Finding Robust Definitions for Feedback Stability ... - Cornwallis Group

CHRISTENSSON AND WOODCOCK: FINDING ROBUST DEFINITIONS FOR FEEDBACK INDICATORS 359War Sciences. Woodcock is also a Guest Professor at the National Defence College,Stockholm, Sweden, and was a Visiting Professor at the Royal Military College of Science,Shrivenham, England for 10 years. He is actively involved in the development andimplementation of societal dynamics models of military, political, economic, and otherprocesses for the modelling and analysis of low intensity conflict, peace and humanitarianoperations, and related areas. Woodcock is Project Director for the Strategic ManagementSystem (STRATMAS) project that is producing a facility that uses genetic algorithms andintelligent automata methods for the definition and optimal deployment of civilian andmilitary entities in peace and humanitarian operations. Woodcock is Chair, ProceedingsEditor, and a Founding Member of the Cornwallis Group. He has a Ph.D. in Biology and anM.Sc. in Biophysics from the University of East Anglia in England, as well as a B.Sc. (withhonours) in Physics from Exeter University in England. He is a Full Member of Sigma Xi.ABSTRACTWhat indicates that the desired end state for an operation or mission has been reached? Arethe indicators selected for that purpose appropriate to provide an unequivocal output thatsignifies that a particular mission has been accomplished? Can indicators generate numericaloutputs that actually reflect the complex internal dynamics of systems of interest? Inparticular, is it possible to produce robust definitions for feedback stability indicators for usein Counter Terrorist Operations? What happens when members of a planning staff havedifferent professional, cultural, and ethnic and/or religious backgrounds or national origins?A real need exists for operational facilities that can harmonize and integrate such differences.Strategic military planning requires the definition of an End State and the selection ofindicators that can identify when such a condition has been achieved as well as the progressbeing made during execution of an operational plan. In Effect-Based Operations thoseactivities require a direct statement of the nature of the Effective End State and specificationof what effect the planners are striving to create.The paper describes work that is being undertaken at the Swedish National DefenceCollege and elsewhere to develop a new understanding of operational planning processes andto provide enhanced facilities to support those processes. In particular study of the behaviourof dynamical systems can provide useful information for use as indicators of systembehaviour. Indicators that reflect the properties of models of an operational environment canprovide significant advantages and support to operational planning processes. Developmentand use of the DMSCupol facility to support operational planning as well as the Strategic