HAITI UPDATE Donald E. Schulz January 29, 1997

HAITI UPDATE
Donald E. Schulz
January 29, 1997

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The author wishes to thank Ambassador William Swing, Major
Joseph Bernadel and Mr. Eric Falt for the assistance they gave
during his recent trip to Haiti. During that visit, he spoke with
many people, including U.S., Haitian and other nationals. In
addition, Ms. Rachel Neild provided much useful information.
Finally, Ms. Neild, Dr. Gabriel Marcella, Dr. Steven Metz and
Colonel Richard Witherspoon all provided substantive criticism of
the manuscript. Needless to say, the views expressed in this
report are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect
the position of the U.S. Government, the American Embassy, the
Department of Defense or the U.S. Army War College. Any errors of
omission or commission are entirely the author's responsibility.
ii

FOREWORD
Recent developments in Haiti including political
assassinations attributed to both former Haitian military
personnel and members of President Preval's presidential security
unit have once again thrust that troubled country into the
international spotlight. In the process, questions have been
raised about the viability of the nascent Haitian democracy and
the political stability on which it rests. In turn, that has led
to questions about the length and nature of the international
commitment, including that of the United States. Thus it was that
in September 1996 Dr. Donald E. Schulz, the author of two
previous Strategic Studies Institute reports on Haiti
(Reconciling the Irreconcilable: The Troubled Outlook for U.S.
Policy Toward Haiti, coauthored with Gabriel Marcella, 1994; and
Whither Haiti?, 1996), spent a week in country gathering
information about the current situation and the prospects for the
future. During that visit, he spoke with numerous people,
including U.S., Haitian and other nationals, on a not-forattribution
basis. This report is the product of those
conversations, his personal observations of what he saw, and his
continuing research on Haiti.
The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to publish this
study as a contribution to understanding events in this important
Caribbean country.
RICHARD H. WITHERSPOON
Colonel, U.S. Army
Director, Strategic Studies Institute
iii

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH OF THE AUTHOR
DONALD E. SCHULZ is a Professor of National Security Affairs at
the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. He is the
coauthor of Reconciling the Irreconcilable: The Troubled Outlook
for U.S. Policy Toward Haiti and The United States, Honduras and
the Crisis in Central America, and coeditor of Mexico Faces the
21st Century, Revolution and Counterrevolution in Central America
and the Caribbean, Cuba and the Future, and Political
Participation in Communist Systems. His articles have appeared in
Foreign Policy, Orbis, the Journal of Interamerican Studies and
World Affairs, and Small Wars and Insurgencies, as well as such
media outlets as Newsweek, The Washington Post, the Miami Herald,
and the Christian Science Monitor.
iv

SUMMARY
This study reviews recent political and economic
developments in Haiti and assesses the prospects for
democratization, political stability and economic development.
The report is pessimistic, but far from hopeless. While political
violence and human rights violations persist and the economy is
stagnant, the Preval administration and the Haitian Congress have
finally made the hard decisions to press on with economic
modernization, including partial privatization and civil service
reforms. International lenders are once more extending aid, which
means that the economy should improve. In general, both President
Preval and Congress receive high marks for their performances.
Even the Haitian National Police, though still probably incapable
of maintaining law and order without the help of U.N.
peacekeepers, has done reasonably well considering its limited
resources and the trying circumstances under which it is
operating.
Nevertheless, the challenges facing Haiti and the
international community remain enormous. The moment of truth will
come when the U.N. peacekeepers leave. Since the United Nations
is unlikely to stay past July 1997 and the Haitian police will
probably not be up to the task of maintaining law and order by
that time, other bilateral and/or multilateral security
arrangements will have to be made. The United States and Canada
should take the lead in forging those arrangements in the months
ahead. Beyond this, the report also calls for an accelerated
effort to create a functioning judicial system and recommends
that the United States convert its military support mission into
a semipermanent operation with ongoing infrastructural and
humanitarian responsibilities. Finally, the author notes that
there is a need to hold the Haitian government's feet to the fire
with regard to human rights violations. If allowed to continue,
the recent slide down the slippery slope of political violence
could destroy everything that has been accomplished thus far.
v

HAITI UPDATE
From time immemorial in Guinea, every man betrays his
neighbor.
Creole proverb
The Americans, in short, had modernized everything but
Haiti and the Haitians.
Robert and Nancy Heinl,
on the U.S. occupation of Haiti,
1915-34
A year ago, this writer painted a fairly bleak, though by no
means hopeless, portrait of Haiti's political and socioeconomic
prospects. 1 In a nutshell, it was argued that in spite of the
substantive progress that had been made since the September 1994
U.S./multinational intervention in that country, there was still
a long way to go. The political situation remained extremely
fragile and volatile, and the prospects for socioeconomic
development were at best problematic. The latter was all the more
doubtful because of the suspension of over $130 million in
foreign aid due to the failure of the Aristide administration to
privatize state industries and rationalize the economy in
accordance with the prescriptions of the U.S. Government and
international financial institutions. The administration was
warned that unless this deadlock were broken, Haiti would sink
back into hopelessness and ungovernability, and that the tactical
success that had been achieved to that point would likely, sooner
or later, turn into a strategic failure.
Recent developments have once again thrust Haiti into the
international spotlight and raised questions about the ability of
the Preval government to maintain political stability and
democracy after the U.N. Mission departs, which will presumably
occur sometime in 1997. The past year has witnessed an
intensification of political violence, primarily associated with
former members of the now disbanded Haitian Armed Forces (FAdH),
but also involving the presidential security unit responsible for
protecting both Preval and former President Aristide. Since March
1996, moreover, at least nine members of the Haitian National
Police have been killed in a pattern that suggests that its
officers are increasingly being targeted by elements on both ends
of the political spectrum, as well as by gangs in slums like Cite
Soleil.
The Recent Crisis.
These developments came to a head last summer in a flurry of
1

political arrests, conspiracies and assassinations. The most
troubling incidents occurred in August. Early that month, U.S.
officials got wind of a plot by former military officers to kill
Preval and Aristide. Accordingly, security around the two men was
reinforced. On August 16, Haitian police arrested some 20 members
of Hubert de Ronceray's ultra-right wing Mobilization for
National Development (MND), most of whom were ex-FAdH and were
said to have been planning political assassinations. Two nights
later, gunmen wearing military-style uniforms attacked the
national police headquarters and the parliament building. Then,
on August 20, MND leaders Antoine Leroy and Jacques Florival were
killed by unidentified gunmen. The political opposition
immediately denounced the government as being responsible. The
former mayor of Port-au-Prince, Evans Paul, who used to be an
ally of Aristide and Preval, even charged that there were no
differences between Lavalas and the "Macoutes'--that both used
the same methods. 2 In turn, Preval accused the ex-military of
being instruments of destabilization: "But behind them," he
claimed, "you will find the politicians who are pulling the
strings, and the people who are really committing these actions,
the economic sector." 3 Meanwhile, gunmen opened fire on Haiti's
television station, and a number of journalists received death
threats.
By now the White House was getting nervous. A detachment of
165 paratroops from the 82nd Airborne had already been dispatched
to Haiti in late July for a week of training and to provide
security for the 300 to 500-member American military support team
that had been building bridges and roads and providing medical
care to Haitians since U.S. peacekeepers left the previous
spring. Subsequently, the day after the Leroy/Florival
assassinations, a second contingent of troops, composed of 49
Marines, was landed. Quite apart from their other missions, this
was a not-so-subtle way of telling those who might be tempted to
destabilize or overthrow the government that the United States
was still watching the situation and, in the words of one source,
"we can still kick your ass." Clearly, however, something more
was needed. By late August, eyewitness accounts, recovered shell
casings and other evidence had linked elements in Preval's
security guard to the Leroy/Florival killings. While there was no
evidence that the Haitian president himself was involved, it was
important that the issue be addressed before it was too late.
There were, in fact, two problems here. The most immediate
was political: If the involvement of Preval's presidential
security unit were to become public--and there was a good chance
it would--it would become an issue in the U.S. election campaign,
with the Republicans using it as a weapon to attack the Clinton
administration's claim of having achieved a foreign policy
success in Haiti. Moreover, if the cancer were not cut out now,
while it was still small and readily manageable, it might grow,
2

eventually endangering both the democratization process and
Preval himself.
Thus it was that at month's end President Clinton's Special
Assistant for National Security Affairs, Anthony Lake, and Deputy
Secretary of State Strobe Talbott were quietly sent to Port-au-
Prince. There they were joined by their Canadian counterparts for
a meeting with President Preval at the residence of U.S.
Ambassador William Swing. Under heavy pressure from Lake and
Talbott, who urged him to move decisively against those suspected
of involvement in the murders, Preval agreed to clean house. The
head of the presidential security unit, Joseph Moise, and his
chief deputy, Milien Romage, were transferred. It was announced
that an additional 10 or 12 other members of the force would be
suspended, and that some of the 200-member Palace Guard would
probably also be removed. At the same time, the Americans and
Canadians quickly placed a protective cocoon around Preval.
Several dozen armed Canadians surrounded the Presidential Palace.
Over a score of State Department agents were rushed to Port-au-
Prince to join a smaller contingent of security personnel that
had been in place ever since Aristide was restored 2 years
earlier. 4
The retaking of the Presidential Palace--as one scribe
referred to it--dramatically underscored the fragility of Haitian
democracy/political stability. In effect, the United States now
found itself in the embarrassing position of having to protect
Preval from his own U.S.-trained body-guards while these units
were investigated, given additional training and turned into a
security force that the president could trust. How long this
would take was difficult to say. 5
The Aristide Wild Card.
No sooner had this crisis begun to die down than a new
problem arose. On September 17, former President Aristide took to
the airwaves with a torrent of criticism aimed at the Preval
administration. The machinery of government, he warned, had
become loaded down with corruption and disorder. Certain
politicians had become blinded by power and had given up on the
people. An economic coup d'etat was underway; privatization was a
trap that had sown division, confusion, conflict, and sorrow
among the Lavalas family. If order were to be restored, there
must be good relations between the Lavalas in power and the
Lavalas out of power. 6
Relations between Preval and Aristide had long been the
subject of speculation. Though the two men have been close for
years--Preval served as Aristide's prime minister in the latter's
short-lived government in 1991, and they have often been referred
3

to as twins--their temperaments and styles are in fact quite
different. Whereas Aristide is intense, Preval is low-key. One is
a rabble-rouser, with an enormous public following based largely
on his messianic presence; the other is an administrator, whose
popular support flows from his constitutional authority and the
backing he has received from Aristide. Lacking a strong
independent political base of his own, Preval's continuing public
support largely depends on his ability to improve living
conditions, provide public order/security and, above all,
maintain good relations with his political benefactor. This last
requirement, indeed, partially accounts for his reticence to
purge his presidential security detail, since that unit was
largely composed of Aristide loyalists, many of whom had been
with the former president when he was in exile.
The crucial questions, of course, concern Aristide's motives
and intentions. Why did he launch his criticisms? And where will
he go from here? It is no secret that Aristide has ambitions to
regain the presidency in 4 years, when the constitution will
allow him to run for office again. Thus, at minimum, his
statement may be seen as an attempt to keep himself in the public
spotlight while distancing himself from a government whose
policies are not likely, in the short run, to improve living
conditions. Aristide's own popularity has fallen significantly
since he left office, and there may have been a perceived need to
halt that decline. 7 Most important, the government's
modernization program was on the verge of receiving final
approval in the Haitian Senate. The plan, which combined the
partial privatization of nine state enterprises with a series of
belt-tightening measures and was intended to reopen the
sluicegates of international aid, had been rejected by Aristide
when he was president. Nothing that had happened since had
changed his mind.
How hard would Aristide push on this matter? Was he merely
engaged in a bit of political posturing, or was he demanding, in
effect, veto power over certain areas of policy? If the latter,
what would he do if he didn't get his way? Would he remain a
member of the loyal opposition, or would he increasingly try to
undermine Preval in order to better be able to present himself as
a political alternative? The hardening of differences between
pro-Aristide and pro-Preval factions could seriously weaken both
the government and Lavalas (which was already deeply divided) at
precisely the time when the ex-military, the macoutes, and other
violence-prone elements were beginning to come out of the
woodwork. The upshot, potentially, could be the destabilization
of Haiti.
As of this writing, it is still too early to tell what will
happen. In November, Aristide announced the creation of a new
umbrella movement, the Lavalas Family, which, he claimed, was not
4

intended to challenge the president or create more division, but
merely reinvigorate and unify the Lavalas coalition. At the same
time, however, he took the opportunity to criticize international
financial institutions for having imposed regressive economic
reforms on Latin American and Caribbean governments. He also
spoke of "traitors, invisible enemies and disinformation . . .
aimed at destabilizing the population." While he made a point of
denying that there were divisions within Lavalas, even as he
spoke activists from opposing factions distributed leaflets to
the audience accusing Aristide of sowing division, the misuse of
funds, and treason. 8
The Security Situation: The Good News . . . and the Bad.
This being said, things are not completely bleak. There have
been some very real gains, and these need to be recognized lest
one draw the conclusion that nothing has been accomplished or
that Haiti is a U.S. policy failure.
Perhaps the most important thing (notwithstanding the
developments cited above) has been the marked improvement that
has occurred in the Haitian security situation since the 1994
U.S. intervention. In large part, this has been due to the
dissolution of the Haitian Armed Forces and allied paramilitary
organizations. Here, a certain irony exists. Originally, U.S.
officials had wanted to keep the FAdH--purge it, professionalize
it, and maintain it at a reduced level of manpower--which was a
terrible idea considering the predatory nature of the institution
and the overwhelming lack of legitimacy it enjoyed among the
populace. 9 But Aristide outmaneuvered them, effectively
dissolving the army in stages. (The remnants may still be seen in
the form of the presidential brass band.) Had the military been
retained intact, the danger of a coup or assassination would
always have been in the background. Haitian presidents would have
been forever looking over their shoulders. The very existence of
the institution would have undercut the public's confidence in
the government. Just to be associated with it--in any way--would
have had a delegitimizing effect.
Now, instead, there is a Haitian National Police (HNP)
which, for all of its weaknesses and faults, is still infinitely
preferable to what existed before. While human rights abuses
continue, they are not massive or systematic, as was the case
under the de facto regime (1991-94) when at least 3,000 people
died. In recent reports, the O.A.S./U.N. International Civil
Mission (MICIVIH) found that the police had killed some four
dozen civilians and wounded scores of others during their first
year and a half on the beat. Those abuses that did occur--and not
all of these cases were confirmed as such--were isolated
instances. In general, most officers were doing a credible job in
5

spite of their inexperience and an often debilitating lack of
equipment. 10 Moreover, progress is being made in establishing
internal investigatory procedures capable of addressing abuses of
authority. Both the Director and the Inspector General of the HNP
appear committed to ending the practice of impunity under which
police have traditionally operated. Scores of officers have been
dismissed, and at least 13 are being prosecuted. One must keep in
mind, however, that the concept of police accountability is
foreign to Haiti, and that resources to investigate, try and
punish abuses are very limited. (Among other things, the courts
are almost entirely nonfunctional.) Nevertheless, in spite of all
the problems the HNP faces, most urban Haitians, at least, still
seem to believe that a fair amount of progress has been made in
creating an effective police force. 11
At the same time, the security situation--while it has
clearly deteriorated--is not quite as bad as it might seem from
reading the U.S. press. The events of last August do not
necessarily mean that things are falling apart. As Rachel Neild
of of the Washington Office on Latin America has observed,
violence tends to come in waves in Haiti, with each new flareup
generating enormous tension before gradually dying down. 12 Indeed,
this has been the pattern over the past half year. Furthermore,
those anti-government forces that have been resorting to violence
are still very weak and disorganized. The largest group consists
of former enlistees from the FAdH, who suffered an abrupt drop in
their economic well-being when their careers were terminated.
They feel they have legitimate grievances. They want their
savings, pensions and severance pay, and have become increasingly
militant in demanding them. In June 1996, several hundred exsoldiers
held a protest in the capital, threatening to take up
arms if their demands were not met. There are small political
groups on both the extreme right and the extreme left who are
trying to manipulate the former enlistees for their own purposes
and draw them into conspiratorial activities. 13 These elements
view democracy and the rule of law as threats to their own
privileges and ambitions. They prefer a police force that they
might be able to subvert or control to one that is professional
and apolitical. Thus, their efforts to undermine the HNP.
Two other security issues must also be mentioned. One
involves the criminal gangs that have proliferated over the past
2 years. This is a serious problem. The police are afraid to go
into some of the slums for fear they will be attacked. Even U.S.
Embassy personnel have been forbidden to go into Cite Soleil
without special permission. Still, there is a distinction between
criminal violence and political violence. There are five or six
identifiable gangs in Cite Soleil, but they don't cooperate with
one another and often shoot at each other. Even the most
notorious of these groups--the so-called Red Army--does not exist
in the sense of being a well-organized, cohesive entity. While
6

some of its members may share a fantasy of being part of a broad
popular army, they have no idea how to organize or discipline
themselves. On the other hand, with opportunities for enrichment
scarce and guns plentiful it should not be surprising that some
might hire themselves out as thugs or assassins.
Finally, about a dozen government-licensed security
companies as well as scores of unlicensed security forces
organized by local authorities and wealthy families have appeared
over the past 2 years. Currently, there are more private security
agents than police officers in Port-au-Prince, and they are often
more experienced. Many are former members of the FAdH, who are
putting to use the skills they learned in the military. They tend
to be better armed than the police, who are still limited by law
to side arms. While there is a bill before parliament that would
allow the equipping of special police units (SWAT and crowdcontrol
teams) with heavier weapons, its fate remains uncertain.
In the meantime, the side-arm restriction is increasingly being
reinterpreted in practice to permit officers to carry rifles and
shotguns.
The bottom line is that none of these groups currently has
the capability of overthrowing the government. The best they can
do--for the time being, at least--is to continue to engage in
sporadic violence. Under these circumstances, the threat is not
so much a coup, which is unlikely to be successful and in any
case could not be consolidated in the face of the foreign
military presence. Rather, the primary dangers are (1) the
assassination of Preval, Aristide or both, leading to massive
violence between their followers and those perceived to be
responsible for the killings, (2) the triggering of a dialectic
of revolution in which ongoing violence from each side
accelerates the violence from the other, and (3) the creation of
such chaos and anxiety as to undermine and eventually destroy the
government's ability to maintain order and public confidence,
thus preparing the way for its eventual collapse or overthrow.
This is the real meaning of the recent deterioration in the
security situation. Pre-revolutionary conditions are being
created which, if not contained, could lead to something much
worse. The problem is complicated by the fact that the
government's security forces show signs of falling into the
classic trap of overreacting to the threats and provocations that
are occurring. The Leroy/Florival killings were only the most
notorious case. While the MICIVIH reports on the HNP have been
generally favorable, they have documented a sharp increase in
police violence in 1996. 14 Though not all of these incidents
constituted abuse, there is little question that such behavior is
on the rise. Efforts to investigate and punish the guilty still
leave much to be desired. Since April 1996, moreover, over 100
individuals have been arrested on vague charges of subversion,
7

sometimes without warrents, leading to accusations that the
government has been targeting political opponents engaged in
perfectly legal activities.
The Transition: Leadership and Resources.
One of the most notable achievements during the past 2 years
has been the political transition that has taken place. A
veritable revolution has occurred in the Haitian Congress, and it
has been clearly for the better. Granted, this was not
immediately apparent. The June 1995 elections that ushered in the
new legislature were seriously flawed, and were at the time
roundly denounced by critics in both Haiti and the United States.
By the same token, the landslide victory by Lavalas gave rise to
fears that Haiti was developing a one-party state dominated by
the most radical elements in the Aristide camp.
In retrospect, those concerns appear to have been
exaggerated. The problem with the elections was primarily one of
chaos and incompetence, rather than systematic fraud or violence,
and was largely confined to the initial round of balloting. No
serious observer doubts that Lavalas would have won an
overwhelming victory even under the most pristine conditions. The
Congress that emerged is a broadly representative body--the
first really representative legislature that Haiti has ever had-and
the deputies are taking their jobs very seriously. (In
contrast, the previous parliament was overflowing with political
hacks and opportunists.)
As for Lavalas, it was never a monolithic organization.
Lavalas is a coalition of groups, several of which have
representatives in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. There is
no party discipline. Even Gerard Pierre-Charles, the leader of
the largest of these blocs--the Lavalas Political Organization,
or OPL--claims he doesn't know how many deputies he has. And
certainly they don't always do what the Executive wants. The
legislators have rejected a number of presidential appointments
and programs, and even an Inter-American Development Bank loan
that was considered inappropriate. Whatever else this parliament
might be, it is no rubber stamp.
The name of the game is responsible co-government. Not the
least of this Congress' virtues is that it is serving as a check
on the president. This is a healthy contrast to the traditional
Haitian propensity to place all power in the hands of the
Executive. And in spite of an incredible lack of resources, the
legislature's performance has been impressive. Keep in mind that
there is no party machinery to advance the process of
legislation, and almost no trained staff. There is no legislative
research service, and few people to help with the drafting of
8

ills. There are not enough secretaries, xerox machines,
telephones, desks or chairs. Nor is there air conditioning. (The
temperature in the Chamber of Deputies is often around 95 o F.) The
Senate does not even have a chamber of its own in which to meet;
it has had to adapt a conference room for that purpose.
Yet, even under these conditions, tangible progress has been
made. Notwithstanding Aristide's opposition, a major
modernization law providing for the partial privatization of
state enterprises has recently been passed after prolonged debate
and negotiation. So has a civil service law designed to help
streamline the bureaucracy. And other measures also should be
forthcoming in the months ahead. These reforms are part of the
price for restarting the flow of aid from international lending
institutions. (In November, Haiti received the first installment
of a 3-year $131 million loan from the International Monetary
Fund.) They are also necessary if Haiti is to attract investment
and construct an economy that is capable of operating with some
semblence of efficiency. The government monopolies, in
particular, have been notorious sources of graft, overstaffing
and incompetence. Ghost workers abound. Most companies lose money
or do not operate at all, and the only way the telephone company
can turn a profit is by charging inflated prices for overseas
calls. Without such reforms, Haiti's prospects for developing
self-sustaining economic growth are nil.
But it is not just Congress that has distinguished itself.
President Preval also deserves credit. A case can be made that,
God and Aristide willing, the Haitian revolution is entering a
new stage. The initial heroic period is over, and another kind of
leadership is needed to deal with the everyday problems of
getting things done. Within that context, political flexibility
and management/adminis-trative skills are more important than
charisma, ideology and the ability to deliver fiery speeches. It
is perhaps no accident that Preval's approval ratings are now
higher than Aristide's among urban Haitians, for substantial
majorities believe he is as well or better equipped than the
former president to manage the economy, improve living standards,
maintain law and order, improve the quality of judges and courts,
and encourage national reconciliation. 15 Moreover, there is
evidence of this in both the quality of some of his appointments
and in the administration's performance. People like Pierre
Denize, chief of the HNP; Robert Manuel, the Minister for Public
Safety; and Leslie Delatour, the Central Bank Governor; 16 are
competent technocrats who are committed to economic reforms, the
prevention of human rights violations, and all the other things
that must be done if Haiti's future is not to be a repeat of her
past.
Yet, in the same breath, one must also note that Haiti is a
country with an extremely limited human resource base. The
9

quality of personnel at the top is mixed, and there is an
appalling lack of competence below the ministerial level. In
effect, what you have in Haiti are ministers without ministries.
The comparative handful of talented and dedicated people are
constantly being bombarded--indeed, overwhelmed--by demands. They
can only do so much. Lacking proper administrative support, they
end up having to deal with problems that should be dealt with at
lower levels of the bureaucracy. As a result, things move very
slowly. Nor is there any assurance that the decisions and
policies that are made will be carried out by those who are
responsible for implementing them.
The Immensity of the Challenge.
U.S. Ambassador William Swing recently remarked that one
must start from the assumption that everything in Haiti is broken
except for the human spirit. Everything needs fixing, and there
are precious few resources. Haiti, in fact, is still not very far
from the Year One; its political, economic, police and judicial
arrangements are being built virtually from scratch. In the
process, an attempt is being made to transform deeply engrained
perceptions, attitudes, values, and behavior--the political
culture of the people. All this will require at least a
generation of effort, and probably much longer.
Looking back over the 2 years since Aristide was restored,
there has been considerable progress in building the
institutional bases of democracy, but somewhat less in changing
the political culture. The old values, attitudes and behavior
live on, and they are an enormous weight that is dragging the
country down even as it continues the struggle to get to its
feet. This can be seen everywhere. Haiti is a society that has
largely been built on mistrust. The old fears and suspicions
continue to exist just below the surface, and all it takes to
bring them into the open are events such as those of last summer.
At the same time, there is a propensity for violence which, while
not manifested in the daily lives of ordinary people, can easily
break out at moments of stress, as occurred in the aftermath of
the fall of the Duvalier regime when hundreds of Tonton Macoutes
and Vodou clergy were hunted down and killed. 17 Even in 1995,
there were over 100 cases of vigilante justice, and there were
reportedly 110 people killed in such incidents between January
and October 1996. 18 This says much about the low public confidence
in Haiti's law enforcement capabilities, especially the judicial
system. 19 It also reflects a lack of understanding of the role
that the police and courts play in a democracy. The idea that one
can look to those sources for justice--as opposed to taking
matters into your own hands--is a new idea for Haitians and will
require time to take root. 20
10

Beyond this, there is a deeply engrained, 200-year tradition
of predation to overcome. This has been a political culture in
which, traditionally, everyone has been out for himself. Every
politician wanted to be president, or at least get his share of
the spoils. Given that mentality, it should not be surprising
that the state would become a mechanism to extract wealth for the
benefit of those who controlled it. (Similarly, political parties
have usually been nothing more than vehicles for the personal
ambitions of particular leaders or aspiring leaders.) When
combined with grinding poverty, endemic corruption, and deepseated
distrust and insecurity, the result was chronic violence.
For those with the means, force or the threat of force was often
the option of first resort, and those without means became not
merely the objects but sometimes the instruments of terror. 21
While the Duvalierists have been ousted, the political culture
which spawned them has been only partially uprooted. As long as
there are weapons available and elements in the government and
opposition willing to resort to violence, democracy will remain
vulnerable.
Political culture is important in numerous other ways as
well. One can see it in the behavior of the oligarchy and many
(though by no means all) elements in the business class, whose
pursuit of self-enrichment at any cost to national development
has helped make Haiti the poorest country in the hemisphere.
Again, this has been a predatory elite, with no sense of identity
with or responsibility to the Haitian people. And that raises the
question of the role these elements will play in the "new Haiti."
Clearly, their talent and capital must be tapped if the country
is to have any hope of escaping from the quagmire of
underdevelopment. But how does one provide the kinds of
incentives that will get these elites to invest in their own
country? Certainly, it is much safer to send one's money abroad.
Moreover, even if their capital can be attracted, will it be
invested in such a way as to promote the national interest, as
well as their own private interests?
Part of the problem with the economic strategy that
international lenders have imposed on Haiti is that, within the
context of the norms and habits of the Haitian political culture,
it may perpetuate and even intensify certain abuses. How does one
assure, for instance, that privatized state monopolies will not
simply become private monopolies continuing many of the same
exploitative practices (e.g., high prices, low wages) that have
marked past behavior? And how can one prevent the kinds of
corruption that have accompanied privatization in so many other
countries? (Mexico is a classic example.) In an environment like
Haiti's, where graft is endemic and socioeconomic inequalities
immense, the danger is that neoliberal reforms may lead to even
greater inequalities and hardships. (This is generally conceded
for the short run. Haitian officials estimate that as many as
11

3,000 workers will be laid off at the overstaffed port, telephone
and electric companies and another 7,500 cut from the civil
service. 22 The hope is that in the longer term more jobs will be
created than have been eliminated, but there are no guarantees.)
Another area of concern is the extent of foreign ownership.
Most Haitian businessmen do not have the capital to buy the
larger privatized entities. This means that the major industries
are likely to be transferred to U.S., Canadian or French control.
While it can be argued that this is not neccessarily a bad thing-
-the capital has to come from somewhere and foreign owners may
actually be less susceptible to corruption and more sensitive to
their social responsibilities than Haitians--it is already a
source of discontent among some Haitian nationalists and
businessmen and could lead to a backlash.
This not an argument against reform. The old predatory and
parasitic socioeconomic structures and relationships must be
changed if Haiti is to move forward. But such transitions are
always difficult and painful. There must be social safety nets in
place to catch those who are endangered, and mechanisms of
oversight and accountability to prevent abuses. Otherwise the
damage done may offset any improvements that are made. For its
part, the Haitian government has attempted to ameliorate some of
these problems by retaining a state role in the companies that
are to be privatized. None of these entities will be totally
privately owned. Rather, the plan is to enlist private sector
capital and talent through management contracts, concessions, and
capitalization or joint ventures similar to those undertaken in
Bolivia. But how all this will work out in practice--if, indeed,
it works at all--remains to be seen.
Complicating all of these challenges enormously is a
staggering lack of resources, both human and material. This can
be seen everywhere. Take, for instance, the HNP which, as has
been suggested, is one of Haiti's success stories: The police
often lack the means to conduct basic operations. They need more
officers and vehicles, heavier weapons, more money, better
leadership--in short, more of everything. Due to the government's
financial crisis, they have gone for months at a time without
pay. 23 They suffer from an incredible shortfall of leadership and
management at all levels. Added to this, morale and public
support are seriously eroding, as officers increasingly become
the targets of political or gang violence and resort to
unnecessary violence in return.
But then the police at least function, which is more than
can be said for the judicial system. There the problems are
simply mind-boggling. In the words of one observer:
Haitian justice lacks everything: financial resources,
12

materials, competent personnel, independence, stature
and trust. Court facilities are a disgrace, courthouses
often indistinguishable from small shops or run-down
residences in Haitian cities and towns. Judges and
prosecutors, ill-trained and often chosen because of
their connections or willingness to comply with their
benefactors' demands, dispense justice to the highest
bidder or to the most powerful. No judge or prosecutor
in Haiti, until mid-1995, had received any specialized
professional training. Law schools are woefully
inadequate and lack the most rudimentary necessities
like decent classrooms and a law library; cronyism
reigns, professors are ill-trained, students illprepared,
passing grades bought and sold. 24
One of the advantages police reform has had over judicial
reform is that it could construct a new police force more-or-less
from scratch after the old police (which had been part of the
FAdH) had been dissolved. In contrast, the new Haiti has
inherited the old Haiti's judicial system (including personnel)
lock, stock and barrel. While some progress has been made in
getting rid of corrupt or incompetent judges and prosecutors,
training new ones, distributing law books and so on, judicial
reform has taken a back seat to the more immediate demands of
security. As a result, there has been a serious disconnect
between the development of these institutions. It matters little
if the police can apprehend criminals if the courts cannot
process them and the jails cannot hold them. The resulting
breakdown in the process of justice has simply added to the
demoralization of the police, fostering apathy, cynicism,
corruption and extrajudicial punishment in the field. (Not to
mention declining public support and continuing vigilante
justice.)
Another enormous complex of challenges concerns the
rejuvenation of the countryside. Uli Locher once commented that
"rural Haiti as we know it is doomed." 25 It is easy to see what he
meant. The first thing one notices when viewing Haiti from the
air is the barren mountains. Flying over rural Haiti is a lot
like flying over moonscape. Deforestation and soil erosion are
turning parts of the country into a desert. Today, a mere 3
percent of the original forest cover remains; tropical storms
have carried some 20 percent of the topsoil to the sea; and only
about 11 percent of the land is still arable. In the last half of
the 20th century, arable land per capita will have decreased
from .38 hectares to about .16 hectares, a casualty of an
exploding rural population, overworked lands, deforestation and
erosion. 26 The upshot is that Haiti can no longer feed itself.
Reversing this decline will require not only a major longterm
reforestation program, but fundamental changes in Haitian
13

ehavior. As matters now stand, there are simply too many
peasants working too little land. Accordingly, population growth
and the demand for charcoal (which accounts for much of the treecutting)
must be sharply reduced, and economic incentives and
means provided to enable farmers to cultivate their crops in more
efficient and less destructive ways. Unfortunately, there is
reason to doubt whether either the Haitian government or its
international sponsors will be up to the challenge. The former
has been ambivalent about family planning programs, with the
result that little has been accomplished. At the same time, the
U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has cut back
funds for such purposes. And as for reforestation, the USAID
track record provides ample reason for skepticism: During the
1980s, reforestation was a top priority, and by 1990 about 10
million trees a year were being grown. Even that, however, was
far from sufficient, for simultaneously an estimated 15 to 20
million trees were being cut down. Subsequently, in 1991, shortly
before the coup that deposed President Aristide, USAID abruptly
terminated the program. Annual tree planting immediately dropped
to less than 1 million. While that decision has since been
reversed, current efforts appear likely to provide for only 2 to
4 million hardwood seedlings a year, a small fraction of what is
needed. 27
Then, there is the problem of urban migration. In 1994,
Haiti had a population of roughly 7 million people. By 2025, it
will have an estimated 13.1 million. This is bad enough, but
whereas in 1994 the populace was only 30.9 percent urban, by 2025
the percentage is expected to be around 53.9 percent. While the
rural population will grow only modestly, from 4.86 million to
6.1 million, the urban population will explode more than
threefold, from 2.2 million to 7.1 million. 28 Port-au-Prince, now
roughly 1.5 million people, will be an estimated 4 million
people. This is almost unimaginable. The slums are already so
crowded and the housing so wretched that people often have to
sleep in shifts, with one group sleeping for a few hours, then
being replaced by another. In the most crowded areas, people
frequently sleep upright: One person leans against the wall with
his head in his arms, another leans against him, and so on,
sometimes as many as three or four in a row. 29
Keep in mind, too, that the unemployment rate in Haiti is,
by some estimates, around 80 percent. Can enough jobs be created
to absorb all of the newcomers? If not, what are the implications
for political stability and crime? This is not to mention
pollution, housing, education, and health services. Only 53
percent of the capital's population currently has potable water.
Raw sewage pollutes the roadsides. In the face of growing demand,
the water table below the city will continue to recede. Some
observers estimate that the water will turn brackish within the
next few years. 30
14

One cannot in this short essay deal with the full range of
socioeconomic problems Haiti will face. To take just a few of the
more telling indicators: Even before the current crisis, Haiti
had the lowest per capita income ($360) and life expectancy (48
years), and the highest infant mortality (124 per 1,000) and
illiteracy (63-90 percent, depending on the criteria employed)
rates in the Western Hemisphere. At least 70 percent of the
children suffered from malnutrition, and about 33 percent were
seriously malnourished. (Extreme malnutrition made Haiti the only
country in the region with high incidence of kwashiorkor and
marasmus.) With only 810 doctors and even fewer nurses to serve a
population of between 6 and 7 million people, Haitians could not
even begin to cope with their severe health problems. To the
traditional afflictions of tuberculosis (affecting 10 percent of
the population), malaria, salmonellosis, venereal disease, and
the endemic illnesses associated with malnutrition has recently
been added the modern-day version of the plague: the AIDS virus.
Between 7 and 10 percent of pregnant women in urban areas tested
HIV positive. 31
These conditions worsened considerably during the period of
military rule (1991-94), in part because of the international
embargo of the regime. (Per capita income, for instance, fell to
around $250-260, and AIDS spread to the countryside as several
hundred thousand urban residents fled the cities.) 32 More
recently, of course, the situation has improved due to some $800
million in international aid and loans. Nevertheless, much of
this asssistance has been in the form of short-term, quick-impact
projects imposed from above, without consulting the local
populace about its needs and desires. As a consequence, "few
durable new invest- ments materialized and fewer still benefited
the poor majority." 33 Moreover, the aid freeze resulting from the
deadlock between the Haitian government and international
financial institutions over privatization postponed the tackling
of costly infrastructural projects and prevented any kind of
sustained economic recovery. Thus, relatively few permanent jobs
have been created. The problem of chronic poverty has been
largely ignored. Popular expectations that democracy would bring
a marked improvement in living conditions have been frustrated,
resulting in growing disillusionment and a heightened potential
for violence.
This brings us to the difficult question of absorptive
capacity. Because of widespread corruption and incompe-tence,
Haiti has only a very limited ability to effectively use the aid
that is being doled out. To take a dramatic example: In
September, the author was told that only about 200 of the 500
vehicles given to the Haitian National Police were still
functioning. In large part, this was because many of the HNP's
recruits did not know how to drive (almost none had licenses at
15

the time they entered the force), 34 and many others were
unfamiliar with even the basics of maintenance, such as the need
to occasionally put oil in their vehicles. In the carnage that
followed the fielding of the HNP's automobile fleet, scores of
cars and trucks were wrecked or broke down because of negligence.
Partially as a result, the police today are frequently unable to
respond to calls for help. 35
Clearly, one cannot simply dole out money or equipment with
no questions asked and inadequate supervision. Still, there must
be some balance between the entirely justifiable concern of
donors that their assistance not be wasted and the need for such
aid to better serve locally established priorities and be managed
by Haitian institutions. One should remember that aid can also be
squandered on highly paid foreign consultants. As Larry Minear
has noted, the cost of a single day of a World Bank consultant's
time, including travel, translation and local expenses, could pay
two or three days operating costs of a privately run health
clinic in a Port-au-Prince slum. This is one reason, among many
others, why there has been such a disparity between the massive
international resources expended on Haiti and the lack of
sustainable results. 36
No Easy Answers.
So, is Haiti a "success" or a "failure"? There are no easy
answers. Americans have a tendency to view the world in
simplistic terms: There are blacks and whites, heroes and
villains, successes and failures. But in the real world, the
categories are often blurred. In making judgments, the proper
frame of reference is the country's past, rather than some
idealistic--and invariably culture-bound--standard of what ought
to be.
On this basis, U.S. policy to date must be judged a
qualified success: Aristide was restored and political power
transferred from one duly elected government to another; a new
police force has been created which, for all its limitations, is
functioning reasonably well under extremely difficult conditions;
though political violence and human rights violations persist,
they are not the massive problem they have been in the past.
Today, indeed, Haiti has a government that not only has the broad
support of the populace, but is clearly the most responsible and
competent government the country has had in decades--and arguably
ever.
The problem is that when one looks to the future, judgments
become much more tenuous. Clearly, democratization is not
irreversible. The situation remains both fragile and volatile.
Crises are abundant. In many respects, the challenge resembles
16

that of a man attempting to climb an enormous mountain: He moves
slowly, one step at a time, planting his feet carefully so as not
to slip and fall. Now and then, he makes a misstep, losing his
grip, and has to scramble to regain his footing. But he keeps
climbing. The danger, of course, is that at some point he may
make a more serious mistake, or his toehold may crumble, and he
may plunge into the abyss below.
This is Haiti today. It is simply too early to tell whether
the experiment will be successful or not. What one can say,
however, is that the odds are formidable. The country's problems
are so huge, its resources so limited and the weight of the
political culture so great that one should harbor no illusions.
Even if Haitians can forge a stable democracy--and this will be
no easy task--the socioeconomic challenges will be even more
difficult. Privatization is not a "silver bullet." It will not
solve all of the country's socioeconomic ills, and it may even
create some new ones. (Ironically, it will also require a more
sophisticated governmental regulatory role.) Haiti is in the
process of transformation from a rural/ agrarian society into an
urban/light industrial society. Traditional society is crumbling
because its economic base is disintegrating. This is not a pretty
thing to watch. It will involve considerable suffering and
insecurity. And there is no guarantee that Haitians will be much
better off in the new society that is emerging than in the old
one they are leaving.
The bottom line is that if Haiti is to have a reasonable
chance at a brighter future, it will need a lot of help over a
long period. Nationbuilding is never a quick and easy process.
One of the dangers is that the international community-especially
the United States--will not stay the course. Now that
the U.S. elections are over, American interest in Haiti may
disappear. This would be unfortunate and shortsighted, for
Haitians are not likely to let us forget them. If political and
socioeconomic conditions deteriorate again, the flow of boat
people will resume. There are already roughly a million Haitians
in the United States. How many more come will in part be
determined by the long-term success or failure of the current
experiment in democratization and socioeconomic development.
What, specifically, should the international community and
the United States do? Elsewhere, the author has presented a
detailed list of policy recommendations, and these need not be
repeated here. 37 A few brief observations, however, would seem in
order:
First, the moment of truth will come when foreign
peacekeepers leave Haiti. As matters now stand, the HNP is simply
not capable of maintaining law and order by itself. Fortunately,
this has been recognized. In early December, the U.N. Security
17

Council extended the current force (UNSMIH) for 6 more months,
with the possibility of a final 2-month renewal through July
1997. One must assume that by next summer support for a continued
U.N. peacekeeping presence will have finally evaporated, and that
other arrangements, either bilateral or multilateral, will have
to be made. (Again, it is likely that the Haitian police will
still not be sufficiently trained and equipped to cope with the
situation alone.) Accordingly, the international community--and
especially the United States and Canada--needs to begin working
out security arrangements for a post-UNSMIH Haiti.
Second, an accelerated effort should be made to create a
functioning judicial system. In comparison to the energy and
resources that have gone into the Haitian National Police, this
sector of law enforcement has been sorely neglected. Yet, without
just and effective courts, attempts to institute the rule of law
will be doomed. Put another way, the sooner Haiti has an
effective judicial system to complement the professional police
force that is being constructed, the sooner foreign peacekeepers
can go home.
Third, much more attention needs to be given to the task of
creating an ecologically viable Haiti. Deforestation, erosion,
soil exhaustion, water depletion, desertification and rapid
population growth cannot be allowed to continue or the country
will become utterly uninhabitable. Of all the problems Haiti
faces, this complex of maladies, with their built-in momentum,
poses the greatest danger to the country's survival.
Fourth, the United States should convert its military
support mission into a semipermanent operation with ongoing
infrastructural and humanitarian responsibilities. One of the
mistakes the United States made when it went into Haiti was
imposing severe limitations on nation- building operations. This
was a golden opportunity lost. Haitians would have loved for the
United States to have done more of this kind of thing, and they
still would. Certainly, the need is there.
Finally, there is a need to continue pressing the Haitian
government with regard to human rights violations. If allowed to
continue, the recent slide down the slippery slope of political
violence could destroy everything that has been accomplished. One
should caution, however, that it makes little sense to cut off
aid for the HNP, as has sometimes been proposed. Rather, the
police need more officers, equipment and training, including
continuing human rights instruction. (Among other things, the
MICIVIH and CivPol missions should be continued.) One does not
create a better police force by denying it the means to become a
truly professional and competent organization. Quite the
opposite.
18

ENDNOTES
1. Donald E. Schulz, Whither Haiti?, Carlisle Barracks, PA:
Strategic Studies Institute, 1996.
2. Lavalas is Aristide and Preval's political movement.
Macoute refers to the Tonton Macoutes, the paramilitary arm of
the Duvalier dictatorship. Evans Paul's accusation may be found
in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), Daily Report:
Latin America, August 26, 1996.
3. Larry Rohter, "Haiti's "Little Kings' Again Terrorize the
Populace," New York Times, August 25, 1996.
4. Christopher Marquis, "U.S. Rushes Security Agents to
Haiti," Miami Herald, September 14, 1996; Larry Rohter, "Pressed
by U.S., Haitian President Begins Purge of Guards," New York
Times, September 16, 1996.
5. The U.S. Embassy does not like to use the word "purge"
with regard to these cases. At this writing, 9 people have been
placed on "administrative suspension" pending investigation. They
have not been "fired." As yet, none have been found guilty of
anything. Theoretically, at least, they might still be restored
to their old positions.
6. Christopher Marquis and Sandra Marquez Garcia, "Aristide
Says Corruption, Chaos Tainting Preval's Government," Miami
Herald, September 20, 1996; FBIS, Daily Report: Latin America,
September 24, 1996.
7. A May 1996 U.S. Information Agency poll of 1208 adults in
Port-au-Prince, Cap Haitien, and Les Cayes, for instance, found
that his approval rating had dropped from 91 percent to 73
percent since the previous October; moreover, those holding very
good opinions of him had fallen from 84 percent to 42 percent. In
contrast, 78 percent of these urban Haitians said that Preval was
handling the presidency very well or fairly well, and many
(especially the university educated) thought he would do a better
job at managing the economy than Aristide. Office of Research and
Media Reaction, USIA Briefing Paper, Washington, DC, B-31-96,
August 2, 1996, p. 1.
8. FBIS, Daily Report: Latin America, November 6, 1996.
9. In March 1995, Borge and Associates polled 1200 Haitians
on the national situation. Sixty percent felt that the army
should be legally prohibited (24 percent did not), and 72 percent
said that Aristide had been right to retire its officers (only 4
percent disagreed). Arias Foundation/Borge and Associates,
Republic of Haiti National Survey of Public Opinion, March 1995,
19

xerox, pp. 7, 11.
10. See Mission Civile Internationale en Haiti, OEA/ONU
(MICIVIH), La Police Nationale d'Haiti et les Droits de l'Homme,
July 1996; and The Situation of Democracy and Human Rights in
Haiti, Report of the Secretary-General, A/51/703, December 2,
1996.
11. Seventy-one percent, according to the May USIA poll.
About half the respondents in that same poll also said that the
police were doing at least a fairly good job at maintaining law
and order, and 42 percent had a favorable opinion of HNP
Director-General Pierre Denize. Office of Research and Media
Reaction, USIA Briefing Paper, pp. 6, 8. One must caution that
this is not a representative cross section of the Haitian
population. Roughly 70 percent of Haitians live in the
countryside, and there is no way of knowing for sure what their
attitudes are.
12. Letter to the author.
13. Most recently, the government has moved to defuse this
issue by publicly committing itself to address the demands of the
demobilized soldiers. It remains to be seen, however, whether it
can successfully do this. Resources are extremely scarce, and
there is opposition from those who believe that the ex-FAdH do
not deserve such consideration.
14. From July to December 1995, there were only 11 reported
instances of police mistreatment; between January and May 1996,
in contrast, the number rose to 86. The comparable figures for
killed and wounded were from 6 to 20 and from 21 to 30,
respectively. While the data for the rest of 1996 are incomplete,
it appears that over 40 people were killed in 1996. On the bright
side, the number of allegations of beatings of people in police
custody has recently decreased. MICIVIH, La Police Nationale
d'Haiti, p. 55; and The Situation of Democracy and Human Rights
in Haiti.
15. On the economy, for instance, 45 percent felt that he
will do a better job and 31 percent felt he will do the same. On
improving the lives of Haitians, the figures were 34 percent and
41 percent, respectively. Office of Research and Media Reaction,
USIA Briefing Paper, pp. 6, 8.
16. Actually, Delatour was originally appointed by Aristide,
but Preval kept him on.
17. John Merrill, "Vodou and Political Reform in Haiti: Some
Lessons for the International Community," Fletcher Forum, Vol.
20, No. 1, Winter/Spring 1996, pp. 45-46.
20

18. The first figure is from a U.S. Embassy source, the
second from MICIVIH's The Situation of Democracy and Human Rights
in Haiti.
19. It is significant that in the USIA poll of urban
Haitians only 30 percent of the respondents felt there had been
progress in terms of improving the judicial system. Office of
Research and Media Reaction, USIA Briefing Paper, p. 8.
20. Rachel Neild tells the story of how the residents of
Gonaives lost respect for the police because the latter were "too
nice." After the populace began challenging and throwing stones
at them, officers began beating up detainees and committing other
abuses, which in turn led to greater popular respect for the HNP.
"Police Reform in Haiti: The Challenge of Demilitarizing Public
Order and Establishing the Rule of Law," presentation at a
conference organized by the Canadian Foundation for the Americas,
November 7 and 8, 1996, p. 6.
21. Michel-Rolf Trouillot, for instance, has remarked on the
number of extreme abuses committed by the Duvalier regime's
henchmen. He notes that the perpetrators were mostly "miserable
wretches whose average incomes hardly exceeded what some elite
families spend for four servants." See Haiti: State Against
Nation, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1990, p. 155.
22. Carla Anne Robbins, "No Quick Fix: Haiti Tastes Freedom,
But Efforts to Rebuild Run Into Roadblocks," The Wall Street
Journal, October 30, 1996.
23. In early November, Haiti received the initial
installment of a $131 million loan from the International
Monetary Fund, which should allow the government to pay public
employees their long-overdue salaries.
24. William G. O'Neill, "No Longer a Pipe-Dream? Justice in
Haiti," paper presented before the conference on "Dialogue for
Development: The Political and Economic Reconstruction of Haiti,"
Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, September 23, 1995, p. 2. For a recent
detailed report on the state of the judicial system, see Jean
Joseph Exume, Problemes Actuels Identifies dans le Systeme
Judiciaire, Port-au-Prince, September 23, 1996 (draft).
25. Uli Locher, "Land Distribution, Land Tenure and Land
Erosion in Haiti," paper presented at the 12th Annual Conference
of the Society for Caribbean Studies, July 12-14, 1988, p. 16.
26. Mats Lundahl, "The Haitian Dilemma Reexamined: Lessons
From the Past in the Light of Some New Economic Theory," paper
presented at the conference on "Dialogue for Development: The
21

Political and Economic Reconstruction of Haiti," p. 28; Donald E.
Schulz and Gabriel Marcella, Reconciling the Irreconcilable: The
Troubled Outlook for U.S. Policy Toward Haiti, Carlisle Barracks,
PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 1994, p. 5.
27. Ernest H. Preeg, The Haitian Dilemma: A Case Study in
Demographics, Development, and U.S. Foreign Policy, Washington,
DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1996, pp. 33-
34, 37-39.
28. Population Division, Department for Economic and Social
Information and Policy Analysis, United Nations, 1994 Revision.
Electronic document: gopher://gopher.undp.org:70/00/ungophers/
popln/wdtrends/urban, December 13, 1995.
29. Amy Wilentz, The Rainy Season: Haiti Since Duvalier, New
York: Simon and Schuster, 1989, p. 18.
3-4.
30. Preeg, The Haitian Dilemma, pp. 46-47.
31. Schulz and Marcella, Reconciling the Irreconcilable, pp.
32. Schulz, Whither Haiti?, p. 11.
33. Robert Maguire, Edwige Balutansky, Jacques Fomerand,
Larry Minear, William G. O'Neill, Thomas G. Weiss, and Sarah
Zaidi, Haiti Held Hostage: International Responses to the Quest
for Nationhood, 1986 to 1996, Occasional Paper No. 23,
Providence, RI: Thomas J. Watson, Jr. Institute for International
Studies, Brown University, 1996, p. 95. See also pp. 78-82, 94-
96.
34. According to CivPol estimates, as few as 2 percent may
have had licenses. Rachel Neild, The Haitian National Police,
Washington, DC: Washington Office on Latin America, March 18,
1996, p. 13.
35. Similarly, many radios were lost or stolen. Much
progress has since been made in establishing logistical controls
and maintenance systems. Most of the police have received driving
lessons, and several facilities have been set up where Haitians
are being trained as mechanics.
36. Maguire, et al., Haiti Held Hostage, pp. 110-112.
37. See Schulz, Whither Haiti?, pp. 35-42. See also Preeg,
The Haitian Dilemma; Maguire, et al., Haiti Held Hostage, pp. 85-
108; and Jennifer L. McCoy, Haiti: Prospects for Political and
Economic Reconstruction, Cambridge, MA: World Peace Foundation,
pp. 29-30.
22

U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE
Major General Richard A. Chilcoat
Commandant
*****
STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE
Director
Colonel Richard H. Witherspoon
Director of Research
Dr. Earl H. Tilford, Jr.
Author
Donald E. Schulz
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