Instream Flow Needs Analysis - Okanagan Basin Water Board

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FINALOkanagan Basin Instream Flow NeedsFigure 2.4. Distribution of “Okanagan-like” points (red) relative to the overall dataset used in Hatfield and Bruce(2000). The blue line represents a locally-weighted regression through all data points.To assess the performance of the meta-analysis approach on specific Okanagan streams we undertook afurther validation exercise using field data collected by Phil Epp of the Environmental StewardshipDivision (MOE). Field data consisted of measured PHABSIM transects on several streams in theOkanagan Basin. This empirical data was compared to calculated optimal flow outputs from the metaanalysisfrom the same streams for comparison. The validation exercise allowed two contrasts: rainbowtrout parr rearing and kokanee spawning. The meta-analysis predictions are calculated from the Hatfieldand Bruce (2000) equations for rainbow juvenile, and from the equations for “all salmonids” spawning.Results are summarized below in Figure 2.5 and Figure 2.6.ESSA Technologies Ltd. & 22Solander Ecological Research
FINALOkanagan Basin Instream Flow NeedsEpp's empirical estimate (cms)7.006.005.004.003.002.001.000.00Rainbow juveniley = 1.128x ‐ 0.1283R² = 0.83020.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00Meta‐analysis prediction (cms)Figure 2.5. Relation between meta-analysis predictions and empirical estimates of optimal flows for rainbow parrin small Okanagan streams. The regression line spans the data range. A 1:1 line, which spans the rangeof the graph, is shown for reference. Points from Mission Creek are shown in green. The metaanalysisdoes a good job of predicting the site-specific results as indicated by the broad concordancebetween the 1:1 line and the regression line.Epp's empirical estimate (cms)76543210Kokanee spawningy = 0.8974x + 0.1588R² = 0.65370 1 2 3 4 5 6Meta‐analysis "all salmonids" (cms)Figure 2.6. Relation between meta-analysis predictions and empirical estimates of optimal flows for kokaneespawning in small Okanagan streams. Since a separate equation is not available for kokanee, the “allsalmonids” prediction is used as a proxy. The regression line spans the data range. A 1:1 line, whichspans the range of the graph, is shown for reference. Points from Mission Creek are shown in green.Output from the meta-analysis appeared to provide a reasonable prediction of optimal flows in smallOkanagan streams, for these two species and life stages. The sample size is fairly small, but the empiricalestimates of optimum flows closely follow the 1:1 reference line. Since the sample size is small and thepoints are not truly independent no formal statistical tests were conducted. The points for Mission Creek(MAD = 8.08 cms) provide an excellent example of how results are dependent on the morphology and23 ESSA Technologies Ltd. &Solander Ecological Research
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Instream Flow Needs Analysis - Okanagan Basin Water Board

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