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energy[r]evolutionA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKEUROPEAN RENEWABLEENERGY COUNCILreport 4th edition 2012 world energy scenario

“will we look into the eyesof our children and confessthat we had the opportunity,but lacked the courage?that we had the technology,but lacked the vision?”partnersGreenpeace International,European RenewableEnergy Council (EREC),Global Wind Energy Council(GWEC)date July 2012isbn 978-90-73361-92-8project manager& lead author Sven Teske,Greenpeace InternationalEREC Josche MuthGreenpeace InternationalSven TeskeGWEC Steve Sawyerresearch & co-authorsOverall modelling: DLR, Instituteof Technical Thermodynamics,Department of Systems Analysis andTechnology Assessment, Stuttgart,Germany: Dr. Thomas Pregger,Dr. Sonja Simon, Dr. Tobias Naegler,Marlene O’Sullivanimage A WOMAN CARRIES HER DAUGHTER AS SHE WALKS THROUGH A FLOODED STREET NEAR BANGPA-IN INDUSTRIAL PARK IN AYUTTHAYA, THAILAND. OVER SEVEN MAJORINDUSTRIAL PARKS IN BANGKOK AND THOUSANDS OF FACTORIES HAVE BEEN CLOSED IN THE CENTRAL THAI PROVINCE OF AYUTTHAYA AND NONTHABURI WITH MILLIONS OFTONNES OF RICE DAMAGED. THAILAND IS EXPERIENCING THE WORST FLOODING IN OVER 50 YEARS WHICH HAS AFFECTED MORE THAN NINE MILLION PEOPLE.2

© ATHIT PERAWONGMETHA/GREENPEACETransport: DLR, Institute of VehicleConcepts, Stuttgart, Germany:Dr. Stephan Schmid, JohannesPagenkopf, Benjamin FrieskeEfficiency: Utrecht University,The Netherlands: Wina Graus,Katerina KermeliFossil Fuel Resource Assessment:Ludwig-Bölkow Systemtechnik,Munich, Germany; Dr. Werner ZittelEmployment: Institute forSustainable Futures, University ofTechnology, Sydney: Jay Rutovitzand Steve HarrisGrid and rural electrificationtechnology: energynautics GmbH,Langen/Germany; Dr. ThomasAckermann, Rena Ruwahata,Nils Martenseneditor Alexandra Dawe,Rebecca Short, Crispin Aubrey(basic document).design & layout onehemisphere,Sweden, www.onehemisphere.secontactssven.teske@greenpeace.orgerec@erec.orgRevised version of 21st June 2012,with new foreword, new maps,REN 21 Renewable energy marketanalysis 2011 and edits.for further information about the global, regional and national scenarios please visit the Energy [R]evolution website: www.energyblueprint.info/Published by Greenpeace International, EREC and GWEC. (GPI reference number JN 330). Printed on 100% post consumer recycled chlorine-free paper.3

forewordThe Global Energy[R]evolution seriespresents us with acompelling vision of anenergy future for asustainable world. Thescenarios proposed bythe Energy [R]evolutionhave gained a reputationfor the insight andexplanations theyprovide decision makers.This fourth editioncarries on this tradition,by outlining an updatedand well-articulatedpathway to achieve thetransition to a globalsustainable energyfuture. The InternationalRenewable Energy Agency(IRENA) welcomes therecognition of the centralrole that renewableenergy will play in thisnew energy paradigm.contentsat a glanceforeword 4introduction 12executive summary 1412climate & energy policy 19the energy[r]evolution concept 2634implementing theenergy [r]evolution 48scenarios for a futureenergy supply 54image LA DEHESA 50 MW PARABOLIC SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT. A WATER RESERVOIR AT LA DEHESA SOLAR POWER PLANT. LA DEHESA, 50 MW PARABOLIC THROUGHSOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT WITH MOLTEN SALTS STORAGE. COMPLETED IN FEBRUARY 2011, IT IS LOCATED IN LA GAROVILLA AND IT IS OWNED BY RENOVABLES SAMCA.WITH AN ANNUAL PRODUCTION OF 160 MILLION KWH, LA DEHESA WILL BE ABLE TO COVER THE ELECTRICITY NEEDS OF MORE THAN 45,000 HOMES, PREVENTING THE EMISSION4OF 160,000 TONNES OF CARBON. THE 220 H PLANT HAS 225,792 MIRRORS ARRANGED IN ROWS AND 672 SOLAR COLLECTORS WHICH OCCUPY A TOTAL LENGTH OF 100KM. BADAJOZ.

Achieving this transition relies on addressing key energy issues suchas access to modern energy services, security of supply and thesustainability of the energy mix. Environmental degradation,increasing energy demand, and unsustainable resource use arecritical challenges that must be addressed. Renewable energy willplay an essential role in advancing sustainable development byimproving the access of millions to energy, whilst helping ensureenergy security, and mitigating the existential risk of climate changeby reducing emissions.The benefits associated with renewable energy are influencing howcountries meet their energy needs, the increase in policies andinvestment globally attests to this. This growth in the uptake ofrenewable energy - the “Silent Revolution” - is playing out across theglobe: over the last decade 430,000 MW of renewable energycapacity has been installed, with global total investment reaching arecord $ 257 billion in 2011, a year in which renewable energybecame a trillion dollar industry, and the cost of modern renewableenergy technologies continued to fall.Accelerating the “Silent Revolution” globally requires greaterlevels of commitment and cooperation to develop enabling policy,combined with practical business solutions. To enable this, policymakers, scientists and businesses require access to up-to-date,relevant and reliable data. Scenarios are a helpful aid for decisionmaking, by mapping out the complex issues and information thatmust be considered. Through its investigation of issues surroundingthe future of energy, the Global Energy [R]evolution 2012 makesan invaluable contribution to informing global decisions-makers.The Global Energy [R]evolution publication provides an importantcomplement to IRENA’s efforts to provide knowledge and know-how,and to facilitate the flow of information encouraging the deploymentof renewables. Therefore, it is with pleasure that IRENA welcomesthis fourth edition of the Global Energy [R]evolution scenario, andthe contribution the European Renewable Energy Council andGreenpeace have made to the vital debate on transitioning the worldto a more secure and sustainable energy future.Adnan Z. AminDIRECTOR-GENERALINTERNATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY AGENCYJULY 2012© MARKEL REDONDO/GREENPEACE56key results energy[r]evolution scenario 74employmentprojections 18878the silent revolution– past & currentmarket developments 198energy resources andsecurity of supply 208910energy technologies 231energy efficiency -more with less 2601112transport 275glossary & appendix 2915

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKcontentsforeword 4introduction 12executive summary 14123climate and energy policy 191.1 the UNFCCC and the kyoto protocol 201.2 international energy policy 201.3 renewable energy targets1.4 policy changes in the energy sector 211.4.1 the most effective way to implementthe energy [r]evolution: feed-in laws 211.4.2 bankable renewable energy support schemes 231.5 ftsm: special feed in law proposalfor developing countries 241.5.1 the feed-in tariff support mechanicsm 24the energy [r]evolution concept 262.1 key principles 272.2 the “3 step implementation” 282.3 the new electricity grid 322.3.1 hybrid systems 332.3.2 smart grids 342.3.3 the super grid 362.3.4 baseload blocks progress 362.4 case study: a year after the germannuclear phase out 392.4.1 target and method 392.4.2 carbon dioxide emissions trends 392.4.3 shortfall from first round of closures 392.4.4 the renewable energy sector in germany 392.5 case study: providing smart energy toBihar from the “bottom-up” 422.5.1 methodology 422.5.2 implementation 442.5.3 lessons from the study 442.6 greenpeace proposal to support arenewable energy cluster 452.6.1 a rural feed-in tariff for bihar 462.7 energy [r]evolution cluster jobs 46implementing the energy [r]evolution 483.1 renewable energy project planning basics 503.2 renewable energy financing basics 503.2.1 overcoming barriers to finance and investmentfor renewable energy 523.2.2 how to overcome investment barriersfor renewable energy 5345scenarios for a future energy supply 544.1 scenario background 574.1.1 energy efficiency study for industry,households and services 574.1.2 the future for transport 574.1.3 fossil fuel assessment report 574.1.4 status and future projections for renewableheating technologies 574.2 main scenario assumptions 584.3 population development 594.4 economic growth 594.5 oil and gas price projections 604.6 cost of CO2 emissions 614.7 cost projections for efficient fossil fuel generationand carbon capture and storage (CCS) 614.8 cost projections for renewableenergy technologies 624.8.1 photovoltaics (pv) 634.8.2 concentrating solar power (csp) 634.8.3 wind power 644.8.4 biomass 644.8.5 geothermal 654.8.6 ocean energy 654.8.7 hydro power 664.8.8 summary of renewable energy cost development 664.9 cost projections for renewableheating technologies 674.9.1 solar thermal technologies 674.9.2 deep geothermal applications 674.9.3 heat pumps 674.9.3 biomass applications 674.10 assumptions for fossil fuel phase out 684.10.1 oil - production decline assumptions 684.10.2 coal - production decline assumptions 684.11 review: greenpeace scenarioprojections of the past 694.11.1 the development of the global wind industry 694.11.2 the development of the globalsolar photovoltaic industry 714.12 how does the energy [r]evolution scenariocompare to other scenarios 73key results of energy [r]evolution scenario 74global scenario 75oecd north america 88latin america 98oecd europe 108africa 118middle east 128eastern europe/eurasia 138india 148non oecd asia 158china 168oecd asia oceania 1786

image A WOMAN IN FRONT OF HER FLOODEDHOUSE IN SATJELLIA ISLAND. DUE TO THEREMOTENESS OF THE SUNDARBANS ISLANDS,SOLAR PANELS ARE USED BY MANY VILLAGERS.AS A HIGH TIDE INVADES THE ISLAND, PEOPLEREMAIN ISOLATED SURROUNDED BY THE FLOODS.© GP/PETER CATON6789employment projections 1886.1 methodology and assumptions 1896.2 employment factors 1906.3 regional adjustments 1916.3.1 regional job multipliers 1916.3.2 local employment factors 1916.3.3 local manufacturing and fuel production 1916.3.4 learning adjustments or ‘decline factors’ 1916.4 fossil fuels and nuclear energy - employment,investment, and capacities 1936.4.1 employment in coal 1936.4.2 employment in gas, oil & diesel 1936.4.3 employment in nuclear energy 1936.5 employment in renewable energy technologies 1946.5.1 employment in wind energy 1946.5.2 employment in biomass 1946.5.3 employment in geothermal power 1956.5.1 employment in wave & tidal power 1956.5.2 employment in solar photovoltaics 1966.5.3 employment in solar thermal power 1966.6 employment in the renewable heating sector 1976.6.1 employment in solar heating 1976.6.2 employment in geothermal and heat pump heating 1976.6.2 employment in biomass heat 197the silent revolution – past and currentmarket developments 1987.1 power plant markets in the us, europe and china 2007.2 the global market shares in the power plantmarket: renewables gaining ground 202energy resources and security of supply 2088.1 oil 2108.1.1 the reserves chaoas 2108.1.2 non-conventional oil reserves 2118.2 gas 2118.2.1 shale gas 2118.3 coal 2118.4 nuclear 2208.5 renewable energy 2218.6 biomass in the 2012 energy [r]evolution 2288.6.1 how much biomass 229energy technologies 2319.1 fossil fuel technologies 2319.1.1 coal combustion technologies 2319.1.2 gas combustion technologies 2319.1.3 carbon reduction technologies 23110119.1.4 carbon dioxide storage 2329.1.5 carbon storage and climate change targets 2329.2 nuclear technologies 2349.2.1 nuclear reactor designs: evolution and safety issues 2349.3 renewable energy technologies 2359.3.1 solar power (photovoltaics) 2359.3.2 concentrating solar power (CSP) 2379.3.3 wind power 2399.3.4 biomass energy 2399.3.5 geothermal energy 2439.3.6 hydro power 2459.3.7 ocean energy 2489.3.8 renewable heating and cooling technologies 2519.3.9 geothermal, hydrothermal and aerothermal energy 2549.3.10 biomass heating technologies 2579.3.11 storage technologies 258energy efficiency - more with less 26010.1 methodology for the energy demand projections 26110.2 efficiency in industry 26310.2.1 energy demand reference scenario: industry 26310.3 low energy demand scenario: industry 26410.4 results for industry: efficiency pathway forthe energy [r]evolution 26510.5 buildings and agriculture 26611.5.1 energy demand reference scenario:buildings and agriculture 26611.5.2 fuel and heat use 26711.5.3 electricity use 26810.6 the standard household concept 27010.7 low energy demand scenario:buildings and agriculture 27210.8 results for building and agriculture:the efficiency pathway for the energy [r]evolution 272transport 27511.1 the future of the transport sector in the energy[r]evolution scenario 27611.2 technical and behavioural measures toreduce transport energy consumption 27811.2.1 step 1: reduction of transport demand 27811.2.2 step 2: changes in transport mode 27911.2.3 step 3: efficiency improvements 28211.3 projection of the future LDV market 28811.3.1 projection of the future technology mix 28811.3.2 projection of the future vehicle segment split 28811.3.3 projection of the future switch to alternative fuels 28911.3.4 projection of the future global vehicle stock develoment 28911.3.5 projection of the future kilometres driven per year 29011.4 conclusion 29012 glossary & appendix 29112.1 glossary of commonly used terms and abbreviations 29212.2 definition of sectors 292scenario results data 2937

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKlist of figures1figure 1.1 ftsm scheme 252figure 2.1 centralised generation systems waste more thantwo thirds of their original energy input 28figure 2.2 a decentralised energy future 29figure 2.3 the smart-grid vision for the energy [r]evolution 35figure 2.4 a typical load curve throughout europe, showselectricity use peaking and falling on a daily basis 37figure 2.5 the evolving approach to grids 37figure 2.6 renewable energy sources as a share ofenergy supply in germany 40figure 2.7 renewable energy sources in total final energyconsumption in germany 2011/2010 40figure 2.8 phase out of nuclear energy 41figure 2.9 electricity imports/exports germany 41figure 2.10 development of household demand 42figure 2.11 process overview of supply system design byproduction optimitsation 43figure 2.12 screenshot of PowerFactory grid model 433figure 3.1 return characteristics of renewable energies 50figure 3.2 overview risk factors for renewable energy projects 51figure 3.3 investment stages of renewable energy projects 51figure 3.4 key barriers to renewable energy investment 534figure 4.1 world regions used in the scenarios 58figure 4.2 future development of investment costs forrenewable energy technologies 66figure 4.3 expected development of electricity generationcosts from fossil fuel and renewable options 66figure 4.4 global oil production 1950 to 2011 andprojection till 2050 68figure 4.5 coal scenario: base decline of 2% per yearand new projects 68figure 4.6 wind power: short term prognosis vs real marketdevelopment - global cummulative capacity 69figure 4.7 wind power: long term market projects until 2030 70figure 4.8 photovoltaic: short term prognosis vs real marketdevelopment - global cummulative capacity 71figure 4.9 photovoltaic: long term market projects until 2030 725figure 5.1figure 5.2figure 5.3figure 5.4figure 5.5figure 5.6figure 5.7figure 5.88global: final energy intensity under referencescenario and the energy energy [r]evolution scenario 75global: total final energy demand under the referencescenario and the energy energy [r]evolution scenario 76global: development of electricity demand by sectorin the energy [r]evolution scenario 77global: development of the transport demand bysector in the energy [r]evolution scenario 77global: development of heat demand by sector inthe energy [r]evolution scenario 77global: electricity generation structure underthe reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario 78global: total electricity supply costs & specificelectricity generation costs under two scenarios 79global: investment shares - reference scenarioversus energy [r]evolution scenario 80figure 5.9 global: change in cumulative power plant investment 80figure 5.10 global: heat supply structure under the referencescenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario 81figure 5.11 global: investments for renewable heat generationtechnologies under the reference scenario and theenergy [r]evolution scenario 82figure 5.12a global: employment in the energy scenariounder the reference scenario and theenergy [r]evolution scenarios 82figure 5.12b global: proportion of fossil fuel and renewableemployment at 2010 and 2030 84figure 5.13 global: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario 85figure 5.14 global: primary energy consumption underthe reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario 86figure 5.15 global: regional breakdown of CO2 emissions inthe energy [r]evolution in 2050 87figure 5.16 global: development of CO2 emissions by sectorunder the energy [r]evolution scenarios 87figure 5.17 global: CO2 emissions by sector in theenergy [r]evolution in 2050 87figures 5.18-5.30 north america 88figures 5.31-5.43 latin america 98figures 5.44-5.56 oecd europe 108figures 5.57-5.69 africa 118figures 5.70-5.82 middle east 128figures 5.83-5.96 eastern europe/eurasia 138figures 5.96-5.108 india 148figures 5.109-5.121 non oecd asia 158figures 5.122-5.134 china 168figures 5.135-5.147 oecd asia oceania 1786figure 6.1proportion of fossil fuel and renewableemployment at 2010 and 2030 1927figure 7.1 global power plant market 1970-2010 199figure 7.2 global power plant market 1970-2010, excl china 200figure 7.3 usa: annual power plant market 1970-2010 200figure 7.4 europe (eu 27): annual power plant market1970-2010 201figure 7.5 china: annual power plant market 1970-2010 201figure 7.6 power plant market shares 1970-2010 203figure 7.7 historic developments of the globalpower plant market, by technology 204figure 7.8 global power plant market in 2011 207figure 7.9 global power plant market by region 2078figure 8.1ranges of global technical potentials of renewableenergy sources 2269figure 9.1 example of the photovoltaic effect 235figure 9.2 photovoltaic technology 235figure 9.3 csp technologies: parabolic trough, centralreceiver/solar tower and parabolic dish 238figure 9.4 early wind turbine designs, including horizontaland vertical axis turbines 239

image NORTH HOYLE WIND FARM,UK’S FIRST WIND FARM IN THE IRISH SEA WHICHWILL SUPPLY 50,000 HOMES WITH POWER.© ANTHONY UPTON 2003figure 9.5 basic components of a modern horizontal axiswind turbine with a gear box 240figure 9.6 growth in size of typical commercial wind turbines 240figure 9.7 biogas technology 242figure 9.8 geothermal energy 243figure 9.9 schematic diagram of a geothermal condensingsteam power plant and a binary cycle power plant 244figure 9.10 scheme showing conductive EGS resources 245figure 9.11 run-of-river hydropower plant 246figure 9.12 typical hydropower plant with resevoir 246figure 9.13 typical pumped storage project 247figure 9.14 typical in-stream hydropower project usingexisting facilities 247figure 9.15 wave energy technologies: classification basedon principles of operation 248figure 9.16 oscillating water columns 249figure 9.17 oscillating body systems 249figure 9.18 overtopping devices 249figure 9.19 classification of current tidal and ocean energytechnologies (principles of operation) 250figure 9.20 twin turbine horizontal axis device 250figure 9.21 cross flow device 250figure 9.22 vertical axis device 251figure 9.23 natural flow systems vs. forced circulation systems 252figure 9.24 examples for heat pump systems 255figure 9.25 overview storage capacity of different energystorage systems 259figure 9.26 renewable (power) (to) methane - renewable gas 25910figure 10.1 final energy demand (PJ) in reference scenarioper sector worldwide 261figure 10.2 final energy demand (PJ) in reference scenarioper region 262figure 10.3 final energy demand per capita inreference scenario 262figure 10.4 final energy demand for the world by sub sectorand fuel source in 2009 262figure 10.5 projection of industrial energy demandin period 2009-2050 per region 263figure 10.6 share of industry in total final energy demandper region in 2009 and 2050 263figure 10.7 breakdown of final energy consumption in 2009by sub sector for industry 263figure 10.8 global final energy use in the period 2009-2050in industry 265figure 10.9 final energy use in sector industries 265figure 10.10 fuel/heat use in sector industries 265figure 10.11 electricity use in sector industries 265figure 10.12 breakdown of energy demand in buildings andagriculture in 2009 266figure 10.13 energy demand in buildings and agriculture inreference scenario per region 266figure 10.14 share electricity and fuel consumption bybuildings and agriculture in total final energydemand in 2009 and 2050 in the reference scenario 266figure 10.15 breakdown of final energy demand in buildings in2009 for electricity and fuels/heat in ‘others’ 267figure 10.16 breakdown of fuel and heat use in ‘others’ in 2009 267figure 10.17 elements of new building design that cansubstantially reduce energy use 268figure 10.18 breakdown of electricity use by sub sectorin sector ‘others’ in 2009 269figure 10.19 efficiency in households - electricity demandper capita 270figure 10.20 electricity savings in households (E[R] vs. Ref)in 2050 271figure 10.21 breakdown of energy savings in BLUE Mapscenario for sector ‘others’ 272figure 10.22 global final energy use in the period 2009-2050in sector ‘others’ 274figure 10.23 final energy use i sector ‘others’ 274figure 10.24 fuel/heat use in sector ‘others’ 274figure 10.25 electricity use in sector ‘others’ 27411figure 11.1 world final energy use per transport mode2009/2050 - reference scenario 277figure 11.2 world transport final energy use by region2009/2050 - reference scenario 277figure 11.3 world average (stock-weighted) passengertransport energy intensity for 2009 and 2050 279figure 11.4 aviation passenger-km in the reference andenergy [r]evolution scenarios 280figure 11.5 rail passenger-km in the reference andenergy [r]evolution scenarios 280figure 11.6 passenger-km over time in the reference scenario 280figure 11.7 passenger-km over time in the energy[r]evolution scenario 280figure 11.8 world average (stock-weighted) freight transportenergy intensities for 2005 and 2050 281figure 11.9 tonne-km over time in the reference scenario 281figure 11.10 tonne-km over time in the energy[r]evolution scenario 281figure 11.11 energy intensities (Mj/p-km) for air transportin the energy [r]evolution scenario 282figure 11.12 fuel share of electric and diesel rail traction forpassenger transport 283figure 11.13 fuel share of electric and diesel rail traction forfreight transport 283figure 11.14 energy intensities for passenger rail transportin the energy [r]evolution scenario 284figure 11.15 energy intensities for freight rail transportin the energy [r]evolution scenario 284figure 11.16 HDV operating fully electrically under a catenary 284figure 11.17 fuel share of medium duty vehicles (global average)by transport performance (ton-km) 285figure 11.18 fuel share of heavy duty vehicles (global average)by transport performance (ton-km) 285figure 11.19 specific energy consumption of HDV and MDV inlitres of gasoline equivalent per 100 tkm in 2050 285figure 11.20 energy intensities for freight rail transport inthe energy [r]evolution scenario 287figure 11.21 LDV occupancy rates in 2009 and in theenergy [r]evolution 2050 287figure 11.22 sales share of conventional ICE, autonomoushybrid and grid-connectable vehicles in 2050 288figure 11.23 vehicle sales by segment in 2009 and 2050 in theenergy [r]evolution scenario 288figure 11.24 fuel split in vehicle sales for 2050 energy[r]evolution by world region 289figure 11.25 development of the global LDV stockunder the reference scenario 289figure 11.26 development of the global LDV stockunder the energy [r]evolution scenario 289figure 11.26 average annual LDV kilometres driven perworld region 2909

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKlist of tables2table 2.1 power plant value chain 30table 2.2 german government short, medium andlong term binding targets 41table 2.3 key results for energy [r]evolution village cluster 45table 2.4 village cluster demand overview 473table 3.1table 3.24how does the current renewable energy marketwork in practice? 49categorisation of barriers to renewableenergy investment 52table 4.1 assumed average growth rates and annualmarket volumes by renwable technologies 65table 4.2 population development projections 59table 4.3 gdp development projections 60table 4.4 development projections for fossil fuel andbiomass prices in $ 2010 60table 4.5 assumptions on CO2 emissions cost developmentfor Annex-B and Non-Annex-B countriesof the UNFCCC 61table 4.6 development of efficiency and investment costsfor selected new power plant technologies 61table 4.7 photovoltaics (pv) cost assumptions 63table 4.8 concentrating solar power (csp) cost assumptions 63table 4.9 wind power cost assumptions 64table 4.10 biomass cost assumptions 64table 4.11 geothermal cost assumptions 65table 4.12 ocean energy cost assumptions 65table 4.13 hydro power cost assumptions 66table 4.14 overview over expected investment costs forpathways for heating technologies 67table 4.15 overview of key parameter of the illustrativescenarios based on assumptions that are exogenousto the models respective endogenous model results 735table 5.1 global: renewable electricity generation capacityunder the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario 78table 5.2 global: investment costs for electricity generationand fuel cost savings under the energy [r]evolutionscenario compared to the reference scenario 80table 5.3 global: renewable heating capacities underthe reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario 81table 5.4 global: renewable heat generation capacitiesunder the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario 82table 5.5 global: total employment in the energy sector 84table 5.6 global: transport energy demand by modeunder the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario 85tables 5.7-5.12 north america 90figures 5.13-5.18 latin america 100figures 5.19-5.24 oecd europe 110figures 5.25-5.30 africa 120figures 5.31-5.36 middle east 130figures 5.37-5.42 eastern europe/eurasia 140figures 5.43-5.48 india 150figures 5.49-5.54 non oecd asia 160figures 5.55-5.60 china 170figures 5.61-5.66 oecd asia oceania 1806table 6.1 methodology overview 189table 6.2 summary of employment factors used in globalanalysis in 2012 190table 6.3 employment factors used for coal fuel supply 191table 6.4 regional multipliers 191table 6.5 total global employment 192table 6.6 fossil fuels and nuclear energy: capacity,investment and direct jobs 193table 6.7 wind energy: capacity, investment anddirect jobs 194table 6.8 biomass: capacity, investment and direct jobs 194table 6.9 geothermal power: capacity, investment anddirect jobs 195table 6.10 wave and tidal power: capacity, investmentand direct jobs 195table 6.11 solar photovoltaics: capacity, investment anddirect jobs 196table 6.12 solar thermal power: capacity, investmentand direct jobs 196table 6.13 solar heating: capacity, investmentand direct jobs 197table 6.14 geothermal and heat pump heating: capacity,investment and direct jobs 197table 6.15 biomass heat: direct jobs in fuel supply 1977table 7.1 overview global renewable energy market 2011 2078table 8.1 global occurances of fossil and nuclear sources 209table 8.2 overview of the resulting emissions if all fossilfuel resources were burned 210table 8.3 assumption on fossil fuel use in theenergy [r]evolution scenario 220table 8.4 renwable energy theoretical potential 22110

image A YOUNG INDIGENOUS NENET BOY PRACTICESWITH HIS REINDEER LASSO ROPE. THE INDIGENOUSNENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THATTHEIR REINDEER DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUNDAND THEY DO NOT OVER FISH THE LAKES. THE YAMALPENINSULA IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBALWARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIASANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.© GP/WILL ROSElist of maps9table 9.110table 10.1table 10.2table 10.3table 10.4table 10.5table 10.6table 10.7typical type and size of applications permarket segment 236reduction of energy use in comparison to thereference scenario per sector in 2050 264share of technical potentials implemented inthe energy [r]evolution scenario 264reference and best practice electricity useby ‘wet appliances’ 269effect on number of global operating power plantsof introducing strict energy efficiency standardsbased on currently available technology 271annual reduction of energy demand in ‘others’ sectorin energy [r]evolution scenario in comparison tothe corresponding reference scenario 272global final energy consumption for sector‘others’ (EJ) in 2030 and 2050 273global final energy consumption forsector ‘others’ (EJ) in 2030 and 2050in underlying baseline scenarios 2738map 8.1 oil reference scenario and theenergy [r]evolution scenario 212map 8.2 gas reference scenario and theenergy [r]evolution scenario 214map 8.3 coal reference scenario and theenergy [r]evolution scenario 216map 8.4 water demand for thermal power generation 218map 8.5 solar reference scenario and theenergy [r]evolution scenario 222map 8.6 wind reference scenario and theenergy [r]evolution scenario 224map 8.7 regional renewable energy potential 22711table 11.1 selection of measure and indicators 278table 11.2 LDV passenger-km per capita 278table 11.3 air traffic substitution potential of highspeed rail (HSR) 279table 11.4 modal shift of HDV tonne-km to freight railin 2050 281table 11.5 the world average energy intensities for MDVand HDV in 2009 and 2050 energy [r]evolution 285table 11.6 technical efficiency potential for worldpassenger transport 287table 11.7 technical efficiency potential for worldfreight transport 28712table 12.1 conversion factors – fossil fuels 292table 12.2 conversion factors – different energy units 292table 12.3-12.17 global scenario results 293table 12.18-12.32 latin america america scenario results 297table 12.33-12.47 oecd europe scenario results 301table 12.48-12.62 africa scenario results 305table 12.63-12.77 middle east scenario results 309table 12.78-12.92 eastern europe/eurasia scenario results 313table 12.93-12.107 india scenario results 317table 12.108-12.122 oecd north america scenario results 321table 12.123-12.137 non oecd asia scenario results 325table 12.138-12.152 china scenario results 329table 12.153-12.167 oecd asia oceania scenario results 33311

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKintroduction“FOR THE SAKE OF A SOUND ENVIRONMENT, POLITICAL STABILITY AND THRIVING ECONOMIES, NOW IS THE TIME TO COMMITTO A TRULY SECURE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE.”© SEAWIFS PROJECT, NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER, AND ORBIMAGEimage DUST IS SEEN BLOWING ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN AFRICA FROM ANGOLA TO SOUTH AFRICA.The world’s energy system has bestowed great benefits on society,but it has also come with high price tag: climate change, which isoccurring due to a build of carbon dioxide and other greenhousegases in the atmosphere caused by human activity; military andeconomic conflict due to uneven distribution of fossil resources;and millions of premature deaths and illness due to the air andwater pollution inherent in fossil fuel production and consumption.The largest proportion of global fossil fuel use is to generate power, forheating and lighting, and for transport. Business-as-usual growth offossil-fuels is fundamentally unsustainable. Climate change threatensall continents, coastal cities, food production and ecosystems. It willmean more natural disasters such as fire and floods, disruption ofagriculture and damage to property as sea levels rise.The pursuit of energy security, while remaining dependent on fossilfuel will lead to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and moreextreme climate impacts. Rising demand and rising prices drives thefossil fuel industry towards unconventional sources such as tar sands,shale gas and super-coal mines which destroy ecosystems and putwater supplies in danger. The inherent volatility of fossil fuel pricesputs more strain on an already stressed global economy.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,global mean temperatures are expected to increase over the nexthundred years by up to 6.4° C if no action is taken to reduce12greenhouse gas emissions. This is much faster than anythingexperienced in human history. As average temperature increasesapproach 2°C or more, damage to ecosystems and disruption to theclimate system increases dramatically, threatening millions of peoplewith increased risk of hunger, disease, flooding and water shortage.A certain amount of climate change is now “locked in”, based onthe amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases alreadyemitted into the atmosphere since industrialisation began. No oneknows how much warming is “safe” for life on the planet.However, what we know is that the effects of climate change arealready being felt by populations and ecosystems. We can alreadysee melting glaciers, disintegrating polar ice, thawing permafrost,dying coral reefs, rising sea levels, changing ecosystems and fatalheat waves that are made more severe by a changed climate.Japan’s major nuclear accident at Fukushima in March 2011following a tsunami came 25 years after the disastrous explosion inthe Chernobyl nuclear power plant in former Soviet Union, showingthat nuclear energy is an inherently unsafe source of power. TheFukushima disaster triggered a surge in global renewable energyand energy efficiency deals. At the same time, the poor state of theglobal economy has resulted in decreasing carbon prices, somegovernments reducing support for renewables, and a stagnation ofoverall investment, particularly in the OECD.

image WIND TURBINES AT THE NAN WIND FARM INNAN’AO. GUANGDONG PROVINCE HAS ONE OF THEBEST WIND RESOURCES IN CHINA AND IS ALREADYHOME TO SEVERAL INDUSTRIAL SCALE WIND FARMS.© GP/XUAN CANXIONGRising oil demand is putting pressure on supply causing prices torise which make possible increased exploration for “marginal andunconventional” oil resources, such as regions of the Arctic newlyaccessible due to retreating polar ice, and the environmentallydestructive tar sands project in Canada.For almost a decade it looked as if nothing could halt the growthof the renewable industries and their markets. The only way wasup. However the economic crisis in 2008/2009 and its continuingaftermath slowed growth and dampened demand. While therenewable industry is slowly recovering, increased competition,particularly in the solar PV and wind markets has driven downprices and shaved margins to the point where most manufacturersare struggling to survive. This is good news for the consumer,however, as the prices for solar PV fell more than 60% between2010 and 2012, and wind turbine prices have also decreasedsubstantially. This means that renewables are directly competitivewith heavily subsidized conventional generation in an increasingnumber of markets, but for the industry to meet its full potentialgovernments need to act to reduce the 600 billion USD/annum insubsidies to fossil fuels, and move ahead with pricing CO2 emissionsand other external costs of conventional generation.As renewables play an increasing role in the energy system, one can nolonger speak of ‘integration’ of renewables’ but ‘transformation’, movingaway from the reliance on a few large power plants, or single fuels to aflexible system based on a wide variety of renewable sources of supply,some of which are variable. Investments in new infrastructure, smartergrids, better storage technologies and a new energy policy which takesall these new technologies into account are required.the new energy [r]evolutionThe IPCC’s Special Report on Renewable Energy and ClimateChange (SRREN) chose the last Energy [R]evolution edition(published in 2010) as one of the four benchmark scenarios forclimate mitigation energy scenarios. The Energy [R]evolution wasthe most ambitious, combining an uptake of renewable energy andrigorous energy efficiency measures to put forward the highestrenewable energy share by 2050, although some other scenariosactually had higher total quantities of renewables. Following thepublication of the SRREN in May 2011 in Abu Dhabi, the Energy[R]evolution has been widely quoted in the scientific literature.The Energy [R]evolution 2012 takes into account the significantchanges in the global energy sector debate over the past two years. InJapan, the Fukushima Nuclear disaster following the devastatingtsunami triggered a faster phase-out of nuclear power in Germany, andraised the level of debate in many countries. The Deepwater Horizondisaster in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 highlighted the damage that canbe done to eco-systems and livelihoods, while oil companies started newoil exploration in ever-more sensitive environments such as the ArcticCircle. The Energy [R]evolution oil pathway is based on a detailedanalysis of the global conventional oil resources, the currentinfrastructure of those industries, the estimated production capacitiesof existing oil wells in the light of projected production decline ratesand the investment plans known by end 2011. To end our addiction tooil, financial resources must flow from 2012 onwards to developingnew and larger markets for renewable energy technologies and energyefficiency to avoid “locking in” new fossil fuel infrastructure.Rapid cost reductions in the renewable energy sector have made itpossible to increase their share in power generation, heating andcooling and the transport sector faster than in previous editions. Forthe first time, this report takes a closer look at required investmentcosts for renewable heating technologies. The employment calculationhas been expanded to the heating sector as well and the overallmethodology of the employment calculation has been improved.For the urgently needed access to energy for the almost 2 billionpeople who lack it at present, we have developed a new “bottomup” electrification concept in the North Indian state of Bihar (seechapter 2). New technology coupled with innovative finance mayresult in a new wave of rural electrification programs implementedby local people. A power plant market analysis of the past 40 yearshas been added to further develop the replacement strategy for oldpower plants. While the solar photovoltaic and wind installationhave been increased, the use of bio-energy has been reduced due toenvironmental concerns (see page 212). Concentrated solar powerstations and offshore wind remain cornerstones of the Energy[R]evolution, while we are aware that both technologies experienceincreasing difficulty raising finance than some other renewabletechnologies. Therefore we urge governments to introduce therequired policy frameworks to lower the risks for investors. Newstorage technologies need to move from R&D to marketimplementation; again this requires long term policy decisions.Without those new storage technologies, e.g. methane producedfrom renewables (see chapter 9), a transition towards more efficientelectric mobility will be more difficult.Last but not least, the automobile industry needs to movetowards smaller and lighter vehicles to bring down the energydemand and introduce new technologies. We urge carmanufactures to finally move forward and repeat the hugesuccesses of the renewable energy industry.This fourth edition of the Energy [R]evolution shows that with only1% of global GDP invested in renewable energy by 2050,12 million jobs would be created in the renewable sector alone; andthe fuel costs savings would cover the additional investment twotimes over. To conclude, there are no real technical or economicbarriers to implementing the Energy [R]evolution. It is the lack ofpolitical will that is to blame for the slow progress to date.Josche MuthPRESIDENTEUROPEAN RENEWABLEENERGY COUNCIL (EREC)Sven TeskeCLIMATE & ENERGY UNITGREENPEACE INTERNATIONALJUNE 2012Steve SawyerSECRETARY GENERALGLOBAL WIND ENERGYCOUNCIL (GWEC)13

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKexecutive summary“AT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION WILL BE A CHANGE IN THE WAY THAT ENERGY IS PRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED AND CONSUMED.”© MARKEL REDONDO/GREENPEACEimage GEMASOLAR, A 15 MWE SOLAR-ONLY POWER TOWER PLANT. IT’S 16-HOUR MOLTEN SALT STORAGE SYSTEM CAN DELIVER POWER AROUND THE CLOCK. IT RUNS THEEQUIVALENT OF 6,570 FULL HOURS OUT OF A 8,769 TOTAL. GEMASOLAR IS OWNED BY TORRESOL ENERGY AND HAS BEEN COMPLETED IN MAY 2011.The Energy [R]evolution Scenario has became a well known andwell respected energy analysis since it was first published forEurope in 2005. This is the fourth Global Energy [R]evolutionscenario; earlier editions were published in 2007, 2008 and 2010.The Energy [R]evolution 2012 provides a consistent fundamentalpathway for how to protect our climate: getting the world fromwhere we are now to where we need to be by phasing out fossilfuels and cutting CO2 emissions while ensuring energy security.The evolution of the scenarios has included a detailedemployment analysis in 2010, and now this edition expands theresearch further to incorporate new demand and transportprojections, new constraints for the oil and gas pathways andtechno-economic aspects of renewable heating systems. While the2010 edition had two scenarios – a basic and an advancedEnergy [R]evolution, this edition puts forward only one; based onthe previous ‘advanced’ case.the fossil fuel dilemmaRaising energy demand is putting pressure on fossil fuel supplyand now pushing oil exploration towards “unconventional” oilresources. Remote and sensitive environments such as the Arcticare under threat from increased drilling, while theenvironmentally destructive tar sands projects in Canada arebeing pursued to extract more marginal sources. However,scarcity of conventional oil is not the most pressing reason tophase-out fossil fuels: cutting back dramatically is essential tosave the climate of our planet. Switching from fossil fuels torenewables also offers substantial benefits such as independencefrom world market fossil fuel prices and the creation of millionsof new green jobs. It can also provide energy to the two billionpeople currently without access to energy services. The Energy[R]evolution 2012 took a closer look at the measures required tophase-out oil faster in order to save the Arctic from oilexploration, avoid dangerous deep sea drilling projects and toleave oil shale in the ground.14

image SOVARANI KOYAL LIVES IN SATJELLIA ISLAND AND IS ONE OF THE MANY PEOPLEAFFECTED BY SEA LEVEL RISE: “NOWADAYS, HEAVY FLOODS ARE GOING ON HERE. THE WATERLEVEL IS INCREASING AND THE TEMPERATURE TOO. WE CANNOT LIVE HERE, THE HEAT ISBECOMING UNBEARABLE. WE HAVE RECEIVED A PLASTIC SHEET AND HAVE COVERED OURHOME WITH IT. DURING THE COMING MONSOON WE SHALL WRAP OUR BODIES IN THE PLASTIC TOSTAY DRY. WE HAVE ONLY A FEW GOATS BUT WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THEY ARE. WE ALSOHAVE TWO CHILDREN AND WE CANNOT MANAGE TO FEED THEM.”© GP/PETER CATONclimate change threatsThe threat of climate change, caused by rising globaltemperatures, is the most significant environmental challengefacing the world at the beginning of the 21st century. It hasmajor implications for the world’s social and economic stability,its natural resources and in particular, the way we produceour energy.In order to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climatechange, the global temperature increase must be kept as farbelow 2°C as possible. This is still possible, but time is runningout. To stay within this limit, global greenhouse gas emissions willneed to peak by 2015 and decline rapidly after that, reaching asclose to zero as possible by the middle of the 21st century. Themain greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by usingfossil fuels for energy and transport. Keeping the globaltemperature increase to 2°C is often referred to as a ‘safe level’of warming, but this does not reflect the reality of the latestscience. This shows that a warming of 2°C above pre-industriallevels would pose unacceptable risks to many of the world’s keynatural and human systems. 1 Even with a 1.5°C warming,increases in drought, heat waves and floods, along with otheradverse impacts such as increased water stress for up to 1.7billion people, wildfire frequency and flood risks, are projected inmany regions. Neither does staying below 2°C rule out largescaledisasters such as melting ice sheets. Partial de-glaciation ofthe Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic icesheet, could even occur from additional warming within a rangeof 0.8 – 3.8°C above current levels. 2 If rising temperatures are tobe kept within acceptable limits then we need to significantlyreduce our greenhouse gas emissions. This makes bothenvironmental and economic sense.global negotiationRecognising the global threats of climate change, the signatoriesto the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) agreed to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The Protocolentered into force in early 2005 and its 193 members meetcontinuously to negotiate further refinement and development ofthe agreement. Only one major industrialised nation, the UnitedStates, has not ratified the protocol. In 2011, Canada announcedits intention to withdraw from the protocol. In Copenhagen in2009, the members of the UNFCCC were not able to deliver anew climate change agreement towards ambitious and fairemission reductions. At the 2012 Conference of the Parties inDurban, there was agreement to reach a new agreement by 2015and to adopt a second commitment period at the end of 2012.However, the United Nations Environment Program’s examinationof the climate action pledges for 2020 shows a major gapbetween what the science demands to curb climate change andwhat the countries plan to do. The proposed mitigation pledgesput forward by governments are likely to allow global warming toat least 2.5 to 5 degrees temperature increase above preindustriallevels. 3the nuclear issueThe nuclear industry promises that nuclear energy can contributeto both climate protection and energy security, however theirclaims are not supported by data. The most recent EnergyTechnology Perspectives report published by the InternationalEnergy Agency includes a Blue Map scenario including aquadrupling of nuclear capacity between now and 2050. Toachieve this, the report says that on average 32 large reactors(1,000 MWe each) would have to be built every year from nowuntil 2050. According to the IEA’s own scenario, such massivenuclear expansion would cut carbon emissions by less than 5%.More realistic analysis shows the past development history ofnuclear power and the global production capacity make suchexpansion extremely unviable. Japan’s major nuclear accident atFukushima in March 2011 following a tsunami came 25 yearsafter the disastrous explosion in the Chernobyl nuclear powerplant in former Soviet Union, illustrating the inherent risks ofnuclear energy. Nuclear energy is simply unsafe, expensive, hascontinuing waste disposal problems and can not reduce emissionsby a large enough amount.climate change and security of supplySecurity of supply – both for access to supplies and financialstability – is now at the top of the energy policy agenda. Recentrapidly fluctuating oil prices are lined to a combination of manyevents, however one reason for these price fluctuations is thatsupplies of all proven resources of fossil fuels are becomingscarcer and more expensive to produce. Some ‘non-conventional’resources such as shale oil have become economic, withdevastating consequences for the local environment. The days of‘cheap oil and gas’ are coming to an end. Uranium, the fuel fornuclear power, is also a finite resource. By contrast, the reservesof renewable energy that are technically accessible globally arelarge enough to provide more than 40 times more energy thanthe world currently consumes, forever, according to the latestIPCC Special report Renewables (SRREN). Renewable energytechnologies are at different levels of technical and economicmaturity, but a variety of sources offer increasingly attractiveoptions. Cost reductions in just the past two years have changedthe economic of renewables fundamentally, especially wind andsolar photovoltaics. The common feature of all renewable energysources, the wind, sun, earth’s crust, and ocean is that theyproduce little or no greenhouse gases and are a virtuallyinexhaustible ‘fuel’. Some technologies are already competitive;the solar and the wind industry have maintained double digitgrowth rates over 10 years now, leading to faster technologydeployment world wide.references1 W. L. HARE. A SAFE LANDING FOR THE CLIMATE. STATE OF THE WORLD. WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE. 2009.2 JOEL B. SMITH, STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, GARY W. YOHE, WILLIAM HARE,MICHAEL D. MASTRANDREA, ANAND PATWARDHAN, IAN BURTON, JAN CORFEE-MORLOT, CHRIS H. D.MAGADZA, HANS-MARTIN FÜSSEL, A. BARRIE PITTOCK, ATIQ RAHMAN, AVELINO SUAREZ, AND JEAN-PASCAL VAN YPERSELE: ASSESSING DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH AN UPDATE OF THEINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) “REASONS FOR CONCERN”. PROCEEDINGSOF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. PUBLISHED ONLINE BEFORE PRINT FEBRUARY 26, 2009, DOI:10.1073/PNAS.0812355106. THE ARTICLE IS FREELY AVAILABLEAT:HTTP://WWW.PNAS.ORG/CONTENT/EARLY/2009/02/25/0812355106.FULL.PDF. A COPY OF THE GRAPHCAN BE FOUND ON APPENDIX 1.3 UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME (UNEP): ‘BRIDGING THE EMISSIONS GAP’. A UNEPSYNTHESIS REPORT, NOV. 2011.15

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKEnergy efficiency is a sleeping giant – offering the most costcompetitive way to reform the energy sector. There is enormouspotential for reducing our consumption of energy, while providingthe same level of energy services. New business models toimplement energy efficiency must be developed and must getmore political support. This study details a series of energyefficiency measures which can substantially reduce demandacross industry, homes, business and services as well as transport.the energy [r]evolution key principlesThe expert consensus is that this fundamental shift in the way weconsume and generate energy must begin immediately and be wellunderway within the next ten years in order to avert the worstimpacts of climate change. 4 The scale of the challenge requires acomplete transformation of the way we produce, consume anddistribute energy, while maintaining economic growth. The five keyprinciples behind this Energy [R]evolution will be to:• Implement renewable solutions, especially throughdecentralised energy systems and grid expansions• Respect the natural limits of the environment• Phase out dirty, unsustainable energy sources• Create greater equity in the use of resources• Decouple economic growth from the consumption of fossil fuelsDecentralised energy systems, where power and heat areproduced close to the point of final use reduce grid loads andenergy losses in distribution. Investments in ‘climateinfrastructure’ such as smart interactive grids and transmissiongrids to transport large quantities of offshore wind andconcentrating solar power are essential. Building up clusters ofrenewable micro grids, especially for people living in remoteareas, will be a central tool in providing sustainable electricity tothe almost two billion people around who currently don’t haveaccess to electricity.projections to realityProjection of global installed wind power capacity at theend of 2010 in the first Global Energy [R]evolution,published in January 2007.>> 156 GWthe energy [r]evolution – key resultsRenewable energy sources account for 13.5% of the world’sprimary energy demand in 2009. The main source is biomass,which is mostly used in the heat sector.For electricity generation renewables contribute about 19.3%and for heat supply, around 25%, much of this is from traditionaluses such as firewood. About 81% of the primary energy supplytoday still comes from fossil fuels and 5.5% from nuclear energy.The Energy [R]evolution scenario describes developmentpathways to a sustainable energy supply, achieving the urgentlyneeded CO2 reduction target and a nuclear phase-out, withoutunconventional oil resources. The results of the Energy[R]evolution scenario which will be achieved through thefollowing measures:• Curbing global energy demand: The world’s energy demand isprojected by combining population development, GDP growthand energy intensity. Under the Reference scenario, totalprimary energy demand increases by 61% from about 500 EJ(Exajoules) per year in 2009 to 806 EJ per year in 2050. Inthe Energy [R]evolution scenario, demand increases by only10% compared to current consumption until 2020 anddecreases slightly afterwards to 2009 levels.• Controlling global power demand: Under the Energy[R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected toincrease disproportionately, the main growth in households andservices. With adequate efficiency measures, however, a higherincrease can be avoided, leading to electricity demand ofaround 41,000 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Referencescenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of12,800 TWh/a.• Reducing global heating demand: Efficiency gains in the heatsupply sector are even larger than in the electricity sector.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heatsupply can eventually be reduced significantly. Compared to theReference scenario, consumption equivalent to 46,500 PJ/a isavoided through efficiency measures by 2050. The lowerdemand can be achieved by energy-related renovation of theexisting stock of residential buildings, introduction of lowenergy standards; even ‘energy-plus-houses’ for new buildings,so people can enjoy the same comfort and energy services.Actual global installed wind capacity at the end of 2010.>> 197 GWWhile at the end of 2011 already 237 GW have beeninstalled. More needs to be done.references4 IPCC – SPECIAL REPORT RENEWABLES, CHAPTER 1, MAY 2011.16

image THOUSANDS OF FISH DIE AT THE DRY RIVERBED OF MANAQUIRI LAKE, 150 KILOMETERS FROMAMAZONAS STATE CAPITOL MANAUS, BRAZIL.© GP/ALBERTO CESAR ARAUJO• Development of global industry energy demand: The energydemand in the industry sector will grow in both scenarios.While the economic growth rates in the Reference and theEnergy [R]evolution scenario are identical, the growth of theoverall energy demand is different due to a faster increase ofthe energy intensity in the alternative case. Decouplingeconomic growth with the energy demand is key to reach asustainable energy supply by 2050, the Energy [R]evolutionscenario saves 40% less energy per $ GDP than theReference case.• Electricity generation: A dynamically growing renewableenergy market compensates for phasing out nuclear energy andfewer fossil fuel-fired power plants. By 2050, 94% of theelectricity produced worldwide will come from renewableenergy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PV andgeothermal energy – will contribute 60% of electricitygeneration. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects animmediate market development with high annual growth ratesachieving a renewable electricity share of 37% already by2020 and 61% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewableswill reach almost 7,400 GW in 2030 and 15,100 GWby 2050.• Future costs of electricity generation: Under the Energy[R]evolution scenario the costs of electricity generationincrease slightly compared to the Reference scenario. Thisdifference will be on average less than 0.6 $cent/kWh up to2020. However, if fossil fuel prices go any higher than themodel assumes, this gap will decrease. Electricity generationcosts will become economically favourable under the Energy[R]evolution scenario by 2025 and by 2050, costs will besignificantly lower: about 8 $cents/kWh – or 45% below thosein the Reference version• The future electricity bill: Under the Reference scenario, theunchecked growth in demand, results in total electricity supplycosts rising from today’s $ 2,364 billion per year to more than$ 8,830 billion in 2050. The Energy [R]evolution scenariohelps to stabilise energy costs, increasing energy efficiency andshifting to renewable energy supply means long term costs forelectricity supply are 22% lower in 2050 than in the Referencescenario (including estimated costs for efficiency measures).• Future investment in power generation: The overall global levelof investment required in new power plants up to 2020 will bein the region of $ 11.5 trillion in the Reference case and$ 20.1 trillion in the Energy [R]evolution. The need to replacethe ageing fleet of power plants in OECD countries and toinstall new power plants in developing countries will be themajor investment drivers. Depending on the local resources,renewable energy resources (for example wind in a high windarea) can produce electricity at the same cost levels as coal orgas power plants. Solar photovoltaic already reach ‘grid parity’in many industrialised countries. For the Energy [R]evolutionscenario until 2050 to become reality would require about$ 50,400 billion in investment in the power sector (includinginvestments for replacement after the economic lifetime of theplants). Under the Reference scenario, total investment wouldbe split 48% to 52% between conventional power plants andrenewable energy plus cogeneration (CHP) up to 2050. Underthe Energy [R]evolution scenario 95% of global investmentwould be in renewables and cogeneration. Up to 2030, thepower sector investment that does go to fossil fuels would befocused mainly on cogeneration plants. The average annualinvestment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario from today to 2050 would be $ 1,260 billion,compared to $ 555 billion in the Reference case.• Fuel costs savings: Because renewable energy, except biomass,has no fuel costs, the fuel cost savings in the Energy[R]evolution scenario reach a total of $ 52,800 billion up to2050, or $ 1320 billion per year. The total fuel cost savingstherefore would cover more than two times the total additionalinvestments compared to the Reference scenario. Theserenewable energy sources would then go on to produceelectricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, whilethe costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden onnational economies.• Heating supply: Renewables currently provide 25% of theglobal energy demand for heat supply, the main contributioncoming from the use of biomass. In the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, renewables provide more than 50% of the world’stotal heat demand in 2030 and more than 90% in 2050.Energy efficiency measures can decrease the current demandfor heat supply by 10 %, and still support improving livingstandards of a growing population.• Future investments in the heat sector: The heat sector in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario would require a major revision ofcurrent investment strategies in heating technologies. Inparticular enormous increases in installations are required torealise the potential of the not yet common solar andgeothermal technologies and heat pumps. Installed capacityneeds to increase by a factor of 60 for solar thermal and by afactor of over 3,000 for geothermal and heat pumps. Becausethe level of technological complexity in this sector is extremelyvariable, the Energy [R]evolution scenario can only be roughlycalculated, to require around $ 27 trillion investment inrenewable heating technologies up to 2050. This includesinvestments for replacement after the economic lifetime of theplant and is approximately $ 670 billion per year.17

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK• Future employment in the energy sector: The Energy[R]evolution scenario results in more global energy sector jobsat every stage of the projection.There are 23.3 million energy sector jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution in 2015, and 18.7 million in theReference scenario.In 2020, there are 22.6 million jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario, and 17.8 millionin the Reference scenario.In 2030, there are 18.3 million jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario and 15.7 millionin the Reference scenario.There is a decline in overall job numbers under both scenariosbetween 2010 and 2030. Jobs in the coal sector declinesignificantly in both scenarios, leading to a drop of 6.8 millionenergy jobs in the Reference scenario by 2030. Strong growth inthe renewable sector leads to an increase of 4% in total energysector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario by 2015. Jobnumbers fall after 2020, so jobs in the Energy [R]evolution are19% below 2010 levels at 2030. However, this is 2.5 millionmore jobs than in the Reference scenario. Renewable energyaccounts for 65% of energy jobs by 2030, with the majorityspread over wind, solar PV, solar heating, and biomass.• Global transport: In the transport sector it is assumed that,energy consumption will continue to increase under the Energy[R]evolution scenario up to 2020 due to fast growing demandfor services. After that it falls back to the level of the currentdemand by 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario,transport energy demand is reduced overall by 60% or about90,000 PJ/a by 2050. Energy demand for transport under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario will therefore increase between2009 and 2050 by only 26% to about 60,500 PJ/a.Significant savings are made from a shift towards smaller carstriggered by economic incentives together with a significantshift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains –together with reducing vehicle kilometres travelled per year. In2030, electricity will provide 12% of the transport sector’stotal energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050the share will be 44%.• Primary energy consumption: Under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario the overall primary energy demand will be reduced by40% in 2050 compared to the Reference scenario. In thisprojection almost the entire global electricity supply, includingthe majority of the energy used in buildings and industry, wouldcome from renewable energy sources. The transport sector, inparticular aviation and shipping, would be the last sector tobecome fossil fuel free.• Development of CO2 emissions: Worldwide CO2 emissions in theReference case will increase by 62% while under the Energy[R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 27,925 milliontons in 2009 to 3,076 million t in 2050. Annual per capitaemissions will drop from 4.1 tonne CO2 to 2.4 tonne CO2 in2030 and 0.3 tonne CO2 in 2050. Even with a phase out ofnuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions willdecrease in the electricity sector. In the long term, efficiencygains and greater use of renewable electricity for vehicles willalso reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of33% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the transport sector will be themain source of emissions ahead of the industry and powergeneration. By 2050 the Global Energy related CO2 emissionsare 85% under 1990 levels.policy changesTo make the Energy [R]evolution real and to avoid dangerousclimate change, Greenpeace, GWEC and EREC demand thatthe following policies and actions are implemented in theenergy sector:1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.2. Internalise the external (social and environmental) costs ofenergy production through ‘cap and trade’ emissions trading.3. Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy consumingappliances, buildings and vehicles.4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy andcombined heat and power generation.5. Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priorityaccess to the grid for renewable power generators.6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors, for exampleby feed-in tariff programmes.7. Implement better labelling and disclosure mechanisms toprovide more environmental product information.8. Increase research and development budgets for renewableenergy and energy efficiency.18

1climate and energy policyTHE UNFCCC ANDRENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETSTHE KYOTO PROTOCOLPOLICY CHANGESINTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICY IN THE ENERGY SECTORFTSM: A SPECIAL FEED-IN LAWPROPOSAL FOR DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESFINANCING THE ENERGY[R]EVOLUTION WITH FTSM1“bridgingthe gap”© NASA/JEFF SCHMALTZimage HURRICANE BUD FORMING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, MAY 2012.19

climate & energy policy | THE UNFCCC & THE KYOTO PROTOCOL, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICY, RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS1If we do not take urgent and immediate action to protect theclimate, the threats from climate change could become irreversible.The goal of climate policy should be to keep the global meantemperature rise to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Wehave very little time within which we can change our energysystem to meet these targets. This means that global emissionswill have to peak and start to decline by the end of the nextdecade at the latest.The only way forwards is a rapid reduction in the emission ofgreenhouse gases into the atmosphere.1.1 the UNFCCC and the kyoto protocolRecognising the global threats of climate change, the signatoriesto the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) agreed the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The Protocolentered into force in early 2005 and its 193 members meetcontinuously to negotiate further refinement and development ofthe agreement. Only one major industrialised nation, the UnitedStates, has not ratified the protocol. In 2011, Canada announcedits intention to withdraw from the protocol.In Copenhagen in 2009, the 195 members of the UNFCCC weresupposed to deliver a new climate change agreement towardsambitious and fair emission reductions. Unfortunately theambition to reach such an agreement failed at this conference.At the 2012 Conference of the Parties in Durban, there wasagreement to reach a new agreement by 2015. There is alsoagreement to adopt a second commitment period at the end of2012. However, the United Nations Environment Program’sexamination of the climate action pledges for 2020 shows thatthere is still a major gap between what the science demands tocurb climate change and what the countries plan to do. Theproposed mitigation pledges put forward by governments arelikely to allow global warming to at least 2.5 to 5 degreestemperature increase above pre-industrial levels. 520box 1.1: what does the kyoto protocol do?The Kyoto Protocol commits 193 countries (signatories) toreduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from their1990 level. The global target period to achieve cuts was2008-2012. Under the protocol, many countries andregions have adopted regional and national reductiontargets. The European Union commitment is for overallreduction of 8%, for example. In order to help reach thistarget, the EU also created a target to increase itsproportion of renewable energy from 6% to 12% by 2010.reference5 UNEP EMISSIONS GAP REPORT.This means that the new agreement in 2015, with the FifthAssessment Report of the IPCC on its heels, should strive forclimate action for 2020 that ensures that the world stay as farbelow an average temperature increase of 2°C as possible. Such anagreement will need to ensure:• That industrialised countries reduce their emissions on averageby at least 40% by 2020 compared to their 1990 level.• That industrialised countries provide funding of at least $140billion a year to developing countries under the newly establishedGreen Climate Fund to enable them to adapt to climate change,protect their forests and be part of the energy revolution.• That developing countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissionsby 15 to 30% compared to their projected growth by 2020.1.2 international energy policyAt present there is a distortion in many energy markets, whererenewable energy generators have to compete with old nuclearand fossil fuel power stations but not on a level playing field. Thisis because consumers and taxpayers have already paid theinterest and depreciation on the original investments so thegenerators are running at a marginal cost. Political action isneeded to overcome market distortions so renewable energytechnologies can compete on their own merits.While governments around the world are liberalising theirelectricity markets, the increasing competitiveness of renewableenergy should lead to higher demand. Without political support,however, renewable energy remains at a disadvantage,marginalised because there has been decades of massivefinancial, political and structural support to conventionaltechnologies. Developing renewables will therefore require strongpolitical and economic efforts for example, through laws thatguarantee stable tariffs over a period of up to 20 years.Renewable energy will also contribute to sustainable economicgrowth, high quality jobs, technology development, globalcompetitiveness and industrial and research leadership.1.3 renewable energy targetsA growing number of countries have established targets forrenewable energy in order to reduce greenhouse emissions andincrease energy security. Targets are usually expressed asinstalled capacity or as a percentage of energy consumption andthey are important catalysts for increasing the share ofrenewable energy worldwide.However, in the electricity sector the investment horizon can beup to 40 years. Renewable energy targets therefore need to haveshort, medium and long term steps and must be legally binding inorder to be effective. They should also be supported by incentivemechanisms such as feed-in tariffs for renewable electricitygeneration. To get significant increases in the proportion ofrenewable energy, targets must be set in accordance with thelocal potential for each technology (wind, solar, biomass etc) andbe complemented by policies that develop the skills andmanufacturing bases to deliver the agreed quantity.

Data from the wind and solar power industries show that it ispossible to maintain a growth rate of 30 to 35% in therenewable energy sector. In conjunction with the EuropeanPhotovoltaic Industry Association, 6 the European Solar ThermalPower Industry Association 7 and the Global Wind EnergyCouncil, 8 the European Renewable Energy Council, Greenpeacehas documented the development of these clean energy industriesin a series of Global Outlook documents from 1990 onwards andpredicted growth up to 2020 and 2040.1.4 policy changes in the energy sectorGreenpeace and the renewable energy industry share a clearagenda for the policy changes which need to be made toencourage a shift to renewable sources.The main demands are:1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.2. Internalise external (social and environmental) costs through‘cap and trade’ emissions trading.3. Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy consumingappliances, buildings and vehicles.4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy andcombined heat and power generation.5. Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priorityaccess to the grid for renewable power generators.6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors, for examplethrough feed-in tariff payments.7. Implement better labelling and disclosure mechanisms toprovide more environmental product information.8. Increase research and development budgets for renewableenergy and energy efficiency.Conventional energy sources receive an estimated $409 billion 9 insubsidies in 2010, resulting in heavily distorted markets.Subsidies artificially reduce the price of power, keep renewableenergy out of the market place and prop up non-competitivetechnologies and fuels. Eliminating direct and indirect subsidiesto fossil fuels and nuclear power would help move us towards alevel playing field across the energy sector. Renewable energywould not need special provisions if markets factored in the costof climate damage from greenhouse gas pollution. Subsidies topolluting technologies are perverse in that they are economicallyas well as environmentally detrimental. Removing subsidies fromconventional electricity supply would not only save taxpayers’money, it would also dramatically reduce the need for renewableenergy support.image GREENPEACE AND AN INDEPENDENTNASA-FUNDED SCIENTIST COMPLETEDMEASUREMENTS OF MELT LAKES ON THEGREENLAND ICE SHEET THAT SHOW ITSVULNERABILITY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES.1.4.1 the most effective way to implement the energy[r]evolution: feed-in lawsTo plan and invest in energy infrastructure whether forconventional or renewable energy requires secure policyframeworks over decades.The key requirements are:a. Long term security for the investment The investor needs to knowif the energy policy will remain stable over the entire investmentperiod (until the generator is paid off). Investors want a “good”return on investment and while there is no universal definition of agood return, it depends to a large extent on the inflation rate of thecountry. Germany, for example, has an average inflation rate of 2%per year and a minimum return of investment expected by thefinancial sector is 6% to 7%. Achieving 10 to 15% returns is seenas extremely good and everything above 20% is seen as suspicious.b. Long-term security for market conditions The investor needs toknow, if the electricity or heat from the power plant can be soldto the market for a price which guarantees a “good” return oninvestment (ROI). If the ROI is high, the financial sector willinvest, it is low compared to other investments financialinstitutions will not invest.c. Transparent Planning Process A transparent planning process iskey for project developers, so they can sell the planned project toinvestors or utilities. The entire licensing process must be clearand transparent.d. Access to the grid A fair access to the grid is essential forrenewable power plants. If there is no grid connection availableor if the costs to access the grid are too high the project will notbe built. In order to operate a power plant it is essential forinvestors to know if the asset can reliably deliver and sellelectricity to the grid. If a specific power plant (e.g. a wind farm)does not have priority access to the grid , the operator might haveto switch the plant off when there is an over supply from otherpower plants or due to a bottleneck situation in the grid. Thisarrangement can add high risk to the project financing and itmay not be financed or it will attract a “risk-premium” whichwill lower the ROI.© GP/NICK COBBING1climate & energy policy | POLICY CHANGES IN THE ENERGY SECTORreferences6 ‘SOLARGENERATION IV’, SEPTEMBER 2009.7 ‘GLOBAL CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER OUTLOOK – WHY RENEWABLES ARE HOT!’ MAY, 2009.8 ‘GLOBAL WIND ENERGY OUTLOOK 2008’, OCTOBER 2008.9 ‘IEA WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2011’, PARIS NOVEMBER 2011, CHAPTER 14, PAGE 507.21

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK1climate & energy policy | POLICY CHANGES IN THE ENERGY SECTORbox 1.2: example of a sustainable feed-in tariffThe German Feed-in Law (“Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz” =EEG) is among the most effective pieces of legislation tophase in renewable energy technologies. Greenpeace supportsthis law and encourages other countries to implement a similareffective renewable energy law.Structure of the German renewable energy Act:a. Definitions & Purpose Chapter 1 of the law provides ageneral overview about the purpose, the scope of theapplications, specific definitions for all used terms in the lawas well as the statutory obligation.b. Regulation of all grid related issues Chapter 2 of the lawprovides the general provisions of grid connection, technical andoperational requirements, how to establish and use gridconnection and how the renewable electricity purchase, thetransmission and distribution of this electricity must be organised.c. Regulation how for grid expansion and renewable powermanagement in the grid This part of the law regulates the gridcapacity expansion and feed-in management, how to organisethe compensation for required grid expansion, the feed-inmanagement and a hardship clause.d. Regulations for all tariff-related subjects This part provides thegeneral provisions regarding tariffs, the payment claims, how toorganise direct sale of renewable electricity, how to calculate thetariffs, details about tariffs paid for electricity from severalinstallations, the degression rate for each technology as well asthe commencement and duration of tariff payment and settingof payment claims. There are special provisions regarding tariffsfor the different fuel sources (hydropower, landfill gas, sewagetreatment gas, mine gas, biomass, geothermal energy, windenergy – re-powering, offshore wind energy, solar power, rooftopinstallations for solar radiation).e. Equalisation scheme This part defines how to organise thenationwide equalisation scheme for the payment of all feed-intariffs. The delivery to transmission system operator, tariffspaid by transmission system operator, the equalisation amongsttransmission system operators, the delivery to suppliers,subsequent corrections and advance paymentsf. Special regulations for energy intensive industries The partdefines the special equalisation scheme for electricity-intensiveenterprises and rail operators, the basic principle, the list ofsectors which are excluded from the payment of feed-in lawcosts and how to apply for this exclusion.g. Transparency Regulations This part established a detailedprocess how to make the entire process transparent andpublicly accessible to minimise corruption, false treatments ofconsumers, or some scale power plant operators. Theregulations provides the basic information principles forinstallation operators, grid system operators, transmissionsystem operators, utility companies, certification, data to beprovided to the Federal Network Agency (the governmentalcontrol body for all 800 grid operators in Germany), data tobe made public, notification regulations, details for billing.Another subchapter identifies regulations for the guarantee oforigin of the renewable electricity feed into the grid and theprohibition of multiple sales.h. Legal roles and responsibilities This part identifies the legalprotection and official procedure for clearing house andconsumer protection, temporary legal protection, use ofmaritime shipping lanes, tasks of the Federal Network AgencyAdministrative fines provisions and supervision.i. Governmental procedures to control and review the law on aregular basis Authorisation to issue ordinances, when and howto commission the progress report (published every secondyear to capture lessons learned and to change regulationwhich do not work), transitional provisions, authorisation toissue ordinances and transitional provisions.22

1.4.2 bankable renewable energy support schemesSince the early development of renewable energies within thepower sector, there has been an ongoing debate about the bestand most effective type of support scheme. The EuropeanCommission published a survey in December 2005 whichconcluded that feed -in tariffs are by far the most efficient andsuccessful mechanism. A more recent update of this report,presented in March 2010 at the IEA Renewable EnergyWorkshop by the Fraunhofer Institute 10 underscores the sameconclusion. The Stern Review on the Economics of ClimateChange also concluded that feed -in tariffs “achieve largerdeployment at lower costs”. Globally more than 40 countrieshave adopted some version of the system.Although the organisational form of these tariffs differs fromcountry to country some criteria have emerged as essential forsuccessful renewable energy policy. At the heart of these is areliable, bankable support scheme for renewable projects whichprovides long term stability and certainty. 11 Bankable supportschemes result in lower-cost projects because they lower the riskfor both investors and equipment suppliers. The cost of wind -powered electricity in Germany is up to 40% cheaper than in theUnited Kingdom, 12 for example, because the support system ismore secure and reliable.box 1.3: experience of feed -in tariffs• Feed- in tariffs are seen as the best way forward,especially in developing countries. By 2009 this systemhas created an incentive for 75% of PV capacityworldwide and 45% of wind capacity.• Based on experience, feed- in tariffs are the most effectivemechanism to create a stable framework to build adomestic market for renewable energy. They have thelowest investment risk, highest technology diversity,lowest windfall profits for mature technologies andattract a broad spectrum of investors. 13• The main argument against them is the increase inelectricity prices for households and industry, because theextra costs are shared across all customers. This isparticularly difficult for developing countries, wheremany people can’t afford to spend more money forelectricity services.image WANG WAN YI, AGE 76, ADJUSTS THESUNLIGHT POINT ON A SOLAR DEVICE USED TOBOIL HIS KETTLE. HE LIVES WITH HIS WIFE IN ONEROOM CARVED OUT OF THE SANDSTONE, A TYPICALDWELLING FOR LOCAL PEOPLE IN THE REGION.DROUGHT IS ONE OF THE MOST HARMFUL NATURALHAZARDS IN NORTHWEST CHINA. CLIMATE CHANGEHAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON CHINA’SENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY.For developing countries, feed -in laws would be an idealmechanism to boost development of new renewable energies. Theextra costs to consumers’ electricity bills are an obstacle forcountries with low average incomes. In order to enabletechnology transfer from Annex 1 countries under the KyotoProtocol to developing countries, a mix of a feed -in law,international finance and emissions trading could establish alocally-based renewable energy infrastructure and industry withhelp from the wealthier countries.Finance for renewable energy projects is one of the mainobstacles in developing countries. While large scale projects havefewer funding problems, there are difficulties for small,community-based projects, even though they have a high degreeof public support. The experiences from micro credits for smallhydro projects in Bangladesh, for example, or wind farms inDenmark and Germany, show how economic benefits can flow tothe local community. With careful project planning based on goodlocal knowledge and understanding, projects can achieve localinvolvement and acceptance. When the community identifies theproject rather than the project identifying the community, theresult is generally faster bottom- up growth of the renewableenergy sector.The four main elements for successful renewable energy supportschemes are therefore:• A clear, bankable pricing system.• Priority access to the grid with clear identification of who isresponsible for the connection, and how it is incentivised.• Clear, simple administrative and planning permissionprocedures.• Public acceptance/support.The first is fundamentally important, but it is no good if youdon’t have the other three elements as well.© GP/JOHN NOVIS1climate & energy policy | POLICY CHANGES IN THE ENERGY SECTORreferences10 EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT LONG-TERM ORIENTED RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPORT POLICIES,FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE, MARIO RAGWITZ, MARCH 2010.11 ‘THE SUPPORT OF ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES’, EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2005.12 SEE ABOVE REPORT, P. 27, FIGURE 4.13 EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT LONG-TERM ORIENTED RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPORT POLICIES,FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE, MARIO RAGWITZ, MARCH 2010.23

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKclimate & energy policy | FTSM: A SPECIAL FEED IN LAW PROPOSAL FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES11.5 ftsm: a special feed-in law proposal fordeveloping countriesThis section outlines a Greenpeace proposal for a feed-in tariffsystem in developing countries whose additional costs would befinanced by developed nations. The financial resources for thiscould come from a combination of innovative sources and couldbe managed by International Climate Mitigation Funds or otheravailable financial resources.Energy [R]evolution scenarios show that renewable electricitygeneration has huge environmental and economic benefits.However its investment and generation costs, especially indeveloping countries, will remain higher than those of existingcoal or gas-fired power stations for the next five to ten years. Tobridge this cost gap a specific support mechanism for the powersector is needed. The Feed-in Tariff Support Mechanism (FTSM)is a concept conceived by Greenpeace International. 14 The aim isthe rapid expansion of renewable energy in developing countrieswith financial support from industrialised nations.Since the FTSM concept was first presented in 2008, the ideahas received considerable support from a variety of differentstakeholders. The Deutsche Bank Group’s Climate ChangeAdvisors, for example, have developed a proposal based on FTSMcalled “GET FiT”. Announced in April 2010, this took on boardmajor aspects of the Greenpeace concept.For developing countries, feed-in laws would be an idealmechanism to boost development of new renewable energies. Theextra costs to consumers’ electricity bills are an obstacle forcountries with low average incomes. In order to enabletechnology transfer from Annex 1 countries under the KyotoProtocol to developing countries, a mix of a feed-in law,international finance and emissions trading could establish alocally-based renewable energy infrastructure and industry withhelp from the wealthier countries.Finance for renewable energy projects is one of the mainobstacles in developing countries. While large scale projects havefewer funding problems, there are difficulties for small,community-based projects, even though they have a high degreeof public support. The experiences from micro credits for smallhydro projects in Bangladesh, for example, or wind farms inDenmark and Germany, show how economic benefits can flow tothe local community. With careful project planning based on goodlocal knowledge and understanding, projects can achieve localinvolvement and acceptance.The four main elements for successful renewable energy supportschemes are therefore:• A clear, bankable pricing system.• Priority access to the grid with clear identification of who isresponsible for the connection, and how it is incentivised.• Clear, simple administrative and planning permission procedures.• Public acceptance/support.24The first is fundamentally important, but it is no good if you don’thave the other three elements as well.1.5.1 the feed-in tariff support mechanismThe basic aim of the FTSM is to facilitate the introduction of feedinlaws in developing countries by providing additional financialresources on a scale appropriate to local circumstances. For thosecountries with higher potential renewable energy capacity, it couldbe appropriate to create a new sectoral no-lose mechanismgenerating emission reduction credits for sale to Annex I countries,with the proceeds being used to offset part of the additional cost ofthe feed-in tariff system. For others there would need to be a moredirectly-funded approach to paying for the additional costs toconsumers of the tariff. The ultimate objective would be to providebankable and long term stable support for the development of alocal renewable energy market. The tariffs would bridge the gapbetween conventional power generation costs and those ofrenewable generation. The FTSM could also be used for ruralelectrification concepts such as the Greenpeace-energynautics “REcluster concept” (see Chapter 2).The key parameters for feed in tariffs under FTSM are:• Variable tariffs for different renewable energy technologies,depending on their costs and technology maturity, paid for20 years.• Payments based on actual generation in order to achieveproperly maintained projects with high performance ratios.• Payment of the ‘additional costs’ for renewable generation basedon the German system, where the fixed tariff is paid minus thewholesale electricity price which all generators receive.• Payment could include an element for infrastructure costs suchas grid connection, grid reinforcement or the development of asmart grid. A specific regulation needs to define when thepayments for infrastructure costs are needed in order to achievea timely market expansion of renewable power generation.A developing country which wants to take part in the FTSM wouldneed to establish clear regulations for the following:• Guaranteed access to the electricity grid for renewableelectricity projects.• Establishment of a feed-in law based on successful examples.• Transparent access to all data needed to establish the feed-intariff, including full records of generated electricity.• Clear planning and licensing procedures.The design of the FTSM would need to ensure that there werestable flows of funds to renewable energy suppliers. There maytherefore need to be a buffer between fluctuating CO2 emissionprices and stable long term feed-in tariffs. The FTSM will need tosecure payment of the required feed-in tariffs over the wholelifetime (about 20 years) of each project.reference14 IMPLEMENTING THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION, OCTOBER 2008, SVEN TESKE,GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.

In order to be eligible, all renewable energy projects must have aclear set of environmental criteria which are built into nationallicensing procedure in the country where the project will generateelectricity. The criteria’s minimum environmental standards will needto be defined by an independent monitoring group. If there arealready acceptable criteria developed these should be adopted ratherthan reinventing the wheel. The members of the monitoring groupwould include NGOs, energy and finance experts as well as membersof the governments involved. Funding will not be made available forspeculative investments, only as soft loans for FTSM projects.The FTSM would also seek to create the conditions for privatesector actors, such as local banks and energy service companies,to gain experience in technology development, projectdevelopment, project financing and operation and maintenance inorder to develop track records which would help reduce barriersto further renewable energy development.image THE WIND TURBINES ARE GOING TO BEUSED FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN OFFSHOREWINDFARM AT MIDDELGRUNDEN WHICH IS CLOSETO COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.The key parameters for the FTSM fund will be:• The mechanism will guarantee payment of the feed-in tariffs overa period of 20 years as long as the project is operated properly.• The mechanism will receive annual income from emissionstrading or from direct funding.• The mechanism will pay feed-in tariffs annually only on thebasis of generated electricity.• Every FTSM project must have a professional maintenancecompany to ensure high availability.• The grid operator must do its own monitoring and sendgeneration data to the FTSM fund. Data from the projectmanagers and grid operators will be compared regularly tocheck consistency.© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP1climate & energy policy | FTSM: A SPECIAL FEED IN LAW PROPOSAL FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIESfigure 1.1: ftsm schemeFTSMroles and responsibilitiesdeveloping country:Legislation:• feed-in law• guaranteed grid access• licensing(inter-) national finance institute(s)Organizing and Monitoring:• organize financial flow• monitoring• providing soft loans• guarantee the payment of the feed-in tariffOECD countryLegislation:• CO2 credits under CDM• tax from Cap & Trade• auctioning CO2 Certificates25

22the energy [r]evolution conceptKEY PRINCIPLESTHE NEW ELECTRICITY GRID CASE STUDY GERMANY CASE STUDY BIHAR, INDIATHE “3 STEP IMPLEMENTATION”“smart use,generationand distributionare at the coreof the concept”© NASA/JESSE ALLENimage TIKEHAU ATOLL, FRENCH POLYNESIA. THE ISLANDS AND CORAL ATOLLS OF FRENCH POLYNESIA, LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, EPITOMIZE THE IDEA OFTROPICAL PARADISE: WHITE SANDY BEACHES, TURQUOISE LAGOONS, AND PALM TREES. EVEN FROM THE DISTANCE OF SPACE, THE VIEW OF THESE ATOLLS IS BEAUTIFUL.26

image A WOMAN STUDIES SOLAR POWER SYSTEMS ATTHE BAREFOOT COLLEGE. THE COLLEGE SPECIALISESIN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PROVIDES ASPACE WHERE STUDENTS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLDCAN LEARN TO UTILISE RENEWABLE ENERGY. THESTUDENTS TAKE THEIR NEW SKILLS HOME AND GIVETHEIR VILLAGES CLEAN ENERGY.© GP/EMMA STONERThe expert consensus is that this fundamental shift in the way weconsume and generate energy must begin immediately and be wellunderway within the next ten years in order to avert the worstimpacts of climate change. 15 The scale of the challenge requires acomplete transformation of the way we produce, consume anddistribute energy, while maintaining economic growth. Nothingshort of such a revolution will enable us to limit global warmingto a rise in temperature of lower than 2°C, above which theimpacts become devastating. This chapter explains the basicprinciples and strategic approach of the Energy [R]evolutionconcept, which is basis for the scenario modelling since the veryfirst Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2005. However,this concept has been constantly improved as technologiesdevelops and new technical and economical possibilities emerge.Current electricity generation relies mainly on burning fossil fuelsin very large power stations which generate carbon dioxide andalso waste much of their primary input energy. More energy islost as the power is moved around the electricity network and isconverted from high transmission voltage down to a supplysuitable for domestic or commercial consumers. The system isvulnerable to disruption: localised technical, weather-related oreven deliberately caused faults can quickly cascade, resulting inwidespread blackouts. Whichever technology generates theelectricity within this old fashioned configuration, it will inevitablybe subject to some, or all, of these problems. At the core of theEnergy [R]evolution there therefore there are change boths to theway that energy is produced and distributed.2.1 key principlesThe Energy [R]evolution can be achieved by adheringto five key principles:1. Respect natural limits – phase out fossil fuels by the end of thiscentury We must learn to respect natural limits. There is only somuch carbon that the atmosphere can absorb. Each year we emitalmost 30 billion tonnes of carbon equivalent; we are literallyfilling up the sky. Geological resources of coal could provideseveral hundred years of fuel, but we cannot burn them and keepwithin safe limits. Oil and coal development must be ended.The Energy [R]evolution scenario has a target to reduceenergy related CO2 emissions to a maximum of3.5 Gigatonnes (Gt) by 2050 and phase out over 80% offossil fuels by 2050.2. Equity and fair access to energy As long as there are naturallimits there needs to be a fair distribution of benefits and costswithin societies, between nations and between present and futuregenerations. At one extreme, a third of the world’s populationhas no access to electricity, whilst the most industrialisedcountries consume much more than their fair share.The effects of climate change on the poorest communitiesare exacerbated by massive global energy inequality. If weare to address climate change, one of the principles must beequity and fairness, so that the benefits of energy services –such as light, heat, power and transport – are available forall: north and south, rich and poor. Only in this way can wecreate true energy security, as well as the conditions forgenuine human wellbeing.The Energy [R]evolution scenario has a target to achieveenergy equity as soon as technically possible. By 2050 theaverage per capita emission should be between 0.5 and 1tonne of CO2.3. Implement clean, renewable solutions and decentralise energysystems There is no energy shortage. All we need to do is useexisting technologies to harness energy effectively andefficiently. Renewable energy and energy efficiency measuresare ready, viable and increasingly competitive. Wind, solarand other renewable energy technologies have experienceddouble digit market growth for the past decade. 16Just as climate change is real, so is the renewable energy sector.Sustainable decentralised energy systems produce less carbonemissions, are cheaper and involve less dependence on importedfuel. They create more jobs and empower local communities.Decentralised systems are more secure and more efficient. Thisis what the Energy [R]evolution must aim to create.“THE STONE AGE DID NOT END FOR LACK OF STONE, AND THE OILAGE WILL END LONG BEFORE THE WORLD RUNS OUT OF OIL.”Sheikh Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Arabian oil ministerTo stop the earth’s climate spinning out of control, most ofthe world’s fossil fuel reserves – coal, oil and gas – mustremain in the ground. Our goal is for humans to live withinthe natural limits of our small planet.4. Decouple growth from fossil fuel use Starting in the developedcountries, economic growth must be fully decoupled fromfossil fuel usage. It is a fallacy to suggest that economicgrowth must be predicated on their increased combustion.We need to use the energy we produce much more efficiently,and we need to make the transition to renewable energy andaway from fossil fuels quickly in order to enable clean andsustainable growth.5.Phase out dirty, unsustainable energy We need to phase out coaland nuclear power. We cannot continue to build coal plants ata time when emissions pose a real and present danger to bothecosystems and people. And we cannot continue to fuel themyriad nuclear threats by pretending nuclear power can in anyway help to combat climate change. There is no role fornuclear power in the Energy [R]evolution.2the energy [r]evolution concept | KEY PRINCIPLESreferences15 IPCC – SPECIAL REPORT RENEWABLES, CHAPTER 1, MAY 2011.16 REN 21, RENEWABLE ENERGY STATUS REPORT 2012, JUNE 2012.27

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | KEY PRINCIPLES22.2 the “3 step implementation”In 2009, renewable energy sources accounted for 13% of theworld’s primary energy demand. Biomass, which is mostly usedfor heating, was the main renewable energy source. The share ofrenewable energy in electricity generation was 18%. About 81%of primary energy supply today still comes from fossil fuels. 17Now is the time to make substantial structural changes in the energyand power sector within the next decade. Many power plants inindustrialised countries, such as the USA, Japan and the EuropeanUnion, are nearing retirement; more than half of all operating powerplants are over 20 years old. At the same time developing countries,such as China, India, South Africa and Brazil, are looking to satisfythe growing energy demand created by their expanding economies.Within this decade, the power sector will decide how newelectricity demand will be met, either by fossil and nuclear fuelsor by the efficient use of renewable energy. The Energy[R]evolution scenario puts forwards a policy and technical modelfor renewable energy and cogeneration combined with energyefficiency to meet the world’s needs.Both renewable energy and cogeneration on a large scale andthrough decentralised, smaller units – have to grow faster thanoverall global energy demand. Both approaches must replace oldgenerating technologies and deliver the additional energy requiredin the developing world.A transition phase is required to build up the necessaryinfrastructure because it is not possible to switch directly from alarge scale fossil and nuclear fuel based energy system to a fullrenewable energy supply. Whilst remaining firmly committed to thepromotion of renewable sources of energy, we appreciate thatconventional natural gas, used in appropriately scaled cogenerationplants, is valuable as a transition fuel, and can also drive costeffectivedecentralisation of the energy infrastructure. With warmersummers, tri-generation which incorporates heat-fired absorptionchillers to deliver cooling capacity in addition to heat and power,will become a valuable means of achieving emissions reductions.The Energy [R]evolution envisages a development pathway whichturns the present energy supply structure into a sustainable system.There are three main stages to this.Step 1: energy efficiency and equity The Energy [R]evolutionmakes an ambitious exploitation of the potential for energyefficiency. It focuses on current best practice and technologiesthat will become available in the future, assuming continuousinnovation. The energy savings are fairly equally distributed overthe three sectors – industry, transport and domestic/business.Intelligent use, not abstinence, is the basic philosophy.The most important energy saving options are improved heatinsulation and building design, super efficient electrical machines anddrives, replacement of old style electrical heating systems byrenewable heat production (such as solar collectors) and a reductionin energy consumption by vehicles used for goods and passengertraffic. Industrialised countries currently use energy in the mostinefficient way and can reduce their consumption drastically withoutthe loss of either housing comfort or information and entertainmentelectronics. The Energy [R]evolution scenario depends on energysaved in OECD countries to meet the increasing power requirementsin developing countries. The ultimate goal is stabilisation of globalenergy consumption within the next two decades. At the same timethe aim is to create ‘energy equity’ – shifting towards a fairerworldwide distribution of efficiently-used supply.A dramatic reduction in primary energy demand compared to theReference scenario – but with the same GDP and populationdevelopment – is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significantshare of renewable energy sources in the overall energy supplysystem, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy andreducing the consumption of fossil fuels.figure 2.1: centralised generation systems waste more than two thirds of their original energy input61.5 unitsLOST THROUGH INEFFICIENTGENERATION AND HEAT WASTAGE3.5 unitsLOST THROUGH TRANSMISSIONAND DISTRIBUTION13 unitsWASTED THROUGHINEFFICIENT END USE© DREAMSTIME© DREAMSTIME100 units >>ENERGY WITHIN FOSSIL FUEL38.5 units >>OF ENERGY FED TO NATIONAL GRID35 units >>OF ENERGY SUPPLIED22 unitsOF ENERGYACTUALLY UTILISEDreference17 ‘IEA WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2011, PARIS NOVEMBER 2011.28

Step 2: the renewable energy [r]evolution Decentralised energy andlarge scale renewables In order to achieve higher fuel efficienciesand reduce distribution losses, the Energy [R]evolution scenariomakes extensive use of Decentralised Energy (DE).This termsrefers to energy generated at or near the point of use.Decentralised energy is connected to a local distribution networksystem, supplying homes and offices, rather than the high voltagetransmission system. Because electricity generation is closer toconsumers any waste heat from combustion processes can to bepiped to nearby buildings, a system known as cogeneration orcombined heat and power. This means that for a fuel like gas, allthe input energy is used, not just a fraction as with traditionalcentralised fossil fuel electricity plant.Decentralised energy also includes stand-alone systems entirelyseparate from the public networks, for example heat pumps, solarthermal panels or biomass heating. These can all becommercialised for domestic users to provide sustainable, lowemission heating. Some consider decentralised energytechnologies ‘disruptive’ because they do not fit the existingelectricity market and system. However, with appropriate changesthey can grow exponentially with overall benefit anddiversification for the energy sector.image THE MARANCHON WIND TURBINE FARM INGUADALAJARA, SPAIN IS THE LARGEST IN EUROPEWITH 104 GENERATORS, WHICH COLLECTIVELYPRODUCE 208 MEGAWATTS OF ELECTRICITY,ENOUGH POWER FOR 590,000 PEOPLE, ANUALLY.A huge proportion of global energy in 2050 will be produced bydecentralised energy sources, although large scale renewableenergy supply will still be needed for an energy revolution. Largeoffshore wind farms and concentrating solar power (CSP) plantsin the sunbelt regions of the world will therefore have animportant role to play.Cogeneration (CHP) The increased use of combined heat andpower generation (CHP) will improve the supply system’s energyconversion efficiency, whether using natural gas or biomass. Inthe longer term, a decreasing demand for heat and the largepotential for producing heat directly from renewable energysources will limit the need for further expansion of CHP.Renewable electricity The electricity sector will be the pioneer ofrenewable energy utilisation. Many renewable electricitytechnologies have been experiencing steady growth over the past 20to 30 years of up to 35% annually and are expected to consolidateat a high level between 2030 and 2050. By 2050, under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario, the majority of electricity will beproduced from renewable energy sources. The anticipated growth ofelectricity use in transport will further promote the effective use ofrenewable power generation technologies.© GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA2the energy [r]evolution concept | THE “3 STEP IMPLEMENTATION”figure 2.2: a decentralised energy futureEXISTING TECHNOLOGIES, APPLIED IN A DECENTRALISED WAY AND COMBINED WITH EFFICIENCY MEASURES AND ZERO EMISSION DEVELOPMENTS, CANDELIVER LOW CARBON COMMUNITIES AS ILLUSTRATED HERE. POWER IS GENERATED USING EFFICIENT COGENERATION TECHNOLOGIES PRODUCING BOTH HEAT(AND SOMETIMES COOLING) PLUS ELECTRICITY, DISTRIBUTED VIA LOCAL NETWORKS. THIS SUPPLEMENTS THE ENERGY PRODUCED FROM BUILDINGINTEGRATED GENERATION. ENERGY SOLUTIONS COME FROM LOCAL OPPORTUNITIES AT BOTH A SMALL AND COMMUNITY SCALE. THE TOWN SHOWN HERE MAKESUSE OF – AMONG OTHERS – WIND, BIOMASS AND HYDRO RESOURCES. NATURAL GAS, WHERE NEEDED, CAN BE DEPLOYED IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT MANNER.city135241. PHOTOVOLTAIC, SOLAR FAÇADES WILL BE A DECORATIVE ELEMENT ONOFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS. PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS WILLBECOME MORE COMPETITIVE AND IMPROVED DESIGN WILL ENABLEARCHITECTS TO USE THEM MORE WIDELY.2. RENOVATION CAN CUT ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF OLD BUILDINGS BY ASMUCH AS 80% - WITH IMPROVED HEAT INSULATION, INSULATEDWINDOWS AND MODERN VENTILATION SYSTEMS.3. SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTORS PRODUCE HOT WATER FOR BOTH THEIROWN AND NEIGHBOURING BUILDINGS.4. EFFICIENT THERMAL POWER (CHP) STATIONS WILL COME INA VARIETY OF SIZES - FITTING THE CELLAR OF A DETACHED HOUSE ORSUPPLYING WHOLE BUILDING COMPLEXES OR APARTMENT BLOCKS WITHPOWER AND WARMTH WITHOUT LOSSES IN TRANSMISSION.5. CLEAN ELECTRICITY FOR THE CITIES WILL ALSO COME FROM FARTHERAFIELD. OFFSHORE WIND PARKS AND SOLAR POWER STATIONS INDESERTS HAVE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL.29

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | THE “3 STEP IMPLEMENTATION”2Renewable heating In the heat supply sector, the contribution ofrenewable energy will increase significantly. Growth rates areexpected to be similar to those of the renewable electricity sector.Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient moderntechnologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors andgeothermal. By 2050, renewable energy technologies will satisfythe major part of heating and cooling demand.Transport Before new technologies including hybrid and electriccars can seriously enter the transport sector, the other electricityusers need to make large efficiency gains. In this study, biomassis primarily committed to stationary applications; the use ofbiofuels for transport is limited by the availability of sustainablygrown biomass and only for heavy duty vehicles, ships andaviation. In contrast to previous versions of Energy [R]evolutionscenarios, biofuels are entirely banned now for the use in privatecars. 18 Electric vehicles will therefore play an even moreimportant role in improving energy efficiency in transport andsubstituting for fossil fuels.Overall, to achieve an economically attractive growth ofrenewable energy sources, requires a balanced and timelymobilisation of all technologies. Such a mobilisation depends onthe resource availability, cost reduction potential andtechnological maturity. And alongside technology drivensolutions, lifestyle changes - like simply driving less and usingmore public transport – have a huge potential to reducegreenhouse gas emissions.New business model The Energy [R]evolution scenario will alsoresult in a dramatic change in the business model of energycompanies, utilities, fuel suppliers and the manufacturers ofenergy technologies. Decentralised energy generation and largesolar or offshore wind arrays which operate in remote areas,without the need for any fuel, will have a profound impact on theway utilities operate in 2020 and beyond.Today’s power supply value chain is broken down into clearlydefined players but a global renewable power supply willinevitably change this division of roles and responsibilities. Thefollowing table provides an overview of how the value chain wouldchange in a revolutionised energy mix.The current model is a relatively small number of large powerplants that are owned and operated by utilities or theirsubsidiaries, generating electricity for the population. Under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario, around 60 to 70% of electricitywill be made by small but numerous decentralised power plants.Ownership will shift towards more private investors, themanufacturer of renewable energy technologies and EPCtable 2.1: power plant value chainTASK& MARKET PLAYERPROJECTDEVELOPMENTMANUFACTURE OFGEN. EQUIPMENTINSTALLATIONOWNER OF THEPOWER PLANTOPERATION &MAINTENANCEFUEL SUPPLYTRANSMISSION TOTHE CUSTOMERCURRENT SITUATIONPOWER MARKETCoal, gas and nuclear power stations are larger than renewables. Averagenumber of power plants needed per 1 GW installed only 1 or 2 projects.Relatively view power plants owned andsometimes operated by utilities.A few large multinational Grid operation will moveoil, gas and coal mining towards state controlledcompanies dominate: grid companies ortoday approx 75-80% communities due toof power plants need liberalisation.fuel supply.Market playerPower plantengineering companiesUtilitiesMining companiesGrid operator2020 AND BEYONDPOWER MARKETMarket playerRenewable power plantengineering companiesPrivate & public investorsGrid operatorRenewable power plants are small in capacity, the amount of projectsfor project development, manufacturers and installation companies perinstalled 1 GW is bigger by an order of magnitude. In the case of PVit could be up to 500 projects, for onshore wind still 25 to 50 projects.Many projects will be owned by private householdsor investment banks in the case of larger projects.By 2050 almost all powergeneration technologies -accept biomass - willoperate without the needof fuel supply.Grid operation will movetowards state controlledgrid companies orcommunities due toliberalisation.reference18 SEE CHAPTER 11.30

companies (engineering, procurement and construction) awayfrom centralised utilities. In turn, the value chain for powercompanies will shift towards project development, equipmentmanufacturing and operation and maintenance.Simply selling electricity to customers will play a smaller role, asthe power companies of the future will deliver a total power plantand the required IT services to the customer, not just electricity.They will therefore move towards becoming service suppliers forthe customer. The majority of power plants will also not requireany fuel supply, so mining and other fuel production companieswill lose their strategic importance.The future pattern under the Energy [R]evolution will see moreand more renewable energy companies, such as wind turbinebox 2.1: about sustainable energy for allFrom the IEA Report “Energy for All – financing access forthe poor. 19The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO)has focused attention on modern energy access for a decade. In aspecial early excerpt of World Energy Outlook 2011, the IEAtackled the critical issue of financing the delivery of universalaccess to modern forms of energy. The report recognised thatenergy access can create a better life for individuals, alleviatingpoverty and improving health, literacy and equity.Globally, over 1.3 billion people, more than a quarter of the world’spopulation are without access to electricity and 2.7 billion peopleare without clean cooking facilities. More than 95% of thesepeople are either in sub‐Saharan Africa or developing Asia and84% are in rural areas. In 2009, the IEA estimates that $9.1billion was invested globally in extending access to modern energyservices and will average $14 billion per year, projected between2010 and 2030, mostly devoted to new on‐grid electricityconnections in urban areas. Even with this there will be one billionpeople without electricity and 2.7 billion people without cleancooking facilities in 2030. To provide universal modern energyaccess by 2030 the IEA forecasts that annual average investmentneeds would need to be $48 billion per year, more than five‐timesthe level of 2009, and most in sub‐Saharan Africa.The IEA puts forwards five actions to achieve universal, modernenergy access:1. Adopt a clear and consistent statement that modernenergy access is a political priority and that policies andfunding will be reoriented accordingly. Nationalgovernments need to adopt a specific energy access target,allocate funds and define their delivery strategy.2. Mobilise additional investment in universal access, above the$14 billion per year assumed in our central scenario, of $34image A MAINTENANCE WORKER MARKS A BLADEOF A WINDMILL AT GUAZHOU WIND FARM NEARYUMEN IN GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA.manufacturers becoming involved in project development,installation and operation and maintenance, whilst utilities willlose their status. Those traditional energy supply companies whichdo not move towards renewable project development will eitherlose market share or drop out of the market completely.Access to energy in 2012: The International Year of Sustainable Energyfor All In December 2010, the United Nations General Assemblydeclared 2012 the International Year of Sustainable Energy for All,recognizing that “…access to modern affordable energy services indeveloping countries is essential for the achievement of theinternationally agreed development goals, including the MillenniumDevelopment Goals, and sustainable development, which would helpto reduce poverty and to improve the conditions and standard ofliving for the majority of the world’s population.”billion per year - equivalent to around 3% of globalinvestment in energy infrastructure over the period to 2030.All sources and forms of investment have their part to play,reflecting the varying risks and returns of particular solutions.3. Overcome the significant banners to large growth in privatesector investment. National governments need to adoptstrong governance and regulatory frameworks and invest ininternal capacity building. The public sector, includingmultilateral and bilateral institutions, needs to use its toolsto leverage greater private sector investment where thebusiness case is marginal and encourage the developmentof repeatable business models. When used, public subsidiesmust be well targeted to reach the poorest.4. Concentrate a large part of multilateral and bilateraldirect funding on those difficult areas of access which donot initially offer an adequate commercial return. Provisionof end‐user finance is required to overcome the barrier ofthe initial capitals. Local banks and microfinancearrangements can support the creation of local networksand the necessary capacity in energy sector activity.5. Collection of robust, regular and comprehensive data toquantify the outstanding challenge and monitor progresstowards its elimination. International concern about theissue of energy access is growing.Discussions at the Energy for All Conference in Oslo, Norway(October 2011) and the COP17 in Durban, South Africa(December 2011) have established the link between energyaccess, climate change and development which can now beaddressed at the United Nations Conference on SustainableDevelopment (Rio+20) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in June 2012.That conference will be the occasion for commitments tospecific action to achieve sustainable development, includinguniversal energy access, since as currently the United NationsMillennium Development Goals do not include specific targetsin relation to access to electricity or to clean cooking facilities.© GP/MARKEL REDONDO2the energy [r]evolution concept | THE “3 STEP IMPLEMENTATION”reference19 SPECIAL EXCERPT OF THE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2011.31

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | THE “3 STEP IMPLEMENTATION”2The General Assembly’s Resolution 65/151 called on UNSecretary-General Ban Ki-Moon to organize and coordinateactivities during the Year in order to “increase awareness of theimportance of addressing energy issues”, including access to andsustainability of affordable energy and energy efficiency at local,national, regional and international levels.In response, the new global initiative, Sustainable Energy for All,launched at the General Assembly in September 2011, along witha High Level Group, is designed to mobilise action fromgovernments, the private sector and civil society globally. Theinitiative has three inter-linked objectives: universal access tomodern energy services, improved rates of energy efficiency, andexpanded use of renewable energy sources.The role of sustainable, clean renewable energy To achieve thedramatic emissions cuts needed to avoid climate change, around80% in OECD countries by 2050, will require a massive uptake ofrenewable energy. The targets for renewable energy must be greatlyexpanded in industrialised countries both to substitute for fossilfuel and nuclear generation and to create the necessary economiesof scale necessary for global expansion. Within the Energy[R]evolution scenario we assume that modern renewable energysources, such as solar collectors, solar cookers and modern formsof bio energy, will replace inefficient, traditional biomass use.Step 3: optimised integration – renewables 24/7 A completetransformation of the energy system will be necessary toaccommodate the significantly higher shares of renewable energyexpected under the Energy [R]evolution scenario. The grid networkof cables and sub-stations that brings electricity to our homes andfactories was designed for large, centralised generators running athuge loads, providing ‘baseload’ power. Until now, renewableenergy has been seen as an additional slice of the energy mix andhad had adapt to the grid’s operating conditions. If the Energy[R]evolution scenario is to be realised, this will have to change.Because renewable energy relies mostly on natural resources,which are not available at all times, some critics say this makes itunsuitable for large portions of energy demand. Existing practicein a number of countries has already shown that this is false.Clever technologies can track and manage energy use patterns,provide flexible power that follows demand through the day, usebetter storage options and group customers together to form‘virtual batteries’. With current and emerging solutions we cansecure the renewable energy future needed to avert catastrophicclimate change. Renewable energy 24/7 is technically andeconomically possible, it just needs the right policy and thecommercial investment to get things moving and ‘keep the lightson’. 20 Further adaptations to how the grid network operates willallow integration of even larger quantities of renewable capacity.Changes to the grid required to support decentralised energy Mostgrids around the world have large power plants in the middleconnected by high voltage alternating current (AC) power linesand smaller distribution network carries power to finalconsumers. The centralised grid model was designed and plannedup to 60 years ago, and brought great benefit to cities and ruralareas. However the system is very wasteful, with much energylost in transition. A system based on renewable energy, requiringlots of smaller generators, some with variable amounts of poweroutput will need a new architecture.The overall concept of a smart grid is one that balances fluctuationsin energy demand and supply to share out power effectively amongusers. New measures to manage demand, forecasting the weatherfor storage needs, plus advanced communication and controltechnologies will help deliver electricity effectively.Technological opportunities Changes to the power system by 2050will create huge business opportunities for the information,communication and technology (ICT) sector. A smart grid haspower supplied from a diverse range of sources and places and itrelies on the gathering and analysis of a lot of data. Smart gridsrequire software, hardware and data networks capable ofdelivering data quickly, and of responding to the information thatthey contain. Several important ICT players are racing tosmarten up energy grids across the globe and hundreds ofcompanies could be involved with smart grids.There are numerous IT companies offering products and servicesto manage and monitor energy. These include IBM, Fujitsu,Google, Microsoft and Cisco. These and other giants of thetelecommunications and technology sector have the power tomake the grid smarter, and to move us faster towards a cleanenergy future. Greenpeace has initiated the ‘Cool IT’ campaign toput pressure on the IT sector to make such technologies a reality.2.3 the new electricity gridAll over the developed world, the grids were built with large fossilfuel power plants in the middle and high voltage alternatingcurrent (AC) transmission power lines connecting up to the areaswhere the power is used. A lower voltage distribution networkthen carries the current to the final consumers.In the future power generators will be smaller and distributedthroughout the grid, which is more efficient and avoids energy lossesduring long distance transmission. There will also be some concentratedsupply from large renewable power plants. Examples of the largegenerators of the future are massive wind farms already being built inEurope’s North Sea and plans for large areas of concentrating solarmirrors to generate energy in Southern Europe or Northern Africa.The challenge ahead will require an innovative power systemarchitecture involving both new technologies and new ways ofmanaging the network to ensure a balance between fluctuationsin energy demand and supply. The key elements of this new powersystem architecture are micro grids, smart grids and an efficientlarge scale super grid. The three types of system will support andinterconnect with each other (see Figure 2.3).reference20 THE ARGUMENTS AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS OUTLINED HERE ARE EXPLAINED IN MORE DETAIL INTHE EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY COUNCIL/GREENPEACE REPORT, “[R]ENEWABLES 24/7:INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED TO SAVE THE CLIMATE”, NOVEMBER 2009.32

image AERIAL VIEW OF THE WORLD’S LARGESTOFFSHORE WINDPARK IN THE NORTH SEA HORNSREV IN ESBJERG, DENMARK.© GP/MARTIN ZAKORA2box 2.2: definitions and technical termsThe electricity ‘grid’ is the collective name for all the cables,transformers and infrastructure that transport electricity frompower plants to the end users.Micro grids supply local power needs. Monitoring and controlinfrastructure are embedded inside distribution networks anduse local energy generation resources. An example microgridwould be a combination of solar panels, micro turbines, fuelcells, energy efficiency and information/communicationtechnology to manage the load, for example on an island orsmall rural town.Smart grids balance demand out over a region. A ‘smart’electricity grid connects decentralised renewable energysources and cogeneration and distributes power highlyefficiently. Advanced types of control and managementtechnologies for the electricity grid can also make it run moreefficiently overall. For example, smart electricity meters showreal-time use and costs, allowing big energy users to switch offor down on a signal from the grid operator, and avoid highpower prices.Super grids transport large energy loads between regions. Thisrefers to interconnection - typically based on HVDCtechnology - between countries or areas with large supply andlarge demand. An example would be the interconnection of allthe large renewable based power plants in the North Sea or aconnection between Southern Europe and Africa whererenewable energy could be exported to bigger cities and towns,from places with large locally available resources.Baseload is the concept that there must be a minimum,uninterruptible supply of power to the grid at all times,traditionally provided by coal or nuclear power. The Energy[R]evolution challenges this, and instead relies on a variety of‘flexible’ energy sources combined over a large area to meetdemand. Currently, ‘baseload’ is part of the business model fornuclear and coal power plants, where the operator can produceelectricity around the clock whether or not it is actually needed.Constrained power refers to when there is a local oversupply offree wind and solar power which has to be shut down, eitherbecause it cannot be transferred to other locations (bottlenecks)or because it is competing with inflexible nuclear or coal powerthat has been given priority access to the grid. Constrained poweris also available for storage once the technology is available.Variable power is electricity produced by wind or solar powerdepending on the weather. Some technologies can makevariable power dispatchable, eg by adding heat storage toconcentrated solar power.Dispatchable is a type of power that can be stored and‘dispatched’ when needed to areas of high demand, e.g. gasfiredpower plants or hydro power plants.Interconnector is a transmission line that connects different partsof the electricity grid.Load curve is the typical pattern of electricitythrough the day, which has a predictable peak and trough that canbe anticipated from outside temperatures and historical data.Node is a point of connection in the electricity grid betweenregions or countries, where there can be local supply feedinginto the grid as well.the energy [r]evolution concept | THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRID2.3.1 hybrid systemsWhile grid in the developed world supply power to nearly 100%of the population, many rural areas in the developing world relyon unreliable grids or polluting electricity, for example fromstand-alone diesel generators. This is also very expensive forsmall communities.The standard approach of extending the grid used in developedcountries is often not economic in rural areas of developingcountries where potential electricity is low and there are longdistances to existing grid.Electrification based on renewable energy systems with a hybridmix of sources is often the cheapest as well as the least pollutingalternative. Hybrid systems connect renewable energy sourcessuch as wind and solar power to a battery via a charge controller,which stores the generated electricity and acts as the main powersupply. Back-up supply typically comes from a fossil fuel, forexample in a wind-battery-diesel or PV-battery-diesel system.Such decentralised hybrid systems are more reliable, consumerscan be involved in their operation through innovative technologiesand they can make best use of local resources. They are also lessdependent on large scale infrastructure and can be constructedand connected faster, especially in rural areas.Finance can often be an issue for relatively poor ruralcommunities wanting to install such hybrid renewable systems.Greenpeace’s funding model, the Feed-in Tariff SupportMechanism (FTSM), discussed in Chapter 1 allows project to bebundled together so the financial package is large enough to beeligible for international investment support. In the Pacific region,for example, power generation projects from a number of islands,an entire island state such as the Maldives or even several islandstates could be bundled into one project package. This wouldmake it large enough for funding as an international project byOECD countries. In terms of project planning, it is essential thatthe communities themselves are directly involved in the process.33

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRID22.3.2 smart gridsThe task of integrating renewable energy technologies intoexisting power systems is similar in all power systems around theworld, whether they are large centralised networks or islandsystems. The main aim of power system operation is to balanceelectricity consumption and generation.Thorough forward planning is needed to ensure that the availableproduction can match demand at all times. In addition tobalancing supply and demand, the power system must also beable to:• Fulfil defined power quality standards – voltage/frequency -which may require additional technical equipment, and• Survive extreme situations such as sudden interruptions ofsupply, for example from a fault at a generation unit or abreakdown in the transmission system.Integrating renewable energy by using a smart grid means movingaway from the concept of baseload power towards a mix offlexible and dispatch able renewable power plants. In a smart grida portfolio of flexible energy providers can follow the load duringboth day and night (for example, solar plus gas, geothermal, windand demand management) without blackouts.What is a smart grid? Until now renewable power technologydevelopment has put most effort into adjusting its technicalperformance to the needs of the existing network, mainly bycomplying with grid codes, which cover such issues as voltagefrequency and reactive power. However, the time has come for thepower systems themselves to better adjust to the needs ofvariable generation. This means that they must become flexibleenough to follow the fluctuations of variable renewable power, forexample by adjusting demand via demand-side managementand/or deploying storage systems.The future power system will consist of tens of thousands ofgeneration units such as solar panels, wind turbines and otherrenewable generation, partly distributed in the distributionnetwork, partly concentrated in large power plants such asoffshore wind parks. The power system planning will becomemore complex due to the larger number of generation assets andthe significant share of variable power generation causingconstantly changing power flows.Smart grid technology will be needed to support power systemplanning. This will operate by actively supporting day-aheadforecasts and system balancing, providing real-time informationabout the status of the network and the generation units, incombination with weather forecasts. It will also play a significantrole in making sure systems can meet the peak demand and makebetter use of distribution and transmission assets, thereby keepingthe need for network extensions to the absolute minimum.references21 SEE ALSO ECOGRID PHASE 1 SUMMARY REPORT, AVAILABLE AT:HTTP://WWW.ENERGINET.DK/NR/RDONLYRES/8B1A4A06-CBA3-41DA-9402-B56C2C288FB0/0/ECOGRIDDK_PHASE1_SUMMARYREPORT.PDF.22 SEE ALSO HTTP://WWW.KOMBIKRAFTWERK.DE/INDEX.PHP?ID=27.23 SEE ALSO HTTP://WWW.SOLARSERVER.DE/SOLARMAGAZIN/ANLAGEJANUAR2008_E.HTML.34To develop a power system based almost entirely on renewableenergy sources requires a completely new power systemarchitecture, which will need substantial amounts of further workto fully emerge. 21 Figure 2.3 shows a simplified graphicrepresentation of the key elements in future renewable-basedpower systems using smart grid technology.A range of options are available to enable the large-scaleintegration of variable renewable energy resources into the powersupply system. Some features of smart grids could be:Managing level and timing of demand for electricity. Changes topricing schemes can give consumers financial incentives to reduce orshut off their supply at periods of peak consumption, as system thatis already used for some large industrial customers. A Norwegianpower supplier even involves private household customers by sendingthem a text message with a signal to shut down. Each householdcan decide in advance whether or not they want to participate. InGermany, experiments are being conducted with time flexible tariffsso that washing machines operate at night and refrigerators turn offtemporarily during periods of high demand.Advances in communications technology. In Italy, for example, 30million ‘smart meters’ have been installed to allow remote meterreading and control of consumer and service information. Manyhousehold electrical products or systems, such as refrigerators,dishwashers, washing machines, storage heaters, water pumps andair conditioning, can be managed either by temporary shut-off or byrescheduling their time of operation, thus freeing up electricity loadfor other uses and dovetailing it with variations in renewable supply.Creating Virtual Power Plants (VPP). Virtual power plantsinterconnect a range of real power plants (for example solar, windand hydro) as well as storage options distributed in the powersystem using information technology. A real life example of a VPPis the Combined Renewable Energy Power Plant developed bythree German companies. 22 This system interconnects and controls11 wind power plants, 20 solar power plants, four CHP plantsbased on biomass and a pumped storage unit, all geographicallyspread around Germany. The VPP monitors (and anticipatesthrough weather forecasts) when the wind turbines and solarmodules will be generating electricity. Biogas and pumped storageunits are used to make up the difference, either deliveringelectricity as needed in order to balance short term fluctuations ortemporarily storing it. 23 Together the combination ensuressufficient electricity supply to cover demand.Electricity storage options. Pumped storage is the mostestablished technology for storing energy from a type ofhydroelectric power station. Water is pumped from a lowerelevation reservoir to a higher elevation during times of low cost,off-peak electricity. During periods of high electrical demand, thestored water is released through turbines. Taking into accountevaporation losses from the exposed water surface and conversionlosses, roughly 70 to 85% of the electrical energy used to pumpthe water into the elevated reservoir can be regained when it isreleased. Pumped storage plants can also respond to changes inthe power system load demand within seconds. Pumped storagehas been successfully used for many decades all over the world.

image A WORKER ASSEMBLES WIND TURBINE ROTORSAT GANSU JINFENG WIND POWER EQUIPMENT CO. LTD.IN JIUQUAN, GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA.© GP/MARKEL REDONDOfigure 2.3: the smart-grid vision for the energy [r]evolution2A VISION FOR THE FUTURE – A NETWORK OF INTEGRATED MICROGRIDS THAT CAN MONITOR AND HEAL ITSELF.CENTRAL POWER PLANTINDUSTRIAL PLANTWIND FARMthe energy [r]evolution concept | THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRIDSMART HOMESOFFICES WITHSOLAR PANELSISOLATED MICROGRIDPROCESSORSEXECUTE SPECIAL PROTECTIONSCHEMES IN MICROSECONDSSMART APPLIANCESCAN SHUT OFF IN RESPONSETO FREQUENCY FLUCTUATIONSGENERATORSENERGY FROM SMALL GENERATORSAND SOLAR PANELS CAN REDUCEOVERALL DEMAND ON THE GRIDDISTURBANCE IN THE GRIDSENSORS (ON ‘STANDBY’)– DETECT FLUCTUATIONS ANDDISTURBANCES, AND CAN SIGNALFOR AREAS TO BE ISOLATEDDEMAND MANAGEMENTUSE CAN BE SHIFTED TO OFF-PEAKTIMES TO SAVE MONEYSTORAGE ENERGY GENERATED ATOFF-PEAK TIMES COULD BE STOREDIN BATTERIES FOR LATER USESENSORS (‘ACTIVATED’)– DETECT FLUCTUATIONS ANDDISTURBANCES, AND CAN SIGNALFOR AREAS TO BE ISOLATED35

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRID2In 2007 the European Union had 38 GW of pumped storagecapacity, representing 5% of total electrical capacity.Vehicle-to-Grid. Another way of ‘storing’ electricity is to use it todirectly meet the demand from electric vehicles. The number ofelectric cars and trucks is expected to increase dramatically underthe Energy [R]evolution scenario. The Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G)concept, for example, is based on electric cars equipped withbatteries that can be charged during times when there is surplusrenewable generation and then discharged to supply peaking capacityor ancillary services to the power system while they are parked.During peak demand times cars are often parked close to main loadcentres, for instance outside factories, so there would be no networkissues. Within the V2G concept a Virtual Power Plant would be builtusing ICT technology to aggregate the electric cars participating inthe relevant electricity markets and to meter the charging/dechargingactivities. In 2009 the EDISON demonstration project waslaunched to develop and test the infrastructure for integratingelectric cars into the power system of the Danish island of Bornholm.2.3.3 the super gridGreenpeace simulation studies Renewables 24/7 (2010) and Battleof the Grids (2011) have shown that extreme situations with lowsolar radiation and little wind in many parts of Europe are notfrequent, but they can occur. The power system, even with massiveamounts of renewable energy, must be adequately designed to copewith such an event. A key element in achieving this is through theconstruction of new onshore and offshore super grids.The Energy [R]evolution scenario assumes that about 70% of allgeneration is distributed and located close to load centres. Theremaining 30% will be large scale renewable generation such aslarge offshore wind farms or large arrays of concentrating solarpower plants. A North Sea offshore super grid, for example, wouldenable the efficient integration of renewable energy into the powersystem across the whole North Sea region, linking the UK, France,Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway. Byaggregating power generation from wind farms spread across thewhole area, periods of very low or very high power flows would bereduced to a negligible amount. A dip in wind power generation inone area would be balanced by higher production in another area,even hundreds of kilometres away. Over a year, an installedoffshore wind power capacity of 68.4 GW in the North Sea wouldbe able to generate an estimated 247 TWh of electricity. 242.3.4 baseload blocks progressGenerally, coal and nuclear plants run as so-called base load,meaning they work most of the time at maximum capacityregardless of how much electricity consumers need. Whendemand is low the power is wasted. When demand is highadditional gas is needed as a backup.However, coal and nuclear cannot be turned down on windy days sowind turbines will get switched off to prevent overloading the system.references24 GREENPEACE REPORT, ‘NORTH SEA ELECTRICITY GRID [R]EVOLUTION’, SEPTEMBER 2008.25 BATTLE OF THE GRIDS, GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, FEBRUARY 2011.36box 2.3: do we need baseload power plants? 25Power from some renewable plants, such as wind and solar,varies during the day and week. Some see this as aninsurmountable problem, because up until now we haverelied on coal or nuclear to provide a fixed amount ofpower at all times. In current policy-making there is astruggle to determine which type of infrastructure ormanagement we choose and which energy mix to favour aswe move away from a polluting, carbon intensive energysystem. Some important facts include:• electricity demand fluctuates in a predictable way.• smart management can work with big electricity users, sotheir peak demand moves to a different part of the day,evening out the load on the overall system.• electricity from renewable sources can be stored and‘dispatched’ to where it is needed in a number of ways,using advanced grid technologies.Wind-rich countries in Europe are already experiencingconflict between renewable and conventional power. In Spain,where a lot of wind and solar is now connected to the grid,gas power is stepping in to bridge the gap between demandand supply. This is because gas plants can be switched off orrun at reduced power, for example when there is lowelectricity demand or high wind production. As we move to amostly renewable electricity sector, gas plants will be neededas backup for times of high demand and low renewableproduction. Effectively, a kWh from a wind turbine displacesa kWh from a gas plant, avoiding carbon dioxide emissions.Renewable electricity sources such as thermal solar plants(CSP), geothermal, hydro, biomass and biogas can graduallyphase out the need for natural gas. (See Case Studies formore). The gas plants and pipelines would then progressivelybe converted for transporting biogas.The recent global economic crisis triggered drop in energy demandand revealed system conflict between inflexible base load power,especially nuclear, and variable renewable sources, especially windpower, with wind operators told to shut off their generators. InNorthern Spain and Germany, this uncomfortable mix is alreadyexposing the limits of the grid capacity. If Europe continues tosupport nuclear and coal power alongside a growth in renewables,clashes will occur more and more, creating a bloated, inefficient grid.Despite the disadvantages stacked against renewable energy it hasbegun to challenge the profitability of older plants. Afterconstruction costs, a wind turbine is generating electricity almostfor free and without burning any fuel. Meanwhile, coal and nuclearplants use expensive and highly polluting fuels. Even wherenuclear plants are kept running and wind turbines are switchedoff, conventional energy providers are concerned. Like anycommodity, oversupply reduces price across the market. In energymarkets, this affects nuclear and coal too. We can expect moreintense conflicts over access to the grids over the coming years.

image GREENPEACE OPENS A SOLAR ENERGYWORKSHOP IN BOMA. A MOBILE PHONE GETSCHARGED BY A SOLAR ENERGY POWERED CHARGER.© GP/PHILIP REYNAERSfigure 2.4: a typical load curve throughout europe,shows electricity use peaking and falling on a daily basisLoad (MW/GW)Time (hours/days)DEMAND2the energy [r]evolution concept | THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRIDfigure 2.5: the evolving approach to gridsCurrent supply systemLOAD CURVE• Low shares of fluctuating renewable energy• The ‘base load’ power is a solid bar at the bottom of the graph.• Renewable energy forms a ‘variable’ layer because sun and windlevels changes throughout the day.• Gas and hydro power which can be switched on and off inresponse to demand. This is sustainable using weatherforecasting and clever grid management.• With this arrangement there is room for about 25 percentvariable renewable energy.To combat climate change much more than 25 percent renewableelectricity is needed.GW0h 6h 12h 18h 24hTime of day (hour)‘FLEXIBLE POWER’.GRID OPERATORCOMBINES GAS& HYDROFLUCTUATINGRE POWERBASELOADSupply system with more than 25 percent fluctuating renewableenergy > base load priority• This approach adds renewable energy but gives priority tobase load.• As renewable energy supplies grow they will exceed the demandat some times of the day, creating surplus power.• To a point, this can be overcome by storing power, movingpower between areas, shifting demand during the day orshutting down the renewable generators at peak times.GWLOAD CURVESURPLUS RE- SEE FOLLOWINGOPTIONSBASELOADPRIORITY: NOCURTAILMENTOF COAL ORNUCLEAR POWERBASELOADDoes not work when renewables exceed 50 percent of the mix, andcan not provide renewable energy as 90- 100% of the mix.0h 6h 12h 18h 24hTime of day (hour)37

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRID2figure 2.5: the evolving approach to grids continuedSupply system with more than 25 percent fluctuating renewableenergy – renewable energy priority• This approach adds renewables but gives priority to clean energy.• If renewable energy is given priority to the grid, it “cuts into”the base load power.• Theoretically, nuclear and coal need to run at reduced capacity orbe entirely turned off in peak supply times (very sunny or windy).• There are technical and safety limitations to the speed, scaleand frequency of changes in power output for nuclear and coal-CCS plants.Technically difficult, not a solution.GW0h 6h 12h 18h 24hTime of day (hour)LOAD CURVERE PRIORITY:CURTAILMENT OFBASELOAD POWER- TECHNICALLYDIFFICULT IF NOTIMPOSSIBLEThe solution: an optimised system with over 90% renewableenergy supply• A fully optimised grid, where 100 percent renewables operatewith storage, transmission of electricity to other regions, demandmanagement and curtailment only when required.• Demand management effectively moves the highest peak and‘flattens out’ the curve of electricity use over a day.GWLOAD CURVEWITH NO DSMLOAD CURVE WITH(OPTION 1 & 2)RE POWERIMPORTED FROMOTHER REGIONS &RE POWER FROMSTORAGE PLANTSPVBIOENERGY, HYDRO,CSP & GEOTHERMALWINDSUPPLY- WIND + SOLARWorks!0h 6h 12h 18h 24hTime of day (hour)One of the key conclusions from Greenpeace research is that inthe coming decades, traditional power plants will have less andless space to run in baseload mode. With increasing penetrationof variable generation from wind and photovoltaic in theelectricity grid, the remaining part of the system will have to runin more ‘load following’ mode, filling the immediate gap betweendemand and production. This means the economics of base loadplants like nuclear and coal will change fundamentally as morevariable generation is introduced to the electricity grid.38

image LE NORDAIS WINDMILL PARK, ONE OF THEMOST IMPORTANT IN AMERICA, LOCATED ON THEGASPÈ PENINSULA IN CAP-CHAT, QUEBEC, CANADA.2.4 case study: a year after the german nuclearphase outOn 30 May 2011, the German environment minister, NorbertRöttgen, announced the Germany would close its eight oldestnuclear plants and phase out the remaining nine reactors by2022. The plan is to replace most of the generating capacity ofthese nine reactors with renewables. The experience so far gives areal example of the steps needed for a global Energy[R]evolution at a national scale.2.4.1 target and methodThe German government expects renewables to generate 35% ofGerman electricity by 2020. 26 The German Federal EnvironmentAgency believes that the phase out would be technically feasiblefrom 2017 , requiring only 5 GWh of additional combined heatand-poweror combined cycle gas plant (other than those alreadyunder construction) to meet peak time demand. 272.4.2 carbon dioxide emissions trendsThe Germany energy ambassador, Dr. Georg Maue reported to ameeting in the British Parliament in February 2012 thatGermany was still on track to meet its CO2 reduction targets of40% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels. Figures forGermany’s 2011 greenhouse gas emissions were not available forthis report, although the small growth in use of lignite fuels islikely to have increased emissions in the short term.However, the decision to phase out nuclear energy has renewedthe political pressure to deliver a secure climate-friendly energypolicy and ensure Germany still meets its greenhouse targets. TheEnergiewende (‘energy transition’) measures include € 200billioninvestment in renewable energy over the next decade, a majorpush on energy efficiency and an accelerated roll out ofinfrastructure to support the transition. 28 Germany has alsobecome an advocate for renewables at the European level. 29 Inthe longer-term, by deploying a large amount of renewablecapability Germany should be able to continue reducing itsemissions at this accelerated rate and its improved industrialproduction should make it more viable for other countries todeliver greater and faster emissions reductions.2.4.3 shortfall from first round of closuresThe oldest eight nuclear reactors were closed immediately andbased on figures available it looks like the ‘shortfall’ will becovered by a mix of lower demand, increasing renewable energysupply, and a small part by fossil-fuelled power.In 2011 only 18% of the country’s energy generation came fromnuclear, as shown in Figure 2.7. 30 In the previous year, nuclearenergy’s contribution had already fallen from 22% to 18%,a shortfall covered mostly by renewable electricity whichincreased from 16% to 20% in the same period, while use oflignite (a greenhouse-intensive fossil fuel) increased from 23%to 25% (Figure 2.6).In the first half of 2011, Germany was a net exporter ofelectricity, exporting 29 billion kWh and importing 24 kWh. 31Complete figures for electricity imports and exports in the secondhalf of 2011, once nuclear reactors were decommissioned,however it is known that Germany exported electricity to Franceduring a cold spell in February 2012. 32Inside Germany, the demand for energy is falling. 33 Between 2010and 2011 energy demand dropped by 5%, because the mildweather reduced demand for gas heating. While the Britishgovernment is planning for electricity demand in the UK todouble by 2050, the German government expects a cut of 25%from 2008 levels. 34 Total energy demand is expected to halve overthe same time period.2.4.4 the renewable energy sector in germanyGermany has successfully increased the share of renewableenergy constantly over the last twenty years, and the sector wasemploying over 350,000 employees by the end of 2011. The backbone of this development has been the Renewable Energy Act(Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz – EEG); a feed-in law whichguarantees a fixed tariff per kWh for 20 years. The tariffs aredifferent for each technology and between smaller and larger, toreflect their market penetration rates.© GP2the energy [r]evolution concept | CASE STUDIESreferences26 HTTP://WWW.UMWELTDATEN.DE/PUBLIKATIONEN/FPDF-L/4147.PDF27 HTTP://WWW.UMWELTDATEN.DE/PUBLIKATIONEN/FPDF-L/4147.PDF28 HTTP://WWW.ERNEUERBARE-ENERGIEN.DE/INHALT/47872/3860/29 HTTP://WWW.ERNEUERBARE-ENERGIEN.DE/INHALT/48192/3860/30 THE GERMAN ASSOCIATION OF ENERGY AND WATER INDUSTRIES (BDEW), 16 DECEMBER 2011.HTTP://WWW.BDEW.DE/INTERNET.NSF/ID/EN_?OPEN&CCM=90001002001031 HTTP://WWW.BDEW.DE/INTERNET.NSF/ID/8EF9E5927BDAAE28C12579260029ED3B/$FILE/110912%20RICHTIGSTELLUNG%20IMPORT-EXPORT-ZAHLEN_ENGLISCH.PDF32 HTTP://WWW.REUTERS.COM/ARTICLE/2012/02/14/EUROPE-POWER-SUPPLY-IDUSL5E8DD8702012021433 HTTP://WWW.AG-ENERGIEBILANZEN.DE/COMPONENTEN/DOWNLOAD.PHP?FILEDATA=1329148695.PDF&FILENAME=AGEB_PRESSEDIENST_09_2011EN.PDF&MIMETYPE=APPLICATION/PDF34 HTTP://WWW.BMU.DE/FILES/ENGLISH/PDF/APPLICATION/PDF/ENERGIEKONZEPT_BUNDESREGIERUNG_EN.PDF(PAGE 5)39

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | CASE STUDIES2figure 2.6: renewable energy sources as a share of energy supply in germanyShare in [%]40353025201510507.8Share of RES in totalelectricity consumptionminimum 35.0 a 10.0 a, b 2002•• 2007TARGET 2020200810.47.8Gross final energy18.0 a, b14.0 a Transport sector12.24.3Share of RES in totalenergy consumptionfor heat0.95.6Share of RES in fuelconsumption for roadtraffic in transportsector b4.5Share of RES in totalfinal energyconsumption(electricity, heat, fuels)3.210.9Share of RES in totalprimary energyconsumption csourcea TARGETS OF THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ACT (EEG). RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES HEAT ACT (EEWärmeG). EU-DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC.b TOTAL CONSUMPTION OF ENGINE FUELS, EXCLUDING FUEL IN AIR TRAFFIC.c CALCULATED USING EFFICIENCY METHOD; SOURCE: WORKING GROUP ON ENERGY BALANCES e.V. (AGEB); RES: RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES; SOURCE: BMU-KI III 1 ACCORDING TOWORKING GROUP ON RENEWABLE ENERGY-STATISTICS (AGEE-STAT); AS AT: MARCH 2012; ALL FIGURES PROVISIONAL.figure 2.7: renewable energy sources in total finalenergy consumption in germany 2011/2010252.4.5 the renewable energy sector in germanyThe German government agreed on short, medium and long term– binding - targets for renewable, energy efficiency andgreenhouse gas reduction.Share in [%]2015101.95.53.16.10.40.40.50.42.4.6 the renewable energy sector in germanyThe graph below shows where the nuclear power stations arelocated and when they will be shut down. The last nuclear reactorwill be closed down in 2022.2.4.7 no ‘blackouts’506.29.53.4 3.22011(20.0%)Electricity a2010(17.1%)7.6• HYDROPOWER2010(10.2%)9.55.820112010(10.4%) (5.8%)Heat a•WIND ENERGY5.62011(5.6%)Biogenic fuelsThe nuclear industry has implied there would be a “black-out” inwinter 2011 - 2012, or that Germany would need to importelectricity from neighbouring countries, when the first set ofreactors were closed. Neither event happened, and Germanyactually remained a net- export of electricity during the firstwinter. The table below shows the electricity flow over the borders.BIOMASS•• PHOTOVOLTAICSSOLAR THERMAL ENERGY GEOTHERMAL ENERGYBIOGENIC FUELSsourcea BIOMASS: SOLID AND LIQUID BIOMASS, BIOGAS, SEWAGE AND LANDFILL GAS, BIOGENIC SHARE OFWASTE; ELECTRICITY FROM GEOTHERMAL ENERGY NOT PRESENTED DUE TO NEGLIBLE QUANTITIESPRODUCED; DEVIATIONS IN THE TOTALS ARE DUE TO ROUNDING; SOURCE: BMU-KI III 1 ACCORDING TOWORKING GROUP ON RENEWABLE ENERGY-STATISTICS (AGEE-STAT); AS AT: MARCH 2012; ALL FIGURESPROVISIONAL.40

table 2.2: german government short, medium and long term binding targets2020203020402040CLIMATEGREENHOUSEGASES (VS 1990)- 40%- 55%- 70%- 85-95%SHARE OFELECTRICITY35%50%65%80%figure 2.8: phase out of nuclear energyEFFICIENCYOVERALL SHARE(Gross final energyconsumption)18%30%45%60%image A COW IN FRONT OF A BIOREACTOR IN THEBIOENERGY VILLAGE OF JUEHNDE. IT IS THE FIRSTCOMMUNITY IN GERMANY THAT PRODUCES ALL OFITS ENERGY NEEDED FOR HEATING ANDELECTRICITY, WITH CO2 NEUTRAL BIOMASS.PRIMARYENERGYCONSUMPTION-20%-50%RENEWABLE ENERGIESENERGYPRODUCTIVITYIncrease to2.1% annumBUILDINGMODERNISATIONDouble the rate1%-2%© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP2the energy [r]evolution concept | CASE STUDIES2011 BRUNSBÜTTEL2011 BROKDORF2011 KRÜMMEL2011 UNTERWESER2011 GROHNDE2022 EMSLAND• Seven oldest plants plusKrümmel: immediatedecommissioning• Gradual phasing out ofnuclear power by 2022• Shutdown years: 2015,2017, 2019, 2021, 20222015 GRAFENRHEINFELD2011/2011 BIBLIS A/B2011/2022 NECKARWESTHEIM 1/22011/2022 ISAR 1/22017/2021 GUNDREMMINGEN B/C2011/2019 PHILIPPSBURG 1/2source UMWELTBUNDESAMT (UBA) 2012, GERMAN MINSTERY FOR ENVIRONMENTfigure 2.9: electricity imports/exports germanyJANUARY TO NOVEMBER 2011. (VOLUME MEASURE INFranceCzech Rep.AustriaDenmarkNetherlandsSwitzerlandSwedenLuxembourgPolandNET EXPORT IN2011: 3.7 TWH+18,679+7,195-8,922+1,496+5,530-9,563+1,073-4,254-3,8720 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000MillionkWh0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000MillionkWhIMPORT FROM...EXPORT TO...41

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | CASE STUDIES22.5 case study: providing smart energy to Bihar,from the “bottom-up”Over one billion people do not have any access to energy services –most of them are living in rural areas, far away from electricitygrids. Rural electrification is known to bring economic developmentto communities, and the premise of an Energy [R]evolution is tostrive for more equity, not to entrench disadvantage.Greenpeace worked with a community in northern India in thestate of Bihar to see how a real community could create theirown, new electricity services in a sustainable way. The coreconcept was for communities to be able to organise their ownelectricity supply step by step, building up a local micro-grid thatruns on locally available, renewable resources.For example, households may start with only a few hours ofelectricity for lighting each day, but they are on a pathway towardscontinuous supply. As each community builds the infrastructure,they can connect their smart microgrids with each other. Theadvantages are that it is faster than waiting for a centralisedapproach, communities take their electricity supply into their ownhands, and investment stays in the region and creates local jobs.Greenpeace International asked the German/Swedish engineeringcompany energynautics to develop a technical concept. CalledSmart Energy Access, it proposes a proactive, bottom-upapproach to building smart microgrids in developing countries.figure 2.10: development of household demandThey are flexible, close to users so reduce transmission losses,help facilitate integration of renewable energy and educetransmission losses by having generation close to demand.2.5.1 methodologyThe first step is to assess the resources available in the area. InBihar, these are biomass, hydro and solar PV power.The second step is to assess the level of electrical demand for thearea, taking into account that the after initial access, demand willalmost always grow, following the economic growth electricity allows.For Bihar, demand levels shown in Figure 2.10 were considered.The third and final step is to design a system which can serve thedemand using the resources available in the most economicmanner. Key parameters for developing a system are:• That system design uses standard components and is kept modularso that it can be replicated easily for expansion across the region.• An appropriate generation mix which can meet demand 99%of the time at the lowest production cost, e.g. using simulationsoftware such as HOMER. 35 (Figure 2.11)• That electricity can be distributed through a physical networkwithout breaching safe operating limits, and that the quality ofthe supply is adequate for its use, e.g. using a software modelsuch as PowerFactory 36 which tests system behaviour underdifferent operating conditions. (Figure 2.12)ABSOLUTE MINIMUM RURAL HOUSEHOLD URBAN HOUSEHOLDABSOLUTEMINIMUMABSOLUTEMINIMUMABSOLUTEMINIMUMRURALHOUSEHOLDRURALHOUSEHOLDRURALHOUSEHOLDURBANHOUSEHOLDURBANHOUSEHOLDURBANHOUSEHO• 2 x CFL bulbs• 1 x cell phone• 65 kWh/year• Annual peak 30 W• TV/radio• Cooling/heating• 500-1,000 kWh/year• Annual peak 150-500 W• Computers• Household appliances• 1,200 kWh/year• Annual peak 1 kW352007003025150600500Watts2015Watts100Watts4003001055020010001 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2301 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2301 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Hour of dayHour of dayHour of daysource“E[R] CLUSTER FOR A SMART ENERGY ACCESS”, GREENPEACE MAY 2012.42

• A suitable strategy for switching between “grid-connected” and“island” modes, so that the community can connect to theneighbours. There are many options for systems designers bytypically for microgrids in rural parts of developing countries,design simplicity and cost efficiency are more valuable than anexpensive but sophisticated control system.The Smart Energy Access Concept method can be used todevelop roadmap visions and general strategy directions. It mustbe noted however, that detailed resource assessments, costevaluations, demand profile forecasts and power systemsimulations are always required to ensure that a specificmicrogrid design is viable in a specific location.image CONSTRUCTION OF THE OFFSHORE WINDFARMAT MIDDELGRUNDEN NEAR COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.figure 2.11: process overview of supply system designby production optimisationAVAILABLERESOURCESSYSTEMDEMANDGENERATIONCOSTS &OPERATIONCHARACTERISTICSPRODUCTIONOPTIMISATION(HOMER)© PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GPOPTIMAL GENERATIONCAPACITIES THAT MEETDEMAND 99% OF THETIME AT LEAST COST2the energy [r]evolution concept | CASE STUDIESfigure 2.12: screenshot of the PowerFactory grid model.source ENERGYNAUTICSBAR_HSIT_LSIT_HBARSITSISGOB_LGOB_HC-BARExternal gridSIT-BARBAZBAZ-SITSIT-SISSIS_LSIS_HGOBMV_BUSPhotovoltaicsBAZ_LBAZ_HBHACGOBTRFC-BAZBAZ-BHABHA_LBHA_HPLANTRAM2PIPCHA-GOBCHA_HGBiomassGDieselC-RABC-RAMRAM_LRAM_HRAM1-RAM2MAN1-PIPPIP_LPIP_HCHARABRAM1MAN1DHU-CHARAB-DHURAB_LRAB_HRAM1-MAN1MAN1-MAN2DHUMAN2DHU_LDHU_Hsource“E[R] CLUSTER FOR A SMART ENERGY ACCESS”, GREENPEACE MAY 2012.references35 HOMER IS AN ENERGY MODELLING SOFTWARE FOR DESIGNING AND ANALYSING HYBRID POWERSYSTEMS. A TRIAL VERSION OF THE SOFTWARE CAN BE DOWNLOADED FOR FREE AT THE WEBSITE:HTTP://WWW.HOMERENERGY.COM/36 POWERFACTORY IS A POWER SYSTEM SIMULATION SOFTWARE FOR DESIGNING AND ANALYSINGPOWER SYSTEMS. IT IS A LICENSED PRODUCT DEVELOPED BY DIGSILENT.source ENERGYNAUTICSMAN_LMAN_HADMINISTRATIONHEALTH STATIONSCHOOL43

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | CASE STUDIES22.5.2 implementationOnce an electricity service is available, people generally increasetheir consumption. A typical pattern for system growth in India is:• 60kWh per household, covering basic lighting, based on twoenergy-efficient globes per household for a few hours. In Bihar,this can be provided efficiently with a predominantly biomasspoweredsystem, such as the Husk Power Systems 37 , which arealready in use in a number of villages.• 500 kWh per household, provided by a predominantly biomassdieselsystem or a biomass-hydro system (if water is availablenearby). Such systems can be achieved at costs of around14-15 INR/kWh, or 9-10 INR/kWh respectively and will coverdemand from appliances such as fans, television sets andcellular phones• 1,200 kWh per year per household – an urban level ofelectricity consumption – can not be provided by the simplesystems described above. Without hydro power solar PV wouldbe required, and where hydro power is available, diesel wouldneed to be included to cover seasonal flows. These systems canbe achieved also at costs of 14-15 INR/kWh, or9-10 INR/kWh respectively.2.5.3 lessons from the studyWhen considering bottom-up microgrid developments some keypoints for the system’s expansion are:Unit Sizes. From 32 kW and 52 kW for biomass husks to 100kW minimum for an economic micro-hydro system (based on thegeneral flows for the state of Bihar) to a tiny 100-1,000 W forrooftop solar PV. Diesel generators which could operate withbiofuels come in all sizes as they are a more conventionalproduct. The system owner would have to decide how best toexpand the system in a piecewise fashion.Connection to the grid. When eventually connected to State orNational grid, different arrangements mean the community canbe connected or autonomous, depending on the situation.However, expensive and experimental control systems thatmanage complex transitions would be difficult to implement in arural area in a developing country which has financial barriers,lower operational capacity, less market flexibility and regulatoryconsiderations. A simplified design concept limits transitions fromgrid-connected mode to “island mode” when there are centralgrid blackouts, and back again.Capacity and number systems. To replicate this type of microgriddesign across the entire state of Bihar, a rough approximationbased on geographical division indicates that 13,960 villages canbe supplied by a non-hydro no wind system and 3,140 villageswith a hydro system. It is assumed that there is potential for upto 1,900 systems where wind power may be used, and that a totalnumber of 19,000 villages are appropriate to cover all ruralareas in the state of Bihar. With such an expansion strategy, atminimum (corresponding to demand scenario 2) approximately1,700 MW of biomass, 314 MW of hydro and 114 MW of PVpower installations would be required. At the stage whenmicrogrids are fully integrated with the central grid (demandscenario 4), it is expected that at least 4,000 MW of biomass,785 MW of hydro and 10,000 MW of PV power installationswould be required.Distance to the grid. System costs of the optimal microgriddesigns were compared with the cost of extending the grid todetermine the break-even grid distance. Calculations show thebreak-even grid distance for a biomass + solar + hydro + dieselsystem (with or without wind) is approximately 5 kilometres,while for a biomass + solar + diesel system (with or withoutwind) is approximately 10 kilometres.Technology type. The system costs did not vary significantly withthe addition of wind power in the generation mix, or with asignificant reduction in solar PV installation costs because thecosts per installed kilowatt of such systems are already higherthan for the other generators. However, when diesel pricesincrease, the overall system costs also rise, as the cost of energyproduction from the diesel units increase, but the installationcosts are still lower than for solar PV and wind power systems.The case study in Bihar, India, show how microgrids can functionas an off-grid system, incorporate multiple generation sources,adapt to demand growth, and be integrated with the central gridwhile still separate and operate as an island grid if needed.44reference37 WWW.HUSKPOWERSYSTEMS.COM

2.6 greenpeace proposal to support a renewableenergy clusterThis energy cluster system builds upon Greenpeace’s Energy[R]evolution scenario 38 which sets out a global energy pathway thatnot only phases out dirty and dangerous fossil fuels over time tohelp cut CO2 levels, but also brings energy to the 2 billion people onthe planet that currently don’t have access to energy. The mosteffective way to ensure financing for the energy [r]evolution in thepower sector is via Feed-in laws.To plan and invest in an energy infrastructure, whether forconventional or renewable energy, requires secure policyframeworks over decades. The key requirements are:long term security for the investment The investor needs to knowthe pattern of evolution of the energy policy over the entireinvestment period (until the generator is paid off). Investors wanta “good” return of investment and while there is no universaldefinition of a good return, it depends on the long termprofitability of the activity as well as on the inflation rate of thecountry and the short term availability of cash throughout theyear to sustain operations.maximize the leverage of scarce financial resources Access toprivileged credit facilities, under State guarantee, are one of thepossible instruments that can be deployed by governments tomaximise the distribution of scarce public and internationalfinancial resources, leverage on private investment and incentivizedevelopers to rely on technologies that guarantee long termfinancial sustainability.image A TRUCK DROPS ANOTHER LOAD OF WOODCHIPS AT THE BIOMASS POWER PLANT INLELYSTAD, THE NETHERLANDS.long-term security for market conditions The investor needs toknow if the electricity or heat from the power plant can be soldto the market for a price which guarantees a “good” return ofinvestment (ROI). If the ROI is high, the financial sector willinvest; if it is low compared to other investments then financialinstitutions will not invest. Moreover, the supply chain ofproducers needs to enjoy the same level of favourable marketconditions and stability (e.g. agricultural feedstock).transparent planning process A transparent planning process iskey for project developers, so they can sell the planned project toinvestors or utilities. The entire licensing process must be clear,transparent and fast.access to the (micro) grid A fair access to the grid is essential forrenewable power plants. If there is no grid connection availableor if the costs to access the grid are too high the project will notbe built. In order to operate a power plant it is essential forinvestors to know if the asset can reliably deliver and sellelectricity to the grid. If a specific power plant (e.g. a wind farm)does not have priority access to the grid, the operator might haveto switch the plant off when there is an oversupply from otherpower plants or due to a bottleneck situation in the grid. Thisarrangement can add high risk to the project financing and itmay not be financed or it will attract a “risk-premium” whichwill lower the ROI.© GP/BAS BEENTJES2the energy [r]evolution concept | CASE STUDIEStable 2.3: key results for energy [r]evolution village cluster - state of bihar (rural) - employment, environment + fitEMPLOYMENTCO2 SAVINGSFITSCENARIOScenario A: Solar + BiomassAbsolute Minimum (state-wide)Low income demand (state-wide)Medium income demand (state-wide)Urban households (state-wide)GENERATIONJobs1,7785,93614,32616,340GRIDJobs1075153447TOTALJobs1,7886,01114,47916,787SPECIFICt CO2 /GWh1,100TOTALmillion t CO2/a0.86.713.432.0AVERAGE ACCROSSALL TECHNOLOGIESINR/kWh25192519Scenario B: Solar + Small Hydro + BiomassAbsolute Minimum (state-wide)Low income demand (state-wide)Medium income demand (state-wide)Urban households (state-wide)1,7782,78211,74215,770101413435411,7882,92212,08516,3111,1000.86.713.432.025111313Scenario C: Solar + Wind + BiomassAbsolute Minimum (state-wide)Low income demand (state-wide)Medium income demand (state-wide)Urban households (state-wide)1,7785,93614,32621,47010751534101,7886,01114,47921,8801,1000.86.713.432.025192521source“E[R] CLUSTER FOR A SMART ENERGY ACCESS”, GREENPEACE MAY 2012.reference38 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION – A SUSTAINABLE ENERG Y WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2012,GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, AMSTERDAM – THE NETHERLANDS, JUNE 2012.45

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe energy [r]evolution concept | CASE STUDIES22.6.1 a rural feed-in tariff for biharIn order to help implement the Energy [R]evolution clusters inBihar, Greenpeace suggests starting a feed-in regulation for thecluster, which will be partly financed by international funds. Theinternational program should add a CO2 saving premium of 10Indian Rupee (INR) per kWh for 10 years. This premium shouldbe used to help finance the required power generation as well asthe required infrastructure (grids). In the Table 2.2 the CO2savings, rough estimation of employment effects as well as therequired total funding for the CO2 premium for the state of Biharare shown.2.7 energy [r]evolution cluster jobsWhile the employment effect for the operation and maintenance(O&M) for solar photovoltaics (0.4/MW), wind (0.4/MW), hydro(0.2/MW) and bio energy (3.1/MW) are very well documented, 39the employment effect of grid operations and maintenance arenot. Therefore Greenpeace assumed in this calculation that foreach 100 GWh one job will be created. This number is based ongrid operators in Europe and might be too conservative. Howeverit is believed that the majority of the jobs will be created by theO&M of power generation; grid operation may be part of thiswork as well.Due to the high uncertainty of employment effects from gridoperation, these numbers are only indicative.Microgrids can offer reliable and cost competitive electricityservices, providing a viable alternative to the conventionaltopdown approach of extending grid services. The microgridapproach is “smart” because it can facilitate the integration ofrenewable energies, thereby contributing to national renewableenergy (RE) targets. In addition it can reduce transmission lossesby having generation close to demand. Being built from modulardistributed generation units, it can adequately adjust to demandgrowth. It can operate both in island mode and grid-connectedmode, making operation flexible and can also offer grid supportfeatures. This report demonstrates with a case study how thisbottom-up approach with microgrids would work. It focuses ondevelopment in the state of Bihar in India.Step 1: renewable resource assessment The first step to thisapproach is to make an assessment of the resources available inthe area. In the case of Bihar, these are biomass, hydro and solarPV power. While there are no detailed wind measurementsavailable, there are indications that in some areas wind turbinescould operate economically as well.Step 2: demand projections The second step is to assess the levelof electrical demand that will need to be serviced. Once there isaccess to electricity services, demand will almost always grow,accompanying economic growth. For the case of Bihar thefollowing demand levels were considered, which are characterisedby total energy consumption, peak demand and daily load profilesas shown in Figure 2.10.As the proposed bottom-up electrification approach starts on a pervillage basis, a set of village demand profiles is generated based onthese hypothetical household demand profiles. The village demandprofiles also contain assumptions about non-household loads suchas a school, health stations or public lighting.The village-based electricity supply system forms the smallestindividual unit of a supply system. Therefore the matching set ofgeneration assets is also determined on a per-village basis.Step 3: define optimal generation mix The third step in thisapproach is to design a system which can serve the demand usingthe resources available in the most economic manner. At thispoint it is of utmost importance that the system design usesstandard components and is kept modular so that it can bereplicated easily for expansion across the entire state. Indesigning such a system, an appropriate generation mix needs tobe developed, which can meet demand 99% of the time at thelowest production cost. This can be determined using productionsimulation software such as HOMER 40 , which calculates theoptimal generation capacities based on a number of inputs aboutthe installation and operation costs of different types ofgeneration technologies in India.46reference39 INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES (ISF), UNIVERS ITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA: JAYRUTOVITZ, ALISON ATHERTON.40 HOMER IS AN ENERGY MODELLING SOFTWARE FOR DESIGNING AND ANALYSING HYBRIDPOWER SYSTEMS . A TRIAL VERSION OF THE SOFTWARE CAN BE DOWNLOADED FOR FREE ATTHE WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.HOMERENERG Y.COM/

Step 4: network design Once the optimal supply system design isdetermined, it is also important to make sure that such a supplysystem can be distributed through a physical network withoutbreaching safe operating limits, and that the quality of thedelivered electricity is adequate for its use. This can be done bymodelling the physical system using power system simulationsoftware such as PowerFactory. 41 In this way the behaviour of theelectrical system under different operating conditions can betested, for example in steady-state power flow calculations.Figure 2.12 shows a diagram of the village power system modelused in this study.image CHECKING THE SOLAR PANELS ON TOP OF THEGREENPEACE POSITIVE ENERGY TRUCK IN BRAZIL.Step 5: control system considerations The final part of thesystem design involves the development of a suitable strategy forswitching between grid-connected and island modes. Dependingon the quality of service required by the loads in the microgrid,the regulations stipulated in the grid code for operation practices,and number of grid support features desired, several differentdesigns could be developed. For microgrids as part of ruralelectrification efforts in developing countries however, designsimplicity and cost efficiency weighs more than the benefits ofhaving an expensive but sophisticated control system. Through theuse of microgrids, the gap between rural electrification anduniversal electrification with grid expansion can be met, while atthe same time bringing many additional benefits both for theconsumers and grid operators. By developing a system which ismodular and constructed using standard components, it makes iteasier to replicate it across wide areas with varying geographiccharacteristics. The method demonstrated in this report can beused to develop roadmap visions and general strategy directions.It must be noted however, that detailed resource assessments,cost evaluations, demand profile forecasts and power systemsimulations are always required to ensure that a specificmicrogrid design is viable in a specific location.© GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA2the energy [r]evolution concept | CASE STUDIEStable 2.4: village cluster demand overviewDEMAND SCENARIOSSUPPLY NEEDSSCENARIODEMAND PER DAYkWh/dayTOTAL ANNUAL DEMANDkWh/aPEAK DEMANDkW peakTOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITYkWAbsolute Minimum (state-wide)Low income demand (state-wide)Medium income demand (state-wide)Urban households (state-wide)1118811,7544,19240,514321,563640,1171,530,0372299.427155431.5106265800source“E[R] CLUSTER FOR A SMART ENERGY ACCESS”, GREENPEACE MAY 2012.reference41 POWER FACTORY IS A POWER SYSTEM SIMULATION SOFTWARE FOR DESIGNING ANDANALYSING POWER SYSTEMS. IT IS A LICENSED PRODUCT DEVELOPED BY DIGSILENT.47

the energy [r]evolutionRENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECT RENEWABLE ENERGY33implementing PLANNING BASICSFINANCING BASICS“investmentsin renewablesare investmentsin the future.”© NASAimage THE FORESTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN, RONDONIA, BRAZIL, 1975.48

image GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY NEARHOLSSELSNALAR CLOSE TO REYKJAVIK, ICELAND.© GP/NICK COBBING3.1 renewable energy project planning basicsThe renewable energy market works significantly different than thecoal, gas or nuclear power market. The table below provides anoverview of the ten steps from “field to an operating power plant”for renewable energy projects in the current market situation. Thosetable 3.1: how does the current renewable energy market work in practice?steps are similar same for each renewable energy technology,however step 3 and 4 are especially important for wind and solarprojects. In developing countries the government and the mostlystate owned utilities might directly or indirectly takeresponsibilities of the project developers. The project developermight also work as a subdivision of a state owned utility.STEP WHAT WILL BE DONE? WHO? NEEDED INFORMATION / POLICYAND/OR INVESTMENT FRAMEWORKStep 1:Site identificationStep 2:Securing landunder civil lawStep 3:Determiningsite specificpotentialStep 4:Technical planning/micrositingIdentify the best locations for generators e.g. windturbines and pay special attention to technical andcommercial data, conservation issues and anyconcerns that local communities may have.Secure suitable locations through purchase andlease agreements with land owners.Site specific resource analysis (e.g. windmeasurement on hub height) from independentexperts. This will NOT be done by the projectdeveloper as (wind) data from independent expertsis a requirement for risk assessments by investors.Specialists develop the optimum wind farmconfiguration or solar panel sites etc, taking a widerange of parameters into consideration in order toachieve the best performance.PPP + MPResource analysis to identify possible sitesPolicy stability in order to make sure that the policyis still in place once Step 10 has been reached.Without a certainty that the renewable electricityproduced can be fed entirely into the grid to a reliabletariff, the entire process will not start.Transparent planning, efficient authorisationand permitting.See above.See above.3implementing the energy [r]evolution | RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECT PLANNING BASICSStep 5:Permit processOrganise all necessary surveys, put together therequired documentation and follow the wholepermit process.PTransparent planning, efficient authorisationand permitting.Step 6:Grid connectionplanningElectrical engineers work with grid operators todevelop the optimum grid connection concept.P + UPriority access to the grid.Certainty that the entire amount of electricityproduced can be feed into the grid.Step 7:FinancingOnce the entire project design is ready and theestimated annual output (in kWh/a) has beencalculated, all permits are processed and the totalfinance concept (incl. total investment and profitestimation) has been developed, the projectdeveloper will contact financial institutions to eitherapply for a loan and/or sell the entire project.P + ILong term power purchase contract.Prior and mandatory access to the grid.Site specific analysis (possible annual output).Step 8:ConstructionCivil engineers organise the entire construction phase.This can be done by the project developer or another.EPC (Engineering, procurement & construction)company – with the financial support from the investor.P + ISigned contracts with grid operator.Signed contract with investors.Step 9:Start of operationElectrical engineers make sure that the powerplant will be connected to the power grid.P + UPrior access to the grid (to avoid curtailment).Step 10:Business andoperationsmanagementOptimum technical and commercial operation ofpower plants/farms throughout their entireoperating life – for the owner (e.g. a bank).P + U + IGood technology & knowledge (A cost-savingapproach and “copy + paste engineering” will be moreexpensive in the long-term).P = Project developer, M = Meteorological Experts, I = Investor, U = utility.49

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKimplementing the energy [r]evolution | RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCING BASICS33.2 renewable energy financing basicsThe Swiss RE Private Equity Partners have provide anintroduction to renewable energy infrastructure investing(September 2011) which describes what makes renewable energyprojects different from fossil-fuel based energy assets from afinance perspective:• Renewable energy projects have short construction periodcompared to conventional energy generation and otherinfrastructure assets. Renewable projects have limited ramp-upperiods, and construction periods of one to three years, comparedto 10 years to build large conventional power plants.• In several countries, renewable energy producers have beengranted priority of dispatch. Where in place, grid operators areusually obliged to connect renewable power plants to their gridand for retailers or other authorised entities to purchase allrenewable electricity produced.• Renewable projects present relatively low operationalcomplexity compared to other energy generation assets or otherinfrastructure asset classes. Onshore wind and solar PVprojects in particular have well established operational trackrecords. This is obviously less the case for biomass or offshorewind plants.• Renewable projects typically have non-recourse financining,through a mix of debt and equity. In contrast to traditionalcorporate lending, project finance relies on future cash flowsfor interest and debt repayment, rather than the asset value orthe historical financial performance of a company. Projectfinance debt typically covers 70–90% of the cost of a project,is non-recourse to the investors, and ideally matches theduration of the underlying contractual agreements.• Renewable power typically has predictable cash flows and it isnot subject to fuel price volatility because the primary energyresource is generally freely available. Contractually guaranteedtariffs, as well as moderate costs of erecting, operating andmaintaining renewable generation facilities, allow for highprofit margins and predictable cash flows.• Renewable electricity remuneration mechanisms often includesome kind of inflation indexation, although incentive schemesmay vary on a case-by-case basis. For example, several tariffsin the EU are indexed to consumer price indices and adjustedon an annual basis (e.g. Spain, Italy). In projects wherespecific inflation protection is not provided (e.g. Germany), theregulatory framework allows selling power on the spot market,should the power price be higher than the guaranteed tariff.• Renewable power plants have expected long useful lives (over20 years). Transmission lines usually have economic lives ofover 40 years. Renewable assets are typically underpinned bylong-term contracts with utilities and benefit fromgovernmental support and manufacturer warranties.• Renewable energy projects deliver attractive and stable sourcesof income, only loosely linked to the economic cycle. Projectowners do not have to manage fuel cost volatility and projectsgenerate high operating margins with relatively secure revenuesand generally limited market risk.• The widespread development of renewable power generationwill require significant investments in the electricity network.As discussed in Chapter 2 future networks (smart grids) willhave to integrate an ever-increasing, decentralised, fluctuatingsupply of renewable energy. Furthermore, suppliers and/ordistribution companies will be expected to deliver asophisticated range of services by embedding digital griddevices into power networks.figure 3.1: return characteristics of renewable energiesSHORT CONSTRUCTIONPERIODGARANTEEDPOWER DISPATCHLOW OPERATIONALCOMPLEXITYNON-RECOURSEFINANCINGOpportunitesPower generation© LANGROCK / GREENPEACE© DREAMSTIMETransmission & storageInvestors benefitsPREDICTABLECASH FLOWSINFLATIONLINKAGELONGDURATIONRECURRINGINCOMEsourceSWISS RE PRIVATE EQUITY PARTNERS.50

image A LARGE SOLAR SYSTEM OF 63M 2 RISES ONTHE ROOF OF A HOTEL IN CELERINA, SWITZERLAND.THE COLLECTOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HOTWATER AND HEATING SUPPORT AND CAN SAVEABOUT 6,000 LITERS OF OIL PER YEAR. THUS, THE CO2EMISSIONS AND COMPANY COSTS CAN BE REDUCED.© GP/EX-PRESS/HEIKERisk assessment and allocation is at the centre of project finance.Accordingly, project structuring and expected return are directlyrelated to the risk profile of the project. The four main risk factorsto consider when investing in renewable energy assets are:• Regulatory risks refer to adverse changes in laws andregulations, unfavourable tariff setting and change or breach ofcontracts. As long as renewable energy relies on governmentpolicy dependent tariff schemes, it will remain vulnerable tochanges in regulation. However a diversified investment acrossregulatory jurisdictions, geographies, and technologies can helpmitigate those risks.• Construction risks relate to the delayed or costly delivery of anasset, the default of a contracting party, or anengineering/design failure. Construction risks are less prevalentfor renewable energy projects because they have relativelysimple design, however, construction risks can be mitigated byselecting high-quality and experienced turnkey partners, usingproven technologies and established equipment suppliers as wellas agreeing on retentions and construction guarantees.figure 3.3: investment stages of renewable energy projects• Financing risks refer to the inadequate use of debt in thefinancial structure of an asset. This comprises the abusive useof leverage, the exposure to interest rate volatility as well asthe need to refinance at less favourable terms.• Operational risks include equipment failure, counterparty defaultand reduced availability of the primary energy source (e.g. wind,heat, radiation). For renewable assets a lower than forecastedresource availability will result in lower revenues and profitabilityso this risk can damage the business case. For instance, abnormalwind regimes in Northern Europe over the last few years haveresulted in some cases in breach of coverage ratios and in theinability of some projects to pay dividends to shareholders.figure 3.2: overview risk factors for renewableenergy projectsREGULATORY RISKSFINANCING RISKSsourceSWISS RE PRIVATE EQUITY PARTNERS.CONSTRUCTION RISKSOPERATIONAL RISKS3implementing the energy [r]evolution | RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCING BASICSHigherRISKSLowerStageDEVELOPMENT CONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS© DAVIS / GREENPEACE© DAVIS / GREENPEACE© LANGROCK / GREENPEACE• Site identification• Approval & permitting process• Land procurement• Technical planning• Financing close• Equipment procurement• Engineering• Construction• Commissioning• Operations• Maintenance• Refinancing• Refurbishment/RepoweringStrategyEARLY-STAGE GREENFIELD LATE-STAGE GREENFIELD BROWNFIELDsourceSWISS RE PRIVATE EQUITY PARTNERS.51

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKimplementing the energy [r]evolution | RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCING BASICS33.2.1 overcoming barriers to finance and investmentfor renewable energytable 3.2: categorisation of barriers to renewable energy investmentCATEGORY SUB-CATEGORY EXAMPLE BARRIERSBarriers to financeOther investmentbarriersCost barriersInsufficient information and experienceFinancial structureProject and industry scaleInvestor confidenceGovernment renewable energy policy and lawSystem integration and infrastructureLock in of existing technologiesPermitting and planning regulationGovernment economic position and policySkilled human resourcesNational governance and legal systemCosts of renewable energy to generateMarket failures (e.g. No carbon price)Energy pricesTechnical barriersCompeting technologies (Gas, nuclear, CCS and coal)Overrated risksLack of experienced investorsLack of experienced project developersWeak finance sectors in some countriesUp-front investment costCosts of debt and equityLeverageRisk levels and finance horizonEquity/credit/bond optionsSecurity for investmentRelative small industry scaleSmaller project scaleConfidence in long term policyConfidence in short term policyConfidence in the renewable energy marketFeed-in tariffsRenewable energy targetsFramework law stabilityLocal content rulesAccess to gridEnergy infrastructureOverall national infrastructure qualityEnergy marketContracts between generators and usersSubsidies to other technologiesGrid lock-inSkills lock-inLobbying powerFavourabilityTransparencyPublic supportMonetary policy e.g. interest ratesFiscal policy e.g. stimulus and austerityCurrency risksTariffs in international tradeLack of training coursesPolitical stabilityCorruptionRobustness of legal systemLitigation risksIntellectual property rightsInstitutional awarenessDespite the relatively strong growth in renewable energies insome countries, there are still many barriers which hinder therapid uptake of renewable energy needed to achieve the scale ofdevelopment required. The key barriers to renewable energyinvestment identified by Greenpeace through a literature review 42and interviews with renewable energy sector financiers anddevelopers are shown in Figure 3.4.There are broad categories of common barriers to renewable energydevelopment that are present in many countries, however the natureof the barriers differs significantly. At the local level, political andpolicy support, grid infrastructure, electricity markets and planningregulations have to be negotiated for new projects.52

image AERIAL PHOTO OF THE ANDASOL 1 SOLARPOWER STATION, EUROPE’S FIRST COMMERCIALPARABOLIC TROUGH SOLAR POWER PLANT. ANDASOL1 WILL SUPPLY UP TO 200,000 PEOPLE WITHCLIMATE-FRIENDLY ELECTRICITY AND SAVE ABOUT149,000 TONNES OF CARBON DIOXIDE PER YEARCOMPARED WITH A MODERN COAL POWER PLANT.© GP/MARKEL REDONDOIn some regions, it is uncertainty of policy that is holding backinvestment more than an absence of policy support mechanisms. Inthe short term, investors aren’t confident rules will remain unalteredand aren’t confident that renewable energy goals will be met in thelonger term, let alone increased.When investors are cautious about taking on these risks, it drives upinvestment costs and the difficulty in accessing finance is a barrierto renewable energy project developers. Contributing factors includea lack of information and experience among investors and projectdevelopers, involvement of smaller companies and projects and ahigh proportion of up-front costs.Grid access and grid infrastructure is also a major barriers todevelopers, because they are not certain they will be able to sell all theelectricity they generate in many countries, during project development.In many regions, both state owned and private utilities arecontributing to blocking renewable energy through their marketpower and political power, maintaining ‘status quo’ in the grid,electricity markets for centralised coal and nuclear power andlobbying against pro-renewable and climate protection laws.The sometimes higher cost of renewable energy relative to competitorsis still a barrier, though many are confident that it will be overcome inthe coming decades. The Special Report on Renewable Energy Sourcesand Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) identifies cost as the mostsignificant barrier to investment 43 and while it exists, renewable energywill rely on policy intervention by governments in order to becompetitive, which creates additional risks for investors. It is importantto note though, that in some regions of the world specific renewabletechnologies are broadly competitive with current market energy prices(e.g. onshore wind in Europe and solar hot water heaters in China).Concerns over planning and permit issues are significant, though varysignificantly in their strength and nature depending on the jurisdiction.3.2.2 how to overcome investment barriersfor renewable energyTo see an Energy [R]evolution will require a mix of policymeasures, finance, grid, and development. In summary:• Additional and improved policy support mechanisms forrenewable energy are needed in all countries and regions.• Building confidence in the existing policy mechanisms may be just asimportant as making them stronger, particularly in the short term.• Improved policy mechanisms can also lower the cost of finance,particularly by providing longer durations of revenue supportand increasing revenue certainty. 44• Access to finance can be increased by greater involvement ofgovernments and development banks in programs like loanguarantees and green bonds as well as more active private investors.• Grid access and infrastructure needs to be improved throughinvestment in smart, decentralised grids.• Lowering the cost of renewable energy technologies directly willrequire industry development and boosted research and development.• A smoother pathway for renewable energy needs to be establishedthrough planning and permit issues at the local level.3implementing the energy [r]evolution | RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCING BASICSfigure 3.4: key barriers to renewable energy investmentBARRIERS TO INVESTMENTConfidencein policyLack of policyAccessto financeGrid access Utilities Price / costPlanning& permitsGovt. REpolicy & lawLack of info.& exp.ElectricitymarketLack ofexisting tech.Lack of R+DLandavailabilityNat. economy& governanceFinancialstructureAccess totech.FinancialcrisisLack ofskilled labourROI for REProject &industry scalereferences42 SOURCES INCLUDE: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) (2011) SPECIAL REPORT ONRENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION (SRREN), 15TH JUNE 2011. UNITEDNATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME (UNEP), BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE (BNEF) (2011). GLOBALTRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2011, JULY 2011. RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY NETWORKFOR THE 21ST CENTURY (REN21) (2011). RENEWABLES 2011, GLOBAL STATUS REPORT, 12 JULY, 2011. ECOFYS,FRAUNHOFER ISI, TU VIENNA EEG, ERNST & YOUNG (2011). FINANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THEEUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET BY ORDER OF EUROPEAN COMMISSION, DG ENERGY, 2ND OF JANUARY, 2011.43 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) (2011) SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLEENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION (SRREN). 15TH JUNE 2011. CHP. 11, P.24.44 CLIMATE POLICY INITIATIVE (2011):THE IMPACTS OF POLICY ON THE FINANCING OF RENEWABLEPROJECTS: A CASE STUDY ANALYSIS, 3 OCTOBER 2011.53

scenario for a future energy supply4SCENARIO BACKGROUNDMAIN SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONSPOPULATION DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC GROWTHOIL AND GAS PRICE PROJECTIONSCOST OF CO2 EMISSIONSCOST PROJECTIONS FOR EFFICIENTFOSSIL FUEL GENERATION AND CCSCOST PROJECTIONS FORRENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESASSUMPTIONS FOR FOSSIL FUELPHASE OUTREVIEW: GREENPEACE SCENARIOPROJECTS OF THE PAST“towardsa sustainableenergy supplysystem.”© JACQUES DESCLOITRES/NASA/GSFCimage THE OB’ RIVER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL SIBERIAN PLATEAU, JUNE 20, 2002. THE MOUTH OF THE OB’ RIVER (LARGE RIVER AT LEFT) WHERE ITEMPTIES INTO KARA SEA. IN THE FALSE-COLOR IMAGE, VEGETATION APPEARS IN BRIGHT GREEN, WATER APPEARS DARK BLUE OR BLACK, AND ICE APPEARS BRIGHT BLUE.54

image MAINTENANCE WORKERS FIX THE BLADESOF A WINDMILL AT GUAZHOU WIND FARM NEARYUMEN IN GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA.© GP/MARKEL REDONDOMoving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigatesagainst climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energyinfrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologiestake time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years totake effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossilto renewable energies will require additional investment andhigher supply costs over about twenty years. However, there willbe tremendous economic benefits in the long term, due to muchlower consumption of increasingly expensive, rare or importedfuels. Any analysis that seeks to tackle energy and environmentalissues therefore needs to look ahead at least half a century.Scenarios are necessary to describe possible development paths,to give decision-makers a broad overview and indicate how farthey can shape the future energy system. Two scenarios are usedhere to show the wide range of possible pathways in each worldregion for a future energy supply system:• Reference scenario, reflecting a continuation of current trendsand policies.• The Energy [R]evolution scenario, designed to achieve a set ofenvironmental policy targets.The Reference scenario is based on the Current Policies scenariospublished by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in WorldEnergy Outlook 2011 (WEO 2011). 45 It only takes existinginternational energy and environmental policies into account. Itsassumptions include, for example, continuing progress inelectricity and gas market reforms, the liberalisation of crossborderenergy trade and recent policies designed to combatenvironmental pollution. The Reference scenario does not includeadditional policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As theIEA’s projections only extend to 2035, they have been extendedby extrapolating their key macroeconomic and energy indicatorsforward to 2050. This provides a baseline for comparison with theEnergy [R]evolution scenarios.The Energy [R]evolution scenario has a key target to reduceworldwide carbon dioxide emissions from energy use down to alevel of below 4 Gigatonnes per year by 2050 in order to hold theincrease in global temperature under +2°C. A second objective isthe global phasing out of nuclear energy. The Energy [R]evolutionscenarios published by Greenpeace in 2007, 2008 and 2010included ‘basic’ and ‘advanced’ scenarios, the less ambitioustarget was for 10 Gigatonnes CO2 emissions per year by 2050.However, this 2012 revision only focuses on the more ambitious“advanced” Energy [R]evolution scenario first published in 2010.To achieve the target, the scenario includes significant efforts tofully exploit the large potential for energy efficiency usingcurrently available best practice technology. At the same time, allcost-effective renewable energy sources are used for heat andelectricity generation as well as the production of biofuels. Thegeneral framework parameters for population and GDP growthremain unchanged from the Reference scenario.This new global Energy [R]evolution scenario is aimed at an evenstronger decrease in CO2 emissions, considering that even10 Gigatonnes – the target of the 2007 and 2008 editions -might be too high to keep global temperature rises at bay. Allgeneral framework parameters such as population and economicgrowth remain similar to previous editions, however the uptake ofrenewable energies has been accelerated partly based on thelatest very positive developments in the wind and solarphotovoltaic sectors.Efficiency in use of electricity and fuels in industry and “othersectors” has been completely re-evaluated using a consistentapproach based on technical efficiency potentials and energyintensities. The resulting consumption pathway is close to theprojection of the earlier editions. One key difference for the newEnergy [R]evolution scenarios is incorporating stronger efforts todevelop better technologies to achieve CO2 reduction. There islower demand factored into the transport sector (compared tothe basic scenario in 2008 and 2010), from a change in drivingpatterns and a faster uptake of efficient combustion vehicles anda larger share of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles after 2025.This scenario contains a lower use of biofuels for private vehiclesfollowing the latest scientific reports that indicate that biofuelsmight have a higher greenhouse gas emission footprint than fossilfuels. There are no global sustainability standards for biofuels yet,which would be needed to avoid competition with food growingand to avoid deforestation.The new Energy [R]evolution scenario also foresees a shift in theuse of renewables from power to heat, thanks to the enormousand diverse potential for renewable power. Assumptions for theheating sector include a fast expansion of the use of district heatand more electricity for process heat in the industry sector. Moregeothermal heat pumps are also included, which leads to a higheroverall electricity demand, when combined with a larger share ofelectric cars for transport. A faster expansion of solar andgeothermal heating systems is also assumed. Hydrogen generatedby electrolysis and renewable electricity is introduced in thisscenario as third renewable fuel in the transport sector after2025 complementary to biofuels and direct use of renewableelectricity. Hydrogen is also applied as a chemical storagemedium for electricity from renewables and used in industrialcombustion processes and cogeneration for provision of heat andelectricity, as well, and for short periods also reconversion intoelectricity. Hydrogen generation can have high energy losses,however the limited potentials of biofuels and probably alsobattery electric mobility makes it necessary to have a thirdrenewable option. Alternatively, this renewable hydrogen could beconverted into synthetic methane or liquid fuels depending oneconomic benefits (storage costs vs. additional losses) as well astechnology and market development in the transport sector(combustion engines vs. fuel cells).4scenarios for a future energy supply | SCENARIO BACKGROUNDreference45 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA), ‘WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2011’, OECD/IEA 2011.55

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKscenarios for a future energy supply | SCENARIO BACKGROUND4In all sectors, the latest market development projections of therenewable energy industry 46 have been taken into account (SeeTable 4.1 “Assumed average growth rates and annual marketvolumes by renewable technology”). In developing countries inparticular, a shorter operational lifetime for coal power plants, ofup to 20 instead of 35 years, has been assumed in order to allowa faster uptake of renewable energy. This is particularly the caseof China, as around 90% of new global coal power plants builtbetween 2005 and 2011 have been in China (see Chapter 7). Thefast introduction of electric vehicles, combined with theimplementation of smart grids and faster expansion oftransmission grids (accelerated by about 10 years compared toprevious scenarios) allows a higher share of fluctuating renewablepower generation (photovoltaic and wind) to be employed. In thisscenario, renewable energy would pass 30% of the global energysupply just after 2020.The global quantities of biomass power generators and largehydro power remain limited in the new Energy [R]evolutionscenarios, for reasons of ecological sustainability.These scenarios by no means claim to predict the future; theysimply describe and compare two potential consistent developmentpathways out of the broad range of possible ‘futures’. The Energy[R]evolution scenarios are designed to indicate the efforts andactions required to achieve their ambitious objectives and toillustrate the options we have at hand to change our energy supplysystem into one that is truly sustainable.table 4.1: assumed average growth rates and annual market volumes by renewable technologyRE202020302050ENERGY PARAMETERGENERATION (TWh/a)REF28,49035,46148,316E[R]24,02833,04146,573ANNUAL GROWTHRATE (%/a)REFE[R]ANNUAL MARKETVOLUME (GW/a)REFE[R]SolarPV 2020PV 2030PV 2050CSP 2020CSP 2030CSP 205015834169635812698782,6347,2904662,6729,34822%9%8%16%10%14%48%13%12%55%21%15%821430145416222384469WindOn + Offshore 2020On + Offshore 2030On + Offshore 20501,1271,7102,8412,9896,97113,76713%5%6%26%10%8%316753107274257Geothermal (for power generation)2020203020501181723014001,3013,7656%4%6%21%14%13%12251826Bioenergy (for power generation)2020203020505749371,6299321,5212,69115%6%6%21%6%7%71611142617Ocean202020302050213561395602,0538%24%17%73%17%16%00151629Hydro2020203020504,2234,8345,8874,1924,5425,0093%2%2%2%1%1%26139772513065reference46 SEE EREC (‘RE-THINKING 2050’), GWEC, EPIA ET AL.56

image FIRE BOAT RESPONSE CREWS BATTLE THEBLAZING REMNANTS OF THE OFFSHORE OIL RIGDEEPWATER HORIZON APRIL 21, 2010. MULTIPLECOAST GUARD HELICOPTERS, PLANES ANDCUTTERS RESPONDED TO RESCUE THE DEEPWATERHORIZON’S 126 PERSON CREW.© THE UNITED STATESCOAST GUARD4.1 scenario backgroundThe scenarios in this report were jointly commissioned byGreenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council fromthe Systems Analysis group of the Institute of TechnicalThermodynamics, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR).The supply scenarios were calculated using the MESAP/PlaNetsimulation model adopted in the previous Energy [R]evolutionstudies. 47 The new energy demand projections were developedfrom Utrecht University, Netherlands, based on a new analysis ofthe future potential for energy efficiency measures in 2012. Thebiomass potential calculated for previous editions, judgedaccording to Greenpeace sustainability criteria, has beendeveloped by the German Biomass Research Centre in 2009 andhas been further reduced for precautionary principles. The futuredevelopment pathway for car technologies is based on a specialreport produced in 2012 by the Institute of Vehicle Concepts,DLR for Greenpeace International. These studies are describedbriefly below.4.1.1 energy efficiency study for industry, householdsand servicesThe demand study by Utrecht University aimed to develop a lowenergy demand scenario for the period 2009 to 2050 covering theworld regions as defined in the IEA’s World Energy Outlookreport series. Calculations were made for each decade from 2009onwards. Energy demand was split up into electricity and fuelsand their consumption was considered in industry and for ‘other’consumers, including households, agriculture and services.Under the low energy demand scenario, worldwide final energydemand in industry and other sectors is 31% lower in 2050compared to the Reference scenario, resulting in a final energydemand of 256 EJ (ExaJoules). The energy savings are fairlyequally distributed over the two main sectors. The most importantenergy saving options would be efficient production andcombustion processes and improved heat insulation and buildingdesign. Chapter 10 provides more details about this study. Thedemand projections for the Reference scenario have been updatedon the basis of the Current Policies scenario from IEA’s WorldEnergy Outlook 2011.4.1.2 the future for transportThe DLR Institute of Vehicle Concepts in Stuttgart, Germany hasdeveloped a global scenario for all transport modes covering tenworld regions. The aim was to produce a demanding but feasiblescenario to lower global CO2 emissions from transport in keepingwith the overall objectives of this report. The approach takes intoaccount a vast range of technical measures to reduce the energyconsumption of vehicles, but also considers the dramatic increasein vehicle ownership and annual mileage taking place indeveloping countries. The major parameters are vehicletechnology, alternative fuels, changes in sales of different vehiclesizes of light duty vehicles (called the segment split) and changesin tonne-kilometres and vehicle-kilometres travelled (described asmodal split). The Reference scenario for the transport sector isalso based on the fuel consumption path of the Current Policiesscenario from WEO 2011.By combining ambitious efforts towards higher efficiency in vehicletechnologies, a major switch to grid-connected electric vehicles(especially LDVs) and incentives for vehicle users to save carbondioxide the study finds that it is possible to reduce CO2 emissionsfrom ‘well-to-wheel’ in the transport sector in 2050 by roughly77% 48 compared to 1990 and 81% compared to 2009. By 2050,in this scenario, 25% of the final energy used in transport will stillcome from fossil sources, mainly gasoline, kerosene and diesel.Renewable electricity will cover 41%, biofuels 11% and hydrogen20%. Total energy consumption will be reduced by 26% in 2050compared to 2009 even though there are enormous increases infuel use in some regions of the world. The peak in global CO2emissions from transport occurs between 2015 and 2020. From2012 onwards, new legislation in the US and Europe willcontribute to breaking the upwards trend. From 2020, the effect ofintroducing grid-connected electric cars can be clearly seen.Chapter 11 provides more details of this report.4.1.3 fossil fuel assessment reportAs part of the Energy [R]evolution scenario, Greenpeace alsocommissioned the Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik Institute inMunich, Germany to research a new fossil fuel resourcesassessment taking into account planned and ongoing investmentsin coal, gas and oil on a global and regional basis (see fossil fuelpathway Chapter 7).4scenarios for a future energy supply | MAIN SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS4.1.4 status and future projections for renewableheating technologiesEREC and the DLR undertook a detailed research about thecurrent renewable heating technology markets, market forecasts,cost projections and state of the technology development. Thecost projection (see section 4.9) as well as the technology option(see Chapter 9) have been used as an input information for thisnew Energy [R]evolution scenario.references47 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK’, GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL,2007, 2008 AND 2010.48 TRANSPORT EMISSIONS IN 1990 BASED ON WEO 2011.57

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKscenarios for a future energy supply | POPULATION DEVELOPMENT & ECONOMIC GROWTH44.2 main scenario assumptionsTo develop a global energy scenario requires a model that reflectsthe significant structural differences between different countries’energy supply systems. The International Energy Agency breakdownof ten world regions, as used in the ongoing series of World Energyfigure 4.1: world regions used in the scenariosoecd northamerica 50Canada, Mexico, UnitedStates of Americalatin americaAntigua and Barbuda,Argentina, Bahamas,Barbados, Belize,Bermuda, Bolivia,Brazil, Chile, Colombia,Costa Rica, Cuba,Dominica, DominicanRepublic, Ecuador,El Salvador, FrenchGuiana, Grenada,Guadeloupe,Guatemala, Guyana,Haiti, Honduras,Jamaica, Martinique,Netherlands Antilles,Nicaragua, Panama,Paraguay, Peru, St.Kitts-Nevis-Anguila,Saint Lucia, St. Vincentand Grenadines,Suriname, Trinidad andTobago, Uruguay,Venezuela58oecd europeAustria, Belgium,Czech Republic,Denmark, Estonia,Finland, France,Germany, Greece,Hungary, Iceland,Ireland, Italy,Luxembourg, theNetherlands, Norway,Poland, Portugal,Slovak Republic, Spain,Sweden, Switzerland,Turkey, United KingdomafricaAlgeria, Angola, Benin,Botswana, BurkinaFaso, Burundi,Cameroon, Cape Verde,Central AfricanRepublic, Chad,Comoros, Congo,Democratic Republic ofCongo, Cote d’Ivoire,Djibouti, Egypt,Equatorial Guinea,Eritrea, Ethiopia,Gabon, Gambia, Ghana,Guinea, Guinea-Bissau,Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia,Libya, Madagascar,Malawi, Mali,Mauritania, Mauritius,Morocco, Mozambique,Namibia, Niger, Nigeria,Reunion, Rwanda, SaoTome and Principe,Senegal, Seychelles,Sierra Leone, Somalia,South Africa, Sudan,Swaziland, UnitedRepublic of Tanzania,Togo, Tunisia, Uganda,Zambia, ZimbabweOutlook reports, has been chosen because the IEA also providesthe most comprehensive global energy statistics. 49 In line withWEO 2011, this new edition maintains the ten region approach.The countries in each of the world regions are listed in Figure 4.1.middle eastBahrain, Iran, Iraq,Israel, Jordan, Kuwait,Lebanon, Oman,Qatar, Saudi Arabia,Syria, United ArabEmirates, YemenindiaIndiachinaPeople’s Republicof China includingHong Kongother nonoecd asia 52Afghanistan,Bangladesh, Bhutan,Brunei, Cambodia,Chinese Taipei, Fiji,French Polynesia,Indonesia, Kiribati,Democratic People’sRepublic of Korea,Laos, Macao, Malaysia,Maldives, Mongolia,Myanmar, Nepal, NewCaledonia, Pakistan,Papua New Guinea,Philippines, Samoa,Singapore, SolomonIslands, Sri Lanka,Thailand, Vietnam,Vanuatueasterneurope/eurasiaAlbania, Armenia,Azerbaijan, Belarus,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Bulgaria, Croatia,Serbia andMontenegro, formerRepublic of Macedonia,Georgia, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan, Latvia,Lithuania, Moldova,Romania, Russia,Slovenia, Tajikistan,Turkmenistan, Ukraine,Uzbekistan, Cyprus 51 ,Malta 51oecd asiaoceaniaAustralia, Japan, Korea(South), New Zealandreferences49 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA), PARIS: ‘ENERGY BALANCES OF NON-OECD COUNTRIES’ AND‘ENERGY BALANCES OF OECD COUNTRIES’, 2011 EDITION.50 WEO 2011 DEFINES THE REGION „OECD AMERICAS” AS USA, CANADA, MEXICO, AND CHILE. CHILE THUSBELONGS TO BOTH, OECD AMERICAS AND LATIN AMERICA IN WEO 2011. TO AVOID DOUBLE COUNTING OFCHILE, THE REGION “OECD NORTH AMERICA” HERE IS DEFINED WITHOUT CHILE, IN CONTRAST TO WEO 2011.51 CYPRUS AND MALTA ARE ALLOCATED TO THE REGION EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA FOR STATISTICAL REASONS.52 WEO 2011 DEFINES THE REGION “NON OECD ASIA” INCLUDING CHINA AND INDIA. AS CHINA AND INDIAARE ANALYSED INDIVIDUALLY IN THIS STUDY, THE REGION “REMAINING NON OECD ASIA” HERE ISBASED ON WEO’S “NON OECD ASIA”, BUT WITHOUT CHINA AND INDIA.

image A WOMAN STUDIES SOLAR POWER SYSTEMS ATTHE BAREFOOT COLLEGE. THE COLLEGE SPECIALISESIN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PROVIDES ASPACE WHERE STUDENTS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLDCAN LEARN TO UTILISE RENEWABLE ENERGY. THESTUDENTS TAKE THEIR NEW SKILLS HOME AND GIVETHEIR VILLAGES CLEAN ENERGY.© GP/EMMA STONER4.3 population developmentFuture population development is an important factor in energyscenario building because population size affects the size andcomposition of energy demand, directly and through its impact oneconomic growth and development. The IEA World EnergyOutlook 2011 uses the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) projections for population development. For this studythe most recent population projections from UNDP up to 2050are applied 53 , in addition, the current national populationprojection is used for China (see Table 4.2).Based on UNDP’s 2010 assessment, the world’s population isexpected to grow by 0.76 % on average over the period 2007 to2050, from 6.8 billion people in 2009 to nearly 9.3 billion by 2050.The rate of population growth will slow over the projection period,from 1.1% per year during 2009-2020 to 0.5% per year during2040-2050. The updated projections show an increase in populationestimates by 2050 of around 150 million compared to the UNDP2008 edition. This will slightly increase the demand for energy. Froma regional perspective,the population of the developing regions willcontinue to grow most rapidly. The Eastern Europe/Eurasia will facea continuous decline, followed after a short while by the OECD AsiaOceania. The population in OECD Europe and OECD North Americaare expected to increase through 2050. The share of the populationliving in today’s non-OECD countries will increase from the current82% to 85% in 2050. China’s contribution to world population willdrop from 20% today to 14% in 2050. Africa will remain theregion with the highest growth rate, leading to a share of 24% ofworld population in 2050.Satisfying the energy needs of a growing population in thedeveloping regions of the world in an environmentally friendlymanner is the fundamental challenge to achieve a globalsustainable energy supply.table 4.2: population development projections(IN MILLIONS)REGIONWorldOECD EuropeOECD NorthAmericaOECD AsiaOceaniaEastern Europe/EurasiaIndiaChinaNon OECDAsiaLatinAmericaAfricaMiddle East20096,8185554582013391,2081,3421,04646899920320157,2845704842043401,3081,3771,1284991.04522920207,6685795042053411,3871,4071,1945221,27825020258,0365875242053401,4591,4361,2545441,41727020308,3725935412043371,5231,4521,3075621,56228920408,9785995711993311,6271,4741,3925891,870326source UN WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS - 2010 REVISION, MEDIUM VARIANT,AND NATIONAL POPULATION SCENARIO FOR CHINA.20509,4696005951933241,6921,4681,4456032,1923584.4 economic growthEconomic growth is a key driver for energy demand. Since 1971,each 1% increase in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) hasbeen accompanied by a 0.6% increase in primary energyconsumption. The decoupling of energy demand and GDP growthis therefore a prerequisite for an Energy [R]evolution. Mostglobal energy/economic/environmental models constructed in thepast have relied on market exchange rates to place countries in acommon currency for estimation and calibration. This approachhas been the subject of considerable discussion in recent years,and an alternative has been proposed in the form of purchasingpower parity (PPP) exchange rates. Purchasing power paritiescompare the costs in different currencies of a fixed basket oftraded and non-traded goods and services and yield a widelybasedmeasure of the standard of living. This is important inanalysing the main drivers of energy demand or for comparingenergy intensities among countries.Although PPP assessments are still relatively imprecisecompared to statistics based on national income and producttrade and national price indexes, they are considered to provide abetter basis for global scenario development. 54 Thus all data oneconomic development in WEO 2011 refers to purchasing poweradjusted GDP. However, as WEO 2011 only covers the time periodup to 2035, the projections for 2035-2050 for the Energy[R]evolution scenario are based on our own estimates.Furthermore, estimates of Africa’s GDP development have beenadjusted upward compared to WEO 2011.Prospects for GDP growth have decreased considerably since theprevious study, due to the financial crisis at the beginning of2009, although underlying growth trends continue much thesame. GDP growth in all regions is expected to slow graduallyover the coming decades. World GDP is assumed to grow onaverage by 3.8% per year over the period 2009-2030, comparedto 3.1% from 1971 to 2007, and on average by 3.1% per yearover the entire modelling period (2009-2011). China and Indiaare expected to grow faster than other regions, followed by theMiddle East, Africa, remaining Non OECD Asia, and EasternEurope/Eurasia. The Chinese economy will slow as it becomesmore mature, but will nonetheless become the largest in theworld in PPP terms early in the 2020s. GDP in OECD Europeand OECD Asia Oceania is assumed to grow by around 1.6 and1.3% per year over the projection period, while economic growthin OECD North America is expected to be slightly higher. TheOECD share of global PPP-adjusted GDP will decrease from56% in 2009 to 33% in 2050.references53 ‘WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: THE 2010 REVISION (MEDIUM VARIANT)’, UNITED NATIONS,POPULATION DIVISION, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS (UNDP), 2011.54 NORDHAUS, W, ‘ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF OUTPUT IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC-ENVIRONMENTALMODELS: PURCHASING POWER PARITY OR MARKET EXCHANGE RATES?’, REPORT PREPARED FOR IPCCEXPERT MEETING ON EMISSION SCENARIOS, US-EPA WASHINGTON DC, JANUARY 12-14, 2005.594scenarios for a future energy supply | OIL AND GAS PRICE PROJECTS

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKscenarios for a future energy supply | COST OF CO2 EMISSIONS, COST PROJECTIONS FOR EFFICIENT FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION AND CCS4table 4.3: gdp development projections(AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES)REGIONWorldOECD AmericasOECD AsiaOceaniaOECD EuropeEastern Europe/EurasiaIndiaChinaNon OECDAsiaLatinAmericaMiddle EastAfrica2009-20204.2%2.7%2.4%2.1%4.2%7.6%8.2%5.2%4.0%4.3%4.5%2020-20353.2%2.3%1.4%1.8%3.2%5.8%4.2%3.2%2.8%3.7%4.4%2035-20502.2%1.2%0.5%1.0%1.9%3.1%2.7%2.6%2.2%2.8%4.2%2009-2050source 2009-2035: IEA WEO 2011 AND 2035-2050: DLR, PERSONAL COMMUNICATION(2012)3.1%2.0%1.3%1.6%3.0%5.3%4.7%3.5%2.9%3.5%4.4%4.5 oil and gas price projectionstable 4.4: development projections for fossil fuel and biomass prices in $ 2010FOSSIL FUELCrude oil importsHistoric prices (from WEO)WEO “450 ppm scenario”WEO Current policiesEnergy [R]evolution 2012Natural gas importsHistoric prices (from WEO)United StatesEuropeJapan LNGWEO 2011 “450 ppm scenario”United StatesEuropeJapan LNGWEO 2011 Current policiesUnited StatesEuropeJapan LNGEnergy [R]evolution 2012United StatesEuropeJapan LNGOECD steam coal importsHistoric prices (from WEO)WEO 2011 “450 ppm scenario”WEO 2011 Current policiesEnergy [R]evolution 2012Biomass (solid)Energy [R]evolution 2012OECD EuropeOECD Asia Oceania & North AmericaOther regionsUNITbarrelbarrelbarrelbarrelGJGJGJGJGJGJGJGJGJGJGJGJtonnetonnetonnetonneGJGJGJ2000355.073.756.18422005512.354.554.58502007763.286.376.41707.503.342.74The recent dramatic fluctuations in global oil prices have resultedin slightly higher forward price projections for fossil fuels. Underthe 2004 ‘high oil and gas price’ scenario from the EuropeanCommission, for example, an oil price of just $ 34 per barrel wasassumed in 2030. More recent projections of oil prices by 2035in the IEA’s WEO 2011 range from $2010 97/bbl in the 450 ppmscenario up to $2010 140/bbl in current policies scenario.Since the first Energy [R]evolution study was published in 2007,however, the actual price of oil has moved over $ 100/bbl for thefirst time, and in July 2008 reached a record high of more than$ 140/bbl. Although oil prices fell back to $ 100/bbl inSeptember 2008 and around $ 80/bbl in April 2010, prices haveincreased to more than $ 110/bbl in early 2012. Thus, theprojections in the IEA Current Policies scenario might still beconsidered too conservative. Taking into account the growingglobal demand for oil we have assumed a price development pathfor fossil fuels slightly higher than the IEA WEO 2011 “CurrentPolicies” case extrapolated forward to 2050 (see Table 4.4).As the supply of natural gas is limited by the availability of pipelineinfrastructure, there is no world market price for gas. In most regionsof the world the gas price is directly tied to the price of oil. Gasprices are therefore assumed to increase to $24-30/GJ by 2050.2008981222010787878784.647.9111.614.647.9111.614.647.9111.614.647.9111.619999997.803.442.842015971061126.229.9212.566.4410.3413.408.4914.2216.22100105126.78.313.553.242020971061126.8610.3412.667.3911.6114.2410.8416.7819.08931091399.323.853.552025971061128.4410.3412.668.1212.5614.9812.5618.2220.6383113162.39.724.103.802030971351528.8510.2312.778.8513.2915.6114.5719.5422.1274116171.010.134.364.052035971401528.239.9212.779.5013.7216.0416.4520.9123.6268118181.310.284.564.36204015218.3422.2925.12199.010.434.764.66205015224.0426.3729.77206.310.645.274.96source IEA WEO 2009 & 2011 own assumptions.60

image SATELLITE IMAGE OF JAPAN’S DAI ICHIPOWER PLANT SHOWING DAMAGE AFTER THEEARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF 2011.© DIGITAL GLOBE4.6 cost of CO2 emissionsAssuming that a carbon emissions trading system is establishedacross all world regions in the longer term, the cost of CO2allowances needs to be included in the calculation of electricitygeneration costs. Projections of emissions costs are even moreuncertain than energy prices, and a broad range of futureestimates has been made in studies. The CO2 costs assumed in2050 are often higher than those included in this Energy[R]evolution study (75 $2010/tCO2) 55 , reflecting estimates of thetotal external costs of CO2 emissions. The CO2 cost estimates inthe 2010 version of Energy [R]evolution were rather conservative(50 $2008/t). CO2 costs are applied in Kyoto Protocol Non-Annex Bcountries only from 2030 on.table 4.5: assumptions on CO2 emissions cost developmentfor Annex-B and Non-Annex-B countries of the UNFCCC.($2000/tCO2)COUNTRIESAnnex-B countriesNon-Annex-B countries2010002015150202025020304040204055554.7 cost projections for efficient fossil fuelgeneration and carbon capture and storage (CCS)Further cost reduction potentials are assumed for fuel powertechnologies in use today for coal, gas, lignite and oil. Becausethey are at an advanced stage of market development the4potential for cost reductions is limited, and will be achievedmainly through an increase in efficiency. 56There is much speculation about the potential for carbon captureand storage (CCS) to mitigate the effect of fossil fuelconsumption on climate change, even though the technology isstill under development.CCS means trapping CO2 from fossil fuels, either before or afterthey are burned, and ‘storing’ (effectively disposing of) it in thesea or beneath the surface of the earth. There are currently threedifferent methods of capturing CO2: ‘pre-combustion’, ‘postcombustion’and ‘oxyfuel combustion’. However, development is ata very early stage and CCS will not be implemented - in the bestcase - before 2020 and will probably not become commerciallyviable as a possible effective mitigation option until 2030.Cost estimates for CCS vary considerably, depending on factors suchas power station configuration, technology, fuel costs, size of projectand location. One thing is certain, however: CCS is expensive. Itrequires significant funds to construct the power stations and thenecessary infrastructure to transport and store carbon. The IPCCspecial report on CCS assesses costs at $15-75 per ton of capturedCO2 57 , while a 2007 US Department of Energy report foundinstalling carbon capture systems to most modern plants resulted ina near doubling of costs. 58 These costs are estimated to increase theprice of electricity in a range from 21-91%. 59table 4.6: development of efficiency and investment costs for selected new power plant technologies20507575scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESPOWER PLANT2009201520202030 2040 2050Coal-fired condensingpower plantLignite-fired condensingpower plantNatural gascombined cycleMax. efficiency (%)Investment costs ($2010/kW)CO2 emissions a) (g/kWh)Max. efficiency (%)Investment costs ($2010/kW)CO2 emissions a) (g/kWh)Max. efficiency (%)Investment costs ($2010/kW)CO2 emissions a) (g/kWh)451,436744411,69397557777354461,384728431,61492959754342481,363697441,57890861736330501,33067044,51,54589862701325521,295644451,51188863666320531,262632451,47888864631315sourceWEO 2010, DLR 2010 a) CO2 emissions refer to power station outputs only; life-cycle emissions are not considered.references55 KREWITT, W., SCHLOMANN, B., EXTERNAL COSTS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLEENERGIES COMPARED TO ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES, GERMAN FEDERALMINISTRY FOR THE ENVIRONMENT, NATURE CONSERVATION AND NUCLEAR SAFETY, BERLIN 2006.56 GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL BRIEFING: CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE’, GOERNE, 2007.57 ABANADES, J C ET AL., 2005, PG 10.58 NATIONAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY LABORATORIES, 2007.59 RUBIN ET AL., 2005A, PG 40.61

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKscenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES4Pipeline networks will also need to be constructed to move CO2 tostorage sites. This is likely to require a considerable outlay ofcapital. 60 Costs will vary depending on a number of factors,including pipeline length, diameter and manufacture fromcorrosion-resistant steel, as well as the volume of CO2 to betransported. Pipelines built near population centres or on difficultterrain, such as marshy or rocky ground, are more expensive. 61The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)estimates a cost range for pipelines of $1-8/tonne of CO2transported. A United States Congressional Research Servicesreport calculated capital costs for an 11 mile pipeline in theMidwestern region of the US at approximately $6 million. Thesame report estimates that a dedicated interstate pipelinenetwork in North Carolina would cost upwards of $5 billion dueto the limited geological sequestration potential in that part ofthe country. 62 Storage and subsequent monitoring and verificationcosts are estimated by the IPCC to range from $0.5-8/tCO2 (forstorage) and $0.1-0.3/tCO2 (for monitoring). The overall cost ofCCS could therefore be a major barrier to its deployment. 63For the above reasons, CCS power plants are not included in oureconomic analysis.Table 4.6 summarises our assumptions on the technical andeconomic parameters of future fossil-fuelled power planttechnologies. Based on estimates from WEO 2010, we assume thatfurther technical innovation will not prevent an increase of futureinvestment costs because raw material costs and technicalcomplexity will continue to increase. Also, improvements in powerplant efficiency are outweighed by the expected increase in fossil fuelprices, which would increase electricity generation costs significantly.4.8 cost projections for renewable energy technologiesThe different renewable energy technologies available today allhave different technical maturity, costs and development potential.Whereas hydro power has been widely used for decades, othertechnologies, such as the gasification of biomass or ocean energy,have yet to find their way to market maturity. Some renewablesources by their very nature, including wind and solar power,provide a variable supply, requiring a revised coordination with thegrid network. But although in many cases renewable energytechnologies are ‘distributed’ - their output being generated anddelivered locally to the consumer – in the future we can also havelarge-scale applications like offshore wind parks, photovoltaicpower plants or concentrating solar power stations.It is possible to develop a wide spectrum of options to marketmaturity, using the individual advantages of the differenttechnologies, and linking them with each other, and integratingthem step by step into the existing supply structures. Thisapproach will provide a complementary portfolio ofenvironmentally friendly technologies for heat and power supplyand the provision of transport fuels.Many of the renewable technologies employed today are at arelatively early stage of market development. As a result, thecosts of electricity, heat and fuel production are generally higherthan those of competing conventional systems - a reminder thatthe environmental and social costs of conventional powerproduction are not reflected in market prices. It is expected,however that large cost reductions can come from technicaladvances, manufacturing improvements and large-scaleproduction, unlike conventional technologies. The dynamic trendof cost developments over time plays a crucial role in identifyingeconomically sensible expansion strategies for scenarios spanningseveral decades.To identify long-term cost developments, learning curves havebeen applied to the model calculations to reflect how cost of aparticular technology change in relation to the cumulativeproduction volumes. For many technologies, the learning factor(or progress ratio) is between 0.75 for less mature systems to0.95 and higher for well-established technologies. A learningfactor of 0.9 means that costs are expected to fall by 10% everytime the cumulative output from the technology doubles.Empirical data shows, for example, that the learning factor forPV solar modules has been fairly constant at 0.8 over 30 yearswhilst that for wind energy varies from 0.75 in the UK to 0.94 inthe more advanced German market.Assumptions on future costs for renewable electricity technologiesin the Energy [R]evolution scenario are derived from a review oflearning curve studies, for example by Lena Neij and others 64 , fromthe analysis of recent technology foresight and road mappingstudies, including the European Commission funded NEEDSproject (New Energy Externalities Developments forSustainability) 65 or the IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008,projections by the European Renewable Energy Council publishedin April 2010 (“Re-Thinking 2050”) and discussions with expertsfrom different sectors of the renewable energy industry.62references60 RAGDEN, P ET AL., 2006, PG 18.61 HEDDLE, G ET AL., 2003, PG 17.62 PARFOMAK, P & FOLGER, P, 2008, PG 5 AND 12.63 RUBIN ET AL., 2005B, PG 4444.64 NEIJ, L, ‘COST DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES FOR POWER GENERATION - A STUDY BASEDON EXPERIENCE CURVES AND COMPLEMENTARY BOTTOM-UP ASSESSMENTS’, ENERGY POLICY 36(2008), 2200-2211.65 WWW.NEEDS-PROJECT.ORG.

image AN EXCAVATOR DIGS A HOLE AT GUAZHOUWIND FARM CONSTRUCTION SITE, CHINA, WHERE ITIS PLANNED TO BUILD 134 WINDMILLS.© GP/MARKEL REDONDO4.8.1 photovoltaics (PV)The worldwide photovoltaics (PV) market has been growing at over40% per annum in recent years and the contribution is starting tomake a significant contribution to electricity generation.Photovoltaics are important because of their decentralised/centralised character, its flexibility for use in an urban environmentand huge potential for cost reduction. The PV industry has beenincreasingly exploiting this potential during the last few years,with installation prices more than halving in the last few years.Current development is focused on improving existing modules andsystem components by increasing their energy efficiency andreducing material usage. Technologies like PV thin film (usingalternative semiconductor materials) or dye sensitive solar cellsare developing quickly and present a huge potential for costreduction. The mature technology crystalline silicon, with a provenlifetime of 30 years, is continually increasing its cell and moduleefficiency (by 0.5% annually), whereas the cell thickness israpidly decreasing (from 230 to 180 microns over the last fiveyears). Commercial module efficiency varies from 14 to 21%,depending on silicon quality and fabrication process.The learning factor for PV modules has been fairly constant overthe last 30 years with costs reducing by 20% each time theinstalled capacity doubles, indicating a high rate of technicallearning. Assuming a globally installed capacity of about 1,500 GWbetween 2030 and 2040 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario withan electricity output of 2,600 TWh/a, generation costs of around$ 5-10 cents/kWh (depending on the region) will be achieved.During the following five to ten years, PV will become competitivewith retail electricity prices in many parts of the world, andcompetitive with fossil fuel costs around 2030. Cost data applied inthis study is shown in Table 4.7. In the long term, additional costsfor the integration into the power supply system of up to 25% ofPV investment have been taken into account (estimation for localbatteries and load and generation management measures).4.8.2 concentrating solar power (CSP)Solar thermal ‘concentrating’ power stations (CSP) can only usedirect sunlight and are therefore dependent on very sunnylocations. North Africa, for example, has a technical potential forthis technology which far exceeds regional demand. The varioussolar thermal technologies (detailed in Chapter 9) have goodprospects for further development and cost reductions. Because oftheir more simple design, ‘Fresnel’ collectors are considered as anoption for additional cost trimming. The efficiency of centralreceiver systems can be increased by producing compressed air at atemperature of up to 1,000°C, which is then used to run acombined gas and steam turbine.Thermal storage systems are a way for CSP electricity generatorsto reduce costs. The Spanish Andasol 1 plant, for example, isequipped with molten salt storage with a capacity of 7.5 hours. Ahigher level of full load operation can be realised by using a thermalstorage system and a large collector field. Although this leads tohigher investment costs, it reduces the cost of electricity generation.Depending on the level of irradiation and mode of operation, it isexpected that long term future electricity generation costs of$ 6-10 cents/kWh can be achieved. This presupposes rapid marketintroduction in the next few years. CSP investment costs assumedfor this study and shown in Table 4.8 include costs for anincreasing storage capacity up to 12 hours per day and additionalsolar fields up to solar multiple 3, achieving a maximum of 6,500full load hours per year.4scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIEStable 4.7: photovoltaics (PV) cost assumptionsINCLUDING ADDITIONAL COSTS FOR GRID INTEGRATION OF UP TO 25% OF PV INVESTMENTtable 4.8: concentrating solar power (CSP) cost assumptionsINCLUDING COSTS FOR HEAT STORAGE AND ADDITIONAL SOLAR FIELDSSCENARIO2009201520202030 2040 2050SCENARIO2009201520202030 2040 2050E[R]Investment costs ($/kWp)O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a)E[R]Investment costs ($/kWp)O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a)3,000432,300381,650211,28015 1,04014 1,060159,3004208,1003306,6002655,750229 5,300211 4,800193O & M = Operation and maintenance.O & M = Operation and maintenance.63

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKscenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES44.8.3 wind powerWithin a short period of time, the dynamic development of windpower has resulted in the establishment of a flourishing globalmarket. In Europe, favourable policy incentives were the earlydrivers for the global wind market. However, since 2009 more thanthree quarters of the annual capacity installed was outside Europeand this trend is likely to continue. The boom in demand for windpower technology has nonetheless led to supply constraints. As aconsequence, the cost of new systems has increased. The industry iscontinuously expanding production capacity, however, so it isalready resolving the bottlenecks in the supply chain. Taking intoaccount market development projections, learning curve analysisand industry expectations, we assume that investment costs forwind turbines will reduce by 25% for onshore and more than 50%for offshore installations up to 2050. Additional costs for gridintegration of up to 25% of investment has been taken intoaccount also in the cost data for wind power shown in Table 4.9.4.8.4 biomassThe crucial factor for the economics of using biomass for energy isthe cost of the feedstock, which today ranges from a negative forwaste wood (based on credit for waste disposal costs avoided)through inexpensive residual materials to the more expensiveenergy crops. The resulting spectrum of energy generation costs iscorrespondingly broad. One of the most economic options is the useof waste wood in steam turbine combined heat and power (CHP)plants. Gasification of solid biomass, on the other hand, which hasa wide range of applications, is still relatively expensive. In the longterm it is expected that using wood gas both in micro CHP units(engines and fuel cells) and in gas-and-steam power plants willhave the most favourable electricity production costs. Convertingcrops into ethanol and ‘bio diesel’ made from rapeseed methyl ester(RME) has become increasingly important in recent years, forexample in Brazil, the USA and Europe – although its climatebenefit is disputed. Processes for obtaining synthetic fuels frombiogenic synthesis gases will also play a larger role.A large potential for exploiting modern technologies exists in Latinand North America, Europe and Eurasia, either in stationaryappliances or the transport sector. In the long term, OECD Europeand Eastern Europe/Eurasia could realise 20-50% of the potentialfor biomass from energy crops, whilst biomass use in all the otherregions will have to rely on forest residues, industrial wood wasteand straw. In Latin America, North America and Africa inparticular, an increasing residue potential will be available.In other regions, such as the Middle East and all Asian regions,increased use of biomass is restricted, either due to a generally lowavailability or already high traditional use. For the latter, usingmodern, more efficient technologies will improve the sustainabilityof current usage and will have positive side effects, such asreducing indoor pollution and heavy workloads currently associatedwith traditional biomass use.table 4.9: wind power cost assumptionsINCLUDING ADDITIONAL COSTS FOR GRID INTEGRATION OF UP TO 25% OF INVESTMENTtable 4.10: biomass cost assumptionsSCENARIO2009201520202030 2040 2050SCENARIO2009201520202030 2040 2050E[R]Wind turbine offshoreInvestment costs ($/kWp)O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a)Wind turbine onshoreInvestment costs ($/kWp)O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a)E[R]6,000 5,100 3,800 3,000 2,700 2,350230 205 161 131 124 1071,800 1,500 1,290 1,280 1,300 1,35064 55 55 56 59 61Biomass power plantInvestment costs ($/kWp)O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a)Biomass CHPInvestment costs ($/kWp)O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a)3,3502015,7003973,1001855,0503543,0001754,4003102,8001693,8502702,7001623,5502502,6501663,380237O & M = Operation and maintenance.O & M = Operation and maintenance.64

image ANDASOL 1 SOLAR POWER STATION IS EUROPE’SFIRST COMMERCIAL PARABOLIC TROUGH SOLAR POWERPLANT. IT WILL SUPPLY UP TO 200,000 PEOPLE WITHCLIMATE-FRIENDLY ELECTRICITY AND SAVE ABOUT149,000 TONNES OF CARBON DIOXIDE PER YEARCOMPARED WITH A MODERN COAL POWER PLANT.© GP/MARKEL REDONDO4.8.5 geothermalGeothermal energy has long been used worldwide for supplyingheat, and since the beginning of the last century for electricitygeneration. Geothermally generated electricity was previouslylimited to sites with specific geological conditions, but furtherintensive research and development work widened potential sites.In particular the creation of large underground heat exchangesurfaces - Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) - and theimprovement of low temperature power conversion, for examplewith the Organic Rankine Cycle, could make it possible toproduce geothermal electricity anywhere. Advanced heat andpower cogeneration plants will also improve the economics ofgeothermal electricity.A large part of the costs for a geothermal power plant comefrom deep underground drilling, so further development ofinnovative drilling technology is expected. Assuming a globalaverage market growth for geothermal power capacity of 15%per year up to 2020, adjusting to 12% up to 2030 and still 7%per year beyond 2030, the result would be a cost reductionpotential of more than 60% by 2050:• for conventional geothermal power (without heat credits), from$ 15 cents/kWh to about $ 9 cents/kWh;• for EGS, despite the presently high figures (about $ 20-30cents/kWh), electricity production costs - depending on the creditsfor heat supply - are expected to come down to around$ 8 cents/kWh in the long term.Because of its non-fluctuating supply and a grid load operatingalmost 100% of the time, geothermal energy is considered to bea key element in a future supply structure based on renewablesources. Up to now we have only used a marginal part of thepotential. Shallow geothermal drilling, for example, can deliverenergy for heating and cooling at any time anywhere, and can beused for thermal energy storage.4.8.6 ocean energyOcean energy, particularly offshore wave energy, is a significantresource and has the potential to satisfy an important percentageof electricity supply worldwide. Globally, the potential of oceanenergy has been estimated at around 90,000 TWh/year. The most4significant advantages are the vast availability and highpredictability of the resource and a technology with very lowvisual impact and no CO2 emissions. Many different concepts anddevices have been developed, including taking energy from thetides, waves, currents and both thermal and saline gradientresources. Many of these are in an advanced phase of researchand development, large scale prototypes have been deployed inreal sea conditions and some have reached pre-marketdeployment. There are a few grid connected, fully operationalcommercial wave and tidal generating plants.The cost of energy from initial tidal and wave energy farms hasbeen estimated to be in the range of $ 25-95 cents/kWh 66 , and forinitial tidal stream farms in the range of $ 14-28 cents/kWh.Generation costs of $ 8-10 cents/kWh are expected by 2030. Keyareas for development will include concept design, optimisation ofthe device configuration, reduction of capital costs by exploring theuse of alternative structural materials, economies of scale andlearning from operation. According to the latest research findings,the learning factor is estimated to be 10-15% for offshore waveand 5-10% for tidal stream. In the long term, ocean energy has thepotential to become one of the most competitive and cost effectiveforms of generation. In the next few years a dynamic marketpenetration is expected, following a similar curve to wind energy.Because of the early development stage any future cost estimatesfor ocean energy systems are uncertain. Present cost estimates arebased on analysis from the European NEEDS project. 67scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIEStable 4.11: geothermal cost assumptionstable 4.12: ocean energy cost assumptionsSCENARIO2009201520202030 2040 2050SCENARIO2009201520202030 2040 2050E[R]Geothermal power plantInvestment costs ($/kWp)O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a)13,50063711,1005389,3004186,400318 5,300297 4,550281E[R]Geothermal power plantInvestment costs ($/kWp)O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a)5,9002374,6501853,3001322,30091 1,90077 1,70068O & M = Operation and maintenance.O & M = Operation and maintenance.references66 G.J. DALTON, T. LEWIS (2011): PERFORMANCE AND ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF 5 WAVEENERGY DEVICES OFF THE WEST COAST OF IRELAND; EWTEC 2011.67 WWW.NEEDS-PROJECT.ORG.65

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKscenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE HEATING AND COOLING TECHNOLOGIES44.8.7 hydro powerHydropower is a mature technology with a significant part of its globalresource already exploited. There is still, however, some potential leftboth for new schemes (especially small scale run-of-river projects withlittle or no reservoir impoundment) and for repowering of existing sites.There is likely to be some more potential for hydropower with theincreasing need for flood control and the maintenance of water supplyduring dry periods. Sustainable hydropower makes an effort tointegrate plants with river ecosystems while reconciling ecology witheconomically attractive power generation.table 4.13: hydro power cost assumptionsSCENARIOE[R]Investment costs ($/kWp)O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a)O & M = Operation and maintenance.20093,30013220153,40013620203,5001412030 2040 20503,650 3,500 3,900146 152 156figure 4.2: future development of investment costs forrenewable energy technologies (NORMALISED TO 2010 COST LEVELS)% of 2009 cost1008060402002009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050PVWIND TURBINE ONSHOREWIND TURBINE OFFSHOREBIOMASS POWER PLANTBIOMASS CHPGEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT•SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT (CSP)OCEAN ENERGY POWER PLANT4.8.8 summary of renewable energy cost developmentFigure 4.2 summarises the cost trends for renewable powertechnologies derived from the respective learning curves. It isimportant to note that the expected cost reduction is not afunction of time, but of cumulative capacity (production of units),so dynamic market developments are required. Most of thetechnologies will be able to reduce their specific investment coststo between 30% and 60% of current levels once they haveachieved full maturity (after 2040).Reduced investment costs for renewable energy technologies leaddirectly to reduced electricity generation costs, as shown in Figure4.3. Generation costs in 2009 were around $ 8 to 35 cents/kWhfor the most important technologies, with the exception ofphotovoltaic. In the long term, costs are expected to converge ataround $ 6 to 12 cents/kWh (examples for OECD Europe). Theseestimates depend on site-specific conditions such as the local windregime or solar irradiation, the availability of biomass atreasonable prices or the credit granted for heat supply in the caseof combined heat and power generation.figure 4.3: expected development of electricitygeneration costs from fossil fuel and renewable optionsEXAMPLE FOR OECD EUROPE0.400.350.300.250.200.150.100.05$ ct/kWh 0PVWIND TURBINE ONSHOREWIND TURBINE OFFSHOREBIOMASS CHPGEOTHERMAL (WITH HEAT CREDITS)•SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT (CSP)OCEAN ENERGY POWER PLANT2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205066

image A SATELLITE IMAGE OF EYJAFJALLAJOKULLVOLCANO ERUPTION, ICELAND, 2010.© DIGITAL GLOBE4.9 cost projections for renewableheating technologiesRenewable heating has the longest tradition of all renewabletechnologies. In a joint survey EREC and DLR carried out asurvey on renewable heating technologies in Europe (see alsotechnology chapter 9). The report analyses installation costs ofrenewable heating technologies, ranging from direct solar collectorsystems to geothermal and ambient heat applications and biomasstechnologies. Some technologies are already mature and competeon the market – especially simple heating systems in the domesticsector. However, more sophisticated technologies, which canprovide higher shares of heat demand from renewable sources, arestill under development. Costs of different technologies show quitea large range depending not only on the maturity of thetechnology but also on the complexity of the system as well as thelocal conditions. Market barriers slow down the furtherimplementation and cost reduction of renewable heating systems,especially for heating networks. Nevertheless, significant learningrates can be expected if renewable heating is increasinglyimplemented as projected in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.4.9.1 solar thermal technologiesSolar collectors depend on direct solar irradiation, so the yieldstrongly depends on the location. In very sunny regions even verysimple collectors can provide hot water to households at very lowcost. In Europe, thermosiphon systems can provide total hotwater demand in households at around 400 €/m 2 installationcosts. In regions with less sun, where additional space heating isneeded, installation cost for pumped systems are twice as high. Inthese areas, economies of scales can decrease solar heating costssignificantly. Large scale solar collector system are known from250-600 €/m 2 , depending on the share of solar energy in thewhole heating system and the level of storage required. Whilethose cost assumptions were transferred to all OECD Regions andthe Eastern European Economies, a lower cost level forhouseholds was assumed in very sunny or developing regions.4.9.2 deep geothermal applications(Deep) geothermal heat from aquifers or reservoirs can be useddirectly in hydrothermal heating plants to supply heat demandclose to the plant or in a district heating network for severaldifferent types of heat (see Chapter 8). Due to the high drillingcosts deep geothermal energy is mostly feasibly for largeapplications in combination with heat networks. It is alreadyeconomic feasible and has been in use for a long time, whereaquifers can be found near the surface, e.g. in the Pacific Island oralong the Pacific ring of fire. Also in Europe deep geothermalapplications are being developed for heating purposes at investmentcosts from 500€/kWth (shallow) to 3000 €/kWth (deep), with thecosts strongly dependent on the drilling depth. As deep geothermalsystems require a high technology level, European cost assumptionswere transferred to all regions worldwide.4.9.3 heat pumpsHeat pumps typically provide hot water or space heat for heatingsystems with relatively low supply temperature or can serve as asupplement to other heating technologies. They have becomeincreasingly popular for underfloor heating in buildings in Europe.Economies of scale are less important than for deep geothermal, sothere is focus on small household applications with investment costs inEurope ranging from 500-1,600 €/kW for ground water systems andfrom 1,200-3,000 €/kW for ground source or aerothermal systems.4.9.4 biomass applicationsThere is broad portfolio of modern technologies for heat productionfrom biomass, ranging from small scale single room stoves to heatingor CHP-plants in MW scale. Investments costs in Europe show asimilar variety: simple log wood stoves can be obtained from 100€/kW, more sophisticated automated heating systems that cover thewhole heat demand of a building are significantly more expensive.Log wood or pellet boilers range from 400-1200 €/kW, with largeapplications being cheaper than small systems. Considering thepossible applications of this wide range of technologies especially inthe household sector, higher investment costs were assumed forhightech regions of the OECD, the Eastern European Economies andMiddle East. Sunny regions with low space heat demand as well asdeveloping regions are covered with very low investment costs.Economy of scales apply to heating plants above 500kW, withinvestment cost between 400-700 €/kW. Heating plants can deliverprocess heat or provide whole neighbourhoods with heat. Even if heatnetworks demand additional investment, there is great potential touse solid biomass for heat generation in both small and large heatingcentres linked to local heating networks.Cost reductions expected vary strongly within each technologysector, depending on the maturity of a specific technology. E.g.Small wood stoves will not see significant cost reductions, whilethere is still learning potential for automated pellet heating systems.Cost for simple solar collectors for swimming pools might bealready optimised, whereas integration in large systems is neithertechnological nor economical mature. Table 4.14 shows averagedevelopment pathways for a variety of heat technology options.table 4.14: overview over expected investment costspathways for heating technologies IN $/KWGeothermal distict heating*Heat pumpsLow tech solar collectorsSmall solarcollector systemsLarge solarcollector systemsSolar district heating*Low tech biomass stovesBiomass heating systemsBiomass district heating** WITHOUT NETWORK20152,6501,9901401,1709501,08013093066020202,5201,9301401,1209101,03013090064020302,2501,8101401,01081092013085060020402,0001,71014089072082013080057020501,7601,600140750610690130750530674scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE HEATING AND COOLING TECHNOLOGIES

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKscenarios for a future energy supply | ASSUMPTIONS FOR FOSSIL FUEL PHASE OUT44.10 assumptions for fossil fuel phase outMore than 80% of the current energy supply is based on fossilfuels. Oil dominates the entire transport sector; oil and gas makeup the heating sector and coal is the most-used fuel for power.Each sector has different renewable energy and energy efficiencytechnologies combinations which depend on the locally availableresources, infrastructure and to some extent, lifestyle. Therenewable energy technology pathways used in this scenario arebased on currently available “off-the-shelf” technologies, marketsituations and market projections developed from renewableindustry associations such as the Global Wind Energy Council, theEuropean Photovoltaic Industry Association and the EuropeanRenewable Energy Council, the DLR and Greenpeace International.In line with this modelling, the Energy [R]evolution aims to mapout a clear pathway to phase-out oil and gas in the long term. Thispathway has been identified on the basis of a detailed analysis ofthe global conventional oil resources, current infrastructure ofthose industries, the estimated production capacities of existing oilwells in the light of projected production decline rates and theinvestment plans known by end 2011. Those remaining fossil fuelresources between 2012 and 2050 form the oil pathway so no newdeep sea and Arctic oil exploration, no oil shale and tar sandmining are required for two reasons:figure 4.4: global oil production 1950 to 2011and projection till 2050• First and foremost, to limit carbon emissions to save the climate.• Second, financial resources must flow from 2012 onwards inthe development of new and larger markets for renewableenergy technologies and energy efficiency to avoid “locking-in”new fossil fuel infrastructure.4.10.1 oil – production decline assumptionsFigure 4.4 shows the remaining production capacities with anannual production decline between 2.5% and 5% and theadditional production capacities assuming all new projectsplanned for 2012 to 2020 will go ahead. Even with new projects,the amount of remaining conventional oil is very limited andtherefore a transition towards a low oil demand pattern isessential.4.10.2 coal – production decline assumptionsWhile there is an urgent need for a transition away from oil andgas to avoid “locking-in” investments in new production wells, theclimate is the clearly limiting factor for the coal resource, not itsavailability. All existing coal mines – even without new expansionsof mines – could produce more coal, but its burning puts theworld on a catastrophic climate change pathway.figure 4.5: coal scenario: base decline of 2% per yearand new projects200,000180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 0E[R] OIL DEMAND180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 0E[R] COAL DEMAND1950196019701980199020002010202020302040205019501960197019801990200020102020203020402050NEW PROJECTS BITUMENNEW PROJECTS OFFSHORENEW PROJECTS ONSHORE•PRODUCTION DECLINE UNCERTAINTYGLOBAL PRODUCTION2000NEW PROJECTSFSUAFRICALATIN AMERICANON OECD ASIAINDIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA•OECD EUROPEOECD NORTH AMERICA68

image A PRAWN SEED FARM ON MAINLANDINDIA’S SUNDARBANS COAST LIES FLOODED AFTERCYCLONE AILA. INUNDATING AND DESTROYINGNEARBY ROADS AND HOUSES WITH SALT WATER.© GP/PETER CATON4.11 review: greenpeace scenario projectionsof the pastGreenpeace has published numerous projections in cooperationwith Renewable Industry Associations and scientific institutionsin the past decade. This section provides an overview of theprojections between 2000 and 2011 and compares them withreal market developments and projections of the IEA WorldEnergy Outlook – our Reference scenario.4.11.1 the development of the global wind industryGreenpeace and the European Wind Energy Association published“Windforce 10” for the first time in 1999– a global marketprojection for wind turbines until 2030. Since then, an updatedprognosis has been published every second year. Since 2006 thereport has been renamed to “Global Wind Energy Outlook” witha new partner – the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) – anew umbrella organisation of all regional wind industryassociations. Figure 4.6 shows the projections made each yearbetween 2000 and 2010 compared to the real market data. Thegraph also includes the first two Energy [R]evolution (ER)editions (published in 2007 and 2008) against the IEA’s windprojections published in World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2000,2002, 2005 and 2007.The projections from the “Wind force 10” and “Windforce 12”were calculated by BTM consultants, Denmark. “Windforce 10”(2001 - 2011) exact projection for the global wind marketpublished during this time, at 10% below the actual marketdevelopment. Also all following editions where around 10%above or below the real market. In 2006, the new “Global WindEnergy Outlook” had two different scenarios, a moderate and anadvanced wind power market projections calculated by GWECand Greenpeace International. The figures here show only theadvanced projections, as the moderate were too low. However,these very projections were the most criticised at the time, beingcalled “over ambitious” or even “impossible”.figure 4.6: wind power: short term prognosis vs real market development - global cummulative capacity250,000200,000150,000100,0004scenarios for a future energy supply | REVIEW: GREENPEACE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF THE PAST50,000MW020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010REAL17,40023,90031,10039,43147,62059,09174,05293,820120,291158,864197,637WF 10 (1999)21,51026,90133,37141,78152,71566,92985,407109,428140,656181,252WF 12 (2002)44,02557,30673,90894,660120,600151,728189,081233,905GWEO 2006 (Advanced)153,759GWEO 2008 (Advanced)186,309ER 2007156,149ER 2008163,855ADVANCED ER 2010IEA WEO 2000 (REF)17,40018,91020,42021,93023,44024,95026,46027,97029,48030,99032,500IEA WEO 2002 (REF)31,10034,08837,07540,06343,05046,03849,02552,01355,000IEA WEO 2005 (REF)59,09168,78178,47188,16197,851107,541IEA WEO 2007 (REF)93,820103,767113,713123,66069

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKscenarios for a future energy supply | REVIEW: GREENPEACE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF THE PAST4In contrast, the IEA “Current Policy” projections seriously underestimated the wind industry’s ability to increase manufacturingcapacity and reduce costs. In 2000, the IEA WEO published aprojections of global installed capacity for wind turbines of32,500 MW for 2010. This capacity had been connected to thegrid by early 2003, only two-and-a-half years later. By 2010, theglobal wind capacity was close to 200,000 MW; around six timesmore than the IEA’s assumption a decade earlier.figure 4.7: wind power: long term market projects until 20303,000,0002,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,000MW 0Only time will tell if the GPI/DLR/GWEC longer-term projectionsfor the global wind industry will remain close to the real market.However the International Energy Agency’s World EnergyOutlook projections over the past decade have been constantlyincreased and keep coming close to our progressive growth rates.WF 10 (1999)WF 12 (2002)GWEO 2006 (Advanced)GWEO 2008 (Advanced)GWEO 2008 (Advanced)E[R] 2007E[R] 2008ADVANCED E[R] 20102010181,252233,905153,759186,3090156,149163,8552015537,059610,000391,077485,834533,233552,973398,716493,54220201,209,4661,261,1571,074,8351,080,8861,071,415949,796893,3171,140,49220302,545,2322,571,0002,110,4012,375,0002,341,9841,834,2861,621,7042,241,080IEA WEO 2000 (REF)IEA WEO 2002 (REF)IEA WEO 2005 (REF)IEA WEO 2007 (REF)IEA WEO 2009 (REF)IEA WEO 2010 (REF)IEA WEO 2010 (450ppm)IEA WEO 2011 (REF)IEA WEO 2011 (450ppm)32,50055,000107,541123,660158,864197,637197,637238,351238,35141,55083,500162,954228,205292,754337,319394,819379,676449,67650,600112,000218,367345,521417,198477,000592,000521,000661,000195,000374,694440,117595,365662,0001,148,000749,0001,349,00070

image NUCLEAR REACTOR IN LIANYUNGANG, CHINA.© HANSEN/DREAMSTIME4.11.2 the development of the global solarphotovoltaic industryInspired by the successful work with the European Wind EnergyAssociation (EWEA), Greenpeace began working with theEuropean Photovoltaic Industry Association to publish “SolarGeneration 10” – a global market projection for solarphotovoltaic technology up to 2020 for the first time in 2001.Since then, six editions have been published and EPIA andGreenpeace have continuously improved the calculationmethodology with experts from both organisations.Figure 4.8 shows the actual projections for each year between2001 and 2010 compared to the real market data, against thefirst two Energy [R]evolution editions (published in 2007 and2008) and the IEA’s solar projections published in World EnergyOutlook (WEO) 2000, 2002, 2005 and 2007. The IEA did notmake specific projections for solar photovoltaic in the firsteditions analysed in the research, instead the category“Solar/Tidal/Other” are presented in Figure 4.8 and 4.9.figure 4.8: photovoltaics: short term prognosis vs real market development - global cummulative capacity45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000MW 04scenarios for a future energy supply | REVIEW: GREENPEACE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF THE PAST20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010REAL1,4281,7622,2362,8183,9395,3616,9569,55015,67522,87839,678SG I 20012,2052,7423,5464,8796,5498,49811,28517,82525,688SG II 20045,0266,7728,83311,77518,55226,512SG III 20067,3729,69813,00520,30528,428SG IV 2007 (Advanced)9,33712,71420,01428,862SG V 2008 (Advanced)13,76020,83525,447SG VI 2010 (Advanced)36,629ER 200722,694ER 200820,606ADVANCED ER 2010IEA WEO 2000 (REF)1,4281,6251,8222,0202,2172,4142,6112,8083,0064,5163,400IEA WEO 2002 (REF)2,2362,9573,6774,3985,1185,8396,5597,2808,000IEA WEO 2005 (REF)5,3615,5745,7876,0006,2136,425IEA WEO 2007 (REF)95509,5759,6009,62571

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKscenarios for a future energy supply | REVIEW: GREENPEACE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF THE PAST4In contrast to the wind projections, all the SolarGenerationprojections have been too conservative. The total installedcapacity in 2010 was close to 40,000 MW about 30% higherthan projected in SolarGeneration published ten years earlier.Even SolarGeneration 5, published in 2008, under-estimated thepossible market growth of photovoltaic in the advanced scenario.In contrast, the IEA WEO 2000 estimations for 2010 werereached in 2004.figure 4.9: photovoltaic: long term market projects until 20302,000,0001,800,0001,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,000MW 0The long-term projections for solar photovoltaic are moredifficult than for wind because the costs have droppedsignificantly faster than projected. For some OECD countries,solar has reached grid parity with fossil fuels in 2012 and othersolar technologies, such as concentrated solar power plants(CSP), are also headed in that direction. Therefore, futureprojections for solar photovoltaic do not just depend on costimprovements, but also on available storage technologies. Gridintegration can actually be a bottle-neck to solar that is nowexpected much earlier than estimated.2010201520202030SG I 2001SG II 2004SG III 2006SG IV 2007 (Advanced)SG V 2008 (Advanced)SG VI 2010 (Advanced)ER 2007ER 2008ADVANCED ER 201025,68826,51228,42828,86225,44736,62922,69420,60675,600102,400134,752151,486179,44274,325107,640207,000282,350275,700240,641277,524737,173198,897268,789439,2691,271,7731,864,2191,844,937727,816921,3321,330,243IEA WEO 2000 (REF)IEA WEO 2002 (REF)IEA WEO 2005 (REF)IEA WEO 2007 (REF)IEA WEO 2009 (REF)IEA WEO 2010 (REF)IEA WEO 2010 (450ppm)IEA WEO 2011 (REF)IEA WEO 2011 (450ppm)3,4008,0006,4259,62522,87839,67839,67867,30067,3005,50013,00014,35622,94644,45270,33988,839114,150143,6507,60018,00022,28648,54779,878101,000138,000161,000220,00056,00054,62586,055183,723206,000485,000268,000625,00072

image AERIAL VIEW OF SUNCOR MILLENNIUM TARSANDS MINE, UPGRADER AND TAILINGS POND INTHE BOREAL FOREST NORTH OF FORT MCMURRAY.© JIRI REZAC/GP4.12 how does the energy [r]evolution scenariocompare to other scenarios?The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published aground-breaking new “Special Report on Renewables” (SRREN)in May 2011. This report showed the latest and mostcomprehensive analysis of scientific reports on all renewableenergy resources and global scientifically accepted energyscenarios. The Energy [R]evolution was among three scenarioschosen as an indicative scenario for an ambitious renewableenergy pathway. The following summarises the IPCC’s view.Four future pathways, from the following models wereassessed intensively:• International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2009,(IEA WEO 2009)• Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution 2010, (ER 2010)• (ReMIND-RECIPE)• (MiniCam EMF 22)The World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency wasused as an example baseline scenario (least amount of developmentof renewable energy) and the other three treated as “mitigationscenarios”, to address climate change risks. The four scenariosprovide substantial additional information on a number of technicaldetails, represent a range of underlying assumptions and followdifferent methodologies. They provide different renewable energydeployment paths, including Greenpeace’s “optimistic applicationpath for renewable energy assuming that . . . the current highdynamic (increase rates) in the sector can be maintained”.The IPCC notes that scenario results are determined partly byassumptions, but also might depend on the underlying modellingarchitecture and model specific restrictions. The scenariosanalysed use different modelling architectures, demandprojections and technology portfolios for the supply side. The fullresults are provided in Table 4.15, but in summary:• The IEA baseline has a high demand projection with lowrenewable energy development.• ReMind-RECIPE, MiniCam EMF 22 scenarios portrays a highdemand expectation and significant increase of renewable energyis combined with the possibility to employ CCS and nuclear.• The ER 2010 relies on and low demand (due to a significantincrease of energy efficiency) combined with high renewableenergy deployment, no CCS employment and a global nuclearphase-out by 2045.Both population increase and GDP development are majordriving forces on future energy demand and therefore at leastindirectly determining the resulting shares of renewable energy.The IPCC analysis shows which models use assumptions based onoutside inputs and what results are generated from within themodels. All scenarios take a 50% increase of the globalpopulation into account on baseline 2009. Regards grossdomestic product (GDP), all assume or calculate a significantincrease in terms of the GDP. The IEA WEO 2009 and the ER2010 model uses forecasts of International Monetary Fund (IMF2009) and the Organisation of Economic Co-Operation andDevelopment (OECD) as inputs to project GSP. The other twoscenarios calculate GDP from within their model.table 4.15: overview of key parameter of the illustrative scenarios based on assumptionsthat are exogenous to the models respective endogenous model resultsCATEGORYSCENARIO NAMEMODELUNITTechnology pathwayRenewablesCCSNuclearPopulationbillionGDP/capitak$2005/capitaInput/Indogenous model resultsEnergy demand (direct equivalent) EJ/yrEnergy intensityMJ/$2005Renewable energy%Fossil & industrial CO2 emissions Gt CO2/yCarbon intensitykg CO2/GJSTATUSQUO20076.6710.94696.51327.458.4BASELINEIEA WEO 20092030al++8.3117.46744.51438.557.12050(1)all++8.3117.46744.51438.557.1CAT III+IV(>450-660PPM)2030generecsolar++8.3212.45905.73226.645.0ReMindReMind2050generecsolar++9.1918.26744.04815.823.52030generec solar -no ocean energy++8.079.76087.82429.949.2CAT I+II(no oceanenergy++8.8213.96905.63112.418.0CAT I+II(

key results of the energy [r]evolution scenario5GLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA“for us todevelop in asustainable way,strong measure haveto be taken to combatclimate change”HU JINTAOPRESIDENT OF CHINA© NASA/JESSE ALLEN, ROBERT SIMMONimage SPRAWLING OVER PARTS OF SAUDI ARABIA, YEMEN, OMAN, AND THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, THE EMPTY QUARTER—OR RUB’ AL KHALI—IS THE WORLD’S LARGESTSAND SEA. ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF FRANCE, THE EMPTY QUARTER HOLDS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH SAND AS THE ENTIRE SAHARA DESERT. MUCH OF THE LAND IN THIS REGIONACTUALLY LIES AT AN ELEVATION BELOW SEA LEVEL, BUT NEAR THE YEMEN BORDER, DUNES CAN REACH AN ALTITUDE OF 1,200 METERS ABOVE SEA LEVEL.74

image FOREST CREEK WIND FARM PRODUCING 2.3MW WITH WIND TURBINES MADE BY SIEMENS. AWORKER WORKING ON TOP OF THE WIND TURBINE.© GP/ZENIT/LANGROCKThe development of future global energy demand is determinedby three key factors:• Population development: the number of people consumingenergy or using energy services.• Economic development, for which Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is the most commonly used indicator: in general anincrease in GDP triggers an increase in energy demand.• Energy intensity: how much energy is required to producea unit of GDP.The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario arebased on the same projections of population and economicdevelopment. The future development of energy intensity, however,differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking intoaccount the measures to increase energy efficiency under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario.global: projection of energy intensityAn increase in economic activity and a growing population does notnecessarily have to result in an equivalent increase in energydemand. There is still a large potential for exploiting energyefficiency measures. Under the Reference scenario we assume thatenergy intensity will be reduced by 1.7% on average per year,leading to a reduction in final energy demand per unit of GDP ofabout 50% between 2009 and 2050. Under the Energy[R]evolution scenario it is assumed that active policy and technicalsupport for energy efficiency measures will lead to an even higherreduction in energy intensity of almost 70% until 2050.global: development of global energy demandCombining the projections on population development, GDPgrowth and energy intensity results in future developmentpathways for the world’s energy demand. These are shown inFigure 5.2 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolutionscenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energydemand increases by 61% from 499,024 PJ/a in 2009 to about805,600 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario,demand increases by 10% until 2020 and decreases by 4%afterwards and it is expected by 2050 to reach 481,050 PJ/a.The accelerated increase in energy efficiency, which is a crucialprerequisite for achieving a sufficiently large share of renewableenergy sources in our energy supply, is beneficial not only for theenvironment but also for economics. Taking into account the fulllifecycle costs, in most cases the implementation of energyefficiency measures saves money compared to creating anadditional energy supply. A dedicated energy efficiency strategytherefore helps to compensate in part for the additional costsrequired during the market introduction phase of renewableenergy technologies.5key results | GLOBAL - PROJECTION OF ENERGY INTENSITY & ENERGY DEMANDfigure 5.1: global: final energy intensity under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario4.03.53.02.52.01.51.50.5MJ/$GDP 0.02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050• REFERENCEENERGY [R]EVOLUTION75

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKglobalGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | GLOBAL - DEMAND5global: energy demand by sectorUnder the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand isexpected to increase disproportionately, with households andservices the main source of growing consumption (see Figure5.3). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, aneven higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demandof around 40,900 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Referencescenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about12,800 TWh/a.This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular byintroducing highly efficient electronic devices using the bestavailable technology in all demand sectors. Deployment of solararchitecture in both residential and commercial buildings willhelp to curb the growing demand for active air conditioning.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger than inthe electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario,final demand for heat supply can eventually be reducedsignificantly (see Figure 5.5). Compared to the Referencescenario, consumption equivalent to 46,500 PJ/a is avoidedthrough efficiency measures by 2050. As a result of energyrelated renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, aswell as the introduction of low energy standards, ‘passive houses’or even ‘energyplus-houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of thesame comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a muchlower future energy demand.figure 5.2: global: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000PJ/a 0‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORTREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20092015202020302040205076

image THE PS20 SOLAR TOWER PLANT SITS AT SANLUCAR LA MAYOR OUTSIDESEVILLE, SPAIN. THE FIRST COMMERCIAL SOLAR TOWER PLANT IN THE WORLD ISOWNED BY THE SPANISH COMPANY SOLUCAR (ABENGOA) AND CAN PROVIDEELECTRICITY FOR UP TO 6,000 HOMES. SOLUCAR (ABENGOA) PLANS TO BUILD ATOTAL OF 9 SOLAR TOWERS OVER THE NEXT 7 YEARS TO PROVIDE ELECTRICITY FORAN ESTIMATED 180,000 HOMES.image MAINTENANCE WORKERS FIX THE BLADES OF A WINDMILL AT GUAZHOUWIND FARM NEAR YUMEN IN GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA.© GP/MARKEL REDONDO© GP/MARKEL REDONDOfigure 5.3: global: development of electricity demand bysector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)150,000120,00090,00060,00030,000figure 5.5: global: development of heat demand bysector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)200,000160,000120,00080,00040,0005key results | GLOBAL - DEMANDPJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20502009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.4: global: development of the transport demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario140,000120,000100,000The energy demand in the industry sector will grow in bothscenarios. While the economic growth rates in the Reference andthe Energy [R]evolution scenario are identical, the growth of theoverall energy demand is different due to a faster increase of theenergy intensity in the alternative case. Decoupling economicgrowth with the energy demand is key to reach a sustainableenergy supply. By 2050, the Energy [R]evolution scenariorequires 40% less than the Reference scenario.80,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROADRAIL77

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKglobalGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | GLOBAL - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5global: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market is charaterised bya dynamically growing renewable energy market. This willcompensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce thenumber of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for gridstabilisation. By 2050, 94% of the electricity produced worldwidewill come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables –mainly wind, PV and geothermal energy – will contribute 60% ofelectricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects animmediate market development with high annual growth ratesachieving a renewable electricity share of 37% already by 2020and 61% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach7,400 GW in 2030 and 15,100 GW by 2050.Table 5.1 shows the global development of the differentrenewable technologies over time. Up to 2020 hydro and windwill remain the main contributors of the growing market share.After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complementedby electricity from photovoltaics solar thermal (CSP), oceanenergy and bioenergy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will leadto a high share of fluctuating power generation sources(photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 31% by 2030, therefore theexpansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) andstorage capacity will be required. The further expanison ofconventional power plants - especially coal in China and Indianeeds to slow down immediately and peak no later than 2025 inorder to avoid long term lock-in effects in coal the the relatedlong term CO2 emissions in the power sector.table 5.1: global: renewable electricity generation capacityunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolutionscenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200999599551511471471111191900001,2241,22420201,2501,246981625251,3571865124674111661542,0283,72420301,4251,3471552657542,908272192341,7642471441762,6227,39220401,5641,4282153909594,287374463513,335401,362133453,17911,59420501,6951,4842724901,1355,236476664714,548622,054186103,69915,088figure 5.6: global: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)50,00040,00030,00020,00010,000TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205078

image 23 YEAR OLD PARMARAM WORKS ON THE REVERSE OSMOSIS PLANT, AT THEMANTHAN CAMPUS IN KOTRI RAJASTHAN, INDIA. PARMARAM IS A DALIT AND HEGOT HIS PRIMARY EDUCATION AT THE NIGHT SCHOOL. AFTER SCHOOL, HEUNDERTOOK TRAINING IN CARPENTRY, FOLLOWED BY TRAINING IN WATER TESTINGAND AS A BAREFOOT SOLAR ENGINEER. HE ASSEMBLES, INSTALLS AND REPAIRSSOLAR LANTERNS AND FIXED SOLAR UNITS FOR VILLAGERS WHO NEED THEM. HEHAS ALSO BEEN OPERATING THE SOLAR-POWERED REVERE OSMOSIS PLANT ATMANTHAN CAMPUS.image WORKERS AT DAFENG POWER STATION, CHINA’S LARGEST SOLARPHOTOVOLTAIC-WIND HYBRID POWER STATION, WITH 220MW OF GRID-CONNECTEDCAPACITY, OF WHICH 20 MW IS SOLAR PV. LOCATED IN YANCHENG, JIANGSU PROVINCE,IT CAME INTO OPERATION ON DECEMBER 31, 2010 AND HAS 1,100 ANNUAL UTILIZATIONHOURS. EVERY YEAR IT CAN GENERATE 23 MILLION KW-H OF ELECTRICITY, ALLOWINGIT TO SAVE 7,000 TONS OF COAL AND 18,600 TONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS.© P. VISHWANATHAN/GP© GP/ZHIYONG FUglobal: future costs of electricity generationFigure 5.7 shows that the introduction of renewable technologiesunder the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases thecosts of electricity generation compared to the Referencescenario. This difference will be less than $ 0.6 cent/kWh up to2020. Any increase in fossil fuel prices beyond the projectiongiven in table 4.3, however, will reduce the gap. Because of thelower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generationcosts will become economically favourable under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be$ 7.9 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand,an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissionsresult in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s$ 2,364 billion per year to about $ 8,830 billion in 2050. Figure5.7 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not onlycomplies with CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabiliseenergy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energysupply to enewables lead to long term costs for electricity supplythat are 22% lower in 2050 than in the Reference scenario(including estimated costs for efficiency measures up to$ 4 ct/kWh).figure 5.7: global: total electricity supply costs andspecific electricity generation costs under two scenariosBn$/a10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00002009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050ct/kWh181614121086420global: future investments in the power sectorThe overall global level of investment required in new powerplants up to 2030 will be in the region of $ 11.5 trillion in theReference case and $ 20.1 trillion in the Energy [R]evolution. Amajor driving force for investment in new generation capacity willbe the replacement of the ageing fleet of power plants in OECDcountries and the build up of new power plants in developingcountries. Utilities and new players such as project developersand independent power producers base their technology choiceson current and future equipment costs and national energypolicies, in particular market liberalisation, renewable energy andCO2 reduction targets. Within Europe, the EU emissions tradingscheme could have a major impact on whether the majority ofinvestment goes into fossil fueled power plants or renewableenergy and co-generation. In developing countries, internationalfinancial institutions will play a major role in future technologychoices, as well as whether the investment costs for renewableenergy become competitive with conventional power plants.In regions with a good wind regime, for example, wind farms canalready produce electricity at the same cost levels as coal or gaspower plants. While solar photovoltaics already reach ‘grid parity’in many industrialized countries. It would require about$ 50,400 billion in investment in the power sector for theEnergy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (includinginvestments for replacement after the economic lifetime of theplants) - approximately $ 714 billion annual more than in theReference scenario.Under the Reference version, the levels of investment inconventional power plants add up to almost 49% whileapproximately 51% would be invested in renewable energy andcogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario the global investment would shift by 95% towardsrenewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share ofpower sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants.The average annual investment in the power sector under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be$ 1,260 billion.5key results | GLOBAL - ELECTRICITY GENERATION & FUTURE INVESTMENTSSPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])79

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKglobalGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAfigure 5.8: global: investment shares - referencescenario versus energy [r]evolution scenariofigure 5.9: global: change in cumulative powerplant investment5key results | GLOBAL - INVESTMENTREF 2011 - 2050Total $ 22,191 billion6% CHP17% NUCLEAR45% RENEWABLESUS$ billion40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000-5,00032% FOSSIL-10,000-15,000E[R] 2011 - 20505% FOSSIL10% CHP2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050 2011-2050•FOSSIL & NUCLEAR E[R] VS REFRENEWABLE E[R] VS REFTotal $ 50,401 billion85% RENEWABLESBecause renewable energy except biomasss has no fuel costs, however,the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a totalof about $ 52,800 billion up to 2050, or $ 1,320 billion per year. Thetotal fuel cost savings therefore would cover two times the totaladditional investments compared to the Reference scenario. Theserenewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricitywithout any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coaland gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.table 5.2: global: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savings underthe energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$2011 - 20202021 - 20302031 - 20402041 - 20502011 - 20502011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUMDIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesTotalbillion $billion $billion $-1,7804,5962,816-2,3108,0875,777-2,10810,8968,788-2,10810,8968,788-8,50836,72028,213-213918705CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilGasHard coalLigniteTotalbillion $/abillion $/abillion $/abillion $/abillion $/a304-209.1625427621,0881,8373,1521856,2621,2527,7317,15524516,3821,10716,88611,14025929,3903,75026,24422,07273152,79794656552181,32080

image A RICE FIELD DESTROYED BY SALT WATER FROM HUGE TIDAL SURGESDURING THE CYCLONE ALIA IN BALI ISLAND IN THE SUNDARBANS.image PORTLAND, IN THE STATE OF VICTORIA, WAS THE FIRST AUSTRALIAN COUNCILTO RECEIVE A DEVELOPMENT APPLICATION FOR WIND TURBINES AND NOW HASENOUGH IN THE SHIRE TO PROVIDE ENERGY FOR SEVERAL LOCAL TOWNS COMBINED.© GP/PETER CATON© GP/DEAN SEWELLglobal: heating supplyRenewables currently provide 25% of the global energy demand forheat supply, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass.In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 51% ofglobal total heat demand in 2030 and 91% in 2050. The lack ofdistrict heating networks is a severe structural barrier to the largescale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy as well asthe lack of specific renewable heating policy. Past experience showsthat it is easier to implement effective support instruments in thegrid-connected electricity sector than in the heat market, with itsmultitude of different actors. Dedicated support instruments arerequired to ensure a dynamic development.• Energy efficiency measures can decrease the demand for heatsupply by 23 % compared to the Reference scenario, in spite ofa growing global population, increasing economic activities andimproving living standards.• For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well asgeothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossil fuelfiredsystems.• The introduction of strict efficiency measures e.g. via strictbuilding standards and ambitious support programs forrenewable heating systems are needed to achieve economies ofscale within the next 5 to 10 years.Table 5.3 shows the worldwide development of the differentrenewable technologies for heating over time. Up to 2020biomass will remain the main contributor of the growing marketshare. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors anda growing share of geothermal energy and heat pumps will reducethe dependence on fossil fuels.table 5.3: global: renewable heating capacities under thereference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario INGWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200934,08534,0855465463423420034,97234,972202037,31140,3971,1007,7245255,942060438,93554,667203038,85642,5731,74320,00472515,93802,05441,32580,568204041,35643,6052,54335,2361,11032,02304,14545,009115,009205044,38040,3683,25545,0921,40047,48806,34349,035139,2925key results | GLOBAL - HEATING SUPPLYfigure 5.10: global: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ =REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)200,000180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205081

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKglobalGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | GLOBAL - FUTURE INVESTMENTS AND FUTURE EMPLOYMENT5global: future investments in the heat sectorAlso in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire a major revision of current investment strategies inheating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar andgeothermal and heat pump technologies need an enormousincrease in installations, if these potentials are to be tapped forthe heat sector. Installed capacity needs to increase by the factorof 60 for solar thermal and even by the factor of 3,000 forgeothermal and heat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies,which are already rather wide spread still need to remain a mainpillar of heat supply, however current combustion systems mostlyneed to be replaced by new efficient technologies.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar themaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 27,000 billion to be invested in renewableheating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 670 billion per year.table 5.4: global: renewable heat generation capacitiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolutionscenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200911,75311,75311175175595911,98811,988202012,11512,09234483432,0278753812,54815,105203012,24211,394121,0865335,1481161,39212,90219,019204012,54810,387392,1527669,0891682,37213,52124,000205013,0978,639523,09996511,2662073,39914,32126,402figure 5.11: global: investments for renewable heat generation technologies underthe reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 20503% GEOTHERMAL16% SOLAR25% GEOTHERMAL10% HEAT PUMPS38% SOLARTotal $ 4,417 billionTotal $ 26,856 billion7% BIOMASS71% BIOMASS31% HEAT PUMPS82

image SOLNOVA 1, 3, AND 4, COMPLETED IN 2010 IN SANLÚCAR LA MAYOR, SPAIN.THE SOLNOVA PARABOLIC TROUGH POWER PLANT STATIONS, OWNED BY ABENGOASOLAR CAN GENERATE 50 MWS OF POWER EACH.image WORKERS AT GANSU JINFENG WIND POWER EQUIPMENT CO. LTD. INJIUQUAN, GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA.© GP/MARKEL REDONDO© GP/MARKEL REDONDOglobal: future employment in the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sector jobsglobally at every stage of the projection.• There are 23.3 million energy sector jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario in 2015, and 18.7 millionin the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 22.6 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 17.7 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 18.2 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 15.6 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.12a shows the change in job numbers under allscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030.Jobs in the coal sector decline steeply in both the Referencescenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario, as a result ofproductivity improvements in the industy, coupled with a moveaway from coal in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.The reduction in coal jobs leads to a signficant decline in overallenergy jobs in the Reference scenario, with jobs falling by 21%by 2015. Jobs continue to fall in this scenario between 2020 and2030, mainly driven by losses in the coal sector. At 2030, jobsare 30% (3.1 million) below 2010 levels.In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, strong growth in therenewable sector leads to an increase of 4% in total energysector jobs by 2015. Job numbers fall after 2020 because asrenewable technologies mature costs fall and they become lesslabour intensive. Jobs in the Energy [R]evolution are 19% below2010 levels at 2030. However, this is 2.5 million more jobs thanin the Reference scenario.5key results | GLOBAL - EMPLOYEMENTfigure 5.12a: global: employment in the energy scenariounder the reference and energy [r]evolution scenarios25Direct jobs - millions201510502010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030GEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWERPVWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALREFERENCEENERGY[R]EVOLUTION83

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKglobalGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAtable 5.5: global: total employment in the energy sector MILLION JOBS520102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030key results | GLOBAL - EMPLOYEMENTCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal JobsConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs9.15.10.547.822.53.31.71.714.71.122.56.75.20.506.418.71.90.91.812.71.318.75.85.30.416.217.71.70.82.011.91.517.74.65.40.295.315.61.20.61.910.71.215.65.55.40.2612.223.34.52.71.912.91.323.34.15.30.2713.022.64.72.72.311.71.222.62.13.90.2711.918.24.02.22.68.80.618.2CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal Jobs9.15.10.55.21.00.70.40.020.010.0010.380.0322.56.75.20.54.70.90.40.20.020.020.0010.120.0118.75.85.30.44.60.90.40.20.010.030.0020.090.0117.74.65.40.34.00.90.20.10.010.030.010.080.0115.65.55.40.35.10.91.82.00.120.50.111.40.2923.34.15.30.35.00.71.91.60.170.850.122.00.5622.62.13.90.34.50.71.71.50.160.830.101.70.6218.2figure 5.12b: global: proportion of fossil fuel and renewable employment at 2010 and 20302010 - BOTH SCENARIOS2030 - REFERENCE SCENARIO2030 - ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2% NUCLEAR2% NUCLEAR1% NUCLEAR23% GAS35% GAS21% GAS22.5 million jobs15.6 million jobs18.2 million jobs35% RENEWABLE34% RENEWABLE12% COAL40% COAL29% COAL65% RENEWABLE84

image TRAFFIC JAM IN BANGKOK, THAILAND.image 100 KW PV GENERATING PLANT NEAR BELLINZONA-LOCARNO RAILWAY LINE.GORDOLA, SWITZERLAND.© GP/A. SRISOMWONGWATHANA© GP/MARTIN BONDglobal: transportIn the transport sector it is assumed that, due to fast growingdemand for services, energy consumption will continue to increaseunder the Energy [R]evolution scenario up to 2020. After that itwill decrease, falling below the level of the current demand by2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, transport energydemand is reduced overall by 60% or about 90,000 PJ/a by2050. Energy demand for transport under the Energy[R]evolution scenario will therefore increase between 2009 and2050 by 26% to about 60,000 PJ/a.Significant savings are made by shifting the transport of goodsfrom road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviourpatterns. Implementing a mix of increased public transport asattractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock is growingslower and annual person kilometres are lower than in theReference scenario. A shift towards smaller cars triggered byeconomic incentives together with a significant shift in propulsiontechnology towards electrified power trains and a reduction ofvehicle kilometres travelled per year lead to significant energysavings. In 2030, electricity will provide 12% of the transportsector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in2050 the share will be 44%.table 5.6: global: transport energy demand by mode underthe reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20092,4832,48371,22971,2293,9943,9941,6851,68579,39179,39120203,1993,43586,99574,4915,1954,7752,0892,01697,47984,71820303,6413,987101,38065,2226,1425,1592,4542,200113,61776,56820404,1814,438115,16351,3487,7155,9412,8532,337129,91264,06320504,6714,849129,09645,58610,2897,1153,3942,364147,45059,9145key results | GLOBAL - TRANSPORTfigure 5.13: global: final energy consumption for transport under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205085

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKglobalGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | GLOBAL - PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION5global: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resultingprimary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario isshown in Figure 5.14. Compared to the Reference scenario, overallprimary energy demand will be reduced by 40% in 2050.figure 5.14: global: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000PJ/a 0The Energy [R]evolution scenario would even achieve a renewableenergy share of 41% by 2030 and 82% by 2050. In this projectionalmost the entire global electricity supply, including the majority ofthe energy used in buildings and industry, would come fromrenewable energy sources. The transport sector, in particular aviationand shipping, would be the last sector to become fossil fuel free.REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205086

image COWS FROM A FARM WITH A BIOGAS PLANT IN ITTIGEN BERN,SWITZERLAND. THE FARMER PETER WYSS PRODUCES ON HIS FARM WITH A BIOGASPLANT, GREEN ELECTRICITY WITH DUNG FROM COWS, LIQUID MANURE AND WASTEFROM FOOD PRODUCTION.image SMOKE BILLOWING FROM THE CHIMNEY AT THE MARSHALL STEAM STATIONIN CATAWBA COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COAL-FIRED POWER STATION HAS A2,090-MEGAWATT GENERATING CAPACITY AND EMITS 14.5 MILLION TONS OFCARBON DIOXIDE ANNUALLY.© GP/EX-PRESS/M. FORTE© LES STONE/GPglobal: development of CO2 emissionsWhilst worldwide CO2 emissions will increase by 62% in theReference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario theywill decrease from 27,925 million tonnes in 2009 to3,076 million tonnes in 2050 (excluding international bunkers).Annual per capita emissions will drop from 4.1 tonnes to 2.4tonnes in 2030 and 0.3 tonne in 2050. In spite of the phasingout of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions willdecrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gainsand the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles willeven reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of23% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop belowtransport as the largest source of emissions. By 2050, global CO2emissions are 15% of 1990 levels.global: energy related CO2 emissions frombio energyThe Energy [R]evolution scenario is an energy scenario, thereforeonly direct energy related CO2 emissions of combustion processesare calculated and presented. Greenpeace estimates that alsosustainable bio energy may result in indirect CO2 emissions in therange of 10% to 40% of the replaced fossil fuels, leading toadditional CO2 emissions between 358 and 1,432 million tonnesby 2050 (see also Bio Energy disclaimer in Chapter 8).figure 5.16: global: development of CO2 emissionsby sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/a50,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00005key results | GLOBAL - CO2 EMISSIONSfigure 5.15: global: regional breakdown of CO2 emissions figure 5.17: global: CO2 emissions by sector12% AFRICA12%5% INTERNATIONAL BUNKERSOECD ASIA OCEANIA7% 21% OECD NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRYin the energy [r]evolution in 2050in the energy [r]evolution in 20506% OECD EUROPE7% OTHER CONVERSION5% LATIN AMERICA14% INDIA8% EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA10% OTHER SECTORS9% NON OECD ASIA6% MIDDLE EAST21% POWER GENERATION29% TRANSPORT28% CHINA87

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd north americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - DEMAND5oecd north america: electricity generationenergy demand by sectorThe future development pathways for OECD North America’senergy demand are shown in Figure 5.18 for the Reference andthe Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario,total primary energy demand in OECD North America increasesby 16% from the current 108,501 PJ/a to 108,501 PJ/a in2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energydemand decreases by 33% compared to current consumption andit is expected by 2050 to reach 73,000 PJ/a.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in theindustrial, residential, and service sectors is expected to fallslightly below the current level (see Figure 5.19). In the transportsector - for both freight and persons - a shift towards electrictrains and public transport as well as efficient electric vehicle isexpected. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation arealso phased out more quickly and replaced by electric heatpumps, solar energy, electric direct heating and hydrogen. Thismeans that electricity demand (final energy) in the Energy[R]evolution scenario increases in the industry, residential,service, and transport sectors and reaches 4,082 TWh/a in 2050,still 36% below the Reference case.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector allow a significantreduction of the heat demand relative to the reference case.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, heat demand can evenbe reduced significantly (see Figure 5.21) compared to theReference scenario: Heat production equivalent to 2,283 PJ/a isavoided through efficiency measures by 2050.figure 5.18: oecd north america: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)80,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205088

image CONTROL ROOM OF LUZ SOLAR POWER PLANT, CALIFORNIA, USA.image LUZ INTERNATIONAL SOLAR POWER PLANT, CALIFORNIA, USA.© JAMES PEREZ/GP© JAMES PEREZ/GPfigure 5.19: oecd north america: developmentof electricity demand by sector in theenergy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050figure 5.21: oecd north america: development of heatdemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20505key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - DEMAND‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.20: oecd north america: developmentof the transport demand by sector in the energy[r]evolution scenario35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy[R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease by 67%to 9,554 PJ/a by 2050, saving 69% compared to the Referencescenario. The Energy [R]evolution scenario factors in a fasterdecrease of the final energy demand for transport. This can beachieved through a mix of increased public transport, reducedannual person kilometres and wider use of more efficient enginesand electric drives. Consequently, electricity demand in thetransport sector increases, the final energy use of fossil fuels fallsto 1,451 PJ/a, compared to 27,203 PJ/a in the Reference case.PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONRAILDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROAD89

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd north americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5oecd north america: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market is charaterisedby a dynamically growing renewable energy market and anincreasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate forthe phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossilfuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050,97% of the electricity produced in OECD North America willcome from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainlywind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 84% ofelectricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projectsan immediate market development with higher annual growthrates achieving a renewable electricity share of 42% by 2020and 75% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables willreach 1,721 GW in 2030 and 2,780 GW by 2050.Table 5.7 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in OECD North America over time. Up to2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of thegrowing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of windwill be complemented by elelctricty mainly from photovoltaics,solar thermal (CSP), and geothermal energy. The Energy[R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuatingpower generation source (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 43%by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand sidemanagement (DSM) and storage capacity from the increasedshare of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integrationand power generation management.table 5.7: oecd north america: renewable electricitygeneration capacity under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200918718715153939442200002472472020197217232010938662322132346020361843203020422436261507599593938472181514451,72120402082244934192961109351552124671895232,420205021422459402411,01112107556392265121086062,780figure 5.22: oecd north america: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205090

image CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER (CSP) AT A SOLAR FARM IN DAGGETT,CALIFORNIA, USA.image AN OFFSHORE DRILLING RIG DAMAGED BY HURRICANE KATRINA,GULF OF MEXICO.© VISSER/GP© LPM/DREAMSTIMEoecd north america: future costsof electricity generationFigure 5.23 shows that the introduction of renewabletechnologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightlyincreases the costs of electricity generation in OECD NorthAmerica compared to the Reference scenario. This difference willbe less than $ 1 cent/kWh up to 2030, however. Because of thelower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generationcosts will become economically favourable under the Energy[R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 6.5 cents/kWhbelow those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, anincrease in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result intotal electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 565 billion peryear to about $ 1,290 billion in 2050. Figure 5.23 shows that theEnergy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with OECD NorthAmerica’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energycosts. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply torenewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that aremore than one third than in the Reference scenario.figure 5.23: oecd north america: total electricity supplycosts and specific electricity generation costs undertwo scenariosmore than in the Reference scenario ($ 3,928 billion). Under theReference version, the levels of investment in conventional powerplants adds up to almost 55% while approximately 45% wouldbe invested in renewable energy and cogeneration until 2050.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, North Americawould shift almost 95% of the entire investment towardsrenewables and cogeneration. Until 2030 the fossil fuel share ofpower sector investment would be focused mainly on combinedheat and power plants. The average annual investment in thepower sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario betweentoday and 2050 would be approximately $ 245 billion.Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuelcost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of$ 5,775 billion, or $ 144.4 billion per year. The total fuel costsavings therefore would cover 98% of the total additionalinvestments compared to the reference scenario. These renewableenergy sources would then go on to produce electricity withoutany further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal andgas will continue to be a burden on national economies.figure 5.24: oecd north america: investment shares -reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario5key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONBn$/a1,4001,2001,0008006004002000ct/kWh181614121086420REF 2011 - 2050Total $ 3,928 billion6% CHP39% RENEWABLES20% NUCLEAR35% FOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])oecd north america: future investmentsin the power sectorIt would require $ 9,800 billion in investment for the Energy[R]evolution scenario to become reality (through 2050, includinginvestments for replacement after the economic lifetime of theplants) - approximately $ 5,872 billion or $ 147 billion per yearE[R] 2011 - 2050Total $ 9,800 billion5% FOSSIL4% CHP91% RENEWABLES91

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd north americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - HEATINGoecd north america: heating supplyRenewables currently provide 11% of North America’s energy heatdemand, the main contribution coming from biomass. Dedicatedsupport instruments are required to ensure a dynamic futuredevelopment. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewablesprovide 88% of North America’s total heat demand in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures can decrease the heat demand by9% in 2050 compared to the Reference scenario, in spite ofimproving living standards.• For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well asgeothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossil fuelfiredsystems.• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventionalapplications will lead to a further reduction of CO2 emissions.The Energy [R]evolution case introduces renewable heating systemsaround 5 years ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Solarcollectors and geothermal heating systems achieve economies ofscale via ambitious support programmes 5 to 10 years earlier andreach a share of 52% by 2030 and 96% by 2050.Table 5.8 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heating in North America over time. Up to 2020biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing marketshare. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors anda growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce thedependence on fossil fuels.table 5.8: oecd north america: renewable heatingcapacities under the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20092,0522,05264641414002,1302,13020202,7882,7051541,272311,22702712,9735,47520303,0932,8373304,303603,74208733,48311,75520403,3312,7646206,7511436,52701,6054,09417,64720503,5112,2887967,8741939,00701,9764,50021,146figure 5.25: oecd north america: heat supply structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205092

image AN OPEN-PIT MINE IN FRONT OF SYNCRUDES MILDRED LAKE FACILITY ATTHE ALBERTA TAR SANDS. CANADA’S TAR SANDS ARE AN OIL RESERVE THE SIZE OFENGLAND. EXTRACTING THE CRUDE OIL CALLED BITUMEN FROM UNDERNEATHUNSPOILED WILDERNESS REQUIRES A MASSIVE INDUSTRIALIZED EFFORT WITHFAR-REACHING IMPACTS ON THE LAND, AIR, WATER, AND CLIMATE.image CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER (CSP) AT A SOLAR FARM IN DAGGETT,CALIFORNIA, USA.© GP/EM© VISSER/GPoecd north america: future investmentsin the heat sectorAlso in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire a major revision of current investment strategies inheating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar andgeothermal and heat pump technologies need enourmous increasein installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heatsector. Installed capacity needs to increase from today 19 GW tomore than 2000 GW for solar thermal and from 2 GW to morethan 1400 GW for geothermal and heat pumps. Capacity ofbiomass technologies, which are already rather wide spread willdecrease by more than 50% due to the limited availability ofsustainable biomass.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage. Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 6,300 billion to be invested in renewableheating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 160 billion per year.”table 5.9: oecd north america: renewable heat generationcapacities under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200931031000191922331331202037433718545329314042489120304222979271971,08844075332,0632040465250364481821,70976666893,0732050496149495052322,01699167863,5865key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - INVESTMENTfigure 5.26: oecd north america: investments for renewable heat generation technologiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 205014% GEOTHERMAL18% GEOTHERMAL33% SOLAR2% BIOMASSTotal $ 866 billionTotal $ 6,300 billion43% SOLAR2% HEAT PUMPS51% BIOMASS37% HEAT PUMPS93

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd north americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - EMPLOYMENT5oecd north america: future employmentin the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in the OECD Americas at every stage of the projection.• There are 2 million energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario in 2015, and 1.4 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 2.1 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 1.4 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 1.8 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 1.4 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.27 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe coal sector decline in both scenarios, leading to a smalldecline in overall energy jobs in the Reference scenario.Strong growth in the renewable sector leads to an increase of 44%in total energy sector jobs in the [R]evolution scenario by 2015.At 2030, jobs are 29% above 2010 levels. Renewable energyaccounts for 67% of energy jobs by 2030, with the majorityspread evenly over wind, solar PV, solar heating, and biomass.figure 5.27: oecd north america: employmentin the energy scenario under the referenceand energy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions2.52.01.51.00.502010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.11: oecd north america: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs181761603751,377228755563861,425193736544241,408171733534261,383131740541,0621,987102665741,2552,09534477791,1931,782Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs1306422695341,3771246524398671,42510160259978101,4087340277982101,383464332254933.641,98754540729285112,095503299355626-1,78294

image GAS PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IN THE BRADFORD COUNTY COUNTRYSIDE. INDECEMBER 2011, THE PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW REPORTED THAT THE 8,500 MILES(29,773 KMS) OF GAS PIPELINE IN PENNSYLVANIA COULD QUADRUPLE OVER THE NEXT20 YEARS. THE ARTICLE POINTS OUT THAT COMPANIES HAVE ALREADY DOUBLEDANNUAL SPENDING ON PIPELINE PROJECTS IN PENNSYLVANIA TO $800 MILLION.image WIND TURBINES ON THE STORY COUNTY 1 ENERGY CENTER, JUST NORTH OFCOLO. EACH TURBINE HAS A 1.5-MEGAWATT CAPACITY AND CONTRIBUTES TOGENERATING ELECTRICITY FOR UP TO 75,000 HOMES. THE NEXTERA ENERGY-OWNEDWIND FARM HAS BEEN IN OPERATION SINCE 2008.© LES STONE/GP© KARUNA ANG/GPoecd north america: transportIn the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy[R]evolution scenario that an energy demand reduction of21,207 PJ/a can be achieved by 2050 compared to theReference scenario, saving 69%. This reduction can be achievedby the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting thetransport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobilityrelatedbehaviour patterns. Implementing attractive alternativesto individual cars, the car stock is growing slower than in theReference scenario.A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentivestogether with a significant shift in propulsion technology towardselectrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometrestravelled by 0.25% per year leads to significant final energy savings.In 2030, electricity will provide 5% of the transport sector’s totalenergy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, 33% by 2050.table 5.10: oecd north america: transport energy demandby mode under the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200952252224,97524,9752,1862,18623723727,92027,920202069983225,90222,3192,3212,15128629429,20825,596203069283925,37814,8102,2721,90628628528,62817,839204071982625,9178,1202,4461,82729927129,38211,044205074676426,2246,3822,7531,94731226330,0369,3565key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - TRANSPORTfigure 5.28: oecd north america: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205095

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd north americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5oecd north america: development of CO2emissionsWhilst the OECD North America’s emissions of CO2 will decreaseby 2% under the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario they will decrease from 6,119 million tonnes in 2009 to204 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will fallfrom 13.4 tonne (2009) to 0.3 tonne (2050). In the long runefficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity invehicles will even reduce emissions in the transport sector. With ashare of 42% of total CO2 in 2050, the transport sector will remainthe largest sources of emissions. By 2050, OECD North America’sCO2 emissions are 4% of 1990 levels.oecd north america: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primaryenergy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shownin Figure 5.30. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall energydemand will be reduced by 42% in 2050. Around 87% of theremaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 10 to15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenariopublished in 2010. This is made possible mainly by replacement of coalpower plants with renewables after 20 rather than 40 years lifetimeand a faster introduction of electric vehicles in the transport sector toreplace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewableprimary energy share of 45% in 2030 and 87% in 2050. Nuclearenergy is phased out in just after 2035.figure 5.29: oecd north america: development of CO2emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolutionscenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/a7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople6005004003002001000figure 5.30: oecd north america: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 096REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image THE ALLEN STEAM STATION, A FIVE-UNIT COAL-FIRED GENERATING STATIONIN GASTON COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA. IT HAS BEEN OPERATING SINCE 1957 ANDHAS A 1,140-MEGAWATT CAPACITY AND EMITS 6.9 MILLION TONS OF CARBONDIOXIDE EACH YEAR.image AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH OF THE MARSHALL STEAM STATION, A COAL-FIREDPOWER STATION SITUATED ON LAKE NORMAN. OPERATING SINCE 1965, THIS COAL-FIRED POWER STATION HAS A 2,090-MEGAWATT GENERATING CAPACITY ANDEMITTED 11.5 MILLION TONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE IN 2011.© LES STONE/GP© LES STONE/GPtable 5.12: oecd north america: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-416.91,125.0708.1-12.677.482.49.0156.22021 - 2030-496.71,853.21,356.522.9422.3474.675.4995.12031 - 2040-380.72,353.21,972.536.11,329.8987.288.52,441.52041 - 2050-352.52,187.51,835.024.92,711.71,256.161.44,054.02011 - 2050-1,646.97,518.95,872.071.34,541.12,800.2234.17,646.82011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-41.2188.0146.81.8113.570.05.9191.25key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS97

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKlatin americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | LATIN AMERICA - DEMAND5latin america: energy demand by sectorCombining the projections on population development, GDPgrowth and energy intensity results in future developmentpathways for Latin America’s energy demand. These are shown inFigure 5.31 for both the Reference and the Energy [R]evolutionscenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energydemand almost doubles from the current 22,050 PJ/a to 40,740PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario a smallerincrease of 34% compared to current consumption is expected,reaching 29,500 PJ/a by 2050.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand isexpected to increase disproportionately, with households andservices the main sources for growing consumption. This is due towider access to energy services especially in the developingregions within Latin America (see Figure 5.32). With theexploitation of efficiency measures, however an even higherincrease can be avoided, leading to an electricity demand ofaround 2030 TWh/a in 2050.Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in theindustry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation ofabout 605 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular byintroducing highly efficient electronic devices. Employment ofsolar architecture in both residential and commercial buildingswill help to curb the growing demand for air-conditioning.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Underthe Energy [R]evolution scenario, final energy demand for heatsupply eventually even stagnates (see Figure 5.34). Compared tothe Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 2,370 PJ/a isavoided through efficiency gains by 2050. In the transport sector,it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energydemand will peak around 2020 and will drop back to 5,400 PJ/aby 2050, saving 51% compared to the Reference scenario.figure 5.31: latin america: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)32,00028,00024,00020,00016,00012,0008,0004,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205098

image VOLUNTEERS CHECK THE SOLAR PANELS ON TOP OF GREENPEACE POSITIVEENERGY TRUCK, BRAZIL.image WIND TURBINES IN FORTALEZ, CEARÀ, BRAZIL.© GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA© GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGAfigure 5.32: latin america: development of electricitydemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050figure 5.34: latin america: development of heat demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)10,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20505key results | LATIN AMERICA - DEMAND‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.33: latin america: development of the transportdemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROADRAIL99

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKlatin americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | LATIN AMERICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5latin america: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market in the Energy[R]evolution scenario is charaterised by an increasing share ofrenewable energy sources. By 2050, 95% of the electricityproduced in Latin America will come from renewable energysources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PV and biomass – willcontribute 54% of electricity generation. The installed capacityof renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 148GW to 436 GW in 2030 and 863 GW in 2050, increasingrenewable capacity by a factor of six within the next 40 years.Table 5.13 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in Latin America over time. Up to 2030hydro will remain the main contributor, while wind andphotovoltaics (PV) gain a growing market share. After 2020, thecontinuing growth of wind and PV will be complemented byelectricity from biomass and solar thermal (CSP) energy. TheEnergy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share ofrenewables achieving an electricity share of 80% already by2020 and 86% by 2030.table 5.13: latin america: renewable electricity generationcapacity under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]2009142142551111000000148148202017015971564912433080118826620301981679331113024117412107231436204021816910501720221217152244025266654205022817012662725831925243369037298863figure 5.35: latin america: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)3,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050100

image GROUP OF YOUNG PEOPLE FEEL THE HEAT GENERATED BY A SOLAR COOKINGSTOVE IN BRAZIL.image IN 2005 THE WORST DROUGHT IN MORE THAN 40 YEARS DAMAGED THE WORLD’SLARGEST RAIN FOREST IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON, WITH WILDFIRES BREAKING OUT,POLLUTED DRINKING WATER AND THE DEATH OF MILLIONS FISH AS STREAMS DRY UP.© GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA© GP/ANA CLAUDIA JATAHYlatin america: future costs of electricity generationFigure 5.36 shows that the introduction of renewabletechnologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightlyincreases the costs of electricity generation in Latin Americacompared to the Reference scenario. This difference will be lessthan $ 0.3 cent/kWh up to 2030, however. Because of the lowerCO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costswill become economically favourable under the Energy[R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 7.2 cents/kWhbelow those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand,an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissionsresult in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 81billion per year to more than $ 382 billion in 2050. Figure 5.36shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario complies with LatinAmerica’s CO2 reduction targets without increasing energy costs.Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply torenewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that arein the same range as in the Reference scenario in 2050.more than in the Reference scenario ($ 1,107 billion). Under theReference version, the levels of investment in conventional powerplants add up to almost 24% while approximately 76% would beinvested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, Latin Americawould shift almost 98% of the entire investment towardsrenewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share ofpower sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants.The average annual investment in the power sector under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would beapproximately $ 67 billion.Because renewable energy except biomasss has no fuel costs,however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenarioreach a total of $ 1,400 billion up to 2050, or $ 35 billion per year.The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover 90% of the totaladditional investments compared to the Reference scenario. Theserenewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricitywithout any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coaland gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.5key results | LATIN AMERICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONfigure 5.36: latin america: total electricity supply costsand specific electricity generation costs undertwo scenariosfigure 5.37: latin america: investment shares - referencescenario versus energy [r]evolution scenarioBn$/a400350300250200150100ct/kWh16141210864REF 2011 - 2050Total $ 1,107 billion3% CHP5% NUCLEAR19% FOSSIL5020073% RENEWABLES2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])latin america: future investmentsin the power sectorIt would require $ 2,660 billion in investment in the power sectorfor the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (includinginvestments for replacement after the economic lifetime of theplants) - approximately $ 1,553 billion or $ 39 billion annuallyE[R] 2011 - 2050Total $ 2,660 billion2% FOSSIL13% CHP85% RENEWABLES101

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKlatin americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | LATIN AMERICA - HEATINGlatin america: heating supplyRenewables currently provide 38% of Latin America’s energydemand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from theuse of biomass. The lack of district heating networks is a severestructural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal andsolar thermal energy. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario,renewables provide 67% of Latin America’s total heat demand in2030 and 97% in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures can restrict the future primaryenergy demand for heat supply to a 29% increase, in spite ofimproving living standards.• In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas as wellas geothermal energy are increasingly replacing conventionalfossil fuelled heating systems.• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remainingconventional applications leads to a further reductionof CO2 emissions.In the Energy [R]evolution scenario about 2,370 PJ/a are savedby 2050, or 25% compared to the Reference scenario.Table 5.14 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heating in Latin America over time. Biomass willremain the main contributor for renewable heat. After 2020, thecontinuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share ofgeothermal heat (including heat pumps) will reduce thedependence on fossil fuels.table 5.14: latin america: renewable heating capacitiesunder the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20092,0892,089171700002,1062,10620202,4522,6794246132570712,4973,46720302,6263,11772840756302612,7054,78120402,8013,5291261,262151,21303222,9416,32720502,9023,4512091,465251,75703033,1366,976figure 5.38: latin america: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)10,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050102

image CHILDREN IN THE FLOODED CACAO PEREIRA VILLAGE IN THE AMAZON,BRAZIL. THE NEGRO RIVER ROSE TO 29.77 METERS, SURPASSING THE MARK OF 29.69METERS REGISTERED IN 1953, THE LAST RECORDED FLOOD.image MAN MADE FIRES NEAR ARAGUAYA RIVER OUTSIDE THE ARAGUAYA NATIONALPARK. FIRES ARE STARTED TO CLEAR THE LAND FOR FUTURE CATTLE USE.© GP/RODRIGO BALÈIA© GP/DANIEL BELTRAlatin america: future investmentsin the heat sectorAlso in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire a major revision of current investment strategies in directheating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar andup to now nonexistent geothermal and heat pump technologiesneed an enormous increase in installations, if these potentials areto be tapped for the heat sector. Installed capacity need toincrease by the factor of 90 for solar thermal. Geothermal heatand heat pumps even first need to be introduced. Capacity oftraditional biomass technologies, which are already rather widespread need to be replaced by modern, efficient technologies inorder to remain a main pillar of direct heat supply.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar themaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 698 billion to be invested in directrenewable heating technologies until 2050 (including investmentsfor replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 17 billion per year.table 5.15: latin america: renewable heat generationcapacities under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20095585580044005625622020607665052101141761883920306256520991820811664497520406446470144313133336781,13520506675910146523635597231,1595key results | LATIN AMERICA - INVESTMENTfigure 5.39: latin america: investments for renewable heat generation technologiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 20504% SOLAR4% HEAT PUMPS39% SOLAR23% GEOTHERMAL92% BIOMASSTotal $ 234 billionTotal $ 698 billion0% GEOTHERMAL20% BIOMASS18% HEAT PUMPS103

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKlatin americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | LATIN AMERICA - EMPLOYMENT5latin america: future employmentin the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in Latin America at every stage of the projection.• There are 1.6 million energy sector jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario in 2015, and 1.2 millionin the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 1.7 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 1.3 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 1.6 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 1.3 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.40 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe Reference scenario increase by 10% by 2030. Gas has thelargest share, followed by biomass.Exceptionally strong growth in renewable energy leads to anincrease of 33% in energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario by 2015, and further growth to 41% above 2010 levelsby 2030. Renewable energy accounts for 78% of energy sectorjobs in 2030, with biomass having the largest share (41%),followed by solar PV, wind, and solar heating.figure 5.40: latin america: employmentin the energy scenario under the referenceand energy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions1.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.202010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.16: latin america: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs69414146681,16586441116701,2089145786971,25210249196771,2794442231,0821,5512439231,2471,6662233641,2841,646Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs11235166767851,1659632178811911,20898371968161061,25287342248301031,279331142198807.0731,551380185247801531,666303175338809211,646104

image THE INTAKE/OUTLET PIPE FROM THE ANGRA NUCLEAR REACTOR FROMWHICH SEAWATER USED TO COOL THE POWER PLANT IS POURED BACK INTO THESEA. A POPULAR SWIMMING SPOT BECAUSE OF THE WARMED WATER, THERE IS NOWARNING SIGN. BRAZIL.image ANGRA 1 AND 2 NUCLEAR POWER STATION. IF BNP PARIBAS FINANCINGGOES AHEAD, A THIRD REACTOR ANGRA 3 WILL BE BUILT USING DANGEROUSLYOBSOLETE TECHNOLOGY BURDENING BRAZIL WITH A REACTOR THAT WOULD NOT BEPERMITTED IN THE COUNTRIES THAT ARE FINANCING IT.© PETER CATON/GP© PETER CATON/GPlatin america: transportDespite a huge growth in transport services, the energyconsumption in the transport sector by 2050 can be limited tothe current level in the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Dependencyon fossil fuels, which now account for 89% of this supply, isgradually transformed by using 15% renewable energy by 2030and 35% by 2030. The electricity share in the transport sectorfurther increases up to 21% by 2050.A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentivestogether with a significant shift in propulsion technology towardselectrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometrestravelled per year leads to significant energy savings. In 2030,electricity will provide 14% of the transport sector’s total energydemand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the sharewill be 43%.table 5.17: latin america: transport energy demandby mode under the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20091061064,9954,9951521521111115,3645,36420201401746,4585,6492382221451326,9826,17720301642407,5265,3193292801701438,1895,98220401863368,4474,7634373281921599,2635,58620502204329,8444,48256130933016610,9555,3895key results | LATIN AMERICA - TRANSPORTfigure 5.41: latin america: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050105

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKlatin americaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | LATIN AMERICA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5latin america: development of CO2 emissionsWhile Latin America’s emissions of CO2 will almost double under theReference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they willdecrease from 972 million tonnes in 2009 to 155 million tonnes in2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 2.1 tonnes to 1.2tonnes in 2030 and 0.3 tonne in 2050. In spite of the phasing out ofnuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease inthe electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increaseduse of renewable electricity in vehicles will even reduce emissions inthe transport sector. With a share of 38% of CO2 emissions in 2050,the transport sector will remain the largest source of emissions. By2050, Latin America’s CO2 emissions are 27% of 1990 levels.latin america: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the assumptions discussed above, theresulting primary energy consumption under the Energy[R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.43. Compared to theReference scenario, overall primary energy demand will bereduced by 28% in 2050. Latin America’s primary energydemand will increase from 22,045 PJ/a to about 29,500 PJ/a.The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 5to 10 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenariopublished in 2010. This is made possible mainly by replacementof fossil-fueled power plants with renewables and a fasterintroduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transportsector to replace conventional combustion engines. This leads toan overall renewable primary energy share of 57% in 2030 and85% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out before 2030.figure 5.42: latin america: development of CO2 emissionsby sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/a2,0001,6001,2008004000REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople6005004003002001000figure 5.43: latin america: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)40,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0106REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image CONSTRUCTION OF THE BELO MONTE DAM PROJECT, NEAR ALTAMIRA. THEBELO MONTE DAM WILL BE THE THIRD LARGEST IN THE WORLD, SUBMERGING400,000 HECTARES AND DISPLACING 20,000 PEOPLE. THE CONTROVERSIALHYDROPOWER PLANT IS BEING BUILT IN THE XINGU RIVER. FOR 20 YEARSINDIGENOUS GROUPS, RURAL COMMUNITIES AND ENVIRONMENTALISTS HAVEFOUGHT AGAINST THE CONSTRUCTION. THE AERIAL IMAGES EXPOSE THE MASSIVECONSTRUCTION AND CONSIDERABLE ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION THAT HAS NOTYET BEEN DOCUMENTED VISUALLY; THIS IS ONE OF THE FIRST COMPELLINGIMAGES TO BE CIRCULATED OF THE IMPACTS OF THE CONSTRUCTION.© GP/DANIEL BELTRA© GP/STEVE MORGANimage A 5-YEAR-OLD BOY IN TAMAQUITO, NEAR THE OPEN CAST CERREJON ZONANORTE COAL MINE, ONE OF THE LARGEST IN THE WORLD. LIKE MANY HE SUFFERSSKIN RASHES FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE MINE DUST.table 5.18a: latin america: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-47.4197.2149.823.730.66.70.246.22021 - 2030-28.7318.2289.587.0105.621.40.7162.12031 - 2040-45.2560.5515.280.3340.231.60.8342.02041 - 2050-45.2560.5515.285.2983.253.90.9848.22011 - 2050-207.51,760.71,553.2276.11,459.6113.52.71,398.62011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-5.244.038.86.936.52.80.135.05key results | LATIN AMERICA - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS107

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd europeGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD EUROPE - DEMAND5oecd europe: energy demand by sectorThe future development pathways for Europe’s energy demandare shown in Figure 5.44 for the Reference and the Energy[R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, totalprimary energy demand in OECD Europe increases by 9% fromthe current 75,200 PJ/a to 82,080 PJ/a in 2050. The energydemand in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario decreasesby 36% compared to current consumption and it is expected by2050 to reach 47,800 PJ/a.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in theindustry as well as in the residential and service sectors isexpected to decrease after 2015 (see Figure 5.45). Because ofthe growing shares of electric vehicles, heat pumps and hydrogengeneration however, electricity demand increases to 3,470 TWh/ain 2050, still 21% below the Reference case.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in theelectricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, finaldemand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (seeFigure 5.47). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumptionequivalent to 8,921 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measuresby 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existingstock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of lowenergy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings,enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will beaccompanied by a much lower future energy demand.figure 5.44: oecd europe: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT200920152020203020402050108

image PLANT NEAR REYKJAVIK WHERE ENERGY IS PRODUCED FROM THEGEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY.image WORKERS EXAMINE PARABOLIC TROUGH COLLECTORS IN THE PS10 SOLARTOWER PLANT AT SAN LUCAR LA MAYOR OUTSIDE SEVILLE, SPAIN, 2008.© GP/COBBING© REDONDO/GPfigure 5.45: oecd europe: development of electricitydemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050figure 5.47: oecd europe: development of heat demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20505key results | OECD EUROPE - DEMAND‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.46: oecd europe: development of the transportdemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROADRAIL109

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd europeGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD EUROPE - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5oecd europe: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market is charaterised bya dynamically growing renewable energy market. This willcompensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce thenumber of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for gridstabilisation. By 2050, 96% of the electricity produced in OECDEurope will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables– mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 71%of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projectsan immediate market development with high annual growth ratesachieving a renewable electricity share of 49% already by 2020and 71% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach1038 GW in 2030 and 1,498 GW by 2050.Table 5.19 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in OECD Europe over time. Up to 2020hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growingmarket share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will becomplemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics andsolar thermal (CSP) energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenariowill lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources(photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 37% by 2030, therefore theexpansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM)and storage capacity e.g. from the increased share of electricvehicles will be used for a better grid integration and powergeneration management.table 5.19: oecd europe: renewable electricity generationcapacity under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20091931932121767622141400003063062020210207304819527638451972120348675020302202153760256414330792704322186021,038204022721843722954964451154895559316991,4072050234219497031351655315251868211407701,498figure 5.48: oecd europe: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500TWh/a 0110REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL

image OFFSHORE WINDFARM, MIDDELGRUNDEN, COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.image MAN USING METAL GRINDER ON PART OF A WIND TURBINE MAST IN THEVESTAS FACTORY, CAMBELTOWN, SCOTLAND, GREAT BRITAIN.© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP© GP/DAVISONoecd europe: future costs of electricity generationFigure 5.49 shows that the introduction of renewable technologiesunder the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costs ofelectricity generation in OECD Europe compared to the Referencescenario. This difference will be less than $ 1.3 cent/kWh up to 2020,however. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation,electricity generation costs will become economically favourable underthe Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 6.2cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, anincrease in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result intotal electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 426 billion per yearto more than $ 832 billion in 2050. Figure 5.49 shows that theEnergy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with OECD Europe’sCO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs.Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewableslead to long term costs for electricity supply that are 18% lower thanin the Reference scenario, although costs for efficiency measures of upto $ 4 cents/kWh are taken into account.Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional powerplants add up to almost 35% while approximately 65% would beinvested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, OECD Europewould shift almost 96% of the entire investment towardsrenewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share ofpower sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants.The average annual investment in the power sector under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would beapproximately $ 135 billion.Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuelcost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of$ 4,760 billion up to 2050, or $ 119 billion per year. The totalfuel cost savings based on the assumed energy price paththerefore would cover 230% of the total additional investmentscompared to the Reference scenario. These renewable energysources would then go on to produce electricity without anyfurther fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gaswill continue to be a burden on national economies.5key results | OECD EUROPE - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONfigure 5.49: oecd europe: total electricity supplycosts and specific electricity generation costs undertwo scenariosfigure 5.50: oecd europe: investment shares - referencescenario versus energy [r]evolution scenarioBn$/a1,000800ct/kWh161412REF 2011 - 205010% CHP55% RENEWABLES6004001086Total $ 3,335 billion21% NUCLEAR200420014% FOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])oecd europe: future investments in the power sectorIt would require about $ 5,400 billion in investment for theEnergy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (includinginvestments for replacement after the economic lifetime of theplants) - approximately $ 2,065 billion or $ 52 billion annuallymore than in the Reference scenario ($ 3,335 billion). Under theE[R] 2011 - 2050Total $ 5,400 billion4% FOSSIL + NUCLEAR16% CHP80% RENEWABLES111

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd europeGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | OECD EUROPE - HEATINGoecd europe: heating supplyRenewables currently provide 14% of OECD Europe’s energydemand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from theuse of biomass. The lack of district heating networks is a severestructural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal andsolar thermal energy. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario,renewables provide 48% of OECD Europe’s total heat demand in2030 and 92% in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures can decrease the current total demandfor heat supply by at least 10%, in spite of growing populationand economic activities and improving living standards.• For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well asgeothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossilfuel-fired systems.• The introduction of strict efficiency measures e.g. via strictbuilding standards and ambitious support programs forrenewable heating systems are needed to achieve economies ofscale within the next 5 to 10 years.Table 5.20 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heating in OECD Europe over time. Up to 2020biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing marketshare. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors anda growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce thedependence on fossil fuels.table 5.20: oecd europe: renewable heating capacitiesunder the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20092,4132,4136464186186002,6622,66220203,2914,1702049542611,345003,7566,46920303,8654,2653322,6973362,781014,5339,74420404,4564,0614594,4414755,0120375,39013,55120504,9073,5805865,6755686,74102046,06116,199figure 5.51: oecd europe: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL200920152020203020402050112

image INSTALLATION AND TESTING OF A WINDPOWER STATION IN RYSUMERNACKEN NEAR EMDEN WHICH IS MADE FOR OFFSHORE USAGE ONSHORE. A WORKERCONTROLS THE SECURITY LIGHTS AT DARK.image THE MARANCHON WIND FARM IS THE LARGEST IN EUROPE WITH 104GENERATORS, AND IS OPERATED BY IBERDROLA, THE LARGEST WIND ENERGYCOMPANY IN THE WORLD.© PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP© GP/DANIEL BELTRAoecd europe: future investmentsin the heat sectorAlso in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire a major revision of current investment strategies in heatingtechnologies. Especially the not yet so common solar, geothermaland heat pump technologies need enormous increase ininstallations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heatsector. Installed capacity needs to be increased by a factor of 70for solar thermal and even by the factor of 510 for geothermal andheat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies, which are alreadyrather wide spread still need to remain a pillar of heat supply.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 3,896 billion to be invested in renewableheating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 97 billion per year. Due to a lack of (regional)information on costs for conventional heating systems and fuelprices, total investments and fuel cost savings for the heat supplyin the scenarios have not been estimated.table 5.21: oecd europe: renewable heat generationcapacities under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20093903901121213232443443202048152319367279451145931,00920305695061214108781582047371,705204065343513961501,209842968882,336205070935414951911,5131014201,0022,7825key results | OECD EUROPE - INVESTMENTfigure 5.52: oecd europe: investments for renewable heat generation technologiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 205050% SOLAR23% SOLAR15% GEOTHERMAL8% BIOMASSTotal $ 1,163 billion19% HEAT PUMPSTotal $ 3,896 billion0% GEOTHERMAL27% HEAT PUMPS58% BIOMASS113

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd europeGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD EUROPE - EMPLOYMENT5oecd europe: future employmentin the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in OECD Europe at every stage of the projection.• There are 1.8 million energy sector jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario in 2015, and 1.2 millionin the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 1.6 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 1.1 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 1.4 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 1 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.53 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe coal sector decline in both scenarios, leading to an overalldecline of 19% in energy sector jobs in the Reference scenario.Exceptionally strong growth in renewable energy leads to anincrease of 43% in total energy sector jobs in the Energy[R]evolution scenario by 2015. Renewable energy accounts for72% of energy jobs by 2030, with biomass having the greatestshare (22%), followed by solar PV, wind and solar heating.figure 5.53: oecd europe: employmentin the energy scenario under the referenceand energy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions2.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.202010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.22: oecd europe: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs387264555521,258326261585191,164269241605161,085211286624631,022278272661,1771,794177265841,0971,62391226911,0341,442Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs161158222717-1,258114103239708-1,1649772254662-1,0858344253642-1,022415421262696-1,794370330293629-1,623391263289498-1,442114

image THE PIONEERING REYKJANES GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT USES STEAMAND BRINE FROM A RESERVOIR AT 290 TO 320ºC, WHICH IS EXTRACTED FROM 12WELLS THAT ARE 2,700 METERS DEEP. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT GEOTHERMALSTEAM OF SUCH HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN USED FOR ELECTRICALGENERATION. THE REYKJANES GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT GENERATES 100 MWEFROM TWO 50 MWE TURBINES, WITH AN EXPANSION PLAN TO INCREASE THIS BY ANADDITIONAL 50 MWE BY THE END OF 2010.image RENEWABLE ENERGY FACILITIES ON A FORMER US-BASE IN MORBACH,GERMANY. MIXTURE OF WIND, BIOMASS AND SOLAR POWER RUN BY THE JUWI GROUP.© STEVE MORGAN/GP© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GPoecd europe: transportIn the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy[R]evolution scenario that an energy demand reduction of about9,500 PJ/a can be achieved by 2050, saving 62% compared tothe Reference scenario. Energy demand will therefore decreasebetween 2009 and 2050 by 59% to 5,800 PJ/a. This reductioncan be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, byshifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changesin mobility related behaviour patterns. Implementing a mix ofincreased public transport as attractive alternatives to individualcars, the car stock is growing slower and annual personkilometres are lower than in the Reference scenario.A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentivestogether with a significant shift in propulsion technology towardselectrified power trains and the reduction of vehicle kilometrestravelled lead to significant energy savings. In 2030, electricitywill provide 13% of the transport sector’s total energy demandin the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 46%.table 5.23: oecd europe: transport energy demandby mode under the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200938938912,98412,98436836831531514,05514,055202043045713,53510,93947544233130314,77112,141203048252013,4608,04049142033126514,7649,244204053756213,6755,54350741033824715,0576,762205058159613,7574,57251839234124015,1985,8005key results | OECD EUROPE - TRANSPORTfigure 5.54: oecd europe: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050115

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd europeGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD EUROPE - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5oecd europe: development of CO2 emissionsWhile CO2 emissions in OECD Europe will decrease by 4% in theReference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario theywill decrease from around 3,800 million tonnes in 2009 to 192million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from6.8 tonnes to 2.9 tonnes in 2030 and 0.3 tonne in 2050. In spiteof the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long runefficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity invehicles will reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a shareof 28% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop belowtransport and other sectors as the largest sources of emissions. By2050, OECD Europe’s CO2 emissions are 5% of 1990 levels.oecd europe: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the assumptions discussed above, theresulting primary energy consumption under the Energy[R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.56. Compared to theReference scenario, overall primary energy demand will bereduced by 43% in 2050. Around 85% of the remaining demandwill be covered by renewable energy sources.The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about10 to 15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolutionscenario published in 2010. This is made possible mainly by thereplacement of coal power plants with renewables and a fasterintroduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transportsector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overallrenewable primary energy share of 46% in 2030 and 85% in2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2030.figure 5.55: oecd europe: development of CO2 emissionsby sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/afigure 5.56: oecd europe: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)4,0003,0002,0001,0000REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople600500400300200100090,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0116REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image TESTING THE SCOTRENEWABLES TIDAL TURBINE OFF KIRWALL IN THEORKNEY ISLANDS.image GEMASOLAR IS A 15 MWE SOLAR-ONLY POWER TOWER PLANT, EMPLOYINGMOLTEN SALT TECHNOLOGIES FOR RECEIVING AND STORING ENERGY. IT’S 16 HOURMOLTEN SALT STORAGE SYSTEM CAN DELIVER POWER AROUND THE CLOCK. IT RUNSAN EQUIVALENT OF 6,570 FULL HOURS OUT OF 8,769 TOTAL. GEMASOLAR IS OWNEDBY TORRESOL ENERGY AND WAS COMPLETED IN MAY 2011. FUENTES DE ANDALUCÍASEVILLE, SPAIN.© STEVE MORGAN/GP© MARKEL REDONDO/GPtable 5.24: oecd europe: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-309.0785.5476.539.9-102.781.211.830.22021 - 2030-269.0677.3408.362.1123.5265.443.1494.02031 - 2040-221.5996.3774.868.3936.6375.450.71,430.92041 - 2050-221.5996.3774.859.32,329.6361.853.92,804.62011 - 2050-1,005.23,071.12,065.9229.53,287.01,083.8159.54,759.82011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-25.176.851.65.782.227.14.0119.05key results | OECD EUROPE - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS117

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKafricaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | AFRICA - DEMAND5africa: energy demand by sectorThe future development pathways for Africa’s energy demand areshown in Figure 5.57 for the Reference and the Energy[R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, totalprimary energy demand in Africa increases by 104% from thecurrent 27,681 PJ/a to 56,500 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy[R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand increases by53% compared to current consumption and it is expected by2050 to reach 42,300 PJ/a.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in theindustrial, residential, and service sectors is expected to increasedisproportionately (see Figure 5.58). With the exploitation ofefficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can beavoided, leading to 2040 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to theReference case, efficiency measures in industry and other sectorsavoid the generation of about 500 TWh/a or 22%. In contrast,electricity consumption in the transport sector will growsignificantly, as the Energy [R]evolution scenario introduceselectric trains and public transport as well as efficient electricvehicles faster than the Reference case. Fossil fuels for industrialprocess heat generation are also phased out more quickly andreplaced by electric heat pumps and hydrogen.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in theelectricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, finaldemand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (seeFigure 5.60). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumptionequivalent to 4,820 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measuresby 2050.In the transport sector it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario that energy demand will increase from 3,301 PJ/a in2009 to 4,440 PJ/a by 2050. However this still saves 37%compared to the Reference scenario. By 2030 electricity willprovide 4% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario increasing to 20% by 2050.figure 5.57: africa: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)40,00035,00030,00035,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050118

image GARIEP DAM, FREE STATE, SOUTH AFRICA.image WOMEN FARMERS FROM LILONGWE, MALAWI STAND IN THEIR DRY, BARRENFIELDS CARRYING ON THEIR HEADS AID ORGANISATION HANDOUTS. THIS AREA,THOUGH EXTREMELY POOR HAS BEEN SELF-SUFFICIENT WITH FOOD. NOW THESEWOMEN’S CHILDREN ARE SUFFERING FROM MALNUTRITION.© P. ALLEN/DREAMSTIME© CLIVE SHIRLEY/GPfigure 5.58: africa: development of electricity demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050figure 5.60: africa: development of heat demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)21,00018,00015,00012,0009,0006,0003,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20505key results | AFRICA - DEMAND‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.59: africa: development of the transportdemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROADRAIL119

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKafricaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | AFRICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5africa: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market is characterisedby a dynamically growing renewable energy market and anincreasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate forthe phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossilfuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050,92% of the electricity produced in Africa will come fromrenewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solarthermal power and PV – will contribute 71% of electricitygeneration. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects animmediate market development with high annual growth ratesachieving a renewable electricity share of 34% already by 2020and 62% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach250 GW in 2030 and 639 GW by 2050, an enormous increase.Table 5.25 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in Africa over time. Up to 2020 hydroand wind will remain the main contributors of the growingmarket share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will becomplemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics andsolar thermal (CSP) energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenariowill lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources(photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 28% by 2030 and 40% by2050, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand sidemanagement (DSM) and increased storage capacity e.g. from theshare of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integrationand power generation management.table 5.25: africa: renewable electricity generationcapacity under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200925250011000000002626202037392452513412113024997203053455898911211494420684250204073491091512532322908101013131410205093501510212004383315514161026179639figure 5.61: africa: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)3,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050120

image FLOWING WATERS OF THE TUGELA RIVER IN NORTHERN DRAKENSBERGIN SOUTH AFRICA.image A SMALL HYDRO ELECTRIC ALTERNATOR MAKES ELECTRICITYFOR A SMALL AFRICAN TOWN.© AUSTIN/DREAMSTIME© PG-IMAGES/DREAMSTIMEafrica: future costs of electricity generationFigure 5.62 shows that the introduction of renewabletechnologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario does notincrease the costs of electricity generation in Africa compared tothe Reference scenario - assuming fossil fuel prices andinvestment costs according to the pathways defined in Chapter 4.Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation,electricity generation costs will become economically favourableunder the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be$ 9.7 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, by contrast, unchecked growth indemand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising fromtoday’s $ 85 billion per year to more than $ 493 billion in 2050.Figure 5.62 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not onlycomplies with Africa’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps tostabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shiftingenergy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricitysupply that are 31% lower than in the Reference scenario,including estimated costs for efficiency measures.figure 5.62: africa: total electricity supply costsand specific electricity generation costs undertwo scenariosUnder the Reference version, the levels of investment inconventional power plants add up to almost 40% whileapproximately 60% would be invested in renewable energy andcogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, however, Africa would shift almost 97% of the entireinvestment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, thefossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focusedmainly on CHP plants. The average annual investment in thepower sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario betweentoday and 2050 would be approximately $ 62 billion.Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuel costsavings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of$ 2,596 billion up to 2050, or $ 65 billion per year. The total fuelcost savings therefore would cover almost 2 times the totaladditional investments compared to the Reference scenario. Theserenewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricitywithout any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs forcoal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.figure 5.63: africa: investment shares - referencescenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario5key results | AFRICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONBn$/a500ct/kWhREF 2011 - 20502% CHP3% NUCLEAR400300200Total $ 998 billion58% RENEWABLES10037% FOSSIL01816141210864202009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])africa: future investments in the power sectorIt would require $ 2,475 billion in investment for the Energy[R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investmentsfor replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 62 billion annually or $ 37 billion more than inthe Reference scenario ($ 998 billion).E[R] 2011 - 2050Total $ 2,475 billion3% FOSSIL & NUCLEAR5% CHP92% RENEWABLES121

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKafricaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | AFRICA - HEATINGafrica: heating supplyToday, renewables provide 79% of Africa’s energy demand forheat supply, the main contribution coming from the traditionaluse of biomass. Dedicated support instruments are required toensure a dynamic future development. In the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, renewables provide 84% of Africa’s total heat demandin 2030 and 93% in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures will restrict the future energydemand for heat supply in 2020 to an increase of 18%compared to 34% in the Reference scenario, in spite ofimproving living standards.• In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas as wellas geothermal energy are increasingly substituted forconventional fossil-fired heating systems.• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remainingconventional applications leads to a further reduction ofCO2 emissions.Table 5.26 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heating in Africa over time. Biomass will remainthe main contributor of the growing market share. After 2020,the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share ofgeothermal energy and heat pumps will reduce the dependence onfossil fuels.table 5.26: africa: renewable heating capacities under thereference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario INGWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20099,1489,1483300009,1509,150202010,1698,99987910370010,1789,827203011,5178,918572,14345170011,57811,577204013,1968,6981113,30691,27401813,31513,296205014,9007,8931665,004121,972020815,07715,077figure 5.64: africa: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ =REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)21,00018,00015,00012,0009,0006,0003,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050122

image MAMA SARA OBAMA, THE US PRESIDENT’S GRANDMOTHER, FLICKS ON THELIGHTS AFTER A GREENPEACE TEAM INSTALLED A SOLAR POWER SYSTEM AT HERHOME IN KOGELO VILLAGE.image STORM OVER SODWANA BAY, SOUTH AFRICA.© GP/RICHARD DOBSON© ONEHEMISPHEREafrica: future investments in the heat sectorIn the heat sector, the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire also a major revision of current investment strategies.Especially solar, geothermal and heat pump technologies need anenormous increase in installations, if these potentials are to betapped for the heat sector. Installed capacity for direct heating(excluding district heating and CHP) need to be increased up toaround 1,000 GW for solar thermal and up to 300 GW forgeothermal and heat pumps. Capacity of biomass use for heatsupply needs to remain a pillar of heat supply, however currenttraditional combustion systems need to be replaced by newefficient technologies.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 1,170 billion to be invested in renewabledirect heating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 29 billion per year.table 5.27: africa: renewable heat generation capacitiesunder the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20093,6433,6430011003,6443,64420203,9833,513022163013,9853,67920304,4973,43108124411674,5093,94820405,1283,3600132368021735,1534,22620505,7603,049029341,03022515,7964,3585key results | AFRICA - INVESTMENTfigure 5.65: africa: investments for renewable heat generation technologiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 20501% SOLAR1% HEAT PUMPS7% GEOTHERMAL15% BIOMASS99% BIOMASS31% SOLARTotal $ 977 billionTotal $ 1,170 billion0% GEOTHERMAL47% HEAT PUMPS123

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKafricaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | AFRICA - EMPLOYMENT5africa: future employment in the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in Africa at every stage of the projection.• There are 3.5 million energy sector jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario in 2015, and 2.8 millionin the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 3.7 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 3 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 3.5 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 3.2 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.66 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe Reference scenario increase by 16% by 2030. Bionergyaccounts for the largest share of jobs in both scenarios.Strong growth in renewable energy leads to an increase of 28%in energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario by2015. Energy jobs increase to 36% above 2010 levels by 2020,and are still 28% above 2010 levels in 2030. Renewable energyaccounts for 73% of energy sector jobs by 2030, with biomasshaving the largest share (46%), followed by solar heating.figure 5.66: africa: employment in the energy scenariounder the reference and energy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.502010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.28: africa: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs10672311,8802,70914383791,8162,806134901171,9623,01418188872,0773,153761,07612,3093,461651,18732,4123,6675388152,5393,478Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs10046422,1233982,70911059562,0964852,80614251732,2175313,014164781082,3364663,153514149632,091.06453,4616141861142,0487053,6675952412192,0493743,478124

image A SOLAR COOKER BEING USED TO PREPARE POP CORN AT THE JERICHOCOMMUNITY CENTER. A SOLAR POWERED PUBLIC VIEWING AREA WAS CREATED FORTHE WORLD CUP.image ESKOM’S KUSILE POWER PLANT IN THE DELMAS MUNICIPAL AREA OF THEMPUMALANGA PROVINCE IS SET TO BECOME WORLDS FOURTH MOST POLLUTINGPOWER PLANT IN TERMS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS.© B. KURZEN/GP© SHAYNE ROBINSON/GPafrica: transportIn 2050, the car fleet in Africa will be significantly larger thantoday. Today, a large share of old cars are driven in Africa. Withgrowing individual mobility, an increasing share of small efficientcars is projected, with vehicle kilometres driven resemblingindustrialised countries averages. More efficient propulsiontechnologies, including hybrid-electric power trains, will help tolimit the growth in total transport energy demand to a factor of1.3, reaching 4,400 PJ/a in 2050. In Africa, the fleet of electricvehicles will grow to the point where almost 20% of totaltransport energy is covered by electricity.By 2030 electricity will provide 4% of the transport sector’stotal energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.Under both scenario road transport volumes increasessignificantly. However, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario,the total energy demand for road transport increases from 3,100PJ/a in 2009 to 3,940 PJ/a in 2050, compared to 6,390 PJ/a inthe Reference case.table 5.29: africa: transport energy demand by modeunder the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200936363,0963,09610510528283,2643,264202045523,8973,69713012738384,1103,914203052744,6553,92617715556524,9414,2072040611035,4933,96125720076685,8874,3322050731436,3933,94341025498796,9744,4205key results | AFRICA - TRANSPORTfigure 5.67: africa: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050125

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKafricaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | AFRICA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5africa: development of CO2 emissionsWhilst Africa’s emissions of CO2 will increase by 157% under theReference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they willdecrease from 928 million tonnes in 2009 to 381 million tonnes in2050. Annual per capita emissions will increase from 0.9 tonne to0.8 tonne in 2030 and decrease afterward to 0.2 tonne in 2050.In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewableelectricity in vehicles will also significantly reduce emissions in thetransport sector. With a share of 51% of CO2 emissions in 2050,the transport sector will be the largest energy related source ofemissions. By 2050, Africa’s CO2 emissions are 70% of1990 levels.africa: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primaryenergy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shownin Figure 5.69. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primaryenergy demand will be reduced by 23% in 2050. Around 84% of theremaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.The coal demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario will peak by2020 with 3,700 PJ/a compared to 4,560 PJ/a in 2009 anddecrease afterwards to 869 PJ/a by 2050. This is made possiblemainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables after 20rather than 40 years lifetime. This leads to an overall renewableprimary energy share of 63% in 2030 and 84% in 2050. Nuclearenergy is phased out before 2030.figure 5.68: africa: development of CO2 emissionsby sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/a2,5002,0001,5001,0005000REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople2,2002,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000figure 5.69: africa: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0126REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image PANORAMIC VIEW OF THE SOMAIR URANIUM MINE IN ARLIT, OPERATED BYFRENCH COMPANY AREVA.image CRACKED SOIL IN AKOKAN.© GP/PHILIP REYNAERS© GP/PHILIP REYNAERStable 5.30: africa: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-27.0182.9155.918.77.619.90.046.22021 - 2030-64.1375.9311.730.698.5100.50.0229.62031 - 2040-69.9463.2393.337.8392.4256.60.0686.92041 - 2050-69.9463.2393.340.4967.2626.10.01,633.72011 - 2050-301.11,778.71,477.5127.51,465.71,003.00.02,596.32011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-7.544.536.93.236.625.10.064.95key results | AFRICA - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS127

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmiddle eastGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | MIDDLE EAST - DEMAND5middle east: energy demand by sectorThe future development pathways for Middle East’s energydemand are shown in Figure 5.70 for the Reference and theEnergy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, totalprimary energy demand in Middle East increases by 104% fromthe current 24,750 PJ/a to about 50,600 PJ/a in 2050. Theenergy demand in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenarioincreases by 9% compared to current consumption and it isexpected by 2050 to reach 27,100 PJ/a.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in theindustry as well as in the residential, and service sectors isexpected to stagnate after 2020 (see Figure 5.71). Because ofthe growing use of electric vehicles however, electricityconsumption increases strongly to 1,958 TWh/a by 2050 just10% below the electricity demand of the Reference case.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in theelectricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, finaldemand for heat supply can eventually even be reducedsignificantly (see Figure 5.73). Compared to the Referencescenario, consumption equivalent to 1,939 PJ/a is avoidedthrough efficiency measures by 2050. As a result of energyrelatedrenovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, aswell as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passivehouses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort andenergy services will be accompanied by a much lower futureenergy demand.figure 5.70: middle east: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT200920152020203020402050128

image A LARGE POWER PLANT ALONG THE ROCKY COASTLINE IN CAESAREA, ISRAEL.image WIND TURBINES IN THE GOLAN HEIGHTS IN ISRAEL.© Y. TAFLEV/DREAMSTIME© N. ARMONN/DREAMSTIMEfigure 5.71: middle east: development of electricitydemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050figure 5.73: middle east: development of heat demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)10,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20505key results | MIDDLE EAST - DEMAND‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.72: middle east: development of the transportdemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROADRAIL129

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmiddle eastGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | MIDDLE EAST - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5middle east: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market is charaterised bya dynamically growing renewable energy market. This willcompensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy, reduce thenumber of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for gridstabilisation and will cover the demand for additionally necessarystorable fuels such as hydrogen (increasing to more than 900 TWhin 2050). By 2050, 98% of the electricity produced in Middle Eastwill come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables –mainly wind, PV and solar thermal energy – will contribute 94%of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projectsan immediate market development with high annual growth ratesachieving a renewable electricity share of 27% already by 2020and 62% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach412 GW in 2030 and 1089 GW by 2050.Table 5.31 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in Middle East over time. Up to 2020wind, photovoltaics and solar thermal power will overtake hydroas the main contributor of the growing market share. After 2020,the continuing growth of wind, PV and CSP will becomplemented by electricity from geothermal and ocean energy.The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share offluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind andocean) of 32% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids,demand side management (DSM) and new storage capacities e.g.from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for abetter grid integration and power generation management.table 5.31: middle east: renewable electricity generationcapacity under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200966000000000000662020181812231022471250425130203024241451060481623102094241220402525261018101611340414602952742205028283814283020164746235041671,089figure 5.74: middle east: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050130

image THE BAHRAIN WORLD TRADE CENTER IN MANAMA GENERATES PART OF ITSOWN ENERGY USING WIND TURBINES.image SUBURBS OF DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES.© O. ÇAM/DREAMSTIME© S. WEIWEI/DREAMSTIMEmiddle east: future costs of electricity generationFigure 5.75 shows that the introduction of renewable technologiesunder the Energy [R]evolution scenario does not increase the costsof electricity generation in Middle East compared to the Referencescenario - if fossil fuel prices and investment costs are assumedaccording to the pathways defined in Chapter 4. Because of thelower CO2 intensity of electricity generation and the high share ofgas power plants in the Reference scenario, electricity generationcosts will become economically favourable under the Energy[R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be about 20cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, anincrease in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result intotal electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 146 billion peryear to more than $ 751 billion in 2050. Figure 5.75 shows thatthe Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with MiddleEast’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energycosts. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply torenewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are44% lower in 2050 than in the Reference scenario.figure 5.75: middle east: total electricity supply costsand specific electricity generation costs undertwo scenariosUnder the Reference version, the levels of investment inconventional power plants add up to almost 66% whileapproximately 34% would be invested in renewable energy andcogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, however, Middle East would shift almost 96% of theentire investment towards renewables and cogeneration.Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment wouldbe focused mainly on CHP plants. The average annual investmentin the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenariobetween today and 2050 would be approximately $ 96 billion.Because renewable energy except biomass has no fuel costs,however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenarioreach a total of $ 8,281 billion up to 2050, or $ 207 billion peryear. The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover 270% ofthe total additional investments compared to the Referencescenario. These renewable energy sources would then go on toproduce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050,while the costs for fossil fuels will continue to be a burden onnational economies.figure 5.76: middle east: investment shares - referencescenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario5key results | MIDDLE EAST - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONBn$/a800700600500ct/kWh302520REF 2011 - 20502% CHP5% NUCLEAR32% RENEWABLES40015Total $ 716 billion3002001000105061% FOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])middle east: future investments in the power sectorIt would require $ 3,840 billion in investment for the Energy[R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investmentsfor replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 3,124 billion or $ 78 billion annually more thanin the Reference scenario ($ 716 billion).E[R] 2011 - 2050Total $ 3,840 billion4% FOSSIL3%CHP93% RENEWABLES131

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmiddle eastGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | MIDDLE EAST - HEATINGmiddle east: heating supplyRenewables currently provide 0.5% of Middle East’s energydemand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from theuse of biomass. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewablesprovide 34% of Middle East’s total heat demand in 2030 and89% in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures can lower specific process heatconsumption and can therefore limit demand increase in a regionwith a fast growing population and increasing industrial activities.• For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well asgeothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossilfuel-fired systems.• The introduction of strict efficiency measures e.g. via ambitioussupport programs for renewable heating systems are needed toachieve economies of scale within the next 5 to 10 years.Table 5.32 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heating in Middle East over time. Up to 2020solar energy becomes the main contributor of the growing marketshare. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors anda growing share of geothermal energy and heat pumps cansignificantly reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.table 5.32: middle east: renewable heating capacitiesunder the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]2009202055110027272020321006257132160145971,032203048203901,449753805041462,6942040693941132,954141,02607541965,1272050775081514,426391,70808902677,531figure 5.77: middle east: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)10,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050132

image A RIVER IN AFGHANISTAN.image GREENPEACE SURVEY OF GULF WAR OIL POLLUTION IN KUWAIT. AERIALVIEW OF OIL IN THE SEA.© ANNA LENNARTSDOTTER© GP/CHRISTIAN ASLUNDmiddle east: future investmentsin the heat sectorAlso in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire a major revision of current investment strategies inheating technologies. Especially the not yet so common spreadsolar, geothermal and heat pump technologies need enormousincrease in installations, if these potentials are to be tapped forthe heat sector. Installed capacity needs to increase by a factor of680 for solar thermal and by a factor of 560 for geothermal andheat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies, which are alreadyrather wide spread increase by the factor of 13.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 951 billion to be invested in renewableheating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 24 billion per year.table 5.33: middle east: renewable heat generationcapacities under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20093300110044202061602012110117181632030923034172361512834420401432044224583913862520501543076296637131529145key results | MIDDLE EAST - INVESTMENTfigure 5.78: middle east: investments for renewable heat generation technologiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 205016% SOLAR37% SOLAR25% GEOTHERMAL38% HEAT PUMPSTotal $ 38 billion0% GEOTHERMALTotal $ 951 billion5% BIOMASS46% BIOMASS33% HEAT PUMPS133

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmiddle eastGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | MIDDLE EAST - EMPLOYMENT5middle east: future employmentin the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in Middle East at every stage of the projection.• There are 1.8 million energy sector jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario in 2015, and 1.3 millionin the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 2 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 1.4 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 1.6 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 1.5 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.79 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe Reference scenario increase gradually to 12% above 2010levels by 2030. The gas sector accounts for 95% of energy sectorjobs in this scenario.Growth in renewable energy leads to an increase of 37% in totalenergy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario by 2015,and compensates for a decline in gas sector jobs. There is areduction between 2020 and 2030, but Energy [R]evolution jobsremain 23% above 2010 levels in 2030.figure 5.79: middle east: employmentin the energy scenario under the referenceand energy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions2.52.01.51.00.502010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.34: middle east: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs71,2289731,31721,24114871,34411,34015661,42211,4095641,47911,18406131,79811,23707421,980186307491,613Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs12350519001931,3179027709601961,3446321791,0572031,4224521891,1821431,47945211986935.22071,7984851261271,0292131,980400109196821871,613134

image LAKE OF OIL, AL BURGAN OILFIELD, KUWAIT.image ASHDOD COAL POWER PLANT IN ISRAEL.© GP/JIM HODSON© GP/PIERRE GLEIZESmiddle east: transportIn the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy[R]evolution scenario compared to the Refence scenario anenergy demand reduction of 8,160 PJ/a or 66% can be achievedby 2050. Energy demand will therefore decrease between 2009and 2050 by 11% to 4,140 PJ/a (including energy for pipelinetransport). This reduction can be achieved by the introduction ofhighly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods fromroad to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviourpatterns. Implementing a mix of increased public transport asattractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock is growingslower and annual person kilometres are lower than in theReference scenario.A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentivestogether with a significant shift in propulsion technology towardselectrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometrestravelled per year leads to significant energy savings. In 2030,electricity will provide 9% of the transport sector’s total energydemand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the sharewill be 41%.table 5.35: middle east: transport energy demandby mode under the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]2009114,6234,6233838004,6624,6622020247,1905,9615148007,2436,01320302810,0245,37361580010,0865,438204021211,1294,48158550011,1894,549205021912,2024,05853500012,2564,1275key results | MIDDLE EAST - TRANSPORTfigure 5.80: middle east: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050135

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmiddle eastGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | MIDDLE EAST - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5middle east: development of CO2 emissionsWhile CO2 emissions in Middle East will increase by 104% in theReference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they willdecrease from 1,510 million tonnes in 2009 to 173 million tonnesin 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 7.4 tonnes to 4tonnes in 2030 and 0.5 tonne in 2050. In spite of the phasing outof nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions willdecrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains andthe increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will evenreduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 13% ofCO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop below transportas the largest sources of emissions. By 2050, Middle East’s CO2emissions are 31% of 1990 levels.middle east: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resultingprimary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario isshown in Figure 5.81. Compared to the Reference scenario, overallprimary energy demand will be reduced by 45% in 2050.The Energy [R]evolution version phases out fossil fuels about 10 to15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenariopublished in 2010 This is made possible mainly by replacement ofcoal power plants with renewables and a faster introduction of veryefficient electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace oilcombustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable primaryenergy share of 26% in 2030 and 75% in 2050. Nuclear energy isphased out just after 2030.figure 5.81: middle east: development of CO2 emissionsby sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/a3,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople350300250200150100500figure 5.82: middle east: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)50,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0136REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image ALMOST A MONTH AFTER THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE BOMBED IT, SMOKE STILLRISES FROM THE JIYEH POWER PLANT, 20 MILES SOUTH OF BEIRUT. THE ATTACKCAUSED A MASSIVE OIL SPILL THAT HAS BROUGHT AN ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERUPON THE SHORES OF LEBANON.image AN AEROPLANE FLIES OVER BEIRUT CITY.© J. OERLEMANS/PANOS/GP© GP/PIERRE GLEIZEStable 5.36: middle east: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-50.8367.7316.8156.425.61.40.0183.42021 - 2030-85.1801.0715.9616.8501.52.70.01,121.02031 - 2040-85.5811.0725.5712.41,897.53.70.02,613.72041 - 2050-85.5811.0725.5622.03,735.55.20.04,362.72011 - 2050-329.43,453.53,124.12,107.66,160.113.10.08,280.82011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-8.286.378.152.7154.00.30.0207.05key results | MIDDLE EAST - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS137

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKeastern europe/eurasiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - DEMAND5eastern europe/eurasia: energy demand by sectorCombining the projections on population development, GDPgrowth and energy intensity results in future developmentpathways for Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s final energy demand.These are shown in Figure 5.83 for the Reference and the Energy[R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primaryenergy demand increases by 46% from the current 47,166 PJ/ato 69,013 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario,primary energy demand decreases by 21% compared to currentconsumption and it is expected to reach 37,240 PJ/a by 2050.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand isincrease to decrease in both the industry sector, the residentialand service sectors, as well in the transport sector (see Figure5.84). Total electricity demand (final energy) will rise from1,154 TWh/a to 2,122 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared tothe Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry,residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 743TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular byintroducing highly efficient electronic devices using the bestavailable technology in all demand sectors.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Underthe Energy [R]evolution scenario, heat demand is expected todecrease almost constantly (see Figure 5.86). Compared to theReference scenario, consumption equivalent to 10,028 PJ/a isavoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energyrelatedrenovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, aswell as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passivehouses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort andenergy services will be accompanied by a much lower futureenergy demand.figure 5.83: eastern europe/eurasia: total final energy demand by sector underthe reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT200920152020203020402050138

image AN INDIGENOUS NENET WOMAN WITH HER REINDEER. THE NENETS PEOPLEMOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR HERDS DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND.THE ENTIRE REGION AND ITS INHABITANTS ARE UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBALWARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.image A SITE OF A DISAPPEARED LAKE AFTER PERMAFROST SUBSIDENCE IN RUSSIA.© GP/STEVE MORGAN© GP/WILL ROSEfigure 5.84: eastern europe/eurasia: developmentof electricity demand by sector in theenergy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORTfigure 5.86: eastern europe/eurasia: development ofheat demand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRY5key results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - DEMANDfigure 5.85: eastern europe/eurasia: developmentof the transport demand by sector in theenergy [r]evolution scenario9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONRAILDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROAD139

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKeastern europe/eurasiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5eastern europe/eurasia: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply sector is charaterisedby a dynamically growing renewable energy market and anincreasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate forthe phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossilfuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050,94% of the electricity produced in Eastern Europe/Eurasia willcome from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainlywind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 73% ofelectricity generation. Already by 2020 the share of renewableelectricity production will be 32% and 57% by 2030. Theinstalled capacity of renewables will reach 560 GW in 2030 and1,312 GW by 2050.Table 5.37 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in Eastern Europe/Eurasia over time. Upto 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of thegrowing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of windwill mainly be complemented by electricity from biomass andphotovoltaics. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to ahigh share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic,wind and ocean) of 32% by 2030, therefore the expansion ofsmart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storagecapacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be usedfor a better grid integration and power generation management.table 5.37: eastern europe/eurasia: renewable electricitygeneration capacity under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20099090110000000000919120209710821689814170006109238203010710953614328213360020121305602040119113857346193327163080161701,0092050130114106647776356102700120172001,311figure 5.87: eastern europe/eurasia: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050140

image CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR POWER STATION, UKRAINE.image THE SUN OVER LAKE BAIKAL, RUSSIA.© GP/SHIRLEY© GP/MIZUKOSHIeastern europe/eurasia: future costsof electricity generationFigure 5.88 shows that the introduction of renewable technologiesunder the Energy [R]evolution scenario significantly decreases thefuture costs of electricity generation compared to the Referencescenario. This difference will be less than $ 1.5 cent/kWh up to2020, however. Because of high prices for conventional fuels and thelower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generationcosts will become even more economically favourable under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 12.9cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, on the other hand, unchecked growthin demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s$ 282 billion per year to more than $ 830 billion in 2050. Figure5.88 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not onlycomplies with Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s CO2 reduction targets, butalso helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve the economicpressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energysupply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supplythat are more than 55% lower than in the Reference scenario.approximately $ 1,961 billion (or annually $ 49 billion) morethan in the Reference scenario ($ 1,424 billion). Under theReference version, the levels of investment in conventional powerplants add up to almost 48% while approximately 52% would beinvested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, EasternEurope/Eurasia would shift almost 97% of the entire investmenttowards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuelshare of power sector investment would be focused mainly onCHP plants. The average annual investment in the power sectorunder the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050would be approximately $ 85 billion.Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuelcost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of$ 7,705 billion up to 2050, or $ 193 billion per year. The totalfuel cost savings therefore would cover 390% of the totaladditional investments compared to the Reference scenario. Theserenewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricitywithout any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs forcoal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.5key results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONfigure 5.88: eastern europe/eurasia: total electricitysupply costs and specific electricity generation costsunder two scenariosfigure 5.89: eastern europe/eurasia: investment shares -reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenarioBn$/a900800700ct/kWh2520REF 2011 - 205016% CHP36% RENEWABLES6005004003001510Total $ 1,424 billion29% NUCLEAR20010005019% FOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])E[R] 2011 - 20503% FOSSIL24% CHPeastern europe/eurasia: future investmentsin the power sectorTotal $ 3,385 billionIt would require $ 3,385 billion in investment for the Energy[R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investmentsfor replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -73% RENEWABLES141

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKeastern europe/eurasiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - HEATINGeastern europe/eurasia: heating supplyToday, renewables meet 3% of Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s heatdemand, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass.The construction and expansion of district heating networks is acrucial prerequisite for the large scale utilisation of geothermaland solar thermal energy. Dedicated support instruments arerequired to ensure a dynamic development. In the Energy[R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 45% of EasternEurope/Eurasia’s total heat demand in 2030 and 91% in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures help to reduce the currently growingenergy demand for heating by 42 % in 2050 (relative to thereference scenario), in spite of improving living standards.• In the industry sector solar collectors, geothermal energy (incl.heat pumps), and electricity and hydrogen from renewablesources are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems.• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remainingconventional applications leads to a further reduction ofCO2 emissions.Table 5.38 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heat Eastern Europe/Eurasia over time. Up to2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growingmarket share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solarcollectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps willreduce the dependence on fossil fuels.table 5.38: eastern europe/eurasia: renewable heatingcapacities under the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200952352333770053353320206351,799667871,03801136473,62820307563,098101,450102,46003167777,32420408863,659141,961584,811062095711,05120501,0253,643182,237776,16208571,12012,900figure 5.90: eastern europe/eurasia: heat supply structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050142

image LAKE BAIKAL, RUSSIA.image SOLAR PANELS IN A NATURE RESERVE IN CAUCASUSU, RUSSIA.© GP/VADIM KANTOR© GP/VADIM KANTOReastern europe/eurasia: future investmentsin the heat sectorAlso in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire a major revision of current investment strategies inheating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar andgeothermal and heat pump technologies need enourmous increasein installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heatsector. Installed capacity needs to increase by a factor of 700 forsolar thermal and even by a factor of 800 for geothermal andheat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies, which are alreadyrather wide spread still need to increase by a factor of 3 and willremain a main pillar of heat supplyRenewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar themaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 3,648 billion to be invested in renewableheating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 91 billion per year.table 5.39: eastern europe/eurasia: renewable heatgeneration capacities under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]2009979700111110010020201102391125218505411360320301263571225339511721311,15020401453662411452983231581,63020501653152492557794231811,8075key results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - INVESTMENTfigure 5.91: eastern europe/eurasia: investments for renewable heat generation technologiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 20505% SOLAR24% SOLAR3% GEOTHERMAL10% HEAT PUMPS39% GEOTHERMALTotal $ 182 billionTotal $ 3,648 billion29% HEAT PUMPS82% BIOMASS8% BIOMASS143

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKeastern europe/eurasiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - EMPLOYMENT5eastern europe/eurasia: future employmentin the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in Eastern Europe/Eurasia at every stage of the projection.• There are 2 million energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario in 2015, and 1.6 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 2 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 1.5 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 1.6 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 1.4 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.92 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe Reference scenario reduce gradually over the period, leadingto an overall decline of 17% by 2030.Exceptionally strong growth in renewable energy leads to anincrease of 16% in total energy sector jobs in the Energy[R]evolution scenario by 2015. Jobs continue to grow until 2020.By 2030, jobs fall below 2010 levels, but are 0.2 million morethan in the Reference scenario. Renewable energy accounts for64% of energy jobs by 2030, with biomass having the greatestshare (24%).figure 5.92: eastern europe/eurasia: employmentin the energy scenario under the reference andenergy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions2.52.01.51.00.502010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.40: eastern europe/eurasia: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs745692751761,688637727691581,591587742521621,542509709331461,398498715327191,965309660329941,994153386329991,570Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs125371879753631,68875201779114081,59157191718494471,54242171468193731,398330161203920.23511,9654132142328662691,9943252262626531041,570144

image DOCUMENTATION OF OIL POLLUTION AT OIL FIELDS IN THE KOMI-REGION,RUSSIA.THE EXPLOITATION OF OIL CAUSES A STEADY POLLUTION DUE TO OLD ANDBROKEN PIPELINES. RIVER KOLVA.image GAS FLARING IN RUSSIA.© DANIEL MUELLER/GP© DANIEL MUELLER/GPeastern europe/eurasia: transportA key target in Eastern Europe/Eurasia is to introduce incentivesfor people to drive smaller cars, something almost completelyabsent today. In addition, it is vital to shift transport use toefficient modes like rail, light rail and buses, especially in theexpanding large metropolitan areas. Together with rising prices forfossil fuels, these changes reduce the huge growth in car salesprojected under the Reference scenario. Compared to the Referencescenario, energy demand from the transport sector is reduced by5,948 PJ/a 2050, saving 60% compared to the Referencescenario. Energy demand in the transport sector will thereforedecrease between 2009 and 2050 by 28% to 4,012 PJ/a(including energy for pipeline transport).Highly efficient propulsion technology with hybrid, plug-in hybridand batteryelectric power trains will bring large efficiency gains.By 2030, electricity will provide 21% of the transport sector’stotal energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050the share will be 46%.table 5.41: eastern europe/eurasia: transport energydemand by mode under the reference scenario and theenergy [r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20095315313,4353,43522822853534,2474,24720207776504,1113,79433733766665,2924,84820309366554,7203,41138234771646,1094,47820401,1567055,3412,88242935772566,9984,00020501,3317666,0482,48347436575497,9283,6625key results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - TRANSPORTfigure 5.93: eastern europe/eurasia: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050145

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKeastern europe/eurasiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5eastern europe/eurasia: development of CO2 emissionsWhilst Eastern Europe/Eurasia`s emissions of CO2 will increase by43% between 2009 and 2050 under the Reference scenario,under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from2,483 million tonnes in 2009 to 243 million tonnes in 2050.Annual per capita emissions will drop from 7.3 tonnes to 0.7tonne. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasingdemand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. Inthe long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewableenergy in vehicles will reduce emissions in the transport sector.With a share of 43% of CO2, the power sector will be the largestsources of emissions in 2050. By 2050, Eastern Europe/Eurasia’sCO2 emissions are 94% below 1990 levels.eastern europe/eurasia: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the assumptions discussed above, theresulting primary energy consumption under the Energy[R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.95. Compared to theReference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be lowerby 46% in 2050. Around 78% of the remaining demand will becovered by renewable energy sources.The Energy [R]evolution version aims to phases out coal and oil asfast as technically and economically possible. This is made possiblemainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables and afast introduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transportsector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overallrenewable primary energy share of 36% in 2030 and 78% in2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2035.figure 5.94: eastern europe/eurasia: development of CO2emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolutionscenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/a4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople350300250200150100500figure 5.95: eastern europe/eurasia: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0146REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image AN AERIAL VIEW OF PERMAFROST TUNDRA IN THE YAMAL PENINSULA. THEENTIRE REGION IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING ASTEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIAS ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.image A VIEW OF THE NEW MUSLYUMOVO VILLAGE, JUST 1,6 KMS OUTSIDE THE OLDMUSLYUMOVO, ONE OF THE COUNTRY’S MOST LETHAL NUCLEAR DUMPING GROUNDS.© GP/STEVE MORGAN© DENIS SINYAKOV/GPtable 5.42: eastern europe/eurasia: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-161.4291.8130.551.5144.129.98.4234.02021 - 2030-158.4504.8346.4114.7910.172.133.21,130.12031 - 2040-139.1868.9729.8101.32,250.8149.762.52,564.32041 - 2050-171.0925.1754.179.43,376.7235.085.53,776.52011 - 2050-629.92,590.71,960.8346.86,681.7486.7189.67,704.82011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-15.764.849.08.7167.012.24.7192.65key results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS147

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKindiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | INDIA - DEMAND5india: energy demand by sectorThe future development pathways for India’s energy demand areshown in Figure 5.96 for the Reference scenario and the Energy[R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, totalprimary energy demand in India increases by 206% from thecurrent 29,149 PJ/a to about 89,100 PJ/a in 2050. In theEnergy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demandincreases by 70% compared to current consumption and it isexpected by 2050 to reach 49,600 PJ/a.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in theindustrial, residential, and service sectors is expected to fallslightly below the current level (see Figure 5.97). In the transportsector – for both freight and persons – a shift towards electrictrains and public transport as well as efficient electric vehicles isexpected. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation arealso phased out and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumpsand hydrogen. This means that electricity demand in the Energy[R]evolution increases in those sectors. Total electricity demandreaches 4,050 TWh/a in 2050, 4% above the Reference case.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in theelectricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, finaldemand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly(see Figure 5.99). Compared to the Reference scenario,consumption equivalent to 3560 PJ/a is avoided throughefficiency measures by 2050.figure 5.96: india: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)55,00050,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT200920152020203020402050148

image AJIT DAS LIVES IN GHORAMARA ISLAND AND IS ONE OF THE MANY PEOPLEAFFECTED BY SEA LEVEL RISE: “WE CANNOT STAY HERE BECAUSE OF THE GANGA’SFLOODING. WE HAVE MANY PROBLEMS. WE DON’T KNOW WHERE WE WILL GO ORWHAT WE WILL DO. WE CANNOT BRING OUR GRANDCHILDREN UP HERE. WHATEVERTHE GOVERNMENT DECIDES FOR US, WE SHALL FOLLOW THEIR GUIDANCE.EVERYTHING IS GOING UNDER THE WATER. WHILE THE EDGE OF THE LAND ISBREAKING IN GHORAMARA, THE MIDDLE OF THE RIVER IS BECOMING SHALLOWER.WE DON’T KNOW WHERE WE WILL GO OR WHAT WE WILL DO”.image VILLAGERS ORDER THEMSELVES INTO QUEUE TO RECEIVE SOME EMERGENCYRELIEF SUPPLY PROVIDED BY A LOCAL NGO. SCIENTISTS ESTIMATE THAT OVER70,000 PEOPLE, LIVING EFFECTIVELY ON THE FRONT LINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, WILLBE DISPLACED FROM THE SUNDARBANS DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE BY THE YEAR 2030.© GP/PETER CATON© GP/PETER CATONfigure 5.97: india: development of electricity demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)15,00012,0009,0006,0003,000figure 5.99: india: development of heat demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)18,00015,00012,0009,0006,0003,0005key results | INDIA - DEMANDPJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20502009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.98: india: development of the transportdemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario18,00015,00012,0009,0006,0003,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROADRAIL149

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKindiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | INDIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5india: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market is charaterisedby a dynamically growing renewable energy market and anincreasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate forthe phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossilfuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050,92% of the electricity produced in India will come fromrenewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solarthermal energy and PV – will contribute 74% of electricitygeneration. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects animmediate market development with high annual growth ratesachieving a renewable electricity share of 32% already by 2020and 62% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables willreach 548 GW in 2030 and 1,356 GW by 2050.Table 5.43 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in India over time. Up to 2020 hydro andwind will remain the main contributors of the growing marketshare. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will becomplemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics andsolar thermal (CSP) energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenariowill lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources(photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 31% by 2030 and 40% by2050, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand sidemanagement (DSM) and storage capacity e.g. from the increasedshare of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integrationand power generation management.table 5.43: india: renewable electricity generationcapacity under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]2009393922111100000000525220205562413309601103004019920720307764101942185024261610790171555482040986618385126506044338014202921393720501196727626033501036851912230472761,356figure 5.100: india: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050150

image A LOCAL BENGALI WOMAN PLANTS A MANGROVE (SUNDARI) SAPLING ONSAGAR ISLAND IN THE ECOLOGICALLY SENSITIVE SUNDERBANS RIVER DELTAREGION, IN WEST BENGAL. THOUSANDS OF LOCAL PEOPLE WILL JOIN THEMANGROVE PLANTING INITIATIVE LED BY PROFESSOR SUGATA HAZRA FROMJADAVAPUR UNIVERSITY, WHICH WILL HELP TO PROTECT THE COAST FROM EROSIONAND WILL ALSO PROVIDE NUTRIENTS FOR FISH AND CAPTURE CARBON IN THEIREXTENSIVE ROOT SYSTEMS.image FEMALE WORKER CLEANING A SOLAR OVEN AT A COLLEGE IN TILONIA,RAJASTHAN, INDIA.© GP/PETER CATON© MARCUS FRANKEN/GPindia: future costs of electricity generationFigure 5.101 shows that the introduction of renewable technologiesunder the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costsof electricity generation in India compared to the Referencescenario. This difference will be less than $ 1 cent/kWh up to 2020,however. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricitygeneration, electricity generation costs will become economicallyfavourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050costs will be $ 7.2 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, by contrast, unchecked growth indemand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $100 billion per year to more than $ 932 billion in 2050. Figure5.101 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not onlycomplies with India’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps tostabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shiftingenergy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricitysupply that are 23% lower than in the Reference scenario.plants add up to almost 56% while approximately 44% would beinvested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, India wouldshift almost 97% of the entire investment towards renewablesand cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of powersector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants. Theaverage annual investment in the power sector under the Energy[R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would beapproximately $ 117 billion.Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuelcost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of$ 5,500 billion up to 2050, or $ 138 billion per year. The totalfuel cost savings herefore would cover 200% of the totaladditional investments compared to the Reference scenario. Theserenewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricitywithout any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs forcoal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.5key results | INDIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONfigure 5.101: india: total electricity supply costsand specific electricity generation costsunder two scenariosfigure 5.102: india: investment shares - referencescenario versus energy [r]evolution scenarioBn$/a1,000800REF 2011 - 20505% CHP13% NUCLEAR600400Total $ 1,905 billion38% RENEWABLES2000ct/kWh18161412108642044% FOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])E[R] 2011 - 20503% FOSSIL & NUCLEAR11% CHPindia: future investments in the power sectorTotal $ 4,680 billionIt would require about $ 4,680 billion in additional investmentfor the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (includinginvestments for replacement after the economic lifetime of theplants) - approximately $ 117 billion annually or $ 69 billionmore than in the Reference scenario ($ 1,905 billion). Under theReference version, the levels of investment in conventional power86% RENEWABLES151

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKindiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | INDIA - HEATINGindia: heating supplyRenewables currently provide 55% of India’s energy demand forheat supply, the main contribution coming from biomass.Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamicfuture development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario,renewables provide 68% of India’s total heat demand in 2030and 91% in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures can decrease the specific demand inspite of improving living standards.• For direct heating, solar collectors, new biomass/biogas heatingsystems as well as geothermal energy are increasingly substitutingfor fossil fuel-fired systems and traditional biomass use.• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remainingconventional applications will lead to a further reduction ofCO2 emissions.Table 5.44 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heating in India over time. After 2020, thecontinuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share ofgeothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuelsand biomass.table 5.44: india: renewable heating capacities under thereference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario INGWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20095,4975,497111100005,5085,50820205,8136,117287425205005,8457,06420305,8335,951471,981228140655,9028,81120405,8685,852902,989491,90803416,00811,09020505,9945,2421594,215733,11607416,22613,313figure 5.103: india: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)18,00015,00012,0009,0006,0003,000PJ/a 0REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL200920152020203020402050152

image NANLINIKANT BISWAS, FARMER AGE 43. FIFTEEN YEARS AGO NANLINIKANT’SFAMILY ONCE LIVED WHERE THE SEA IS NOW. THEY WERE AFFLUENT AND OWNEDFOUR ACRES OF LAND. BUT RISING SEAWATER INCREASED THE SALINITY OF THESOIL UNTIL THEY COULD NO LONGER CULTIVATE IT, KANHAPUR, ORISSA, INDIA.image A SOLAR DISH WHICH IS ON TOP OF THE SOLAR KITCHENAT AUROVILLE,TAMIL NADU, INDIA.© GP/DANIEL BELTRÁ© GP/JOHN NOVISindia: future investments in the heat sectorAlso in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire a major revision of current investment strategies inheating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar andgeothermal and heat pump technologies need enormous increasein installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heatsector. Installed capacity need to increase by the factor of 360for solar thermal compared to 2009 and - if compared to theReference scenario - by the factor of 130 for geothermal andheat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies will remain a mainpillar of heat supply.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 1,293 billion to be invested in renewableheating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 32 billion per year.table 5.45: india: renewable heat generation capacitiesunder the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20092,0822,0820033002,0842,08420202,1972,17301161701172,2052,37020302,1761,954023114524622,1912,49120402,1271,6990652166991002,1572,53320502,0821,333012037927141412,1322,5215key results | INDIA - INVESTMENTfigure 5.104: india: investments for renewable heat generation technologiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 20501% SOLAR6% HEAT PUMPS8% GEOTHERMAL38% SOLARTotal $ 444 billion93% BIOMASSTotal $ 1,293 billion28% BIOMASS0% GEOTHERMAL26% HEAT PUMPS153

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKindiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | INDIA - EMPLOYMENT5india: future employment in the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in India at 2015 and 2020. In 2030, job numbers are thesame in both scenarios.• There are 2.3 million energy sector jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario in 2015, and 1.7 millionin the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 2.4 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 1.8 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 1.5 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and the Reference scenario.Figure 5.105 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe Reference scenario reduce sharply, by 29% by 2015, and39% by 2030.Exceptionally strong growth in renewable energy compensates forsome of the losses in the fossil fuel sector, particularly in earlieryears. Energy [R]evolution jobs fall by 4% by 2015, increasesomewhat by 2020, and then reduce to 38% below 2010 levelsby 2030. Renewable energy accounts for 78% of energy jobs by2030, with biomass having the greatest share (27%), followed bysolar heating, solar PV, and wind.figure 5.105: india: employment in the energy scenariounder the reference and energy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions3.02.52.01.51.00.502010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.46: india: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs1,142165331,0642,405735134398091,716880138397381,794842156294321,46058215681,5582,30446713171,8082,41220812031,1571,488Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs4942461351,530-2,4052211111521,233-1,7163271551541,159-1,79422799147987-1,4604044281611,310.2-2,3045914962001,125-2,412393274190632-1,488154

image CHILDREN STUDY UNDER THE SOLAR POWERED STREETLIGHTS INODANTHURAI PANCHAYAT, TAMIL NADU. WHILE MOST OF THE PANCHAYAT HAS NOWBEEN RENOVATED AS NEW HOUSING BLOCKS WITH ELECTRICITY CONNECTIONS,THERE REMAIN A FEW WHERE THE ONLY ELECTRICAL LIGHT IS IN THE STREET.image A NURSE CLEANS SWETA KUMARIS’S STITCHES WITH INSTRUMENTSSTERILIZED BY SOLAR POWERED STEAM IN TRIPOLIO HOSPITAL, PATNA.© S. LAKSHMANAN/GP© H. KATRAGADDA/GPindia: transportIn the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy[R]evolution scenario that energy demand increase can beeffectively limited, saving 12,541 PJ/a by 2050 or 68%compared to the Reference scenario. Energy demand willtherefore increase between 2009 and 2050 by only 178% to6,000 PJ/a. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction ofhighly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods fromroad to rail and by changes in mobility related behaviourpatterns. Implementing a mix of increased public transport asattractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock is growingslower and annual person kilometres are lower than in theReference scenario.A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentivestogether with a significant shift in propulsion technology towardselectrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometrestravelled by 0.25% per year leads to significant energy savings.In 2030, electricity will provide 17% of the transport sector’stotal energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050the share will be 58%.table 5.47: india: transport energy demand by mode underthe reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20091491491,8921,892626253532,1562,15620202022572,9852,58711511570633,3723,02220302744306,2104,1692462091161016,8464,910204034651811,3344,79145731720812812,3455,754205042769017,0814,69372347831314218,5446,0025key results | INDIA - TRANSPORTfigure 5.106: india: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario20,00016,00012,0008,0004,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050155

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKindiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | INDIA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5india: development of CO2 emissionsWhilst India’s emissions of CO2 will increase by 251% under theReference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they willdecrease from 1,704 million tonnes in 2009 to 426 million tonnesin 2050. Annual per capita emissions will fall from 1.4 tonnes to1 tonne in 2030 and 0.3 tonne in 2050. In the long run, efficiencygains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles willalso significantly reduce emissions in the transport sector. With ashare of 34% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the power generationsector will remain the largest energy related source of emissions.By 2050, India’s CO2 emissions are 72% of 1990 levels.india: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primaryenergy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario isshown in Figure 5.108. Compared to the Reference scenario,overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 45% in 2050.Around 81% of the remaining demand (including non energyconsumption) will be covered by renewable energy sources.The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 10 to15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenariopublished in 2010. This is made possible mainly by replacement ofcoal power plants with renewables after 20 rather than 40 yearslifetime and a faster introduction of electric vehicles in the transportsector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overallrenewable primary energy share of 48% in 2030 and 81% in 2050.Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2045.figure 5.107: india: development of CO2 emissionsby sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/a7,0001,8006,0001,6001,4005,0001,2004,0001,0003,0008002,0006004001,0002000 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeoplefigure 5.108: india: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0156REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image ANANTHAMMA, A LOCAL WOMAN, RUNS A SMALL SHOP FROM HER HOME INVADIGERE VILLAGE, AN ACTIVITY ENABLED DUE TO THE TIME SAVED BY RUNNINGHER KITCHEN ON BIOGAS. THE COMMUNITY IN BAGEPALLI HAS PIONEERED THE USEOF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN ITS DAILY LIFE THANKS TO THE BIOGAS CLEANDEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM) PROJECT STARTED IN 2006.image THE 100 KWP STAND-ALONE SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PLANT ATTANGTSE, DURBUK BLOCK, LADAKH. LOCATED 14,500 FEET AMSL IN THE HIMALAYA,THE PLANT SUPPLIES ELECTRICITY TO A CLINIC, SCHOOL AND 347 HOUSES IN THISREMOTE LOCATION, FOR AROUND FIVE HOURS EACH DAY.© VIVEK M/GP© H. KATRAGADDA/GPtable 5.48: india: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-87.0243.0156.021.5-37.784.72.971.52021 - 2030-247.1950.2703.279.1-18.2589.39.0659.22031 - 2040-310.51,055.0744.586.4315.51,323.316.61,741.82041 - 2050-310.51,055.0744.567.5860.02,076.827.43,031.62011 - 2050-1,002.03,772.92,770.9254.51,119.74,074.155.95,504.12011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-25.094.369.36.428.0101.91.4137.65key results | INDIA - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS157

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKnon oecd asiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | NON OECD ASIA - DEMAND5non oecd asia: energy demand by sectorThe future development pathways for Non OECD Asia’s finalenergy demand are shown in Figure 5.109 for the Reference andthe Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario,total primary energy demand in Remaining Asia more thandoubles form the current 32,536 PJ/a to 73,869 PJ/a in 2050.In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, a much smaller 45%increase is expected, reaching 47,026 PJ/a.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand isexpected to increase disproportionately in Non OECD Asia (seeFigure 5.110). With the introduction of serious efficiencymeasures in the industry, residential and service sectors, however,an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricitydemand (final energy) of around 3,205 TWh/a in 2050.Compared to the Reference case, efficiency measures avoid thegeneration of 1,117 TWh/a or 30% in the industry, residentialand service sectors.Efficiency gains in the heating sector are also significant (seeFigure 5.112). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumptionequivalent to 3,495 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measuresby 2050. In the transport sector it is assumed under the Energy[R]evolution scenario that energy demand will rise from 4,887PJ/a in 2009 to 5,707 PJ/a by 2050.However this still saves 55% compared to the Referencescenario. By 2030 electricity will provide 15% of the transportsector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenarioincreasing to 37% by 2050.figure 5.109: non oecd asia: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)50,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT200920152020203020402050158

image A WOMAN PREPARING FOOD IN THE PHILIPPINES.image AMIDST SCORCHING HEAT, AN ELDERLY FISHERWOMAN GATHERS SHELLS INLAM TAKONG DAM, WHERE WATERS HAVE DRIED UP DUE TO PROLONGED DROUGHT.GREENPEACE LINKS RISING GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AND CLIMATE CHANGE TO THEONSET OF ONE OF THE WORST DROUGHTS TO HAVE STRUCK THAILAND,CAMBODIA,VIETNAM AND INDONESIA IN RECENT MEMORY. SEVERE WATERSHORTAGE AND DAMAGE TO AGRICULTURE HAS AFFECTED MILLIONS.© GP/KATE DAVISON© GP/SATAPORN THONGMAfigure 5.110: non oecd asia: development of electricitydemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050figure 5.112: non oecd asia: development of heatdemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)20,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20505key results | NON OECD ASIA - DEMAND‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.111: non oecd asia: developmentof the transport demand by sectorin the energy [r]evolution scenario14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONRAILDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROAD159

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKnon oecd asiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | NON OECD ASIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5non oecd asia: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market is characterisedby an increasing share of renewable electricity.By 2050, 96% ofthe electricity produced in Non OECD Asia will come fromrenewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PVand solar thermal power – will contribute 88% of electricitygeneration. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects animmediate market development with high annual growth ratesachieving a renewable electricity share of 36% already by 2020and 64% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach605 GW in 2030 and 1,619 GW by 2050, an enormous increase.Table 5.49 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in Non OECD Asia over time. Up to 2020hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growingmarket share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will becomplemented by electricity from photovoltaics, solar thermal(CSP), and ocean energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario willlead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources(photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 34% by 2030 and 54% by2050, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand sidemanagement (DSM) and storage capacity from the increasedshare of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integrationand power generation management.table 5.49: non oecd asia: renewable electricity generationcapacity under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]2009484833113300000055552020756964690512459040296240203010080117212107341119906401215060520401238817114537210721739101710272111,130205014696231371478131072457702950532751,619figure 5.113: non oecd asia: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050160

image GREENPEACE DONATES A SOLAR POWER SYSTEM TO A COASTAL VILLAGE INACEH, INDONESIA, ONE OF THE WORST HIT AREAS BY THE TSUNAMI IN DECEMBER2004. IN COOPERATION WITH UPLINK, A LOCAL DEVELOPMENT NGO, GREENPEACEOFFERED ITS EXPERTISE ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY ANDINSTALLED RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATORS FOR ONE OF THE BADLY HITVILLAGES BY THE TSUNAMI.image A WOMAN GATHERS FIREWOOD ON THE SHORES CLOSE TO THE WIND FARMOF ILOCOS NORTE, AROUND 500 KILOMETERS NORTH OF MANILA.© GP/SIMANJUNTAK© GP/RIOSnon oecd asia: future costsof electricity generationFigure 5.114 shows that the introduction of renewabletechnologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario significantlydecreases future costs of electricity generation in Non OECDAsia compared to the Reference scenario. Because of the lowerCO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costswill become economically favourable under the Energy[R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 7.2 cents/kWhbelow those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, on the other hand, uncheckedgrowth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost ofCO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising fromtoday’s $ 145 billion per year to more than $ 777 billion in2050. Figure 5.114 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenariohelps Non OECD Asia to stabilise energy costs and relieve theeconomic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency andshifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs forelectricity supply that are 14% lower than in the Referencescenario, including estimated costs for efficiency measures.figure 5.114: non oecd asia: total electricity supplycosts and specific electricity generation costs undertwo scenariosnon oecd asia: future investmentsin the power sectorIt would require $ 5,150 billion in investment for the Energy[R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investmentsfor replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 129 billion annually or $ 88 billion more than inthe Reference scenario ($ 1,645 billion).Under the Reference version, the levels of investment inconventional power plants add up to almost 47% whileapproximately 53% would be invested in renewable energy andcogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, however, Non OECD Asia would shift almost 97% ofthe entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would befocused mainly on CHP plants. The average annual investment inthe power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario betweentoday and 2050 would be approximately $ 129 billion.figure 5.115: non oecd asia: investment shares -reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario5key results | NON OECD ASIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONBn$/a8007006005004003002001000ct/kWh20181614121086420REF 2011 - 2050Total $ 1,645 billion2% CHP5% NUCLEAR51% RENEWABLES42% FOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])E[R] 2011 - 2050Total $ 5,150 billion3% FOSSIL & NUCLEAR5% CHP92% RENEWABLES161

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKnon oecd asiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | NON OECD ASIA - HEATINGnon oecd asia: heating supplyToday, renewables provide 50% of Non OECD Asia’s heatdemand, the main contribution coming from biomass. Dedicatedsupport instruments are required to ensure a dynamic futuredevelopment. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewablesprovide 55% of Non OECD Asia’s total heat demand in 2030and 86% in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures will restrict the future heat demandin 2030 to an increase of 40% compared to 52% in theReference scenario, in spite of improving living standards.• In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas as wellas geothermal energy and hydrogen from renewable sourcesare increasingly substituted for conventional fossil-firedheating systems.• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remainingconventional applications leads to a further reduction ofCO2 emissions.Table 5.50 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heating in Non OECD Asia over time. Up to2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growingmarket share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solarcollectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps willreduce the dependence on fossil fuels.table 5.50: non oecd asia: renewable heating capacitiesunder the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20095,1735,1734400005,1775,17720205,4894,930377340526005,5266,19120305,6914,748771,97801,314005,7698,04020406,2954,2671343,73952,72902376,43410,97320506,8764,0081905,03894,78403237,07614,154figure 5.116: non oecd asia: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050162

image MAJESTIC VIEW OF THE WIND FARM IN ILOCOS NORTE, AROUND 500 KILOMETRESNORTH OF MANILA. THE 25 MEGAWATT WIND FARM, OWNED AND OPERATED BY DANISHFIRM NORTHWIND, IS THE FIRST OF ITS KIND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA.image A MAN WORKING IN A RICE FIELD IN THE PHILIPPINES.© GP/RIOS© GP/KATE DAVISONnon oecd asia: future investmentsin the heat sectorIn the heat sector, the Energy [R]evolution scenario would requirealso a major revision of current investment strategies. Especiallysolar, geothermal and heat pump technologies need an enormousincrease in installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for theheat sector. Installed capacity for direct heating and heating plants(excluding district heat from CHP) need to be increased up toaround 1500 GW for solar thermal and up to 700 GW forgeothermal and heat pumps. Capacity of biomass use for heatsupply needs to remain a pillar of heat supply, however currentplants need to be replaced by new efficient technologies.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 2,459 billion to be invested in renewabledirect heating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 61 billion per year.table 5.51: non oecd asia: renewable heat generationcapacities under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20091,6971,6970011001,6991,69920201,8291,626041112140321,8401,91320301,8691,482090235810761,8922,22820401,8511,1220220401,10011351,8922,57720501,8348670376561,46122751,8922,9795key results | NON OECD ASIA - INVESTMENTfigure 5.117: non oecd asia: investments for renewable heat generation technologiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 20503% SOLAR32% SOLAR2% HEAT PUMPS38% GEOTHERMAL95% BIOMASSTotal $ 380 billionTotal $ 2,459 billion0% GEOTHERMAL25% HEAT PUMPS5% BIOMASS163

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKnon oecd asiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | NON OECD ASIA - EMPLOYMENT5non oecd asia: future employmentin the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in non OECD Asia at 2015 and 2020, and slightly fewer jobsat 2030.• There are 2 million energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario in 2015, and 1.7 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 1.9 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 1.7 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 1.4 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 1.5 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.118 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe Reference scenario drop by 8% by 2015, and then remain thesame until 2020. Jobs drop again to 22% below 2010 levelsby 2030.Strong growth in renewable energy leads to a small increase of7% in total energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario by 2015. Renewable energy jobs remain high until 2020,and then drop to 23% of energy jobs by 2030, with biomasshaving the greatest share (22%), followed by solar heating, wind,solar PV, hydro.figure 5.118: non oecd asia: employmentin the energy scenario under the referenceand energy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions2.52.01.51.00.502010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.52: non oecd asia: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs404537199001,860514466137211,714582451156641,71361538664481,4552384794.81,2601,9821734314.21,3171,9251132953.41,0191,431Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs230821251,339841,860206831251,1841161,714196801321,1561501,713141651291,0061151,4554921841251,116.8641,98255522715697891,92538520317366821,431164

image THE BATAAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT MAY FINALLY OPEN BUT THANKFULLYONLY AS A TOURIST ATTRACTION. ON JUNE 11, 2011.image WATER IS PUMPED FROM THE FLOODED INDUSTRIAL PARK IN BANGPA-INAYUTTHAYA, THAILAND. OVER SEVEN MAJOR INDUSTRIAL PARKS IN THAILAND ANDTHOUSANDS OF FACTORIES HAVE BEEN CLOSED IN THE CENTRAL THAI PROVINCE OFAYUTTHAYA AND NONTHABURI WITH MILLIONS OF TONS OF RICE DAMAGED.THAILAND IS EXPERIENCING THE WORST FLOODING IN OVER 50 YEARS WHICH HASAFFECTED MORE THAN NINE MILLION PEOPLE.© V. VILLAFRANCA/GP© A. PERAWONGMETHA/GPnon oecd asia: transportIn 2050, the car fleet in Non OECD Asia will be significantlylarger than today. Today, more medium to large-sized cars aredriven in Non OECD Asia with an unusually high annual mileage.With growing individual mobility, an increasing share of smallefficient cars is projected, with vehicle kilometres drivenresembling industrialised countries averages. More efficientpropulsion technologies, including hybrid-electric power trains,and lightweight construction, will help to limit the growth in totaltransport energy demand to a factor of 1.17, reaching 5,700PJ/a in 2050. As Non OECD Asia already has a large fleet ofelectric vehicles, this will grow to the point where almost 37% oftotal transport energy is covered by electricity.By 2030 electricity will provide 15% of the transport sector’stotal energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.Under both scenarios road transport volumes increasessignificantly. However, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario,the total energy demand for road transport increases from4,588 PJ/a in 2009 to 4,856 PJ/a in 2050, compared to 11,514PJ/a in the Reference case.table 5.53: non oecd asia: transport energy demandby mode under the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200958584,5884,5881141141271274,8874,887202082986,4395,4301921931601546,8745,8732030981238,1425,6232802582181688,7386,17320401071519,8525,16442535627216410,6555,835205011816711,5144,85670953632214812,6645,7075key results | NON OECD ASIA - TRANSPORTfigure 5.119: non oecd asia: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050165

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKnon oecd asiaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | NON OECD ASIA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5non oecd asia: development of CO2 emissionsWhilst the Non OECD Asia’s emissions of CO2 will increase by178% under the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario they will decrease from 1,514 million tonnes in 2009 to278 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will remainat around 1.4 tonnes through 2020 and decrease afterward to 0.2tonnes in 2050. In the long run efficiency gains and the increaseduse of renewable electricity in vehicles will also significantly reduceemissions in the transport sector. With a share of 26% of CO2emissions in 2050, the transport sector will be the largest energyrelated sources of emissions. By 2050, Non OECD Asia’s CO2emissions are 12% of 1990 levels.non oecd asia: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primaryenergy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario isshown in Figure 5.121. Compared to the Reference scenario,overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 36% in 2050.Around 81% of the remaining demand (including non energyconsumption) will be covered by renewable energy sources.The coal demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario will peak by2015 with 6,730 PJ/a compared to 5,684 PJ/a in 2009 anddecrease afterwards to 1,753 PJ/a by 2050. This is made possiblemainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables after 20rather than 40 years lifetime. This leads to an overall renewableprimary energy share of 46% in 2030 and 81% in 2050. Nuclearenergy remains on a very low level and is phased out just after 2045.figure 5.120: non oecd asia: development of CO2emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolutionscenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/a5,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople1,5001,2009006003000figure 5.121: non oecd asia: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)80,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0166REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image A STORM OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.image A BOY WASHES NEAR HITEC INDUSTRIAL PARK IN AYUTTHAYA, THAILANDDURING THE WORST FLOODING IN OVER 50 YEARS.© PAUL HILTON/GP© A. PERAWONGMETHA/GPtable 5.54: non oecd asia: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-89.1327.8238.72.9-75.777.35.19.62021 - 2030-158.5838.5680.06.5-10.7372.314.1382.32031 - 2040-146.61,353.91,207.316.1324.7829.720.41,190.92041 - 2050-196.71,576.01,379.223.61,139.11,272.626.22,461.62011 - 2050-590.94,096.13,505.249.21,377.62,551.965.84,044.52011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-14.8102.487.61.234.463.81.6101.15key results | NON OECD ASIA - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS167

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKchinaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | CHINA - DEMAND5china: energy demand by sectorThe future development pathways for China’s energy demand areshown in Figure 5.122 for the Reference and the Energy[R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, totalprimary energy demand in China increases by 89% from thecurrent 96,000 PJ/a to around 181,300 PJ/a in 2050. In theEnergy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demandincreases by 9% compared to current consumption and it isexpected by 2050 to reach 104,500 PJ/a.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in theindustrial, residential, and service sectors is expected to increasedisproportionately (see Figure 5.123). With the exploitation ofefficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can beavoided, leading to 10,040 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to theReference case, efficiency measures in industry and other sectorsavoid the generation of about 3,320 TWh/a or 29%. In contrast,electricity consumption in the transport sector will growsignificantly, as the Energy [R]evolution scenario introduceselectric trains and public transport as well as efficient electricvehicles faster than the Reference case. Fossil fuels for industrialprocess heat generation are also phased out more quickly andreplaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in theelectricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, finaldemand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (seeFigure 5.125). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumptionequivalent to 7200 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measuresby 2050.In the transport sector it is assumed under the Energy[R]evolution scenario that energy demand will increaseconsiderably, from 6,816 PJ/a in 2009 to 12,600 PJ/a by 2050.However this still saves 56% compared to the Referencescenario. By 2030 electricity will provide 13% of the transportsector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenarioincreasing to 55% by 2050.figure 5.122: china: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)110,000100,00090,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT200920152020203020402050168

image WANG WAN YI, AGE 76, AND LINANG JUN QIN, AGE 72, EAT NOODLES IN THEIRONE ROOM HOME CARVED OUT OF THE SANDSTONE, A TYPICAL DWELLING FORLOCAL PEOPLE IN THE REGION. DROUGHT IS ONE OF THE MOST HARMFUL NATURALHAZARDS IN NORTHWEST CHINA. CLIMATE CHANGE HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ONCHINA’S ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY.image image THE BLADES OF A WINDMILL SIT ON THE GROUND WAITING FORINSTALLATION AT GUAZHOU WIND FARM NEAR YUMEN IN GANSU PROVINCE.© GP/JOHN NOVIS© GP/MARKEL REDONDOfigure 5.123: china: development of electricity demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050figure 5.125: china: development of heat demandby sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20505key results | CHINA - DEMAND‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.124: china: development of the transportdemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROADRAIL169

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKchinaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | CHINA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5china: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market is characterisedby a dynamically growing renewable energy market and anincreasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate forthe phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossilfuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050,92% of the electricity produced in China will come from renewableenergy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermalpower and PV – will contribute 60% of electricity generation. TheEnergy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate marketdevelopment with high annual growth rates achieving a renewableelectricity share of 27% already by 2020 and 43% by 2030. Theinstalled capacity of renewables will reach 1,298 GW in 2030 and3,076 GW by 2050, an enormous increase.Table 5.55 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in China over time. Up to 2020 hydro andwind will remain the main contributors of the growing marketshare. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will becomplemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics andsolar thermal (CSP) energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenariowill lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources(photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 19% by 2030 and 48% by2050, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand sidemanagement (DSM) and storage capacity e.g. from theincreasing share of electric vehicles will be used for a better gridintegration and power generation management.table 5.55: china: renewable electricity generationcapacity under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]200919719711131300000000212212202032029418311502340222831420151168520303703413251222517122302212138096571,298204040239748812668451694554222030287642,1662050433433631123051,139213362803329501618683,076figure 5.126: china: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050170

image A WORKER ENTERS A TURBINE TOWER FOR MAINTENANCE AT DABANCHENGWIND FARM. CHINA’S BEST WIND RESOURCES ARE MADE POSSIBLE BY THENATURAL BREACH IN TIANSHAN (TIAN MOUNTAIN).image WOMEN WEAR MASKS AS THEY RIDE BIKES TO WORK IN THE POLLUTEDTOWN OF LINFEN. LINFEN, A CITY OF ABOUT 4.3 MILLION, IS ONE OF THE MOSTPOLLUTED CITIES IN THE WORLD. CHINA’S INCREASINGLY POLLUTEDENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY A RESULT OF THE COUNTRY’S RAPID DEVELOPMENTAND CONSEQUENTLY A LARGE INCREASE IN PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION,WHICH IS ALMOST ENTIRELY PRODUCED BY BURNING COAL.© GP/HU WEI© N. BEHRING-CHISHOLM/GPchina: future costs of electricity generationFigure 5.127 shows that the introduction of renewabletechnologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightlyincreases the costs of electricity generation in China compared tothe Reference scenario. However, this difference will be less than0.4 cent/kWh up to 2020, if the price pathway for fossil fuelsdefined in Chapter 4 is applied. Because of the lower CO2intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs willbecome economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 6.3 cents/kWh below thosein the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, by contrast, unchecked growth indemand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising fromtoday’s $ 366 billion per year to more than $ 2,096 billion in2050. Figure 5.127 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenarionot only complies with China’s CO2 reduction targets but alsohelps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency andshifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs forelectricity supply that are 24% lower than in the Referencescenario, including estimated costs for efficiency measures.in the Reference scenario ($ 5,658 billion). Under the Referenceversion, the levels of investment in conventional power plants addup to almost 49% while approximately 51% would be invested inrenewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, China wouldshift almost 95% of the entire investment towards renewablesand cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of powersector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants. Theaverage annual investment in the power sector under the Energy[R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would beapproximately $ 252 billion.Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, savings in the Energy[R]evolution scenario reach a total of $ 9,870 billion up to 2050,or $ 247 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings thereforewould cover almost 2 times the total additional investmentscompared to the Reference scenario. These renewable energysources would then go on to produce electricity without anyfurther fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gaswill continue to be a burden on national economies.5key results | CHINA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONfigure 5.127: china: total electricity supply costsand specific electricity generation costs undertwo scenariosfigure 5.128: china: investment shares - referencescenario versus energy [r]evolution scenarioBn$/a2,2002,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000ct/kWh1614121086420REF 2011 - 2050Total $ 5,658 billion6% CHP14% NUCLEAR45% RENEWABLES35% FOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])E[R] 2011 - 20505% FOSSIL & NUCLEAR14% CHPchina: future investments in the power sectorTotal $ 10,090 billionIt would require $ 10,090 billion in investment for the Energy[R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investmentsfor replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 252 billion annually or $ 111 billion more than81% RENEWABLES171

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKchinaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | CHINA - HEATINGchina: heating supplyToday, renewables provide 23% of China’s energy demand forheat supply, the main contribution coming from biomass.Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamicfuture development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario,renewables provide 35% of China’s total heat demand in 2030and 86% in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures will restrict the future energydemand for heat supply in 2030 to an increase of 15%compared to 29% in the Reference scenario, in spite ofimproving living standards.• In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas as wellas geothermal energy are increasingly substituted forconventional fossil-fired heating systems.• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remainingconventional applications leads to a further reduction ofCO2 emissions.Table 5.56 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heating in China over time. Up to 2020, biomasswill remain the main contributor of the growing market share.After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and agrowing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce thedependence on fossil fuels.table 5.56: china: renewable heating capacities under thereference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioIN GWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20096,8336,833301301104104007,2387,23820206,2468,0545041,199181737006,9319,99120304,9537,9846312,2872372,259005,82112,53020403,9168,6377556,560288 3366,125 10,42401024,95921,42420503,5977,9498427,67605434,77526,592figure 5.129: china: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050172

image A MAINTENANCE ENGINEER INSPECTS A WIND TURBINE AT THE NAN WINDFARM IN NAN’AO. GUANGDONG PROVINCE HAS ONE OF THE BEST WIND RESOURCES INCHINA AND IS ALREADY HOME TO SEVERAL INDUSTRIAL SCALE WIND FARMS. MASSIVEINVESTMENT IN WIND POWER WILL HELP CHINA OVERCOME ITS RELIANCE ONCLIMATE DESTROYING FOSSIL FUEL POWER AND SOLVE ITS ENERGY SUPPLY PROBLEM.image image A LOCAL TIBETAN WOMAN WHO HAS FIVE CHILDREN AND RUNS ABUSY GUEST HOUSE IN THE VILLAGE OF ZHANG ZONG USES SOLAR PANELS TOSUPPLY ENERGY FOR HER BUSINESS.© GP/XUAN CANXIONG© GP/JOHN NOVISchina: future investments in the heat sectorIn the heat sector, the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire also a major revision of current investment strategies.Especially solar, geothermal and heat pump technologies need anenormous increase in installations, if these potentials are to betapped for the heat sector. Installed capacity for direct heating(excluding district heating and CHP) need to be increased up toaround 2,300 GW for solar thermal and up to 1,400 GW forgeothermal and heat pumps. Capacity of biomass use for heatsupply needs to remain a pillar of heat supply, however currentplants need to be replaced by new efficient technologies.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 4,950 billion to be invested in renewabledirect heating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 124 billion per year.table 5.57: china: renewable heat generation capacitiesunder the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20092,9262,9260010210219193,0473,04720202,4762,881012171363321102,6793,36620301,8872,499078214710412322,1423,51920401,4512,25803482562,064494101,7555,07920501,2951,72907752852,296546221,6345,4225key results | CHINA - INVESTMENTfigure 5.130: china: investments for renewable heat generation technologiesunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 205012% BIOMASS31% SOLAR25% SOLAR33% GEOTHERMALTotal $ 206 billionTotal $ 4,950 billion0% GEOTHERMAL63% HEAT PUMPS29% HEAT PUMPS7% BIOMASS173

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKchinaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | CHINA - EMPLOYMENT5china: future employment in the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in China at every stage of the projection, despite signficantreductions in fossil fuel jobs in both scenarios.• There are 6 million energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario in 2015, and 5.5 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 4.7 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 4.2 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 3.2 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 2.8 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.131 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe coal sector decline sharply in both scenarios, reflectingsignificant increases in productivity in China’s coal industry.Strong growth in the renewable sector compensates for some ofthe losses in the coal industry, so jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario are generally 0.5 million higher than jobs in theReference scenario. Renewable energy accounts for 47% ofenergy jobs by 2030.figure 5.131: china: employment in the energy scenariounder the reference and energy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions9.08.07.06.05.04.03.03.01.002010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.58: china: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs5,9692232312,0288,4513,9722231851,1165,4963,0102131019084,2331,894302535122,7623,618250402,1306,0382,725263181,7354,7411,42826291,5363,235Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs1,7259304785,318-8,4518683945043,730-5,4965712805392,842-4,2333391594291,836-2,7628837024953,957.1-6,0385144445543,229-4,7414993904591,888-3,235174

image A WOMAN WASHES UP DISHES USING HOT WATER PROVIDED BY A SOLARTHERMAL WATER HEATER ON THE ROOF OF HER APARTMENT BLOCK. THE CITY OFDEZHOU IS LEADING THE WAY IN ADOPTING SOLAR ENERGY AND HAS BECOMEKNOWN AS THE SOLAR VALLEY OF CHINA.image ZHAO PICHENGS HOME IN SHUIMOTOU VILLAGE HAS BEEN RUINED BY THESHENTOU NUMBER 2 POWER PLANT IN SHUOZHOU, SHANXI PROVINCE. CONTINUEDLEAKAGE FROM THE PLANTS COAL ASH POND HAS RAISED GROUNDWATER LEVELS,FLOODING CELLARS IN THE VILLAGE. EXCESS WATER HAS ALSO DAMAGED HOUSINGFOUNDATIONS, CAUSING THE BUILDINGS TO DEVELOP CRACKS OR EVEN COLLAPSE.AFTER A LARGE PART OF HIS ROOF FELL OFF, ZHAO PICHENG AND HIS FAMILY HADNO CHOICE BUT TO MOVE.© GP/ALEX HOFFORD© ZHAO GANG/GPchina: transportIn 2050, the car fleet in China will be 10 times larger than today.Today, more medium to large-sized cars are driven in China withan unusually high annual mileage. With growing individualmobility, an increasing share of small efficient cars is projected,with vehicle kilometres driven resembling industrialised countriesaverages. More efficient propulsion technologies, including hybridelectricpower trains, and lightweight construction, will help tolimit the growth in total transport energy demand to a factor of2, reaching 12,600 PJ/a in 2050. As China already has a largefleet of electric vehicles, this will grow to the point where almost55% of total transport energy is covered by electricity.By 2030 electricity will provide 13% of the transport sector’stotal energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.Under both scenarios road transport volumes increasessignificantly. However, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario,the toal energy demand for road transport increases from 5,224PJ/a in 2009 to 7,794 PJ/a in 2050, compared to about 22,400PJ/a in the Reference case.table 5.59: china: transport energy demand by mode underthe reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20095415415,2245,2244884885585586,8116,811202068175211,5509,6071,02286277977514,03211,996203080493216,75010,9081,5481,26898594920,08714,05820409361,06219,8838,7682,3101,8461,1671,08524,29612,76020501,0561,11822,3787,7943,7092,5601,3701,13728,51212,6095key results | CHINA - TRANSPORTfigure 5.132: china: final energy consumption for transport under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050175

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKchinaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | CHINA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5china: development of CO2 emissionsWhilst China’s emissions of CO2 will increase by 82% under theReference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario theywill decrease from 6,880 million tonnes in 2009 to 860 milliontonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will increase from5.1 tonnes to 6.1 tonnes in 2030 and decrease afterward to 0.6tonnes in 2050. In the long run efficiency gains and the increaseduse of renewable electricity in vehicles will also significantlyreduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 32% ofCO2 emissions in 2050, the transport sector will be the largestenergy related source of emissions. By 2050, China’s CO2emissions are 38% of 1990 levels.china: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primaryenergy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario isshown in Figure 5.134. Compared to the Reference scenario,overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 42% in 2050.Around 82% of the remaining demand (including non energyconsumption) will be covered by renewable energy sources.The coal demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario will peakby 2020 with 77,700 PJ/a compared to 65,400 PJ/a in 2009and decrease afterwards to 4,400 PJ/a by 2050. This is madepossible mainly by replacement of coal power plants withrenewables after 20 rather than 40 years lifetime. This leads toan overall renewable primary energy share of 27% in 2030 and82% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2045.figure 5.133: china: development of CO2 emissionsby sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)14,00012,00010,000Mill t/a8,0006,0004,0002,0000 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople1,4001,2001,000800600400200figure 5.134: china: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 0176REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image SOLAR POWERED PHOTO-VOLTAIC (PV) CELLS ARE ASSEMBLED BY WORKERS ATA FACTORY OWNED BY THE HIMIN GROUP, THE WORLDS LARGEST MANUFACTURER OFSOLAR THERMAL WATER HEATERS. THE CITY OF DEZHOU IS LEADING THE WAY INADOPTING SOLAR ENERGY AND HAS BECOME KNOWN AS THE SOLAR VALLEY OF CHINA.image DAFENG POWER STATION IS CHINA’S LARGEST SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC-WINDHYBRID POWER STATION, WITH 220MW OF GRID-CONNECTED CAPACITY, OF WHICH20MW IS SOLAR PV. LOCATED IN YANCHENG, JIANGSU PROVINCE, IT BEGANOPERATION ON DECEMBER 31, 2010 AND HAS 1,100 ANNUAL UTILIZATION HOURS.EVERY YEAR IT CAN GENERATE 23 MILLION KW-H OF ELECTRICITY, ALLOWING IT TOSAVE 7,000 TONS OF COAL AND 18,600 TONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS.© GP/ALEX HOFFORD© GP/ZHIYONG FUtable 5.60: china: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-42157415325-3823402212021 - 2030-5341,29876356-711,08901,0742031 - 2040-5551,8691,31355742,92103,0492041 - 2050-5551,8691,313386194,86805,5252011 - 2050-2,0916,5234,4321745839,11209,8692011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-521631114.41522802475key results | CHINA - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS177

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd asia oceaniaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - DEMAND5oecd asia oceania: energy demand by sectorThe future development pathways for OECD Asia Oceania’senergy demand are shown in Figure 5.135 for the Reference andthe Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario,total primary energy demand in OECD Asia Oceania increases by4% from the current 36,040 PJ/a to 37,400 PJ/a in 2050. Theenergy demand in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenariodecreases by 37% compared to current consumption and it isexpected by 2050 to reach 22,860 PJ/a.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in theindustry as well as in the residential, and service sectors isexpected to decrease after 2020 (see Figure 5.136). Because ofthe growing use of electric vehicles however, electricity demandremains stable at 1,750 TWh/a in 2050, still 19% below theReference case.Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in theelectricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, finaldemand for heat supply can eventually even be reducedsignificantly (see Figure 5.138). Compared to the Referencescenario, consumption equivalent to 1,860 PJ/a is avoidedthrough efficiency measures by 2050. As a result of energyrelatedrenovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, aswell as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passivehouses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort andenergy services will be accompanied by a much lower futureenergy demand.figure 5.135: oecd asia oceania: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)21,00018,00015,00012,0009,0006,0003,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050178

image PORTLAND, IN THE STATE OF VICTORIA, WAS THE FIRST AUSTRALIAN COUNCILTO RECEIVE A DEVELOPMENT APPLICATION FOR WIND TURBINES AND NOW HASENOUGH IN THE SHIRE TO PROVIDE ENERGY FOR SEVERAL LOCAL TOWNS COMBINED.image THE FORTUNES OF THE TOWN OF INNAMINCKA ARE ABOUT TO CHANGE,BECAUSE THEY ARE SITTING ON THE EDGE OF THE COOPER BASIN. IT MAY BESIZZLING ABOVE GROUND, BUT THE ROCKS FIVE KILOMETRES BELOW INNAMINCKAARE SUPER-HEATED, PROVIDING A NEW AND CLEAN SOURCE OF ENERGY. RESIDENTLEON, THE PUBLICAN SAYS, EVERYONE IN TOWN IS EXCITED, EVERYONE HAS TOLIVE NEXT TO A NOISY GENERATOR. AND ANYTHING YOU DO OUT HERE ISEXPENSIVE, IT ALL HAS TO BE FREIGHTED IN. ANYWHERE YOU CAN SAVE SOMEMONEY IS GREAT. UP UNTIL NOW, THE PUB HAS BEEN USING BETWEEN AROUND3,000 LITRES OF DIESEL FUEL EVERY WEEK. WHEN THE NEW GENERATOR ISSWITCHED ON THAT SHOULD DROP TO ZERO.© GP/DEAN SEWELL© GP/DEAN SEWELLfigure 5.136: oecd asia oceania: developmentof electricity demand by sector inthe energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050figure 5.138: oecd asia oceania: development of heatdemand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 20505key results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - DEMAND‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYTRANSPORT‘EFFICIENCY’OTHER SECTORS• INDUSTRYfigure 5.137: oecd asia oceania: developmentof the transport demand by sector inthe energy [r]evolution scenario6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’DOMESTIC NAVIGATIONDOMESTIC AVIATION• ROADRAIL179

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd asia oceaniaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION5oecd asia oceania: electricity generationThe development of the electricity supply market is charaterisedby a dynamically growing renewable energy market. This willcompensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce thenumber of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for gridstabilisation. By 2050, 93% of the electricity produced in OECDAsia Oceania will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’renewables – mainly wind, PV and geothermal energy – willcontribute 76% of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolutionscenario projects an immediate market development with highannual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of31% already by 2020 and 56% by 2030. The installed capacityof renewables will reach 524 GW in 2030 and 856 GW by 2050.Table 5.61 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in OECD Asia Oceania over time. Up to2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of thegrowing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of windwill be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaicssolar thermal (CSP) and ocean energy. The Energy [R]evolutionscenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generationsources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 36% by 2030,therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management(DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electricvehicles will be used for a better grid integration and powergeneration management.table 5.61: oecd asia oceania: renewable electricitygeneration capacity under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWHydroBiomassWindGeothermalPVCSPOcean energyTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]2009676755441133000080802020707561114752997131101610326820307279920241712171618631813412752420407279103233221424212795252591487182050708212443723953125350631379158856figure 5.139: oecd asia oceania: electricity generation structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)2,5002,0001,5001,000500TWh/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]OCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMALGEOTHERMALBIOMASSPVWINDHYDRONUCLEARDIESELOILNATURAL GAS• LIGNITECOAL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050180

image SOLAR PANELS ON CONISTON STATION, NORTH WEST OF ALICE SPRINGS,NORTHERN TERRITORY.image THE “CITIZENS’ WINDMILL” IN AOMORI, NORTHERN JAPAN. PUBLIC GROUPS,SUCH AS CO-OPERATIVES, ARE BUILDING AND RUNNING LARGE-SCALE WINDTURBINES IN SEVERAL CITIES AND TOWNS ACROSS JAPAN.© GP/SOLNESS© GP/NAOMI TOYODAoecd asia oceania: future costsof electricity generationFigure 5.140 shows that the introduction of renewabletechnologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightlyincreases the costs of electricity generation in OECD AsiaOceania compared to the Reference scenario. This difference willbe less than $ 2.3 cent/kWh up to 2030, however. Because of thelower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generationcosts will become economically favourable under the Energy[R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 7.2 cents/kWhbelow those in the Reference version.Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, anincrease in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result intotal electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 168 billion peryear to more than $ 436 billion in 2050. Figure 5.140 shows thatthe Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with OECD AsiaOceania’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energycosts. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply torenewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are17% lower in 2050 than in the Reference scenario.figure 5.140: oecd asia oceania: total electricity supplycosts and specific electricity generation costsunder two scenarios$ 36 billion annually more than in the Reference scenario($ 1,475 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels ofinvestment in conventional power plants add up to almost 67%while approximately 33% would be invested in renewable energyand cogeneration (CHP) until 2050.Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, OECD AsiaOceania would shift almost 90% of the entire investment towardsrenewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share ofpower sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants.The average annual investment in the power sector under theEnergy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would beapproximately $ 73 billion.Because renewable energy except biomasss has no fuel costs, thefuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reached atotal of $ 1,320 billion up to 2050, or $ 33 billion per year. Thetotal fuel cost savings therefore would cover 90% of the totaladditional investments compared to the Reference scenario. Theserenewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricitywithout any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs forcoal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.figure 5.141: oecd asia oceania: investment shares -reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario5key results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONBn$/a5004504003503002502001501005002009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050ct/kWh181614121086420REF 2011 - 2050Total $ 1,475 billion3% CHP30% RENEWABLES26% FOSSIL41% NUCLEARSPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])oecd asia oceania: future investmentsin the power sectorIt would require $ 2,930 billion in investment in the power sectorfor the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (includinginvestments for replacement after the economic lifetime of theplants) - approximately $ 1,450 billion orE[R] 2011 - 2050Total $ 2,930 billion10% FOSSIL10% CHP80% RENEWABLES181

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd asia oceaniaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIA5key results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - HEATINGoecd asia oceania: heating supplyRenewables currently provide 6% of OECD Asia Oceania’s energydemand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from theuse of biomass. The lack of district heating networks is a severestructural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal andsolar thermal energy. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario,renewables provide 47% of OECD Asia Oceania’s total heatdemand in 2030 and 90% in 2050.• Energy efficiency measures can decrease the current demandfor heat supply by 13%, in spite of improving living standards.• For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well asgeothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossilfuel-fired systems.• The introduction of strict efficiency measures e.g. via strictbuilding standards and ambitious support programms forrenewable heating systems are needed to achieve economies ofscale within the next 5 to 10 years.table 5.62: oecd asia oceania: renewable heatingcapacities under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassSolarcollectorsGeothermalHydrogenTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]2009338338747429290044044020203968455732334354044861,52620304731,46996880429530346113,33620405391,7451211,272541,39801087144,52320505921,8081381,482691,80602977985,393Table 5.62 shows the development of the different renewabletechnologies for heating in OECD Asia Oceania over time. Up to2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growingmarket share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solarcollectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps willreduce the dependence on fossil fuels.figure 5.142: oecd asia oceania: heat supply structure under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENGEOTHERMALSOLAR• BIOMASSFOSSIL2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050182

image GEOTHERMAL POWER STATION, NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.image WIND FARM LOOKING OVER THE OCEAN AT CAPE JERVIS, SOUTH AUSTRALIA.© J. GOUGH/DREAMSTIME© B. GOODE/DREAMSTIMEoecd asia oceania: future investmentsin the heat sectorAlso in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario wouldrequire a major revision of current investment strategies inheating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar andgeothermal and heat pump technologies need enourmous increasein installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heatsector. Installed capacity for need to increase by the factor of 20for solar thermal and even by the factor of 120 for geothermaland heat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies, which arealready rather wide spread still need to increase by the factor of5 and will remain a main pillar of heat supply.Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from lowtech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to verysophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermaldistrict heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can onlyroughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario intotal requires around $ 1,563 billion to be invested in renewableheating technologies until 2050 (including investments forreplacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 39 billion per year.table 5.63: oecd asia oceania: renewable heat generationcapacities under the reference scenario andthe energy [r]evolution scenario IN GWBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalHeat pumpsTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20094646002323447474202053121071810044575274203062201044302574105966062040702180653835851451127862050752090824342151631238755key results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - INVESTMENTfigure 5.143: asia oceania: development of investments for renewable heat generation technologies under two scenariosREF 2011 - 2050E[R] 2011 - 205038% SOLAR15% GEOTHERMAL38% SOLARTotal 114 billion $54% BIOMASS0% GEOTHERMALTotal 1,563 billion $17% BIOMASS8% HEAT PUMPS30% HEAT PUMPS183

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd asia oceaniaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - EMPLOYMENT5oecd asia oceania: future employmentin the energy sectorThe Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sectorjobs in OECD Asia-Oceania at every stage of the projection.• There are 0.5 million energy sector jobs in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario in 2015, and 0.3 millionin the Reference scenario.• In 2020, there are 0.5 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, and 0.3 million in the Reference scenario.• In 2030, there are 0.5 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and 0.3 million in the Reference scenario.Figure 5.144 shows the change in job numbers under bothscenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs inthe Reference scenario remain quite stable, increasing by 11% by2020, and then declining to just above 2010 levels by 2030.Exceptionally strong growth in renewable energy leads to anincrease of 80% in total energy sector jobs in the Energy[R]evolution scenario by 2015. Renewable energy jobs remainhigh, and account for 77% of energy jobs by 2030, with biomasshaving the greatest share (27%), followed by solar PV, wind,hydro, and solar heating.figure 5.144: oecd asia oceania: employmentin the energy scenario under the referenceand energy [r]evolution scenariosDirect jobs - millions0.60.50.40.30.20.102010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030REFERENCEGEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMPSOLAR HEATOCEAN ENERGYSOLAR THERMAL POWERGEOTHERMAL POWER• PVENERGY[R]EVOLUTIONWINDHYDROBIOMASSNUCLEARGAS, OIL & DIESEL• COALtable 5.64: oecd asia oceania: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS20102015REFERENCE2020 20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal Jobs77643875255627745742587377528028271773480262476449298458325045372500214544367477Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal Jobs56218194225543138910942584714941216282168103119162621856489118.02458201851011120.3500159631241290.3477184

image A GENERAL VIEW OF WATARI. A GREENPEACE RADIATION MONITORING TEAMHAS BEEN CHECKING RADIATION LEVELS AT MANY POINTS IN THE WATARI AREA,APPROXIMATELY 60KM FROM THE FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI NUCLEAR PLANT.GREENPEACE IS CHECKING RADIATION LEVELS AROUND FUKUSHIMA CITY NINEMONTHS AFTER THE TRIPLE NUCLEAR MELTDOWN TO DOCUMENT THE HEALTHRISKS LOCAL COMMUNITIES ARE FACING.image WIND TURBINES IN JEJU ISLAND.© NORIKO HAYASHI/GP© PAUL HILTON/GPoecd asia oceania: transportIn the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy[R]evolution scenario that an energy demand reduction of1,540 PJ/a can be achieved by 2050, saving 35% compared tothe Reference scenario. Energy demand will therefore decreasebetween 2009 and 2050 by 53% to 2,850 PJ/a (includingenergy for pipeline transport). This reduction can be achieved bythe introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting thetransport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobilityrelatedbehaviour patterns. Implementing a mix of increasedpublic transport as attractive alternatives to individual cars, thecar stock is growing slower and annual person kilometres arelower than in the Reference scenario.A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentivestogether with a significant shift in propulsion technology towardselectrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometrestravelled by 0.25% per year leads to significant energy savings.In 2030, electricity will provide 17% of the transport sector’stotal energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050the share will be 50%.table 5.65: oecd asia oceania: transport energy demandby mode under the reference scenario and the energy[r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/ARailRoadDomesticaviationDomesticnavigationTotalREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]20091501505,4185,4182542542032036,0256,02520201401604,9284,5093142782131915,5965,13720301361664,5173,6423572582201745,2304,23920401311624,0932,8773882442281594,8403,44120501191543,6542,3233782252331414,3842,8435key results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - TRANSPORTfigure 5.145: oecd asia oceania: final energy consumption for transportunder the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000PJ/a 0REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]‘EFFICIENCY’HYDROGENELECTRICITYBIOFUELS•NATURAL GASOIL PRODUCTS2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050185

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd asia oceaniaGLOBAL SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICAMIDDLE EASTEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIANON OECD ASIACHINAOECD ASIA OCEANIAkey results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION5oecd asia oceania: development of CO2 emissionsWhile CO2 emissions in OECD Asia Oceania will decrease by 11%in the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenariothey will decrease from 2,042 million tonnes in 2009 to 164 milliontonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 10.2tonnes to 5.8 tonnes in 2030 and 0.9 tonne in 2050. In spite of thephasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissionswill decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gainsand the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will evenreduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 31% ofCO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop below transportas the largest sources of emissions. By 2050, OECD Asia Oceania’sCO2 emissions are 10% of 1990 levels.oecd asia oceania: primary energy consumptionTaking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resultingprimary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario isshown in Figure 5.147. Compared to the Reference scenario, overallprimary energy demand will be reduced by 39% in 2050.The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 10 to15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenariopublished in 2010. This is made possible mainly by replacement ofcoal power plants with renewables and a faster introduction of veryefficient electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace oilcombustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable primaryenergy share of 39% in 2030 and 79% in 2050. Nuclear energy isphased out just after 2030.figure 5.146: oecd asia oceania: development of CO2emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolutionscenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)Mill t/a2,5002,0001,5001,0005000REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050POPULATION DEVELOPMENTSAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLESOTHER SECTORSINDUSTRY• TRANSPORTPOWER GENERATIONMillionpeople220200180160140120100806040200figure 5.147: oecd asia oceania: primary energy consumption under the reference scenarioand the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)40,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 0186REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050‘EFFICIENCY’OCEAN ENERGYGEOTHERMALSOLARBIOMASSWINDHYDRONATURAL GASOIL• COALNUCLEAR

image A YOUNG GIRL RECEIVES FOOD AT YONEZAWA GYMNASIUM WHICH IS NOWPROVIDING A SHELTER FOR 504 PEOPLE WHO EITHER LOST THEIR HOMES BY THETSUNAMI OR LIVE NEAR FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR POWER STATION. FOR THOSE WHOLOST THEIR HOMES, OR HAVE BEEN EVACUATED DUE TO RADIATION FEARS, THEFUTURE IS UNCERTAIN.image TATSUKO OGAWARA HAS BEEN AN ORGANIC FARMER NEAR TAMURA CITY,40KM FROM THE FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI NUCLEAR PLANT, FOR 30 YEARS. SHE SAYSTHAT SHE IS AFRAID FOR HER CHILDREN’S FUTURE, AND FEELS ASHAMED THATSHE DIDNT TAKE ACTION AGAINST THE NUCLEAR POWER STATION BEFORE IT WASTOO LATE. SHE NO LONGER KNOWS IF SHE CAN CONTINUE AS A FARMER, AS THESOIL IN THE AREA MAY BE CONTAMINATED.© CHRISTIAN ijLUND/GP© CHRISTIAN ijLUND/GPtable 5.66: oecd asia oceania: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savingsunder the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenarioINVESTMENT COSTS$DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REFConventional (fossil & nuclear) billion $Renewablesbillion $Totalbillion $CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGSSAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REFFuel oilbillion $/aGasbillion $/aHard coalbillion $/aLignitebillion $/aTotalbillion $/a2011 - 2020-170.4501.5331.1-18.0-210.345.85.3-177.32021 - 2030-268.2470.7202.522.0-111.6177.512.4100.32031 - 2040-153.7565.1411.466.980.7288.711.2447.52041 - 2050-153.7565.1411.472.9459.6404.410.7947.62011 - 2050-703.52,154.41,450.8143.8218.3916.439.61,318.12011 - 2050AVERAGEPER ANNUM-17.653.936.33.65.522.91.033.05key results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS187

employment projections6METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONSEMPLOYMENT FACTORSREGIONAL ADJUSTMENTSFOSSIL FUELSAND NUCLEAR ENERGYEMPLOYMENT IN RENEWABLEENERGY TECHNOLOGIES“economy andecology goeshand in hand withnew employment.”© DIGITAL GLOBEimage SAND DUNES NEAR THE TOWN OF SAHMAH, OMAN.188

image THE DABANCHENG WIND POWER ALONG THEURUMQI-TURPAN HIGHWAY, XINJIANG PROVINCE,CHINA. HOME TO ONE OF ASIA’S BIGGEST WINDFARMS AND A PIONEER IN THE INDUSTRY XINJIANG’SDABANCHENG IS CURRENTLY ONE OF THE LARGESTWIND FARMS IN CHINA, WITH 100 MEGAWATTS OFINSTALLED POWER GENERATING CAPACITY.© GP/SIMON LIM6.1 methodology and assumptionsThe Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University ofTechnology, Sydney modelled the effects of the Referencescenario and Energy [R]evolution Scenario on jobs in the energysector. This section provides a simplified overview of how thecalculations were performed. A detailed methodology is alsoavailable. 68 Chapters 2 and 3 contain all the data on how thescenarios were developed. The calculations were made usingconservative assumptions wherever possible. The main inputs tothe calculations are:For each scenario, namely the Reference (business as usual) andEnergy [R]evolution scenario:• The amount of electrical and heating capacity that will beinstalled each year for each technology,• The primary energy demand for coal, gas, and biomass fuels inthe electricity and heating sectors.• The amount of electricity generated per year from nuclear, oil,and diesel.For each technology:• ‘Employment factors’, or the number of jobs per unit ofcapacity, separated into manufacturing, construction, operationand maintenance, and per unit of primary energy for fuel supply.• For the 2020 and 2030 calculations, a ‘decline factor’ for eachtechnology which reduces the employment factors by a certainpercentage per year. This reflects the fact that employment perunit falls as technology prices fall.For each region:• The percentage of local manufacturing and domestic fuelproduction in each region, in order to calculate the proportion ofmanufacturing and fuel production jobs which occur in the region.• The percentage of world trade which originates in each region forcoal and gas fuels, and renewable energy traded components.• A “regional job multiplier”, which indicates how labourintensiveeconomic activity is in that region compared to theOECD. This is used to adjust OECD employment factors wherelocal data is not available.The electrical capacity increase and energy use figures from eachscenario are multiplied by the employment factors for each of thetechnologies, and then adjusted for regional labour intensity andthe proportion of fuel or manufacturing which occurs locally. Thecalculation is summarised in the Table 6.1.A range of data sources are used for the model inputs, including theInternational Energy Agency, US Energy InformationAdministration, US National Renewable Energy Laboratory,International Labour Organisation, industry associations for wind,geothermal, solar, nuclear and gas, census data from Australia,Canada, and India, academic literature, and the ISF’s own research.These calculations only take into account direct employment, forexample the construction team needed to build a new wind farm.They do not cover indirect employment, for example the extraservices provided in a town to accommodate construction teams.The calculations do not include jobs in energy efficiency, althoughthese are likely to be substantial, as the Energy [R]evolutionleads to a 40% drop in primary energy demand overall.6future employment | METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONStable 6.1: methodology overviewMANUFACTURING(FOR LOCAL USE)MANUFACTURING(FOR EXPORT)CONSTRUCTIONOPERATION &=MAINTENANCEFUEL SUPPLY=(NUCLEAR)FUEL SUPPLY=(COAL, GAS & BIOMASS)===MW INSTALLEDPER YEAR IN REGIONMW EXPORTEDPER YEARMW INSTALLEDPER YEARCUMULATIVECAPACITYELECTRICITYGENERATIONPRIMARY ENERGYDEMAND + EXPORTS××××××MANUFACTURINGEMPLOYMENT FACTORMANUFACTURINGEMPLOYMENT FACTORCONSTRUCTIONEMPLOYMENT FACTORO&MEMPLOYMENT FACTORFUEL EMPLOYMENTFACTORFUEL EMPLOYMENTFACTOR (ALWAYSREGIONAL FOR COAL)××××××REGIONAL JOBMULTIPLIERREGIONAL JOBMULTIPLIERREGIONAL JOBMULTIPLIERREGIONAL JOBMULTIPLIERREGIONAL JOBMULTIPLIERREGIONAL JOBMULTIPLIER××% OF LOCALMANUFACTURING% OF LOCALPRODUCTIONHEAT SUPPLY=MW INSTALLEDPER YEAR×EMPLOYMENT FACTORFOR HEAT×REGIONAL JOBMULTIPLIERJOBS IN REGION=MANUFACTURING+CONSTRUCTION+OPERATION &MAINTENANCE (O&M)+FUEL SUPPLYEMPLOYMENT FACTORAT 2020 OR 2030=(NUMBER OF YEARS AFTER 2010)EMPLOYMENT FACTOR ×TECHNOLOGY DECLINE FACTORreference68 JAY RUTOVITZ AND STEPHEN HARRIS. 2012.CALCULATING GLOBAL ENERGY SECTOR JOBS: 2012METHODOLOGY.189

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKfuture employment | EMPLOYMENT FACTORS6Several additional aspects of energy employment have beenincluded which were not calculated in previous Energy[R]evolution reports. Employment in nuclear decommissioninghas been calculated, and a partial estimate of employment in theheat sector is included.The large number of assumptions required to make calculationsmean that employment numbers are indicative only, especially forregions where little data exists. However, within the limits of dataavailability, the figures presented are representative ofemployment levels under the two scenarios.6.2 employment factors“Employment factors” are used to calculate how many jobs arerequired per unit of electrical or heating capacity, or per unit offuel. They take into account jobs in manufacturing, construction,operation and maintenance and fuel. Table 6.2 lists theemployment factors used in the calculations. These factors areusually from OECD countries, as this is where there is most data,although local factors are used wherever possible. For jobcalculations in non OECD regions, a regional adjustment is usedwhere a local factor is not available.Employment factors were derived with regional detail for coalmining, because coal is currently so dominant in the global energysupply, and because employment per ton varies enormously byregion. In Australia, for example, coal is extracted at an averageof 13,800 tons per person per year using highly mechanisedprocesses while in Europe the average coal miner is responsiblefor only 2,000 tonnes per year. India, China, and Russia haverelatively low productivity at present (700, 900, and 2000 tonsper worker per year respectively).The calculation of employment per PJ in coal mining draws ondata from national statistics, combined with production figuresfrom the IEA 69 or other sources. Data was collected for as manymajor coal producing countries as possible, with data obtainedfor more than 80% of world coal production.In China, India, and Russia, the changes in productivity over thelast 7 to 15 years were used to derive an annual improvementtrend, which has been used to project a reduction in theemployment factors for coal mining over the study period. InChina and Eastern Europe/Eurasia a lower employment factor isalso used for increases in coal consumption, as it is assumed thatexpansion will occur in the more efficient mining areas.China is a special case. While average productivity of coal perworker is currently low (700 tons per employee per year) this ischanging. Some new highly mechanised mines opening in Chinahave productivity of 30,000 tons per person per year. 70 It isassumed that any increase in coal production locally will comefrom the new type of mine, so the lower employment factor isused for additional consumption which is produced domestically.Russia accounts for more than half of the total coal productionin Eastern Europe/ Eurasia. Productivity is much higher therethan some other regions, and is improving year by year. It isassumed that expansion of coal production in the region will beat the current level of productivity in Russia, and that overallproductivity will continue the upward trend of the last 20 years.table 6.2: summary of employment factors used in global analysis 2012FUELCoalGasNuclearBiomassHydro-largeHydro-smallWind onshoreWind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermalOceanGeothermal - heatSolar - heatNuclear decommissioningCombined heat and powerCONSTRUCTION& INSTALLATIONJob years/MW7.71.714146.0152.57.1116.88.99.0MANUFACTURINGJobs/MW3.51.01.32.91.55.56.1116.93.94.01.0OPERATION &MAINTENANCEJobs/MW0.10.080.31.50.32.40.20.20.30.40.50.32FUEL – PRIMARYENERGY DEMANDJobs/PJregional220.001 jobs per GWh (final energy demand)323.0 jobs/ MW (construction and manufacturing7.4 jobs/ MW (construction and manufacturing0.95 jobs per MW decommissionedCHP technologies use the factor for the technology, i.e. coal, gas, biomass, geothermal, etc, increased by afactor of 1.5 for O&M only.note For details of sources and derivation of factors please see Rutovitz and Harris, 2012.references69 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY STATISTICS, AVAILABLE FROMHTTP://WWW.IEA.ORG/STATS/INDEX.ASP70 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY. 2007. WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, PAGE 337.190

image A WORKER SURVEYS THE EQUIPMENT ATANDASOL 1 SOLAR POWER STATION, WHICH ISEUROPE’S FIRST COMMERCIAL PARABOLIC TROUGHSOLAR POWER PLANT. ANDASOL 1 WILL SUPPLY UPTO 200,000 PEOPLE WITH CLIMATE-FRIENDLYELECTRICITY AND SAVE ABOUT 149,000 TONNES OFCARBON DIOXIDE PER YEAR COMPARED WITH AMODERN COAL POWER PLANT.© GP/MARKEL REDONDO6.3 regional adjustmentsMore details of all the regional adjustments, including theirderivation, can be found in the detailed methodology document. 716.3.1 regional job multipliersThe employment factors used in this model for all processes apartfrom coal mining reflect the situation in the OECD regions, which aretypically wealthier. The regional multiplier is applied to make the jobsper MW more realistic for other parts of the world. In developingcountries it typically means more jobs per unit of electricity becauseof more labour intensive practices. The multipliers change over thestudy period in line with the projections for GDP per worker. Thisreflects the fact that as prosperity increases, labour intensity tends tofall. The multipliers are shown in Table 6.4.6.3.2 local employment factorsLocal employment factors are used where possible. Region specificfactors are:• Africa: solar heating (factor for total employment), nuclear,and hydro – factor for operations and maintenance, and coal –all factors.• China: solar heating, coal fuel supply.• Eastern Europe/Eurasia: factor for gas and coal fuel supply.• OECD Americas: factor for gas and coal fuel jobs, and forsolar thermal power.• OECD Europe: factor for solar thermal power and for coalfuel supply.• India: factor for solar heating and for coal fuel supply.6.3.3 local manufacturing and fuel productionSome regions do not manufacture the equipment needed forinstallation of renewable technologies, for example wind turbines orsolar PV panels. The model takes into account a projection of thepercentage of renewable technology which is made locally. The jobsin manufacturing components for export are counted in the regionwhere they originate. The same applies to coal and gas fuels,because they are traded internationally, so the model shows theregion where the jobs are likely to be located.6.3.4 learning adjustments or ‘decline factors’This accounts for the projected reduction in the cost of renewableover time, as technologies and companies become more efficientand production processes are scaled up. Generally, jobs per MWwould fall in parallel with this trend.table 6.4: regional multipliersWorld averageOECDAfricaChinaEastern Europe/EurasiaIndiaLatin AmericaMiddle eastNon OECD Asia20101.81.04.32.63.03.62.92.92.420151.71.04.21.92.32.82.72.82.120201.61.04.21.51.92.42.62.81.920351.41.04.61.01.41.52.42.51.5note Derived from ILO (2010) Key Indicators of the Labour Market, seventh Editionsoftware, with growth in GDP per capita derived from IEA World Energy Outlook 2011.6future employment | REGIONAL ADJUSTMENTStable 6.3: employment factors used for coal fuel supply (MINING AND ASSOCIATED JOBS)World averageOECD North AmericaOECD EuropeOECD Asia OceaniaIndiaChinaAfricaEastern Europe/EurasiaNon OECD AsiaLatin AmericaMiddle eastEMPLOYMENT FACTOR(EXISTING GENERATION)Jobs per PJ233.9403.455681256EMPLOYMENT FACTOR(NEW GENERATION)Jobs per PJ3.9403.4551.41226Use world average as no employment data availableUse world average as no employment data availableUse world average as no employment data availableAVERAGE ANNUAL PRODUCTIVITYINCREASE 2010 - 2030Jobs per PJ5%5.5%4%references71 JAY RUTOVITZ AND STEPHEN HARRIS. 2012. CALCULATING GLOBAL ENERGY SECTOR JOBS: 2012METHODOLOGY.191

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKtable 6.5: total global employment MILLION JOBSBy sector201020152020REFERENCE20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 20306Construction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobs3.31.71.714.71.122.51.90.91.812.71.318.71.70.82.011.91.517.71.20.51.910.71.215.64.52.71.912.91.323.34.72.72.311.71.222.64.02.22.68.80.618.1future employment | REGIONAL ADJUSTMENTSBy fuelCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs9.15.10.547.822.59.15.10.55.21.00.70.40.020.010.0010.380.0322.56.75.20.506.418.76.75.20.54.70.90.40.20.020.020.0010.120.0118.75.85.30.416.217.75.85.30.44.60.90.40.20.010.030.0020.090.0117.74.65.40.295.315.64.65.40.34.00.90.20.10.010.030.010.080.0115.65.55.40.2612.223.35.55.40.35.10.91.82.00.120.50.111.40.2923.34.15.30.2713.022.64.15.30.35.00.71.91.60.170.850.122.00.5622.62.13.90.2711.918.22.13.90.34.50.71.71.50.160.830.101.70.6218.2figure 6.1: proportion of fossil fuel and renewable employment at 2010 and 20302010 - BOTH SCENARIOS2030 - REFERENCE SCENARIO2030 - ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2% NUCLEAR2% NUCLEAR1% NUCLEAR23% GAS35% GAS21% GAS22.5 million jobs15.6 million jobs18.2 million jobs35% RENEWABLE34% RENEWABLE12% COAL40% COAL29% COAL65% RENEWABLE192

image A WORKER STANDS BETWEEN WINDTURBINE ROTORS AT GANSU JINFENG WIND POWEREQUIPMENT CO. LTD. IN JIUQUAN, GANSUPROVINCE, CHINA.© GP/MARKEL REDONDO6.4 fossil fuels and nuclear energy- employment, investment, and capacitiesCoal jobs in both scenarios include coal used for heat supply.6.4.1 employment in coalJobs in the coal sector drop signficantly in both the Referencescenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. In the Referencescenario coal employment drops by 2.1 million jobs between2015 and 2030, despite generation from coal nearly doubling.Coal employment in 2010 was close to 9 million, so this is inaddition to a loss of 2 million jobs from 2010 to 2015.This is because employment per ton in coal mining is fallingdramtatically as efficiencies increase around the world. For example,one worker in the new Chinese ‘super mines’ is expected to produce30,000 tons of coal per year, compared to current average productivityacross all mines in China close to 700 tons per year, and averageproductivity per worker in North America close to 12,000 tons.Unsurprisingly, employment in the coal sector in the Energy[R]evolution scenario falls even more, reflecting a reduction incoal generation from 41% to 19% of all generation, on top ofthe increase in efficiency.6.4.2 employment in gas, oil and dieselEmployment in the gas sector stays relatatively stable in theReference scenario, while gas generation increases by 35%. In theEnergy [R]evolution scenario generation is reduced by 5% between2015 and 2030. Employment in the sector also falls, reflectingboth increasing efficiencies and the reduced generation. Gas sectorjobs in both scenarios include heat supply jobs from gas.6.4.3 employment in nuclear energytable 6.6: fossil fuels and nuclear energy: capacity, investment and direct jobsEmploymentCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclear energyUNITthousandsthousandsthousands20156,7055,162500Employment in nuclear energy falls by 42% in the Referencescenario between 2015 and 2030, while generation increases by34%. In the Energy [R]evolution generation is reduced by 75%between 2015 and 2030, representing a virtual phase out ofnuclear power. Employment in Energy [R]evolution increasesslightly, and in 2020 and 2030 is very simliar in both scenarios.This is because jobs in nuclear decomissioning replace jobs ingeneration. It is expected these jobs will persist for 20 - 30 years.REFERENCE2020 20305,8205,2964134,5985,44029020155,5135,358258ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 20304,0745,2812692,1233,8912706future employment | FOSSIL FUELS AND NUCLEAR ENERGYCOALEnergyInstalled capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyMarket and investmentAnnual increase in capacityAnnual investmentGWTWh%GW$1,98510,09241%71.7140,0072,26211,86842%55.5136,8482,75115,02742%49147,0861,7329,33339%2332,0181,6298,71333%-2132,0971,2066,42219%-5132,256GAS, OIL & DIESELEnergyInstalled capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyMarket and investmentAnnual increase in capacityAnnual investmentGWTWh%GW%1,8816,12025%4292,0672,0166,72124%2679,2502,2838,24823%2578,6501,8586,14926%2882,5221,8286,29924%-649,8911,7225,81118%-1328,590NUCLEAREnergyInstalled capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyMarket and investmentAnnual increase in capacityAnnual investmentGWTWh%GW$4202,94912%4.598,6024853,49512%12.9153,6575393,93811%5.4105,3033142,2269%-1728,2012251,6236%-1833,593755572%-15152193

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK6.5 employment in renewable energy technologiesThis report estimates direct jobs in renewable energy, includingconstruction, manufacturing, operations and maintentance, and fuelsupply wherever possible. It includes only direct jobs (such as thejob installing a wind turbine), and does not include indirect jobs(for example providing accomodation for construction workers).6.5.1 employment in wind energyIn the Energy [R]evolution scenario, wind energy would provide21% of total electricity generation by 2030, and would employ1.7 million people. Growth is much more modest in the Referencescenario, with wind energy providing 5% of generation, andemploying only 0.2 million people.future employment | EMPLOYMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES6The report does not include any estimate of jobs in energyefficiency, although this sector may create significant employment.The Energy [R]evolution scenario includes considerable increase inefficiencies in every sector compared to the Reference scenario,with a 21% decrease in primary energy use overall.table 6.7: wind energy: capacity, investment and direct jobsEnergyInstalled capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyMarket and investmentAnnual increase in capacityAnnual investmentUNITGWTWh%GW$20153978063%4169,7136.5.2 employment in biomassIn the Energy [R]evolution scenario, biomass would provide4.6% of total electricity generation by 2030, and would employ4.5 million people. Growth is slightly lower in the Referencescenario, with biomass providing 2.6% of generation, andemploying 4 million people. Jobs in heating from biomass fuelsare included in this total.20205251,1274%2644,758REFERENCE20307541,7105%2298,10520156381,3205%89154,645ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 20301,3572,98911%14221,4702,9086,97121%165340,428Employment in the energy sectorDirect jobs in construction,manufacturing, operationand maintenancethousands4083822351,8421,8651,723table 6.8: biomass: capacity, investment and direct jobsEnergyUNIT20152020REFERENCE20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030Installed capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyGWTWh%794331.8%985742.0%1559372.6%1015482.3%1629323.5%2651,5214.6%Market and investmentAnnual increase in capacityAnnual investmentGW$4.418,5993.816,3245.530,3259.331,23712.227,46712.239,776Employment in the energy sectorDirect jobs in construction,manufacturing, operationand maintenancethousands4,6524,5573,9805,0774,9954,549194

image A LOCAL WOMAN WORKS WITH TRADITIONALAGRICULTURE PRACTICES JUST BELOW 21STCENTURY ENERGY TECHNOLOGY. THE JILIN TONGYUTONGFA WIND POWER PROJECT, WITH A TOTAL OF118 WIND TURBINES, IS A GRID CONNECTEDRENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECT.© GP/HU WEI6.5.3 employment in geothermal powerIn the Energy [R]evolution scenario, geothermal power wouldprovide 3% of total electricity generation by 2030, and wouldemploy 165 thousand people. Growth is much more modest in theReference scenario, with geothermal power providing less than1% of generation, and employing only 11 thousand people.6.5.4 employment in wave and tidal powerIn the Energy [R]evolution scenario, wave and tidal power wouldprovide 2% of total electricity generation by 2030, and wouldemploy 105 thousand people. Growth is much more modest in theReference scenario, with wave and tidal power providing less than1% of generation, and employing only 5 thousand people.6table 6.9: geothermal power: capacity, investment and direct jobsEnergyInstalled capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyMarket and investmentAnnual increase in capacityAnnual investmentUNITGWTWh%GW$201515940.4%0.68,7712020181180.4%0.76,130REFERENCE2030271720.463%0.85,5642015261590.6%321,445ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030654001.3%843,0422191,3013.3%1871,025future employment | EMPLOYMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESEmployment in the energy sectorDirect jobs in construction,manufacturing, operationand maintenancethousands15.612.810.6122173165table 6.10: wave and tidal power: capacity, investment and direct jobsEnergyUNIT20152020REFERENCE20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030Installed capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyGWTWh%0.51.40.0%0.82.00.0%4.3130.0%8.6190.1%541390.5%1765601.7%Market and investmentAnnual increase in capacityAnnual investmentGW$0.13080.12000.38031.77,8219.029,72012.829,280Employment in the energy sectorDirect jobs in construction,manufacturing, operationand maintenancethousands0.52.05.2107121105195

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK6.5.5 employment in solar photovoltacisIn the Energy [R]evolution scenario, solar photovoltaics wouldprovide 8% of total electricity generation by 2030, and wouldemploy 1.5 million people. Growth is much more modest in theReference scenario, with solar photovoltaics providing less than1% of generation, and employing only 0.1 million people.6.5.6 employment in solar thermal powerIn the Energy [R]evolution scenario, solar thermal power wouldprovide 8.1% of total electricity generation by 2030, and wouldemploy 0.8 million people. Growth is much lower in the Referencescenario, with solar thermal power providing only 0.2% ofgeneration, and employing only 30 thousand people.6future employment | EMPLOYMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIEStable 6.11: solar photovoltaics: capacity, investment and direct jobsEnergyInstalled capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyMarket and investmentAnnual increase in capacityAnnual investmentUNITGWTWh%GW$2015881080.4%10.523,92020201241580.6%7.111,617REFERENCE20302343411.0%10.935,10420152342891.2%4088,875ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 20306748783.3%88141,9691,7642,6348.0%127179,922Employment in the energy sectorDirect jobs in construction,manufacturing, operationand maintenancethousands1822101241,9911,6351,528table 6.12: solar thermal power: capacity, investment and direct jobsEnergyUNIT20152020REFERENCE20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030Installed capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyGWTWh%500.0%11350.1%24810.2%34920.4%1664661.7%7142,6728.1%Market and investmentAnnual increase in capacityGW0.81.21.06.52655Employment in the energy sectorDirect jobs in construction,manufacturing, operationand maintenancethousands233530504855826196

image WORKERS BUILD A WIND TURBINE IN AFACTORY IN PATHUM THANI, THAILAND. THEIMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE DUE TO CLIMATECHANGE ARE PREDICTED TO HIT HARD ON COASTALCOUNTRIES IN ASIA, AND CLEAN RENEWABLEENERGY IS A SOLUTION.© GP/VINAI DITHAJOHN6.6 employment in the renewable heating sectorEmployment in the renewable heat sector includes jobs in installation,manufacturing, and fuel supply. This analysis includes only jobsassociated with fuel supply in the biomass sector, and jobs in installationand manufacturing for direct heat from solar, geothermal and heatpumps. It is therefore only a partial estimate of jobs in this sector.6.6.2 employment in geothermal and heat pump heatingIn the Energy [R]evolution scenario, geothermal and heat pumpheating would provide 10% of total heat supply by 2030, andwould employ 582 thousand people. Growth is much moremodest in the Reference scenario, with geothermal and heatpump heating providing less than 1% of heat supply, andemploying only 11 thousand people.6.6.1 employment in solar heatingIn the Energy [R]evolution scenario, solar heating would provide13% of total heat supply by 2030, and would employ 1.7 millionpeople. Growth is much more modest in the Reference scenario,with solar heating providing less than 1% of heat supply, andemploying only 75 thousand people.table 6.13: solar heating: capacity, investment and direct jobsEnergyInstalled capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyMarket and investmentAnnual increase in capacityEmployment in the energy sectorDirect jobs in installation & manufacturingUNITGWTWh%GWthousands20152778840.6%6.6.3 employment in biomass heatIn the Energy [R]evolution scenario, biomass heat would provide27% of total heat supply by 2030, and would employ 2.6 millionpeople in the supply of biomass feedstock. Growth is slightly lessin the Reference scenario, with biomass heat providing 22% ofheat supply, and employing 2.3 million people.20203441,1000.7%REFERENCE20305401,7431.0%table 6.14: geothermal and heat pump heating: capacity, investment and direct jobs13.312113.39219.17520158292,8661.9%1241,352ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 20302,1327,7245%2612,0365,43420,01013%3261,6926future employment | EMPLOYMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESEnergyUNIT20152020REFERENCE20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030Installed capacityTotal generationShare of total supplyMarket and investmentAnnual increase in capacityMWPJ%MW754380.3%2.4905250.3%3.01287250.4%4.03402,0011.3%55.39865,9594%1292,47915,96410%170Employment in the energy sectorDirect jobs in installation & manufacturingthousands101211253502582table 6.15: biomass heat: direct jobs in fuel supplyBiomass heatUNIT20152020REFERENCE20302015ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2020 2030Heat suppliedShare of total supplyEmployment in the energy sectorDirect jobs in jobs in fuel supplyPJ%thousands36,46423%2,92037,31122%2,78438,85622%2,26038,23325%3,17940,40326%2,93242,60027%2,571197

the silent revolution– past and current market developmentsPOWER PLANT MARKETSGLOBAL MARKET SHARESIN THE POWER PLANT MARKET7“the brightfuture forrenewable energyis already underway.”© NASA/JESSE ALLENtechnology SOLAR PARKS PS10 AND PS20, SEVILLE, SPAIN. THESE ARE PART OF A LARGER PROJECT INTENDED TO MEET THE ENERGY NEEDS OF SOME 180,000 HOMES —ROUGHLY THE ENERGY NEEDS OF SEVILLE BY 2013, WITHOUT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS.198

image THE SAN GORGONIO PASS WIND FARM ISLOCATED IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY NEAR PALMSPRINGS, ON THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE PASS INRIVERSIDE COUNTY, JUST EAST OF WHITE WATER.DEVELOPMENT BEGUN IN THE 1980S, THE SANGORGONIO PASS IS ONE OF THE WINDIEST PLACES INSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE PROJECT HAS MORETHAN 4,000 INDIVIDUAL TURBINES AND POWERS PALMSPRINGS AND THE REST OF THE DESERT VALLEY.© TODD WARSHAW/GPA new analysis of the global power plant market shows that sincethe late 1990s, wind and solar installations grew faster than anyother power plant technology across the world - about 430,000MW total installed capacities between 2000 and 2010. However,it is too early to claim the end of the fossil fuel based powergeneration, because more than 475,000 MW of new coal powerplants were built with embedded cumulative emissions of over 55billion tonnes CO2 over their technical lifetime.The global market volume of renewable energies in 2010 was onaverage, equal the total global energy market volume each yearbetween 1970 and 2000. There is a window of opportunity for newrenewable energy installations to replace old plants in OECDcountries and for electrification in developing countries. However,the window will close within the next years without good renewableenergy policies and legally binding CO2 reduction targets.Between 1970 and 1990, the OECD 72 global power plant marketwas dominated by countries that electrified their economies mainlywith coal, gas and hydro power plants. The power sector was in thehands of state-owned utilities with regional or nationwide supplymonopolies. The nuclear industry had a relatively short period ofsteady growth between 1970 and the mid 1980s - with a peak infigure 7.1: global power plant market 1970-20101985, one year before the Chernobyl accident - and went intodecline in following years, with no recent signs of growth.Between 1990 and 2000, the global power plant industry wentthrough a series of changes. While OECD countries began toliberalise their electricity markets, electricity demand did notmatch previous growth, so fewer new power plants were built.Capital-intensive projects with long payback times, such as coaland nuclear power plants, were unable to get sufficient financialsupport. The decade of gas power plants started.The economies of developing countries, especially in Asia, startedgrowing during the 1990s, triggering a new wave of power plantprojects. Similarly to the US and Europe, most of the newmarkets in the ‘tiger states’ of Southeast Asia partly deregulatedtheir power sectors. A large number of new power plants in thisregion were built from Independent Power Producer (IPPs), whosell the electricity mainly to state-owned utilities. The majority ofnew power plant technology in liberalised power markets isfuelled by gas, except for in China which focused on building newcoal power plants. Excluding China, the rest of the global powerplant market has seen a phase-out of coal since the late 1990swith growing gas and renewable generation, particularly wind.7the silent revolution | POWER PLANT MARKETS200,000180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000MW/a 0197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010NUCLEARCOALGAS (INCL. OIL)• BIOMASSGEOTHERMALHYDROWIND• CSPPVsourcePlatts, IEA, Breyer, Teske.reference72 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT.199

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKfigure 7.2: global power plant market 1970-2010, excluding china140,000120,000100,00080,000NUCLEARCOALGAS (INCL. OIL)• BIOMASSGEOTHERMALHYDROWIND• CSPPV60,000740,000the silent revolution | POWER PLANT MARKETS IN THE US, EUROPE AND CHINA20,000MW/a 0sourcePlatts, IEA, Breyer, Teske.19701972197419767.1 power plant markets in the us, europe and chinaThe graphs show how much electricity market liberalisationinfluences the choice of power plant technology. While the US andEuropean power sectors moved towards deregulated markets,which favour mainly gas power plants, China added a largeamount of coal until 2009, with the first signs for a change infavour of renewable energy in 2009 and 2010.figure 7.3: usa: power plant market 1970-2010197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000USA: Liberalisation of the US power sector started with the EnergyPolicy Act 1992, and became a game changer for the whole sector.While the US in 2010 is still far away from a fully liberalisedelectricity market, the effect has been a shift from coal and nucleartowards gas and wind. Since 2005 wind power plants have madeup an increasing share of the new installed capacities as a result ofmainly state-based renewable eneggy support programmes. Overthe past year, solar photovoltaic plays a growing role with a projectpipeline of 22,000 MW (Photon 4-2011, page 12).2002200420062008201070,00060,00050,000NUCLEARCOALGAS (INCL. OIL)• BIOMASSGEOTHERMALHYDROWIND• CSPPVPolicy act 1992 -deregulation of theUS electricity market40,00030,00020,00010,000MW/a 0197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010sourcePlatts, IEA, Breyer, Teske.200

image NESJAVELLIR GEOTHERMAL PLANT GENERATES ELECTRICITY AND HOT WATER BYUTILIZING GEOTHERMAL WATER AND STEAM. IT IS THE SECOND LARGEST GEOTHERMAL POWERSTATION IN ICELAND. THE STATION PRODUCES APPROXIMATELY 120MW OF ELECTRICAL POWER,AND DELIVERS AROUND 1,800 LITRES (480 US GAL) OF HOT WATER PER SECOND, SERVICING THEHOT WATER NEEDS OF THE GREATER REYKJAVIK AREA. THE FACILITY IS LOCATED 177 M (581 FT)ABOVE SEA LEVEL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY, NEAR THE HENGILL VOLCANO.© STEVE MORGAN/GPEurope: About five years after the US began deregulating thepower sector, the European Community started a similar processwith similar effect on the power plant market. Investors backedfewer new power plants and extended the lifetime of the existingones. New coal and nuclear power plants have seen a market shareof well below 10% since then. The growing share of renewables,especially wind and solar photovoltaic, are due to a legally-bindingtarget and the associated feed-in laws which have been in force inseveral member states of the EU 27 since the late 1990s. Overall,new installed power plant capacity jumped to a record high be theaged power plant fleet in Europe needed re-powering.figure 7.4: europe (eu 27): power plant market 1970-201060,000NUCLEARCOAL50,000GAS (INCL. OIL)• BIOMASSGEOTHERMAL40,00030,00020,00010,000MW/a 019701972197419761978198019821984figure 7.5: china: power plant market 1970-2010HYDROWIND• CSPPV1986198819901992199419961997 - deregulationof the EU electricitymarket began19982000200220042006200820107the silent revolution | POWER PLANT MARKETS IN THE US, EUROPE AND CHINA120,000100,00080,000NUCLEARCOALGAS (INCL. OIL)• BIOMASSGEOTHERMALHYDROWIND• CSPPV60,00040,00020,000MW/a 0197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010sourcePlatts, IEA, Breyer, Teske.201

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe silent revolution | THE GLOBAL MARKET SHARES IN THE POWER PLANT MARKET7China: The steady economic growth in China since the late 1990s,and the growing power demand, led to an explosion of the coalpower plant market, especially after 2002. In 2006 the markethit the peak year for new coal power plants: 88% of the newlyinstalled coal power plants worldwide were built in China. At thesame time, China is trying to take its dirtiest plants offline,between 2006 and 2010, a total of 76,825MW of small coalpower plants were phased out under the “11th Five Year”programme. While coal still dominates the new added capacity,wind power is rapidly growing as well. Since 2003 the windmarket doubled each year and was over 18,000 MW 73 by 2010,49% of the global wind market. However, coal still dominates thepower plant market with over 55 GW of new installed capacitiesin 2010 alone. The Chinese government aims to increaseinvestments into renewable energy capacity, and during 2009,about $ 25.1 billion (RMB162.7 billion) went to wind and hydropower plants which represents 44% of the overall investment innew power plants, for the first time larger than that of coal(RMB 149.2billion), and in 2010 the figure was US$26 billion(RMB168 billion) – 4.8% more in the total investment mixcompared with the previous year 2009.7.2 the global market shares in the power plantmarket: renewables gaining groundSince the year 2000, the wind power market gained a growingmarket share within the global power plant market. Initially onlya handful of countries, namely Germany, Denmark and Spain,dominated the wind market, but the wind industry now hasprojects in over 70 countries around the world. Following theexample of the wind industry, the solar photovoltaic industryexperienced an equal growth since 2005. Between 2000 and2010, 26% of all new power plants worldwide were renewablepowered– mainly wind – and 42% run on gas. So, two-thirds ofall new power plants installed globally are gas power plants andrenewable, with close to one-third as coal. Nuclear remainsirrelevant on a global scale with just 2% of the global marketshare. About 430,000 MW of new renewable energy capacityhas been installed over the last decade, while 475,000 MW ofnew coal, with embedded cumulative emissions of more than 55bn tonnes CO2 over their technical lifetime, came online – 78% or375,000 MW in China.The energy revolution towards renewables and gas, away fromcoal and nuclear, has already started on a global level. This pictureis even clearer when we look into the global market sharesexcluding China, the only country with a massive expansion ofcoal. About 28% of all new power plants have been renewablesand 60% have been gas power plants (88% in total). Coal gaineda market share of only 10% globally, excluding China. Between2000 and 2010, China has added over 350,000 MW of new coalcapacity: twice as much as the entire coal capacity of the EU.However China has recently kick-started its wind market, andsolar photovoltaics is expected to follow in the years to come.202reference73 WHILE THE OFFICIAL STATISTIC OF THE GLOBAL AND CHINESE WIND INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS(GWEC/CREIA) ADDS UP TO 18,900 MW FOR 2010, THE NATIONAL ENERGY BUREAU SPEAKS ABOUT 13,999MW. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOURCES AS DUE TO THE TIME OF GRID CONNECTION, AS SOME TURBINESHAVE BEEN INSTALLED IN THE LAST MONTHS OF 2010, BUT HAVE BEEN CONNECTED TO THE GRID IN 2011.

image WITNESSES FROM FUKUSHIMA, JAPAN,KANAKO NISHIKATA, HER TWO CHILDREN KAITOAND FUU AND TATSUKO OGAWARA VISIT A WINDFARM IN KLENNOW IN WENDLAND.© MICHAEL LOEWA/GPfigure 7.6: power plant market sharesglobal power plant market shares 2000-2010 - excluding chinaglobal power plant market shares 2000-201026% RENEWABLES 28% RENEWABLES2% NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS2% NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS10% COAL POWER PLANTS30% COAL POWER PLANTS42% GAS POWER PLANTS(INCL. OIL)60% GAS POWER PLANTS(INCL. OIL)7china: power plant market shares 2000-20102% NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS24% RENEWABLES5% GAS POWER PLANTS (INCL. OIL)69% COAL POWER PLANTSusa: power plant market shares 2000-20104%15%COAL POWER PLANTSRENEWABLESEU27: power plant market shares 2000-2010 - excluding china3% NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS6% COAL POWER PLANTS45% RENEWABLESthe silent revolution | THE GLOBAL MARKET SHARES IN THE POWER PLANT MARKET81% GAS POWER PLANTS(INCL. OIL)46% GAS POWER PLANTS(INCL. OIL)source PLATTS, IEA, BREYER, TESKE, GWAC, EPIA.203

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKfigure 7.7: historic developments of the global power plant market, by technologyGLOBAL ANNUAL GAS POWER PLANT MARKET (INCL. OIL) 1970-2010100,00090,00080,00070,000MW/a60,00050,00040,00030,00020,000710,0000the silent revolution | THE GLOBAL MARKET SHARES IN THE POWER PLANT MARKET197019721974GLOBAL ANNUAL COAL POWER PLANT MARKET 1970-2010MW/a90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000197019761978198019821984•COAL POWER PLANTS IN CHINACOAL POWER PLANTS - ALL OTHER COUNTRIES197219741976197819801982198419861986198819881990199019921992199419941996199619981998200020002002200220042004200620062008200820102010204

image WIND ENERGY PARK NEAR DAHME. WINDTURBINE IN THE SNOW OPERATED BY VESTAS.© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GPfigure 7.7: historic developments of the global power plant market, by technology continuedGLOBAL ANNUAL NUCLEAR POWER PLANT MARKET 1970-201050,00040,000MW/a30,00020,00010,0000GLOBAL ANNUAL WIND POWER MARKET 1970-2010MW/a1970197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010740,00030,00020,00010,0000•WIND POWER PLANTS IN CHINAWIND POWER PLANTS - ALL OTHER COUNTRIES19721974GLOBAL ANNUAL SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET 1970-201019761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020,000MW/a10,0000197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004the silent revolution | THE GLOBAL MARKET SHARES IN THE POWER PLANT MARKET200620082010205

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKthe silent revolution | THE GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET77.3 the global renewable energy marketThe renewable energy sector has been growing substantially overthe last 10 years. In 2011, the increases in the installation ratesof both wind and solar power were particularly impressive. Thetotal amount of renewable energy installed worldwide is reliablytracked by the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21stCentury (REN21). Its latest global status report (2012) showshow the technologies have grown. The following text has beentaken from the Renewables 2012 – Global Status Report–published in June 2012 with the permit of REN 21 and is ashortened version of the executive summary:Renewable Energy Growth in All End-Use SectorsRenewable energy sources have grown to supply an estimated16.7% of global final energy consumption in 2010. Of this total,modern renewable energy accounted for an estimated 8.2%, ashare that has increased in recent years, while the share fromtraditional biomass has declined slightly to an estimated 8.5%.During 2011, modern renewables continued to grow strongly inall end-use sectors: power, heating and cooling, and transport.In the power sector, renewables accounted for almost half of theestimated 208 gigawatts (GW) of electric capacity addedglobally during 2011. Wind and solar photovoltaics (PV)accounted for almost 40% and 30% of new renewable capacity,respectively, followed by hydropower (nearly 25%). By the end of2011, total renewable power capacity worldwide exceeded 1,360GW, up 8% over 2010; renewables comprised more than 25% oftotal global power-generating capacity (estimated at 5,360 GWin 2011) and supplied an estimated 20.3% of global electricity.Non-hydropower renewables exceeded 390 GW, a 24% capacityincrease over 2010.The heating and cooling sector offers an immense yet mostlyuntapped potential for renewable energy deployment. Heat frombiomass, solar, and geothermal sources already represents asignificant portion of the energy derived from renewables, and thesector is slowly evolving as countries (particularly in theEuropean Union) are starting to enact supporting policies and totrack the share of heat derived from renewable sources. Trends inthe heating (and cooling) sector include an increase in systemsize, expanding use of combined heat and power (CHP), thefeeding of renewable heating and cooling into district networks,and the use of renewable heat for industrial purposes.Renewable energy is used in the transport sector in the form ofgaseous and liquid biofuels; liquid biofuels provided about 3% ofglobal road transport fuels in 2011, more than any otherrenewable energy source in the transport sector. Electricity powerstrains, subways, and a small but growing number of passengercars and motorised cycles, and there are limited but increasinginitiatives to link electric transport with renewable energy.Solar PV grew the fastest of all renewable technologies duringthe period from end-2006 through 2011, with operating capacityincreasing by an average of 58% annually, followed byconcentrating solar thermal power (CSP), which increasedalmost 37% annually over this period from a small base, andwind power (26%). Demand is also growing rapidly for solarthermal heat systems, geothermal ground-source heat pumps, andsome solid biomass fuels, such as wood pellets. The developmentof liquid biofuels has been mixed in recent years, with biodieselproduction expanding in 2011 and ethanol production stable ordown slightly compared with 2010. Hydropower and geothermalpower are growing globally at rates averaging 2–3% per year. Inseveral countries, however, the growth in these and otherrenewable technologies far exceeds the global average.A Dynamic Policy LandscapeAt least 118 countries, more than half of which are developingcountries, had renewable energy targets in place by early 2012, upfrom 109 as of early 2010. Renewable energy targets and supportpolicies continued to be a driving force behind increasing marketsfor renewable energy, despite some setbacks resulting from a lackof long-term policy certainty and stability in many countries.The number of official renewable energy targets and policies inplace to support investments in renewable energy continued toincrease in 2011 and early 2012, but at a slower adoption raterelative to previous years. Several countries undertook significantpolicy overhauls that have resulted in reduced support; somechanges were intended to improve existing instruments and achievemore targeted results as renewable energy technologies mature,while others were part of the trend towards austerity measures.Renewable power generation policies remain the most commontype of support policy; at least 109 countries had some type ofrenewable power policy by early 2012, up from the 96 countriesreported in the GSR 2011. Feed-in-tariffs (FITs) and renewableportfolio standards (RPS) are the most commonly used policies inthis sector. FIT policies were in place in at least 65 countries and27 states by early 2012. While a number of new FITs wereenacted, most related policy activities involved revisions to existinglaws, at times under controversy and involving legal disputes.Quotas or Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) were in use in18 countries and at least 53 other jurisdictions, with two newcountries having enacted such policies in 2011 and early 2012.Policies to promote renewable heating and cooling continue to beenacted less aggressively than those in other sectors, but their usehas expanded in recent years. By early 2012, at least 19countries had specific renewable heating/cooling targets in placeand at least 17 countries and states had obligations/mandates topromote renewable heat. Numerous local governments alsosupport renewable heating systems through building codes andother measures. The focus of this sector is still primarily inEurope, but interest is expanding to other regions.206

image SOLON AG PHOTOVOLTAICS FACILITY INARNSTEIN OPERATING 1,500 HORIZONTAL ANDVERTICAL SOLAR “MOVERS”. LARGEST TRACKINGSOLAR FACILITY IN THE WORLD. EACH “MOVER”CAN BE BOUGHT AS A PRIVATE INVESTMENT FROMTHE S.A.G. SOLARSTROM AG, BAYERN, GERMANY.© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GPInvestment TrendsGlobal new investment in renewables rose 17% to a record $ 257billion in 2011. This was more than six times the figure for 2004and almost twice the total investment in 2007, the last year beforethe acute phase of the recent global financial crisis. This increasetook place at a time when the cost of renewable power equipmentwas falling rapidly and when there was uncertainty over economicgrowth and policy priorities in developed countries. Including largehydropower, net investment in renewable power capacity was some$ 40 billion higher than net investment in fossil fuel capacity.7.3 the global power plant marketThe global power plant market continues to grow and reached arecord high in 2011 with approximately 292 GW of new capacityadded or under construction by beginning of 2012. Whilerenewable energy power plant dominate close to 40% of theoverall market, followed by gas power plants with 26%, coalpower plants still represent a share of 34% or just over 100 GWor roughly 100 new coal power plants. These power plants willemit CO2 over the coming decades and lock-in the world’s powersector towards a dangerous climate change pathway.table 7.1: overview global renewable energy market 20117Investment in new renewable capacity (annual)Renewable power capacity (total, not including hydro)Renewable power capacity (total, including hydro)Hydropower capacity (total)Solar PV capacity (total)Concentrating solar thermal power (total)Wind power capacity (total)Solar hot water/heat capacity (total)Ethanol production (annual)Biodiesel production (annual)Countries with policy targetsStates/provinces/countries with feed in policiesStates/provinces/countries with RPS/quota policiesStates/provinces/countries with biofuel mandatesbillion USDGWGWGWGWGWGWGWbillion litresbillion litres####20091612501,170915230.715915373.117.88982665720102203151,260945401.319818286.518.510986697120112573901,360970701.823823286.121.4118927172the silent revolution | THE GLOBAL POWER PLANT MARKETfigure 7.8: global power plant market 2011NEW POWER PLANTS BY TECHNOLOGY INSTALLED & UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN 2011figure 7.9: global power plant by regionNEW INSTALLATIONS IN 20111% NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS10% SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC36% CHINA14% WIND34% COAL POWER PLAN30% REST OF THE WORLD13% HYDRO19% EUROPE2% BIOMASS9% INDIA1% GEOTHERMAL26% GAS POWER PLANTS6% USA(INCL. OIL)207

energy resources and security of supply8GLOBALOILCOALRENEWABLE ENERGYGASNUCLEAR“the issue ofsecurity ofsupply is now at thetop of the energypolicy agenda.”© NASA/JESSE ALLEN, ROBERT SIMMONimage THE HOTTEST SPOT ON EARTH IN THE LUT DESERT. THE SINGLE HIGHEST LST RECORDED IN ANY YEAR, IN ANY REGION, OCCURRED THERE IN 2005, WHEN MODISRECORDED A TEMPERATURE OF 70.7°C (159.3°F)—MORE THAN 12°C (22°F) WARMER THAN THE OFFICIAL AIR TEMPERATURE RECORD FROM LIBYA.208

image TEST WINDMILL N90 2500, BUILT BY THEGERMAN COMPANY NORDEX, IN THE HARBOUR OFROSTOCK. THIS WINDMILL PRODUCES 2.5 MEGA WATTAND IS TESTED UNDER OFFSHORE CONDITIONS. TWOTECHNICIANS WORKING INSIDE THE TURBINE.© PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GPThe issue of security of supply is at the top of the energy policyagenda. Concern is focused both on price security and thesecurity of physical supply for countries with none if their ownresources. At present around 80% of global energy demand ismet by fossil fuels. The world is currently experiencing anunrelenting increase in energy demand in the face of the finitenature of these resources. At the same time, the globaldistribution of oil and gas resources does not match thedistribution of demand. Some countries have to rely almostentirely on fossil fuel imports.Table 8.1 shows estimated deposits and current use of fossil energysources. There is no shortage of fossil fuels; there might a shortageof conventional oil and gas. Reducing global fossil fuel consumptionfor reasons of resource scarcity alone is not mandatory, eventhough there may be substantial price fluctuations and regional orstructural shortages as we have seen in the past.The presently known coal resources and reserves alone probablyamount to around 3,000 times the amount currently mined in ayear. Thus, in terms of resource potential, current-level demand couldbe met for many hundreds of years to come. Coal is also relativelyevenly spread across the globe; each continent holds considerabledeposits. However, the supply horizon is clearly much lower forconventional mineral oil and gas reserves at 40–50 years. If someresources or deposits currently still classified as ‘unconventional’ areincluded, the resource potentials exceed the current consumptionrate by far more than one hundred years. However, seriousecological damage is frequently associated with fossil energy mining,particularly of unconventional deposits in oil sands and oil shale.Over the past few years, new commercial processes have beendeveloped in the natural gas extraction sector, allowing moreaffordable access to gas deposits previously considered‘unconventional’, many of which are more frequently found andevenly distributed globally than traditional gas fields. However,tight gas and shale gas extraction can potentially be accompaniedby seismic activities and the pollution of groundwater basins andinshore waters. It therefore needs special regulations. It isexpected that an effective gas market will develop using theexisting global distribution network for liquid gas via tankers andloading terminals. With greater competitiveness regards pricefixing, it is expected that the oil and gas prices will no longer belinked. Having more liquid gas in the energy mix (currentlyaround 10 % of overall gas consumption) significantly increasessupply security, e.g. reducing the risks of supply interruptionsassociated with international pipeline networks.Gas hydrates are another type of gas deposit found in the form ofmethane aggregates both in the deep sea and underground inpermafrost. They are solid under high pressure and low temperatures.While there is the possibility of continued greenhouse gas emissionsfrom such deposits as a consequence of arctic permafrost soil thawor a thawing of the relatively flat Siberian continental shelf, there isalso potential for extraction of this energy source. Many states,including the USA, Japan, India, China and South Korea havelaunched relevant research programmes. Estimates of global depositsvary greatly; however, all are in the zettajoule range, for example70,000–700,000 EJ (Krey et al., 2009). The Global EnergyAssessment report estimates the theoretical potential to be2,650–2,450,000 EJ (GEA, 2011), i.e. possibly more than athousand times greater than the current annual total energyconsumption. Approximately a tenth (1,200–245,600 EJ) is rated aspotentially extractable. The WBGU advised against applied researchfor methane hydrate extraction, as mining bears considerable risksand methane hydrates do not represent a sustainable energy source(‘The Future Oceans’, WBGU, 2006).8energy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELStable 8.1: global occurances of fossil and nuclear sourcesTHERE ARE HIGH UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ASSESSMENT OF RESERVES AND RESOURCES.FUELHISTORICAL PRODUCTIONUP TO 2008 (EJ)PRODUCTIONIN 2008 (EJ)RESERVES(EJ)RESOURCES(EJ)FURTHERDEPOSITS (EJ)Conventional oilUnconventional oilConventional gasUnconventional gasCoalTotal fossil sourcesConventional uraniumUnconventional uranium6,5005003,4001607,10017,6601,300-170231181215047326-6,3503,8006,00042,50021,00079,6502,400-4,96734,0008,04156,500440,000543,5077,4004,100-47,000-490,000-537,000-2,600,000sourceThe representative figures shown here are WBGU estimates on the basis of the GEA, 2011.209

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKtable 8.2: overview of the resulting emissions if all fossil resources were burnedPOTENTIAL EMISSIONS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE USE OF FOSSIL RESERVES AND RESOURCES. ALSO ILLUSTRATED IS THEIR POTENTIAL FORENDANGERING THE 2ºC GUARD RAIL. THIS RISK IS EXPRESSED AS THE FACTOR BY WHICH, ASSUMING COMPLETE EXHAUSTION OF THE RESPECTIVERESERVES AND RESOURCES, THE RESULTANT CO2 EMISSIONS WOULD EXCEED THE 750 GT C02 BUDGET PERMISSIBLE FROM FOSSIL SOURCES UNTIL 2050.FOSSIL FUELHISTORICALPRODUCTIONUP TO 2008(GT CO2)PRODUCTIONIN 2008(GT CO2)RESERVES(GT CO2)RESOURCES(GT CO2)FURTHERDEPOSITS(GT CO2)TOTALRESERVES,RESOURCESAND FURTHEROCCURENCES(GT CO2)FACTOR BYWHICH THESEEMISSIONSALONEEXCEED THE2ºC EMISSIONSBUDGETenergy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELS8Conventional oilUnconventional oilConventional gasUnconventional gasCoalTotal fossil fuelssourceGEA, 2011.5053919296661,411132711436box 8.1: the energy [r]evolution fossil fuel pathwayThe Energy [R]evolution scenario will phase-out fossil fuel notsimply as they are depleted, but to achieve a greenhouse gasreduction pathway required to avoid dangerous climate change.Decisions new need to avoid a “lock-in” situation meaning thatinvestments in new oil production will make it more difficult tochange to a renewable energy pathway in the future. Scenariodevelopment shows that the Energy [R]evolution can be madewithout any new oil exploration and production investments inthe arctic or deep sea wells. Unconventional oil such asCanada’s tars and or Australia’s shale oil is not needed toguarantee the supply oil until it is phased out under the Energy[R]evolution scenario (see chapter 3).8.1 oilOil is the lifeblood of the modern global economy, as the effectsof the supply disruptions of the 1970s made clear. It is thenumber one source of energy, providing about one third of theworld’s needs and the fuel employed almost exclusively foressential uses such as transportation. However, a passionatedebate has developed over the ability of supply to meet increasingconsumption, a debate obscured by poor information and stirredby recent soaring prices.4932953392,4051,9705,5023862,6404553,19741,27747,954-3,649-27,724-31,3738796,58479433,32543,24784,8291914458113without analysis or verification. Moreover, as there is no agreeddefinition of reserves or standard reporting practice, these figuresusually represent different physical and conceptual magnitudes.Confusing terminology - ‘proved’, ‘probable’, ‘possible’,‘recoverable’, ‘reasonable certainty’ - only adds to the problem.Historically, private oil companies have consistentlyunderestimated their reserves to comply with conservative stockexchange rules and through natural commercial caution.Whenever a discovery was made, only a portion of the geologist’sestimate of recoverable resources was reported; subsequentrevisions would then increase the reserves from that same oilfield over time. National oil companies, mostly represented byOPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), havetaken a very different approach. They are not subject to any sortof accountability and their reporting practices are even less clear.In the late 1980s, the OPEC countries blatantly overstated theirreserves while competing for production quotas, which wereallocated as a proportion of the reserves. Although some revisionwas needed after the companies were nationalised, between 1985and 1990, OPEC countries increased their apparent joint reservesby 82%. Not only were these dubious revisions never corrected,but many of these countries have reported untouched reserves foryears, even if no sizeable discoveries were made and productioncontinued at the same pace. Additionally, the Former SovietUnion’s oil and gas reserves have been overestimated by about30% because the original assessments were later misinterpreted.8.1.1 the reserves chaosPublic information about oil and gas reserves is strikinglyinconsistent, and potentially unreliable for legal, commercial,historical and sometimes political reasons. The most widelyavailable and quoted figures, those from the industry journals Oiland Gas Journal and World Oil, have limited value as they reportthe reserve figures provided by companies and governmentsWhilst private companies are now becoming more realistic aboutthe extent of their resources, the OPEC countries hold by far themajority of the reported reserves, and their information is asunsatisfactory as ever. Their conclusions should therefore betreated with considerable caution. To fairly estimate the world’soil resources would require a regional assessment of the meanbackdated (i.e. ‘technical’) discoveries.210

image PLATFORM/OIL RIG DUNLIN IN THE NORTH SEA SHOWING OIL POLLUTION.image ON A LINFEN STREET, TWO MEN LOAD UP A CART WITH COAL THAT WILL BEUSED FOR COOKING. LINFEN, A CITY OF ABOUT 4.3 MILLION, IS ONE OF THE MOSTPOLLUTED CITIES IN THE WORLD. CHINA’S INCREASINGLY POLLUTEDENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY A RESULT OF THE COUNTRY’S RAPID DEVELOPMENTAND CONSEQUENTLY A LARGE INCREASE IN PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION,WHICH IS ALMOST ENTIRELY PRODUCED BY BURNING COAL.© GP/LANGER© N. BEHRING-CHISHOLM/GP8.1.2 non-conventional oil reservesA large share of the world’s remaining oil resources is classified as‘non-conventional’. Potential fuel sources such as oil sands, extraheavy oil and oil shale are generally more costly to exploit andtheir recovery involves enormous environmental damage. Thereserves of oil sands and extra heavy oil in existence worldwide areestimated to amount to around 6 trillion barrels, of which between1 and 2 trillion barrels are believed to be recoverable if the oilprice is high enough and the environmental standards low enough.One of the worst examples of environmental degradation resultingfrom the exploitation of unconventional oil reserves is the oilsands that lie beneath the Canadian province of Alberta and formthe world’s second-largest proven oil reserves after Saudi Arabia.The ‘tar sands’ are a heavy mixture of bitumen, water, sand andclay found beneath more than 54,000 square miles 74 of primeforest in northern Alberta, an area the size of England andWales. Producing crude oil from this resource generates up tofour times more carbon dioxide, the principal global warming gas,than conventional drilling. The booming oil sands industry willproduce 100 million tonnes of CO2 a year (equivalent to a fifth ofthe UK’s entire annual emissions) by 2012, ensuring that Canadawill miss its emission targets under the Kyoto treaty. The oil rushis also scarring a wilderness landscape: millions of tonnes of plantlife and top soil are scooped away in vast opencast mines andmillions of litres of water diverted from rivers. Up to five barrelsof water are needed to produce a single barrel of crude and theprocess requires huge amounts of natural gas. It takes two tonnesof the raw sands to produce a single barrel of oil.8.2 gasNatural gas has been the fastest growing fossil energy sourceover the last two decades, boosted by its increasing share in theelectricity generation mix. Gas is generally regarded as anabundant resource and there is lower public concern aboutdepletion than for oil, even though few in-depth studies addressthe subject. Gas resources are more concentrated and a fewmassive fields make up most of the reserves. The largest gas fieldin the world holds 15% of the Ultimate Recoverable Resources(URR), compared to 6% for oil. Unfortunately, information aboutgas resources suffers from the same bad practices as oil databecause gas mostly comes from the same geological formations,and the same stakeholders are involved.Most reserves are initially understated and then gradually revisedupwards, giving an optimistic impression of growth. By contrast,Russia’s reserves, the largest in the world, are considered to havebeen overestimated by about 30%. Owing to geologicalsimilarities, gas follows the same depletion dynamic as oil, andthus the same discovery and production cycles. In fact, existingdata for gas is of worse quality than for oil, with ambiguitiesarising over the amount produced, partly because flared andvented gas is not always accounted for. As opposed to publishedreserves, the technical ones have been almost constant since1980 because discoveries have roughly matched production.8.2.1 shale gas 75Natural gas production, especially in the United States, hasrecently involved a growing contribution from non-conventionalgas supplies such as shale gas. Conventional natural gas depositshave a well-defined geographical area, the reservoirs are porousand permeable, the gas is produced easily through a wellbore anddoes not generally require artificial stimulation.Natural gas obtained from unconventional reserves (known as“shale gas” or “tight gas”) requires the reservoir rock to befractured using a process known as hydraulic fracturing or“fracking”. Fracking is associated with a range of environmentalimpacts some of which are not fully documented or understood.In addition, it appears that the greenhouse gas “footprint” ofshale gas production may be significantly greater than forconventional gas and is claimed to be even worse than for coal.Research and investment in non-conventional gas resources hasincreased significantly in recent years due to the rising price ofconventional natural gas. In some areas the technologies foreconomic production have already been developed, in others it isstill at the research stage. Extracting shale gas, however, usuallygoes hand in hand with environmentally hazardous processes.Even so, it is expected to increase.Greenpeace is opposed to the exploitation of unconventionalgas reserves and these resources are not needed to guaranteethe needed gas supply under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.8.3 coalCoal was the world’s largest source of primary energy until it wasovertaken by oil in the 1960s. Today, coal supplies almost onequarter of the world’s energy. Despite being the most abundant offossil fuels, coal’s development is currently threatened byenvironmental concerns; hence its future will unfold in the contextof both energy security and global warming.Coal is abundant and more equally distributed throughout theworld than oil and gas. Global recoverable reserves are thelargest of all fossil fuels, and most countries have at least some.Moreover, existing and prospective big energy consumers like theUS, China and India are self-sufficient in coal and will be for theforeseeable future. Coal has been exploited on a large scale fortwo centuries, so both the product and the available resources arewell known; no substantial new deposits are expected to bediscovered. Extrapolating the demand forecast forward, the worldwill consume 20% of its current reserves by 2030 and 40% by2050. Hence, if current trends are maintained, coal would stilllast several hundred years.references74 THE INDEPENDENT, 10 DECEMBER 2007.75 INTERSTATE NATURAL GAS ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA (INGAA), “AVAILABILITY, ECONOMICS AND PRODUCTIONPOTENTIAL OF NORTH AMERICAN UNCONVENTIONAL NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES”, NOVEMBER 2008.2118energy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELS, NUCLEAR

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmap 8.1: oil reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioWORLDWIDE SCENARIO33.936.9125NON RENEWABLE RESOURCEOIL63.522.883.828.9109.3United States886.0energy resources & security of supply | OILCanadaIcelandGreenlandUnited KingdomIrelandDenmarkA R C T I CO C E A NNorwaySwedenFinlandEstoniaLithuaniaNeth.BelarusLEGEND - ARTICGermanyREGIONPolandBel.UkraineCzech Rep.SlovakiaLatviaRussiaKazakhstanUzbekistanMongoliaKyrgyzstanChina36.8OECD NORTH AMERICAMyanmarREFE[R]TMB % TMB %Tajikistan2010 Nepal 74.3 5.5% 74.3 5.5%24.1LATIN AMERICAREFTMB %2010 239.4 17.8%E[R]TMB %239.4 17.8%zores Islandsary IslandsPortugalMoroccoSpainMold.FranceSwitz. Austria HungaryPOSSIBLE OIL & Slovenia GAS EXPLORATION Romania FIELDSGeorgiaCroatiaAzerbaijanBosniaSerbia& Herz.Italy& Mont. Bulgaria200 SEA MILE NATIONAL BOUNDARYAlbania Mac.TurkeyGreeceSyriaCyprusIraqLebanonIsraelTunisiaJordanTurkmenistanAfghanistanPakistanIranKuwaitQatarU. A. E. Oman2009 India205020092050MB PJ6,687H 40,923H6,059H 37,080L2,436H1,668HSri LankaMB6,687H552L2,436H144PJ40,923H3,1932009205020092050MB1,5692,433L555612PJ9,60014,890MB1,569194L55549PJ9,6001,186n SaharaAlgeriaLEGEND - WORLD MAPSaudi ArabiaEgyptMauritaniaYemenSenegal>60 50-60 40-50REF REFERENCE SCENARIOMaliEritreauNiger30-40 20-30 10-20E[R] ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION Sudan SCENARIO SomaliaGuineaChadBurkina FasoLibya160I N 150 D I A NO C E A N140130120110$ PER BARRELCOSTcrude oil prices 1988 -2010 and future predictionscomparing the REF andE[R] scenario1 barrel = 159 litresSOURCES REF: INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY/E[R]: DEVELOPMENTSAPPLIED IN THE GES-PROJECTE[R]REFrra LeoneEthiopia5-10 Cote 0-5 Benin % RESOURCESD'IvoireGLOBALLYGhanaNigeriaLiberiaCentral African RepublicCameroonUganda KenyaEquatorialPOSSIBLEGuineaMAIN DEEP SEA OIL EXPLORATION FIELDSSao Tome & PrincipeO C E A NGabonCongoDem. Rep.Of CongoTRADE FLOWS (MLLION TONNES)RwandaBurundiTanzaniaMadagascar1009080706050RESERVES TOTAL THOUSAND MILLION BARRELS [TMB] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2011]AngolaZambiaMozambique4030CONSUMPTION PER REGION MILLION BARRELS Zimbabwe [MB] | PETA JOULE [PJ]20NamibiaBotswanaCONSUMPTION PER PERSON LITERS [L]South Africa100H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST0 1000 KM1988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082010YEARS 1988 - 2010 PAST20152020203020402050YEARS 2010 - 2050 FUTURE212

OECD EUROPEMIDDLE EASTCHINAEAST EUROPE/EURASIAREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]TMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %2010 14.8 1.1%M14.8 1.1%M2010 752.5H 56.0%H752.5H 56.0%H2010 14.8 1.1%14.8 1.1%2010 85.6 6.4%85.6 6.4%MBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJ20094,16025,4624,16025,46220092,03612,4632,03612,46320092,58015,7872,58015,78720091,4588,9231,4588,92320503,62122,163497M3,042M20503,549M 21,720M 2871,75620506,10637,366H1,190H7,283H20502,11812,961299L1,833LLLLLLLLL20091,2331,23320091,7211,72120093113112009679M679M20501,022M14020501,627132M205068413320501,146162295.283.0116.7227.1179.945.7118.4GLOBAL45.4REFE[R]TMB %TMB %2010 1,344 100%1,344 100%129.6MBPJMBPJ200924,701151,16824,701151,16821.343.7AFRICAREFE[R]227.1INDIAREFE[R]28.628.839.537.620.0NON-OECD ASIAREFE[R]2050 34,537 211,365 4,893 29,942LL2009 6046042050 59985OECD ASIA OCEANIAREFE[R]8energy resources & security of supply | OILTMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %TMB %2010 132.1M 9.8%M132.1M 9.8%M2010 9.0 0.7%9.0 0.7%2010 16.0 1.2%16.0 1.2%2010 5.4L 0.4%L5.4L 0.4%LMBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJMBPJ20091,0396,359L1,0396,35920091,040L6,3661,040L6,366L20091,73810,6341,73810,63420092,394M 14,651M 2,39414,65120501,640L10,037L5553,39820504,14325,3544943,02420503,03718,5855293,23920501,83211,2093251,990LLLLLLLL20091791792009146L146L200928328320091,9021,9022050131L44L20503974720503215620501,635290HCO2 EMISSIONSFROM OILcomparison betweenthe REF and E[R]scenario 2009 - 2050billion tonnesRESERVES AND CONSUMPTIONoil reserves versus global demand, productionand consumption. global consumption comparisonbetween the REF and E[R] scenario.million barrels. 1 barrel = 159 litresREF global consumptionE[R] global consumptionSOURCE GPI/ERECSOURCE BP 2011252015105BILLION TONNES0200920152020203020402050REF15.9E[R]2.250,00040,00030,00020,00010,0001,344BILLIONBARRELSPROVEN2010019721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200920152020203020402050MILLION BARRELSREFE[R]1,323BILLIONBARRELSUSED SINCE2009691BILLIONBARRELSUSED SINCE2009YEARS 2009 - 2050YEARS 1972 - 2009 PASTYEARS 2009 - 2050 FUTUREDESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.213

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmap 8.2: gas reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioWORLDWIDE SCENARIO92.420.99.46.25.48energy resources & security of supply | GASOECD NORTH AMERICAREFE[R]tn m 3 % tn m 3 %9.8LATIN AMERICAREFtn m 3 %E[R]tn m 3 %2010 9.9 5.2%9.9 5.2%2010 7.4 3.9%7.4 3.9%NON RENEWABLE RESOURCE2009PJbn m 3 bn m 3731H 27,790H 731HPJ27,790H2009PJbn m 3 bn m 3119 4,539 119PJ4,5392050890H33,814H672,559205030111,441622,373GAS20092050m 3 m 31,5981,5981,49611320092050m 3 m 3255255499104LEGEND>50 40-50 30-4020-30 10-20 5-100-5 % RESOURCESGLOBALLYREFREFERENCE SCENARIOE[R] ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIOPIPELINE GAS TRADE FLOWS (BILLION CUBIC METRES)LNG TRADE FLOWS (BILLION CUBIC METRES)RESERVES TOTAL TRILLION CUBIC METRES [tn m 3 ] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2011]CONSUMPTION PER REGION BILLION CUBIC METRES [bn m 3 ] | PETA JOULE [PJ]CONSUMPTION PER PERSON CUBIC METRES [m 3 ]H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST0 1000 KM3029282726252423222120191817161514131211109876543210$ PER MILLION BtuCOSTgas prices of LNG/natural gas 1984 - 2010and future predictionscomparing the REFand E[R] scenarios.SOURCE JAPAN CIF/EUROPEANUNION CIF/IEA 2010 - US IMPORTS/IEA 2010 - EUROPEAN IMPORTSLNG198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008YEARS 1988 - 2010 PAST2010201520202030E[R]REF20402050YEARS 2009 - 2050 FUTURE214

OECD EUROPEMIDDLE EASTCHINAEAST EUROPE/EURASIAREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]tn m 3 %tn m 3 %tn m 3 %tn m 3 %tn m 3 %tn m 3 %tn m 3 %tn m 3 %2010 13.6 7.1%13.6 7.1%2010 75.8H 39.7%H75.8H 39.7%H2010 2.8 1.5%2.8 1.5%2010 53.3 27.9%53.3 27.9%bn m 3 PJ bn m 3PJbn m 3 PJ bn m 3PJbn m 3 PJ bn m 3PJbn m 3 PJ bn m 3PJ200948018,24948018,2492009311M11,836M 31111,8362009732,783732,783200963324,06963324,069205066625,308843,176205072427,5121174,444205053020,135200H7,586H205091334,678782,949m 3 m 3m 3 m 3m 3 m 3m 3 m 3200986586520091,5321,5322009555520091,870H1,870H20501,110139M20502,022327H205040615320502,817H239113.944.155.916.632.08.236.516.020.14.15.512.16.517.310.921.018.88.814.96.343.35.217.7GLOBALREFE[R]tn m tn m 3 %3 %2010 191 100% 191 100%PJbn m 3 bn m 3200920502,8294,381107,498166,4892,829936PJ107,49835,55720092050m 3 m 34154154781018AFRICAREFtn m 3 %E[R]tn m 3 %INDIAREFtn m 3 %E[R]tn m 3 %7.0NON-OECD ASIAREFtn m 3 %E[R]tn m 3 %5.8OECD ASIA OCEANIAREFE[R]tn m 3 % tn m 3 %energy resources & security of supply | GAS2010 14.7M 7.7%M14.7M 7.7%M2010 1.5L 0.8%L1.5L 0.8%L2010 8.7 4.5%8.7 4.5%2010 3.3 1.7%3.3 1.7%bn m 3 PJ bn m 3PJbn m 3 PJ bn m 3PJbn m 3 PJ bn m 3PJbn m 3 PJ bn m 3PJ2009913,452913,452200953L2,005L53L2,005L20091786,7571786,75720091586,0191586,01920502298,697692,60420502549,63797M3,700M2050436M16,561M 1023,8642050211L8,020L61L2,302Lm 3 m 3m 3 m 3m 3 m 3m 3 m 320099191200944L44L20091701702009789M789M2050104L31L20501505820503027020501,095M314CO2 EMISSIONSFROM GAScomparison betweenthe REF and E[R]scenario 2009 - 2050billion tonnesSOURCE GPI/ERECRESERVES AND CONSUMPTIONgas reserves versus global demand, productionand consumption. global consumption comparisonbetween the REF and E[R] scenario.billion cubic metresSOURCE 1970-2011 BP, 2009-2050 GPI/ERECREF global consumptionE[R] global consumption1592520151050200920152020203020402050BILLION TONNES5,0004,0003,000191TRILLIONCUBIC METRESPROVEN 2010E[R]2,0001,000019721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020152020203020402050BILLION m 3REFE[R]TRILLIONCUBICMETRESUSED SINCE2009111REFTRILLIONCUBICMETRESUSED SINCE2009YEARS 2009 - 2050YEARS 1972 - 2009 PASTYEARS 2009 - 2050 FUTUREDESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.215

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmap 8.3: coal reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioWORLDWIDE SCENARIO12535342039210258energy resources & security of supply | COALOECD NORTH AMERICAREFE[R]mn t % mn t %1321LATIN AMERICAREFmn t %E[R]mn t %NON RENEWABLE RESOURCE2009 245,088 28.6%H Hmn t PJ2009 1,701 21,335245,088 28.6%H Hmn t PJ1,701 21,3352009 12,508 1.5%mn t PJ2009 37 73712,508 1.5%mn t PJ37 73720501,145M 21,9631483,4052050801,74138873COAL20092050t2.01.6t2.00.220092050t0.10.1t0.10.1MLEGEND>60 50-60 40-5030-40 20-30 10-20REFE[R]REFERENCE SCENARIOENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO17515012510090$ PER TONNECOSTcoal prices 1988 - 2009and future predictions forthe E[R] scenario.$ per tonneSOURCE MCCLOSKEY COALINFORMATION SERVICE - EUROPE.PLATTS - US.E[R]REF5-10 0-5 % RESOURCESGLOBALLY0 1000 KM8070TRADE FLOWS (MILLION TONNES)RESERVES TOTAL MILLION TONNES [mn t] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2011]CONSUMPTION PER REGION MILLION TONNES [mn t] | PETA JOULE [PJ]CONSUMPTION PER PERSON TONNES [t]605040302010JAPAN STEAM COALNW EUROPEUS CENTRAL APPALACHIANH HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST01988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720152020203020402050YEARS 1988 - 2009 PASTYEARS 2009 - 2050 FUTURE216

OECD EUROPEMIDDLE EASTCHINAEAST EUROPE/EURASIAREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]mn t %mn t %mn t %mn t %mn t %mn t %mn t %mn t %2011 80,121M9.4%M80,121 9.4%M2009 1,203L 0.1%L1,203L 0.1%L2009 114,500 13.4%114,500 13.4%2009 224,483 26.2%224,483 26.2%mn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJ200998013,134M 98013,134M20096L134L613420092,840H65,408H2,840H65,408H20095689,3205689,32020506309,4173887420505L116L2863720504,178H96,223H188H4,334H205084612,1841423,274tttttttt20091.01.020090.0L0.020092.1H2.120091.2M1.220500.70.1M20500.0L0.0L20503.2H0.1M20501.6M0.4H5432 1252019GLOBAL264REFmn t %2009 856,630 100%E[R]mn t %856,630 100%mn tPJmn tPJ2200920507,80810,880142,460226,2457,808846142,46019,484AFRICAREFmn t %42E[R]mn t %INDIAREFmn t %118E[R]mn t %24NON-OECD ASIAREFmn t %268E[R]mn t %tt200920500.91.10.90.1OECD ASIA OCEANIAREFE[R]mn t % mn t %8energy resources & security of supply | COAL2009 31,692 3.7%31,692 3.7%2009 60,600 7.1%M60,600 7.1%M2009 8,988 1.0%8,988 1.0%2009 77,447 9%77,447 9%mn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJmn tPJ20091924,4141924,4142009593M13,084593M13,08420093745,6583745,65820095179,2365179,236205058613,4934092120501,81939,343122M2,80320501,19923,445M 761,754M20503928,31926L607Ltttttttt20090.20.220090.50.520090.20.220092.02.020500.30.0L20501.0M0.1M20500.70.1M20501.90.1MCO2 EMISSIONSFROM COALcomparison betweenthe REF and E[R]scenarios 2009 - 2050billion tonnesSOURCE GPI/EREC252015105BILLION TONNES0200920152020203020402050REFE[R]13,00012,00011,00010,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000RESERVES AND CONSUMPTIONcoal reserves versus global demand, productionand consumption. global consumption comparisonbetween the REF and E[R] scenarios.million tonnesSOURCE 1970-2050 GPI/EREC, 1970-2011 BP.REF global consumptionE[R] global consumption857REFBILLIONTONNESPROVEN201101972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072009201020152020203020402050MILLION TONNESE[R]359BILLIONTONNESUSED SINCE2009159BILLIONTONNESUSED SINCE2009YEARS 2009 - 2050YEARS 1970 - 2009 PASTYEARS 2009 - 2050 FUTUREDESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.217

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmap 8.4: water demand for thermal power generationWORLDWIDE SCENARIOLEGENDREF REFERENCE SCENARIOE[R] ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIOOECD NORTH AMERICABillion cubic meters per year141210864202009 2020 2050energy resources & security of supply | WATER8WORLDBillion cubic meters per year3002502001501005002009 2020 2050THERMAL POWERREF REFERENCE SCENARIO (FUEL PRODUCTION)E[R] ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO (FUEL PRODUCTION)OECD LATIN AMERICABillion cubic meters per year8765432102009 2020 2050WATERThe Energy [R]evolution is the first global energy scenario to quantifythe water needs of different energy pathways. The water footprint ofthermal power generation and fuel production is estimated by taking theproduction levels in each scenario and multiplying by technologyspecificwater consumption factors. Water consumption factors forpower generation technologies are taken from U.S. Department ofEnergy and University of Texas and adjusted for projected regionspecificthermal efficiencies of different operating power plant types. iWater footprints of coal, oil and gas extraction are based on data fromWuppertal Institute, complemented by estimates of water footprint ofunconventional fossil fuels as well as first and second generationtransport biofuels. ii As a detailed regional breakdown of fuel productionby region is not available for the reference scenario, the water footprintof fuel production is only estimated on the global level.Benefits of the Energy [R]evolution for water:• Electric technologies with low to no water requirements – energyefficiency, wind and solar PV – substituted for thermal powergeneration with high water impacts.• Reduced water use and contamination from fossil fuel production:no need for unconventional fossil fuels; lowered consumption ofconventional coal and oil.• Bioenergy is based on waste-derived biomass and cellulosic biomassrequiring no irrigation (no food for fuel). As a result, water intensity ofbiomass use is a fraction of that in IEA scenarios.• Energy efficiency programmes reduce water consumption inbuildings and industry.218

OECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE EURASIABillion cubic meters per year8765432102009 2020 2050AFRICABillion cubic meters per yearMIDDLE EASTBillion cubic meters per year5432102009 2020 2050Billion cubic meters per year65432102009 2020 205065432102009 2020 2050INDIABillion cubic meters per yearCHINABillion cubic meters per year302520151050141210864202009 2020 20502009 2020 2050NON OECD ASIABillion cubic meters per year8765432102009 2020 2050OECD ASIA OCEANIABillion cubic meters per year65432102009 2020 20508energy resources & security of supply | WATER• Rapid CO2 emission reductions protect water resources fromcatastrophic climate change.Global water consumption for power generation and fuel production hasalmost doubled in the past two decades, and the trend is projected tocontinue. The OECD predicts that in a business-as-usual scenario, thepower sector would consume 25% of the world’s water in 2050 and beresponsible for more than half of additional demand. iii The Energy[R]evolution pathway would halt the rise in water demand for energy,mitigating the pressures and conflicts on the world’s already stressedwater resources. Approximately 90 billion cubic meters of water wouldbe saved in fuel production and thermal power generation by 2030,enough to satisfy the water needs of 1.3 billion urban dwellers, or toirrigate enough fields to produce 50 million tonnes of grain, equal to theaverage direct consumption of 300-500 million people. ivreferencesiiiiiiivNATIONAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY 2009: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR EXISTING ANDEMERGING THERMOELECTRIC PLANT TECHNOLOGIES. US DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY. AUGUST 2008(APRIL 2009 REVISION); U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 2006: ENERGY DEMANDS ON WATERRESOURCES. REPORT TO CONGRESS ON THE INTERDEPENDENCY OF ENERGY AND WATER.UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS & ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND 2009: ENERGY‐WATER NEXUS INTEXAS.WUPPERTAL INSTITUT: MATERIAL INTENSITY OF MATERIALS, FUELS, TRANSPORT SERVICES,FOOD. HTTP://WWW.WUPPERINST.ORG/UPLOADS/TX_WIBEITRAG/MIT_2011.PDF; WORLDECONOMIC FORUM 2009: ENERGY VISION UPDATE 2009. THIRSTY ENERGY; HARTO ET AL: LIFECYCLE WATER CONSUMPTION OF ALTERNATIVE, LOW-CARBON TRANSPORTATION ENERGYSOURCES. FUNDED BY ARIZONA WATER INSTITUTE.OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2050: THE CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION.HTTP://WWW.OECD.ORG/DOCUMENT/11/0,3746,EN_2649_37465_49036555_1_1_1_37465,00.HTMLUSING TYPICAL URBAN RESIDENTIAL WATER CONSUMPTION OF 200 LITERS/PERSON/DAY.AVERAGE GRAIN CONSUMPTION RANGES FROM 8 KG/PERSON/MONTH (US) TO 14 (INDIA).DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.219

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKtable 8.3: assumptions on fossil fuel use in the energy [r]evolution scenarioFOSSIL FUEL200920152020203020402050OilReference (PJ/a)Reference (million barrels/a)E[R] (PJ/a)E[R] (million barrels/a)151,16824,701151,16824,701167,15927,314151,99624,836173,23628,306133,71221,848185,99330,39195,16915,550197,52232,27553,0308,665211,36534,53729,9424,893energy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELS8GasReference (PJ/a)Reference (billion cubic metres = 10E9m/a)E[R] (PJ/a)E[R] (billion cubic metres = 10E9m/a)CoalReference (PJ/a)Reference (million tonnes)E[R] (PJ/a)E[R] (million tonnes)8.4 nuclear107,4982,829107,4982,829142,4607,808142,4607,808Uranium, the fuel used in nuclear power plants, is a finiteresource whose economically available reserves are limited. Itsdistribution is almost as concentrated as oil and does not matchglobal consumption. Five countries - Canada, Australia,Kazakhstan, Russia and Niger - control three quarters of theworld’s supply. As a significant user of uranium, however, Russia’sreserves will be exhausted within ten years.Secondary sources, such as old deposits, currently make up nearlyhalf of worldwide uranium reserves. However, these will soon beused up. Mining capacities will have to be nearly doubled in thenext few years to meet current needs.121,0673,186120,8613,181169,3308,957154,9328,197131,6823,465124,0693,265186,7429,633142,8337,119155,4124,090106,2282,795209,19510,349105,2194,707179,8784,73473,4521,933224,48710,87958,7322,556195,8045,15335,557936226,24510,88019,484846A joint report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and theInternational Atomic Energy Agency 76 estimates that all existingnuclear power plants will have used up their nuclear fuel,employing current technology, within less than 70 years. Giventhe range of scenarios for the worldwide development of nuclearpower, it is likely that uranium supplies will be exhaustedsometime between 2026 and 2070. This forecast includes the useof mixed oxide fuel (MOX), a mixture of uranium and plutonium.220reference76 ‘URANIUM 2003: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND’.

image THE BIOENERGY VILLAGE OF JUEHNDE,WHICH IS THE FIRST COMMUNITY IN GERMANY THATPRODUCES ALL ITS ENERGY NEEDED FOR HEATINGAND ELECTRICITY WITH CO2 NEUTRAL BIOMASS.© PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP8.5 renewable energyNature offers a variety of freely available options for producingenergy. Their exploitation is mainly a question of how to convertsunlight, wind, biomass or water into electricity, heat or power asefficiently, sustainably and cost-effectively as possible.box 8.1: definition of types of energyresource potential 77Theoretical potential The physical upper limit of the energyavailable from a certain source. For solar energy, forexample, this would be the total solar radiation falling on aparticular surface.Conversion potential This is derived from the annualefficiency of the respective conversion technology. It istherefore not a strictly defined value, since the efficiency ofa particular technology depends on technological progress.Technical potential This takes into account additionalrestrictions regarding the area that is realistically availablefor energy generation. Technological, structural andecological restrictions, as well as legislative requirements,are accounted for.Economic potential The proportion of the technical potentialthat can be utilised economically. For biomass, for example,those quantities are included that can be exploitedeconomically in competition with other products and land uses.Sustainable potential This limits the potential of an energysource based on evaluation of ecological and socioeconomicfactors.table 8.4: renewable energy theoretical potentialOn average, the energy in the sunshine that reaches the earth isabout one kilowatt per square metre worldwide. According to theIPCC Special Report Renewables (SRREN) 78 solar power is arenewable energy source gushing out at 7,900 times more thanthe energy currently needed in the world. In one day, the sunlightwhich reaches the earth produces enough energy to satisfy theworld’s current energy requirements for twenty years, even beforeother renewable energy sources such as wind and ocean energyare taken into account. Even though only a percentage of thatpotential is technically accessible, this is still enough to provideup to ten times more energy than the world currently requires.Before looking at the part renewable energies can play in therange of scenarios in this report, it is worth understanding theupper limits of their regional potential and by when this potentialcan be exploited.The overall technical potential of renewable energy is huge andseveral times higher than current total energy demand. Technicalpotential is defined as the amount of renewable energy outputobtainable by full implementation of demonstrated technologiesor practices that are likely to develop. It takes into account theprimary resources, the socio-geographical constraints and thetechnical losses in the conversion process. Calculating renewableenergy potentials is highly complex because these technologiesare comparatively young and their exploitation involves changesto the way in which energy is both generated and distributed. Thetechnical potential is dependent on a number of uncertainties,e.g. a technology breakthrough, for example, could have adramatic impact, changing the technical potential assessmentwithin a very short time frame. Further, because of the speed oftechnology change, many existing studies are based on out of dateinformation. More recent data, e.g. significantly increasedaverage wind turbine capacity and output, would increase thetechnical potentials still further.8energy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELS, NUCLEARREANNUAL FLUX (EJ/a)RATIO(ANNUAL ENERGY FLUX/2008 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY)TOTAL RESERVEBio energySolar energyGeothermal energyHydro powerOcean energyWind energy1,5483,900,0001,4001477,4006,0003.17,9002.80.31512------references77 WBGU (GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON GLOBAL CHANGE).78 IPCC, 2011: IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGEMITIGATION. PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATECHANGE [O. EDENHOFER, R. PICHS-MADRUGA, Y. SOKONA, K. SEYBOTH, P. MATSCHOSS, S. KADNER, T.ZWICKEL, P. EICKEMEIER, G. HANSEN, S. SCHLÖMER, C. VON STECHOW (EDS)]. CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITYPRESS, CAMBRIDGE, UNITED KINGDOM AND NEW YORK, NY, USA, 1075 PP.221

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmap 8.5: solar reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioWORLDWIDE SCENARIONEEDED SOLAR AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION95,555 KM 2 NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO8energy resources & security of supply | SOLARSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION21,043 KM 2OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICARENEWABLE RESOURCE2009REF% PJ0.07 78ME[R]% PJ2009REF% PJ0.08M 17E[R]% PJ20501.491,862H36 26,54320501.12M45620 5,845SOLAR20092050kWh48896HkWh12,395H20092050kWh10211kWh2,691LEGENDGlobal Horizontal IrradianceREFE[R]REFERENCE SCENARIOENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIOPRODUCTION PER REGION % OF GLOBAL SHARE | PETA JOULE [PJ]PRODUCTION PER PERSON KILOWATT HOUR [kWh]H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST0 1000 KM222

OECD EUROPEMIDDLE EASTCHINAEAST EUROPE/EURASIAREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ20090.15M11520090.02520090.31H302H20090.01L3L20501.84H1,49525 11,64920500.7537844H 12,19020500.721,30529M 29,888H20500.09L64L9L 3,544LkWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWh200959M200972009632009220507225,395M2050297M9,45820502546,3622050573,038NEEDED SOLAR AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION12,757 KM 2NEEDED SOLAR AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION41,936 KM 2NEEDED SOLAR AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION107,598 KM 2GLOBALREFE[R]43,884 KM 258,060 KM 2 2009 0.13 626200926NEEDED SOLAR AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION2050 0.96 7,718NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO 44,105 KM 240,626 KM 2 kWhSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION2050234NEEDED SOLAR AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGIONNEEDED SOLAR AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION17,194 KM 2SOLAR AREA NEEDED TOSUPPORT THE GLOBALE[R] 2050 SCENARIOAFRICA482,758 KM 2 NEEDED SOLAR AREA TOINDIANON-OECD ASIA% PJ% PJOECD ASIA OCEANIA28 134,099kWh4,0628energy resources & security of supply | SOLARREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ20090.01L3L20090.02620090.02520090.248720501.26707M37 16,12820500.2318225 12,252M20500.4230924 11,28520501.5457921 4,776kWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWh20091L20091L20091L2009120H2050982,044205031L2,011L2050572,16920508946,88510,0009,0008,0007,000PRODUCTIONcomparison betweenthe REF and E[R]scenarios 2009 - 2050[electricity]TWh/aSOURCE GPI/EREC23.28%5,0004,5004,0003,500CAPACITYcomparison betweenthe REF and E[R]scenarios 2009 - 2050[electricity]GWSOURCE GPI/EREC400,000350,000300,000PRODUCTIONcomparison betweenthe REF and E[R]scenarios 2009 - 2050[primary energy]PJSOURCE GPI/EREC63%82%E[R] renewables% renewable shareE[R] solar% total solar shareREF renewables% renewable shareREF solar6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0001.85%REF - PV2.54%5000.69%0.03%REF - CSP0 0.03%0.51% 1.13% 1.53%0.27%02009TWh/a20152020YEARS 2009 - 205020308.66%204017.23%2050E[R] pv/concentrating solarpower plants (CSP)REF pv/concentrating solarpower plants (CSP)% total solar share3,0002,5002,0001,5001,0002009GW20152020YEARS 2009 - 2050E[R] - PV20302040E[R] - CSP2050250,000200,000150,000100,00050,00002009PJ14%14%0.1%0.1%17%201514%0.9%0.2%23%2020YEARS 2009 - 205014%3%0.3%203041%14%9%0.5%204015%19%0.7%205028%16%1%% total solar shareDESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.MAP DEVELOPED BY 3TIER. WWW.3TIER.COM. © 2011 3TIER INC.223

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmap 8.6: wind reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenarioWORLDWIDE SCENARIONEEDED WIND AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION202,171 KM 2 NEEDED WIND AREA TO8energy resources & security of supply | WINDOECD NORTH AMERICASUPPORT ENTIRE REGION51,659 KM 2LATIN AMERICARENEWABLE RESOURCE2009REF% PJ0.26 286E[R]% PJ2009REF% PJ0.03 7E[R]% PJ20501.722,15712 9,00120500.652669 2,683WIND20092050kWh1771,038kWh4,20320092050kWh4123kWh1,235LEGEND5km wind map - Mean wind speed at 80m14,00013,00012,00011,00010,00032.88%33.37%PRODUCTIONcomparison betweenthe REF and E[R]scenarios 2009 - 2050[electricity]TWh9,000SOURCE GWEC8,0007,000TWh/a23.94%E[R] windREFE[R]REFERENCE SCENARIOENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO6,0005,0004,000REF wind% REF total wind sharePRODUCTION PER REGION % OF GLOBAL SHARE | PETA JOULE [PJ]3,00011.61%5.87%PRODUCTION PER PERSON KILOWATT HOUR [kWh]H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST 0 1000 KM2,0001,00005.52%1.51% 3.28%1.36%2009201020203.96%20304.82%20405.4%2050YEARS 2009 - 2050224

OECD EUROPEMIDDLE EASTCHINAEAST EUROPE/EURASIAREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ20090.65H485H20090.00L1L20090.10M97M20090.00220503.57H2,894H12 5,34720500.26L133L10M 2,71820501.522,75611 11,284H20500.5236016H 5,884kWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWh2009250H20091L2009202009220501,399H2,47620501052,1092050537M2,402M20503225,044HNEEDED WIND AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGIONNEEDED WIND AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION155,284 KM 2103,215 KM 2 WIND AREA NEEDED TONEEDED WIND AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION227,780 KM 2GLOBALREFE[R]NEEDED WIND AREA TONEEDED WIND AREA TO2050 1.27 10,21939,910 KM 2 SUPPORT ENTIRE REGIONkWh56,680 KM 2 200942NEEDED WIND AREA TO2050310SUPPORT ENTIRE REGIONNEEDED WIND AREA TO67,076 KM 2SUPPORT ENTIRE REGIONSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION95,576 KM 2 NEEDED WIND AREA TOSUPPORT ENTIRE REGION47,857 KM 2AFRICAINDIANON-OECD ASIA2009% PJ0.20 983% PJSUPPORT THE GLOBALE[R] 2050 SCENARIO1,047,209 KM 2OECD ASIA OCEANIA10 49,571kWh1,5028energy resources & security of supply | WINDREFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]REFE[R]% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ% PJ20090.02620090.226520090.01320090.093220500.321815L 2,207L20500.554937 3,30020500.79583M10M 4,590M20501.06M39611 2,556kWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWhkWh2009220091520091L200945M205025L280L205085542205010788220506123,6865,5005,0004,5004,0003,500CAPACITYcomparison betweenthe REF and E[R]scenarios 2009 - 2050[electricity]GWSOURCE GPI/GWECE[R] windREF wind400,000350,000300,000250,000PJPRODUCTIONcomparison betweenthe REF and E[R]scenarios 2009 - 2050[primary energy]PJSOURCE GPI/GWEC63%82%E[R] renewables% renewable shareE[R] wind% total wind shareREF renewables% renewable shareREF wind% total wind share3,0002,500GW200,00041%2,0001,500150,000100,00017%23%14%14%15%16%1,000500050,000014%14%0.2%0.2%14%0.9%0.5%2%0.7%4.8%0.9%7.7%1.1%10.3%1.3%200920102020203020402050200920152020203020402050YEARS 2009 - 2050YEARS 2009 - 2050DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.MAP DEVELOPED BY 3TIER. WWW.3TIER.COM. © 2011 3TIER INC.225

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKenergy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELS8A wide range of estimates is provided in the literature but studieshave consistently found that the total global technical potentialfor renewable energy is substantially higher than both current andprojected future global energy demand. Solar has the highesttechnical potential amongst the renewable sources, but substantialtechnical potential exists for all forms. (SRREN, May 2011)Taking into account the uncertainty of technical potential estimates,Figure 8.1 provides an overview of the technical potential of variousrenewable energy resources in the context of current globalelectricity and heat demand as well as global primary energy supply.Issues related to technology evolution, sustainability, resourceavailability, land use and other factors that relate to this technicalpotential are explored in the relevant chapters. The regionaldistribution of technical potential is addressed in map 8.7.The various types of energy cannot necessarily be added togetherto estimate a total, because each type was estimatedindependently of the others (for example, the assessment did nottake into account land use allocation; e.g. PV and concentratingsolar power cannot occupy the same space even though aparticular site is suitable for either of them).Given the large unexploited resources which exist, even withouthaving reached the full development limits of the varioustechnologies, the technical potential is not a limiting factor toexpansion of renewable energy generation. It will not benecessary nor desirable to exploit the entire technical potential.figure 8.1: ranges of global technical potentials of renewable energy sourcesglobal technical potential [EJ/yr, log scale]100,00010,0001,000100100RANGE OF ESTIMATESSUMMARISED IN IPCCREPORT CHAPTERS 2-7Global electricitydemand, 2008: 61 EJElectricityMAXIMUMMINIMUMImplementation of renewable energies must respect sustainabilitycriteria in order to achieve a sound future energy supply. Publicacceptance is crucial, especially bearing in mind that renewableenergy technologies will be closer to consumers than today’smore centralised power plants. Without public acceptance, marketexpansion will be difficult or even impossible.In addition to the theoretical and technical potential discussions,this report also considers the economic potential of renewableenergy sources that takes into account all social costs andassumes perfect information and the market potential ofrenewable energy sources. Market potential is often used indifferent ways. The general understanding is that market potentialmeans the total amount of renewable energy that can beimplemented in the market taking into account existing andexpected real-world market conditions shaped by policies,availability of capital and other factors. The market potentialmay therefore in theory be larger than the economic potential. Tobe realistic, however, market potential analyses have to take intoaccount the behaviour of private economic agents under specificprevailing conditions, which are of course partly shaped by publicauthorities. The energy policy framework in a particular countryor region will have a profound impact on the expansion ofrenewable energies.Global heat demand,2008: 164 EJHeatGlobal primary energysupply, 2008: 492 EJPrimary EnergyGEOTHERMALENERGY1,109118HYDROPOWEROCEANENERGY3317WINDENERGY58085GEOTHERMALENERGY31210BIOMASSDIRECT SOLARENERGY49,8371,575Max (in EJ/yr)Min (in EJ/yr)525050050sourceIPCC/SRREN.noteRANGES OF GLOBAL TECHNICAL POTENTIALS OF RE SOURCES DERIVED FROM STUDIES PRESENTED IN CHAPTERS 2 THROUGH 7 IN THE IPCC REPORT. BIOMASS AND SOLAR ARE SHOWN AS PRIMARY ENERGY DUE TO THEIRMULTIPLE USES. NOTE THAT THE FIGURE IS PRESENTED IN LOGARITHMIC SCALE DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE OF ASSESSED DATA.226

sourceIPCC/SRREN. RE POTENTIAL ANALYSIS: TECHNICAL RE POTENTIALS REPORTED HERE REPRESENT TOTAL WORLDWIDE AND REGIONAL POTENTIALS BASED ON A REVIEW OF STUDIES PUBLISHED BEFORE 2009 BY KREWITT ET AL. (2009). THEY DO NOT DEDUCT ANY POTENTIAL THATIS ALREADY BEING UTILIZED FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION. DUE TO METHODOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES AND ACCOUNTING METHODS AMONG STUDIES, STRICT COMPARABILITY OF THESE ESTIMATES ACROSS TECHNOLOGIES AND REGIONS, AS WELL AS TO PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND, ISNOT POSSIBLE. TECHNICAL RE POTENTIAL ANALYSES PUBLISHED AFTER 2009 SHOW HIGHER RESULTS IN SOME CASES BUT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS FIGURE. HOWEVER, SOME RE TECHNOLOGIES MAY COMPETE FOR LAND WHICH COULD LOWER THE OVERALL RE POTENTIAL.SCENARIO DATA: IEA WEO 2009 REFERENCE SCENARIO (INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA), 2009; TESKE ET AL., 2010), REMIND-RECIPE 450PPM STABILIZATION SCENARIO (LUDERER ET AL., 2009), MINICAM EMF22 1ST-BEST 2.6 W/2 OVERSHOOT SCENARIO (CALVIN ET AL.,2009), ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION 2010 (TESKE ET AL., 2010.0-2.5 2.6-5.0 5.1-7.5 7.6-10 10-12.5 12.6-15 15.1-17.5 17.6-20 20.1-22.5 22.6-25 25-50 over 50World 11,941 EJ/yMap: Technical REPotential can supplythe 2007 primary energydemand by a factor of:Bio energyOceanHydroX EJ/yGeothermalWind761 EJ/y5,360 EJ/y1,911 EJ/ySolarTotal Technical RE Potentialin EJ/y for 2050 byrenewable energy source:1,335 EJ/y464 EJ/y193 EJ/y306 EJ/y864 EJ/y193 EJ/y 571 EJ/ymap 8.7: regional renewable energy potential8energy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELS, NUCLEAR227

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKenergy resources and security of supply | BIOMASS IN THE 2012 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION88.6 biomass in the 2012 energy [r]evolution(4th edition)The 2012 Energy [R]evolution (4th edn.) is an energy scenariowhich shows a possible pathway for the global energy system tomove from fossil fuels dominated supply towards energy efficiencyand sustainable renewable energy use. The aim is to only usesustainable bio energy and reduce the use of unsustainable bioenergy in developing countries which is currently in the range of30 to 40 EJ/a. The fourth edition of the Energy [R]evolutionagain decreases the amount of bio energy used significantly dueto sustainability reasons, and the lack of global environmentaland social standards. The amount of bio energy used in thisreport is based on bio energy potential surveys which are drawnfrom existing studies, but not necessarily reflecting all theecological assumptions that Greenpeace would use. It is intendedas a coarse-scale, “order-of-magnitude” example of what theenergy mix would look like in the future (2050) with largelyphased-out fossil fuels. The rationale underpinning the use ofbiomass in the 2012 Energy [R]evolution is explained here butnote the amount of bio energy used in the Energy [R]evolutiondoes not mean that Greenpeace per se agrees to the amountwithout strict criteria.The Energy [R]evolution takes a precautionary approach to thefuture use of bioenergy. This reflects growing concerns about thegreenhouse gas balance of many biofuel sources, and also the risksposed by expanded bio fuels crop production to biodiversity(forests, wetlands and grasslands) and food security. It should bestressed, however, that this conservative approach is based on anassessment of today’s technologies and their associated risks. Thedevelopment of advanced forms of bio energies which do notinvolve significant land take, are demonstrably sustainable in termsof their impacts on the wider environment, and have cleargreenhouse gas benefits, should be an objective of public policy, andwould provide additional flexibility in the renewable energy mix.All energy production has some impact on the environment. Whatis important is to minimize the impact on the environment,through reduction in energy usage, increased efficiency andcareful choice of renewable energy sources. Different sources ofenergy have different impacts and these impacts can varyenormously with scale. Hence, a range of energy sources areneeded, each with its own limits of what is sustainable.Biomass is part of the mix of a wide variety of sustainable energiesthat, together, provide a practical and possible means to eliminateour dependency on fossil fuels. Thereby we can minimize greenhousegas emissions, especially from fossil carbon, from energy production.Concerns have also been raised about how countries account for theemissions associated with biofuels production and combustion. Thelifecycle emissions of different biofuels can vary enormously. Toensure that biofuels are produced and used in ways which maximizeits greenhouse gas saving potential, these accounting problems willneed to be resolved in future. The Energy [R]evolution prioritisesnon-combustion resources (wind, solar etc.). Greenpeace does notconsider biomass as carbon, or greenhouse gas, neutral because ofthe time biomass takes to regrow and because of emissions arisingfrom direct and indirect land use changes. The Energy [R]evolutionscenario is an energy scenario, therefore only energy related CO2emissions are calculated and no other GHG emissions can becovered, e.g. from agricultural practices. However, the Energy[R]evolution summarizes the entire amount of bio energy used inthe energy model and indicates possible additional emissionsconnected to the use of biofuels. As there are many scientificpublications about the GHG emission effects of bio energy whichvary between carbon neutral to higher CO2 emissions than fossilfuels a range is given in the Energy [R]evolution.Bioenergy in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is largely limitedto that which can be gained from wood processing andagricultural (crop harvest and processing) residues as well asfrom discarded wood products. The amounts are based on existingstudies, some of which apply sustainability criteria but do notnecessarily reflect all Greenpeace’s sustainability criteria. Largescalebiomass from forests would not be sustainable. 79 The Energy[R]evolution recognises that there are competing uses forbiomass, e.g. maintaining soil fertility, use of straw as animal feedand bedding, use of woodchip in furniture and does not use thefull potential. Importantly, the use of biomass in the 2012 Energy[R]evolution has been developed within the context ofGreenpeace’s broader Bioenergy Position to minimize and avoidthe growth of bio energy and in order to prevent use ofunsustainable bio energy. The Energy [R]evolution uses the latestavailable bio energy technologies for power and heat generation,as well as transport systems. These technologies can use differenttypes of fuel and bio gas is preferred due to higher conversionefficiencies. Therefore the primary source for bio mass is not fixedand can be changed over time. Of course, any individual bioenergyproject developed in reality needs to be thoroughly researched toensure our sustainability criteria are met.Greenpeace supports the most efficient use of biomass in stationaryapplications. For example, the use of agricultural and woodprocessing residues in, preferably regional and efficient cogenerationpower plants, such as CHP (combined heat and power plants).228reference79 SCHULZE, E-D., KÖRNER, C., LAW, B.E .HABERL, H. & LUYSSAERT, S. 2012. LARGE-SCALE BIOENERGYFROM ADDITIONAL HARVEST OF FOREST BIOMASS IS NEITHER SUSTAINABLE NOR GREENHOUSE GASNEUTRAL. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY BIOENERGY DOI: 10.1111/J.1757-1707.2012.01169.X.

image THE BIOENERGY VILLAGE OF JUEHNDE WHICH WAS THE FIRST COMMUNITYIN GERMANY TO PRODUCE ALL ITS ENERGY NEEDED FOR HEATING ANDELECTRICITY, WITH CO2 NEUTRAL BIOMASS.image A NEWLY DEFORESTED AREA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEARED FORAGRICULTURAL EXPANSION IN THE AMAZON, BRAZIL.© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP© GP/RODRIGO BALÉIA8.6.1 how much biomassRoughly 55 EJ/a of bio energy was used globally in 2011 80(approximately 10% of the world’s energy 81 ). The Energy[R]evolution assumes an increase to 80 EJ/a. in 2050. Currently,much biomass is used in low-efficiency traditional uses andcharcoal. 82 The Energy [R]evolution assumes an increase in theefficiency of biomass usage for energy globally by 2050. Inaddition to efficiencies in burning, there are potentially betteruses of local biogas plants from manure (in developing countriesat least), better recovery of residues not suitable as feed and anincrease in food production using ecological agriculture. TheEnergy [R]evolution assumes biofuels will only be used for heavytrucks, marine transport and – after 2035 – to a limited extentfor aviation. In those sectors, there are currently no othertechnologies available – apart from some niche technologieswhich are not proven yet and therefore the only option to replaceoil. No import/export of biomass between regions (e.g. Canadaand Europe) is required for the Energy [R]evolution.In the 2012 Energy [R]evolution, the bioenergy potential has notbeen broken down into various sources, because different forms ofbioenergy (e.g. solid, gas, fluid) and technical developmentcontinues so the relative contribution of sources is variable.Dedicated biomass crops are not excluded, but are limited tocurrent amounts of usage. Similarly, 10 % of current treeplantations are already used for bioenergy 83 , and the Energy[R]evolution assumes the same usage.There have been several studies on the availability of biomass forenergy production and the consequences for sustainability. Beloware brief details of examples of such studies on available biomass.These are not Greenpeace studies, but serve to illustrate the rangeof estimates available and their principal considerations.The Energy [R]evolution estimate of 80 EJ/yr is at the low endof the spectrum of estimates of available biomass. The Energy[R]evolution doesn’t differentiate between forest and agriculturalresidues as there is too much uncertainty regarding the amountsavailable regionally now and in the future.box 8.2: what is an exajoule?• One exajoule is a billion billion joules• One exajoule is about equal to the energy content of 30million tons of coal. It takes 60 million tons of drybiomass to generate one exajoule.• Global energy use in 2009 was approximately 500 EJ8energy resources and security of supply | BIOMASS IN THE 2012 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONreferences80 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 2011. WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2011HTTP://WWW.WORLDENERGYOUTLOOK.ORG/PUBLICATIONS/WEO-2011/81 IPCC, 2011: IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGEMITIGATION. PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATECHANGE [O. EDENHOFER, R. PICHS-MADRUGA, Y. SOKONA, K. SEYBOTH, P. MATSCHOSS, S. KADNER, T.ZWICKEL, P. EICKEMEIER, G. HANSEN, S. SCHLÖMER, C. VON STECHOW (EDS)]. CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITYPRESS, CAMBRIDGE, UNITED KINGDOM AND NEW YORK, NY, USA.82 IPCC, 2011: IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGEMITIGATION. PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATECHANGE [O. EDENHOFER, R. PICHS-MADRUGA, Y. SOKONA, K. SEYBOTH, P. MATSCHOSS, S. KADNER, T.ZWICKEL, P. EICKEMEIER, G. HANSEN, S. SCHLÖMER, C. VON STECHOW (EDS)]. CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITYPRESS, CAMBRIDGE, UNITED KINGDOM AND NEW YORK, NY, USA.83 FAO 2010. WHAT WOODFUELS CAN DO TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE. FAO FORESTRY PAPER 162. FAO,ROME . HTTP://WWW.FAO.ORG/DOCREP/013/I1756E/I1756E00.PDF229

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKenergy resources and security of supply | BIOMASS IN THE 2012 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION8Current studies estimating the amount of biomassgive the following ranges:• IPCC (2011) pg. 223. Estimates “From the expert review ofavailable scientific literature, potential deployment levels ofbiomass for energy by 2050 could be in the range of 100 to300 EJ. However, there are large uncertainties in this potentialsuch as market and policy conditions, and it strongly dependson the rate of improvement in the production of food andfodder as well as wood and pulp products.”• WWF (2011) Ecofys Energy Scenario (for WWF) found a2050 total potential of 209 EJ per year with a share ofwaste/residue-based bioenergy of 101 EJ per year (for 2050),a quarter of which is agricultural residues like cereal straw.Other major sources include wet waste/residues like sugar beet/potato, oil palm, sugar cane/cassava processing residues ormanure (35 EJ), wood processing residues and wood waste (20EJ) and non-recyclable renewable dry municipal solid waste(11 EJ). 84 However, it’s not always clear how some of thenumbers were calculated.• Beringer et al. (2011) estimate a global bioenergy potential of130-270 EJ per year in 2050 of which 100 EJ per year iswaste/residue based. 85• WBGU (2009) estimate a global bioenergy potential of 80-170 EJ per year in 2050 of which 50 EJ per year iswaste/residue based. 86• Deutsches Biomasse Forschungs Zentrum (DBFZ), 2008 did asurvey for Greenpeace International where the sustainable bioenergy potentials for residuals have been estimated at 87.6EJ/a and energy crops at a level of 10 to 15 EJ/a (dependingon the assumptions for food production). The DBFZ technicaland sustainable potential for growing energy crops has beencalculated on the assumption that demand for food takespriority. As a first step the demand for arable and grassland forfood production has been calculated for each of 133 countriesin different scenarios. These scenarios are:Business as usual (BAU) scenario: Present agriculturalactivity continues for the foreseeable futureBasic scenario: No forest clearing; reduced use of fallowareas for agricultureSub-scenario 1: Basic scenario plus expanded ecologicalprotection areas and reduced crop yieldsSub-scenario 2: Basic scenario plus food consumptionreduced in industrialised countriesSub-scenario 3: Combination of sub-scenarios 1 and 2.In a next step the surpluses of agricultural areas were classifiedeither as arable land or grassland. On grassland, hay and grasssilage are produced, on arable land fodder silage and ShortRotation Coppice (such as fast-growing willow or poplar) arecultivated. Silage of green fodder and grass are assumed to beused for biogas production, wood from SRC and hay fromgrasslands for the production of heat, electricity and syntheticfuels. Country specific yield variations were taken intoconsideration. The result is that the global biomass potential fromenergy crops in 2050 falls within a range from 6 EJ in Subscenario1 up to 97 EJ in the BAU scenario.Greenpeace’s vision of ecological agriculture means that lowinput agriculture is not an option, but a pre-requisite. This meansstrongly reduced dependence on capital intensive inputs. The shiftto eco-ag increases the importance of agricultural residues assynthetic fertilisers are phased out and animal feed productionand water use (irrigation and other) are reduced. We will needoptimal use of residues as fertilizer, animal feed, and to increasesoil organic carbon and the water retention function of the soilsetc. to make agriculture more resilient to climate impacts(droughts, floods) and to help mitigate climate change.230references84 WWF 2011. WWF ENERGY REPORT 2011. PRODUCED IN COLLABORATION WITH ECOFYS AND OMA.HTTP://WWF.PANDA.ORG/WHAT_WE_DO/FOOTPRINT/CLIMATE_CARBON_ENERGY/ENERGY_SOLUTIONS/RENEWABLE_ENERGY/SUSTAINABLE_ENERGY_REPORT/. SOURCES FOR BIOENERGY ARE ON PGS. 183-18.85 BERINGER, T. ET AL. 2011. BIOENERGY PRODUCTION POTENTIAL OF GLOBAL BIOMASS PLANTATIONSUNDER ENVIRONMENTAL AND AGRICULTURAL CONSTRAINTS. GCB BIOENERGY, 3:299–312.DOI:10.1111/J.1757-1707.2010.01088.X86 WBGU 2009. FUTURE BIOENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE LAND USE. EARTHSCAN, LONDON AND STERLING, VA

energy technologiesGLOBAL SCENARIO FOSSIL FUEL TECHNOLOGIES NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES RENEWABLE ENERGYTECHNOLOGIES99“thetechnologyis here,all we need ispolitical will.”© DIGITAL GLOBEimage THE GREAT BARRIER REEF CAN BE SEEN FROM OUTER SPACE AND IS THE WORLD’S BIGGEST SINGLE STRUCTURE MADE BY LIVING ORGANISMS. THIS REEF STRUCTURE ISCOMPOSED OF AND BUILT BY BILLIONS OF TINY ORGANISMS, KNOWN AS CORAL POLYPS. IT SUPPORTS A WIDE DIVERSITY OF LIFE AND WAS SELECTED AS A WORLD HERITAGE SITE IN 1981.231

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | FOSSIL FUEL TECHNOLOGIESThis chapter describes the range of technologies available nowand in the future to satisfy the world’s energy demand. TheEnergy [R]evolution scenario is focused on the potential forenergy savings and renewable sources, primarily in the electricityand heat generating sectors.9.1 fossil fuel technologiesThe most commonly used fossil fuels for power generation aroundthe world are coal and gas. Oil is still used where other fuels arenot readily available, for example islands or remote sites, orwhere there is an indigenous resource. Together, coal and gascurrently account for over half of global electricity supply.9.1.1 coal combustion technologiesIn a conventional coal-fired power station, pulverised or powderedcoal is blown into a combustion chamber where it is burned athigh temperature. The resulting heat is used to convert waterflowing through pipes lining the boiler into steam. This drives asteam turbine and generates electricity. Over 90% of global coalfiredcapacity uses this system. Coal power stations can vary incapacity from a few hundred megawatts up to several thousand.A number of technologies have been introduced to improve theenvironmental performance of conventional coal combustion.These include coal cleaning (to reduce the ash content) andvarious ‘bolt-on’ or ‘end-of-pipe’ technologies to reduce emissionsof particulates, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide, the mainpollutants resulting from coal firing apart from carbon dioxide.Flue gas desulphurisation (FGD), for example, most commonlyinvolves ‘scrubbing’ the flue gases using an alkaline sorbentslurry, which is predominantly lime or limestone based.More fundamental changes have been made to the way coal isburned both to improve its efficiency and further reduceemissions of pollutants. These include:• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle: Coal is not burneddirectly but reacted with oxygen and steam to form a syntheticgas composed mainly of hydrogen and carbon monoxide. This iscleaned and then burned in a gas turbine to generate electricityand produce steam to drive a steam turbine. IGCC improves theefficiency of coal combustion from 38-40% up to 50%.• Supercritical and Ultrasupercritical: These power plants operateat higher temperatures than conventional combustion, againincreasing efficiency towards 50%.• Fluidised Bed Combustion: Coal is burned in a reactorcomprised of a bed through which gas is fed to keep the fuel ina turbulent state. This improves combustion, heat transfer andthe recovery of waste products. By elevating pressures within abed, a high-pressure gas stream can be used to drive a gasturbine, generating electricity. Emissions of both sulphur dioxideand nitrogen oxide can be reduced substantially.• Pressurised Pulverised Coal Combustion: Mainly beingdeveloped in Germany, this is based on the combustion of afinely ground cloud of coal particles creating high pressure,232high temperature steam for power generation. The hot fluegases are used to generate electricity in a similar way to thecombined cycle system.Other potential future technologies involve the increased use ofcoal gasification. Underground Coal Gasification, for example,involves converting deep underground unworked coal into acombustible gas which can be used for industrial heating, powergeneration or the manufacture of hydrogen, synthetic natural gasor other chemicals. The gas can be processed to remove CO2before it is passed on to end users. Demonstration projects areunderway in Australia, Europe, China and Japan.9.1.2 gas combustion technologiesNatural gas can be used for electricity generation through the useof either gas or steam turbines. For the equivalent amount ofheat, gas produces about 45% less carbon dioxide during itscombustion than coal.Gas turbine plants use the heat from gases to directly operate theturbine. Natural gas fuelled turbines can start rapidly, and aretherefore often used to supply energy during periods of peakdemand, although at higher cost than baseload plants.Particularly high efficiencies can be achieved through combininggas turbines with a steam turbine in combined cycle mode. In acombined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant, a gas turbinegenerator produces electricity and the exhaust gases from theturbine are then used to make steam to generate additionalelectricity. The efficiency of modern CCGT power stations can bemore than 50%. Most new gas power plants built since the1990s have been of this type.At least until the recent increase in global gas prices, CCGTpower stations have been the cheapest option for electricitygeneration in many countries. Capital costs have beensubstantially lower than for coal and nuclear plants andconstruction time shorter.9.1.3 carbon reduction technologiesWhenever a fossil fuel is burned, carbon dioxide (CO2) isproduced. Depending on the type of power plant, a large quantityof the gas will dissipate into the atmosphere and contribute toclimate change. A hard coal power plant discharges roughly 720grammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour, a modern gas-firedplant about 370g CO2/kWh. One method, currently underdevelopment, to mitigate the CO2 impact of fossil fuel combustionis called carbon capture and storage (CCS). It involves capturingCO2 from power plant smokestacks, compressing the captured gasfor transport via pipeline or ship and pumping it intounderground geological formations for permanent storage.While frequently touted as the solution to the carbon probleminherent in fossil fuel combustion, CCS for coal-fired powerstations is unlikely to be ready for at least another decade.Despite the ‘proof of concept’ experiments currently in progress,the technology remains unproven as a fully integrated process in

image BROWN COAL SURFACE MINING IN HAMBACH,GERMANY. GIANT COAL EXCAVATOR AND SPOIL PILE.© ARNOLD/VISUM/GPrelation to all of its operational components. Suitable andeffective capture technology has not been developed and isunlikely to be commercially available any time soon; effective andsafe long-term storage on the scale necessary has not beendemonstrated; and serious concerns attach to the safety aspectsof transport and injection of CO2 into designated formations,while long term retention cannot reliably be assured.Deploying the technology on coal power plants is likely to doubleconstruction costs, increase fuel consumption by 10-40%, consumemore water, generate more pollutants and ultimately require thepublic sector to ensure that the CO2 stays where it has been buried.In a similar way to the disposal of nuclear waste, CCS envisagescreating a scheme whereby future generations monitor inperpetuity the climate pollution produced by their predecessors.9.1.4 carbon dioxide storageIn order to benefit the climate, captured CO2 has to be storedsomewhere permanently. Current thinking is that it can bepumped under the earth’s surface at a depth of over 3,000 feetinto geological formations, such as saline aquifers. However, thevolume of CO2 that would need to be captured and stored isenormous - a single coal-fired power plant can produce 7 milliontonnes of CO2 annually. It is estimated that a single ‘stabilisationwedge’ of CCS (enough to reduce carbon emissions by 1 billionmetric tons per year by 2050) would require a flow of CO2 intothe ground equal to the current flow out of the ground - and inaddition to the associated infrastructure to compress, transportand pump it underground. It is still not clear that it will betechnically feasible to capture and bury this much carbon, both interms of the number of storage sites and whether they will belocated close enough to power plants.Even if it is feasible to bury hundreds of thousands of megatonsof CO2 there is no way to guarantee that storage locations will beappropriately designed and managed over the timescalesrequired. The world has limited experience of storing CO2underground; the longest running storage project at Sleipner inthe Norweigian North Sea began operation only in 1996. This isparticularly concerning because as long as CO2 is present ingeological sites, there is a risk of leakage. Although leakages areunlikely to occur in well managed and monitored sites, permanentstorage stability cannot be guaranteed since tectonic activity andnatural leakage over long timeframes are impossible to predict.Sudden leakage of CO2 can be fatal. Carbon dioxide is not itselfpoisonous, and is contained (approx. 0.04 %) in the air webreathe. But as concentrations increase it displaces the vitaloxygen in the air. Air with concentrations of 7 to 8% CO2 byvolume causes death by suffocation after 30 to 60 minutes.There are also health hazards when large amounts of CO2 areexplosively released. Although the gas normally disperses quicklyafter leaking, it can accumulate in depressions in the landscapeor closed buildings, since carbon dioxide is heavier than air. It isequally dangerous when it escapes more slowly and without beingnoticed in residential areas, for example in cellars below houses.The dangers from such leaks are known from natural volcanicCO2 degassing. Gas escaping at the Lake Nyos crater lake inCameroon, Africa in 1986 killed over 1,700 people. At least tenpeople have died in the Lazio region of Italy in the last 20 yearsas a result of CO2 being released.9.1.5 carbon storage and climate change targetsCan carbon storage contribute to climate change reductiontargets? In order to avoid dangerous climate change, globalgreenhouse gas emissions need to peak by between 2015 and2020 and fall dramatically thereafter. However, power plantscapable of capturing and storing CO2 are still being developedand won’t become a reality for at least another decade, if ever.This means that even if CCS works, the technology would notmake any substantial contribution towards protecting the climatebefore 2020.Power plant CO2 storage will also not be of any great help inattaining the goal of at least an 80% greenhouse gas reductionby 2050 in OECD countries. Even if CCS were to be available in2020, most of the world’s new power plants will have justfinished being modernised. All that could then be done would befor existing power plants to be retrofitted and CO2 captured fromthe waste gas flow. Retrofitting power plants would be anextremely expensive exercise. ‘Capture ready’ power plants areequally unlikely to increase the likelihood of retrofitting existingfleets with capture technology.The conclusion reached in the Energy [R]evolution scenario isthat renewable energy sources are already available, in manycases cheaper, and lack the negative environmental impactsassociated with fossil fuel exploitation, transport and processing.It is renewable energy together with energy efficiency and energyconservation – and not carbon capture and storage – that has toincrease worldwide so that the primary cause of climate change –the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas – is stopped.Greenpeace opposes any CCS efforts which lead to:• public financial support to CCS at the expense of fundingrenewable energy development and investment in energy efficiency.• stagnation of renewable energy, energy efficiency and energyconservation improvements.• inclusion of CCS in the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM) as it would divert funds away from thestated intention of the mechanism, and cannot be consideredclean development under any coherent definition of this term.• promotion of this possible future technology as the only majorsolution to climate change, thereby leading to new fossil fueldevelopments – especially lignite and black coal-fired powerplants, and an increase in emissions in the short to medium term.9energy technologies | FOSSIL FUEL TECHNOLOGIES233

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES9.2 nuclear technologiesGenerating electricity from nuclear power involves transferringthe heat produced by a controlled nuclear fission reaction into aconventional steam turbine generator. The nuclear reaction takesplace inside a core and surrounded by a containment vessel ofvarying design and structure. Heat is removed from the core by acoolant (gas or water) and the reaction controlled by amoderating element or “moderator”.Across the world over the last two decades there has been ageneral slowdown in building new nuclear power stations. This hasbeen caused by a variety of factors: fear of a nuclear accident,following the events at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Monju andFukushima, increased scrutiny of economics and environmentalfactors, such as waste management and radioactive discharges.9.2.1 nuclear reactor designs:evolution and safety issuesAt the beginning of 2005 there were 441 nuclear power reactorsoperating in 31 countries around the world. Although there aredozens of different reactor designs and sizes, there are threebroad categories either currently deployed or under development.These are:Generation I: Prototype commercial reactors developed in the1950s and 1960s as modified or enlarged military reactors,originally either for submarine propulsion or plutonium production.Generation II: Mainstream reactor designs in commercialoperation worldwide.Generation III: New generation reactors now being built.Generation III reactors include the so-called Advanced Reactors,three of which are already in operation in Japan, with moreunder construction or planned. About 20 different designs arereported to be under development, 87 most of them ‘evolutionary’designs developed from Generation II reactor types with somemodifications, but without introducing drastic changes. Some ofthem represent more innovative approaches. According to theWorld Nuclear Association, reactors of Generation III arecharacterised by the following:• a standardised design for each type to expedite licensing,reduce capital cost and construction time• a simpler and more rugged design, making them easier tooperate and less vulnerable to operational upsets• higher availability and longer operating life, typically 60 years• reduced possibility of core melt accidents• minimal effect on the environment• higher burn-up to reduce fuel use and the amount of waste• burnable absorbers (‘poisons’) to extend fuel lifeTo what extent these goals address issues of higher safetystandards, as opposed to improved economics, remains unclear.Of the new reactor types, the European Pressurised WaterReactor (EPR) has been developed from the most recentGeneration II designs to start operation in France and Germany. 88Its stated goals are to improve safety levels - in particular toreduce the probability of a severe accident by a factor of ten,achieve mitigation from severe accidents by restricting theirconsequences to the plant itself, and reduce costs. Compared toits predecessors, however, the EPR displays several modificationswhich constitute a reduction of safety margins, including:• The volume of the reactor building has been reduced bysimplifying the layout of the emergency core cooling system,and by using the results of new calculations which predict lesshydrogen development during an accident.• The thermal output of the plant has been increased by 15%relative to existing French reactors by increasing core outlettemperature, letting the main coolant pumps run at highercapacity and modifying the steam generators.• The EPR has fewer redundant pathways in its safety systemsthan a German Generation II reactor.Several other modifications are hailed as substantial safetyimprovements, including a ‘core catcher’ system to control ameltdown accident. Nonetheless, in spite of the changes beingenvisaged, there is no guarantee that the safety level of the EPRactually represents a significant improvement. In particular,reduction of the expected core melt probability by a factor of tenis not proven. Furthermore, there are serious doubts as towhether the mitigation and control of a core melt accident withthe core catcher concept will actually work.Finally, Generation IV reactors are currently being developedwith the aim of commercialisation in 20-30 years.234references87 IAEA 2004; WNO 2004A.88 HAINZ 2004.

image SOLAR PROJECT IN PHITSANULOK, THAILAND. SOLAR FACILITY OF THEINTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE AND SCHOOL FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY.image SOLAR PANELS ON CONISTON STATION, NORTH WEST OF ALICE SPRINGS,NORTHERN TERRITORY.© CHRISTIAN KAISER/GP© GP/SOLNESS9.3 renewable energy technologiesRenewable energy covers a range of natural sources which areconstantly renewed and therefore, unlike fossil fuels and uranium,will never be exhausted. Most of them derive from the effect ofthe sun and moon on the earth’s weather patterns. They alsoproduce none of the harmful emissions and pollution associatedwith ‘conventional’ fuels. Although hydroelectric power has beenused on an industrial scale since the middle of the last century,the serious exploitation of other renewable sources has a morerecent history.box 9.1: definition of renewable energy by the ipcc“Renewable energy is any form of energy from solar,geophysical or biological sources that is replenished bynatural processes at a rate that equals or exceeds its rateof use. RE is obtained from the continuing or repetitiveflows of energy occurring in the natural environment andincludes resources such as biomass, solar energy,geothermal heat, hydropower, tide and waves and oceanthermal energy, and wind energy. However, it is possible toutilise biomass at a greater rate than it can grow, or todraw heat from a geothermal field at a faster rate thanheat flows can replenish it. On the other hand, the rate ofutilisation of direct solar energy has no bearing on the rateat which it reaches the Earth. Fossil fuels (coal, oil, naturalgas) do not fall under this definition, as they are notreplenished within a time frame that is short relative totheir rate of utilisation.”sourceIPCC, SPECIAL REPORT RENEWABLE ENERGY /SRREN RENEWABLES FOR POWER GENERATION.figure 9.1: example of the photovoltaic effect9.3.1 solar power (photovoltaics)There is more than enough solar radiation available all over theworld to satisfy a vastly increased demand for solar powersystems. The sunlight which reaches the earth’s surface is enoughto provide 7,900 times as much energy as we can currently use.On a global average, each square metre of land is exposed toenough sunlight to produce 1,700 kWh of power every year. Theaverage irradiation in Europe is about 1,000 kWh per squaremetre and 1,800 kWh in the Middle East.Photovoltaic (PV) technology is the generation of electricityfrom light. Photovoltaic systems contain cells that convertsunlight into electricity. Inside each cell there are layers of asemi-conducting material. Light falling on the cell creates anelectric field across the layers, causing electricity to flow. Theintensity of the light determines the amount of electrical powereach cell generates. A photovoltaic system does not need directsunlight in order to operate. It can also generate electricity oncloudy and rainy days but with lower output.Solar PV is different from a solar thermal collecting system (seebelow) where the sun’s rays are used to generate heat, usually for hotwater in a house, swimming pool, or other domestic applications.The most important parts of a PV system are the cells whichform the basic building blocks, the modules which bring togetherlarge numbers of cells into a unit, and, in some situations, theinverters used to convert the electricity generated into a formsuitable for everyday use. When a PV installation is described ashaving a capacity of 3 kWp (peak), this refers to the output ofthe system under standard testing conditions, allowingcomparison between different modules. In central Europe a 3kWp rated solar electricity system, with a surface area ofapproximately 27 square metres, would produce enough power tomeet the electricity demand of an energy conscious household.figure 9.2: photovoltaic technology9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES11. LIGHT (PHOTONS)2. FRONT CONTACT GRID3. ANTI-REFLECTION COATING4. N-TYPE SEMICONDUCTOR5. BOARDER LAYOUT6. P-TYPE SEMICONDUCTOR7. BACK CONTACTJUNCTIONCURRENTLOAD2345–sourceEPIA.PHOTONSELECTRON FLOW––N-TYPE SILICON++P-TYPE SILICON‘HOLE’ FLOW67– –+235

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESThere are several different PV technologies and types of installedsystem. PV systems can provide clean power for small or largeapplications. They are already installed and generating energyaround the world on individual homes, housing developments,offices and public buildings.Today, fully functioning solar PV installations operate in bothbuilt environments and remote areas where it is difficult toconnect to the grid or where there is no energy infrastructure. PVinstallations that operate in isolated locations are known asstand-alone systems. In built areas, PV systems can be mountedon top of roofs (known as Building Adapted PV systems – orBAPV) or can be integrated into the roof or building facade(known as Building Integrated PV systems – or BIPV).Modern PV systems are not restricted to square and flat panelarrays. They can be curved, flexible and shaped to the building’sdesign. Innovative architects and engineers are constantly findingnew ways to integrate PV into their designs, creating buildingsthat are dynamic, beautiful and provide free, clean energythroughout their life.TechnologiesCrystalline silicon technology: Crystalline silicon cells are madefrom thin slices cut from a single crystal of silicon (monocrystalline) or from a block of silicon crystals (polycrystalline ormulti crystalline). This is the most common technology,representing about 80% of the market today. In addition, thistechnology also exists in the form of ribbon sheets.Thin film technology: Thin film modules are constructed bydepositing extremely thin layers of photosensitive materials ontoa substrate such as glass, stainless steel or flexible plastic. Thelatter opens up a range of applications, especially for buildingintegration (roof tiles) and end-consumer purposes. Four types ofthin film modules are commercially available at the moment:Amorphous Silicon, Cadmium Telluride, Copper Indium/GalliumDiselenide/Disulphide and multi-junction cells.Other emerging cell technologies (at the development or earlycommercial stage): These include Concentrated Photovoltaic,consisting of cells built into concentrating collectors that use alens to focus the concentrated sunlight onto the cells, and OrganicSolar Cells, whereby the active material consists at least partiallyof organic dye, small, volatile organic molecules or polymer.SystemsIndustrial and utility-scale power plants: Large industrial PVsystems can produce enormous quantities of electricity at a singlepoint. These types of electricity generation plants can producefrom many hundreds of kilowatts (kW) to several megawatts(MW).The solar panels for industrial systems are usuallymounted on frames on the ground. However, they can also beinstalled on large industrial buildings such as warehouses, airportterminals or railways stations. The system can make double-use ofan urban space and put electricity into the grid where energyintensiveconsumers are located.Residential and commercial systems: Grid Connected Gridconnected are the most popular type of solar PV systems forhomes and businesses in the developed world. Connection to thelocal electricity network, allows any excess power produced to besold to the utility. When solar energy is not available, electricitycan be drawn from the grid. An inverter converts the DC powerproduced by the system to AC power for running normalelectrical equipment. This type of PV system is referred to asbeing ‘on-grid.’ A ‘grid support’ system can be connected to thelocal electricity network as well as a back-up battery. Any excesssolar electricity produced after the battery has been charged isthen sold to the network. This system is ideal for use in areas ofunreliable power supply.Stand-alone, off-grid systems Off-grid PV systems have noconnection to an electricity grid. An off-grid system usually hasbatteries, so power can still be used at night or after several daysof low sun. An inverter is needed to convert the DC powergenerated into AC power for use in appliances. Typical off-gridapplications are:• Off-grid systems for rural electrification: Typical off-gridinstallations bring electricity to remote areas or developingcountries. They can be small home systems which cover ahousehold’s basic electricity needs, or larger solar mini-gridswhich provide enough power for several homes, a community orsmall business use.• Off-grid industrial applications: Off-grid industrial systems areused in remote areas to power repeater stations for mobiletelephones (enabling communications), traffic signals, marinenavigational aids, remote lighting, highway signs and watertreatment plants among others. Both full PV and hybridsystems are used. Hybrid systems are powered by the sun whentable 9.1: typical type and size of applications per market segmentMARKET SEGMENTTYPE OF APPLICATIONRESIDENTIAL< 10 kWpCOMMERCIAL10 kWp - 100 kWpINDUSTRIAL100 kWp - 1 MWpUTILITY-SCALE> 1 MWpGround-mountedRoof-topIntegrated to facade/roof-••-••••-•236

image LA DEHESA, 50 MW PARABOLIC TROUGH SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT WITH MOLTENSALTS STORAGE. COMPLETED IN FEBRUARY 2011, IT IS LOCATED IN LA GAROVILLA (BADAJOZ),SPAIN, AND IT IS OWNED BY RENOVABLES SAMCA. WITH AN ANNUAL PRODUCTION OF 160 MILLIONKWH, LA DEHESA WILL BE ABLE TO COVER THE ELECTRICITY NEEDS OF MORE THAN 45,000 HOMES,PREVENTING THE EMISSION OF 160,000 TONS OF CARBON. THE 220 H PLANT HAS 225,792 MIRRORSARRANGED IN ROWS AND 672 SOLAR COLLECTORS WHICH OCCUPY A TOTAL LENGTH OF 100KM.© M. REDONDO/GPit is available and by other fuel sources during the night andextended cloudy periods. Off-grid industrial systems provide acost-effective way to bring power to areas that are very remotefrom existing grids. The high cost of installing cabling makesoff-grid solar power an economical choice.Consumer goods: PV cells are now found in many everydayelectrical appliances such as watches, calculators, toys, andbattery chargers (for instance embedded in clothes and bags).Services such as water sprinklers, road signs, lighting andtelephone boxes also often rely on individual PV systems.Hybrid Systems: A solar system can be combined with anothersource of power – e.g. a biomass generator, a wind turbine ordiesel generator - to ensure a consistent supply of electricity. Ahybrid system can be grid connected, stand alone or grid support.9.3.2 concentrating solar power (CSP)The majority of the world’s electricity today—whether generated bycoal, gas, nuclear, oil or biomass—comes from creating a hot fluid.Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies produce electricityby concentrating direct-beam solar irradiance to heat a liquid, solidor gas that is then used in a downstream process for electricitygeneration. CSP simply provides an alternative heat source.Thus, CSP plants, also called solar thermal power plants, produceelectricity in much the same way as conventional power stations.They obtain their energy input by concentrating solar radiationand converting it to high temperature steam or gas to drive aturbine or motor engine. Large mirrors concentrate sunlight intoa single line or point. The heat created there is used to generatesteam. This hot, highly pressurised steam is used to powerturbines which generate electricity. In sun-drenched regions, CSPplants can guarantee a large proportion of electricity production.An attraction of this technology is that it builds on much of thecurrent know-how on power generation in the world today. It willbenefit from ongoing advances in solar concentrator technologyand as improvements continue to be made in steam and gasturbine cycles.Some of the key advantages of CSP include:• it can be installed in a range of capacities to suit varyingapplications and conditions, from tens of kW (dish/Stirlingsystems) to multiple MWs (tower and trough systems)• it can integrate thermal storage for peaking loads (less thanone hour) and intermediate loads (three to six hours) or baseload (15-20 hours) just as required by demand• it has modular and scalable components,• it does not require exotic materials.• hybrid operation with biomass or fossil fuel guarantees firmand flexible power capacity on demand.SystemsAll systems require four main elements: a concentrator, a receiver,some form of transfer medium or storage and power conversion.Many different types of system are possible, including combinationswith other renewable and non-renewable technologies, but there arefour main groups of solar thermal technologies:Parabolic trough: Parabolic trough plants use rows of parabolictrough collectors, each of which reflect the solar radiation intoan absorber tube. The troughs track the Sun around one axis,typically oriented north-south. Synthetic oil circulates throughthe tubes, heating up to approximately 400°C. The hot oil fromnumerous rows of troughs is passed through a heat exchanger togenerate steam for a conventional steam turbine generator togenerate electricity. Some of the plants under construction havebeen designed to produce power not only during sunny hours butalso to store energy, allowing the plant to produce an additional7.5 hours of nominal power after sunset, which dramaticallyimproves their integration into the grid. Molten salts are normallyused as storage fluid in a hot-and-cold two-tank concept. Plantsin operation in Europe: Andasol 1 and 2 (50 MW +7.5 hourstorage each); Puertollano (50 MW); Alvarado (50 MW) andExtresol 1 (50 MW + 7.5 hour storage). Land requirements areof the order of 2 km 2 for a 100-MWe plant, depending on thecollector technology and assuming no storage is provided.Linear Fresnel Systems: Collectors resemble parabolic troughs,with a similar power generation technology, using long lines offlat or nearly flat Fresnel reflectors to form a field of horizontallymounted flat mirror strips, collectively or individually tracking thesun. These are cheaper to install than trough systems but not asefficient. There is one plant currently in operation in Europe:Puerto Errado (2 MW).Central receiver or solar tower: Central receivers (or “powertowers”) are point-focus collectors that are able to generatemuch higher temperatures than troughs and linear Fresnelreflectors. This technology uses a circular array of mirrors(heliostats) where each mirror tracks the Sun, reflecting the lightonto a fixed receiver on top of a tower. Temperatures of morethan 1,000°C can be reached. A heat-transfer medium absorbsthe highly concentrated radiation reflected by the heliostats andconverts it into thermal energy to be used for the subsequentgeneration of superheated steam for turbine operation. To date,the heat transfer media demonstrated include water/steam,molten salts, liquid sodium and air. If pressurised gas or air isused at very high temperatures of about 1,000°C or more as theheat transfer medium, it can even be used to directly replacenatural gas in a gas turbine, thus making use of the excellentefficiency (60%+) of modern gas and steam combined cycles.9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES237

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESAfter an intermediate scaling up to 30 MW capacity, solar towerdevelopers now feel confident that grid-connected tower powerplants can be built up to a capacity of 200 MWe solar-only units.Use of heat storage will increase their flexibility. Although solartower plants are considered to be further from commercialisationthan parabolic trough systems, they have good longer-termprospects for high conversion efficiencies. Projects are beingdeveloped in Spain, South Africa and Australia.Parabolic dish: A dish-shaped reflector is used to concentratesunlight on to a receiver located at its focal point. The receivermoves with the dish. The concentrated beam radiation is absorbedinto the receiver to heat a fluid or gas to approximately 750°C.This is then used to generate electricity in a small piston, Stirlingengine or micro turbine attached to the receiver. Dishes have beenused to power Stirling engines up to 900°C, and also for steamgeneration. The largest solar dishes have a 485-m 2 aperture andare in research facilities or demonstration plants. Currently thecapacity of each Stirling engine is small — in the order of 10 to25 kWelectric. There is now significant operational experience withdish/Stirling engine systems and the technology has been underdevelopment for many years, with advances in dish structures,high-temperature receivers, use of hydrogen as the circulatingworking fluid, as well as some experiments with liquid metals andimprovements in Stirling engines — all bringing the technologycloser to commercial deployment. Although the individual unit sizemay only be of the order of tens of kWe, power stations of up to800 MWe have been proposed by aggregating many modules.Because each dish represents a stand-alone electricity generator,there is great flexibility in the capacity and rate at which units areinstalled to the grid. However, the dish technology is less likely tointegrate thermal storage. The potential of parabolic dishes liesprimarily for decentralised power supply and remote, stand-alonepower systems. Projects are currently planned in the UnitedStates, Australia and Europe.Thermal Storage: Thermal energy storage integrated into a systemis an important attribute of CSP. Until recently, this has beenprimarily for operational purposes, providing 30 minutes to onehour of full-load storage. This eases the impact of thermaltransients such as clouds on the plant, assists start-up and shutdown,and provides benefits to the grid. Trough plants are nowdesigned for 6 to 7.5 hours of storage, which is enough to allowoperation well into the evening when peak demand can occur andtariffs are high.In thermal storage, the heat from the solar field is stored beforereaching the turbine. The solar field needs to be oversized so thatenough heat can be supplied to both operate the turbine duringthe day and, charge the thermal storage. Thermal storage forCSP systems needs to be generally between 400°C and 600°C,higher than the temperature of the working fluid. Temperaturesare also dictated by the limits of the media available. Examplesof storage media include molten salt (presently comprisingseparate hot and cold tanks), steam accumulators (for short-termstorage only), solid ceramic particles, high-temperature phasechangematerials, graphite, and high-temperature concrete. Theheat can then be drawn from the storage to generate steam for aturbine, when needed. Another type of storage associated withhigh-temperature CSP is thermochemical storage, where solarenergy is stored chemically. Trough plants in Spain are nowoperating with molten-salt storage. In the USA, Abengoa Solar’s280-MW Solana trough project, planned to be operational by2013, intends to integrate six hours of thermal storage. Towers,with their higher temperatures, can charge and store molten saltmore efficiently. Gemasolar, a 19-MWe solar tower projectoperating in Spain, is designed for 15 hours of storage, giving a75% annual capacity factor (Arce et al., 2011).figures 9.3: csp technologies: parabolic trough, central receiver/solar tower and parabolic dishPARABOLICTROUGHCENTRAL RECEIVERPARABOLIC DISHCENTRAL RECEIVERREFLECTORREFLECTORRECEIVER/ENGINEABSORBER TUBEHELIOSTATSSOLAR FIELD PIPING238

image SOLAR PANELS FEATURED IN A RENEWABLE ENERGY EXHIBIT ON BORACAYISLAND, ONE OF THE PHILIPPINES’ PREMIER TOURIST DESTINATIONS.image VESTAS VM 80 WIND TURBINES AT AN OFFSHORE WIND PARK IN THEWESTERN PART OF DENMARK.© GP/RODA ANGELES© P. PETERSEN/DREAMSTIMEbox 9.2: centralised CSPCentralised CSP benefits from the economies of scaleoffered by large-scale plants. Based on conventional steamand gas turbine cycles, much of the technological know-howof large power station design and practice is already inplace. While larger capacity has significant cost benefits, ithas also tended to be an inhibitor until recently because ofthe much larger investment commitment required frominvestors. In addition, larger power stations require stronginfrastructural support, and new or augmented transmissioncapacity may be needed. The earliest commercial CSP plantswere the 354 MW of Solar Electric Generating Stations inCalifornia — deployed between 1985 and 1991 — thatcontinue to operate commercially today. As a result of thepositive experiences and lessons learned from these earlyplants, the trough systems tend to be the technology mostoften applied today as the CSP industry grows. In Spain,regulations to date have mandated that the largest capacityunit that can be installed is 50 MWe to help stimulateindustry competition. In the USA, this limitation does notexist, and proposals are in place for much larger plants —280 MWe in the case of troughs and 400 MWe plants(made up of four modules) based on towers. There arepresently two operational solar towers of 10 and 20 MWe,and all tower developers plan to increase capacity in linewith technology development, regulations and investmentcapital. Multiple dishes have also been proposed as a sourceof aggregated heat, rather than distributed-generationStirling or Brayton units. CSP or PV electricity can also beused to power reverse-osmosis plants for desalination.Dedicated CSP desalination cycles based on pressure andtemperature are also being developed for desalination.9.3.3 wind powerWind energy has grown faster than all other electricity sources inthe last 20 years and turbine technology has advanced sufficiencythat a single machine can power about 5,000 homes. In Europe,wind farms are generally well integrated into the environment andaccepted by the public. Smaller models can produce electricity forareas that are not connected to a central grid, through use ofbattery storage.Wind speeds and patterns are good enough for this technology onall continents, on both coastlines and inland. The wind resource outat sea is particularly productive and is now being harnessed byoffshore wind parks with foundations embedded in the ocean floor.Wind turbine design: Modern wind technology is available for lowand high wind speeds, and in a variety of climates. A variety ofonshore wind turbine configurations have been investigated,including both horizontal and vertical axis designs (see Figure9.4 below). Now, the horizontal axis design dominates, and mostdesigns now centre on the three-blade, upwind rotor; locatingthe turbine blades upwind of the tower prevents the towerfrom blocking wind flow and avoids extra aerodynamic noiseand loading. 899energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESfigure 9.4: early wind turbine designs, including horizontal and vertical axis turbinesHORIZONTAL AXIS TURBINESVERTICAL AXIS TURBINESreference89 EWEA.239

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9The blades are attached to a hub and main shaft, which transferspower to a generator, sometimes via a gearbox, depending ondesign, to a generator. The electricity output is channelled downthe tower to a transformer and eventually into the local gridnetwork. The main shaft and main bearings, gearbox, generatorand control system are contained within a housing called thenacelle (Figure 9.5).Turbine size has increased over time and the turbine output iscontrolled by pitching (i.e., rotating) the blades along their longaxis. 90 Reduced cost of power electronics allows variable speedwind turbine operation which helps maintain production in variableand gusty winds and also keep large wind power plants generatingduring electrical faults, and providing reactive power.Modern wind turbines typically operate at variable speeds usingfull-span blade pitch control. Over the past 30 years, averagewind turbine size has grown significantly (Figure 9.6), with thelargest fraction of onshore wind turbines installed globally in2011 having a rated capacity of 3.5 to 7.5 MW; the average sizeof turbines installed in 2011 was around 2–2.5 MW.As of 2010, wind turbines used on land typically have 50 to100 m high towers, with rotors between 50 to 100 m in diameter.Some commercial machines have diameters and tower heightsabove 125 m, and even larger models are being developed.Modern turbines spin at 12 to 20 revolutions per minute (RPM),which is much slower than the models from the 1980s modelswhich spun at 60 RPM. Later rotors are slower, less visuallydisruptive and less noisy.Onshore wind turbines are typically grouped together into windpower plants, with between 5-300 MW generating capacity, andare sometimes also called wind farms. Turbines have been gettinglarger to help reduce the cost of generation (reach better qualitywind), reduce investment per unit of capacity and reduceoperation and maintenance costs. 91For turbines on land, there will be engineering and logisticalconstraints to size because the components have to travel by road.Modern wind turbines have nearly reached their theoreticalmaximum of aerodynamic efficiency, measured by the coefficient ofperformance (0.44 in the 1980s to about 0.50 by the mid 2000s).energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESfigure 9.5: basic components of a modern,horizontal axis wind turbine with a gearbox4152 637figure 9.6: growth in size of typical commercialwind turbinesH: HUB HEIGHTD: DIAMETER OF THE ROTOR5,000kWROTORDIAMETER20,000kWSWEPT AREAOF BLADESPITCH8750kW1,800kWHUB HEIGHT75kWTRANSFORMER1. ROTOR BLADE2. BLADE ADJUSTMENT3. NACELL4. ROTOR SHAFT5. ANEMOMETOR6. GENERATOR7. SYSTEM CONTROL8. LIFT INSIDE THE TOWER1980-90H: 20m/D: 17m1995-00H: 50m/D: 50m2005-10H: 80m/D: 80m2010-?H: 125m/D: 125mFutureH: 180m/D: 250msourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE,FIGURE(S).... CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.references90 EWEA.91 EWEA.240

image FOREST CREEK WIND FARM PRODUCING 2.3MW WITH WIND TURBINES MADE BY SIEMENS.WORKERS WORKING ON TOP OF WIND TURBINE.© GP/ZENIT/LANGROCKOffshore wind energy technology: The existing offshore marketmakes up just 1.3% of the world’s land-based installed windcapacity, however, the potential at sea is driving the latestdevelopments in wind technology, size in particular.The first offshore wind power plant was built in 1991 inDenmark, consisting of eleven 450 kW wind turbines. By the endof 2009, global installed wind power capacity 2,100 MW. 92By going offshore, wind energy can use stronger winds andprovide clean energy to countries where there is less technicalpotential for land-based wind energy development or where itwould be in conflict with other land uses. Offshore wind energyalso makes use lower ‘shear’ near hub height and greatereconomies of scale from large turbines that can be transportedby ship. Offshore wind farms also reduce the need for new, longdistance,land-based transmission infrastructure that wind farmson land can require. 93There is considerable interest in offshore wind energy technologyin the EU and, increasingly in other regions, despite the typicallyhigher costs relative to onshore wind energy.Offshore wind turbines built between 2007 and 2009 typicallyhave nameplate capacity ratings of 2 to 5 MW and largerturbines are under development. Offshore wind power plantsinstalled from 2007 to 2009 were typically 20 to 120 MW insize, and often installed in water between 10 and 20 m deep.Distance to shore is mostly less than 20 km, but average distancehas increased over time. 94 Offshore wind is likely to be installed atgreater depths, and with larger turbines (5 to 10 MW or larger)as experience is gained and for greater economies of scale.Offshore wind turbine technology has been very similar toonshore designs, with some structural modifications and withspecial foundations. 95 Other design features include marinenavigational equipment and monitoring and infrastructure tominimise expensive servicing.9.3.4 biomass energyBiomass is a broad term used to describe material of recentbiological origin that can be used as a source of energy. Thisincludes wood, crops, algae and other plants as well asagricultural and forest residues. Biomass can be used for avariety of end uses: heating, electricity generation or as fuel fortransportation. The term ‘bio energy’ is used for biomass energysystems that produce heat and/or electricity and ‘biofuels’ forliquid fuels used in transport. Biodiesel manufactured fromvarious crops has become increasingly used as vehicle fuel,especially as the cost of oil has risen.Biological power sources are renewable, easily stored and, ifsustainably harvested, CO2 neutral. This is because the gasemitted during their transfer into useful energy is balanced by thecarbon dioxide absorbed when they were growing plants.Electricity generating biomass power plants work just like naturalgas or coal power stations, except that the fuel must be processedbefore it can be burned. These power plants are generally not aslarge as coal power stations because their fuel supply needs togrow as near as possible to the plant. Heat generation frombiomass power plants can result either from utilising a CombinedHeat and Power (CHP) system, piping the heat to nearby homesor industry, or through dedicated heating systems. Small heatingsystems using specially produced pellets made from waste wood,for example, can be used to heat single family homes instead ofnatural gas or oil.Biomass technologyA number of processes can be used to convert energy frombiomass. These divide into thermochemical processes (directcombustion of solids, liquids or a gas via pyrolysis orgasification), and biological systems, (decomposition of solidbiomass to liquid or gaseous fuels by processes such as anaerobicdigestion and fermentation).Thermochemical processes: Direct combustion Direct biomasscombustion is the most common way of converting biomass intoenergy for both heat and electricity, accounting for over 90% ofbiomass generation. Combustion processes are well understood, inessence when carbon and hydrogen in the fuel react with excessoxygen to form CO2 and water and release heat. In rural areas,many forms are biomass are burned for cooking. Wood andcharcoal are also used as a fuel in industry. A wide range ofexisting commercial technologies are tailored to thecharacteristics of the biomass and the scale of their applications.Technologies types are fixed bed, fluidised bed or entrained flowcombustion. In fixed bed combustion, such as a grate furnace, airfirst passes through a fixed bed for drying, gasification andcharcoal combustion. The combustible gases produced are burnedafter the addition of secondary air, usually in a zone separatedfrom the fuel bed. In fluidised bed combustion, the primarycombustion air is injected from the bottom of the furnace withsuch high velocity that the material inside the furnace becomes aseething mass of particles and bubbles. Entrained flowcombustion is suitable for fuels available as small particles, suchas sawdust or fine shavings, which are pneumatically injected intothe furnace.9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESreferences92 GWEC, 2010A.93 CARBON TRUST, 2008B; SNYDER AND KAISER, 2009B; TWIDELL AND GAUDIOSI, 2009.94 (EWEA, 2010A).95 MUSIAL, 2007; CARBON TRUST, 2008B.241

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESGasification Biomass fuels are increasingly being used withadvanced conversion technologies, such as gasification systems,which are more efficient than conventional power generation.Biomass gasification occurs when a partial oxidation of biomasshappens upon heating. This produces a combustible gas mixture(called producer gas or fuel gas) rich in CO and hydrogen (H2)that has an energy content of 5 to 20 MJ/Nm 3 (depending on thetype of biomass and whether gasification is conducted with air,oxygen or through indirect heating). This energy content isroughly 10 to 45% of the heating value of natural gas.Fuel gas can then be upgraded to a higher-quality gas mixturecalled biomass synthesis gas or syngas. 96 A gas turbine, a boiler ora steam turbine are options to employ unconverted gas fractionsfor electricity co-production. Coupled with electricity generators,syngas can be used as a fuel in place of diesel in suitably designedor adapted internal combustion engines. Most commonly availablegasifiers use wood or woody biomass, Specially designed gasifierscan convert non-woody biomass materials. 97 Compared tocombustion, gasification is more efficient, providing bettercontrolled heating, higher efficiencies in power production and thepossibility for co-producing chemicals and fuels. 98 Gasification canalso decrease emission levels compared to power production withdirect combustion and a steam cycle.Pyrolysis Pyrolysis is the thermal decomposition of biomassoccurring in the absence of oxygen (anaerobic environment) thatproduces a solid (charcoal), a liquid (pyrolysis oil or bio-oil) and agas product. The relative amounts of the three co-products dependon the operating temperature and the residence time used in theprocess. Lower temperatures produce more solid and liquidproducts and higher temperatures more biogas. Heating thebiomass feedstocks to moderate temperatures (450°C to 550°C)produce oxygenated oils as the major products (70 to 80%), withthe remainder split between a biochar and gases.figure 9.7: biogas technology11. HEATED MIXER2. CONTAINMENT FOR FERMENTATION3. BIOGAS STORAGE4. COMBUSTION ENGINE5. GENERATOR6. WASTE CONTAINMENT234 5 6Biological systems: These processes are suitable for very wetbiomass materials such as food or agricultural wastes, includingfarm animal slurry.Anaerobic digestion Anaerobic digestion means the breakdown oforganic waste by bacteria in an oxygen-free environment. Thisproduces a biogas typically made up of 65% methane and 35%carbon dioxide. Purified biogas can then be used both for heatingand electricity generation.Fermentation Fermentation is the process by which growing plantswith a high sugar and starch content are broken down with thehelp of micro-organisms to produce ethanol and methanol. The endproduct is a combustible fuel that can be used in vehicles.Biomass power station capacities typically range up to 15 MW, butlarger plants are possible. However bio mass power station shoulduse the heat as well, in order to use the energy of the biomass asmuch as possible, and therefore the size should not be much largerthan 25 MW (electric). This size could be supplied by local bioenergy and avoid unsustainable long distance fuel supply.Biofuels Converting crops into ethanol and bio diesel made fromrapeseed methyl ester (RME) currently takes place mainly inBrazil, the USA and Europe. Processes for obtaining syntheticfuels from ‘biogenic synthesis’ gases will also play a larger role inthe future. Theoretically biofuels can be produced from anybiological carbon source, although the most common arephotosynthetic plants. Various plants and plant-derived materialsare used for biofuel production.Globally biofuels are most commonly used to power vehicles, butcan also be used for other purposes. The production and use ofbiofuels must result in a net reduction in carbon emissionscompared to the use of traditional fossil fuels to have a positiveeffect in climate change mitigation. Sustainable biofuels canreduce the dependency on petroleum and thereby enhanceenergy security.• Bio ethanol is a fuel manufactured through the fermentation ofsugars. This is done by accessing sugars directly (sugar cane orbeet) or by breaking down starch in grains such as wheat, rye,barley or maize. In the European Union bio ethanol is mainlyproduced from grains, with wheat as the dominant feedstock. InBrazil the preferred feedstock is sugar cane, whereas in theUSA it is corn (maize). Bio ethanol produced from cereals hasa by-product, a protein-rich animal feed called Dried DistillersGrains with Solubles (DDGS). For every tonne of cereals usedfor ethanol production, on average one third will enter theanimal feed stream as DDGS. Because of its high protein levelthis is currently used as a replacement for soy cake. Bioethanol can either be blended into gasoline (petrol) directly orbe used in the form of ETBE (Ethyl Tertiary Butyl Ether).242references96 FAAIJ, 2006.97 YOKOYAMA AND MATSUMURA, 2008.98 KIRKELS AND VERBONG, 2011).

image THROUGH BURNING OF WOOD CHIPS THE POWER PLANT GENERATESELECTRICITY, ENERGY OR HEAT. HERE WE SEE THE STOCK OF WOOD CHIPS WITH ACAPACITY OF 1000 M 3 ON WHICH THE PLANT CAN RUN, UNMANNED, FOR ABOUT FOURDAYS. LELYSTAD, THE NETHERLANDS.image FOOD WASTE FOR THE BIOGAS PLANT. THE FARMER PETER WYSS PRODUCESON HIS FARM WITH A BIOGAS PLANT GREEN ELECTRICITY WITH DUNG FROM COWS,LIQUID MANURE AND WASTE FROM THE FOOD PRODUCTION.© GP/BAS BEENTJES© GP/EX-PRESS/M. FORTE• Bio diesel is a fuel produced from vegetable oil sourced fromrapeseed, sunflower seeds or soybeans as well as used cookingoils or animal fats. If used vegetable oils are recycled asfeedstock for bio diesel production this can reduce pollutionfrom discarded oil and provides a new way of transforming awaste product into transport energy. Blends of bio diesel andconventional hydrocarbon-based diesel are the most commonproducts distributed in the retail transport fuel market.• Most countries use a labelling system to explain the proportionof bio diesel in any fuel mix. Fuel containing 20% biodiesel islabelled B20, while pure bio diesel is referred to as B100.Blends of 20 % bio diesel with 80 % petroleum diesel (B20)can generally be used in unmodified diesel engines. Used in itspure form (B100) an engine may require certain modifications.Bio diesel can also be used as a heating fuel in domestic andcommercial boilers. Older furnaces may contain rubber partsthat would be affected by bio diesel’s solvent properties, butcan otherwise burn it without any conversion.The amount of bio energy used in this report is based on bio energypotential surveys which are drawn from existing studies, but notnecessarily reflecting all the ecological assumptions thatGreenpeace would use. For more details see Chapter 8, page 212.9.3.5 geothermal energyGeothermal energy is heat derived from underneath the earth’scrust. In most areas, this heat is generated a long way down andhas mostly dissipated by the time it reaches the surface, but insome places the geothermal resources are relatively close to thesurface and can be used as non-polluting sources of energy. These“hotspots” include the western part of the USA, west and centralEastern Europe, Iceland, Asia and New Zealand.The uses of geothermal energy depend on the temperatures. Lowand moderate areas temperature areas at (less than 90°C orbetween 90°C and 150°C) can be used for their heat directly andthe highest temperature resources (above 150°C) is suitable onlyfor electric power generation. Today’s total global geothermalgeneration is approximately 10,700 MW, with nearly one-third inUSA (over 3,000 MW), and the next biggest share in Philippines(1,900 MW) and Indonesia (1,200 MW).injection wells, sometimes via another system to use the remainingheat. A few reservoirs, such as The Geysers in the USA, Larderelloin Italy, Matsukawa in Japan, and some Indonesian fields, producesteam vapour naturally that can be used in a turbine. Hot waterproduced from intermediate-temperature hydrothermal orEnhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs can also be usedin heat exchangers to generate power in a binary cycle, or in directuse applications. Recovered fluids are also injected back into thereservoir. 99 Key technologies are:Exploration and drilling includes estimating where the resource is,its size and depth with geophysical methods and then drillingexploration wells to test the resource. Today, geothermal wells aredrilled over a range of depths down to 5 km using methodssimilar to those used for oil and gas. Advances in exploration anddrilling can technology can be expected. For example if severalwells are drilled from the same pad, it can access more heatresources and minimise the surface impact. 100Reservoir engineering is focused on determining the volume ofgeothermal resource and the optimal plant size. The optimum hasto consider sustainable use of the resources and safe and efficientoperation. The modern method of estimating reserves and sizingpower plants through ‘reservoir simulation’ – a process that startswith a conceptual model followed by a calibrated, numericalrepresentation. 101 Then future behaviour is forecast under selectedload conditions using an algorithm (e.g., TOUGH2) to select theplant size. Injection management looks after the productionzones and uses data to make sure the hot reservoir rock is rechargedsufficiently.figure 9.8: geothermal energy1239energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESTechnology and applicationsGeothermal energy is currently extracted using wells or othermeans that produce hot fluids from either hydrothermalreservoirs with naturally high permeability; or reservoirs that areengineered and fractured to extract heat. See below for moreinformation on these “enhanced geothermal systems”. Productionwells discharge hot water and/or steam.In high-temperature hydrothermal reservoirs, water occursnaturally underground under pressure in liquid from. As it isextracted the pressure drops and the water is converted to steamwhich is piped to a turbine to generate electricity. Remaining hotwater may go through the process again to obtain more steam.The remaining salty water is sent back to the reservoir through4 51. PUMP2. HEAT EXCHANGER3. GAS TURBINE & GENERATOR4. DRILLING HOLE FOR COLD WATER INJECTION5. DRILLING HOLE FOR WARM WATER EXTRACTIONreferences99 ARMSTEAD AND TESTER, 1987; DICKSON AND FANELLI, 2003; DIPIPPO, 2008.100 IPCC, SRREN 2011.101 GRANT ET AL., 1982.243

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKGeothermal power plants uses the steam created from heatingwater via natural underground sources to power a turbine whichproduces electricity. The technique has been used for decades inUSA, New Zealand and Iceland this technique, and is under trialin Germany, where it is necessary to drill many kilometres downto reach the high temperature zones temperatures. The basictypes of geothermal power plants in use today are steamcondensing turbines, binary cycle units and cogeneration plants.• Steam condensing turbines can be used in flash or dry-steamplants operating at sites with intermediate- and high-temperatureresources (≥150°C). The power units are usually 20 to 110MWe 102 , and may utilise a multiple flash system, obtaining steamsuccessively lower pressures, to get as much energy as possiblefrom the geothermal fluid. A dry-steam plant does not requirebrine separation, resulting in a simpler and cheaper design.• Binary-cycle plants, typically organic Rankine cycle (ORC) units,typically extract heat from low- and intermediate-temperaturegeothermal fluids from hydrothermal- and EGS-type reservoirs.Binary plants are more complex than condensing ones since thegeothermal fluid (water, steam or both) passes through a heatexchanger to heat another working fluid (e.g. isopentane orisobutene) which vaporises, drives a turbine, and then is aircooled or condensed with water. Binary plants are oftenconstructed as smaller, linked modular units (a few MWe each).• Combined or hybrid plants comprise two or more of the abovebasic types to improve versatility, increase overall thermalefficiency, improve load-following capability, and efficientlycover a wide resource temperature range.9figure 9.9: schematic diagram of a geothermal condensing steam power plant (top) and a binary cycle power plant (bottom)energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESSteamWaterProduction WellSeparatorSteamWaterInjection WellTurbo GeneratorCondenserWater PumpCooling TowerCooling TowerHeat ExchangerHeat ExchangerTurbo GeneratorSteamWaterFeed PumpWater PumpsourceProduction WellInjection WellIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE,CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.references102 DIPIPPO, 2008.244

image GEOTHERMAL POWER STATION,NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.© J. GOUGH/DREAMSTIME• Cogeneration plants, or combined or cascaded heat and powerplants (CHP), produce both electricity and hot water for directuse. They can be used in relatively small industries andcommunities of a few thousand people. Iceland for example,has three geothermal runs geothermal cogeneration plants witha combined capacity of 580 MWth. 103 At the Oregon Instituteof Technology, a CHP plant provides most of the electricityneeds and all the heat demand. 104Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS): In some areas, thesubsurface regions are ‘stimulated’ to make use of geothermalenergy for power generation. This means making a reservoir bycreating or enhancing a network of fractures in the rockunderground. This allows fluid to move between the injection pointand where power is produced (production wells) (see Figurebelow 9.10). Heat is extracted by circulating water through thereservoir in a closed loop and can be used for power generationor heating via the technologies described above. Recentlydeveloped models provide insights useful for geothermalexploration and production. EGS projects are currently at ademonstration and experimental stage in a number of countries.The technology’s key challenges are creating enough reservoirswith sufficient volumes for commercial rates of energyproduction, while taking care of the water resources and avoidinginstability of the earth or seismicity (earthquake activity). 105 9figure 9.10: scheme showing conductive EGS resourcesHeatExchangerMonitoringWellReservoirMonitoringInjectionWellRechangeReservoirProductionWellsCoolingUnitORC orKalinaCycleMonitoringWellPowerDistrictHeatingenergy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES3 km to 10 kmEnhancedReservoirsourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ANDCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION. PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OFTHE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE,CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.~ 0.5 - 1.5 kmreferences103 HJARTARSON AND EINARSSON, 2010.104 LUND AND BOYD, 2009.105 TESTER ET AL., 2006.245

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES9.3.6 hydro powerWater has been used to produce electricity for about a centuryand even today it is used to generate around one fifth of theworld’s electricity. The main requirement for hydro power is tocreate an artificial head of water, that when it is diverted into achannel or pipe it has sufficient energy to power a turbine.Classification by head and sizeThe ‘head’ in hydro power refers to the difference between theupstream and the downstream water levels, determining the waterpressure on the turbines which, along with discharge, decide whattype of hydraulic turbine is used. The classification of ‘high head’and ‘low head’ varies from country to country, and there is nogenerally accepted scale.Broadly, Pelton impulse turbines are used for high heads (where ajet of water hits a turbine and reverses direction), Francis reactionturbines are used to exploit medium heads (which run full of waterand in effect generate hydrodynamic ‘lift’ to propel the turbineblades) and for low heads, Kaplan and Bulb turbines are applied.Classification according to refers to installed capacity measuredin MW. Small-scale hydropower plants are more likely to be runof-riverfacilities than are larger hydropower plants, but reservoir(storage) hydropower stations of all sizes use the same basiccomponents and technologies. It typically takes less time andeffort to construct and integrate small hydropower schemes intolocal environments 106 so their deployment is increasing in manyparts of the world. Small schemes are often considered in remoteareas where other energy sources are not viable or are noteconomically attractive.figure 9.11: run-of-river hydropower plantHeadraceDesiltingTankIntakeDiversionWeirGreenpeace supports the sustainability criteria developed bythe International Rivers Network (www.internationalrivers.org)Classification by facility typeHydropower plants are also classified in the following categoriesaccording to operation and type of flow:• run-of-river• storage (reservoir)• pumped storage, and• in-stream technology, which is a young andless-developed technology.Run-of-River: These plants draw the energy for electricity mainlyfrom the available flow of the river and do not collect significantamounts of stored water. They may include some short-termstorage (hourly, daily), but the generation profile will generally bedictated by local river flow conditions. Because generationdepends on rainfall it may have substantial daily, monthly orseasonal variations, especially when located in small rivers orstreams that with widely varying flows. In a typical plant, aportion of the river water might be diverted to a channel orpipeline (penstock) to convey the water to a hydraulic turbine,which is connected to an electricity generator (see Figure 9.11).RoR projects may form cascades along a river valley, often with areservoir-type hydro power plants in the upper reaches of thevalley. Run-of-river installation is relatively inexpensive andfacilities typically have fewer environmental impacts than similarsizedstorage hydropower plants.figure 9.12: typical hydropower plant with resevoirForebayDamPenstockPenstockPowerhousePowerhouseSwitch YardTailraceStreamTailracesourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE,CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.sourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE,CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.reference106 EGRE AND MILEWSKI, 2002246

image MOTUP TASHI, OPERATOR OF THE 30KVA MICRO-HYDRO POWER UNIT ABOVEUDMAROO VILLAGE, NUBRA BLOCK, LADAKH. FOR NINE MONTHS OF THE YEAR, THEMICRO-HYDRO POWER UNIT SUPPLIES 90 HOUSES AND SOME SMALL ENTERPRISESWITH ELECTRICITY.image LIGHTS ARE TURNED ON AT PUSHPAVATHY’S HOME IN CHEMBU, WITH THEHELP OF THEIR PICO HYDRO UNIT. RESIDENTS OF CHEMBU WITH LAND AND ACCESSTO FLOWING WATER HAVE BEGUN TO INSTALL THEIR OWN PRIVATE PICO-HYDROSYSTEMS TO BRING ELECTRICITY. THIRTY FIVE I KW SYSTEMS HAVE BEENINSTALLED IN THE PANCHAYAT BY NISARGA ENVIRONMENT TECHNOLOGIES.© H. KATRAGADDA/GP© GP/VIVEK MStorage Hydropower: Hydropower projects with a reservoir arealso called storage hydropower. The reservoir reduces dependenceon the variability of inflow and the generating stations arelocated at the dam toe or further downstream, connected to thereservoir through tunnels or pipelines. (Figure 9.12). Reservoirsare designed according to the landscape and in many parts of theworld river valleys are inundated to make an artificial lake. Ingeographies with mountain plateaus, high-altitude lakes make upanother kind of reservoir that retains many of the properties ofthe original lake. In these settings, the generating station is oftenconnected to the reservoir lake via tunnels (lake tapping). Forexample, in Scandinavia, natural high-altitude lakes create highpressure systems where the heads may reach over 1,000 m. Astorage power plant may have tunnels coming from severalreservoirs and may also be connected to neighbouring watershedsor rivers. Large hydroelectric power plants with concrete damsand extensive collecting lakes often have very negative effects onthe environment, requiring the flooding of habitable areas.figure 9.13: typical pumped storage projectUpper ReservoirPumped storage: Pumped storage plants are not generatingelectricity but are energy storage devices. In such a system, wateris pumped from a lower reservoir into an upper reservoir (Figurebelow 9.13), usually during off-peak hours when electricity ischeap. The flow is reversed to generate electricity during the dailypeak load period or at other times of need. The plant is a netenergy consumer overall, because it uses power to pump water,however the plant provides system benefits by helping to meetfluctuating demand profiles. Pumped storage is the largest-capacityform of grid energy storage now readily available worldwide.In-stream technology using existing facilities: To optimise existingfacilities like weirs, barrages, canals or falls, small turbines orhydrokinetic turbines can be installed for electricity generation.These basically function like a run-of-river scheme, as shown inFigure 9.14. Hydrokinetic devices are also being developed tocapture energy from tides and currents may also be deployedinland for free-flowing rivers and engineered waterways.Greenpeace does not support large hydro power stationswhich require large dams and flooding areas, but supportssmall scale run of river power plants.figure 9.14: typical in-stream hydropower project usingexisting facilitiesSpillwayDiversion Canal9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESPumpingGeneratingPumped StoragePower PlantIrrigation CanalSwitch YardLowerReservoirTailrace ChannelPowerhousesourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, CAMBRIDGEUNIVERSITY PRESS.sourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, CAMBRIDGEUNIVERSITY PRESS.247

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES9.3.7 ocean energyWave energyIn wave power generation, a structure interacts with the incomingwaves, converting this energy to electricity through a hydraulic,mechanical or pneumatic power take-off system. The structure ismoored or placed directly on the seabed/seashore. Power istransmitted to the seabed by a flexible submerged electrical cable andto shore by a sub-sea cable. Wave power can potentially provide apredictable supply of energy and does not create much visual impact.Many wave energy technologies are at an early phase ofconceptual development and testing. Power plants designs vary todeal with different wave motion (heaving, surging, pitching) waterdepths (deep, intermediate, shallow) and distance from shore(shoreline, nearshore, offshore).Shoreline devices are fixed to the coast or embedded in theshoreline, near shore devices work at depths of 20-25 m up to~500 m from the shore where there are stronger, moreproductive waves and offshore devices exploit the more powerfulwaves in water over 25 m deep.No particular technology is leading for wave power and severaldifferent systems are being prototyped and tested at sea, with themost development being carried out in UK. The largest gridconnectedsystem installed to date is the 2.25 MW Pelamis, withlinked semi-submerged cylindrical sections, operating off thecoast of Portugal.A generic scheme for characterising ocean wave energygeneration devices consists of primary, secondary and tertiaryconversion stages 107 , which refer to the conversions of kineticfigure 9.15: wave energy technologies: classification based on principles of operationOSCILLATING WATER COLUMNshore-basedfloatingenergy (in water) to mechanical energy, and then to electricalenergy in the generator. Recent reviews have identified more than50 wave energy devices at various stages of development 108 , andwe have not explored the limits of size in practice.Utility-scale electricity generation from wave energy will requirearrays of devices, and like wind turbines, devices are likely to bechosen for specific site conditions. Wave power converters can bemade up from connected groups of smaller generator units of 100– 500 kW, or several mechanical or hydraulically interconnectedmodules can supply a single larger turbine generator unit of 2 – 20MW. However, large waves needed to make the technology morecost effective are mostly a long way from shore which wouldrequire costly sub-sea cables to transmit the power. The convertersthemselves also take up large amounts of space.Wave energy systems may be categorised by their genus, locationand principle of operation as shown in Figure 9.15.Oscillating water columns use wave motion to induce differentpressure levels between the air-filled chamber and theatmosphere. 109 Air is pushed at high speed through an air turbinecoupled to an electrical generator (Figure 9.16), creating a pulsewhen the wave advances and recedes, as the air flows in twodirections. The air turbine rotates in the same direction, regardlessof the flow. A device can be a fixed structure above the breakingwaves (cliff-mounted or part of a breakwater), bottom mountednear shore or it can be a floating system moored in deeper waters.Oscillating-body systems use the incident wave motion to make twobodies move in oscillation; which is then used to drive the powertake-off system. 110 They can be surface devices or, more rarely,fully submerged. Surface flotation devices are generally referred toOSCILLATING BODYsurface buoyantsubmergedheaving buoysrotational jointspressure heavingsurge, hinged rotationOVERTOPPINGshore-basedfloatingnon-concentrating breakwaterconcentrating breakwatersourceFALCAO 2009.references107 KHAN ET AL., 2009.108 FALCAO, 2009; KHAN AND BHUYAN, 2009; US DOE, 2010.109 FALCAO ET AL., 2000; FALCAO, 2009.110 FALCAO, 2009.248

image TESTING THE SCOTRENEWABLES TIDALTURBINE OFF KIRWALL IN THE ORKNEY ISLANDS.© STEVE MORGAN/GPas ‘point absorbers’, because they are nondirectional. Someoscillating body devices are fully submerged and rely on oscillatinghydrodynamic pressure to extract the wave energy. Lastly, thereare hinged devices, which sit on the seabed relatively close toshore and harness the horizontal surge energy of incoming waves.Overtopping devices: convert wave energy into potential energy bycollecting surging waves into a water reservoir at a level abovethe free water surface. 111 The reservoir drains down through aconventional low-head hydraulic turbine. These systems can floatoffshore or be incorporated into shorelines or man-madebreakwaters (Figure 9.18).Power take-off systems are used to convert the kinetic energy, airflow or water flow generated by the wave energy device into auseful form, usually electricity. There large number of differentoptions for technology are described in the literature. 112 However,the overall concept is that real-time wave oscillations will producecorresponding electrical power oscillations. In practice, somemethod of short-term energy storage (durations of seconds) may beneeded to smooth energy delivery. These devices would probablydeployed in arrays because the cumulative power generated byseveral devices will be smoother than from a single device.figure 9.16: oscillating water columnsAir FlowIn-TakeAir FlowIn-TakeElectricElectricGeneratorGeneratorRotor RotorWaveTroughfigure 9.17: oscillating body systemsFalling WaterColumnsourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.Wave WaveCrest Crestfigure 9.18: overtopping devicesRising RisingWater WaterColumn Column9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESUpwardMotionFloatStationaryCenterSparReservoirOvertoppingTurbineCableMooringDownwardMotionTurbine OutletsourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE,CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.references111 FALCAO, 2009.112 KHAN AND BHUYAN, 2009.249

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESTidal rangeTidal range hydropower has been tried in estuarine developmentswhere a barrage encloses an estuary, which creates a singlereservoir (basin) behind it with conventional low-head hydroturbines in the barrage. Alternative configurations of multiplebarrages have been proposed where basins are filled and emptiedat different times with turbines located between the basins. Multibasinschemes may offer more flexible power generationavailability than normal schemes, because they could generatepower almost continuously.Recent developments focus on single or multiple offshore basins,away from estuaries, called ‘tidal lagoons’ which could providemore flexible capacity and output with little or no impact ondelicate estuarine environments. This technology usescommercially available systems and the conversion mechanismmost widely used to produce electricity from tidal range is thebulb-turbine. 113 Examples of power plants with bulb turbinestechnology include a 240 MW power plant at La Rance innorthern France 114 and the 254 MW Sihwa Barrage in theRepublic of Korea, which is nearing completion. 115Some favourable sites with very gradually sloping coastlines, arewell suited to tidal range power plants, such as the SevernEstuary between southwest England and South Wales. Currentfeasibility studies there include options such as barrages and tidallagoons.The average capacity factor for tidal power stations hasbeen estimated from 22.5% to 35%. 116Tidal and ocean currentsA device can be fitted underwater to a column fixed to the seabed with a rotor to generate electricity from fast-movingcurrents, to capture energy from tidal currents. The technologiesthat extract kinetic energy from tidal and ocean currents areunder development, and tidal energy converters the most commonto date, designed to generate as the tide travels in bothdirections. Devices types are, such as axial-flow turbines, crossflowturbines and reciprocating devices Axial-flow turbines(Figure 9.20 see below) work on a horizontal axis whilst crossflowturbines may operate about a vertical axis (Figure 9.21 seebelow) or a horizontal axis with or without a shroud toaccentuate the flow. Designs can have multiple turbines on asingle device (Figure 9.22).figure 9.19: classification of current tidal and ocean energy technologies (principles of operation)sourceIPCC 2012.AXIAL FLOWTURBINESfigure 9.20: twin turbine horizontal axis deviceCROSS FLOWTURBINESfigure 9.21: cross flow deviceRECIPROCATINGDEVICESShrouded rotor Open rotor Shrouded rotor Open rotor Vortex induced Magnus effect Flow flutterGeneratorTidalStreamRotationsourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE,CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.250sourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE,CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.references113 BOSC, 1997.114 ANDRE, 1976; DE LALEU, 2009.115 PAIK, 2008.116 CHARLIER, 2003; ETSAP 2010B.

image THE PELAMIS WAVE POWER MACHINE IN ORKNEY - ALONGSIDE IN LYNESS -THE MACHINE IS THE P2 . THE PELAMIS ABSORBS THE ENERGY OF OCEAN WAVESAND CONVERTS IT INTO ELECTRICITY. ALL GENERATION SYSTEMS ARE SEALED ANDDRY INSIDE THE MACHINES AND POWER IS TRANSMITTED TO SHORE USINGSTANDARD SUBSEA CABLES AND EQUIPMENT.image OCEAN ENERGY.© STEVE MORGAN/GP© MCDONNELL/ISTOCKMarine turbine designs look somewhat like wind turbines but theymust contend with reversing flows, cavitation and harsh underwatermarine conditions (e.g. salt water corrosion, debris, fouling, etc).Axial flow turbines must be able to respond to reversing flowdirections, while cross-flow turbines continue to operate regardlessof current flow direction. Rotor shrouds (also known as cowlings orducts) can enhance hydrodynamic performance by increasing thespeed of water through the rotor and reducing losses at the tips.Some technologies in the conceptual stage of development arebased on reciprocating devices incorporating hydrofoils or tidalsails. Two prototype oscillating devices have been trialled at opensea locations in the UK. 117The development of the tidal current resource will requiremultiple machines deployed in a similar fashion to a wind farm,and siting will need to take into account wake effects. 118Capturing the energy of open-ocean current systems is likely torequire the same basic technology as for tidal flows but withsome different infrastructure. Deep-water applications mayrequre neutrally buoyant turbine/generator modules with mooringlines and anchor systems or they could be attached to otherstructures, such as offshore platforms. 119 These modules will alsohave hydrodynamic lifting designs to allow optimal and flexiblevertical positioning. 120 Systems to capture energy from openocean current systems may have larger rotors, as there is norestriction based on the channel size.figure 9.22: vertical axis devicesourceIPCC 2012: SPECIAL REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.PREPARED BY WORKING GROUP III OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE,CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.references117 ENGINEERING BUSINESS, 2003; TSB, 2010.118 PEYRARD ET AL. 2006.119 VANZWIETEN ET AL., 2005.120 VENEZIA AND HOLT, 1995; RAYE, 2001; VANZWIETEN ET AL., 2005.121 WEISS ET AL. 2011.9.3.8 renewable heating and cooling technologiesRenewable heating and cooling has a long tradition in humanculture. Heat can come from the sun (solar thermal), the earth(geothermal), ambient heat and plant matter (biomass). Usingsolar heat for drying processes and or wood stoves for cookinghave been done for so long that they labeled “traditional”, buttoday’s technologies are far from old-fashioned. Over the lastdecade there have been improvements to a range of traditionalapplications many of which are already economical competitivewith fossil-fuel based technologies or starting to be.This chapter presents the current range of renewable heating andcooling technologies and gives a short outlook of the mostsophisticated technologies, integrating multiple suppliers andusers in heat networks or even across various renewable energysources in integrated heating and cooling systems. Some of theemerging areas for this technology are building heating andcooling and industrial process heat.Solar Thermal TechnologiesSolar thermal energy has been used for the production of heat forcenturies but has become more popular and developedcommercially for the last thirty years. Solar thermal collectingsystems are based on a centuries-old principle: the sun heats upwater contained in a dark vessel.The technologies on the market now are efficient and highlyreliable, providing energy for a wide range of applications indomestic and commercial buildings, swimming pools, forindustrial process heat, in cooling and the desalination fordrinking water.Although mature products exist to provide domestic hot waterand space heating using solar energy, in most countries they arenot yet the norm. A big step towards an Energy [R]evolution isintegrating solar thermal technologies into buildings at the designstage or when the heating (and cooling) system is being replaced,lowering the installation cost.Swimming pool heating: Pools can make simple use of freeheating, using unglazed water collectors. They are mostly made ofplastic, have no insulation and reach temperatures just a fewdegrees above ambient temperature. Collectors used for heatingswimming pools and are either installed on the ground or on anearby rooftop and they word by pumping swimming pool waterthrough the collector directly. The size of such a system dependson the size of the pool as well as the seasons in which the pool isused. The collector area needed is about 50 % to 70 % of thepool surface. The average size of an unglazed water collectorsystem installed in Europe is about 200 m 2 . 121Domestic hot water systems: The major application of solar thermalheating so far is for domestic hot water systems. Depending on theconditions and the system’s configuration, most of a building’s hotwater requirements can be provided by solar energy. Largersystems can additionally cover a substantial part of the energyneeded for space heating. Two major collector types are:2519energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESVacuum tubes The absorber inside the vacuum tube absorbsradiation from the sun and heats up the fluid inside. Additionalradiation is picked up from the reflector behind the tubes. Whateverthe angle of the sun, the round shape of the vacuum tube allows it toreach the absorber. Even on a cloudy day, when the light is comingfrom many angles at once, the vacuum tube collector can still beeffective. Most of the world’s installed systems are this type, theyare applied in the largest world market - China. This collector typeconsists of a row of evacuated glass tubes with the absorber placedinside. Due to the evacuated environment there are fewer heatlosses. The systems can reach operating temperature levels of atleast 120 °C, however, the typical use of this collector type is in therange of 60°C to 80°C. Evacuated tube collectors are more efficientthan standard flat-plate collectors but generally also more costly.Flat plate or flat panel This is basically a box with a glass coverwhich sits on the roof like a skylight. Inside is a series of copperor aluminium tubes with copper fins attached. The entirestructure is coated in a black substance designed to capture thesun’s rays. In general, flat plate collectors are not evacuated.They can reach temperatures of about 30°C to 80°C 122 and arethe most common collector type in Europe.There are two different system types for solar how water, whichinfluence the overall system costs.Thermosiphon systems The simple form of a thermosiphon solarthermal system uses gravity as a natural way to transfer hot waterfrom the collector to the storage tank. No pump or control stationis needed and many are applied as direct systems without a heatexchanger, which reduces system costs. The thermosiphon isrelatively compact, making installation and maintenance quiteeasy. The storage tank of a thermosiphon system is usually appliedright above the collector on the rooftop and it is directly exposedto the seasons. These systems are typical in warm climates, due tofigure 9.23: natural flow systems vs. forced circulation systemstheir lower efficiency compared with forced circulation systems.The most common problems are heat losses and the risk of freezeso they are not suitable for areas where temperatures drop belowfreezing point. In southern Europe, a system like this is capable ofproviding almost the total hot water demand of a household.However, the largest market for thermosiphon systems is China. InEurope, thermosiphon solar hot water systems are 95% of privateinstallations in Greece 123 , followed by 25% and 15% of newlyinstalled systems in Italy and Spain newly in 2009. 124Pumped systems The majority of systems installed in Europe areforced circulation (pumped) systems, which are far more complexand expensive than thermosiphon systems. Typically the storage tankis situated inside the house (for instance in the cellar). Anautomatic control pump circulates the water between the storagetank and the collector. Forced circulation systems are normallyinstalled with a heat exchanger, which means they have two circuits.They are mostly used in areas with low outside temperatures, andantifreeze additives might have to be added to the solar circuit toprotect the water from freezing and destroying the collector.Even though forced circulation systems are more efficient thanthermosiphon systems, they are mostly not capable of supplying thefull hot water demand in cold areas and are usually combined with aback-up system, such as heat pumps, pellet heaters or conventionalgas or oil boilers. The solar coverage of a system is the share of energyprovided by the solar system in relation to total heat consumption, e.g.space heating or hot water. Solar coverage levels depend on the heatdemand, the outside temperature and the system design. For hot waterproduction, a solar coverage of 60% in central Europe is common atthe current state of technology development. The typical collectorarea installed for a domestic hot water system in a single familyhouse in the EU 27 is 3-6 m 2 . For multifamily houses and hotels, thesize of installations is much bigger, with a typical size of 50 m 2 . 125NATURAL FLOW SYSTEM(domestic hot water)FORCED CIRCULATION SYSTEM(hot water & space heating)252reference122 WEISS ET AL. 2011.123 TRAVASAROS 2011.124 WEISS ET AL. 2011.

image THE SOLAR THERMAL PLANT SET UP BY TRANS SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, INCOLLABORATION WITH THE HOLY FAMILY HOSPITAL, NEW DELHI. A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF ASMALL SCALE, DECENTRALIZED-RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECT, THE PLANT SUPPLIES 22,000LITRES OF HOT WATER EVERYDAY TO THE HOSPITAL FOR ITS VARIOUS NEEDS. SUNNY GEORGE,THE HOSPITAL’S MAINTENANCE OFFICER IS ON THE ROOF.© GP/S. MALHOTRADomestic heat systems: Besides domestic hot water systems, solarthermal energy for space heating systems is becoming increasinglyrelevant in European countries. In fact, the EU 27 is the largestmarket for this application at the moment, with Germany andAustria as the main driving forces. The collectors used for thisarea of operation are the same as for domestic hot water systems,however, for solar space heating purposes, only pumped systemsare applicable. Effectively most systems used are so called combisystemsthat provide space as well as water heating.So far the majority of installations are applied to single-familyhouses with a typical system size between 6 and 16 m 2 and atypical annual solar coverage of 25 % in central Europe. 126Solar combi-systems for multiple family houses are not yet usedvery frequently. These systems are about 50 m 2 , cost approximately470-550 €/m 2 and an have annual solar coverage of 25% incentral Europe. 127 Large scale solar thermal applications that areconnected to a local or district heating grid with a collector areaabove 500 m 2 are not so common. However, since 1985, systeminstallation rates have increased in the EU with a typical annualsolar coverage of 15% in central Europe. 128 To get a significantsolar share a large storage needs to be applied. The typical solarcoverage of such a system including storage is around 50% today.With seasonal storage the coverage may be increased to about80%. 129 Another option for domestic heating systems is aircollector systems which are not explicitly described here. Thelargest market for air collectors are in North America and Asia,and have a very small penetration to the European market thoughit has been increasing in recent years.Process heat: Solar thermal use for industrial process heat isreceiving some attention for development, although it is hardly inuse today. Standardised systems are not available becauseindustrial processes are often individually designed. Also solarthermal applications are mostly not capable of providing 100% ofthe heat required over a year, so another non-solar heat sourcewould be necessary for commercial use.Depending on the temperature level needed, different collectorshave been developed to serve the requirements for process heat.Flat plates or evacuated tube collectors provide a temperaturerange up to 80 °C a and a large number are available on themarket. For temperatures between 80°C and 120°C advanced flatplatecollectors are available e.g. with multiple glassing,antireflective coating, evacuated or using an inert gas filling. Otheroptions are flat-plate and evacuated tube collectors withcompound parabolic concentrators. These collectors can bestationary and are generally constructed to concentrate solarradiation by a factor of 1 to 2. They can use most of the diffuseradiation which makes them especially attractive for areas withlow direct solar radiation.There are a few conceptual designs to reach higher temperaturesbetween 80°C and 180°C, primarily using a parabolic trough orlinear concentrating Fresnel collectors. 130 These collector typeshave a higher concentration factor than CPC collectors, are onlycapable of using direct solar radiation and have to be combinedwith sun tracking systems. The collectors especially designed forheat use are most suitable for a temperature range between150°C and 250°C. 131 Air collector systems for process heat arelimited to lower temperatures, being mostly used for to dryingpurposes (e.g. hay) and are not discussed here.Cooling: Solar chillers use thermal energy to produce coolingand/or dehumidify the air in a similar way to a refrigerator orconventional air-conditioning. This application is well-suited tosolar thermal energy, as the demand for cooling is often greatestwhen there is most sunshine. Solar cooling has been successfullydemonstrated and large-scale use can be expected in the future,but is still not widely used.The option to use solar heat this way makes sense because hotregions require more cooling for comfort. Solar thermal cooling ismostly designed as a closed-loop sorption system (see box 9.3).The most common application, however, is a solar absorptioncooling unit. The system requires temperatures above 80°C whichrequires evacuated tube collectors, advanced flat-plate collectorsand compound parabolic concentrators. The solar field requiredfor a cooling unit is about 4 m 2 per kW of cooling capacity.reference125 WEISS ET AL. 2011; NITSCH ET AL. 2010; JAGER ET AL. 2011.126 WEISS ET AL. 2011; NITSCH ET AL. 2010; JAGER ET AL. 2011.127 WEISS ET AL. 2011; NITSCH ET AL. 2010; JAGER ET AL. 2011.128 WEISS ET AL. 2011; NITSCH ET AL. 2010; JAGER ET AL. 2011.129 NITSCH ET AL. 2010.130 THESE COLLECTOR TYPES ARE PRIMARILY USED IN SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANTS AND REACHTEMPERATURE LEVELS AROUND 400°C. FOR THE SEGMENT OF PROCESS HEAT THESE COLLECTORTYPES WHERE DEVELOPED FURTHER TO MEET THE SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF THIS SEGMENTWITH TEMPERATURE LEVELS UP TO 250°C.131 WEISS ET AL. 2011; NITSCH ET AL. 2010; JAGER ET AL. 2011.2539energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESbox 9.3: sorption cooling unitsA thermo-chemical refrigerant cycle (sorption) providescold by either ab- or adsorption cooling. Absorption occurswhen a gaseous or liquid substance is taken up by anothersubstance, e.g. the solution of a gas in a liquid. Adsorptiontakes place when a liquid or gaseous substance is bound tothe surface of a solid material.The absorption cooling circle can be described as follows: Aliquid refrigerant with a very low boiling point is vaporisedat low pressure withdrawing heat from its environment andtherefore providing the desired cool. The gaseous refrigerantis then absorbed by a liquid solvent, mostly water. Therefrigerant and solvent are separated again by adding(renewable) heat to the system, making use of the differentboiling points. The gaseous refrigerant is now condensed,released and returned to the beginning of the process. Theheat, which is needed in the process, can be provided e.g. byfiring natural gas, combined heat and power plants or solarthermal collectors.9.3.9 geothermal, hydrothermal and aerothermal energyThe three categories of environmental heat are geothermal,hydrothermal and aerothermal energy. Geothermal energy is theenergy stored in the Earth’s crust, i.e. in rock and subsurfacefluids. The main source of geothermal energy is the internal heatflow from the Earth’s mantle and core into the crust, which itselfis replenished mainly by heat from the decay of radioactiveisotopes. At depths of a few meters, the soil is also warmed bythe atmosphere. Geothermal energy is available all year round,24 hours a day and is independent from climatic conditions.Hydrothermal energy is the energy stored in surface waters -rivers, lakes, and the sea. Hydrothermal energy is availablepermanently at temperature level similar to that of shallowgeothermal energy. Aerothermal energy is the thermal energystored in the Earth’s atmosphere, which originally comes fromthe sun, but has been buffered by the atmosphere. Aerothermalenergy is available uninterruptedly, albeit with variations inenergy content due to climatic and regional differences.Deep geothermal energy (geothermal reservoirs)On average, the crust’s temperature increases by 25-30°C perkm, reaching around 100°C at 3 km depth in most regions of theworld. High temperature fields with that reach over 180°C can befound at this depth in areas with volcanic activity. “Deepgeothermal reservoirs” generally refer to geothermal reservoirsmore than 400m depth, where reservoir temperatures typicallyexceed 50°C. Depending on reservoir temperature, deepgeothermal energy is used to generate electricity and/or to supplyhot water for various thermal applications, e.g. for district heat,balneology etc. Temperatures in geothermal reservoirs less that400m deep are typically below 30°C which is too low for mostdirect use applications or electricity production. In these shallowfields, heat pumps are applied to increase the temperature levelof the heat extracted from shallow geothermal reservoirs.The use of geothermal energy for heating purposes or for thegeneration of electricity depends on the availability of steam orhot water as a heat transfer medium. In hydrothermal systems, hotwater or water vapour can be tapped directly from the reservoir.Technologies to exploit hydrothermal systems are already wellestablished and are in operation in many parts of the world.However, the there is limited availability of aquifers with sufficienttemperature and water production rate at favourable depth. InEurope, high temperature (above 180°C) hydrothermal reservoirs,generally containing steam, are found in Iceland and Italy.Hydrothermal systems with aquifer lowers temperatures (below180°C) can also be used to produce electricity and heat in otherregions. They contain warm water or a water-steam mixture. Incontrast to hydrothermal systems, EGS systems do not require ahot aquifer; the heat carrier is the rock itself. They can thusvirtually found everywhere. The natural permeability of thesereservoirs generally does not allow a sufficient water flow fromthe injection to the production well, so energy projects require theartificial injection of water into the reservoir, which they do byfracturing rock underground. Water is injected from the surfaceinto the reservoir, where the surrounding rock acts as a heatexchanger. The heated water is pumped back to the surface tosupply a power plant or a heating network. While enhancedgeothermal systems promise large potentials both for electricitygeneration and direct use, they are still in the precommercialisationphase.Direct use of geothermal energy(Deep) geothermal heat from aquifers or deep reservoirs can beused directly in hydrothermal heating plants to supply heatdemand nearby or in a district heating network. Networks providespace heat, hot water in households and health facilities or lowtemperature process heat (industry, agriculture and services). Inthe surface unit, hot water from the production well is eitherdirectly fed into a heat distribution network (“open loopsystem”). Alternatively, heat is transferred from the geothermalfluid to a secondary heat distribution network via heatexchangers (“closed loop system”). Heating networktemperatures are typically in the range 60-100°C. However,higher temperatures are possible if wet or dry steam reservoirsare exploited or if heat pumps are switched into the heatdistribution circuit. In these cases, geothermal energy may alsosupply process heat applications which require temperaturesabove 100°C.Alternatively, deep borehole heat exchangers can exploit therelatively high temperature at depths between 300 and 3,000m(20 – 110°C) by circulating a working fluid in a borehole in aheat exchanger between the surface and the depth. Heat pumpscan be used to increase the temperature of the useful heat, ifrequired. The overall efficiency of geothermal heat use can beraised if several thermal direct-use applications with successivelower temperature levels are connected in series (concept of254

image CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER (CSP).image HOUSEHOLD HEAT PUMP CONNECTED TO A SHALLOW BOREHOLE HEATEXCHANGER IN SWEDEN.© MAXFX/DREAMSTIME© ONEHEMISPHERE.SEcascaded use). For example, dry steam at 250°C can be fed to acogeneration plant for electricity, the co-generated heat then fedinto a district heating network at 80°C, and the waste heat at40°C used to warm fishing ponds. The main costs for deep geothermalprojects are in drilling.Simultaneous production of electricity and heatIn many cases, geothermal power plants also produce heat tosupply a district heating network. There are two different optionsfor using heat; one where the geothermal fluid is separated intotwo streams which are separately used either for powerproduction or to feed the heat network. Alternatively, a heatexchanger transfers thermal energy from the geothermal fluid tothe working fluid which feeds the turbines. After the heatexchange process, the leftover heat from the geothermal fluid canbe used for heating purposes. In both cases, after the electricityproduction in the turbines waste heat is not captured as it is forcogeneration (CHP), but released into the environment.Heat pump technologyHeat pumps use the refrigeration cycle to provide heating, coolingand sanitary hot water. They employ renewable energy fromground, water and air to move heat from a relatively lowtemperature reservoir (the “source”) to the temperature level ofthe desired thermal application (the “output”). Heat pumpscommonly use two types of refrigeration cycles:• Compression heat pumps use mechanical energy, mostcommonly electric motors or combustion engines to drive thecompressor in the unit. Consequently, electricity, gas or oil isused as auxiliary energy.figure 9.24: examples for heat pump systems• Thermally-driven heat pumps use thermal energy to drive thesorption process - either adsorption or absorption - to makeambient heat useful. Different energy sources can be used asauxiliary energy: waste energy, biomass, solar thermal energy orconventional fuels.Compression heat pump are most commonly used today, howeverthermally driven units are seen as a promising future technology.The “efficiency” of a heat pump is described by the seasonalperformance factor (SPF) - the ratio between the annual usefulheat output and the annual auxiliary energy consumption of theunit. In the residential market, heat pumps work best forrelatively warm heat sources and low-temperature applicationssuch as space heating and sanitary hot water. They are lessefficient for providing higher temperature heat and can’t be usedfor heat over 90°C. For industrial applications, differentrefrigerants can be used to provide heat from 80°C to 90°Cefficiently, so they are only suitable for part of the energyrequirements of industry.Heat pumps are generally distinguished by the heat source they exploit:• Ground source heat pumps use the energy stored in the groundat depths from around hundred meter to the surface, they areused for deep borehole heat exchangers (300 – 3,000m),shallow borehole heat exchangers (50-250m) and horizontalborehole heat exchangers (a few meters deep).• Water source heat pumps are coupled to a (relatively warm)water reservoir of around 10°C, e.g. wells, ponds, rivers, the sea.• Aerothermal heat pumps use the outside air as heat source. Asoutside temperatures during the heating period are generallylower than soil and water temperature, ground source andwater source heat pumps typically more efficient thanaerothermal heat pumps.9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESLEFT: AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMP, MIDDLE: GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP WITH HORIZONTAL COLLECTOR, RIGHT: WATER SOURCE HEAT PUMP(OPEN LOOP SYSTEM WITH TWO WELLS)source© GERMAN HEAT PUMP ASSOCIATION (BWP).255

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESHeat pumps require additional energy apart from theenvironmental heat extracted from the heat source, so theirenvironmental benefit depends on both their efficiency and theemissions related to the production of the working energy. Wherethe heat pump technology has low SPF and a high share ofelectricity from coal power plants, for example, carbon dioxideemissions relative to useful heat production might higher thanconventional gas condensing boilers. On the other hand, efficientheat pumps powered with “green” electricity are 100% emissionfreesolutions that contribute significantly to the reduction ofgreenhouse gas emissions when used in place of fossil-fuel firedheating systems.box 9.4: typical heat pump specificationsUsually provide hot water or space heat at lowertemperatures, around 35°CExample uses: underfloor/wall heatingTypical size for space heating a single family housepurposes: approx 5-10 kWthTypical size for space heating a large office building: >100 kWth.Aerothermal heat pumps do not require drilling whichsignificantly reduces system costs compared to other types.If waste heat from fossil fuel fired processes is used as heatsource for this technology, the heat provided cannot be classifiedas “renewable” - it becomes merely an efficient way of makingbetter use of energy otherwise wasted.Heat pumps for coolingReversible heat pumps can be operated both in heating and in coolingmode. When running in cooling mode in summer, heat is extractedfrom the building and “pumped” into the underground reservoir whichis then heated. In this way, the temperature of the warm reservoir inthe ground is restored after its exploitation in winter.Alternatively, renewable cooling could be provided by circulating acooling fluid through the relatively cool ground before beingdistributed in a building’s heating/cooling system (“free cooling”).However this cooling fluid must not be based on chemicals thatare damaging to the upper atmosphere such as HFC’s ( a stronggreenhouse gas) or CFC’s (ozone-depleting gas).In principle, high enthalpy geothermal heat might provide theenergy needed to drive an absorption chiller (see Box 9.3:Sorption cooling units). However, only a very limited number ofgeothermal absorption chillers are in operation world-wide.box 9.5: district heat networksHeat networks are preferably used in populated areas suchas large cities. Their advantages include reduction of localemissions, higher efficiency (in particular withcogeneration), or a lesser need for infrastructures that goalong with individual heating solutions. Generally heat fromall sources can be used in heat networks. However, there aresome applications like cogeneration technologies that havea special need for a secure heat demand provided by heatnetworks to be able to operate economically.Managing the variations in heat supply and demand is vitalfor high shares of renewables, which is more challenging forspace heat and hot water than for electricity. Heat networkshelp even out peaks in demand by connecting a largenumber of clients, and supply can be adjusted by tappingvarious renewable sources and relatively cheap storageoptions. The use of an existing heat network for renewableheat depends on the competitiveness of the new heatapplications or plants. The development of new gridshowever is not an easy task.The relevant factors to assess whether a new heat networkis economically competitive compared to other heating orcooling options are:• Heat density (heat demand per area) of buildinginfrastructure, depending on housing density and thespecific heat demand of the buildings• Obligation to connect to the network (leads to highereffective heat density)• Existing buildings’ infrastructure or newly developedareas, where grid installation can be integrated inbuilding site preparation• Existence of competing infrastructures such as gas grids• Size of the heat network and distance to the remotest clientThe combination and interdependence of these factorsmean the costs of a heat network are highly variable andproject-specific so no general indication of investment costcan be made. A German example in 2009 was thedevelopment of heat networks under the market incentiveprogram which had average investment costs (includingbuilding connection) in the range of 350 to 460 €/kW.256

image BIOMASS ENERGY PLANT NEAR VARNAMO,SMÅLAND, SWEDEN.© ONEHEMISPHERE.SE9.3.10 biomass heating technologiesThere is a broad portfolio of technologies for heat productionavailable from biomass, a traditional fuel source. A need for moresustainable energy supply has lead to the development of modernbiomass technologies. A high variety of new or modernisedtechnologies or technology combinations can serve space andwarm water needs but eventually also provide process heat evenfor industrial processes.Biomass can provide a large temperature range of heat and canbe transported over long distances, which is an advantagecompared to solar thermal or geothermal heat. However,sustainable biomass imposes limits on volume and transportdistance. Another disadvantage of bioenergy is the production ofexhaust emissions and the risk of greenhouse gas emissions fromenergy crop cultivation.These facts lead to two approaches to biomass development:• Towards improved, relatively small-scale, decentralised systemsfor space heat and hot water.• Development of various highly efficient and upgraded biomasscogeneration systems for industry and district heating.Small applications for space heat and hot water in buildingsIn the residential sector, the traditional applications of biomasstechnologies have been strongly improved over the last decadesfor efficient and comfortable space heating and warm watersupply. The standard application is direct combustion of solidbiomass (wood), for example in familiar but improved wood logstoves that supply single rooms. For average single homes andsmall apartment houses, log wood or pellet boilers are an optionto provide space heat and hot water. Wood is easy to handle and astandardized quality and the pellet systems can be automatedalong the whole chain, meaning that operation activities can bereduced to a few times a year. Automatically-fed systems aremore easily adaptable to variations in heat demand e.g. betweensummer and winter. Another advantage is lower emissions of airpollutants from pellet appliances compared to log wood. 132 Pelletheating systems are gaining importance in Europe.Handfed systems are common for smaller applications below 50kW. Small applications for single rooms (around 5kW capacity)are usually hand fed wood stoves with rather low efficiency and lowcosts. Technologies are available for central heating in single andsemi-detached houses and are also an option for apartment houses.Wood boilers provide better combustion with operating efficienciesof 70-85% and fewer emissions than stoves with a typical sizes of10-50 kW. 133 Larger wood boilers can heat large buildings such asapartment blocks, office buildings or other large buildings inservice, commerce and industry with space heat and hot water.Direct heating technologies: Large applications for district orprocess heat rely on automatic feeding technologies, due toconstant heat demand at a defined temperature. Directcombustion of biomass can provide temperatures up to 1,000°C,with higher temperatures for wood and lower temperatures e.g.for straw. Automatically fed appliances are available for woodchips and pellets as well as for straw. Three combustion types,after Kaltschmitt et al. 2009 are:Cogeneration technologies Cogeneration increases the efficiency ofusing biomass, if the provided heat can be used efficiently. The sizeof a plant is limited due to the lower energy content of biomasscompared to fossil fuels and resulting difficulties in the fuellogistics. Selection of the appropriate cogeneration technologydepends on the available biomass. In several Scandinaviancountries – with an extraordinarily high potential of forestbiomass - solid biomass is already a main fuel for cogenerationprocesses. Finland derives already over 30% and Sweden even70% of its co-generated -electricity from biomass. 134Direct combustion technologies The cogeneration processes can bebased on direct combustion types (fixed bed combustion, fluidisedbed combustion, pulverised fuel combustion). While steam enginesare available from 50 kWel, steam turbines normally cover therange above 2 MWel, with special applications available from 0.5MWel. The heat is typically generated at 60- 70% efficiencydepending on the efficiency of the power production process, whichin total can add up to 90%. 135 Thus, small and medium cogenerationplants provide three to five times more heat than power, with localheat demand often being the limiting factor for the plant size.Upgraded biomass Besides direct combustion, there are variousconversion technologies use to upgrade biomass products for usein specific applications and for higher temperatures. Commoncurrently available technologies are (upgraded) biogas productionand gasification, and other technologies like pyrolysis andproduction of synthetic gases or oils are under development.Gasification is especially valuable in the case of biomass with lowcaloric value or when it includes moisture. Partial oxidation ofthe biomass fuel provides a combustible gas mixture mainlyconsisting of carbon monoxide (CO). Gasification can providehigher efficiency along the whole biomass chain, however at theexpense of additional investments for the more sophisticatedtechnology. There are many different gasification systems basedon varying fuel input, gasification technology and combinationwith gas turbines. Available literature shows a large cost rangefor gasification cogeneration plants. Assumptions on costs of thegasification processes vary strongly.9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESreference132 GEMIS 2011.133 NITSCH ET AL. 2010; GEMIS 2011; AEBIOM 2011B.134 THESE COLLECTOR TYPES ARE PRIMARILY USED IN SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANTS AND REACHTEMPERATURE LEVELS AROUND 400°C. FOR THE SEGMENT OF PROCESS HEAT THESE COLLECTORTYPES WHERE DEVELOPED FURTHER TO MEET THE SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF THIS SEGMENTWITH TEMPERATURE LEVELS UP TO 250°C.135 IBID.257

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESOther upgrading processes are biogas upgrading for feed-in to thenatural gas grid or the production of liquid biomass, such asplant oil, ethanol or second generation fuels. Those technologiescan be easily exchangeable with fossil fuels, but the low efficiencyof the overall process and energy input needed to produce energycrops are disadvantages for sustainability.BiogasBiogas plants use anaerobic digestion of bacteria for conversionof various biomass substrates into biogas. This gas mainlyconsists of methane, a gas of high caloric value, CO2 and water.Anaerobic digestion can be used to upgrade organic matter withlow energy density, such as organic waste and manure. Thesesubstrates usually contain large water contents and appear liquid.“Dry” substrates need additional water.Liquid residues like wastes and excrements would be energeticallyunused and biogas taps into their calorific potential. The residueof the digestion process is used as a fertiliser, which has higheravailability of nitrogen and is more valuable than theinput substrates. 139Methane is a strong greenhouse gas, so biogas plants need airtightcovers for the digestate, to maintain low emissions. 137 Residues andwastes are preferable for biogas compared with energy crops suchas corn silage which require energy and fertilizer inputs whilegrowing which themselves create greenhouse gas emissions.Biogas plants usually consist of a digester for biogas productionand a cogeneration plant. Planst are range of sizes and arenormally fed by a mixture of substrates for example manuremixed with maize silage, grass silage, other energy crops and/ororganic wastes. 138Normally biogas is normally used in cogeneration. In Germany, thefeed-in tariff means biogas production currently is mostly forpower and the majority of biogas plants are on farms in ruralareas. Small biogas plants often use the produced heat for localspace heating or to provide process heat e.g. for drying processes.Larger biogas plants need access to a heat network to make gooduse of all the available heat. However, network access is often notavailable in rural areas so there is still untapped potential of heatconsumption from biogas. Monitoring of German biogas plantsshowed that 50% of available heat was actually wasted. 139 Theconditioning and enriching of biogas and subsequent feed in intothe gas grid has been promoted lately and should become anoption to use biogas directly at the location of heat demand.Upgrading technologies for biomass do bear the risk of additionalmethane emissions so tight emission standards are necessary toachieve real reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. 1409.3.11 storage technologiesAs the share of electricity provided by renewable sourcesincreases around the world the technologies and policies requiredto handle their variability is also advancing. Along with the gridrelatedand forecasting solutions discussed in Chapter 3, energystorage is a key part of the Energy [R]evolution.Once the share of electricity from variable renewable sourcesexceeds 30-35%, energy storage is necessary in order tocompensate for generation shortages or to store possible surpluselectricity generated during windy and sunny periods. Todaystorage technology is available for different stages ofdevelopment, scales of projects, and for meeting both short- andlong-term energy storage needs. Short-term storage technologiescan compensate for output fluctuations that last only a fewhours, whereas longer term or seasonal storage technologies canbridge the gap over several weeks.Short-term options include batteries, flywheels, compressed airpower plants and pump storage power stations with highefficiency factors. The later is also used for long term storage.Perhaps the most promising of these options is electric vehicles(EVs) with Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) capability, which can increaseflexibility of the power system by charging when there is surplusrenewable generation and discharging while parked to take uppeaking capacity or ancillary services to the power system.Vehicles are often parked close to main load centres during peaktimes (e.g., outside factories) so there would be no networkissues. However battery costs are currently very high andsignificant logistical challenges remain.Seasonal storage technologies include hydro pumped storage andthe production of hydrogen or renewable methane. While thelatter two options are currently in the development with severaldemonstration projects mainly in Germany, pumped storage hasbeen in use around the world for more than a century.258reference136 KALTSCHMITT ET AL. 2009.137 PEHNT ET AL. 2007.138 IEA 2007; NITSCH ET AL. 2010.139 DBFZ 2010.140 GÄRTNER ET AL. 2008.

image BIOMASS.image A VILLAGER NAGARATHNAMMA LOADING THE BIOGAS UNIT WITH A MIXTUREOF COW DUNG AND WATER. THE COMMUNITY IN BAGEPALLI HAS PIONEERED THEUSE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN ITS DAILY LIFE THANKS TO THE BIOGAS CLEANDEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM) PROJECT STARTED IN 2006.© U. HERING/DREAMSTIME© VIVEK M/GPPumped StoragePumped Storage Pumped storage is the largest-capacity formof grid energy storage now available and currently the mostimportant technology to manage high shares of wind and solarelectricity. It is a type of hydroelectric power generation 141 thatstores energy by pumping water from a lower elevation reservoirto a higher elevation during times of low-cost, off-peak electricityand releasing it through turbines during high demand periods.While pumped storage is currently the most cost-effective meansof storing large amounts of electrical energy on an operatingbasis, capital costs and appropriate geography are criticaldecision factors in building new infrastructure. Losses associatedwith the pumping and water storage process make such plantsnet consumers of energy; accounting for evaporation andconversion losses, approximately 70-85% of the electrical energyused to pump water into the elevated reservoir can be recapturedwhen it is released.Renewable Methane Both gas plants and cogeneration units canbe converted to operate on renewable methane, which can bemade from renewable electricity and used to effectively storeenergy from the sun and wind. Renewable methane can be storedand transported via existing natural gas infrastructure, and cansupply electricity when needed. Gas storage capacities can closeelectricity supply gaps of up to two months, and the smart linkbetween power grid and gas network can allow for gridstabilisation. Expanding local heat networks, in connection withpower grids or gas networks, would enable the electricity storedas methane to be used in cogeneration units with high overallefficiency factors, providing both heat and power. 142 There arecurrently several pilot projects in Germany in the range of one totwo- Megawatt size, but not in a larger commercial scale yet. Ifthose pilot projects are successful, a commercial scale can beexpected between 2015 and 2020. However, policy support, toencourage the commercialisation of storage is still lacking.figure 9.25: overview storage capacity of differentenergy storage systemsDischarge time [hours]10,0001,0001001010.10.010.001FlywheelsBatteriesCAESPHSH2SNGMethanfigure 9.26: renewable (power) (to) methane- renewable gasSTORING RENEWABLE POWER AS RENEWABLE AS NATURAL GASBY LINKING ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS NETWORKSWINDSOLAROTHERRENEWABLESELECTRICITYNETWORKCHP,TURBINESPOWER STORAGEPOWER GENERATIONNATURAL GASNETWORK• for heat• for transportGASSTORAGE9energy technologies | RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES1 kWh10 kWhsourceFRAUNHOFER INSTITUT, 2010.100 kWh1 MWh10 MWh100 MWh1 GWh10 GWh100 GWh1 TWh10 TWh100 TWh• Fossil fuels• Biomass, waste• AtmosphereCO2H2OO2Electrolysis,H2 TankCO2 TankH2CO2MethanationCH4H2OWindmethaneSolarmethaneRenewable Power Methane PlantsourceIWES ZSW.references141 CONVENTIONAL HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT STORAGE CAPACITY MAY BEABLE TO PLAY A SIMILAR ROLE IN THE ELECTRICAL GRID AS PUMPED STORAGE, BY DEFERRINGOUTPUT UNTIL NEEDED.142 FRAUNHOFER IWS, ERNEUERBARES METHAN KOPPLUNG VON STROM- UND GASNETZ M.SC. MAREIKEJENTSCH, DR. MICHAEL STERNER (IWES), DR. MICHAEL SPECHT (ZSW), TU CHEMNITZ,SPEICHERWORKSHOP CHEMNITZ, 28.10.2010.259

energy efficiency – more with lessMETHODOLOGYEFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY1010LOW ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIO:INDUSTRYRESULTS FOR INDUSTRYBUILDINGS AND AGRICULTURETHE STANDARD HOUSEHOLDCONCEPTLOW ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIO:BUILDINGS AND AGRICULTURERESULTS FOR BUILDINGSAND AGRICULTURE“today we arewasting twothirds (61%) of theelectricity we consume,mostly due to badproduct design.”© NASA/JESSE ALLENimage THE SUNDARBANS OF INDIA AND BANGLADESH IS THE LARGEST REMAINING TRACT OF MANGROVE FOREST IN THE WORLD. A TAPESTRY OF WATERWAYS, MUDFLATS, AND FORESTEDISLANDS AT THE EDGE OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. HOME TO THE ENDANGERED BENGAL TIGER, SHARKS, CROCODILES, AND FRESHWATER DOLPHINS, AS WELL AS NEARLY TWO HUNDRED BIRDSPECIES, THIS LOW-LYING PLAIN IS PART OF THE MOUTHS OF THE GANGES. THE AREA HAS BEEN PROTECTED FOR DECADES BY THE TWO COUNTRIES AS A NATIONAL PARK.260

image STANDBY.image WORK TEAM APPLYING STYROFOAM WALL INSULATION TO A NEWLYCONSTRUCTED BUILDING.© DREAMSTIME© K. STOZEK/DREAMSTIMEUsing energy efficiently is cheaper than producing new energy fromscratch and often has many other benefits. An efficient clotheswashing machine or dishwasher, for example, uses less power andsaves water too. Efficiency in buildings doesn’t mean going without– it should provide a higher level of comfort. A well-insulatedhouse, will feel warmer in the winter, cooler in the summer and behealthier to live in. An efficient refrigerator is quieter, has no frostinside, no condensation outside and will probably last longer.Efficient lighting offers more light where you need it. Efficiency isthus really better described as ‘more with less’.There are very simple steps to efficiency both at home and inbusiness, through updating or replacing separate systems orappliances, that will save both money and energy. But the biggestsavings don’t come from incremental steps but from rethinkingthe whole concept - ‘the whole house’, ‘the whole car’ or even ‘thewhole transport system’. In this way, energy needs can often becut back by four to ten times.In order to find out the global and regional energy efficiencypotential, the Dutch institute Ecofys developed energy demandscenarios for the Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution analysis in2008, which have now been updated by the Utrecht University forthe 2012 model. These scenarios cover energy demand over theperiod 2009-2050 for ten world regions. In contrast to theReference scenario, based on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2011(WEO 2011), a low energy demand scenario for energy efficiencyimprovements has been defined. In this edition, the transport sectorhas been separated from the stationary energy research. Theefficiency scenario is based on the best technical energy efficiencypotentials and takes into account into account implementationconstraints including costs and other barriers. This scenario iscalled ‘ER’ and has been compared to the IEA’s 450ppm scenario– published in the WEO 2011. The main results of the study aresummarised below.10.1 methodology for the energy demand projectionsThis section explains the methodology for developing the energydemand projections. The approach includes two steps:1.Definition of reference energy demand2.Development of low energy demand scenarios includingpotentials for energy-efficiency improvementStep 1: definition of reference scenarioIn order to estimate potentials for energy-efficiency improvement in2050 a detailed reference scenario is required that projects thedevelopment of energy demand when current trends continue. In theReference scenario – the World Energy Outlook 2011 “Currentpolicy” 143 only currently adopted energy and climate change policiesare implemented. Technological change including efficiencyimprovement is slow but substantial and mainly triggered byincreased energy prices. 144 The Reference scenario covers energydemand development in the period 2009-2050 for ten world regionsand three sectors:• Transport• Industry• Other (also referred to as “buildings and agriculture”).Within the energy industry and other sectors a distinction ismade between electricity demand and fuel and heat demand.Heat demand mainly consists of district heating from heat plantsand from combined heat and power plants. Fuel and heat demandis referred to as ‘fuel demand’ in the figures that follow. Theenergy demand scenario focuses only on energy-related fuel,power and heat use. This means that feedstock consumption inindustries is excluded from the analysis. Total final consumptiondata in WEO includes non-energy use. By assuming that the shareof non-energy use remains the same as in the base year 2009 wedetermine the energy-related fuel use beyond 2009.Transport efficiencies were calculated by the DLR Institute ofVehicle Concepts and are documented in chapter 11.Figure 10.1 shows the Reference scenario for final energydemand for the world per sector.figure 10.1: final energy demand (PJ)in reference scenario per sector worldwide600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000PJ/a 02009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050OTHER - ELECTRICITYOTHER - FUELSINDUSTRY - ELECTRICITYINDUSTRY - FUELS (EXCLUDING FEEDSTOCKS)• TRANSPORTWorldwide final energy demand is expected to grow by 75%,from 304 ExaJoule (EJ) in 2009 to 523 EJ in 2050. Thetransport sector has the largest relative growth, with energydemand expected to grow from 82 EJ in 2009 to 151 EJ in2050. Fuel demand in others sectors is expected to grow slowestfrom 91 EJ in 2009 to 119 EJ in 2050.references143 IEA WEO 2011, NOV 2011, PARIS/FRANCE.144 IEA WEO 2011, NOV 2011, PARIS/FRANCE.26110energy efficiency | METHODOLOGY FOR THE ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK10energy efficiency | METHODOLOGY FOR THE ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONSfigure 10.2: final energy demand (PJ)in reference scenario per region600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000OECD ASIA OCEANIALATIN AMERICAMIDDLE EAST•EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAAFRICAFigure 10.2 shows the final energy demand per region in theReference scenario.In the Reference scenario, final energy demand in 2050 will belargest in China (112 EJ), followed by OECD Americas (81 EJ) andOECD Europe (59 EJ). Final energy demand in OECD Asia Oceaniaand Latin America will be lowest (21 EJ and 31 EJ respectively).Figure 10.3 shows the development of final energy demand percapita per region.262NON OECD ASIAINDIAOECD EUROPEOECD AMERICAS• CHINAfigure 10.3: final energy demand per capitain reference scenarioFinal energy demand (GJ / capita)PJ/a 01601401201008060402002009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050WORLDOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINANON OECD ASIALATIN AMERICAMIDDLE EASTAFRICAThere would still be large differences between regions for finalenergy demand per capita in 2050 in the Reference scenario.Energy demand per capita is expected to be highest in OECDAmericas and Eastern Europe/Eurasia (130 GJ/capita), followedby OECD Asia Oceania and OECD Europe (111 and 98GJ/capita respectively). Final energy demand in Africa, India,Non OECD Asia, and Latin America is expected to be lowest,ranging from 19-56 GJ/capita.Step 2: development of low energy demand scenariosThe low energy demand scenarios are based on literature studiesand new calculations. The scenarios take into account:• The implementation of best practice technologies and a certainshare of emerging technologies.• No behavioral changes or loss in comfort levels.• No structural changes in the economy, other than occurring inthe Reference scenario.• Equipment and installations are replaced at the end of their(economic) lifetime, so no early retirement.The selection of measures is based on the current worldwideenergy use per sector and sub sector. Figure 10.4 shows abreakdown of final energy demand in the world by the mostimportant sub-sectors in the base year 2009.figure 10.4: final energy demand for the world by subsector and fuel source in 2009 (IEA ENERGY BALANCES 2011)120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 0Transport Industry Residential Commercialand publicservicesRENEWABLE ENERGYNATURAL GAS• OILOther

image A ROOM AT A NEWLY CONSTRUCTED HOME IS SPRAYED WITH LIQUIDINSULATING FOAM BEFORE THE DRYWALL IS ADDED.image FUTURISTIC SOLAR HEATED HOME MADE FROM CEMENT AND PARTIALLYCOVERED IN THE EARTH.© KELPFISH/DREAMSTIME© INDYKB/DREAMSTIME10.2 efficiency in industry10.2.1 energy demand reference scenario: industryFigure 10.5 gives the reference scenario for final energy demandin industries in the period 2009-2050. As can be seen, the energydemand in Chinese industries is expected to be huge in 2050 andamount to 54 EJ. The energy demand in all other regionstogether is expected to be 118 EJ, meaning that China accountsfor 31% of worldwide energy demand in industries in 2050.Figure 10.7 shows a breakdown of final energy demand by subsector in industry worldwide for the base year 2009. The largestenergy consuming sectors in industry are chemical andpetrochemical industry, iron and steel and non-metallic minerals.Together the sectors consume about 50% of industrial energydemand. Since these three sectors are relatively large we look atthem in detail. Also we look at aluminium production in detail,which is in the category of non-ferrous metals. This is because theshare of aluminium production makes up nearly 11% of totalindustrial energy demand in 2009.figure 10.5: projection of industrial energy demandin period 2009-2050 per regionfigure 10.7: breakdown of final energy consumption in2009 by sub sector for industry (IEA ENERGY BALANCES 2011)60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000PJ/a 02009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050OECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINANON OECD ASIALATIN AMERICAMIDDLE EASTAFRICAFigure 10.6 shows the share of industrial energy use in total energydemand per region for the years 2009 and 2050. Worldwide,industry consumers about 30% of total final energy demand onaverage, both in 2009 as in 2050. The share in Africa is lowest with20% in 2050. The share in China is highest with 48% in 2050.100 %90 %80 %70 %60 %50 %40 %30 %20 %10 %0 %2009NON-SPECIFIED (INDUSTRY)WOOD & WOOD PRODUCTSTRANSPORT EQUIPMENTCONSTRUCTIONTEXTILE & LEATHERMINING & QUARRYINGNON-FERROUS METALSMACHINERYPAPER, PULP & PRINTINGFOOD & TOBACCONON-METALLIC MINERALS•CHEMICAL & PETROCHEMICALIRON & STEELFor all sectors we look at implementing best practicetechnologies, increased recycling and increased materialefficiency. Where possible the potentials are based on specificenergy consumption data in physical units (MJ/tonne steel,MJ/tonne aluminium etc.).10energy efficiency | EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRYfigure 10.6: share of industry in total final energy demand per region in 2009 and 205055%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%WORLDOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTAFRICA• 2009• 2050263

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK10.3 low energy demand scenario: industryThe overall technical potential is estimated after identifying themost significant energy-efficiency improvements. In the Referencescenario, some of these energy-efficiency improvements havealready been implemented (autonomous and policy induced energyefficiencyimprovement). However, the level of energy-efficiencyimprovement in the Reference scenario is unknown, we thereforeassume that it is equal to 1% per year for all regions, based onhistorical developments of energy-efficiency. 145 Therefore, thetechnical potential in the low energy demand scenarios is thetechnical potential identified that has not already beenimplemented in the Reference scenario.Table 10.1 shows the resulting savings potential for industrycompared to the Reference scenario per region in 2050. These arebased on the technical potentials with the subtraction of the energyefficiencyimprovement already included in the Reference scenario.table 10.1: reduction of energy use in comparison to the reference scenario per sector in 205010energy efficiency | LOW ENERGY DEMAN SCENARIO: INDUSTRYOECD EuropeOECD North AmericaOECD Asia OceaniaChinaLatin AmericaAfricaMiddle EastEastern Europe/EurasiaIndiaNon OECD AsiaWorldIRON & STEELIndustryfuels45%64%51%69%79%70%52%79%63%33%66%Industryelectricity45%64%51%69%79%70%52%79%63%33%66%ALUMINIUMPRODUCTIONIndustryfuels40%40%40%40%40%40%0%40%40%40%40%Industryelectricity38%38%38%38%38%38%38%38%38%38%38%CHEMICALINDUSTRYIndustryfuels32%32%32%32%32%32%32%32%32%32%32%Industryelectricity7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%NON-METALLICMINERALSIndustryfuels0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%Industryelectricity0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%table 10.2: share of technical potentials implemented in the energy [r]evolution scenarioINDUSTRY - FUELSOECD North AmericaOECD Asia OceaniaOECD EuropeEastern Europe/EurasiaIndiaChinaNon OECD AsiaLatin AmericaMiddle EastAfricaWorld200990%90%85%95%80%85%95%90%70%70%80%201590%90%85%95%80%85%95%90%70%70%80%202090%90%85%95%80%85%95%90%70%70%80%202590%90%85%95%80%85%95%90%70%70%80%203090%90%85%95%80%85%95%90%70%70%80%203590%90%85%95%80%85%95%90%70%70%80%PULP & PAPERIndustryfuels10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%204090%90%85%95%80%85%95%90%70%70%80%Industryelectricity10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%OTHERINDUSTRIESIndustryfuels48%48%48%48%48%48%48%48%48%48%48%204590%90%85%95%80%85%95%90%70%70%80%Industryelectricity48%48%48%48%48%48%48%48%48%48%48%205090%90%85%95%80%85%95%90%70%70%80%INDUSTRY ELECTRICITYOECD North AmericaOECD Asia OceaniaOECD EuropeEastern Europe/EurasiaIndiaChinaNon OECD AsiaLatin AmericaMiddle EastAfricaWorld80%70%80%80%70%70%70%70%80%70%80%80%70%80%80%70%70%70%70%80%70%80%80%70%80%80%70%70%70%70%80%70%80%80%70%80%80%70%70%70%70%80%70%80%80%70%80%80%70%70%70%70%80%70%80%80%70%80%80%70%70%70%70%80%70%80%80%70%80%80%70%70%70%70%80%70%80%80%70%80%80%70%70%70%70%80%70%80%80%70%80%80%70%70%70%70%80%70%80%reference145 ECOFYS (2005), BLOK (2005), ODYSSEE (2005), IEA (2011C).264

images POWER SOCKETS AND SWITCH.© GOORY/DREAMSTIME© MBI/DREAMSTIMEFor the Energy [R]evolution scenarios we assume that a certainshare of these potentials is implemented. This share is differentper region as shown in Table 10.2.10.4 results for industry: efficiency pathwayof the energy [r]evolutionFigure 10.8 shows the energy demand scenarios for the sectorindustry on a global level. Energy demand in electricity can befigure 10.8: global final energy use in the period2009-2050 in industryreduced by 33% and 35% for fuel use, in comparison to thereference level in 2050. In comparison to 2009, global fuel use inindustry increases slightly from 71 EJ to 72 EJ and electricityuse shows a stronger increase from 24 EJ to 43 EJ.Figures 10.9, 10.10 and 10.11 show the final energy demand inthe sector industries per region for total energy demand, fuel useand electricity use, respectively.figure 10.10: fuel/heat use in sector industries120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000PJ/a 02009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050INDUSTRY - FUELS - REFERENCEINDUSTRY - FUELS - ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION•INDUSTRY - ELECTRICITY - REFERENCEINDUSTRY - ELECTRICITY - ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONfigure 10.9: final energy use in sector industries30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0OECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA2009•2050 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASfigure 10.11: electricity use in sector industriesMIDDLE EASTAFRICA10energy efficiency | RESULTS FOR INDUSTRY60,00030,00050,00025,00040,00020,00030,00015,00020,00010,00010,0005,000PJ/a 0PJ/a 0OECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTAFRICAOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTAFRICA2009•2050 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2009•2050 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION265

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK10.5 buildings and agriculture10.5.1 energy demand reference scenario:buildings and agricultureEnergy consumed in buildings and agriculture (summarized as“Other Sectors”) represents 40% of global energy consumption in2009 (see Figure 10.12). In most regions the share of residentialenergy demand is larger than the share of commercial and publicservices energy demand (except in OECD Asia Oceania). Sinceenergy use in agriculture is relatively small (globally only 6% of thissector) we do not look at this sector in detail but assume the sameenergy saving potentials as in residential and commercial combined.In the Reference scenario, energy demand in buildings andagriculture is forecasted to grow considerably (see Figure 10.14).figure 10.12: breakdown of energy demand in buildingsand agriculture in 2009 (IEA ENERGY BALANCES 2011)Figure 10.13 shows that energy demand in buildings and agriculturein 2050 is highest in OECD Americas, followed by China and OECDEurope. Latin America, OECD Asia Oceania and Middle East havethe lowest energy demand for buildings and agriculture.The share of fuel and electricity use by buildings and agriculturein total energy demand in 2009 and 2050 are shown in Figure10.14. India and Africa have the highest share of buildings andagriculture in total final energy demand. Until 2050, a sharpdecrease is expected in India. Globally it is expected thatelectricity use in this sector will be relatively more important in2050 than in 2009 (16% instead of 12%) and fuel use will berelatively less important (23% instead of 30%).figure 10.13: energy demand in buildingsand agriculture in reference scenario per region10energy efficiency | BUILDINGS AND AGRICULTURE100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%WORLDOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIANON-SPECIFIED (OTHER)• FISHINGAGRICULTURE/FORESTRYOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTfigure 10.14: share electricity and fuel consumption by buildings and agriculturein total final energy demand in 2009 and 2050 in the reference scenarioAFRICA•COMMERCE AND PUBLIC SERVICES• RESIDENTIAL40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000PJ/a 02009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050OECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINANON OECD ASIALATIN AMERICAMIDDLE EASTAFRICA70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%266WORLDOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTAFRICA2009 FUELS2009 ELECTRICITY•2050 FUELS2050 ELECTRICITY

image FRIDGE.image POWER PLUGS.© T. TROJANOWSKI/DREAMSTIME© CREASENCESRO/DREAMSTIME10.5.2 fuel and heat useFuels and heat use represent the largest share of total finalenergy use in this sector, see Figure 10.15. The share ranges from52% for OECD Asia Oceania to 92% for Africa.The residential sector has the largest end-use for fuels and heatuse, see Figure 10.16. Its share ranges from 45% in OECD AsiaOceania to 94% in Africa.Currently the largest share of fuel and heat use in this sector is usedfor space heating. The breakdown of fuel use per function is differentper region. In the [R]evolution scenario a convergence is assumed forthe different types of fuel demand per region. The followingbreakdown for fuel use in 2050 is assumed for most regions: 145• space heating (80%)• hot water (15%)• cooking (5%)A summary of possible energy saving measures for each of thethree types of fuel/heat use is provided here.Space heating Energy-efficiency improvement for space heatingis indicated by the energy demand per m 2 floor area per heatingdegree day (HDD). Heating degree day is the number of degreesthat a day’s average temperature is below 18°C. Typical currentheating demand for dwellings in OECD countries is70-120 kJ/m 2 /HDD (based on IEA, 2007) but those with betterfigure 10.15: breakdown of final energy demand in 2009for electricity and fuels/heat in ‘others’(IEA ENERGY BALANCES 2011)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%efficiency consume below 32 kJ/m 2 /HDD. 147 An example of ahousehold with low energy use is given in Figure 10.17 on thefollowing page.Technologies to reduce energy demand of new dwellings are; 148• Triple-glazed windows with low-emittance coatings. Thesewindows reduce heat loss to 40% compared to windows withone layer. The low-emittance coating prevents energy waves insunlight coming in and thereby reduces cooling need.• Insulation of roofs, walls, floors and basement. Properinsulation reduces heating and cooling demand by 50% incomparison to average energy demand.• Passive solar energy. Good building design can make use ofsolar energy design, through orientation of the building’s siteand windows. The term “passive” indicates that no mechanicalequipment is used. Because solar gains are brought in throughwindows or shading keeps the heat out in summer.• Balanced ventilation with heat recovery. Heated indoor airpasses to a heat recovery unit and is used to heat incomingoutdoor air.For existing buildings, retrofits help reduce energy use. Importantretrofit options are more efficient windows and insulation, whichcan save 39% and 32% of space heating or cooling demand,respectively, according to IEA. 149 IEA 150 reports that averageenergy consumption in current buildings in Europe can decreaseoverall by more than 50%.figure 10.16: breakdown of fuel and heat use in ‘others’in 2009 (IEA ENERGY BALANCES 2011)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%10energy efficiency | BUILDINGS AND AGRICULTUREWORLDOECD AMERICAS• ELECTRICITY• FUELS/HEATOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTAFRICAWORLDOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIANON-SPECIFIED (OTHER)• FISHINGOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTAFRICA• AGRICULTURE/FORESTRYreference146 BERTOLDI & ATANASIU (2006), IEA (2006), IEA (2007) AND WBCSD (2005).147 THIS IS BASED ON A NUMBER OF ZERO-ENERGY DWELLING IN THE NETHERLANDS AND GERMANY,CONSUMING 400-500 M3 NATURAL GAS PER YEAR, WITH A FLOOR SURFACE BETWEEN 120 AND 150 M 2 .THIS RESULTS IN 0.1 GJ/M 2 /YR AND IS CONVERTED BY 3100 HEATING DEGREE DAYS TO 32 KJ/M 2 /HDD.148 (WBCSD (2005), IEA (2006), JOOSEN ET AL (2002).149 IEA, LIGHT´S LABOUR´S LOST, 2006, PARIS/FRANCE.150 IEA, LIGHT´S LABOUR´S LOST, 2006, PARIS/FRANCE.•COMMERCE AND PUBLIC SERVICES• RESIDENTIAL267

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKfigure 10.17: elements of new building design that can substantially reduce energy use (WBCSD, 2005)45628379110energy efficiency | BUILDINGS AND AGRICULTURETo improve the efficiency of existing heating systems, an option isto install new thermostatic valves which can save 15% of energyrequired for heating. On average, this option is installed in anestimated 40% of systems in Europe. 151Besides reducing the demand for heating, another option is toimprove the conversion of efficiency of heat supply. A number ofoptions are available such as high efficiency boilers that canachieve efficiencies of 107%, based on lower heating value.Another option is the use of heat pumps (see section 3.1.2).Space heating Energy savings options for hot water include pipeinsulation and high efficiency boilers. Another option is heatrecovery units that capture the waste heat from water going downthe drain and use it to preheat cold water before it enters thehousehold water heater. A heat recovery system can recover as muchas 70% of this heat and recycle it back for immediate use. 152Furthermore, water saving shower heads and flow inhibitors can beimplemented. The typical saving rate (in terms of energy) for showerheads is 12,5% and 25% for flow inhibitors. 153 In developingregions, improved coke stoves can be an important energy-efficiencyoption, which consume less energy than conventional ones. 15410.5.2 electricity useWhile residential buildings use a bigger share of fuel and heat, forelectricity, the consumption is more evenly spread over the sub-sector“commerce and public services” and residential. Globally, 49% ofelectricity is used in residential buildings and 41% in commerce andpublic services (also referred to as services). The use of electricity in2681. HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS THAT UTILISE THE STABLE TEMPERATURE IN THE GROUND TO SUPPORT AIR CONDITIONINGIN SUMMER AND HEATING OR HOT WATER SUPPLY IN WINTER.2. TREES TO PROVIDE SHADE AND COOLING IN SUMMER, AND SHIELD AGAINST COLD WIND IN WINTER.3. NEW BATTERY TECHNOLOGY FOR THE STORAGE OF THE ELECTRICITY PRODUCED BY SOLAR PANELS.4. TRANSPARENT DESIGN TO REDUCE THE NEED FOR LIGHTING. “LOW-E” GLASS COATING TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF HEAT ABSORBEDFROM SUNLIGHT THROUGH THE WINDOWS (WINDOWS WITH THE REVERSE EFFECT CAN BE INSTALLED IN COLDER CLIMATES).5. EFFICIENT LIGHT BULBS.6. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC PANELS FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND SOLAR THERMAL PANELS FOR WATER HEATING.7. ROOMS THAT ARE NOT NORMALLY HEATED (E.G. A GARAGE) SERVING AS ADDITIONAL INSULATION.8. VENTILATED DOUBLE SKIN FAÇADES TO REDUCE HEATING AND COOLING REQUIREMENTS.9. WOOD AS A BUILDING MATERIAL WITH ADVANTAGEOUS INSULATION PROPERTIES, WHICH ALSO STORES CARBONAND IS OFTEN PRODUCED WITH BIOMASS ENERGY.the services sector strongly depends on the region and ranges from17% in India to 56% in OECD Asia Oceania, see Figure 10.18.The breakdown of electricity use per type of appliance is differentper region. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario a convergence isassumed for the different types of electricity demand per regionin 2050. Based on data in the literature 155 , the overall breakdownof electricity use per type is:• Space heating 10%• Hot water 10%• Lighting 20%• ICT and home entertainment (HE) 12%• Other appliances 30%• Air conditioning 18%Electricity savings option per application are discussed in the following.Space heating and hot water Measures to reduce electricity use forspace heating and hot water are similar to measures for heating byfuels (see section 3.1.1). Changing the building shell can reduce theneed for heat, and the other approach is to improve the conversionefficiency of heat supply. This can be done for example with heatpumps to provide both cooling and space and water heating, and arediscussed extensively in Chapter 9 – Energy Technologies.references151 BETTGENHÄUSER ET AL. 2009.152 ENVIROHARVEST, 2008.153 BETTGENHÄUSER ET AL. 2009.154 REEEP, 2009.155 IEA (2009), IEA (2007) AND IPCC (2007A).

image COMPACT FLUORESCENT LAMP LIGHT BULB.image WASHING MACHINE.© PXLAR8/DREAMSTIME© AGENCYBY/DREAMSTIMEfigure 10.18: breakdown of electricity use by sub sectorin sector ‘others’ in 2009 (IEA ENERGY BALANCES 2011)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%WORLDOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIANON-SPECIFIED (OTHER)• FISHINGAGRICULTURE/FORESTRYOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTTechnologies Typically, heat pumps can produce from 2.5 to 4 timesas much useful heat as the amount of high-grade energy input, withvariations due to seasonal performance. The sales of heat pumps in anumber of major European markets experienced strong growth inrecent years. Total annual sales in Austria, Finland, France, Germany,Italy, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland reached 576,000 in 2008,almost 50% more than in 2005. 156 Data suggests that heat pumpsmay be beginning to achieve a critical mass for space and waterheating in a number of European countries.Lighting Incandescent bulbs have been the most common lamps fora more than 100 years but also the most inefficient type since up to95% of the electricity is lost as heat. 157 Incandescent lamps have arelatively short life-span (average value approximately 1,000 hours),but have a low initial cost and attractive light colour. CompactFluorescent Light Bulbs (CFLs) are more expensive thanincandescent, but they use about a quarter of the energy and lastabout 10 times longer. 158 In recent years many policies have beenimplemented that reduce or ban the use of incandescent light bulbsin various countries.It is important to realise however that lighting energy savings are notjust a question of using more efficient lamps, but also involve otherapproaches: reducing light absorption of luminaries (the fixture inwhich the lamp is housed), optimise lighting levels (which commonlyexceed values recommended by IEA), 159 use of automatic controls likemovement and daylight sensors, and retrofitting buildings to makebetter use of daylight. Buildings designed to optimize daylight canreceive up to 70% of their annual illumination needs from daylightwhile a typical building will only get 20 to 25%. 160The IEA publication Light’s Labour’s Lost (2006) projects atleast 38% of lighting electricity consumption could be cut incost-effective ways, disregarding newer and promisingtechnologies such as light emitted diodes (LEDs).AFRICA•COMMERCE AND PUBLIC SERVICES• RESIDENTIALICT and home entertainment equipment Information andcommunication technologies (ICT) and home entertainment consistof a growing number of appliances in both residential andcommercial buildings, such as computers, (smart) phones, televisions,set-top boxes, games consoles, printers, copiers and servers. ICT andconsumer electronics account for about 15% of residentialelectricity consumption now. 161 Globally a rise of 3 times is expectedfor ICT and consumer electronics, from 776 TWh in 2010 to 1,700TWh in 2030. One of the main options for reducing energy use inICT and home entertainment is using best available technology. IEA(2009b) estimates that a reduction is possible from 1,700 TWh to775 TWh in 2030 by applying best available technology and to1,220 TWh by least life-cycle costs measures, which do not imposeadditional costs on consumers. Below we discuss other energy savingsoptions for ICT and home entertainment.Other appliances Other appliances include cold appliances(freezers and refrigerators), washing machines, dryers, dish washers,ovens and other kitchen equipment. Electricity use for coldappliances depends on average per household storage capacities, theratio of frozen to fresh food storage capacity, ambient temperaturesand humidity, and food storage temperatures and control. 162European and Japanese households typically have one combinedrefrigerator-freezer in the kitchen or they have a refrigerator and aseparate freezer, due to having less space in the home. In OECDNorth America and Australia where houses are larger, almost allhouseholds have a refrigerator-freezer and many also have aseparate freezer and occasionally a separate refrigerator. 163 It isestimated that by improving the energy-efficiency of cold applianceson average 45% of electricity use could be saved for EU-27. 164 For“wet appliances” they estimate a potential of 40-60% savings byimplementing best practice technology (see Table 10.3).table 10.3: reference and best practice electricityuse by “wet appliances”Washing machine*Reference (kWh/dwelling/yr)Best practice (kWh/dwelling/yr)Improvement (%)Dryer*Reference (kWh/dwelling/yr)Best practice (kWh/dwelling/yr)Improvement (%)Dish washers*, **Reference (kWh/dwelling/yr)Best practice (kWh/dwelling/yr)Improvement (%)notes* WWW.MILIEUCENTRAAL.NL** ESTIMATE OF 163 DERIVED FROM VHK, 2005.references156 IEA, 2010.157 HENDEL-BLACKFORD ET AL., 2007.158 ENERGY STAR, 2008.159 IEA, LIGHT´S LABOUR´S LOST, 2006, PARIS/FRANCE.160 IEA, LIGHT´S LABOUR´S LOST, 2006, PARIS/FRANCE.161 IEA, 2009B162 IEA , COOL APPLIANCES, 2003, PARIS/FRANCE.163 IEA , COOL APPLIANCES, 2003, PARIS/FRANCE.164 BETTGENHAUSER ET AL. (2009).23111650440210-14060305209-1634026910energy efficiency | BUILDINGS AND AGRICULTURE

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK10energy efficiency | THE STANDARD HOUSEHOLD CONCEPTAir conditioning There are several options for technological savingsfrom air conditioning equipment; one is using a different refrigerant.Tests with the refrigerant Ikon B show possible energy consumptionreductions of 20-25% compared to regularly used refrigerants. 165Also geothermal cooling is an important option which isexplained in Chapter 9 - Renewable Heating and Cooling. Ofseveral technical concepts available, the highest energy savingscan be achieved with two storage reservoirs in aquifers where insummer time cold water is used from the cold reservoir. The hotreservoir can be used with a heat pump for heating in winter.Solar energy can also be used for heating and cooling, the differenttypes are also discussed in the previous chapter. Heat pumps andair conditioners that can be powered by solar photovoltaicsystems 166 for example uses only 0.05 kW of electricity is insteadof 0.35 kW for regular air conditioning. 167As well as using efficient air conditioning equipment, it is asimportant to reduce the need for air conditioning. The ways toreduce cooling demand are to use insulation to prevent heat fromentering the building, reduce the amount of inefficient appliancespresent in the house (such as incandescent lamps, old refrigerators,etc.) that give off heat, use cool exterior finishes (such as cool rooftechnology 168 or light-coloured paint on the walls) to reduce thepeak cooling demand as much as 10-15% 169 , improve windows anduse vegetation to reduce the amount of heat that comes into thehouse, and use ventilation instead of air conditioning units.figure 10.19: efficiency in households - electricity demand per capita IN TWH/ALATIN AMERICAAFRICACHINAINDIAFULLY EQUIPPED BEST PRACTICEHOUSEHOLD DEMAND - PER CAPITA:550 kWh/a10.6 the standard household conceptIn order to enable a specific level of energy demand as a basic“right” for all people in the world, we have developed the model ofan efficient Standard Household. A fully equipped OECD household(including fridge, oven, TV, radio, music centre, computer, lightsetc.) currently consumes between 1,500 and 3,400 kWh per yearper person. With an average of two to four people per householdthe total consumption is therefore between 3,000 and 12,000kWh/a. This demand could be reduced to about 550 kWh/year perperson just by using the most efficient appliances available on themarket today, without any significant lifestyle changes.Based on this assumption, the ‘over-consumption’ of allhouseholds in OECD countries totals more than 2,100 billionkilowatt-hours. Comparing this figure with the current per capitaconsumption in developing countries, they would have the ‘right’to use about 1,350 billion kilowatt-hours more. The current‘oversupply’ to OECD households could therefore fill the gap inenergy supply to developing countries one and a half times over.By implementing a strict technical standard for all electricalappliances, in order to achieve a level of 550 kWh/a per capitaconsumption, it would be possible to switch off more than 340coal power plants in OECD countries.IMPROVING EFFICIENCY IN HOUSEHOLDSMEANS EQUITY:UNDERSUPPLY OF HOUSEHOLDS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIESIN 2005 - COMPARED TO “BEST PRACTICE HOUSEHOLD”:1,373 TWh/aOTHER NON-OECD ASIAGLOBAL PER CAPITA AVERAGEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAMIDDLE EASTOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEOVER CONSUMPTION IN OECD COUNTRIES IN 2005 -COMPARED TO “BEST PRACTICE HOUSEHOLD”:2,169 TWh/aOECD NORTH AMERICA0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 TWh/areference165 US DOE EERE, 2008.166 DARLING, 2005.167 AUSTRIAN ENERGY AGENCY, 2006 - NOTE THAT SOLAR COOLING AND GEOTHERMAL COOLING MAYREDUCE THE NEED FOR HIGH GRADE ENERGY SUCH AS NATURAL GAS AND ELECTRICITY. ON THEOTHER HAND THEY INCREASE THE USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY. THE ENERGY SAVINGS ACHIEVED BYREDUCING THE NEED OF HIGH GRADE ENERGY WILL BE PARTLY COMPENSATED BY AN INCREASE OFRENEWABLE ENERGY.168 US EPA, 2007.169 ACEEE (2007).270

image WASHING MACHINE.image COMPUTER.© J. GOODYEAR/DREAMSTIME© D.SROGA/DREAMSTIMEfigure 10.20: electricity savings in households(energy [r]evolution versus reference) in 205014% LIGHTING22% OTHER13% STANDBY2% COMPUTERS/SERVERS8% AIR CONDITIONING20% COLD APPLIANCESSetting energy efficiency standards for electrical equipment couldhave a huge impact on the world’s power sector. A large numberof power plants could be switched off if strict technical standardswere brought into force. The table below provides an overview ofthe theoretical potential for using efficiency standards based oncurrently available technology.The Energy [R]evolution scenario has not been calculated on thebasis of this potential. However, this overview illustrates how manypower plants producing electricity would not be needed if all globalappliances were brought up to the highest efficiency standards.21% APPLIANCESnoteBY 2050, STRICT ENERGY EFFICIENCY STANDARDS, WOULD MEAN ALL GLOBAL HOUSEHOLDS COULD SAVEOVER 4,000 TWH COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO. THIS WOULD TAKE OVER 570 COAL POWERPLANTS OFF THE GRID.table 10.4: effect on number of global operating power plants of introducing strictenergy efficiency standards based on currently available technologyOECD EuropeOECD AmericasOECD Asia OceaniaChinaLatin AmericaAfricaMiddle EastEastern Europe/EurasiaIndiaOther Non-OECD AsiaWorldELECTRICITYLIGHTING16325353562480ELECTRICITYSERVICES- COMPUTERSELECTRICITY ELECTRICITYSTANDBYAIRCONDITIONING1119532223125011195332331252ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITYSERVICES SERVICES- LIGHTING- AIRCONDITIONINGELECTRICITYSET TOPBOXES23110001009ELECTRICITYSERVICES- COLDAPPLIANCESELECTRICITYOTHERAPPLIANCES2747137646736126ELECTRICITYSERVICES- OTHERAPPLIANCESELECTRICITYCOLDAPPLIANCES15267432342369ELECTRICITY -AGRICULTUREELECTRICITYCOMPUTERS/SERVERS241110110111NUMBER OFCOAL POWERPLANTSPHASED OUTELECTRICITYOTHER2342116646735113INDUSTRYTOTALINCLUDINGINDUSTRY10energy efficiency | THE STANDARD HOUSEHOLD CONCEPTOECD EuropeOECD AmericasOECD Asia OceaniaChinaLatin AmericaAfricaMiddle EastEastern Europe/EurasiaIndiaOther Non-OECD AsiaWorld8155121120237306211383692714018341034134138161131101101273360185725716144721121361081469820939796615230516231501,038106107521443923863233361331550314820590535912554831,651271

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK10.7 low energy demand scenario:buildings and agricultureThe level of energy savings and the percentage reduction belowthe baseline vary significantly between regions. The largestpercentage reductions occur in China (38%), the economies intransition (38%) and OECD Europe (37%).China’s reduction in 2050 comes from both improved efficiency andswitching away from the inefficient use of traditional biomass inbuildings to modern bioenergy (biofuels, biogas and bio-dimethylether) and commercial fuels. The smallest percentage reduction belowthe baseline occurs in India and is due to a rebound effect in whichsome increased consumption is triggered by some of the energyefficiency measures in the period to 2050. The largest absolutereductions occur in China, OECD Europe and OECD North America.Figure 10.21 shows which types of energy use have the highest sharein the savings in the baseline (IEA BLUE Map scenario).10.8 results for buildings and agriculture:the efficiency pathway for the energy [r]evolutionThe Energy [R]evolution scenario for the agriculture andbuildings sector (“other”) is based on a combination of the IEA450 ppm scenario, the Blue map scenario and other assumptions.We assume that policies to improve energy-efficiency in thissector are implemented in 2013 and will lead to energy savingsfrom 2014 onwards. Table 10.5 shows the annual reductions ofenergy demand compared to the Reference scenario. Forelectricity use in OECD countries we use savings potentials ascalculated in the SERPEC-CC study for EU-27 (Bettgenhäuseret al. 2009). In this study, potentials have been calculated forenergy savings from all types of energy-efficiency improvementoptions. This bottom-up study estimated a savings potential of2.5% per year for electricity use in buildings in comparison tofrozen technology levels, for a 25 year period.figure 10.21: breakdown of energy savings in BLUE Map scenario for sector ‘others’ (IEA, 2010)10energy efficiency | LOW ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIO & RESULTS FOR BUILDINGS AND AGRICULTURESERVICES LIGHTING AND OTHERSERVICES COOLING AND VENTILATIONSERVICES WATER HEATINGSERVICES SPACE HEATINGRESIDENTIAL APPLIANCES AND OTHER0.4%0.8%1.6%1.6%0.6%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.9%1.0%0.9%14%7%5%10%10%1.5%1.5%1.5%0.9%0.6%1.1%1.0%1.0%1.0%0.5%1.3%0.1%0.3%0.6%1.1%0.6%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.9%0.2%0.3%25% RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING11% RESIDENTIAL WATER HEATING5% RESIDENTIAL COOLING AND VENTILATION3% RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING10% RESIDENTIAL COOKINGtable 10.5: annual reduction of energy demand in ‘others’ sector in energy [r]evolution scenarioin comparison to the corresponding reference scenarioOECD AmericasOECD Asia OceaniaOECD EuropeEastern Europe/EurasiaIndiaChinaNon OECD AsiaLatin AmericaMiddle EastAfricaWorldENERGY [R]EVOLUTION450 PPM SCENARIO %/YR 171 BLUE MAP– ENERGY SAVINGS IN %/YR PERIOD 2013-2050 170 - ENERGY SAVINGS IN %/YR 172Fuel/heat ElectricityFuel/heat ElectricityFuel/heat Electricity0.7%1.0%0.8%1.4%1.4%2.2%1.0%1.0%1.2%0.8%1.3%0.9%0.7%1.6%1.6%0.5%1.4%0.4%0.8%1.6%1.4%1.3%1.1%0.8%1.1%0.9%1.0%1.4%0.9%0.6%1.0%0.5%1.0%references170 IN COMPARISON TO REFERENCE SCENARIO (EXTRAPOLATED WEO CURRENT POLICIES SCENARIO)171 IN COMPARISON TO WEO CURRENT POLICIES SCENARIO.172 IN COMPARISON TO BLUE MAP REFERENCE SCENARIO.272

image OFFICE BUILDINGS AT NIGHT IN LEEDS. MOST OF AN OFFICE BUILDINGS ENERGYCONSUMPTION OVER ITS LIFETIME IS IN LIGHTING, LIFTS, HEATING, COOLING AND COMPUTER USAGE.LIGHTING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONE-FOURTH OF ALL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION WORLDWIDE.BUILDINGS CAN BE MADE MORE SUSTAINABLE BY ARCHITECTURE THAT RESPONDS TO THECONDITIONS OF A SITE WITH INTEGRATED STRUCTURE AND BUILDING SERVICES. EFFECTIVE USE OFPASSIVE SOLAR HEAT AND THE THERMAL MASS OF THE BUILDING, HIGH INSULATION LEVELS,NATURAL DAYLIGHTING AND WIND POWER CAN ALL HELP TO MINIMIZE FOSSIL ENERGY USE.© STEVE MORGAN/GPWe assume that this annual efficiency improvement rate can beachieved in OECD countries for the period 2013-2050. Asmentioned in chapter 4, we assume that autonomous energyefficiencyimprovement in the Reference scenario equals 1% peryear. This means that electricity savings of 1.5% per year in OECDcountries can be made on top of the references scenario. Thispotential for electricity use in OECD countries is within thetechnical potentials for electricity savings as calculated by Grauset al. 173 , which gives a technical potential of 3% saving per yearfor electricity use in buildings against frozen technology level.Table 10.6 shows the final energy consumption in absolute valuesfor the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the BLUE Map scenarioand 450 ppm scenarios as comparison. Table 10.6 shows theunderlying Reference scenarios for all three scenarios.It should be noted that the BLUE Map scenario for buildingscovers a lower share of the energy demand than the sectorbuildings and agriculture sector in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario and in the IEA WEO scenario; about 90% of energydemand. Still it becomes clear that the Energy [R]evolutionscenario for this sector is slightly below the 450 ppm scenarioand reasonably in line with the IEA BLUE Map scenario, interms of the level of energy demand.table 10.6: global final energy consumption for sector ‘others’ (EJ) in 2030 and 2050In order to achieve the Energy [R]evolution low energydemand scenario the following measure needs to be achieved:• Tighter building standards and codes for new residential andcommercial buildings. Regulatory standards for new residentialbuildings in cold climates are tightened to between 15 and 30kWh/m 2 /year for heating purposes, with little or no increase incooling load. In hot climates, cooling loads are reduced by aroundone-third. For commercial buildings, standards are introduced whichhalve the consumption for heating and cooling compared to 2007.This will mean less heating and cooling equipment is required.• Large-scale refurbishment of residential buildings in theOECD. Around 60% of residential dwellings in the OECDwhich will still be standing in 2050 will need to be refurbishedto a low-energy standard (approximately 50 kWh/m 2 / year),which also means they require less heating equipment. Thisrepresents the refurbishment of around 210 million residentialdwellings in the OECD between 2010 and 2050.• Highly efficient heating, cooling and ventilation systems.These systems need to be both efficient and cost-effective. Thecoefficient of performance (COP) of installed cooling systemsdoubles from today’s level.• Improved lighting efficiency. Notwithstanding recentimprovements, many driven by policy changes, there remainsconsiderable potential to reduce lighting demand worldwidethrough the use of the most efficient options.• Improved appliance efficiency. Appliance standards areassumed to shift rapidly to least life-cycle cost levels, and tothe current BAT levels by 2030.• The deployment of heat pumps for space and waterheating. This occurs predominantly in OECD countries, anddepends on the relative economics of different abatementoptions. And the deployment of micro- and mini-cogenerationfor space and water heating, and electricity generation.Results: Energy efficiency pathway of the Energy[R]evolution scenario in the building and agricultural sector10energy efficiency | RESULTS FOR BUILDINGS AND AGRICULTURE20302050Heat/fuelsElectricityTotalHeat/fuelsElectricityTotalEnergy [R]evolutionIEA Blue mapIEA WEO - 450 ppm scenario91.476.697.748.442.049.8139.8118.6147.584.473.2-54.652.4-138.9125.4-table 10.7: global final energy consumption for sector ‘others’ (EJ) in 2030 and 2050 in underlying baseline scenarios20302050Heat/fuelsElectricityTotalHeat/fuelsElectricityTotalReference scenario - Energy [R]evolutionReference scenario - BLUE MapIEA WEO – current policies scenario106.596.1108.059.553.259.0166.0149.3167.0116.6107.6-82.976.9-199.5184.5-references173 ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION 2012,WINA GRAUS, KATERINA KERMELI,UTRECHT UNIVERSITY, MARCH 2012.273

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKFigure 10.22 shows the energy demand scenarios for the buildingsand agriculture sector on a global level. Energy demand forelectricity is reduced by 36% and for fuel by 28%, in comparisonto the reference level in 2050. In comparison to 2009, global fueluse in this sector decreases slightly from 92 EJto 84 EJ whileelectricity use shows a strong increase from 35 EJ to 55 EJ.Figure 10.23, 10.24 and 10.25 show the final energy demand inthe buildings and agriculture sector per region for total energydemand, fuel use and electricity use, respectively.figure 10.22: global final energy use in the period2009-2050 in sector ‘others’140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,000figure 10.24: fuel/heat use in sector ‘others’25,00020,00015,00010,0005,00010energy efficiency | RESULTS FOR BUILDINGS AND AGRICULTURE20,000PJ/a 02009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050OTHER - FUELS - REFERENCEOTHER - FUELS - ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION•OTHER - ELECTRICITY - REFERENCEOTHER - ELECTRICITY - ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONfigure 10.23: final energy use in sector ‘others’35,00030,00025,00020,00015,000PJ/a 0figure 10.25: electricity use in sector ‘others’20,00015,00010,000OECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA2009•2050 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTAFRICA10,0005,0005,000PJ/a 0PJ/a 0OECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTAFRICAOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAOECD EUROPEEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAINDIACHINAOTHER NON-OECD ASIALATIN AMERICASMIDDLE EASTAFRICA2009•2050 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2009•2050 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION274

transport11THE FUTURE OF THE TRANSPORTSECTOR IN THE E[R] SCENARIOTECHNICAL ANDBEHAVIOURAL MEASURESPROJECTION OF THE FUTURELDV VECHICAL MARKETCONCLUSION11“a mixof lifestylechangesand newtechnologies.”© JACQUES DESCLOITRES/NASA/GSFCimage THE PENINSULAR, NORTHEASTERN ARM OF ARGENTINA IS HOME TO SOME OF THE LAST REMAINING REMNANTS OF A SOUTH AMERICAN ECOSYSTEM KNOWN ASATLANTIC RAINFOREST, WHICH USED TO RUN ALL ALONG BRAZIL’S COAST FROM THE STATE OF RIO GRANDE DO NORTE THOUSANDS OF MILES SOUTH TO RIO GRANDE DO SUL.275

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK11transport | THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORTSustainable transport is needed to reduce the level of greenhousegases in the atmosphere, just as much as a shift to renewableelectricity and heat production. Today, nearly a third (27%) ofcurrent energy use comes from the transport sector, includingroad and rail, aviation and sea transport. In order to assess thepresent status of global transport, including its carbon footprint,a special study was undertaken for the 2012 Energy [R]evolutionreport by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) Institute ofVehicle Concepts.The demand projections for the Reference and this Energy[R]evolution scenario have been based on this analysis, althoughthe reference year has been updated on the basis of IEA WEO2011 (to 2009 figures).This chapter provides an overview of the selected measuresrequired to develop a more energy efficient and sustainabletransport system in the future, with a focus on:• reducing transport demand,• shifting transport ‘modes’ (from high to low energy intensity),and• energy efficiency improvements from technology development.The section provides assumptions for the transport sector energydemand calculations used in the Reference and the Energy[R]evolution scenarios including projections for the passengervehicle market (Light Duty Vehicles).Overall, some technologies will have to be adapted for greaterenergy efficiency. In other situations, a simple modification willnot be enough. The transport of people in megacities and urbanareas will have to be almost entirely reorganised and individualtransport must be complemented or even substituted by publictransport systems. Car sharing and public transport on demandare only the beginning of the transition needed for a system thatcarries more people more quickly and conveniently to theirdestination while using less energy.For the 2012 Energy [R]evolution scenario, the German DLRInstitute of Vehicle Concepts undertook analyses of the entireglobal transport sector, broken down to the ten IEA regions. Thisreport outlines the key findings of the analysis’ calculations.11.1 the future of the transport sectorin the energy [r]evolution scenarioAs for electricity projections, a detailed Reference scenario isrequired for transport. The scenario constructed includes detailedshares and energy intensity data per mode of transport and perregion up to 2050 (sources: WBSCD, EU studies). Based on theReference scenario, deviating transport performance andtechnical parameters are applied to create the ambitious Energy[R]evolution scenario for reducing energy consumption. Trafficperformance is assumed to decline for the high energy intensitymodes and further energy reduction potentials were assumedfrom further efficiency gains, alternative power trains and fuels.International shipping has been left out whilst calculating thebaseline figures, because it spreads across all regions of theworld. The total is therefore made up of Light Duty Vehicles(LDVs), Heavy and Medium Duty Freight Trucks, rail, air, andnational marine transport (Inland Navigation). Although energyuse from international marine bunkers (international shipping fuelsuppliers) is not included in these calculations, it is still estimatedto account for 9% of today’s worldwide transport final energydemand and 7% by 2050. A recent UN report concluded thatcarbon dioxide emissions from shipping are much greater thaninitially thought and increasing at an alarming rate. It istherefore very important to improve the energy efficiency ofinternational shipping. Possible options are examined later in thischapter.The definitions of the transport modes for the scenarios 174 are:• Light duty vehicles (LDV) are four-wheel vehicles usedprimarily for personal passenger road travel. These are typicallycars, Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs), small passenger vans (upto eight seats) and personal pickup trucks. Light Duty Vehiclesare also simply called ‘cars’ within this chapter.• Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV) are as long haul trucks operatingalmost exclusively on diesel fuel. These trucks carry large loadswith lower energy intensity (energy use per tonne-kilometre ofhaulage) than Medium Duty Vehicles such as delivery trucks.• Medium Duty Vehicles (MDV) include medium haul trucks anddelivery vehicles.• Aviation in each region denotes domestic air travel (intraregionaland international air travel is provided as one figure).• Inland Navigation denotes freight shipping with vesselsoperating on rivers and canals or in coastal areas for domestictransport purposes.276reference174 FULTON & EADS (2004).

image TRAIN SIGNALS.© MARINOMARINI/DREAMSTIMEThe figure below shows the breakdown of final energy demand forthe transport modes in 2009 and 2050 in the Reference scenario.As can be seen from the above figures, the largest share of energydemand comes from passenger road transport (mainly transportby car), although it decreases from 56% in 2009 to 46% in2050. The share of domestic air transport increases from 6% to8%. Of particular note is the high share of road transport intotal transport energy demand: 89% in 2009 and 86% in 2050.In the Reference scenario, overall energy demand in the transportsector adds up to 82 EJ in 2009. It is projected to increase to151 EJ in 2050.In the ambitious Energy [R]evolution scenario, implying theimplementation of all efficiency and behavioural measures described,we calculated in fact a decrease of energy demand to 61 EJ, whichmeans a lower annual energy consumption than in 2009.Figure 11.1 shows world final energy use for the transport sectorin 2009 and 2050 in the Reference scenario.Today, energy consumption is comprised by nearly half of the totalamount by OECD America and OECD Europe. In 2050, thepicture looks more fragmented. In particular China and Indiaform a much bigger portion of the world transport energy demandwhereas OECD America remains the largest energy consumer.figure 11.1: world final energy use per transport mode 2009/2050 – reference scenario6%1%2%12%21%20092%56%ROAD PASS TRANSPORTHDVMDVFREIGHT RAILPASSENGER RAIL•DOMESTIC AVIATIONINLAND NAVIGATION8%1%2%16%20502%46%11figure 11.2: world transport final energy use by region 2009/2050 – reference scenario4%3%6%8%7%6%7%200917%35%7%OECD EUROPEOECD NORTH AMERICAOECD ASIA OCEANIALATIN AMERICANON OECD ASIAEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIACHINAMIDDLE EAST• INDIAAFRICA24%5%12%8%19%7%205010%20%3%7%8%transport | THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORT277

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK11.2 technical and behavioural measures toreduce transport energy consumptionThe following section describes how the transport modescontribute to total and relative energy demand. Then, a selectionof measures for reducing total and specific energy transportconsumption are put forward for each mode. Measures aregrouped as either behavioural or technical.The three ways to decrease energy demand in the transportsector examined are:• reduction of transport demand of high energy intensity modes• modal shift from high energy intensive transport to low energyintensity modes• energy efficiency improvements.Table 11.1 summarises these options and the indicatorsused to quantify them.Policy measures for reducing passenger transport demand in generalcould include:• charge and tax policies that increase transport costs forindividual transport• price incentives for using public transport modes• installation or upgrading of public transport systems• incentives for working from home• stimulating the use of video conferencing in business• improved cycle paths in cities.Table 11.2 shows the p-km for light duty vehicle transport in 2009against the assumed p-km in the Reference scenario and in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario in 2050, broken down for all regions.11transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORT11.2.1 step 1: reduction of transport demandTo use less transport overall means reducing the amount of‘passenger-km (p-km)’ travelled per capita and reducing freighttransport demand. The amount of freight transport is to a largeextent linked to GDP development and therefore difficult toinfluence. However, by improved logistics, for example optimal loadprofiles for trucks or a shift to regionally-produced and shippedgoods, demand can be limited.Passenger transport The study focussed on the change inpassenger-km per capita of high-energy intensity air transport andpersonal vehicles modes. Passenger transport by Light duty vehicles(LDV), for example, is energy demanding both in absolute andrelative terms. Policy measures that enforce a reduction of passengerkmtravelled by individual transport modes are an effective means toreduce transport energy demand.table 11.1: selection of measures and indicatorsMEASUREReduction oftransport demandModal shiftEnergy efficiencyimprovementstable 11.2: LDV passenger-km per capitaREGIONOECD EuropeOECD North AmericaOECD Asia OceaniaLatin AmericaNon OECD AsiaEastern Europe/EurasiaChinaMiddle EastIndiaAfrica20099,0619,4019,9243,0451,2894,3851,0514,749335726REDUCTION OPTIONReduction in volume of passenger transport in comparison to the Reference scenarioReduction in volume of freight transport in comparison to the Reference scenarioModal shift from trucks to railModal shift from cars to public transportShift to energy efficient passenger car drive trains (battery electric vehicles, hybrid and fuel cellhydrogen cars) and trucks (fuel cell hydrogen, battery electric, catenary or inductive supplied)Shift to powertrain modes that may be fuelled by renewable energy (electric, fuel cell hydrogen)Autonomous efficiency improvements of LDV, HDV, trains, airplanes over time2050 REF10,51811,94011,8616,2353,70813,0745,46214,3836,1961,3462050 E[R]7,3908,21110,8935,4682,67310,3613,3648,3585,011834INDICATORPassenger-km/capitaTon-km/unit of GDPMJ/tonne-kmMJ/Passenger-kmMJ/Passenger-km,|MJ/Ton-kmMJ/Passenger-km,MJ/Ton-kmMJ/Passenger-km,MJ/Ton-km278

image ITALIAN EUROSTAR TRAIN.image TRUCK.© ITALIANESTRO/DREAMSTIME© L. GILLES /DREAMSTIMEIn the Reference scenario, there is a forecast increase inpassenger-km in all regions up to 2050. For the 2050 Energy[R]evolution scenario there is still a rise, but this would be muchflatter and for OECD Europe and OECD America there will evenbe a decline in individual transport on a per capita basis.The reduction in passenger-km per capita in the Energy[R]evolution scenario compared to the Reference scenario comeswith a general reduction in car use due to behavioural and trafficpolicy changes and partly with a shift of transport to public modes.A shift from energy-intensive individual transport to low-energydemand public transport goes align with an increase in lowenergypublic transport p-km.Freight transport It is difficult to estimate a reduction in freighttransport and the Energy [R]evolution scenario does not include amodel for reduced frieght transport.11.2.2 step 2: changes in transport modeIn order to figure out which vehicles or transport modes are themost efficient for each purpose requires an analysis of thetransport modes’ technologies. Then, the energy use and intensityfor each type of transport is used to calculate energy savingsresulting from a transport mode shift. The following informationis required:• Passenger transport: Energy demand per passenger kilometre,measured in MJ/p-km.• Freight transport: Energy demand per kilometre of transportedtonne of goods, measured in MJ/tonne-km.figure 11.3: world average (stock-weighted) passengertransport energy intensity for 2009 and 20502.01.51.00.5MJ/p-km 0•2009 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONLDV Passenger Railway Domestic AviationFor this study passenger transport includes Light Duty Vehicles,passenger rail and air transport. Freight transport includes MediumDuty Vehicles, Heavy DutyVehicles, Inland Navigation, marinetransport and freight rail. WBCSD 2004 data was used as baselinedata and updated where more recent information was available.Passenger transport Travelling by rail is the most efficient –but car transport improves strongly. Figure 11.3 shows theworldwide average specific energy consumption (energy intensity)by transport mode in 2009 and in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario in 2050. This data differs for each region. There is alarge difference in specific energy consumption among thetransport modes. Passenger transport by rail will consume on aper p-km basis 28% less energy in 2050 than car transport and85% less than aviation which shows that shifting from road torail can make large energy savings.From Figure 11.3 we can conclude that in order to reduce transportenergy demand, passengers will need to shift from cars and especiallyair transport to the lower energy-intensive passenger rail transport.In the Energy [R]evolution scenario it is assumed that a certainportion of passenger-kilometer of domestic air traffic andintraregional air traffic (i. e., traffic among two countries of oneIEA region) is suitable to be substituted by high speed rail(HSR). For international aviation there is obviously nosubstitution potential to other modes whatsoever.Table 11.3 displays the relative model shifts used in the calculationof the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Where the shares are higher itmeans that the cites are closer, so a substition by high speed trainsis a more realistic option (i. e. distances of up to 800 – 1,000 km,compared to countries where they are far apart).table 11.3: air traffic substitution potential of highspeed rail (HSR)REGIONOECD EuropeOECD North AmericaOECD Asia OceaniaLatin AmericaNon OECD AsiaEastern Europe/EurasiaChinaMiddle EastIndiaAfricaRELATIVE SUBSTITUTION OF AIRTRAFFIC TO HSR IN 2050 (ALT)DOMESTIC INTRAREGIONAL30 %15 %20 %10 %20 %10 %30 %10 %20 %10 %10 %10 %20 %10 %30 %10 %20 %10 %20 %10 %11transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORT279

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKFigure 11.4 and 11.5 show how passenger-km of both domesticaviation and rail passenger traffic would change due to modalshift in the Energy [R]evolution scenario against the Referencescenario (the Rail passenger-km includes, besides the modal shift,a general increase in rail passenger-km as people use rail overindividual transport as well).Figure 11.6 and Figure 11.7 show the resulting passenger-km ofall modes in the Reference and Energy [R]evolution scenario;including the decreasing LDV passenger-km compared to theReference scenario.figure 11.4: aviation passenger-km in the referenceand energy [r]evolution scenariosfigure 11.6: passenger-km over timein the reference scenario11transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORTp-km9.0E+128.0E+127.0E+126.0E+125.0E+124.0E+123.0E+122.0E+121.0E+120.0E+002009•REFERENCE SCENARIOENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050figure 11.5: rail passenger-km in the referenceand energy [r]evolution scenariosp-km1.4E+131.2E+131.0E+138.0E+126.0E+124.0E+122.0E+120.0E+002009•REFERENCE SCENARIOENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050p-km per year6.0E+135.0E+134.0E+133.0E+132.0E+131.0E+130.0E+002009ROAD• RAILDOMESTIC AVIATION2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050figure 11.7: passenger-km over timein the energy [r]evolution scenariop-km per year6.0E+135.0E+134.0E+133.0E+132.0E+131.0E+130.0E+00ROAD• RAILDOMESTIC AVIATION2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050280

image TRANSPORT POLLUTION.© PN_PHOTO/DREAMSTIMEFreight transport Similar to Figure 11.3 which showed averagespecific energy consumption for passenger transport modes,Figure 11.8 shows the respective energy consumption for variousfreight transport modes in 2009 and in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario 2050, the values are weighted according to stock-andtrafficperformance.Energy intensity for all modes of transport is expected to decreaseby 2050. In absolute terms, road transport has the largestefficiency gains whereas transport on rail and on water remain themodes with the lowest relative energy demand per tonne-km. Railfreight transport will consume 89% less energy per tonne-km in2050 than long haul HDV. This means that large energy savingscan be made following a shift from road to rail.figure 11.8: world average (stock-weighted) freighttransport energy intensities for 2005 and 20505Modal shifts for transporting goods in the Energy[R]evolution scenario The figures above indicate that as muchroad freight as possible should be shifted from road freighttransport to less energy intensive freight rail, to gain maximumenergy savings from modal shifts.Since the use of ships largely depends on the geography of thecountry, a modal shift is not proposed for national ships but insteada shift towards freight rail. As the goods transported by mediumduty vehicles are mainly going to regional destinations (and aretherefore not suitable for the long distance nature of freight railtransport), no modal shift to rail is assumed for this transport type.For long-haul heavy duty vehicles transport, however, especially lowvalue density, heavy goods that are transported on a long range aresuitable for a modal shift to railways. 175 We assumed the followingrelative modal shifts in the Energy [R]evolution scenario:table 11.4: modal shift of HDV tonne-km to freight railin 205043REGIONMODAL SHIFT TO FREIGHT RAIL IN2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONfigure 11.9: tonne-km over time in the referencescenariotonne-km per year21MJ/t-km 0•2009 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION3.5E+133.0E+132.5E+132.0E+121.5E+121.0E+120.5E+12Railway Inland navigation HDV MDV0.0E+002009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050HEAVY DUTY VEHICLESMEDIUM DUTY VEHICLES•RAIL FREIGHTINLAND NAVIGATIONOECD EuropeOECD North AmericaAll other regionsFigure 11.9 and Figure 11.10 show the resulting tonne-km of themodes in the Reference scenario and Energy [R]evolutionscenario. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario freight transportedby rail is larger in absolute numbers than freight transported byheavy duty vehicles.figure 11.10: tonne-km over time in the energy[r]evolution scenariotonne-km per year3.5E+133.0E+132.5E+132.0E+121.5E+121.0E+120.5E+1225 %23 %30 %0.0E+002009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050HEAVY DUTY VEHICLESMEDIUM DUTY VEHICLES•RAIL FREIGHTINLAND NAVIGATIONreference175 TAVASSZY AND VAN MEIJEREN 2011.28111transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORT

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK11transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORT11.2.3 step 3: efficiency improvementsEnergy efficiency improvements are the third important way ofreducing transport energy demand. This section explains ways forimproving energy efficiency up to 2050 for each type oftransport, namely:• air transport• passenger and freight trains• trucks• inland navigation and marine transport• cars.In general, an integral part of an energy reduction scheme is anincrease in the load factor – this applies both for freight andpassenger transport. As the load factor increases, less vehicles needto be employed and thus the energy intensity decreases whenmeasured per passenger-km or tonne-km.In aviation there are already sophisticated efforts to optimise theload factor, however for other modes such as road and rail freighttransport there is still room for improvement. Lifting the loadfactor may be achieved through improved logistics and supplychain planning for freight transport and in enhanced capacityutilisation in passenger transport.Air transport A study conducted by NASA (2011) shows thatenergy use of new subsonic aicrafts can be reduced by up to58% up to 2035. Potentially, up to 81% reduction in CO2emissions are achievable when using biofuels. 176 Akerman (2005)reports that a 65% reduction in fuel use is technically feasible by2050. Technologies to reduce fuel consumption of aircraftsmainly comprise:• Aerodynamic adaptations to reduce the drag of the aircraft, forexample by improved control of laminar flow, the use of ribletsand multi-functional structures, the reduction in fasteners, flapfairings and the tail size as well as by advanced supercriticalairfoil technologies.• Structural technologies to reduce the weight of the aircraft whileat the same time increasing the stiffness. Examples include theuse of new lightweight materials like advanced metals,composites and ceramics, the use of improved coatings as well asthe optimised design of multi-functional, integrated structures.• Subsystem technologies including, for example, advanced powermanagement and generation as well as optimised flight avionicsand wiring.• Propulsion technologies like advanced gas turbines for poweringthe aircraft more efficiently; this could also include:282• improved combustion emission measures, improvements incold and hot section materials, and the use of turbineblade/vane technology;• investigation of all-electric, fuel-cell gas turbine and electricgas turbine hybrid propulsion devices;• the usage of electric propulsion technologies compriseadvanced lightweight motors, motor controllers and powerconditioning equipment. 177The scenario projects a 50% improvement in specific energyconsumption on a per passenger-km basis for future aircrafts in2050 based on 2009 energy intensities. Figure 11.11 shows theenergy intensities in the Energy [R]evolution scenario forinternational, intraregional and domestic aviation.figure 11.11: energy intensities (MJ/p-km)for air transport in the energy [r]evolution scenario654321MJ/p-km 0•2009 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONAll regions have the same energy intensities due to a lack ofregionally-differentiated data. Numbers shown are the global average.Passenger and freight trains Transport of passengers and freightby rail is currently one of the most energy efficient means oftransport. However, there is still potential to reduce the specificenergy consumption of trains. Apart from operational and policymeasures to reduce energy consumption like raising the load factorof trains, technological measures to reduce energy consumption offuture trains are necessary, too. Key technologies are:• reducing the total weight of a train is seen as the mostsignificant measure to reduce traction energy consumption. Byusing lightweight structures and lightweight materials, theenergy needed to overcome inertial and grade resistances aswell as friction from tractive resistances can be reduced.• aerodynamic improvements to reduce aerodynamic drag,especially important when running on high velocity. A reductionof aerodynamic drag is typically achieved by streamlining theprofile of the train.• switch from diesel-fuelled to more energy efficient electricallydriven trains.references176 BRADLEY & DRONEY, 2011.177 IBIDEM.International Intra Domestic

image DEUTSCHE BAHN AG IN GERMANY, USING RENEWABLE ENERGY. WIND PARKMAERKISCH LINDEN (BRANDENBURG) RUN BY THE DEUTSCHE BAHN AG.image CYCLING THROUGH FRANKFURT.© PAUL LANGROCK/GP© STEVE MORGAN/GP• improvements in the traction system to further reduce frictionallosses. Technical options include improvements of the majorcomponents as well as improvements in the energymanagement software of the system.• regenerative braking to recover waste energy. The energy caneither be transferred back into the grid or stored on-board inan energy storage device. Regenerative braking is especiallyeffective in regional traffic with frequent stops.• improved space utilisation to achieve a more efficient energyconsumption per passenger kilometre. The simplest way toachieve this is to transport more passengers per train. This caneither be achieved by a higher average load factor, more flexibleand shorter trainsets or by the use of double-decker trains onhighly frequented routes.• improved accessory functions, e.g. for passenger comfort. Thehighest amount of energy in a train is used is to ensure thecomfort of the train’s passengers by heating and cooling. Somestrategies for efficiency include djustments to the cabin design,changes to air intakes and using waste heat from traction.By research on technologies for advanced high-speed trains,DLR’s ‘Next Generation Train’ project aims to reduce the specificenergy consumption per passenger kilometre by 50% relative toexisting high speed trains in the future.The Energy [R]evolution scenario uses energy intensity data ofTOSCA, 2011 for electric and diesel fuelled train in Europe asinput for our calculations. These data were available for 2009and as forecasts for 2025 and 2050.The region-specific efficiency factors and shares of diesel/electrictraction traffic performance were used to calculate energyintensity data per region (MJ/p-km) for 2009 and up to 2050.The same methodology was applied for rail freight transport.Figure 11.12 shows the weighted average share of electric anddiesel traction today and as of 2030 and 2050 in the Energy[R]evolution scenario.Electric trains as of today are about 2 to 3.5 times less energyintensive than diesel trains depending on the specific type of railtransport, so the projections to 2050 include a massive shiftaway from diesel to electric traction in the Energy [R]evolution2050 scenario.The region-specific efficiency factors for passenger rail take intoaccount higher load factors for example in China and India.Energy intensity for freight rail is based on the assumptions thatregions with longer average distances for freight rail (such as theUS and Former Soviet Union), and where more raw materials aretransported (such as coal), show a lower energy intensity thanother regions (Fulton & Eads, 2004). Future projections use tenyear historic IEA data.11figure 11.12: fuel share of electric and diesel railtraction for passenger transport100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%figure 11.13: fuel share of electric and diesel railtraction for freight transport2009 2030 E[R] 2050 E[R]2009 2030 E[R] 2050 E[R]• ELECTRIC• ELECTRICDIESEL DIESEL100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORT283

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK11transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORTFigure 11.14 shows the energy intensity per region in the Energy[R]evolution scenario for passenger rail and Figure 11.15 showsthe energy intensity per region in the Energy [R]evolutionscenario for freight rail.Heavy and medium duty vehicles (freight by road) Freighttransport on the road forms the backbone of logistics in manyregions of the world. But it is, apart from air freight transport, themost energy intensive way of moving goods around. However, gradualprogress is being made in the fields of drivetrain efficiency,lightweight construction, alternative power trains and fuels and so on.This study projected a major shift in drivetrain market share ofmedium and heavy duty vehicles in our Energy [R]evolutionscenario in the future. As of today, the great majority of MDVand HDV is powered by internal combustion engines, fuelledmainly by diesel and in MDV as well by a small share of gasolineand gas (CNG and LPG). The Energy [R]evolution modelincludes a considerable shift to electric and fuel cell hydrogenpowered vehicles (FCV) until 2050.The electric MDV stock in the model will be mainly composed ofbattery electric vehicles (BEV), and a relevant share of hybridelectric vehicles (HEV). Hybrid electric vehicles will have alsodisplaced conventional internal combustion engines in heavy dutyvehicles. In addition to this, both electric vehicles supplied withcurrent via overhead catenary lines and BEV are modeled in theEnergy [R]evolution scenario for HDV applications. Siemens hasproved the technical feasibility of the catenary technology fortrucks with experimental vehicles in its eHighway project (Figure11.16). The trucks are equipped with a hybrid diesel powertrainto be able to operate when not connected to the overhead line.figure 11.14: energy intensities for passenger railtransport in the energy [r]evolution scenarioMJ/p-km0.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10When under a catenary line, the trucks can operate fully electricat speeds of up to 90 km/h.Apart from electrically operated trucks fed by an overheadcatenary, also inductive power supply via induction loops under thepavement could become an option. In addition to the electric truckfleet in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, HDV and MDV poweredby fuel cells (FCV) were integrated into the vehicle stock, too.FCV are beneficial especially for long haul transports where nooverhead catenary lines are available and the driving range ofBEV would not be sufficient.figure 11.16: HDV operating fully electrically undera catenary 178figure 11.15: energy intensities for freight railtransport in the energy [r]evolution scenarioMJ/tonne-km0.60.50.40.30.20.10OECD EUROPEOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAAFRICA• 20092050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONCHINAINDIALATIN AMERICAOTHER NON-OECD EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAMIDDLE EASTOECD EUROPEOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAAFRICA• 20092050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONCHINAINDIALATIN AMERICAOTHER NON-OECD EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAMIDDLE EASTreferences178 SOURCE: HTTP://WWW.GREENTECHMEDIA.COM/ARTICLES/READ/SIEMENS-PLANS-TO-CLEAN-UP-TRUCKING-WITH-A-TROLLEY-LINE/284

image CHARGING AN ELECTRIC CAR.© STEVE MANN/DREAMTIMEFigure 11.17 and Figure 11.18 show the market shares of thepower train technologies discussed here for MDV and HDV in2009, in 2030 Energy [R]evolution and in 2050 Energy[R]evolution. These figures form the basis of the energyconsumption calculation in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.Figure 11.19 shows the energy consumption, based on efficiencyratios of various HDV and MDV power trains relative to dieselpowered vehicles.Energy [R]evolution fleet average transport energy intensities forMDV and HDV were derived using region-specific IEA energyintensity data of MDV and HDV transport until 2050 179 , with thespecific energy consumption factors of Figure 11.19 applied tothe IEA data and matched with the region-specific market sharesof the power train technologies.table 11.5: the world average energy intensities forMDV and HDV in 2009 and 2050 energy [r]evolutionMDVHDV20095,02 MJ/t-km1,53 MJ/t-km2050 E[R]2,18 MJ/t-km0,74 MJ/t-kmThe reduction between 2009 and 2050 Energy [R]evolution on aper ton-km basis is then 57% for MDV and 52% for HDV.The DLR’s Institute of Vehicle Concepts conducted a specialstudy to look at future vehicle concepts to see what the potentialmight be for reducing the overall energy consumption of existingand future trucks when applying energy efficient technologies. Theapproach will show the potential of different technologiesinfluencing the energy efficiency of future trucks and will alsoindicate possible cost developments.figure 11.17: fuel share of medium duty vehicles(global average) by transport performance (ton-km)figure 11.18: fuel share of heavy duty vehicles(global average) by transport performance (ton-km)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%HDV2009 2030 E[R] 2050 E[R]• ELECTRIC• HYDROGEN• CNG• HYBRID• GASOLINE• DIESEL100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2009 2030 E[R] 2050 E[R]• ELECTRIC• HYDROGEN• CNG• HYBRID• DIESELfigure 11.19: specific energy consumption of HDV and MDV in litres of gasoline equivalent per 100 tkm in 205011transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORTMDVDIESELGASOLINEHYBRID (DIESEL)CNG• HYDROGENELECTRIC0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0reference179 WBSCD 2004.285

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK11transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORTInland Navigation Technical measures to reduce energyconsumption of inland vessels include: 180• aerodynamic improvements to the hull to reducefriction resistance• improving the propeller design to increase efficiency• enhancing engine efficiency.For inland navigation we assumed a reduction of 40% of globalaveraged energy intensity in relation to a 2009 value of 0.5MJ/t-km. This means a reduction to 0.3 MJ/t-km.Marine Transport Several technological measures can be appliedto new vessels in order to reduce overall fuel consumption innational and international marine transport. These technologiescomprise for example:• weather routing to optimise the vessel’s route• autopilot adjustments to minimise steering• improved hull coatings to reduce friction losses• improved hull openings to optimise water flow• air lubrication systems to reduce water resistances• improvements in the design and shape of the hull and rudder• waste heat recovery systems to increase overall efficiency• improvement of the diesel engine (e.g. common-rail technology)• installing towing kites and wind engines to use wind energyfor propulsion• using solar energy for onboard power demandAdding each technology effectiveness figure stated by ICCT(2011), these technologies have a potential to improve energyefficiency of new vessels between 18.4% and about 57%. Anotheroption to reduce energy demand of ships is simply to reduceoperating speeds. Up to 36% of fuel consumption can be saved byreducing the vessel’s speed by 20%. 181 Eyring et al. (2005) reportthat a 25% reduction of fuel consumption for an internationalmarine diesel fleet is achievable by using more efficient alternativepropulsion devices only. 182 Up to 30% reduction in energy demandis reported by Marintek (2000) only by optimising the hull shapeand propulsion devices of new vessels. 183The model assumes a total of 40% energy efficiencyimprovement potential for international shipping.box 11.1: case study: wind powered shipsIntroduced to commercial operation in 2007, the SkySailssystem uses wind power, which has no fuel costs, tocontribute to the motion of large freight-carrying ships,which currently use increasingly expensive andenvironmentally damaging oil. Instead of a traditional sailfitted to a mast, the system uses large towing kites tocontribute to the ship’s propulsion. Shaped like paragliders,they are tethered to the vessel by ropes and can becontrolled automatically, responding to wind conditions andthe ship’s trajectory.The kites can operate at altitudes of between 100 and 300metres, where there are stronger and more stable winds. Withdynamic flight patterns, the SkySails are able to generate fivetimes more power per square metre of sail area thanconventional sails. Depending on the prevailing winds, thecompany claims that a ship’s average annual fuel costs canbe reduced by 10% to 35%. Under oprimal wind conditions,fuel consumption can temporarily be cut by 50%.On the first voyage of the Beluga SkySails, a 133m longspecially-built cargo ship, the towing kite propulsion systemwas able to temporarily substitute for approximately 20%of the vessel’s main engine power, even in moderate winds.The company is now planning a kite twice the size of this160m 2 pilot.The designers say that virtually all sea-going cargo vesselscan be retro- or outfitted with the SkySails propulsionsytsem without extensive modifications. If 1,600 ships wereequipped with these sails by 2015, it would save over 146million tonnes of CO2 a year, equivalent to about 15% ofGermany’s total emissions.286references180 BASED ON VAN ROMPUY, 2010.181 ICCT, 2011.182 EYRING ET AL., 2005.183 MARINTEK, 2000.

image A SIGN PROMOTES A HYDROGEN REFUELING STATION IN REYKJAVIK. THESESTATIONS ARE PART OF A PLAN TO TRY AND MAKE ICELAND A ‘HYDROGEN ECONOMY.’image PARKING SPACE FOR HYBRIDS ONLY.© STEVE MORGAN/GP© TARAN55/DREAMSTIMEPassenger cars This section draws on the future vehicletechnologies study conducted by the DLR’s Institute of VehicleConcepts. The approach shows the potential of differenttechnologies influencing the energy efficiency of future cars.Many technologies can be used to improve the fuel efficiency ofpassenger cars. Examples include improvements in engines,weight reduction as well as friction and drag reduction. 184The impact of the various measures on fuel efficiency can besubstantial. Hybrid vehicles, combining a conventionalcombustion engine with an electric engine, have relatively low fuelconsumption. The most well-known is the Toyota Prius, whichoriginally had a fuel efficiency of about 5 litres of gasolineequivalentper 100 km (litre ge/100 km). Toyota has recentlypresented an improved version with a lower fuel consumption of4.3 litres ge/100 km. Applying new lightweight materials, incombination with new propulsion technologies, can bring fuelconsumption levels down to 1 litre ge/100 km.The figure below gives the energy intensities calculated usingpower train market shares and efficiency improvements for LDV inthe Reference scenario and in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.The energy intensities for car passenger transport are currentlyhighest in OECD North America and lowest in OECD Europe. TheReference scenario shows a decrease in energy intensities in allregions, but the division between highest and lowest will remainthe same, although there will be some convergence. We haveassumed that the occupancy rate for cars remains nearly the sameas in 2009, as shown in the figure below.figure 11.20: energy intensities for freight railtransport in the energy [r]evolution scenariolitres ge/v-kmOECD EUROPEOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAAFRICACHINAINDIALATIN AMERICAOTHER NON-OECD ASIAEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAMIDDLE EASTTable 11.6 summarises the energy efficiency improvement forpassenger transport in the Energy [R]evolution 2050 scenario andTable 11.7 shows the energy efficiency improvement for freighttransport in the Energy [R]evolution 2050 scenario.table 11.6: technical efficiency potential for worldpassenger transportMJ/P-KMLDVAir (Domestic)BusesMini-busesTwo wheelsThree wheelsPassenger rail20091.52.50.50.50.50.70.4table 11.7: technical efficiency potential for worldfreight transportMJ/T-KMMDVHDVFreight railInland Navigationfigure 11.21: LDV occupancy rates in 2009and in the energy [r]evolution 2050122.01.8101.61.481.261.00.840.60.420.200.02009•• 20092050 REFERENCE2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2050 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONOECD EUROPEOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIALATIN AMERICAOTHER NON-OECD ASIAEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIACHINA20094.81.60.20.5MIDDLE EASTINDIA2050 E[R]0.31.20.30.30.30.50.22050 E[R]2.70.80.10.3AFRICA11transport | TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIOURAL MEASURES TO REDUCE TRANSPORTreferences184 DECICCO ET AL., 2001.287

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK11transport | PROJECTION OF THE FUTURE LDV MARKET11.3 projection of the future LDV market11.3.1 projection of the future technology mixTo achieve the substantial CO2-reduction targets in the Energy[R]evolution scenario would require a radical shift in fuels forcars and other light duty vehicles. It would mean thatconventional fossil fueled cars are no longer used in 2050 inalmost all world regions except for Africa. For viable, fullelectrification based on renewable energy sources, the modelassumes that petrol and diesel fuelled autonomous hybrids andplug-in hybrids that we have today are phased out already by2050. That is, two generations of hybrid technologies will pavethe way for the complete transformation to light duty vehicleswith full battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powertrains. This isthe only way that is efficient enough for the use of renewableenergy to reach the CO2-targets in the LDV sector.In the future it may not be possible to power LDVs for allpurposes by rechargeable batteries only. Therefore, hydrogen isrequired as a renewable fuel especially for larger LDVs includinglight commercial vehicles. Biofuels and remaining oil will be usedin other applications where a substitution is even harder than forLDVs. Figure 11.22 shows the share of fuel cell vehicles(autonomous hybrids) and full battery electric vehicles (gridconnectable)in 2050 in the new vehicle market.11.3.2 projection of the future vehicle segment splitFor future vehicle segment split the scenario is constructed todisaggregate the light-duty vehicle sales into three segments:small, medium and large vehicles. In this way, the model showsthe effect of ‘driving small urban cars’, to see if they are suitablefor megacities of the future. The size and CO2 emissions of theOECD EUROPEOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIALATIN AMERICAOTHER NON-OECD ASIAEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIACHINAMIDDLE EASTINDIAAFRICAvehicles are particularly interesting in the light of the enormousgrowth predicted in the LDV stock. For our purposes we coulddivide up the numerous car types as follows:• The very small car bracket includes city, supermini,minicompact cars as well as one and two seaters.• The small sized bracket includes compact and subcompactcars, micro and subcompact vans and small SUVs.• The medium sized bracket includes car derived vans and smallstation wagons, upper medium class, midsize cars and stationwagons, executive class, compact passenger vans, car derivedpickups, medium SUVs, 2WD and 4WD.• The large car bracket includes all kinds of luxury class, luxurymulti purpose vehicles, medium and heavy vans, compact andfull-size pickup trucks (2WD, 4WD), standard and luxurySUVs. In addition, we looked at light duty trucks in NorthAmerica and light commercial vehicles in China separately.In examining the segment split, we have focused most strongly onthe two world regions which will be the largest emitters of CO2from cars in 2050: North America and China. In North Americatoday the small vehicle segment is almost non-existant. We foundit necessary to introduce here small cars substantially up to asales share of 50% in 2050, triggered by rising fuel prices andpossibly vehicle taxes. For China, we have anticipated a similarshare of the mature car market as for Europe and projected thatthe small segment will grow by 3% per year at the expenses ofthe larger segments in the light of rising mass mobility. Thesegment split is shown in Figure 11.23.figure 11.22: sales share of conventional ICE,autonomous hybrid and grid-connectable vehicles in 2050figure 11.23: vehicle sales by segment in 2009 and 2050in the energy [r]evolution scenario100%100%90%90%80%80%70%70%60%60%50%50%40%40%30%30%20%20%10%10%0%0%CONVENTIONAL•GRID CONNECTABLEAUTONOMOUS HYBRIDS LARGE• MEDIUM20052050OECD EUROPE20052050OECD AMERICAS20052050OECD ASIA OCEANIA20052050LATIN AMERICA20052050OTHER NON-OECD ASIA20052050EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA20052050CHINA20052050MIDDLE EAST20052050INDIA20052050AFRICA288

image CARS ON THE ROAD NEAR MANCHESTER.ROAD TRANSPORT IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST SOURCESOF POLLUTION IN THE UK, CONTRIBUTING TO POORAIR QUALITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, CONGESTION ANDNOISE DISTURBANCE. OF THE 33 MILLIONVEHICLES ON OUR ROADS, 27 MILLION ARE CARS.© STEVE MORGAN/GP11.3.3 projection of the future switch to alternative fuelsA switch to renewable fuels in the car fleet is one of thecornerstones of the low CO2 car scenario, with the mostprominent element the direct use of renewable electricity in cars.The different types of electric and hybrid cars, such as batteryelectric and plug-in hybrid, are summarised as ‘plug-in electric’.Their introduction will start in industrialised countries in 2015,following an s-curve pattern, and are projected to reach about40% of total LDV sales in the EU, North America and thePacific OECD by 2050. Due to the higher costs of the technologyand renewable electricity availability, we have slightly delayedprogress in other countries. More cautious targets are applied forAfrica. The sales split in vehicles by fuel is presented in Figure11.24 for 2005 and 2050.figure 11.24: fuel split in vehicle sales for 2050energy [r]evolution by world region100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%OECD EUROPEOECD AMERICASOECD ASIA OCEANIAPETROL (ONLY)DIESEL (ONLY)CNG/LPG• HYDROGENPLUGIN ELECTRICLATIN AMERICAOTHER NON-OECD ASIAEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIACHINAMIDDLE EASTfigure 11.25: development of the global LDV stockunder the reference scenario3,5003,000INDIAAFRICA11.3.4 projection of the global vehicle stock developmentThere are huge differences in forecasts for the growth of vehiclesales in developing countries. In general, the increase in sales andthus vehicle stock and ownersip is linked to the forecast of GDPgrowth, which is a well established correlation in the sciencecommunity. However, this scenario analysis found that technologyshift in LDVs alone – although linked to enormous efficiencygains and fuel switch - is not enough to fulfil the ambitiousEnergy [R]evolution CO2 targets. A slow down of vehicle salesgrowth and a limitation or even reduction in vehicle ownershipper capita compared to the reference scenario was thus required.Global urbanisation, the on-going rise of megacities, where spacefor parking is scarce, and the trend starting today that ownershipof cars might not be seen as desirable as in the past supports,draws a different scenario of the future compared to thereference case. Going against the global pattern of a century, thisdevelopment would have to be supported by massive policyintervention to promote modal shift and alternative forms of carusage. The development of the global car market is shown inFigure 11.25 and 11.26.figure 11.26: development of the global LDV stockunder the energy [r]evolution scenario3,5003,00011transport | PROJECTION OF THE FUTURE LDV MARKETLDV stock (millions)2,5002,0001,5001,000LDV stock (millions)2,5002,0001,5001,000500500002000200520102015202020252030203520402045205020002005201020152020202520302035204020452050AFRICANON OECD ASIAINDIAMIDDLE EAST• CHINAEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA• LATIN AMERICAOECD ASIA OCEANIA•OECD NORTH AMERICAOECD EUROPEAFRICANON OECD ASIAINDIAMIDDLE EAST• CHINAEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA• LATIN AMERICAOECD ASIA OCEANIA•OECD NORTH AMERICAOECD EUROPE289

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK11transport | CONCLUSION11.3.5 projection of the future kilometres driven per yearUntil a full shift from fossil to renewable fuels has taken place, drivingon the road will create CO2 emissions. Thus driving less contributes toour target for emissions reduction. However, this shift does not have tomean reduced mobility because there are many excellent opportunitiesfor shifts from individual passenger road transport towards less CO2intense public or non-motorised transport.Data on average annual kilometres driven are uncertain in manyworld regions except for North America, Europe and recentlyChina. The scenario starts from the state-of-the-art knowledge onhow LDVs are driven in the different world regions and thenprojects a decline in car usage. This is a further major buildingblock in the low carbon strategy of the Energy [R]evolutionscenario, which goes hand in hand with new mobility concepts likeco-modality and car-sharing concepts. In 2050, policies supportingthe use of public transport and environmental friendly modes areanticipated to be in place in all world regions. Our scenario ofannual kilometres driven (AKD) by LDVs is shown in Figure11.27. In total, AKD fall almost by one quarter until 2050compared to 2010.figure 11.27: average annual LDV kilometres drivenper world region25,00020,00015,00010,0005,00002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050AFRICAINDIAMIDDLE EASTCHINAEASTERN EUROPE/EURASIANON OECD ASIALATIN AMERICAOECD ASIA OCEANIA•OECD NORTH AMERICAOECD EUROPE11.4 conclusionIn a business as usual world we project a high rise of transportenergy demand until 2050 in all world regions in the Referencescenario, which is fuelled especially by fast developing countrieslike China and India.The aim of this chapter was therefore to show ways to reduceenergy demand in general and the dependency on climatedamagingfossil fuels in the transport sector.The findings of our scenario calculations show that in order toreach the ambitious energy reduction goals of the Energy[R]evolution scenario a combination of behavioral changes andtremendous technical efforts is needed:• a decrease of passenger and freight kilometerson a per capita base• a massive shift to electrically and hydrogen powered vehicleswhose energy sources may be produced by renewables• a gradual decrease of all modes’ energy intensities bytechnological progress• a modal shift from aviation to high speed rail and from roadfreight to rail freight.These measures must of course be accompanied by major efforts inthe installation and extension of the necessary infrastructures as forexample in railway networks hydrogen and battery charginginfrastructure for electric vehicles and an electrification of highways.LiteratureAkerman, J. (2005): Sustainable air transport - on track in 2050.Transportation Research Part D, 10, 111-126.Bradley, M. and Droney, C. (2011): Subsonic Ultra Green AircraftResearch: Phase I Final Report, issued by NASA.DLR (2011): Vehicles of the Future, Preliminary Report.Eyring, V., Köhler, H., Lauer, A., Lemper, B. (2005): Emissions fromInternational Shipping: 2. Impact of Future Technologies on ScenariosUntil 2050, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D17305.Fulton, L. and Eads, G. (2004): IEA/SMP Model Documentation andReference Case Projection, published by WBSCD.Geerts, S., Verwerft, B., Vantorre, M. and Van Rompuy, F. (2010):Improving the efficiency of small inland vessels, Proceedings of theEuropean Inland Waterway Navigation Conference.ICAO (2008): Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection(CAEP), Steering Group Meeting, FESG CAEP/8 Traffic and FleetForecasts.ICCT (2011): Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships – CostEffectiveness of Available Options.Marintek (2000): Study of Greenhouse Emissions from Ships, FinalReport to the International Maritime Organziation.Tavasszy, L. and Van Meijeren, J. (2011): Modal Shift Target forFreight Transport Above 300 km: An Assessment, Discussion Paper,17th ACEA SAG Meeting.TOSCA (2011): Technology Opportunities and Strategies towardClimate-friendly transport (Reports).290

glossary & appendixGLOSSARY OF COMMONLY USEDTERMS AND ABBREVIATIONSDEFINITION OF SECTORS1212“because we usesuch inefficientlighting, 80 coal firedpower plants arerunning day andnight to producethe energy thatis wasted.”© NASA/JESSE ALLEN, ROBERT SIMMONimage ICEBERGS FLOATING IN MACKENZIE BAY ON THE THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF ANTARCTICA’S AMERY ICE SHELF, EARLY FEBRUARY 2012.291

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK12glossary & appendix | GLOSSARY12.1 glossary of commonly used termsand abbreviationsCHPCO2GDPPPPIEACombined Heat and PowerCarbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gasGross Domestic Product(means of assessing a country’s wealth)Purchasing Power Parity (adjustment to GDP assessmentto reflect comparable standard of living)International Energy AgencyJ Joule, a measure of energy:kJ (Kilojoule) = 1,000 JoulesMJ (Megajoule) = 1 million JoulesGJ (Gigajoule) = 1 billion JoulesPJ (Petajoule) = 10 15 JoulesEJ (Exajoule) = 10 18 JoulesW Watt, measure of electrical capacity:kW (Kilowatt) = 1,000 wattsMW (Megawatt) = 1 million wattsGW (Gigawatt) = 1 billion wattsTW (Terawatt) = 1 12 wattskWh Kilowatt-hour, measure of electrical output:kWh (Kilowatt-hour) = 1,000 watt-hoursTWh (Terawatt-hour) = 10 12 watt-hoursttGtTonnes, measure of weight:= 1 tonne= 1 billion tonnestable 12.1: conversion factors - fossil fuelsFUELCoalLigniteOilGas23.038.456.1238000.00MJ/kgMJ/kgGJ/barrelkJ/m 31 cubic1 barrel1 US gallon1 UK gallon0.0283 m 3159 liter3.785 liter4.546 liter12.2 definition of sectorsThe definition of different sectors follows the sectorial breakdown of the IEA World Energy Outlook series.All definitions below are from the IEA Key World Energy Statistics.Industry sector: Consumption in the industry sector includes thefollowing subsectors (energy used for transport by industry isnot included -> see under “Transport”)• Iron and steel industry• Chemical industry• Non-metallic mineral products e.g. glass, ceramic, cement etc.• Transport equipment• Machinery• Mining• Food and tobacco• Paper, pulp and print• Wood and wood products (other than pulp and paper)• Construction• Textile and LeatherTransport sector: The Transport sector includes all fuels fromtransport such as road, railway, aviation, domestic navigation.Fuel used for ocean, coastal and inland fishing is includedin “Other Sectors”.Other sectors: “Other Sectors” covers agriculture, forestry, fishing,residential, commercial and public services.Non-energy use: Covers use of other petroleum products such asparaffin waxes, lubricants, bitumen etc.table 12.2: conversion factors - different energy unitsTO: TJMULTIPLY BYFROMGcalMtoeMbtuGWhTJGcalMtoeMbtuGWh14.1868 x 10 -34.1868 x 10 41.0551 x 10 -33.6238.8110 70.2528602.388 x 10 -510 (-7)12.52 x 10 -88.6 x 10 -5947.83.9683968 x 10 7 134120.27781.163 x 10 -3116302.931 x 10 -4 1292

global: scenario results data12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - GLOBAL© NASA/MARIT JENTOFT-NILSEN, ROBERT SIMMONimage THE EARTH ON JULY 11, 2005 AS SEEN BY NASA’S EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM, A COORDINATED SERIES OF SATELLITES THAT MONITOR HOW EARTH IS CHANGING.THEY DOCUMENT EARTH’S BIOSPHERE, CARBON MONOXIDE, AEROSOLS, ELEVATION, AND NET RADIATION.293

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKglobal: reference scenario12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - GLOBALtable 12.3: global: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energyDistribution losses1,682Own consumption electricity1,692Electricity for hydrogen production 0Final energy consumption (electricity) 16,707Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)PJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.MILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public294200918,0645,6981,7123,2808251072,6761803,22627302065111,9924881851,13183104201,45154220,05613,5096,1861,8974,4109081072,67603,8723,22627302028467112941.5%19.3%table 12.4: global: heat supply20096,5986,331265036,3035,938355100124,37390,03333,465545329137,274102,30234,085546342025.5%table 12.5: global: co2 emissions200910,1176,0901,7571,529659821,7795912468519211,8966,6812,0022,37983327,925133%4,6743,380551611,5262,8296,8184.1201522,3527,8021,7064,027669912,9492963,7918069108911512,2375841801,26072137401,56667224,58916,3928,3861,8865,287741912,94905,2493,7918069108433941511,8631,974020,7449153.7%21.3%20156,9466,568374047,0746,661390230142,878105,88335,699883411156,898119,11236,464884438024.1%201512,0737,8651,7521,850540661,7846702028347813,8568,5351,9542,68468431,951153%5,8733,617629913,4012,7617,2844.4202026,0719,5431,6504,641601833,4954014,2231,127511581133522,4206751701,33660173501,62379728,49018,75910,2181,8205,977661833,49506,2374,2231,127511585741183522,1232,232024,1281,2864.5%21.9%20207,4176,937475047,6767,174471310151,410113,45736,3651,099489166,502127,56737,3111,100525023.4%202013,5689,2731,6632,082490601,7817031758356915,3499,9751,8372,91761934,751166%6,3933,761667314,8353,0897,6684.5203032,64612,7961,4166,107479733,9386964,8341,71021434116381132,8158151611,54247241901,7761,03935,46123,43613,6111,5767,649526733,93808,0884,8341,71021434193717281132,5782,671130,2012,0645.8%22.8%20307,4986,894598158,4637,834582470162,652122,56137,6751,742673178,613137,28938,8561,743725023.1%203016,17711,7121,3192,714379521,8517601668715518,02812,4721,4843,58548739,192187%6,7743,967771617,4303,3068,3724.7204039,04515,7311,2437,943404714,0581,0125,3252,298392548225143433,1819391521,724453071401,9131,26842,22628,25316,6701,3959,667449714,05809,9155,3252,2983925481,319238143433,0613,083236,0602,8896.8%23.5%20407,7167,110600159,1248,338712750172,640129,02440,0442,5421,030189,480144,47241,3562,5431,110023.8%204018,50713,5071,1633,475312511,9468201569244520,45414,3271,3204,39940842,968205%6,9974,055873319,7823,4018,9784.8205044,80417,8981,1479,923360684,1831,2975,7802,838559746283222583,5121,0601461,867403782002,0281,48448,31632,51118,9591,29411,790401684,183011,6235,7802,8385597461,675303222583,5153,481341,2933,6437.5%24.1%20508,1707,5915740510,0369,0468711190181,464133,99742,9353,2551,277199,670150,63444,3803,2551,400024.6%205019,34314,0291,0803,922263492,0458811539763521,38814,9101,2334,89734745,267216%7,1854,097984720,6503,4879,4694.8table 12.6: global: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energyFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.7: global: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal20094,3871,13829798731946395349951470191100521125402865218003991224,9083,2901,2633381,2733724639501,224995147019511100165.83.4%24.9%2009498,243401,126120,81121,649107,498151,16829,21567,90211,61798362652,0402,634213.6%2009 2015386,456351,44594,46286,1003,6143,4721,27627204.0%335,013303,80081,57775,5292,9232,15896718702.9%95,20224,1314,6584,60711022,02613,29023,40307,73115013.1%127,02135,0496,7665,9741265,99518,07026,03054535,15120733.7%57,65319.0%31,21323,9795,6921,54220155,5431,5592921,23828254420571,1373973881451553134353085322103971566,0963,9541,6933271,5453355442001,7211,137397388791551485.68.0%28.2%2015568,874457,556147,91221,418121,067167,15932,16979,14913,6502,9021,39758,0993,095513.9%119,10732,5636,9515,20029331,53514,60025,70749,48116014.1%137,87540,8398,7176,3383285,75019,33328,91487935,55227033.2%66,23418.8%35,01226,1097,0181,88520206,2941,8262871,40024749485711,2505251712418111578149323284027104001786,8724,3591,9753181,7292884948502,0281,250525171249818111649.79.5%29.5%2020615,685491,659166,39920,343131,682173,23638,12585,90015,2054,0571,96061,0773,593713.9%table 12.8: global: final energy demand2020416,436379,485100,18190,8213,8364,0701,45531804.4%131,61338,3488,3955,67436635,22015,02927,40579,91317014.2%147,69047,05810,3026,7944075,45320,00431,0501,09235,90833032.5%71,12518.7%36,95227,3547,5812,01720307,6352,3502321,698187465391171,4257546823425244633169273722538104042298,2685,1062,5192592,0702124653902,6221,425754682341552724499212.0%31.7%2030693,951550,601192,30416,891155,412185,99342,958100,39317,4036,1553,61468,4434,7284814.4%2030469,241429,613116,457103,9494,9735,6121,92043835.2%147,13447,33010,7955,85744636,11115,18531,5131111,10819015.2%166,02259,47413,5647,3925134,86719,97835,7241,73236,35849731.7%81,09318.9%39,62728,9768,4992,15220408,9912,7981962,117159455491671,564959116351354013698190244092449204212789,6905,9622,9882202,5261834554903,1791,564959116351215374013132213.6%32.8%2040760,603601,888209,39115,096179,878197,52244,275114,44019,1738,2755,62975,2485,96115515.0%2040517,946476,674132,881116,6506,5977,1292,50058755.8%160,37955,62013,0596,07349235,67715,20235,3422212,42122016.2%183,41571,69716,8347,9525543,69019,50339,8752,52037,32085831.7%91,82119.3%41,27129,8349,2262,211205010,2673,1241822,584133425652111,6951,1351604714462187612172343423603044331711,0286,7633,3422053,0181564256503,6991,6951,135160471272476218162414.7%33.5%2050805,253633,413212,15114,094195,804211,36545,636126,20420,81110,2197,71880,5036,74420915.6%2050564,280521,892150,478131,3667,9848,0183,10274695.8%171,87462,63515,0676,56555034,75815,50838,7326413,58231017.0%199,54082,91919,9468,6425712,49219,00343,2403,19138,9591,09432.0%101,82119.5%42,38830,4639,7252,201

global: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.9: global: electricity generationtable 12.12: global: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030Power plants18,064 21,648 23,766 29,082 36,131 41,258 Power plants4,387 5,519 6,741 9,513Coal5,698 7,135 7,154 5,731 3,218 152 Coal1,138 1,327 1,335 1,069Lignite1,712 1,669 1,042 130 8 0 Lignite297 283 180 22Gas3,280 3,984 4,254 3,740 2,429 672 Gas987 1,180 1,234 1,139Oil825 648 318 95 22 4 Oil319 254 131 45Diesel107 77 59 31 17 10 Diesel46 38 29 16Nuclear2,676 2,226 1,623 557 182 0 Nuclear395 314 225 75Biomass180 274 310 359 371 355 Biomass34 53 56 62Hydro3,226 3,771 4,192 4,542 4,818 5,009 Hydro995 1,132 1,246 1,347Wind273 1,320 2,989 6,971 10,822 13,767 Wind147 638 1,357 2,908of which wind offshore0 45 190 1,243 2,345 3,160 of which wind offshore0 14 61 391PV20 289 878 2,634 5,242 7,290 PV19 234 674 1,764Geothermal65 144 342 1,062 1,923 2,599 Geothermal11 24 54 174Solar thermal power plants11 92 466 2,672 5,988 9,348 Solar thermal power plants00 34 166 714Ocean energy19 139 560 1,089 2,053 Ocean energy9 54 176Combined heat & power plants 1,992 2,379 2,959 3,959 4,825 5,315 Combined heat & power production 521 585 685 893Coal488 528 518 562 346 77 Coal125 122 113 114Lignite185 121 87 20 0 0 Lignite40 26 18 4Gas1,131 1,378 1,631 1,935 1,890 1,484 Gas286 340 411 518Oil83 63 37 10 4 2 Oil52 47 24 2Biomass104 274 621 1,162 1,823 2,336 Biomass18 48 106 203Geothermal20 14 58 239 658 1,167 Geothermal00 30 11 45Hydrogen0 7 31 104 249 Hydrogen1 7CHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers1,451 1,609 1,852 2,210 2,436 2,429 Main activity producers399 408 450 522Autoproducers542 770 1,107 1,749 2,389 2,885 Autoproducers122 177 234 371Total generation20,056 24,028 26,725 33,041 40,955 46,573 Total generation4,908 6,104 7,426 10,406Fossil13,509 15,604 15,099 12,253 7,934 2,401 Fossil3,290 3,617 3,475 2,931Coal6,186 7,664 7,671 6,292 3,564 229 Coal1,263 1,449 1,448 1,184Lignite1,897 1,791 1,129 149 8 0 Lignite338 309 199 26Gas4,410 5,362 5,885 5,675 4,318 2,156 Gas1,273 1,520 1,645 1,657Oil908 711 355 105 27 6 Oil372 300 154 48Diesel107 77 59 31 17 10 Diesel46 38 29 16Nuclear2,676 2,226 1,623 557 182 0 Nuclear395 314 225 75Hydrogen0 0 7 31 104 249 Hydrogen0 0 1 7Renewables3,872 6,198 9,996 20,201 32,735 43,923 Renewables1,224 2,174 3,724 7,392Hydro3,226 3,771 4,192 4,542 4,818 5,009 Hydro995 1,132 1,246 1,347Wind273 1,320 2,989 6,971 10,822 13,767 Wind147 638 1,357 2,908of which wind offshore0 45 190 1,243 2,345 3,160 of which wind offshore0 14 61 391PV20 289 878 2,634 5,242 7,290 PV19 234 674 1,764Biomass284 548 932 1,521 2,194 2,691 Biomass51 101 162 265Geothermal67 159 400 1,301 2,581 3,765 Geothermal11 26 65 219Solar thermal11 92 466 2,672 5,988 9,348 Solar thermal00 34 166 714Ocean energy19 139 560 1,089 2,053 Ocean energy9 54 176Distribution losses1,682 1,834 1,899 2,037 2,075 2,113 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 165.8 880 2,085 4,847Own consumption electricity1,692 1,864 1,928 1,950 1,864 1,791 Share of fluctuating RES3.4% 14.4% 28.1% 46.6%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 2 477 2,114 5,236 7,923 RES share (domestic generation) 24.9% 35.6% 50.2% 71.0%Final energy consumption (electricity) 16,707 20,321 22,387 26,892 31,756 34,749Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 294 1,628 4,006 10,166 17,154 23,109Share of fluctuating RES1.5% 6.8% 15.0% 30.8% 41.9% 49.6%table 12.13: global: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 19.3% 25.8% 37.4% 61.1% 79.9% 94.3%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 446 1,905 5,000 8,715 12,776 PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030Total498,243 542,460 544,209 526,958Fossil401,126 427,789 400,614 306,616table 12.10: global: heat supplyHard coal120,811 135,310 130,599 103,37620092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite21,649 19,621 12,234 1,843Natural gas107,498 120,861 124,069 106,228Crude oil151,168 151,996 133,712 95,169PJ/a2015CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)4.1 4.10 2,2923.67,413District heating6,598 7,882 9,734Fossil fuels6,331 6,798 6,716Biomass265 725 1,524Solar collectors03 158 820Geothermal200 674Heat from CHP6,303 9,005 11,610Fossil fuels5,938 7,798 8,546Biomass355 1,085 2,594Geothermal10 122 444Hydrogen0 0 26Direct heating 1)124,373 136,902 135,432Fossil fuels90,033 96,094 86,846Biomass33,465 36,421 36,279Solar collectors545 2,707 6,904Geothermal 2)329 1,680 4,824Hydrogen0 0 579Total heat supply 1)137,274 153,788 156,775Fossil fuels102,302 110,690 102,108Biomass34,085 38,232 40,397Solar collectors546 2,865 7,724Geothermal 1)342 2,001 5,942Hydrogen0 0 604RES share25.5% 28.0% 34.6%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 3,110 9,7271) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015 2020Condensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversion10,1176,0901,7571,529659821,7795912468519211,8966,6812,0022,37983327,925133%4,6743,380551611,5262,82911,1977,1181,6991,814510561,7916081479746212,9887,7261,8452,78862829,659142%5,2953,3355,79412,4642,77110,1166,9171,0311,875249441,7495501011,0653311,8657,4681,1322,94032627,337131%5,0072,8535,63011,2732,575Population (Mill.)6,818 7,284 7,668table 12.11: global: co2 emissions1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public12,0285,1582,4282,4761,96617,1149,8585,1631,912180128,26161,81834,98117,52712,0601,874157,40276,83442,57320,00415,9382,05450.7%21,21120307,0775,2781291,57672231,668525231,110108,7465,8031522,68610520,00796%3,8271,9124,2748,0821,9118,3722.419,18514,1842,3683,0134,8513,95222,2378,2198,0365,388595120,32831,15432,55630,38522,6833,550156,75041,74143,60535,23632,0234,14572.8%32,73020403,8252,78771,00116131,248277096745,0733,06471,9683410,48250%2,0191,0032,1244,4918458,9781.232,48616,6112703,3366,9746,03125,2995,3719,5129,1481,268111,2898,26727,52038,11832,3095,075153,20013,90840,36845,09247,4886,34390.7%46,470205039312402584873652068131,1291750939143,07615%7423521,0157212479,4690.342,191Nuclear29,215Renewables67,902Hydro11,617Wind983Solar626Biomass52,040Geothermal/ambient heat2,634Ocean energy2RES share13.6%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal2009335,013303,80081,57775,5292,9232,15896718702.9%95,20224,1314,6584,60711022,02613,29023,40307,73115013.1%127,02135,0496,7665,9741265,99518,07026,03054535,15120733.7%57,65319.0%31,21323,9795,6921,54224,28990,38313,5784,7514,60461,0546,3267016.6%26,5432015371,184337,32586,81279,1063,2143,1251,36235144.0%113,92431,3278,0817,31798926,31412,44725,9997909,183547017.2%136,58940,46810,4387,1159205,62817,15326,7041,91836,68491737.2%73,94421.9%33,85924,3106,9702,58017,714125,88015,09210,76314,32268,82716,37650023.1%72,106table 12.14: global: final energy demand2020378,684344,15886,75876,3583,2974,5212,3218682626.3%120,11235,47013,2669,8532,79025,3979,30225,7802,0309,9881,65264024.9%137,28843,07816,1128,7122,4295,06812,48224,9104,87435,5492,61544.9%97,03128.2%34,52522,5007,8494,1776,079214,26216,35225,10247,49875,35247,9432,01640.6%167,6662030375,580340,07078,01457,1773,1236,4219,1105,5702,18317.1%122,22240,37224,68314,4287,00317,7014,81022,5995,22910,6484,3542,08043.5%139,83448,43229,61111,9215,8323,4087,08617,51012,29833,0406,13962.2%153,43445.1%35,51019,3678,2827,861204012,6446491801101024651,4284,2876883,3353251,3623451,04471050613251212154350113,6882,04972011,3061110242111,5941,4284,2876883,3353904461,3623457,96858.2%84.7%2040504,731185,21458,6557773,45253,0301,984317,53317,34738,96894,22176,96786,1103,92062.9%256,3322040362,042326,09565,02527,6722,8317,11620,02216,0037,38544.6%120,71943,61734,86318,93113,4985,6332,46714,89011,10210,6429,5653,87268.6%140,35152,32641,82414,60710,7311,1193,5129,65219,29329,49210,35079.6%223,47568.5%35,94716,6368,10511,206205014,803340309350651,4845,2368924,5484562,0546101,10425039404252104950859615,9077706007033504915,0871,4845,2368924,5484906662,05461010,39465.3%94.8%2050481,03984,98419,484035,55729,9420396,05518,03649,571134,09971,590115,3697,38982.3%324,5072050350,884316,15760,52912,4362,6366,73026,45424,94912,27371.5%116,67945,00142,44122,26719,4006858645,07514,0869,38413,8495,46889.4%138,94954,55851,45416,90815,378767083,88624,03224,16614,61593.3%277,21487.7%34,72714,8947,29412,53929512glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - GLOBAL

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKglobal: investment & employmenttable 12.15: global: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-20502011-20502011-2050AVERAGEPER YEARReference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy3,544,4172,509,308218,2391,303,574620,265201,83985,67576,8462,8713,070,7712,394,831259,5911,166,960602,406200,91970,85484,2289,8732,706,2062,625,579292,3741,084,725802,946231,96279,430113,36720,7762,542,4352,797,442316,7761,330,598653,506238,42667,772178,54511,82011,863,82910,327,1611,086,9804,885,8572,679,123873,146303,731452,98645,339296,596258,17927,174122,14666,97821,8297,59311,3251,133Energy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy1,764,8427,105,239553,9801,289,7032,030,0881,319,654471,3991,224,562215,854760,66810,482,264482,998903,2282,921,9601,558,6461,021,3173,260,292333,823598,28913,521,260837,382863,9063,886,0642,482,1381,440,1293,640,288371,352232,28015,938,599709,2011,059,2724,001,4782,373,0331,681,8275,453,715660,0743,356,07947,047,3622,583,5604,116,10812,839,5897,733,4714,614,67313,578,8571,581,10383,9021,176,18464,589102,903320,990193,337115,367339,47139,528table 12.16: global: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $2011-20202021-20302031-20402041-20502011-20502011-2050AVERAGEPER YEARReference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps1,472,0621,238,0455,197118,306110,5141.311.4911.009.99621.887168.581111.026871.856460.94160.511212.445137.96014.516415.19640.769196.654109.0264.417.0553.124.179128.364695.986468.526110.42678.1043.20917.40011.713Energy [R]evolution scenario12RenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps4,519,8681,251,532921,2501,354,208992,8784,770,720367,121542,2212,218,1731,643,2049.164.235278.2672.750.7503.585.6992.549.5208.401.514135.4442.389.9202.774.0253.102.12526.856.3372.032.3656.604.1409.932.1058.287.728671.40850.809165.103248.303207.193glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - GLOBALtable 12.17: global: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBS20102015By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs3,2571,6691,71314,7171,12922,4859,0875,0725377,7895,2051,035728374211413833022,4851,9469061,83412,7291,30818,7226,7055,1625006,3564,652944408182162311211018,722REFERENCE2020 20301,6997881,95111,8571,45217,7465,8205,2964136,2174,55791338221013352921317,7461,2195651,90510,7381,21615,6444,5885,4402905,3263,98085323512411305751315,644ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 20304,4712,7021,93412,8851,34523,3375,5135,35825812,2085,0779251,8421,9911225041071,35228823,3374,6682,7012,31711,6671,24922,6024,0745,28126912,9784,9957381,8651,6351738551212,03656122,6023,9522,2432,6048,77258918,1612,1233,89127011,8764,5496691,7231,5281658261051,69261918,161296

oecd north america: scenario results data12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD NORTH AMERICA© NASAimage BLOOMING PHYTOPLANKTON AND COASTAL FORESTS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AUGUST 9, 2001. SHOWING PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON STATE, OREGON, AND THECANADIAN PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. VANCOUVER ISLAND IS LOCATED IN THE UPPER CENTER OF THE IMAGE. THE CASCADE RANGE BLOCKS MOISTURE COMING INFROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN, CREATING THE ARID CONDITIONS OF THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU TO THE EAST.297

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd north america: reference scenario12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD NORTH AMERICAtable 12.18: oecd north america: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energyDistribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)PJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.MILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public29820094,7199141,052917809931446667902table 12.19: oecd north america: heat supplytable 12.20: oecd north america: co2 emissions24103144272121638001741405,0323,2479561,0581,1299599310854666790282241035135904,321811.6%17.0%20098579600463423400019,46017,3762,006641420,00817,8782,0526414010.6%20092,247834954389637171445109122,418878959499826,119121%56773119802,353487457.613.420155,1541,0771,0141,01941109985170118701930703595852221855102051555,5143,4641,1351,0191,241591099801,052701187019106317039135404,7592073.8%19.1%2015156149600413344645021,89819,1802,5981011922,46719,6732,66810124012.4%20152,33296890741831716152491142,4931,021911509526,356125%63873220682,431488483.713.120205,4791,2589461,0822891,03774714248232381203726332231764202121605,8513,6291,3219491,3064591,03701,1857142482321384112040936805,0652804.8%20.2%2020143135800395313757022,12919,2462,7061542422,66719,6942,78815431013.1%20202,3801,09382043921716055391122,5411,148823530406,373126%63972920382,478487504.412.620306,0211,6177241,2161361,0741397343582060512734358022491685402641716,4563,9221,6977261,4652961,07401,46073435820602245527343338805,6254206.5%22.6%2030137126911301221736022,52419,1313,0113305322,96119,4783,09333060015.2%20302,4291,33259748794178661100112,6071,398598586256,323125%61472019702,546474541.211.720406,4611,9324761,323751,09920874747454805946548495026914101502991866,9454,1212,0274761,5922151,09901,72574747454803096446546341106,0615598.0%24.8%2040123116601242169685023,02719,0133,25762013723,39219,2983,331620143017.5%20402,4161,49538153254194760108102,6101,571381640186,297124%58571319752,547476571.111.020506,8332,0872961,444041,1252567675999287728710527106028611117703291987,3604,2352,1932961,7301241,12502,001767599928737279871049543306,4236959.4%27.2%2050106103200205135655023,84319,4163,44379518824,15319,6543,511796193018.6%20502,3631,5422375800320785011582,5701,627237695116,256123%58671619532,508494594.910.5table 12.21: oecd north america: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energyFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.22: oecd north america: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal20091,1471611833745810121818739024009781691170072251,24487516918444369101210247187390215400413.3%19.9%2009108,44990,04710,99810,33727,79040,92310,1608,2422,399286784,89458507.6%200973,97267,35228,61526,88372696145803.4%14,1023,840652251109721,5905,86801,5774015.9%24,63411,6721,980621683,1188,76264885511.9%6,1479.1%6,6216,026585920151,24218417139839131281019385014520104111701290076271,345899195172469511312803181938501418520997.4%23.6%2015116,01494,71412,7829,80628,89543,23010,86510,4352,5236752356,29870409.0%201579,22872,08130,26928,0047641,438631204.8%16,3804,597877271361,2371,7046,55912,0075017.9%25,43112,4732,380585683,0278,7761009201013.4%7,79110.8%7,1476,3427901620201,3062221654071810133131971091226301021316910100074281,40891423516547628101330361197109122236301329.3%25.7%2020117,67594,67514,2288,87429,52842,04511,29411,7062,5718923776,99387309.9%202080,29573,04429,94727,3528041,722691405.8%16,6434,785969269451,2451,6876,59112,0615018.5%26,45413,3792,709517712,8698,9281539871514.6%8,68711.9%7,2516,4308051620301,40927111943875138232041507398711171507810131086321,52694328612051617513804452041507393697118912.4%29.1%2030119,85293,58216,9276,46330,72839,46411,69414,5762,6421,2887768,6871,1741012.1%203081,88474,60929,34025,9449232,388851908.2%16,6184,9221,113246501,1631,5886,47812,2155020.4%28,65115,2433,447335662,5379,2083291,1696517.5%10,80714.5%7,2756,4468121720401,505303744734414133208192185191211291708610161094351,6349703207455814414105232081921851491012124515.0%32.0%2040122,51792,97618,8484,11731,98238,03011,96417,5762,6901,7071,30110,3931,4671814.3%table 12.23: oecd north america: final energy demand204084,18977,29930,10225,6821,2743,02811829010.2%16,4524,9741,235236511,1161,4366,36822,3146021.9%30,74416,7294,155243592,3549,3936181,35021720.6%13,01016.8%6,8906,0927801720501,61332746506031444121424131551122214019090111810102371,7531,0033464659711314406062142413155591222229917.0%34.6%2050125,32192,85719,4052,55833,81437,08012,24920,2162,7632,1571,86211,6701,7303416.1%205086,71779,90530,76025,3701,8333,39516244011.2%16,6725,0531,374230531,1021,3876,506132,36715022.9%32,47317,9084,868222492,3049,6217831,49529222.9%14,69918.4%6,8116,01777718

oecd north america: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.24: oecd north america: electricity generation table 12.27: oecd north america: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Power plants4,719 5,056 5,065 5,588 6,513 7,024 Power plants1,147 1,302 1,523 2,086 2,537 2,713Coal914 953 878 357 25 0042001 Coal161 162 155 59 40 0011000Lignite1,052 1,060 673 27 0Lignite183 179 117 4Gas917 909 847 692 294 Gas374 369 349 323 162Oil80 61 27 42 3103Oil58 46 18 2272 1101Diesel9 7 4Diesel10 10 6Nuclear931 792 410 53Nuclear121 101 52Biomass44 33 25 10Biomass8 6 4Hydro666 725 784 816 818 819 Hydro187 201 217 224 224 224Wind79 355 878 1,826 2,382 2,500 Wind39 162 386 759 961 1,011of which wind offshore02 0 16 107 283 305 of which wind offshore02400 0 6 35 90 98PV52 188 583 857 989 PV40 132 384 552 639Geothermal24 57 127 308 419 392 Geothermal10 21 52 75 77Solar thermal power plants10 43 156 696 1,334 1,857 Solar thermal power plants13 46 218 467 651Ocean energy11 69 216 376 460 Ocean energy3 20 51 89 108Combined heat & power plants 314 399 509 576 581 535 Combined heat & power production 97 116 141 153 152 120Coal42 46 42 34 00 00 Coal81 90 80 70 00 00Lignite7 0 0 0LigniteGas212 274 348 340 265 126 Gas69 86 107 108 90 39Oil16 16 13 6 4 1 Oil11 11 7 1 1 0Biomass38 59 88 133 172 194 Biomass700 10 15 24 33 40Geothermal00 20 11 39 92 158 Geothermal10 21 85 18 30Hydrogen6 25 48 57 Hydrogen10 11CHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers174 224 276 287 286 271 Main activity producers72 86 98 92 86 60Autoproducers140 175 233 289 295 264 Autoproducers25 30 43 61 66 60Total generation5,032 5,455 5,573 6,164 7,093 7,559 Total generation1,244 1,419 1,664 2,240 2,689 2,833Fossil3,247 3,326 2,833 1,460 592 133 Fossil875 872 768 507 259 41Coal956 999 921 390 25 00 Coal169 171 164 66 40 00Lignite1,058 1,060 673 27 0Lignite184 179 117 4Gas1,129 1,183 1,195 1,031 560 130 Gas443 455 456 430 251 40Oil95 76 40 10 610 400 Oil69 57 25 3275 210 100Diesel9 7 4 2Diesel10 10 6Nuclear931 792 410 53Nuclear121 101 52Hydrogen0 0 6 25 48 57 Hydrogen0 0 110 11Renewables854 1,337 2,324 4,626 6,453 7,369 Renewables247 445 843 1,721 2,420 2,780Hydro666 725 784 816 818 819 Hydro187 201 217 224 224 224Wind79 355 878 1,826 2,382 2,500 Wind39 162 386 759 961 1,011of which wind offshore02 0 16 107 283 305 of which wind offshore02 0 6 35 90 98PV52 188 583 857 989 PV40 132 384 552 639Biomass82 92 112 143 176 195 Biomass15 16 20 26 34 40Geothermal24 59 138 347 511 550 Geothermal400 10 23 59 93 107Solar thermal10 43 156 696 1,334 1,857 Solar thermal13 46 218 467 651Ocean energy11 69 216 376 460 Ocean energy3 20 51 89 108Distribution losses351 386 412 442 457 446 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 41 205 538 1,194 1,601 1,758Own consumption electricity359 352 374 399 415 405 Share of fluctuating RES3.3% 14.5% 32.3% 53.3% 59.6% 62.1%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 232 910 1,923 2,616 RES share (domestic generation) 19.9% 31.4% 50.7% 76.8% 90.0% 98.1%Final energy consumption (electricity) 4,321 4,707 4,546 4,404 4,288 4,082Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 81 418 1,135 2,625 3,614 3,948Share of fluctuating RES1.6% 7.7% 20.4% 42.6% 51.0% 52.2%table 12.28: oecd north america: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 17.0% 24.5% 41.7% 75.1% 91.0% 97.5%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 45 465 1,144 1,831 2,495 PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Total108,449 110,746 101,837 85,423 76,814 73,029Fossil90,047 90,304 78,304 45,988 21,090 9,158table 12.25: oecd north america: heat supplyHard coal10,998 11,913 11,451 6,511 3,596 3,40520092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite10,337 10,102 6,237 237 0 0Natural gas27,790 27,045 24,548 17,593 8,889 2,559Crude oil40,923 41,245 36,068 21,647 8,604 3,1932015PJ/aCO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)13.4 12.80 176District heating85 356 993Fossil fuels79 101 242Biomass600 140 242Solar collectors53 264Geothermal63 245Heat from CHP463 1,024 1,555Fossil fuels423 849 1,109Biomass40 154 337Geothermal00 21 87Hydrogen0 22Direct heating 1)19,460 20,813 19,459Fossil fuels17,376 17,894 15,180Biomass2,006 2,326 2,126Solar collectors64 342 1,008Geothermal 2)14 251 895Hydrogen0 0 249Total heat supply 1)20,008 22,194 22,007Fossil fuels17,878 18,843 16,531Biomass2,052 2,620 2,705Solar collectors64 395 1,272Geothermal 1)14 335 1,227Hydrogen0 0 271RES share10.6% 15.1% 24.2%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 273 6601) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015 2020Condensation power plantsCoalLignite2,2478349542,2278559481,713762583Gas389 373 344Oil63 46 21Diesel7 6 3Combined heat & power production 171 166 188Coal44 42 37Lignite5 0 0Gas109 113 141Oil12 12 9CO2 emissions power generationLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)(incl. CHP public)Coal959499826,119121%56773119802,353487457.62,418878948486636,180122%5956961,9822,3295784842,393897table 12.26: oecd north america: co2 emissions1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public1,900799583485335,174102%5046151,7921,82443950410.31,1982,7543974011,0948632,3981,20169335415016,9048,7041,7423,2092,52672322,05610,3022,8374,3033,74287352.3%9052030596293222773116828013647643212241382,72454%3023621,1066892665415.03,5993,9173164961,6991,4072,85582290384328815,3173,3061,3655,0524,2781,31722,0904,4432,7646,7516,5271,60579.2%1,302204014020011821109001073249200225597719%1311493822001165711.75,3203,770175221,7871,4443,1793901,0131,43833914,9213177546,0876,1261,63721,8707242,2887,8749,0071,97696.5%2,2832050300220520051155005232044%27378726285950.36,052NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal10,1608,2422,399286784,89458507.6%0200973,97267,35228,61526,88372696145803.4%14,1023,840652251109721,5905,86801,5774015.9%24,63411,6721,980621683,1188,76264885511.9%6,1479.1%6,6216,02658598,62311,8192,6101,2789165,4791,4973910.7%5,298201576,76069,88928,71326,8427281,10835903.9%15,7454,4361,0875471711,4771,5095,8661811,69335020.1%25,43112,4733,057526162592,8528,27716294014317.6%8,74812.5%6,8715,8907662144,46419,0692,8223,1603,2275,6983,91424818.7%15,833202073,00966,35426,23724,0636901,27716167465.2%15,3674,4541,8571,1525441,4221,0394,9773751,43824826129.7%24,75012,0365,019987481582,5367,02963397849330.7%13,53920.4%6,6565,24374766657738,8582,9386,57312,1116,07510,38477845.5%34,438203062,79956,73718,30014,5345971,72496072048615.3%14,1234,2563,1942,1101,4965085033,4488501,16253475155.2%24,31411,7898,8482,5401,84701,3653,9612,3598101,49063.1%25,96345.8%6,0623,7066241,732055,7242,9458,57620,7136,11716,0201,35472.5%45,731table 12.29: oecd north america: final energy demand204053,62547,88511,3614,8655541,8552,4802,2561,60649.1%12,8223,9863,6262,5162,14002111,6841,1249011,0481,35278.5%23,70211,12410,1203,6303,10505971,3233,9386442,44585.4%35,89475.0%5,7402,4365112,792063,8712,9479,00126,5435,77517,9491,65687.5%52,342205049,87444,2109,5549345171,9893,1813,1012,93283.2%11,8623,7443,6492,3922,2900552241,4456111,7281,66495.6%22,79510,2379,9803,9113,7770982064,6422293,47196.9%41,39393.6%5,6642,0034233,23829912glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD NORTH AMERICA

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd north america: investment & employmenttable 12.30: oecd north america: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050Reference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyEnergy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy785,271374,83152,362137,475123,49436,2077,57917,65561368,3711,499,78551,732204,351597,942233,39541,554291,65279,160658,974366,52355,022134,497124,03825,6465,55019,9401,830162,2802,219,69039,674136,642646,938321,04755,224934,88485,281517,372431,11158,849134,397166,97730,2732,55435,9012,159136,6252,784,34848,043117,774850,543296,89950,5201,336,10784,463367,632426,30765,309123,197146,05019,6444,53865,0432,52715,1162,613,84239,706106,172674,808311,96449,5351,341,30590,3532011-20502,329,2491,598,772231,541529,565560,559111,77020,220138,5396,577682,3919,117,666179,155564,9392,770,2311,163,305196,8333,903,948339,2572011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR58,23139,9695,78913,23914,0142,7945063,46316417,060227,9424,47914,12369,25629,0834,92197,5998,48112table 12.31: oecd north america: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $Reference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumpsEnergy [R]evolution scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps2011-2020211,347165,9682,70538,3224,353927,61299,522218,819337,238272,0332021-2030234,915147,67019,47864,2223,5451,340,32611,60676,614752,325499,7812031-2040236,69970,88358,563101,2266,0262,091,63421,965553,689821,653694,3282041-2050183,25257,06339,36883,0833,7381,939,3636,971296,956782,241853,1952011-2050866,214441,584120,114286,85317,6636,298,936140,0641,146,0792,693,4562,319,3372011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR21,65511,0403,0037,171442157,4733,50228,65267,33657,983glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD NORTH AMERICAtable 12.32: oecd north america: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBSREFERENCE20102015 2020 2030By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs130642269534.41,377181761603752056254302.82.20.005190.31,377124652439867.41,425228755563862376446233.52.30.002100.61,425101602599789.51,408193736544242626652232.53.00.35150.71,4087340277982101,383171733534262827238131.53.20.49133.41,383ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 20304643322549344.11,987131740541,0622098430523824472695351,9875454072928510.52,095102665741,25520777324240307419190942,095503299355626-1,78234477791,1932067525014521137162121301,782300

latin america: scenario results data12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - LATIN AMERICA© NASA/JESSE ALLENimage SURROUNDED BY DARKER, DEEPER OCEAN WATERS, CORAL ATOLLS OFTEN GLOW IN VIBRANT HUES OF TURQUOISE, TEAL, PEACOCK BLUE, OR AQUAMARINE. BELIZE’SLIGHTHOUSE REEF ATOLL FITS THIS DESCRIPTION, WITH ITS SHALLOW WATERS COVERING LIGHT-COLORED CORAL: THE COMBINATION OF WATER AND PALE CORALS CREATESVARYING SHADES OF BLUE-GREEN. WITHIN THIS SMALL SEA OF LIGHT COLORS, HOWEVER, LIES A GIANT CIRCLE OF DEEP BLUE. ROUGHLY 300 METERS (1,000 FEET) ACROSSAND 125 METERS (400 FEET) DEEP, THE FEATURE IS KNOWN AS THE GREAT BLUE HOLE.301

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKlatin america: reference scenariotable 12.33: latin america: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy20091,0054520151,18024519999133338753100350020201,32843524589104243823162570020301,597495359568475495731416113020401,91955554248754631,05046625169020502,292102576439660731,1007483620130table 12.36: latin america: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy20092271142294352015271515828446202030571693136620303718196254781981111121020404519114223379218172172202050545171201193811228272253301421101621326692003000000000000142100100000000000015840210020020000021706141003003000003Combined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy1,00527845142110162107056692003230010001000000101,190349245208991333080975310033850020001901000201,348411435264891042089482316254470055005104000551,6525284954105684701,0769573141658113075006807000751,9947245556104875401,2161,0504662570169085007609000852,37799210258393966001,3251,100748368220130Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy22777114229430148142100510010%65%27297515928440171158402610072%63%308115717231360188170614710010009010001038114381105254702311981111192101500140100015466192911562337026621817217102201700150100017561255171216193802982282722512330Distribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)1643408071884409582085201,0872316501,3532598101,6372749601,986Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)103%61%226%61%347%57%529%53%12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - LATIN AMERICAFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.34: latin america: heat supplyPJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.table 12.35: latin america: co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)20.2%70%200900000000005,5653,4592,0891705,5653,4592,089170037.8%20091594667711000000159466782972168%2021153421591554682.1131.1%68%201500000440006,6304,2012,3992826,6334,2052,399282036.6%20151952169664840040200216101721,165202%2531384151951624992.3221.6%66%20201100014141007,1424,6462,4514237,1574,6602,452423034.9%20201983859257690090206385100631,274220%2821534361982055222.4472.8%65%20302200040373008,0575,3552,6237278,0995,3942,626727033.4%20302144151293552300230237415151391,449251%3331764962142305622.6713.6%61%20404400082748008,8125,8792,793126158,8985,9562,80112615033.1%20402834452003043100310314445231341,627281%3671915492832365892.81104.6%56%20508800015513619009,3876,2692,883209259,5506,4132,90220925032.8%20503978252832443400340431825317281,872324%3961986603972216033.1table 12.37: latin america: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal200922,04514,876664724,5399,6002306,9392,4087174,399108031.5%201526,35517,816960695,66711,1213578,1822,71035395,219180030.9%202028,15018,9301,249626,17211,4474628,7582,96258615,438239031.0%203032,40721,4461,305597,79512,28851710,4443,4461111556,398333032.1%table 12.38: latin america: final energy demand204036,45624,2421,273589,71013,20258911,6253,7801662977,011371031.8%2020 2030 20402009 2015839 999 1,080 1,225 1,351510 608 657 745 8226 7 8 9 1017,19015,8355,3814,59221720,65419,0406,6225,56828622,30620,5617,0075,83430725,92723,9498,2216,57444429,24527,0629,3007,201583562 754 851 1,183 1,48610 13 15 20 2970 90 10 13 180 0 010.6%5,82811.5%7,22112.3%7,92514.5%9,19516.2%10,3561,210 1,508 1,716 2,105 2,523850 1,024 1,139 1,371 1,53800 40 14 40 821 3 8282 393 507 538 4791,334 1,674 1,667 1,800 1,9551,348 1,549 1,815 2,229 2,5960 0 0 0 01,6550043.0%4,6262,0930043.2%5,1982,2060042.2%5,6292,4820041.9%6,5332,7210041.2%7,4061,686 1,930 2,184 2,746 3,3411,184 1,311 1,449 1,789 2,037004 005 009 00 0010 121,1734881,4125781,5596321,7747671,88687917 28 42 72 1261,259 1,243 1,202 1,158 1,1510 1 2 5 1153.2%5,53334.9%1,35549.7%6,46333.9%1,61447.9%6,90133.6%1,74546.3%8,07733.7%1,97844.9%9,09633.6%2,183205040,85028,0721,6845811,44114,89065512,1243,9602664567,062379029.6%205033,13930,80111,0008,6676921,5915028014.7%11,4043,0131,680155184952,0892,84702,8050039.5%8,3974,0852,27700141,9139632091,1931944.0%9,82031.9%2,3381,448880101) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public302

latin america: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.39: latin america: electricity generationtable 12.42: latin america: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030 2040Power plants1,005 1,156 1,263 1,683 2,275 2,639 Power plants227 275 326 475 691Coal45 15 14 60 00 00 Coal11 31 20 10 00Lignite4 2LigniteGas142 158 162 189 257 121 Gas42 46 46 50 67Oil110 103 41 18 11 110 Oil29 29 14 810 500Diesel16 10 6 20 10Diesel435 327 228Nuclear21 18 18NuclearBiomass32 48 51 92 137 175 Biomass15 23Hydro669 745 768 806 814 823 Hydro142 157 159 167 169Wind200300 35 130 354 580 745 Wind100100 16 49 130 202of which wind offshore08760 0 100 220 300 of which wind offshore06150 0 35 69PV45 105 221 354 PV33 74 152Geothermal6 12 19 22 Geothermal181 2 3Solar thermal power plants20 89 200 345 Solar thermal power plants21 44Ocean energy1 10 35 52 Ocean energy7 25Combined heat & power plants0 21 75 180 251 320 Combined heat & power production 0 4 13 32 43Coal0000000 00 00 00 00 00 Coal0000000 0020100 0050710 00 0060LigniteLigniteGas12 28 48 27 15 Gas10Oil0900 0 0 0 0 Oil0Biomass43 118 173 215 Biomass19 27Geothermal40 13 46 83 Geothermal30 91Hydrogen1 4 7 HydrogenCHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers0 3 10 35 48 60 Main activity producers0 1 2 6 8Autoproducers0 18 65 145 203 260 Autoproducers0 3 11 25 35Total generation1,005 1,177 1,338 1,863 2,526 2,959 Total generation227 279 338 507 734Fossil278 302 253 263 296 139 Fossil77 84 70 70 79Coal45 15 14 60 00 00 Coal11 31 20 10 00Lignite4 2LigniteGas142 170 190 237 284 137 Gas42 48 51 60 73Oil110 103 41 18 11 1107 Oil29 29 14 8100 5001Diesel16 10 6 201 104Diesel430 320 220Nuclear21 18 18 NuclearHydrogen0 0 0HydrogenRenewables705 858 1,067 1,599 2,226 2,814 Renewables148 193 266 436 654Hydro669 745 768 806 814 823 Hydro142 157 159 167 169Wind200 35 130 354 580 745 Wind1005100 16 49 130 202of which wind offshore08 0 100 220 300 of which wind offshore068150 0 35 69PV45 105 221 354 PV33 74 152Biomass32 57 93 210 310 390 Biomass15 33 50Geothermal300 760 11 25 65 105 Geothermal281 4 12Solar thermal20 89 200 345 Solar thermal21 44Ocean energy1 10 35 52 Ocean energy7 25Distribution losses164 190 201 228 254 296 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 1 22 83 210 379Own consumption electricity34 42 44 47 45 37 Share of fluctuating RES0% 8% 25% 42% 52%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 47 213 452 601 RES share (domestic generation) 65% 69% 79% 86% 89%Final energy consumption (electricity) 807 945 1,045 1,376 1,774 2,026Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 2 43 176 469 836 1,151Share of fluctuating RES0.2% 3.7% 13.2% 25.2% 33.1% 38.9%table 12.43: latin america: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 70% 73% 80% 86% 88% 95%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 18 81 214 374 605 PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040Total22,045 25,115 25,822 27,501 28,599Fossil14,876 16,090 14,551 11,705 7,813table 12.40: latin america: heat supplyHard coal664 787 897 959 95920092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite72 44 19 0 0Natural gas4,539 5,580 5,589 5,511 4,277Crude oil9,600 9,679 8,045 5,235 2,5772015PJ/a2.10District heating0 2Fossil fuels0 0Biomass0 2Solar collectors0 0Geothermal0 0Heat from CHP0 43Fossil fuels0 24Biomass0 19Geothermal0 00Hydrogen0Direct heating 1)5,565 6,373Fossil fuels3,459 3,666Biomass2,089 2,447Solar collectors17 163Geothermal 2)0 96Hydrogen0Total heat supply 1)5,565 6,418Fossil fuels3,459 3,690Biomass2,089 2,468Solar collectors17 163Geothermal 1)00 97Hydrogen0RES share37.8% 43%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 2161) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015Condensation power plants159 167Coal46 13Lignite5Gas67 76Oil71 66Diesel10 6Combined heat & power production 0 13Coal0 00Lignite0Gas0 13Oil0 0CO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)159 180Coal46 13Lignite5GasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversion6782972168%20211534215915590731,004174%220122371168123468table 12.41: latin america: co2 emissionsPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public4992.016190711251911431706,3473,0502,528460239716,6073,1402,6794612577152%55020201051226126429002901331228930880152%1951013651071125221.739416012221,0602666899865,9932,0222,4178374632547,0702,2893,11784056326167%1,029203085506811144004401295011112660114%1407426490935621.278823015531,8311731,214417285,3737282,3001,2587932957,2289013,5291,2621,21332287%1,6702040102009571190019012100114735862%4639132107355890.61,26819010542,3791101,474744504,782951,9661,4601,0092537,1802053,4511,4651,75730397%2,3692050460045111100110570056115527%12205846186030.31,718NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal2306,9392,4087174,399108031.5%0200917,19015,8355,3814,592217562107010.6%5,8281,210850002821,3341,34801,6550043.0%4,6261,6861,1840041,173488171,259053.2%5,53334.9%1,35583951061918,8352,6831262465,378401035.1%1,244201519,60918,0275,9794,9752597182820012.3%6,8501,4441,05325122741,1401,748822,04096047.9%5,1981,9301,406181031,207537811,3685456.2%6,94138.5%1,5829496013219111,0802,7634688036,245798442.9%2,359202020,29318,6366,2004,8662788771531222716.5%7,1251,5741,2561801222687211,6882502,1661918856.9%5,3112,0351,624684208925412101,35321264.8%8,51645.7%1,657845646166015,7962,9031,2752,0177,8831,6823657.4%4,923table 12.44: latin america: final energy demand203021,07119,1926,0003,4443101,16686574221634.9%7,5001,7671,517736583213621,4804412,03434131869.2%5,6932,3151,98729021005563823961,33242376.4%11,62960.6%1,879545770564020,7862,9322,0893,8588,2153,56512672.7%7,784204021,14319,1135,6001,5973221,0491,8461,62678660.1%7,5511,9331,7041,3281,27201236006711,84168736886.1%5,9622,5852,27843935201882415871,36655686.2%15,00578.5%2,03050787365020508580043000321702589324346937540030341619459124700460001863170258932436619693753859%95%205029,5064,43387302,3731,186025,0732,9622,6835,8458,0975,29918785.0%11,236205020,80718,8905,4005833069342,3222,2081,25580.3%7,3512,1021,9991,7291,7250481467901,43079031695.7%6,1392,8162,6785575530381146701,31762795.2%17,21591.1%1,91747986357530312glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - LATIN AMERICA

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKlatin america: investment & employmenttable 12.45: latin america: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050Reference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyEnergy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy74,917193,1939,791160,6848,6177,7066,3960027,494390,43243,834121,44967,99365,79719,11469,5112,73450,616222,43014,508176,38110,61710,9395,7534,232021,961540,58872,046105,031179,69459,37024,24583,43816,76468,713199,9529,890150,47613,79611,1406,3228,327023,491760,40583,88085,110205,060126,06468,927153,23638,12790,432207,14611,072149,31922,07815,1494,4765,05204,277891,985102,590115,939251,987138,28562,747194,52425,9132011-2050284,678822,72045,261636,86055,10844,93322,94817,611077,2242,583,410302,349427,530704,735389,516175,033500,70983,5382011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR7,11720,5681,13215,9211,3781,12357444001,93164,5857,55910,68817,6189,7384,37612,5182,08812table 12.46: latin america: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $Reference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumpsEnergy [R]evolution scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps2011-202094,60692,84101,122642231,844112,18140,83264,74014,0912021-203066,11462,94701,3841,78399,87613,78325,03445,40915,6502031-204046,13440,22302,7053,205242,32310,52986,304102,91542,5742041-205027,50519,22704,0184,260124,34408,22859,70756,4092011-2050234,359215,23909,2299,891698,387136,493160,398272,771128,7252011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR5,8595,381023124717,4603,4124,0106,8193,218glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - LATIN AMERICAtable 12.47: latin america: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBSREFERENCE20102015 2020 2030By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs1123516676784.71,16569414146684541847131.60.1-6.42.01,165963217881190.91,20886441116704631788121.20.0-7.50.21,2089837196816106.31,25291457869745319911231.00.1-8.80.31,2528734224830103.51,279102491967742521811131.33.0-5.00.61,279ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 203033114219880772.71,5514442231,082521135911664.7202.9109331,55138018524780153.01,6662439231,2475781491311085.9474.4166591,66630317533880921.01,6462233641,2846671411271419.1512091371,646304

oecd europe: scenario results data12© JEFF SCHMALTZ, MODIS RAPID RESPONSE TEAM, NASA/GSFCglossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD EUROPEimage CAPPED WITH SILVERY WHITE SNOW, THE ALPS ARC GRACEFULLY ACROSS NORTHERN ITALY, SWITZERLAND, AUSTRIA, AND SOUTHERN GERMANY AND FRANCE, 2006.305

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd europe: reference scenariotable 12.48: oecd europe: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energyDistribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)20092,81427534252947987466515135014900643149843113661204501933,4571,7814244268408398740802515135014127110021828502,96720153,153414305578317847895432843401221671147853352874204702013,8231,93156239091359784701,046543284340163132121429503,33020203,3604582706282068249957640922481482691149823461994204852064,0511,97760735297439682401,2505764092248192168221629803,55420303,7595692507621657271216065688593201587321457837611121205152174,4912,2117133281,13826572701,55460656885932422115822531103,97420404,0054952408811446711516267061451402420317731387641111135205452284,7782,2706333161,29225467101,83762670614514028726203122931604,25420504,1563822319821036351836478042101852927377981287643510148205602384,9542,2565093071,41720363502,06364780421018533231273723632604,414table 12.51: oecd europe: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energyFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)2009730794812938413611193760142001654112772510001115489545211960206634136030619376014212009010.1%34.2%20158721114115332312814201147138210175361289261200112621,0465031475324257312804152011471382621018617.7%39.7%20209521173617826312115210195745220177361198181400117601,1295231534727644312104862101957453032024121.3%43.0%20301,06511432212182105192202562679342172301010491900116561,23753114442316262105060222025626793734233727.2%48.6%20401,1589630243162942322729540115459176281010892100119561,33454112440351252940699227295401154345941931.4%52.4%20501,22678292711218926234313551525611174271010782300119551,400541105383771918907702343135515249561147634.0%55.0%12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD EUROPEFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.49: oecd europe: heat supplyPJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.table 12.50: oecd europe: co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)1494.3%23.2%2009557418135031,6941,39628810017,10414,8781,9896417319,35516,6932,41364186013.8%20091,005274456228406438154105147321,442428561375793,77897%4857659571,3572145556.83258.5%27.4%2015689517169031,8311,53628014020,15717,1992,60714021122,67619,2513,057140229015.1%20151,08039140625127538414577143201,465536483394513,881100%5308069651,3911885706.845811.3%30.8%2020772579190041,9261,58732415021,00217,7782,77820424323,70019,9443,291204261015.8%20201,06941336027518434212062148121,412533422422343,874100%5348249651,3482035796.767014.9%34.6%2030827620203042,1871,80136916021,93417,9923,29333231724,94720,4143,865332336018.2%20301,0784802443371333391106515771,417591309494233,905101%5058409501,3602515936.687718.4%38.4%2040854641210042,5082,07741417022,46517,7203,83245945425,82720,4374,456459475020.9%20409933852233701233561146616971,349500289540213,77197%4618369581,2912255996.31,02620.7%41.6%2050840630206042,7952,33344417022,81117,4224,25658654726,44620,3864,907586568022.9%2050880284205381823611046918161,241388274562173,62193%4358289611,1842136006.0table 12.52: oecd europe: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal200974,70756,8447,6665,46818,24925,4629,5368,3271,8544851155,382490210.8%200951,37446,88114,10713,260894972606004.0%11,4753,936913639629641,5943,41109291016.6%21,3006,4841,5041,3031257973,6797,300641,55711615.8%5,82812.4%4,4933,98446247201579,25559,2739,0294,81320,02525,4059,23810,7441,9551,0233006,833629413.2%201555,54251,01314,70013,3541259163058306.8%13,3084,6381,2697051311,2751,5523,96321,1722019.3%23,0057,0471,9271,4692658343,6827,9661381,72514318.3%7,77415.2%4,5293,98549846202080,53959,4149,0344,28521,18524,9108,99012,1362,0731,4714497,401737514.6%202057,44852,86914,83313,3551311,00534210607.5%13,7304,8421,4947211431,4701,4314,03931,2222020.8%24,3067,6092,3471,6072987683,6458,4442011,86616720.1%8,85216.7%4,5794,02950446203082,16259,7459,3003,29123,35123,8027,92714,4892,1822,0468028,4979333017.1%table 12.53: oecd europe: final energy demand203060,03155,49614,83513,1081751,14041114208.6%13,9975,1371,7777311431,3521,2584,08151,4303024.0%26,6648,7593,0301,8703306623,4529,1423272,22922423.0%10,78019.4%4,5353,99049946204082,36458,6717,8523,09024,69423,0347,32116,3722,2552,5421,1439,33298611319.3%204061,86057,41215,13813,1952221,23049118909.4%13,9545,3022,0387601451,0521,0414,06181,7273028.1%28,3209,5213,6602,1403625693,1829,5964512,53233025.9%12,67422.1%4,4483,91448945205081,16956,8896,4662,95225,30822,1636,92917,3512,3292,8941,4959,4931,00613420.7%205062,88558,60415,28713,2412271,24257624009.7%14,1365,4082,2528111499288684,041112,0653031.7%29,1819,9064,1252,3243605722,9009,8335752,66440727.9%14,09324.0%4,2813,767471431) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public306

oecd europe: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.54: oecd europe: electricity generationtable 12.57: oecd europe: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030 2040Power plants2,814 2,980 2,946 3,040 3,430 3,515 Power plants730 872 1,019 1,169 1,411Coal275 267 227 96 44 00 Coal79 69 65 27 13Lignite342 306 163 25 0Lignite48 42 22 3 0Gas529 534 537 477 248 49 Gas129 138 145 144 75Oil47 97 55 23 010 000 Oil38 12 72 21 0006Diesel9Diesel4 3Nuclear874 755 460 78Nuclear136 114 68 11Biomass66 71 71 55 41 21 Biomass11 11 11 8Hydro515 543 566 591 602 605 Hydro193 201 207 215 218Wind135 370 609 1,045 1,356 1,485 Wind76 183 276 414 496of which wind offshore0 43 122 484 682 755 of which wind offshore0 13 38 147 189PV14 97 210 319 597 632 PV14 94 197 270 489Geothermal900 13 37 144 166 172 Geothermal200 220 6 23 26Solar thermal power plants71 46 143 265 411 Solar thermal power plants12 32 55Ocean energy10 63 110 140 Ocean energy3 18 31Combined heat & power plants 643 699 765 810 790 710 Combined heat & power production 165 181 184 174 146Coal149 148 91 51 00 00 Coal41 36 22 11 00Lignite84 34 21 3Lignite12 5 3 0Gas311 349 388 379 251 101 Gas77 92 108 104 61Oil36 29 14 0 0 0 Oil25 26 13 0 0Biomass61 135 240 337 429 435 Biomass10 21 37 52 66Geothermal20 40 11 39 108 149 Geothermal00 10 20 70 19Hydrogen0 0 2 25 Hydrogen0CHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers450 485 520 540 515 460 Main activity producers111 116 118 113 95Autoproducers193 214 245 270 275 250 Autoproducers54 65 66 62 51Total generation3,457 3,679 3,711 3,850 4,220 4,225 Total generation895 1,053 1,204 1,343 1,556Fossil1,781 1,683 1,451 1,036 544 149 Fossil452 423 386 294 149Coal424 415 318 147 44 00 Coal119 106 87 38 13Lignite426 340 184 28 0Lignite60 46 25 4 0Gas840 883 925 856 499 149 Gas206 230 253 249 136Oil83 38 19 23 0102 000 Oil63 38 20 21 0000Diesel9 7 5Diesel4 3 2Nuclear874 755 460 78 Nuclear136 114 68 11Hydrogen0 0 0 025 Hydrogen0 0 0 0Renewables802 1,241 1,800 2,736 3,674 4,051 Renewables306 516 750 1,038 1,407Hydro515 543 566 591 602 605 Hydro193 201 207 215 218Wind135 370 609 1,045 1,356 1,485 Wind76 183 276 414 496of which wind offshore0 43 122 484 682 755 of which wind offshore0 13 38 147 189PV14 97 210 319 597 632 PV14 94 197 270 489Biomass127 206 312 392 470 456 Biomass21 32 48 60 72Geothermal11 17 48 183 274 322 Geothermal200 320 8 30 45Solar thermal00 71 46 143 265 411 Solar thermal12 32 55Ocean energy10 63 110 140 Ocean energy3 18 31Distribution losses218 216 212 208 203 201 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 90 277 476 702 1,017Own consumption electricity285 274 259 217 173 134 Share of fluctuating RES10.1% 26.4% 39.5% 52.2% 65.3%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 14 158 567 817 RES share (domestic generation) 34.2% 49.0% 62.3% 77.3% 90.4%Final energy consumption (electricity) 2,967 3,209 3,272 3,441 3,589 3,470Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 149 468 829 1,427 2,063 2,257Share of fluctuating RES4.3% 12.7% 22.3% 37.1% 48.9% 53.4%table 12.58: oecd europe: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 23.2% 33.7% 48.5% 71.1% 87.1% 95.9%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 128 304 742 1,175 1,563 PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040Total74,707 75,318 68,826 60,441 52,248Fossil56,844 55,245 46,467 31,929 16,669table 12.55: oecd europe: heat supplyHard coal7,666 7,243 5,026 2,424 1,32220092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite5,468 4,167 2,281 252 0Natural gas18,249 19,853 20,258 16,709 9,455Crude oil25,462 23,982 18,903 12,545 5,8912015PJ/a6.80District heating557 763 1,479Fossil fuels418 534 713Biomass135 191 500Solar collectors03 23 178Geothermal15 89Heat from CHP1,694 2,526 2,855Fossil fuels1,396 1,925 1,822Biomass288 562 938Geothermal10 39 95Hydrogen0 0 0Direct heating 1)17,104 18,875 17,304Fossil fuels14,878 15,461 12,635Biomass1,989 2,712 2,731Solar collectors64 296 777Geothermal 2)173 405 1,161Hydrogen0 0 0Total heat supply 1)19,355 22,164 21,639Fossil fuels16,693 17,919 15,170Biomass2,413 3,466 4,170Solar collectors64 319 954Geothermal 1)186 460 1,345Hydrogen0 0 0RES share13.8% 19.2% 29.9%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 512 2,0621) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015 2020Condensation power plantsCoal1,005274904251664205Lignite456 408 217Gas228 232 235Oil40 85 43Diesel6Combined heat & power productionCoal43815440114632074Lignite105 31 16Gas147 204 222Oil32 20 9CO2 emissions power generationLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversion(incl. CHP public)Coal561375793,77897%4857659571,3572141,442428439436333,53991%5107429261,1781841,305397233457162,81472%425568795861166984278555table 12.56: oecd europe: co2 emissionsPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public5706.23425794.91,0612,0876575745323242,9651,5311,084350115,2858,4062,6072,1652,107020,33810,5944,2652,6972,781147.9%4,609203032081242111223739219605571202740741,74445%2923545154641195932.92,1612,7432635761,2896153,1838561,352969613,0554,3112,1333,1523,4283118,9815,4304,0614,4415,0123771.4%6,846204013935010401115001150255350220176520%158186178195475991.33,0063,1351255331,8186583,0853511,3041,3359411,3068491,7433,8564,74811017,5251,3263,5805,6756,74120492.4%8,921205019001900430043062006201925%38544541156000.33,429NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal9,5368,3271,8544851155,382490210.8%0200951,37446,88114,10713,260894972606004.0%11,4753,936913639629641,5943,41109291016.6%21,3006,4841,5041,3031257973,6797,300641,55711615.8%5,82812.4%4,4933,984462478,23811,8361,9551,3327316,853959415.2%3,828201553,59449,07213,88812,82010863032911105.3%12,9814,4781,5101,4123568541,3993,622701,06680023.7%22,2036,7472,2751,5634687253,4327,3192261,94824323.2%8,98418.3%4,5223,8985071175,01917,3402,0372,1932,1248,1052,8443625.3%12,159202050,61746,22112,19610,993112633424206347.0%12,7664,5112,1881,7507275227183,6432411,079303035.5%21,2596,8453,3202,1551,0363881,8856,8445361,95665135.3%12,89227.9%4,3963,68051520285127,6612,1283,7635,1338,0048,40722746.1%21,743table 12.59: oecd europe: final energy demand203045,37341,2449,2897,0941295021,16282640217.4%12,0714,4503,1621,9211,0911122883,0805441,096579053.6%19,8846,7744,8142,6701,64101,1644,6861,6211,8011,16855.5%19,13146.4%4,1293,203533392035,5802,1674,8828,9767,68011,47939668.5%29,732204040,17636,2146,7922,3821465002,3162,0161,44855.6%11,1304,2623,7112,2361,817421041,6419438201,0483375.2%18,2926,3315,5123,2232,75504022,7092,2091,5501,86876.0%26,03871.9%3,9612,77655163420501,44600400003219516199518278240127002906626582441,57370007000051,498219516199518705382401,07468.3%95.2%205046,3167,09187403,1763,042039,2242,1775,34711,6496,58212,96550485.0%34,284205036,22632,4825,8155191524982,6552,5451,99185.2%10,3934,0253,8592,4632,2770283211,3277661,34811593.2%16,2755,6635,4303,3163,1100578252,5291,1712,71391.9%29,59291.1%3,7442,39959674930712glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD EUROPE

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd europe: investment & employmenttable 12.60: oecd europe: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050Reference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyEnergy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy483,686517,27062,643157,019212,64253,95613,31416,2521,444174,6721,302,801159,750144,375443,353381,81274,34888,36610,795371,581510,48466,304145,445192,47277,79811,24811,5985,619102,5731,187,74989,145138,925476,027134,810182,393124,68041,770317,913507,41444,875140,893220,92367,2809,6979,36914,37796,4631,503,680149,851127,954471,695452,095133,984139,78328,318211,739415,20939,159129,413143,63973,9427,09516,9265,0346,0001,027,22152,745104,651348,294106,126144,736237,21633,4522011-20501,384,9191,950,377212,981572,770769,676272,97641,35454,14526,475379,7095,021,450451,492515,9041,739,3691,074,843535,461590,046114,3352011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR34,62348,7595,32514,31919,2426,8241,0341,3546629,493125,53611,28712,89843,48426,87113,38714,7512,85812table 12.61: oecd europe: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $Reference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumpsEnergy [R]evolution scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps2011-2020350,297233,6951,81260,34054,451854,958266,389112,524285,141190,9042021-2030329,064218,88511455,95754,108785,74437,13341,099511,565195,9482031-2040266,312123,46566277,39864,7871,232,2606,511307,864615,092302,7942041-2050217,12198,8124167,41750,8501,022,7611,103132,572536,262352,8232011-20501,162,794674,8572,630261,111224,1963,895,723311,137594,0581,948,0601,042,4682011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR29,07016,871666,5285,60597,3937,77814,85148,70126,062glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD EUROPEtable 12.62: oecd europe: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBS20102015By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs161158222717-1,2583872645555224165140692.02.60.3292.71,258114103239708-1,1643262615851926474115311.55.90.3243.51,164REFERENCE2020 20309772254662-1,085269241605162767390461.24.81.1213.21,0858344253642-1,022211286624632717860300.93.13.7123.71,022ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 2030415421262696-1,794278272661,1773126928334913414.783231,794370330293629-1,623177265841,09733171232157194510152781,623391263289498-1,44291226911,0343177816020614426156561,442308

africa: scenario results data12© JACQUES DESCLOITRES, MODIS RAPID RESPONSE TEAM, NASA/GSFCglossary & appendix | APPENDIX - AFRICAimage THREE REGIONS OF SEASONAL FLOODING ARE SHOWN. THE NORTH-SOUTH-RUNNING ZAMBEZI RIVER RUNS THROUGH ZAMBIA BEFORE CURVING EAST IN NAMIBIA.THE OKAVANGO RIVER DELTA, WHICH RESEMBLES THE TANGLED ROOTS OF A PLANT. THE DARK WATER SPREADING BEYOND THE GREEN BANKS OF THE RIVER SUGGESTSTHAT THE OKAVANGO DELTA MAY ALSO BE FLOODED.309

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKafrica: reference scenariotable 12.63: africa: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy200963025001866811131201576928202576113136202020301,2734800417311632302062132885020401,813720054722183758283355671510020502,6161,22406771420428636150710023200table 12.66: africa: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy2009142410472162020151794806321621202021558077217222030280720991384553912040380105012299510731512050529178015161061493212334982001000000000000122605300110000000191333803165614131014210194103201000003251000000000000000313030000000000000375041101000000001111404201000004223807402000007Combined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducers1610050000016291908010002942290110200042Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducers1409603000009Total generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy63051525001866811130102982001100770614283025761131301421226056300916727340031756141301761421019104101,2899604900422321632029820621328308501,8421,336739055623183704702833556759151002,6581,9751,253068914204206423615071008723200Total generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy14211441047216202625100000011%18%17913948064216203931303100063%22%21616559078217204937504211094%23%284196740100148408453911151403872511080124109501317315122103805383531840154610601799321233154140Distribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)76450518895306311016007611217201,1031609501,59523013602,302Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)207%29%3710%34%5410%33%12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - AFRICAFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.64: africa: heat supplyPJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.table 12.65: africa: co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)20.3%16%2009000000000011,6372,4879,1483011,6372,4879,14830078.6%20094072510955380000040725109561928170%107117233407639990.9121.6%19%2015000004400012,5332,8759,6536012,5372,8789,65360077.0%20154542770121489110004562780122561,058194%132132276454641,1450.9192.1%19%202000000131300013,2483,07010,1698013,2613,08310,16980076.8%20205173250139449320105203270141531,165214%138146293517711,2780.9493.8%23%203000000595720015,5243,94811,51557415,5834,00511,517574074.3%2030557352017025101280305693600174351,350248%176192348557771,5620.91025.5%26%204000000858230018,0374,72513,193111918,1234,80713,1961119073.5%20408906260235171219140409096400240291,834336%213228411890921,8701.01515.7%24%20500000012912450020,8385,76614,8941661220,9675,89014,90016612071.9%20501,2569640268111324190501,2799830273242,383437%2592854841,2561002,1921.1table 12.67: africa: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal200927,55314,2254,41303,4526,35914013,1893536312,77849047.6%200920,86420,1433,3013,23052019300.1%3,5188231330032051569601,1630036.8%13,3241,02216600323974257310,745081.9%12,21260.6%72039627747201529,72415,3864,14204,0577,18714014,198439232513,61694047.6%201523,04122,2813,9053,82454423400.2%4,1279751804053855969201,3590037.3%14,2501,275236003311,140274611,224080.5%13,01358.4%76041829250202032,09616,8804,76104,4797,64114515,070510385014,341133046.7%table 12.68: africa: final energy demand202024,74623,9144,1494,06055826500.3%4,4521,11921513055959268801,4810038.1%15,3131,593306003461,301288811,778079.0%13,80157.7%83245832054203037,56719,6435,63905,7148,29034617,5787417520316,307252046.5%203029,85428,9184,9914,6233271328600.4%5,5371,56436159273162487801,6820036.9%18,3902,378549005021,4906095713,350375.9%16,02455.4%93751536061204046,71425,8189,05407,6639,10140020,4961,02112844118,536371043.6%204035,86034,8445,9475,31157118451200.5%6,8562,1655528538916441,13201,9380036.4%22,0413,533901006521,59186811115,280673.9%18,82154.0%1,01755939166205056,33032,22813,49308,69710,03745323,6491,30018170721,043419041.8%205043,09542,0197,0446,28165422882100.6%8,4862,97971912951,2255831,38302,1880034.3%26,4885,2201,260001,0251,6941,12716617,248970.5%21,63851.5%1,077592414701) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public310

africa: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.69: africa: electricity generationtable 12.72: africa: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030Power plants630 756 893 1,250 1,930 2,763 Power plants142 180 226 340Coal250 257 250 189 129 35 Coal41 43 43 28Lignite0 0 0 0 0 0 Lignite0 0 0 0Gas186 256 288 246 177 82 Gas47 63 68 58Oil68 52 43 21 7409 0306 Oil21 18 16 9202Diesel11 7 58 40Diesel620 321 212Nuclear13 13 NuclearBiomass1 5 10 10BiomassHydro98 128 150 175 190 195 Hydro25 33 39 45Wind200100 26 54 224 362 613 Wind100000 13 25 89of which wind offshore06410 3 85 184 283 of which wind offshore03110 1 25PV29 125 272 473 PV12 49Geothermal17 66 125 208 Geothermal3 11Solar thermal power plants32 167 606 1,047 Solar thermal power plants13 42Ocean energy7 24 51 102 Ocean energy2 6Combined heat & power plants0 4 20 98 145 170 Combined heat & power production 0 1 5 22Coal0000000 2010100 5060900 12 23 20 Coal0000000 1000000 1020200 20Lignite0 0 0 LigniteGas44 65 77 Gas12Oil0 0 0 Oil0710Biomass37 44 51 BiomassGeothermal40 12 17 GeothermalHydrogen1 5 HydrogenCHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers0 0 0 0 0 0 Main activity producers0 0 0 0Autoproducers0 4 20 98 145 170 Autoproducers0 1 5 22Total generation630 760 913 1,348 2,075 2,933 Total generation142 182 231 362Fossil515 576 597 516 404 216 Fossil114 129 133 112Coal250 260 255 201 152 55 Coal41 44 44 31Lignite0 0 0 0 0 0 Lignite0 0 0 0Gas186 257 294 290 242 158 Gas47 64 69 70Oil68 52 43 21 7401 0305 Oil21 18 17 9200Diesel11 7 580 400Diesel620 320 210Nuclear13 13 NuclearHydrogen0 0HydrogenRenewables102 171 308 832 1,670 2,712 Renewables26 51 97 250Hydro98 128 150 175 190 195 Hydro25 33 39 45Wind2001100 26 54 224 362 613 Wind1000000 13 25 89of which wind offshore066410 3 85 184 283 of which wind offshore031110 1 25PV29 125 272 473 PV12 49Biomass19 47 52 57 Biomass43 8Geothermal17 70 137 225 Geothermal12Solar thermal32 167 606 1,047 Solar thermal13 42Ocean energy7 24 51 102 Ocean energy2 6Distribution losses76 89 98 122 161 223 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 1 16 39 143Own consumption electricity45 53 58 61 73 83 Share of fluctuating RES1% 9% 17% 40%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 2 6 37 163 332 RES share (domestic generation) 18% 28% 42% 69%Final energy consumption (electricity) 518 620 726 1,019 1,469 2,039Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 2 33 90 373 685 1,188Share of fluctuating RES0.3% 4.3% 9.9% 27.7% 33.0% 40.5%table 12.73: africa: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 16% 22.5% 33.7% 61.7% 80.5% 92.4%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 12 42 125 265 493 PJ/a2009 20152030Total27,553 28,864 30,371 33,642Fossil14,225 14,465 14,787 12,458table 12.70: africa: heat supplyHard coal4,413 3,840 3,756 2,45420092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite0 0 0 0Natural gas3,452 4,390 4,982 4,667Crude oil6,359 6,235 6,049 5,3372015PJ/a0.90District heating0 0 0Fossil fuels0 0 0Biomass0 0 0Solar collectors0 0 0Geothermal0 0 0Heat from CHP0 15 75Fossil fuels0 12 40Biomass0 200 35Geothermal010Hydrogen0Direct heating 1)11,637 12,463 12,405Fossil fuels2,487 2,825 2,614Biomass9,148 9,321 8,963Solar collectors300 315 791Geothermal 2)20 36Hydrogen0Total heat supply 1)11,637 12,478 12,480Fossil fuels2,487 2,837 2,653Biomass9,148 9,323 8,999Solar collectors300 315 791Geothermal 1)20 37Hydrogen0RES share78.6% 77% 79%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 59 7811) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015 2020Condensation power plants407 418 404Coal251 252 240Lignite0 0 0Gas95 121 127Oil53 40 33Diesel8 5 3Combined heat & power production 0 4 11Coal0000 3010 5060LigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generationLignite0 0 0(incl. CHP public)Coal407251422255415245GasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversion9561928170%1071172334076312245980180%1251302434186413337983180%12111627540466999table 12.71: africa: co2 emissionsPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public1,1450.9781,2780.81820000034919512726013,3701,9478,7912,143490013,7192,1428,9182,143517084%1,8642030258139010016341100300298149013119790145%11785277258531,5620.55600000053829314694514,3901,3398,5523,3061,1801314,9271,6318,6983,3061,2741889%3,1962040195112076525017033024612901107621114%11250234195311,8700.31,213000006242981571531615,5237717,7365,0041,81919316,1461,0697,8935,0041,97220893%4,82120506228032024413031010641063238170%723619662152,1920.22,002NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal14013,1893536312,77849047.6%0200920,86420,1433,3013,23052019300.1%3,5188231330032051569601,1630036.8%13,3241,02216600323974257310,745081.9%12,21260.6%7203962774720208715,4975401941,18412,9096452551.0%939 1,94214014,2594619534513,224132149.5%table 12.74: africa: final energy demand201522,37821,6183,4443,36254124640.2%3,924932210152415500810251,2252037.3%14,2501,2752870038393643129010,935080.8%12,98460.1%76041029257202023,16622,3333,9523,80756235117151.1%4,0281,0233457536413336832731,24233042.9%14,3541,5385190037556870171910,454081.5%13,46660.3%83244132071021,1846308074,09612,8932,6728662.8%4,522203025,48224,5464,2513,8217585176108955.9%4,5441,3088073491542001638253211,235142058.5%15,7512,1841,348002702707191,82210,25123486.7%16,56567.5%93747836099204047629042320149125519021101133250170820032508973305932004104912551909231011322845%81%204038,71910,1932,08703,9324,174028,5266841,3039,73912,3354,28118473.4%8,982204027,81026,7934,3693,18910912654043540520.3%5,1111,6561,333538244128777885581,0552961668.4%17,3133,0862,48300197544982,74810,12360692.2%20,34675.9%1,017498391127205067210033010150200721553516126397019093103971070170520101639502007215510381612638054%90%205043,2706,92392102,6043,398036,3477022,20716,12811,2465,69736783.8%14,191205030,44529,3694,4412,63712613089782965135.1%5,7612,0861,92962432419254481,00778753922783.2%19,1674,3364,0090075284873,9979,34090495.2%24,60583.8%1,07750641415631112glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - AFRICA

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKafrica: investment & employmenttable 12.75: africa: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-20502011-20502011-2050AVERAGEPER YEARReference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy74,87481,8126,44150,3746,5257,7735,0815,618081,368124,1399,70271,7228,30410,8665,64217,9030105,498170,52218,09388,06213,41016,5308,96625,4600157,832201,47620,60996,31814,40618,9118,91342,3200419,572577,95054,846306,47642,64554,08028,60291,300010,48914,4491,3717,6621,0661,3527152,2830Energy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy47,875264,71613,93957,82638,14024,12727,74496,1126,82717,250499,99720,92135,277132,88153,48467,630178,02011,78535,591633,73613,98128,109119,10458,73071,520328,01714,27517,737958,16121,70624,397236,401106,67299,271439,78429,930118,4522,356,61170,547145,608526,526243,013266,1661,041,93362,8182,96158,9151,7643,64013,1636,0756,65426,0481,570table 12.76: africa: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $2011-20202021-20302031-20402041-20502011-20502011-2050AVERAGEPER YEARReference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps326,234326,04401890324,557321,62201,4691,466152,238149,10901,7291,400174,308169,06703,0222,219977,336965,84106,4105,08524,43324,1460160127Energy [R]evolution scenario12RenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps200,348157,5445,76534,8412,197231,01719,62414,17674,251122,967296,638013,78995,646187,202441,778042,064162,356237,3581,169,781177,16875,794367,094549,72529,2454,4291,8959,17713,743glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - AFRICAtable 12.77: africa: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBS20102015By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs10046422,123397.82,70910672311,8801,807368231.5--4.0-2,70911059562,096484.92,80614383791,8161,749378121.54.9-3.1-2,806REFERENCE2020 203014251732,217530.83,014134901171,9621,8535811261.79.7-2.6-3,014164781082,336466.43,15318188872,0771,9258015252.714.6-131.63,153ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 2030514149632,091645.03,461761,07612,3091,6804149811379103550.63,4616141861142,048704.53,667651,18732,4121,622231001251394114177.73,6675952412192,049374.33,4785388152,5391,606171365920180103951153,478312

middle east: scenario results data12© SEAWIFS PROJECT, NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER, AND ORBIMAGEglossary & appendix | APPENDIX - MIDDLE EASTimage VIEW OVER THE MIDDLE EAST, 1999313

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmiddle east: reference scenariotable 12.78: middle east: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy200974310428276250013201594940599286157220201,138407632891018320301,569401,14127854175015414014020401,985501,589239412105227620027020502,497702,0632383141359378300330table 12.81: middle east: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy200919810126605006201528910197714102020325102167832120303801025871161204046210344601222510220505791044760122281430.20000000000000003230101030012000033860403070033100070.1000000000000000131000101000000001182020101000100001245180303001100003110405003200005160606003210006Combined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducers151085200015251013930002530101510400030Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy74373010428276250013130.2000000952905405992871570393230120101,1451,0724076629210180553860440301,5841,441501,14928354101015015414901402,0101,859601602248412013952276201302702,5272,337802,07824831401765937830170330Total generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy1981921012660500660.100000000.0%3.1%29027420197724101513100001010.5%5.2%32729910217793202518202101051.4%7.6%3833341025972160432451810304664101034662120542510211204058551310450621207028143163060Distribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)112550599101860768115109092514615601,28914618001,69316021202,165Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)133.5%11.3%214.6%11.7%315.2%11.9%12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - MIDDLE EASTFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.79: middle east: heat supplyPJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.table 12.80: middle east: co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)00.0%1.8%200900000000005,8345,80720515,8345,807205100.52009492102462252000000492102462451,510271%2661773344922412037.430.4%4.1%201500000000006,6456,564265226,6456,5642652201.22015536402872331220001538502882461,778319%3201974575362682297.8100.9%4.8%202000000000007,3047,208326237,3047,2083262301.3202059040346232840022594403472421,992358%3562135195903152508.0291.8%6.4%203000000000008,3388,192489078,3388,1924890701.7203071640496213481034724404992202,452440%4082387237163672898.5472.3%6.9%204000000000009,3589,16169113149,3589,161691131402.12040864506821743131056876606871842,779499%4572658018643933268.5672.7%7.0%2050000000000010,36510,098771513910,36510,098771513902.620501,0016083216121510781,016708381703,081553%5042918761,0014093588.6table 12.82: middle east: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal200924,51624,432134011,83612,463084471530100.4%201529,55429,223106013,87815,23982249114105965200.9%202033,37732,840109016,27016,461196342137218993201.0%203041,07540,027112020,52719,38944959917952192170501.5%table 12.83: middle east: final energy demand204046,08945,151119024,69720,335131806187972822291101.8%205050,52749,348116027,51221,7201531,0262121333782732902.1%2020 2030 2040 20502009 20151,649 1,780 1,983 2,298 2,542 2,6601,014 1,573 1,753 2,032 2,247 2,3510 0 0 0 0 016,47513,8124,67620,68117,3286,39523,32919,5947,26429,39325,06310,11633,65528,86511,22237,87432,86212,2934,539 6,226 7,078 9,874 10,923 11,941136 168 185 240 296 3340100 0100 0100 0100 2100 171000.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%4,595 5,553 6,220 7,289 8,312 9,368437 562 681 951 1,260 1,622800 23 33 61 87 11300 00 00 00 00513 19 22 28 221,748 2,029 2,221 2,375 2,594 2,9832,388 2,932 3,283 3,922 4,422 4,7440900 0 0 0 0 011 12 13 14 1400 00 00 00 000.4%4,5410.6%5,3800.7%6,1091.0%7,6571.2%9,3311.4%11,2021,720 2,201 2,648 3,689 4,835 6,17331 89 128 236 334 430000 000 000 000 000 0001,106 1,243 1,296 1,304 1,291 1,2911,693 1,860 2,074 2,522 3,012 3,4795 52 61 90 113 15116 22 28 47 70 781 1 2 5 10 291.2%700.5%2,6633.1%1991.1%3,3533.6%2651.4%3,7364.9%4531.8%4,3305.7%6312.2%4,7896.1%8322.5%5,0121) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public314

middle east: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.84: middle east: electricity generationtable 12.87: middle east: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030 2040Power plants743 945 1,166 1,824 2,582 3,179 Power plants198 298 358 567 853Coal10 10 10 00 00 00 Coal10 00 00 00 00LigniteLigniteGas428 581 730 679 353 55 Gas126 191 197 153 118Oil276 255 118 15 230 110 Oil60 64 30 4102 1103Diesel25 14 10 43Diesel5006 400 301Nuclear00 31 35NuclearBiomass14 15 18 BiomassHydro13 32 38 50 52 59 Hydro13 18 24 25Wind0.2 26 78 280 480 755 Wind0.1 10 31 106 181of which wind offshore00000 0 0 70 160 280 of which wind offshore00000 0 0 25 57PV20 83 290 619 863 PV11 47 162 340Geothermal0 8 15 67 72 Geothermal040 1 3 11Solar thermal power plants12 85 460 948 1,294 Solar thermal power plants25 102 146Ocean energy0 6 14 43 61 Ocean energy4 9 29Combined heat & power plants0 7 15 30 55 85 Combined heat & power production 0 1 3 5 10Coal0000000 0011410 0031730 0051 0070 00 Coal0000000 0000100 0000110 0010220 0010341LigniteLigniteGas11 GasOil0 OilBiomass14 23 27 BiomassGeothermal91 22 38 GeothermalHydrogen3 9 HydrogenCHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers0 0 0 0 0 0 Main activity producers0 0 0 0 0Autoproducers0 7 15 30 55 85 Autoproducers0 1 3 5 10Total generation743 952 1,181 1,854 2,637 3,264 Total generation198 299 361 572 863Fossil730 853 864 704 365 69 Fossil192 259 231 160 121Coal10 10 10 00 00 00 Coal10 00 00 00 00LigniteLigniteGas428 582 733 684 361 67 Gas126 191 198 154 119Oil276 256 120 16 2303 1109 Oil60 64 30 4100 1101Diesel25 14 10 431Diesel50066 400 300Nuclear00 30 30NuclearHydrogenHydrogenRenewables13 96 313 1,146 2,269 3,187 Renewables39 130 412 742Hydro13 32 38 50 52 59 Hydro13 18 24 25Wind0.2 26 78 280 480 755 Wind0.1 10 31 106 181of which wind offshore000000 0 0 70 160 280 of which wind offshore000000 0 0 25 57PV20 83 290 619 863 PV11 47 162 340Biomass51 12 28 38 45 Biomass1040 22 44 6Geothermal11 24 89 111 Geothermal16Solar thermal12 85 460 948 1,294 Solar thermal25 102 146Ocean energy0 6 14 43 61 Ocean energy4 9 29Distribution losses112 99 96 95 95 103 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 0 21 82 277 550Own consumption electricity55 84 90 102 117 137 Share of fluctuating RES0.0% 7% 23% 48% 64%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 95 361 715 922 RES share (domestic generation) 3.1% 13% 36% 72% 86%Final energy consumption (electricity) 599 772 880 1,215 1,600 1,958Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 0 46 167 584 1,142 1,679Share of fluctuating RES0.0% 4.8% 14.1% 31.5% 43.3% 51.4%table 12.88: middle east: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 1.8% 10% 27% 62% 86% 98%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 6 67 207 409 681 PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040Total24,516 28,089 29,839 29,264 28,577Fossil24,432 27,078 26,921 21,456 13,651table 12.85: middle east: heat supplyHard coal134 99 126 450 59720092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite0 0 0 0 0Natural gas11,836 13,394 15,917 13,941 9,217Crude oil12,463 13,585 10,879 7,065 3,8362015PJ/a7.40District heating0 2Fossil fuels0 0Biomass0 0Solar collectors0 2Geothermal0 0100091Heat from CHP0 3Fossil fuels0 1Biomass0 2Geothermal0 0Hydrogen0 0123630Direct heating 1)5,834 6,476 6,854Fossil fuels5,807 6,084 5,840Biomass20 62 94Solar collectors510 246 562Geothermal 2)84 212Hydrogen0 145Total heat supply 1)5,834 6,481 6,875Fossil fuels5,807 6,085 5,843Biomass20 63 100Solar collectors510 248 571Geothermal 1)85 216Hydrogen0 145RES share0 6% 13%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 164 4291) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015 2020Condensation power plantsCoalLignite492104991043510Gas246 279 331Oil225 208 95Diesel20 11 8Combined heat & power production 0 3 5Coal0 0 0041Lignite0 0Gas0 2Oil0 1CO2 emissions power generationGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversion(incl. CHP public)CoalLignite2462451,510271%266177334492241492102802201,633293%289189400499257502103351041,580284%27017440343529744010203table 12.86: middle east: co2 emissionsPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public2297.11452506.3413660060712221574147,2404,7131461,3894915007,4284,7342031,44953850434%909203028100266123700612880.10273151,150207%2091463042812102894.01,302131001181345451185198207,4392,8452092,8368157348,0242,8973942,9541,02675463%1,3342040140001372290090149001463571102%12298147140633261.82,209219001972270380218344617,5048152904,2281,3428298,4268955084,4261,70889089%1,9392050220021111400140360035117331%34484922203580.52,908NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal084471530100.4%0200916,47513,8124,6764,53913601000.0%4,595437800131,7482,38809000.4%4,5411,720310001,1061,69351611.2%700.5%2,6631,6491,0140339791149436323717103.5%1,462201519,65116,3995,6925,4501465639401.1%5,3285385454161,7492,7491192512706.2%5,3802,2012210001,1541,8351275397.6%7994.9%3,2521,6971,52629332,8851372811,177668600229.5%3,668202021,00817,4596,0295,4851592477921604.7%5,724626166201741,0983,2602555923217113.5%5,7052,4636530008841,937307595518.8%2,13212.2%3,5491,6001,87871337,7761791,0084,1491,1221,2685026.0%12,208table 12.89: middle east: final energy demand203022,20918,0955,4514,10317437347929632215.9%6,16480149515813906652,72470511041358936.1%6,4803,0931,912212104911,9506856917144.1%5,95232.9%4,1141,4022,300411014,9261871,7288,5961,1963,06415551.7%18,007204022,46918,1584,5601,9021903541,12897198647.6%6,44796983451847002701,6691,39816459486465.2%7,1523,6543,144404003291,3111,4378929269.9%11,37862.7%4,3101,2102,54056020501,121004310042828310047412235411600204820161,13646004510021,089282831004748202354179870%96%205027,6476,83763704,4441,756020,8102122,71812,1901,2104,25922074.9%23,498205022,56618,5574,1375212132981,6851,6451,42080.5%6,6501,1371,1107967260692712,0292201,15397593.1%7,7704,2064,107838301216882,19912534988.3%16,38288.3%4,0091,0022,40660131512glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - MIDDLE EAST

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKmiddle east: investment & employmenttable 12.90: middle east: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050Reference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyEnergy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy136,53161,6511,77344,3382,6414,44608,454085,704429,3107,42844,33843,69597,64722,055198,83515,31190,38563,9162,67228,4267,7957,795017,22905,271864,9049,00928,426148,390160,93021,433481,22615,490145,21240,6983,46812,7809,5516,071158,814059,679851,72211,55512,780185,382260,19576,486263,80141,523109,07568,8833,95319,09811,89511,571022,36601,1471,542,69012,06419,098314,384260,12043,084857,20536,7352011-2050481,203235,14811,865104,64131,88329,8831556,8620151,8013,688,62640,056104,641691,852778,892163,0581,801,067109,0602011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR12,0305,8792972,61679774701,42203,79592,2161,0012,61617,29619,4724,07645,0272,72612table 12.91: middle east: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $Reference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumpsEnergy [R]evolution scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps2011-20205,7003,39601,399905152,24811,83351,84655,36033,2092021-20307,0874,47101,0681,548159,5096,11232,84357,39263,1622031-204010,2185,34501,9552,917305,45715,24062,093127,816100,3102041-205014,5433,93201,8208,791333,63012,15889,063111,994120,4152011-205037,54717,14306,24314,161950,84345,342235,845352,561317,0952011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR939429015635423,7711,1345,8968,8147,927glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - MIDDLE EASTtable 12.92: middle east: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBS20102015By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs1235051900192.81,31771,2289737272.01.00.03.1-33-1,317902770960196.31,34421,241148710363.0120.02.6-240.21,344REFERENCE2020 20306321791,057203.41,42211,340156613285.33.60.010.8-5.00.31,4224521891,182142.91,47911,40956419245.76.70.03.9-3.70.61,479ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 203045211986935206.71,79811,18406133436462117.09617143241,7984851261271,029212.91,98011,23707426927841514.621414143351,98040010919682187.21,613186307499225113267101132277301,613316

eastern europe/eurasia: scenario results data12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA© NASA/JESSE ALLENimage LOCATED JUST 600 MILES (970 KILOMETERS) FROM THE NORTH POLE, FRANZ JOSEF LAND, RUSSIA, IS PERPETUALLY COATED WITH ICE. GLACIERS COVER ROUGHLY85 PERCENT OF THE ARCHIPELAGO’S LAND MASSES, AND SEA ICE FLOATS IN THE CHANNELS BETWEEN ISLANDS EVEN IN THE SUMMERTIME.317

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKeastern europe/eurasia: reference scenario12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAtable 12.93: eastern europe/eurasia: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energyDistribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)PJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.MILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public318200975863634812327602921000008501668457324300797531,6081,0352291476213632760296292100300018324801,15410.0%18.4%table 12.94: eastern europe/eurasia: heat supply20093,3203,22595003,8663,84323009,1028,6884043716,28815,7555233703.3%table 12.95: eastern europe/eurasia: co2 emissions2009233906948214979237120582401,212327189630662,48362%3183462621,1583993397.320159679410313290309330410113008901647962616500825651,8571,22425818275926030903243041011730018728701,357110.6%17.4%20153,3083,207101003,9743,938360010,0539,5984456517,33516,7425826503.4%2015403127138117201918221106556361,322347244673572,67166%3613752961,2593803407.920201,1699912621780376631615225009011647364314600830712,0691,344263199860220376035031615221250020030701,537170.8%16.9%20203,5493,441109004,0113,966450010,92610,4324815718,48617,8396356703.5%202048912816417719187121495526361,360342259703562,81270%3924033241,2963963418.220301,55011016742730426213523043900916163706688800835812,4661,6162732371,095110426042335230432990022634711,867331.4%17.2%20303,9893,867122004,0594,001580012,27011,673576101020,31819,541756101003.8%203067313821031312180720587488261,480343297801403,11377%4304493921,4124293379.220401,9151352345774043835396726915009321586769341010840922,8471,8712923011,270804380537396726945160023936622,218812.8%18.9%20404,5914,450140004,1084,027738013,53412,799672145022,23321,276886145804.3%204082613628638815278019381491151,607329367879323,41585%4634904561,53347333110.320502,3051582797914146346431100813190094715261719212208451023,2522,1663103401,51061463062343110081358210025739422,5771133.5%19.2%20505,6215,449172004,1594,0499020014,32113,484763185724,10222,9821,025187704.6%20508021243403191727751857550961,578310415828253,55788%4785125151,50255032411.0table 12.96: eastern europe/eurasia: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energyFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.97: eastern europe/eurasia: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal20091881717118242090000000218462313414100209940627363401462224209190000100000.1%22.4%200947,31542,3137,1382,18224,0698,9233,0311,9721,053238932204.1%200928,21325,3205,5983,8231,375283726801.7%8,1441,8583432,098175258872,719057005.1%11,5771,9233553,699253689674,175343657.1%1,3375.3%2,8941,3841,439702015230222529804519450100020439191331210019311434287624316121045010294501100061.4%23.5%201551,60745,9987,9412,72625,5159,8173,3872,2221,0933591,0038204.3%201531,28828,2846,6784,3791,780534668102.0%9,2022,3244062,100391,2299062,560082005.7%12,4042,0973663,774593691,2454,456645457.2%1,5505.5%3,0031,3991,512922020265222847605319781110019937161351010018712463301594418216053010997811210092.0%23.6%202055,03448,4828,0862,80727,25810,3314,1182,4341,14055111,08814004.4%202033,71230,4937,0844,7171,834514828101.9%10,0222,6404472,122431,3049502,917088005.8%13,3872,4134083,978653991,2654,843547877.2%1,6735.5%3,2201,4991,621992030330223385205941071423200183331413241001681551332454472176059013010714235200173.3%25.4%203061,44453,7648,4173,08331,13211,1324,6653,0151,268109211,39022704.9%203038,03634,3718,0275,4211,972595729832.0%11,2693,1815462,249501,3641,0533,3110111006.3%15,0752,9685094,244734311,2515,6181054397.6%2,0115.8%3,6651,7061,84511320404092543110306061193427300177291213211001591858635654562424060017011934278300417.0%29.0%204066,94858,3558,3223,76134,19412,0784,7943,7991,425259451,69137805.7%204042,38738,3559,0076,1552,0786670313342.2%12,6233,7657112,470631,3221,1503,7640152007.3%16,7253,5176644,547883891,2696,33914611398.5%2,5426.6%4,0321,8782,03012420504962951150306381304731030018029111370200159206754125863287306302001304731010300578.5%29.7%205069,23959,8237,9594,22534,67812,9615,0684,3471,553360641,94742406.3%table 12.98: eastern europe/eurasia: final energy demand205046,40142,1629,9596,9502,1207480815572.3%13,9724,3888402,889831,1391,1544,2180184007.9%18,2304,0807815,0001112071,2886,90818683459.0%2,9767.1%4,2391,9742,135131

eastern europe/eurasia: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.99: eastern europe/eurasia: electricity generation table 12.102: eastern europe/eurasia: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Power plants758 954 1,143 1,590 2,158 2,594 Power plants188 242 327 598 966 1,227Coal63 81 75 61 34 00 Coal17 18 17 12 60 0050004Lignite63 73 64 18 0Lignite17 18 14 4Gas48 103 137 145 74 19 Gas11 22 30 36 19Oil12 90 30 20 000 010 Oil82 80 20 10 0009Diesel3DieselNuclear276 285 269 150Nuclear42 42 38 21Biomass0 16 25 46 46 20 Biomass0 4 5 9Hydro292 335 350 360 375 380 Hydro90 104 108 109 113 114Wind100000 46 188 673 1,303 1,634 Wind000000 25 98 328 619 776of which wind offshore01302 1881 7 16 25 of which wind offshore01001 17106 3 6 10PV71 198 327 PV60 163 270Geothermal28 60 133 Geothermal52 11 27Solar thermal power plants5 24 36 Solar thermal power plants8 12Ocean energy15 32 42 44 Ocean energy12 16 17Combined heat & power plants 850 891 891 847 747 620 Combined heat & power production 218 200 194 194 170 136Coal166 156 152 131 46 00 Coal46 37 34 26 80 00Lignite84 77 59 15 0Lignite23 18 13 3Gas573 629 611 524 366 181 Gas134 133 133 129 93 46Oil24 11 3 1 0 0 Oil14 8310 2 0 0 0Biomass300 14 52 127 212 274 Biomass10011 27 48 62Geothermal40 14 48 123 165 Geothermal20 80 21 28Hydrogen0 0 0 0 Hydrogen0 0CHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers797 825 820 764 653 520 Main activity producers209 189 182 176 147 112Autoproducers53 66 71 83 94 100 Autoproducers9 11 12 18 23 24Total generation1,608 1,845 2,034 2,437 2,905 3,214 Total generation406 442 521 792 1,137 1,364Fossil1,035 1,139 1,105 896 521 201 Fossil273 262 245 211 128 52Coal229 237 228 191 80 00 Coal63 55 51 38 15 00Lignite147 150 123 33 0Lignite40 36 27 7 0Gas621 732 748 669 440 200 Gas146 155 163 165 112 51Oil36 20 60 30 1000 1100 Oil22 16 40 10 0000 0000Diesel3 0Diesel2 0Nuclear276 285 269 150 Nuclear42 42 38 21Hydrogen0 0 0 0Hydrogen0 0 0 0Renewables296 421 661 1,390 2,383 3,013 Renewables91 138 238 560 1,009 1,312Hydro292 335 350 360 375 380 Hydro90 104 108 109 113 114Wind1003000 46 188 673 1,303 1,634 Wind0001000 25 98 328 619 776of which wind offshore01 18 7 16 25 of which wind offshore017101 17 3 6 10PV71 198 327 PV60 163 270Biomass30 77 173 258 294 Biomass16 36 57 66Geothermal702 22 76 183 297 Geothermal406 13 32 56Solar thermal1 5 24 36 Solar thermal2 8 12Ocean energy15 32 42 44 Ocean energy12 16 17Distribution losses183 195 196 197 193 187 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 0 27 110 401 799 1,064Own consumption electricity248 299 302 303 297 288 Share of fluctuating RES0.1% 6.0% 21.2% 50.6% 70.3% 78.0%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 56 170 385 595 RES share (domestic generation) 22.4% 31.3% 45.6% 70.7% 88.8% 96.2%Final energy consumption (electricity) 1,154 1,325 1,455 1,742 2,007 2,122Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 1 49 211 776 1,543 2,005Share of fluctuating RES0.0% 2.6% 10.4% 31.9% 53.1% 62.4%table 12.103: eastern europe/eurasia: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 18.4% 22.8% 32.5% 57.1% 82.1% 93.7%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 30 109 277 488 743 PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Total47,315 48,934 48,539 44,397 40,402 37,321Fossil42,313 41,420 36,970 26,654 15,654 8,055table 12.100: eastern europe/eurasia: heat supplyHard coal7,138 6,689 6,523 5,701 4,261 3,27420092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite2,182 2,140 1,609 421 0 0Natural gas24,069 24,707 22,539 16,313 9,073 2,949Crude oil8,923 7,884 6,298 4,219 2,319 1,8332015PJ/a7.30District heating3,320 3,226Fossil fuels3,225 2,936Biomass95 161Solar collectors00 32Geothermal97Heat from CHP3,866 3,968Fossil fuels3,843 3,845Biomass23 85Geothermal00 38Hydrogen0Direct heating 1)9,102 9,485Fossil fuels8,688 8,379Biomass404 634Solar collectors370 179Geothermal 2)294Hydrogen0Total heat supply 1)16,288 16,680Fossil fuels15,755 15,160Biomass523 880Solar collectors370 211Geothermal 1)428Hydrogen0RES share3.3% 9%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 6551) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015Condensation power plantsCoalLignite23390692796999Gas48 91Oil21 19Diesel4 1Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversion979237120582401,212327189630662,48362%3183462621,158399896210103559241,175279202650442,35358%3083242721,115334339table 12.101: eastern europe/eurasia: co2 emissionsPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public3406.93193,2282,550323972584,0413,61630212309,4096,8841,17458165611316,67813,0501,7996781,03811321%1,80820202586484102717821987650081,040262160602152,06251%2532702669882843416.07503,0291,7276062124854,1082,95971443508,9164,0431,7791,2381,54031616,0538,7293,0981,4502,46031645%4,26520301685022886156916419383373821441472101,39234%1651561956911853374.11,7212,9138167573201,0194,0041,7201,1761,10808,4011,7311,7251,6412,68462015,3184,2673,6591,9614,81162071%6,91520406928038123175602592386840298569517%936899342933312.12,7202,5571286145371,2793,7687631,5231,48207,7482831,5071,7003,40285714,0741,1743,6432,2376,16285791%10,028205011009121300012821410013752436%441748104303240.73,314NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal3,0311,9721,053238932204.1%0200928,21325,3205,5983,8231,375283726801.7%8,1441,8583432,098175258872,719057005.1%11,5771,9233553,699253689674,175343657.1%1,3375.3%2,8941,3841,439703,1254,3881,2061662132,16063678.9%2,668201529,60526,6916,0313,9601,50510845810403.5%8,6682,2175052,1221226416922,6993919960010.7%11,9922,0974783,7532103486894,22914056217513.0%2,70110.1%2,9131,1651,6021462,9478,6221,2606777084,2371,6865417.7%6,393202030,00427,0426,0983,7711,413320577187178.4%8,8772,3987792,2353395804102,26811661513611922.8%12,0672,2647353,7515562894533,65246576742724.4%5,48620.3%2,9628891,7772961,64216,1011,2962,4251,7246,4904,05111536.2%16,918203028,77525,8445,3282,5331,0844911,11963810122.3%8,7702,6101,4892,331802366911,53129399821833345.5%11,7462,5421,4503,6451,2671352682,1379451,0231,05048.8%10,91142.2%2,9328791,466586024,7491,3504,6922,7607,7028,09315161.2%26,423204027,28124,3784,5401,2077205521,7021,39636049.4%8,5422,7742,2762,3791,51207981543097843465272.2%11,2962,7512,2573,5132,318321229261,2109821,75875.5%16,93769.5%2,9036971,0451,161029,2651,3685,8843,5447,63010,68115878.4%31,773table 12.104: eastern europe/eurasia: final energy demand205025,58822,8324,0125594644391,8451,73070570.5%8,1162,8802,7002,2411,93203511745084264890291.4%10,7052,9142,7313,2862,9780162321,2508702,13793.1%20,21588.5%2,7551,1025511,10231912glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKeastern europe/eurasia: investment & employmenttable 12.105: eastern europe/eurasia: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050 2011-2050Reference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyEnergy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy333,918105,6036,20076,20212,7812,3608,05900172,558397,43664,729110,837139,12713,03745,2401,07123,395242,132124,8799,68789,74012,1133,8325,6183,8315883,685629,69578,92061,205302,53776,84183,7188,27418,201147,345166,50211,676104,16335,5476,2138,81938478,2781,035,388126,66772,014504,055126,007161,13336,0469,466176,611127,16013,57069,71728,1254,7618,0162,953185,6251,052,280106,57941,878517,731167,752179,07522,78416,481900,007524,14441,132339,82288,56717,16630,5126,822123270,1463,114,799376,895285,9351.463,450383,637469,16668,17567,5432011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR22,50013,1041,0288,4962,21442976317136,75477,8709,4227,14836,5869,59111,7291,7041,68912table 12.106: eastern europe/eurasia: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $Reference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumpsEnergy [R]evolution scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps2011-202055,24451,7556796942,116784,705149,937322,882203,350108,5372021-203056,37050,2952,2772,2791,519651,084122,700106,511204,078217,7942031-204039,50522,1571,2862,97213,0901,329,03635,551653,677280,324359,4842041-205030,71925,4601,3602,2361,664883,4650341,123182,759359,5842011-2050181,839149,6675,6028,18118,3883,648,291308,1891,424,192870,5111,045,3992011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR4,5463,74214020546091,2077,70535,60521,76326,135glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIAtable 12.107: eastern europe/eurasia: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBSREFERENCE20102015 2020 2030By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs12537187975362.91,688745692751767875103.51.20.01-8.8-1,6887520177911407.81,5916377276915875717.42.61.20.00-0.90.21,5915719171849446.61,5425877425216276739.10.40.91.70.02-0.51,5424217146819372.51,3985097093314667679.21.30.6-0.020.60.21,398ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 2030330161203920350.91,96549871532719220791372990.516133951,965413214232866268.71,994309660329943326617575120.88.82101141,994325226262653103.91,570153386329993695826991144.03.198921,570320

india: scenario results data12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - INDIA© NASAimage HIGH SEASONAL WATERS ALONG THE INDIA-NEPAL BORDER, 2009.321

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKindia: reference scenariotable 12.108: india: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy20099706662011226020151,298849311462404471474111000020201,7241,1464218725067151685821500020302,7121,73666343230126562358744010020403,9002,43910755620018610829911266911120505,0703,0961647701802461593641378109132table 12.111: india: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy20091869932070523920152991646338073492020354186744801045530110000203055928911788019107742126000204079640818123702718985124400020501,0345182717160362711960268010192107180000000000000001100000000000000023070005500000005Combined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy970824666201122601901271071800200021190200000211,3191,0708683114824044020614741110700045410500000451,7691,4461,18742192250670256168582151500084760800000842,7962,2521,8126635123012604182358744056100123111012000001234,0223,2452,5491075692001860591299112669108111162145016000001625,2314,2093,24216478618024607753641378109159132Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy1861309932070505239110020003042161696348070814923073000111001000001136525619674580100995530110400020190200000205804063081179801901557742126100003027020000030826586435181267027021398512441800040360300000401,07476255427174603602761196026827010Distribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)2205807022406801,02133710101,34253217702,09778128902,96496639503,883Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)116%28%3010%27%4011%27%6812%27%9612%26%12812%26%12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - INDIAFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.109: india: heat supplyPJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.table 12.110: india: co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)181.9%13%200900000000009,9404,4315,4971109,9404,4315,497110055.4%20099628482555330000009628482555331,704287%2721921549621251,2081.4523.9%16%2015000002200011,1755,3865,76323211,1775,3885,763232051.8%20151,035908336529021200101,0569283366291,924324%4081741641,0351431,3081.5734.1%14%2020000007700012,3736,5285,81328512,3796,5345,813285047.2%20201,3981,241468031046440201,4441,2854682312,523425%5271932351,3981701,3871.81264.5%15%203000000242400014,2438,3425,833472214,2688,3665,8334722041.4%20301,9551,7256613827079750402,0341,80066142273,579604%7112154781,9552191,5232.31824.5%15%204000000535300016,04510,0375,868904916,09810,0905,8689049037.3%20402,5972,258992192101121070502,7102,36599224214,854819%8872268562,5972871,6273.02484.7%15%205000000939300017,95611,7305,9941597318,04911,8235,99415973034.5%20503,0252,5801362921601481410703,1722,720136299165,9811009%1,0562351,2853,0253801,6923.5table 12.112: india: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal200929,04921,45612,7583262,0056,3662037,39138565116,9300025.4%200918,81017,1832,1562,02183745600.6%5,6951,175154001,87498246901,1950023.7%9,3321,309171001,0351,2947115,676062.8%7,22042.0%1,6271,1035250201532,80324,17314,1954462,3277,2064838,146528149617,4017024.8%201522,11119,9622,3712,1529955651002.7%7,6511,776277203,0221,18035801,3130020.8%9,9401,836286006911,47424235,891262.4%7,85639.4%2,1491,456202040,50931,26018,9645662,9418,7897268,523606208827,61413021.0%table 12.113: india: final energy demand25,99723,5283,3723,08912283771102.8%9,2862,352341703,8971,27248001,2790017.4%10,8702,402348007061,68855285,987358.6%8,08034.3%2,4691,67369302020203055,45844,39825,9057394,78512,9691,3779,6848473121918,29934117.4%2,077 2,507 2,938988 1,193 1,3970 0 034,88531,8206,8466,276277195204045,96142,26112,34511,095680440205057,87753,54218,54416,6631,00967098 131 20115 19 300 0 03.1%12,3333,5753.7%15,4174,9333.8%18,6156,425535 725 95224 53 930 0 05,299 6,617 7,7261,409 1,525 1,775675 900 1,1220 6 331,350 1,383 1,44200 00 0015.3%12,64113.7%14,49913.0%16,3833,877 5,606 7,352580 824 1,09000 00 006571,972166475,9071651.8%8,64427.2%3,0655222,173322845,7573646.2%9,27321.9%3,7003082,4105231265,6105542.0%10,00718.7%4,33579602030204073,30860,29633,1921,0787,30418,7232,03310,9791,0784023449,09457415.0%205088,95074,33437,8691,4749,63725,3542,68911,9281,3094935639,48176713.4%1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public322

india: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.114: india: electricity generationtable 12.117: india: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030Power plants970 1,279 1,548 2,266 3,138 4,258 Power plants186 273 390 691Coal666 824 805 622 332 89 Coal99 127 128 104Lignite20 18 13 8 4 0 Lignite3 3 2 1Gas112 124 191 197 193 154 Gas20 28 46 48Oil26 21 10 10 00 000 Oil7052 7085 3089 0067Diesel0 0 0DieselNuclear19 52 53 43 24NuclearBiomass2 14 35 34 34 29 BiomassHydro107 144 189 195 201 204 Hydro39 48 62 64Wind18 67 187 427 672 917 Wind11 37 96 185of which wind offshore00000 0 6 121 253 397 of which wind offshore00000 09000 2 36PV13 43 243 528 830 PV30 161Geothermal100 5 112 250 437 Geothermal141 20Solar thermal power plants15 315 781 1,402 Solar thermal power plants79Ocean energy3 69 120 197 Ocean energy17Combined heat & power plants0 20 61 152 376 608 Combined heat & power production 0 3 9 27Coal0000000 00 00 00 00 00 Coal0000000 0020200 0050400 00LigniteLigniteGas10 29 55 84 99 Gas11Oil0 0 0 0 0 Oil0Biomass10 30 76 188 304 Biomass11Geothermal00 10 20 81 144 Geothermal40Hydrogen2 22 61 HydrogenCHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers0 0 0 0 0 0 Main activity producers0 0 0 0Autoproducers0 20 61 152 376 608 Autoproducers0 3 9 27Total generation970 1,299 1,608 2,418 3,514 4,866 Total generation186 276 399 718Fossil824 997 1,048 883 613 342 Fossil130 167 184 164Coal666 824 805 622 332 89 Coal99 127 128 104Lignite20 18 13 8 4 0 Lignite3 3 2 1Gas112 134 220 252 277 253 Gas20 30 51 58Oil26 21 10 10 00 000 Oil7050 7080 3080 0060Diesel0 0 0DieselNuclear19 52 53 43 24NuclearHydrogen0 0 0 2 22 61 HydrogenRenewables127 249 508 1,490 2,855 4,464 Renewables52 101 207 548Hydro107 144 189 195 201 204 Hydro39 48 62 64Wind18 67 187 427 672 917 Wind11 37 96 185of which wind offshore002000 0 6 121 253 397 of which wind offshore002000 097000 2 36PV13 43 243 528 830 PV30 161Biomass24 65 110 222 333 Biomass13 19Geothermal100 6 131 331 581 Geothermal141 24Solar thermal15 315 781 1,402 Solar thermal79Ocean energy3 69 120 197 Ocean energy17Distribution losses220 240 260 284 305 305 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 11 46 127 362Own consumption electricity58 68 78 95 113 125 Share of fluctuating RES6% 17% 32% 50%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 1 36 180 451 RES share (domestic generation) 28% 36% 52% 76%Final energy consumption (electricity) 702 997 1,278 2,022 2,953 4,053Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 18 80 233 739 1,320 1,944Share of fluctuating RES1.9% 6.2% 14.5% 30.6% 37.6% 39.9%table 12.118: india: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 13% 19% 32% 62% 81% 92%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 25 93 290 593 993 PJ/a2009 20152030Total29,049 32,233 35,977 42,312Fossil21,456 22,590 23,855 21,694table 12.115: india: heat supplyHard coal12,758 12,979 12,827 10,20520092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite326 258 164 86Natural gas2,005 2,832 4,207 4,820Crude oil6,366 6,521 6,657 6,5832015PJ/a1.40District heating0 25 89Fossil fuels0 0 0Biomass0 20 71Solar collectors0 50 18Geothermal00Heat from CHP0 152 438Fossil fuels0 72 210Biomass0 80 217Geothermal0 00 11Hydrogen00Direct heating 1)9,940 10,811 11,330Fossil fuels4,431 4,725 4,583Biomass5,497 5,853 5,829Solar collectors11 171 724Geothermal 2)0 62 194Hydrogen0 0Total heat supply 1)9,940 10,988 11,856Fossil fuels4,431 4,797 4,792Biomass5,497 5,954 6,117Solar collectors11 176 742Geothermal 1)00 62 205Hydrogen0 0RES share55.4% 56% 60%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 188 5231) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015 2020Condensation power plantsCoalLignite962848259838821997987214Gas55 56 81Oil33 26 12Diesel0 0 0Combined heat & power production 0 12 33Coal0000 00 00LigniteGas12 33Oil0 0CO2 emissions power generationLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversion(incl. CHP public)Coal2555331,704287%2721921549621259628481968261,760297%32716216098312899588214115121,790302%3491372019791241,0138721,208table 12.116: india: co2 emissionsPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public1,3081.31641,3871.3733272019068148602833901761111,8703,9075,3711,9136245513,0024,1915,9511,9818146568%1,2662030707618880104000400747618812011,506254%321902867071031,5231.02,0735700257251631,98333775273316111,2482,3744,8442,7381,11318013,8012,7115,8522,9891,90834180%2,297204038730847600420042042930841180983166%20453266387721,6270.63,87189202235261433,0853589951,29643610,5108154,0243,6891,67730514,4871,1735,2424,2153,11674191%3,56320501327405800400040017274098042672%8922147132371,6920.35,555NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal2037,39138565116,9300025.4%0200918,81017,1832,1562,02183745600.6%5,6951,175154001,87498246901,1950023.7%9,3321,309171001,0351,2947115,676062.8%7,22042.0%1,6271,1035250202057611,5466796729528,8553781132.1%605 4,5845679,0765182402258,00984028.1%table 12.119: india: final energy demand201521,56419,4652,3212,08311950691302.7%7,2041,685323156932,1361,011770861,3519025.9%9,9401,836352007361,24139845,9663964.8%8,36743.0%2,0991,33867684202024,21621,7973,0222,588181711805734.2%8,3452,1186684602782,0429899652621,42981032.6%10,4302,30372710105901,042874625,8577968.4%9,98145.8%2,4191,39778024246720,1517021,5363,9918,7754,89924847.7%13,168203029,20626,2914,9103,6882501138465211413.1%9,9492,9081,7929847371,7606881,2045371,5063006249.4%11,4323,5002,15747473846251391,3765,16919278.2%14,49355.1%2,9151,1309408452040996561460047662657033844142297100190301650711,067121561650045937662657033838601422963159%88%204046,81616,2756,027404,5585,65026030,2827242,4187,7038,92510,08143264.8%26,453204032,52429,2625,7543,3862971281,8841,5305929.7%11,1543,6402,9572,2691,9508853989438431,46052019670.7%12,3554,7653,87110410405082631,8954,42939386.5%20,28669.3%3,2611,0369211,30420501,3251503800066733510451974223471210025055291201211,4467815063000121,35667335104519621032234790262%94%205049,3579,5272,80303,7003,024039,8307343,30012,2527,86914,96670980.8%39,458205034,51331,2246,0021,7413281393,4643,17832960.3%12,0694,3163,9593,4763,1411711214551,0791,30982331887.9%13,1535,8845,3972902900293232,6093,42459293.6%26,53585.0%3,2891,0128961,38132312glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - INDIA

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKindia: investment & employmenttable 12.120: india: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-20502011-20502011-2050AVERAGEPER YEARReference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy179,759134,1127,85771,94630,85322,3335445800261,422174,10919,99299,71829,34924,099395389168334,311199,06627,261102,26335,93131,5124581,213429399,127222,81740,348108,38128,40341,6614823,1184231,174,620730,10595,457382,307124,537119,6041,8785,3001,02129,36518,2532,3869,5583,1132,9904713326Energy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy92,723377,11644,76395,184127,92961,84712,69031,9202,78314,3561,124,34928,51928,391196,461187,397181,149458,10744,32423,8061,254,043104,12831,039266,757235,120241,948349,74125,30941,7441,747,500109,80946,703290,619327,627301,348621,62149,773172,6284,503,008287,219201,317881,766811,991737,1351,461,389122,1904,316112,5757,1805,03322,04420,30018,42836,5353,055table 12.121: india: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $2011-20202021-20302031-20402041-20502011-20502011-2050AVERAGEPER YEARReference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps169,347167,49206821,17343,53536,24408386,454212,883203,73601,5207,62718,6365,93802,7769,921444,401413,41005,81725,17511,11010,3350145629Energy [R]evolution scenario12RenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps248,578131,06011,39774,00332,118232,93244,14713,62790,29084,868481,510175,20725,024164,293116,986329,78115,89457,992160,50095,3961,292,801366,307108,039489,086329,36832,3209,1582,70112,2278,234glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - INDIAtable 12.122: india: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBS20102015By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs4942461351,530-2,4051,142165331,0648258567770.91.30.015.53.12,4052211111521,233-1,716735134398096547045290.51.00.017.50.31,716REFERENCE2020 20303271551541,159-1,794880138397385668240450.31.10.082.60.61,79422799147987-1,460842156294323326417140.10.30.13.90.81,460ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 20304044281611,310-2,30458215681,5587541033162108373.9109172,3045914962001,125-2,41246713171,808654482802923416124.4292232,412393274190632-1,48820812031,15740034145187261026.9233231,488324

non oecd asia: scenario results data12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - NON-OECD ASIA© NASA/ROBERT SIMMONimage THE IRRAWADDY DELTA, BURMA.325

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKnon oecd asia: reference scenariotable 12.123: non oecd asia: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy2009985162944068428449136100200020151,28135010345331286719194502280020201,593595110459262870282271215330020302,3191,0651185401228935730043515480020403,1991,5811257167289290368103924660020504,1542,1731338911289012343516213338400table 12.126: non oecd asia: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy200924629179832116320153135717112212095643024002020374931712118209675604500203052016418143102212111002121170020407012431918852212161234531710002050899334202351221122146715241300481003009810100018Combined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy41344030007341,0258151969840687284401661361009200047365330009381,3281,0123861084563428670249194502192800503863300010401,6431,26963311646230287003042271215283300604564400011492,3781,8221,110124544162893046330043515574800705375510012583,2692,5261,6341327201128920651368103924916600876676620013744,2403,3112,23914089772890083943516213331258400Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy2561953717983211605548100330010%22%1081010001932323765181122220907864302540051%24%119111000293852801021812119209096756046500131111100021153337117519144102212015010021211117001512111000213717494256201896221202111234531717100019161110002179186313502223622211027514671524231300Distribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)824808951056101,1621297501,43917310102,10122613202,90829317103,773Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)103%25%326%28%629%30%9410%30%12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - NON OECD ASIAFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.124: non oecd asia: heat supplyPJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.table 12.125: non oecd asia: co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)10.1%16%200900000353500010,3615,1845,1734010,3955,2195,17340049.8%2009542164951946722413440258319899194921,51467%3621363515491151,0461.470.6%19%201500000404000012,0316,6715,328221012,0726,7115,3282210044.4%201569734010021224224335513740374105213481,90385%4871614457061041,1281.7171.0%19%202000000525200013,4837,9575,48937013,5358,0095,489370040.8%202090654810221421224435513951583107215452,300102%5641804959161441,1941.9582.4%19%203033000666600015,7469,9775,69177015,81410,0465,691770036.5%20301,32393610425292250405231,373976109254342,978133%6722116171,3331451,3072.31263.9%20%20401818000717000018,15711,7236,295134518,24611,8126,2951345035.3%20401,8121,34210833452257466231,8691,388114337303,691164%7522337431,8221411,3922.71954.6%20%20503434000757500019,85412,7796,876190919,96312,8876,8761909035.4%20502,1351,64011435812270576342,2051,697121361274,201187%8052348802,1461361,4452.9table 12.127: non oecd asia: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal200932,51823,0503,9391,7196,75710,6344858,983490357,4441,041027.6%200924,05921,5574,8874,672174319200.7%6,8501,395226802,0911,1331,38708350015.5%9,8201,8192952402191,25343046,070064.9%7,46334.6%2,5032,03445711201539,04428,4526,2171,9368,40311,8977279,86570019298,160957025.2%201529,08326,1006,1765,79525111316301.9%9,0601,8693501002,6131,2892,17301,1060016.1%10,8652,2984312802611,385570226,294762.2%8,32731.9%2,9832,42554513202044,33333,2148,7962,0959,49512,82775910,36081842558,525919023.3%202032,71229,5016,8746,40429415720402.3%10,7372,2784221103,0621,3472,83501,2040015.1%11,8892,8835343803171,466728376,419058.8%8,77729.8%3,2112,61058614203054,93642,30213,3762,31111,82614,7891,01111,6221,0811551319,1801,075021.1%203039,76536,2178,7388,08539622631602.7%13,3773,0615961103,5741,3773,94601,4080015.0%14,1024,4708715304121,5241,070776,496052.8%9,68126.7%3,5482,88464816204065,97552,03517,9232,39515,00516,71399912,9421,3243692209,7051,323019.6%table 12.128: non oecd asia: final energy demand204046,70542,90610,6559,811503275661302.7%15,8273,9297831203,7831,4104,98101,7120015.8%16,4246,4761,2907204301,4421,5351346,332347.2%10,54224.6%3,7993,08869417205073,88258,59121,0282,41816,56118,58598714,3041,56758330910,3231,522019.4%205053,04749,07712,66411,5746433261212402.8%17,8134,8709641203,8191,4385,65902,0150016.7%18,6008,5931,7019001961,3552,0011906,168743.4%11,39523.2%3,9703,227725181) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public326

non oecd asia: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.129: non oecd asia: electricity generationtable 12.132: non oecd asia: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030 2040Power plants985 1,279 1,518 2,215 3,281 4,055 Power plants246 319 457 776 1,242Coal162 306 300 232 91 00 Coal29 50 47 36 14Lignite94 79 52 22 4Lignite17 13 8 3 1Gas406 511 513 451 375 20 Gas98 126 138 127 112Oil84 30 26 11 05 0100 Oil32 13 11 6740 0320Diesel28 28 26 13Diesel11 12 11Nuclear44 45 40 30 12 Nuclear63 63 52Biomass9 10 9 2 0BiomassHydro136 175 208 240 263 286 Hydro48 58 69 80 88Wind100 54 173 473 910 1,275 Wind100300 30 90 210 372of which wind offshore07 2 20 51 97 of which wind offshore06500 1 9 14PV77 273 546 807 PV59 199 391Geothermal20 32 72 181 369 506 Geothermal11 29 63Solar thermal power plants00 20 16 235 590 928 Solar thermal power plants42 64 171Ocean energy7 52 117 232 Ocean energy12 27Combined heat & power plants 41 52 71 149 209 250 Combined heat & power production 9 11 15 33 52Coal34 35 34 33 12 50 Coal8101000 8110100 8020210 80 30Lignite403000 552510 3 2 0LigniteGas14 59 110 135 Gas13 30Oil2 1 0 0 Oil0650 0Biomass11 33 52 63 Biomass11Geothermal60 21 34 47 Geothermal90Hydrogen0 0 0 HydrogenCHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers7 9 10 11 12 15 Main activity producers1 2 2 2 3Autoproducers34 43 61 138 197 235 Autoproducers8 10 13 30 49Total generation1,025 1,331 1,589 2,364 3,490 4,305 Total generation256 331 472 809 1,294Fossil815 1,001 970 824 597 161 Fossil195 223 227 200 162Coal196 341 334 265 103 50 Coal37 58 55 44 17Lignite98 83 55 24 4Lignite17 13 9 4 1Gas406 515 527 510 485 155 Gas98 126 140 140 142Oil87 32 28 13 05 0100 Oil32 13 12 6740 0320Diesel28 28 26 13Diesel11 12 11Nuclear44 45 40 30 12 Nuclear60 60 50Hydrogen0 0 0 0 0HydrogenRenewables166 285 579 1,511 2,881 4,144 Renewables55 102 240 605 1,130Hydro136 175 208 240 263 286 Hydro48 58 69 80 88Wind1009 54 173 473 910 1,275 Wind1003300 30 90 210 372of which wind offshore07 2 20 51 97 of which wind offshore064500 1 9 14PV77 273 546 807 PV59 199 391Biomass15 20 36 52 63 Biomass4 7 11Geothermal20 33 78 202 403 553 Geothermal12 34 72Solar thermal00 20 16 235 590 928 Solar thermal42 64 171Ocean energy7 52 117 232 Ocean energy12 27Distribution losses82 112 111 119 116 76 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 1 35 151 421 789Own consumption electricity48 74 91 146 215 302 Share of fluctuating RES0% 11% 32% 52% 61%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 9 77 412 719 RES share (domestic generation) 22% 31% 51% 75% 87%Final energy consumption (electricity) 895 1,145 1,377 2,019 2,746 3,205Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 1 61 257 798 1,573 2,314Share of fluctuating RES0.1% 4.6% 16.2% 33.7% 45.1% 53.8%table 12.133: non oecd asia: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 16% 21% 36% 64% 83% 96%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 22 105 325 666 1,117 PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040Total32,518 36,356 39,633 43,696 46,926Fossil23,050 25,819 26,346 23,192 16,932table 12.130: non oecd asia: heat supplyHard coal3,939 5,210 5,290 4,313 2,55620092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite1,719 1,536 1,122 548 37Natural gas6,757 8,494 9,101 9,152 8,387Crude oil10,634 10,579 10,833 9,179 5,9522015PJ/a1.40District heating0 99 177Fossil fuels0 21 14Biomass0 38 81Solar collectors0 20 39Geothermal0 21 42Heat from CHP35 301 424Fossil fuels35 252 275Biomass000 38 89Geothermal11 60Hydrogen0 0Direct heating 1)10,361 11,505 12,429Fossil fuels5,184 6,128 6,549Biomass5,173 5,075 4,760Solar collectors400 220 695Geothermal 2)82 424Hydrogen0 0Total heat supply 1)10,395 11,905 13,029Fossil fuels5,219 6,400 6,839Biomass5,173 5,151 4,930Solar collectors400 240 734Geothermal 1)114 526Hydrogen0 0RES share49.8% 46% 48%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 167 5051) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015 2020Condensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDiesel542164951946722608248762382322570242482392020Combined heat & power production 41 42 43Coal34 34 32Lignite402 422 362GasOilCO2 emissions power generationLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversion(incl. CHP public)Coal99194921,51467%36213635154911558319881241471,69375%4451553796159865028251245421,70876%4661573945761146122741,046table 12.131: non oecd asia: co2 emissionsPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public1,1281.52101,1941.4591352121698190896434266196013,2666,0284,3131,8971,028014,5146,4744,7481,9781,314055%1,3002030432183192119105929128149121221238201,37761%417141316436691,3071.11,60059232841481571,262526419317014,0484,4003,5653,5912,25523715,9024,9294,2673,7392,72923769%2,34420402527031750463110520315813227483637%289108154255311,3920.62,8551,29506093373501,535595508433013,6381,7192,8914,7024,00232316,4682,3144,0085,0384,78432386%3,49520509008016840640774072127812%15136731171,4450.23,923NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal4858,983490357,4441,041027.6%0200924,05921,5574,8874,672174319200.7%6,8501,395226802,0911,1331,38708350015.5%9,8201,8192952402191,25343046,070064.9%7,46334.6%2,5032,0344571149110,0466301942707,7261,225127.7%2,719201527,41824,7385,2784,94619610234702.1%8,5951,7923843091012,4501,2491,7729287853017.5%10,8652,29849382472181,2676731286,1712963.2%8,48434.3%2,6802,1704822743612,8507496231,0697,7322,6522532.4%4,715202029,87226,9835,8735,11021734817664227.2%9,6662,0947634562402,4761,3222,049209879180023.5%11,4442,6879791311022131,2307754865,73119165.4%10,18137.7%2,8892,2825208732720,1778641,7033,8077,9885,62718746.2%11,238203033,05029,7856,1734,12322571890958019823.1%10,8472,5911,6559736311,8008802,555678847523040.0%12,7653,7682,4072342151501,1107601,2205,14438073.4%15,12450.8%3,2662,54742529413129,8629473,2777,8296,98510,40342163.6%19,056table 12.134: non oecd asia: final energy demand204034,91131,2685,8351,9562079641,8811,55382654.8%11,5693,0692,5341,4041,0077294972,3711,3777801,08625760.5%13,8654,9374,075403390488377062,2153,77694382.2%21,59469.1%3,6432,47736480120501,6000060100964782557795295536310370131204591,66345104301001,619964782557713107295531,10867%97%205047,0388,8561,75403,8643,239038,1821,0304,59011,2856,24814,19483581.2%26,843205036,03632,0175,7077962779372,0962,0181,60178.8%11,7583,5163,3851,9731,56601151,4401,8606741,83934082.1%14,5525,9245,70478377101833512,8422,7671,70194.7%27,93287.2%4,0192,0903221,60832712glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - NON OECD ASIA

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKnon oecd asia: investment & employmenttable 12.135: non oecd asia: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050Reference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyEnergy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy196,382167,20113,544105,7268,5728,17631,18300107,256495,0288,91084,366131,005116,950113,70533,9526,139204,588192,00017,109115,06323,91510,25625,6560046,1241,030,46117,25865,821171,115204,167183,902360,10228,098185,460211,59824,186111,63839,56911,38524,8200038,8651,565,46622,92955,696332,084284,932250,600588,40030,827228,801258,52928,344136,61457,65914,09921,8130032,0721,834,48421,69479,028318,849342,188281,908732,28858,5292011-2050815,230829,32883,183469,041129,71543,916103,47200224,3174,925,44070,791284,910953,053948,236830,1151,714,743123,5932011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR20,38120,7332,08011,7263,2431,0982,587005,608123,1361,7707,12323,82623,70620,75342,8693,09012table 12.136: non oecd asia: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $Reference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumpsEnergy [R]evolution scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps2011-2020168,299163,85101,3383,110332,08175,681107,24086,10363,0572021-2030139,237136,66001,901677327,4055,72186,766153,64781,2712031-204040,89334,03703,6163,240817,62112,101361,002284,996159,5232041-205031,27525,84404,0631,368981,79823,854382,479273,206302,2592011-2050379,704360,392010,9188,3942,458,905117,357937,486797,952606,1102011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR9,4939,010027321061,4732,93423,43719,94915,153glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - NON OECD ASIAtable 12.137: non oecd asia: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBSREFERENCE20102015 2020 2030By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs230821251,33983.81,860404537199007531015.3117.8-0.1192.81,860206831251,184115.91,71451446613721600848.0114.5-0.0122.11,714196801321,156149.61,713582451156645358717133.9-0.08.7-1,713141651291,006114.71,4556153865.944834674165.72.6--4.60.01,455ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 20304921841251,11763.51,9822384794.81,2605508012826227155.3171221,9825552271569788.51,9251734314.21,31745754124276334811247661,9253852031736682.01,4311132953.41,01931047159164221066.8171321,431328

china: scenario results data12© JACQUES DESCLOITRES, MODIS LAND RAPID RESPONSE TEAM, NASA/GSFCglossary & appendix | APPENDIX - CHINAimage YANGTZE RIVER, CENTRAL CHINA.329

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKchina: reference scenariotable 12.138: china: electricity generationTWh/aPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy20093,6402,826082170702616270000020155,6244,11101721601495386823521710020207,2754,9840239160520921,079318152521020309,6076,48304251307231671,2494927549321204011,5387,70206891008202381,35562913084632205012,5698,0200962809183011,461765170119844table 12.141: china: installed capacityGWPower plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindof which wind offshorePVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy2009899629033150111197130000020151,387877065150211326611511500020201,7071,028086150681732015052201020302,1951,30501291309430370222233012020402,5731,507019111010741402266374512120502,7791,542025380120504333054662131Combined heat & power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy95950000000953,7353,0202,921082170700645616270020001781560220100301485,8024,4774,267019416014901,176868235217531002662140480410562107,5415,5015,198028616052001,5211,07931815259521042529201160162011730810,0327,3286,775054113072301,9811,249492754918352158336101790403017940412,1218,9418,063086710082002,3601,3556291308427993274043002320734024149913,3099,6518,45001,1948091802,7401,4617651701193741244Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducersTotal generationFossilCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearHydrogenRenewablesHydroWindof which wind offshorePVBiomassGeothermalSolar thermalOcean energy21210000000219206986500331501102121971300100041330700007341,428997910072150210410266115115130005944014010013461,7661,1871,0720100150680511320150522180109559033030026682,2901,5381,364016213094065737022223303212012771048070039882,7001,8291,578023911010707654022663745481211598506101310541052,9381,9491,6270314801200869433305466263231Distribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)18643903,10625359504,95030872606,50238891408,7204551,072010,5784981,174011,612Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)141%23%1309%29%17210%29%25211%29%31112%28%36813%30%12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - CHINAFluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RESRES share (domestic generation)table 12.139: china: heat supplyPJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.table 12.140: china: co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)270.7%17%20092,5992,5871200686800028,73421,5076,82230110431,40124,1626,833301104023.1%20093,2143,1560352301161160003,3293,271035236,875306%1,7945474783,2148421,3425.12534.4%20%20152,7582,675830061961720034,54127,4366,53244013237,91830,7286,617440132019.0%20154,3984,29707922021218902204,6104,4860101229,067404%2,3996388064,4327921,3776.63434.5%20%20202,9182,763156001,0621,042164036,40429,6496,07550417740,38433,4546,246504181017.2%20205,0824,945011522026522504005,3475,17001552210,287458%2,6026509765,1359251,4077.35425.4%20%20302,5102,259251001,5081,4385712036,38830,8894,64563022440,40634,5864,953631237014.4%20306,3526,139019617031824707006,6706,38602661712,007535%2,57164913796,4399701,4528.37155.9%19%20402,0921,862230001,7311,58912021035,53630,9503,56575526739,35934,4013,916755288012.6%20406,9996,690029613034926408507,3486,95403821312,772569%2,47459516527,1109421,4748.78886.7%21%20501,5401,355185002,1551,89721740034,52930,1963,19584229538,22433,4493,597842336012.5%20506,7006,31803739037528309207,0756,6010465912,492557%2,34752719356,8308521,4688.5table 12.142: china: primary energy demandPJ/aTotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal200996,01383,97865,40802,78315,78776511,2702,217973028,57976011.7%200960,36955,5036,8166,63116521172001.1%28,5657,3411,2681,497313,9322,0693,72300304.5%20,1233,72464379123,1172,4781,2243018,4226846.9%10,78219.4%4,8673,1833621,3222015126,467111,50583,76505,71022,0301,62613,3363,1278485038,716142010.5%201580,15574,14911,54211,188201152194401.4%39,31411,7892,3891,9904919,5452,3253,66010306.2%23,2935,8131,178905273,1032,7122,5484407,6858840.4%12,01916.2%6,0063,9284461,6312020145,111124,86292,10507,46925,2875,67114,5783,8851,1446038,735212010.0%table 12.143: china: final energy demand202090,80784,36514,04213,546231683046101.6%45,03615,2513,0752,40110221,2442,5283,60810407.1%25,2877,8511,5831,012522,7532,8723,1135037,06412036.9%12,73315.1%6,4414,2134791,7502030169,614145,811102,062012,58531,1657,88515,9184,4981,7718278,49232829.4%2030104,02597,17120,10119,08910138153010502.4%49,78520,0043,9502,37918120,2112,4574,72820508.3%27,28510,8602,1441,065982,0532,6264,5576295,33915630.7%12,98913.4%6,8544,4835101,8622040181,344155,636104,219017,06334,3558,95116,7574,8792,2631,0858,09342899.2%2040112,796105,79024,31322,78522055575214602.9%52,90523,9044,6552,24520718,6602,3305,75820509.2%28,57213,4242,6141,0271001,0262,2325,8237534,09819027.1%13,32512.6%7,0064,5825211,9032050181,526153,72496,223020,13537,36610,01717,7845,2592,7561,3057,950499169.8%2050118,593111,66528,53226,65330665292219012.9%53,90026,0415,3602,11123616,8322,1186,788306010.4%29,23314,8413,0551,0551081121,8386,6608393,67321527.0%14,33612.8%6,9284,5315151,8821) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public330

china: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.144: china: electricity generationtable 12.147: china: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030Power plants3,640 5,322 6,357 7,627 8,746 9,240 Power plants899 1,267 1,588 2,088Coal2,826 3,881 4,212 3,850 2,441 28 Coal629 776 823 755Lignite0 0 0 0 0 0 Lignite0 0 0 0Gas82 138 199 192 85 52 Gas33 50 66 56Oil17 10 50 00 00 000 Oil15 90 50 00Diesel0 0Diesel0Nuclear70 149 250 200 146Nuclear11 21 33 26Biomass2 39 44 55 34 31 Biomass1 10 8 10Hydro616 812 990 1,150 1,340 1,460 Hydro197 249 294 341Wind27 265 498 1,200 2,148 3,134 Wind13 130 234 517of which wind offshore00000 2 35 190 357 519 of which wind offshore00000 1 11 57PV25 95 365 1,014 1,525 PV22 83 221Geothermal210 8 97 313 512 Geothermal010 1 16Solar thermal power plants55 482 1,115 1,858 Solar thermal power plants42 138Ocean energy2 35 110 640 Ocean energy1 9Combined heat & power plants 95 219 429 955 1,467 1,772 Combined heat & power production 21 53 98 220Coal95 137 190 302 265 52 Coal21 29 39 61Lignite000000 0 0 0 0 0 Lignite000000 0 0 0Gas47 113 384 636 721 Gas16 35 112Oil0 0 0 0 0 Oil0800 0 0Biomass34 123 234 432 611 Biomass23 42Geothermal00 20 36 115 310 Geothermal00 60Hydrogen0 19 78 HydrogenCHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers0 34 164 505 834 993 Main activity producers0 8 39 120Autoproducers95 185 265 450 633 779 Autoproducers21 45 59 100Total generation3,735 5,541 6,786 8,582 10,213 11,012 Total generation920 1,320 1,686 2,308Fossil3,020 4,213 4,719 4,728 3,427 853 Fossil698 880 968 984Coal2,921 4,018 4,402 4,152 2,706 80 Coal650 805 862 816Lignite0 0 0 0 0 0 Lignite0 0 0 0Gas82 185 312 576 721 773 Gas33 65 102 168Oil17 10 50 00 00 000 Oil15 90 50 00Diesel0 0Diesel0Nuclear70 149 250 200 146Nuclear11 21 33 26Hydrogen0 0 0 0 19 78 Hydrogen0 0 0 0Renewables645 1,179 1,817 3,654 6,621 10,081 Renewables212 420 685 1,298Hydro616 812 990 1,150 1,340 1,460 Hydro197 249 294 341Wind27 265 498 1,200 2,148 3,134 Wind13 130 234 517of which wind offshore002000 2 35 190 357 519 of which wind offshore001000 1 11 57PV25 95 365 1,014 1,525 PV22 83 221Biomass73 167 290 466 642 Biomass18 31 51Geothermal210 10 133 428 822 Geothermal010 2 22Solar thermal55 482 1,115 1,858 Solar thermal42 138Ocean energy2 35 110 640 Ocean energy1 9Distribution losses186 213 221 252 208 203 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 14 152 317 746Own consumption electricity439 497 515 468 312 187 Share of fluctuating RES1% 11% 19% 32%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 6 55 241 556 RES share (domestic generation) 23% 32% 41% 56%Final energy consumption (electricity) 3,106 4,827 6,038 7,797 9,436 10,041Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 27 290 595 1,600 3,272 5,299Share of fluctuating RES0.7% 5.2% 8.8% 18.6% 32.0% 48.1%table 12.148: china: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 17% 21% 27% 43% 65% 92%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 118 464 1,292 2,324 3,323 PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030Total96,013 120,947 129,656 130,468Fossil83,978 103,899 106,212 93,385table 12.145: china: heat supplyHard coal65,408 78,814 78,801 66,16520092020 2030 2040 2050Lignite0 0 0 0Natural gas2,783 6,100 8,137 10,004Crude oil15,787 18,985 19,274 17,216PJ/a2015CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)5.1 6.00 7676.11,703District heating2,599 3,321 3,566Fossil fuels2,587 3,161 3,103Biomass12 133 214Solar collectors00 23 214Geothermal3 36Heat from CHP68 775 1,653Fossil fuels68 645 1,166Biomass000 130 477Geothermal00 11Hydrogen0Direct heating 1)28,734 33,051 33,087Fossil fuels21,507 24,705 24,049Biomass6,822 7,497 7,363Solar collectors301 605 985Geothermal 2)104 244 690Hydrogen0 0 0Total heat supply 1)31,401 37,147 38,307Fossil fuels24,162 28,512 28,317Biomass6,833 7,759 8,054Solar collectors301 628 1,199Geothermal 1)104 248 737Hydrogen0 0 0RES share23.1% 23% 26%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 771 2,0781) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015 2020Condensation power plants 3,214 4,015 4,230Coal3,156 3,942 4,137Lignite0 0 0Gas35 59 85Oil23 14 70Diesel0 0Combined heat & power production 116 218 291Coal116 167 200Lignite000 0 0Gas51 92Oil0 0CO2 emissions power generationLignite0 0 0Gas35 110 177Oil & diesel23 14 7(incl. CHP public)Coal3,3293,2714,2334,1094,5214,337CO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)6,875306%1,7945474783,2148421,3428,300370%2,1825706844,0428221,3778,584383%2,2164848054,3147651,407table 12.146: china: co2 emissions1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public2,9252,2232343221463,9622,816991155029,21718,5606,7421,9611,955036,10423,5987,9672,2832,256035%4,30320303,7303,64708300467255021204,1973,903029407,531336%1,8573658103,9465531,4525.24,4762,6469442917946175,5343,3141,6115387025,6398,1376,7345,7664,9703233,81912,3958,6376,5606,12510263%5,54020402,1572,12103600483193029002,6402,314032604,122184%7801694462,4123161,4742.88,6504,12005361,5242,0606,0492,3791,8801,55124020,8522,0505,5336,1526,81430331,0214,4297,9497,67610,42454386%7,20320504222020003163402820358560302086038%25250273225611,4680.611,631Nuclear765Renewables11,270Hydro2,217Wind97Solar302Biomass8,579Geothermal/ambient heat76Ocean energy0RES share11.7%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal200960,36955,5036,8166,63116521172001.1%28,5657,3411,2681,497313,9322,0693,72300304.5%20,1233,72464379123,1172,4781,2243018,4226846.9%10,78219.4%4,8673,1833621,3221,62615,4232,92495672710,559257012.7%5,543201576,70470,7989,8669,494191541984202.0%37,64111,3669672,55918017,0321,8374,484842641504.0%23,2915,8132,6881,059583,0962,5571,5225208,57115351.5%13,69819.3%5,9063,6274391,8402,72820,7163,5651,7932,03612,422894716.0%15,465table 12.149: china: final energy demand202083,76077,49812,00111,1712248830682154.8%41,27814,1661,3283,26558817,0721,3764,54717554712906.7%24,2197,2664,4111,3902323,1081,6591,5748108,05335957.2%17,20422.2%6,2613,7074652,0892,18234,9014,1414,3217,93512,9595,42112626.7%39,133203086,73380,16914,06211,210508051,85679014111.8%41,76817,2153,6654,5261,21412,7255334,356602979832017.5%24,3398,9987,4971,9105172,4468251,2931,3596,82668169.4%25,82732.2%6,5643,5714882,50520402,616498027001963978459954251203283235501710751941831402,9397505530198001942,166397845995428169203281,41648%74%2040119,24255,97835,47209,81710,6881,59361,6714,8257,73420,24514,16114,31039651.7%62,054204083,45176,84512,7636,156761,1064,9083,18251736.2%40,53419,0059,6105,2902,5463,8493713,4583,4231,9473,1573451.1%23,5489,9589,1662,4921,2838412557812,3435,88399583.5%44,99958.6%6,6063,3964912,71920502,949902100054331,13913380383295161378170188010750152161623,327236270209000153,0764331,1391338031121332951612,10363%92%2050104,68919,2034,33407,5867,283085,4865,25711,28429,88813,26323,4902,30481.6%76,747205078,44072,43312,6123,725841,0286,8866,30489064.6%37,55719,06416,9296,0564,6864963121,3383,7062,1804,08631984.9%22,2639,8579,5473,7363,0200753472,4464,2301,57293.5%60,84284.0%6,0082,9084472,65333112glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - CHINA

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKchina: investment & employmenttable 12.150: china: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-20502011-20502011-2050AVERAGEPER YEARReference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy936,064746,99544,370450,918195,60446,1364,2995,61851764,754504,81252,976257,219171,36014,5963,6604,648353667,921566,27383,543195,611236,05739,9925,9084,1531,009686,936784,06683,985479,671177,71826,6935,4759,5459793,055,6752,602,146264,8731,383,419780,739127,41719,34223,9642,39276,39265,0546,62234,58519,5183,18548459960Energy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy515,5401,320,520127,539361,317332,908167,82518,240310,7601,932230,4011,802,60787,463246,561501,949191,641159,943592,42722,623112,7142,434,956215,787288,897760,645456,537311,016362,69739,376105,6233,567,412169,254495,708857,503417,365438,486942,105246,991964,2789,125,495600,0441,392,4822,453,0041,233,367927,6852,207,990310,92224,107228,13715,00134,81261,32530,83423,19255,2007,773table 12.151: china: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $2011-20202021-20302031-20402041-20502011-20502011-2050AVERAGEPER YEARReference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps64,83111,127013,56140,14362,6289,9281816,43836,24445,3160012,38932,92733,2090010,48322,726205,98421,0551852,870132,0415,15052601,3223,301Energy [R]evolution scenario12RenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps506,783169,08330,726115,415191,558528,39828,65284,624168,188246,9342,093,55399,461592,960935,744465,3881,821,29545,720911,988312,668550,9194,950,028342,9161,620,2981,532,0151,454,798123,7518,57340,50738,30036,370glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - CHINAtable 12.152: china: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBS20102015By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs1,7259304785,318-8,4515,9692232312,0288023814271371.91.30.0425818.68,4518683945043,730-5,4963,9722231851,116563306161441.03.70.03333.05,496REFERENCE2020 20305712805392,842-4,2333,010213101908486224138230.72.10.11297.24,2333391594291,836-2,7621,8943025351227515156110.50.80.16162.42,762ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 20308837024953,957-6,0383,618250402,13073327043837081622.1121266,0385144445543,229-4,7412,725263181,735662197338104161627.2179714,7414993904591,888-3,2351,42826291,53645416831419522836.2220753,235332

oecd asia oceania: scenario results data12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD ASIA OCEANIA© NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROSimage ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF NEW ZEALAND’S SOUTH ISLAND, FAREWELL SPIT STRETCHES 30 KILOMETERS EASTWARD INTO THE TASMAN SEA FROM THE CAPEFAREWELL MAINLAND. AN INTRICATE WETLAND ECOSYSTEM FACES SOUTH TOWARD GOLDEN BAY. ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE, THE SPIT IS PROTECTED BY SEVERALKILOMETERS OF MUDFLATS, WHICH ARE ALTERNATELY EXPOSED AND INUNDATED WITH THE TIDAL RHYTHMS OF THE OCEAN. THE WETLANDS OF FAREWELL SPIT ARE ONTHE RAMSAR LIST OF WETLANDS OF INTERNATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.333

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd asia oceania: reference scenario12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD ASIA OCEANIAtable 12.153: oecd asia oceania: electricity generation table 12.156: oecd asia oceania: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Power plants1,801 1,976 2,092 2,239 2,310 2,313 Power plants422 462 491 528 558 570Coal537 597 619 685 668 650 Coal82 89 91 104 102 100Lignite137 145 150 85 55 40 Lignite29 31 33 18 11 8Gas429 473 506 476 524 579 Gas106 130 155 161 181 200Oil106 71 43 33 33 28 Oil52 40 27 20 21 19Diesel6 5 5 5 4 3 Diesel3.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.0Nuclear428 483 528 650 650 590 Nuclear70 75 80 96 94 86Biomass24 29 33 43 51 57 Biomass4 5 6 7 8 10Hydro114 128 140 144 148 155 Hydro67 68 70 72 72 70Wind904800 24 36 66 95 110 Wind40 10 14 24 33 37of which wind offshore29940 4 10 25 35 of which wind offshore0.7 1.4 3.2 8 10PV12 23 30 35 PV2.6 6.4 8.6 16 21 25Geothermal11 13 22 27 Geothermal1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 3.3 4.0Solar thermal power plants90 15 27 35 Solar thermal power plants0.0 1.7 2.7 3.4 5.4 6.4Ocean energy1 3 5 Ocean energy0 0 0 1.0 2.1 3.2Combined heat & power plants 51 57 64 78 87 94 Combined heat & power production 11 12 13 16 18 19Coal36 36 46 35 33 33 Coal0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8LigniteLignite3.1 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.7Gas35 39 45 58 66 71 Gas5.6 6.3 7.3 10.5 12.6 13.7Oil5200 5300 4410 4710 3930 2 Oil1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5Biomass11 Biomass000 0.7 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.4Geothermal40 Geothermal00 00 00 00 0.6HydrogenHydrogen0CHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers22 27 30 34 38 40 Main activity producers6.0 6.7 7.0 6.8 7.4 7.7Autoproducers28 30 34 44 49 54 Autoproducers5.2 5.5 6.0 8.7 10.2 11.0Total generation1,851 2,034 2,156 2,317 2,397 2,408 Total generation433 474 504 543 576 589Fossil1,263 1,344 1,382 1,354 1,359 1,379 Fossil283 305 321 320 333 345Coal540 600 622 688 671 653 Coal83 90 92 104 103 101Lignite143 151 156 90 58 43 Lignite32 34 36 19 12 9Gas464 512 552 534 590 650 Gas111 137 162 172 194 214Oil110 76 47 37 36 30 Oil53 41 28 21 21 19Diesel6 5 5 5 4 3 Diesel3.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.0Nuclear428 483 528 650 650 590 Nuclear70 75 80 96 94 86Hydrogen0 0 0 0 0 0 Hydrogen0 0 0 0 0 0Renewables160 207 245 313 388 439 Renewables80 93 103 127 148 158Hydro114 128 140 144 148 155 Hydro67 68 70 72 72 70Wind904 24 36 66 95 110 Wind40 10 14 24 33 37of which wind offshore29 4 10 25 35 of which wind offshore0.7 1.4 3.2 7.6 10.0PV12 23 30 35 PV2.6 6.4 8.6 16.4 21.4 25.0Biomass26 31 36 50 60 68 Biomass4.5 5.6 6.5 8.7 10.5 11.9Geothermal800 10 11 14 25 31 Geothermal1.4 1.6 1.7 2.1 3.7 4.6Solar thermal40 90 15 27 35 Solar thermal00 1.7 2.7 3.4 5.4 6.4Ocean energy1 3 5 Ocean energy0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.2Distribution losses89 96 101 103 104 105 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 7 17 23 41 57 65Own consumption electricity121 130 137 140 141 143 Share of fluctuating RES2% 4% 4% 8% 10% 11%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 0 0 0 0 RES share (domestic generation) 19% 20% 21% 23% 26% 27%Final energy consumption (electricity) 1,637 1,805 1,916 2,072 2,151 2,158Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 13 33 48 90 128 150Share of fluctuating RES0.7% 1.6% 2.2% 3.9% 5.3% 6.2% table 12.157: oecd asia oceania: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 9% 10% 11% 14% 16% 18%PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050table 12.154: oecd asia oceania: heat supplyTotal36,076 38,051 38,861 39,437 38,888 37,460Fossil29,906 31,016 31,104 29,882 28,707 27,5482009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Hard coal7,692 8,775 9,066 9,262 8,590 7,908Lignite1,544 1,623 1,654 945 598 41032 21 Natural gas6,019 6,591 6,886 6,970 7,568 8,02018 12 Crude oil14,651 14,027 13,498 12,706 11,951 11,20914 90000PJ/aDistrict heatingFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermalHeat from CHPFossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalHydrogenDirect heating 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)Total heat supply 1)Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal 2)HydrogenRES share(including RES electricity)1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.table 12.155: oecd asia oceania: co2 emissionsMILL t/aCondensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselCombined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilCO2 emissions power generation(incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public334382116001771734006,6376,21631874286,8516,411338742906.4%200985846915217163434611125892475163183712,042130%30125342587618720110.2352015001891778407,2156,77434865287,4396,970372653206.3%201594253316120342336610145977539171216502,148136%34526440796117120410.63218140019818111607,3996,94437157287,6297,143396573406.4%202093953816720525337710164975545176221332,152137%35827039195917320510.530171300221189191307,6287,06144196297,8797,268473964207.8%2030880566941962033776204917573101216262,035129%35427636389914420410.0246197252407,6697,018500121307,9477,2335391215409.0%204082652661217202366423386353265241251,929123%3382783328441361999.7270204293707,5606,836554138327,8517,05259213869010.2%205078548942235162367324282149645260201,823116%3202712998011321939.5NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES sharePJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal4,6651,506412328771126304.2%200923,68620,2166,0405,878541988800.4%6,4312,11518311351,0531,4381,3940312607.9%7,7443,691320966642,0281,6947485136.4%1,0315.1%3,4713,38061295,2651,7704628513678829914.7%201524,67421,2075,8045,60967231051100.6%7,2932,524256115151,6641,3841,2601339608.5%8,1103,87139310416882,0131,8636493137.1%1,2315.8%3,4683,37761305,7651,99250412918485032515.1%202025,08321,6155,6105,38579261191400.7%7,5622,683305117161,9101,3351,1473361609.1%8,4444,09646610917842,0441,9455499137.7%1,3816.4%3,4683,37861307,0882,4675192363171,02436756.3%203025,44022,0005,2434,954117281441900.9%7,7332,830383119221,8511,2441,26434147010.7%9,0254,48460612726752,0482,06393121149.5%1,7377.9%3,4403,35160297,0923,0895333424721,162569117.9%table 12.158: oecd asia oceania: final energy demand204025,28821,8804,8524,491169281632601.1%7,6762,865464130301,7351,1151,36144617012.6%9,3524,71576314236322,0852,1061171391511.4%2,0919.6%3,4083,31960296,4383,4745583965791,263660189.3%205024,65221,2544,3954,028166291723101.4%7,5072,836517134361,4861,1131,42445027014.2%9,3534,7628681514392,0112,1231341471712.9%2,33611.0%3,3983,3096029

oecd asia oceania: energy [r]evolution scenariotable 12.159: oecd asia oceania: electricity generation table 12.162: oecd asia oceania: installed capacityTWh/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Power plants1,801 1,922 1,869 1,999 2,077 1,990 Power plants422 491 528 721 857 892Coal537 550 392 318 121 00 Coal82 79 56 47 30 00Lignite137 130 75 30 0Lignite29 28 17 6 0Gas429 671 650 474 372 117 Gas106 148 148 144 133 78Oil106 98 40 21 030 030 Oil52 49 25 13 0209 0209Diesel6 3 3 30Diesel3.9 2 2 207Nuclear428 115 113Nuclear70 18 17Biomass24 36 38 41 53 53 Biomass4 6 6Hydro114 132 150 159 163 180 Hydro67 70 75 79 79 82Wind904800 75 195 470 630 710 Wind40 32 75 171 221 239of which wind offshore0 5 60 140 200 of which wind offshore0 2 19 42 57PV60 100 260 390 490 PV2.6 43 71 186 279 350Geothermal26 54 99 135 143 Geothermal1.4 484 8 15 20 21Solar thermal power plants20 40 80 125 170 Solar thermal power plants0.0 11 18 25 31Ocean energy5 19 45 85 125 Ocean energy016 34 59 79Combined heat & power plants 51 68 124 162 204 245 Combined heat & power production 11 14 23 33 45 51Coal36 35 24 00 00 00 Coal0.7 1381100 12 00 00 0050LigniteLignite3.1Gas35 49 90 96 78 18 Gas5.615 17 18Oil5200 4520 4 1 0 0 Oil1.4 1410 0 0Biomass17 52 97 162 Biomass00013 23 35Geothermal61 11 25 57 Geothermal20 41 92Hydrogen2 4 8 HydrogenCHP by producerCHP by producerMain activity producers22 30 52 68 88 110 Main activity producers6.0 7 10 13 21 25Autoproducers28 38 72 94 116 135 Autoproducers5.2 7 13 20 24 27Total generation1,851 1,990 1,993 2,161 2,281 2,235 Total generation433 505 551 754 902 943Fossil1,263 1,514 1,260 943 574 138 Fossil283 318 265 229 183 85Coal540 553 394 318 121 00 Coal83 79 57 47 30 00Lignite143 135 79 30 0Lignite32 31 18 6 0Gas464 720 740 570 450 135 Gas111 156 162 161 151 83Oil110 102 44 22 0304 0308 Oil53 50 26 13 0201 0202Diesel6 3 3 302Diesel3.9 2 2 200Nuclear428 115 113 Nuclear70 18 17Hydrogen0 0 1Hydrogen0 0 0Renewables160 361 619 1,217 1,703 2,089 Renewables80 169 268 524 718 856Hydro114 132 150 159 163 180 Hydro67 70 75 79 79 82Wind904 75 195 470 630 710 Wind40 32 75 171 221 239of which wind offshore0 5 60 140 200 of which wind offshore0 2 19 42 57PV60 100 260 390 490 PV2.6 43 71 186 279 350Biomass26 41 55 93 150 215 Biomass4.5 7584 11 20 32 44Geothermal800 28 60 110 160 200 Geothermal1.4 9 17 24 31Solar thermal20 40 80 125 170 Solar thermal00 11 18 25 31Ocean energy5 19 45 85 125 Ocean energy16 34 59 79Distribution losses89 94 93 89 82 73 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 7 80 162 391 558 669Own consumption electricity121 120 118 114 105 93 Share of fluctuating RES2% 16% 29% 52% 62% 71%Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 11 98 199 314 RES share (domestic generation) 19% 33% 49% 70% 80% 91%Final energy consumption (electricity) 1,637 1,774 1,770 1,858 1,894 1,754Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 13 140 314 775 1,105 1,325Share of fluctuating RES0.7% 7.0% 15.8% 35.9% 48.4% 59.3%table 12.163: oecd asia oceania: primary energy demandRES share (domestic generation) 9%0 18% 31% 56% 75% 93%‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)43 176 384 589 763 PJ/a2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 205036,076 35,857 33,710 29,811 26,387 22,86629,906 30,880 26,203 18,154 10,959 4,899table 12.160: oecd asia oceania: heat supply7,692 7,737 5,902 4,195 1,777 60720092020 2030 2040 20501,544 1,375 803 300 0 06,019 8,467 8,791 7,517 5,846 2,30214,651 13,302 10,707 6,143 3,337 1,9902015PJ/a10.20District heating38 86Fossil fuels21 45Biomass16 41Solar collectors00 00GeothermalHeat from CHP177 198Fossil fuels173 174Biomass400 12Geothermal12Hydrogen0Direct heating 1)6,637 7,049Fossil fuels6,216 6,227Biomass318 494Solar collectors74 170Geothermal 2)28 158Hydrogen0Total heat supply 1)6,851 7,333Fossil fuels6,411 6,446Biomass338 547Solar collectors74 170Geothermal 1)29 170Hydrogen0 0RES share6.4% 12%(including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 1061) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumpsMILL t/a2009 2015Condensation power plantsCoalLignite858469152980491144Gas171 285Oil63 58Diesel4 2Combined heat & power production 34 36Coal6 68Lignite11Gas12 17Oil5 4CO2 emissions power generationLigniteGasOil & dieselCO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissionsIndustry 1)Other sectors 1)TransportPower generation 2)District heating & other conversion(incl. CHP public)Coal163183712,042130%301253425876187892475152302642,097133%2942463761,0001811,016497201table 12.161: oecd asia oceania: co2 emissionsPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public20410.351183938612305215493646,8105,46371032131607,2975,771845323354421%331202070834183258242465632475434689290291,697108%2582053337341672058.3454526142242105373941521538186,1993,4881,074775835267,1193,7821,4698809533447%760203049626233186132360035153226333221151,11771%1581192015161232045.59186482633722758593127278171175,4191,9851,1301,0451,168916,6602,1371,7451,2721,39810867%1,2872040241950144024100410283950186255635%868386257441992.81,37360402902427288347441363314,5065531,0761,2401,3712665,9936001,8081,4821,80629790%1,8582050460045021800180640062216410%23333951171930.91,659TotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oilNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermal/ambient heatOcean energyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)PJ/aTotal (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricityRES electricityHydrogenRES share TransportIndustryElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatHydrogenRES share IndustryOther SectorsElectricityRES electricityDistrict heatRES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermal/ambient heatRES share Other SectorsTotal RESRES shareNon energy useOilGasCoal4,6651,506412328771126304.2%0200923,68620,2166,0405,878541988800.4%6,4312,11518311351,0531,4381,3940312607.9%7,7443,691320966642,0281,6947485136.4%1,0315.1%3,4713,38061291,2553,7224762705661,4289641810.4%2,193201523,90220,6265,6005,175801981462704.0%6,9872,440443167391,0181,3611,4791144270014.4%8,0393,80069011431611,8191,8431591707314.0%2,35211.4%3,2763,16577341,2336,2745397021,0431,9551,9676818.6%5,147202022,74019,8365,1504,50516923921466236.1%6,9362,507778259945971,2941,55174534120023.1%7,7503,6401,13022181481,3341,77024734114925.1%3,86119.5%2,9042,415199289011,6575711,6922,5363,1633,53216239.1%9,619203020,87918,1664,2502,62822844574041620923.0%6,4872,4661,3883402302086371,3962596804732846.9%7,4293,4681,953562367224101,48451761535151.2%7,82743.1%2,7131,904376433015,4275862,2683,8013,6504,81530658.5%12,494table 12.164: oecd asia oceania: final energy demand204018,65316,1773,4501,0312104821,33799839051.3%5,8592,3221,733454397033792233469569410067.1%6,8683,1352,340764659022089271165049470.7%10,55465.2%2,4771,602418457017,9666472,5564,7763,6705,86944878.6%14,586205016,38714,1432,8504221703381,4221,32949874.8%5,1632,1301,99151850105431639256689529289.4%6,1302,7202,54294490806331384869354990.4%12,29186.9%2,2451,39137947533512glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD ASIA OCEANIA

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOKoecd asia oceania: investment & employmenttable 12.165: oecd asia oceania: total investment in power sectorMILLION $ 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050Reference scenarioConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energyEnergy [R]evolutionConventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy343,014126,63913,25948,89418,58412,7479,22122,6701,265172,649628,09531,35665,659107,995157,21996,708102,38266,776344,952111,53911,62048,74922,44315,0927,3334,4581,84476,766582,22340,04356,950165,970168,96061,68239,13149,487216,460132,44310,53444,44331,20611,56511,87120,0922,73262,777697,51560,56144,533190,739185,55973,99582,46059,669114,25085,85010,42718,87023,53211,9966,96411,2222,8382,940703,02473,05425,699190,901194,93481,63764,88471,9162011-20501,018,676456,47145,840160,95695,76651,40035,38958,4428,679315,1332,610,856205,013192,841655,604706,671314,021288,858247,8482011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR25,46711,4121,1464,0242,3941,2858851,4612177,87865,2715,1254,82116,39017,6677,8517,2216,19612table 12.166: oecd asia oceania: total investment in renewable heating only(EXCLUDING INVESTMENTS IN FOSSIL FUELS)MILLION $Reference scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumpsEnergy [R]evolution scenarioRenewablesBiomassGeothermalSolarHeat pumps2011-202026,15621,87706593,621280,71178,30119,22098,01685,1752021-203047,98421,275023,0263,683414,43077,64560,927161,028114,8302031-204015,9069,78305,678446425,93161,01561,380161,014142,5222041-205014,5169,143014,359877442,20345,63896,277172,770127,5182011-2050114,42562,078043,7218,6261,563,275262,599237,804592,829470,0442011-2050AVERAGEPER YEAR2,8611,55201,09321639,0826,5655,94514,82111,751glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - OECD ASIA OCEANIAtable 12.167: oecd asia oceania: total employmentTHOUSAND JOBSREFERENCE20102015 2020 2030By sectorConstruction and installationManufacturingOperations and maintenanceFuel supply (domestic)Coal and gas exportTotal jobsBy technologyCoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearTotal renewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermal powerSolar thermal powerOceanSolar - heatGeothermal & heat pumpTotal jobs562181942.42557764387534207.19.30.83.60.3--2554313891094.42586277457435245.95.90.62.30.2-0.032584714941215.72827377528038238.28.60.61.30.4-0.00328216810311916.22627177348039246.74.60.51.20.73.3-262ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION2015 2020 203018564891182.4458476449298642949748.38.8183414458201851011120.35003250453728327761065.78.1114015500159631241290.34772145443671272751725.17.47.93930477336

12glossary & appendix | APPENDIX337

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK12glossary & appendix | 2005-2012 DEVELOPMENT OF THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIOS2005 – 2012 developmentof energy [r]evolution scenariosGreenpeace published the first Energy [R]evolution scenario inMay 2005 for the EU-25 in conjunction with a 7-month long shiptour from Poland all the way down to Egypt. In five years the workhas developed significantly. The very first scenario was launched onboard of the ship with the support of former EREC Policy DirectorOliver Schäfer, the start of a long-lasting fruitful Energy[R]evolution collaboration between Greenpeace International andEREC. The German Aerospace Center’s Institute for TechnicalThermodynamics under Dr. Wolfram Krewitt’s leadership has beenthe scientific institution behind all published reports since then aswell. Between 2005 and 2009, these three very differentstakeholders managed to put together over 30 scenarios forcountries from all continents and published two editions of theGlobal Energy [R]evolution scenario which became a wellrespected,progressive, alternative energy blueprint. The work hasbeen translated into over 15 different languages including Chinese,Japanese, Arabic, Hebrew, Spanish, Thai and Russian.The concept of Energy [R]evolution scenario has been underconstant development ever since and today we are able tocalculate employment effects in parallel to the scenariodevelopment as well. The calculation program MESAP/PlaNethas been developed by software company seven2one and lots offeatures have been developed for this project. For the 2010edition, we developed a standardised report tool, which providesus with a “ready to print” executive summary for each regionand/or country we calculate and finally all regions interact witheach other, so the global scenario is set up like a cascade. Theseinnovative developments serve for an ever improving quality,faster development times and more user-friendly outputs.In the past years, a team of about 20 scientists for all regionsacross the world formed to review regional and or country specificscenarios and to make sure that it has a basis within the region.In some cases Energy [R]evolution scenarios have been the firsteverpublished, long-term energy scenario for a country, like theTurkish scenario published in 2009. Since the first Global Energy[R]evolution scenario published in January 2007, we have doneside events on every single UNFCCC climate conference, countlessenergy conferences and panel debates. Over 200 presentations inmore than 30 languages always had one message in common.“The Energy Revolution is possible; it is needed and pays off forfuture generations!”Many high level meetings took place, for example on the 15thJuly 2009 when the Chilean President Michelle Bacheletattended our launch event for the Energy [R]evolution Chile.The Energy [R]evolution work is a corner-stone of theGreenpeace climate and energy work worldwide and we wouldlike to thank all involved stakeholders. Unfortunately, in October2009, Dr Wolfram Krewitt from DLR passed away far too earlyand left a huge gap for everybody. His energy and dedicationhelped to make the energy revolution project a true success story.Arthouros Zervos and Christine Lins from EREC have beeninvolved in this work from the very beginning and Sven Teske338from Greenpeace International heads this work since the firstdevelopment late 2004. The well-received layout of all Energy[R]evolution documents has been done – also from the verybeginning – from Tania Dunster and Jens Christiansen from“onehemisphere” in Sweden with enormous passions especially inthe final phase when the report goes to print.The third version of the report, published in June 2010 in Berlin,reached out the scientific community to a much larger extent. TheIPCC’s Special Report Renewables (SRREN) chose the Energy[R]evolution as one of the four benchmark scenarios for climatemitigation energy scenarios (discussed in this edition Chapter 4).That Energy [R]evolution was the most ambitious scenario:combining an uptake of renewable energies and energy efficiency,and put forwards the highest renewable energy share by 2050.However, this high share resulted in a very strict efficiencystrategy, and other scenarios actually had more renewables interms of Exajoule by the year 2050. Following the publication ofthe SRREN in May 2011 in Abu Dhabi, the ER became a widelyquoted energy scenario and is now part of many scientific debatesand referenced in numerous scientific peer-reviewed literatures.This new edition, the Energy [R]evolution 2012, takes intoaccount the significantly changed situation of the global energysector that has occurred in just two years. In Japan, theFukushima Nuclear disaster following the devastating tsunami inJapan, triggered a faster phase-out of nuclear power in severalcountries. A serious oil spill occurred at the Deepwater Horizondrilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, highlighting thedamage that can be done to eco-systems, and some countries areindicating new oil exploration in ever-more sensitive environmentslike the Arctic Circle. There is an increase in shale gas, which is aparticularly carbon-intensive way to obtain gas, and has requireda more detailed analysis where the gas use projection in theEnergy [R]evolution is coming from.In the renewable energy sector, there has been a faster costreduction in the photovoltaic and wind industries, creating earlierbreak-even points for these renewable energy investments. Newand more detailed analysis of renewable energy potential isavailable and there are new storage technologies available, whichcould change the proportions of energy input types, for example,reduce the need for bio energy to make up the greenhouse gasreduction targets of the model.Taking the above into account, this edition of the Energy[R]evolution includes:• Detailed energy demand and technology investment pathwaysfor power, heating and transport• Detailed employment calculations for all sectors• Detailed analysis of the needed fossil fuel infrastructure (gas,oil exploration and coal mining capacities)• Detailed market analysis of the current power plant market

image MINOTI SINGH AND HER SON AWAIT FORCLEAN WATER SUPPLY BY THE RIVERBANK INDAYAPUR VILLAGE IN SATJELLIA ISLAND: “WE DONOT HAVE CLEAN WATER AT THE MOMENT AND ONLYONE TIME WE WERE LUCKY TO BE GIVEN SOMERELIEF. WE ARE NOW WAITING FOR THEGOVERNMENT TO SUPPLY US WITH WATER TANKS”.© GP/PETER CATONoverview of the energy [r]evolutionpublications since 2005A Global Energy [R]evolution scenario has been published inseveral scientific and peer-review journals like “Energy Policy”.See below a selection of milestones from the Energy [R]evolutionwork between 2005 and June 2010.June 2005: First Energy Revolution Scenario for EU 25presented in Luxembourg for members of the EU’sEnvironmental Council.July – August 2005: National Energy Revolution scenarios forFrance, Poland and Hungary launched during an “Energyrevolution” ship tour with a sailing vessel across Europe.January 2007: First Global Energy revolution Scenario publishedparallel in Brussels and Berlin.April 2007: Launch of the Turkish translation from the Globalscenario.July 2007: Launch of Futu[r]e Investment – An analysis of theneeded global investment pathway for the Energy [R]evolutionscenarios.October 2008: Launch of the second edition of the Global Energy[R]evolution Report.December 2008: Launch of a concept for specific feed in-tariffmechanism to implement the Global Energy [R]evolution Reportin developing countries at a COP13 side event in Poznan, Poland.September 2009: Launch of the first detailed Job Analysis“Working for the Climate” – based on the global Energy[R]evolution report in Sydney/Australia.November 2009: Launch of “Renewable 24/7” a detailedanalysis for the needed grid infrastructure in order to implementthe Energy [R]evolution for Europe with 90% renewable powerin Berlin / Germany.June 2010: Launch of the third Global Energy [R]evolutionedition in Berlin / Germany.May 2011: The IPCC Special Report Renewable Energy(SRREN) published its find report in Abu Dhabi – the Energy[R]evolution 2010 has been chosen as one out of four benchmarkscenarios.June 2012: Launch of the fourth Global Energy [R]evolutionedition in Berlin / Germany.energy [r]evolution country analysis &launch dates• November 2007: Energy [R]evolution for Indonesia• January 2008: Energy [R]evolution for New Zealand• March 2008: Energy [R]evolution for Brazil• March 2008: Energy [R]evolution for China• June 2008: Energy [R]evolution for Japan• June 2008: Energy [R]evolution for Australia• August 2008: Energy [R]evolution for the Philippines• August 2008: Energy [R]evolution for Mexico• December 2008: Energy [R]evolution for the EU-27• March 2009: Energy [R]evolution for the USA• March 2009: Energy [R]evolution for India• April 2009: Energy [R]evolution for Russia• May 2009: Energy [R]evolution for Canada• June 2009: Energy [R]evolution for Greece• June 2009: Energy [R]evolution for Italy• July 2009: Energy [R]evolution for Chile• July 2009: Energy [R]evolution for Argentina• October 2009: Energy [R]evolution for South Africa• November 2009: Energy [R]evolution for Turkey• April 2010: Energy [R]evolution for Sweden• May 2011: Energy [R]evolution South Africa• September 2011: Energy [R]evolution Japan• September 2011: Energy [R]evolution Argentina• November 2011: Energy [R]evolution Hungary• April 2012: Energy [R]evolution for South Korea• June 2012: Energy [R]evolution for Czech Republic12glossary & appendix | OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SINCE 2005339

energy[r]evolutionGreenpeace is a global organisation that usesnon-violent direct action to tackle the mostcrucial threats to our planet’s biodiversity andenvironment. Greenpeace is a non-profitorganisation, present in 40 countries acrossEurope, the Americas, Africa, Asia and thePacific. It speaks for 2.8 million supportersworldwide, and inspires many millions more totake action every day. To maintain itsindependence, Greenpeace does not acceptdonations from governments or corporations butrelies on contributions from individual supportersand foundation grants. Greenpeace has beencampaigning against environmental degradationsince 1971 when a small boat of volunteers andjournalists sailed into Amchitka, an area west ofAlaska, where the US Government wasconducting underground nuclear tests. Thistradition of ‘bearing witness’ in a non-violentmanner continues today, and ships are animportant part of all its campaign work.Ottho Heldringstraat 5, 1066 AZAmsterdam, The Netherlandst +31 20 718 2000 f +31 20 718 2002sven.teske@greenpeace.orgwww.greenpeace.orgThe Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)is the voice of the global wind energy sector.GWEC works at highest internationalpolitical level to create better policyenvironment for wind power. GWEC’s missionis to ensure that wind power establisheditself as the answer to today’s energychallenges, producing substantialenvironmental and economic benefits. GWECis a member based organisation thatrepresents the entire wind energy sector. Themembers of GWEC represent over 1,500companies, organisations and institutions inmore than 70 countries, includingmanufacturers, developers, componentsuppliers, research institutes, national windand renewables associations, electricityproviders, financeand insurance companies.Rue d’Arlon 801040 Brussels, Belgiumt +32 2 213 1897 f+32 2 213 1890info@gwec.net www.gwec.netEuropean Renewable Energy Council (EREC)Created in April 2000, the EuropeanRenewable Energy Council (EREC) is theumbrella organisation of the Europeanrenewable energy industry, trade and researchassociations active in the sectors of bioenergy,geothermal, ocean, small hydro power, solarelectricity, solar thermal and wind energy.EREC thus represents the European renewableenergy industry with an annual turnover of€70 billion and employing 550,000 people.Renewable Energy House, 63-67 rue d’ArlonB-1040 Brussels, Belgiumt +32 2 546 1933 f+32 2 546 1934erec@erec.org www.erec.org© PLANETARY VISIONS LIMITEDimage SATELLITE IMAGERY OF ANTARCTICA (22.5W, 90.0S.) BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DATA FROM THREE EARTH-OBSERVATION SATELLITE SYSTEMS. A MOSAIC OF THOUSANDSOF IMAGES TAKEN BY NOAA POLAR ORBITER WEATHER SATELLITES WAS COMBINED WITH 10 YEARS OF OCEAN COLOUR OBSERVATIONS FROM NASA’S NIMBUS 7 AND IMAGES OFTHE POLAR ICE CAPS FROM THE US AIR FORCE DEFENSE METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE PROGRAM. front cover images SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE ARCTIC REGION (45.0E, 90.0N.)© PLANETARY VISIONS LIMITED, © MARKEL REDONDO/GREENPEACE, © FRANCISCO RIVOTTI/GREENPEACE.