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for pdf 2/10/05 1:40 PM Page 4A supporter displays a leaflet depicting Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri during a massprayer staged to bless Megawati for the her victory in the September 20 presidential election runoffin Jakarta.Supporters of presidential candidate, former General Susilo BambangYudhoyono, wave posters during a campaign rally in Jakarta, September 16,2004.regard for politicians and their parties. It was anenvironment that gave reformers a window ofopportunity. After more than 55 years of independence,party leaders were finally obliged toagree that the president and vice president shouldbe elected directly by the voting population – intwo rounds if necessary to assure a majority.Megawati’s limited success as presidentresulted in a sharp drop in her party’s public supportin the voting for the national legislature lastApril: from 34 percent in 1999 to less than 19percent in 2004. Even more surprising was therise of a small party that would have nationalsignificance. The votes for the brand-newDemocratic Party, designed as an election vehiclefor former general and cabinet ministerSusilo Bambang Yudhoyono (or SBY as he iscommonly called), immediately projected himinto serious contention for the presidency. InJuly, voting directly for president among a fieldof five, Indonesians gave SBY an extraordinary33.59 percent and Megawati 26.61 percent oftheir votes, enough to put these two in a run-offthat took place on September 20.According to a national sample of 2,000 votingstations, Indonesian voters elected SBY tothe presidency by roughly 60 percent to 40 percent.Megawati had faced too sizable a task; shehad to double the share of votes cast for her inJuly in order to win in September. She alsoneeded to widen her support geographically;her support in the first round was heavily concentratedin Central Java and Bali, where herfather had his roots. She adopted a strategy ofcoalition building with the leaders of two otherlarge parties, both well organized on theground in other regions. Some analysts doubted,however, that party members would vote inVoting is hugely popular in Indonesia;the first two nationwide rounds in 2004drew 84 percent and 78 percent ofregistered voters.conformity with the views of party leaders, andin the end many did not. After three years inoffice, Megawati had restored macroeconomicstability and been a moderating influence oninter-ethnic and inter-religious relations. Butshe did not do much about corruption or mountmuch of a campaign against Islamist terrorism.And the economy was still failing to producejobs. She was felt by many to be aloof anduncaring.SBY needed to attract only 50 percent morevotes than he did in July in order to win inSeptember. Even this was a sizable task, as his smallparty lacked any organization in many parts of thecountry. The former general therefore adopted anelectoral strategy of appealing directly to voters viatelevision, which is the primary source of politicalinformation for most Indonesians. Analysts notedthat his support was well distributed among mostparts of the archipelago. Polls showed he was consideredphotogenic, a good communicator, andlikely to get things done.SBY has said he will build a coalition cabinetin cooperation with other parties. What will thismean? Three of the country’s largest parties notonly supported his opponent in the Septemberelection, but are badly divided internally afterthe past year of continuous electioneering.Constructing parliamentary majorities on majorissues will be even more difficult than in thepast. Thus Indonesia seems to have moved closerto the politics of its neighbors in SoutheastAsia. Parties are weak; government will dependon coalitions of the willing. Not only that: theright candidate for president or prime ministermight even be able to be elected with virtuallyno party at all, which is a good deal less appealing.Can democratizing nations manage wellwithout strong parties? The question continuesto bedevil the Thais and Filipinos. NowIndonesians confront the question, too.John Bresnan is an adjunct senior research scholar atColumbia’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute.4 SIPA NEWS