International Centre for Geohazards - NGI

Partners in ICG 

Centre of Excellence – 

International Centre for 

Geohazards (ICG) 

Annual Report - 2005 

20031103-3 31 March 2006 

Client: The Research Council of Norway 

Contact person: Are Birger Carlson 

Contract reference: SFF – ICG 146035/420 

For the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute 

Report prepared by: 

Postal address: P.O. Box 3930 Ullevaal Stadion, N-0806 OSLO, NORWAY Telephone: (+47) 22 02 30 00 Postal account: 0814 51 60643 

Street address: Sognsveien 72, OSLO Telefax: (+47) 22 23 04 48 Bank account: 5096 05 01281 

Internet: http://www.ngi.no e -mail: ngi@ngi.no Business No. 958 254 318 MVA 

BS EN ISO 9001, Certified by BSI, Registration No. FS 32989 

Suzanne Lacasse 

Managing Director 

Farrokh Nadim 

Director, ICG 

Reviewed by: Suzanne Lacasse

International Centre for Geohazards Report No.: 20031103-3 

Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: - 

Annual Report - 2005 Rev. date: 

Page: 2 

Summary 

The "International Centre for Geohazards" (ICG) is one the 13 Centres of Excellence 

(Senter for Fremragende Forskning, SFF) established by the Research Council of 

Norway in 2003. The Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) is the host organisation 

for ICG. Partners in the centre are the University of Oslo (UiO), the Norwegian University 

of Science and Technology (NTNU), NORSAR, and the Geological Survey of 

Norway (NGU). 

Results and activities in 2005 

• The research plan was followed and most of the goals set for the year were achieved. 

With respect to four major goals of the centre, a) in-kind contribution from the partners, 

b) complementary projects from the industry, c) number of PhD candidates, and 

d) international networking, the results far exceeded the goals and expectations. 

• The focus of ICG’s research in 2005 was on: 

- Improving the understanding of geohazards. 

- Assessment of the risks associated with by geohazards to individuals and society. 

- Development and improvement of methods for modelling the mechanical processes 

underlying the physical phenomena of different geohazards and for evaluating 

the consequences of geohazards. 

The development of university graduate programmes for education and training of 

research personnel was also a key activity. 

• Joint workshops, seminars, and project meetings contributed to creating a good collaboration 

spirit among the five partners. 

• There is considerable interest and enthusiasm about the activities of ICG, both in 

Norway and abroad. 

Challenges for 2006 

The overall research plan remains essentially unchanged. A major milestone in 2006 is 

the midway evaluation of all 13 Centres of Excellence, which requires a detailed strategy 

from ICG about its activities for 2008-2012 and beyond. The main challenges foreseen 

for 2006 include: 

• Consolidation of research experience, summarising the lessons learned, and definition 

of the research axes for the years 2008-2012. 

• Research on complex issues such as vulnerability and risk assessment, tsunami runup 

estimation, disintegration of material during sliding, rainfall-induced landslides, 

earthquake response, etc. 

• Identification of the niches where the combined expertise of ICG partners could be 

put into practical use in the international arena. 

• International networking. 

• Further development of international university graduate programmes in geohazards. 

• Attracting PhD candidates, post-docs and guest researchers to Norway. 

• Active participation in the research programmes related to natural hazards in EU’s 7 th 

Frame Programme. 

• Running and planning new international conferences, seminars and workshops. 

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Contents 

1 BACKGROUND.........................................................................................................................4 

2 ORGANISATION OF ICG.........................................................................................................4 

3 ACTIVITIES OF BOARD OF DIRECTORS.............................................................................8 

4 TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES OF ICG IN 2005 ...........................................................................8 

4.1 Core research activities .....................................................................................................8 

4.2 The GeoExtreme Project...................................................................................................9 

4.3 Tsunami risk mitigation strategy for Thailand................................................................17 

4.4 Communication and relations with the media.................................................................23 

5 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND OTHER ICG 

ACTIVITIES IN 2005...............................................................................................................23 

5.1 ICG Publications.............................................................................................................23 

5.2 National and International contacts made on geohazards in 2005 ..................................23 

5.3 Other international activities...........................................................................................24 

5.4 Web site...........................................................................................................................24 

6 DOCTORAL CANDIDATES AND GUEST RESEARCHERS IN 2005................................24 

7 ACCOUNTING 2005................................................................................................................25 

7.1 Cash funding (kNOK).....................................................................................................25 

7.2 In kind (kNOK, approximate, these numbers are a minimum).......................................26 

8 PLANNED ACTIVITIES AND BUDGET FOR 2006.............................................................26 

8.1 Research Projects ............................................................................................................26 

8.2 International networking .................................................................................................26 

8.3 EU proposals and projects with financing from other sources........................................26 

8.4 Organising conferences and workshops in 2005 and 2006 .............................................27 

8.5 ICG budget for 2006 .......................................................................................................28 

Appendix A – Achievements in 2005 

Appendix B – Aims of ICG Projects in 2006 

Appendix C – ICG Publications in 2005 

Review and reference document 



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1 BACKGROUND 

The "International Centre for Geohazards" (ICG) is one the 13 Centres of 

Excellence (Senter for Fremragende Forskning, SFF) established by the 

Research Council of Norway in 2003. The motivation for establishing ICG and 

the basic research topics are given in the Annual Report for 2003 and are not 

repeated here. 

ICG is a consortium of five partners. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) 

is the host organisation for ICG. Other partners in the centre are University of 

Oslo (UiO), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 

NORSAR, and Geological Survey of Norway (NGU). The consortium may be 

expanded with "associated partners" subject to agreement by all five main partners. 

The Centre’s objective is to be an international centre of expertise on basic and 

applied research on geo-related natural hazards (geohazards), such as landslides 

and earthquakes. The aim is to develop knowledge that can help save 

lives and reduce damage to infrastructure and the environment. Another aim is 

to train graduate students and highly-qualified researchers from Norway and 

abroad. 

ICG and PRIO are the only Centres of Excellence hosted by a non-university. 

NGI, NORSAR and partly NGU need to operate on an earning basis (each 

man-hour is charged at commercial rates) rather than supported by the state 

national budget as for university staff. Therefore, the personnel costs for 

research carried out by engineers and scientists from those three partners in 

ICG are charged to the projects. For a given funding from The Research 

Council of Norway, there is considerably more room for assigning research 

staff at the centres hosted by universities than at ICG. This is one reason why 

many tasks are carried out by post-docs and guest researchers brought in at 

ICG, as the research hours are much less costly for visiting scientists and engineers 

than for regular staff at NGI, NORSAR and NGU. 

2 ORGANISATION OF ICG 

ICG has its own Board of Directors (Steering Committee). Each of the ICG 

partners, NGI, NTNU, UiO, NORSAR and NGU, has a representative on the 

Steering Committee. In addition, the Steering Committee has at least one 

external representative from Norway and one international representative. The 

Research Council of Norway may also appoint a member to the Steering Committee. 

ICG has associated partners, e.g. University of Tromsø, but they do not 

have a representative on the Steering Committee. 

As the host organisation, NGI appointed the director of ICG, and NGI’s representative 

is the chairman of the Steering Committee. 



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The activities of the ICG are grouped into three categories: 

1. Research projects 

2. Training and education 

3. International networking and dissemination of information 

The organisation chart and the project chart of ICG are shown on the following 

pages. The ICG projects and other ICG activities are elaborated further later in 

the report. 



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Board of Directors 

Kaare Høeg (UiO/NGI), Chairman Philippe Jeanjean (BP) 

Arne Bjørlykke (NGU) Steinar Nordal (NTNU) 

Anders Elverhøi (UiO) Steinar Schanche (NVE) 

Anders Dahle (NORSAR) Tor-Inge Tjelta (Statoil) 

ICG Project 1 

Project Manager 

Researchers 

Students 

Technical Adviser 

Prof. Kaare Høeg 

ICG Project 2 


Researchers 

Students 

Organisation chart of ICG as of 31 December 2005 

ICG Project 3 


Researchers 

Students 

NGI 

Suzanne Lacasse 

Managing Director 

Dr. Farrokh Nadim, Director 

Dr. Anders Solheim, Deputy Director 

Tini van der Harst, Administrative Assistant 

ICG Research Projects and Themes 

ICG Project 4 


Researchers 

Students 

ICG Project 5 


Researchers 

Students 

International Scientific Advisors 

Prof. Gholamreza Mesri (U.of Illinois) 

Prof. Herbert H. Einstein (MIT) 

Prof. Steven Kramer (U. of Washington) 

Prof. Kok-Kwang Phoon (Nat. U. of Singapore) 

Theme A - Theme Coordinator Theme B - Theme Coordinator Theme C - Theme Coordinator 

ICG Project N 


Researchers 

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Students


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ICG Project Project Managers Guest Researchers 

Vulnerability and risk analysis for landslides and earthquakes Dr. Suzanne Lacasse (NGI) Prof. Sebnem Duzgun, Dr. Marco Uzielli 

Rockslides and engineering geology – Stability, failure, sliding 

and consequences 

Dr. Lars H. Blikra (NGU) 

Dr. Marc-Henri Derron 

Landslides in soil slopes Mr. Kjell Karlsrud (NGI) Dr. Kalle Kronholm, Ms Sook Ling Lee 

Offshore geohazards Dr. Anders Solheim (NGI) Dr. Shaoli Yang, Dr. Michael Schnellmann 

Slide Dynamics and mechanics of disintegration Prof. Anders Elverhøi (UiO) Mr. Chang Shin Gue 

Tsunami modelling and prediction Dr. Carl Harbitz (NGI) 

Development of graduate studies in geohazards Prof. Steinar Nordal (NTNU) Dr. Tewodros Tefera, Prof. Michael Long 

PhD-candidates: 

Krishnia Aryal (NTNU) 

Graziella Devoli (UiO) 

Roger Ebeltoft (NTNU) 

Sylfest Glimsdal (UiO) 

Maj Gøril Glåmen (NTNU) 

Gustav Grimstad (NTNU 

Guro Grøneng (NTNU) 

Jean-Sébastien L'Heureux (NTNU) 

Harald Iwe (UiO) 

Vidar Kveldsvik (NTNU) 

Finn Løvholt (UiO) 

Arne Moe (NTNU) 

Trond Nordvik (NTNU) 

Bård Romsdal (UiO) 

Inger Lise Solberg (NTNU) 

Vikas Thakur (NTNU) 

Technical Adviser 

Prof. Kaare Høeg 

Project chart of ICG as of 31 December 2005 

Themes covering several projects Theme Coordinator 

Geophysics for geohazards 

GIT applications in geohazards 

Debris flows and rock slide dynamics 

Dr. Farrokh Nadim, Director 

Dr. Anders Solheim, Deputy Director 

Tini van der Harst, Administrative Assistant 

Dr. Isabelle Lecomte (NORSAR) 

Prof. Bernd Etzelmüller (UiO) 

Mr. Ulrik Domaas (NGI) 

International Scientific Advisors 

Prof. Gholamreza Mesri (U.of Illinois) 

Prof. Herbert H. Einstein (MIT) 

Prof. Steven Kramer (U. of Washington) 

Prof. Kok-Kwang Phoon (Nat. U. of Singapore 

Professors from Norway active in ICG: 

Anders Elverhøi (UiO) 

Bernd Etzelmüller (UiO) 

Leiv-Jacob Gelius (UiO) 

Bjørn Gjevik (UiO) 

Lars Grande (NTNU) 

Svein Hamran (UiO) 

Kaare Høeg (UiO) 

Andreas Kääb (UiO) 

Hans Petter Langtangen (UiO) 

Terje Midtbø (NTNU) 

Farrokh Nadim (NTNU & UiO) 

Bjørn Nilsen (NTNU) 

Steinar Nordal (NTNU) 

Geir Kleivstul Pedersen (UiO) 

Kåre Rokoengen (NTNU) 

Rolf Sandven (NTNU) 



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3 ACTIVITIES OF BOARD OF DIRECTORS 

The main responsibility of ICG’s Steering Committee is to set the priorities in 

the yearly research plans. The Steering Committee also acts as a technical 

advisor to the Director of ICG. 

The Steering Committee shall also discuss and deal with 

• annual budget 

• annual technical report(s) 

• annual financial report 

The annual technical and financial report (this document) is prepared by the 

Director of the Centre and delivered to the Managing Director of NGI, who is 

responsible for reporting the activities of ICG to The Research Council of 

Norway. 

The ICG Steering Committee is composed of: 

Prof. Kaare Høeg (UiO/NGI), Chairman 

Dr Arne Bjørlykke (NGU) 

Prof. Anders Elverhøi (UiO) 

Mr. Anders Dahle (NORSAR) 

Prof. Steinar Nordal (NTNU) 

Mr Steinar Schanche (NVE) 

Mr Tor-Inge Tjelta (Statoil) 

Dr Philippe Jeanjean (BP, USA) 

The Steering Committee held 2 meetings in 2005: 

Meeting No. 1/05: 16 March 2005 

Meeting No. 2/05: 16 November 2005 

The following meetings in 2006 are planned: 

Meeting No. 1/06: 15 March 2006 (already held) 

Meeting No. 2/06: 28 November 2006 

4 TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES OF ICG IN 2005 

4.1 Core research activities 

Appendix A presents the aims of the ICG projects in 2005 and the work 

underway for each project. More information about these projects is available 

on the ICG web site www.geohazards.no. 



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ICG divided its activities into eight projects, and significant progress was done 

on each: 

• Vulnerability and risk assessment for landslides and earthquakes 

• Stability of rock slopes 

• Stability of soil slopes 

• Offshore geohazards 

• Slide dynamics and mechanics of disintegration 

• Tsunami modelling and prediction 

• Development of graduate studies in geohazards 

• Prevention and mitigation (with focus on monitoring and early warning 

systems) 

In addition to these projects, three "themes" that involve several projects were 

given high priority, and a Theme Coordinator was designated for streamlining 

the lateral cooperation among the technical projects in each theme: 

• Applications of geophysics to geohazards 

• Applications of Geographical Information Technology (GIT) to geohazards 

• Debris flows and rock slide dynamics 

In 2005 the partners in the ICG were involved in several high profile national 

and international projects. Two of these projects are presented below. 

4.2 The GeoExtreme Project 

Geohazards, climate change and extreme meteorological events 

GeoExtreme is a 4-year research project funded by The Research Council of 

Norway. The project is executed by the International Centre for Geohazards 

(ICG). The goal of the GeoExtreme project is to predict the spatial and temporal 

distribution of landslides and rockslides in Norway in the next 50-100 years 

based on the expected changes in the climate. 

GeoExtreme (Geohazards, climate change and extreme weather events) 

"GeoExtreme" is a four-year research project (2005-2008), funded by The 

Research Council of Norway under "NORKLIMA", a programme established 

to study climate change and its effects. The project is executed by a consortium 

of five organisations, two of which are ICG partners: the Norwegian Geotechnical 

Institute (NGI/ICG), the Geological Survey of Norway (NGU/ICG), the 



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Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Centre of Excellence, BCCR), the 

Norwegian Meteorological Institute (Met.no), and the Centre for International 

Climate and Environmental Research at the University of Oslo (CICERO). 

ICG (NGU and NGI) is leading and coordinating the project. 

The most common and destructive geohazards in Norway are snow avalanches, 

clay, debris and rock slides, and floods, which together caused more than 2000 

deaths during the last 150 years (Fig. 1, Table 1). Among the different geohazards, 

snow avalanche is the one affecting most frequently the Norwegian 

society. Snow avalanches take lives and disrupt the infrastructure, particularly 

roads and railroads. Rockslides have caused large disasters by generating flood 

waves (tsunamis) in lakes and fjords on the west coast three times in the 20 th 

century, killing 175 people. Large unstable rock slopes are today identified as 

possible hazards, but the relationship between rock slope instability and 

climate is poorly understood. Rock falls occur quite frequently, and form a 

potential danger in large parts of Norway. Debris slides also occur frequently, 

and can often be directly linked to extreme precipitation events. Quick clay 

slides occur most frequently in south-eastern Norway, in the counties around 

the Oslo Fjord, as well as in Trøndelag. Quick clays are extremely sensitive 

clays formed from marine clays deposited after the last deglaciation, which 

have been subaerially exposed and leached. The largest known single quick 

clay disaster in Norway, the Verdal Slide, killed 112 people in 1893. Statistically, 

about 10 large slides and avalanches are expected to occur in Norway the 

next 50-100 years, each with the potential of causing 20-100 fatalities without 

preventive planning and actions. 

In addition to the loss of lives, geohazards have a large impact on infrastructure 

and the daily life in many parts of Norway. As a consequence of climate 

change, more extreme weather is expected over the next 50 years. This may 

lead to increased slide frequency, with large socio-economical impact, both 

locally and on the national level. The main goals of the GeoExtreme project are 

to establish the relationship between climate and slides in Norway, and to estimate 

costs in the past, present, and the near future. 

The proposed research in GeoExtreme will define the relationships between 

meteorological conditions and geohazards based on historical records. Highresolution 

climate and weather scenarios for the next 50 years will be prepared 

to assess the frequency and character of future geohazards events. This will 

first be done for selected regions, covering a range of geohazards types, geographical 

setting and level of societal preparedness; the results will then be 

extrapolated to Norway as a whole. 

There is an obvious need for an improved understanding of the relationships 

between meteorological conditions and occurrence of geohazards, as well as 

their socio-economical consequences. This will enable improved planning for 

mitigation measures to minimise future damage and loss of lives. 



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Figure 1. Number of deaths caused by avalanches 

and slides in the different Norwegian 

counties registered in historical archives 

(Source: Skrednett.no). The red 

rectangles show GeoExtreme work 

areas. 

The GeoExtreme project involves five different organisations, which expertise 

covers a wide range of natural and social sciences. Their combined efforts in 

the GeoExtreme project aim at integrating natural and social sciences with the 

following objectives: 

1. Establish relationships between meteorological conditions (triggering factors) 

and geohazards in the form of avalanches and slides based on past 

(historical) records for Norway. 

2. Produce high-resolution climatic scenarios for the next 50 years, as input to 

assessments of the frequency and dimensions of future geohazards events. 

3. Establish geohazards scenarios for the next decades in five regions of 

Norway based on the above historical records and climate scenarios. 

4. Assess the socio-economical consequences of geohazards for Norwegian 

society with reference to past experience and develop risk-based predictions 

for the socio-economical consequences of future climate- and geohazards 

scenarios. 

5. Suggest policy implications with a focus on the society’s ability to learn by 

experience and increase its preparedness. 



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Table 1 Large slide and avalanche disasters in Norway (1345-1986) 

An important part of the GeoExtreme project is the assessment of the socioeconomical 

consequences of geohazards in Norway, both in the past and in the 

future, under the predicted climate scenarios. Important parameters here are the 

costs of damage caused by natural disasters as compared to the costs of mitigation 

measures, the ability of the society to learn by experience, need for emergency 

preparedness, and impact on policy-makers. Bridging the gaps between 

natural and social sciences is an important aspect of the project. The project 

results will be disseminated through frequent articles in newspapers and popular 

science magazines, in addition to international scientific journals. 

Four case areas were chosen for detailed studies. These are the Oslo area, Otta 

in Gudbrandsdalen, Hjelledalen in Stryn and Tromsdalen in Tromsø (Fig. 1). 

The case areas have quite different climatic conditions, and they cover the full 

range of slide types to be studied. 

The GeoExtreme project is organised in four modules: 

Module A: Relationship between slides and weather – Analysis of historical data 

The main objectives of this module are to establish statistical relationships 

between various types of slides and weather, with particular reference to 

extreme weather events. This will be based on historical data, mainly the last 

100 years. Of particular importance is which weather parameters are most 



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important for triggering slides. To meet the objectives a database of all 

recorded slide events has been initiated (Fig. 2). The data base will also contain 

all available weather data and can be used as the tool necessary to establish 

statistical correlations between slide events and weather parameters such as 

precipitation and temperature, or various combinations of parameters. 

Figure 2. Norwegian slides registered in the data base. 

Sub-Aqueous slide 



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Module B: Climate scenarios 

Most climate scenarios for the future have focused on changes in average conditions, 

such as mean monthly temperatures and precipitation. The result is a 

prediction of warmer and more humid climate, varying somewhat from region 

to region of Norway. Module B attempts to take this research further and study 

the probability of more extreme events, such as extreme precipitation or rapid 

snow melting. Particular focus will be placed on understanding the development 

meteorological conditions leading to such extreme events. Work under 

Module B will use the existing data base acquired under The Research Council 

of Norway funded the RegClim Project, as well as produce new regional scenarios 

based on the global coupled climate model, "the Bergen Climate Model" 

(BCM), developed at BCCR. Whereas the global models usually have a grid 

resolution in the order of 300 × 300 km 2 , the down-scaled climate scenarios to 

be produced for GeoExtreme by "spectral nudging" techniques will have a grid 

resolution of 30 x 30 km 2 . The modelling will attempt to describe the historical 

climate and weather events, as well as producing realistic scenarios for the next 

50 years. 

Module C: Case studies, past, present and future hazard situation. 

The objectives of this module are to produce hazard maps for different slide 

types in the four selected case areas (Fig. 1), and to estimate the potential 

change in the hazard situation in the near future, based on the statistical relationships 

from Module A and the down-scaled climate scenarios from Module 

B. The estimates are first done locally for the four areas. The results will be 

extrapolated to provide rough estimates of the change in the hazard situation 

for the country as a whole. This module involves extensive field work to produce 

the hazard maps (Fig. 3). Historical records are also taken into account 

when establishing the hazard zones. GIS tools are important in both the analysis 

work and for visualisation of the results. The hazard maps are important and 

necessary tools for the planning of future development in the mapped areas. 

They are also the necessary background for estimates of socio-economic 

impact under Module D of the GeoExtreme project. 

Module D: Socio-economical consequences. 

The economical consequences of slides can be large, even if their probability 

of occurrence may be small. The risk may thus be considerable, but planning 

for this risk is a challenge in the local communities, as well as on a national 

level. Decision-making and responsibility for implementing mitigation measures, 

and responsibility after slide events, are often matters of conflict. The 

main aim of Module D is to estimate the societal costs caused by the potentially 

increased hazard (probability of sliding) under a future climate. The 

module will also focus on the conditions necessary to carry out mitigation 

measures most efficiently. The economic estimates will largely be based on the 

hazard maps for the local areas. A significant effort will be made in mapping 

the values at risk. The values can be related directly to the value of e.g. buildings, 

but also to the value of activity, such as industry. Another aspect is the 

effect of closure of roads, etc. Loss of lives will of course also be taken into 



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account here. Possible institutional "barriers" for a cost-effective planning and 

adapting to a new hazard situation will also be thoroughly covered through the 

work to be carried out under Module D. 

Figure 3. View of the Otta valley, 8km west of Otta. The till covered valley 

sides are dissected by up to 8m deep debris flow paths. The area 

was hit by the large flood and slide disaster "Storofsen" in 1789. 

The GeoExtreme project has just completed its first year of activity (Fig. 5).. 

This first phase of the project included mainly data compilation, field work and 

the establishment of necessary statistical tools. Two post-doctoral fellows are 

involved in the project, and two more are to start in 2006-2007. So far, field 

work has been carried out in the Otta area and in Hjelledalen. The field work in 

these area will be completed in 2006, and work in the two remaining case 

areas, Tromsdalen and Oslo areas, will be initiated in 2006. The slide database 

is established and weather data are being generated and entered into the database. 

The first statistical analyses have been performed and results will be disseminated 

already in 2006. The climate modelling is being performed (Fig. 4), 

but these require extensive time and computing power and will consequently 

run for a significant amount of time in 2006. The hazard maps for the case 

study areas, which are being produced, will be used in the socio-economical 

estimates of Module D. 



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TOTAL NO: 451 

STD: 4.6 

60W to 20W 

MEAN: 4.8 

90% PRC: 7.1 

STD: 0.7 

Figure 4. Major storm tracks in the North Atlantic in the period 1958-1999, 

modelled by the Bergen Climate Model. 

Figure 5. Part of GeoExtreme researchers on the remains of a snow avalanche 

in Hjelledalen, Stryn. The avalanche occurred in January 

2006, and was released behind the scar in the mountain in the 

background. Interaction between the four modules in the project is 

a prerequisite for success of the project. Project meetings are held 

twice per year, preferably in one of the case study areas. 



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The project has received significant publicity, both in local media related to the 

case areas, but also from national media (e.g. the late evening news "Kveldsnytt" 

on the national Norwegian TV channel NRK, and a magazine article in 

the largest Norwegian newspaper "VG", in 2005. GeoExtreme has established 

a web-site (www.geohazards.no), in which more information can be found (in 

Norwegian). 

4.3 Tsunami risk mitigation strategy for Thailand 

In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2006, the project 

"Tsunami risk mitigation strategy for Thailand" was launched in July 2005 as 

an 8-month, fast-track study. The purpose of the project was to assist the 

authorities in Thailand with developing a strategy for dealing with the future 

tsunami risk in a short term, as well as in a long term perspective. The study 

was initiated in response to a request from the Department of Mineral 

Resources (DMR) under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in 

Thailand and the scope-of-work was prepared in cooperation with DMR and 

the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programs in East and Southeast 

Asia (CCOP). The Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (RNMFA) 

provided the financing, while DMR covered its own costs in the project. CCOP 

served as Project Responsible Institution and contract partner against RNMFA. 

NGI served as the Technical Executing Organisation (TEO) with the support of 

the following organisations and specialists: 

• ICG partners: NORSAR, University of Oslo, NTNU 

• Other Norwegian organisations: Norwegian Institute for Urban and 

Regional Research (NIBR), Birger Heyerdahl Sivilarkitekter a.s., University 

of Bergen, SINTEF - Coast and Harbour Research Laboratory 

• Other international organisations and specialists: National Oceanography 

Centre, Southampton (UK), University of Bonn (Germany), François 

Schindelé (France) 

The 26 December 2004 tsunami caused about 220,000 casualties and devastated 

large areas along the coastlines of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, 

Sri Lanka, India, the Maldives and even some parts of the east African 

coast. The tsunami was initiated by a gigantic magnitude 9.3 earthquake caused 

by propagating stress release on the subduction zone created by the steadily 

ongoing NE movement of the Indo-Australian plate under the Burma/Sunda 

plate (along the Sunda Arc) (Fig. 6). 

The earthquake caused vertical seabed movements of up to 4-5m over an area 

of about 1200km by 300km. Along the most affected parts of the west coast of 

Thailand, the generated tsunami led to an inundation or flooding level from 

about 5 to about 12m above the mean sea level (Fig. 7). 



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Figure 6. Seismicity in the Northeast Indian Ocean Region between 1900 and 

2004. The epicentres of all earthquakes with magnitude M > 6 are 

shown. Epicentre of the 26 December 2004 M 9.3 and the 28 

March M 8.6 earthquakes are marked with green stars (Source: 

Lay et al 2005, Science, Vol. 308) 

The Sunda Arc is an active fault zone with frequent earthquakes (Fig. 6). Based 

on a detailed study of earthquake statistics, as well as plate tectonics, the 

following main conclusions were drawn: 

1. The 26 December 2004 earthquake was a megathrust event that released 

much of the energy that was accumulated along the northern part of the 

Sunda Arc subduction zone as a result of the steadily ongoing plate movements. 

Such megathrust events are periodic in nature and it is conservatively 

concluded that it will take at least 300 to 400 years before an event of 

similar magnitude and consequences will occur again. 

2. Within the next 50-100 years, the largest credible earthquake that could 

cause a tsunami hitting the coasts of Thailand is a magnitude 8.5 event on 

the Sunda Arc. The estimated return period for this event is about 200 

years. 

3. An M 8.5 earthquake could cause a tsunami which at the most gives an 

inundation level of 1.5 to 2.0m above sea level along the west coast of 



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Thailand. If the tsunami occurs at normal high tide, it would correspond to 

a water level of 2.5 to 3.0m above the mean sea level. 

4. For an M 8.5 earthquake and tsunami scenario, the potential risk to human 

life and property in Thailand will be small and can be regarded as tolerable. 

The main reason for the small risk is that land areas behind the beach front 

generally lie above level +3m along most of the west coast of Thailand. 

5. After about 100-200 years, the potential for earthquakes larger than M 8.5 

will gradually increase, and does the potential for generating larger tsunamis 

than that for the M 8.5 earthquake scenario. This implies that, as time 

passes by, the tsunami hazard will gradually increase from tolerable to unacceptable. 

Figure 7. Left: Seabed displacements used to model the 26 December 2004 tsunami. Maximum rise 

in sea level is 5m and maximum drop in sea level is 3.5m. 

Right: Snapshot of the calculated tsunami 1 hour and 20 minutes after the earthquake, 

just before it reaches the tip of Phuket. The crest is 3m above mean sea level, whereas the 

trough is 3m below mean sea level. 

Tsunami risk is defined as the product of tsunami hazard, i.e. the annual probability 

of occurrence of a tsunami, times its consequence in terms of economic 

loss and/or loss of human life. One cannot influence the earthquake and 

tsunami hazard, but one can mitigate their consequences. An assessment of the 

tsunami risk is terms of the potential for loss of human life found the societal 

risk due to potential future tsunamis to be tolerable for Thailand in the next 



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100-200 years. However, the risk increases rapidly afterwards and the longterm 

risk is definitely unacceptable if no risk mitigation measures are taken. It 

is the duty and responsibility of the present day society to be proactive in mitigating 

the unacceptable long term risks (Fig. 8). 

If no risk mitigation measures are planned and implemented in the reasonably 

near future, it is likely that the long term tsunami risk will be forgotten within 

the next 50 years or so, because no significant tsunamis are likely to occur 

within such a time frame. The collective memory of the society in relation to 

natural hazards with long return period has repeatedly been proven to be short. 

It is therefore recommended to already plan for implementation of mitigation 

measures that can reduce the exposure to, and consequences of, severe tsunamis 

for future generations. 

In the short term perspective of the next few years, it is important to take steps 

to ensure a lasting long term awareness of the tsunami risk. Such lasting mitigation 

or risk reduction measures may for instance be in the form of "monuments" 

constructed along the coast that will give a clear warning to future 

generations about the tsunami risk to come. Such monuments can also be 

designed to act as part of physical protection measures against tsunamis. 

One should also consider including tsunami risk in the school curriculum and 

textbooks and establishing a yearly national tsunami or natural hazard day. 

To ensure the long term awareness, other countries exposed to natural hazards, 

are strongly encouraged to centralise all their efforts in dealing with warning 

against all kinds of natural hazards, be it tsunami, flooding, landslides, storm 

surges etc. The same applies to hazard mapping, and how to deal with a 

catastrophic event once it occurs. 

In the short term perspective, specific plans for physical measures should be 

developed, which could be implemented over time to reduce the tsunami risk. 

At least some of the recommended physical measures should be implemented 

within the next 5 to 10 years, to serve as examples for the future. It is also 

important that appropriate action is taken to ensure that land areas are available 

for mitigation measures in a long term perspective. 

The study recommended specific mitigation measures for three typical areas 

along the west coast of Thailand: City of Patong on the Phuket Island, located 

on an alluvial fan at the base of a 4km wide bay; Bang Niang tourist resort 

areas stretching for about 12km north of Khao Lak in an area with long and 

wide beaches; Ban Nam Khem fishing village 

The recommended mitigation measures included the following main elements: 



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1. Implementing new requirements to land-use planning and establishment of 

new building codes to reduce exposure to and/or consequences of future 

tsunamis. 

2. Establishing escape routes that are well marked and easily accessible and 

which lead to areas that are safe from tsunami. Such safe areas may be artificially 

elevated land areas, or buildings and structures accessible to all. 

They should be possible to reach within a distance of about 500m (Fig. 9). 

3. Constructing artificial walls or dikes to limit the impact and inundation 

level of tsunamis (Fig. 9). 

4. Raising the ground level (vertical land reclamation) where buildings are to 

be constructed in the future. This may be a particularly attractive option for 

the further development of tourist resort areas, and to some extent also in 

the Nam Khem fishing village. 

5. Ensuring that future buildings will not be damaged and that sleeping areas 

are at a level which is safe from tsunamis. This in consideration of to what 

extent measures 3 or 4 have been implemented to limit the tsunami inundation 

level. 

Risk to Human Life 

100 

10 

1 

0.1 

0.01 

0.001 

0.0001 

1E-005 

1E-006 

Conservative risk estimate 

Average risk estimate 

Low risk estimate 

Unacceptable 

Acceptable 

Tolerable 

1 2 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 

Years after 26 December 2004 

Figure 8. Estimated risk to human life due to future tsunamis assuming no 

mitigation measures are implemented. The vertical axis represents 

the risk in terms of the expected number of fatalities per 

year, averaged over several hundred years. 



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Figure 9. Examples of master plan. 

Left: Patong City. The main elements are elevated green-belt areas approximately 400 

metres inland from the beach, which will serve as safe escape hills, and a system of 

easily accessible and well marked escape routes. Normal car traffic should be banned 

from these escape routes. 

Right: Ban Nam Khem fishing village. Layout of possible protection dike around Ban 

Nam Khem with escape routes to safe high areas. 

One of the main conclusions of the study was that country-specific studies 

should be carried out for other countries in the region to form a rational basis 

for long term development and mitigation measures and design of warning 

systems. Such studies might show that the short- to medium-term tsunami risk 

for the northern part of the west coast of Sumatra, the Andaman and Nicobar 

Islands, Sri Lanka, and parts of the Indian coastline may be significantly higher 

than in Thailand. 

The results of the project were disseminated through a number of workshops 

and seminars arranged with invited participants from the countries around the 

Indian Ocean. The conclusions of the project were presented at the "International 

Dissemination Seminar – Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures with Focus 

on Land Use and Rehabilitation", which was held in March 2006 in Bangkok, 

Thailand. About 300 local Thai and foreign participants from Cambodia, 

China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam 

took part in the seminar. More information about the seminar and download of 

the presentation are available at: http://www.ccop.or.th/news_detail.asp?ID=84 



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The full report of the project in PDF format (~15 MB) is available for free 

download at: http://www.ccop.or.th/download/pub/tsunami_final_report.pdf 

4.4 Communication and relations with the media 

Following the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there was nearly a 

media storm around ICG, with many radio and television interviews of, and 

newspaper articles by ICG experts to satisfy the public need for information. 

The tsunami event clearly demonstrated the benefits of having a centre of 

expertise on geohazards and demonstrated the importance and necessity of 

having a multi-disciplinary approach, with interaction of all relevant areas of 

geoscience. Other major natural disasters in 2005, such as the earthquake in 

Pakistan on 18 October 2005 and the disastrous landslides in Central America 

triggered by Hurricane Stan also contributed to the interest of journalists and 

the public at large in the activities of ICG. 

The ICG communication strategy document, which was approved by the Board 

of Directors of ICG in 2004, provides guidelines for presenting ICG’s activities 

to the public. This is accomplished mainly through the ICG web site, a positive 

attitude by key ICG experts towards interviews in mass media, feature articles 

in newspapers, and articles in popular media. 

5 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND OTHER 

ICG ACTIVITIES IN 2005 

5.1 ICG Publications in 2005 

The ICG Publication List for 2005 is given in Appendix C. 

5.2 National and International contacts made on geohazards in 2005 

In addition to the contacts listed in the Annual Reports for 2003 and 2004, the 

following new international and national contacts were made: 

• India – Memorandum of Understanding was signed with Department of 

Science and Technology of India to cooperate on research related to landslides, 

tsunamis and remote sensing. 

• France – Joseph Fourier University, Grenoble, France (IS-BILAT cooperation) 

• USA – A consortium of American universities submitted an ambitious proposal 

to US National Science Foundation (NSF) for a 5-year cooperation 

with ICG in research and education related to offshore geohazards. The 

project is coordinated by University of Massachusetts at Amherst. The proposal 

has been accepted by NSF the contract was awarded in February 

2006. 



Date: 2006-03-31 

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• Norway – Memoranda of Understanding were signed with University of 

Tromsø and with FFI for cooperation in geophysical site investigation 

methods offshore. 

5.3 Other international activities 

ICG is an active member of the international non-profit organisation ICL 

(International Consortium for Landslides), which was established by UNESCO 

in Japan. 

NGI/ICG initiated two regional network programmes, one in Asia and one in 

Central America, to increase the local competence in managing risks related to 

different types of landslides. 

The ICG partners NORSAR and NGI are involved in several institutional cooperation 

projects in India with focus on problems related to earthquakes, landslides 

and tsunamis. 

At the end of the "2 nd International Conference on Submarine Mass Movements" 

held in Oslo in September 2005 (see Section 8.4 below), a 4-year international 

project under IUGS/UNESCO sponsorship (Project IGCP 511) was 

launched. ICG was asked to act as the project secretariat for the first 2 years 

(until September 2008). 

5.4 Web site 

The web site of ICG is www.geohazards.no. The web site was redesigned in 

May 2005, and it is the main channel for disseminating information about ICG 

to the general public, as well as the specialists. 

6 DOCTORAL CANDIDATES AND GUEST RESEARCHERS IN 2005 

ICG’s PhD-candidates in 2005 

Name Nationality University Financial source Appointment Percent 

period in 2005 engagement 

Krishna Aryal Nepal NTNU NTNU 01/01 – 31/12 100 

Graziella Devoli Italy UiO ICG 01/01 – 31/12 100 

Roger Ebeltoft Norway NTNU NTNU/Vegvesenet 01/01 – 31/12 100 

Sylfest Glimsdal Norway UiO UiO/SIMULA 01/01 – 31/12 100 

Maj Gøril Glåmen Norway NTNU NTNU 01/09 – 31/12 100 

Guro Grøneng Norway NTNU ICG 01/08 – 31/12 100 

Harald Iwe Norway UiO NGI/ICG 01/01 – 31/12 50 

Vidar Kveldsvik Norway NTNU NGI/ICG 01/03 – 31/12 75 

Finn Løvholt Norway UiO NGI/ICG 01/01 – 31/12 75 

Arne Moe Norway NTNU NTNU/ICG 01/01 – 31/12 75 

Bård Romstad Norway UiO UiO/ICG 01/01 – 31/12 100 



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Name Nationality University Financial source Appointment Percent 

period in 2005 engagement 

Inger Lise Solberg Norway NTNU ICG/NTNU/NGU/NVE 01/01 – 31/12 100 

Vikas Thakur India NTNU NTNU 01/01 – 31/12 100 

Trond Nordvik Norway NTNU NTNU 01/09 – 31/12 100 

Jean-Sébastien L’Heureux Canada NTNU NTNU/Vegvesenet 22/08 – 31/12 100 

Gustav Grimstad Norway NTNU NTNU 01/08 – 31/12 100 

Hedda Breien Norway UiO Vista Programme 15/10 – 31/12 100 

José Cepeda El Salvador UiO ICG / Quota Prog. 15/01 – 31/12 100 

Former ICG PhD-candidate, Trygve Ilstad, successfully defended his PhD 

thesis in June 2005, and received his doctoral degree from UiO. 

Post-doctoral and guest researchers at ICG in 2005 

Position Name Nationality Academic Appointment Financial source 

degree period in 2005 

Post-doc. Dr Michael Schnellmann Switzerland Ph.D. 01/02 – 31/09 NGI 

Post-doc. Dr Kalle Kronholm Denmark Ph.D. 01/07 – 31/12 NGI / RCN 

Post-doc. Dr Shaoli Yang China Ph.D. 01/01 – 31/12 NGI / ICG 

Post-doc. Dr Tewodros Tefera Ethiopia Ph.D. 01/01 – 31/12 NTNU / ICG 

Post-doc. Dr Marco Uzielli Italy Ph.D. 03/10 – 31/12 NGI 

Post-doc. Dr Marc-Henri Derron Switzerland Ph.D. 01/01 – 31/12 NGU 

Post-doc. Prof. Sebnem Duzgun Turkey Ph.D. 01/01 – 31/09 NGI 

Visiting 

professor 

Prof. Michael Long Ireland Ph.D. 22/07 – 25/12 NTNU 

Guest 

researcher 

Mr Chang Shin Gue Malaysia MSc 01/01 – 30/09 ICG 

Guest 

researcher 

Ms Sook Ling Lee Malaysia MSc 01/01 – 30/09 ICG 

7 ACCOUNTING 2005 

7.1 Cash funding (kNOK) 

The numbers below are minimum estimates. The actual cash funding from ICG 

partners and other industrial sources are greater. 

Activity 

Res. Council NGI 

Funding 

NGU/NORSAR/ 

UiO/NTNU 

Other/ 

Industrial 

SUM 

Technical Projects 10,632 5,100 5,700 5,400 26,832 

Non-technical activities 2,240 1 

700 - - 2,940 

Administration & Steering 

Committee meetings 

1,357 500 

- - 1,857 

Total 14,229 6,300 5,700 5,400 31,629 

1. About 50% of the costs were related to the extraordinary activities in the aftermath of the 

Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2006. 



Date: 2006-03-31 

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7.2 In kind (kNOK, approximate, these numbers are a minimum) 

Contribution NGI NGU NTNU UiO NORSAR 

Personnel 500 200 0 * 

0 * 

200 

IT 500 500 100 100 500 

Office spaces 2,000 600 500 500 300 

Laboratory/Equipment 500 50 100 100 100 

Project work / proposals/ etc. 1,000 200 500 500 700 

Stipend to PhD-candidates 900 130 1,900 1,300 - 

TOTAL 5,400 1,680 3,100 2,500 1,800 

* 

Included in "Project work / proposals/ etc." 

8 PLANNED ACTIVITIES AND BUDGET FOR 2006 

8.1 Research Projects 

The following projects were approved by the Board of Directors for 2006: 

• Vulnerability and risk assessment for geohazards 

• Earthquake hazard, risk and loss 






• Prevention and mitigation (with focus on monitoring and early warning) 

• Further development of graduate programmes in geohazards 

In addition, 3 cross-expertise areas that involve several projects have assigned 

"theme coordinators": 




Appendix B summarizes the work plans for each project and theme. 

8.2 International networking 

Travels to disaster prevention and natural hazard centres in USA, Canada, 

Hong Kong, Taiwan, Switzerland and Japan are planned. Active participation 

(lecturing) in 10-20 international conferences is planned for 2006. In most 

cases, ICG representatives are asked to give keynote or state-of-the-art lectures. 

8.3 EU proposals and projects with financing from other sources 

This will be a continuous activity throughout the existence of ICG. 



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ICG is already involved in the Integrated Project LESSLOSS, and the STREP 

Project IRASMOS in European Commission’s 6 th Frame Programme. 

ICG is also partner in 2 STREP proposals to EC’s 6FP, which have been 

accepted and are currently in the contract negotiation phase, and one I3 (Integrated 

Infrastructure Initiative) project that starts in June 2006. These two 

STREPs have the acronyms of TRANSFER (project on tsunami modelling coordinated 

by University of Bologna, Italy) and SAFER (project on seismic 

hazard coordinated by Geo-Forschungs-Zentrum, Germany). The I3-project is 

NERIES (Network of Research Infrastructure for European Seismology), and it 

involves mainly the ICG-partner NORSAR. 

In December 2004, the proposal for a project called GeoExtreme by ICG partners 

NGU and NGI, together with the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 

CICERO and Norwegian Meteorological Institute, was accepted by the 

NORKLIMA programme of the Research Council of Norway (see Section 4.2 

of this report). 

8.4 Organising conferences and workshops in 2005 and 2006 

In cooperation with the Norwegian Geological Society, ICG organised the 2 nd 

International Conference on Submarine Slides and Mass Movements in Oslo, 

in September 2005. 110 participants contributed 85 papers, 50 oral presentations, 

and 35 posters. About 25 of the papers will be published (after peer 

review) in a special volume of Norwegian Journal of Geology in 2006. 

ICG's director was on the Organizing Committee for the International Conference 

on Landslide Risk Management in Vancouver in June 2005, where a 

series of State-of-the-Art (SOA) papers by international authorities were presented. 

ICG was responsible for two of the eight SOA papers and one of the 

three invited lectures. 

In cooperation with Engineering Conferences International (ECI), ICG is 

organising an international conference on "Geohazards – Technical, Economical 

and Social Risk Evaluation" in Lillehammer in June 2006. This conference 

is expected to attract 100-120 participants from all over the world. 

The ICG project on vulnerability and risk for geohazards organised a national 

workshop on 15 November 2005 to exchange ideas and experience on risk 

assessment and risk management for landslides and earthquakes. The workshop 

was very well received by the professionals and decision-makers in Norway 

who deal with these problems at different levels in local and national government 

agencies. 



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8.5 ICG budget for 2006 

The table below reflects funding from The Research Council of Norway only. 

Considerable cash and in-kind contributions from the ICG partners and other 

sources of funding come in addition to the amounts below. 

ICG budget in 2006 based on funding from The Research Council of Norway 

Activity 

Funding from 

Research 

Council (kNOK) 

8 technical projects 10,645 See Section 8.1. 

Graduate programme on 

geohazards 

500 

Coordination of 3 themes 610 See Section 8.1. 

Comments SUM 

= activities non-technical for Total 

Non-technical activities: IT 

solutions, EU Proposals, web 

site & information, conference 

participation 

International networking 

Administration & Steering 

Committee meetings 

Contingency 

950 

250 

1,500 

300 

Includes activities 

related to midway 

evaluation of ICG in 

2006. 

Total kNOK 14,755 

Total for technical 

projects = kNOK 11,755 

The total expenditure charged to the funds provided by The Research Council 

of Norway is budgeted to be kNOK 14,755 in 2005. This is kNOK 2,755 more 

the annual funding provided to ICG. Between April 2003 (start of ICG activities) 

and December 2005, the ICG consortium used NOK 35.6 mill. of the 

NOK 36 mill. funding for 2003 – 2005. The sum of the funds used in 2003- 

2005 and the budgeted expenditure above is NOK 50.3 mill., which is slightly 

more that the NOK 48 mill. allocated for the period 2003-2006. The budget 

will be revised in June 2006 to consider reducing the budgeted over-expenditure 

in 2006. 

f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2005-annual-report\icg-annual_report3_2005.doc FNa/tha 

kNOK 3,000


Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 


Appendix A – Achievements in 2005 Page: A1 

Appendix A - Achievements in 2005 

The results of the different ICG projects are summarized with a shortened 

version of the PowerPoint presentations prepared for the Board of Directore of 

ICG. 

ICG divided its activities into eight projects: 

• Vulnerability and risk assessment for landslides and earthquakes 






• Development of graduate studies in geohazards 

• Prevention and mitigation (with focus on monitoring and early warning 

systems) 

In additional to these projects, three "themes" that involve several projects 

were defined: 




f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2005-annual-report\appa_icg-achievements.doc FNa/tha

ICG Project: Risk and vulnerability 

assessment for landslides and earthquakes 

Project Manager: Suzanne Lacasse (NGI) 

Other Personnel: Unni Eidsvig, Sebnem Duzgun, Martin Whörle, Amir 

Kaynia, Marco Uzielli, Conrad Lindholm, Hilmar Bungum, and others. 

3 PhD students 

Main Objectives: 

Develop methods that are easy to understand and can be used in practice 

Work out comprehensive examples so that others can use the methods 

(choose applications from other projects in ICG) 

6 papers (mainly conference proceedings) 

7 reports. 

“Earthquake hazard, risk and loss” is back as a separate ICG project 

from January 2006 

ICG Project: Stability of rock slopes 

Project manager: Lars Harald Blikra (NGU) 

A huge number of project personnel involved; >20, national and 

international. 

2 PhD. Students 

Main achievements: 

• Large activity on the Åkneset Case. 

• 9 papers printed or in press in peer-reviewed journals 

• 3 papers in conf. proc. 

• 5 reports 

• 3 MSc. theses 

• Several oral presentations. 

ICG4: Rock-slope failures – Models and 

Risk, contd. Åknes 

12 mill. m 3 

8-16cm year 

30-45 mill. m 3 

2-4 cm year 

Risk and vulnerability assessment for 

landslides and earthquakes 

Achievements: 

• Interdepartemental meeting (Oct 

2005), with 7 Norwegian ministries 

present: Various slides in Norway, risk 

assessment, emergency 

preparedness, etc. 

Workshop 15 November 2005 to: 

• establish a Risk assessment 

framework. 

• Presentations of several case studies 

in progress. 

• Landslide hazard zonation 

• Soil response to earthquakes and 

earthquake triggered slides 

• Earthquake loss estimation 

Estimated run-up (m) 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 

0 

Example: Run-up heights in Hellesylt for 

different run-up volumes. 

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 

Rock volume (mill. m3) 

Stability of rock slopes, contd. 

Åkneset: 

• Boring campaign with coring and logging, refreaction seismic, 

resistivity profiling, microseismic network; quantification of volumes 

and movement, GPS stations and radar reflectors, improved 

numerical modelling and stability assessments. 

Other: 

• Rock avalanche studies and tsunami hazard modelling in 

Storfjorden, W. Norway. 

• Lidar and DEM work on stability of rock slopes. 

• Stability analyses of Akneset, Oppstadhornet and Nordnes 

(Troms). 

• 2 MSc. Projects on rock slope failures in Nepal. 

• Tight coupling to the “GeoExtreme” Project. Permafrost issues of 

particular importance here. 

Run-up, upper 

Run-up, lower 

Plans for hazard analysis in the Storfjorden area: 

• Laser scanning from airplain 

• Structural geology 

• Events in the fjord 

• Rock-slope morphology 

• Potential failures 

• Movement data 

• Tsunami modelling 

1

ICG Project: Stability of soil slopes 

Project manager: Kjell Karlsrud (NGI) 

Large number of other personnel, many at NTNU and NGI 

5 PhD students. 

5 peer-reviewed papers, plus 5 in prep. 

2 Conf. proc. 

4 presentations 

Activity in: 

• Landslide mechanisms, causes and consequences – Papers 

• Geologic mapping, models and processes 

• Modeling of pore pressure response 

• Stability analyses 

• Instrumentation of slopes 

• Stabilizing measures- Effects of vegetation 

• Close connection to the GeoExtreme project 

Soil slopes, Numerical modelling 

METEOROLOGICAL 

ANALYSIS 

FLOW ANALYSIS 

STABILITY 

ANALYSIS 

METEOROLOGICAL DATA 

• Monthly normal values 

• Monthly extreme values 

• Rainfall distribution within months 

• Daily values 

GEOMETRICAL DATA 

• Slope height 

• Slope inclination 

• Infiltration area 

GEOTECHNICAL DATA 

• SWCC 

• Permeabilty 

curve 

• Grain size distribution 

• Porosity 

• Saturated permeability 

• Cohesion 

• Friction angle – unsaturated 

• Friction angle - unsaturated 

• Unit weight -saturated 

• Unit weight - unsaturated 

Flow chart: Working procedure and necessary data 

Offshore Geohazards, contd 

Main activities: 

• Development of Finneidfjord/Sørfjord as field laboratory; analysing 

data, some field work, writing paper(s) 

• Improved resolution through processing/imaging techniques 

• Seismic attributes in offshore geohazard studies 

• S-waves for geohazards 

• Correlation of ”Geo-parameters” 

• Gas Hydrate studies, as part of the Euromargins project. 

Soil slopes: Numerical modelling. 

Most recent man made quick clay slide… Nov 2005 

Nærøy, Nord-Trøndelag 

ICG Project: Offshore Geohazards 

Project manager: Anders Solheim (NGI) 

Personnel: ca. 10, primarily NGI, NORSAR, NGU 

2 post.docs 

1 PhD student. (one more from 2006) 

• Publications: 13 (12 in MPG 22: “Ormen Lange Issue”, also 

edited by ICG-6) 

• Submitted and in prep.: 5 

• Reports: 1 

• Presentations: >10 (about 50/50 oral/poster) 

• “2nd Int. Symposium on Submarine Mass Movements and Their 

Consequences” proceeding as special issue of NJG in 2006. 

• MoUs established with FFI, Horten and UiT. 

Finneidfjord: Sediment coring and piezo installation 

Failure plane 

Core 0405001 and 

piezometer installation 

5.2m sample recovery 

NGU 9803113 

Piezometer 

module depths 

3.1m 

5.3m 

Failure plane 

2

”Mini” SH-vibrator - Rigging 

ICG Project – Slide dynamics and 

mechanics of mass disintegration 

Project manager: Anders Elverhøi (University of Oslo) 

5 key staff (NGI, UiO, NTNU) 


2 MSc completed. 

Main activities/achievements 2005: 

• Summarizing our studies on subaqueous clay-rich debris flows 

– Finalizing PhD study (Ilstad) 

– Various papers including special summary paper 

– Oral contributions 

• Increased focus on terrestrial debris flows 

– Completion of three master theses 

– Start up of two PhD studies 

– Oral contributions 

Flow and disintegration of sand-rich debris flows and 

the possible origin of deep water sandy bodies, great 

relevance to the petroleum industry. 

Use of seismic attributes to define “weak” layers 

Example of a 

combination of several 

attributes to enhance the 

definition of the Storegga 

slip planes 

• Amplitude envelope, App. Polarity, Similarity and dip angle are the most 

useful post-stack attributes, both in 2D and 3D data. 

• Pre-stack attributes, AVO analyses, etc. need more work for the Ormen 

Lange case, but has clearly the best potential for extracting geotechnical 

information 

• All velocity data, and particularly S-wave data, would be very useful. 

Slide dynamics and mechanics of mass 

disintegration, contd. 

Important problems: a selected list: 

• What causes the incredible mobility of submarine debris flows? 

• What is the origin of deep-water sand bodies? 

• Is it possible to predict the dynamics and runout of debris flows 

based on rheological concepts? 

• What is the origin of the volume effect? 

ICG Project: Tsunami modelling and 

prediction 

Project manager: Carl Harbitz (NGI) 

Other staff: 8, UiO, NGI, Simula. 


Close connection to personnel in ICG4, 6 and 9 

6 papers published/in press 

Numerous presentations, interviews, media items 

Tsunami modelling activity in: 

• West coast fjords, particularly Akneset – Tafjord area 

• Boknafjorden, related to Archaeology problems, with Stavanger 

Museum. 

• Tsunamis from coastal slides – Trondheimsfjorden 

• Yermak Slide, planning in 2005, modelling in 2006 – Euromargins 

• Complete database of Norwegian events established. 

• Indian Ocean tsunami 26.12.2004. 

3

The Dec 26 2004 

Indian Ocean 

Tsunami 

• Change of focus for ICG P10 tsunami 

– To understand what happened 

– To understand what other groups are doing 

– To meet public requests 

– To be visible 

• Outcome 

– Improved understanding and procedures 

– Media interest 

– Other consulting jobs 

ICG Project: Development of graduate 

studies in Geohazards at UiO and NTNU 

Project manager: Steinar Nordal (NTNU) 

• International MSc progamme in “Geotechnics and Geohazards” 

started at NTNU in 2005 

• Programme is a success at both universities 

• 15 MSc students by the end of 2005 

• 6 MSc completed in 2005 (UiO) 

• 19 PhD students, evenly distributed between UiO and NTNU 

Environmental Geology and Geohazards at UiO 

Four new M.Sc. courses were developed with ICG support in 2004: 

• Engineering Geology and Geomechanics 

• Environmental Hazards and Risk Analysis 

• Landslides and Debris Flow 

• Geohazards Mitigation 

The number of students specializing in Geohazards as of November 2005: 

2005: 6 students finished their Master thesis 

3 Norwegian, 3 international students 

7 students in 1 st /2 nd year 

Tsunamis, contd. 

Applications in commercial projects: 

• Offshore Egypt 

• Offshore India (Reliance) 

• Mitigation in Thailand 

• Mitigation of geohazards in India 

– education and collaboration 

North Sea Fan scenario: 

International MSC Programme 

Environmental Geology and Geohazards at UiO 

• Study offered at UiO from fall 2003, now in its 3 rd year 

4th term 

3rd term 

2nd term 

1st term 

Project work 

Environmental 

hazards and risk 

analysis 

Environmental 

geology 

M.Sc. thesis 

Landslide and 

mass transport 

Environmental 

geophysics 

Terrain analysis 

Geohazard 

mitigation 

Engineering 

geology and 

geomechanics 

Fluids and fluid flow 

in geosystems 

International MSc Programme 

Geohazards and Geotechnics at NTNU 

4th term 

3rd term 

2nd term 

1st term 

TKT 4135 

Mechanics of 

materials 

(Irgens, 

Holthe) 

TKT 4130 

Continuum 

mechanics 

(Leira) 

TBA 4115 

FEM in 

Geotechnical 

Engineering 

(Emdal/Nordal, 

rev 2006) 

TBA 4110 

Soil investigations 

(Sandven, rev 

2005) 

MSc thesis work 

TBA4700 

Geotechnical engineering, specialization 

Project work and short, advanced courses 

TBA 5155 

Landslides and 

slope stability 

(Grande, new 

2006) 

TBA 5100 

Theoretical soil 

mechanics 

(Emdal, new 

2005) 

TGB 5100 

Rock 

engineering AC 

(Nilsen) 

TKT 4201 

Structural 

dynamics 

(Remseth) 

TBA 5150 

Geohazards 

and risk 

analysis 

(Nadim, new 

2005) 

4

1 2 3 4 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

6 

Name 

Amarebh Refera Sorta 

Samson Abate Degago 

Øyvind Bredvold 

Anders Samstad Gylland 

Mohammad Abdul Aziz 

Tseday Worku Damtew 

Karete Løkting Larsen 

Nuredin Mohamed Beyan 

7 

8 

5 

Country 

Ethiopia 

Ethiopia 

Norway 

Norway 

Bangladesh 

Ethiopia 

Norway 

Ethiopia 

Graduate Education 

PhDs in Environmental Geology and Geohazards at UiO 

Long-term plans 

The existing PhD programmes at both UiO and NTNU are 

used to receive PhD candidates in Geohazards. 

PhD dissertation, june 2005 - UiO: 

• Trygve Ilstad: 

On the dynamics and morphology on submarine debris flows 

Status PhD candidates ICG - UiO: 

• Bård Romstad (GIS, Etzelmüller) 

• Finn Løvholt (Tsunamis, Pedersen) 

• Sylfest Glimstad (Tsunamis, Langtangen) 

• Graziella Devoli (GIS/Gravity mass flows, Høeg) 

• Harald Iwe (SAR, Hamran) 

• Jose Cepeda (Gravity mass flow modelling, Høeg/Elverhøi) 

• Hedda Breien (Gravity mass flow, experimental studies/model 

tests Elverhøi/Høeg) 

• Arne Moe (Gravity mass flow modeling, Harbitz) (part-time 50 %) 

Theme Timeline 

2005 2006 2007 2008 

Identification 

and 

measurement 

Tools for 

evaluation 

/processing 

of complex 

data 

Case study in 

prevention 

/mitigation 

GinSAR, Satellite based SAR 

image processing. Verification of 

radar methods versus traditional 

instrumentation 

Continue with SAR or consider 

other remote sensing 

technology 

Traditional sensor technology, e.g. 

geophones, piezometers, displacement 

measurements coordinated to key 

parameters identified by models 

Tools for processing/interpreting 

visual data sets from satellites 

Norwegian Railway 

data set processing 

(geophones/acoustic) 

Åkneset/Tafjord data 

(combination of radar and 

traditional sensor technology 

Implementation of early warning 

system using traditional sensing. 

Railway or Åkneset data sets; to be 

chosen based on availability and quality 

of data. 

Integration Implementation of area survey 

techniques (SAR/GinSAR) in case 

study. 

Graduate Education 

PhDs in Geohazards and Geotechnics at NTNU 

The existing PhD programmes at both UiO and NTNU are used to 

receive PhD candidates in Geohazards. New courses planned from 

2006 

Status PhD candidates ICG - NTNU: 

• Arne Moe (Mechanics, Irgens NTNU & UiO) 

• Inger Lise Solberg (Engineering geology, Rokoengen) 

• Vidar Kveldsvik (Rock mechanics, Nilsen) 

• Guro Grøneng (Rock mechanics, Nilsen) 

• Trond Nordvik (GIS, Midtbø) 

• Krishna Aryal (Geotechnics, Sandven) 

• Vikas Thakur (Geotechnics, Nordal) 

• Maj Gøril Glåmen (Geotechnics, Nadim/Nordal) 

(pregnancy leave 2005/2006) 

• Roger Ebeltoft (Geotechnics, Nordal) 

• Jean-Sebastien L’Heureux (Geotechnics, Grande) 

• Gustav Grimstad (Geotechnics, Nordal) 

ICG Project: Prevention and mitigation 

(with focus on monitoring and early warning) 

Project manager: James M. Strout (NGI) 

Goals: 

• The development of tools for: 

– Improving the identification of geohazards 

– Measurement systems to reduce risk (e.g. early warning) 

– technology/solutions that can be applied to limit or prevent 

geohazards 

• Integration of these tools and resources 

Prevention and mitigation, contd. 

Achievements: 

• Remote observation techniques 

– Synthetic apeture radar (SAR) 

• PSinSAR application for geohazards (NGU) 

• GinSAR hardware (PhD: NGI/UiO) 

• GinSAR processing software (NORSAR) 

– European/international activities 

• IGOS-Geohazards initiative (NGI) 

• GEOSS/GEMS (Norwegian Space Centre) (NGI) 

5

Prevention and mitigation, contd. 

• Early Warning 

– Railroad rockslide monitoring (NGI) 

– Tsunami warning systems (NORSAR/NGI) 

– Potential instabilities in Trondheim (NGU/NTNU) 

– Landslide/Flood (Åknes) (NGU/NORSAR/NGI) 

– Participation in EU application (NGI) 

• Educational component 

– Discussions about PhD (All) 

Geophysics for Geohazards 

Theme Coordinator: Isabelle Lecomte (NORSAR) 

Connections to several ICG projects, and both PhD and MSc theses. 

Anne-Laure Buoillon (French MSc student 

Goals: 

• Establish a forum with contacts at each partner for project 

proposals, state-of-the-art and quality control of projects. 

• Help the ICG project leaders to get the right person(s) to solve their 

specific “geohazard assessment” problem, and contribute to some 

co-ordination across projects. 

• Motivate for research within geophysical development at ICG. 

Establish national and international contacts. 

• Help finding students and defining topics. 

A very active Theme Coordinator has ensured GfG 

efficiency. 

Monitoring rockfalls/slides on transport 

routes. 

20m 

562.184 562.221 562.660 

Kiosk m/ 

instrumentskap 

34 – 36 o 

1.40m 

1.70m 


37 o 

Vertikal geofon 

Kum 

Activities: 

• “Case studies”: 

– Sogn Hagekoloni: test of equipments (UiO, NGI). 

– Moreppen: GPR, seismics, resistivity (not geohazards) 

– Bø (Telemark): GPR, seismics (not geohazards but 

moraine) 

– Fjærland: moraine, debris flows 2004. 

– Åknes: rock slide. 

• Education 

– Master UiO: environmental geophysics. 

– UiO/UMB/HiT: hydrogeology course, introduction to 

geophysics 

– SVALEX: integrated petroleum course, introduction to 

geohazards 

6


Presentations, etc. 

• State-of-the-art: Diploma Engineer Thesis, ICG report 2005-T1-1, 

defended 26/09/05 with honnors. 

• Accepted abstract (Åknes BILAT activities): 19th SAGEEP 

(Symposium on the Application of Geophysics to Engineering and Environmental Problems), 

Seattle, Washington, 2-6 April 2006. Extended abstract to be sent 

before 15/12. 

• Talk: Oslo Society of Exploration Geophysicsts, 28 June. 

• Talks Anne-Laure Bouillon: 

– ICG/NGI: 31/08 

– NORSAR: 02/09 

– EOST, Strasbourg, 26/09 

• Talk SVALEX: short intro to offshore geohazards (100 students) 

ICG Theme 2: Geographical Information 

Technology and Geohazard 

Theme Coordinator: Bernd Etzelmüller (University of Oslo) 

Cooperation with most ICG projects 

Connections to several PhD theses. 

“Horizontal activity” in the ICG: 

• Co-ordinate and helps with GIT-related problems 

• Drive some own projects, mostly related to DEM/topography 

relationship 

• Education (courses, MSc, PhD) 

Main activities and achievements 2005: 

• 2 workshops”GIT and geohazard”, 31. March and 4. November 

2005. 

• Involved in many projects. Almost all on-shore geohazard 

projects need GIT in some form. 

ICG Theme 3: Debris flow and rock slide 

dynamics 

Theme Coordinator: Ulrik Domaas (NGI) 

Activities: 

• Meeting in the debris flow group (26.05.2005). Presentation by 

PG on the topic: Numerical Modelling of Debris Flow. 

Discussions. 

• Internal ICG meeting P9 (24.10.2005): Slide dynamics and 

mechanics of disintegration at ICG. 9 presentations with 

discussions. 

• Discussions on existing rockslide models & further development 

• Meetings in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Sri Lanka 


• 2-year Master’s degree in Environmental Geology 

and Geohazards 

• Course in Environmental Geophysics 

GPR 

Seismics 

No cost for ICG! 

GIT and Geohazard 

Resistivity 

• Students involved in work within action frame work 

• PhD – Terrain analyses and geohazard (UiO, Romstad) 

• PhD – DEM and visualisation (NTNU, Norvik) 

• PhD – Landslides Nicaragua (UiO, Devoli, parts) 

• MSc – Testing of algorithms and software for slow movements 

using PINSAR (UiO, FFI) 

• MSc – Validation of Hotspot model in Ethiopia 

• MSc – Regional topography-based models for rock slides 

• MSc – Regional mapping and hazards assessment for small and 

steep glaciers in Norway (Glacier and permafrost hazard) 

Coordination of activities related to debris 

flow and rock slide dynamics 

Basic idea: 

Application of GIT 

to Geohazards 

(Theme 2) 

We want to share and build 

on knowledge between the 

different ICG projects 

and participants 

Prevention and mitigation 

(ICG Project 12) 

Stability of rock 

slopes (ICG 4) 

? 

Tsunami modelling and 

prediction (ICG Project 10) 

We want to use and/or 

developnumerical models for 

calculating Debris flows and 

Rockslides 

Slide dynamics and mechanics 

of disintegration (ICG Project 9) 

7


Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 


Appendix B – Aims of ICG Projects in 2006 Page: A1 

Appendix B - Aims of ICG Projects in 2006 

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Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 


Appendix B – Aims of ICG Projects in 2006 Page: B2 

OBJECTIVES OF ICG PROJECTS IN 2006 

ICG Project 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Geohazards 

Project Manager: Suzanne Lacasse (NGI) 

The objectives of the project in 2006 are: 

• Develop an exhaustive framework for the assessment of hazard, vulnerability and 

risk associated with geohazards and describe the several different steps in detail. 

• Make the assessment itself of vulnerability and risk an easy-to-understand and easyto-use 

approach by: 

− Documenting the methods, uncertainties and state of recommendations in literature 

on important hazard and risk aspects, such as for example allowable and tolerable 

risk 

− Providing well documented examples of the analyses and choices made in the 

vulnerability and risk assessment for several natural hazards, including: 

� Rock slope 

� Slopes in clays 

� Underwater slope 

� Tsunami 

� Avalanche 

As far as possible, the case studies will use different types of calculations and considerations 

(not all aspect can be exactly quantified) in order to provide examples of 

different approaches. The example problems are selected from the case studies in 

the other ICG projects. 

• Establish communication with experts in social aspects of risks related to geohazards. 

• Continue outreach on the topic among personnel of partners and prepare lectures for 

NTNU/UiO to be given primo 2007. 

ICG Project 3: Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Loss 

Project Manager: Hilmar Bungum (NORSAR) 

The main goals within the project in 2006 are: 

• To ensure that we are aware of and at par with international developments within the 

field, in part to be achieved through international cooperation 

• To work on selected specific research problems within the field: 



Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 



− ICG participation in a major earthquake microzonation and risk scenario for a city 

with high exposure in Spain. 

− Further development of software related to the EQ_LOSS package (earlier called 

RISK_ICG), including implementation of DBELA developed vulnerability 

functions. 

− Evaluation of the effect of soil parameters on amplification of seismic waves in 

slopes and possibility of earthquake-induced slope instability. 

− Theoretical and experimental investigation of effects of soil response on earthquake 

motions. 

ICG Project 4: Stability of Rock Slopes 

Project Manager: Lars H. Blikra (NGU) 

The main objectives of the project in 2006 are: 

• Improve the methods for quantification of rockslide hazard based on spatial and 

temporal data 

• Establish new understanding of the geological control on rock-slope failures (structural 

geology, geophysical data, weak layers) 

• Development and use of a wide spectre of numerical models for increasing the 

understanding of the stability and kinematics of different types of rock-slope instabilities. 

Increased effort on data collection and prediction of strength parameters. 

• Enhance the use of new techniques in remote sensing for detailed investigations and 

monitoring of large rock-slope instabilities and failures (lidar, radar). Development 

of new methods and tools for high resolution DEM analysis. 

• Application and adaptation of the passive seismic monitoring technique to unstable 

rock slope sites. It’s value for an early warning system and for the general understanding 

of rock-slope failure behaviour. 

ICG Project 5: Stability of soil slopes 

Project Manager: Håkon Heyerdahl (NGI) 

The main objective of the project is to develop an increased understanding of landslide 

release mechanisms by combining geomechanical analyses, rainfall data and data from 

slope instrumentation and mapping/evaluation of geological processes. 



Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 



The major research areas in 2006 include: 

• Geological mapping and processes 

• Understanding and modelling of material behaviour 

• Modelling of pore pressures in soils 

• Stability analyses 

• Development of stabilising measures and mitigation recommendations 

• Instrumentation of slopes. 

ICG Project 6: Offshore Geohazards 

Project Manager: Anders Solheim (NGI) 

The following are the main aims of the project for 2006: 

• Improve the integration between the different data types (geological, geotechnical 

and geophysical) in geohazards investigations, and to improve the assessment and 

prediction of geohazards from knowledge of geological history of an area. This will 

help improve our ability to perform robust submarine slope stability evaluations and 

understand potential trigger mechanisms related to submarine slides. 

• Improve the use of geophysical data to extract geotechnical information, in particular 

with regards to the application of S-waves and surface-waves as a mean for obtaining 

geotechnical information like sediment shear-strength 

• Improve spatial geophysical mapping with control both at the acquisition level (survey 

planning), the processing and the imaging, including controlled illumination for 

better vertical and lateral resolution. 

• Increase knowledge about the effects and detection of shallow gas and gas hydrate 

occurrences, which in addition to slope instability form the other serious offshore 

geohazards along the NW European continental margins. 

• Develop theoretical and practical tools for the monitoring of pore pressures in a 

formation and understanding their influence on slope stability and other geohazards 

problems. 

ICG Project 9: Slide dynamics and mechanics of disintegration 

Project Manager: Anders Elverhøi (UiO) 

The main objectives of the project in 2006 are: 

• Improved understanding of fluid and granular flow dynamics – gravity mass flows 

and the origin of deep water sandy bodies. A problem of great relevance for geo- 



Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 



hazards mitigation and for petroleum exploration is to understand the origin of submarine 

large sandy bodies. Sandy bodies may derive either from the deposition of 

giant debris flows or from turbidity currents, but there is no clear answer as to which 

mechanism is dominant. Because debris flows and turbidity currents have a very different 

dynamics, it is difficult to develop a quantitative theory for the emplacement 

and geometry of sand bodies before the dynamics of these gravity mass flows has 

been understood. Combining small-scale experiments performed with artificial 

slurries of variable clay-sand compositions and physical and numerical modelling, 

we will study the dynamics of sandy debris flows and turbidity currents. 

• Methodology for analysing triggering mechanisms and predicting inundation areas 

of debris flows (including lahars) in Central America. Future mitigation strategies 

based on history of flow occurrences. 

• Debris flows: field observations, rheological measurements and numerical modelling. 

ICG Project 10: Tsunami Modelling and Prediction 

Project Manager: Carl B. Harbitz (NGI) 

The overall objectives of the project in 2006 are: 

• Contribution to tsunami and ocean modelling. Keywords are: common computational 

basis for all the physical processes involved and model improvements to meet the 

requirements for a reliable tsunami hazard evaluation. 

• Back-calculations for improved physical understanding, where one investigates 

(pre-) historical events to improve the modelling of slides and tsunamis, its physical 

understanding, and education. 

• Education, emergency preparedness and public awareness. 

ICG Project 12: Prevention and Mitigation (with Emphasis on Early Warning) 

Project Manager: James Strout (NGI) 

The engineering and scientific aspects of geohazards risk mitigation cannot be regarded 

alone; the social and political aspects are an important part of this. These are in fact 

probably the most challenging aspects of the whole approach. Prevention and mitigation 

involves both the hard (scientific) and soft (societal) components. The main objectives 

of the project in 2006 are: 

• Understanding physical processes and mechanisms 

• Measurement, modelling and prediction 



Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 



• Communication of science to the general society 

• Education of society to understand the communication and respond appropriately 

• Building of society's infrastructure to meet the response 

• Responding to society's needs when disaster cannot be avoided 

ICG Theme 1: Geophysics for Geohazards 

Theme Coordinator: Isabelle Lecomte (/NORSAR) 

The main aims of this theme are: 

• Keep overview over existing geophysical activities 

• Offer geophysical advice and assistance to projects that do not include geophysics 

• Stimulate research activities (including publications) 

• Contribute to ICG educational programmes 

ICG Theme 2: Geographical Information Technology Applications in 

Geohazards 

Theme Coordinator: Bernd Etzelmüller (UiO) 

Some of the major aims of this theme are: 

• Develop methodologies for slope hazard regionalisation based on digital terrain 

analyses. 

• Develop scientifically sound and justified weighting factor for GIS-based hazard 

prediction modelling. 

• Develop GIS-based prediction models for landslide hazard and vulnerability analyses. 

ICG Theme 3: Coordination of studies on debris flow and rock slide dynamics 

Theme Coordinator: Ulrik Domaas (NGI) 

The main aims of this theme are: 

• Coordination of related activities in ICG Projects. 

• Meeting in the debris flow group with discussions and presentations related to special 

projects and on numerical modelling of debris flow. 

• Develop contact and discussion forum for ICG projects. 

• Continue the discussions on existing and future rockslide models related to tsunamis. 

• Use and develop numerical models for calculating debris flows and rockslides. 



Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 


Appendix C – ICG Publications in 2005 Page: C1 

Appendix C - ICG Publications in 2005 

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Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 



NOTE: ICG Publication numbers 1 through 72 are listed in the ICG Annual 

Report for 2004. 

73. Fell, R., Ho, K.K.S, Lacasse, S. and Leroi, E. (2005) 

A framework for landslide risk assessment and management. 

State of the Art Paper 1. International Conference on Landslide Risk Management, 

Vancouver, Canada, 31 May-2 June 2005. 

74. Phoon, K.K., Nadim, F. and Lacasse, S. (2005). 

First-Order Reliability Method Using Hermite Polynomials. 

Proceedings 9 th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability 

ICOSSAR2005, Rome, Italy, 19-23 June 2005. 

75. Yang, S., Lacasse, S. and Forsberg, C.F. (2005) 

Application of packing models on geophysical property of sediments 

Paper 16th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 

(16ICSMGE), Osaka, Japan, September 12-16, 2005 (accepted). 

76. Nadim, F., Kjekstad, O. and Peduzzi, P. (2005) 

Assessment of global landslide hazard and risk hotspots. 

Proceedings 16th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical 

Engineering (16ICSMGE), Osaka, Japan, September 12-16, 2005. 

77. Strout, J.M. and Sparrevik, P.M. (2005). 

Multilevel subsea piezometer system 



78. Nadim, F., Einstein, H. and Roberds, W. (2005) 

State of the Art Paper 3 – Probabilistic Stability Analysis for Individual Slopes in 

Soil and Rock. 

International Conference on Landslide Risk Management, Vancouver, Canada, 31 

May-2 June 2005. 

79. Nadim, F. and Locat, J. (2005) 

Risk Assessment for Submarine Slides. 



80. Yang, S.L. and Sandven, R. (2005). 

Evaluation of the properties of silty soils with high fines content 

Proceedings International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference & Exhibition, 

ISOPE, Seoul, Korea, 19-24 June, 2005. 



Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 



81. Duzgun, H.S.B. and Lacasse, S. (2005) 

Vulnerability and Acceptable Risk in Integrated Risk Assessment Framework. 



82. Lacasse, S. and Berre, T. (2005). 

Undrained creep susceptibility of clays. 



83. De Blasio, F.V. (2005) 

A simple dynamical model of landslide fragmentation during flow. 

Proceedings 11th International Conference and Field Trip on Landslides (ICFL), 

Norway, 1-10 September, 2005. 

84. De Blasio, F.V., Engvik, L.E. and Elverhøi, A. (2005) 

The sliding of outrunner blocks from submarine landslides. 

Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters 

85. De Blasio, F.V., Elverhøi, A., Issler, D., Nystuen, J.P., Ilstad, T., Marr, G. and 

Harbitz, C. (2005) 

Flow and disintegration of sand-rich debris flows and the origin of deep water 

sandy bodies. 

To be submitted to Marine Geology 

86. Yang, S.L., Sandven, R. and Grande, L. (2005) 

Instability of sand-silt mixtures 

J. of Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 

87. Blikra, L.H., Longva, O., Harbitz, C.B. and Løvholt, F. (in press) 

Quantification of rock-avalanche and tsunami hazard in Storfjorden, western 

Norway. 

Proceedings 11th International Conference and Field Trip on Landslides (ICFL), 

Norway, 1-10 September, 2005. 

88. Bøe, R., Prøsch-Danielsen, L., Lepland, A., Høgestøl, M., Gauer, P. and Harbitz, 

C.B. (in review) 

A possible Early Holocene (ca. 10 000 - 9800/9700 14C yrs BP) slide-triggered 

tsunami at the Galta settlement sites, Rennesøy, SW Norway. 

Norwegian J. Geology (NGT). 

89. Bornhold, B.D., Longva, O., Thomson, R.E., Rabinovich, A.B., Kulikov, E.A., 

Fine, I., Harper, J.R., McLaren, D., Skvortsov, A. and Harbitz, C.B. (in prep) 

Landslide-generated tsunamis in Fjords - A review of occurrences in Alaska, 

British Columbia and Norway. 

Submitted to COSTA-Canada special issue, Marine Geology. 



Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 



90. Elverhøi, A., Issler, D., De Blasio, F.V., Ilstad, T., Harbitz, C.B. and Gauer, P. 

(2005) 

Emerging insights on the dynamics of submarine debris flows. 

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 5, 633-648, 2005 (Part of Special 

Issue "Tsunami hazard from slope instability") 

91. Gauer, P., Lied, K., Kristensen, K., Harbitz, C., Issler, D., Iwe, H., Lied, E., 

Rammer, L. and Schreiber, H. (2005) 

On avalanche full-scale measurements at the Ryggfonn test site, Norway. Submitted 

to Cold Region Science and Technology. 

92. Yang, S.L., Lacasse, S. and Sandven, R. (2005) 

Determination of the transitional fines content of mixtures of sand and non-plastic 

fines. 

Submitted to Geotechnical Testing Journal. 

93. Glimsdal, S., Pedersen, G.K., Atakan, K., Harbitz, C.B., Langtangen, H.P. and 

Løvholt, F. (2005) 

Propagation of the Dec. 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: effects of dispersion and 

source characteristic. 

Int. J. of Fluid Mech. Research 

94. Phoon, K.-K. (2005) 

Modeling and Simulation of Stochastic Data 

Keynote paper for GeoCongress2006. 

95. Engvik, L., De Blasio, F.V. and Elverhøi, A. (2005) 

Small scale simulations of outrunner blocks. 

Submitted to Norwegian Journal of Geology 

96. De Blasio, F.V., Elverhøi, A., Engvik, L., Issler, D., Gauer, P. and Harbitz, C. 

(2005) 

Understanding the high mobility of subaqueous debris flows 

Submitted to Norwegian Journal of Geology. 

97. De Blasio, F.V., Elverhøi, A., Nystuen, J.P., Issler, D. and Harbitz, C. (2005) 

Flow and disintegration of sand-rich debris flows and the origin of deep water 

sand bodies. 

Submitted to Marine Geology. 

98. De Blasio, F.V. and A. Elverhøi (2005) 

Frictional melt production in a model of long-runout landslides. 

Submitted to Geology. 



Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 



99. Gauer, P., Elverhøi, A., Issler, D. and De Blasio, F.V. (2005) 

On numerical simulations of subaqueous slides: Back-calculations of laboratory 

experiments. 

Special issue of Norwegian Journal of Geology. Proceedings 2 nd International 

Conference on Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences, Sept. 2005, 

Oslo, Norway. 

100. Riise, L., Ottesen, D., Berg, K. and Lundin, E. (2005) 

Large-scale development of the mid-Norwegian margin during the last 3 million 

years. 

Marine and Petroleum Geology, 22, 3-44. 

101. Cotton, F., Scherbaum, F., Bommer, J. and Bungum, H. (2006) 

Criteria for selecting and adapting ground-motion models for specific target 

regions: Application to Central Europe and rock sites. 

J. Seismology, doi: 10.1007/s10950-005-9006-7, in press. 

102. Musson, R.M.W., Toro, G.R., Coppersmith, K.J., Bommer, J.J., Deichmann, N., 

Bungum, H., Cotton, F., Scherbaum, F., Slejko, D. and Abrahamson, N.A. (2005) 

Evaluating hazard results for Switzerland and how not to do it: A reply to 

"Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing 

earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants" by J.-U. Klügel. 

Eng. Geol., 82, 43-55. 

103. Glimsdal, S., Pedersen, G.K., Langtangen, H.P., Shuvalov, V. and Dypvik, H. 

Tsunami generation and propagation from the Mjølnir asteroid impact 

Submitted for publication in Meteoritics and Planetary Science. 

104. Molina, S. and Lindholm, C.D. (2006). 

To the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree 

approach. 

J. Seis., submitted. 

105. Nadim, F. (2006) 

Challenges to Geo-scientists in Risk Assessment for Submarine Slides. 

Special issue of Norwegian Journal of Geology: Keynote Lecture, 2 nd International 

Conference on Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences, 

Sept. 2005, Oslo, Norway. 

106. Fuselier, T., Edgers, L. and Nadim, F. (2006) 

Transient Flow in Unsaturated Soils: Numerical Analysis and Case Study. 

The Fourth International Conference on Unsaturated Soils, 2-6 April 2006, 

Carefree, Arizona, USA. 



Date: 2006-03-31 

Rev.: 



107. Høydal, Ø.A. and Heyerdahl, H. (2006) 

Methodology for calculation of rain-induced slides. 



108. Høydal, Ø.A. and Skurtveit, E. (2006) 

Experience from Modelling of Pore Pressure in a Partly Unsaturated Slope. 



109. L’Heureux, J.S., Høeg, K. and Høydal, Ø.A. (2006) 

Numerical Analyses and Field Case Study of Slope Subjected 

to Rainfall. 



110. Roth, M., Dietrich, M., Blikra, L.H. and Lecomte, I. (2006) 

Seismic monitoring of the unstable rock slope site at Åknes, Norway. 

EEGS' 19 th Annual SAGEEP Conference, Seattle, WA, USA 2-6 April 2006. 

111. Yang, S., Solheim, A., Kvalstad, T.J., Forsberg, C.F. and Schnellmann, M. (2006) 

Behaviour of the sediments in the Storegga Slide interpreted by the steady state 

concept. 

Norwegian Journal of Geology 

112. Yang, S.L., Kvalstad, T., Solheim, A. and Forsberg, C.F. (2006) 

Parameter studies of sediments involved in the Storegga Slide 

Accepted by Geo-Marine letters 

113. Yang, S.L., Forsberg, C.F., et al. (2006) 

Statistical analysis of well logs compared with the geotechnical data in Storegga 

Slide area. 

Accepted by Marine Georesources and Geotechnology 

114. Nadim, F., Kjekstad, O., Peduzzi, P., Herold, C. and Jaedicke, C. (2006) 

Global landslide and avalanche hotspots. 

Landslides, Online First, Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. 


Kontroll- og referanseside/ 

Review and reference page 

Oppdragsgiver/Client 

The Research Council of Norway 

Kontraktsreferanse/ 

Contract reference 

SFF – ICG 146035/420 

Dokumenttittel/Document title 

International Centre for Geohazards – Annual report – 2005 

Prosjektleder/Project Manager 

Farrokh Nadim 

Utarbeidet av/Prepared by 

Farrokh Nadim 

Emneord/Keywords 

Land, fylke/Country, County 

Kommune/Municipality 

Sted/Location 

Kartblad/Map 

UTM-koordinater/UTM-coordinates 

Dokument nr/Document No. 

20031103-3 

Dato/Date 

2006-03-31 

Distribusjon/Distribution 

� Fri/Unlimited 

� Begrenset/Limited 

� Ingen/None 

Havområde/Offshore area 

Feltnavn/Field name 

Sted/Location 

Felt, blokknr./Field, Block No. 

Kvalitetssikring i henhold til/Quality assurance according to 

NS-EN ISO9001 

Kon- 

Dokument/Document Revisjon 1/Revision 1 Revisjon 2/Revision 2 

trollert 

av/ 

Reviewed 

by 

FNa 

Kontrolltype/ 

Type of review 

Helhetsvurdering/ 

General 

Evaluation * 

SL Språk/Style 

SL 

Teknisk/Technical 

- Skjønn/Intelligence 

- Total/Extensive 

- Tverrfaglig/ 

Interdisciplinary 

THa Utforming/Layout 2006.03.31 

SL Slutt/Final 2006.03.31 

Kopiering/Copy quality 

Kontrollert/Reviewed Kontrollert/Reviewed Kontrollert/Reviewed 

Dato/Date 

2006.03.31 

Sign. Dato/Date Sign. Dato/Date Sign. 

* Gjennomlesning av hele rapporten og skjønnsmessig vurdering av innhold og presentasjonsform/ 

On the basis of an overall evaluation of the report, its technical content and form of presentation 

Dokument godkjent for utsendelse/ 

Document approved for release 

Dato/Date 

31 March 2006 

Sign.

International Centre for Geohazards - NGI

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