Johanna Popjanevski - The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

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14Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 12 December2007FIELD REPORTSTENSIONS IN ABKHAZIA RISE AS TBILISI PREPARES FORPRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSJohanna PopjanevskiOnly weeks ahead of the Georgian presidentialelections, tensions are again rising in the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict zone. After a National SecurityCouncil meeting in Tbilisi on December 10, theGeorgian authorities criticized Russia’s continuingexploitation of the domestic situation in Georgiathrough stepping up its military presence inAbkhazia. Tbilisi now urges Moscow to refrainfrom taking advantage of the election periodthrough provocative actions with regard to theseparatist regions and the UN to closely observe andreact on the developments in the Abkhaz conflictzone.Georgian Minister for conflict resolution, DavitBakradze, warned of Russian mobilization inAbkhazia already on November 12, pointing at anincrease of military hardware and personnel inAbkhazia in connection with the November unrestin Tbilisi. During the past week, Tbilisi stepped upits criticism, objecting particularly to the rotation of600 CIS peacekeepers in the conflict zone which itreferred to as a cover-up for Russian mobilization inAbkhazia. The rotation took place under thedirection of CISPK commander-in-Chief, GeneralSergey Chaban, who was declared an unwantedperson by the Georgian authorities in October,following a standoff between Russian peacekeepersand Georgian Interior Ministry officers inGanmukhuri, on the Georgian side of the Line ofControl. The Georgian side has since called oninternational agencies to back Tbilisi’s plea forChaban to leave the conflict zone, but with noresult. The Russian side dismisses Tbilisi’sallegations of a military step-up in Abkhazia, andmaintains that the rotation was a routine procedurein accordance with the 1994 ceasefire agreement,involving no deployment of additional arms orservicemen.Indeed, the January 5 presidential election inGeorgia has brought the Abkhaz and SouthOssetian issues into the regional spotlight. As partof his election campaign, former president in lateNovember, Saakashvili promised the Abkhaz IDPsin Georgia a safe return to their homes in thenearest future and to resolve the South Ossetia issuewithin months. However, Moscow’s repeatedstatements in favor of Abkhaz and South Ossetianindependence indicate that the battle over theseparatist regions is far from settled. In particular,the recent statement by Boris Gryzlov, Head of theruling United Russia Party, that the Duma mayaddress the issue of independence of the separatistregions as early as January 2008 has triggered aharsh response by the Georgian side. Severalrepresentatives from the Georgian leadership havestated that such an action by the Russia may triggeran armed confrontation between Georgia andRussia. The Georgian government is also pleadingfor continuing Western support for Georgia’s
Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 12 December 2007 15territorial integrity, should Kosovo’s independencebe recognized by the western community.For Tbilisi, timing for attempting to regain controlover its separatist territories could not be worse.Sukhumi is unlikely to resume any negotiationswith the Georgian side before the Kosovo issue issettled, and is seemingly mobilizing its ownresources in case of a confrontation with Georgia.Aware of Tbilisi’s intentions of declaring theRussian-led peacekeeping mission illegal in a nearfuture, Abkhaz de facto President Bagapshcontinues to argue that the Abkhaz army has thecapacity to defend the Abkhaz territory againstGeorgian aggression, should the CIS mandate besuspended. On December 6, Georgian TV stationRustavi-2 reported that the Abkhaz de factoPresident had declared a state of Emergency inAbkhazia, motivated by anticipated provocationsfrom the Georgian side during the election process.These reports were however later dismissed by theAbkhaz side. Last week Georgian media reportedalso that the Abkhaz side is forcefully recruitingyoung ethnic Georgians in the Gali district to theAbkhaz separatist army. After the December 10NSC meeting, Georgian foreign minister GelaBezhuashvili accused the Abkhaz side of placingmines in the Gali district and along the border toGeorgia proper.Once again, the Georgian side is pleading withthe international community to ensure thatRussia’s actions in the conflict zones are inaccordance with international and Georgianlegislation, and once again a response is absent.While all eyes are on the Georgian electionsnext month, the situation in Abkhazia israpidly deteriorating and will, at the very least,result in a serious set-back in the Georgian-Abkhaz mediation process, which only monthsago showed prospect of progressing.BERDIMUHAMMEDOV EMBARKS ON FINANCIAL REFORMSChemen DurdiyevaOn November 12, 2007, Turkmen PresidentGurbanguly Berdimuhammedov held an extensiveplenary session of the Cabinet where the results ofthe past ten months were evaluated in all sectors ofeconomy. Amidst the issues being reviewed, themain highlights were significant cabinetreshufflings and the beginning of major financialreforms in Turkmenistan.This event constituted the first sweeping cabinetreshuffles since Berdimuhammedov was sworn in.After the ministers of all sectors of the economyreported a significant growth rate, major criticismswere issued regarding the heads of the country’s fivevelayats. H.Muhammedov, the head of the newlycreated national watchdog committee – the HigherControl Chamber – reported to the President thatthe ongoing agricultural reforms are facingsignificant obstacles due to the velayat heads’sluggish work in the fields. Particularly, criticismsinvolved the shortfalls in cotton production and thelack of financial incentive programs for agriculturalworkers. As a result, the khyakims or the heads ofthree (Ahal, Mary and Lebap) of the five regions ofTurkmenistan were sacked, and investigativemeasures were rapidly instituted.Making structural changes in the agricultural sectorhas remained one of the top priorities ofBerdimuhammedov’s most recent reforms. InMarch of this year, during the twentieth session ofthe Khalk Maslahaty, the country’s chief legislative
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Johanna Popjanevski - The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

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