C O N T E N T S - Physical Land Resources - Vrije Universiteit Brussel

PHYLARES MSc. ThesesAcademic Year 2006-2007ADHIKARI SurendraNumerical Modelling of Historical Front Variations and the 21 st CenturyEvolution of Glacier AX010, Nepal HimalayaPromotor: P. HuybrechtsDue to the lack of baseline data, model-based studies of glacier systems in the NepalHimalayas are very limited. Here a numerical ice flow model has been developed forGlacier AX010 in order to study its relation with climate for investigating the possiblecauses that might explain the general retreat of the glacier since the end of the LittleIce Age. A basic sensitivity experiment has first been conducted in order to investigatethe length response time of the glacier. An attempt is then made to simulate thehistorical front variations. These simulations reveal that the glacier history can be solelyexplained by the temperature anomaly, but not by the precipitation anomaly. The verygood agreement between the observed and the simulated front positions as solelydefined by the temperature forcing has permitted us to project the future behaviour ofthe glacier under various 21st century climate scenarios. Under a no-change scenario,the glacier will retreat ~600 m by 2100 AD; whereas the glacier is projected to vanishcompletely within this century for all trends with a temperature rise. For a constantprecipitation, the model predicts that the glacier will not exist anymore after 2083,2056 and 2049 AD if the temperature will linearly rise to +3°C, +4.5°C and +6°C by2100 AD. For a range of precipitation change (-30% to +30%), the glacier will meltentirely within the range of 18, 6 and 2 years for the temperature rise of +3°C, +4.5°Cand +6°C, respectively. This means that the role of the precipitation becomes minimalfor the higher trends of temperature rise.ESAIFAN MuayadStabilization of Jordanian Soils for Water Harvesting PurposesPromotor: J. WastielsMineral polymerization technique is a new method used to stabilize the soil for- 30 -