SUNDAY PROGRAMKnowledge Sources and Foreign Investment Location in the USWilbur Chung, University <strong>of</strong> Pennsylvania, wcchung@wharton.upenn.eduJuan Alcacer, New York University, jalcacer@stern.nyu.eduRecent research demonstrates that firms, motivated by differences in nations' technical capabilities, expand abroad to seekknowledge. Unclear is what knowledge it is that these firms are seeking and how firms' preference for knowledge varieswith their own technical capabilities. We investigate the attractiveness <strong>of</strong> industry, academic, and government knowledgesources using locations' stock <strong>of</strong> patent counts. We use both broad and finer grained counts along industry and geographicdimensions. For foreign entrants in the US from 1987-1993, we find that foreign firms are attracted primarily to locationsrich with industry patents. Interestingly, lagging tecknical firms are more attracted to academia while leading firms findgovernment research more desirable. This suggests that laggards catch up using academia while leaders look to governmentresearch to support their lead.Determinants <strong>of</strong> cross-national knowledge sourcing and its effect on firm innovationMasaaki Kotabe, Temple University, mkotabe@sbm.temple.eduHarsh A. Mishra, <strong>State</strong> University <strong>of</strong> New York, mishrah@newpaltz.eduDenise Dunlap-Hinkler, Temple University, ddunlap@temple.eduThis study examines the determinants <strong>of</strong> international knowledge flow. From a learning perspective, it evaluates the impact<strong>of</strong> cross-national knowledge sourcing on firm innovative performance. In a sample <strong>of</strong> 53 U.S. pharmaceutical firms, usingU.S. patent based pooled data, the results suggest that innovative performance is a curvilinear function <strong>of</strong> the internationalknowledge content used by a firm to innovate. As hypothesized, it was found that at (1) low and moderate levels <strong>of</strong>international knowledge content, a firm's strategy to source international knowledge improves its innovative performanceand at (2) higher levels <strong>of</strong> international knowledge content, there are diminishing marginal returns to sourcing knowledgefrom overseas.Technology Sourcing by Foreign-owned MNEs in Germany — An analysis using patent citationsJohn Cantwell, Rutgers University, Cantwell@rbs.rutgers.eduCamilla Noonan, University College Dublin, Camilla.noonan@ucd.ieThis paper presents a preliminary examination <strong>of</strong> technology sourcing and knowledge localisation in the context <strong>of</strong>Germany. We use US patent citation data to examine the technology sourcing activities <strong>of</strong> foreign-owned multinationalfirms located in Germany over the 1975-1995 period. Particular attention is given to the age pr<strong>of</strong>ile, the home-baseaugmenting/exploiting characteristics <strong>of</strong> such activity and the degree to which local sourcing might be deemed regionallybounded. While regionally bounded activity is seen to depend upon the technological specialisation <strong>of</strong> foreign firms, astrong relationship exists between the technological specialisation <strong>of</strong> the indigenous sector and inter-regional sourcing byforeign firms.AIB 2003 - Monterey, California, USA July 5-8, 2003 33
SUNDAY PROGRAMSession 1.2.4 - Track 3 - COMPETITIVE<strong>International</strong> FinanceRoom: Big Sur 3Time: 3:30-5:00 p.m.Chair: Paul M. Vaaler, Tufts University, paul.vaaler@tufts.eduDiscussant: J. Jay Choi, Temple University, jay.choi@temple.eduDemocratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political <strong>Business</strong> Cycle Effects onSovereign Ratings in Developing CountriesPaul M. Vaaler, Tufts University, paul.vaaler@tufts.eduSteven Block, Tufts University, steven.block@tufts.eduBurkhard N. Schrage, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, bschrage@web.deThough traditionally used to explain election-period interactions between incumbent politicians and voters, PBC theory hasrecently found application with non-voting business and financial actors concerned with risks associated with electionperiodeconomic policies in nascent democracies <strong>of</strong> the developing world. We use PBC considerations to develop aframework to explain election-period risk assessments made by major credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishingsovereign risk ratings for developing countries. Testing framework predictions with 482 agency ratings for 19 countriesholding 39 presidential elections from 1987-2000, we find overall that agencies assess a risk premium on developingcountries where the partisan orientation <strong>of</strong> candidates likely to win elections will lead to economic policies underminingsovereign financial commitments (i.e., left-wing victories leading to higher-inflation, deficits and possible debtrepudiation). Downgrades are greater as agency expectations <strong>of</strong> right-wing (left-wing) re-election (ouster) decrease.Rating changes for right-wing (left-wing) incumbents are larger (smaller) in absolute magnitude due to the reinforcing(counteracting) effect <strong>of</strong> various PBC considerations. PBC considerations improve our understanding <strong>of</strong> risk assessmentand risk-related behavior by agencies and, perhaps, other business and financial actors potentially affected by factorsrelated to individual elections and or to the broader trend <strong>of</strong> democratization in the developing world.The value <strong>of</strong> real options investments under abnormal uncertainty: The case <strong>of</strong> the Korean economic crisisSeung-Hyun Lee, University <strong>of</strong> Texas at Dallas, Lee.1085@utdallas.eduMona Makhija, The Ohio <strong>State</strong> University, makhija_2@cob.osu.eduReal options investments are expected to take their greatest value during periods <strong>of</strong> abnormally high uncertainty. Yet, thisimportant proposition <strong>of</strong> real options is empirically difficult to test, since one cannot readily find such well-definedunanticipated periods affecting large numbers <strong>of</strong> firms. We attempt to address this problem in the real options literature inthis research by focusing on the case <strong>of</strong> Korean firms during the recent Korean economic crisis in 1998. The largelyunanticipated nature <strong>of</strong> this Korean economic crisis, along with its highly uncertain implications, created the conditions <strong>of</strong> a"natural experiment" for investigating this issue. Our findings support the notion that real options investments provide valueboth in themselves, and relative to those investments made by peers within their industry. We also find support for thenotion that the value <strong>of</strong> real options varies with the level <strong>of</strong> uncertainty faced by the firm.The real options value <strong>of</strong> international investments by Korean firmsSeung-Hyun Lee, University <strong>of</strong> Texas at Dallas, Lee.1085@utdallas.eduMona Makhija, The Ohio <strong>State</strong> University, makhija_2@cob.osu.edu<strong>International</strong> investments provide firms with important real options that allow them to gain strategic flexibility duringperiods <strong>of</strong> uncertainty. While firms' international investments include those relating to exporting capability as well asforeign productive capability (i.e., FDI), prior empirical work has focused overwhelmingly on only FDI. Since exports andFDI may have overlapping as well as synergistic characteristics, we investigate several hypotheses comparing the realoptions value <strong>of</strong> both types <strong>of</strong> investments for Korean firms in the highly uncertain period <strong>of</strong> the recent Asian economiccrisis. We find evidence that firms' values during the crisis were consistent with the differential real options values <strong>of</strong> apriori export and FDI investments made by these firms. We further find important differences in the real options value <strong>of</strong>such investments made by firms imbedded in a closed network and those in embedded in an open network.AIB 2003 - Monterey, California, USA July 5-8, 2003 34
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Pangarkar, Nitin 1.1.1, 2.3.1, 3.8.