futron's 2010 space competitiveness index - Futron Corporation

FUTRON’S 2010 SPACE COMPETITIVENESS INDEXA Comparative Analysis of How Countries Invest In and Benefitfrom Space IndustryExecutive Summary

FUTRON’s 2010 SPACE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX (SCI)A Comparative Analysis of How Countries Invest in and Benefit from Space IndustryEXECUTIVE SUMMARYSince the successful launch of Sputnik more than 50 years ago, we have lived in a world transformedby space. Space is practical, economic, and strategic. Countries that participate in space reap tangiblescientific, technical, and financial rewards that improve the lives of their citizens, increase their baseof knowledge, advance their productive capabilities, expand their range of economic activities, andenhance their geopolitical position. Nations active in space accrue strategic benefits over their peers—and nations that lead in space develop sustained advantages that underpin, complement, and augmenttheir leadership across all other dimensions of global commerce, technology, prestige, and power. Thisrealization has made space an arena for both international cooperation and competition.Futron’s 2010 Space Competitiveness Index is an analytical framework that defines, quantifies, andranks global competitiveness within the space industry. By measuring the underlying drivers ofeconomic advantage, the methodology is designed to assess the ability of a country to undertake spaceactivities and evaluates their relative performance within a globally competitive market. With itsstrategic focus, Futron’s 2010 SCI builds upon the work conducted for our inaugural 2008 and 2009reports, as well as incorporating extensive feedback from clients and readers. The SCI goes beyond atypical economic assessment to consider the comparative space-related strengths, weaknesses,opportunities, and threats for each of the 10 countries examined. These country profiles were reviewedand vetted by industry experts. The countries identified as the top 10 leading space-faring nations in2010 include: Brazil, Canada, China, Europe (treated as an integrated whole), India, Israel, Japan,Russia, South Korea, and the United States.Executives, policy makers, and thought leaders who seek to shape the future space landscape—andmaximize their competitive advantages within it—require a nuanced, methodical, and rigorouscomparative analysis of the dynamics and benefits of both competitive and collaborative postures.Futron Corporation, a premier provider of decision management solutions (DMS), created its annual,independent Space Competitiveness Index (SCI) expressly for this purpose. The SpaceCompetitiveness Index is a decision management tool. It offers decision makers, faced with financialchallenges and increasing global competition, an ongoing benchmark to continuously re-assess thecomparative landscape of space activity—and to contemplate its implications for their respectivegovernments, businesses, and organizations. Nations, militaries, companies, and other actors acrossthe world seek to derive maximum economic, security, diplomatic, technological, and scientificbenefits from space. Futron created the Space Competitiveness Index to contribute to theunderstanding of these complex strategic issues in a structured way.WHAT’S NEW IN FUTRON’S 2010 SPACE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX?In 2010, Futron Corporation has built on its foundational 2008 and 2009 studies to provide an updatedand refined analysis of international space competitiveness. Futron’s 2010 Space CompetitivenessIndex examines the activities of leading space-participant nations from a fresh perspective, surveyingthree-year trends as a benchmark, and providing further discussion of their respective strengths,weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The SCI provides a structured analysis of international spacecompetitiveness by measuring 50+ individual metrics across three underlying dimensions ofcompetitiveness: government, human capital, and industry. Using this framework, Futron offers acomparative assessment of 10 nations: Brazil, Canada, China, Europe (viewed as a single entity),India, Israel, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States (U.S.).1Futron Corporation

Futron’s 2010 Space Competitiveness Index (SCI) · Executive SummaryFutron’s 2010 SCI expands its analysis of each country, providing added data, where applicable, onnational space assets, infrastructure, budget, and commercial sector revenues. This enhanced focus onthe 10 leaders is balanced by a discussion of five emerging space actors spanning diverse regions ofthe world: Australia, Iran, Singapore, South Africa, and Ukraine.In order to provide the most current and relevant information on key industry verticals, Futron also isintroducing an innovative delivery system for its detailed segment analyses. In previous versions ofthe SCI, segment analyses were released within the full report. In 2010, purchasers of the full reportwill receive segment analyses throughout the year, totaling five in all. This rolling delivery offocused segment analyses will provide an up-to-the-minute view of global competitive dynamicswithin the following market areas:• Civil Space Exploration• Military Space• Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT)• Remote Sensing• Space Technology Capability BaseFutron Corporation is pleased to announce that the extensive full data set used to produce the 2010SCI also is available. For further details, please visit our website at www.futron.com.KEY SPACE COMPETITIVENESS THEMESGlobal space activity drives a substantial economic engine, fosters national pride, and enhancesmilitary power. Some nations invest in space for the domestic esteem and international respectassociated with technological advances and satellite launches. Others focus more on the social benefitsderived from communications services, imagery, and applied sciences. Militaries also have longrealized the force multiplication effect of space assets, including secure communications,reconnaissance, force tracking, and the remote coordination and operation of war-fighting assets. Yetincreasingly, military space is interwoven with civilian and commercial space systems andinfrastructure—adding a new layer of complexity to governmental decision-making, nationalindustrial policy, and the participation of the private sector within the space sector. Moreover,whatever the purpose of space investment, it is enabled by a common denominator: human capital.Knowledge, skills, and expertise ultimately define the leading edge of space activity. In a world wheretalent is mobile, the ability to educate, attract, retain, and continuously enrich a base of skilledprofessionals is a growing determinant of which nations and actors lead in space competitiveness.While nations invest in space targeting different outcomes, the overall theme of space competitivenessis linked to national policy, national security, educational infrastructure, and economic strength.Together, the civilian, military, and commercial space sectors focus the broader space discoursearound key questions such as the relative competitive position of traditional space leaders; the role ofemerging space powers; and the aims of newer or smaller space participants. This study seeks toaddress pivotal and timely strategic questions about space power and competitiveness:• How does space competitiveness impact larger socio-economic trends?• Will the worldwide economic slowdown alter government and enterprise space plans?• How will the recent changes in the United States civil space program affect U.S. competitivetrajectory over the next five years?• What will be the strategic interplay among the three traditional, and current, leading spaceactors: the United States, Europe, and Russia?© 20102

• As Japan continues to implement its comprehensive Basic Space Law reforms, will it convertadministrative momentum into more pronounced regional space leadership?• Is China on track to achieve the ambitious space goals it has set for 2010 and 2011?• Will Indian investments in new launch and satellite platforms result in significanttechnological advances?• Will South Korea rebound from its failed launch attempt to conduct its first successful orbitalmission, reshaping the Asian space dynamic?• Will Canada’s military space policy refresh lead to closer alignment with the United Statesand Europe, or instead increase investment in independent capabilities?• Will Israel develop the political consensus to make larger space investments in order toconvert its niche strengths into an expanded international presence?• Will Brazil translate its current review of space plans into concerted national action?• Will emerging space participants such as Australia, Ukraine, and others surge to displace anyof the current leading nations?• As Iran builds on the success of its first orbital launch, will it disrupt the current spacelandscape, or be open to international collaboration and partnership?• What are the economic consequences of a commercial space environment developed bymultiple international providers of key technologies, systems, and services?To provide practical insight into these strategic questions, Futron Corporation is pleased toprovide this 2010 update of its Space Competitiveness Index. Some top-level findings of our SCIare provided below.SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS• Brazil has begun to renew government focus on space activity, but it remains to be seen whether apolicy refresh will sustain the country’s position as the regional space leader.• Canada’s nuanced strategic balancing among domestic and international space programs,priorities, and partnerships continue to yield key competitiveness advantages.• China remains a leading space actor, but the country has recently experienced slight declines inrelative competitiveness due mainly to comparatively fewer space missions.• European competitiveness has risen slightly due to more cohesive policy as well as sustainedindustry performance.• India’s increased civil space funding, updated policy commitments, and targeted commercialoutreach continue to maximize its strengths.• Israel continues to play important niche roles in the optical equipment and small satellite markets,but lacks global commercial scale, and is inhibited by a lack of clear government commitment toits national space program.• Japan continues to show strong performance as its recent government reforms filter through to itsindustrial base.• Russia has benefited from updated government policy, increased transparency, formalizedinternational partnerships, and ongoing status as the world leader in number of annual launches.• South Korea maintains steady space investment and plans a second orbital launch attemptfollowing its abortive Korea Small Launch Vehicle (KSLV-1) flight in 2009.3Futron Corporation

Futron’s 2010 Space Competitiveness Index (SCI) · Executive Summary• The United States (U.S.) remains the current leader in space competitiveness, but its relativeposition continues to decline against the increasing capabilities of other space-participant nations.• International space collaboration is taking shape as a concerted national competitiveness strategy,especially among smaller actors.• Three distinct competitiveness tiers are clearly emerging, with especially intense competitionwithin the middle tier.2010 SPACE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX – HISTORIC TRENDSIn addition to providing a framework for analyzing current competitiveness, Futron’s 2010 SCIequips decision makers with the ability to look at trends over time. The refined 2010 SCI provides acomprehensive benchmark from which to view the industry going forward, and Futron plans tocontinue its efforts to accurately measure and characterize the importance of space economics.This said, in order to put the results of the 2010 Space Competitiveness Index in perspective, Futronhas also analyzed space trends over the last decade based on spacecraft manufacturing and orbitallaunch activity, as seen below. Additional historic data, including year-on-year trends, are alsoincluded in the full report.ORBITAL LAUNCH AND SPACECRAFT MANUFACTURING TRENDS, 2000-2009629 Successful Orbital Launches 1,027 Spacecraft Manufactured2010 SPACE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX – FULL REPORT OUTLINEThe full report version of Futron’s 2010 Space Competitiveness Index features approximately120 additional pages of research and analysis including:• An Introduction offering insight into the SCI concept, purpose, methodology and structure.• Expanded country-by-country profiles for each nation’s space assets and efforts. These includea review of key events in 2009, and a look forward to developments expected in 2010. Eachcountry overview includes a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis.• An examination of five nations emerging in space competitiveness.• A discussion of cross-cutting segmentation themes shaping the space competitiveness discourse.• Five updated and in-depth segment analyses to be emailed to report providers throughout theyear on a rolling basis:© 20104

‣ Civil Space Exploration‣ Military Space‣ Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT)‣ Remote Sensing‣ Space Technology Capability BaseIn addition, Futron Corporation is pleased to announce that the extensive data set used to produce the2010 SCI is also for sale. For further details, please visit our website at www.futron.com.ABOUT FUTRONFutron Corporation is a premier provider of decision management solutions that enhance our clients’ability to make complex choices. We collaborate with our customers to remove the guesswork fromdecisions by qualitatively and quantitatively evaluating future outcomes to ensure optimal results. Ouranalytic models, methodologies, and data repositories transform information into intelligence. Ourmultidisciplinary, world-class team offers comprehensive knowledge of the aerospace, satellite, andtelecommunications industries, with deep experience in statistical analysis, competitive assessments,forecasting, and strategy. In business since 1986, Futron has a staff of some 100 experts, includingpolicy analysts, management leaders, economists, regulatory specialists, PhDs, and engineers. Futronis headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland with offices in Houston, Texas and Hampton, Virginia.Futron Corporation’s Space & Telecommunications Division provides strategic market andtechnology advising services to space, telecommunications, and general business enterprises.• We combine technical and policy expertise with strategic depth to produce sophisticateddecision management solutions for the highest levels of commercial and public sectordecision-making.‣ Leading-edge, proprietary methodologies for data modeling, trend analyses, andforecasting‣ Comprehensive in-house information resources, databases and industry contacts‣ Extensive experience with government, military, and commercial clients• We enable decision makers to anticipate market and technology trends by understanding thecomplex interplay between government needs and commercial markets.‣ Multiple industry-cited studies examining strategic and tactical space technologies onbehalf of military, government, and commercial clients‣ Competitive industrial base and technology profiles‣ Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) analyses‣ Political-Economic-Social-Technological (PEST) analyses‣ Scenario development• We combine the agility of a small firm with a broad strategic and international perspective ofthe space, satellite, telecommunications, and security landscape to ensure commercial andgovernment leaders make the best-informed decisions possible.‣ Nuanced understanding of the commercial, government, and military sectors, refined over20 years offering premier decision support management services in the public and privatearenas‣ Identification of areas and avenues for cooperation among government, military, andcommercial actors‣ Objective perspective to pinpoint unaddressed strategic needs and recommend solutions5Futron Corporation

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