<strong>Forest</strong> <strong>Resilience</strong>, <strong>Biodiversity</strong>, <strong>and</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>Table 3. Default biomass carbon values for major forest biomes, exclusive of soilcarbon.Source: Adapted from Keith et al. (in press, 2009) <strong>and</strong> compiled from IPCC (2006, 2003).<strong>Climate</strong> regionAboveground livingbiomass carbon (tCha -1 ) biome defaultvaluesRoot+dead biomasscarbon (tC ha -1 )biome defaultvaluesTotal living+deadbiomass carbon (tCha -1 ) biome defaultvaluesTropical wet 146 67 213TropicalTropical moist 112 30 142Tropical dry 73 32 105SubtropicalTemperateTropicalmontaneWarmtemperate moistWarmtemperate dryWarmtemperatemontaneCool temperatemoistCool temperatedryCool temperatemontane71 60 112108 63 17175 65 14069 63 132155 78 23359 62 12161 63 124Boreal moist 24 75 99BorealBoreal dry 8 52 60Boreal montane 21 55 7629
<strong>Forest</strong> <strong>Resilience</strong>, <strong>Biodiversity</strong>, <strong>and</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>5. Case-studies of forest resilience <strong>and</strong>comparisons under climate change byforest biome<strong>Forest</strong>s are all variously driven by disturbances,whether the disturbance is in the form of minorblowdown events at a scale of 150 years (IPCC 2007) largely as a result of fossilfuel burning (IPCC 2007). In addition to reducinganthropogenic CO 2 emissions, l<strong>and</strong> managers areassessing the potential to increase forest carbonsequestration <strong>and</strong> storage as a mitigation strategy.In theory, improvements in ecosystem managementshould allow forests to sequester more CO 2 asthe forest growth rate improves, <strong>and</strong> thus help tomitigate anthropogenic CO 2 emissions.Biological processes accelerate as air temperatureincreases. Increases in tree respiration <strong>and</strong>metabolism can shorten leaf retention time astemperature increases. Litter decomposition, soilnitrogen mineralization, <strong>and</strong> soil nitrification alsoincrease with increasing temperature (Mellio et al.1982), so climate change could significantly affectall of the biological functions of forests. Increasedair temperature is projected to increase fire risk <strong>and</strong>return interval (Dale et al. 2001). Episodic droughtwill favour more drought tolerant species over morewater dem<strong>and</strong>ing ones (Dale et al. 2001). Even if aforest remains intact (albeit with possible changesin the mix of dominant species), many functionalaspects of the forest <strong>and</strong> its goods <strong>and</strong> services arelikely to change. As the spatial scale increases, thepotential for climate change alterations in ecosystemstructure <strong>and</strong> function increases. Therefore, changesin water use <strong>and</strong> yield, <strong>and</strong> carbon storage in somesites, st<strong>and</strong>s or even watersheds may be highlyresilient to climate change, while bio/ecoregionallythese processes will almost assuredly be less resilient.Below we consider a set of case-studies that examinethe resilience of a sample of the world’s forests. Wehave selected the case-studies by major forest biome<strong>and</strong> assess resilience to current climate <strong>and</strong> thenormal disturbances in the system, <strong>and</strong> follow thisfor each by assessing the changes that are predictedto occur as a result of climate change. These studies,in one way or another, reflect the amount of change<strong>and</strong> the capacity of the ecosystem biodiversity tomaintain the system in the face of predicted effectsof climate change.5.1 Boreal forest biomeThe circumpolar boreal biome occurs across NorthAmerica, Europe <strong>and</strong> Asia <strong>and</strong> has 33% of the Earth’sforested area. Boreal forests are characterized bya small number of common tree species, any ofwhich may dominate over a vast area (Mooney et al.1996). Annual temperature ranges from -5 to 5 o Cwith annual precipitation ranging from 300-1500mm. The mean maximum of the warmest monthis 10 o C. <strong>Forest</strong>s in the boreal biome are relativelyyoung, assembling after the quaternary ice ages, <strong>and</strong>so may be +4-5 o C) <strong>and</strong> ‘stable’(+2-3 o C), Fischlin et al. (2009) <strong>and</strong> Sitch et al.(2003), reported predicted broad gains northwardfor boreal forest distribution, although withconversion of boreal forests to temperate forests<strong>and</strong> grassl<strong>and</strong>s at southern <strong>and</strong> central areas ofCanada <strong>and</strong> Russia. Soja et al. (2007) summarized30
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