Juha-Pekka Luntama, Head, SSA-SWE Segment, ESA - IPSC

Early Warning ChallengeSpace-Weather Awareness Dialogue25 - 26 October 2011Juha-Pekka LuntamaEuropean Space Agency

SPACE WEATHERESA SSA Customer Requirements• SSA SWE high level requirements:‣ the detection and forecasting of space weatherand its effects• Spacecraft design:‣ Long term solar cycle and space environment• Spacecraft operation‣ In-orbit environment and effects, ionosphericdisturbances, atmospheric drag, meteoroid andspace debris flux• Human space flight‣ Solar activity, SEPs, all quiet• Forecast periods from 1–7 days to years• All users also request forecasts on SWE impactsEuropean Space Agency

SPACE WEATHERSolar Cycle and Space Weather Forecasting• Long term forecasting of solar events is a challenge!• 27 day period of solar rotation=> coronal holes=> persistent active regions (sunspots)• Climatological models provide baseline activity levelforecasts=> solar maximum/minimum=> baseline levels of solar and geomagnetic indicesSSA, Warsaw Seminar, 29 September 2011European Space Agencyimages: (ESA, NASA, NOAA , RAL)

SPACE WEATHERExisting Assets and Development Needs• The current situation with SWE assets is relatively good‣ Aging science missions (SOHO, ACE, STEREO, ...), newscience missions (PROBA2, SDO, ...) and operationalmissions (GOES, MetOp, ...) provide data‣ (Pre-)operational or prototype SWE services already availablein Europe, NOAA SWPC in the US, many other SWE centresaroung the world• Main challenges in Europe‣ Ensure the availability and continuity of critical SWEobservations=> establishment of an operational SWE space segment=> maintenance and enhancement of the ground segment‣ Coordinated development of operational SWE services tunedfor the customer needs=> autonomy in service provision=> competition in scientific excellenceEuropean Space Agencyimages: (ESA & NASA)