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OR als Handwerkszeug des IT-Architekten<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong><br />

Jena, 28. Januar 2006<br />

Karlheinz Mohr<br />

Mgr of SSD/SSE Center of Competence IMT Germany<br />

Mgr of Architects IMT CEMAAS<br />

mohr@de.ibm.com<br />

Bertus G Eggen<br />

Executive IT Architect<br />

Information Technology Services – Service Delivery | © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

ertus Eggen<br />

xecutive IT Architect<br />

ember of IBM Academy of Technology<br />

Education<br />

1982-1989: Technische Universität Braunschweig; Diplom (Master) in Mathematics<br />

Career<br />

2000: Executive IT Architect<br />

1995: Senior IT Architect<br />

1994: Fo<strong>und</strong>ing member of ESM Knowledge Network's Core Team, responsable for<br />

research and development<br />

1990-1993: Support of VOLKSWAGEN regarding Application Development,<br />

Networking and Systems Management on UNIX and AIX<br />

1990: Joined IBM as Systems Engineer in Braunschweig, Germany<br />

1987-1990: "Grafik <strong>und</strong> Datenverarbeitung GbR", Owner of application development<br />

company (see also next section)<br />

Publications<br />

"Numerische Methoden im CAD" (“Numerical Methods in Computer Aided Design"),<br />

Vieweg<br />

"System Management Design Samples - A Management Summary", IBM Redbook<br />

"System Management Design Guidelines", IBM Redbook<br />

Key Engagements<br />

1997-2001: DKV (Deutsche Krankenversicherung, ITERGO), Cologne, Germany;<br />

Lead Architect/Project; Leader/Consulting Architect<br />

1997: Germany Stock Exchange, Frankfurt, Germany; Lead Architect/Project Leader<br />

1996: Daimler Benz Aerospace, Hamburg, Germany; Lead Architect/Project Leader<br />

1996: Boeing, Seattle, Washington, USA; Leading Architect/Mentor<br />

1993-1996: LIT (Landesamt <strong>für</strong> Informationstechnik), Berlin Germany; Leading<br />

Architect<br />

Recognition<br />

2000: Elected as Member, IBM Academy of Technology<br />

1999: Engagement Excellence Award, DKV Engagement, Cologne, Germany<br />

1998: Team Excellence Award, DKV Engagement, Cologne, Germany<br />

1995: Team Excellence Award, Fiscus Engagement, Hannover, Germany<br />

1995: Engagement Excellence Award, LIT Engagement, Berlin, Germany<br />

1994: Software ExcellenceAward, Systems Management Assessment Workshop<br />

Karlheinz Mohr<br />

Mgr of SSD/SSE IMT Germany & CEMAAS<br />

Business Unit Technical Leader<br />

Education<br />

Career<br />

1981-1986 Uni Heidelberg, Dipl.-Math<br />

1977-1980 Uni Hamburg, Versicherungs <strong>Mathematik</strong><br />

2001-2004 Competency&Professional Development Execeutive EMEA<br />

200-2001 Manager Fo<strong>und</strong>ation IBM Germany<br />

1998 Manager, Security Services and Systemsmanagement<br />

1994 Project Lead, Chemistry Applications<br />

1990 Speech Product Development Manager, ELBU<br />

1988, Research Staff meber at IBM TJ Watson Research Lab<br />

1986, Scientific Staff Member, IBM Heidelberg<br />

1981-1986 MOHR EDV -Arbeiten and IBM Science Center Heidelberg<br />

1979, 1980 Summerstudent at IBM with several customers<br />

Recognition<br />

1990 Patent Application Award<br />

1988 First Patent Application Award<br />

1987 Outstanding Technical Achievement Award<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 2 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Agenda<br />

Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

� What is IT Consulting / IT Architecture<br />

� What is Operations Research ?<br />

� General Approach<br />

� Some Areas of Operations Research<br />

� Example<br />

� References<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 3 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

IT Consultants and IT Architects work in the early<br />

phases of a project.<br />

Phase 1:<br />

Solution Strategy<br />

Selection<br />

Phase 4:<br />

Deliver Service<br />

Assessment<br />

Strategy<br />

Selection<br />

Operation<br />

Manage Delivery<br />

Architecture Data<br />

Processes<br />

D Design<br />

Develop<br />

Deploy<br />

HLDesign<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 4 © 2006 IBM Corporation<br />

Org<br />

Phase 2:<br />

Design Solution<br />

Phase 3:<br />

Implement Solution


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

The roles do overlap regarding the time in the<br />

solution life cycle.<br />

Priority of Role<br />

Consultants Architects Specialists<br />

Time in Life Cycle<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 5 © 2006 IBM Corporation


IT Consultant<br />

Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

� Works „high and early“:<br />

Leads in phase 1 and 2<br />

Consults and develops strategies<br />

Skill Depth<br />

Skill range<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 6 © 2006 IBM Corporation


IT Architect<br />

Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

� Leads in phase 2 and 3<br />

Develops the the complete solution<br />

„Thinks in the next larger context“<br />

Skill depth<br />

Skill range<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 7 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

What is Operations Research ?<br />

Some „Definitions“<br />

� „Operations Research is part of applied<br />

Mathematics.“<br />

� „Operations Research (OR) is the use of the<br />

scientific methodology in studying systems whose<br />

design or operation require human decision making.<br />

.... OR is interdisciplinary in nature, drawing on (and<br />

contributing to) the techniques from many fields,<br />

including the mathematical sciences, engineering,<br />

economics and the physical sciences.“ 1<br />

� „Application of quantitative methods to prepare<br />

optimal decisions“ 2<br />

u „OR is application of scientific thinking to real<br />

life problems.“<br />

Sources:<br />

1 http://www.or.ncsu.edu/Overview.dir/overview.<br />

2 Translated from [1]<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 8 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

What is Operations Research ?<br />

History<br />

Blaise Pascal<br />

(19.6.1623 - 19.8.1662)<br />

Carl Friedrich Gauß<br />

(30.4.1777 - 23.2.1855)<br />

His approaches to gambling<br />

games are the base for Game<br />

Theory which today is the<br />

framework for decision support in<br />

terms of tactic and strategy.<br />

Wanting to describe the tracks of<br />

asteroids, he invented calculus...<br />

The distribution function<br />

introduced byand later named after<br />

him is one of the most important<br />

formula in statistics.<br />

Leonhard Euler<br />

(15.4.1707 - 18.9.1783)<br />

Agner Krarup Erlang<br />

(1.1.1878 - 3.2.1929)<br />

His work on the problem of „The Seven Bridges of<br />

Königsberg“ was the fo<strong>und</strong>ationof the theory of<br />

graphs,<br />

which is the base for many structural or topological<br />

approaches.<br />

By studying a village telephone exchange he worked<br />

out a formula, nowknown as Erlang's formula, to<br />

calculate the fraction of callers attempting to call<br />

someone outside the village that must wait because all<br />

of the lines are busy.<br />

The mathematics <strong>und</strong>erlying today's complex<br />

telephone networks is still based on Erlang‘s work.<br />

The term „Operations Research“ appeared in the 1950ies and covers a broad range<br />

of scientific topics related to decision support.<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 9 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

When to use Operations Research ?<br />

� In general<br />

Decision Support<br />

Describe problems in a structured manner<br />

To find quantitative answers to problems<br />

� Especially<br />

Analysis of problems and results<br />

Design of solutions<br />

Determine stable estimations<br />

Preparation of interviews and test cases<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 10 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

General Approach in OR<br />

„Real World“<br />

„Model World“<br />

Picture based on [1]<br />

Real Real Problem<br />

Mathematical<br />

Model Model<br />

Solution for forReal Real<br />

Problem<br />

Abstraction Interpretation<br />

Description:<br />

„Analysis“<br />

Calculation<br />

If abstraction and interpretation do not match, a<br />

solution for one problem leads to solutions for other<br />

problems !<br />

Model Model Solution<br />

Solution:<br />

„Design"<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 11 © 2006 IBM Corporation<br />

!<br />

(This is a bless AND a curse.)


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Analogy: Abstraction and Interpretation<br />

This is<br />

Blue This is<br />

Red<br />

This is<br />

Grey<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 12 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Areas of OR: Probabilities and Statistics<br />

Are the results of my<br />

evaluation or ranking<br />

significant ?<br />

?<br />

0,14<br />

0,12<br />

0,1<br />

0,08<br />

0,06<br />

0,04<br />

0,02<br />

0<br />

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20<br />

n<br />

2<br />

2 ( ni<br />

− np)<br />

χ < α<br />

np<br />

= ∑<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 13 © 2006 IBM Corporation<br />

Density<br />

Probability<br />

!


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Areas of OR: Queueing Theory<br />

How many<br />

� Employees<br />

� Server<br />

� Replica<br />

� ...<br />

do I need ?<br />

C(<br />

c,<br />

t)<br />

c<br />

t<br />

c!<br />

c<br />

∑ −<br />

= c<br />

1 n<br />

t<br />

t<br />

+ ( 1−U<br />

)<br />

c!<br />

n=<br />

0 n!<br />

Client<br />

Call Center<br />

Help Desk<br />

⎛ C(<br />

c,<br />

t)<br />

⎞<br />

ERT = ES⎜1<br />

+ ⎟<br />

⎝ c(<br />

1−U<br />

) ⎠<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 14 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Areas of OR: Graphs<br />

Köln<br />

4 MBit<br />

Stuttgart<br />

2 MBit<br />

7 MBit<br />

Frankfurt<br />

6 MBit<br />

Hamburg<br />

5 MBit<br />

2 MBit<br />

10 MBit<br />

5 MBit<br />

München<br />

Berlin<br />

v 1<br />

8<br />

2<br />

v 4<br />

5<br />

v 3<br />

2<br />

v 2<br />

7<br />

5<br />

3<br />

3<br />

v 6<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 15 © 2006 IBM Corporation<br />

v 5<br />

Nr. Vorgangsname Dauer<br />

1<br />

2<br />

3<br />

4<br />

5<br />

6<br />

V1<br />

V2<br />

V3<br />

V4<br />

V5<br />

V6<br />

1 Tag<br />

1 Tag<br />

1 Tag<br />

1 Tag<br />

1 Tag<br />

1 Tag<br />

Die 01. Mai Mit 02. Mai Don 03. Mai Fre 04. Mai Sam 05. Mai Son 06. Mai Mon 07. Mai<br />

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Areas of OR: Queueing Systems/Netplan Technique<br />

How long does it take to<br />

make a bar of gold ?<br />

The farm makes<br />

wheat<br />

he mill needs wheat<br />

nd makes flour<br />

The Store needs gold<br />

The coal mine needs food and makes coal<br />

The ore mine needs foo<br />

and makes gold ore<br />

The bakery needs flour<br />

and water and makes<br />

bread<br />

The melt needs coal and<br />

ore and makes gold bars<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 16 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Other areas of OR<br />

Linear Programming<br />

Integer Programming<br />

Transportation<br />

Dynamics Optimization<br />

Non-Linear Optimization<br />

Decision Theory<br />

Game Theory<br />

Simulation<br />

Optimal Storage<br />

...<br />

The trick is re-combination of the areas...<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 17 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Example: System Design/Analysis<br />

� Problem<br />

Usually system designs are incomplete or inconsistent (or: „not good<br />

enough“).<br />

The methods currently used do not have any metrics „built in“ u no<br />

optimization possible<br />

The available tools are always depending on a specific method.<br />

� Related business issue<br />

It is very cost intensive to create high quality<br />

GP is lower than possible<br />

� Summary<br />

Approach to describe/evaluate system designs, e.g.:<br />

Process Models<br />

Data Models<br />

E2E Architectures<br />

...<br />

Based on discrete math (the same stuff we are using for VLSI design) and<br />

some algebraic stuff<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 18 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Component I<br />

Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Every entity in a system design can be decomposed to entities of the<br />

same type („children“).<br />

Subcomponent I<br />

Subcomponent II<br />

Subsubcomponent<br />

Subcomponent III<br />

Level 2 = Activity ?<br />

Level 1 = Task ?<br />

Level 0 = Process ?<br />

Subcomponent I<br />

Component I<br />

Subcomponent III<br />

Subcomponent II<br />

Subsubcomponent<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 19 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

An entities properties depend on the properties of its children.<br />

Subcomponent II:<br />

Property Value<br />

Scalability XXX<br />

Availability XXX<br />

Duration 9<br />

Cost XXX<br />

In general, „sum“ is a function:<br />

decomposes to<br />

ai, n = f ( a1,<br />

n,...,<br />

ai−1,<br />

n,<br />

ai+<br />

1,<br />

n,...,<br />

am,<br />

n,<br />

ai,<br />

n−1,<br />

1,...,<br />

ai,<br />

n−1,<br />

k<br />

Properties of<br />

same entity<br />

* the last level components are building a linear sequence (see prev. foil)<br />

is sum * Aggregation:<br />

of<br />

Same<br />

property of<br />

all children<br />

)<br />

Property Value<br />

Scalability XXX<br />

Availability XXX<br />

Duration 3<br />

Cost XXX<br />

Property Value<br />

Scalability XXX<br />

Availability XXX<br />

Duration 5<br />

Cost XXX<br />

Property Value<br />

Scalability XXX<br />

Availability XXX<br />

Duration 1<br />

Cost XXX<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 20 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

To determine the aggregation completely and consistently the system‘s description has to<br />

cover three classes of information: Hierarchies, Relationships and Graphs<br />

Hierarchies:<br />

� Processes<br />

� Architectural<br />

components<br />

� Data Entities<br />

� Organizational units<br />

(„Org Charts“)<br />

� Roles<br />

� ...<br />

(Decomposition-)<br />

Trees describing<br />

„set-like“<br />

properties<br />

Hier Namen eingeben<br />

Hier Titel eingeben<br />

Kommentar 1<br />

Kommentar 2<br />

Relationsships:<br />

� Who is responsable for<br />

what ?<br />

� Which process is<br />

applied to what<br />

component ?<br />

� Who has which role ?<br />

� ...<br />

Matrices describing<br />

relational properties<br />

1 1 1 1 1 1 1<br />

1 0 1 0 1 0 1<br />

1 0 0 0 1 0 0<br />

0 1 0 1 0 1 0<br />

0 1 1 1 0 1 1<br />

0 0 1 0 0 0 1<br />

Graphs:<br />

� Workflows<br />

� Dependencies<br />

� Interactions<br />

� ...<br />

general general<br />

general<br />

Hier Namen eingeben<br />

Hier Titel eingeben<br />

Kommentar 1<br />

Kommentar 2<br />

Hier Namen eingeben<br />

Hier Titel eingeben<br />

Kommentar 1<br />

Kommentar 2<br />

Hier Namen eingeben<br />

Hier Titel eingeben<br />

Kommentar 1<br />

Kommentar 2<br />

directed Graphs<br />

describing<br />

structural/topological<br />

properties<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 21 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Aggregation of metrics<br />

serial case<br />

parallel case<br />

Scalability<br />

f1, 1 f1, 2<br />

f1<br />

o ( g1(<br />

n))<br />

o(<br />

g2<br />

( n))<br />

o g ( n)<br />

+ g<br />

( 1 2<br />

Availability 1 a 2 a 1 2 a a<br />

Duration 1 d 2 d 1 2 d d +<br />

Cost 1 c 2 c 1 2 c c +<br />

Scalability<br />

* “o(g)“ means Landau Symbol<br />

o ( g1(<br />

n))<br />

o(<br />

g2<br />

( n))<br />

Availability 1 a 2 a<br />

Duration 1 d 2<br />

( n))<br />

o ( g1(<br />

n)<br />

+ g2(<br />

n))<br />

1− ( 1−<br />

a1) * ( 1−<br />

a2)<br />

d ) , d<br />

max( 1 2 d<br />

Cost 1 c 2 c 1 2 c c +<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 22 © 2006 IBM Corporation


References<br />

Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

[1] Werner Zimmermann „Operations Research -<br />

Quantitative Methoden zur<br />

Entscheidungsvorbereitung“<br />

Oldenbourg, 1999<br />

[2] Donald E. Knuth "The Art of Computer<br />

Programming", Vol. 1-3<br />

Addison Wesley, 1997<br />

[3] Simon Singh "Fermat's Last Theorem" Fourth Estate, 1997<br />

[4] Bronstein, I.N. and K.A.<br />

Semendyayev<br />

"Handbook of Mathematics" Verlag Harri Deutsch, 1985<br />

[5] Tom DeMarco "The Deadline" Dorset House Publishing, 1997<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 23 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

Online References<br />

„Operations Research at NCSU“<br />

http://www.or.ncsu.edu/Overview.dir/overview.html<br />

„Mathematics Archives - Lessons and Tutorials“<br />

http://archives.math.utk.edu/tutorials.html<br />

„Dictionary of Algorithms, Data Structures, and Problems “<br />

http://hissa.nist.gov/dads/<br />

„IBM Research - Operations Research“<br />

http://www.research.ibm.com/math/OpResearch/index.html<br />

„IBM Research - Ponder This/Monthly Challenge“<br />

http://www.research.ibm.com/ponder/<br />

„Management Science Techniques“<br />

http://www.cs.adfa.edu.au/teaching/studinfo/mst2/<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 24 © 2006 IBM Corporation


Information Technology Services – Service Delivery<br />

An old fashioned slogan...<br />

Think.<br />

Tag der <strong>Mathematik</strong>, Uni Jena | Slide 25 © 2006 IBM Corporation

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