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January 2008 - Hovde Capital Advisors LLC

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PROPRIETARY INDEX VALUATIONSBank and Thrift Index ValuationsNew EnglandMid AtlanticSoutheasternMidwesternSouthwesternWesternPrice / Earnings Price / Book Value Price / TBV Price Performance ComponentCompaniesWeighted Avg Median Weighted Avg Median Weighted Avg Median 1 Mo YTD 12 MoBank 15.5 14.2 167% 132% 285% 164% 1.6% 1.6% -10.8% 21Thrift 24.3 23.8 109% 107% 128% 124% 0.9% 0.9% -16.7% 22Bank 14.8 14.6 143% 135% 126% 153% 4.3% 4.3% -17.3% 90Thrift 17.6 22.6 142% 127% 215% 141% 4.9% 4.9% -16.2% 56Bank 11.6 14.1 120% 113% 194% 141% 3.3% 3.3% -27.7% 135Thrift 25.6 27.0 78% 87% 100% 106% 3.7% 3.7% -39.9% 13Bank 10.7 14.3 184% 121% 236% 157% 3.1% 3.1% -19.5% 90Thrift 20.4 17.9 153% 99% 159% 110% 2.0% 2.0% -20.2% 47Bank 19.6 15.4 160% 156% 249% 223% 2.2% 2.2% -18.4% 19Thrift 24.8 17.1 116% 122% 132% 126% 5.9% 5.9% -23.4% 6Bank 16.4 13.1 160% 137% 141% 164% -1.1% -1.1% -33.8% 69Thrift 12.1 18.4 90% 88% 78% 87% 12.1% 12.1% -36.2% 15Index Valuations30.0Price / Tangible Book ValuePrice / Earnings250%25.020.015.010.05.0200%150%100%50%0.0New EnglandBankNew EnglandThirftMid AtlanticBankMid AtlanticThriftSoutheasternBankSoutheasternThriftMidwesternBankMidwesternThriftSouthwesternBankSouthwesternThriftWesternBankWesternThrift0%YTD Price Performance14.0%New EnglandBankNew EnglandThirftMid AtlanticBankMid AtlanticThriftSoutheasternBankSoutheasternThriftMidwesternBankMidwesternThriftSouthwesternBankSouthwesternThriftWesternBankWesternThrift12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%source: SNL Financial and Bloomberg, <strong>LLC</strong>3


ECONOMIC DATA REVIEWEconomic Data Points - <strong>January</strong> <strong>2008</strong>Date Event Period Survey Actual Prior Date Event Period Survey Actual Prior1/2 ISM Manufacturing DEC 50.5 47.7 50.8 1/16 Consumer Price Index (YoY) DEC 4.10% 4.10% 4.30%1/2 ISM Prices Paid DEC 65 68 67.5 1/16 CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) DEC 2.40% 2.40% 2.30%1/2 Construction Spending MoM NOV -0.40% 0.10% -0.80% 1/16 CPI Core Index SA DEC - - 213.148 212.6331/2 Minutes of December 11 FOMC Meeting1/16 Consumer Price Index NSA DEC 210.086 210.036 210.1771/3 Challenger Job Cuts YoY DEC - - -18.70% -4.70% 1/16 Industrial Production DEC -0.20% 0.00% 0.30%1/3 ADP Employment Change DEC 33K 40K 189K 1/16 Capacity Utilization DEC 81.20% 81.40% 81.50%1/3 Factory Orders NOV 0.50% 1.50% 0.50% 1/16 NAHB Housing Market Index JAN 19 19 191/3 Total Vehicle Sales DEC 16.0M 16.3M 16.2M 1/17 Housing Starts DEC 1145K 1006K 1187K1/3 Domestic Vehicle Sales DEC 12.2M 12.5M 12.4M 1/17 Building Permits DEC 1135K 1068K 1152K1/4 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls DEC 70K 18K 94K 1/22 FOMC Inter-meeting Rate Cut 22-Jan - - 3.50% 4.25%1/4 Unemployment Rate DEC 4.80% 5.00% 4.70% 1/24 Existing Home Sales DEC 4.95M 4.89M 5.00M1/4 Change in Manufact. Payrolls DEC -15K -31K -11K 1/24 Existing Home Sales MoM DEC -1.00% -2.20% 0.40%1/4 ISM Non-Manufacturing DEC 53.5 53.9 54.1 1/28 New Home Sales DEC 647K 604K 647K1/8 Pending Hom Sales MoM NOV -0.70% -2.60% 0.60% 1/28 New Home Sales MoM DEC 0.00% -4.70% -9.00%1/8 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JAN 43 43.2 44.4 1/29 Durable Goods Orders DEC 1.60% 5.20% 0.10%1/8 Consumer Credit NOV $8.0B $15.4B $4.7B 1/29 Durables Ex Transportation DEC 0.10% 2.60% -0.70%1/10 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY DEC - - 0.90% 3.50% 1/29 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY NOV -7.10% -7.70% -6.10%1/11 Trade Balance NOV -$59.5B -$63.1B -$57.8B 1/29 S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index NOV - - 188.8 192.91/11 Import Price Index (MoM) DEC 0.10% 0.00% 2.70% 1/30 ADP Employment Change JAN 40K 130K 40K1/11 Import Price Index (YoY) DEC 10.50% 10.90% 11.40% 1/30 GDP Annualized 4Q A 1.20% 0.60% 4.90%1/11 Monthly Budget Statement DEC $50.0B $48.3B $42.0B 1/30 Personal Consumption 4Q A 2.60% 2.00% 2.80%1/15 Producer Price Index (MoM) DEC 0.20% -0.10% 3.20% 1/30 GDP Price Index 4Q A 2.60% 2.60% 1.00%1/15 PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) DEC 0.20% 0.20% 0.40% 1/30 Core PCE QoQ 4Q A 2.50% 2.70% 2.00%1/15 Producer Price Index (YoY) DEC 7.10% 6.30% 7.20% 1/30 FOMC Rate Decision 30-Jan 3.00% 3.00% 3.50%1/15 PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) DEC 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1/31 Personal Income DEC 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%1/15 Advance Retail Sales DEC 0.00% -0.40% 1.20% 1/31 Personal Spending DEC 0.10% 0.20% 1.10%1/15 Retail Sales Less Autos DEC -0.10% -0.40% 1.80% 1/31 PCE Deflator (YoY) DEC 3.50% 3.50% 3.60%1/15 Empire Manufacturing JAN 10 9 10.3 1/31 PCE Core (MoM) DEC 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%1/15 Business Inventories NOV 0.40% 0.40% 0.10% 1/31 PCE Core (YoY) DEC 2.20% 2.20% 2.20%1/16 Consumer Price Index (MoM) DEC 0.20% 0.30% 0.80% 1/31 Chicago Purchasing Manager JAN 52 51.5 56.61/16 CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) DEC 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%Economic Data Points - <strong>January</strong> <strong>2008</strong>source: Bloomberg, <strong>LLC</strong>Date Event Period Survey Actual Prior Date Event Period Survey Actual Prior2/1 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls JAN 70K -17K 18K 2/20 CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) JAN - - - - 0.20%2/1 Unemployment Rate JAN 5.00% 4.90% 5.00% 2/20 Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN - - - - 4.10%2/1 Change in Manufact. Payrolls JAN -20K -28K -31K 2/20 CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) JAN - - - - 2.40%2/1 Average Hourly Earnings MoM JAN 0.30% 0.20% 0.40% 2/20 Housing Starts JAN - - - - 1006K2/1 Average Hourly Earnings YoY JAN 3.90% 3.70% 3.70% 2/20 CPI Core Index SA JAN - - - - 213.1482/1 ISM Manufacturing JAN 47.3 50.7 47.7 2/20 Building Permits JAN - - - - 1068K2/1 ISM Prices Paid JAN 68 76 68 2/20 Consumer Price Index NSA JAN - - - - 210.0362/1 Construction Spending MoM DEC -0.50% -1.10% 0.10% 2/20 GDP Annualized Minutes of <strong>January</strong> 29-30 - -FOMC- Meeting -2/1 Total Vehicle Sales JAN 16.0M 15.2M 16.3M 2/21 Existing Home Sales JAN - - - - 4.89M2/1 Domestic Vehicle Sales JAN 12.3M 11.7M 12.5M 2/25 Existing Home Sales MoM JAN - - - - -2.20%2/4 Challenger Job Cuts YoY JAN - - 19.10% -18.70% 2/25 Producer Price Index (MoM) JAN - - - - -0.10%2/4 Factory Orders DEC 2.50% 2.30% 1.50% 2/26 PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) JAN - - - - 0.20%2/5 ISM Non-Manufact. Business JAN 53 - - 53.9 2/26 Producer Price Index (YoY) JAN - - - - 6.30%2/5 ISM Non-Manufact. Composite JAN 52.4 - - 53.2 2/26 PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) JAN - - - - 2.00%2/6 Nonfarm Productivity 4Q P 0.50% - - 6.30% 2/26 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index DEC - - - - 188.82/6 Unit Labor Costs 4Q P 3.50% - - -2.00% 2/26 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY DEC - - - - -7.70%2/7 Pending Home Sales MoM DEC -1.00% - - -2.60% 2/26 Consumer Confidence FEB - - - - 87.92/7 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY JAN 0.50% - - 0.90% 2/26 Durable Goods Orders JAN - - - - 5.20%2/7 Consumer Credit DEC $7.5B - - $15.4B 2/27 Durables Ex Transportation JAN - - - - 2.60%2/8 Wholesale Inventories DEC 0.30% - - 0.60% 2/27 New Home Sales JAN - - - - 604K2/13 Advance Retail Sales JAN 0.20% - - -0.40% 2/27 New Home Sales MoM JAN - - - - -4.70%2/13 Retail Sales Less Autos JAN 0.20% - - -0.40% 2/27 GDP Annualized 4Q P - - - - 0.60%2/13 Business Inventories DEC 0.40% - - 0.40% 2/28 Personal Consumption 4Q P - - - - 2.00%2/14 Trade Balance DEC -$60.7B - - -$63.1B 2/28 GDP Price Index 4Q P - - - - 2.60%2/15 Import Price Index (MoM) JAN 0.40% - - 0.00% 2/28 Core PCE QoQ 4Q P - - - - 2.70%2/15 Import Price Index (YoY) JAN - - - - 10.90% 2/28 Help Wanted Index JAN - - - - 222/15 Empire Manufacturing FEB 7.8 - - 9 2/28 Personal Income JAN - - - - 0.50%2/15 Industrial Production JAN 0.10% - - 0.00% 2/29 PCE Deflator (YoY) JAN - - - - 3.50%2/15 Capacity Utilization JAN 81.40% - - 81.40% 2/29 Personal Spending JAN - - - - 0.20%2/19 NAHB Housing Market Index FEB - - - - 19 2/29 PCE Core (MoM) JAN - - - - 0.20%2/20 Consumer Price Index (MoM) JAN - - - - 0.30% 2/29 PCE Core (YoY) JAN - - - - 2.20%source: Bloomberg, <strong>LLC</strong>4


MERGERS & ACQUISITIONSM&A Transaction UpdateAnnounced Transactions - <strong>January</strong> <strong>2008</strong>Deal Count - <strong>January</strong> <strong>2008</strong>in millionsBank & Thrift 12$4,500Insurance & Insurance Brokerage 35$4,000$4,286Specialty Finance 1$3,500Asset Management & Broker/Dealer 17$3,000source: SNL Financial, Bloomberg, Factiva$2,500$2,000Deal Count - <strong>2008</strong> YTD$1,500$1,000$500$0Bank &Thrift$1,357AssetManagement$612Insurance &Insurance Brokerage$SpecialtyFinanceBank & Thrift 12Insurance & Insurance Brokerage 35Specialty Finance 1Asset Management & Broker/Dealer 17source: Highline Data, Bloomberg, Factivasource: SNL Financial, Bloomberg, Factiva<strong>Hovde</strong> Financial Deal Alert<strong>Hovde</strong> Financial is pleased to announce that its client, 1 stChoice Bancorp, Inc., headquartered in Houston, Texas,and its wholly-owned subsidiary, 1 st Choice Bank, havesigned a definitive agreement to merge with ProsperityBancshares, Inc. of Houston, Texas (“Prosperity Bank”) ina 73% stock/27% cash transaction.As of December 31, 2007, 1 st Choice Bancorp, Inc. had$274 million in deposits in two branches in Houston,Texas. This transaction increases Prosperity’s deposits inthe Houston, TX MSA to nearly $2.3 billion, which willrepresent its largest single market in Texas. ProsperityBank is a large publicly-traded bank located throughoutTexas. Prosperity Bank has 137 branches with 1,359employees and has $6.4 billion in assets.Top Financial <strong>Advisors</strong> inBank and Thrift TransactionsLast Two Years, Sell-Side Advisory TransactionsRank Firm # of Deals1 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. 562 Sandler O’Neill & Partners, LP 523 <strong>Hovde</strong> Financial 454 Howe Barnes Hoefer & Arnett, Inc. 305 Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. 236 Sheshunoff & Co. Investment Banking LP 177 Goldman, Sachs & Co. 87 McAdams Wright Ragen, Inc. 87 RBC <strong>Capital</strong> Markets Corporation 87 SAMCO <strong>Capital</strong> Markets, Inc. 8source: SNL Financial (data from 1/30/2006 - 1/31/<strong>2008</strong>)5


MERGERS & ACQUISITIONSInsurance and Insurance Brokerage Transactions - <strong>January</strong> <strong>2008</strong>Buyer Target Announced DV ($MM)Britt Paulk Insurance Agency Inc. Magnum OPUS 1/01/<strong>2008</strong> NACretcher-Lynch & Company, Inc. Heartland Employee Benefits, <strong>LLC</strong> 1/01/<strong>2008</strong> NALTC Global Solutions, Inc. AMA Insurance Services Inc. 1/01/<strong>2008</strong> NAMOC Insurance Services Farallon Associates Insurance Brokers 1/01/<strong>2008</strong> NANorth American Group Minard-Ames Insurance Group 1/01/<strong>2008</strong> NAHCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. MultiNational Underwriters, <strong>LLC</strong> 1/02/<strong>2008</strong> NABrown & Brown, Inc. Turner & Associates Insurance Agency, Inc. 1/02/<strong>2008</strong> NAPremier Financial II, <strong>LLC</strong> ISU Insurance Services The May Agency 1/02/<strong>2008</strong> NAIronshore Inc. TIG Specialty Insurance Company 1/03/<strong>2008</strong> NAQBE Insurance Group Limited North Pointe Holdings Corporation 1/03/<strong>2008</strong> 145.8R.E. Chaix & Associates Insurance Brokers Inc. Katie Freeman Insurance Services Inc. 1/03/<strong>2008</strong> NALiberty Mutual Holding Company Inc. Vision Group 1/07/<strong>2008</strong> NAWhite Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Helicon Re Holdings, Ltd. 1/07/<strong>2008</strong> 150.0Hilb Rogal & Hobbs Company Integrated Group Benefits 1/07/<strong>2008</strong> NAHub International Limited Lenhardt Insurance Agency, Inc. 1/07/<strong>2008</strong> NASkelton & Carnegie Insurancce Specialty Corp. All Sure Company 1/07/<strong>2008</strong> NAUnitedHealth Group Incorporated Three Rivers Holdings, Inc. 1/08/<strong>2008</strong> NABeecher Carlson Holdings Inc. Alliance Insurance Group 1/08/<strong>2008</strong> NAEmployers Holdings, Inc. AmCOMP Incorporated 1/10/<strong>2008</strong> 194.3Financial Holding Corporation Financial Industries Corporation 1/14/<strong>2008</strong> 74.7Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Verlan Holdings, Inc. 1/14/<strong>2008</strong> NAWachovia Corporation Heritage Insurance Group, Inc. 1/14/<strong>2008</strong> NAThorbahn Associates Crosby Benefit Systems Inc. Insurance Division 1/15/<strong>2008</strong> NABB&T Corporation Savannah Reinsurance Underwriting Management <strong>LLC</strong> 1/16/<strong>2008</strong> NANorman Sencer McKernan, Inc. Pavement Maintenance Insurance Agency, Inc. 1/18/<strong>2008</strong> NABanco Bradesco S.A. Mediservice Administradora de Planos de Saude Ltda. 1/21/<strong>2008</strong> 47.5Brown & Brown, Inc. Smith-Peabody-Stiles Insurance Agency, Inc. 1/22/<strong>2008</strong> NABrown & Brown, Inc. Diversified Insurance Brokerage Group Inc. 1/23/<strong>2008</strong> NAAscension Insurance, Inc. Pan American Underwriters Inc. 1/24/<strong>2008</strong> NABarney & Barney <strong>LLC</strong> Saylor & Hill Company 1/24/<strong>2008</strong> NABrown & Brown, Inc. LDP Consulting Group, Inc. 1/25/<strong>2008</strong> NAAscension Insurance, Inc. Bryan Wharton & Associates 1/28/<strong>2008</strong> NAHilb Rogal & Hobbs Company Talty Insurance Agency, Inc. 1/29/<strong>2008</strong> NAFirst Manitowoc Bancorp, Inc. Insurance Associates of Green Bay, Inc. 1/30/<strong>2008</strong> NAArthur J. Gallagher & Co. Crist Elliott Machette Insurance Services Inc. 1/31/<strong>2008</strong> NAsource: Factiva, AM BestSpecialty Finance Transactions - <strong>January</strong> <strong>2008</strong>Buyer Target Announced DV ($MM)Crestmark Bancorp, Incorporated Commercial <strong>Capital</strong> Lending, L.L.C. 1/07/<strong>2008</strong> NAsource: Factiva, Bloomberg, ReutersAsset Management Transactions - <strong>January</strong> <strong>2008</strong>Buyer Target Announced DV ($MM)Kohlberg <strong>Capital</strong> Corporation Scott’s Cove <strong>Capital</strong> Management <strong>LLC</strong> 1/01/<strong>2008</strong> NATM <strong>Capital</strong> Corp. Boston Corporate Finance, Inc. 1/01/<strong>2008</strong> NAManagement group HSBC Wealth and Tax Advisory Services, Inc. 1/02/<strong>2008</strong> 65.9SunTrust Banks, Inc. Inlign Wealth Management, <strong>LLC</strong> 1/02/<strong>2008</strong> NASusquehanna Bancshares, Inc. Stratton Holding Company 1/02/<strong>2008</strong> 100.0Lightspeed Financial, <strong>LLC</strong> Integrity Trading, Inc. 1/02/<strong>2008</strong> NAHub International Limited JRN Benefits, Inc. 1/03/<strong>2008</strong> NARockwater Municipal <strong>Advisors</strong>, <strong>LLC</strong> Charles Fish Investments, Inc. 1/08/<strong>2008</strong> NATailwind Financial Inc. Asset Alliance Corporation 1/08/<strong>2008</strong> NABlackstone Group L.P. GSO <strong>Capital</strong> Partners LP 1/10/<strong>2008</strong> 930.0Banks.com, Inc. MyStockFund Securities, Inc. 1/10/<strong>2008</strong> NANYSE Euronext American Stock Exchange <strong>LLC</strong> 1/17/<strong>2008</strong> 260.0Undisclosed buyer Glen Rauch Securities, Inc. 1/24/<strong>2008</strong> NAFCStone Group, Inc. Jerrigan Group, <strong>LLC</strong> 1/25/<strong>2008</strong> NALa Caixa Banca Privada Morgan Stanley Wealth Management S.V., S.A.U. 1/28/<strong>2008</strong> NAWilmington Trust Corporation AST <strong>Capital</strong> Trust Company 1/30/<strong>2008</strong> NABroadpoint Securities Group, Inc. Bank of New York Mellon Fixed Income division 1/30/<strong>2008</strong> 0.9source: Factiva, Bloomberg7

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