Packet - Economics - Johns Hopkins University

Dear Colleague:
THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Tel:(410) 516-7601
Tel:(410) 516-7600
Enclosed please find the packet containing an annotated list of the Johns Hopkins
Ph.D. candidates in economics who are on the job market this year, along with their
curriculum vitae and dissertation abstracts. Please note that the same information is
available on our web site, http://econ.jhu.edu/directoryindex/job-market/.
All of these candidates expect to complete their dissertations by September of
next year and will attend the AEA meeting in January.
Feel free to contact me if you have questions regarding any of the candidates. Of
course, you can also contact the candidates directly, or their advisors.
Thank you.
Baltimore, MD 21218-2685
Sincerely,
Chris Carroll
Placement Officer
ccarroll@jhu.edu

Department of Economics
Faculty 2012-2013
NAME OFFICE TELEPHONE E-MAIL
Laurence Ball 410-516-7605 lball@jhu.edu
Christopher Carroll 410-516-7602 ccarroll@jhu.edu
Greg Duffee 410-516-8828 duffee@jhu.edu
Hülya Eraslan 410-516-6118 eraslan@jhu.edu
Jon Faust 410-516-7614 faustj@jhu.edu
Caroline Fohlin 410-516-6135 fohlin@jhu.edu
Mark Gersovitz 410-516-7612 gerso@att.net
Bruce Hamilton 410-516-7613 bruce.hamilton@jhu.edu
Yingyao Hu 410-516-7610 yhu@jhu.edu
Olivier Jeanne 410-516-7604 ojeanne@jhu.edu
Przemek Jeziorski 410-516-4938 przemekj@jhu.edu
Edi Karni 410-516-7608 karni@jhu.edu
M. Ali Khan 410-516-8545 akhan@jhu.edu
Elena Krasnokutskaya 410-516-7606 ekrasno1@jhu.edu
Louis Maccini 410-516-7607 maccini@jhu.edu
Robert Moffitt 410-516-7611 moffitt@jhu.edu
Barbara Morgan 410-516-7529 bmorgan@jhu.edu
Richard Spady 410-516-7601 rspady@jhu.edu
Jonathan Wright 410-516-5728 wrightj@jhu.edu
Mailing address for all Faculty is:
Johns Hopkins University Academic Program Coordinator: Maggie Potts
Department of Economics Telephone: 410-516-7570
440 Mergenthaler Hall Fax: 410-516-7600
3400 North Charles Street E-mail: mpotts@jhu.edu
Baltimore, MD 21218

Other References
For Job Candidates 2011
NAME OFFICE TELEPHONE E-MAIL
Joseph E. Harrington, Jr. harrij@wharton.upenn.edu
Przemyslaw Jeziorski (510) 643-7183 przemekj@haas.berkeley.edu
Pravin Krishna (202) 663-5733 Pravin Krishna@jhu.edu
Stephen H. Shore (202) 622-1513 sshore@gsu.edu
Tiemen Woutersen (520) 621-6224 woutersen@email.arizona.edu

Last
Name
First
Name
The Johns Hopkins University Department of Economics
Job Candidates 2011
E-mail Thesis Title Fields Advisors
Carey Colleen colleen.carey@jhu.edu Strategic Benefit Design and
Drug Prices in Medicare
Part D
Mazzoleni Michele mazzoleni@jhu.edu Essays on the U.S. Treasury
Market and its Frictions
Seneviratne Prathi psenevir@jhu.edu Essays in International
Trade and Labor Supply
White Matthew mnwhite@jhu.edu Essays on Health Care Markets
Xu Xiaochen xxu18@jhu.edu Essays on College Transfer
in U.S. and Children’s Welfare
in China
Zhao Wei weizhao@jhu.edu Essays on Mergers, Collusion,
and Innovation
Zhao Yizhen yzhao16@jhu.edu Essays on Real-time Density
Forecasting
Health Economics, Industrial Organization,
Applied Micro
Financial Intermediation, Empirical
Asset Pricing, Monetary Policy, Applied
Macroeconomics
International Trade, Labor Economics,
Applied Microeconomics,
Applied Econometrics, Economic
Dynamics
Prof. Joseph Harrington
Prof. Elena Krasnokutskaya
Dr. Stephen Shore
Prof. Jonathan Wright
Prof. Greg Duffee
Prof. Olivier Jeanne
Prof. Pravin Krishna
Prof. Robert Moffitt
Health, labor Prof. Hulya K.K. Eraslan
Prof. Christopher Carroll
Labor economics, Public economics,
Health economics, Economics of education,
Applied econometrics
Industrial Organization, Microeconometrics,
Game Theory and Microeconomic
Theory
Financial Econometrics, Empirical
Macroeconomics and Finance
Prof. Robert Moffitt
Prof. Yingyao Hu
Prof. Joseph Harrington
Prof.Przemyslaw Jeziorski
Prof. Richard Spady
Prof. Jonathan Wright
Prof. Richard Spady
Prof. Laurence Ball

Johns Hopkins University
Department of Economics
3400 N. Charles St.
Baltimore, MD 21218
(410) 516-7601
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Citizenship: US citizen.
Colleen Carey
1239 Independence Ave SE
Washington, DC 20003
Cell: (419)610-7500
colleen.carey@jhu.edu
www.econ.jhu.edu/directory/colleen-carey
Top Secret clearance granted May 2012; favorable SSBI valid through December 2016.
EDUCATION
Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, June 2013 (expected).
M.A. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, May 2009.
B.A. in International Development Studies, Yale University, May 2004.
RESEARCH AND TEACHING INTERESTS
Research: Health Economics, Industrial Organization, Economics of Risk, Public Finance.
Teaching: Health Economics, Industrial Organization, Econometrics, Microeconomics.
PUBLICATIONS
Carey, Colleen and Stephen Shore. “From the Peaks to the Valleys: Cross-State Evidence
on Income Volatility Over the Business Cycle.” Forthcoming, Review of Economics and
Statistics.
Chung, Paul J., Craig Garfield, Marc N. Elliott, Colleen Carey, Carl Eriksson, and Mark
Schuster. 2007. “Need for and Use of Family Leave among Parents of Children with Special
Health Care Needs.” Pediatrics. 119: e1047-1055.
UNPUBLISHED PAPERS
Carey, Colleen. “Government Payments and Insurer Benefit Design in Medicare Part D.”
(Job Market Paper)
Sommers,BenjaminD.,ThomasBuchmueller,SandraL.Decker,ColleenCarey,andRichard
Kronick. “Access to Care and Coverage Gains for Young Adults under the Affordable Care
Act.” Revision submitted to Health Affairs.
Carey, Colleen. “Consumer Behavior and Market Share in the First Two Years of Medicare
Part D.”

CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS
Colleen Carey
“Government Payments and Insurer Benefit Design in Medicare Part D.”
3/17/12 at the International Industrial Organization Conference, Arlington, VA
“From the Peaks to the Valleys: Cross-State Evidence on Income Volatility Over the Business
Cycle.”
2/28/10 at Eastern Economic Association, Philadelphia, PA
“Consumer Behavior and Market Share in the First Two Years of Medicare Part D.”
2/27/10 at Eastern Economic Association, Philadelphia, PA
6/29/09 at Academy Health Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL (poster presentation)
11/18/08 at RAND, Washington, DC
10/5/08 at RAND, Santa Monica, CA
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Staff Economist, Council of Economic Advisers, August 2011 to July 2012.
Research Assistant to Stephen Shore, January 2009 to May 2010.
Research Assistant to Tiemen Woutersen, January 2009 to May 2009.
Summer Associate, RAND, Summer 2008.
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Instructor
Seminar in Financial Literacy, January 2009 and January 2010.
A three-week course on finance topics for undergraduates mostly taught by guest
lecturers; I planned the curricula, invited the speakers, and gave background lectures.
Teaching Assistant
Evaluations available upon request.
Research in Financial Markets, Prof. Caroline Fohlin, Spring 2011.
Health Economics, Prof. David Bishai, Fall 2010.
Principles of Macroeconomics, Prof. Louis Maccini, Fall 2008.
Population Economics, Prof. Scott Boggess, Spring 2008.
Principles of Macroeconomics, Prof. Louis Maccini, Fall 2007.

SKILLS
Programming: MATLAB, Stata, TEX.
Colleen Carey
Languages: English (native), Spanish (conversational), French (conversational), Arabic
(conversational).
GRANTS AND FELLOWSHIPS
Association for Healthcare Research and Quality Health Services Research Dissertation
Grant R36 HS020881, 2012-2013. Proposal score: 12 (scale of 10 to 90).
Fellowship, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 2009-2010.
T. Rowe Price Fellowship, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 2006-2008.
REFERENCES
Professor Joseph Harrington, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
e-mail: harrij@wharton.upenn.edu
Professor Elena Krasnokutskaya, Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: ekrasnok@jhu.edu@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7606
Professor Stephen Shore, Georgia State University
e-mail: sshore@gsu.edu, Phone: (404) 413-7466
Professor Thomas Buchmueller, University of Michigan
e-mail: tbuch@umich.edu, Phone: (734) 764-5933

Strategic Benefit Design and Drug Prices in Medicare Part D
Colleen Carey
Government Payments and Insurer Benefit Design in Medicare Part D (JMP)
This paper demonstrates health insurers’ incentive to design benefits that differentially appeal
to good risks (the healthy) and deter bad risks (the sick) in Medicare Part D. I extend
prior theory to show that insurers in Part D will cover drugs taken by good risks at high rates
and low copays while covering drugs taken by bad risks at low rates and high copays. Empirical
support for benefit design theory has been lacking due to several econometric challenges, but
special features of Medicare Part D allow me to verify the theoretical predictions. Most importantly,
inaccuracies in Part D’s system of diagnosis-specific payments, which was set using
inaccurate data, define certain diagnoses as good or bad risks. Secondly, because drugs are
closely associated with diagnoses, a Part D insurer’s incentives for a particular drug can be
inferred from the risk type of the diagnosis the drug treats. Finally, insurer incentives should
be strong in Part D because Medicare beneficiaries with highly persistent drug needs choose
plans on the basis of coverage and copay for certain drugs. Using the risk types implied by
the payment system, I show that, consistent with the theory, Part D insurers cover drugs that
treat good risks at higher rates and lower copayments than drugs that treat bad risks. This
effect is strong even for drugs subject to special benefit design regulations.
Drug Price, Bargaining Power, and Risk Type in Medicare Part D (in progress)
According to prior theoretical and empirical evidence, health insurers cover services that
appeal to good risks (the healthy) at high rates and low copays while covering services that
appeal to bad risks (the sick) at low rates and high copays. This paper incorporates an
upstream medical provider from whom the insurer must purchase services at a price set by
Nash bargaining. In this setting, providers of a service that appeals to good risks demand
higher prices while providers of a service that appeals to bad risks accept lower prices. When
provider bargaining power is high, the reaction of service price to risk type is strong, whereas
weak providers lead to a weaker relationship between risk type and service price. I test these
theoretical predictions using Medicare Part D. As in previous work, the risk type of each drug
is derived from Part D’s inaccurate diagnosis-specific payment system.
From the Peaks to the Valleys: Cross-State Evidence on Income Volatility
Over the Business Cycle (joint with Stephen Shore, forthcoming in ReSTAT)
Counter-cyclical variation in idiosyncratic labor income risk could generate substantial
welfare costs. Following past research, we infer income volatility – the variance of permanent
income shocks, a standard proxy for income risk – from the rate at which cross-sectional
variances of income rise over the life-cycle for a given cohort. Our novelty lies in exploiting
cross-state variation in state economic conditions or state sensitivity to national economic
conditions. We find that income volatility is higher in good state times than bad; during good
national times, we find higher volatility in states more sensitive to national conditions.

MICHELE G. MAZZOLENI
Johns Hopkins University
Department of Economics
3400 N. Charles St.
Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
Fax: +1 (410) 516-7600
http://econ.jhu.edu/directory/michele-mazzoleni
EDUCATION
Citizenship: Swiss (F1 Visa)
Date of Birth: May 2, 1984
Sex: Male
Cell Phone: +1 (443) 220-8504
mazzoleni@jhu.edu
Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, May 2013 (expected)
Primary Advisors: Jonathan Wright and Greg Duffee
Dissertation: Essays on the U.S. Treasury Market and its Frictions.
M.A. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, May 2011
M.Sc. in Economics, London School of Economics, London, U.K., July 2008
B.A. in Economics, Summa Cum Laude, University of Lugano, Lugano, Switzerland,
July 2006
RESEARCH AND TEACHING INTERESTS
Research: Financial Intermediation, Empirical Asset Pricing, Monetary Policy, Applied
Macroeconomics
Teaching: Financial Markets and Institutions, Macroeconomics, Econometrics
RESEARCH PAPERS
“Treasury Yields and Auction Cycle Management”, Job Market Paper
“Do Investor Classes affect Treasury Yields? Evidence from Buyers in the Primary
Market” - in progress
“Market Segmentation and Bond Risk Premia” - in progress
ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE
Instructor: Elements of Macroeconomics (Summer 2011)
Teaching Assistant: Monetary Analysis (Fall 2012) - International Monetary Economics(Spring2011,2012)-ElementsofMacroeconomics(Fall2010,2011)-Elements
of Microeconomics (Spring 2010) - International Political Economy (Fall 2009) - Financial
Markets and Institutions (Spring 2009)
Research Assistant to Professor Mauro Baranzini, University of Lugano, (Summer
2005, 2006)
Teaching evaluations available upon request.

NON-ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE
Michele G. Mazzoleni
UBS Investment Bank, Intern at Foreign Exchange Division, Switzerland, January
- August 2007
CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS
Southern Economic Association, Annual Meeting in New Orleans, November
2012, (Paper: “Treasury Yields and Auction Cycle Management”)
EconCon Conference, Princeton, August 2012, (Paper: “Treasury Yields and Auction
Cycle Management”)
DISTINCTIONS
SKILLS
Fellowship, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University, Fall 2008-present
BSI Pietro Balestra Award, University of Lugano, Summer 2006,
(Best student in the courses of statistics, econometrics, and mathematics)
Computer: MATLAB, Stata, L ATEX, Bloomberg
Languages: English (fluent), Italian (native), French (good), German (intermediate)
REFERENCES
Professor Jonathan H. Wright
Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics
E-mail: wrightj@jhu.edu, Phone: +1 (410) 516-5728
Professor Gregory R. Duffee
Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics
E-mail: duffee@jhu.edu, Phone: +1 (410) 516-8828
Professor Olivier Jeanne
Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics
E-mail: ojeanne@jhu.edu, Phone: +1 (410) 516-7604
Updated: November 12, 2012

Essays on the U.S. Treasury Market and its Frictions
Michele G. Mazzoleni
A growing literature argues that Treasury market frictions may have significant effects on the
yield curve. My dissertation studies their effects on yields following Treasury auctions and
explores the implications for debt management policies and theories of limited arbitrage.
Chapter 1: Treasury Yields and Auction Cycle Management (Job Market Paper)
I show that the U.S. Treasury influences the yield curve by managing the auction cycles of
its securities. First, I develop a simple theoretical model in which the Treasury selects the
size and the frequency of auctions. I show that the Treasury may increase its revenues by
choosing to issue small amounts frequently or larger amounts less frequently, and the relative
profitability of each policy depends on its financing needs. Second, I estimate an empirical
model of Treasury yields. I find that auction size and frequency affect new and old note yields
as predicted by my model; in addition, their influence persists for several weeks after the
initial issuance. Third, I evaluate the Treasury’s decisions to shift the frequency of auctions
between monthly and quarterly. Given the evolution of borrowing needs, I find that these
policies saved U.S. taxpayers a considerable amount of money.
Chapter 2: Do Investor Classes affect Treasury Yields? Evidence from Buyers in
the Primary Market (in progress)
Recent empirical evidence shows that Treasury auctions exercise temporary pressure on bond
prices because of the imperfect liquidity of the market. In this paper, I study how the magnitude
of this price pressure is related to the composition of buyers at auction. I distinguish
between three main categories of investors: broker-dealers, investment funds, and foreign
investors. I find that prices at auction are positively related to the share purchased by investment
funds and negatively related to the share purchased by broker-dealers. Instead, foreign
investors appear to have only marginal influence. Further, these shares predict subsequent
excess returns. These findings are consistent with the view that broker-dealers are the “liquidity
providers” of the Treasury market.
Chapter 3: Market Segmentation and Bond Risk Premia (in progress)
Newly issued Treasury securities (“on-the-runs”) regularly trade at a premium over similar
but older securities (“off-the-runs”). This spread is usually attributed to the different liquidity
of the assets. I argue that movements in this premium also reflect arbitrageurs’ risk-bearing
capacity. Consistent with my hypothesis, I find that the five- and the ten-year on-the-run
premia are related to the off-the-run yield curve. For instance, a 0.1% increase of the tenyear
on-the-run premium is associated with a 0.5% steepening of the off-the-run yield curve.
Further, the five- and ten-year on-the-run premia forecast off-the-run excess returns even after
controlling for the level, the slope, and the curvature of the yield curve. Finally, I document
that these premia are positively related to primary dealers’ Treasury positions. This evidence
indicates that on-the-run premia may be a useful indicator of investors’ risk exposure.

Johns Hopkins University
Department of Economics
3400 N. Charles St.
Baltimore, MD 21218
USA
(410)516-7601
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Citizenship: Sri Lanka
Date of Birth: Feb 9, 1981
EDUCATION
Prathi Seneviratne
3400 N. Charles St., MERG 426
Baltimore, MD 21218
USA
Cell: (443)682-5013
psenevir@jhu.edu
URL:www.econ.jhu.edu/directory/prathi-seneviratne
Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, June 2013 (expected).
M.A. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, May 2010.
B.A. in Economics, magna cum laude, Mount Holyoke College, May 2007.
RESEARCH AND TEACHING INTERESTS
Research: InternationalTrade,LaborEconomics,AppliedMicroeconomics,AppliedEconometrics,
Economic Dynamics.
Teaching: International Trade, Microeconomics, Macroeconomics.
RESEARCH PAPERS
“Human Capital Investment and Labor Supply: Adjustments to Trade Policy,” (Job Market
Paper).
‘Trade Liberalization, Human Capital, and the Skill Premium,” (in progress).
‘The Welfare Impact of Trade in Services,” (in progress).
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
Research Assistant to Prof. Larry Ball, Johns Hopkins University, Fall 2010, Spring
2011, Fall 2012.
Research Assistant to Dr. Saman Kelegama, Institute of Policy Studies, Colombo, Sri
Lanka, Summer 2006.
Intern, International Centre for Ethnic Studies, Colombo, Sri Lanka, Summer 2005.

TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Instructor
Prathi Seneviratne
Memorandums of Misunderstanding: The Tangled Web of International Trade, Johns Hopkins
University, Spring 2013.
International Trade, Johns Hopkins University, Summer 2009, Spring 2010, Spring 2011.
Macroeconomic Principles, Loyola University Maryland, Fall 2012.
Teaching Assistant
Elements of Macroeconomics, Prof. Lou Maccini, Fall 2009, Fall 2010, Fall 2011.
Macroeconomic Theory, Prof. Larry Ball and Dr. John Driscoll, Fall 2008, Spring 2010,
Spring 2011.
Labor Economics, Dr. Matthew Wiswall, Spring 2012.
Corporate Finance, Prof. Greg Duffee, Spring 2009.
Investments and Portfolio Management, Dr. Matthew Pritsker, Spring 2008.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
SKILLS
Co-editor, Options, The Women and Media Collective, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 2001-2003.
Programming: MATLAB, Stata, TEX.
Languages: English (first language), Sinhala (native), French (reading)
FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS
Dean’s Teaching Fellowship, Johns Hopkins University, Krieger School of Arts and Sciences,
Spring 2013.
Graduate Fellowship, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 2007–2011.
Virginia Galbraith Prize, (best economics student), Mount Holyoke College, Fall 2006.
Sarah Williston Prize, (ranked second in class of 2007), Mount Holyoke College, Spring
2006.

REFERENCES
Prathi Seneviratne
Professor Pravin Krishna, Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International
Studies
e-mail: pravin krishna@jhu.edu, Phone: (202) 663-5733
Professor Robert A. Moffitt, Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: moffitt@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7611
Professor Lawrence Ball, Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: lball@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7605
Professor Louis J. Maccini (teaching), Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: maccini@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7607

Essays on the Labor Market Impact of Trade Liberalization
Prathi Seneviratne
1 Human Capital Investment and Labor Supply: Adjustments to Trade
Policy (job market paper)
Trade liberalization alters the returns to human capital investment. Classical theory predicts
human capital investment and wage inequality will decline in a low-skill-abundant
country. However, empirical evidence is mixed; the wage skill premium either increased
or evolved non-monotonically in some developing countries, while schooling enrollment either
increased or remained unchanged in others. Classical theory ignores the endogeneity
and multi-dimensionality of human capital, and the link between short-run labor market
responses to long-run outcomes. This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium model of the
labor market to assess trade-induced transitional dynamics, linking individual education
and employment decisions with aggregate labor supply, output, and welfare. The model
is estimated with Sri Lankan labor force data and used to simulate a tariff reduction in
the manufacturing sector. The findings are: 1) Human capital investment falls in the short
run, diminishing the potential long-run gains to trade; 2) Labor market reallocation takes
several years, resulting in large adjustment costs for workers and the overall economy; 3)
The wage skill premium evolves non-monotonically but converges to a higher level than before,
as workers sort into the two extremes of the skill distribution; 4) Income transfers that
directly increase the human capital stock perform better in harnessing long-run gains than
policies that simply defray the costs of switching sectors; 5) Growth in the physical capital
stock — mimicking foreign direct investment — increases wage inequality, in line with
theories that suggest foreign direct investment has contributed to rising wage inequality.
2 Trade Liberalization, Human Capital, and the Skill Premium (in progress)
This paper further explores the dynamics of education investment and the skill premium
documented in the first paper. Using a modified framework that links the degree of trade
openness to total factor productivity (TFP), the model attempts to explain the mixed
empirical evidence on developing country skill premia. The model is calibrated with labor
force data used in the first paper and UN Comtrade data. Preliminary tests show that
education costs, sector-specific skill intensities, and TFP evolution together determine the
dynamics of skill premia and education investment after a trade reform.
3 The Welfare Impact of Trade in Services (in progress)
Although the empirical literature on trade and labor markets has largely focused on commodities,
services trade has been rising in recent years. This suggests that more developed
economies, in which services has overtaken commodities in GDP share, are exposed to
increased trade risk. Moreover, because services is relatively high-skilled, high-skill workers
may be increasingly exposed to trade. Using CPS and BEA trade data, this paper
evaluates the welfare impact of services trade, looking at mean wages, wage volatility and
unemployment risk over the lifetime.

Johns Hopkins University
Department of Economics
3400 N. Charles St.
Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
(410) 516-7601
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Citizenship: United States
Date of Birth: March 13, 1982
EDUCATION
MATTHEW N. WHITE
3400 N. Charles St, Mergenthaler 426
Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
Cell: (603) 566-0413
Fax: (410) 516-7600
mnwhite@jhu.edu
www.econ.jhu.edu/directory/Matthew-N-White
Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, July 2013 (expected).
M.A. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, May 2010.
B.S. in Policy Analysis & Management, Cornell University, August 2005.
RESEARCH AND TEACHING INTERESTS
Health Economics, Applied Theory, Labor Economics
UNPUBLISHED PAPERS
SKILLS
“An Ounce of Prevention at Half Price: Evaluating a Subsidy on Health Investments,” (Job
Market Paper).
“The Role of Medical Inflation in Demand for Health Care,” (in progress).
“Competition Among Medical Insurers and Consumer Welfare,” (in progress).
Programming: Matlab, Stata, Mathematica, Java, Python.
Languages: English (native), French (read).
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
Research Assistant to Prof Sean Nicholson (Cornell University), May 2005 - July 2007.
Research Assistant to Prof Christopher Carroll (JHU), summer 2008 & summer 2009.

TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Matthew N. White
Instructor, Math Methods for Economists (JHU MA in Applied Economics), fall 2012.
Instructor, Elements of Macroeconomics, summer 2010 & summer 2011.
Teaching Assistant, Sports Economics, spring 2012.
Teaching Assistant, Elements of Macroeconomics, fall 2008-2011 (head TA 2009-2011).
Teaching Assistant, Economics of Discrimination, spring 2010-2011.
Teaching Assistant, Microeconomic Theory (undergraduate), spring 2009.
Teaching Assistant, Investments & Portfolio Management, spring 2008.
DISTINCTIONS
Patricia & Eugenio Award 2009 (performance in first two years of PhD).
Joel & Monia Dean Award 2010 (undergraduate teaching).
Bruce Hamilton Award 2011 (seminar performance).
Carl Christ Fellowship 2012 (dissertation).
FELLOWSHIPS
Department Fellowship, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 2007 - 2012.
Carl Christ Fellowship, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 2012 - 2013.
REFERENCES
Professor Hülya K.K. Eraslan, Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: eraslan@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-6118
Professor Christopher D. Carroll, Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: ccaroll@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7602
Professor Robert A. Moffitt, Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: moffitt@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7611
Professor Sean Nicholson, Cornell University
e-mail: sn243@cornell.edu, Phone: (607) 254-6498

Essays on Health Care Markets
Matthew N. White
1 An Ounce of Prevention at Half Price: Evaluating a Subsidy on Health
Investments (job market paper)
Thispaperexamineshowinvestmentsinhealth, throughpreventiveorcurativecare, dynamically
affect health care purchasing behavior among the retired population. In particular,
what would be the effects of lowering the price of health investments for some individuals?
I estimate a structural model of the “retired life cycle” using data from the Health and
Retirement Study on single retired Americans. I then conduct policy counterfactuals to
ascertain the effect of a subsidy on preventive care on health outcomes, the total demand
for health care, and public expenditures on health care for the elderly. A subsidy targeted
at healthy, lower income individuals improves longevity by 0.76 months at a public cost of
$760 per capita. However, the subsidy does not reduce total demand for health care over
the remaining lifetime of the targeted population.
2 The Role of Medical Inflation in Demand for Health Care (in progress)
This paper uses the estimated model from the previous chapter to investigate the conflicting
role of medical inflation in demand for health care among the elderly. The expectation of
higher medical inflation should increase current purchases of health care as individuals seek
to stay healthy and avoid large future costs. However, as time passes and higher medical
pricesactuallyoccur, healthcarepurchasesshoulddecreasethroughapriceeffect. Iseparate
these effects by simulating an environment where medical inflation is high but individuals
do not adapt their beliefs, and an environment where individuals believe inflation will
be high but it continues normally. I further separate three ways medical inflation affects
government health care expenditures for the elderly: direct costs higher unit price, indirect
savings through lower health investment reimbursements, and indirect costs through worse
population health over time.
3 Competition Among Medical Insurers and Consumer Welfare (in progress)
Some recent proposals for health care reform rely on increased competition among insurers
(e.g. through interstate sales of policies) to decrease health care and insurance prices. This
paper presents a model to analyze price and competition in a three-way market among
patients (consumers), medical providers, and health insurers. While insurers compete with
each other for customers, they also act as a collective bargaining agent on behalf of patients
in determining the equilibrium price of health care with providers. The entry of an additional
insurer thus has contradictory effects on prices and consumer welfare, reducing prices
through competition but increasing them through reduced bargaining power of incumbent
insurers. The model is used to demonstrate that the welfare of patients is not necessarily
increasing in the number of insurers.

Johns Hopkins University
3400 N. Charles St
Department of Economics
Baltimore MD 21218 USA
http://econ.jhu.edu/directory/xiaochen-xu/
XIAOCHEN XU
EDUCATION
Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, June 2013 (expected)
Dissertation: Essays on College Transfer in U.S. and Children’s Welfare in China
Advisors: Robert Moffitt (primary), Yingyao Hu
M.A. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 2010
M.Sc. in Statistics and Actuarial Science, the University of Hong Kong, 2008
B. Sc. in Actuarial Science (First-Class Honors), University of Calgary, 2006
Phone: (607) 342-8868
Email: xxu18@jhu.edu
Citizenship: China
Visa Status: F-1
RESEARCH INTERESTS
Labor economics, Public economics, Health economics, Economics of education, Applied econometrics
TEACHING INTERESTS
Labor economics, Public Economics, Health economics, Applied econometrics, Economics of education,
Microeconomics
DISSERTATION
“The Determinants and Consequences of College Transfer”, Job market paper
“The Impact of Labor Migration on Children’s Health: Evidence from Rural China” (with Xi Yang),
in progress
“The Impact of a Ban on Sex-selective Abortion on the Nutrient Intakes and Care of Girls in China:
Evidence from a Policy Change”, in progress
RESEARCH PAPERS & PUBLICATIONS
”A Study on the Mutual Causation of Suicide Reporting and Suicide Incidences” (with Simon S.M.
Kwok, Paul S F Yip, Feng Chen and Ying-Yeh Chen), Journal of Affective Disorders, forthcoming
2012
”Robustness of Maximum Likelihood and Restricted Maximum Likelihood in Credibility Models”
(with Wing Kam Fung), Variance, 2(2010), pp. 66-80
”Estimation of structural parameters in crossed classification credibility model using linear mixed
models” (with Prof. Wing Kam Fung), Compstat 2008: Proceedings
”A simple implementation of the regression model to credibility models with correlated error structure
using R language” (with Prof. Wing Kam Fung), completed, 2007
”Impulsive Stabilization for Systems of Linear Differential and Difference Equations” (with Dr.
Elena Braverman), completed, 2005
1

ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant to Prof. David M. Bishai, Health Economics, Fall 2012
Teaching Assistant to Prof. Joseph E. Harrington, Game Theory, Spring 2012
Teaching Assistant to Prof. James Lake, Econometrics, Fall 2011
Teaching Assistant to Prof. Yingyao Hu, Econometrics, Spring 2011
Teaching Assistant to Prof. Jonathan Wright, Statistical Inference, Fall 2010
Teaching Assistant to Prof. M. Ali Khan, Mathematical Methods in Economics, Spring 2010
Teaching Assistant to Prof. Tiemen Woutersen, Econometrics, Fall 2009
Teaching Assistant to Prof. Barbara M. Morgan, Economics of Discrimination, Spring 2009
Research Assistant to Prof. Elena Braverman, May 2005-August 2005
FELLOWSHIP AND AWARDS
Graduate Fellowship, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University - 2008 to present.
Graduate Fellowship, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, the University of Hong Kong
- 2006 to 2008.
MIGOTTI-MCCOMBE Award, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary.
Undergraduate Merit Award, University of Calgary.
Actuarial Examination Prize, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary.
MISC. INFO
Programming: R, S+, C++, SAS, MATLAB, L ATEX, Microsoft Office
Languages: Chinese (native), English (fluent), Cantonese (fluent)
REFERENCES
Professor Robert Moffitt (Primary advisor)
Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
Email: moffitt@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7611
Professor Yingyao Hu
Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
Email: yhu@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7610
Professor Tiemen Woutersen (Teaching)
Department of Economics, University of Arizona
Email: woutersen@email.arizona.edu, Phone: (520) 621-4281
2

Essays on College Transfer in U.S. and Children’s Welfare in
China
Xiaochen Xu
The Determinants and Consequences of College Transfer (Job Market Paper)
Idevelopand estimateatwo-periodability-learningstructuralmodeltoanalyzethedeterminants
and consequences of college transfer. Students make college entry and transfer
decisions under different financial constraints and uncertainty about their abilities. In
period 1, students choose between community colleges and universities, and in period 2,
they make transfer decisions. I estimate the structural parameters of the model using
data from the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:04/09), with
simulated maximum likelihood. I further examine the extent to which the effectiveness
of the transfer function of community colleges can be improved with three counterfactual
experiments. They included increasing university tuition costs, eliminating transfer costs,
and increasing academic preparedness. The experiments suggest that transfer costs are
the main barrier to college transfer.
The Impact of Labor Migration on Children’s Health: Evidence from Rural
China (in progress)
Migration, which frequently results in family separations, is widely known as one of the
mainwaysofalleviatingpovertyindevelopingcountries. ThisstudyusestheChinaHealth
and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) to identify the impact of parents’ migration on children’s
health outcomes in rural China. The measurements of children’s health outcomes are
height, weight, weight-for-height, height-for-age Z-score, and nutrient intake (consumption
of calories and protein). To identify the effect of changes in parental migration on
changes in child outcomes, I instrument changes in migration status with county level
historical average migration rates.
The Impact of a Ban on Sex-selective Abortion on the Nutrient Intakes and
Care of Girls in China: Evidence from a Policy Change (in progress)
Due to the preference for boys, the sex ratio at birth (between male and female births) in
mainland China reached 117:100 in the year 2000. In order to normalize the sex ratio, the
government began an action plan consisting of ten policies in year 2005, which outlawed
sex-selective abortion. Under the government policy, the number of unwanted girls has
increased, causing more cases of infanticide, and slower death by long term neglect and
withholding of resources for girls. Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS),
I analyze the possible impact on girls’ welfare by these government actions in China. The
welfare is analyzed based on the nutrient intake (consumption of calories and protein), the
length of breastfeeding, and the number of nursing hours that parents spend on children
weekly. Due to data limitation, this study focuses only on children under age 3.
1

Department of Economics
Johns Hopkins University
3400 N. Charles St.
Baltimore, MD 21218
Phone: (410) 516-7601
Wei Zhao
EDUCATION
Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, June 2013 (expected)
116 W. University Pkwy. Apt. 1209
Baltimore, MD 21210
Cell: (757) 968-1313
E-mail: weizhao@jhu.edu
Advisors: Joseph E. Harrington, Jr. (co-primary), Przemyslaw Jeziorski (co-primary), Richard Spady
Dissertation: Essays on Mergers, Collusion, and Innovation
Institute on Computational Economics, University of Chicago, Summer 2010
M.A. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 2009
M.A. in Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, Columbia University, 2007
B.A. in Finance, Renmin University of China, 2005
RESEARCH INTERESTS
Industrial Organization, Microeconometrics, Game Theory and Microeconomic Theory
TEACHING INTERESTS
Industrial Organization, Econometrics, Game Theory, Microeconomics, Mathematical Methods for
Economists, Numerical Methods in Economics
RESEARCH PAPERS
“Estimating Dynamic Merger Efficiencies with an Application to the 1997 Boeing-McDonnell Douglas
Merger”, Job market paper.
“Signaling and Tacit Collusion in an Infinitely Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma” (with Joseph E. Harrington,
Jr.), Mathematical Social Sciences, 64(2012) 277-289.
“How Much is Access to Employer-Provided Health Insurance Worth? Household Joint Decision-
Making in a Job-Search Framework” (with Yiyang Li), in progress.
“Vertical Relation and Endogenous Innovation in a Dynamic Stochastic Game”, in progress.
“Understanding Bidders’ Belief and Rationality in Dynamic Auctions: Evidence from Penny Auctions”
(with Yonghong An), in progress.
ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE
Instructor, M.A. in Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, Mathematical Methods for
Economists (Online), Summer 2011 - Spring 2013
Research Assistant to Prof. Stephen Shore, Spring 2008
Research Assistant to Prof. Tiemen Woutersen, Spring 2008
Teaching Assistant to Prof. Louis J. Maccini, Macroeconomic Theory, Fall 2008
Research Assistant to Prof. Yingyao Hu, Spring 2009 - Summer 2010
Teaching Assistant to Prof. Stephen Shore, Microeconomic Theory, Fall 2010
Teaching Assistant to Prof. Greg Duffee, Corporate Finance, Spring 2011
Research Assistant to Prof. Joseph E. Harrington, Jr., Spring 2011
1

Teaching Assistant to Prof. Elena Krasnokutskaya, Industrial Organization, Fall 2011
FELLOWSHIP AND AWARDS
Department Fellowship, Johns Hopkins University, 2008-Present
Travel Grant, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 2010
MISC. INFO
Programming: C++, MATLAB, Stata, AMPL, Mathematica, E-views, L ATEX
Languages: Chinese (native), English (fluent), Japanese(basic)
Citizenship: China (F-1 Visa)
REFERENCES
Professor Joseph E. Harrington, Jr. (Co-primary Advisor)
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Email: harrij@wharton.upenn.edu, Phone: (215) 898-3015
Professor Przemyslaw Jeziorski (Co-primary Advisor)
Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
Email: przemekj@haas.berkeley.edu, Phone: (510) 643-7183
Professor Richard Spady
Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
Email: rspady@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-8237
2

Essays on Mergers, Collusion, and Innovation
Wei Zhao
1 Estimating Dynamic Merger Efficiencies with an Application to the
1997 Boeing-McDonnell Douglas Merger (job market paper)
This paper evaluates the welfare effects of the 1997 merger between Boeing and McDonnell
Douglas in the medium-sized wide-bodied aircraft industry. I develop an empirical model
of multi-product firms, allowing for both learning-by-doing and product innovation in the
dynamicgametoquantifymergerefficiency. Mergerefficiencyfromlearning-by-doingisthen
disentangled from impact of innovation and market power effect. The results show that the
primary benefits from the 1997 Boeing-McDonnell Douglas merger come from accelerated
learning-by-doing. Taking account of all static and dynamic effects, net consumer surplus
is found to have increased by as much as $1.57 billion. In contrast, a static model ignoring
dynamic learning-by-doing and innovation predicts a consumer loss of about $20 billion.
These results show that ignoring dynamic effects can lead to biased results and erroneous
conclusions with regard to the welfare impact of a merger.
2 Signaling and Tacit Collusion in an Infinitely Repeated Prisoners’
Dilemma (with Joseph E. Harrington, Jr.), Mathematical Social Sciences,
64(2012) 277-289
In the context of an infinitely repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma, we explore how cooperation is
initiated when players signal and coordinate through their actions. There are two types of
players - patient and impatient - and a player’s type is private information. An impatient
type is incapable of cooperative play, while if both players are patient types - and this is
common knowledge - then they can cooperate with a grim trigger strategy. We find that the
longer that players have gone without cooperating, the lower is the probability that they’ll
cooperate in the next period. While the probability of cooperation emerging is always
positive, there is a positive probability that cooperation never occurs.
3 Vertical Relation and Endogenous Innovation in a Dynamic Stochastic
Game (in progress)
Motivated by firms expanding to adjacent vertically related markets as has recently occurred
in the markets for smartphone and tablets, I develop an infinite-horizon dynamic
stochastic model to analyze the relationship between innovation and vertical structure in
high-technology industries. The stochastic model serves to examine dynamic interactions
of firm innovation and imitation. In this model, upstream firms decide on investment for
innovation and the degree of compatibility, while downstream firms dynamically choose
their technology suppliers based on realized switching cost. Bargaining power between the
upstream and downstream firms is modeled as a division of the downstream profit. Vertical
integration removes uncertainty about downstream firm commitment for the innovators,
but is also likely to decrease imitation and compatibility as well as encourage downstream
firms to switch (which may facilitate upstream entry). The model provides a framework
for empirical dynamic studies and can be used to analyze the impact of vertical structure,
bargaining power and switching costs on innovation and consumer welfare.

Johns Hopkins University
Department of Economics
3400 N. Charles St.
Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
Phone: (410) 404-3878
EDUCATION
YIZHEN ZHAO
Citizenship: Chinese
U.S. Visa: F-1
Gender: Female
Date of Birth: December 10, 1983
yzhao16@jhu.edu
http://econ.jhu.edu/directory/yizhen-zhao/
Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, expected May 2013.
Primary Advisor: Jonathan Wright
Dissertation: Essays on Real-Time Density Forecasting
M.A. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, May 2010.
Exchange Student, SUNY, College at Old Westbury, Spring, 2006.
B.A. in Economics, The Central University for Nationalities, June 2006.
RESEARCH INTERESTS
Financial Econometrics, Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance,
Financial Risk Management.
DISSERTATION
“Forecasting the Stock Return Distribution Using Macro-Finance Variables”.
Job Market Paper
“Real-Time Density Forecasts of Output and Inflation via Quantile Regression”.
The International Journal of Forecasting: Revise and Resubmit (leading journal).
“High-Frequency Measurement of the Non-Gaussian Macroeconomic Dynamics”.
WORKING EXPERIENCE & ACADEMIC SERVICE
The World Bank, Short-Term Consultant, Jan, 2012 - Sep, 2012.
Referee to Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May, 2012.
PROGRAMMING SKILLS
MATLAB, STATA, SAS, C++, R, Ox, Mathematica, Excel, Bloomberg.
LANGUAGES
Chinese (native), English (fluent), German (beginner), Japanese (beginner).

PUBLICATIONS
Journal Articles
“The Evolutionary Game Illustration of the Global Impacts of European Integration,”
Selected by 36th St. Gallen Wings of Excellence Award, Switzerland, May, 2006.
12 Essays, “New Media”, China International Publishing Group, 2004−2005
Book Chapters
“China Sustainable Development Report”, with D. Yang, et. al., Science Press, 2007.
“National Health Report”, with D. Yang, et. al., Science Press, 2008.
“International Trade of China”, with J. Zhang, et. al., China Machine Press, 2007.
DISTINCTIONS
Fellowship, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 2007–2012.
University Outstanding Graduate Scholarship, Ministry of Education, 2006.
BaoGang Steel National Education Award, BaoGang Foundation, China, 2006.
Excellent Academic Award, The Central University for Nationalities, 2002-2006.
Excellent Student Leader Award, The Central University for Nationalities, 2004.
National English Contest for College Students, Second Place, 2005
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant to Professor Jonathan Wright, Investments, 2009, 2012.
Teaching Assistant to Professor Olivier Jeanne, Global Financial Crisis, 2010.
Teaching AssistanttoProfessorLouisMaccini,Elements of Macroeconomics,2011.
Teaching AssistanttoProfessorBruceHamilton,Elements of Microeconomics,2008.
REFERENCES
Professor Jonathan H. Wright, Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: wrightj@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-5728
Professor Richard Spady, Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: rspady@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7601
Professor Laurence M. Ball, Johns Hopkins University
e-mail: lball@jhu.edu, Phone: (410) 516-7605
Dr. Xiaohui Hou, Senior Economist, World Bank
e-mail: xhou@worldbank.org, Phone: (202) 473-7773

Essays on Real-Time Density Forecasting
Yizhen Zhao
1 Forecasting the Stock Return Distribution Using Macro-Finance Variables
(Job Market Paper)
This paper evaluates combinations of density forecasts for S&P 500 returns. The contribution
of the paper is to use a new set of density forecasts in the combination exercise, including
density forecasts based on quantile regressions using macro-finance variables, along with various
standard EGARCH and stochastic volatility specifications. The combined predictive densities
are constructed to maximize the log predictive likelihood. In all, 30 density forecasting models
areconsideredinanout-of-sampleforecastingexercise. Usingmacro-financevariablesisfoundto
helpsubstantiallyinprediction; thebestforecastsareobtainedwhenall30modelsarecombined.
The proposed density forecasts are also shown to be useful to an investor with a CRRA utility
function who is trying to construct an optimal portfolio, regardless of whether short-sales are
allowed or not. Depending on the investor’s utility function, using the proposed density forecasts
yields a certainty equivalent return that is up to 0.35% per month higher than can be obtained
with the EGARCH model with a fat-tailed specification.
2 Real-Time Density Forecasts of Output and Inflation via Quantile Regression
(International Journal of Forecasting: Revise and Resubmit, Leading
Journal in Forecasting: Impact Factor 1.485, Five-year impact factor 2.450)
Thispapercomparesthedensityforecastingperformanceofquantileregressionsinreal-timewith
that of two conventional density forecast methods, using U.S. inflation and output growth data
from 1959 to 2010. This paper also examines whether augmenting the autoregression with the
first few principal components (factors) from a large dataset is helpful for density forecasting, in
which case, factor selection rules using high dimensional regression are compared. The density
forecasts using quantile regressions are found to be significantly more accurate than the two
conventional density forecasts. Including factors extracted from macroeconomic indicators in
the quantile density forecast also generally improves density forecast accuracy. The Least Angle
Regression is found to be the best method of selecting density forecasting factors.
3 High-Frequency Measurement of the Non-Gaussian Macroeconomic Dynamics
(In Progress)
The unavailability of macroeconomic variables at higher frequency often leads economic analysis
to be conducted at low frequency. However, policy makers, making decisions in real time, always
need accurate and timely estimates of the state of economic activity. This paper uses a non-
Gaussian state-space model to extract high-frequency business conditions from a variety of stock
and flow data observed at mixed frequencies. The model permits non-Gaussian disturbances for
the observation equation and hence can better capture the non-Gaussian shocks to the economy.
The likelihood function is computed by particle filter methods. The distribution of innovations
is approximated by a mixture of normal distributions.