Johanna Popjanevski - The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

14Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 12 December2007FIELD REPORTSTENSIONS IN ABKHAZIA RISE AS TBILISI PREPARES FORPRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSJohanna PopjanevskiOnly weeks ahead of the Georgian presidentialelections, tensions are again rising in the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict zone. After a National SecurityCouncil meeting in Tbilisi on December 10, theGeorgian authorities criticized Russia’s continuingexploitation of the domestic situation in Georgiathrough stepping up its military presence inAbkhazia. Tbilisi now urges Moscow to refrainfrom taking advantage of the election periodthrough provocative actions with regard to theseparatist regions and the UN to closely observe andreact on the developments in the Abkhaz conflictzone.Georgian Minister for conflict resolution, DavitBakradze, warned of Russian mobilization inAbkhazia already on November 12, pointing at anincrease of military hardware and personnel inAbkhazia in connection with the November unrestin Tbilisi. During the past week, Tbilisi stepped upits criticism, objecting particularly to the rotation of600 CIS peacekeepers in the conflict zone which itreferred to as a cover-up for Russian mobilization inAbkhazia. The rotation took place under thedirection of CISPK commander-in-Chief, GeneralSergey Chaban, who was declared an unwantedperson by the Georgian authorities in October,following a standoff between Russian peacekeepersand Georgian Interior Ministry officers inGanmukhuri, on the Georgian side of the Line ofControl. The Georgian side has since called oninternational agencies to back Tbilisi’s plea forChaban to leave the conflict zone, but with noresult. The Russian side dismisses Tbilisi’sallegations of a military step-up in Abkhazia, andmaintains that the rotation was a routine procedurein accordance with the 1994 ceasefire agreement,involving no deployment of additional arms orservicemen.Indeed, the January 5 presidential election inGeorgia has brought the Abkhaz and SouthOssetian issues into the regional spotlight. As partof his election campaign, former president in lateNovember, Saakashvili promised the Abkhaz IDPsin Georgia a safe return to their homes in thenearest future and to resolve the South Ossetia issuewithin months. However, Moscow’s repeatedstatements in favor of Abkhaz and South Ossetianindependence indicate that the battle over theseparatist regions is far from settled. In particular,the recent statement by Boris Gryzlov, Head of theruling United Russia Party, that the Duma mayaddress the issue of independence of the separatistregions as early as January 2008 has triggered aharsh response by the Georgian side. Severalrepresentatives from the Georgian leadership havestated that such an action by the Russia may triggeran armed confrontation between Georgia andRussia. The Georgian government is also pleadingfor continuing Western support for Georgia’s