Keith Porter

MHDP SCENARIOS:STIMULUS & PROBEOF RESILIENCYProf Keith PorterUniversity of Colorado, Boulder14 July 2009

MultihazardsDemonstration ProjectUse hazards science to improve communities’ resiliency to natural disastersEngage emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies,and others in preparing for major natural disastersHelp to set research goals and provide decision-making information for lossreduction and improved resiliencyWhat we do now, before the disaster,will determine what our lives are like afterEarthScience:DesignearthquakeEngineering:EstimatephysicaldamageSocial Science:Estimate impacton socialsystemsPolicy:Actions thatcould reducelossesMitigation

Multihazards DemonstrationProject (MHDP) ShakeOut• A hypothetical M7.8 rupture ofSouthern San Andreas Fault Created by 300 scientists,engineers, operators, socialscientists from 50 agencies 1800 killed, 53,000 injuries 300,000 buildings damaged $213B loss, ½ from fire following• 2008 Golden Guardian exercise &ShakeOut public exercise involved5,000 emergency responders and 5.5million Californians• CA Earthquake Alliance takingregistrations now for ShakeOut 2010More info: www.shakeout.org

Multihazards DemonstrationProject (MHDP) ShakeOut“This is the best single effort in emergency preparedness in mynearly 20 years in the business. The Golden Guardian / GreatShake Out project did more to prepare our cities than allprevious efforts combined for many years past. I have neverhad so much participation and interest in disasterpreparedness. And it continues!” – Mike Martinez, Exec Dir,Office of Disaster Mgt, Los Angeles County“The robust complexity of the scenario allowed each individualjurisdiction to choose the activities that they needed toexercise. This resulted in thousands of activities beingexercised simultaneously to the point of stressing everyplanning assumption ever memorialized across a multitude ofdisciplines and at every level of governance.” - Chris Holbrook,2008 Golden Guardian Coordinator, CA Office of HomelandSecurity

Some stories-----------------------------------------------10/17/2008Monique MoralesFiscal AssistantCounty of San Bernardinomoralesmj@hss.sbcounty.govAfter a brief summary video shown to the employees by my office manager Ibegan to feel nervous. I was not prepared in any way. I went out got a kit wenthome and started to look for all the major utility turn off valves. I never eventhought about the shut off valves before. We are going to do various things atour office to prepare also. A employee has created a chart with all the items wewould need in the event of a earthquake as we get the item we will have itchecked off the list. I will have a backback in my car at home and at work withvarious important items. I am glad to be working with a organization that ispreparing all employees to get involved. I wish other offices around the areacould see how we are preparing and do the same.

Some stories-----------------------------------------------11/13/2008ALICE ALVAREZnanaa39@sbcglobal.netI am 69 years of age, I have always lived in So. California and I amterrified of earthquakes, I am even afraid to say the word or think aboutthe word. I have been like this all me life. I am afraid I will die of aheart attack, should I be alive for a really big one. I try to talk my self into being strong and accept what I can not control. That is easier saidthan done. I will read everything you put out there and I will try toremember what to do, none the less I am afraid. I have not been able tosleep well since I started hearing about this "shake out", you all remindme of my fears, I started getting upset but I realize again I need to facemy fears and learn of what I need to do to survive and help others thatare perhaps in more need than I. Thank you for listening to me.

Some stories-----------------------------------------------11/13/2008Kristine ScullinExecutive DirectorRim Family Servicesrimfamily@charterinternet.comWe had a very basic experience. We watched preparatory videos ( we especially liked the"Brick" video) at our 8:00am staff meeting to get us ready. We watched the countdown onthe Shakeout E-mail and then started our shakeout audio feed on our computers throughoutthe office. Everyone dove under their desks and held on. We had counseling clients in ouroffice that joined us in the drill with no prior knowledge of the event. We discovered that wehave MANY items we need to secure, bookcases and filing cabinets that we did not realizewould jeopardize staff until this exercise. We thought we were prepared and we havemodifications we need to make.We also have a ham radio base at our office with ECS trained staff. One of us left our powercord at home for our portable radio and one of our radios was not programed correctly. Wewill fix this and feel much better prepared. THANK YOU!!!! Kris

Some storiesGary Sturdivan, East Valley Water District via Anne Wein, USGSSturdivan met with suppliers and held his own conference withother water districts. He had a ShakeOut stream of talks. Thenext day, they all got together to talk about mutual aid, who hassupplies & who doesn’t, what to do about chemicals because ofloss of train transport of chemicals. They talked aboutstretching the chemicals. They are now preparing to shelteremployees’ families in place in East Valley’s facilities. They aretrying to coordinate mutual aid for the first time. Their big pieceof the business interruption pie was a big motivator.

Some storiesCity of Palm Springs Recovery Workshop via Anne Wein USGSCity of Palm Springs procurement realized they got all theirsupplies from San Bernardino (repair parts, etc.), which wouldprobably be worse off. They realized they need a moregeographically dispersed supply chain.

Informal review of thestories40% mentioned taking concrete action to enhancepreparedness:• New or enhanced plans & materials, CPR classes,moving supplies to more accessible location, updatingcontact lists…10% mentioned mitigation work• Typically securing furnishings, fixtures, and equipment

ARkStorm Scenario

1861-1862 Floods12/1861: major NorCal flood (incl. Sacramento)1/1862: continued flood in NorCal1/1862: major SoCal flood (incl. LA, Orange Cou)12 days between flood crest in Sacramento & LASo a NorCal+SoCal extreme storm is plausibleEmergency managers advised WSS to coverboth SoCal & NorCalIn key respects, the 1862 flooding is anhistorical analogue to the 1906 earthquake.K St, Sacramento, looking east1861-1862

Severe California weatherCAT 4 is > 40cm (~16inches) in 3daysOF MORE THAN 40 cm (~16 inches)Marty Ralph (NOAA)& Mike Dettinger (USGS)

Relationship of ARs andFloodingAtmosphericriverDettinger, Extr PrecipSympos, 2004

Building a winter stormscenarioPOLICYSocial SciencesEngineeringSocialImpactsCasualtiesLifelinesStructuresEconomicImpactsEmergencyresponseFloodManagementInfrastructureForecastingEarth ScienceFloods, Coastal Erosion,Landslides, EnvironmentalThe StormDale Cox

ARkStorm Scenario: awinter storm like 1861-62• Compounded of 2 atmospheric-river (AR)storms: 19-26 Jan 1969 (SoCal) + 12-20 Feb1986 (NorCal), recurring over 3 weeks in 2011.• SoCal event augmented by assuming the ARcould plausibly have stalled for one extra day• Meteorology by USGS, NOAA, Scripps Met.Inst., additional information from NCAR• Geotechnical engineering by CGS, USACE, CACoastal Commission, State DWR• Physical damages by University of Colorado,utility engineers & operators, structuralengineers, …• Emergency response by CalEMAOutreach by Art Center College of DesignMarty Ralph, Mimi Hughes

Likely scenario findingsMeteorological outputs• Peak gusts > 110 mph• Severe widespread riverine flooding & coastal erosion• LandslidesPhysical damages• Flood-control failure, serious disruption of water supply to SoCal• Extensive building damage from flood, wind, & landslide, perhaps >$20B• Landslide damage to roads & highways, scour to auto & rail bridges >$1B• Numerous local power failures lasting up to several days or more• Damage to ports, waterways, piers, & various seaside infrastructurePerhaps $20-$200B loss• Direct damage, BI, environmental, historic, and life safety impacts• Geographic loss information• Insurance impacts & demand surge by Willis Re & WRNTreatment of mitigation options, research needs, & climate change

Progress to date• Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) numerical weatherprediction model was used.• Initial and boundary conditions were provided by the NCEP-NCARGlobal Reanalysis.• To achieve the desired inputs for runoff and other models, theWRF model simulation system included downscaling to a 6 kmgrid over most of CA, and down to 2 km is selected areas.• Statewide inventory “cracked” from HAZUS-MHSimulations are in progress, and results are encouraging.

Conclusions and nextsteps•Finalize meteorological inputs 3Q 2009•Flood impacts 3Q 2009•Physical damages assessment 3-4Q 2009•Emergency response & economic impactsassessed 1-2Q 2010ARkStorm public exercise and GoldenGuardian exercise 2011

AcknowledgmentsLucile Jones, USGS, MHDP Chief ScientistDale Cox, USGS, MHDP Project ManagerMike Dettinger, USGS, Co-lead, ARkStorm Atmospherics TeamMarty Ralph, NOAA, Co-lead, ARkStorm Atmospherics TeamMimi Hughes, NOAAJames Done, NCAR, WRNArt Center College of Design

Questions?