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International Centre for Geohazards (ICG)

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Partners in <strong>ICG</strong><br />

<strong>Centre</strong> of Excellence –<br />

<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong><br />

<strong>Geohazards</strong> (<strong>ICG</strong>)<br />

Annual Report - 2007<br />

20031103-5 31 March 2008<br />

Client: The Research Council of Norway<br />

Contact person: Are Birger Carlson<br />

Contract reference: SFF – <strong>ICG</strong> 146035/420<br />

For the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute<br />

Report prepared by:<br />

Postal address: P.O. Box 3930 Ullevaal Stadion, N-0806 OSLO, NORWAY Telephone: (+47) 22 02 30 00 Postal account: 0814 51 60643<br />

Street address: Sognsveien 72, OSLO Telefax: (+47) 22 23 04 48 Bank account: 5096 05 01281<br />

Internet: http://www.ngi.no e -mail: ngi@ngi.no Business No. 958 254 318 MVA<br />

BS EN ISO 9001, Certified by BSI, Registration No. FS 32989<br />

Suzanne Lacasse<br />

Managing Director<br />

Farrokh Nadim<br />

Director, <strong>ICG</strong><br />

Reviewed by: Suzanne Lacasse


<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

Rev.: -<br />

Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Page: 2<br />

Summary<br />

The "<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong>" (<strong>ICG</strong>) is one the 13 <strong>Centre</strong>s of Excellence<br />

(Senter <strong>for</strong> Fremragende Forskning, SFF) established by The Research Council of<br />

Norway (RCN) in 2003. The Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) is the host<br />

organisation <strong>for</strong> <strong>ICG</strong>. Partners in the centre are the University of Oslo (UiO), the<br />

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NORSAR, and the<br />

Geological Survey of Norway (NGU).<br />

Results and activities in 2007<br />

• The research plan was followed and most of the goals set <strong>for</strong> the year were achieved.<br />

With respect to four major goals of <strong>ICG</strong>, a) in-kind contribution from the partners, b)<br />

complementary projects from the industry, c) number of PhD candidates, and d)<br />

international networking, the results have already, after 5 years of operation,<br />

exceeded by far the goals and expectations.<br />

• The focus of <strong>ICG</strong>’s research in 2007 was on:<br />

- Assessment of the risks associated with by geohazards to individuals and society.<br />

- Development and improvement of methods <strong>for</strong> modelling the mechanical processes<br />

underlying the physical phenomena of different geohazards and <strong>for</strong> evaluating<br />

the consequences of geohazards.<br />

- <strong>Geohazards</strong> prevention and risk mitigation strategies<br />

- Graduate university programmes on geohazards at UiO and NTNU<br />

• Joint workshops, seminars, and project meetings contributed to creating a good collaboration<br />

spirit among the five partners.<br />

• There is considerable interest and enthusiasm about the activities of <strong>ICG</strong>, both in<br />

Norway and abroad.<br />

Challenges <strong>for</strong> 2008<br />

The overall research plan remains essentially unchanged. The main challenges <strong>for</strong>eseen<br />

<strong>for</strong> 2008 include:<br />

• Finding complementary funding sources to continue the high activity level at <strong>ICG</strong>.<br />

• Research on complex issues such as vulnerability and risk assessment, tsunami runup<br />

estimation, disintegration of material during sliding, rainfall-induced landslides,<br />

earthquake response, etc.<br />

• Identification of the niches where the combined expertise of <strong>ICG</strong> partners could be<br />

put into practical use on the international arena.<br />

• Networking with centres of expertise who work on the societal aspects of the risk<br />

associated with geohazards.<br />

• Further work on identifying the most appropriate strategies <strong>for</strong> geohazards<br />

prevention and risk mitigation.<br />

• Attracting PhD candidates, post-docs and guest researchers to Norway.<br />

• Active participation in the research programmes on natural hazards and risk<br />

management in the 7 th Frame Programme.<br />

• Running and planning new international conferences, seminars and workshops.<br />

• Increased publication in highly respected scientific journals.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

Rev.: -<br />

Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Page: 3<br />

Contents<br />

1 BACKGROUND.........................................................................................................................4<br />

2 ORGANISATION OF <strong>ICG</strong>.........................................................................................................4<br />

3 ACTIVITIES OF <strong>ICG</strong>’S STEERING COMMITTEE .................................................................7<br />

4 TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES OF <strong>ICG</strong> IN 2007 ...........................................................................7<br />

4.1 Core research activities .....................................................................................................7<br />

4.2 Natural hazards and civil conflicts in Asia Pacific countries............................................8<br />

4.3 Event tree analysis of Åknes rock slide hazard...............................................................10<br />

5 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND OTHER <strong>ICG</strong><br />

ACTIVITIES IN 2007...............................................................................................................14<br />

5.1 <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007................................................................................................14<br />

5.2 <strong>International</strong> contacts and activities ................................................................................14<br />

5.3 Web site...........................................................................................................................15<br />

6 DOCTORAL CANDIDATES AND GUEST RESEARCHERS IN 2007................................15<br />

7 ACCOUNTING 2007................................................................................................................16<br />

7.1 Cash funding (kNOK).....................................................................................................16<br />

7.2 In kind (kNOK)...............................................................................................................17<br />

8 PLANNED ACTIVITIES AND BUDGET FOR 2008.............................................................17<br />

8.1 Research Projects ............................................................................................................17<br />

8.2 <strong>International</strong> networking .................................................................................................17<br />

8.3 EU proposals and projects with financing from other sources........................................18<br />

8.4 Organising conferences and workshops in 2008 and 2009 .............................................18<br />

8.5 <strong>ICG</strong> budget <strong>for</strong> 2008 .......................................................................................................18<br />

Appendix A – <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007<br />

Review and reference document<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

Rev.: -<br />

Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Page: 4<br />

1 BACKGROUND<br />

The "<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong>" (<strong>ICG</strong>) is a <strong>Centre</strong> of Excellence<br />

(Senter <strong>for</strong> Fremragende Forskning, SFF) established by the Research Council<br />

of Norway in 2003. The Norwegian <strong>Centre</strong>s of Excellence scheme is designed<br />

to stimulate Norwegian research groups to set up centres devoted to long-term<br />

basic research. The intention is to raise the quality of Norwegian research and<br />

bring more researchers and research groups up to a high international standard.<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> is a consortium of five partners. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI)<br />

is the host organisation <strong>for</strong> <strong>ICG</strong>. Other partners in the centre are University of<br />

Oslo (UiO), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU),<br />

NORSAR, and Geological Survey of Norway (NGU). The consortium may be<br />

expanded with "associated partners" subject to agreement by all five main partners.<br />

<strong>ICG</strong>’s objective is to be an international centre of expertise on basic and<br />

applied research on geo-related natural hazards (geohazards), such as landslides,<br />

earthquakes and tsunamis. The aim is to develop knowledge that can<br />

help save lives and reduce damage to infrastructure and the environment.<br />

Another aim is to train graduate students and highly-qualified researchers from<br />

Norway and abroad.<br />

2 ORGANISATION OF <strong>ICG</strong><br />

<strong>ICG</strong> has its own Board of Directors (Steering Committee). Each of the <strong>ICG</strong><br />

partners, NGI, NTNU, UiO, NORSAR and NGU, has a representative on the<br />

Steering Committee. In addition, the Steering Committee has at least one<br />

external representative from Norway and one international representative. The<br />

Research Council of Norway may also appoint a member to the Steering Committee.<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> has associated partners, e.g. University of Tromsø, but they do not<br />

have a representative on the Steering Committee.<br />

As the host organisation, NGI appointed the director of <strong>ICG</strong>, and NGI’s representative<br />

is the chairman of the Steering Committee.<br />

The activities of the <strong>ICG</strong> are grouped into three categories:<br />

1. Research projects<br />

2. Training and education<br />

3. <strong>International</strong> networking and dissemination of in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />

The organisation chart and the project chart of <strong>ICG</strong> are shown on the following<br />

pages. The <strong>ICG</strong> projects and other <strong>ICG</strong> activities are elaborated further later in<br />

the report.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

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Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Page: 5<br />

Board of Directors<br />

Kaare Høeg (UiO/NGI), Chairman Philippe Jeanjean (BP)<br />

Morten Smelror (NGU) Steinar Nordal (NTNU)<br />

Anders Elverhøi (UiO) Hallvard Berg (NVE)<br />

Anders Dahle (NORSAR) Tor-Inge Tjelta (Statoil)<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> Project 1<br />

Project Manager<br />

Researchers<br />

Students<br />

Technical Adviser<br />

Prof. Kaare Høeg<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> Project 2<br />

Project Manager<br />

Researchers<br />

Students<br />

Organisation chart of <strong>ICG</strong> as of 31 December 2007<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> Project 3<br />

Project Manager<br />

Researchers<br />

Students<br />

NGI<br />

Suzanne Lacasse<br />

Managing Director<br />

Dr. Farrokh Nadim, Director<br />

Bjørn Kalsnes, Deputy Director<br />

Tini van der Harst, Administrative Assistant<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> Research Projects and Themes<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> Project 4<br />

Project Manager<br />

Researchers<br />

Students<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> Project 5<br />

Project Manager<br />

Researchers<br />

Students<br />

<strong>International</strong> Scientific Advisors<br />

Prof. Gholamreza Mesri (U.of Illinois)<br />

Prof. Herbert H. Einstein (MIT)<br />

Prof. Steven Kramer (U. of Washington)<br />

Prof. Kok-Kwang Phoon (Nat. U. of Singapore)<br />

Theme A - Theme Coordinator Theme B - Theme Coordinator Theme C - Theme Coordinator<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> Project N<br />

Project Manager<br />

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Researchers<br />

Students


<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

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<strong>ICG</strong> Project Project Managers Guest Researchers<br />

Risk and vulnerability analysis <strong>for</strong> geohazards Dr. Suzanne Lacasse (NGI)<br />

Dr. Zenon Medina-Cetina, Dr. Jean Hutchinson, Nick Roberts,<br />

Arzu Erener, Marco Ranalli, Dr. Marco Uzielli<br />

Earthquakes – hazard, risk and loss estimation Prof. Hilmar Bungum (NORSAR) Dr. Daniela Kühn<br />

Stability of rock slopes Dr. Lars H. Blikra (NGU) Dr. Caterina Melchiorre, Prof. Mark Diederichs<br />

Geomechanical modelling Prof. Steinar Nordal (NTNU) Ian Lavielle Willoughby<br />

Offshore geohazards Dr. Maarten Vanneste (NGI)<br />

Dr. Shaoli Yang, Dr. Chris Baxter, Adriane Boscardin, Guanghai<br />

Hu<br />

Slope instability assessment and hazard zonation Dr. Kalle Kronholm (NGI) Sarah Gerin, Nele Meyer<br />

Slide Dynamics and mechanics of disintegration Prof. Anders Elverhøi (UiO) Dr. Fabio De Blasio<br />

Tsunami modelling and prediction Dr. Carl Harbitz (NGI) Dr. Sylfest Glimsdal<br />

Monitoring, remote sensing and early warning systems Dr. James Strout (NGI) Dr. Regula Frauenfelder<br />

PhD-candidates:<br />

Graziella Devoli (UiO)<br />

Roger Ebeltoft (NTNU)<br />

Maj Gøril Glåmen (NTNU)<br />

Gustav Grimstad (NTNU<br />

Guro Grøneng (NTNU)<br />

Jean-Sébastien L'Heureux (NTNU)<br />

Harald Iwe (UiO)<br />

Vidar Kveldsvik (NTNU)<br />

Finn Løvholt (UiO)<br />

Trond Nordvik (NTNU)<br />

Bård Romsdal (UiO)<br />

Samson Degago (NTNU)<br />

Hedda Breien (UiO)<br />

Arash Zakeri (UiO)<br />

José Cepeda (UiO)<br />

Technical Adviser<br />

Prof. Kaare Høeg<br />

Project chart of <strong>ICG</strong> as of 31 December 2007<br />

Dr. Farrokh Nadim, Director<br />

Bjørn Kalsnes, Deputy Director<br />

Tini van der Harst, Administrative Assistant<br />

Themes covering several projects Theme Coordinator<br />

Geophysics <strong>for</strong> geohazards<br />

GIT applications in geohazards<br />

Prevention and mitigation of geohazards<br />

<strong>ICG</strong>-affiliated PhD-candidates<br />

outside Norway in 2007:<br />

Matteo Pagliardi (Univ. of Paglia, Italy)<br />

Chang Shin Gue (Cambridge Univ., UK)<br />

Sook Ling Lee (Cambridge Univ., UK)<br />

Dr. Isabelle Lecomte (NORSAR)<br />

Prof. Andreas Kääb (UiO)<br />

Dr. Farrokh Nadim (NGI)<br />

PhDs awarded in 2007:<br />

Vikas Thakur (NTNU)<br />

Inger-Lise Solberg (NTNU)<br />

Sylfest Glimsdal (UiO)<br />

<strong>International</strong> Scientific Advisors<br />

Prof. Gholamreza Mesri (U.of Illinois)<br />

Prof. Herbert H. Einstein (MIT)<br />

Prof. Steven Kramer (U. of Washington)<br />

Prof. Kok-Kwang Phoon (Nat. U. of Singapore<br />

Professors from Norway active in <strong>ICG</strong>:<br />

Anders Elverhøi (UiO)<br />

Bernd Etzelmüller (UiO)<br />

Leiv-Jacob Gelius (UiO)<br />

Bjørn Gjevik (UiO)<br />

Lars Grande (NTNU)<br />

Svein Hamran (UiO)<br />

Kaare Høeg (UiO)<br />

Andreas Kääb (UiO)<br />

Hans Petter Langtangen (UiO)<br />

Terje Midtbø (NTNU)<br />

Farrokh Nadim (NTNU & UiO)<br />

Bjørn Nilsen (NTNU)<br />

Steinar Nordal (NTNU)<br />

Geir Kleivstul Pedersen (UiO)<br />

Rolf Sandven (NTNU)<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

Rev.: -<br />

Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Page: 7<br />

3 ACTIVITIES OF <strong>ICG</strong>’S STEERING COMMITTEE<br />

The main responsibility of <strong>ICG</strong>’s Steering Committee is to set the priorities in<br />

the yearly research plans. The Steering Committee also acts as a technical<br />

advisor to the Director of <strong>ICG</strong>.<br />

The Steering Committee shall also discuss and deal with<br />

• annual budget<br />

• annual technical report(s)<br />

• annual financial report<br />

The annual technical and financial report (this document) is prepared by the<br />

Director of the <strong>Centre</strong> and delivered to the Managing Director of NGI, who is<br />

responsible <strong>for</strong> reporting the activities of <strong>ICG</strong> to The Research Council of<br />

Norway.<br />

The <strong>ICG</strong> Steering Committee is composed of:<br />

Prof. Kaare Høeg (UiO/NGI), Chairman<br />

Dr Morten Smelror (NGU)<br />

Prof. Anders Elverhøi (UiO)<br />

Mr Anders Dahle (NORSAR)<br />

Prof. Steinar Nordal (NTNU)<br />

Mr Hallvard Berg (NVE)<br />

Mr Tor-Inge Tjelta (Statoil)<br />

Dr Philippe Jeanjean (BP, USA)<br />

The Steering Committee held 2 meetings in 2007:<br />

Meeting No. 1/07: 23 May 2007<br />

Meeting No. 2/07: 5 December 2007<br />

The following meetings in 2008 are planned:<br />

Meeting No. 1/08: 26 March 2008<br />

Meeting No. 2/08: 3 December 2008<br />

One of the main topics of discussion <strong>for</strong> the <strong>ICG</strong> Steering Committee in 2008<br />

is the evaluation of different models <strong>for</strong> <strong>ICG</strong>’s future after 2012.<br />

4 TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES OF <strong>ICG</strong> IN 2007<br />

4.1 Core research activities<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> divided its technical activities in 2007 into nine projects, and significant<br />

progress was done on each:<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

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• Risk and vulnerability analysis <strong>for</strong> geohazards<br />

• Earthquakes – hazard, risk and loss estimation<br />

• Stability of rock slopes<br />

• Geomechanical modelling<br />

• Offshore geohazards<br />

• Slope instability assessment and hazard zonation<br />

• Slide Dynamics and mechanics of disintegration<br />

• Tsunami modelling and prediction<br />

• Monitoring, remote sensing and early warning systems<br />

In addition to these projects, three "themes" that involve several projects were<br />

given high priority, and a Theme Coordinator was designated <strong>for</strong> streamlining<br />

the lateral cooperation among the technical projects in each theme:<br />

• Applications of geophysics to geohazards<br />

• Applications of Geographical In<strong>for</strong>mation Technology (GIT) to geohazards<br />

• Prevention and mitigation of geohazards<br />

Detailed in<strong>for</strong>mation about the <strong>ICG</strong> technical projects and themes is available<br />

on the <strong>ICG</strong> web site www.geohazards.no.<br />

In 2007 the partners in the <strong>ICG</strong> were involved in several high profile national<br />

and international projects. Two of these projects are presented below.<br />

4.2 Natural hazards and civil conflicts in Asia Pacific countries<br />

The project ‘Natural Hazards and Civil Conflicts in Asia Pacific Countries’<br />

was initiated by <strong>ICG</strong>/NGI in August 2007 upon request from the United<br />

Nations Office <strong>for</strong> Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Bangkok,<br />

and with financing from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. <strong>ICG</strong> is<br />

coordinating the project in cooperation with the <strong>Centre</strong> of Excellence CSCW<br />

(<strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> Studies of Civil Wars) at PRIO, The Earth Institute at Columbia<br />

University in New York, <strong>International</strong> Strategy <strong>for</strong> Disaster Reduction (ISDR)<br />

in Geneva, and Stene&Lahadji consultants in Paris. The ideas behind this<br />

project originate from several meetings between OCHA and NGI in 2006<br />

where the challenges in risk assessment and risk reduction were discussed.<br />

Based upon these meetings, OCHA asked NGI to outline a project proposal<br />

with support from NGI’s partners in the Natural Disasters Hotspots Project,<br />

which was carried out <strong>for</strong> the ProVention Consortium in 2002-2005.<br />

The purpose of the new project is to quantify the risks associated with both<br />

natural hazards and civil conflict <strong>for</strong> 53 countries in Asia Pacific (see map on<br />

Fig. 4.1), identify the hotspots on national and sub-national levels, and<br />

recommend mitigation measures <strong>for</strong> the hotspots. The same quantitative<br />

approach to risk assessment will be used <strong>for</strong> all the countries to ensure<br />

consistent modelling <strong>for</strong> the whole region. The term “risk”, in the context of<br />

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the project, refers to the expected degree of loss of lives in a defined area due<br />

to one or several threatening hazards within a given period. The main outcomes<br />

of the project will be i) predicted mortality loss data on a country basis <strong>for</strong><br />

selected hazards, ii) hazard zonation maps that show geographical hotspot<br />

areas <strong>for</strong> single hazards and <strong>for</strong> multi-hazards on regional (sub-national) level,<br />

iii) tabulated indices that allow OCHA to rank the countries in terms of risk<br />

level, iv) vulnerability maps that show hotspots in terms of socioeconomic<br />

indices defining vulnerability, including ‘capacity gaps’, and v) proposals <strong>for</strong><br />

preventive actions <strong>for</strong> selected hotspot risk countries in terms of how<br />

vulnerability can be reduced and/or how coping capacity could be improved.<br />

The project will develop methodologies and computation models that would<br />

allow the OCHA staff to update the predictions as the boundary conditions<br />

over time may change <strong>for</strong> some of the threats.<br />

Both natural hazards; such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, typhoons,<br />

tsunamis, volcanoes, droughts, and wildfires; and man-made hazards in <strong>for</strong>m of<br />

social unrest/armed conflicts will be considered in the study. In many situations<br />

there is interaction between the two types of hazard.<br />

The results of this project will be presented at a regional workshop to be held<br />

in Bangkok, Thailand in January 2009. The project will also be presented to<br />

various United Nations organisations during a project workshop that ISDR has<br />

organised in Geneva, Switzerland on 18 April 2008.<br />

Figure 4.1 Preliminary map of earthquake and tropical storm hazard in Asia<br />

Pacific.<br />

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4.3 Event tree analysis of Åknes rock slide hazard<br />

Rock falls and rockslides are among the most dangerous natural hazards in<br />

Norway, mainly because of their tsunamigenic potential. The three most<br />

dramatic natural disasters in Norway in the 20 th century were tsunamis<br />

triggered by massive rockslides into fjords or lakes (Loen in 1905 and 1936<br />

and Tafjord in 1934, see Fig. 4.2), causing more than 170 fatalities. As public<br />

attention on natural hazards increases, the potential rockslides in the Storfjord<br />

region in western Norway have earned renewed focus. A massive rockslide at<br />

Åknes (Fig. 4.3) could be catastrophic as the tsunami triggered by the rockslide<br />

represents a major threat to the communities around the fjord. The<br />

Åknes/Tafjord project was initiated in 2005 by the municipalities, with funding<br />

from the Norwegian government, to investigate rockslides, establish<br />

monitoring systems and implement a warning and evacuation system to prevent<br />

fatalities, should a massive rockslide take place.<br />

Figure 4.2 Fjøra in Tafjord be<strong>for</strong>e (left) and after (right) rockslide-triggered<br />

tsunami in 1934.<br />

Figure 4.3 Location map <strong>for</strong> Åknes, Tafjord and Geiranger.<br />

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The potential disaster associated with a rockslide and tsunami involves many<br />

parties, with differing opinions and perceptions. As part of the on-going hazard<br />

and risk assessment and validation of the early warning system, event trees<br />

were prepared by pooling the opinion of engineers, scientists and stakeholders.<br />

The objective was to reach consensus on the hazard and risk associated with a<br />

massive rockslide at Åknes. An event tree is a graphical construction that<br />

describes the sequence of the occurrence of events in a logical system. The tree<br />

identifies the possible outcomes and contains estimates of their probability of<br />

occurrence. As the number of events increases, the construction fans out like<br />

the branches of a tree. Each path in the event tree represents a specific<br />

sequence of events, resulting in a particular consequence. The events are<br />

defined such that they are mutually exclusive. ETA is a valuable analysis tool<br />

because it is simple and graphic, it provides qualitative insight into a system,<br />

and it can be used to assess the reliability of a system in a quantitative manner.<br />

In a multi-disciplinary process such as the analysis of hazard and risk<br />

associated with natural hazards, a number of “experts”, specialists and<br />

stakeholders are assembled and need to agree on the numbers set on the<br />

branches of the event tree. One needs then to achieve ‘consensus’. Consensus<br />

derives from Latin, ‘cum’ meaning ‘together with’ and ‘sentire’ meaning to<br />

‘think’ or ‘feel’. Etymologically, ‘consensus’ there<strong>for</strong>e means to think or feel<br />

together. In a decision-making process, consensus aims to be:<br />

• inclusive: as many stakeholders as possible should be involved in the<br />

consensus decision-making process.<br />

• participatory: the process should actively solicit the input and<br />

participation of all decision-makers<br />

• cooperative: participants should strive to reach the best possible<br />

decision <strong>for</strong> the group and all of its members, rather than opt to pursue<br />

a majority opinion, potentially to the detriment of a minority.<br />

• egalitarian: all members of a consensus decision-making body should<br />

be allowed, as much as possible, equal input into the process; all<br />

members have the opportunity to table, amend, veto or "block"<br />

proposals.<br />

• solution-oriented: the decision-making body strives to emphasise<br />

common agreement rather than differences and use compromise and<br />

other techniques to reach decisions and resolve mutually-exclusive<br />

positions.<br />

The event trees were constructed by pooling the opinion of engineers, scientists<br />

and stakeholders. The objective was to reach consensus on the hazard,<br />

vulnerability and risk associated with a rockslide at Åknes and to quantify the<br />

hazard (probability of a rockslide and tsunami occurring) and the potential<br />

losses (human life and material and environmental damage). Different triggers<br />

<strong>for</strong> the rockslide were analysed.<br />

The ETA was carried out over three days, where scientists and stakeholders<br />

with relevant competence to grasp the situation as a whole were assembled.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

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Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

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The objectives of the analysis were also to examine the required parameters <strong>for</strong><br />

an effective early warning system and suggest possible mitigation measures,<br />

e.g. drainage wells and drainage galleries. Progress is underway on the analysis<br />

and the results are only preliminary.<br />

The participant list <strong>for</strong> the results shown below included the following<br />

representatives:<br />

• manager <strong>for</strong> Åknes/Tafjord project<br />

• mayor of community<br />

• social scientist from community<br />

• city planner from community<br />

• policeman working on emergency plans and evacuation<br />

• local politician<br />

• representative from community office<br />

• directorate <strong>for</strong> safety and emergency preparedness<br />

• journalist/media<br />

• officer from ministry of highways<br />

• meteorologist<br />

• physical geographer<br />

• social geographer<br />

• geologist<br />

• engineering geologist<br />

• rock mechanics specialist<br />

• geotechnical engineer<br />

• tsunami specialist<br />

• instrumentation specialist<br />

• earthquake engineer<br />

• seismologist<br />

• mathematician<br />

• statistician<br />

• risk analysis specialist<br />

The following event trees were constructed during the three-day meeting:<br />

• event tree, rockslide due to seismic trigger<br />

• event tree, rockslide due to high pore pressure trigger<br />

• event tree, rockslide due to weathering and creep trigger<br />

• event tree, tsunami wave against Hellesylt<br />

• event tree, consequences of tsunami<br />

• event tree, optimum observations <strong>for</strong> early warning<br />

Event trees were constructed <strong>for</strong> three triggers of rock slope instability:<br />

earthquake, high pore pressure and weathering, creep and weakening of sliding<br />

plane. The event trees represent the judgment <strong>for</strong> the "today" (October 2007)<br />

situation. The trees set numbers <strong>for</strong> the probability of a slide within the next<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

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Page: 13<br />

year, but the probability changes with time. The event trees should there<strong>for</strong>e be<br />

updated as new in<strong>for</strong>mation becomes available.<br />

Figure 4.4 Event tree <strong>for</strong> earthquake-triggered rockslide (M, Amax=<br />

earthquake magnitude and acceleration, PP=pore pressure)<br />

Figure 4.5 Event tree <strong>for</strong> tsunami propagation, given that rock slide has<br />

occurred (V= rockslide volume, R=run-up height)<br />

Figures 4.4 and 4.5 present two examples: (1) event tree <strong>for</strong> seismic triggering<br />

of the rockslide, and (2) event tree <strong>for</strong> tsunami propagation, given that the<br />

rockslide has occurred. The numbers are given to illustrate the process, and are<br />

not to be used as estimates <strong>for</strong> the rockslope at Åknes.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

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The consensus process with a group of scientists from several fields of<br />

expertise, including the geoscientific, political, social and public arenas,<br />

enabled the participants to quantify the probability of occurrence of a<br />

catastrophic rockslide and tsunami, examine the required parameters <strong>for</strong><br />

effective early warning and discuss possible mitigation measures. Progress is<br />

still underway on these aspects of the analysis.<br />

5 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND OTHER<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> ACTIVITIES IN 2007<br />

5.1 <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007<br />

The <strong>ICG</strong> Publication List <strong>for</strong> 2007 is given in Appendix A.<br />

5.2 <strong>International</strong> contacts and activities<br />

In addition to the contacts and projects listed in the <strong>ICG</strong> Annual Reports <strong>for</strong><br />

2003 through 2006, the following new international projects and contacts were<br />

initiated.<br />

Two international workshops in connection with the Åknes/Tafjord project in<br />

August 2007: a workshop in Oslo hazard and risk assessment using event trees<br />

(see Section 4.3), and a field trip and workshop in Geiranger on the potential<br />

Åknes rock slide and tsunami. Most of the top international tsunami experts<br />

attended the latter workshop.<br />

NGI/<strong>ICG</strong> continued work on two regional network programmes, one in Asia<br />

and one in Central America, to increase the local competence in managing<br />

risks related to different types of landslides. Work also continued on a third<br />

regional project in the Caribbean to increase the local competence in managing<br />

risks related to tsunamis, earthquakes and landslides. The <strong>ICG</strong> partners NGI,<br />

NORSAR and UiO are involved in the Caribbean project.<br />

The <strong>ICG</strong> partners NORSAR and NGI are involved in several institutional cooperation<br />

projects in India and Pakistan with focus on problems related to<br />

earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis.<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> personnel were heavily involved in the organisation and planning of<br />

several large and important conferences, including:<br />

• Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, Texas, April-May 2007<br />

• First <strong>International</strong> Symposium on Geotechnical Safety & Risk,<br />

Shanghai, China, October 2007<br />

• Landslide Risk Management Forum, Hong Kong (December 2007)<br />

• 10 th <strong>International</strong> Symposium on Landslides and Engineered Slopes,<br />

Xi’an, China, June-July 2008<br />

• 33 rd <strong>International</strong> Geological Congress, Oslo, August 2008<br />

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5.3 Web site<br />

The web site of <strong>ICG</strong> is www.geohazards.no. The web site was redesigned in<br />

May 2005, and it is the main channel <strong>for</strong> disseminating in<strong>for</strong>mation about <strong>ICG</strong><br />

to the general public, as well as the specialists.<br />

6 DOCTORAL CANDIDATES AND GUEST RESEARCHERS IN 2007<br />

<strong>ICG</strong>’s PhD-candidates in 2007<br />

Name Nationality University Financial source<br />

Graziella Devoli Italy UiO NGI<br />

Appointment<br />

period in 2007<br />

01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Roger Ebeltoft Norway NTNU NTNU/Vegvesenet 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Sylfest Glimsdal * Norway UiO UiO/SIMULA 01/01 – 31/12 25<br />

Maj Gøril Glåmen Norway NTNU NTNU 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Guro Grøneng Norway NTNU <strong>ICG</strong> 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Harald Iwe Norway UiO NGI/<strong>ICG</strong> 01/01 – 31/12 25<br />

Vidar Kveldsvik Norway NTNU NGI/<strong>ICG</strong> 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Finn Løvholt Norway UiO NGI/<strong>ICG</strong> 01/01 – 31/12 75<br />

Bård Romstad Norway UiO UiO/<strong>ICG</strong> 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Inger Lise Solberg * Norway NTNU <strong>ICG</strong>/NTNU/NGU/NVE 01/01 – 30/06 50<br />

Vikas Thakur * India NTNU NTNU 01/01 – 31/10 100<br />

Trond Nordvik Norway NTNU NTNU 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Jean-Sébastien L’Heureux Canada NTNU NTNU/Vegvesenet/<strong>ICG</strong> 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Gustav Grimstad Norway NTNU NTNU 01/08 – 31/12 100<br />

Hedda Breien Norway UiO Vista Programme 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

José Cepeda El Salvador UiO <strong>ICG</strong> / Quota Prog. 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Arash Zakeri Canada UiO <strong>ICG</strong> 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Chang Shin Gue Malaysia Cambridge<br />

Univ., UK<br />

NGI/<strong>ICG</strong> 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

Sook Ling Lee Malaysia Cambridge<br />

Univ., UK<br />

NGI/<strong>ICG</strong> 01/01 – 31/12 100<br />

*<br />

PhD thesis successfully defended and doctoral degree awarded in 2007.<br />

Percent<br />

engagement<br />

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Post-doctoral and guest researchers at <strong>ICG</strong> in 2007<br />

Position Name Nationality Academic Appointment Financial source<br />

degree period in 2007<br />

Post-doc. Dr Zenon Medina-Cetina Mexico Ph.D. 01/01 – 31/12 NGI<br />

Post-doc. Dr Shaoli Yang China Ph.D. 01/01 – 31/08 NGI / <strong>ICG</strong><br />

Post-doc. Dr Daniela Kühn Germany Ph.D. 08/10 – 31/12 <strong>ICG</strong> / NORSAR<br />

Post-doc. Dr Fabio De Blasio Italy Ph.D. 01/01 – 31/12 UiO / <strong>ICG</strong><br />

Post-doc. Dr Caterina Melchiorre Italy Ph.D. 01/01 – 31/12 <strong>ICG</strong><br />

Post-doc. Dr Regula Frauenfelder Switzerland Ph.D. 01/10 – 30/11 NGI<br />

Post-doc. Dr Sylfest Glimsdal Norway Ph.D. 01/09 – 15/11 NGI<br />

Visiting<br />

professor<br />

Prof. Chris Baxter USA Ph.D. 01/08 – 31/12 NGI<br />

Visiting<br />

professor<br />

Prof. Jean Hutchinson Canada Ph.D. 01/08 – 30/11 NGI<br />

Visiting<br />

professor<br />

Prof. Mark Diederichs Canada Ph.D. 01/08 – 30/11 NGI<br />

Guest<br />

researcher<br />

Ian Lavielle Willoughby USA MSc 31/08 – 14/10 NTNU<br />

Guest<br />

researcher<br />

Nick Roberts Canada MSc 01/02 – 31/05 <strong>ICG</strong><br />

Guest<br />

researcher<br />

Nele Meyer Germany MSc 15/02 – 15/07 <strong>ICG</strong><br />

Guest<br />

researcher<br />

Guanghai Hu China MSc 15/02 – 15/05 China<br />

Guest<br />

researcher<br />

Marco Ranalli 1 Italy MSc 01/08 – 31/12 EU<br />

Guest<br />

researcher<br />

Arzu Erener 2 Turkey MSc 01/01 – 31/03 <strong>ICG</strong><br />

Guest<br />

researcher<br />

Adriane Boscardin 3 USA MSc 01/02 – 15/09 NSF<br />

Guest<br />

researcher<br />

Sarah Gerin 4 France MSc 15/03 – 15/09 <strong>ICG</strong><br />

1<br />

PhD-candidate at University of Bologna, Italy<br />

2<br />

PhD-candidate at Middle East Technical University, Turkey<br />

3<br />

PhD-candidate at University of Massachusetts, USA<br />

4<br />

PhD-candidate at Paris-7 University, France<br />

7 ACCOUNTING 2007<br />

7.1 Cash funding (kNOK)<br />

The numbers below are minimum estimates. The actual cash funding from <strong>ICG</strong><br />

partners and other industrial sources are greater.<br />

Activity<br />

RCN NGI<br />

Funding<br />

NGU/NORSAR/<br />

UiO/NTNU<br />

Other/<br />

Industrial<br />

SUM<br />

Technical Projects 9,410 6,000 4,700 4,700 24,810<br />

Non-technical activities 1,070 700 - - 1,770<br />

Administration & Steering<br />

Committee meetings<br />

1,520 500<br />

- - 2,020<br />

Total 12,000 7,200 4,700 4,700 28,600<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

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7.2 In kind (kNOK)<br />

The numbers below are minimum estimates. The actual numbers are higher.<br />

Contribution NGI NGU NTNU UiO NORSAR<br />

Personnel 2,000 200 0 * 0 * 200<br />

IT 500 500 100 100 500<br />

Office spaces 2,000 600 500 500 300<br />

Laboratory/Equipment 500 50 100 100 100<br />

Project work / proposals/ etc. 1,000 200 500 500 700<br />

Stipend to PhD-candidates 900 130 1,900 1,300 -<br />

TOTAL 6,900 1,680 3,100 2,500 1,800<br />

* Included in "Project work / proposals/ etc."<br />

8 PLANNED ACTIVITIES AND BUDGET FOR 2008<br />

8.1 Research Projects<br />

The following projects were approved <strong>for</strong> 2007 by the Board of Directors:<br />

• Risk and vulnerability analysis <strong>for</strong> geohazards<br />

• Earthquake hazard, risk and loss<br />

• Stability of rock slopes<br />

• Geomechanical modelling<br />

• Offshore geohazards<br />

• Slope instability assessment and hazard zonation<br />

• Slide dynamics<br />

• Tsunami modelling and prediction<br />

• Monitoring, remote sensing and early warning systems<br />

In addition, 3 cross-expertise areas that involve several projects have assigned<br />

"theme coordinators":<br />

• Applications of geophysics to geohazards<br />

• Applications of Geographical In<strong>for</strong>mation Technology (GIT) to<br />

geohazards<br />

• Prevention and mitigation<br />

In addition the graduate (MSc and PhD) programmes initiated respectively in<br />

2003 and 2005 at UiO and NTNU are continuing.<br />

8.2 <strong>International</strong> networking<br />

Travels to disaster prevention and natural hazard centres in USA, China and<br />

France are planned. Active participation (lecturing) in 10-20 international<br />

conferences is planned <strong>for</strong> 2008. In most cases, <strong>ICG</strong> representatives are asked<br />

to give keynote or state-of-the-art lectures.<br />

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8.3 EU proposals and projects with financing from other sources<br />

This will be a continuous activity throughout the existence of <strong>ICG</strong>.<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> is already involved in the Integrated Project LESSLOSS, the STREP<br />

Projects IRASMOS, TRANSFER and SAFER, and the I3-project NERIES<br />

(Network of Research Infrastructure <strong>for</strong> European Seismology) in European<br />

Commission’s 6 th Frame Programme. In the 7 th Frame Programme, <strong>ICG</strong><br />

partners have submitted the following proposals in topics related to<br />

geohazards:<br />

• MOVE (Methods <strong>for</strong> the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in<br />

Europe) – Final stages of negotiation with European Commission.<br />

• MODEM (Modelling of scenarios, mitigation techniques and tools <strong>for</strong><br />

management of risks derived from flash floods in mountain basins) –<br />

proposal submitted on 25 Feb. ’08.<br />

• SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) – proposal<br />

submitted on 25 Feb. ’08.<br />

• SAFELAND (Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects<br />

of global change and risk management strategies) – proposal submitted<br />

on 25 Feb. ’08.<br />

The last proposal is a large integrating project, which will be coordinated by<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> if it is funded by the European Commission.<br />

The project GeoExtreme, financed by the NORKLIMA programme of the<br />

Research Council of Norway, is executed by <strong>ICG</strong> partners NGU and NGI,<br />

together with the Bjerknes <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> Climate Research, CICERO and<br />

Norwegian Meteorological Institute.<br />

8.4 Organising conferences and workshops in 2008 and 2009<br />

<strong>ICG</strong> is a major contributor to the 33 rd <strong>International</strong> Geological Congress<br />

(33IGC), which will be held in Oslo in August 2008. This will be the largest<br />

scientific conference ever held in Norway with an estimated 6000 to 8000<br />

participants. <strong>Geohazards</strong> is one of the major themes of 33IGC. In addition to<br />

the many geohazards-related technical sessions that are convened by the <strong>ICG</strong><br />

researchers, two special sessions will be arranged by <strong>ICG</strong>: a "<strong>Geohazards</strong> Day"<br />

with invited international experts, and the Symposium "A tribute to Professor<br />

Kaare Høeg" (Prof. Høeg is the chairman of <strong>ICG</strong> Steering Committee).<br />

8.5 <strong>ICG</strong> budget <strong>for</strong> 2008<br />

The table below reflects funding from The Research Council of Norway only.<br />

Considerable cash and in-kind contributions from the <strong>ICG</strong> partners and other<br />

sources of funding come in addition to the amounts below (see Section 7).<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

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Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

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<strong>ICG</strong> budget in 2008 based on funding from The Research Council of Norway<br />

Funding from<br />

Activity<br />

Research<br />

Council (kNOK)<br />

Comments SUM<br />

9 technical projects 10,280 See Section 8.1.<br />

Graduate programmes on<br />

geohazards<br />

300<br />

Coordination of 3 themes 590 See Section 8.1.<br />

IT solutions, EU Proposals, web<br />

site & in<strong>for</strong>mation, conference<br />

participation<br />

910<br />

<strong>International</strong> networking 200<br />

Administration & Steering<br />

Committee meetings<br />

1,500<br />

Contingency 220<br />

Total kNOK 14,000<br />

Total <strong>for</strong> technical<br />

projects = kNOK 11,170<br />

Total <strong>for</strong> non-technical activities =<br />

kNOK 2,830<br />

The total expenditure charged to the funds provided by The Research Council<br />

of Norway is budgeted to be kNOK 14,000 in 2008. Given the momentum of<br />

<strong>ICG</strong>, and the convincing results obtained so far, a major challenge <strong>for</strong> <strong>ICG</strong> is<br />

complete its activities <strong>for</strong> an annual budget of 12 MNOK from RCN. For this<br />

reason, <strong>ICG</strong> has requested an annual funding of 14 MNOK from RCN <strong>for</strong> the<br />

first two years of the 2008-2012 period, which is to be compensated by a<br />

reduced funding of 8 MNOK in 2012.<br />

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Kontroll- og referanseside/<br />

Review and reference page<br />

Oppdragsgiver/Client<br />

The Research Council of Norway<br />

Kontraktsreferanse/<br />

Contract reference<br />

SFF – <strong>ICG</strong> 146035/420<br />

Dokumenttittel/Document title<br />

<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> – Annual report – 2007<br />

Prosjektleder/Project Manager<br />

Farrokh Nadim<br />

Utarbeidet av/Prepared by<br />

Farrokh Nadim<br />

Emneord/Keywords<br />

Land, fylke/Country, County<br />

Kommune/Municipality<br />

Sted/Location<br />

Kartblad/Map<br />

UTM-koordinater/UTM-coordinates<br />

Dokument nr/Document No.<br />

20031103-5<br />

Dato/Date<br />

2008-03-31<br />

Distribusjon/Distribution<br />

� Fri/Unlimited<br />

� Begrenset/Limited<br />

� Ingen/None<br />

Havområde/Offshore area<br />

Feltnavn/Field name<br />

Sted/Location<br />

Felt, blokknr./Field, Block No.<br />

Kvalitetssikring i henhold til/Quality assurance according to<br />

NS-EN ISO9001<br />

Kon-<br />

Dokument/Document Revisjon 1/Revision 1 Revisjon 2/Revision 2<br />

trollert<br />

av/<br />

Reviewed<br />

by<br />

FNa<br />

Kontrolltype/<br />

Type of review<br />

Helhetsvurdering/<br />

General<br />

Evaluation *<br />

SL Språk/Style<br />

SL<br />

Teknisk/Technical<br />

- Skjønn/Intelligence<br />

- Total/Extensive<br />

- Tverrfaglig/<br />

Interdisciplinary<br />

THa Ut<strong>for</strong>ming/Layout 2008.03.31<br />

SL Slutt/Final 2008.03.31<br />

Kopiering/Copy quality<br />

Kontrollert/Reviewed Kontrollert/Reviewed Kontrollert/Reviewed<br />

Dato/Date<br />

2008.03.31<br />

Sign. Dato/Date Sign. Dato/Date Sign.<br />

* Gjennomlesning av hele rapporten og skjønnsmessig vurdering av innhold og presentasjons<strong>for</strong>m/<br />

On the basis of an overall evaluation of the report, its technical content and <strong>for</strong>m of presentation<br />

Dokument godkjent <strong>for</strong> utsendelse/<br />

Document approved <strong>for</strong> release<br />

Dato/Date<br />

31 March 2008<br />

Sign.


<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

Rev.:<br />

Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Appendix A – <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007 Page: A1<br />

Appendix A - <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

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Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Appendix A – <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007 Page: A2<br />

NOTE: <strong>ICG</strong> Publication numbers 1 – 132 are listed in previous <strong>ICG</strong> Annual<br />

Reports. Some earlier references missing in the previous lists are<br />

included below.<br />

133. Kvalstad, T.J. (2007)<br />

What is the Current "Best Practice" in Offshore Geohazard Investigations? A<br />

State-of-the-Art Review.<br />

OTC 18545, Offshore Technology Conference ’07, Houston, Texas, May 2007.<br />

134. Lacasse, S., Nadim, F., Rahim, A. and Guttormsen, T.R. (2007)<br />

Statistical description of characteristic soil properties.<br />

OTC-19117, Offshore Technology Conference ’07, Houston, Texas, May 2007,<br />

8 pp.<br />

135. Harbitz, Løvholt & Glimsdal (2007)<br />

Tsunamis generated by earthquakes and gravity mass flows - recent studies and<br />

future challenges <strong>for</strong> offshore geohazards.<br />

OTC-18602 , Offshore Technology Conference ’07, Houston, Texas, May 2007,<br />

9 pp.<br />

136. Gauer, P., De Blasio, F.V. and Elverhøi, A. (2007)<br />

An <strong>International</strong> Perspective I or II: Dynamic Modelling of Submarine Slide<br />

Run-Out/Submarine Mass Movements; Where Do We Stand and What Are the<br />

Main Challenges?<br />

OTC-18597, Offshore Technology Conference '07, Houston, Texas, May 2007,<br />

7 pp.<br />

137. Vanneste, M., Westerdahl, H., Sparrevik, P., Madshus, C., Lecomte, I.,<br />

Zühlsdorff, L. (2007)<br />

Shear-Wave Source <strong>for</strong> Offshore Geohazard Studies: A Pilot Project to Improve<br />

Seismic Resolution and Better Constrain the Shear Strength of Marine<br />

Sediments.<br />

OTC-18756 Offshore Technology Conference '07, Houston, Texas, May 2007,<br />

15 pp.<br />

138. Andresen, L. and Jostad, H.P. (2007)<br />

Numerical Modeling of Failure Mechanisms in Sensitive Soft Clay - Application<br />

to offshore geohazards.<br />

OTC 18640, Offshore Technology Conference '07, Houston, Texas, May 2007,<br />

7pp<br />

139. Solheim, A., Forsberg, C.F., Yang, S., Kvalstad, T.J., Longva, O. and Rise, L.<br />

(2007)<br />

The Role of Geological Setting and Depositional History in Offshore Slope<br />

Instability.<br />

OTC 18720, Offshore Technology Conference '07, Houston, Texas, May 2007.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

Rev.:<br />

Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Appendix A – <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007 Page: A3<br />

140. Nadim, F., Biscontin, G. and Kaynia, A.M. (2007)<br />

Seismic Triggering of Submarine Slides.<br />

OTC 18911, Offshore Technology Conference '07, Houston, Texas, May 2007,<br />

8pp.<br />

141. Yang, S., Kvalstad, T.J., Solheim, A. and Forsberg, C.F. (2007)<br />

Slope Stability at Northern Flank of Storegga slide.<br />

Proc. of the 17 th <strong>International</strong> Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference<br />

(ISOPE), Lisbon, Portugal, July 1-6, 2007, pp. 1524-15129. ISBN 978-1-<br />

880653-68-5; ISBN 1-880653-68-0(Set); ISSN 1098-6189 (Set).<br />

142. Lacasse, S., Nadim, F. and DiBiagio, E. (2007)<br />

<strong>Geohazards</strong> assessment and mitigation, a geotechnical perspective.<br />

The 2007 Kersten Lecture. University of Minnesota 55th Annual Geotechnical<br />

Engineering Conference, Continuing Education and Conference Center, 16<br />

March 2007.<br />

143. Eilertsen, R.S., Hansen, L., Bargel, T.H. and Solberg, I.-L. (2007)<br />

Clay slides in the Målselv valley, northern Norway: Characteristics, occurrence,<br />

and triggering mechanisms.<br />

Geomorphology 93 (2008), pp. 548-562. Doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.03.013.<br />

144. Lacasse, S., Nadim, F., and DiBiagio, E. (2007)<br />

<strong>Geohazards</strong> assessment and mitigation, a geotechnical perspective.<br />

<strong>International</strong> Geotechnical Symposium "Geotechnical Engineering <strong>for</strong> Disaster<br />

Prevention & Reduction", 25-27 July 2007, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia.<br />

145. Lacasse, S. and Nadim, F. (2007)<br />

Probabilistic geotechnical analyses <strong>for</strong> offshore facilities.<br />

Georisk, Vol. 1, No. 1, March 2007, pp. 21–42.<br />

146. Yang, S., Nadim, F., and Forsberg, C.F. (2007).<br />

Probability study on submarine slope stability.<br />

Third international conference <strong>for</strong> "Submarine mass movements and their<br />

consequences", Santorini, Greece, October, 2007.<br />

147. Gauer, P., Lied, K., and Kristensen, K. (2007)<br />

On avalanche measurements at the Norwegian full-scale test-site Ryggfonn.<br />

Cold Region Science and Technology.<br />

148. Strout, J.M., and Tjelta, T.I. (2007)<br />

Excess pore pressure measurement and monitoring <strong>for</strong> offshore instability<br />

problems.<br />

OTC 18706, Offshore Technology Conference '07, Houston, Texas, May 2007,<br />

10pp.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

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Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Appendix A – <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007 Page: A4<br />

149. Tjelta, T.I., Svanø, G:, Strout,J.M., Forsberg, C.F., Planke, S. and Johansen, H.<br />

(2007)<br />

Gas Seepage and Pressure Buildup at a North Sea Plat<strong>for</strong>m Location: Gas<br />

Origin, Transport Mechanisms, and Potential Hazards.<br />

OTC 18699, Offshore Technology Conference '07, Houston, Texas, May 2007,<br />

11pp.<br />

151. H. Breien, Pagliardi, M., Elverhøi, A., De Blasio, F.V. and Issler, D. (2007)<br />

Experimental studies of subaqueous vs. subaerial debris flows - velocity<br />

characteristics as a function of the ambient fluid.<br />

Proc. Submarine massmovements and their consequences - 3rd <strong>International</strong><br />

Symposium, pp. 101-110.<br />

152. Vanneste, M., Berndt, C., Laberg, J.S. and Mioenert, J. (2007)<br />

On the origin of large shelf embayments on glaciated margins - effects of lateral<br />

ice flux variations and glacio-dynamics West of Svalbard.<br />

Quaternary Science Reviews 26 (2007), pp. 2406-2419.<br />

Doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.05.005.<br />

153. De Blasio, F.V. (2007)<br />

Production of frictional heat and hot vapour in a model of self-lubricating<br />

landslides.<br />

Technical Note to Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering. DOI<br />

10.1007/s00603-007-0153-8.<br />

154. Lacasse, S., Nadim, F. and Uzielli, M. (2007)<br />

Risk Assessment <strong>for</strong> Landslides.<br />

ECSMGE 2007, Madrid, Spain. 24-27 September 2007, 8 pp.<br />

155. Kjekstad, O. (2007)<br />

The challenges of landslide hazard mitigation in developing countries.<br />

Keynote Lecture presented at 1st North-American Landslide Conference, Vail,<br />

Colorado 3-8 June 2007<br />

156. Sharma, M., Malik, S., Kumar, A., Lindholm, C., Bungum, H. and Kanya, A.<br />

(2006)<br />

Seismic Microzonation of Dehradun.<br />

Workshop on Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment under the Indo-Norwegian<br />

Programme on Institutional Cooperation, New Delhi, India, March 18-19, 2006.<br />

157. Kolapte, N., Mulat, T., Pal, S., Paul, D.K., Kaynia, A.M. and Bhasin, R.K.<br />

(2006)<br />

Seismic Response of Underground Cavities in Jointed Rock Mass using DEM.<br />

Workshop on Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment under the Indo-Norwegian<br />

Programme on Institutional Cooperation, New Delhi, India, March 18-19, 2006.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

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Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Appendix A – <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007 Page: A5<br />

158. Düzgün, H.S.B. and Bhasin, R.K. (2007)<br />

Affect of shear strength critera selection in probablistic rock slope stability<br />

analysis: A case study <strong>for</strong> a jointed rock slope in Norway.<br />

Rock Mechanics: Meeting Society's Challenges and Demands - Eberhardt, Stead<br />

& Morrison (eds). Proc. of the first Canada-US Rock Mechanics Symposium<br />

Vancouver, 27-31 May 2007, pp. 951-957<br />

159. Nadim, F. and Glade, T. (2006)<br />

On tsunami risk assessment <strong>for</strong> the west coast of Thailand.<br />

Proceedingss of ECI Conference on <strong>Geohazards</strong>, edited by: Nadim, F., Pöttler,<br />

R., Einstein, H., Klapperich, H. & Kramer, S. ECI Symposium Series, 7,<br />

http://services.bepress.com/eci/geohazards/28.<br />

160. Medina-Cetina, Z., Ghanem, R. and Rechenmacher, A.L. (2007)<br />

A functional Bayesian method <strong>for</strong> the solution of inverse problems with spatiotemporal<br />

parameters.<br />

Proc. 6 th European LS-DYNA Users’ Conference, Gothenburg, Sweden, 29-30<br />

May.<br />

161. Pal, S., Paul, D.K., Pandey, A.D., Bhasin, R.K. and Kaynia, A.M. (2006)<br />

Case Studies of Dam Failures: A Geological Insight.<br />

Workshop on Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment under the Indo-Norwegian<br />

Programme on Institutional Cooperation, New Delhi, India, March 18-19, 2006.<br />

162. Bhasin, R.K., Kaynia, A.M., Paul, D.K. , Singh, Y. and Pal, S. (2006)<br />

Effects of Seismicity on Rock Support in Tunnels of Different Sizes.<br />

Workshop on Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment under the Indo-Norwegian<br />

Programme on Institutional Cooperation, New Delhi, India, March 18-19, 2006<br />

163. Prasad, J.S.R., Singh, Y., Kaynia, A.M. and Lindholm, C. (2006)<br />

Seismic Risk Assessment of Dehradun City.<br />

Proc., 13 th Symp. on Earthq. Eng. (D. Paul, A. Kumar & M. Sharma, Eds.),<br />

Indian Institute of Technology Rorkee, India, 18-20 Dec. 2006, pp. 287-294<br />

164. Lindholm, C.D:, Bungum, H., Oye, V. and Molina, S. (2006)<br />

Near Real-Time Damage Estimation.<br />

Proc., 13 th Symp. on Earthq. Eng. (D. Paul, A. Kumar & M. Sharma, Eds.),<br />

Indian Institute of Technology Rorkee, India, 18-20 Dec. 2006, pp. 279-286.<br />

165. Løvholt, F., Harbitz, C.B., Glimsdal, S., Bungum, H., Lindholm, C.D. and<br />

Pedersen, G. (2006)<br />

Tsunami hazard and risk along the West Coast of Thailand.<br />

Proc., 13 th Symp. on Earthq. Eng. (D. Paul, A. Kumar & M. Sharma, Eds.),<br />

Indian Institute of Technology Rorkee, India, 18-20 Dec. 2006, pp. 209-216.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

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Rev.:<br />

Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Appendix A – <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007 Page: A6<br />

166. Bungum, H. (2006)<br />

Modelling earthquake activities on faults.<br />

Proc., 13 th Symp. on Earthq. Eng. (D. Paul, A. Kumar & M. Sharma, Eds.),<br />

Indian Institute of Technology Rorkee, India, 18-20 December 2006, pp. 1-8.<br />

167. Sharma, M., Bungum, H., Kumar, A. and Bhattacharya, A. (2006).<br />

Development of strong ground motion attenuation relationships <strong>for</strong> spectral<br />

accelerations <strong>for</strong> the Himalayan region.<br />

Proc., Workshop on Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment under the Indo-<br />

Norwegian Programme on Institutional Cooperation, New Delhi, India, March<br />

18-19, 2006, SHRA-01, 8 pp.<br />

168. Vanneste, M., Harbitz, C.B., De Blasio, F.V., Glimsdal, S., Mienert, J. and<br />

Elverhøi, A. (2007)<br />

The Hinlopen-Yermak Slide, Arctic Ocean - Geomorphology, landlide dynamics<br />

and tsunami simulations.<br />

Contribution to: The importance of Mass-Transport Deposits in Deepwater<br />

Settings, Society of Sedimentary Geology - Special Publication. Editors: C.<br />

Shipp, P. Weimer, H. Posamentier.<br />

169. Hansen, L., Eilertsen, R.S., Solberg, I.L., Sveian, H. & Rokoengen, K (2007)<br />

Facies Characteristics, Morphology and Depositional Models of Clay-Slide<br />

Deposits in Terraced Fjord Valleys, Norway.<br />

Sedimentary Geology, 202, pp. 710-729<br />

170. Solberg, I.L., Hansen, L., Rokoengen, K., Sveian, H. & Olsen, L. (2007)<br />

Deglaciation history and landscape development of fjord-valley deposits in<br />

Buvika, Mid Norway. Boreas.<br />

171. Solberg, I.L., Rønning, J.S., Dalsegg, E., Hansen, L., Rokoengen, K. &<br />

Sandven, R. (2007)<br />

Resistivity measurements as a tool <strong>for</strong> outlining quick-clay extent and valley-fill<br />

stratigraphy: a feasability study from Buvika, Central Norway. Canadian<br />

Geotechnical Journal.<br />

172. Solberg, I.L., Hansen, L. and Rokoengen, K. (2007)<br />

Distribution of clay slides in fjord-valley deposits and their role in valley<br />

development, example from Mid Norway.<br />

In: Proceedings of 1 st North American Landslide Conference, Vail, Colorado,<br />

June 3-8 2007. AEG Special Publication NO. 23. p. 472-487. ISBN 978-0-975-<br />

42953-2.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

Rev.:<br />

Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Appendix A – <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007 Page: A7<br />

173. Solberg, I.L. (2007)<br />

Geological, geomorphological and geophysical investigations of areas prone to<br />

clay slides: Examples from Buvika, Mid Norway. PhD thesis. Department of<br />

Geology and Mineral Resources Engineering, Norwegian University of Science<br />

and Technology, 213 pp.<br />

174. Solberg, I.L., Hansen, L. & Rokoengen, K. (2007)<br />

Large, prehistoric clay slides revealed in road excavations in Buvika, Mid-<br />

Norway. Landslides.<br />

175. Yang, S.L., Medina-Cetina, Z. and Nadim, F. (2007).<br />

Uncertainty analysis on remoulded undrained shear strength of marine clay<br />

ISGSR2007 First <strong>International</strong> Symposium on Geotechnical Safety & Risk,<br />

October 18-19, Shanghai. Tongji University, China<br />

176. Lyså, A., Hansen, L., Christensen, O., l`Heureux, J.S., Longva, O., Olsen, H.<br />

and Sveian, H. (2007)<br />

Landscape evolution and slide processes in a glacio-isostatic rebound area; a<br />

combined marine and terrestrial approach.<br />

Marine Geology, 248, pp. 53-73.<br />

177. Kveldsvik, V., Nilsen, B., Einstein, H.E. and Nadim, F. (2007)<br />

Alternative approaches <strong>for</strong> analyses of a 100,000 m3 rock slide based on<br />

Barton–Bandis shear strength criterion<br />

Landslides, DOI 10.1007/s10346-007-0096-x<br />

178. Nadim, F. and Kvalstad, T.J. (2007)<br />

Risk assessment and management <strong>for</strong> offshore geohazards.<br />

ISGSR2007 First <strong>International</strong> Symposium on Geotechnical Safety & Risk,<br />

October 18-19, Shanghai. Tongji University, China<br />

179. Medina-Cetina, Z. and Nadim, F. (2007)<br />

Stochastic Design of Early Warning System<br />

ISGSR2007 First <strong>International</strong> Symposium on Geotechnical Safety & Risk,<br />

October 18-19, Shanghai. Tongji University, China<br />

180. Robert, N.J., Nadim, F. and Kalsnes, B. (2007)<br />

Quantification of vulnerability to natural hazards<br />

ISGSR2007 First <strong>International</strong> Symposium on Geotechnical Safety & Risk,<br />

October 18-19, Shanghai. Tongji University, China<br />

181. L'Heureux, J.-S., Longva, O., Hansen, L. and Vingerhagen, G. (2007).<br />

The 1990 submarine slide outside the Nidelv river mouth, Trondheim, Norway.<br />

Proc. Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences - 3rd <strong>International</strong><br />

Symposium (eds.: Lykousis, V., Sakellariou, D. and Locat, J.), pp. 259-267.<br />

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geohazards</strong> Report No.: 20031103-5<br />

Date: 2008-03-31<br />

Rev.:<br />

Annual Report - 2007 Rev. date:<br />

Appendix A – <strong>ICG</strong> Publications in 2007 Page: A8<br />

182. Lecomte, I., Bano, M., Hamran, S.-E., Dalsegg, E., Nielsen, K.-M, Holst<br />

Nielsen, M., Douillet, G., Frery, E., Guy, A. and Volesky, S. (2007)<br />

Submarine Slides at Finneidfjord (Norway): Geophysical Investigations.<br />

SAGEEP conference in April 2008 in Philadelphia<br />

183. Fell, R., Ho, K.K.S, Lacasse, S. and Leroi, E. (2005).<br />

A framework <strong>for</strong> landslide risk assessment and management.<br />

State of the Art Paper 1. <strong>International</strong> Conference on Landslide Risk Management,<br />

Vancouver, Canada, 31 May-2 June 2005. (tidl. <strong>ICG</strong> nr. 73), pp. 3-25<br />

184. Erener, A. and Lacasse, S. (2007)<br />

Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS.<br />

Proc. CRS 2007 The 28th Asian Conference on remote sensing,. 12-16<br />

November 2007 Kuala Lumpur, MALAYSIA.<br />

185. Erener, A., Lacasse, S. and Kaynia, A.M. (2007)<br />

Landslide hazard mapping by using GIS in the Lilla Edet province of Sweden.<br />

Proc. CRS 2007 The 28th Asian Conference on remote sensing,. 12-16<br />

November 2007 Kuala Lumpur, MALAYSIA.<br />

186. Breien, H., De Blasio, F., Elverhøi, A. and Høeg, K. (2007)<br />

Erosion and morphology of a debris flow caused by a glacial lake outburst flood.<br />

Landslides, Online First: DOI 10.1007/s10346-0118-3<br />

187. Blikra, L.H. (2008)<br />

The Åknes rockslide; monitoring, threshold values and early-warning<br />

10 th <strong>International</strong> Symposium on Landslides and Engineered Slopes, Xi’an,<br />

China, 30 June – 3 July.<br />

188. Uzielli, M. and Lacasse, S. (2007)<br />

Scenario-based probabilistic estimation of direct loss <strong>for</strong> geohazards.<br />

Georisk, Vol. 1, No. 3, September 2007, 142–154.<br />

ISSN 1749-9518 print/ISSN 1749-9526 online. DOI:<br />

10.1080/17499510701636581<br />

189. Low, B.K., Lacasse, S. and Nadim, F. (2007)<br />

Slope reliability analysis accounting <strong>for</strong> spatial variation.<br />

Georisk, Vol. 1, No. 4, December 2007, 177-189.<br />

ISSN 1749-9518 print/ISSN 1749-9526 online. DOI:<br />

10.1080/17499510701772089.<br />

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