JUNE 2013 - FEAS

FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES ANNUAL REPORT JUNE 2013TEHRAN STOCK EXCHANGECAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTAND ECONOMIC OUTLOOKIn 2012, the second phase of Iran’s TargetedSubsidy Program was not implemented, due tothe considerable increasing in national liquidityand inflation rate through the first phase.Following this, reforming subsidies on energycarriers was postponed.Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the currentprice has been $ 496 billion during 2012 with anannual growth of 0.4%. Additionally, the inflationrate in October 2012 was 24.9% comparing thesame month of the last year.According to the Iranian Central Bank (CBI)report on 27 October, growth of Monetary Basefrom 23/7/2011 to 22/7/2012 has been 24%;while it was 10.5% in the same period of the lastyear (23/7/2010 - 23/7/2011).During this period, the liquidity growth has alsobeen 25.5% compared to 21.5% for the sametime in the last year.Liquidity was IRR 392 trillion at the end of July2012 which has increased by IRR 40,400 billionin about four months.Reviewing the changes in the Mandatory Basecomponents during a 50-month period, endedto 20 August 2012, indicates that rising of thebanks’ debt to the Central Bank (Central Bank’sreceivables from banks) is the most importantitem in growth of the index during the period.As the CBI’s report (27 Oct. 2012) shows, thebanks’ debt has grown 10.8% during the period,from 20 March to 22 August 2012.The other effective factor on the MandatoryBase growth is the increasing of thegovernment’s debt to the Central Bank.Besides, according to the Central Bank’s reporton 27 November 2012, Iran’s export in the first3-month of the last Persian year (20 March to20 June 2011), has been $38,751 million, andin the same time in 2012, it has been $25,918million, which shows a 33.1% decline.Iran’s Import in the same time has been $17,816million in 2011 and $16,043 million in 2012,which shows a 10% drop.(1 US$= IRR 12,260, December 2012 - http://cbi.ir)ECONOMIC CHARTS AND TABLESAverageEstimation2000-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Real GDP Growth (Annual Change;%) 5.5 5.8 10.8 0.6 3.5 3.2 2.5 3.4Consumer Price Inflation (Year Average;%) 13.5 11.9 18.4 25.4 10.8 12.4 22.5 12.5Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.1 9.3 10.5 6.5 3 6 7.8 7.1Real GDP Growth (Annual Change;%) 5.5 5.8 10.8 0.6 3.5 3.2 2.5 3.4Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth (Annual Change;%) 5.9 6.2 11.4 0.9 4.3 3.6 2.6 3.5Current Oil Production and Exports (Million barrels day) 3.7 4 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7Consumer Price Inflation (Year Average;%) 13.5 11.9 18.4 25.4 10.8 12.4 22.5 12.5General Government Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.9 2.3 7.4 0.7 1 1.7 2.4 1General Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance (% of Non-Oil GDP) -17.8 -25.3 -18.1 -26.1 -15.2 -16.5 -16.8 -16.1General Government Non-Oil Revenue (% of Non-Oil GDP) 10.1 12.4 12.8 14.1 12.5 10.8 12.1 11.9Exports of Goods and Services (Billion U.S Dollars) 41.4 82.3 105.2 109.9 95.6 116.5 137.1 140.8Imports of Goods and Services (Billion U.S Dollars) 35.4 62.1 73.9 88.4 85 92.4 100.3 105.1Current Account Balance (Billion U.S dollars) 605 20.6 32.6 22.9 10.9 24.4 36.9 35.2Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.1 9.3 10.5 6.5 3 6 7.8 7.1Gross Official Reserves (Billion U.S dollars) 25.9 60.5 82.9 79.6 78 78.9 104.6 138.7Source: IMF, Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011Key Information ContactsTehran Stock Exchange Corporation www.iranbourse.comSecurities and Exchange Organization www.seo.irIranian Privatization Organization www.en.ipo.irTSE’s Technology Management Company http://english.tsetmc.comCentral Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran www.cbi.irIranian Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines (ICCIM) www.iccim.comOrganization for Investment, Economic & technical Assistance (OIETAI) a division of the Ministry of Finance www.investiniran.irIran Farabourse www.irfarabourse.comCentral Securities Depository of Iran (CSDI) www.csdieng.comIran Mercantile Exchange http://ime.co.irCONTACT INFORMATIONContact Name Mr. Amir Yousefianpour E-mail int@tse.ir Website www.iranbourse.comPAGE 82