Finding Robust Definitions for Feedback Stability ... - Cornwallis Group

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CHRISTENSSON AND WOODCOCK: FINDING ROBUST DEFINITIONS FOR FEEDBACK INDICATORS 379matrix, it is possible to provide an overview that permits one to see Why a What to do has itsHow to do it. A user can use the overview of the Operational Score and the DM3 Matrix todevelop a better understanding through the use of two perspectives on the same data than ifonly presented with a single perspective.During the group modelling procedure in the staff when the shifting between COA scoreand the DM3 view, Figure 7, it may be possible for the staff to define indicators that signifythat a specific task is producing the required effect. By placing the indicator on the row justunder the rows of all the How’s, in the upper portion of the matrix we give an overview forthe staff when they are moving over from Operational Score (Figure 5) to the DM3 matrix(Figure 7). By defining and placing the indicators in the DM 3 matrix, Figure 7, it is possibleto create a control panel for execution of operational plans. In this panel data from the battlerhythms are reported as shift in colours of the indicators as the input data increase or decreasein value reflecting changes in the operational environment, for example.COMBINED DATA FROM DEVELOPED COA ANDTHE INDICATORS TO THE SIMULATIONDevelopment of formal models of situations of interest requires the development of anappropriate set of indicators that are linked to, or represent, the key processes and structuresof the model. Production of an appropriate set of indicators (perhaps based on the EuropeanCommission list, CAIO-derived information or information from other sources) couldsupport activities aimed at validating the model processes and verifying the model output.Use of an appropriately validated and verified model can support operational planning bypermitting analysis and assessment of the impact of different plans or plan elements on theoverall plan-directed outcome. Models can be used for the following types of activity duringthe planning process.• Open simulation in order to support war gaming to determine theeffectiveness of options selected during plan development.• Closed simulations in order to support identification and selection of optionsfor planning and/or execution within the operational environment by acommander.
380 THE CORNWALLIS GROUP IX: ANALYSIS FOR STABILIZATION AND COUNTER-TERRORIST OPERATIONS• Evolutionary simulations to examine the available range of friendly and/orhostile force options or to undertake some form of stability analysis.Figure 8: A map of Afghanistan generated by the STRATMAS facility showing themap-based presentation of percent victims of crime indicator data.Figure 8 shows the output from the formal models contained within the StrategicManagement System (STRATMAS) that was generated during a post-conflict stabilizationstudy of Afghanistan (described in more detail below). In this case, the map-based display ofpercent of individuals impacted by crime throughout the nation. Indication of hot-spotsreflecting high levels of criminal activity could identify a need for changes in operationaltactics and strategies for the deployment of police and other law enforcement assets, forexample, in order to reduce crime levels in identified areas. Other indicators in STRATMASreflect levels of other properties of the overall society and information provided by thoseindicators could be used to warn for the need to address other challenges.METHODOLOGICAL RESEARCH AND AN AFGHANISTANEXERCISE-DRIVEN STUDYThe Strategic Management System (STRATMAS) Phase III was developed for the SwedishNational Defence College and the United States Joint Staff (J8) by a small international team
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Finding Robust Definitions for Feedback Stability ... - Cornwallis Group

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