Vulnerabilities of Social Structures - The Black Vault

Many interdependent problems of social theory, data, and method remain unsolvedor, ;n some instances, only partially stated. Thus, the present knowledge in thesocial sciences does not permit a full statement or exp'oration of possible interrelationsamong the orders of possible post-attack phenomena which would benecessarily included in separate groups of predictions about post-attack life.The events attending a large thermonuclear bombardment form onedomain of uncertainties; the unresolved problems in describing and predictingevents in complex social systems form another domain of uncertainties. Whencombined, these domains form an ev -er domain of uncertainties, and themeaning of this domain becomes an imrnj preoccupation for the analyst ofthermonuclear attack."ItPanic". as an liustrative Case. Consider the example provided bystudies of panic in disasters. Responsible officials as well as the lay public havefrequently believed that a sudden disaster affecting a large group will typicallytrigger a wild stampede of hysterical individuals who will seek any escape at sny2expense to others. Analyses of cases of mass panic and related forms of collectiveoutburst show, however, that panic is not an automatic reaction tc asudden real or imagined danger but that particular conditions, arranged in3particular sequence, are associated with the panic outburst. Several conditioascontribute to a classic situation of panic. 4 Prior to the immediate cause of thepanic behavior, the group likely to panic will have been rendered susceptible to2 Enrico L. Quarantelli, "Images of Withdrawal Behavior in Disasters:Some Basic Misconceptions", Social Problems, VIII, 1 (SumMer. 1960), pp.68-79.3 Ibid. See also Errico L. Quarantelli, "The Nature and Conditions ofPanic", American Journal of Sociology, LX, 3 (t'Iovember, 1954), pp. 267-275, andNeil J. Smelser, Theory of Collective Behavior (New York: The Free Press otGlencoe, 1963), esp. Ch. VI, "The Panic", pp. 131-169. See Smelser's discussionof the conditions attending panic in Chapter II, below.3, above.4 This discussion derives primarily from the sources cited in Footnote6