CMP Pads and Conditioners - NCCAVS - User Groups
CMP Pads and Conditioners - NCCAVS - User Groups
CMP Pads and Conditioners - NCCAVS - User Groups
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
Urethane Phoenix Rising<strong>CMP</strong> <strong>Pads</strong> & <strong>Conditioners</strong>Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Techcet Group LLCJuly 14, 2010Techcet Group, LLCMFury@Techcet.com 415-395395-6945www.techcet.com1
OutlineThe BusinessThe PlayersThe BuzzThe End© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 2
<strong>CMP</strong>UG July 2009© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 3
The Business of Business© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 4
The Business of BusinessSource: SEMI Industry Research <strong>and</strong> Statistics, July 2010© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 5
The Business of <strong>CMP</strong> - 2009$2.0<strong>CMP</strong> Slurry & Pad Revenue (2009)$1.8UpsideConservative($Billions)$1.6$1.4$1.2$1.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Recovery to 2007 peak© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 6
The Business of <strong>CMP</strong> - 2010$2.4Total Slurry & Pad Revenue ($B)$2.2$2.0$1.8$1.6$1.4$1.2UpsideConservative$1.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 7
The Business of Business© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 8
The Business of <strong>CMP</strong> Pad market ~$709M 3 year CAGR 8-9% Outlook last year was 5.5% Pad Conditioner market ~$200M Tracks pad market pretty well© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 9
The Players - <strong>Pads</strong> Dow still dominates with 78% share Measurable shares: table for 4, please Cabot, Thomas West, JSR, innoPad 3-5% share each; 7% Other Investor confidence: new funding rounds innoPad $6M, April 2009 NexPlanar $3.5M, March 2010 No departures in 2009© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 10
The Players - <strong>Pads</strong>Dow market share vulnerability isprocess-specificILD: Praxair (AMAT), innoPad, ToyoS-STI: 3MW: TWI, C<strong>CMP</strong>, innoPadAMAT Cu: JSR, FujiboEbara Cu: C<strong>CMP</strong>, Fujibo© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 11
The Players - <strong>Pads</strong>Pad manufacturing portfoliocontinues to exp<strong>and</strong>Skived from a polyurethane cakeIndividually moldedMolded groovesPunched from cast sheetPorosity on dem<strong>and</strong>Independent buttons© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 12
The Players - <strong>Pads</strong>Dow82%Cabot5%Thomas West5%July, 2010July, 2009Other3%JSR4%IVT Tech1%Dow78%Cabot5%TWI4%JSR3%innoPad3%Other7%Techcet estimates of market share© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 13
The Players – Pad <strong>Conditioners</strong> 3M & Kinik dominate with 55% share A dozen other players with 0%-13% Strong regional variations Entegris Planargem unveiled March, 2010 Manufacturing methods & materialscontinue to evolve Microreplication Non-r<strong>and</strong>om diamond placement Ceramics, polymers replace metals© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 14
The Players – Pad <strong>Conditioners</strong> Pad conditioning paradigm shift Startup: Confluense LLC (TBW) Debris removal defect reduction Slurry dilution replacement mode50% reduction in slurry consumption Continuous pad cleaningLess aggressive pad conditioning>2x pad life, >2x conditioner lifeShorter rinse cycles50% reduction in water consumption© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 15
The Players – Pad <strong>Conditioners</strong>Kinik22%Saesol13%3M32%July, 2009Abrasive Tech11% Mitsubishi6%Ehwa5%Other4%TBW4%St. Gobain3%Kinik22%July, 2010Saesol13%3M33%AbrasiveTech11%Mitsubishi6%Ehw a5%TBW4%Other3%St. Gobain3%Techcet estimates of market share© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 16
The Buzz – The Biz <strong>CMP</strong> Pad Market Dynamic Has Evolved More evidence of ‘normal’ competitivebehavior C<strong>CMP</strong> pad presence regarded as both credible<strong>and</strong> sustainable Investors more confident in startups Influence of Dow acquisition Gearing up for greater process-specificcustomization Co-suppliers working more with pad startups© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 17
The End <strong>CMP</strong> recovery is ahead of expectations <strong>CMP</strong> consumables revenue will surpass 2007peak levels by 2011 if not late this year No residual impact beyond 2010 <strong>CMP</strong> applications continue to increasealong evolutionary trajectories© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 18
The Techcet Group, LLC Karey Holl<strong>and</strong>, Ph.D. Steven Holl<strong>and</strong>, Ph.D. John Housley Lita Shon-Roy Michael Fury, Ph.D. Jiro Hanaue Maggie Lee Larry Thompson, Ph.D. Allan Wiesnoski© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 19
The Techcet Group, LLC 2010 <strong>CMP</strong> Report Orders Lita Shon-Roy925-413-9373LShonRoy@Techcet.comwww.Techcet.com© 2010 Techcet Group, LLC<strong>NCCAVS</strong> <strong>CMP</strong>UGJuly 14, 2010 20
Change language