Feasibility Study into secondary education in the broader

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BeaumarisBlack RockCheltenhamHamptonHampton EastHighettMentoneSandringhamTotalFeasibility Study ContextDemographic DataPopulationOver the last ten years,population growth in theSandringham catchmentarea has been lowerthan the Melbourne andState averages.This section of the study draws upon demographic data from a number ofsources, namely: Spatial Vision – Demographic Study Sandringham College;Australian Bureau of Statistics – Census Data;City of Bayside – forecast id;Kingston City Council – forecast id; andDepartment of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD)The following section represents data which is purely statistical in natureand has been gleaned specifically from the Demographic Study:Sandringham College prepared by Spatial Vision in December of 2012(based on data sets from the 2011 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS),Department of Planning and Community Development (DPCD), andDEECD) and data provided directly by the Department of Education andEarly Childhood Development.HistoricalVictorian population growth in the ten years from 2001 to 2011 hasincreased by 8.5%, with Melbourne’s population increasing by 9.7% 2Population growth in the Sandringham catchment area 3 over this ten yearperiod shows a total increase of 7.2% (3,957 people). Table 3 belowshows the actual numbers by suburb and the five and ten year percentageincreases 4 .Table 3: Data Source Demographic Study: Sandringham College, Spatial Vision,September 2012Total Population200120062011Growth2001 to 2006Growth2001 - 201112,260 5,599 3,555 8,015 4,389 7,192 5,389 8,295 54,69412,432 5,786 3,662 8,203 4,466 7,235 5,512 8,687 55,98312,790 6,051 3,717 8,537 4,788 7,796 5,700 9,272 58,6511.4% 3.3% 3.0% 2.3% 1.8% 0.6% 2.3% 4.7% 2.4%4.3% 8.1% 4.6% 6.5% 9.1% 8.4% 5.8% 11.8% 7.2%The 2016 forecast population for the Sandringham catchment area ispredicted to be much the same as the 2011 (58,621). In 2021 it isanticipated to have risen by 5.69% (61,956) and at 2026 it is expected tohave risen by 7.6% over the base year 5 (63,086).2 http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/data?opendocument&navpos=2003 Sandringham area is defined as Beaumaris, Black Rock, Cheltenham, Hampton, HamptonEast, Highett, Mentone and Sandringham.4 P24 Demographic Study: Sandringham College, Spatial Vision, September 20125 Base year of 2011Page 10 of 22
BeaumarisBlack RockCheltenhamHamptonHampton EastHighettMentoneSandringhamTotalFeasibility Study ContextIn 2011, the primary and secondary school age children representapproximately 19% of this total population 6 . Unfortunately, ABS data byage cohort does not align neatly with the primary and secondary schoolage break points of 5 – 12 for primary school and 12 – 18 for secondary.Using the two age cohorts of 5 – 14 and 15 – 19 as proxies for school agechildren, Table 4 below shows there are 11,157 school age children in thebroader Sandringham catchment area.Table 4: Data Source Demographic Study: Sandringham College, Spatial Vision,September 2012Population Cohort 20110-4 year olds 676 309 232 556 375 641 239 600 3,6285-14 year olds 1,834 770 396 1,333 562 969 558 1,245 7,66715-19 year olds 909 334 221 524 240 384 339 539 3,490Total School Age (5 – 19) 2,743 1,140 617 1,857 802 1,353 897 1,784 11,157Total School Age (5-19) asa % of Total Population21.4% 18.2% 16.6% 21.8% 16.8% 17.4% 15.7% 19.3% 19.0%The largest proportion of these children 2,713 (25%) live in the suburb ofBeaumaris as shown in Figure 2 below.6 ABS data as presented by Spatial Vision (school age population divided by total catchmentpopulation)Page 11 of 22
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