 0 0 0 0Greenland44,087 X X X X X 184 386 0 0 0 0 0 0Grenada121 X 27.0 X XX 21 b 67 0 0 0 0 0 0Guadeloupe306 X X 142 196X 363 b 1,117 0 0 0 0 0 0Jamaica1,022 40.1 297.6 1,016 1,689 1,125 b 1,310 7,274 0 0 0 0 0 0Martinique290 2.4 X 217 279 213 b 264 830 0 0 0 0 0 0Guatemala400 12.3 99.1 780 932 594 b 197 b 4,376 0 0 0 0 0 0Haiti1,771 10.6 160.5 1,216 2,845X 8 b 843 0 0 0 0 0 0Honduras820 53.5 200.9 583 1,923 349 b 272 1,851 0 0 0 0 0 0Mexico9,330 442.1 2,851.2 6,529 9,501 69,767 7,191 17,462 24,911 78,833 258 2,948 4,488 1,104Nicaragua910 72.7 159.8 1,166 2,837 466 179 b 1,255 0 00 0 0 0 0Panama2,490 57.3 306.5 989 1,749 1,155 467 1,768 00 0 0 0Trinidad and Tobago362 29.2 76.8 623 1,110 4,424 1,656 5,563 8,292 4,890 4,341 3,312United States19,924 1,870.7 9,711.4 60,324 74,305 194,496 101,878 465,003 51,697 41,583 151,985 125,262 O43_ "1,3593SOUTH AMERICA 30,663 1,984.9 10,124.8 59,553 104,628 92,383 38,448 286,341 59,682 85,205 1,703 12,296 1,973 1,069ArgentinaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorFrench GuianaGuyanaPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela4,9897,4916,4352,4142,2373784592,4143866602,800796.4768.627.467.947.0X50.182.7X56.688.11,164.53,168.42,288.2603.21,159.0X130.31,026.9101.2119.3363.812,27325,6163,2122,9261,529X2136,9751401,5115,15816,64349,1604,8563,9263,877X42514,3392161,8629,324225 a25,223 bb2,3589,100 c9,344 aXX1,209X96846,719a3,6623,6382186,5361,2711234701,3296617ba 20,533bbbb32,920174,68115,53812,3873,3872341,91412,2506,2831,07225,6750 1,743 0 913,635 32,551 1,034 6,2270 1,001 0 5920 00 669 00 0 0001,4870054,560004,4420045,467000000000005,3857 4870 13657 6510 405 2000310099300300801336World Resources 1992-93

Oceans and Coasts 23Table 23.1ASMBahrainBangladeshBruneiCambodiaChinaCyprusHong KongIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepMaldivesMyanmarOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepLengthofCoastline(kilometers)163,60916158016144314,50064873312,70054,7163,1802,413499225404,6756443,0602,0921,04622,5405632,5101931,340193Maritime Area(thousandsquare kilometers)Shelf toExclusive200-m EconomicDepth6,768-65.154.9XX869.86.5X452.12,776.9107.0244.612.04.5X373.5X229.561.158.3178.424.077.90.3Zone20,258.55.176.8X55.61,355.899.4X2,014.95,408.6155.7X12.022.6X475.6959.1509.5561.7318.51,786.0Populationin CoastalUrbanAgglomerationsAverage AnnualVolume of GoodsLoaded and Unloaded1986-88 (thousand metric tons)(thousands)PetroleumDry1980 2000 Crude Products281,828 487,093 853321 274,183279 582X 12,1781,809 5,053 1,086 b 830X X 8,599 a 4,86150 287X X38,936 66,510 40,294 7,6542914,61437,31729,16687216,9111,1902,016X3,997X3,923625,21517,7361971,9542,4142,4332664576,08878,25558,3031,480X7,69530212,35037,181532X17,15353,32082,45320,971XX27,7384,3598,200474 b5,3615,64523,8063,1205 b48154 b2,709929Cargo1,165,1544,0107,4091,17911097,5184,16862,88941,13631,62210,688126,5108,9271,0303,08344,926871,7602,97513,39421,3002,47041,79546,7828,6945,731Oil(thousand007,07926,5467,470000013,9600000199Offshore Oil and Gas ResourcesAnnual Production0032,91822,66916,997000029,9150000386Gas(million0 00 028 6,0024,548 7,4740 355Proven ReservesOii(millionmetric62,650metric tons) cubic meters) tons)1990 1980 1990328,221 227,758 30,07214,6980 0 0 0 610 0 0 0 09,574 4,709 10,180 8,063 1800 0 00 0 0100 1,147403 153Iraq 58 0.7 0.7 0 0 XX X 0 0 0 0 0 0Israel 273 4.5 23.3 2,826 4,110 5,669 b 975 17,622 0 0 0 0 0 0Japan 13,685 480.5 3,861.1 78,349 88,798 179,670 b 72,826 454,578 76 294 493 155 1 XJordan 26 X 0.7 70 146 X X 18,272 0 0 0 0 0 0Korea, Dem People's Rep 2,495 X 129.6 5 973 14,233 3 066 b 1,027 b 1,731 0 0 0 0 0 0Korea, RepKuwaitLebanonMacaoMalaysiaIrelandItalyMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R418643543,3791,1263,4271,48890113,6764,9881,4484,9961404515.8324911,6932254,9643,21812,4293,93546,6705.52.712.368.698.1147.840.8X24.7133.8125.9144.113.084.7102.928.539.124.4170.5155.3492.236.71,249.529,2922,6603,135X9,15830,64439,64919X187,780 76,0062,188 1,28224.0455 13,422 a 72912,328 9,1631,147 258 396186.24,201 110,873 a 35,330167,378 73,7095,995 8,538 1,4500.32,950 38,100 39,080000 0000 000 00026.8 517.43,496 1,368 b 4600X 10.3853 15,115 3,1970Thailand 3,219 257.6 85.8 5,698 13,541 6,596 b 2,138 32,852 0 948 0 6,326 28 405Turkey 7,200 50.4 236.6 9,928 17,028 87,734 3,497 32,614 0 0 0 0 X 7United Arab Emirates 1,448 59.3 59.3 824 1,517 53,158 a 4,601 12,356 83,513 34,904 14,823 7,442 3,884 341VietNam 3,444 327.9 722.1 5,585 14,317 X 321 b 1,431 0 0 0 0 13 8Yemen (Arab Rep) 523 24.7 33.9 278 1,088 4,034 1,678 3,505 0 0 0 0 0 0(People's Dem Rep) 1,383 X 550.3 649 1,572 X X X 0 0 0 0 0 0EUROPE69,643 1,951.5 14,680.9 111,806 129,989 532,592 287,004 1,240,461 115,683110,123Bulgaria32.9 857 1,182 12,069 b 888 16,311 0 0 0 0 0 0Denmark1,464.2 3,980 4,201 6,094 5,994 32,430 330 6,340 0 2,969 45 91Finland98.1 1,539 1,998 9,655 b 6,311 37,083 0 0 0 0 0 0France3,493.1 d 9,380 10,692 67,056 36,676 105,128 0 0 0 0 0 0Germany (Fed Rep)40.8 2,845 3,052 19,300 b 13,634 104,559 0000 553 0 00 14050 50(Dem Rep)9.6 1,099 1,249X 3,634 22,1670 0Greece505.1 5,252 6,559 14,411 4,245 27,389669 0 32 12Iceland866.9 186 231X 553 b 2,3060 0 0 0Albania12.3 622 1,140X 74 1,633 0 0 0 0 0 0Belgium2.7 1,968 2,097 9,774 b 20,044 103,856 0 0 0 0 0 0380.3552.166.284.72,024.828.51,774.231.91,219.4155.31,785.352.54,490.328,419.64,496.31,830.02.1 1,135.3XX 5,030.03,550.0X242.8XXXXXXbah1,766 2,469 3,34921,232 23,721 87,442303 327X7,7642,3249,0323,03381,65927,1881,842 2,853 758 b2,352 3,499 7,056 bbbb573 866 16,08513,903 17,925 43,8654,018 4,306 13,57426,765 27,790 105,0231,236 1,767 8,069 b2,279 2,832 1,283 bX XXXX322 960X XX X XXX XX XX18,372 23,975 72,34613,413 18,117 11,94210,568X13,902X244XXX423XXX10,484XXXXX8,79018,30520628012,9681,79943,95251949,0027,1083,6632,4918,76117,03815,12842,6252,86852,092hh16,48391,8251,488208,91947,43946,16016,21621,71378,37176,410159,86722,707116,614000000 0 1,292312 4,143 2270 0 0031,3152,35583,70412,09425,0770 0 01570000001,5600000000 0 00 155 01,556 777 00 0 082,170089,085037,31609,960 7,157 12,66316,253 24,180 4,87916,0960000022,620000004,01100000OCEANIA61,565 2,514.110,464 264,099Australia25,760 2,269.2 7,259Cook Islands120 X8 b243,06034Fiji1,129483 639French Polynesia2,525259 b 364Kiribati1,1435 b 32New Caledonia2,2541,740.0358 b 1,991New Zealand15,1344,833.2Niue64390.01,166X14,022X856 b 3,17234 b 574Papua New GuineaSolomon Islands5,1525,3132,366.61,340.0Tonga419700.0Tuvalu24328.219Xb 85XVanuatu2,528680.017 b 126Sources: United Nations Statistical Office, United Nations Office for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, Offshore Magazine, and other sources.Notes: a. Goods loaded, b. Goods unloaded, c. Two years of data. d. Includes overseas territory except French Polynesia and New Caledonia.World and regional totals include countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available; billion = thousand million.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.000019,2882,4074,062 017,86232,0440001,261049,486013,02415,40212,714000008690000000043533243500003670X0011X70211,540Gas(billioncubicmeters)19907,383X01980538004701,58945300001,4750X45062324603333290 00420 0080546 2345 1517 2,379414 852367 4250 00000000 02,688 10 113000 0 037 3140 00 0 000 00 00World Resources 1992-93337

23 Oceans and CoastsTable 23.2 Nutrient Discharges and Predicted ConcentrationsTotalPhysical Characteristics (thousand hectares)EstuarineTotalDrainageFluvialDrainageDrainageAreaUpstreamArea Area Total CoastalPredictedConcentration(mg/l)NitrogenEstimated Loadingsmetric tons per year)CoastalNonpointUpstreamPointPredictedConcentration(mg/1)PhosphorusEstimated Loadings(metric tons per year)CoastalNonpointUpstreamTotal PointTOTAL (85 ESTUARIES)572,332509,90662,42543,920528,4111,712,644 267,976 266,6031,178,065355,514124,17221,116 210,226ATLANTIC OCEANPassamaquoddy BayEnglishman BayNarraguagus BayBlue Hill BayPenobscot BayMuscongus BaySheepscot BayCasco BaySaco BayGreat BayMerrimack RiverMassachusetts BayCape Cod BayBuzzards BayNarragansett BayGardiners BayLong Island SoundGreat South BayHudson River & Raritan BayBarnegat BayDelaware BayChincoteague BayChesapeake BayAlbemarle & Pamlico SoundsBogue SoundNew RiverCape Fear RiverWinyah BayCharleston HarborNorth & South Santee RiversSt. Helena SoundBroad RiverSavannah RiverOssabaw SoundSt. Catherines & Sapelo SoundsAltamaha RiverSt. Andrew & St. Simon SoundsSt. Johns RiverIndian RiverBiscayne Bay77,5088292291082142,437902,6083004592461,2903112001494611044,4652194,2753503,4847817,9447,6601761222,3544,6854,0883,9631,2382592,6941,2252503,6781,0452,42432347946,655NANANANA1,619NA1,015NANANA694NANANA117NA2,593NA2,082NA2,253NA12,2574,657NANA1,2302,2223,7773,777840NA2,456839NA3,287200741NANA30,853829229108214818901,5933004592465963112001493441041,8732192,1933501,230785,6863,0031761221,1242,4633111863982592373862503918441,68432347920,459 57,049356 472229 0108 0207 6286 2,15190 0255 2,353252 48142 316234 12179 1,111305 6200 0149 0344 117104 0918 3,548219 01,732 2,542350 0972 2,51278 04,549 13,3942,282 5,378176 0122 0382 1,972714 3,971311 3,777171 3,792303 935150 10995 2,599100 1,125232 1727 3,650650 3941,684 741323 0479 010.1-1>1>1>1>10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-1809,1995602,2674,4873,3904,56710,0551,0374,9914,4431,73438,66130,915420,743161,5319,13512,54745,85012,36212,1327233,5436,21717,311483,6163,0479,72016,69024,72783,63410,56354010,98411,9152,77197,4632226993,037871,270472461051,4192032,6714,50021,5876,4086,1622,79436,7294,89724771563,45751249,0322,8218,55915,8561,36310,094412021510066,6923371,5681,4507602,5339577912,7422,6431,4752,9445,4512764,6167281,0284,6459208,8727163,3242,03315,884138,7532261,16183423,23245,3169,8502002,3742,6932,671645,0440002,5437649,05102,1443815533,04720,964398,880150,5072,2448,7254,4766,5453,014063727915295,83100013228,2236711388,6099,21700.01-0.10.01-0.1>0.10.01-0.10.01-0.10.01-0.10.1>0.1>0.10.01-0.1>0.1>0.1>0.10.01-0.1>0.1>0.1>0.1>0.1>0.1>0.1>0.1>0.10.01-0.1>0.10.01-0.10.01-0.10.01-0.1200,977649071,3801,2116661,201934625952887,1754,315109,15639,2891,3121,73211,4197,6485,5771728061,9503,56063,3922,3905,99111,6151,07711,8804951614968688624,653287711,2487156738183451677621,0097,1665628027959,30938812701874418533,5772,3715,83511,5716216,73125112035411,497 164,827351361323062406855221215116239631478752902711,1032192,1881727174252,7952,85020156444511,078108152427330008982691,12602223556,1742,674101,94337,8522206661,0077,0413,26207178158026,96600054,071362344738380338World Resources 1992-93

Oceans and Coasts 23in U.S. Estuaries Table 23.2Umpqua RiverSiuslaw RiverAlsea RiverYaquina BaySiletz BayNetarts BayTillamook BayNehalem RiverColumbia RiverWillapa BayGrays HarborPuget SoundSource:Notes:Nitrogen1,2021991246696414822366,7332857033,181813NA0NANANANANA65,276NA3391,106389199124669641482231.4572853642,07538919980666941382129332853642,0138130450270101165,80003391,1680.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-18,0473,5013,5158931,3751333,9152,637255,1503,4060.1-1 7,32019,1341162149828359173,063623846,1377,9313,4801,7067959931313,8562,6208,3503,3444,31512,674001,8050354000243,73702,622322PhosphorusEstimated Loadings(metric tons per year)CoastalPhysical Characteristics (thousand hectares)EstuarinePredictedEstimated Loadings(metric tons per year)Total Fluvial DrainageConcentrationCoastalDrainage Drainage AreaUp-Non- Up-Area Area Total Coastal stream (mg/1) Total Point pointPredictedConcentrationNon-Up-(mg/l) Total Point point stream0.01-0.1

23 Oceans and CoastsTable 23.4 Marine and Freshwater Catches, Aquaculture, andWORLDAverage AnnualMarine Catch(000 Percentmetric Changetons) Since1987-89 1977-7984,220.3 35Average AnnualFreshwater Catch(000 Percentmetric Changetons) Since1987-89 1977-7913,303.2 855,829.2Average Annual Aquaculture Production1987-89 (000 metric tons)MarineFish271.5Molluscs2,952.7TotalFish andShellfish10,575.8Other {a}3,160.3FreshwaterFishDiadromousFish908.5Crustaceans613.9Average AnnualFood Supply from Fishand Fishery Products1986-88(000 Per Capitametric (kilotons)grams)65,488.9 13.1AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH S CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuela3,439.099.990.69.3XXX60.96.5XX5.421.367.90.549.53.60.920.711.6311.831.03.57.5X13.38.761.0XX90.517.5520.534.228.0X154.9X244.537.217.51,199.01.2X46.015.199.0X2.0XX8,980.25.11.41,521.119.9195.916.712.82.37.818.87.61,225.94.6155.53.25,597.613,841.1503.2X655.35,491.536.8723.335.4X5,986.74.1121.7275.621158(20)126XXX20XX3425(10)9669(10)X31(3)40169973X77139368XX2701468742(93)X(43)X19(23)7910276X73976X34XX5430(5)189921962(40)93193(22)65(49)(14)(26)73946X918085314X88559801,820.20.48.031.21.97.911.820.00.013.0110.00.017.530.10.0201.80.43.21.92.756.43.00.0130.40.04.00.036.788.161.16.00.11.50.30.23.2105.61.516.316.00.51.322.80.1328.10.60.0227.0161.368.018.3545.60.00.050.10.516.81.72.10.50.31.72.7176.80.10.60.0291.5354.810.14.9215.81.450.61.70.810.331.50.10.527.127 73.7X 0.00 X53 0.063 X19 0.0(23) 0.00 0.2X 0.10 XX(1)X X119 0.2289 1.1X X138 55.1X X26 0.0 c60 0.00.046 X200 0.0X X206 0.3180 0.00.0X(11)35(29)0681159iW (62)(58)479219XX(11)127842X94835145310X(93)454838116033(15)0XXX(43)XX31044(27)11839X3X174233130(15)15210X0.20.10.0X0.00.00.0X0.113.80.00.00.0X0.20.00.00.00.0X0.00.71.10.0209.6XXX0.115.80.00.00.1X0.22.17.30.00.5X183.314.80.30.212.0X1.30.10.00.00.5XX0.31.6XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX0.8XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX0.10.0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX X XX XXXX XXXXX0.4XX X X0.2 0.0 X0.0 XX XX XX X XX0.0XXXX0.0XXXXXXXX0.8XXXXXXXX0.196.1XX10.00.0X0.0 cXXXXX0.7XXX85.58.8X0.1X6.70.60.3XX0.8XX0.3XXXXX0.0XXXX0.3XXXX0.0XXXX0.4XXX0.00.6XXXX0.1 cX0.5XXXXXXXXX0.0Xo.o dXX0.0XXXXXXXXX0.0XX0.1XXXXXX0.0XXXXXXXXXXXX43.8X0.3X0.20.40.30.20.7X1.90.00.60.13.3X35.581.9XX1.7X2.973.90.0X3.3XX0.02.10.0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX0.00.1XXXXX0.0XX1.6XXXX0.3XXXX184.2XX7.20.01.2XXXXX0.051.6XXX123.93.50.0X0.13.2X0.0XX0.2XXX78.20.0X0.0X0.00.00.20.1XXX0.21.10.055.1X0.00.00.00.40.0X0.60.00.0X0.20.10.0X0.10.20.0X0.114.20.00.00.0X2.70.00.00.00.00.70.00.71.10.2534.4X0.317.10.417.50.30.70.90.02.22.160.20.13.8X428.1109.00.30.413.89.84.874.20.10.04.8XX0.60.1XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX0.0XXXXXXXXX0.1XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX22.8XXX22.8XXXXXXXX4,747.5101.3218.047.03.617.6 b11.9 b154.04.214.592.25.675.0177.7 b1.3361.77.14.8 b32.912.6355.644.53.3122.92.934.216.290.3 b82.961.1 b17.919.2 b176.744.015.2 b3.0658.41.6143.856.51.8345.1 b23.70.1348.243.283.6212.9296.067.118.36,887.08.11.2632.2 b14.7219.0 b39.713.93.9 b28.117.6 b44.1852.1 b3.1 b27.9 b13.25,245.7 b2,382.5205.76.3936.3281.8 b94.5 b107.4 b34.111.0488.5 b2.913.2 b241.48.14.423.611.13.12.1 b2.3 b14.412.35.217.511.436.316.0 b3.57.421.50.1 b31.216.025.98.43.65.71.814.64.08.0 b10.57.0 b9.618.2 b7.63.19.1 b0.46.70.321.314.72.310.2 b1.00.114.213.411.012.69.28.92.116.732.07.224.4 b5.321.1 b5.92.80.4 b4.63.7 b18.610.0 b0.8 b12.0 b10.921.3 b8.56.60.96.622.1 b3.0 b10.7 b43.02.823.6 b7.24.3 b13.2340World Resources 1992-93

Oceans and Coasts 23Fish Consumption Table 23.4Average AnnualMarine Catch(000 PercentmetricChangetons) Since1987-89 1977-79Average AnnualFreshwater Catch(000 PercentmetricChangetons) Since1987-89 1977-79FishFishAverage Annual Aquaculture Production1987-89 (000 metric tons)MarineFishMolluscsTotalFish andShellfishOther (a)Average AnnualFood Supply from Fishand Fishery Products1986-88(000 Per CapitaASIA 34,752.1 35 9,091.9 115 4,944.8 405.0 259.4 428.6 2,019.1 8,057.0 3,125.1 33,529.1 11.4AfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.X7.9241.2X6.55,814.82.51,910.41,971.0189.25.016.311,455.50.01,600.12,768.68.7X1.7598.6X552.5X136.4341.81,478.13.448.914.7158.80.92,629.0538.888.6620.821.950.912,116.47.6X40.097.5X1,843.9103.8827.1189.0161.3120.1X1,631.8249.9504.5X0.9416.91,896.0597.2354.1181.91,368.1236.2X892.849.310,266.1X88109X(34)811052960214(73)5616(94)343383X3(10)X40X8736254893(5)15(28)35132385122(6)(2)(25)X(16)(2)X6310(51)(18)26X715818X(28)31(34)23272527X(9)39241.50.0585.41.063.54,493.50.11,307.2691.846.313.915.8207.90.1100.043.30.020.00.114.70.3145.211.80.097.7554.50.00.50.138.14.5179.148.30.0250.30.00.0466.55.64.90.712.421.124.78.841.426.022.010.036.90.60.658.30.00.05.30.433.01.970.329.74.94.417.125.61,001.20X11051315705564559(21)5( x 7)6130X00431(29)0261X16981XX(77)1428835132X39XX505743X302255(69)X69518XX XXXX139.4 16.5 155.9XXX X1.6 1.63,765.6X 31.70.0 0.1 0.0432.5X X214.7 115.9 4.69.7 0.9 X4.8X X13.8 0.4 0.724.9 87.9 215.30.1 XX XX X7.1X2.5X6.1X6.05.8X9.084.7X0.60.24.81.686.52.10.0115.02.3XX0.12.1X0.0XX0.0dc1.90.0XX0.3XXXXX179.8X16.367.5XX0.03.1X11.00.2XXX1.5XXX0.00.0192.8 X 44.0XXXX X X0.0 0.00.2 0.4X 0.60.1 X X1.3 1.0 58.11.1 0.1 XXXX 0.0X 29.5XXXXXXXX158.3 308.7 6.2 3.20.4 0.2 0.0 X1.3 3.1 XX X0.2 0.4X10.5 1.5 X X20.1 1.0 X XX 29.2 X XX 15.9 X X7.8 32.9 0.2 0.26.0 16.5 0.0 X14.4 7.5 X X0.4 2.2 0.5 X10 18.6 0.3 X X12 XX 1.2 X XX5.1 X X131XX2.8XX36.8XX4.2XXXXX114 0.4 0.4 X X12 X 88.3 0.0 X46 21.1 3.0 X XX 1.9X 0.4 0.0 d40 38.7X X 0.039 0.4 14.4 0.6 2.9(51) X 6.7 XX 0.012 0.1 d 0.5X787 0.1 35.4 X 0.04 13.2 0.3 0.3 X26 343.6 8.2 0.1 X884.8X2.6XXXX434.9X162.7409.9XXX39.6XXXXX26.4XX1.1XX56.2XXX4,861.90.1451.5402.710.64.814.9766.10.1173.7421.40.02.50.149.6X6.05.80.09.0347.9X0.61.95.41.7203.13.30.0144.5XXXX655.4 1,131.82.3 2.8X 4.3X 0.70.1 12.1X 21.1X 29.2X 15.9187.1 228.322.6 45.1X 21.81.0 4.1X 18.9X1.213.8 18.985.3 129.1XXXX95.8 96.60.1 88.4X 24.1X 2.37.9 46.6233.2 251.51.2 7.9X 0.63.8 39.41.3 15.00.2 352.123.1XX1,445.3XX81.7XXX575.1X315.2metric(kilotons)1.59.4800.61.070.09,540.28.62,627.02,432.2231.319.794.78,839.010.1873.2457.5 2,066.2XX 20.020.0X 1.7X 497.2X 2.5X 599.4X 10.9X 33.6X 202.4248.6XXXXX0.0XX1.7XXbbbb1,961.53.1101.278.4 b250.1 b5.91,106.6378.0 b36.7815.524.837.49,352.4 bOCEANIA825.5 151 22.9 897 0.1 3.7 0.0 0.6 33.4 37.9 0.6 597.4Australia194.5 55 3.3 154 0.0 2.6 X 0.3 10.2 13.1 0.1 301.4Fiji29.1 155 4.4 411X0.0X 0.0 0.1 31.1New Zealand482.2 356 0.5X24.2 X 120.6hbhPapua New GuineaSolomon Islands10.552.2(71)8314.60.0X0.00.00.0XX89.616.8 bSource: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.Notes: a. Includes production of aquatic plants and seaweeds, which are excluded from marine catch; their harvest is to be subtracted as appropriate, b. Data are for 1987-89.c. Two years of data. d. One year of data.Total of aquaculture production is included in the country totals for marine and freshwater catches.World and regional totals include countries not listed and unallocated quantities.0 = zero or less than half of the unit of measure; X = not available; negative numbers are shown in parentheses.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.0.0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX0.0 cXXXXXXXXX3.810.161.0199.257.6106.6107.4153.61,681.9680.3220.6182.352.623.058.31,164.6X5.3118.2185.0522.0592.9203.01,446.5230.485.91,120.679.48,236.8bbbbbhbbbbhbbbbbbhbbbbbhbbbbFreshwaterDiadromousCrustaceansgrams)0.120.47.3 b0.79.18.8 b12.73.314.04.4 b1.121.372.13.442.449.610.85.30.730.11.315.30.624.91.8bb33.89.58.029.6 b14.9 b0.520.87.0 b25.213.03.016.418.8 b3.28.019.46.46.820.931.030.111.013.318.25.092.416.520.3X15.38.044.013.857.78.837.127.313.019.63.428.923.918.242.436.524.855.9hbbbbhbbbbhbbbbhbbbbbbbhbbbbbbhbWorld Resources 1982-93341

23 Oceans and CoastsSources and Technical NotesTable 23.1 Coastal Areas andResourcesSources: Length of marine coastline:United Nations Office of Ocean Affairs andthe Law of the Sea, unpublished data(United Nations, New York, June 1989);U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, The WorldFactbook 1988 (U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C., 1988). Shelf area to200-meter depth: John P. Albers, M DevereuxCarter, Allen L. Clark, et al. SummaryPetroleum and Selected Mineral Statistics for120 Countries, Including Offshore Areas, GeologicalSurvey Professional Paper 817, (U.S.Government Printing Office, Washington,D.C., 1973). Exclusive economic zone:United Nations Office of Ocean Affairs andthe Law of the Sea, unpublished data(United Nations, New York, June 1989);French Polynesia and New Caledonia: AnthonyBergin, "Fisheries Surveillance in theSouth Pacific," Ocean & Shoreline Management,Vol. 11 (1988), p. 468.Population in coastal urban agglomerations:United Nations Centre for HumanSettlements (Habitat), unpublished data(United Nations, Nairobi, Februrary 1990).Average volume of goods loaded and unloaded:United Nations Statistical Office,Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, Vol. XLIV, No.12 (December 1990).Offshore oil and gas resources: OffshoreMagazine (PennWell Publishing Company,Tulsa, Oklahoma, July 20,1984 and June1991).The United Nations Office for Ocean Affairsand the Law of the Sea compiles informationconcerning coastal claims from thefollowing sources: the United Nations LegislativeSeries, official gazettes, communicationsto the Secretary General, legal journals,and other publications. Nationalclaims to maritime zones fall into five categories:territorial sea, contiguous zone, exclusiveeconomic zone (EEZ), exclusivefishing zone, and continental shelf. The extentof the continental shelf to 200-meterdepth and the exclusive economic zone forthose countries with marine coastline arepresented in the table. Only the potentialand not the actual established area of theEEZ are shown. At present, only about halfof the world's countries have established afull EEZ.Under currently recognized internationalprinciples, an EEZ may be established by anation out to 200 nautical miles to claim allthe resources within the zone, includingfish and all other living resources; minerals;and energy from wind, waves, and tides.Nations may also claim rights to regulatescientific exploration, protect the marine environment,and establish marine terminalsand artificial islands. The EEZ data showndo not reflect the decisions of some countries,such as those in the European Community,to collectively manage fishingzones on EEZs in some areas. When countries'EEZs overlap—such as those of theUnited States and Cuba, which both have342World Resources 1992-93200-mile EEZs, yet are only 90 miles apart—they must agree on a maritime boundarybetween them, often a halfway point.The shelf area to the 200-meter isobathrepresents one indicator of potential offshoreoil and gas resources because of sedimentationfrom continental areas. Otherindicators are geologic and geographic. Accessibilityand water depth place economicconstraints on exploration and productionoperations in water deeper than 200 meters.Significant deep-water operations currentlytake place in the North Sea and off the Braziliancoast.Population in coastal urban agglomerationswas calculated using maps in scales from1:500,000 to 1:2,000,000. Coastal area is definedas a zone no more than 60 kilometersinland. Projected population for the year2000 is based on the medium variant of the1988 United Nations Population Divisionassessment. Definitions of urban agglomerationvary greatly among countries. (SeeTechnical Note for Table 17.2.) The most recentcountry-level estimates are for yearsfrom 1970 to 1986. Hence, a direct comparisonof urban agglomerations among countriesshould be done with caution.The United Nations Statistical Officebased its estimates of average annual volumeof goods loaded and unloaded in maritimetransport mostly on information availablein external trade statistics. Petroleum productsexclude bunkers and those productsnot generally carried by tanker, namely,paraffin wax, petroleum coke, asphalt, andlubricating oil, which are included with thedata for dry cargo.Offshore Magazine annually queries nationalgovernments for statistics on offshoreoil and gas resources. These data are supplementedwith figures from oil- and gas-producingcompanies, expert sources, andpublished literature. National governmentsoften have difficulty providing offshore gasproduction figures; the data are more frequentlyobtained from alternative sources.Figures for offshore oil and gas productionin Middle Eastern countries are particularlydifficult to obtain and, as a result, are lessreliable.Proven reserves of offshore crude oil andgas represent the fraction of total resourcesthat can be recovered in the future, givenpresent and expected economic conditionsand existing technological limits.Table 23.2 Nutrient Dischargesand Predicted Concentrations inU.S. EstuariesSources: NOAA/EPA Team on NearCoastal Water, Strategic Assessment of NearCoastal Waters, Susceptibility of East Coast Estuariesto Nutrient Discharges: PassamaquoddyBay to Chesapeake Bay, Summary Report (Departmentof Commerce, Washington, D.C.,June 1989); Strategic Assessment of NearCoastal Waters, Susceptibility of East Coast Estuariesto Nutrient Discharges: Albemarle/Pamlico Sound to Biscayne Bay, Summary Report(Department of Commerce, Washington,D.C., June 1989); Strategic Assessment ofNear Coastal Waters, Susceptibility and Statusof Gulf of Mexico Estuaries to Nutrient Discharges,Summary Report (Department ofCommerce, Washington, D.C., June 1989);Strategic Assessment of Near Coastal Waters,Susceptibility and Status of West Coast Estuariesto Nutrient Discharges: San Diego Bay toPuget Sound, Summary Report (Departmentof Commerce, Washington, D.C., October1991).Physical and hydrological characteristicsof an estuary determine its susceptibility toconcentrate dissolved and particulate pollutants.Susceptibility can be quantified bytwo parameters: dissolved concentrationpotential (DCP), which is the relative abilityof an estuary to concentrate dissolvedpollutants (in this case, phosphorus and nitrogen);and particle retention efficiency(PRE), which is the relative ability of an estuaryto trap suspended particles and attachedpollutants (primarily toxic materials).The DCP, a function of the total volumeof an estuary, the volume of freshwaterin the estuary, and the rate of freshwaterinflow, assesses the effect of flushingand estuarine dilution on a load of dissolvedpollutants. The PRE, also a functionof estuary volume and annual freshwaterinflow, equates an estuary's relative abilityto retain sediment to its ability to concentrateparticulate pollutants.Total drainage area, the sum of estuarineand fluvial drainage areas, includes allriver basins discharging into an estuary.Pluvial drainage area extends over the entirewatershed upstream of the estuarine drainagearea. Estuarine drainage area is measuredfrom the head of tide and the seaward estuarineboundary as cataloged by the U.S.Geological Survey (USGS). Estuarine drainagearea may include a coastal portion,which is the extent of all the counties borderingthe estuary directly, and a noncoastalportion, which is the area of estuarine drainagebeyond the coastal counties. Upstreamis defined as the total of noncoastal estuarinearea plus the fluvial drainage area.Excessive nutrient loads, mainly nitrogenand phosphorus, are responsible for the eutrophicationof estuaries, which may lead toalgal blooms, emissions of noxious odors,and massive kills of marine organisms. Theannual loadings of nitrogen and phosphorusentering each estuary were estimatedseparately for coastal and upstream areas.Coastal point sources include wastewatertreatment plants and land-based industrialfacilities discharging directly to surfacewater within a coastal county portion of theestuarine drainage area. The transport ofnutrients from surface waters is calculatedseparately for four land-use classes (agriculture,forest, urban, and other nonurban).The total nutrient discharge resulting fromthese four land-use categories within thecoastal county portion of estuarine draingearea is defined as coastal nonpoint discharge.

Upstream sources contain point and nonpointsources and include discharge fromall riverine sources with an average annualflow greater than 1,700 liters per minute.Estimates for annual nitrogen and phosphorousloadings do not account for otherpossible sources such as ocean influx,groundwater inflow, bottom sediments,wetlands, barren lands, and direct atmosphericdeposition. The estimates for pointand nonpoint sources are "end of pipe" and"edge of field" loadings, which represent ahigh estimate because they ignore transportphenomena (e.g., phosphorus tied with sedimentsor nitrification).The predicted concentration of nitrogen andphosphorus is based on the DCP and annualnutrient loadings. This estimate doesnot account for nutrient recycling in the estuary,which in some systems may be responsiblefor a greater percentage ofnutrient concentration in the estuary thannew loadings entering the system eachyear. Low predicted concentrations (lessthan 0.1 milligram of nitrogen per liter andless than 0.01 milligram of phosphorus perliter) suggest maximum potential in the diversityof aquatic life. High predicted concentrations(more than 1 milligram ofnitrogen per liter and more than 0.1 milligramof phosphorus per liter) are associatedwith high chlorophyll levels, lowspecies diversity, and occasional red tides.The predicted concentration is a general indicatorof the potential for eutrophicationin an estuary. The degree to which real eutrophicationoccurs is dependent on otherfactors: nutrient recycling in the estuaryand temporal changes in loading resultingfrom stratification phenomena, and/orchanges in the agricultural runoff and freshwaterinflow. Actual and long-term measurementsof nutrient concentrations inU.S. estuaries do not currently exist.Table 23.3 Marine Fisheries,Yield and Estimated PotentialSources: Marine fishery production: Foodand Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations (FAO), Yearbook of Fishery Statistics1983,1984, and 1989 (FAO, Rome, 1984,1986, and 1991). Estimated fishery potential:M.A. Robinson, Trends and Prospects inWorld Fisheries, Fisheries Circular No. 772(FAO, Fisheries Department, Rome, 1984).FAO divides the world's oceans into 19marine statistical areas and organizes annualcatch data by 840 "species items," speciesgroups separated at the family, genus,or species level. Marine fish include the followingFAO species groupings: flounders,halibuts, soles, etc.; cods, hakes, haddocks,etc.; redfishes, basses, congers, etc.; jacks,mullets, sauries, etc.; tunas, bonitos, billfishes,etc.; herrings, sardines, anchovies,etc.; mackerels, snoeks, cutlassfishes, etc.;sharks, rays, chimeras, etc.; and miscellaneousmarine fishes. Cephalopods includesquids, cuttlefishes, octopuses, etc. Crustaceansare the total of the following categories:seaspiders, crabs, etc.; lobsters,spiny-rock lobsters, etc.; squat lobsters;shrimps, prawns, etc.; krill, planktonic crustaceans,etc.; and miscellaneous marinecrustaceans. Years shown are three-year averages.Total marine catch differs from marinecatch in Table 23.4 because thefollowing mollusc categories are not included:abalones, winkles, conchs, etc.; oysters;mussels; scallops; clams, cockles,arkshells, etc.; miscellaneous marine molluscs.Please refer to the Technical Note forTable 23.4 for the definition of nominal fishcatch and additional information on FAO'sfishery data base.Estimates of potential are FAO estimatesof marine fisheries' biologically realizablepotential. These estimates refer to the maximumharvest that can be sustained by afishery year after year, given average environmentalconditions. An assumed level ofincidental take (catching one species whilefishing for another) is subtracted from estimatesof potential. The.figures exclude thepotential harvest from marine aquaculture.Table 23.4 Marine and FreshwaterCatches, Aquaculture, andFish ConsumptionSources: Marine and freshwater catch:Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), Yearbook of FisheryStatistics 1983,1984,1986, and 1989 (FAO,Rome, 1984,1986,1988, and 1991). Aquacultureproduction: Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO),Fisheries Department, Aquaculture Production(1986-1989), Fisheries Circular No. 815,Revision 3, (FAO, Rome, July 1991). Foodsupply from fish and fishery products:Edmondo Laureti, Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations (FAO),Fisheries Department, Fish and Fishery Products—WorldApparent Consumption StatisticsBased on Food Balance Sheets (1961-1989),Fisheries Circular No. 821, Revision 1,(FAO, Rome, July 1991).Marine and freshwater catch data refer tomarine and freshwater fish killed, caught,trapped, collected, bred, or cultivated forcommercial, industrial, and subsistenceuse. Crustaceans, molluscs, and miscellaneousaquatic animals are included. Statisticsfor mariculture, aquaculture, and otherkinds of fish farming are included in thecountry totals. Quantities taken in recreationalactivities are excluded. Figures arethe national totals averaged over a threeyearperiod; they include fish caught by acountry's fleet anywhere in the world.Catches of freshwater species caught in lowsalinityseas are included in the statistics ofthe appropriate marine area. Catches of diadromous(migratory between saltwaterOceans and Coasts 23and freshwater) species are shown either inthe marine or inland area where they werecaught.Data are represented as nominal catch,which is the landings converted to a liveweightbasis, that is, weight when caught.Landings for some countries are identical tocatches.International fishery data are continuallyrevised. The Yearbook of Fishery Statistics1989, the latest edition, contains FAO'smost up-to-date published figures.Data are provided annually to the FAOFisheries Department by national fishery officesand regional fishery commissions.Some countries' data are provisional for thelatest year. If no data are submitted, FAOuses the previous year's figures or makesestimates based on other information.Years are calendar years except for Antarcticfisheries data, which are for splityears (July 1-June 30). Data for Antarcticfisheries are given for the calendar year inwhich the split year ends.Aquaculture is defined by FAO as "thefarming of aquatic organisms, includingfish, molluscs, crustaceans, and aquaticplants. Farming implies some form of interventionin the rearing process to enhanceproduction, such as regular stocking, feeding,and protection from predators, etc. [It]also implies ownership of the stock beingcultivated . ..." Aquatic organisms that areexploitable by the public as a commonproperty resource are included in the harvestof fisheries.FAO's global collection of aquaculturestatistics by questionnaire was begun in1984; today, these data are a regular featureof the annual FAO survey of world fisherystatistics.FAO's 840 "species items" are summarizedin six categories. Freshwater fish includecarps, barbels, tilapias, and otherfreshwater fishes. Diadromous fish include,among others, sturgeons, river eels, salmons,trouts, and smelts. Marine fish includea variety of species groups such as flounders,halibuts, and redfishes. Crustaceansinclude, among others, freshwater crustaceans,crabs, lobsters, shrimps, and prawns.Molluscs include freshwater molluscs, oysters,mussels, scallops, clams, and squids.Other includes frogs, turtles, and aquaticplants. Data on whales and other mammalsare excluded from this table. For a detailedlisting of species, please refer to the most recentFAO Yearbook of Fishery Statistics.Average annual food supply from fish andfishery products is the quantity of fish andfish products available for human consumption.It is calculated as apparent consumption—productionminus nonfood uses,minus exports, plus imports—of eightgroups of primary fishery commodities andnine groups of processed products and estimatedin the food balance sheets of FAO.World Resources 1992-93343

24. Atmosphereand ClimateThe Earth's atmosphere is changing, and we do notfully understand what the effect of those changes willbe on our own lives, much less the lives of our children.It is easy to imagine effects that could be catastrophicfor life on this planet. Yet, in the face of thesepossibilities and our inadequate understanding ofEarth processes, anthropogenic emissions of tracegases—pollutants that affect climate, the ozone layer,and human health—continue.Industrial emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), fromthe burning of fossil fuels and the production of cement,continue and grow. Table 24.1 shows that theseemissions differ considerably from country to countryon both a total and a per capita basis. Measured on aper capita basis, a disproportionate share of thesegases are emitted by industrialized and oil-producingcountries. For example, per capita emissions in theUnited States reached 19.7 metric tons in 1989. In contrast,per capita emissions in China were only 2.2 metrictons and in India only 0.8 metric tons. CO2 is themost important of the greenhouse gases. (See Chapter13, "Atmosphere and Climate.")Table 24.2 shows estimates by country of the CO2emitted in the course of deforestation, as well as emissionsof methane (CH4) and chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs), other important greenhouse gases. This tabledescribes the global anthropogenic emissions and theirdistribution by source and by country.Deforestation remains an important source of CO2 inthe atmosphere, making up about one quarter of totalanthropogenic emissions. Although deforestation inBrazil has declined considerably in recent years (seeChapter 8, "Forests and Rangelands"), it accounts foralmost 15 percent of CO2 from deforestation and is thelargest single country source. The countries of Southand Southeast Asia together, however, account forfully 41 percent of CO2 emissions from deforestation.Overall China emits the most CH4 at 40 million metrictons, followed by the United States (37 million),India (36 million), and the U.S.S.R. (34 million). Animalhusbandry provides the largest component of anthropogenicemissions of CH4, and India—the countrywith the largest number of cattle—emits almost 14 percentof the global livestock total. Another anthropogenicsource of CH4 is wet rice agriculture. India and Chinaeach emit 26 percent of CH4 attributable to this source;only small amounts are emitted outside Asia. TheU.S.S.R. is the largest emitter of CH4 from gas productionand transmission (35 percent) and is second (19percent) only to China (33 percent) in CH4 emissionsfrom coal production. Large and populous countriesare also the sources of the largest emissions from solidwaste disposal. The United States leads at 37 percent,with the U.S.S.R. a distant second.CFC emissions, as well as being potent greenhousegases, cause depletion of the ozone layer. Policy mechanismsfor their control are already in place. Nevertheless,an estimated 580,000 metric tons were emitted in1989. The United States (22 percent) and Japan (16 percent),the two leading industrial powers, were also theleaders in the use and emission of these gases.Table 24.3 shows the increasing atmospheric concentrationsof trace gases with greenhouse and ozone-depletingeffects. Since preindustrial times, CO2 concentrationshave increased 26.5 percent; CH4 has increased143.5 percent—although CH4 concentrations are a tinyfraction of CO2 concentrations—and the chlorinatedtrace gases appeared for the first time (they are the consequenceof modern industrial processes).Most of the increase in CO2 concentrations is due tothe burning of fossil fuels. Table 24.4 shows that totalannual emissions have reached almost 22 billion metrictons. Indeed, they have increased by 260 percentsince 1950 (on a per capita basis they have increasedmore than 75 percent). Emissions from solid fuel consumptionhave more than doubled, those from liquidfuel consumption have increased almost 500 percent,and those from gas consumption have increased almost900 percent.Not all anthropogenic emissions of pollutants are increasinginexorably. Data from the industrialized countries(Table 24.5) show that sulfur and nitrogen emissionshave declined in countries that have attemptedto control them. In general, the countries in Europe (includingthe European part of the U.S.S.R.) have madeheadway in controlling sulfur dioxide emissions overthe past 20 years. However, efforts to control nitrogenemissions have had mixed results. Sulfur and nitrogenemissions are precursors of acid rain as well as air pollutantsthat affect human health.Table 24.6 shows that the United States has decreasedemissions of carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter(PM), and hydrocarbons (HC) since 1980. In contrast,the United Kingdom's CO and HC emissions increasedover the same time period; PM emissions decreasedonly slightly.World Resources 1992-93345

24 Atmosphere and ClimateTable 24.1 CO 2 Emissions from Industrial Processes, 1989WORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuelaCarbon Dioxide Emissions (000 metric tons)Solid Liquid GasGasFlaringCementManufactureTotal8,764,2888,863,2163,466,144205,184556,928 21,863,0883,019 20,73117,0342,4663,24346,492001,707319 2,440 4984,965418 000 000 249 6671,700 000 1,7000 520520270,029256,46251,98545,16223,867647,35218 1581764000 5,7715,7747777264264202202000o2,93900355004371760152024,9941720421511,5767,24732659,3491062,4404,9831833,2321,0001474,232072923,6298504254142,96480215,1078350575264000032,8263812,964671960239,3620443110344088788713,7691,955,11000107,352060100000020,44502601,826,14967,0444,316039,1249,20013,21200048426066734,7683,26501,9384328,9048762,7081,5351,9312,616,103810180209,3832,28633,7785,9762,0373,2686161,6824,719234,6242,1292,4375,5182,075,685345,19362,8343,111146,81618,29428,29012,7696601,55718,4231,3854,51446,04200004 169 2900000 348012,3554,8360001250531 2,242 7000 00028211,168 1,682 1,3560000 0000 183715440 0 00 0 000605000004400121 1,898000 1980158,295 36,131 1,7444000 00000ooooo2,15400001,109,584550128,130062049,2550957,251924,735102,61042,8501,3856,5333,1778,533191009970038,945ooooo4,33873015019433 2,4880000422719135921,62958,4220106004,789 5,87700 2711,85407690 31500 806110029701803,671 11,7100 5101765,6211917,54834,89218,88123,5635,9323152,0233006781,36300282007,988511,7737,59532679,4831062,5657,8261833,5211,0001475,192077337,8429016344253,0231,00022,1201,20501,00879,263381191 3,15100 6719602,22825312,4588573,1189930161993262312,246278,4683,3384432,09962713,9238793,8222,61216,0595,760,830971180455,5302,55736,2926,7452,3524,0717251,9794,899319,7022,1802,73018,5804,869,005557,298118,1575,064206,95731,83353,83115,3166601,72221,1741,4404,74995,887Per CapitaCarbon DioxideEmissions(metrictons)4.211.031.910.510.151.360.070.040.510.220.070.040.110.810.660.811.540.290.046.890.220.260.180.150.220.000.298.650.070.070.041.540.950.920.070.000.150.770.040.440.180.158.060.150.590.070.181.760.040.110.331.7213.603.810.9517.330.883.440.950.440.440.110.402.023.700.591.1414.7319.681.913.700.701.392.451.651.470.840.400.993.481.544.98346World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 24Table 24.1Solid Liquid GasCarbon Dioxide Emissions {000 metric tons)GasFlaringCementManufactureTotalPer CapitaCarbon DioxideEmissionsASIA 3,147,431 1,948,556 392,605 66,670 256,795 5,812,064 1.93Afghanistan388 1,8103,660363 51 6,2730.40Bahrain02,5549,6070000 012,16124.37Bangladesh480 6,0317,416 187 14,1140.11Bhutan40 2900 00330.04Cambodia4514510.07ChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep){a](People's Dem Rep){ajEUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep){a}(Dem Rep){a}1,964,032202461,8038,9994,17049,318303,9950136,94697,0370002,9727,69427121607,1815,0970044009,67350,036013,1870X1,970,0713,89513,54940,25360,544156,13820,69120,31374,409283,623X29,19528,01523814,07352,7103,97269231,2283,811370,0059,65586,62873,63513,6591,488251,27774,2031,328,885292,6993,561143,92981,722110,19150,79422,376603,1578,5309,570103,46811,2632278,26630,4192,3082,3785863,98629,03733,8742,631110,26134,9623,83625,23050,60458,11815,7664,1883,147X1,616,2234,67925,91937,85631,99844,97922,22225,981214,813247,478X28,817015,53515,33442,5902,4817792,816005,41517,353009,73202,07404,45519,218010,52751,270004439,9156,06431,21000X623,9727629,84216,55811,69219,8083,0814,26155,96496,568X28220,97604,19976,926927064,1056,54019,529009,68824,6482,8849,3840810002,114003,55009901,3412,059007,49700740002,17300X15,129000001800Greece34,9364New Zealand4,60911,8939,200 0Papua New Guinea4 2,24600 0Solomon Islands0 1610Hungary13,1390Iceland1,6490Ireland10,2630Italy241,9380LuxembourgMalta4,09398200Netherlands27,667227Norway24,717Poland43,939Portugal28,271010,25900Romania52,43966,1650Spain107,23110,010147Sweden43,184949Switzerland31,6313,48800United Kingdom201,560104,7103,942Yugoslavia42,70411,7470U.S.S.R.1,237,8421,129,99637,530OCEANIA146,985100,76439,7580Australia141,93281,74830,558 0Fiji3764500Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.Notes: a. Data for Yemen and Germany combine data from their previous divisions.Estimates are ot the carbon dioxide emitted, 3.664 times the carbon it contains.World and regional totals include countries not listed.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.531X103,06842920,9807,0246,2406,2401,12940,5068874,97215,18744704512,3892971871324733,4811,9901504,7498501981,7447,48611,8601,795795348X122,4403992,3933,4372,7595,42699374711,98113,201X6,5111,9465981318,17327501,7626857,4602,9826,96212,2051,0962,7226,9624,25069,7523,7453,2390476002,388,6134,192651,936137,726166,07468,89832,9031,040,5549,416151,488221,10431,1812278,72049,06110,3035,00993410,25960,97340,96013,308173,77635,8604,03428,15477,680126,07850,94418,1703,495X4,347,7949,73251,69998,104106,989226,34747,00951,300357,163641,398X70,92064,0761,94229,352389,7479,2661,674124,99046,009440,92940,912212,193203,22758,88839,326568,451132,9013,804,001291,248257,48067826,1762,250161(metrictons)2.166.050.770.773.113.777.258.462.427.075.2015.760.073.262.824.840.110.047.070.510.6637.5912.7913.340.222.341.432.3132.940.290.40X8.743.046.829.9711.8714.479.1610.336.3810.48X7.076.057.697.956.8224.924.768.4310.9611.543.999.165.207.005.949.895.6113.2611.1615.460.927.770.590.51World Resources 1992-93347

24 Atmosphere and ClimateTable 24.2 Other Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1989WORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuelaCarbon DioxideEmissions fromLand UseChange(000 metric tons)6,400,0001,500,000X33,0009,5002,60017,00053060,000X13,00015,000X12,000350,000XX1,80030,0009,3001,90031,00037,00018,00013,000X39,000X120,00058,0007,700XXX30,000X7,400270,0002,10011,0004,6005,200X98,000X21,0002,900X10,000130,00027,00016,000420,000XXX26,0008901,3001,60041,00086042,000810200,00059,00019,00033022,0001,800,000X37,000950,000X420,000160,0001,10067,000140,0001,100X59,000SolidWaste46,0002,0005622103171225161314261120193323414252X510251820525735X162401517914680542558184087152119,000101,7006241514211310619085317,000660731634030712329481943Methane from Anthropogenic Sources (000 metric tons)CoalMiningOil and GasProduction39,000 37,000229XXX X2 9002,000 4,200X770X180X X3 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX12XX1199XXXXX170X XX XXXXXXXXXXXX230XXXXXXXXXX121XXXXXXX 2,700X0X XX XXX1,900 XXXXX XXXXX 8X XX X0X42X8,800 7,400X0XX560 1,100XX X0X XXXXX XXXXXX130660XXXXX4708,100 5,200180 2,2000740X4682001548160120X100XXXXWet riceAgriculture Livestock Total72,000 76,000 270,0002,300X82X1468X4962140X260XX0425250638X61X740145120247X6140115100111X1909X10120601,000X0X8120493683030181307409401613430827040195534522189.50014013043911401819019020044501022001,300113696814590X45337045240130223051X21063029120147408201,100255502064160711002408,90012740641908843817095131,300635646,00014,0002,9002607,7001709201609290220350048019,000970340549717034230210022011212001167011,4001701812030072640X63290860733101404310130X2303,70046160977603,4001,20027740349021029012031045,000224,100783101605911090110182,300877547037,00018,0003,8003608,8002701,50033027310330435301,400Chlorofluorocarbons(000 metric tons)580161XXXXXXXXXXX1X3XX0X1XX0X0X0XXXX1XXX000XX7XXX00XXX11500X1100001X01500013015306020X00002348World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 24Table 24.2MongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)Carbon DioxideEmissions fromLand-UseChange(000 metric tons)X380,00032,000X4,000SolidWaste5954132501401296392513012031501769,40050150220150250100981,1001,200300Methane from Anthropogenic Sources (000 metric tons)CoalMining5XXX11XXXXXX29X84XX3,900XX542270XX120Oil and GasProductionX24X130300X85960XXWet riceAgriculture Livestock TotalX3,100430X1,100250470400151,7002603,2001,0001503,4002,400881,10075401906,3008804803,600802626,000953104503308202701802,6003,000680Chlorofluorocarbons(000 metric tons)ASIA 2,600,000 9,100 16,000 6,000 67,000 25,000 130,000 140AfghanistanX45 72110 250 480BahrainX177X079Bangladesh8,700250 60 5,100970 6,900Bhutan8604XX 301640Cambodia11,00018 7401101,100ChinaX2,600 13,000 230 19,000 5,300 40,00012CyprusX2XXX560India120,0001,9001,600830 19,000 11,000 36,0004Indonesia870,000 400126 5805,100600 6,5001Iran, Islamic RepX 1105502405501,5003IraqX40X 760 34 1209501IsraelX120XfX151403JapanX2.400 150 37 1,400 2804,10095JordanX7XXX X10171Korea, Dem People's RepX49600410521,200XKorea, RepX99360 X640 821,2005KuwaitX5XX 240 X32501Lao People's Dem Rep240,00011X 18083370XLebanonX5X XX510XMalaysia280,00039X 480270388902190,000XXX22,000X290,000XX150,000XXXxxxxxXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX58803460XXX3,600612001130X33790 170X 261,500XXX410X5,70033X3,200XX2502XX8XO CO O O OCO Ol OJ10048070015270CO O8,40037150170170290140X7914 1,300XX 890360Greece200X212 1503604Hungary17020 929 1204103Iceland5X XX 11160Ireland70XX 23X3404302Italy1,100160110600 2,00025Luxembourg7X XXX70Malta8XX XX180Netherlands290630X2601,2006Norway8301,100X711,3001Poland6001,20057 X650 2,5005Portugal2003X221303504AustraliaX1,100 1,600 250 68 2,000 5,0008FijiX2XX6XX0 7180New ZealandX64 18 74 980 1,1001Papua New Guinea12,000 91 XX X 51 151 XSolomon IslandsX X XRomania38041440336001,5002Spain770230 27X 32 5201,60017Sweden170XXXX 992703Switzerland13001102402United Kingdom1,1001,200 750X900 3,90025Yugoslavia46033462407504U.S.S.R.4,600 7,600 13,000370 7,900 34,00067OCEANIA12,0001,2001,60032075 3,000 6,2009Source: World Resources Institute.Notes: Carbon dioxide mass is 3.664 times its carbon content.0 = zero or less than half the unit of measure; X = not available.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.1X3101311XXX180X34142124277World Resources 1992-93349

24 Atmosphere and ClimateTable 24.3 Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse andOzone-Depleting Gases, 1959-90YearPreindustrial19591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990Sources:Notes:CarbonDioxide(CO2)ppm280.0315.8316.8317.5318.3318.8X319.9321.2322.0322.8323.9325.3326.2327.3329.5330.1331.0332.0333.7335.3336.7338.5339.8341.0342.6344.3345.7347.0348.8351.4352.8354.0Carbontetrachloride(CCW)ppta 0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX104106115123116121122121126130130127X126126127Methylchloroform(CH3CCI3)ppt0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX70788694112126127133144150158169X166 b172 b182 bCFC-11(CCI3F)ppt0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX120133148159167179185193205CFC-12(CCI2F2)ppt0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX200217239266283307315330350CFC-22(CHCIF2)ppt0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX4652596471CFC-113(C2CI3F3)ppt0XXXXXXXXXX2133667627 2,4982233848531 2,609232X404X98X35X2,722Xb256 b 416 b 109 b 44 b 2,843b265 b 433 b X51 b 2,834Xb275 b 466 b X53 b 2,970XCharles D. Keeling of Scripps Institution of Oceanography for Carbon dioxide and Oregon Graduate Center for other g. ases.a. Approximately, b. Preliminary data, previous years are not calibrated to the same standard. All estimates are by volume; ppm = parts per million;ppb = parts per billion; ppt = parts per trillion. X = not available. For further information, see Sources and Technical Notes.XXXXXXXXXXXXXX24TotalGaseousChlorineppt0XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX1,3861,4911,6401,7831,9132,0652,1132,1862,393NitrousOxide(N2O)ppb285.0 aXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX291.4293.3294.6296.4296.3297.6298.5301.0300.9300.4301.5302.5304.5306.3Methane(CH4)ppb700 aXXX1,354XX1,3861,3381,4801,3731,3851,4311,4361,5001,6241,5961,5411,4901,4711,5311,5451,5541,5691,5911,6151,6291,6431,6561,667 b1,681 b1,694 b1,704 bCarbonMonoxide(CO)ppbXXXXXXTable 24.4 World CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumptionand Cement Manufacture, 1950-89Source:Notes:Year1950195119521953195419551956195719581959196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989Total6,0026,5046,6066,7716,8557,5118,0068,3478,5669,0549,4759,5349,92210,46111,05111,55612,14212,53113,176. 13,95614,98915,54316,15517,03017,06016,96117,93518,44518,62019,66119,28718,79318,66418,63119,21019,67220,33920,74221,60721,863Carbon Dioxide Emissions (miIlions of metric tons)Solid Fuels3,9464,1664,1294,1484,1154,4524,6944,8254,9245,093Liquid Fuels1,5501,7551,8471,9532,0412,2902,4882,6162,6822,895Gas Fuels355421454480506550590652703784Gas Flaring84889599991141171281281323,1148611433,3169311543,5941,0151613,8581,0991724,1701,2021875,1994,9684,9765,1445,2835,3795,4415,3315,3355,4745,7565,7565,8155,8405,8296,1786,3136,5446,6036,9587,0397,0727,3027,3217,6508,0468,2558,4648,7508,7644,4744,8555,2185,6876,1346,7347,1307,5338,2078,2227,8088,4758,7578,7319,2888,8278,3257,9807,9258,0107,9478,3328,3728,7508,8631,2861,3921,5021,6301,7841,8912,0302,1362,2282,2642,2832,3712,3672,4702,6162,6562,6932,6892,6972,8763,0013,0633,2103,3563,466202220242267293319322344403392341399381392366326264253231209202191176202205Cement Manufacture6673818899110117125132147158165180187209216231238256271286308326348352348377396425436440443443458469480498520550557Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.Mass of carbon dioxide. Totals differ from the sum of other columns because of rounding. For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX727270737575XXXXPer CapitaEmissions(metric tons)2.382.532.532.562.532.712.862.932.933.043.153.113.153.263.373.483.553.593.703.854.074.104.214.324.254.144.324.364.324.514.324.144.073.994.034.074.104.144.214.21350World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 24Table 24.5 Sulfur and Nitrogen Emissions, 1970-89NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICACanadaUnited StatesASIAJapanTurkeyEUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R. (c)Sources:Notes:19706,67728,4004,973XXXXXX5745152,9663,743XXXXXSulfur Emissions(000 metric tons of SO2)1975 1980 19855,31925,9002,586XXXXXX4185353,3283,334XXXXX4,64323,4001,263276(50)3468281,0343,1004505843,5103,2005,0003,70421,100400 360 3601,63461,42061,2186220 138 148602,830X8073,331X4293,800244642,504162762,410122901,410X4561,507X464171 137 142 98 74XX 4,100 4,300 3,910159X176X116 178 266 204 20472 104XX 200 200 200X XX 3,003 3,250 3,250 3,250X 6259301256,424XX6901095,370XX5021264,8481,17612,800270963,6761,50011,100220743,5521,6509,3183021492,510XX3081622,427XXCo-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP);and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).X322(50)1584521,1403,1503403721,8462,4005,0001989X20,700 bX354(50)1244141,0302,8002423181,5201,5005,210a. 1990 estimate, b. 1988 data. c. European part of the U.S.S.R. under the purview ol EMEP.X = not available. Emissions in parentheses were estimated by EMEP.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.19701,36418,3001,651XXXXXXXX1,3222,381XXXXXNitrogen Emissions(000 metric tons of NO2; i1975 1980 19851,75619,2001,781XXXXXX1781601,6082,571XXXX1,95920,4001,400XX232317XX2412641,8342,980XXXX711,58523558192X166X9513941962,442350X1,95919,800X(175)(9)2192811501,1272632402,4002,95095515030012681,595195442031,50096(390)9503012142,278(190)2,93019891,943 a19,800 bX(175)(9)2112971509502672551,6883,00070815025912771,700195652201,48096(390)9503011942,513(190)4,190Table 24.6 Common Anthropogenic Pollutants, 1980-89NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICACanadaUnited StatesASIAJapanTurkeyEUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermany(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)GreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R. {d}Sources:Notes:Carbon Monoxide(000 metric tons)1980 1985 198910,27379,600XXX1,268XXXXX6,61612,006XXXX4975,487X1,413606X533X3,7801,2507114,829XX10,78169,600XXX1,205XXXXX6,2958,894XXXX4565,4262401,162588XXXXXXX60,900XXX1,161 bXXXXXX8,872XXXXX5,923X1,152592XXXXXPaniculate Matter(000 metric tons)1980 1985 19891,9078,500XXX75XXXXX427517XXXX94386X16327X119XX17028570XX1,7097,100XXX55XXXXX304397XXXX117390310123XXXXXXX6,900 bXXX39 bXXXXX298268XXXXX452 bX7620XXXX462215,318XX6,522XX555XX512XXCo-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP);and the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).a. 1990 estimate, b. 1988 data. c. All hydrocarbons, d. European part of the U.S.S.R. under the purview of EMEP.X = not available. Emissions in parentheses were estimated by EMEP.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.Hydrocarbons(000 metric tons)1980 1985 19892,09922,300X(700)(30)3823742,5944001971631,9752,754550(260)(270)(13)626961350215870055(440)8434103111,887(600)8,0562,31520,000X(700)(30)2,3153742,5944001461811,8772,624550(260)(270)(13)6473720416224700134(440)X4463391,926(600)8,0562,256 a18,500 bXXX466 bXXXXXX2,536XXXXX827 bX c399245X156 bXX440 b,c3042,066XXWorld Resources 1992-93351

24 Atmosphere and ClimateSources and Technical NotesTable 24.1 CO2 Emissions fromIndustrial Processes, 1989Source: Carbon Dioxide Information AnalysisCenter (CDIAC), Environmental SciencesDivision, Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory, "1989 Estimates of CO2 Emissionsfrom Fossil Fuel Burning and CementManufacturing Based on the United NationsEnergy Statistics and the U.S. Bureauof Mines Cement Manufacturing Data,"ORNL/CDIAC-25, NDP-030 (an accessiblenumerical data base), (Oak Ridge, Tennessee,July 1991).This table includes data on industrial additionsto the carbon dioxide flux from solidfuels, liquid fuels, gas fuels, gas flaring, andcement manufacture. CDIAC annually calculatesemissions of CO2 from the burning offossil fuels and the manufacture of cementfor most of the countries of the world. Estimatesof country emissions do not include"bunker fuels" used in international transport.CDIAC calculates emissions from data onthe net apparent consumption of fossil fuels(based on the World Energy Data Set maintainedby the United Nations Statistical Office),and from data on world cementmanufacture (based on the Cement ManufacturingData Set maintained by the U.S.Bureau of Mines). Emissions are calculatedusing global average fuel chemistry andusage.Although estimates of world emissionsare probably within 10 percent of actualemissions, individual country estimatesmay depart more severely from reality.CDIAC points out that the time trends froma consistent and uniform time series"should be more accurate than the individualvalues." Each year, CDIAC recalculatesthe entire time series from 1950 to the present,incorporating their most recent understandingand the latest corrections to thedata base. As a result, the carbon emissionsestimate data set has become more consistent,and probably more accurate, each year.Emissions of CO2 are often calculated andreported in terms of their content of elementalcarbon. CDIAC reports them that way.For this table, their figures were convertedto the actual mass of CO2 by multiplyingthe carbon mass by 3.664 (the ratio of themass of carbon to that of CO2).Solid, liquid, and gas fuels are primarily,but not exclusively, coals, petroleum products,and natural gas. Gas flaring is the practiceof burning off gas released in the processof petroleum extraction, a practice thatis declining. During cement manufacture, cementis calcined to produce calcium oxide.In the process, 0.498 metric ton of CO2 is releasedfor each ton of cement production.Total emissions consist of the sum of the carbonin CO2 produced during the consumptionof solid, liquid, and gas fuels, and fromgas flaringand the manufacture of cement.Combustion of different fossil fuels releasesCO2 at different rates for the same energyproduction. Burning oil releases about1.5 times the amount of CO2 released fromburning natural gas; coal combustion releasesabout twice the CO2 of natural gas.It was assumed that approximately 1 percentof the coal used by industry andpower plants was not burned, and an additionalfew percent were converted to nonoxidizinguses. Other oxidative reactions ofcoal are assumed to be of negligible importancein carbon budget modeling. CO2 emissionsfrom gas flaring and cement productionmake up about 3 percent of the CO2emitted by fossil fuel combustion.These data from CDIAC represent theonly complete global data set of CO2 emissions.Individual country estimates, basedon more detailed information and a country-specificmethodology could differ. Anexperts meeting, convened by the Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) in February 1991, hasrecommended (Estimation of Greenhouse GasEmissions and Sinks, OECD, Paris, August1991) that when countries calculate theirown emissions of CO2, they use a more detailedmethod when the data are available.Such data are available for only a few countries,and resulting inventories, if any, arenot readily available. CDIAC's method hasthe advantage of calculating CO2 emissionsfrom a single common data set available forall countries.Table 24.2 Other GreenhouseGas Emissions, 1989Sources: Land-use change: R.A. Houghton,R.D. Boone, J.R. Fruci, et al., "The Flux ofCarbon from Terrestrial Ecosystems to theAtmosphere in 1980 Due to Changes inLand Use: Geographic Distribution of theGlobal Flux," Tellus, Vol. 39B, No. 1-2(1987), pp. 122-139; World Resources Institute(WRI) recent assessments of rates of deforestation(See Table 19.1, Sources andTechnical Notes); and R.A. Houghton,"Tropical Deforestation and AtmosphericCarbon Dioxide," Climate Change, in press.Methane (CH4) from municipal solidwaste: Jean Lerner, personal communication(National Aeronautics and Space Administration[NASA] Goddard Space FlightCenter, Institute for Space Studies, May1989); H.G. Bingemer and P.J. Crutzen,"The Production of CH4 from SolidWastes," Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.92, No. D2 (1987), pp. 2181-2187.CH4 from coal mining: David W. Barnsand J. A. Edmonds, An Evaluation of the RelationshipBetween the Production and Use of Energyand Atmospheric Methane Emissions(U.S. Department of Energy, Office of EnergyResearch, Carbon Dioxide ResearchProgram, No. TR047, April 1990); World EnergyConference (WEC), 1989 Survey of EnergyResources (WEC, London, 1989).CH4 from oil and gas production and distribution:David W. Barns, J.A. Edmonds,An Evaluation of the Relationship Between theProduction and Use of Energy and AtmosphericMethane Emissions (U.S. Department of Energy,Office of Energy Research, Carbon DioxideResearch Program, No. TR047, April1990); CDIAC, Environmental Sciences Division,Oak Ridge National Laboratory, "1989Estimates of CO2 Emissions from FossilFuel Burning and Cement ManufacturingBased on the United Nations Energy Statisticsand the U.S. Bureau of Mines CementManufacturing Data," ORNL/CDIAC-25, NDP-030 (an accessible numericaldata base), (Oak Ridge, Tennessee, July1991); American Gas Association (AGA),"Natural Gas and Climate Change: TheGreenhouse Effect," Issue Brief 1989-7(AGA, Washington, D.C., June 14,1989);A.A. Makarov and LA. Basmakov, The SovietUnion: A Strategy of Energy Developmentwith Minimum Emission of Greenhouse Gases(Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland,Washington, U.S.A., 1990); and S. Hobart,David Spottiswoode, James Ball et al, MethaneLeakage from Natural Gas Operations (TheAlphatania Group, London, 1989).CH4 from wet rice agriculture: Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO), Agrostat PC (FAO, Rome,1991); Elaine Mathews, Inez Fung, and JeanLerner, "Methane Emission from Rice Cultivation:Geographic and Seasonal Distributionof Cultivated Areas and Emissions,"Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 5, No. 1(March 1991), pp. 3-24.CH 4 from livestock: Jean Lerner, ElaineMathews, and Inez Fung, "Methane Emissionsfrom Animals: A Global High-ResolutionData Base," Global BiogeochemicalCycles, Vol. 2, No. 2 (June 1988), pp. 139-156; Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe United Nations (FAO), Agrostat PC(FAO, Rome, 1991).Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions:WRI estimate based on information in theU.S. Environmental Protection Agency,Stratospheric Protection Program, Office ofProgram Development, Office of Air andRadiation, Appendices to Regulatory ImpactAnalysis: Protection of Stratospheric Ozone(Washington, D.C., August 1988), Vol. 2,Part 2, Appendix K, pp. K-2-4-K-2-6; Alliancefor Responsible CFC Use, unpublisheddata (Alliance for Responsible CFC Use, Arlington,Virginia, 1989); United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP), EnvironmentalData Report (Basil Blackwell Ltd., Oxford,1991, pp. 26-27; and UNEP, Report ofthe Secretariat on the Reporting of Data by theParties in Accordance with Article 7 of theMontreal Protocol, 1991.Carbon dioxide, CH 4 , CFC-11, and CFC-12 are the four most important greenhousegases. This table provides estimates of annualemissions of CO2 from land usechange (i.e., deforestation), methane emissionsby source, and current annual emissionsof CFC-11 and CFC-12 combined.Nitrous oxide, tropospheric ozone, andother chlorofluorocarbons are also importantto the greenhouse effect but less wellstudied and more difficult to estimate, especiallyat the national level. Troposphericozone has an average lifetime measured in352World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 24hours and is a product of particular chemicalprocesses involving the precursors CHU,carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and nonmethanehydrocarbons in the presence ofsunlight. Nitrous oxide emissions by countryhave proven difficult to estimate, in partbecause significant emissions are poorly understood.Production estimates and emissionparameters from chlorofluorocarbonsother than CFC-11 and CFC-12 are notavailable.The Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD) hosted anexperts meeting in February 1991 on greenhouseemissions (a final report was publishedin August 1991, Estimation of GreenhouseGas Emissions and Sinks [OECD, Paris])to discuss methodologies that countriescould use to estimate their own inventoriesof greenhouse gases (other than CFCs) andto point to areas requiring further research.Although these discussions served to illuminateand define the methods used here,the final published recommendations weredirected toward informing governments onwhat data they could collect and what kindof basic country-specific (and even ecosystem-specific)research is required if they areto "assess their contribution to greenhousegas emissions in an international context."The final report of the OECD experts meetingincluded additional suggested data setsand methods not fully discussed or validatedduring the meeting (such as a suggestedsource of deforestation data).The estimates of emissions in this tablecan be controversial but are believed to beaccurate estimates of the relative magnitudesof emissions and are believed to bethe best possible, given the available datasets. WRI would welcome independent estimatesof anthropogenic emissions of greenhousegases from the countries of theworld. The methods used here were chosento maximize the use of the available internationaldata so as to be comparable amongcountries. The international data set on anysubject is limited, and so these estimatesare also limited. Until most of the countriesof the world publish their own independentestimates—based on common methodsand scientifically validparameters—global comparisons will requirethe use of these methods of the leastcommon data set. Common methods andparameters were used between countriesunless differing, but explicit and published,parameters were available that covered allcountries. For example, estimates of CH4from coal mining were based on publisheddata on the differing CH4 content of differingcoals and their production in each countryof the world. More complexcalculations—that might have been possiblefor one or two data-rich countries—areinappropriate for the world as a whole andwere not attempted even for those fewcountries that might have sufficient (anduncontroversial) data.Carbon releases from land-use change arebased originally on the work of R.A.Houghton, R.D. Boone, J.R. Fruci, et al.They estimated the world flux of carbon in1980 from deforestation, reforestation, logging,and changes in agricultural area formost of the world's tropical countries. Theburning of biomass, however, does not necessarilycontribute to the CO2 flux. Fire is anatural process, and as long as burning andgrowth are in balance, there is no net movementof carbon from biomass to the atmosphere.The carbon densities used here are basedon more recent work by Houghton (1991)and used different estimates of carbon densities(including carbon sequestered insoils). These CO2 emissions estimates explicitlyinclude shifting cultivation and thediversion of forest fallow to permanentclearing. They are also consistent, based ona sound methodology, and global in scope.New estimates of carbon densities by foresttype are expected from Brazil in 1992. (SeeChapter 19, "Forests and Rangelands.")They are the most complete estimates availablebut are subject to modification shouldbetter data become available. More recentestimates of deforested areas were used toupdate Houghton's 1987 study where appropriate.Please consult the sources formore detail.Although, in principle, emissions fromland-use change should include the emissionsof other gases from the burning of forestland, as well as emissions from theburning of grassland, the conversion ofgrassland to cropland, the creation of wetlands,and the burning of crop and animalresidues, the international data sets neededto estimate these emissions do not exist(OECD experts meeting). Except for CO2emissions from deforestation, then, emissionsfrom biomass burning in general arenot available. Grass or trees that grow backafter fire merely recycle the carbon and donot contribute CO2 to long-term greenhouseheating.WRI also subtracted the weight of carboncontained in sawlogs and veneer logs(Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations [FAO], Agrostat PC, [FAO,Rome, 1991]) produced in each tropicalcountry from CO2 releases calculated fromland-use change. Carbon was estimated asmaking up 45 percent of the weight ofthese wood products. This step was takento approximate the carbon sequesteredfrom the global carbon cycle by the productionof durable wooden goods in each country.This is only an estimate becauseportions of other forest products are also sequestered(e.g., books in libraries, pit props,utility poles); and portions of saw and veneerlogs are consumed (e.g., wastewood,disposal of plywood sheets used in concreteform building). This should lead to asmall underestimate of total CO2 emissionsbecause it includes logs from areas notcounted as deforested. The OECD, in its reporton the experts meeting, suggestedusing a data set on global deforestation(Norman Myers, Deforestation Rates in TropicalForests and Their Climatic Implications[Friends of the Earth, London, 1989]) that isinadequate and so was not used in thistable. The methods for estimating emissionsfrom land-use change, suggested bythe OECD experts meeting, requires dataand research into processes that do not yetexist. The method used here parallels thatof R.A. Houghton, which has received peerreview.Choices must be made regarding theexact parameters to use in these calculations,but the deforestation and carbon densitymeasures used here are the bestgeneral set available. The parameters usedfor this calculation were based on consistentdefinitions and common data sources.Even if slightly lower values were used fordeforestation and biomass per area, themagnitude of carbon emissions would remainabout the same. These estimates thenare a good first approximation to current(i.e., circa 1989) emissions that result fromland-use changes. There is some suggestionthat northern temperate and boreal forestareas are net sinks for atmospheric carbon,although this, too, is controversial.CH4 emissions from municipal solid wastewere calculated by multiplying the 1989population by per capita emission coefficientsdeveloped for each country by H.G.Bingemer and P.J. Crutzen, in "The Productionof CH4 from Solid Wastes," journal ofGeophysical Research, Vol. 92, No. D2 (1987),pp. 2181-2187. RJ. Cicerone and R.S. Oremland,"Biogeochemical Aspects of AtmosphericMethane," Global BiogeochemicalCycles, Vol. 2, No. 4, (December 1988), pp.299-327, suggest a likely range for annualworld emissions from landfills at 30 millionto 70 million metric tons. The method usedhere parallels that recommended by theOECD experts meeting.Methane from coal mining was estimatedusing information on the average methanecontent of anthracite and bituminous coals,subbituminous coals, and lignite mined(WEC) in each country of the world. Thislatter data set is updated only every threeyears, and so the most recent year forwhich the necessary data are available is1987. Less detailed data sets are availablebut inadequate to the task. This estimate assumedthat 100 percent of the CH4 in extractedcoal was emitted, although this is aslight exaggeration. CH4 is emitted frommines in larger quantities than that containedonly in the coal removed—althoughin the long run, the CH4 in an extractabledeposit of coal will be emitted, on average,at the rate that it is mined. CH4 trappedwithin the rock is released by mining, andit is one of the hazards of underground coalmining. Cicerone and Oremland (Aspects ofAtmospheric Methane) show a likely range of25^15 million metric tons of CH4 emittedannually in the course of mining coal. Nointernational data set exists that wouldallow internationally comparable estimatesusing a methodology suggested by theOECD in its report on the experts meeting.Substantial quantities of CH4 are releasedto the atmosphere in the course of oil andgas production and distribution. CH4vented in the course of oil production is estimatedat 25 percent of the amount that isflared (Gregg Marland, Carbon Dioxide Informationand Analysis Center [CDIAC],Oakridge, Tennessee [personal communication],1990). Estimates of CO2 from gas flaringin Table 24.1 also include gas that isvented (see also Barns and Edmonds, p.3.9). CH4 emissions from natural gas pro-World Resources 1992-93353

24 Atmosphere and Climateduction were estimated at 0.5 percent ofproduction (Barns and Edmonds, pp. 3.2-3.3). Recent estimates are that CH4 leakagefrom distribution systems is no more than 1percent in the United States (American GasAssociation, "Natural Gas and ClimateChange: The Greenhouse Effect") and nomore than 1.7 percent in the Soviet Union(Makarov and Basmakov, The Soviet Union:A Strategy of Energy Development with MinimumEmission of Greenhouse Gases), althoughcareful surveys have not been done. Thereis reason to believe that pipeline leaks inthe U.S.S.R. are grossly understated—althoughU.S.S.R. natural gas volume is sometimesmistakenly overstated—but otherestimates are non-existent. For these estimates,the U.S. experience was extended toWestern Europe, Canada was counted athalf the United States rate, and the Sovietestimate was used for Central Europe andthe developing world because their situationswere thought to be similar (S. Hobartet ah, Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Operations).Cicerone and Oremland (Aspects ofAtmospheric Methane) suggest a likely rangeof 25 million to 50 million metric tons ofCH4 emitted because of leaks associatedwith natural gas drilling, venting, and transmission.The OECD experts meeting developeda general conceptual model on how togo about estimating emissions from theseproduction and distribution systems, but itwas unable to identify data on the factorsleading to emissions or any individual datasource for this purpose.CH4 from the practice of wet rice agriculturewas calculated from the area of riceproduction (as reported by the FAO,AgrostatPC, FAO, Rome, 1991) subtractingthose areas devoted to dry (upland) anddeepwater (floating) rice production ineach country or, in the case of China andIndia, in each province (Dana G. Dalrymple,Development and Spread of High-YieldingRice Varieties in Developing Countries, Bureauof Science and Technology, U.S.Agency for International Development,Washington, D.C., 1986; and Robert E.Huke, Rice Area by Type of Culture: South,Southeast, and East Asia, International RiceResearch Institute, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines,1982). This estimate follows themethod suggested in the OECD report ofits experts meeting and calculates the numberof days of rice cultivation and the percentageof total rice area in each crop cycleby country or, in the case of China andIndia, by province (Elaine Mathews, InezFung, and Jean Lerner, "Methane Emissionsfrom Rice Cultivation: Geographicand Seasonal Distribution of CultivatedAreas and Emissions," Global BiogeochemicalCycies, Vol. 5, pp. 3-24).There are many different studies of CH4emissions from wet rice agriculture. In thepast, many of these studies had been criticizedbecause they had been undertaken ontemperate rices grown in North America orEurope. Recently published studies, basedon similar rigorous methods, from subtropicalChina have dispelled some of that criticism.Studies using similar methodologiesare expected soon from Indonesia andIndia. The OECD report of its experts meetingrecommended using a range of emissionsfound in a study in China (0.19-0.69grams of CH4 per square meter per day, H.Schiitz, W. Seller, and H. Rennenberg, presentationby Rennenberg at the InternationalConference on Soils and theGreenhouse Effect, August 14-18,1989,Wageningen, the Netherlands, reported bythe OECD experts meeting). The estimatehere used the midpoint of that range (0.44grams of CH4 per square meter per day), assumingthat this range is an unbiased estimateof the normally distributed range ofemissions of methane. Alternate estimatesare possible.A two-year study in the subtropical ricebowl of China (Szechuan province) producedan estimated median flux (fromsome 3,000 flux estimates) of about 1.2grams of CH4 per square meter per dayand a mean flux of 1.39 grams of CH4 persquare meter per day (M.A.K. Khalil, R.A.Rasmussen, Ming-Xing Wang, and LixinRen, "Methane Emissions from Rice Fieldsin China," Environmental Science and Technology,Vol. 25, No. 5, pp. 979-981). Studiesin Europe and North America seem to supportthe range suggested by the OECD expertsmeeting. See the sources for moreinformation. In general, estimates of CH4flux are based on a technique that capturesCH4 produced anaerobically before thegrowth of the rice plant as well as capturingthe bulk of CH4 production that istransported through the rice plant throughoutthe growing period. Growing periods,rice cultivar, fertilizers, temperature, andpossibly pesticides, could influencemethanogenesis. In the tropics, with modernvarieties, sufficient fertilizer, and adequatewater, two or even three rice cropsper year are possible.The cultivation of rice uses common techniquesin both temperate and tropicalclimes—even if the cultivars are not so welladapted. The preparation of the impoundmentswherein wet rice is grown—the creationof a hardpan overlain by soft anaerobicmuck—creates similar environmentaland chemical regimes wherever it occurs.Nonetheless, variations in water quality,soils, ambient temperature, precision ofwater control, and presence of cultivatedalgae or fish could also affect the total fluxof methane.Wet rice agriculture is practiced underfour main water regimes: irrigated (52.8percent of the world's total rice area), rainfed(similar to irrigated, 22.6 percent of thetotal), deep water (often dry in the earlypart of the season, may be planted to floatingrice, 8.2 percent of the world's rice area),and tidal (3.4 percent of the area). Ciceroneand Oremland {Aspects of AtmosphericMethane) suggest a likely range of 60 millionto 170 million metric tons for CH4 emissionsassociated with wet rice agriculture.CH4 emissions from domestic livestockwere calculated using FAO statistics on animalpopulations and published estimates ofmethane emissions from each animal. Theanimals studied included cattle and dairycows, water buffalo, sheep, goats, camels,pigs, horses, and caribou. P.J. Crutzen, I. Aselmann,and W. Seiler ("Methane Productionby Domestic Animals, Wild Ruminants,Other Herbivorous Fauna, and Humans,"Tellus, Vol. 38B [1986], pp. 271-284)estimated animal methane production onthe basis of energy intake under several differentmanagement methods for severaldifferent feeding regimes. These differingemission coefficients were then assigned toeach country, based on the specifics of thatcountry's animal husbandry practices andthe nature and quality of feed available. Ciceroneand Oremland's Aspects of AtmosphericMethane shows a likely range of 65million to 100 million metric tons of emissionsfrom enteric fermentation in domesticanimals. Alternate methods of estimation,such as a complex modeling methodsuggested in the OECD report, are not yetpossible because of the lack of basic data.The only other major anthropogenicsources of CH4, unaccounted for here, arethe emissions consequent to the burning ofbiomass. Extensive biomass burning, especiallyin the tropics, is believed to releaselarge amounts of CH4. Cicerone and Oremland(Aspects of Atmospheric Methane) putthe likely range of those emissions at 50million to 100 million metric tons. TheOECD experts meeting elaborated on thedata that would be necessary if countrieswere to estimate CH4 emissions from biomassburning.Other natural sources of CH4 includewetlands, methane hydrate destabilizationin permafrost, termites, freshwater lakes,oceans, and enteric emissions from otheranimals. Natural sources account for an estimated25 percent of all CH4 emissions.Cicerone and Oremland (Aspects of AtmosphericMethane) estimate likely ranges ofCH4 emissions at 100 million to 200 millionmetric tons from natural wetlands, 10 millionto 100 million metric tons from termites,5 million to 25 million metric tons from theoceans, 1 million to 25 million metric tonsfrom freshwater, and possible current releasesof 5 million metric tons (potentiallyrising to 100 million metric tons if temperaturesincrease in the high arctic) from methanehydrate destabilization.WRI has estimated total chlorofluorocarbonuse (CFC-11 and CFC-12) for many countries.It used data on 1986 per capita production/usefrom 47 countries and the EuropeanCommunity (EC) to peg consumptionin other similar countries, and updatedthese estimates using consumption data for15 countries plus the EC in 1989. This estimatewas based in part on the general levelof total CFC (including CFC-113 and CFC-22) consumption (i.e., less than 0.3 kg, 0.3-0.5 kg, and over 0.5 kg, from the Alliancefor Responsible CFC Use) and other relevantinformation. These data are, therefore,a mix of reported and estimated numbers.Consumption data for the EC, as reportedby the EC and UNEP, were allocated toeach member country in proportion to itsshare of the total EC population. Thus, allEC members are tied and among the highestper capita consumers of CFCs. (The ECcould have reported consumption by countrybut chose not to.)354World Resources 1992-93

Atmosphere and Climate 24Table 24.3 Atmospheric Concentrationsof Greenhouse andOzone-Depleting Gases, 1959-90Sources: Carbon dioxide: Charles D. Keeling,R.B. Bacastow, A.F. Carter, et ah, "AThree-Dimensional Model of AtmosphericCO2 Transport Based on Observed Winds:1. Observational Data and PreliminaryAnalysis," Aspects of Climate Variability inthe Pacific and the Western Americas, AmericanGeophysical Union (AGU) MonographNo. 55 (AGU, Washington, D.C., 1989), pp.165-236; and Charles D. Keeling, personalcommunication (Scripps Institution ofOceanography, La Jolla, California, 1991).Other gases: R.A. Rasmussen and M.A.K.Khalil, "Atmospheric Trace Gases: Trendsand Distributions Over the Last Decade,"Science, Vol. 232, pp. 1623-1624. Concentrationsafter 1985 of CCU, CH3CCI3, CCI3F(CFC-11), CCI2F2 (CFC-12), and N 2 O:M.A.K. Khalil and R.A. Rasmussen, unpublisheddata (Oregon Graduate Center, Beaverton,September 1989). C2CI3F3(CFC-113):M.A.K. Khalil and R.A. Rasmussen,unpublished data (Oregon GraduateCenter, Beaverton, September 1989). CHtdata, 1979-88: M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen,"Atmospheric Methane: Recent GlobalTrends," in preparation (1989). CH4 data,1962-78: M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen,and M.J. Shearer, "Trends of AtmosphericMethane During the 1960's and 70's," Journalof Geophysical Research, Vol. 94, No. D15(December 1989), pp. 18,279-18,288. Recentdata 1986-90: M.A.K. Khalil, personal communication,1991.The trace gases listed here affect atmosphericozone or contribute to the greenhouseeffect or both.Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounts for abouthalf the increase in the greenhouse effectand is emitted to the atmosphere by naturaland anthropogenic processes. See the TechnicalNotes for Tables 24.1 and 24.2 for furtherdetails.Atmospheric CO2 concentrations aremonitored at many sites worldwide; thedata presented here are from Mauna Loa,Hawaii (19.53°North latitude, 155.58° Westlongitude). Trends at Mauna Loa reflectglobal trends, although CO2 concentrationsdiffer significantly among monitoring sitesat any given time. For example, the averageannual concentration at the South Pole in1988, for example, was 2.4 parts per million(ppm) lower than at Mauna Loa.Annual means disguise large daily andseasonal variations in CO2 concentrations.The seasonal variation is caused by photosyntheticplants storing larger amounts ofcarbon from CO2 during the summer thanin the winter. Some annual mean figureswere derived from interpolated data.Data are revised to correct for drift in instrumentcalibration, hardware changes,and perturbations to "background" conditions.Details concerning data collection, revisions,and analysis are contained in CD.Keeling, et al., "Measurement of the Concentrationof Carbon Dioxide at Mauna LoaObservatory, Hawaii," Carbon Dioxide Review:1982, W.C. Clark, ed. (Oxford UniversityPress, New York, 1982).Calibration is necessary for all instrumentsused to measure trace gases. Althoughcollected at the same site by thesame investigators, trace gas concentrationsbefore 1986 have not been recalibrated ashave measurements from 1986 to 1990,which themselves should be consideredpreliminary. Carbon tetrachloride (CCU) is anintermediate product in the production ofCFC-11 and CFC-12. It is also used in otherchemical and pharmaceutical applicationsand for grain fumigation. Compared withother gases, CCU makes a small contributionto the greenhouse effect and to stratosphericozone depletion.Methyl chloroform (CH3CCI3) is used primarilyas an industrial degreasing agentand as a solvent for paints and adhesives.Its contribution to the greenhouse effectand to stratospheric ozone depletion is alsosmall.CFC-11 (CChF), CFC-12 (CCI2F2), CFC-22(CHCIF2) and CFC-113 (C2CI3F3) are potentdepletors of stratospheric ozone. Together,their cumulative effect may equal one fourthof the greenhouse contribution of CO2.Total gaseous chlorine is calculated by multiplyingthe number of chlorine atoms ineach of the chlorine-containing gases (carbontetrachloride, methyl chloroform, andthe CFCs) by the concentration of that gas.Nitrous oxide (N2O) is emitted by aerobicdecomposition of organic matter in oceansand soils, by bacteria, by combustion of fossilfuels and biomass (fuelwood andcleared forests), by the use of nitrogen fertilizers,and through other processes. N2O isan important depletor of stratosphericozone; present levels may contribute onetwelfth the amount contributed by CO2 towardthe greenhouse effect.Methane (CH4) is emitted through the releaseof natural gas and as one of the productsof anaerobic respiration. Sources ofanaerobic respiration include the soils ofmoist forests, wetlands, bogs, tundra, andlakes. Emission sources associated withhuman activities include livestock management(enteric fermentation in ruminants),anaerobic respiration in the soils associatedwith wet rice agriculture, and combustionof fossil fuels and biomass (fuelwood andcleared forests). CH4 acts to increase ozonein the troposphere and lower stratosphere;its cumulative greenhouse effect is currentlythought to be one third that of CO2,but on a molecule-for-molecule basis, its effect,ignoring any feedback or involvementin any atmospheric processes, is 20-30times that of CO2.Carbon monoxide (CO) is emitted by motortraffic, other fossil fuel combustion, slashand-burnagriculture, and chemical processesin the atmosphere such as the oxidationof CH4. Increasing levels of CO canlead to an increase in tropospheric ozoneand a buildup of other trace gases, particularlyCH4, in the atmosphere.Data for all gases except CO2 and CO arefrom values monitored at Cape Meares, Oregon(45"North latitude, 124" West longitude).Although gas concentrations at anygiven time vary among monitoring sites,the data reported here reflect global trends.Data for CO were taken from several sitesand averaged to reflect global concentrationsand trends.Table 24.4 World CO2Emissions from Fossil FuelConsumption and CementManufacture, 1950-89Source: Carbon Dioxide Information AnalysisCenter (CDIAC), Environmental SciencesDivision, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,Oak Ridge, Tennessee, unpublished data,July 1991.CDIAC calculates world emissions fromdata on the global production of fossil fuels(based on the World Energy Data Set maintainedby the United Nations Statistical Office),and from data on world cement manufacturing(based on the Cement ManufacturingData Set maintained by the U.S. Bureauof Mines). Emissions are calculatedusing global average fuel chemistry andusage. These data account for all fuels including"bunker fuels" not accounted for inTable 24.1. For further information, see theTechnical Notes for Table 24.1.Table 24.5 Sulfur and NitrogenEmissions, 1970-89Source: J.M Pacyna and K.E. Joerss, Co-operativeProgramme for Monitoring and Evaluationof the Long Range Transmission of AirPollutants in Europe (EMEP), Proceedings ofthe Workshop on International Emission Inventories,Regensburg, Federal Republic of Germany,July 3-6,1990, EMEP/CCC-Report7/90 (Norsk Institutt for Lurtforskning,Lillestrom, Norway, 1991), pp. 67-68; andOrganisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD), OECD EnvironmentalData Compendium 1991 (OECD,Paris, 1991), pp. 17-18.Emissions of sulfur in the form of sulfuroxides and nitrogen in the form of its variousoxides together contribute to acid rainand adversely affect agriculture, forests,aquatic habitat, and the weathering ofbuilding materials. Sulfate and nitrate aerosolsimpair visibility. These data on anthropogenicsources should be used carefully.Because different methods and proceduresmay have been used in each country, thebest comparative data may be time trendswithin a country.Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is created by naturalas well as anthropogenic activities. Highconcentrations of SO2 have importanthealth effects, and there is particular concernfor the health of young children, the elderly,and people with existing respiratoryillness (e.g., asthma). SO2 in the presence ofmoisture contributes to acid precipitationas sulfuric acid.Anthropogenic sources of nitrogen oxidescome mainly from industrial sourcesand contribute to photochemical smog andthe production of tropospheric ozone—animportant greenhouse gas. All oxides of ni-World Resources 1992-93355

24 Atmosphere and Climatetrogen also contribute to acid precipitation,in the form of nitric acid.This table combines data from bothEMEP and the OECD. EMEP is an activityof the 1979 Convention on Long-RangeTransboundary Air Pollution. Data on sulfurand nitrogen emissions are submitted toEMEP by parties to the 1985 Protocol onSO2 emissions and the 1988 Protocol onemissions of nitrogen oxides. Parties tothese protocols should submit preliminaryestimates of sulfur and nitrogen emissionsby May of the year following and final estimateswithin a year after that. In the eventof missing official data, EMEP interpolatesbetween years of official data. In the eventthat this is not possible, EMEP will use itsown—or others'—estimates of emissions.OECD polls its members on emissionswith questionnaires that are completed bythe relevant national statistical service ordesignee. OECD does not have any independentestimation capability.EMEP reports emissions in terms of the elementalcontent of sulfur, whereas OECDreports its emissions in terms of tons of oxidesof sulfur. EMEP emission estimateswere converted to their weight in SO2.EMEP and OECD report nitrogen emissionsin terms of nitrogen dioxide.Please consult the sources for further information.Table 24.6 Common AnthropogenicPollutants, 1980-89Source: J.M Pacyna and K.E. Joerss, CooperativeProgramme for Monitoring and Evaluationof the Long Range Transmission of AirPollutants in Europe (EMEP), Proceedings ofthe Workshop on International Emission Inventories,Regensburg, Federal Republic of Germany,July 3-6,1990, EMEP/CCC-Report7/90 (Norsk Institutt for Lurtforskning,Lillestrom, Norway, 1991), p. 69; and Organisationfor Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD), OECD EnvironmentalData Compendium 1991 (OECD, Paris,1991), pp. 21-26.This table reports OECD data for carbonmonoxide and particulate matter emissionsand combines both EMEP and OECD datato describe the emissions of hydrocarbons.See the sources and the notes to Table 24.5for additional information. Differences indefinition can limit the comparability ofthese estimates.Carbon monoxide (CO), is formed both naturallyand from industrial processes, includingthe incomplete combustion of fossil andother carbon-bearing fuels. Emissions fromautomobiles are the most important source,especially in urban environments. CO interfereswith oxygen uptake in the blood, producingchronic anoxia leading to illness or,in the case of massive and acute poisoning,even death. CO scavenges hydroxyl radicalsthat would otherwise contribute to theremoval of methane—a potent greenhousegas—from the atmosphere.The health effects of particulate matter(PM) are in part dependent on the biologicaland chemical makeup and activity ofthe particles. Heavy metal particles or hydrocarbonscondensed onto dust particlescan be especially toxic. PM arises from numerousanthropogenic and natural sources.Among the anthropogenic sources are combustion,industrial and agricultural practices,and the formation of sulfates fromsulfur dioxide emissions.In the presence of sunlight, hydrocarbonsare, along with oxides of nitrogen, responsiblefor photochemical smog. Anthropogenicemissions of hydrocarbons arise inpart from the incomplete combustion offuels or the evaporation of fuels, lubricants,and solvents as well as the incomplete burningof biomass. These data combine hydrocarbonemission data from OECD withvolatile organic compound data fromEMEP. EMEP uses OECD hydrocarbondata as volatile organic compound data forselected countries.356World Resources 1992-93

25. Policiesand InstitutionsTwo indicators of a country's commitment to environmentalprotection are its effective participation in relevantinternational agreements and its collection anddissemination of environmental information. Internationalcooperation on the environment continues togrow and will be a focus of discussion at the UnitedNations Conference on Environment and Development(UNCED) in June 1992. International conventionson global climate change, biological diversity,and forestry, if signed and ratified, would add to theinventory of agreements to safeguard the global environment.Tables 25.1 and 25.2 present information on currentcountry participation in critical international conventionsand regional agreements protecting the environment.In Africa, for example, realization of the dangersof uncontrolled toxic wastes has led to a convention onhazardous waste movement and management thatwas signed in 1991 in Bamako, Mali by 17 countriesand is in the ratification process. In Europe and NorthAmerica, the Convention on Environmental Impact Assessmentin a Transboundary Context, which wouldhelp prevent, mitigate, and monitor significant transboundaryenvironmental impacts, was signed in 1991in Helsinki by 26 countries and two republics of theU.S.S.R. In response to increasing levels of air pollutantsfrom industrial sources, 27 industrialized nations(26 listed here, plus Liechtenstein) and two republicsof the U.S.S.R. have ratified the 1979 Geneva Conventionon Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. Inresponse to the Chernobyl nuclear accident in April1986, two conventions were created on nuclear accidentnotification and assistance.The most recent global environmental convention,the Basel Convention on the Control of TransboundaryMovements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal,March 1989, was not yet in force in late 1991. Atthat time, 13 countries had ratified the convention andanother 41 countries had signed it (including Liechtenstein,which is not listed in Table 25.2).An amendment has been made in 1990 to the Protocolon Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer togradually reduce and finally phase out fully halogenatedchlorofluorocarbons, carbon tetrachloride, andmethyl chloroform between 1990 and 2005. As of late1991, this amendment had not yet been ratified byenough countries to enter into force.Countries continue to sign and ratify older conventionssuch as the Antarctic Treaty of 1959. The Protocolon Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treatywas signed by the contracting parties to the AntarcticTreaty on October 4,1991, in Madrid. This protocoldesignates Antarctica as a natural reserve and prohibitsmineral mining for the next 50 years.Table 25.3 lists sources of national environmentaland natural resource information. These sources providecomprehensive assessments of natural resourceand environmental conditions and often documenttrends and suggest policies for resource management.These assessments are becoming more comprehensiveand analytical as complex environmental issues becomebetter understood.An increasing number of countries are preparingcountry and regional natural resource and environmentalassessments, strategies, action plans, and compendiaof environmental statistics. In addition, in preparationfor UNCED, country reports are being producedby UN member states to reflect national experiencesand perspectives on environment and development.Much environmental information is requestedor instigated by foreign aid donors, development planners,resource policymakers, and finance ministers.This information is often an adjunct to action plans(e.g., the Tropical Forestry Action Plan, the NationalConservation Strategy) or describes a sector or specialissue (Biological Diversity Profile).The World Bank has increased its support of nationalenvironmental assessments and action plans fordeveloping nations (particularly in Africa) that are producedby, or in cooperation with, governments. However,more resources are needed to help countriesdevelop their own capacity for monitoring and assessingenvironmental problems.Table 25.4 lists sources of global and regional environmentalinformation. The OECD state of the environmentreport and the Asian and Pacific state of the environmentreport are examples of the increasing number of regionalenvironmental assessments. Large gaps remain in environmentalinformation on the Soviet Union, the newly independentBaltic republics, and Central Europe.World Resources 1992-93357

25 Policies and InstitutionsTable 25.1 Participation in Major Global Conventions—WORLDAntarcticTreaty andConvention1959 & 1980Wetlands(Ramsar)1971Wildlife and HabitatEndangeredWorld SpeciesHeritage (CITES)19721973MigratorySpecies1979OceanDumping1972ShipPollution(MARPOL)1978Law ofthe Sea {a}1982AFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuelaCP, MLRNCP, MLRNCPCP, MLRCP, MLRCP, MLRCP, MLRNCPCPCP, MLRCP{b}CP, MLRCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPssCPCPsCPsCPCPCPCPsCPsCPsCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPssCPCPCPssCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPsCPssCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPsCPssCPCPssssCPsCPssCPCPCPCPCPsssssCPssssCPsCPsCPsCPsCPCP sCPCPCPCPCPssCPssCPssCPCPssCPssCPsssCPss358World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 25Wildlife and Habitat, Oceans, 1991 Table 25.1ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.AntarcticTreaty andConvention1959 & 1980CPCP, MLRCP, MLRNCPCP, MLRNCPCP, MLRNCPNCPNCPCP, MLRCP, MLRCP, MLRNCP, MLRNCPCP, MLRCP, MLRCP, MLRCP, MLRNCPCP, MLRCP, MLRNCPCP, MLRCP, MLRWetlands(Ramsar)1971CPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPWildlife & HabitatWorldHeritage1972CPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPEndangeredSpecies(CITES)1973CPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPMigratorySpecies1979CPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPOceanDumping1972CPsCPCPCPCPsssCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPOceansShipPollution(MARPOL)1978CPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPLaw ofthe Sea {a}1982sCPssssCPsCPsCPsssCPssssssCPsCPsssssssCPs s ssssCPssssssssssssCPsOCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsSources:Notes:CP, MLRCP, MLRNCPCPCPCPCPCPEnvironmental Law Information System of the IUCN Environmental Law Centre and United Nations Environment Programme.a. Convention not yet in force.b. Extended through the Netherlands.CP = contracting party (has ratified or taken equivalent action); S = signatory (has signed but not ratified); MLR = contracting party to the Conventionon the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources; NCP = nonconsultative contracting party to the Antarctic Treaty.Some small countries-signatories or contracting parties to the conventions and protocols listed--are not included in this table.For formal titles of the conventions and protocols listed, and for additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.CPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPsssWorld Resources 1992-93359

25 Policies and InstitutionsTable 25.2Participation in Major Global Conventions—Global ConventionsAtmosphereHazardous SubstancesNuclearOzoneCFCBiologicaland ToxinNudearAccidentNuclearAccidentHazardousWasteRegional Agreements (b)UNEPOtherTest BanLayerControlWeaponsNotificationAssistanceMovement {a}RegionalRegional1963198519871972198619861989SeasAgreementsWORLDAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICASCPCPSSSCPCPCPCPCPCPSCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPSCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPsCPsCPsCPCPCPCPssCPsCPssCPssCPCPCPCPCPsssCPsCPCPCPCPCPsCPsCPCPCPCPsssCPsssCPsCPsCPsssssCPCPsssCPsCPsCPssCPM+WCA*WCAWCAWCAM+, RSWCAWCAWCAWCAEA+WCA*M+EA*WCA*M+WCAWCAEA*,RSRSWCAM+AFCAFC, HWAFC*AFC, EC, HWAFC, HW*AFC, HW*AFC, HW*AFC*AFC*AFCAFC, HW*AFCAFC, HW*AFC*AFC*AFC*AFCAFC, HWHW*AFCAFC, HW*AFCAFC, HW*AFCAFCAFC, HW*AFCAFCAFCAFCAFC, HWAFCAFCAFC, EC, HW*AFCAFC, HW*AFCAFCAFCAFC, HWAFCAFC, HW*AFCAFCBarbadosBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesCPCPCPCPCPsCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPssCPCPsCPs sCPCPsCPssCPCPsccccccc*SEP+, CcCSP*LR+, EIA*LR+, EIA*SOUTH AMERICAArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameUruguayVenezuelaCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPssCPCPssCPCPsssssSEP+SEP+.CSEP+SEP+CAMCAMCAMCAMCAMCAMCAMCAMC360World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 25Atmosphere, Hazardous Substances, 1991 Table 25.2ASMAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemen (Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)EUROPEAlbaniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaU.S.S.R.NuclearTest Ban1963CPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPSSCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPSCPCPCPCPCPCPCPAtmosphereOzoneLayer1985CPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCFCControl1987CPCPsCPSCPCPCPSCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPGlobal ConventionsHazardous SubstancesBiological Nuclear Nuclearand Toxin Accident AccidentWeapons Notification Assistance1972 1986 1986CPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPSCPCPCPCPCPCPCPSsCPCPCPCPssCPCPCPCPsCPSCPs sCPCPCP CP CPssCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPCPsCPsCPCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPSSCPCPsCPssCPCPsCPCPCPCPCPCPCPHazardousRegional Agreements (b)WasteUNEPOtherMovement {a} RegionalRegional1989 SeasAgreementsK+CPCPCPsss ss M+CPCPCPCPsCPCPCPsCPsCPCPCPsCPCPSsCPsCPssCPCPsCPCPsCPCPCPsCPsssCPss ss sCPs s CPssCPssCPssCPsCPCPssK+K+M+RSK+M+K+K+.RSM+M+K+RSM+M+,C,EA+,SP+M+M+M+C{c}M+C {d},SP*M+ECASCASCASCASCASCEC, LREIA*EC, LR+, EIA*EC, LR+, EIA*EC, LR+, EIA*LR+EC, LR+, EIA*EC, LR+, EIA*EC, SPC, LR+, EIAEC, LR+, EIA*EC, LR, EIA*EC, LR+, EIA*LR, EIA*EC, LR, EIA*EC, LR+, EIA*EC, LR+, EIA*EC, LR+, EIA*EC, LR, EIA*LR+, EIA*EC, LR, EIA*EIA*EC, LR+, EIA*EC, LR+, EIA*EC, LR+EC, LR+, EIA*LRLR+OCEANIAAustraliaCP CP CPCPCPCPSP+SPCFijiCP CP CPCPSP+SPCNew ZealandCP CP CPCPCPCP sSP+Papua New GuineaCPCPSP+SPC*Solomon IslandsCPSP+Sources: Environmental Law Information System of the IUCN Environmental Law Centre and United Nations Environment Programme.Notes: a. Convention not yet in force, b. Regional agreement letter codes (M, ML, etc.) indicate ratification of specific regional agreement, c. Ratified on behalf of Arubaand the Netherlands Antilles Federation, d. Ratified on behalf of British Virgin Islands, .__, Cayman ..., . Islands, .. . . and - the Turks and Caicos Islands.:CP = contracting party (has ratified or taken equivalent action); S = signatory; ' has signed ' or ratified : ' : - J ~* at '""* least two protocols •---'- — to this «-••- convention. -* = signatory to regional agreement.UNEP Regional Seas agreements: M = Mediterranean convention against pollution; WCA = West and Central African convention on environmental cooperation;EA = East African convention on environmental protection; RS = Red Sea and Gulf of Aden convention on conservation; C = Caribbean convention onenvironmental protection; SEP = South-East Pacific convention on environmental protection; SP = South Pacific convention on environmental protection;K = Kuwait convention on environmental cooperation.Other Regional Agreements: AFC = African conservation convention; HW = African hazardous waste convention; EC = European conservation convention;LR = transboundary air pollution convention; EIA = environmental impact assessment convention; AMC = Amazonian cooperation treaty;ASC = ASEAN conservation agreement; SPC = South Pacific conservation convention.Some small countries-signatories or contracting parties to the conventions and protocols listed-are not included in this table.For formal titles of the conventions and protocols listed, and for additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.World Resources 1992-93361

25 Policies and InstitutionsTable 25.3 Sources of Environmental and Natural ResourceSources of National Environmental Information (a)NationalTropicalTropicalState of the Environmental Country Forest/ Biological National Environmental ForestryINFOTERRA Environment Statistical Environmental Biodiversity Diversity Conservation Action ActionMember Report Compendium Profile Assessment Profile Strategy Plan PlanAFRICAAlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepChadComorosCongoCote d'lvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambia, TheGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSudanSwazilandTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZaireZambiaZimbabweYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesNoYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYes1990IP19871987IP199019881988,1990198519851980, 1982198119811980198019811980198319821980198219801979, 1981198019801981, 19871980197919891980198019821981198219821988,1989198919881989 {d}IP1988(d}1987IP19891988IP19881991 {b}198919901991 {b}1991 {b}19901988 {c}1988 (c)1991 Ib)1988{cj1988, 1991 {b}19881991 {b}19881988{c)19901990IPIPIPIP1984IP19881990IPIPIP19901980IPIP19851987IPIPIPIP19911988IP19911991IPFSRIPTFAP 1989FSRIPFSRIPFSRIPFSRIPFSRIPFSRIPFSRIPFSRIPFSR1988TFAP1988FSRIPFSR 1987/TFAP IPFSRIPFSRIPFSRIPFSR 1990FSRIPFSRIPFSRIPFSRIPTFAP 1990FSR 1990FSR 1986TFAP 1989FSRIPTFAP 1990FSRIPFSRIPNORTH & CENTRAL AMERICABarbadosBahamasBelizeCanadaCosta RicaCubaDominican RepEl SalvadorGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaSt. LuciaTrinidad and TobagoUnited StatesSOUTH AMERICAYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesNoYes1986, IP1988IPIP19911989, 1990,1991198619851983, 199019821984198219811985198419851982198719811980199119881988198819881988IPIP19861990IPIPIP1987IPIPIPIPIPIPTFAP 1989TFAP 1990TFAP 1991TFAP 1990TFAP 1991FSRIPTFAP 1988TFAP 1990TFAP 1991FSRIPTFAP 1991FSRIPArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorGuyanaParaguayPeruUruguayYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesIP19841985IP19851985198419861990199019871982198519861988198919881988198819881988IPIPIPTFAP 1988TFAP 1989FSRIPTFAP 1989TFAP 1991TFAP 1990TFAP 1988VenezuelaYesIPFSRIP362World Resources 1992-93

Policies and Institutions 25Information, 1991 Table 25.3ASIAAfghanistanBahrainBangladeshBhutanCambodiaChinaCyprusHong KongIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic RepIraqIsraelJapanJordanKorea, Dem People's RepKorea, RepKuwaitLao People's Dem RepLebanonMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmarNepalOmanPakistanPhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSri LankaSyrian Arab RepThailandTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamYemenEUROPEAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreece(Arab Rep)(People's Dem Rep)(Fed Rep)(Dem Rep)HungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolancIPortugalRomaniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomYugoslaviaUSSRINFOTERRAMemberNoYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNationalState of theEnvironmentReport1988IP1987, 198919881985199019881991IP198819871990IPIP198619861987198919901991IPIP19891988, 1989197919821988, IP19901989,199019901983199019861985198919881989, 19901989, 19901989197719841989199019871988EnvironmentalStatisticalCompendium19881983198019841979198519891990198719891989198119871987,1989198719881987199019891985Sources of National Environmental Information {a}CountryEnvironmentalProfile198019891980198719791982197919811986, 1988198019881988198119871982TropicalForest/BiodiversityAssessment1990IP198719891988BiologicalDiversityProfile1989198819891991 (c)NationalConservationStrategy1987IPIPIPIP1987IP1986IP1988IP1985IPNDIPIPIP1983,1990IPEnvironmentalActionPlanIP1991IPTropicalForestryActionPlanMPFD IPMPFD IPTFAP IPTFAP 1990TFAP 1990TFAP 1991MPFD 1988MPFD IPMPFD 1990MPFD 1989MPFD IPFSRIPOCEANIAAustraliaFijiNew ZealandPapua New GuineaSamoaSolomon IslandsVanuatuSources:Notes:YesYesYesYesYesNoYes1987, 198819881986198519881988IP1985IPFSR 1990/TFAP IPWorld Resources Institute, International Institute for Environment and Development, lUCN-The World Conservation Union, U.S. Agency for International Development,World Conservation Monitoring Centre, and the United Nations Environment Programme.a. Publication date of most recent edition; multiple dates indicate different reports.b. Accompanied with poster maps.c. draft.d. Natural Resource Management Study.INFOTERRA: member of INFOTERRA, the global environmental information system; FSR = Forestry Sector Review; TFAP = Tropical Forestry Action Plan;MPFD = Master Plan for Forestry Development; IP = in preparation; ND = published, no date.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.TFAP 1990FSRIPWorld Resources 1992-93363

25 Policies and InstitutionsTable 25.4 Sources of Published Global and RegionalEnvironmental Information, 1991World:Lester R. Brown, etal., State of the World 1992M.W. Norton, New York,1992). {a}*Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS), Global Freshwater Quality:A First Assessment (World Health Organization and United NationsEnvironment Programme, Oxford, 1989).lUCN-the World Conservation Union, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP), and World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Caring forthe Earth: A Strategy for Sustainability (\UCN, UNEP, and WWF, Gland,Switzerland, 1991).United Nations, World Population Prospects 1990 (Population Division,United Nations, New York, 1991).United Nations, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs(DIESA), Prospects of World Urbanization 1988 (United Nations, NewYork, 1989).United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and United NationsChildren's Fund (UNICEF), The State of the Environment 1990: Childrenand the Environment (UNEP and UNICEF, Nairobi and New York, 1990).United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), The State of the World's Children1991 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991). {a}United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Human DevelopmentReport 1991 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991). {a}United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Environmental Data Report(Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1991). {b}United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), State of the Environment:1972-1992{UNEP, Nairobi, 1992).*United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), The State of theEnvironment 1990 (UNEP, Nairobi, 1990). {a}United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), The World Environment1972-82: A Report (UNEP, Nairobi, 1982).The World Bank, World Development Report (Oxford University, New York,1991). {a}World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future(Oxford University Press, New York, 1987).World Conservation Monitoring Centre (WCMC), Global Biodiversity 1992;The Status of the Earth's Living Resources (WCMC, Cambridge, 1992).World Health Organization, World Health Statistics Annual (WHO, Geneva,1990). {a}World Resources Institute, in collaboration with the United NationsEnvironment Programme and the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, World Resources 1992-93 (Oxford University Press, NewYork, 1992). {b}All Regions:United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Regional Seas ProgrammeStudiesand Reports (UNEP, Nairobi). Regional series include West andCentral Africa, Eastern Africa, Wider Caribbean, Mediterranean, KuwaitAction Plan, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, East Asian Seas, South AsianSeas, South East Pacific, South Pacific, and South West Atlantic Regions.Africa:Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO), NaturalResources and the Human Environment for Food and Agriculture in Africa(FAO, Rome, 1986).lUCN-the World Conservation Union, Biodiversity in Sub-Saharan Africa andIts Islands: Conservation, Management and Sustainable Use (IUCN,Gland, Switzerland, 1990).lUCN-the World Conservation Union, IUCN Sahel Studies, 1989 (IUCN, Gland,Switzerland. 1989).L.O. Lewis and L. Berry, African Environments and Resources (Unwin Hyman,Boston, 1988).The World Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Sustainable Growth (WorldBank, Washington, D.C., 1989).Latin America:Eric Cardich, ed., Conservando el Patrimonio Natural de la Region Neotropical(IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 1986).Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Natural Resources in Latin America (IDB,Washington, D.C., 1983).Latin American and Caribbean Commission on Development and Environment, OurOwnAgenda(\DB and UNEP, Washington, D.C., 1990).Jeffrey Leonard, Natural Resources and Economic Development in CentralAmerica: A Regional Environmental Profile (Transaction Books, Oxford, 1987).Jorge Morello, Perfil Ecologico de Sudamerica (Instituto de CooperacionIberoamericana, Barcelona, 1984).United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean(UNECLAC), Sustainable Development: Changing Production Patterns, SocialEquity and the Environment(UNECLAC, Chile, 1991).Asia and Oceania:Asian Development Bank (ADB), Economic Policies for Sustainable Development(ADB, Manila, 1990).Mark N. Collins, Jeffrey A. Sayer, Timothy C. Whitmore, The Conservation Atlas ofTropical Forests: Asia and the Pacific (IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 1991).A.L. Dahl and L.L. Baumgart, The State of the Environment in the South Pacific(UNEP, Geneva, 1983).United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(UNESCAP), State of the Environment in Asia and the Pacific 1990,(UNESCAP, Bangkok, 1990).Europe, North America, and Other Developed Countries:Commission of the European Communities (CEC), The State of the Environment inthe European Community 1989 (CEC, Luxembourg, 1990).DocTer Institute for Environmental Studies, Milan, European EnvironmentalYearbook 1991 (DocTer International U.K., London, 1991). {a}European Community, The European Community and the Environment (EuropeanCommunity, Luxembourg, 1987).Eurostat, Environment Statistics 1989 (Eurostat, Luxembourg, 1990).Stanley P. Johnson and Guy Corcelle, The Environmental Policy of the EuropeanCommunities (Graham and Trotman/Kluwer, London, 1989).Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), EnvironmentalIndicators(OECD, Paris, 1991).Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), OECDEnvironmental Data Compendium 1991 (OECD, Paris, 1991).Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), The State ofthe Environment 1991 (OECD, Paris, 1991).United Nations Statistical Commission and United Nations Economic Commissionfor Europe, Environment Statistics in Europe and North America: AnExperimental Compendium {United Nations, New York, 1988).Source:Notes:Compiled by World Resources Institute.* = forthcoming; {a} = annual series; {b} = biennial series.For additional information, see Sources and Technical Notes.World Resources 1992-93364

Policies and Institutions 25Sources and Technical NotesTable 25.1 Participation inMajor Global Conventions—Wildlife,Habitat, and Oceans, 1991Sources: United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), UNEP Governing Council,Register of International Treaties and OtherAgreements in the Field of the Environment(UNEP, Nairobi, May 1991); EnvironmentalLaw Information System of the World ConservationUnion (IUCN-the World ConservationUnion) Environmental Law Centre,unpublished data (IUCN-the World ConservationUnion, Bonn, August 1991).A country becomes a signatory of a treatywhen a person given authority by the nationalgovernment signs it. Unless otherwiseprovided in the treaty, a signatory isunder no duty to perform the obligationsstipulated before the treaty comes intoforce for the country. The authorized signatureindicates a commitment to undertakedomestic action to ratify, accept, approve,or accede to the treaty. A country is a contractingparty when the treaty comes intoforce with respect to the country. Typically,this occurs when the country has ratifiedthe treaty or otherwise adopted the provisionsof the treaty as national law and whena prescribed number of countries indicatesconsent to be bound by the treaty and registerinstruments of ratification, acceptance,approval, or accession with the treaty's depositary(which may be a national government,a United Nations organization, oranother international organization; sometreaties have multiple depositaries).The complete titles of the conventionsand treaties summarized in Table 25.1, andtheir places and dates of adoption, are asfollows:• Antarctic treaty and convention: The AntarcticTreaty (Washington, D.C., 1959) is to ensurethat Antarctica is used for peacefulpurposes, for international cooperation inscientific research, and that Antarctica doesnot become the scene or object of internationaldiscord. The Convention on the Conservationof Antarctic Marine LivingResources (Canberra, 1980) is to safeguardthe environment and protect the integrityof the ecosystem of the seas surroundingAntarctica, and to conserve Antarctic marineliving resources.• Wetlands (Ramsar): The Convention on Wetlandsof International Importance Especiallyas Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar, Iran,1971) is to stem the progressive encroachmenton and loss of wetlands now and inthe future, recognizing the fundamentalecological functions of wetlands and theireconomic, cultural, scientific, and recreationalvalue, by establishing a List of Wetlandsof International Importance, andproviding that parties will establish wetlandnature reserves and consider their internationalresponsibilities for migratorywaterfowl.• World heritage: The Convention Concerningthe Protection of the World Cultural andNatural Heritage (Paris, 1972) establishes asystem of collective protection of the culturaland natural heritage sites of outstandinguniversal value, organized on a permanentbasis and in accordance with modernscientific methods.• Endangered species (CITES): The Conventionon International Trade in Endangered Speciesof Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES)(Washington, D.C., 1973) protects endangeredspecies from overexploitation by controllingtrade in live or dead animals and inanimal parts through a system of permits.• Migratory species: The Convention on theConservation of Migratory Species of WildAnimals (Bonn, 1979) protects wild animalspecies that migrate across internationalborders, by promoting international agreements.• Ocean dumping: The Convention on the Preventionof Marine Pollution by Dumping ofWastes and Other Matter (London, MexicoCity, Moscow, Washington, D.C., 1972) controlspollution of the seas by prohibitingthe dumping of certain materials and regulatingocean disposal of others, encouragingregional agreements, and establishing amechanism for assessing liability and settlingdisputes.• Ship pollution (MARPOL): The Protocol of1978 Relating to the International Conventionfor the Prevention of Pollution fromShips, 1973 (London, 1978) is a modificationof the 1973 convention to eliminate internationalpollution by oil and other harmfulsubstances and to minimize accidentaldischarge of such substances.• Lam of the sea: The United Nations Conventionon the Law of the Sea (Montego Bay,Jamaica, 1982) establishes a comprehensivelegal regime for the seas and oceans, establishesrules for environmental standardsand enforcement provisions, and developsinternational rules and national legislationto prevent and control marine pollution.The United Nations Convention on theLaw of the Sea has not yet entered intoforce. Sixty ratifications are required anduntil now only 43 countries have ratified it.The European Community has signed theConvention on the Conservation of MigratorySpecies of Wild Animals and theUnited Nations Convention on the Law ofthe Sea.Information on the number of NaturalWorld Heritage Sites and Wetlands of InternationalImportance is contained in Chapter20, "Wildlife and Habitat," Table 20.1.For information on treaty terms, refer to thesources.Table 25.2 Participation inMajor Global Conventions—Atmosphere, HazardousSubstances, and RegionalAgreements, 1991Sources: United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), UNEP Governing Council,Register of International Treaties and OtherAgreements in the Field of the Environment(UNEP, Nairobi, May 1991); UNEP, Statusof Regional Agreements Negotiated in theFramework of the Regional Seas Programme,Rev. 3 (UNEP, Nairobi, August 1991); EnvironmentalLaw Information System of theWorld Conservation Union (IUCN) EnvironmentalLaw Centre, unpublished data(IUCN, Bonn, August 1991).See Technical Note for Table 25.1 for generalinformation on the meaning of conventions,signing, and ratification.The complete titles of the conventionsand treaties summarized in Table 25.2, andplaces and dates of adoption, follow:• Nuclear test ban: The Treaty Banning NuclearWeapon Tests in the Atmosphere, inOuter Space, and Under Water (Moscow,1963) prohibits atmospheric and underwaternuclear weapons tests and other nuclearexplosions and prohibits tests in any otherenvironment if radioactive debris would bepresent outside the territory of the countryconducting the test.• Ozone layer: The Vienna Convention for theProtection of the Ozone Layer (Vienna,1985) is to protect human health and the environmentby conducting research onozone layer modification and its effects andon alternative substances and technologies,monitoring the ozone layer, and takingmeasures to control activities that produceadverse effects.• CFC control: The Protocol on SubstancesThat Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal,1987) requires nations to cut consumptionof five chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) andthree halons by 20 percent of their 1986level by 1994 and by 50 percent of their1986 level by 1999, with allowances for increasesin consumption by developingcountries.• Biological and toxin weapons: The Conventionon the Prohibition of the Development,Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological(Biological) and Toxin Weapons, and onTheir Destruction (London, Moscow, Washington,D.C., 1972) prohibits acquisitionand retention of biological agents and toxinsthat are not justified for peaceful purposesand of the means of delivering themfor hostile purposes or armed conflict.• Nuclear accident notification: The Conventionon Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident(Vienna, 1986) provides relevant informationabout nuclear accidents as early as possiblein order that transboundary radiologicalconsequences can be minimized.• Nuclear accident assistance: The Conventionon Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accidentor Radiological Emergency (Vienna,1986) facilitates the prompt provision of assistancein the event of a nuclear accidentor radiological emergency.• Hazardous waste movement: The Basel Conventionon the Control of TransboundaryMovements of Hazardous Wastes and theirDisposal (Basel, 1989) sets up obligations toreduce transboundary movement ofwastes; to minimize the amount and toxicityof hazardous wastes generated and toWorld Resources 1982-93365

25 Policies and Institutionsensure their environmentally sound management;and to assist developing countriesin environmentally sound management ofhazardous wastes.• The UNEP Regional Seas Programme, initiatedby UNEP in 1974, has developed regionalaction plans for controlling marinepollution and managing marine and coastalresources. The action plans usually includeregional environmental assessments, environmentalmanagement, environmental legislation,institutional arrangements, andfinancial arrangements. The regional conventionsand associated protocols that are apart of these action plans are included inthe table and they address region-specificmarine-related environmental issues.Some of the symbols used to indicate participationin a Regional Sea convention denoteseveral related conventions and protocols.An asterisk (*) follows the conventionabbreviation if a country has signed, butnot ratified the regional convention. A plus(+) sign follows the convention abbreviationif a country has signed or ratified atleast two of the associated protocols to theregional convention. The abbreviations andfull titles of Regional Seas conventions,dates of adoption, and associated protocolsmentioned in the table are listed below.I M: Convention for the Protection of theMediterranean Sea against Pollution (1976).Protocol for the Prevention of Pollution ofthe Mediterranean Sea by Dumping fromShips and Aircraft (1976). Protocol ConcerningCo-operation in Combating Pollution ofthe Mediterranean Sea by Oil and OtherHarmful Substances in Cases of Emergency(1976). Protocol for the Protection of theMediterranean Sea against Pollution fromLand-based Sources (1980). Protocol ConcerningMediterranean Specially ProtectedAreas (1982).• WCA: Convention for Co-operation in theProtection and Development of the Marineand Coastal Environment of the West andCentral African Region (1981). ProtocolConcerning Co-operation in Combating Pollutionin Cases of Emergency (1981).• EA: Convention for the Protection, Managementand Development of the Marine andCoastal Environment of the Eastern AfricanRegion (1985). Protocol Concerning ProtectedAreas and Wild Fauna and Flora in theEastern African Region (1985). ProtocolConcerning Co-operation in Combating MarinePollution in Cases of Emergency in theEastern African Region (1985).• RS: Regional Convention for the Conservationof the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Environment(1982). Protocol ConcerningRegional Co-operation in Combating Pollutionby Oil and Other Harmful Substancesin Cases of Emergency (1982).B C: Convention for the Protection and Developmentof the Marine Environment of theWider Caribbean Region (1983). ProtocolConcerning Co-operation in Combating OilSpills in the Wider Caribbean Region (1983).Protocol Concerning Specially ProtectedAreas and Wildlife to the Convention forthe Protection and Development of the MarineEnvironment of the Wider CaribbeanRegion (1990).366World Resources 1992-93• SEP; Convention for the Protection of theMarine Environment and Coastal Area ofthe South-East Pacific (1981). Agreement onRegional Co-operation in Combating Pollutionof the South-East Pacific by Hydrocarbonsor Other Harmful Substances in Casesof Emergency (1981). Supplementary Protocolto the Agreement on Regional Co-operationin Combating Pollution of the South-East Pacific by Hydrocarbons or OtherHarmful Substances in Cases of Emergency(1983). Protocol for the Protection of theSouth-East Pacific Against Pollution fromLand-Based Sources (1983). Protocol for theConservation and Management of ProtectedMarine and Coastal Areas of the South-East Pacific Against Radioactive Contamination(1989).• SP: Convention for the Protection of theNatural Resources and Environment of theSouth Pacific Region (1986). Protocol ConcerningCo-operation in Combating PollutionEmergencies in the South PacificRegion (1986). Protocol for the Preventionof Pollution of the South Pacific Region byDumping (1986).• K: Kuwait Regional Convention for Co-operationon the Protection of the Marine Environmentfrom Pollution (1978). ProtocolConcerning Regional Co-operation in CombatingPollution by Oil and Other HarmfulSubstances in Cases of Emergency (1978).Protocol concerning Marine Pollution resultingfrom Exploration and Exploitationof the Continental Shelf (1989). Protocol forthe Protection of the Marine Environmentagainst Pollution from Land-Based Sources(1990).Other regional agreements include a varietyof agreements addressing region-specificenvironmental issues. The abbreviationsand full titles of the agreements, and theirdate and place of adoption, are listedbelow.• AFC: African Convention on the Conservationof Nature and Natural Resources (Algiers,1968).• HW: Bamako Convention on the Ban of theImport into Africa and the Control of TransboundaryMovements of Hazardous WastesWithin Africa (1991).• EC: Convention on the Conservation of EuropeanWildlife and Natural Habitats(Bern, 1979)• LR: Convention on Long-Range TransboundaryAir Pollution (Geneva, 1979); Protocolto the 1979 Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution onLong-Term Financing of the Co-operativeProgramme for Monitoring and Evaluationof the Long-Range Transmission of Air Pollutantsin Europe (EMEP) (Geneva, 1984);Protocol to the 1979 Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on theReduction of Sulphur Emissions or TheirTransboundary Fluxes by at Least 30 Percent(Helsinki, 1985); Protocol to the 1979Convention on Long-Range TransboundaryAir Pollution Concerning the Control ofEmissions of Nitrogen or their TransboundaryFluxes (Sofia, 1988).B EM; Convention on Environmental ImpactAssessment in a Transboundary Context(Espoo, Finland, 1991).• AMC: Treaty for Amazonian Cooperation(Brasilia, 1978).• ASC: ASEAN Agreement on the Conservationof Nature and Natural Resources(Kuala Lumpur, 1985).B SPC: Convention on Conservation of Naturein the South Pacific (Apia, WesternSamoa, 1976).The Convention on the Control of TransboundaryMovements of HazardousWastes and Their Disposal has not yet enteredinto force. This will happen when 20countries have ratified it. The Vienna Conventionfor the Protection of the OzoneLayer entered into force on September 22,1988, after the required 20 countries ratifiedit. The Protocol on Substances That Depletethe Ozone Layer entered into force January1,1989, when the requirement of ratificationby at least 11 countries, accounting forat least two thirds of 1986 estimated worldchlorofluorocarbon consumption, had beenmet.The European Community has signed theVienna Convention for the Protection of theOzone Layer and the Protocol on SubstancesThat Deplete the Ozone Layer. Ithas also signed conventions on three regionalseas with associated protocols, onthe conservation of wildlife, on environmentalimpact assessments, and on longrangetransboundary air pollution.The Eastern African and South Pacific RegionalSeas conventions and their protocolshave not yet entered into force. For informationon treaty terms, refer to the sources.Table 25.3 Sources ofEnvironmental and NaturalResource Information, 1991Source: Compiled by the World ResourcesInstitute.INFOTERRA, the global environmentalinformation system, is a network of nationalinformation centers established bythe United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) for the exchange of environmentalinformation. Each membercountry compiles a register of institutionswilling to share expertise in environmentallyrelated areas, such as atmosphere andclimate, energy, food and agriculture, plantand animal wildlife, and pollution. An internationaldirectory is developed from the nationalregisters; the national offices use thedirectory to select experts who can answerthe queries. In 1990, the network answeredmore than 18,000 queries, over half ofwhich came from developing countries.National State of the Environment Reportsare published by government agencies, multilateralorganizations, universities, andnongovernmental organizations. They analyzethe condition and management of acountry's natural resources and documentits progress or failure in sustaining its naturalresource base. UNEP supports the developmentof state-of-the-environment reportsin several countries. Their goal is to help developingcountries improve their knowledgeof their environment and thus formulatemore environmentally sound nationalstrategies. UNEP provides consultants on a

Policies and Institutions 25short-term basis and helps prepare andpublish the final report.Environmental Statistical Compendium, usuallyprepared by a government agency, reportsnational environmental statisticaldata primarily through graphs and tables,and contains little analysis.Country Environmental Profiles are sponsoredby the United States Agency for InternationalDevelopment (U.S. AID). Theseprofiles assess a country's natural resourcepotential in relation to economic growthand development. The environmental profileprogram helps to establish an informationbase that can be used in planning andpolicy development.Tropical Forest/Biodiversity Assessments arealso sponsored by U.S. AID. These assessmentsprovide a background on tropicalforest and biodiversity conservation needsin each developing country and include informationon laws and institutions affectingbiological resources, the status and managementof protected areas, the status and protectionof endangered species, conservationefforts outside protected areas, major issuesin tropical forest and biological diversityconservation, and recommendations andproposed activities.Biological Diversity Profiles are publishedby the Habitats Data Unit of the World ConservationMonitoring Centre (WCMC) andthe Tropical Forest Programme of theWorld Conservation Union (IUCN) in supportof the conservation of biological diversity.The profiles provide basic backgroundon species diversity, major ecosystems andhabitat types, protected area systems, andlegislative and administrative support; theyidentify the status of sites of critical importancefor biological diversity and ecosystemconservation; and they provide a concise reporton the values, threats, and conservationneeds of these sites for decisionmakersand development agencies.National Conservation Strategy (NCS) reportsinvolve the consideration of currentand future needs and aspirations of the people,the institutional capacities of the country,the prevailing technical conditions, andthe status of its natural resources. On thebasis of review, analysis, and assignment ofpriorities, an NCS seeks to define the bestpossible allocation of human and financialresources to achieve the goals of sustainabledevelopment. Host governments bearthe main responsibility for implementingNCSs and must take the lead in their preparation.For more information on the statusof National Conservation Strategies, seepast issues of the IUCN Bulletin Supplement.Environmental Action Plans (EAP) aresponsored by the World Bank and preparedby Bank staff and consultants in close collaborationwith governments, various internationalorganizations, NGOs, and otherdonors. These plans are detailed studiesthat culminate in the implementation of environmentalprojects and policies. SomeEAPs provide a framework for integratingenvironmental considerations into anation's overall economic and social developmentprograms. The EAPs also make recommendationsfor specific actions, outliningthe environmental policies, investmentstrategies, legislation, and institutional arrangementsrequired.Tropical Forestry Action Plan (TFAP) is aglobal strategy developed by the Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO), the United Nations DevelopmentProgram, the World Bank, and theWorld Resources Institute, with the cooperationof some 40 bilateral donors, internationalorganizations and NGOs. It providesa framework for concerted national and internationalaction to manage, protect, andrestore forest resources in the tropics. TFAPexercises are developed by individual countrieswith the assistance of the internationalcommunity and must produce informed decisionsand action programs with explicitnational targets on policies and practices tohalt deforestation, the contribution of forestresources to sustainable economic developmentthrough afforestation and forest management,the conservation of forestresources, and the integration of forestrelatedissues in the priorities of other sectors.The planning phase usually involves acomprehensive forestry sector review (FSR)leading to the formulation of a nationalTFAP, which includes a long-term strategy,mid-term programs, and immediate projects.The Master Plans for Forestry Development(MPFD) are linked to the TFAPeffort but are carried out by the Asian DevelopmentBank (ADB) for its membercountries (Bhutan, China, Laos, Nepal, Pakistan,the Philippines, and Thailand).MPFDs aim at long-term development ofthe forestry sector, including a five-yearplan and annual programs and projects forimplementation. The goal is to increase institutionalcapacity in these countries, coordinatedonor assistance, and increasefunding for forestry.Table 25.4 Sources ofPublished Global and RegionalEnvironmental Information, 1991Source: Compiled by the World ResourcesInstitute.The bibliography of Sources of PublishedGlobal and Regional Environmental Informationincludes general statistical and analyticalpublications. It includes neitherspecialized reports nor journal articles.World Resources 1992-93367

IndexA^^boriortion, 256-57Acid precipitation, 7,17,20,25,104,166,194,197-98Acids, 162Adirondack regional park, 137Afghanistan, 11Africasee also specific countriesAIDS/HIV infection, 90agricultural technology, 36child mortality, 78cholera epidemics, 81contraceptive use, 77deforestation, 118,169education in, 31energy production, consumption,and sources, 37,144,148,149fertility rates, 76,77food production and supplies, 20,93-96,97,163freshwater, 159infant mortality, 78land tenure rerform, 121-22mangrove losses, 178nongovernmental organizations,220-21population growth, 76,77,93,94,96,163precipitation, 160protected areas, 136regional trade initiatives, 34Rift Valley, 132Sahel, 160Social Dimensions of AdjustmentProject, 33social expenditures, 31soil degradation, 112,114,115,116species diversity, 130structural adjustment and developmentprograms, 33water shortages, 163AfricanAssociation for Literacy and AdultCommunication, 230Center for Technology Studies, 231Development Bank, 33Development Foundation, 217Women's Development and CommunicationsNetwork, 230Agarwal, Anil, 209Agency for International Development(U.S.), 98,123,156Agriculturesee also Alternative agriculture;Cropland; Crops; Food productionand air pollution, 104,348-49biodiversity losses, 104,139biotechnology applications, 26central government expenditures,by country, 240-41chemical inputs, 24,35,42,97,103-04,274-75and coastal water degradation, 185commodity prices, 97-98communal farms, 33conventional practices, 100-04definition, 99-100in ecologically sensitive areas, 30economics, 97-98,99,107-08employment in, 47,49,108energy consumption/intensity,149,151,318-19energy efficiency in, 151environmental costs of, 24,36,42,93,96-97,101-05European policy and practices, 65,105,108extensive, 100freshwater withdrawals, 93,97,328-29Green Revolution, 97,132gross domestic product, 236-37harvesters, 274-75in industrial countries, 24,98-108intensive, 100irrigation, 47,93,97,98,159,274-75labor force, by country, 264-65land conservation in, 10,106and landscape degradation, 104management agreements, 106monocultures, 10,36,100,102,139NGO role in, 226off-farm impacts, 103-04on-farm impacts, 101-03organic farming, 24,36,99,107pest control, 20,124population and, 94,96"polluter pays" principle appliedto, 10,24,105price distortions, 34,35,105,108production index, by country, 272-73raised-bed gardening, 124in rapidly industrializing countries,42,47reforms needed, 24-25,105-07,108,121-22regulations, 106-07runoff, 42,102-04,139,170-71,175,176rural development policies, 5,8,10slash-and-burn, 48,121,124small-scale, 108,122,124soil degradation and, 6,10,24,96-97,101,104,114,115,290-91soil improvement, 124subsidies, 10,24,35,38,47,97,98,104,105-06,107,135,139sustainable practices, 6,10,98,101,163taxes, fees, and tax incentives, 106technology development, 20,26,36tillage practices, 101,102tractors, 274-75trade, 10,24,38,98,105traditional techniques, 36,100U.S. farm law, 104-05wet rice, 104,348-49water availability for, 163water pollution from, 6,10,24,42,65,168-69,170-71,185World Bank lending, 98at world heritage sites, 302-03world production, 3Agroecological zoning, 46Agroforestry, 33,36,122,124Aid, see Development assistance;Food aidAIDS, 79,90Air pollutionsee also specific pollutantsacid deposition from, 25,197-98from agriculture, 104in Central Europe, 57,61-64and coastal water degradation, 186corporate responsibility movement,202-03and crop yields, 42emission trends, 199,201energy conservation and, 202forest product losses to, 199hazardous, 42,50health effects, 88indoor, 88,195industrial, 88and mortality, 62from motor vehicles, 42,62-65,203-04from Persian Gulf War, 11regional, 197-201responses to, 199,200smog, 23,50,57,62,64,194-96smokestack height and, 61-62solutions to, 201-04sources, 88,148standards and incentives forcleanup, 201stationary sources, 201-02target reductions, 67technology and, 20,201-02urban, 7,194-97Air quality, 42,43,51Air transport, 266-67Airports, 266-67Albania, 61,63,64,65,146Alcohol (ethanol), 88Aldehydes, 63,195Algal toxins, 177Algeria, 148,163Alternative agricultureagroforestry, 33,36,122,124barriers to, 93,104-05conventional agriculture contrastedwith, 100-01crop-livestock operations, 100,102-03,105,108,169crop rotations, 100-04,107-08,163,170defined, 99,100inputs, 100integrated pest management, 47,48,100,103,124intercropping, 36,102,124models, 101,107-08organic recycling, 36profitability, 24,97-98,100,107-08reforms supporting, 105-07runoff control, 170-71small-scale irrigation, 36soil nutrition, 100,102-03soil erosion, 107,108Page numbers in italics refer to tables or figures.This index does not include page numbers for specific country data shown in Part TV tables. See Table of Contents for list of table titles. Most tables includedata for 146 countries.World Resources 1992-93369

Indextillage practices, 36,100,101,102,170water management, 163weed control, 100yields, 100,101,107Aluminum, 320Amazon Basinagroforestry project, 124area, 166biological diversity, 46conservation, 46deforestation, 46,51,119,121hydroelectric projects, 123precipitation, 160tribal people, 123-25,135,230-31American Fisheries Society, 132Ammonia, 61,65,104,153Amphibians, threatened species, 304-05Amu Darya, 166,168-69Angola, 11,96Antarctic Treaty and Convention, 358-39Anticancer drugs, 133Aquacultureand mangrove forest losses, 49,135-36,180production, 96,181,340A1sewage used in, 169Aquino, Corazon, 220Arabian orynx, 128Aral Sea, 166,168-69Arfak Mountains, 138Argentina, 82,123,130,148Arsenic, 61,177Ascension, 131Asiasee also specific countrieschild mortality, 78deforestation, 118energy production and consumption,144energy reserves, 148,149fertility rates, 77food production, 96freshwater, 160infant mortality, 78malnutrition in, 84mangrove losses, 178nongovernmental organizations,218,220population growth, 76,77protected areas, 136rapidly industrializing countries, 41soil degradation, 112,114,116Asian Development Bank, 98Asian NGO Coalition for Agrarian Reformand Rural Development, 224,230Association of African Women for Researchand Development, 230Association of Southeast Asian Nations,53Asthma, 42Atlantic Ocean, 131,338-39Atmospheresee also Air pollutionconventions, 8,152-53,199,360-63levels of greenhouse and ozone-depletinggases, 205,350Australiaagriculture, 105biodiversity, 131energy production, 145Great Barrier Reef Marine Park,137,139land conservation, 106precipitation, 160soil degradation, 102,112,115water conservation, 106Austria, 64,65,66,105,106,107,145Aylwin, Patricio, 50Azerbaijan, 150Azov Sea, 185,186"altic Marine Environment ProtectionCommission, 68Baltic Sea, 65,68,175,176,181,184,186Bangladeshaquaculture, 169children's health, 34,83-84education, 31energy sources, 37,144,148floods, 160health services, 32nongovernment organizations, 33,218,224poverty alleviation, 33Bank for European Reconstructionand Development, 68Bauxite, 322-23Bavaria, 102,103-04Belgium, 64,65,161Belize, 140Benin, 223Bhutan, 140Bicycle industry, 54Bioaccumulation of toxic substances,165,168,177Biodiversity losses, 4assessment, 362-63causes, 96,129-30,134-36,138conservation and, 10,54,136-38,140convention, 10,134crops, 104,132-33deforestation and, 118,120,125,127demand reduction and, 141ecosystem, 128estimation, 128,139genetic, 10,47,54,128,132-33global strategy, 130,133-34,138-39habitat fragmentation, 118high-level areas, 46,130,132-33human cultural, 128ignorance about species and ecosystems,134-35local aspects, 130national policies and, 130,138-41natural resource consumption and,134policies contributing to, 135,139population growth and, 96,134profile, 362-63resource consumption and, 134resource distribution inequitiesand, 135species, 127-28trade and, 135valuation of, 135,139Biogas, 195,223Biohydrometallurgy, 26Biomass energy, 36-37,144,148,155,195Bioparks, 137Bioregional management, 137Biosphere reserves, 137,138,298-99Biotechnology, 10,26Birdsspecies losses, 132losses to oil spills, 150threatened species, 129,132,304-05trade in, 27,300-01waterfowl populations, 163Birthsattended by trained personnel,254-55rates, 32,45,81,248-49BlackForest,160,197Black Sea, pollution, 65,176,182-83,185,186Blacks, poverty and illness amongchildren, 83,88Bolivia, 123,231Botanical gardens, 136-37,306-08Botswana, 30,80,81,96,129,133,135Brazil, 41air pollution, 88child mortality, 86cholera epidemic, 81contraceptive use, 77debt-for-nature swaps, 51,53deforestation, 46,47,51,119,121energy consumption and production,46,51,53,148,151energy efficiency, 157exports, 47,155family planning programs, 45income distribution, 79,81lead poisoning, 88literacy rates, 43nongovernment organizations, 219,220,227,231pollution control, 53population growth, 45poverty in, 45,46,86profile, 46transportation, 157Xingu River dam, 123Breastfeeding, 83,85Brown tree snake, 132Buffaloes and camels, 276-77Buffer zones, 137Bulgaria, 61,63,64,65,66,146Burkina Faso, 36,220,223,224,225Burundi, 129Byelorussia, 66, 64,66,107,177,186,320California, wind power, 22Cambodia, 11Canada, 19,101-02child mortality, 78Cree community property system,135energy sources, 145forestry initiative, 123infant mortality, 82lead pollution, 161marine pollution, 176,177population distribution, 177resource/material consumption,18,145species diversity, 130temperate rainforests, 131Canalization, 185Canary Islands, 131Cancer, 62,79,168,195Captive breeding, 128,132,136-37Carbon dioxide emissionsatmospheric levels, 2,5,21,350from cement manufacture, 350by country, 211deforestation and, 205-06industrial, 222,346-47from fossil fuel consumption, 151,163,205-06,350and global warming, 205from land-use change, 348-49natural sinks, 209projections, 5,149reduction strategies, 8,21,22,27,71,147,196,204sources, 5,7,21-22,23,25,149,200,348-50target limits, 210taxes on, 10,23worldwide, 5Carbon monoxide emissions, 196-97atmospheric levels, 196,350by country, 352health effects, 88,197indoor, 195reduction, 70,196,203and smog formation, 197sources, 61,62-63,65,70,104,149,196,352Carbon tetrachloride, 350Cardiovascular diseases, 62,79CARE, 217Caribbean Sea, 131Caspian Sea, 185Catholic church, grassroots organizations,220,225Catholic Relief Services, 217Cattle, 96,276-77Cement manufacture, 350Central Americasee also Latin America; specific countriesdeforestation, 118mangrove losses, 278nongovernmentalorganizations,220soil degradation, 222,114,116species diversity, 130Central Europeagriculture, 65auto emissions, 62-64atmospheric pollution, 11,57,61-64banking institution initiatives, 68cause of environmental problems,57-58,60coal belt, 57coal dependence, 61,67,70-71,143countries of, 58democratization, 57-58,59,66-67,143,146employment, 57energy policies, 60-61,66-69,71-72,143,144,145-46,151energy reserves, 248environmental damage, 57,60,61-66environmental protection options,66-67,70-72forest damage, 66government-to-government aidprograms, 68health prospects, 57,62-63industrial development, 58,60-61infrastructure projects, 68laws and regulations, environmental,72life expectancy, 62,63market forces management, 67-70motor vehicles, 69-70nature conservation opportunities,59nuclear energy, 71pollution control, 60smokestacks, 61-62soil damage, 66transboundary pollution, 66,68water pollution, 11,64-66,72Western partnerships with, 68Central government expenditures,240-42Cephalopods,339Cerealsconsumption, 94feed,105food aid, 94,278-80prices, 97production and yields, 94,272-73surpluses, 107trade, 105,278-79Cerebral palsy, 88Chad, 11,34,129Charcoal, 288-89Chemical companies, environmentalstrategies, 25Chernobyl nuclear accident, 13,71,78,145Chesapeake Bay, watershed management,184-89Chickens, 96,276-77370World Resources 1992-93

IndexChild mortality, 250-51see also Infant mortalitycauses of death, 78,82contraception and, 86,87and fertility, 85human development and, 85,86in industrialized countries, 81-82literacy and, 86,87per capita income and, 86in poor/developing countries, 30,81,82population growth and, 76,85poverty and, 86in rapidly industrializing countries,43,44,46,48,49,50,52by region, 78trends, 25,75in urban areas, 89water quality and, 86Children's healthsee also InfantsAIDS/HIV infection, 90availability of care, 19,87cholera, 81chronic or disabling conditions, 83,88deaths, 78,82-85diarrhea, 32,75-76,78,82-83,84,85,89,254-55diphtheria, 83drinking water safety and, 81,86environmental conditions and, 81-82,88immunization, 32,75,83,87,89,254-55improvement strategies, 19,85-87indoor air pollution, 195lead poisoning, 62,83,88malaria, 82,84measles, 82,83,84,85measures of, 85mental health disorders, 83,86,88neonatal and perinatal complications,78,82,83nutrition, 30,37,52,81,83,84-85,89,250-51oral rehydration therapy, 32,81,82-83,87,89,254-55pertussis, 82,83polio, 83pollution and, 42,57poverty and, 83,86respiratory infections, 42,78,82,83,84,88,89rubella, 83sanitation and, 81,86stunting, 86,250-52tetanus, 83tuberculosis, 83,88,89in urban areas, 89vaccine-preventable disease, 83-84wasting, 250-51women's role, 35,37,86-87Chile, 41deforestation, 47,51,123,131energy consumption, 51,53exports of primary products, 47human development, 80,81infant mortality, 45life expectancy, 45literacy rates, 43,45external debt, 123profile, 50species diversity, 130Chinaaquaculture, 169bicycle industry, 54CFC consumption, 152-53child mortality, 15energy consumption and production,15,148,149energy reserves, 149exports, 47,155fertility trends, 15,76freshwater, 159,163GNP, 14livestock populations, 96malnutrition in, 84population control program, 76primary school enrollment, 14,15Chlorine/chlorides, 66,162,167,172,350Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), 9,152-53,194,200,204,348-50,360-61Chloroquimr>e,84Cholera epidemics, 81,177Chromium, 183,190,322-23Chronic obstructive lung disease, 79Ciguatera, 177Citiessee also Urban areas and urbanizationair pollution from road transport,196coastal water pollution, 131,185one-million population, 264-65Climatesee also Global wanningfossil fuel use and, 2land area classified by, 281-82Mt. Pinatubo eruption and, 200rainfall/precipitation, 160,332-33stabilization, 9-10sustainable development and, 6treaty, 204CoalCentral European dependence on,61, 67,70-71,143,146consumption trends, 145,147,148,202conversion to natural gas, 71flue gas desulfurization, 70-71gasification, 65methane emissions from mining,348-49mining, 168pollution control options, 67,68-69,70-71,194,202pollution from, 57,61,65,146,148,168prices, 68-69production trends, 144,145,147reserves, 148,148washing, 67,70,194Coasts and coastal watersalgal blooms, 161,176,185area, by country, 336-37coordination of pollution control efforts,187economic valuation, 183habitat destruction, 131,175,176,177-78inland activities affecting, 187management case studies, 187-91maritime area, 336-37Mussel Watch program, 177nutrient discharges into, 175,176,184,185,186,338-39oil and gas reserves, 336-37pollution trends, 7,175,176,181-83,184population, 336-37upstream activities that affect, 185-86volume of goods loaded and unloadedin, 336-37vulnerability to pollution, 186-87Cobalt, 322-23Cocoa, 98Coffee, 98Collor de Mello, Fernando, 46,51Colombia, 31,81Colorado River, 166Columbia River, 187Commodity indexes, world, 97,242Commodity pricesagricultural, 24,97-98,105,108distortions, 97,105,108NGO negotiations, 226reforms, 108tropical timber, 122world, 242Communitieseducation role, 31health care role, 87participation in environmentaldecisionmaking, 134resource management by, 33,35Condoms, 256-58Conservation of natural resourcesaccess to resources and, 8bioregional management, 137biosphere reserves, 137buffer zones, 137Central European opportunities, 59custodial management, 136demand reduction strategies, 122,141and economic development, 4,27,47,51endowments, 140ex situ, 136external debt and, 135financing, 140,141global "hot spot" approach, 130,133-34human development and, 6local community involvement, 10,33,35,136national strategy, 362-63new techniques, 137-38population stabilization and, 35poverty alleviation and, 35reorientation of old strategies, 136-37reserve management, 138soils, 113species monitoring, 137-38Contraception, 6breastfeeding and, 85and child mortality, 86,87and fertility, 77and population, 32,45,76-78prevalence and availability, 32,256-57trends, 77ConventionsAntarctic, 358-39atmosphere, 8,152-53,199,360-61biodiversity, 10,134,140children's rights, 89,90driftnet fishing, 181endangered species, 133,301-02,358-59forest, 119,120hazardous substances, 360-61migratory species, 358-59ocean, 140,181,183,358-59participants in, 358-61regional agreements, 171-72,360-61transboundary pollution, 171-72,199wetlands, 140,358-59world heritage, 140,358-59Coordinadora de las OrganizacionesIndigenas de la Cuenca Amazonica,124-25Copper, 50,177,186,320,322-23Coral reefsbleaching, 131,178destruction, 6,177,183global distribution, 131Great Barrier Reef, 137,139pollution damage to, 139,176,177,183sedimentation of, 183,185,189species diversity and losses, 131,132Corn, 102,103,104Costa Ricaagriculture, 222-23drug company agreement on geneticrights, 10,54,137-38energy demand management, 151human development, 80,81nongovernmental organizations,222-23,231species monitoring in, 137-38C6te d'lvoire, 30,79Cotton, 102Council for Mutual Economic Assistance,58,146Cretinism, 85Croplandarea, 22, 95,101,262-63,274-75fallow management, 163fertilizer use, 274-75forestland conversion to, 3,23,115-16,168irrigated, 274-75per capita area, 96pesticide use, 274-75Cropssee also specific cropsareas of high biodiversity, 132-33genetic diversity, 132-33,135improvement programs, 124rotations, 101,103,163surpluses, 38,97,98,100,105yields, 42,47,94,95,104,117Crustaceans, 339-41Cuba, 82Czechoslovakiaenergy consumption, 61,146environmental disasters and damage,57,61,64environmental protection, 58,60,72forest defoliation, 66industrial infrastructure, 57infant mortality, 62life expectancy, 63modernization projects, 68nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65nuclear power, 71preserves (potential), 5.9sulfur dioxide emissions, 61,64transboundary sulfur pollution, 66water pollution trends, 65•#ams, 123environmental problems, 22,165,185,187number and hydropower potential,330-31opposition to, 221-22Data bases and clearinghousesearthquake relief, 229energy efficiency, 154UNCED information system, 219World Soils and Terrain DigitalDatabase, 112DDT, 103,177,186Debt, see External debtDebt for Child Development Program,38Debt-for-nature swaps, 38Amazon, 51input from indigenous peoples,124-25management of, 140mechanism, 123NGO role in, 226-27participants, 309Deere & Co., 202Defense expenditurescentral government, by country,240-41and human development, 8-9,37-38Deforestation, 5agriculture and, 23,121,168World Resources 1892-93371

Indexadd precipitation and, 197-98biodiversity losses, 46,125,131causes, 47,96,121,123,163and climate change, 10,118,125by country, 286-87development assistance and, 123economic effects, 131and external debt, 120,122-23and greenhouse gas emissions, 10,205-06health effects of, 84intervention initiatives, 47-48,51,119-20logging and, 51,118method for estimating, 119monitoring, 119in poor countries, 30in rapidly industrializing countries,47,51and runoff, 160,169soil degradation from, 47,48,49,96,114,115-16,118tax incentives, 35threat to native peoples, 44timber trade restrictions and, 122trends, 118-119tropical,46,47, 111, 118-19,127,128,131Demand management, 23,71-72,122,139,141,151Denmarkagricultural reform, 106-07animal manure controls, 107Association for International Cooperation,217energy intensities, 21,145forest defoliation, 66runoff control, 107threatened species, 129water quality, 161wind power, 22-23Desertification, 30,112Deserts, 23Developing countriessee also External debt; Poor countries;specific countriesair pollution, 88,195agricultural practices, 97causes of death, 78,79,82child mortality, 78,82child population, 81coastal habitat losses, 177contraceptive use, 77crop biodiversity, 132energy efficiency technology, 154-57energy production and use, 143,144,147-51energy reserves, 148,149fertility rates, 77food imports and exports, 95food production, 95-96forestry funding from industrialcountries, 123human development in, 8-9infant mortality, 78,81literacy rates, 43military/state security expenditures,8-9,11-12oil-exporting, 144,147oil-importing, 144,147,148population assistance programs, 76-77population growth, 75,76,77resource pricing, 8sewage treatment, 167-68tourism, 140trade barriers, 24wars and conflicts, 11water consumption, 160-61water pollution, 88-89,161-62,165Developmentsee also Economic development;Sustainable development at worldheritage sites, 302-03Development assistanceby country, 236-37for forestry, 120percentage of GNP, 236-37per capita, 236-37policies, 38reforms, 123Diarrheabreastfeeding and, 85child mortality, 75-76,79,82causes, 78,82,84,89oral rehydration therapy, 32,83,254-55shellfish poisoning, 177water pollution and, 162Diphtheria, 83Disease, see Health; and specific diseasesDoctors, availability by country, 252-53Dow Chemical Company, 202Drinking water, safesee also Freshwater; Rivers andriver basins; Water; Water pollutionaccess to, 48,85,86,164,252-53and children's health, 81,83,85,86heavy metal contamination, 42pesticides in, 100-01,103in poor countries, 30,38Drought, 94,163• • .1. Du Pont de Nemours & Co.,202East Asia, contraceptive use, 77East China Sea, 176Eastern Europe, see Central EuropeEaton Corporation, 170Ecological Studies Institute, 69Economic Commission for Africa, 32Economic developmentsee also Sustainable developmentassisted self-reliance, 34conservation of natural resourcesand, 4credit availability and, 33and economic growth, 2and employment opportunities, 34and human development, 2,4,6,31-32,79income distribution, 79,80,81and land tenure reform, 34levels, see Case studies of economicdevelopmentlocal participation in, 33-34measure of, 14,29military and state security budgetsand, 5in poor countries, 32-35in rapidly industrializing countries,45,47stabilization and structural adjustmentpolicies, 32-33and subsidies, 34trade barriers to, 4women's opportunities and, 34-35Economic growthand economic development, 2and energy demand, 67energy taxes and, 10and sustainable development, 20,32,81trend comparison, 15wars and conflicts and, 11Economic indicatorscentral government expenditures,240-41development assistance, 236-37external debt, 238-39gross domestic product, 236-37gross national product, 236-37world commodity indexes andprices, 242Economyagricultural, 97-98world, 1Ecosystemsdiversity, 128ignorance about, 134-35old-growth forests, 24"services" provided by, 127Ecuador, 81,140,187,218,226-27,231Educationsee also Literacyassistant teachers, 31biological/bioparks, 137central government expenditures,by country, 240-41child mortality and, 85community involvement in, 31,226,227in developing countries, 79economic development and, 31,75in poor countries, 4,5,31,38postsecondary, 254-55primary school, 14,15,31,34,35,38,43,44,45,48,254-55in rapidly industrializing countries,43,44,45,48,50, 52and resource conservation, 6technology development and, 7of women, 6,34,35Egypt, 95,163El Salvador, 11Electricitydemand, 51households without, 264-65least-cost planning, 151,154,156power shortages, 51production trends, 144,147,314-15Elephant ivory ban, 133Employmentin Central Europe, 57in poor countries, 32-35in rapidly industrializing countries,47,49rural, 34,47,96strategies for providing, 19,34Endangered species, 24,133,163,358-59Endowments, 140Energy conservation/efficiencyand air pollution control, 202in appliances, 154,157audits, 69benefits, 22,149-51in buildings, 22,151,154,157carbon taxes, 8,10in Central Europe, 60-61,69,71-72data bases and clearinghouses, 154end-use, 53energy demand and, 149-54energy prices and, 68-69,156exports and imports, 69,154-55gains possible, 10,21,53,143and greenhouse gases, 10,22,151home, 21,23incentives, 53,143in industrial countries, 21-22industrial development and, 43,60-61joint ventures, 155least-cost planning, 151licensing, 155manufacturing, 21model programs, 156-57motor vehicles, 21,22,23,154and pollution control, 202Program for Commercial EnergyResearch,156in rapidly industrializing countries,53regulations, 23savings /costs, 72,151service companies, 156technology cooperation in, 36-37,69,149-57in transportation, 21,53Energy consumptionsee also specific sourcesin Central Europe, 61,145-46commercial, 145-47,316-19demand-side management, 23in developing countries, 143,144,145,147-51economic policies and, 23,67emission taxes, 8imports as a percentage of, 316-17in industrialized countries, 18,143,144-47energy intensity, 21,60-61,145,318-19per capita, 144and pollution, 20,149price reform and, 21,23,51,68-69projected trends, 146-47in rapidly industrializing countries,43,44,46,48,49,50,51,52,53regulation of, 23requirements, by country, 316-17renewable sources, 145by sector, 21,149-51,318-19traditional fuels, 36-37,144,148trends, 2,4,15,20-21Energy productionsee also specific sourcescommercial, by country, 314-15in developing countries, 144,147-48in industrialized countries, 144-47trends, 143,144-47waste incineration and, 319Energy resourcesin industrialized countries, 20-23renewable, 20,22-23,202reserves, 49,148,149,336-37transitions in use, 20-21Environment and Development inthe Third World, 231Environment Liaison Centre International,231Environmental Defense Fund, 231Environmental issues, 1disasters, 57,78health-related, 62information sources, 362-64in newly industrializing countries,42poverty alleviation and, 3,4,30-31Environmental impact assessments,72,123Environmental Law Institute, 69Environmental laws and regulationsagricultural, 106-07in Central Europe, 60,72disclosure of toxic releases, 10-11,25effects, 25energy efficiency-related, 23enforcement, 35,53in rapidly industrializing countries,53trade-related, 67-68Environmental movements, 60Environmental protectionsee also Pollution control and preventionaction plan, 362-63cooperative ventures, 52government role in, 35media role, 35in poor countries, 35public access to information and, 72socialism and, 60372World Resources 1992-93

IndexEnvironmental Statistical Compendium,362-63Environmentally sensitive areas, protection,106Equines, 276-77Estuariessee also Coasts and coastal watersdrainage area, 338-39nutrient discharges into, 104,338-39pollution, 7,175,184Ethiopia, 11,37,38Euphrates River basin, 163Europe (European Community)see also Central Europeagriculture, 10,24,99,102,103-04,105,106air pollution, 64,65,104child mortality, 78drinking water contamination, 103-04energy production, consumption,and sources, 37,61,144,148energy taxes, 8fisheries, 179HIV infection, 79infant mortality, 78land management agreements, 106Less-Favoured Areas Directive, 106life expectancy, 63Phare Programme, 68population growth, 76protected areas, 136soil degradation, 112,114,116tropical timber import taxes, 122trade, 53,122water pollution, 89EuropeanInvestment Bank, 68Monitoring and Evaluation Programme,66Trust for Natural and Cultural Inheritance,59Evapotranspiration, 166Everglades, 171External debtby country, 52,238-39current borrowing, 238-39Debt for Child Development program,38debt-for-nature swaps, 38,51,122-23,140,309and deforestation, 120and development projects, 98disbursed long-term public debt,238-39economic effects, 32,46,52energy financing and, 149OPEC policies and, 147percentage of GNP, 238-239and resource conservation, 135service, 38,147,238-39total, 238-39U.S. reduction of, 123Exxon Valdez oil spill, 13,139,182• amily planning programs, 8and birth rates, 49,85and demand reduction for resources,141for men, 45,78models, 9population assistance programs, 76-77and population growth, 32Pro-Pater male health clinics, 45and women's health, 77Famine, 94Fertility rateschild mortality and, 85by country, 44,46,48,49,50,52,76,248-49and population growth, 80trends, 5,15,76-78women's education and, 6Fertilizersanimal manure, 65,102-06,163,169,171effectiveness, 100green mulches, 124off-farm effects, 42,25,65,89,93,103-04,139organic, 37sewage sludge, 64,103standards, 107subsidies, 8,10taxes on use, 105,106use trends, 3,6,42,97,101,274-75water pollution, 62,65,89,97,139,163,168,169Filariasis, 79Finland, 66,68,129,105,106,107,130Fishconsumption, 340-41contamination, 177,185freshwater catches, 163,178,181,340-43habitat losses, 177-78,180kills, 185marine catches, 7,96,175,177-78,181,339-41ponds, 124,169-70production for food, 94quotas, 178,179,180species losses, 169,172,180threatened and endangered species,132,304-05world catches, 96Fisheriessee also Aquacultureagreements, 176composition changes, 180freshwater, 132habitat losses, 180ocean, 7,339overharvesting of, 6,30,49,131,132,175,180policy reforms, 141pollution effects, 7,42,159,168trends, 178-80yield and potential, 339Fishingcentral government expenditures,by country, 240-41driftnet, 180,181tuna-dolphin controversy, 180,181,182Flooding, 160,166,185Flue gas desulfurization, 70-71Fluoride/fluroine emissions, 60,61Foodaid, 38,94,98,220,278-80contaminants, 88fish and fish products, 88,96,340-41handling practices, 83from livestock, 95-96price controls, 93,97,98,139population growth and, 93production trends, 1-2,3,93,94-96,272-73security, 132subsidies, 34,86,97,98supplies, 94,98trade, 98,278-79Food and Agriculture Organization,96,118,120,217Forest productssee also Timberconsumers and consumptiontrends, 17,18losses to air pollution, 199producers, 24valuation of, 121wood production and trade, 288-89ForestryAgenda 21,120central government expenditures,by country, 240-41in industrial countries, 24Malasian National Forestry Policy,51sustainable, 44,119-20,223,225-26Tropical Forestry Action Plan, 120,124,140Forestssee also Deforestation; Reforestation;Tropical forestsagriculture and, 3,6,115-16ancient, 104Central European, 66closed, 286-87conversion to rangeland, 121defoliation in Europe, 66,197,198fragmentation, 118land area, by country, 262-63,286-87managed, 286-87management by local women, 130old-growth, 133open, 286-87overharvesting at world heritagesites, 302-03ownership, 121-22principles on management, conservation,and sustainable development,119-20protected, 286-87in rapidly industrializing countries,47,51resource pricing, 8riparian, 167runoff control, 160temperate and boreal, 118valuation of, 121Formaldehyde, 195Fossil fuelssee also Coal; Natural gas; Oiland climate change, 2,3,7-8,9-10,143consumption, 2,4,17,20,21,143electric power production from, 22emissions, 2,5,7-8,20,21,22,205-06,350prices, 10subsidies, 8Franceenergy consumption, 18,145forest defoliation, 66land conservation, 106manufacturing energy intensity, 21nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65petrol prices and fleetefficiency, 21poverty in, 19resource/materials consumption,18sulfur dioxide emissions, 64,201threatened species, 129water pollution, 104,171-72Freshwatersee also Irrigation; River basins;Water pollutionconservation, 163from desalination, 159,164environmental stresses, 159fish catches, 340-41industrial withdrawals, 159,166lakes, species losses, 132Middle East supplies, 163per capita consumption, 161politics, 163,171quality, 161-63pollution/pollutants, 24,159,161-63resources, 159,160,328-29salinization, 163,166,168,186and sanitation, 164shortages, 159,163sources, 159,160supply, 159and sustainable agricultural development,163use, 159,160-61,328-29valuation, 183Friends of the Earth, 69,226Fuel cells, 22Fuelsalternative, for motor vehicles, 203animal waste as, 143subsidies, 35,51Fuelwoodconsumption, 143,148overexploitation, 37,115,116,148production, 288-89Fundacion Nature, 218,226-27Fujii, Yasumasa, 209Fynbos, 131I abon, 96The Gambia, 81Gandhi, Mohandas, 218Gas turbine combined-cycle systems,22Gene banks, 136General Agreement on Tariffs andTradeagricultural trade liberalization, 98timber trade restrictions, 122tuna import ban, 182Genetic resources, 10,47,54,128,134,140Geothermal energy, 144,145,314-15Germany (East)energy consumption, 61environmental conditions, 57,61environmental laws and regulations,72forest defoliation, 66industrial pollution, 67integration with West Germany,58,72life expectancy, 63nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65nuclear reactor accident, 71sulfur dioxide emissions, 64transboundary sulfur pollution, 66water pollution, 65Germany (West)agriculture, 103-06aquaculture, 169biodiversity losses, 104carbon dioxide emissions, 147forest defoliation, 66industrial pollution, 168infant mortality, 62lead pollution, 161manufacturing energy intensities,21nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65petrol prices and fuel efficiencies, 21pollution control in, 70,107,171-72,201poverty in, 19resource/materials consumption,18sewage treatment, 161,169sulfur dioxide emissions, 64timber bans, 122wetlands losses, 129Ghana, 81agroforestry, 33Global Biodiversity Strategy, 133-34,138-39Global Environmental Facility, 140Global warming, 3action program for 21st Century, 26carbon dioxide emissions and, 5,7,208-09deforestation and, 10,118,125effects of, 7,131,160,178World Resources 1992-63373

Indexfossil fuel use and, 2,3,7-8,9-10,143ozone depletion and, 200treaty, 204trends, 205Goiter, 85Grain, 95,276-77Grameen Bank, 33,218,224Grasslands, losses, 128,129,168Grassroots organizationseconomic development role, 33-34funding of, 219mobilizing collective action, 221purpose, 216strengths, 221-22weaknesses, 222Grazingrights, 8soil degradation from, 97,114,115,169,290at world heritage sites, 302-03Great Barrier Reef, 137,139Great Lakes water quality agreements,187Greenhouse gas emissionssee also Carbon dioxide emissionsatmospheric levels, 205,350cost of reduction, 10by country, 208current, 206deforestation and, 205-06effects, 7,20,27indexes, 207-10international agreements, 10methane, 348-49national rankings, 208past, 206per capita rankings, 208-10sources, 2,7,17,20,348-49reduction strategies, 10target limits, 210-11volume and distribution, 205-10Greenpeace, 226Gross domestic productdistribution, 236-37central government expendituresas percentage of, 240-41Gross national product (GNP)by country, 236-37defense expenditures, 37development assistance as a percentageof, 236-37disbursed long-term public debt asa percentage of, 23S-39external debt and, 32in newly industrializing countries,42per capita, 14,32,44,46,236-37pollutant emissions per dollar, 64-65in rapidly industrializing countries,41,42,44,46,48,49,50,52real, average annual change, 236-37total, 236-37Ground waterdepletion, 30,166movement into riverbasins, 166pollution, 42,62,64,89,102,104,107recharge zones, protection, 107Group of Seven, 120Guam, 131Guatemala, 81,82,86,140Gulf of Mexico, 176abitatscoastal, 175,176,178-79coral reefs, 131,178fragmentation, 129freshwater, 132,159islands, 131-32losses, 6,24,30,104,128-30,132,137,175-78Mediterranean climate areas, 131status of, 130-33temperate rainforests, 131tropical forests, 130-31Haiti, 11,29,36Haribon Foundation, 231Hawaiian Islands, 131,166Hazardous substances, 11biological and toxin weapons, 360-61conventions, 360-61exports of waste, 67-68full-disclosure requirement, 25nuclear accidents, 360-61ocean pollution, 175,177storage areas, 66transport of, 360-61water pollution, 64,159Healthsee also Children's health; specificdiseases and conditionsbirths attended by trained personnel,254-55anticancer drugs, 133indoor air pollution and, 195major causes of death and disease,62,78occupational factors, 62pollution and, 62-63,78,169,194-97trends, 78-79vector-borne diseases, 79women's, 6,34,77sewage discharges and, 159,165,168Health servicesaccess to, 85,252-53administration of antibiotics, 82in Central Europe, 62-63central government expenditures,by country, 240-41and child mortality, 86for children, 85,87community-based, 9,31immunization, 32improvement strategies, 5,9,31-32,81and infant mortality, 31-32medical personnel, by country, 252-53occupational, 63in poor countries, 5,9,31-32preventive, 31,48in rapidly industrializing countries,45,50rural, 31,32,252-53traditional healers, 32Heathland, 104Heavy metalssee also specific metalsbioaccumulation, 168,177in drinking water, 42marine pollution, 178and soil degradation, 62,66pollution control, 53,183sources, 66,103,168water pollution, 42,62,64,65,159,161,162,168,177,183Hedgerows, 104Helsinki Commission, 68Hepatitis, 42,177Himalayan watershed, 160HIV infection, 79,90Homelessness, 30Honduras, 36Hong Kong, 42,43, 75,176Householdsenergy consumption, 318-19female-headed, 83size, by country, 264-65without electricity, 264-65freshwater withdrawals for, 328-29Hovanyi, Gabor, 60Hudson River, 176Human cultural diversity, 128,131Human developmentsee also Education; Health servicecommunity improvement programs,9and economic development, 2,4,6,8,31-32,81and environmental protection, 31foreign assistance for, 37freedom and, 80measurement of, 14,79-81military/state security expendituresand, 8-9,37-38in poor countries, 8,31-32priority-setting, 8in rapidly industrializing countries,43,45targeted government interventionand, 81technology development and, 7trend comparison, 15urban self-help programs, 9Human Development Index, 29Human problems, 1Human settlements, see Cities; Urbanareas and urbanizationHungaryaquaculture, 169energy consumption, 61,146energy efficiency, 157environmental conditions and disasters,57,61,64-65environmental laws and regulations,72environmental movement, 60forest defoliation, 66infant mortality, 62life expectancy, 63modernization projects, 68nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65nuclear power, 71sulfur dioxide emissions, 64transboundary sulfur pollution, 66unpolluted areas, 58water quality, 64-65Hunger, 30Hydrocarbons, 23,63,64,65,70,149,167,203,351Hydrogen fuel, 23,202Hydrogen sulfide, 61Hydrological cycle, 165Hydropower, 84,123,314-15,330-31consumption and production, 144,145,148drought and, 163environmental problems, 22resources, 50Hygiene, personal, 83,86I celand, 131Ichi River basin, 168Incineration of waste, 319Indiaagriculture, 36aquaculture, 169bicycle industry, 54CFC consumption and production,152child mortality, 15,31economic development, 156energy consumption and production,4,15,37,144,148,149-50,151energy efficiency technology, 154,155, 223exports, 155fertility trends, 25,76forest management by localwomen, 130,225GNP, 34,37Industrial Credit and InvestmentCorporation, 156infant mortality, 86irrigation investments, 98joint technology ventures, 156lead poisoning, 88livestock populations, 95-96nongovernmental organizations,218,221-22,223,225-26,227,231primary school enrollment, 14,15soil degradation, 97Indian Ocean, 131Indigenous peoples, see Local culturesand peoplesIndo-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission,187Indonesiaagricultural subsidies, 135aquaculture, 169deforestation, 47,48,51education, 43,45employment, 47energy consumption, 48,53energy efficiency, 157Environmental Forum, 230exports of primary products, 47external debt, 38fertility rates, 76irrigation investments, 98nongovernmental organizations,218-19,224,227,229-30,231pollution control, 229-30profile, 48reserve management, 137,138Industrial materials, consumption, 18Industrial pollution, 6carbon dioxide, 346-47in Central Europe, 64-65of coastal waters, 185and children's health, 88costs of control, 170control technologies, 54,170of freshwater, 62,159,168in newly indistrializing countries,42by OECD countries, 25prevention, 25,51in rapidly industrializing countries,50,52reduction strategies, 52,53,54,170Industrializationand energy efficiency, 60-61measure of, 14-15and pollution, 6,87-89and soil degradation, 114,116strategies, 54see also Rapidly industrializingcountriesIndustrialized countriesagricultural resources and policies,23-25,104-05causes of death, 78,79child mortality, 78contraceptive use, 77economic development levels, 14energy efficiency, 143energy production and consumption,143,144-47energy resources, 20-21,148environmental cleanup, 25fertility rates, 76,77food supplies, 94foreign assistance for human development,9forest resources, 23-25forestry fund transfers to developingcountries, 123habitat losses, 128-29,177human development in, 9,18infant mortality, 78,89manufacturing efficiencies, 25-26natural resource consumption, 4pollution contribution, 4374World Resources 1992-93

Indexpopulation growth, 76,77poverty in, 19producer subsidy equivalents, 105renewable energy resources, 22-23responsibilities for sustainable development,4sustainable development dimensions,17-20technologies, 19-20,26-27Industryenergy conservation, 71energy consumption, by country,328-39energy intensity, 318-19freshwater withdrawals by, 328-29gross domestic product, 236-37labor force, by country, 264-65water withdrawals for, 159,166Infant healthbirth defects, 86,88,177breastfeeding, 83,85cerebral palsy, 88low birth weight, 83, 84,85,86,88,254-55methemoglobinemia, 89neonatal tetanus, 83,84pollution effects, 88,89prematurity, 86respiratory infection, 82Infant mortalityhealth services and, 31-32in industrialized countries, 78,89pollution and, 162in poor countries, 31-32,45,62,81,82,83, 84, 86,88,250-51in rural areas, 31in urban areas, 89Information technologiesapplications in rapidly industrializingcountries, 54clearinghouse on environmentaltechnology, 69networking, 231NGO applications, 69,231pollution prevention and control, 26INFOTERRA, 362-63Infrastructure, rehabilitation, 34Institute for European EnvironmentalPolicy, 69Institute for Local Self-Reliance, 170Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad,137-38Inter-American Development Bank,38,187Inter-American Foundation, 217,221Interethnic Association for Developmentof the Peruvian Jungle, 124Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, 2,5,21,205International Commission for the Protectionof the Rhine Against Pollution,171-72,187International Conference on Waterand the Environment, 164International cooperationsee also ConventionsCentral European-Western partnerships,68Comprehensive Mexico-UnitedStates Environmental Border Program,52Indonesia-Canada Twinning Project,229-30information exchange, 69nongo vernemntal organizations,228-300pollution control, 68-69,159river basin management, 159,171-73International Council of VoluntaryAgencies, 217International Debt Management Authority,140International Drinking Water Supplyand Sanitation Decade, 86,164International Energy Agency, 154International Fundfor Agricultural Development, 33for Conservation of Biological Diversity,140for Plant Genetic Resources, 140International Institute for AppliedSystems Analysis, 69International Institute for EnergyConservation, 53,154International Monetary Fund, 32,46International Society of Soil Science,112International Soil Reference and InformationCentre, 112International Tropical Timber Organization,122,124,140International Women's Year, 218Iran, 11,181Iraq, 11,163,181Ireland, 131Iron deficiency anemia, 86Iron ore, 186,323-23Irrigation, 6area under, 98,161cropland, 274-75diversions of water for, 168-69,185energy consumption, 151health effects, 84,85investments in, 98with polluted water, 50small-scale, 36,85and soil degradation, 97,101-02,105,115,116subsidies, 8,23,47,105,135water charges, 105water harvesting and spreadingtechniques, 163and water pollution, 163,168,185water users association, 223water withdrawals, 93,97,159,161,166,328-29Islands, species losses, 131-32Israel, 169,181Italyforest defoliation, 66nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65petrol prices and fuel efficiencies, 21poverty in, 19resource/materials consumption,38sulfur dioxide emissions, 64threatened species, 229IUDs, 256-57Ivermectin, 79%0 amaica, 80,81,123,151Japanagricultural policies, 10,24,99-100,101,104energy consumption/intensities,38,145,150fisheries and fishing practices, 179,180,181GNP,42greenhouse gas emission reductionstrategy, 26heavy metal pollution, 161,168life expectancy, 62,63manufacturing energy intensities,21materials consumption, 38oil imports, 145sewage treatment, 161threatened species, 329Japanese Overseas Economic CooperationFund, 98Java, 47Jordan,163Jordan River basin, 163Kaliningrad, 66Kaminski, Bronislaw, 67Kattegat strait, 176Kavanagh, Mikaail, 51Kelleher, Graeme, 139Kenya, 30,81,133,140,195,220,223,225-26,231Korea, Democratic People's Republic,148Korea, Republic of, 53contraceptive use, 77economic development, 42,75energy production and consumption,43,148human development, 80pollution, 42Kornai, Janos, 60Kuwait, 150,164,182^•abor forceby country, 246-47,264-65by sector, 264-65women in, 264-65Lakes, freshwater, 132,166Landarea, by country, 262-63,283-82bioregional management, 137by climatic classes, 282-82degradation, 1,3,5; see also Soil degradationtransport infrastructure area, bycountry, 266-67use, by country, 262-63Land reformsconservation and management, 106heritage agreements, 106NGO role in, 226ownership of tropical forests, 121-22taxes,8tenure-related, 4,8,34,45,46,135Landfills, 329Landscape degradation, 104Latin Americasee also specific countrieschild mortality, 78cholera epidemics, 81deforestation, 118energy production and consumption,144,148energy reserves, 148,149fertility rates, 76food production, 95,96infant mortality, 78information networking, 231land tenure rerform, 121-22malnutrition in, 84nongovernmental oganizations, 220population distribution, 30population growth, 76,77poverty alleviation, 45rapidly industrializing countries, 41soil fertility, 96Laws, see Environmental laws andregulationsLeademissions, 61, 63,65,177,197health effects, 62,70,88,197poisoning, 62,83,88pollution reduction, 51,70,72,197production and consumption, 320reserves, 320,322-23soil levels, highest, 66sources, 62,63,65,70,88water pollution, 161,177,183,186Lebanon, 11Legumes, 101,102-03,124Libya, 95Life expectanciesby country, 44,45,48,62,63,248-49in developing countries, 79in poor countries, 30and population growth, 80trends, 78,80Literacyby country, 30,49,254-55in developing countries, 79child mortality and, 85,86,87in poor countries, 30,31in rapidly industrializing countries,43,45of women, 35,49, 77, 85,254-55Lithium, 322-23Livestock and livestock farmsgrain consumption, 276-77manure storage and disposal, 100,102-03,106,107,171methane emissions, 104,349-50overgrazing, 115populations, 95-96,276-77production, 95-96subsidies, 8water pollution from, 102-03,107,169,171Local cultures and peoplesactivism, 123-24,227,230-31agricultural practices, 36conservation role, 130,136,137-38control of resources, 135Coordinating Body of the IndigenousOrganizations of the AmazonBasin,230-31health care role, 87knowledge of, 135land tenure, 121-22participation in development, 31,36,120,123-24,134,222-23protection of, 46threats to, at world heritage sites,302-03Logging, 96see also Timberbans, 47,48,51,122benefits vs. costs, 121and biodiversity losses, 120,139and coastal water degradation, 183,185deforestation rates, 51,118of old-growth forests, 24opposition by local peoples, 123,227runoff and runoff control, 171,175subsidies, 8,46,121taxes on exports, 51water pollution from, 159,165,169,171,185London Dumping Convention, 183Luxembourg, 171ladagascar, 118,129,133,135Maize, 100,101,102,104,105,107,132Malaria, 79,82,84,177Malawi, Lake, 132,133Malaysiaair quality, 51aquaculture, 169birth rates, 45energy consumption, 51,148energy efficiency, 157exports of primary products, 47human development, 43,45,80lead poisoning, 88logging, 47,51,121,123nongovernmental organizations,223,226profile, 44World Resources 1992-83375

IndexMalnutrition, 1,31,34,81,83,84-85,89Mammalsmarine, fatal viral diseases, 177threatened species, 129,304-05trade in, 300-01Man and Biosphere Programme, 137Management Sciences for Health, 69Manganese, 322-23Mangrove forests, 135-36,160aquaculture and, 49,180losses, 6,49,175,177,178Manufacturingenergy intensities, 21environmental strategies, 25-26Marginal lands, 5,6,33,94,96Market forcesderegulation, 11energy prices, 68-69management in Central Europe, 67-70motor vehicles, 69-70and natural resource valuation, 11privatization, 11Materials technology, 26Maternal mortality, 34-35,77,84,250-51Mead, Margaret, 219Measles, 82,83,84Mediterranean climate areas, 102,131Mediterranean Sea, 175,177,183,184,187-88,190-91Men, literacy rates, 254-55Mental retardation, 85,86,88Merck & Co., Inc., 138Mercury, 88,177,183,190,320Metalssee also Heavy metals; specific metalsconsumers and consumptiontrends, 17,18,320-21production, 320-21reserves, 320-23Methane, 71,195,200,205,206,348-50Methemoglobinemia, 89,101Methyl chloroform, 350Methyl mercury, 13,88Mexico, 41,43cholera epidemics, 81deforestation, 47,118earthquake relief, 228economic development, 45endangered species, 132energy policies, 148exports, 47,155lead poisoning, 88life expectancy, 45nongovernmental organizations,221,227-228oil economy, 147pollution control, 53population distribution, 177profile, 52soil degradation, 222,116Superbario, 228Middle Eastfood production, 95freshwater, 159,163,171precipitation, 160Migratory species, 358-59Milk, 94,105,278-79Minamata Bay methyl mercury poisoning,13Mining, water pollution from, 72,168,175Minnesota Mining & ManufacturingCompany, 25,170Mississippi River, 185,187Molluscs, 340^2Molybdenum, 322-23Monsanto Company, 25,202Montreal Guidelines on Land-BasedPollution, 288Montreal Protocol on Substances ThatDeplete the Ozone Layer, 8,152-53,200Mortality rates, by country, 250-51Motor vehiclesair pollution contribution, 296,197-98catalytic converters, 70,72,196,203in Central Europe, 62-64,69-70electric, 23,150emissions, 23,42,51,62-65,70fuel alternatives, 23,203fuel/energy efficiency, 21,22,67,70,150,154"lean manufacturing" system, 26market growth, 69-70passenger miles traveled, 266-67persons per car, 266-67pollution reduction, 23,51,70,72,203-04traffic congestion reduction, 53,204trips by purpose and length, 22use rates, 21-22Mozambique, 11,96Myanmar, 11,122,129I amibia, 133Natain, Sunita, 209National Audubon Society, 219National parks, 136National State of the Environment Report,362-63National Wildlife Federation, 217Natural gasconsumption, 143,145,146,148,202conversion of coal-fired systems to,70,71methane emissions from production,348-49production, 244,145,147reserves, 49,147,248,149,336-37Natural resourcessee also Conservation of natural resources;specific resourcesaccess to, 8consumption, 4,14-15,134inequities in distrubution, 135information sources, 362-63management, 2pressures on, 1,5pricing, 8,121subsidies, 8valuation, 11Natural Resources Defense Council,217Nepal, 34,36,37,79,148Netherlandsagricultural policies, 105,106animal manure controls, 107groundwater protection, 107livestock production, 105,107,171poverty, 19sewage treatment, 161threatened species, 229timber trade, 122water pollution, 104,168,171-72wetlands losses, 129Neurotoxicity, 62New Guinea, 138New Zealand, 105,129,131Newly industrializing countries, sustainabledevelopment in, 42-43,53,"5Nicaragua, 11Nickel, 322,322Nigeria, 11,81,147Nile River, 171Nile Water Agreement, 187Nitrate pollution, 65,100-01,103-04,107,172Nitrite, in groundwater, 64,89Nitrogendioxide, 61,65,195emissions, 65,351estuarine loadings, 175,188-89,338-39fertilizers, 102-03marine pollution, 175,176-77,184,185,186,338-39Nitrogen oxide emissions, 42control of, 70, 71,199,201,203environmental effects, 17health effects, 196smog formation, 64,194,196sources, 17,23, 61,62,63,65,104,149,196target reductions, 67,199Nitrous oxide, 104,206,350Nongovernmental organizationssee also Grassroots organizations;Service organizations; specific organizationsin Africa, 220-21in Asia, 31,218,220communications technology, 231confrontational strategy, 227economic development role, 33-34education role, 31emerging trends, 228-31government relations with, 226-28funding of, 218,219information technology, 69,231in Latin America, 220leadership, 224legal defense role, 231networks and associations, 230-32North-South relations, 216-17,228-30organizational factors, 224-26origins and regional differences,216-21policy research role, 231population stabilization role, 32public policy role, 226-27,232strengths and weaknesses, 221-24and United Nations system, 219women's role and organizations,225-26working with governments, 227-28and World Bank, 217Nordic Investment Bank, 68North Americasee also specific countriesagricultural subsidies, 104child mortality, 78energy production, consumption,and sources, 37,244, 248HIV infection, 79infant mortality, 78life expectancy, 63population growth, 76,77protected areas, 136soil degradation, 212,114,116North Sea, 145,171,176,177,178Norway, 21,66,107,129,130,131Norway spruce, 66Nuclearaccidents, 71,78,145,360-61conventions, 360-61energy, 22,71,244,145,146,148,324-25test ban, 360-61Nurses and midwives, availability bycountry, 252-53Nutrients, water pollution from, 161,162Nutritionbreastfeeding, 83,85calories available, by country, 250-52child mortality and, 85iodine deficiency, 85iron deficiency anemia, 86protein consumption, by country,250-51strategies, 34vitamin A deficiency, 85'aks,66Oats, 101Ocean pollution and damagesee also Fisheriesalgal blooms, 161,176,185,190control efforts, 183-85conventions, 183,358-62dumping of hazardous and radioactivematerials, 175-76,177from nutrients, 176-77from ozone layer thinning, 178regional approach to prevention,175,176,180—81Regional Seas Programme, 176,180-81,183,188,190surface threats, 178toxic chemicals, 177trends, 176-77Oceaniachild mortality, 78energy production and consumption,244infant mortality, 78population growth, 76protected areas, 136soil degradation, 122,114,116Oilconsumption, 145,150demand, 149exporters, 147extraction, 168and external debt servicing, 147imports by OECD countries, 145methane emissions from production,348-49price shocks, 46,48,60,97,143,144,145,147-50,154,156production trends, 144,145,147,150reserves, 52,248,149,150,336-37spills, 11,13,139,150,181well fires, 11,150Oilsfood aid, 278-79production, 94trade, 278-79Onchocerciasis, 79Oral contraceptives, 256-57Oral rehydration therapy, 32,81,82-83,254-55Organic farming, 24,36,99-100,107Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Developmentagricultural policies, 24,101,105,106child mortality, 25economic disparities within countries,18energy production and consumption,4, 25,18,21, 244,145energy reserves, 248,149fertility trends, 15forest products consumption, 28GNP, 24,15,17income per capita, 17industrial materials consumption,28metals consumption, 28municipal waste, 329natural resource demand, 17oil imports, 145pollution burden, 17,18,21,27pollution cleanup strategies, 25population, 17primary school enrollment, 14,15threatened species in, 129376World Resources 1992-93

Indexwastewater treatment, 167Organization of Petroleum ExportingCountries, 344,147,148Ozal, Turqut, 163Ozoneagricultural productivity losses to,199depletion of stratospheric layer, 6,8,9,152-53,178,194,200ground-level, 198-99,206health effects, 196Montreal Protocol, 8,152-53,200,360-63and smog formation, 64,194,196,198,206in urban areas, 20toxicity to plants, 199tropospheric, 205I acific Ocean, 131Pacific yew, 133Pakistan, 37,81,144,148,151,157Pan American Health Organization,84Paper production, 288-89Paraguay,224Paralytic shellfish poisoning, 177Particulate emissions, 61,62,194control measures, 53,67,70,71sources, 82,353target reductions, 67WHO maximum, 82Pasturelandarea, by country, 96,262-63incentives for establishing, 106losses, 104runoff, 171woodland conversion to, 23Pathogens, in freshwater, 161,162,177Peat lands, 104Pennsylvania, alternative agriculturepractices, 24Pentagonal Initiative, 68Persian Gulf War, 11,150,182Pertussis, 82,83Peru, 11,81,124,169,179,223,226,227-28Pesticide Action Network, 230Pesticides, 6,10bioaccumulation, 168biological, 103,124destruction of natural predators,47,135fish kills, 185health threat, 88,102,103,185off-farm effects, 42,103pest resistance to, 79,84,102poisoning of humans, 78,97and soil degradation, 24,104taxes on use, 106testing and licensing, 106use trends, 42,100,101,274-75water pollution, 62,100,103,104,168,169,172,183Petrolalternatives to, 203leaded, 63,88,177,186,203motor vehicle fuel efficiency, 21prices, 21,63taxes, 23Phenol, 61,65Philippinesagriculture, 96aquaculture and mangrove losses,135-36coral reef destruction, 183,185energy efficiency, 157irrigation, 98logging, 96,121,185Mt. Pinatubo eruption, 200nongovernmental organizations,220,224,226,231population density, 96traditional fuel use, 148Phosphate detergent ban, 185Phosphorus, estuarine loadings, 175,176,182-85,188-89,338-39Photovoltaic cells, 22Phytoplankton, 130,178Pigs, 96,276-77Pinochet, Augusto, 50Plantsbirth control, 135high-diversity areas, 130species losses, 104rare and threatened, 104,131,306-08trade in, 300-01Pneumonia, 82,88Polandauto emissions, 62-63,65energy consumption, 63,146energy policy, 67,68,71environmental conditions, 57,58,60,61,62, 64,66environmental policies, 60,67,72forest defoliation, 66infant mortality, 62life expectancy, 63modernization, 68motor vehicles, 63nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65pollution control, 68,70,71soil degradation, 66Solidarity trade union, 60stabilization program, 67sulfur dioxide emissions, 64transboundary sulfur pollution, 66water pollution, 64,67,72,168Polio, 83,84"Polluter pays" principle, 10,11,24,25,67,173,175Pollutionsee also Air pollution; Industrial pollution;Water pollutionagricultural, 6,10,65areas of ecological hazard or disaster,58cleanup, 25,57energy price reforms and, 68-69and health, 62-63,78in industrialized countries, 25and market forces,67-68,201monitoring, 11,66and public opinion, 10-11transboundary, 66,68,171at world heritage sites, 302-03Pollution control and preventioncoordination of, 187costs, 25,72,172end-of-pipe, 25energy prices and, 23,67expenditures, 25incentives for, 10-11industry measures, 170,202-03information technologies and, 26marine, 183-85regional approach to, 68,180-81from runoff, 170-71taxes, 8,11technology, 67tradable emission permits, 8transboundary, 68Polychlorinated biphenyls, 88,168,177,185Poor countriessee also Developing countries; specificcountriescharacteristics of, 29-30child mortality, 35debt burden, 32development assistance, 38economic development, 14,32-35economic policies, 37-38education in, 31employment opportunities, 34energy consumption and sources,4,35,36-37environmental degradation in, 30-31environmental protection, 35fertility trends, 15food aid, 98GNP, 34,15,29,37health care in, 31-32human development investments,31-32,37-38land tenure, 30,34local participation in developmentinitiatives, 33-34military expenditures, 37population growth, 30,32poverty in, 30-31primary school enrollment, 34resource mobilization, 37-38self-reliance, assisted, 34stabilization and structural adjustmentpolicies, 32-33subsidies in, 34sustainable development in, 29,30technology development, 35-37women's economic opportunities,34-35Population densityand agriculture, 96and coastal pollution, 176,177by country, 262-63Population distributionsee also Urbanizationby age group, 76,80,248-49children, 81in coastal areas, 331,176,177,336-37by country, 246-49environmental effects, 5labor forceby sector, 264-65by region, 76in rural areas, 30,31,264-65in urban areas, 30-31,50,131,177,264-65,336-37Population growthand agricultural practices, 94and biodiversity losses, 134causes, 76contraception and, 9,76-78in coastal areas, 336-37and child mortality, 76,85by country, 246-47,264-65environmental effects, 2,5fertility and, 76-78and food production, 3,94and human development, 5,9percentage change annually, 246-47poverty and, 4,9projections, 5,76,77,80,246-47,336-37in rapidly industrializing countries,45,50stabilization in poor countries, 9,32trends, 15,75,76-78Portugal, 102,105,106,329Potomac River basin, 167,171,176Povertysee also Poverty alleviationchildren in, 83,86health and, 86in industrial countries, 19,83number of people in, 30in rapidly industrializing countries,44,45,47,48,52Poverty alleviationchildren's health and, 86credit programs, 9and environmental issues, 3,4,30-31,47human development and, 5-6,8,9,19,75income support programs, 19land tenure reform and, 34,45in rapidly industrializing countries,45,47redistribution of wealth, 2by service organizations, 222in structural adjustment and developmentplans, 33,45,47Precipitation, 160,165,166,169; seealso Acid precipitationPreserves, 59,133Prices, see Commodity pricesPrivate sector, role in sustainable development,6-7Processed wood, 288-89Propane, 153Property rightsto genetic resources, 10,54,137-38,141land ownership by indigenous peoples,121-22technology transfer and, 152-53Protected areasbiodiversity conservation in, 136by country, 298-99custodial management, 136importance, 35marine and coastal, 139,29«-99threats to, 136World Heritage Sites, 136,298-99,302-03,358-59Pulses, 94,105,278-79I Hadioactive releases, 11,183Railroadsarea, by country, 266-67commuter, 53freight ton-kilometers, 266-67passenger miles traveled, 266-67Rainforests, temperate, 131Rangelands, forest conversion to, 121Rapidly industrializing countriessee also specific countriesagriculture in, 47air quality, 50,51child mortality, 35,43,44,46,48,49,50,52contraceptive use, 77definitionaldeforestation, 47,51,52economic development in, 14,45,47,49,50economic growth, 44,48,52education, 14,15,43,44,45,48,50energy consumption, 35,43,44,46,48-52fertility trends, 35,44,46,48,49,50,52GNP, 34,15,42,44,46,49,50,52human development in, 42,43,45,48,49,50,52life expectancy, 44,45,48natural resource conservation, 42,47,51Pacific rim,42-43population growth, 45,50pollution, 52,168technological development, 42,51,53trade, 47,53-54Recycling and reuse, 6,25,26,27,36and demand reduction, 141metal-bearing wastes, 170metalworking fluids, 170nutrient, 99water, 163Reforestationthrough human development programs,9World Resources 1982-93377

Indexmonocultural, 48rates, by country, 286-87subsidies, 51,106Refrigeration technology, 152-53Regional Environmental Center forCentral and Eastern Europe, 69Regional Seas Programme, 176,180-81,183,188,190Regulations, see Environmental lawsand regulationsReptilesthreatened species, 304-05trade in, 300-01Reserves, management, 136,138Respiratory infections and conditions,62,78, 79, 82,84,88, 89Rhine River basin, 159,161,168,171-72,183-84Rice, 47,97,98,104,132,168,348-49River blindness, 79Rivers and river basinssee also Freshwater; Water pollutiondifferences in, 166-67dynamics, 160,165,166-67environmental stresses, 159flows, 160international management, 171-73major, world, 165management, 171-73nutrient discharges into, 176pollution control, 169-71Rhine, 171-72salinization, 64,72,163sediment loads, 104,165,169,332-33sources of pollutants, 62,167-69volume of flows, 328-29Roadsarea, by country, 266-67freight ton-kilometers, 266-67Ivory Coast rainforest, 123runoff control, 171Rockefeller Brothers Fund, 69Romania, 58energy consumption, 62,146environmental conditions, 57life expectancy, 63nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65sulfur dioxide emissions, 64transboundary sulfur pollution, 66Roots and tubers, production andyields, 94,105,272-73Rosy periwinkle, 133,135Roundwood, 288-89Rubella, 83Ruhr River, 168Runoffagricultural, 42,97,102-04,139,169,170-71,175control, 107,163,170-71,189deforestation and, 160,169detention ponds, 170from livestock farms, 107,171from mining, 175from logging, 171,175urban, 167,170volume flowing into rivers, 160,166Rural areasdevelopment, 5,8,10,98education, 31employment, 34energy sources, 36-37,144health services, 31,32,252-53population distribution, 30-31,264-65safe drinking water, 31,86,252-53sanitation services, 31,86,252-53Rwanda, 96,140^^aint Lawrence Seaway, 177Salinas de Gortari, Carlos, 52,53Salt marshes, 177Salvation Army, 216Sanitation servicesaccess to, 85,86,164,252-53in developing countries, 38health and, 83,85Saudi Arabia, 164,182Savannahs, losses, 128,129Sawnwood, 288-89Schistosomiasis, 79,169Scotland, 131Scots pine, 66Seagrasses, 177,185Sediment pollutionand coral reef destruction, 183,185loads of rivers, 104,159,168,332-33sources, 175Selenium, 177Senegal, 31,220,221Service organizationsinnovative solutions to problems,223managerial and technical capacity,224participation of beneficiaries, 222-23purpose, 216reaching the poor, 222self-evaluation and accountability,223-24weaknesses, 223Service sectorgross domestic product, 236-37labor force, by country, 264-65Seto Inland Sea, 176Sewagehealth problems associated with,177sludge, 64,167,184untreated, 159,167,177,185water pollution, 62,64,159,161,162,176Sewage treatmentalternatives, 159and aquaculture, 169costs, 72,169in developing countries, 167-68in newly industrializing countries,42for pathogens, 167pollutants removed by, 167,176by region, 268and river water quality, 161in wetlands and fish ponds, 159,169-70Sheep and goats, 276-77Sierra Club, 219Silver firs, 66Singapore, 42,43,75,76Singapore River, 176Skagerrak strait, 176SKF Steel, Inc., 170Slovenia, 66Smallpox, 84Smith, Kirk, 209Smog, 23,50,62,64,194,96,197Social servicescentral government expenditures,by country, 240-41in poor countries, 31Socialism, and environmental deterioration,60Soil conservation and rehabilitation,113,124Soil degradation, 3acidification, 66,115,198,201,292agriculture and, 6,10,24,66,96-97,100,101,104,113-16,290areas of concern, 117-18assessment, 112,116causes, 66,96-97,111-12,114,115-16,290-92in Central Europe, 66chemical, 114,115,292compaction, 97,101,115,292conservation programs, 106,113costs, 104definition, 112-13deforestation and, 47,48,49,97,114,115-16,118degrees, 112-13estimates, 111-12and health, 84interventions, 102,223industrialization and, 66,114,116,290irrigation and, 97,101-02nutrient loss, 30,96,97,100,101,290from overexploitation, 114,290from overgrazing, 97,114,115,290physical, 114,115,292from pollution, 115,291in poor countries, 30by region, 222from salinization, 96,97,101-02,105,115,116,291subsidence of organic soils, 115,291trends, 111, 112,290-92types, 114-15from vegetation removal, 290from war and conflicts, 11waterlogging, 97,115,292world areas of, 116Soil erosionagriculture and, 6,24,96-97,104,107,108,168degrees of, by region, 290interventions, 102,106,113and malaria, 84processes, 115types, by region, 114and water pollution, 131,161,162,166,168,176winter wheat losses, 118Solar power, 22Somalia, 11Soot, 57,62South Americasee also Latin America; specific countriesfreshwater, 160protected areas, 136soil degradation, 112,114,116species diversity, 130water pollution, 88-89,168South Africa, 131,148South Asiasee also specific countriescontraceptive use, 77population distribution, 30precipitation, 160Southeast Asiasee also specific countriesdeforestation, 118land tenure rerform, 121-22precipitation, 160species diversity, 130Southern African Ivory MarketingCentre, 133Soybeans, 101,102,107Spain, 66Speciesdiversity, 128endemic, 130,131,132extinction crisis, 134,136ignorance about, 134information collection byparataxonomists, 137introduced, 130,132,141,302-03losses, 30,104,127-28monitoring in Costa Rica, 137-38number, 127-28threatened and endangered, 35,129,163,304-05tropical, 130Spotted owl, 24,133Sri Lanka, 76,80,86,226Steel and steelmaking, 60-61,149-50,155,321Sterilization, contraceptive, 256-57Stockholm Conference on the HumanEnvironment, 2Sub-Saharan Africachild health in, 84energy sources, 36-37,144GNP,32HIV infection, 79malnutrition in, 84population growth, 30,31,32,164sanitation, 164soil fertility, 96water supplies, 164Subsidiesagricultural, 8,10,24,35,47,105-06,107,135,139beneficial, 51,106,107commodity support programs, 10food, 34fuel/energy, 35,51irrigation, 8,23,47,105,135livestock, 8logging, 35,46,121mining, 72reforestation, 51,106organic farming, 107in poor countries, 34reduction strategies, 8,105Sudan, 11,37,94,95Sugar beets, 105Sulfuremissions, 352transboundary pollution, 66Sulfur dioxide emissionsamounts, by country, 64cities with high levels, 42,43control of, 70,71,199,201effects, 17,194indoor, 195sources, 17, 57,61, 62,64,65,149,194target reductions, 67,199Surface water, movement into riverbasins, 166Sustainable developmentdefinition, 2-4,17-18,41-42diversity of perspectives on, 13economic aspects, 2,4-5,8,12,17,20,32environmental issues, 6,9-12equity and, 3,81global issues, 11-12human development and, 4,5-6,8-9,12indicators, 14-15in industrial countries, 17-20policy tools, 8-11in poor countries, 29-39poverty alleviation and, 4,12population growth and distribution,5-6,9,12,75problems in achieving, 13resource mobilization for, 37-38strategies, 3-4technological dimension, 3,6-8,11,12war and, 11-12Sweden, 61agricultural reforms, 105,106energy efficiency technology information,154energy sources, 145forest defoliation, 66manufacturing energy intensities,21nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65petrol prices and fuel efficiencies, 21pollution control, 68,107poverty in, 19sewage treatment, 161378World Resources 1992-93

Indexspecies diversity, 130sulfur dioxide emissions, 64waste reduction, 170wetlands losses, 129Switzerland, 66,106,107,145,161,171-72Syr Darya, 166,168-69Syria, 163Szola River, 168• aiwan,42,53,54,75aquaculture, 169contraceptive use, 77energy production and consumption,148Tabganyika, Lake, 132Tanzania, 30,36,80Tasmania, 131Taxes and tax incentivesagricultural, 105,106,108,170energy, 8,10,23,53export/import, 122family size and, 45land, 8logging/timber, 35,51,122manure, 105pollution, 8,11,23,72,201Taxol, 133Tea, 98Teak, 122Technologies/technological developmentsee also Information technologiesin agriculture, 20,26,36and air pollution control, 201-02applicability to developing countries,155-56approaches, 11cooperation in development andtransfer, 151-56demand creation, 11and economic productivity, 7economically competitive, 26-27energy-related, 22,36-37,151-57flows, 155-56flue gas desulfurization, 70-71in industrial countries, 19-20information sharing on, 11licensing, 11,155local, 35-37joint ventures, 11,54,72,155-56and pollution, 25for pollution control, 54,72in poor countries, 35-37Program for Advancement of CommercialTechnology, 156in rapidly industrializing countries,51,53and sustainable development, 2,6-8,11,12,19-20transfer to low-income countries,10,11,27,69,134,152-53,156-57Tetanus, 83,84Thailandaquaculture, 169coastal management in PhuketProvince, 187,188contraceptive use, 77energy policies, 53,148,151,155,157family planning program, 45fertility rates, 76human development, 80irrigation, 47,98literacy rates, 43local cultures, 135logging and deforestation, 47,49,122nongovernmental organizations,224profile, 49sewage treatment, 167-68trade policies, 155Threatened and endangered species,35,129,304-05Timber, 47,122Tigris River basin, 163Tin, 177,321-23Titanium, 322-23Tobacco use, 79,88Tolba, Mostafa, 200Tourismnature, 140and pollution, 49,131at world heritage sites, 302-03Toxic chemicals, see Hazardous substancesTradeagricultural, 10,24,38,97,98,105,27S-79and biodiversity losses, 135boycotts, 122in coastal areas, 336-37cooperative associations, 53debt service as percentage of exports,23S-39energy efficiency technology, 154-55energy imports, 37,316-17environmental standards, 67-68,69export subsidies, 97,98flows, 155-56food, 95,278-79forest products, 122GATT negotiations, 98hazardous materials exports, 27,67-68import barriers, 4,10,24,38labeling and certification schemes,122liberalization, 98North American free trade agreement,52,53protectionist pricing policies, 4,34,105,122,154,155in rapidly industrializing countries,53-54reforms, 34,53,122,155regional, 34taxes and surcharges, 122timber, 122,288-89wildlife and wildlife products, 300-01Transportationsee also Motor vehiclesand air pollution, 196bicycle industry, 54central government expenditures,by country, 240-41energy consumption, 149,150-51,318-19energy efficiency in, 21,53,70,150-51,157of goods and passengers, 266-67infrastructure, by country, 266-67public, 21,22,23,150-51,157,266-67renewable energy technology in, 23Tropical forests, 6Action Plan, 124,140,362-63assessments, 362-63biodiversity losses, 128,130-31carbon sequestration, 46and climate, 46,131"debt-for-nature" swaps, 122deforestation, 47, 111, 118-19,127,128,131development assistance reforms,123financial support from industrializedcountries, 123international actions, 122-23land ownership, 121-22management plans, 120-25national policy reforms, 121-22natural resource accounting, 121status of, 130-31rights of local peoples, 123-25timber demand, 122trade reforms, 122Tropical Forestry Action Plan, 120Tsetse fly,20Tuberculosis, 79,83,88,89Tungsten, 322-23Tunisia, 154-55,157,163Turkey, 163Typhoid fever, 50,177u'ganda,ll,30,37Undugu Group, 163UNICEF, 38,89,219,226United Arab Emirates, 164United Kingdom, 102agriculture, 104,106child mortality, 86Countryside Commission, 106energy intensities, 145forest defoliation, 66groundwater pollution, 104lead pollution, 161manufacturing energy intensities,21nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65Oxford Committee for Famine Relief,217petrol prices and fuel efficiencies, 21poverty in, 19resource/materials consumption,18rural landscape losses, 104sulfur dioxide emissions, 64threatened species, 129timber trade, 122Voluntary Service Overseas, 217United NationsConference on Environment andDevelopment, 2,46,119,120,133,157,172,180,219Conference of the Human Environment,172Convention on the Rights of theChild, 89,90Decade for Women, 218Development Programme, 2,29,32,38,68,79,219Education, Scientific and CulturalOrganization, 137Environment Programme, 2,68,112,133,134,140,176,204,205,219,360-61Global Assessment of Soil Degradation,112,116Global Environmental MonitoringSystem, 194Group of Experts on Scientific Aspectsof Marine Pollution, 176,177International Oceanographic Commission,176members, 42and nongovernmental organizations,219population projections, 80recommendations on freshwater resources,172Regional Seas Programme, 176,180-81Water Conference, 164United Statesagriculture and farm policy, 10,24,102,103,104-05,123child health, 82,83,86,88child mortality, 78climate treaty position, 204coal production, 145Conservation Reserve Program, 106debt reduction for developing countries,123Department of Energy, 69desalination plants, 164Earth Day, 218education, 19energy consumption, 4,18,21,27,150energy efficiency industry, 154energy reserves, 149Environmental Protection Agency,52,69fisheries, 179Food for Peace Program, 123Food Security Act of 1985,106forests and forestry, 123,131GNP,42grasslands and savannah losses, 129lead poisoning, 88livestock populations, 96manufacturing energy intensities,21materials consumption, 18National Marine Fisheries Service,178National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration, 177nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65oil imports, 145Peace Corps, 217pesticides in groundwater, 103petrol prices and fuel efficiencies, 21pollution reduction strategies, 11,25population distribution, 177poverty in, 19,86soil degradation, 104,112sulfur dioxide emissions, 64threatened species, 129timber trade restrictions, 122water pollution, 104,176,177,184water shortages, 163wetlands losses, 129,177Uphoff, Norman, 34Urban areas and urbanizationand energy consumption, 21-22environmental effects, 5,81,89,165health services, by country, 252-53housing shortages, 50pollution/smog, 23,50,53,146,177,194-96population, by country, 30-31,50,264-65river basin pollution, 166-67runoff, 167,170safe drinking water, 48,86,164,252-53sanitation services, 86,159,164,252-53squatter settlements, 89traffic and transport management,204Uruguay, 221,226User charges, 34U.S.S.R.child mortality, 78energy policies, 61,71,143,244,145,146energy reserves, 148,149farm economy, 94infant mortality, 78,86irrigation, 166,168-69life expectancy, 63livestock populations, 96nitrogen dioxide emissions, 65oil production, 150population growth, 76species diversity, 130structural changes, 150sulfur dioxide emissions, 64transboundary pollution, 68U.S. World Wildlife Fund/ConservationFoundation, 69World Resources 1992-93379

Indexlw accine-preventable disease, 83-84Vaginal barrier contraceptives, 256-57Vanadium, 322-23Venezuela, 148Victoria, Lake, 132Viet Nam, 37,169Volatile organic compounds, 61,62,194,195,196,198,199w' addenSea,176Ward, Barbara, 219Wars and conflicts, 11,94,150Wastecomposition,329disposal methods, 329disposal sites, 25energy conversion, 155methane emissions, 348-49incentives for reducing, 10-11industrial, 17,53municipal, 329reduction, 159,170solid, 348-49Wastewaterfrom agriculture, 161costs of treatment, 72in OECD countries, 267reuse of, 159treatment, 164,167,168,175untreated, 64,65Watersee also Drinking water; Freshwaterconservation, 6,135,163desalination, 159,163,164disputes, international, 171erosion of soils, 290quality, 64-65,67,86,163prices, 163supply, 6,93treaties, 171Water pollutionsee also Oceans; River basinsacids, 162from agriculture, 6,10,24,42,65,97,103-04,168-69areas of concern, 162-63biochemical oxygen demand, 65,67,161in Central Europe, 64-65,72chlorides, 162effect on aquatic organisms, 162health problems, 162,165,177heavy metals, 162from human settlements, 167-68industrial, 88-89,162,168from livestock farming, 169from logging, 169marine, 139,141,175measure of, 67from mining, 168monitoring, 171in newly indistrializing countries,42nitrates, 65,100-01,103-04,107,172from nutrients, 25,97,103,104,162,163,176-77pathogens, 162in poor countries, 30reduction strategies, 68,72,169-71,180-81,183-85regional approach to, 141,171-72,180—81salinization, 64,72,163,168sediments, 162sources, 162,165,166target reductions, 67temperature elevation, 162from toxic chemicals, 162,177Watershedsmanagement, 117-18,187-91pollution, 182-83protection areas, 140temperate forests and, 131Waterways, transport, 266-67,332-33West Africa, 35,36Wetlands, 6convention, 140,358-59conversion to cropland, 23,106ecological role of, 166,167internationally important, 140,298-99losses, 129,163,177sewage treatment in, 159,169-70Wheat, 101,103,118,132Wilderness areasland area by country, 262-63Wildlands, 6Wildlifeoverexploitation, 5,30,302-03pesticide effects on, 103poaching, 136at world heritage sites, 302-03Wind power, 22-23,144,145,324-25Womenand children's health care, 35,37,85,86-87conferences, 218contraception, 6,77earnings, 35economic opportunities in poorcountries, 34-35education, 6,34,35,87employment, 34forest management by, 130health, 6,34,77labor force population, 264-65literacy rates, 35,49,77,85,254-55loans for, 33maternal mortality, 34-35,250-52nongovernmentalorganizationsfor, 33,225-26,230poverty, 31role in developing countries, 6role in nongovernmental organizations,225rural, 87World Bankagricultural lending, 98Central European investments, 68criticisms of development projects,187,217-18,221-22dam construction projects, 187,217,221-22nongovernmental organizationsand, 217-18,221-22review of biodiversity conservationprojects, 138stabilization and structural adjustmentpolicies, 32,33World Commission on Environmentand Development, 2World Conservation Union, 3-4,69,133,140,219World Council of Churches, 217World Environment Center, 69World Health Organizationchild survival strategy, 89malaria meeting, 84particulate limits, 82sulfur dioxide limits and ratings,42,62World Heritage Sites, 136,140,29S-99,302-03,358-59World Meteorological Organization,2,204,205World Parks Endowment, 140World Resources Data Base Index,381-82World Summit for Children, 81,86,89,90World Wide Fund for Nature, 51,218World Wildlife Fund, 218arkon/Taninim aquifer, 163Yarmuk River basin, 163Yosemite National Park, 136 'Yugoslavia, 62,63,64,65energy consumption, 146forest defoliation, 66modernization projects, 68political stability, 58HHambia, 25,133,222Zebra mussel, 130Zimbabwe, 81,88,133,220,221,222,226,231Zinc, 67,88,183,186,322-23Zoos, 128,132,136-137380World Resources 1992-93

World Resources Data Base IndexThe data base contains data in electronicform on diskette. Except where unavailable,the data range for each variableincludes annual data for the years listedand data for up to 153 countries, exceptwhere noted with an asterisk (*). The datacan be searched by variable, by country, orby year; it can also be exported to otherelectronic formats or graphed or put inchart form. For technical notes and sources,refer to the corresponding chapter of WorldResources 1992-93.Basic Economic IndicatorsGross national product in constant 1987 U.S.dollars, 1970-89Gross national product in current U.S. dollars,1970-89Official development assistance data, 1982-89Gross national product per capita in currentdollars, 1970-89Gross domestic product (GDP) in local currency,1970-39Agricultural share of GDP in local currency,1970-89Industrial share of GDP in local currency, 1970-89Services share of GDP in local currency, 1970-89Conversion factors between local to U.S.currency,1970-89Central government spending in local currency,1970-89Disbursed long-term public debt in U.S. dollars,1970-89Total external debt in U.S. dollars, 1970-89Current borrowing in U.S. dollars, 1970-89Total debt service in U.S. dollars, 1970-89Total exports of goods and services in U.S.dollars, 1970-89Selected world commodity indexes and prices inconstant 1987 U.S. dollars, 1975-89 *Selected central government expenditures for themost recent year availablePopulation and Human DevelopmentTotal population, 1950-2025Population growth rate, 1950-2025Total economically active population, 1950-2005Crude birth rate, 1950-2025Life expectancy—both sexes, 1950-2025Life expectancy—females, 1950-2025Life expectancy—males, 1950-2025Total fertility rate, 1950-2025Total population over age 65,1950-2025Crude death rates, 1950-2025Infant mortality, 1950-2025Maternal deathsChild malnutrition—wastingChild malnutrition—stuntingSafe drinking water availability—urban (1980 and1988)Safe drinking water availability—rural (1980 and1988)Sanitation services availability—urban (1980 and1988)Sanitation services availability—rural (1980 and1988)Health services availability—allHealth services availability—urbanHealth services availability—ruralNumber of doctorsNumber of midwives and nursesNumber of other medical personnelAdult female literacy (1970 and 1990)Adult male literacy (1970 and 1990)Percentage of population over age 25—completedprimary schoolPercentage of population over age 25—somepostsecondary educationPercent of 1-year-olds immunized against TBPercent of 1-year-olds immunized against DPTPercent of 1-year-olds immunized against polioPercent of 1-year-olds immunized against measlesPercent of married couples using any birthcontrol methodPercent of married couples using femalesterilizationPercent of married couples using malesterilizationPercent of married couples using oralcontraceptionPercent of married couples using injectablecontraceptionPercent of married couples using IUDsPercent of married couples using condomsPercent of married couples using vaginal barriercontraceptionPercent of married couples using other birthcontrol methodsPercent of married couples with affordable accessto female sterilizationPercent of married couples with affordable accessto the pillPercent of married couples with affordable accessto condomsPercent of married couples with affordable accessto abortionPercent of married couples with affordable accessto other methods of birth controlLand Cover and SettlementsTotal area, 1970-89Land area, 1970-89Cropland area, 1970-89Permanent pasture area, 1970-89Forest and woodland area, 1970-89Other land area, 1970-89Wilderness areaTotal urban population, 1970-90Total rural population, 1970-90Number of cities with one or more millioninhabitantsPercentage of population residing in cities with atleast 1 million inhabitants, 1950-2000Number of people residing in cities with at least 1million inhabitants, 1950-2000Occupants per householdRooms per householdPercentage of households without electricityTotal labor force, 1950-2005Percentage of labor force in agriculturePercentage of labor force in industryPercentage of labor force in servicesTotal extent of paved and unpaved roadTotal extent of paved roadTotal extent of rail trackTotal extent of inland navigable waterwayTotal extent of paved road per 1,000 square kmland areaTotal extent of rail track per 1,000 square km landareaTotal extent of inland navigable waterway per1,000 square km and areaTotal number of carsPassenger-km transported by public car/busPassenger-km transported by private car/busPassenger-km transported by trainPassenger-km transported by commercial aircraftTon-km of freight transported by roadTon-km of freight transported by railTon-km of freight transported by inlandwaterwayTon-km or freight transported by airFood and AgricultureIndex of agricultural production, total, 1970-90Index of agricultural production, per capita,1970-90Index of food production, total, 1970-90Index of food production, per capita, 1970-90Production of cereals, 1971-90Area harvested for cereals, 1971-90Production of roots and tubers, 1971-90Area harvested for roots and tubers, 1971-90Total cropland area, 1970-89Total irrigated land, 1970-89Total fertilizers consumed, 1970-89Total tractors in use, 1970-89Total harvesters in use, 1970-89Total number of cattle, 1971-90Total number of sheep, 1971-90Total number of goats, 1971-90Total number of pigs, 1971-90Total number of horses, 1971-90Total number of mules, 1971-90Total number of asses, 1971-90Total number of buffaloes, 1971-90Total number of camels, 1971-90Total number of chickens, 1971-90Grain fed to livestockTotal cereal imports, 1970-89Total cereal exports, 1970-89Total pulse imports, 1970-89Total pulse exports, 1970-89Total edible oil imports, 1970-89Total edible oil exports, 1970-89Total cereal donationsTotal cereal receiptsTotal edible oil donationsTotal edible oil receiptsTotal milk donationsTotal milk receiptsTotal cereal aidTotal cereal aid from CanadaTotal cereal aid from USATotal cereal aid from JapanTotal cereal aid from ECTotal cereal aid from othersTotal arid land areaTotal semiarid land areaTotal humid land areaTotal land area with no inherent soil constraintsArid land area with no inherent soil constraintsSemiarid land area with no inherent soilconstraintsHumid land area with no inherent soil constraintsCold land area with no inherent soil constraintsTotal tropical land areaTotal subtropical land areaTotal temperate land areaForests and RangelandsExtent of closed forestExtent of open forestExtent of plantationExtent of other wooded areaAverage annual deforestation, closed forestAverage annual deforestation, total forestAverage annual reforestationExtent of managed closed forestExtent of protected closed forestRoundwood production, total, 1970-89Fuel and charcoal, production, 1970-89Industrial roundwood, production, 1970-89Sawn wood, production, 1970-89Panels, production, 1970-89Paper, production, 1970-89Net trade, roundwood, 1970-89Exports, roundwood, 1970-89Imports, roundwood, 1970-89Soil degradation—total area, by region *Soil degradation—degraded area as percent ofvegetated land, by region *Soil degradation—totalarea affected by watererosion, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected by waterinduced topsoil loss, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected by waterinduced terrain deformation, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected by winderosion, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected by windinduced topsoil loss, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected by windinduced terrain deformation, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected Dyoverblowing, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected by chemicaldegradation, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected by nutrientloss, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected bysalinization, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected by pollution,by region *Soil degradation—total area affected byacidification, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected by physicaldegradation, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected bycompaction, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected bywaterlogging, by region *Soil degradation—total area affected bysubsidence of organic soils, by region *Undegraded area classified as permanentagriculture and stabilized terrain, by region *Undegraded area classified as natural area, byregion *Undegraded area classified as nonvegetated land,by region *Soil degradation—total area degraded byvegetation removal *Soil degradation—total area degraded byoverexploitation *Soil degradation—total area degraded byovergrazing *Soil degradation—total area degraded byagricultural activities *World Resources 1992-93381

Soil degradation—total area degraded byindustrial and bioindustrial activities *Wildlife and HabitatNumber of IUCN category I-V protected areasTotal area under IUCN category I-V protectionNumber of IUCN category 1-IIi protected areasTotal area under IUCN category I-III protectionNumber of IUCN category IV and V protectedareasTotal area under IUCN category IV and VprotectionNumber of protected marine and coastal areasTotal marine and coastal area protectedNumber of biosphere reservesTotal area protected as biosphere reservesNumber of natural and mixed natural/culturalheritage sitesNumber of wetlands of international importanceTotal area protected as wetlands of internationalimportancePercent of CITES reporting requirement metNumber of live primates importedNumber of live primates exportedNumber of cat sldns importedNumber of cat skins exportedNumber of live parrots importedNumber of live parrots exportedNumber of reptile skins importedNumber of reptile skins exportedNumber of live cacti importedNumber of live cacti exportedNumber of live orchids importedNumber of live orchids exportedNumber of known mammal speciesNumber of threatened mammal speciesThreatened mammal species per 10,000 square kmNumber of known bird speciesNumber of threatened bird speciesThreatened bird species per 10,000 square kmNumber of amphibian speciesNumber of threatened amphibian speciesThreatened amphibian species per 10,000 squarekmNumber of freshwater fish speciesNumber of threatened freshwater fish speciesNumber of plant taxaEndemic flora as a percentage of totalRare and threatened plant taxa per 1,000 existingtaxaRare and threatened plant taxa per 10,000 squarekmNumber of botanical gardensNumber of botanical gardens that are BCGImembersEnergy and MaterialsCommercial energy production, total, 1970-89Commercial energy production, solid fuel,1970-89Commercial energy production, liquid fuel,1970-89Commercial energy production, gaseous fuel,1970-89Commercial energy production, geothermal andwind, 1970-89Commercial energy production, hydro, 1970-89Commercial energy production, nuclear, 1970-89Commercial energy consumption, total, 1970-89Commercial energy consumption per capitaCommercial energy consumption per constant1987 U.S. dollars of GNPImports as percentage of consumption, 1970-89Energy requirements in conventional fuelequivalent, totalEnergy requirements in conventional fuelequivalent per capitaEnergy requirements in conventional fuelequivalent per constant 1987 U.S. dollars of GNPTraditional fuels consumption, 1970-89Traditional fuels as percentage of totalrequirementsPercentage of commercial energy used, industry,1971-89Percentage of commercial energy used, transport,1971-89Percentage of commercial energy used,agriculture, 1971-89Percentage of commercial energy used,commercial, 1971-89Percentage of commercial energy used,residential, 1971-89Percentage of commercial energy used, other,1971-89Energy intensity, industryEnergy intensity, agricultureAnnual municipal waste generation, totalAnnual municipal waste generation, per capitaComposition of municipal waste, paper, andcardboardComposition of municipal waste, plasticComposition of municipal waste, glassComposition of municipal waste, metalsComposition of municipal waste, organic aspercentage of inorganicDisposal or municipal waste, landfillDisposal of municipal waste, total incinerationDisposal of municipal waste, incineration withenergy recoveryDisposal of municipal waste, otherProduction, bauxiteConsumption, aluminumProduction, cadmiumConsumption, cadmiumProduction, copperConsumption, copperProduction, leadConsumption, leadProduction, mercuryConsumption, mercuryProduction, nickelConsumption, nickelProduction, tinConsumption, tinProduction, zincConsumption, zincProduction, iron oreConsumption, iron oreProduction, steel crudeConsumption, steel crudeReserves, copperReserves, leaaReserves, tinReserves, zincReserves, iron oreReserves, manganeseReserves, nickelReserves, chromiumReserves, cobaltReserves, molybdenumReserves, tungstenReserves, vanadiumReserves, bauxiteReserves, titaniumReserves, lithiumMetal reserves indexFreshwaterAnnual internal renewable water resources—totalAnnual internal renewable water resources—percapitaAnnual river flows from other countriesAnnual river flows to other countriesYear of data: annual withdrawalAnnual withdrawal—totalAnnual withdrawal—percentage of waterresourcesAnnual withdrawal per capitaSectoral withdrawal—domesticSectoral withdrawal—industrySectoral withdrawal—agricultureNumber of large dams over 15 meters in height(1977 and 1986)Number of large dams over 30 meters in heightNumber of large dams under constructionGross theoretical hydropower potentialExploitable hydropower potentialTotal installed hydropower capacityInstalled microhydro hydropower capacityTotal hydropower generationHydropower generation as a percentage ofcapacityOceans and CoastsLength of coastlineMaritime area—shelf to 200 meter depthMaritime area—exclusive economic zonePercentage of urban population in large coastalcitiesGoods loaded—crude petroleumGoods unloaded—crude petroleumGoods loaded—-petroleum productsGoods unloadecf—petroleum productsGoods loaded—dry cargoGoods unloaded^dry cargoOffshore annual production—oil (1980 and 1990)Offshore annual production—gas (1980 and 1990)Offshore proven reserves—oilOffshore proven reserves—gasAverage annual marine catch, by region, 1970-89Average annual freshwater catch, 1970-89Average annual aquaculture production—freshwater fishAverage annual aquaculture production—diadromous fishAverage annual aquaculture production—marinefishAverage annual aquaculture production—crustaceansAverage annual aquaculture production—molluscsAverage annual aquaculture production—totalfish and shellfishAverage annual aquaculture production—otherTotal average annual food supply from fish andfishery productsPer capita average annual food supply from fishand fishery productsAtmosphere and ClimateCarbon dioxide emissions from industrialsources—solid fuels, 1970-89Carbon dioxide emissions from industrialsources—liquid fuels, 1970-89Carbon dioxide emissions from industrialsources—gas fuels, 1970-89Carbon dioxide emissions from industrialsources—cement manufacture, 1970-89Total carbon dioxide emissions from industrialsources, 1970-89Carbon dioxide emissions from deforestationMethane emissions from solid wasteMethane emissions from coal miningMethane emissions from oil and gas productionMethane emissions from wet rice agricultureMethane emissions from livestockTotal methane emissionsTotal emissions of chlorofluorocarbonsAtmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—carbon dioxide, 1959-90Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—carbon tetrachloride,1975-90Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—methyl chloroform,1975-90Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—CFC11,1975-90Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—CFC12,1975-90Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—CFC22,1979-88Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—CFC113,1983-90Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—total gaseous chlorine,1975-90Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—nitrous oxide, 1975-88Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—methane, 1965-90Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse andozone depleting gases—carbon monoxide,1981-86382World Resources 1992-93

ELUThe World Resources Institute (WRI) is a research andpolicy institute helping governments, the private sector,environmental and development organizations,and others address a fundamental question: How cansocieties meet human needs and nurture economicgrowth without destroying the natural resources andenvironmental integrity that make prosperity possible?Through its policy studies, WRI aims to generate accurateinformation about global resources and environmentalconditions, analyze emerging issues, anddevelop creative yet workable policy responses. Inseeking to deepen public understanding, it publishes avariety of reports and papers; undertakes briefings,seminars, and conferences; and offers material for usein the press and on the air.In developing countries, WRI provides technical support,policy analysis, and other services for governmentsand nongovernmental organizations that aretrying to manage natural resources sustainably.A central task of WRI is to build bridges betweenscholarship and action, bringing the insights of scientificresearch, economic analysis, and practical experienceto the attention of policymakers and other leadersaround the world.WRI's projects are now directed at two principal concerns:• The effects of natural resources deterioration on economicdevelopment and on the alleviation of povertyand hunger in developing countries; and• The new generation of globally important environmentaland resource problems that threaten the economicand environmental interests of all the nations ofthe world.WRI is an independent, not-for-profit corporationthat receives its financial support from private foundationsand corporations, governmental and intergovernmentalinstitutions, and interested individuals.WRI is currently carrying out policy research in sixmajor areas: Climate, Energy, and Pollution; Forestsand Biodiversity; Economics; Technology; Resourceand Environmental Information; and Institutions.In developing countries, WRI's Center for InternationalDevelopment and Environment provides policyadvice, technical assistance and other supporting servicesto governments, nongovernmental organizationsand local groups charged with managing natural resourcesand economic development.World Resources Institute1709 New York Avenue, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20006 U.S.A.WRI's Board of Directors:Matthew Nimetz, ChairmanRoger Sant, Vice ChairmanJohn H. AdamsRobert O. AndersonRobert O. BlakeJohn E. BrysonJohn E. CantlonPamela G. CarltonWard B. ChamberlinRichard M. ClarkeEdwin C. CohenLouisa C. DuemlingAlice F. EmersonJohn FirorCynthia R. HelmsCurtis A. HesslerMartin HoldgateThomas E. LovejoyC. Payne LucasAlan R. McFarland, Jr.Robert S. McNamaraScott McVayPaulo Nogueira-NetoThomas R. OdhiamboSaburo OkitaRonald L. OlsonRuth PatrickAlfred M. Rankin, Jr.James Gustave SpethM.S. SwaminathanMostafa K. TolbaRussell E. TrainAlvaro UmaftaVictor L. UrquidiGeorge M. Wood wellOfficers:James Gustave Speth, PresidentJ. Alan Brewster, Senior Vice President andDirector of Administration and FinanceJessica T. Mathews, Vice PresidentWalter V. Reid, Vice President for ProgramRobert C. Repetto, Vice President and Senior EconomistDonna W. Wise, Vice President for Policy AffairsWallace D. Bowman, Secretary and TreasurerWorld Resources 1992-93383

United Nations Environment ProgrammeP.O. Box 30552Nairobi, KenyaExecutive DirectorMostafa K. TolbaDeputy Executive DirectorWilliam H. Mansfield IIIRegional and Liaison OfficesLatin America and the Caribbean:UNEP Regional Office for Latin America and CaribbeanEdificio de Naciones UnidasPresidente Mazaryk 29Apartado Postal 6-718Mexico 5, D.F., MexicoWest Asia:UNEP Regional Office for West Asia1083 Road No. 425Jufair 342P.O. Box 26814Manama, BahrainAsia and the Pacific:(UNEP Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific)United Nations BuildingRajadamnern AvenueBangkok 10200 ThailandEurope:UNEP Regional Office for EuropePalais des NationsCH-1211 Geneva 10, SwitzerlandAfrica:UNEP Regional Office for AfricaUNEP HeadquartersP.O. Box 30552Nairobi, KenyaNew York:UNEP Liaison OfficeUNDC Two BuildingRoom 0803Two, United Nations PlazaNew York, New York 10017 U.S.A.Washington:UNEP Liaison OfficeGround Floor1889 F Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20006 U.S.AThe United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)was established in 1972 and given by the United NationsGeneral Assembly a broad and challenging mandate tostimulate, coordinate, and provide policy guidance forsound environmental action throughout the world. Initialimpetus for UNEP's formation came out of the largelynongovernmental and antipollution lobby in industrializedcountries. This interest in pollutants remains, butright from the early years, as perceptions of environmentalproblems broadened to encompass those arising fromthe misuse and abuse of renewable natural resources, thepromotion of environmentally sound or sustainable developmentbecame a main purpose of UNEP.From the global headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya, andseven regional and liaison offices worldwide, UNEP'sstaff of some 200 scientists, lawyers, administrators, andinformation specialists carry out UNEP's program, whichis laid down and revised every two years by a GoverningCouncil of representatives from its 58 member states.These members are elected on a staggered basis for threeyears by the United Nations General Assembly.Broadly, this program aims to stimulate research intomajor environmental problems, promote environmentallysound management at both national and internationallevels by encouraging the application of researchresults, and make such actions and findings known to thepublic—from scientists and policymakers to industrialistsand school children.By the terms of its mandate, UNEP runs its program incooperation with numerous other United Nations agencies,governments, intergovernmental organizations, andnongovernmental organizations. Its main concerns areclimate change, pollution, water resources, desertificationcontrol, forests, oceans, and regional seas' biological diversity,human settlements, renewable sources of energy,environmentally sound management of industry, toxicchemicals, and international environmental lawmaking.The essential base for environmentally sound managementis provided by UNEP's work on the monitoring andassessment of the state and trends of the global environment.This is carried out in conjunction with agency partners,through the Global Environment MonitoringSystem (GEMS). The Global Resource InformationDatabase (GRID) stores and analyzes geographically referencedenvironmental and resource data, and providesthe essential link between monitoring and assessmentand sound environmental management by putting informationin forms useful to planners and managers.GEMS, the Geneva based International Register of PotentiallyToxic Chemicals, and INFOTERRA provide boththe international community and individual countriesand organizations with the vital environmental informationthey need to take action.384World Resources 1992-93

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) isthe world's largest multilateral source of grant fundingfor development cooperation. It was created in 1965through a merger of two predecessor programs forUnited Nations technical cooperation. Its funds, whichtotal $1.5 billion for 1991, come from the yearly voluntarycontributions of member states of the United Nations orits affiliated agencies. A 48-nation Governing Councilcomposed of both developed and developing countriesapproves major programs and policy decisions.Through a network of offices in 114 developing countries,and in cooperation with over 30 international and regionalagencies, UNDP works with 152 governments topromote higher standards of living, faster economicgrowth, and environmentally sound development. Currently,it is providing financial and technical support forover 6,000 projects designed to build governments' managementcapacities, train human resources, and transfertechnology. These projects cover such fields as agriculture,forestry, land reclamation, water supply, environmentalsanitation, energy, meteorology, industry,education, transport, communications, public administration,health, housing, trade, and development finance.Currently, projects valued at approximately $500 millionare targeted on activities concerned with environmentalaspects of development.All UNDP-supported activities emphasize the permanentenhancement of self-reliant, sustainable development.Projects are therefore designed to:• Survey, assess, and promote the effective management ofnatural resources; industrial, commercial, and export potentials;and other development assets.• Stimulate capital investments to help realize these possibilities.• Train people in a wide range of vocational and professionalskills.• Transfer appropriate technologies that respect and enhancethe environment and stimulate the growth of localtechnological capabilities.• Foster economic and social development, with particularemphasis on meeting the needs of the poorest segmentsof the population.In each developing country, UNDP also plays the chiefcoordinating role for operational development activitiesundertaken by the whole United Nations system. Globally,UNDP has been assigned numerous coordinatingroles—from administering special-purpose funds such asthose entrusted to the United Nations Sudano-SahelianOffice, to chairing the interagency steering committee ofthe International Drinking Water and Supply and SanitationDecade. It also focuses on bringing women morefully into the process, fostering participatory grassrootsdevelopment, and encouraging entrepreneurship.United Nations Development Programme1 U.N. PlazaNew York, New York 10017 U.S.A.AdministratorWilliam H. Draper IIIAssociate AdministratorLuis Maria GomezBureau for Programmes and PoliciesAssistant Administrator and DirectorGus EdgrenRegional Bureau for Asia and the PacificAssistant Administrator and DirectorKrishan G. SinghRegional Bureau for Arab States and EuropeAssistant Administrator and DirectorAli A. AttigaRegional Bureau for Latin America and the CaribbeanAssistant Administrator and DirectorFernando ZumbadoRegional Bureau for AfricaOfficer-in- ChargeGarth ap ReesBureau for External RelationsAssistant Administrator and DirectorAldo AjelloOffice for Project ServiceAssistant Administrator and DirectorDaan EvertsWorld Resources 1992-93385

EssentialData for 146CountriesBasic EconomicIndicators DataLand Cover andSettlements Data'World Resources is fascinating reading.It is an indispensable guide toall those whose decisions impact on theworld's natural resource systems."Maurice F. Strong,Secretary General, 1992United NationsConference on Environmentand Development"An unparalleled educational resource for today'sstudents. Whatever you needto knowabout the global environment can mostlikely be found in this book."Gilbert Grosvenor,President, NationalGeographic SocietyPopulation andHumanDevelopment DataFood andAgriculture DataForests andRangelandsDataWildlife andHabitats DataEnergy andMaterials DataFreshwaterDataOceans andCoasts Data"World Resources is a uniquely valuablesource of data and ideas for addressing thenatural resource and environmentalproblems of the developing world."Alvaro Umana,former Minister of NaturalResources, Energy, and Mines,Costa Rica"World Resources performs a valuableservice for government leaders,policymakers, corporations, and citizens'organizations around the world."William D. Ruckelshaus,Chief Executive Officer,Browning-Ferris Industries"Ifyou like almanacs and have even a passinginterest in the environment, you'll love thisbook. And ifyou're a student, a teacher, or anactivist, you won 'tbe able to do without it."San Francisco Chronicle90000>Atmosphere andClimate DataPolicies andInstitutions Data9 780195 062311IISBN D-n-5Dt531-D|