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A Leap of Faith (Malaysia Strategy)

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A leap <strong>of</strong> faith<strong>Malaysia</strong> strategyClare ChinHead <strong>of</strong> Research - <strong>Malaysia</strong>December 2010


Table <strong>of</strong> contentsThree interesting chartsRetailers join the party?Reforming <strong>Malaysia</strong>©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 2


Three interesting charts


CLSA Price ActionFBMKLCI – end <strong>of</strong> an era?Secular bear market over thelast 14 yearsConvincing breakout above1,500 pointsTechnical chart points to2,610 points>15% earnings growth and21x PE in 2012Source: Price Action©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 6


Retailers join the party?


Retail trading participation still low100%90%80%70%60%50%40%Institution - ForeignInstitution - LocalRetail30%20%10%0%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3Q10©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 8


Rising savings/capita2,500(RM)2,0001, 5 0 01, 0 0 0500-1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 9


Falling real deposit rates7(%)6543210-1-21994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1Q10 3Q10©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 10


Wealth or savings compositionWhere do <strong>Malaysia</strong>ns store their wealth?Cash depositsPropertiesEquitiesBondsBusinessinvestmentsForeign currencies(No. <strong>of</strong> respondents)0 50 100 150 200 250©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 11


Rising property prices but PE still low280260(Index yr=1990)Property Price IndexProperty PE (RHS)(x)5.52405.02202004.51801604.01403.51201001994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20083.0©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 12


Rising FBMKLCI but market cap/GDP still low1,6001,400(pts)FBMKLC IMktCap/GDP (RHS)(x)3.02.51,2002.01,0008001.56001.04000.51994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 13


Equity market at mid-cycle valuations24.3x22.3x20.3x18.3x16.3x14.3x12.3x10.3x8.3x6.3xDec94 Dec96 Dec98 Dec00 Dec02 Dec04 Dec06 Dec08©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 14


Reforming <strong>Malaysia</strong>


NajibnomicsNajib’s approval rating at all-time highFiscal budget deficit to be reduced by 2.8% by 15F8070(%)6568728.07.0(%)7.06050403044566.05.04.03.05.24.44.23.53.74.95.65.43.83.33.02.8202.0101.00Apr 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 Apr 10 Jun 100.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015FDevelopment budget under the <strong>Malaysia</strong> Plans500450400350300250200150100500(RMbn)5MP 6MP 7MP 8MP 9MP 10MPSource: Merdeka Centre, EPUPFIPFISupportFund©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 16


Can-lah Generation!Planned infrastructure in Iskandar <strong>Malaysia</strong>UEM Land relative performance3903402902401901409040(%)Rel perf to FBMRel perf to MSC I MalAsset reflation in Iskandar<strong>Malaysia</strong> lifts RNAV(10)Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10Source: The Edge, Bloomberg©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 17


‘C’ changeStronger currencyNew capex cycle5.0(USDMYR)(% )4.54.04338Investment/GDP3.5333.0282.5232.0Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10181990 1995 2000 2005 2010CL 2015CL 2020CLReversing FDI outflows16US$bnFDI inflowsUS$bn614FDI outflowsnet FDI flows (RHS)41221008-26-44-62-8Source: BNM, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets0-101989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 18


Setting them freeKhazanah outperformed local indices 2004-09Report card for Khazanah’s GLC transformation programmeMSCI IndoMSCI IndiaMSCI ChinaMSCI KoreaMSCI AP ex-JapMSCI PhilKhazanahMSCI SingFBM KLCIMSCI MalMSCI Thail(%)0 50 100 150 200 250 300Success storyAxiataCIMBFaberMAHBPharmaniagaPOSUEM LandReforms pendingMASPLUSProtonTenagaTdCTimeTMKhazanah creating value for GLCsCompanyCorporaterestructuringSale <strong>of</strong> strategicstakeCapitalmanagementOverseasexpansionNationalpolicyobligationsAxiata***CIMB**Faber**WIPMAHB***MAS*WIPPharmaniagaWIP**PLUS***WIPPOSWIP**ProtonWIPWIPTdCWIP*Tenaga**WIPTimeWIPWIPTM***WIPUEM Land**©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 19


Economic Transformation ProgrammeIncremental GNI for the next 10 yearsUSD444bn investments over the next 10 yearsGreater KL/KVOil, Gas & EnergyPalm OilFin ServicesWholesale & RetailTourismBus. ServicesE&ECCIHealthcareEducationAgricultureEnhancing accountabilityKey sectorOil, gas & energyPalm OilFinancial ServicesWholesale & retailTourismBusiness ServicesElectronics & electricalCommunications, content & infraHealthcareEducationAgricultureGreater Kuala Lumpur(RMbn)0 100 200 300 400 500Person(s) in charge <strong>of</strong> the sectorNajib RazakPeter ChinBernard DompokZeti Akhtar AzizZarinah AnwarIsmail Sabri YaakobNg Yen YenNAMustapa MohamedMaximus OngkiliRais YatimLiow Tiong LaiMuhyiddin YassinMohamed Khaled NordinNoh OmarRaja Nong ChikForeigninvestment25%Public Funding8%Domesticprivateinvestment67%©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).Source: ETP, Government <strong>of</strong> <strong>Malaysia</strong>IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 20


Upcoming CLSA ForumsAsean Forum 20119-11 February, BangkokJapan Forum 201128 February-3 March, TokyoCorporate Access Forum 201111-13 May, SingaporeChina Forum 201116-18 May, BeijingInvestors' Forum 201119-23 September, Hong KongU N I T E D S T A T E S 2 0 1 1TMAsiaUSA TM Forum 20117-9 November, San FranciscoIndia Forum 201114-16 November, Gurgaon©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”).IMPORTANT: The content <strong>of</strong> this report is subject to CLSA's Legal and Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy <strong>of</strong> which maybe obtained on request from CLSA Publications or CLSA Compliance Group, 18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone (852) 2600 8888.Page 21


Important notices© 2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets ("CLSA").Key to CLSA investment rankings: BUY = Expected to outperform the local market by >10%; O-PF = Expected to outperform the local market by 0-10%; U-PF = Expected to underperform the local market by 0-10%;SELL = Expected to underperform the local market by >10%. Performance is defined as 12-month total return (including dividends).This publication/communication is subject to and incorporates the terms and conditions <strong>of</strong>use set out on the www.clsa.com website. Neither the publication/ communication nor any portion here<strong>of</strong> may be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent <strong>of</strong> CLSA.CLSA has produced this publication/communication for private circulation to pr<strong>of</strong>essional, institutional and/or wholesale clients only. The information, opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended fordistribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject CLSA to any additional registration or licensing requirement within suchjurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to itsaccuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment <strong>of</strong> CLSA at the date <strong>of</strong> this publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice. 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