MOVIE/ MINISERIES & REALITY ISSUE

American Horror StoryGreat ExpectationsFiveGame ChangeHemingway & GellhornAppropriate Adult The Hour LutherMAYBESAppropriate Adult (Sundance Channel)Case Histories (PBS)Five (Lifetime)Moby Dick (Encore)Neverland (Syfy)Scott Turow’s Innocent (TNT)The Song of Lunch (PBS)The Space Between (USA)LONG SHOTSBag of Bones (A&E)Birdsong (PBS)Certain Prey (USA)Drew Peterson: Untouchable (Lifetime)Firelight (ABC)Have a Little Faith (ABC)Magic Beyond Words: The J.K. Rowling Story (Lifetime)A Smile as Big as the Moon (ABC)Treasure Island (Syfy)Emmy Movie/Miniseries Title Bout:Will PBS K.O. HBO?By Michael Ausiello and Nellie AndreevaGame Change is more than just the name of the polarizing HBO picturethat’s the frontrunner to take home the 2012 Emmy in the now-mergedmovie/miniseries category, it’s also the underlying theme of the whole race.Until last year, when PBS’ Downton Abbey pulled off an upset, HBOprojects had taken the gold for nearly a decade. Suddenly, it seemed likeanything could happen – and it did. Downton’s move to the drama seriescategory makes the movie/mini derby an HBO-vs.-PBS free-for-all.Thanks to Game Change – as well as the marquee value of Hemingway &Gellhorn – the cable network would appear to have the edge. But there’sa growing sentiment that no potential nominee or winner is more deservingthan PBS’ Sherlock. For now, however, whether that stellar underdogwill score a nod, much less a win, remains a mystery. Another potentialspoiler: FX’s rookie anthology American Horror Story. And with itsrecord-shattering ratings, along with A-level stars in Kevin Costner andBill Paxton, History’s Hatfields & McCoys solidified its Emmy chances.Here’s our assessment of the field for this year’s made-for-television moviesand miniseries (in alphabetical order) and their stars:AMERICAN HORROR STORY (FX)It has been suggested that Ryan Murphy’s kinkyFX chiller should be competing as a drama series(like Downton Abbey this year), not a miniseries (likeDownton Abbey last year). But the anthological nature ofthe spookfest suggests that it is, in fact, right where itbelongs. In any case, in this less-crowded category, it’smuch likelier to be recognized with a nod. Ordinarily,prior nominees Dylan McDermott (a contender forThe Practice in 1999) and Connie Britton (up twice forFriday Night Lights) would stand a great chance of beingacknowledged as well. But the general consensus is thatif any cast member is going to be singled out, it’s goingto be scene-stealing Jessica Lange (herself a threetimenominee and a winner in 2009 for Grey Gardens,to say nothing of her Golden Globe and SAG Awardsfor American Horror Story).GAME CHANGE (HBO)HBO’s adaptation of John Heilemann and MarkHalperin’s book about the 2008 presidential electioncampaign wasn’t just the movie that had everyone –critics and viewers alike – talking this year, it was themovie that had everyone applauding. That is, with thepossible exception of would-be veep Sarah Palin,played here by Julianne Moore with such uncannyprecision – and at times discomfiting empathy – thatshe’s a shoo-in for a nomination, if not a win. Whoknew anyone could out-Palin Tina Fey? Besides itsleading lady, the movie itself is a lock for a nod, as areits director, Jay Roach (who won two Emmys in 2008for another political HBO movie, Recount) and co-starWoody Harrelson (a six-time Emmy nominee and avictor for Cheers back in 1989).GREAT EXPECTATIONS (PBS)As gloriously bleak as PBS’ adaptation of the CharlesDickens classic was, it flew mainly under the radar– with one notable exception: its Miss Havisham,Gillian Anderson. She was widely considered to betoo young to play the infamously horrific crone. But,given Emmy’s long love affair with the actress – she’sbeen nominated five times and won in 1997 for TheX-Files – it would be a mistake to count her out.HATFIELDS & McCOYS (History)History was poised to make a name for itself in thescripted television realm with last year’s controversialThe Kennedys … until that mini ended up premieringon ReelzChannel instead (It went on to receive 10Emmy nominations and win in four categories). Now,with its star-studded dramatization of the itchy-triggerfingeredfamilies’ feud, History is making another grabfor the brass ring – and for a certain golden statuette.Besides the mini itself, Costner as Devil Anse Hatfieldand Paxton as Randall McCoy look pretty good fornominations. So does Powers Boothe – an Emmywinner more than 30 years ago for Guyana Tragedy: TheStory of Jim Jones. The three-night miniseries no doubtvastly improved its chances by shattering the recordfor the highest rated entertainment telecast ever for anad-supported cable network with 14.3 million viewersin its third installment, and 13.9 million and 13.1million respectively for its second and first nights.HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN (HBO)Perhaps no movie or miniseries in the running thisyear is blessed with more name-in-lights allure thanHBO’s World War II-set drama about the rollercoasterromance of author Ernest Hemingway and his thirdwife, Martha Gellhorn. So it’s all but unthinkable thatthe stars who give the film its star power – Clive Owenand Nicole Kidman – won’t be nominated (If shewasn’t going to be up against Julianne Moore for GameChange, Kidman might even stand a chance of winning,going all Meryl Streep as she does with the husky voiceand non-accent). Director Philip Kaufman – a star inhis own right – is another safe bet. And don’t be surprisedif supporting player Robert Duvall sneaks into theraces: He’s received nods four times as an actor (and fiveoverall) and emerged victorious in 2007 for Broken Trail.THE HOUR (BBC)BBC America’s Cold War-era drama scored not onlyas a nail-biter but also as a pitch-perfect period pieceon par with the likes of Mad Men. In addition, it’scoming off three Golden Globe nominations. So, to putit mildly, it’s looking good for an Emmy nod or two, inparticular for its male lead, Wire alum Dominic Westas the smoothest operator this side of Don Draper.LUTHER (BBC)Though it hasn’t sparked the kind of hoopla that otherBBC America projects have, this dark crime dramadid earn its leading man, Idris Elba, a nod followingits first go-round last year. And, coming off a GoldenGlobe win this year, at the very least he seems like a safebet to receive another Emmy nomination.PAGE EIGHT (PBS)Most of the attention that PBS’ spy yarn has receivedthus far has been focused on its star, Bill Nighy – aGolden Globe nominee for his portrayal of an MI5agent whose discovery of a cover-up paints a targeton his back. However, writer-director David Hareshould be considered a contender as well, not onlybecause of the quality of the film but also because itmarks his first feature-length directorial effort since1997’s The Designated Mourner.SHERLOCK (PBS)Were the Emmys only about quality and not politics,star wattage and network muscle, a win for PBS’ superlativedetective update would be, well, elementary. Onevery level – writing, directing, acting – the episodesubmitted for consideration (the first of Season 2,“A Scandal in Belgravia”) is triumphant. At the veryleast, it – and its Holmes, Benedict Cumberbatch –should receive a nomination (Last year, the show’s onlymajor nod was for writing).TITANIC (ABC)If ABC has a sinking feeling about this effort’s Emmyprospects, it could be because there were more passengersaboard the ill-fated behemoth than watchedthis depiction of its fateful journey. Its only potentiallifeline? The man at the helm, Downton Abbey creatorJulian Fellowes, who bagged two statuettes last year,one in this category and one for writing for a miniseries,movie or special.TVline.com’s Andy Patrick contributed to this analysis.08EMMY AWARDS PRINT EDITIONS 2012